price of gold

Oil rises as China eases Covid rules

Crude prices rallied after China reduced the quarantine time for inbound visitors and as Beijing and Shanghai declared zero COVID cases for the first time in months. ​ China is showing they realize they can’t keep their strict COVID controls. Earlier, Chinese authorities triggered some alarm after noting that the zero-COVID policy could be in place for the next five years. ​ The crude demand outlook is getting a major boost after China cut the mandatory isolation time in half to seven days. ​

The easing of China’s quarantine times could support the idea that Beijing might be getting closer to pivoting away from its zero-COVID policy, but that shift probably can’t happen till closer to the end of the year.

Earlier oil edged higher over expectations Libya would not be able reliably export crude as protests spread and as risk appetite returned to Wall Street.

The supply side of the oil equation should remain supportive for prices eve

Article by Decrypt Media

Dollar’s 2021 Rally – Over or Just Resting?

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 17.12.2021 11:21
With the USD Index suffering a ‘sell the news’ event on Dec. 15, the FOMC’s hawkish Summary of Economic Projections wasn’t enough to uplift investors’ optimism. However, while the dollar day traders performed their usual disappearing act, the greenback’s fundamentals were bolstered by the FOMC’s median projection of three rate hikes in 2022. What’s more, while the USD Index initially dipped below 96 and fell below its rising resistance line (which is now support) on Dec. 16, buyers stepped in, and the USD Index bounced. For context, a short-term correction is possible. However, the important point is that the USD Index is likely on a medium-term path to ~98. And with gold, silver and mining stocks often moving inversely to the U.S. dollar, their optimism may disappear over the next few months. Please see below: For context, I warned that a consolidation was likely overdue by highlighting the USD Index’s overbought RSI (Relative Strength Index) readings with the red arrows above. Conversely, the blue vertical dashed lines above demonstrate how the USD Index often bottoms near the end of each month, and rallies often follow. And while the current consolidation may need some more time to run its course, higher highs should materialize over the medium term. To explain, after the USD Index recorded sharp rallies in June and July, consolidation phases unfolded before the uptrends continued. And while the secondary uprisings occurred at more moderate paces, the USD Index still managed to make new highs. As a result, ~98 should materialize during the winter months. Furthermore, if the forecast proves prescient, the USD Index’s strength will likely usher gold back to its previous 2021 lows. Adding to our confidence (don’t get me wrong, there are no certainties in any market; it’s just that the bullish narrative for the USDX is even more bullish in my view), the USD Index often sizzles in the summer sun and major USDX rallies often start during the middle of the year. Summertime spikes have been mainstays on the USD Index’s historical record and in 2004, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014 and 2018 a retest of the lows (or close to them) occurred before the USD Index began its upward flights (which is exactly what’s happened this time around). Furthermore, profound rallies (marked by the red vertical dashed lines below) followed in 2008, 2011 and 2014. With the current situation mirroring the latter, a small consolidation on the long-term chart is exactly what occurred before the USD Index surged in 2014. Likewise, the USD Index recently bottomed near its 50-week moving average; an identical development occurred in 2014. More importantly, though, with bottoms in the precious metals market often occurring when gold trades in unison with the USD Index (after ceasing to respond to the USD’s rallies with declines), we’re still far away from that milestone in terms of both price and duration. Again, the recent move higher in the USD Index doesn’t necessarily apply in the case of the above rule, as it was not the strength of the USD but the weakness in the euro that has driven it. Likewise, with the USD Index now approaching its long-term rising support line (which is now resistance), a rally above the upward sloping black line above would invalidate the prior breakdown and support a move back above 100. Also, please note that the recent medium-term rally has been calmer than any major upswing witnessed over the last 20 years, where the USD Index’s RSI has hit 70. I marked the recent rally in the RSI with an orange rectangle, and I did the same with the second-least and third-least volatile of the medium-term upswings. The sharp rallies in 2008 and 2014 were of much larger magnitudes. And in those historical analogies, the USD Index continued its surge for some time without suffering any material corrections. As a result, the short-term outlook is more of a coin flip. However, the medium-term outlook remains profoundly bullish, and gold, silver, and mining stocks may resent the USD Index’s forthcoming uprising. Just as the USD Index took a breather before its massive rally in 2014, it seems that we saw the same recently. This means that predicting higher gold prices (or the ones of silver) here is likely not a good idea. Continuing the theme, the eye in the sky doesn’t lie. And with the USDX’s long-term breakout clearly visible, the wind remains at the dollar’s back. Furthermore, dollar bears often miss the forest through the trees: with the USD Index’s long-term breakout gaining steam, the implications of the chart below are profound. And while very few analysts cite the material impact (when was the last time you saw the USDX chart starting in 1985 anywhere else?), the USD Index has been sending bullish signals for years. Please see below: The bottom line? With my initial 2021 target of 94.5 already hit, the ~98 target is likely to be reached over the medium term (and perhaps quite soon), mind, though: we’re not bullish on the greenback because of the U.S.’ absolute outperformance. It’s because the region is fundamentally outperforming the Eurozone, the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, and the relative performance is what really matters. In conclusion, gold, silver and mining stocks pulled rabbits out of their hats on Dec. 16. However, as 2021 has demonstrated, their daily tricks often lose their allure fairly quickly. Moreover, while it’s uncommon for magicians to reveal their secrets, the precious metals tip their hands time and time again. As a result, the USD Index’s daily weakness was likely a corrective downswing, while the precious metals daily strength was likely a corrective upswing. And with a reversal of fortunes likely to occur over the medium term, gold, silver and mining stocks may lose their magic touch. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
"Gold is in the 1960s"

"Gold is in the 1960s"

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 31.12.2021 14:05
  Although your calendar may say otherwise, gold is in the 1960s. The question is whether we will move into the 1970s or speed-run to the mid-2010s. Did you go overboard with your time travel and lose track of time? Probably not, but just in case, I assure you that the current year is 2021. To be 100% sure, I fact-checked it on a dedicated webpage for time-travelers. However, the authority of science is being questioned, and there are people who say that, from a macroeconomic point of view, we are approaching the 1970s, or at least the 1960s. There are also voices saying that the gold market is replaying 2012-2013. Although appearances point to 2021, let’s investigate what year we really live in. The similarities with the 1970s are obvious. Just like then, we have high inflation, large fiscal deficits (see the chart below), and easy, erroneous monetary policy. Fifty years ago, the Fed blamed inflation on exogenous shocks and considered inflation to be transitory too. The new monetary regime adopted by the US central bank in 2020 also takes us back to the 70s and the mistaken belief that the economy cannot overheat, so the Fed can let inflation run above the target for a while in order to boost employment. The parallels extend beyond price pressure. The withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan reminded many of the fall of Saigon. The world is facing an energy crisis right now, another feature of the 1970s. If we really repeat those years, gold bulls should be happy, as the yellow metal rallied from $35 to $850, surging more than 2300% back in that decade (see the chart below). However, there is one problem with this narrative. In the 1970s, we experienced stagflation, i.e., a simultaneous occurrence of high inflation and economic stagnation with a rising unemployment rate. Currently, although we face strong upward price pressure, we enjoy economic expansion and declining unemployment, as the chart below shows. Indeed, the monthly unemployment rate decreased from 14.8% in April 2020 to 4.2% in November 2021. The current macroeconomic situation, characterized by inflation without stagnation part, is reminiscent of the 1960s, a decade marked by rising inflation and rapid GDP growth. As the chart below shows, the CPI annual rate reached a local maximum of 6.4% in February 1970, similar to the current inflation level. Apparently, we are replaying the 1960s right now rather than the 1970s. So far, growth is slowing down, but we are far from stagnation territory. There is no discussion on this. My point was always that the Fed’s actions could bring us to the 1970s, or that complacency about inflation is increasing the risk of de-anchoring inflation expectations and the materialization of a stagflationary scenario. In the 1960s, the price of gold was still fixed, so historical analysis is impossible. However, it seems that gold won’t start to rally until we see some signs of stagnation or an economic crisis, and markets begin to worry about recession. Given that the current economic expansion looks intact, the yellow metal is likely to struggle at least by mid-2022 (unless supply disruptions and energy crisis intensify significantly, wreaking havoc). Do we have to go back that far in time, though? Maybe the 2020 peak in gold prices was like the 2011 peak and we are now somewhere in 2012-2013, on the eve of a great downward move in the gold market? Some similarities cannot be denied: the economy is recovering from a recession, while the Fed is tightening its monetary policy, and gold shows weakness with its inability to surpass $1,800. So, some concerns are warranted. I pointed out a long time ago the threat of an upward move in the real interest rates (as they are at record low levels), which could sink the precious metals market. However, there are two key differences compared to the 2012-2013 period. First, inflation is much higher and it’s still accelerating, while ten years ago there was disinflation. This distinction should support gold prices. The peak in the inflation rate could be a dangerous time for gold, as the disinflationary era would raise interest rates, putting downward pressure on the yellow metal. Second, the prospects of the Fed’s tightening cycle are probably already priced in. In other words, the next “taper tantrum” is not likely to happen. It implies that a sudden spike in the interest rates similar to that of 2013 (see the chart below) shouldn’t repeat now. Hence, the answer to the question “what year is it?” should be that we are somewhere in the 1960s and we can move later into the 1970s if high inflation stays with us and stagnation sets in or if the next crisis hits. However, we can leap right into the 2010s if inflation peaks soon and the hawkish Fed triggers a jump in bond yields. It’s also possible that we will see a temporary disinflation before the second wave of elevated inflation. So, gold could continue its struggle for a while before we see another rally. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
Does gold in the beginning of 2022 remind us year 2021? What about inflation this year?

Does gold in the beginning of 2022 remind us year 2021? What about inflation this year?

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 04.01.2022 13:14
The start of 2021 wasn’t successful for gold: after a few days of rally, the yellow metal entered a bearish trend. 2022 looks uncomfortably similar. So far, so good – the first three days of 2022 didn’t bring a new catastrophe. It’s probably just the calm before the storm, but the new year started well. Even the price of gold has risen! As the chart below shows, the yellow metal managed to jump above the key level of $1,800 at the very end of 2021, but it still maintains its position (at least as of early January 3, 2022). It reminds me of the beginning of 2021. Gold also started last year with a bang, only to plunge later. Its price increased 3.5% during the first week of the year, reaching $1,957, and then began its big downward move. As the chart below shows, the yellow metal plunged below $1,700 at the very end of March. Hence, although January is historically a good month for gold, it might be too early to celebrate, and investors should exercise caution. However, luckily for gold bulls, there is one significant difference between 2021 and 2022. Last year, there were Georgia runoffs and Democrats took over both the White House and the full Congress (the House and the Senate). That was when the blue wave plunged the yellow metal. This year should be politically calmer for the US (so, we don’t count the odds of Russia invading Ukraine and China attacking Taiwan), but the major threat to the gold market remains the same: a rise in the real interest rates. In January 2021, it was the blue wave that triggered a rebound in rates, but it may be induced by many more factors in the future. It could be the development of a new cure against coronavirus and the end of the pandemic, a more hawkish Fed, or a decline in inflation. The spread of the Omicron variant keeps worries alive. After all, as the chart below shows, the 7-day rolling average of COVID-19 cases in the United States has hit a record high of about 405,000. When we are completely back to normalcy, risk appetite and bond yields may increase. Another risk for gold is the stabilization of inflation and even subsequent disinflation. As the chart below shows, we got a one-off boost in the money supply, so inflation is likely to peak this year. Inflation expectations should ease then, and real interest rates may rebound in such a scenario. What gives me some comfort here is that the pace of money supply growth hasn’t returned to the pre-pandemic level yet, but it stays at an elevated level (although much below the peak). It should support high inflation this year. Moreover, the Fed is likely to remain behind the curve and the peak in inflation may only strengthen the dovish camp within the FOMC (although investors should remember that the composition of the voting members of the Committee has become more hawkish in 2022).   Implications for Gold What does it all imply for the gold market? Will the yellow metal resume its long-term bullish trend in 2022? Well, this is what a majority of investors that took part in Kitco News’ annual outlook survey believe. Of nearly 3,000 retail investors, 54% said they see gold prices above $2,000 by the end of the year. This is also in line with Goldman Sachs’ call for gold in 2022. Other forecasters see gold prices trading in a range between $1,800 and $2,000. It’s certainly a possible scenario. After all, much of the Fed’s tightening cycle has already been priced in; and the last time gold bottomed was in December 2015, just around the first hike in the federal funds rate after the Great Recession. However, I expect more volatile trading with strong downside potential. As a reminder, my educated guess is that gold may plunge at some point amid a rebound in bond yields, but will rise later as worries about the next economic crisis accumulate. Indeed, it’s quite funny, but I haven’t even finished this article, and the price of gold has already started to slide amid rising US dollar index and Treasury yields, in line with my warnings from the beginning of this text. This is how I became a prophet. Now I can see that as soon as you finish reading this article you will continue surfing the internet! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Fed Hawks Grow Stronger. Will Gold Stand Its Ground?

Fed Hawks Grow Stronger. Will Gold Stand Its Ground?

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 06.01.2022 16:43
  2022 may be the year of Fed hawks. After tapering, they may hike rates and then start quantitative tightening. Will they tear gold apart? During the Battle of the Black Gate in the War of the Ring, Pippin : “The eagles are coming!”. It was a sign of hope for all those fighting with Sauron. Now, I could exclaim that hawks are coming, but that wouldn’t necessarily give hope to anyone fighting the bearish trends in the gold market. Yesterday (January 5, 2022), the FOMC published the minutes from its last meeting, held in mid-December. Although the publication doesn’t reveal any revolutions in US monetary policy, it strengthens the hawkish rhetoric of the Fed. Why? First, the FOMC participants acknowledged that inflation readings had been higher, more persistent, and widespread than previously anticipated. For instance, they pointed to the fact that the trimmed mean PCE inflation rate, which trims the most extreme readings and is calculated by the Dallas Fed, had reached 2.81% in November 2021, the highest level since mid-1992, as the chart below shows. It indicates that inflation is not limited to a few categories but has a broad-based character. The Committee members also noted several factors that could support strong inflationary pressure this year. They mentioned rising housing costs and rents, more widespread wage growth driven by labor shortages, and more prolonged global supply-side frictions, which could be exacerbated by the emergence of the Omicron variant; as well as easier passing on higher costs of labor and material to customers. In particular, supply chain bottlenecks and labor shortages could likely last longer and be more widespread than previously thought, which could limit businesses’ ability to address strong demand. Second, the FOMC admitted that the US labor market could be tighter than previously thought. They judged that it could reach maximum employment very soon, or that it had largely achieved it, as indicated by near-record rates of quits and job vacancies, labor shortages, and an acceleration in wage growth: Many participants judged that, if the current pace of improvement continued, labor markets would fast approach maximum employment. Several participants remarked that they viewed labor market conditions as already largely consistent with maximum employment. The consequence of higher inflation and a tighter labor market would be, of course, a more hawkish monetary policy. Although the central bankers didn’t discuss the appropriate number of interest rate hikes, they agreed that they should raise the federal funds rate sooner or faster: Participants generally noted that, given their individual outlooks for the economy, the labor market, and inflation, it may become warranted to increase the federal funds rate sooner or at a faster pace than participants had earlier anticipated. Additionally, Fed officials also discussed quantitative tightening. They generally agreed that – given fast economic growth, a strong labor market, high inflation, and bigger Fed assets – the balance sheet runoff should start closer to the policy rate liftoff and be faster than in the previous normalization episode: Almost all participants agreed that it would likely be appropriate to initiate balance sheet runoff at some point after the first increase in the target range for the federal funds rate. However, participants judged that the appropriate timing of balance sheet runoff would likely be closer to that of policy rate liftoff than in the Committee's previous experience. They noted that current conditions included a stronger economic outlook, higher inflation, and a larger balance sheet and thus could warrant a potentially faster pace of policy rate normalization.   Implications for Gold What do the recent FOMC minutes imply for the gold market? Well, referring once more to the Lord of the Rings, they are more like the Nazgûl that wreak despair rather than the Eagles offering hope. They were hawkish – and, thus, negative for gold prices. The minutes revealed that after tapering of quantitative easing, the Fed could also reduce its overall asset holdings to curb high inflation. In December, the US central bank accelerated the pace of tapering and signaled three interest rate increases in 2022. The minutes went even further, signaling a possibility of an earlier and faster rate hike and outright reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet: Some participants also noted that it could be appropriate to begin to reduce the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet relatively soon after beginning to raise the federal funds rate. Some participants judged that a less accommodative future stance of policy would likely be warranted and that the Committee should convey a strong commitment to address elevated inflation pressures. Hence, the price of gold responded accordingly to the FOMC minutes and declined from about $1,825 to $1,810, as the chart below shows. Luckily, there is a silver lining: the drop hasn’t been too big, at least so far. It may indicate that a lot of hawkish news has already been priced into gold, and that sentiment is rather bullish. However, the hawks haven’t probably said the last word yet. Please remember that the composition of the Committee will be more hawkish this year, but also that the mindset is changing among the members. For example, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, one of the Committee’s most dovish members, said this week that the U.S. central bank would have to need to raise interest rates two times this year. Previously, he believed that the federal funds rate could stay at zero until at least 2024. Thus, although inflationary risk may provide support for gold, the yellow metal may find itself under hawkish fire in the upcoming weeks. We will see whether it will stand its ground, like the soldiers of Gondor. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Gold Chart And Silver Chart Look Quite Similar We Might Say...

Gold Chart And Silver Chart Look Quite Similar We Might Say...

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 19.01.2022 15:10
  While the USD show is gaining applause, silver has decided to present its repertoire too. Was its rally just a magic trick or a good omen for gold? Bond yields soared once again, just as I’ve been expecting them to for many months now. The reaction in some markets was as expected (the USD Index soared), but in some, it was perplexing. Gold moved lower a little, miners declined a bit more, and silver… rallied. Who’s faking it? Well, perhaps nobody is. Let’s look at the yields’ movement first. The 10-year bond yields have just moved to new yearly highs and are also above their 2021 highs. This happened just after they moved back to their 50-week moving average (marked in blue). For a long time, I’ve been writing that the 2013 performance is likely to be repeated also in this market, and that’s exactly what is taking place right now. Bond yields are doing what they did back then. If history continues to rhyme, we can expect bond yields to rally further, the USD Index to gain, and we can predict gold at lower prices. Speaking of the USD Index, let’s take a look at what it did yesterday. It soared over 0.5 index points, which was the largest daily increase so far this year. This happened after the USD Index moved to a combination of powerful support levels: the rising medium-term support line and the late-2020 high. The tiny attempts to move below those levels were quickly invalidated, and the USD Index was likely to rally back up; and so it did. What’s next? The uptrend was not broken, so it’s likely to continue. In other words, the USD Index’s rally is likely to continue, and this, in turn, is likely to trigger declines across the precious metals sector. Gold didn’t react with a significant decline yesterday – just a moderate/small one – which some might view as bullish. I’d say that it’s rather neutral. The rally above the 2021 highs in bond yields might have come as a shock to many investors, and they might not have been sure how to react or what to make of it. It might also have been the “buy the rumor, sell the fact” type of reaction. Either way, it seems to me that we’ll have to wait a few days and see how it plays out once the dust settles. The volume that we saw yesterday was huge. After a period of relatively average volume, we saw this huge volume spike. I marked the previous cases with red arrows. In those cases, such volume accompanied gold’s sizable declines. This time, the volume spike accompanied a $4.10 decline, which might appear perplexing. Fortunately, gold is not the only market that we can analyze, and – as it’s often the case – context provides us with details that help to make sense of what really happened. Let’s check the key supplemental factor – silver’s price action. While gold declined a bit, silver soared over $0.5! The volume that accompanied this sizable daily upswing was the biggest that we’ve seen so far this year too. The latter provides additional confirmation of the importance of yesterday’s session. What was it that happened yesterday that was so important? Silver outperformed gold on a very short-term basis! This is profoundly important, because that’s what has been accompanying gold’s, silver’s, and mining stocks’ tops for many years. Knowing to pay attention to even small signs of silver’s outperformance is one of the useful gold trading tips, and the extent of the outperformance is what determines the importance of the signal (and its bearishness). The extent was huge yesterday, so the implications are very bearish. Yes, silver moved to new yearly highs as well, but silver is known for its fake breakouts (“fakeouts”), which usually happen without analogous moves in gold and mining stocks. Since neither gold nor miners moved to new yearly highs yesterday, it seems that silver “faked out” once again. Silver is up in today’s pre-market trading, and gold is up only slightly, but the latter is not even close to moving to new 2022 highs. The GDX ETF is actually down in today’s London trading (at the moment of writing these words). Speaking of mining stocks, let’s take a look at what happened in them yesterday. In short, they declined – by over 1%, which is about five times more than gold. Since silver outperformed gold, while gold miners underperformed it, the implications for the precious metals sector are bearish. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Many Factors to Affect XAU This Year. What About The Past?

Many Factors to Affect XAU This Year. What About The Past?

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 28.01.2022 10:38
  Gold’s fate in 2021 will be determined mainly by inflation and the Fed’s reaction to it. In the epic struggle between chaos and order, chaos has an easier task, as there is usually only one proper method to do a job – the job that you can screw up in many ways. Thus, although economists see a strong economic expansion with cooling prices and normalization in monetary policies in 2022, many things could go wrong. The Omicron strain of coronavirus or its new variants could become more contagious and deadly, pushing the world into the Great Lockdown again. The real estate crisis in China could lead the country into recession, with serious economic consequences for the global economy. Oh, by the way, we could see an escalation between China and Taiwan, or between China and the US, especially after the recent test of hypersonic missiles by the former country. Having said that, I believe that the major forces affecting the gold market in 2022 will be – similarly to last year’s – inflation and the Fed’s response to it. Considering things in isolation, high inflation should be supportive of gold prices. The problem here is that gold prefers high and rising inflation. Although the inflation rate should continue its upward move for a while, it’s likely to peak this year. Indeed, based on very simple monetarist reasoning, I expect the peak to be somewhere in the first quarter of 2022. This is because the lag between the acceleration in money supply growth (March 2020) and CPI growth (March 2021) was a year. The peak in the former occurred in February 2021, as the chart below shows. You can do the math (by the way, this is the exercise that turned out to be too difficult for Jerome Powell and his “smart” colleagues from the Fed). This is – as I’ve said – very uncomplicated thinking that assumes the stability of the lag between monetary impulses and price reactions. However, given the Fed’s passive reaction to inflation and the fact that the pace of money supply growth didn’t return to the pre-pandemic level, but stayed at twice as high, the peak in inflation may occur later. In other words, more persistent inflation is the major risk for the economy that many economists still downplay. The consensus expectation is that inflation returns to a level close to the Fed’s target by the end of the year. For 2021, the forecasts were similar. Instead, inflation has risen to about 7%. Thus, never underestimate the power of the inflation dragon, especially if the beast is left unchecked! As everyone knows, dragons love gold – and this feeling is mutual. The Saxo Bank, in its annual “Outrageous Predictions”, sees the potential for US consumer prices to rise 15% in 2022, as “companies bid up wages in an effort to find willing and qualified workers, triggering a wage-price spiral unlike anything seen since the 1970’s”. Actually, given the fact that millions of Americans left the labor market – which the Fed doesn’t understand and still expects that they will come back – this prediction is not as extreme as one could expect. I still hope that inflationary pressure will moderate this year, but I’m afraid that the fall may not be substantial. On the other hand, we have the Fed with its hawkish rhetoric and tapering of quantitative easing. The US central bank is expected to start a tightening cycle, hiking the federal funds rate at least twice this year. It doesn’t sound good for gold, does it? A hawkish Fed implies a stronger greenback and rising real interest rates, which is negative for the yellow metal. As the chart below shows, the normalization of monetary policy after the Great Recession, with the infamous “taper tantrum”, was very supportive of the US dollar but lethal for gold. However, the price of gold bottomed in December 2015, exactly when the Fed hiked the interest rates for the first time after the global financial crisis. Markets are always future-oriented, so they often react more to expected rather than actual events. Another thing is that the Fed’s tightening cycle of 2015-2018 was dovish and the federal funds rate (and the Fed’s balance sheet) never returned to pre-crisis levels. The same applies to the current situation: despite all the hawkish reactions, the Fed is terribly behind the curve. Last but not least, history teaches us that a tightening Fed spells trouble for markets. As a reminder, the last tightening cycle led to the reversal of the yield curve in 2019 and the repo crisis, which forced the US central bank to cut interest rates, even before anyone has heard of covid-19. Hence, the Fed is in a very difficult situation. It either stays behind the curve, which risks letting inflation get out of control, or tightens its monetary policy in a decisive manner, just like Paul Volcker did in the 1980s, which risks a correction of already-elevated asset prices and the next economic crisis. Such expectations have boosted gold prices since December 2015, and they could support the yellow metal today as well. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
Price Of Gold Update By GoldViewFX

How the Fed Will Affect Gold? Let's Take A Look Back...

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 04.02.2022 14:47
  Beware, the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy could lift real interest rates! For gold, this poses a risk of prices wildly rolling down. The first FOMC meeting in 2022 is behind us. What can we expect from the US central bank this year and how will it affect the price of gold? Well, this year’s episode of Fed Street will be sponsored by the letter “T”, which stands for “tightening”. It will consist of three elements. First, quantitative easing tapering. The asset purchases are going to end by early March. To be clear, during tapering, the Fed is still buying securities, so it remains accommodative, but less and less. Tapering has been very gradual and well-telegraphed to the markets, so it’s probably already priced in gold. Thus, the infamous taper tantrum shouldn’t replay. Second, quantitative tightening. Soon after the end of asset purchases, the Fed will begin shrinking its mammoth balance sheet. As the chart below shows, it has more than doubled since the start of the pandemic, reaching about $9 trillion, or about 36% of the country’s GDP. It’s so gigantic that even Powell admitted during his January press conference that “the balance sheet is substantially larger than it needs to be.” Captain Obvious attacked again! In contrast to tapering, which just reduces additions to the Fed’s holdings, quantitative tightening will shrink the balance sheet. How much? It’s hard to say. Last time, during QT from 2017 to 2019, the Fed started unloading $10 billion in assets per month, gradually lifting the cap to $50 billion. Given that inflation is now much higher, and the Fed has greater confidence in the economic recovery, the scale of reduction would probably be higher. The QT will create upward pressure on interest rates, which could be negative for the gold market. However, QT will be a very gradual and orderly process. Instead of selling assets directly, the US central bank will stop reinvestment of proceeds as securities run off. As we can read in “Principles for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet”, The Committee intends to reduce the Federal Reserve's securities holdings over time in a predictable manner primarily by adjusting the amounts reinvested of principal payments received from securities held in the System Open Market Account. What’s more, the previous case of QT wasn’t detrimental to gold, as the chart below shows. The price of gold started to rally in late 2018 and especially later in mid-2019. Third, the hiking cycle. In March, the Fed is going to start increasing the federal funds rate. According to the financial markets, the US central bank will enact five interest rate hikes this year, raising the federal funds rate to the range of 1.25-1.50%. Now, there are two narratives about American monetary policy in 2022. According to the first, we are witnessing a hawkish revolution within the Fed, as it would shift its monetary stance in a relatively short time. The central bank will “double tighten” (i.e., it will shrink its balance sheet at the same time as hiking rates), and it will do it in a much more aggressive way than after the Great Recession. Such decisive moves will significantly raise the bond yields, which will hit gold prices. However, in this scenario, the Fed’s aggressive actions will eventually lead to the inversion of the yield curve and later to recession, which should support the precious metals market. On the other hand, some analysts point out that central bankers are all talk and – given their dovish bias – act less aggressively than they promise, chickening out in the face of the first stock market turbulence. They also claim that all the Fed’s actions won’t be enough to combat inflation and that monetary conditions will remain relatively loose. For example, Stephen Roach argues that “the Fed is so far behind [the curve] that it can’t even see the curve.” Indeed, the real federal funds rate is deeply negative (around -7%), as the chart below shows; and even if inflation moderates to 3.5% while the Fed conducts four hikes, it will remain well below zero (about -2%), providing some support for gold prices. Which narrative is correct? Well, there are grains of truth in both of them. However, I would like to remind you that what really matters for the markets is the change or direction, not the level of a variable. Hence, the fact that real interest rates are to stay extremely low doesn’t guarantee that gold prices won’t decline in a response to the hiking cycle. Actually, as the chart above shows, the upward reversal in the real interest rates usually plunges gold prices. Given that real rates are at a record low, a normalization is still ahead of us. Hence, unless inflation continues to rise, bond yields are likely to move up, while gold – to move down. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
Price Of Gold Update By GoldViewFX

Price Of Gold Goes Up! Heading To Two Thousand Dollars?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 15.02.2022 10:07
Since the end of last week, the price of gold has risen by more than 3%. With a high of $1879, it was temporarily rose to highs since last June. Biden's warning that Russia could invade Ukraine "at any moment" triggered a broad sell-off in Europe and several emerging markets and tangentially affected the US equity market. Recent events have brought back interest in assets that have benefited from decades of tension: gold has risen as insurance against currency destabilisation, and oil has risen on fears of a surge in demand and a shortage of supply. Geopolitics give a shaky ground behind this growth, so investors should be wary of joining gold's rise. It is impossible to predict whether the next move will escalate or de-escalate. Now, there are far more signs that the peak of tension is behind us, yet gold continues to gain today. Likely, the fundamental demand for gold is now driven by a desire to preserve the purchasing value of capital amid inflation and ongoing price shocks across a range of commodities. Also, tech analysis is now on the side of the bulls. A trend of higher local lows has formed since the end of September, with the last anchor point in late January. In addition, the 50-day moving average is again above the 200-day moving average, giving a bullish "golden cross" signal. This signal coincided with a solid upward momentum on Friday, strengthening the bullish signal. In January, the former retracement resistance line became support, indicating a break in the trend. If gold stays above $1865 - the area of the November peaks- despite the reduction of the geopolitical premium - we can speak of a bullish momentum development. In this case, the nearest target of this impulse will be the area of $1900-1910. In general, we can say that the long period of correction and sluggish dynamics of gold is over, and then its price can move from one local top to another, potentially exceeding $2000 by August.
Fat or Flat: Gold Price in 2022

Fat or Flat: Gold Price in 2022

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 15.02.2022 17:10
  Analysts' 2022 forecasts for the gold market are not overwhelmingly enthusiastic – they see it flat. However, maybe the opposite should be expected. The LBMA has recently published its annual precious metals forecast survey. In general, the report is neutral about gold in 2022. On average, the analysts forecast gold prices to be broadly flat this year compared to the year. The average gold price in 2021 was $1,799, and it is expected to rise merely $3 to $1,802. How boring! However, as the table below shows, the forecasts for other precious metals are much more bearish, especially for palladium. The headline numbers are the averages of 34 analysts’ forecasts. The greatest bears see the average price of gold as low as $1.630, while the lowest low – at $1,500. Meanwhile, the biggest bulls expect the average price of gold to be $1,965, while the highest high is expected to be $2.280. The three most important drivers of precious metals prices’ performance this year are the Fed’s monetary policy, inflation, and equity market performance. This is a huge change compared to last year, when analysts considered geopolitical factors, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the pace of economic recovery to be much more important. I agree this time, of course, as I always believed that macroeconomic factors are more relevant to the long-term trend in the gold market than geopolitical drivers. Generally, the pick-up in inflation, which will keep real interest rates in negative territory, is seen as a tailwind for gold. Some analysts also expect the greenback to depreciate as the global economic recovery gathers steam, which would also be supportive of gold prices. Meanwhile, normalization of monetary policy is considered the greatest headwind for the yellow metal, as the Fed’s tightening cycle will raise the opportunity cost of holding gold. However, the markets have probably already priced the interest rate hikes in, so gold doesn’t have to suffer during the tightening cycle. Last time, the price of gold began to rise after the liftoff of the federal funds rate. The analysts surveyed by the LBMA also doubt the central banks’ ability to raise interest rates as high as needed to crush inflation. Instead, they are expected to stay behind the inflation curve. This is because the forecasted tightening cycle could be too difficult for the asset market and indebted economy to stomach, so it will be moderate and short-lived, just like last time.   Implications for Gold What does the LBMA annual forecast survey predicts for the yellow metal? The report is neutral, probably because gold remains under the influence of opposite forces, which makes forecasting really challenging this year. Gold has been recently in a sideways trend, so it’s somewhat natural to expect simply more of the same, i.e., the flat market. Actually, the pundits always forecast more of the same. For example, the previous edition of the survey was bullish, as 2020 was a great year for gold. Thus, the analysts’ 2021 average forecast for the price of gold was $1,973.8, almost $200 above the actual level. Hence, please take the survey with a pinch of salt. OK, the analysts don’t predict a literally flat market. The forecasts concerned averages, but some experts see the first half of the year as more bullish than the second, while others, vice versa. I’d rather include myself in the latter group, as my view is that the expectations of Fed tightening will continue to exert downward pressure on gold prices in the coming weeks. However, the hawkish expectations have probably gone a little too far. At some point this year, they will be adjusted, as it becomes clear that the Fed will be forced to reduce the pace of its tightening or even reverse its stance in order to calm the market and avoid the next economic crisis. Such an adjustment will be positive for gold prices, especially since it might occur amid still high inflation, but gold bulls should remember that there is still a long way to go before that happens. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Is It Worth Adding Gold to Your Portfolio in 2022?

