price

VLX is sitting around a strong demand zone in green so we will be looking for buy setupson Daily: VLX formed a valid wedge pattern in blue but it is not ready to go yet. Trigger => Waiting for a momentum candle close above the last high in gray for the bulls to take over from a long-term perspective. Meanwhile, since VLX is sitting inside our demand zone , we will be looking for buy setups on lower timeframes. Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich

Today we are looking at the EURUSD on the 8H as price has broken the fast trend and has started to form a new leg higher. The move has been accelerated by today’s reversal on the USD, which looks to be taking a break after three straight sessions of gains. The EURUSD spent a fair period of time in its last trend lower after the last countertrend broke. Buyers tried a few times to regain control in the previous trend lower, but sellers had the answers until today. Today buyers look to have found plenty of drive as not only have we seen the range beaten, but we have also seen the fast trend broken. With the USD helping drive momentum, buyers look to be in control for the time being. There are a few things to keep an eye on. A fade of the current 8H bar cutting all of its gains is a warning, as is a new move back into the range which could also pressure to break the uptrend. We would like to see a positive close in today’s NY session showing buyers are in command. If we do see the rally hold, we will be looking for the next pullback to hold the new trendline further confirming it. If that all stay’s the course, we would be looking to the supply/resistance pictured on the chart to possibly offer up a test for buyers. EURUSD 8H Chart The post Forex News: EURUSD has some drive, but can it continue? appeared first on Eightcap.

Today we are looking at the ASX200 on the daily timeframe. Price has once again returned to a key supply area. Will we see another rally stopped, or could this be a push into new records? The ASX200 has put together three solid months after a shocker to start 2022. Price 6.81% in January before buyers got back hold of things and put over 8% back on to the current point in April. So far this week, we have seen 1% added by buyers. This takes us back to a key area of supply. From roughly 7590 to 7640, we have seen two major trend reversals once price has moved into this area. 13th of August 2021 was the first rejection, and we saw the latest on the 4th of January, which led to a 9% pullback. Buyers once again have a robust medium-term uptrend in play that got going in March. Earlier this month, buyers broke out of consolidation setting up the new push back to the supply area. Will this run be different and finally break and close above 7640-7652, setting a new all-time high? The ASX has a lead on US indexes as it sits close to all-time records atm. US indexes are pushing higher despite inflation and treasury worries. Their continued momentum might be the lead that ASX buyers need to get to that next step. Australian inflation is rising as the RBA has already hinted at higher rates, but for now, that doesn’t look to be causing too much worry to the short term price. We will be watching with interest if buyers can continue to push higher or if we will see sellers flood back in once again, holding the supply area. ASX200 D1 Chart The post CFD News: ASX200 returns to a key supply area appeared first on Eightcap.

The Swing Overview - Week 16 Jerome Powell confirmed that the Fed will be aggressive in fighting the inflation and confirmed tighter interest rate hikes starting in May. Equity indices fell strongly after this news. Inflation in the euro area reached a record high of 7.4% in March. Despite this news, the euro continued to weaken. The sell-off also continued in the Japanese yen, which is the weakest against the US dollar in last 20 years.  The USD index strengthens along with US bond yields Fed chief Jerome Powell said on Thursday that the Fed could raise interest rates by 0.50% in May. The Fed could continue its aggressive pace of rate hikes in the coming months of this year. US 10-year bond yields have responded to this news by strengthening further and have already reached 2.94%. The US dollar has also benefited from this development and has already surpassed the value 100 and continues to move in an uptrend. Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields and USD index on the daily chart Earnings season is underway in equities Rising interest rates continue to weigh on equity indices, which gave back gains from the first half of the last week and weakened significantly on Thursday following the Fed’s information on the aggressive pace of interest rate hikes.   In addition, the earnings season, which is in full swing, is weighing on index movements. For example, Netflix and Tesla reported results last week.   While Netflix unpleasantly surprised by reducing the number of subscribers by 200,000 in 1Q 2022 and the company's shares fell by 35% in the wake of the news, Tesla, on the other hand, exceeded analysts' expectations and the stock gained more than 10% after the results were announced. Tesla has thus shown that it has been able to cope with the supply chain problems and higher subcontracting prices that are plaguing the entire automotive sector much better than its competitors.   The decline in Netflix subscribers can be explained by people starting to save more in an environment of rising prices. Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart The SP 500 index continues to undergo a downward correction, which is shown on the H4 chart. The price has reached the resistance level at 4,514-4,520. The price continues to move below the SMA 100 moving average (blue line) on the daily chart which indicates bearish sentiment.  The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is at 4,514 - 4,520. The next resistance is around 4,583 - 4,600. The support is at 4,360 - 4,365.   The German DAX index The DAX is also undergoing a correction and the last candlestick on the daily chart is a bearish pin bar which suggests that the index could fall further. Figure 3: The German DAX index on H4 and daily chart This index is also below the SMA 100 on the daily chart, confirming the bearish sentiment. The price has reached a support according to the H4 chart, which is at 14,340 - 14,370. However, this is very likely to be overcome quickly. The next support is 13 910 - 14 000. The nearest resistance is 14 592 - 14 632.   The DAX is affected by the French presidential election that is going to happen on Sunday April 24, 2022. According to the latest polls, Macron is leading over Le Pen and if the election turns out like this, it should not have a significant impact on the markets. However, if Marine Le Pen wins in a surprise victory, it can be very negative news for the French economy and would weigh on the DAX index as well.   The euro remains in a downtrend The Fed's hawkish policy and the ECB's dovish rhetoric at its meeting on Thursday April 14, 2022, which showed that the ECB is not planning to raise rates in the short term, put further pressure on the European currency. The French presidential election and, of course, the ongoing war in Ukraine are also causing uncertainty.  Figure 4: The EURUSD on the H4 and daily charts. The inflation data was reported last week, which came in at 7.4% on year-on-year basis. The previous month inflation was 5.9%. This rise in inflation caused the euro to strengthen briefly to the resistance level at 1.0930 - 1.0950. However, there was then a rapid decline from this level following the Fed's reports of a quick tightening in the economy. A support is at 1.0760 - 1.0780.   The sell-off in the Japanese yen is not over The Japanese yen is also under pressure. The US dollar has already reached 20-year highs against the Japanese yen (USD/JPY) and it looks like the yen's weakening against the US dollar could continue. This is because the Bank of Japan has the most accommodative monetary policy of any major central bank and continues to support the economy while the Fed will aggressively tighten the economy. Thus, this fundamental suggests that a reversal in the USD/JPY pair should not happen anytime soon. Figure 5: The USDJPY on the monthly chart In terms of technical analysis, the USD/JPY price broke through the strong resistance band around the price of 126.00 seen on the monthly chart. The currency pair thus has room to grow further up to the resistance, which is in the area near 135 yens per dollar.  

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT soft commodities data is the recent rises in Soybean Oil futures bets. The speculative net position in the Soybean Oil futures has gained for three straight weeks and has increased in eight out of the past ten weeks. Soybean Oil speculator positions have added a total of +39,176 contracts over the past ten weeks as well. This ascent in bullish bets has brought the current overall position to over +100,000 net contracts and to the highest level of the past fifty-six weeks, dating back to March 23rd of 2021. Soybean Oil prices raced to a record high level at over $80 per pound this week and surpassed the previous price peaks of 2008 and 2021. The Soybean Oil prices have had a strong fundamental component driving it higher. The war in Ukraine has created a major disruption in Sunflower Oils (Ukraine and Russia are major suppliers) that has pushed the prices in alternative oils and other soft commodities sharply higher. Reuters news service also cited an Indonesia ban on exports of Palm Oil as having caused an even greater demand for alternative vegetable oils. The dreary outlook for vegetable oil production could mean we see even higher Soybean Oil prices. Overall, the soft commodities that saw higher bets this week were Corn (5,031 contracts), Soybeans (1,803 contracts), Soybean Oil (6,887 contracts), Soybean Meal (6,498 contracts), Live Cattle (2,683 contracts), Lean Hogs (2,231 contracts) and Cotton (1,900 contracts). The soft commodities that saw lower bets this week were Sugar (-349 contracts), Coffee (-6,126 contracts), Cocoa (-2,802 contracts) and Wheat (-641 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Apr-19-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,740,300 0 307,697 1 -351,252 100 43,555 76 Gold 575,202 40 239,757 60 -275,525 37 35,768 66 Silver 170,577 35 46,429 69 -63,288 37 16,859 41 Copper 203,896 29 18,840 56 -28,307 40 9,467 80 Palladium 6,435 0 -2,182 9 1,560 85 622 80 Platinum 61,603 24 7,537 13 -13,812 89 6,275 50 Natural Gas 1,144,047 14 -130,006 40 82,113 57 47,893 100 Brent 191,883 33 -40,102 44 37,663 56 2,439 42 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 762,855 36 200,098 80 -174,873 25 -25,225 28 Corn 1,625,198 42 500,612 94 -456,269 7 -44,343 18 Coffee 209,410 0 41,803 79 -45,447 24 3,644 15 Sugar 909,622 21 239,515 86 -295,470 12 55,955 77 Wheat 337,038 1 23,245 67 -20,425 21 -2,820 98   CORN Futures: The CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 500,612 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,031 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 495,581 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent. CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.1 45.0 9.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.3 73.1 12.1 – Net Position: 500,612 -456,269 -44,343 – Gross Longs: 586,638 731,004 152,407 – Gross Shorts: 86,026 1,187,273 196,750 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.0 6.9 17.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.3 0.1 -1.7   SUGAR Futures: The SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 239,515 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 239,864 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent. SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.6 44.2 11.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.3 76.7 5.5 – Net Position: 239,515 -295,470 55,955 – Gross Longs: 296,437 402,400 105,565 – Gross Shorts: 56,922 697,870 49,610 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 85.8 12.1 77.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 18.2 -19.8 20.0   COFFEE Futures: The COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 41,803 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,126 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,929 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent. COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.5 53.8 4.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.5 75.5 2.9 – Net Position: 41,803 -45,447 3,644 – Gross Longs: 53,423 112,616 9,760 – Gross Shorts: 11,620 158,063 6,116 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 78.5 24.5 15.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.6 8.4 -2.5   SOYBEANS Futures: The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 200,098 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,803 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 198,295 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent. SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.8 46.0 7.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.6 69.0 10.5 – Net Position: 200,098 -174,873 -25,225 – Gross Longs: 250,566 351,286 55,231 – Gross Shorts: 50,468 526,159 80,456 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 79.8 24.7 28.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.1 3.4 3.6   SOYBEAN OIL Futures: The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 105,211 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 6,887 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 98,324 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent. SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.5 44.2 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.8 76.5 4.9 – Net Position: 105,211 -127,399 22,188 – Gross Longs: 124,302 174,162 41,383 – Gross Shorts: 19,091 301,561 19,195 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 80.6 16.1 96.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.3 -9.5 20.0   SOYBEAN MEAL Futures: The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 122,756 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 116,258 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.0 percent. SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.5 42.4 13.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 3.1 80.7 5.2 – Net Position: 122,756 -154,801 32,045 – Gross Longs: 135,397 171,107 52,874 – Gross Shorts: 12,641 325,908 20,829 – Long to Short Ratio: 10.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 95.8 2.4 99.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.6 -2.2 13.0   LIVE CATTLE Futures: The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 54,525 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,683 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,842 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.6 39.8 10.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.8 54.8 12.9 – Net Position: 54,525 -45,886 -8,639 – Gross Longs: 115,285 122,065 30,955 – Gross Shorts: 60,760 167,951 39,594 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 29.5 67.0 56.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.6 -12.0 -5.7   LEAN HOGS Futures: The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 43,002 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,231 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,771 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent. LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.4 34.4 10.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.6 51.1 12.7 – Net Position: 43,002 -38,275 -4,727 – Gross Longs: 83,133 78,601 24,424 – Gross Shorts: 40,131 116,876 29,151 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.6 48.2 69.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.3 6.1 16.7   COTTON Futures: The COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 85,120 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,900 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,220 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent. COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 46.6 35.0 9.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.0 81.8 3.1 – Net Position: 85,120 -98,107 12,987 – Gross Longs: 97,613 73,296 19,582 – Gross Shorts: 12,493 171,403 6,595 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.8 to 1 0.4 to 1 3.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.9 20.6 94.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.1 -1.0 20.9   COCOA Futures: The COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 36,357 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,802 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,159 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent. COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.5 45.6 6.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.4 63.5 3.5 – Net Position: 36,357 -43,099 6,742 – Gross Longs: 75,822 109,538 15,230 – Gross Shorts: 39,465 152,637 8,488 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.3 44.0 65.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.5 -2.9 -34.9   WHEAT Futures: The WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 23,245 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -641 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,886 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.1 percent. WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.0 37.6 9.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.1 43.7 10.4 – Net Position: 23,245 -20,425 -2,820 – Gross Longs: 121,339 126,766 32,116 – Gross Shorts: 98,094 147,191 34,936 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 66.8 21.0 98.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.0 -14.5 22.9   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT metals data is the recent decline in the Gold futures bets. The speculative net position in the Gold futures has fallen for two out of the past three weeks and in four out of the past six weeks. Previously, Gold speculator positions had added bullish bets for five consecutive weeks from February 8th through March 8th and brought the speculator bullish standing to the highest level in sixty-one weeks at +274,388 contracts. The recent reduction in speculator bets and the slight cool off in the Gold price do not necessarily mean that sentiment for the shiny metal is turning. In fact, the Gold position may have greater heights in store as open interest levels have not recently touched any significant peak high (typically a surge of opinions and counter-opinions that can stop a trend especially at key levels) and the speculator strength level has not reached (or gotten close to) a bullish-extreme level (both of these levels can be signs of a top and exhaustion in trends). The net position for Gold, even after the recent weakness, remains above the 2022 weekly average of +230,004 contracts (the weekly average of all of 2021 was +204,623 contracts). So despite a rising interest rate environment (which may hurt or may help Gold), the combination of super-hot inflationary pressures, a war-time crisis and strong sentiment could help make Gold primed to stay on its bullish path. Overall, the markets with higher speculator bets this week were Silver (443 contracts) and Platinum (1,122 contracts). The markets with declining speculator bets this week were Gold (-14,530 contracts), Copper (-4,510 contracts) and Palladium (-149 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Apr-19-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,740,300 0 307,697 1 -351,252 100 43,555 76 Gold 575,202 40 239,757 60 -275,525 37 35,768 66 Silver 170,577 35 46,429 69 -63,288 37 16,859 41 Copper 203,896 29 18,840 56 -28,307 40 9,467 80 Palladium 6,435 0 -2,182 9 1,560 85 622 80 Platinum 61,603 24 7,537 13 -13,812 89 6,275 50 Natural Gas 1,144,047 14 -130,006 40 82,113 57 47,893 100 Brent 191,883 33 -40,102 44 37,663 56 2,439 42 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 762,855 36 200,098 80 -174,873 25 -25,225 28 Corn 1,625,198 42 500,612 94 -456,269 7 -44,343 18 Coffee 209,410 0 41,803 79 -45,447 24 3,644 15 Sugar 909,622 21 239,515 86 -295,470 12 55,955 77 Wheat 337,038 1 23,245 67 -20,425 21 -2,820 98   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 239,757 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -14,530 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 254,287 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 57.5 22.5 9.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.8 70.4 3.3 – Net Position: 239,757 -275,525 35,768 – Gross Longs: 330,745 129,157 55,032 – Gross Shorts: 90,988 404,682 19,264 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.6 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.4 37.0 65.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -12.0 10.6 9.1   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 46,429 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 443 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,986 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 40.5 32.1 16.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.3 69.2 6.8 – Net Position: 46,429 -63,288 16,859 – Gross Longs: 69,088 54,719 28,471 – Gross Shorts: 22,659 118,007 11,612 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.6 36.8 41.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.9 6.2 -2.6   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 18,840 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,510 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,350 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 40.8 39.4 10.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.6 53.3 5.4 – Net Position: 18,840 -28,307 9,467 – Gross Longs: 83,261 80,280 20,538 – Gross Shorts: 64,421 108,587 11,071 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.9 40.0 80.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.3 8.1 7.0   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 7,537 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,415 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 45.9 35.1 15.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.7 57.5 4.8 – Net Position: 7,537 -13,812 6,275 – Gross Longs: 28,293 21,617 9,250 – Gross Shorts: 20,756 35,429 2,975 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.6 to 1 3.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 12.5 89.3 49.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -26.6 26.6 -3.5   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,182 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -149 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,033 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.9 55.5 21.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 56.8 31.3 11.3 – Net Position: -2,182 1,560 622 – Gross Longs: 1,475 3,573 1,349 – Gross Shorts: 3,657 2,013 727 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.8 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 9.1 85.4 79.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.9 12.1 -12.3   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Summary: Macron's victory was supposedly expected to stabilize EUR. Fed further increase in yields strengthening USD. USD continues to strengthen against the EURO inlight of further US yield increases. Market sentiment for this currency pair is bearish as of market open today, the price is down almost 0,6%. On friday the Fed announced a further increase in the bond yields, this marks the seventh consecutive week that the Fed has increased the US yields. The European Central bank is still behind the Fed on their yield increases, the expectation for this change is increasing but the increased expectations are not helping the EUR to strengthen against the USD. EUR/USD Price Chart Read Next: ECB Announcements to Possibly Tighten Monetary Policy Strengthens the Euro. EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, AUD/NZD and EUR/CHF All Increased The EURO showed overall strengthening against the GBP over the past week. Since the market opened this morning the market sentiment for this currency pair is bullish. The EUR has strengthened against the GBP continuously over the last week. Today the increase has shown almost 0,3%. The EUR is strengthening as a result of the uncertainty with the Bank of England's future yields and the inflation causing personal spending to decrease, hampering the economy. In addition, the EUR strengthened against the GBP inlight of Macron taking the win in the French elections. EUR/GBP Price Chart   Read next: A Reward For A Transaction!? What Is Kishu Inu Coin? ($KISHU) Let's Take A Look At This New Altcoin | FXMAG.COM   EUR/JPY showing bullish signals. Since the market opened this morning the market sentiment is bullish for this currency pair. Despite the bullish sentiment, the price has still fallen by almost 0,8% since this morning. This currency pair is sensitive to trends in broad based market sentiment trends, therefore, inlight of Macron’s victory causing changes in market sentiment it is not surprising this price is seeing volatility. EUR/JPY Price Chart CHF Strengthening. Market sentiment for the currency pair is bullish at the moment. However, despite the bullish signals the price has still fallen almost 4% since the market opened this morning. The Swiss Franc has strengthened today causing this fall. EUR/CHF Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com Read next: Monetary Policy Drives EUR/USD, The Future of the EUR/GBP Awaits the Bank Of England's Speech - Good Morning Forex  

We are now seeing that major economies (US/UK/Japan) are not immune from global deleveraging and inflation. As investors seek safety in the US Dollar this may eventually trigger a broader and deeper selloff in U.S. stocks and market volatility will begin to pick up as the VIXY moves up. As the USD continues to strengthen corporate profits for US multinationals will begin to disappear. Especially in times like these, traders must understand where opportunities are and how to turn this knowledge into profits. Part of what we do at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com is to distill price action into technical strategies and modeling systems. These assist us in understanding when opportunities exist in the US stock market and specific sector ETFs. Our core objective is to protect capital while identifying suitable opportunities for profits in trends. Read next: Mike Swanson Podcast - Find Your Investing & Money Management Strategies| FXMAG.COM VOLATILITY MAY HAVE BOTTOMED SETTING THE STAGE FOR A TREND HIGHER Volatility is beginning to pick up as we see the VIXY moving up strongly from its 6-month base. Utilizing multiple time frame analysis and then focusing on the 4-hour chart we were able to capture the volatility low earlier than we would have by only using the daily, weekly, or monthly chart. VIXY – PROSHARES TRUST VIX SHORT-TERM FUTURES ETF: 4-HOUR THE USD IS UP VS ALL OTHER MAJOR CURRENCIES The US Dollar is continuing to appreciate as investors and central banks seek safety from geopolitical, inflation, and other market dislocations. The low in the USD was made on January 6, 2021. Read next: Global Market Trends Continue To Push US Dollar & US Assets Higher| FXMAG.COM 1 YEAR RELATIVE PERFORMANCE (USD) – WWW.FINVIZ.COM UUP – INVESCO DB USD INDEX BULLISH FUND ETF: DAILY STOCKS MEET RESISTANCE AND ARE SLIPPING AGAIN! Stocks hit resistance the first week of 2022 after hitting a Fibonacci iteration of 2.1618. Less than two months later the SPY found support at yet another Fibonacci number of 1.618. These Fibonacci levels are based on the range calculation of the pre-Covid high and the Covid March 2020 low. However, after rallying from the 1.618 level the SPY rolled over to the downside as it hit a 72-bar (12-day) Bollinger Band using a standard deviation setting of 1.618. Now we will watch closely to see if the price will make a new low for 2022 which may confirm a shift in the overall trend in stocks. SPY – SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST: 4-HOUR INVERSE ETFS OFFER AN ALTERNATIVE TO TRADITIONAL BUY AND HOLD Astute traders who want to do more than liquidate part or all their stock holdings may want to consider investing in an inverted ETF. Inverted ETFs provide the ability to take advantage of a downturn in the stock market without the complexities of having to sell individual stocks short. If our goal as a trader is to make money, we need to adapt and be as agile as necessary. This is one of the reasons why our team continually tracks global money flow according to each country's stock index but additionally other types of markets and asset classes. Our quantitative trading research is crucial in determining which markets to trade and how to efficiently employ trading capital. Read next: What Is Chia Coin? - (XCH) - First New Nakamoto Coin Since Bitcoin Launch (2009) | FXMAG.COM Since we reviewed the SPY uptrend and the potential for a change of trend to the downside; it’s only appropriate to view the opposite side of this trade by looking at the SH inverted ETF. SH – PROSHARES SHORT S&P 500 ETF: 4-HOUR UNDERSTANDING PRICE IS A GAME-CHANger As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades to subscribers. Recently, we entered new trades, all of which hit their first profit target levels and then eventually triggered their break-even profit stop loss orders on their remaining position. After booking our profits we are now safely in cash preparing for our next trades. Our models continually track price action in a multitude of markets and asset classes as we track global money flow. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list. Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! Successful trading is not limited to when to buy or sell stocks or commodities. Money and risk management play a critical role in becoming a consistently profitable trader. Correct position sizing utilizing stop-loss orders helps preserve your investment capital and allows traders to manage their portfolios according to their desired risk parameters. Additionally, scaling out of positions by taking profits and moving stop-loss orders to breakeven can complement ones’ success. WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS? Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens. Historically, bonds have served as one of these safe-havens, but that is not proving to be the case this time around. So if bonds are off the table, what bond alternatives are there and how can they be deployed in a bond replacement strategy? We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Looking at the US30 on the 8H we can see some signs that counter-rally is stalling. Price remains range-bound between 33,485 and 33,170. With inflation white-hot and the talk of recession and possible heavy rate hikes, could this be a pause before we see a new push lower by sellers? All three major US indices are showing similar patterns, but the US30 definitely looks the weaker of the three for now. After yesterday’s choppy end to the session that saw an 8H range of 602 points, price continues to sit midway at the moment with little direction. Price sits in a fast downtrend with one lower high, but this week buyers have started to put up some defence with the start of a consolidation starting to form between support and res 1. This may also be a pause before sellers try to get going again. Res 2 is another point of resistance holding for sellers currently and if we are to start thinking buyer recovery we would like to see both points beaten with a new higher low to show demand. If sellers are able to get the show back on track we would be looking for a break of support to show that they have beaten buyers for now. The market looks to be waiting on something to give it direction and that might just come later this week with US advanced GDP due at 8:30 EST today and US core PCE price index which is a primary inflation measure for the FED. With the current climate around inflation, this could be key data. It’s due out Friday at 8:30 EST. US30 8H Chart The post CFD News: US30 continues to stall after fightback appeared first on Eightcap.

Photo Credits: Jen and www.david baxendale.com with help from pinetools || The casino is exciting. The scale is honest and unrelenting. I want to give an update to one of the major concepts of Ben Graham, in order to make it fit the modern era better. Ben Graham said: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/831517-in-the-short-run-the-market-is-a-voting-machine quoted from The Intelligent Investor So let me modify it: In the short run, the market is a casino, but in the long run, it is a scale. Is this an improvement? Probably not, but speculation has become so rampant that it may be a necessary modification to change voting machine to casino. The voting machine makes sense, but typically we think of voting as being democratic. We only get one vote per person. Markets are different. Someone who brings a little money to the market will not have the same influence as the one who brings a lot of money to the market. Thus my analogy of the casino, though typically casinos will place limits on how much the casino will wager. They want to avoid random large losses so that they can live to extract money from rubes for many years to come. The winner can brag that he “broke the bank,” but the casino survived to play on. Bill Hwang and his CFO were formally charged with fraud today. What did they do? They synthetically borrowed a lot of money from investment banks to own huge amounts of a few companies. Their buying pushed the prices of the stocks higher, allowing them to borrow more against the positions. But eventually as the stocks they owned had some bad results, the margin calls on his positions wiped him out as the stock prices fell. The scale trumped the casino. The same is true of crypto and meme stocks. Cryptocurrencies require a continuing inflow of real cash (admittedly fiat money) in order to appreciate. If people stop buying crypto on net, and that may be happening now, cryptocurrencies will decline. The scale says crypto is a zero — no intrinsic value. The casino begs for more people to bring real money to buy fake money. That applies to meme stocks as well. You can throw a lot of money at a stock and it will rise. But for it to stay there or rise further, it will need increasing free cash flows to validate the value of the firm. Going back to crypto, it lacks any link to the real economy. Crypto will only become legitimate when you can buy groceries and gasoline at a fixed amount of bitcoin that varies less than the same price in US dollars. As a final note on the Scale versus the Casino, I give you Elon Musk. He borrows against his shares of Tesla to buy Twitter. He either did not realize or ignored the fact that he could lose his stake in Tesla if the price of Tesla falls enough. Do you really want the margin desk to control your fate? This may not totally impoverish Musk, but it is not impossible that he could the entirety of his holdings of Tesla in order to keep his holdings of the unprofitable Twitter. All it would take is for short sellers to push Tesla below $740, and then the margin desk starts selling his shares into a falling market. Momentum, aided by an agreement leading to forced selling. The market abhors a vacuum. So it is for those who assume that things will continue to go right for them.

Today our focus is on Arweave (ARUSD). Buyers, for now, have pulled back most of yesterday’s losses and continue to push at a possible engulfing bar pattern. Last month, price was supported by news 17M was raised to help make Arweaves data storage blockchain more usable. Up until today, thing’s haven’t been the best for Arweave, with the last four weeks of trade being lower. A shift has started this week, and we can see buyers trying to pull back from losses. Pattern focus, for now, remains on the daily. Today’s candle is close to forming an engulfing bar which sits just above a level of demand. A fair bit of pressure remains on today’s bar. We really want to see a firm close that really needs to beat yesterday’s open or high, and we would prefer to see a close above yesterday’s high, confirming the bar pattern. A close at that point should also lift the CCI above the 0, moving back into a bullish area and set up a break of the current downtrend. If those are achieved by the end of today’s NY session, we could be seeing a new up-leg developing. If price retraces today and closes below $27, that would cancel out the engulfing idea. If heavy selling resumes, a break of the demand area would suggest that the current downtrend has further to run. If we do see a new move higher get going, we have marked two levels of potential resistance, but we would think that key resistance could be the first real test if reached. Arweave D1 Chart The post Crypto News: Arweave, rally watch as buyers clear $27 appeared first on Eightcap.

Today’s focus is on the EURJPY, and for now, it’s from the sell-side. That might sound a bit strange based on the amazing buying we have been seeing in recent weeks but like everything, nothing lasts forever. Please note that we’re not calling it a trend change, but in the short term, some signs have started to stack up on the seller side. The first sign we can see is the break of the medium-term to the long-term trend. After that break, we saw a short steep counter that is typical of counter-rallies after a break lower. Currently, we can see a build-up of indecision that has formed an LH after the trend break. From 137.50 we can see plenty of supply from sellers halting any new attempt by buyers. These are, for now, all pointing to a possible push lower by sellers, but they have a few things to do before we can start thinking confirmed. First, we need to see minor support beaten to see a resumption of seller control. We would then look lower at 135.28 support and 134.60 support if that happens. If sellers can move below both of those levels, we could have a new downtrend on our hands. We have put in the forming downtrend abut we would like to see price remain inside that trend if it moved back to the support areas. If we see buyers maintain minor support and push to or through the new downtrend line, we would start thinking possible fail, and we would then move back to the drawing board with new focus on a possible retest of the April high if new HLs and HHs are formed. The BOJ and the Jen will also be a focus as they drove the recent rally, and it was primarily policy-driven. Any updates from the BOJ that resume JPY weakness could also be a factor in candling out the current seller price action. EURJPY D1 Chart The post Forex News: EURJPY, LH setting up sellers stacking candles? appeared first on Eightcap.

The Swing Overview – Week 17 Major stock indices continued in their correction and tested strong support levels. In contrast, the US dollar strengthened strongly and is at its highest level since January 2017. The strengthening of the dollar had a negative impact on the value of the euro and commodities such as gold, which fell below the $1,900 per ounce. The Bank of Japan kept interest rates low and the yen broke the magic level 130 per dollar. The USD index strengthened again but the US GDP declined The US consumer confidence in the month of April came in at 107.3, a slight decline from the previous month when consumer confidence was 107.6.   The US GDP data was surprising. The US economy decreased by 1.4% in 1Q 2022 (in the previous quarter the economy grew by 6.4%). This sharp decline surprised even analysts who expected the economy to grow by 1.1%. This result is influenced by the Omicron, which caused the economy to shut down for a longer period than expected earlier this year.    The Fed meeting scheduled for the next week on May 4 will be hot. In fact, even the most dovish Fed officials are already leaning towards a 0.5% rate hike. At the end of the year, we can expect a rate around 2.5%.   The US 10-year bond yields continue to strengthen on the back of these expectations. The US dollar is also strengthening and is already at its highest level since January 2017, surpassing 103 level.  Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields and the USD index on the daily chart   Earnings season is underway in equities Earnings season is in full swing. Amazon's results were disappointing. While revenue was up 7% reaching $116.4 billion in the first quarter (revenue was $108.5 billion in the same period last year), the company posted an total loss of $8.1 billion, which translated to a loss of $7.56 per share. This loss, however, is not due to operating activities, but it is the result of the revaluation of the equity investment in Rivian Automotive.   Facebook, on the other hand, surprised in a positive way posting unexpectedly strong user growth, a sign that its Instagram app is capable of competing with Tik Tok. However, the revenue growth of 6.6% was the lowest in the company's history.    Apple was also a positive surprise, reporting earnings per share of $1.52 (analysts' forecast was $1.43) and revenue growth of $97.3 billion, up 8.6% from the same period last year. However, the company warned that the closed operations in Russia, the lockdown in China due to the coronavirus and supply disruptions will negatively impact earnings in the next quarter.   Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart In terms of technical analysis, the US SP 500 index is in a downtrend and has reached a major support level on the daily chart last week, which is at 4,150. It has bounced upwards from this support to the resistance according to the 4 H chart which is 4,308 - 4,313. The next resistance according to the H4 chart is 4,360 - 4,365.  The strong resistance is at 4,500.   German DAX index German businessmen are optimistic about the development of the German economy in the next 6 months, as indicated by the Ifo Business Climate Index, which reached 91.8 for April (the expectation was 89.1). However, this did not have a significant effect on the movement of the index and it continued in its downward correction. Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The index is below the SMA 100 on both the daily chart and the H4 chart, confirming the bearish sentiment. The nearest support according to the H4 is 13,600 - 13,650. The resistance is 14,180 - 14,200. The next resistance is 14,592 - 14,632.   The euro has fallen below 1.05 The euro lost significantly last week. While the French election brought relief to the markets as Emmanuel Macron defended the presidency, geopolitical tensions in Ukraine continue to weigh heavily on the European currency. The strong dollar is also having an impact on the EUR/USD pair, pushing the pair down. The price has fallen below 1.05, the lowest level since January 2017.    Figure 4: EURUSD on H4 and daily chart The euro broke through the important support at 1.0650 - 1.071, which has now become the new resistance. The new support was formed in January 2017 and is around the level 1.0350 - 1.040.   Japan's central bank continues to support the fragile economy The Bank of Japan on Thursday reinforced its commitment to keep interest rates at very low levels by pledging to buy unlimited amounts of 10-year government bonds daily, sparking a fresh sell-off in the yen and reviving government bonds. With this commitment, the BOJ is trying to support a fragile economy, even as a surge in commodity prices is pushing the inflation up.   The decision puts Japan in the opposite position to other major economies, which are moving towards tighter monetary policy to combat soaring prices. Figure 5: The USD/JPY on the monthly and daily chart In fresh quarterly forecasts, the central bank has projected core consumer inflation to reach 1.9% in the current fiscal year and then ease to 1.1% in fiscal years 2023 and 2024, an indication that it views the current cost-push price increases as transitory.   In the wake of this decision, the Japanese yen has continued to weaken and has already surpassed the magical level 130 per dollar.   Strong dollar beats also gold Anticipation of aggressive Fed action against inflation, which is supporting the US dollar, is having a negative impact on gold. The rising US government bond yields are also a problem for the yellow metal. This has put gold under pressure, which peaked on Thursday when the price reached USD 1,872 per ounce of gold. But then the gold started to strengthen. Indeed, the decline in the US GDP may have been something of a warning to the Fed and prevent them from tightening the economy too quickly, which helped gold, in the short term, bounce off a strong support. Figure 6: The gold on H4 and daily chart Strong support for the gold is at $1,869 - $1,878 per ounce. There is a confluence of horizontal resistance and the SMA 100 moving average on the daily chart. The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is 1 907 - 1 910 USD per ounce. The strong resistance according to the daily chart is then 1 977 - 2 000 USD per ounce of gold. Moving averages on the H4 chart can also be used as a resistance. The orange line is the EMA 50 and the blue line is the SMA 100.  

