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Inflation in Germany continues its hike far beyond the charts. The deceleration of the monthly price growth rate in May and June proved deceptive, followed by a surge of 5.3% for July and 7.9% for August. The annual rate of producer price growth soared to 45.8% from 37.2% a month earlier, contrasting with the expected slowdown to 37.1%.

German Producer Price Index

However, over the last couple of months, the ECB's stance has drastically changed from trying to "talk up inflation" to unprecedented (for euro-area history) rate hikes of 50 and then 75 points over the last two meetings.

From a currency market perspective, high inflation figures are not weighing on the euro but can support it, as the ECB has moved on from contemplation to data-driven moves.

Read next: The Global Household Wealth Report, A Hacking Attack And More| FXMAG.COM

The euro cannot yet boast of the same reaction to the inflation reports as the dollar did a week earlier. However, the EURUSD closed the previous four sessions with gains, mai

Santa comes on a roller coaster this year! | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote

Inflation Has Already Peaked. Has Gold Peaked Too?

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 18.10.2021 11:50
Inflation reached its peak in June, but it doesn’t mean it will go away. The more persistent it is, the higher the odds of a rosy outcome for gold. The August CPI report makes it clear: inflation has already peaked. As the chart below shows, both the overall and core CPI have reached their fastest pace in June 2021. The former index surged 5.3% four months ago, while the latter soared 4.5%. Since then, we have been observing very gradual deceleration in the annual inflation rates. The noticed slowdown seems to confirm the central bank’s narrative that the inflationary surge is transitory. However, in a few past editions of the Fundamental Gold Report, I argued that the fact that inflation had peaked doesn’t mean that it would go away anytime soon. In particular, I pointed out the rallying Producer Price Index (as the supply-crisis is far from being resolved), the gradually rising index for shelter, and soaring home prices, which should translate into higher consumer prices in the future. As the French adage goes, nothing lasts like the temporary. The policymakers always describe unpleasant developments as “transitory problems” (just think of all the taxes introduced only for a while!), as magical thinking that the troubles will somehow resolve themselves is much more convenient than confronting the harsh reality and taking decisive actions. Of course, there is a grain of truth in the Fed’s line of thinking. After all, compared to the long run, not to mention the cosmological timescale, higher inflation will prove to be temporary. Yes, it was sarcasm, but Powell and his colleagues are, in a sense, right about transitory inflation. You see, as the market saying goes, the cure for high prices is high prices. As you can recall from your economics 101 class, prices are set by supply and demand. And when prices rise, producers are willing to sell more, while consumers are willing to buy less. Hence, a surge in the price of a given commodity will result in reduced demand and/or boosted supply. As a result, the price will decrease. We have recently observed this mechanism in action in the lumber market. As the chart below shows, lumber surged during the post-pandemic recovery, doubling its price from February 2020 by May 2021, but now it’s just about 30% higher than before the pandemic. The chart doesn’t lie, does it? So, inflation is transitory, as high prices are indeed a cure for high prices. Lumber’s fate is what’s waiting for all goods. But not so fast. This mechanism works only under certain conditions. It clearly doesn’t apply to hyperinflation, where surges in prices cause a decline in demand for money (consumers lose faith in a currency and try to spend their money as quickly as possible) and, in turn, even stronger price surges. Even more importantly, it applies only to market-specific supply issues, not to the general, economy-wide inflation. When higher prices are a result of idiosyncratic supply constraints, the market forces will work to bring the equilibrium back, curbing the price. For example, the producers of lumber could have outbid other entrepreneurs to obtain necessary inputs and expand their capacity to eliminate the shortage of lumber. However, when almost all prices go up, the situation is different, as all entrepreneurs cannot expand their capacities at the same time because all the inputs are scarce. Why do we know that the current inflation is broad-based and also demand-related rather than caused merely by supply disruptions? Well, the obvious clue is simply the number of markets that are experiencing shortages and sharp price rallies. The supply-chain crisis is not limited to lumber and semiconductors, it covers practically all commodities and many intermediate goods. In such a situation, the root cause of inflation must be excessive demand compared to supply. As I explained earlier in the Gold Market Overview, the consumer expenditures on goods surged 15% over the pandemic. Such an increase over a relatively short period turned out to be difficult to handle by entrepreneurs, especially under epidemic conditions, thus shortages emerged. But these supply-chain problems are ultimately demand-driven, as the supply-side of the economy simply cannot satisfy the consumers’ demand. To be clear, this extra demand hasn’t emerged out of nothing. It’s happened due to a shift in expenditures from services into goods and also because it’s the child of the Fed’s easy monetary policy and lax fiscal policy. The broad money supply is about 33% greater than it was before the pandemic (see the chart below). The widened fiscal deficits financed checks to Americans, which made inflation less limited only to financial assets and more broad-based. What does it all imply for the gold market? Well, the point is that the current inflation is more demand-driven than the Fed is ready to admit. As a result, my bet is that it will be more persistent than the central bank officially claims. More stubborn inflation may accelerate the Fed’s tightening cycle, which would hit the gold market. On the other hand, persistent inflation could at some point rattle the markets, boosting the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset and an inflation hedge. High inflation also implies subdued real interest rates, which should support gold prices. Last but not least, the more persistent elevated inflation is, the higher the odds of inflationary expectations de-anchoring and stagflation taking place, in which gold should shine. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
UK Budget Announcement - Commentary

Inflation Advances, and So Does Gold — Except That It Doesn’t

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 19.10.2021 19:53
Inflation accelerated again in September, and gold prices (finally!) reacted positively. Bad news: the rally was short-lived. Unfortunately, I was right. One month ago, when commenting on the CPI readings for August, I wrote that inflation “doesn’t have to go away anytime soon” and that the economic developments suggest that “inflation isn’t disappearing just yet.” And here we are, one month later, with inflation accelerating again. Indeed, the latest BLS report on inflation shows that the CPI rose 0.4% in September after increasing 0.3% in August. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, also accelerated to 0.2% in September from 0.1% in the preceding month. On an annual basis, inflation has also accelerated a bit, as the chart below shows. The overall index soared 5.4% in September, following 5.2% in the previous month (numbers seasonally adjusted). It was the biggest surge since July 2008 – and that was in the midst of the Great Recession. Meanwhile, the core CPI edged up from 3.98% to 4.04%. So, inflation is not transitory. On the contrary, the chart above shows that the June overall CPI reading functioned as a peak only temporarily. The fact that inflation rebounded to a new high is a final blow to the ‘transitory inflation’ narrative. Therefore, my warnings that inflation doesn’t have to go away anytime soon remain valid. Actually, my arguments have been strengthened by the recent data. Why? Well, inflation intensified despite the fact that several subindexes declined in September. As we can read in the BLS report: The index for airline fares continued to fall sharply, decreasing 6.4 percent over the month after falling 9.1 percent in August. The apparel index also decreased in September, declining 1.1 percent over the month after rising 0.4 percent in the previous month. The index for used cars and trucks fell 0.7 percent this month, continuing to decline after it decreased 1.5 percent in August. So, why didn’t inflation decrease? After all, the mainstream narrative was that inflation was caused by a few categories strongly linked to the pandemic and the reopening that followed. Well, here we are; these categories fell, but inflation rose. The answer to this puzzle is: the Fed officials and the pundits were wrong. Inflation is not limited to just a few categories because of the supply-chain disruptions, it’s a broad-based phenomenon caused by the increase in the broad money supply and in the monetary demand. More specifically, the declines in some subindexes were counterweighted by increases in others, in particular by the significant acceleration in the shelter index. As one can see in the chart below, the shelter index jumped 3.2% in September, much faster than the 2.8% observed in August. This acceleration is perfectly in line with my analyses. In September, I wrote: Secondly, the index for shelter – the biggest component of the CPI – has been rising gradually since February 2021, and it accelerated from 2.79% in July to 2.82% in August (…) As a reminder, home prices – which are not covered by the CPI – have been surging recently, which should translate into further increases in the index for shelter. Oh boy, I hate to be right! However, I’m afraid that consumer inflation could increase even further in the near future. Careful examination of the money supply growth implies that the real peak in inflation might occur in Q1 2022. Given the upward trend in home prices, the shelter index could continue its upward march. Last but not least, the surging Producer Price Index (see the chart above) might also add to the inflationary pressure. Implications for Gold What does the September report on CPI imply for the gold market? Well, the theory remains the same: high inflation should be positive for gold, as it is considered an inflation hedge. Higher inflation also means lower real interest rates and a weaker greenback, which should support gold prices. However, elevated inflation wasn’t supportive for the yellow metal so far, as it strengthened the expectations of the Fed’s tightening cycle, creating downward pressure on gold prices. All in all, the September report (which showed continuously rising inflationary pressure) made investors rethink the Fed’s transitory argument. These worries pushed gold prices to their resistance level of $1,800 on Thursday, as the chart below shows. Unfortunately for the gold bulls, any hopes of a more prolonged rally were quickly quenched, as the price of gold declined on Friday. So, it seems that until the Fed tapers its quantitative easing, gold will remain under downward pressure. Nonetheless, when it finally happens, better times may come for gold. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Wild Choppy Moves

Wild Choppy Moves

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 29.10.2021 15:27
One-sided S&P 500 session, perhaps a bit too much – the bulls are likely to face issues extending gains when VIX is examined. The stock market sentiment remains mixed, and one could easily be pardoned for expecting larger gains on yesterday‘s magnitute of the dollar slump. And long-dated Treasuries barely moved – their daily candle approximates nicely the volatility one as both give the impression of wanting to move a bit higher while their Thursday‘s move was a countertrend one.Not even value was able to surge past its Wednesday‘s setback, which makes me think the bears can return easily. At the same time, tech stepped into the void, and had a positive day, balancing the dowwnside S&P 500 risks significantly. The very short-term outlook in stocks is unclear, and choppy trading between yesterday‘s highs and 4,550 shouldn‘t be surprising today.At the same time, precious metals could have had a much stronger day – but the sentiment was risk-off in spite of the tanking dollar and doubted yields as the rising tech and gold at the expense of silver illustrate. Miners recent outperformance was absent just as much as commodities vigor with the exception of copper. And it‘s more celebrations in the red metal following its steep and far reaching correction, that‘s the part of missing ingredients as much as fresh inflation fears (yes, adding to risk-off mood, inflation expectations declined yesterday).All in all, it looks like a case of abundance of caution prior to next week‘s Fed, compounded by sluggish incoming data, where just cryptos are ready to move first.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 decisively reversed upwards, but the daily indicators barely moved – the consolidation doesn‘t look to be over.Credit MarketsHYG entirely reversed Wednesday‘s plunge but the low volume flashes amber light at least – the bulls are likely to stop for a moment.Gold, Silver and MinersGold upper knot doesn‘t bode as well as it did the prior Friday, and the same goes for miners. The yellow metal‘s strength was sold into, making it short-term problematic for the bulls.Crude OilCrude oil held $81 on not too shabby volume but the bulls are still on the defensive until $84 is overcome. When XLE starts outperforming VTV again, the outlook for black oil would improve considerably. Natgas falling this steeply yesterday isn‘t inspiring confidence either.CopperCopper finally reversed, and the upswing is a promising sign even though I would like to have seen higher volume. Again, the red metal remains well positioned to join in the commodities upswing once the taper announcement is absorbed.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin bulls are pausing while Ethereum ones keep running – cryptos are providing an encouraging sign (to be taken up by real assets) going into the Fed next week.SummaryChoppy trading in stocks is likely to continue even though 4,610s are closer than a break below 4,550s at the moment. Much nervousness in the markets before the coming Wednesday – cash is being raised while the dollar suffered in spite of daily move up in yields. Risk-off hasn‘t clearly retreated as seen in sectoral performance and VIX – time to be cautious while waiting out this soft patch in commodities that are most likely to return to scoring gains, accompanied by the retreating dollar.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Grinds Key Resistance

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Grinds Key Resistance

John Benjamin John Benjamin 01.11.2021 09:31
USDCHF bounces off demand zoneThe US dollar inched higher after a solid core PCE reading in September. The pair is testing the major demand area from last August’s lows (0.9100).A bearish MA cross on the daily chart has dented buyers’ optimism. An oversold RSI may attract a ‘buying-the-dips’ crowd while short-term sellers take some chips off the table.However, 0.9190 could be a challenging hurdle to lift as the bears would be eager to fade the rebound. A new round of sell-off would send the greenback to the daily support at 0.9020.EURGBP attempts to reboundThe euro found support from better-than-expected growth and inflation data. A bullish RSI divergence suggests that the downtrend may have lost its momentum.A break above 0.8470 has prompted sellers to cover some of their bets. But the RSI’s overbought situation has so far tempered the optimism.The bulls will need to lift offers around 0.8485 which sits on the 30-day moving average before they could turn the tables. Failing that, a drop below the demand zone between 0.8400 and 0.8420 would deepen the correction.GER 40 finds supportThe Dax 40 bounces back thanks to upbeat European stock earnings.A bullish MA cross on the daily chart is a sign of recovery. Though the index has hit a speed bump at 15775 which is a major resistance from last September’s sell-off.The drop below 15630 has led intraday buyers to bail out, driving short-term price action downward. As the RSI ventured into the oversold zone, the pullback attracted dip-buying interest at the lower range of the previous consolidation (15400). This is a congestion area along the MA cross.
Profit-Taking After Earnings May Send Stock Prices Lower

Profit-Taking After Earnings May Send Stock Prices Lower

Paul Rejczak Paul Rejczak 29.10.2021 15:30
  Stocks retraced their short-term decline yesterday, but today we may see a lower opening following the earnings releases. Is this a topping pattern? The S&P 500 index gained 0.98% on Thursday, Oct. 28, as it retraced its whole Tuesday’s-Wednesday’s decline to the support level of 4,550. It got back to the Tuesday’s record high of 4,598.53 yesterday. The daily close was just 2 points below that level. The stock market is still reacting to quarterly corporate earnings releases. Yesterday we got the releases from AAPL and AMZN, among others. But the first reaction to their numbers was negative. The market seems overbought in the short-term it is most likely fluctuating within a topping pattern. The nearest important support level is at 4,550, and the next support level is at 4,520-4,525, marked by the previous Wednesday’s daily gap up of 4,520.40-4,524.40. On the other hand, the resistance level is at around 4,600, marked by the new record high. Despite reaching new record highs, the S&P 500 remained below a very steep week-long upward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq Reached New Record! Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index was relatively weaker than the broad stock market recently, as it was still trading below the early September record high of around 15,700. But this week it rallied to the new record highs. The nearest important support level is now at 15,700, marked by the recent resistance level, as we can see on the daily chart: Dow Jones Is Relatively Weaker Again The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached the new record high of 35,892.92 on Tuesday and on Wednesday it sold off to around 35,500. Yesterday the blue-chip index didn’t retrace that decline. The support level remains at around 35,500-35,600, marked by the previous local highs, as we can see on the daily chart: Apple Rallied Before Earnings, and Microsoft Went Hyperbolic Let’s take a look at the two biggest stocks in the S&P 500 index, AAPL and MSFT. Apple released its earnings after yesterday’s close and the first reaction was negative. But the stock gained 2.50% at yesterday in regular trading hours. The resistance level remains at $154-156. It is still trading below the record highs, as we can see on the daily chart: Now let’s take a look at the MSFT. It rallied after Tuesday’s quarterly earnings release and on Wednesday it reached the record high price of $326.10. The market remained above its month-long upward trend line. Microsoft extends its long-term hyperbolic move higher. This week it got close to the $2.5 trillion dollar market cap! So the question is how much higher can it get? And it’s already not that cheap at all with its price to earnings ratio of around 40. Conclusion The S&P 500 index retraced its Tuesday’s-Wednesday’s decline yesterday and it got close to the Tuesday’s record high of 4,598.53. For now, it looks like a consolidation following an uptrend. However, the market is still overbought and we may see a bigger downward correction. There may be a profit-taking action following quarterly earnings releases. Today the main indices are expected to open 0.2-0.8% lower after yesterday’s earnings releases from AAPL and AMZN, and we will likely see an intraday correction. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 got close to the record high yesterday but today it may retrace some of the advance. A speculative short position is justified from the risk/reward perspective. We are expecting a 3% or higher correction from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Don‘t Fear Risk-Off

Don‘t Fear Risk-Off

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 01.11.2021 13:50
Not confirmed by bonds, the S&P 500 advances regardless – the daily yields retreat is powering tech while value goes nowhere. Higher beta sectors such as financials are sputtering, revealing the defensive nature of the stock market advance – at least to this degree, stocks and bonds are in tune. Yes, risk-off is winning these days, and it would be only up to VIX to join the fray, but the key volatility measure is likely to keep complacently trading around the 17 level. In other words, not too far from the bottom of its recent range, and not indicating imminent change of the bull market character.While we have seen much better market breadth readings in the years gone by (the narrow leadership is reminiscent perhaps of the late 1990s), there‘s no chart proof of the behemoths being in kind of getting really serious trouble (with the possible exception of Facebook). True, smallcaps have largely gone sideways over the many months, but midcaps are already breaking higher, and that won‘t be unnoticed by the Russell 2000 (soon to follow).The bears haven‘t thus far made any serious appearance, and 4,550s held with ease in spite of the dollar reversing Thursday‘s losses. All the more encouraging is the relative strength of both gold and silver when faced with one more daily decline in inflation expectations – as if balancing before the Fed act changes anything.I ask, how serious can they be about delivering on taper promises when prices increase relentlessly (look at Europe too), these are being blamed on supply chain bottlenecks without acknowledging their persistent and not transitory nature, and the real economy is markedly slowing down (not in a recession territory, but still)?Looking at commodities, we‘re reliving the 1970s, and cryptos are still the key beneficiary of monetary largesse – precious metals aren‘t a dead asset class in the least, they just frontrunned it all and peaked in August 2020 as I alerted you to back then. Fresh upswing is in the making.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 once again decisively reversed upwards, and even though the daily indicators are weakening, the rally can easily go on. Dips are to be bought.Credit MarketsHYG keeps acting weak, but this is being overlooked by stocks as tech remains driven by NYFANG.Gold, Silver and MinersGold‘s lower knot indicates accumulation, and miners reversing higher would be a great confirmation. Regardless, such a result when dollar rose steeply and yields with inflation expectations retreated, is encouraging.Crude OilCrude oil again held $81, looks set to return above $84 again. XOI and XLE weakness has to be understood in terms of the challenged VTV, and isn‘t here to stay.CopperCopper is providing a buying opportunity, and looks likely to join other base metals (especially alluminum) and broader commodity index strength as agrifoods wake up too.Bitcoin and EthereumThe Bitcoin and Ethereum upswings can go on – it looks to be a question of a relatively short time when cryptos are done with the sideways correction.SummaryS&P 500 indeed got at 4,610s instead of suffering setbacks, and the same holds true for real assets next. Across the board, these have performed well in spite of the USD upswing and decreasing inflation expectations, which I chalk down to pre-Wednesday positioning. Therefore, I‘m taking the high beta weakness with a pinch of salt, and the same goes for precious metals or the economic cycle sensitive copper. As for oil, the U.S. economy can (and will have to) withstand prices higher than $90 as 2022 arrives.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Hits Resistance - 02.11.2021

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Hits Resistance - 02.11.2021

John Benjamin John Benjamin 02.11.2021 08:42
USDCAD consolidates at 4-month lowThe US dollar retreats ahead of this week’s FOMC as traders await further catalysts. Price action has stabilized above 1.2300, a major demand zone from last summer.1.2430 from the latest sell-off is a key resistance as it coincides with the 20-day moving average. The current consolidation suggests the market’s indecision, though overall sentiment remains bearish.A deeper correction would send the greenback to 1.2150. A bullish breakout on the other hand may challenge the supply area around 1.2550.EURJPY tests key supportThe euro struggles to bounce higher after Germany’s lackluster retail sales in September.The pair has come under pressure at 133.45 near June’s peak. The subsequent retracement has met some bids at 131.60 when the RSI dipped into the oversold territory.The triple test of the support level indicates solid buying interest. However, the bulls will need to push above 132.80 before the uptrend could resume.On the downside, a bearish breakout would extend the sideways action towards 130.80 which sits on the 30-day moving average.US 100 falls back for supportThe Nasdaq 100 surges to a new all-time high as investors expect the strong growth trend to continue. The break above the previous peak at 15700 has put the index back on an upward trajectory.A bullish MA cross on the daily chart is a confirmation of the market’s optimism. However, a brief pullback is necessary to let the bulls catch their breath.15620 is the immediate support. Further down, 15280 is key daily support on the 20-day moving average. The psychological level of 16000 would be the next target rebound.
Bitcoin’s trading psychology - 02.11.2021

Bitcoin’s trading psychology - 02.11.2021

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 02.11.2021 09:49
BTC in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, leg analysis:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Daily chart as of October 25th, 2021.From a pure price perception, it might seem that the consistency bitcoin holds in price bubbles might be of the same origin, but they are not. In 2009, the value of the coin was zero, and fans exchanged it more like reminding of a seedy Star Wars bar exchange of true fans for a new idea, technology, beliefs, and freedom. Even so, bubbles arose a year later, and the price was driven by extreme supply and demand imbalances due to ill-liquidity when news hit the media.Since these times, we have seen all sorts of traders, speculators, investors, banks, hedge funds, governments join the speculation in a profitable market. Each with their specific mindset, interests, and trading psychology. The latest shift is now the race of governments getting a hold on the worldwide dominance reign. They will be true hodlers. Before that last influx, the bitcoin market was dominated by pure speculators for the most part. In a sense, they were forced into this market to stay competitive. Wide swings were the result since there was little incentive to stay in this game for the long term or, in other words, taking the risk on the large downswings.One first step, identifying in which market and cycle one is competing, are comparing up-legs in size (percentage) and steepness (time).The daily chart above shows such measurements of the last two significant moves in bitcoin this year.It has taken bitcoin only three months to more than double in price.BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, Projections:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of October 26th, 2021.With governments and the wider population now being the last to come to the party, we will see a shift in the trading behavior of bitcoin. This needs adjustment in one’s trading style to be part of this craze for the virtual, decentralized future.One such shift in the process may be a reduction of retracements depth within the second leg from a weekly perspective. We have drawn a projection of the second leg highly conservative in the chart above. Conservative, since second legs are typically longer, and we only assumed an identical extension to the first leg (1=2=3 in length and angle). BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, time accuracy:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of October 26th, 2021.Bitcoins’ childhood days have long passed. Seedy bar purchases have changed for high liquidity and professional exchanges with advanced order execution functionality. The big guns sit on the table, and as such, trading has shaped up. The individual is now playing against the best in the world, like in any other asset class, and risk should be perceived as such.Nevertheless, a larger time frame play for wealth preservation and a hedge against inflation is controllable in risk. Market participation analysis allows for a better grip on what to expect and scales in on targets from a time perspective. The above monthly chart illustrates our view of a possible future. The logarithmic chart shows best what inherent strength bitcoin possesses.Bitcoin´s trading psychology:The largest group that is not invested in bitcoin yet is the more significant part of average citizens. Consequently, we will find ourselves in an extreme supply demand imbalance due to bitcoins fixed limit of 21 million coins. More importantly, we will discover new trading behavior with a new group participating, with new psychology. These purchases will be made by amateurs who are motivated by fear more than greed. This market participant will be a long-term speculator trying to hold on to his investment versus making a quick buck. We anticipate more moderate overall retracements percentagewise. As well, we expect steeper legs up. These will result in a different system needed to participate in a market with low-risk entry points.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Korbinian Koller|October 26th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, bitcoin consolidation, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
The US dollar retreats ahead of this week’s FOMC as traders await further catalysts

The US dollar retreats ahead of this week’s FOMC as traders await further catalysts

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 02.11.2021 10:19
EURJPY tests key support. USDCAD consolidates at 4-month low 1.2430 from the latest sell-off is a key resistance as it coincides with the 20-day moving average. The current consolidation suggests the market’s indecision, though overall sentiment remains bearish. A deeper correction would send the greenback to 1.2150. A bullish breakout on the other hand may challenge the supply area around 1.2550. EURJPY tests key support The euro struggles to bounce higher after Germany’s lackluster retail sales in September. The pair has come under pressure at 133.45 near June’s peak. The subsequent retracement has met some bids at 131.60 when the RSI dipped into the oversold territory. The triple test of the support level indicates solid buying interest. However, the bulls will need to push above 132.80 before the uptrend could resume. On the downside, a bearish breakout would extend the sideways action towards 130.80 which sits on the 30-day moving average. US 100 falls back for support The Nasdaq 100 surges to a new all-time high as investors expect the strong growth trend to continue. The break above the previous peak at 15700 has put the index back on an upward trajectory. A bullish MA cross on the daily chart is a confirmation of the market’s optimism. However, a brief pullback is necessary to let the bulls catch their breath. 15620 is the immediate support. Further down, 15280 is key daily support on the 20-day moving average. The psychological level of 16000 would be the next target rebound.
Silver’s fuse is about to be lit

Silver’s fuse is about to be lit

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 30.10.2021 16:45
The average investor is news-driven. As much as the Federals Reserve  (the Fed) might be criticized, this large investor group is not commonly doubting news. In other words, it has generally believed the Fed’s narrative that inflation is transitory. The bad news is rarely released shortly before Christmas. However, it would not surprise if tapering started in early 2022. And maybe not just begin but be more aggressive throughout the year as expected. With this, the narrative will change from a “we are not worried, it is transitory” to a “we need to deal with” regarding inflation. Therefore, this could easily be the fire to the fuse of the Silver rocket. We now see early signs of such a lift-off in price in recent silver price movements. Silver’s fuse is about to be lit. Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart, low-risk entry points: Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of October 30th, 2021. It isn’t only that the overall narrative on transitory inflation is starting to get holes. We like the silver play, for instance because gold is somewhat in the limelight in battle with bitcoin. Consequently, allowing for silver to shine while it is typically in the shadow. On top of it all, we find clear evidence that commodities with industrial use are likely in a long term bull market. This is a play where everything is coming together. A multi stream both in fundamental and technical edges stack upon each other. As of right now, we have identified four low-risk entry points on the daily silver chart, which are marked in bright green horizontal lines. We would take off 50% of the position near the US$26 mark to mitigate risk (see our quad exit strategy). Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, good risk reward ratio: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of October 30th, 2021. The weekly chart offers a low-risk opportunity as well. We illustrated above a play that assumes an entry point in the lower third quadrant of the yellow marked sideways zone. It would provide for a risk/reward-ratio between 1:1 and 1:2 towards the financing point. As well we assume an exit of half of the position at the top near US$28 of the yellow sideways channel (see our quad exit strategy). With two more exits of each 25% of total trade equity at targets US$34.83 and US$48.72, we find the weekly play to be conducive to our low-risk policy.  Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart, favorable probabilities: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of October 30th, 2021. With its most considerable weight, the monthly chart provides the necessary overview. It shows how likely a success rate to a long-term play outcome is. We find three dominant aspects supporting our aim for a bullish long-term play. Trend: The linear regression channel is marked in diagonal lines (red, blue, green). It shows a clearly bullish trend with a high likelihood of continuation. Support: The Ichimoku cloud analysis provides solid evidence of support to the recently established bullish tone in silver. Probabilities: Price highs from 1980 to 2011 built a double top price formation. As a result, it prevented prices from getting higher than the price zone marked with a white box. The third attempt of price reaching this price zone nevertheless has a much higher statistical probability of penetrating this distribution zone and allowing the price to go higher. Silver’s fuse is about to be lit: We find ourselves in challenging times. Certainly, not only in market play. One of the essential pillars to come out ahead is bending in the wind and staying flexible. Should the FED indeed raise interest rates to a degree non-reflected in the anticipated market price of speculators and come as a surprise, we might see a stock market decline next year of a substantial percentage. Consequently, this would temporarily drag silver prices down as well. We share methods in our free Telegram channel to build low-risk positions within the market that reduce risk through partial profit-taking. Our quad exit strategy allows us to hedge physical acquisitions by trading around these positions on smaller time frames in the silver paper market. Our approach provides a way to maneuver through a delicate environment to hedge against inflation and preserve wealth. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.
Fed Game Plan

Fed Game Plan

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 02.11.2021 14:54
S&P 500 hesitation against weakening bonds – what gives? The yield curve keeps flattening, but long-dated Treasury yields seem again on the verge of another upswing, which hasn‘t propped up the dollar yesterday much. The only fly in the ointment of a risk-off atmosphere, was value outperforming tech. Overall, stocks haven‘t made much progress, and are vulnerable to a quick downswing attempt, which probably though wouldn‘t come today as the VIX doesn‘t look to favor it. Wednesday, that could be another matter entirely. Still, there is no imminent change to the stock bull run on the horizon – the focus remains on ongoing Fed accomodations, which s why: (…) The bears haven‘t thus far made any serious appearance, and 4,550s held with ease in spite of the dollar reversing Thursday‘s losses. All the more encouraging is the relative strength of both gold and silver when faced with one more daily decline in inflation expectations – as if balancing before the Fed act changes anything. I ask, how serious can they be about delivering on taper promises when prices increase relentlessly (look at Europe too), these are being blamed on supply chain bottlenecks without acknowledging their persistent and not transitory nature, and the real economy is markedly slowing down (not in a recession territory, but still)? Tomorrow‘s Fed taper announcement wouldn‘t change a lot – so much can (and will) happen in the meantime, allowing them to backpedal on the projections, making rate hikes even more of a pipe dream. The Fed isn‘t taking inflation seriously, hiding behind the transitory sophistry, and that‘s one of the key drivers of rates marching up, rising commodities, and surging cryptos. Look for more oil and natgas appreciation while copper goes up again too. Precious metals are still waiting for a catalyst (think dollar weakening when even rising rates won‘t provide much support, and inflation expectations trending up faster than yields) – a paradigm shift in broader recognition of Fed obfuscation and monetary policy being behind the curve. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 is entering a brief consolidation, with 4,590s being first support, followed by the high 4,550s (if the bears can make it there). Given though yesterday‘s sectoral rotation, that‘s not likely happening today. Credit Markets HYG keeps acting really weak, volume is picking up, and buyers aren‘t able to force at least a lower knot. Rising yields aren‘t reflecting confidence in the economic recovery, but arrival of stagflation bets. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold indeed swung higher, but needs more follow through including volume, otherwise we‘re still waiting for the catalysts mentioned at the opening part of today‘s analysis, which would also help the silver to gold ratio move higher. Crude Oil Crude oil keeps going up again,and is likely to extend gains above $84 even as this level presents a short-term resistance. Copper Copper buying opportunity is still here, and the red metal is primed to play catch up to the CRB Index again. Probably not so vigorous as before, and taking more time to unfold, but still. Bitcoin and Ethereum The Bitcoin and Ethereum upswings can and do go on – as stated yesterday, it was a question of a relatively short time when cryptos are done with the sideways correction. Summary S&P 500 is likely to pause today, and the bond market performance would be illuminating. Ideally for the bulls, some semblance of stabilization would occur, tipping the (bullish) hand for tomorrow. That‘s the big picture view - the very initial reaction to taper announcement would likely be disappointing, and eventually reversed. Cryptos, commodities (first oil, then copper) would react best, with precious metals figuring it out only later. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
What Might it Take for the Fed to Deliver a Hawkish Tapering Announcement?

What Might it Take for the Fed to Deliver a Hawkish Tapering Announcement?

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 03.11.2021 14:43
Overview: With the FOMC's decision several hours away, the dollar is trading lower against nearly all the major currencies.  The Antipodeans and Norwegian krone are leading.  The euro, yen, and sterling are posting minor gains (less than 0.1%).  Most of the freely liquid and accessible emerging market currencies are also firmer.  The Turkish lira is a notable exception.  The decline in the core inflation and a smaller than expected rise in the headline pace embolden officials for another rate cut when the central bank meets on November 18.  The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is rising for the second consecutive session after falling in the previous four sessions.  Equities are lower.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the fifth session in the past six.  Among the large markets, Taiwan and Australia bucked the trend.  The four-day advance of the Stoxx 600 in Europe is at risk, and US futures are weaker.   Benchmark 10 year yields are mostly two-four basis points lower across most high-income countries today.  That puts the US 10-year Treasury yield near 1.52%.  Australia's two-year yield fell almost 10 bp to 0.55%.  It had peaked above 0.71% last week.   The three-year yield is off nearly 30 bp in recent days.  Gold continues to chop within the range set last Friday (~$1772-$1801).  Ahead of the OPEC+ meeting tomorrow amid talk that the US may seek to coordinate sales for a coalition of strategic reserves and a build of US inventories reported by API weigh on oil prices.  December WTI has approached the 20-day moving average (~$82), which has not closed below since late August. Base metals are higher as iron ore snapped a five-day slide during which it lost over 20%.  Copper is also recovering after forging a base in the $432-$433 area.  It is up around 1.5% today.  If sustained, it would be the largest gain in three weeks.   Asia Pacific China's Caixin services unexpectedly rose to 53.8 from 53.4 in September.  Recall that the manufacturing reading had improved to 50.6 from 50.0.  The net effect was that the composite edged up to 51.5 from 51.4.  The composite has converged with the "official" PMI, which stands at 50.8.  Separately, note that China is experiencing a broad spread of the virus into a dozen provinces, and the number of new cases is the highest in a couple of months. Inter-provincial travel has been restricted, and new social protocols are being introduced.  According to reports, the government advised households to stock up in necessities and ensure adequate food supplies for local authorities.  Australia's service and composite PMI shows the recovery was not quite as strong as the preliminary data suggested.  The service PMI rose to 51.8, not 52.0  from 45.5.  The composite stands at 52.1 rather than 52.2.  It was at 46 in September.   Tomorrow Australia reports Q3 real retail sales, but it will still be picking up the weakness of the lockdown.  September trade figures will also be reported.  Weaker exports and stronger imports are expected to have narrowed the trade surplus by almost 20% to A$12.4 bln. Ahead of the weekend, the central bank will make its Monetary Policy Statement.  The swaps market is pricing in 70 bp, down from 80 bp, of tightening over the next 12 months.  The dollar has been confined to a narrow quarter yen range through the Asian session and most of the European morning.  Softer yields and equities would be expected to give the yen a bit of support.  The 20-day moving average is near JPY113.65, and the greenback has not closed below it since the September FOMC meeting.  In the bigger picture, we have suggested the dollar-yen rally from mid-September through mid-October puts the dollar in a new range.  We suspected JPY114.50-JPY115.00 marks the upper end and JPY113.00 may be the lower end.  The Australian dollar fell almost 1.4% yesterday, its largest decline since May.  It reached $0.7420 yesterday, just above the $0.7410 (38.2% retracement objective of last month's rally).  It has stabilized today and has (so far) been capped near $0.7450.  Resistance is seen in the $0.7460-$0.7470 area.   For two weeks, the Chinese yuan has been alternating between advances and declines, and net-net little changed over the period.  Yesterday, the yuan slipped (0.04%), and today it is firmer (0.06%).  The PBOC has consistently set the dollar's reference rate above model projections, and today's fix was at CNY6.4079 compared with median expectations (Bloomberg) for CNY6.4068.  The PBOC was unexpectedly generous in its open market operations, injecting CNY50 bln. As a result, the overnight repo rate fell 12 bp to 1.99%.   Europe Norway's central bank meets tomorrow.  It was the first of the high-income countries to raise rates this year, so far, followed only by New Zealand.  We overstated the case for Norway to hike rates at the meeting, but don't be mistaken. The case for a rate hike exists, but the pattern is not to move at these "off-meetings" (without updated formal policy path guidance).  Instead, officials will likely confirm their intentions to raise rates in December. The swaps market is pricing in almost three hikes next year.   The dollar trended lower against the Nokkie since August 20. The downward momentum stalled in late October.  Yesterday it rose above NOK8.50 for the first time since mid-October.  The momentum indicators have turned up.  The 200-day moving average is slightly below NOK8.55 and near NOK8.60 is the (38.2%) retracement of the down move.  The UK is emerging from the economic soft patch in the June-August period.  The final service and composite PMI report today showed stronger activity than the preliminary estimates.  The service PMI rose to 59.1 from 55.4 in September.  The flash estimate had put it at 58.0.  The composite stands at 57.8, up from the preliminary projection of 56.8 and September 54.9.    The Bank of England meets tomorrow.  There does not seem to be much conviction, and the market appears divided. In the Bloomberg survey, 22 out of 45 economists expect a hike that seems to have been largely discounted by the markets (15 bp).  Three of the largest UK banks do not expect a hike.  Some observers argue that what is the point of stopping now when it would end next month. We often think the signaling channel of QE is under-appreciated.  Stopping the bond-buying now adds to the seriousness of the moment if it does not lift rates. Sterling has retreated by 2.3 cents since last week's high to approach $1.36 yesterday in the US. The euro reached its lowest level against sterling since March 2020 in late October near GBP0.8400, and yesterday rose to above GBP0.8500 for the first time since October 12.   Poland's central bank is expected to hike the base rate 25 bp today to 0.75%.  Recall that it hiked 40 bp last month to begin the cycle.  It started later than Czech and Hungary.  Preliminary October CPI rose 1% on the month, accelerating the year-over-year pace to 6.8% (from 5.9% in September.  It was at 5% as recently as July.  The Czech central bank meets Friday and is expected to hike the repo rate 75 bp to 2.25%.  After two quarter-point hikes (June and August), it hiked by 75 bp in September. Inflation (CPI) rose to 4.9% in September from 4.1% in August.  It is the highest since 2008.  Turkey's CPI rose by 2.39% last month to bring the year-over-year rate to 19.89% (19.58% in September), slightly lower than expected.  The core rate slipped slightly to 16.82% from 16.98%.   The euro has been confined to about a quarter of a cent range above $1.1575 so far.  It stalled yesterday near $1.1615, the (50%) retracement of the pre-weekend slide from almost $1.1700 to $1.1535.  It is making session highs in the European morning, but we look for a less friendly North American session.  There are options for about 530 mln euros at $1.16 that expire today.  A hawkish Fed (see below) could bring option expirations tomorrow at $1.1525 (~825 mln euros ) and $1.1550 (~900 mln euros) into play.  Sterling tested $1.36 yesterday, the lowest level since October 13.  It has hardly managed to distance itself from the lows.  It found new offers near $1.3635.   There is a GBP675 mln option expiring today at $1.3650.  A larger one (~GBP820) is at $1.3615 also expires but has liked been neutralized.   America It seems well appreciated that the Federal Reserve will announce it will begin slowing the bond purchases. Most expect a reduction of $10 bln of Treasuries and $5 bln of Agency MBS.  Investors appear to be anticipating the monthly reduction of these amounts through June 2022.  Even with yesterday's upticks, the June Fed funds futures contract continues to discount a rate hike then.  If the effective Fed funds rate is steady in the first half of June at eight basis points and then rises to 33 bp for the second half of the month (25 bp rate hike on June 15), the average effective rate is about 20.5 bp.  The contract settled at an implied rate of 20 bp yesterday.   Since this is already in the market, the tapering announcement itself may not be hawkish.  There are two steps the Fed could take if it wanted to drive home the point.  First, the FOMC statement has been referring to inflation as largely "transitory."  It could simply drop this qualifier or modify it.  The Chair has already acknowledged that it will likely persist longer than initially anticipated.  Indeed, next week's CPI report is expected (Bloomberg survey median) is expected to have risen by 0.5%, which, given the 0.1% increase in October 2020, means the 12-month rate will accelerate to around 5.8%.   Second, after the last press conference, Powell was asked about needing to reduce monetary stimulus while the Fed was still engaged in QE.  The Bank of England said it would hike if necessary while it was still buying bonds.  Powell said in that situation, the Fed would not send contradictory signals but accelerate the tapering process.  Quicker tapering would be a hawkish signal, and reaction by the market would likely bring forward the first hike.   The Democratic Party lost the Virginia gubernatorial context.  Biden had carried the state by 10 percentage points last year, and the preliminary results suggest a loss of suburban voters, a key part of the new Democratic coalition.  New Jersey's governor contest is very close, and the Democratic incumbent is trailing. The results play on ideas that the Democrats are likely to lose both houses of Congress in next year's mid-term election, in which it is common for the party in the White House to lose seats.  Some in the press have been critical that Xi and Putin are not attending COP-26, but their leadership was always in doubt.  The election results may undermine US leadership because Biden's commitments may not get legislative support, and executive decisions could be reversed in 2024.   Today could be the first day since October 13 that the US dollar does not trade below CAD1.2400.  Still, note that the greenback remains in the CAD1.2300-CAD1.2435 range set last Wednesday when the Bank of Canada turned more hawkish.  Yesterday, the US dollar closed above its 20-day moving average for the first time since late September.  We suspect corrective forces could lift the exchange rate toward CAD1.2475, where the (38.2%) retracement of last month's decline is found, and the 200-day moving average (~CAD1.2485).  However, in its way stands the $920 mln option at CAD1.2450 that expires today.  The greenback reached almost MXN20.92120 yesterday, a new eight-month high. Sellers emerged, and the dollar closed lower to snap a five-day advance.  It is softer today but holding above yesterday's low (~MXN20.71).  Ahead of the FOMC outcome, the market may be cautious about taking the dollar below the MXN20.66-MXN20.70 area.   Disclaimer
Lip Service to Inflation, Again

Lip Service to Inflation, Again

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 03.11.2021 14:54
S&P 500 quick downswing attempt indeed didn‘t come – fresh highs were confirmed by bonds. Even if just on a daily basis, that‘s where the bias is – long stocks still, but with a wary eye as Treasuries and corporate bonds need to kick in on a more than daily basis. I‘m taking it as that the bullish expectations for today are really high – so much so that better than expected non-farm employment change resulted in a sell the news reaction. So, how does that line up with today‘s FOMC? Dovish undertones are obviously expected – at least in attempting to sweep the hot inflation under the rug, spinning it somehow else than with the tired transitory horse. Discredited one too. So, how would the taper message be delivered, and could it go as far as $15bn a month asset purchase reduction while avoiding rate hike mentions as much as possible? Even if $15bn is indeed the announced figure, I‘m looking for the Fed to soften it before it can run its course, i.e. before 2H 2022 arrives – the economy isn‘t in such a great shape to take it, and the fresh spending bill (whatever the price tag), needs central bank‘s support too. Let‘s recall my yesterday‘s words about how that‘s likely to translate into market moves: (…) Overall, stocks haven‘t made much progress, and are vulnerable to a quick downswing attempt, which probably though wouldn‘t come today as the VIX doesn‘t look to favor it. Wednesday, that could be another matter entirely. Still, there is no imminent change to the stock bull run on the horizon – the focus remains on ongoing Fed accomodations. Tomorrow‘s Fed taper announcement wouldn‘t change a lot – so much can (and will) happen in the meantime, allowing them to backpedal on the projections, making rate hikes even more of a pipe dream. The Fed isn‘t taking inflation seriously, hiding behind the transitory sophistry, and that‘s one of the key drivers of rates marching up, rising commodities, and surging cryptos. Look for more oil and natgas appreciation while copper goes up again too. Precious metals are still waiting for a catalyst (think dollar weakening when even rising rates won‘t provide much support, and inflation expectations trending up faster than yields) – a paradigm shift in broader recognition of Fed obfuscation and monetary policy being behind the curve. The Fed turning even more dovish than expected, would light the fireworks – they‘re likely to pay lip service to inflation similarly to Jun, but it won‘t pack the same punch. Inflation expectations haven‘t peaked, and the yield curve is about to steepen again as rates would mostly be moving higher. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 keeps rising, and is setting itself up for a brief disappointment. We aren‘t though making a top with capital t. Credit Markets Universal risk-on move in the credit market, on volume that didn‘t disappoint, which just confirms the bulls‘ overall technical advantage. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold downswing left a lot to be desired – we aren‘t likely staring at a true slide next. I actually look for silver (and the cyclically sensitive commodities such as copper, and also oil) to outperform gold in the wake of the Fed move. Crude Oil Crude oil didn‘t move much on a closing basis, but the bulls need more time to retake the reins. Copper Copper really doesn‘t want to decline, and remains slated to play catch up to the CRB Index again. The improving bullish outlook requires just time now – selling volume is drying up, tellingly... Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum bulls haven‘t yielded, and keep the overall technical advantage. Should prices dip below $58K in BTC without solid buying materializing, now that would make me wary. But the Fed won‘t be hawkish., no. Summary Potential S&P 500 bear raid is approaching, and the more dovish the Fed would be, the shallower dip in stocks can be expected. Yes, the bulls keep having the upper hand – credit markets have behaved. As mentioned yesterday, that‘s the big picture view - the very initial reaction to taper announcement would likely be reversed higher. Cryptos, oil, copper would react best, with precious metals figuring it out only later – unless the Fed negatively surprises, in which case cryptos would be prone to wilder swings (but not downside reversal in earnest). Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
November Monthly

November Monthly

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 03.11.2021 15:17
Three main forces are shaping the business and investment climate:  Surging energy prices, a dramatic backing up of short-term interest rates in Anglo-American countries, and the persistence of supply chain disruptions.  The US and Europe have likely passed peak growth.  Fiscal policy will be less accommodative, and financial conditions have tightened. Japan appears to be getting a handle on Covid and after a slow start.  Its vaccination rate has surpassed the US.  The lifting of the formal state of emergency and a hefty dose of fiscal stimulus is expected to be delivered in the coming months. Many developing economies have already lifted rates, some like Brazil and Russia, aggressively so.  They will likely finish earlier too.      US light sweet crude oil rose nearly 12% last month, even though US inventories rose last month for the first time since April.   The price of WTI rose almost 10% in September.  Statistically, the rise in oil prices is strongly correlated with the increase in inflation expectations.  OPEC+ will boost supplies by another 400k barrels a day at the start of November and is committed to the same monthly increase well into 2022.   At the same time, new Covid infections in several Asia-Pacific countries, including China, Singapore, and Australia, warn of the risk of continued supply-chain disruptions.  In Europe, Germany and the UK recently reported the most cases since the spring. Belgium is tightening curbs.  Bulgaria is seeing a rise in infections, and Romania was at full capacity in its intensive care facilities.  The fact that Latvia lags the EU in vaccination at about 50% leaves it vulnerable.  The US may be lagging behind Europe, and the next four-six weeks will be critical.  Roughly 40% of Americans are not fully vaccinated.   The rise in price pressures and the gradual acknowledgment by many central bankers that inflation may be more persistent have helped spur a significant backing up of short-term rates in the Anglo-American economies. The ultimately deflationary implications of the surge in energy prices through demand destruction and the implications for less monetary and fiscal support still seem under-appreciated. Yet, the market has priced in aggressive tightening of monetary policy over the next 12 months.   The focus of the foreign exchange market seems squarely on monetary policy.  From a high level, the central banks perceived to be ahead in the monetary cycle have seen stronger currencies. The likely laggards, like the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, and the ECB, have currencies that underperformed.  Norway and New Zealand have already raised rates and are expected to do so again in November.    Of course, as you drill down, discrepancies appear.  In October, the Australian dollar was the top performer among the major currencies with a 4% gain.  It edged out the New Zealand dollar and the Norwegian krone, whose central banks are ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia.  The RBA has pushed against market speculation that has 90 bp of tightening priced into 12-month swaps.  The Australian dollar outperformed sterling by about 2.5% in October even though the Bank of England has been so hawkish with its comments that the market had little choice but to price in a high probability of a hike as early as the November meeting.  In fact, the market has the UK's base rate above 50 bp by the end of Q1 22.  This is important because in its forward guidance that BOE has identified that as the threshold for it to begin unwinding QE by stopping reinvesting maturing issues.  Interestingly enough, when the BOE meets on March 17 next year, it will have a sizeable GBP28 bln maturity in its portfolio.   In an unusual quirk of the calendar, the Federal Reserve meets before the release of the October jobs report.  All indications point to the start of the tapering process.  It is currently buying $120 bln a month of Treasuries ($80 bln) and Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities.  The pace of the reduction of purchases is a function of the duration, and the Fed has clearly indicated the tapering will be complete around mid-year. That suggests reducing the purchases by about $15 bln a month.  Chair Powell indicated that unlike the Bank of England, the Fed will stop its bond purchases before raising rates. A faster pace of tapering would be a hawkish signal as it would allow for an earlier rate hike.  The gap between when the tapering ends and the first rate hike does not appear predetermined. Powell has talked about the economic prerequisites, which emphasize a full and inclusive labor market in the current context. The Fed funds futures entirely discount a 25 hike in July, with the risk of a move in June.  Comments by several officials hint that the Fed may drop its characterization of inflation as transitory, which would also be understood as a hawkish development.   Partly owing to the extended emergency in Japan, it is marching to the beat of a different drummer than the other high-income countries. Inflation is not a problem.  In September, the headline rate rose to 0.2% year-over-year, the highest since August 2020.  However, this is a function of fresh food and energy prices, without which the consumer inflation stuck below zero (-0.5%).  In December 2019, it stood at 0.9%.  In addition, while fiscal policy will be less accommodative in Europe and the US, a sizeable supplemental budget (~JPY30 trillion) is expected to be unveiled later this year.   After expanding by 1.3% quarter-over-quarter in Q2, the Chinese economy slowed to a crawl of 0.2% in Q3, which was half the pace expected by economists. Some of the decline in economic activity resulted from the virus and natural disasters (floods). Still, some of it stemmed from an effort to cut emissions in steel and other sectors.  The problems in China's property development space, accounting for a large part of its high-yield bond market,  unsettled global markets briefly.  Talk of a Lehman-like event seems a gross exaggeration. Still, given the sector's importance to China's economy (30% broadly measured) and the use of real estate as an investment vehicle, it may precipitate a structural shift in the economy.   The Communist Party and the state are reasserting control over the economy's private sector and the internet and social network.  It has also weighed in on family decisions, like the number of children one has, how long a minor should play video games, the length of men's hair, what kind of attributes entertainers should have, and appropriate songs to be played with karaoke.   It seems to be reminiscent of part of the Cultural Revolution and a broader economic reform agenda like Deng Xiaoping did in the late 1970s and Zhu Rongji in the 1990s.  At the same time, Beijing is wrestling with reducing emissions and soaring energy prices, which also dampen growth. Even though consumer inflation is not a problem in China (0.7% year-over-year in September), Chinese officials still seem reluctant to launch new stimulative fiscal or monetary initiatives. Moreover, new outbreaks of the virus could exacerbate the supply chain disruptions and delays fuel inflation in many countries.  The aggressiveness in which investors are pricing G10 tightening weighed on emerging market currencies in October.  The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index fell by almost 0.8% last month after falling 2.9% in September, the largest decline since March 2020.  The continued politicization of Turkey's monetary policy and the aggressive easing saw the lira tumble nearly 7.5% last month, which brings the year-to-date depreciation to 22.5%.   On the other hand, Brazil's central bank has aggressively hiked rates, and the 150 bp increase in late October brought this year's tightening to 575 bp and lifting the Selic to 7.75%.  Yet, it is still below the inflation rate (10.34% October), and the government has lost the confidence of domestic and international business.  The Brazilian real fell nearly 3.5% last month to bring the year-to-date loss to almost 7.8%.   Our GDP-weighted currency basket, the Bannockburn World Currency Index, snapped a two-month decline and rose by 0.35%.  The rise in the index reflects the outperformance of the currencies against the dollar.  The currencies from the G10 countries, including the dollar, account for about two-thirds of the index, and emerging markets, including China, the other third.  The yen was the weakest of the majors, falling 2.3%.  It has a weighting of 7.5% in the BWCI.   Among the emerging market currencies in our GDP-weighted currency index, the Brazilian real's 3.4% decline was the largest, but its 2.1% weighting minimizes the drag.  It was nearly offset by the Russian rouble's 2.5% advance.  It has a 2.2% weighting in our basket.  The Chinese yuan, which has a 21.8% share, rose by 0.6%.      Dollar:   The market is pricing in very aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve.  As recently as late September, only half of the Fed officials anticipated a hike in 2022.  The December 2022 Fed funds futures are pricing in a little more than two hikes next year. More than that, the market is discounting the first hike in June next year, implying a transition from completing the bond-buying to raising rates with no time gap.  The disappointing 2% Q3 GDP exaggerated the slowing of the world's largest economy.  We note that the supply-side challenges in vehicle production halved the growth rate.  Growth is likely to re-accelerate in Q4, but we continue to believe that the peak has passed.  While inflation is elevated, the pace of increase slowed in Q3.  Consider that the PCE deflator that the Fed targets rose at an annualized rate of 4.0% in Q3 after a 5.6% pace in Q2.  The core rate slowed to an annualized pace of 3.3% last quarter, half of the speed in the previous three months.  The infrastructure spending plans have been reduced, and some of the proposed tax hikes, including on corporations, appear to be dropped as part of the compromise among the Democratic Party.   Euro:  For most of Q3, the euro has been in a $1.17-$1.19 trading range.  It broke down in late September, and was unable to recapture it in October.  Instead, it recorded a new low for the year near $1.1525.  A convincing break of the $1.1500 area could signal a move toward $1.1300. The single currency drew little support because growth differentials swung in its favor in Q3:  the Eurozone expanded by 2.2% quarter-over-quarter while the US grew 2% at an annualized pace.  The ECB is sticking to its analysis that the rise in inflation is due to transitory factors while recognizing that energy prices may prove more sticky.  That said, news that Gazprom may boost gas sales to Europe after it finishes replenishing Russian inventories after the first week in November, natural gas prices fall at the end of October.  After the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program ends next March, decisions about the asset purchases next year will be announced at the December ECB meeting along with updated forecasts.   (October indicative closing prices, previous in parentheses)   Spot: $1.1560 ($1.1580) Median Bloomberg One-month Forecast $1.1579 ($1.1660)  One-month forward  $1.1568 ($1.1585)    One-month implied vol  5.1%  (5.1%)         Japanese Yen:  The dollar rose 2.3% against the yen in October to bring the year-to-date gain to nearly 9.5%.  The Bank of Japan will lag behind most high-income countries in the tightening cycle, and the higher US yields are a crucial driver of the greenback's gains against the yen.  Japan's headline inflation and core measure, which only excludes fresh food, may be rising, but they are barely above zero and, in any event, are due to the surge in energy prices. In response to the weakening yen, Japanese investors appear to have boosted their investment in foreign bonds, while foreign investors increased their holdings of Japanese stocks.  The LDP and Komeito maintained a majority in the lower chamber of the Diet. A sizeable stimulus supplemental budget is expected to help strengthen the economic recovery now that the formal emergencies have been lifted.  In Q3, the dollar traded mainly between JPY109 and JPY111.  It traded higher in the second half of September rising to nearly JPY112.00.  The dollar-yen exchange rate often seems to be rangebound, and when it looks like it is trending, it is frequently moving to a new range.  We have suggested the upper end of the new range may initially be the JPY114.50-JPY115.00.  The four-year high set last month was about JPY114.70.  A move above JPY115.60 could target the JPY118.50 area.     Spot: JPY113.95 (JPY111.30)       Median Bloomberg One-month Forecast JPY112.98 (JPY111.00)      One-month forward JPY113.90 (JPY111.25)    One-month implied vol  6.4% (5.6%)   British Pound:  Sterling rallied around 4 1/3 cents from the late September low near $1.34.  The momentum stalled in front of the 200-day moving average (~$1.3850).  After several attempts, the market appeared to give up.  We anticipate a move into the $1.3575-$1.3625 initially, and possibly a return toward the September low. The implied yield of the December 2021 short-sterling interest rate futures rose from 22 bp at the end of September to 47 bp at the end of October as the market.  It was encouraged by Bank of England officials to prepare for a hike at the meeting on November 4, ostensibly while it is still providing support via Gilt purchases.  If there is a surprise here, it could be that, given the unexpected softening of September CPI and the fifth consecutive monthly decline in retail sales, rising Covid cases, that the BOE chooses to take the more orthodox route.  This would entail ending its bond purchases, as two MPC members argued (dissented) at the previous meeting and holding off lifting rates a little longer.        Spot: $1.3682 ($1.3475)    Median Bloomberg One-month Forecast $1.3691 ($1.3630)  One-month forward $1.3680 ($1.3480)   One-month implied vol 6.8% (7.1%)      Canadian Dollar:  The three drivers for the exchange rate moved in the Canadian dollar's favor in October and helped it snap a four-month slide against the US dollar.  First, the general appetite for risk was strong, as illustrated by the strength of global stocks and the record highs in the US.  Second, the premium Canada pays on two-year money more than doubled last month to almost 60 bp from 25 bp at the end of September.  Third, commodity prices in general and oil, in particular, extended their recent gains.  The CRB Index rose 3.8% last month, the 11th monthly increase in the past 12, to reach seven-year highs.  The Bank of Canada unexpectedly stopped its new bond purchases and appeared to signal it would likely raise rates earlier than it had previously indicated.  The swaps market is pricing 125 bp of rate hikes over the next 12 months, with the first move next March or April.  Still, the US dollar's downside momentum stalled near CAD1.2300.  There is scope for a corrective phase that could carry the greenback into the CAD1.2475-CAD1.2500 area.     Spot: CAD1.2388 (CAD 1.2680)  Median Bloomberg One-month Forecast CAD1.2395 (CAD1.2580) One-month forward CAD1.2389 (CAD1.2685)    One-month implied vol 6.2% (6.9%)      Australian Dollar:  The Aussie's 4% gain last month snapped a four-month, roughly 6.5% downdraft.  Despite RBA Governor Lowe's guidance that the central bank does not anticipate that the condition to hike rates will exist before 2024 is being challenged by the market.  Underlying inflation rose above 2% in Q3. The central bank's failure to continue defending the 10 bp target of the April 2024 bond spurred speculation that it would be formally abandoned at the November 2 policy meeting.  The RBA's inaction unsettled the debt market.  The two-year yield soared almost 70 bp last month, and the 10-year yield rose nearly 60 bp.  Although the RBA could have handled the situation better, New Zealand rates jumped even more.  Its two-year yield jumped 80 bp while the 10-year yield surged by 58 bp.  Last month, the Australian dollar's rally took it from around $0.7200 to slightly more than $0.7550, where it seemed to stall, just in front of the 200-day moving average.  We suspect the October rally has run its course and see the Aussie vulnerable to a corrective phase that could push it back toward $0.7370-$0.7400.  The New Zealand dollar has also stalled ($0.7220), and we see potential toward $0.7050.       Spot:  $0.7518 ($0.7230)        Median Bloomberg One-Month Forecast $0.7409 ($0.7290)      One-month forward  $0.7525 ($0.7235)     One-month implied vol 9.1  (9.0%)        Mexican Peso:  The peso eked out a minor gain against the dollar last month.  However, the nearly 0.4% gain understated the swings in the exchange rate last month.  The dollar's recovery seen in the second half of September from almost MXN19.85 to nearly MXN20.40 at the end of the month was extended to a seven-month high around MXN20.90 on October 12.  It then proceeded to fall to almost MXN20.12 before the greenback was bought again.  A move above the MXN20.60 area now would likely signal a test on last month's high and possibly higher. Recall that the dollar peaked this year's peak set in March was near MXN21.6350. The economy unexpectedly contracted in Q3  by 0.2% (quarter-over-quarter).  Nevertheless, with the year-over-year CPI at 6% in September, Banxico will see little choice but to hike rates at the November 11 meeting. The market expects a 25 bp increase.  A 50 bp hike is more likely than standing pat.       Spot: MXN20.56 (MXN20.64)   Median Bloomberg One-Month Forecast  MXN20.42 (MXN20.41)   One-month forward  MXN20.65 (MXN20.74)     One-month implied vol 9.6% (11.0%)      Chinese Yuan: Our starting point is the yuan's exchange rate is closely managed.  The fact that the yuan rose to four-month highs against the dollar and a five-year high against the currency basket (CFETS) that the PBOC tracks imply a tacit acceptance.  While it is tempting for observers to link the appreciation to securing an advantage as it secures energy supplies and other commodities, we note that the yuan's gains are too small (0.6% last month and less than 2% year-to-date) to be impactful.  We suspect that the dollar's recent weakness against the yuan will be unwound shortly.  The US government continues to press its concerns about the risk for investors in Chinese companies listed in the US and American companies operating in China. At the same time, the FTSE Russell flagship benchmark began including mainland bonds for the first time.  China's 10-year government bond is the only one among the large bond markets where the yield has declined so far this year (~16 bp).  On the other hand, Chinese stocks have underperformed.  That said, some investors see this underperformance as a new buying opportunity.  The NASDAQ Golden Dragon Index that tracks Chinese companies listed in the US fell by 30% in Q3 and gained 5% in October, its best month since February.  Lastly, the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party meets November 8-11 this year, a prelude to the important National Party Congress in 2022 that is expected to formally signal the third term for President Xi.     Spot: CNY6.4055 (CNY6.4450) Median Bloomberg One-month Forecast  CNY6.4430 (CNY6.4470)  One-month forward CNY6.4230 (CNY6.4725)    One-month implied vol  3.5% (3.4%)    Disclaimer
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Struggles To Bounce Back

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Struggles To Bounce Back

John Benjamin John Benjamin 04.11.2021 08:38
EURUSD claws back lossesThe US dollar fell after the Federal Reserve called for patience on raising interest rates.The pair has met strong resistance at 1.1690, a previous demand zone on the daily chart that has turned into a supply one. The latest sell-off has been contained by 1.1535, near the base of the recent rebound as an oversold RSI attracted some bargain hunters.A surge above the intermediate resistance of 1.1620 would bring in more momentum traders. Then a break above 1.1690 could kickstart a bullish reversal in favor of the euro.XAUUSD tests resistanceGold recovers as the US dollar softens across the board following a neutral FOMC.Price action had previously struggled to clear the supply area around 1810, the origin of the September correction. The subsequent fall below the support at 1785 has prompted buyers to take profit.However, the RSI’s repeated oversold situation has caught buyers’ attention at the daily support at 1760. 1785 is the hurdle ahead and a bullish breakout would resume the recovery. Failing that, the bears may push towards 1740.USOIL falls back for supportWTI crude slipped after the EIA reported a larger increase in US inventories. The psychological level of 85.00 has been an effective hurdle so far.The previous fall below 81.00 has put the bulls on the defensive, especially after their failure to achieve a new high above 84.70. This is a confirmation that sentiment has grown cautious after the price’s recent vertical ascent.The RSI’s overbought situation on the daily chart could call for a pullback. 79.50 is the closest support. Its breach may send the price to 76.50.
S&P 500’s Advance Isn’t Broad-Based, a Topping Pattern?

S&P 500’s Advance Isn’t Broad-Based, a Topping Pattern?