Is It Worth Adding Gold to Your Portfolio in 2022?

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 17.02.2022 16:29
  Gold prices declined in 2021 and the prospects for 2022 are not impressive as well. However, the yellow metal’s strategic relevance remains high. Last month, the World Gold Council published two interesting reports about gold. The first one is the latest edition of Gold Demand Trends, which summarizes the entire last year. Gold supply decreased 1%, while gold demand rose 10% in 2021. Despite these trends, the price of gold declined by around 4%, which – for me – undermines the validity of the data presented by the WGC. I mean here that the relevance of some categories of gold demand (jewelry demand, technological demand, the central bank’s purchases) for the price formation is somewhat limited. The most important driver for gold prices is investment demand. Unsurprisingly, this category plunged 43% in 2021, driven by large ETF outlfows. According to the report, “gold drew direction chiefly from inflation and interest rate expectations in 2021,” although it seems that rising rates outweighed inflationary concerns. As the chart below shows, the interest rates increased significantly last year. For example, 10-year Treasury yields rose 60 basis points. As a result, the opportunity costs for holding gold moved up, triggering an outflow of gold holdings from the ETF. As the rise in interest rates is likely to continue in 2022 because of the hawkish stance of the Fed, gold investment may struggle this year as well. The end of quantitative easing and the start of quantitative tightening may add to the downward pressure on gold prices. However, there are some bullish caveats here. First, gold has remained resilient in January, despite the hawkish FOMC meeting. Second, the Fed’s tightening cycle could be detrimental to the US stock market and the overall, highly indebted economy, which could be supportive of gold prices. Third, as the report points out, “gold has historically outperformed in the months following the onset of a US Fed tightening cycle”. The second publication released by the WGC last month was “The Relevance of Gold as a Strategic Asset 2022”. The main thesis of the report is that gold is a strategic asset, complementary to equities and bonds, that enhances investment portfolios’ performance. This is because gold is “a store of wealth and a hedge against systemic risk, currency depreciation, and inflation.” It is also “highly liquid, no one’s liability, carries no credit risk, and is scarce, historically preserving its value over time.” Gold is believed to be a great source of return, as its price has increased by an average of nearly 11% per year since 1971, according to the WGC. Gold can also provide liquidity, as the gold market is highly liquid. As the report points out, “physical gold holdings by investors and central banks are worth approximately $4.9 trillion, with an additional $1.2 trillion in open interest through derivatives traded on exchanges or the over-the-counter (OTC) market.” Last but not least, gold is an excellent portfolio diversifier, as it is negatively correlated with risk assets, and – importantly – this negative correlation increases as these assets sell off. Hence, adding gold to a portfolio could diversify it, improving its risk-adjusted return, and also provide liquidity to meet liabilities in times of market stress. The WGC’s analysis suggests that investors should consider adding between 4% and 15% of gold to the portfolio, but personally, I would cap this share at 10%.   Implications for Gold What do the recent WGC reports imply for the gold market? Well, one thing is that adding some gold to the investment portfolio would probably be a smart move. After all, gold serves the role of both a safe-haven asset and an insurance against tail risks. It’s nice to be insured. However, investing in gold is something different, as gold may be either in a bullish or bearish trend. You should never confuse these two motives behind owning gold! Sometimes it’s good to own gold for both insurance and investment reasons, but not always. When it comes to 2022, investment demand for gold may continue to be under downward pressure amid rising interest rates. However, there are also some bullish forces at work, which could intensify later this year. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Is It Like XAUUSD Is Supported By Everything? How Long Will The Strengthening Last?

Is It Like XAUUSD Is Supported By Everything? How Long Will The Strengthening Last?

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 22.02.2022 16:01
  The current military tensions and the Fed’s sluggishness favor gold bulls, but not all events are positive for the yellow metal. What should we be aware of? It may be quiet on the Western Front, but quite the opposite on the Eastern Front. Russia has accumulated well over 100,000 soldiers on the border with Ukraine and makes provocations practically every day, striving for war more and more clearly. Last week, shelling was reported on Ukraine’s front line and Russia carried out several false flag operations. According to Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, “the evidence on the ground is that Russia is moving toward an imminent invasion.” Meanwhile, President Biden said: “We have reason to believe they are engaged in a false flag operation to have an excuse to go in. Every indication we have is they're prepared to go into Ukraine and attack Ukraine.” Of course, what politicians say should always be taken with a pinch of salt, but it seems that the situation has gotten serious and the risk of Russian invasion has increased over recent days.   Implications for Gold What does the intensifying conflict between Russia and Ukraine imply for the gold market? Well, the last week was definitely bullish for the yellow metal. As the chart below shows, the price of gold (London P.M. Fix) rallied over the past few days from $1,849 to $,1894, the highest level since June 2021; And he gold futures have even jumped above $1,900 for a while! Part of that upward move was certainly driven by geopolitical risks related to the assumed conflict between Russia and Ukraine. This is because gold is a safe-haven asset in which investors tend to park their money in times of distress. It’s worth remembering that not all geopolitical events are positive for gold, and when they are, their impact is often short-lived. Hence, if Russia invades Ukraine, the yellow metal should gain further, but if uncertainty eases, gold prices may correct somewhat. To be clear, the timing of the current military tensions is favorable for gold bulls. First of all, we live in an environment of already high inflation. Wars tend to intensify price pressure as governments print more fiat money to finance the war effort and reorient their economies from producing consumer goods toward military stuff. Not to mention the possible impact of the conflict on oil prices, which would contribute to rising energy costs and CPI inflation. According to Morgan Stanley’s analysts, further increases in energy prices could sink several economies into an outright recession. Second, the pace of economic growth is slowing down. The Fed has been waiting so long to tighten its monetary policy that it will start hiking interest rates in a weakening economic environment, adding to the problems. There is a growing risk aversion right now, with equities and cryptocurrencies being sold off. Such an environment is supportive of gold prices. Third, the current US administration has become more engaged around the world than the previous one. My point is that the current conflict is not merely between Russia and Ukraine, but also between Russia and the United States. This is one of the reasons why gold has been reacting recently to the geopolitical news. However, a Russian invasion of Ukraine wouldn’t pose a threat to America, and the US won’t directly engage in military operations on Ukrainian land, so the rally in gold could still be short-lived. If history is any guide, geopolitical events usually trigger only temporary reactions in the precious metals markets, especially if they don’t threaten the United States and its economy directly. This is because all tensions eventually ease, and after a storm comes calm. Hence, although the media would focus on the conflict, don’t get scared and – when investing in the long run – remember gold fundamentals. Some of them are favorable, but we shouldn’t forget about the Fed’s tightening cycle and the possibility that disinflation will start soon, which could raise the real interest rates, creating downward pressure on gold prices. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Price Of Gold (XAUUSD) Will Be Supported, But Probable Massive Sale Of Russian Gold Can Hinder The Rise

Price Of Gold (XAUUSD) Will Be Supported, But Probable Massive Sale Of Russian Gold Can Hinder The Rise

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 01.03.2022 16:01
  Russia underestimated Ukraine’s fierce defense. Instead of quick conquest, the war is still going on. The same applies to pulling the rope between gold bulls and bears. It was supposed to be a blitzkrieg. The plan was simple: within 72 hours Russian troops were to take control of Kyiv, stage a coup, overthrow the democratically elected Ukrainian authorities, and install a pro-Russian puppet government. Well, the blitzkrieg clearly failed. The war has been going on for five days already, and Kyiv (and other major cities) remains in Ukrainian hands, while the Russians suffer great losses. Indeed, the Ukrainians are fighting valiantly. The Kremlin apparently did not expect such high morale among the troops and civilians, as well as such excellent organization and preparation. Meanwhile, the morale among Russian soldiers is reported to be pathetically low, as they have no motivation to fight with culturally close Ukrainians (many of whom speak perfect Russian). The invaders are also poorly equipped, and the whole operation was logistically unprepared (as the assumption was a quick capitulation by Ukrainian forces and a speedy collapse of the government in Kyiv). Well, pride comes before a fall. What’s more, the West is united as never before (Germany did a historic U-turn in its foreign and energy policies) and has already imposed relatively heavy economic sanctions on Russia (including cutting off some of the country’s banks from SWIFT), and donated weapons to Ukraine. However – and unfortunately – the war is far from being ended. Military analysts expect a second wave of Russian troops that can break the resistance of the Ukrainians, who have fewer forces and cannot relieve the soldiers just like the other side. Indeed, satellite pictures show a large convoy of Russian forces near Kyiv. Russia is also gathering troops in Belarus and – sadly – started shelling residential quarters in Ukrainian cities. According to US intelligence, Belarusian soldiers could join Russian forces. The coming days will be crucial for the fate of the conflict.   Implications for Gold What does the war between Russia and Ukraine imply for the gold market? Well, initially, the conflict was supportive of gold prices. As the chart below shows, the price of gold (London Fix) soared to $1,936 on Thursday. However, the rally was very short-lived, as the very next day, gold prices fell to $1,885. Thus, gold’s performance looked like “buy the rumor, sell the news.” However, yesterday, the price of the yellow metal returned above $1,900, so some geopolitical risk premium may still be present in the gold market. Anyway, it seems that I was right in urging investors to focus on fundamentals and to not make long-term investments merely based on geopolitical risks, the impact of which is often only temporary. Having said that, gold may continue its bullish trend, at least for a while. After all, the war not only increases risk aversion, but it also improves gold’s fundamental outlook. First of all, the Fed is now less likely to raise the federal funds rate in March. It will probably still tighten its monetary policy, but in a less aggressive way. For example, the market odds of a 50-basis point hike decreased from 41.4% one week ago to 12.4% now. What’s more, we are observing increasing energy prices, which could increase inflation further. The combination of higher inflation and a less hawkish Fed should be fundamentally positive for gold prices, as it implies low real interest rates. On the other hand, gold may find itself under downward pressure from selling reserves to raise liquidity. I'm referring to the fact that the West has cut Russia off from the SWIFT system in part. In such a situation, Russia would have to sell part of its massive gold reserves, which could exert downward pressure on prices. Hence, the upcoming days may be quite volatile for the gold market. At the end of my article, I would like to point out that although the war in Ukraine entails implications for the precious metals market, it is mostly a humanitarian tragedy. My thoughts and prayers are with all the casualties of the conflict and their families. I hope that Ukraine will withstand the invasion and peace will return soon! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Fed’s Tightening Cycle: Bullish or Bearish for Gold?

Fed’s Tightening Cycle: Bullish or Bearish for Gold?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 04.03.2022 16:14
This month, the Fed is expected to hike interest rates. Contrary to popular belief, the tightening doesn't have to be adverse for gold. What does history show?March 2022 – the Fed is supposed to end its quantitative easing and hike the federal funds rate for the first time during recovery from a pandemic crisis . After the liftoff, the Fed will probably also start reducing the size of its mammoth balance sheet and raise interest rates a few more times. Thus, the tightening of monetary policy is slowly becoming a reality. The golden question is: how will the yellow metal behave under these conditions?Let’s look into the past. The last tightening cycle of 2015-2019 was rather positive for gold prices. The yellow metal rallied in this period from $1,068 to $1,320 (I refer here to monthly averages), gaining about 24%, as the chart below shows.What’s really important is that gold bottomed out in December 2015, the month of the liftoff. Hence, if we see a replay of this episode, gold should detach from $1,800 and go north, into the heavenly land of bulls. However, in December 2015, real interest rates peaked, while in January 2016, the US dollar found its local top. These factors helped to catapult gold prices a few years ago, but they don’t have to reappear this time.Let’s dig a bit deeper. The earlier tightening cycle occurred between 2004 and 2006, and it was also a great time for gold, despite the fact that the Fed raised interest rates by more than 400 basis points, something unthinkable today. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal (monthly average) soared from $392 to $634, or more than 60%. Just as today, inflation was rising back then, but it was also a time of great weakness in the greenback, a factor that is currently absent.Let’s move even further back into the past. The Fed also raised the federal funds rate in the 1994-1995 and 1999-2000 periods. The chart below shows that these cases were rather neutral for gold prices. In the former, gold was traded sideways, while in the latter, it plunged, rallied, and returned to a decline. Importantly, just as in 2015, the yellow metal bottomed out soon after the liftoff in early 1999.In the 1980s, there were two major tightening cycles – both clearly negative for the yellow metal. In 1983-1984, the price of gold plunged 29% from $491 to $348, despite rising inflation, while in 1988-1989, it dropped another 12%, as you can see in the chart below.Finally, we have traveled back in time to the Great Stagflation period! In the 1970s, the Fed’s tightening cycles were generally positive for gold, as the chart below shows. In the period from 1972 to 1974, the average monthly price of the yellow metal soared from $48 to $172, or 257%. The tightening of 1977-1980 was an even better episode for gold. Its price skyrocketed from $132 to $675, or 411%. However, monetary tightening in 1980-1981 proved not very favorable , with the yellow metal plunging then to $409.What are the implications of our historical analysis for the gold market in 2022? First, the Fed’s tightening cycle doesn’t have to be bad for gold. In this report, I’ve examined nine tightening cycles – of which four were bullish, two were neutral, and three were bearish for the gold market. Second, all the negative cases occurred in the 1980s, while the two most recent cycles from the 21st century were positive for gold prices. It bodes well for the 2022 tightening cycle.Third, the key is, as always, the broader macroeconomic context – namely, what is happening with the US dollar, inflation, and real interest rates. For example, in the 1970s, the Fed was hiking rates amid soaring inflation. However, in March 1980, the CPI annul rate peaked, and a long era of disinflation started. This is why tightening cycles were generally positive in the 1970s, and negative in the 1980s.Hence, it seems on the surface that the current tightening should be bullish for gold, as it is accompanied by high inflation. However, inflation is expected to peak this year. If this happens, real interest rates could increase even further, creating downward pressure on gold prices. Please remember that the real federal funds rate is at a record low level. If inflation peaks, gold bulls’ only hope will be either a bearish trend in the US dollar (amid global recovery and ECB’s monetary policy tightening) or a dovish shift in market expectations about the path of the interest rates, given that the Fed’s tightening cycle has historically been followed by an economic slowdown or recession.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
Gold Price Chart - Knights of Gold Report: 06/03/22

Gold Price Chart - Knights of Gold Report: 06/03/22

Knights of Gold Knights of Gold 07.03.2022 08:37
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/rAk6jFd4-XAUUSD-KOG-REPORT/ In last weeks KOG Report we suggested we were expecting some bearish movement on Gold as there was a lot of supply below that we thought would need a visit. We did say due to the news we would need to keep the bullish momentum in mind and if the price and if price found support around the 1885 level we would be looking to long the market into the 1914 and above that 1930-35 levels. We expected a reaction at the 1935 level where we wanted to test the short, however, based on the market structure and the daily KOG updates we decided to sit out with shorting the market to let the bullish move play out. We then identified our target area on the NFP report where the first target has been hit, but we still have a target slightly higher that we would like to see achieved. So what can we expect in the week ahead? We’re going to keep it short this week and stick with the NFP chart we shared on Friday. What we’re looking during the course of this week is for our 1980-85 target that we mentioned a few weeks ago to be completed at some point and then for the price to attempt some form of bearish retracement into the first target of 1950, 1935 and below that 1920 initially. A break of 1920 and its likely we will see our lower target of 1885 completed. All charts are extremely bullish with the 3 month chart showing a trend that can complete around the 2085 level which we have to keep in mind. There is a lot of news still driving the market aggressively into these levels which is making if difficult for position traders to hold long term unless they’re using huge stop losses. So we’re going to play the defence again this week and take it level to level with the bias for this week being the short trade! So we’ll trade this with two scenarios: Scenario 1: The price comes down during the early sessions and finds support around the 1960-55 level, we feel this price point would represent a good opportunity to take the long trade into that 1980-85 level and potentially above! At that 1980-85 level we would like to see a reaction on price and based on strong resistance we may test that short we are looking for. Scenario 2: Price opens as it did last week with bullish volume from the get go. We will look for resistance at the 1980-85 level or there abouts and we feel that price point would represent an opportunity to short the market back down into the 1960, 1950 and below that 1930 levels. If we get this right again this week there are a lot of pips to be captured but your lots sizes are really important. Allocate a lot size that allows you to remain flexible with the choppy price action and the volatile swings that the markets are creating. Always have a risk strategy in place and you will make money in these markets. We’ll update you during the week as we usually do. As always, trade safe. KOG
It's Not Only About Price Of Gold. Palladium Price, Gold (XAUUSD) And Copper Price In Times Of Russia-Ukraine Conflict

It's Not Only About Price Of Gold. Palladium Price, Gold (XAUUSD) And Copper Price In Times Of Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 08.03.2022 12:16
While the world discusses the prospect of an embargo on Russian oil and gas, the absolute madness is in metals. In many of them, Russia has a pretty significant share, and investors fear a ban on exports could be Russia’s response to sanctions, on a par with restricting supplies of agricultural products. Palladium set a new all-time high at $3439 on Monday, gaining 14.8% on the day at one point. Nickel reached $100,000/tonne, gaining more than 200% over the two days, but soon retreated to $82,000 (+71% since the start of the day). Aluminum reached $4000 per tonne on Monday, compared with stabilization at $2600 from November to mid-December. Copper exceeded $10800/tonne yesterday, rewriting its historic high. Still, if we apply ‘peacetime’ patterns, we can see short-squeezes and a final capitulation by the bears in one metal after another. A reversal usually follows this. Copper and palladium have been sliding hard after making new all-time highs, and we’re now seeing a distinct tug-of-war between the buyers and the sellers, at an impressive distance from yesterday’s extremes. Nickel is retracing a sharp bounce today. The troy ounce reached $2020 earlier on Tuesday, having hit new highs since August 2020. The momentum in gold gained new strength after restrictions from cryptocurrency exchanges for Russian residents. But here, too, it is worth betting with great caution on the upside, as there will be a big seller entering the market. The Bank of Russia, for the most part, has no other means but to sell off the gold from its reserves in Russia. These steps could be taken tomorrow, as Monday and Tuesday were national holidays. Those actions will keep the price of gold on the way to the all-time highs near $2075, where it could be as early as this week. However, the chances are higher that more sellers will enter into gold, which will cool the current rally, temporarily correcting the price into the $1960-2000 area before the end of March.
The War Is on for Two Weeks. How Does It Affect Gold?

The War Is on for Two Weeks. How Does It Affect Gold?

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 10.03.2022 17:21
  With each day of the Russian invasion, gold confirms its status as the safe-haven asset. Its long-term outlook has become more bullish than before the war. Two weeks have passed since the Russian attack on Ukraine. Two weeks of the first full-scale war in Europe in the 21th century, something I still can’t believe is happening. Two weeks of completely senseless conflict between close Slavic nations, unleashed without any reasonable justification and only for the sake of Putin’s imperial dreams and his vision of Soviet Reunion. Two weeks of destruction, terror, and death that captured the souls of thousands of soldiers and hundreds of civilians, including dozens of children. Just yesterday, Russian forces bombed a maternity hospital in southern Ukraine. I used to be a fan of Russian literature and classic music (who doesn’t like Tolstoy or Tchaikovsky?), but the systematic bombing of civilian areas (and the use of thermobaric missiles) makes me doubt whether the Russians really belong to the family of civilized nations. Now, for the warzone report. The country’s capital and largest cities remain in the hands of the Ukrainians. Russian forces are drawing reserves, deploying conscript troops to Ukraine to replace great losses. They are still trying to encircle Kyiv. They are also strengthening their presence around the city of Mykolaiv in southern Ukraine. However, the Ukrainian army heroically holds back enemy attacks in all directions. The defense is so effective that the large Russian column north-west of Kyiv has made little progress in over a week, while Russian air activity has significantly decreased in recent days.   Implications for Gold How has the war, that has been going on for already two weeks, affected the gold market so far? Well, as the chart below shows, the military conflict was generally positive for the yellow metal, boosting its price from $1,905 to $1989, or about 4.4%. Please note that initially the price of gold jumped, only to decline after a while, and only then rallied, reaching almost $2,040 on Tuesday (March 8, 2022). However, the price has retreated since then, below the key level of $2,000. This is partially a normal correction after an impressive upward move. It’s also possible that the markets are starting to smell the end of the war. You see, Russian forces can’t break through the Ukrainian defense. They can continue besieging cities, but the continuation of the invasion entails significant costs, and Russia’s economy is already sinking. Hence, they can either escalate the conflict in a desperate attempt to conquer Kyiv – according to the White House, Russia could conduct a chemical or biological weapon attack in Ukraine – or try to negotiate the ceasefire. In recent days, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, said he was open to a compromise with Russia. Today, the Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers met in Turkey for the first time since the horror started (unfortunately, without any agreement). However, although gold prices may consolidate for a while or even fall if the prospects of the de-escalation increase, the long-term fundamentals have turned more bullish. As you can see in the chart below, the real interest rates decreased amid the prospects of higher inflation and slower economic growth. Russia and Ukraine are key exporters of many commodities, including oil, which would increase the production costs and bring us closer to stagflation. What’s next, risk aversion increased significantly, which is supportive of safe-haven assets such as gold. After all, Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine is a turning point in modern history, which ends a period of civilized relations with Russia and relative safety in the world. Although Russia’s army discredited itself in Ukraine, the country still has nuclear weapons able to destroy the globe. As you can see in the chart below, both the credit spreads (represented here by the ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread) and the CBOE volatility index (also called “the fear index”) rose considerably in the last two weeks. Hence, the long-term outlook for gold is more bullish than before the invasion. The short-term future is more uncertain, as there might be periods of consolidation and even corrections if the conflict de-escalates or ends. However, given the lack of any decisions during today’s talks between Ukrainian and Russian foreign ministers and the continuation of the military actions, gold may rally further. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
GoldViewFX - Market UPDATE- LEVELS & TARGETS FOR THE WEEK

GoldViewFX - Market UPDATE- LEVELS & TARGETS FOR THE WEEK

GoldViewFX Ideas GoldViewFX Ideas 14.03.2022 10:55
// GoldViewFX - Market UPDATE- LEVELS & TARGETS FOR THE WEEK by Goldviewfx on TradingView.com Hey Everyone,We had an awesome finish to the week taking exits on the buys at 2006 Goldturn and then we had a rejection, which saw price retrace down to the full swing range at 1958, see below; The swing range gave another opportunity to buy at 1958 for exit before the next Goldturn at 1979 close to 200 pip movement. My trading plan on the chart together with the strategy to only buy 20 to 30 pips at a time always gives the opportunity to avoid getting stuck in the swings and always allowing better and safer entries strategically sitting behind the trend allowing me to capture without getting stuck. This skill I have acquired over time and requires a good trading psychology and stamina to wait patiently for these sweet entries.We remain Bullish and whilst we had some movement down, we just need to zoom out of the charts to see the Bullish structure, please see below; This zoomed out 1H chart setup shows the clear Bullish structure and trend and the current swings fall within the Goldturn trendline. This charts also shows room for retracement down to 1969, which we will keep in mind while takin buys from support levels or signals.End of week retracement down has bought us back into the price range of 1958 to 2006. Therefore we have moved our swing range down to 1935 for good measure to be able to manage the swing below the range. Due to the volatile market conditions this will help us to manage any premature exits and SL hunting and will allow me to risk manage the movement within these extended boundaries outside the range. Any tests on these strong support levels will allow me to take 20 to 30 pip buys and get out safely even if the volatility pushes the price against our anticipated direction.We have an immediate TARGET of 1995, which was activated with the EMA5 Goldturn break and close above 1979. Lets see how this plays out. Please note I will be observing both the immediate retracement level 1969 and swing range of 1935 throughout the week, as part of my risk/money management.As always, we will keep you all updated with any changes to our plan and targets. Please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support us.GoldViewFXXAUUSD TOP AUTHOR
XAUUSD Decreases, Russia-Ukraine Conflict Remains, Fed Decides

XAUUSD Decreases, Russia-Ukraine Conflict Remains, Fed Decides

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 15.03.2022 14:13
  It seems that the stalemate in Ukraine has slowed down gold's bold movements. Will the Fed's decision on interest rates revive them again?  The tragedy continues. As United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said yesterday, “Ukraine is on fire and being decimated before the eyes of the world.” There have already been 1,663 civilian casualties since the Russian invasion began. What is comforting in this situation is that Russian troops have made almost no advance in recent days (although there has been some progress in southern Ukraine). They are attempting to envelop Ukrainian forces in the east of the country as they advance from the direction of Kharkiv in the north and Mariupol in the south, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to offer staunch resistance across the country. So, it seems that there is a kind of stalemate. The Russians don’t have enough forces to break decisively through the Ukrainian defense, while Ukraine’s army doesn’t have enough troops to launch an effective counteroffensive and get rid of the occupiers. Now, the key question is: in whose favor is time working? On the one hand, Russia is mobilizing fighters from its large country, but also from Syria and Nagorno-Karabakh. The invaders continue indiscriminate shelling and air attacks that cause widespread destruction among civilian population as well. On the other hand, each day Russian army suffers heavy losses, while Ukraine is getting new weapons from the West.   Implications for Gold How is gold performing during the war? As the chart below shows, the recent stabilization of the military situation in Ukraine has been negative for the yellow metal. The price of gold slid from its early March peak of $2,039 to $1,954 one week later (and today, the price is further declining). However, please note that gold makes higher highs and higher lows, so the outlook remains rather positive, although corrections are possible. On the other hand, gold’s slide despite the ongoing war and a surge in inflation could be a little disturbing. However, the reason for the decline is simple. It seems that the uncertainty reached its peak last week and has eased since then. As the chart below shows, the CBOE volatility index, also called a fear index, has retreated from its recent peak. The Russian troops have made almost no progress, the most severe response of the West is probably behind us, and the world hasn’t sunk into nuclear war. Meanwhile, the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are taking place, offering some hope for a relatively quick end to the war. As I wrote last week, “there might be periods of consolidation and even corrections if the conflict de-escalates or ends.” The anticipation of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting could also contribute to the slide in gold prices. However, the chart above also shows that credit spreads, another measure of risk perception, have continued to widen in recent days. Other fundamental factors also remain supportive of gold prices. Let’s take, for instance, inflation. As the chart below shows, the annual CPI rate has soared from 7.5% in January to 7.9% in February, the largest move since January 1982. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, surged from 6.0% to 6.4% last month, also the highest reading in forty years. The war in Ukraine can only add to the inflationary pressure. Prices of oil and other commodities have already soared. The supply chains got another blow. The US Congress is expanding its spending again to help Ukraine. Thus, the inflation peak would likely occur later than previously thought. High inflation may become more embedded, which increases the odds of stagflation. All these factors seem to be fundamentally positive for gold prices. There is one “but”. The continuous surge in inflation could prompt monetary hawks to take more decisive actions. Tomorrow, the FOMC will announce its decision on interest rates, and it will probably hike the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. The hawkish Fed could be bearish for gold prices. Having said that, historically, the Fed’s tightening cycle has been beneficial to the yellow metal when accompanied by high inflation. Last time, the price of gold bottomed out around the liftoff. Another issue is that, because of the war in Ukraine, the Fed could adopt a more dovish stance and lift interest rates in a more gradual way, which could be supportive of gold prices. The military situation in Ukraine and tomorrow’s FOMC meeting could be crucial for gold’s path in the near future. The hike in interest rates is already priced in, but the fresh dot-plot and Powell’s press conference could bring us some unexpected changes in US monetary policy. Stay tuned! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
GOLD – Potential Bullish Reversal!