Today’s focus is on Litecoin as price has started a new push higher after holding once again at 97.15 key support. Most coins are firm at this point in the day as buyer interest continues to pick up. We saw this yesterday, but things changed in the US session, and gains turned to losses. Could today be different? It’s a hard call as the FOMC is due in today’s US session, and a lot may come down to the FOMC statement and what it spells for rates moving forward. Recently crypto hasn’t reacted well to Fed policy adjustment news to help rein in inflation. Rates are expected to rise today, but could that be factored in? The real worry could be if the Fed commits to a very aggressive stance that exceeds market expectations. That could put pressure on risk markets to the USD and give the USD a boost. As noted, crypto has not reacted well in these situations, so it could be an interesting FOMC today. Back onto today’s focus, Litecoin looks to be setting up from a solid base with 97.15 key support holding for buyers since January this year. Since that point, we are yet to see a close below that support level. We have seen a few false starts off it, but while it continues to hold, there continues to be a floor for buyers. If things support crypto markets today after the FOMC, could we see today’s rally extend and break the current fast downtrend? Buyers do face some resistance at 100.35 and 103.90. If we see these levels cleared, that could be a good sign that buyers are trying to get a new up leg going. If we see a rally follow on, the next test will be the downtrend that caps the current descending triangle pattern. The CCI has also moved above the 0 point showing bullish conditions. We stress again today’s FOMC could have an impact on the current picture. The FOMC statement and federal funds rate is due at 4:00 am AEST, and the press conference follows at 4:30 am AEST. LiteCoin D1 Chart The post Crypto News: Is LiteCoin starting new bounce off key support? appeared first on Eightcap.

Today’s focus is on GBPUSD after its solid rally yesterday after markets surged to the USD after the FOMC statement suggested the Fed might not be as aggressive in its policy to combat inflation. The message also confirmed that the policy would do its best to help the US economy achieve a softish landing, and Powell did comment that inflation remains much too high. Let’s look at the GBPUSD. Price remains in a long-term downtrend. The last key leg we saw was a sharp down leg as the USD continued to fly higher over the previous week. Since the last low was put in on the 28th of April, we have seen a range develop, and that pattern was in place until yesterday, before buyers broke through it to the upside after the FMOC. This break has us thinking, can we see a new leg higher set up after this break? Price so far has been weaker today will sellers retracing over 50% of yesterday’s move. Buyers have been fighting back into today’s European session, and expectations are that the BOE may raise rates again today. Could this continue to give the Cable a boost and send price back up to yesterday’s high? A break and close above yesterday’s high could confirm a new up leg. A close back below the HL is a worry and could suggest that buyer momentum might now be that firm. If we do see a new close above yesterday’s highs and buyers can continue to hold momentum, we would be looking at the closest trend line as a possible higher target. Today’s BOE rates decision is at 9:00 pm AEST. Rates are expected to increase to 1%. GBPUSD D1 Chart The post Forex News: GBPUSD beats its range. Can buyers start a new leg higher? appeared first on Eightcap.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 3rd 2022 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT metals data is the recent decline in the Copper futures bets. The speculative net position in the Copper futures has fallen for two consecutive weeks and by a total of -19,408 contracts over that time-frame. This weakness has dropped the current standing for Copper net positions into a bearish position for a second straight week. Last week was the first time Copper has been in a bearish position since June 2nd of 2020, a span of ninety-nine weeks. This week’s further decline in speculator bets brings the current net standing (-15,623 contracts) to the lowest level in two years, dating back to May 5th of 2020. Weighing heavily on the Copper sentiment is the shut downs in China due to Covid-19 outbreaks, particularly in Shanghai and Beijing. China is among the largest producers of Copper in the world and is the largest consumer of Copper in the world with the red metal being used in numerous manufacturing processes, industries and electronics being produced in the country. Any prolonged slowdown in China economic activity will have an outsized effect on the current demand for Copper. The Copper price has pulled back recently with declines in each of the last four weeks that has taken approximately 10 percent off the futures price. Copper has been on a torrid bullish run that started in March 2020 when the pandemic burst open globally. Since the lows in March of 2020, Copper’s price rose by over 100 percent and now currently trades around the $4.25 per pound futures level. The only metals market we cover with higher speculator bets this week was Platinum (+816 contracts) while the markets with lower spec bets were Silver (-7,338 contracts), Gold (-18,856 contracts), Copper (-11,838 contracts) and Palladium (-245 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-03-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,751,564 2 321,701 6 -366,213 94 44,512 78 Gold 560,441 31 199,168 42 -231,852 55 32,684 57 Silver 137,692 5 28,068 50 -39,317 60 11,249 8 Copper 185,255 16 -15,623 31 10,080 66 5,543 57 Palladium 7,638 6 -2,752 6 2,455 90 297 61 Platinum 66,545 33 -1,541 1 -3,667 100 5,208 35 Natural Gas 1,138,319 12 -117,706 43 72,861 54 44,845 92 Brent 168,128 14 -27,318 65 26,014 37 1,304 27 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 700,856 22 190,402 77 -165,353 27 -25,049 29 Corn 1,513,880 23 501,865 94 -451,210 8 -50,655 14 Coffee 206,337 1 40,697 77 -43,007 28 2,310 5 Sugar 818,627 1 201,592 78 -236,394 23 34,802 51 Wheat 319,233 0 20,012 60 -14,225 30 -5,787 82   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 199,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -18,856 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 218,024 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 52.4 23.3 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.8 64.7 3.3 – Net Position: 199,168 -231,852 32,684 – Gross Longs: 293,439 130,795 51,270 – Gross Shorts: 94,271 362,647 18,586 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.1 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.1 55.4 57.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.3 17.9 -2.5   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 28,068 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,338 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,406 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.2 36.4 17.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 20.8 65.0 9.2 – Net Position: 28,068 -39,317 11,249 – Gross Longs: 56,764 50,184 23,860 – Gross Shorts: 28,696 89,501 12,611 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.3 60.3 8.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -19.8 24.8 -31.2   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -15,623 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11,838 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,785 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.4 46.7 9.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 43.8 41.2 6.7 – Net Position: -15,623 10,080 5,543 – Gross Longs: 65,590 86,458 18,009 – Gross Shorts: 81,213 76,378 12,466 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.1 66.4 57.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -30.6 30.7 -13.0   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,541 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 816 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,357 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 44.4 38.8 13.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.7 44.3 5.6 – Net Position: -1,541 -3,667 5,208 – Gross Longs: 29,516 25,830 8,956 – Gross Shorts: 31,057 29,497 3,748 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 1.2 100.0 34.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -30.5 32.3 -28.3   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,752 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -245 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,507 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.7 59.8 16.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.8 27.7 13.0 – Net Position: -2,752 2,455 297 – Gross Longs: 973 4,567 1,290 – Gross Shorts: 3,725 2,112 993 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.2 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 5.8 90.5 61.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.8 12.7 -38.9   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Things have taken a turn back to safe havens with heavy selling resuming into today’s European session. After a small push at a fightback, the floodgates reopened. Stock indices and Crypto markets have been the heaviest hit, with some coins dropping over 11% lower. Sellers haven’t overlooked Gold as sellers moved back into the yellow metal knocking back below 1862. We see a little bit on-demand around this area, but this may not offer much resistance if this level of selling continues. For now, price looks to have confirmed an LH, but will we see a new LL continuing the current trend with a new point of normal trend behaviour. Furthermore, a move below the trendline would also be a sign that the current fast downtrend controls the market. A lot will come down to USD demand and continued exit from risk assets as US recession fears continue. Gold D1 Chart The post CFD News: Gold, close to confirming new leg lower? appeared first on Eightcap.

Summary: How does dYdX work? A look into what a perpetual cryptocurrency trading exchange is. Advantages of investing in the dYdX crypto exchange. Past and future price performance. Read next: ($GARI) Gari Network's Future Looks Bright As Investors Await New Advancements.  dYdD is a decentralised trading platform that is used for cryptocurrency margin trading. Dydx is a decentralised trading platform that is used for cryptocurrency margin trading for assets such as ETH, BTC, SOL, DOT and more. The bulk of the trading happens on the Ethereum blockchain, however, with the recent launch of layer 2, the Dydx exchange can be used for inexpensive, instantly settled trades. Dydx has successfully filled a niche market in the world of cryptocurrencies. Since the launch of this platform in September 2021, they have added many features, including lending and borrowing services to decentralise the trading experience. The exchange has a market cap of $258.2 million, a circulating supply of 65569295 with a max of 1 billion. dYdX is a leading crypto exchange that supports perpetual trading. Dydx is a leading crypto exchange that supports perpetual trading. It trades on the ethereum block chain using smart contracts and no intermediaries. Perpetual trading on cryptocurrencies are financial derivatives that enable traders to bet on crypto asset price movements, using leverage without owning the underlying asset. Some advantages of using this method are: Increased flexibility of trades by allowing both long and short trades. Increased leverage. Dydx is aiming at trading for everyone. They are building an open platform for crypto financial products, which is powered by the Ethereum blockchain. dYdX works in the following way: The creation of smart contracts has allowed for cryptocurrency exchanges to create decentralised liquidity pools, collateralisation and lending across popular protocols like Uniswap, Sushi and Compound. dYdX took all of the best decentralised financial technologies and combined them to form a first-of-its-kind cryptocurrency derivatives exchange using crowd sourced liquidity only. To explain this concept more, it means that when you deposit collateral to open a leveraged trading position, you are borrowing from a decentralised liquidity pool that is funded entirely by other traders. Dydx Layer 1 blockchain: Layer 1 is a highly liquid, decentralised exchange for both crypto margin trading and for spot trading. On this layer it is possible to leverage up to 5x your position. As long as users collateralise correctly, it is fast and efficient to borrow funds for your positions. dYdX claims to have built the fastest and most powerful decentralised exchange ever through their layer 2 blockchain. Advantages of layer 2: No gas cost and lower fees: when users deposit to layer 2, the user will no longer be required to pay fees to miners. Fast withdrawals: layer 2 does not have a waiting period to withdraw funds. Security and privacy: increased security and privacy via zero-knowledge rollups*. Very fast: trades are instantly executed and confirmed on the blockchain within hours. Mobile friendly: can be used on any device thanks to upgrades. Cross-margining : users are able to access leverage across positions in multiple markets from a single account. USDC collateral: dYdX allows users to provide USDC as collateral in their trades. *Zero-knowledge rollups is a Layer 2 scalability solution that allows blockchains to validate transactions faster whilst ensuring gas fees remain low. How to trade perpetually with Dydx: Download the dYdX trading app and open it. Connect your crypto wallet to the app. Deposit funds into the wallet and then select the “trade” option. Open a trading position with selected leverage and limits. Use the app to track your position's performance. Read next: (SOL) Solana Coin Continues to Grow - Popular Altcoins, SOL: What Is It & How Does It Work?  The dYdX token, the platform gives dYdX tokens to its users in the form of generous rewards. Advantages of the dYdX token: dYdX liquidity staking pool: this feature is important for keeping the exchange alive and financially supported. Trading rewards: it is possible to earn dYdX tokens just by trading on the platform. Discounted trading fees: if users hold dYdX tokens in their wallet, they can receive a 3% discount on trading fees. Governance token: dydx is also used for governance of the protocol, which gives holders voting rights. PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE PRICE When the token was first launched the price spiked and showed promise, since then the price has been on a consistent downward trend. In general the crypto market is volatile, this is shown in the price changes for this cryptocurrency. Currently with the negative global investor sentiment, the price of cryptos have been falling in general over the past months, which could be a reason this tokens value is currently trading so low. The coin price is forecasted to increase in the future. In 2022, the price is expected to increase by 78% and is expected to continue on this upward trend for the next 5 years. dYdx cryptocurrency Price Chart Sources: academy.shrimp.io. Dydx.exchange, cryptoadventure.com, trading-education.com

After days of heavy selling, crypto markets have started to see signs of demand today, with most of the top 25 coins moving into the positive after being hammered within 24 hours ago. Today, things continued to look dire as coins continued to touch new monthly lows. KeeperDAO (RookUSD) continues to fight back from the 71.40 -76.80 area. This area has been showing demand and support for buyers since January. Sellers till this point haven’t been able to break through, pushing the downtrend to that next level lower. Buyers have rejected five attempts at beating the level. But they haven’t been able to get a new trend going as resistance at 142.20 has continued to halt their runs. Looking at the picture now, there are two obvious outcomes. 1, we see the demand area hold, and we see a new push higher from buyers. If buyers can reach that level again, the test will be at 142.20 resistance. 2, overall pressure returns to the crypto boards, and selling returns pushing price back into the demand area and possibly through it confirming a weekly continuation. RookUSD The post RookUSD, are buyers starting to reconfirm the demand area? appeared first on Eightcap.

Risk markets are seeing another session of aggressive selling. The selling so far is across multiple asset classes. It’s a real good old fashioned risk-off day so far. Until today the EURUSD looked to be holding up the best out of the three main risk currencies, but that’s all changed in today’s European session after sellers finally broke through support. Until today the EURUSD continued to hold its line ignoring the AUD and GBP making lower moves to the USD. 1.0490 continued to hold for buyers and even in today’s Asian session, this level remained in play. The AUD and GBP continued to hit new lower lows while the EUR held on. We started to think, is it EU rate raise expectations holding it up? That didn’t make real sense as both currencies saw rate raises recently but continued to move lower. This all changed today after sellers broke support and confirmed a breakout of the descending triangle pattern. These patterns in downtrends are normally seen as trend continuation patterns and this case is no different. While price remains below support we will continue to look for further lower prices and with the ongoing inflation worries and global recession fears, this could be a factor that maintains selling. There is talk of parity with the USD, could this be the start of the move that realise these calls? EURUSD D1 Chart The post Forex News: EURUSD, are we seeing a new breakout? appeared first on Eightcap.

Well, what can we say about this last week? It was a horrific week on the crypto boards, with most coins plunging. The selling got going last weekend and peaked with a real market crash on Thursday. 200 billion of value was wiped off just on Thursday’s session alone. Bitcoin hit 25,338 USD at its lowest point on Thursday, and Ethereum touched $1702, setting new year lows. The rout wasn’t just about those two. The top 25 index coin index we quote cashed by 45.18% to its low on Thursday. Why did this happen? As the week went on, a few stories started to emerge. UST was the main influence, and it had a catastrophic effect on Terra Luna, which we will get to later. UST is a stable coin; these coins are meant to be pegged in value to the USD and, in theory, should be at the 1:1 value. UST is a little different as it’s an algorithmic stable coin under-pinned by code rather than cash held in reserve. This is where the trouble began. As UST fell under $1 the cracks opened and fear set in. Selling accelerated, and its value slipped down to .41 cents. This had disastrous consequences for its sister currency Terra Luna which has a floating price and was designed to absorb UST price shocks. Terra crashed on UST failure to hold value and ended Thursday’s session under 1 US cent. We’re talking at 99% plunge! This was catastrophic for traders and investors that owned LUNA as many exchanges slowed to craw trying to deal with the mass of sell orders hitting the exchanges. Pressure on bitcoin, the Luna Foundation owned a mass of bitcoin used to shore up terra in times of crisis. Talk suggested large amounts had been sold to deal with the terra issue and this compounded/added to the panic selling that session. The story continues, tether the world’s largest stable coin, also dipped below $1 US, sending a shock through the markets of a contagion. This added to the panic. It’s difficult to tell what may happen next, but from watching the events this week, it’s important you remain vigilant as this volatility continues. I’m not an industry expert, but from watching the events this week, it’s something that came to my mind.This week’s focus is a sad one, but we can’t skip over Terra Luna. I’m not going to say much more on it as the meat is above. It’s a terrible event as, yes, some might think it’s cool to see markets destroyed, but there’s a personal loss in there as many investors believed in terra and now may face very unfortunate situations. The post Crypto Focus: Market meltdown continues as Terra (Luna) collapses appeared first on Eightcap.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Metals speculator bets overall were lower this week with four out of the five metals markets we cover seeing lower bets on the week. The metals markets are seeing a cool off in their speculative positions as well as their prices as most of these markets are down from a short-term peak in early March. The only market with higher speculator bets this week was Platinum (2,904 contracts). The markets with declining speculator bets this week were Silver (-8,986 contracts), Gold (-5,853 contracts), Copper (-7,003 contracts) and Palladium (-493 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-10-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index WTI Crude 1,736,594 0 310,803 2 -354,479 98 43,676 77 Gold 571,447 34 193,315 40 -227,756 57 34,441 57 Silver 142,752 9 19,082 41 -30,519 69 11,437 9 Copper 184,502 15 -22,626 26 19,249 73 3,377 45 Palladium 8,832 11 -3,245 3 3,434 96 -189 33 Platinum 66,064 32 1,363 5 -5,373 98 4,010 18 Natural Gas 1,108,451 6 -112,529 45 64,006 51 48,523 100 Brent 173,911 19 -31,215 59 30,562 44 653 18 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 694,454 20 174,608 72 -147,698 33 -26,910 26 Corn 1,510,783 23 470,908 90 -415,345 13 -55,563 11 Coffee 212,659 5 32,555 69 -33,559 37 1,004 0 Sugar 797,453 0 187,185 75 -220,611 26 33,426 49 Wheat 308,326 0 21,686 48 -17,779 34 -3,907 92   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 193,315 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,853 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 199,168 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 50.6 23.1 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.7 63.0 3.1 – Net Position: 193,315 -227,756 34,441 – Gross Longs: 288,947 132,251 52,098 – Gross Shorts: 95,632 360,007 17,657 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 3.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.9 56.8 57.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -24.1 21.0 19.4   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 19,082 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -8,986 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,068 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.9 36.9 17.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.5 58.3 9.4 – Net Position: 19,082 -30,519 11,437 – Gross Longs: 59,829 52,637 24,862 – Gross Shorts: 40,747 83,156 13,425 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 41.4 69.0 9.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -29.1 30.3 -9.9   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -22,626 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,003 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,623 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.2 50.6 9.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 43.4 40.1 7.5 – Net Position: -22,626 19,249 3,377 – Gross Longs: 57,510 93,318 17,183 – Gross Shorts: 80,136 74,069 13,806 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.1 72.7 44.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -38.3 38.9 -19.5   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 1,363 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,904 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,541 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.6 39.8 12.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.5 47.9 6.1 – Net Position: 1,363 -5,373 4,010 – Gross Longs: 28,774 26,293 8,029 – Gross Shorts: 27,411 31,666 4,019 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 5.3 97.6 17.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.1 21.2 -38.4   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,245 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -493 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,752 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.5 59.0 11.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.2 20.1 13.3 – Net Position: -3,245 3,434 -189 – Gross Longs: 1,013 5,209 982 – Gross Shorts: 4,258 1,775 1,171 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.9 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.0 96.1 32.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.1 11.8 -48.4   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Bonds market speculator bets mostly rose this week as seven out of the eight bond markets we cover saw higher positioning this week. Most of these markets are deeply bearish (speculator levels and price levels) as bond markets have been declining mightily in this higher interest rate environment this year. This week’s rise in bond speculator bets will likely be short-lived although there have been increasing calls that bond markets may have hit or are approaching a short term bottom. Overall, the markets with higher speculator bets this week were 2-Year Bond (2,342 contracts), Eurodollar (87,521 contracts), 10-Year Bond (61,565 contracts), Ultra 10-Year (15,302 contracts), Long US Bond (1,942 contracts), Fed Funds (104,415 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (7,666 contracts). The only market with declining speculator bets this week was the 5-Year Bond (-6,738 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend May-10-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index Eurodollar 10,439,124 33 -2,600,587 3 3,030,504 97 -429,917 10 FedFunds 1,750,404 55 49,162 46 -49,266 54 104 60 2-Year 2,264,774 21 -126,829 57 201,609 64 -74,780 17 Long T-Bond 1,207,560 50 15,453 90 -4,991 19 -10,462 44 10-Year 3,722,697 45 -85,972 59 268,376 54 -182,404 36 5-Year 3,813,677 38 -325,674 26 502,383 75 -176,709 32   3-Month Eurodollars Futures: The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,600,587 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 87,521 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,688,108 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent. 3-Month Eurodollars Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.4 75.3 4.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.3 46.3 8.2 – Net Position: -2,600,587 3,030,504 -429,917 – Gross Longs: 356,101 7,861,403 422,820 – Gross Shorts: 2,956,688 4,830,899 852,737 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.3 96.6 9.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.3 3.2 -0.4   30-Day Federal Funds Futures: The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 49,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 104,415 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -55,253 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. 30-Day Federal Funds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.9 75.2 2.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 3.1 78.0 2.3 – Net Position: 49,162 -49,266 104 – Gross Longs: 103,238 1,316,147 39,627 – Gross Shorts: 54,076 1,365,413 39,523 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.7 53.9 60.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.8 -10.3 53.3   2-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -126,829 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,342 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -129,171 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. 2-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.1 77.3 6.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.7 68.4 9.5 – Net Position: -126,829 201,609 -74,780 – Gross Longs: 275,153 1,751,572 140,782 – Gross Shorts: 401,982 1,549,963 215,562 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.7 63.9 17.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.7 8.7 11.6   5-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -325,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,738 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -318,936 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent. 5-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.6 83.0 7.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.2 69.9 11.8 – Net Position: -325,674 502,383 -176,709 – Gross Longs: 291,527 3,167,247 271,640 – Gross Shorts: 617,201 2,664,864 448,349 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.1 74.5 32.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.3 -11.7 16.6   10-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -85,972 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 61,565 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -147,537 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent. 10-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.9 76.5 8.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.2 69.2 13.3 – Net Position: -85,972 268,376 -182,404 – Gross Longs: 406,123 2,846,309 313,590 – Gross Shorts: 492,095 2,577,933 495,994 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.4 53.8 36.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 59.4 -46.2 -0.3   Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures: The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -95,416 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 15,302 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -110,718 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent. Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.5 82.9 11.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.2 66.3 20.3 – Net Position: -95,416 207,218 -111,802 – Gross Longs: 56,783 1,034,536 141,487 – Gross Shorts: 152,199 827,318 253,289 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 4.0 93.4 48.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.7 0.4 12.4   US Treasury Bonds Futures: The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,453 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,942 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,511 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.9 72.1 13.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.6 72.5 13.8 – Net Position: 15,453 -4,991 -10,462 – Gross Longs: 131,916 870,932 156,698 – Gross Shorts: 116,463 875,923 167,160 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 89.6 18.5 44.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.2 -0.6 1.9   Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures: The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -311,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -319,179 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent. Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.6 84.6 11.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.2 61.6 9.8 – Net Position: -311,513 290,655 20,858 – Gross Longs: 45,084 1,069,894 144,208 – Gross Shorts: 356,597 779,239 123,350 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.1 57.2 43.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.9 0.8 -9.9   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

The Swing Overview - Week 18 In the war against rising inflation, central banks in the US, the UK and Australia raised interest rates this week. Britain, meanwhile, warned of the risk of a recession. The CNB also raised rates. They have thus reached their highest levels since 1999. The key interest rate in the Czech Republic is now 5.75%.   The main stock indices have weakened strongly in response to the monetary tightening policies of the major economies and are at significant support levels. The negative sentiment on the indices is confirmed by the VIX fear indicator, which is above 30. The US dollar, on the other hand, continues to ride on the winning wave. The Fed raised interest rates by 0.5% The Fed raised rates by 0.5% points on Wednesday as expected, the highest jump in 22 years. This took the interest rate to 1%. The Fed chief announced that further half a percentage point rate hikes will continue at the next meetings in June and July. Powell also stated that the US economy is doing well and that it can withstand interest rate hikes without the risk of a recession and a significant increase in unemployment.   In addition to the rate hike, the Fed announced that in June it would begin reducing the assets on the bank's balance sheet that the central bank had accumulated during the pandemic. In June, July and August, the Fed will sell $45 billion of assets a month, and starting in September it will sell $95 billion a month.   Although Powell ruled out a 0.75% rate hike at the next meetings, interest rate futures markets continue to expect that possibility with about an 80% probability. Figure 1: The CME Fed Watch tool projections of the target interest rate for the next Fed meeting on June 15, 2022 Based on these expectations, US 10-year Treasury yields continue to strengthen and have surpassed the 3% mark. The US dollar is also strengthening and it is at the highest level since January 2017 and approaching 104.  Figure 2: The US 10-year bond yields and the USD index on the daily chart   Equity indices remain under pressure The SP 500 index initially rallied strongly following the announcement of the rate hike, after Powell ruled out a 0.75% rate hike in subsequent meetings. However, markets gave back all the gains the following day as interest rate futures continue to estimate an 80% probability that the next rate hike, which will take place in June 2022, will be 0.75%.   Figure 3: SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart Thus, in terms of technical analysis, the US SP 500 index continues to move in a downtrend below both the SMA 100 and EMA 50 moving averages with resistance, according to the 4 H chart, at 4,308 - 4,313. The next resistance, according to the H4 chart, is 4,360 - 4,365.  Strong resistance is at 4,500. The current support is 4 070 - 4 100.   German DAX index German industrial orders fell by 4.7% in March, which is more than expected. A major contributor to this negative result was a reduction in orders from abroad as the war in Ukraine hit demand in the manufacturing sector. The outlook is negative and some analysts suggest that the German economy is heading into recession. The reasons are the war in Ukraine, problems in supply chains and high inflation. The Dax index confirms these negative outlooks with a downward trend. Figure 4: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The index continues to move below the SMA 100 on the daily chart and on the H4 chart, confirming the bearish sentiment. The nearest support according to the H4 is 13,600 - 13,650. Resistance is 14,300 - 14,330. The next resistance is 14,592 - 14,632.   The outlook for the euro remains negative HSBC bank on Thursday significantly cut its forecast for the euro, saying it expects the euro to weaken to parity against the US dollar this year, the first major investment bank to make such a prediction.   The post-pandemic economic environment, which has been damaged by the ongoing war in Ukraine, looks challenging for the European economy, potentially forcing the European Central Bank to tighten policy slowly compared to the U.S. Federal Reserve, which has begun an aggressive rate-hiking cycle.  This has raised the prospect of the single currency falling to levels not seen in two decades. HSBC said it expects the move to happen by the fourth quarter of 2022.   ECB board member Isabel Schnabel said this week that rates may need to be raised as early as July. The precursor to any rate hike must be an end to bond purchases and that could come in late June. Markets are pricing in a 90 basis point tightening in rates this year.   Figure 5: The EURUSD on H4 and daily chart The EUR/USD pair is in a clear downtrend with resistance at 1.0650 - 1.071. The important support is 1.05, but it has already been tested several times and could be broken soon. The next support is from January 2017 at around 1.0350 - 1.040.   The Czech koruna got another injection in the form of an interest rate hike The CNB raised the interest rate by 0.75%, which exceeded analysts' expectations who projected a 0.50% rise. The current rate now stands at 5.75%, the highest since 1999. Consumer price growth continues to rise and by raising the interest rate the central bank is trying to dampen this growth by raising the interest rate. Inflation is expected to reach 15% by mid-year. The CNB has an inflation target of 2% and inflation is expected to reach these levels in 2024.   The problem is economic growth, which is slowing significantly.  But maintaining price stability is clearly more important than the negative effects of higher rates on the real economy.  Figure 6: The USD/CZK and the EUR/CZK on the daily chart The Czech koruna has so far done best on the pair with the euro, as interest rates are zero on the euro. The koruna has been weakening significantly on the USD pair in recent days. The current significant resistance on the USD/CZK is CZK 23.50 per dollar and on the EUR/CZK it is 24.70.    Bank of England warned of recession and more than 10% inflation The Bank of England sent out a strong warning that Britain faces the twin dangers of recession and inflation above 10% when it raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point to 1% on Thursday. The pound fell more than a cent against the US dollar and hit its lowest level since mid-2020, below $1.24, as the gloominess of the BoE's new forecasts for the world's fifth-largest economy caught investors off guard.    The BoE also said it was also concerned about the impact of renewed COVID-19 lockdowns in China, which threaten to hit supply chains again and increase inflationary pressures.    The BoE's rate hike was the fourth since December, the fastest pace of policy tightening in 25 years. The central bank also revised up its price growth forecasts, which suggest it will peak above 10% in the final three months of this year. Previously, it had expected it to peak at around 8% in April. Markets expect interest rates to reach 2-2.25% by the end of 2022.  Figure 7: The GBP/USD on weekly and daily charts In terms of technical analysis, the GBP/USD is in a downtrend. The pound is trading at levels below 1.24 pounds per dollar and has reached to the support of 1.225-1.2330. The nearest resistance according to the weekly chart is at 1.2700-1.2750.   

Looking at the USDCAD on the daily chart traders, could we see a new move lower if sellers can reverse today’s rally and break last Friday’s low? We are looking for that low break as it will back up a break of the fast trend and confirm the current bearish CCI. Risk markets look to be back in vogue on the short term, but this could be a short term move as overall inflation has not gone anywhere. There could be a case to put forward that rate rises could start to be factored in, and that expectation could outweigh the actual, but from recent history, the USD has been performing since 2021, and yes, we could see an extended retracement in the market, but fundamentals would need to change too dramatically to change the overall trend. Oil is another factor for this pair, and for now, buyers are trimming earlier losses. So we will continue to watch this pair’s price action, and if we do see a new break below last Friday’s low, we will look to see if it can turn into a new leg lower. USDCAD D1 Chart The post Forex News: USDCAD, could a new push lower be on the cards? appeared first on Eightcap.

