pos

The Swing Overview – Week 25

There was a rather quiet week in which the major world stock indices shook off previous losses and have been slowly rising since Monday. However, this is probably only a temporary correction of the current bearish trend.  The CNB Bank Board met for the last time in its old composition and raised the interest rate to 7%, the highest level since 1999. However, the koruna barely reacted to this increase. The reason is that the main risks are still in place and fear of a recession keeps the markets in a risk-off sentiment that benefits the US dollar.


Macroeconomic data

We had a bit of a quiet week when it comes to macroeconomic data in the US. Industrial production data was reported, which grew by 0.2% month-on-month in May, which is less than the growth seen in April, when production grew by 1.4%. While the growth is slower than expected, it is still growth, which is a positive thing.

 

In terms of labor market data, the number of jobless claims held s

SolScan - Many Of Investors Probably Don't Know This Term

SolScan - Many Of Investors Probably Don't Know This Term

Binance Academy Binance Academy 22.02.2022 11:46
TL;DR SolScan is an alternative Solana blockchain explorer. It gives you access to blockchain data regarding transactions, contracts, accounts, and more. If you regularly use Solana or do any troubleshooting, understanding how to use a blockchain explorer is extremely useful. SolScan also has DeFi and NFT dashboards and an analytics platform to browse. You can also use their API to create customized feeds for yourself. All of these are found in the header of the website.   Introduction Solana is a Proof of Stake (PoS) blockchain where project developers can build DApps, tokens, and smart contracts. Like any other active chain, users need an intuitive way to access the blockchain data. Similar to BscScan and EtherScan, Solana also has a dedicated block explorer called SolScan. Let's run through its most important features and a few basic tutorials.     What is SolScan? SolScan is a blockchain explorer used to search through information on the Solana blockchain. It’s a popular alternative to the official Solana explorer. SolScan turns complex transactional data into something that can be easily read. The block explorer provides access to anything recorded on-chain, including crypto transactions, addresses, smart contracts, blocks, tokens, and more. It’s free to use and doesn’t require an account, but you can create one and log in for enhanced functionality.   Why should I use SolScan? Using a blockchain explorer is essential for anyone transacting with a network. If you aren’t sure where your staked funds have gone, or perhaps a transaction is still pending, you can use SolScan to find out what’s happened. All information on SolScan comes directly from the Solana blockchain, so you can be sure it’s accurate. Using SolScan or any blockchain explorer will help you understand the mechanics of DApps you interact with and the transactions you make. SolScan uses the same format as EtherScan, making it easier to understand. Many users prefer its layout to SolScan’s official explorer. It’s all free to use and contains several useful tools, lists, and analytical graphs. The explorer also contains a set of public APIs that can leverage real-time data from SolScan into custom, third-party applications, and tools.   How to look up transactions and addresses on SolScan? One of SolScan’s most-used features is the search function for transactions and addresses. With the correct hash, you can quickly access a large amount of information. This includes transaction fees, confirmations, timestamps, addresses involved, and more. Transactions 1. Every Solana transaction is recorded on the Solana mainnet with a signature. This is a long string of numbers and letters that looks like this:  5JLcGJQfZjEEuh1bSDqyw2iEfLuFRoYRJY1paoSwrZC8c8zZFW3VqvxsJgjW3bsUjTrpEUDEtvs83PxsuR6hUWqz 2. Copy and paste the signature into SolScan’s search bar and hit enter.     3. You’ll now see all available information about the transaction you searched. This is divided into three categories: [Overview], [SOL Balance Change], and [Token Balance Change].     4. The [Overview] category will have most of the details you need. Let’s go through the list: Signature An alphanumeric string uniquely assigned to each transaction. It’s an identifier similar to Ethereum’s Transaction Hash or TxID. Block The block number your transaction was processed in. These numbers are sequential and indicate your transaction’s placement within the blockchain’s history. Timestamp The timestamp associated with the block in which your transaction was processed. Result The transaction’s confirmation status. Signer The wallet address that initiated the transaction. Fee The fee paid for the transaction. Main Actions An overview of the activities associated with the transaction. Previous Block Hash The alphanumeric hash to identify the previous block. Instruction Details A detailed log of the transaction’s actions. Program Log A detailed log of the instructions/actions results.   5. For further information, the [SOL Balance Change] and [Token Balance Change] tabs provide data on the transaction’s token balance changes for all parties involved. Addresses A similar method can be used to find out more about an individual address. You can then check a detailed history of the address's activities. This can give you an overview of the transactions and smart contract interactions of a particular wallet. 1. Find the Solana address you want to look at. It’s shorter than a signature and looks something like this:  138KHwTqKNWGLoo8fK5i8UxYtwoC5tC8o7M9rY1CDEjT 2. Copy and paste the address into SolScan’s search bar and hit Enter.     3. You’ll now see all available information about the account you searched for. The [Overview] section shows current account balances, while the bottom tabs deal mainly with transaction history.     How to find tokens on SolScan? Tokens are easily verifiable on SolScan and you can get a full display of their details. You just need to: 1. Copy and paste the token address into SolScan’s search bar and hit enter. In this example, we’ve used a wrapped version of Bitcoin (BTC), but you can also use a wrapped version of Ethereum (ETH) or any other SPL-token in the Solana network. The token address looks like this:  9n4nbM75f5Ui33ZbPYXn59EwSgE8CGsHtAeTH5YFeJ9E 2. If you entered the address correctly, you would see the following information.     Tokens Fully Diluted Market Cap This is the max total supply multiplied by the token’s current price. It’s called diluted because it also includes locked tokens. Max Total Supply The total number of tokens that will ever exist for a particular cryptocurrency, whether previously mined or issued in the future. Holders The number of addresses holding the token. Social Channels Links to the token’s official social media channels. Token name The name and ticker of the token in the format: [token name (TICKER)]. Token address Unique alphanumeric address assigned as an identifier for each token. Owner Program A class type and unique ID indicating the specific owner program responsible for reading and writing data to the blockchain. Authority The account (usually multi-signature) that has authority to validate transactions within the network. Decimals How divisible a single token is (the number of decimals allowed). Tags Descriptive tags used to indicate the nature of the token. It can be used to find similarly categorized tokens. Transactions A complete and sequentially ordered list of all token transactions. Holders A full list of all accounts holding the token ordered by total quantity held and percentage share. Analysis Graphs on token distribution and holders. Markets A list of all known markets and pairs supporting the token.   How do I find Solana’s active accounts? 1. You can find out the number of active accounts and other key blockchain metrics by clicking [Analytics].     2. The SolScan analytics page has a wide range of information about network nodes, transactions per second (TPS), new tokens, new NFTs, and more. Under the [Accounts] header, you can find the number of daily active wallets.     3. Note that you can select different periods at the top right corner.     How to access DeFi dashboards on SolScan 1. Some of the largest DEXs in the Solana ecosystem have dashboards built into the Solana block explorer. You can find them quickly under the [Defi] tab.     2. Let’s take a look at Orca. This dashboard shows basic information on Total Value Locked (TVL), volume, and active trading pairs available in their liquidity pools.     How to access the NFT dashboard on SolScan 1. SolScan makes it easy to see new NFTs, trades, and collections with the NFT dashboard. You can find the section in the website header.     2. The NFT dashboard will let you search through any NFT available on Solana. The [Collections] tab will give you a list of NFT projects based on volume. The [Trades] tab will show the most recent sales, while the [New NFTs] will list the most recent mints.       Closing thoughts Whether you want to inspect your latest Metaverse NFTs, investigate a node, or check the wallets of a new startup, you will need a Solana block explorer. This tool is an integral part of any blockchain network’s ecosystem. SolScan has become one of the most used within the Solana community, so understanding its layout and UI can certainly help.
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 15/2/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 15/2/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 22.02.2022 11:48
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 15/2/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 1,621 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in long positions by 1,979 contracts and an increase in short positions by 358 contracts. Growth in total net speculator positions occurred last week in the euro, the British pound and the New Zealand dollar. Decrease in total net positions occurred in the Australian dollar, the Japanese yen, the Canadian dollar, and the Swiss franc. In the event of a Russian invasion to Ukraine, markets would move into risk-off sentiment. This means that investors would sell risk assets, which include stock indices, and shift their resources into assets that are considered as safe havens in such situations, which include US government bonds and gold. In currency terms, this means that the US dollar, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc in particular could then appreciate in such a situation. Commodity currencies (especially AUD, NZD) might weaken. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators Date USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Feb 15, 2022 35386 47581 2237 -86694 -9333 -66162 12170 -9715 Feb 08, 2022 33765 38842 -8545 -85741 -10366 -59148 14886 -9399 Feb 01, 2022 34571 29716 -23605 -79829 -11698 -60640 18264 -8239 Jan 25, 2022 36861 31560 -7763 -83273 -10773 -68273 12317 -8796 Jan 18, 2022 36434 24584 -247 -88454 -8331 -80879 7492 -10810 Jan 11, 2022 37892 6005 -29166 -91486 -8604 -87525 -7376 -7660 Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the end of this report. Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 15, 2022 702047 217899 170318 47581 1949 -1074 -9813 8739 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 700098 218973 180131 38842 14667 5410 -3716 9126 Bullish Feb 01, 2022 685431 213563 183847 29716 2479 155 1999 -1844 Weak bullish Jan 25, 2022 682952 213408 181848 31560 -8930 1507 -5469 6976 Bullish Jan 18, 2022 691882 211901 187317 24584 9589 7540 -11039 18579 Bullish Jan 11, 2022 682293 204361 198356 6005 4075 5288 -2271 7559 Bullish         Total change 23829 18826 -30309 49135     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached 47,581 contracts last week, up by 8,739 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 1,074 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 9,813 contracts. Total net speculators positions have increased by 49,135 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators closing 30,309 short positions and adding 18,826 long positions. This data suggests continued bullish sentiment for the euro. However, the rising open interest, which increased by 1,949 contracts in the last week, shows the opposite, as the euro fell down last week and this decline is supported by the rising number of open interest contracts. So more bearish traders were in the market. So we have conflicting information here. The euro weakened slightly last week on fears of an escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Long-term resistance: 1.1461 – 1.15 Support: 1.1280 - 1.1300. Next support is near 1.1220 - 1.1240. A strong support is in 1.1120-1.1140. The British Pound   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 15, 2022 195302 50151 47914 2237 -2646 5442 -5340 10782 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 197948 44709 53254 -8545 13941 15112 52 15060 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 184007 29597 53202 -23605 1967 -7069 8773 -15842 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 182040 36666 44429 -7763 -1194 -3094 4422 -7516 Bearish Jan 18, 2022 183234 39760 40007 -247 -17259 9254 -19665 28919 Weak bearish Jan 11, 2022 200493 30506 59672 -29166 486 4526 -5479 10005 Weak bearish         Total change -4705 24171 -17237 41408     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached 2,237 contracts last week, up by 10,782 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions of 5,442 contracts and a decrease in short positions of 5,340 contracts. Total net positions have increased by 41,408 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators exiting 17,237 short positions and adding 24,171 long positions. This data suggests bullish sentiment for the pound. Open interest, which fell by 2,646 contracts last week, is indicating that the bullish price action that occurred in the pound last week was not supported by volume and therefore it is weak. Risk off sentiment in US equities could have a negative effect on the Pound as well as the Euro, which could then send the Pound towards support which is at 1.3380. Long-term resistance: 1.3620-1.3640. Next resistance is near 1.3680 – 1.3750. Support: 1.3490 – 1.3520. A next support is near 1.3320 – 1.3380 and then mainly in the zone near 1.3200. The Australian dollar   Date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 15, 2022 192578 11692 98386 -86694 -3825 -5631 -4678 -953 Bearish Feb 08, 2022 196403 17323 103064 -85741 -510 -1512 4400 -5912 Bearish Feb 01, 2022 196913 18835 98664 -79829 6893 3714 270 3444 Weak bearish Jan 25, 2022 190020 15121 98394 -83273 8884 6070 889 5181 Weak bearish Jan 18, 2022 181136 9051 97505 -88454 -4317 -3332 -6364 3032 Weak bearish Jan 11, 2022 185453 12383 103869 -91486 5346 -249 1871 -2120 Bearish         Total change 12471 -940 -3612 2672     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1 Total net speculator positions last week reached -86,694 contracts, down 953 contracts from the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions of 5,631 contracts and a decrease in short positions of 4,678 contracts. This data suggests continued bearish sentiment on the Australian dollar, which is confirmed by the downtrend. Total net positions have increased by 2,672 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators exit of 3,612 short contracts while exiting 940 long contracts at the same time. However, last week saw a decrease in open interest of 3,825 contracts. This means that the upward price action that occurred last week was weak in terms of volume because new money did not flow into the market. The Australian dollar is very sensitive to the international geopolitical situation. If the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalates, we can expect it to weaken especially on the AUDUSD pair and also the AUDJPY. Long-term resistance: 0.7200-0.7250 and especially near 0.7270-0.7310. Long-term support: 0.7085-0.7120. A strong support is near 0.6960 – 0.6990. The New Zealand dollar   Date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions Change Open Interest Change Long Change Short Change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 15, 2022 64105 24923 34256 -9333 9228 7755 6722 1033 Weak bearish Feb 08, 2022 54877 17168 27534 -10366 -3590 -2037 -3369 1332 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 58467 19205 30903 -11698 5151 3257 4182 -925 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 53316 15948 26721 -10773 8589 4336 6778 -2442 Bearish Jan 18, 2022 44727 11612 19943 -8331 2661 652 379 273 Weak bearish Jan 11, 2022 42066 10960 19564 -8604 1764 1543 1302 241 Weak bearish         Celková změna 23803 15506 15994 -488     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached a negative value last week - 9,333 contracts, having increased by 1,033 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 7,755 contracts and an increase in short positions by 6,722 contracts. This data suggests that the bearish sentiment for the New Zealand Dollar continues, but has started to weaken over the past week. Total net positions have declined by 488 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators adding 15,994 short positions and adding 15,506 long positions. Open interest rose significantly last week, increasing by 9,228 contracts. The rise in the NZDUSD price action that occurred last week is therefore supported by volume and therefore the move was strong. The reason for the NZD strengthening last week is that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to raise interest rates to 1% on Feb 23, 2022. However, if the conflict in Ukraine escalates further, the NZDUSD could more likely weaken. The reason for the NZDUSD's decline from a technical analysis perspective could also be that the NZDUSD price has reached horizontal resistance and also the upper downtrend line from the daily chart. Long-term resistance: 0.6700 – 0.6740 and then 0.6850 – 0.6890. Long-term support: 0.6590-0.6600 and the next support is at 0.6500 – 0.6530. Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD underpinned above $1900 as Russia/Ukraine crisis escalates

Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD underpinned above $1900 as Russia/Ukraine crisis escalates

FXStreet News FXStreet News 22.02.2022 15:58
After hitting fresh multi-month highs at $1914, spot gold is consolidating above $1900 as the Russia/Ukraine crisis escalates.As traders worry about the rising risk of a full-scale Russian military incursion into Ukraine, gold will likely remain supported.As the Russia/Ukraine crisis continues to escalate, most recently with Russia recognising the independence of and moving troops into two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine, prompting NATO nations to announce/prepare new sanctions on Russia, gold has moved back above $1900. Spot prices (XAU/USD) hit fresh multi-month highs at $1914 on Tuesday and, though pulling back from these highs printed during Asia pacific trade as dip-buying facilitating an intra-day rebound in global equities markets, has remained above the key $1900 level.With market participants nervous that Russia/pro-Russia separatists in Eastern Ukraine could initiate further hostilities against Ukraine, thus further escalating the risk of an all-out Ukraine/Russia conflict, gold is likely to remain well underpinned this week. Brent oil spiked to close to $100 per barrel on Tuesday and EU natural gas prices were up sharply as Germany pledged not to approve the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that would bring gas directly to Germany from Russia. The upside risks posed to global inflation from any continued spike in energy prices as a result of further Russia/Ukraine crisis escalation is likely boosting demand for gold as an inflation hedge.Recent Fed speak and US data releases have not had much of an impact on gold in recent days as price action takes its cue from geopolitics. Hawkish commentary from Fed’s Michelle Bowman on Monday, who essentially said she was still undecided as the whether the Fed should hike rates by 25 or 50bps in March, was roundly shrugged off. That suggests that other Fed speak this week is also likely to be ignored, or, at least, play second fiddle, with this also likely the case for Friday’s January US Core PCE inflation data. Ahead of that, traders should keep an eye on upcoming US PMI and CB Consumer Confidence surveys, both the flash readings for February.
Credit Markets Trades Really Low, Oil Price Reaches High Levels At The Same Time

Credit Markets Trades Really Low, Oil Price Reaches High Levels At The Same Time

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 22.02.2022 15:36
S&P 500 is waking up to fresh European news, and holds up well. There is no panic upswing in gold and silver, but crude oil and natural gas are up the most. As the U.S. markets are to open following yesterday‘s Washington‘s Birthday holiday, let‘s bring up the key details of yesterday‘s analysis: (…) S&P 500 opening upswing gave way to more selling, but credit markets didn‘t lead to the downside on a daily basis. This tells me the plunge would likely be challenged shortly. As in facing a reversal attempt – it‘s that junk bonds for all the recent (and still to come) deterioration, will probably rebound a little next. Value already retraced part of Friday‘s decline – it‘s just tech that didn‘t yet react to the Treasuries reprieve. Good to have taken short profits off the table. The table is set for S&P 500 to rise, and for bonds to rally somewhat. And that wouldn‘t be the result of war tensions lifting up Treasuries, gold and oil. Red hot inflation, decelerating growth and compressing yield curve are a challenging environment, and the odds of a 50bp Mar rate hike are overwhelming, but the Fed‘s balance sheet is still rising – now within spitting distance of $9T. Sure they will take on inflation, but I continue to think that by autumn they would be forced to reverse course, and start easing. Fresh stimulus after markets protest during 1H 2022? Would be helpful for the midterms... The consumer isn‘t in a great shape as the confidence data reveal – and that‘s also reflected in the direction of discretionaries vs. staples. Inflation is pinching, and the pressure on the Fed to act, is on – its credibility is being challenged. Food inflation is high, and seeing food at home prices rising this much, is as surefire marker of coming recession as yield curve inversion is. And yield differentials are flattening around the world – quite a few central banks are more ahead in the tightening path than the Fed. Economy slowing down, stock market correction far from over (yes, in spite of the coming rebound, I‘m looking for lower lows still), and precious metals upleg underway – yes, underway, and especially our gold profits can keep rising - as I wrote on Friday: (…) With gold at $1,900 again and silver approaching $24, copper‘s fate is also brightening – the miners‘ continued outperformance is a very good sign. With crude oil taking a breather, the inflationary pressures aren‘t at least increasing, but don‘t look for the Bullard or other statements to defeat inflation – I‘m standing by the 4-5% official rate CPI data for 2022 (discussed in yesterday‘s summary). CPI might turn out even a full percentage point higher – depends upon the hedonics and substitution massaging. What a long quote – let‘s update it with the premarket action. S&P 500 is still waiting with its potential upsing, dollar has gone nowhere really, and precious metals look like having a bright day today. The crude oil upswing shows that markets don‘t like the geopolitical news, and are likely to behave in a risk-off way of late (Treasuries, gold and oil up benefiting most). The internals of today‘s stock market action would be telling – I recently got an interesting question touching also upon rates and real estate: Q: I read your most recent newsletter with great interest: 1. You think the Fed would start to ease this fall? In your opinion, how long would that last?  Midterm would be done soon there after so would it be a quick few months then revert back to higher rates? 2. I’m asking question #1 as it would impact real estate. 3. You anticipate a “temporary” rise in the S&P this week? Are you thinking just a few days? I noticed 10 yr is going down. A: Thank you for asking. I'll take 1 & 2 in one go - I think they would change course latest autumn. So, now hawkish and raising, then turning to easing before midterms. Let's see first the damage this tightening does, and the degree to which they then turn dovish. As regards real estate, it's slowing down, homebuilders, XLRE... Headwinds would be stiffening, rates are eating into mortgages, but those ZIP codes where immigration into is high, would do best - but the overall, total real estate isn't an appealing proposition. When markets open, there is likely to be a little SPX rally off oversold readings. Sure, they can get more oversold - that's the way it goes during bearish episodes, which is why I'm not long. The trend for now is to the downside, so I would keep predominantly looking and taking opportunities to short. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 caught a little buying interest going into the long weekend – better days though look to be coming. Not a monstrous rally, but still an upswing. Credit Markets HYG is indeed basing, and will help stocks move higher next. LQD and TLT are already rising, and there is still somewhat more to come. Bonds have simply deteriorated too fast in 2022, and need a breather. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals fireworks continue – we‘re getting started, and $1,920 is the next stop. Kiss of life from the bond market reprieve comes next, on top of all the other factors I‘ve talked about recently. Crude Oil Crude oil is fairly well bid, but the war jitters are helping it out (as in staving off a bit deeper correction). As both oil and base metals are rising, inflation isn‘t likely to slow down (perhaps later in summer?) - black gold‘s uptrend isn‘t over really. Copper Copper keeps going sideways in a volatile fashion, and can be counted on to break higher – inflationary pressures aren‘t abating, and outweigh the slowing economy. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos stopped breaking down today, and the price action smacks of joining in the modest risk-on upswing, as unbelievable as it sounds. Summary Yesterday‘s summary is valid also today – S&P 500 appears on the verge of trying to swing higher, and credit markets would be leading the charge as tech finally turns. Value had trouble declining some more on Friday already. Stock market upswing though wouldn‘t throw the precious metals bulls off balance – not too many weeks have passed since I was at the turn of the year predicting that gold (and silver with miners implied) would be the bullish surprise of 2022 – and for all the talk and preemtive tightening in the credit markets, we haven‘t yet seen the Fed move. Anyway, such a lag in moving the Fed funds rate higher, is normal these decades – we are a long way from the early 1980s when the delay between say 2-year Treasury and Fed funds rate move was some 2 months. Crude oil is likewise going to keep rising, and the same goes naturally for copper following in the footsteps. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Is It Like XAUUSD Is Supported By Everything? How Long Will The Strengthening Last?

Is It Like XAUUSD Is Supported By Everything? How Long Will The Strengthening Last?