Time To Look At Price Of Gold (XAUUSD) - Market Update

GoldViewFX Ideas GoldViewFX Ideas 16.03.2022 10:40
// GoldViewFX - MARKET UPDATE by Goldviewfx on TradingView.com Trend Analysis Chart Patterns Technical Indicators Gold XAUUSD buysetup sellsetup forexsignals forexanalysis Contains image    Hey Everyone,What a volatile few days of trading, we hope everyone traded safe and managed risk during these volatile conditions.We started our day with a signal TP and then sat back and let the price tank for us to asses how price action reacted to our Goldturn levels. Over the last month we have shared how we rode the Bull run to the top from behind, which allows us to take a safe exit from the Bull run when the market turns. We managed any buys from the top by measuring retracements and getting out early using our Goldturns.1906 Goldturn support has held for now with a candle wick out, which followed with price hitting 1922 with EMA5 breaking and closing above 1922 leaving a target open for 1935, we also have 1922 broken down with EMA5 leaving a target to 1906 again, TARGETS open both ways. Two gaps left open to fill, 1906 being the most recent and current active gap.The more significant challenge for us to keep an eye on is a break below 1906 with EMA5. This will open 1888, which opens the lower range, changing the Bullish structure. The range shift has happened but driven by news and FOMC, therefore it is too early determine a change in the Bullish structure, however a break below 1906 will change our plans to buy dips and we will look to start shorting from spikes.Our 4H chart has already started shaping up with a Bearish setup with SWING range and level identified. See below; As always we will keep you all updated with any changes to our plans and we hope you find our open transparent sharing and reviewing of changes to our ideas helpful. Please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support us, we really appreciate it!GoldViewFXXAUUSD TOP AUTHOR
Despite Ultra-Hawkish Fed’s Meeting, Gold Jumps

Despite Ultra-Hawkish Fed’s Meeting, Gold Jumps

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 17.03.2022 17:29
  The FOMC finally raised interest rates and signaled six more hikes this year. Despite the very hawkish dot plot, gold went up in initial reaction. There has been no breakthrough in Ukraine. Russian invasion has largely stalled on almost all fronts, so the troops are focusing on attacking civilian infrastructure. However, according to some reports, there is a slow but gradual advance in the south. Hence, although Russia is not likely to conquer Kyiv, not saying anything about Western Ukraine, it may take some southern territory under control, connecting Crimea with Donbas. The negotiations are ongoing, but it will be a long time before any agreement is reached. Let’s move to yesterday’s FOMC meeting. As widely expected, the Fed raised the federal funds rate. Finally! Although one Committee member (James Bullard) opted for a bolder move, the US central bank lifted the target range for its key policy rate only by 25 basis points, from 0-0.25% to 0.25-0.50%. It was the first hike since the end of 2018. The move also marks the start of the Fed’s tightening cycle after two years of ultra-easy monetary policy implemented in a response to the pandemic-related recession. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate from 1/4 to 1/2 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. It was, of course, the most important part of the FOMC statement. However, the central bankers also announced the beginning of quantitative tightening, i.e., the reduction of the enormous Fed’s balance sheet, at the next monetary policy meeting in May. In addition, the Committee expects to begin reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at a coming meeting. It’s also worth mentioning that the Fed deleted all references to the pandemic from the statement. Instead, it added a paragraph related to the war in Ukraine, pointing out that its exact implications for the U.S. economy are not yet known, except for the general upward pressure on inflation and downward pressure on GDP growth: The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The implications for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain, but in the near term the invasion and related events are likely to create additional upward pressure on inflation and weigh on economic activity. These changes in the statement were widely expected, so their impact on the gold market should be limited.   Dot Plot and Gold The statement was accompanied by the latest economic projections conducted by the FOMC members. So, how do they look at the economy right now? As the table below shows, the central bankers expect the same unemployment rate and much slower economic growth this year compared to last December. This is a bit strange, as slower GDP growth should be accompanied by higher unemployment, but it’s a positive change for the gold market. What’s more, the FOMC participants see inflation now as even more persistent because they expect 4.3% PCE inflation at the end of 2022 instead of 2.6%. Inflation is forecasted to decline in the following years, but only to 2.7% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024, instead of the 2.3% and 2.1% seen in December. Slower economic growth accompanied by more stubborn inflation makes the economy look more like stagflation, which should be positive for gold prices. Last but not least, a more aggressive tightening cycle is coming. Brace yourselves! According to the fresh dot plot, the FOMC members see seven hikes in interest rates this year as appropriate. That’s a huge hawkish turn compared to December, when they perceived only three interest rate hikes as desired. The central bankers expect another four hikes in 2024 instead of just the three painted in the previous dot plot. Hence, the whole forecasted path of the federal fund rate has become steeper as it’s expected to reach 1.9% this year and 2.8% next year, compared to the 0.9% and 1.6% seen earlier. Wow, that’s a huge change that is very bearish for gold prices! The Fed signaled the fastest tightening since 2004-2006, which indicates that it has become really worried about inflation. It’s also possible that the war in Ukraine helped the US central bank adopt a more hawkish stance, as if monetary tightening leads to recession, there is an easy scapegoat to blame.   Implications for Gold What does the recent FOMC meeting mean for the gold market? Well, the Fed hiked interest rates and announced quantitative tightening. These hawkish actions are theoretically negative for the yellow metal, but they were probably already priced in. The new dot plot is certainly more surprising. It shows higher inflation and slower economic growth this year, which should be bullish for gold. However, the newest economic projections also forecast a much steeper path of interest rates, which should, theoretically, prove to be negative for the price of gold. How did gold perform? Well, it has been sliding recently in anticipation of the FOMC meeting. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal plunged from $2,039 last week to $1,913 yesterday. However, the immediate reaction of gold to the FOMC meeting was positive. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal rebounded, jumping above $1,940. Of course, we shouldn’t draw too many conclusions from the short-term moves, but gold’s resilience in the face of the ultra-hawkish FOMC statement is a bullish sign. Although it remains to be seen whether the upward move will prove to be sustainable, I wouldn’t be surprised if it will. This is what history actually suggests: when the Fed started its previous tightening cycle in December 2015, the price of gold bottomed out. Of course, history never repeats itself to the letter, but there is another important factor. The newest FOMC statement was very hawkish – probably too hawkish. I don’t believe that the Fed will hike interest rates to 1.9% this year. And you? It means that we have probably reached the peak of the Fed’s hawkishness and that it will rather soften its stance from then on. If I’m right, a lot of the downward pressure that constrained gold should be gone now. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Trading plan for Gold on June 30, 2022

Price Of Gold Charts: GoldViewFX - Market Review - Updated Levels & Targets

GoldViewFX Ideas GoldViewFX Ideas 21.03.2022 11:22
// GoldViewFX - MARKET REVIEW - UPDATED LEVELS & TARGETS$ by Goldviewfx on TradingView.com Hey Everyone,This is our updated 4H chart levels with the most up to date 4H chart Goldturns.We can see a break at 1940, which opened target to 1896, which was HIT perfectly. If EMA5 continued and broke 1896 we would see the lower levels open up. 1896 was rejected with strong support. We saw price go back to challenge 1940 but no break.We may see another challenge at 1896 but remain Bullish towards 1940 again, as we have an outstanding target at 1958 and the fact that 1896 was supported, it sets the price up to challenge the Goldturn channel again in stages to 1995. If this channel is not tested and broken in the coming weeks then we will see 1896 break below for lower targets.The 4H chart setup remains Bullish above 1896 and therefore I am confident in taking buys from support levels and taking exits of 20 to 30 pips to avoid swings.1H CHART UPDATE The 1H chart had a break at 1935 opening 1922 which was HIT perfectly. We are now looking for EMA5 to cross 1922 with candle body close to open another challenge to 1906. A failure to break this level will see price head towards the upper targets again, as we have a gap at 1958, which was left open from a EMA5 break and candle body close above 1935.We have a swing range of 1888, which is still supporting our Bullish setups and the rejection here last week only strengthened this level. We remain Bullish above 1888!As always we will keep you all updated with any changes to the structure and our setups. The markets are very volatile with news and events providing fuel for movement in both directions, therefore we must avoid getting too hung up trying to figure out where its going and focus more on trading the levels in stages up or down.Please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support us. We really appreciate it!GoldViewFXXAUUSD TOP AUTHOR
GOLD – Potential Bullish Reversal!

Gold Fluctuate - H1 Market Review & Updated Levels

GoldViewFX Ideas GoldViewFX Ideas 23.03.2022 09:11
// GoldViewFX - H1 MARKET REVIEW & UPDATED LEVELS by Goldviewfx on TradingView.com Hey Everyone,We had some movement down today testing the lower Goldturns, which we were expecting due to the swing range we identified in this volatile range. However we remain within the Bullish structure and just need to be patient with where we pick our entries in these volatile market conditions.Todays price action is a perfect example of waiting for the right entry. Normally we would take a buy entry from dips at support levels to ride up safely. However we had a open target from yesterday and because EMA5 broke yesterdays Goldturn high, we took a buy at the top. We quickly managed out of the buy and then took the entries from the drops, as part of our initial plan on buying dips. Second round of buys we took from the 1922 level, followed with entries from the 1911 Goldturn. Needless to say we covered the trade at the top and finished the day on profit!! This is trade and range management!I cannot emphasize how effective it has been for us to bank 20 to 30 pips at a time. This allowed us to take entries from dips and get out with profit before the next swing providing multiple entries and exits. Taking the entry and banking at 20 to 30 pips at a time gives us better odds in avoiding the swings. Every market condition requires us to adapt and change our style according to the new structure and applying the right framework for entry, exit, exposure and PIP capture is critical to trade successfully.We have updated the 1H chart levels with the most current Goldturn levels and will be trading this range between these levels. We are expecting 1928 as a target with some retracement close to 1917. Whilst we expect swings below, we can expect price re-test some of the upper 1900 levels in stages. Keep in mind the potential trading range from the DAILY CHART (see related post below).Tomorrow we will wait to see if 1917 holds to support buys or we get to test 1911 again; a break here will change our setup. This will be observed before taking positions.As always we will keep you all posted with any changes and keep everything as transparent as possible to give you all a true insight of a traders day to day journey from analysis to execution to trade management. Managing a profitable trade is easy, its how you manage a losing trade that sets you apart from the rest!!!!Please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support us, we really appreciate it!GoldViewFXXAUUSD TOP AUTHOR
GOLD – Potential Bullish Reversal!

GoldViewFX - XAUUSD - Price Update - 29/03/22

GoldViewFX Ideas GoldViewFX Ideas 30.03.2022 08:30
// GoldViewFX - Market UDPATE by Goldviewfx on TradingView.com Hey Everyone,We had our 1928 target HIT on the H1 chart last night with plenty of gaps left above and then price tanked fuelled by Geopolitics. We stayed out of positions and we let the market play out till it found support. Sometimes the best position to take in the market is no position and this was the perfect call for us today.I'm sharing this 4H CHART, which we posted before with the 4H GOLDTURN LEVELS. This chart shows EMA5 break with a candle body close leaving a gap to 1896 which was HIT perfectly also inline with the 4H chart swing range. This level of support was already highlighted, as a strong level and staying above this level keeps us within the Bullish structure.This now gives us confidence to continue with our plans on buying dips and only banking 20 to 30 pips at a time, in such volatile conditions, gives us a better chance to avoid swing traps. Waiting patiently for the right opportunity to ride the trend is key and knowing when to stay out should be part of everyones trading plan.We will now look for EMA5 to cross MA200 back up to provide the momentum needed for the 1940 challenge. A rejection here could see pressure for 1896 to be challenged and broken, we will be observing this closely and trading smaller LOTS to manage this risk.As always we will keep you all updated with any changes and in the mean time please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support us.GoldViewFXXAUUSD TOP AUTHOR
Interaction Between Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) And Price Of Gold

Interaction Between Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) And Price Of Gold

FXStreet News FXStreet News 31.03.2022 16:21
Nonfarm Payrolls in US is forecast to increase by 490,000 in March. Gold is likely to react more significantly to a disappointing jobs report than an upbeat one. Gold's movement has no apparent connection with NFP deviation four hours after the release. Historically, how impactful has the US jobs report been on gold’s valuation? In this article, we present results from a study in which we analyzed the XAU/USD pair's reaction to the previous 20 NFP prints*. We present our findings as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) gets ready to release the March jobs report on Friday, April 1. Expectations are for a 490,000 rise in Nonfarm Payrolls following the 678,000 increase in February. *We omitted the NFP data for March 2021, which was published on the first Friday of April, due to lack of volatility amid Easter Friday. Methodology We plotted gold price’s reaction to the NFP release at 15 minutes, one hour and four hours intervals after the release. Then we compared the gold price reaction to the deviation between the actual NFP release result and the expected result. We used the FXStreet Economic Calendar for data on deviation as it assigns a deviation point to each macroeconomic data release to show how big the divergence was between the actual print and the market consensus. For instance, the August (2021) NFP data missed the market expectation of 750,000 by a wide margin and the deviation was -1.49. On the other hand, February’s (2021) NFP print of 536,000 against the market expectation of 182,000 was a positive surprise with the deviation posting 1.76 for that particular release. A better-than-expected NFP print is seen as a USD-positive development and vice versa. Finally, we calculated the correlation coefficient (r) to figure out at which time frame gold had the strongest correlation with an NFP surprise. When r approaches -1, it suggests there is a significant negative correlation, while a significant positive correlation is identified when r moves toward 1. Since gold is defined as XAU/USD, an upbeat NFP reading should cause it to edge lower and point to a negative correlation. Results There were 11 negative and nine positive NFP surprises in the previous 20 releases, excluding data for March 2021. On average, the deviation was -0.92 on disappointing prints and 0.65 on strong figures. 15 minutes after the release, gold moved up by $3.66 on average if the NFP reading fell short of market consensus. On the flip side, gold declined by $1.68 on average on positive surprises. This finding suggests that investors’ immediate reaction is likely to be more significant to a disappointing print. However, the correlation coefficients we calculated for the different time frames mentioned above don’t even come close to being significant. The strongest negative correlation is seen 15 minutes after the releases with the r standing at -0.48. One hour after the release, the correlation weakens with the r rising to -0.3 and there is virtually no correlation to speak of four hours after the release with the r approaching 0. Several factors could be coming into play to weaken gold’s correlation with NFP surprises. Several hours after the NFP release on Friday, investors could look to book their profits toward the London fix, causing gold to reverse its direction after the initial reaction. Additionally, US Treasury bond yields’ movements have been impacting gold’s action lately and a decline in the benchmark 10-year T-bond yield on an upbeat jobs report could make it difficult for the USD to gather strength against its rivals, limiting XAU/USD’s downside.  
Are Bearish Times Coming? Gold To Fall And DXY To Rise?

Are Bearish Times Coming? Gold To Fall And DXY To Rise?

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 05.04.2022 15:58
  Gold is still running on the war-fumes, but its last moves bring to mind only bearish associations. Worse yet, a rising dollar appeared on the horizon. On the technical front, we saw that the junior mining stocks moved higher in the first part of the session, but then declined and ended the day practically unchanged. Why did junior miners rally initially? Perhaps for technical reasons. They were moving higher in their immediate-term trend, and thus, it might have been necessary for them to reach a resistance level before they could return to their downtrend. Junior miners just found the resistance in the form of the declining line based on the previous March highs. After a tiny attempt to break above this line, the GDXJ declined and the breakout was invalidated, suggesting that the rally is over. Now, the above-mentioned resistance line appears to be the upper border of the triangle pattern, which might concern you because triangles are usually a “continuation pattern”. In other words, the move that preceded the triangle is usually the type of move that follows it. The preceding move higher was up, so the following move could be to the upside as well. However, for this to happen, junior miners would first need to confirm the breakout above the line, and we saw the opposite taking place yesterday – the breakout above the line was invalidated. If – instead – we see a decline below the lower border of the triangle, the pattern would likely be followed by a decline. Please note that I wrote “usually” and now “always” with regard to the bullish implications of triangles. If we look beyond the above chart, the bearish case is more justified than the bullish one. I don’t mean just the extremely bearish situation in gold’s long-term chart, where it’s clear that gold is repeating its 2011-2013 performance, with the recent top being analogous to what we saw in 2012. If it wasn’t for the Ukraine-war-tension-based rally, gold would have likely topped close to its current levels, which would be a perfect analogy to where it topped in 2012 – close to its preceding medium-term highs. The fact that the RSI indicator moved lower recently after being close to 70 indicates that the top is already behind us. If history is about to rhyme (and that’s very probable in my view), gold is likely to decline in a back-and-forth manner before it truly slides without looking back. Basically, that’s what we’ve been seeing recently. The recent consolidation is not a bullish development, but something in perfect tune with the extremely bearish pattern from 2012. I don’t mean “just” the above, because we see similar analogies in silver and gold stocks (the HUI Index), and we get other indications (of more short-term nature) from the USD Index and the general stock market. The technical picture of the S&P 500 index suggests that the final top and the initial corrective upswing are over. The general stock market closed the week below its February highs, which means that the small breakout above them was invalidated. This is a very bearish indication for the following weeks. Many more investors are likely to become aware of the new interest-rate-hike-driven medium-term bear market once the S&P 500 breaks to new 2022 lows. That’s when the decline is likely to accelerate, quite likely also in silver and mining stocks that are usually most vulnerable to stock market moves. Moreover, let’s keep in mind that the USD Index is likely to soar once again soon, triggering declines in the precious metals market. In my previous analyses, I commented on the USD Index in the following way: If we focus on the USD Index alone, we’ll see that yesterday’s decline was absolutely inconsequential with regard to changing the outlook for the USDX. It simply continues to consolidate after a breakout above the mid-2020 highs. Breakout + consolidation = increasing chances of rallies’ continuation. A big wave up in the USD Index is likely just around the corner, and the precious metal sector is likely to decline when it materializes. As the war-based premiums in gold and the USD appear to be waning, a high-interest-rate-driven rally in the USD is likely to trigger declines in gold. The correlation between these two assets has started to decline. When that happened during the last two cases (marked with orange), gold plummeted profoundly shortly thereafter. The USD Index rallied recently, once again clearly verifying the breakout above its mid-2020 high. This means that the USD Index is now likely ready to rally once again. Naturally, this has bearish implications for the precious metals sector. All in all, technicals favor a decline in the precious metals sector sooner rather than later. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
What Can We Expect From Q2 Earnings Season? What Do We Learn From (MU) Micron Technology's Earnings?

Price Of Gold (XAUUSD) KOG Report – FOMC – What’s to come!

Knights of Gold Knights of Gold 06.04.2022 12:53
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/jSTfZpt9-XAUUSD-KOG-REPORT-FOMC/ This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price. We’re going to keep it short for this report as we’re not really changing our plan from the KOG Report and daily analysis which has been shared here over the course of the week. We’ve already hit the higher level where we suggested shorting the market which gave a decent return on yesterday’s move. We are expecting the range to potentially break with hopefully an upside swoop on liquidity before testing the lower levels that are illustrated on the chart. We will be looking for the price to stay below the 1950-60 price point, the price region is 100pips because this is FOMC and being a high-volume event (usually), the market can surpass levels with aggressive spikes. So, we will look at this with two scenarios in mind with the bias being towards the move upwards first! Scenario 1: The price pushes up into that 1945-50 and above that 1955-60 price region, these areas we feel would represent an opportunity to short the market back down into the 1930, 1920 and below that 1903 price points initially. Once the entry is placed and in profit we will take partials along the way and protect the trade. Scenario 2: Price pushes down. In this scenario we will wait for the lower levels of 1885-7 and below that 1860-65 for the price to exhaust and then we feel this price points would represent an opportunity to go long on the market back up towards the 1910 and above that 1920 price points. This could again be an anti-climax like we've seen recently as these rate hikes have been priced in. What the market will be waiting for is the press conference which will be around 19:30 UK time where Powells responses can move the markets. In our opinion the best way to trade this is not to. Stay out until tomorrow, they will move the market to where they want to buy or sell it, that’s what we as traders should do to, wait for them to move the market, let it find its base and then think about taking the trade. Our immediate target level is around 1945 so we’re hoping this target is completed at some point today.
Trading plan for Gold on June 30, 2022

Price Of Gold (XAUUSD) The KOG Report – The week ahead for Gold!

Knights of Gold Knights of Gold 10.04.2022 20:37
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/GQ9tyXwE-XAUUSD-KOG-REPORT/ In last weeks KOG report we said we would like to see some bearish pressure on Gold as long as the price stayed below the 1960 region. We suggested that if the market opened and pushed to the upside we would be looking for the zones illustrated on last weeks report to hold and then we would be looking to go short. We wanted to see at least the 1910 level target completed, however, the market reached 1914 and then turned bullish again. We suggested during the week that we had a target of 1945 which you can see has now been achieved. So what can we expect in the week ahead? We’re going to keep this report shorter than usual as our plan hasn’t really changed from last week, only the potential regions for reaction have changed which we have updated on the chart. We’re going to say again that we’re not convinced with the bullish movement at the moment, our bias is still neutral, but we feel there is an opportunity to get in on a short trade to target the lower support levels below 1900! That’s not to say we’re not seeing this go up a bit more. So, we have two targets in mind for the week ahead, the above target of 1970-75 and a lower target area of around 1890-95. We will be looking to either go long from support to target the higher level or 1975 or be looking to short the market from the higher level of 1975 down into lower support levels. So we will look at this as usual with two scenarios in mind: Scenario 1: It would be ideal for the market to open and just push up a little to tap into that 1950 supply and face some resistance there. We are expecting a pullback into the regions of 1940, 1935 and potentially 1920. This is where we feel there will be an opportunity to exits any short trades and take the long entry into the higher resistance level of 1970-75 where we will again be looking to go short for the lower levels. Please note, breaking 1920 and staying below this level will take us lower into 1910. Scenario 2: Price opens and pushes towards the downside, we will be looking for support to hold first around the 1930-35 region, breaking this the lower price point is 1920. If we see strong support here we will be looking to go long into the higher resistance levels of 1970-75 where again we will be looking to go short. So in essence, there are two key levels we are looking at targeting, we either want to go long from below to target 1970-75 or we want to go short from above to target 1895. Based on the mildness of the breakout on Friday it is very possible that we see this now range again just to really frustrate traders before they actually make the move they want to. While it ranges we will be trading this level to level the KOG way. As usual, we will update the analysis throughout the week and keep you in sync with any changes. Please do hit the like button, give us a follow and leave a comment. Your support and following is very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
Vulnerable Price Of Gold (XAUUSD) Has Slightly Increased

Vulnerable Price Of Gold (XAUUSD) Has Slightly Increased

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 11.04.2022 11:45
Gold prices have continued to rise at the start of the week after hovering in the $1940 area as covid cases continue to increase in the Shanghai region despite the lockdown announced by the Chinese government. While there is a lack of major macroeconomic reports today, many investors will be keeping an eye on the geopolitical situation and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict which continues to cause uncertainty along with speeches from several FED members in the second part of the day. Furthermore, the US earnings season starts this week with major financial institutions being the first to report their results ahead of the Easter holiday after an unpredictable first quarter of 2022 which saw many impactful events across the world with oil and gold prices nearing their all time highs. Today, gold is trading around $1960 and could continue to be volatile throughout the week as it remains to be seen if it will be able to extend the upward move or if it will pullback once again.   UK GDP grows while production worries persist UK Gross domestic product grew by 0.1% in February 2022, following a 0.8% growth in January 2022 with services growing by 0.2% thanks to a noticeable increase for services in February 2022 which was mainly driven by tourism-related industries and which has now brought real GDP to 1.5% above its pre-coronavirus level. This is a good sign for the economy but was slightly offset by production, which fell by 0.6% and construction, which fell by 0.1%. While rising inflation continues to be a significant risk, impacting both businesses and consumers significantly, today's data could provide another incentive to the BOE to take further action after it already implemented several rate increases.
Coffee Futures Have Gone Up, Black Gold Price Decreased. Financial Dictionary - What Are Commodities?

Coffee Futures Have Gone Up, Black Gold Price Decreased. Financial Dictionary - What Are Commodities?

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 11.04.2022 12:42
There are 4 broad categories of commodities that exist; livestock, agriculture, energy and metals. The trading of commodities is the exchange of different assets by means of futures contracts and many other platforms such as mutual funds, ETFs and stocks. Commodities can be used as a form of hedge against market volatility as the price of commodities often move in the opposite direction to stocks. Commodities are known as being risky investments because their market is dependent on aspects that are hard to predict such as; weather, disease, and natural disasters. The commodities that are being analyzed today are Gold, Crude Oil and Coffee. Gold: since the market opened, the price of gold has risen by 0.86%. The commodity is trading within a fairly stable range, it is not forming any distinct trends at this point in time, this could be due to the uncertainty around the current war in the Ukraine. Likewise, the rise in the US treasury yield strengthened the US dollar and therefore the potential for higher interest rates are preventing people from jumping on the bandwagon and buying gold. Price Of Gold Chart Crude oil, Crude prices fell as much as 2.56% as consumers worldwide announced their plans to release crude oil from their strategic stocks. The crude oil prices are falling in conjunction with the rising US gasoline stocks rising. However, whether or not the price drop is warranted is up for debate seeing as the US demand for oil remains high. At this point, it is uncertain as to which way the oil price will go (up or down). Crude Oil Chart The price of coffee futures is up today by at least 1.17%. Coffee: Coffee is traded in the form of futures. Futures contracts are a form of commodity trading whereby there is an exchange of contracts for assets that are bought at an agreed price but delivered and paid for later at an agreed date. The price of coffee futures is up today by at least 1.17%. Perhaps the price hike can be explained by the prediction that there will be a poor harvest in coffee coming in the future. We should watch for the potential downshift in the balance of coffee prices due to the potential for an economic downturn, increase in consumption costs and reduced consumptions and reduced imports due to the War in Ukraine. Coffee Futures Chart Charts: finance.yahoo.com
Gold Price (XAUUSD) May Shock Investors! Trading plan for Gold on June 21, 2022 | InstaForex

Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD recovers from intra-day dip under $1930, but still pressured as yields/USD rise

FXStreet News FXStreet News 22.04.2022 16:47
Gold Prices have recovered back into the $1940s from earlier sub-$1930 lows after finding support at the 50DMA. But XAU/USD still trades substantially lower on the day and versus earlier weekly highs at $2000. The backdrop of rising US yields and a strong US dollar have been unfavorable for gold. Spot gold (XAU/USD) prices have seen a decent intra-day bounce from earlier sub-$1930 lows back to the mid-$1940s, with the 50-Day Moving Average at $1936 offering strong support. But the precious metal continues to trade with losses of about 0.4% on the day, having ended Thursday trade to the north of the $1950 level. Gold continues to struggle to gain traction against a backdrop of still rising US yields (on Friday mostly at the front-end of the curve) and a strong US dollar, with markets pricing in a more aggressive Fed tightening cycle. In the last few days, in wake of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed policymakers opening the door to 50 bps rate hikes (some even hinted at larger moves), big US banks have been falling over themselves to hawkishly revise their Fed policy change calls. Nomura was in the headlines with a prediction that after a 50 bps rate hike in May the Fed would then follow up with a further two 75 bps rate hikes in June and July. This isn't a good backdrop for gold. Rising interest rates mean the "opportunity cost" of holding non-yielding assets like gold has gone up and this tends to dent demand. The Fed now goes into blackout ahead of the 3-4 May meeting, meaning precious metals might get some respite in the days ahead from hawkish Fed-related bearish flows. The big question investors will face next week will be whether 1) gold can make headway back towards this week's $2000 highs amid demand for inflation/stagflation protection as growth fears rise and geopolitical tensions remain elevated, or 2) will gold continue dropping towards recent lows in the $1900 area amid an unfavourable macro backdrop. Gold Price technical analysis On an hourly scale, XAU/USD has formed a double bottom chart pattern, which signifies a bullish reversal amid the absence of high-volume sellers while re-testing the critical bottom. The gold prices have witnessed a sheer upside after the successful retest of Wednesday’s low at $1,939.31. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has defended itself from slipping into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00. Also, the precious metal has established above 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which signals more gains ahead. Gold Price hourly chart On the other hand, the W-formation could be problematic and a restest of the neckline could be in order: Additionally, the daily wick and bearish close is a bearish formation which could give rise to a mitigation of the early April rally's imbalance of price for a test into a deeper demand area: On the other hand, the M-formation is also compelling on the daily chart and should bulls commute at hourly support, then the neckline would be expected to pull the price in.
Expect EUR/USD Fluctuations! Fed Expected To Hike By 75bp In July. It's Time To Review The Forecast On Fed, BoE, ECB, Riksbank And Bank Of Japan Prepared By ING Economics.

Can (XAUUSD) Gold Price Plunge To $1800!? Silver Price (XAGUSD) To Decrease As Well?