The Swing Overview - Week 19 Stock indices continued to weaken strongly last week, while the US dollar has already surpassed the mark 104 and is at 20-year highs. However, a set of important data is behind us, which could bring some temporary relief to the equity markets. The Czech koruna weakened sharply after the appointment of the new CNB Governor Ales Michl, who is a proponent of a dovish approach. Thus, the rise in interest rates in the Czech Republic appears to be close to its peak.   Macroeconomic data The US consumer inflation for April was reported on Wednesday, which came in at 8.3% on year-on-year basis. Analysts were expecting inflation to be 8.1%. Although the figure achieved was higher than expectations, it was still lower than the 8.5% inflation figure achieved in March. On a month-on-month basis, the price increase in April was 0.3%, significantly lower than in March when prices rose by 1.5%.   On Thursday, industrial inflation was reported at 8.8% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month for April.   The positive thing about this data is that inflation declined from previous readings. However, it is important to note that the year-on-year comparison is based on data where inflation was also higher in the previous year due to the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic.   The Fed chief reiterated that he expects another 0.50% point rise in interest rates at the next two Fed meetings. He also mentioned that a higher rate hike cannot be ruled out if necessary.   The US 10-year bond yields came down from their peak and made a slight correction. However, the US dollar continued to strengthen and broke the resistance at 104. The dollar is thus at 20-year highs. Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields and USD index on the daily chart   Equity indices heavily oversold The strong dollar, rising US bond yields, the war in Ukraine and the effects of the lockdown in China were the main reasons for the decline in equity indices. The SP 500 index hit 3,860, the lowest level since March 2021. This is also where long-term support is. However, the important macro data is behind us and the market has processed all the available fundamental information. This could bring temporary relief to the markets and the index could make an upward correction. The fall in 10-year bond yields, gives this move some boost as well.   Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart However, from a technical analysis perspective, the US SP 500 index remains in a current downtrend as the markets have formed lower low and is also below both the SMA 100 and EMA 50 moving averages on the H4 and daily charts. The nearest resistance is 4040 - 4070. The next resistance is at 4,140 and especially 4,293 - 4,300. The support is at 3,860 - 3,900.   German DAX index In macroeconomic data, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment for May was reported last week and showed a reading of -34.3, an improvement from the previous month's reading of -41.0. Inflation in Germany for April is at 7.4% on year-on-year basis and up 0.8% from March (the previous month's increase was 2.5%). Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The index continues to move in a downtrend along with the major world indices. The price has reached the SMA 100 moving average on the H4 chart, which tends to signal resistance in a downtrend. The price is moving below the SMA 100 on both the daily chart and the H4 chart, confirming the bearish sentiment. The nearest support according to the H4 is 13,600 - 13,650. The resistance is 14,300 - 14,330. The next resistance is 14,592 - 14,632.   The big sell-off in the euro continues The euro fell to 1.0356 against the dollar, the lowest value since January 2017. This value is also an area of significant support where price could stall. Fundamentally, the euro's depreciation is due to the strong dollar and the Fed's hawkish policy, which contrasts with the ECB's policy of not raising rates yet.    Figure 4: The EURUSD on H4 and daily chart Eurozone inflation data will be reported next week, which could be an important catalyst for further movement. The significant support is priced around 1.0350 - 1.040. The current resistance is at 1.05.   Czech koruna weakened strongly on the new governor appointment The President Miloš Zeman surprised with the appointment of Ales Michl for the governor of the CNB. Michl is known for his dovish views, having spoken out against raising interest rates at recent meetings. His appointment was welcomed in the markets by a strong depreciation of the Czech koruna. However, the bank later intervened in the markets by selling part of its foreign exchange reserves to prevent further depreciation of the Czech koruna.   It is important to know that the Bank's monetary policy is decided by the seven-member Bank Board. So far, the proportion for voting on rate hikes has been 5:2. But by the end of June, the president must appoint 3 new board members. This could significantly change the voting ratio on the board and set a new course for the bank's policy, which would mean a halt to the rise in interest rates. However, it is likely that at the June board meeting the board, still with the old composition, will decide on further interest rate increases. Figure 5: The USD/CZK and the EUR/CZK on the daily chart The Czech koruna has reached 24.36 against the dollar and 25.47 against the euro, from which it started to descend after the CNB interventions.  

Today we are looking at the GER30 daily as buyer momentum continues to drive forward this week, with price breaking the medium-term downtrend in today’s session. It’s been a  decent week so far for stock indexes. Buyers continue to hold sway with another solid rally in today’s session. Buying is widespread across the CFD indexes and is part of a broader risk on the move that has seen risk currencies and crypto coins pushing into the green. The GER30, after setting its last LL in March, has shown us a bullish signal with a new HL in May. Since that point, we have seen the current rally test and break the medium-term downtrend. These are good signs from buyers at the moment, but we would like to see the next step taken with a new HH put in. We would also like to see that HH hit above the last LH, which would continue to confirm the trend break. If buyers can achieve this, we would then like to see a new HL maintaining a new normal short-term uptrend. 14,555 could come in as resistance if reached, but new HLs after retracements will keep the idea in play. A failure to set a new HH and a slip back into the downtrend is a worry. A new move lower that breaks the last HL basically discounts the bullish signs we are watching and discussing above. GER30 D1 Chart The post CFD News: GER30 could be starting a new leg higher. appeared first on Eightcap.

Hi traders, today we’re seeing a similar pattern across several coins. After yesterday’s failed lower break attempt, ranges have developed. We’re seeing this pattern on a few, BTC, BNB, ETH, SOL, ADA, and XRP. We’ve zeroed in on Bitcoin as on the 4-hour chart. The range is quite symmetrical. We saw 29K come in yesterday as a demand point, and for now, price continues to hold above. The range can be broken down into inside action and overall action. On the side, we are looking at two possible directions. One, we see price maintain the pattern and move back to the bottom of the range. Two buyers regain momentum as we see a test or break of the range roof. If number two occurs, that will line up with the overall action idea of a new breakout due to steady demand seen yesterday rejecting seller attempts to break lower. We can also see a trend break on the four-hour chart and a fast trend break on the daily. If sellers can not only move back to the range base but break through it, we would look at the 27,600 area to possible offer buyer resistance If buyers clear the range, we could see resistance develop from 32,200. On the other side, if sellers can not only move back to the range base but break through it, we would look at the 27,600 area to possible offer buyer resistance. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM It will be interesting to see which side wins this battle. Hoping all of our readers have a wonderful weekend. Bitcoin 4H Chart The post Crypto News: Bitcoin is range-bound. Will we see a break today? appeared first on Eightcap.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT metals data is the recent decrease in the Gold and Copper speculative positions. Gold speculator bets fell this week for the fifth straight week and for the eighth time in the past ten weeks as sentiment for the shiny metal has dulled over the past few months. This latest 5-week decline has amounted to a total reduction of -78,927 contracts from the speculator position. The current speculator standing for Gold remains in bullish position but has descended to lowest level of the past fifteen weeks (at +175,360 contracts), dating back to early February. Despite the speculator decline, the gold price rebounded by over 1 percent this week (close near $1,842 per ounce) following four straight weeks of decline that brought the Gold futures price down from a high of over $2,000 per ounce in mid-April to roughly $1,800 per ounce to close out last week. Copper speculator bets have also cooled over the past couple months and fell this week for the sixth consecutive week. This decline has taken a whopping -60,550 contracts off the speculator position and has dropped the spec level from +36,142 contracts on April 5th to -24,408 contracts this week. This week’s total marks the lowest level for Copper bets in the past 109 weeks, dating back to April 14th of 2020. The slowdown in the Chinese economy and the Covid shutdowns in China have put a dent in the Copper sentiment as China is one of the largest world producers of Copper and is the largest consumer of Copper in the world. Overall, the markets with higher speculator bets this week were just Platinum (840 contracts) and Palladium (30 contracts). The markets with declining speculator bets this week were Gold (-17,955 contracts), Silver (-2,968 contracts) and Copper (-1,782 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-17-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,730,665 0 325,637 7 -363,869 95 38,232 69 Gold 555,756 30 175,360 33 -206,879 65 31,519 48 Silver 144,534 11 16,114 38 -24,841 75 8,727 0 Copper 189,483 19 -24,408 25 23,059 75 1,349 33 Palladium 9,114 13 -3,215 3 3,621 97 -406 20 Platinum 65,926 32 2,203 7 -6,697 96 4,494 25 Natural Gas 1,118,417 8 -115,012 44 64,340 51 50,672 100 Brent 176,861 21 -34,867 53 32,127 47 2,740 46 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 709,144 24 183,647 73 -156,937 33 -26,710 26 Corn 1,548,438 29 473,743 91 -424,756 11 -48,987 15 Coffee 206,106 0 38,487 72 -40,949 32 2,462 13 Sugar 825,281 6 196,630 77 -245,374 22 48,744 68 Wheat 326,651 8 28,806 57 -26,020 23 -2,786 98   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 175,360 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -17,955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 193,315 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 50.9 24.8 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.4 62.0 3.4 – Net Position: 175,360 -206,879 31,519 – Gross Longs: 283,011 137,687 50,588 – Gross Shorts: 107,651 344,566 19,069 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.6 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.2 64.8 48.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -26.3 26.1 -5.4   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,114 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,968 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,082 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.4 37.6 16.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.3 54.7 10.0 – Net Position: 16,114 -24,841 8,727 – Gross Longs: 59,857 54,287 23,121 – Gross Shorts: 43,743 79,128 14,394 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.4 74.5 0.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -28.8 34.5 -34.4   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -24,408 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,782 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,626 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.1 53.6 8.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.9 41.4 7.6 – Net Position: -24,408 23,059 1,349 – Gross Longs: 53,159 101,533 15,747 – Gross Shorts: 77,567 78,474 14,398 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 24.8 75.3 33.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -43.6 45.4 -32.1   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 2,203 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 840 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,363 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.9 39.4 12.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.5 49.6 5.4 – Net Position: 2,203 -6,697 4,494 – Gross Longs: 28,253 26,002 8,051 – Gross Shorts: 26,050 32,699 3,557 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 6.5 95.8 24.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.0 15.5 -29.7   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 30 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,245 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.9 62.7 11.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.2 22.9 15.7 – Net Position: -3,215 3,621 -406 – Gross Longs: 996 5,712 1,021 – Gross Shorts: 4,211 2,091 1,427 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.2 97.1 20.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.7 12.4 -58.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT metals data is the recent decrease in the Gold and Copper speculative positions. Gold speculator bets fell this week for the fifth straight week and for the eighth time in the past ten weeks as sentiment for the shiny metal has dulled over the past few months. This latest 5-week decline has amounted to a total reduction of -78,927 contracts from the speculator position. The current speculator standing for Gold remains in bullish position but has descended to lowest level of the past fifteen weeks (at +175,360 contracts), dating back to early February. Despite the speculator decline, the gold price rebounded by over 1 percent this week (close near $1,842 per ounce) following four straight weeks of decline that brought the Gold futures price down from a high of over $2,000 per ounce in mid-April to roughly $1,800 per ounce to close out last week. Copper speculator bets have also cooled over the past couple months and fell this week for the sixth consecutive week. This decline has taken a whopping -60,550 contracts off the speculator position and has dropped the spec level from +36,142 contracts on April 5th to -24,408 contracts this week. This week’s total marks the lowest level for Copper bets in the past 109 weeks, dating back to April 14th of 2020. The slowdown in the Chinese economy and the Covid shutdowns in China have put a dent in the Copper sentiment as China is one of the largest world producers of Copper and is the largest consumer of Copper in the world. Overall, the markets with higher speculator bets this week were just Platinum (840 contracts) and Palladium (30 contracts). The markets with declining speculator bets this week were Gold (-17,955 contracts), Silver (-2,968 contracts) and Copper (-1,782 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-17-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index WTI Crude 1,730,665 0 325,637 7 -363,869 95 38,232 69 Gold 555,756 30 175,360 33 -206,879 65 31,519 48 Silver 144,534 11 16,114 38 -24,841 75 8,727 0 Copper 189,483 19 -24,408 25 23,059 75 1,349 33 Palladium 9,114 13 -3,215 3 3,621 97 -406 20 Platinum 65,926 32 2,203 7 -6,697 96 4,494 25 Natural Gas 1,118,417 8 -115,012 44 64,340 51 50,672 100 Brent 176,861 21 -34,867 53 32,127 47 2,740 46 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 709,144 24 183,647 73 -156,937 33 -26,710 26 Corn 1,548,438 29 473,743 91 -424,756 11 -48,987 15 Coffee 206,106 0 38,487 72 -40,949 32 2,462 13 Sugar 825,281 6 196,630 77 -245,374 22 48,744 68 Wheat 326,651 8 28,806 57 -26,020 23 -2,786 98   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 175,360 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -17,955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 193,315 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 50.9 24.8 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.4 62.0 3.4 – Net Position: 175,360 -206,879 31,519 – Gross Longs: 283,011 137,687 50,588 – Gross Shorts: 107,651 344,566 19,069 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.6 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.2 64.8 48.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -26.3 26.1 -5.4   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,114 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,968 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,082 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.4 37.6 16.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.3 54.7 10.0 – Net Position: 16,114 -24,841 8,727 – Gross Longs: 59,857 54,287 23,121 – Gross Shorts: 43,743 79,128 14,394 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.4 74.5 0.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -28.8 34.5 -34.4   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -24,408 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,782 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,626 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.1 53.6 8.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.9 41.4 7.6 – Net Position: -24,408 23,059 1,349 – Gross Longs: 53,159 101,533 15,747 – Gross Shorts: 77,567 78,474 14,398 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 24.8 75.3 33.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -43.6 45.4 -32.1   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 2,203 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 840 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,363 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.9 39.4 12.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.5 49.6 5.4 – Net Position: 2,203 -6,697 4,494 – Gross Longs: 28,253 26,002 8,051 – Gross Shorts: 26,050 32,699 3,557 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 6.5 95.8 24.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.0 15.5 -29.7   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 30 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,245 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.9 62.7 11.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.2 22.9 15.7 – Net Position: -3,215 3,621 -406 – Gross Longs: 996 5,712 1,021 – Gross Shorts: 4,211 2,091 1,427 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.2 97.1 20.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.7 12.4 -58.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Bonds market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had lower positioning this week. Most of these markets remain bearish (speculator levels and price levels) in the higher interest rate environment of 2022. The exceptions in the COT speculator positioning are the Fed Funds positions which recently turned positive in early April and have maintained a small bullish level in six out of the past seven weeks. The US Treasury Bond positions also turned positive in early March and have also had a small bullish position in nine out of the past eleven weeks. Overall, the bond markets with higher speculator bets for this week were Long US Bond (16,554 contracts), 5-Year Bond (65,450 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (16,954 contracts). The markets with declining speculator bets this week were the 2-Year Bond (-7,808 contracts), Eurodollar (-273,864 contracts), 10-Year Bond (-74,119 contracts), Ultra 10-Year (-2,421 contracts) and the Fed Funds (-147 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend May-17-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index Eurodollar 10,381,883 32 -2,874,451 0 3,300,959 100 -426,508 11 FedFunds 1,796,405 58 49,015 46 -45,484 54 -3,531 51 2-Year 2,376,024 26 -134,637 55 209,074 66 -74,437 18 Long T-Bond 1,244,823 57 32,007 95 -14,575 15 -17,432 39 10-Year 3,666,416 41 -160,091 48 318,592 60 -158,501 42 5-Year 3,791,540 37 -260,224 38 417,629 64 -157,405 38   3-Month Eurodollars Futures: The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,874,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -273,864 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,600,587 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.6 percent. 3-Month Eurodollars Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.2 76.0 3.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.9 44.2 7.8 – Net Position: -2,874,451 3,300,959 -426,508 – Gross Longs: 336,958 7,889,274 386,384 – Gross Shorts: 3,211,409 4,588,315 812,892 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 10.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.5 5.9 4.6   30-Day Federal Funds Futures: The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 49,015 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -147 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,162 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent. 30-Day Federal Funds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.6 75.5 2.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 2.8 78.0 2.3 – Net Position: 49,015 -45,484 -3,531 – Gross Longs: 100,043 1,355,889 37,674 – Gross Shorts: 51,028 1,401,373 41,205 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.7 54.4 50.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.6 -5.3 16.5   2-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -134,637 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,808 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -126,829 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent. 2-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.0 76.6 5.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.6 67.8 8.9 – Net Position: -134,637 209,074 -74,437 – Gross Longs: 307,951 1,818,876 137,690 – Gross Shorts: 442,588 1,609,802 212,127 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.1 65.6 17.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -12.6 8.0 10.7   5-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -260,224 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 65,450 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -325,674 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent. 5-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.9 81.1 7.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.7 70.1 11.7 – Net Position: -260,224 417,629 -157,405 – Gross Longs: 298,615 3,074,092 284,595 – Gross Shorts: 558,839 2,656,463 442,000 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 37.5 64.2 37.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.7 -16.5 15.8   10-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -160,091 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -74,119 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -85,972 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent. 10-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.6 76.9 8.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.9 68.2 13.2 – Net Position: -160,091 318,592 -158,501 – Gross Longs: 314,613 2,819,008 325,049 – Gross Shorts: 474,704 2,500,416 483,550 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 48.1 59.7 42.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 30.8 -29.7 11.0   Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures: The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -97,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,421 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -95,416 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent. Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.6 81.6 12.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.6 65.2 20.7 – Net Position: -97,837 200,995 -103,158 – Gross Longs: 56,209 1,000,137 150,063 – Gross Shorts: 154,046 799,142 253,221 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.4 91.8 53.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.6 -8.2 20.7   US Treasury Bonds Futures: The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 32,007 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 16,554 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,453 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.7 72.5 12.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.2 73.6 13.7 – Net Position: 32,007 -14,575 -17,432 – Gross Longs: 146,002 902,140 152,520 – Gross Shorts: 113,995 916,715 169,952 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 95.0 15.5 38.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.0 -7.4 -6.1   Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures: The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -294,559 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 16,954 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -311,513 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.7 81.8 11.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.3 61.5 9.3 – Net Position: -294,559 264,222 30,337 – Gross Longs: 48,033 1,065,877 151,667 – Gross Shorts: 342,592 801,655 121,330 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.1 44.2 50.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 14.8 -21.4 5.2   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Risk majors followed up their fightback last Friday with more solid gains into Monday’s session. The AUD has seen solid gains after the weekend’s Federal election, which saw a change of government. The EUR hasn’t seen those two gains but has still beat last week’s high. The breakout above last week’s high drew our attention to the GBPUSD today. This, for now, looks like a new continuation higher and maintains the new fast uptrend that we have seen form since buyers broke the last fast downtrend. We can also see a V reversal pattern forming, which is good to see in new emerging fast trends. Looking forward, we can see price moving into a supply area, and a break of the upper range would be a solid sign to continue the bull’s case. Above that, if buyers can maintain the move, we will be looking to the orange box that lines up with the medium-term trend line and if buyers can beat that area. Later today, BOE Governor Baily will speak at 12:15 am AEST GBPUSD D1 chart The post Forex News: GBPUSD breakout watch. appeared first on Eightcap.

Today we’re looking at AVAXUSD as price remains in a solid-looking downtrend. We are watching a consolidation pattern that could be a descending triangle or a wedge type pattern in the existing trend. The key for us is at 28 support. If sellers break this level, the continuation could be on, and we would like to see a new LL set to show normal pattern of trend. If buyers can continue to hold 28 and above, this could be a worry for short term seller momentum that was set with a break of yesterday’s low this morning. This pattern is also seen on SOLUSD, and other coins in the top 10 remain range-bound. It’s really up to sellers now if they want to take this trend lower. The Daily AVAX chart is below and for more information on this idea please feel free to check out our market the video is listed below the chart. AVAXUSD Market Update Video powered by TradingView The post Crypto Update: AVAXUSD, are sellers planning a new bear raid? appeared first on Eightcap.

Today’s update focuses on BTCUSD as price remains fixed in a pennant consolidation pattern. With the Medium-term trend and possibly the longer-term trend lower, you could lean toward this being a potential continuation pattern, but as noted in the video, we defiantly think it’s essential to wait for a clear breakout before thinking about picking a direction. In today’s European session, selling pressure has ramped up, and we see some solid selling across crypto boards. BTC is now 1.76% lower after trading in the positive earlier in the day. Short-term support is seen at 29,000. If you’re looking for a lower breakout and continuation, a break of this level is a step in the right direction. ETHUSD also had the same pattern, but sellers look to be on the way to confirming a new lower breakout. We will keep an eye on the crypto boards today to see if these moves continue. (Please check our market update video power by TradingView below the BTCUSD chart) BTCUSD D1 Chart BTCUSD Video Update The post BTCUSD are we close to seeing some direction? appeared first on Eightcap.

Another lower week traders as the top 10 and top 25 lost further gains continuing the current downtrend. If this week closes lower, that will set 8 weekly lower bars in a row. We discussed a few coins this week, emphasising continuation patterns that formed during the week. We did see some confirmations yesterday as sellers got things back on their terms in the European session. BTC fought back from lows abut sellers regained control on Friday’s session. AVAX was one of the significant coins hardest hit as it set new monthly lows. One positive is that the top 10 didn’t retest their May lows despite most hitting new weekly lows. As noted, buyers resisted the pressure with ranges and consolidations ruling before Thursday’s push lower. ETH seen to be dropping over merger frustration. Confidence drop? Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd once saw Bitcoin hitting $400,000. Now he says it’s more like $8,000. LUNA 2.0 blockchain was approved this week. After the fundamental weakness that we all saw with our own two eyes, we wish that any readers thinking about this should approach with caution and use strict risk management if they choose to go ahead. Ripple, on the other hand, has seen solid buying as price has declined. Reports say whales have been quietly accumulating the coin during this week’s declines and we can see this on the charts today. XRP is this week’s focus due to this buying. XRP caught our attention as it started edging into the positive while other coins continued to see red. Let’s take a look at the daily chart. Price continues to see support and demand from 0.38. We see two failed lows this month, and while price remains above the latter one, we will continue to look at it as a new HL. Price sits in a descending triangle pattern. A break higher, and this could be a new leg higher in the making. A break lower and we will look for the current downtrend to continue. The post Crypto Focus: Markets Continue to Ride the Downtrend appeared first on Eightcap.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT metals data is the bounce-back in Gold and Copper speculator bets after multiple down weeks for both of these metals. Copper positions saw a small turnaround with a +4,775 contract gain this week after falling for six consecutive weeks which amounted to a total drop by -60,550 net positions from April 12th to May 17th. Copper has been particularly hard hit by the lockdowns in China and the effect that it has had on the industrial and manufacturing economy there. Copper speculator bets have now been oscillating at the lowest levels in approximately two years. Gold positions, meanwhile, rose by +8,453 contracts this week after declining in the previous five weeks and by a total of -78,927 contracts in that period. Gold bullish bets are under the +200,000 net contract level for a fourth straight week after spending the previous ten weeks above that threshold. Currently in 2022, Gold positions are averaging +221,416 weekly contracts so far compared to an average of +204,623 weekly contracts over 2021 and an average of +262,052 weekly contracts over 2020. Overall, the markets with higher speculator bets this week were Gold (8,453 contracts) and Copper (4,775 contracts) while the markets with declining speculator bets this week were Silver (-2,011 contracts), Platinum (-718 contracts) and Palladium (-257 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each market where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-24-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,711,863 0 334,761 11 -374,627 91 39,866 71 Gold 530,098 22 183,813 14 -211,947 82 28,134 37 Silver 146,456 13 14,103 26 -23,297 88 9,194 3 Copper 186,433 17 -19,633 28 19,288 73 345 27 Palladium 7,919 7 -3,472 2 3,800 98 -328 25 Platinum 65,824 32 1,485 5 -6,683 96 5,198 34 Natural Gas 1,107,496 6 -111,570 45 63,847 51 47,723 93 Brent 183,629 27 -39,289 45 37,488 56 1,801 34 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 729,900 28 188,368 72 -159,047 34 -29,321 21 Corn 1,544,885 29 427,848 85 -372,522 19 -55,326 11 Coffee 211,266 5 37,072 71 -38,484 34 1,412 4 Sugar 847,420 11 209,487 80 -255,450 20 45,963 65 Wheat 326,607 8 26,344 53 -24,339 25 -2,005 100   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 183,813 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,453 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 175,360 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 53.2 24.6 8.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.6 64.6 3.6 – Net Position: 183,813 -211,947 28,134 – Gross Longs: 282,202 130,364 47,411 – Gross Shorts: 98,389 342,311 19,277 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.9 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 14.0 81.5 37.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -35.7 35.7 -18.1   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 14,103 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,011 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,114 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.6 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 40.1 38.9 15.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.5 54.8 9.5 – Net Position: 14,103 -23,297 9,194 – Gross Longs: 58,748 56,910 23,064 – Gross Shorts: 44,645 80,207 13,870 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.1 87.6 2.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -36.9 45.6 -46.6   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -19,633 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,775 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,408 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.0 53.3 8.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.6 42.9 7.9 – Net Position: -19,633 19,288 345 – Gross Longs: 54,130 99,318 14,993 – Gross Shorts: 73,763 80,030 14,648 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.2 72.7 27.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -30.9 33.4 -32.1   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 1,485 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -718 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,203 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 39.6 41.0 13.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.3 51.2 5.1 – Net Position: 1,485 -6,683 5,198 – Gross Longs: 26,052 27,002 8,533 – Gross Shorts: 24,567 33,685 3,335 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 5.5 95.8 34.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.0 9.0 -22.7   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,472 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -257 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,215 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.2 70.1 12.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 53.0 22.2 16.4 – Net Position: -3,472 3,800 -328 – Gross Longs: 729 5,555 974 – Gross Shorts: 4,201 1,755 1,302 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 3.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 1.7 98.1 24.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.2 13.7 -55.5   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Today we’re watching the GER30 as price looks to be setting a new continuation idea. We need to see a strong close today, but for now, in the European session, signs are looking ok. This idea and pattern is a very close copy of what we discussed ed in the US30 article but just from a different take. The GER30 has set a fast trend of the new primary trend. This trend has also broken the downtrend, and today has started to form new support from an old area of resistance which could confirm as a new demand area. Last week we saw the first break of that resistance area, and today we could be seeing it become support. If we see a higher close today and a follow-up rally tomorrow, that could set us up with a date at last week’s high that also lines up with resistance. A break above that area, and yes, we could have a new up leg on our hands. A failure to beat that resistance level or a fade on today’s rally with further selling tomorrow that takes us back below the demand area is a worry and could suggest buyer strength might not be as strong as we are thinking now. Another possible curve ball could be from tomorrow’s NFP data. Payrolls are expected to come in lower and average earnings higher. A miss could send stocks lower, and a beat should have a positive impact. The NFP will be released at 8:30 EST tomorrow. GER30 D1 Chart The post CFD News: Eyes on the GER30 as buyers look to be forming a continuation. appeared first on Eightcap.

The Swing Overview – Week 20 The markets remain volatile and fragile, as shown by the VIX fear index, which has again surpassed the level 30 points. However, equity indices are at interesting supports and there could be some short-term recovery. The euro has bounced off its support in anticipation of tighter monetary policy and the gold is holding its price tag above $1,800 per troy ounce. Is the gold back in investors' favor again? Macroeconomic data The week started with a set of worse data from the Chinese economy, which showed that industrial production contracted by 2.9% year-on-year basis and the retail sales fell by 11.1%. The data shows the latest measures for the country's current COVID-19 outbreak are taking a toll on the economy. To support the slowing economy, China cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.15% on Friday morning, more than analysts expected. While this will not be enough to stave off current downside risks, markets may respond to expectation of more easing in the future. On a positive note, data from the US showed retail sales rose by 0.9% in April and industrial production rose by 1.1% in April. Inflation data in Europe was important. It showed that inflation in the euro area slowed down a little, reaching 7.4% in April compared to 7.5% in March. In Canada, on the other hand, the inflation continued to rise, reaching 6.8% (6.7% in March) and in the UK inflation was 9% in April (7% in the previous month). Several factors are contributing to the higher inflation figures: the ongoing war in Ukraine, problems in logistics chains and the effects of the lockdown in China. Concerns about the impact of higher inflation are showing up in the bond market. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield has come down from the 3.2% it reached on 9 May and is currently at 2.8%. This means that demand for bonds is rising and they are once again becoming an asset for times of uncertainty.  Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields and USD index on a daily chart   Equity indices on supports Global equities fell significantly in the past week, reaching significant price supports. Thus, there could be some form of short-term bounce. Although a cautious rally began on Thursday, which was then boosted by China's decision to cut interest rates in the early hours of Friday, there is still plenty of fear among investors and according to Louis Dudley of Federated Hermes, cash holdings have reached its highest level since September 2001, suggesting strong bearish sentiment. Supply chain problems have been highlighted by companies such as Cisco Systems, which has warned of persistent parts shortages. That knocked its shares down by 13.7%. The drop made it the latest big-stock company to post its biggest decline in more than a decade last week. The main risks that continue to cause volatility and great uncertainty are thus leading investors to buy "safe" assets such as the US bonds and the Swiss franc. Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart From a technical analysis perspective, the US SP 500 index continues to move in a downtrend as the market has formed a lower low while being below both the SMA 100 and EMA 50 moving averages on the H4 and daily charts. The nearest resistance is 4,080 - 4,100. The next resistance is at 4,140 and especially 4,293 - 4,300. Support is at 3,860 - 3,900 level. German DAX index The index continues to move in a downtrend along with the major world indices. The price has reached the support which is at 13,680 – 13,700 and the moving average EMA 50 on the H4 chart is above the SMA 100. This could indicate a short-term signal for some upward correction. However, the main trend according to the daily chart is still downwards. The nearest resistance is at 14,260 - 14,330 level. Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The euro has bounced off its support The EUR/USD currency pair benefited last week from the US dollar moving away from its 20-year highs while on the euro, investors are expecting a tightening economy and a rise in interest rates, which the ECB has not risen yet as one of the few banks. Figure 4: The EURUSD on H4 and daily chart   Significant support is at the price around 1.0350 - 1.040. Current resistance is at 1.650 - 1.700.   The Gold in investors' attention again The gold has underperformed over the past month, falling by 10% since April when the price reached USD 2,000 per ounce. But there is now strong risk aversion in the markets, as indicated by the stock markets, which have fallen. The gold, on the other hand, has started to rise. Inflation fears are a possible reason, and investors have begun to accumulate the gold for protection against rising prices. The second reason is that the gold is inversely correlated with the US dollar. The dollar has come down from its 20-year highs, which has allowed the gold to bounce off its support.  Figure 5: The gold on H4 and daily chart The first resistance is at $1,860 per ounce. The support is at $1,830 - $1,840 per ounce. The next support is then at $1,805 - $1,807 and especially at $1,800 per ounce.

Today our focus is on USOUSD (Oil) as price finished yesterday’s session with a commanding reversal bar. After trading over 2% lower, buyers not only took hold but ended the session with a solid 3.83% gain. Yesterday’s session appears to show that buyers are still very active, and for now, price is not comfortable trading below 114.77. The move maintains the current trend, but we want to see further confirmation to suggest that the trend is set to continue. Also supporting price are the moving averages and CCI. The moving averages are crossed to show buyers are in control of the average price (increasing( and the CCI remains in the bull zone above the 0 line. If buyers can reverse today’s selling and beat 119.50 minor resistance, which also holds yesterday’s high, we will then be looking for the current trend to continue with a possible new test of 122 or above. A failure to break yesterday’s high and minor resistance in today’s session could be seen as a small warning to buyer strength. Please check out or oil update video just below the chart. Oil D1 Chart Oil analysis video  The post CFD Update: Could we see Oil retest 122? appeared first on Eightcap.

So far, it’s been another week of what could have been. We saw solid gains on most of the top 10 turn into heavy selling that retraced most of the move. ETH, for instance, lost 11% of gains by Friday’s session. BTC 6.66% while coins like AVAX dipped into the red. BNB and SOL also struggled to find buyer demand tracking lower most of the week. XRP, like Bitcoin, saw plenty of buyer demand throughout the week but failed to hold gains late in the week, trimming gains into Friday. ADA bounced back this week, and it was nice to see the coin trading up to 25% higher before the fade set in. Bitcoin started the week below 30K. This set off a few alarm bells, but those worries subsided after the market leader moved back above 30k. Late week news hit that BTC mining has been banned in New York, and miners are reported to have been offloading their holdings. Ore worry hit the stable coin markets as DEI lost its peg, falling below 0.4. The stable coin issues could continue to undercut confidence in the crypto market. It was only a few weeks ago we saw the utter carnage that UST and Luna caused. Quite a few of the top ten look to be threatening at new pushes lower late into the week, but sellers have tried before to beat levels before being rejected. This week will look at the top 10 index. We can see that price overall remains in a range. The levels we want to see hold are 13,034 and 12,670. Any breaks below 12,670 signals the downtrend is back on. If we can see a close above 13,660, this could suggest buyers are back in control of short term momentum. The post Crypto Focus: А Stable Week of the Crypto Market appeared first on Eightcap.

