price action

USD/CAD has been trading downside and I found the breakout of the support cluster at the price of 1.3590, which is good sign for the further downside movement.   Due to the breakout of the support cluster and the increasing in the downside movement, I see potential for the further lower prices towards downside references.   Downside objectives are set at 1.3540 and 1.3490 MACD is showing increasing of the downside momentum, which is good sign for the further lower prices.... Key resistance is set at the price of 1.3650  

GBP/USD may start moving upward this week, starting from the level of 1.2344 (closing of the last weekly candle) to 1.2499, which is a historical resistance level (blue dashed line). Upon reaching this price, the pair will climb further to 1.2678, which is an upper fractal (red dashed line).   Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis - upward Fibonacci levels - upward Volumes - upward Candlestick analysis - upward Trend analysis - downward Bollinger bands - upward Monthly chart - upward       All these point to an upward movement in GBP/USD. Conclusion: Most likely, the pair will have a bullish trend, with no first lower shadow on the weekly white candle (Monday - upward) and a second upper shadow (Friday - downward).   So during the week, pound will rise from 1.2344 (closing of the last weekly candle) to the historical resistance level at 1.2499 (blue dashed line), and then head to the upper fractal at 1.2678 (red dashed line).   Alternatively, the quote could go up from 1.2344 (closing of last week's candle) to the historical resistance level at 1.2499 (blue dashed line), and then turn around and fall down to the 38.2% retracement level at 1.2342 (red dashed line).  

NZDJPY resistance at 8555/75. Shorts need stops above 8590.  Targets: 8520, 8480.      CADJPY continues higher as expected but I have not managed to get us in to a long. I should have had us buying on a break above 102.90 so I will use this as a support today. Longs at 102.90/70, stop below 102.50.          EURJPY we unfortunately missed buying at first support at 149.75-65 by only 3 pips.  GBPCAD stuck in a 2 week range but longs at support at 167.60/40 worked last week on the bounce to my target of 168.55. Try longs again at support at 167.60/40 - stop below 167.10.   Targets: 168.20, 168.55, 168.80.Resistance at 1.6880/1.6900. Shorts need stops above 1.6920. Targets: 1.6845, 1.6820.    EURUSD collapsed as predicted on Sunday last week & finally hit my target & Fibonacci support at Fibonacci 1.0730/20, although we over ran to 1.0700. On Friday as predicted we did recover a little to my first target of target  1.0750/60 with a high for the day exactly here.  No buy signal yet but a break above 1.0750/60 tests strong resistance at 1.0790/1.0810. I would try a short here with stop above 1.0830. Longs at 1.0730/10 could be risky but if you try, stop below 1.0695.  A break below 1.0695 this week should be a sell signal & can target 1.0630, then 1.0600, perhaps as far as 1.0570.       GBPUSD bounced from just above good support at 1.2290/80 in severely oversold conditions which was as expected. The pair beat minor resistance at 1.2360/70 but a short position at 1.2390/1.2400 worked perfectly with a high for the day exactly here & a nice tumble to my targets of 1.2340 & 1.2320. A low for the day exactly here in fact.  Could hardly have been more accurate on the levels for GBPUSD last week. Again shorts at 1.2390/1.2400 should stop loss above 1.2420. Targets: 1.2340 & 1.2320. I am not going to suggest a long as I think there is a good chance we will continue lower this week. Watch for a break below the 100 day moving average at 1.2290/80 to trigger further losses despite severely oversold conditions.

EUR/USD On Tuesday, the euro went through a correction, defined by the convergence with the Marlin oscillator. The price once again tested the target level of 1.0738 and the embedded line of the descending channel. The signal line of the oscillator has entered its own descending channel.     According to the main scenario, the price can now consolidate below the support level of 1.0692 and continue moving towards 1.0620, which is the lower embedded line of the price channel. The alternative scenario is simple - after settling above 1.0738, a test of the target resistance at 1.0804 is possible. This would extend the correction.     On the four-hour chart, the price has returned below the MACD indicator line after a false breakout above it. The Marlin oscillator has moved into the negative territory after briefly staying in the positive area. The trend is bearish.  

GBP/USD Yesterday, the British pound grew (by 0.47% compared to a 0.20% decline in the dollar index) and its upper shadow managed to reach the target level of 1.2443. As the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has already approached the boundary of the growth area, it may start to reverse downwards in the direction of the main trend.   If the reversal occurs and the price establishes itself below the MACD line (1.2400), the first target will be 1.2273 (the April 3 low and the high of February 14). If the price stays above 1.2443, it can rise towards 1.2583. However, the pound may not reach this level, and a reversal could occur from any intermediate resistance.       On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled above the balance and MACD indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator has shown slight growth in the growth area but is now showing initial signs of a downward reversal.   Since the MACD line is located below the 1.2400 level, overcoming the support level (1.2365) will serve as the final condition for the price to reverse into a medium-term decline.  

GBP/USD: Yesterday, the British pound tried to fall below the MACD line on the daily chart but was pushed back up towards the resistance level at 1.2443. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is moving up along with the price but is providing noticeable resistance to this movement.     A consolidation above 1.2443 with the oscillator transitioning into positive territory can potentially lead the price to the target level of 1.2583. At the moment, a new level has formed at yesterday's low of 1.2367 (coinciding with the April 21 low, where there was also a sharp rebound). Falling below this level will open up the target of 1.2273. The bearish scenario persists     On the four-hour chart, the price has bounced off the support of the MACD indicator line. Currently, the price is consolidating near the level of 1.2443.   The Marlin oscillator is in the downtrend area. Here, the earliest bearish signal is also the support level at 1.2367, reinforced by the MACD line. We await further developments.          

USD/JPY: On Monday, the USD/JPY pair tested the resistance level at 140.35 but was pushed down from it, though not by much. This morning, the price is trying to rise, but the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is decreasing, which could eventually lead the price back to 138.57.     If the dollar manages to find the strength to rise, after surpassing 140.35, the next target will be 142.28, the nearest line of the global price channel. On the four-hour chart, we can see that the target level of 140.35 was reinforced by the MACD line, which resulted in a local price reversal from it.     If the dollar manages to find the strength to rise, after surpassing 140.35, the next target will be 142.28, the nearest line of the global price channel. On the four-hour chart, we can see that the target level of 140.35 was reinforced by the MACD line, which resulted in a local price reversal from it.  