Paul Rejczak Paul Rejczak 01.11.2021 13:36
  The S&P 500 extended its bull market on Friday as it reached the new record high above the 4,600 level. Is this still a topping pattern? The S&P 500 index gained 0.19% on Friday, Oct. 29, as it extended its recent advance following a lower opening of the trading session. It reached yet another new record high of 4,608.08. The stock market was reacting to worse-than-expected quarterly corporate earnings releases from the AAPL and AMZN. However, the MSFT and TSLA stocks drove the index higher again on Friday. The market seems overbought in the short-term most likely it’s still trading within a topping pattern. The nearest important support level is at 4,550-4,570, and the next support level is at 4,520-4,525, marked by the previous daily gap up of 4,520.40-4,524.40. On the other hand, the resistance level is now at around 4,650. The S&P 500 trades along a short-term upward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Apple Is Volatile While Microsoft Keeps Rallying Let’s take a look at the two biggest stocks in the S&P 500 index, AAPL and MSFT. Apple released its earnings after the Thursday’s close and the first reaction was negative. But on Friday the stock retraced some of its intraday decline. Nevertheless it lost 1.8%. The resistance level remains at $154-156. It is still trading well below the record highs, as we can see on the daily chart: Now let’s take a look at MSFT. It keeps rallying and reaching new record highs after its last week’s Tuesday’s quarterly earnings release. The market remains above a month-long upward trend line. We can see that in the short-term it’s getting more and more technically overbought. The stock may enter a consolidation or a correction just like in the middle of August when it rallied above $300 level. Conclusion The S&P 500 index reached the news record high on Friday, however it closed with a gain of just 0.2%. It still looks like a topping pattern and we may see a consolidation or a downward correction at some point. There may be a profit-taking action following quarterly earnings releases. Today the main indices are expected to open 0.4% higher, but we will likely see an intraday correction later in the day. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 reached new record high on Friday, as it broke slightly above the 4,600 level. A speculative short position is still justified from the risk/reward perspective. We are expecting a 3% or higher correction from the new record highs. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Leading the Taper Run

Leading the Taper Run

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 05.11.2021 15:02
No S&P 500 pause to speak of – bonds support the buying pressure. The broad turn to risk-on has value holding up relatively well while tech remains in the driver‘s seat. The daily weakness in financials looks misleading, and as a function of retreat in yields – I‘m looking for stabilization followed by higher prices. Real estate though is starting to smell a rat – I mean rates, rising rates. Slowly as the Fed didn‘t give the green light, but they would acommodate the unyielding inflation.There was something in the taper announcement for everyone – the hawks are grasping at the possibility to increase taper pace should the Fed start to deem inflation as unpleasantly hot. I wrote about the dovish side I take already on Wednesday when recapping my expectations into the meeting.Coupled with non-farm payrolls coming in above expectations, the table is set to reassure the stock bulls that further gains are possible while the lagging commodities move up. Precious metals would continue recovering from the pre-taper anxiety, and miners with copper kicking back in, would be the confirmation. The dollar should welcome the figure corresponding to yields increase, buying a little more time.One more note on oil – its downswing is positive for the stock bulls as its retreat works to increase disposable income, and in the zero rates environment, kind of acts as a shadow Fed funds rate. Regardless, I‘m standing by the call for triple digit oil prices in 2022.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 fireworks are continuing with improving participation, and the path of least resistance remains higher.Credit MarketsUniversal risk-on move in the credit market still continues, and the long HYG knot isn‘t a sign of a reversal – the bulls merely got ahead of themselves, that‘s all.Gold, Silver and MinersGold easily reversed the pre-taper weakness, and so did silver. I‘m now looking for the miners to catch up, and a good signal thereof would be a fresh commodities upswing. No, CRB Index hasn‘t peaked.Crude OilCrude oil hasn‘t peaked either, and appears attracting buying interest already. While $80 were breached, the commodity is getting ahead of itself on the downside – the oil sector doesn‘t confirm such weakness.CopperCopper has stabilized in the low 4.30s, and an upswing attempt is readying – its underperformance of CRB Index would get reversed.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum consolidation goes on, and nothing has changed since yesterday – stabilization followed by slow grind higher is what‘s most likely next.SummaryS&P 500 stands to benefit from real economy revival, earnings projections and taper being conducted in the least disruptive way, apparently. Credit markets have made up their mind, and aren‘t protesting the risk-on sentiment, which has come from a temporary commodities retreat (hello, China). Inflation worries should though still return to the fore as the rising rates aren‘t as much a result of improving economy and yield spreads, which the precious metals are sensing already.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Gold FINALLY Breaks Free Amidst S&P INSANITY

Gold FINALLY Breaks Free Amidst S&P INSANITY

Mark Mead Baillie Mark Mead Baillie 08.11.2021 08:13
Gold, after 18 weeks of being stuck in a maniacal Short trend without price really going anywhere, FINALLY broke the bonds of the M word crowd by flipping to Long -- but not without a mid-week scare: more later on that affair. But we begin by assessing the stark INSANITY besetting the parabolic performance of the S&P 500, +25% year-to-date. It settled yesterday (Friday) at 4698 (reaching 4718 intra-day), a record closing high for the seventh consecutive session. Such phenomenon has occurred but five other times in the past 41 years! So here's a multiple choice question for you: Ready? Across all those years (i.e. from 1980-to-date), what is the longest stretch of time between all-time highs for the S&P 500? â–  a) eight monthsâ–  b) just over three yearsâ–  c) slightly less than six yearsâ–  d) all of the above (for you WestPalmBeachers down there)â–  e) none of the above If having answered "e)", you are correct: the longest stint was almost seven-and-one-quarter years from 24 March 2000 through the DotComBomb up to 13 Jul 2007. 'Twas the complete antithesis of the current paradigm of an all-time high every single trading day. But wait, there's more: those of you who were with us way back in the days at AvidTrader may recall our technically having "mild", "moderate" and "extreme" readings of both oversold and overbought conditions for the S&P. Well, get a load of this: yesterday was the S&P's 12th consecutive day with an "extremely overbought" reading. During these 41 years, that has only happened once before, 36 years ago in 1985. And the price/earnings ratio then was a respectable 10.5x: today 'tis five times that much at 54.4x (!!!) easily more than double the S&P's lifetime median P/E (since 1957) of 20.4x. And still more: Every time the S&P moves from one 100-point milestone to the next, 'tis a FinMedia "big headline deal", albeit the percentage increase comparably narrows. Nonetheless, trading gains and losses are measured by the point, not the percentage. And from 1980-to-date, the S&P has gone from 100 to now 4700, (i.e. through 46 milestones. Upon having just achieved the 4600 level on 29 October, the average number of trading days over these past 41 years to reach each 100-point milestone is 236 (just about a year's worth). But now from 4600-4700 took just five days! Cue John McEnroe: "You canNOT be SERious!!" 'Course, every trend reaches a bend, if not its end. And whilst the market is never wrong, something will the S&P upend. You regular readers already know the "earnings are not there" to support even one-half the S&P's current level. Moreover, 'tis said when the Federal Open Market Committee does nudge up its Bank's Funds rate, 'twill be "Game Over" for the S&P, (something of which the Fed is very fearful). "But mmb, even a rise from just 0.25% to only 0.50% maintains a really low rate..." Nominally still low, yes Squire: but upon it occurring, the Fed shall have doubled the cost for every bank that comes to the borrowing window, from which one can then ask banking clientele: "How's that variable rate loan workin' out for ya?" And thus falleth the first domino. And the S&P. Have a great day. Gold had a great day yesterday in settling out the week at 1820. But as noted, 'twas not before a mid-week scare. With Gold wallowing on "The Taper of Paper" Wednesday -- down at 1758 (a three-week low) -- the tried-and-true, widely followed daily moving average convergence divergence (MACD) crossed to negative. Such previous 11 negative crossings had averaged downside follow-through of 86 points. Thus within that technical vacuum, another run sub-1700 was placed on Gold's table. What instead followed was a one-day whipsaw, Gold's MACD finishing the week with a positive cross, and even better, the weekly parabolic Short trend FINALLY being bust per the first Gold-encircled dot in our weekly bars graphic: FINALLY too Gold had its first Friday in five of not being flogged ostensibly by the M word crowd. Should they thus have left the building, in concert with both the daily MACD back on the positive side and the weekly parabolic again Long, the door is open for Gold to glide up into the 1900s toward concluding 2021. As for the five primary BEGOS Markets, here are their respective percentage tracks from one month ago (21 trading days)-to-date, the S&P having swiftly replaced Oil as the leader of the pack. Of more import, note the rightmost bounce for Gold and the Bond. Why are those two stalwart safe havens suddenly getting the bid? (See our opening commentary on S&P INSANITY): Meanwhile as we waltz into the waning two weeks of Q3 Earnings Season, of the S&P's 505 constituents, 426 have reported (450 is typically the total within the seasonal calendar), of which 340 (80%) have bettered their bottom lines from Q3 of a year ago when much of the world purportedly was "shut down". Thus such significant improvement was expected: "They better have bettered!" Yet as noted, our "live" P/E is at present 54.4x. Thus to bring earnings up to snuff such as to reduce the P/E to its lifetime median of 20.4x, bottom lines need increase by 167%: but the median year-over-year increase (for those 396 constituents with positive earnings from both a year ago and now) is only 19%. Thus for those of you scoring at home, a 19% increase is nowhere near the "requisite" 167%. "Look Ma! Still no earnings!" (Crash). Still earning to grasp good grace is the track of the Economic Barometer, which bopped up a bit on the week's headline numbers. To be sure, October's Payrolls improved with a decline in the Unemployment Rate and a jump in the Institute for Supply Management's Services Index. But with a return of folks to the workplace (excluding those who've post-COVID decided they don't need to work) came a plunge in Q3's Productivity combined with a spike in Unit Labor Costs. As well, October's growth in Hourly Earnings slowed and the Average Workweek shortened, such combination suggesting temporary jobs materially lifted the overall Payrolls number. Also less highlighted was September's slowing in Factory Orders, shrinkage in Construction Spending, and the largest Trade Deficit recorded in the Baro's 24-year history. Here's the whole picture from one year ago-to-date with the S&P standing up straight: To our proprietary Gold technicals we go, the two-panel graphic featuring price's daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left with the 10-day Market Profile on the right. And note the "Baby Blues" of linear regression trend consistency being abruptly stopped in their downward path thanks to Friday's "super-bar" -- Gold's best intra-day low-to-high run in nearly four weeks -- and the highest closing price since 04 September. As well in the Profile, price sits atop the entire stack, which you'll recall for the prior two weeks was at best a congestive mess. But to quote Inspecteur Clouseau, "Not any moooure...": As for Silver, she's not as yet generating as much comparable excitement. At left, her "Baby Blues" continue to slip even as price gained ground into week's end. At right, the price of 24 clearly is her near-term "line in the sand". Still, our concern a week ago of her falling into the low 22s has somewhat abated, albeit the daily parabolic trend remains Short; however a quick move to 24.700 ought nix that condition. "C'mon, Sister Silver!": So there it all is. We see Gold as poised to FINALLY move higher toward year-end, (barring a resurgence of the M word crowd). And we see the S&P as poised for its off-the-edge-of-the-Bell-curve INSANITY to cease, (barring an economic erosion that instead furthers the flow of free dough). After all, bad is good, just as Gold is always good. In that spirit to conclude for this week, here are three good bits from a few of the smartest (so we're told) people in the world: Betsey "With an e" Stevenson says with respect to folks not returning to the workforce post-COVID that "...It’s like the whole country is in some kind of union renegotiation..." That is True Blue Michigan-speak right there. But think about it: when you've got a) the upper labor hand, and b) the aforementioned free dough that you popped into the stock market to thus gain some 38% since the economy first shutdown, why work, eh? Besides, the feeling of marked-to-market wealth is a beautiful thing. Elon "Spacey" Musk now notes that Tesla has not contracted with Hertz to sell 100,000 four-wheel batteries. Recall when that deal first was announced, the price of TSLA went up many times more than the additional incremental return of the transaction. But hardly has it since retracted. 'Course, the company's Q3 earnings were "fantastic", in turn nicely bringing down the stock's P/E to just now 345.8x. And comparably as you already know, the only other two S&P 500 constituents classified as being in the sub-industry category of "Automobile Manufacturers" are Ford (P/E now 26.1x) and General Motors (P/E now 7.7x). But a shiny object that rolls, too, is a beautiful thing. Peter "Techie" Thiel has just opined that the soaring price of bits**t is indicative of inflation being at a "crisis moment" for the economy. 'Tis not ours to question this notion; rather 'tis beyond our pay grade to understand it. What we do understand is that THE time-tested (understatement) indicator and mitigator of inflation -- i.e. Gold -- is priced at such an attractively low level versus where it "ought" be (i.e. 3981 per our opening graphic's decree), that never again such a beautiful opportunity shall we see! Cheers! ...m... www.deMeadville.com www.TheGoldUpdate.com
Target Hit! Another Successful Call on Natural Gas

Target Hit! Another Successful Call on Natural Gas

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 05.11.2021 15:10
  Have you ever tracked your progress during your oil and gas trading journey and seen such trades? Read on… and come aboard! In the previous edition published last week and updated on Monday, I projected the likelihood of a sturdy support level on the gas market – Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGZ21) Futures – for going long around the $5.268-5.361 zone (yellow band), with a relatively tight stop just below $5.070 and targets at $5.750 and $5.890. So, the market indeed sank just below that band to trigger an entry on Monday, and then it was suddenly pushed back up by the bulls waiting to take over the price to the upward direction. This long trade was also supported by the fundamentals, as the heating needs for the month of November were gradually increasing. The weather forecasts appeared to orientate the demand upwards backed by an uninterrupted demand for Liquefied Natural gas (LNG) US exports. Then, Nat-Gas hit the first target at $5.750 on Wednesday, and stopped at the $5.876 mark – located just $0.014 below the second projected target at $5.890 – on Thursday! Regarding Crude Oil, a new entry, provided to our premium subscribers on Wednesday has just being triggered. The black gold is now attempting to rebound onto that support, which acts as a new floor. Trading Charts Chart – Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGZ21) Futures (December contract, daily chart) Now, let’s zoom into the 4H chart to observe the recent price action all around the abovementioned levels of our trade plan: Chart – Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGZ21) Futures (December contract, 4H chart) In conclusion, my trading approach has led me to suggest some long trades around potential key supports - natural gas recently offered multiple opportunities to take advantage of dips onto those projected levels. If you don’t want to miss any future trading alerts, make sure to look at our Premium Section. Have a nice weekend! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Meaning Of The Bull Market - The Opposition To The Bear One

Where‘s the Beef?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 04.11.2021 15:18
S&P 500 embraced the dovish taper - $10bn a month pace gives the Fed quite a breathing room without having to revisit the decision unless markets force it to. The taper is as dovish as can be, with rate raising escaping attention. Talk of no rocking the boat, for the markets, economy and fiscal policy initiatives just can‘t do without. The more dovish scenario of my yesterday‘s presentation came true: (…) So, how would the taper message be delivered, and could it go as far as $15bn a month asset purchase reduction while avoiding rate hike mentions as much as possible? Even if $15bn is indeed the announced figure, I‘m looking for the Fed to soften it before it can run its course, i.e. before 2H 2022 arrives – the economy isn‘t in such a great shape to take it, and the fresh spending bill (whatever the price tag), needs central bank‘s support too. The initial reaction has been very positive in stocks, and overly weak in precious metals and commodities. The real assets downswings are though being reversed in line with my Tuesday‘s expectations – and in today‘s premarket tweets on the unfolding price moves. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 rose without any brief disappointment – the top with capital t clearly isn‘t in, so don‘t think about standing in the bulls‘ way much. Credit Markets Universal risk-on move in the credit market continues, and the sectoral reaction to rising Treassury yields is a very positive one. Bonds and stocks are obviously seeing through the taper fog. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold was afraid of the hawkish outcome, which had zero real chance of happening – and miners spurted higher decisively first. Let‘s see the initial and misleading weakness in real assets being reversed, one by one – and silver do great again. Crude Oil Crude oil has likewise flashed extraordinary weakness – one to be reversed with vengeance. The Fed can‘t print oil, and the energy crunch goes on as nothing has changed yesterday for black gold. Copper Copper gyrations don‘t change the fact the red metal is ready to swing higher next. Just wait for its reaction when broader strength returns to the CRB Index – we won‘t have to wait too long. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum haven‘t been jubilant about the dovish news, but haven‘t come down beforehand either. Stabilization followed by slow grind higher is what‘s most likely next. Summary S&P 500 benefited the most from the taper message delivery, and the bulls keep having the upper hand – with increasing confirmation from the credit markets. The very initial reaction to taper announcement – namely its bearish anticipation – is indeed being reversed higher within commodities and precious metals. No tantrum, no rocking the boat – and asset prices are going to love that. Get ready for rising yields that would gradually stop underpinning the dollar – patience with the latter. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Silver, patience pays

Silver, patience pays

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 08.11.2021 08:13
Here is what you should consider when asking why it isn’t trading even higher. First, after an initial up-leg like this, a trend is set in motion, but it is just the beginning of a trend. It needs time to develop. Most of the reasons debated this year when silver stepped into the limelight were the reasons the traders anticipated fueling the first leg. A big part is that it takes time until the public digests the market, which is ahead of reality, a speculative prognosis on how the future might look. There is a trickle-down effect until silver can build up its second leg. From an active market speculator perspective, inflation is real, but years can pass until the crowd realizes what is going on. Then gold needs to move, which in turn awakens silver with a delay. Gold in US-Dollar, monthly chart, bull as bull can be: Gold in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 5th, 2021. The monthly gold chart above shows the strong bullish trend in gold over the last twenty years. Telltales are a higher high in 2020 versus 2011, and the price strength since. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart, getting ready: Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 5th, 2021. The weekly chart has just come alive to an exciting inflection point. A closer look reveals that price has successfully built a second leg from the US$1,680 double bottom price zone (yellow lines). The upcoming weeks should show if a double triangle formation (red lines) was severed now that the price is trading above POC support of a fractal volume study (white line). Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, looking good: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 5th, 2021. The weekly silver chart is bullish as well. Bulls have successfully defended the yearly range lows zone (slim white box). They mutually are attacking an overhead resistance with quite some might, and upcoming weeks might find price successful in that attempt. Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart, history as a guide: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 5th, 2021. The above monthly chart shows an excellent example of how much patience is needed to earn significant profits from a silver investment. In this case, silver initiated a range break in 1973, where prices tripled within a year. Much like silver’s recent move from March last year to the current top in February this year. It showed a similar percentage move. This first leg of a bullish trend required more than three years of investor’s patience before the second leg was initiated. Those patient enough to hold on were rewarded with a near thousand percent price increase.   Silver, patience pays: “It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting.”Nothing has changed in the last hundred years about the principle value of this quote by Edwin Lefèvre (Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, published in 1923). We are used to active participation in a process to earn one’s wages. In this aspect however, the market is counterintuitive. “The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money every day, as though they were working for regular wages.” Lefèvre again points towards patience and a state of inactivity being just right in market play. We find the last phase of silver in a sideways range if anything is encouraging to a substantial second leg up in the making, It will therefore reward the patient owner of his physical holdings. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.
USDJPY best at support at 113.40/30 again today

USDJPY best at support at 113.40/30 again today

Jason Sen Jason Sen 02.11.2021 10:50
USDJPY best at support at 113.40/30 again today. EURJPY up one day, down the next day in the sideways trend for over a week. Becoming more erratic & therefore difficult to trade. CADJPY also more random & more erratic last week, although shorts at first resistance at 9240/60 work again yesterday with a 70 pip profit offered this morning. Update daily at 06:30 GMT Today's Analysis. USDJPY first support again at 113.40/30. Longs need stops below 113.20 so the risk is very small. A break lower is a sell signal targeting 113.00/112.90 & 112.60/50 for profit taking on shorts. Longs at 113.40/30 target 113.80/90. We should pause here but further gains meet minor resistance at last week's high of 114.25/30. Strong resistance at the October high of 114.50/70. Shorts need stops above 114.80. A break higher is a medium term buy signal. EURJPY first support at 131.60/40, stop below 131.35. A break lower is a sell signal initially targeting 130.90 & we could hold here initially, maybe even bounce to 131.40/50. Further losses meet an important buying opportunity at 130.40/20 with stops below 130.00 First resistance at 132.20/30 . Above 132.40 can target 132.90, perhaps as far as strong resistance at October's high of 133.30/50. CADJPY shorts at first resistance at 9240/60 worth a try again targeting 9200 & 9175 (hit as I write). A buying opportunity at 9120/00 with stops below 9090. Gains are likely to be limited with first resistance at 9240/60. However a break higher retests October's high at 9295/9305. Emini S&P December on the way to the next target of 4625/35 this week. Longs at first support at 4590/85 starting to work. Nasdaq December closed at the new all time high at 159864 keeping the outlook positive for this week as we hit the next target of 15900/950. Emini Dow Jones December making a clear break above the all time high at 35540/550 for a buy signal as we hit the next target of 35800/850 & now look for 36000/100. Update daily at 07:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Emini S&P longs at first support at 4590/85 are expected to target 4625/35 but a high for the day is likely if tested today. Shorts are very risky of course in the bull trend. A break above 4645 is the next buy signal. First support at 4590/85. Longs need stops below 4575. Strong support at 4545/35. Longs need stops below 4525. Nasdaq December now expected to target 15900/950 (hit yesterday) & now 16050/080. Downside is expected to be limited ion the bull trend with first support at 15780/750. Stop below 15720. A break lower targets 15670 with strong support at 15580/540. Longs need stops below 15500. Emini Dow Jones December now targeting 35800/850 & 36000/100, even as far as 36250/280. Downside is expected to be limited with minor support at 35670/650 & 35525/500. A buying opportunity at 35320/280 with stops below 35250. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
A New Profitable Call on Crude Oil: “The Yoyo-Trade”

A New Profitable Call on Crude Oil: “The Yoyo-Trade”

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 08.11.2021 16:54
Was the adage "buy the rumor, sell the news" also verified with that new trading position? It was Thursday (Nov. 4) that the following rumor had flourished: a possible coordinated action which was supposed to consist of drawing on the strategic reserves of several countries, including the United States, which were leading the dance. Meanwhile, our subscribers were just getting ready to go long around the $76.57-79.65 support zone (yellow band), with a stop placed on lower $76.48 level (red dotted line) and targets at $81.80 and $83.40 (green dotted lines). As a result, oil prices had contracted in stride (trading just into our entry area), just before the rumor effect faded shortly on Friday (Nov. 5), to push them back up. In fact, with oil prices picking up momentum on Friday, once again settling firmly above $80 per barrel, and with a market still showing doubts on the possible use of strategic crude reserves, the proposed trade entry on the black gold, triggered on Thursday – following my last post – was thus profitable since it already turned into a partial profit-taking at the end of the week. Then, on Saturday, Joe Biden said that his administration had the means to cope with the rise in energy prices, in particular after the OPEC+'s decision not to raise their production to more than 400,000 barrels per day. in a context of global imbalance between supply and demand. In addition, Joe Biden also insinuated that the organization (and its allies) might actually not do its best to pump enough volume of crude oil. Trading Charts Chart – WTI Crude Oil (CLZ21) Futures (December contract, daily chart) Now, let’s zoom into the 4H chart to observe the recent price action all around the above-mentioned levels of our trade plan: Chart – WTI Crude Oil (CLZ21) Futures (December contract, 4H chart) In summary, my trading approach has led me to suggest some long trades around potential key supports, as this dip on crude oil offered a great opportunity for the bulls to enter long whilst aiming towards specific projected targets. If you don’t want to miss any future trading alerts, make sure to look at here. . Moreover, for those interested in Forex trading, please note that I am currently preparing some new series about the co-existing links and relationships between commodities and currencies. Stay tuned – happy trading! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Getting Back To Risky Assets As A Result Of Russian Move?

Calling the Precious Metals Bull

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 08.11.2021 16:54
S&P 500 paused to a degree, but bonds didn‘t – we‘re far from a peak. That though doesn‘t mean a brief correction (having a proper look at the chart, sideways consolidation not reaching more than a precious couple of percentage points down) won‘t arrive still this month. It‘s a question of time, and I think it would be driven by tech weakness as the sector has reached lofty levels. It‘ll go higher still, but this is the time for value and smallcaps. And when the dollar starts rolling over to the downside (I‘m looking at the early Dec debt ceiling drama to trigger it off), emerging markets would love that. And commodities with precious metals too, of course – sensing the upcoming greenback weakness has been part and parcel of the gold and silver resilience of late. Precious metals are only getting started, but the greatest fireworks would come early spring 2022 when the Fed‘s failure to act on inflation becomes broadly acknowledged. For now, they‘re still getting away with the transitory talking points, and chalking it down to supply chain issues. As if these could solve the balance sheet expansion or fresh (most probably again short-dated) Treasuries issuance (come Dec) – the Fed is also way behind other central banks in raising rates. Canada, Mexico and many others have already moved while UK and Australia are signalling readiness – the U.S. central bank is joined by ECB in hesitating. Don‘t look for the oil breather to last too long – black gold is well bid above $78, and hasn‘t made its peak in 2021, let alone 2022. As I wrote on Friday, its downswing that works to increase disposable income (serving as a shadow Fed funds rate in the zero rates environment), would prove short-lived. The real economy would have to come to terms with stubbornly high oil prices – and it will manage. The yield curve is starting to steepen modestly again, and fresh spending initiatives would breathe some life into the stalling GDP growth. Next year though, don‘t be surprised by a particularly weak (even negative) quarterly reading, but we aren‘t there by a long shot, I‘m telling you. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 looks getting ripe for taking a pause – the rising volume isn‘t able to push it much higher intraday. Credit Markets HYG strength indeed continues, and it‘s a good sign that quality debt instruments are joining – the reprieve won‘t last long though (think a few brief weeks before rates start rising again). Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver continue reversing the pre-taper weakness, and miners are indeed joining in. I‘m looking for more gains with every dip being bought. Crude Oil Crude oil hasn‘t peaked, and looks getting ready to consolidate with a bullish bias again. $85 hasn‘t been the top, and the energy sector remains primed to do well. Copper Copper is deceptively weak, and actually internally strong when other base metals are examined. As more money flows into commodities, look for the red metal to start doing better – commodities haven‘t topped yet. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum consolidation has come to an end, and the pre-positioned bulls have a reason to celebrate as my prior scenario– stabilization followed by slow grind higher is what‘s most likely next – came to fruition. Summary S&P 500 breather is a question of time, but shouldn‘t reach far on the downside – the credit markets don‘t support it. Commodities are catching up in the (dovish as assessed by the markets too) taper aftermath, and precious metals are sniffing the dollar‘s weakness a few short weeks ahead. With fresh money not needed to repair commercial banks‘ balance sheets, it flows into the financial markets, and the taper effects would be negated by the repo operations – yes, I‘m not looking for a liquidity crunch. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
USD Index: Are New Milestones in the Cards?

USD Index: Are New Milestones in the Cards?

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 08.11.2021 16:54
While the greenback's failed breakout on Nov. 4th may seem bearish, it faced a similar situation in August and October, only to recover and achieve new highs. After the USD Index’s negative response to the ECB’s monetary policy meeting on Oct. 28, I warned on Oct. 29 that dollar bears were unlikely to celebrate for much longer. I wrote: Based on the rather random comment during the conference, the traders panicked and bought the EUR/USD, which triggered declines in the USD Index (after all, the EUR/USD is the largest component of the USDX). Was the breakout to new 2021 lows invalidated? No. The true breakout was above the late-March highs (the August highs also served as a support level, but the March high is more important here) and it wasn’t invalidated. What was the follow-up action? At the moment of writing these words, the USDX is up and trading at about 93.52, which is just 0.07 below the August high in terms of the closing prices. Consequently, it could easily be the case that the USD Index ends today’s session (and the week) back above this level. You’ve probably heard the saying that time is more important than price. It’s the end of the month, so let’s check what happened in the case of previous turns of the month; that’s where we usually see major price turnarounds. I marked the short-term turnarounds close to the turns of the month with horizontal dashed blue lines, and it appears that, in the recent past, there was practically always some sort of a turnaround close to the end of the month. Consequently, seeing a turnaround (and a bottom) in the USD index now would be perfectly normal. And after the forecast turned into reality, the USD Index surged above 94 and remains poised to resume its uptrend over the medium term. To explain, if we zoom in on the four-hour chart, it highlights the importance of the price action on Nov. 5. During the session, the USD Index hit a new 2021 intraday high before a small reversal occurred. This might seem bearish at the first sight (it’s a failed breakout, after all)… However, similar developments were also present in August and October. After the dollar basket attempted to make new highs and failed, the greenback eventually regained its composure and achieved the milestones. As a result, another 2021 high should occur sooner rather than later. Please see below: The first failed attempt to break above the previous highs triggered sizable short-term declines. This happened in August (marked with red). The second – September – attempt triggered only a small correction (marked with green) that was then followed by a bigger rally. Similarly, the – marked with red – October invalidation was followed by a sizable decline, and the current one (marked with green), is relatively small. And it’s likely to be followed by a short-term rally, just like the September correction was. On top of that, as you can see on the below chart, the current setup for the USD Index and gold mirrors what we witnessed in early August. Following its sharp summertime rally, the USD Index moved close to its 50-day moving average without reaching it. And after buyers stepped in, the USD Index resumed its uptrend and made a new 2021 high. Moreover, with a similar pattern and a similar reading on the USD Index’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) present today, the greenback’s outlook remains robust. I marked both cases with red, vertical, dashed lines below. More importantly, though gold, silver, and mining stocks’ upswings concluded once the USD Index bottomed close to its 50-day moving average in August and sharp drawdowns followed. Moreover, while gold, silver, and mining stocks’ recent rallies were likely underwritten by expectations of a weaker USD Index (it did fail to move to new highs, right?) , technical (as described above and below) and fundamental realities contrast this thesis. As a result, the 2021 theme of ‘USD Index up, PMs down’ will likely resume over the medium term. Please see below: Equally bullish for the greenback, the Euro Index remains overvalued and should suffer a material drawdown over the medium term. For example, the index’s previous lows, its 50-day moving average, and its declining resistance line combined to create major resistance and the Euro Index is now retesting its 2021 lows. As a result, the next temporary stop could be ~1.1500 (the March 2020 highs, then likely lower). For context, the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, and that’s why the euro’s behavior is so important. Please see below: Adding to our confidence (don’t get me wrong, there are no certainties in any market; it’s just that the bullish narrative for the USDX is even more bullish in my view), the USD Index often sizzles in the summer sun and major USDX rallies often start during the middle of the year. Summertime spikes have been mainstays on the USD Index’s historical record and in 2004, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014 and 2018 a retest of the lows (or close to them) occurred before the USD Index began its upward flights (which is exactly what’s happened this time around). Furthermore, profound rallies (marked by the red vertical dashed lines below) followed in 2008, 2011 and 2014. With the current situation mirroring the latter, a small consolidation on the long-term chart is exactly what occurred before the USD Index surged in 2014. Likewise, the USD Index recently bottomed near its 50-week moving average; an identical development occurred in 2014. More importantly, though, with bottoms in the precious metals market often occurring when gold trades in unison with the USD Index (after ceasing to respond to the USD’s rallies with declines), we’re still far away from that milestone in terms of both price and duration. Moreover, as the journey unfolds, the bullish signals from 2014 have resurfaced once again. For example, the USD Index’s RSI is hovering near a similar level (marked with red ellipses), and back then, a corrective downswing also occurred at the previous highs. More importantly, though, the short-term weakness was followed by a profound rally in 2014, and many technical and fundamental indicators signal that another reenactment could be forthcoming. Please see below: Just as the USD Index took a breather before its massive rally in 2014, it seems that we saw the same recently. This means that predicting higher gold prices (or the ones of silver) here is likely not a good idea. Continuing the theme, the eye in the sky doesn’t lie. And with the USDX’s long-term breakout clearly visible, the wind still remains at the dollar’s back. Please see below: The bottom line? With my initial 2021 target of 94.5 already hit, the ~98 target is likely to be reached over the medium term, and the USDX will likely exceed 100 at some point over the medium or long term. Keep in mind though: we’re not bullish on the greenback because of the U.S.’ absolute outperformance. It’s because the region is fundamentally outperforming the Eurozone, the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, and the relative performance is what really matters. In conclusion, the USD Index remains in the driver’s seat and new highs should materialize over the medium term. And while gold, silver and mining stocks have rode the S&P 500 higher recently, history has been unkind when the precious metals ignore technical and fundamental realities. Moreover, with gold, silver, and mining stocks’ strong negative correlations with the U.S. dollar standing the test of time, it’s likely only a matter of time before investors realize this as well. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Bitcoin rockets from best support at 60500/60000

Bitcoin rockets from best support at 60500/60000

Jason Sen Jason Sen 09.11.2021 08:27
Bitcoin rockets from best support at 60500/60000 & through he all time high at 66500/67000 as predicted, initially targeting 69500/70000 Ripple through 6 month trend line resistance at 12300/400 for a buy signal. Ethereum longs at best support at 4380/4340 work on the run to the next target of 4800.Today's Analysis Bitcoin longs from anywhere above 60000 this trade worked perfectly as we beat 66500/67000 as expected initially targeting 69500/70000. We should struggle so do not be surprised to see some profit taking. However a break above 70000 is a good buy signal & can take us as far as 70000/78000. Downside is expected to be limited with first support at 67000/66500. Longs need stops below 66000. Ripple break above 12400 is an important medium term buy signal initially targeting 12800/850 & 13050. Support at 12300/12200. Best support at 11800/11700. Longs need stops below 11600. Ethereum longs at best support at 4380/4340 worked on the bounce back above 4475/55 to the targets of 4600/50 & 4800 & hopefully as far as 4950/5000 this week. Downside is expected to be limited with minor support at 4650/40. Best support at 4520/4480. Longs need stops below 4430. Emini S&P December hitting the targets as far as 4696/99 before reversing from 4712 & we are closing in on first support at 4675/70 this morning. Nasdaq December seeing a little profit taking from our 16420/440 target but downside should be limited in the bull trend with no sell signal yet, despite overbought conditions. Emini Dow Jones December we wrote: hit the next target of 36000/100 & if we continue higher in the bull trend look for 36250/280. Target hit with a new all time high at 36375. Today's Analysis. Emini S&P meets first support at 4675/70. Longs need stops below 4665 but then expect strong support at 4650/45. Try longs with stops below 4635. Unlikely but further losses meet an excellent buying opportunity at 4615/05. Longs need stops below 4595. The only resistance is at 4710/15. You would have to brave or crazy to sell short in this endless bull market! A break above 4720 targets 4735/40 then 4760. Nasdaq December straight to the next target of 16420/440 with a new all time high only 8 ticks above!! Eventually we can reach 16700, perhaps this week. Then we look for 16850. First support at 16260/240 likely to be tested this morning, but below here meets second support at 16140/120. Unlikely but further losses meet a buying opportunity at 15970/920. Longs need stops below 15890. Emini Dow Jones December new all time high at 36375 but watch resistance at 36410/440. I certainly do not recommend a short but we could pause here. If we continue higher look for 36490/500 & 36750/800. First support at 36100/35950. Best support at 35700/650. Longs need stops below 35550. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
The uncertain certainty of bitcoin

The uncertain certainty of bitcoin

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 09.11.2021 10:24
Some might argue that it is best to sit on one’s hands and wait for a time when bitcoin prices are suppressed, and they have a point with the possibility of a market crash. And then again, they might have said that already when bitcoin was still trading at US$3,000 (we do not find it likely that bitcoin will ever retrace to those levels again.). Where are the uncertainties in bitcoins certainty? When you dissect a complex mechanism, you will always find a problem. It is like going to the bakery. It would be foolish to expect to get anything else but bread. Maybe it is better to look at a glass half full, meaning why not look at why bitcoin could be a certainty? BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, every buyer is a winner if he didn’t sell: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 9th, 2021. The monthly chart above certainly shows that whoever bought in the past has made a profit by now. Yet, we know “hodling” isn’t an easy thing. Personal risk appetite determines the number of bitcoin that can be held throughout these boom and bust cycles. We solved this dilemma through our quad exit strategy. And we teach low-risk position size building in our free telegram channel. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, new all-time highs: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Weekly chart as of November 9th, 2021. Now, moving forward to real-time, we can make out a similar bullish picture on the weekly chart after our glimpse in the past. Recent events provide data that substantiates bitcoin’s long-term certainty. A look at the last two weeks of October (marked in white) reveals a very brief battle with a minimal retracement level at the double top of all-time highs. Bears barely get a foot in the door, where typically bitcoin experiences significant retracements. To us, a clear sign that the rush is on. Big player money is now rushing to accumulate the necessary size they aim to hold on their books for the long term. Consequently, reducing volatility, one of the most feared aspects of bitcoin, which in times to come will attract more market players to this trading vehicle.   BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, six figures in 2022: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 9th, 2021. A look into the future from a monthly chart perspective is confidence building as well. With new all-time high prices printing at the time of publication of this chart book, our bet is still on bitcoin with a 63% over 47% chance that prices will advance from here rather than retracing to a substantially lower price level. So far, bitcoin has done nothing else but eradicate the uncertainties placed in its way. The most stubborn doubter would likely be happy if they had picked up a few coins when they traded at a dollar. What provides confidence for our forecast is the confirmation that bitcoin price retracements are now more modest. This lets us assume that the number of professional traders participating in this market has increased. In the monthly chart above, you can make out that closing prices of the month’s May, June, and July this year closed above the 50% Fibonacci retracement levels. A conservative retracement for bitcoins historical standards. We project for the near term that bitcoin will reach six-figure prices in mid-February next year. The uncertain certainty of bitcoin: From the anticipatory perspective, it seems evident that holding bitcoin is a prudent move with a look into the future. A hedge is needed once the risk is apparent to all, and the house of cards will tumble.  From a real-time perspective, we also find bitcoin to be a “must-own.” The charts above showed the strength with which bitcoin is aching to claim its turf, and it is never good to wait till “fear of missing out” kicks in, and low-risk entry opportunities become scarce.  And from a reactionary perspective, a look in the past, it is evident that anybody would like a piece of the action where bitcoin has nothing but a stunning history of unheard percentage moves and made it from eight cents to US$ 67,000 in just a dozen years.  There are always uncertainties in speculative ventures, but bitcoin itself is a certainty, not to be rationalized away for the years to come. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|November 9th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, bitcoin consolidation, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Bitcoin is climbing undeterred higher

Bitcoin is climbing undeterred higher

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 02.11.2021 11:02
Bitcoin is volatile and nosedives in some of these attacks. A historical look back illustrates how bitcoin each time is climbing higher right after: 2009 traded for free (zero value) between enthusiasts 2010 worth US$0.08 2011 from US$1 up to US$32 back down to US$2 2012 from US$4.80 up to US$13.20 2013 from US$13.40 up to US$1,156 and down to US$760 2014 – 2016 down to US$315 2017 up to US$20,089 2018 down to US$3,122 2019 up to US$13,880 2020 up to US$34,800 2021 up to US$67,016 And these last three years, bitcoin has been climbing higher, undeterred. BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, bitcoin, a true winner: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 2nd, 2021. The monthly chart above illustrates bitcoin’s winning characteristics. We can see harmonious swings. Retracements are substantial, but bitcoin shows a persistent tendency to outperform previous all-time highs. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, explosive recent history: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Weekly chart as of November 2nd, 2021. The weekly chart points towards more explosive moves recently. After a breakout of a multi-year range, we can see that bitcoin has started to move substantially due to more widespread adoption. Swing behavior is getting more harmonious. At the moment, we are in the midst of a battle between bears and bulls at a double top formation. Consequently, the following days to weeks will show who will come out ahead. The fact that bulls cling to their winnings for this long gives price in this pat situation a slight edge for the bullish corner.   BTC in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, stepping away from the noise: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Daily chart as of November 2nd, 2021. The daily chart can be pretty volatile. These smaller time frames are advised only to be traded if you are a professional. This applies particularly to struggle zones like the one we are currently in, for instance. Intraday swings can get substantial. In addition, once these battles between bears and bulls resolve, daily percentage moves can be staggering. Luckily, one doesn’t need to fear such challenging trading environments. To clarify, step up to larger time frames and reduce trade frequency and position size. Accept the risk based on adequate position size to your individual psychology and risk appetite. Consequently, buying for the long term will become much easier. It is essential as such to be familiar with a trading object’s typical behavior and, in bitcoins case, not to forget its ability to shine after a major setback. Bitcoin is climbing undeterred higher: Overall, bitcoins’ technical personality makes it an easy choice for one’s wealth preservation portfolio. Especially when options for wealth preservation investments are limited! This year’s strength towards gold and silver price performance had us increase bitcoins percentage allocation within the long-term portfolio. It fulfills two valuable functions to firmly find its place under historically much longer established counterparts. Scarcity for stability, and a more considerable performance potential necessary to protect against inflation. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.
Gold, Silver, and Miners Just Can’t Jump

Gold, Silver, and Miners Just Can’t Jump

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 03.11.2021 15:17
Let’s face it, the metals are not having an easy time breaking out. Short-term rallies end up going nowhere and bearish signs are still in abundance. Yesterday’s session was once again quite informative, and so is today’s pre-market trading. In yesterday’s analysis, I emphasized the importance of the relative weakness that we just saw in mining stocks, so let’s start with taking a look at what mining stocks did yesterday. At first glance, yesterday’s performance might look like a bullish reversal, but zooming in clarifies that something else was actually in the works. Let’s take a look at the GDXJ 1-hour candlestick chart for details. Yesterday’s “reversal” was actually a breakdown below the previous (mid-October) intraday lows along with the verification thereof. The GDXJ moved below the above-mentioned lows and – while it moved back up – it ended the session below them. This is a bearish type of session. Also, if you were wondering about the high volume in the final hour of trading – that’s relatively normal as that’s when bigger trades tend to take place. And while mining stocks were busy verifying the breakdown, gold tried to break above its declining, red resistance line, and verify that breakout. While yesterday’s session didn’t bring much lower gold prices (and the invalidation), today’s pre-market trading makes it clear that the attempt to break higher failed. Just like I had indicated yesterday. This time the rising short-term support line is not there to prevent further declines as the breakdown below it was also confirmed. What does it mean? It means that gold is likely to fall, and quite likely it’s going to fall hard. Besides, silver price is after a major short-term breakdown, too. After a powerful short-term rally, silver had reversed, and now it broke below its rising support line. That’s yet another bearish indication. Please note that at first silver was reluctant to decline while mining stocks moved decisively lower, which was normal during the early part of a given decline. Silver did some catching-up action yesterday, but since miners are not showing strength, I’d say that we’re getting to the regular part of a short-term move, not close to its end. And the move lower is likely to continue, just as the move higher is likely to continue in case of the USD Index. The USDX is after a verification of the breakout to new 2021 highs and after an about monthly consolidation above them. This is a perfect starting point for a major upswing, and we’re likely to see one soon. All in all, while the outlook for the precious metals sector is very bullish for the following years, it’s very bearish for the following weeks. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Great Profitable Runs

Great Profitable Runs

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 09.11.2021 15:04
S&P 500 pause goes on, and bonds support more of it to come. Tech keeps thus far the high ground gained, but value is showing signs of very short-term weakness – and yields haven‘t retreated yesterday really. The correct view of the stock market action is one of microrotations unfolding in a weakening environment – one increasingly fraught with downside risks. To be clear, I‘m not looking for a sizable correction, but a very modest one both in time and price. It‘s a question of time, and I think it would be driven by tech weakness as the sector has reached lofty levels. It‘ll go higher over time still, but this is the time for value and smallcaps in the medium term.The dollar though isn‘t putting much pressure on stock, commodity or precious metals prices at the moment – such were my yesterday‘s words:(…) when the dollar starts rolling over to the downside (I‘m looking at the early Dec debt ceiling drama to trigger it off), emerging markets would love that. And commodities with precious metals too, of course – sensing the upcoming greenback weakness has been part and parcel of the gold and silver resilience of late. Precious metals are only getting started, but the greatest fireworks would come early spring 2022 when the Fed‘s failure to act on inflation becomes broadly acknowledged.For now, they‘re still getting away with the transitory talking points, and chalking it down to supply chain issues. As if these could solve the balance sheet expansion or fresh (most probably again short-dated) Treasuries issuance (come Dec) – the Fed is also way behind other central banks in raising rates. Canada, Mexico and many others have already moved while UK and Australia are signalling readiness – the U.S. central bank is joined by ECB in hesitating.And that‘s what precious metals would be increasingly sniffing out. Commodities are joining in the post-taper celebrations, and my prior Tuesday‘s market assessments are coming to fruition one by one. Oil is swinging higher and hasn‘t topped, copper is coming back to life, and cryptos aren‘t in a waiting mood either.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 pause is here, and all that‘s missing, is emboldened bears. They may or may not arrive given that VIX keeps looking lazy these days – either way, the risks to the downside are persisting for a couple of days at least still.Credit MarketsHYG strength evaporated, but it‘s on a short-term basis only. The broader credit market weakness would get reversed, but it‘s my view that quality debt instruments would be lagging.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver continue reversing the pre-taper weakness – the upswing goes on, but is likely to temporarily pause as the miners‘ daily weakness foretells. Still, I‘m looking for more gains with every dip being bought.Crude OilCrude oil bulls continue having the upper hand, no matter the relative momentary stumble in maintaining gains – the energy sector hasn‘t peaked by a long shot.CopperCopper is participating in the commodities upswing – not too hot, not too cold. Just right, and it‘s a question of time when the red metal would start visibly outperforming the CRB Index again.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum consolidation has indeed come to an end, and both leading (by volume traded) cryptos are primed for further gains. SummaryS&P 500 breather remains a question of time, but shouldn‘t reach far on the downside – the bears are having an opportunity to strike as credit markets have weakened, and there isn‘t enough short-term will in tech to go higher still. The very short-term picture in stocks is mixed, but downside risks are growing. The dollar is already weakening, much to the liking of commodities and precious metals – there is still enough liquidity in the markets as any taper can be easily offset by withdrawing repo money sitting on the Fed‘s balance sheet.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
How Strange! Gold Rises on Strong Payrolls!

How Strange! Gold Rises on Strong Payrolls!

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 09.11.2021 15:20
US economy added 531,000 jobs in October, surpassing expectations. Gold reacted… in a bullish way, and jumped above $1,800! The October nonfarm payrolls came surprisingly strong. As the chart below shows, the US labor market added 531,000 jobs last month, much above the expectations (MarketWatch’s analysts forecasted 450,000 added jobs). So, it’s a nice change from the last two disappointing reports. What’s more, the August and September numbers were significantly revised up – by 235,000 combined. Let’s keep in mind that we also have the additions of 1,091,000 in July and 366,000 in August (after an upward revision). Additionally, the unemployment rate declined from 4.8% to 4.6%, as the chart above shows. It’s a positive surprise, as economists expected a drop to 4.7%. In absolute terms, the number of unemployed people fell by 255,000 - to 7.4 million. It’s a much lower level compared to the recessionary peak (23.1 million), however, it’s still significantly higher than before the pandemic (5.7 million and the unemployment rate of 3.5%). Implications for Gold What does the recent employment report imply for the precious market? Well, gold surprised observers and rallied on Friday despite strong nonfarm payrolls. As the chart below shows, the London P.M. Fix surpassed the key level of $1,800. To show gold’s reaction more clearly, let’s take a look at the chart below, which shows that the price of gold futures initially declined after the October Employment Situation Report release. Only after a while, it rebounded and rallied to about $1,820. It’s a surprising behavior, as gold usually reacted negatively to strong economic data. Until now, gold liked weak employment reports as they increased the chances of a dovish Fed that would continue its easy monetary policy. Now, something has changed. But what? Well, some analysts would say that nothing has changed at all. Instead, they would tell us that the latest employment report is not as strong as it seems. In particular, the labor force participation rate was unmoved at 61.6% in October and has remained within a narrow range of 61.4% to 61.7% since June 2020, as the chart below shows. The lack of any improvement in the labor force participation rate could be interpreted as a lack of full employment and used by the Fed as an excuse to leave interest rates unchanged for a long time. I’m not convinced by this explanation. “Full employment” does not mean that all people are working, but all people who want to work are working. And, as the chart above shows, the fact that after the Great Recession the labor participation rate didn’t move back to the pre-crisis level didn’t prevent the Fed from hiking interest rates in 2015-2019. There is also another possibility. It might be the case that investors are now focusing on inflation. The employment report showed that the average hourly earnings have increased by 4.9% over the past twelve months, raising some concerns about wage inflation and general price pressure in the economy. Remember: context is crucial. If the new narrative is more about high inflation, good news may be positive for gold if they also indicate strong inflationary pressure. Although I like this explanation, it’s not free from shortcomings. You see, stronger inflation concerns should increase inflation premium and bond yields. However, the opposite is true: the real interest rates declined last week (see the chart below), enabling gold to catch its breath. After all, the markets are expecting a more dovish Fed than before the announcement of tapering. This is a fundamentally positive development for the gold market. Having said that, it’s too early to declare the start of the breakout. If inflation stays high, the US central bank could have no choice but to hike interest rates next year. Also, although the recent jump despite strong payrolls is encouraging, gold has yet to prove that it can stay above $1,800. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
EURUSD well established so we keep trading them until prices breakout of the range.

EURUSD well established so we keep trading them until prices breakout of the range.

Jason Sen Jason Sen 10.11.2021 14:24
EURUSD levels are well established so we keep trading them until prices breakout of the range. We have shorts at first resistance at 1.1600/10 from yesterday USDCAD we have longs at 1.2440/20 targeting strong resistance at 1.2510/30. GBPCAD beat strong resistance at 1.6860/70 but meets a selling opportunity at 1.6930/50 with stops above 1.6970. Update daily at 06:30 GMT Today's Analysis. EURUSD strong resistance at 1.1600/10. Shorts need stops above 1.1630. A break higher can target strong resistance at 1.1695/1.1705. Exit longs & try shorts with stops above 1.1720. A break higher is a buy signal targeting 1.1765/70 & 1.1800/10. Shorts at 1.1600/10 target 1.1570/60 (hit), perhaps as far as first support at the October low at 1.1530/20. A break below 1.1510 is a sell signal initially targeting 1.1490 & although this could hold initially (a low for the day certainly possible but longs are risky) we eventually expected to target 1.1430/20. USDCAD longs at 1.2440/20 target strong resistance at 1.2510/30. Shorts need stops above 1.2550. First support at 1.2440/20 but longs need stops below 1.2410. A break below here targets 1.2370/65 perhaps as far as support at 1.2300/1.2280. Longs here need stops below 1.2270. A break lower is a sell signal. GBPCAD selling opportunity at 1.6930/50 with stops above 1.6970. A break higher however targets 1.7050/70. Shorts at 1.6930/50 target 1.6860, perhaps as far as 1.6810. A low for the day is possible here but further losses are likely to retest last week's low at 1.6735/25. GBPUSD beat 1.3510/30 to target 1.3570/80 & my selling opportunity at 1.3600/20. Shorts here worked perfectly with a high for the day at 1.3607 & a collapse to my target of 1.3525/15. In fact this was also the low for the day. EURGBP shorts at the 200 day moving average at 8585 work on the slide to second support at 8520/10 for profit taking on any remaining shorts. A low for the day exactly here so longs also worked on the bounce to 8550. GBPNZD shot higher to strong resistance at 1.9050/70 but shorts need stops above 1.9090 (which looks likely today's high as I write). Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis. GBPUSD try shorts again at 1.3600/20 targeting 1.3560, perhaps as far as minor support at 1.3525/15. Below here look for 1.3470/60. A selling opportunity at 1.3600/20. Try shorts with stops above 1.3635. A break higher targets 1.3570/75. EURGBP holding below 8550 retests support at 8520/10. Try longs again with stops below 8500. A break lower targets 8475. Longs at 520/10 target 8550 before first resistance at the 200 day moving average at 8585/95. A break above 8600 is a buy signal for this week. GBPNZD shorts at strong resistance at 1.9050/70 target 1.9895, perhaps as far as 1.8950. A break above 1.9090 targets 1.9170/80. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Cuts Through Resistance

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Cuts Through Resistance

John Benjamin John Benjamin 11.11.2021 09:26
USDJPY attempts a bullish reversalThe US dollar broke higher after October’s CPI exceeded expectations.On the daily chart, the RSI has dropped back into the neutrality area. The greenback has secured bids around the 30-day moving average. An oversold RSI on the hourly chart attracted a ‘buying-the-dips’ crowd at 112.70.The latest surge above the psychological level of 114.00 has prompted sellers to cover their bets, paving the way for a bullish reversal above 114.25. Before that, an overbought RSI may lead to a pullback towards 113.05.XAUUSD breaks resistanceRising US CPI boosts the demand for gold as an inflation hedge.After being unable to clear the daily chart’s triple top at 1833 over the course of the summer, the precious metal has cut through the resistance like a hot knife through butter. High volatility suggests that sellers were quick to bail out.As momentum traders jump in, the bullish breakout would lead to an extended rally towards 1900. An overbought RSI may cause a limited pullback. In that case, 1823 at the base of the rally may see strong buying interest.USOIL retreats from resistanceWTI crude edged lower after the EIA reported a slight rise in US inventories. The price’s swift recovery above the sell-off point at 83.00 is an indication that sentiment remains overall optimistic.However, the previous peak and psychological level of 85.00 seems like a tough hurdle to overcome for now. An overbought RSI has triggered a temporary pullback with a break below 81.90. In turn, this is deepening the correction towards 79.30.Trend followers may see the limited retracement as an opportunity to stake in.
Netflix Stock (NFLX) Ahead Of Important Data, XAUUSD Chart's Reduced Amplitudes - Swissquote's MarketTalk

Inflation to the Moon - Gold Wears a Space Suit!

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 11.11.2021 16:06
  Inflation rears its ugly head, surging at the fastest pace since 1990. The yellow metal has finally reacted as befits an inflation hedge: went up. Do you know what ambivalence is? It is a state of having two opposing feelings at the same time –this is exactly how I feel now. Why? Well, the latest BLS report on inflation shows that consumer inflation surged in October, which is something I hate because it lowers the purchasing power of money, deteriorating the financial situation of most people, especially the poorest and the least educated who don’t know how to protect against rising prices. On the other hand, I feel satisfaction, as it turned out that I was right in claiming that high inflation would be more persistent than the pundits claimed. After the September report on inflation, I wrote: “I’m afraid that consumer inflation could increase even further in the near future”. Sieron vs. Powell: 1:0! Indeed, the CPI rose 0.9% last month after rising 0.4% in September. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, accelerated to 0.6% in October from 0.1% in the preceding month. And, as the chart below shows, the overall CPI annual rate accelerated from 5.4% in September to 6.2% in October, while the core CPI annual rate jumped from 4% to 4.6%. This surge (and a new peak) is a final blow to the Fed’s fairy tale about transitory inflation. As one can see in the chart above, the CPI rate has stayed above the Fed’s target since March 2021, and it won’t decline to 2% anytime soon. This contradicts all definitions of transitoriness I know. What’s more, the October surge in inflation was not only above the expectations – it was also the biggest jump since November 1990, as the chart below shows. Unfortunately for Americans, it might not be the last word of inflation. This is because over 80% of CPI subcomponents were above the Fed’s target of 2%, which clearly indicates that high inflation is not caused merely by the reopening of the economy but also by the broad-based factors such as the surge in the money supply.   Implications for Gold Ladies and gentlemen, gold finally reacted to surging inflation! As the chart below shows, the price of gold (Comex futures) spiked from below $1,830 to above $1,860 after the BLS report on CPI. Why did gold finally notice inflation and react as a true inflation hedge? Well, it seems that the narrative changed. Until recently, investors believed the Fed that inflation would be transitory. Reality, however, has disproved this story. Another factor I would like to mention is the FOMC’s recent announcement of tapering of its quantitative easing. That event removed some downward pressure from the gold market. By the way, this is something I also correctly predicted in the Fundamental Gold Report that commented on September inflation report: “it seems that until the Fed tapers its quantitative easing, gold will remain under downward pressure. Nonetheless, when it finally happens, better times may come for gold.” Indeed, yesterday’s rally suggests that gold recalled its function as a hedge against inflation. Until today, I was cautious in announcing the breakout in the gold market, as the yellow metal jumped above $1,800 only recently. However, the fact that gold managed not only to stay above $1,800 but also to continue its march upward (in tandem with the US dollar!) suggests that there is bullish momentum right now. Having said that, investors should remember about the threat of a more hawkish Fed. Higher inflation could support the monetary hawks within the FOMC and prompt the US central bank to raise interest rates sooner rather than later. The prospects of a tightening cycle could weigh on gold. However, as long as investors focus stronger on inflation than on tightening of monetary policy, and as long as the real interest rates decrease, or at do not increase, gold can go up. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
HK Rallies and PBOC Cuts, US Stocks Stabilize

Focus on the Real Gains

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 11.11.2021 15:51
S&P 500 declined, and not enough buyers arrived in my view. Still, we‘re likely to see a brief pause in selling, and that‘s giving the bulls a chance. Credit markets were a bit too beaten down by the troubled 30-year Treasury auction and Evergrande moving into the spotlight somewhat again. VIX managed another upswing, and doesn‘t point to the S&P 500 having gotten to an excessively bearish positioning just yet. I think some treading the water before stocks make up their mind, is most likely next. The downswing doesn‘t appear to be totally over, but we have arguably seen the greater part of it already. Tech isn‘t yet stabilized, but the increasing volume spells a pause in selling. I‘m still looking for clues to the bond markets. And it‘s clear that not even higher rates can sink the precious metals run – neither the late day rush to the dollar had that power. Miners continue behaving, and their daily black candle doesn‘t scare me – the realization of inflation not having peaked, and being as stubborn as I had been pounding the table since eternity, is working its magic: (…) inflation expectations are moving higher – the more you shorten the maturity, the higher they go, let alone RINF, their key ETF. Markets will be proven very wrong about the transitory inflation complacency – inflation rates aren‘t going to decline if you just leave them alone. And taper coupled with rate hikes hesitancy won‘t do the trick either. S&P 500 is still primed to go higher – the only question is the shape of the current consolidation. Liquidity is still ample, the banking sector is strong, and the Russell 2000 isn‘t really retreating. Precious metals are consolidating – it‘s almost a pre-CPI ritual, but under the surface, the pressure to go higher keeps building. I‘m looking for a strong Dec in gold and silver, with unyielding oil and copper gradually waking up. Cryptos aren‘t taking prisoners either. Crude oil is well bid in the $78 till $80 zone, and would overcome $85 – we aren‘t looking at a reversal, but at temporary upside rejection. Likewise copper would kick in with vengeance, and the shallow crypto consolidations are barely worth mentioning at all. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 decline continues, and the very short-term picture favors a little consolidation – the selling might not be over just yet. Credit Markets HYG, LQD and TLT – weakness anywhere you look, without tangible signs of stabilization, which makes any S&P 500 upswings a doubtful proposition. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver look to be just getting started – the growing money flows aren‘t sufficient to push prices lower. Miners are pulling ahead, and the ever more negative real rates coupled with surging inflation fears (and Fed policy mistake recognition) are powering it all. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls would have to step in around the $80 level again, and it seems they wouldn‘t find it too hard to do. Yesterday‘s downswing looks like a daily setback only. Copper Copper downswing was again bought, and I‘m not looking for the bears to make much further progress as commodities appear ready to turn up again regardless of temporary dollar strength. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are again briefly consolidating, and the bulls haven‘t really spoken their last word. It‘s a nice base building before another upleg. Summary S&P 500 is likely pausing for a moment here, and any further pullback isn‘t likely to reach far on the downside. The late day selloff in real assets was merely a brief, news-driven correction that would be reversed before too long, and precious metals are showing the way as inflation is moving back into the spotlight, and the talk about Fed‘s policy mistake is growing louder. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Red Hot and Running

Red Hot and Running

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 12.11.2021 15:44
S&P 500 really went through the brief pause in selling, but credit markets haven‘t stopped really. Their weakness continues, but is hitting value a tad harder than tech. Together with VIX turning south, that‘s one more sign why the bulls are slowly becoming the increasingly more favored side. Hold your horses though, I‘m talking about a very short-term outlook – this correction doesn‘t appear to be over just yet (the second half of Nov is usually weakner seasonally): (…) some treading the water before stocks make up their mind, is most likely next. The downswing doesn‘t appear to be totally over, but we have arguably seen the greater part of it already. … I‘m still looking for clues to the bond markets. There, it had been a one-way ride. TLT though is having trouble declining further, and that means a brief upswing carrying over into stocks, is likely. Primarily tech would benefit, and the ever more negative real rates would put a floor beneath the feverish precious metals run. Make no mistake though, the tide in gold and silver has turned, and inflation expectations aren‘t as tame anymore. In this light, there‘s no point in sweating the commodities retracement of late. True, the rising dollar is taking some steam out of the CRB superbull, but that‘s only temporary – I‘m looking for the greenback to reverse to the downside once the debt ceiling drama reappears in the beginning of Dec. Then, the Treasury would also have to start issuing more (short-term) debt, which would put a damper on any upswing attempts. Meanwhile, inflation would keep at least as hot as it‘sx been recently, and the Fed policy mistake in letting the fire burn unattended, would be more broadly acknowledged. What a profitable constellation for precious metals, real and crypto assets! Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 is bidding its time – the shallow very short-term consolidation continues, with the bears slowly running out of time (for today). Credit Markets HYG, LQD and TLT – weakness anywhere you look continues, but LQD is hinting at a possible stabilization next. Unless that‘s more broadly followed in bonds, any S&P 500 upswing would remain a doubtful proposition. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver were indeed just getting started – a relatively brief pause shouldn‘t be surprising. Any dips though remain to be bought. All in all, PMs are firing on all cylinders currently. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls keep defending the $80 level, with $78 serving as the next stop if need be. The consolidation starting late Oct would though resolve to the upside in my view – it‘s just a question of shortening time. Copper Copper participated in the commodities upswing – not too enthusiastically, not too weakly. The volume seems just right for base building before another red metal‘s move higher. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are still consolidating, and the relatively tight price range keeps favoring the bulls. Summary S&P 500 is looking at a mildly positive day today, but the correction isn‘t probably over just yet. With most of the downside already in, I‘m looking for bullish spirits to very gradually return. Precious metals will be the star performers for the many days to come, followed by copper and then oil. Crypto better days are also lyiing ahead. All in all, inflation trades will keep doing better and better. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
S&P 500: Inflation Fears May Push Stock Prices Lower

S&P 500: Inflation Fears May Push Stock Prices Lower

Paul Rejczak Paul Rejczak 10.11.2021 15:55
  Stocks’ short-term rally came to an end this week and the S&P 500 index entered a consolidation along the 4,700 level. Is this a topping pattern? The S&P 500 index lost 0.35% yesterday, as it fell below the 4,700 price mark following two-day-long consolidation along the Friday’s record high of 4,718.50. The recent rally was not broad-based and it was driven by a handful of tech stocks like MSFT, NVDA, TSLA. The market seems overbought in the short-term and most likely it’s trading within a topping pattern. Today we may see another consolidation or a profit taking action following worse than expected inflation data release (the CPI monthly number came at +0.9% vs. the expected +0.6%). The nearest important support level is at 4,650-4,675 and the next support level is at 4,600. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,700-4,720. The S&P 500 broke below its steep short-term upward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq Lost 0.7% on Tuesday Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index broke above the 16,000 level recently and it was trading at the new record high. The market accelerated parabolically above its short-term upward trend line. But yesterday it lost 0.7% and closed below that trend line. The resistance level remains at 16,400, and the short-term support level is at 16,000, among others, as we can see on the daily chart: Apple’s Further Consolidation and Microsoft’s Potential Topping Pattern Let’s take a look at the two biggest stocks in the S&P 500 index, AAPL and MSFT. Apple continues to trade within a consolidation along the $150 level and it is still well below the record highs, and the Microsoft is close to breaking below its over month-long upward trend line. So the tech “megacaps” may be turning lower, as we can see on their daily charts: Conclusion The broad stock market went slightly lower on Tuesday and we may see a downward continuation this morning. The main indices are expected to open 0.2-0.5% lower following worse (higher) than expected consumer inflation number release. It looks like a topping pattern and we may see a downward correction at some point. There may be a profit-taking action following quarterly earnings releases. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 extended its uptrend last week, but since Friday it is trading within a short-term downtrend. But still no positions are justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Seeks Consolidation

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Seeks Consolidation

John Benjamin John Benjamin 15.11.2021 08:53
USDJPY hits temporary resistance The Japanese yen pulled back after a larger-than-expected GDP contraction in Q3. The US dollar is looking to hold onto its gains after a rally above 114.00. Sentiment has recovered and a surge above 114.45 around the October peak would resume the uptrend. However, the current rebound may lack the strength to clear the supply zone right away. An overbought RSI has held the bullish fever back. A breach below 113.70 would lead to a deeper correction towards 112.80, which is a key level to keep the rebound relevant. EURCHF struggles for support The euro bounced higher after the bloc’s industrial production beat expectations in September. The RSI’s oversold situation on the daily chart has attracted bargain hunters’ attention around 1.0530, a demand area from May 2020. Price action had three failed attempts to lift offers at 1.0600, a sign of strong selling pressure to keep the downtrend going. A bullish breakout may trigger a runaway rally as sellers seek to exit a crowded short bet. A bearish one would send the single currency to 1.0490. UK 100 tests support The FTSE 100 edged lower after active job postings in the UK hit a record high. The index came under pressure at the psychological level of 7400. A combination of an overbought RSI and its bearish divergence suggests that the rally was losing momentum. Sentiment remains upbeat and a pullback could be an opportunity to get filled at a better price. Trend followers may be waiting to buy the dip near the first support at 7315. A deeper correction would send the price to 7255 along the 30-day moving average.
Silver, the waiting game

Silver, the waiting game

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 13.11.2021 19:25
Luckily, it is not necessary to time market entry and exit precisely. What is essential is calculating risk itself and that risk to expected returns. In addition, strict management of the trade itself is required. Gold versus Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart, risk versus reward: Gold versus Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 12th, 2021. That being said, instead of getting distracted by a narrative of policymakers who might prolong the inevitable even for years possibly, we focus on the technical aspects that cannot be “rationalized” away and will be unaffected by market influencers. One such fact is the market relationship between silver’s more giant brother gold. The chart above tries to illustrate that gold is trading 10% below its all-time high. On the other hand, silver is trading 50% below its all-time high. This discrepancy makes silver the more desirable play (better risk/reward-ratio). The difference will work like a loaded spring, and once released, silver will outperform gold by a multiple. Gold in US-Dollar, monthly chart, gold leading strongly: Gold in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 13th, 2021. Now that we have found the right vehicle for a wealth preservation insurance play, we are looking for additional factors. Physical acquisition is a clear prosperous choice. It protects against inflation and the risk possibilities inherent to fiat currency, with much historical evidence. That leaves us the question of entry timing. Especially since the physical purchase has a broader spread and a reactionary lag over spot price trading, which is pretty much instant. The chart above clarifies why we see there to be leeway regarding being “right.” It is less critical to pinpoint the absolute lows versus overall participation. Especially since a lack of physical silver availability, which is a possibility, would erase the whole play. The monthly gold chart above is a strong indication that precious metals might be breaking to the upside. With this month’s strength, price pushing against the upper resistance line (white line) of a bullish triangle, silver prices mutually trailing higher is likely. Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart, closely following gold: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 13th, 2021. With these necessary positive edges in play, we can now look at silver itself and look for possible low-risk entry points.The monthly chart shows mutual strength over the previous gold chart. Silver has pushed successfully through the problematic distribution zone around the US$24 price level. It still faces POC (point of control), the highest volume node of our fractal analysis, looming above US$26.03. With this many edges in our favor, we find this an excellent spot to add to physical silver holdings from a long-term holding perspective. Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, spot price play: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 13th, 2021. For a spot price play in the midterm time horizon, we are instead waiting for a possible price bounce of POC. A low-risk entry would be granted once the price retraces back into the US$24 to US$24.50 zone. Reyna Silver encounters multiple high-grade sulphide zones within 54.9 metres of near-source style skarn at Guigui: Silver, the waiting game: In market movement, we see expansion and compression, much like an oscillator. At certain times though, may it be a natural or man-made disaster, we can find ourselves in a stretched or amplified move. These times of abnormality from a time perspective require being well-prepared. Swift, disciplined actions following a clear planned roadmap are advised. An anticipated roadmap strictly followed. It is first a waiting game followed by quick action, both psychologically challenging environments. With physical acquisitions of metals, perfectionism in timing is paralysis. Not necessary to come out ahead. We find silver accumulation at this time to be a prudent measure to protect your wealth. Like buying insurance against an anticipated market turn. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.
XAUUSD (Gold) And XAGUSD (Silver) - A Technical Look

Gold 'n Silver 'n CPI Oh My!