Photo Credit: Marco Verch Professional Photographer || With some private investments, you can’t tell what the value truly is. Third party professional help occasionally assists dishonesty Part of my career was based on concealing volatility. I sold Guaranteed Investment Contracts. I helped design and manage several different types of stable value funds. Life insurance contracts get valued at their book value, regardless of what the replacement cost of an equivalent contract would be like presently. Anytime an investment pool with no current market price has a book value above the underlying value of the investments that it holds, there is risk to those holding the investment pool. The amount of risk can be small yet significant with some types of money market funds. It can be considerably larger in certain types of pooled investments like: Various types of business partnerships, including Private REITs, Real Estate Partnerships, Private Equity, etc.Illiquid debts, such as private credit funds, and notes with limited marketability, whether structured or not.Odd mutual funds that limit withdrawals because they offer “guarantees” of a sort. That applies to Variable Annuities with riders offering guaranteed benefits, if the life insurer becomes insolvent.One-off investment liquid partnerships that are secretive and unusual, like Madoff. The underlying may be illiquid, but the accounting may be fraudulent. Or, the accounting may be fine, but the assets listed are not what is in custody. (With small funds, analyze the auditor, trustees, and custodian.)The value of a company touted by a SPAC promoter may be worth considerably less than what is illustrated.Any investment in public equity or debt pool where the positions are concentrated, and they own a high percentage of the float, or a high amount of the securities relative to the amount that gets traded in an average month. Think of Third Avenue Focused Credit, or Archegos. I have consistently encouraged readers to “look through” their pooled investments, and consider what the underlying is worth. If you only have a vague idea of what the underlying investments are, look at their public equivalents. A rising tide lifts almost all boats, and a falling tide does the opposite. There is a conceit within private equity, private credit and private real estate funds that they are less risky; there is no volatility, because we cannot produce an NAV. They have the same volatility as the publicly traded funds, but the volatility is concealed. If trouble hits the public markets 50-75% of the way through the life of a private fund, it will have difficulty selling their investments at levels anywhere near the book value previously claimed by the sponsors. With consent of the limited partners, perhaps they extend the life of the fund to try to recover value, but that also imposes an opportunity cost on holders who were expecting proceeds from the fund on schedule. Remember as well that in a scenario like 1929-1932, private funds will be wiped out with similarly leveraged private funds. Aleph Blog has consistently warned about the possibility of depression, plague, war, famine, bad monetary policy and aggressive socialism. We have gotten plague, war, and bad monetary policy. Famine in a sense may come from the Ukraine war and trade restrictions on Russia, at least for the African countries that buy from them. Thus I encourage readers to avoid private investments that promise no volatility, like the stupid ads for Equity Multiple that run on Bloomberg Radio. All investments involve some type of risk. Just because you can’t or don’t measure the risk doesn’t mean that there is no risk. Don’t listen to investment sales pitches which tell you to avoid the volatility of the public equity and debt markets, when they are taking the exact same risks in the private market, and they cannot or will not measure the risks for you, no matter how thick or thin the “disclosure” document is. There is no significant advantage in the private market over the public market. Indeed, the reverse may be true. (Yes, I meant all of the ambiguity there.) Look to the underlying, and invest accordingly. Look at fees, and try to minimize them. Prize transparency, because it reduces risk in the long run. Those who are honest are transparent.

Now with Purple Trading: VIX volatility index as a tradable CFD futures symbol The volatility or market uncertainty index (VIX) is an invaluable tool used by many when analyzing markets. However, its trading also holds great potential. That's why we have decided to include it alongside our CFD futures symbols. Read this article and find out how and when to trade VIX as an CFD futures symbol. What is the VIX index and what does it indicate The Volatility Index (VIX), as the name suggests, is an index that is used to measure the level of market nervousness, uncertainty, and volatility. For these reasons, it is also sometimes called a fear gauge or fear index. The higher the VIX index values get, the greater the uncertainty in the markets and vice versa. However, it is very important to remember that the VIX index is a forward-looking index, so it shows the expected, not actual, market uncertainty.   How the VIX index is calculated VIX index measures 30 days of expected volatility of S&P 500 index, it does so by using S&P 500 options (SPX) listed on CBOE exchange as an input. VIX takes together all SPX call and put options and compares the changing demand and price between them.   Relationship between the VIX index and the markets The VIX index generally tracks the S&P 500 index in an inverse manner. That is, if the stock markets (S&P 500) are turbulent and investor nervousness/fear increases, the same can be observed for the VIX index. On the other hand, if stock prices are on the rise, the VIX index generally declines or advances sideways.   Meet: VIX.f - tradable CFD futures instrument Similar to other indices, the VIX is not tradable on its own and needs an investment vehicle to go with it. And that is what VIX.f is - a tradable continuous CFD futures instrument that behaves just like our other continuous CFD futures products. Its price is based on the underlying asset, which in this case is a specific VIX futures contract. Continuous in this case means that before each futures contract expires, there is an automatic rollover of the position. This will result in selling of old contracts and the buying of additional nearest futures contracts. It is also important to note that since this is a CFD instrument, you don’t become the owner of VIX.f when trading it. You only speculate on its price. How to trade VIX.f futures symbol VIX.f CFD futures is a very versatile symbol that can help traders and investors in several different situations:   Buy/long in case of an expected increase in volatility or turbulence in the markets Risk management or hedging vehicle for investors - through the inverse relationship of the VIX and the S&P 500 Option to open a short position in case of expecting a positive economic development in markets Overall, it should be noted that VIX.f futures is not recommended to be traded in a buy and hold manner, but rather as a short-term investment.Symbol specification: Symbol specification Name in Platform VIX.f Leverage ESMA 1:10 Leverage PRO 1:10 Trade hours (GMT+3) Monday to Friday 1:00 – 24:00  i Check out the current trading hours and hours changes Commission 10 USD/lot Currency USD Tick size 0.01 Tick value 0.1 Volume step 1 Min trade 1 Max trade 50

Happy Monday. After a flat weekend, buyers have defiantly hit the new week with a lot more energy. After a hesitant start, buyers came back into the crypto markets during today’s Asian session. In today’s European and London session we’re still seeing strong interest, with many of the top 10 continuing to hit solid gains. Our focus today is on Cardano. Has today’s rally started to confirm a new leg high? What has our interest is the pattern before today’s action. We can see a clear LL that failed to hold and a new HL in May. We did see one attempt by buyers fail after they tested .6850. After consolidation, today’s move is a breakout with support at .5460 and minor resistance at .6040. We want to see price close above resistance today. Looking forward, we want to see how buyers handle their latest move back into the last supply area. A break above or firm close, close to .68 would be a good sign buyers are in control of momentum. A close below 0.600 would worry, in our opinion. Thanks for stopping by, and please check out or market update below the chart. Cardano D1 Chart   Cardano Update Video (Powered by TradingView) The post Crypto News: Has Cardano started up a new leg higher appeared first on Eightcap.

We are expanding our futures offer. You can now trade SP500 index and orange juice At Purple Trading, we are expanding our offer of CFD futures symbols by 2 more. The first one is the notorious S&P 500 index, followed by the futures contract for frozen orange juice concentrate. S&P 500 as a tradable futures symbol: US500.f This is a derivative contract that allows you to speculate on the price of the S&P 500 index. US500.f is therefore a continuous CFD futures symbol which price is based on the underlying asset. Of course, it should be noted here for the sake of argument that, since it is a CFD instrument, you do not become the owner of the US500.f when trading it. Rather you only speculate on its price. Continuous in this case means that before each futures contract expires, there is an automatic rollover of the position. This will result in selling of old contracts and the buying of additional nearest futures contracts. These contracts are split by quarter, specifically March, June, September and December. Trading methods US500.f   As with every CFD instrument, with US500.f you can speculate on either rise and/or fall in its price. It can also be a valuable alternative to other CFD futures products we offer at Purple Trading (for example, the VIX volatility index, with which the S&P 500 has an inverse relationship). Furthermore, clients do not pay swap fees for holding a position on this instrument, but only the standard $10/lot fee as with all other CFD futures instruments. However, they must not forget about rollovers. Clients can also use this instrument to hedge stock portfolios or effectively expand client’s exposure to the US market. US500.f specification:   US500.f specification Name in Platform US500.f Leverage ESMA 1:10 Leverage PRO 1:10 Trading hours (GMT+3) Monday to Friday 1:00 – 24:00  i Check out the current trading hours and hours changes Commission 10 USD/lot Currency USD Tick size 0.01 Tick value 0.01 Volume step 1 Min trade 1 Max trade 50 Frozen orange juice concentrate - Orangej.f If you're a fan of the movie Trading places with Eddie Murphy, you'll remember the scene with the shorting of the orange juice concentrate futures. Guess what, now you can find exactly the same product among our CFD futures instruments! Orangej.f specification   1 lot = 2000 pound of frozen concentrated orange juice market (taken directly from GBE) Contracts every two months (Jan, March, May, Jul, Sep, Nov) Traded on ICE (US) exchange   Orangej.f specification Name in Platform Orangej.f Leverage ESMA 1:10 Leverage PRO 1:10 Trading hours (GMT+3) Monday to Friday 15:00 – 21:00  i Check out the current trading hours and hours changes Commission 10 USD/lot Currency USD Tick size 0.01 Tick value 0.2 Volume step 1 Min trade 1 Max trade 50

The Swing Overview - Week 22 Equity indices continued to rise for a second week despite rising inflation and sanctions against Russia. Economic data indicate optimistic consumer expectations and the easing of the Covid-19 measures in China also brought some relief to the markets. The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 1.5%. The Eurozone inflation hit a new record of 8.1%, giving further fuel to the ECB to raise interest rates, which is supporting the euro to strengthen.   Macroeconomic data The US consumer confidence in economic growth for May came in at 106.4. The market was expecting 103.9. This optimism points to an expected increase in consumer spendings, which is a positive development. The optimism was also confirmed by data from the manufacturing sector. The ISM PMI index in manufacturing rose by 56.1 in May, an improvement on the April reading of 55.4. The manufacturing sector is therefore expecting further expansion.   On the other hand, data from the labour market were disappointing. The ADP Non Farm Employment indicator (private sector job growth) was well below expectations as the economy created only 128k new jobs in May (the market was expecting 300k new jobs). The unemployment claims data held at the standard 200k level. However, the crucial indicator from the labour market will be Friday's NFP data.   Quarterly wage growth for 1Q 2022 was 12.6% (previous quarter was 3.9%). This figure is a leading indicator on inflation. Faster inflation growth could lead to a higher-than-expected 0.50% rate hike at the Fed's June meeting.   The US 10-year Treasury yields have rebounded from 2.6% and have started to rise again. They are currently around 2.9%. However, the US Dollar Index has not yet reacted to the rise in yields. The reason is that the euro, which has appreciated significantly in recent days, has the largest weight in the USD index. Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields and USD index on the daily chart   The SP 500 Index The SP 500 index has continued to strengthen in recent days. The market seems to be accepting the expected 0.50% rate hike and while economic data points to some slowdown, forward looking consumers‘ and managers’ expectations are optimistic.  Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   The US SP 500 index is approaching a significant resistance level, which is in the 4,197-4,204 range. The next one is at 4,293 - 4,306. The nearest support is at 4 075 - 4 086.    German DAX index Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart Germany's manufacturing PMI for May came in at 54.8. The previous month it was 54, 6. Thus, managers expect expansion in the manufacturing sector. Surprisingly, German exports rose in April despite the disruption of trade relations with Russia. Exports in Germany grew by 4.4% even though exports to Russia fell by 10%.  The positive data has an impact on the DAX index. However, the bulls in DAX may be discouraged by the expected ECB interest rate hike.   The DAX has reached resistance in the 14,600 - 14,640 area. The nearest significant support is at 14,300 - 14,330, where the horizontal resistance is coincident with the moving average EMA 50 on the H4 chart.   The euro continues to rise Bulls on the euro were supported by inflation data, which reached a record high of 8.1% in the eurozone for the month of May. Inflation increased by 0.8% on a monthly basis compared to April. Information from the manufacturing sector exceeded expectations, with the manufacturing PMI for May coming in at 54.6, indicating optimism in the economy. The ECB will meet on Thursday 9/6/2022 and it might be surprising. While analysts do not expect a rate hike at this meeting, rising inflation may prompt the ECB to act faster.  Figure 4: The EUR/USD on H4 and daily chart The EUR/USD currency pair is reacting to the rate hike expectations by gradual strengthening. A resistance is at 1.0780 The nearest support is now at 1.0629 - 1.0640 and then at 1.0540 - 1.0550.   The Bank of Canada raised the interest rate The GDP in Canada for Q1 2022 grew by 2.89% year-on-year (3.23% in the previous period). On a month-on-month basis, the GDP grew by 0.7% (0.9% in February). This points to slowing economic growth.  Canada's manufacturing PMI for May came in at 56.8 (56.2 in April ), an upbeat development. The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by 0.50% to 1.5% as expected by analysts. In addition to the rate hike, the Canadian dollar is positively affected by the rise in oil prices as Canada is a major exporter. Figure 5: The USD/CAD on H4 and daily chart The USD/CAD currency pair is currently in a downward movement. The nearest resistance according to the daily chart is 1.2710-1.2730. Support according to the daily chart is in the range of 1.2400-1.2470.  

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 31/5/2022 Total net speculator positions on the USD index fell by 501 contracts last week to 37,538 contracts. This change is the result of an increase in long positions by 1,184 contracts and an increase in short positions by 1,685 contracts. Significant fact is the further bullish movement in speculators' positions for the euro currency futures contracts. This week, the euro speculators increased their bullish positions for the fourth consecutive week and the sixth time in the last ten weeks. Over the past four weeks, speculators' total net positions in the euro have increased by a total of +58,650 contracts, from -6,378 net positions on May 3 to a total of +52,272 net positions last week. Total net positions for the euro are the highest in twelve weeks. The recent improvement in euro positions has come with a very significant change in sentiment, as just four weeks ago the total position had fallen into bearish territory. Sentiment in the euro was so bad that analysts were talking about the inevitable decline of the euro to parity against the dollar. Recently, however, expectations have been growing that the European Central Bank will become more hawkish on interest rates in the near future and end its negative interest rate policy, causing the euro to strengthen. In addition to the euro, speculators' total net positions rose on the British pound, the New Zealand dollar, the Canadian dollar and the Japanese yen. On the Australian dollar and the Swiss franc, total net positions fell last week. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF May 31, 2022 37538 52272 -74105 -48682 -18724 -94439 -7007 -20458 May 24, 2022 38039 38930 -80372 -45446 -19321 -99444 -12687 -19673 May 17, 2022 36213 20339 -79241 -44642 -17767 -102309 -14496 -16592 May 10, 2022 34776 16529 -79598 -41714 -12996 -110454 -5407 -15763 May 03, 2022 33071 -6378 -73813 -28516 -6610 -100794 9029 -13907 Apr 26, 2022 33879 22201 -69621 -27651 66 -95535 20881 -12869   Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com     The Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment May 31, 2022 706317 236553 184281 52272 -2621 -519 -13861 13342 Bullish May 24, 2022 708938 237072 198142 38930 2226 6302 -12289 18591 Bullish May 17, 2022 706712 230770 210431 20339 1666 2540 -1270 3810 Bullish May 10 2022 705046 228230 211701 16529 10120 19781 3126 22907 Bullish May 03, 2022 694926 208449 214827 -6378 6477 -14544 14035 -28579 Bearish Apr 26, 2022 688449 222993 200792 22201 12510 1990 11090 -9100 Weak bullish         Total change 30378 15550 -5421 20971     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EUR/USD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 52,272 contracts last week, up by 13,342 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 519 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 13,861 contracts. This data suggests bullish sentiment as the total net positions are positive while there has been an increase. Open interest fell by 2,621 contracts in the last week. This shows that the move that occurred in the euro last week was not supported by the volume and it was therefore a weak price action. The price has reached the EMA 50 moving average on the daily chart, at which it is oscillating, showing that there is a resistance here. Long-term resistance: 1.0800 – 1.0840 Support: 1.0620 – 1-0630. The next support is in the zone 1.0340 – 1.0420.   The British pound   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment May 31, 2022 252881 30788 104893 -74105 -983 4852 -1415 6267 Weak bearish May 24, 2022 253864 25936 106308 -80372 53 -677 454 -1131 Bearish May 17, 2022 253811 26613 105854 -79241 -10783 -2856 -3213 357 Weak bearish May 10, 2022 264594 29469 109067 -79598 -3902 -4067 1718 -5785 Bearish May 03, 2022 268496 33536 107349 -73813 -4296 -6900 -2708 -4192 Bearish Apr 26, 2022 272792 40436 110057 -69621 23263 3625 14332 -10707 Bearish         Total change 3352 -6023 9168 -15191     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBP/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week amounted to 74,105 contracts, up by 6,267 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 4,852 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 1,415 contracts. This indicates weak bearish sentiment as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, but at the same time there has been an increase in total net positions. The open interest fell by 983 contracts last week, indicating that the downward movement in the pound that occurred last week was not supported by the volume and it was therefore a weak price action. Long-term resistance: 1.2700 – 1.2760.    Support: 1.2160 – 1.2200.     The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment May 31, 2022 153661 32897 81579 -48682 -4954 -3682 -446 -3236 Bearish May 24, 2022 158615 36579 82025 -45446 -5194 -4894 -4090 -804 Bearish May 17, 2022 163809 41473 86115 -44642 10600 4604 7532 -2928 Bearish May 10, 2022 153209 36869 78583 -41714 952 -10126 3072 13198 Bearish May 03, 2022 152257 46995 75511 -28516 5167 -110 755 -865 Bearish Apr 26, 2022 147090 47105 74756 -27651 -219 7904 6718 1186 Weak bearish         Total change 6352 -6304 13541 -19845     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUD/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week amounted to 48,682 contracts, down by 3,236 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 3,682 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 446 contracts. This data suggests bearish sentiment on the Australian dollar, as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, while at the same time there has been a further decline in the past week. There was a decline in open interest of 4,954 contracts last week. This means that the upward movement that occurred last week was not supported by the volume and it was therefore weak price action. The price has currently reached the horizontal resistance at 0.7260 where a reaction occurred. If this resistance is  broken, a further bullish movement could continue. Long-term resistance: 0.7250-0.7260                                                                                                              Long-term support: 0.6830-0.6850     The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment May 31, 2022 55134 9179 27903 -18724 -4145 -1570 -2167 597 Weak bullish May 24, 2022 59279 10749 30070 -19321 -1525 -4249 -2695 -1554 Bearish May 17, 2022 60804 14998 32765 -17767 4569 -205 4566 -4771 Bearish May 10, 2022 56235 15203 28199 -12996 5391 -2224 4162 -6386 Bearish May 03, 2022 50844 17427 24037 -6610 4334 -4658 2018 -6676 Bearish Apr 26, 2022 46510 22085 22019 66 5412 3004 3303 -299 Weak bullish         Total change 14036 -9902 9187 -19089     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZD/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached -18,724 contracts last week, having grown by 597 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 1,570 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 2,167 contracts. This data suggests that there has been a weakening of bearish sentiment on the New Zealand Dollar over the past week as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, but there has also been an increase in total net positions. The open interest fell by 4,145 contracts last week.  The move in NZD/USD that occurred last week was not supported by the volume and therefore the move was weak. The NZD/USD has reached the resistance band at 0.6570 and also the EMA 50 moving average on the daily chart, which is a strong confluence and there has already been some bearish reaction there. If this resistance is broken, further strengthening could occur.  Long-term resistance: 0.6540 – 0.6560 Long-term support: 0.6220 – 0.6280     Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.

Looking at the action on the majors to the USD in today’s London session, you might notice that the EUR is currently y running its own race as the other two majors track lower. It’s an interesting picture atm as the AUD and GBP trade lower to a firm USD while the EURUSD has broken yesterday’s high after pulling back 0.27% Price overall remains in a choppy range. Yesterday’s bar showed buyer demand as it stopped a third straight day of selling. There’s plenty of demand from 1.0675 down to 1.0650. But it’s the choppiness that’s a worry. If today’s bar can hold higher above yesterday’s close, that could kick start a new move that could retest 1.0750 demand. We want to see a move above 1.0780 to show that the current up leg is setting up as a new trend. While price remains in the consolidation, we do wonder if the weight may also easily lead to new test lower by sellers. Thursday could play a part in the short term fortunes of the EURUSD as the ECM meets. Rates are expected to remain on hold, but it’s the statement from the ECB and their future stance that might have an impact. EURUSD D1 Chart   The post Forex Update: EURUSD bucking USD demand but will we see resistance retested? appeared first on Eightcap.

Blue on the crypto boards into today’s London session. The CRYPTO25 index leads the gains, but our focus is on Solana as the price has started to bounce after holding one again from 37.50 support. This support is the base of a descending triangle price pattern, and the price has just started to break out of it in today’s session. Yes, we’re seeing good signs with buying currently, but we hope to see the price close above the upper triangle line completing the breakout. If we do see a move confirm the breakout, we will be looking at the red resistance lines and if buyers can start clearing these resistance levels and get a new up leg happening. Looking further ahead, the next main level of resistance could be seen at the last low area, around 78.99. All of this comes down to price breaking out and not fading back into the pattern. If we see a failed rally today, that would be a worry, and it could suggest that buyer momentum isn’t that strong. A break below the support base, and we could be switching short. But for now, we will continue to watch if Solana buyers can confirm a pattern break. Solana D1 Chart The post Crypto Update: Solana, will we finally see a technical move higher?   appeared first on Eightcap.

Hedging as an effective form of protection from loss On the markets, it is used by both professional traders and big players such as banks, investment funds, and others. No wonder, because if you master hedging, it can help you to significantly reduce potential losses and keep you profitable. In this article, we'll show you how to hedge and which instruments are suitable for that. What is hedging? It is a kind of insurance in the form of a trading strategy. It is designed to mitigate potential risks. In hedging, traders (and also financial institutions) hold positions on assets/contracts that have an inverse relationship to each other and thus develop inversely. When one instrument falls, the other rises and vice versa.   Benefits There is one significant advantage to being "hedged". Namely, traders, with this form of insurance, are able to reduce the risks on their opened trading positions and thus better respond to adverse market developments that threaten these positions. At the same time, they have the comfort of being able to guess in advance the value of the maximum potential loss in the event that something goes wrong in the markets. Hedging is thus a really important tool in risk management.   Disadvantages Hedging is essentially a form of insurance. And as it happens, you have to pay for insurance. The same is true for investing in opposing instruments. By having one investment grow while the other declines, you lose a certain amount of potential profit. A theoretical example of hedging We have a trader who buys stock XY for $1000. He decides to hedge and to do so he chooses to buy a six-month put option for $100 with a strike price of $850. This means that our trader has half a year until the option expires to sell his stock at 850USD in case the market is unfavorable for him).   If the share price rises A six-month put option is about to expire and the share price is higher than 850 USD (e.g. 1150 USD). The trader will therefore logically not exercise his option, thus losing 100 USD (the original price of his option). However, by keeping XY stock, which is now worth 1150 USD, his net profit is 1050 USD (1150 - 100). As we wrote above, the hedging in this case reduced the trader’s overall profit, but that is a tax he needs to pay for being “insured”. The following example will show you what would have happened if the trader had not hedged.   The share price plunges In an alternate universe, our trader did not do well and the market gave him a slap in the face in the form of a drop in XY's share price to $600. However, our trader has hedged and exercises his still unexpired option. He can then sell his stock at the option price of the announced 850 USD. In this case, his total loss is 250 USD (850 - 600). If we would take a look at our trader in yet another alternative universe where he has not hedged, his loss would be 400 USD (1000 - 600). CFD hedging: the S&P500 and VIX index The current market developments, influenced by high inflation and the war in Ukraine, are not good for the markets. According to the VIX index, nervousness in the markets will continue to rise and stock indices like the SP500 are currently heading in exactly the opposite direction. However, did you know that these 2 mentioned indices can now be traded in Purple Trading to get a rather effective hedging tool? At Purple Trading, traders now have a unique opportunity to hedge using CFD futures contracts. Namely, we are now launching CFD futures symbols in the form of the VIX index and S&P500, which traders can find in their Purple Trading MT4 platforms. Both symbols have a highly inverse relationship with each other, which is why they are widely sought after when it comes to hedging. Chart 1: Six-month S&P500 price trend (note the apparent inverse relationship with the VIX chart below; source: Googlefinance.com) Chart 2: Six-month VIX price trend (note the apparent inverse relationship with the SP500 chart above) Relationship between VIX and S&P500 The VIX index is often called the fear or nervousness index. Its chart indicates the estimated future nervousness in the markets. This manifests itself in the form of volatility, i.e. sharp and seemingly random price fluctuations caused by nervous investors who are buying/selling more than usual. Thus, if the VIX index shows an increase, volatility/nervousness in the markets can be expected to increase. The exact opposite is true for the S&P500. It outright hates volatility and nervousness in the markets and if it is announced, the S&P500 usually starts to fall. This is due to nervous investors withdrawing from the stock markets to seemingly safer havens, which is gold for example. Thus, if the VIX index (hence volatility) rises, the S&P500 falls and vice versa. Effective hedging is one of the reasons why Purple Trading clients are among the most profitable in the EU FAQ

Well, it was another week of ranges traders, as we saw a few moves by both sides, but the picture remains relatively the same, with many of the top 10 coins remaining heavily range-bound for another week. BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, BNB, and Doge are looking quite similar as traders continue to look for that reason to break the deadlock. Solana looked like it was trying to get a move higher going yesterday, but that was cut down into Thursday’s NY session. For now, it looks like the smart move will be to continue to sit if you’re long-term and stay on the lines if you’re a short-term trader. Until we see a shift in momentum, it could continue to be death by one thousand cuts if you continue to try and play the mini breakouts. It’s not to say we didn’t see some movement this week. ADA, a member on the top 10, did trade up to 20% higher before the fade set in yesterday. For now, ADA is in a minor uptrend, but we want to see 67 beaten to resume thinking that buyers are flat out in control. Other movers in the top 60 have been Helium +36% and THETA +12.2%. In the Top 25, ChainLink has seen a solid seven days up 23.4%. In other news, the SEC has stated that BTC and ETH are commodities. It’s going to be hard to get delivery of those. The SEC is also set to investigate the recent TerraUSD crash. Once again, we are going to end with an index to gauge the overall mood we see on the boards at present. It’s a very clear picture at the moment with the CRYPTO25 index as the price remains hemmed in its range between 11,250 and 9860. Recent price action has started to form a squeeze but that might just produce another mini-break that remains held between the range high and low. We are now at a point where we are looking for a high momentum break, either higher or lower, to set some direction. The post Crypto Focus: Many of the Top 10 Coins Remaining Heavily Range-Bound for Another Week appeared first on Eightcap.

Image credit: All images belong to Aleph Blog Well, finally the bear market… at 3/31/2002 the S&P 500 was priced to return a trice less than zero in nominal terms. After the pasting the market received today, that figure is 3.57%/year nominal (not adjusted for inflation). You would likely be better off in an ETF of 10-year single-A rated bonds yielding 4.7% — both for safety and return. I will admit that my recent experiment buying TLT has been a flop. I added to the position today. My view is that the long end of the curve is getting resistant to the belly of the curve, and thus the curve is turning into the “cap” formation, where the middle of the curve is higher than the short and long ends. This is a rare situation. Usually, the long end rallies in situations like this. The only situation more rare than this is the “cup” formation where the middle of the curve is lower than the short and long ends. I will have to update my my old post of “Goes Down Double-Speed.” We’ve been through three cycles since then — bear, bull, and now bear again. People get surprised by the ferocity of bear markets, but they shouldn’t be. People get shocked at losing money on paper, and thus the selloffs happen more rapidly. Bull markets face skepticism, and so they are slow. What are the possibilities given where the market is now? When the market is expecting 3.57% nominal, give or take one percent, what tends to happen? Most of the time, growth at these levels for the S&P 500 is pretty poor. That said, market expectations of inflation over the next ten years are well below the 4.7% you can earn on an average 10-year single-A rated corporate bond. Those expectations may be wrong — they usually are, but you can’t tell which way they will be wrong. I am still a believer in deflation, so I think current estimates of inflation are too high. There is too much debt and so monetary policy will have more punch than previously. The FOMC will panic, tighten too much, and crater some area in the financial economy that they care about, and then they will give up again, regardless of how high inflation is. They care more about avoiding a depression than inflation. They will even resume QE with inflation running hot if they are worried about the financial sector. The Fed cares about things in this order: Preserve their own necksPreserve the banks, and things like themFight inflationFund the US GovernmentPromote nominal GDP growth, though they will call it reducing labor unemployment. The Fed really doesn’t care about labor unemployment, or inequality. They are a bourgeois institution that cares about themselves and their patrons — those who are rich. I know this post is “all over the map.” My apologies. That said, we in a very unusual situation featuring high debt, high current inflation (that won’t last), war, plague, and supply-chain issues. How this exactly works out is a mystery, especially to me — but I am giving you my best guess here, for whatever it is worth. It’s worth than double what you paid for it! Full disclosure: long TLT for clients and me

Well, traders, what an insane few days we have seen on the crypto markets. Some of the falls have just about been doomsday stuff. ETH, for instance, broke below 1100 today, and Bitcoin briefly moved below 21K. Solana’s low retraced the entire 2020/21 run before buyers jumped back in today. So let’s move to today’s focus Cardano. The late May and early June price looked good, moving back above .66 before the latest bear raids kicked off. Five straight sessions saw 24% taken off the price and today looked no different as prices raced a further 9% lower. Buyers emerged into today’s Asian session and, at this stage, have pulled 17% back since today’s low. This caught our attention from where the turnaround occurred, and it lined up very nicely with .4450 support. This could be a good sign as price continues to sit in its range and is not in a solid downtrend like many other top 10 coins. If buyers can hold out today and maintain a close above support, this could be good signs that buyers are trying to regain control. A close below support, and we will be back on the bear front. If buyers can hold support and a decent push higher, we will look for broader buying to show overall demand, and we will then look to see if buyers can break the top of the range to start suggesting that a new move higher could be developing. Cardano D1 Chart The post Crypto News: Cardano focus after support bounce appeared first on Eightcap.

After a long period of heavy selling, crypto markets saw a small respite yesterday. The Fed raised rates higher than expected yesterday and advised they will do whatever is required to get inflation back around the 2% level. Whether it was a point of oversold value or market confidence in the Fed’s message of action, the result was a recovery in risk markets. From FX to indexes and crypto buyers pushed back, posting higher closes after days of selling. This morning the script continued on from yesterday as buyers continued to hold sway, but this changed into the LON session as a wave of new sellers moved in, knocking the wind out of buyer sails. Bitcoin is the focus of today’s report. After 8 hours of buying, sellers stepped in, re-holding 22,670 resistance. Since that point, we are now seeing three straight bars lower. From here, the 4H show’s a V pattern which could become a reversal but  the trends are definitely lower at the moment, and price failed to break 22,670 resistance. We see two paths from this point. One, buyers manage to break resistance extending the current recovery. Two, we see the current selling expand with a new move back to support. If we see a break of support, this could set up a new extension of the current downtrend. Bitcoin 4H chart The post Crypto News: Bitcoin stalling after yesterday’s recovery? appeared first on Eightcap.

Thanks for tuning in, readers. Today we’re looking at USOUSD oil and wondering if yesterday’s price rejection could lead to a new leg higher from buyers. So far this week, we have seen mixed trade with buyers coming close to breaking last week’s high before sellers took hold and set up a two-day retracement. It would have been three, but buyers had other ideas yesterday, stopping sellers once they tested 112.75. Buyers quickly took price back up above 117 and posted a higher close for the session. Today so far price has been on the quieter side. If we can see a new move above yesterday’s high, we will be looking for a new up leg, but if sellers can close below 115.14 this could be a warning that the current retracement could have further to go. If we do see a new leg higher would look for price to possibly get back into the 120/21 area if buyers can maintain momentum. Happy Friday, all. We hope everyone has a lovely weekend and good trading. USOUSD D1 Chart (please see below for our analysis video powered by TradingView) USOUSD Analysis Video The post USOUSD OIL, Yesterday’s buyer fightback to push a new leg higher? appeared first on Eightcap.

