price movements

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of Daily Price Movement of S&P 500 Index, Monday May 29, 2023   With the price movement in the channel that dips upwards and the two Moving Averages which are still in Golden Cross condition on the daily chart, we can see that Buyers are still dominating the S&P 500 index so that in the next few days #SPX has the potential to appreciate an upward rally up to penetrate above the level of 4216.17 and if this level is successfully broken above then the SPX still has the potential to go to the upper line of the bullish channel and/or the level of 4324.96 but please also pay attention if there is a downward correction which is indicated by the appearance of deviations between price movements and the MACD indicator because if a correction occurs If it breaks below the level of 4070.35 then all scenarios of a rally up above that have been described previously will become invalid.        

Even though The Lonnie's condition on the daily chart looks to be in a Ranging Sideways condition and is moving downwards on the daily chart, however by the appearance of hidden deviations between the osMA indicator and the USD/CAD pair's price movements gives a hint that in the next few days USD/CAD has the potential to rise above to test the 1.3508 level and as long as the upward correction does not exceed the 1.3584 level, USD/CAD will fall back down to test the 1.3333 and 1.3264 levels.    

GBP/USD: Yesterday, the British pound tried to fall below the MACD line on the daily chart but was pushed back up towards the resistance level at 1.2443. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is moving up along with the price but is providing noticeable resistance to this movement.     A consolidation above 1.2443 with the oscillator transitioning into positive territory can potentially lead the price to the target level of 1.2583. At the moment, a new level has formed at yesterday's low of 1.2367 (coinciding with the April 21 low, where there was also a sharp rebound). Falling below this level will open up the target of 1.2273. The bearish scenario persists     On the four-hour chart, the price has bounced off the support of the MACD indicator line. Currently, the price is consolidating near the level of 1.2443.   The Marlin oscillator is in the downtrend area. Here, the earliest bearish signal is also the support level at 1.2367, reinforced by the MACD line. We await further developments.          

In the wake of the recent Federal Reserve (Fed) decision and its implications for the financial markets, we reached out to experts, analysts, and economists from HF markets to gain their insights on the current situation. Our focus revolves around two key areas: the Fed's decision and its impact on the gold market. With these topics in mind, we explore the potential outlook for gold prices in the coming weeks and discuss the market's response to the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) decision.   Gold Market Analysis When considering the trajectory of gold prices in the near future, experts express skepticism regarding the likelihood of reaching a new all-time high for XAU. While certain central banks, including Turkey, China, and India (which added 2 tonnes to its reserves in May), have increased their gold purchases to diversify their reserves away from the US dollar, investors, speculators, and hedge funds focus on other factors. Notably, gold is currently trading at a premium compared to its valuation against the US 10-year real interest rate. Recent price movements indicate a potential further decline, with a possible target range of $1860 or even lower to $1785. FXMAG.COM: Could you give as your point of view about how the gold prices would behave in next weeks? Is there a chance that there will be new ATH? Marco Turatti – HFM Market Analyst: It seems unlikely that we will see a new all-time high for XAU soon. Its price has so far been supported by increased purchases by certain central banks, such as Turkey, China and others (India added 2 tonnes to its reserves in May). The aim is to differentiate its reserves from the USD.  But investors, speculators and hedge funds look at other fundamentals and gold is very expensive compared to where it should trade against, for example, the US 10-year real interest rate. Just today it broke $1940, and could continue to the $1860 zone, if not lower to $1785.    Fed's Decision and Market Reaction Regarding the FOMC decision, experts highlight the surprise factor. Many anticipated that the Fed would approach the peak and initiate rate cuts in the coming months. However, the Fed's stance indicates that the official rate could reach 5.75% in 2023, with Chairman Jerome Powell stating that no cuts are expected for approximately two years. This stands in contrast to the Dot Plot projections. The Fed also expressed optimism regarding the new growth and job outlook.     FXMAG.COM: Could you please comment on the FOMC decision? Marco Turatti – HFM Market Analyst: The Fed really surprised: a lot of people thought we were close to the peak and ready to cut rates this year, but this is not the case. The official rate will probably reach 5.75% in 2023 and Jerome Powell says there will be no cuts for about 2 years (which is different from what the Dot Plot says).  They were also quite optimistic about the new growth/jobs outlook. The market didn't really go anywhere: yes, there was a lot of up and down movement in both indices and the USD, but at the end the day it ended with the US500 flat and the USDIndex having recovered 103.  Now there will be time in the coming hours to better process the central bank's message. Today (15/06) we are seeing declines in the stock market futures and this makes sense for equities (also given the emphasis on labour market monitoring, the Fed wants it weaker).  One direct and clear reaction we are noticing, however, has obviously been the rise in rates along the whole curve, which is weighing on gold.