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 22.02.2022 16:01
  The current military tensions and the Fed’s sluggishness favor gold bulls, but not all events are positive for the yellow metal. What should we be aware of? It may be quiet on the Western Front, but quite the opposite on the Eastern Front. Russia has accumulated well over 100,000 soldiers on the border with Ukraine and makes provocations practically every day, striving for war more and more clearly. Last week, shelling was reported on Ukraine’s front line and Russia carried out several false flag operations. According to Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, “the evidence on the ground is that Russia is moving toward an imminent invasion.” Meanwhile, President Biden said: “We have reason to believe they are engaged in a false flag operation to have an excuse to go in. Every indication we have is they're prepared to go into Ukraine and attack Ukraine.” Of course, what politicians say should always be taken with a pinch of salt, but it seems that the situation has gotten serious and the risk of Russian invasion has increased over recent days.   Implications for Gold What does the intensifying conflict between Russia and Ukraine imply for the gold market? Well, the last week was definitely bullish for the yellow metal. As the chart below shows, the price of gold (London P.M. Fix) rallied over the past few days from $1,849 to $,1894, the highest level since June 2021; And he gold futures have even jumped above $1,900 for a while! Part of that upward move was certainly driven by geopolitical risks related to the assumed conflict between Russia and Ukraine. This is because gold is a safe-haven asset in which investors tend to park their money in times of distress. It’s worth remembering that not all geopolitical events are positive for gold, and when they are, their impact is often short-lived. Hence, if Russia invades Ukraine, the yellow metal should gain further, but if uncertainty eases, gold prices may correct somewhat. To be clear, the timing of the current military tensions is favorable for gold bulls. First of all, we live in an environment of already high inflation. Wars tend to intensify price pressure as governments print more fiat money to finance the war effort and reorient their economies from producing consumer goods toward military stuff. Not to mention the possible impact of the conflict on oil prices, which would contribute to rising energy costs and CPI inflation. According to Morgan Stanley’s analysts, further increases in energy prices could sink several economies into an outright recession. Second, the pace of economic growth is slowing down. The Fed has been waiting so long to tighten its monetary policy that it will start hiking interest rates in a weakening economic environment, adding to the problems. There is a growing risk aversion right now, with equities and cryptocurrencies being sold off. Such an environment is supportive of gold prices. Third, the current US administration has become more engaged around the world than the previous one. My point is that the current conflict is not merely between Russia and Ukraine, but also between Russia and the United States. This is one of the reasons why gold has been reacting recently to the geopolitical news. However, a Russian invasion of Ukraine wouldn’t pose a threat to America, and the US won’t directly engage in military operations on Ukrainian land, so the rally in gold could still be short-lived. If history is any guide, geopolitical events usually trigger only temporary reactions in the precious metals markets, especially if they don’t threaten the United States and its economy directly. This is because all tensions eventually ease, and after a storm comes calm. Hence, although the media would focus on the conflict, don’t get scared and – when investing in the long run – remember gold fundamentals. Some of them are favorable, but we shouldn’t forget about the Fed’s tightening cycle and the possibility that disinflation will start soon, which could raise the real interest rates, creating downward pressure on gold prices. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Swaps: FX Swap vs. Cross-Currency Swaps

Swaps: FX Swap vs. Cross-Currency Swaps

Purple Trading Purple Trading 23.02.2022 11:09
~/getmedia/fbdf02b1-4fa2-42af-bbad-7f789e463bc0/P-swapy.png Swaps: FX Swap vs. Cross-Currency Swaps Swaps are derivative contracts serving for the purpose of exchanging financial instruments. through which two parties exchange financial instruments. Such instruments can comprise of different values, however, the mostly popular is the exchange of cash when both parties agree on certain notional principal. In practice, banks do not change the principal. Each of the cash flows has a so-called swap leg. Often, one leg comprises of a fixed cash flows, while the other leg is somehow variable, therefore it’s moving according to some interest rate, fx rate or any other indices, etc. Interest rate swaps (IRS) This is the most frequently used swap type on the interbank market. It’s not a business of any retail traders, nor they can’t be found on any exchanges. This is a derivative for an over-the-counter market (OTC), where banks (or any other financial institutions) exchange currencies.   Calculation of an IRS: Bank A has issued a 5-yr bond with a variable annual interest rate according to the LIBOR rate + 1.3% (130 basis points). Bank A makes an agreement with the Bank B, expressing its will to pay LIBOR + 1.3% for $1 million for 5 years to the Bank A. In exchange, Bank A pays the fixed annual rate of 5% on a notional value of $1 million for the same 5 years. Let’s imagine the LIBOR stays at 1.5%. In the event the rate rises over the next 5 years, Bank A benefits from such deal. In the event LIBOR rises 0.75% p.a., Bank A pays $215,000 to bond holders Year 2 = 1.5% + 0.75% = 2.25% Year 3 = 2.25% + 0.75% = 3.0% Year 4 = 3.0% + 0.75% = 3.75% Year 5 = 3.75% + 0.75% = 4.5% $215,000 = $1,000,000 x [(5 x 0.013) + 0.015 + 0.0225 + 0.03 + 0.0375 + 0.045] This means that the Bank A pays $75,000 more to its bond holders as if the rate stayed the same (so it would pay only $140,000 if LIBOR had remained unchanged at 1.5%: 140 000 $ = 1 000 000 $ x 5 x (0,013 + 0,015) Bank A pays Bank B $250,000: 250 000 $ = 1 000 000 $ x 5 x 0,05 Bank A receives $215,000 from the Bank B. Therefore, its net loss on the swap comes to $250,000 - $215,000 = $35,000. FX swaps An FX swap is another kind of agreement between two banks, exchanging one currency for another (so the EU-based Bank A lends EUR to the Bank B, while the U.S.-based Bank B lends U.S. dollars to the Bank A). In this case, the collateral for meeting its obligation is the amount to be repaid by one party to another. Such repayment depends on the exchange rate, so the development is clear since the beginning. According to the most frequent situation for FX swaps, the picture from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) depicts the exchange of EUR for USD through swap. The Bank A borrows USD (X·S USD) from the Bank B while lending the EUR (X EUR) to the Bank B (S means the FX spot rate). After the expiration (if not prolonged), the Bank A is obliged to return USD (X·F USD) to the Bank B, while the Bank B must return EUR (X EUR) to the Bank A (F means the FX forward rate since the start).   FX swaps are popular on the interbank market as they allow the banks to reach to foreign currencies easily (could apply to exporting/importing companies as well). Thanks to its popularity on the OTC market, their maturities have been often prolonged for more than 1 year, however the banks are always looking for further possibilities and derivatives as they need foreign cash flows as well. Good example is the swaption (option giving the right to the user to open a swap at certain time for the underlying asset). Fig. 1: System of FX swaps – source: BIS Cross-Currency Swaps Cross-currency swaps are used less frequently, however, they play an important role on the interbank OTC market. Here, the banks borrow on currency, while lending another currency at the same time to the bank they borrowed from. The system is little upgraded from the FX swaps, albeit many traders tend to mix these two swap types. Here, the EU-based Bank A borrows USD (X·S USD) from the Bank B, while providing it EUR (X EUR) as in case of FX swaps. Nevertheless, here the Bank A receives EUR 3M Libor+ α from the Bank B, while the Bank A pays USD 3M Libor to the Bank B every quarter (3M or Q). The α is the price of the basis swap, agreed between the parties at the beginning. After the expiry date, the Bank A is obliged to return USD (X·S USD) to the Bank B, where S is the spot rate at the conclusion of this agreement. At the same time, the Bank B must return EUR (X EUR) to the Bank A. Cross-currency swaps serve for the same purpose on the interbank market, however, the banks/institutions tend to take the rates (their change) into account, mainly during the volatile periods of time. Here, due to their nature or rate change taken into account, the maturity is much longer as in case of the FX swaps as the change of rates comes much slower as in case of the exchange rate. They are often concluded from 1 to 30 years in maturity. Fig. 2: System of cross-currency swaps – source: BIS
How the Russia-Ukraine crisis has reflected on the financial market so far

How the Russia-Ukraine crisis has reflected on the financial market so far

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 23.02.2022 12:11
Over the last several weeks, traders would have heard of and watched the unfolding Ukraine crisis. Russia built up a mass of troops and military hardware on the border, which started sending shockwaves through the markets that an invasion and new European conflict could be developing. This is not the first time we have seen Russian aggression towards Ukraine. In 2014 we all watched as Russia annexed Crimea after Moscow said it supported the liberty and backing the people’s free will as they wanted to rejoin Russia and break away from Ukraine. During this round, the situation felt and looked different due to the sheer build-up of the Russian military. Ukraine requesting to join NATO and the possibility of U.S./NАТО bases being built in Ukraine look like a flashpoint for the Russian side. Despite talks and negotiations, Russia continued to amass military close to the border, feeding invasion fears. Reasons continued to put out by the Kremlin, scheduled military exercises with Belarus. These failed to settle nerves as Western leaders continued to put forward prosed crippling sanctions that would be imposed if Russia invaded. The worst seemed possible late last week, and reports emerged of explosions and fighting in the two eastern parts of Ukraine. Russian tank numbers also increased, and we all thought it was just a matter of when we would see a Russian invasion. Biden offered Putin a summit only if he hadn’t invaded at the final hour. This is off the table now that Russia has once again pulled off another Crimea to a degree. Yesterday we heard that the two Eastern areas of Ukraine had voiced their right to become independent. The Kremlin supported them immediately and advised it had crossed the border to support a peaceful transition with a peacekeeping mission. In other words, a proxy invasion. President Biden has called this an invasion of Ukraine and announced sweeping sanctions on the Russian bank VEB and its military bank and cuts them out of any USD transactions. Individual sanctions, Biden said the adult children and members of Putin’s inner circle “share the corrupt gains of the Kremlin’s policies, and so they ought to share in the pain as well.” The sanctions on Russia’s sovereign debt expand upon Biden’s existing restrictions set in 2021 and prohibit American banks from trading shares in and or lending to several significant Russian sovereign debt funds. Prime Minister Johnson also made good on his threat of sanctions. The first tranche of sanctions would target Rossiya, IS Bank, General Bank, Promsvyazbank and the Black Sea Bank. The new sanctions also include three “very high net worth” individuals: Gennady Timchenko, Boris Rotenberg and Igor Rotenberg. Germany has halted approval of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline due to Russia’s actions, and the EU has agreed on sanctions to hurt Russia. The crisis had a significant impact on the markets. As you would expect, we have seen plenty of movement away from risk markets, but it hasn’t been totally black and white. Energy, oil has been driven higher during the crisis, and we’ve watched USOUSD (WTI) jump by 28% in the last three months. Price trading at $96 this week. Spot gas surged this week, hitting 6.70 but has pulled back to 4.31. Russia is a major energy supplier to Europe. This is a major card they hold. Traders will be watching oil and gas as any new aggression could cause oil to spike. We could even see $100 or higher reached again. The markets are a funny beast, and if they see the situation as calm, don’t be surprised if we continue to see price pullback. Sky-high oil prices could impact the FED. Crude prices can drive up inflation and slow down the global economy. A surge in oil could cause the Fed to rethink its pace of hiking due to growth concerns. FX, the USD and JPY have seen phases of demand during the crisis, but they have been far from dominant. Looking at this month’s trade so far, we can see that mainly the EUR has been most affected with falls to the two safe-havens. The GBP has been flat, and the AUD has been stronger. The AUD rallied yesterday as the situation developed and so far looks to be ignoring the situation. If we had seen an all-out invasion and this could still be a possibility, we would expect a traditional reaction on FX with the USD and JPY rallying on safe-haven demand. Gold has seen strong demand during the crisis. Traders jumping back into the metal as it moves back to a safe haven. This is not strange. Gold has always had multiple functions in the market, and in times of war or crisis, traders can look to it over fiat. Looking at the current month on the monthly chart, we can see this clearly in action as price has jumped by over 5%. The weekly shows a triangle breakout, but we will need to watch ongoing developments to see if buyer momentum remains. The Ukrainian crisis has hit stock indexes that could have been seen as overvalued. The Dax, in particular, has been hit hard. U.S. and Asian indexes haven’t been spared with heavy selling over the last two weeks. Markets fought back yesterday after the SP500 touched correction territory, and as mentioned above, traders will be focusing on the escalation of the crisis. If the situation intensifies, we would be looking for further lows, and if things continue to calm down, we could see counter-rallies and ranges set up. Cryptocurrencies have traded mainly lower during the crisis. Clearly, we can see at this point that they’re viewed as risk assets and are acting accordingly. It hasn’t been all one-way traffic, Kyber has added 38% YTD and so far has resisted the falls we have seen on the top 10 and top 25 indexes. Coins have been firmer since Tuesday’s updates, following other risk markets higher. Polkadot, Cardando were two top ten coins that hit new lows for 2022 before value buying returned this week. Again, we see the fortunes of most coins tied to risk demand. If things escalate, we will be looking for further declines across the top 10 and 25. The post How the Russia-Ukraine crisis has reflected on the financial market so far appeared first on Eightcap.
Warsaw Chamber of Tax Administration is moving the headquarters of the Customs Department VI and two organizational units of the Masovian Customs and Tax Office to Żerań, to the OKAM investment

Warsaw Chamber of Tax Administration is moving the headquarters of the Customs Department VI and two organizational units of the Masovian Customs and Tax Office to Żerań, to the OKAM investment

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 23.02.2022 15:53
PRESS RELEASE Warsaw, 23.02.2022Warsaw Chamber of Tax Administration has leased over 640 sq m. of office space with a 2000 sq m. square located next to the office building for its subordinate unit in the OKAM investment in Warsaw district of Żerań.The Chamber was looking for a location that would allow for the lease of both office space and a suitable area for customs clearance for the Customs Department VI in Warsaw, currently located in the Targówek district.These conditions were met by the warehouse, production and office complex located on the site of the former car factory at Jagiellońska Street in Warsaw.- The Chamber planned to relocate to a new office. However, the property also had to guarantee efficient logistics related to the customs clearance of goods. The infrastructure of the mixed-use complex in Żerań, its unique character on the scale of the entire Warsaw agglomeration, made it possible to fully meet the tenant's requirements. The profile of the investment allowed for a full consolidation and concentration the activities of the institution and its administration in one place - informs Piotr Szymoński, Director Office Agency at Walter Herz, the company which represented the landlord during the transaction.The new headquarters of the Customs Department VI in Warsaw and two organizational units of MCTO, they plan to move into next month, is located in a four-storey building, with a total of over 3100 sq m. of space.- Warsaw market offers many attractive spaces, which is why we feel all the more distinguished by the choice of our investment in Żerań by the Warsaw Chamber of Tax Administration. We hope that the office space leased by the Chamber along with the adjacent square will meet all of the current and future expectations of the organization. Our project in Żerań will also actively develop with our tenants and their needs in mind – says Arie Koren, CEO of OKAM City.OKAM investment in Żerań provides both office, retail and commercial space, as well as warehouse space, the height of which exceeds even 20 meters. It also has paved areas of high load capacity, intended for exhibition squares and parking lots.Most of the lease space in the complex is characterized by a great variety in terms of the offered parameters. - This makes the location a great choice for customers looking for space with different functions and non-standard dimensions in one investment - says Piotr Szymoński. The location provides direct access to the S8 route. The center of Warsaw can be reached within 20 minutes from the OKAM investment. Bus and tram stops as well as bicycle paths are located 250 m from the entrance to the complex. About Walter HerzWalter Herz company is a leading Polish entity which has been operating in the commercial real estate sector across the country. For nine years, the company has been providing comprehensive and strategic investment consulting services for tenants, investors and real estate owners. It provides extensive support for both public and private sector. Walter Herz experts assist clients in finding and leasing space, and give advice when it comes to investment and hotel projects.In addition to its headquarters in Warsaw, the company operates in Cracow and the Tri-City. Walter Herz has created Tenant Academy, first project in the country, supporting and educating commercial real estate tenants across Poland, with on-site courses held in the largest cities in the country. In order to ensure the highest ethical level of services provided, the agency introduced the Code of Good Practice. About OKAMOKAM Capital has been a leader among the real estate development companies for over 17 years. The company specializes in residential and commercial construction. OKAM portfolio includes 25 projects in 7 cities in Poland, such as Strefa PROGRESS in Łódź, INCITY and CITYFLOW in Warsaw district of Wola, MOKKA, VISTA and CENTRAL HOUSE in Mokotów, ARLET HOUSE in Ochota, ŻOLI ŻOLI in Żoliborz, BOHEMA - Strefa Praga in Praga Północ and 62 ha in Warsaw district of Żerań. In Katowice, the company is implementing investments in Dolina Trzech Stawów: DOM W DOLINIE TRZECH STAWÓW and INSPIRE. The assets of OKAM also include historic tenement houses in the center of Katowice as well as in Cracow.At the end of 2018, OKAM introduced the New Quality Policy as an expression of corporate social responsibility. Starting with the CENTRAL HOUSE investment, all OKAM residential investments will be equipped with pro-ecological and functional solutions supporting climate protection and improving the comfort of living, such as electric vehicle rental, bicycle rental, air purifiers, solar panels, systems for reusing rainwater, etc.
Let‘s Try Again

Let‘s Try Again

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 23.02.2022 15:53
S&P 500 had a wild swings day, and didn‘t rise convincingly – credit markets didn‘t move correspondingly either. The upswing looks postponed unless fresh signs of broad weakness arrive. Yesterday‘s session didn‘t tell much either way – the countdown to the upswing materializing, is on even though tech didn‘t take advantage of higher bond prices. That can still come.VIX though reversed to the downside, and the relatively calmer session we‘re likely going to experience today, would be consistent with a modest attempt for stocks to move higher. I‘m though not looking for a monstrous rally, even though we‘re trading closer to the lower end of the wide S&P 500 range for this year than to its upper border. The 4,280s are so far holding but as the Mar FOMC approaches, we‘re likely to see a fresh turn south in the 500-strong index. For now, the talk of raising rates is on the back burner – Europe is in the spotlight.Note that the flight to safety on rising tensions (Treasuries, gold and oil up) didn‘t benefit the dollar. Coupled with the yields reprieve, that makes for further precious metals gains – the bull run won‘t be toppled if soothing news arrives. Likewise crude oil isn‘t going to tank below $90, and remain there. Commodities can be counted on to keep running – led by energy and agrifoods, with base metals (offering a helping hand to silver) in tow. As I wrote weeks ago, this is where the real gains are to be found.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 volume moved a little up, meaning the buying interest is still there – convincing signs of a trend change are though yet not apparent. Should prices prove to have trouble breaking lower over the next 1-2 days, this could still turn out a good place for a little long positon.Credit MarketsHYG continues basing, and keeps trading in a risk-off fashion, which is why I can‘t be wildly bullish stocks for now. Stock market gains are likely to remain subdued, noticeably subdued – as a bare minimum for today.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals fireworks continue, but a little reprieve is developing – nothing though that would break the bull. The run is only starting, and would continue through the rate raising cycle.Crude OilCrude oil is fairly well bid, and doesn‘t appear to be really dipping any time soon. Oil stocks are preparing for an upswing, and would remain one of the best performing S&P 500 sectors. Tripple digit oil is a question of time.CopperCopper‘s moment in the spotlight is approaching as commodities keeps pushing higher, and base metals are breaking up. All of these factors are inflationary.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are attempting to move up today, and further gains are likely. I‘m though looking for the 50-day moving average in Bitcoin (corresponding roughly to the mid Feb lows in Ethereum) to prove an obstacle.SummaryS&P 500 didn‘t break to new lows overnight, and appears to be picking up somewhat today. The anticipated rebound might materialize later today, and would require bond participation to be credible. I‘m not looking for sharp gains within this upswing though – the correction looks very much to have further to run. It‘s commodities and precious metals where the largest gains are to be made, with the European tensions taking the focus off inflation (momentarily). The pressure on the Fed to act decisively, is though still on as various credit spreads tell – and the same goes for the compressed yield curve speaking volumes about the (precarious) state of the real economy.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Digital World Acquisition Corp Stock News and Forecast: Premarket more bullish on DWAC than regular session

Digital World Acquisition Corp Stock News and Forecast: Premarket more bullish on DWAC than regular session

FXStreet News FXStreet News 23.02.2022 16:05
DWAC stock spiked 28% in Tuesday's premarket after TRUTH Social began accepting users.Tuesday's regular session, however, saw DWAC jump only half as high.Digital World Acquisition Corp's share count is expected to more than quadruple one month after merger closes.Digital World Acquisition Corp (DWAC) stock could not compete in Tuesday's regular session with its performance in the premarket. DWAC shares exploded 28% to $108 before the markets opened on Tuesday. Once the public session got under way, however, DWAC could not even break $100. The Special Purpose Acquisition Vehicle (SPAC) slated to take former President Donald Trump's Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) public in the next month still closed up 10.2% to $92.90 on a day when most equities sold off due to tensions on the Ukraine-Russia front.Donald Trump's social media startup, TRUTH Social, began allowing app downloads on Apple devices on Sunday, February 20, which caused the price to spike on Tuesday when markets opened after the Presidents' Day holiday.Digital World Acquisition Corp Stock News: 172K waitlistedOn Tuesday, Newsweek reported that more than 172,000 accounts had been waitlisted, and other sources said many of those seeking to gain access had received error messages. Research firm Apptopia estimated there were 170,000 downloads on Monday in the US. The app was the top free download in Apple's App Store on Monday.This was good news for the most part since trouble accessing a new app due to popularity is normally a sign that it is a hit. Traders, however, began taking profits almost immediately when DWAC shares popped to $99 at the open.A steady drip of new download figures should buoy the stock in the coming days as the company has said it may take 10 days to onboard all the early adopters. The only major worry going forward is the coming share count increase. Thirty days after the merger is completed, separate shares owned by insiders, underwriters, and private investors who invested in the SPAC's separate PIPE deal (Private Investment in Public Equity) will be allowed to trade. This means that the current 37 million-odd shares will grow overnight to more than 170 million. Though this is not a standard dilution event, the increase may put downward pressure on the share price.Additionally, another 40 million "earnout" shares might be earned by company insiders and owners if the share price remains above $15, $20 or $30 a share on average in the month after the merger. Then there are the 15 million warrants that could get exercised in September 2022. By the end of the year, there could be 225 million total shares. Digital World Acquisition Corp Stock Forecast: Two top trend linesAfter opening on Tuesday at $99, the stock immediately sold down to $85.67 before rebounding throughout the rest of the day. Twice during Tuesday's session, DWAC faced resistance near $96.DWAC is trading within an ascending price channel, which gives the market confidence to hold out for higher prices. Traders should note that there are two separate possible top trend lines available to them. The first one (yellow) is the more recent trend that began on January 24. It is much steeper and takes a trajectory aimed at the 161.8% Fibonacci level at $134.90. The other (blue) began back on December 8 and takes a more conservative and gradual aim at the $120 level, which was significant during the first rally in price action back during late October.The swing highs from January 19, February 7 and 22 are all slightly higher than one another, demonstrating that and uptrend is definitely motion no matter which top trend line is preferred. Support sits at $78, $60 and $38. DWAC 1-day chart
Stocks Fell Again – a Dip Buying Opportunity?

Stocks Fell Again – a Dip Buying Opportunity?

Paul Rejczak Paul Rejczak 23.02.2022 15:35
  Stocks were volatile yesterday and the broad stock market fell by another 1%. Was it a final decline or just another leg within a downtrend? The S&P 500 index lost 1.01% on Tuesday, Feb. 22, as it extended its last week’s Thursday’s-Friday’s sell-off. The daily low was at 4,267.11, and the market closed slightly above the 4,300 mark. We’ve seen a lot of volatility following the U.S. President Biden’s speech on Russia-Ukraine conflict. This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.7% higher. We may see more volatility, however it looks like a short-term bottoming pattern. The nearest important resistance level is at 4,350-4,400, marked by the recent local low and some previous support levels. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,250-4,300, among others. The S&P 500 index trades within its late January consolidation, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract – Short-Term Consolidation Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. It extended the downtrend on Monday, but it managed to stay slightly above its late January local lows. For now, it looks like a short-term consolidation. It may be a bottoming pattern before an upward correction. Yesterday, we decided to open a speculative long position before the opening of the cash market. We are expecting an upward correction from the current levels (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index went below the 4,300 level yesterday, as investors reacted to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis news. The market may be trading within a short-term consolidation and we may see an attempt at reversing the downtrend. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index will likely bounce or fluctuate following its late last week’s sell-off We are maintaining our yesterday’s long position. We are expecting an upward correction from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Miners for Breakfast, Gold for Dessert: Bearish Fundamentals Will Hurt

Miners for Breakfast, Gold for Dessert: Bearish Fundamentals Will Hurt

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 23.02.2022 15:59
  To the disappointment of gold bulls, the yellow metal’s upward trend will not last long. Fundamentals have already taken their toll on gold miners.  While gold remains uplifted due to the Russia-Ukraine drama, the GDXJ ETF declined for the second-straight day on Feb. 22. Moreover, I warned on numerous occasions that the junior miners are more correlated with the general stock market than their precious metals peers. As a result, when the S&P 500 slides, the GDXJ ETF often follows suit. To that point, with shades of 2018 unfolding beneath the surface, the Russia-Ukraine headlines have covered up the implications of the current correction. However, the similarities should gain more traction in the coming weeks. For context, I wrote on Feb. 22: When the Fed’s rate hike cycle roiled the NASDAQ 100 in 2017-2018, the GDXJ ETF suffered too. Thus, while the Russia-Ukraine drama has provided a distraction, the fundamentals that impacted both asset classes back then are present now. Please see below: To explain, the green line above tracks the GDXJ ETF in 2018, while the black line above tracks the NASDAQ 100. If you analyze the performance, you can see that the Fed’s rate hike cycle initially rattled the former and the latter rolled over soon after. However, the negativity persisted until Fed Chairman Jerome Powell performed a dovish pivot and both assets rallied. As a result, with the Fed Chair unlikely to perform a dovish pivot this time around, the junior miners have some catching up to do. Furthermore, while the S&P 500 also reacts to the geopolitical risks, the Fed’s looming rate hike cycle is a much bigger story. With the U.S. equity benchmark also following its price path from 2018, a drawdown to new 2022 lows should help sink the GDXJ ETF. Please see below: Source: Morgan Stanley To explain, the yellow line above tracks the S&P 500 from March 2018 until February 2019, while the blue line above tracks the index's current movement. If you analyze the performance, it's a near-splitting image. Moreover, while Morgan Stanley Chief Equity Strategist Michael Wilson thinks a relief rally to ~4,600 is plausible, he told clients that "this correction looks incomplete." "Rarely have we witnessed such weak breadth and havoc under the surface when the S&P 500 is down less than 10%. In our experience, when such a divergence like this happens, it typically ends with the primary index catching down to the average stock," he added. As a result, while a short-term bounce off of oversold conditions may materialize, the S&P 500's downtrend should resume with accelerated fervor. In the process, the GDXJ ETF should suffer materially as the medium-term drama unfolds.  To that point, the Fed released the minutes from its discount rate meetings on Jan. 18 and Jan. 26. While the committee left interest rates unchanged, the report revealed: “Given ongoing inflation pressures and strong labor market conditions, a number of directors noted that it might soon become appropriate to begin a process of removing policy accommodation. The directors of three Reserve Banks favored increasing the primary credit rate to 0.50 percent, in response to elevated inflation or to help manage economic and financial stability risks over the longer term.” For context, the hawkish pleas came from the Cleveland, St. Louis, and Kansas City Feds. Moreover, the last time Fed officials couldn’t reach a unanimous decision was October 2019. As a result, the lack of agreement highlights the monetary policy uncertainty that should help upend financial assets in the coming months. As evidence, the report also revealed: Source: U.S. Fed Thus, while I’ve highlighted on numerous occasions that a bullish U.S. economy is bearish for the PMs, the Russia-Ukraine drama has been a short-term distraction. However, with Fed officials highlighting that growth and inflation meet their thresholds for tightening monetary policy, higher real interest rates and a stronger USD Index will have much more influence over the medium term. To that point, IHS Markit released its U.S. Composite PMI on Feb. 22. With the headline index increasing from 51.1 in January to 56.0 in February, an excerpt from the report read: “February data highlighted a sharp and accelerated increase in new business among private sector companies that was the fastest in seven months. Firms mentioned that sales were boosted by the retreat of the pandemic, improved underlying demand, expanded client bases, aggressive marketing campaigns and new partnerships. Customers reportedly made additional purchases to avoid future price hikes. Quicker increases in sales (trades) were evident among both manufacturers and service providers.” More importantly, though: Source: IHS Markit In addition, since the Fed’s dual mandate includes inflation and employment, the report revealed: Source: IHS Markit Likewise, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, added: “With demand rebounding and firms seeing a relatively modest impact on order books from the Omicron wave, future output expectations improved to the highest for 15 months, and jobs growth accelerated to the highest since last May, adding to the upbeat picture.” If that wasn't enough, the Richmond Fed released its Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity on Feb. 22. While the headline index wasn't so optimistic, the report revealed that "the third component in the composite index, employment, increased to 20 from 4 in January" and that "firms continued to report increasing wages." For context, the dashed light blue line below tracks the month-over-month (MoM) change, while the dark blue line below tracks the three-month moving average. If you analyze the former's material increase, it's another data point supporting the Fed's hawkish crusade. Source: Richmond Fed Finally, the Richmond Fed also released its Fifth District Survey of Service Sector Activity on Feb. 22. For context, the U.S. service sector suffers the brunt of COVID-19 waves. However, the recent decline in cases has increased consumers’ appetite for in-person activities. The report revealed: “Fifth District service sector activity showed improvement in February, according to the most recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The revenues index increased from 4 in January to 11 in February. The demand index remained in expansionary territory at 23. Firms also reported increases in spending, as the index for capital expenditures, services expenditures, and equipment and software spending all increased.” Furthermore, with the employment index increasing from 12 to 14, the wages index increasing from 41 to 46, and the average workweek index increasing from 9 to 10, the labor market strengthened in February. Likewise, the index that tracks businesses’ ability to find skilled workers increased from -21 to -19. As a result, inflation, employment and economic growth create the perfect cocktail for the Fed to materially tighten monetary policy in the coming months.  Source: Richmond Fed The bottom line? While the Russia-Ukraine saga may dominate the headlines for some time, the bearish fundamentals that hurt gold and silver in 2021 remain intact: the U.S. economy is on solid footing, and demand is still fueling inflation. Moreover, with information technology and communication services’ stocks – which account for roughly 39% of the S&P 500 – highly allergic to higher interest rates, the volatility should continue to weigh on the GDXJ ETF. As such, while gold may have extended its shelf life, mining stocks may not be so lucky. In conclusion, the PMs were mixed on Feb. 22, as the news cycle continues to swing financial assets in either direction. However, while headlines may have a short-term impact, technicals and fundamentals often reign supreme over the medium term. As a result, lower lows should confront gold, silver, and mining stocks in the coming months. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Crypto Airdrop - Explanation - How Does It Work?