Rates Spark: Inflation in focus before central bank meetings US inflation will affect the odds of a June Fed hike but should not move longer-dated rates much. A week heavy in supply promises more volatility but we expect curve flattening to persist into the Fed and ECB meetings.   Rolling the inflation dice once again A higher than expected US core inflation print is the last event that could boost the odds of a 25bp hike at tomorrow’s Fed meeting. Currently, these stand at just under 30%, reflecting the importance of, and uncertainty associated with, today’s CPI release. Currently, consensus stands at 0.4% MoM for the core reading, more than twice the rate needed for inflation to go back to the Fed’s 2% annual inflation target. Still, the less than 50% probability assigned by the curve to a 25bp June hike suggests markets collectively think that the Fed will be happy enough with 0.4% monthly core inflation to refrain from hiking.   One reason, we think, is the over-reliance on economic consensus to assess market moves. The second reason is that, even without a June hike, the Fed has dropped some heavy hints that it could hike in July regardless of its decision in June. For rates markets, this means that even if the Fed ‘skips’ the June meeting, odds of a 25bp hike by July, currently standing at around 80%, may not fall much.   The upshot for traded interest rates, such as swaps and US Treasury yields, is that the market reassessing June hike odds lower will not necessarily mean a drop in longer-dated rates. In fact, investors may well draw the logical conclusion that 0.4% core inflation would reinforce the case for a higher Fed dot plot and hawkish tone, regardless of what consensus is for today’s core inflation print.   What is sure is that price action today, and later this week into the Fed and European Central Bank meetings, is set to be choppy. In addition to the US CPI print, there is a heavy supply slate from sovereign issuers on both sides of the Atlantic. This tends to pressure yields higher into the supply and lower afterwards. In addition to, justified in our view, expectations of hawkish ECB and Fed tones, this skews yields higher. Whether this impacts the front-end or long-end the most depends on appetite to absorb this supply but the current market regime suggests that short-dated rates, ie the section most sensitive to central bank policy rates, is in the lead. This means a tendency to flatten when rates rise.     Curve flattening extends on the back of more hawkish central bank reaction functions   Today's events and market view A strong raft of UK employment data is likely to keep upward pressure on sterling front-end rates today although these have already priced more than 100bp of additional hikes as of yesterday's close. Faster wage and employment growth will probably be discussed by new MPC member Megan Greene today. Other Bank of England testimonies include that of governor Andrew Bailey. Today’s Eurozone inflation numbers are final reads and therefore less likely to surprise at the headline level. It will still be interesting to parse through the inflation components for signs of narrowing or broadening inflation pressure. Germany’s Zew survey will be an opportunity to get a (very) early read on June sentiment indicators. Consensus is for a decline as, we think, actually economic data and China’s reopening, are not living up to expectations. Italy is back on primary markets with auctions in the 3Y/7Y/30Y sectors, adding to auctions from the UK (10Y), Germany (5Y), and Finland (10Y/13Y). Later in the day, the US Treasury will auction 30Y T-bonds. Germany also mandated banks for the launch of a 30Y green bond which should take place today. The US release calendar kicks off early with the national federation of independent business’ optimism indicator. The main event, however, with be the publication of the May CPI report. Consensus is for the monthly core inflation print to remain at an elevated 0.4% but most seem to think this will be enough for the Fed to refrain from hiking at this week’s meeting.

GBP: Cracks starting to show? UK headlines were grabbed yesterday by two-year Gilt yields blasting through 5% and raining more misery on those UK mortgage holders needing to refinance. The UK 2-10 year Gilt curve is now the most inverted since 2000. It's true that a heavily inverted Gilt curve makes it more expensive for foreigners to hedge UK Gilt holdings – i.e. a sterling positive – but this heavily inverted curve will be heaping a lot of pressure on the UK economy. We are probably reading too much into one day's price action, but it could be noticeable that sterling did not follow Gilt yields higher yesterday. Expect EUR/GBP to consolidate into tomorrow's big release of May UK CPI. And again we would see current levels in EUR/GBP as a good area to increase FX hedge ratios on GBP receivables.

NOK: Confusing post-hike price action Norges Bank opted for a 50bp hike yesterday, bringing the policy rate to 3.75%. If that was not enough of a hawkish surprise, the Bank raised its forecasted peak rate to 4.25% (in the fourth quarter of this year). As discussed in this note, supporting the weak krone remains the primary aim, although the Bank’s rate-setting model seemed to suggest that higher wages and inflation played a much bigger role in the rate path’s upward revision. The post-meeting EUR/NOK price action is a reminder of how domestic factors and the role of Norges Bank in the currency market remain secondary to external factors for such a risk-sensitive currency like NOK: the pair is back above pre-meeting levels this morning (11.75) amid a large risk-off repricing. Next week’s FX purchase announcement is also a key risk event for NOK. We are of the view that the krone is now in a stronger position thanks to the aggressively hawkish stance of Norges Bank. We expect, however, to see NOK’s gains against the euro materialise later in the year as sentiment stabilises. For now, we see NOK outperform its closest peer SEK on the back of policy differential and smaller domestic tail risks.

Price action in energy markets over the past month has been interesting. European natural gas has seen increased volatility, suggesting that the market is still nervous about supply risks, whilst the oil market is stuck in a range despite deeper Saudi supply cuts.   Natural gas disruptions leave the market nervous The European gas market has witnessed plenty of volatility over the last month. TTF rallied from less than €23/MWh in early June to a peak of almost €50/MWh in mid-June, only to fall back to the €30-35/MWh range. The catalyst for this move has been disruptions to Norwegian gas flows due to outages, which led to a significant short-covering rally in the market. Firstly, this shows that market participants are still nervous about potential supply disruptions in the market, and secondly, there was a large segment of the market which was caught short and needed to cover. The fall in Norwegian pipeline flows since mid-May has been significant because of outages. In April, flows out of Norway averaged almost 313mcm/d (9.38 bcm over the month), whilst in June these fell to almost 232mcm/d (6.96 bcm over the month). While most of this gas infrastructure maintenance was planned, some of it has run longer than planned. However, despite the fall in supply from Norway, storage in the EU is still at very comfortable levels and continues to trend higher. EU storage finished June being 77% full, well above the five-year average of 62% as well as the 58% seen at the same stage last year. The lack of demand response to the broader weakness in gas prices has meant that storage continues to fill up at a good pace. In fact, our numbers suggest that the EU only needs to see around 10% demand destruction relative to the five-year average. However, in May it appears as though the EU saw demand around 18% below average. The lack of demand response does raise an important question: how much of the demand destruction since the war is permanent? It will take a while to get a clearer answer on this. In addition, whilst the market has been well within the coal-to-gas switching range, we have not seen a strong demand response for gas from the power sector. This is very likely due to the fact that while it makes more sense to burn gas than coal, spark spreads are still in negative territory. We still expect that the EU will hit full storage before the start of the next heating season – as early as September and possibly even a bit earlier if demand continues to remain as weak as it is. This suggests that we should see renewed pressure on European natural gas prices as we move through the third quarter. Prices will need to trade lower to ensure that liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes are redirected elsewhere. Longer term, if we assume a normal 2023/24 winter, storage drawdowns will be stronger through the heating season relative to last year, and we should exit the 2023/24 winter with storage closer to the five-year average. These stronger draws should provide some upside to prices over the winter months. There are upside risks to our view for weaker prices in the short term. This includes prolonged Norwegian outages, lower LNG send-outs – something we have started to see more of recently – and finally, the ever-present risk of disruption to remaining Russian pipeline flows to the EU.