The Swing Overview - Week 23 Major global stock indices broke through their support levels after several days of range movement in response to the tightening economy, the ongoing war in Ukraine, slowing economic growth and high inflation. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its interest rate by 0.50%. The ECB decided to start raising interest rates by 0.25% from July 2022. The winner of last week is the US dollar, which continues to strengthen. Macroeconomic data Data from the US labour market was highly anticipated. The job creation indicator, the so-called NFP, surprised the markets positively. Analysts expected that 325,000 new jobs had been created in May. In fact, 390 thousand jobs were created in the US. Unemployment is at 3.6%. The information on the growth of hourly wages, which is a leading indicator of inflation, was important. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in May, less than analysts who expected 0.4%.   Unemployment claims reached 229,000 this week. This is the highest levels since 3/3/2022. However, this is not an extreme increase. The number of claims is still in the pre-pandemic average area. Nevertheless, it can be seen that since 7/4/2022, when the number of applications reached 166 thousand, the number of applications is slowly increasing and this indicator will be closely monitored.  The ISM index of purchasing managers in the US service sector reached 55.9 in May. This is lower than the previous month's reading of 57.1. A value above 50 still points to expansion in the sector although the decline in the reading indicates  economy.   The yield on the US 10-year bond is close to its peak and is currently around 3%. The rise in yields has been followed by a rise in the US dollar. The dollar index has surpassed 103. The reason for the strengthening of the dollar is the aggressive tightening of the economy by the US Fed, which began reducing the central bank's balance sheet on June 1, 2022. In practice, this means that the Fed will let expire the government bonds it previously bought as part of QE and will not reinvest them further. The first tranche of bonds will expire on June 15, so the effect of this operation remains to be seen. Figure 1: The US 10-year bond yields and USD index on the daily chart   The SP 500 Index The SP 500 index has been moving in a narrow range for the past few days between 4,200, where resistance is and 4,080, where support has been tested several times. This support was broken and has become the new resistance as we can see on the H4 chart.   Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   The catalyst for this strong initiation move is the strong US dollar and rising bond yields. Therefore, the current resistance is in the 4,075 - 4,085 range.  The nearest support is 3,965 - 3,970 according to the H4 chart. The next support is 3,879 - 3,907.   German DAX index Macroeconomic data that affected the DAX was manufacturing orders for April, which fell 2.7% month-on-month, while analysts were expecting a 0.3% rise. Industrial production in Germany rose by 0.7% in April (expectations were for 1.0%). The war in Ukraine has a strong impact on the weaker figures. The catalyst for breaking support was the ECB's decision to raise interest rates, which the bank will start implementing from July 2022. Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The DAX is below the SMA 100 moving average according to the daily and H4 chart. This shows a bearish sentiment. The nearest resistance is 14,300 - 14,335. Support is at 13,870 - 13,900 according to the H4 chart.   The ECB left the interest rate unchanged  The ECB left interest rates unchanged on June 9, 2022, so the key rate is still at 0.0%. However, the bank said that it will proceed with a rate hike from July, when the rate is expected to rise by 0.25%. The next hike will then be in September, probably again by 0.25%. The bank pointed to the high inflation rate, which is expected to reach 6.8% for 2022. Inflation is expected to fall to 3.4% in 2023 and 2.1% in 2024.  Figure 4: The EUR/USD on H4 and daily chart According to the bank, a significant risk is Russia's unjustified aggression against Ukraine, which is causing problems in supply chains and pushing energy and some commodity prices up. The result is a slowdown in the growth of the European economy. The bank also announced that it will end its asset purchase program as of July 1, 2022. This is the soft end of this program, as the money that will flow from matured assets will continue to be reinvested by the bank. In practice, this means that the ECB's balance sheet will not be further inflated, but for now, unlike the Fed’s balance sheet, the bank has no plans to reduce its balance sheet. This, coupled with the more moderate rate hike plans and the existence of the above risks, has supported the dollar and the euro has begun to weaken sharply in response to the ECB announcement. The resistance is 1.0760-1.0770. Current support at 1.063-1.064 is broken and it will become new resistance if the break is confirmed. The next support according to the H4 chart is 1.0530 - 1.0550.   Australian central bank surprises with aggressive approach In Australia, the central bank raised its policy rate by 0.50%. Analysts had expected the bank to raise the rate by 0.25%. Thus, the current rate on the Australian dollar is 0.80%. However, this aggressive increase did not strengthen the Australian dollar, which surprisingly weakened. The reason for this is the strong US dollar and also the risk off sentiment that is taking place in the equity indices.  Also impacting the Aussie is the situation in China, where there is zero tolerance of COVID-19. This will impact the country's economic growth, which is very likely to fall short of the 5.5% that was originally projected.  Figure 5: The AUD/USD on H4 and daily chart According to the H4 chart, the AUD/USD currency pair has broken below the SMA 100 moving average, which is a bearish signal. The nearest resistance is 0.7140 - 0.7150. The support is in the zone 0.7030 - 0.7040. 

Hi traders, well, another week, another heavy extension lower. This week’s selling really struck home as levels not seen in a while were reached on some coins. The most selling was seen on the top this week as it lost 22% while the top 25 lost 20%. Plenty of mental pain was seen over the last week as coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum hit levels not seen since 2020. Bitcoin came very close to breaking 20K, and Ethereum just missed breaking 1K. Solana hit 25.77, just about retracing the entire 2021 move. Is it a bit late to say the market is internally sick? I feel it is a bit. Confidence looks shot, and this tends to remind me of 2017/2018. Is this different? Could we see a new rally that moves are a more sustainable speed? Or have stable coins shown a fundamental weakness in the crypto world that has drawn trust out of the crypto dream? Sorry to sound so dramatic, but if you compare Bitcoin now to Bitcoin in 2017, you will see some similarities. Sirin Labs has not followed the overall market trend as it has seen ridiculous gains over the last two days. Price looks to have been helped by news that a blockchain-backed smartphone backed by football superstar Lionel Messi is set to be released in November. The market looks to approval as price of SRNUSD has exploded by over 1200% in the last two days. The post Crypto Focus: Prices Sink Lower as Crypto Malaise Spreads appeared first on Eightcap.

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 7/6/2022 Total net speculator positions on the USD index rose by 400 contracts last week to 37,938 contracts. This change is the result of a 600-contract increase in long positions and a 200-contract increase in short positions. On the euro, there was a decrease in total net positions after a significant previous increase. A reduction in total net positions also occurred on the New Zealand dollar last week. Increases in total net positions occurred last week on the British pound, the Australian dollar, the Japanese yen, the Canadian dollar, and the Swiss franc. The markets experienced high volatility last week, triggered by concerns that the economy was tightening more rapidly on the back of rising inflation. As a result, equity indices have continued to fall and this risk-off sentiment has led to a strengthening of the US dollar and a weakening of more or less all currencies tracked. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Jun 7, 2022    37938 50543 -70810 -47896 -19771 -91646 -1062 -16132 May 31, 2022 37538 52272 -74105 -48682 -18724 -94439 -7007 -20458 May 24, 2022 38039 38930 -80372 -45446 -19321 -99444 -12687 -19673 May 17, 2022 36213 20339 -79241 -44642 -17767 -102309 -14496 -16592 May 10, 2022 34776 16529 -79598 -41714 -12996 -110454 -5407 -15763 May 03, 2022 33071 -6378 -73813 -28516 -6610 -100794 9029 -13907   Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com   The Euro   DatE Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions Change Open Interest Change Long Change Short Change Net Positions Sentiment Jun 07, 2022 730667 230248 179705 50543 24350 -6305 -4576 -1729 Weak bullish May 31, 2022 706317 236553 184281 52272 -2621 -519 -13861 13342 Bullish May 24, 2022 708938 237072 198142 38930 2226 6302 -12289 18591 Bullish May 17, 2022 706712 230770 210431 20339 1666 2540 -1270 3810 Bullish May 10, 2022 705046 228230 211701 16529 10120 19781 -3126 22907 Bullish May 03, 2022 694926 208449 214827 -6378 6477 -14544 14035 -28579 Bearish         Total Change 42218 7255 -21087 28342     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EUR/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached 50 543 contracts last week, down by 1 729 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 6,305 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 4,576 contracts. This data suggests weak bullish sentiment as total net positions are positive but at the same time there has been a decline. Open interest rose by 24,350 contracts in the last week. This shows that the downward movement that occurred in the euro last week was supported by volume and it was therefore a strong price action. The price bounced off resistance at the EMA 50 moving average and is approaching horizontal support which is in the band at 1.0400. The weakening euro is a result of the ECB's approach to inflation. The ECB announced to raise the rate by 0.25% from July, which is significantly less than the interest rate increase implemented by the US Fed.  Long-term resistance: 1.0620 – 1.0650. The next resistance is at 1.0770-1.0780. Support: 1.0340 – 1.0420 The British pound DatE Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions Change Open Interest Change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Jun 7, 2022 258623 34618 105428 -70810 5742 3830 535 3295 Weak bullish May 31, 2022 252881 30788 104893 -74105 -983 4852 -1415 6267 Weak bearish May 24, 2022 253864 25936 106308 -80372 53 -677 454 -1131 Bearish May 17, 2022 253811 26613 105854 -79241 -10783 -2856 -3213 357 Weak bearish May 10 2022 264594 29469 109067 -79598 -3902 -4067 1718 -5785 Bearish May 03, 2022 268496 33536 107349 -73813 -4296 -6900 -2708 -4192 Bearish         Total Change -14169 -5818 -4629 -1189     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBP/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week reached - 70,810 contracts, having increased by 3,295 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth in long positions by 3,830 contracts and the growth in short positions by 535 contracts. This suggests weak bearish sentiment as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, but at the same time there has been an increase in them. Open interest rose by 5742 contracts last week, indicating that the downward movement in the pound that occurred last week was supported by volume and it was therefore a strong price action. The pound is weakening strongly in the current risk off sentiment and has reached its long term support. Long-term resistance: 1.2440 – 1.2476.    Support: 1.2160 – 1.2200   The Australian dollar   DatE Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions Change Open Interest Change Long Change Short Change Net Positions Sentiment Jun 7, 2022 166422 31720 79616 -47896 12761 -1177 -1963 786 Weak bearish May 31, 2022 153661 32897 81579 -48682 -4954 -3682 -446 -3236 Bearish May 24, 2022 158615 36579 82025 -45446 -5194 -4894 -4090 -804 Bearish May 17, 2022 163809 41473 86115 -44642 10600 4604 7532 -2928 Bearish May 10, 2022 153209 36869 78583 -41714 952 -10126 3072 13198 Bearish May 03, 2022 152257 46995 75511 -28516 5167 -110 755 -865 Bearish         Total Change 19332 -15385 4860 -20245     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUD/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached 47,896 contracts last week, up by 786 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 1,177 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 1,963 contracts. This data suggests weak bearish sentiment on the Australian dollar, as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, but at the same time there was an increase in them in the previous week. There was an increase in open interest of 12,761 contracts last week. This means that the downward movement that occurred last week on the AUD was supported by volume and it was therefore a strong price action. The Australian dollar is weakening sharply even though the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 0.50% last week. The reason for this bearish decline is the current risk-off sentiment which is particularly threatening commodity currencies, which includes the Australian dollar. Long-term resistance: 0.7250-0.7260                                                                                                              Long-term support: 0.6830-0.6850  (the support zone begins at 0.6930 according to a weekly chart).   The New Zealand dollar   DatE Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions Change Open Interest Change Long Change Short Change Net Positions Sentiment Jun 7, 2022 63540 12310 32081 -19771 8406 3131 4178 -1047 Bearish May 31, 2022 55134 9179 27903 -18724 -4145 -1570 -2167 597 Weak bearish May 24, 2022 59279 10749 30070 -19321 -1525 -4249 -2695 -1554 Bearish May 17, 2022 60804 14998 32765 -17767 4569 -205 4566 -4771 Bearish May 10, 2022 56235 15203 28199 -12996 5391 -2224 4162 -6386 Bearish May 03, 2022 50844 17427 24037 -6610 4334 -4658 2018 -6676 Bearish         Total Change 17030 -9775 10062 -19837     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZD/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week amounted to -19,771 contracts, down by 1,047 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 3,131 contracts and an increase in short positions by 4,178 contracts. This data suggests that there has been bearish sentiment on the New Zealand Dollar over the past week as the total net positions of large speculators have been negative and there was further decline in them as well. Open interest rose by 8,406 contracts last week. The downward move in NZD/USD that occurred last week was supported by volume and therefore the move was strong. The NZD/USD bounced off the resistance band at 0.6570 and approached significant support. The decline in the New Zealand Dollar is mainly due to risk off sentiment in equity markets. Long-term resistance: 0.6540 – 0.6570 Long-term support: 0.6220 – 0.6280   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. COT Metals market speculator bets were lower this week as all five of the metals markets we cover had lower positioning this week. Leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Gold (-20,670 contracts) and Copper (-10,083 contracts) with Platinum (-3,719 contracts), Silver (-3,399 contracts) and Palladium (-596 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. Highlighting this week’s COT metals data was the further weakness in bullish bets for the Gold futures contracts. Gold speculators sharply dropped their bullish bets by -20,670 contracts this week and have now seen lower positions for two out of three weeks as well as for the seventh time in the past nine weeks. Over the nine-week time-frame, Gold speculator bets have fallen by a total of -99,689 contracts, going from +254,297 net positions on April 12th to +154,598 net positions this week. These decreases have brought the current level down to the least bullish standing of the past one hundred and fifty-nine weeks, dating back to May 28th of 2019. Despite the speculator weakness, the Gold futures price has not fallen too sharply although prices have cooled off since hitting an almost two-year high of $2,078 on March 8th. The Gold price currently remains trading in its range between approximately $1,800 and $1,884 that has prevailed since early in May and over the longer-term, remains in an uptrend. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Copper (32.4 percent) is the leading pack this week although this score is just slightly above a extreme bearish score. All the other markets are currently in extreme bearish levels (below 20 percent) as speculator sentiment among the metals is very weak at the moment. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Platinum (5.4 percent) and Copper (1.3 percent) are the only two metals with rising trend scores. Gold and Silver are neck and neck for leading the trends to the downside with scores of -22.4 percent (Gold) and -22 percent (Silver), respectively, while Platinum (-7.3 percent) also has a negative trend score for the week. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-14-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,715,674 0 302,946 0 -341,654 100 38,708 70 Gold 497,456 13 154,598 0 -178,569 100 23,971 15 Silver 151,978 18 14,005 0 -22,047 100 8,042 0 Copper 187,247 17 -13,797 32 10,287 67 3,510 46 Palladium 7,740 6 -4,057 0 4,354 100 -297 27 Platinum 66,613 33 2,214 7 -6,793 96 4,579 26 Natural Gas 1,053,265 0 -123,485 42 74,310 54 49,175 96 Brent 171,026 17 -36,389 50 34,601 51 1,788 33 Heating Oil 268,199 23 8,475 55 -28,686 41 20,211 68 Soybeans 754,428 34 182,667 70 -155,663 37 -27,004 25 Corn 1,521,565 25 399,775 81 -344,196 23 -55,579 11 Coffee 202,656 0 46,885 79 -48,399 25 1,514 5 Sugar 800,806 1 170,483 72 -198,006 31 27,523 42 Wheat 336,890 13 20,435 46 -18,089 34 -2,346 98   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 154,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -20,670 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 175,268 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 53.6 24.5 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.5 60.4 4.4 – Net Position: 154,598 -178,569 23,971 – Gross Longs: 266,596 121,926 45,726 – Gross Shorts: 111,998 300,495 21,755 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.4 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 14.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.4 25.7 -31.1   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 14,005 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,399 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,404 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.6 39.6 16.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.4 54.1 10.7 – Net Position: 14,005 -22,047 8,042 – Gross Longs: 57,216 60,161 24,268 – Gross Shorts: 43,211 82,208 16,226 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 0.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.0 21.9 -16.9   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -13,797 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -10,083 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,714 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.3 55.2 8.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 34.6 49.7 6.9 – Net Position: -13,797 10,287 3,510 – Gross Longs: 51,077 103,433 16,449 – Gross Shorts: 64,874 93,146 12,939 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 32.4 66.5 45.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.3 0.1 -11.8   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 2,214 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,719 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,933 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.7 42.3 12.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 34.3 52.5 6.0 – Net Position: 2,214 -6,793 4,579 – Gross Longs: 25,085 28,194 8,597 – Gross Shorts: 22,871 34,987 4,018 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 6.5 95.7 25.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.4 -4.3 -8.8   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -4,057 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -596 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,461 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.5 71.8 14.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 65.9 15.5 18.1 – Net Position: -4,057 4,354 -297 – Gross Longs: 1,045 5,555 1,105 – Gross Shorts: 5,102 1,201 1,402 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 4.6 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 26.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.3 10.7 -34.4   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. There were many really large moves this week in the COT positioning as the data was recorded on Tuesday – just one day ahead of the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 75 basis point increase in the US benchmark Fed Funds rate. Currency market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets (Russian ruble futures positions have not been updated by the CFTC since March) we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for currency market positions was the Canadian dollar (24,264 contracts) and the Japanese yen (21,891 contracts) with the New Zealand dollar (12,933 contracts), Swiss franc (9,324 contracts), US Dollar Index (6,538 contracts), British pound sterling (5,214 contracts), Australian dollar (4,642 contracts), Bitcoin (571 contracts) and Brazil real (508 contracts) also showing positive weeks. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets were the Mexican peso (-59,107 contracts) and the Euro (-56,561 contracts) this week. Currency Speculators Notes: US Dollar Index speculators raised their bullish bets for a second straight week this week and for the seventh time in the past ten weeks. These increases pushed the large speculator standing (+44,476 contracts) to the highest level in the past two hundred and seventy-three weeks, dating back more than five years to March 21st of 2017. The most bullish level ever was +81,270 contracts on March 10th of 2015. The US dollar strength keeps rolling along and the overall standing has now remained bullish for the past fifty consecutive weeks, dating back to July of 2021. The US Dollar Index price has continued its strength as well and reached a high this week of over 105.75 which is the best level for the DXY since back in December of 2002. Euro speculators sharply dropped their positions this week by the most on record with a huge decline of -56,561 contracts. This record decline beat out the previous high of -52,107 contracts that took place on June 19th of 2018. Euro bets had been gaining over the past month and were at a total of +50,543 contracts before this week’s sharp turnaround which has now tipped the overall spec positioning into bearish territory for the first time since January. Japanese yen speculator bets surged this week (+21,891 contracts) and gained for the fifth straight week. Yen speculator positions have been in bearish territory for over a year and have been extremely week since many central banks around the world started raising their interest rates. The Bank of Japan has not raised rates and has signaled that it will not do so, creating large interest rate differentials compared to the other major currencies. Despite the spec bets increase this week, the yen exchange rate came under further pressure this week with the USDJPY price closing over the 135.00 exchange rate (and remaining near 20-year highs). Mexican Peso speculator bets fell sharply by -59,381 contracts this week and flipped the MXN speculator positioning from bullish to bearish. The weekly speculator decline is the largest fall in the past thirteen weeks and the decrease into a bearish standing is the first time since March 29th. Canadian dollar bets jumped this week by the most in the past seventy-seven weeks and brought the speculator position back into bullish territory for the first time in six weeks. CAD speculator bets have now gained for four straight weeks and the overall spec standing is residing at the highest level since July 2021. New Zealand dollar speculators also boosted their bets this week after the NZD positions had dropped in six out of the previous seven weeks. This week’s rise in weekly bets was the most in the past thirteen weeks but the overall speculator standing remains in bearish territory for the seventh straight week. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Dollar Index (100 percent), Bitcoin (100 percent) and the Brazilian Real (96.8 percent) are leading the strength scores and are all in extreme bullish positions. On the downside, the Mexican peso (16.1 percent) has fallen into extreme bearish positioning followed by the Japanese yen (25.9 percent) and British pound (26.7 percent) which are just above the 20 percent extreme bearish threshold. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the US Dollar Index (19.5 percent), Japanese yen (19.1 percent) and Swiss franc (18 percent) have the highest six-week trend scores currently. The Mexican peso also leads the trends on the downside with a -17.5 percent trend change. Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-14-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 61,144 91 44,476 100 -47,736 0 3,260 52 EUR 668,164 69 -6,018 33 -28,495 68 34,513 32 GBP 238,322 63 -65,596 27 81,063 78 -15,467 24 JPY 232,513 77 -69,755 26 86,443 78 -16,688 20 CHF 39,362 20 -6,808 39 18,147 72 -11,339 19 CAD 175,219 47 23,202 65 -30,284 43 7,082 44 AUD 142,857 39 -43,254 45 44,710 52 -1,456 49 NZD 45,410 35 -6,838 60 9,773 45 -2,935 18 MXN 197,375 48 -26,381 16 23,148 82 3,233 57 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 69,931 67 47,213 97 -48,458 4 1,245 79 Bitcoin 12,242 68 1,061 100 -947 0 -114 10   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 44,476 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,538 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,938 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 86.9 2.9 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.2 80.9 3.8 – Net Position: 44,476 -47,736 3,260 – Gross Longs: 53,133 1,752 5,553 – Gross Shorts: 8,657 49,488 2,293 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.1 to 1 0.0 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 52.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 19.2 -19.1 7.1   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -6,018 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -56,561 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,543 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.0 54.1 12.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.9 58.3 7.5 – Net Position: -6,018 -28,495 34,513 – Gross Longs: 206,986 361,159 84,823 – Gross Shorts: 213,004 389,654 50,310 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.2 67.9 31.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.1 -1.1 5.9   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -65,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,214 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -70,810 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.3 77.2 8.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.8 43.2 15.1 – Net Position: -65,596 81,063 -15,467 – Gross Longs: 29,343 184,011 20,625 – Gross Shorts: 94,939 102,948 36,092 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.7 77.6 23.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.9 -4.7 -0.5   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -69,755 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 21,891 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -91,646 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.0 75.6 9.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 44.0 38.4 16.8 – Net Position: -69,755 86,443 -16,688 – Gross Longs: 32,441 175,789 22,340 – Gross Shorts: 102,196 89,346 39,028 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 25.9 77.8 19.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 19.1 -16.5 5.7   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -6,808 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,324 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,132 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.9 66.2 22.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.2 20.1 51.7 – Net Position: -6,808 18,147 -11,339 – Gross Longs: 4,291 26,045 9,026 – Gross Shorts: 11,099 7,898 20,365 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 3.3 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.2 72.4 19.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 18.0 -19.8 17.9   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 23,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 24,264 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,062 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.3 45.1 16.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.0 62.4 12.7 – Net Position: 23,202 -30,284 7,082 – Gross Longs: 56,550 79,064 29,357 – Gross Shorts: 33,348 109,348 22,275 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.4 43.5 44.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.9 -14.4 6.3   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -43,254 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,642 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,896 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.2 59.9 14.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.4 28.6 16.0 – Net Position: -43,254 44,710 -1,456 – Gross Longs: 31,660 85,591 21,342 – Gross Shorts: 74,914 40,881 22,798 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.7 52.2 48.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.7 7.8 10.4   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -6,838 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,933 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,771 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.8 61.8 4.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 47.9 40.3 11.4 – Net Position: -6,838 9,773 -2,935 – Gross Longs: 14,894 28,062 2,236 – Gross Shorts: 21,732 18,289 5,171 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.8 45.5 18.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.4 -0.2 3.8   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -26,381 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -59,107 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,726 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 57.8 38.3 3.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 71.2 26.5 1.5 – Net Position: -26,381 23,148 3,233 – Gross Longs: 114,093 75,532 6,170 – Gross Shorts: 140,474 52,384 2,937 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.4 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.1 82.5 56.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.5 17.4 -2.9   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 47,213 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 508 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,705 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 83.0 12.5 4.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.5 81.8 2.8 – Net Position: 47,213 -48,458 1,245 – Gross Longs: 58,023 8,711 3,197 – Gross Shorts: 10,810 57,169 1,952 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.4 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 96.8 4.0 79.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.3 -5.0 -4.0   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,061 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 490 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 81.7 0.5 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 73.0 8.2 9.2 – Net Position: 1,061 -947 -114 – Gross Longs: 9,996 62 1,008 – Gross Shorts: 8,935 1,009 1,122 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 10.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.3 -30.9 -3.5   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

The Swing Overview - Week 24 We've had a week in which the world's major stock indices took a bloodbath in response to rising inflation, which is advancing faster than expected. Central banks have played a major part in this drama. As expected, the US, the UK and, surprisingly, Switzerland raised interest rates. Japan, on the other hand, is still one of the few countries that decided to keep interest rates at their original level of - 0.10%. Macroeconomic data The 0.75% interest rate hike to 1.75%, which was 0.25% higher than the Fed announced at the last meeting, might not have come as a surprise to the markets given that inflation for May was 8.6% on year-on-year basis (8.3% for April). The market reacted strongly in response to the inflation data, and a sell-off in equity indices and a strengthening US dollar followed.   The 0.75% rate hike is the highest since 1994 and the next Fed meeting is expected to see another rate hike again in the range of 0.50% to 0.75%. The Fed is trying to stop rising inflation with this aggressive approach. The problem is that economic projections point to slowing economic growth. Retail data for May fell by 0.3%, which was a surprise to the markets. This is the first drop in consumer spending in 2022. The Fed also lowered GDP growth projections and unemployment is expected to rise as well. All of this points to the risk of stagflation.     But the labour market data is still good. The number of initial claims in unemployment reached 229k last week, down from 232k the previous week. The US dollar hit a new high for the year at 105.86 in response to high inflation and a faster tightening economy. The US 10-year bond yields also rose, reaching 3.479%. Figure 1: The US 10-year bond yields and the USD index on the daily chart   The SP 500 Index The SP 500 index, like other global indices, was in a bloodbath last week as data on rising US inflation in particular surprised. Major supports according to the H4 chart were very quickly broken and the market is showing that it is still in a bearish mood. According to the daily chart, another lower low has formed which together with the lower highs confirms this bearish trend.   Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   A support according to the H4 chart is in the 3,645 - 3,675 range. The nearest resistance is at 3,820 - 3,835. A broken support in the 3,710 - 3,732 area can also be considered as resistance. The most important news is behind us and the market could take a breath for a while. The low levels could also be noticed by long-term investors who will be buying dip. But for speculators, it is very risky to speculate on a market reversal in a downtrend.   German DAX index The German DAX index offers a very similar picture to the SP 500. The ZEW economic sentiment indicator in Germany for the month of June showed a deterioration in sentiment among institutional investors and analysts, with the index reading coming in at -28.0. The ongoing war in Ukraine is undoubtedly influencing this pessimism. The end of this tragic event is still not in sight. What is clear, however, is that the longer the conflict continues, the stronger the impact on the European economy will be.    Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The DAX is in a clear downtrend and broke through significant support at 13,300 last week. The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is 13,250 - 13,300. Significant resistance is at 13,650 - 13,700. A new support according to the H4 chart is at 12,950 - 12,980.   The euro has rejected lower readings  Information about higher inflation in the US and a rate hike sent the EUR/USD pair to support levels at 1.0370. However, the level was not broken and the euro then took a strong move from this area. Investors seem to assume that the ECB will have to respond with a higher than 0.25% rate hike announced at the last meeting. Figure 4: The EUR/USD on H4 and daily chart According to the H4 chart, the nearest resistance is at 1.0560 - 1.0600. The next resistance is then at 1.0760-1.0770. Current support is at 1.0340 - 1.0370 according to the daily chart.   The Bank of England raised rates as expected Rising inflation did not leave the Bank of England in dovish mood as it raised its key rate by 0.25% as expected. The current rate is 1.25%. Inflation may be approaching double digits, but the bank could not afford to be more aggressive. In Britain, economic activity has already fallen and the GDP is falling at its fastest pace in a year. On a month-on-month basis, the GDP in Britain fell by 0.3%.  Manufacturing production fell by 1% in April. Figure 5: The GBP/USD on H4 and daily chart The GBP/USD currency pair had a very dramatic week, first breaking below 1.20, only to stage an unprecedented rally later. Anyway, according to the H4 chart and also the daily chart, the pound is below the SMA 100 moving average, which indicates a bearish sentiment. There are also clear lower lows and lower highs on the daily chart, confirming the downtrend.   The UK interest rate hike did send the GBP/USD currency pair to 1.24, but the price did not stay there for long time as the pound descended from higher values, underlining the overall downtrend. The nearest resistance is at 1.24. A support is then at 1.1930 - 1.2000.   Central Bank of Japan still dovish   In the early hours of Friday morning, the Bank of Japan was also deciding on rates. There, as expected, everything remains as it was, i.e. the rate remains negative at - 0.10%. This situation means a favourable interest rate differential between the US dollar and the Japanese yen in favour of the dollar. It is therefore no surprise that the USD/JPY pair has reached its highest level since 2002. However, the weak yen is a big problem for the Japanese economy, as it makes imports of basic manufacturing raw materials more expensive and thus contributes to inflation. Figure 6: The USD/JPY on H4 and monthly charts The USD/JPY pair has reached the resistance level at 134.5 - 135.0, the highest level since 2002. A support according to the H4 chart is at 131.50 - 131.80.  

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. COT metals market speculator bets were mostly higher for the week as three out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Gold (8,689 contracts) and Silver (4,414 contracts) with Palladium (11 contracts) also showing a small positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Copper (-7,141 contracts) while Platinum (-723 contracts) also registered lower bets on the week. Notes: Highlighting the data for metals this week is the Gold positioning. Gold speculative positions rebounded a bit this week after seeing a sharp decline last week of over -20,000 contracts. The Gold net position has been mostly on the defensive since March 8th when the spec level had reached a total of +274,388 contracts which was a 61-week high, dating back to January 5th of 2021. Since then, the overall bullish position has shed a total of -111,101 contracts to settle at this week’s net standing of +163,287 contracts (just 4.4 percent level of its 3-year range). The Gold futures price, however, remains in an uptrend on the daily charts and is sitting right on a significant upward trendline that started in March of 2021. Silver positioning, much like Gold’s, has been under pressure over the past fifteen weeks. On March 8th, Silver bets reached a forty-three week high at +52,297 contracts, coinciding with the Silver futures price hitting a 2022 high of $27.49. Since then, speculator bets have cooled and have fallen in ten out of the past fifteen weeks (and by a total of -33,878 contracts) to this week’s standing of just +18,419 contracts. The Silver futures price has been on a downtrend since April, currently trading at just over $21.00 and possibly on its way towards the significant psychological level of $20.00. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Copper (27 percent) remains the only precious metals futures market that is not in an extreme bearish level (below 20 percent). A rising interest rate environment with a strong US Dollar has weighed on the precious metals category as speculator futures sentiment continues to be really weak at the moment. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that Gold (-15.1 percent) and Palladium (-4.5 percent) lead the downward trends over the past six weeks. Copper (1.2 percent) and Platinum (0.2 percent) are the only two markets with positive trends over the time period. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-21-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,658,636 0 289,502 0 -323,915 100 34,413 64 Gold 500,276 14 163,287 4 -186,929 96 23,642 14 Silver 145,356 12 18,419 7 -27,250 93 8,831 4 Copper 187,170 17 -20,938 27 18,928 72 2,010 37 Palladium 7,641 6 -4,046 0 4,511 100 -465 17 Platinum 64,946 30 1,491 6 -6,397 96 4,906 30 Natural Gas 1,030,971 0 -130,869 39 85,977 58 44,892 86 Brent 173,098 18 -38,010 47 36,052 53 1,958 36 Heating Oil 268,818 23 9,564 56 -28,204 41 18,640 63 Soybeans 745,494 32 178,379 68 -152,968 38 -25,411 28 Corn 1,512,152 23 380,169 79 -326,474 25 -53,695 12 Coffee 192,832 0 49,371 81 -52,348 22 2,977 20 Sugar 779,773 0 163,111 70 -181,280 34 18,169 30 Wheat 320,326 6 19,067 44 -15,407 38 -3,660 91   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 163,287 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,689 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 154,598 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 53.6 24.0 8.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.0 61.4 4.1 – Net Position: 163,287 -186,929 23,642 – Gross Longs: 268,119 120,045 44,380 – Gross Shorts: 104,832 306,974 20,738 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.6 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 4.4 96.0 13.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.1 19.7 -38.5   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 18,419 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,414 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,005 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.2 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.5 37.7 17.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.8 56.5 11.1 – Net Position: 18,419 -27,250 8,831 – Gross Longs: 54,451 54,828 25,018 – Gross Shorts: 36,032 82,078 16,187 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 6.9 93.4 4.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.0 4.2 -13.8   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -20,938 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,141 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,797 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.8 55.5 9.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.0 45.3 8.0 – Net Position: -20,938 18,928 2,010 – Gross Longs: 50,230 103,789 16,909 – Gross Shorts: 71,168 84,861 14,899 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.3 72.5 36.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.2 -0.2 -7.9   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 1,491 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -723 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,214 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 39.5 43.9 13.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.2 53.7 5.4 – Net Position: 1,491 -6,397 4,906 – Gross Longs: 25,676 28,487 8,413 – Gross Shorts: 24,185 34,884 3,507 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 5.5 96.2 30.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.2 -1.4 12.5   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -4,046 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 11 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,057 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.2 74.0 12.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 66.2 15.0 18.6 – Net Position: -4,046 4,511 -465 – Gross Longs: 1,009 5,655 960 – Gross Shorts: 5,055 1,144 1,425 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 4.9 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.1 100.0 17.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.5 6.0 -16.0   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

What role does the broker infrastructure model play in your profitability? The layout of a broker's trading infrastructure is usually not something that would capture the attention of too many traders. However, did you know that a surprisingly large number of brokers do not send their clients' trade orders to the real market, but rather create an artificial counterparty themselves are market makers? This creates motivation for order manipulation, which, on the other hand, is indeed something that traders should be interested in. What is the broker infrastructure model? The broker model refers to the way in which a broker's trading infrastructure is built to process the trading orders of its clients. While it may seem that way, when trading, an order entered by you into the platform may not always travel to the interbank market where it is then expected to be paired with an order from another trader or institution. In fact, there are models that do not send your trade orders to the interbank market. Instead, they form a counterparty to your order immediately, on their side. Market maker model (MM) Brokers of this type are usually among the larger ones on the scene. In order to act as a counterparty to all their clients' trades, they need to have a really high level of liquidity. However, this could lend them a fair amount of motivation to meddle with the trading results of their clients. If it is a proven broker without a dark past, there is probably no reason to worry. However, there are known cases where even larger brokerage firms have artificially increased slippages, set minimum stop loss intervals, or influenced their clients' transactions in other similar ways. The reason for this behavior is quite clear. In the MM model, all losing client trades go back to the broker (not to the interbank market, where they would end up in other broker operating models). Thus, brokers built on the MM model may have a vested interest in the loss-making performance of their own clients.   Figure 1: Schematic of the MM broker's operation STP model From the "straight-through processing", brokers of this type have their infrastructure set up in such a way that they can only match their clients' orders with orders from so-called liquidity providers in the interbank market. The broker in this case charges a commission on each trade in the form of a slightly higher spread and matches clients with entities in the real market. Liquidity providers (LP) The quality of an STP broker is largely shaped by the nature of the liquidity providers with which it works.   Another broker operating on a market maker model or a bank. MFT - multilateral trading facility - a type of exchange on which different participants are linked together. Prime of primes - this provider collects prices from the interbank market and combines them with other offers from financial institutions. This LP thus has the ability to provide the best prices to the broker's clients.   Figure 2: Difference between STP and MM broker model Hybrid model Combination of STP and MM models. A broker based on the hybrid model has the ability to send a certain part of client orders to the interbank market and act as a counterparty for the rest. The broker thus has the ability to "get rid" of profitable clients by sending their orders to an external entity. How to find out which model is broker built on? Recognizing a broker's model may not be easy at first as it requires at least a partial orientation on the broker's website. The safe bet, however, is to check the broker's license directly on the Regulators website. The information about the infrastructure model is listed there in black and white. Just look up whether the broker is authorised to "deal on own account". STP model brokerage will not have it there. Figure 3: An example of the types of services Purple Trading can perform under its license (source: https://www.cysec.gov.cy/en-GB/entities/investment-firms/cypriot/72454/) What role does the broker model play in your profitability? While there is no way to equate a broker's model with the profitability of its clients, there are certain things that cannot be overlooked. While an STP broker has the same rate of earnings whether your trade is successful or not (because it profits from spreads), the MM and hybrid models can already benefit from your potential failures. Let's also mention the fact that by forming a counterparty to your trades on their side, these brokers potentially have the motivation to manipulate the market to their advantage. So as a trader, you logically have to wonder whether a broker who has such tools in his hand is not abusing them to enrich himself at your expense.