Bitcoin lower as expected of course after our latest sell signal was triggered.

Jason Sen Jason Sen 24.02.2022 08:05
(Because it has never been regarded as a safe haven in times of trouble & always goes down when stock markets panic. Also been proven to be no inflation hedge of course). Ripple reversed in between resistance at 7250/80 & 7610/30 & continues lower as expected. Ethereum breaks the 500 day moving average at 2450/2400 for yet another sell signal. Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis Bitcoin breaks 40800/500 for a medium term sell signal in the 3 month bear trend initially targeting 38000/37500 then 36400/36000 & probably as far as 34000. Do not be surprised to see a test of the 100 week moving average at 32690/700 (today's value). Gains are likely to be limited in the bear trend with first resistance at 36300/400 then 39400/450. Further resistance at 40900/41000. Shorts need stops above 42200. Ripple lower again as expected to test very important 100 week moving average support at 6190/6160. Longs need stops below 6100. A break lower quickly targets 5800. If you are very brave & want to try longs at 6190/6160, look for targets of 6660/90, & perhaps as far as 6900 for profit taking. Ethereum breaks the 500 day moving average at 2450/2400 for yet another sell signal in the bear trend as we look for a retest of the January low at 2160/55. I would not rely on this holding the downside & if we continue lower look for a test of very strong support at 1900/1850. Longs need stops below 1750. If this breaks there is likely to be another very significant move to the downside. Bulls desperately need prices to hold above 2500 now to regain control. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
WTI calmer on Wednesday near $92.00 as traders monitor Ukraine crisis, US/Iran nuclear negotiations

WTI calmer on Wednesday near $92.00 as traders monitor Ukraine crisis, US/Iran nuclear negotiations

FXStreet News FXStreet News 23.02.2022 16:05
WTI is trading more calmly on Wednesday and is currently roughly flat in the $92.00 area awaiting fresh geopolitical developments. As geopolitical risk premia remains elevated, oil is likely to remain a buy on dips. A possible US/Iran nuclear deal, which would free up 1.3M BPD in exports, is a downside risk traders should note. After Tuesday’s choppy session which saw front-month WTI futures print fresh seven-year highs at $96.00 per barrel before swinging lower again, oil markets are experiencing calmer conditions on Wednesday. WTI is currently trading towards the top of mid-$90 to mid-$92.00 intra-day ranges near the $92.00 mark, where it is broadly flat on the day. Wednesday’s roughly $2.0 intra-day range compares to Tuesday’s intra-day range of more than $5.50. Crude oil markets are continuing to monitor developments regarding the Ukraine crisis as fears about a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine remain elevated and Western nations hit Russia with sanctions over its recognition of the independence of breakaway Ukrainian regions. These sanctions have so far been focused on targeting Russian banks and wealthy individuals, with US President Joe Biden on Tuesday making it clear that the US wasn’t yet to target Russian commodity exports. The geopolitical impetus for WTI to push above $96.00 and on towards $100, thus, is not yet there. But US officials have signalled that if Russia takes further aggressive action against Ukraine all options for further sanctions are on the table and this is a key risk oil traders will be monitoring in the coming days. “The prospect of more conflict in Ukraine should safeguard the geopolitical risk premium,” said one commodity analyst, whilst another warned that “There is a risk that Russia will retaliate to the sanctions by reducing deliveries of its own accord”. Thus, for now, it seems likely that dips back towards $90.00 will continue to be bought, as has been the case over the past two or so weeks. Eyes will be on a meeting of the UN General Assembly on Ukraine later in the day, which should generate fresh geopolitical headlines, as well as US weekly oil inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute at 2130GMT. Another theme at the top of oil traders’ minds is the prospect of a US/Iran nuclear deal. A deal would pave the way for the US to lift sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports. According to ING, this would ease concerns over OPEC+ spare capacity (or lack thereof). The bank said “Iran is currently producing at around 2.5mln BPD but is estimated to have a capacity of closer to 3.8mln BPD, therefore, over time there is the potential for 1.3mln BPD of additional supply to come onto the market”. “Nuclear talks in Vienna are reaching a sensitive and important point” said Iran's foreign minister on Wednesday.
Final Target Hit on NYMEX Natural Gas!

Final Target Hit on NYMEX Natural Gas!

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 23.02.2022 16:59
  The Natural Gas flight just landed after hitting its second and last target yesterday. The perfect trade does not exist, but this one has been developing pretty well following our flying map. In today’s edition, I will provide a trade review for Natural Gas futures (NGH22) following my last projections published on Friday Feb-11, for which the stop was also updated last Wednesday and trailed again last Thursday. Trade Plan Just to remember, our initial plan was relying on a gas market having to cope with stronger demand to fuel and increasing industrial activity after being surprised by the warming mid-February weather forecast. Hence, the projected rebounding floor (or support level) provided, which was ideal for the Henry Hub given the unyielding global demand for US Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), providing a catapulting upward momentum. Then, it took a few days for the first suggested objective at $4.442 to be passed, and a few extra days for the second target located at the $4.818 level to be hit (as it was yesterday). Meanwhile, as I explained in more detail in my last risk-management-related article to secure profits, our subscribers were kindly and promptly invited to place their initial stop just below the $3.629 level (below one-month previous swing low), before receiving a couple of trading alerts suggesting they manually trail it up around the $3.886 level (around breakeven), then one more time up towards 4.180 (which corresponds to the 50% distance between initial entry and target 1), and finally to be lifted up to 4.368 optimally. Consequently, after a reconnaissance mission got close enough to target number 2, the Nat-Gas flight started running out of kerosene after passing through the first target like a fighter jet would break the sound barrier. Therefore, after getting refueled at a lower altitude (just above our highest elevation trailing stop) by a refuelling aircraft, the jet was finally ready to point and lock its last target before striking it. Here is a picture-by-picture record of that trade. First step: flight preparation on carrier ship Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Second step: prices catapulted and stop lifted at breakeven once the mid-point target was reached Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Third step: target one hit and stop dragged up Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Zoom to target one (4H chart): Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, 4H chart) Fourth step: mission reconnaissance to target two and refueling aircraft en route to refill the jet tank (stop trailing again) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Zoom to lock final target (4H chart): Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, 4H chart) Fifth step: final strike to target two Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Now, let’s zoom one more time into the 4H chart to observe the recent price action all around the abovementioned steps of our flying map: Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, 4H chart) As you may observe, target one is now serving as a new landing space (support) for a new ranging market cycle. That’s all, folks, for today. I hope that you enjoyed the flight with our company! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Dax 40 bounced to very strong resistance at 14750/800 but ran as far as…

Dax 40 bounced to very strong resistance at 14750/800 but ran as far as…

Jason Sen Jason Sen 24.02.2022 11:06
14893 - I hope you managed to hold on the short for the collapse as far as 14000. EuroStoxx 50 MARCH breaks important support at 3900/3880 to hit my first target of 3810/00. FTSE 100 MARCH crashed as far as 7251 as Ukraine is attacked. Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis. Dax has crashed as far as my target & strong longer term moving average support at 14100/000. A break below 13900 should trigger significant moves to the downside, initially targeting 13750/710. However a bounce from 14000 is certainly possible, initially targeting 14280/330, perhaps as far as resistance at 14500/550. EuroStoxx broke important support at 3900/3880 initially targeting 3810/00 (hit) & perhaps as far as 3750/40. Longs are very risky but I cannot rule out a bounce from 3810/00 to 3880/90. Further gains meet strong resistance at 3940/50. FTSE crashed as far as 7251 as Ukraine is attacked. Strong resistance at 7315/40. Above 7350 however can target 7390/7400. Further losses certainly are possible to 7190/80. Expect strong support at 7130/10. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
Emini S&P MARCH shot higher to resistance at 4327/32 & almost…

Emini S&P MARCH shot higher to resistance at 4327/32 & almost…

Jason Sen Jason Sen 24.02.2022 11:55
as far as 4350/60 before prices collapsed. Nasdaq MARCH shorts at 14100/150 worked perfectly on the collapsed 14100/150 to my targets of 13850/800, 13600/580 & to within 100 ticks of VERY IMPORTANT SUPPORT AT 13000/12950 as I write this morning. Emini Dow Jones MARCH may have just completed a huge head & shoulders reversal pattern for an important longer term sell signal. Update daily at 07:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Emini S&P breaks incredibly important support at 4195/4185. Holding below here could trigger another 15% correction to the downside. We have already hit 4116. If we continue lower look for 4065/55. Key resistance at 4195/4205. As long as this hold, the outlook is very negative. However if we close the day above here it signals a false break & we could get quite a short squeeze. A break above 4215 today should confirm a move towards 4260/70, perhaps as far as 4300/10. Nasdaq tests very important longer term support at 13000/12900. Definitely worth trying a long as this could be a low for the correction at this stage. Longs need stops below 12800. A break lower however could send prices down another 100 points eventually. Holding support at 13000/12900 targets 13500/600. If we continue higher look for 13800/850. Emini Dow Jones broke support at 33200/33000 for an important longer term sell signal. So far we have hit 32226. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE VERY IMPORTANT LONGER TERM SUPPORT AT 32400/300 SO HOLDING HERE TODAY TRIGGERS A GOOD RECOVERY TO STRONG RESISTANCE AT 32900/33000. There are the only two levels that matter today. A break below 32000 is then a very important longer term sell signal & could see 750 tick losses almost immediately. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
It Begins

It Begins

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 24.02.2022 16:00
S&P 500 reprieve that wasn‘t – the buyers didn‘t arrive, and the overnight military action sparking serious asset moves, shows that buying the dip would have been a bad idea. And it still is. Risk-on assets are likely to suffer, and I‘m not looking for a sharp, V-shaped rebound. The partial retracement seen in cryptos wouldn‘t translate to much upside in paper assets – it will likely be sold into as the bottom would take time to form. The safe haven premium seen in precious metals, crude oil and other real assets would ebb and flow, but a higher base has been established. The world has changed overnight, and recognition thereof is still pending.I think it‘s clear why I had been derisking as much as possible, wary of volatility both ways in paper assets, and betting instead on a mix of real assets. This has been hugely paying off to subscribers and readers likewise favoring gold and crude oil with some copper added for good measure.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThis isn‘t how an S&P 500 bottom looks like – downswing continues with more volatility ahead.Credit MarketsHYG is going down again, and credit markets are turning risk-off – look for Treasuries to do relatively better next, with little impact upon stocks.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals fireworks continue, and the upswing got a poweful ally. Whatever retracement seen next, would be marginal in light of the developments.Crude OilCrude oil upswing can be counted on to continue, and oil stocks would remain among the best performing S&P 500 pockets. Black gold is though notorious for its wild volatility, and the coming days won‘t be an exception.CopperCopper upswing would take time to develop, especially now – but the breakout in base metals is on, the inflationary messaging is still there and thriving.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos aren‘t in a rally mode, but are attempting to put in a low. I don‘t think it would hold, the dust hasn‘t settled yet.SummaryS&P 500 is plunging, and attempting to base, but more selling would inevitably hit. The overnight dust hasn‘t settled yet, but the panic lows would not happen today. Even if it weren‘t for geopolitics, stocks were in rough waters for weeks already, in a serious, yields and liquidity driven correction, with a slowing real economy on top. For all the short-term focus, the buying opportunity would materialize only once the Fed turns – by autumn 2022. The best places to be in right now, are those presented below – precious metals and commodities – as inflation fires continue to rage on.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Will War Change How We Spend Or Invest Our Money?

Will War Change How We Spend Or Invest Our Money?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 24.02.2022 22:23
I discussed the potential for the invasion into Ukraine with a friend over the past few days and how this new war may change the global economy. We ended up discussing the Invasion of Kuwait that took place in August 1990. At that time, as soon as the Invasion of Kuwait started, consumers almost immediately changed their spending and financial habits.Suddenly, people stopped going out to dinner after work. They stopped going out for drinks. They also stopped playing computer games and spending money on most outside entertainment (movies and movie rentals – back in the Blockbuster days). In short, consumers became fascinated by the televised war and lost focus on almost everything else.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! As the conversation progressed, we started talking about how the US Federal Reserve may suddenly find that consumers have begun pulling away from traditional spending habits and how quickly these consumer trends can alter the economic landscape. For example, nearly 60 days into the Invasion of Kuwait, my friend remembered the US economy shifted into a much slower gear, and consumers continued to stay away from more normal spending habits.If this happens in today's super-inflated world, we may see a sudden shift in inflation, retail, housing, and general consumer demand very quickly. Recently, I started receiving messages from friends and clients worldwide who are focused on the Invasion of Ukraine – a whole new generation of people who may become entranced in the televised war (again).Consumer Retail May Suffer A -60% CollapseThis XRT Weekly Chart highlights the pre-COVID support levels that may become future targets if consumer spending habits suddenly shift. XRT has already fallen nearly -32% from the recent highs. If consumers continue to move away from outside economic activities, or more common post-COVID economic activities, we may see the Retail sector continue to move lower.Housing May Contract Faster Than ExpectedReal Estate may contract to near the COVID lows if consumers shy away from chasing speculative price trends in housing. Flipping houses has become a very hot industry over the past 5+ years. Yet, suddenly larger firms like Zillow and OpenDoor started offloading their Real Estate inventory because consumer demand shifted ahead of the US Fed's proposed rate hikes in 2022. The double-whammy of rising rates and war may be similar to what happened in the US between 1993 and 1994 – a very stagnant housing market.IYR has already fallen -16.5% from the highs and may decline to levels closer to -30% (or more) before finding a bottom. Wars tend to shift economies and spending habits very quickly.What To Stay Focused On Amid All The NoiseTraders should stay keenly focused on market risks and weaknesses. I expected the conflict in Ukraine to have been priced into the US markets over the past 7+ days. However, I believe the markets were unprepared for this scale or invasion and will attempt to settle fair stock price valuation levels as the conflict continues. This is not the same US/Global market Bullish trend we've become used to trading over the past 5+ years. The market dynamics and trends are changing from what we have experienced over the past 40 years for stocks and bonds. The 60/40 portfolio is costing you money now. Traders need an edge to stay ahead of these markets trends and to protect and profit from big trends.The only way to navigate the financial markets safely, no matter the direction, is through technical analysis. By following assets and money flows, we identify trend changes and move our capital into whatever index, sector, industry, bond, commodity, country, and even currency ETF. By following the money, you become part of new emerging trends and can profit during weak stock or bond conditions.What Trading Strategies Will Help You To Navigate Current Market Trends?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 
Market Update: NDX100 posts surprise rally reversal pattern starting to form?

Market Update: NDX100 posts surprise rally reversal pattern starting to form?

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 25.02.2022 06:30
Today we’re starting to watch what could be a developing reversal pattern on the NDX100 D1 chart. I’m sure we’re all aware of the disaster that the markets faced yesterday. The script went to que as we watched stock indexes plunge after news that Russia had invaded Ukraine hit the markets. This continued what had been a long sharp downtrend on the NDX100 and other major stock indexes. But what a lot of us may not have seen coming was a risk recovery late in the US session. Not only did stock indexes reverse losses but other risk markets followed and safe havens plunged, refer to gold. Why did we see the change in momentum? Could markets have simply reached a value point and shaken off the news? Could news of Russia offering to sit down and talk with Ukrain spurred buyer interest? Regardless of the reason it happened, now we are looking at levels and patterns being formed to start trying to form some opinion of the current picture. Firstly, we can see that the low stopped in a demand area and for now price closed firmly above the test. Another pattern we are starting to watch is in early development but has started to show some shape. That pattern is an inverse head and shoulders and these can be reversal patterns. Yes, we have the first shoulder and a head but we still need a second shoulder and a break of a neckline to fully confirm a completed pattern. It’s definitely something to keep in mind but as mentioned it’s still a fair way off. For now, we want to see buyers continue to post gains to show control, traders still need to keep the macro situation in mind as any escalations could resume the selling. NDX100 D1 Chart The post Market Update: NDX100 posts surprise rally reversal pattern starting to form? appeared first on Eightcap.
Bitcoin lower to 36400/36000 as expected but held 300 pips above my next target of 34000.

Bitcoin lower to 36400/36000 as expected but held 300 pips above my next target of 34000.

Jason Sen Jason Sen 25.02.2022 09:07
Ripple made a low for the day almost exactly at very important 100 week moving average support at 6190/6160. If you were very brave & bought in to longs at 6190/6160, worked perfectly hitting targets of 6660/90 & 6900 for profit taking. Ethereum broke the 500 day moving average at 2450/2400 for a sell signal but unexpectedly reversed from 2300. Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis Bitcoin beat first resistance at 36300/400 to test second resistance at 39400/450. Bulls need a break above 40000 this weekend to target the 500 day moving average at 41900/42000. Unlikely but if we continue higher look for strong resistance at 44100/400. Holding second resistance at 39400/450 targets 38000/37800. If we continue lower look for 36400/36000 & probably as far as 34400/34000. Do not be surprised to see a test of very strong support at 100 week moving average at 33000/800 (today's value). Ripple made a low for the day almost exactly at very important 100 week moving average support at 6190/6160. If you were very brave & bought in to longs at 6190/6160, worked perfectly hitting targets of 6660/90 & 6900 for profit taking. However we continue higher to 7219. EXPECT VERY STRONG RESISTANCE AT 7270/7370. Shorts need stops above 7450. A break higher is a buy signal targeting 7740/7800. Holding below 6900 is more negative over the weekend & risks a slide to 6600 before a retest of very important 100 week moving average support at 6190/6160. Longs need stops below 6100. A break lower quickly targets 5800. Ethereum made a bounce from 100 pips below the big support level & bulls unexpectedly have held prices above 2500 now to regain control. Minor resistance at 2670/90. A break above 2750 signals further gains to 2800, perhaps as far as resistance at 2790/2810. A high for the weekend possible here. Support at the 500 day moving average at 2450/2400. A break below 2300 can retest the January low at 2160/55. I would not rely on this holding the downside & if we continue lower look for a test of very strong support at 1900/1850. Longs need stops below 1750. If this breaks there is likely to be another very significant move to the downside. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
COT Soft Commodities Speculators pushed their Corn bullish bets higher this week

COT Soft Commodities Speculators pushed their Corn bullish bets higher this week

Invest Macro Invest Macro 26.02.2022 18:24
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT soft commodities data is this week’s jump in Corn futures bets. The speculative net position in the Corn futures rose sharply this week following two weeks of decline. The Corn speculator position, despite falling in the previous two weeks, have now actually gained by a total of +63,604 contracts over the past five weeks. The boost has pushed speculator positions to the highest bullish position of the past three weeks and second highest of the past eight weeks. Corn prices, meanwhile, surged upwards this week and touched the highest level since May of last year. The soft commodities that saw higher speculator bets this week were Corn (37,250 contracts), Sugar (683 contracts), Soybeans (9,732 contracts), Soybean Oil (15,773 contracts), Soybean Meal (2,556 contracts) and Wheat (1,944 contracts). The soft commodities that saw lower speculator bets this week were Coffee (-2,634 contracts), Cocoa (-7,301 contracts), Live Cattle (-1,324 contracts), Cotton (-3,421 contracts) and Lean Hogs (-894 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-22-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 2,058,132 29 339,041 2 -382,891 90 43,850 77 Gold 611,488 49 243,148 65 -269,722 35 26,574 40 Silver 163,745 29 30,302 53 -43,720 56 13,418 21 Copper 204,123 29 25,575 61 -34,754 36 9,179 78 Palladium 7,903 7 -1,429 13 1,118 83 311 63 Platinum 62,274 26 17,540 27 -22,887 76 5,347 37 Natural Gas 1,107,113 2 -130,629 39 95,974 61 34,655 67 Brent 215,908 52 -26,355 73 24,478 31 1,877 35 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 826,824 51 226,464 86 -196,755 20 -29,709 21 Corn 1,563,758 32 451,742 88 -410,962 13 -40,780 20 Coffee 252,688 24 67,791 98 -72,509 3 4,718 21 Sugar 857,376 8 75,246 52 -95,306 50 20,060 33 Wheat 379,308 23 -3,902 44 10,629 51 -6,727 69   CORN Futures: The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 451,742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 37,250 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 414,492 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent. CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.3 43.5 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.4 69.8 11.8 – Net Position: 451,742 -410,962 -40,780 – Gross Longs: 536,898 680,211 144,247 – Gross Shorts: 85,156 1,091,173 185,027 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 87.7 13.4 19.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.7 -6.3 -0.1   SUGAR Futures: The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 75,246 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 683 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,563 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.3 56.0 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.6 67.1 6.9 – Net Position: 75,246 -95,306 20,060 – Gross Longs: 183,029 480,097 79,212 – Gross Shorts: 107,783 575,403 59,152 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 52.1 50.1 32.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.8 7.4 10.5   COFFEE Futures: The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 67,791 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,634 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,425 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent. COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.7 41.8 4.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 3.9 70.5 2.5 – Net Position: 67,791 -72,509 4,718 – Gross Longs: 77,625 105,619 10,958 – Gross Shorts: 9,834 178,128 6,240 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 97.8 3.0 21.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.5 -7.0 9.0   SOYBEANS Futures: The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 226,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,732 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 216,732 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent. SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.1 42.9 6.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.8 66.7 10.5 – Net Position: 226,464 -196,755 -29,709 – Gross Longs: 274,012 354,837 57,443 – Gross Shorts: 47,548 551,592 87,152 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 86.3 19.5 20.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.8 -21.6 6.2   SOYBEAN OIL Futures: The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 83,093 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 15,773 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,320 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent. SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.8 44.7 9.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.6 68.4 5.9 – Net Position: 83,093 -97,272 14,179 – Gross Longs: 114,335 183,547 38,221 – Gross Shorts: 31,242 280,819 24,042 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.7 31.1 66.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 17.9 -19.1 18.5   SOYBEAN MEAL Futures: The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 112,100 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,556 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 109,544 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent. SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.5 41.9 11.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.0 73.4 5.4 – Net Position: 112,100 -138,497 26,397 – Gross Longs: 129,919 184,652 49,974 – Gross Shorts: 17,819 323,149 23,577 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.4 3.7 76.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.7 -8.8 3.0   LIVE CATTLE Futures: The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 82,243 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,324 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,567 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.4 36.4 9.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.7 55.1 13.2 – Net Position: 82,243 -67,284 -14,959 – Gross Longs: 131,540 131,571 32,596 – Gross Shorts: 49,297 198,855 47,555 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.3 52.5 50.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.7 -8.2 -25.5   LEAN HOGS Futures: The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 66,438 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -894 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,332 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 39.3 32.5 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.8 52.2 12.0 – Net Position: 66,438 -55,639 -10,799 – Gross Longs: 111,021 91,697 23,034 – Gross Shorts: 44,583 147,336 33,833 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 79.1 25.1 33.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 17.2 -22.2 21.1   COTTON Futures: The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 90,302 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,421 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 93,723 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent. COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.4 38.3 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.3 81.2 3.4 – Net Position: 90,302 -101,731 11,429 – Gross Longs: 102,764 90,576 19,371 – Gross Shorts: 12,462 192,307 7,942 – Long to Short Ratio: 8.2 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 80.2 18.5 84.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.2 2.8 -7.6   COCOA Futures: The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 41,915 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,301 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,216 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent. COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.7 42.7 5.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.4 61.4 3.1 – Net Position: 41,915 -48,066 6,151 – Gross Longs: 83,987 109,435 14,151 – Gross Shorts: 42,072 157,501 8,000 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 61.6 35.9 78.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 24.6 -26.5 30.1   WHEAT Futures: The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,902 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,944 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,846 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent. WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.8 40.8 8.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.8 38.0 10.7 – Net Position: -3,902 10,629 -6,727 – Gross Longs: 97,675 154,648 33,795 – Gross Shorts: 101,577 144,019 40,522 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.7 51.2 69.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.1 -1.4 18.7   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Energy Speculators drop WTI Crude Oil bets for 5th week despite Oil Price jump