Mark Mead Baillie Mark Mead Baillie 15.11.2021 09:26
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie --- 626th Edition --- Monte-Carlo --- 13 November 2021 (published each Saturday) --- www.deMeadville.com  Let's start with October's Consumer Price Index (CPI) as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: its excitedly-disseminated reading was +0.9% (which annualized is a whopping +10.8%). "Oh, 'tis the worst in 30 years!", they say. "Oh, 'tis the worst in 40 years!", some say. We say: "C'est très exagéré." Why? Because Labor has established this level -- or higher -- three times prior during the 24 years of our maintaining the Economic Barometer: for September 2005 'twas +1.2%; for June 2008 'twas +1.1%; and recently for this past June 'twas (as is now) a like +0.9%. Here's that history: Such exaggerative reporting of this October's +0.9% CPI growth arguably does have merit, for 'tis a very concerning rate of inflation. However as Grandpa Hugh would encourage today's news desks : "Get it first, but FIRST, get it RIGHT!" as opposed to the current-day media mantra of "Fake it FIRST, but fake it as FACT!" 'Course there are other sources that find far greater inflation; however in sticking with Labor's "official" measure, glaringly missing from the subsequent reportage is that -- following those three prior inflationary pops -- came cooling over at least the few ensuing months. 'Tis per the rightmost column of "next" three-month CPI average growth in the below table: Again, ours is not to belittle the seriousness of October's +0.9% CPI rise; rather 'tis to simply show it in the context of historical fact. Please notify a media outlet near you. Seriousness, indeed. For of further practical import (on the assumption that neither do you eat, nor use petroleum-based products), October's Core-CPI growth of +0.6% has already been realized four times just in the prior 15 months. Critical concern there, and justifiably so given the price of Oil has risen from 39.82 at mid-year 2020 to 83.22 at October 2021's settle (+109%). For from the "That's Scary Dept." the cumulative rise in the full CPI across that same 16-month-to-date stint is only +7.3% ... solely by that metric, folks have been gettin' off easy despite higher petrol prices! Fortunately, Gold and Silver may be FINALLY gettin' off their respective butts via their inflation mitigative role. Which obviously points to their having so much farther up to go. Per our opening Gold Scoreboard, price settled out the week yesterday (Friday) at 1868, its second-best single-week performance thus far this year on both a points (+47.7) and percentage (+2.6%) basis. Thus comparatively, 'tis a fine leap forward for Gold. However as you ad nausea already know, even in accounting for its supply increase, Gold by StateSide M2 currency debasement "ought" today be 3986. As well is the ever-annoying fact of Gold first hitting the present 1868 level a decade ago on 19 August 2011 when the money supply was just 44% of what 'tis today, ($9.457 trillion vs. $21.343 trillion). "Got Gold?" And as for Sweet Sister Silver, 'twas her third best weekly performance year-to-date, albeit settling yesterday at 25.41 is a price first achieved 11 years ago on 04 November 2010. "Got Silver?" (Oh and from the "Gold Plays No Currency Favourites Dept." the Dollar recorded its fifth best up week of the year. "Got Bucks?" We'd rather Swiss Francs). Moreover, from our always revered "The Trend is Your Friend Dept." as we saw a week ago, Gold's weekly parabolic trend -- after an intolerably lengthy stint as Short with little net price decline -- did flip to Long. And as is the rule rather than the exception, price this past week continued higher. Which begs your question: "How much does price rise when this happens, mmb?" Bang on cue there, Squire. And the answer is: across the 43 prior Long weekly parabolic trends since 2001, the median increase in the price of Gold is +8.3%. Thus by that number, from Gold's trend flip price back at 1820, an +8.3% increase this time 'round would bring us to 1971. Modest perhaps by valuation expectations, but a start. Too, some of you may recall this sentence from our 02 October missive wherein we nixed our year's forecast high of 2401: "...The more likely scenario shall well be Gold just sloshing around into year-end, trading during Q4 between 1668-1849..." Fab to already be wrong there! For here are the weekly bars and parabolic trends from this time a year ago-to-date: Now in the midst of all this inflation trepidation came Dow Jones Newswires this past week with "The Economic Rebound From Covid-19 Was Easy. Now Comes the Hard Part." Makes sense given everything having been shutdown last year. But: how bona fide actually is "Rebound"? Let's look at corporate earnings, (now yer not gonna get this anywhere else, so pay attention): with but a week to run in Q3 Earnings Season, most of the S&P 500 constituents that report within this calendar timeframe have so done, and with fairly admirable results: 80% bettered their bottom lines, (or as we said a week ago "better have bettered" given the economic shutdown of last year). Yet here's the dirty little secret: many mid-tier and smaller companies have also reported, by our count 1,368 of 'em. And of that bunch, we found just 56% of them did better. That is a Big Red Flag given mid-to-small businesses drive the American economy. We doubt your money manager knows that number. In addition to the past week's inflation reports, lost in the shuffle were the Econ Baro metrics showing September's Wholesale Inventories as backing up, whilst November's University of Michigan Sentiment Survey fell to a 10-year low, the 66.8 level not seen since November 2011. 'Course the S&P loving bad news, its Index roared upward to finish the week at 4683, a mere 36 points below its all-time high. Together with the Baro, here's the year-over year picture: Now to some impressive precious metals' technicals via our two-panel graphic of Gold's daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and those for Silver on the right. "Impressive" as when the falling baby blue dots of trend consistency reverse course back up without having dropped to mid-chart, the buyers are clearly in charge: As for the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold (below left) and Silver (below right), life is good at the top: Good as well is Gold's buoyant positioning within its stack: The Gold StackGold's Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening "Scoreboard"): 3986Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High: 2089 (07 August 2020)Gold’s All-Time Closing High: 2075 (06 August 2020)2021's High: 1963 (06 January)The Gateway to 2000: 1900+10-Session directional range: up to 1871 (from 1759) = +112 points or +6.4%Trading Resistance: none per the ProfileGold Currently: 1868, (expected daily trading range ["EDTR"]: 25 points)Trading Support: Profile notables are 1864 / 1827 / 1793The 300-Day Moving Average: 1822 and falling10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet: 1816The Final Frontier: 1800-1900The Northern Front: 1800-1750On Maneuvers: 1750-1579The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Short: 16862021's Low: 1673 (08 March) The Floor: 1579-1466Le Sous-sol: Sub-1466The Support Shelf: 1454-1434Base Camp: 1377The 1360s Double-Top: 1369 in Apr '18 preceded by 1362 in Sep '17Neverland: The Whiny 1290sThe Box: 1280-1240 Next week brings 14 metrics into the Econ Baro; consensus expectations look for it to turn higher. To be sure, turning higher have been Gold and Silver as inflation their prices stir; and yet their levels now 10 years on are the same as they were; thus their doubling from here can well be a blur! Cheers! ...m... www.deMeadville.com www.TheGoldUpdate.com
CPI Shocker Lifted the Greenback, which now needs to Take a Breath

CPI Shocker Lifted the Greenback, which now needs to Take a Breath

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 15.11.2021 10:14
The jump in US headline CPI above 6% crossed some Rubicon and injected dynamic into the process.  The dollar rallied, and new highs for the year were recorded against the euro and sterling.  The dovish tapering announcement by the Fed on November 3 was completely unwound as the December 2022 Fed funds futures returned to the high-yield mark of 66 bp ahead of the weekend.   The two-year yield rose from about 39 bp at the start of the last week to almost 55 bp.  The volatility of the bond market (the equivalent of the VIX for the S&P 500) surged back to the year's high (above 78%).   Ultimately, the idea that R-star, the real short-term interest rate when the US economy is at full capacity and inflation stable, has continued to trend lower will likely cap nominal rates.  Equities wobbled, and the S&P 500 snapped an eight-day advance, and the NASDAQ's 11-day rally stalled.  US equities stabilized and posted modest gains in the past two sessions.   The rise in price pressures requires the Federal Reserve to be more flexible to address a range of possible outcomes.  The pace of the tapering is the main constraint on policy.  The FOMC statement committed the Fed to reduce the bond-buying by $15 bln in November and December.  While it anticipated that the pace would continue, it reserved the right to adjust the rate.  This is likely to be the focus in the run-up to the mid-December meeting.  To finish QE in March, as St. Louis Fed's Bullard, a noted hawk, has argued, the Fed would need to double its pace of tapering to $30 bln a month starting in January.  What is at stake is when the Fed's rate hike cycle can begin, not the terminal rate, which is expected to be below 2%.   Dollar Index:  The CPI saw the Dollar Index surge to convincingly surpass the (38.2%) retracement target of the decline from the March 2020 high (~103) to the January 6 low (~89.20).  That retracement (~94.55) had been penetrated briefly before, but it did not stick.  This time, the Dollar Index rose to new highs for the year, slightly above 95.25.  The next retracement (50%) is found a little above 96.00, and the (61.8%) objective is almost 97.75.   The momentum indicators suggest a high is not yet in place, but the move since the mid-week CPI shocker, above the upper Bollinger Band (~95.00) warns against chasing it.  That said, initial support is likely in the 94.60-94.75 area.   Euro:  The euro was driven below $1.15 after the US CPI report and failed to resurface above this previous floor, which now acts as resistance.  A low near $1.1435 was recorded ahead of the weekend.  Neither the MACD nor Slow Stochastic is over-extended, but, as we saw with the Dollar Index, the exchange rate is outside the Bollinger Band (slightly below $1.1465) and settled below it for the third consecutive session ahead of the weekend. There is little chart support until the $1.1290-$1.1300 area is approached.  Moreover, if the euro has carved out some kind of topping pattern, the risk may extend toward $1.10.   Japanese Yen:  From around mid-September through mid-October, the dollar broke out of the old JPY109-JPY111 range to reach JPY114.70 on October 20.  It consolidated at lower levels and approached JPY112.70 on November 9.  The jump in the US CPI reported the following day lifted the greenback to JPY114.00, and it reached JPY114.30 before the weekend.  We often experience the dollar-yen exchange rate as a pair often rangebound.  We had anticipated a JPY113-JPY115 range and would allow about a half a yen range or so violation. The MACD has flatlined, while the Slow Stochastic has turned higher.  Although the fit is not perfect, we still look at US yields for directional cues.   British Pound:  Sterling had been turned lower on November 4 from $1.37 by the BOE, who caught the market leaning too far over its skis, arguably encouraged to do so by official rhetoric.  Its attempt to recover was stalled near $1.36, and the US inflation jump set it to new lows for the year.  The low ahead of the weekend was slightly below $1.3355.  The MACD is entering oversold territory, while the Slow Stochastic, which leveled off, seems to be slipping into over-extended territory as well.  After closing for two sessions below the lower Bollinger Band, it finished the week back above it (~$1.3355).  A close above $1.3400 would suggest a consolidative phase lies ahead.  Last December, sterling recorded lows $1.3135-$1.3185, and the risk is for this area to be tested.   Canadian Dollar:  Since the US CPI surprise, the Canadian dollar has been the weakest of the major currencies, falling around 0.75% against the greenback.  It was the third consecutive weekly decline for the Loonie, which was preceded by a five-week advance.  The US dollar posted an outside up day in the middle of last week on the back of the CPI news.  It rallied from slightly below CAD1.2390 to a little above CAD1.25.  On Thursday, when US and Canadian banks were closed for holidays, the dollar rose to almost CAD1.2600 and made a marginal new high ahead of the weekend.  This met the (50%) retracement of the US dollar's decline since the CAD1.29 level was approached a couple of days before the September 22 FOMC meeting.  The Slow Stochastic is over-extended, though the MACD has more scope to run.  Here too, the market moved quickly, and the greenback settled the past two sessions above the Bollinger Band (~CAD1.2555). The CAD1.2480 area may offer initial support.   Australian Dollar:  The Australian dollar recorded the low for the year on August 20, near $0.7100.  It recovered into early September (~$0.7480) before being turned back to $0.7170 by the end of the month. The Aussie launched another advance last month that carried to around $0.7555 and the 200-day moving average.  It has come under new pressure this month and fell to nearly $0.7275 ahead of the weekend, meeting the (61.8%) retracement target of the overall rally since August 20.  It closed on a firm note above $0.7300.  The Slow Stochastic is over-extended and could turn up next week.  The MACD is still pointing lower.  After settling out the Bollinger Band on Wednesday and Thursday, the Aussie moved back into it (~$0.7300) ahead of the weekend.  Initial resistance is seen in the $0.7335-$0.7355 band.   Mexican Peso:  The US CPI boosted the dollar by nearly 1.6% against the peso, the most in five months.  It was the only advance of the week, but it was sufficient for the greenback to close around 0.6% stronger.  The high for the week (~MXN20.7225) was recorded in the hours after the central bank delivered its fourth quarter-point rate hike.  Banxico showed no appetite to increase the pace, unlike other regional central banks, even though CPI is still accelerating.  Still, the greenback slightly exceeded the (61.8%) retracement target (~MXN20.70) of its decline from the November 3 high (~MXN20.98) to the November 9 low (~MXN20.2515) before retreating ahead of the weekend.  Support is seen around the 20-day moving average (~MXN20.42).  Among emerging market currencies, the Brazilian real (~2.3%) and the Chilean peso (1.6%) fared best.  The Hungarian forint (~-2.9%) and the Turkish lira (-2.75) saw the largest losses.  The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index fell by about 0.40% last week, the eighth weekly decline in the past ten.   Chinese Yuan:  One would not know it by reading much of the free financial press, but the Chinese yuan is the strongest currency in the world this year.  Its 2.3% advance eclipses the Canadian dollar, the only major currency stronger against the US dollar on the year (~1.3%).  The tensions in Europe and the pullback in oil prices saw the Russian rouble tumble almost 2.3% last week.  It was knocked from its perch as the top performer, allowing the yuan to pull ahead.  The dollar settled last week, slightly under CNY6.38, its lowest close since May 31, when it recorded a three-year low (~CNY6.3570).  The trend line connecting the 2014 dollar-low and 2018 low is frayed in May and June but essentially held.  It is now being violated more convincingly.   Sentiment toward investment in China has become in fashion again.  The NASDAQ Golden Dragon Index that tracks Chinese companies that trade in the US rallied nearly 7% last week.  China's 10-year yield of 2.80% may not sound particularly exciting, but it is the only benchmark that has not sold off this year.  The yield has fallen 20 bp.    Disclaimer
MSFT, Johnson&Johnson and More Companies With Reports to be Released shortly

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 14 November 2021

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 15.11.2021 11:20
The S&P500 ChartStorm is a selection of 10 charts which I hand pick from around the web and post on Twitter. The purpose of this post is to add extra color and commentary around the charts. The charts focus on the S&P500 (US equities); and the various forces and factors that influence the outlook - with the aim of bringing insight and perspective. Hope you enjoy! p.s. if you haven’t already, subscribe (free) to receive the ChartStorm direct to your inbox, so you don’t miss out on any charts (you never know which one could change the whole perspective!) Subscribe Now 1. Vacciversary: Can you believe, an entire year has passed since the Pfizer vaccine announcement. Markets had a strong immediate reaction, and since then have chalked up some 34% in gains. Of course a bunch of other factors are also at play, and we also had delta along the way, but you have to think at some level if there were no vaccine that the ride in markets might have been a little rougher. Source: @LarryAdamRJ 2. Investor Movement Index: The IMX moved down slightly in October - this continues the pattern of movement downwards from the peak in optimism of a few months ago. This is typically not a healthy sign for sentiment indicators i.e. reaching an extreme and then leveling off. Source: TD Ameritrade 3. Investment Manager Index: On the other hand, the Markit IMI rebounded further in November with risk appetite surging to multi-month highs and expected returns reaching a new (albeit short history - newish survey) high. Source: @IHSMarkitPMI 4. Euphoriameter: Even my own Euphoriameter composite sentiment indicator has ticked higher so far in November as valuations and bullish surveyed sentiment remain high and volatility lulls back towards complacency. Source: @topdowncharts 5. Investor Sentiment vs Consumer Sentiment: But not all sentiment indicators are at the highs: consumer sentiment has been decidedly less optimistic. I mentioned in a recent video that the UoM consumer sentiment indicator was perhaps overstating the extent of the decline, but the other 2 consumer confidence indicators I track for the USA have also started to drop off recently. This has left quite the divergence between consumer sentiment and investor sentiment. A large part of this is probably down to the inflationary shock that is currently facing the global economy due to pandemic disruption to the global supply chain *and* unprecedented monetary + fiscal stimulus (remember: supply shortages/backlogs and the associated inflation surge don’t exist if there is no demand —> demand has been boosted by stimulus —> and stimulus helps stocks ——> gap explained). Source: @takis2910 6. Real Earnings Yield: Another effect of the surge in inflation has been a plunge in the real earnings yield: again this can be squared up by noting that stimulus has been a key driver of the inflation shock and a key driver of the surge in asset prices —> surging asset prices (stock prices) leads to a lower nominal earnings yield (again: gap explained). So is this a problem? Perhaps, but one way or the other it will probably be transitory (if you can read between the lines a little there!!). Source: @LizAnnSonders 7. Valuations: Valuations rising = risks rising... but then again it's a bull market, so POLR is higher (for now). n.b. “POLR” = path of least resistance: basic notion that in markets and life when a force is set in motion an object will not change its motion/trajectory unless another force acts on it... That means a bull market will carry on until something changes e.g. a crisis, monetary policy tightening, recession, regulations/politics, (or a combination of all of those!). Source: @mark_ungewitter 8. Household Financial Asset Allocations: We all know by now that equity allocations by households is at/near record highs. But one surprise: cash holdings have jumped and are apparently on par with debt (bonds etc) ...even as cash rates suck (and are even suckier when you consider the real interest rate). Probably an element of booking gains, stimulus payments, and precautionary savings. Recall though: the job of cash is preservation of capital (and optionality) vs generating returns, as such. Source: @MikeZaccardi 9. S&P500 Constituents Return Distribution: I thought this was interesting - especially the tails of the distribution - a lot of heavy lifting being done at the tails. But also that ”s” — tails (i.e. big dispersion between left and right tails). Source: @spglobal via @bernardiniv68 10. The Five Biggest Stocks: The bigness of the biggest stocks in the index is biggening more bigly. Serious though: the market is increasingly lop-sided, this means diversification may be diminishing as systematic risk will be increasingly driven by specific risk. Source: @biancoresearch Thanks for following, I appreciate your interest! !! BONUS CHART: Leveraged ETF trading indicator >> Click through to the ChartStorm Substack to see the bonus chart section https://chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-14-november Follow us on: Substack https://topdowncharts.substack.com/ LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/company/topdown-charts Twitter http://www.twitter.com/topdowncharts
The Long and Short of Commodities

The Long and Short of Commodities

Topdown Charts Topdown Charts 03.11.2021 09:45
Commodities are up sharply this year, but several short-term indicators flash caution The medium-longer term bull case remains compelling The chart of commodities ex-gold versus gold offers clues to near-term price action Commodities are on pace for their best annual performance of the century. 2021 has not been a straight line higher, however. There was a period of consolidation during late Q2 through much of Q3. August through mid-October featured another explosive move higher, bringing the GSCI Light Energy index to its highest level in more than seven years. While we are long-term positive on the commodities space, there are mixed signals in the near-term. Breadth has deteriorated while the chart of commodities ex-gold versus gold has gotten extended after dropping to extremely cheap readings last year. It might be time for a pause. Featured Chart: Commodities Ex-Gold vs. Gold Comes Full Circle Sentiment & Positioning Have Soured Another feature that takes away from a positive near-term stance is a drop in bullish sentiment and traders’ positioning. The GSCI Light Energy Index’s consensus bulls reading was nearly two standard deviations above the long-term average at its Q2 peak. Today, the market is less frothy with consensus bulls sporting a Z-score under one. So, while prices have gone up, there is a negative sentiment divergence. Futures positioning shows a similar decoupling. There are fewer speculative net longs in commodities today versus the middle of the year. Excitement has dropped. Perhaps traders are losing interest in commodities as the supply disruption narrative (short-term spike) overshadows the supercycle narrative (longer term bull market). Long-term Upside Remains Likely So, while the near-term picture has turned less encouraging, we are still bullish long-term. Technically, the big breakout that took place a year ago remains alive. A similar breakout occurred in the early 2000s which led to a massive bull run, eventually taking the GSCI Light Energy Index from under 200 to 650. For perspective, the index finished October at 520 as it ventures back into the range from 2010 to mid-2014. Valuations remain compelling, too. Our Commodities Composite Valuation Indicator dropped nearly two standard deviations below its long-term average last year and has now recovered back to neutral. That suggests no barrier to higher prices based on a valuation argument despite the 46% year-on-year rally. The Supercycle May Be Just Beginning We assert the supercycle thesis is intact. The 10-year moving average of year-on-year returns (using the Refinitiv Equal-Weight Commodities Index) dipped negative in 2020—a dismal feat rarely seen in the EW commodities index’s 120-year history. While the 10-year moving average has crept higher in 2021, projections based on our Capital Market Assumptions dataset suggest further upside in the coming decade. Fundamental Factors Finally, a significant macro theme we’ve detailed this year is the dearth in commodities capex which endured a double-dip recession in 2020. While there are one-off supply disruptions in play, the bigger picture theme of extended underinvestment in commodity supply persists. A capex boom—driven by energy firms themselves, the green & EV movements, and increased public infrastructure investment—is likely, which is a source of demand for commodities. Bottom line: We took a bullish stance on commodities in March 2020 with a timeframe of 3-5 years. Our latest Weekly Macro Themes report reiterates the stance but reduces the conviction level based on some near-term mixed signals. The long-run bullish drivers are still there: underinvestment in supply, a robust capex outlook, and continued improvement in global demand for commodities. Follow us on: Substack https://topdowncharts.substack.com/ LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/company/topdown-charts Twitter http://www.twitter.com/topdowncharts
The Greenback Slips at the Start the New Week

The Greenback Slips at the Start the New Week

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 15.11.2021 12:19
Overview:  While the Belarus-Poland border remains an intense standoff, there have been a couple other diplomatic developments that may be exciting risk appetites today.  First, Biden and Xi will talk by phone later today.  Second, reports suggest the UK has toned down its rhetoric making progress on talks on the implementation of the Northern Ireland Protocol.  Equities in the Asia Pacific region were mostly firmer, with China a notable exception among the large markets, even though the October data was generally stronger than expected.  Europe's Stoxx 600, which has fallen only once this month, is edging higher to new records, while US futures are enjoying a firmer bias.  Benchmark 10-year yields are 1-2 bp lower, which puts the Treasury yield near 1.55%.  The European periphery is outperforming the core.  The dollar is soft.  The Scandis and Antipodeans lead the move, while the euro, yen, and British pound are little changed.  Emerging market currencies are also mostly stronger.  Here the Philippine peso is notable as it falls the most in seven weeks as corporates bought dollars.  After falling by 0.65% last week, the JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is edging higher today.  Gold is snapping a seven-day rally, stalling near $1868.  Support is seen in the $1842-$1845 area.  January WTI  was sold again as it poked above $80.  It is pinned near last week's lows (~$78.65) as the US response is awaited.  European natural gas futures are firm as the capacity auction results are awaited, and Europe faces its first cold snap of the season.  Iron ore and copper prices are posting small losses.   Asia Pacific Japan's Q3 GDP disappointed, but it is old news and will likely spur Prime Minister Kishida to support a large supplemental budget, which could be unveiled by the end of the week.  Economic growth in the world's third-largest economy contracted for the fifth quarter in the past eight.  The 0.8% loss of output in Q3 was more than the 0.2% expected by the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey.  Consumption (-1.1%), business spending (-3.8%), and public investment (-1.5%) did the most damage.  The GDP deflator was unchanged from Q2 at -1.1%.  The Japanese economy is recovering here in Q4.  Talk of the size of the supplemental budget has increased to around JPY40 trillion (~$350 bln) from JPY30 trillion.  It is expected to include a cash payment for 18-year olds and younger, a tax break for companies that boost wages, a new subsidy for domestic travel, snd pay hikes for caregivers. China's October data was stronger than expected but does not shake off concern that the world's second-largest economy is struggling.  The year-over-year pace of retail sales rose for the second consecutive month in the face of expectations for a decline.  The 4.9% increase follows the 4.4% gain in September and 2.5% in August. In October 2020, it rose 4.3% year-over-year.  Industrial output rose 3.5% from a year ago. It was the first increase since March. Last October, it had increased by 6.9%. The surveyed joblessness was steady at 4.9%.  Fixed asset investment and property investment slowed.  Chinese officials have not addressed the economic slowdown with large-scale fiscal or monetary initiatives.   We have suggested that the dollar-yen exchange rate has entered a new range after trending higher from mid-September through mid-October.  That new range is likely JPY113-JPY115, and to find the floor, the dollar briefly traded below JPY112.80 last week. After spiking back to JPY114.00 on the US CPI surprise, the greenback continues to hover around there, the middle of the range.  Tomorrow's expiring options ($830 mln at JPY113.40 and $1.6 bln at JPY114.30) may mark the near-term range.  The Australian dollar is building on its pre-weekend recovery.  It saw a low slightly above $0.7275 on Friday and settled on its highs (a little above $0.7330).  It has risen to $0.7365, and the intraday momentum is getting stretched.  Look for resistance near $0.7375.  The greenback edged slightly lower against the Chinese yuan to record a new six-month low (~CNY6.3785) before recovering within a narrow range.  It is trading slightly above CNY6.3830 in late dealings. The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at CNY6.3896, a little below the median forecast of CNY6.3896 (Bloomberg survey).  The PBOC rolled over in full the policy loans (CNY1 trillion) coming due this month, and the overnight repo rate fell by seven basis points to 1.78%, the lowest in three weeks.   Europe Tensions between the UK and EU appear to have taken a step away from the brink.  A deal on medicine supplies from other parts of Great Britain to Northern Ireland may have been the critical catalyst.  Reports suggest a de-escalation of UK rhetoric threatening to invoke Article 16, which allows for unilateral over-riding of the Northern Ireland Protocol under certain circumstances of serious economic, environmental, or societal risks.  Separately, two polls have begun showing Labour is edging ahead of the Tories. The Opinium poll (published in the Guardian) gave Labour a one percentage point lead, the first since January.  The Savanta Com Res poll (for the Daily Mail) put Labour ahead by six percentage points at 40%.  The main issue appears to be Prime Minister Johnson's handling of several ethics issues.  His personal support has also waned.    The US was warning at the end of last week that Russian may be preparing to invade Ukraine. Moscow seems to be acting out of fear, fear of the US and Europe creeping presence in Ukraine.  If Ukraine is going to remain independent, Russia insists it can only be a (weak) buffer state.  US rhetoric seemed aggressive in Moscow.  Last month US Defense Secretary Austin argued that no third country [i.e., Russia] has a veto over NATO membership decision[i.e., Ukraine].    Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia are considering formally requesting NATO consultations, while the EU is expected to announce new sanctions on Belarus later today.  Separately, we note reports that India has begun taking delivery of the S-400 air defense missile system from Russia (part of a $5.5 bln deal), which is the same that earned Turkey American sanctions.   The euro edged above the pre-weekend high, but the tone remains fragile, and for the third consecutive session has been unable to resurface above old support at $1.1500.  Since the US CPI report in the middle of last week, it has fallen, and the sideways movement could alleviate the overextended technical condition.  Sterling extended its pre-weekend recovery to reach $1.3440 before sellers reemerged to knock it to the session low of almost $1.3400.  We suspect it can move higher in North America today and target the $1.3480 area.   America The US seems more eager for the Biden-Xi call than Beijing  Expectations should be low, and with no actionable outcome likely (not even a statement), there appears to be little reason to spin it as a virtual summit. The top officials and the senior staff of the two largest economies should talk.  Previously, there were high-level meetings regularly.  Since their last call, a new US-UK-Australian alliance was announced that will result in Australia acquiring nuclear-powered submarines, and it was confirmed that the US has had military personnel in Taiwan since last November.  China continues with its intimidation campaign of repeatedly entering Taiwan's air-identification zone. China's assessment of the US is unlikely to have changed.  Beijing sees the same thing many others do.  Biden's approval rating has fallen to near 41%, and less than that has a favorable view of his handling of the economy.  At the end of last week, the Univerity of Michigan's consumer sentiment measure (preliminary November) fell to its lowest in a decade.  Surveys continue to point to the likelihood that the Democratic Party will lose both houses of Congress in next year's mid-term.  And to underscore the pressure on Biden, the US Court of Appeals (5th Circuit) sustained a block on OSHA's ordered vaccine mandate (or weekly test).  With the sixth plenum over,  Xi has, by all accounts, confirmed his ascendancy and domination of Chinese politics for years to come.   The week's economic calendar for the US begins off slowly.  The November Empire State manufacturing survey is on tap.  It has been in a sawtooth pattern, alternating between gains and losses for the past five months.  It fell sharply (19.8 from 34.3) in October and is expected to have turned up in November.  The US reports October retail sales and industrial production figures tomorrow. Fed officials begin taking to the public stage starting tomorrow.  Over the course of the week, around 11 officials are scheduled to speak.  In addition to US bills, the Treasury Dept sells 20-year bonds, whose auctions have been among the most challenging for coupons, and 10-year TIPS at the end of the week.   Canada reports September manufacturing and wholesale sales today, but the October existing home sales may be more important.  Tomorrow Canada reports housing starts, but the highlight of the week is Wednesday's October CPI.  Price pressures are accelerating in Canada, and the headline CPI is likely to move toward 5% (4.4% in September).  The swaps market is pricing in about 65 bp of tightening in six months.  This week, Mexico has a light economic diary after last week's higher than expected CPI (6.24%) and Banxcio's 25 bp rate hike (to 5%).  Brazil also has a light economic calendar this week.  Last week featured a further rise in (IPCA) CPI (10.67% vs. 10.25%) and weak September retail sales (-1.3% vs. -0.6% median forecast in Bloomberg's survey after a revised -4.3% fall in August). Last week's US CPI shocker saw the greenback jump from around CAD1.24 to slightly above CAD1.26, roughly the 50% retracement of the slump from CAD1.2900 on September 20.  It settled last week on a soft note, and some follow-through selling has seen the US dollar eased to about CAD1.2525.  A break here sees CAD1.2500 and then possibly CAD1.2470.  Since last September, the greenback has moved into a new and higher range against the Mexican peso.  It has not traded much below MN20.12.  Nor has it spent much time above MXN20.90.  It is in the pre-weekend range (~MXN20.45-MXN20.72).  Look for the consolidative day to continue through the local session.  The Brazil real was the strongest emerging market currency last week, rising almost 1.6% against the US dollar.  The US dollar found support around BRK5.40. Trendline support (from June, August, and September lows) and the 200-day moving average are near BRL5.36.   Disclaimer
S&P 500: More Short-Term Uncertainty As Trading Range Narrows

S&P 500: More Short-Term Uncertainty As Trading Range Narrows

Paul Rejczak Paul Rejczak 12.11.2021 17:18
The S&P 500 index went sideways on Thursday following a decline from its last week’s high. Is the downward correction over? For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch   The S&P 500 index gained 0.06% on Thursday, as it fluctuated along the 4,650 level. On Wednesday it fell to the local low of 4,630.86 and it was almost 88 points or 1.86% below the last week’s Friday’s record high of 4,718.50. The recent rally was not broad-based and it was driven by a handful of tech stocks like MSFT, NVDA, TSLA. The market seemed overbought in the short-term and traded within a topping pattern. Today the index may extend a short-term consolidation. The nearest important support level remains at 4,630-4,650 and the next support level is at 4,600. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,700-4,720. The S&P 500 broke below its steep short-term upward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq’s Downward Correction Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index broke above the 16,000 level last week and on Friday it was trading at the new record high. The market accelerated higher above its short-term upward trend line. But since then it has been retracing the rally. The resistance level remains at 16,400, and the short-term support level is at 16,000, among others, as we can see on the daily chart: Apple Remains Relatively Weak, Microsoft Breaks Below the Trend Line Let’s take a look at the two biggest stocks in the S&P 500 index, AAPL and MSFT. Apple came back below the $150 price level. It is still well below the early September record high. Microsoft stock was reaching new record highs recently but on Wednesday it broke below its upward trend line. So the megacaps tech stocks turned lower, as we can see on their daily charts: Conclusion The S&P 500 index was little changed on Thursday and today it is expected to retrace some of its recent declines. So is the downward correction over? For now, there has been no confirmed short-term upward reversal and we may see some more consolidation below the 4,700 mark. The market may go sideways today, as investors keep taking short-term profits off the table following the recent economic and quarterly corporate earnings releases. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 retraced some of its record-breaking rally in the last few trading sessions – for now it looks like a downward correction. Still no positions are justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak, Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Getting Real on PMs and Inflation

Getting Real on PMs and Inflation

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 15.11.2021 15:47
S&P 500 indeed rose but bond markets couldn‘t keep the encouraging opening gains. Can stocks still continue rallying? They look to be setting up for one more downleg of maximum the immediately predecing magnitude, which means not a huge setback. The medium-term path of least resistance remains up – the Fed is still printing a huge amount of money on a monthly basis, and it remains questionable how far in tapering plans execution they would actually get – I see the risks to the real economy coupled with persistently high inflation as rising since the 2Q 2022 (if not since Mar already, but most pronounced in 2H 2022).Stocks are still set for a good Dec and beyond performance – just look at VIX calming down again. It‘s that the debt ceiling drama resolution would allow the Treasury to start issuing fresh debt, and that would weigh heavily on the dollar. That‘s a good part of what gold and silver are sniffing out, and if you look at the great white metal‘s performance, it‘s the result of inflation coming back to the fore as the Fed itself is now admitting to high inflation rates through the mid-2022, putting blame on supply chain bottlenecks. Oh, sure. The real trouble is that inflation expectations are starting to get anchored – people are expecting these rates to be not going away any time soon.Precious metals are going to do great, and keep scoring excellent gains. Surpassing $1,950 isn‘t out of the realm of possibilities, but I prefer to be possitioned aggressively while having more conservative expectations. Not missing a dime this way. Copper is awakening too, and commodities including oil would be doing marvels. If in doubt, look at cryptos, how shallow the corrections there are.A few more words on yields – as more fresh Treasury issued debt enters the markets, look for yields to rise. Coming full circle to stocks and my Friday‘s expectations:(…) TLT though is having trouble declining further, and that means a brief upswing carrying over into stocks, is likely.TLT downswings would be less and less conducive to growth, so if you‘re still heavily in tech, I would start eyeing more value.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls are on the move, and let‘s see how far they make it before running into another (mild, again I say) setback.Credit MarketsCredit markets opening strength fizzled out, but the weakness is getting long in the tooth kind of. I view it as a short-term non-confirmation of the S&P 500 upswing only.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver are on a tear, and rightfully so – I am looking for further gains as both gold and silver miners confirm, and the macroeconomic environment is superb for PMs.Crude OilCrude oil bulls keep defending the $80 level, with $78 serving as the next stop if need be – after Friday, its test is looking as an increasingly remote possibility – the two lower knots in a series say. Anyway, black gold will overcome $85 before too long.CopperCopper ran while commodities paused – that‘s a very bullish sign, for both base and precious metals. The lower volume isn‘t necessarily a warning sign.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum are still consolidating, and the relatively tight price range keeps favoring the bulls – and they‘re peeking higher already.SummaryS&P 500 bulls are holding the short-term upper hand, but the rally may run into headwinds shortly. Still, we‘re looking at a trading range followed by fresh highs as a worst case scenario. Yes, I remain a stock market bull, not expecting a serious setback till probably the third month of 2022. Precious metals are my top pick, followed by copper – and I am definitely not writing off oil, let alone cryptos. Inflation trades are simply back!Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Approaches Supply Zone

Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Approaches Supply Zone

John Benjamin John Benjamin 16.11.2021 09:28
XAUUSD tests trendlineGold continues on its way up as investors seek to hedge against inflationary pressures. The rally picked up steam after a break above the triple top at 1833. Price action is grinding up along a rising trendline.The bulls are pushing towards 1884, a major resistance where last June’s sell-off started. Strong selling pressure is possible in that supply zone as short-term buyers may take profit and reassess the directional bias.1855 on the trendline is the first support. A bearish breakout may trigger a correction to 1823.AUDUSD breaks above bearish channelThe Australian dollar softened after the RBA minutes reiterated that there will be no rate hike until 2024.The pair has found buying interest at the base of October’s bullish breakout (0.7280). A break above the falling channel indicates that sentiment could be turning around.0.7390 is a key resistance and its breach could prompt sellers to bail out. In turn, this would raise volatility in the process. Traders may then switch sides in anticipation of a reversal. An overbought RSI has so far limited the upside impetus.GER 40 rally gains tractionThe Dax 40 climbed after upbeat retail sales and industrial production in China lifted market sentiment.The index is seeking to consolidate its recent gains after it cleared the previous peak at 15990 which has now turned into support. Sentiment remains optimistic and 16300 would be the next step.An overbought RSI on the daily chart may temporarily put the brakes on the bullish fever. But a pullback may once again attract a ‘buying-the-dips’ crowd above 15990. A deeper correction may send the price towards 15770.
Technical Analysis - Support And Resistance - Terms You Should Know

Key event risk and front of mind this week...

Chris Weston Chris Weston 16.11.2021 12:15
UK jobless claims (Tuesday 18:00 AEDT) and Oct CPI (Wed 18:00 AEDT) New home prices (today at 12:30 AEDT), Retail sales, industrial production, fixed-asset investment, property investment (all today 13:00 aedt) Aussie Q3 wage data (Wed 11:30 AEDT) RBA gov Lowe speaks (Tues 13:30 AEDT) US retail sales (Wed 00:30 AEDT), Fed speeches all week with the highlight vice-chair Clarida (Sat 04:15 AEDT) The inflation debate is still the hottest ticket in town – it is promoting higher volatility (vol) in rates markets and bonds, with a small pick-up seen in FX volatility (vol). Equity markets are still, however, calm, with the VIX at 16.3% with falling demand to hedge potential drawdown. This divergence in implied vol across asset class remains a key talking point, but there is no doubt that the boat is not yet tipping with correlations among stocks almost at zero, and cyclical sectors (of the S&P500) still holding up well vs defensives. If the US high yield credit spread accelerated above 273bp above the US 10yr Treasury (currently 267bp), then again, I think equities would be a better sell.  Now this dynamic may change, especially if the debt ceiling comes into play in mid-Dec…but what are the signs to look for over a medium-term?  A higher vol regime will make conditions far more prosperous for equity short-sellers and change the dynamics in FX markets, with renewed downside demand for high beta FX (AUD, NZD, CAD, and MXN). The USD will turn from one being driven by pro-cyclical forces – i.e. relative economics and rate settings - to one sought for safe-haven demand, with the JPY also benefiting.  (Implied volatility benchmarks across asset class) Firstly, I would start with the rates markets – we can see a bit over 2 hikes priced into US fed funds future by the end-2022, with rates ‘lift off’ starting in July. I think if we priced in over 3 hikes in 2022 it could become more problematic for risk assets. Looking out the Eurodollar rates curve, we see a reasonably aggressive pace of hikes in 2022 and 2023, but then the pace markedly declines with barely anything priced for 2024 and 2025. In essence, the market sees hikes as front-loaded suggesting the Fed are in fact not dramatically behind the curve – a factor that is one of the core debates in macro.  We see an 89bp differential between the Eurodollar Dec 2025 and Dec 2022 futures contracts – if this moves back to say 140bp then this could be the market feeling that inflation is going to be a far greater problem and rate hikes are being more aggressively priced throughout the next four years. (Orange – US 5y5y forward rate, white – Fed’s long-term dot plot projection) Also, if the US 5y5y forward rate (the markets view on the ‘terminal’ fed funds rate – now 1.94%) pushed above 2.50% (the Fed’s long-term dot plot projection), again, I think this would be a trigger for far higher volatility and risk aversion.  A move to 2.50% won't play out overnight, if at all, and we’ll need to see real evidence that the US labour force participation rate is not going above 62%, while unit labour costs stay elevated and supply chains heal at a glacial pace. However, if the forward rate was eyeing 2.5% I think this could be a factor many strategists will point to for the VIX to sustain a move above 20%. The gold market is perhaps one of the more classic signs of inflationary concerns – this is a play on US ‘real’ (adjusted for inflation expectations) rates though, where the combination of a better economy in Q4, record negative US real rates and rising inflation is one the gold bulls will seek out precious metals. The Fed may need to promote a move higher in real rates, but the knock-on effect is they risk the stock market finding sellers – notably in growth stocks. A downside break of -2% in 5yr US real Treasury’s could be the trigger for gold to push into and above $1900.  Many debate the linkage between inflation expectations and the real economy. I’m not sure it matters when people are feeling the effects for themselves, and much has been made of the recent NFIB small business survey and Friday’s University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, which hit the lowest levels since August 2011.  Clearly inflation is not popular and is increasingly the key political issue – I’d argue if real rates break to new lows this could accelerate inflation hedges, while a move through 2.7% in US 5y5y inflation swaps (currently 2.55%) would also play into the idea that perhaps the Fed, at the very least, need to radically reduce the pace of QE in the December FOMC meeting.  Clearly, the US Nov CPI (released 11 Dec) is going to be a big event for markets to digest and the signs are price pressures will continue to build from the current 6.2% YoY pace.  Crude and gasoline also play a key role in shaping sentiment – Senate Majority Leader Schumer has called on President Biden to release an element of the US’s Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR). This is a factor that has been talked up since OPEC rejected the US’s calls to increase output by more than 400k barrels. However, the introduction of Schumer into the mix just adds fuel to the fire and this may weigh on crude. So, a few indictors I am watching that could spur the market into a belief the Fed are genuinely behind the curve – I’d argue the market isn’t there yet, but if the factors I mention don’t show evidence of dissipating then we could see forward rates move to levels that could highlight the Fed need to act far more intently – that is where risk dynamics could markedly change.
Stocks to Open Higher but Another Profit-taking Action is Likely

Stocks to Open Higher but Another Profit-taking Action is Likely

Paul Rejczak Paul Rejczak 15.11.2021 15:51
  Stocks retraced some of their recent declines on Friday and the S&P 500 index is expected to open higher this morning. So is the downward correction over? The S&P 500 index gained 0.72% on Friday, Nov. 12, as investor sentiment turned bullish and the market bounced from the support level of around 4,650. On Wednesday it fell to the local low of 4,630.86 and it was almost 88 points or 1.86% below the previous week’s Friday’s record high of 4,718.50. The recent rally was not broad-based and it was driven by a handful of tech stocks like MSFT, NVDA, TSLA. The market seemed overbought in the short-term and traded within a topping pattern. But today the index may get back to the 4,700 level. The nearest important support level remains at 4,630-4,650 and the next support level is at 4,600. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,700-4,720. The S&P 500 broke below its steep short-term upward trend line recently, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq Bounced From the 16,000 Level Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. In the previous week the technology index broke above the 16,000 level and it was trading at the new record high. The market accelerated higher above its short-term upward trend line. But since then it has been retracing the rally. On Friday the index retraced some of the recent declines, however it remained below its short-term local lows, as we can see on the daily chart: Apple Is Still Close to $150, Microsoft Remains Relatively Strong Let’s take a look at the two biggest stocks in the S&P 500 index, AAPL and MSFT. Apple continues to fluctuate along the $150 price level. It is still well below the early September record high. Microsoft stock was reaching new record highs recently but last week it broke below its upward trend line. So those two big cap tech stocks remain mixed, as we can see on their daily charts: Conclusion The S&P 500 index retraced some of its recent declines on Friday and today it is expected to open 0.4% higher. So it looks like a downward correction is over and the market may reach new highs or at least extend a short-term consolidation along the 4,700 level. Investors will wait for tomorrow’s Retail Sales number release and some Fed-talk later in the week. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 is expected to extend its Friday’s advance this morning and it may get to the 4,700 level. Still no positions are justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Biden Signs a Bill to Revive Infrastructure… and Gold!

Biden Signs a Bill to Revive Infrastructure… and Gold!

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 16.11.2021 14:13
Gold rallied thanks to the changed narrative on inflation, and Biden’s infrastructure plan can only add to the inflationary pressure. Huge price moves ahead? I have a short quiz for you! What the government should do to decrease inflation that reached the highest level in 30 years? A) Decrease its expenditure to make room for the Fed to hike the federal funds rate. B) Press the US central bank to tighten its monetary policy. C) Deregulate the markets and lower taxes to boost the supply side of the economy. D) Introduce a huge infrastructure plan that will multiply spending on energy, raw materials, and inputs in general. Please guess which option the US government chose. Yes, the worst possible. Exam failed! At the beginning of November, Congress passed a bipartisan infrastructure bill. And President Biden signed it on Monday (November 15, 2021). To be clear, I’m not claiming that America doesn’t need any investment in infrastructure. Perhaps it needs it, and perhaps it’s a better idea than social spending on unemployment benefits that discourage work. I don’t want to argue about the adequacy of large government infrastructure projects, although government spending generally fails to stimulate genuine economic growth and governments rarely outperform the private sector in effectiveness. My point is that $1.2 trillion infrastructure spending is coming at the worst possible moment. The US economy is facing supply shortages and high inflation caused by surging demand, which choked the ports and factories. In short, too much money is chasing too few goods, and policymakers decided to add additional money into the already blocked supply chains! I have no words of admiration for the intellectual abilities of the members of Congress and the White House! Indeed, the spending plan does not have to be inflationary if financed purely by taxes and borrowing. However, the Fed will likely monetize at least part of the newly issued federal debt, and you know, to build or repair infrastructure, workers are needed, and steel, and concrete, and energy. The infrastructure spending, thus, will add pressure to the ongoing energy crisis and high producer price inflation, not to mention the shortage of workers. Implications for Gold What does the passing of the infrastructure bill imply for the gold market? Well, it should be supportive of the yellow metal. First, it will increase the fiscal deficits by additional billions of dollars (the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill will enlarge the deficits by $256 billion). Second, government spending will add to the inflationary pressure, which gold should also welcome. After all, gold recalled last week that it is a hedge against high and accelerating inflation. As the chart below shows, gold not only jumped above the key level of $1,800, but it even managed to cross $1,850 on renewed inflation worries. The infrastructure bill was probably discounted by the traders, so its impact on the precious metals market should be limited. However, generally, all news that could intensify inflationary fears should be supportive of the yellow metal. You see, the narrative has changed. So far, the thinking was that higher inflation implies faster tapering and interest rates hikes and, thus, lower gold prices. This is why gold was waiting on the sidelines for the past several months despite high inflation. Investors also believed that inflation would be transitory. However, the recent CPI report forced the markets to embrace the fact that inflation could be more persistent. What’s more, tapering of quantitative easing started, which erased some downward pressure on gold. Moreover, despite the slowdown in the pace of asset purchases, the Fed will maintain its accommodative stance and stay behind the curve. So, at the moment, the reasoning is that high inflation implies elevated fears, which is good for gold. I have always believed that gold’s more bullish reaction to accelerating inflation was a matter of time. It’s possible that this time has just come. Having said that, investors should remember that market narratives can change quickly. At some point, the Fed will probably step in and send some hawkish signals, which could calm investors and pull some of them out of the gold market. My second concern is that gold could have reacted not to accelerating inflation, but rather to the plunge in the real interest rates. As the chart below shows, the yields on 10-year TIPS have dropped to -1.17, a level very close to the August bottom. When something reaches the bottom, it should rebound later. And if real interest rates start to rally, then gold could struggle again. However, I’ll stop complaining now and allow the bulls to celebrate the long-awaited breakout. It’s an interesting development compared to the last months, that’s for sure! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
The Elephant in the Room

The Elephant in the Room

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 16.11.2021 15:42
S&P 500 is starting to run into a setback even if VIX doesn‘t reveal that fully. Credit markets going from weakness to weakness spells more short-term woes for stocks – a shallow downswing that feels (and is) a trading range before the surge to new ATHs continues, is likely to materialize in the second half of Nov. We may be in its opening stages – as written yesterday: (…) Can stocks still continue rallying? They look to be setting up for one more downleg of the immediately predecing magnitude, which means not a huge setback. The medium-term path of least resistance remains up – the Fed is still printing a huge amount of money on a monthly basis, and it remains questionable how far in tapering plans execution they would actually get – I see the risks to the real economy coupled with persistently high inflation as rising since the 2Q 2022 (if not since Mar already, but most pronounced in 2H 2022). Stocks are still set for a good Dec and beyond performance. The elephant in the room is (the absence of) fresh debt issuance lifting up the dollar, making it like rising yields more. Not only that these are failing to push value higher, but the tech resilience highlights the defensive nature of S&P 500 performance. Crucially though, precious metals are seeing through the (misleading dollar strength) fog, and are sharply rising regardless. Make no mistake, with the taper reaction, we have seen what I had been expecting (or even better given that I prefer reasonably conservative stance without drumming up expectations either way) – I had been telling you that the hardest times for the metals are before taper. And the magnitude and pace of their upswing casts a verdict on the Fed‘s (likely in)ability to follow through with the taper execution, let alone initiate the rate raising cycle without being laughed off the stage as markets force these regardless of the central planners. The galloping inflation expectations are sending a very clear message: (…) if you look at the great white metal‘s performance, it‘s the result of inflation coming back to the fore as the Fed itself is now admitting to high inflation rates through the mid-2022, putting blame on supply chain bottlenecks. Oh, sure. The real trouble is that inflation expectations are starting to get anchored – people are expecting these rates to be not going away any time soon. Precious metals are going to do great… Copper is awakening too, and commodities including oil would be doing marvels. TLT downswings would be less and less conducive to growth, so if you‘re still heavily in tech, I would start eyeing more value. Let me add the Russell 2000 and emerging markets to the well performing medium-term mix. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bulls didn‘t make it too far before running into another (mild, again I say) setback – so far, a sideways one. Credit Markets Credit markets renewed their march lower, and unless they turn, the S&P 500 upswings would remain on shaky ground (if and when they materialize). Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver remain on a tear, and even for the breather to unfold, it takes quite an effort. The bears clearly can‘t hope for a trend change. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls keep defending the $80 level, with $78 serving as the next stop if need be – these consecutive lower knots keep favoring the bulls, just when the right catalyst arrives. Whether that takes one or two days or more, is irrelevant – it will happen. Copper Copper ran into an unexpected setback, which however doesn‘t change the outlook thanks to its relatively low volume. I‘m still looking for much higher red metal‘s prices. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are seeing an emerging crack in the dam that doesn‘t tie too well to developments elsewhere. The bulls should step in, otherwise this yellow flag risks turning into a red one. Summary S&P 500 bulls are now holding only the medium-term upper hand as the rally is entering a consolidation phase. Anyway, this trading range would be followed by fresh ATHs, which would power stocks even higher in early 2022. Precious metals have quite some catching up to do, and the long post Aug 2020 consolidation is over. Copper, base metals, oil and agrifoods are likely to keep doing great as inflation expectations show that inflation truly hasn‘t been tamed in the least. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Bitcoin, a battle for freedom

Bitcoin, a battle for freedom

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 17.11.2021 08:01
We find ourselves ensued in various battles. Environmentally, economically, and from a human perspective. As much as it is questionable if coal and oil, centralized money, and wars (attacks on ourselves) hold a prosperous future, change is typically avoided. There have been moments in history where rapid change happened. Most often introduced by a charismatic human being with a compelling principle at a defining moment when a change was needed. S&P 500 Index versus BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, bitcoin an answer to crisis? S&P 500 Index versus Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 16th, 2021. The bitcoin idea was born as a response to the crash of 2008. In its principles, diametrical to fiat currencies. Bitcoin is decentralized, limited, deflationary and digital. There is no historical event where increased money printing has resolved economic turmoil. And yet, we have not come up with a better solution, or at least we have not implemented it yet. The chart above shows how shortly after the crash of 2008, the first transaction ever sent on the bitcoin blockchain was completed in January 2009.Coincidence? It took some time until the cryptocurrency’s pseudonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto found traction with his idea reflected in bitcoin’s price rise. Still, it has not just caught up but outperformed the market by a stunning margin. BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, don’t underestimate powerful ideas: Bitcoin versus gold and silver in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 16th, 2021. Covid provided like a steroid a means to illustrate many shortcomings in a magnified way. The chart above shows that bitcoin speculation was an answer to where many find a more prosperous future compared to precious metals. In addition to fundamentals and technical, the underlying idea and hope for a transitory future got traction when people were most afraid.   BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, sitting through turmoil with ease: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 16th, 2021. Dissecting markets like this in all their shades and facets is necessary for discovering underlying currents, motivation, and sustainability of trends. In bitcoins case, the found strength of application, beliefs, and principles inherent in bitcoin itself and its traders allows for sitting more easily through its volatility swings. Once the mind grasps reason, it tolerates easier, otherwise hardships to trade a volatile vehicle like bitcoin. With a battle ensured on this magnitude and for an expected long duration, one can accept deep retracements in a more tranquil fashion. The monthly chart above shows that bitcoin might face one of those quick dips that hodlers accept, knowing that the battle isn’t over yet. Bitcoin, a battle for freedom: Mills are grinding slowly. Change typically takes time, and those holding the reign over financial power will certainly not surrender such summoned energies lightly. While this world certainly needs a more adaptive behavior of humanity both for its wellbeing and the planet itself, it is unlikely that a shift, if at all, will be swift. This means that bitcoin is a continued struggle to establish itself. And this will result in continued high volatility for the years to come. As such, it will remain an excellent opportunity for the individual investor. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Pushes Higher

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Pushes Higher

John Benjamin John Benjamin 17.11.2021 09:08
EURUSD lacks support The US dollar inched higher after October’s retail sales beat expectations. There has been a lack of interest in the single currency following its fall below the daily support at 1.1530. The divergence between the 20 and 30-hour moving averages indicates an acceleration in the sell-off. The bears are targeting the demand zone around 1.1200 from last July. The RSI’s oversold situation may prompt momentum traders to cover. Though a rebound is likely to be capped by 1.1370 and sellers would be eager to sell into strength. GBPJPY attempts to rebound The sterling recouped losses after Britain’s unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%. On the daily chart, the pair saw support near the 61.8% (152.60) Fibonacci retracement of the October rally. A bullish RSI divergence was a sign that the bearish pressure was fading. A break above 153.60 could be an attempt to turn the mood around. The initial surge may need more support after the RSI shot into the overbought area. Should the pound stay above 152.35-152.60, a rebound would lift it towards 155.20. NAS 100 tests peak The Nasdaq 100 bounces back supported by robust tech earnings. The index showed exhaustion after a four-week-long bull run. A combination of an overbought RSI and its bearish divergence made traders cautious in buying into high valuations. A break below the psychological level of 16000 has triggered a wave of profit-taking. A deeper retreat below 16020 would send the index to the previous peak at 15700 which coincides with the 30-day moving average. On the upside, A rally above 16400 would resume the uptrend.
European Gas Jumps, while the Euro and Yen Slump

European Gas Jumps, while the Euro and Yen Slump

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 17.11.2021 15:31
Overview: The prospects that the 6.2% CPI will prompt the Fed to move quicker continue to underpin the dollar.  The euro fell to about $1.1265, its lowest level since last September, and the Japanese yen slumped to a fresh four-year low.  The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index tumbled 1% yesterday, the largest decline since February.  A more stable tone is evident in Europe, as the euro has recovered above $1.13, and the JP Morgan Index is paring yesterday's losses.  The dollar is holding just below JPY115.00.  Asia Pacific equities did not fare well.  Only China and Taiwan markets, among the large regional markets, managed to rise.  Europe's Stoxx 600 is edging higher for the sixth consecutive session.  Recall it has fallen only once since October 27.  US futures are narrowly mixed. The bond market is quiet, with the US 10-year hovering around 1.62%.  European yields are a little softer.  Gold slid below $1850 yesterday but has snapped back today to test the $1860 area.  Crude oil is heavy, with the January WTI contract around $78.80, unable to resurface above $80 amid talk that the US and China may coordinate the release of strategic holdings.  Gas prices are up another 7% in Europe today after surging 16% yesterday and 9% on Monday. Due to "unplanned maintenance," a Belarus pipeline to Poland has been shut down, which may last three days.  Iron ore prices are giving back around half of yesterday's 1.2% gain, for the third loss in four sessions.  Copper is off for a third session, losing after dropping 2.2% in the past two sessions.   Asia Pacific Japan's October trade data disappointed.  Exports and imports were weaker than expected, and this resulted in a smaller deficit. Exports slowed to 9.4% year-over-year, down from 13% in September, defying expectations for a small double-digit increase.  Imports were up 26.7% from a year ago, off the heady 38.2% pace seen in September and below the 31.8% projected.  The resulting trade deficit of JPY67.4 bln was about a fifth of what economists anticipated (Bloomberg survey).  It is the third consecutive monthly deficit.  In the first seven months of the year, Japan recorded two deficits.  A year ago, Japan recorded a JPY840 bln surplus.   Reports suggesting that the possibility that the US and China coordinate the drawdown of strategic oil reserves are light on details, but the suggestion itself is enough to weigh on prices.  Still, the International Energy Agency yesterday echoed the broad assessment of America's EIA in anticipating that the tightness of the oil market could ease shortly.   Increased output in the US, Saudi Arabia, and Russia may account for half of the 1.5 mln barrel a day anticipated increase in supply. Nevertheless, the acting head of the EIA warned tapping the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve would have a short-term impact, for which other dynamics would quickly overshadow it.  Separately, note that the API estimated a slight build of 655k barrels in US stocks this past week, while gasoline inventories fell.   In other regional developments, Australia's wage price index rose a modest 0.6% in Q3 for a year-over-year pace of 2.2%.  This was in line with expectations.  It would seem to support the RBA's argument that it need not be in a hurry to raise rates.  The June 2022 T-bill yield settled last month at 69 bp and is now near 40 bp.  Separately, China appears to be allowing "high quality" property developments to return to the asset-backed securities market to raise capital after a three-month hiatus. Lastly, reports suggest Beijing is moving ahead with its import substitution plans to reduce dependency on foreign technology.    The dollar approached JPY115.00, where an option for almost $610 mln expires today.  The dollar has not traded above there since March 2017.  Since the dollar broke above JPY112.00, we have suggested that JPY114.50-JPY115.00 may mark the top of the new range.  While this has worked for the past month, the risk is on the upside.  A convincing break of around JPY115.50 would target the JPY118.00 area.  Initial support is now seen near JPY114.70.  Note that the upper Bollinger Band is slightly below JPY114.80.  The Australian dollar is trading near its lowest level since October 6, near $0.7265.  It is holding above a trendline connecting the August and September lows, which is found near $0.7250 today, but little stands in the way of a test on the $0.7200 in the coming days.  An option for a little more than A$800 mln at $0.7300 is set to expire today.  After posting a key upside reversal yesterday, the US dollar consolidated against the Chinese yuan today, and no follow-through buying materialized.  Instead, it seemed that the local market took advantage of the pop above CNY6.39 to sell the greenback, which is straddling CNY6.38 in late dealings.  The reference rate was set at CNY6.3935, just below the bank projections (CNY6.3936, according to the median in the Bloomberg survey).  We note that the yuan is also at its best level since 2015 against the trade-weighted CFETS basket the PBOC uses.   Europe On the heels of a strong employment report, the UK reported a larger than expected increase in the October CPI.  The preferred measure, which includes owner-equivalent housing costs, jumped to 3.8% from 2.9%.  The older measure rose to 4.2% from 3.1%.  On the month, consumer prices rose 1.1% rather than the 0.8% economists forecast (Bloomberg median). Flattered by increasing gas and electricity prices.  Core prices rose 3.4% year-over-year, accelerating from 2.9% in September and defying forecasts for a 3.1% pace.  Separately, producer prices, both input and output, also rose more than expected.  Lastly, UK house prices rose 11.8% year-over-year in September, up from a revised 10.2% in August.  The recent peak was 12.6% in June, which was the highest since 2004.    European gas prices are at one-month highs.  Belarus has stopped its pipeline to Poland, claiming unplanned maintenance issues, while the border tensions and earlier threats raise suspicions of a political move.  Separately, the German regulator suspended the certification process of the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline as corporate assets are rearranged.  Separately, a German court yesterday dismissed an environmental challenge to the pipeline.  Lastly, we note that the virus flare-up continues in Europe, and Germany and the Czech Republic reported a record number of cases. The euro surpassed our $1.1290 Fibonacci target and did not find bids until the $1.1265 area in Asian turnover.  The single currency has been in a tight range in Europe, holding above $1.1300.  Initial resistance is seen around $1.1330 now.  A move above yesterday's high, near $1.1385, is needed to lift the tone. We suspect the near big target is closer to $1.10.  Sterling slipped to a three-day low, slightly below $1.34, but shot up to the session high near $1.3375 on the inflation news. However, the momentum was not sustained, and sterling is little changed in late morning European turnover near $1.3430. The euro briefly traded below GBP0.8400 for the first time since March 2020 but snapped back.  An 840 mln euro option at GBP0.8445 expires today and another for about 620 mln euros at GBP0.8450 expires tomorrow.   America US retail sales surged last month, and the 1.7% rise was the best since March.  After slowing in Q3, consumption is off to a strong start in Q4.  Industrial production was also much stronger than expected, rising 1.6% compared with the 0.9% gain anticipated by economists (median, Bloomberg survey).  The US reports October housing starts today, and they are expected to have recovered from the 1.6% decline seen in September. Housing starts fell in Q3 but are seen rising in Q4, encouraged by an easing of some supply chain issues.   In fact, on several fronts, there are preliminary signs that the disruptions are dissipating.  Some reports suggest that the shortage of semiconductor chips may be passed, and US auto sales rose in October for the first time in six months.  Both the EIA and IEA have forecast a more balanced oil market, and some measures of shipping costs have moderated. The Los Angeles port has reportedly reduced the number of empty containers by around a quarter this month as six new sweeper ships have been brought into operation.  In addition, we note that the re-opening of US borders means immigrant workers may begin returning.  There is still much debate, of course, on the extent that the elevated price pressures are the result of supply chain disruptions.  A report by the Bank for International Settlements estimates that without the supply problems, US inflation would be closer to 2.5% and eurozone inflation near 1.5%. President Biden is expected to make his Fed announcements in the next few days, according to reports, but it could slip into early next week.  Powell is still the favorite, and he has Treasury Secretary Yellen's in support.  Yellen warns that action is needed soon on the debt ceiling.  Her efforts may be exhausted early next month.  Lastly, San Francisco Fed President Daly opined she was more bullish on the economy than a year ago.  This seems backward to us.  A year ago, the vaccine was announced, and fiscal stimulus was anticipated after the US election. Going forward, there will be less monetary and fiscal stimulus.  The pent-up demand ("excess savings") is projected to be exhausted by early next year, and, as we have noted, the doubling of the price of oil has preceded the last three recessions in the US. We suspect that there is sufficient stimulus and need to rebuild inventories to sustain reasonably strong growth for the next few quarters, but by the second half of next year, sub-3% growth will return as the norm.  Canada reports October CPI figures today.  The headline is likely to rise to 4.7% from 4.4% in September (Bloomberg median).  However, the base effect points to a further rise this month and December, when in 2020, the CPI rose 0.1% and fell 0.2%, respectively.   The underlying core rates are also increasing.  The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada cautioned about the high degree of uncertainty around potential structural shifts in the labor market that make it challenging to gauge full employment with any degree of confidence.  He pointed to economic areas that still show slack.  The market is expecting the first hike next March/April.  Note that tomorrow, the "Three Amigos" (Biden, Trudeau, and AMLO) meet in the US amid concern that the US "Build Back Better" has strong nationalistic elements, including for electric vehicles.     The US dollar posted an outside up day against the Canadian dollar yesterday, and follow-through buying has lifted it to around CAD1.2585.  At the end of last week, the high set was slightly above CAD1.2600, which close approximates the (50%) retracement of the greenback's decline since the September 20 high near CAD1.29.  The next retracement (61.8%) is found by CAD1.2665.  Still, we expect that a firm CPI report will lend the Loonie some support.  The session low, set in late Asia, near CAD1.2540, may be protected a CAD1.2545 option for $600 mln that expires today.  The greenback is consolidating against the Mexican peso today after rallying yesterday from about MXN20.56 to nearly MXN20.85.  The high from earlier this month was near MXN20.98.  It has not been above MXN21.00 since March.  Initial support is seen around MXN20.60.   Disclaimer
2 Tools Every Trader Needs: FBS Trader app & MetaTrader

2 Tools Every Trader Needs: FBS Trader app & MetaTrader

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 18.11.2021 10:37
MetaTrader & FBS Trader app are two essential tools that every trader should use. Don’t rely only on one, use the power of both as they suit different trader needs. In short, MetaTrader is for trading on a laptop/PC, while the FBS Trader app is perfect for mobile trading. Let’s look at how you can use them! MetaTrader When you want to use a personal computer or laptop for trading, you can choose MetaTrader 4 or 5. They are the two versions of one software program that traders use for opening orders and making an advanced technical analysis. MetaTrader offers different technical tools and allows using trading robots (expert advisors). Besides, you can use the FBS Forex broker app to manage your MetaTrader accounts and control finances. FBS Trader app If you want to trade with your mobile phone or just don’t have an opportunity to trade with a PC at the moment, the FBS Trader app is the best choice. Indeed, we can’t sit in front of our personal computers and monitor trades all day long. What to do? The solution is to have the FBS Trader app on your mobile phone and be able to open/close a trade in just one click wherever you are. It’s handy that all your active orders are gathered in a separate section. Besides, imagine that some economic news comes out that can impact your opened trades but you are not nearby your PC. It wouldn’t be a problem if you have the FBS Trader app on your phone. In addition, this app has a built-in economic calendar that allows traders to follow impactful news and analyze the charts without leaving the app. For example, the Bank of England left the rates unchanged during its meeting on November 4, while it was expected to raise them. As a result, the British pound weakened, and GBP/USD dropped. As you may notice in the chart below, you can add technical indicators in the FBS Trader app. In that case, Bollinger Bands could help a trader to confirm the bearish momentum as bands were moving in a narrow range and the price broke through the lower band. Finally, the FBS Trader app allows you to manage your funds freely without leaving the app. You can deposit and withdraw them easily in a few clicks. All in all, MetaTrader and the FBS Trader app are the perfect combination for trading. Enjoy using them!
Intraday Market Analysis – GBP To Test Resistance

Intraday Market Analysis – GBP To Test Resistance

John Benjamin John Benjamin 18.11.2021 10:37
GBPUSD bounces higher The pound inched higher after the UK’s inflation soared to 4.2% in October. Sentiment remains pessimistic after a botched rebound from the demand zone at 1.3420. However, an oversold RSI has attracted some buying interest. Its bullish divergence suggests a slowdown in the sell-off, prompting momentum traders to take profit and look for the next breakout. The sterling may bounce back if the bulls succeed in keeping it above 1.3380. 1.3530 would be the first hurdle. Otherwise, a bearish breakout would send the pair to 1.3200. USDCAD reaches new high The Canadian dollar fell back after the annual inflation rate matched the consensus. Following the greenback’s rally from the demand zone at 1.2300, a bullish MA cross on the daily chart suggests that the current rebound is picking up steam. As a sign of strong commitment, buyers were eager to keep price action above 1.2480 when the RSI flirted with the oversold area. A break above 1.2600 may trigger an extended rally towards the daily resistance at 1.2760. 1.2540 is fresh support in case of a pullback. USOIL falls through key support WTI crude tumbled after OPEC warned of supply surplus. The rally has stalled after the bulls struggled to lift offers at 85.00. On the daily timeframe, the RSI’s double top in the overbought area indicates an overextension. A break below 79.00 has led to profit-taking and put the long side under pressure. 81.60 is now a fresh resistance from the latest sell-off. The buy-side will need to achieve new highs before they could bring in momentum interest. Failing that, 75.00 is a key floor to keep price action afloat.
Agriculture rally resumes led by coffee, wheat and sugar

Agriculture rally resumes led by coffee, wheat and sugar

Ole Hansen Ole Hansen 18.11.2021 16:35
Summary:  The cost of your breakfast and food in general continues to rise, and following a few months of sideways trading, the Bloomberg Agriculture index, which tracks a basket of major food commodity futures, reached a fresh five-year high this week. Apart from troubled weather reducing available supply there are several other reasons playing a their part and in this update we take a look at some of those, including the reasons why coffee and wheat are two of the hottest food commodities this year. The cost of your breakfast and food in general continues to rise, and following a few months of sideways trading, the Bloomberg Agriculture index, which tracks a basket of major food commodity futures, reached a fresh five-year high this week. The table below shows the commodities with the biggest impact this year has been led by coffee, edible oils, wheat and sugar. There are individual reasons behind the strong gains, but what they all have in common has been a troubled weather year, a post pandemic jump in demand leading to widespread supply chains disruptions and more recently rising production costs via surging fertilizer prices and rising cost of fuels, such as diesel. The La Ninã weather pattern which can lead to floods, drought and cooler temperatures around the world returned to haunt producers this year, and recent forecasts say it will prevail through the coming northern hemisphere winter. In large swathes of South America and parts of North America a La Ninã is normally accompanied by drought, whereas in Australia and parts of Southeast Asia it is often resulting in heavy rainfall. Fertilizer prices have skyrocketed during the past few months as a result of soaring natural gas prices which have forced some European production plants to halt or reduce production. Fertilizer indices tracking prices in North America and Western Europe both trades more than 200% above their five-year averages. The surge has raised concerns farmers may reduce their usage of fertilizers or shift more acres into crops that require less nutrients. A drop in yields could drive prices even higher, thereby worsening already strong food inflation. Supply chain problems/disruptions: We are all familiar with stories about port congestion, lack of containers and surging prices on all the major routes around the world, especially from the production hub in Asia to major ports in Europe and the U.S. These problems began as a result of the pandemic which initially drove a major amount of order cancellations before the world a few months later went on a massive spending spree for consumer goods as the service sector grinded to a halt. These developments together with port disruptions due to continued Covid outbreaks helped trigger disruptions that to this day continue to cause problems for shippers of goods, including many of the food commodities that are transported in special containers. Arabica coffee trades at a nine-year high at $2.38 per pound with the supply outlook looking increasingly tight following an annus horribilis in Brazil where frost and drought dealt a blow to the 2021 crop. In addition to weather, the market also had to deal with lack of shipments and high container rates, surging fertilizer prices and roasters in Europe struggling to source supplies from alternative producers in Columbia and Vietnam. If that wasn’t enough, there is now also a growing risk of civil war in Ethiopia, the world’s third biggest grower of the Arabica bean. What may prove to be even worse over the coming months is that the flowering, or lack of, for the 2022 on-season crop is pointing to another low production year. The break above $2.25, the 2014 high may signal a market running towards $3, a record level that was last seen in 2011. Wheat: From a global food security perspective, the ongoing rally in global wheat prices is an even bigger concern. This week we have seen Chicago wheat futures climb to their highest level in nine years, while here in Europe, the benchmark Paris Milling Wheat contract trades just below €300 per tons, its highest price ever. Just like coffee, weather worries are the main driver, following a poor harvest in North America together with a year-on-year decline in exports from Russia, the world’s largest shipper. These developments have triggered increased demand for European sourced wheat, and with the prospect of another potentially challenging crop year in 2022 caused by weather and high fertilizer costs, some of the major importers have recently been stepping up their pace of purchase in order to cool local food prices, and to secure supplies ahead of winter. With buyers increasingly competing for supplies the market will look for some relief from the upcoming and promise-looking harvests in Argentina and Australia, taking place from now until January. One of the most actively traded ETF tracking the agriculture sector, the Invesco DB Agriculture Fund, broke higher last week to reach a four-year high. The index tracks the performance of 11 major futures markets spread across grains, softs and livestock. Source: Saxo Group
Investors Expect High Inflation. Golden Inquisition Ahead?

Investors Expect High Inflation. Golden Inquisition Ahead?