The Swing Overview – Week 25 There was a rather quiet week in which the major world stock indices shook off previous losses and have been slowly rising since Monday. However, this is probably only a temporary correction of the current bearish trend.  The CNB Bank Board met for the last time in its old composition and raised the interest rate to 7%, the highest level since 1999. However, the koruna barely reacted to this increase. The reason is that the main risks are still in place and fear of a recession keeps the markets in a risk-off sentiment that benefits the US dollar. Macroeconomic data We had a bit of a quiet week when it comes to macroeconomic data in the US. Industrial production data was reported, which grew by 0.2% month-on-month in May, which is less than the growth seen in April, when production grew by 1.4%. While the growth is slower than expected, it is still growth, which is a positive thing.   In terms of labor market data, the number of jobless claims held steady last week, reaching 229k. Thus, compared to the previous week, the number of claims fell by 2 thousand.   The US Dollar took a break in this quiet week and came down from its peak which is at 106, 86. Overall, however, the dollar is still in an uptrend. The US 10-year bond yields also fell last week and are currently hovering around 3%. The fall in bond yields was then a positive boost for equity indices. Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields and USD index on the daily chart   The SP 500 Index The SP 500 index has been gaining since Monday, June 20, 2022. However, this is probably not a signal of a major bullish reversal. Fundamental reasons still rather speak for a weakening and so it could be a short-term correction of the current bearish trend. The rise is probably caused by long-term investors who were buying the dip. Next week the US will report the GDP data which could be the catalyst for further movement.  Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   The index has currently reached the resistance level according to the H4 chart, which is in the region of 3,820 - 3,836. The next strong resistance is then in the area of 3,870 - 3,900 where the previous support was broken and turned into the resistance. The current nearest support is 3 640 - 3 670.    German DAX index The manufacturing PMI for June came in at 52.0. The previous month's PMI was 54.8. While a value above 50 indicates an expected expansion, it must be said that the PMI has essentially been declining since February 2022. This, together with other data coming out of Germany, suggests a certain pessimism, which is also reflected in the DAX index. Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The DAX broke support according to the H4 chart at 12,950 - 12,980 but then broke back above that level, so we don't have a valid breakout. Overall, however, the DAX is in a downtrend and the technical analysis does not show a stronger sign of a reversal of this trend yet. The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is 13,130 - 13,190. The next resistance is then at 13 420 - 13 440. Strong support according to the daily chart is 12,443 - 12,600.   Eurozone inflation at a new record Consumer inflation in the Eurozone for May rose by 8.1% year-on-year as expected by analysts. On a month-on-month basis, inflation added 0.8% compared to April. The rise in inflation could support the ECB's decision to raise rates possibly by more than the 0.25% expected so far, which is expected to happen at the July meeting.  Figure 4: EUR/USD on H4 and daily chart From a technical perspective, the euro has bounced off support on the pair with the US dollar according to the daily chart, which is in the 1.0340 - 1.0370 range and continues to strengthen. Overall, however, the pair is still in a downtrend. The US Fed has been much more aggressive in fighting inflation than the ECB and this continues to put pressure on the bearish trend in the euro. The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is at 1.058 - 1.0600. Strong resistance according to the daily chart is at 1.0780 - 1.0800.   The Czech National Bank raised the interest rate again Rising inflation, which has already reached 16% in the Czech Republic, forced the CNB's board to raise interest rates again. The key interest rate is now at 7%. The last time the interest rate was this high was in 1999. This is the last decision of the old Bank Board. In August, the new board, which is not clearly hawkish, will decide on monetary policy. Therefore, it will be very interesting to see how they approach the rising inflation.   The current risks, according to the CNB, are higher price growth at home and abroad, the risk of a halt in energy supplies from Russia and generally rising inflation expectations. The lingering risk is, of course, the war in Ukraine. The CNB has also decided to continue intervening in the market to keep the Czech koruna exchange rate within acceptable limits and prevent it from depreciating, which would increase import inflation pressures. Figure 5: The USD/CZK and The EUR/CZK on the daily chart Looking at the charts, the koruna hardly reacted at all to the CNB's decision to raise rates sharply. Against the dollar, the koruna is weakening somewhat, while against the euro the koruna is holding its value around 24.60 - 24.80. The appreciation of the koruna after the interest rate hike was probably prevented by uncertainty about how the new board will treat inflation, and also by the fact that there is a risk-off sentiment in global markets and investors prefer so-called safe havens in such cases, which include the US dollar.  

Image credit: Diverse Stock Photos || Would that those shiny coins were the real thing. Metal coins are real. Code, not so. As I have said before, look at the underlying economics of an investment rather than its external form. It doesn’t matter whether it is public or private. The form of an investment does not affect its returns, for the most part. I grew up in investing as a risk manager within life insurance and fixed income. We faced three main risks: credit, liquidity, and duration. We had lesser risks as well, like FX, sovereigns, convexity, etc. My main goal was to see the firm survive under all reasonable circumstances. My secondary goal was to improve profitability over those same circumstances. In doing that, we could make some small “side bets.” Buy an underpriced Canadian dollar bond. Buy a broken convertible bond of a beaten down company. Buy underpriced MBS where the models are overstating refinancing risk. Things like that. We could not make those side bets too large, but we could put a few on to try to make some money for the firm. We would match assets against our likely liability cashflows. We knew that 99%+ of the time, we would be fine. I can’t imagine what the so-called crypto banks are thinking. Much as they deride banking generally, they don’t have the vaguest idea of what they are doing. They should hire an investment actuary to limit what they do. Imagine a world where banks don’t care about currency risk, and some fail because the temptation to reach for yield causes them to buy asset in currencies that are weak… leading them to lose capital on net. This is the nature of crypto lending and borrowing. As Aristotle might have said, “Crypto is sterile.” It doesn’t produce anything. So don’t lend out crypto for a return… you may lose you principal in the process. There is no good reason why you should earn a return exceeding Treasuries plus 1% in lending crypto. But no one in crypto considers risk control. In one sense, I’m not sure how it could be done, unless you limit yourself to one major cryptocurrency — Bitcoin or Ethereum. The grand questions should be: Can I be sure of making payments over the next three months?Is my leverage low enough that the mélange of assets that I own will be able to cover my liabilities? Is there anything I can do to promote long-term survival? With cryptocurrency banks and stablecoins these concerns are ignored. They take risks that no bank or insurance company would take and with far less capital than would be reasonable. I encourage you to sell your crypto and buy gold, stocks, bonds, and other dollar-denominated assets.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Currency market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while four markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for currency markets was the Mexican peso (12,890 contracts) and the British pound sterling (10,129 contracts) with the Japanese yen (5,884 contracts), Euro (5,009 contracts), Canadian dollar (4,992 contracts), New Zealand dollar (112 contracts) and Bitcoin (39 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Brazilian real (-7,317 contracts) and the Australian dollar (-2,374 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (-1,781 contracts) and the Swiss franc (-1,434 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. Highlighting the currency contracts this week was the cool off in bearish bets for both the British pound and the Japanese yen. British pound sterling speculator positions rose for the fifth straight week and this week’s improvement pushed the overall position to the least bearish standing of the past eleven weeks. The GBP speculative standing has been in a continual bearish position since the middle of February but has come down from a total of -80,372 contracts on May 24th to a total of -53,118 contracts this week after the past five week’s improvement (by 27,254 contracts). The GBPUSD exchange rate has remained in a downtrend despite the recent cool off in speculator sentiment and touched below the 1.20 exchange this week for the second time this month. Japanese yen speculator bets rose for the seventh straight week this week and reached the least bearish position of the past 27 weeks. Japanese yen bets have been sharply bearish for over a year were at -110,454 contracts as recently as May 10th. The past seven weeks have shaved 57,884 contracts off the bearish level and brought the current speculative position to a total of -52,570 contracts this week. The exchange rate for the USDJPY currency pair remains at the top of its range (yen weakness) and near 20-year highs around 135.00. In other currency contracts, the US Dollar Index speculator positions slid a bit this week after rising for six out of the previous seven weeks. The Dollar Index spec position had hit a new 5-year high last week at over +45,000 contracts and was at a 100 percent strength score (measured against past 3-years spec positioning). This week’s decline doesn’t dent the overall position much as the net position remains over +43,000 contracts for the third straight week. The Dollar Index futures price has remained strongly in an uptrend and reached a high over 105 this week before closing just below that figure at 104.91.   Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bitcoin (100 percent), the US Dollar Index (97 percent) and the Brazilian real (87 percent) are currently near the top of their ranges and in bullish extreme levels. The Mexican peso at 21 percent is at the lowest strength level currently and followed by the Euro at 32 percent. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the Japanese yen (31 percent) is on the greatest move of the past six weeks. The Canadian dollar (27 percent), New Zealand dollar (21 percent) and the Swiss franc (20 percent) round out the top movers in the latest data. The Mexican peso at -18 percent leads the downtrending currencies followed by the Euro at -10 percent and the Brazilian real at -1 percent. Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-28-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 63,143 96 43,229 97 -46,558 2 3,329 53 EUR 671,472 70 -10,596 32 -19,812 70 30,408 25 GBP 228,736 57 -53,118 36 70,230 71 -17,112 20 JPY 213,767 64 -52,570 37 67,895 69 -15,325 22 CHF 40,123 21 -8,591 35 17,862 72 -9,271 26 CAD 142,584 25 9,097 50 -12,247 59 3,150 36 AUD 139,891 37 -42,980 45 47,163 54 -4,183 42 NZD 40,337 25 -5,311 62 8,551 44 -3,240 14 MXN 193,536 46 -13,980 21 9,107 77 4,873 64 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 60,107 54 37,028 87 -38,531 14 1,503 82 Bitcoin 13,707 78 1,085 100 -947 0 -138 10   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 43,229 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,781 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,010 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 86.5 3.7 8.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.1 77.4 3.2 – Net Position: 43,229 -46,558 3,329 – Gross Longs: 54,646 2,340 5,371 – Gross Shorts: 11,417 48,898 2,042 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.8 to 1 0.0 to 1 2.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 97.0 1.9 52.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.7 -11.2 0.4   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -10,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,009 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,605 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.2 56.6 12.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.8 59.6 8.0 – Net Position: -10,596 -19,812 30,408 – Gross Longs: 189,414 380,084 83,853 – Gross Shorts: 200,010 399,896 53,445 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.7 70.4 24.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.5 9.0 -1.3   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -53,118 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 10,129 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,247 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.4 74.7 7.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.6 44.0 15.4 – Net Position: -53,118 70,230 -17,112 – Gross Longs: 35,184 170,967 18,055 – Gross Shorts: 88,302 100,737 35,167 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 35.7 71.2 20.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 18.8 -14.3 -4.2   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -52,570 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,884 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,454 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.1 71.1 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.6 39.4 17.6 – Net Position: -52,570 67,895 -15,325 – Gross Longs: 36,462 152,071 22,379 – Gross Shorts: 89,032 84,176 37,704 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 36.5 68.8 22.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 30.6 -23.0 -5.2   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,591 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,434 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,157 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.3 64.8 23.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.7 20.3 47.0 – Net Position: -8,591 17,862 -9,271 – Gross Longs: 4,523 25,994 9,588 – Gross Shorts: 13,114 8,132 18,859 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 3.2 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 34.7 72.0 26.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.3 -21.2 18.0   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 9,097 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,992 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,105 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.2 45.9 20.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.8 54.5 18.5 – Net Position: 9,097 -12,247 3,150 – Gross Longs: 45,893 65,407 29,537 – Gross Shorts: 36,796 77,654 26,387 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.6 58.5 36.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 26.5 -20.7 2.5   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -42,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,374 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,606 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.6 61.7 14.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.4 28.0 17.1 – Net Position: -42,980 47,163 -4,183 – Gross Longs: 28,887 86,347 19,791 – Gross Shorts: 71,867 39,184 23,974 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.0 54.1 42.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.5 -5.4 13.7   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -5,311 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 112 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,423 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.1 64.9 5.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 42.2 43.7 13.6 – Net Position: -5,311 8,551 -3,240 – Gross Longs: 11,720 26,167 2,256 – Gross Shorts: 17,031 17,616 5,496 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 62.4 43.6 14.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.9 -19.8 4.4   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -13,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,890 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,870 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 55.3 40.9 3.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 62.5 36.1 1.1 – Net Position: -13,980 9,107 4,873 – Gross Longs: 107,031 79,060 7,059 – Gross Shorts: 121,011 69,953 2,186 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1 3.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 21.4 76.6 63.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.0 17.2 3.6   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 37,028 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,317 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,345 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 71.7 22.8 5.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 10.1 86.9 3.0 – Net Position: 37,028 -38,531 1,503 – Gross Longs: 43,088 13,691 3,307 – Gross Shorts: 6,060 52,222 1,804 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.1 to 1 0.3 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 86.8 13.7 82.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.0 0.9 1.9   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,085 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 39 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,046 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 81.3 0.8 6.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 73.3 7.7 7.5 – Net Position: 1,085 -947 -138 – Gross Longs: 11,137 115 890 – Gross Shorts: 10,052 1,062 1,028 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 2.8 9.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.1 -4.2 -4.7   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

The Swing Overview - Week 26 2022 After ashort-term upward correction, the indices resumed their bearish trend and closed the week in the red. Along with this risk-off sentiment, commodity currencies weakened, as did the British pound and the euro. Gold is losing ground as a means of inflation protection and has fallen back below the USD 1,800 per ounce. The US dollar, on the other hand, is still the strongest currency amid the looming recession. Macroeconomic data The number of new home sales in the US for May reached 696,000, beating expectations of 588,000. This is positive news.   On the other hand, the negative news is the drop in consumer confidence, which reached 98.7 for May (103.2 the previous month). The drop in consumer confidence is expected to affect consumer spendings. It is evident that American consumers are reluctant to spend in times of rising prices and are accumulating savings for the future. This is of course contributing to the economic slowdown and the risk of a recession in the US is thus becoming stronger. This was confirmed by the GDP data, which fell for the third month in a row.   The fall in GDP last month was 1.6%. GDP was therefore negative in 1Q 2022. If it is also negative in 2Q2022, it will be an official confirmation of the recession defined by two negative quarters in a row. Jerome Powell suggested this week that the risk of the economy being damaged by higher rates is less important than restoring price stability. This heightens fears that a slowdown in the US economy will take the whole world down with it. So in times when central banks are tackling inflation, this risk will set the tone for some time.    This situation is positive for the US dollar, which is seen by investors as a safe haven asset in times of uncertainty. The dollar therefore remains close to this year's highs.  Although the yield on 10-year US Treasuries has fallen below 3%, the overall trend in bond yields is still upwards. Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields and USD index on the daily chart   The SP 500 Index The strengthening on the SP 500 Index that we have seen in the week of June 20 was really just a short-term correction to the overall downtrend, as we have previously suggested. Last week saw another sell-off and so the overall downtrend on the index continues.   Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is in the range of 3,810 - 3,820. The next resistance is 3,930 - 3,950. A support is 3 640 - 3 670.    German DAX index  The German Ifo Business Climate Index which measures the expectations of manufacturers, builders and sellers for the next 6 months continued to show a value of 92.3, which is worse than the previous month when the index value was 93.0. The fall in the reading suggests some pessimism, accentuated by current market uncertainties, which include the impact of the war in Ukraine and high inflation, which in Germany for the month of June was 7.6% year-on-year. However, inflation fell by 0.1% month-on-month.   The labour market has also indicated problems. The number of unemployed in Germany rose by 133 000, while the market had expected a fall of 6 000. This was very negative news, which triggered a strong sell-off on the Dax on Thursday. On the other hand, retail sales were positive, rising by 0.6% in May, while a 5.4% decline was recorded in April. Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The DAX has broken support according to the H4 chart at 12,850, which has now become the new resistance, which is in the 12,820 - 12,850 range. The next resistance according to the H4 chart is then at 13,280 - 13,375. The strong support according to the daily chart is 12,443 - 12,620, which price is currently approaching.    Eurozone inflation at a new record Eurozone consumer inflation reached another record high in June, rising by 8.6% year-on-year. This is higher than analysts' expectations, who predicted a rise of 8.4%. Inflation is therefore continuing to rise, so the expectation that the ECB could raise rates by more than 0.25% in July is on target and this could support the euro's growth. On the other hand, there is a strong dollar which could continue to slow down bulls on the euro.   Figure 4: EUR/USD on H4 and daily chart The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is at 1.048 - 1.0500. The next resistance is at 1.0600 - 1.0610. Support is at 1.0360 - 1.0380.   Gold broke the $1,800 price tag The development in gold has once again confirmed that investors prefer US bonds instead of gold, which, in addition to being considered a "safe haven" along with the US dollar, also brings a small but still certain return. The strong dollar is not good news for gold, which has fallen below the key support of USD 1,800 per ounce.  Figure 5: Gold on H4 and daily chart The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is therefore in the zone of USD 1,800 - 1,807 per ounce. Below this resistance we have several supports. The closest one is 1 780 - 1 787 USD per ounce.  

Hi, traders; welcome to Wednesday’s update. With oil tumbling and the USD jumping, we can only think of one pair that benefits from those two moves. The USDCAD is highly driven on both fronts, and the CAD is a commodity currency that generally tracks oil’s fortunes. The USD, well yeh enough said. Last night we saw key moves on oil and the USD. Oil shed up to 10% and briefly traded below the $100 level. The USD shot higher, the index trading above 106.50. Looking at the daily USDCAD chart below, we can see that price continues to trade in a new fast trend after buyers took control on the 8th of June. Since then, we have seen one reaction that set up demand and an HL late in June. Buying has continued into July, with traders retesting key resistance and supply areas that have stood since May. The recent resistance and supply lines up with a longer-term level of supply /resistance that runs back to November 2020. This is our line in the sand that buyers must break to continue the current trend. If we see a break above these levels, it could be ga,e on with 1.31 and 1.32 or higher a possibility. Fail, and we would look for a new move to possibly retest the 1.2850 area. It’s really up to buyers and mainly USD momentum to continue to drive the current buyer move. The Fed minutes are due out today at 04:00 am AEST, and they could play a role in the current short-term USD pulse. USDCAD D1 Chart The post USDCAD set to stall at or break key resistance? appeared first on Eightcap.

Hi traders, welcome to today’s update. We can see demand and support developing for oil on the weekly and daily charts. In today’s update, we will concentrate on the weekly chart. Overall price remains in an uptrend; this trend is long-term as it has been running since April 2020. Since the last spike to 130, we have seen price become choppy, with resistance at $119 – $124 and a new LH confirmed last month. A fast decline occurred after the LH and price briefly broke below the $100 round number. It’s what’s happening below $100 that has our attention at the moment. We can see a strong area of demand from 97.50. Since February this year, each attempt from sellers has failed to break this area. This week so far has been no different. Once again, we have seen a move into this area rejected by buyers in that area. With this in mind, we will see a new rally set up that could end up retesting the resistance area at 122? This all rests on the premise that the demand area can continue to hold. If we did see a break, we would be looking for a new move lower that tests the main trend line. Some of the factors at the moment. Global recession fears, this could continue to drive the USD higher and put pressure on oil due to future demand. Further lockdowns in China could also weigh on demand due to China’s oil demand. Obviously, any new developments regarding Russia could also have a direct impact on supply. Demand increasing or holding firm with price holding above the demand area could be a positive for buyers, but if factors swing against and we see a break of demand, the reaction could be turning into something more significant. Finally, it’s pretty hard to believe right now that oil traded at $7.27 just over 2-years ago! OIL W1 Chart The post Oil pulling away after testing key demand area appeared first on Eightcap.

Overall, it has been a positive week so far for most of the coins. After a pullback from gains last week, buyers have once again come out to try and settle things down. Could this be the start of a foundation being set by buyers that could turn into a new counter rally? More time is required before we can start thinking that’s the case, but for now, things are ok as sellers have stopped being able to set new lower lows. The top 25 index looks similar to a few of the major charts on the weekly. One solid bar up followed by a bar lower that failed to test lows and a new fightback this week that, in some cases, has set new weekly highs or beaten last week’s opening price. What we want to see from the buyer side is a hold of the last key low. If this can remain in play, that could continue to feed ideas that a bottom is trying to come in. For now, most of the coins continue to follow the wider fortunes of risk markets as we have seen a recovery in stock indexes and major risk currencies to the USD. The USD has found buyer demand today, and US employment numbers could add to or hurt that story. While Crypto remains heavily pegged to risk, it might come down to USD demand to see if we see the current lows hold. Our focus today is on Bitcoin. BTCUSD D1 continues to look positive. Price gaining over 13%, hitting 22K. price still remains below the main downtrend line, but we have seen a higher breakout of the consolidation pattern. The key now for buyers in the short term is to break 21,750 resistance. A fail there could see price continue to consolidate, but a break could set up a new test of the main downtrend. The post Crypto Focus: Buyers have once again come out to try and settle things down appeared first on Eightcap.

The Swing Overview - Week 26 2022 After ashort-term upward correction, the indices resumed their bearish trend and closed the week in the red. Along with this risk-off sentiment, commodity currencies weakened, as did the British pound and the euro. Gold is losing ground as a means of inflation protection and has fallen back below the USD 1,800 per ounce. The US dollar, on the other hand, is still the strongest currency amid the looming recession. Macroeconomic data The number of new home sales in the US for May reached 696,000, beating expectations of 588,000. This is positive news.   On the other hand, the negative news is the drop in consumer confidence, which reached 98.7 for May (103.2 the previous month). The drop in consumer confidence is expected to affect consumer spendings. It is evident that American consumers are reluctant to spend in times of rising prices and are accumulating savings for the future. This is of course contributing to the economic slowdown and the risk of a recession in the US is thus becoming stronger. This was confirmed by the GDP data, which fell for the third month in a row.   The fall in GDP last month was 1.6%. GDP was therefore negative in 1Q 2022. If it is also negative in 2Q2022, it will be an official confirmation of the recession defined by two negative quarters in a row. Jerome Powell suggested this week that the risk of the economy being damaged by higher rates is less important than restoring price stability. This heightens fears that a slowdown in the US economy will take the whole world down with it. So in times when central banks are tackling inflation, this risk will set the tone for some time.    This situation is positive for the US dollar, which is seen by investors as a safe haven asset in times of uncertainty. The dollar therefore remains close to this year's highs.  Although the yield on 10-year US Treasuries has fallen below 3%, the overall trend in bond yields is still upwards. Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields and USD index on the daily chart   The SP 500 Index The strengthening on the SP 500 Index that we have seen in the week of June 20 was really just a short-term correction to the overall downtrend, as we have previously suggested. Last week saw another sell-off and so the overall downtrend on the index continues.   Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is in the range of 3,810 - 3,820. The next resistance is 3,930 - 3,950. A support is 3 640 - 3 670.    German DAX index  The German Ifo Business Climate Index which measures the expectations of manufacturers, builders and sellers for the next 6 months continued to show a value of 92.3, which is worse than the previous month when the index value was 93.0. The fall in the reading suggests some pessimism, accentuated by current market uncertainties, which include the impact of the war in Ukraine and high inflation, which in Germany for the month of June was 7.6% year-on-year. However, inflation fell by 0.1% month-on-month.   The labour market has also indicated problems. The number of unemployed in Germany rose by 133 000, while the market had expected a fall of 6 000. This was very negative news, which triggered a strong sell-off on the Dax on Thursday. On the other hand, retail sales were positive, rising by 0.6% in May, while a 5.4% decline was recorded in April. Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The DAX has broken support according to the H4 chart at 12,850, which has now become the new resistance, which is in the 12,820 - 12,850 range. The next resistance according to the H4 chart is then at 13,280 - 13,375. The strong support according to the daily chart is 12,443 - 12,620, which price is currently approaching.    Eurozone inflation at a new record Eurozone consumer inflation reached another record high in June, rising by 8.6% year-on-year. This is higher than analysts' expectations, who predicted a rise of 8.4%. Inflation is therefore continuing to rise, so the expectation that the ECB could raise rates by more than 0.25% in July is on target and this could support the euro's growth. On the other hand, there is a strong dollar which could continue to slow down bulls on the euro.   Figure 4: EUR/USD on H4 and daily chart The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is at 1.048 - 1.0500. The next resistance is at 1.0600 - 1.0610. Support is at 1.0360 - 1.0380.   Gold broke the $1,800 price tag The development in gold has once again confirmed that investors prefer US bonds instead of gold, which, in addition to being considered a "safe haven" along with the US dollar, also brings a small but still certain return. The strong dollar is not good news for gold, which has fallen below the key support of USD 1,800 per ounce.  Figure 5: Gold on H4 and daily chart The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is therefore in the zone of USD 1,800 - 1,807 per ounce. Below this resistance we have several supports. The closest one is 1 780 - 1 787 USD per ounce.  

The Swing Overview - Week 27 2022 The fall in US bond yields, the rise in the US dollar and the sharp weakening in the euro, which is heading towards parity with the dollar. This is how the last week, in which stock indices cautiously strengthened and made a correction in the downward trend, could be characterised. It is worth noting that Germany has a negative trade balance for the first time since May 1991. Is the country losing its reputation as an economic powerhouse of Europe? Macroeconomic data The ISM in manufacturing, which shows purchasing managers' expectations of economic developments in the short term, came in at 53.0 for June.  While a value above 50 still indicates an expected expansion in the sector, the trend since the beginning of the year has been declining, indicating worsening of optimism.   Unemployment claims reached 231,000 last week. This is still a level that is fairly normal. However, we note that this is the 6th week in a row that the number of claims has been rising. The crucial news on the labour market will then be shown in Friday's NFP data.   On Wednesday, the minutes of the last FOMC meeting were presented, which confirmed that another 50-75 point rate hike is likely in July. The minutes also stated that the Fed could tighten further its hawkish policy if inflationary pressures persist. The Fed's target is to push inflation down to around 2%.   The Fed's hawkish tone has led to a strengthening of the dollar, which has reached a level over 107, its highest level since October 2002. Following the presentation of the FOMC minutes, the US Treasury yields started to rise again. Figure 1: The US 10-year bond yields and the USD index on the daily chart   The SP 500 Index The temporary decline in US Treasury yields was the reason for the correction in the bearish trend in equity indices. However, the bear market still continues to be supported fundamentally by fears of an impending recession.  Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is in the 3,930 - 3,950 range. A support is at 3,740 - 3,750 and then 3,640 - 3,670.    German DAX index The German manufacturing PMI for June came in at 52.0 (previous month 54.8). The downward trend shows a deterioration in optimism.    It is worth noting that Germany's trade balance is negative for the first time since May 1991, i.e. imports are higher than exports. The current trade balance is - EUR 1 billion. The market was expecting a surplus of 2.7 billion. Rising prices of imported energy and a reduction in exports to Russia have contributed to the negative balance. Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The DAX is in a downtrend. On the H4 chart, it has reached the moving average EMA 50. The resistance is in the range of 12,900 - 12,960. Strong support on the daily chart is 12,443 - 12,500, which was tested again last week.    Euro is near parity with the USD Even high inflation, which is already at 8.6%, has not stopped the euro from falling. It seems that parity with the dollar could be reached very soon. The negative trade balance in Germany has contributed very significantly to the euro's decline.  Figure 4: EUR/USD on H4 and daily chart The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is at 1.020 - 1.021. Support according to the daily chart would be only at parity with the dollar at 1.00. Reaching this value would represent a unique situation that has not occurred on the EUR/USD pair since 2002.   Australia raised interest rates The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the interest rate by 0.50% as expected. The current interest rate now stands at 1.35%. According to the central bank, the Australian economy has been solid so far thanks to commodity exports, the prices of which have been rising. Unemployment is 3.9%, the lowest level in 50 years.   One uncertainty is the behaviour of consumers, who are cutting back on spending in times of high inflation. A significant risk is global development, which is influenced by the war in Ukraine and its impact on energy and agricultural commodity prices.   Figure 5: The AUD/USD on H4 and daily chart The AUD/USD is in a downtrend and even the rate hike did not help the Australian dollar to strengthen. However, there has been some correction in the downtrend. The resistance according to the H4 chart is 0.6880 - 0.6900. The support is at 0.6760 - 0.6770.  

Happy Monday, traders. We are looking at the GBPUSD today as price has started to show signs that a new lower test could be building. Overall, prices remain in a downtrend, with plenty of LHs and LLs showing a normal pattern of trend. Looking at recent price action, we can see resistance remains in play at 1.2035. Since buyers made their last rally on the 7th, they have not been able to get past that level on the attempts. Today’s bar is mid-range, but sellers are now holding control after the USD set off a firm start to the new week. Looking lower, we see minor support at 1.1915. Buyers so far have defended this level well since the first break on the 5th. A lot will come down to continued USD strength; if this remains, we will look for sellers to get back down and test support. A break and we could see confirmation that a new leg lower is getting underway. A buyer move above resistance cancels out this idea. GBPUSD D1 Chart The post Forex News: GBPUSD set to move lower? appeared first on Eightcap.