COT Energy Speculators drop WTI Crude Oil bets for 5th week despite Oil Price jump

Invest Macro Invest Macro 26.02.2022 18:40
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT energy data is the continued decline in the WTI Crude Oil futures bets. The speculative net position in the WTI Crude Oil futures has decreased for five consecutive weeks and in thirteen out of the past fifteen weeks. The spec crude position has dropped by a total of -82,271 contracts over the past fifteen weeks and speculators have now pushed their current net positioning to the lowest level of the past seven weeks. These declines in speculator sentiment has brought the current speculator strength score level into a bearish-extreme standing of just 2.4 percent where the strength score measures the current speculator standing compared to past three years where above 80 is bullish-extreme and below 20 is bearish-extreme. Despite the speculator weakness, crude oil prices have shot up on the Russian invasion of Ukraine with WTI crude touching slightly above $100 per barrel late this week. Joining WTI Crude Oil (-9,052 contracts) with falling speculator bets this week were Brent Crude Oil (-30 contracts) and Heating Oil (-9,228 contracts) while Natural Gas (795 contracts), Gasoline (991 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (4,874 contracts) saw higher speculator positions on the week. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-22-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 2,058,132 29 339,041 2 -382,891 90 43,850 77 Gold 611,488 49 243,148 65 -269,722 35 26,574 40 Silver 163,745 29 30,302 53 -43,720 56 13,418 21 Copper 204,123 29 25,575 61 -34,754 36 9,179 78 Palladium 7,903 7 -1,429 13 1,118 83 311 63 Platinum 62,274 26 17,540 27 -22,887 76 5,347 37 Natural Gas 1,107,113 2 -130,629 39 95,974 61 34,655 67 Brent 215,908 52 -26,355 73 24,478 31 1,877 35 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 826,824 51 226,464 86 -196,755 20 -29,709 21 Corn 1,563,758 32 451,742 88 -410,962 13 -40,780 20 Coffee 252,688 24 67,791 98 -72,509 3 4,718 21 Sugar 857,376 8 75,246 52 -95,306 50 20,060 33 Wheat 379,308 23 -3,902 44 10,629 51 -6,727 69   WTI Crude Oil Futures: The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 339,041 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,052 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 348,093 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent. WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.5 36.1 4.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.0 54.7 2.8 – Net Position: 339,041 -382,891 43,850 – Gross Longs: 442,102 743,113 100,987 – Gross Shorts: 103,061 1,126,004 57,137 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.4 89.9 76.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.4 5.6 10.5   Brent Crude Oil Futures: The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -26,355 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -30 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,325 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent. Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.3 46.9 4.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.5 35.6 3.4 – Net Position: -26,355 24,478 1,877 – Gross Longs: 37,283 101,361 9,173 – Gross Shorts: 63,638 76,883 7,296 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 72.5 30.6 34.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.6 19.9 -23.2   Natural Gas Futures: The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -130,629 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 795 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -131,424 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent. Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.9 43.8 5.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.6 35.1 2.3 – Net Position: -130,629 95,974 34,655 – Gross Longs: 241,913 484,856 60,026 – Gross Shorts: 372,542 388,882 25,371 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.4 61.1 66.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.4 0.3 18.3   Gasoline Blendstock Futures: The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 63,587 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 991 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,596 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.3 50.1 6.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.0 69.3 3.3 – Net Position: 63,587 -74,709 11,122 – Gross Longs: 106,356 194,978 23,947 – Gross Shorts: 42,769 269,687 12,825 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 34.8 62.3 78.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -9.2 30.3   #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures: The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 6,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,683 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.0 50.8 14.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.1 60.1 6.9 – Net Position: 6,455 -32,434 25,979 – Gross Longs: 59,340 177,626 50,210 – Gross Shorts: 52,885 210,060 24,231 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.9 36.7 88.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -10.3 23.6   Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures: The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -12,167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,874 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,041 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 65.4 29.1 1.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 94.6 1.5 0.2 – Net Position: -12,167 11,468 699 – Gross Longs: 27,191 12,091 770 – Gross Shorts: 39,358 623 71 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 19.4 to 1 10.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.9 37.4 44.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 36.1 -36.8 5.0   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Metals Speculators sharply boosted Gold bets for 3rd week to 14-week high

COT Metals Speculators sharply boosted Gold bets for 3rd week to 14-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 26.02.2022 19:03
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT metals data is the sharp jump in the Gold futures bets. The speculative net position in the Gold futures has gained strongly for three consecutive weeks and by a total of +71,006 contracts over that time-frame. This week’s rise by +29,535 contracts marked the largest one-week gain of the past fifteen weeks and has brought the overall Gold speculator standing to the highest standing of the past fourteen weeks, dating back to November 16th. The Gold spot price rose sharply as well this week with a spike on Thursday (on the Russian invasion of Ukraine) that brought the spot price to the $1,976 price level before settling lower back below $1,900 as the week ended. Joining Gold (29,535 contracts) with rising speculator positions this week were Silver (6,746 contracts) and Platinum (7,408 contracts) while Copper (-5,117 contracts) and Palladium (-429 contracts) saw lower speculator bets on the week. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-22-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 2,058,132 29 339,041 2 -382,891 90 43,850 77 Gold 611,488 49 243,148 65 -269,722 35 26,574 40 Silver 163,745 29 30,302 53 -43,720 56 13,418 21 Copper 204,123 29 25,575 61 -34,754 36 9,179 78 Palladium 7,903 7 -1,429 13 1,118 83 311 63 Platinum 62,274 26 17,540 27 -22,887 76 5,347 37 Natural Gas 1,107,113 2 -130,629 39 95,974 61 34,655 67 Brent 215,908 52 -26,355 73 24,478 31 1,877 35 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 826,824 51 226,464 86 -196,755 20 -29,709 21 Corn 1,563,758 32 451,742 88 -410,962 13 -40,780 20 Coffee 252,688 24 67,791 98 -72,509 3 4,718 21 Sugar 857,376 8 75,246 52 -95,306 50 20,060 33 Wheat 379,308 23 -3,902 44 10,629 51 -6,727 69   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 243,148 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 29,535 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 213,613 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 57.3 21.2 8.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.5 65.3 3.7 – Net Position: 243,148 -269,722 26,574 – Gross Longs: 350,096 129,682 49,090 – Gross Shorts: 106,948 399,404 22,516 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.3 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.1 35.3 39.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.7 -13.6 3.5   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 30,302 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,746 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,556 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.9 34.0 16.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.4 60.7 8.0 – Net Position: 30,302 -43,720 13,418 – Gross Longs: 58,830 55,747 26,556 – Gross Shorts: 28,528 99,467 13,138 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 52.6 56.0 21.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.7 -6.2 21.0   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 25,575 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,117 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,692 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 39.7 37.9 10.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.1 54.9 5.6 – Net Position: 25,575 -34,754 9,179 – Gross Longs: 80,940 77,398 20,535 – Gross Shorts: 55,365 112,152 11,356 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.8 35.6 78.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.4 -8.4 19.3   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 17,540 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,408 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,132 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 52.1 30.6 13.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.0 67.4 5.1 – Net Position: 17,540 -22,887 5,347 – Gross Longs: 32,462 19,079 8,495 – Gross Shorts: 14,922 41,966 3,148 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.2 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.1 76.3 36.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 17.8 -17.1 -4.4   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,429 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -429 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,000 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.0 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.7 50.0 18.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 43.8 35.9 14.3 – Net Position: -1,429 1,118 311 – Gross Longs: 2,030 3,953 1,444 – Gross Shorts: 3,459 2,835 1,133 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 13.4 83.0 63.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.9 -12.3 36.8   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Bonds Speculators raised their 10-Year Treasuries bearish bets to 6-week high

COT Bonds Speculators raised their 10-Year Treasuries bearish bets to 6-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 26.02.2022 19:33
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT bonds data was the large increase in bearish bets for the 10-Year Bonds. The speculative bearish position in the 10-Year jumped this week by -111,029 contracts and marked the largest one-week rise in bearish positions since November 2nd, a span of sixteen weeks. This decline in sentiment has pushed the overall 10-Year spec positioning to the most bearish level of the past six weeks. Most of the bonds markets we cover saw an increase in their bearish bets this week as the Federal Reserve central bank is widely expected to raise their benchmark interest rate in March. Joining the 10-Year (-111,029 contracts) with speculator weakness this week were the Eurodollar (-89,630 contracts), 2-Year Bond (-4,201 contracts),  Fed Funds (-49,473 contracts), 5-Year Bond (-155,821 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (-4,242 contracts). The Ultra 10-Year (9,672 contracts) and Long US Bond (10,107 contracts) saw small improvement in their speculator contracts this week. Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-22-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index Eurodollar 11,350,313 52 -2,382,867 0 2,830,166 100 -447,299 6 FedFunds 2,062,168 76 -26,952 36 41,655 65 -14,703 25 2-Year 2,163,983 15 -119,959 58 218,056 68 -98,097 1 Long T-Bond 1,223,515 53 -14,738 88 43,269 34 -28,531 30 10-Year 4,083,463 70 -285,092 28 543,178 90 -258,086 19 5-Year 4,295,789 63 -347,236 19 483,375 77 -136,139 44   3-Month Eurodollars Futures: The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,382,867 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -89,630 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,293,237 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.0 percent. 3-Month Eurodollars Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.7 74.1 4.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.7 49.1 8.5 – Net Position: -2,382,867 2,830,166 -447,299 – Gross Longs: 536,990 8,405,647 522,154 – Gross Shorts: 2,919,857 5,575,481 969,453 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 6.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -12.2 12.9 -13.5   30-Day Federal Funds Futures: The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -26,952 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -49,473 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,521 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent. 30-Day Federal Funds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.8 75.1 2.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.1 73.1 3.2 – Net Position: -26,952 41,655 -14,703 – Gross Longs: 161,357 1,549,551 50,750 – Gross Shorts: 188,309 1,507,896 65,453 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 36.3 64.9 25.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.0 -3.4 -29.9   2-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -119,959 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,201 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -115,758 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.5 percent. 2-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.1 76.5 7.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.6 66.4 11.5 – Net Position: -119,959 218,056 -98,097 – Gross Longs: 261,710 1,655,912 150,668 – Gross Shorts: 381,669 1,437,856 248,765 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.0 67.5 1.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -34.7 44.2 -13.4   5-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -347,236 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -155,821 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -191,415 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent. 5-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.3 78.2 9.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.4 67.0 12.7 – Net Position: -347,236 483,375 -136,139 – Gross Longs: 314,612 3,360,252 409,662 – Gross Shorts: 661,848 2,876,877 545,801 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 19.3 76.9 43.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.7 -10.0 34.1   10-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -285,092 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -111,029 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -174,063 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent. 10-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.6 74.3 9.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.6 61.0 15.8 – Net Position: -285,092 543,178 -258,086 – Gross Longs: 432,764 3,034,786 385,175 – Gross Shorts: 717,856 2,491,608 643,261 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.1 89.8 18.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.1 -7.3 0.2   Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures: The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of 23,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,672 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,871 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent. Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.5 71.3 9.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.9 63.6 18.9 – Net Position: 23,543 112,921 -136,464 – Gross Longs: 226,775 1,045,206 140,723 – Gross Shorts: 203,232 932,285 277,187 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 34.0 75.9 33.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.7 5.8 29.9   US Treasury Bonds Futures: The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -14,738 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,107 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,845 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.6 72.9 14.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.9 69.4 16.6 – Net Position: -14,738 43,269 -28,531 – Gross Longs: 130,266 891,876 174,017 – Gross Shorts: 145,004 848,607 202,548 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.1 33.9 29.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 18.1 -8.4 -19.0   Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures: The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -334,381 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,242 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -330,139 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent. Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.0 79.7 11.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.8 57.6 9.2 – Net Position: -334,381 297,783 36,598 – Gross Longs: 80,638 1,072,855 159,934 – Gross Shorts: 415,019 775,072 123,336 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 48.8 60.7 54.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.1 1.4 15.8   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Forex Speculators pushed their Euro Currency bullish bets to 32-week high

COT Forex Speculators pushed their Euro Currency bullish bets to 32-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 26.02.2022 20:04
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the further rise in bullish bets in the Euro currency futures contracts. Euro speculators raised their bullish bets for a third straight week this week and for the ninth time in the past ten weeks. Over this ten-week time-frame, Euro bets have gained by a total of +71,185 contracts, going from -10,162 net positions on December 12th to a total of +59,306 net positions through this Tuesday the 22nd of February (please note that this is a couple days before the Russian invasion of Ukraine). Overall, the current Euro standing is at the most bullish level of the past thirty-two weeks, dating back to July 13th when the net position was at +59,713 contracts. Joining the Euro (11,725 contracts) with positive speculator changes this week were the yen (2,975 contracts), Brazil real (685 contracts), US Dollar Index (698 contracts), Australian dollar (2,614 contracts), Russian ruble (3,353 contracts) and the Mexican peso (7,851 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Swiss franc (-1,272 contracts), British pound sterling (-8,046 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-2,218 contracts), Canadian dollar (-2,917 contracts) and Bitcoin (-68 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-22-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 54,922 78 36,084 88 -41,368 6 5,284 74 EUR 696,682 82 59,306 53 -98,050 48 38,744 39 GBP 188,443 31 -5,809 70 10,070 36 -4,261 47 JPY 194,169 51 -63,187 28 82,480 77 -19,293 8 CHF 47,339 24 -10,987 51 19,110 52 -8,123 39 CAD 140,305 24 9,253 57 -14,143 47 4,890 40 AUD 192,579 77 -84,080 7 96,072 91 -11,992 23 NZD 56,636 56 -11,551 52 13,908 52 -2,357 25 MXN 171,299 36 16,825 35 -21,038 64 4,213 61 RUB 38,673 34 19,517 60 -20,053 40 536 49 BRL 94,577 100 24,445 100 -27,081 0 2,636 97 Bitcoin 11,007 59 -283 91 -256 0 539 25   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 36,084 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 698 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,386 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 79.6 5.0 12.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.9 80.3 3.1 – Net Position: 36,084 -41,368 5,284 – Gross Longs: 43,726 2,742 6,969 – Gross Shorts: 7,642 44,110 1,685 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.7 to 1 0.1 to 1 4.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.0 5.9 74.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.1 4.6 -10.6   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 59,306 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 11,725 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,581 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.7 54.5 12.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.2 68.6 7.3 – Net Position: 59,306 -98,050 38,744 – Gross Longs: 214,195 379,583 89,334 – Gross Shorts: 154,889 477,633 50,590 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.2 48.0 38.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.4 -18.3 18.8   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,809 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,046 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,237 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.4 61.8 12.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.5 56.4 15.1 – Net Position: -5,809 10,070 -4,261 – Gross Longs: 42,249 116,372 24,154 – Gross Shorts: 48,058 106,302 28,415 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.8 35.6 46.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.8 -16.5 9.5   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -63,187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,975 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -66,162 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.1 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.7 83.5 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.2 41.0 19.1 – Net Position: -63,187 82,480 -19,293 – Gross Longs: 10,976 162,044 17,881 – Gross Shorts: 74,163 79,564 37,174 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.1 77.2 8.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.4 -12.8 3.4   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -10,987 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,272 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,715 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.0 71.2 20.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.2 30.9 37.6 – Net Position: -10,987 19,110 -8,123 – Gross Longs: 3,785 33,718 9,691 – Gross Shorts: 14,772 14,608 17,814 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.8 52.3 39.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.8 4.0 -0.5   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 9,253 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,917 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,170 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.0 41.6 21.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.4 51.7 18.1 – Net Position: 9,253 -14,143 4,890 – Gross Longs: 47,661 58,345 30,327 – Gross Shorts: 38,408 72,488 25,437 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.6 47.3 39.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.1 -11.2 -1.0   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -84,080 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,614 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86,694 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.0 81.7 9.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 49.7 31.9 15.8 – Net Position: -84,080 96,072 -11,992 – Gross Longs: 11,553 157,416 18,459 – Gross Shorts: 95,633 61,344 30,451 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 6.9 90.6 23.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.9 -5.6 0.3   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -11,551 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,218 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,333 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.6 62.6 4.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.0 38.1 8.8 – Net Position: -11,551 13,908 -2,357 – Gross Longs: 17,343 35,481 2,608 – Gross Shorts: 28,894 21,573 4,965 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.9 51.8 24.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.9 5.6 -7.5   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,825 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,851 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,974 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.5 53.0 4.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.7 65.3 1.7 – Net Position: 16,825 -21,038 4,213 – Gross Longs: 72,846 90,784 7,091 – Gross Shorts: 56,021 111,822 2,878 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 34.5 64.0 60.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.1 -9.3 4.2   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 24,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,760 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 55.0 40.2 4.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.1 68.9 2.0 – Net Position: 24,445 -27,081 2,636 – Gross Longs: 51,990 38,039 4,541 – Gross Shorts: 27,545 65,120 1,905 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 97.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 46.6 -49.2 31.8   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 19,517 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,353 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,164 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 58.5 35.9 5.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.0 87.8 4.2 – Net Position: 19,517 -20,053 536 – Gross Longs: 22,625 13,895 2,152 – Gross Shorts: 3,108 33,948 1,616 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.3 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.6 39.6 49.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 23.4 -20.6 -25.0   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -68 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -215 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.2 2.9 12.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 79.8 5.3 7.3 – Net Position: -283 -256 539 – Gross Longs: 8,501 322 1,338 – Gross Shorts: 8,784 578 799 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.7 19.3 25.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.1 -6.1 -0.5   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Trade Zone Week Ahead with Boris Schlossberg (BK Forex): 28th February – 4th March

Trade Zone Week Ahead with Boris Schlossberg (BK Forex): 28th February – 4th March

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 26.02.2022 19:00
As we head into a new month, Boris Schlossberg of BKForex takes over the reins for our Trade Zone Trading Week Ahead for the month of March. Amidst an increasingly volatile background driven by geopolitical tensions, Boris gives his take on the assets that matter this week, looking at current short-term positions for Gold and Oil, as well as potential setups for indices and forex from both a technical and fundamental perspective. Watch the video below to get all the insight ahead of market open today. Boris Schlossberg is Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management, Co-Founder of BKForex.com, and Managing Editor of 60secondinvestor.com. Widely known as a leading foreign exchange expert, Boris has more than three decades of financial market experience. In 2007, while still at FXCM, Boris started BKForex with Ms. Kathy Lien. A year later, Boris joined Global Futures & Forex Ltd as director of currency research where he provided research and analysis to clients and managed a global foreign exchange analysis team with Kathy Lien. Since 2012 Boris has focused exclusively on running BKForex.com where he generates trade ideas and designs algorithms for the FX market in partnership with Ms. Lien. He is the author of “Technical Analysis of the Currency Market” and “Millionaire Traders: How Everyday People Beat Wall Street at its Own Game”, both of which are published by Wiley. In 2020 Mr. Schlossberg started www.60secondinvestor.com a free website that distils the best of institutional investment research for retail investors. Important Data Releases & Events this Week Tuesday CNY Manufacturing PMI AUD RBA Interest Rate Decison Wednesday EUR German Inflation Rate, Unemployment Rate EUR Eurozone CPI CAD GDP USD Markit Manufacturing PMI AUD GDP Thursday CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Friday USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Saturday USD Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate The post Trade Zone Week Ahead with Boris Schlossberg (BK Forex): 28th February – 4th March appeared first on Eightcap.
Trade Zone Week Ahead with Boris Schlossberg (BK Forex): 28th February – 4th March - 27.02.2022

Trade Zone Week Ahead with Boris Schlossberg (BK Forex): 28th February – 4th March - 27.02.2022

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 27.02.2022 19:00
As we head into a new month, Boris Schlossberg of BKForex takes over the reins for our Trade Zone Trading Week Ahead for the month of March. Amidst an increasingly volatile background driven by geopolitical tensions, Boris gives his take on the assets that matter this week, looking at current short-term positions for Gold and Oil, as well as potential setups for indices and forex from both a technical and fundamental perspective. Watch the video below to get all the insight ahead of market open today. Boris Schlossberg is Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management, Co-Founder of BKForex.com, and Managing Editor of 60secondinvestor.com. Widely known as a leading foreign exchange expert, Boris has more than three decades of financial market experience. In 2007, while still at FXCM, Boris started BKForex with Ms. Kathy Lien. A year later, Boris joined Global Futures & Forex Ltd as director of currency research where he provided research and analysis to clients and managed a global foreign exchange analysis team with Kathy Lien. Since 2012 Boris has focused exclusively on running BKForex.com where he generates trade ideas and designs algorithms for the FX market in partnership with Ms. Lien. He is the author of “Technical Analysis of the Currency Market” and “Millionaire Traders: How Everyday People Beat Wall Street at its Own Game”, both of which are published by Wiley. In 2020 Mr. Schlossberg started www.60secondinvestor.com a free website that distils the best of institutional investment research for retail investors. Important Data Releases & Events this Week Tuesday CNY Manufacturing PMI AUD RBA Interest Rate Decison Wednesday EUR German Inflation Rate, Unemployment Rate EUR Eurozone CPI CAD GDP USD Markit Manufacturing PMI AUD GDP Thursday CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Friday USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Saturday USD Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate The post Trade Zone Week Ahead with Boris Schlossberg (BK Forex): 28th February – 4th March appeared first on Eightcap.
Reviewing Bitcoin (BTC), Ripple (XRP) And Ether (ETH)

Reviewing Bitcoin (BTC), Ripple (XRP) And Ether (ETH)

Jason Sen Jason Sen 28.02.2022 08:36
Bitcoin doing very little after holding 300 pips above my next target of 34000. Ripple trying a break above 7270/7370 for a buy signal targeting 7740/7800. Ethereum tests resistance at 2790/2810. Shorts need stops above 2870. A break higher is a buy signal. Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis Bitcoin beat first resistance at 36300/400 to test second resistance at 39400/450 but struggling here. Bulls need a break above 40000 to target the 500 day moving average at 42000/200. Unlikely but if we continue higher look for strong resistance at 44100/400. Holding second resistance at 39400/450 targets 38000/37800. If we continue lower look for 36400/36000 & probably as far as 34400/34000. Do not be surprised to see a test of very strong support at 100 week moving average at 33000/800 (today's value). Ripple unexpectedly beat strong resistance at 7270/7370 for a buy signal targeting 7740/7800. If we continue higher look for quite strong resistance at 8000/8100. Shorts need stops above 8200 for a buy signal. Minor support at 7300/7280 but below here can target targets 7090/70, perhaps as far as support at 6890/6870. Ethereum runs as far as resistance at 2790/2810. A high for the weekend possible here but shorts need stops above 2870. A break higher is a buy signal targeting 2900/2920 & probably resistance at 3025/55. Strong support from 2660 down to 2560 should now hold the downside. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
What's The Future Of Bitcoin (BTC) Price In Times Of Sanctions?