EUR: Going along for the ride Yesterday's price action was a little strange. EUR/USD opened bid in Europe, but spent the rest of the session edging lower even though the US NFIB pricing intentions survey did dip as we expected. EUR/USD opens Europe bid again today and as above, the US CPI print is going to be the main story. This may be one of the next chances that EUR/USD has of breaking above 1.1100 this month. One side issue here. Tomorrow sees eurozone finance ministers meet in the Eurogroup format. On the agenda is fiscal policy for 2024, which given the inflation problem, might be more minded to bring forward fiscal consolidation and a return of the Stability and Growth Pact budget constraints. Tighter fiscal policy could see ECB tightening expectations priced lower and perhaps see the euro underperform a little - albeit in a potentially soft dollar environment.   Also, today look out for a speech from ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane at 15:45 CET. Let's see whether he supports market pricing of two more 25bp ECB hikes later this year.  We favour a little more EUR/USD upside today - but that's very much dependent on the US CPI data.

FX Daily: Dollar bears being asked for patience Quiet summer markets are seeing dollar pairs consolidate in new, slightly lower ranges. It will be another quiet session today ahead of a big week for G3 central bank meetings. Dollar bears may find some reassurance from emerging markets, where the PBoC is trying to limit USD/CNY gains and the South African rand is holding up despite the lack of a rate hike.   USD: Dollar reconnects with short-term rate differentials As my colleague Francesco Pesole has been writing this week, the dollar has made a modest comeback as both US yields adjust higher and short-term rate spreads stay in the dollar's favour. In fact, one could argue that the dollar should even be a little higher given that two-year US yields have retraced about 50% of their drop in the first half of July and the DXY has only retraced one-third of its losses. Price action over the past week probably shows that a switch to the disinflation trade will not be easy and will require a constant drip feed of supporting evidence – be it softer price or weaker activity data. Yesterday's drop in US initial claims clearly did not help here. Casting around the world in quiet FX markets we see the People's Bank of China (PBoC) continuing to fight a weaker renminbi by printing lower USD/CNY fixings than model-based estimates suggest. Despite credible calls for a lower renminbi to support growth and battle deflation, it seems Chinese policymakers prefer to keep renminbi losses contained and prevent a 'sell China' mentality building. The PBoC's battle against a stronger USD/CNY is a slight dollar negative in quiet summer markets – especially should it extend to outright dollar sales. Today's session should be a quiet one as the market prepares for US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan (BoJ) meetings next week. Regarding the BoJ, expectations of any Yield Curve Control policy tweak seem very low (perhaps too low) given that the 30-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield is drifting lower and the forward market prices 10-year JGB yields at 50bp in three months and at only 55bp in six months. These 10-year yields should be priced a lot higher were the market expecting a policy change. USD/JPY may well drift to the 141.15/142.00 area before next Friday's BoJ meeting.

FX Daily: Dollar bears being asked for patience Quiet summer markets are seeing dollar pairs consolidate in new, slightly lower ranges. It will be another quiet session today ahead of a big week for G3 central bank meetings. Dollar bears may find some reassurance from emerging markets, where the PBoC is trying to limit USD/CNY gains and the South African rand is holding up despite the lack of a rate hike.   USD: Dollar reconnects with short-term rate differentials As my colleague Francesco Pesole has been writing this week, the dollar has made a modest comeback as both US yields adjust higher and short-term rate spreads stay in the dollar's favour. In fact, one could argue that the dollar should even be a little higher given that two-year US yields have retraced about 50% of their drop in the first half of July and the DXY has only retraced one-third of its losses. Price action over the past week probably shows that a switch to the disinflation trade will not be easy and will require a constant drip feed of supporting evidence – be it softer price or weaker activity data. Yesterday's drop in US initial claims clearly did not help here. Casting around the world in quiet FX markets we see the People's Bank of China (PBoC) continuing to fight a weaker renminbi by printing lower USD/CNY fixings than model-based estimates suggest. Despite credible calls for a lower renminbi to support growth and battle deflation, it seems Chinese policymakers prefer to keep renminbi losses contained and prevent a 'sell China' mentality building. The PBoC's battle against a stronger USD/CNY is a slight dollar negative in quiet summer markets – especially should it extend to outright dollar sales. Today's session should be a quiet one as the market prepares for US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan (BoJ) meetings next week. Regarding the BoJ, expectations of any Yield Curve Control policy tweak seem very low (perhaps too low) given that the 30-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield is drifting lower and the forward market prices 10-year JGB yields at 50bp in three months and at only 55bp in six months. These 10-year yields should be priced a lot higher were the market expecting a policy change. USD/JPY may well drift to the 141.15/142.00 area before next Friday's BoJ meeting.

Crypto Bitcoin’s consolidating trading has seen price action reside closer to the lower boundaries as volatility disappears. Short-term support from the $29,500 level broke this early this morning and if bearish momentum builds, key support could target the $27,500 region.  The crypto news flow has been uninspiring, with many traders focusing on OPENAI’s Sam Altman’s Worldcoin crypto project. It will take a fresh catalyst to excite Bitcoin traders and right now it seems the price action is destined for a broadening formation, potentially targeting the $27,500 and $31,500 zone.  