Welcome to Wednesday’s update, traders. Today our focus is on oil as price has started to move higher after testing and holding for now at key support. Price continues to trade in a short to medium-term downtrend after sellers turned momentum back in June. Since that point, it’s been a series of LHs and LLs. Today’s price has shown defensive action from buyers after this morning’s lower gap failed to beat 94.90 area support and demand. Could yesterday’s bar be seen as exhaustion? If buyers can hold this level of support, we will be looking for price to continue to push higher. Obviously, if we see a break, then it’s back to looking for new LLs maintaining the downtrend. The MAs remain bearish, but the OBV has stopped putting in clear LLs despite yesterday’s strong move lower. Could support be hiding plenty of fresh demand from oil buyers? We will have to wait and see if buyers can hold the level again today. Data to keep an eye out for today. 10:30 pm US CPI and core CPI. 12:30 am US crude oil inventory numbers. Oil D1 Chart The post CFD News; Oil sees demand after testing key support. appeared first on Eightcap.

Hi traders, today has been an exciting day with strong gains seen from the majors to the JPY. The USD made a late fightback, and we did see new weekly highs on the USD index. Risk majors, as a result, have traded lower to the USD, but for now, the EUR hasn’t gotten back down to parity. The USD strength has lifted one pair to levels not seen in serval months. Oil was another factor as price failed to build on yesterday’s gains and has dropped close to 3% lower. The pair we’re talking about today is the USDCAD. The Bank of Canada raised rates by 2.5% early this morning, and that, combined with weaker oil prices and a firmer USD, helped buyers jump back into the USDCAD. Price has hit 1.15% in gains, and price has broken above the resistance area noted in today’s chart below. The strong surge confirmed an ascending triangle pattern; we are now looking to the two remaining supply areas. If buyers can maintain momentum, could we see a new move back into the 1.32 Handel, a level not seen since 2020 when the market entered into its sharp bear trend that moved back to the 1.20 area. The market has had plenty of time to charge up for this move, and it’s good to see the current breakout coming from a bullish continuation pattern. It will come down to USD momentum and oil strength to help maintain buyer drive. USDCAD D1 Chart The post Forex News; USDCAD above resistance. Will we see a new extension? appeared first on Eightcap.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Currency market speculator bets were lower this week as all of the eleven currency markets we cover had lower positioning on the week. Leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Brazil real (-20,695 contracts) and the Euro (-6,256 contracts) while the Canadian dollar (-4,804 contracts), Australian dollar (-4,641 contracts), US Dollar Index (-3,978 contracts), British pound sterling (-3,090 contracts), Japanese yen (-1,875 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-1,745 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,544 contracts), Bitcoin (-665 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-438 contracts) all saw lower speculator bets for the week. Highlighting the currency futures data this week was the Euro speculator position that fell deeper into bearish territory and dropped for the fourth time in the past five weeks. The speculator position has now decreased by a whopping -69,124 contracts in just the past five weeks and has brought the overall standing to the lowest level since November 30th of 2021, a span of 31 weeks. The Euro price has been strongly on the defensive against the dollar as the EURUSD currency pair this week hit the lowest level since December 0f 2002. The EURUSD fell to a low under the 1.0200 exchange rate on Friday and sets up what seems to be an inevitable test of parity which would also be the first time that has happened since December of 2002. More COT currency notes: US Dollar Index bets fell for a second straight week and dipped below +40,000 contracts for the first time in four weeks. Despite the 2-week decline, the Dollar Index speculator position remains extremely bullish which has seen increases in speculator bets in ten out of the past fifteen weeks. Overall, the Dollar Index positioning has been in bullish territory for fifty-three straight weeks after turning from bearish to bullish on July 6th of 2021. The Dollar Index price this week continued to climb (up 5 out of 6 weeks) and hit the highest level since October of 2002 at above the 107.75 level. Japanese yen speculator bets fell for the first time in the past eight weeks this week. Yen bets remain bearish but have improved strongly over the past few months going from a total of -110,454 contracts on May 10th to a total of -54,445 contracts this week. Despite, the speculator sentiment improvement, the USDJPY currency pair has remained near the top of its range (and close to 20-year highs) at around the 136.00 exchange rate. Brazilian real speculator bets dropped sharply this week by over -20,000 contracts and fell for the third straight week. These declines have brought the BRL position down to the lowest level in the past twenty-two weeks at just +16,333 contracts. The Brazil real price has been on the defensive in the past month as the BRLUSD currency pair fell to a five month low this week near the 0.1850 exchange rate and dropped under its 200-day moving average for the first time since January. Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Dollar Index (90.4 percent) and Bitcoin (87.9 percent) lead the currencies at the top of their respective ranges and are both in bullish extreme positions. The Brazilian real (66.4 percent) comes in as the next highest currency in strength scores but took a large tumble this week to fall out of a bullish extreme level. On the downside, the Mexican peso at 21.2 percent continues to be at the lowest strength level currently and is followed by the Euro at 29.8 percent and the Swiss franc at 30.8 percent. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the Japanese yen (27.7 percent) leads the past six weeks trends once again this week. The Swiss franc (24.2 percent), New Zealand dollar (20.6 percent) and the Canadian dollar (19.1 percent) round out the top movers in the latest data. The Brazilian real (-22.0 percent) saw a huge decrease in speculator positions this week and leads the downside trend scores currently. The next currencies will lower trend scores were the Mexican peso at -18.9 percent followed by the Euro at -17.1 percent. Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Jul-05-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index USD Index 60,857 91 39,251 90 -41,510 10 2,259 41 EUR 673,772 71 -16,852 30 -8,636 74 25,488 17 GBP 240,926 65 -56,208 34 77,009 75 -20,801 13 JPY 217,672 67 -54,445 35 64,063 67 -9,618 34 CHF 38,504 18 -10,135 31 20,075 75 -9,940 24 CAD 145,372 27 4,293 44 -4,533 65 240 31 AUD 146,950 42 -47,621 41 55,708 60 -8,087 33 NZD 45,403 35 -7,056 59 10,521 47 -3,465 12 MXN 197,463 48 -14,418 21 10,096 77 4,322 61 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 39,470 26 16,333 66 -17,398 34 1,065 77 Bitcoin 13,258 75 420 88 -462 0 42 14   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 39,251 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,978 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,229 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 87.0 3.3 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.5 71.5 4.5 – Net Position: 39,251 -41,510 2,259 – Gross Longs: 52,927 2,023 4,993 – Gross Shorts: 13,676 43,533 2,734 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.9 to 1 0.0 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.4 9.9 41.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.0 -1.0 -6.3   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -16,852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,256 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,596 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.3 56.1 12.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.8 57.3 8.5 – Net Position: -16,852 -8,636 25,488 – Gross Longs: 197,138 377,654 82,525 – Gross Shorts: 213,990 386,290 57,037 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 29.8 73.6 16.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.1 18.1 -13.5   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -56,208 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,090 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,118 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.4 74.2 7.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.8 42.2 16.0 – Net Position: -56,208 77,009 -20,801 – Gross Longs: 39,618 178,745 17,693 – Gross Shorts: 95,826 101,736 38,494 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.5 75.2 12.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 17.4 -11.8 -8.6   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -54,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,875 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,570 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.8 68.8 11.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 42.8 39.3 16.1 – Net Position: -54,445 64,063 -9,618 – Gross Longs: 38,660 149,702 25,452 – Gross Shorts: 93,105 85,639 35,070 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 35.3 66.9 33.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 27.7 -20.8 -4.8   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -10,135 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,544 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,591 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.4 69.2 22.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 34.7 17.1 48.2 – Net Position: -10,135 20,075 -9,940 – Gross Longs: 3,218 26,664 8,602 – Gross Shorts: 13,353 6,589 18,542 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 4.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 30.8 75.5 23.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 24.2 -18.5 7.0   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 4,293 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,804 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,097 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.2 46.7 21.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.3 49.8 20.8 – Net Position: 4,293 -4,533 240 – Gross Longs: 45,365 67,829 30,460 – Gross Shorts: 41,072 72,362 30,220 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.2 65.0 30.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 19.1 -9.6 -11.1   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -47,621 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,641 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,980 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.8 64.8 12.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.2 26.9 18.1 – Net Position: -47,621 55,708 -8,087 – Gross Longs: 27,622 95,252 18,508 – Gross Shorts: 75,243 39,544 26,595 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 40.7 60.4 32.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.0 1.8 -0.6   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,745 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,311 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.0 63.9 5.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.6 40.8 13.6 – Net Position: -7,056 10,521 -3,465 – Gross Longs: 13,634 29,029 2,689 – Gross Shorts: 20,690 18,508 6,154 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.4 46.6 11.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.6 -18.8 -1.0   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -14,418 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -438 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,980 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 54.3 41.6 3.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 61.6 36.5 1.3 – Net Position: -14,418 10,096 4,322 – Gross Longs: 107,141 82,106 6,947 – Gross Shorts: 121,559 72,010 2,625 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1 2.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 21.2 77.0 61.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.9 18.5 -1.0   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 16,333 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -20,695 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,028 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 61.5 29.8 7.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 20.1 73.9 5.1 – Net Position: 16,333 -17,398 1,065 – Gross Longs: 24,261 11,776 3,089 – Gross Shorts: 7,928 29,174 2,024 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.1 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 66.4 34.3 77.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.0 22.5 -8.5     Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 420 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -665 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,085 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.3 1.2 8.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 77.1 4.7 7.7 – Net Position: 420 -462 42 – Gross Longs: 10,642 158 1,058 – Gross Shorts: 10,222 620 1,016 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.3 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 87.9 30.9 13.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.8 20.6 1.7   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Weekly Speculator Changes COT currency market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as just three out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts. Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian dollar with a weekly gain of 6,021 contracts while the New Zealand dollar (1,773 contracts) and the Swiss franc (1,411 contracts) also had positive weeks. The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Mexican peso (-8,820 contracts) and the Euro (-8,392 contracts) with the Brazilian real (-6,128 contracts), Japanese yen (-5,553 contracts), British pound sterling (-2,881 contracts), US Dollar Index (-897 contracts), Canadian dollar (-788 contracts) and Bitcoin(-591 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.     Highlighting this week’s COT currency data is the continued decline in the Euro speculator positions which fell for a second straight week and for the fifth time in the past six weeks. Euro bets have now dropped by -77,516 contracts in just the past six weeks, going from +52,272 contracts on May 31st to -25,244 contracts this week. This weakness put the current speculator position at the lowest level since March of 2020 but it is nowhere near the extremely bearish levels of years past (for example: -114,021 contracts in 2020 or -182,845 contracts in 2015). There seems to be a lot of room for the speculator position to fall further. Will this bring the Euro price even lower? That is a fascinating question as the largest currency news story of the past few weeks has been the EURUSD reaching parity for the first time in over twenty years. The EURUSD actually hit 0.9952 on Thursday before closing the week near the 1.0080 exchange rate and with the US Federal Reserve poised to raise interest rates further soon – the EURUSD will likely remain under pressure but how low can it go? The other side of the COT data this week is the continued strength of the US Dollar Index speculator positions. The USD Index speculator bets fell this week for a third straight week but remain very much near their recent highs. Speculative positions recently had three straight weeks of over at least +40,000 net contracts for the first time since 2019 while the speculator position also topped +45,000 contracts (on June 21st) for the first time since March 21st of 2017, a span of 274 weeks. The strong sentiment for the dollar has helped boost the US Dollar Index price to a high over 109.00 this week, reaching the highest level since 2002. With the two largest components of the US Dollar Index, the Euro at 57.6 percent of the index and the Japanese yen at 13.6 percent, so weak at the moment, the DXY might challenge the 110 exchange rate in the weeks to come. Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Jul-12-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 59,565 88 38,354 89 -40,895 11 2,541 44 EUR 682,031 75 -25,244 27 5,760 78 19,484 7 GBP 231,945 59 -59,089 31 75,405 74 -16,316 22 JPY 223,539 71 -59,998 32 75,067 72 -15,069 23 CHF 41,255 23 -8,724 34 19,882 75 -11,158 20 CAD 139,297 23 3,505 43 -4,653 65 1,148 32 AUD 158,263 51 -41,600 46 52,490 58 -10,890 26 NZD 45,837 36 -5,283 62 8,979 44 -3,696 9 MXN 195,611 47 -23,238 17 20,317 81 2,921 55 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 41,034 28 10,205 60 -10,868 41 663 73 Bitcoin 13,505 77 -171 77 -201 0 372 21   Strength Scores Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Dollar Index (88.9 percent) leads the currency markets near the top of its 3-year range and in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Bitcoin (77.2 percent) comes in as the next highest in the currency markets strength scores with the New Zealand Dollar (62.4 percent) and the Brazilian Real (60.4 percent) rounding out the only other markets above 50 percent or above their midpoint for the past 3 years . On the downside, the Mexican Peso (17.4 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and the only one in a bearish extreme level.  The EuroFX (27.3 percent) continues to fall and is the second lowest strength score this week. Strength Statistics: US Dollar Index (88.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (90.4 percent) EuroFX (27.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (29.8 percent) British Pound Sterling (31.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (33.5 percent) Japanese Yen (31.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (35.3 percent) Swiss Franc (34.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (30.8 percent) Canadian Dollar (43.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (44.2 percent) Australian Dollar (46.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (40.7 percent) New Zealand Dollar (62.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (59.4 percent) Mexican Peso (17.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (21.2 percent) Brazil Real (60.4 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (66.4 percent) Russian Ruble (31.2 percent) vs Russian Ruble previous week (31.9 percent) Bitcoin (77.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (87.9 percent) Strength Trends Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Swiss Franc (29.7 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (22.6 percent) and the Japanese Yen (21.2 percent) round out the next highest movers in the latest trends data as the CHF, NZD and the JPY have seen improving sentiment from speculators. The Brazilian Real (-34.5 percent) leads the downside trend scores this week while the next markets with lower trend scores were the Mexican Peso (-25.0 percent) followed by the Euro (-23.8 percent). Strength Trend Statistics: US Dollar Index (1.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (2.0 percent) EuroFX (-23.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-17.1 percent) British Pound Sterling (10.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (17.4 percent) Japanese Yen (21.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (27.7 percent) Swiss Franc (29.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (24.2 percent) Canadian Dollar (11.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (19.1 percent) Australian Dollar (6.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-2.0 percent) New Zealand Dollar (22.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (20.6 percent) Mexican Peso (-25.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-18.9 percent) Brazil Real (-34.5 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (-22.0 percent) Russian Ruble (-15.6 percent) vs Russian Ruble previous week (9.1 percent) Bitcoin (-10.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-7.8 percent) Individual Markets: US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 38,354 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -897 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,251 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 85.8 3.9 9.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.4 72.5 4.7 – Net Position: 38,354 -40,895 2,541 – Gross Longs: 51,109 2,305 5,365 – Gross Shorts: 12,755 43,200 2,824 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.0 to 1 0.1 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.9 10.9 44.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.4 0.7 -13.7   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -25,244 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,392 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,852 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.9 56.5 12.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.6 55.6 9.4 – Net Position: -25,244 5,760 19,484 – Gross Longs: 197,240 385,039 83,394 – Gross Shorts: 222,484 379,279 63,910 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.3 77.7 6.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -23.8 25.8 -22.2   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -59,089 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,881 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,208 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.6 75.3 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.1 42.8 15.2 – Net Position: -59,089 75,405 -16,316 – Gross Longs: 33,850 174,748 18,999 – Gross Shorts: 92,939 99,343 35,315 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.4 74.3 21.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.8 -7.0 -6.7   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -59,998 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,553 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,445 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.9 71.8 10.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 42.7 38.3 17.1 – Net Position: -59,998 75,067 -15,069 – Gross Longs: 35,533 160,589 23,147 – Gross Shorts: 95,531 85,522 38,216 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.9 72.3 22.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.2 -14.6 -9.1   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -8,724 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,411 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,135 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.0 63.5 19.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.2 15.4 46.4 – Net Position: -8,724 19,882 -11,158 – Gross Longs: 7,017 26,217 7,984 – Gross Shorts: 15,741 6,335 19,142 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 4.1 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 34.4 75.2 19.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 29.7 -15.9 -6.0   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 3,505 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -788 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,293 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.9 46.4 22.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.4 49.8 22.0 – Net Position: 3,505 -4,653 1,148 – Gross Longs: 41,613 64,673 31,834 – Gross Shorts: 38,108 69,326 30,686 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.3 64.9 32.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.8 -3.6 -12.4   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -41,600 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,021 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,621 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 19.3 67.0 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.6 33.9 17.4 – Net Position: -41,600 52,490 -10,890 – Gross Longs: 30,527 106,112 16,570 – Gross Shorts: 72,127 53,622 27,460 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.3 58.0 25.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.6 1.0 -20.6   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -5,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,773 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,056 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.2 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.6 61.7 5.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 44.1 42.1 13.4 – Net Position: -5,283 8,979 -3,696 – Gross Longs: 14,926 28,261 2,436 – Gross Shorts: 20,209 19,282 6,132 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 62.4 44.2 9.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 22.6 -19.1 -12.0   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -23,238 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,820 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,418 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 53.5 43.1 3.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 65.4 32.7 1.6 – Net Position: -23,238 20,317 2,921 – Gross Longs: 104,715 84,247 6,023 – Gross Shorts: 127,953 63,930 3,102 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 17.4 81.3 55.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -25.0 25.2 -7.5   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 10,205 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,128 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,333 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 46.8 46.0 7.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.9 72.5 5.6 – Net Position: 10,205 -10,868 663 – Gross Longs: 19,197 18,878 2,957 – Gross Shorts: 8,992 29,746 2,294 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.4 40.7 72.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -34.5 35.9 -19.8   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -591 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 420 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 76.5 1.6 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 77.7 3.1 6.5 – Net Position: -171 -201 372 – Gross Longs: 10,325 216 1,247 – Gross Shorts: 10,496 417 875 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 77.2 46.1 21.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.4 17.5 6.2   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Another mixed week traders. We started the week with declines that started last weekend and dragged into the week as sellers looked to have taken control. In a positive twist, buyers emerged on Wednesday and stopped the move lower. We saw an average-looking spinner bar that day, but it shifted momentum, and buyers set up a nice day on Thursday with just over 7% added to the top 10 and 7.90% to the top 25. The week centred on the continuing fallout from what’s been dubbed “the Crypto Winter” and the collapses of Three Arrows and Celsius. These two were big players in the industry, and their failures are still sending jitters through the industry. Things look bleak for leaders of TAC, as with last reports suggesting outstanding loans won’t be able to be repaid. Reports also noted the directors of TAC could have gone into hiding. Both were reported by articles on CNBC this week. Continuing to move on with the positive, today we’re seeing price continue its rebound with new two-day highs on the CRYPTO10 and CRYPTO25 indexes. As usual, opinions are divided on whether we will see a new extension lower or if we could be in a technical pause that could turn into a rebound. We are going to break down bitcoin and put forward or ideas on what we would like to see happen, to say yes, we could have a rally or the warning signs that we could see a new extension lower. There is talk from other analysts that Bitcoin could still have to make one more leg lower before it could find a bottom. The general lower price area is seen from 15,000 – 13,000. This is a slightly longer outlook for Bitcoin, but we feel that the current position and pattern is important not only for the next step in BTC but also for Crypto, as we all know that Bitcoin still drives most of the top caps in the market. Incorporating some of the points above about one more leg down this can be seen in the chart with price currently sitting in a consolidation pattern in two downtrends. We can see a triangle around the current consolidation, but we can also see two clear key levels of support and demand holding the current price action. Price has also lined up nicely with a return to the faster downtrend. The OBV also shows a pattern we have seen in the recent declines. And like price the OBV has also returned to its downtrend. So it is rather simple for us, break the triangle and break support. We could be seeing the start of a new extension lower. If buyers can break above resistance and through the fast downtrend, we could be looking at a deeper move higher. The post Crypto Focus: We’re seeing price continue its rebound appeared first on Eightcap.

The Swing Overview – Week 28 2022 This week's new record inflation readings sent a clear message to central bankers. Further interest rate hikes must be faster than before. The first of the big banks to take this challenge seriously was the Bank of Canada, which literally shocked the markets with an unprecedented rate hike of a full 1%. This is obviously not good for stocks, which weakened again in the past week. The euro also stumbled and has already fallen below parity with the usd. Uncertainty, on the other hand, favours the US dollar, which has reached new record highs.   Macroeconomic data The data from the US labour market, the so-called NFP, beat expectations, as the US economy created 372 thousand new jobs in June (the expectation was 268 thousand) and the unemployment rate remained at 3.6%. But on the other hand, unemployment claims continued to rise, reaching 244k last week, the 7th week in a row of increase.   But the crucial news was the inflation data for June. It exceeded expectations and reached a new record of 9.1% on year-on-year basis, the highest value since 1981. Inflation rose by 1.3% on month-on-month basis. Energy prices, which rose by 41.6%, had a major impact on inflation. Declines in commodity prices, such as oil, have not yet influenced June inflation, which may be some positive news. Core inflation excluding food and energy prices rose by 5.9%, down from 6% in May.   The value of inflation was a shock to the markets and the dollar strengthened sharply. We can see this in the dollar index, which has already surpassed 109. We will see how the Fed, which will be deciding on interest rates in less than two weeks, will react to this development. A rate hike of 0.75% is very likely and the question is whether even such an increase will be enough for the markets. Meanwhile, there has been an inversion on the yield curve on US bonds. This means that yields on 2-year bonds are higher than those on 10-year bonds. This is one of the signals of a recession. Figure 1: The US Treasury yield curve on the monthly chart and the USD index on the daily chart   The SP 500 Index Apart from macroeconomic indicators, the ongoing earnings season will also influence the performance of the indices this month. Among the major banks, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley reported results this week. Both banks reported earnings, but they were below investor expectations. The impact of more expensive funding sources that banks need to finance their activities is probably starting to show.   We must also be interested in the data in China, which, due to the size of the Chinese economy, has an impact on the movement of global indices. 2Q GDP in China was 0.4% on year-on-year basis, a significant drop from the previous quarter (4.8%). Strict lockdowns against new COVID-19 outbreaks had an impact on economic situation in the country. Figure 2: SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart The threat of a recession is seeping into the SP 500 index with another decline, which stalled last week at the support level, which according to the H4 is in the 3,740-3,750 range. The next support is 3,640 - 3,670.  The nearest resistance is 3,930 - 3,950. German DAX index The German ZEW sentiment, which shows expectations for the next 6 months, reached - 53.8. This is the lowest reading since 2011. Inflation in Germany reached 7.6% in June. This is lower than the previous month when inflation was 7.9%. Concerns about the global recession continue to affect the DAX index, which has tested significant supports. Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart Strong support according to the daily chart is 12,443 - 12,500, which was tested again last week. We can take the moving averages EMA 50 and SMA 100 as a resistance. The nearest horizontal resistance is 12,950 - 13,000.   The euro broke parity with the dollar The euro fell below 1.00 on the pair with the dollar for the first time in 20 years, reaching a low of 0.9950 last week. Although the euro eventually closed above parity, so from a technical perspective it is not a valid break yet, the euro's weakening points to the headwinds the eurozone is facing: high inflation, weak growth, the threat in energy commodity supplies, the war in Ukraine. Figure 4: EUR/USD on H4 and daily chart Next week the ECB will be deciding on interest rates and it is obvious that there will be some rate hike. A modest increase of 0.25% has been announced. Taking into account the issues mentioned above, the motivation for the ECB to raise rates by a more significant step will not be very strong. The euro therefore remains under pressure and it is not impossible that a fall below parity will occur again in the near future.   The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is at 1.008 - 1.012. A support is the last low, which is at 0.9950 - 0.9960.   Bank of Canada has pulled out the anti-inflation bazooka Analysts had expected the Bank of Canada to raise rates by 0.75%. Instead, the central bank shocked markets with an unprecedented increase by a full 1%, the highest rate hike in 24 years. The central bank did so in response to inflation, which is the highest in Canada in 40 years. With this jump in rates, the bank is trying to prevent uncontrolled price increases.   The reaction of the Canadian dollar has been interesting. It strengthened significantly immediately after the announcement. However, then it began to weaken sharply. This may be because investors now expect the US Fed to resort to a similarly sharp rate hike. Figure 5: USD/CAD on H4 and daily chart Another reason may be the decline in oil prices, which the Canadian dollar is correlated with, as Canada is a major oil producer. The oil is weakening due to fears of a drop in demand that would accompany an economic recession. Figure 6: Oil on the H4 and daily charts Oil is currently in a downtrend. However, it has reached a support value, which is in the area near $94 per barrel. The support has already been broken, but on the daily chart oil closed above this value. Therefore, it is not a valid break yet.  

TOP 3 most traded CFD stocks of this week Information is one of the most valuable commodities. No one can tell you with absolute certainty where any stock is headed. But sometimes you just need to know where, at what point, and why are investors taking the most positions to try to take advantage of the volume and volatility yourselves. We bring you a summary of this week’s top 3 most traded CFD stocks at Purple Trading. What is behind their popularity and what is the outlook for the future? You can find answers to these questions in today’s article. Uber Shares of the notoricaly loss-making taxi service are under a lot of pressure this year. They have lost more than half their value since January. Uber is now selling more than 50% below the price it was when it entered the stock markets in 2019. Comparing it to its all-time high of $63.18 in early January 2021 is even more dismal. The big drop in Uber stock isn't too surprising in the context of the company's financial results from the first quarter of the year. While Uber's revenue grew 136% year-over-year to $6.9 billion, its net loss came in at $5.9 billion due to failed investments in Grab, Aurora, and DiDi. Chart 1: Uber shares on the MT4 platform on the M15 timeframe along with the 100 and 200 day moving averages Uber has become the focus of investor attention in recent days due to leaked information about lobbying high-profile politicians such as French President Emmanuel Macron. The revelations of the scandal have made Uber shares very volatile, which traders have taken advantage of.   The outlook for the coming months is not very positive for the company - high fuel prices are making Uber's services more expensive and a possible recession could significantly affect the company's revenues. Uber's business can be described as rather cyclical and in times of recession the company could suffer as a result. Nor should we underestimate the impact of the growing coronavirus, which is once again beginning to plague the entire world.   However, Uber’s relatively low valuation (it is now trading near an all-time low) and its positive cash flow outlook for 2022 is what’s playing into Uber’s hands. The company will publish its 2Q earnings in early August, and no matter the outcome, Uber shares are likely to remain popular among traders.   Palantir Uber has become the focus of investor attention in recent days due to leaked information about lobbying high-profile politicians such as French President Emmanuel Macron. The revelations of the scandal have made Uber shares very volatile, which traders have taken advantage of.   The outlook for the coming months is not very positive for the company - high fuel prices are making Uber's services more expensive and a possible recession could significantly affect the company's revenues. Uber's business can be described as rather cyclical and in times of recession the company could suffer as a result. Nor should we underestimate the impact of the growing coronavirus, which is once again beginning to plague the entire world.   However, Uber’s relatively low valuation (it is now trading near an all-time low) and its positive cash flow outlook for 2022 is what’s playing into Uber’s hands. The company will publish its 2Q earnings in early August, and no matter the outcome, Uber shares are likely to remain popular among traders. Chart 2: Palantir shares on the MT4 platform on the M15 timeframe along with the 100 and 200 day moving averages Investors still have no idea where to classify Palantir - is it an army contractor or an IT company? The stock's performance so far this year would point more towards an IT company. Military contractors like Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Technologies have had a great year so far, outperforming the S&P 500 index significantly. Palantir's CEO visited Ukraine in June in an effort to expand the company's operations. This obviously pleased investors, but potential expansion is difficult to quantify.   Moreover, the company's capitalization is still more than 10 times its annual revenue, a giant number compared to its competitors. Competitor Booz Allen Hamilton is currently selling for about 1.5 times annual sales, and the company's stock is near this year’s low. The company has a long track record of growing sales and, unlike Palantir, is profitable. Palantir's 2Q earnings are due in the first half of August. The company is expecting 25% year-on-year revenue growth. However, in the same period a year ago, the company grew revenue by 49%. Thus, any surprise in the earnings could cause high volatility. Palantir is definitely a stock to watch.    Moderna Seeing the famous vaccine producer among this week’s most traded companies in our CFD stock offering is not much of a surprise. Yet, back in mid-June, things were not looking good for Moderna shares - as this company was about 50% below the price we could see at the beginning of the year. However, the last month has been great for Moderna and its shares have soared almost by 50%. The reasons for this steep rise are clear - the coronavirus is once again on the rise globally. Since the beginning of June, the number of daily covid cases have practically doubled globally. The World Health Organisation has warned that the pandemic is far from over. This is just more water on the mill for companies such as Moderna and BioNTech. In addition, Moderna's actions were also helped by the June approval of a vaccine for American children and adolescents aged 6 months to 17 years. Chart 3: Shares of Moderna in the MT4 platform on the M15 timeframe along with the 100 and 200 day moving averages After the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, Moderna was the darling of investors for obvious reasons. Shares thus reached an all-time high of almost USD 500. Since last September, however, it has gone south sharply. Looking at the P/E ratio (the ratio of share price to earnings per share), Moderna looks very attractive - the ratio is now around 5, which is a great number for a pharmaceutical company. In addition, Moderna is well funded - the selling of coronavirus vaccines have given it very interesting liquidity.   The biggest concern for investors, however, is the future of the company and its earnings once the coronavirus has passed. Apart from the vaccines mentioned above, at this moment the company does not sell any other products to the public. It has several other products in the testing phase, but their final approval and sales are uncertain. Thus, Moderna's stock may continue to thrive in the coming months thanks to further covid waves. In the long term, however, the company will need more products if it is to prosper.  

Which stock market sector is currently interesting due to its volatility While long-term investors in physical shares are not too interested in volatility, CFD traders can make potentially very nice profits from it. However, equity markets are vast and it can happen that an interesting title slips through one’s fingers. This article will make sure that it doesn't happen. What is volatility and how is it created If you were to equate the words volatility and nervousness (or moodiness) you would not be far off the mark. Indeed, volatility is really a measure of nervousness in the markets and where there is nervousness, there is also uncertainty. Uncertainty in the markets can arise for many different reasons, but it usually happens before the release of important macroeconomic news (on our economic calendar), you can identify those by the three bulls' heads symbols) or during unexpected events with a major impact on a particular market sector or the geopolitical order of the world (natural disasters, wars).   On the charts of trading platforms, you can recognize a highly volatile market by the dynamically changing price of the instrument, the market is said to be going up or down, and if you switch to a candle chart, you may notice large candles. Conversely, non-volatile, calm markets move sideways without any significant dips or rises. Volatility can also be historical or implied, but we'll write about that another time. Now, let’s talk about how can one potentially profit from volatility and where to find suitable markets to do so.   How to potentially profit from volatility For intraday and swing traders, volatility is the key to their potential success. For traders, often the worst situation is the so-called "sideways" market movement, where the asset in question goes "sideways" without significant movements either up or down. With small and larger price fluctuations, traders can potentially generate interesting profits. One of the most volatile markets is the stock market, where some news can trigger very significant price movements. Events such as important economic reports, a stock split, or an acquisition announcement, for example, can move the price of a given stock. In addition, traders using CFDs for share trading can also use leverage to multiply any gains (and losses) in a given volatility.   The key to potential success is choosing the right stock titles. Some stocks and sectors can be considered more volatile, while others can go longer periods of time without significant fluctuations. So how do you look for volatility? Several indicators measure price movements in stocks, perhaps the most well-known is beta, which measures the volatility of a given stock compared to a benchmark stock index (typically the S&P 500 for US stocks). The beta indicator is listed on most well-known stock sites, but we can calculate it using the following formula: Beta = 1 In this case, the stock is highly correlated with the market and we can expect very similar movements to the benchmark index.   Beta < 1 If the beta is less than 1, we can consider the stock to be potentially less volatile than the stock market.   Beta > 1 Stocks with a beta greater than 1 are theoretically more volatile than the benchmark index. So, for example, if a stock's beta is 1.1, we think of it as 10% more volatile. It is stock titles with a beta above 1 that should be of most interest to investors looking to take advantage of volatility. However, it is not enough to monitor the beta alone, traders should not forget to monitor important news and fundamentals related to the company and the market in general. Thus, it is advisable to choose a few companies whose stocks have been significantly volatile in the past and where we expect strong movements due to positive and negative news to continue. So which sectors may be worth following? In which sectors can you potentially benefit from high volatility? Energy sector The energy companies sector has historically been one of the most volatile, as confirmed by the course of 2022 so far. The price development of energy companies is of course strongly linked to the price of energy commodities. These have had a great year - both natural gas and oil have appreciated by several tens of percent since the beginning of the year. However, this growth has not been without significant fluctuations, often by higher units of percent per day. The current geopolitical situation and growing talk of recession promise to continue the volatility in the sector. In the chart below, you can see the movement of Exxon Mobil Corp shares in recent weeks. Chart 1: Exxon Mobil shares on the MT4 platform on the H1 timeframe along with the 50 and 100-day moving averages Travel industry Shares of companies related to the travel industry have always been very volatile. According to data from the beginning of the year (NYU Stern), even the companies classified as hotels and casinos were the most volatile when measured by beta. Given the coronavirus pandemic, this is not surprising. However, the threat of coronavirus still persists and there is currently the talk of another wave. However, global demand for travel is once again strong. Airlines and hotels are beginning to recover from the previous two dry years. As a result, both positive and negative news promises potential volatility going forward. In the chart below, you can see the movement of Hilton Hotels Corp shares in recent weeks. Chart 2: Hilton Hotels shares on the MT4 platform on the H1 timeframe along with the 50 and 100-day moving averages Technology Technology is a very broad term - some companies in a given sector can be considered "blue chip" stocks, which can generally be less volatile and have the potential to appreciate nicely over time. These include Apple or Microsoft, for example. However, even these will not escape relatively high volatility in 2022. Traders looking for even stronger moves, however, will be more interested in smaller companies such as Uber, Zoom Technologies, Palantir, or PayPal. In the chart below, we can see the evolution of Twitter stock, which has undergone significant volatility in recent weeks. This was linked to the announcement of the acquisition (April gap) and its recent recall by Elon Musk. With both opposing parties facing a court battle, similarly wild news is just more water on the volatility mill. Chart 3: Twitter shares on the MT4 platform on the H1 timeframe along with the 50 and 100-day moving averages There are, of course, more sectors that are significantly volatile. Traders can follow companies in the healthcare sector, for example, where coronavirus vaccine companies are among the most interesting ones. Restaurants or aerospace and chemical companies can also be worth looking at. But few things can move stock markets as significantly as the economic cycle. We'll look at the impact of expansion and recession on stocks in our next article.  