Jason Sen Jason Sen 25.04.2022 09:59
Gold first support at 1927/24 but longs need stops below 1920. A break lower targets 1915/12. Below 1910 look for 1900, perhaps as far as 1890. Strong resistance at 1940/45. Shorts need stops above 1950. Read next (By Jason Sen): British Pound To Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) Bounces To Ease Severely Oversold Conditions As Predicted, EUR/USD again holds important 5 year trend line support at 1.0850/20 | FXMAG.COM Silver best support for this week at 2390/80. Longs need stops below 2365. A break lower is a medium term sell signal. Minor resistance at 24.50/60. Strong resistance at 2485/95. Shorts need stops above 2505. WTI Crude JUNE first support at 102.00/101.50. Longs need stops below 101.00 (a low for the day here again on Friday). A break lower however targets 9900/9850 & 9750/9700. We could fall as far as very strong support at 94.50/9400. Longs need stops below 9350. Read next: Euro To US Dollar (EUR To USD): That's An Amazing USD Performance, Will USDCAD (Canadian Dollar) Stay Close? USDJPY (Japanese Yen) Beats Records! | FXMAG.COM Holding support at 102.00/101.50 allows a recovery to minor resistance at 104.50/105.00. Above 105.50 however look for 106, perhaps as far as 107.30/70. Shorts need stops above 108.50. Please email me if you need this report updated or Whatsapp: +66971910019 – To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk
Trading Signal for Gold (XAU/USD) on June 7-8, 2022: buy above $1,842 (21 SMA - descending wedge)

Gold Transformed! Gold Price (XAUUSD): From Haven To Anti-Dollar (USD)

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 25.04.2022 15:30
Gold lost 1.6% since the beginning of the day on Monday, testing $1900 precisely one week after an unsuccessful attempt to get above $2000. The essential factor that puts pressure on gold is the Fed's toughening rhetoric that triggers a broad sell-off of risky assets. Gold speculatively played its role as a haven for the war in Ukraine as it strengthened along with the US currency. Now gold is working as a commodity asset, turning into an anti-dollar with an inverse correlation to the US currency. Read next: (BTC) Bitcoin Priceslips To The Lows Of The Year. Crypto Regulations: Confusing Discussion In The US And The EU. Ether (ETH) And Monero (XMR) Highlighted | FXMAG.COM (...) it looks like the bulls capitulated locally The sharp declines on Friday and Monday seem to have broken the bullish momentum that was formed at the beginning of February. Last week's closing under the 50 SMA and the support areas of March and the first half of April did not attract new buyers. On the contrary, it looks like the bulls capitulated locally. Read next: Dollar changes pressure angle| FXMAG.COM (...) the gold might zero out the rally since the beginning of the year and go back to $1830 or get lower to $1780-1800 (...) In just a matter of ten days before the Fed meeting, the gold might zero out the rally since the beginning of the year and go back to $1830 or get lower to $1780-1800 before we might see a new buying impulse.
US inflation has peaked, but it will be a long slow descent | ING Economics

US Yields Have Declined! Gold Price (XAUUSD) Is Back In The Game! Gold Trades Near $1900, COVID In China Leave Investors Unsure

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 26.04.2022 10:25
The price of gold appears to be back above $1,900 per ounce on Tuesday, after a 3-day decline. The rise seems to have taken place with a slight weakening of the US dollar and a drop in US Treasury bond yields, which may have made bullion more attractive. Investors may be monitoring the deteriorating Covid virus situation in China after authorities in Beijing expanded testing to a larger part of the city The U.S. dollar appears to have retreated today from a two-year high reached during the previous session, while the 10-year bond yield may have fallen from a three-year high, retreating to around 2.8 percent. Given the growing uncertainty about the outlook for global economic growth, the market may be gauging the Federal Reserve's willingness to tighten monetary policy quickly. Additionally, investors may be monitoring the deteriorating Covid virus situation in China after authorities in Beijing expanded testing to a larger part of the city, raising fears of a shutdown of the capital. In addition, Russia told the world not to underestimate the significant risk of nuclear war, which it says it wants to reduce, and warned that conventional Western weapons are a target in Ukraine. Gold can be seen as a store of value during economic and political crises. Read next: Conotoxia - Who's Gonna Stop Dollar (USD)!? EUR/USD Plunging Below 1.00? What A Surprise! Crude Oil Price Goes Down!| FXMAG.COM European buyers have refused to buy millions of barrels of Urals crude from Rosneft PJSC Meanwhile, in the oil market, WTI crude futures appear to have risen to around $99.5 a barrel on Tuesday, after a two-day decline that took prices below $100. However, the supply situation appears to remain tight. There is still a risk that the EU could join the U.S. and U.K. in banning Russian oil imports as the war in Ukraine continues. European buyers have refused to buy millions of barrels of Urals crude from Rosneft PJSC, while Asian refiners have given up on Russian oil because of sanctions imposed on the company that carries the cargoes. As a result, the world on the one hand may be reducing oil demand by the prospect of weaker economic growth and lower demand from China due to the epidemic. On the other hand, there are still chances of reduced oil supply in Europe due to war and sanctions, which may put upward pressure on production. Thus, the price of WTI crude oil, due to the opposing factors, may remain in a consolidation of $92-114. Read next: Conotoxia - (USD) Dollar Index - Fed Floors It! Hawkish Rhetoric And Interest Rate Hike? British Pound In Crisis? GBP/USD Affected By Weak Retail Sales Data!| FXMAG.COM   Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Saxo Spotlight: What’s on investors and traders radars this week? - 27/06/22

A Market Crash Is Coming? Check How S&P 500, Crude Oil, Hang Seng, USDCNH And Other Assets Performs

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 26.04.2022 10:34
Macro 2022-04-26 08:34 6 minutes to read Summary:  Market sentiment stabilized yesterday ahead of the heart of earnings season kicking off today, with the slide in the Chinese renminbi halted after official moves signaled some support for the currency. Still, the threat of Covid lockdowns looms in Beijing with tens of millions set for testing. Elsewhere, Elon Musk is set to take Twitter private in a debt-heavy deal, oil rebounded from a deep sell-off and gold has tested existential support. What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - S&P 500 futures tested the 4,200 level yesterday as we highlighted was possible but found quick support before bouncing back to close above Friday’s close. That is a short-term positive signal but earning releases this week can still wreck this rebound trade, so we expect volatility to remain high over the coming days. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI.I) and China’s CSI300 (000300.I) - with another round of supportive rhetoric from central bank officials and pledge from the State Council to boost domestic consumption, markets found a bid in morning trading but their gains pared in the afternoon. Hang Seng Index was up 1.5% while CSI300 was down modestly. Chinese mega cap internet names traded in Hong Kong and retailers traded in the mainland were among the top gainers. HSBC reported in-line earnings, but common equity tier 1 (‘CET1’) capital ratio came at 14.1%, down 1.7 per centage point from 4Q21. Share price fell over 3%. Stoxx 50 (EU50.I) - signals from PBOC to support the Chinese economy and better than expected earnings from HSBC, UBS, Santander, and a FY profit guidance increase from Maersk are lifting equity sentiment with Stoxx 50 futures trading around the 3,735 level in early trading hours. That puts European equity futures back into the trading range from the past two weeks, but technically European equities remain weak it requires good news from earnings, China, and the war in Ukraine to move things higher. GBPUSD and USD/commodity currency and USD/EM pairs – with some relief in risk sentiment yesterday, the US dollar rally eased after first having extended its strength earlier in the day. As noted below, much of the force of the recent move has been linked by a jolt higher in USDCNH, which after a long period of quiet is finally catching up to the broader picture of USD strength and adding to that USD strength elsewhere. The weakest of currencies against the greenback in recent sessions have been commodity-linked, EM and Asian currencies with a significant exposure to China, but also sterling, which has suffered a vicious sell-off as the outlook for the UK economy rapidly deteriorates amidst soaring cost-of-living headwinds, cratering confidence, supply-side limitations, and massive external deficits. GBPUSD traders may eventually eye the ultimate support of 1.2000. USDCNH  at the center of the recent violent extension of the US dollar rally has been a marked weakening of the Chinese renminbi, which has come after a long period of extreme quiet even as volatility picked up elsewhere. Yesterday, China moved to cut the reserve-ratio-requirement for Chinese banks’ forex reserves by 1% (to 8% from 9%) to increase the supply of USD, a gesture suggesting that the recent pace of CNY devaluation has proceeded more rapidly than desired. The PBOC overnight promised targeted support for the economy, but the concerns linked to China’s zero-Covid strategy and threat weighs of a lockdown of Beijing similar to the recent experience in Shanghai.  Gold (XAUUSD)  trades back above $1900 supported by higher oil prices and a softer dollar. This following a two-day sell off that was triggered by aggressive US rate hike signals and a sharp drop in silver (XAGUSD) on growth concerns. With support around $1890 holding once again the yellow metal needs a break above support-turned-resistance at $1915. The Fed is currently on a collision course with the PBoC which needs to add stimulus on mounting growth fears, and it raises the question of whether the FOMC will be able to hike rates as aggressively as expected by the market. Until that question gets answered, the market is likely to get its directional input from oil (inflation and geo-risk gauge) as well as developments in China. Crude oil (OILUKJUN22 & OILUSJUN22)  bounced back following a two-day decline that briefly saw Bent crude dip below $100. A lockdown related drop in Chinese demand for fuel together with the prospect of a rapid succession of US rate hikes to curb growth have been the focus this past week. However, with the supply picture being as tight as it currently is, especially with Europe considering a ban on Russian crude imports, any signs of an improve situation in China would attract a renewed bid. Until then these major opposing forces are likely to keep the market rangebound and nervous. In Brent, only a break below $98 would signal additional and potential deep losses from technical selling. Resistance just above $106.50 where the 21- and 50-day moving averages meet. US Treasuries (IEF, TLT)  were sold late yesterday after posting a new 1-week low in yields, taking the yield for the 10-year benchmark back into the range above 2.82%. The high for the cycle in that important yield has been just above 2.95% - with 3.00% perhaps a psychological resistance ahead of the 2018 high near 3.26%. What is going on? US planting progress and crop conditions continue to highlight a challenging situation. A weekly report released Monday showed corn planting (CORNDEC22) had advanced by 3% to being 7% complete, the slowest pace in almost ten years and trailing last year’s pace of 17%. Winter wheat rated good/excellent dropped 3% to 27% and was near the worst on record. The planting delays and conditions have been caused by the weather being too cold, too wet, or a combination of both. Big grain harvests in North America are needed this year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reduced shipments out of the Black Sea, from where 25% of the global wheat export originates, while raising doubts about this year’s crop production in Ukraine. Twitter board agrees with Musk on deal.  The two parties agreed yesterday with a purchase price of $54.20/share translating into a takeover market value of $44bn and part of the deal is massive use of debt which multiplied with the current interest rates will eat most of Twitter’s immediate operating profits, but since the company is going private the profit generation is no longer the main objective. Our view is that Musk’s acquisition of Twitter could be a problem for Tesla going forward as governments may use Musk’s ownership of Twitter against him in negotiations with Tesla. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem says BoC considering 50 basis point hike.  In testimony before Parliament, Macklem admitted that the BoC “got some things wrong” in its policy mix, voiced concern about broadening price pressures and guided for further tightening. Bank of Canada rate expectations were actually slightly lower yesterday, with CAD moves of late, at least in USDCAD, yesterday more correlated with risk sentiment and crude oil prices. The Bank of Canada is already priced to hike at least 50 basis points at each of its next three meeting. USDJPY lacks direction ahead of BoJ meeting on Thursday. The Japanese yen gains yesterday and overnight were capped by a rebound in US treasury yields. Japan finance minister Suzuki said that there is no truth to the media report on Japan/US discussion on joint FX intervention. While there may be room for a further fall in USDJPY given the outsized gains we have seen so far, policy divergence between the Fed and Japan remains the key theme and any BOJ policy tweak this week remains on watch. US earnings recap.  Coca-Cola beat expectations yesterday and is seeing higher revenue growth than what analysts had expected suggesting analysts are behind the curve on inflation dynamics and what it means for revenue growth. Activision Blizzard also reported earnings yesterday, which is part of the entertainment industry, and reported worse than expected figures with revenue especially disappointing at $1.48bn vs est. $1.81bn. IMF warns on Asia stagflation risk.  IMF has said that the Asian region faces stagflationary outlook with growth being lower than previously expected and inflation being higher. The larger-than-expected slowdown in China due to prolonged or more widespread lockdowns, longer-than-expected slump in the property market, constitutes significant risk for Asia. Monetary tightening will be needed in most countries, with speed of tightening depending on domestic inflation developments and external pressures. IFO April German business confidence surprises on the upside.  The headline index was up at 91.8 versus an estimated 89.0. The current assessment index is moving upward too, at 97.2 versus estimated 95.9. Finally, the expectations index is out at 86.7 versus estimated 83.5. This is very positive, of course. But we think optimism will not last. There are several factors which will negatively impact the German economy in the coming months: the possible new cold war, prevalent supply chain disruptions, higher energy bills, the acceleration of deglobalisation etc. All of this will have negative consequences on the German export industry. Be ready for worse data in the coming months. Inflation is hitting the UK consumer hard. According to the latest ONS survey, 43 % of UK households said they encountered difficulties paying their energy bill in March and 43 % say they will probably be unable to save in the next twelve months. These data are compared with a year ago. Expect UK consumption to fall sharply in the coming months. The likelihood of a recession is increasing, of course. What are we watching next? Risk of further Chinese Covid lockdowns.  The current focus in China as Covid spreads there is Beijing, where partial shutdowns were already ordered yesterday of one region of the city, but with mass testing of 20 million Beijing area residents set to begin. The province of Inner Mongolia is also a focus on concerns that Covid-related disruptions are set to reduce rare earth metal production there. Technology earnings and their profit margins.  Net profit margins are confirming their downtrend in Q1 according to preliminary earnings data, but technology companies measured by the Nasdaq 100 are seeing less impact on margins from rising input costs. As technology companies are the biggest constituents in the main indices it crucial how these companies perform on earnings this week, but also that they can demonstrate less impact from inflation. The first test of this thesis is tonight with earnings from Microsoft, Alphabet, and Visa. Earnings Watch.  Today’s earnings focus is on Microsoft, Alphabet and Visa which are all reporting after the US market close, which is the first real test of the US technology sector for the Q1 following preliminary disappointments from Netflix and yesterday’s Activision Blizzard earnings. Today: Kweichow Moutai, Ganfeng Lithium, First Quantum Minerals, Tryg, FANUC, Canon, HSBC, Banco Santander, Iberdrola, Atlas Copco, Novartis, UBS Group, Kuehne + Nagel, Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, PepsiCo, UPS, Texas Instruments, Raytheon Technologies, General Electric, Mondelez, Chubb, 3M Wednesday: LONGi Green Energy, Teck Resources, DSV, Novozymes, Kone, Dassault Systemes, STMicroelectronics, Deutsche Bank, BYD, China Shenhua Energy, China Petroleum & Chemical, UniCredit, Keyence, GlaxoSmithKline, Lloyds Banking Group, Yara International, Iberdrola, Assa Abloy, SEB, Credit Suisse, Meta, Qualcomm, Amgen, Boeing, PayPal, ServiceNow, Ford, Southern Copper Thursday: Nokia, Sanofi, TotalEnergies, Denso, Hitachi, Barclays, Nordea, Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, Eli Lilly, Thermo Fisher, Merck, Comcast, Intel, McDonald’s, Linde, Caterpillar, Hershey, Twitter Friday: ICBC, China Yangtze Power, Midea Group, WuXi AppTec, TC Energy, Imperial Oil, Orsted, Neste Danske Bank, BASF, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, Ping An Insurance, COSCO Shipping, Eni, AstraZeneca, BBVA, Hexagon, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, AbbVie, Bristol-Myers, Honeywell, Colgate-Palmolive Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0900 – ECB’s de Cos to speak 1040 – ECB's de Cos to speak 1200 – Hungary Central Bank Rate Decision 1215 – ECB's Villeroy to speak 1230 – US Mar. Preliminary Durable Goods Orders 1300 – US Feb. S&P CoreLogic Home Price Index 1400 – US Apr. Conference Board Consumer Confidence 1400 – US Apr. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 1400 – US Mar. New Home Sales 0130 – Australia Q1 CPI  Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app:    
Trading tips for gold  | InstaForex

KOG Report: The week ahead for GOLD!! - 01.05.2022

Knights of Gold Knights of Gold 01.05.2022 20:31
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/0iiydXgu-XAUUSD-KOG-REPORT/ In last week’s KOG report we again suggested we weren’t convinced by the bullish sentiment in Gold and we would be targeting lower levels on Gold. We stated that as long as the price stays below that 1960-65 level our target will be the 1890-95 price point. We updated this during the week with our plans together with the levels and targets for the short destination which you can see has now completed. We completed 17 targets across numerous pairs in Camelot giving us a pip capture which again was through the roof. That’s along side all the free trade ideas we had posted on TradingView. So, what can we expect in the week ahead? We will be looking for some bullish momentum in Gold in the week ahead with the immediate level we want to target being the 1917-20 region and above that 1925-30. What we do want to see however is a swoop on some voids below which could give us a double bottom on the 4H timeframe. The concerning thing for us is we still have lower targets that are active on Gold, so we will trade the new week and first few days of the month with caution. There is a chance they can swing low into the void, take liquidity from there and then push the price up before facing resistance and then dropping it again! For that reason we will have the weeks bias a bullish but overall bias will remain bearish for now! We want to see how the 1925-30 price point takes in the price if it gets there. We have shown the levels we are looking at and together with the support and resistance levels. We will break this down during the course of the week and take it step by step making sure we remain in the right direction on Gold, as we have been. Again, that 1960 price level is very possible and again, if we get that far up, we will be looking for the price to remain below this level to maintain our bearish view. Theirs is every possibility this can begin to settle in between this range of 1875 and 1930 so look out for the range, plot the levels and use the range trading strategy we have shared on TradingView previously. We will link it to this post for you! So as always, we will trade this with two scenarios in mind. Please read this carefully as the we can do so much to create the roadmap on the chart without cluttering it with too many lines and arrows. Scenario 1: We open and price find support around where we have closed or just below here. We feel this would be a good opportunity to test the long trade into the first level of 1915-17 and breaking that the next level of 1930. 1930-35 is where we want to again assess the price action and the structure of the chart before deciding whether to hold our trades or to then release all the longs and test the short trade back down to test the patterns neckline. Please note, that breaking above the 1935 price region could entail the price going further into the higher resistance level of 1960-65 where again we will look for the short. From 1935-1960 we will switch to our level to level trading strategy holding partial longs from the lows, if we get the entry! Scenario 2: Price pushes up from the open. We will not go long, rather wait for a retest of support to go long or if it doesn’t hit the 1915-17 level, or wait for the 1915-17 level to either resist the price or turn into support. Once this is confirmed we will be happy to go long to target the higher levels for support levels until we reach 1930-35 and above that 1960. At 1960 we feel the opportunity again will arise to short the market down into the lower support regions starting at 1910. We will of course update during the week. In summary: We have a lower level of 1858 as a target and higher level of 1960 and above that 1995 again. We either want to lows to be complete to give us the entries for the longs into the higher levels, or, we want the high to be complete so we can short it again down into our lower targets. New week, new month, we have a rule in Camelot where we take it easy during the first few and last few days of the month. Let the market settle and find its feet, the trades will come, it just requires patience, and patience pays!! Hope this helps in preparation for the week ahead, we will update you as we go along as we usually do. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
Gold Price Has Been Affected By Fears Of Recession And Hawkish Rhetoric Of Fed (Federal Reserve)

KOG Report FOMC: What to look out for!

Knights of Gold Knights of Gold 04.05.2022 19:04
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/vnkW7Vje-XAUUSD-KOG-REPORT-FOMC/ This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price. We’re going to keep this one brief today as we’re not really interested in trading this on the intraday levels. Instead, we want to wait for key levels to break and act as support or resistance, or we want key levels to get hit where we can test the entries for the longer trades. As you can see we’ve hit the lower level we wanted on the KOG Report which was published on Sunday leaving the higher levels still open. We can still see some movement up to come, however, how low can they swing it if they want to before we see the rise at least to target the 1900 level. So here are the two scenarios we will be looking at for FOMC and potentially during the course of tomorrow, unless anything changes. We’re going to use the 1HR chart with the 4HR Key levels, so it makes it easier to follow the price. Scenario 1: They push the price up from here, the first level we want to look for a reaction in price is the 1890-95 price point. This is where there could be an opportunity to short the market down into the 1850-40 price region. We will then be looking around 1830-25 for a grab and potentially this could represent an opportunity to then trade this back up to where the price broke out from and maybe higher. Breaking the 1890-95 level then we're looking at 1914 and above that 1930-35. Scenario 2: They push the price down, its likely they will swoop just below the 1850-45 price level and then attempt to recover the price back up to target the 1900 level and potentially beyond. Breaking the 1840 level will likely mean they will hit our 1835 target where again we will likely see a reaction in price to potentially take the long trade. In Summary: We have the levels of 1830-25 below and we have the levels of 1925-35 above. If they really want to move the price they can move it to either of these extreme levels. The best option on funds like this is to sit out, wait for the to target the levels, let the price show signs of exhaustion and then take your entry. Trying to catch this up and down in high volume high volatility is potluck, you’ll either get it right or you’ll get it wrong. Hope this helps in preparation for FOMC. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
Oil falls, gold continues range-trade | Oanda

Is The US Dollar The Global Safe-Haven?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 04.05.2022 16:33
Global investors continue to pile into the US Dollar making it the primary safe-haven trade.  This may eventually trigger a broad and deep selloff in U.S. stocks. As the USD continues to strengthen, corporate profits for US multinationals will begin to disappear. The following chart by Finviz shows the percentage the USD has appreciated against all the major global currencies during the past month: In the current market environment, it’s imperative to assess your trading plan, portfolio holdings, and cash reserves. Experienced traders know what their downside risk is and adapt as necessary. Successful traders manage risk by utilizing stop-loss orders, rebalancing existing positions, reducing portfolio holdings, liquidating investments, and moving into cash. USDJPY UP +13.29% VS S&P 500 -12.76% The S&P 500 peaked on January 5, 2022, and after 3-months put in a lower top on March 29, 2022.  In comparison, the US Dollar USD has gained steadily throughout 2022 as noted in the FX currency pairs USDJPY, USDCHF, and USDCAD. Interestingly we can see that as the USD is picking up steam to the upside simultaneously stocks are selling off. It appears that the money that is coming out of the equity markets is going into cash. But not just any cash but specifically into US dollars. The global appetite for the US dollar and its subsequent rise can kill the stock market as US corporate profits dry up and everything the US consumer purchases in US dollars rise to levels that are no longer sustainable. UNITED STATES DOLLAR • GLOBAL COMPARISON • OANDA • DAILY GBPUSD LOST -36.30% 2007-08 During the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008, the British Pound vs the US Dollar GBPUSD lost -36.30% in 14-months. Translation: the USD gained +36.30 against the GBP! The current drop in the GBPUSD has been roughly -13.00% over the last 8-months. Potentially the GBPUSD could move down another -20% over the next 6-months or longer if the downturn lasts for an extended period. Translation: the USD has the potential to gain an additional +20% against the GBP! GBPUSD • BRITISH POUND VS US DOLLAR • FXCM • MONTHLY AUDUSD LOST -39.20% 2007-08 During the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008, the Australian Dollar vs the US Dollar AUDUSD lost -39.20% in just 4-months. Translation: the USD gained +39.20 against the AUD! The current drop in the AUDUSD has been roughly -8.42% over the last 1-month. Potentially the AUDUSD could move down another -30% over the next 3-months or longer if the downturn lasts for an extended period. Translation: the USD has the potential to gain an additional +30% against the AUD! AUDUSD • AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR VS US DOLLAR • FXCM • MONTHLY DISCOVER HOW TO MANAGE DRAWDOWNS Drawdowns are critical as the larger the loss the more difficult it is to make up. A loss of 10% requires an 11% gain to recover, however, a 50% loss requires a 100% gain to recover, and a 60% loss requires an even more daunting 150% gain to simply return to break even. Recovery time also varies significantly depending upon the magnitude of the drawdown. A 10% drawdown can typically be recovered in weeks or a few months while a 50% drawdown may take several years to recover. Depending on a trader's age they may not have the time to wait on the recovery nor the patience. Therefore, successful traders know it’s critical to keep their drawdowns within reason as most of them learned this principle the hard way! Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! Especially in times like these, traders must understand where opportunities are and how to turn this knowledge into profits. As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades to subscribers. Recently, we entered new trades, all of which hit their first profit target levels and then eventually triggered their break-even profit stop-loss orders on their remaining position. After booking our profits we are now safely in cash preparing for our next trades. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list. Our core objective is to protect our valuable capital while identifying suitable risk vs reward opportunities for profits in new and emerging trends. WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS? Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens. Historically, bonds have served as one of these safe-havens, but that is not proving to be the case this time around. So if bonds are off the table, what bond alternatives are there and how can they be deployed in a bond replacement strategy? We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Oil jumps on EU ban, gold rises after Fed

Oil jumps on EU ban, gold rises after Fed

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 05.05.2022 15:30
Oil prices leap on EU oil ban Oil prices leapt higher overnight as markets digested the impact of the proposed EU ban on Russian oil imports. Additionally, the OPEC+ JTC is indicating that there will be no change in the monthly schedule of production increases, with some members in fact noting that China’s demand has slumped. Brent crude rose by 4.05% to USD 111.10 overnight, with WTI climbing by 3.90% to USD 107.55 a barrel. ​ In Asia, Brent and WTI have had a muted session, adding just 0.50% each to USD 110.60 and USD 108.10 respectively. In the bigger picture, Brent crude is still in a broader USD 100.00 to USD 120.00 range, and WTI in a USD 95.00 to USD 115.00 range. Only a weekly close above or below those levels signals a new directional move. Overall, we remain in a situation where the Ukraine/Russia conflict and the inability of OPEC+ to even meet their pre-agreed quotas is keeping spot prices tight, while China’s covid-zero-induced slowdown is acting to cap price increases. With the sanction situation on Russia escalating, and with Russian retaliation not out of the question, I believe the risks of the Ukraine conflict becoming more fully priced into energy markets are increasing.   Gold rallies on a weaker US dollar Gold rose sharply overnight as the US dollar plummeted post-FOMC after the Fed hiked by 0.50% as expected, and eased concerns around future 0.75% hikes. Gold rose 0.70% to USD 1881.50 an ounce, before continuing its rally in Asia, gaining an impressive 1.10% to USD 1901.65 today. The move in Asia is unusual, even more so because other asset classes in Asia are not showing a strong continuation of the US dollar sell-off seen overnight, although Asian currencies have rallied modestly in trading today. I suspect the buying is coming out of China as that market had returned from holidays today. From a technical perspective, gold reclaimed the 100-day moving average at USD 1881.00 overnight, which becomes intraday support, followed by USD 1850.00 and USD 1835.00 an ounce. Gold faces resistance at USD 1920.00 and USD 1960.00 an ounce. It is too early to say that gold prices have turned a corner. If the US dollar correction lower continues, then gold can certainly continue rallying. But if the US dollar sell-off runs out of steam, then gold will struggle to maintain gains above USD 1900.00 an ounce.   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Gold prices are embracing the FOMC decision. Oil surges as EU nears Russian ban, gold gets groove back

Gold prices are embracing the FOMC decision. Oil surges as EU nears Russian ban, gold gets groove back

Ed Moya Ed Moya 05.05.2022 16:08
Oil soars on EU oil sanctions, Fed Crude prices surged after EU outlined plans on phasing Russian oil and following the FOMC decision that signaled Wall Street has passed peak hawkishness. The oil market will remain tight going forward and now that a peak in the dollar is in place crude prices should have extra support here.  The latest EIA crude oil inventory report posted a surprise build but energy traders fixated over the strategic petroleum reserves falling to the lowest levels in over two decades. US production remained steady at 11.9 million barrels a day, which suggests producers are not rushing to increase output as rig counts have steadily been rising.  The focus will shift to OPEC+ and that is likely to be an easy meeting that keeps the gradual increase output strategy in place.   Gold Gold prices are embracing the FOMC decision that suggests Wall Street has passed peak hawkishness.  Fed Chair Powell removed the risk of 75 basis point rate increase at the June meeting and suggested that hikes could come down to 25 basis points once inflation comes down.  Gold got its groove back as a firm top has been put in for the dollar. Even if inflation continues to run hot, investors will take comfort from Fed Chair Powell’s words and that should be good news for gold investors.  Gold may find tentative resistance at the USD 1900 level, but momentum traders might pounce if price action breaks through over the next day.  This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. TEST
Oil trades sideways, gold pares gains

Oil trades sideways, gold pares gains

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 06.05.2022 10:13
After initially leaping higher after the proposed EU ban on Russian oil was released, oil markets have spent the past two sessions consolidating those gains. Overnight, oil traded in a wide and choppy range, but ultimately, Brent crude finished just 0.80% higher at USD 110.95, and WTI rose 0.95% to USD 108.55 a barrel. In Asia, both contracts are almost unchanged in pre-weekend trading.   The news that the US will launch tenders to restock 60 million barrels of oil back into its SPR had no impact on prices overnight. Most likely as the tender exercise won’t start until autumn, an eon in these markets. Similarly, the OPEC+ announcement that it would proceed with its pre-planned 430,000 bpd production increase had no impact either. That is because, with OPEC+ compliance at over 160%, there is zero chance of certain members filling that quota anywhere as production challenges impact Nigeria and other African members.   That leaves oil at the mercy of the Ukraine/Russia conflict and the EU oil ban supporting the downside, while China slowdown fears, with some OPEC members noting much-reduced demand from the mainland, acting as a cap on upside price moves. I still believe markets are under-pricing Ukraine/Russia risks, but that story will have to wait for another day it seems.   Brent crude has formed a triple top at USD 114.75 a barrel, which will be a formidable barrier in the near term. Support lies at USD 103.50 a barrel and I am sticking to my broader USD 100.00 to USD 120.00 a barrel wider range for the months ahead for now. WTI has resistance at USD 111.50 with support at USD 100.00 a barrel. Once again, I remain comfortable with a USD 95.00 to USD 115.00 a barrel outlook in the medium term.   Gold is actually holding up quite well Like Grace Jones, gold is a slave to the rhythm, in this case, the rhythm of the US dollar. Gold staged quite an impressive rally in early trading yesterday, but as the US dollar soared, it gave back all those gains to finish 0.23% lower at USD 1877.00 an ounce, where it remains in moribund Asian trading.   Still, given the moves seen in other asset classes, gold is holding up reasonably well. It is steady despite US 10-year yields moving above 3.0% once again, and it is definitely outperforming bitcoin right now. That could be coincident with the return of China from holidays, or that there is more than a little risk-hedging based buying quietly going through the market.   Gold looks set to vacillate around its 100-day moving average, today at USD 1881.65, in a wide but real range of USD 1850.00 to USD 1920.00 an ounce, for the time being. Only failure of the break-out triangle apex at USD 1835.00 swings gold back into bearish territory. That said, gold needs to close above resistance at USD 1920.00, and preferably USD 1960.00 an ounce to get the gold bugs excited again. I see more whipsaw trading ranges in the days ahead.   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
US Close: Another strong employment report, Wages growth slows, Stocks volatile, Oil rallies, Gold steadies

US Close: Another strong employment report, Wages growth slows, Stocks volatile, Oil rallies, Gold steadies

Ed Moya Ed Moya 06.05.2022 23:33
US stocks appear to be on a permanent rollercoaster ride as investors debate continued signs of a strong economy alongside rising rates, which remains a drag on higher valuation companies. For Wall Street to remain fully confident in piling back into stocks, inflation needs to be showing signs it is easing and that is not happening yet. ​ ​   Market conditions look dangerous but some of these discounts are looking very attractive. ​ It seems that the base case is still that the inflation peak is in place and that the Fed will look to signal a gradual tightening path. Unless inflation shocks prove otherwise, the risk-reward ratios for some of the beloved mega-cap tech stocks are looking attractive. ​ It won’t happen immediately, but when the economy starts to show signs of weakness, that will give investors the green light to buy stocks.   Investors just can’t confidently buy stocks as too much uncertainty persists with what will happen with global growth and how far the Fed will take tightening beyond the summer. ​   NFP The US labor market remains strong as broadbased hiring continues. The economy added 428,000 in April, much more than the analysts estimate of 380,000, also matching the slight downward revision in the prior month. Wage pressures might be showing signs of easing as average hourly earnings ticked lower. ​ Still most signs suggest the labor market is tight and that wage pressures are not quite ready to post a meaningful drop. ​ ​ The labor market remains robust and that should keep the Fed’s half-point tightening on cruise control until the Jackson Hole Symposium.   Oil Crude prices just want to head higher as energy traders completely fixate over the looming European sanctions on Russian oil. ​ No one wants to be on the wrong side of a major crude supply disruption headline, so whatever oil price dips that happen will be short-lived. ​ US oil rig counts continue to rise, but that has not led to increased production. ​ The weekly Baker Hughes report showed oil rig counts rose by 5 to 557 rigs. ​   Gold Gold prices are still licking their wounds following the bond market selloff. ​ Eventually investors will need additional safe-havens, so gold might start to attract some flows if the dollar softens as the global bond market selloff extends. The dollar is slightly softer today, but that doesn’t mean it is ready to lose its crown. ​ Gold could still remain vulnerable to further downward pressure if inflation does not show further signs of peaking next. ​   Gold is trending right between the 50- and -200 day simple moving averages but still looks like it isn’t quite ready to rally. ​ Next week will be pivotal for inflation expectations and for Fed speak that could confirm their commitment to tightening by half a point per meeting until the Jackson Hole Symposium. ​   Read on Oanda This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Oil, Gold, Bitcoin (BTC) analysis.  What could happen in the markets?