Europe set for lower open after strong US session, China trade disappoints   By Michael Hewson (Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK)   It was a rather subdued start to the trading week in Europe yesterday with little in the way of positive drivers although we managed to hold on most of the rebound that we saw on Friday in the wake of the July jobs report out of the US. US markets on the other hand enjoyed a much more robust start to the week, ending a 4-day decline and reversing the losses of the previous two sessions, as bargain hunters returned.   The focus this week is on Thursday's inflation numbers from the US, which could show that prices edged up in July, however it is the numbers out of China tomorrow which might be more instructive in respect of longer-term trends for prices, if headline CPI follows the PPI numbers into deflation.       Earlier this morning the latest China trade numbers for July continued to point to weak economic activity and subdued domestic demand. The last 2 months of Q2 saw sharp declines in exports, with a -12.4% fall in June. There was little let-up in this morning's July numbers with a bigger than expected decline of -14.5%, the worst performance since February 2020, with global demand remaining weak. Imports have been little better, with negative numbers every month this year, and July has been no different with a decline of -12.4%, an even worse performance from June's -6.8%, with all sectors of the economy showing weakness. With numbers this poor it surely can't be too long before Chinese policymakers take further steps to support their economy with further easing measures, however, there appears to be some reluctance to do so at any scale for the moment, due to concerns over capital outflows.     Today's European market open was set to be a modestly positive one, until the release of the China trade numbers, however we now look set for a slightly lower open, with the only data of note the final German CPI numbers for July which are set to show that headline inflation slowed modestly to 6.5% from 6.8% in June.   It's also set to be another important week for the pound ahead of Q2 GDP numberswhich are due on Friday. Before that we got a decent insight into UK retail sales spending earlier this morning with the release of two important insights into consumer behaviour in July.   The BRC retail sales numbers for July showed that like for like sales slowed during the month, rising 1.8%, well below the 3-month average of 3.3%. Food sales performed particularly well, but at the expense of online sales of non-food items like clothes which showed a sharp slowdown.     It is clear that consumers are spending their money much more carefully and spending only when necessary, as Bank of England rate hikes continue to bite on incomes. With some consumers approaching a cliff edge as their fixed rate terms come up for expiry, they may well be saving more in order to mitigate the impact of an impending sharp rise in mortgage costs. That said in a separate survey from Barclaycard, spending on entertainment saw a big boost of 15.8% even as clothing sales declined.     Bars, pubs, and clubs saw a pickup in spending as did the entertainment sector as Taylor Swift did for July, what Beyonce did for May. The release of a big slate of summer films may also have offered a boost with the latest Indiana Jones film, along with Mission Impossible Dead Reckoning, Barbie and Oppenheimer prompting people to venture out given the wetter weather during the month.       EUR/USD – not much in the way of price action yesterday although the euro managed to hold onto most of the rally off last week's lows just above the 1.0900 area. We currently have resistance at the 1.1050 area which we need to break to have any chance of revisiting the July peaks at 1.1150.     GBP/USD – another solid day yesterday after the rebound off the 1.2620 area last week. We need to see a move back above the 1.2800 area to ensure this rally has legs. Below 1.2600 targets 1.2400. Resistance at the 1.2830 area as well as 1.3000.         EUR/GBP – struggling to rally beyond the 0.8650 area but we need to see a move below the 0.8580 area to signal a short-term top might be in and see a return to the 0.8530 area. Also have resistance at the 100-day SMA at 0.8680.     USD/JPY – failed just below the 144.00 area last week but has rebounded from the 141.50 area. While below the 144.00 area the risk is for a move towards the 140.70 area. Main resistance remains at the previous peaks at 145.00.       FTSE100 is expected to open 8 points lower at 7,546     DAX is expected to open 16 points lower at 15,936     CAC40 is expected to open unchanged at 7,319      

FX Daily: Dollar benefits from a lack of alternatives The US remains on an encouraging disinflation track, but the dollar is not turning lower. This is, in our view, due to a lack of attractive alternatives given warning growth signals in other parts of the world (such as the eurozone and China). Evidence of a US economic slowdown is needed to bring USD substantially lower.   USD: Disinflation not enough for the bears July’s US inflation numbers released yesterday were largely in line with expectations, reassuring markets that there are no setbacks in the disinflationary process for now. Core inflation inched lower from 4.8% to 4.7%, while the headline rate suffered a rebound (from 3.0% to 3.2%) due to a reduced base effect compared to previous months, which was still smaller than the consensus of 3.3%. With the exception of resilience in housing prices, price pressures clearly abated across all components. All in all, the US report offered reasons for the Fed and for risk assets to cheer, as the chance of another rate hike declined further. Equities rallied and the US yield curve re-steepened: the dollar should have dropped across the board in this scenario. However, the post-CPI picture in FX was actually more mixed. This was a testament to how currencies are not uniquely driven by US news at the moment. The Japanese yen drop was not a surprise, given abating bond and FX volatility, equity outperformance and carry-trade revamp, but FX markets seemed lightly impacted by CPI figures and the subsequent risk-on environment, as many high-beta currencies failed to hang on to gains. From a dollar point of view, we think the recent price action denotes a reluctance to rotate away from the greenback given the emergence of concerning stories in other parts of the world. This is not to say that the activity outlook in the US is particularly bright – jobless claims touched a one-month high yesterday, and the outlook remains very vulnerable to deteriorated credit dynamics – but if economic slowdown alarms are flashing yellow in Washington, they are flashing amber in Frankfurt and Beijing. Chinese real estate developer Garden reported a record net loss of up to $7.6bn during the first half of the year yesterday, at a time when China’s officials are trying to calm investors’ nerves about another potential property crisis. Back to the US, PPI and the University of Michigan inflation expectation figures out today will clarify how far the disinflation story has gone in July, but we still sense a substantial dollar decline is not on the cards for the moment, or at least until compelling evidence of slowing US activity makes the prospect of Fed cuts less remote. DXY may consolidate above 102.00 over the next few days.

EUR/USD As a result of yesterday, the euro fell slightly, jumping to the resistance level of 1.0924 with its upper shadow. The bears showed strength, but the bulls also showed persistence. Similar price spikes to the upside have been happening for three consecutive days. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator starts to turn upward.     Apparently, the price will stay in the 1.0865-1.0924 range, consolidating below the MACD line (blue moving average). We generally have a downtrend, so if the price breaches the support level at 1.0865 again, it can also aim for 1.0834.     On the four-hour chart, the price and the oscillator have made something similar to a double convergence. In the first stage, consolidating above the MACD line (1.0889) will allow the price to aim for 1.0924. Then, the price may try to overcome the MACD line on the daily chart (1.0942). But for now, the sideways movement has a bigger chance.

Technical outlook: EUR/USD has carved a fresh low at 1.0845 last week remaining just shy of initial support around 1.0830. The single currency pair has pulled back since then and is seen to be trading above 1.0880 at this point in writing. The bulls are likely to push prices towards the 1.1000-50 area before the next leg resumes lower. EUR/USD has broken its one-year trend line support as seen on the daily chart here. The probability remains for a push through the backside of the support-turned-resistance zone, which is seen around the 1.1000-50 zone before turning lower towards the 1.0500 Fibonacci target. Also, note that the entire rally between 0.9535 and 1.1275 could be retraced with prices reaching 1.0200. EUR/USD seems to have also carved a lower-degree downswing between 1.1275 and 1.0845 which could be retraced in the next few trading sessions. The Fibonacci 0.618 retracement is seen passing through 1.1150 which could be tested before the next leg resumes lower again. A push through 1.0920 will confirm that a corrective rally is underway.       Trading idea: A potential rally towards 1.1150 in the near term remains possible.  

GBP: Short term rates remain the key driver Yesterday's price action in EUR/GBP was telling. EUR/GBP briefly dipped under 0.8500 on the soft eurozone PMI releases only to surge to 0.8565 on the soft UK services PMI release. The soft UK data took a large 15bp out of pricing for the Bank of England (BoE) tightening cycle. We still think that the BoE will not deliver on the 60bp of tightening still priced by the markets and that EUR/GBP can later this year move back to the 0.87 area. The only UK data of note today is the August CBI retail sales numbers and we suspect EUR/GBP continues to trade a 0.8500-0.8550 range, while Cable is quite steady near 1.2700 too.