What's The Future Of Bitcoin (BTC) Price In Times Of Sanctions?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 28.02.2022 16:02
Bitcoin price is behaving very well this stormy Monday morning as global markets are under pressure from sanctions against Russia. BTC sees elevated interest as people in Russia dive into Bitcoin as an alternative method of payment. Expect this interest to add to more popularity for Bitcoin as long as the current sanctions are imposed on Russia and its ruble. Bitcoin (BTC) is holding it together all-in-all quite well as price action dipped lower over the weekend but is back up for the day as Bitcoin sees an uptick in demand at the start of the week. That demand comes from Russian people using Bitcoin as an alternative method of payment as the local currency has devalued considerably, and several sanctions are making it impossible to use FX alternatives. With this renewed interest, expect to see BTC price action rise towards $39,780, holding a 10% profit potential. Bitcoin regains the needed attention it deserves Over the weekend, price action got rejected to the downside and saw a 7% devaluation. Yet with the introduction of several sanctions onRussia, significant demand is being seen for Bitcoin as Russians seek alternative payment methods as their own currency has devalued sharply by 20% on Monday morning, and foreign currencies are forbidden as a form of payment. This is the perfect background for Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies to get renewed positive attention. Several Russians will be opening a crypto wallet and buying into Bitcoin price action, which could propel price action towards $39,780 in the first phase.once Bitcoin becomes the standard form of payment in Russia, and as the Relative Strength Index still has plenty of room to go, expect to see a further move to the upside, hitting $41,756 in the near term. BTC/USD daily chart Depending on the current peace talks underway this afternoon between Russia and Ukraine, expect to see a possible dip back towards $38,073 or even $36,709 as the supportive baseline in these past few days. Should the situation deteriorate again and see renewed attacks – and even the use of Russian nuclear weapons – expect to see a sharp nosedive move towards $32,650, nearing the distribution zone from a few months ago. With that move, the Relative Strength Index will have entered the oversold area, however, suggesting an increased likelihood of an eventual recovery.
Crypto Prices Rise: On Monday BTC Added 10.6%, Ether (ETH) Increased By 7.9%, XRP Gained 6.3%, Terra (LUNA) Added 15.3%

Crypto Prices Rise: On Monday BTC Added 10.6%, Ether (ETH) Increased By 7.9%, XRP Gained 6.3%, Terra (LUNA) Added 15.3%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 01.03.2022 08:31
Bitcoin made a powerful leap up after assurances from the owners of the largest crypto exchanges, Binance, Kraken, KuCoin and AAX, that they do not intend to block the funds of individual Russians. However, the head of Kraken warned that they would abide by the regulator's decision if it comes.Overnight, the United States noted that they would stop attempts to use cryptocurrencies to circumvent personal sanctions. So, retail clients of large crypto exchanges are not yet afraid for their funds. This probably explains the latest growth momentum.Technically, Bitcoin broke through the upper limit of the four-month descending channel at the close of the month. Moderate optimism of Asian and US indices is also on the side of buyers.February was confirmed to be a growing month for bitcoin. However, March is not so favourable. Over the past 11 years, BTC ended this month with growth only in two cases.Disabling Russia from SWIFT will have a positive impact on the cryptocurrency market, says Jiang Zhuer, CEO of the BTC.TOP pool. In his opinion, Russia can use various methods to circumvent restrictions, including digital assets, to make payments. Bank of America does not see the prerequisites for a large-scale crypto winter, as evidenced by the dynamics of the movement of cryptocurrencies between private and exchange wallets. The level of acceptance of crypto assets by users is also growing, as well as the activity of developers.Bitcoin jumped 10.8% on Monday to $41,600, the highest gain in five months. On Tuesday morning, the momentum continued with a jump to $44,000 at the start of the day. At the time of writing, prices have stabilized around $43,200. Ethereum added 7.9%, while other top-ten altcoins rose from 6.3% (XRP) to 15.3 % (Terra).The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, grew by 11% over the day, to $1.9 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index has risen to 43% due to the smaller strengthening of altcoins.The crypto-currency fear and greed index soared 31 points to 51 on the day, moving out of fear into neutral territory.Although Bitcoin showed negative dynamics for most of the month, the shock growth at the end of it allowed BTC to end February with strengthening (+8.6%) after three months of decline.
What to do with your free capital in Russia

What to do with your free capital in Russia

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 01.03.2022 13:30
The main question that ruble traders ask themselves is whether the Central Bank managed to prevent a collapse in the exchange rate? At the moment, the euro is officially worth 104.4, and the dollar is 93.5.According to a leading analyst at FxPro, the ruble is recovering from the second shock wave that hit on Monday, when the Central Bank was unable to use foreign exchange reserves to stabilize the exchange rate. The dollar and the euro declined somewhat, but these levels still can hardly be called sustainable. An increase in the interest rate has a relatively long-term effect, while a liquidity crisis affects quotes "here and now".A steady reversal to growth in the Russian currency should be expected no earlier than when we receive reliable signals from the EU and the US. Until then, downward impulses may alternate with relatively short pullback periods. In our opinion, some stabilization of the exchange rate may occur in the range of 100-110 since this is a low enough level for traders to start picking up the ruble in the short term. Of course, this is only if we exclude the scenario of further tightening of sanctions.There is another issue that worries the consumers who are now in Russia. We are talking, among other things, about foreign citizens who came to Russia to do business or for personal reasons. Many of them have free balances in the region of 100 thousand rubbles in their bank accounts. As a rule, businesspeople short-term invest capital or acquire their own currency. The question arises of what to do with this capital now.In our opinion, it is better to save free money for force majeure, since in the current circumstances, it is worth increasing the capital and abandoning all unplanned purchases. If you are in Russia, then it is better to keep your savings in rubbles since it is not profitable to buy currency in banks now, as the exchange rate difference is too large.Of course, in the coming weeks and months, equipment, and all imported goods in the territory of the Russian Federation will rise in price significantly. At the same time, the value of cash soon may manifest itself more than ever. This is confirmed by queues at ATMs and multiple increases in cash in the hands of Russians.Many right now are looking towards buying a new car from a showroom with the prospect of selling it in a few months at a higher price (considering the sanctions).If your capital is even larger, it perhaps remains only to wait since the withdrawal to foreign accounts is limited. Thus, Russian residents will not be able to credit foreign currency to their accounts and deposits in foreign banks and brokers. The ban takes effect today.
Told You, Risk On

Told You, Risk On

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 01.03.2022 15:45
S&P 500 erased opening downside, not unexpectedly. Markets say we‘ve turned the corner, and while the medium-term correction isn‘t over, we‘re going higher for now. The tired performance in credit markets suggests that the pace of the upswing would indeed likely slow, but the dips are being bought – even the 4,300 overnight level held unchallenged.VIX is slowly calming down, and it wouldn‘t be a one-way ride. I hate to say it, but we‘re trading closer to the more complacent end of the volatility spectrum – that‘s though in line with my assumption of toned down price appreciation expectations that I discussed on Sunday and yesterday:(…) While we made local lows on Thursday after all, the upside momentum is likely to slow down next – this week would bring a consolidation within a very headline sensitive environment. It‘s looking good for the bulls at the moment – till the dynamic of events beyond markets changes.Inflation isn‘t wavering, and I‘m not looking for its meaningful deceleration given the events since Thursday, no. Friday is likely to mark a buying opportunity beyond oil and copper – these longs have very good prospects. Another part of the S&P 500 upswing explanation were the still fine fresh orders data – while the real economy has noticeably decelerated (and Q1 GDP growth would be underwhelming), solid figures would return in the latter quarters of 2022. That‘s also behind the gold downswing on Friday, which hadn‘t been confirmed by the miners – the very bright future ahead for precious metals is undisputable. And the same goes for crude oil as oil stocks foretell – the fresh long crude trade together with long S&P 500 one, are both solidly in the black already.Precious metals have found a floor, and aren‘t selling off either. In fact, they are looking at a great week ahead, and the same goes for crude oil followed to a lesser degree by copper. Weekend developments on the financial front triggered a rush into cryptos, and the bullish prospects I presented yesterday, are coming to fruition.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookDaily S&P 500 consolidation as the bulls did shake off the opening setback rather easily – and the same goes for the late session trip approaching 4,310s. Expecting more volatility of the current flavor, and higher prices then.Credit MarketsHYG managed to close above Friday‘s values, and the overall bond market strength bodes well for risk appetite ahead. Let‘s consolidate first, and march higher later.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are consolidating the high ground gained, miners aren‘t yielding, and silver weakness yesterday actually bodes well for the very short term. Launching pad before the next upleg.Crude OilCrude oil bears have a hard time from keeping black gold below $100. The table is clearly set for further gains – the chart can be hardly more bullish.CopperCopper is a laggard, but will still participate in the upswing. Its current underperformance as highlighten by yesterday‘s downswing, is a bit too odd, i.e. bound to be reversed.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto bulls were indeed the stronger party, and similarly to gold, it‘s hard to imagine a deep dive coming to frution. I‘m looking for the safety trade to be be ebbing and flowing, now with some crypto participation sprinkled on top.SummaryS&P 500 turnaround goes on, and we‘re undergoing a consolidation that‘s as calm as can be given the recent volatility. Credit markets and the dollar though continue favoring the paper asset bulls now, but their gains would pale in comparison with select commodities such as oil and gold‘s newfound floor. Even agrifoods look to be sold down a bit too hard, and I‘m not looking for them to be languishing next as much as they have been over the last two trading days. Cryptos upswing highlights the present global uncertainties faced – as I have written on Thursday that the world has changed, the same applies for weekend banking events being reflected in the markets yesterday.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Price Of Gold (XAUUSD) Will Be Supported, But Probable Massive Sale Of Russian Gold Can Hinder The Rise

Price Of Gold (XAUUSD) Will Be Supported, But Probable Massive Sale Of Russian Gold Can Hinder The Rise

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 01.03.2022 16:01
  Russia underestimated Ukraine’s fierce defense. Instead of quick conquest, the war is still going on. The same applies to pulling the rope between gold bulls and bears. It was supposed to be a blitzkrieg. The plan was simple: within 72 hours Russian troops were to take control of Kyiv, stage a coup, overthrow the democratically elected Ukrainian authorities, and install a pro-Russian puppet government. Well, the blitzkrieg clearly failed. The war has been going on for five days already, and Kyiv (and other major cities) remains in Ukrainian hands, while the Russians suffer great losses. Indeed, the Ukrainians are fighting valiantly. The Kremlin apparently did not expect such high morale among the troops and civilians, as well as such excellent organization and preparation. Meanwhile, the morale among Russian soldiers is reported to be pathetically low, as they have no motivation to fight with culturally close Ukrainians (many of whom speak perfect Russian). The invaders are also poorly equipped, and the whole operation was logistically unprepared (as the assumption was a quick capitulation by Ukrainian forces and a speedy collapse of the government in Kyiv). Well, pride comes before a fall. What’s more, the West is united as never before (Germany did a historic U-turn in its foreign and energy policies) and has already imposed relatively heavy economic sanctions on Russia (including cutting off some of the country’s banks from SWIFT), and donated weapons to Ukraine. However – and unfortunately – the war is far from being ended. Military analysts expect a second wave of Russian troops that can break the resistance of the Ukrainians, who have fewer forces and cannot relieve the soldiers just like the other side. Indeed, satellite pictures show a large convoy of Russian forces near Kyiv. Russia is also gathering troops in Belarus and – sadly – started shelling residential quarters in Ukrainian cities. According to US intelligence, Belarusian soldiers could join Russian forces. The coming days will be crucial for the fate of the conflict.   Implications for Gold What does the war between Russia and Ukraine imply for the gold market? Well, initially, the conflict was supportive of gold prices. As the chart below shows, the price of gold (London Fix) soared to $1,936 on Thursday. However, the rally was very short-lived, as the very next day, gold prices fell to $1,885. Thus, gold’s performance looked like “buy the rumor, sell the news.” However, yesterday, the price of the yellow metal returned above $1,900, so some geopolitical risk premium may still be present in the gold market. Anyway, it seems that I was right in urging investors to focus on fundamentals and to not make long-term investments merely based on geopolitical risks, the impact of which is often only temporary. Having said that, gold may continue its bullish trend, at least for a while. After all, the war not only increases risk aversion, but it also improves gold’s fundamental outlook. First of all, the Fed is now less likely to raise the federal funds rate in March. It will probably still tighten its monetary policy, but in a less aggressive way. For example, the market odds of a 50-basis point hike decreased from 41.4% one week ago to 12.4% now. What’s more, we are observing increasing energy prices, which could increase inflation further. The combination of higher inflation and a less hawkish Fed should be fundamentally positive for gold prices, as it implies low real interest rates. On the other hand, gold may find itself under downward pressure from selling reserves to raise liquidity. I'm referring to the fact that the West has cut Russia off from the SWIFT system in part. In such a situation, Russia would have to sell part of its massive gold reserves, which could exert downward pressure on prices. Hence, the upcoming days may be quite volatile for the gold market. At the end of my article, I would like to point out that although the war in Ukraine entails implications for the precious metals market, it is mostly a humanitarian tragedy. My thoughts and prayers are with all the casualties of the conflict and their families. I hope that Ukraine will withstand the invasion and peace will return soon! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Will S&P 500 (SPX) Go Up? On Monday It Decreased By 0.24%

Will S&P 500 (SPX) Go Up? On Monday It Decreased By 0.24%

Paul Rejczak Paul Rejczak 01.03.2022 15:31
  The S&P 500 went sideways yesterday, as investors hesitated following the recent rally. Will the short-term uptrend resume? The broad stock market index lost 0.24% on Monday, after gaining 2.2% on Friday and 1.5% on Thursday. The sentiment improved following the Thursday’s rebound, but there’s still a lot of uncertainty following the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict news. On Thursday, the broad stock market reached the low of 4,114.65 and it was 704 points or 14.6% below the January 4 record high of 4,818.62. And yesterday it went closer to the 4,400 level. For now, it looks like an upward correction. However, it may also be a more meaningful reversal following a deep 15% correction from the early January record high. The market sharply reversed its short-term downtrend, but will it continue the advance? This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.2% lower and we may see some more volatility. The nearest important resistance level remains at 4,400 and the next resistance level is at 4,450-4,500. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,300-4,350, among others. The S&P 500 index broke slightly above the downward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract Remains Above the 4,300 Level Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. On Thursday it sold off after breaking below the 4,200 level. Since Friday it is trading along the 4,300 mark. We are still expecting an upward correction from the current levels (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index fluctuated following the recent rally yesterday. This morning it is expected to open 0.2% lower and we may see some further volatility. Obviously, the markets will continue to react to the Russia-Ukraine conflict news. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index bounced from the new low on Thursday after falling almost 15% from the early January record high. We are maintaining our speculative long position. We are expecting an upward correction from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Crude Oil (WTI) - USOIL Price Is Close 11-Year-High

Crude Oil (WTI) - USOIL Price Is Close 11-Year-High

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 02.03.2022 11:03
Today we’re taking a look at oil from a longer-term view after price briefly tested $111. We all know the driver for this month’s surge in the price of oil. Our question as price has started to move back to levels not seen since 2011 is how much further does it have to go? We have to start looking at the conflict in Europe and think has it started to be factored into price? Obviously today that answer could be no as we’ve seen over 11% added to USOUSD (WTI) this week. The reasons for this rally are not exactly like what we saw drive price in 2008. Yes, supply disruptions drove price and supply disruptions are a factor here, but this time it’s centred around Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. What happens if the two nations form a peace agreement or on a darker note what happens if Russia escalates the situation? De-escalation we would be looking for price to fall but on escalation, you would think that the rally would continue. Price-wise oil has reached heavy resistance formed back in 2011-2013. The ending diagonal that formed in this resistance actually sunk the last rally above $100. Price looks overextended at this point but the drivers of the rally can’t be discounted. We are looking to see if buyers can break and hold above $112 – $115. A hold above these points could start to set up a new shift in pricing. It could also set off further inflation worries and start to develop global growth worries which could alter current central bank plans. In the levels discussed we see solid supply. It will be a firm statement if buyers can get comfortable back above those levels. From there if dynamics stay supportive, anything could be possible. Traders will need to keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions to see if the drivers continue to feed demand. If things change and price fails to break $112-$115 we could see a fast pullback. The $80 area could be the first port of support. Oil Monthly Chart Chart source, Net Dania Finance chart Uncertainty presents volatility Currently, our margin levels remain unchanged across all instruments and we offer one of the best swap conditions on key instruments such as Gold. Make the most out of market movements right now with Eightcap. For more information on market updates and our swap rates, please contact our award-winning customer service team. The post CFD Update: Oil set to retest 2011 highs? appeared first on Eightcap.
Indices attempt to recover as investors remain concerned over escalating conflict

Indices attempt to recover as investors remain concerned over escalating conflict

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 02.03.2022 13:28
US indices are set to start today’s session lower as the conflict in Ukraine threatens supply chains and drives commodity prices higher. During yesterday’s trading session, the S&P 500 dropped 1.55%, Dow Jones moved 1.76% lower and Nasdaq declined 1.59% while the Russell 2000 dropped 1.93%. Intense shelling of Kharkiv was reported overnight and Russian attacks on residential areas and civilian buildings are becoming more frequent while the west continues to evaluate an escalation of sanctions, some of which have led to Sberbank, Russia's largest bank, informing that it will be shutting its European market business as it is no longer able to supply liquidity to its units in Europe. Despite some important data expected from the US, including the ADP employment report as well as the FED chair Powell testifying in congress, investors remain focused on further headlines and developments from the ongoing conflict in eastern europe which is sending shockwaves across markets. While negotiations are set to continue between the opposing forces, it remains to be seen if these will manage to and provide some relief Oil prices reach record levels despite strategic petroleum reserve releaseConcerns over possible disruptions on the oil market are sending Brent prices to the sky as WTI reached the highest level since 2013. Brent OIL is trading almost 60% year-to-date higher and it may not be over as the geopolitical tensions escalate and more companies continue to exit their shares in Russian energy companies with some of the most notable being BP and Shell. The release of strategic petroleum reserve release did little to ease upward pressure and OPEC+ is unlikely to decide on a bigger than 400,000 barrel hike today while traders also await the EIA petroleum report from the US, which is set to show an increase of 2.8 MB, after yesterday's API report indicated a 6.1 MB inventory draw. Unless the geopolitical situation begins to ease, or there are some major developments which would allow a noticeable increase in supply to reach the markets from elsewhere, we could be seeing a continuation of this trend that will ultimately have cascading effects across most asset classes and on consumer prices which are all related to energy prices.
Real Assets, Bonds and New Profits

Real Assets, Bonds and New Profits

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 02.03.2022 15:49
S&P 500 broke through 4,350s in what appears a back and forth consolidation, for now. Credit markets aren‘t leading to the downside – HYG merely corrected within the risk-on sentiment. Stocks and bonds are starting to live with the new realities, and aren‘t undergoing tectonic shifts either way no matter what‘s happening in the real world. Expect to see some chop not of the most volatile flavor next, and for the bulls to step in in the near future.What‘s most interesting about bonds now, is the relenting pressure on the Fed to raise rates – the 2-year yield is moving down noticeably, and that means much practical progress on fighting inflation can‘t be expected. Not that there was much to start with, but the expectations of the hawkish Fed talk turning into action, are being dialed back. The current geopolitical events provide a scene to which attention is fixated while inflation fires keep raging on with renewed vigor (beyond energies) – just as I was calling for a little deceleration in CPI towards the year end bringing it to probably 5-6%, this figure is starting to look too optimistic on the price stability front.Predictable consequence are strong appreciation days across the board in commodities and precious metals – let‘s enjoy the sizable open profits especially in oil and copper. I told you weeks ago that real assets are where to look for in portfolio gains – and even the modest S&P 500 long profits taken off the table yesterday, are taking my portfolio performance chart to fresh highs. I hope you‘ve been enjoying my calls, and are secure in the turmoil around. Way more profits are on the way, and I am not even discussing the lastest agrifoods calls concerning wheat and corn, for all the right reasons (just check out the key exporters overview)…Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThis time, the S&P 500 bulls didn‘t shake off the selling pressure – the broad retreat though smacks of temporary setback. As in that the direction to the downside hasn‘t been decided yet – I‘m looking for the buyers to dip their toes here.Credit MarketsHYG downswing didn‘t attract too many sellers, and was partially bought, which means that the pendulum is ready to shift (have a go at shifting) the other way now.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are doing just great, and can be counted on to extend gains. Remember about the rate raising reappreciation that I talked in the long opening part of today‘s analysis – at central banks, that‘s where to look financially.Crude OilCrude oil bears have been taken to the woodshed, except that not at all discreetly. Let‘s keep riding this bull that had brought great profits already, for some more – as I have learned, I was a lone voice calling for more upside before last week‘s events.CopperCopper is a laggard, but still taking part in the upswing. The prior underperformance which I took issue with yesterday, was indeed a bit too odd.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto bulls are consolidating well reasoned and deserved gains, and the circumstances don‘t favor a steep downswing really. The current tight range is likely to be resolved to the upside in due course.SummaryS&P 500 turnaround is not a rickety-free ride, but goes on at its own shaky pace. Stocks are likely to consolidate today as bonds turn a little more in the risk-on side, which reflects last but not least the looming reassessment of hawkish Fed policies. That‘s where the puck is (and will increasingly be even more so as Wayne Gretzky would say) financially, and I discussed that at length in the opening part of today‘s analysis – have a good look. Precious metals and commodities already know they won‘t be crushed by any new Paul Volcker. Enjoy the profitable rides presented !Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 22/2/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 22/2/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 02.03.2022 21:33
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 22/2/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 698 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in long positions by 1,377 contracts and an increase in short positions by 679 contracts. The increase in total net speculator positions occurred last week in the euro, the Australian dollar and the Japanese yen. The decline in total net positions occurred in the British pound, the New Zealand dollar, the Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.  Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, markets shifted into risk-off sentiment. From a currency perspective, this means that the euro, pound, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar could weaken. However, the situation is changing very quickly depending on various political statements. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators Date USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Feb 22, 2022 36084 59306 -5809 -84080 -11551 -63187 9253 -10987 Feb 15, 2022 35386 47581 2237 -86694 -9333 -66162 12170 -9715 Feb 08, 2022 33765 38842 -8545 -85741 -10366 -59148 14886 -9399 Feb 01, 2022 34571 29716 -23605 -79829 -11698 -60640 18264 -8239 Jan 25, 2022 36861 31560 -7763 -83273 -10773 -68273 12317 -8796 Jan 18, 2022 36434 24584 -247 -88454 -8331 -80879 7492 -10810 Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the end of this report. Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com The Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 22, 2022 696682 214195 154889 59306 -5365 -3704 -15429 11725 Bullish Feb 15, 2022 702047 217899 170318 47581 1949 -1074 -9813 8739 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 700098 218973 180131 38842 14667 5410 -3716 9126 Bullish Feb 01, 2022 685431 213563 183847 29716 2479 155 1999 -1844 Weak bullish Jan 25, 2022 682952 213408 181848 31560 -8930 1507 -5469 6976 Bullish Jan 18, 2022 691882 211901 187317 24584 9589 7540 -11039 18579 Bullish         Total change 14389 9834 -43467 53301     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 59 306 contracts last week, up by 11 725 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 3,704 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 15,429 contracts. Total net positions have increased by 53,301 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to the fact that large speculators ended 43,467 short positions and addded 9,834 long positions.  This data suggests continued bullish sentiment for the euro. Open interest, which fell by 5,465 contracts in the past week, shows that the downward movement that occurred in the euro last week was not supported by the volume and therefore it was a weak decline as there were fewer bearish traders in the market.  The euro weakened strongly last week under the influence of the war in Ukraine and reached strong support at 1.1120. Long-term resistance: 1.1280 – 1.1300. Next resistance is near 1.1370 – 1.1400. Support: 1.1100-1.1140   The British pound   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 22, 2022 188443 42249 48058 -5809 -6859 -7902 144 -8046 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 195302 50151 47914 2237 -2646 5442 -5340 10782 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 197948 44709 53254 -8545 13941 15112 52 15060 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 184007 29597 53202 -23605 1967 -7069 8773 -15842 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 182040 36666 44429 -7763 -1194 -3094 4422 -7516 Bearish Jan 18, 2022 183234 39760 40007 -247 -17259 9254 -19665 28919 Weak bearish         Total Change -12050 11743 -11614 23357     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week amounted to - 5,809 contracts, down by 8,046 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 7,902 contracts and an increase in short positions by 144 contracts. Total net positions have increased by 23,357 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators exiting 11,614 short positions and adding 11,743 long positions. The decline in total net positions of large speculators into negative territory indicates bearish sentiment for the pound. Open interest, which fell by 6,859 contracts last week, indicates that the decline in the pound that occurred last week was not supported by volume and was therefore weak. The pound, just as the euro, might be negatively impacted by risk-off sentiment which could then send the pound towards support which is at 1.3300 or possibly 1.3200. Long-term resistance: 1.3620-1.3640.  Next resistance is near 1.3680 – 1.3750. The resistance is also in the zone 1.3490 – 1.3520. Support is near 1.3270 – 1.3300 and then mainly in the zone 1.3200.     The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 22, 2022 192579 11553 95633 -84080 1 -139 -2753 2614 Bullish Feb 15, 2022 192578 11692 98386 -86694 -3825 -5631 -4678 -953 Bearish Feb 08, 2022 196403 17323 103064 -85741 -510 -1512 4400 -5912 Bearish Feb 01, 2022 196913 18835 98664 -79829 6893 3714 270 3444 Weak bearish Jan 25, 2022 190020 15121 98394 -83273 8884 6070 889 5181 Weak bearish Jan 18, 2022 181136 9051 97505 -88454 -4317 -3332 -6364 3032 Weak bearish         Total Change 7126 -830 -8236 7406     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1 Total net speculator positions last week reached -84,080 contracts, up 2,614 contracts from the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 139 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 2,753 contracts. This data suggests a weakening of the bearish sentiment for the Australian dollar, which is confirmed by the downtrend. Total net positions have increased by 7,406 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators exiting 8,236 short contracts while exiting 830 long contracts. However, there was an increase in open interest of 1 contract last week. This means that the upward movement that occurred last week was weak in terms of volume because new money did not flow into the market. The Australian dollar is very sensitive to the international geopolitical situation. In the event of geopolitical instability, it can usually be expected to weaken especially in the AUDUSD pair and also the AUDJPY. However, last week the Australian dollar surprisingly strengthened and approached the resistance band. Long-term resistance: 0.7270-0.7310                                                                                                            Long-term support: 0.7085-0.7120.  A strong support is near 0.6960 – 0.6990.   The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 22, 2022 56636 17343 28894 -11551 -7469 -7580 -5362 -2218 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 64105 24923 34256 -9333 9228 7755 6722 1033 Weak bearish Feb 08, 2022 54877 17168 27534 -10366 -3590 -2037 -3369 1332 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 58467 19205 30903 -11698 5151 3257 4182 -925 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 53316 15948 26721 -10773 8589 4336 6778 -2442 Bearish Jan 18, 2022 44727 11612 19943 -8331 2661 652 379 273 Weak bearish         Total Change 14570 6383 9330 -2947     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached a negative value last week - 11,551 contracts, having fallen by 2,218 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 7,580 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 7,580 contracts. This data suggests that the bearish sentiment on the NZ dollar continues. Total net positions have declined by 2,947 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators adding 9,330 short positions and adding 6,383 long positions. Last week, open interest fell significantly by 7,469 contracts. Therefore, the upward movement in NZDUSD that occurred last week is not supported by volume and therefore the move was weak. The strengthening of the NZDUSD that occurred last week is somewhat surprising given the geopolitical tensions in Ukraine. This upward movement is forming a channel pattern, which may be a correction in the current downtrend trend that we can see on the daily or weekly chart. Long-term resistance: 0.6850 – 0.6890 Long-term support: 0.6590-0.6600 and the next support is at 0.6500 – 0.6530.   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
Stocks Want to Go Higher Despite Ukraine News