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 18.11.2021 15:33
  Inflation expectations reached a record high. Is gold preparing a counterattack to punish gold bears? In a , nobody expects the Spanish inquisition. In the current marketplace, everyone expects high inflation. As the chart below shows, the inflation expectations embedded in US Treasury yields have recently risen to the highest level since the series began in 2003. Houston, we have a problem, an unidentified object is flying to the moon! The 5-year breakeven inflation rate, which is the difference between the yields on ordinary Treasury bonds and inflation-protected Treasuries with the same maturity, soared to 2.76% on Monday. Meanwhile, the 10-year breakeven inflation rate surged to 3.17%. The numbers show the Treasury market’s measure of average CPI annual inflation rates over five and ten years, respectively. The chart is devastating for the Fed’s reputation if there’s anything left. You probably remember how the US central bank calmed investors, saying that we shouldn’t worry about inflation because inflation expectations are well-anchored. No, they don’t! Of course, the current inflation expectations oscillate around 3%, so they indicate that the bond market is anticipating a pullback in the inflation rate from its current level. Nevertheless, the average of 3% over ten or even just five years would be much above the Fed’s target of 2% and would be detrimental for savers in particular, and the US economy in general. I’ve already shown you market-based inflation expectations, which are relatively relaxed, but please take a look at the chart below, which displays the consumer expectations measured by the New York Fed’s surveys. As one can see, the median inflation expectations at the one-year horizon jumped 0.4 percentage point in October, to 5.7%. So much for the inflation expectations remaining under control!   Implications for Gold Surging inflation expectations are positive for the gold market. They should lower real interest rates and strengthen inflationary worries. This is because the destabilized inflation expectations may erode the confidence in the US dollar and boost inflation in the future. So, gold could gain as both an inflation hedge and a safe haven. And, importantly, the enlightened Fed is likely to remain well behind the curve in setting its monetary policy. This is even more probable if President Biden appoints Lael Brainard as the new Fed Chair. She is considered a dove, even more dovish than Powell, so if Brainard replaces him, investors should expect to see interest rates staying lower for longer. So, inflation expectations and actual inflation could go even higher. Hence, the dovish Fed combined with high inflation (and a slowdown in GDP growth) creates an excellent environment for gold to continue its rally. After all, the yellow metal has broken out after several months of consolidation (as the chart below shows), so the near future seems to be brighter. There are, of course, some threats for gold, as risks are always present. If the US dollar continues to strengthen and the real interests rebound, gold may struggle. But, after the recent change, the sentiment seems to remain positive. Anyway, I would like to return to the market-based inflation expectations and the famous Monty Python sketch. With an inflation rate of 3%, which is the number indicated by the bond market, the capital will halve in value in just 24 years! So, maybe it would be a too-far-reaching analogy, but Monty Python inquisitors wanted to use a rack to torture heretics by slowly increasing the strain on their limbs and causing excruciating physical pain (luckily, they were not the most effective inquisitors!). Meanwhile, inflation hits savers by slowly decreasing the purchasing power of money and causing significant financial pain. With the inflation rate at about 6%, hedging against inflation is a no-brainer. It’s a matter of financial self-defense! You don’t have to use gold for this purpose – but you definitely can. After several disappointing months, and the lack of gold’s reaction to inflation, something changed, and gold has managed to break out above $1,800. We will see how it goes on. I will feel more confident about the strength of the recent rally when gold rises above $1,900. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Like Clockwork

Like Clockwork

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 18.11.2021 15:44
S&P 500 took a little breather, and sideways trading with a bullish slant goes on unchecked. Credit markets have partially turned, and I‘m looking for some risk appetite returning to HYG and VTV. Any modest improvement in market breadth would thus underpin stocks, and not even my narrow overnight downswing target of yesterday may be triggered. The banking sector is internally strong and resilient, which makes the bulls the more favored party than if judged by looking at the index price action only. Consumer discretionaries outperformance of staples confirms that too. When it comes to gold and silver: (…) Faced with the dog and pony debt ceiling show, precious metals dips are being bought – and relatively swiftly. What I‘m still looking for to kick in to a greater degree than resilience to selling attempts, is the commodities upswing that would help base metals and energy higher. These bull runs are far from over – it ain‘t frothy at the moment as the comparison of several oil stocks reveals. Precious metals dip has been swiftly reversed, and it‘s just oil and copper that can cause short-term wrinkles. Both downswings look as seriously overdone, and more of a reaction to resilient dollar than anything else. In this light, gold and silver surge is presaging renewed commodities run, which is waiting for the greenback to roll over (first). And that looks tied to fresh debt issuance and debt ceiling resolution – Dec is almost knocking on the door while inflation expectations are about to remain very elevated. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bulls continue holding the upper hand, and yesterday‘s rising volume isn‘t a problem in the least. Dips remain to be bought, and it‘s all a question of entry point and holding period. Credit Markets Credit markets stabilization is approaching, and yields don‘t look to be holding S&P 500, Russell 2000 or emerging markets down for too long. Especially the EEM performance highlights upcoming dollar woes. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver decline was promptly reversed, and the lower volume isn‘t an immediate problem – it merely warns of a little more, mostly sideways consolidation before another push higher. PMs bull run is on! Crude Oil Crude oil bulls could very well be capitulating here – yesterday‘s downswing was exaggerated any way examined. Better days in oil are closer than generally appreciated. Copper The copper setback got likewise extended, and the underperformance of both CRB Index and other base metals is a warning sign. One that I‘m not taking as seriously – the red metal is likely to reverse higher, and start performing along the lines of other commodities. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum bears may be slowing down here, but I wouldn‘t be surprised if the selling wasn‘t yet over. We‘re pausing at the moment, and in no way topping out. Summary S&P 500 bulls keep banishing the shallow correction risks, leveling the very short-term playing field. The credit markets non-confirmation is probably in its latter stages, and stock market internals favor the slow grind higher to continue. Precious metals remain my top pick over the coming weeks, and these would be followed by commodities once the dollar truly stalls. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Euro Bounces Back, but The Turkish Lira Remains Unloved

Euro Bounces Back, but The Turkish Lira Remains Unloved

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 18.11.2021 15:17
Overview:  The US dollar's sharp upside momentum stalled yesterday near JPY115 and after the euro met (and surpassed) a key retracement level slightly below $1.1300.  Led by the Antipodean currencies today, the greenback is mostly trading with a heavier bias.  Among the majors, helped by a steadying of US yields, the yen is soft.  In the emerging market space, the Turkish lira continues its headlong plunge while the yuan softened and the Mexican peso is off.  Hungary's central bank surprised with a 70 bp hike in the one-week deposit rate.  The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is posting a small gain through the European morning.  Disappointing tech results in China (Baidu and Bilibili) weighed on Chinese shares, but most markets in the region fell but Australia and Taiwan.  Europe's Stoxx 600 is struggling to extend the six-day advance.  US futures are also a little firmer.  After yesterday's four basis point pullback, the US 10-year yield is little changed near 1.58%.  European yields are 1-2 bp lower.  Gold remains within Tuesday's range (~$1850-$1877), but the moment seen earlier last week has faded, and the yellow metal is trading choppily in a consolidative phase.  The prospect of a coordinated sale of oil after China's announced it would tap its reserves for the second time saw the January WTI contract fall to $76.45, its lowest level since early October. Still, the price has stabilized in the European morning around $77 a barrel.  The benchmark European natural gas contract (Netherlands) has extended yesterday's pullback.  It settled a little below 75 euros last week, and after two days of declines, it is above 92 euros.  Iron ore is also falling for a second session and is now lower on the week.  Note that it settled October a little above $104 and is now around $86.40. Copper is lower for the fourth consecutive session.  It is trading around $424, off $20.5 this week.   Asia Pacific  Japan is expected to unveil the much-awaited supplemental budget tomorrow.  Prime Minister Kishida will get one bite of the proverbial apple, and he is expected to go big.  Talk of the size of the overall package has risen in recent days.  The Nikkei seemed to suggest a JPY79 trillion (~$690 bln) effort, while others report something on the magnitude of JPY56 trillion.  Still, it is recognized that part of the budget will include funds that were earmarked under previous budgets, which have not been spent.  The clear water is seen around JPY32 trillion.  Japan is one of the few countries that will provide new fiscal support.   New Zealand's central bank meets next week.  It is widely expected to hike rates for the second time in the cycle.   The swaps market has 200 bp of tightening priced in for the next 12 months.  The cash rate stands at 50 bp.  Earlier today, the central bank reported that the two-year inflation expectations (business survey)  rose to 2.96% in Q4 from 2.27% in Q3.  It is the highest in a decade.  The one-year expectation rose to 3.7% from 3.02%.  Still, with other countries slower to raise rates, a 50 bp move may not be necessary.  The Kiwi rose almost 4% last month and has given back nearly half so far in November.  Separately, the Philippines and Indonesia central banks met and left rates steady as expected.   The dollar posted a key reversal against the yen yesterday.  It made a new high for the move, a few pips below JPY115.00, and proceeded to sell-off and close (slightly) below Tuesday's low.  However, follow-through selling has been limited, and the greenback is trading firmly but may be absorbing sales related to the $1.34 bln in options in the JPY114.20-JPY114.25 area that expire today.  The Australian dollar initially extended its losses to almost $0.7250, where a A$575 mln option expires today. However, since early in the Asian session, it has posted corrective upticks and looks set to challenge yesterday's high and five-day moving average a little above $0.7300.   The Chinese yuan appears to have begun consolidating.  It remains in the range set on Tuesday that saw the dollar trade roughly between CNY6.3670 and CNY6.3965.  The small gain is the third this week.  The PBOC fix was at CNY6.3803, a bit firmer compared with expectations (CNY6.3786 in the Bloomberg survey) than seen recently.  Note that there is a $1 bln option at CNY6.3830 that expires today.   Europe The auto industry in Europe remained under pressure last month, though the US reported its first increase in sales in six months.  New car registration in Europe, including the UK, is a proxy for sales.  They tumbled by slightly more than 30% year-over-year in October.  This is considerably weaker than expected and is the poorest since May 2020.  The shortage of semiconductors is the likely culprit, and there are some signs of improvement.  The EC will propose modest tweaks in rules about how funds outside of its borders (UK) can be managed while avoiding more dramatic changes.   Draft proposals call for at least two full-time senior managers in the EU and for regulators to be notified when most of their assets are managed outside the EU.  These seem quite minor and unlikely to disrupt the UK fund business.  Earlier this month, the EU Commissioner for Financial Services indicated that temporary waivers would be granted to allow EU banks and money managers to clear trades in the UK. Meanwhile, the dispute over fishing appears to be worsening (Denmark complaining, not just France), and the UK continues to threaten to invoke Article 16.  Former Prime Minister Blair says he will propose a solution to the dispute over the Northern Ireland Protocol in the coming days.  Hungary delivered a 30 bp hike in the base rate earlier this week, which now stands at 2.10%.  It warned that it could make a separate decision on its one-week deposit rate.  It did so today, hiking it 70 bp to 2.50%.  It is a hawkish move that sent the forint higher.  Separately, as widely expected, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey cut the one-week repo rate 100 bps to 15%. As a result, the lira is weaker for the eighth consecutive session.  The lira's weakness not only fuels inflation but also will challenge companies and banks with foreign exchange exposure.  The dollar finished last month near TRY9.60 and after the rate hike, pushed above TRY10.97 before stabilizing.   The euro overshot the (61.8%) retracement target of the rally that took it from near $1.0640 in March 2020 to high on January 6, around $1.2350.  That retracement target was about $1.1290, and the euro fell to around $1.1265 yesterday. It recovered to new session highs early in North America yesterday (~$1.1330), leaving bullish hammer candlestick, and follow-through buying lifted it to $1.1345 today.  The combination of higher inflation and stronger retail sales this week have helped sterling to recover.  It had traded near $1.3350 at the end of last week and has barely traded below $1.34 this week.  Indeed, sterling is rising today for the fifth consecutive session, the longest advance in nearly seven months.  It poked above $1.35, where an option for about GBP345 mln will expire today.  A convincing move above $1.3515 could signal another cent advance.  The euro slipped to below GBP0.8385 today before recovering.  It is testing the GBP0.8400, which holds options for 1.1 bln euros that also expires today.   America Leave aside the gaffes by President Biden over Taiwan.  Bloomberg counts four such verbal blunders that have required official walk back or explanation or clarification.  Reports indicate that Biden probed Xi about oil sales.  China has intervened in the commodities (industrial metals) and crude oil market recently.  Today it indicated it will provide more oil from its strategic reserves.  The September is action 7.1 mln barrels, according to reports, and privately sold more.  It is unclear whether today's sales were planned or grew out of the "virtual summit."  Still, it puts the ball back into the US court.  If the US does not sell or lend oil from its strategic reserves, it will look bad after China's move.  On the other hand, its own agency (EIA) projects that it may not be needed as oil will be in oversupply shortly.  Moreover, the pain for consumers is coming from gasoline prices, not oil per se.  Drawing down strategic reserves may not help the gasoline market.  Apparently, Japan has been approached by the US about coordinating the release of oil, though Europe was not.  The US reports weekly initial jobless claims today.  They have fallen for six consecutive weeks, and at 267k, it is the lowest since the pandemic struck.   That said, at the end of 2019, there were below 220k.  The Philadelphia and Kansas City Feds publish their November survey results.  Both surprised last month, with the former on the downside and the latter on the upside.  This time it may be the other way around, with the Philly survey showing strength and the KC survey softer.  Canada reports its monthly portfolio flow data ahead of tomorrow's retail sales report.  Mexico and Brazil have light economic calendars.   Canada's Prime Minister Trudeau and Mexico's President AMLO visit Washington today for the North America's Leaders Summit.  There is tension among the "three amigos."  The Build Back Better US initiative contains several elements that favor American producers. A key one is that substantial tax break for Americans buying electric vehicles if they are made in the US.  This would seem to put Canada and Mexico at a disadvantage, given the integration of the auto sector on a continental basis. Mexico and Canada are also concerned that the Biden Administration's interpretation of the domestic content requirement in the USMCA treaty is also narrow and puts them at a disadvantage.   Canada is also concerned about the pipelines after Biden nixed the Keystone Pipeline in one of his first acts in office, and the Line 5 pipeline is being challenged by Michigan.  The US, and to a less extent, Canada, is worried about the efforts by AMLO to increase the power of the state sector energy companies (oil and electricity), deterring private sector efforts.  The US may try pressing against this on environmental grounds.  Climate and immigration are reportedly on the top of today's agenda.  The US dollar reversed higher against the Canadian dollar on Tuesday, posting an outside up day.  Follow-through buying yesterday lifted the greenback a little above CAD1.2620.  It ticked ever so slightly higher today but has come back offered.  Support is seen in the CAD1.2555-CAD1.2575 area.  The $1.04 bln option at CAD1.25 that expires today is too far away to be impactful. Meanwhile, the US dollar remains within Tuesday's range against the Mexican peso (~MXN20.56-MXN20.85).  This range looks set to hold today.   Disclaimer
It’s the most important job in finance...

It’s the most important job in finance...

Chris Weston Chris Weston 19.11.2021 08:03
It’s the most important job in finance, but the focus falls on whether Jerome Powell, whose term as Fed Chair expires in Feb 2022, is reappointed or whether he is replaced by Lael Brainard, or perhaps even Raphael Bostic. The earlier talk was this decision was slated before Thanksgiving (25 Nov), but the WSJ reported this week that the nomination could be announced over this weekend. The question then of gapping risk for the Monday open is one traders should consider. As the well-used term goes, markets hate uncertainty – and a Brainard appointment, at a time of impending monetary policy change, represents a small rise in uncertainty that many in the market could do without – well, except for those who like volatility which is most short-term traders. A wild December Still, my base case is we are headed into a period of higher volatility regardless, with a wild December ahead of us. Where we see the US Treasury exhausting measures by mid-December and the US debt ceiling potentially becoming problematic, just as the FOMC meeting (16 Dec) sees the central bank likely announce they are accelerating the pace of tapering from $15b to $20-$25b. Expectations of volatility from the Fed meeting should increase after the Nov non-farm payrolls (4 Dec) and then the Nov CPI print (11 Dec) – the latter a genuinely market-moving event. With the Fed due to ramp up the pace of tapering and potentially closing out its QE program far earlier than prior calls for mid-2022, it sets us up for the Fed to start hiking in July or August. The markets currently price just over two hikes over the coming 12 months. Is this the time to change captain? The concern the market naturally holds then is whether this is really the time to be changing the captain of the ship when we’re charging towards choppy waters? And, if the public have such great disdain for inflation - and US inflation is only getting hotter - why replace Powell with someone who most know is slightly more dovish? Brainard, in some market participants minds, could further slow the reaction function of the Fed and rising talk of the Fed being “behind the curve” could see volatility rise. OK, we know Brainard is a Democrat, and we know she is genuine Fed chair material, but when inflation is probably the number one point of contention and the Mid-term elections is in our sights, surely it makes little sense to allow inflation to run even hotter. A Brainard appointment may change the focus to one where the employment mandate is aimed at a greater inclusion – so, despite the headline employment rate headed to 4% in Q1 22, there could be a shift towards more targeted groups and at a simplistic level that could mean keeping rates lower for longer. In some eyes, when inflation is running hot, not just through supply-side issues, but through demand and wages, then rates simply need to go higher, and Powell is more likely to address this sooner. I am not so sure I share the market’s concerns, and I feel Brainard would be no less dovish than Powell, but this is a widely held view in certain circles. Betting sites have Powell as the firm favourite We can see the odds of Brainard getting the gig have beefed up after what was seen as a very positive meeting with the President recently. And we know there have been calls for change at the helm given the recent spate of controversial trading cases at the Fed. While progressives want tougher financial regulation and a Fed that can use policy to address climate change. Despite Brainard’s odds increasing, the market is clearly leaning that Powell gets a second term, and for what it’s worth, I think he should get the gig. The betting markets have Powell as chair at 76% (69% on Predicit) and that is fair, but there is a non-immaterial chance that we do see Biden nominate Brainard, so it certainly needs monitoring. If Lael Brainard does get nominated then the first place to look is short-term US Treasuries, and I’d expect 2-year yields to fall 3-4bp. If yields drop then the USD should follow, especially vs higher beta plays (AUD, NZD, MXN), while we may see some selling in US500 and US2000, with outperformance seen in the NAS100. Gold would probably find buyers and may even take out the recent highs of $1870. Given recent moves in rates and the bull move in USD, I’d argue the market is strongly leaning on a Powell reappointment, so news of him getting the gig may cause limited moves on open – if we do indeed see it announced this weekend. Still, it’s a risk to monitor – but the real issue remains to navigate the event risk in December in what is typically a period of lower participation.
Monthly Macro Outlook: The transitory narrative continues to fall apart

Monthly Macro Outlook: The transitory narrative continues to fall apart

Christopher Dembik Christopher Dembik 19.11.2021 09:25
Summary:  The economist consensus anticipates inflation will start falling from early next year. We disagree. We consider the market to be too complacent regarding upside risks to the inflation outlook. The great awakening of workers and the steady rent increase (for the United States) are two of the factors which are likely to maintain inflation uncomfortably high into 2022, in our view. October CPI figures released earlier this week confirm that inflationary pressures may last longer than initially expected. Inflation reached levels which have not been seen for decades in the United Kingdom (+4.2% YoY), in the eurozone (+4.1% YoY) and in Canada (+4.7% YoY). In Canada, the jump in inflation is the strongest recorded in 18 years. For now, investors are confident. They believe the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank’s narrative that inflation will start to fall from early next year. This is far from certain, in our view. From supply chain bottlenecks to energy prices, everything suggests that inflationary pressures are far from over. Expect energy prices to continue increasing as temperatures will drop in Europe from next week onwards. This will weigh on November CPI data which will be released next month. The peak in inflation has not been reached. We fear investors are too complacent regarding upside risks to the inflation outlook. Every economic theory says inflation will be above 2% next year : ·         The Phillips curve is alive and well : workers are demanding higher salaries, amongst other advantages and their expectations are rising. ·         Monetarism : the global economy is characterized by large deposits, desire to spend and to convert cash into real assets. ·         Commitment approach : the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central bank (ECB) have a dovish bias. This is confirmed by their new inflation strategy (symmetric 2% inflation target over the medium term for the ECB and inflation of 2% over the longer run for the Fed). ·         Fiscal approach : high public debt and fiscal dominance (central banks need to remain dominant market players in the bond market to avoid a sharp increase in interest rates). ·         Supply-side approach : supply bottlenecks due to the zero Covid policy in China and central banks’ trade off higher inflation for a speedier economic recovery (the ECB especially). ·         Green transition : this is basically a tax on consumers. What has changed ? The wage-price spiral has started. In countries where the labor market is tight, workers are asking for higher salaries. In the United States, the manufacturer John Deere increased salaries significantly : +10% this year and +5% in 2023 and in 2025. It also agreed to a 3% bonus on even years to all employees, for instance. But this is happening in countries where the unemployment rate is high too. In France, the unemployment rate is falling. But it remains comparatively elevated at 7.6% in the third quarter. Earlier this week, the French Minister of Economy, Bruno Le Maire, called for higher salaries in the hospitality industry. A survey by the public investment bank BPI and the pro-business institute Rexecode show that 26% of small and medium companies are forced to propose higher salaries to find employees. Those which are reluctant choose to reduce business activity. The pandemic has fueled a great awakening of workers, in our view. They are demanding more : better job conditions, higher wages, more flexibility and purpose from work. This is more noticeable in countries facing labor shortage. But it is also visible in all the other developed economies to a variable extent.   U.S. steady rent increase is a game-changer. Until now, supply bottlenecks were the main driver behind the jump in prices. Now, housing costs (which represent about a third of living cost) and prices in the service sector are accelerating too. The rental market is tight, with low vacancy rates and a limited stock of available rentals. Expect rents to move upward in the coming months. According to official figures, owner’s equivalent rent, a measure of what homeowners believe their properties would rent for, rose 3.1% YoY in October. This certainly underestimates the real evolution of rents. Based on data reported by real estate agents at national level, the increase is between 7% and 15% YoY. All in all, this reinforces the view that inflationary pressures are proving more persistent than expected. The moment of truth : Expect investors not to question much the official narrative that inflation is transitory, for now. But if inflation does not decrease from 2022 onwards, investors will have to adjust their portfolio to an environment of more persistent inflation than initially anticipated. This may lead to market turmoil. In the interim, enjoy the Santa Claus rally which has started very early this year. The new inflation regime in the United States
Intraday Market Analysis – USD In Pullback Mode

Intraday Market Analysis – USD In Pullback Mode

John Benjamin John Benjamin 19.11.2021 09:15
USDCHF seeks support The US dollar stalled after weekly jobless claims came in higher than expected. The pair’s attempt above the daily resistance at 0.9310 suggests that the bulls may have gained the upper hand. Intraday buyers’ profit-taking led by the RSI’s overbought situation has caused a limited pullback. Buyers may see dips as an opportunity to get in at a discount. Bids could be around the resistance-turned-support at 0.9235. 0.9330 is a fresh resistance. And its breach may trigger an extended rally towards last April’s peak at 0.9450. NZDUSD bounces off demand area The New Zealand dollar inches higher as traders are positioning for an RBNZ rate hike next week. From the daily chart’s perspective, the pair has bounced off the demand zone near the psychological level of 0.7000. A bullish RSI divergence indicates a slowdown in the bearish momentum, a sign that sentiment could be turning around. An oversold RSI has attracted buying interest. A rally above 0.7060 would prompt sellers to cover, paving the way for a recovery towards 0.7175. A break below 0.6980 may drive the kiwi to 0.6900. US30 struggles to rally back The Dow Jones is under pressure as investors fear that inflation could choke off economic recovery. The index has been struggling to reclaim the landmark 36000, which coincides with the 20-day moving average. The faded rebound suggests exhaustion after a month-long breakneck rally. The RSI’s double-dip into the oversold area has attracted buying interest. Though buyers may stay cautious unless the first resistance at 36180 is lifted. On the downside, the previous peak at 35500 has turned into the next support.
The Wild Card Is Back

The Wild Card Is Back

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 19.11.2021 15:58
S&P 500 rose, once again driven by tech and not value. That‘s still defensive, mirroring the weak credit markets posture. While waiting for bonds to turn – not that there wouldn‘t be an optimistic HYG open yesterday – the Austria lockdown news sent markets into a tailspin, the fear being good part of Europe would follow suit rather sooner than later. Oil has taken the crown of panicked selling, stocks held up better, and precious metals weren‘t changed much. Sure, any crippling of European economic activity would take a toll at the most sensitive commodities, but in light of energy policies across much of the Western world, it‘s my view that oil prices would be affected only in the short-term. This isn‘t a repeat of the Apr 2020 liquidation sending black gold negative. Rest of the world would be happy to step in, U.S. included, as we‘re entering winter with comparatively very low stockpiles from oil to copper – and don‘t get me started on silver. If you want green economy, these metals are essential, and oil is still in huge demand in the interim. Fed money printing hasn‘t vanished, debt ceiling awaits, and dollar is so far still solidly underpinned. Banking sector and emerging markets performance isn‘t panicky, but some time for stocks to come back at ATHs, is needed. Precious metals resilience is encouraging for commodities, which need the most time to recover (eyes on energy). Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bulls have the upper hand, but short-term volatility and uncertainty is creeping in. Still, there is no sinking the bull right here, right now. Credit Markets Tentative signs of credit markets stabilization are here, and HYG turnaround to last, is the missing sign. I‘m though not looking for risk-off slant to disappear, which would slow down the coming rise in yields. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver are still consolidating, and the more time passes at current levels, the less opportunity the bears have. The chart remains very bullish as precious metals are anticipating inflation to come. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls are facing spanner in the works today, and it‘s my view the sellers wouldn‘t get too far. I‘m looking at oil sector to presage that. Copper The copper setback was soundly bought, and commodities hardly sold off, the same for other base metals. I still like the chart posture – favors the bulls. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum bears took the gauntlet, and another opportunity to pause might be here. I‘m not yet optimistic prices would hold out before the upleg resumes. Summary S&P 500 bulls keep hanging in there, as if waiting for bonds to come to their senses. The credit markets non-confirmation being probably in its latter stages, was my yesterday‘s point – but with corona panic returning, all short-term bets are off. Looking at the big picture, energy hasn‘t been fixed, precious metals are set to rise sharply, and inflation hasn‘t yet knocked off stocks or the real economy. Look for VIX to keep rising from the current 17.50 level. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 21 November 2021

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 21 November 2021

Callum Thomas Callum Thomas 22.11.2021 09:40
The S&P500 ChartStorm is a selection of 10 charts which I hand pick from around the web and post on Twitter. The purpose of this post is to add extra color and commentary around the charts. The charts focus on the S&P500 (US equities); and the various forces and factors that influence the outlook - with the aim of bringing insight and perspective. Hope you enjoy! p.s. if you haven’t already, subscribe (free) to receive the ChartStorm direct to your inbox, so you don’t miss out on any charts (you never know which one could change the whole perspective!) Subscribe Now 1. S&P 500 Seasonality Chart: It’s everyone’s favorite chart updated again (maybe for the last time this year?). The S&P500 has been sticking to the seasonality script through most of this year… makes me think about Murphy’s Law tho - maybe the market will start to improvise and go off-script? Either way, the next few weeks seasonally look like sideways action. Source: @topdowncharts 2. Volatility Seasonality: A twist on the previous chart — same concept, but this time with implied volatility. I find it interesting to note that the VIX has actually been a bit lower than usual for this time of the year (and trending up short-term…). One last VIX spike before year-end? Source: @topdowncharts 3. Stockmarket Statistics: What happens after the market goes up a “crazy overheated” 20%+ over the course of a year? More Gains. Historically most of the time if the market closed up 20%+ for the year, the next year was also positive (84% of the time). As of writing, the market is up some 27% YTD (albeit, this year ain't over yet!). Source: @RyanDetrick 4. Bad Breadth? Fully 1/3rd of stocks are in a downtrend. (defined as trading below their respective 200dma) Will this bearish divergence be a problem? Source: Index Indicators 5. GAARP vs GAAAP: On this metric, growth stocks are the most expensive ever vs value stocks. So it begs the question… Growth at a reasonable price? or Growth at *any* price? (but then again, who defines what "reasonable" is in a market like this!) Source: @TheOneDave 6. Low Energy: Energy stocks are attempting to turn the corner vs the rest of the market, but face high hurdles from the raging tech bull market, rise of ESG investing and regulatory/political hurdles, not to mention commodity market volatility. What comes down must go up? (or something else?) Source: @dissectmarkets 7. Buybacks Back: New all-time high for buybacks in Q3 (with 95% reported). Always makes me wonder these trends — you see the majority of buybacks occurring near market peaks… i.e. when valuations are extreme expensive. The opposite of value investing: buy more when its expensive, buy less when it’s cheap — seems like upside-down logic to me, but then again I am a simple man. Source: @hsilverb 8. Payout Ratio: As an interesting follow-on to the ATH in buybacks/dividends, it’s interesting to note that the dividend payout ratio is actually below average... Scope to return more cash to investors? Source: @ChrisDagnes 9. Buffett Indicator: Looks like this indicator has reached a permanently higher plateau! (kidding of course - echoing the famous last words of Irving Fisher back in 1929) Interesting stat to note: to make this indicator as cheap as where it got to during the financial crisis lows the market would need to fall over 70%. Definitely not a prediction, but interesting nonetheless. I would say I have multiple quibbles with this indicator, I think CAPE and ERP are better valuation metrics, but that’s a topic for another day. Source: @KailashConcepts 10. Buffett the Compounder: Speaking of Buffett, a lesson in compounding. Source: @DividendGrowth Thanks for following, I appreciate your interest! !! BONUS CHART: total stockmarket leverage >> Click through to the ChartStorm Substack to see the bonus chart section https://chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-21-november                   Follow us on: Substack https://topdowncharts.substack.com/ LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/company/topdown-charts Twitter http://www.twitter.com/topdowncharts
Global Markets In Times Of Affection Of Situation In Eastern Europe

On the radar this week...

Chris Weston Chris Weston 22.11.2021 08:18
Powell vs Brainard Fed chair nomination  Covid trends and restrictions in Europe US core PCE inflation (Thursday at 2 am AEDT) RBNZ and Riksbank central bank meeting US cash markets shut Thursday for Thanksgiving (Pepperstone US equity indices still open)  Eurozone PMI (Tuesday 20:00aedt) – ECB speakers in play BoE speakers to drive the GBP – will they cast doubt on a December hike? With Covid risks on the rise in Europe and ultimately restrictions being implemented we’ve seen renewed selling interest in the EUR, and the oil-exporting currencies (NOK, CAD, MXN). Certainly, the NOK was the weakest G10 currency last week, and GBPNOK has been a great long position – a pair to trade this week, but consider it is up for 9 straight days and has appreciated 5.2% since late October.  I questioned last week if the divergence in EURCHF plays out, and the break of 1.05 negates that, suggesting staying short this cross for now as the CHF is still a preferred safe-haven.  EURUSD has been in free-fall EURUSD has been in free-fall and will likely get the lion’s share of attention from clients looking for a play on growing restrictions and tensions across Europe. The pair has lost 3.5% since rejecting the 50-day MA on 28 Oct and has consistently been printing lower lows since May – predominantly driven by central bank divergence and a growing premium of 2-year US Treasuries over German 2yr - with the spread blowing out from 78bp to 128bp, in favour of USD. For momentum, trend followers and tactical traders, short EUR remains attractive here.  It will be interesting to see if we see any pickup in shorting activity in EU equities – notably the GER40, with the German govt warning of lockdowns ahead. A market at all-time highs (like the GER40) is a tough one to short, but if this starts to roll over then I’d go along for a day trade. There is a raft of ECB speakers also to focus on, notably with President Lagarde due to speak on Friday.  Playing restrictions through crude While we can play crude moves in the FX, equity and ETF space, outright shorts in crude have been looking compelling. Although we see SpotCrude now sitting on huge horizontal support and a break here brings in the 50-day MA. Of course, as oil and gasoline fall, the prospect of a release of the SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserves) diminishes, however, the Biden administration could use this move lower move to their advantage and capitalize to keep the pressure on.  (SpotCrude daily) A rise in restrictions also means market neutral strategies (long/short) should continue to work, and long tech/short energy has been popular. We can express this in our ETF complex, with the XOP ETF (oil and gas explorers) -8.1% last week and that works as a high beta short leg. Long IUSG (growth) or the QQQ ETF against this would be a good proxy on the opposing leg. In fact, looking at the moves in Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet and Amazon, and we can see these ‘safe haven’ stocks are working well again, as is Tesla although for different reasons.  Stocks for the trend-followers For the ‘buy strong’ crowd, I have scanned our equity universe for names above both their 5- and 20-day MA AND at 52-week highs. Pull up a daily chart of any of these names - they should nearly always start at the bottom left, and end top right. Playing the RBNZ meeting tactically By way of event risks, the RBNZ meeting (Wed 12:00 AEDT) is one of the more interesting events to focus on. Will the RBNZ raise by 25bp or 50bp? That is the question, and of 19 calls from economists (surveyed by Bloomberg) we see 17 calling for a 25bp hike – yet the markets are fully pricing not just a 25bp hike but a 43% chance of 50bp – from a very simplistic perceptive if the RBNZ hike by ‘just’ 25bp, choosing a path of least regret, then we could see a quick 25- to 30-pip move lower in the NZD. The focus then turns to the outlook and whether the 8 further hikes priced over the coming 12 months seems to be one shared by the RBNZ.  Traders have been keen to play NZD strength via AUD, as it is more a relative play and doesn’t carry the risk on/off vibe, which you get with the USD and JPY. I’d be using strength in AUDNZD as an opportunity to initiate shorts, especially with views that RBNZ Gov Orr could talk up the possibility of inter-meeting rate hikes.  GBP to be guided by the BoE Chief The GBP is always a play clients gravitate to, with GBPUSD and EURGBP always two of the most actively traded instruments in our universe. A 15bp hike is priced for the 16 Dec BoE meeting after last week’s UK employment and inflation data, but consider we also get UK PMI data (Tuesday 20:30 AEDT), and arguably, more importantly, speeches from BoE Governor Bailey and chief economist Huw Pill – perhaps this time around expectations of hikes can be better guided – although, a bit of uncertainty into central bank meetings is very pre-2008 and makes things a little spicy/interesting.  (BoE speakers this week) GBPUSD 1-week implied volatility is hardly screaming movement, and at 6.5% sits at the 10th percentile of its 12-month range. The implied move is close to 130pips, so the range at this juncture (with a 68.2% level of confidence), although I multiple this by 0.8 to get closer to the options breakeven rate. So at this stage, 100 pips (higher or lower) is the sort of move the street is looking for over the coming five days, putting a range of 1.3557 to 1.3349 in play – one for the mean reversion players. Personally, I would let it run a bit as that volatility seems a little low, and a break of 1.3400 could see volatility pick up. I’d certainly be looking for downside if that gave way.  Happy trading.
We Might Say Next FED Moves Are Not Obvious As Some Factors Differentiate Circumstances

Silver, shrugging off attacks

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 20.11.2021 13:32
Weekly chart, Silver in US-Dollar, strong along gold: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 20th, 2021. The weekly chart illustrates price behavior over the last 15 months. Silver prices are trading near the center of the sideways range. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart, rumors shrugged off: Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 20th, 2021. The weekly chart of gold isn’t much different from where prices stand. In short, there is no evidence that gold has lost its luster. Otherwise, we would see silver trading in a relationship much lower. Rumors are just that – rumors! Silver is shrugging them off. Silver in US-Dollar, quarterly chart, room to go: Silver in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of November 20th, 2021. A historical review with a quarterly chart over the last eighteen years reveals that silver prices can sustain extreme extensions from the mean (yellow line) for extended periods. Using the extreme of the second quarter in 2011 as a projective measurement (orange vertical line) for an upcoming target would provide for a price target more than 10% above all-time highs at US$56. In addition, the chart shows that we find ourselves in a strong quarter so far, which is in alignment with cyclical probabilities. Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, prepping the play: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 20th, 2021. Trade setup Let us return to the weekly time frame for a possible low-risk entry scenario with this target in mind.We find a supply zone based on fractal transactional volume analysis near the price of US$24.11 and US$22.65. Both attractive entry zones for excellent risk/reward-ratio plays.   Phase 1 drilling program at Guigui discovered not only the largest intrusive ever found in the district, but it’s the first mineralized skarn ever seen in Guigui! Silver, shrugging off attacks: It will not be rumors, doubts, and speculations that will be the catalyst for silvers’ success or failure. It isn’t a question of “if,” but just a question of “when” we will see the next massive price advance in this precious metal. The odds are stacked too much in favor of a continued price movement up that the long-term investor should let doubts allow for diverging from a splendid opportunity to partake in wealth preservation and a very profitable way to participate in a chance rarely presented this prominent. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|November 20th, 2021|Tags: Crack-Up-Boom, Gold, Gold bullish, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
US Thanksgiving week features key Wednesday event risks

US Thanksgiving week features key Wednesday event risks

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 22.11.2021 10:56
Summary:  Today we look at the lay of the equity market coming into this week, where we continue to note considerable market divergences, recapping the points from Friday, including the narrow market rally. We also look at whether credit spreads for high yield corporates are finally starting to deserve some attention. Focus in commodities on oil and especially gold this week as it is do-or-die time for bullish newcomers after the recent rally spike. The week ahead is a short one for US-based traders, with the Fed Chair nomination issue hanging over the market and the two key event risks for the week up on Wednesday, just before the long holiday weekend there. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast and have a look at today’s slide deck. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.
Crypto pullback continues as market cap nears $2.5 Trillion once again

Crypto pullback continues as market cap nears $2.5 Trillion once again

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 19.11.2021 13:59
Crypto pullback continues as market cap nears $2.5 Trillion once again While the Crypto market continues to experience increased volatility in recent days, with Bitcoin still unable to interrupt a 10 day series of losses, we are seeing investor confidence being shaken with the total market capitalization dropping once again to the $2.5 Trillion range after nearing $3 Trillion just days ago. Despite no major fundamental news causing a reaction, Bitcoin dropped around 20% from the high reached on November 10th and is hovering near $56,000 while the majority of Alt-coins have experienced drops of 10-20%. This further emphasises the volatile nature of these assets which have experienced significant price fluctuations despite a lack of major drivers but also reaffirms the potential for them to rebound substantially as we have seen several times in the past. All in all, the situation is quite complex and while some may be expecting the downward move to continue, it is important to look at the other side of the matter where one can see that even on red days, there are several cryptos that are trading higher.  Investors await potential Biden Fed chairman decision Many investors are going to be paying close attention to today’s potential announcement from the United States as president Biden is set to decide on his nomination for head of the Federal reserve to possibly replace Jerome Powell. The Fed has played a key role in supporting the markets during the post-pandemic recovery with its extensive quantitative easing program and record low interest rates, but today’s decision may cause some nervousness as replacing the chairman of the US central bank could add to the unpredictability the markets are facing nowadays. While president Biden may wait till after market close to make his announcement, in an attempt to not shake up markets before the weekend, the fact remains that such a significant change at high levels of leadership could have far reaching implications for monetary and fiscal policy moving forward. Download our Mobile Trading App:   Google Play   App Store  
COT: Solid gold buying raising short term concerns

COT: Solid gold buying raising short term concerns

Ole Hansen Ole Hansen 22.11.2021 11:35
Summary:  This summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities, forex and financials up until last Tuesday, November 16. The report shows the reaction to the US inflation shock on November 11 which among others drove strong demand for gold and more surprisingly a reduction in the dollar long. Also another strong week for most agriculture commodities with positions in coffee and KCB wheat hitting fresh multi-year highs Saxo Bank publishes weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial. Link to latest report This summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities, forex and financials up until last Tuesday, November 16. A week where the market responded to the US inflation shock on November 11 by sending  the dollar up by 2% to fresh high for the cycle while 10-year breakeven yields jumped 20 basis point a decade high. While bond market volatility jumped, stocks held steady with the VIX showing a small decline. The commodity sector was mixed with gains in precious metals and not least grains and soft commodities helping offset weakness across the energy sector.  Commodities Hedge funds raised their total commodity exposure, measured in lots, across 24 major futures contracts by the most since July. Driven by continued strong price action across the agriculture sector and more recently also precious metals in response to surging inflation. These sectors saw all but one market being bought while the energy sector were mixed with continued selling of crude oil only being partly offset by demand for gasoline and natural gas. Energy: Crude oil’s four week slide resulted in the biggest weekly reduction since July, and this time, as opposed to recent weeks, it was WTI that led the reduction with a 10% cut to 307k apart from a deteriorating short-term technical outlook also being driven the prospect of a US stockpile release to dampen domestic gasoline prices. Brent meanwhile saw its net long slump to a one-year low at 221.5k lots, and during the past six weeks the net length has now slumped by one-third, a reduction which gathered momentum after the late October failure to break the 2018 high at $86.75, now a double top. Crude oil comment from our daily Market Quick Take: Crude oil (OILUKJAN22 & OILUSDEC21) opened softer in Asia after Friday’s big drop but has so far managed to find support at $77.85, the previous top from July. The market focus has during the past few weeks shifted from the current tight supply to the risk of a coordinated reserve release, fears about a renewed Covid-driven slowdown in demand and recent oil market reports from the EIA and IEA pointing to a balanced market in early 2022. Having dropped by around 10% from the recent peak, the market may have started to conclude that a SPR release has mostly been price in by now. Metals: Another week of strong gold buying has now raised the alarm bells given the risk of long liquidation should the yellow metal fail to hold onto its US CPI price boost above $1830. Last week the net long in gold reached a 14-month high at 164k lots and the speed of the accumulation, especially the 70% jump during the past two weeks alone carries, will be raising a red flag for tactical trading strategies looking for pay day on short positions should support give way.  Gold extended Friday’s drop below $1850 overnight, before bouncing ahead of key support in the mentioned $1830-35 area. The risk of a quicker withdrawal of Fed stimulus supporting real yields and the dollar has for now reduced gold's ability to build on the technical breakout. However, the price softness on Friday helped attract ETF buying with Bloomberg reporting a 10 tons increase, the biggest one-day jump since January 15. A second week of silver buying lifted the net to a four-week high at 35.9k lots, but still below the May peak at 47.8k lots. Copper’s rangebound trading behavior kept the price and the net long unchanged. The latter due to an even size addition of both new long and short positions. Agriculture: Broad gains across the grains market lifted the combined long across the six most traded contracts to a six-month high at 560k lots. Buyers returned to soybeans after the net long recently hit a 17-month low, the corn long was the biggest since May while the KCB wheat long at 60.6k lots was the highest since August 2018. Supported by an increasingly worrying supply outlook, coffee speculators lifted their net long by 16% to a five-year high at 55k lots. Cotton and sugar longs also rose while short-covering helped halve the cocoa net short. More on the reasons behind the current strength in wheat and coffee, and agriculture in general can be found in may recent update: Agriculture rally resumes led by coffee, wheat and sugar ForexIn a surprise response to the US inflation shock on November 11 speculators ended up making a small reduction in their overall dollar long against ten IMM futures and the Dollar index. Selling of euro in response to the 2.4% drop and a 161% increase in the sterling short to a 17 month high ended up being more than off-set by the buying of all other major currencies, most notably JPY and CHF. The result being a fifth weekly reduction in the dollar long to $21.3 billion, now down by 17% reduction from the near 30-month high reached during October. What is the Commitments of Traders report? The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class. Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and otherFinancials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and otherForex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators) The reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of the highlighted groups are: They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming
COT Speculators drop British pound sterling bets to lowest level in 76-weeks

COT Speculators drop British pound sterling bets to lowest level in 76-weeks

Invest Macro Invest Macro 22.11.2021 11:46
November 20, 2021 By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 16th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT Currency data this week is the second straight decline in British pound sterling speculative positions. The pound sterling speculator contracts dropped sharply for the second consecutive week this week and have now fallen by a total of -46,646 contracts over just this two-week time period. These declines have pushed the overall speculative position into a bearish sentiment level of -31,599 contracts which marks the lowest standing of the past seventy-six weeks, dating back to June 2nd of 2020. The GBPUSD currency pair has been under pressure since the middle of October and fallen from around 1.3800 exchange rate to just above the 1.3435 level currently, a drop of almost 400 pips. Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Nov-16-2021 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index EUR 705,698 86 -3,826 34 -26,985 68 30,811 25 JPY 252,897 91 -93,126 10 115,758 94 -22,632 1 GBP 207,099 43 -31,599 51 41,182 54 -9,583 36 MXN 170,102 33 -47,655 2 46,127 99 1,528 50 AUD 166,688 57 -61,153 27 69,858 71 -8,705 31 CAD 148,955 30 8,709 62 -26,717 35 18,008 74 USD Index 59,387 88 34,908 86 -40,455 7 5,547 77 RUB 52,624 58 22,625 67 -23,936 31 1,311 70 CHF 49,320 27 -8,889 54 18,767 52 -9,878 34 NZD 42,945 30 13,965 95 -15,521 6 1,556 70 BRL 31,767 32 -15,698 48 15,743 54 -45 66 Bitcoin 13,648 78 -1,478 69 357 0 1,121 23   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 34,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -540 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,448 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent. Free Reports: Top 5 Companies Added to Our Stock Watch List this Quarter - Here are the Stock Symbols that stood out so far in the fourth quarter of 2021. Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.   US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.8 3.4 12.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.0 71.5 3.5 – Net Position: 34,908 -40,455 5,547 – Gross Longs: 47,959 2,000 7,621 – Gross Shorts: 13,051 42,455 2,074 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.7 to 1 0.0 to 1 3.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 86.0 7.4 77.2 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.0 -2.7 -13.6   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,826 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,773 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.1 57.3 12.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.6 61.1 8.4 – Net Position: -3,826 -26,985 30,811 – Gross Longs: 198,181 404,266 90,261 – Gross Shorts: 202,007 431,251 59,450 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.8 68.1 25.4 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.7 -5.2 -0.0   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -31,599 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -19,506 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,093 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.4 61.4 11.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.6 41.5 15.9 – Net Position: -31,599 41,182 -9,583 – Gross Longs: 50,443 127,197 23,322 – Gross Shorts: 82,042 86,015 32,905 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.2 54.0 35.8 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.3 9.2 -8.1   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -93,126 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,225 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,351 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.8 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.7 80.5 8.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.6 34.7 17.6 – Net Position: -93,126 115,758 -22,632 – Gross Longs: 24,635 203,468 21,790 – Gross Shorts: 117,761 87,710 44,422 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 10.4 93.7 0.8 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.4 15.5 -4.1   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -8,889 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,154 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,043 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.2 64.2 24.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.2 26.1 44.5 – Net Position: -8,889 18,767 -9,878 – Gross Longs: 5,502 31,663 12,048 – Gross Shorts: 14,391 12,896 21,926 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 54.4 52.0 34.3 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.9 -12.2 11.8   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,709 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,605 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,104 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.6 42.1 27.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.8 60.0 15.0 – Net Position: 8,709 -26,717 18,008 – Gross Longs: 44,147 62,689 40,389 – Gross Shorts: 35,438 89,406 22,381 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 62.3 34.9 74.0 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 29.6 -26.4 10.0   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -61,153 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,271 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,424 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.5 67.2 11.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 55.1 25.3 17.1 – Net Position: -61,153 69,858 -8,705 – Gross Longs: 30,760 112,044 19,744 – Gross Shorts: 91,913 42,186 28,449 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.1 71.0 31.2 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 27.1 -29.0 24.4   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 13,965 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,083 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,882 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 61.4 24.1 11.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.9 60.2 7.8 – Net Position: 13,965 -15,521 1,556 – Gross Longs: 26,388 10,349 4,923 – Gross Shorts: 12,423 25,870 3,367 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.1 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.7 6.5 69.7 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.9 -11.8 19.8   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of -47,655 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 752 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,407 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.1 55.3 3.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 69.2 28.2 2.2 – Net Position: -47,655 46,127 1,528 – Gross Longs: 69,984 94,074 5,245 – Gross Shorts: 117,639 47,947 3,717 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 2.0 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 1.5 98.8 49.5 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.5 5.6 -1.5   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of -15,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -240 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,458 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.7 64.6 8.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 76.1 15.0 8.2 – Net Position: -15,698 15,743 -45 – Gross Longs: 8,468 20,507 2,545 – Gross Shorts: 24,166 4,764 2,590 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 4.3 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.6 54.4 66.3 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.9 19.3 -12.9   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week was a net position of 22,625 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,922 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,703 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 57.7 37.7 4.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.7 83.2 2.1 – Net Position: 22,625 -23,936 1,311 – Gross Longs: 30,357 19,849 2,418 – Gross Shorts: 7,732 43,785 1,107 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.9 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 66.9 30.7 70.2 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.2 -3.3 -20.9   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,478 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,467 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 63.4 5.0 14.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 74.2 2.4 6.5 – Net Position: -1,478 357 1,121 – Gross Longs: 8,649 678 2,008 – Gross Shorts: 10,127 321 887 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 2.1 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.7 71.4 22.9 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.9 -20.8 4.5 Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Like the Latest Bond Flick, the US Dollar Has No Time to Die

Like the Latest Bond Flick, the US Dollar Has No Time to Die

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 22.11.2021 15:11
While the dollar is on a tear, precious metal stocks have gotten away with it lately. But how long will their resistance last? The USD Index (USDX) After the USD Index’s negative response to the ECB’s monetary policy meeting on Oct. 28, I warned on Oct. 29 that dollar bears were unlikely to celebrate for much longer. I wrote: Based on the rather random comment during the conference, the traders panicked and bought the EUR/USD, which triggered declines in the USD Index (after all, the EUR/USD is the largest component of the USDX). Was the breakout to new 2021 lows invalidated? No. The true breakout was above the late-March highs (the August highs also served as a support level, but the March high is more important here) and it wasn’t invalidated. What was the follow-up action? At the moment of writing these words, the USDX is up and trading at about 93.52, which is just 0.07 below the August high in terms of the closing prices. Consequently, it could easily be the case that the USD Index ends today’s session (and the week) back above this level. You’ve probably heard the saying that time is more important than price. It’s the end of the month, so let’s check what happened in the case of previous turns of the month; that’s where we usually see major price turnarounds. I marked the short-term turnarounds close to the turns of the month with horizontal dashed blue lines, and it appears that, in the recent past, there was practically always some sort of a turnaround close to the end of the month. Consequently, seeing a turnaround (and a bottom) in the USD index now would be perfectly normal. And with the USD Index making quick work of 94, 95, and now 96, the greenback’s rally continues to gain steam. What’s more, the USD Index also surged above its late 2020 resistance and 98 should be the next bullish milestone. More importantly, however, gold, silver, and mining stocks are sensing that something is amiss. For example, while they largely ignored the USD Index’s recent ascent, their negative correlations resurfaced last week (on a very short-term basis, so far, but still). Moreover, while the precious metals’ recent rallies were likely euro-weakness-driven and not USD Index-strength-driven, the dollar basket’s uprising should elicit more pain for gold, silver, and mining stocks over the medium term. To explain, I wrote on Nov. 17: The euro recently declined and the prices of silver and gold recently rallied shortly after dovish comments from the eurozone. Namely, while the expansionary nature of fiscal and monetary decisions in the U.S. might be after its peak (with the infrastructure bill signed even despite high inflation numbers), the eurozone is far from limiting its expansionary (i.e., inflationary) policies, and it was just made clear recently. That was bearish for the euro and bullish for the gold price – as more money (euros in this case) would be chasing the same amount of physical gold. The point here is that it might have been the decline in the value of the European currency that caused gold to rally, and it had little to do with what happened in the USD Index. Don’t get me wrong, most of the time, the gold-USD link is stable and negative. In some cases, gold shows strength or weakness by refusing to move in tune (and precisely: again) with U.S. dollar’s movement. But in this case, it seems that it’s not about the U.S. dollar at all (or mostly), but rather about what happened in the Eurozone and euro recently. As a result, with the USD Index likely to take the lead in the coming months, the precious metals should suffer along the way. For context, the USD Index is approaching overbought territory and a short-term decline to ~95 isn’t out of the question. However, it’s more of a possibility than a given. Moreover, the greenback’s medium-term outlook remains robust, and any short-term pullback is likely a corrective downswing within a medium-term uptrend. Circling back to the euro, I’ve been warning for months that the Euro Index was materially overvalued and that a sharp re-rating would likely unfold. I wrote previously: The next temporary stop could be ~1.1500 (the March 2020 highs, then likely lower). For context, the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, and that’s why the euro’s behavior is so important. And after the Euro Index sunk to a new 2021 low last week, the European currency has officially fallen off a cliff. To that point, after breaking below the declining support line of its monthly channel, a drawdown to ~111 is likely next in line (which is signaled by the breakdown below its bearish head & shoulders pattern). The Euro Index is near oversold territory and a short-term bounce may ensue, but the bearish medium-term implications remain intact. Please see below: Adding to our confidence (don’t get me wrong, there are no certainties in any market; it’s just that the bullish narrative for the USDX is even more bullish in my view), the USD Index often sizzles in the summer sun and major USDX rallies often start during the middle of the year. Summertime spikes have been mainstays on the USD Index’s historical record and in 2004, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014 and 2018 a retest of the lows (or close to them) occurred before the USD Index began its upward flights (which is exactly what’s happened this time around). Furthermore, profound rallies (marked by the red vertical dashed lines below) followed in 2008, 2011 and 2014. With the current situation mirroring the latter, a small consolidation on the long-term chart is exactly what occurred before the USD Index surged in 2014. Likewise, the USD Index recently bottomed near its 50-week moving average; an identical development occurred in 2014. More importantly, though, with bottoms in the precious metals market often occurring when gold trades in unison with the USD Index (after ceasing to respond to the USD’s rallies with declines), we’re still far away from that milestone in terms of both price and duration. Again, the recent move higher in the USD Index doesn’t necessarily apply in the case of the above rule, as it was not the strength of the USD but weakness in the euro that has driven it. Likewise, with the USD Index now approaching its long-term rising support line (which is now resistance), a rally above the upward sloping black line below would invalidate the prior breakdown and support a move back above 100. However, with the dollar basket’s weekly RSI (Relative Strength Index) now above 70, a short-term consolidation may ensue. Conversely, please note that the recent medium-term rally has been calmer than any major upswing witnessed over the last 20 years where the USD Index’s RSI has hit 70. I marked the recent rally in the RSI with an orange rectangle and I did the same with the second-least and third-least volatile of the medium-term upswings. The sharp rallies in 2008 and 2014 were of much larger magnitudes. And in those historical analogies, the USD Index continued its surge for some time without suffering any material corrections. As a result, the short-term outlook is more of a coin flip. However, the medium-term outlook remains profoundly bullish, and gold, silver, and mining stocks may resent the USD Index’s forthcoming uprising. Just as the USD Index took a breather before its massive rally in 2014, it seems that we saw the same recently. This means that predicting higher gold prices (or the ones of silver) here is likely not a good idea. Continuing the theme, the eye in the sky doesn’t lie. And with the USDX’s long-term breakout clearly visible, the wind still remains at the dollar’s back. Please see below: The bottom line? With my initial 2021 target of 94.5 already hit, the ~98 target is likely to be reached over the medium term, and the USDX will likely exceed 100 at some point over the medium or long term. Keep in mind, though: we’re not bullish on the greenback because of the U.S.’ absolute outperformance. It’s because the region is fundamentally outperforming the Eurozone, the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, and the relative performance is what really matters. In conclusion, while the USD Index’s 2021 surge caught the consensus by surprise, I’ve been sounding the bullish alarm for many months. And with more strength likely to materialize over the medium term, the ‘death of the dollar’ narrative has been grossly over-exaggerated. Moreover, while gold, silver, and mining stocks recently ignored the greenback’s fervor, history implies that their relative strength won’t last. As a result, more downside will likely confront the precious metals over the next few months. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
More And More Universities Are Including Metavers In Their Education Program

Fixed income market: the week ahead

Althea Spinozzi Althea Spinozzi 22.11.2021 14:23
Summary:  This week it's all about a surge of Covid-19 cases and inflation. The debt ceiling issue will keep long-term yields in check in the United States while spurring volatility in money markets. Lack of collateral and new lockdown measures are also compressing spreads in the Euro area. Yet, policymakers' engagement to the idea of less accommodative monetary policies on both sides of the Atlantic indicates that yields will not remain rangebound for long. Once the lid is lifted, inflationary pressures will push yields higher. Therefore, it's safe to assume a continuous bear flattening of yield curves. US Treasuries: volatility in money markets will keep long-term yields in check. Yet, inflation concerns continue to grow, pointing to higher rates once the debt ceiling issue is resolved. This week, investors will need to focus on the Fed Minutes released on Wednesday, inflation numbers, and the White House's announcement concerning the Federal Reserve Chair nomination. The Fed’s minutes might unveil details regarding the decision that led to tapering this month and whether FOMC members begin to fret about inflationary pressures. Last week, several Fed’s speakers opened up about accelerating tapering and hiking interest rates in 2022. Among them, Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida called for a discussion to expedite tapering to enable the central bank to hike interest rates sooner. At the same time, if Biden nominates Leal Brainard as Fed Chair, it could advance inflation worries. Brainard is known to be more dovish than Powell. In the case of her nomination, the market could anticipate interest rates to remain low for longer, implying stickier inflation, provoking a selloff in bonds. The Personal Consumption Expenditure Index, one of the inflation data most looked at after the Federal Reserve, will be released on Wednesday. The PCE core deflator index YoY is expected to rise to 4.1%, the highest in more than 31 years. As we mentioned in earlier editions of “Fixed income market: the week ahead”, we expect inflationary pressures to continue to rise and higher rents, housing and wages to make inflation stickier, putting at odds policymakers’ transitory narrative. Therefore, although the US yield curve has already flattened substantially, we cannot expect anything else than more flattening. The only difference is that once the debt ceiling issue is resolved, long term yields will need to rise together with short term yields, putting at risk weaker credits. The debt ceiling will be a crucial topic for December. Janet Yellen has said that the US Treasury will run out of cash soon after the 3rd of December if an agreement over the debt ceiling is not found. However, money markets have started to price a default during the second half of December. Indeed, last week's 4-week T-Bills auction was priced with a yield of 0.11%, more than double the Reverse Repurchase facility rate. We expect volatility in money markets to continue to remain elevated until the debt ceiling is lifted or suspended. Until then, the long part of the yield curve will serve as a safe haven causing yields to remain compressed. Yet, once the debt ceiling hurdle has cleared, long-term rates will resume their rise. European sovereigns: lack of collateral and a surge in Covid-19 cases will keep yields compressed. Yet, something is changing among policymakers. In Europe, governments are imposing new lockdown measures due to increasing Covid-19 cases, causing yields to drop significantly. Yet, inflationary forces have already been set into motion. Another lockdown might exacerbate inflation further as consumption will switch from services to goods, putting more pressure on prices. Meanwhile, policymakers have started to open to the possibility that upside inflation risk might remain throughout winter. Therefore, near-term hikes expectations are unlikely to reverse despite new lockdown measures. Yet, lack of collateral in the euro area contributes to keeping short-term yields compressed across the euro area, including the periphery. At the same time, swaps with the same maturity have widened as the market prices earlier interest rate hikes. Demand for collateral will remain strong until the end of the year. However, 2022 opens up to widening risk, as demand for bonds will start to wane, and the front part of the yield curve will shift higher according to interest rate hikes expectations. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group. However, it looks too early to call for higher yields in the Euro area, as a lot still depends on yields in the US and December's ECB meeting. Suppose more governments across the euro area impose lockdown measures. In that case, the central bank might look to extend the PEPP bond-buying program after March, compressing yields further. The next few weeks preceding Christmas are going to be critical to set direction in European sovereigns. Economic calendar: Monday, the 22nd of November  Spain:  Balance of Trade United States: Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Existing Home Sales (Oct),  2-year Note Auction, 5-year Note Auction Eurozone: Consumer Confidence Flash (Nov) Tuesday, the 23rd of November Germany: Markit Composite, Manufacturing and Services PMI Flash (Nov) Eurozone: Markit Composite and manufacturing PMI Flash (Nov) United Kingdom: market/CIPS Composite, Manufacturing and Services PMI Flash (Nov) United States: Markit Manufacturing PMI flash (Nov), NY Fed Treasury Purchases TIPS 7.5 to 30 years, 2-year FRN Auction, 7-year Note Auction Wednesday, the 24th of November New Zealand: Interest Rate Decision, RBNZ Press Confidence France: Business Confidence Germany: Ifo Business Climate (Nov), 15-year Bund Auction United States: Durable Goods Orders (Oct), GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est (Q3),  Continuing Jobless Claims, Corporate Profits QoQ Prel (Q3), Durable Goods Orders (Oct),  Goods Trade Balance (Oct), Initial Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-week Average, retail Inventories Ex Autos (Oct), Core PCE Price Index (Oct), Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (Nov), PCE Price Index (Oct), Personal Income (Oct), Personal Spending (Oct), FOMC Minutes, 4-week and 8- week bill auction Thursday, the 25th of November New Zealand: Balance of Trade Japan: Foreign bond Investment, Coincident Index Final, Leading Economic Index Final (Sep) Germany: GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q3), GfK Consumer Confidence (Dec) Sweden: Monetary Policy Report, Riskbank Rate Decision France: Unemployment Benefit Claims Canada Average weekly earnings YoY Friday, the 26th of November Australia: Retail Sales MoM Prel (Oct) South Korea: Interest Rate Decision France: Consumer Confidence Switzerland: GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q3) Italy: Business Confidence (Nov)
Oil attempts to recover amid rising demand concerns

Oil attempts to recover amid rising demand concerns

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 22.11.2021 11:24
Oil attempts to recover amid rising demand concerns Despite oil prices making significant gains recently, with WTI reaching a multi year high of $85.42 before pulling back, we have seen an increase in volatility as different viewpoints appear to be facing off. On one hand, we have OPEC and Russia who have advised against an increase in oil production as they foresee a fall in demand towards the end of the year despite the ongoing pressure, which has been caused by a faster than expected post pandemic economic recovery. On the other hand, we have the US and Japan who have been pushing for an increase in production and even announced they may be tapping into strategic reserves in order to cool off energy prices which have further contributed to the ongoing inflation concerns. At the moment, the market is in a difficult position as current supply concerns and price increases are being downplayed by a potential future deficit while it seems that traders are starting to agree with the latter viewpoint as we see the introduction of stricter measures to combat a rise in covid-19 cases keeping oil prices at the lowest level in over a month.  European stock markets start the week slightly higher After pulling back from the recent all time high at the end of last week, the DAX started the week trading slightly higher and is currently hovering around last week's close of 16160 points. While this will be a shorter week for US stock markets due to the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, traders will be keeping an eye out for the new FED chair announcement from president Biden along with the ongoing lockdown situation which appears to be escalating across Europe and could lead to further uncertainty along with potentially causing market major corrections if it were to worsen. Download our Mobile Trading App:   Google Play   App Store  
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Bounces Back

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Bounces Back

John Benjamin John Benjamin 22.11.2021 08:40
GBPUSD hits resistance The pound pulled back after Britain’s retail sales registered a steeper drop to -1.3% in October. The pair has met stiff selling pressure in the supply zone around 1.3510, a support that has turned into resistance after a failed rebound. An oversold RSI may cause a limited rebound. However, a bearish MA cross on the daily chart suggests that sentiment is still pessimistic. 1.3380 is a key support to keep the sterling afloat. A bearish breakout may trigger an extended sell-off to last December’s lows around 1.3200. USDCAD breaks higher The Canadian dollar struggles after a contraction in September’s retail numbers. The US dollar bounced off the resistance-turned-support at 1.2580. This is a sign that the bulls are still in control. A bullish MA cross on the daily timeframe confirms the directional bias for the next few days. The daily resistance at 1.2770 would be the next target. Its break would lead to a test of the double top at 1.2900. In the meantime, the RSI’s overextension has temporarily held the bulls back. We can also expect buying interest during dips. GER 40 struggles for support The Dax 40 tumbles as lockdowns across Europe hurt sentiment. The RSI’s overbought situation on the daily chart has made buyers cautious in pursuing high valuations. On the hourly chart, a bearish RSI divergence suggests a deceleration in the upward momentum. Then a dip below 16200 confirms weakness in the rally, prompting leverage positions to liquidate. The psychological level of 16000 is a congestion area as it coincides with last August’s peak and the 20-day moving average. 16300 is now a fresh hurdle.
Ever Thought About Biofuels to Diversify Your Portfolio?

Ever Thought About Biofuels to Diversify Your Portfolio?

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 19.11.2021 16:49
How do you feel about adding a broader range of stocks to our energy investment portfolio watchlist? Let’s see what we can do! By the way, feel free to send us your questions or topics that you would like us to write about in the forthcoming editions, so we’ll try our best to answer them! Trading positions are available to our premium subscribers. First, let’s quickly define what biofuels are: A biofuel is a liquid or gaseous fuel derived from the transformation of non-fossil organic matter from biomass, for example, plant materials produced by agriculture (beets, wheat, corn, rapeseed, sunflowers, potatoes, etc.). So, it is considered a source of renewable energy. The combustion of biofuels produces only carbon dioxide (CO2) and steam (H2O) and little or no nitrogen and sulfur oxides. Therefore, biofuels – as being at the crossroads between energy and agricultural commodities – respond to economic drivers (crops/supply, demand, dollar strength, reserves, etc.) and geopolitics of both industrial sectors. Furthermore, they allow their producing countries to reduce their energy dependence on fossil fuels. Key reasons to invest in these alternative energy sources: Given the recent surge of oil and gas prices, biofuels have become somehow more attractive, and consequently one could witness a slight shift in demand from fossil to non-fossil fuels. This was also a central topic of talks during the recent United Nations Conference of the Parties (COP26), which recently took place in Glasgow (Scotland), and where world leaders finally agreed to preliminary rules for trading carbon emissions credits. In addition, as we all know, the combustion of fossil fuels contributes to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Regarding biofuels - the carbon emitted to the atmosphere during their combustion has been previously fixed by plants during photosynthesis. Thus, the carbon footprint seems to be a priori neutral. Stock Watchlist (Continued) In the first article, we started a watchlist with some major energy stocks. In the second article, we added some more spicy assets (MLPs). Today, let’s update it with some biofuel-based stocks! As usual, our stock picks will be shared through that link to our dynamic watchlist which will be updated from time to time, as we progress through this portfolio construction process... Below is an example of some indicative metrics: Daily Technical Charts Figure 1 – Green Plains, Inc. (GPRE) Stock (daily chart) Figure 2 – Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX) Stock (daily chart) Figure 3 – Tantech Holdings Ltd. (TANH) Stock (daily chart) In summary, those biofuel-related stocks may present some benefits to diversifying your energy portfolio while covering some alternative fuels as well. As always, we’ll keep you, our subscribers well informed. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve a high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Inflation Risk: Milton Friedman Would Buy Gold Right Now

Inflation Risk: Milton Friedman Would Buy Gold Right Now

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 19.11.2021 16:50
Powell maintains that inflation is transitory, but the monetary theory of inflation suggests otherwise. So, elevated inflation could stay with us!, Some economists downplay the risk stemming from elevated inflation, saying that comparisons to the 1970s style stagflation appear unfounded. They say that labor unions are weaker and economies are less dependent on energy than in the past, which makes inflationary risks less likely to materialize. Isabel Schnabel, Board Member of the European Central Bank, even compared the current inflationary spike to a sneeze, i.e., “the economy’s reaction to dust being kicked up in the wake of the pandemic and the ensuing recovery”. Are those analysts right? Well, in a sense, they are. The economy is not in stagnation with little or no growth and a rising unemployment rate. On the contrary, the US labor market is continuously improving. It’s also true that both the bargaining power of workers and energy’s share in overall expenditure have diminished over the last fifty years. However, general inflation is neither caused by wages nor energy prices. Higher wages simply mean lower profits, so although employees can consume more, employers can spend less. If wages are set above the potential market rates, then unemployment emerges - not inflation. Similarly, higher energy prices affect the composition of spending, but not the overall monetary demand spent on goods and services. It works as follows: when the price of oil increases, people have to spend more money on oil (assuming the amount of consumed oil remains unchanged), which leaves less money available for other goods and services. So, the overall money spent on goods won’t change. As a consequence, the structure of relative prices will change, but widespread prices increases won’t happen. In other words, Milton Friedman’s dictum remains valid: “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output”. It’s quite a simple mechanism, even central bankers should be able to understand it: if the stock of goods remains unaltered while the stock of money increases, this, as Frank Shostak put it, “must lead to more money being spent on the unchanged stock of goods – an increase in the average price of goods” Let’s look at the chart below, which displays the annual growth rates in the broad money supply (M2, red line) and in the CPI (green line). We can notice two important things. First, in the 1970s, the pace of broad money supply growth was relatively high, as it reached double-digit values at some point. As a consequence, inflation accelerated, jumping above 10% for a while. In other words, stagflation was born. Since then, the rate of growth in the money supply never reached double-digit numbers on a prolonged basis, including the Great Recession, so high inflation never materialized. And then the pandemic came. In March 2020, the money supply growth rate crossed the 10% threshold and never came back. In February 2021, it reached its record height of 27.1%. The pace of growth in the M2 money aggregate has slowed down since then, dropping to a still relatively high rate of 13%. This is a rate that is almost double the pre-pandemic level (6.8% in February 2020) and the long-term average (7.1% for the 1960-2021 period ). So, actually, given the surge in the broad money supply and the monetary theory of inflation, rapidly rising prices shouldn’t be surprising at all. Second, there is a lag between the money supply growth and the increase in inflation rates. That’s why some analysts don’t believe in the quantity theory of money – there is no clear positive correlation between the two variables. This is indeed true – but only when you take both variables from the same periods. The correlation coefficient becomes significant and positive when you take inflation rates with a lag of 18-24 months behind the money supply. As John Greenwood and Steve Hanke explain in opinion for Wall Street Journal, According to monetarism, asset-price inflation should have occurred with a lag of one to nine months. Then, with a lag of six to 18 months, economic activity should have started to pick up. Lastly, after a lag of 12 to 24 months, generalized inflation should have set in. If this relationship is true, then inflation won’t go away anytime soon. After all, the money supply accelerated in March 2020 and peaked in February 2021, growing at more than four times the “optimal” rate that would keep inflation at the 2-percent target, according to Greenwood and Hanke. In line with the monetarist description, the CPI rates accelerated in March 2021, exactly one year after the surge in the money supply. So, if this lag is stable, the peak in inflation rates should happen in Q1 2022, and inflation should remain elevated until mid-2022 at least. What does it mean for the gold market? Well, if the theory of inflation outlined above is correct, elevated inflation will stay with us for several more months. Therefore, it’s not transitory, as the central bank tells us. Instead, inflation should remain high for a while, i.e., as long as the money supply growth won’t slow down and go back below 10% on a sustained basis. What’s more, the velocity of money, which plunged when the epidemic started, is likely to rise in the coming months, additionally boosting inflation. So, I would say that Milton Friedman would probably forecast more persistent inflation than Jerome Powell, allocating some of his funds into the yellow metal. Gold is, after all, considered to be an inflation hedge, and it should appreciate during the period of high and rising inflation. Although so far gold hasn’t benefited from higher inflation, this may change at some point. Actually, investors’ worries about inflation intensified in October, and gold started to show some reaction to the inflationary pressure. My bet is that the next year will be better for gold than 2021: the Fed’s tightening cycle will already be inaugurated, and thus traders will be able to focus on inflation, possibly shifting the allocation of some of their funds into gold as a safe-haven asset. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
With Gold and the Buck, as Told, You're in Luck

With Gold and the Buck, as Told, You're in Luck

Mark Mead Baillie Mark Mead Baillie 22.11.2021 08:17
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie --- 627th Edition --- Monte-Carlo --- 20 November 2021 (published each Saturday) --- www.deMeadville.com As time is at a bit of a premium for penning this week's missive, (even as Gold is priced at a massive discount by valuation), let's jump right in. The macro question at large we oft receive is: â–  "How come Gold isn't much higher with all the money printing?" Macro indeed per the above Gold Scoreboard, price having settled yesterday (Friday) at $1847, just 46% of our valuation level of $3993. To be sure per the right-hand panel Gold is, on balance, in ascent toward chasing the unconscionable rise in the U.S. "M2" money supply; yet the gap from here to up there remains HUGE! The micro question of late we oft receive is: â–  "How come Gold is going up even if the Dollar is also going up?" Micro indeed as such phenomenon does on occasion occur given (for the ad nauseath time) Gold plays no currency favourites. To be sure, both Gold and the Buck have been on the rise per their percentage tracks for the 15 trading days thus far in November. Here as shown, Gold is +3.5% and the Dollar Index is +2.1%. Yes, Gomer, it really can happen: In fact "surprise, surprise, surprise" if measuring from mid-year 2014, (albeit their respective routes hardly are in linear harmony), Gold is +39.7% and yet the Dollar Index is +20.4%. So even more broadly there, no directional favoritism. And yet from that date some seven years ago, the supply of Gold is only +10.7% whereas the U.S. "M2" money supply is +88.4%. Further with specific respect (or lack thereof) to the Dollar, recall from Econ 101 class that more of something (in this case much more) makes it worth less, arguably in the Dollar's case worthless. And yet an inevitable -- some say forcibly imminent -- Federal Reserve interest rate increase (versus, for example, sovereign bank rates in Europe still seen as staying essentially negative for the foreseeable future), is therefore getting the Dollar a bid such as to push the Buck into the lead of the currencies' so-called Ugly Dog Contest. 'Course, attempting to explain irrationality is an exercise in same, in this case more Dollars nonetheless being worth more whatevers. And even irrespective of inflation, we read speculation this past week of the €uro ultimately collapsing ... and being replaced by the Dollar. "What?" But then, could such dual-continent currency still be deemed a "Federal Reserve Note"? Either way, we wouldn't recommend your losing sleep over this whimsy. For if you've Gold, you're fine. And looking .9999 fine is our chart of Gold's weekly bars with their parabolic long trend, now neatly in place these past three weeks. Yes, Gold put in an acceptable net loss for this recent week after having been up for five of the prior seven. However, the daily table therein of our BEGOS Markets "Breakout?" suggestions popped up last evening with "Sell" for both precious metals. So some further slipping may be seen into the ensuing week; yet on balance by the bars' structure in the chart, the 1800s not only appear safe, but the dashed regression trend line is now more perceptively rotating from negative toward positive. And that would tie in well (as historically noted last week) with Gold reaching 1971 during this new parabolic Long run: Thus having awakened the dip buyers, let's turn to the StateSide economy, by which our Economic Barometer had a sound week and sufficiently so as to put it on pace toward recording its second best month year-to-date. For the week's 14 incoming metrics, 12 were improvements over the prior period, the only two negatives being inflationary October Import Prices (even ex-Oil) and a slight slowing in that month's Housing Starts. But the latter was mitigated by growth in Building Permits, plus a firm increase in November's National Association of Home Builders Index. November also scored marked increases for both the New York State Empire and Philly Fed Indexes. Other positives included October's Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, and the Conference Board's lagging read of Leading Indicators. "'Tis all good, right?" Well, just bear in mind there, Bunky, that much of Q3's Gross Domestic Product "growth" was mitigated by a very high Chain Deflator, (i.e. inflationary rather than real growth): And as to Q3 Earnings Season, it just ended as follows: for the S&P 500, 80% of reporting constituents beat both estimates and prior period results. 'Tis rare when the latter keeps up with the former. However more broadly, 1,440 other mid-cap and smaller companies by our tabulation found just 56% having actually improved over 2020's Q3 shutdown period. That's an uh-oh... But in toto, great economics (arguably inflationarily but not really) + great earnings (by estimates but not always actual growth) = S&P 500 all-time highs. Moreover, money is pouring into the stock market per the website's S&P Moneyflow page: "Let's all buy high!" 'Tis quite extraordinary. "So then maybe this a blow-off top, mmb..." Squire, we long ago stopped counting the number of would-be S&P blow-off tops. Remember: as we've herein put forth for many-a-year, this is now the age of the stock market being the Great American Savings Account. "You have to be IN!" they say. "Gold's for the BIN!" they say. And then there's the ever-annoying individual blurter: "I bought X back at blah and am now making BLAH!" For whom we have this important reminder: the market capitalization of the S&P 500 as of Friday night is $41.4 trillion; yet the liquid M2 money supply of the U.S. is but half that at $21.4 trillion. So when it all goes wrong, good luck in getting out with something. Meanwhile amongst it all going good, we read that a record number of StateSide workers are quitting their jobs, the notion being they can do better doing something else. Watch for this great mania of "There's a better way!" and "My stocks are so up!" ultimately ending with "What was I thinking?" Then from the "We Knew This Was Coming Dept." it seems just mere weeks go by before yet again U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet "Old Yeller" Yellen has to chase down the Legislature 'cause she's run out of dough to make the country go. For sanity's sakes: "Got Gold?" Hopefully as the Fed Chair passes to Lael "The Brain" Brainard, she and the Treasury Secretary can sort it all out. (See too: "In Like Flint", 20th Century Fox, '67). From steely flint to a wee loss of glint describes at present our precious metals. Per the two-panel graphic below, we see on the left a bit of a topping pattern in the daily bars, but again with structural support still well within the 1800s. Then on the right in Gold's 10-day Market Profile, 1864 clearly is the dominant price traded across these past two weeks: Silver, too, shows similar toppiness per her daily bars (at left) with the low 24s/high 23s as supportive; then in her Profile (at right), 25.15 is where the bulk of Sister Silver's action has been: In sum, we see a bit of near-term pullback for Gold and Silver, but nothing really materially daunting, especially given the notion of 1971 during Gold's current parabolic up run; (you'll recall from a week ago, arriving at that level equates to the median gain of the 43 prior parabolic Long trends since the year 2001). And at some point -- you know, and we know, and everyone from Bangor, Maine to Honolulu and right 'round the word knows that -- the Buck ultimately shall run out of luck. Indeed to that end (and so much more), in having opened with a couple of questions, let's close with one that came in this past week from a highly-valued publisher of The Gold Update: "Do you think $1900 is nigh?" Our response in kind: "$4000 is nigh." Cheers! ...m... www.deMeadville.com www.deMeadville.com
Intraday Market Analysis – Nasdaq Hits Resistance