Bearish elements have emerged at a key inflection/resistance level of 15,415. The leader of the AI boom, Nvidia has shaped a bullish exhaustion where its initial price actions’ exuberance dissipated ex-post Q2 earnings result release. 15,135 key short-term resistance to watch on the Nasdaq 100 to maintain bearish bias.   This is a follow-up analysis of our prior reports, “Nasdaq 100 Technical: Minor countertrend rebound” and “D-day for the US stock market as Nvidia earnings loom” published on 15 August 2023 and 23 August 2023 respectively. Click here and here for a recap. The price actions of the US Nas 100 Index (a proxy for the Nasdaq 100 futures) have indeed shaped the expected minor countertrend rebound sequence from the 18 August 2023 low of 14,553 and rallied by +5.6% to print an intraday high of 15,375 during yesterday’s 24 August European opening hour. The upward spurt seen on Thursday, 24 August at the start of the Asian session has been primarily attributed to a strong upmove of +6% seen in the share price of Nvidia in the after-US hours trading session of Wednesday, 23 August right after the release of its stellar fiscal Q2 earnings result. Interestingly, the exuberance of Nvidia that has triggered an initial positive feedback loop into the benchmark US stock indices dissipated as the US session got underway yesterday. In addition, several key bearish technical elements emerged which suggests that the potential impulsive down moves of the short to medium-term bearish trend of the US Nas 100 Index has resumed.   Daily bearish Marubozu candlestick formed right a key inflection/resistance zone   Fig 1: US Nas 100 medium-term trend as of 25 Aug 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)     Fig 2: Medium-term trend of Nvidia & SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF as of 24 Aug 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) As seen in Figure 1, several bearish elements have been detected on the daily chart of the US Nas 100 Index. Firstly, its price actions have formed a firm bearish tone candlestick pattern called “Marubozu”, a long-body candle where its opening price and closing price were almost the same as its intraday high and intraday low respectively.   Secondly, the emergence of such a key bearish reversal candlestick pattern is being formed right at a key inflection zone where the 50-day moving average and the former swing low of 24 July 2023 confluence at a 15,415 resistance level adds credence to a potential future bearish movement in price actions of the Index. Thirdly, the current conditions of the daily RSI oscillator suggest that medium-term downside momentum remains intact. The price actions of Nvidia as seen in Fig 2 have also depicted similar bearish elements where it ended yesterday’s 24 August US session with a daily bearish “Marubozu” and reintegrated below a key resistance of 474.10 with a high-volume reading. The US Nas 100 slipped back below the 20-day moving average Fig 3: US Nas 100 minor short-term trend as of 25 Aug 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) The hourly chart of the US Nas 100 has indicated the potential continuation of the impulsive down move of its short-term downtrend phase as the minor countertrend rebound from the 18 August 2023 low is likely to be over. Watch the 15,135 key short-term pivotal resistance (also the 20-day moving average) to maintain the bearish tone and a break below 14,580 exposes the next support at 14,300/250 (Fibonacci extension cluster & and a graphical support, refer to the daily chart in Fig 1). On the other hand, a clearance above 15,135 negates the bearish tone to see a retest on the 15,415/460 medium-term resistance.    

GBP/USD The British pound plummeted by 125 pips on Thursday, immediately overcoming two strong support levels: 1.2666 and 1.2614. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is declining in negative territory, with 1.2500 as the target - the embedded line of the price channel is open. Overcoming this mark will allow the price to fall to 1.2447.     To extend the decline, the price will need to settle below 1.2447, with the 1.2307 level as the target. Today's Jackson Hole symposium increases the risk of speculative movements. The market will listen to the Fed's head, Jerome Powell, remarks regarding the central bank's monetary policy.     On the four-hour chart, the price has settled below 1.2614, and the Marlin oscillator shows an intention to turn around as it approaches the oversold territory. Possibly, before the speeches of the symposium's key figures, the pound will consolidate.    

Erased prior two weeks of consecutive losing streaks to trade a current year-to-date closing high of US$86.31 per barrel printed on last Friday, 1 September. Price actions are oscillating within short-term and medium-term uptrend phases. Hourly technical indicators (RSI & Bollinger Bands Bandwidth) are suggesting the risk of an imminent minor pull-back in price actions after last week’s strong upside reversal. Watch the key short-term pivotal resistance at US$87.25 per barrel. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “WTI Oil Technical: Potential bullish reversal to resume medium-term uptrend” published on 21 August 2023. Click here for a recap. The price actions of West Texas Oil (a proxy of WTI crude oil futures) have managed to snap its prior two weeks of consecutive losing streak and cleared above the US$84.90 resistance as highlighted in our previous report. Also, it recorded a weekly gain of +7.35% for the week ended last Friday, 1 September.     Rallied to a 10-month high Fig 1:  West Texas Oil medium-term trend as of 4 Sep 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) In addition, last Friday’s bullish momentum has allowed it to surpass its recent medium-term swing high of US$84.92 per barrel printed on 10 August 2023 and notched a current year-to-date closing high of US$86.31 on last Friday, also its highest level since 15 November 2022. In addition, current price actions have managed to trade above their respective 20, 50, and 200-day moving averages which indicates that West Texas Oil is oscillating within short-term and medium-term uptrend phases. Risk of an imminent minor pull-back in price actions Fig 2:  West Texas Oil minor short-term trend as of 4 Sep 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)       However, the current up move of +10.7% from its 23 August 2023 low of US$78.03 to its 1 September 2023 high of US$86.36 seems overstretched which suggests that the current short-term uptrend phase is due for a potential minor pull-back/setback. Two key technical conditions are advocating this potential minor pull-back/setback scenario for West Texas Oil within its ongoing short to medium-term uptrend phases. Firstly, the hourly RSI oscillator has exploded to an extreme overbought condition of 84.53, its highest level since 2 April 2023. Secondly, the hourly Bollinger Bands Bandwidth (%) has increased to a two-week high which indicates a significant expansion in short-term volatility. An expansion in short-term volatility as indicated by the widening of the hourly Bollinger Bands Bandwidth (%) tends to lead to a normalization of such a heightened level of volatility in the next few trading sessions which supports an imminent potential minor pull-back/setback for price actions. Watch the US$87.25 key short-term pivotal resistance to maintain the potential minor pull-back/setback scenario for West Texas Oil towards the intermediate supports at US$84.90 and US$83.60. However, a clearance above US$87.25 invalidates the minor bearish tone for a continuation of the bullish impulsive up move sequence to see the next resistance at US$89.10 (Fibonacci retracement/extension cluster; 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the major downtrend from 7 March 2022 high to 4 May 2023 low & 0.618 Fibonacci extension of the medium-term uptrend from 28 June 2023 low to 10 August 2023 high projected to 23 August 2023 low). Content