Oil, Gold, Bitcoin (BTC) analysis. What could happen in the markets?

Ed Moya Ed Moya 09.05.2022 07:07
Oil Crude prices are steadily rising as the EU is making progress towards its Russia oil sanctions ban. The oil market will remain tight going forward now that OPEC+ is set on delivering meager output increases and as US production struggles despite rising rig counts. The biggest uncertainty for the crude demand outlook remains the outlook for the Chinese economy. China won’t be abandoning their zero-COVID policy anytime soon and that will keep the short-term crude demand outlook vulnerable. China’s COVID situation might not be improving anytime soon and now that the data is showing the impact of business restrictions is more widespread than just to Shanghai and Beijing. Oil will remain a volatile trade going forward with most of the fundamentals still pointing to higher prices. Gold Just when gold seems to be showing signs it is getting its luster back, the bond market says ‘not so fast’.  Gold continues to struggle in this current environment of surging global bond yields and that might last a little while longer as some central banks for the purpose of defeating inflation might be willing to send their respective economies into a recession. Gold’s awful few weeks of trade has seen a collapse of the $1900 level and that should prove to be key resistance now.  If the bond market selloff accelerates and the dollar surges, gold could be vulnerable to a drop towards $1835 and if that does not hold, $1800 might be targeted.   Bitcoin Confidence in crypto markets is waning after Bitcoin tumbled below the $37,000 level following the surge in global bond yields.  If risk appetite does not return, Bitcoin could be vulnerable to a significant drop towards the $30,000 level.  Choppy trading between $35,000 and $40,000 could be where Bitcoin settles if Wall Street does not price in much more tighter monetary policy by the Fed.
|XAUUSD| Gold Price To Plunge Below $1800!? KOG Report: The week ahead for GOLD!! - 08/05/22

|XAUUSD| Gold Price To Plunge Below $1800!? KOG Report: The week ahead for GOLD!! - 08/05/22

Knights of Gold Knights of Gold 08.05.2022 21:35
In last weeks KOG Report we were looking for some bullish momentum for Gold which we didn’t get until the end of the week. We wanted to see the price swoop liquidity from below in the immediate support regions and then begin an incline to target the higher levels we had identified before then dropping into the lower KOG targets. Instead, we can see the price continued the decline until the later part of the week completing our lower target and then beginning a small incline in price. Did it go to plan? No! We hit the target but not how we wanted to. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/u9lYCBa2-XAUUSD-KOG-REPORT/ So what can we expect in the week ahead? Not much has changed from our view from last week, we’re still looking for some bullish price action to target that higher resistance level where we want to see a reaction before then taking the swoop of the low. There is a huge possibility they can open by undercutting the low from last week, so this is a key area we want to keep an eye on. The region stands around the 1850 psychological level where there is likely to be a reaction in price action. If we open and target that low without breaking it this time then there is a chance, they will take this up before again trying to bring it down again. So, we will use the same NFP chart we used last week and look for the same areas again this week for our entries and exits. As always, we will trade this with two scenarios in mind. Scenario 1: They open and push the price down first, targeting that 1850-55 price region. Based on support at this price point we feel this would represent a good opportunity to go long on the market to target that 1915, 1920 and above that 1927-30 price point. As the chart illustrates, this is where we will be waiting again to short the market back down into the 1885, 1850 and below that 1830 price points. Scenario 2: This would be ideal for us. They open and push the price to the upside targeting that 1915 level and above that the 1925-30 price region. This is where if we have take any long trades we will exit and then look for resistance to target the lower levels of 1850 and below that 1830. Our targets for the week are: Lower: 1845 1833 1821 Higher: 1895 1917 1933 1940 In summary: We are level to level at the moment following Excalibur where ever it is taking us. We’re waiting for the higher of lower extreme levels to take our longer term positions for either the long into the 1930 price region from below, or, the short from the higher key level above. The ideal scenario as we said is for the price to push up during the early part of the week and then take the decline we are waiting for. Where are we targeting to the downside? Let’s just say we have a target around the 1790 price point. Whether it gets there or not is to be seen, but this is what we’re looking at in Camelot. As always, we’ll update this during the course of the week with our morning reviews and the changes in our plans. Hope this helps in preparation for the week ahead, we will update you as we go along as we usually do. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
Crude Oil: This News May Get Drivers Down! 380 US Dollars Per One Crude Oil Barrel!?

Crude Oil Extends Losses, (XAUUSD) Gold Price Under Pressure | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 10.05.2022 21:32
Oil slips closer to USD 100 Oil prices are slightly lower again today and not far from double-digit territory as traders grapple with the prospect of recessions and a tightening of Chinese restrictions. The unwillingness and, more accurately, inability of OPEC+ to turn the taps on more is keeping oil prices very elevated but at a little over USD 100, it’s more comfortable than was looking probable at times over the last couple of months. The EU struggling to find a coordinated response on Russian oil is possibly helping to alleviate some near-term pressures, although progress with Hungary is reportedly being made. This also comes as some OPEC members warn of dwindling energy capacity as a result of underinvestment, perhaps a sign that we should get used to these higher prices. Gold struggling as central banks raise their game Uncertainty and risk aversion in the markets is doing little to support gold at the moment, with the dollar instead being favoured and the yellow metal under heavy pressure. Since coming within a whisker of USD 2,000 a few weeks ago, gold has fallen more than 7% and looks vulnerable to further losses. Inflation is still extremely high and economic uncertainty is weighing heavily on risk assets. But central banks are being very aggressive to try and contain price pressures which appears to be getting in the way of gold retaining the gains it made earlier in the year when they were still in denial. For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Asian currencies stage a technical rebound | Oanda

Where (USD) US Dollar Is Going To Head To In The Next Few Days? May S&P 500 And Gold Become Volatile Shortly? | Daily Reprieve or More | Monica Kingsley

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 11.05.2022 14:17
S&P 500 modest risk-on turn talked yesterday, is underway – with adequate support from bonds. That means the dollar is going to get under daily selling pressure, with positive consequences for assets spanning commonidities, precious metals and sure supporting tech as well (looking at TLT to cast a decisive vote for Nasdaq). Unfolding just fine, but what about the CPI effect? Likely to temper the oh so fast inflation theme, at least temporarily – and that would take pressure off the Fed‘s hand being twisted by the markets. Note though how both the 2-year and 10-year Treasury paused over the last days. Together with the arriving as anticipated negative quarterly GDP print, the temporary slowdown in pace of inflation would get an ally in retreating (especially long-term) Treasury yields reflecting the darkening real economy prospects. Time for a relief S&P 500 rally with both tech and value participation, if only HYG can perform somewhat better. Time for a relief S&P 500 rally with both tech and value participation, if only HYG can perform somewhat better. The bulls have a chance, and can run with it as best as they can. Cryptos thus far are modestly leaning in the „local bottom is in“ direction (in spite of the tectonic Tether developments), so the odds are for price gains across the board (at the expense of the dollar) during today – as long as markets interpret the upcoming CPI reading as slowing down / slowly peaking. Yes, since Jun 2020 when I started to talk early effects of inflation, the last week has been the first time when I raised the good likelihood of inflation making a local peak when May / Jun CPI readings come in, only to spring quickly back to life on the „economy is slowing, do something“ change in tune of demands made to the Fed. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM At these trying times for real asset bulls, let‘s take the proper precious metals perspective, enjoy the rich caption: It‘s the dollar, yields and miners coming back to life that would mark the coming upleg arrival Plenty of upside risk to become evident in 2H 2022, with my Monday‘s article covering the game plan for turnaround across the many assets on my daily watch. It‘s the dollar, yields and miners coming back to life that would mark the coming upleg arrival. Lean times until then. Read next: (EUR/USD) German Inflation Meets Forecasts, Pound Sterling Continues To Weaken (EUR/GBP, GBP/USD), (EUR/JPY) Japanese Yen Strengthens As Investors Seek Safe-Haven Assets| FXMAG.COM There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Oil prices rise as demand outstrips supply

Crude Oil (USOIL) Trades Quite Lower, Australian Dollar Has Weakened Against US Dollar (AUDUSD), Gold Price Has Slid | Orbex

Jing Ren Jing Ren 12.05.2022 09:21
AUDUSD saw brief recovery The Australian dollar struggles as Beijing vows to support its Covid-hit economy. A drop below the psychological level of 0.7000 near this year’s low may have put the Aussie on a bearish trajectory in the medium-term. On the hourly chart, the RSI’s double bottom in the oversold area may cause a limited rebound. Selling interest could be expected at 0.7100 at the origin of the latest sell-off. A drop below the intermediate support at 0.6920 would extend losses towards June 2020’s lows around 0.6820. Read next: Tech Stocks Plunging!? Trade Desk Earnings Announcement Pushes Tech Giant Stock Down, Russian Ruble Strengthening and Ford Motor Co.  XAUUSD tests demand area Bullion steadied after the US CPI receded in April. The price action has found some support at the base of the February bullish breakout. A bullish RSI divergence indicates a slowdown in the downward momentum, a prerequisite for a reversal. 1868 is a key resistance and a breakout would confirm the demand zone and prompt sellers to cover their bets. Then 1910 is the last hurdle before sentiment would turn around. On the downside, a break below 1831 would send the precious metal to the psychological level of 1800. Read next: (BTC) Bitcoin’s Price Tanks Along With Equities. U.S. Stock Market Awaits CPI Report, Poor Performance From The FTSE 100.  USOIL bounces higher WTI crude rallies as Russia retaliates by sanctioning European gas companies. A fall below the rising trendline near 106.00 has put the bulls on the defensive. The price has met bids at 98.50 and in conjunction with a bullish RSI divergence could attract more buying interest. Optimism may gain traction if buyers succeed in holding above this demand zone. A close above support-turned-resistance at 107.00 would put the bulls back in the game. Then a break above 111.00 could trigger an extended rally above 117.00.
US Close – ISM hits 2-year low, Au Revoir 3.00% on recession worries, Choppy waters for Stocks, Commodity Markets tired of softening, Bitcoin tests $18K waters

Crude Oil Jumps, (XAUUSD) Gold Price Under Pressure | Oanda

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 12.05.2022 16:36
Oil markets remain volatile Oil prices spiked overnight, led by a combination of Shanghai reopening, potential gas supply disruption through Ukraine, Russian sanctions on EU energy entities and a plunge in gasoline inventories in the US. Brent crude rose 5.90% to USD 107.50, and WTI leapt 6.60% higher to USD 105.50 a barrel. In Asia, the risk aversion selling sweeping other asset classes in Asia today has pushed oil prices slightly lower. Brent crude fell 1.20% to USD 106.25, and WTI fell 1.10% to USD 104.40 a barrel. The continuing squeeze on US gasoline, diesel and other distillates is another supportive factor With tensions seemingly ratcheting higher after Russia sanctioned ex-Gazprom JVs in Europe, along with reduced trans-Ukraine pipeline flows, there is limited downside for oil prices in the near term. The continuing squeeze on US gasoline, diesel and other distillates is another supportive factor. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM Brent crude has formed a nice trendline support going back to January 2022 at USD 101.50, while WTI has formed the same pattern at USD 98.50 a barrel. Resistance remains at USD 114.75 and USD 111.50 a barrel respectively. Failure of the respective USD 101.50 and USD 98.50 trendline supports is likely to provoke a much stronger test of USD 100.00 for Brent, and USD 95.00 for WTI this time around. Eastern European tensions mean this is not my base case, however. I am sticking to my broader calls for the past two months. Brent crude remaining between USD 100.00 to USD 120.00, and WTI between USD 95.00 and USD 115.00 a barrel. Gold survives another day Gold probed the downside overnight, testing support in the USD 1835.00 an ounce region, before rallying to a 0.75% gain, closing at USD 1852.00 an ounce as US yields fell and risk-hedging flows appeared. In Asia gold is relatively quiet compared to the volatility seen in other asset classes today. It has edged 0.17% lower to USD 1848.20 an ounce. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM Gold’s support critical near-term support remains the triangle apex at USD 1835.00, the breakout of which in early February, signalled the gold rally to USD 2060.00 an ounce. Its importance is confirmed by the nearby 200-day moving average (DMA), today at USD 1836.00 an ounce. A daily close under USD 1835.00 would be an ominous technical development. Gold has resistance at USD 1860.00 and USD 1884.00 an ounce, its 100-day moving average Failure of USD 1835.00 sets up a test of support at USD 1820.00 and then potentially USD 1780.00 an ounce. Failure of the latter suggests a deeper correction to USD 1700.00. Gold has resistance at USD 1860.00 and USD 1884.00 an ounce, its 100-day moving average. Read next: (BTC) Bitcoin’s Price Tanks Along With Equities. U.S. Stock Market Awaits CPI Report, Poor Performance From The FTSE 100. If the risk-aversion selloff sweeping other asset classes, notably cryptos, accelerates, gold does stand to benefit. Especially is haven buyers also pile into US bond markets, pushing the US yield curve lower. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Should Drivers Worry About Fuel Prices Again? Will Crude Oil Price Go Up!?

The ugly crypto meltdown | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 12.05.2022 11:03
US inflation data didn’t print a soft-enough figure to reverse the market selloff. Disappointing US inflation data sent another shock wave to the US stock markets sending all major US indices tumbling on Wednesday. The S&P500 lost more than 1.5%, while Nasdaq tumbled more than 3%. Bitcoin slumped below the 2021 lows on the back of a broad-based risk-off selloff, and panic due to TerraUSD losing its dollar peg earlier this week. The US dollar remained upbeat, and the dollar index returned above the 104 mark as the lower-than-expected cool down in the US inflation figure revived the Fed hawks. Gold rebounded from the 200-DMA, as the US 10-year yield eased despite yesterday’s higher-than-expected inflation print in the US The pound-dollar is testing the 1.22 this morning as the UK-European relationship is souring on the Northern Ireland headache. Gold rebounded from the 200-DMA, as the US 10-year yield eased despite yesterday’s higher-than-expected inflation print in the US, as US crude saw a decent dip buying interest below the $100 per barrel, even with the souring prospects of a healthy global economic recovery. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM   Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:28 Panic in cryptocurrencies as Terra loses dollar peg 2:22 Coinbase down on SEC filing about bankruptcy 4:08 Markets down on softer cool down in US inflation 6:37 Disney down, Rivian up after earnings announcement 7:25 USD up, pound down on souring EU-UK relations 8:23 Gold, oil rebound Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.
Gold Price Has Been Affected By Fears Of Recession And Hawkish Rhetoric Of Fed (Federal Reserve)

Gold Price Fails Essential Support, But The Bulls Still Have A Chance | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 13.05.2022 11:34
A sell-off in the equity market and a new wave of flight to the dollar on Thursday provided the perfect combination to knock out gold, which slipped to $1810 in thin trading on Friday morning, falling to its lowest level since early February. The current decline in the price makes us keep a close eye on further developments Right now, it’s up to gold to decide whether we see a double top formation or whether the bulls are gaining strength and liquidity ahead of a new multi-month rising momentum. The current decline in the price makes us keep a close eye on further developments. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM A consolidation of the week under $1830 would reinforce that signal Yesterday, gold took a sharp plunge under the 200 SMA, which is often a bearish factor for the instrument. A consolidation of the week under $1830 would reinforce that signal. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM A potential bull target, in this case, could be the $2500 area This would open the way for another roughly 25% drop into the $1350 area, the area of the 2015-2018 highs. If we see an uptick in buyers’ in the hours and days ahead, we could say that gold is in a correction. Potentially, a reversal to the upside from these levels could signal the start of a new wave of long-term growth, the first impulse of which was in 2018-2020, followed by a prolonged wide side trend. A potential bull target, in this case, could be the $2500 area.
UK retail sales dip as confidence falls to another all-time low

Soaring Food Prices!? Indian Crops Limited! Chinese GDP Disappoints, Power Of US Dollar Humiliates Gold Price Attempt To Gain | Saxo Bank

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 16.05.2022 09:53
Summary:  The strong close on Wall Street Friday has not brightened the mood for the start of this week, as China reported far worse than expected GDP data that soured sentiment overnight. In other news, the global food supply concerns have ratcheted higher as the second largest wheat grower, India, has shut off exports of the food after a recent heat wave has damaged its crop. And in precious metals, the gold rally has fully broken down through all major supports as the strong USD tightens liquidity on virtually everything.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - US equities rose into the close on Friday with the S&P 500 futures closing above the big 4,000 level, but they are already retreating this morning trading below 4,000 again with the news of a major wheat export ban from India due to a failed harvest putting more pressure on inflation and food costs. Our view has not changed much on equities. We remain defensive and believe investors should fade every short-term rally. Inflation will continue to put pressure on central banks to tighten financial conditions even more from current already tight levels. Commodities are still by far the most critical asset class to get exposure to in your asset allocation portfolio. Mainland China and Hong Kong stocks pared early gains on weak China data. Hang Seng Index (HSI.I), Hang Seng TECH (HSTECH.I) and CSI300 (000300.I) opened higher on news that China has cut the mortgage interest rate floor for first-home buyers and on optimism that a gradual lift of lockdowns in Shanghai will brighten the outlook.  But markets lost momentum on weak Chinese data releases (more below). Stoxx 50 (EU50.I) - European equities continued higher on Friday driven by a big sentiment shift in US equities, but Stoxx 50 futures are pushing lower today with the 3,600 level being the big support level to watch. Higher wheat prices (limit up today) could add more pressure on European households and negatively impact consumer confidence. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM USD pairs – the US dollar was pushed lower on Friday as the currency seems to be the great liquidity indicator of the moment and correlates with swings in risk sentiment. Interesting to note to start this week that it has jumped aggressively back higher versus riskier currencies, like AUD (especially due to weak Chinese economic data) but that the Japanese yen is outperforming (more below) as safe haven US treasuries caught a bid to start this week after a modest sell-off. For EURUSD, watching the 1.0341 low from 2017 for whether the path to parity and lower opens up from here. JPY pairs – at times in recent sessions, the JPY has served as an even higher beta currency to risk sentiment than the US dollar, likely because safe haven sovereign bonds have shown fitful signs of reverting to their old behavior as safe havens when the market is suffering a general deleveraging event. Watching whether the sell-off in JPY pairs since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine comes fully undone in coming sessions if yields at the long end of the US Treasury yield curve continue to push lower. GBPJPY has already broken back below its mid-February high, while EURJPY has teased a similar move (the 132.50-133.00). Gold (XAUUSD) trades back to unchanged on the year after suffering the biggest weekly fall in almost a year. The relentless rise of the dollar and the markets belief in the FOMC’s ability to bring down inflation has reduced gold’s appeal and it culminated last week with a drop to a three-month low at $1800. The recent weakness was led by silver (XAGUSD) partly being dragged down by weakness across industrial metals. The loss of momentum and price weakness during the past few weeks had by last Tuesday reduced the hedge fund long to a three-month low and down 58% from the March peak. Gold remains technically challenged with a break above its 200-day moving average at $1838 needed for that to change. Crude oil (OILUKJUL22 & OILUSJUN22) trades lower after dismal economic data out of China highlighted the price the country is paying for the government’s Covid Zero policy, with industrial output and consumer spending falling to the worst levels since the pandemic began in 2020. Brent crude oil remains rangebound within a $100 to $114 range with tight supply and sanctions against Russia being offset by global growth worries, led by China where crude oil processing last month slumped to the lowest level in two years. While US gasoline futures hit a record last week, Iran teasingly has been out saying it can double oil exports if the market needs it. US Treasuries (TLT, IEF) – US treasury yields rose Friday on the sudden improvement in risk sentiment but have faded back lower as Asia has stumbled out of the blocks to start this week on ugly Chinese economic data. Every quarter-percent marker on the 10-year yield benchmark graph has seen sticky price action – so 3.00% is support and the next resistance levels are 2.75% and then 2.50% (the benchmark trading this morning near 2.90%). What is going on? Weaker than expected Chinese economic data out overnight. China’s latest economic data spooked sentiment overnight, as April Industrial Production was recorded down –2.9% year-on-year vs. +0.5% expected, and April Retail Sales were down –11.1% YoY vs. -6.6% expected. The Surveyed Jobless Rate rose to 6.1% in April vs. 6.0% expected and 5.8% in March. Residential property sales were down 32.2% YoY. The impact of Covid lockdowns amidst China’s zero Covid policy is clear, although an easing of the Shanghai lockdowns is currently ongoing. Wheat (ZWN2) jumped by the exchange limit of $12.475 overnight after India over the weekend moved to restrict exports, thereby adding further risks to an already tight global market. Just a few weeks ago the market had expected exports this year would almost double from last year’s record 8 million tons, but a record-breaking heatwave during the past month has parched the crop during a crucial period, driving expectations for a slump in yields. Last week the USDA lowered its forecast for US wheat production by more than expected while war-hit Ukraine could see its production and exports slump to the lowest since 2012/13. In addition, European growers have already been struggling with warm and dry weather this early in the season, raising concerns about the output from the world’s top exporter. Adding to all this the dollar, which has risen by close to 10% this year, and the pain for key emerging market buyers of wheat is clear for all to see. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM Is Musk looking for an escape route? As we alluded to a couple of times last week on our daily Saxo Market Call podcast the relentless decline in technology stocks was putting pressure on Musk’s acquisition of Twitter as his premium looked more and more outrageous. Over the weekend, Elon Musk said the deal is on hold until verification of the size of bots on the social media platform, and Twitter followed up saying that Musk violated his NDA revealing the bot sample size. In any case, the deal looks fragile at this point. Downbeat US consumer sentiment. The preliminary US May University of Michigan sentiment survey showed the Current Conditions reading drop to a new cycle low of 63.6, a bad miss relative to the 69.6 expected. The reading was only worse for three months during the financial crisis of 2008-09. Expectations fared poorly as well, with a reading of 56.3 vs. 61.5 expected. The longer term inflation expectations component was stable at 3.0%. German Social Democrats suffer historic defeat in regional election in North Rhine-Westphalia, the most populous German state. The SPD polled at 27.1% according to exit polls, down over 4% from 2017, while the CDU won almost 36%, up about 3%, and the Greens advanced from 6 to 18%. What are we watching next? Status of crypto market as a sign of weak liquidity conditions: The cryptocurrency market survived last week’s volatility event after “stable” coin TerraUSD was blown up and the largest stable coin Tether suffered its worst challenge with parity since late 2020. Bitcoin broke down well through 30k, but the subsequent rally has failed to carry the price action away from that level, and the crypto space shows a near one-to-one correlation with US equities, which suggests that crypto assets offer no diversification. Stable coins stability and renewed break-down risk remain concerns until that asset class shows a life of its own. Official NATO application from Sweden and Finland. The is a major political event as it ends 200 years of Swedish neutrality and Russia has already reacted by cutting electricity to Finland (around 10% of the country’s consumption but can easily be filled by Sweden and the Baltics) and generally threated NATO with consequences. It seems all NATO countries are favouring to include Sweden and Finland the defense alliance except for Turkey with Erdogan commenting over the weekend that the two countries are housing Kurdish terror organisation. Read next: (TRX) TRON USD Decentralised Blockchain Platform That Focuses On Entertainment And Content Sharing. Altcoins: A Deep Look Into The TRON Network | FXMAG.COM Earnings Watch. The worst earnings season since the bottom during the early phase of the pandemic is coming to an end. Data confirms that revenue growth is slowing down and earnings lower due to margin pressure from commodities. This week will be dominated by large Chinese earnings from Meituan, JD.com, Tencent, Trip.com, Xiaomi, and DiDi Global. Monday: Meituan, Ryanair, Recruit Holdings, Take-Two Interactive Tuesday: Engie, Vodafone, Nibe Industrier, Sonova, Walmart, Home Depot, JD.com, Sea Ltd Wednesday: Tencent, Experian, Burberry, Singapore Airlines, Cisco, Lowe’s, Target, Analog Devices, TJX, Synopsys, Copart, Trip.com Thursday: Xiaomi, Generali, National Grid, Applied Materials, Palo Alto Networks, Ross Stores, DiDi Global Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0840 – ECB's Lane and Panetta to speak 1200 – Poland Apr. CPI 1215 – Canada Apr. Housing Starts 1230 – US May Empire Manufacturing 1255 – US Fed’s Williams (voter) speaking 1300 – Canada Apr. Existing Home Sales 1415 – UK Bank of England Governor Bailey and other MPC members to speak 0130 – Australia RBA meeting minutes Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: Saxo Bank
KOG Report:  The week ahead for GOLD!! - 15.05.2022

KOG Report: The week ahead for GOLD!! - 15.05.2022

Knights of Gold Knights of Gold 15.05.2022 19:40
In last week’s KOG Report we suggested we wanted to see some bullish momentum to target the higher resistance levels before then coming down to swoop the low. We wanted higher into the 1900s where we wanted to take the long-term short position and said we would treat it level to level following Excalibur. We had our mark on 1850 and suggested that this level will see a reaction in price, as you can see the market tested it but only gave a small bounce before breaking it and then turning it into resistance. We had lower targets of 1845, 1833 and 1821 and mentioned we had a lower target of 1790. All but one of these lower targets have been met, the 1790 level is still active. We completed 22 targets out of 24 trades in Camelot on top of the full house of trades we had last week. So what can we expect in the week ahead? A lot of traders are asking if this is going back up. This is the benefit of KOGs level to level trading strategy following the Excalibur, it doesn’t matter if the market goes to the moon or down to the ground, we trade it as we see it up and down, which is why we give both scenarios. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM We’ll start by saying this is well overdue a retracement from this move that we’ve been seeing. However, we want to see where this finds a short-term bottom before then making the move into the key levels above, for this reason we will be taking shorts with caution into immediate support levels and looking for a confirmed reversal before taking any long positions to target the higher levels. There is a huge chance that Gold can start to range here instead of making that move higher, so we’ll trade it how we see it this week with a neutral bias. We have our lower target or 1790 which we would like to see completed and below that 1775 which is also a possibility. We have maintained the bearish view on Gold and our members know that we have targets even lower for this precious metal. We will therefore trade this as usual with two scenarios in mind using the same chart we have been using from last month. Scenario 1: The price pushes down on opening, we will be looking for our 1790 level to complete with the potential for a low around the 1780 price point. If these levels hold and we see a confirmed support then we see this as an opportunity to take the long trade back up towards the 1810, 1820 and above that 1835 price regions. As long as the price stays below the 1850 region we will then be looking to take this back down into our lower targets which we will share over the course of the week. Scenario 2: The market pushes the price to the upside, here we will be looking first for 1810 as the first point or resistance, if this resistance breaks and turns into support there are opportunities to trade this level to level to the upside targeting 1818, 1825, 1832 and above that 1837. The 1830-35 price region is where we want to see a reaction in price and if we find a strong resistance here we feel there will be an opportunity to short the market back down to target that 1790 and 1780 level. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/cUVDp99c-XAUUSD-KOG-REPORT/ In summary: We’re level to level with caution on the shorts unless we get better entries from higher resistance levels and the bias remaining short overall but neutral for this week. We’ll be looking for the price to find some short term support below to either establish a new range or to then begin some form or retracement to the upside with the 1830-35 level being a very important region. As long as the price stays below 1850 we will be looking to target lower pricing on Gold. Range for this week we would say is 1770-1835. Read next: (TRX) TRON USD Decentralised Blockchain Platform That Focuses On Entertainment And Content Sharing. Altcoins: A Deep Look Into The TRON Network | FXMAG.COM Hope this helps in preparation for the week ahead, we will update you as we go along as we usually do. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
An unusual drawdown is the perfect ending to an unusual bull market

(WMT) Walmart Price Dropped Down As The Earnings Turned Out To Be Quite Low. Jerome Powell (FED) Seems To Be Ready To Get His Foot Down Regarding Monetary Policy And Boost US Dollar (USD) Further | Saxo Bank