Intraday Market Analysis – Nasdaq Hits Resistance

John Benjamin John Benjamin 23.11.2021 09:20
NAS 100 pulls back Investors took profit after Jerome Powell’s renomination as US Federal Reserve Chairman. The tech index saw an acceleration in its rally after a break above the previous peak (16450). Strong momentum suggests that buyers are committed to keeping the uptrend intact after a brief pause. However, the RSI’s triple top in the overbought area indicates exhaustion, and a fall below 16550 has triggered a correction. 16300 is the next support from a previous supply zone. A rebound needs to clear 16750 before the rally could resume. AUDUSD struggles for support China’s property slowdown and lower commodity prices weigh on the Australian dollar. The pair has given up most of its gains from the October rally, a sign that support is hard to come by. Nonetheless, a series of lower lows has attracted trend followers’ interest in maintaining the status quo. 0.7220 is an intermediate support. An oversold RSI may prompt the short side to cover, raising bids in the process. However, the bulls will need to lift offers around the former support at 0.7300 before they could expect to turn the tables. NZDJPY seeks support The New Zealand dollar remains under pressure after disappointing retail sales in Q3. The kiwi is seeking support after a surge above last May’s peak at 81.20 led the daily RSI into an overbought situation. Short-term sentiment remains bearish as the pair struggles to achieve a new high. 80.55 is a major resistance after the bulls’ multiple failed attempts. A bullish breakout may pave the way for a reversal towards 82.00. Otherwise, a drop below 79.50 would send the pair towards September’s high at 78.50.
All alone with bitcoin

All alone with bitcoin

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 23.11.2021 11:06
With this psychological burden, you want to stack your odds as good as possible to gain an edge for balance. Bitcoin provides such advantages. The inherent volatility allows for follow-through after an entry. In other words, one gets good risk/reward-ratios in midterm plays on bitcoin. Also, necessary for the long-term time frame player since hodling has another psychological hurdle that piled on top can be devastating. You won’t find many traders who bought a bundle of bitcoin when it traded at a dollar and are still holding it without ever having sold or rebought some. BTC in US-Dollar, Quarterly Chart, the Doji explosion: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Quarterly chart as of November 23rd, 2021. The quarterly chart of bitcoin shows how explosive moves to the upside can be. If you look at the yellow lines, you will see that a small Doji builds after a retracement, and then prices explode within the next quarter like rockets. This trading behavior provides for sensational risk/reward-ratios. The quarterly chart shows a bullish quarter. Even though all-time highs have been rejected, we see the year ending on a bullish note. The great thing about this self-directed profession, on the other hand, is that you get all the credit. Work directly translates into money, without the typical step in between, selling a product or a service. If you are good at what you are doing in the trading/investing arena, rewards can be more than plentiful. No gift baskets need to be sent to a boss or coworker. True rewards for arduous work to yourself. A very self-fulfilling profession indeed. BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, most often trending: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 23rd, 2021. The monthly chart illustrates the steepness of the trend, and yellow lines provide a possible long reload opportunity, which will take all-time highs out next year. Another benefit for individual traders choosing to trade bitcoin is its unique personality of trending much more than most trading instruments. This unique feature adds a massive edge to a trader’s trading arsenal. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, freeing investment capital fast: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 23rd, 2021. But this isn’t all. From a trading perspective, bitcoin supports the unsupported individual in comparison to gold or silver as alternate wealth preservation tools due to its speed. Risk is the most defining aspect for a trader, and consequently, capital exposure time is the most crucial aspect. After all, the longer money is in the market, the more exposed it is, let’s say, to unexpected news and six sigma events. Market money parked cannot produce elsewhere and is also emotionally draining. No such thing in bitcoin.A look at the weekly time frame illustrates what we mean by this. It took less than eight weeks for bitcoin to gain staggering percentage moves within the first and second leg in this steep regression channel up. We also just entered a low-risk entry zone again for a third leg to mature. In short, you are all alone with bitcoin, but at least you picked the most ideal alliance with this trading vehicle to stack the odds in your favor. All alone with bitcoin: The business of market play is unique. You’re not learning this skill in school, mentors are hard to come by, and it isn’t a group sport. It is advisable to seek out a community of like-minded traders like our free telegram channel, since spouses rarely can comprehend the steepness of the learning curve and the challenges of constant self-reflection and pain until the consistency is mastered.  While one typically can team up and is supported within a group at the mastery level required, it’s a solo sport in trading.  Statistics support that the likeliest reason for failure in this business is underestimating the time required to acquire all the important skills necessary for success. New traders run either out of money or patience.  The press makes it look so easy, and the fact that all one needs to do is press a button doesn’t help towards a more respectful attitude. Yet, the mere truth is that it is one of the most demanding businesses to find oneself into. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|November 23rd, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Betting on Hawkish Fed

Betting on Hawkish Fed

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 23.11.2021 15:46
S&P 500 reversed from fresh ATHs as spiking yields sent tech packing. Value didn‘t soar, but held up considerably better – still, stock bulls are getting on the defensive. Markets have interpreted the Powell nomination as a hawkish choice. I‘ve written the prior Monday:(…) the Fed is still printing a huge amount of money on a monthly basis, and it remains questionable how far in tapering plans execution they would actually get – I see the risks to the real economy coupled with persistently high inflation as rising since the 2Q 2022 (if not since Mar already, but most pronounced in 2H 2022.Inflation hasn‘t moved to the Fed‘s sights, and yesterday‘s rection in yields and precious metals is a bit too harsh. While rates are on a rising path as I‘ve written yesterday, precious metals overreacted. True, the bullish argument for the dollar stepped to the fore as yields differential between the U.S. and the rest of the world got more positive, and at the same time, various yield spreads keep compressing. That‘s a reflection of less favorable incoming economic data. Just as much as Friday‘s reaction was about corona economic impact projections, yesterday‘s one was about monetary policy anticipation.Inflation expectations though barely budged – the decline doesn‘t count as trend reversal. CPI isn‘t done rising, and the more forward looking incoming data (e.g. producer prices) would confirm there is more to come. All in all, it looks like precious metals (and to a smaller degree commodities), are giving Powell benefit of the doubt, which I view to be leading to disappointment over the coming months. Should Powell heed the markets‘ will, the real economy would weaken dramatically, forcing him to make a sharp dovish turn – and he would, faster than he flipped since getting challenged in Dec 2018.We‘re experiencing an overreaction in real assets – as stated yesterday:(…) the Fed would have to reverse course once the tapering effects start biting some more – not now, with still more than $100bn monthly addition. Cyclicals and commodities that had massively appreciated vs. year ago (oil doubled), are feeling the pinch of fresh economic activity curbs speculation in spite of the polar shift of U.S. strength in energy of 2019 and before. Begging the OPEC+ to increase production might not do the trick, and with so much inflation already in (and still to come), the key investment theme is of real assets strength.Precious metals have broken out, are no longer an underdog, and the inflation data will not decelerate for quite a few months still. And even as they would, it would come at a palpable cost to the real economy, and the resolute fresh stimulus action wouldn‘t be then far off. As I wrote in Apr 2020, it‘s about the continuous stimulus that‘s the go-to response anytime the horizon darkens, for whatever reason. Wash, rinse, repeat.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls lost the momentary upper hand, and value recovery isn‘t yet strong enough to carry it forward. A less heavy move in bonds – temporary yields stabilization – would be needed to calm down stock market nerves.Credit MarketsTreasuries held up best, and that‘s characteristic of a very risk-off sentiment. The low volume in HYG isn‘t a promise of much strength soon returning.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals turned sharply lower, and haven‘t stabilized yet. Bond market pressures are keenly felt even though inflation expectations didn‘t follow with the same veracity. The next few days will be really telling.Crude OilCrude oil bulls have made a good move, and more strength needs to follow. The fact that it would be happening when the dollar is strengthening, and many countries are tapping their strategic reserves, bodes well for black gold‘s recovery.CopperCopper springboard bulding goes on, and the CRB Index isn‘t tellingly yielding – the hawkish Fed bets better be taken with a (at least short-term) pinch of salt.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum are still going sideways, and today‘s resilience is a good omen – across the board for risk assets.SummaryS&P 500 bulls need tech to come alive again, and odds are it would with a reprieve in spiking yields. While bond markets are getting it right, yesterday‘s fear in corporate bonds was a bit too much – the Fed isn‘t yet in a position to choke off the real economy through slamming on the breaks. Markets are prematurely speculating on that outcome, which would be a question of second or third quarter next year. Treasuries have though clearly topped, and stocks do top with quite a few months‘ lag – we aren‘t there yet. Enjoy the commodities ride, and confidence gradually returning to precious metals.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Interest rate sensitivity is back in town haunting technology stocks

Interest rate sensitivity is back in town haunting technology stocks

Peter Garnry Peter Garnry 23.11.2021 16:23
Summary:  Interest rate sensitivity came back roaring yesterday pushing down all of our growth baskets. Yesterday's move shows the potential for a correction in US technology stocks should the US 10-year yield continue to rapidly advance towards the highs from March. We also show how the Nasdaq 100 and STOXX 600 move in opposite direction during large up or down days in the US 10-year yield. Growth baskets look awfully vulnerable Yesterday’s move in the US 10-year yield of 8 basis points made it the 10th biggest move higher in US yields this year. Back in March when technology stocks were under pressure we wrote a lot about interest rate sensitivity in growth stocks as their present value are derived from expected cash flows further into the future than the typical MSCI World company. If interest rates rise faster than future growth expectations then the net effect is negative on the present value and more so for growth stocks as they have a higher duration. We saw downside beta (higher sensitivity) in all of our growth equity baskets with the gaming basket down 2.3% and the worst performers being the E-commerce and Crypto & Blockchain baskets down 4.2% and 5.1% respectively. This tells you a lot about the sensitivity and given the drawdown in technology stocks back in March, we could easily experience a 15-20% drawdown in technology stocks. The local highs from March in the US 10-year yield is the key level to watch for a breakout and a new trading environment. With all the options activity in Tesla dwarfing the combined options activity in FTSE 100 constituents, we believe Tesla will be at the center of the next risk-off move in technology. Nasdaq 100 vs STOXX 600 are yin and yang of interest rates We have previously tried to calculate the interest rate sensitivity, but this time we are pursuing a different approach. We look at the past 231 trading days this year and group the 1-day difference in the US 10-year yield into deciles. In order to measure interest rate sensitivity we calculate daily excess log returns for Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and STOXX 600 against the MSCI World Index and compute their average daily excess return for each decile. As the barplot shows, there is significant negative excess return in Nasdaq 100 in the 1st decile (the 10% days with the highest positive difference in US 10-year yield) and significant positive excess return in STOXX 600. This makes perfect sense because Nasdaq 100 is high duration growth stocks and STOXX 600 has a clear value tilt towards financials, energy and mining which exhibit much lower duration. The pattern is completely reversed in the 10th decline (days with large negative difference in US 10-year yield). The other eight deciles do not show the same clear spread between Nasdaq 100 and STOXX 600. In other words, if interest rates suddenly move aggressively higher then growth portfolio will take a serious hit and hence why we recommend investors to improve the balance between growth and value stocks, or said differently reduce the equity duration.
S&P 500: Rallying Tech Stocks vs. Plummeting Oil Stocks

S&P 500: Rallying Tech Stocks vs. Plummeting Oil Stocks

Paul Rejczak Paul Rejczak 22.11.2021 16:46
The S&P 500 index nearly topped its record high on Friday, but it closed lower following an intraday decline. Is this a topping pattern? For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch . The S&P 500 index lost 0.14% on Friday, Nov. 19, as it extended its short-term consolidation along the 4,700 level. The broad stock market went sideways despite record-breaking rallies in large tech stocks like AAPL, MSFT and NVDA. It still looks like a short-term topping pattern, as the S&P 500 index keeps bouncing from the Nov. 5 record high of 4,718.50. The nearest important support level remains at 4,630-4,650 and the next support level is at 4,600. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,700-4,720. The S&P 500 continues to trade along the 4,700 level, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq Reached the New Record High Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index reached the new record high of 16,625.86 on Friday, led by megacap tech stock rallies. It accelerated above its short-term upward trend line after breaking above the resistance level of 16,400 on Thursday. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we can see some short-term overbought conditions. Apple and Microsoft at New Record Highs Let’s take a look at the two biggest stocks in the S&P 500 index, AAPL and MSFT. Apple accelerated its uptrend after breaking above the resistance level of around $152-154. It reached the new record high on Friday at $161.02. Microsoft slightly extended its recent advance, as it reached the new record high of $345.10. The two biggest megacap tech stocks reached new record highs, as we can see on their daily charts: Conclusion The S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.4% higher this morning. We will likely see some more short-term fluctuations along the record high level. For now, it looks like a short-term consolidation and a flat correction within an uptrend. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 is fluctuating along the 4,700 level. For now, it looks like a short-term consolidation following the October-November rally. Still no positions are justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak, Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Article by Decrypt Media

More Public Debt Is Coming. Another Gold’s Rally Ahead?

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 23.11.2021 15:13
  Democrats are not slowing down - the social spending bill follows the infrastructure package. Will gold benefit, or will it get into deep water? Will the American spending spree ever end? On Monday last week (November 15, 2021), President Biden signed a $1 trillion infrastructure package, and just a few days later, Biden’s social spending bill worth another $1.75 trillion passed the US House of Representatives. Apparently, $1 trillion was not enough! Apparently, we don’t already have too much money chasing too few goods. No, the economy needs even more money! Yes, I can almost hear the lament of American families: “we need more money, we already bought everything possible, we already own three cars and a lot of other useless crap, but we need more! Please, the almighty government, give us some bucks, let your funds revive our land”. Luckily, the gracious Uncle Sam listened to the prayers of its poor citizens. Given the above, one could think that the US economy is not already heavily indebted. Well, it’s the exact opposite. As the chart below shows, the American public debt is more than $27 trillion and 125% of GDP, but who cares except for a few boring economists? Of course, neither infrastructure nor spending bill will increase the fiscal deficits and overall indebtedness to a similar extent as the pandemic spending packages. These funds will be spread over years. Additionally, the fiscal deficit should narrow in FY 2022 as pandemic relief spending phases out (this is already happening, as the chart below shows), while the economic recovery combined with inflation tax bracket creep increases tax revenues. However, both of Biden’s bills will increase indebtedness, lowering the financial resilience of the US economy. What’s more, the overall debt is much larger than the public debt I focused on here. Other categories of debt are also rising. For instance, total household debt has jumped 6.2% in the third quarter of 2021 year-over-year, to a new record of $15.2 trillion.   Implications for Gold What does the fiscal offensive imply for the precious metal market? In the short run, not much. Fiscal hawks like me will complain, but gold is a tough metal that does not cry. Both of Biden’s pieces of legislation have been widely accepted, so their impact has already been incorporated into prices. Actually, the actual bills could be even seen as conservative – compared to Biden’s initial radical proposals. In the long run, fiscal exuberance should be supportive of gold prices. The ever-rising public debt should zombify the economy and erode the confidence in the US dollar, which could benefit the yellow metal. However, the empire collapses slowly, and there is still a long way before people cease to choose the greenback as their most beloved currency (there is simply no alternative!). So, it seems that, in the foreseeable future, gold’s path will still be dependent mainly on inflation worries and expectations of the Fed’s action. Most recently, gold prices have stabilized somewhat after the recent rally, as the chart below shows. Normal profit-taking took place, but gold found itself under pressure also because of the hawkish speech by Fed Governor Christopher Waller. He described inflation as a heavy snowfall that would stay on the ground for a while, rather than a one-inch dusting: Consider a snowfall, which we know will eventually melt. Snow is a transitory shock. If the snowfall is one inch and is expected to melt away the next day, it may be optimal to do nothing and wait for it to melt. But if the snowfall is 6 to 12 inches and expected to be on the ground for a week, you may want to act sooner and shovel the sidewalks and plow the streets. To me, the inflation data are starting to look a lot more like a big snowfall that will stay on the ground for a while, and that development is affecting my expectations of the level of monetary accommodation that is needed going forward. So, brace yourselves, a janitor is coming with a big shovel to clean the snow! Just imagine Powell with a long-eared cap, gloves, and galoshes giving a press conference! At least the central bankers would finally do something productive! Or… maybe shoveling is not coming! Although the Fed may turn a bit more hawkish if inflation stays with us for longer than expected previously, it should remain behind the curve, while the real interest rates should stay ultra-low. The December FOMC meeting will provide us with more clues, so stay tuned! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Dax 40 December hit the buying opportunity at 16080/060. Try longs with stops below 16040.

Dax 40 December hit the buying opportunity at 16080/060. Try longs with stops below 16040.

Jason Sen Jason Sen 23.11.2021 13:31
EuroStoxx 50 December just completed a head & shoulders reversal pattern for a sell signal initially targeting minor support at 4310/00. FTSE 100 December a high for the day exactly at first resistance at 7240/60. Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis. Dax holding minor resistance at 16140/160 to retest strong support at 16090/060. Try longs with stops below 16040. A break lower however is a sell signal with 16060/090 working as resistance targeting 16000 & a buying opportunity at 15960/930. Try longs with stops below 15900. A break above 16180 keeps bulls in control for today targeting 16260/280. A break above 16290 should target 16350/390. EuroStoxx holding the head & shoulders neckline resistance at 4330/40 targets 4310/00 then 4270/60, perhaps as far as strong support at 4240/30. Resistance at 4330/40 but above here allows a recovery to 4375/80 before a retest of 4400/10. Anyone want to bet on a double top sell signal here? A break above 4410 however targets 4418/20 but eventually we can reach as far as 4450/55. FTSE we have a buying opportunity at 7170/50 with stops below 7135. A break lower targets 7100/7090, perhaps as far as 7040/30. Longs at 7170/50 target 7200 then first resistance at 7240/60 for some profit taking. If we continue higher look for 7300/10 this week. Emini S&P December new all time high exactly at the 4735/40 target in the bull trend, but severely overbought conditions finally kicked in with a sudden collapse to the 4670/68 target. This leaves a bearish engulfing candle, which is a very short term negative signal. We do have severely negative divergence on the daily chart so there is a risk of a further correction but I think there are too many retail traders betting on a crash for it to happen just yet. Nasdaq December hit the next target of 16640/660 next target then a new all time high at 16767. However prices then crashed leaving a huge bearish engulfing candle, which is a very short term negative signal. Emini Dow Jones December shorts at first resistance at 35850/950 worked perfectly with a high for the day here, followed by a retest of last week's low at 35490. Update daily at 07:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Emini S&P first support at 4670/68 but a break below 4660 targets 4640 then the best support at 4630/20. Try longs with stops below 4610. Very minor resistance at 4700/10 but above here retargets 4720/23 & 4735/40 then 4750. Nasdaq December collapsed through first support at 16450/400 to target 16300/270 then best support for today at 16230/200. Try longs with stops below 16150. A break lower however sees 16200/230 working as resistance to target 16100 & 16030/010 before a buying opportunity at 15900/850. Try longs with stops below 15800. First resistance at 16400/450. Shorts need stops above 16500. A break higher targets 16550/600 before a retest of the all time high at 16630/767. Emini Dow Jones December strong support at 35450/350. A break lower however targets 35100/35000. Watch for a bounce from here on the first test. However a break lower meets a buying opportunity at 34800/750, with stops below 34650. First resistance at 35850/950. A break above 36000 should be a buy signal targeting 36230/250. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
Tech Sell-Off Continues

Tech Sell-Off Continues

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 23.11.2021 22:41
November 23, 2021  $USD, EMU, Federal Reserve, Oil, OPEC+, SPR, UK, US Overview:  The markets are unsettled.  Bond yields have jumped, tech stocks are leading an equity slump, and yesterday's crude oil bounce reversed.  Gold, which peaked last week near $1877, has been dumped to around $1793.  The tech sell-off in the US carried into the Asia Pacific session, and Hong Kong led most markets lower.  The local holiday let Japanese markets off unscathed, though the Nikkei futures are off about 0.4%.  Australia and India managed to post minor gains as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the fourth time in five sessions.  Europe's Stoxx 600 has slid around 1.5% today, its fourth consecutive decline, but has clawed back nearly half the gains.  It is the longest retreat in two months.  US futures are lower, with the NASDAQ leading the move.   Near 1.64%, the US 10-year yield is at the upper end of this month's range.  Last month it reached 1.70%.  European bond yields are mostly 4-6 bp higher, and peripheral spreads have widened a little.  The dollar is sitting in the middle of the major currencies.  The dollar bloc, sterling, and the Norwegian krone, which are the risk-on, levered to growth currencies, are weaker.  The euro, yen, and Swiss franc are little changed but firmer.  The dollar briefly traded above JPY115.00 in Asia, without Tokyo,  before being pushed back. The steady euro has taken some pressure off most of the regional currencies.  The Turkish lira has been in a virtual freefall following President Erdogan's spirited defense of his efforts to drive down rates.    There was around 10 lira to the dollar in the middle of November.  Today, at its peak, there is about 12.48 lira to the dollar.   Asia Pacific Over the weekend, Japan expressed willingness to cap its strategic reserves.  Press reports indicated yesterday that India is amenable to coordinating a release of some of its oil stocks.  South Korea may also participate.  It has been under consideration for a couple of weeks, at least, in the US, and China appears willing to repeat September's release of crude from its reserves.  However,  it seems naive to have expected OPEC+ to simply standby.  January WTI posted a bearish outside down day ahead of the weekend by trading on both sides of the previous day's range and settling below the previous session's low.  Follow-through selling yesterday took it down about $1.20 from the close, but when OPEC+ announced that a coordinated release of the oil could prompt it to reconsider its own plans.  It is to meet next week to review its strategy. Through yesterday's low, January WTI had retreated by nearly 11% from the October 25 higher near $83.85.   A band of resistance is seen between $78 and $80.   OPEC+ had previously agreed to boost output by 400k barrels a day per month to restore pre-pandemic output levels.  That said, not all the members can produce their quota, leading to a shortfall.  OPEC+, the IEA, and EIA all seem to agree that supply-demand considerations shift in next year, and the market will once again be in oversupply.  Moreover, OPEC+ argues that the real dislocation is not with oil as its with gas.   The US imports about 2.9 mln barrels a day, India, about 4.2 mln, and Japan, about 3.1 mln barrels a day.  South Korea imports around 2.5 mln barrels a day.  Together it is around 12.7 mln barrels a day of imports.   If together, 100 mln barrels are released, about eight days of imports would be covered.  This is a high estimate.  India, for example, has indicated it may release 5 mln barrels.   Australia's flash November PMI was better than expected.  Manufacturing edged up to 58.5 from 58.2, while services rose to 55.0 from 51.8.  This produced a 55.0 composite reading, a gain from 52.1 in October.  Recall, the pandemic and lockdown led to weakness in the economy in the May-August period.  The composite PMI bottomed in August at 43.3.  It has risen for three months but remains well off the peak in April of 58.9.  Separately, New Zealand real retail sales were hit in Q3 by the social restrictions, but the drop was not quite as bad as feared.  Reall retail sales fell 8.1% after a 3.3% increase in Q2.  Economists (Bloomberg median) had anticipated a 10.5% pullback.  The RBNZ meets the first thing tomorrow and is widely expected to hike 25 bp, to lift the cash rate to 0.75%. There is still a slight bias toward a larger move in the swaps market.   The dollar briefly traded above JPY115.00 for the first time since March 2017.  We note that Japanese dealers were on holiday and did not participate in the move.  As risk-off sentiment took over, the dollar was sold back to JPY114.50.  Resistance in Europe has been found near JPY114.80.  Note that there is an option for about $980 mln at JPY115.50 that expires tomorrow.  The Australian dollar initially edged lower to almost $0.7210, its lowest levels since October 1 before steadying. A break of $0.7200 signals a retest of the late September low near $0.7170.  Initial resistance is seen in the $0.7230-$0.7250 area.  The PBOC is sending plenty of verbal signals that it does not want to see strong yuan gains, and today's fixing underscores that point.  The dollar's reference rate was set at CNY6.3929, wider than usual above the market expectation (Bloomberg) for CNY6.3904.  The greenback is firm inside yesterday's range.  Caution is advised here as the PBOC could escalate its disapproval.   Europe The flash EMU November PMI was better than expected.  The aggregate manufacturing PMI rose to 58.6 from 58.3.  The market anticipated a decline.  The service PMI rose to 56.6 from 54.6, also defying expectations for a sequentially weaker report.  The composite snapped a three-month slide and rose to 55.8 from 54.2.   The cyclical peak was in July at 60.2.    A flash release is made for Germany and France.    German manufacturing slowed slightly (57.6 from 57.8) and held up better than expected (Bloomberg median 56.9).  Services actually improved (53.4 from 52.4).  The composite rose to 52.8 from 52.0 to end a three-month downdraft after peaking in July at 62.4.  French numbers were even better.  The manufacturing PMI rose to 54.6 from 53.6.  The service PMI rose to 58.2 from 56.6.   The composite improved to 56.3 from 54.7 to snap a four-month fall.  Recall that yesterday the Bundesbank warned that the German economy may practically stagnate this quarter and that inflation may approach 6% this month.   The UK's flash PMI was more mixed.  The manufacturing PMI had been expected to have slowed but instead improved for the second consecutive month (58.2 from 57.8).  Services were nearly as weak as anticipated slipping to 58.6 from 59.1.  The composite eased slightly to 57.7 from 57.8, ending a two-month recovery from the June-August soft patch.  Meanwhile, Prime Minister Johnson's rambling speech yesterday hurt people's ears, and in terms of substance,  the changes to social care funding that may result in lower-income people having to sell homes to pay for support did not go over well.  It is spurring talk of a possible cabinet reshuffle.  The euro has edged to a new low for the third session today, slipping to almost $1.1225 before catching a bid that lifted it back to $1.1275.  There is an option for around 765 mln euros at $1.1220 that expires today.  The nearby cap is seen in the $1.1290-$1.1310 area.   The euro may struggle to sustain upticks ahead of tomorrow's US PCE deflator report (inflation to accelerate).    Sterling met new sellers when it poked above $1.3400. It has ground lower in the European session, and sterling fell to almost $1.3355.  Note that the low for the year and month was set on November 12, slightly above $1.3350.  We see little chart support below there until closer to $1.3165.   America We suspect many pundits exaggerated the link between the renomination of Powell for a second term and the sell-off in US debt and technology shares.  First, it was not a surprise.  Second, it assumes a substantive difference in the conduct of monetary policy between Powell and Brainard.  There isn't.  The difference was on regulatory issues and on the role of climate change.  Third, the idea that the Fed may accelerate its bond purchases next month was sparked by the high CPI reading on November 10.  Yesterday, Bostic joined fellow Fed President Bullard.  Two governors (Clarida and Waller) also seem to be moving in that direction (Waller may be faster than Clarida). The fact or the matter, nearly all of the high-frequency data for October, including employment, auto sales,  retail sales, industrial production, and inflation, came in higher than expected.  The US sees the preliminary November PMI today.  It is expected to have risen for the second consecutive month after fall June-September.   The reception to yesterday's US two- and five-year note auctions was relatively poor.  The higher yields (compared with the previous auctions) did not produce better bid-cover ratios.  Today the Treasury comes back with $55 bln seven-year notes and re-opens the two-year floater.  Many observers see the debt ceiling constraint being likely an early 2022 problem rather than this year.  Still, tomorrow's sale of the four-week bill may be the test.  Recall that at last week's auction, the 4-week bill yield doubled to 11 bp.   Europe's virus surge and social restrictions became a market factor last week.  Many think that the US is a few weeks behind Europe.  The seven-day infliction rate in the US rose 18% week-over-week.  Several states, including Colorado, Minnesota, and Michigan, are being particularly hard hit.  Nationwide 59% of Americans are reportedly fully vaccinated. However, it leaves about 47 mln adults and 12 mln teens unvaccinated.  The risk-off mood and the drop in oil prices are helping the US dollar extend its gains against the Canadian dollar.  The greenback, which started the month below CAD1.24, is now pushing close to CAD1.2750 to take out last month's high.  A move above here would target CAD1.28 and then the September high near CAD1.2900.  Still, the market is getting stretched, and the upper Bollinger Band is slightly below CAD1.2730.  The risk-off mood does not sit right with the Mexican peso either.  The dollar settled above MXN21.00 yesterday, its highest close in eight months.  The same forces have lifted it to MXN21.1250 today. However, the anticipated gain in September retail sales (0.8% Bloomberg median after a flat report in August) may not give the peso much support if the risk-off continues. The high for the year was set on March 8 near MXN21.6360.   Disclaimer
FX Update: USD kneejerks higher as Powell gets nod for second term

FX Update: USD kneejerks higher as Powell gets nod for second term

John Hardy John Hardy 23.11.2021 17:08
Summary:  US President Biden will tap Jay Powell for a second term as Fed Chair and will nominate Lael Brainard to be promoted to Vice Chair of the Fed, a move that sent the USD modestly higher and US yields sharply higher, though some of the reaction may have been on pent-up reaction to prior developments. Elsewhere, the descent in the Turkish lira is turning dire, while the kiwi is weaker ahead of an RBNZ meeting tonight. FX Trading focus: USD follows US yields higher in the wake of Powell getting nod for 2nd term Surprising a sizable minority and perhaps myself to a degree, US President Biden will tap Jay Powell for a second term as Fed Chair, while seeking to promote Lael Brainard from her current position to Vice Chair. The most prominent reason given for not going with Brainard is that her confirmation process may have proven contentious, something Biden wanted to avoid, and given extensive Democratic party support for Powell, the progressive wing aside, it was always the “easy option”. Brainard will still have to go through a confirmation process with the Senate. More interesting is the Brainard was not nominated to Vice Chair in the banking supervision and regulation role that the soon-gone Quarles occupied, a role that many envisioned for her. Biden has more nominees to consider for Quarles’ replacement and other empty spots, but continuity appears assured, though a Vice Chair Brainard will carry more weight when she dissents on non-monetary policy issues in the future (she never dissented on FOMC votes but has dissented more than 20 times on board votes linked to loosening regulation on US financial institutions). Other positions at the Fed will need filling as well, including the replacement of Quarles as banking supervisor. The market reaction to the news was fairly straightforward and “as expected” algorithmically, i.e., Brainard was supposed to be the more dovish pick, so Biden going with Powell saw the USD stronger as the market priced in about 10 basis points more in the way of Fed hikes through the end of next year. It’s tough to tell whether some of the reaction was the market simply adjusting to have this important issue “out of the way” allowing traders to price in other recent developments, like hot US data and Fed Vice Chair Clarida’s comments on possibly speeding up the pace of the Fed’s taper of asset purchases at the December FOMC meeting. The next test for whether this USD move can extend will be with tomorrow’s October PCE Inflation print and the FOMC minutes. For USDJPY, as I argue below, an extension higher  likely needs more upside from longer US yields. US President Biden will speak today on the economy and “lowering prices for the American people” which many believe will include a release of crude oil from US strategic reserves. That’s a risky move if it fails. Chart: USDJPYUSDJPY spilled over the 115.00 barrier in the wake of Powell getting the nod for a second term, with  the move now trying to decide whether it can stick. Arguably, the rise in Fed policy expectations don’t mean much if the longer end of the US yield curve remains anchored as it has lately, which continues to suggest that the market sees inflation as transitory and/or that Fed potential on rates will max out around 2.0% and crush the growth and inflation outlook. While 10-year US yields were sharply higher yesterday, they’re still bogged down in the range since the pivot high of 1.70% in October and the cycle high near 1.75% all the way back at the end of March. The logjam needs to break there and send US long yields higher for better fundamental support for a significant break above the 115.00 level in USDJPY. European politics in the spotlight – with Germany dealing with a new Covid ave and the ongoing natural gas and power crunch, it is time for the government coalition to announce itself and begin ruling. An announcement of the “stoplight” coalition could be imminent and we’ll have to watch the awkward combination closely, particularly the LDP Lindner’s attitude toward spending as the traditionally liberal party’s supply side principles are at odds with its Social Democratic and Green coalition partners inclinations, although energy emergencies are not political, but must be dealt with.  Elsewhere, Italian president Mattarella announced he will be stepping down. If, as some believe, an effort is made to replace his mostly ceremonial role with Mario Draghi, elections would have to be held. And the French election season will only heat up from here, where we watch whether Macron can keep the populists Zemmour and Le Pen at bay.  The Euro is getting very cheap – bigger fiscal, an ECB reverse repo facility, and a non-Covid constrained outlook by spring could have EURUSD in a very different place by then. Antipodean action- the Aussie has risen sharply versus the kiwi (NZD) over the last couple of sessions as the news flow for the  Aussie has improved notably, with China’s central bank possibly signaling it is ready to bring stimulus, some of the news flow in the property sector improving, and especially as iron ore prices have jumped sharply, particularly overnight, on all of the above plus anticipation that China will have to increase steel output soon. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand was one of the quickest central banks to turn hawkish over the summer and abandon QE and was only delayed slightly in hiking rates by New Zealand’s first Covid outbreak in many months over the summer. The central bank chief Adrian Orr has made it clear that the bank is on the path or many more rate hikes to come and the market has priced in a policy rate of 1.50% by the April meeting of next year versus the current 0.50%. Most believe that the central bank will only hike 25 bps tonight but a significant minority believe that the bank will hike 50 bps. As important will be the market mood (if risk sentiment is weak on further US yield rises, for example, the impact of any RBNZ move may be muted) and whether guidance is able to meet lofty expectations for further tightening. The NZ 2-year yield has traded flat at elevated levels since late October, while NZDUSD has declined, arguably on the fresh momentum in Fed expectations, so moving the needle may require that the RBNZ deliver a 50 basis point hike and even more hawkish guidance. Turkish lira move getting downright disorderly – Turkish President was out yesterday complimenting the recent Turkish Central Bank chief’s decision to cut rates another 100 basis points and declaring that the Turkish government would concentrate on policies that encourage economic growth. In rather dire language, he drew parallels between the current situation and the struggle to form the modern Turkish state in 1923 in the wake of World War I. As of this writing, USDTRY traded near 12.50 after starting last week near 10.00, a breathtaking move. Much more of this kind of price action, and the risk of hyperinflation will swing into view. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strengthThe most important trend shift was yesterday’s huge dump in precious metals – look at the momentum scores for the last 2- and 5 days. Otherwise, most trends of late are extending with the exception of the badly fading NZD. Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairsThe precious metals in for a rough ride on the USD- and US yield move in the wake of the Fed Chair nomination move yesterday. Elsewhere, getting some hefty trend readings in USD/SEK and UDS/NOK, which remain high beta to Euro weakness. Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1445 – US Nov. Flash Markit Manufacturing and Services PMI 1500 – UK BoE Governor Bailey at House of Lords 1500 – US Nov. Richmond Fed Manufacturing 1730 – ECB's Makhlouf to speak 1800 – Canada Bank of Canada’s Beaudry to speak 2130 – API’s Weekly Petroleum Stock Report 0030 – Japan Nov. Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI 0100 – New Zealand RBNZ Official Cash Rate Announcement
Intraday Market Analysis – EUR Stays Under Pressure

Intraday Market Analysis – EUR Stays Under Pressure

John Benjamin John Benjamin 24.11.2021 09:15
EURUSD struggles to rebound The euro bounced back after PMI readings in the eurozone exceeded expectations. The pair is testing July 2020’s lows around 1.1200. The RSI’s oversold situation on the daily chart may limit the downward pressure for now. We can expect a ‘buying-the-dips’ crowd as price action stabilizes. Sentiment remains fragile though and sellers may fade the next rebound. The bulls will need to lift 1.1360 before a reversal could take shape. Failing that, a bearish breakout would trigger a new round of sell-off towards 1.1100. NZDUSD lacks support The New Zealand dollar softened after the RBNZ met market expectations and raised its cash rate by 25bps. The downward pressure has increased after 0.6980 failed to contain the sell-off. The pair has given up all gains from the October rally, suggesting a lack of interest in bidding up the kiwi. An oversold RSI caused a rebound as short-term traders took profit and the bears were swift in selling into strength. The directional bias remains bearish unless 0.7010 is cleared. The September low at 0.6860 is the next support. UKOIL bounces back Brent crude recovers on speculation that OPEC+ may lower production to counter a release of strategic reserves. A break below 79.30 has shaken out the weak hands. The price has met buying interest over the daily demand zone around 77.70, which coincides with last July’s peak. A surge above 82.00 puts the bears on the defensive. Short-covering would exacerbate short-term volatility. An overbought RSI may cause a brief pullback. Then 85.50 is a key hurdle before the uptrend could resume.
Dax 40 December longs at 16080/060 stopped below 16040 for a sell signal targeting 1a buying opportunity at 15960/930.

Dax 40 December longs at 16080/060 stopped below 16040 for a sell signal targeting 1a buying opportunity at 15960/930.

Jason Sen Jason Sen 24.11.2021 10:52
Dax 40 December longs at 16080/060 stopped below 16040 for a sell signal targeting 1a buying opportunity at 15960/930. However unfortunately we unexpectedly ran as far as 15860 before the bounce. EuroStoxx 50 December we wrote: just completed a head & shoulders reversal pattern for a sell signal initially targeting 4310/00 then 4270/60 (a low for the day here), perhaps as far as strong support at 4240/30. FTSE 100 December shorts at first resistance at 7240/60 worked a few times for 50 tick scalping opportunities before we eventually broke higher, so now this is today's support. Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis. Dax my buying opportunity at 15960/930 was clearly too high - apologies - I will revise to 15870/840. Try longs with stops below 15800. Very strong support at 15750/700. Longs need stops below 15650. A break lower meets the best support for this week at 15575/525. Strong resistance at 16050/100. Shorts need stops above 16150. A break higher keeps bulls in control for today targeting 16260/280. A break above 16290 should target 16350/390. EuroStoxx shorts work on the slide to 4270/60. Holding first resistance at 4300/10 risks a retest of 4270/60 with a fall as far as strong support at 4240/30 possible before the end of the week. Resistance at 4300/10. Second resistance at 4330/40 but above here allows a recovery to 4375/80 before a retest of 4400/10. Anyone want to bet on a double top sell signal here? A break above 4410 however targets 4418/20 but eventually we can reach as far as 4450/55. FTSE holding what is now first support at 7260/40 targets 7300/10, perhaps as far as 7335/40 before a retest of 7380/90. Minor support at 7260/40 then we have a buying opportunity at 7170/50 with stops below 7135. A break lower targets 7100/7090, perhaps as far as 7040/30. Emini S&P December longs at first support at 4670/68 unexpectedly stopped below 4660 before a bounce from 4650. Bulls remain in control with no sell signal. (Although the bearish engulfing candle is likely to signal sideways trend so ease severely overbought conditions). Nasdaq December lower after a huge bearish engulfing candle, which is a very short term negative signal. Shorts at first resistance at 16400/450 worked perfectly, with a high for the day here. However we were buying at 16230/200, with stops below 16150...a low for the day at 16119 so unfortunately my stop was too tight with a recovery now as far as 16350. Emini Dow Jones December shorts at first resistance at 35850/950 worked perfectly with a high for the day here, followed by buying in to longs at strong support at 35450/350 & a low for the day here. Perfect calls!! Update daily at 07:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Emini S&P I am going to stick with first support at 4670/68 but a break below 4660 targets 4640 then the better support at 4630/20. Try longs with stops below 4615. The best support at 4600/4395 this week - stop below 4385. Very minor resistance at 4700/10 but above here retargets 4720/23 & 4735/40 then 4750. Nasdaq December best support for today at 16230/180. Try longs with stops below 16100! Hopefully that gives us enough room. A break lower however sees 16180/230 working as resistance to target 16030/010 before a buying opportunity at 15900/850. Try longs with stops below 15750. First resistance again at 16400/450. Shorts need stops above 16500. A break higher targets 16550/600 before a retest of the all time high at 16630/767. Emini Dow Jones December longs at at 35450/350 worked perfectly on the bounce to 35790, just below first resistance at 35850/950. A break above 36000 should be a buy signal targeting 36230/250. Strong support again at 35450/350. A break lower however targets 35100/35000. Watch for a bounce from here on the first test. However a break lower meets a buying opportunity at 34800/750, with stops below 34650. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
COT Speculator Extremes: Brent Oil, Coffee, Mexican Peso & Palladium lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

COT Speculator Extremes: Brent Oil, Coffee, Mexican Peso & Palladium lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

Invest Macro Invest Macro 24.11.2021 08:11
November 23, 2021 By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on November 16th 2021. This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Top 5 Most Bullish and Top 5 Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market. To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table) Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes: Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels. These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.   Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions: Brent Oil The Brent Oil speculator trader’s futures position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Brent speculator level is currently at a 98 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator position totaled -12,900 net contracts this week which was a change by -1,049 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 45,201 contracts compared to the total spec short position of 58,101 contracts. Free Reports: Top 5 Companies Added to Our Stock Watch List this Quarter - Here are the Stock Symbols that stood out so far in the fourth quarter of 2021. Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.   Coffee Futures The Coffee Futures speculator trader’s futures position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Coffee speculator level is now at a 97 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator position was 66,081 net contracts this week, a change by 5,261 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 79,550 contracts versus the total speculator short position of 13,469 contracts. New Zealand Dollar The New Zealand Dollar speculator trader’s futures position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The NZD speculator level resides at a 95 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator position was 13,965 net contracts this week which marked a change by 1,083 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 26,388 contracts versus the total speculator short position of 12,423 contracts. 2-Year Bond The 2-Year Bond speculator trader’s futures position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The 2-Year speculator level is at a 91 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator position was -5,445 net contracts this week and changed by 11,292 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 345,245 contracts against the total spec short position of 350,690 contracts. US Treasury Bond The US Treasury Bond speculator trader’s futures position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Long T-Bond speculator level sits at a 88 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator position was -16,368 net contracts this week which was a move of 11,704 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 144,973 contracts in comparison to the total speculator short position of 161,341 contracts. This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions: Mexican Peso The Mexican Peso speculator trader’s futures position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The MXN speculator level is at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator position was -47,655 net contracts this week, a weekly change of 752 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 69,984 contracts versus the total spec short position of 117,639 contracts. Palladium The Palladium speculator trader’s futures position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Palladium speculator level is at a 7 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator position was -2,038 net contracts this week which was a change by 916 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 3,108 contracts compared to the total speculator short position of 5,146 contracts. Japanese Yen The Japanese Yen speculator trader’s futures position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The JPY speculator level resides at a 10 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator position was -93,126 net contracts this week saw movement by 12,225 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 24,635 contracts against the total spec short position of 117,761 contracts. Nikkei 225 Yen The Nikkei 225 Yen (Japanese stock market) speculator trader’s futures position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Nikkei 225 Yen speculator level is at a 11 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator position was -4,195 net contracts this week which was a change by -3,892 contracts on the week. The speculator long position was a total of 9,075 contracts versus the total speculator short position of 13,270 contracts. 5-Year Bond Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator trader’s futures position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year speculator level is at a 20 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator position was -344,595 net contracts this week and changed by 62,890 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 300,750 contracts compared to the total spec short position of 645,345 contracts. Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
FX Update: USD remains firm, RBNZ taps brakes on expectations

FX Update: USD remains firm, RBNZ taps brakes on expectations

John Hardy John Hardy 24.11.2021 13:44
Summary:  The US dollar remains firm after the news of Fed Chair Powell getting the nod for a second term on Monday, but a more aggressive extension of its recent strength is avoided as US yield rises were tempered yesterday. Elsewhere, a less hawkish than expected RBNZ saw the kiwi sharply weaker as the market removed a chunky bit of forward rate hike expectation on the latest guidance. FX Trading focus: USD follows US yields higher in the wake of Powell getting nod for 2nd term The US dollar strengthening in the wake of President Biden’s announcement that he would tap Jay Powell for a second term as Fed Chair extended modestly yesterday and into this morning, somewhat tempered by a strong US 7-year treasury auction taking the steam out rises in yields yesterday – with the 7-year benchmark actually notching new highs for the cycle before retreating in the wake of the auction. The more widely tracked 10-year US treasury yield benchmark is still rangebound below the October pivot high of 1.7% and the post-pandemic outbreak high of 1.75%  from the end of March. This has kept USDJPY from extending notably above the sticky 115.00 area of the moment. Elsewhere, the euro remains relatively weak despite ECB Vice President de Guindos out speaking and hinting some concern on inflation rises: “the ECB is continuously pointingout that the inflation rebound is of a transitory nature....However, we have also seen how in recent months these supply factors are becoming more structural, more permanent.” But just this morning we also have the ECB’s Holzmann out saying that inflation is likely to slow from next year. Later today we will get the expected German government coalition deal (SPD’s Scholz as Chancellor with Green’s Baerbock reportedly set for the foreign minister post and importantly, the liberal LDP’s Lindner set to lead the finance ministry), with a press conference set for 3 p.m. EURJPY and EURUSD are heavy this morning and note that  the 128.00 level in EURJPY is a well-defined range low, while EURUSD doesn’t have notable  support until well below 1.1200 and arguably not until psychological levels like 1.10. With covid spiking and a galloping energy crisis, I don’t envy the new German leadership. Overnight, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand waxed a bit more cautious than was expected by the market, and not only by raising the rates 25 basis points rather than the 50 basis points that a minority were expecting to see. In the central bank’s new statement, the bank strikes a more cautious tone: yes, clearly further rate hikes are set for coming meetings, but the bank is clearly in a wait and see mode, given the tightening of financial conditions already in the bag and that which the market has already priced in: “the Committee expressed uncertainty about the resilience of consumer spending and business investment....(and) also noted that increases in interest rates to householdsandbusinesses had already tightened monetary conditions. High levels of household debt, and a large share of fixed-rate mortgages re-pricing in coming months, could increase the sensitivity of consumer spending to these interest rate increases.” Later today, we have a stack of US data releases crammed into today because of the Thanksgiving holiday tomorrow (and for most, Friday as well). The most important of these is the October PCE Infation data print. Not expecting much from the FOMC minutes later as all eyes are on whether we are set for an acceleration of the QE taper at the December FOMC meeting, with some arguing that Powell and company have more room to move and administer a bit more hawkish message, if they so desire, as the nomination news is out of the way and this reduces hyper-sensitivity to bringing any message that could risk cratering market sentiment. Chart: AUDNZDThe 2-year yield spread between Australia and New Zealand has risen sharply in recent days and especially overnight, where the more cautious than expected tones from the RBNZ inspired a 14 basis point drop in 2-year NZ yields. The price action in AUDNZD was sympathetic with the rally back toward local resistance near 1.0450, though the rally needs to find legs for a move up to 1.0600 at least to indicate we may have put a structural low in with a double bottom here. A brighter relative outlook for  Australia could be in the cards if China is set to stimulate and raise steel output, the anticipation of which has already sharply lifted iron ore prices this week, a key indicator for the Aussie. No notable expectations for the Riksbank tomorrow – as the central bank is expected to wind down its balance sheet expansion next year, while the policy forecast is thought to be in play (perhaps a late 2024 lift-off built into expectations, though the market is ahead of that as 2-year Swedish swap rates have risen close to 30 basis in recent weeks. This is the area where the Riksbank can surprise in either direction relative to expectations). The EURSEK rally has now reversed the entirety of the prior sell-off leg and double underlines the very weak sentiment on Europe, which remains “non-existential” in nature, i.e., so far the market is keeping this about policy divergence and dark clouds over the economic outlook, not about the longer term viability of the EMU, etc…, which in the past 2010-12 crisis inspired SEK upside as a safe haven. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strengthA bit of a relative pick-up in petro-currencies in the wake of yesterday’s oil rally, as the market bought the fact of US President Biden announcing a release of barrels from strategic reserves. Elsewhere, the NZD is losing relative altitude and the USD and especially CNH reign supreme. Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.Here, note AUDNZD flipping back to positive - a move that would be “confirmed” by a close solidly above 1.0450. Also note NOKSEK trying to flip positive on the latest oil rally, although beware the Riksbank meeting up tomorrow there. .Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1330 – US Weekly Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims 1330 – US Oct. Advance Goods Trade Balance 1330 – US Q3 GDP Revision 1330 – US Oct. Durable Goods Orders 1430 – UK BoE’s Tenreyro to speak 1500 – US Oct. PCE Inflation 1500 – US Final University of Michigan Sentiment Survey 1500 – US Oct. New Home Sales 1900 – US FOMC Meeting Minutes
Waking Up the Giants

Waking Up the Giants

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 24.11.2021 16:03
S&P 500 recovered from session lows, and is likely to keep chopping around in a tight range today. Tech found solid footing in spite of sharply rising yields, which value (finally) embraced with open arms. The riskier end of credit markets doesn‘t yet reflect the stabilization in stocks, which is a first swallow. Make no mistake though, the fresh Fed hawkish talking games are a formidable headwind, and animal spirits aren‘t there no matter how well financials or energy perform. These are though clearly positive signs, which I would like to see confirmed by quite an upswing in smallcaps. All in all, this is still the time to be cautiously optimistic, and not yet heading for the bunker – that time would probably come after the winter Olympics (isn‘t it nice how that rhymes with the post 2008 summer ones‘ price action too?). Market reaction to today‘s preliminary GDP data will likely be a non-event, and we‘ll still probably make fresh ATHs before stocks enter more turbulent times. In spite of the cheap Fed talk still packing quite some punch, let‘s keep focused on the big picture and my doubts as to the Fed‘s ability to carry out the taper, let alone (proactive? No, very much behind the curve) rate raising plans – as said the prior Monday or yesterday: (…) the Fed is still printing a huge amount of money on a monthly basis, and it remains questionable how far in tapering plans execution they would actually get – I see the risks to the real economy coupled with persistently high inflation as rising since the 2Q 2022 (if not since Mar already, but most pronounced in 2H 2022. (…) True, the bullish argument for the dollar stepped to the fore as yields differential between the U.S. and the rest of the world got more positive, and at the same time, various yield spreads keep compressing. That‘s a reflection of less favorable incoming economic data. Just as much as Friday‘s reaction was about corona economic impact projections, yesterday‘s one was about monetary policy anticipation. Inflation expectations though barely budged – the decline doesn‘t count as trend reversal. CPI isn‘t done rising, and the more forward looking incoming data (e.g. producer prices) would confirm there is more to come. All in all, it looks like precious metals (and to a smaller degree commodities), are giving Powell benefit of the doubt, which I view to be leading to disappointment over the coming months. Should Powell heed the markets‘ will, the real economy would weaken dramatically, forcing him to make a sharp dovish turn – and he would, faster than he flipped since getting challenged in Dec 2018. Inflation expectation indeed held up during the day, marking modest, lingering doubts about Fed‘s ability to execute. Its credibility isn‘t lost, but would be put to a fresh test over the nearest weeks and months. The real economy can still take it, and not roll over – we are in the very early tapering stage so far still. Commodities are pointing the way ahead, and it‘s time for precious metals to shake off the inordinately high levels of fear, which mark capitulation more than anything else. Just when I was writing that it‘s as if the PMs bulls didn‘t trust the latest rally... Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bulls stepped in, the volume is semicredible. I like the lower knot, and would look for increasing market breadth to confirm the short-term reversal. It‘s my view we haven‘t made a major top on Monday. Credit Markets It‘s too early to call a budding reversal in credit markets – HYG needs to pull its weight better. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals haven‘t yet regained footing, but that moment is quickly approaching – in spite of the above bleak chart. Compare to the Jun period – Fed‘s talk was more powerful then. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls have made a good move, and more strength did indeed follow. The bottom is in, and many countries tapping their strategic reserves, proved an infallible signal. I look for consolidation followed by further strength next. Copper Copper springboard is getting almost complete, and I think the drying up volume would be resolved with an upswing. The daily indicators are positioned as favorably as the CRB Index is. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are still correcting, and the upcoming Bitcoin move would decide the direction over the next few weeks. The takeaway from cryptos hesitation is that real assets can‘t expect overly smooth sailing yet. Summary S&P 500 bulls would ideally look to value outperforming tech on the upside, confirmed by HYG at least stopping plunging. A brief yields reprieve would come once the Fed steps away from the spotlight, which is another part of the bullish sentiment returning precondition set. Overall, the very modest S&P 500 moves keep favoring the bulls within the larger topping process. Keep in mind that the Fed isn‘t yet in a position to choke off the real economy through slamming on the breaks, it‘s just the forward guidance mind games for now. We are waiting for the bit more seriously than last time meant, but still a bluff, getting questioned again, as inflation expectations haven‘t broken down, and are facilitating the coming PMs and commodities runs. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Danish equities are feeling the heat from interest rates

Danish equities are feeling the heat from interest rates

Peter Garnry Peter Garnry 24.11.2021 14:14
Equities 2021-11-24 13:00 6 minutes to read Summary:  The last two trading days US technology stocks have been impacted by rising interest rates and rising market expectations of Fed rate hikes next year. US technology stocks have interest rate sensitivity due to their high equity valuation, but several other key equity markets such as Netherlands, New Zealand, Singapore, Switzerland, and Denmark are also having high equity valuation and thus high duration. These equity markets would likely underperform next year if the interest rates move considerably higher. In yesterday’s equity note, we showed how Nasdaq 100 and STOXX 600 are the yin and yang of interest rate sensitivity based on equity market reaction this year with Nasdaq 100 underperforming significantly when the US 10-year yield has a large increase. But outside these two major equity indices, investors felt what higher interest rates can do to sentiment. Danish equities were down 3% in its worst day since March 2020 during the panic days of the pandemic and Dutch equities were down 3.1%. What do these two markets have in common? They both have equity valuations that are well above many other markets, which simplistically can be translated into higher duration which means that these equity markets are more sensitive to big changes in interest rates. Why is that? Because high equity valuation implies that a larger part of the present value comes from the terminal value on cash flows (meaning way into the future) and this value is more sensitive to the discount rate. Dutch equities are the most expensive of 26 equity markets in the developed and emerging markets with a 12-month forward EV/EBITDA of 23.3x with Denmark and Switzerland less frothy at 14.3x and 14.7x respectively. If we exclude Australia, India, New Zealand and Singapore from yesterday’s market reaction because of the time delay to the US session then we do observe that equity markets with high equity valuations were hit harder yesterday confirming that we did observe a repricing related to a larger move in interest rates. It is all related to the value vs growth trade which is essentially STOXX 600 vs Nasdaq 100, but which can also be expressed between individual equity indices such as Norway vs Denmark. The main point of yesterday’s equity note and today’s observations is that we have a group of equity markets such as Netherlands, New Zealand, Singapore, USA, Switzerland, and Denmark that are in the high equity valuation group. These markets have higher interest rate sensitivity and would likely underperform in a rising interest rate environment and exacerbated if flows also favour value over growth. In our view the equity market is telling investors that tail risks are rising for high duration equities and in order to mitigate this investors should begin balancing their portfolios better between high valued growth stocks and value stocks such as energy, financials, and mining companies. Appendix: 5-year charts of OMXC25 (Danish equities) and AEX (Dutch equities)
Cleaning Up with Carbon Credits

Cleaning Up with Carbon Credits

Callum Thomas Callum Thomas 25.11.2021 08:59
The price of EU carbon credits hit a fresh record high last week following COP26. Global carbon prices are up 4x off the March 2020 low and 9x above the 2017 nadir. Retail traders and advisors can access the space through a growing ETF While appearing a bit faddish and overheated, the bull market in carbon could still be in the early phases   Winter is coming. Households in China, Europe, and the States will be faced with higher than average heating bills due to this year’s spike in commodity prices—namely in natural gas and coal. In a similar vein, credits of carbon offsets have also surged.   Carbon: The New Asset Class?   Carbon as an asset class has grown in popularity. Trading (and holding) carbon credits is a market born out of regulation. Investors might be familiar with the “cap and trade” concept. The idea is that regulators cap the amount of carbon emissions and then allow emitters to trade the credits. A cleaner environment is the goal while allowing the market to discover a fair price.   Scarcity Meets AUM   High government regulation and surging fund flows culminated in an interesting and volatile situation this year. Carbon credits are scarce, but investor allocations continue to pour in. The buyers of these credits are, of course, energy and utility firms, but demand grows from other corporate entities looking to put their green foot forward. Even golfer Rory McIlroy is paying up to reduce his carbon footprint. Retail investors have interest, too. Naturally, as prices rally and volatility increases, speculative traders enter the scene.   Prices Rally Following Regulation Talks   Last week, the European Union Emissions Trading System (ETS) Carbon Price notched a new record high above €66 following the COP26 conference which happened to coincide with a cold snap in the region. Carbon credits often become more valuable during a summer heatwave or winter cold blast due to higher power burns and electricity generation to meet demand.   Getting In on the Game   Retail investors and advisors don’t need a futures trading seat or a source of institutional credit to get in on the carbon trading action. The KraneShares Global Carbon ETF (KRBN) tracks the EU ETC carbon price fairly well. KRBN traded with very low volume up until energy commodity prices began to surge in 2Q21.   Our Weekly Macro Themes report details the growing interest in this unique asset. This week’s featured chart illustrates how much money is pouring into the carbon credit space. We aggregated all the carbon credit ETFs that trade globally. AUM in these exchange-traded products was just a trace a year ago ($35 million) but now approaches $2.5 billion.   Featured Chart: Carbon Credit ETF Assets Under Management   The growth in ESG flows is no joke, and it seems like nothing is stopping that freight train. But is the parabolic move in carbon credit ETFs just another mini-bubble we have come to expect as pandemic stimulus ignites a wave of speculation? It has the hallmarks of just that. Investor interest is driving up prices, but the nuance here is that the speculators might be less demonized given the arguably positive benefits to climate change (in contrast to speculators in other energy and agricultural commodities).   Search Trends and Price Correlation   Our weekly report investigates the similarities between ESG’s growth and interest in trading carbon credits. There is an obvious link. Google Search Trends of “carbon” matches the price chart of the EU ETS Carbon index. From an impact investing standpoint, putting upward pressure on carbon prices is a very direct way of influencing climate outcomes (by raising the cost of emitting and incentivizing investment in clean tech).   Bottom Line: Is this the new hot trading craze? Speculating in carbon credits? We are not there yet, but growth in the niche is surging along with prices. The rise in speculative manias over the last 18 months collides with the powerhouse that is growth in ESG. The bullish combination has led to substantial flows into the asset class and new all-time highs in price.   Follow us on: Substack https://topdowncharts.substack.com/ LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/company/topdown-charts Twitter http://www.twitter.com/topdowncharts
Black Friday can squeeze supply chains and challenge Christmas

Black Friday can squeeze supply chains and challenge Christmas

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 25.11.2021 08:31
Thought Starters 2021-11-24 14:00 Summary:  Black Friday is upon us and with the current pressure on supply chains the shopping frenzy may make it difficult for Christmas presents to reach stores in time for the Holidays. ‘Tis the season for shopping. While Thanksgiving still is primarily a tradition for Americans and people who are into American football, the Friday after, Black Friday, has become a global phenomenon, where shops across the globe make offers that can’t be refused.But, on the back of the COVID-19 pandemic, the act of getting goods from factories to shops, which is a task that’s previously been taken for granted, has become increasingly difficult.“Containers are generally shipped from the big ports in China to the big ports in Europe and on the US East and West Coast. The frequency with which this has happened has been challenged by a strong global economic recovery creating a strong demand for goods around the world. Simultaneously, we’ve all become accustomed to the fact that when we order something online, we get it delivered within a few days. That has broken down and we have to be much more patient now,“ says Ole Hansen, Head of Commodities at Saxo.In the picture below it can be seen that the amount of cargo being off-loaded and loaded in a port like Hong-Kong has fallen roughly 25 pct. on average from 2020 to 2021. This serves as an example of what Hansen describes above, i.e., that there are bottlenecks in the global supply chains, which make it harder for goods to go from one place to another and thus delivery takes longer. The picture also shows the massive price increase on shipping containers, which has almost tripled from 2020 to 2021. This indicates the imbalance between the “supply of logistics” relative to the demand of it. In other words, as a company it’s harder to get your goods in a container and on a containership and therefore get it to where it’s being sold. Therefore, you are willing to pay more for those containers. So where does that leave all the Black Friday shoppers?“Black Friday is going to happen even though I'm sure there's still a lot of stuff at harbours around the world, which is not going to reach the shops in time. But we have noticed something interesting; last month, the retail sales in the US surprised positively and it could potentially be consumers worrying that there won't be enough goods available when we get close to Christmas, so they're already stocking up on some of the goods they need to already now. Based on that it’s fair to assume we will have enough goods for Black Friday but Christmas is another matter,” says Hansen.What does this mean for investors?From an investor point of view, this is something to take note of, as it can have an impact on equities in both the logistics sector, as well as the e-commerce and consumer goods sectors. However, Head of Equity Strategy at Saxo, Peter Garnry, notes that with the right investment strategy, it shouldn’t be seen as a fundamental crisis: “There's always something we can worry about in the equity markets, but, as I tell the young people here at Saxo, who wants to listen to me: it pays off to be an optimist. I think you have to be an optimist about the world and these things will solve themselves. And if you stay true to being long-term in your investments and you remember to diversify your portfolio, then I think you’re off to a good start,” he says. If you want to have a look at some of the global logistics stocks and read more about the sector and its risks, you can invest in and get exposure towards these challenges, have a look at Garnry’s Logistics theme basket here (will open in a new window and require log-in to Saxo). If you instead want to have a look at his E-commerce basket, which is also affected by the supply chain issues, and read about its construction and risks, then take a look here (will open in a new window and require log-in to Saxo).
Ahead Of The US CPI, Speaking Of Crude Oil And Metals - Saxo Market Call

Market Quick Take - November 24, 2021

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 24.11.2021 09:53
Macro 2021-11-24 08:40 6 minutes to read Summary:  US equity markets bounced back from an extension of the sell-off from the highs of Monday, perhaps in part as a firm US 7-year treasury auction saw yields settling back lower, just after that particular benchmark had notched a new high yield for the cycle. Today sees a flurry of US data and the FOMC Minutes all crammed into the last day before the long Thanksgiving weekend in the US, where markets are closed tomorrow and only open for short session on Friday. What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - Nasdaq 100 recovered from steep losses late in yesterday’s session which has extended this morning on a positive session in Asia driven by improved sentiment in Chinese equities on good earnings releases. Nasdaq 100 futures are trading 1.4% higher than yesterday’s lows. The key thing to monitor is still the US 10-year yield and the USD for clues of where US equities are going. If Nasdaq 100 futures can extend their momentum today the 16,443 level is the natural gravitational point in this market sitting at the 50% retracement level over the past three trading sessions. USDJPY – The  USDJPY outlook is predominantly a question of “will it or won’t it sustain a break above 115.00?” And the answer to that question is likely coincident with whether long US treasury yields will rise above the 1.75% highs established earlier this year. After a strong 7-year US treasury auction yesterday, US longer yields dipped from session highs, drawing out the suspense on USDJPY direction here. AUDNZD – after the RBNZ meeting proved far less hawkish than the market has priced, it feels as if it will be difficult for the momentum in higher RBNZ rate expectations to return as the bank likely waxed a bit cautious overnight (more below) to give itself more time to assess how quickly the tightening in the bag and a few more planned hikes already priced in are affecting the NZ economy. In Australia, meanwhile, the economy is emerging from lockdowns and rate expectations could close the gap, with an additional possible source of support from China, where stimulus may be on the way, and where the anticipation of a rise in steel output has sharply boosted iron ore prices (Australia’s largest export). AUDNZD may have bottomed out now and we watch for whether this sharply rally off the bottom could have legs for at least 1.0600 as AU vs. NZ yield spreads mean revert. Gold (XAUUSD) trades higher after finding support ahead of $1781. The slump this week below  $1835 area was triggered by rising Treasury yields following the renomination of Jerome Powell as Fed chair. The oversized downside reaction, however, was caused by long liquidation from hedge funds who had been rushing into gold before and after the recent CPI shock. Gold’s short-term ability to bounce will mostly depend on whether the washout has triggered a big enough reduction of recently established and now loss-making positions. A sharp drop in open interest in COMEX gold futures and two days with double the normal trading volume could indicate most of the adjustments have now been executed. Crude oil (OILUKJAN22 & OILUSJAN21) jumped the most in two weeks yesterday after a US initiated release of strategic reserves underwhelmed in its size and details. Most of the oil being offered to refineries will have to be returned at a later date while international contributions were smaller than expected. Refineries are already processing crude near the seasonal pace so the market doubt how much extra oil they may need. Also, and more important, the OPEC+ alliance called the move unjustified given current conditions and as a result they may opt to reduce future production hikes, currently running near 12 million barrels per month. Ahead of today’s EIA stock report, the API last night reported a 2.3 million barrel increase with stockpiles at Cushing also rising US treasuries (SHY, IEF, TLT). At the beginning of the day, the yield curve bear flattened with 7-year yields breaking above 1.55% before the 7-year auction. It led many to believe that it could be a catastrophic bond sale as demand for Monday’s 2-year and 5-year Treasuries was weak. Surprisingly, bidding metrics were strong with the bid-to-cover ratio being the highest since September 2020, and the yield stopping through by 1bps at 1.588%. Following the auction, the yield curve steepened slightly amid lower breakeven rates and less aggressive rate hikes for 2022. We expect the bond market to continue to be volatile as the market adjusts expectations for rate hikes next year. Yet, the long part of the yield curve is likely to remain in check until a resolution to the debt ceiling is not found. Todays’ Personal Consumption Expenditures might revive inflation fears reversing gains in the Asia trading session. Italian BTPS (BTP10). Italian government bonds sold off for the second day in a row as German and French PMI beat expectations, hinting at the inevitable end of the PEPP program. To weaken sentiment in BTPS was also news that President Mattarella is going to vacate his position in January leaving a political vacuum. Parties are pushing Draghi to get that position to get rid of him and go to early elections. If that were to happen, the stability that Italian BTPS enjoyed since Draghi is leading the government will vanish provoking a fast widening of the BTPS-Bund spread. What is going on? EU gas prices surged back above $30/MMBtu (€90/GWh) yesterday in response to rising winter demand, low power production from wind farms and increased competition from Asia which is ramping up its LNG imports. The US imposing additional sanctions aimed at Russia’s Nord Strem 2 pipeline also received some unwelcome attention. Sky-high day ahead prices for power adding to the pain with some countries approaching record highs. Power plants are burning more coal which is cheaper and more profitable and it has helped drive the emissions future (CFIZ1) to a new all-time high this week above €70 per tons. RBNZ hikes only 25 basis points, statement somewhat cautious. The majority of market participants were looking for a 25-basis point hike from the RNBZ overnight, but enough were looking for 50 bps that the 0.25% hike to take the official cash rate to 0.75%  rate triggered a sell-off in the kiwi. But it was the guidance that was a bit more of a surprise than the rate move, as the RBNZ noted that, while further rate rises would be needed, “the Committee expressed uncertainty about the resilience of consumer spending and business investment....(and) also noted that increases in interest rates to households and businesses had already tightened monetary conditions.” The 2-year NZGB yield dropped 14 basis points overnight to 1.94% as the market lowered rate hike expectations out the curve. Turkish lira descent accelerates – yesterday was a wild day for the TRY, which fell almost 20% in a single day yesterday before stabilizing slightly, on fresh rhetoric from Turkish president Erdogan, who complimented the recent Turkish Central Bank decision to cut rates again and who continues to use belligerent rhetoric against the standard EM playbook for dealing with a devaluing currency (vicious belt tightening via rate hikes, etc.). Chinese equities are rebounding on good earnings releases. Yesterday’s earnings releases from Xiaomi, Kuaishou Technology, and XPeng  have lifted sentiment in Chinese equities. Kuaishou was a positive surprise given the technology crackdown in China and XPeng overtook NIO in Q3 on EV deliveries showing that the company can ramp up production. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos says inflation drivers are becoming more structural. In a speech yesterday in Madrid, the central banker said that “the ECB is continuously pointing out that the inflation rebound is of a transitory nature....However, we have also seen how in recent months these supply factors are becoming more structural, more permanent.” Euribor futures far out into 2024 and 2025 are several ticks lower from recent highs, but also up a few ticks from yesterday’s lows, as the market is only pricing for the ECB to move back to 0% rates by around the beginning of 2025. What are we watching next? Busy US Economic Calendar ahead of long holiday weekend - the majority of US office workers take a long weekend that includes Thanksgiving Day tomorrow and the Friday as well, with a lot of the data that normally would have been spread out over the rest of the week all piled up into a heap in early US hours today. The key number to watch today is the October PCE Inflation numbers, where the headline “PCE Deflator” and “PCE Core Deflator” are expected to show year-on-year readings of 5.1%/4.1% respectively vs. 4.4%/3.6% in September, which would mean the hottest pace of inflation since the early 1990’s. Much later in the day we have the FOMC minutes from the November 3 meeting, which should be interesting for whether the debate on whether the Fed needs to tighten policy more quickly is becoming more heated. Earnings Watch – the rest of the week in terms of earnings will be quite light with today’s focus on Deere which sells equipment to the agricultural sector and thus is a good indicator on this sector. Wednesday: Deere Thursday: Adevinta Friday: Meituan, Pinduoduo Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0900 – Germany Nov. IFO Survey 1330 – US Weekly Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims 1330 – US Oct. Advance Goods Trade Balance 1330 – US Q3 GDP Revision 1330 – US Oct. Durable Goods Orders 1430 – UK BoE’s Tenreyro to speak 1500 – US Oct. PCE Inflation 1500 – US Final University of Michigan Sentiment Survey 1500 – US Oct. New Home Sales 1530 – EIA's Weekly Crude and Product Inventory Report 1700 – EIA’s Natural Gas Storage Change 1900 – US FOMC Meeting Minutes   Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher
Oil prices hold steady despite Biden announcement

Oil prices hold steady despite Biden announcement

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 25.11.2021 09:23
Oil prices hold steady despite Biden announcement Oil prices have returned to their recent range despite the announcement from president Biden that the United States would be releasing some of its strategic petroleum reserves, a move which was meant to cool oil prices after many expressed concerns for the serious effects they are having on consumers and ultimately, the post pandemic economic recovery. While OPEC maintains its narrative and continues to expect a fall in demand towards the end of the year, the US along with a group of other countries are attempting to ease the pressure by tapping into their strategic reserves. As stated in the past, this move was unlikely to have a long term effect on prices since it would not be able to make a significant impact on total demand, and after a brief pullback which saw prices drop by around 4,5%, the move was reversed. Furthermore, we are seeing a faster than expected recovery in oil prices as Brent is trading above $80 once again and WTI hovers in the $78 range, this may worry markets once again as governments begin to run out of options to control the ongoing situation on the oil market. VirginMoney annual report paints optimistic picture Annual results from Virgin money continued to offer investors reassurance as they outlined the growing strength of the company which managed to increase its market share while reducing costs and ensuring expansion of the brand. The report also highlighted the ongoing effort to continue investing in different sectors of the business while also aiming to return to a sustainable dividend in the medium term and keeping up with technological advances. Despite some questions relating to the logistics and practical implementation of strategies, today’s report could be seen as an overall positive and may reaffirm confidence in the board as it managed to deliver on many of its promises and could continue to do so moving forward.  
Crude Oil: Anticipating Dips in the Near-Term

Crude Oil: Anticipating Dips in the Near-Term

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 24.11.2021 16:49
The market is struggling with further downward pressure, triggered by a stronger US dollar, and threats that the US and others will start using their strategic oil reserves. Trade Plan Review Indeed, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said on Saturday (Nov 20th) that his government was considering drawing on oil reserves in response to rising crude prices. Since Japan sources most of its oil from the Middle East, the recent surge in prices and the decline of the yen have pushed up import cost for the Japanese archipelago. As a reminder, last week I anticipated a lower dip that would take place onto the $75.25-76.22 yellow band. The recommended objective would be the $79.37 and 82.24 levels. My suggested stop would be located on the $74.42 level (below both the previous swing low from 7-October and the previous high-volume node and volume point of control (VPOC) from September). Alternatively, you could also eventually use an Average True Range (ATR) ratio to determine a different level that may suit you better. For now, that dip did happen Friday around that support area (likely to become a demand zone) where we might see some ongoing accumulation for the forthcoming hours. Now, we can observe a doji formation (candlestick figure), and more precisely a long-legged doji appearing on the daily chart, which is generally synonymous with indecision. WTI Crude Oil (CLF22) Futures (January contract, daily chart) To visualize how the price action is currently developing, let’s zoom into the 4H chart, which illustrates a much clearer downtrend: WTI Crude Oil (CLF22) Futures (January contract, 4H chart) So, as you can see, even on that lower timeframe we have a doji pattern, where the bulls are trying to take over the bears to push the market towards higher levels. Will the current 4H downtrend extend lower, or will the longer-term (daily) uptrend resume its rally? Let’s see where this is going to end up. Here is the latest chart from today (Nov 24th): Figure 1 - WTI Crude Oil (CLF22) Futures (January contract, monthly chart) By the way, my trade target for WTI Crude Oil positions has almost been reached. Please check out more details on my latest oil targets in Monday’s article. That’s all for today, folks. Happy trading! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
November: Is a Bigger Drop in Gold Just Around the Corner?