Erased prior two weeks of consecutive losing streaks to trade a current year-to-date closing high of US$86.31 per barrel printed on last Friday, 1 September. Price actions are oscillating within short-term and medium-term uptrend phases. Hourly technical indicators (RSI & Bollinger Bands Bandwidth) are suggesting the risk of an imminent minor pull-back in price actions after last week’s strong upside reversal. Watch the key short-term pivotal resistance at US$87.25 per barrel. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “WTI Oil Technical: Potential bullish reversal to resume medium-term uptrend” published on 21 August 2023. Click here for a recap. The price actions of West Texas Oil (a proxy of WTI crude oil futures) have managed to snap its prior two weeks of consecutive losing streak and cleared above the US$84.90 resistance as highlighted in our previous report. Also, it recorded a weekly gain of +7.35% for the week ended last Friday, 1 September.     Rallied to a 10-month high   Fig 1:  West Texas Oil medium-term trend as of 4 Sep 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) In addition, last Friday’s bullish momentum has allowed it to surpass its recent medium-term swing high of US$84.92 per barrel printed on 10 August 2023 and notched a current year-to-date closing high of US$86.31 on last Friday, also its highest level since 15 November 2022. In addition, current price actions have managed to trade above their respective 20, 50, and 200-day moving averages which indicates that West Texas Oil is oscillating within short-term and medium-term uptrend phases. Risk of an imminent minor pull-back in price actions Fig 2:  West Texas Oil minor short-term trend as of 4 Sep 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)   However, the current up move of +10.7% from its 23 August 2023 low of US$78.03 to its 1 September 2023 high of US$86.36 seems overstretched which suggests that the current short-term uptrend phase is due for a potential minor pull-back/setback. Two key technical conditions are advocating this potential minor pull-back/setback scenario for West Texas Oil within its ongoing short to medium-term uptrend phases. Firstly, the hourly RSI oscillator has exploded to an extreme overbought condition of 84.53, its highest level since 2 April 2023. Secondly, the hourly Bollinger Bands Bandwidth (%) has increased to a two-week high which indicates a significant expansion in short-term volatility. An expansion in short-term volatility as indicated by the widening of the hourly Bollinger Bands Bandwidth (%) tends to lead to a normalization of such a heightened level of volatility in the next few trading sessions which supports an imminent potential minor pull-back/setback for price actions. Watch the US$87.25 key short-term pivotal resistance to maintain the potential minor pull-back/setback scenario for West Texas Oil towards the intermediate supports at US$84.90 and US$83.60. However, a clearance above US$87.25 invalidates the minor bearish tone for a continuation of the bullish impulsive up move sequence to see the next resistance at US$89.10 (Fibonacci retracement/extension cluster; 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the major downtrend from 7 March 2022 high to 4 May 2023 low & 0.618 Fibonacci extension of the medium-term uptrend from 28 June 2023 low to 10 August 2023 high projected to 23 August 2023 low).  

The recent four months of bullish acceleration may have reached a major climax condition at 166.60 resistance. The short-term minor trend of CHF/JPY has turned bearish as it traded below the prior upward-sloping 20-day moving average. Watch the key short-term resistance at 165.60 on CHF/JPY. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “CHF/JPY Technical: Relentless uptrend movement” published on 31 August 2023. Click here for a recap. After recording an accumulated gain of +2,378 pips since January 2023, the cross pair CHF/JPY seems to have lost its bullish mojo as it failed to make any headway above the 166.60 key major resistance and broke below its medium-term support at 164.50 (defined by the lower boundary of an ascending channel from 20 March 2023 low) yesterday, 11 September.   A major bullish climax may have been reached   Fig 1:  CHF/JPY long-term term secular trend as of 12 Sep 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) The recent bullish acceleration move in the past four months may have reached a climax where price actions at the end of August 2023 formed a monthly bearish “Spinning Top” candlestick pattern coupled with the 3-month RSI oscillator hitting an extreme all-time high overbought level of 80.79 at this time of the writing based on data available since April 1972.   Short-term momentum has turned bearish     Fig 2:  CHF/JPY minor short-term trend as of 12 Sep 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) Since 7 September 2022, the CHF/JPY has pierced below its 20-day moving average and started to form a series of “lower highs” and “lower lows”. In conjunction with the 1-hour RSI oscillator that has also traced out similar “lower highs” below a parallel descending resistance at the 57-level which suggests short-term bearish momentum of price actions remains intact. Watch the 165.60 key short-term pivotal resistance (also the 20-day moving average) and a break below the intermediate support at 163.80 (former minor range resistance of 21 July to 8 August 2023 & the 50-day moving average) may trigger a further impulsive slide to see the next support coming in at 162.10 in the first step. However, a clearance above 165.60 negates the bearish tone for a push-up to retest the 166.60 key major resistance.

The small-cap Russell 2000 which is considered as a better proxy of the US economy has just broken below its key 200-day moving average. It is the worst-performing major US benchmark stock index since August 2023. Its recent major downtrend phase from 5 November 2021 to 16 June 2022 started ahead of the other indices; S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average. Given such a leading element, a further down move in the Russell 2000 may trigger a similar negative feedback loop into the other US benchmark stock indices. Watch its key short-term resistance at 1,865.   Since the US regional banking crisis that imploded in early March this year, the performance of the small-cap Russell 2000 has not made any headway as it failed to break above its major “Symmetrical Triangle” range resistance at 2,009 in place since 16 August 2022. Also, in the past two months, it has been the worst-performing major US benchmark stock indices where it ended August with a loss of -5.17%, way below the S&P 500 (-1.77%), Nasdaq 100 (-1.62%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (-2.36%). For the current month-to-date performance as of 13 September, the Russell 2000 has remained in the doldrums with a loss of -3.10% and underperformed against the S&P 500 (-0.89%), Nasdaq 100 (-0.98%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.42%) over the same period.   Broke below key 200-day moving average   Fig 1: US Russ 2000 major and medium-term trends as of 14 Sep 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) The current price actions of the US Russ 2000 Index (a proxy for the Russell 2000 futures) have inched lower since the 1 August 2023 high of 2,009 and it is now almost at a similar price level during the onset of the US regional banking liquidity crisis that erupted on 9 March 2023. Technical analysis and momentum factor are now flashing signs of potential medium-term weakness as yesterday’s daily price action at the close has broken below its key 200-day moving average slightly at the end of yesterday, 13 September US session. Also, the US Russ 2000 Index is the sole US benchmark index that has breached below the key 200-day moving average ahead of the others (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 & Dow Jones Industrial Average). Interestingly, in the prior major downtrend phase, the US Russ 2000 Index kickstarted the bearish movement ahead of the rest where its all-time high of 2,464 peaked on 8 November 2021 before the respective peak periods of all-time highs of the S&P 500 (4 January 2022), Nasdaq 100 (22 November 2021), Dow Jones Industrial Average (5 January 2022).   Therefore, if the US Russ 2000 starts to exhibit another bout of multi-week down move sequence thereafter and breaks below the major “Symmetrical Triangle” range support at 1,734, it may signal the start of another major downtrend phase for the US benchmark stock indices. Oscillating within a short-term minor downtrend   Fig 2: US Russ 2000 short-term minor trend as of 14 Sep 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) Since its 1 September 2023 high of 1,931, the price actions of the US Russ 2000 Index have evolved within a minor descending channel and traded below a downward-slopping 20-day moving average which indicates a short-term minor downtrend is in motion. Watch the 1,865 key short-term pivotal resistance to maintain the short-term bearish scenario to see the intermediate supports coming in at 1,832 and 1,814 (Fibonacci extension from 1 September 2023 high, lower boundary of the minor descending channel & 3 April/19 April 2023 swing lows). On the flip side, a clearance above 1,865 negates the bullish tone for a squeeze up towards the 1,894/1,898 resistance zone (congestion area of 1 September/6 September 2023 & 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the current minor down move from 1 September 2023 high to 13 September 2023, US session low).  