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 18.05.2022 09:10
Summary:  Risk sentiment remained strong in the US yesterday, as the major indices closed strongly at a more than one-week high on a day that saw both a strong US Retail Sales report for April and largest US retailer Walmart’s stock punished by the most in a single day since 1987 on a weak profit forecast. Fed Chair Powell said that the Fed won't hesitate to raise rates above neutral if necessary, helping to lift the entire US yield curve and perhaps helping to cool sentiment overnight.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - S&P 500 futures pushed higher yesterday closing the recent short-term selloff cycle that started last Monday but are trading a bit softer this morning around the 4,075 level. US retail sales yesterday showed that the US consumer is still alive and comments from Home Depot’s CEO suggest that the US housing market is still strong despite recent higher mortgage rates with tight supply of homes to last several years. Overall, the dynamics are still the same with tighter financial conditions ahead and hawkish comments yesterday from several Fed members suggest our defensive stance on US equities is correct. Stoxx 50 (EU50.I) - Stoxx 50 futures closed above its 50-day moving average that we highlighted as the key focus point for the market in yesterday’s quick take. This is the first time since 20 April when technology stocks were staging a comeback with risk appetite before everything turned lower again. If Stoxx 50 futures can manage to stay above this moving average, there might be enough energy for a test of the 3,800. European car sales figures are out this morning and they are still weak which might add a bit of negative pressure among carmakers and car parts suppliers. EURUSD – strong risk sentiment and a weaker US dollar clearly go hand in hand, as yesterday’s market action demonstrated, but the euro got an extra boost from ECB governing council member Klaas Knot saying that the ECB shouldn’t exclude 50-basis point hikes from the menu of options. This drove a strong boost in ECB rate expectations, with end-2022 now priced for a +0.45% policy rate, 10 bps higher than the previous day. EURUSD traded up through 1.0500, a bullish reversal as that was a sticking point on the way down. Still, very heavy lifting would be needed to turn the bearish tide, with next resistance at the prior pivot higher near 1.0640, while more like 1.0800-1.0850+ would be needed to suggest a structural reversal. A new sell-off in risk sentiment will test the degree to which the latest hawkish tile from a growing number of ECB members weighs on the EURUSD exchange rate. USDJPY and JPY pairs – watching JPY crosses and USDJPY closely after US treasury yields jumped yesterday, especially at the long end of the curve, to which the JPY is traditionally most sensitive. Japan’s Q1 GDP estimate out overnight was better than anticipated as nominal GDP rose +0.1% and the economy (in real terms) contracted less than expected. In the JPY crosses, we have seen a wild ride on the recent swings in risk sentiment that now have pairs like EURJPY, AUDJPY and GBPJPY back near important retracement levels after steep sell-offs last week. These will likely tilt lower if bond yields stay calm and we see renewed risk aversion. Otherwise, the Bank of Japan will likely only come under fresh pressure to alter its policy if the USDJPY rate jumps to strong new highs and, for example, if global oil prices do likewise, increasing cost-of-living in Japan, etc. Gold (XAUUSD) trades lower after Fed chair Powell said the Fed will keep raising rates until inflation is brought under control. His comments helped lift inflation adjusted US Treasury yields with the 10-year real yield rising to 0.25%. The weaker dollar yesterday also helped boost risk appetite with stocks being the main recipients of these flows. For now, the bears remain in control, especially after the rejection yesterday at $1838, the 200-day moving average on XAUUSD. Silver (XAGUSD) meanwhile enjoyed some tailwind from recovering industrial metals with the XAUXAG falling to 83.90 after hitting a 22-month high of 88.5 last week. Crude oil (OILUKJUL22 & OILUSJUN22) tried but failed to break higher on Tuesday after the tailwind from a potential pickup in Chinese demand, as lockdowns begin to lift, was being offset by hawkish comments on interest rates from Fed chair Powell, and news that the US may ease some economic sanctions on Venezuela, a 2m b/d producer in 2017 reduced to just 0.7m b/d at present. The bid, however, returned late in the day when the API published a bullish inventory report that pointed to a continued and worsening tightness in the US crude and gasoline market after they saw stocks falling by 2.4m barrels and 5.1m barrels, respectively. The EIA will release its official report later Wednesday. Dutch TTF benchmark gas (TTFMM2) remains rangebound within a €85 to €110 range despite the fact Europe's gas inventories are rebuilding at the fastest rate on record as the region's buyers outbid competitors from Asia to acquire as much gas as possible at any price. According to Gas Infrastructure Europe total stocks have since the March low climbed by 202 TWh to 446 TWh, and at this rate will surpass the five-year average within the next few weeks. Asia’s LNG buyers have been less active than normal, driven by a combination of stocks being allowed to run down due to soaring prices and lower Chinese demand as its coronavirus outbreaks and lockdowns take its toll on demand for gas. US Treasuries (TLT, IEF) - sold off yesterday and took the 10-year Treasury benchmark yield sharply back higher toward 3.00% in the wake of strong US Retail Sales data and amidst positive risk sentiment. If the 10-year yield continues higher after yesterday’s 10 basis point jump, it is worth nothing that the recent top of 3.2% was within a few basis points of the 2018 high for the cycle at 3.26%. Meanwhile, the 30-year T-bond yield closed at 3.185, the second-highest daily close for the cycle, with an intraday cycle high of 3.31%. The US Treasury is set to auction 20-year T-notes later today. What is going on? Fed Chair Powell says “won’t hesitate at all” to take Fed Funds rate above neutral after saying that “what we need to see is inflation coming down in a clear and convincing way, and we’re going to keep pushing until we see that.” Powell admitted that taking levels above neutral could bring some pain and a rise in the unemployment rate. End-2022 Fed expectations rose about 10 basis points yesterday and sit at 2.82”, just shy of the 2.88% cycle highs from before the May 4 FOMC meeting, at which Powell discouraged the idea of hiking more than 50 basis points at a time. UK Apr. CPI out this morning in line with expectations. The headline year-on-year reading was 9.0% vs. 9.1% expected and 7.0% in March, while the Core CPI was 6.2% as expected and vs.5.7% in Mar. The month-on-month headline CPI was 2.5% vs. 2.6% expected and 1.1% in March. Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, suffers worst single-day price drop since 1987 as it cut its profit forecast, citing margin pressure concerns due to inflation, and the CEO vowing that “price leadership is especially important right now.” Home Depot gains on strong Q1 and better than expected Q2 outlook. The US home improvement retailer gained yesterday on a surprise Q1 comp sales of +2.2% y/y vs est. -2.4% y/y and saying on the conference call that Q2 was off to a strong start; the company says it is not seeing the consumer holding back and sees tight housing inventory lasting for five years. Japan Q1 GDP contracted less than expected. Japan’s Q1 GDP showed a contraction of 1% q/q sa following a 3.8% expansion in Q4, but it was still better than expected. The omicron wave and supply drags created pressures, but the outlook for Q2 is appears to be improving as the economy reopens and pent-up demand boosts consumer spending. UK unemployment drops to a 50-year low of 3.7%. For the first time since records, job openings (1.3 million) outnumber those out of work. In addition, the number of payrolled employees grew by 121,000 between March and April, to 29.5 million. A lot of people have chosen salaried employment over self-employment due to fear of recession and higher cost of living. Wages continue to move upward. But this is not enough to cope with inflation. Pay, excluding bonuses, rose by 4.2 % between January and March while cost of living was at 7 % in March and is expected to jump to 9 % in April. The situation is becoming unbearable for many households. We believe that the Bank of England will have no other choice but to speed up the interest rate hike cycle before pausing perhaps after the summer. As expected, U.S. April retail sales show the U.S. domestic economy is very resilient. Retail sales were out at 0.9 % versus the expected 1 %. After adjusting for monthly inflation, it was at 0.6 %. This is still very solid. There is no sign of imminent recession in the United States when we look at the U.S. consumer. Peloton sees twice the demand for its $750 bond offering. The struggling health company has seen strong demand for its bonds in a sign that risk appetite is still intact in the high yield debt market in the US. Australian wage growth in Q1 slightly softer than expected. The report showed Australian wages rising only +0.7% QoQ and +2.4% YoY vs. +0.8%/+2.5% expected, respectively and vs. +2.3% YoY in Q4. What are we watching next? Earnings Watch. Today’s focus is Tencent given the latest support from the Chinese government including comments yesterday from the Vice Premier signaling support for platform companies. Consensus is looking for Q1 revenue of CNY 141.1bn up 4% y/y and EPS of CNY 2.77 down 5% y/y. SQM is also reporting today and is one of the world’s leading lithium miners earning 41% of its profits from lithium and 59% from fertilizers and plant nutrients including potassium, and as well as other agricultural sector products. Both lithium and fertilizers are seeing high prices due to tight supply-demand situation. Today: Tencent, Experian, Burberry, Singapore Airlines, Cisco, Lowe’s, Target, Analog Devices, TJX, Synopsys, Copart, Trip.com, SQM Thursday: Xiaomi, Generali, National Grid, Applied Materials, Palo Alto Networks, Ross Stores, DiDi Global Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0800 – South Africa 1230 – US Apr. Housing Starts and Building Permits 1230 – Canada Apr. CPI 1230 – Canada Apr. Home Price Index 1430 – EIA's Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report 2000 – US Fed’ Harker (Non-voter) to speak 2350 – Japan Apr. Trade Balance 0130 – Australia Apr. Employment Data Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: Saxo Bank
Podcast: BoJ losing control. Geopolitical risks for Tesla

Fed hawks may not let the equity rally extend! | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 18.05.2022 10:58
The US equity markets rallied yesterday after taking over a positive session from the Europeans. However, the US retail sales data didn’t necessarily hint at slowing spending, and Jerome Powell didn’t say things that investors would normally like to hear. Powell’s words didn’t hit the investor appetite immediate, but mixed activity in US futures hint that appetite may not remain as strong in the coming sessions. In the FX, the US dollar eased from two-decade highs. Gold trades around the $1800 mark and crude oil bumps into solid topsellers approaching above the $115pb   The EURUSD rebounded past the 1.05 and Cable traded past 1.24. Yet, prospects of higher US rates, and the positive divergence between the Fed and other central banks should prevent the dollar from falling significantly. Eurozone’s final inflation data is due today, and should confirm a rise to 7.5% in April, an eye-watering number which should keep the European Central Bank (ECB) hawks and the euro bulls alert, and help the single currency consolidate its latest gains against the US dollar. Gold trades around the $1800 mark and crude oil bumps into solid topsellers approaching above the $115pb. On the earnings front, the US retailers reveal mixed earnings but they all agree on one thing: inflation impacts activity. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:22 Market update 2:06 Jerome Powell is decided to bring inflation down! 2:48 High EZ inflation to keep euro bulls alert 3:41 ...but the dollar may not ease much! 4:42 Gold under the pressure on rising rates 5:31 Crude oil bumps into topsellers past $115pb 6:47 US retailers reveal mixed results, but agree that inflation is an issue Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.
Oil falls on Venezuala and EU, gold dips | Oanda

Oil falls on Venezuala and EU, gold dips | Oanda

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 18.05.2022 15:30
Venezuela/Europe send oil lower Overnight, oil prices touched multi-week highs until the US announced it was starting a process, potentially leading to an easing of sanctions on Venezuela. That immediately saw oil reverse all its impressive intraday gains and both Brent crude and WTI finished slightly lower on the day. The EU effectively allowing European importers to pay for Russian gas via roubles should take the edge off European gas prices and flow through to oil prices. Brent crude finished 1.05% lower at USD 112.70 a barrel, having tested USD 116.00 intraday. WTI, by contrast, finished just 0.10% lower at USD 113.60 a barrel, having also tested USD 116.00 intraday. Prices are unmoved in Asia. Tight API inventory data and soaring diesel prices in the US have combined to send WTI to a premium over Brent and is likely to limit the downside for both contracts, Venezuela, or not. Tonight’s official crude inventory data dump will now be closely watched, and sharp falls in gasoline and distillates inventories could increase the WTI premium over Brent crude. Brent crude has resistance at USD 116.00 and support at USD 111.50 a barrel. WTI has taken resistance at USD 116.00 a barrel as well, with support at USD 111.50. Any progress on Venezuela’s supply returning to international markets is potentially a game-changer and should mean the top of my longer-term range, at USD 120.00 a barrel, remains intact. Gold’s price action doesn’t inspire confidence Despite the US dollar falling heavily overnight, and risk sentiment rising generally, gold prices fell 0.53% to USD 1815.00 an ounce overnight, easing to USD 1814.50 in Asia. US yields climbing higher may have played a part, but the direction of the US dollar has been more important of late. When gold falls as the US dollar falls heavily, we should all take that as a warning sign, suggesting lower prices are the path of least resistance. As such, I believe gold’s downside risks have ratcheted higher. Support lies at USD 1789.00, followed by USD 1780.00 an ounce. Failure of the latter suggests a deeper correction to USD 1700.00. That move could occur quite quickly if USD 1780.00 fails. Gold has resistance at USD 1836.00, followed by the 200-DMA at USD 1836.80, and then USD 1850.00 an ounce. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Gold Price Has Been Affected By Fears Of Recession And Hawkish Rhetoric Of Fed (Federal Reserve)

Gold pounces on stock market malaise | Saxo Bank

Ole Hansen Ole Hansen 19.05.2022 23:56
Summary:  Gold, in a downtrend since mid-April, has found a tentative bid amid continued turbulence across global stock markets. So far, however, the fresh bid has not been strong enough to rattle some of the recent established tactical short positions. For that to happen the metal needs a runaway upside day or a period of consolidation back above the 200-day moving average, currently at $1839/oz. From an absolute return perspective gold’s year-to-date performance in dollars can be viewed as a disappointing Gold, in a downtrend since mid-April, has found a tentative bid amid continued turbulence across global stock markets. So far, however, the fresh bid has not been strong enough to rattle some of the recent established tactical short positions. For that to happen the metal needs a runaway upside day or a period of consolidation back above the 200-day moving average, currently at $1839/oz. Read next: Altcoins: What Is PancakeSwap (CAKE)? A Deeper Look Into The PancakeSwap Platform| FXMAG.COM From an absolute return perspective gold’s year-to-date performance in dollars can be viewed as a disappointing, but when considering the impact of the stronger dollar and the steep losses in stocks and bonds, any diversified investor with gold is likely to be satisfied. The yield on US ten-year inflation adjusted bonds trades lower with the break below the 21-day moving average at +0.09% During the past month, gold has been suffering from the double blow of a stronger dollar and the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) signaling an aggressive pace of future rate hikes in order to combat inflation at the highest level in decades. Fine, if the economy does not suffer too much of a setback, thereby raising the risk of recession. What has changed during the past 48 hours has been dismal earnings news from large US retailers raising the risk of a deeper than expected economic slump. Most recently Target Corp which yesterday plunged the most since 1987’s Black Monday crash. In his comments the CEO sited persistent cost pressures and bloating inventories amid a change in consumer spending as reasons. These developments helped deepen the global stock market rout, and today the weakness has continued, thereby supporting short covering and fresh haven buying of US bonds while the dollar has softened. All developments that has supported the mentioned bid in gold. The yield on US ten-year inflation adjusted bonds trades lower with the break below the 21-day moving average at +0.09% signaling a loss of short-term bullish momentum.  Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM The loss of momentum in recent weeks have seen ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) investors reduce gold holdings in all but one of the last 18 days while money managers in the latest reporting week to May 10 cut their net long in COMEX gold futures to a three-month low. Interestingly the latest reduction was primarily driven by long liquidation with no signs of appetite for naked short selling.  We maintain a bullish outlook for gold given the need to diversify amid a troubled stock market and the increased risk of a policy FOMC policy mistakes driving yields and the dollar lower. From the chart below it is clear that gold has its work cut out, and a great deal of work is needed to mend the chart damage done during the past month. The first sign of improvement would be a break above the 200-day moving average at $1839 followed by $1868, the latter being the first level to signal loss of bearish momentum. Source: Saxo Group Source: Saxo Bank
Analysis of Gold for June 30,.2022 - Key decision pivot on the test at $1.814  | InstaForex

What's Going To Be Gold Price (XAUUSD)? Gold – Back in favour? | Oanda

Craig Erlam Craig Erlam 19.05.2022 23:53
Or just a blip? Gold has very much fallen out of favour over the last month as it fell 10% on the back of coming within a whisker of $2,000. But has something changed? We’ve seen plenty of risk aversion in the markets over the last 24 hours, with stock markets falling heavily, and rather than being particularly supportive for the dollar, it’s gold that has performed well which hasn’t really been the case in recent weeks. Read next: Altcoins: What Is PancakeSwap (CAKE)? A Deeper Look Into The PancakeSwap Platform| FXMAG.COM Perhaps that’s because higher inflation and therefore interest rate expectations have been behind all of the gloom in the markets, which is typically bullish for the dollar. Whereas the last 24 hours seem to have seen a shift. Rather than interest rates, it’s economic fears that are driving the negativity in the markets. Higher inflation is squeezing margins which means higher prices. And the Fed has gone from anticipating a soft landing, to softish and now just a safe one. That shouldn’t fill anyone with confidence. And maybe that’s why we’re seeing investors move back towards gold. Of course, we’ve seen plenty of big sentiment swings in the markets, especially this year, so that could change. But it’s possible that gold may be back in favour. The first test of this comes around $1,850 which has been support and resistance in the past and coincides with the upper end of the 55/89-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. This is followed by $1,875-1,900, a break of which would be a strong signal. A break back below $1,800 on the other hand would suggest quite the opposite unless accompanied by very positive economic news which seems unlikely at this point. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
FX Daily: Talking up the euro

US Close – Stocks Near Bear Market, Crude Oil Price Higher On Supply Concerns, Gold Price (XAUUSD) Pops, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Stabilizes | Oanda

Ed Moya Ed Moya 19.05.2022 23:51
US stocks edged lower as Wall Street became more focused over a deteriorating growth outlook that could see stubbornly high pricing pressures for the Fed into a much more aggressive tightening cycle. It doesn’t seem like we will see a deceleration in pricing pressures and that has many traders worried that the Fed will send the economy into a recession.  Right now markets are functioning properly but if we see another 5% decline with stocks, credit conditions will worsen and that could provide the Fed an excuse to stop tightening so aggressively.  Tighter financial conditions will hurt the parts of the economy that are doing well and further selling of stocks could remain the theme if the S&P 500 enters a bear market.  The S&P 500 is looking vulnerable here as more strategists slash their forecasts as recession risks rise.  Fed (Federal Reserve) Fed’s George affirmed the board’s stance that a half-point rate increase pace is appropriate.  The Fed remains focused with fighting inflation and they will remain aggressive with tightening policy until liquidity becomes a concern.  FX (Forex) The dollar is in freefall as investors buy up Treasuries over concerns that the economy is headed for a rough patch. The dollar was ripe for a pullback and today’s across the board weakness might continue a while longer. Read next: Altcoins: What Is PancakeSwap (CAKE)? A Deeper Look Into The PancakeSwap Platform| FXMAG.COM US Data A wrath of US economic data painted a gloomy picture of the economy: Jobless claims rose, the housing market is clearly cooling, another Fed regional survey showed the weakest print since early in the pandemic and the leading index turned negative.  Weekly jobless claims rose from 197,000 to 218,000. The Philly Fed manufacturing outlook fell sharply from 17.6 to 2.6.  Surging mortgage rates and record home prices led to a drop in April existing home sales  Crude Oil Price Crude prices rallied as the EU nears a key deadline to pay for Russian oil with a roubles account.  The oil market just has too many risks to supplies and still a strong short-term travel outlook both in the EU and US.  WTI crude should be well supported at the $100 level as US production is slowly increasing. Recession fears are rising but that impact won’t be felt for quite a while, which means the oil market won’t see imminent crude demand destruction. Crude inventories are too low for oil traders to turn bearish with WTI crude. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM Gold Price Gold is acting like a safe-haven again as recession fears are triggering massive demand for Treasuries, which is sending both yields and the dollar lower. The US labor market is showing signs of weakness and that could lead fears that consumer spending will deteriorate much faster than most are expecting. The dollar is getting sold against everything and that is great news for gold. Right now, investors are looking for safety and Treasuries and gold should both outperform in the short-term.   Bitcoin (BTC) Bitcoin is hovering around the $30,000 level as investors continue to shy away from stocks.  A weaker dollar and bear market stock fears are making Bitcoin attractive again.  It seems the fallout from all the stablecoin drama that sent cryptos sharply lower is finally fading.  Bitcoin looks poised to consolidate here, but bulls should be happy to see prices are not mimicking what happens with the stock market.   Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
Could XAU extend rally? Are Apple, Tesla good to short? | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote

Could XAU extend rally? Are Apple, Tesla good to short? | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 20.05.2022 10:23
The US equities closed Thursday’s session in the negative following a choppy trading session, as investors’ hearts pounded between buying the dip, or selling further on recession fear. The US 10-year yield declined yesterday, and the sharp retreat in the US yields gave a boost to gold, raising question on whether the gold rally could be sustained, and if yes, how high could it extend. The dollar gave back gains, letting the EURUSD and GBPUSD rally, but the gains may remain short-lived if the dollar skew in market pricing continues. Tesla got kicked out of the S&P’s ESG index, which could have implications on its long-term price potential   On the individual stocks, news that Michal Burry opened a bet against Apple heated conversations about whether Apple is a good ‘short’. And finally, Tesla got kicked out of the S&P’s ESG index, which could have implications on its long-term price potential. Read next: Altcoins: What Is PancakeSwap (CAKE)? A Deeper Look Into The PancakeSwap Platform| FXMAG.COM Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:28 Market update 1:20 Is Apple a good stock to short? 3:50 US yields boosted gold. Is gold rally sustainable? 6:25 FX update: euro, pound up on softer dollar 7:58 Tesla out of S&P ESG index: what does it mean for stock performance? Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
EUR/USD: plan for the American session on June 27 (analysis of morning deals). The euro again fell short of 1.0603  Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/314608

WCU: Comeback week for industrial and precious metals | Saxo Bank

Ole Hansen Ole Hansen 20.05.2022 18:11
Summary:  The commodity sector continued to find support this past week, despite the hurricane sweeping across global stock markets where the S&P 500 so far has recorded its fourth biggest drawdown since 2010. Gains this past week were concentrated in industrial and precious metals - sectors that have suffered setbacks during the past two months. In addition, the risk of a global food crisis continues to support the agriculture sector while a tight fuel-product market kept crude oil range bound despite economic growth worries. The commodity sector continued to find support this past week, despite the hurricane sweeping across global stock markets. US stocks posted their biggest daily drop in almost two years on Wednesday, driven by surging inflation, weak earnings and the prospect of aggressive monetary policy tightening hurting economic growth. Nevertheless, the Bloomberg Commodity Spot index managed to climb by 1.6% and, while we are seeing the fourth biggest drawdown in the S&P 500 since 2010, the commodity sector continues to highlight the need for both supply and demand to keep prices stable. With the supply of many key commodities – from grains and coffee to fuel products and some industrial metals – being challenged, the sector is likely to remain supported despite softer growth; especially considering the prospect for a government-supported stimulus boost to a post-lockdown China. Growth in the country has been increasingly challenged by its stubborn adherence to the dynamic zero-Covid policy despite mounting economic and social costs. Gains this past week were concentrated in industrial and precious metals – sectors that have suffered setbacks during the past two months. In addition, the risk of a global food crisis continues to rise, with Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and poor weather conditions being the main culprits for the disruption to a lower supply of key food commodities. The grains sector hit a fresh record high with the Bloomberg Grains Spot Index sprinting to a +30% gain on the year. Soybeans led the rally, followed by wheat with corn registering a small loss in the week. Global worries about a food crisis persist with disruptions in shipments from the Ukraine, one of the world’s most important supplier of high-quality wheat and sunflower oil causing ripples around the world. Ukrainian farmers have almost completed the sowing of spring wheat for the 2022 harvest and the overall rate of this year's spring crop sowing is 25% lower than at the same date in 2021, the agriculture ministry said on Friday. A couple of positive supply news, however, helped ease but by no means remove worries about a global food crisis. Palm oil slumped after Indonesia ended its short-lived export ban. Wheat which earlier in the week surge to fresh highs in Europe and the US on worries about supplies from India saw prices ease on forecast for a bumper crop year in Russia. However, comments from agriculture analysis firm Gro Intelligence that the world only has 10 weeks’ worth of wheat consumption in reserve will keep prices supported. At least until we get some more clarity over production levels in Europe and North America, both areas that have seen a challenging weather-related start to the growing season.In our latest industrial metal-focused update, we wrote that the precious metals sector was looking to China for a rebound and, indeed, this week saw some of the signals that China is starting to turn more supportive. Before then, the Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index had lost 25% since the early March peak, with the main catalysts – aside from global growth worries – being China and its zero-Covid policy. Outbreaks in Shanghai and Beijing have been met with a prolonged period of lockdown, hurting economic growth and creating major bottlenecks across global supply chains.This week in China, we saw retail sales slump 11% and youth unemployment hit a record 18.2%, as well as economists forecasting downgraded GDP. Responding to these developments on Friday, Chinese banks cut their 5-year loan rate by a record 0.15 basis points. Keep in mind, this is happening while the rest of the world is going in the opposite direction, and it highlights the Chinese government’s willingness to support the economy. More support will likely follow as the government seeks to support infrastructure and property projects, which are both critical for industrial metal demand.Around the timing of the early March peak in prices, stock levels of the four major industrial metals held at warehouses monitored by the LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange stood at 1.77 million tons. Instead of rising as demand according to the price action showed weakness, this level has continued to fall, reaching 1.43 million tons this week – a 19% decline during this time.It highlights our view that a global economic slowdown does not prevent industrial metals from moving higher, despite supply potentially struggling to keep up with demand not only from China, but also from the energy transition away from fossil fuels. A transition that, in name, is green but actually is very black when you consider the number of different metals that are needed in the process. These range from aluminum, copper and nickel to more exotic metals like rare earth minerals, cobalt and lithium.High-Grade Copper: Despite the month-long correction, HG copper remains rangebound, having so far failed to properly challenge key support in the $4 per pound area. As it stands, the recovery this week has taken HG copper back to its 21-day moving average, with a break above signaling a loss of negative price momentum. If realised, it may soon force speculators to cover a net short which, in the week to May 10, doubled to reach a two-year high at 17.7k lots or 201k metric tons. Source: Saxo Group Gold, in a downtrend since mid-April, found a fresh bid amid continued turbulence across global stock markets. During the past month, gold suffered from the double blow of a stronger dollar and the FOMC signaling an aggressive pace of future rate hikes to combat inflation at the highest level in decades. This is fine if the economy does not suffer too much of a setback, thereby raising the risk of recession. What changed this week has been dismal earnings news from large US retailers raising the risk of a deeper than expected economic slump.We maintain a bullish outlook for gold, given the need to diversify amid a troubled stock market and the mentioned potential increased risk of a FOMC policy mistake driving yields and the dollar lower. From the chart below, gold has its work cut out, and a great deal of work is needed to mend the damage done during the past month. However, the first sign of improvement has been the break above the 200-day moving average at $1839 – with the next big challenge being $1868, the 38.2% retracement of the 210-dollar April to May correction.Silver, supported by the bounce across industrial metals, seems to have found its footing following a 22% correction, which – at one point – extended below previous support around $21.50. With speculators having cut their positions to neutral, any renewed upside momentum is likely to attract fresh buying from underexposed funds. Crude oil spent most of the week challenging the upper end of the trading range that has prevailed for the past six weeks. However, relative calm market action during this time has been hiding a market in continued turmoil where major opposing forces have managed to keep it rangebound. During this time, the U.S. government has injected millions of barrels in a failed attempt to suppress the price while Chinese demand has suffered due to its zero-Covid strategy.The fact the market has not fallen below $100 highlights the underlying strength with tight supply of key fuels, self-sanctioning of Russian crude oil, OPEC struggling to increase production and unrest in Libya all supporting the market. With China potentially starting to ease lockdowns and with unrest in Libya still growing, the short-term price risk remains firmly skewed to higher prices.During the past few weeks, the focus has turned from a rangebound crude oil market to the product market where the cost of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel have surged to levels not seen in years (if ever). The combination of refinery maintenance, a post pandemic reduction in capacity as well as self-sanctioning of Russian products have all led to incredible tight markets. Especially in North American refineries, where they are running flat out to produce what they can and, in turn, benefitting from mouthwatering margins.So, despite the prospect for slower global economic growth, the price of crude oil remains supported. If we stick to our wide $90 to $120 range call for Brent during the current quarter, while still considering structural issues (most importantly the continued level of underinvestment and OPEC’s struggle to increase production), this will continue to support prices over the coming quarters. US natural gas had another rollercoaster week, ending up off the highs after twice finding resistance around $8.5/therm. The current price is up by 200% compared to the same time last year, with record exports via LNG, flat production growth and a recent heatwave across the southern states increasing demand for cooling. However, the weekly injection of 89 billion cubic feet (bcf) to 1732 bcf was in line with expectations and helped reduce the deficit to the 5-year average to 15.2%. In addition, the milder weather ahead and Europe suffering from a temporary bout of LNG indigestion could suggest a period of stable prices. However, overall rising global demand and a sharp discount to prices in Europe and Asia is likely to prevent any significant weakness during the coming months. Source: Saxo Bank
Oil prices rise as demand outstrips supply

Crude Oil Calm, Gold Price (XAU/USD) Rises | Oanda

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 23.05.2022 14:34
A quiet day for oil markets Oil prices edged higher on Friday in New York, as the persistent squeeze in refined petroleum products in the US, and ever-present Ukraine/Russia risk underpinned prices, with China slowdown and US recession noise limiting gains. Mind you, in one article I read this morning, China’s recovery hopes were supporting oil while China’s slowdown hopes were capping gains. I guess it’s not just equity markets that are very confused right now. I do note, though, that the Brent crude premium over WTI reasserted itself into the end of the week, so perhaps the worst of the US diesel and gasoline squeeze is passed for now. Brent crude rose by 1.10% to USD 112.55 on Friday, gaining another 0.70% to USD 113.30 a barrel in Asian trading. WTI rose 0.40% to USD 110.55 on Friday, gaining another 0.35% to USD 110.90 a barrel today. The price action is consistent with a market that is not strongly leaning one way or another at the moment. Overall, I am expecting Brent crude to bounce around in a USD 111.00 to USD 117.00 range this week Brent crude has resistance at USD 116.00 and support at USD 111.50 a barrel. WTI has resistance at USD 113.00 and USD 116.00 a barrel, with support at USD 108.00. Overall, I am expecting Brent crude to bounce around in a USD 111.00 to USD 117.00 range this week. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News Gold rises on weaker US dollar Gold prices rose on Friday, climbing just 0.24% to USD 1844.00 an ounce. In Asia, they have gained 0.42% to USD 1854.00 an ounce. Although gold’s rally has been impressive over the past week, it has yet to be proven that it is not just the result of a weaker US dollar. The true test of its resolve will be its ability to maintain gains when the US dollar starts rising again. Nevertheless, the technical picture is swinging back to a further test of the upside with resistance at USD 1860.00 and then USD 1885.00 an ounce, its 100-day moving average. Support is at USD 1845.00 and USD 1840.00, followed by USD 1832.00 an ounce. Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP | FXMAG.COM This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Learn more on Oanda
FX: AUD/USD And NZD/USD Set New Lows, USD/JPY Reached 135. Can (MU) Micron Technology Stock Decrease Amid Earnings?