November: Is a Bigger Drop in Gold Just Around the Corner?

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 24.11.2021 15:18
  As expected, after the applauded increase, gold fell. But will it manage to bounce off the bottom or rather slide lower? Today’s analysis is going to be all about gold, and for a good reason. Based on yesterday’s and Monday’s sessions, November is now a down month for gold. Please let that sink in. Gold ended last week above $1,850, with almost everyone in the market cheering and making bets, on how soon gold will move above $1,900 and then rally to new yearly highs. It was after the completion of the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, after all! Well, I warned you that there were more long-term-based factors in place than the above-mentioned inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, and since longer-term patterns are more important than the shorter-term-based ones, the outlook was bearish, not bullish. In fact, it was the very short-term rally that made the outlook bearish, because of three separate time-based indications for a reversal. And I don’t even mean other bearish indications like gold’s invalidation of the small breakout above the declining red resistance line. Two of the indications that I described previously were the triangle-vertex-based reversals based on the below chart. When resistance and support lines cross, markets tend to reverse their previous course. There’s no good logical explanation for why it should work, but it does. Not in every case, and I’m not promising that it will work in all cases, but I’ve seen it work so many times in the precious metals market so that I can say that ignoring these indications is a very costly endeavor. Another indication came from gold’s long-term chart – its cyclical turning point was pointing to a major reversal, and the preceding move was up. Consequently, gold was likely to top. And that’s exactly what it did. Gold moved lower this week and taking into account the weekly high to yesterday’s closing price, it declined by over $100. Not bad for just two days. But perhaps the most interesting things are now visible on gold’s monthly chart (based on monthly candlesticks). The above chart is loaded with clues. Let’s start with the similarity between now and 2013 that we see from this perspective. The consolidation is similar not only in terms of the shape of the price move but also in terms of the decline in long-term volatility. The upper part of the above chart represents the width of the Bollinger Bands – a tool that is based on the volatility of the market. In short, greater volatility means broader Bands, meaning the above indicator would move higher. So, it’s essentially a proxy for volatility. Since we’re using monthly candlesticks here, it’s a proxy for long-term volatility. Please note that the BB width not only moved from similar levels in 2011 and 2020 to similar levels in late-2012 and now, but it took approximately the same time to get there (if we start both moves with the final monthly high). Like a Decade Ago? The interesting thing about long-term volatility is that periods of low volatility tend to be followed by periods of high volatility – in either way. I marked four previous cases when we saw very low volatility after gold’s several-year-long rally, and it was indeed very close to the start of big moves. One of those cases was the late-2012 case, which appears similar to what we see right now. Consequently, gold is likely to move quite significantly in the following months. If the similarity to 2013 continues, gold would be likely to decline just as the blue dashed line suggests. This implies a move below $1,300. Will gold indeed decline to that low? I doubt it, as there’s very strong support a bit below $1,400. It’s based on the previous highs and the rising support line based on the 2015 and 2018 lows. The decline to those levels would have been enough of a reaction that was likely to follow the failed 2020 breakout above the 2011 highs. Invalidations of breakouts are strong “sell” signals, and invalidation of a breakout that was extremely important (as well as a breakout to a new all-time high), is likely to have very dire consequences. Summing up, gold declined in tune with my long-term-based indications and the medium-term downtrend appears to have resumed. Based on the analogy to 2013 and other factors, a bigger decline in gold appears to be just around the corner (regardless of what happens in the very near term). Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Is the S&P 500 Topping or Just Consolidating?

Is the S&P 500 Topping or Just Consolidating?

Paul Rejczak Paul Rejczak 24.11.2021 15:44
The S&P 500 continues to fluctuate along the 4,700 level. So is this a topping pattern or just a flat correction before another leg up? The S&P 500 index extended its Monday’s decline yesterday, as it fell to the daily low of 4,652.66. But it closed 0.17% higher following an intraday rebound. The market rebounded to the 4,700 level again. The broad stock market keeps trading within an over two-week-long consolidation. For now, it looks like a flat correction within an uptrend. However, it may also be a topping pattern before some more meaningful downward reversal. The nearest important support level remains at 4,630-4,650 and the next support level is at 4,600. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,700-4,750. The S&P 500 continues to trade along the 4,700 level, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq Broke Below the Trend Line Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index reached the new record high on Monday, led by the megacap tech stock rallies, but it reversed its intraday course and yesterday it fell below the 16,200 level. The index broke below its short-term upward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart: Apple and Microsoft – a Potential Reversal Let’s take a look at the two biggest stocks in the S&P 500 index, AAPL and MSFT. Apple accelerated its uptrend on Monday and Microsoft slightly extended its recent advance. Both reached the record highs before reversing lower. Yesterday they were mixed, and today we may see some more short-term uncertainty. Conclusion The S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.4% lower this morning following a series of economic data releases. The market will wait for some more economic data releases - the Core PCE Price Index, Personal Income/ Personal Spending at 10:00 a.m., and the FOMC Meeting Minutes at 2:00 p.m. We may see a short-term consolidation ahead of tomorrow’s holiday break and the long holiday weekend. So overall, the broad stock market may be trading within a topping pattern. However there have been no confirmed negative signals so far. Nevertheless, we decided to open a speculative short position yesterday, and we are expecting a 5% correction from the current levels. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 backed from the new record high on Monday and it looked like a short-term or medium-term topping pattern. A speculative short position is justified from the risk/reward perspective. We are expecting a 5% correction from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Dax 40 December longs at very strong support at 15750/700 worked perfectly

Dax 40 December longs at very strong support at 15750/700 worked perfectly

Jason Sen Jason Sen 25.11.2021 10:49
Dax 40 December longs at very strong support at 15750/700 worked perfectly. EuroStoxx 50 December we wrote: just completed a head & shoulders reversal pattern for a sell signal initially targeting 4310/00 then 4270/60 (a low for the day here), perhaps as far as strong support at 4240/30. That call could not have been more accurate with a low for the day at 4240/30. A potential profit of up to 100 ticks. FTSE 100 December broke minor support at 7260/40 but held 18 ticks above the buying opportunity at 7170/50 Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis. Dax longs at strong support at 15750/700 worked perfectly on the bounce with resistance at 15950/16000 for some profit taking. Strong resistance at 16050/100. Shorts need stops above 16150. A break higher keeps bulls in control for today targeting 16260/280. A break above 16290 should target 16350/390. Minor support at 15880/860. Very strong support at 15750/700. Longs need stops below 15650. A break lower meets the best support for this week at 15575/525. EuroStoxx shorts work on the slide to strong support at 4240/30 with a low for the day here so longs also worked perfectly on the bounce to 4300/10. This is the only resistance of the day. Shorts need stops above 4320. A break higher targets 4340/50. Holding resistance at 4300/10 targets 4280/70 before a retest of strong support at 4240/30. Longs need stops below 4220. A break lower is a sell signal. FTSE shot higher to the 7300/10 target as I write this morning, perhaps as far as 7335/40 later on today, before a retest of 7380/90. Minor support again at 7260/40 before a buying opportunity at 7170/50 with stops below 7135. A break lower targets 7100/7090, perhaps as far as 7040/30. Emini S&P December bearish engulfing candle is likely to signal sideways trend so ease severely overbought conditions, although my first support at 4670/68 was not accurate because we over ran again to 4656. Nasdaq December longs at best support for the day at 16230/180 worked as we held above 16100 for a bounce to first resistance again at 16400/450. Emini Dow Jones December shorts at first resistance at 35850/950 worked perfectly with a high for the day here, followed by buying in to longs at strong support at 35450/350 & a low for the day here. Perfect calls!! Update daily at 07:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Emini S&P seeing a recovery as expected reaching very minor resistance at 4700/10 but above here retargets 4720/23 & 4735/40 then 4750. I am still expecting the downside to be limited with first support at 4670/60 . Longs need stops below 4650. Next target & better support at 4630/20. Try longs with stops below 4615. The best support at 4600/4395 this week - stop below 4385. Nasdaq December up to 200 ticks profit on our longs as we hit first resistance again at 16400/450. Shorts need stops above 16500. A break higher targets 16550/600 before a retest of the all time high at 16630/767. Best support for today at 16200/160. Try longs with stops below 16100! Hopefully that gives us enough room. A break lower however sees 16180/230 working as resistance to target 16030/010 before a buying opportunity at 15900/850. Try longs with stops below 15750. Emini Dow Jones December longs at at 35450/350 worked perfectly on the bounce to first resistance at 35850/950 for an easy 400 tick profit. A break above 36000 should be a buy signal targeting 36230/250. Minor support at 35750/700 but below here targets 35600. Strong support again at 35450/350. A break lower however targets 35100/35000. Watch for a bounce from here on the first test. However a break lower meets a buying opportunity at 34800/750, with stops below 34650. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
European markets start the day higher ahead of ECB minutes

European markets start the day higher ahead of ECB minutes

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 25.11.2021 13:34
While US markets remain closed today as traders celebrate thanksgiving holiday, we are seeing a positive performance from European indices across the board as they attempt to return to their recent highs. The German Dax is hovering in the 15880 points area after several major companies in the index reacted favourably to the plans announced by the new coalition and are driving general sentiment higher. Despite the lack of events from the US and limited trading hours, traders will be keeping an eye on ECB meeting minutes as there are expectations that it will announce the winding down of the PEPP programme in March 2022 along with clarifying the central bank's outlook moving forward and hint to any upcoming fiscal and monetary policy changes as inflation continues to be a significant issue economies contend with. Gold attempts to rebound after tumbling below $1800 Despite a solid performance seen from gold for about a week, the precious metal experienced some increased volatility and dropped significantly after the nomination of Jerome Powell as head of the Federal reserve for a second term by president Biden. While gold continues to be considered a hedge against inflation by many, some have opted to look for alternatives which has also increased pressure on the price as it hovers in a key reaction area of $1790 after dropping around 5% from recent highs. A key thing to keep in mind is that while central banks have played a large role in the performance of this asset, stock markets have experienced a somewhat significant correction and a change in the current trend could have a noticeable effect on precious metal prices.  
Santa preparing to take back the reins of the market! | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote

Silver on Christmas gift list

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 26.11.2021 11:06
Monthly chart, Silver in US-Dollar, favorable timing: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 26th, 2021. Timing for a physical acquisition is in alignment as well. The monthly chart shows a high likelihood for November’s candle closing as an inverted hammer. Consequently, it provides for silver prices approaching the low end of the last 17-month sideways range near US$22. The white line assumes a potential price projection for 2022. Even if we are wrong with our assessment, a gift of silver for a long-term horizon is highly likely to appreciate from momentary levels to a much higher price target. Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, silver on Christmas gift list: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 26th, 2021. The value of a gift like this doesn’t stop there. Numismatics provides for children and teenagers a way to study history. Beautiful coins and bars inspire us to hold on to value for future times and encourage saving. The weekly silver chart shows in a bit more detail possible price expansion from a time perspective. This would be our most conservative picture of the future. The green bordered box is an entry zone for a potential reversal to the upside. With a high likelihood of an interest rate change by the Federal Reserve Bank in the second quarter of 2022, the inner yellow curve supersedes in probability for the expected time frame for a price increase. Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart, physical only, spot to risky: Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of November 26th, 2021. If you look at the daily chart above, you will find that we have seen a swift downward move in the past. Under our beauty principle, there is a good likelihood that this might occur again. If so, reaction times are much longer with a physical purchase than with spot price trading. Meaning there is no need to precision trade (precision purchase) physical silver, but be not spooked if a swift, extended decline might happen. Consequently, we are pointing this purchase out for physical acquisition only but do not advise taking a spot price position based on the risk.   Phase 1 drilling program at Guigui discovered not only the largest intrusive ever found in the district, but it’s the first mineralized skarn ever seen in Guigui! Silver on Christmas gift list: In this bargain hunting season around Black Friday, we find it is especially sensible to refocus and ask different questions. The human psyche is prone to give in to instant gratification, especially after the hard time the last two years provided. But with this much at stake for 2022, possibly being a year that sets a mark in history, it might be more prudent to look for wealth preservation in a longer time horizon to invest one’s fiat currencies rather than short-lived pleasures. After all, a careful look for generations to come, your children, is a view most valuable in general. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|November 26th, 2021|Tags: Crack-Up-Boom, Gold, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
New virus strain pulls back online vs offline bets in equities

New virus strain pulls back online vs offline bets in equities

Peter Garnry Peter Garnry 26.11.2021 11:52
Equities 2021-11-26 11:20 7 minutes to read Summary:  Equities markets are selling off due to new virus strain due to this strain being much more infectious than the current dominant variants, but more importantly uncertainty over how effective the vaccines will be on this new strain. This uncertainty lifts the probability of more lockdowns and travel restrictions and as a result traders selling off physical companies in energy, mining, financials and consumer discretionary against health care, utilities, and technology stocks. While overshadowed of today's risk-off event there have been several key news out on Chinese equities related to Didi Global, Evergrande, and Meituan which we cover in today's equity update. Equities react to increased likelihood of new lockdowns Financials markets are in upheaval over a new Covid virus strain (called the Nu variant) has been identified in South Africa, which seems to be more infectious than the current dominant strains. With Europe and some northern parts of the US in a stretched situation to an already high number of new cases and hospitalizations, this new virus strain comes at the worst possible time. The good thing is that the more infectious the virus get the less likely it is to also get more virulent, but it can still put pressure on hospitals. Equities are reacting negatively because it is unknown at this point to what degree the vaccines will be effective against the new strain, and thus it increases risk of new lockdowns which leads to an economic hit. Another good thing is that South Africa has been open and transparent about the virus strain which means that countries can react faster and because societies are better prepared the impact overall on the economy such be less than initially during the pandemic. The online vs offline companies trade is expressed today Due to the rising probability of lockdowns, which was already in play before the news of the new virus strain, traders and investors are again pulling out the pandemic playbook on equities. The chart below shows Nasdaq 100 futures vs Stoxx 50 futures over the past 10 trading days which expresses the online/technology vs offline/physical companies. The idea is that online companies can better weather new lockdowns where as companies operating in the physical world obviously are more impacted by travel restrictions and potential lockdowns. Smaller companies are also more vulnerable which is why Russell 2000 futures and the global index on small cap companies are under pressure today. Liquidity is thin today going into the weekend and being on the backside of Thanksgiving in the US (trading in US equities ends today at 1300 EST) and thus the initial reaction in equities was aggressive, whereas a couple of hours into trading European equity futures have bounced back somewhat. Not surprisingly the worst performing sectors today in Europe are energy (lower demand for oil), financials (potential hit to loan books), industrials (more supply constraints and lower demand), consumer discretionary (lower demand for cars and other large consumer items), where as health care, utilities, and technology companies are less off as these sectors are necessities and can weather lockdowns better. China equities continue to weighed down by bad stories Besides the risk-off trade in equities several key stories have hit Chinese equities over the past 24 hours. The Chinese government has asked Didi Global to delist from NYSE emphasizing once again the hidden volatility in Chinese listed stocks in the US. Our view remains that investors that want exposure to China should do that through mainland and Hong Kong listings. Stocks related to the housing market was impacted negatively today from news that Evergrande’s founder Hui Ka Yan has sold shares worth $344mn which is seen as a negative for the company and the industry’s outlook, as the Chinese government is urging Hui to use his own wealth to bolster the company’s finances. Finally, Meituan has reported Q3 earnings showing revenue growth of 38% as expected but operating margins under pressure leading to widening losses as the technology crackdown and “Common Prosperity” are forcing Meituan to increase operating expenses on social security for its gig workers. Appendix: 5-year chart on Nasdaq 100 and Stoxx 50 futures
FX Update: Position squaring in FX as new covid strain roils markets

FX Update: Position squaring in FX as new covid strain roils markets

John Hardy John Hardy 26.11.2021 14:30
Forex 2021-11-26 14:05 5 minutes to read Summary:  The contagion across asset markets triggered by new covid strain concerns has hit FX in the form of classic deleveraging, as euro and yen shorts are squeezed on a reversal of recent US yield rises and safe haven seeking, while the US dollar gets a pass elsewhere because it is still safer than smaller, less liquid currencies, particularly in EM. The timing is terrible for this wave of risk aversion as we have thin trading conditions over the US Thanksgiving holiday.   FX Trading focus: Position squaring hits heavy euro- and yen shorts Risk contagion across the board overnight on the news of a new covid strain in South Africa with significant mutations and signs of overtaking as a percentage of cases in regional outbreaks. There may a sudden “straw that broke the camel’s back” angle to this, given the covid concerns elsewhere, particularly in Europe. The timing is worse than unfortunate, as the liquidity backdrop of particular concern as the news has hit with the US out on holiday yesterday and only open for half a session today, with few likely anticipating until last night or this morning that they would even need to bother showing up for work today. The sense of whiplash has been particularly acute as we have just had a look at US President Biden nominating Powell for a second term and many highlighting the focus on inflation in his acceptance speech for the nomination, with Brainard’s acceptance speech also highlighting inflation as a major concern. This had jolted Fed expectations for next year to new highs for the cycle at the outset of this week, and now just a few days later we get covid mutation concerns that have sent a deleveraging wave across markets. In US treasuries, this has mean a sharp drop along the entire US yield curve, giving the euro and the yen a strong boost, as the euro in particular was headed south and fast on the policy divergence theme of the ECB seen likely to maintain zero rates and even some level of QE out over the horizon while the market had priced in three full Fed rate hikes by the end of next year before this sudden reversal. On the weak side, while the US dollar has fallen within the G3 and is approximately flat against sterling, the smaller currencies are sharply lower against all of the above, and EM generally doubly so. Meanwhile, a chunky new drop in oil prices on the anticipation of widening international travel restrictions and even domestic lockdowns in places is adding to the NOK woes just after that currency was trying to recover versus the single currency last week, sending EURNOK up through its 200-day moving average and above 10.20 at one point today after trading below 9.70 barely over a month ago. Chart: AUDJPYAUDJPY is doing its usual job of capturing a wave of risk aversion as the lurch lower in risk sentiment was reflected here, and the clearly important 200-day moving average gave way with a bang. This is beginning to demolish the longer-term bullish hopes as it is a hold below the 200-day moving average here is a kind of confirmation of the rejection of the next cycle highs above 85.00 that were attempted last month. Theoretically, if the last gasp support of the 61.8% retracement of the local rally wave can avoid falling, there is shred of hope, but that would likely depend on a full reversal of everything we have just seen overnight. As we emphasized in this morning’s Saxo Market Call podcast, it is impossible to know how the virus situation shapes up here until further details emerge, but the market appears poorly positioned here for a more difficult global growth outlook at a time was just on how much the Fed is going to have to course correct and end QE and hike rates because US Q4 GDP is running incredibly hot. And that was in turn driving the predominant focus on relative policy divergences, with especially Europe being singled out for its particularly weak outlook, given the energy crunch and it being at the epicenter of the latest covid wave. If I am to poke around at places where moves are getting a bit overdone here in the short term, the EURSEK squeeze move looks a bit excessive, but that isn’t to say that poor liquidity and the usual market correlations can’t send it squeezing higher still. Yesterday, the Riksbank brought a rate hike into its forward guidance (late 2024) for the first time for the cycle at a time as the market is front running that and even pricing the ECB to achieve lift-off next year. Trading a market move like the one has developed overnight is tricky business as anything can happen and either direction. Concern may deepen and dramatically so that nations will scramble to limit the spread of this new variant until more is known, and we still know little about its virulence. And in the very short-term, a self-propelling position squaring can extend aggressively ahead of the weekend as risk managers force adjustments linked to the blow-up in volatility. Then the gap risk can move in the other direction over the weekend. Impossible to know, only to limit risk and exercise patience and a couple of weeks or more of headline risks before we know the lay of the land better. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strengthAs noted above, the big direction change here is in the euro and the JPY, which have pulled sharply higher in most crosses, with the Swiss franc happy to continue higher as well (suggesting that the USDCHF pair was increasingly important positioning-wise recently?). Elsewhere, SEK downside is beginning to look extreme, and CNH upside likewise if commodity prices continue to crater. Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.Far too early to talk trends when what we have here is a sudden positioning wipeout – but we will have to see how the next few days develop. Most “flips” as of this update are linked to the oil move (NOKSEK, CAD crosses etc.) although note the euro ripping higher against AUD and NZD.
Focusing On US CPI, Fed, Commodities and Bank Of Japan - Saxo Market Call

Market Quick Take - November 29, 2021

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 29.11.2021 09:48
Macro 2021-11-29 08:40 6 minutes to read Summary:  The market is trying to brush off fears that the new omicron covid variant may significantly disrupt the global economy, with only partial success as cases of the variant have been discovered in multiple countries outside of the original outbreak area. Equities and crude oil markets have erased a portion of the enormous losses from Friday, but the Japanese yen strength actually accelerated at times overnight as Japan will move to halt entry by all foreign visitors. What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - US equity futures with especially Nasdaq 100 futures are charging ahead trading above the 50% retracement level based on Friday’s price action. The new Covid variant has for now made the market put monetary tightening on pause for a while until we get a better picture of the new variant and its impact. This is supporting US technology stocks as it puts less upward pressure on interest rates. Stoxx 50 (EU50.I) - European equities were down the most on Friday logically bouncing back the most in today’s session with Stoxx 50 futures trading at the 50% retracement level of Friday’s selloff at the 4,151 level. The next big resistance level on the upside is 4,189. If the new Covid variant ends up restricting mobility and travelling we expect Europe and emerging markets to perform worse than US equities. USDJPY and JPY crosses – The Friday meltdown in risk sentiment saw the Japanese yen rallying strongly, with a classic risk proxy pairing like the AUDJPY suffering its worst single day draw-down since the pandemic outbreak in March of 2020. While other markets tried to put on a hopeful face at the start of the week in Asia today, it is notable that the JPY strength has actually accelerated, perhaps in part as Japan is taking the remarkable step of banning all inbound travel from foreign destinations starting tomorrow. In USDJPY, we watch the important pivot low of 112.73, a fall through which could set up a challenge of the 111.50-111.00 zone that supports the trend from the lows of early 2021. Speculative positioning is quite short the JPY, so there is considerable potential fuel for an extension of this JPY rally. EURJPY has broken down through the important 128.00 area support overnight. EURUSD – the squeeze higher in EURUSD on Friday appears linked with the market moving quickly to remove expectations of Fed rate hikes in the wake of the news of the new omicron covid variant, which improves the equation for the euro from a “yield spread” perspective. For EURUSD to trade to new cycle lows from here, we would likely either need to see a return to new highs for the cycle in Fed expectations or some new meltdown in sentiment that would reward the US dollar more as a safe haven. Resistance is perhaps 1.1350-1.1385. Gold (XAUUSD) failed to attract a strong safe haven bid on Friday to push it through resistance at $1816. This despite multiple tailwinds emerging from the omicron-driven carnage after bond yields slumped while the dollar and the VIX jumped. Instead, a slump across industrial metals spread to silver and platinum, thereby curtailing golds potential upside. Gold trades lower today with other markets making a tentative recovery in the belief Friday’s selloff was overdone. However, until we have more details about the virus (see below) the markets will remain nervous as can be seen in fresh yen strength this Monday (see above). Four failed attempts to break below $1781, a key Fibonacci level, may also offer returning bulls some comfort. Crude oil (OILUKJAN22 & OILUSJAN21) suffered one of its largest one-day crashes on Black Friday in response to worries the new omicron virus variant could drive renewed demand weakness caused by widespread lockdowns and travel bans. Equally importantly was probably the very bad timing with the news hitting the markets on a low liquidity day after the Thanksgiving holiday. The market traded higher in Asia as buyers concluded the selloff was overdone while also speculating OPEC+ may act to support prices when they meet on Thursday. The group may decide to postpone the January production increase or if necessary, temporary cut production into a period that was already expected to see the return of a balanced market. Ahead of the meeting and until we know more about the new strain and its associated risks, the market will remain very volatile. US Treasuries (IEF, TLT). The omicron strain will be in the spotlight this week as well as monetary policies expectations and the non-farm payrolls on Friday. Jerome Powell’s speech tomorrow and on Wednesday will be key as the Coronavirus and CARES act will be discussed. It’s likely that rates will remain compressed across the yield curve as there continue to be uncertainties surrounding the omicron strain. Yet, we expect the Federal Reserve to stick to their hawkish agenda and accelerate the pace of tapering in December as inflation will continue to be a concern. It implies, the yield curve will continue to bear flatten, and could even invert as economic expectations dive, pinning down long-term yields. If the White House looks to add more stimulus, that would imply more bond issuance, putting further pressure in the front part of the yield curve. German Bunds (IS0L) and Italian BTPS (BTP10). This week’s focus will be the Eurozone CPI flash numbers and news concerning Covid lockdowns and restrictions. Friday’s flight to safety provoked yields to drop across the euro area, including among sovereigns with a high beta such as Italy. The reason behind it is that German Bunds are tightly correlated to US Treasuries and that the market was anticipating more accommodative monetary policies from the ECB, which have been benefitting mostly the periphery. Investors should remain cautious. Indeed, inflation remains a big focus and could drive towards less accommodative policies rather than more. What is going on? Market is grappling with what to do about the omicron covid variant. The worst impact so far is from the speed with which countries are moving to halt inbound foreign travel, with many countries stopping all flights from South Africa and other countries in the region, while Japan has taken the dramatic step of halting all inbound foreign travel from tomorrow. More hopeful indications from virologists in the virus origin area are anecdotally that this variant is not particularly virulent, although others point out that too little is known about the virus’ effects on more vulnerable patients. Weak Black Friday spending in the US, particular in-store sales. While up strongly from last year’s virus impacted activity at physical stores, US Black Friday spending in-store was down some 28% from 2019 levels and the online shopping on Friday was at $8.9 billion vs. $9.0 billion in 2019, rather disappointing totals, although some suggest that Americans have brought forward their holiday shopping this year because of widespread fears of shortages of popular products. What are we watching next? Whether market can quickly recover from fresh wave of virus concerns. The virus concerns triggered by the new variant were a jarring development, given the prior focus recently on inflation and central banks having to bring forward tightening plans to stave off inflationary risks. US stocks have been the quickest to try to put a brave face on the situation and there is some support for equities as rate hike expectations from the Fed have dropped sharply and long US treasury yields are also sharply lower, but it will take time to learn how transmissible and virulent this new omicron virus strain is, as well as how much damage will be done to growth and sentiment by new limitations on travel and other restrictions. We also have to recall that prior to this news, Europe was the epicenter of the latest wave of the delta variant and was already trading somewhat defensively. US President Biden is set to speak this evening on the new virus variant. The UN FAO will publish its monthly World Food Price Index on Thursday, and another strong read is expected, although the year-on-year increase look set to ease from 31.3%. November has been another strong month for the grains sector led by wheat due to strong demand and worries about the Australian harvest. Elsewhere Arabica coffee trades near a ten-year high on increased concerns about production in Brazil. Before Friday’s carnage across markets the Bloomberg Agriculture Spot index had reached a 5 ½-year high after rallying by 40% during the past year. Earnings Watch – earnings this week are light with the key ones to watch being Li Auto, Snowflake, Crowdstrike, Elastic, and DocuSign. Monday: Sino Biopharmaceutical, China Gas, Acciona, Li Auto Tuesday: Bank of Nova Scotia, Salesforce, Zscaler, NetApp, HP Enterprise Wednesday: Trip.com, Royal Bank of Canada, National Bank of Canada, Snowflake, Synopsys, Crowdstrike, Veeva Systems, Okta, Splunk, Elastic, Five Below Thursday: Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, Toronto-Dominion Bank, Cooper Cos, Marvell Technology, DocuSign, Ulta Beauty, Asana, Dollar General, Kroger Friday: Bank of Montreal Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0830 – Sweden Q3 GDP 0830 – ECB's Guindos to speak 0930 – UK Oct. Mortgage Approvals 1000 – Euro Zone Nov. Confidence Surveys 1130 – ECB's Schnabel to speak 1300 – Germany Nov. Flash CPI 1330 – Canada Oct. Industrial Product Prices 1530 – US Nov. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey 1715 – ECB President Lagarde to speak 2000 – US Fed’s Williams (voter) to speak 2005 – US Fed Chair Powell gives opening remarks at conference 2350 – Japan Oct. Industrial Production 0030 – Australia Oct. Building Approvals 0100 – China Nov. Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing PMI 0200 – Australia RBA’s Debelle to speak  Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher
AUDUSD shorts at 7210/00 worked perfectly after the sell signal targeting 7170/65 & 7120/10...

AUDUSD shorts at 7210/00 worked perfectly after the sell signal targeting 7170/65 & 7120/10...

Jason Sen Jason Sen 29.11.2021 11:45
AUDUSD shorts at 7210/00 worked perfectly after the sell signal targeting 7170/65 & 7120/10 for a potential 90 pips profit, with a low for the day exactly here. NZDUSD we wrote: hit the next target of 6855 as we look for 6810. This target was hit after a 57 pip drop. AUDJPY shorts at 8310/20 offered up to 200 pips profit on the slide to 8110/00. Longs were stopped below 8075 before we hit the next target of 8055/50, with a low for the day. Today's Analysis. AUDUSD shorts at 7210/00 working after the sell signal targeting 7170/65 & 7120/10. Further losses look likely when we open to first support at 7070/50 in oversold conditions. A break lower targets 7000. Gains are likely to be limited with minor resistance at 7150/55. Strong resistance at 7175/85. Shorts need stops above 7195 but try shorts again at 7215/25, with stops above 7235. NZDUSD hit the next targets of 6855 & 6810. Expect strong support at 6780/60. Longs need stops below 6730. Gains are likely to be limited with minor resistance at 6835 & strong resistance at 6855/65. Shorts need stops above 6875. Try shorts at 6890/6900, with stops above 6915. AUDJPY hit all the downside targets as far as 8055/50. Further losses meet very strong support at 8010/7990. Longs need stops below 7960. Gains are likely to be limited at this stage, with first resistance at 8110/30. Strong resistance at 8180/8200. Shorts need stops above 8220. USDJPY broke strong support at 114.20/10 for the next target of 113.40/30, before a bounce from 113.03. EURJPY collapsed to the only support for the week at 127.95/90. CADJPY shorts at 9100/9110 worked perfectly on the slide to 8900/8890 but we continued lower look to the next target of 8875/50. Update daily at 06:30 GMT Today's Analysis. USDJPY gains are likely to be limited with first resistance at 113.55/65. A better selling opportunity at 113.95/114.05, with stops above 114.20. Minor support at 113.10/00. A break below 112.90 targets the November low at 112.70 then strong support at 112.45/35. Try longs with stops below 112.20. EURJPY collapsed to the only support for the week at the August/September low at 127.95/90, with a good bounce from just 12 pips below. A break lower is obviously an important sell signal this week, with another 100 pip drop likely. Resistance at 128.60/70 but above 128.80 meets a selling opportunity at 129.10/20 with stops above 129.40. CADJPY strong support at 8850/30. Longs need stops below 8810. A break lower targets 8770/60 then 8710/00. Longs at 8850/30 target 8900/10, perhaps as far as first resistance at 8950/60. Try shorts with stops above 8975. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
Things are not adding up any longer in the car industry

Things are not adding up any longer in the car industry

Peter Garnry Peter Garnry 29.11.2021 13:49
Equities 2021-11-29 13:00 10 minutes to read Summary:  In today's equity research note we take a look at the global car industry. Since late 2005 it has been a low growth industry also reflected in the low total return of the industry prior to the pandemic. But during the pandemic and with the high revenue growth rates of pure electric vehicles makers the industry's combined market value across traditional carmakers and pure EV-makers has gone to unprecedented levels reflecting excessive expectations that we do not think can hold. The reason behind this is the acceleration in EV adoption and we provide concrete alternatives to bet on this transition without getting exposure to pure EV-makers with elevated equity valuations. Market value does not add up with structural growth profile This year should have been the year when the global car industry came back from the dismal 2020 impacted by the global pandemic and a 6% rise in global new passenger car registrations could be interpreted as the industry coming back. However, as the chart on car registrations in the US, Europe, and China shows, the global car market has been weakening the past couple of months and most notably in Europe. In fact, the combined new car registrations across the three largest car markets in the world are down 19% from the peak in August 2018. Since December 2015, global new car registrations have only grown by 1.8% annualized with a clear saturation starting in early 2017 and then turning into a longer term decline by late 2018. It seems that the global car market has become saturated and the pandemic exacerbated an already weak industry on the demand side. As demand came back, the car industry faced new issues on supplies of semiconductors. In the early days of the pandemic, car manufacturers cancelled orders on semiconductors as they believed demand to be weak for a long time, but as governments unleashed unprecedented stimulus economies weather the pandemic and with the vaccines approved in late 2020, the economy came roaring into 2021. But car manufacturers buy lower margin semiconductors and as they were late to come back ordering semiconductors, the semiconductor industry had already found willing buyers due to high demand on graphics cars for gaming and crypto, and semiconductors used in datacenters and computers. Car manufacturers were put back in line and have ever since scrambled to get priority causing production to be reduced on lack of semiconductors. The pandemic and climate change awareness also happened to ignite demand for electric vehicles (EVs) and the EV transition may have reached an inflection point where it is beginning to drive postponement of buying a gasoline car. Why buy a technology that is being phased out and why not buy an EV when governments are providing incentives to do so? Despite these structural challenges and low growth profile the MSCI World Automobile Index has exploded in value over the past 18 months driven by a bonanza in EV-makers and excessive expectations best exemplified around the Rivian IPO. From December 2005 to the peak in new car registrations in August 2018, the index gained 5.2% annualized compared to 3.9% annualized gains over the period in new car registrations. This highlights that market value more or less follows volume plus/minus changes in price mix and operating margins. With the recent gain in the global index on car manufacturer the industry’s market value has become completely unanchored to the underlying structural growth rate. The only explanation that can justify this is new car registrations quickly closes the drawdown from August 2018 and that EVs can be manufactured at higher operating margins, but this requires that competitive forces do not force retail prices on new cars down to the old profitability level on gasoline cars. Source: Bloomberg EV bonanza will end in a graveyard The key change in the car industry is the production ramp-up of EVs as consumers are increasingly demanding these new cars. Public markets have been flooded with new car companies producing only EVs and the market is currently putting a higher market value on the 11 largest EV-makers compared to the 11 largest traditional carmakers. As we have written in previous research notes this reflects excessive expectations on EVs that we find difficult to justify given the structural growth profile of the overall car industry. Having said that the outlook for cars over the coming three decades is clearly in our view. ICEs will experience a negative growth profile while EVs will have a steep growth curve over the next 10 years before gradually slowing down. But are pure EV-makers the best play? At current market values, we believe expectations are set above what these companies can deliver and we encourage investors to find other ways to bet on the high growth rates in EVs. One way is to find exposure among semiconductor companies with exposure to cars, lithium miners or battery makers for the batteries to EVs. The list below highlights a few names across this supply chain for EVs. Infineon Technologies (semiconductors) NXP (semiconductors) Renesas (semiconductors) Texas Instruments (semiconductors) STMicroelectronics (semiconductors) Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium (lithium miner) Albemarle (lithium miner) SQM (lithium miner) Livent (lithium miner) Orocobre (lithium miner) Panasonic (battery) QuantumScape (battery) TDK (battery) Gotion High-tech (battery) Varta (battery) Should carmakers spin off their EV units? Given the market value on pure EV-makers the traditional carmakers should in our view consider spinning out their EV units into separate businesses with their own public listing, but maintaining majority shareholder control. The higher market value for a pure EV-business could be used to raise significant amount of capital to accelerate growth in production, but a separate business unit could reduce friction from internal culture and political fights. The recent problems internally at VW show that labour unions and workers in the traditional internal combustion engine divisions will make the transition difficult. Porsche is a good bet on a specific EV spinoff from a traditional carmaker and something that could yield a significant valuation improvement. Porsche is aiming to get 40% of revenue from EVs in 2025. If traditional carmakers are not spinning off their EV units, we believe they will have difficulties keeping up with pure EV-makers.
Day That Changed the World?

Day That Changed the World?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 29.11.2021 15:48
S&P 500 and pretty much everything apart from Treasuries and safe haven plays down precipitously, with panic hitting oil the hardest. The post Thanksgiving session turned out not so light volume one, but the fear wasn‘t sending every risk-on asset cratering by a comparable amount. What we have seen, is an overreaction to uncertainty (again, we‘re hearing contagion and fatality rate speculations – this time coupled with question mark over vaccine efficiency for this alleged variant), and the real question is the real world effect of this announcement, also as seen in the authorities‘ reactions. Lockdowns or semi-equivalent curbs to economic activity are clearly feared, and the focus remains on the demand side for now, but supply would inevitably suffer as well. Do you believe the Fed would sit idly as the economic data deteriorate? Only if they don‘t extend a helping hand, we are looking at a sharp selloff. Given the political realities, that‘s unlikely to happen – the inflation fighting effect of this fear-based contraction would be balanced out before it gets into a self-reinforcing loop. With the fresh stimulus checks lining up the pocket books, Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit etc., we‘re almost imperceptibly moving closer to some form of universal basic income. Again, unless the governments go the hard lockdown route over scary medical prognostications (doesn‘t seem to be the case now), such initiatives would cushion financial markets‘ selloffs. Looking at Friday‘s price action, PMs retreat shows that all won‘t be immediately well in commodities, where oil looks the most vulnerable to fresh bad news in the short run (while stocks would remain volatile, they would find footing earliest). Demand destruction fears are though overblown, but the dust looks to need more time to settle than it appeared on Friday above $72-$73: (…) New corona variant fears hit the airwaves, and markets are selling off hard. We can look forward for a light volume and volatile session today – S&P 500 downswing will likely be cushioned by the tech, but high beta plays will be very subdued. Commodities are suffering, and especially oil is spooked by looming (how far down the road and in what form, that’s anyone’s guess) economic activity curbs / reopening hits. Precious metals are acting as safe havens today (mainly gold) while the dollar is retreating – and so will yields, at least for the moment. Time for readjustment as the wide stop-loss in oil was hit overnight – it’s my view that the anticipated demand destruction taken against the supply outlook, is overrated. When the (rational / irrational) fears start getting ignored by the markets, we‘re on good track. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 is still far out of the woods, and a good sign of better days approaching would be tech and healthcare sound performance joined by financials and energy clearly on the mend. Earliest though, HYG should turn. Credit Markets It‘s too early to call a budding reversal in credit markets – HYG needs to not merely retrace half of its daily trading decline. Money coming out of hiding in Treasuries, would be a precondition of prior trends returning. They will – they had been merely punctured. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals gave up opening gains, and with the hit to inflation expectations, lost the developing tailwind. It would though come back in an instant once calm minds prevail or fresh stimulus gets sniffed out. Crude Oil Crude oil had a catastrophic day – how far are we along capitulation, remains to be seen. The oil sector didn‘t decline by nearly as much, highlighting the overdone and panicky liquidation in black gold. Copper Copper decline didn‘t happen on nearly as high volume as in oil, making the red metal the likelier candidate for a rebound as the sky isn‘t falling. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum marching up on the weekend, were a positive omen for the above mentioned asset classes. In spite of cryptos still being subdued, the overall mood is one of catious optimism and risk very slowly returning. Summary Friday‘s rout isn‘t a one-off event probably, and S&P 500 would turn higher probably earlier than quite a few commodities. Cynically said, the variant fears let inflation to cool off temporarily, even as CPI clearly hasn‘t topped yet. As demand destruction was all the rage on Friday, supply curbs would get into focus next, helping the CRB Index higher – and that‘s the worst case scenario. Precious metals certainly don‘t look to be on the brink of a massive liquidation – the current selloff can‘t be compared to spring 2020. For now, the price recovery across the board remains the question of policy, of policy errors. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Feeling the Quickly Changing Pulse

Feeling the Quickly Changing Pulse

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 30.11.2021 16:15
S&P 500 rebound still ran into selling pressure before the close – the bulls lost momentum however well the government and Fed‘s words were received. Credit markets hold the key – specifically, how corporate bonds and Treasuries perform compared to each other. This would be also reflected in the yield spreads, dollar moves, or cylicals vs. stay-at-home stocks.Today‘s analysis will be shorter than usually, so let‘s dive into the charts to fulfill my title‘s objective (all charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is still far out of the woods, and the bulls have to decidedly repel any selling pressure - a good sign of which would be a close in the 4,670s.Credit MarketsAs encouraging as the HYG upswing is, it‘s too early to call a budding reversal a done deal. LQD to TLT performance is a good start, which however needs to continue. The worst for the bulls would be renewed rush into Treasuries, sending other parts of the bond market relatively down.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals retreated again, but the bullish case is very far from lost. As discussed in the caption, the upswing appears a question of time – gold and silver are ready to turn on soothing language of fresh accomodation.Crude OilCrude oil upswing left a lot to be desired and as I tweeted yesterday, remains the most vulnerable within commodities. The dust clearly hasn‘t settled yet within energy broadly speaking.CopperCopper held up considerably better than many other commodities, and gives the impression of sideways trading followed by a fresh upswing as having the highest probability to happen next.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum marching up today, is a positive omen for gradual and picky return of risk-on trades. The overall mood is still one of catious optimism.SummaryFriday‘s rout hasn‘t been reversed entirely, and markets remain vulnerable to fresh negative headlines. The degree to which current ones (relatively positive ones, it must be said) helped, is a testament of volatility being apt to return at a moment‘s notice. I‘m certainly not looking for the developments to break inflation‘s back – CPI clearly hasn‘t peaked. Precious metals are well positioned to appreciate when faced with any grim news necessitating fresh monetary or fiscal activism.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
COT: Speculative positioning ahead of Fridays omicron dump

COT: Speculative positioning ahead of Fridays omicron dump

Ole Hansen Ole Hansen 30.11.2021 18:42
Commodities 2021-11-30 10:30 Summary:  Futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities, forex and financials up until last Tuesday, November 23. While a lot of water has flowed under the bridge since last Tuesday, it is nevertheless interesting, not least considering the report encapsulated the market reaction to last weeks renomination of Fed chair Powell which helped send both treasury yields and the dollar sharply higher, as well as the oil market reaction to the coordinated SPR release announcement. Finally, it also gives us an idea about the level of positioning ahead of Friday's omicron related sell off Saxo Bank publishes weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial. Link to latest report The below summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities, forex and financials up until last Tuesday, November 23. The report normally released on Friday's was delayed due to last weeks Federal holidays, and while a lot of water has flowed under the bridge, its nevertheless interesting. Not least considering the report encapsulated the market reaction to last weeks renomination of Fed chair Powell which helped send both treasury yields and the dollar sharply higher, as well as the oil market reaction to the coordinated SPR release announcement. Also it gives a good idea about how funds and speculators were positioned ahead of the sharp risk off to the new omicron virus variant. Commodities The commodity sector saw sizable shift out of energy and metals into the agriculture sector where all 13 futures contracts covered in this update saw net buying. During the week the energy sector lost 2.1% while precious metals dropped 4.3% after gold broke below key support at $1830. A 1.5% rise in copper was not enough to convince speculators who cut their net long by 20%. Most noticeable however was the strong buying seen across the agriculture sector, with strong demand and weather worries more than offsetting the headwind caused by the stronger dollar. Energy: Crude oil, both Brent and WTI, were sold ahead of the coordinated SPR release announcement last Tuesday. The combined net long dropped by 14k lots to a one-year low at 514.6k lots. The loss of price momentum during the past few months has, despite an overriding bullish sentiment in the market, been driving the reduction, and following Friday's 10% price collapse these traders have been rewarded for sticking to the signals the market was sending instead of listening to bullish price forecasts. Hedge funds are not "married" to their positions hence their better ability to respond to changes in the technical and/or fundamental outlook.Metals: Having increase bullish gold bets by 65k lots during the previous two weeks, funds were forced to make 45k lots reduction last week in response to the Powell renomination sending gold sharply lower and below support in the $1830-35 area. Speculators have been whipsawed by the price action in recent weeks and it helps to explain why they are in no mood to reenter in size despite renewed support from Covid19 angst. Silver's 6% sell off during the week helped trigger a 17% reduction in the net long to 30k lots while in copper a small price increase was not enough to stem the slide in net length. Following seven weeks of selling, the net length has dropped by 64% to 19.5k lots, a 13-week low. Months of rangebound behaviour has reduced investor focus, and until we see High Grade Copper make an attempt to break its current $4.2 to $4.5 range, the level of positioning is likely to remain muted. Agriculture:  More concerned with other drivers such as weather, strong demand and supply chain disruptions helped trigger across the board buying of all 13 futures contracts split into grains, softs and livestock. The combined long held across these contracts reached a six-month high at 1.13 million lots, representing a nominal value of $43.5 billion. Buying was broad with the top three being corn, sugar and soybeans. Elsewhere the net long in Arabica coffee reached a fresh five-year high at 58k lots and KCB wheat a four-year high at 65.6k lots. UPDATES from today's Market Quick TakeCrude oil (OILUKJAN22 & OILUSJAN21) turned sharply lower in early European trading as the mood across markets soured on renewed concerns about the omicron virus strain. This after Moderna’s head told the Financial Times that existing vaccines will be less effective at tackling omicron and it may take months before variant-specific jabs are available at scale. The news come days before the OPEC+ group of producers meet to discuss production levels for January. Brent crude oil already heading for its biggest monthly loss since March 2020 trades below its 200-day moving average for the first time in a year, a sign that more weakness may lie ahead, thereby raising the prospect for OPEC+ deciding to pause or perhaps even make a temporary production cut. Gold (XAUUSD) received a muted bid overnight in response to the omicron virus comments from the head of Moderna (see oil section above). In addition, comments from Fed chair Powell helped reduced 2022 rate expectations from three to two after he said the omicron virus posed risks to both sides of the central bank’s mandate for stable prices and maximum employment. Despite this development together with softer Treasury yields and a weaker dollar, gold continues to struggle attracting a safe-haven bid. Silver (XAGUSD) looks even worse having dropped to a six-week low on weakness spilling over from industrial metals. Forex:Broad dollar buying following Fed chair Powell's renomination helped drive a 20% increase in the greenback long against ten IMM currency futures and the Dollar index to $25.4 billion and near a two-year high. All the currencies tracked in this saw net selling with the biggest contributors being euro (12.6k lots), CAD (11.8k) and JPY (4.1). The net short on the latter reached 97.2k lots or the equivalent of $10.6 billion, a short of this magnitude helps explain the strength of the sell off in USDJPY since last Thursday when safe haven demand picked up as the omicron news began to spread. Despite hitting a 16-month low last week the euro short only reached 12.6k lots, a far cry from the -114k lots reached during the panic month of February last year when the pair briefly traded below €1.08. What is the Commitments of Traders report? The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class. Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and otherFinancials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and otherForex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators) The reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of the highlighted groups are: They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming
Emini S&P December rocketed back to my selling opportunity at 4660/65.

Emini S&P December rocketed back to my selling opportunity at 4660/65.

Jason Sen Jason Sen 30.11.2021 15:26
Emini S&P December rocketed back to my selling opportunity at 4660/65. Shorts here worked perfectly with a high for the day just 4 points above & an over night collapse to 4582 as I write. Outlook remains negative after last week's bearish engulfing candle. Nasdaq December unexpectedly shot higher to strong resistance at 16400/450. Shorts here worked perfectly with a high for the day here as we sell off towards 16200. Emini Dow Jones December shot higher towards strong resistance at 35300/350 but we only reach 35234. Outlook remains negative. Update daily at 07:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Emini S&P holding below 4600/4395 in what looks like a developing bear trend keeps the pressure on to test very strong support at 4560/50 & also the measured target for the completed head & shoulders sell signal. Therefore worth trying longs with stops below 4540. A break lower however is a sell signal targeting 4505/00. First resistance at 4625/30 but above 4635 can retest our selling opportunity at 4660/65. Try shorts with stops above 4670. A break higher targets 4685/90. Nasdaq December minor support at 16200/150 but outlook is more negative after the weekly bearish engulfing candle. A retest of last week's low at 16000/15988 is likely. A break below here is an important sell signal, expected to target support at 15880/830. This is likely to hold the first test although longs could be risky. A break lower sees 15830/880 act as resistance to target 15700 & 15600/550. Strong resistance at strong resistance at 16400/450. Stop above 16470. A break higher is a buy signal targeting 16550/580. Emini Dow Jones December broke support at 34800/750 this morning so holding below here targets 34550 & the measured target for the head & shoulders at 34450/350 (hit this morning exactly as I write) & as far as the 200 day moving average at 34250/200. Longs look risky. Eventually we could reach strong support at 33700/650. Longs need stops below 33500. Gains are likely to be limited with first resistance at 34750/800 but above 34850 opens the door to 35000/100, perhaps as far as strong resistance at 35300/350. Try shorts with stops above 35450 To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
Ahead Of The US CPI, Speaking Of Crude Oil And Metals - Saxo Market Call

Market Quick Take - December 1, 2021

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 01.12.2021 09:27
Macro 2021-12-01 08:45 6 minutes to read Summary:  Even more whiplash for global markets yesterday as Fed Chair Powell has clearly set an entirely different tone ahead of his new term as Fed Chair, saying that it was time to retire the word transitory when discussing inflation and pointing to accelerating the slowing of Fed asset purchases, among other comments. This led to a sharp repricing of Fed expectations higher just after they had been taken sharply lower by the news of the omicron covid variant. What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - the initial reaction to Powell’s statement about retiring “transitory” inflation was lower equities and higher interest rates, but the subsequent price action has not followed through. Nasdaq 100 futures, which are the most interest rate sensitive, are trading at the high end of the recent trading range around the 16,380 level with the obvious resistance level at 16,438. Short-term the price action way be confusing with low signal-to-noise ratio, but our view has been clear for over a year, and that is, that inflation is coming and in size not seen in many decades. This will have a negative effect on the most richly valued equities such as our bubble basket on stocks. Stoxx 50 (EU50.I) - one would think that Powell’s comments on inflation would lift value stocks and interest rates, and thereby creating a bigger rebound in European equities, but that is not what we are observing this morning. Stoxx 50 futures are trading around the 4,100 level with an important resistance level at 4,125; if this level can be overcome then our view is that Stoxx 50 futures could go to 4,200 and test the 200-day moving average. USDJPY and JPY crosses – whiplash for JPY cross traders yesterday, as the hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell on inflation took Fed expectations for next year sharply back higher. Longer US yields, to which USDJPY is normally more sensitive, were less impacted, somewhat muting the impact on USDJPY, but the development came at a critical time, just after USDJPY had dipped below 112.73 range support yesterday. The reversal is a tentative sign that the pair will avoid pushing lower, but we would likely need to see the entire US yield curve lifting to have support for a renewed rally focusing on the 115.00+ recent top. EURUSD - will the ECB be forced to change its tune? Christine Lagarde’s insistence that inflation is a temporary phenomenon is under severe strain, even as she has been out this week defending this viewpoint, as was the ECB’s Schnabel, who boldly claimed that the November CPI data (more below) would prove the peak of the cycle. EURUSD churned sharply yesterday from a high of 1.1383 to a low of 1.1236 on the Fed Powell comments (below) before rebounding to 1.1336. The resilience later in the day despite a sharp repricing of Fed expectations is an interesting development, but the price action would need to threaten above 1.1500 to point to a technical reversal of the recent large sell-off. Crude oil (OILUKFEB22 & OILUSJAN21) trades sharply higher after hitting a three-month low on Tuesday in response to omicron related demand worries and general weak risk sentiment following Fed chair Powell’s comments on inflation. The market attention now turns to tomorrow’s OPEC+ meeting where the group may decide to pause production hikes while signaling a willingness to cut production should the demand suffer from fresh initiatives to curb mobility, especially for overseas travel. As a sideshow, the EIA will release its weekly inventory report later with the API reporting a 0.7m barrels draw in crude oil stock while fuel stocks rose. Gold (XAUUSD) trades higher after once again recovering from a Powell statement. Yesterday the Fed chair confirmed his recent change in focus away from creating jobs towards increasing efforts to curb elevated inflation. Risk appetite took another setback on the news but has recovered overnight as traders weighed positive regional economic data and divided views from drugmakers over how effective existing vaccines are against omicron. Overall, gold chart looks increasingly messy with no clear signal to be found at present. A break above the 21-DMA at $1820 is needed to spark fresh momentum interest while support continues to be found below $1780. US Treasuries (IEF, TLT). Powell’s testimony in front of the senate put things in perspective: inflation is not transitory, and the Federal Reserve will use its tools to stop it. These words provoked a fast bear-flattening of the yield curve where short term yields rose faster than log-term yields were dropping. We expect this trend to continue throughout winter as a new wave of covid will pin down the long part of the yield curve, but the Fed is likely to accelerate the pace of tapering. An inversion risk cannot be excluded. The 20s30s part of the yield curve is already inverted, while the 7s10s is just 7bps to get inverted. Although the 2s10s and 5s30s spreads are much wider, any flattening can pose a threat to next year’s Fed’s interest rate hike agenda. Powell and Yellen will testify again in front of the Senate today. Job numbers remain a big focus for Friday. US junk bonds (HYG, JNK). According to Bloomberg Barclays indexes, junk bonds’ OAS widened by 30bps to 330bps amid Friday’s selloff reflecting the lack of liquidity in markets. Despite negative real rates continuing to support corporate bond valuations, it’s safe to expect junk bond spreads to widen throughout the end of the year amid poor liquidity. If the volatility in rates remains sustained, the widening of spreads could accelerate, posing a threat also for stocks. German Bunds (IS0L) and Italian BTPS (BTP10). Inflation accelerated more than expected in the Eurozone during the month of November setting the yearly figure to 4.9%. Inflation figures together with the new German government adds to the catalysts of higher Bund yields. However, covid distortions are keeping yield in check. We exclude Bund yield to rise to test 0% until the new wave of covid eases. However, as soon as the worries concerning covid ease, they will resume their rise. What is going on? Fed Chair Powell confirms that Fed emphasis has shifted to inflationary risks. In testimony before a Senate committee yesterday, Fed Chair Powell waxed far more hawkish than the market anticipated on inflation concerns, saying outright that it is time to retire the word “transitory” regarding the description of inflation, that “the risk of higher inflation has increased” and that “the risk of persistent high inflation is also a major risk to getting back to such a labor market.“ (referring to the pre-pandemic labor market). Powell also pointed to the likelihood that the Fed would wind down Fed balance sheet expansion more quickly than previously anticipated: “perhaps a few months sooner”. In response, expectations for Fed rate hikes next year were jolted back higher, just after they had been jolted lower by the omicron covid variant news. Hot EU CPI numbers for November. Preliminary headline November EU CPI was out at 4.9% year-on-year, far above the 4.5% expected and the 4.1% in October and by far the highest inflation print since the launch of the euro. Core CPI rose to 2.6% year-on-year, above the 2.3% expected and the October level of 2.0%. This is also the highest level since the launch of the euro in 1999. Germany’s incoming chancellor Scholz speaks on inflation, compulsory covid vaccination. The political pressure on the ECB to act is ratcheting higher after incoming German chancellor Scholz said that action must be taken if inflation fails to drop, though he seemed now to accept the notion that inflation is linked to covid measures and the spike in energy prices. He also spoke yesterday in favor of mandatory covid shots. Salesforce shares down 6% on Q4 guidance. Investors are used to being spoiled by Salesforce with consistently beating analyst expectations, but last night the cloud application software company disappointed on Q4 guidance with revenue in line and adj EPS at $0.72-0.73 vs est. $0.82. The company also announced that Bret Taylor will become co-CEO next to founder Marc Benioff in a sign that the founder may soon step down like so many other technology founders in recent years. What are we watching next? Markets adjusting to new reality of a more hawkish Fed. In particular if the omicron variant of the covid virus proves a temporary distraction, global markets will need to adjust the major adjustment in the Federal Reserve’s focus and what that could mean for the US dollar and asset valuations ahead. Fed Chair Powell’s rhetoric yesterday likely mean a heightened reactivity to incoming data from here on out, all modulated in the very near term by headline risks in either direction on the omicron variant. The first major data points are the ISM Service index and November jobs report up on Friday. The Average Hourly Earnings could take over in importance from the payrolls change number if it shows more aggressive rises, as it seems clear that labor supply is the chief problem US companies face, as seen in record job availability and “quits” as workers leave jobs for greener pastures. ADP employment figures for November. With the US economy operating at full capacity according to estimates from CBO, continued strong job gains will add fuel to the “inflation fire”, so today’s ADP figures could more interest rates and equities. Economists are looking at 525K vs 571K in October which would be a significant two-month change for an economy that has closed the output gap, but on the other hand, the US economy is still short around 8.5mn jobs from current levels to where employment would have been if we did not have the pandemic. Earnings Watch – growth investors will have their eyes on Snowflake set to report after the market close with analysts expecting FY22 Q3 (ending 31 Oct) revenue growth of 92% y/y. Crowdstrike, being one of the fastest growing cyber security companies in the world, will also be key to watch today. Wednesday: Trip.com, Royal Bank of Canada, National Bank of Canada, Snowflake, Synopsys, Crowdstrike, Veeva Systems, Okta, Splunk, Elastic, Five Below Thursday: Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, Toronto-Dominion Bank, Cooper Cos, Marvell Technology, DocuSign, Ulta Beauty, Asana, Dollar General, Kroger Friday: Bank of Montreal Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0730 – Switzerland Nov. CPI 0815-0900 – Euro Zone Final Nov. Manufacturing PMI 1315 – US Nov. ADP Employment Change 1330 – Canada Oct. Building Permits 1445 – US Nov. Final Markit Manufacturing PMI 1500 – US Fed Chair Powell, Treasury Secretary Yellen to testify before House panel 1500 – US Nov. ISM Manufacturing 1530 – DOE’s Weekly Crude Oil and Fuel Inventories 1900 - Fed Beige Book 0030 – Australia Oct. Trade Balance   Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Treads Water

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Treads Water

John Benjamin John Benjamin 01.12.2021 08:17
USDCAD seeks support The Canadian dollar edged higher after Q3’s GDP beat expectations. A bullish MA cross on the daily chart indicates a bullish bias in the US dollar’s favor. The break above the resistance at 1.2770 suggests that the bulls retain control of the direction. An overbought RSI has tempered the bullish fever temporarily, which may be an opportunity for buyers to accumulate. September’s high at 1.2900 is the next target. A bullish breakout could trigger an extended rally towards 1.3100. 1.2730 is now fresh support. AUDUSD falls towards 11-month low The Australian dollar bounced back on upbeat GDP in Q3. The break below 0.7170 has negated October’s rally. A bearish MA cross on the daily chart confirms that sentiment has turned sour. The Aussie is heading to October 2020’s low and the psychological level of 0.7000. An oversold RSI has prompted sellers to start to cover in that congestion area. 0.7190 is a resistance from the previous demand zone and trend followers are likely to sell a rebound. Buyers will need to take out those offers to ease the pressure. UK 100 to test daily support The FTSE 100 struggles with doubts about vaccine efficacy against the omicron variant. A drop below the daily support at 7190 triggered a sharp liquidation. Then a short-lived rebound has met stiff selling pressure at 7170. The index is hovering above the origin of the October rally at 6945. The bulls will need to clear the resistance before they could hope for a recovery. Otherwise, a bearish breakout would send the price to test the triple bottom (6830) from the daily timeframe. And that is the key to the uptrend’s integrity in the medium term.
Twitter steps out of Dorsey’s shadow

Twitter steps out of Dorsey’s shadow

Peter Garnry Peter Garnry 30.11.2021 17:54
Equities 2021-11-30 14:30 6 minutes to read Summary:  Twitter's founder Jack Dorsey is stepping down as CEO leaving the reign to CTO Parag Agrawal. This is hopefully the beginning of a new trajectory for Twitter that has underperformed relative to its potential for way too long. The company has two main objectives. Lift revenue growth to around 30% which would put Twitter well above Facebook and Alphabet in terms of growth, and then drastically improve the operating margin to around 35% which would be almost double of the current level. Is this Twitter’s Nadella moment? Another technology founder in Silicon Valley is leaving the stage, Mark Zuckerberg of Meta is one of the few left, with Jack Dorsey stepping down as CEO after presumed a lot of pressure from shareholders such as the activist hedge fund Elliott Management. His successor is the CTO Parag Agrawal and Dorsey will stay on the board for 2022. The main question is whether this is Twitter’s Nadella moment (Nadella is the current CEO of Microsoft and took over in 2014) meaning whether the new CEO with less strings attached and not being a founder can drastically change the growth and product profile of the company. Too much fat Our main issue with Twitter has always been the lack of consistency in operating margins. Given how consistent Google and Facebook are running their business it has always been a mystery why Twitter has not been more consistent in its operating performance. The company’s operating margin has come down for three straight quarters despite a healthy backdrop for online advertising spending in terms of demand and pricing. Free cash flow generation has been very disappointing over the past year and ultimately that has been driving the share price lower. Twitter has to fundamentally improve the EBITDA margin from its current 18.5% to somewhere closer to 35%; it will be a stretch to demand Facebook-like margin of 50%. If Twitter’s new CEO can deliver that then shareholders are in for some great returns. But more importantly there are no excuses for not delivering high revenue growth while improving the operating margin when you are generating $5bn in annual revenue. Facebook and many other technology companies have been able to grow revenue and operating margin at the same time. Twitter must do the same. Source: Bloomberg So there are two operating yardsticks for shareholders: revenue growth and operating margin. The latter should easily be done by either reducing headcount or at least stop hiring more people at the same pace as before. On revenue growth the key yardstick is to grow faster than the duopoly (Meta and Alphabet) which is expected to grow revenue around 20-25%. Twitter needs to take market share and get closer to Snap revenue growth in order not to lose the narrative and sentiment from investors. In our book, Twitter should be able to grow 30-35% on improved engagement, product features, more brand spending from large brands etc. and with analysts currently estimating 21% revenue growth in 2022, there is a heavy and urgent task ahead for the new CEO. Source: Bloomberg Twitter is an acquisition target With Dorsey gone as CEO and eventually leaving the board by late 2022, it clears the way for an acquisition of the company should the right buyer with the right price come by. Twitter could be an interesting bolt-on acquisition for a traditional media company that wants to enter the social media industry. Investors were initially trading the shares higher on the news of Dorsey stepping down, but the shares ended lower for the session now down 43% from the peak in late February. Given the expectations from earlier this year it is clear that the company has not performed as expected and the new CEO Agrawal will have to quickly earn the trust of investors. For Twitter we really hope this is the company’s Nadella moment. Analysts remain positive on the stock with a 12-month price target of $68 which 49% above yesterday’s close.
The Fed Worries About Inflation. Should We Worry About Gold?

The Fed Worries About Inflation. Should We Worry About Gold?