The recent minor corrective pull-back of -4.7% from its 19 September 2023 high of US$93.05 is likely to have ended. Bullish reversal candlestick, a daily “Hammer” sighted after a retest on its upward-sloping 20-day moving average. Key short-term support to watch will be at US$90.30, the pull-back of the former minor “pennant” range resistance. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “WTI Oil Technical: Bullish exhaustion sighted below US$93.80 per barrel key resistance” published on 20 September 2023. Click here for a recap. West Texas Oil (a proxy of WTI crude oil futures) has indeed shaped the bearish counter-trend pull-back movement of -4.7% from its 19 September 2023 minor swing high of US$93.05/barrel to a low of US$88.66/barrel printed yesterday, 26 September which fell short of the earlier highlighted short-term support zone of US$86.30/US$84.90 as per highlighted in our prior analysis. Overall, the price actions of West Texas Oil are still evolving within a major uptrend phase which is still intact since its 4 May 2023 low of US$63.67 per barrel.     Key bullish reversal sighted after a retest on the 20-day moving average   Fig 1:  West Texas Oil medium-term& major trends as of 27 Sep 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) Interestingly, there was a significant change in sentiment yesterday that led to the formation of a daily bullish reversal “Hammer” candlestick pattern right after a retest on the upward-sloping 20-day moving average that is acting as a support at around US$88.90/barrel. These positive technical elements where price actions have staged an intraday reversal from yesterday, 26 September intraday low of US$88.66/barrel and closed near the upper end of its intraday range suggests a potential start of another medium-term impulsive up move sequence within its major uptrend phase.   Bullish breakout from minor “pennant” range configuration Fig 2:  West Texas Oil minor short-term trend as of 27 Sep 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) Yesterday’s price actions of West Texas Oil have also staged a bullish breakout from a 5-day minor “pennant” range configuration which indicates a potential continuation of its prior short-term bullish movement above the 20-day moving average. Watch the US$90.30 key short-term pivotal support for a potential push up towards US$93.80 and a clearance above it sees the next intermediate resistance coming in at US$95.80. On the other hand, failure to hold at the US$90.30 key support invalidates the minor bullish breakout scenario for another round of corrective pull-back to expose the next intermediate support zone of US$88.90/US$88.06.  

Oil up, capital flows into safe haven on Mid-East tensions By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank   Capital flows into the safety of US dollar and gold this morning, while oil is up almost 4% after Hamas' unexpected attack on Israel wreaked havoc in the region last Friday, and tensions have been mounting since then. There are rumours that Iran helped Hamas organize its attack, and the US said it's sending warships to the region. The escalation of the tensions sent a panic wave into the financial markets on Monday open. The barrel of American crude traded past $87pb, as fears of a potential retaliation against Iran threaten the passage of vessels carrying oil through the Strait of Hormuz and flip the market rhetoric from a potentially slowing global oil demand to tight global supply.   It is difficult to predict the extent of the price action on geopolitical shocks. The fact that the US and Iran are pulled into the turmoil hints that tensions may further escalate. From a price perspective, the $90pb level is expected to shelter decent offers in US crude, as escalation and prolongation of Mid-East tensions could be the final straw that could bring the world very close to the brink of recession, and temper appetite for oil. It's too early to call.   From a geopolitical perspective, this war is different from the one in 1973 because the political and the geopolitical landscape is unalike. First Arabic countries are not attacking Israel together. Second, OPEC countries do have spare capacity that they restrict willingly to maintain oil price at above the $80pb, but they don't necessarily think of tripling oil prices – which would only accelerate the energy transition. Third, yes, the US could continue to tap into its strategic oil reserves to level out a potential price shock even though SPR is down to a 40-year low following the Ukrainian war and finally, the Ukrainian war and embargo on Russian oil are already in play and the West has little margin to impose another embargo on Arab oil. This being said, potential retaliation against Tehran is a serious upside risk for oil prices. We will keep an eye on developments, but don't speculate on a full-blast rise in oil prices for now.   Trading in Asia was mixed, stocks in Tel Aviv lost 6.5%, sentiment in Europe is sour and the US equity futures are down. Gold acts as a strong safe haven. The price of an ounce jumped past the $1850 level this morning, and further escalation of tensions should drive capital into the safety of gold. The upside potential extends to a distant $2000 per ounce, but gains due to geopolitical tensions are not expected to last long. What will remain decisive for gold's medium, long-term performance will be the US yields. For now, they are on a rising path.   Even though last Friday seems like it was ages ago, the NFP printed a shocker 336K new nonfarm job additions. But the wages growth was softer than expected and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.8%, instead of cooling down to 3.7% as expected by analysts. Expectations of November rate hike are steady, there is near 80% chance of no rate hike.  This week, the market attention will shift to the big bank earnings, and to the latest US inflation update. The US consumer price inflation is seen easing from 0.7% to 0.3% on a monthly basis thanks to the cooling energy prices over the past month, and the yearly CPI figure could soften from 3.7% to 3.6%. The core CPI, which is more important for the Fed expectations, is expected to have eased to 4.1%. The US 10-year yield is at the highest level since 2007; no surprise or a good surprise could spark interest from bond traders at the current levels.  

GBP/USD has been trading downside into the gap area (single prints) and the price action around this zone will be the the key to observe.   In case of the rejection of the support, I see potetnial for the further upside movement towards upside reference at 1.2500. In case of the downside hold below the 1.2423, there is the chance for the further downside movement towards 1.2330 RSI oscillator is showing reading below 50, which is sign that sellers are in control.