Stocks Want to Go Higher Despite Ukraine News

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 03.03.2022 15:34
The S&P 500 index topped the 4,400 level yesterday despite the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict news. Will the uptrend continue?The broad stock market index gained 1.86% on Wednesday following its Tuesday’s decline of 1.6%, as it fluctuated following last week’s rebound from the new medium-term low of 4,114.65. It was 704 points or 14.6% below the January 4 record high of 4,818.62. So the sentiment improved recently, but there’s still a lot of uncertainty concerning the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict news. Yesterday the index went slightly above the 4,400 level and it was the highest since Feb. 17.For now, it looks like an upward correction. However, it may also be a more meaningful reversal following a deep 15% correction from the early January record high. This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.6% higher following better-than-expected Unemployment Claims number release. However, we may see some more volatility.The nearest important resistance level remains at 4,400 and the next resistance level is at 4,450-4,500. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,300-4,350, among others. The S&P 500 index broke above the downward trend line recently, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):Futures Contract Trades Along the Local HighsLet’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. On Thursday it sold off after breaking below the 4,200 level. And since Friday it was trading along the 4,300 mark. This morning it is trading along the local highs.We are maintaining our profitable long position, as we are still expecting an upward correction from the current levels (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com):ConclusionThe S&P 500 index will likely open 0.6% higher this morning. We may see more short-term fluctuations and obviously, the markets will continue to react to the Russia-Ukraine conflict news.Here’s the breakdown:The S&P 500 index bounced from the new low on Thursday after falling almost 15% from the early January record high.We are maintaining our profitable long position.We are expecting an upward correction from the current levels.Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Gold Miners – Biggest Losers? That’s What Oil Says

Gold Miners – Biggest Losers? That’s What Oil Says

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 03.03.2022 15:44
After the war-driven gold rally, oil is starting to outperform. History between these two has already shown that someone may suffer. Many suggest: gold miners.The precious metals corrected some of their gains yesterday, but overall, not much changed in them. However, quite a lot happened in crude oil, and in today’s analysis we’ll focus on what it implies for the precious metals market and, in particular – for mining stocks.As you may have noticed, crude oil shot up recently in a spectacular manner. This seems normal, as it’s a market with rather inflexible supply and demand, so disruptions in supply or threats thereof can impact the price in a substantial way. With Russia as one of the biggest crude oil producers, its invasion of Ukraine, and a number of sanctions imposed on the attacking country (some of them involving oil directly), it’s natural that crude oil reacts in a certain manner. The concern-based rally in gold is also understandable.However, the relationship between wars, concerns, and prices of assets is not as straightforward as “there’s a war, so gold and crude oil will go up.” In order to learn more about this relationship, let’s examine the most similar situation in recent history to the current one, when oil supplies were at stake.The war that I’m mentioning is the one between Iraq and the U.S. that started almost 20 years ago. Let’s see what happened in gold, oil, and gold stocks at that time.The most interesting thing is that when the war officially started, the above-mentioned markets were already after a decline. However, that’s not that odd, when one considers the fact that back then, the tensions were building for a long time, and it was relatively clear in advance that the U.S. attack was going to happen. This time, Russia claimed that it wouldn’t attack until the very last minute before the invasion.The point here, however, is that the markets rallied while the uncertainty and concerns were building up, and then declined when the situation was known and “stable.” I don’t mean that “war” was seen as stable, but rather that the outcome and how it affected the markets was rather obvious.The other point is the specific way in which all three markets reacted to the war and the timing thereof.Gold stocks rallied initially, but then were not that eager to follow gold higher, but that’s something that’s universal in the final stages of most rallies in the precious metals market. What’s most interesting here is that there was a time when crude oil rallied substantially, while gold was already declining.Let me emphasize that once again: gold topped first, and then it underperformed while crude oil continued to soar substantially.Fast forward to the current situation. What has happened recently?Gold moved above $1,970 (crude oil peaked at $100.54 at that time), and then it declined heavily. It’s now trying to move back to this intraday high, but it was not able to do so. At the moment of writing these words, gold is trading at about $1,930, while crude oil is trading at about $114.In other words, while gold declined by $30, crude oil rallied by about $14. That’s a repeat of what we saw in 2003!What happened next in 2003? Gold declined, and the moment when crude oil started to visibly outperform gold was also the beginning of a big decline in gold stocks.That makes perfect sense on the fundamental level too. Gold miners’ share prices depend on their profits (just like it’s the case with any other company). Crude oil at higher levels means higher costs for the miners (the machinery has to be fueled, the equipment has to be transported, etc.). When costs (crude oil could be viewed as a proxy for them) are rising faster than revenues (gold could be viewed as a proxy for them), miners’ profits appear to be in danger; and investors don’t like this kind of danger, so they sell shares. Of course, there are many more factors that need to be taken into account, but I just wanted to emphasize one way in which the above-mentioned technical phenomenon is justified. The above doesn’t apply to silver as it’s a commodity, but it does apply to silver stocks.Back in 2004, gold stocks wiped out their entire war-concern-based rally, and the biggest part of the decline took just a bit more than a month. Let’s remember that back then, gold stocks were in a very strong medium- and long-term uptrend. Right now, mining stocks remain in a medium-term downtrend, so their decline could be bigger – they could give away their war-concern-based gains and then decline much more.Mining stocks are not declining profoundly yet, but let’s keep in mind that history rhymes – it doesn’t repeat to the letter. As I emphasized previously today, back in 2003 and 2002, the tensions were building for a longer time and it was relatively clear in advance that the U.S. attack was going to happen. This time, Russia claimed that it wouldn’t attack until the very last minute before the invasion. Consequently, the “we have to act now” is still likely to be present, and the dust hasn’t settled yet – everything appears to be unclear, and thus the markets are not returning to their previous trends. Yet.However, as history shows, that is likely to happen. Either immediately, or shortly, as crude oil is already outperforming gold.Investing and trading are difficult. If it was easy, most people would be making money – and they’re not. Right now, it’s most difficult to ignore the urge to “run for cover” if you physically don’t have to. The markets move on “buy the rumor and sell the fact.” This repeats over and over again in many (all?) markets, and we have direct analogies to similar situations in gold itself. Junior miners are likely to decline the most, also based on the massive declines that are likely to take place (in fact, they have already started) in the stock markets.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Surging Commodities

Surging Commodities

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 03.03.2022 15:55
S&P 500 returned above 4,350s as credit markets indeed weren‘t leading to the downside. Consolidation now followed by more upside, that‘s the most likely scenario next. Yesterday‘s risk-on turn was reflected also in value rising more than tech. Anyway, the Nasdaq upswing is a good omen for the bulls in light of the TLT downswing – Treasuries are bucking the Powell newfound rate raising hesitation – inflation ambiguity is back. The yield curve is still compressing, and the pressure on the Fed to act, goes on – looking at where real asset prices are now, it had been indeed unreasonable to expect inflation to slow down meaningfully. Told you so – as I have written yesterday:(…) What‘s most interesting about bonds now, is the relenting pressure on the Fed to raise rates – the 2-year yield is moving down noticeably, and that means much practical progress on fighting inflation can‘t be expected. Not that there was much to start with, but the expectations of the hawkish Fed talk turning into action, are being dialed back. The current geopolitical events provide a scene to which attention is fixated while inflation fires keep raging on with renewed vigor (beyond energies) – just as I was calling for a little deceleration in CPI towards the year end bringing it to probably 5-6%, this figure is starting to look too optimistic on the price stability front.Predictable consequence are strong appreciation days across the board in commodities and precious metals. – let‘s enjoy the sizable open profits especially in oil and copper. I told you weeks ago that real assets are where to look for in portfolio gains – and even the modest S&P 500 long profits taken off the table yesterday, are taking my portfolio performance chart to fresh highs. Crude oil keeps rising as if there‘s no tomorrow, copper is joining in, agrifoods are on fire – and precious metals continue being very well bid. Cryptos aren‘t selling off either. Anyway, this is the time of real assets...Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls are back, and I‘m looking for consolidation around these levels. The very short-term direction isn‘t totally clear, but appears favoring the bulls unless corporate junk bonds crater. Not too likely.Credit MarketsHYG performance shows rising risk appetite, but the waning volume is a sign of caution for today. Unless LQD and TLT rise as well, HYG looks short-term stretched, therefore I‘m looking for consolidation today.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are doing great, and they merely corrected yesterday – both gold and silver can be counted on to extend gains if you look at the miners‘ message. As the prospects of vigorous Fed action gets dialed back, they stand to benefit even more.Crude OilCrude oil surge is both justified and unprecedented – and oil stocks aren‘t weakening. It looks like we would consolidate in the volatile range around $110 next.CopperCopper is joining in the upswing increasingly more, and the buyer‘s return before the close looks sufficient to maintain upside momentum that had been questioned earlier in the day. The break higher out of the long consolidation, is approaching.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto buyers are consolidating well deserved gains, and the bullish flag is being formed. The sellers are nowhere to be seen at the moment – I‘m still looking for the current tight range to be resolved to the upside next.SummaryS&P 500 has reached a short-term resistance, which would be overcome only should bonds give their blessing. It‘s likely these would confirm the risk-on turn, but HYG looks a bit too extended – its consolidation of high ground gained, could slow the stock bulls somewhat. The risk appetite and „rush to safety“ in commodities and precious metals goes on, more or less squeezing select assets such as crude oil. The CRB Index upswing is though of the orderly and broad advance flavor, and does reflect the prospects of inflation remaining elevated for longer than foreseen by the mainstream.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
S&P 500 At Tipping Point To Start  A Bear Market And What You Need To See

S&P 500 At Tipping Point To Start A Bear Market And What You Need To See

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 03.03.2022 21:38
Is a bear market on the way? My research suggests the downward sloping trend line (LIGHT ORANGE in the Daily/Weekly SPY chart below) may continue to act as solid resistance – possibly prompting a further breakdown in the markets for US major indexes.As we've seen recently, news and other unexpected events prompt very large price volatility events in the US major indexes. For example, the VIX recently rose above 30 again, which shows volatility levels are currently 3x higher than normal levels.Increased Volatility & The Start Of An Excess Phase Peak Should Be A Clear WarningThis increased volatility in the markets, coupled with the increased fear of the US Fed and the global unknowns (Ukraine, China, Debt Levels, and others), may be just enough pressure to crush any upside price trends over the next few months. Technically, my research suggests the $445 to $450 level is critical resistance. The SPY must climb above these levels to have any chance of moving higher.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! Unless the US markets find some new support and attempt to rally back towards recent highs, an “Excess Phase Peak” pattern will likely continue to unfold throughout 2022. This unique price pattern appears to have already reached a Phase 2 or Phase 3 setup. Please take a look at this Weekly GE example of an Excess Phase Peak pattern and how it transitions through Phase 1 through Phase 4 before entering an extended Bearish price trend.Read this research article about Excess Phase Peaks: HOW TO SPOT THEN END OF AN EXCESS PHASE - PART 2SPY May Already Be In A Phase 4 Excess Peak PhaseThis Daily SPY chart highlights my analysis, showing the major downward sloping trend line, the Middle Resistance Zone, and the lower Support Zone. Combined, these are acting as a “Wedge” for price over the past few weeks – tightening into an Apex near $435~440.If the US major indexes attempt to break this downward price trend, then the price must attempt to move solidly above this downward sloping price channel and try to rally back into the Resistance Zone (near $445~$450). Unless that happens, the price will likely transition into a deeper downward price move, attempting to break below recent lows, near $410, and possibly quickly moving down to the $360 level.SPY Weekly Chart Shows Consolidation Near $435 – Possibly Starting A Phase 4 Excess PeakTraders should stay keenly aware of the risks associated with the broad US and global market decline as the Ukraine war, and other unknowns continue to elevate fear and concerns related to the global economy. In my opinion, with the current excess global debt levels, extended speculative market bubbles, and the continued commodity price rally, we may be starting to transition away from an extended growth phase and into a deeper depreciation cycle phase.My research suggests we entered a new Depreciation cycle phase in late 2019 and are already more than 25 months into a potential 9.5-year global Depreciation cycle. What comes next should not surprise anyone.Read this article about Depreciation Cycle Phases: HOW TO INTERPRET & PROFIT FROM THE RISKS OF A DEPRECIATION CYCLE Traders should stay keenly focused on market risks and weaknesses. I expected the conflict in Ukraine to have been priced into the US markets over the past 7+ days. However, I believe the markets were unprepared for this scale or invasion and will attempt to settle fair stock price valuation levels as the conflict continues. This is not the same US/Global market Bullish trend we've become used to trading over the past 5+ years. Looking Forward - preparing for a possible Bear marketMarket dynamics and trends are changing from what we have experienced over the past 40 years for stocks and bonds. The 60/40 portfolio is costing you money now. Traders need an edge to stay ahead of these markets trends and to protect and profit from big trends.The only way to navigate the financial markets safely, no matter the direction, is through technical analysis. By following assets and money flows, we identify trend changes and move our capital into whatever index, sector, industry, bond, commodity, country, and even currency ETF. By following the money, you become part of new emerging trends and can profit during weak stock or bond conditions.Want Trading Strategies that Will Help You To Navigate Current Market Trends?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 
Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) And Ripple (XRP) - A Technical Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) And Ripple (XRP) - A Technical Analysis

Jason Sen Jason Sen 04.03.2022 10:01
Bitcoin could not beat the 100 day moving average at 45000 to keep the bears in control for now with shorts at strong resistance at 44100/400 working perfectly on the slide as far as as far as support at 40800/400. Ripple shorts at strong resistance at 8000/8100 certainly worked perfectly this week, with a high for the week here & a slide to support at 7300/7280 for profit taking today. Ethereum we wrote: Shorts at at 3025/55 target minor support at 2870/40 & perhaps as far as 2750/2700 before the weekend. Targets all hit on the upside & downside so far this week. Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis Bitcoin shorts at strong resistance at 44100/400 target 42000/41800 (hit) & now support at 40800/400 for profit taking. Longs could be risky in the bear trend, but if you try, stop below 40000 (& look for a target of 42800). However if we continue lower look for 39300/200 & 38000/37700. Minor resistance at 42700/900 then strong resistance at 44100/400. Shorts need stops above 45000 & a break above the February high at 45800 would therefore be a strong buy signal with another 1000 pips gain easily possible. Ripple shorts at strong resistance at 8000/8100 work perfectly on the slide as far as support at 7300/7280 for some profit taking. Below here can target 7090/70, perhaps as far as support at 6890/6870. Gains are likely to be limited in the bear trend with resistance at 7600/7700 & again at 8000/8100. Shorts need stops above 8200 for a buy signal initially targeting 8400, 8500 & perhaps as far as the 2 week high at 8600. Ethereum shorts at at 3025/55 worked perfectly targeting minor support at 2870/40 & as far as 2750/2700 before the weekend for some profit taking. However further losses look likely eventually to strong support from 2660 down to 2560 which should now hold the downside again. Gains are likely to be limited in the bear trend with resistance at 2790/2810 & again at resistance at 3025/55 with a high for the day exactly here. A break above 3100 retests the February high at 3200/3280. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Sentiment turns as the U.S. looks to regulate cryptos

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Sentiment turns as the U.S. looks to regulate cryptos

FXStreet News FXStreet News 03.03.2022 16:07
Bitcoin price sees its gains being pared back a bit after more talks on regulatory crackdown out of U.S. on cryptocurrencies. Ethereum price slips further away from $3,018 after Powell's speech before Congress talked about regulating cryptocurrencies. XRP price sideways, awaiting a catalyst to go either way. Cryptocurrencies are facing some headwinds – whilst they have enjoyed more inflows of late as both Ukrainian and Russian inhabitants reverted to cryptocurrencies as an alternative means of payment to avoid sanctions – there are signs this loophole will soon be closed. During Biden's State of the Union speech the president asked for a crackdown on cryptocurrencies to close the escape route for wealthy Russians. FED chair Powell added fuel to the fire by saying that he would welcome further regulation to monitor and control cryptocurrencies better. The result is that these comments have triggered some nervousness in all significant cryptocurrency pairs. Bitcoin bulls are rejected at $44,088 with the risk of sliding back to $42,000 Bitcoin (BTC) price saw a full paring back of the losses accumulated during the Russian invasion as cryptocurrencies saw renewed cash inflow from both Russians and Ukrainians looking for alternative means of payment after both central banks had put in cash withdrawal restrictions. As Bitcoin looked to be poised for another leg higher, both Biden and Powell created some headwinds by urging for more regulatory crackdown, as it is emerging that cryptocurrencies are undermining sanctions on Russia. With this renewed negative attention towards cryptocurrencies, investors are being quick to book profits and, in the process, are pushing BTC price action to the downside. BTC price saw an initial rejection at $45,261, a level which coincides with the low of December 17, and as such triggered some profit-taking. As profit-taking continues bulls are faced with another rejection at $44,088, a level that goes back to August 06. Below that, the search for support finds nothing until $41,756 or the psychological $42,000 level near the baseline of a bearish triangle we had marked up earlier. BTC/USD daily chart As more talks are underway, a breakthrough could still happen at any moment. If that happened, it would mean that bears would fail in their attempt to squeeze out bulls and get stopped out themselves once the price pierced through $44,088 to the upside. That move would even accelerate after shooting through $45,261, with a quick rally to $48,760 and, from there, positioning Bitcoin to pop back above $50,000 next week. Ethereum bulls are defending the 55-day SMA, but support is wearing thin Ethereum (ETH) price takes another step back today after more negative connotations from FED Chair Powell in the house hearing before Congress. Next to committing to more rate hikes, Powell also drilled down on cryptocurrencies and called them a risk that needs to be prioritised with regulations. That puts greater regulation for cryptocurrencies at the top of the congressional agenda – after Ukraine, and inland inflation had pushed that bullet point further down the list. For the moment, ETH sees bulls defending the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,880. Although it looks good to hold for now, in the past, the 55-day SMA has not built a solid reputation of being well respected. So expect a possible breach once the US session kicks in and Powell makes more negative comments on cryptocurrencies in his second day of congressional hearings, which will likely push ETH price below the 55-day SMA at $2,880, through the monthly pivot at $2,835, and down to a possible endpoint at around $2,695. ETH/USD daily chart As the situation in Russia further deteriorates with more sanctions on the shelf, residents will be forced even more to flee into cryptocurrencies to avoid any repercussions from the financial sanctions imposed. That would mean broad flux inflow throughout the coming days, with ETH price action popping above $3,018, and in the process breaking the double top of rejection from Tuesday and Wednesday. To the upside, that could see $3,391 for a test as the inflow will outweigh any bearish attempts from short sellers. XRP price testing monthly pivot to the downside as dollar strength weighs Ripple's (XRP) price is under pressure to the downside as bears are putting in their effort to break the new monthly pivot at $0.76. Bears are getting help from the other side of the asset pair by the dollar’s strength weighing on price action for a second consecutive day. With Ukraine's current tension and possible retaliation from Russia against the West, safe havens are broadly bid with the Greenback on the front foot and thus outpacing XRP’s valuation, resulting in a move lower. Expect XRP price to see an accelerated move once the monthly pivot at $0.76 gives way. With not much in the way, the road is open to drop to $0.62, with $0.70 and $0.68 as possible breaking off points where bears could see some profit-taking and attempts by bulls to halt the downturn. But the trifecta of the negative comments from both Biden and Powell joined with the safe-haven bid is too big of a force to withstand, making $0.62 almost inevitable in the coming hours or trading days. XRP/USD daily chart The only event that could turn this around is if a catalyst were to remove the safe-haven bid. That could come with a resolution of the current tension in Ukraine or surrender of the Russian army of some sort. In such an outcome, the safe-haven bid would evaporate, followed by a massive risk-on flow which would see XRP pop above $0.78 and rally to $0.88, taking out $0.84 along the way to the upside.
Fighting Continues: Good for Ukraine... And Gold

Fighting Continues: Good for Ukraine... And Gold

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 03.03.2022 16:10
  Kherson fell, but Ukrainians are still fighting fiercely. In the face of war, gold also shows courage – to move steadily up. The battle of Ukraine is still going on. Russian troops took control of Kherson, a city of about 300,000 in the south of Ukraine, but other main cities haven’t been captured yet. Ukrainian soldiers even managed to conduct some counter-offensive actions near the country’s capital. There is a large Russian column advancing on Kyiv, but its progress has been very slow over the last few days due to the staunch Ukrainian resistance and Russian forces’ problems with equipment, tactics, and supplies, including fuel and food. David is still bravely fighting Goliath! Of course, Russian forces still have an advantage and are progressing. However, the pace of the invasion is much slower than Vladimir Putin and his generals expected. The Ukrainians’ defense is much fiercer, while Russia’s losses are more severe. The Russian defense ministry admitted that 498 Russian soldiers have already been killed and 1,597 wounded, but the real number is probably much higher. Even if Russia takes control of other cities, it’s unclear whether it will be able to hold them. What’s more, although the West didn’t engage directly in the war, the response of the West was much stronger than Putin could probably have expected. The US and its allies supplied Ukraine with weapons and imposed severe sanctions against Putin and the Russian governing elite, as well as on Russia’s economy and financial system. For instance, the West decided to exclude several Russian banks from SWIFT and also to freeze most of Russian central bank’s foreign currency reserve assets. Additionally, many international companies are moving out of Russia or exporting their products to this country, adding to the economic pressure. The ruble plummeted, as the chart below shows.   Implications for Gold What does the ongoing war in Ukraine mean for the precious metals market? Well, the continuous heroic stance of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Ukrainian defenders is not only heating up the hearts of all freedom-lovers, but also gold prices. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal has soared to about $1,930, the highest level since January 2021. As a reminder, until recently, gold was unable to surpass $1,800. Thus, the recent rally is noteworthy. The war is clearly boosting the safe-haven demand for gold. Another bullish driver is rising inflation. According to early estimates, euro area annual inflation soared from 5.1% in January to 5.8%, and the war is likely to add to the inflationary pressure due to rising energy prices. Both Brent and WTI oil prices have surged above $110 per barrel. Last but not least, I have to mention Powell’s appearance before Congress. In the prepared testimony, he said that the Fed would hike the federal funds rate this month, despite the war in Ukraine: Our monetary policy has been adapting to the evolving economic environment, and it will continue to do so. We have phased out our net asset purchases. With inflation well above 2 percent and a strong labor market, we expect it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate at our meeting later this month. This sounds rather hawkish and, thus, bearish for gold. However, Powell acknowledged that the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain. The near-term effects on the U.S. economy of the invasion of Ukraine, the ongoing war, the sanctions, and of events to come, remain highly uncertain. Making appropriate monetary policy in this environment requires a recognition that the economy evolves in unexpected ways. We will need to be nimble in responding to incoming data and the evolving outlook. Hence, the war in Eastern Europe could make the Fed more dovish than expected at a time when inflation could be higher than forecasted before the war outbreak. Such an environment should be bullish for the gold market. However, there is one important caveat. The detailed analysis of gold prices shows that they declined around the first and second rounds of negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian diplomats in anticipation of the end of the conflict. However, when it became apparent that the talks ended in a stalemate, gold resumed its upward move. The implication should be clear: as long as the war continues, the yellow metal may shine, but when the ceasefire or truce is agreed, we could see a correction in the gold market. It doesn’t have to be a great plunge, but a large part of the geopolitical premium will disappear. Having said that, the war may take a while. I pray that I’m wrong, but the slow progress of the Russian invasion could prompt Vladimir Putin to adopt a “whatever it takes” stance. According to some experts, he is already more emotional than usual, and when faced with the prospects of failure, he could become even more brutal or irrational. We already see that Russian troops, unable to break the Ukrainian defense in open combat, siege the cities and bomb civilians. Hence, the continuation or escalation of Russia’s military actions could provide support for gold prices. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Back to Risk-Off