First and foremost, it is essential to acknowledge that predicting the future price movements of any market, including Bitcoin, comes with inherent challenges. The complexity of financial markets and the multitude of factors that influence them can make forecasting akin to predicting the weather – as we venture further into the future, the uncertainties increase, and accuracy becomes more elusive. That being said, the recent performance of BTC indicates a clear resistance level at 32,000, with signs of decreased flows observed among various market participants. As we look towards the medium to long term, it is prudent to consider critical price levels at around 27,900 (-3.9%), 25,500 (-12.2%), and 21,500 (-25%). These levels are likely to witness intense battles between holders and sellers, with potential shifts in sentiment impacting price movements. A crucial threshold to watch closely is 27.9k; a breach of this level could signal a break in this year's bullish channel, which, as of now, remains intact. However, it is vital to maintain perspective, even in the worst-case scenario, and currently, we are not contemplating anything below the last level of 21,500.   FXMAG: How do you think the price of Bitcoin will fall in the second half of 2023? First of all, readers should understand that forecasting the markets is in some ways similar to forecasting the weather: the further you go in time, the more unforeseen factors you have to take into account and the more difficult it is to have a truly professional estimate. That said, BTC has found a ceiling at 32k and it seems that various market makers are seeing their flows decrease lately. The medium to long term levels to take into account are around 27,900 (-3.9%), 25,500 (-12.2%) and 21,500 (-25%). Each of them will see a struggle between Holders and Sellers, while a break of the former (27.9k) would effectively sanction the break of this year's bullish channel - still intact at the moment. Even in the worst-case scenario, which is still a long way from happening, we are not considering anything below the last level for now.  

Early in the European session, gold is trading around 1,936.52, below the high reached at 1,938.13, and below 4/8 Murray. Yesterday, the US consumer confidence data showed a worsening of sentiment. This survey displayed concerns among consumers about the prices of groceries and gasoline in particular. This negative data for the US dollar affected Treasury yields which caused a strong rally in gold, breaking the 200 EMA located at 1,925.     According to the 4-hour chart, we can see that gold is trading within an uptrend channel. It is expected to continue moving there until it reaches the daily resistance zone located at 1,943. According to the 4-hour chart, we can see that the Eagle indicator reached the 95-point area which signals an imminent technical correction. It is likely to happen in the next few hours if XAU/USD falls below 4/8 Murray. The metal could reach the 200 EMA located at 1,925 and could even drop as low as 3/8 Murray at 1,921.   Given that the trend remains bullish, we could expect a rally in the next few hours and gold could continue its rise. In case of a break above 1,945, gold could reach 5/8 Murray located at 1,953. This level could serve as a strong rejection. Up to that level, the instrument is considered overbought which could also be seen as a clear signal to sell. On the other hand, if gold falls below 1,937 (4/8 Murray), we could see a clear signal to sell which will give us an opportunity to take profits around the bottom of the uptrend channel located at 1,917. The daily pivot point is located at 1,930.   If gold trades around this price level of 1,930, we could expect an accumulation or consolidation in the next few hours. Below 1,930, we could see a clear signal to sell. Conversely, above this level, a technical bounce could be triggered. Our trading plan for the next few hours is to sell gold below 1,937. In case there is a pullback around 1,943, we could sell with the target at 1,920. The Eagle indicator is in an overbought zone which supports our bearish strategy.  

COT reports on the British pound show that the sentiment of commercial traders has been changing quite frequently in recent months. The red and green lines, representing the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, often intersect and, in most cases, are not far from the zero mark. According to the latest report on the British pound, the non-commercial group closed 10,000 buy contracts and 4,200 short ones. As a result, the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by 5,800 contracts in a week. Since bulls currently don't have the advantage, we believe that the pound will not be able to sustain the upward movement for long . The fundamental backdrop still does not provide a basis for long-term purchases on the pound.   The non-commercial group currently has a total of 58,800 buy contracts and 44,700 sell contracts. Since the COT reports cannot make an accurate forecast of the market's behavior right now, and the fundamentals are practically the same for both currencies, we can only assess the technical picture and economic reports. The technical analysis suggests that we can expect a strong decline, and the economic reports have also been significantly stronger in the United States for quite some time now.   On the 1H chart, GBP/USD is making every effort to correct lower, but the uptrend remains intact. We believe that the British pound doesn't have any good reason to strengthen in the long-term. Therefore, at the very least, we expect the pair to return to the level of 1.2513. However, there are currently no sell signals, so the uptrend is still intact. On Tuesday, there are few reasons for the pair to show volatile movements. We may see a flat phase, a downtrend, or an uptrend (intraday), so we need to purely rely on technical analysis. We expect the pound to consolidate below the trendline, and in that case, we can consider selling while aiming for the Senkou Span B line. A n upward movement is theoretically possible today, but we see no reason for it, so you shouldn't consider buying at the moment. As of January 2, we highlight the following important levels: 1.2215, 1.2269, 1.2349, 1.2429-1.2445, 1.2513, 1.2605-1.2620, 1.2726, 1.2786, 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987. The Senkou Span B line (1.2646) and the Kijun-sen (1.2753) lines can also be sources of signals. Don't forget to set a breakeven Stop Loss to breakeven if the price has moved in the intended direction by 20 pips. The Ichimoku indicator lines may move during the day, so this should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Today, the UK and the US will release their second estimates of business activity indices in the manufacturing sector for December. These are not significant reports so it is unlikely for traders to react to them. Description of the chart: Support and resistance levels are thick red lines near which the trend may end. They do not provide trading signals; The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, plotted to the 1H timeframe from the 4H one. They provide trading signals; Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price bounced earlier. They provide trading signals; Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns; Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the net position size for each category of traders; Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the net position size for the Non-commercial group.