EUR/USD In the final trading day of 2023, the euro fell by 25 pips on below-average volume, finding support at 1.1033. Since there was no significant profit-taking, we expect the uptrend to remain intact. A break above the level of 1.1076 opens up a substantial target like 1.1185, which is the November 2021 low and the March 2022 high. We could see bullish potential at 1.1280. The Marlin oscillator has also corrected lower, visually preparing for a reversal into a new upward wave.   All the price action and oscillator movements occur within an uptrend. It's worth noting that this progress is taking place within a medium-term green-colored ascending price channel. Even if there is a break below the 1.1033 support level, we will not hastily revise the main scenario.   On the 4-hour chart, the price is supported by the balance indicator line. The Marlin oscillator is in a bearish territory but may require a trigger to return to the bullish territory. Today's reports on the final estimates of the eurozone and U.S. industrial PMIs for December may serve as a catalyst. The forecasts remain unchanged (44.2 and 48.2, respectively), but tomorrow's Manufacturing ISM for December is projected to stand at 47.1, up from 46.7 in November. We can assume that today's final estimate of the Manufacturing PMI might surprise everyone and turn out to be better than expected. Such, albeit minor, optimism could sustain risk appetite and push stock markets and counter-dollar currencies into the green zone.

The bearish trend, a significant aspect of Forex trading, plays a crucial role in shaping investment decisions. This article aims to elucidate the characteristics of the bear market and its implications for traders. Understanding the Downtrend As discussed in our previous articles, a trend represents the direction in which the price of a currency pair is moving. A fundamental trading principle is to align investments with the trend rather than against it. Therefore, comprehending the downtrend is essential. The identification of a downtrend can be facilitated by analyzing charts that reflect past price values. Analyzing the Downtrend In the chart, the descending peaks and troughs, marked in red, signify a downtrend. Connecting the peaks forms a clear trend line. The strength of the trend is proportional to the distance between the peaks, with a larger gap indicating a more robust trend. While charts may not always vividly display trend lines, recognizing a general downward price trend can serve as a signal to temporarily exit the market. Bear Market Dynamics A bear market, synonymous with a downtrend, occurs when prices consistently decline. In the long term, it signifies a bearish market. Adhering to the popular adage "the trend is your friend," in such scenarios, traders usually contemplate selling. Bear markets often exhibit greater volatility compared to bullish trends, attributed to the accompanying unease amid declining prices. Support and Resistance Lines Support and resistance lines denote potential reversal points in the price movement of a currency pair. In a downtrend, support comprises the successive troughs, each lower than the previous one. These levels represent the depths of prior downward movements, acting as points where the price resisted further decline. Conversely, resistance surfaces when there is a visible level at which the price resisted further upward movement. Referring to the "change of poles" principle, if a resistance level is breached, it transforms into a support level. This pivotal moment often prompts seasoned traders to enter the market. Understanding the dynamics of a bear market is crucial for Forex traders. By recognizing the signs of a downtrend, interpreting charts, and comprehending the roles of support and resistance lines, traders can navigate the complexities of bearish markets more adeptly.

WASDE update: Higher US corn and soybean supplies The USDA released a fairly bearish WASDE report on Friday with US ending stocks for both corn and soybeans coming in above expectations.   Record US corn production The USDA revised up its 2023/24 US corn production estimates by 108m bushels to a record 15.34bn bushels due to higher yields. This was above market expectations of around 15.22bn bushels. The yield estimates were increased by 2.4bu/acre to 177.3bu/acre. As a result, US ending stocks for 2023/24 were increased to 2.2bn bushels, up 31m bushels from the previous estimate, and above the roughly 2.1bn bushels the market was expecting. For the global balance, 2023/24 ending stock estimates were revised up from 315.2mt to 325.2mt primarily due to larger supplies. The market was expecting a number closer to 313mt. Global corn production estimates rose by 13.7mt to 1,235.7mt, driven by an increase in the US (+2.7mt), and China (+11.8mt). Revisions to both the US and global balance were bearish, which is well reflected in the price action following the release.       Corn supply/demand balance   US soybean stocks rise The USDA raised 2023/24 US soybean production estimates from 4,129m bushels to 4,165m bushels with yields revised up from 49.9 bushels/acre to 50.6 bushels/acre. As a result, ending stock estimates for 2023/24 were increased by 35m bushels to 280m bushels. This was quite a bit higher than expectations of around 245m bushels. Only marginal changes were seen in the global balance, which meant that global soybean ending stocks for 2023/24 increased by just 0.4mt to 114.6mt. Global production estimates were largely left unchanged at around 399mt as gains in Argentina, the US and Paraguay were offset by revisions lower in Brazilian supply. Overall, larger-than-expected ending stocks in the release were bearish for the soybean market.   Soybeans supply/demand balance   Global wheat stocks edge higher The USDA decreased its US ending stocks estimate for 2023/24 from 659m bushels to 648m bushels following a reduction in beginning stocks. This was lower than market expectations of around 659m bushels. Meanwhile, the agency left production and export estimates unchanged at 1.8bn bushels and 725m bushels, respectively. For the global market, the USDA increased its 2023/24 ending stocks estimate from 258.2mt to 260mt, largely on account of higher stocks at the start of the year. The market had largely expected global ending stocks to remain roughly unchanged. The agency revised up its demand estimates to 796.4mt from 794.7mt, driven by India (+1.3mt), and the EU (+1mt). However, higher demand estimates were offset by an increase in production estimates from 783mt to 784.9mt. This was due to increases from Russia (+1mt), Ukraine (+0.9mt), and Saudi Arabia (+1.5mt).   Wheat supply/demand balance

EUR: A new PMI test EUR/USD is around 1.0% cheaper compared to its short-term financial fair value at current levels. Normally, only deviations beyond the 1.5 standard deviation band (+/- 1.5% for EUR/USD) are followed by rapid convergences to the fair value. However, we believe the dollar rallied a bit too far yesterday, and there is some room for EUR/USD to tick back above 1.0900 into tomorrow’s European Central Bank announcement (here is our preview). At the same time, much of today’s price action in the pair will depend on PMIs. French and German figures are published ahead of the eurozone-wide numbers this morning. Expectations are modestly optimistic, with the eurozone composite PMIs seen rising from 47.6 to 48.0, led by marginal gains in both services and manufacturing. PMIs are often assessed in comparison with other countries. In the case of the eurozone, against the US and the UK. The consensus for UK PMIs is for a flat 52.1 (composite) reading. Barring a material surprise in the eurozone print, the lingering divergence between contractionary (EZ) and expansionary (UK) PMIs will keep EUR/GBP pressured today.