Back to Risk-Off

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 04.03.2022 15:50
S&P 500 consolidation isn‘t turning out well for the bulls as 4,300 can be easily broken again if I look at credit markets‘ posture. Treasuries just aren‘t sliding no matter the Fed‘s ambiguity on inflation, let alone markets sniffing out rate hike ideas getting revisited. Still, tech gave up opening gains, and closed on a weak note while commodities and precious metals maintained high ground, and the dollar continued rising.The odds are stacked against paper market bulls, and as I had been telling you weeks ago already, this is the time of real assets outperformance. In this sense, miners‘ leadership is a great confirmation of more strength to come, of inflation to continue… Everyone‘s free to make their own opinion after the State of the Union address.On the bright side, the flood of recently closed series of trades spanning stocks, precious metals, oil and copper, has resulted in sharp equity curve gains – and more good calls are in the making, naturally:Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is facing a setback, which could turn a lot worse if the sentiment turn continues. Odds are it would, and we would see some selling going into the weekend.Credit MarketsHYG refused to extend opening gains, and the message is clear, and also a reaction to the Fed‘s pronouncements. Treasuries though are more careful in the tightening prospects assessment – risk-off in bonds and the dollar continues.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are doing great, and are likely to continue rising no matter what the dollar does. There is no good reason for a selloff if you look around objectively. Miners are confirming, the upleg is underway.Crude OilCrude oil upswing isn‘t yet done, it would be premature to say so. It seems though that the time of volatile chop and new base building can continue – oil stocks are the barometer.CopperCopper outperformance leaves me a bit cautious – the advance is likely to slow down and get challenged next. It was a good run, and the red metal isn‘t at all done in the medium-term.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto downswing is reaching a bit farther than I would have been comfortable with. The buyers are welcome to step in on good volume, but I‘m not expecting miracles today or through the weekend.SummaryS&P 500 bulls are losing the initiative, and neither credit markets nor the dollar favor a turnaround today. Treasuries rising in spite of the Fed‘s messaging are also casting a clear verdict, and the yield curve compression continues. The risk-off sentiment that is getting an intermezzo here and there, is likely to rule unless the Fed makes a profound turn before the Mar FOMC. And given the inflation dynamics with all the consequences beyond economics, that‘s unlikely to happen. Markets are thus likely to continue fearing the confluence of events till...Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Your Crypto Focus: 5th-11th March

Your Crypto Focus: 5th-11th March

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 04.03.2022 14:13
It was another week of trade that, in many ways, continues to be governed by the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The week started with a sharp decline but buyers soon came back to life after new lows were hit since the Russian invasion began. Monday and Tuesday saw a follow-up to the buyback with solid gains that have not been seen for a while, hitting a lot of the top ten. For instance, Bitcoin added over 17% in two sessions. This type of buyer momentum got people excited and started to remind us of years just gone by. Sadly, the momentum didn’t last, and we have seen three to two days of declines leading into the weekend session. But the declines have not been market-wide, and we have seen exceptions on the boards, with several coins continuing to fly higher. LUNA, ROOK, ATOM and RUNE have been standouts, but Waves has stolen the show, hitting +67% with a weekly high of $20.87. The top ten and most of the top 25 followed tensions in Europe. As the fighting intensified, markets declined. Today, selling continued to pick up as fighting turned critical as news hit of a major nuclear power station being shelled. As of Friday, many of the top ten and 25 remained in the blue but well off earlier highs. Traders will continue to monitor the ongoing invasion of Ukraine, looking for signs of anything escalating and forcing risk markets lower. US authorities also said they would target Russian funds moving into Crypto. However, proving and stopping it may not impact the currencies. This week we want to look at Bitcoin in more detail. $44,600 has been reconfirmed as resistance and, for now, has stopped the rally. This level is our roof, and a move through would suggest that buyers are still in control. On the downside, we received 36,800 support. If the price returns to this level and breaks through it, we will be looking for sellers to try and resume the downtrend. Otherwise, a hold in-between these two levels suggests we have a consolidation range on our hands. The post Your Crypto Focus: 5th-11th March appeared first on Eightcap.
Shiba Inu price is back in a downtrend holding a potential 17% correction

Shiba Inu price is back in a downtrend holding a potential 17% correction

FXStreet News FXStreet News 04.03.2022 16:07
Red flags for Shiba Inu as three bearish strikes are putting SHIB on track for a 17% loss. Markets, in general, are moving into hibernation mode to overcome the rising tensions in Ukraine.Expect the downtrend to continue until the floor is reached at around $0.00002100.Shiba Inu (SHIB) price action is under the scrutiny of bears as bulls have given away their upper hand and are falling over each other to get out of SHIB price action as it tanks for a third consecutive day. With three bearish signals on the technical front and failed peace talks again between Russia and Ukraine, the background looks set for more downturns to come. From the opening price today, SHIB price action is set to correct another 17% before the current intermediary floor is reached for a test of $0.00002100.SHIB price action is going along with global markets and sees safe-haven bids outweigh the upside potentialShiba Inu price action is under siege by bears after a series of bearish coups overtook price action. On Wednesday, the first negative signal came from a false break and bull trap, at $0.00002707 and the monthly pivot. Bulls broke above but got washed out of their positions by bears, pushing price action below the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $0.00002600. The SMA in its turn again triggered a rejection at the top side on Thursday with bulls being squeezed out of their positions.The pain for SHIB bulls looks far from over as in early morning trading during the ASIA PAC session, strike three was delivered with a break below the low of yesterday, leading to price action dangling above an abyss of around 17%. The first and only real solid support to the downside is at around $0.00002100, with the green ascending trendline holding five solid tests proving that it is a line in the sand where bulls will engage in full force to uphold price action from falling further. The psychological $0.00002000 should add to the strength of the level, but an eventful weekend could see a further crackdown towards $0.00001883 at the monthly S1 support level.SHIB/USD daily chartAs said in the introductory statement, all this results from the Ukraine situation and global markets further going into safe-haven mode. All it would take are just some flairs of positive news alluding to a solution in Ukraine that would trigger a quick and smooth turnaround back towards $0.00002800. With that move, not only would the red descending trend line at the top side be broken, but as well the 78.6% Fibonacci level would come into play, opening the door for more upside to come.
Fed’s Tightening Cycle: Bullish or Bearish for Gold?

Fed’s Tightening Cycle: Bullish or Bearish for Gold?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 04.03.2022 16:14
This month, the Fed is expected to hike interest rates. Contrary to popular belief, the tightening doesn't have to be adverse for gold. What does history show?March 2022 – the Fed is supposed to end its quantitative easing and hike the federal funds rate for the first time during recovery from a pandemic crisis . After the liftoff, the Fed will probably also start reducing the size of its mammoth balance sheet and raise interest rates a few more times. Thus, the tightening of monetary policy is slowly becoming a reality. The golden question is: how will the yellow metal behave under these conditions?Let’s look into the past. The last tightening cycle of 2015-2019 was rather positive for gold prices. The yellow metal rallied in this period from $1,068 to $1,320 (I refer here to monthly averages), gaining about 24%, as the chart below shows.What’s really important is that gold bottomed out in December 2015, the month of the liftoff. Hence, if we see a replay of this episode, gold should detach from $1,800 and go north, into the heavenly land of bulls. However, in December 2015, real interest rates peaked, while in January 2016, the US dollar found its local top. These factors helped to catapult gold prices a few years ago, but they don’t have to reappear this time.Let’s dig a bit deeper. The earlier tightening cycle occurred between 2004 and 2006, and it was also a great time for gold, despite the fact that the Fed raised interest rates by more than 400 basis points, something unthinkable today. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal (monthly average) soared from $392 to $634, or more than 60%. Just as today, inflation was rising back then, but it was also a time of great weakness in the greenback, a factor that is currently absent.Let’s move even further back into the past. The Fed also raised the federal funds rate in the 1994-1995 and 1999-2000 periods. The chart below shows that these cases were rather neutral for gold prices. In the former, gold was traded sideways, while in the latter, it plunged, rallied, and returned to a decline. Importantly, just as in 2015, the yellow metal bottomed out soon after the liftoff in early 1999.In the 1980s, there were two major tightening cycles – both clearly negative for the yellow metal. In 1983-1984, the price of gold plunged 29% from $491 to $348, despite rising inflation, while in 1988-1989, it dropped another 12%, as you can see in the chart below.Finally, we have traveled back in time to the Great Stagflation period! In the 1970s, the Fed’s tightening cycles were generally positive for gold, as the chart below shows. In the period from 1972 to 1974, the average monthly price of the yellow metal soared from $48 to $172, or 257%. The tightening of 1977-1980 was an even better episode for gold. Its price skyrocketed from $132 to $675, or 411%. However, monetary tightening in 1980-1981 proved not very favorable , with the yellow metal plunging then to $409.What are the implications of our historical analysis for the gold market in 2022? First, the Fed’s tightening cycle doesn’t have to be bad for gold. In this report, I’ve examined nine tightening cycles – of which four were bullish, two were neutral, and three were bearish for the gold market. Second, all the negative cases occurred in the 1980s, while the two most recent cycles from the 21st century were positive for gold prices. It bodes well for the 2022 tightening cycle.Third, the key is, as always, the broader macroeconomic context – namely, what is happening with the US dollar, inflation, and real interest rates. For example, in the 1970s, the Fed was hiking rates amid soaring inflation. However, in March 1980, the CPI annul rate peaked, and a long era of disinflation started. This is why tightening cycles were generally positive in the 1970s, and negative in the 1980s.Hence, it seems on the surface that the current tightening should be bullish for gold, as it is accompanied by high inflation. However, inflation is expected to peak this year. If this happens, real interest rates could increase even further, creating downward pressure on gold prices. Please remember that the real federal funds rate is at a record low level. If inflation peaks, gold bulls’ only hope will be either a bearish trend in the US dollar (amid global recovery and ECB’s monetary policy tightening) or a dovish shift in market expectations about the path of the interest rates, given that the Fed’s tightening cycle has historically been followed by an economic slowdown or recession.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
Bitcoin (BTC) To Hit $100k In A Few Years' Time?

Bitcoin (BTC) To Hit $100k In A Few Years' Time?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 07.03.2022 09:05
With a sharp decline over the weekend, Bitcoin wiped out the initial gains, gave away the positions to bears after the third straight week of gains. On Saturday and Sunday, there were drawdowns to $34K on the low-liquid market. So the rate of the first cryptocurrency fell to $38K with a 3.8% loss. However, over the past 24 hours, BTC has reached $39,000 while Ethereum has lost 4.5%. Other leading altcoins from the top ten decline from 2% (XRP) to 6.8% (LUNA). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 3.8%, to $1.71 trillion. The bitcoin dominance index sank from 42.9% on Friday to 42.3% due to the sale of bitcoin over the weekend. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index is at 23 now, remaining in a state of "extreme fear". Looking back, in the middle of the week, the index had a moment in the neutral position. The FxPro Analyst team mentioned that the sales were triggered by reports that the BTC.com pool banned the registration of Russian users. Cryptocurrencies do not remain aloof from politics, and they are weakly confirming the role of an alternative to the banking system now, supporting EU and US sanctions against Russia, and showing their own initiative. The news appeared that Switzerland would freeze the crypto assets of the Russians who fall under the sanctions. In the second half of the week, bitcoin lost almost all the growth against the backdrop of a decline in stock indices. Although, last week started on a positive wave: BTC added almost $8,000 (21%) since previous Monday, but couldn't overcome the strong resistance of mid-February highs at around $45,000 and the 100-day moving average. Speaking about the prospects, pressure on all risky assets will continue to be exerted by the situation around Ukraine, where hostilities have been taking place for two weeks. Worth mentioning that the world-famous investor and writer Robert Kiyosaki said that the US is “destroying the dollar” and called for investing in gold and bitcoin. At the same time, the founder of the investment company SkyBridge Capital (Anthony Scaramucci) is confident that bitcoin will reach $100,000 by 2024. At the moment, he has invested about $1 billion in BTC. Plis, a group of American senators is developing a bill that opens access to the crypto market for institutional investors. And one more news to consider: the city of Lugano in Switzerland has recognized bitcoin and the leading stablecoin Tether (USDT) as legal tender.
Gold: Technical Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, Macro Influences - The Latest "As Good As Gold" Is Here!

Price Of Gold (XAUUSD), Silver Price and WTI – Video Analysis

Jason Sen Jason Sen 07.03.2022 10:55
Gold Spot a low for the day exactly at first support at 1929/27 on Friday & again we remain buyers on weakness to support levels. UPDATE: Gold gapped higher on Sunday to reach 2000 Silver also consolidates gains in the bull trend with no sell signal so we remain buyers on weakness to support levels. UPDATE: Silver gapped higher to 2614. WTI Crude April rockets higher but holds the 16.57 high. A double top would trigger losses to 100 if confirmed but we need to see what candle signals we get on Monday's close. UPDATE: WTI Crude has gapped higher on the open hitting 130.50. Update daily by 05:00 GMT Today's Analysis. Gold with an explosive move back up through 1950 & the February high at 1970/73 for yet another buy signal targeting 1990/92 & 2000. A high for the day exactly here over night but definitely no sell signal at this stage! If we continue higher look for 2013/15, 2026/29 & 2035/37. Important support at 1973/70. Longs need stops below 1965. Next target & strong support at 1950/46. Longs need stops below 1940. Silver through resistance at 2555/75 for a buy signal targeting 2600, 2640/50 & 2690/95. Good support expected at 2580/70. Longs need stops below 2560. Next target & strong support at 2520/10. Longs need stops below 2500. WTI Crude April break above 116.80 triggers the next leg higher in the longer term bull trend in hitting my targets of 117.40/45 & 119.20/60 but rocketing as far as 130.50. According to my Fibonacci extensions (all I have to go on now!!) this is quite an important level but of course shorts are very high risk in the bull trend. If we continue higher look for 132.90/133.10 then 138.00/139.00. Minor support at 124.80/20 & 121.00/120.50. Below 120.00 risks a slide to 116.70/116.10 which fills the opening gap. Watch for a low for the day. Longs need stops below 115.00. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
Ether (ETH), Ripple (XRP) Bitcoin Price (BTCUSD) - Video Analysis

Ether (ETH), Ripple (XRP) Bitcoin Price (BTCUSD) - Video Analysis

Jason Sen Jason Sen 07.03.2022 10:17
Bitcoin could not beat the 100 day moving average at 45000 to keep the bears in control for now with shorts at strong resistance at 44100/400 working perfectly on the slide as far as as far as support at 40800/400.   We are edging lower to 38000/37700 now as I write on Sunday - further losses are expected in the bear trend of course to 36500/400 Ripple mostly sideways in recent days. Ethereum we wrote: Shorts at at 3025/55 target minor support at 2870/40 & perhaps as far as 2750/2700 before the weekend. Targets all hit on the upside & downside so far this week. Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis Bitcoin breaks support at 40800/400 for profit taking. Longs could be risky in the bear trend, but if you try, stop below 40000 (& look for a target of 42800). However if we continue lower look for 39300/200 & 38000/37700, eventually as far as 33300/31100. Gains are likely to be limited in the bear trend with minor resistance at 42300/500 then strong resistance at 44000/200. Shorts need stops above 45000. Ripple just holding support at 7300/7280 but below here can target 7090/70, perhaps as far as support at 6890/6870. On further losses in the bear trend look for 6730/6690. Minor resistance at 7550/7650. Strong resistance at 7800/7850 should be the best sell opportunity of the week. Ethereum shorts at at 3025/55 worked perfectly targeting minor support at 2870/40 & as far as 2750/2700 before the weekend for some profit taking. However further losses look likely eventually to strong support from 2660 down to 2560 which did hold the downside again as I write on Sunday. A break lower eventually however does look likely to the the 500 day moving average at 2490/80. WE HAVE NOT HAD A DAILY CLOSE BELOW THE 500 DMA FOR ALMOST 2 YEARS. If this happens now it would be an important sell signal. Gains are likely to be limited in the bear trend with resistance at 2790/2810 & again at resistance at 3025/55 with a high for the day exactly here. A break above 3100 retests the February high at 3200/3280. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
CFD Update: Three Markets to Watch as Markets Open Today

CFD Update: Three Markets to Watch as Markets Open Today

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 07.03.2022 12:08
Markets have started the week with further heavy selling as the conflict in Ukraine continued to intensify. From Friday’s crazy reports of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant being shelled to broken ceasefires and trapped residents unable to evacuate. Today’s reports suggested Russia had agreed to stop fighting on their side to finally allow trapped residents to evacuate to safe zones.  Oil and Gold have been headline movers, but it hasn’t been all about them. We have continued to watch stock drops on stock indexes. European indexes and Asian indexes have been particularly hard hit, with several losing over 15% in the last two monthly bars, including this month. Oil has not only been a flyer as the world watches Russia and Ukraine, but the energy shock has sent oil prices flying. WTI has seen over 40% added in the last two months, and the rally has been running for the last four months straight. Oil jumped to 13-year highs today as reports mentioned the U.S and Europe could look at banning Russian crude imports.  Getting back to stock indexes, the oil rally has also contributed to the decline. Oil at these highs ramps up inflation fears, that are already running hot and start to put growth pressure back on economies that are just beginning to come out of the pandemic. Business requires energy. High energy costs make business more expensive and can be passed onto the consumer, increasing the cost of goods.  Surging inflation has mainly been a US and European issue, but if it ramped up all over the world, many economies might not be ready to start raising rates to combat it. For instance, Australia’s building industry has been kept alive by a super-hot housing market. Rising rates could cool off the housing market and put pressure on the building and trade industries. One major building group just failed. Higher rates and reduced business could show cracks in more companies.  We’ve picked a few markets out to take a closer look.  Euro Stoxx 50 The Euro Stoxx 50 lost 20% to its low. Europen shares, especially German shares, have been hit hard by the conflict in Ukraine. Sellers have cut close half of the rally seen from 2020. Today sellers retraced all gains made in 2021 after hitting 3381.  Hang Seng Index This one went a little under the radar, but I saw the damage that has been done to this index and was quite surprised. 14% has been wiped off the index in the last two months and the price today slipped below the 2020 low. When you compare it to the JPN225 that’s where the shock comes from, as it has dropped 8%. Gold Gold has been a significant talking point during the crisis. Good old Gold went straight back to safe mode as traders looked for a safe bet in a time of crisis. The rally in the last two months has been rather explosive. Buyers have added over 11% to the value, and we saw $2000USD touched today. Price now sits 3.72% away from retesting highs set back in 2020 in the heart of the pandemic. Another factor that might be adding to the appreciation. Reposts suggest that Gold could be being used to pay for oil. This is interesting as oil has always been paid for in USD. But with Russia partially locked out of SWIFT and the Fed blocking their USD transactions, Gold could be a new payment option moving forward.  Uncertainty presents Volatility Currently, our margin levels remain unchanged across all instruments and we offer one of the best swap conditions on key instruments such as Gold. Make the most out of market movements right now with Eightcap. For more information on market updates and our swap rates, please contact our award-winning customer service team. The post CFD Update: Three Markets to Watch as Markets Open Today appeared first on Eightcap.
COT Soft Commodities Speculators push their Corn bullish bets to 42-week high

COT Soft Commodities Speculators push their Corn bullish bets to 42-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 05.03.2022 17:24
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 1st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT soft commodities data is the continued gains in the Corn futures bets. The speculative net position in the Corn futures rose this week for a second consecutive week and for the fourth time in six weeks. Corn speculator bets have risen by a total of +46,446 contracts over these past two weeks and pushed the current net speculator standing to the highest level in the last forty-two weeks, dating back to May 11th of 2021 when the net position totaled +500,856 contracts. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has boosted already rising soft commodities markets with Corn, Soybeans and Wheat seeing especially sharp gains in the past two weeks. The soft commodities that saw higher bets this week were Corn (9,196 contracts), Sugar (9,293 contracts), Soybean Oil (1,859 contracts), Soybean Meal (1,083 contracts), Cotton (1,526 contracts) and Wheat (10,345 contracts). The soft commodities that saw lower bets this week were Cocoa (-16,484 contracts), Lean Hogs (-5,199 contracts), Coffee (-5,885 contracts), Soybeans (-7,557 contracts) and Live Cattle (-23,204 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-01-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 2,028,476 25 368,663 14 -410,955 79 42,292 75 Gold 615,600 51 257,622 70 -285,809 30 28,187 44 Silver 157,391 23 44,948 67 -57,150 43 12,202 14 Copper 195,398 23 22,093 58 -29,380 39 7,287 67 Palladium 7,242 4 -904 16 423 79 481 73 Platinum 65,383 31 16,890 26 -24,196 74 7,306 64 Natural Gas 1,112,832 3 -126,409 41 90,088 59 36,321 71 Brent 198,920 39 -6,707 100 4,004 0 2,703 46 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 758,796 35 218,907 84 -189,233 21 -29,674 21 Corn 1,484,670 18 460,938 89 -427,812 11 -33,126 24 Coffee 252,545 24 61,906 94 -66,290 8 4,384 19 Sugar 816,211 0 84,539 54 -105,323 48 20,784 34 Wheat 372,124 19 6,443 52 303 41 -6,746 69   CORN Futures: The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 460,938 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,196 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 451,742 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.8 44.0 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.8 72.8 11.4 – Net Position: 460,938 -427,812 -33,126 – Gross Longs: 531,633 652,937 136,120 – Gross Shorts: 70,695 1,080,749 169,246 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.9 11.0 23.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.3 -12.1 7.1   SUGAR Futures: The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 84,539 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,293 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,246 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.2 54.4 9.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.8 67.3 7.2 – Net Position: 84,539 -105,323 20,784 – Gross Longs: 180,931 443,667 79,458 – Gross Shorts: 96,392 548,990 58,674 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 54.0 48.2 33.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.9 4.1 8.5   COFFEE Futures: The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 61,906 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,885 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,791 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent. COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.0 44.3 4.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.5 70.5 2.5 – Net Position: 61,906 -66,290 4,384 – Gross Longs: 73,322 111,809 10,704 – Gross Shorts: 11,416 178,099 6,320 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.4 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 93.6 7.9 18.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.4 0.5 8.5   SOYBEANS Futures: The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 218,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 226,464 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.9 43.3 6.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.1 68.3 10.6 – Net Position: 218,907 -189,233 -29,674 – Gross Longs: 264,899 328,781 50,659 – Gross Shorts: 45,992 518,014 80,333 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 84.4 21.3 20.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 22.4 -22.8 10.4   SOYBEAN OIL Futures: The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 84,952 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,859 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,093 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent. SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.4 46.7 9.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.9 73.3 5.2 – Net Position: 84,952 -100,238 15,286 – Gross Longs: 110,869 175,682 34,986 – Gross Shorts: 25,917 275,920 19,700 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.7 29.7 70.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 18.0 -20.1 25.0   SOYBEAN MEAL Futures: The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 113,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,083 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 112,100 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.2 44.0 11.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 3.7 78.9 5.0 – Net Position: 113,183 -138,449 25,266 – Gross Longs: 127,976 175,029 45,168 – Gross Shorts: 14,793 313,478 19,902 – Long to Short Ratio: 8.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 95.1 3.7 71.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 18.9 -17.2 -7.3   LIVE CATTLE Futures: The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 59,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -23,204 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 82,243 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent. LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.3 38.5 9.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.8 52.8 11.7 – Net Position: 59,039 -51,142 -7,897 – Gross Longs: 115,502 137,310 33,952 – Gross Shorts: 56,463 188,452 41,849 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.6 65.8 67.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.0 5.7 -5.9   LEAN HOGS Futures: The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 61,239 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,199 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,438 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent. LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.2 32.4 8.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.1 51.4 11.8 – Net Position: 61,239 -52,397 -8,842 – Gross Longs: 102,930 89,767 23,714 – Gross Shorts: 41,691 142,164 32,556 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 73.5 29.6 41.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 14.1 -21.6 28.2   COTTON Futures: The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 91,828 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,526 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 90,302 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent. COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.2 38.4 8.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.7 81.4 3.4 – Net Position: 91,828 -102,842 11,014 – Gross Longs: 103,148 91,726 19,051 – Gross Shorts: 11,320 194,568 8,037 – Long to Short Ratio: 9.1 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 81.2 17.8 82.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.1 3.2 -13.2   COCOA Futures: The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 25,431 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -16,484 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,915 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.6 45.5 7.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.5 59.5 3.2 – Net Position: 25,431 -35,441 10,010 – Gross Longs: 74,581 114,758 18,047 – Gross Shorts: 49,150 150,199 8,037 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.5 47.2 100.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.5 -4.1 68.8   WHEAT Futures: The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 6,443 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 10,345 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,902 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent. WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.2 42.2 8.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.5 42.1 10.2 – Net Position: 6,443 303 -6,746 – Gross Longs: 104,934 157,102 31,257 – Gross Shorts: 98,491 156,799 38,003 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 52.5 41.1 69.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.4 -4.7 15.5   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
WTI Crude Oil Speculator bets see largest 1-week rise since 2020 on Russia Invasion