Hi and thanks for stopping by to watch today’s update. Today we’re looking at Bitcoin on the 4H after a few days of solid buying, and a few rejected pushes higher. Yesterday’s things looked bright for bitcoin and the top ten as it looked like buyers here hit on the case, and we saw plenty of solid gains across the boards. Things changed in the NY session as sellers moved in and knocked prices lower. This was short-lived as we saw fresh demand hit the markets this morning. Bitcoin retested resistance but has stalled once again, with sellers taking price back below 22,000. In today’s update, we break down resistance and price action we are watching with the current trend structure. If buyers can hold 21,480, could we see a new shot at resistance? Feel free to let us know your thoughts, and we wish all a happy Tuesday and good trading. Our Bitcoin update video is just below the 4H Bitcoin chart. Bitcoin 4H Bitcoin Update Video (powred by TradingView) The post Bitcoin held at 22,700 resistance. Can buyers take the next step? appeared first on Eightcap.

Welcome to Thursday’s update. So far today, we have been watching the EURUSD as buyers have started to fight back after some demand crept in yesterday. We are watching the current price to see if a new continuation can confirm on the 4H chart as price continues to sit on its new fast uptrend. We can see the latest trend forming after buyer’s first leg higher broke the last downtrend, but we still need to see price confirm with a new push higher from this point. We would like to see a test of 1.0250 resistance, and a break of that level could confirm that we have a new trend underway. The ECB meets later today, and rates are expected to increase by 25 basis points. This is a special occasion as rates have not moved in the EU for some time now. Attention will always be on the statement and if there are hints of more to come. Will this give the EUR a short-term boost? We want to see price continue to trade firm until the decision. If we see a break of the current trend or a move below 1.0155 this could be a bad sign for buyers on the short term. Ensure you tune in for today’s ECB meeting at 8:15 am EST. Enjoy the rest of you your day and good trading. 4H EURUSD Chart Today’s EURUSD update video (powered by trading view) The post EURUSD, buyers starting to set up a new continuation? appeared first on Eightcap.

Summary:  Do NFL season and game ticket prices mirror what NFL franchises spend in free agency? In times of rising inflation, why do some fans have to pay more? The Jaguars Splashed the Cash in Free Agency, But Which Fans Will Fork Out the Most on Tickets? The Jacksonville Jaguars became only the seventh team in NFL history to commit over $100 million in guaranteed salaries via free agency. In fact, the Jacksonville Jaguars are now contractually obliged to pay out $175.3 million to their recruits, according to ESPN. That’s $12.3 million higher than the New England Patriots this time last year who went on a spree – only to fall at the first hurdle in the playoffs. Despite the Jaguars' lavish spending, Jacksonville still have more than $11 million remaining in their salary cap. In terms of active cap spending, the Jaguars are now the fourth biggest spenders in the NFL behind the Kansas City Chiefs, the Los Angeles Chargers and the biggest spenders, the New York Jets. The latter is currently spending $199.2 million. Bizarrely, the Jets are one of the least successful NFL franchises in the modern era of the sport, last winning the Super Bowl in 1968. With this in mind, which NFL fans are getting the best value for money in the 2022-23 regular season? We looked at the cheapest home game tickets across the board to find teams who are charging a fair price relative to their chances of success next season. Raiders Fans Will Spend the Most on Tickets in 2022 Fans of the Las Vegas Raiders, AKA Raider Nation, will be required to fork out the most money if they want to buy tickets to every Raiders home game in the 2022-23 NFL regular season. The average cost of the cheapest tickets at the Raiders’ Allegiant Stadium is set to be $182.59 per game. This equates to $3,104 throughout the entire home game schedule next season. While this data covers home and away games, cost of tickets at Allegiant Stadium were a huge factor behind the Raiders finishing as the most expensive franchise to watch. There are a couple of reasons why the Raiders are likely to be the most expensive NFL franchise to follow in the foreseeable future. First, Las Vegas is one of the biggest tourist destinations on the planet, let alone in the US. The Raiders’ owners will be understandably keen to tap into that tourist demographic, many of whom are keen to catch an NFL game in ‘Sin City’. Second, the 65,000-seater Allegiant Stadium came at a significant cost to the franchise. At $1.9 billion, it is the second most expensive sports stadium on the planet after the SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. It's also the second newest NFL stadium, proving to be a stunning addition to the Las Vegas skyline. Although $750 million was provided in public funding, the Raiders had to fund the remaining $1.1 billion – hence the extortionate ticket prices to help cover the multiple loan repayments to the Bank of America and the NFL. Their sky-high ticket prices are at odds with their active salary cap spending, which is well below the league average, putting the Raiders as the fourth-lowest spenders in player salaries. The Green Bay Packers will be the second most expensive NFL franchise to watch this coming season, with the cheapest tickets per game weighing in at $144.65 apiece. That’s followed by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($133.24) and the New England Patriots ($124.94). Aside from the Raiders, ticket pricing trends are often based on the calibre and likely success of each franchise, i.e. the best teams can demand the highest ticket prices. Although the Raiders may be an outlier, the likes of the Packers, the Buccaneers and the Patriots are all expected to compete for the Super Bowl next season. The Packers can also lean on the brand of their star quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Meanwhile, the Bucs are also indebted to having legendary quarterback Tom Brady on their roster. The Patriots are also still riding off their immense success during the era of former quarterback star Brady and former head coach Bill Belichick, which saw New England clinch three Super Bowls in five years between 2014-2018. Jaguars Fans Have the Lowest Total Spend on Tickets in 2022 Although the Jacksonville Jaguars have spent hundreds of millions of dollars on upgrading their roster ahead of the 2022-23 season, their fans will pay the least out of all the NFL franchises to watch their team this year. With the cheapest tickets starting from just $47, this works out at just $799 for an entire season. This may not be a surprise considering the Jaguars have reached the postseason playoffs just once in the last 15 years. However, loyal Jags fans will also have to factor in the cost of their team's involvement in next season's NFL International Games. Their 'home' game with Denver Broncos at Wembley Stadium sees the cheapest tickets weigh in at around £60 ($69), but that's small fry compared to the cost of flights and accommodation over to the UK.  Historically, Jacksonville has played the most International Games in London to date, with long-standing rumours that the Jags could relocate their team to the English capital, giving London its first NFL franchise and the first ever overseas NFL franchise. The trend of ticket prices aligning with the calibre of the NFL franchise seems to continue at the bottom end of the ticket spectrum. During the upcoming NFL season, the Washington Commanders ($48.88) and Houston Texans ($50.41) are the cheapest teams to watch at home. The Commanders haven’t won a Super Bowl since 1991 and the Texans have never won an NFL championship. Conclusion If you want to catch an NFL game this season there is a huge disparity in ticket prices, so it's a good idea to find the best value franchises to watch if you're an American Football neutral. It’s clear that successful teams demand big-name players. To afford those big-name players, ticket prices are just one metric that can help a franchise afford these astronomical salaries. It will be interesting to see how the average ticket prices change in the coming seasons at Jacksonville given the unprecedented sums invested by new coach Doug Pederson to bring “impact players” into the roster that can help the team “right away”. Methodology To calculate the cheapest NFL tickets for the 2022-23 season, we scoured the likes of NFL UK, NFL Deutschland and SeatGeek to discover the best value tickets for each team’s home and away games throughout the 2022-23 NFL regular season.   Source:https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/saxo-stories/nfl-fan-costs--season-ticket-prices--more--saxo-06092022

General elections will be held in Israel on Tuesday, November 1. Ahead of general elections, economists at Credit Suisse continue to expect USD/ILS to rise towards 3.65 later in the fourth quarter. Ready to buy USD/ILS on possible dips on “clean” election outcome “The latest polls show a tie between former Prime Minister Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc and the one led by current Prime Minister Yair Lapid. Although this points to possible lingering political uncertainty, we do not expect much of an impact on the shekel.  “We continue to expect USD/ILS to rise towards 3.65 later in Q4.” “We would view possible short-term pullbacks in USD/ILS on the back of a clear election outcome as a buying opportunity.”

The geographic and geopolitical situation has made this a difficult period for the region. However, things should normalise in the coming year. We expect global pressures to ease and central banks to drop their FX intervention approach. Nevertheless, the situation remains fragile and we remain vigilant Source: Shutterstock Make the FX market normal again Although it can be said globally that the last few months have been very complicated, the CEEMEA region and in particular the CEE4 have been clearly leading the way in this mess. The Covid years forced central banks in Central and Eastern Europe to start a global hiking cycle, and this year's events have compounded the burden on the region. In our view, the main shock is already over, but we are far from out of the woods and are only moving into the second stage – the aftermath. In addition to the standard drivers of FX, such as rate differentials and EUR/USD, the price of natural gas has now become a central theme for the CEE4 region. The coming winter will test the unity of the European Union with a shallow recession and central bank efforts to end record hiking cycles bringing further pain to FX. Moreover, twin deficits, which will remain with us for a longer period, do not play in the region's favour. Central banks have been forced to do more than just hike rates to ensure price stability and the CEE4 region has split into two camps: full FX intervention regimes (Romania and the Czech Republic) and hybrid defence (Poland and Hungary). To make matters worse, politics has also come into play, and in particular, the dispute between Hungary and Poland with the EU has weighed heavily on the forint and the zloty. As you can see, the cards are heavily stacked against the CEE region, and we carry all these themes into the next year. However, we believe that these issues will be addressed in 2023 and market conditions will begin to normalise. By far the biggest potential, in our view, is the Hungarian forint, which has suffered badly from the government's uncertain access to EU funds, full dependence on Russian energy, and the greatest sensitivity to a global sell-off. Therefore, with the calming of these issues, which we believe is only a matter of time, the hidden potential of the forint could be unlocked, outperforming its CEE peers. We see a similar story on a smaller scale in Poland. On the other hand, the Czech National Bank and National Bank of Romania have taken the path of keeping FX under control, leading to artificial overvaluation. In both cases, we expect a loosening of the central banks' approach in the first half of next year, which should lead to significant depreciation. Among the high-yielders, Turkish policymakers have used an array of unorthodox policy measures to limit weakness in the Turkish lira. The Turkish election in June will be a pivotal period for financial markets, and investors will remain wary that unchecked inflation could put pressure on the lira. In South Africa, the rand looks to have found some good buyers near the 18.50 area in USD/ZAR. Those levels could be tested again early next year should the Federal Reserve push real interest rates higher again, but as pessimism in the Chinese economy starts to fade in the second half of 2023, (the rand is very much driven by commodity prices and China’s performance) USD/ZAR could be trading well below 17.00. Finally, USD/ILS normally proves a good bellwether for the broad dollar trend. And the Bank of Israel might be slightly more tolerant of shekel strength in 2023. We target 3.00 for USD/ILS. Twin deficits - the new standard in the region Source: ING forecast EUR/PLN: Conditions to improve, zloty remains at risk   Spot Year ahead bias4Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23 EUR/PLN 4.70 Neutral 4.90 4.85 4.74 4.66 4.70 Valuation: Our relative value EUR/PLN model (gauging the exchange rate against other market variables, such as swap spreads, option volatility, etc) continues to point to the zloty still being some 3% undervalued against the euro. We attribute this to a mix of risks, both external, particularly the war in Ukraine and its economic fallout, and internal, specifically, tensions with the EU, elevated CPI risk and expansionary fiscal policy undermining the local currency bond market – Polish government bonds (POLGBs). Many analysts suggest another major Russian offensive may be due in the spring. If Russia simultaneously attempts to put economic pressure on the EU, this could again sour sentiment towards the CEE region. The prospect of the conflict coming to an end is a major unknown, but investors should at least become increasingly resilient to news about the war. External position: Fundamental backing behind the zloty should improve next year, but risks behind the local policy mix will rise. We expect the current account deficit to tighten from €35bn to €26bn, owing to e.g. a more favourable terms of trade. Poland is also likely to draw some €20bn from the 'old' EU budget. Moreover, the government finally decided to lean towards hard currency funding. All of this is likely to be converted via the market under the current Ministry of Finance's FX strategy – balancing the current account deficit. Also, FDI inflows should remain solid, already standing at a net €16bn in the first half of 2022. Year-end 2022 may prove more difficult, as refilling natural gas reserves may again prove costly. Politics: Domestic politics is a major unknown in 2023. The proximity of the October elections is a key risk for the fiscal consolidation the government recently unveiled to curtail weak POLGBs. The government is also attempting to reset relations with the EU – possibly encouraged by Hungary’s pro-EU turn. While reaching an actual compromise will take time (and may prove impossible ahead of the general elections), it is at least a move in the right direction and likely to improve the market perception of Poland. Moreover, opinion polls show increasing support for the EU-orientated opposition. A victory for them could prove supportive to the zloty, as investors would bet on swift access to the 'new' EU budget. EUR/HUF: Waiting for a forint breakout   Spot Year ahead bias4Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23 EUR/HUF 405.00 Bearish 400.00 390.00 380.00 385.00 390.00 Inflation: The forint's (HUF) underperformance is largely related to price pressures. Despite the anti-inflationary measures provided by the Hungarian government via price caps in basic food, fuel, and utilities, core inflation is the highest in the EU. However, we believe that the peak is close. Real wage growth dropped into negative territory from September, consumer confidence is close to a record low and a higher share of companies are complaining about a lack of demand rather than a lack of labour. These factors should tame the pricing power of companies. Thus, we see headline and core inflation peaking around the end of 2022 or early 2023. As soon as inflation starts to ease, inflation expectations will come down, so a forward-looking positive real interest rate will spur interest in the HUF. Monetary policy: The central bank stepped into Phase 3 of its tightening cycle in mid-October with an emergency move. New temporary targeted measures were introduced to maintain financial stability alongside the main goal of price stability. The effective rate is now defined by the one-day deposit quick tender, sitting at 18%. With further fine-tuning in the system, we see monetary transmission improving, with short-end rates rising further. In parallel, tightening via the squeezing of liquidity will continue. The exit strategy from the 'whatever it takes' stance will be triggered by materially improved risk sentiment (see next bullet). We think this could translate into a gradual convergence of the effective rate to the base rate, starting as soon as late December. Internal risks: As this policy turnaround will be triggered by a materially improved risk environment, we see a potential relief rally in the forint, despite some normalisation in interest rates. The two key elements of internal risks are the Rule-of-Law procedure and the current account imbalance. Regarding the former, we expect Hungary to settle the dispute with the EU, opening the door for EU transfers as soon as mid-December. This will eliminate a key barrier to HUF strengthening. We expect the country’s external balance to improve in the coming months as the recession and coming winter will dampen the country’s import needs, easing the systemic pressure on the forint. In our view, this could result in a 5% strengthening of the forint over the next six months. EUR/CZK: Koruna under CNB control   Spot Year ahead bias4Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23 EUR/CZK 24.30 Neutral 24.50 24.50 25.00 25.00 24.50 Monetary policy: The Czech National Bank left interest rates unchanged at 7.0% for the third consecutive meeting and we think the Bank has now ended its hiking cycle – the first central bank in the region to do so. The economy already posted a decline in the third quarter of 2022 and we believe it is heading into a shallow recession. Wage growth remains high but inflation below the CNB's forecast suggests a hawkish surprise is unlikely, in our view. The current account has plunged into a record deficit and, in relative terms, we forecast it will reach the largest deficit since 2003. Moreover, fiscal policy shows only marginal signs of consolidation, and so the Czech Republic joins the twin deficit club within the CEEMEA region. FX Interventions: The main topic for the Czech koruna in the coming months is the fate of the CNB's FX intervention regime. According to the central bank's figures, it has so far spent 16% of FX reserves from mid-May to the end of September. In our view, the CNB's activity in the markets has been zero in recent weeks, as confirmed by the Bank's board member Oldrich Dedek in a recent interview. Therefore, we see the CNB in a comfortable position and expect FX intervention to continue at least until the end of the first quarter next year with a line in the sand at 24.60-24.70 EUR/CZK. What next? For now, the koruna is clearly capped on the upside due to the presence of the CNB in the market, while we also see the pressure on the CZK from the global environment as gradually easing. Moreover, within CEE, markets see more interesting themes in Poland and Hungary and several CZK short squeezes have discouraged bets against the end of CNB FX intervention. Therefore, we expect EUR/CZK to trade slightly below the CNB's unofficial line and the koruna will return to the market's attention in the second quarter of 2023 when we think the topic of the CNB's exit strategy will return. EUR/RON: Focus on the 'managed' in managed float   Spot Year ahead bias4Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23 EUR/RON 4.91 Mildly Bullish 4.94 4.95 5.10 5.10 5.10 Hiking cycle: Having reached a key rate of 6.75% in November, the National Bank of Romania is either at or very close to the end of the hiking cycle. We narrowly favour no more hikes in 2023, though we admit that chances are high for another 25bp increase in January. The NBR’s commitment to firm liquidity management will likely – on average – keep carry rates above the policy rate. However, we see a good chance for the liquidity situation to improve substantially into year-end on the back of accelerated spending by the Treasury. Mopping up this liquidity is likely to take a good couple of months. Twin deficits: While on the budget deficit side, policymakers seem committed to reaching the 3.00% of GDP target in 2024 (with a 4.4% target for 2023), developments on the current account side are not encouraging. Due to unfavourable price developments in external markets (including the energy sector) but also on the back of robust GDP growth in the first half of 2022, the trade balance deficit will close well within double digits in 2022, possibly flirting with levels last touched in 2008 when it surpassed 16.0% of GDP. This represents a significant structural weakness that will keep pressure on the leu and require constant FX intervention from the central bank. Strong EU funds absorption will be key to balancing this imbalanced picture. Politics: The relatively eventless political scene in 2022 has been rather remarkable after years of political turmoil. As per the current coalition agreement, the PNL prime minister will resign in May 2023 and a PSD prime minister should be voted in by the same coalition. While there are no real signs of trouble currently, the impending 2024 electoral year still makes it somewhat hard to picture a completely serene change of power in May-June 2023. EUR/RSD: IMF acts as an anchor of stability   Spot Year ahead bias4Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23 EUR/RSD 117.30 Neutral 117.30 117.30 117.35 117.40 117.40 IMF: On 2 November, the IMF announced that a EUR2.4 billion 24-month Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) will replace the current Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI), subject to IMF Board approval in December 2022. The agreement will help to address “emerging external and fiscal financing needs”. On the external front, the IMF estimates the current account deficit to reach 9.0% of GDP in both 2022 and 2023 due to “sharply higher energy import costs along with shortfalls in domestic electricity production, as well as weakening external demand”. On the fiscal side, the initial 3.0% of GDP budget deficit target will be exceeded, most likely ending up around 4.0% of GDP. Summing up, the country needs financing, and the current choppy markets have made the IMF SBA look more appealing despite the strings attached. Monetary policy: Beyond the proposed reforms on the fiscal side, the SBA will undoubtedly shape monetary policy as well. The 2 November press release specifically mentions that “the macroeconomic policy mix should be tight to contain high inflation and support exchange rate stability” and “the ongoing monetary tightening is crucial to ensure that inflation does not become entrenched”. Essentially, we read this as a signal that the IMF is relatively comfortable with the current FX stability policy but that interest rates should continue to be increased. We revise our terminal key rate forecast from 4.50% to 5.75%, which should be reached in the first quarter of 2023. (Geo)Politics: While on the internal front, the April 2022 elections have settled things for some time, the regional developments – be it the war in Ukraine or the Kosovo car plates dispute – are making it more and more difficult for the country to sustain the ambivalent stance it has so far maintained. Absent more clarity, Serbia’s progress as a candidate country for EU accession might see little improvement in the short to medium term, which could dent its efforts to achieve the long-awaited investment grade status. USD/KZT: A defensive play on local fundamentals   Spot Year ahead bias4Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23 USD/KZT 460.00 Mildly Bullish 480.00 480.00 470.00 470.00 470.00 Scope for higher exports: The Kazakh tenge (KZT) depreciated 6% in the first 10 months of 2022, which is defensive given the geopolitics in the region and the 10-15% US dollar appreciation against major currencies. This is attributable to Kazakhstan’s stronger trade. Exports grew 48% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2022, and the current account is back to a $7.9bn surplus vs. a $5.6bn deficit in the first nine months of 2021. Oil production of 1.5m barrels per day is below the OPEC+ quota of 1.6m bpd, and the official target of 1.9-2.0m bpd, meaning there is scope for an increase in exports in 2023, assuming stable oil prices. Meanwhile, oilfield maintenance and an 85% dependence on Russian pipeline infrastructure are downside risk factors. The government is looking to reduce involvement in the FX market: The government is planning fiscal consolidation to reduce the breakeven oil price from a high $110-140 in 2021-2022 to a more comfortable $55-76/bbl to 2023-25. As a result, more FX oil revenues could be saved, reducing the gross spending of the sovereign fund to $7bn in 2023 from $9-11bn in 2021-22. However, the planned 3% GDP increase in non-oil revenues appears ambitious, and the actual conversion of FX oil revenues into KZT for state spending could be higher than officially planned in the event of non-oil revenue under-collection and higher than expected spending. Private capital flows remain uncertain: While the state capital flows, including the sovereign fund and foreign debt, are normally a mirror image of the current account, the private sector’s capital flows are subject to uncertainty. In the first nine months of 2022, private outflows (including unidentified operations) narrowed to $0.3bn vs. $3.8bn in 2021, in line with our expectations, due to the post-Covid recovery in corporate borrowing and the government’s capital repatriation measures. Continued capital inflows will require further progress in structural reforms, improvement in the global/regional risk appetite, and signs of a reversal in the nominal key rate trend, which is so far heading higher. USD/UAH: Central bank allows further depreciation   Spot Year ahead bias4Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23 USD/UAH 36.80 Neutral 40.00 40.00 38.50 37.70 37.00 Central bank: 2023 prospects for the hryvnia remain concerning. Analysts warn that the recent Russian mobilisation may prolong the conflict by at least several months. Moreover, the Ukrainian military progress may slow this winter after recent successes. This leaves the economy struggling with a massive trade deficit (US$5.4bn during the first eight months of 2023), largely reliant on international aid to shore up its FX reserves, currently at $25.2bn owing to a massive injection. However, while the scale of FX intervention has decreased markedly since its peak in July ($4bn), it remains considerable ($2bn in October). The very likely intensification of fighting in early 2023 may again push up the scale of FX intervention required to stabilise the currency. That is why we expect the central bank to allow for further depreciation of the hryvnia, possibly in the first half of 2023. Long-term view: The prospects for the Ukrainian currency largely hinge on the timing of an end to the conflict and the ensuing inflow of reconstruction aid. Various estimates indicate that the restoration may cost up to $750bn (or nearly four times the 2021 Ukrainian GDP). A fraction of this should suffice to drive USD/UAH lower, considering the costs of Ukraine’s FX intervention so far. New normal: Returning to pre-war USD/UAH levels is impossible, though. Given the massive damage to Ukraine’s infrastructure and means of production, the economy will for years remain dependent on investment-related imports. Even if those could theoretically be covered by inflows of foreign aid, the country will likely aim at maintaining a weaker hryvnia in order to support exports. USD/TRY: No relief in sight for TRY   Spot Year ahead bias4Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23 USD/TRY 18.60 Bullish 19.50 21.20 22.40 23.30 24.00 Central bank focus to keep financial conditions supportive: The Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) has delivered 350bp in cuts since August, pushing rates to 10.50%, while also signalling that the rate-cutting cycle will end in November at 9%. The reasoning behind the extension of the rate-cutting cycle at an accelerated pace remains the same. The CBT has cited the need for supportive financial conditions so as to preserve the growth momentum in industrial production and the positive trend in employment. Further signs of a slowdown in economic activity and the recovery in FX reserves since late July are likely factors for the cutting cycle. However, given tighter regulations on the asset side which selectively limit loan growth, cuts are not easing financial conditions quickly. Supportive fiscal stance and continuation of selective credit policy: The timing of the recently announced Credit Guarantee Fund package (reportedly at least TRY50bn) and any possible easing in macro-prudential regulations could reverse the recent momentum loss in lending ahead of elections, with the objective of further supporting domestic demand. Policymakers are also leaning towards a more expansionary stance on the fiscal side as the budget deficit, estimated in the Medium Term Program at 3.4% of GDP in 2022, has been rapidly increasing from c.1.4% in September. The budget deficit forecast for 2023 is 43% higher than this year's forecast. And we should not rule out a breach of this target as the elections approach – scheduled for June 2023. Inflation and external imbalances remain as major concerns: While the policy mix has tilted to a more supportive stance lately, sustained disinflation is not likely unless real rates are normalised. The recent steps are not sufficient to facilitate an external rebalancing which will be determined by the evolution of energy and gold imports. In this environment, TRY is likely to remain under pressure not only because of macro fundamentals but also because of the current unsupportive global backdrop. A recovery in FX reserves will be more challenging in this environment. USD/ZAR: Surprise fiscal outperformance   Spot Year ahead bias4Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23 USD/ZAR 17.20 Mildly Bearish 18.00 17.50 17.25 17.00 16.50 Some good fiscal news: For many years, the fiscal position has been the rand’s Achilles' heel, including the high-profile downgrade to junk status of its sovereign bonds in 2017 and their removal from key bond indices in the 2017-20 period. However, the October budgetary statement in parliament projected South Africa running a fiscal surplus next year and the country’s gross debt-to-GDP stabilising at lower and earlier-than-predicted levels. This has helped the sovereign five-year CDS retrace from the 360bp levels seen in late September. This suggests that if external conditions improve, the rand would be rewarded. Terms of trade will be key: As a high beta, EM commodity exporter, the rand is also very much driven by both commodity prices and China’s performance. Commodity prices and weak imports had helped South Africa’s current account position switch to a strong surplus in 2021 and early 2022. Into 2023, however, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) forecasts the terms of trade declining 17% and the current account moving back into deficit. South Africa will also be playing its part in the energy transition as it switches from coal and the hope is that the nation’s electricity provider, Eskom, can find some stability if the sovereign assumes a big chunk of its debt. The profile: It seems as though international investors have started to find value in the rand when USD/ZAR trades at 18.50. We think it could trade there again into early next year if the Fed tightens US real rates still further. Yet the global stagflation story is well flagged and into 2023 we think investors could switch to a more reflationary mindset if it looks like the Fed is preparing to cut rates later in the year. Equally, it is hard to see investors remaining as pessimistic on China for the entirety of 2023. We therefore see USD/ZAR trading back to 17.00 and possibly even 16.00 as 2023 progresses. USD/ILS: Shekel well positioned when equities turn   Spot Year ahead bias4Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23 USD/ILS 3.40 Bearish 3.50 3.40 3.25 3.10 3.00 Equities a key driver: 2022 has proved a strange year for the shekel in that when the Bank of Israel (BoI) finally turned hawkish, and with good reason, the shekel sold off along with the rest of the EMFX complex. Recall that for many years the BoI had been battling shekel strength with a large FX intervention campaign. Apart from widespread dollar strength, it also does seem that the shekel is very much driven by equities. Here, declines in overseas (mainly US) equities markets drive margin calls to Israeli buy-side investors and generate shekel weakness. We tentatively expect this dynamic to reverse in the second quarter of 2023. Strong economy: The Israeli economy is expected to grow around 6% this year and 3% next year – even when the US and Europe are likely to be in a recession. Perhaps Israel should be warier of second-round inflation effects than most since the economy is operating above capacity and at full employment. However, the BoI hints that its tightening cycle might end around the 3% area and that inflation should come back into the BoI’s 1-3% target range by the end of 2023. The risks would seem to be skewed towards the BoI needing to tighten further. Why we like the shekel: Israel runs a 3%+ of GDP current account surplus, has strong domestic growth and a central bank not afraid to get involved in FX markets – meaning that shekel weakness will not be particularly welcome. In our experience, USD/ILS is always at the forefront of the dollar trend and if the dollar does turn in the first half of 2023 as we expect, USD/ILS should come a lot lower. Less concern over deflation by the BoI should mean that it will be more tolerant of USD/ILS breaking below 3.00 towards the end of 2023 – which could be the surprise. Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more  

BTC/USD BTC/USD has been trading upside as I expected and I found the breakout of the well defined sideways range, which is good sign for the higher prices.   Due to the breakout of the well defined range and the upside trend on the mid and long term cycles, I see potetnial for the higher process after the downside correction.   Upside objectives are set at the price of $29.145 and $29.870 Stochastic oscillator is showing oversold condition and fresh bull cross, which is another sign for the upside movement.   Key support cluster is set at the price of $25.900    

Trend analysis. The market may move upward from the level of 1.0724 (closing of Friday's daily candle) with the target of 1.0758, the 14.6% pullback level (red dotted line). When testing this level, the price may move downward with the target of 1.0737, the 61.8% pullback level (yellow dotted line).       Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis - up; Fibonacci levels - up; Volumes - up; Candlestick analysis - up; Trend analysis - down; Bollinger bands - down; Weekly chart - up.     Today, the price may move upward from the level of 1.0724 (closing of Friday's daily candle) with the target of 1.0758, the 14.6% pullback level (red dotted line). When testing this level, the price may move downward with the target of 1.0737, the 61.8% pullback level (yellow dotted line). Alternatively, the price may move upward from the level of 1.0724 (closing of Friday's daily candle) with the target of 1.0758, the 14.6% pullback level (red dotted line). When testing this level, the price may continue to move upwards with the target of 1.0794, the 23.6% pullback level (red dotted line).  

USD/CAD has been trading downside and I found the breakout of the support cluster at the price of 1.3590, which is good sign for the further downside movement.   Due to the breakout of the support cluster and the increasing in the downside movement, I see potential for the further lower prices towards downside references.   Downside objectives are set at 1.3540 and 1.3490 MACD is showing increasing of the downside momentum, which is good sign for the further lower prices.... Key resistance is set at the price of 1.3650  

Gold has been trading upside as I expected and I see potential for the further upside continuation towards the upside references.    Due to the mid-long term upside trend and the short-term upside momentum, I see potential for the further growth towards the upside reference. Upside objectives are set at the price of $2.047 and $2.078 MACD oscillator is showing bull reading, which is good sign for the upside continuation. Key support is set at the price of $1.935

BTC/USD has been trading downside yesterday and I found exhaustion and breakout of the mini downside channel, which is good sign for the further growth. Due to the rejection of the key support at $26.500 and the exhaustion pattern, I see potential for the further growth towards upside references.   Upisde objectives are set at the price of $27.560 and $28.000 MACD and RSC oscillators are showing bullish divergence, which is another good confirmation for the further upside movement. Key support cluster is set at the price of $26.500