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 30.11.2021 16:43
Oops!... Gold did it again and declined below $1,800 last week. What’s happening in the gold market? Did you enjoy your roast turkey? I hope so, and I hope that its taste – and Thanksgiving in general – sweetened the recent declines in gold prices. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal (London P.M. Fix) plunged from above $1,860 two weeks ago to above $1,780 last week. It has slightly rebounded since then, but, well, only slightly. What exactly happened? Funny thing, but actually nothing revolutionary. After all, the reappointment of the same man as the Fed Chair and the publication of the FOMC minutes from the meeting that had already took place earlier in November, were the highlights before Thanksgiving. Well, sometimes lack of changes is a change itself and information about the past can shed some light on the future. Let’s start from Powell’s renomination for the second term as the Federal Reserve chair. In response, the market bets that the Fed will hike interest rates more aggressively in 2022 have increased. At first glance, the strong investors’ reaction seems strange, given that the monetary policy shouldn’t radically change with Powell still at the helm. However, the continuation of Powell’s leadership implies that Lael Brainard, regarded as more dovish than Powell, won’t become the new Fed Chair – what was expected by some market participants. Hence, the dovish scenario won’t materialize, which is hawkish for gold. Just two days later, the FOMC revealed the minutes from its November meeting. The main message – the Fed decided to taper its quantitative easing – was, of course, included in the post-meeting statement. The minutes revealed, however, that the Fed officials had become more worried about inflation and had expressed a more hawkish stance than the statement suggested. First of all, we learned from the minutes that some central bankers opted for more aggressive tapering and a more flexible approach that would allow for adjustments in the face of high and persistent inflation: Some participants preferred a somewhat faster pace of reductions that would result in an earlier conclusion to net purchases (…). Some participants suggested that reducing the pace of net asset purchases by more than $15 billion each month could be warranted so that the Committee would be in a better position to make adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, particularly in light of inflation pressures. Various participants noted that the Committee should be prepared to adjust the pace of asset purchases and raise the target range for the federal funds rate sooner than participants currently anticipated if inflation continued to run higher than levels consistent with the Committee's objectives (…) participants noted that the Committee would not hesitate to take appropriate actions to address inflation pressures that posed risks to its longer-run price stability and employment objectives. This is because the FOMC members’ concerns about inflation strengthened. As we can read in the minutes, They indicated that their uncertainty regarding this assessment had increased. Many participants pointed to considerations that might suggest that elevated inflation could prove more persistent. These participants noted that average inflation already exceeded 2 percent when measured on a multiyear basis and cited a number of factors—such as businesses' enhanced scope to pass on higher costs to their customers, the possibility that nominal wage growth had become more sensitive to labor market pressures, or accommodative financial conditions—that might result in inflation continuing at elevated levels. Last but not least, the Fed officials also made other hawkish comments. Some participants argued that labor force participation would be lower than before the pandemic because of structural reasons. It implies that we are closer to reaching the “full employment”, so monetary policy could be less accommodative. What’s more, “some participants highlighted the fact that price increases had become more widespread”, while a couple of them noted possible signs that inflation expectations had become less anchored. So, the Fed officials’ worries about inflation strengthened. Implications for Gold What does it all imply for the gold market? Well, both the reappointment of Powell as the Fed Chair and the latest FOMC minutes were interpreted as hawkish, which pushed gold prices down. The more upbeat prospects for monetary tightening are clearly negative for the yellow metal, as they boosted the bond yields (see the chart below). This is something I warned investors against earlier this month. I wrote in the Fundamental Gold Report on November 16 that “when something reaches the bottom, it should rebound later. And if real interest rates start to rally, then gold could struggle again.” This is exactly what happened. Later, in the article on November 18, I added that “I will feel more confident about the strength of the recent rally when gold rises above $1,900”. Well, gold failed to do this, so I’m not particularly bullish on gold right now. We could say that gold did it again: it played with the hearts of gold bulls but got lost in the game, as it didn’t resist the pressure. Yes, the new Omicron variant of coronavirus has been noted, and uncertainty about this strain could provide short-term support for the yellow metal. However, it seems that the prospects of monetary tightening and higher real interest rates will continue to put downward pressure on gold prices. I agree, the rally looked refreshing after months of disappointment. However, it seems that we have to wait longer, possibly for the start of the Fed’s increasing the interest rates, to see gold truly shining. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Dogecoin price could see 400% gains if DOGE holders band together

Dogecoin price could see 400% gains if DOGE holders band together

FXStreet News FXStreet News 30.11.2021 17:39
Dogecoin price is moving sideways after a breakout from a descending triangle pattern. A potential 400% move to $1.08 will face obstacles up to $0.35, beyond which, DOGE should rally swiftly. On-chain metrics are hinting at an increase in large transactions and a paradigm shift in the nature of holders. Dogecoin price is at a crucial tipping point in its evolution with the potential for it to trigger a massive volatile move. Hurdles exist, however, that will make it difficult to reach its intended target, of a new all-time high. Dogecoin price at make or break levels Dogecoin price has set up three lower highs and two higher lows, which when connected using trend lines reveals a descending triangle. This technical formation forecasts a 361% upswing to $1.09, obtained by adding the distance between the first swing high and low to the breakout point at $0.24. DOGE breached the triangle’s hypotenuse on October 18 at $0.24. Since this point, the meme coin has struggled to move higher but failed. Interestingly, Dogecoin price has been moving sideways and has retested the $0.193 support level thrice since August 3 with the latest revisit on November 26. This created a triple-tap setup, a bullish technical formation that forecasts a reversal in the trend. Since Shiba Inu has stolen DOGE’s spotlight, things have been calm and consolidative for the original meme coin. If the buying pressure increases, however, pushing Dogecoin price to pierce through the $0.29 level to $0.35, and it produces a daily close above it, it will trigger an uptrend. In this scenario, it will allow market makers to collect the sell-stop liquidity resting above $0.35. This development will allow DOGE to create a platform for the next leg-up at $0.44. Clearing this hurdle will open the path to retest the current all-time high for Dogecoin price at $0.74. According to this prediction, DOGE could extend its bull rally to tag $1.09, its intended target. Due to the recent downswing, this upswing will represent a 400% gain from the current position at $0.22. DOGE/USDT 1-day chart As mentioned earlier, Shiba Inu seems to have siphoned off the hype, investors, and capital from Dogecoin, affecting its price, but things seem to be reverting, with some on-chain metrics suggesting a flip of the narrative is possible. On-chain metrics predict a bright future Looking at the transaction data tells a story about the nature of investors. Large transactions track transfers that are $100,000 or more. An increase in this metric serves as a proxy for institutions and their investment thesis. Over the past six months, the number of such transactions has increased by 70.7% from 1,570 to 2,680. This uptick in the metric suggests that high networth investors are starting to take interest in DOGE at the current price levels. DOGE large transaction chart While the above metric provides an insight into the potential investments, IntoTheBlock’s Global In/Out of the Money (GIOM) model shows where significant blockades are present. This fundamental index reveals that the DOGE will face formidable challenges ranging from $0.30 to $0.34. Here roughly 500,000 addresses that purchased 47 billion DOGE are “Out of the Money” and are likely to sell to breakeven, increasing the selling pressure. If buyers overcome this uptick in sell-side momentum and produce a daily close above $0.35, however, it will clear the daily demand mentioned above. This move will also open the path up for market makers to collect liquidity. All in all, this on-chain metric also promotes a bullish idea for DOGE with a contingency that the bullish momentum pushes the meme coin above $0.35. DOGE GIOM chart While the on-chain metrics described above serve as a tailwind for the bullish thesis, the new addresses joining the network add a dent to it. This metric shows that new users joining the Dogecoin network over the past six months have declined by 34.7% from 34,320 to 22,380. This reduction indicates that despite the capital inflows observed in the large transaction metric, a majority of investors are not yet interested in DOGE. Hence, this divergence between the new addresses and the large transaction chart paints indecision. DOGE new addresses chart The discrepancy noticed above can be explained in the holders’ chart which shows a paradigm shift. In November 2020, the composition of DOGE investors was 74.2% holders (1+ years), 18.6% Cruisers (1 month to 1 year) and 7.2% traders (less than a month). As of November 2021, this composition has changed and shows that cruisers are currently dominating with a 50.7% stake, while holders have dropped to 42.1%. This drastic decrease in the long-term holders suggests that these investors have been distributing their holdings over the past year ie., indicating increased sell-side pressure, which adds credence to DOGE’s lackluster performance over the period. In summary, if long-term holders stop offloading their DOGE holdings, investors can expect Dogecoin price to start inflating. DOGE Ownership chart On the other hand, if the selling pressure increases, knocking Dogecoin price below the $0.193 support level, it will lead to a retest of the descending triangle’s base at $0.16. If the bears produce a daily candlestick below this crucial barrier, it will open up DOGE to a massive 45% crash to $0.09, with a potential pitstop at $0.12.  
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Seeks Support - 30.11.2021

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Seeks Support - 30.11.2021

John Benjamin John Benjamin 30.11.2021 09:27
USDJPY tests daily support The yen consolidates gains after a drop in Japan’s unemployment rate. The pair has met stiff selling pressure at March 2017’s high (115.50). The drop below 114.80 then 114.00 has forced short-term positions to bail out, exacerbating the sell-off. The US dollar is hovering above the key daily support at 112.70. An oversold RSI has brought in some buying interest. 114.20 is a fresh resistance. On the downside, a breakout could dent the optimism in the medium-term and pave the way for a bearish reversal. NZDUSD breaks major support The New Zealand dollar remains under pressure as risk assets suffer from the omicron variant scare. A break below the daily support at 0.6860 has put the buy-side on the defense. Sentiment has become increasingly downbeat after the pair fell past last August’s low at 0.6805, which is a second line of defense on the daily chart. 0.6700 would be the next support. The RSI’s repeatedly oversold situation has caused a temporary rebound. But buyers will need to clear 0.6890 before they could turn the tables. US 30 sees limited rebound The Dow Jones 30 struggled to bounce as investors grew cautious. A break below the demand zone near 35500 has prompted the bulls to exit and reassess the short-term sentiment. An oversold RSI may cause a limited rebound as traders take profit. 35700 is now a resistance and the bears may see a rally as an opportunity to sell into strength. The demand zone between 34150 and 34400 from mid-October is a major floor to keep the uptrend intact. A deeper correction may send the index towards 33000.
Bitcoin, overcoming adversity

Bitcoin, overcoming adversity

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 30.11.2021 10:47
Nevertheless, this might be over soon. Regulation might kill the majority of the expanded crypto world. Bitcoin might be banned, as it has been in the past in various countries. And yet, once fiat currency value implodes, bitcoin will be the last man standing. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, last weeks call on the nose: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 23rd, 2021. We posted the above weekly chart of bitcoin in last week’s chart book release. We anticipated a low-risk entry. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, as planned: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Weekly chart as of November 29th, 2021. Since then, prices have swiftly penetrated our entry zone. We caught two trades, a daily and a weekly time frame position. We posted these trades (entries and the partial exits), as usual, in real-time in our free Telegram channel.Furthermore, we employ a quad exit strategy that ensures instant risk elimination by quickly taking half of the position off. With entries of US$ 53,877 (daily timeframe trade) and US$ 54,000 (weekly timeframe trade), we were able, with first exits at US$ 54,591 and US$ 55,797, to not only eliminate risk but ensure profits on half of the positions of 1.33% and 3.33%. As well our next following targets have been reached! We took another 25% of position size out at US$ 55,811.6 and US$ 57,317.7, which booked us another 3.59% return on the daily position and 6.14% on the weekly position. The remaining 25% of position sizes on each trade we call runners. With stops set now at break-even entry levels, we can only produce additional winnings for each trade. Each trade had tight stops, assuring less than half a percent of risk per trade.   BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, modest odds for follow through: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 30th, 2021. The possible contrarian short signal on the monthly chart makes the weekly trades success probabilities for the runner smaller. Nevertheless, this quad exit approach allows for low-risk positioning versus endless mind chatter and debate since it is typical that different time frames show different long, short and sideways plays. Here, bitcoin again overcomes adversity. Typically, tight ranged instruments erase many trade opportunities for profit margins relating to commissions and risk to small. The earlier mentioned profit percent numbers are typical for bitcoins volatility and, as such, allow for risk reduction and short- to midterm profitability being more extensive than the average S&P500 annual return. Bitcoin, overcoming adversity: Bitcoin will be the cure to inflation damage for those you invested in it in a timely manner. Inflation is a creeping disease to money. Humans seem to have in history always procrastinated towards dangers of inflation, mostly since inflation treads slowly. Inflation also holds illusions supporting hope, hope that also fuels procrastination. While most who suffer under inflationary times think prices for goods went up, the reality is that monetary value went down. With this illusion, we hold on to stock portfolios seemingly rising, bonds, 401ks, and Roth IRAs trusting governments for the status quo to be protected or at least trouble to be temporary. Much more likely, most citizens are drained of their savings and cheated out of their retirements. At the end of such a monetary devaluation cycle, it will be the last time bitcoin will defend its place.  Doubt will finally vanish. Unfortunately, too late for those who did not educate themselves early enough to find a haven in this principled way to protect one’s wealth. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|November 29th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Stocks Will Rebound After Friday’s Rout, but Is the Correction Over?

Stocks Will Rebound After Friday’s Rout, but Is the Correction Over?

Paul Rejczak Paul Rejczak 29.11.2021 15:50
  The S&P 500 sold off on Friday after news about the new Covid variant. Today we will likely see a rebound but the short-term picture remains bearish. For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch   The S&P 500 index lost 2.27% on Friday, Nov. 26, as investors reacted to the news about new Covid variant detected in South Africa. The market broke below its recent local lows and it got away from the 4,700 level. The Friday’s trading action looked like a meaningful downward reversal. The nearest important support level is now at 4,550-4,580. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,650, marked by the recent local lows. The S&P 500 retraced most of its early November advance, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq 100 Fell Closer to 16,000 Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index remained relatively stronger than the broad stock market on Friday, as it didn’t break below the early November local low. However, it got close to the 16,000 level and it retraced almost 800 points from its last Monday’s new record high of 16,764.85. The index closed above the 16,000 mark on Friday, as we can see on the daily chart: Apple Is At the Previous High Let’s take a look at biggest stock in the S&P 500 index: AAPL. Apple accelerated its uptrend a week ago on Monday and it reached the new record high of $165.70. However, it retraced almost all of its intraday advance that day. On Friday it got back to a potential support level of around $157. For now, it looks like a downward correction. Conclusion The S&P 500 index is expected to open 1.0% higher this morning, as global markets are shrugging off the new Covid fears. We will likely see an intraday consolidation following higher opening. The broad stock market index may enter a flat correction within a short-term downtrend. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 traded within a short-term topping pattern last week and on Friday it suffered an over 2% sell-off. A speculative short position is still justified from the risk/reward perspective. We are expecting a 5% correction. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Oil attempts to recover after massive end of week sell-off

Oil attempts to recover after massive end of week sell-off

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 29.11.2021 13:25
Oil prices experienced a significant shock towards the end of last week with WTI dropping almost 14% after news emerged of the new Omicron covid variant which threatened to impact several major aspects of the economy in the near future. While details surrounding the situation remain unclear, fears related to potential lockdowns or restrictions have impacted many assets with a particular focus on oil as the commodity has experienced significant volatility in recent months. Part of the problem is also the unclear situation related to supply, as OPEC decided to delay it’s technical meeting from Monday and Tuesday to Wednesday and Thursday as the group awaits further details from the WHO on the severity of the variant. In the meantime, we can see a significant rebound in oil prices today with WTI hovering around $71.60 and Brent trading at $75 while investors pay close attention to any news regarding the developing circumstances and as governments deliberate on potential measures to contain the spread. UK consumer credit data disappoints Today’s slightly below expectations mortgage lending continues to show the reluctance of UK consumers as they contend with increasingly high property prices, rising inflation and uncertainty regarding the covid-19 situation. Furthermore,a cause of concern could be that net lending to individuals was significantly below expectations, coming in at £2.3B compared to the expected £9.7B, this could lead to a slower than expected economic rebound as we head into the holiday season which could be exacerbated by other factors such as potential lockdowns or restrictions.
Intraday Market Analysis – Yen’s Rally Gains Traction

Intraday Market Analysis – Yen’s Rally Gains Traction

John Benjamin John Benjamin 29.11.2021 10:01
EURJPY breaks double bottom The safe-haven Japanese yen soars on news of a vaccine-resistant covid variant. A bearish MA cross on the daily chart indicates weakness in the euro’s previous rebound. The pair has closed below last September’s low at 127.90, a major floor to keep price action afloat in the medium term. This is a bearish signal that the sell-off is yet to end with 127.00 as the next support. The RSI’s double bottom in the oversold area may attract some buying interest. However, the bulls will need to lift 129.50 before a reversal could take shape. GBPUSD struggles to bounce back The pound continues on its way down against the US dollar over divergent monetary policy. The pair is hovering near a 12-month low around 1.3280. Sentiment remains bearish after a failed rebound above 1.3420. A bullish RSI divergence suggests a deceleration in the downward momentum. 1.3390 is the first hurdle ahead. Its breach would prompt the short side to cover and open the door to the daily resistance at 1.3510. Otherwise, a bearish breakout would send the price to 1.3200. GER 40 to test major floor The Dax 40 plunged as investors fret that new lockdowns could wreck the recovery. The gap below 15760 has forced leveraged buyers to bail out, stirring up volatility in the process. The momentum is typical of a catalyst-driven sell-off. Below 15150 the index is testing the psychological level of 15000. The RSI’s oversold situation has attracted a ‘buying-the-dips’ crowd in the demand zone. Further down, 14820 is a key floor to maintain the uptrend. 15530 has become the closest resistance in case of a rebound.
Stocks - More Volatility Following Hawkish Powell

Stocks - More Volatility Following Hawkish Powell

Paul Rejczak Paul Rejczak 01.12.2021 15:12
  Stock prices were volatile on Tuesday, as the S&P 500 fell to the new local low. But today it may rebound again. but will the downtrend continue? For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch   The S&P 500 index lost 1.90% on Tuesday, Nov. 30. The market went lower following testimonies from the Fed Chair Powell and the Treasury Secretary Yellen. On Monday the broad stock market retraced more than a half of its Friday’s sell-off, but yesterday it fell to the new local low of 4,560.00. Today it is expected to open 1.0% higher again, so we will see more short-term volatility. The nearest important support level is at 4,560-4,600. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,650, marked by the recent local lows. The S&P 500 retraced most of its early November advance, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq 100 Remains Relatively Stronger Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index remained relatively stronger than the broad stock market yesterday, as it didn’t extend a short-term downtrend. It remained above its Friday’s local low and above the 16,000 mark, as we can see on the daily chart: Apple Got Close to the Record High Again Let’s take a look at biggest stock in the S&P 500 index: AAPL. Apple accelerated its uptrend a week ago and it reached the new record high of $165.70. However, it retraced almost all of its intraday advance that day. On Friday it got back to a support level of around $157. And yesterday it got back to the all-time high, as it closed slightly above the $165 price level. Conclusion The S&P 500 index is expected to open 1.0% higher this morning following an overnight rebound from the yesterday’s new short-term low. We will likely see an intraday consolidation following a higher opening. And for now, it looks like a consolidation within a short-term downtrend. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 extended its short-term downtrend yesterday, but today it is expected to open higher again. A speculative short position is still justified from the risk/reward perspective. We are expecting a 5% correction. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Don’t Get Yourself Into a Bull Trap With Gold

Don’t Get Yourself Into a Bull Trap With Gold

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 01.12.2021 15:40
You see a commodity going down, then it reverses and starts teasing you with an upward move… only to end up declining further. Is this the case now?I started yesterday’s analysis with a question that I then replied to, explaining why I thought that it wasn’t necessarily a good idea take profits from one’s short positions at this time, as the corrective upswings could be nothing to write home about, and that it might not be that easy to get back in the short positions at better (higher) prices.Well, yesterday’s session showed exactly what I meant, and the 4-hour chart found below provides the details.The upper part of the chart features the GDX ETF (proxy for gold mining stocks), and the lower part thereof features the GLD ETF (proxy for gold price itself.)First of all, gold stocks were first to break below their rising support line – that happened a couple of days ago. Gold moved decisively below its rising support line only yesterday. This emphasizes that gold stocks are leading gold lower. This, in turn, is a bearish confirmation in itself, as that’s what tends to happen at the beginning of a bigger move lower.The way both markets performed yesterday was also quite interesting.In case of mining stocks, the intraday rally took GDX just slightly above its rising support line and then miners moved back down in a flash. In other words, if anyone had exited their short positions in order to re-enter them at higher prices, they had very little time to do so, and the most realistic version of this scenario is that they ended the session while missing the 1% decline in the GDX. The silver price was down by just 4 cents, but still, it was a move lower despite an intraday rally.In the case of GLD, one might have thought that gold was bound to rally since it stopped at its rising support line (based on the Sep. and Nov. lows). And gold even rallied by about $20 intraday… Only to decline more and end yesterday’s session lower.That was not a reversal. That was a bull trap.And the most bearish thing about yesterday’s decline – and weakness? It happened while the USD Index moved lower during the day. The USDX ended the day 0.33 lower, which “should have” triggered gold’s rally. Instead, gold declined, proving that it really wants to move lower. And suggesting that profits from one’s short positions in mining stocks are likely to become bigger.Don’t get me wrong – I do think that we’ll see a counter-trend upswing, but it’s just not that likely that we’ll see it right now. For quite some time, I’ve been repeating that it’s likely that we’ll see some kind of corrective upswing once gold moves back to its yearly lows, and this remains to be the case.Then, after the rebound, gold is likely to decline once again, perhaps to its final lows (for many years to come).Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
It‘s the Fed, Not Omicron

It‘s the Fed, Not Omicron

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 01.12.2021 15:51
S&P 500 plunged on accelerated tapering intentions, and much of the risk-on sectors and commodities followed – even precious metals declined a little in sympathy. But where is the larger reasoning? If the Fed truly intends to taper faster in its belated fight against inflation, it‘s a question of not only markets throwing a tantrum, but of the real economy keeling over. Inflation is a serious problem, including a political one, and here come the Omicron demand-choking effects if the fear card gets played too hard. Thankfully, reports indicate that the alleged variant is merely more contagious and having comparatively milder effects. That‘s how it is usually turns out with mutations by the way – remember that before the number 30 frequently thrown around, shuts off thinking including in the markets. The world‘s economic activity didn‘t come to a standstill with Delta, and it appears such a policy route won‘t be taken with Omicron either. That‘s why I was telling you on Monday that any inflation reprieve the scary news buys, would likely turn out only temporary. Unless the Fed decides to make it permanent, which is what I am doubting based on its track record and the more rocky landscape ahead that I talked in mid Nov extensive article. For now, the Fed‘s pressure is real, and premarket rallies that are sold into during regular sessions, must be viewed with suspicion. It‘s not that we‘ve flipped into a (secular) bear market, but the correction is palpable and real – I‘m not looking for the habitual Santa Claus rally this year. Big picture, the precious metals resilience is a good sign, and return of cyclicals with commodities is the all-clear signal that I‘m however not expecting this or next week. Cryptos resilience is encouraging as much as various stock market ratios (XLY:XLP offers a more bullish view than XLF:XLU – I‘ve been covering these helpful metrics quite often through 2020), which makes me think we‘re in mostly sideways markets for now. At least as I told you on Monday, the (rational / irrational) fears started getting ignored by the markets, meaning we‘re on a gradually improving track. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 isn‘t out of the hot water, and it‘s still just a close in the 4670s that would mark the end of peril to me. The financial sector has to turn, strength has to come to smallcaps simultaneously – the 500-strong index is still performing in a too risk-off way. Credit Markets Positive HYG divergence isn‘t enough – the broad underperformance of S&P 500 must be reversed to establish stronger stock market foundations. Powell just added to the risk-off posture in bonds, and I‘m looking keenly at the expected, ensuing (in)ability to absorb less loose monetary conditions. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals are acting weak, but not overly weak. When the markets get fed up with having to bear the tapering / tightening (real and verbal) interventions, it would be gold and silver that rise first. Crude Oil Crude oil turned out indeed weakest of the weak when fear overruled everything. Capitulation is a process, and it‘s quite underway already in my view. The way black gold crashed, the way it would rise once the sky meaningfully clears. Copper Copper weakness is what I don‘t trust here as other base metals did quite better. But again, yesterday was an overreaction to the Fed news that it would discuss speeding up taper. Just discuss. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum holding relatively high ground, is a reason to think the risk-on scales would tip positive. While BTC is still correcting, I‘m looking for it to join Ethereum. Summary S&P 500, risk-on and commodities aren‘t yet on solid footing as Powell pronouncements outweighed the dissipating corona uncertainty. Either way, the effects on inflation would be rather temporary – inflation indicators clearly haven‘t topped yet as the implicit Fed admission of dropping the word temporary confirms. Once the tightening mirage gets a reality check in the economy and markets, look for precious metals to truly shine. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Copper upside remains despite months of inaction

Copper upside remains despite months of inaction

Ole Hansen Ole Hansen 01.12.2021 16:26
Commodities 2021-12-01 15:00 Summary:  Industrial metals spent most of November trading sideways with concerns about demand being offset by tight market conditions, especially in aluminum and copper. In fact, the price has during these past few months, when worries about Chinese demand took centerstage, been trading relatively close to the average price seen since April. A behavior which in our view highlights a strong underlying demand for copper, not least considering the prospect for inelastic supply struggling to meet green transformation demand towards electrification. Industrial metals spent most of November trading sideways with concerns about demand being offset by tight market conditions, especially in aluminum and copper. Apart from two failed upside attempts in May and October, copper has since April stayed mostly rangebound not swaying too far away from its average price, at $9550 per tons in London and $4.35 per pound in New York. During the past few months copper has performed relatively well considering heightened worries about the economic outlook for China, and more specifically its property sector which has seen near defaults as well as a slump in home sales. Additional headwinds have been created by the stronger dollar and central banks beginning to focus more on inflation than stimulus. In order to counter Chinese economic growth concerns, Vice Premier Liu He has been out saying growth this year should exceed targets, and the government plans more support for business. High Grade Copper has been averaging $4.35 since April with the current action confined to a range between $4.2 and $4.5 while major support can be found in the $4 area. The lack of momentum in recent months has driven a sharp reduction in the speculative long held by hedge funds, a development that could trigger a significant amount of activity once the technical and/or fundamental picture becomes clearer. Against these mostly demand focused macroeconomic headwinds, we have at the same time been witnessing an unusual synchronised tightness in stock levels monitored by the major futures exchanges in London and Shanghai. Unusual in the sense that price arbitrage between the two exchanges often drive changes in stock levels from one exchange to the other. Recently however we have been witnessing levels fall at both exchanges, with aluminum and copper stockpiles at the LME falling to their lowest levels since 2007 and 2005 respectively. In fact, the six industrial metals traded on the LME are currently all trading in backwardation for the first time since 2007. A condition where spot prices trade higher than futures, and driven by the mentioned drop in inventories in response to a post-pandemic surge in demand as well as supply-chain disruptions. On the subject of supply, especially during the coming years when the green transformation will account for an increased proportion of global copper demand, planned mining taxes in Chile, the worlds biggest producers have raised the alarm bells. Politicians are looking for a bigger share of mining profits to help resolve inequalities exacerbated by the pandemic, and with a potential approval moving closer BHP Group has warned it could derail investments thereby making it harder to meet future demand, especially considering the mentioned need for copper towards electrification. Source: Bloomberg An example of increased copper demand driven by the green transformation are the number of finished and planned subsea interconnectors which are paramount for cutting emissions and boosting the effectiveness of renewable energy production. Increased volatility in the production of power from renewable sources such as wind and solar as opposed to traditional sources like coal and gas will continue to increase the need for large scale transmission capabilities of power between countries and regions. The cable below has been used in the now finished 720 kilometer North Sea Link between Norway and the UK, as well in the under-construction Viking link between Denmark and the UK. It carries as much as 1.45 Gigawatt (about the capacity of a nuclear reactor) with most of the 50 kg/meter weight coming from copper. Several other subsea links are planned over the coming years, and together with the need for increased capacity on the electrical grid to support the roll out of EV’s, demand for copper, the king of green metals, look set to increase over the coming years. Electrification and urbanisation will drive growth in copper wrote my colleague Peter Garnry in this update from November 19. In it he also offered a table of mining companies providing exposure to copper. The table below shows 16 mining companies with exposure to copper with Codelco, the largest copper producer in the world, absent from the list as the Chilean miner is only listed in Chile and thus not investable for our clients. The copper mining industry has delivered a median total return in USD of 132.6% over the past five years beating the global equity up 105% in the same period. The rising copper prices the past year driven by investors positioning themselves in green metals (defined as metals that will play a key role in the green transformation) which in turn has pushed up revenue in the industry by almost 40%. Sell-side analysts are generally bullish on copper miners with a median upside of 16% from current levels. In our view investors should select one or two copper miners to get exposure and avoid the ETFs on the industry as they are too broad-based and lack the pure exposure profile needed to play the copper market. As the table also show, there is no such thing as pure exposure to copper except for futures, options and CFDs on the underlying copper. The miner with the highest revenue exposure to copper is Antofagasta with 84.8% revenue share from copper extraction and refining. Most copper miners also extract gold and silver as part of their copper operations, and out of the 16 copper miners in our list, only 6 of these miners have more than 50% of revenue coming from copper extraction and refining.
FX Update: Powell is now an inflation fighter, not a punchbowl spiker

FX Update: Powell is now an inflation fighter, not a punchbowl spiker

John Hardy John Hardy 01.12.2021 16:30
Forex 2021-12-01 15:25 4 minutes to read Summary:  Fed Chair Powell cemented recent evidence that the Fed has changed its stripes from a punch bowl refiller for the economy and the labor market to an inflation fighter at large. The market is finding it tough to absorb this message, given the recent market choppiness and virus distractions, but interesting that the US dollar has not found more strength on this momentous pivot. FX Trading focus: Hawkish broadside from Powell Fed Chair Powell cemented the impression that the Fed has shifted firmly into inflation fighting mode with an appearance yesterday before a Fed panel. The rhetoric was direct and of a make-no-mistake variety. Powell said that the end of balance sheet expansion would likely wind down a few  months sooner than originally foreseen, even with the current omicron variant of covid concerns. He also spelled out that it is probably time to retire the word “transitory” when discussing inflation, ad said that the risk of higher inflation has increased. Perhaps most interesting was a comment that persistent higher inflation brought a risk to getting the labor market back to where it was pre-covid. It is crystal clear at this point that the Fed has pivoted to inflation-fighting and tightening and will move in that direction as quickly as it can until the inflation numbers improve markedly. Of course, the market was already adjusting to clear signs that the Fed is moving into a far more hawkish stance early last week, only to be sidelined viciously by the omicron variant worries in recent days. Were it not for that interlude, Fed expectations would likely be at new cycle highs as yesterday’s signals from Powell make the Fed shift as clear as day. As it is, we have only clawed back a majority of the 2022 hikes priced in pricing of Fed rate hikes, still some 8 basis points to go for end of year Fed pricing (the “omicron discount” being perhaps 15 basis points or more?). The two curious things are that the US yield curve continues to viciously flatten and the market continues to price the terminal Fed rate for the coming hiking cycle at 2.00%. The inability for the longer yields to lift higher recently may be reining in the USD upside for. The other indicator besides yield-curve shifts that is making waves here on my radar screen of financial conditions is the measure of corporate credit, where spreads have blown wider, as discussed over the last couple of episodes of the Saxo Market Call podcast. The bluntness from the Fed yesterday may have driven the particularly bad day for junk bonds as the new style from the Fed could lead investors in the riskiest debt to conclude that they may be allowed to twist in the breeze down the road if inflation levels stay high, rather than receiving endless bailouts that keep zombie companies in business and able to forever roll forward their debts. We are set up for an interesting 2022 that will likely look very different from 2021. The shift in Fed rhetoric will make the market extra-sensitive to US data and developments that impact inflation, from energy prices, to the CPI/PCE data itself and the average hourly earnings data perhaps even more than the usual nonfarm payrolls change focus. Today’s Beige Book could be interesting for anecdotal evidence from interviews with companies on their impression of supply constraints, wage adjustments and issues finding qualified workers, etc. Today’s November ADP Payrolls was another strong 500k+ as expected. Chart: USDJPYUSDJPY was handcuffed by developments yesterday – on the one hand with the USD supported by a rise in Fed expectations, but on the other hand, JPY traders finding no fresh reason to bid up the JPY as the long end of the US yield curve remains pinned at quite low yields and there has been no shift in the Fed’s “terminal rate” – where the market sees the Fed rate hike cycle peeking out. So the price action bobbed well back above the 112.73 range pivot level that was broken yesterday, but has a steep wall to climb to threaten the 115.00+ cycle highs again, something that would likely require the entire Fed yield curve to lift, and more aggressively than expectations for policy normalization elsewhere. Source: Saxo Group Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strengthAgain, the market is finding the reaction function increasingly difficult to the recent jolts in inputs. Note the huge momentum shift in SEK, where the market overdid the recent squeeze, but the strength there will likely only improve once the euro bottoms and the outlook for EU yields and fiscal improves. Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.Well entrenched trends are few and far between, but the EURCNH and EURCHF downtrends stand out, with the latter’s lack of volatility after recent direction changes remarkable. The Swiss franc does well as a safe haven and does well because the SNB can’t be seen weakening the currency when inflation pressures are rising. Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1500 – US Fed Chair Powell, Treasury Secretary Yellen to testify before House panel 1500 – US Nov. ISM Manufacturing 1530 – DOE’s Weekly Crude Oil and Fuel Inventories 1900 - Fed Beige Book 0030 – Australia Oct. Trade Balance
Saxo Bank 2022 Outrageous Predictions: Here comes a revolution!

Saxo Bank 2022 Outrageous Predictions: Here comes a revolution!

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 02.12.2021 14:35
Saxo Bank has today released its 10 Outrageous Predictions for 2022. The predictions focus on a series of unlikely but underappreciated events which, if they were to occur, could send shockwaves across financial markets: The plan to end fossil fuels gets a rain check Facebook faceplants on youth exodus The US mid-term election brings constitutional crisis US inflation reaches above 15% on wage-price spiral EU Superfund for climate, energy and defence announced, to be funded by private pensions Women’s Reddit Army takes on the corporate patriarchy India joins the Gulf Cooperation Council as a non-voting member Spotify disrupted due to NFT-based digital rights platform New hypersonic tech drives space race and new cold war Medical breakthrough extends average life expectancy 25 years While these predictions do not constitute Saxo’s official market forecasts for 2022, they represent a warning against the potential misallocation of risk among investors who might typically assign just a one percent chance of these events materialising.  It’s an exercise in considering the full extent of what is possible, even if not necessarily probable, and particularly relevant in the context of this year’s unexpected Covid-19 crisis. Inevitably the outcomes that prove the most disruptive (and therefore outrageous) are those that are a surprise to consensus. Commenting on this year’s Outrageous Predictions, Chief Investment Officer at Saxo Bank, Steen Jakobsen said:   “The theme for 2022 Outrageous Predictions is Revolution. There is so much energy building up in our inequality-plagued society and economy. Add to that the inability of the current system to address the issue and we need to look into the future with a fundamental view that it’s not a question of whether we get a revolution but a more a question of when and how. With every revolution, some win and some lose, but that’s not the point—if the current system can’t change but must, a revolution is the only path forward. A culture war is raging across the globe and the divide is no longer simply between the rich and the poor. It’s also the young versus the old, the educated class versus the less educated working class, real markets with price discovery versus government intervention, stock market buy-backs versus R&D spending, inflation versus deflation, women versus men, the progressive left versus the centrist left, virtual signalling on social media versus real changes to society, the rentier class versus labour, fossil fuels versus green energy, ESG initiatives versus the need to supply the world with reliable energy—the list go on. We collaborated globally on Covid vaccines in 2020 and 2021. Now we need a new Manhattan Project–-type endeavour to set the marginal cost of energy, adjusted for productivity, on the path to much lower levels while eliminating the impact of our energy generation on the environment. Such a move would unleash the most significant productivity cycle in history: we could desalinate water, make vertical farms feasible almost anywhere, increase computer powers to quantum states, and continue to explore new boundaries in biology and physics.” Remember that the world is forever evolving if at varying speeds, while business and political cycles are always finite.” The Outrageous Predictions 2022 publication is available here with headline summaries below: 1. The plan to end fossil fuels gets a rain check Summary: Policymakers kick climate targets down the road and support fossil fuel investment to fight inflation and the risk of social unrest while rethinking the path to a low-carbon future. Realising the inflationary threat from surging commodities prices and the risk of an economic train wreck due to the unrealistic timeline for the green energy transition, policymakers kick climate targets down the road. They relax investment red tape for five years for oil production and ten years for natural gas production, to encourage producers to ensure adequate and reasonably priced supplies that bridge the gap from the energy present to the low-carbon energy future. This development has already jacked up prices and price volatility, not only for energy, but also for industrial metals, most of which are needed in greater quantities for the green transformation push. On top of this, surging energy prices have spiked prices for diesel and especially fertiliser, important farming costs that raise concerns about the production of key food crops. Market impact: The iShares Stoxx EU 600 Oil & Gas ETF (Ticker: EXH1:xetr) surges 50 percent as the whole energy sector gets a new lease on life 2. Facebook faceplants on youth exodus Summary: The young abandon Facebook’s platforms in protest at the mining of personal information for profit; the attempt by Facebook parent Meta to reel them back in with the Metaverse stumbles. Facebook has gone from being a vibrant hub of young people, to a platform for older “boomers” as young people would say. Young people are increasingly turned off by Facebook’s algorithms turning their social media experiences into that of homogenous feedback loops of identical content, or even worse, hateful and disinforming content. Facebook’s own research suggests that teens spend 2 to 3 times longer on TikTok than on Instagram (which is Facebook’s youngest social media asset), and that Snapchat is the preferred way to communicate with friends. A new company name (Facebook is now called Meta) and brand identity to separate and shield Instagram (its most valuable current asset), together with creating a new product tailored towards young people, is the exact same playbook tobacco companies have used for years. But in 2022, investors will realise that Meta is rapidly losing the young generation and thus the future potential and profitability of the company. In a desperate move, Meta tries to acquire Snapchat or TikTok while throwing billions of dollars into building the creepy Metaverse, which is aimed at surveilling users more directly than ever before and getting young people back into Meta’s universe of social media platforms, in the perceived wisdom that being a first mover is always best in technology. The plan struggles to take off as the young generation fails to sign up. Market impact: Facebook parent company Meta struggles, down 30 percent versus the broader market and is urged to spin off its components as separate entities, shattering Zuckerberg’s monopolistic dreams. 3. The US mid-term election brings constitutional crisis Summary: The US mid-term election sees a stand-off over the certification of close Senate and/or House election results, leading to a scenario where the 118th Congress is unable to sit on schedule in early 2023. The chaotic 2020 US Presidential Election was a scary moment for many US institutions. The sitting president Donald J. Trump initially refused to conceded defeat in the election and complained that the election was stolen, a claim that was never seriously challenged in a court of law but one which had widespread sympathy among the Trump base. A crowd of hard-core believers in the stolen election conspiracy was encouraged by the President’s rhetoric to a sufficient degree to storm Capitol Hill and “stop the steal”, i.e., to prevent the election result from being made official on January 6, 2021, in a scene unprecedented in US history. Prior to this, and then again later in the hotly contested Senate run-off elections in Georgia, dedicated election officials—many of them Republican—were doing their duty to tally the real results while risking their life amidst threats—even death threats—from extremists. In 2022, the Republicans ensure that no such traditional duty-bound officials are in the “wrong” place, with all election-related positions filled by toe-the-line partisans ready to do anything to tilt the results to suppressing voter turnout. In the wake of the 2022 election, a handful of key Senate and House races come down to the wire and one or both sides move against certifying the vote, making it impossible for the new Congress to form and sit on its scheduled first day of January 3, 2023. Joe Biden rules by decree and US democracy is suspended as even Democrats also dig in against the Supreme Court that was tilted heavily by Trump. A full-blown constitutional crisis stretches over the horizon over the stand-off as 2023 gets under way. Market impact: extreme volatility in US assets, as US treasury yields rise and the USD drops on hedging against the existential crisis in the world’s largest economy and issuer of the world’s reserve currency of choice. 4. US inflation reaches above 15% on wage-price spiral Summary: By the fourth quarter of 2022, the wages for the lower half of US incomes are rising at an annualised 15% clip as companies scramble to find willing and qualified workers who are increasingly selective due to a rising sense of entitlement as jobs are plentiful relative to the meagre availability of workers at all skill levels. The official US CPI reached a peak at 11.8% in February 1975. It wasn’t until the recession of 1980-82 and brutal policy rate increases to levels as high as 20% that inflation was finally killed. In 2022, the Federal Reserve and Fed chair Jerome Powell repeats the same mistake all over again as the post-Covid outbreak economy and especially the labour market are severely supply constrained, making a mockery of the Fed’s traditional models. Powell believes millions of Americans will return to work and fill some of the 10.4 million open job positions as Covid-19 fades. But this is plain wrong. Some have retired early due to the crisis and thus have permanently left the US workforce. The big difference between today and yesterday is that the pandemic has fuelled a great awakening of workers. Across sectors and income classes they realise they are now more empowered than ever. They demand a better experience: better job conditions, higher wages, more flexibility and a sense of purpose from work. Coupled with persistent inflationary pressures coming from the production side, the energy crisis and labour shortage, this results in unprecedented broad-based double-digit annualised wage increases by Q4. As a consequence, US inflation reaches an annualised pace above 15% before the start of 2023, for the first time since WWII. This prompts the Federal Reserve into a too-little, too-late move to tighten monetary policy faster in a desperate effort to tame inflation. But the central bank has lost credibility; it will take time to regain it. Market impact: extreme volatility in US equity and credit markets. The JNK high-yield ETF falls as much as 20% and the VIXM mid-curve volatility ETF soars as much as 70%. 5. EU Superfund for climate, energy and defence announced, to be funded by private pensions Summary: To defend against the rise of populism, deepen the commitment to slowing climate change, and defend its borders as the US security umbrella recedes, the EU launches a bold $3 trillion Superfund to be funded by pension allocations rather than new taxes. The security umbrella provided by the US during the Cold War and afterwards over much of Eastern Europe is rapidly fading and threatens to fail entirely in the years ahead as the US looks east at far more serious economic and military rivals. French President Macron, backed by a Draghi moving to stave off Italy’s own rise of the populists, rolls out a vision for an “EU Superfund” that will address the three-fold priorities of defence, climate and the related clean energy transition. Given the EU’s aging population and heavy tax burdens, policymakers know that it will be impossible to finance the Superfund with higher taxes on incomes or other traditional tax revenues. Instead, France has a light-bulb moment as it seeks to overhaul its pension system and looks at Europe’s enormous pensions. It decides that all pensions for all workers above the age of 40 must allocate a progressively larger portion of their pension assets into Superfund bonds as they age. This allows new levels of fiscal stimulus in the EU even with the sleight-of-hand trick of hiding the spending in inflation and negative real returns on low-yielding Superfund bonds that are actually EU bonds in disguise. At the same the younger generation enjoys a stronger job market and less unfair tax burdens as the system proves such a success that income taxes are lowered progressively. Market impact: Bond yields harmonise across Europe, leading to German Bunds underperforming. EU defence, construction and new energy companies are some of the best performers. 6. Women’s Reddit Army takes on the corporate patriarchy Summary: Mimicking the meme stock Reddit Army tactics of 2020-21, a group of women traders launch a coordinated assault on companies with weak records on gender equality, leading to huge swings in equity prices for targeted companies. Women are not willing to wait any longer. Tired of the lack of progress, 2022 sees a massive grass-roots effort based on social media platforms to force companies that break civil rights laws to address unfair and sexist, racist, ageist and ableist practices. Although women have been struggling with lower salaries, they have higher saving rates than men. Those savings will now come in handy as they decide to take the situation into their own hands and throw their considerable influence around in a #metoo movement in financial markets. In contrast to the often-nihilistic original Reddit Army, the Women’s Reddit Army will be more sophisticated, with women traders coordinating a long squeeze by shorting stocks of selected patriarch companies. At the same time, they will direct funds to companies with the best metrics on female representation in middle management and among executives. Instead of condemning the development, politicians worldwide welcome and support their cause, putting even more pressure on companies with outdated patriarchal attitudes, poor gender equality in pay, and under-representation of women on boards and in management to address the errors of their ways. Market impact: The movement gets real results as the broader market catches on to the theme and joins in, forcing targeted company prices sharply lower, which sees companies scrambling to change their ways. It marks the beginning of a gender parity renaissance in markets. 7. India joins the Gulf Cooperation Council as a non-voting member Summary: The world’s geopolitical alliances will lurch into a phase of drastic realignment as we have an ugly cocktail of new deglobalising geopolitics and much higher energy prices. Countries reliant on imports for the majority of their energy inputs in a rapidly deglobalising world will need to move fast to strategically reorientate strategic alliances and secure long-term energy supplies. One such alliance could involve India, with its mighty technology sector, joining the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) as non-voting member, or in some sort of free trade zone. This alliance would see a reduction in India’s energy insecurity as it secures long-term import commitments. Interregional trading zones will secure “closer to home” production and investment, combined with the security of reliable supplies from India’s point of view, and a reliable destination market from the GCC’s point of view. The alliance helps lay the groundwork for the GCC countries to plan for their future beyond oil and gas and for India to accelerate its development via huge new investments in infrastructure and improvements in agricultural productivity together with fossil fuel imports, bridging the way to a post-carbon longer-term future. Market impact: The Indian rupee proves far more resilient than its EM peers in a volatile year for markets. The bubbly Indian stock market corrects with other equity markets in early 2022 but proves a strong relative performer from the intra-year lows. 8. Spotify disrupted due to NFT-based digital rights platform Summary: Musicians are ready for change as the current music streaming paradigm means that labels and streaming platforms capture 75-95 percent of revenue paid for listening to streamed music. In 2022, new blockchain-based technology will help them grab back their fair share of industry revenues. While the early days of NFTs have looked chaotic and dangerous for asset buyers, the outlook is bright for NFT technology. Not only does an NFT-based platform offer a new way to verify the ownership of rights, but also a way to distribute rights without intermediaries, i.e., a completely decentralised system obviating the need for a centralised platform. The use case for NFTs could prove particularly compelling in the next step for the technology for content generators in the music industry as musicians feel unfairly treated by the revenue sharing models of the current streaming platforms like Spotify and Apple Music. These models don’t guide individual subscribers’ fees to the actual music an individual subscriber listens to. Rather, all subscription fee revenues are aggregated and distributed based on every artist’s share of total streams. In addition, the platforms take a substantial cut, which together with the cut paid to labels is some 75 percent or more of the total revenue. In 2022, an NFT-based service takes hold and begins offering music from notable stars – perhaps the likes of Katy Perry, The Chainsmokers and Jason Derulo, all of whom have recently backed an effort to create a new blockchain-powered streaming platform. Other well-known artists begin pulling their music from the now “traditional” streaming platforms, which suddenly find themselves terminally disrupted. Investors see the eventual writing on the wall for podcasts, movies and other forms of digitisable contents as well. Market impact: Investors recognise that Spotify’s future is bleak, sending its shares down 33 percent in 2022. 9. New hypersonic tech drives space race and new cold war Summary: The latest hypersonic missile tests are driving a widening sense of insecurity as this tech renders legacy conventional and even nuclear military hardware obsolete. In 2022 a massive hypersonic arms race develops among major militaries as no country wants to feel left behind. In 2022, it is clear from funding priorities that hypersonics and space are the heart of a new phase of the deepening rivalry between the US and China on all fronts—economic and military. Other major powers with advanced military tech join in as well, likely including Russia, India, Israel and the EU. Hypersonic capabilities represent a game-changing threat to the long-standing military strategic status quo, as the technology brings asymmetric new defensive and offensive capabilities that upset the two massive pillars of military strategy of recent decades. The first is the potential for devastating hypersonic tech defence against the conventional attack capabilities of long-range bombing aircraft, as well as the so-called “deep water” navy of ships that can bring the fight to any corner of the globe without refuelling. The second pillar of the old Cold War era was the principle of mutually assured destruction (MAD) in the event of nuclear war, under which it was pointless to launch a nuclear war as long as there was still time for the opponent to launch an equally destructive ICBM counterattack from land- and submarine-based ballistic missiles. But the speed and agility of hypersonic tech introduces the belief that superior defence could thwart an attack entirely and even allow for new first-strike capabilities. Market impact: massive funding for companies like Raytheon that build hypersonic tech with space delivery capabilities and underperformance of “expensive conventional hardware” companies in the aircraft and ship-building side of the military hardware equation. 10. Medical breakthrough extends average life expectancy 25 years Summary: Young forever, or for at least a lot longer. In 2022, a key breakthrough in biomedicine brings the prospect of extending productive adulthood and the average life expectancy by up to 25 years, prompting projected ethical, environmental and fiscal crises of epic proportions. The year 2022 sees a breakthrough from a multi-factor approach, as a cocktail of treatments is put together that tweaks cell-level processes in order to extend their life and thus the life of the organism composed of those cells. It’s not cheap, but it’s effective and has already been demonstrated on laboratory mice containing human DNA, extending their lives some 30% and more. The prospect of a massive leap in human quality of life and life expectancy are huge wins for mankind but bring an enormous ethical and financial quandary. Imagine that almost everyone can look forward to living to an average age of 115 and more healthily. What would this mean for private and government pensions, or even the ability or desire to retire? And what about the cost to the planet if it is set to support billions more people, not to mention whether or not there is enough food to go around? And then there is the ethical question of whether it is humane to not make the cocktail available to everyone. In short, how would our value systems, political systems and planet cope?
December Monthly

December Monthly

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 02.12.2021 15:00
December 01, 2021  $USD, Macro The pandemic is still with us as the year winds down and has not yet become endemic, like the seasonal flu.  Even before the new Omicron variant was sequenced, Europe was being particularly hard hit, and social restrictions, especially among the unvaccinated, were spurring social strife.  US cases, notably in the Midwest, were rising, and there is fear that it is 4-6 weeks behind Europe in experiencing the surge.  Whatever herd immunity is, it has not been achieved.  Moreover, despite plenty of vaccines in high-income countries, inoculation efforts in many low-income countries won't begin in earnest until next year.   That said, the new variant has injected a new element into the mix, and it is with a heightened degree of uncertainty that we share our December outlook.  Given the unknowns, policymakers can choose the kind of error they are willing to make. They are trying to minimize their maximum regret.  The utmost regret is that the mutation is dangerous and renders the existing vaccines and treatment significantly less effective.  This will leave them vulnerable to accusations of over-reacting if the Omicron turns out to be a contagious but less deadly variation.   Meanwhile, there has been some relief to the supply chain disruptions.  Covid-related factory closures in Asia, the energy shortage, and port congestion are easing. Large US retailers have stocked up for the holiday shopping season, some of which chartered their own ships to ensure delivery. There are also preliminary signs that the semiconductor chip shortage may be past its worst.  Indeed, the recovery of the auto sector and rebuilding of inventories will help extend the economic expansion well into next year, even though fiscal and monetary policy are less supportive for most high-income countries.  The flash November US manufacturing PMI saw supplier delivery delays fall to six-month lows.   We assume that the US macabre debt ceiling ritual will not lead to a default, and even though it distorted some bill auctions, some resolution is highly probable.  The debate over the Build Back Better initiative, approved by the House of Representatives, will likely be scaled back by moderate Democratic Senators and Republicans.  Besides assessing the risks posed by the new variant, the focus in December is back on monetary policy.  Four large central banks stand out.  The Chinese economy has slowed the People's Bank of China quarterly monetary report modified language that signals more monetary support may be forthcoming.  Many observers see another reduction in reserve requirements as a reasonable step.  Unlike in the US and Europe, which saw bank lending dry-up in the housing market crisis (2008-2009), Beijing is pressing state-owned banks to maintain lending, including the property sector.   The Federal Reserve meets on December 15.  There are two key issues.  First, we expect the FOMC to accelerate the pace of tapering to allow it to have the option to raise rates in Q2 22.  The Fed's commitment to the sequence (tapering, hikes, letting balance sheet run-off) and the current pace of tapering deny the central bank the needed flexibility.  The November CPI will be reported on December 10.  The headline will likely rise to around 6.7%, while the core rate may approach 5%.  Second, the new "Summary of Economic Projections" will probably show more Fed officials seeing the need to hike rates in 2022.  In September, only half did.  The rhetoric of the Fed's leadership has changed.  It will not refer to inflation as transitory and is signaling its intention to act.  The European Central Bank and the Bank of England meet the day after the FOMC.  The ECB staff will update its forecasts, and the key here is where it sees inflation at the end of the forecasting period.  In September, it anticipated that CPI would be at 1.5% at the end of 2023.  Some ECB members argued it was too low.   It may be revised higher, but the key for the policy outlook is whether it is above the 2% target.  We doubt that this will be the case.  While the ECB will likely announce that it intends on respecting the current end of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program next March, its QE will persist. The pre-crisis Asset Purchase Program is expected to continue and perhaps even expand in Q2 22.  The "modalities" of the post-emergency bond-buying program, size, duration, and flexibility (self-imposed limits) will be debated between the hawks and doves.  With eurozone inflation approaching 5% and Germany CPI at 6%, the hard-money camp will have a new ally at the German Finance Ministry as the FDP leader Linder takes the post.  On the other hand, the Social Democrats will name a Weidmann's replacement at the head of the Bundesbank, and nearly anyone will be less hawkish.   While we correctly anticipated that the Bank of England would defy market expectations and stand pat in November, the December meeting is trickier.  The decision could ultimately turn on the next employment and CPI reports due 1-2 days before the BOE meeting.  The risk is that inflation will continue to accelerate into early next year and that the labor market is healing after the furlough program ended in September.  On balance, we suspect it will wait until next year to hike rates and finish its bonds purchases next month as planned.   Having been caught wrong-footed in November, many market participants are reluctant to be bitten by the same dog twice. As a result, the swaps market appears to be rising in about a 35% chance of a 15 bp move that would bring the base rate up to 25 bp.  Sterling dropped almost 1.4% (or nearly two cents) on November 4, the most since September 2020 when the BOE failed to deliver the hike that the market thought the BOE had signaled.   The combination of a strong dollar and the Fed tapering weighed emerging market currencies as a whole.  The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index fell by about 4.5% in November, its third consecutive monthly decline, bringing the year-to-date loss to almost 10%.  It fell roughly 5.7% in 2020.  Turkey took the cake, though, with the lira falling nearly 30% on the month.  It had depreciated by 15% in the first ten months of the year.  This follows a 20% depreciation last year.  Ten years ago, a dollar would buy about 1.9 lira.  Now it can buy more than 13 lira.  The euro's weakness was a drag, and the geopolitical developments (e.g., Ukraine, Belarus) weighed on central European currencies. The central bank of Hungary turned more aggressive by hiking the one-week deposit rate by 110 bp (in two steps) after the 30 bp hike in the base rate failed to have much impact.  The forint's 3.1% loss was the most among EU members.   Colombian peso was the weakest currency in Latam, depreciating by almost 5%. It was not rewarded for delivering a larger than expected 50 bp rate hike in late October.  Bannockburn's GDP-weighted global currency index (BWCI) fell by nearly 1% in November, the largest monthly decline since June.  It reflected the decline of the world's largest currencies against the dollar.  Three currencies in the index proved resilient  On the GDP-weighted basis, China has immense gravity, with a 21.8% weighting (the six largest EM economies, including China, account for a 32.5% of the BWCI). It appreciated by about two-thirds of a percent. The Brazilian real managed to rise (~0.25%) too.  Since the day before the Omicron variant was sequenced, the Japanese yen gained a little more than 2%, reversing the earlier decline that had brought it to four-year lows.  It rose by  0.7% in November, making it the strongest currency in the index.  Among the major currencies, the Australian dollar fell the most, declining about 5.2%.  The Canadian dollar was next, with around a 3% loss.   As it turns out, the dollar (Dollar Index) recorded its low for the year as shocking events were unfolding in Washington on January 6.  The bottomed against the yen and euro the same day.   The greenback did not bottom against the Australian dollar until February, but it took it until early June to put in a low against sterling and the Canadian dollar.  The BWCI peaked in early June and, by the end of last month, had retreated by about 2.7%.  We suspect it may decline by another 2%, which would return it the levels of late 2019.  That, in turn, implies the risk of a stronger dollar into the first part of next year.     Dollar:  The jump in US CPI to above 6%, and a strong sense that it is not the peak, spurred speculation that the Federal Reserve would likely accelerate the pace of tapering at the December meeting. Several Fed officials seemed sympathetic, including San Francisco President Daly, who is perceived to be a dove. The minutes of the November meeting underscored the central bank's flexibility over the pace of tapering.  At the same time, most of the high-frequency data for October came in stronger than expected, lending credence to ideas that after a disappointing Q3, the world's largest economy is accelerating again in Q4.  The divergence of monetary policy and the subsequent widening interest rate differentials is the primary driver of expectations for dollar appreciation against the euro and yen.  The market had been leaning toward three rates hikes in 2022 before news of the new Covid mutation emerged and trimmed the odds.  Powell was renominated for a second term at the helm of the Federal Reserve, Brainard was nominated to be Vice-Chairman.  There is still the Vice-Chair for supervision and an empty governor seat for President to Biden to fill.  In addition to the changes in leadership, the rotation of the voting members of the FOMC brings in a somewhat more hawkish bias next year.   Euro:  In contrast with the US, eurozone growth is set to slow in Q4. After two quarters that growth exceeded 2% quarter-over-quarter, growth is likely to moderate to below 1% in Q4 21 and Q1 22.  Food and energy are driving inflation higher.  The EC continues to negotiate with the UK over changes to the Northern Ireland Protocol.  The dispute over fishing licenses and migrant crossing of the channel are also unresolved sources of tension with the UK. Tensions between the EC and Poland/Hungary over the rule of law, judicial independence, and civil liberties have also not been settled.  As was the case in the spring, Russia's troop and artillery movement threatened Ukraine, though the tension on the Poland/Belarus border has eased.  The ECB's leadership continues to maintain the price pressures are related to the unusual set of circumstances but are ultimately temporary.  Its December 16 meeting, the last one before Bundesbank President Weidmann steps down, is critical. In addition to confirming the end of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program in March 2022, and the expansion of the Asset Purchase Program, the ECB staff will update its inflation forecasts.  The focus here is on the 2023 CPI projection of 1.5%.  There was a push back against it in September, and a slight upward revision is likely. Nevertheless, it will probably remain below the 2% target.  The swaps market is pricing in a 25 bp hike in 2023.   (November indicative closing prices, previous in parentheses)   Spot: $1.1335 ($1.1560) Median Bloomberg One-month Forecast $1.1375 ($1.1579)  One-month forward  $1.1350 ($1.1568)    One-month implied vol  7.1%  (5.1%)         Japanese Yen:  Japan has a new prime minister who has put together a large fiscal stimulus package that will help fuel the economic recovery that had begun getting traction since the formal state of emergency was lifted at the end of September.  After a frustratingly slow start, the inoculation efforts have started bearing fruit, with vaccination rates surpassing the US and many European countries.  Unlike most other high-income countries, Japan continues to experience deflationary pressures.  Food and energy prices may be concealing it in the CPI measure, but the GDP deflator in Q2 and Q3 was  -1.1%. However, the BOJ does not seem inclined to take additional measures and has reduced its equity and bond-buying efforts.  The exchange rate remains sensitive to the movement of the US 10-year note yield, which has chopped mostly between 1.50% and 1.70%. With a couple of exceptions in both directions, the greenback has traded in a JPY113-JPY115 range.  The emergence of the new Covid mutation turned the dollar back after threatening to break higher.  A convincing move above the JPY115.50 area would likely coincide with higher US rates and initially target the JPY118 area.    Spot: JPY113.10 (JPY113.95)       Median Bloomberg One-month Forecast JPY113.30 (JPY112.98)      One-month forward JPY113.00 (JPY113.90)    One-month implied vol  8.2% (6.4%)   British Pound:  Sterling never fully recovered from disappointment that the Bank of England did not hike rates in early November.  Market participants had understood the hawkish rhetoric, including by Governor Bailey, to signal a hike.  The implied yield of the December 2021 short-sterling interest rate futures plummeted by 30 bp by the end of the month, and sterling has not seen $1.36, let alone $1.37, since then.  Indeed, sterling chopped lower and recorded new lows for the year in late November near $1.3200.  Growth in the UK peaked in Q2 at 5.5% as it recovered from the Q1 contraction.  It slowed to a 1.3% pace in Q3 and looks to be slowing a bit more here in Q4.  The petty corruption scandals and ill-conceived speeches by Prime Minister Johnson have seen Labour move ahead in some recent polls.  An election does not need to be called until May 2024, but the flagging support may spur a cabinet reshuffle.  The next important chart point is not until around $1.3165 and then the $1.30 area, which holds primarily psychological significance.       Spot: $1.3300 ($1.3682)    Median Bloomberg One-month Forecast $1.3375 ($1.3691)  One-month forward $1.3315 ($1.3680)   One-month implied vol 7.5% (6.8%)      Canadian Dollar:  The Canadian dollar appreciated by almost 2.4% in October and gave it all back, plus some in November.  Indeed, the loss was sufficient to push it fractionally lower for the year (-0.4%), though it remains the best performing major currency against the US dollar.   The three major drivers of the exchange rate moved against the Canadian dollar last month.  First, its two-year premium over the US narrowed by 17 bp, the most in four years.  Second, the price of January WTI tumbled by around 18.2%.  Commodity prices fell more broadly, and the CRB Index snapped a seven-month rally with a 7.8% decline.  Third, the risk appetites faltered is reflected in the equity markets. The Delta Wave coupled with the new variant may disrupt growth.  Still, the swaps market has a little more than two hikes discounted over the next six months.   The government is winding down its emergency fiscal measures, but the spring budget and election promises mean that the fiscal consolidation next year will be soft.     Spot: CAD1.2775 (CAD 1.2388)  Median Bloomberg One-month Forecast CAD1.2685 (CAD1.2395) One-month forward CAD1.2770 (CAD1.2389)    One-month implied vol 7.2% (6.2%)      Australian Dollar:  The Australian dollar fell by more than 5% last month, slightly less than it did in March 2020.  It did not have an advancing week in November after rallying every week in October.  Australia's two-year premium over the US was chopped to less than 10 bp in November from nearly 28 bp at the end of October.  The Reserve Bank of Australia pushed back against aggressive rate hike speculation.   The unexpected loss of jobs in October for the third consecutive month took a toll on the Australian dollar, which proceeded to trend lower and recorded the low for the year on November 30, slightly below $0.7065.  A break of $0.7050 would initially target $0.7000, but convincing penetration could spur another 2-2.5-cent drop.  The 60-day rolling correlation between- changes in the Australian dollar and the CRB commodity index weakened from over 0.6% in October to below 0.4% in November. The correlation had begun recovering as the month drew to a close.       Spot:  $0.7125 ($0.7518)        Median Bloomberg One-Month Forecast $0.7195 ($0.7409)      One-month forward  $0.7135 ($0.7525)     One-month implied vol 9.7%  (9.1%)        Mexican Peso:  The broadly stronger US dollar and the prospects of more accelerated tapering weighed on emerging market currencies in November, but domestic considerations also weighed on the peso.   The Mexican peso fell by around 4.1%, the most since March 2020.  The economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.4% in Q3.  There is little fiscal support to speak of, while monetary policy is becoming less accommodative too slowly compared with some other emerging markets, such as Brazil.  Price pressures are still accelerating, and the bi-weekly CPI rose above 7% in mid-November. The swaps market discounts nearly a 25 bp hike a month for the next six months.  The government's policies, especially in the energy and service sectors, are not attractive to investors.  President AMLO dealt another blow to investor confidence by retracting the appointment of former Finance Minister Herrera for his deputy to head up the central bank starting in January.  This is seen potentially undermining one of the most credible institutions in Mexico.  Lastly, Mexico's trade balance has deteriorated sharply in recent months and through October has recorded an average monthly trade deficit of nearly $1.2 bln this year.  In the same period, in 2020, it enjoyed an average monthly surplus of almost $2.5 bln, and in the first ten months of 2019, the average monthly trade surplus was a little more than $150 mln.     Spot: MXN21.46 (MXN20.56)   Median Bloomberg One-Month Forecast  MXN21.23 (MXN20.42)   One-month forward  MXN21.60 (MXN20.65)     One-month implied vol 14.9% (9.6%)      Chinese Yuan:  The Chinese yuan has been remarkably stable against the US dollar, and given the greenback's strength, it means the yuan has appreciated sharply on a trade-weighted basis.  Going into the last month of the year, the yuan's 2.6% gain this year is the best in the world.  Chinese officials have signaled their displeasure with what it sees as a one-way market.  At best, it has orchestrated a broadly sideways exchange rate against the dollar, mainly between CNY6.37 and CNY6.40. The lower end of the dollar's range was under pressure as November drew to a close.   Even though the Chinese economy is likely to accelerate from the near-stagnation in Q3 (0.2% quarter-over-quarter GDP), it remains sufficiently weak that the PBOC is expected to consider new stimulative measures.  It last reduced reserves requirements in July, and this seems to be the preferred avenue rather than rate cuts.  Yet, given the interest rate premium (the 10-year yield is around 2.85%), record trade surpluses ($84.5 bln in October), portfolio inflows, and limited outflows, one would normally expect a stronger upward pressure on the exchange rate.    Spot: CNY6.3645 (CNY6.4055) Median Bloomberg One-month Forecast  CNY6.38 (CNY6.4430)  One-month forward CNY6.3860 (CNY6.4230)    One-month implied vol  3.5% (3.5%)    Disclaimer
Sundial Growers News and Forecast: SNDL back up in premarket after devastating 9% drop

Sundial Growers News and Forecast: SNDL back up in premarket after devastating 9% drop

FXStreet News FXStreet News 02.12.2021 17:11
SNDL shares fell 9% on Wednesday as the entire sector becomes less attractive. Sundial is still up 19% YTD but down 41% since November 12 high. Indiana and Germany mull further legalization. Sundial Growers (SNDL) stock dropped another 9% to $0.5655 on Wednesday. This arrives after the 2.1% fall in Tuesday's session. SNDL stock has dropped 41% since mid-November's range high, which was a product of better than expected Q3 earnings. The cannabis grower and distributor saw its stock rebound 2.7% to $0.5810 in Thursday's premarket. Sundial Growers (SNDL) Stock News: Indiana, Germany next on the list for possible legalization The Indiana Democratic Party has announced its intent to push for the legalization of cannabis on both the medical and recreational front. As such, it is holding the first of several community meetings in the Midwest state next week to receive public input. Germany's new coalitional government has signalled in recent days that it intends to legalize cannabis for recreational use. The central European country is already the world's largest medical marijuana market. Kentucky State Rep. Nima Kulkarni (D) has filed bills that would work to legalize cannabis in her state. The first bill would decriminalize the growing and sale of small amounts of marijuana. The second bill would allow those over 21 years of age to possess, buy or sell up to one ounce of marijuana and grow as many as five plants for personal use. There is no word yet on whether or not the newfound takeover king of Canada's cannabis industry will announce yet another acquisition. Since the beginning of the year, Sundial has used its own shares to buy up multiple assets. It began the year by acquiring cannabis retailer Inner Spirit for C$131 million. It bought Canadian liquor distributor Alcanna for C$346 million. Alcanna owns two-thirds of Nova Cannabis, a retail operation that should drive future revenue growth. Nova Cannabis owns more than 60 cannabis retail shops in Canada. With more than C$500 million still on its balance sheet, many observers think the shopping spree is not yet over as Sundial seeks to grow itself via acquisition. If Sundial again issued new shares to pay for another acquisition instead of its cash, then-current investors would be even further diluted. This concern may be driving the current sell-off in the share price. SNDL key statistics Market Cap $1.2 billion Price/Earnings 5 Price/Sales 25 Price/Book 1 Enterprise Value $737 million Operating Margin -142% Profit Margin 0% 52-week high $3.96 52-week low $0.42 Short Interest 15% Average Wall Street Rating and Price Target Hold, $1.01   Sundial Growers (SNDL) Stock Forecast: Stock price headed to $0.50 On Wednesday, SNDL shares broke through long-term support from October 6 just above $0.61. This means the stock has little if any support until $0.50. From Wednesday's story: "If SNDL breaks this level to close below $0.60, then $0.50 is the next support. The stock danced around this level from December 2019 through January 2020. Tuesday saw a brief low below October 6, so expect the break lower to happen again." Though the stock is up about 2.7% in the premarket on Thursday, FXStreet expects it to keep tumbling. The 20-day moving average crossed over the 9-day moving average at $0.71 on Monday, meaning that level is the price to beat in order for bulls to ride to the rescue. Above here is only the mid-November swing high at $0.95 where the stock faced resistance two sessions in a row. XCAN, the S&P/TSX Cannabis Index, is down 34% year to date, while SNDL is up 17%. SNDL 1-day chart
Hawks Triumph, Doves Lose, Gold Bulls Cry!

Hawks Triumph, Doves Lose, Gold Bulls Cry!