Global stocks retreat after rebound in previous session - 24.5.2022 | IFCMarkets

Ara Zohrabian Ara Zohrabian 24.05.2022 14:05
Todays’ Market Summary The Dollar weakening has halted Futures on three main US stock indexes are down Brent is edging lower currently as an agreement on Russian oil imports ban still escapes European Union though German economy minister says he expects EU embargo on Russian oil 'within days'. Gold prices are edging up currently Top daily news Equities are pointing down currently as US Treasury yields inch down while markets rebounded on Monday. Amazon slipped 0.03% amid reports it is planning to sublease some of its warehouse space because the pandemic-fueled surge in online shopping has slowed, Microsoft shares rose 3.2% outperforming market on Monday. Forex news Currency Pair Change EUR USD -0.32% GBP USD -0.04% USD JPY +0.37% AUD USD -0.36% The Dollar weakening has halted currently. The live dollar index data show the ICE US Dollar index, a measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of six rival currencies, lost 0.5% on Monday. EUR/USD joined GBP/USD’s continuing climbing Monday while the Ifo institute reported German business sentiment continued to improve in May. Both pairs are down currently. AUD/USD resumed its advancing yesterday while USD/JPY continued its climbing with the yen higher against the Greenback currently and Australian dollar retreating. Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP | FXMAG.COM Stock Market news Indices Change Dow Jones Index -0.59% Nikkei Index -1.14% Hang Seng Index -1.62% Australian Stock Index -0.58% Futures on three main US stock indexes are down currently ahead of U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers survey report at 15:45 CET with the yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes inching down to 2.841%. US stock market reversed the selloff yesterday as President Biden said that he was considering easing tariffs on China. The three main US stock index benchmarks booked daily gains in the range of 1.6% to 2.0% Monday led by mega-cap growth shares. European stock indexes are down currently after closing up Monday led by banking and mining shares while European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde surprised markets by stating about possible rate hike as early as July. Asian indexes are falling today with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index leading losses while Markit reported Japan's manufacturing activity grew at the slowest pace in three months in May. Read next: Altcoins: Cardano (ADA) What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into Cardano (ADA) | FXMAG.COM Commodity Market news Commodities Change Brent Crude Oil -0.52% WTI Crude -1.31% Brent is edging lower currently as an agreement on Russian oil imports ban still escapes European Union though German economy minister says he expects EU embargo on Russian oil 'within days'. Prices advanced marginally yesterday. US West Texas Intermediate WTI added 0.01% but is lower currently. Brent gained 0.7% to $113.42 a barrel on Monday. Gold Market News Metals Change Gold +0.15% Gold prices are edging up currently. Spot gold yesterday closed up 0.39% at $1852.74 an ounce on Monday.
Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index Decreased. What's Going On Energy Market?

Crude Oil Rangebound, Gold Price (XAU/USD) Shines | Oanda

Ed Moya Ed Moya 24.05.2022 20:02
Oil looking for direction Oil prices remain directionless as energy traders try to assess how significant the deceleration in economic activity will be for the short-term crude demand outlook. The oil market remains tight but the COVID situation in China points to a gradual pickup in demand and that might keep this market rangebound a while longer. Saudi Prince Faisal bin Farhan noted that the kingdom has done what it can for global oil markets and that should mean production increases will remain slow. Oil prices will likely remain supported above the USD 100 level for the rest of the year. ​ ​ It looks like the only thing that will send oil back to the pre-COVID levels is demand destruction across the world’s largest economies and that probably won’t happen. WTI crude pared gains after a steady stream of weakening US economic data, but the overall outlook is still ok and a recession is unlikely until 2024. Gold Gold prices are surging as Treasury yields plunge following a wave of risk aversion that stemmed from disappointing earnings and deteriorating economic data from the US. ​ Non-interest bearing gold is a safe-haven again and it could be on the verge of a major breakout if prices can recapture the USD 1885 level. A peak in Treasury yields is in place and now the dollar looks like it is ready for a pullback as the ECB is ready to raise rates which is good news for the euro. ​ Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM There might be no stopping gold right now as the wall of worry on Wall Street continues to grow. ​ Gold should remain supported as inflationary pressures weigh further, China’s COVID situation remains a big unknown, and corporate America continues to slash outlooks. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Crude Oil Rebounds, Gold Price Struggles | Oanda

Crude Oil And Price Of Gold (XAU/USD) Head Higher | Oanda

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 25.05.2022 14:24
White House unnerves oil markets Oil prices continued to range trade overnight, finishing almost unchanged in New York. Asia, though, has seen both Brent crude and WTI rise. A couple of items seem to be behind the move. A sharp 4.20 million drop in gasoline inventories late in New York from the API Inventory data is likely supportive, with gasoline prices becoming a major issue in the US. Following on from that, White House officials explicitly refusing to say possible crude export restrictions were off the table appears to have spooked Asian suppliers. The last thing the world needs right now is US crude oil export restrictions with global supplies already tight. That saw both Brent crude and WTI spike 1.0% higher in early Asian trade, although those gains have eased as the session has gone on. Brent crude is 0.90% higher at USD 114.70 a barrel, and WTI is 0.65% higher at USD 110.90 a barrel. The White House likely needs to “clarify” its stance, least it creates unintended consequences by pushing crude prices higher. Brent crude, notably, is testing multi-week resistance today. Brent crude is testing resistance at USD 114.70 today, which is followed by USD 116.00, with support at USD 112.00. Failure of USD 116.00 could set up a retest test of my medium-term resistance at 120.00. ​ WTI is taking comfort from the White House stance and is sitting in a USD 108.00 to USD 112.00 a barrel range. Nevertheless, a topside breakout by Brent crude will almost certainly drag WTI higher as well, precisely what President Biden doesn’t want. Gold rises once again Gold had another decent overnight session, buoyed by lower US yields and a still-weakening US Dollar. Gold finished 0.69% higher at USD 1866.50 an ounce. In Asia, some US dollar strength has seen it weaken slightly by 0.40% to USD 1859.00 an ounce. Overall, although I acknowledge gold’s upward momentum, I remain sceptical of its longevity until it manages to hold on to material gains in the face of US dollar strength. Read next: (TRX) TRON USD Decentralised Blockchain Platform That Focuses On Entertainment And Content Sharing. Altcoins: A Deep Look Into The TRON Network | FXMAG.COM The technical picture continues to remain supportive, and it seems only a marked US dollar recovery will cap gold’s rally. Gold took out resistance at the double top at USD 1865.00 an ounce which becomes intraday support, followed by USD 1845.00 and USD 1840.00 an ounce. It should now target USD 1886.00, its 100-day moving average. That would open up a test of USD 1900.00, although I suspect there will be plenty of option-related selling ahead of that level. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
Johnson's Ability to Lead Tories into Victory at Risk with Today's By-Elections

Crude Oil steady, Gold Price (XAU/USD) Dips As US Dollar (USD) Rises | Oanda

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 26.05.2022 15:59
Oil markets slumber Oil prices had another comatose session by their standards, barely rising from the day before. Nevertheless, both Brent crude and WTI have held on to all their recent gains, suggesting the weaker side is the upside in prices for now. While China slowdown fears are receding in the minds of traders, for now, fears persist around the increasing tightness of the US diesel market, and I suspect not ruling out export controls has unnerved international markets, and rightly so. I expect prices to remain firm for the rest of the week, with the global data calendar fairly light. Brent crude rose 0.60% to USD 114.35 overnight, where it remains in an equally quiet Asian session. WTI rose 0.40% to USD 110.70, adding just 20 cents to USD 110.90 a barrel in Asia. Brent crude has resistance at USD 115.00 and USD 116.00 today, with support at USD 112.00. A rally through USD 116.00 could set up a retest test of my medium-term resistance at USD 120.00. ​ WTI is taking comfort from the White House stance and is sitting in a USD 108.00 to USD 112.00 a barrel range. Nevertheless, a topside breakout by Brent crude will drag WTI higher as well, allowing a test of the USD 115.00 to USD 116.00 resistance zone. Gold weakens on US dollar strength Gold fell by 0.70% to USD 1853.25 an ounce overnight, retreating another 0.45% to USD 1845.00 an ounce in Asia. As I have touched on before, the true test of gold’s underlying strength will be maintaining gains in the face of a US dollar rally. The fall by gold over the last 24 hours in the face of modest US dollar strength does not fill me with confidence. Further US dollar strength could see gold face one of its ugly downside shakeouts. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM Gold has nearby support at USD 1842.00, followed by USD 1836.00 an ounce. Failure sees the possibility of a mini-capitulation by longs that could reach as far as USD 1780.00 an ounce. On the topside, gold has resistance at USD 1870.00, followed by USD 1886.00 an ounce, its 100-day moving average. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
Gold Price (XAUUSD) May Shock Investors! Trading plan for Gold on June 21, 2022 | InstaForex

Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD holds above 200-DMA near $1,850 as focus turns to Friday’s US inflation data

FXStreet News FXStreet News 26.05.2022 16:43
Gold Price is holding above its 200-DMA in the $1,850 area and is back to nearly flat on the week. Traders are weighing the tailwinds of a softer USD and US yields versus strong US equities, as key Friday inflation data looms. How Fed And USD May Affect Gold? Gold Price (XAU/USD) is for now holding just above its 200-Day Moving Average at $1,839 and trading near the $1,850 level, though still with a slight downside bias on the day, despite Thursday’s worse-than-expected US GDP figures and Wednesday’s not as hawkish as feared Fed minutes release. Indeed, in wake of the weak data and modest paring back of hawkish Fed bets, the US dollar is a tad weaker and US yields are nudging lower, a combination that would normally be a tailwind for gold. Stronger Stocks - E.G. S&P 500 But US equities are rallying, with the S&P 500 last trading up around 1.4% on the day and eyeing a test of its 21-Day Moving Average for the first time since mid-April. On the week, the index is trading with gains of more than 3.0% and this appears to be weighing on the safe-haven precious metal. Traders are attributing stock market gains to weak GDP data reducing the need for aggressive Fed tightening and to strong earnings from a few US companies, including retail giant Macy’s. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM Either way, the better tone to risk appetite is for now keeping XAU/USD on the back foot. Having been as high as the $1,870 level earlier in the week, spot gold’s gains on the week have been eroded back to only about 0.2% from around 1.2%. But the recent pullback towards the 200-DMA might prove a good opportunity for the gold bulls to add to long positions if they think that hawkish Fed bets will continue to be pared in the weeks ahead and, as a result, the buck and US yields continue softening. If it contributes to the strengthening narrative that US inflation has peaked, Friday’s US April Core PCE report could lead to a further reduction of Fed tightening bets and gold could well end the week back at highs in the $1,870 area. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
Zalando in shock guidance cut, equities are lifted from yield plunge

What's Fed Going To Do!? Which Way Will USD Go? Bitcoin Price (BTC/USD) Is Still Near $30K | Citi says buy the dip in European & EM stocks! | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 27.05.2022 10:18
Fed minutes released on Wednesday weren’t as hawkish as many investors feared: the Fed deciders mostly agreed that inflation is too high and labour market is too tight and that they should raise the rates by 50bps for the next two meetings. But, there was no sign that the Fed would go down the 75bp hike road. US Indices, EUR/USD And Gold Price US indices gained for the second day as the FOMC minutes helped improving the investor mood. Nvidia jumped. But the futures are slightly in the negative at the time of writing, as the rally in energy prices certainly throw a shadow on the latest optimism, keeping the inflation worries tight, as the soaring energy prices are one of the major responsible for the skyrocketing inflation. The barrel of US crude rallied above the $115 mark, and consolidates above this level this morning. The US dollar continues softening, the EURUSD tests 1.0750 offers, gold remains bid above the 200-dma though with a fading positive momentum. Turkish Lira (TRY) The lira, on the other remains, and should remain under decent negative pressure as the central bank insists keeping its policy rate at 14% level. And finally, Bitcoin slides below the $30K mark as the ECB points to financial stability concerns due to cryptocurrencies. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:32 Fed is not 'that' hawkish after all! 2:54 Market update 4:19 Dark clouds above our head 5:17 Citi says 'buy the dip' in European & EM stocks 7:14 I say 'be careful' with Turkish BIST & the lira 9:00 FX, commodity update: EUR, Gold and Bitcoin Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
Fed And US Dollar (USD) Are All About Mixed Feelings, Christine Lagarde And ECB In General May Support Euro Even In July. BoE's Bailey Also Teases A Rate Hike. XAU, XAG And Crude Oil Went Higher As USD Weakened | OneRoyal

Fed And US Dollar (USD) Are All About Mixed Feelings, Christine Lagarde And ECB In General May Support Euro Even In July. BoE's Bailey Also Teases A Rate Hike. XAU, XAG And Crude Oil Went Higher As USD Weakened | OneRoyal

OneRoyal Market Updates OneRoyal Market Updates 30.05.2022 10:14
Weekly Recap It was another bearish week for the US Dollar as the greenback continued to sell off from YTD highs. The FOMC meeting minutes, released mid-week, did little to inspire a fresh rally in the Dollar. While the minutes confirmed the Fed’s hawkish stance and reinforced expectations for further 50bps hikes in June and July, there was little in the way of exciting details to get bulls reinvigorated. Additionally, with the Fed having seemingly turned more hawkish since that meeting, the minutes felt a little outdated. Christine Lagarde, ECB And Rate Hikes On the data front, a string of weaker-than-expected indicators out of the eurozone heightened growth concerns. With ECB’s Lagarde essentially confirming a July rate-hike, recession fears weighed on European asset markets though EUR itself remained well bid. Elsewhere, equities markets generally saw a choppy week though most indices ended the week in the green, benefitting from the weaker US Dollar. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM BOE’s Bailey warned that further rate hikes will likely be necessary in the face of rising inflation. The new fiscal package announced by the UK government this week, aimed at helping households fight rising energy bills, has further increased the likelihood of BOE rate hikes in the near-term. Weaker Dollar, Stronger Crude, Gold And Silver Commodities prices were higher over the week also. Gold, silver and oil all rallied on the back of a weaker US Dollar. With monetary policy divergence between the Fed and other central banks drying up, USD pressure has helped commodities stay afloat recently. Coming Up This Week Australian GDP Australian GDP will be closely watched this week on the back of the recent RBA rate hike. With the bank lifting rates and sounding firmly hawkish in its outlook and assessment, this week’s data might further support growing RBA rate hike expectations. With the country having emerged from one of the longest lockdowns of the pandemic, the economy has been on the bounce-back. However, as we have seen elsewhere, the economy has still been rocked by rising inflation and supply constraints. Traders will be keen to see the extent to which these factors weighed on the economy over the last quarter. BOC Rate Decision The BOC is widely expected to raise rates when it convenes for this month’s meeting mid-week. All 30 economists polled by Reuters ahead of the event are looking for a .5% hike. With this in mind, the focus will be on the bank’s forward guidance. If the BOC gives a clear signal that further hikes are coming in the near future, this should drive CAD higher near-term. However, if there is any indication that the BOC might look to hold off on any further rate hikes near-term, this will likely see cad dragged lower. Read next: Altcoins: Cardano (ADA) What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into Cardano (ADA) | FXMAG.COM US Non-Farm Payrolls The latest set of US labour market indicators this week will be closely watched as we head to the June meeting. Recent Fed commentary has been decidedly hawkish and it would likely take a major downside shock to change this narrative. Even then, it certainly wouldn’t impact the June rate hike and would likely only factor in forward guidance issued by the Fed. Still, with slowdown fears building, any weakness would no doubt act as a headwind to risk sentiment in the short-term. Forex Heat Map Technical Analysis Our favourite chart this week is the Dollar Index (DXY) The DYX has pulled back from recent multi-year highs and is now sitting on a make-or-break level at 101.94. This level was the 2020 closing high price. While the level holds as support, DXY is likely to recover and continue the longer-term bull trend. Below here, however, there is room for the correction to develop further towards next support at 100.37 Economic Calendar Plenty of key data releases to keep an eye on this week including Australian GDP, BOC rate decision and US Non-Farm Payrolls to name a few. Please see full calendar below for the complete schedule . Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
Oil rallies, gold steady

WTI And Brent (Crude Oil) Trade Really High, OPEC+ Is Expected Not To Support The Price. (XAUUSD) Gold Price Seems To Pausing And Resembling "The Calm Before The Storm" | Oanda

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 30.05.2022 14:54
Brent crude rises above USD 120.00 The disconnect between energy prices and optimism in equity markets continues today in Asia. On Friday, oil prices surged once again, driven by an unrelenting squeeze on refined products, notably diesel and gasoline, globally, with the US driving season about to begin in earnest. Brent crude rose by 1.63% to USD 119.20 a barrel on Friday, rallying another 0.70% to USD 120.05 this morning. WTI rose by 0.85% to USD 115.10 a barrel on Friday, rallying another 0.83% higher to USD 116.05 in Asia today. Markets pricing in peak virus in Beijing and Shanghai are behind the rally in oil prices today, with a China reopening likely leading to increased oil consumption. Unlike recent times, markets seem unconcerned about oil moving back to March highs, emphasising how much pent-up risk-sentiment demand there appears to be out there. We can expect no solace from OPEC+ on production increases on Thursday. The grouping cannot pump to meet its present quotas as it is, and a 430,000 bpd increase is all we can expect. Additionally, the EU Russian oil import ban is still a work in progress and if it gets over the line this week, expect supplies to tighten again. As such, the risks are now increasing of a move towards the post-Ukraine highs we saw in February. Both Brent crude and WTI are at the top of my expected medium-term ranges at USD 120.00 and USD 115.00 respectively. A weekly close above these levels would be a major signal indicating more gains ahead. Brent crude’s next technical resistance is at USD 124.00 a barrel, and then USD 132.00, with support at USD 116.00. WTI has resistance nearby at USD 116.70 a barrel, with nothing afterwards until USD 127.00 a barrel. Support is at USD 115.00 and USD 113.00 a barrel. Gold trades sideways Gold seems determined to bore traders to death after another inconclusive overnight range-trading session. It finished Friday 0.13% lower at USD 1853.00 an ounce, before gaining 0.44% to USD 186.75 an ounce in Asia today. Gold’s price action continues to suggest caution, with the US dollar sell-off not translating to any meaningful gold strength. If global risk sentiment turns lower, gold could quickly follow. Gold has nearby support at USD 1840.00, followed by USD 1836.00 an ounce. Failure sees the possibility of a mini-capitulation by longs that could reach as far as USD 1780.00 an ounce. Gold has resistance here at USD 1862.00, ​ then USD 1870.00, followed by USD 1886.00 an ounce, its 100-day moving average. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Can Price Of Gold Reach $1900 Soon? Lower Yields And Weaker US Dollar (USD) Makes Dollar Go Higher | FXStreet

Can Price Of Gold Reach $1900 Soon? Lower Yields And Weaker US Dollar (USD) Makes Dollar Go Higher | FXStreet

FXStreet News FXStreet News 30.05.2022 16:41
Gold Price traded with upside on Monday as the US dollar continued to fade despite holiday-thinned trading conditions. XAUUSD was last changing hands near $1,860 and eyeing recent highs having found decent support at its 21 and 200 DMAs. Should market participants continue to pare Fed tightening bets, gold could reclaim $1,900, even if risk appetite also rebounds. Gold Price (XAU/USD) is trading with an upside bias in quiet, US holiday-thinned trade and eyeing a test of last week’s highs around $1,870 per troy ounce. At current levels around $1,860, XAUUSD is about 0.4% higher, having found support earlier in the session at the 21-Day Moving Average (at $1,849.25) and amid continued technical buying after spot prices found solid support at the 200 DMA (at $1,840) last week. US Economic Data Gold’s advances on Monday come despite a positive tone to global macro trade and are being driven by a continued weakening to fresh monthly lows in the US dollar. In wake of US Consumer Price Inflation data released earlier in the month and Core PCE inflation data released last week, market participants have become less worried about inflation in the US and, as a result, Fed tightening bets have seen a modest pullback (i.e. for H2 2022 and 2023). Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM US Bonds And US Dollar (USD) Helps XAUUSD US bond markets are closed on Monday, but price action in gold and USD markets suggests that yields will probably open the week lower, a continuation of the weakening trend that has, in tandem with the recent weakening of the US dollar, boosted XAUUSD by over 4.0% from sub-$1,790 mid-month lows. US data will be in focus this week with various tier one releases including the May ISM Manufacturing PMI survey and official May labour market report all out later in the week. Read next: Altcoins: Cardano (ADA) What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into Cardano (ADA) | FXMAG.COM Inflation Analysts argued that should the trends of easing US inflation fears, easing Fed tightening bets and subsequently, more downside in US yields and the buck continue, that could be a bullish medium-term driver for gold, even if it also boosts risk appetite (i.e. US equities). With XAUUSD having found such strong support at its 21 and 200 DMAs, the outlook for further upside towards the 50 DMA near $1,900 looks good. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
Oil rallies, gold steady

The EU's Ban Affects Crude Oil Price, Gold Price (XAU/USD) Wouldn't Have Become A Blockbuster | Oanda

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 31.05.2022 22:31
Europe’s ban on Russian oil sends black gold higher The announcement that a partial EU ban on Russian oil imports has made it over the finish line sent oil prices higher overnight. Recovering PMI data from China today, and by default recovering energy consumption, has seen the rally continue in Asia. The price action by oil this past week has been ominous, suggesting that supplies of refined products is getting worse, and not better. The EU oil ban on Russia further complicates that picture and I am wondering how long markets can continue bottom-fishing elsewhere while ignoring oil’s price rise. Overnight, Brent crude rose by 2.05% to USD 121.65 a barrel, and today, it has rallied another 1.20% to USD 123.10. WTI rallied by 2.20% to USD 177.65 overnight, gaining another 0.80% to USD 118.55 in Asia today. Brent crude is now a hair’s breadth away from resistance at USD 123.80, after which there is no resistance on the charts until USD 131.60 a barrel. Support lies at USD 116.00 a barrel. WTI has taken out resistance at USD 116.70 a barrel, which now becomes support, followed by USD 116.00. The USD 120.00 region will provide some psychological, and possibly option-related resistance, but there is now nothing on the charts until USD 126.80 barrel. Markets will find no solace from this week’s OPEC+ production meeting, as outlined in yesterday’s note. If China is reopening, and Europe is limiting Russian oil, there is only one obvious direction from here, for too long, ignored by markets. Only a surprise Iran deal, unlikely as they are seizing tankers at the moment, or a capitulation to Venezuela’s autocratic government, could change the supply/demand dynamic. Neither would alleviate the squeeze in refined products underpinning the rally. Gold trades sideways Gold seems determined to bore traders to death after another inconclusive overnight range-trading session. It probed resistance around USD 1860.00 an ounce overnight but retreated to finish just 0.14% higher at USD 1855.80 an ounce, marking another inconclusive session. Ominously, gold has fallen in Asia at the first sign of US Dollar strength, Gold has eased by 0.13% to USD 1853.50 an ounce. ​ Gold’s price action continues to suggest caution, with the US dollar sell-off not translating to any meaningful gold strength. If global risk sentiment turns lower, gold could quickly follow. Gold has nearby support at USD 1840.00, followed by USD 1836.00 an ounce. Failure sees the possibility of a mini-capitulation by longs that could reach as far as USD 1780.00 an ounce. Gold has resistance here at USD 1862.00, then USD 1870.00, followed by USD 1886.00 an ounce, its 100-day moving average. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Trading tips for gold  | InstaForex

Is It Possible For Gold Price (XAU/USD) To Reach $1900? How Can Interest Rates And US Dollar (USD) Interrupt Gold Strengthening? | Oanda

Craig Erlam Craig Erlam 02.06.2022 08:59
Or a failed recovery? Gold fell heavily between the middle of April and May but then started to recover as interest rate expectations were pared back. How sustainable is the recovery? Gold - Gathering momentum? - MarketPulseMarketPulse It ran into trouble quite quickly around $1,870, at which point it struggled to gather any upward momentum. But after falling back towards $1,830 today, that may have changed. A rotation off the 50% Fibonacci retracement level – mid-May lows to late-May highs – which coincides with the 200/233-day SMA band may signal a resumption of the recovery that sees it test last week’s highs. If so, then perhaps gold could enjoy more of a recovery and a run at $1,900. But that may depend on how the broader markets behave and whether yields and the dollar avoid rising much further. A failure at $1,850 or $1,870 could spell trouble for the yellow metal, especially if accompanied by higher interest rate expectations and a stronger dollar. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Oil prices steady, gold in choppy waters | Oanda

OPEC+ Leaves Investors And Markets Confused As Russia May Not Hit its Crude Oil Output Quota. Gold Price (XAU/USD) Interacts With Fed's Rate Hike Fears | Oanda

Ed Moya Ed Moya 01.06.2022 23:00
Oil Oil prices are rallying as the crude fundamentals continue to turn bullish, while uncertainty persists with how OPEC+ will handle Russia’s output quota and if the group will be able to deliver more output in the coming months. Economic data from the US shows the economy is holding up, which supports the idea that crude demand should improve and that this will be a strong driving season. OPEC+ needs to figure out how they will handle Russia’s crude output quota, but regardless the group as a whole has limited spare capacity.  This oil market will remain tight until demand destruction becomes an issue, but right now that doesn’t seem like that will happen anytime soon.  Oil rallies, gold turns positive - MarketPulseMarketPulse Gold rises on market jitters Gold is getting its groove back on safe-haven flows as investor worries return that the Fed may not be easing up its rate-hiking campaign anytime soon. Wage pressures in the US are not easing and that should keep inflationary pressures going for a few more months. The war in Ukraine could see an escalation after the US has signaled they will give Ukraine advanced rocket systems.  Gold could thrive as safe-haven flows will only grow as geopolitical risks remain elevated and over fears of aggressive global central bank tightening. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Market Insights Podcast (Episode 347) | Oanda

How Have (BTC/USD) Bitcoin Price, Gold Price And Stocks Been Doing This Week? | BeInCrypto

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 03.06.2022 13:07
Be[in]Crypto brings you an overview of this week’s price movements for bitcoin (BTC), gold, and our stock pick, GameStop.     BTC While an improvement over the prior two weeks, bitcoin has been struggling to maintain a $30,000 baseline. Trading just below $29,000 on May 19, BTC rose above $30,000 the next day, but swiftly returned below. Over the next two days it trickled upward, before accelerating up to $30,000 by May 24. Hitting resistance again, it dropped back down to $29,000 and failed to recover over the next few days, eventually slipping further down to $28,250 by May 27. While it rose a bit over the following days, BTC spiked on May 30, reaching $32,000 by May 31. Once again, BTC plummeted from there to $29,000 by June 2 and is now trading around $30,000.     Bitcoin’s rise to $32,000 was a result of markets responding to the relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions in China, in addition to the possibility that the Federal Reserve could loosen its hawkish stance later this year. “Bitcoin’s price action today is not entirely surprising,” said Joe DiPasquale, the CEO of crypto fund manager BitBull. “Not only is it facing pressure from traditional markets, it has also been struggling to breach the resistance zone between $31K-$32K, resulting in a breakdown from the range it set over the weekend.” GOLD The gold price has fared well over the past two weeks. Trading around $1,810 on May 19, it then shot up to $1,845 later that day, before rising even further to $1,865 by May 23. While sinking a bit from there, gold rose a bit higher by May 24 before sinking a bit back to $1,845. Over the next few days, gold reached $1,855, then dropped down further to $1,830 by June 1. However, over the past day, it has surged and is now trading around $1,865.  Gold prices rose yesterday bolstered by a dip in the dollar and data showing U.S. private payrolls rose less than expected last month. “[The job data] is really raising the recession concerns that have been brewing in the market and supporting gold,” said Ryan McKay, commodity strategist at TD Securities. According to ADP National Employment Report data, private payrolls rose by 128,000 jobs last month against a forecast for an increase of 300,000 jobs. GME GameStop shares have trickled down over the past two month, but have surged over the past week. At the beginning of April, GME dropped from $190, and had fallen to $140 by April 18. Despite a brief recovery, it continued to trickle down, hitting $115 by May 1. While maintaining around $120 the next few days, it continued to fall and hit $80 by May 11. It then shot up the next day to nearly $110 and traded between $100 and $90 until May 25. From there it shot up to nearly $150 on May 26, and while it has fallen a bit since then, it is currently trading around $135. During its latest financial results, GameStop reported sales of $1.378 billion, up from $1.277 billion during the same period last year. The company said that new and expanded brand relationships have helped boost sales, in what is likely a reference to its crypto efforts. CEO Matt Furlong said in the earnings call: “We firmly believe that digital assets are core to the future of gaming,” giving a clear indication that the company is going to double down on its digital assets strategy. GameStop will release its highly anticipated NFT marketplace in the second quarter of the year, which should inject a lot of life into the company’s business, having seen a resurgence since last year’s stock incident.  Disclaimer All the information contained on our website is published in good faith and for general information purposes only. Any action the reader takes upon the information found on our website is strictly at their own risk.   Source: BeInCrypto
Why Do Central Banks Buy Gold...? Price Of Gold (XAUUSD) Decreased On Friday | FxPro

Why Do Central Banks Buy Gold...? Price Of Gold (XAUUSD) Decreased On Friday | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 06.06.2022 12:12
Gold lost 1% to $1850 on Friday, declining under pressure from the overall pull from risky assets. For short-term traders, it is also telling that this decline mostly erased the gains of the first few days of the month and prevented the rebound from turning into new upside momentum. Gold came up against the resistance of sellers on Friday, as it did a fortnight ago, trying to move above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line from the highs of April near $2000 to the lows of May, below $1790. The following potentially significant level is the $1840 area, where the 200-day moving average passes. In early June, the buyers prevented gold from getting below that line, but it makes sense to expect that the bears have entirely abandoned the idea of breaking below it. It is also interesting that an increase in central bank buying accompanied the fall in the price of gold in April. For April, new data from the World Gold Council showed net purchases by global central banks of 19.4 tonnes after net sales in March. Central bank purchases should not be taken as a bullish signal for the market as regulators often acted as market stabilisers by selling in the early 2000s during one of the strongest rallies. Uzbekistan (+9.4t), Turkey (+5.6t) and Kazakhstan (+5.3t) were the most substantial buyers of gold. Sales were more modest, with Germany (-0.9t) and Mexico and the Czech Republic (-0.1t each) contributing the most. In our view, net purchases of gold by EMs and sales by developed economies indicate a relatively benign financial environment in the global economy. Otherwise, EMs were forced to sell gold to protect their currencies from declines.
Oil well supported, gold dips