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 02.12.2021 17:20
The hawkish revolution continues. Powell, among the screams of monetary doves, suggested this week that tapering could be accelerated in December! People live unaware that an epic battle between good and evil, the light and dark side of the Force, hard-working entrepreneurs and tax officials is waged every day. What’s more, hawks and doves constantly fight as well, and this week brought a victory for the hawks among the FOMC. The triumph came on Tuesday when Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before Congress. He admitted that inflation wasn’t “transitory”, as it is only expected to ease in the second half of 2022. Inflation is therefore more persistent and broad-based than the Fed stubbornly maintained earlier this year, contrary to evidence and common sense: Generally, the higher prices we’re seeing are related to the supply and demand imbalances that can be traced directly back to the pandemic and the reopening of the economy. But it’s also the case that price increases have spread much more broadly and I think the risk of higher inflation has increased. Importantly, Powell also agreed that “it’s probably a good time to retire that word.” You don’t say! Hence, the Fed was wrong, and I was right. Hurray! However, it’s a Pyrrhic victory for gold bulls. This is because the recognition of the persistence of inflation pushes the Fed toward a more hawkish position. Indeed, Powell suggested that the FOMC participants could discuss speeding up the taper of quantitative easing in December: At this point the economy is very strong and inflationary pressures are high and it is therefore appropriate, in my view, to consider wrapping up the taper of our asset purchases, which we actually announced at the November meeting, perhaps a few months sooner, and I expect that we will discuss that at our upcoming meeting in a couple of weeks. What’s more, Powell seemed to be unaffected by the Omicron coronavirus strain news. He was a bit concerned, but not about its disturbing impact on the demand side of the economy; he found supply-chain disruptions that could intensify inflation way more important. That’s yet another manifestation of Powell’s hawkish stance.   Implications for Gold What does the Fed’s hawkish tilt imply for the gold market? Well, gold bulls get along with doves, not hawks. A more aggressive tightening cycle, including faster tapering of asset purchases, could boost expectations of more decisive interest rates hikes. In turn, the prospects of a more hawkish Fed could increase the bond yields and strengthen the US dollar. All this sounds bearish for gold. Indeed, the London price of gold dropped on Wednesday below $1,800… again, as the chart above shows. Hence, gold’s inability to stay above $1,800 is disappointing, especially in the face of high inflation and market uncertainty. Investors seem to have once again believed that the Fed will be curbing inflation. Well, that’s possible, but my claim is that despite a likely acceleration in the pace of the taper, inflation will remain high for a while. I bet that despite the recent hawkish tilt, the Fed will stay behind the curve. This means that the real interest rates should stay negative, providing support for gold prices. The previous tightening cycle brought the federal funds rate to 2.25-2.5%, and we know that after an economic crisis, interest rates never return to the pre-crisis level. This is also what the euro-dollar futures suggests: that the upcoming rate hike cycle will end below 2%. The level of indebtedness and financial markets’ addiction to easy money simply do not allow the Fed to undertake more aggressive actions. Will gold struggle in the upcoming months then? Yes. Gold bulls could cry. But remember: tears cleanse and create more room for joy in the future. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Stock markets worry as Omicron uncertainty increases

Stock markets worry as Omicron uncertainty increases

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 30.11.2021 15:12
Investors received contrasting views relating to the new variant of the coronavirus which caused a significant pullback at the end of last week and was followed by an attempted recovery during Monday's session. However, the situation has changed again today with the majority of stock indices pulling back from yesterday’s close and dropping to new lows as moods worsened following comments from Moderna’s CEO stating that the new variant could be more resistant to currently available vaccines. While most consider widespread total lockdown an unlikely scenario, any major disruption to the post pandemic recovery caused by restrictions or supply chain issues could have disastrous consequences on markets and could potentially lead to central bank interventions once again. Easyjet upbeat yearly results unable to boost share price While today's yearly results may provide some reassurance thanks to better than expected figures, showing a headline loss before tax of £1,136 million and a commitment to continue the company's cost saving policy as well as expanding it in the future, they were unable to boost share price with the stock continuing to trade below yesterday's close and despite a brief attempt to recover, reaching the lowest level since the beginning of November. Investors will be closely following the ongoing pandemic situation as any major lockdowns or restrictions could have far reaching effects for the company and airline industry as a whole heading towards the end of 2021
Huge News! The Fed’s Tapering Is Finally Here!

Huge News! The Fed’s Tapering Is Finally Here!

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 04.11.2021 15:04
The Fed has announced tapering of its quantitative easing! Preparing for the worst, gold declined even before the release - will it get to its feet? . Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome to the stage the one and only tapering of the Fed’s quantitative easing! Yesterday was that day – the day when the FOMC announced a slowdown in the pace of its asset purchases: In light of the substantial further progress the economy has made toward the Committee's goals since last December, the Committee decided to begin reducing the monthly pace of its net asset purchases by $10 billion for Treasury securities and $5 billion for agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning later this month, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $70 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $35 billion per month. It’s all but a bombshell, as this move was widely expected by the markets. However, what can be seen as surprising is the Fed’s decision to scale back its asset purchases already in November instead of waiting with the actual start until December. Hawks might be pleased – contrary to doves and gold bulls. How is the tapering going to work? The Fed will reduce the monthly pace of its net asset purchases by $10 billion for Treasury securities and $5 billion for agency mortgage-backed securities each month: Beginning in December, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $60 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $30 billion per month. The Committee judges that similar reductions in the pace of net asset purchases will likely be appropriate each month, but it is prepared to adjust the pace of purchases if warranted by changes in the economic outlook. So, instead of buying Treasuries worth $80 billion and agency mortgage‑backed securities worth $40 billion (at least), the Fed will purchase $70 billion of Treasuries later this month and $35 billion of MBS, respectively. Then, it will buy $60 billion of Treasuries and $30 billion of MBS in December, $50 billion of Treasuries and $25 billion of MBS in January, and so on until the last round of purchases in May 2022. This means that the quantitative easing will be completed by mid-year if nothing changes along the way. The announcement of the tapering was undoubtedly the biggest event; however, I would like to point out one more modification. The sentence “inflation is elevated, largely reflecting transitory factors” was replaced in the newest statement with “inflation is elevated, largely reflecting factors that are expected to be transitory”. It’s not a big alteration, but “expected to be” is weaker than simply “is”. This means that the Fed’s confidence in its own transitory narrative has diminished, which implies that inflation might be more persistent than initially thought, which could support gold prices more decisively at some point in the future. The Fed also explained why prices are rising: “Supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and the reopening of the economy have contributed to sizable price increases in some sectors”. Unsurprisingly, the Fed didn’t mention the surge in the money supply and the unconventional monetary and fiscal policies, just “imbalances”! Implications for Gold What does the Fed’s announcement of a slowdown in asset purchases imply for the gold market? Well, the yellow metal showed little reaction to the FOMC statement, as tapering was in line with market expectations. Actually, gold prices fell to three-week lows in the morning — right after the publication of positive economic data but before the statement. However, gold started to rebound after the FOMC announcement, as the chart below shows. Why? The likely reason is that both the statement and Powell’s press conference were less hawkish than expected. After all, the Fed did very little to signal interest rate hikes. What’s more, Powell expressed some dovish remarks. For instance, he said that it was a bad time to hike interest rates: “it will be premature to raise rates today” (…) We don’t think it is a good time to raise interest rates because we want to see the labor market heal more.” The bottom line is that gold’s reaction to the FOMC statement was muted, as tapering was apparently already priced in. The lack of bearish reaction is a positive sign. However, gold’s struggle could continue for a while, perhaps until the Fed starts its tightening cycle. For now, all eyes are on Friday’s non-farm payrolls. Stay tuned! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Awaits Breakout - 03.12.2021

Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Awaits Breakout - 03.12.2021

John Benjamin John Benjamin 03.12.2021 09:42
XAUUSD tests key support Gold treads water as markets await US jobs data release. The metal remains under pressure after it failed to maintain bids above 1780. Sellers are testing the daily support at 1760. A bearish breakout would shatter hopes of a swift rebound and send the price to last September’s low at 1725. That move could then threaten the integrity of the uptrend on a longer timeframe. 1806 is a fresh resistance and sellers could be waiting to double down at a better price. On the upside, a bullish breakout may propel the metal to 1845. EURUSD attempts bullish reversal The euro recoups losses as traders reposition ahead of today’s nonfarm payrolls. A bullish RSI divergence indicates a slowdown in the bearish push. The pair has found support near June 2020’s lows around 1.1190. Then successive breaks above 1.1270 and 1.1370 have prompted short interests to bail, paving the way for a potential reversal. 1.1460 next to the 30-day moving average would be the target and its breach may turn sentiment around. 1.1240 is a key support to keep the rebound relevant. US 500 heads towards daily support The S&P 500 continues on its way down as investors jump ship amid the omicron scare. The latest rebound has been capped by 4650, a sign that the bears are in control of short-term price action. A combination of pessimism and lack of buying interest means that the index is stuck in a bearish spiral. An oversold RSI may cause a limited rebound as intraday sellers cover their positions. 4450 at the origin of a previous bullish breakout would be the next target. 4360 is a second line of defense that sits in a daily demand zone.
Bridge Too Far

Bridge Too Far

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 02.12.2021 16:36
S&P 500 gave up sharp intraday gains on the first Omicron patient in CA. Corona packing punch still, and sending TLT far above yesterday‘s highs while the dollar remained unchanged. That‘s as risk-off as can be on a little surprising headline – the key difference is though that the Fed doesn‘t have the back of buy the dippers this time. The accelerated taper noises coupled with demand destruction thanks to Omicron, is delivering an inflation repreive. Make no mistake though, should demand be choked off too hard, fresh stimulus would have to come – for now in the heat increasingly being turned on, practically all asset classes suffer to varying degrees. The market isn‘t yet at a stage of sniffing out fresh stimulus countering the destructive policy effects which are being felt currently. Economic activity around the world hasn‘t been hampered, but markets are willing to err on the pessimistic side. For now and still – only when the riskier debt instruments such as HYG turn up to deal with the prior downswing, would be a reason to cheer for animal spirits returning. That idea sounds though hollow at this time. The bears have the upper hand unless proven otherwise – that is, by a close in the 4670s. Which is what the title says... Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 breaking below the 50-day moving average, and taking time consolidating below, isn‘t bullish at all. The reversal was broad based, arguably hitting value more. Yes, market breadth is dismal. Credit Markets Positive HYG divergence is gone – the broad underperformance of S&P 500 must be reversed first to make stock market upswings trustworthy. It remains unclear how much would HYG be able to rebound when quality debt instruments cool off. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals weakness remains, but isn‘t convincing enough to short the market, no. The coming reversal to the upside would be ferocious, but we aren‘t there yet. Crude Oil Crude oil plunge is slowing down, and it‘s more than black gold that‘s looking for direction here – this concerns the commodities complex as such. I‘m looking for copper to show the way, and oil to follow. Copper Copper is sitting at a rising support line, undecided yet whether to take the Fed and Omicron threats seriously or not. It‘s wait and see for now, but the bullish side has the medium-term upper hand. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are cautious as well, but the bears are looking for an ambush – let‘s see how far they can get. Summary The ugly S&P 500 close concerns both value and tech – and there was no premarket upswing to speak of. The bears have the upper hand for today as markets look to be in the phase of sell first, ask questions later. Any reversal (in stocks or commodities) has to be accompanied by a credible upswing in riskier bonds, ideally with money coming out of the dollar as well. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
FX Update: Omicron whiplash for USDJPY

FX Update: Omicron whiplash for USDJPY

John Hardy John Hardy 29.11.2021 13:42
Forex 2021-11-29 13:00 4 minutes to read Summary:  The Friday meltdown in USDJPY and JPY crosses was all about position squaring as we had just come from a place of anticipating a more hawkish shift from central banks, particularly the US Fed. The sense of whiplash was most acute in USDJPY, which had just been up testing multi-year highs before the deleveraging across markets on the new omicron covid variant clouding the outlook. FX Trading focus: Narrative whiplash for JPY traders on omicron variant concerns The news of the new omicron variant of covid could not have come at a more difficult time for the market to absorb for at least two reasons. First, of course, was the poor liquidity when US markets were closed Thursday and only open part of Friday due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Second was that we had just earlier the same week seen Fed Chair Powell and Brainard elevating the relative focus and position of grappling with inflation in their acceptance speeches, which had sent Fed rate hike expectations to new highs for the cycle early last week before the news hit. That ratcheting up of Fed rate anticipation had helped take USDJPY to new highs since early 2017 above 115.00 and EURUSD to new lows below 1.1200. But the positioning build-up in USDJPY has been far more extreme and the reaction in JPY crosses on Friday was fully in fitting with the JPY’s old status as a safe haven. Note that AUDJPY had its worst single-day drop since the heart of the pandemic outbreak panic in March of last year, while EURJPY has poked below the important 128.00 area that would suggest a break-down if the move holds. EURUSD rose sharply, as the sudden repricing of the Fed saw the EU-US yield spread tightening sharply, but the move would have to extend as far as 1.1500 to start having more profound technical implications. Has the market taken the news too far? That is not for me to judge, as it will take some time to assess the status of the reach of the current outbreak transmissibility, virulence and vaccine-evading characteristics of this new variant, all while real damage is being done as some countries are limiting travel, some merely from the areas where the new variant was discovered in southern Africa, while Japan has announced a full ban on inbound travel starting tomorrow. US President Biden will speak on the new variant later today. What does the best outcome look like? The omicron variant proves very transmissible, but is considerably milder and/or not particularly good at getting around the existing vaccines. Worst case involves some combination of significant vaccine evading characteristics and virulence that is anywhere similar to prior variants. I suspect that without immediate good news (real news surely requires at least a week from here?), the uncertainty could see risk-correlated trades dragged lower before things can improve, but a significant further deterioration in risk assets would likely require actual bad news emerging rather than merely an extension of the uncertainty. Regarding a timeline for learning more about the risks from the omicron variant, it’s best perhaps to admit that I have no clue, but a Reuters article suggests the major vaccine makers may be able to determine efficacy of existing vaccines in about two weeks. Chart: USDJPYWhile other JPY crosses were bigger movers on Friday, the technical development in USDJPY was the most remarkable, as it came off new cycle- and multi-year highs. The damage is significant locally, but would turn more severe if the 112.73 pivot low from October is broken and then goes on to challenge the more structurally significant 111.50-111.00 area. Source: Saxo Group Looking at the week ahead, we would normally be touting the importance of the next set of US survey numbers (November Consumer Confidence and November ISM Manufacturing on Wednesday and ISM Services on Friday) and November jobs and earnings numbers on Friday, but instead, we’ll have to juggle the ongoing news flow and headlines from the new virus variant and may have to file these data away for a later “pent-up” reaction if the omicron variant impact dissipates. Besides the US dollar and the JPY, I will watch all points on the US yield curve and risk sentiment measures closely for how the market is reading the situation. Powell is out today with opening remarks at some event - more interesting is testimony tomorrow, together with Treasury Secretary Yellen, on the policy response to the pandemic, which could see interesting exchanges on inflation, etc.  Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strengthThe JPY is in a very different place from where it was a week ago or even two trading sessions ago and looks to remain the high-beta currency to whether the virus news drags market sentiment. The SEK reading looks extreme, but difficult to fade in terms of picking levels – downside put spreads in EURSEK the cautious way to proceed for those interested in fading this move now rather than waiting for a reversal pattern to develop. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.Talking trends is treacherous business when the market goes into headline reactivity mode, but note that USDJPY and CNHJPY turning negative (if they close lower today) would make it a clean sweep for the JPY across the board. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1300 – Germany Nov. Flash CPI 1330 – Canada Oct. Industrial Product Prices 1530 – US Nov. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey 1715 – ECB President Lagarde to speak 2000 – US Fed’s Williams (voter) to speak 2005 – US Fed Chair Powell gives opening remarks at conference 2350 – Japan Oct. Industrial Production US President Biden to speak about omicron variant 0030 – Australia Oct. Building Approvals 0100 – China Nov. Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing PMI 0200 – Australia RBA’s Debelle to speak
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Accumulates Support

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Accumulates Support

John Benjamin John Benjamin 02.12.2021 08:58
USDCHF to test key support The US dollar stabilized after Jerome Powell hinted at speeding up the taper pace. The break below 0.9270 has put the rally on hold. The support has turned into resistance with the latest rebound fading. But a bullish divergence suggests a loss of momentum in the retracement as the price approaches 0.9140. Buying could be expected in this demand zone around November’s low 0.9100. Sentiment remains upbeat as long as the greenback is above this level. A bounce above 0.9270 may resume the uptrend. XAGUSD remains under pressure Silver struggled after US Treasury yields jumped on Fed’s hawkish tilt. A bearish MA cross on the daily chart indicates a deterioration in the market mood after a drop below the floor at 23.00. An oversold RSI caused a limited rebound which was then capped by 23.30. This was a sign that the bears were still in control of the direction. The psychological level of 22.00 is the next support. Its breach would lead to September’s lows at 21.50, an important level to keep the metal afloat in the medium term. USOIL tests major demand zone WTI crude inches higher as OPEC+ discuss whether to let additional output flow as previously planned. The price is hovering above a major demand zone between 62.00 and 64.00. A bullish RSI divergence indicates that the selling pressure might have eased. A rally above 71.20 could force the short side to cover and bring in more buying momentum. Then 76.00 would be the next hurdle before a full-blown recovery. On the downside, a bearish breakout could trigger a broader sell-off and potentially derail a 19-month long rally.
Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: ETH outperforming its peers, BTC struggles and XRP bearish

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: ETH outperforming its peers, BTC struggles and XRP bearish

FXStreet News FXStreet News 02.12.2021 17:11
Bitcoin refrains from making new highs as Tuesday’s gap-fill kills uptrend continuation. Ethereum outpaces its peers by barely hitting new all-time highs. XRP price again looking for direction as investors interest wanes. The Bitcoin bull rally got stopped in its tracks this week after BTC price came under more pressure from the Omicron story, and the resulting market turmoil. Ethereum price, however, came just $16 away from making a new record high, making gains in contrast to the other two majors. XRP saw investors buying the dip, but the uptrend hit a wall and got stopped in its tracks. Bitcoin price on the backfoot after a slowdown that made it lose bullish momentum Bitcoin (BTC) price popped higher at the beginning of the week, shrugging off investors' concerns about the new Covid variant. On Monday, BTC price opened up much higher than where it closed on Sunday, forming a gap in the chart. As a general rule, gaps get filled sooner rather than later, and this was the case on Monday, when bulls saw their early gains lost as BTC price retraced to fill the gap. Bears have seized the opportunity to defend the new monthly pivot for December at $59,586, which coincides with the start of a Fibonacci retracement.. Evidence of this weakening can be found in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), dipping back below 50, showing that bullish demand is starting to wane. BTC/USD daily chart As a result of current market uncertainty, expect potential investors to stay on the sidelines. Although the red descending trend line has been broken a little, it still holds importance and investors will probably only step in following a break back above it, helped, perhaps, by breaking news about vaccine effectiveness against the new strain. Either that or investors will sit on their hands and wait for another bounce off $53.350. Should that level fail to hold, however, and there is more bad news, expect a quick 6% drop towards the $50,000 psychological level and previous historical support. At that level bulls will likely mount a defence against a further downturn. Ethereum price outpaces its peers and could make new highs by the end of this week Ethereum (ETH) price, unlike Bitcoin and XRP, saw bulls run a tight and steep rally from $4,000 towards $4,936 in just five days. That was in a troubled market-facing considerable headwinds. That said, bulls now need to keep a tight stop on current ETH price action in order for a bull trap not to form, after the pull-back on profit-taking that occurred in the wake of price barely hitting an all-time high. ETH quickly reversed from its highs on Wednesday and tested the December pivot at $4,481. That is just $16 above the historical technical level marked up on the chart from November 12. This is a level of great importance and it will be very interesting to see if bulls can maintain price action above it, perhaps, helped by a possible bounce off the red top line that has so far been successfully capping price action to the upside. ETH/USD daily chart That red descending trend line, on the other hand, should support a break below $4,465, but if bulls flee the scene, expect a bull trap to form and price to run down lower. The first support tested in that decline is the historical double top at $4,060, with the monthly S1 support level at $4,000 just below there. The correction could already hold 18% of accrued losses from the highs of Wednesday, which would attract investors interested in the buying opportunity at those levels. Ethereum prices breaks all resistance barriers, with $5,000 within sight XRP price sees bulls rejected at $1.05, pushing price back towards $0.88 Ripple (XRP) price saw sparks fly in a nice uptrend on Wednesday, but then hit a bump in the road after the $1.05 level held firmly, following two failed tests to the upside. The rejection that squeezed prices to the downside on Tuesday, probably washed out quite a lot of investors and technical traders, and caused the lack of momentum and drive in XRP price action to tackle that $1.05 resistance. As the price fades further to the downside today, expect current market uncertainty to weigh further on XRP and see a possible retest of the short-term double bottom at $0.88. XRP/USD daily chart On a retest of that double bottom, a break looks more than likely, as the level holds no historical or other significance. That would hand bears the opportunity to push XRP price down towards either $0.84, for the third test of support at that level, or breakthrough and run down to $0.80, which is a prominent figure and the level of the monthly S1 pivot support level, combined with a historical significant support level at $0.78, originating from June 8. This would provide the perfect zone for a fade-in trade for XRP traders. XRP price appears to develop nasty bear trap
Ready, set, silver, go

Ready, set, silver, go

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 03.12.2021 12:56
The most obvious first step is: “How much?” Depending on your time horizon and if your approach is purely diversification for your overall portfolio, a percentage of total investment capital needs to be set. This percentage should be higher on a more aggressive wealth preservation strategy and higher expected returns on beating inflation. Another aspect is if silver is traded as the only hedge or alongside other precious metals. Silver already has a leverage factor in relationship to gold. For example, gold’s response to covid was a 37% up move, while silver moved up 80%. This volatility leverage works both ways, increasing the risk for silver if not purchased on low-risk entry points and traded with appropriate money management. We have pointed out various reasons why we find silver an extremely attractive play long term in this year’s chart book releases. Monthly chart (a week ago), Silver in US-Dollar, ready: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 26th, 2021. The above chart was posted in our last week’s publication. We wrote:” The monthly chart shows a high likelihood for November’s candle closing as an inverted hammer. Consequently, it provides for silver prices approaching the low end of the last 17-month sideways range near US$22.” Monthly chart, Silver in US-Dollar, set: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of December 3rd, 2021. We were spot on. The anticipated entry zone has been reached. We added to our physical holdings and shared the trade live in our free Telegram channel. Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, silver: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of December 3rd, 2021. We asked, “how much?” and in what diversification, which leaves us with the question of what denomination. The rule of thumb is that the smaller the weight amount is and the more recognizable the brand, the higher the cost. In addition, valuable numismatic collector’s coins have premiums as well. Generally, we find the added cost of brand items (Canadian maple leaf, American eagles, Austrian Philharmonic, and alike) to be of value since it adds to liquidity at a time of sale. While we would stay away from the added cost of numismatic collectible coins, we find there to be value to have a mix of coins and larger bars to arrive at a reasonably low-cost basis with a high degree of liquidity at the time of sale (larger bars are harder to sell than one-ounce coins). The weekly chart above illustrates that as much as we have entered the “shopping zone” for silver, there is a probability that we might see a quick spike down as we have seen at the end of September. As pointed out in the previous chart book, the goal of physical acquisition should not be the ultimate lowest price but availability and execution itself. We make a point of this, especially since we noticed that physical acquisition prices have in percentage retraced much less than the spot price right here, and once the turn is complete, could proportionally faster jolt up. Silver in US-Dollar, quarterly chart, go: Silver in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of December 3rd, 2021. It is essential to have an exit strategy in place before entry. These exit projections are necessary to measure risk/reward-ratios. Moreover, with the entire plan clear, there will be no debate while in the trade. This part of exit psychology is often overlooked, but a low-risk entry point alone does not provide a good strategy. We expect a price advance on silver within the next six to eight quarters to a price target of US$74.40! Significant profits allowing for an outstanding risk/reward-ratio. Ready, set, silver, go: Last week, we anticipated the market’s direction correctly and find ourselves now at the desired low-risk entry zone. With possible additional questions about physical acquisition answered today, we might have reduced doubt. The devil is in the details, and due to the various countries, their taxation law, and the wide variety of official precious metal dealers, we did not dive into the details on where to take possession of your possibly desired purchase.  Nevertheless, our multinational membership in our free Telegram channel might provide helpful information to your specific situation. We hope we have provided enough knowledge to erase doubt. We encourage participation since we see procrastination towards a wealth preservation strategy as the poorest choice in this challenging time for your hard-earned money. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|December 3rd, 2021|Tags: Crack-Up-Boom, Gold, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Bubble stocks destruction continues with 30% plunge in DocuSign

Bubble stocks destruction continues with 30% plunge in DocuSign

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 03.12.2021 14:35
Equities 2021-12-03 14:15 7 minutes to readSummary:  As we have written about in several equity notes, the bubble stocks segment has been under enormous pressure this year and in recent weeks the destruction in market value has intensified at a blistering pace. The tailwind from the pandemic that has benefitted many technology companies is easing faster than expected and the worsening inflation outlook is making many growth investors wary of the future direction for interest rates which play an important role in equity valuations of growth stocks. We touch on DocuSign and its Q4 revenue miss last night which caused a 30% plunge in its shares underscoring the fragility in growth stocks with high expectations.The fallout in bubble stocks show importance of balanceIn yesterday’s equity note, we discussed bubble stocks and how this group of stocks have been under pressure since February as the pandemic tailwind on growth has eased and the inflation outlook has worsened causing markets to readjust their interest rate outlook. Low interest rates have been the key driver of excessive valuations in this bubble segment and now as the tide is turning investors are readjusting their exposure. As we move into 2022, we will reiterate our view on equities that we like semiconductors, commodity sector, logistics, cyber security, mega caps, financial trading companies (a play on interest rates and volatility), and battery, which most of them are plays on the physical world making a comeback against the digital world. In a rising inflationary environment our preferred themes can make growth portfolio with exposure to bubble stocks more balanced in terms of risk.Momentum crash and Danish equities under pressureLike our bubble basket, Morgan Stanley has their own most crowded stocks basket which has just dropped more than 10% relative to the S&P 500, the most on record since 2013 underscoring the massive destruction that is currently taking place. While Tracy Alloway from Bloomberg calls it a new “quant crisis”, our view is that it is more a classic momentum crash as momentum strategies sitting on fat gains over the past 18 months are drastically reducing positions. When we reach the bottom is very uncertain but if we are in a momentum crash then it is the illiquidity that drives the explosive price action.Source: TwitterIn our recent string of equity notes on interest rate sensitivity and bubble stocks we also mentioned Danish equities as being interest rate sensitive together with other equity markets such as the Netherlands, Switzerland, United States, and India. But given the recent weeks price action it seems there is an overlap to the bubble stocks selloff suggesting the readjustments in equities are more profound. Source: Saxo GroupDocuSign shares plunging 30% show fragility for growth stocksAnother sign of the stress in the bubble stocks segment of the equity market is the 30% plunge in DocuSign, the leader in electronic signature, following a Q4 (ending 31 January 2022) revenue guidance missing estimates; the revenue guidance was $557-563mn vs est. $574mn. The price reaction shows how fragile these stocks are to a small change in revenue expectations and clearly the risks associated with bubble stocks. We should point out, that DocuSign does not fit all criteria for being added to our bubble stocks basket because the 12-month forward earnings expectations are positive whereas we require those to be negative to be called a bubble stock. The revenue miss has caused sell-side analysts to drastically cut the median price target to $275 from around previously $330 against a close of $164 in extended trading yesterday.Source: BloombergSource: Saxo Group
Polkadot price ready to breakout after DOT forms double bottom

Polkadot price ready to breakout after DOT forms double bottom

FXStreet News FXStreet News 04.12.2021 17:39
Polkadot price is hovering above a support level at $35.47, hinting at the start of a new uptrend. A bounce off this barrier is likely to trigger a 20% ascent to $42.77. If DOT fails to hold above $32.23, it will invalidate the bullish thesis. Polkadot price began turning around and moving higher on November 28. It is currently resting on support after a brief pull-back, with the potential for using this floor as a launchpad higher. A resumption of the bullish impulse will provide fresh confirmation for the new uptrend. Polkadot price eyes higher highs Polkadot price rallied 72% after bottoming at $32.18 on October 12. This upswing soon began stalling, however, due to profit-taking, knocking DOT back down by roughly 41% in about three weeks, creating the second swing low at $32.18. This development has led to the formation of a double bottom reversal pattern, hinting at the potential for more upside. So far, Polkadot price has rallied only 22% and is likely to provide another ‘buy’ opportunity before it enters an ‘up only’ bullish mode. In fact, DOT is currently in a buy zone as it retests the $35.47 support floor. A bounce off this level will likely trigger a 20% surge to $42.77. Polkadot price needs to pierce through the $37.55 hurdle to confirm the start of this new uptrend, however. DOT/USDT 12-hour chart Regardless of the bullish outlook, if Polkadot price fails to hold above the $35.47 support level, it will suggest that investors are not done booking profits. In such a situation, DOT is likely to revisit the $32.23 demand barrier. While there is a chance Polkadot price might sweep below this level to collect liquidity, a daily close below it will invalidate the bullish thesis. In such a situation, market participants can expect DOT to continue its descent to the next platform at $29.74.
Bonds Didn‘t Disappoint

Bonds Didn‘t Disappoint

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 03.12.2021 15:57
S&P 500 sharply rebounded, and signs are it has legs. My key risk-on indicator to watch yesterday, HYG, turned up really strongly. No problem that the dollar didn‘t decline, it‘s enough that financials and energy caught some breath. We‘re turning to risk-on as Omicron didn‘t cause the sky to fall. What a relief! Seriously, it doesn‘t look that hard lockdowns would be employed, which means the market bulls can probe to go higher again. What I told you on Wednesday already in the title It‘s the Fed, Not Omicron, today‘s non-farm payrolls illustrate. Such was the game plan before the data release, and this refrain of bad is the new good, is what followed. The Fed is desperately behind the curve in taming inflation, and its late acknowledgment thereof, doesn‘t change the bleak prospects of tapering (let alone accelerated one) into a sputtering economy. What we‘re experiencing currently in the stock market, is a mere preview of trouble to strike in 2022. We‘re in the topping process, and HYG holds the key as stated yesterday. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 returned above the 50-day moving average, the volume wasn‘t suspicious – the bulls have regained the benefit of the doubt, and need to extend gains convincingly and sectorally broadly next. Credit Markets HYG successfully defending gained ground, would be a key signal of strength returning to risk-on assets and lifting up S&P 500. There is still much to go – remember that the sharpest rallies happen in bear markets, so all eyes on HYG proving us either way. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals weakness looks deceptive and prone to reversal to me – the real fireworks though still have to wait till the Fed gets doubted with bets placed against its narratives. Crude Oil Crude oil plunge is getting slowly reversed, about to. Beaten down the most lately, black gold is readying an upside surprise. Copper Copper is turning higher, taking time, but turning up – it‘s positive, but still more of paring back recent setback than leading higher. I‘m reasonably optimistic, and acknowledge much time is needed to reach fresh highs. Bitcoin and Ethereum The bearish ambush of Bitcoin and Ethereum didn‘t get too far – crypto consolidation goes on, no need to panic or get excited yet. Summary S&P 500 is in a recovery mode, and the bulls look ready to prove themselves. The keenly watched HYG close presaged the odds broadly tipping the risk-on way, just as much as cyclicals did. It‘s a good omen that commodities are reacting – not too hot, not too cold – with precious metals in tow. In tow, as the Fed isn‘t yet being doubted – the NFPs are a first swallow of its inability to carry out tapering plans till the (accelerated or not) end. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
The Trade Entry Has Been Triggered – How to Secure Profits?

The Trade Entry Has Been Triggered – How to Secure Profits?

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 03.12.2021 15:34
  Entry… triggered! The price rallies to the Moon, but you don’t want to cash out “just yet” - am I right? So, let’s see how to prevent hard landing. There are obviously several methods to assess risk and thus to manage it, depending on one’s risk appetite or what is also more commonly known as risk profile. One method I use on swing (longer-term) trades is to manually lift my stop once – at least – 50% of the first target has been reached on a swing trade. I provide such trades on Sunshine Profits based on the projections I draw. Let’s take a practical case: in my last trade position on WTI crude oil provided on Nov-30, the market found a floor around $66. Then after being pushed up by the bulls, it rebounded onto that support level ($65.70-66.21), and rallied up to $69.49. So, if we take our reference entry in the middle of the yellow band at $66, the market moved up exactly 70% of the total distance to the target 1. At this point, to avoid giving profits away, an option would be to lift the stop to net breakeven ($66 + commissions/fees) so that the risk for that trade could get offset once 50% of the distance to the target 1 is passed. Following that, if, for example, the market pursues its rally further – let’s say up to 60% – then the stop will be lifted to net breakeven + 10% of the distance to the target 1. In our case the market rallied up to 70% of the distance to the target 1, so the stop should be lifted to net breakeven + 20% of the distance to the target 1. From my experience, this may represent a good way to manually trail your stop. Of course, there are many different methods to do so, but I haven’t heard of many investors or traders mentioning that one, therefore I wanted to present it here. The following chart is the one I posted in my trade review published on Wednesday, the 1st of December: WTI Crude Oil (CLF22) Futures (January contract, daily chart from Dec-1) To better visualize the price action that occurred, we zoomed into the 4-hour chart: WTI Crude Oil (CLF22) Futures (January contract, 4H chart from Dec-1) As you can see, the level provided was optimum given its function to act as a floor for rebounding prices. Then, the market was up to 70% of the total distance to reach the target 1, and finally reverted back down to the stop level. Now, this is today’s chart: WTI Crude Oil (CLF22) Futures (January contract, daily chart) Again, a zoom into the 4H chart lets us see more details of the price action that occurred: WTI Crude Oil (CLF22) Futures (January contract, 4H chart) In summary, using such a method of risk management to keep intermediate profits before the trade reverts strongly to the downside might be a good idea, particularly during high volatility periods. Are you interested in seeing this strategy in action? Make sure to check my Oil Trading Alerts! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
S&P 500 – Is a 5% Correction Enough?

S&P 500 – Is a 5% Correction Enough?

Paul Rejczak Paul Rejczak 03.12.2021 15:57
  The S&P 500 bounced from the 4,500 level on Thursday, as it retraced most of its Wednesday’s sell-off. Was it a reversal or just another upward correction? For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch   The broad stock market index gained 1.42% on Thursday after opening slightly lower and bouncing from the new local low of 4,504.73. The index fell the lowest since the October 19 and it went below its early September local high of around 4,546. Overall, it lost 5.04% from the Nov. 22 record high of 4,743.83. But Thursday’s trading session was bullish and stocks were gaining. Was it an upward reversal? This morning stocks are expected to open 0.3% higher after the mixed monthly jobs data release. For now, it looks like a correction within a downtrend. We may see a short-term consolidation following the recent declines. The nearest important support level is now at 4,500. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,580-4,600, marked by the recent local lows. The S&P 500 remains below its short-term downward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq 100 Remains Close to the 16,000 Level Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index remains relatively stronger than the broad stock market, as it is still trading above the early September local highs of around 15,700. However, the technology index gained just 0.7% yesterday, as we can see on the daily chart: Apple Remains Volatile After Reaching New Record High Let’s take a look at biggest stock in the S&P 500 index: AAPL. Apple accelerated its uptrend once again and on Wednesday it reached the new record high of $170.30. Apple’s market cap reached almost 2.8 trillion dollars! But on Thursday, the stock was 7.3% below its Wednesday’s high, before bouncing back above the $160 level. So the stock priceremains very volatile and we may see a medium-term topping pattern. Conclusion The S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.3% higher this morning after the mixed monthly jobs data release. We may see a consolidation and some more volatility following the recent declines. There have been no confirmed positive signals so far. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 slightly extended its short-term downtrend yesterday before bouncing from the 4,500 level. A speculative short position is still justified from the risk/reward perspective. We are expecting an over 5% correction. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Weekly Close Out

Weekly Close Out

Luke Suddards Luke Suddards 04.12.2021 17:45
Omicron: In today’s weekly I’ll be dedicating some digital ink for the latest information on the new variant omicron. Ok so what are the major points of importance. New admissions to hospitals in Gauteng increased by 144% last week (hospitalisations lag cases by around 1-3 weeks). So far the early data shows the majority of these hospitalisations are from the unvaccinated (if that trend remains that’s positive). However, a recent study released from South Africa indicates reinfection risk is 3 times higher than previous variants. In terms of the deadliness of this variant, the early data looks good with Australia’s Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly stating that of the 300 cases recorded worldwide all were very mild or had no symptoms at all. However, the sample size is too small so we can’t draw solid conclusions at this stage. The major vaccine makers have offered timelines of two to six weeks for assessing the vaccine escape properties of omicron via in-vitro lab tests. Interestingly, Moderna is less optimistic than Pfizer about expecting current vaccines needing to be tweaked to fend off the omicron variant. Volatility will remain high as the market remains on tenterhooks as new information drips through. Dollar Index (DXY): The greenback is flat on the week, with many quite perplexed by the lack of gains (particularly against the euro) given the hawkish Fed pivot and risk sentiment remaining on edge. The dollar coming in flat is a combination of gains against high-beta cyclical companies offset by losses against traditional safe haven currencies. Just take a look at the charts of USDJPY and AUDUSD. In terms of the euro, I’ll chat more about that below in the EURUSD paragraph. The big domestic news for the dollar this week was Jerome Powell’s hawkish rhetoric. The word transitory is to be retired as he admits the threat of persistently higher inflation has grown. On the QE purchases side of things, he remains open to it being wrapped up earlier than originally expected with a discussion on a faster pace taking place in 2 weeks at their December meeting. He elucidated his thoughts on the employment side of their mandate, stating that a great labour market requires a protracted expansion and in order to achieve this price stability has to occur. I see this as inflation now taking primacy over employment goals, indicating a shift in the Fed’s thinking with regards to inflationary pressures. The hawkish commentary from FOMC members this week such as Daly, Quarles, Barkin and Bostic would certainly suggest this is the case. STIRs are showing rate lift-off for practically June 2022 (96%) and over 2.5 hikes through December 2022. All attention now falls to the Non-Farm Payrolls number out today. The preliminary indicator such as ISM manufacturing index, ADP and jobless claims all pointing towards decent numbers from the jobs report today disappointed as NFP numbers missed expectations by a significant amount. Price moves have been muted as traders may be reluctant to place any fresh positions on and chase with the risk of adverse news over the weekend regarding omicron. Bottom line - traders should expect cross-asset volatility to remain higher over December. Next week we’ll receive November US inflation data, which is expected to remain elevated. DXY has regained the upper trend line of its ascending channel, putting some distance between price and its moving averages. The 21-day EMA continues to provide some dynamic support to price dips. The RSI has held above the key 55 level of support. Targets wise keep an eye out on the 96.5 on the upside and to the downside the 21-day EMA and former support around 95.5. EURUSD: So why did EURUSD strengthen on the market sell-off due to omicron on Friday and has remained fairly defensive throughout this week? It’s certainly not because the euro is a safe-haven currency in times of risk aversion. This price action has more to do with its use as a funding currency. Traders borrow euros to search for higher yield globally which is a decent strategy when risk conditions are favourable, however, when that risk dial flips in other direction we see the typical carry trade unwind, leading to flows back into the euro. Additionally, because expectations for rate hikes with regards to the eurozone are already significantly low, it’s at much less risk of a dovish repricing working favourably in terms of spread differentials with the dollar. Political pressure is rising on the ECB to act, particularly from Germany. A Reuters article out mid-week pointed towards some members wanting to rather hold off declaring their asset purchase intentions at this December meeting due to uncertainty caused by omicron. However, the ECB's Muller stated that he doesn’t think omicron is a reason to shift the scheduled end date for PEPP. Following this line of thought just today Madame Lagarde expressed that she feels certain that PEPP will cease in March as planned, saying markets require clarity in December. On the data front we had better than expected inflation prints from Germany (5.2% YoY) and the eurozone (4.9% YoY). It’s quiet in terms of economic data next week with the ZEW survey out as we lead up to a crucial ECB meeting in two weeks. EURUSD is drifting lower from its 21-day EMA. The RSI has stalled around the 40 level. Looking at the technicals clearly EURUSD is in a downtrend. Rallies in my opinion should be short lived with sellers coming in. Key levels to monitor in both directions are 1.135 (21-day EMA) and on the downside 1.12. GBPUSD: With a vacuum of economic data for the UK, the words of central bankers took centre stage. Bailey didn’t provide much meat at his speech this Wednesday. However, Saunders (leans hawkish) who spoke today has caused a repricing lower in the probability of a 15bps rate hike come December (only an additional 4bps now from around 8bps pre-speech). He expressed the need for potentially taking a patient approach with the uncertainty from omicron. Cable is lower as a result. On the virus front, the UK regulator has given the green light for booster doses to be offered to all adults. Additionally, the government has signed a contract for 114 million vaccine doses from Pfizer and Moderna, including access to modified vaccines if they're needed to tackle omicron and other future variants of concern. On the political front, domestically the Tories held the seat of Old Bexley and Sidcup, however, with a reduced majority. On Brexit, it’s been quiet of late with some optimism around the granting of additional fish licences to French fisherman in Guernsey, Jersey is the more important zone though prone to flare ups in tension. However, temperatures remain high between France and the UK on issues related to immigration. Next week sees UK October GDP data released. EURGBP has been moving higher on the back of dovish commentary (given he’s a hawk) from Saunders as well as benefiting from any souring in risk-sentiment. The 200-day SMA isn’t far aware, which has previously capped price gains. Cable continues to -plumb fresh YTD lows and is now nearing 1.32. The RSI is near to oversold territory but with some room remaining to eke out further losses. Moving averages are all pointing downwards. Targets wise, on the upside the 1.335 and above there former support around 1.34 (21-day EMA too). USDJPY: This pair continues to trade on US 10-year yield moves and now it’s status as a safe-haven currency has kicked back in. Early Friday morning has seen a bid coming in, which could be some pre NFP positioning on expectations of a move higher in the back end of the US yield curve. Put EURJPY on your radar, price is at a key support level around 128. USDJPY is finding support around its 50-day SMA, 113 round number and the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Price is trying to overcome resistance from the 50-day SMA. The former range support is providing some resistance around 113.5. The RSI is trying to get back into its range support around 46. Targets wise on the upside, 114 will be important and on the downside 112.5 (this week's lows). Gold: Gold has slipped below the $1775 support level as the hawkish fed leads to higher short term rates, kryptonite for the shiny yellow metal. Fears over inflation have failed to help gold stay propped up as well as risk-off fears from omicron. Inflation data out from the US next week will be a risk event for gold traders as well as the Fed meeting the following week. Today’s NFP hasn’t ignited much excitement in gold markets. Gold is trying to reclaim the $1775 support level. The 50-day SMA has made a very minor cross above the 200-day SMA. The 21-day EMA has been capping further gains. The RSI is in no man's land around 38. Targets wise, if $1775 is cleared then $1800 opens up (moving averages just below there). On the downside, $1750 comes into view. Oil: Crude fell sharply into a bear market this week as risk-off, Fed tightening, fears over further lockdowns and travel bans from the new omicron variant led to a repricing on the demand side of the equation. OPEC+ the main event for crude traders this week, decided to stick to their scheduled 400k bpd for January, but caveated this with the meeting remaining in “session”, meaning changes to the supply side could be made before their 4 January meeting if omicron causes a further deterioration. This led to yo-yo style price behaviour. Until there is more clarity regarding omicron, I expect oil’s price to remain choppy without a solid price trend. Backwardation spreads have narrowed, indicating a more balanced supply and demand equation. Iranian Nuclear Negotiations began the week positively, but sentiment turned pessimistic towards the end of this week, providing further short-term bullish tailwinds to crude’s price. JPM has some very bullish forecasts with the bank expecting crude to hit $150 by 2023. Oil is having a run at its 200-day SMA. The RSI has moved out of overbought territory and is a fair distance below its 50-day SMA (some mean reversion). Right now price will remain choppy within a range as omicron news flow prevents a trend from forming. Targets wise, on the upside the 200-day SMA and $73.50 dollar mark will be key. On the downside $68 support is important.
Gold's 1780s Are Driving Us Crazy!

Gold's 1780s Are Driving Us Crazy!

Mark Mead Baillie Mark Mead Baillie 06.12.2021 08:31
The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie --- 629th Edition --- Monte-Carlo --- 04 December 2021 (published each Saturday) --- www.deMeadville.com In completing its 48th trading week of 2021, Gold settled yesterday (Friday) at 1784. 'Twas the eighth week this year that Gold has settled in the 1780s (the first occurrence being on 19 February). Indeed, Gold's median weekly settle price year-to-date is 1788. Yet as anybody engaged in the Gold Story knows, Gold first traded in the 1780s a decade ago on 09 August 2011, the U.S "M2" money supply that day at $9.5 trillion; (today 'tis $21.5 trillion). So to reprise that from the "You Cannot Be Wrong Dept.": should anyone ask you "off the cuff" what is the price of Gold, your instantaneous response of "1780" shall (so 'twould seem for the foreseeable future) not only be correct, but enhance your dazzling intellectual image. To reprise as well "The M Word" crowd, clearly their parking place of preference is Gold's 1780s. Of the 233 trading days year to date, 27 of Gold's closures exceeding 1800 have -- within the five ensuing trading days -- found price settle in the 1780s, or lower. "1800? SELL!" Sheesh... Gold's 1780s are driving us crazy! Regardless, Gold -- and moreover Silver -- are doing what markets do when their technicals turn negative: price goes down. Per our Market Magnets page, Gold from 1861 on 18 November found price then pierce down through its Magnet: "SELL!" From our Market Trends page, Gold from 1847 on 19 November found the "Baby Blues" of trend consistency begin to plummet: "SELL!" From our Market Values page, Gold from 1805 on 22 November crossed below its smooth valuation line: "SELL!" More mainstream technical signals have since followed to "SELL!" And recall -- just prior to it all in our anticipating near-term selling -- we nonetheless deemed the 1800s as "safe": "WRONG!" Having thus now driven you crazy, we obviously deem holding and buying Gold as "RIGHT!" especially as the stock market -- be this another false signal or otherwise -- finds the S&P 500 doing its dance of a snake in death throes. To be sure we've seen such before, only to see the Index magically survive, indeed thrive. You veteran readers of The Gold Update may recall some six years ago (on 23 January 2016) our characterizing the S&P as being in such "death throes", the ensuing three weeks then finding the Index fall 5% from a "live" price/earnings ratio of 43x; (today 'tis 47x). "But don't forget it's now time for the Santa Claus Rally, mmb..." Yet another conventional wisdom notion there, Squire, via your appreciated "leading comment". Irrespective of what "everybody says" and expects, Santa Claus doesn't always come to Wall Street. Since 1980, as measured yearly from 01-to-24 December, Santa has skipped gifting the stock market 11 times. "WHAT?" 'Tis true. For those of you scoring at home, the S&P recorded net losses across that festive stint in '80, '81, '83, '86, '96, '97, '00, '02, '08, '15 and '18, the latter being a 409-point (-14.8%) loss. (Advice to the stocking stuffer: buy coal ... nudge-nudge, wink-wink, elbow-elbow). Moreover, have you been monitoring the major market dislocations of late? Talk about the maligning of conventional wisdom! In yesterday's session, the €uro, Swiss Franc, ¥en -- and yes the Dollar Index too -- all closed higher. "WHAT?" 'Tis true. Still, even as there is Dollar demand given the prospect of it paying a positive interest rate, the yield on the U.S. Treasury Bond continues to fall: 'twas 2.177% on 08 October, but is down now to 1.678%. In fact across our BEGOS Markets (Bond, Euro/Swiss, Gold/Silver/Copper, Oil, S&P 500), the price of the Bond is the only component with a positive 21-day linear regression trend. "WHAT?" 'Tis true. And then there's Oil: by our Market Values page, Black Gold settled yesterday 15 points below its smooth valuation line (66.22 vs. 81.51), even as Oil Inventories fell. "WHAT?" 'Tis true, (albeit OPEC is gonna keep a-pumpin'). Still, by that measure, Oil's price is massively, -- indeed deflationarily -- dislocated near-term from value. Too as noted, the Price of the S&P continues to be ridicously dislocated from the support of its Earnings; but if you get your dumbed-down P/E of 28.1x from the media, when 'tis honestly 47.4x, go ahead and say it: "WHAT?" 'Tis true. 'Course, the ongoing and most overwhelming dislocation is the price of Gold vis-à-vis our Scoreboard Dollar-debasement valuation (1784 vs. 4008). Say no more, Igor. A December to remember? Early on, 'tis the season to be dislocated. To which naturally (as subtly stated) we find Gold located in the 1780s. Why expect it to be anywhere else? So spot-on is Gold in the 1780s that per the following graphic of weekly price, the rightmost close is right on the dashed regression trendline. So are the 1780s driving you crazy, too? At least Gold's parabolic trend still is Long, although the aforementioned negative technicals have kept on the lid, (to say nothing of "The M Word" crowd?). Note as well the 79.1x reading of the Gold/Silver, ratio, essentially at a two-month high, the white metal having been terribly on the skids of late: Anything but skidding these last couple of months has been our Economic Barometer, it now having reached its highest oscillative level in better than three years. Whilst nominally last week's 13 incoming metrics were quite mixed, their overall effect net of prior period revisions and consensus expectations was to launch the Baro higher still as we here see: Amongst the improvers were November's Unemployment Rate and Average Workweek, plus both the Manufacturing and Services readings from the Institute for Supply Management, along with October's Construction Spending, Factory Orders and Pending Home Sales. However: November's ADP Employment data, Labor's Non-farm Payrolls and Hourly Earnings, the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index and the Conference Board's read on Consumer Confidence were all weaker. Therein, too, is the red line of the S&P 500, its aforementioned snaky death throes throwing the Index all over the place this past week. The S&P's intra-day runs were as follows: Mon +48, Tue -86, Wed -143, Thu +91, Fri -113. Want some perspective for that? The entire trading range of the S&P 500 for the year 2004 was less than this past Wednesday's session alone. "WHAT?" 'Tis true. 'Course, back in 2004, 'twas a greater percentage range, but at least the average P/E for that year was a "reasonable" (vs. today) 26.4x. Thus again is begged the question: "Has the S&P crashed yet?" Obviously not, but we're feelin' very leery 'bout January. "As goes January..."(although you regular readers know we've demonstrably debunked that conventional notion as well). BUT... As for the Federal Reserve's removing of the punch bowl, Atlanta FedPrez Raphael "Ready to Raise" Bostic again says its time to step up the Taper of Paper Caper, whilst FedGov Randal "Have No" Quarles says 'tis time for The Bank to prepare to raise. And as noted in last week's missive: were it not for the "Oh my! Omicron!" scare, we could well see a FedFunds rate hike in the FOMC's 26 January Policy Statement. So just keep wearing your masque such that everything's great, and in turn let the Fed increase its rate! Here's another positive from the "Good Is Bad Dept.": the StateSide government shan't run out of money this time 'round until 18 February. Low on dough? To Congress you go! Just ask TreaSec Yellen, for she's in the know! Ho-ho-ho... Either way, west of The Pond "inflation" remains the watchword -- or if you prefer the real word -- as the word "transitory" is being transited away. East of The Pond, the EuroZone (just 23 years young) sees its inflation level hitting record high levels; but should it be peaking, 'tis thought any European Central Bank rate rise shan't next year materialize. And lacking any upside mobility of late (duh) are our precious metals, the following two-panel graphic bearing along as butt ugly. On the left we've Gold's daily bars from three months ago-to-date, their cascading "Baby Blues" reinforcing price's downtrend, (although price never really departs the 1780s, right?). On the right similarly is the same story for Sister Silver, who clearly is suffering the ravages of DDS ("Dangerfield Disrespect Syndrome"), by which she's none too happy. For from the precious metals' respective highs of just three weeks back, Gold has dropped as much as -5.8% ... but Silver more than double that at -12.6%! "WHAT?" 'Tis true: Meanwhile, still dwellers in their Profile cellars are Gold (below left) and Silver (below right). Here is the entirety of their trading across the last two weeks, the high volume price apices as labeled. And that is a lot of overhead work to do: So after all of that, are you ready to tune out? You can't be so blamed. Gold's 1780s have got us all crazy! Puts us in mind of that iconic glamour rock hit by Sparks from back in '83 -- supportive of the film by the same name -- "Get Crazy"Tune it in on your radio dial: sure to bring a you a Golden Smile! Cheers! ...m... www.deMeadville.com
Ahead Of The US CPI, Speaking Of Crude Oil And Metals - Saxo Market Call

Market Quick Take - December 6, 2021

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 06.12.2021 09:31
Macro 2021-12-06 08:45 6 minutes to read Summary:  Friday saw global markets weakening again in another violent direction change from the action of the prior day. With futures for the broader US indices up this morning, the damage is somewhat contained, even if nerves are ragged. At the weekend, cryptocurrencies suffered a major setback in what looked like a run on leveraged positions that erased 20 percent or more of the market cap of many coins before a bit more than half of the plunge was erased with a subsequent bounce. What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - despite the US 10-year yield pushed lower on Friday on the string of strong macro numbers, Nasdaq 100 futures are oddly weak in early European trading hours sitting around the 15,700 price level. The 100-day moving average down at 15,400 is the key price level to watch should the weakness in US technology and bubble stocks continue today. We see clear exposure overlap between cryptocurrencies and growth stocks, and with the steep plunge in Bitcoin over the weekend the risk-off might not be over. Stoxx 50 (EU50.I) - Stoxx 50 futures continue to be in a tight trading range sitting just above the 4,100 level this morning with little direction as traders are still digesting the US labour market report and Omicron news which at the margin seems to be improving somewhat, although expectations are still that jet fuel demand will be impacted. The weaker EUR is also short-term helping some of the exporters in Europe and generally leading to positive sentiment in early trading with European equities up 1%. USDJPY and JPY crosses – USDJPY closed the week near 112.50-75 support that was tested multiple times last week, but is once again rebounding overnight, while JPY crosses elsewhere continue to trade heavily, with the likes of AUDJPY, a traditional risk proxy, cementing the reversal back lower and GBPJPY closing the week near a significant zone of support into 148.50-149.00. Safe haven seeking in US treasuries at the long end of the curve are the key coincident indicator driving the JPY higher, with Friday’s weak risk sentiment driving fresh local lows in US long yields, with the 30-year T-bond yield at its lowest since January, below 1.75%. AUDUSD – the AUDUSD slide accelerated Friday in what looks like a capitulation ahead of tonight’s RBA meeting, where the feeling may be that there is a high bar for a surprise, given that the RBA has declared it would like to wait for the February meeting before providing guidance on its ongoing QE. Weak risk sentiment and uninspiring price action in commodities (with the partial exception of the very important iron ore price for the Aussie recently) are weighing and the price action has taken the AUDUSD pair to the pivotal 0.7000 level, an important zone of support and resistance both before and after the pandemic outbreak early last year. Crude oil (OILUKFEB22 & OILUSJAN21) trades higher following its longest stretch of weekly declines since 2018. Today’s rise apart from a general positive risk sentiment in Asia has been supported by Saudi Arabia’s decision to hike their official selling prices (OSP) to Asia and US next month. Thereby signaling confidence demand will be strong enough to absorb last week's OPEC+ production increase at a time when mobility is challenged by the omicron virus. For now, both WTI and Brent continue to find resistance at their 200-day moving averages, currently at $69.50 and $72.88 respectively. Speculators cut bullish oil bets to a one-year low in the week to November 30, potentially setting the market up for a speculative-driven recovery once the technical outlook turns more friendly. US natural gas (NATGASUSJAN22) extended a dramatic collapse on Monday with the price down by 7% to a three-month low at $3.84 per MMBtu, a loss of 31% in just six trading day. Forecasts for warmer weather across the country have reduced the outlook for demand at a time where production is up 6.3% on the year. A far cry from the tight situation witnessed in Europe where the equivalent Dutch TTF one-month benchmark on Friday closed at $29.50 while in Asia the Japan Korea LNG benchmark closed at $34. Gold (XAUUSD) received a small bid on Friday following the mixed US labor market report, but overall, it continues to lack the momentum needed to challenge an area of resistance just above $1790 where both the 50- and 200-day moving averages meet. Focus on Friday’s US CPI data with the gold market struggling to respond to rising inflation as it could speed up rate hike expectations, leading to rising real yields. A full 25 basis point rate hike has now been priced in for July and the short-term direction will likely be determined by the ebb and flow of future rate hike expectations. US Treasuries (IEF, TLT). This week traders’ focus is going to be on the US CPI numbers coming out on Friday, which could put pressure on the Federal Reserve to accelerate tapering as the YoY inflation is expected to rise to 6.7%. Yet, breakeven rates started to fall amid a drop in commodity prices, indicating that the market believes that inflation is near peaking despite we are just entering winter. It is likely we will continue to see the yield curve bear flattening, as the short part for the yield curve is adjusting to the expectations of more aggressive monetary policies, and long-term yields are dropping as economic growth is expected to slow down amid a decrease in monetary stimulus and the omicron variant. Last week, the 2s10s spread suffered the largest drop since 2012 falling to 74bps. The 5s30s spread dropped to 53bps. What is going on? COT on commodities in week to November 30. Hedge funds responded to heightened growth and demand concerns related to the omicron virus, and the potential faster pace of US tapering, by cutting their net long across 24 major commodity futures by 17% to a 15-month low. This the biggest one-week reduction since the first round of Covid-19 panic in February last year helped send the Bloomberg Commodity index down by 7%. The hardest hit was the energy sector with the net long in WTI and Brent crude oil falling to a one year low. Following weeks of strong buying, the agriculture sector also ended up in the firing line with broad selling being led by corn, soybeans, sugar and cocoa. Evergrande plunges 16% to new low for the cycle. The situation among Chinese real estate developers is getting more tense with Evergrande’s chairman being summoned by Guangdong government on Friday as the company is planning a larger restructuring with its offshore creditors. The PBOC has said that they are working with the local government to defuse risk from a restructuring and the regulator CSRC said over the weekend that risks into capital markets are manageable. This week another real estate developer Kaisa Group is facing a deadline on debt which will be critical for the Chinese credit market. US Friday data recap: Services sector on fire, November jobs report stronger than headlines suggest. The November ISM Services report showed the strongest reading in the history of the survey (dating back to 1997) at 69.1, suggesting a red-hot US services sector, with the Business Activity at a record 74.6, while the employment sub-index improved to 56.5, the highest since April. The November employment data, on the other hand, was somewhat confusing. Payrolls only grew 235k vs. >500k expected, but the “household survey” used to calculate the unemployment rate saw a huge growth in estimated employment, taking the overall employment rate down to 4.2% vs 4.5% expected and 4.6% in October. The Average Hourly Earnings figure rose only 0.3% month-on-month and 4.8% year-on-year, lower than the 0.4%/5.0% expected, though the Average Weekly Hours data point ticked up to 34.8 from 34.7, increasing the denominator. Twitter sees exodus of leaders. Part of Jack Dorsey stepping down as CEO at Twitter is a restructuring of the leadership group which has seen two significant technology leaders at engineering and design & research steeping down. The new CEO Agrawal is setting up his own team for Twitter which if done right could make a big positive impact on the product going forward. What are we watching next? Study of omicron variant and its virulence, new covid treatment options. Discovery of omicron cases is rising rapidly, with some anecdotal hopes that the virulence of the new variant is not high, but with significant more data needed for a clearer picture to emerge. Meanwhile, a new covid treatment pill from Merck (molnupiravir) may be available in coming weeks in some countries as it nears full approval. Next week’s earnings: The earnings season is running on fumes now few fewer important earnings left to watch. The Q3 earnings season has shown that US equities remain the strongest part of the market driven by its high growth technology sector. Today’s focus is on MongoDB which is expected to deliver 36% y/y revenue growth in Q3 (ending 31 October). Monday: Sino Pharmaceutical, Acciona Energias, MongoDB, Coupa Software, Gitlab Tuesday: SentinelOne, AutoZone, Ashtead Group Wednesday: Huali Industrial Group, GalaxyCore, Kabel Deutschland, Dollarama, Brown-Forman, UiPath, GameStop, RH, Campbell Soup Thursday: Sekisui House, Hormel Foods, Costco Wholesale, Oracle, Broadcom, Lululemon Athletica, Chewy, Vail Resorts Friday: Carl Zeiss Meditec Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0830 – Sweden Riksbank Meeting Minutes 0900 – Switzerland Weekly Sight Deposits 1130 – UK Bank of England’s Broadbent to speak 0330 – Australia RBA Cash Rate Target   Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Shows Weakness

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Shows Weakness

John Benjamin John Benjamin 06.12.2021 10:44
USDCHF struggles to bounce The US dollar softened after November’s nonfarm payrolls missed the mark. The pair has met stiff selling pressure at 0.9270, a former support that had turned into a resistance. The bullish RSI divergence suggests a slowdown in the sell-off though there is no confirmation yet for a sustainable bounce. 0.9120 is a key demand area on the daily timeframe and a bearish breakout would invalidate the November rebound. Buyers may switch sides as sentiment further deteriorates, exacerbating volatility to the downside. CADJPY breaks higher The Canadian dollar surged after November’s unemployment rate fell to 6%. A bearish MA cross on the daily chart still indicates a pessimistic mood. An oversold RSI on the hourly chart caused a limited bounce as short-term traders took profit. Sellers are eager to fade rebounds with the latest being at 89.20. 87.20 at the base of the October rally would be the next support. A deeper correction may send the loonie to 85.90. The bulls will need to lift said resistance before they could initiate a reversal. UK 100 attempts to rebound The FTSE 100 recouped some losses bolstered by a weaker US jobs report. The index saw buying interest over the psychological level of 7000 which sits in the daily demand zone. The RSI’s double-dip in the oversold area has attracted a ‘buying-the-dips’ crowd in this congestion area. A close above the immediate resistance at 7150 is an encouraging sign of a bullish attempt. 7310 is a major hurdle ahead, its breach could short circuit the correction. 7060 is the closest support in case of weakness in the rebound.
Awaiting US CPI And Speaking Of Disney and Uber. SEK And PLN As Central Banks Moves

COT: Specs exit commodities on Omicron and Fed worries

Ole Hansen Ole Hansen 06.12.2021 12:33
Commodities 2021-12-06 10:50 Summary:  Futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities, forex and financials up until last Tuesday, November 30. A week that encapsulated the markets very nervous reaction to the Omicron virus news as well as Jerome Powell's increased focus on combatting inflation. While global stocks and US long end yields dropped, a 7% correction in the Bloomberg commodity index helped trigger the biggest and most widespread hedge fund exodus since February 2020. Saxo Bank publishes weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial. Link to latest report This summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities, forex and financials up until last Tuesday, November 30. The reporting week encapsulated the markets very nervous reaction to the Omicron virus news as well as Jerome Powell confirming inflation is no longer being transitory. His comments to the Senate banking committee raised expectations for faster tapering with the first full 0.25% rate hike now priced in for July next year. The US yield curve flattened considerably with virus related safe-haven demand driving down the yield on 10-year US treasury notes by 22 basis point. Global stocks slumped with the VIX jumping 8%. Hardest hit, however was the commodity sector after the Bloomberg commodity index slumped by 7%, thereby triggering the biggest and most widespread hedge fund exodus since February 2020. Commodities Hedge funds responded to heightened growth and demand concerns related to the omicron virus, and the potential faster pace of US tapering, by cutting their net long across 24 major commodity futures by 17% to a 15-month low at 1.8 million lots. This the biggest one-week reduction since the first round of Covid-19 panic in February last year was triggered by net selling of all but three livestock contracts. Energy: Hardest hit was the energy sector where renewed demand concerns sent the prices of WTI and Brent down by more than 15%. In response to this, hedge funds accelerated their pace of futures selling with the combined net long slumping by 90k lots to a one-year low at 425k lots. The loss of momentum following the late October peak has driven an eight-week exodus out of oil contracts, culminating last week, and during this time the net length has seen a 35% or 224k lots reduction. Potentially setting the market up for a strong speculative driven recovery once the technical and fundamental outlook turns more friendly.Latest: Crude oil (OILUKFEB22 & OILUSJAN21) trades higher following its longest stretch of weekly declines since 2018. Today’s rise apart from a general positive risk sentiment in Asia has been supported by Saudi Arabia’s decision to hike their official selling prices (OSP) to Asia and US next month. Thereby signaling confidence demand will be strong enough to absorb last week's OPEC+ production increase at a time when mobility is challenged by the omicron virus. For now, both WTI and Brent continue to find resistance at their 200-day moving averages, currently at $69.50 and$72.88 respectively.  Metals: Gold was net sold for a second week as speculators continued to reduce exposure following the failed breakout attempt above $1830. With Fed chair Powell signaling a change in focus from job creation to fighting inflation, sentiment took another knock, thereby driving a 13.7k lots reduction to a four-week low at 105k lots. Industrial metals also suffered with the net long in HG copper slumping by one-third to a three-month low at 13.4k lots. Copper’s rangebound trading behavior since July has sapped hedge funds involvement with the current net length a far cry from the 92k record peak seen this time last year.Latest: Gold (XAUUSD) received a small bid on Friday following mixed US data, but overall, it continues to lack the momentum needed to challenge an area of resistance just above $1790 where both the 50- and 200-day moving averages meet. Focus on Friday’s US CPI data with the gold market struggling to respond to rising inflation as it could speed up rate hike expectations thereby putting upward pressure on real yields which are inverse correlated to gold's performance.  A full 25 basis point rate hike has now been priced in for July and the short-term direction will likely be determined by the ebb and flow of future rate hike expectations. Agriculture: The whole sector with the exception of livestock took a major hit, just one week after funds had increased bullish bets on grains and softs by the most in 15 months. Both sectors suffered setbacks of more than 5% with recent highflyers like wheat and cotton taking big hits. As mentioned, selling was broad and led by corn, soybeans, sugar and cocoa, with the latter together with palladium being the only two contracts where speculators hold an outright short position.This week the grain market will be focusing on weather developments in Australia and its potential impact on the wheat harvest, as well as the monthly World Agriculture Supply & Demand report (WASDE) from the USDA.  Forex In forex, speculators reacted to renewed virus concerns by increasing bullish dollar bets against ten IMM currency futures and the Dollar Index to an 18-month high at $27.9 billion. Speculators were buyers of JPY (18.4k lots or $2 billion equivalent) but sellers of everything else, including euros (6.8k) and the two commodity currencies of AUD (16.9k) and CAD (10.9k). These changes resulting in the aggregate dollar long rising by $2.3 billion. In terms of extended positioning, a euro short at 23k lots was last seen in March 2020, the GBP short at 39k lots was a two-year high while the 60k lots MXN short was the highest since March 2017. What is the Commitments of Traders report? The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class. Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and otherFinancials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and otherForex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators) The reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of the highlighted groups are: They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming
Topping Process Roadmap

Topping Process Roadmap

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 06.12.2021 15:43
S&P 500 bulls missed a good opportunity to take prices higher in spite of the sharp medim-term deterioration essentially since the taper announcement. It‘s the Fed and not Omicron as I told you on Wednesday, but the corona uncertainty is reflected in more downgrades of real economy growth. There are however conflicting indicators that make me think we‘re still midway in the S&P 500 topping process and in for a rough Dec (no Santa Claus rally) at the same time, and these indicators feature still robust manufacturing and APT (hazmat manufacturer) turning noticeably down.Still, it‘s all eyes on the Fed, and its accelerated tapering intentions (to be discussed at their next meeting) as they finally admitted to seeing the light of inflation not being transitory. The ever more compressing yield curve is arguably the biggest watchout and danger to inflation and commodity trades – one that would put question mark to the point of answering in the negative whether we are really midway in the topping process. Another indicator I would prefer turning up, would be the advance-decline line of broader indices such as Russell 3000. And of course, HYG erasing a good deal of its prior sharp decline, which I had been talking often last week – until that happens, we‘re in danger of things turning ugly and fast, and not only for stocks should 4530s decisively give.In spite of decreasing yields, the dollar continues acting on the bullish argument introduced 2 weeks ago. Seeing antidollar plays struggle (part of which is the function of inflation expectations drifting lower on the Fed‘s turn – let‘s see when the central bank breaks something, which is a story for another day), is truly a warning of downside risks having sharply increased since Thanksgiving. Not only for stocks, where we might not be making THE correction‘s low, but also for commodities, cryptos and precious metals. In a series of two tweets yesterday, the warning is in regardless of a smooth Monday ahead.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bears are looking a bit tired here, and the room for an upswing is getting evident. The surge late on Friday concerned both tech and value, thankfully – overall, the market breadth isn‘t though much encouraging.Credit MarketsHYG did successfully defend gained ground, and strength appears very slowly returning – the gains have to continue to sound the all clear, for considerably longer. As said on Friday, the sharpest rallies happen in bear markets, so all eyes on HYG proving us either way.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are looking fairly stable at the moment – not ready to decline, and still taking time to rebound. The accelerated taper idea didn‘t take them to the cleaners – the real fireworks though still have to wait till the Fed gets really close to choking off growth.Crude OilCrude oil could keep the intraday gains, but appears base building here – similarly to natgas, this is a medium-term buying opportunity as prices would inevitably recover.CopperCopper prices reflect the combined Fed and (to a lesser degree) Omicron uncertainty – it‘s casting a verdict about upcoming real economy growth, and the red metal is still looking undecided, and merely gently leaning towards the bulls.Bitcoin and EthereumThe bearish ambush of Bitcoin and Ethereum was reserved for the weekend, and the bleeding hasn‘t stopped so far.SummaryS&P 500 looks to have reached the low, but the jury remains out as to whether that‘s THE low. I highly recommend reading today‘s analysis for it lays out the key metrics to watch in its opening part. The nearest days and weeks will be of crucial importance in determining whether the worst in the stock market and commodities correction is behind us, or whether we still have some more to go.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
S&P 500 Still Above 4,500 – Have Stocks Bottomed?

S&P 500 Still Above 4,500 – Have Stocks Bottomed?

Paul Rejczak Paul Rejczak 06.12.2021 15:31
  The S&P 500 index broke slightly below the 4,500 mark on Friday, but it bounced from that support level again. Is this a bottoming pattern? For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch   The broad stock market index lost 0.84% on Friday following Thursday’s advance of 1.4%. On Friday the index fell the lowest since the October 19 and it went below its early September local high of around 4,546 again. Overall, it lost 5.24% from the Nov. 22 record high of 4,743.83. Stocks fluctuate since last week’s Wednesday, so is this a bottoming pattern? For now, it looks like a flat correction or a consolidation within a downtrend. This morning the broad stock market is expected to open 0.4% higher and we may see some more short-term consolidation following the recent declines. The nearest important support level is still at 4,500. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,580-4,600, marked by the recent local lows. The S&P 500 remains below its short-term downward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq 100 Broke Below the 16,000 Level Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index remained relatively stronger than the broad stock market recently but on Friday it broke below the support level of 16,000 and it was relatively weaker than the S&P 500 index that day. The tech stocks’ gauge fell below the early September local highs, as we can see on the daily chart: Conclusion The S&P 500 index slightly extended its downtrend on Friday and it was 5.24% below the November 22 record high. So it is still just a downward correction and not a new bear market. But we may see some more downside. For now, it looks like a consolidation within a downtrend, as there have been no confirmed positive signals so far. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 slightly extended its short-term downtrend on Friday. A speculative short position is still justified from the risk/reward perspective. We are expecting an over 5% correction. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.