Oil steady, gold range-trades | Oanda

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 07.06.2022 12:33
Oil is steady in Asia Oil’s intraday gains overnight were pared back in New York as US yields and the US dollar climbed, leaving both Brent crude and WTI slightly lower for the session. Brent crude finished 1.05% lower at USD 119.95 a barrel, and WTI finished 1.10% lower at USD 119.00 a barrel. Asian markets are very much in wait-and-see mode, with Brent crude slightly higher at USD 120.15 a barrel and WTI edging higher to USD 119.25 a barrel. Whichever way you look at it though, both Brent and WTI prices are nearing post-Ukraine highs, stripping at the days of the initial hostilities themselves. Returning Venezuelan and Libyan production to Europe and North America, should it occur, will not be material enough in the shorter term to force prices lower. Refining margins globally suggest that demand for petrol and diesel remain in heavy demand, with the refining logjam in refined products backstopping crude prices. Additionally, the damp squib OPEC+ meeting outcome, with some production bones thrown to some angry dogs, and a potential recovery in demand from mainland China has got on top of omicron, provides yet more reasons to believe that physical demand will keep prices elevated. Brent crude has resistance at USD 122.00, and USD 124.00, with support distant at USD 116.00 and USD 112.50 a barrel. WTI has resistance at USD 121.00, with distant support at USD 115.00 and USD 111.25 a barrel. Gold’s flip-flop ranging continues Gold continues to bore traders to death as range trading and reversals by a thousand cuts continue. Overnight, a stronger US dollar and firmer US yields pushed gold 0.50% lower to USD 1842.00 an ounce, where it remains in yet another moribund Asian session. The chart picture shows gold is now eroding resistance at USD 1870.00, touching USD 1874.00 an ounce on Friday. But overall, resistance at USD 1870.00 remains intact, followed by the 100-DMA at USD 1889.00, and then USD 1900.00. Support at USD 1844.00 has given way, opening further falls to USD 1830.00  and then USD 1780.00 an ounce. I do not discount a disorderly retreat if the latter fails. Gold remains at the mercy of intraday directional moves by the US dollar and US yields. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Oil edges lower, gold flat

Oil clutching to US 120, gold drifting | Oanda

Craig Erlam Craig Erlam 07.06.2022 18:39
Oil struggling to hold above USD 120 Oil is continuing to struggle around USD 120 on Tuesday, with Brent and WTI very slightly lower. We’ve seen USD 120 broken on a few occasions over the last week but each time it’s been quickly repelled in a sign of momentum starting to run a little thin. The fundamentals remain bullish for oil prices as China continues to reopen and the OPEC+ “production hike” does little to alleviate the tightness in the market. Still, it’s been a very strong run over the last month, with the price up more than 20% from the May lows. We could potentially see some profit-taking in the short-term but it’s hard to imagine it being too severe, barring significant growth downgrades or a surge in Covid cases in China. Gold consolidation continues As has so often been the case in recent weeks, gold is continuing to fluctuate around USD 1,850 today and showing little sign of a burst in either direction. It struggled once more around USD 1,870 on Friday, reinforcing it as a key area of resistance to the upside, while USD 1,830 continues to be the first line of support below. We may have to wait for the inflation data at the end of the week for an interesting move in either direction. For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Oil clutching to US 120, gold drifting - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Trading Signal for Gold (XAU/USD) on June 7-8, 2022: buy above $1,842 (21 SMA - descending wedge)

Trading Signal for Gold (XAU/USD) on June 7-8, 2022: buy above $1,842 (21 SMA - descending wedge)

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 07.06.2022 19:23
Relevance up to 16:00 2022-06-10 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.   Gold (XAU/USD) is rebounding from the daily low at $1,833 and is now trading above the 21 SMA and below the 200 EMA on 1-hour charts. It is currently located at $1,845, making a slight correction after having found resistance at the 200 EMA around $1,850. According to the 1-hour chart, we can see the formation of a descending wedge. The breakout of this pattern could confirm the bullish movement of gold and it could reach the resistance zone of 6/8 Murray around $1,875 in the coming hours. Gold benefited as US Treasury yields have fallen during the European session and are likely to continue their decline during the American session. Additionally, the US dollar index is also showing signs of weakness which favors gold. Consolidation on the 4-hour chart and a daily close above $1,850 could mean acceleration of the bullish move, and the outlook for gold is positive as it could reach the zone of $1,865 and $1,875. Investors are concerned about the rate hike in the US because it reduces the demand for this safe-haven asset that does not generate interest or return. As long as it remains trading below 6/8 Murray, any momentum in gold will be considered a technical correction. The bearish pressure exerted below this zone could send gold lower again. In the medium term, a close above $1,875(6/8) could mean an advance in gold as it could reach the psychological level of $1,900 or even the zone of 7/8 Murray at 1,937. In the short term, our signals remain positive due to the falling wedge pattern. This technical figure should be confirmed if gold consolidates above the 200 EMA. If this happens, we could buy gold with targets at $1,869 and $1,875. The eagle indicator has reached the extreme oversold zone since June 6 which is an imminent sign of a technical correction in the next few hours, supporting our bullish strategy.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/279149
Crude Oil Rebounds, Gold Price Struggles | Oanda

Crude Oil: Both Brent And WTI Increased, Gold Prise Rose, But Still It Trades Quite Low | Oanda

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 08.06.2022 14:03
Oil is steady in Asia Oil prices rose slightly overnight as tight refined supplies persist in the US, and industrial action in Norway and a shutting down of a Libyan oil field continued supporting prices at recent highs. Brent crude finished 0.75% higher at USD 120.75 a barrel, and WTI rose 0.30% to USD 119.75 a barrel. Asia is once again adopting a wait-and-see position, with Brent and WTI unchanged in regional trading. Oil prices remain at post-Ukraine invasion highs if you strip out the days when tanks rolled across the borders. Returning Venezuelan and Libyan production to Europe and North America, should it occur, will not be material enough in the shorter term to force prices lower. Refining margins globally suggest that demand for petrol and diesel remain in heavy demand, with the refining logjam in refined products backstopping crude prices. A reopening China is also supportive of oil prices. Brent crude has resistance at USD 122.00, and USD 124.00, with support at USD 116.00 and USD 112.50 a barrel. WTI has resistance at USD 121.00, with current support at USD 115.00 and USD 111.25 a barrel. Gold’s flip-flop ranging continues A weaker US dollar into the end of the New York session saw yet another mechanical response by gold, which rose 0.56% to USD 1852.50 an ounce in another snooze-fest session. In Asia, some US Dollar strength had sent it 0.25% lower to USD 1848.00 an ounce in an automatic response. Until we get a material move one way or the other by the greenback, gold’s range trading looks set to persist. Gold has resistance at USD 1870.00, followed by the 100-DMA at USD 1889.00, and then USD 1900.00. Support is at USD 1837, USD 1830.00, and then USD 1780.00 an ounce. I do not discount a disorderly retreat if the latter fails. The wider USD 1830.00 to USD 1870.00 range seems set to continue until Friday. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Oil edges higher, gold directionless - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Gold Price Has Been Affected By Fears Of Recession And Hawkish Rhetoric Of Fed (Federal Reserve)

(XAU/USD) Has Gold Price Changed? Trading plan for Gold on June 17, 2022 | InstaForex

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 17.06.2022 14:23
Relevance up to 13:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Technical outlook: Gold prices rose through $1857 highs before finding resistance late during the New York Session on Thursday. The yellow metal is seen to be trading around the $1846 mark at this point in writing and is expected to find support close to $1830 intraday. Bulls will be poised to resume higher thereafter and hold prices above $1805 interim lows. Gold prices are broadly within a counter-trend rally since the $1,786 low registered in May 2022. The precious metal has successfully terminated the first and second waves around $1,880 and $1,805 respectively. If the above structure holds well, prices are on their way towards $1920 going forward. Gold prices might encounter intraday support around the $1,830 mark, in line with the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of its lower degree upswing between $1,815 and $1,857. Notably, the metal is working on a larger degree downswing between $1,998 and $1,786 and the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement is seen towards $1,920 as well. There is a high probability of a bearish turn thereafter. Trading plan: Potential rally through $1920 against $1781 Good luck!   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/280627
Analysis of Gold for June 30,.2022 - Key decision pivot on the test at $1.814  | InstaForex

Crude Oil steady around US 120, Price Of Gold under pressure | Oanda

Craig Erlam Craig Erlam 17.06.2022 16:09
Oil steady as European gas prices surge Oil prices are relatively steady at the end of the week, just shy of USD 120. Despite the correction over the last week or so, the market remains extremely tight and the price risks still remain tilted to the upside. With OPEC+ now reportedly missing output targets by 2.7 million barrels per day and setting unachievable targets for the summer, that gap will widen. The pressure in the market isn’t going to ease any time soon. Gas prices in Europe on the other hand have been surging as Russia once again appears to weaponise supplies to Germany and Italy, which remain heavily reliant on it. Both are complying with the rouble payment demands and yet have seen their flows hit heavily, with Gazprom blaming repairs as being behind the drop-off. It comes as both countries attempt to fill up reserves ahead of the winter which some suggest is no coincidence. Gold Price (XAUUSD) struggles after a brief recovery Gold has had a good run over the last couple of days as central banks have played catchup with the Fed, lifting their currencies and weakening the dollar in the process. US yields easing off their highs have also contributed to the greenback paring gains. The dollar remains king though and we’re very much seeing that today with it trading almost 1% higher which has forced gold back below USD 1,850. No doubt volatility is going nowhere with central banks now in panic mode and every piece of data being poured over for further signs of stubborn inflation and economic vulnerability. For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Oil steady around US 120, gold under pressure - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Italy: CPI Inflation Hit 8% - It's The Highest Value In Almost 40 Years! Food Prices Increased To 9.1%

Gold Price Or FX - What's More Volatile Now? What's Ahead EURCHF And USDCHF After SNB Decision? Price Of Crude Oil Dropped. Awaiting Powell's (Fed) Testimony | Saxo Bank

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 20.06.2022 10:26
Summary:  Equity markets tried to end last week’s grueling sell-off with a positive flourish on Friday, as oil prices dropped by the most in several weeks and firmness in safe haven bond markets kept bond yields at the low end of the week’s range. But are those developments down to investor concern that a recession is incoming? The week ahead features semi-annual testimony from Fed Chair Powell before Congress and global preliminary June PMI surveys.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) Despite extreme volatility in cryptocurrencies and another “stablecoin (USDD)” losing its peg to the USD, US equities futures are starting the week on mild positive note. S&P 500 futures are trading slightly higher at the 3,690 level and will likely try to test the opening price from last Wednesday’s session at around the 3,743 level if risk sentiment remains positive today. There are no important macro events today so trading will be light, also due to today being a holiday in the US so cash equity markets are closed, and potentially take their lead from cryptocurrencies, although we expect the correlation to begin to decline with cryptocurrencies reducing itself to a small and isolated pocket of the market again. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s CSI300 Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI.I) and China’s CSI300 (000300.I) were fluctuating between modest gains and losses. Chinese property names surged with COLI (00688) and CR Land (01109) rising 9% and 8% respectively. According to Beke Research, secondary market home sales volume in China’s top 50 cities rose more than 20% in the first 10 days of June from last month. June Emerging Industries PMI came at 52.5, 3.6pp higher than May. With COVID outbreak, Macao gaming stocks fell. China’s 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rate remain unchanged. EURCHF and USDCHF The Swiss franc was in for a positive shock last week after a surprise hike – and a large 50-basis point one – from the Swiss National Bank altered the landscape for CHF traders, suggesting the central bank is less concerned with always lagging the ECB in its policy move and a moderating of concerns about the CHF level versus EUR, as a strong franc is potentially one tool that can help ease inflationary pressures. EURCHF reset lower to sub-1.0200 levels after trading between 1.04-1.05 before last week’s meeting. Focus now is on the parity level that was briefly touched in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. USDCHF is another focus, trading below 0.9700 after trading as high as parity before the decision. The 0.9500-0.9550 area is the next technical focus area there. USDJPY and JPY pairs A very challenging backdrop here for JPY traders, as the Bank of Japan’s insistence on maintaining its negative 0.10% policy rate and more importantly, the yield-curve-control policy by which it caps 10-year Japanese government bond yields at 0.25%, was seen as very JPY negative last week in the wake of a US Fed hiking the most since 1994 and the SNB executing a surprise large hike etc. At the same time, global bond markets rallied hard to close the week, particularly in the dominant US treasury market, with oil markets in a nosedive on Friday, both supportive developments for the Japanese yen. Focus for USDJPY traders remains on the 135.00+ cycle top, which may hold as long as US longer treasury yields are capped below cycle highs. To the downside, last week’s low near 131.50 was close to the prior major pivot high of 131.35. Crude oil Crude oil (OILUKAUG22 & OILUSJUL22) plunged almost 7% on Friday after growth worries signaled by the FOMC aggressive action to bring down inflation spread from the stock market and industrial metals to fortress oil and fuel. A sector which up until now has seen limited contagion risks given the tight supply outlook amid Russian sanction, OPEC+ producers struggling to raise production and lack of refinery capacity. Speculators turned net sellers of WTI in the week to June 14 following several failed attempts to break higher, potentially a signal we have entered another period of consolidation, but still with the underlying risk of eventually moving higher.  Gold Gold (XAUUSD) remains rangebound following a week of high drama that saw dramatic yield spikes being offset by growing unease about the economic outlook with recession worries on the rise as central banks step up their efforts to curb inflation. Focus on the dollar and Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday (see below). Speculators cut bullish futures to a nine-month low ahead of last week’s FOMC rate hike announcement while total bullion-backed ETF holdings on Friday dropped to three months low, both highlighting the current uncertainty about the short-term direction. Copper HG Copper (COPPERUSSEP22) has returned to the key $4/lb support area after falling around 10% during the past two weeks on China and global growth worries. Iron ore (SCON2) traded in Singapore and metallurgical coal in Shanghai, both key inputs to the production of steel have lost around 20% during the same period. China’s slumping property market and the country’s inability to put the coronavirus behind it remain a major headwind, and one that inadvertently is supporting the efforts to curb inflation through lower input costs. Copper, rangebound for more than a year, is in the short-term at risk of breaking lower with the next level of support at $3.86 before $3.50. US Treasuries US treasuries (TLT, IEF) remained firm on Friday, keeping yields at the lower end of the week’s range and near the important tipping point around 3.20% for the 10-year Treasury yield benchmark, which was the prior yield high on the way up. US data surprises have tilted increasingly negative of late and a huge sell-off in crude oil on Friday may drive slightly lower inflation expectations if the lower prices stick. US Fed Chair Powell is up this week with semi-annual testimony before Senate and House committees on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Crypto rout extends with Bitcoin The largest and one of the more stable crypto assets, plunging below the critical 20k level over the weekend after it slid 15% on Saturday. This signals not just further stress in the crypto space but also broader stress in financial markets as liquidity conditions tighten. What is going on? French President Macron loses absolute majority in Parliament After the second round of parliamentary elections completed yesterday, President Macron’s centrist coalition will only win about 245 of of the 277 seats, with a leftist coalition headed by Jean-Luc Melenchon taking 131, and Marine Le Pen’s right populist National Rally at 89 seats.  The euro is taking the news in stride, but this result will hamper President Macron’s reform agenda, including his intent to raise the retirement age and reform the pension system. The tug of war between inflation and recession means room for policy error With the central banks bucking up on the tightening bandwagon last week, we are seeing a more serious fight against inflation which is set to rise further above 9% levels in the UK this week and remains in the 8% range for the US. However, this historic tightening pace following the Fed’s 75bps rate hike last week has meant further fears of an economic slowdown. A slew of weak US data reported last week also aggravated those concerns. Markets will continue to be choppy as investors weigh inflation/recession concerns, but the long-term bear trend is here to stay. The abrupt policy turn also means an increasing scope of policy error. Keeping an eye on corporate credit markets... ... after at least one measure of US high yield corporate spreads rose to a new cycle high last week above 500 basis points above US Treasury yields, above the mid-May high of 482 basis points and up over 100 basis points from the lows in early June. The two most widely tracked high yield ETF’s, HYG and JNK, closed sharply lower last week and are down around 15% (less in total return terms) from their late 2021 highs. What are we watching next? US Fed Chair Powell semi-annual testimony this week before House and Senate committees The Fed Chair will be in the hot seat this week in the required semi-annual testimony before Congress, where politicians on the committees often take a chance to grandstand on their own political positions and observations, but after several months of decades-high inflation and record gasoline prices, will this week’s testimony show that the political pressure on the Fed is mounting? The market will also watch for any new comments from the Fed Chair, although we are just a few days removed from the FOMC press conference. U.S. housing data are out on Tuesday The housing market is in a vulnerable position. Prices are up almost 40 % since the outbreak, mostly reflecting stimulus-fueled demand. But with high inflation across the board pushing consumer confidence downward and mortgage rates surging following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle, the risks of hard landing are tilted on the upside. Over the past few weeks, several large real estate firms such as Redfin Corporation have warned against the risk of slowdown. Expect a drop in May’s existing home sales and perhaps a new plunge in the number of new home sales after disappointing data in April (minus 16.6 %). The U.S. housing market is certainly the most vulnerable segment of the U.S. economy at the moment. It will be key to monitor the upcoming data in order to assess whether there is a material risk of recession or not. May UK CPI is out on Wednesday This will be painful. Expect a new increase to 9.1 % year-over-year in May against 9.0 % in April. Last week, the Bank of England (BoE) hiked rates by 25 basis points. This was expected. But political pressure is increasing on the central bank to do more while other developed market central banks have embraced a more hawkish tone (U.S. Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of Australia, National Bank of Hungary, for instance). If inflation continues to rise (which is our baseline), we would not be surprised if we see the BoE go for an inter-meeting 25 basis points hike before the 4 August meet. Other central banks have done it recently, such as the National Bank of Hungary which decided a surprise 50 basis point hike to support the HUF last week. This only eased temporarily downward pressure on HUF. Earnings Watch This week’s earnings calendar is light but there are three important earnings releases to watch and those are Lennar, FedEx, and Accenture providing insights into the US housing market, logistics, and business spending dynamics (if you believe management consultancy is part of business spending). Today: Kanzhun Tuesday: Lennar Thursday: FedEx, Accenture, Darden Restaurants, FactSet Friday: Carnival, China Gas, CarMax Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0800 – Switzerland Weekly Sight Deposits 0800 – UK BoE’s Haskel to speak 1300 – ECB President Lagarde to speak 1500 – ECB President Lagarde to speak 1645 – US Fed’s Bullard to speak 1930 – ECB Chief Economist Lane to speak 0000 – Australia RBA Governor Lowe to speak 0130 – Australia RBA Meeting Minutes Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – June 20, 2022 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
Should Drivers Worry About Fuel Prices Again? Will Crude Oil Price Go Up!?

Oil moves higher, gold range-trades | Oanda

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 21.06.2022 12:17
Oil prices start reversing the Friday slump As I outlined above, oil futures have started reversing the Friday price slump as speculative capitulation collides with the reality of tight energy markets in the real world. Brent crude held USD 112.00 overnight, finishing 0.92% higher at USD 114.05 a barrel. It has added another 0.85% to USD 115.15 a barrel in Asian trading today. WTI held USD 108.50 overnight, finishing 0.20% higher at USD 110.05 a barrel. It has jumped 1.20% higher to USD 111.50 a barrel in Asian trading.   Friday’s falls have bought my six-month support lines back into focus. On Brent crude, that is at USD 107.00 a barrel today, just below its 100-day moving average (DMA) at USD 107.95. Ahead of this, it has support at USD 112.00, with resistance at USD 116.00 a barrel. WTI’s six-month support line is at USD 106.25 a barrel, just ahead of its 100-DMA at 105.25. It has interim support at USD 108.50, and resistance at USD 112.50 a barrel.   Of the two, WTI looks the more vulnerable, having fallen further and closed closer to its multi-month support zone. If the US cuts federal fuel taxes this week, or US housing data is very soft, that could be enough to tip the scales lower. It is hard to see either contract moving lower than USD 100.00 a barrel given the state of the physical market. From a technical perspective, I would like to see one of either contract tracing out a couple of daily closes below the longer-term support lines and the 100-DMAs, before reassessing my longer-term bullish outlook.   Gold range continues It was another wax-on, wax-off day for gold overnight thanks to US markets being closed. It edged 0.11% lower to USD 1839.00 an ounce. In Asia, it has gained slightly by 0.12% to USD 1840.60 an ounce as comatose trading conditions continue.   Despite the noise of the past week, it remains anchored in the middle of its one-month range. The overnight price action shows that the inverse correlation to the US dollar is as strong as ever.   Gold has resistance at USD 1860.00 and USD 1880.00, the latter appearing an insurmountable obstacle for now. Support is at USD 1805.00 and then USD 1780.00 an ounce. Failure of the latter sets in motion a much deeper correction, while I would need to see a couple of daily closes above USD 1900.00 to get excited about the upside. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Oil moves higher, gold range-trades - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Investing In Gold? XAUUSD - Can Gold Price Reach $1700!? | FxPro

Investing In Gold? XAUUSD - Can Gold Price Reach $1700!? | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 21.06.2022 11:45
Despite attempts at rebounding equity markets, moderate pressure on gold has persisted for the third consecutive trading session. This pressure is directly linked to rising long-term bond yields on US debt and several other developed countries. Bonds and gold work like communicating vessels: rising real long-term yields draw capital to the debt markets away from gold. Over the last two years, the inverse correlation between gold and US 10-year Treasury yields has been very strong: gold prices peaked in August 2020, while yields rose from 0.5%. Last week, when the 10-year Treasury yield was rising temporarily to 3.5%, it tested the $1800 area. However, there are several essential points to understand in this correlation. First, the 10-year Treasury yields touched 11-year highs last week, while gold has retreated only to the levels last seen at the start of the year. In other words, an active capital outflow from gold only occurs when yields decline sharply, whereas the long-term trend favours the shiny metal. This correlation can easily be explained by inflation, which eats into the purchasing power of money in the long term. Secondly, 10-year yields are not so much influenced by short-term Fed interest rates as economic growth forecasts. Increased chances of a recession in the foreseeable future have dampened long-term yields. In addition, there are signs that the upward movement in UST yields was too fast, setting up a corrective pullback in the near term. In our opinion, the potential danger for gold is a further tightening of the Fed’s tone, i.e. hints of new steps of a 75-point rate hike and a willingness to keep rates above inflation. But so far, we have seen a significant outperformance of inflation over key rates, and comments from FOMC members indicate a willingness to stop with a tightening in the 3.5-4.0% area, with no attempt to ride out inflation and a reversal to a rate cut as early as 2024. Such outlooks are keeping long-term bond yields in check and, at the same time fuelling interest in a strategy of buying gold during intense downturns. Locally, creeping upward bond yields are working for sellers of gold. This also has a bearish signal in the form of consolidation below the 200-day moving average. However, gold’s resilience drew attention when markets overestimated expectations of a rate hike from 50 to 75 points and multiple buying gains on dips under the 200-day moving average since December last year.
Should Drivers Worry About Fuel Prices Again? Will Crude Oil Price Go Up!?

Crude Oil prices recover, gold price stuck in range | Oanda

Craig Erlam Craig Erlam 21.06.2022 16:21
Oil risks remain tilted to the upside Oil prices are around 1% higher, continuing to recover from Friday’s sharp sell-off. The oil market remains extremely tight but it seems the rising threat of recession created a compelling argument for it to correct lower last week. There’s no doubt that a recession could help rebalance the market and pull prices lower but for many, that is not the base case. So any corrections are still likely to quickly see a flurry of buyers, as we’re now seeing. In the same way that Chinese lockdowns slowed rallies in recent months, the increasing threat of recession could do similar over the summer. That said, the risks remain tilted to the upside as supply simply can’t keep up with demand. Gold could be rangebound for a while We’re still seeing plenty of indecision and choppiness in gold. It struggled to build on the momentum of last week’s surge and is now on course for a third day in the red. That’s not a particularly bearish signal, more a reflection of how the week has started in the markets. The absence of the US makes it hard to read too much into the moves until now. The key level to the downside remains USD 1,800, with USD 1,870 the big test above. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the yellow metal fluctuate between these two levels for a while longer yet.   For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Oil prices recover, gold stuck in range - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Analysis of Gold for June 30,.2022 - Key decision pivot on the test at $1.814  | InstaForex

Price of Gold (XAU/USD) to exit its range soon?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.06.2022 22:55
Relevance up to 18:00 2022-06-22 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. The price of gold continues to move sideways in the short term. It was trading at 1,835 at the time of writing. XAU/USD is trapped in a narrow range, so we'll have to wait for a valid breakout from this pattern before taking action. Fundamentally, the Canadian retail sales data brought some action on the yellow metal today. The Retail Sales indicator reported a 0.9% growth versus 0.8% expected, while the Core Retail Sales surged by 1.3% compared to 0.5% forecasts. Also, the US Existing Home Sales came in at 5.41M above 5.40M expected. Tomorrow, the fundamentals could be decisive. The UK and Canadian inflation figures could force the XAU/USD to escape from the current pattern. XAU/USD Moves Sideways!     You knew from my previous analysis that XAU/USD dropped within a down channel. In the short term, it's trapped between 1,844 and 1,832. As you can see on the H1 chart, the rate registered only a false breakout through the downtrend line and above the weekly pivot point of 1,841 signaling strong downside pressure. Now, it challenges the uptrend line which stands as a dynamic support. Escaping from the current range could bring new trading signals. XAU/USD Forecast! Gold could resume its sell-off if it stays under the flag's resistance and if it makes a new lower low, if it drops and closes below 1,830. Staying above the uptrend line and making a valid breakout above the 1,844 could bring new long opportunities.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/281125
Gold Price Has Been Affected By Fears Of Recession And Hawkish Rhetoric Of Fed (Federal Reserve)

Gold fights heroically against adverse conditions

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.06.2022 15:55
Relevance up to 12:00 2022-06-27 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Respect! This word can express admiration for gold, which, in extremely unfavorable conditions for itself, shows amazing resilience. When the Fed decides to tighten monetary policy at the most aggressive pace in 28 years, the US Treasury market is off to its worst start since the 1970s, and the US dollar is comfortably at 20-year highs, the precious metal should be worth much less. Nevertheless, the "bulls" find the strength to resist the headwind. Over the past 12 months, the USD index has risen by almost 14% due to strong demand for safe-haven assets, the strength of the US economy, and the intention of the Fed to aggressively tighten monetary policy. According to the latest FOMC forecasts, the federal funds rate will rise to 3.4% by the end of 2022. Reuters experts expect to see it at around 3.5%. This implies a 75 bps increase in borrowing costs at least at one of the meetings of the Committee before the end of the current year. Experts polled by Reuters believe that a big step will be taken as early as July. If we add to the high speed of monetary restriction the transition of US stock indices into bearish territory and the rapid rally in 10-year Treasury yields towards 3.5%, it becomes clear why the dollar feels like a king in Forex. Gold is quoted in US currency, the growth of the latter, as a rule, leads to a fall in its value. Forex currency dynamics     Rumors are growing in the market that the US dollar is being used by investors as a tool for hedging stagflationary risks. It is bought in the absence of other alternatives. Only the avoidance of a recession by the world economy and the cessation of the armed conflict in Ukraine can undermine the power of the USD index. In my opinion, there is still an alternative to the US dollar as a means of insuring the risks of a combination of slow economic growth and high inflation. And it's gold. That is why the precious metal jumped after the release of data on US consumer prices for May. And it remains stable against the background of zero growth in US GDP in the second quarter expected by the leading indicator from the Atlanta Fed. Stagflation is a true friend not only to the dollar, but also to XAUUSD. Meanwhile, a significant event took place on the physical gold market: for the first time since February, Switzerland bought precious metals from Russia in the amount of 3 tons for processing. Dynamics of purchases of Russian gold by Switzerland     If we draw analogies with oil, then the news could be viewed as a pullback in the process of ousting Russia from the market. But the role of the Russian Federation in the gold market is negligible compared to oil. Thus, 3 tons purchased by Switzerland is only 2% of the total precious metal imports. Gold, Daily chart     Technically, the Broadening Wedge pattern continues to materialize on the gold daily chart. Falling below the lower limit of the fair value range of $1825–1861 per ounce is a reason for selling.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/314205
Podcast: Regime shift in volatility. EU NatGas woes mount

Commodities: Crude Oil Price Rallies, Gold Price (XAUUSD) Steady | Oanda

Ed Moya Ed Moya 28.06.2022 16:26
Oil rises as China eases Covid rules Crude prices rallied after China reduced the quarantine time for inbound visitors and as Beijing and Shanghai declared zero COVID cases for the first time in months. ​ China is showing they realize they can’t keep their strict COVID controls. Earlier, Chinese authorities triggered some alarm after noting that the zero-COVID policy could be in place for the next five years. ​ The crude demand outlook is getting a major boost after China cut the mandatory isolation time in half to seven days. ​ The easing of China’s quarantine times could support the idea that Beijing might be getting closer to pivoting away from its zero-COVID policy, but that shift probably can’t happen till closer to the end of the year. Earlier oil edged higher over expectations Libya would not be able reliably export crude as protests spread and as risk appetite returned to Wall Street. The supply side of the oil equation should remain supportive for prices even if OPEC+ sees the Saudis deliver a little more crude to help cover the shortfall from Nigeria and Angola. ​ President Biden’s July trip to Saudi Arabia is mostly for political theater and won’t really lead to a meaningful increase beyond the planned OPEC+ boost of 648K b/d of supply in July and August. ​Gold Gold is struggling for direction today as risk appetite returns to Wall Street as global bond yields rise. ​ Fixed income has been under pressure after ECB’s Lagarde affirmed they are poised to raise rates by 25 bps in July while they can kick off their new bond-purchasing operation. The G7 actions against Russia aren’t hard hitting as they won’t see involvement from China. Gold seems like it will struggle until the peak inflation question is answered. If Treasury yields can retest the earlier highs seen this month, gold might be vulnerable to one last test sub-USD 1800 before the bullish bets return. ​ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Oil rallies, gold steady - MarketPulseMarketPulse