WTI Crude Oil Speculator bets see largest 1-week rise since 2020 on Russia Invasion

Invest Macro Invest Macro 05.03.2022 18:06
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 1st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT energy data is this week’s jump in the WTI Crude Oil futures bets. The speculative net position in the WTI Crude Oil futures rose this week for the first time in the past six weeks and had the largest one-week gain of the past sixty-six weeks, dating back to November 24th of 2020. The WTI Crude contract had been seeing a weakness in speculator positions despite the ramping up of the Russia-Ukraine situation as spec positions had fallen for six straight weeks before this week’s turnaround. Crude oil prices have surged on the Russian invasion of Ukraine with oil closing this week right below the $116 per barrel level which marks the highest price close since 2008. Joining WTI Crude Oil (29,622 contracts) in gaining this week were Brent Crude Oil (19,648 contracts) and Natural Gas (4,220 contracts) while Heating Oil (-9,228 contracts), Gasoline (-1,144 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-709 contracts) saw falling contracts. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-01-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 2,028,476 25 368,663 14 -410,955 79 42,292 75 Gold 615,600 51 257,622 70 -285,809 30 28,187 44 Silver 157,391 23 44,948 67 -57,150 43 12,202 14 Copper 195,398 23 22,093 58 -29,380 39 7,287 67 Palladium 7,242 4 -904 16 423 79 481 73 Platinum 65,383 31 16,890 26 -24,196 74 7,306 64 Natural Gas 1,112,832 3 -126,409 41 90,088 59 36,321 71 Brent 198,920 39 -6,707 100 4,004 0 2,703 46 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 758,796 35 218,907 84 -189,233 21 -29,674 21 Corn 1,484,670 18 460,938 89 -427,812 11 -33,126 24 Coffee 252,545 24 61,906 94 -66,290 8 4,384 19 Sugar 816,211 0 84,539 54 -105,323 48 20,784 34 Wheat 372,124 19 6,443 52 303 41 -6,746 69   WTI Crude Oil Futures: The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 368,663 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 29,622 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 339,041 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent. WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.9 36.0 4.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.8 56.2 2.8 – Net Position: 368,663 -410,955 42,292 – Gross Longs: 465,365 729,585 99,568 – Gross Shorts: 96,702 1,140,540 57,276 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 14.0 79.1 74.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.7 6.4 1.4   Brent Crude Oil Futures: The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -6,707 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 19,648 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,355 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent. Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.1 40.9 4.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.5 38.9 2.9 – Net Position: -6,707 4,004 2,703 – Gross Longs: 45,940 81,376 8,390 – Gross Shorts: 52,647 77,372 5,687 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 45.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 22.7 -21.9 -4.0   Natural Gas Futures: The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -126,409 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,220 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -130,629 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent. Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.1 43.6 5.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.4 35.5 2.1 – Net Position: -126,409 90,088 36,321 – Gross Longs: 245,502 484,644 59,416 – Gross Shorts: 371,911 394,556 23,095 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 2.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 40.6 59.3 70.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.5 1.2 11.2   Gasoline Blendstock Futures: The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 62,443 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,144 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,587 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.8 50.4 6.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.6 70.4 3.6 – Net Position: 62,443 -72,465 10,022 – Gross Longs: 97,185 182,352 22,896 – Gross Shorts: 34,742 254,817 12,874 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.8 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.6 64.5 71.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.7 -5.2 21.2   #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures: The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 6,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,683 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.0 50.8 14.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.1 60.1 6.9 – Net Position: 6,455 -32,434 25,979 – Gross Longs: 59,340 177,626 50,210 – Gross Shorts: 52,885 210,060 24,231 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.9 36.7 88.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -10.3 23.6   Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures: The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -12,876 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -709 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,167 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent. Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 63.4 29.1 3.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 94.6 1.6 0.2 – Net Position: -12,876 11,345 1,531 – Gross Longs: 26,144 12,001 1,605 – Gross Shorts: 39,020 656 74 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 18.3 to 1 21.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.2 36.9 73.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.0 -16.8 34.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Silver Speculator’s bullish bets climb to 15-week high as prices rise above $25

Silver Speculator’s bullish bets climb to 15-week high as prices rise above $25

Invest Macro Invest Macro 05.03.2022 18:29
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 1st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT metals data is the rising speculator sentiment in the Silver futures bets. The speculative net position in the Silver futures rose this week for the third consecutive week and for the seventh time out of the past ten weeks. Silver speculator bets have now gained by a total of +25,649 contracts over these past three weeks and this week’s rise by +14,646 contracts marked the largest one-week gain in the past one hundred and fourteen weeks, dating all the way back to December of 2019. The current speculator contract standing has reached the highest level of the past fifteen weeks with a total of +44,948 contracts. The Silver price has been on the upswing with prices reaching the best levels since August and above the $25.75 per ounce level. Joining Silver (14,646 contracts) with higher speculator bets this week were Gold (14,474 contracts) and Palladium (525 contracts) while Copper (-3,482 contracts) and Platinum (-650 contracts) saw lower speculator positions for the week. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-01-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 2,028,476 25 368,663 14 -410,955 79 42,292 75 Gold 615,600 51 257,622 70 -285,809 30 28,187 44 Silver 157,391 23 44,948 67 -57,150 43 12,202 14 Copper 195,398 23 22,093 58 -29,380 39 7,287 67 Palladium 7,242 4 -904 16 423 79 481 73 Platinum 65,383 31 16,890 26 -24,196 74 7,306 64 Natural Gas 1,112,832 3 -126,409 41 90,088 59 36,321 71 Brent 198,920 39 -6,707 100 4,004 0 2,703 46 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 758,796 35 218,907 84 -189,233 21 -29,674 21 Corn 1,484,670 18 460,938 89 -427,812 11 -33,126 24 Coffee 252,545 24 61,906 94 -66,290 8 4,384 19 Sugar 816,211 0 84,539 54 -105,323 48 20,784 34 Wheat 372,124 19 6,443 52 303 41 -6,746 69   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 257,622 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 14,474 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 243,148 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 57.5 20.7 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.7 67.1 3.6 – Net Position: 257,622 -285,809 28,187 – Gross Longs: 354,177 127,231 50,266 – Gross Shorts: 96,555 413,040 22,079 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.7 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.6 30.4 44.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.1 -19.7 3.8   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 44,948 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 14,646 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,302 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 45.3 32.7 16.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.7 69.0 8.3 – Net Position: 44,948 -57,150 12,202 – Gross Longs: 71,235 51,440 25,234 – Gross Shorts: 26,287 108,590 13,032 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.2 42.8 13.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.2 -15.3 2.1   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 22,093 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,482 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,575 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 38.7 38.5 9.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.3 53.5 5.9 – Net Position: 22,093 -29,380 7,287 – Gross Longs: 75,526 75,232 18,908 – Gross Shorts: 53,433 104,612 11,621 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.3 39.3 67.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.2 0.8 -5.4   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 16,890 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -650 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,540 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 51.9 29.6 14.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.0 66.6 3.6 – Net Position: 16,890 -24,196 7,306 – Gross Longs: 33,902 19,330 9,637 – Gross Shorts: 17,012 43,526 2,331 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 4.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.2 74.4 64.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 14.1 -16.2 22.7   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 525 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,429 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.3 44.8 20.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.8 39.0 13.9 – Net Position: -904 423 481 – Gross Longs: 2,412 3,248 1,488 – Gross Shorts: 3,316 2,825 1,007 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.4 78.9 73.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.8 -17.1 34.2   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Bonds Speculators drop their 5-Year US Treasuries bets to 172-week low

COT Bonds Speculators drop their 5-Year US Treasuries bets to 172-week low

Invest Macro Invest Macro 05.03.2022 19:55
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 1st 2022 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT bonds data is the surge higher in the bearish bets of the 5-Year Bond futures. The speculative bearish position in the 5-Year has increased for four straight weeks and has seen bearish bets change by at least -125,000 contracts in each of the past two weeks. The cumulative decline over the past four weeks has now amounted to a total of -353,515 contracts. This bearishness has pushed the current speculator standing to the most negative level in the past one hundred and seventy-two weeks, dating back to November of 2018. The speculator strength index score also hit a zero percent score this week, reiterating the weakness of the 5-Year speculator sentiment (the speculator strength index is the current speculator standing compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme). Despite the speculator weakness, the 5-Year Bond price this week rose as safe havens were bid with the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the risk-off tone of the markets. The bond markets with higher speculator positions this week were the 2-Year Bond (9,132 contracts), Eurodollar (163,136 contracts) and the Long US Treasury Bond (10,209 contracts) while the bond markets with lower speculator positions were the 5-Year Bond (-126,803 contracts), 10-Year Bond (-80,691 contracts), Ultra 10-Year (-17,360 contracts), Fed Funds (-112,320 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (-880 contracts). Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-01-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index Eurodollar 11,107,908 47 -2,219,731 3 2,611,337 96 -391,606 18 FedFunds 1,860,806 63 -139,272 22 159,332 79 -20,060 12 2-Year 2,047,626 11 -110,827 60 180,391 59 -69,564 14 Long T-Bond 1,113,867 34 -4,529 92 28,819 29 -24,290 33 10-Year 3,772,058 49 -365,783 16 585,754 95 -219,971 27 5-Year 3,807,232 37 -474,039 0 706,436 100 -232,397 17   3-Month Eurodollars Futures: The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,219,731 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 163,136 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,382,867 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent. 3-Month Eurodollars Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.3 74.8 3.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.3 51.3 7.2 – Net Position: -2,219,731 2,611,337 -391,606 – Gross Longs: 591,420 8,313,755 411,021 – Gross Shorts: 2,811,151 5,702,418 802,627 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.3 95.7 18.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.0 7.6 0.8   30-Day Federal Funds Futures: The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -139,272 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -112,320 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,952 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent. 30-Day Federal Funds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 2.3 78.7 1.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.8 70.2 2.5 – Net Position: -139,272 159,332 -20,060 – Gross Longs: 43,149 1,464,992 26,323 – Gross Shorts: 182,421 1,305,660 46,383 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 22.4 79.2 12.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.7 15.1 5.7   2-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -110,827 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,132 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -119,959 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent. 2-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.7 78.4 7.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.1 69.6 11.0 – Net Position: -110,827 180,391 -69,564 – Gross Longs: 240,027 1,605,575 155,387 – Gross Shorts: 350,854 1,425,184 224,951 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.9 59.3 14.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -30.2 33.6 -1.8   5-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -474,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -126,803 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -347,236 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent. 5-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.2 83.1 7.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.7 64.5 13.1 – Net Position: -474,039 706,436 -232,397 – Gross Longs: 275,611 3,163,442 267,288 – Gross Shorts: 749,650 2,457,006 499,685 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 17.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -45.1 27.8 8.1   10-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -365,783 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -80,691 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -285,092 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent. 10-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.5 77.5 8.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 20.2 62.0 14.3 – Net Position: -365,783 585,754 -219,971 – Gross Longs: 397,091 2,925,060 319,742 – Gross Shorts: 762,874 2,339,306 539,713 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 15.7 95.0 27.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -14.5 5.8 11.0   Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures: The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 6,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -17,360 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,543 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent. Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.9 74.3 9.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.4 65.8 18.3 – Net Position: 6,183 113,368 -119,551 – Gross Longs: 199,058 992,920 124,560 – Gross Shorts: 192,875 879,552 244,111 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 29.4 76.0 43.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.4 2.5 36.5   US Treasury Bonds Futures: The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,529 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,209 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,738 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent. US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.9 72.8 13.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.3 70.2 16.0 – Net Position: -4,529 28,819 -24,290 – Gross Longs: 120,945 810,886 154,016 – Gross Shorts: 125,474 782,067 178,306 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.8 29.3 33.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.4 -9.9 -9.3   Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures: The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -335,261 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -880 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -334,381 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent. Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.2 80.0 12.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.7 56.4 9.6 – Net Position: -335,261 297,953 37,308 – Gross Longs: 79,120 1,012,450 159,109 – Gross Shorts: 414,381 714,497 121,801 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 48.4 60.8 55.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.3 -2.0 0.7   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Large Currency Speculators raise their Brazilian Real bullish bets to Record High

Large Currency Speculators raise their Brazilian Real bullish bets to Record High

Invest Macro Invest Macro 05.03.2022 20:47
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 1st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data is the jump in bullish bets in the Brazilian Real currency futures contracts. Real speculators increased their bullish bets for a fourth straight week this week and by a total of +63,801 contracts over this four-week time-frame. This bullishness has taken the Real speculator level from -13,353 net positions on February 1st to +50,448 net positions this week. The current overall speculator standing has now climbed to the most bullish level on record, according to the CFTC data that goes back to the mid-1990’s and eclipsing the previous high set in 2017. The BRLUSD currency pair price has been in an uptrend since the beginning of the year and has reached the highest levels since June just below the 0.2000 exchange rate. The currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Brazil real (26,003 contracts), Mexican peso (25,553 contracts), Euro (5,633 contracts), British pound sterling (5,472 contracts), Canadian dollar (4,887 contracts), Australian dollar (5,744 contracts) and Bitcoin (363 contracts). The currencies with lower speculator bets were the US Dollar Index (-1,310 contracts), Japanese yen (-5,545 contracts), Swiss franc (-4,261 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-2,621 contracts) and the Russian ruble (-9,843 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-01-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 56,651 82 34,774 86 -39,391 9 4,617 67 EUR 719,975 91 64,939 55 -95,105 49 30,166 24 GBP 211,869 46 -337 74 14,129 38 -13,792 27 JPY 208,629 61 -68,732 25 79,535 76 -10,803 27 CHF 47,273 24 -15,248 43 20,862 54 -5,614 47 CAD 143,507 26 14,140 61 -21,586 42 7,446 45 AUD 189,667 75 -78,336 12 87,737 84 -9,401 30 NZD 50,389 44 -14,172 47 16,090 55 -1,918 30 MXN 154,664 28 42,378 45 -45,811 54 3,433 58 RUB 24,753 11 9,674 36 -9,068 65 -606 18 BRL 94,577 100 24,445 74 -27,081 25 2,636 97 Bitcoin 9,980 51 80 99 -517 0 437 23   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 34,774 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,310 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,084 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.2 8.5 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.9 78.1 2.3 – Net Position: 34,774 -39,391 4,617 – Gross Longs: 43,761 4,831 5,942 – Gross Shorts: 8,987 44,222 1,325 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.9 to 1 0.1 to 1 4.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 85.8 9.1 67.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.9 5.0 -14.7   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 64,939 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,306 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.7 54.2 11.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.7 67.4 7.5 – Net Position: 64,939 -95,105 30,166 – Gross Longs: 228,385 390,260 84,321 – Gross Shorts: 163,446 485,365 54,155 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 54.9 48.8 24.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.4 -12.6 7.1   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -337 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,472 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,809 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.5 62.1 10.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.7 55.4 17.2 – Net Position: -337 14,129 -13,792 – Gross Longs: 47,679 131,583 22,551 – Gross Shorts: 48,016 117,454 36,343 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 73.8 38.0 27.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.1 6.7 -23.2   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -68,732 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,545 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,187 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.0 80.3 10.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.0 42.2 15.9 – Net Position: -68,732 79,535 -10,803 – Gross Longs: 14,665 167,605 22,407 – Gross Shorts: 83,397 88,070 33,210 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.9 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 24.6 75.7 26.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.7 -10.0 17.5   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -15,248 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,987 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.5 74.1 21.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 35.7 30.0 33.3 – Net Position: -15,248 20,862 -5,614 – Gross Longs: 1,651 35,045 10,127 – Gross Shorts: 16,899 14,183 15,741 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.3 54.3 46.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.8 8.0 -7.7   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 14,140 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,887 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,253 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.5 40.1 21.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.6 55.2 16.3 – Net Position: 14,140 -21,586 7,446 – Gross Longs: 50,881 57,576 30,817 – Gross Shorts: 36,741 79,162 23,371 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 61.4 42.2 44.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.4 -5.4 2.4   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -78,336 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,744 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -84,080 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.7 80.1 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.0 33.8 15.4 – Net Position: -78,336 87,737 -9,401 – Gross Longs: 12,720 151,922 19,865 – Gross Shorts: 91,056 64,185 29,266 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 12.2 84.4 29.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.4 -8.0 1.6   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -14,172 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,551 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.8 72.1 5.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.9 40.2 9.1 – Net Position: -14,172 16,090 -1,918 – Gross Longs: 10,485 36,326 2,665 – Gross Shorts: 24,657 20,236 4,583 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.5 55.2 29.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.8 8.4 4.3   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 42,378 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 25,553 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,825 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 48.5 46.9 4.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.1 76.5 1.9 – Net Position: 42,378 -45,811 3,433 – Gross Longs: 74,971 72,497 6,306 – Gross Shorts: 32,593 118,308 2,873 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.4 53.7 57.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.0 -16.0 3.7   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 24,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,760 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 55.0 40.2 4.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.1 68.9 2.0 – Net Position: 24,445 -27,081 2,636 – Gross Longs: 51,990 38,039 4,541 – Gross Shorts: 27,545 65,120 1,905 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 74.4 24.7 97.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 34.7 -37.1 31.8   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 9,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,843 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,517 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 44.6 51.9 3.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.6 88.5 5.9 – Net Position: 9,674 -9,068 -606 – Gross Longs: 11,050 12,848 855 – Gross Shorts: 1,376 21,916 1,461 – Long to Short Ratio: 8.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 36.3 64.8 18.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.7 -4.2 -39.0   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 80 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 363 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -283 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.0 3.2 12.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 79.2 8.4 7.6 – Net Position: 80 -517 437 – Gross Longs: 7,981 321 1,198 – Gross Shorts: 7,901 838 761 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 98.7 0.0 22.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.8 -39.7 -3.0   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Is It Too Late To Begin Adapting To Higher Volatility In The Market?

Is It Too Late To Begin Adapting To Higher Volatility In The Market?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 07.03.2022 22:18
Now is the time for traders to adapt to higher volatility and rapidly changing market conditions. One of the best ways to do this is to monitor different asset classes and track which investments are gaining and losing money flow. Knowing what the Best Asset Now is (BAN) is critical for consistent growth no matter the market condition.With that said, buyers (countries, investors, and traders) are panicking as the commodity Wheat, for example, gained more than 40% last week.‘Panic Commodity Buying’ in Wheat – Weekly ChartAccording to the US Dept. of Agriculture, China will hold 69% of the world’s corn reserves, 60% of rice and 51% of wheat by mid-2022.Commodity markets surged to their largest gains in years as Ukrainian ports were closed and sanctions against Russia sent buyers scrambling for replacement supplies. Global commodities, commodity funds, and commodity ETFs are attracting huge capital inflows as investors seek to cash in on the rally in oil, metals, and grains.How does the Russia – Ukraine war affect global food supplies?The conflict between major commodity producers Russia and Ukraine is causing countries that rely heavily on commodity imports to feed their citizens to enter into panic buying. The breadbaskets of Ukraine and Russia account for more than 25% of the global wheat trade and nearly 20% of the global corn trade.Last week, it was reported that many countries have dangerously low grain supplies. Nader Saad, an Egypt Cabinet spokesman, has raised the alarm that currently, Egypt has only nine months’ worth of wheat in silos. The supply includes five months of strategic reserves and four months of domestic production to cover the bread needs of 102 million Egyptians. Additionally, Avigdor Lieberman, Israel’s economic minister, said on Thursday (3/3/22) that his country should keep “a low profile” regarding the conflict in eastern Europe, given that Israel imports 50 percent of its wheat from Russia and 30 percent from Ukraine.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!The longer-term potential for much higher grain prices exists, but it’s worth noting that Friday’s close of nearly $12.00 a bushel for wheat is not that far away from the all-time record high of $13.30, recorded 14-years ago. According to Trading Economics, wheat has gone up 75.08% year-to-date while other commodity markets like Oats are up a whopping 85.13%, Coffee 74.68%, and Corn 34.07%.How are other markets reacting to these global events?Year-to-date comparison returns as of 3/4/2022:-9.18% S&P 500 (index), -7.49% DJI (index), -15.21% Nasdaq (index), +37.44% Exxon Mobile (oil), +20.08% Freeport McMoran (copper & gold), -20.68% Tesla (alternative energy), -24.49% Microstrategy (bitcoin play), -40.51% Meta-Facebook (social media)As stock holdings and 401k’s are shrinking it may be time to re-evaluate your portfolio. There are ETFs available that can give you exposure to commodities, energy, and metals.Here is an example of a few of these ETFs:+53.81% WEAT Teucrium Wheat Fund+41.79% GSG iShares S&P TSCI Commodity -Indexed Trust+104.40 UCO ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil+59.32% PALL Aberdeen Standard Physical Palladium SharesHow is the global investor reacting to rocketing commodity prices and increasing market volatility?We can track global money flow by monitoring the following 1-month currency graph (www.finviz.com). The Australian Dollar is up +4.25%, the New Zealand Dollar +3.72%, and the Canadian Dollar +0.30% vs. the US Dollar due to the rising commodity prices like metals and energy. These country currencies are known as commodity currencies.The Switzerland Franc +0.96%, the Japanese Yen +0.35%, and the US Dollar +0.00% are all benefiting from global capital seeking a safe haven. As volatility continues to spike, these country currencies will experience more inflows as capital comes out of depreciating assets and seeks stability.We also notice that capital outflow is occurring from the European Union-Eurodollar -4.55% and the British Pound -2.22% due to their close proximity (risk) to the Russia - Ukraine war.www.finviz.comGlobal central banks will need to begin raising their interest rates to combat high inflation!Due to the rapid acceleration of inflation, the US Federal Reserve may have been looking to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at its policy meeting two weeks from now. However, given Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the FED may become more cautious and consider raising interest rates by only 25 basis points on March 15-16.What strategies can help you navigate current market trends?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals are starting to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.Now is the time to keep your eye on the ball!I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 1/3/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 1/3/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 07.03.2022 21:35
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 1/3/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index fell 1,310 contracts last week. This change is the result of 35 contracts increase in long positions and a 1,345 contracts increase in short positions. Growth in total net speculator positions occurred last week in the euro, the British pound, the Australian dollar, and the Canadian dollar. Decreases in total net positions occurred in the New Zealand dollar, the Japanese yen, and the Swiss franc.   Following Russia's invasion to Ukraine, markets shifted into risk-off sentiment. This means that especially the euro and the pound are weakening. The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar are strengthening due to rising prices of commodities that these countries export. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Mar 01, 2022 34774 64939 -337 -78336 -14172 -68732 14140 -15248 Feb 22, 2022 36084 59306 -5809 -84080 -11551 -63187 9253 -10987 Feb 15, 2022 35386 47581 2237 -86694 -9333 -66162 12170 -9715 Feb 08, 2022 33765 38842 -8545 -85741 -10366 -59148 14886 -9399 Feb 01, 2022 34571 29716 -23605 -79829 -11698 -60640 18264 -8239 Jan 25, 2022 36861 31560 -7763 -83273 -10773 -68273 12317 -8796 Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com The Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 01, 2022 719975 228385 163446 64939 23293 14190 8557 5633 Bullish Feb 22, 2022 696682 214195 154889 59306 -5365 -3704 -15429 11725 Bullish Feb 15, 2022 702047 217899 170318 47581 1949 -1074 -9813 8739 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 700098 218973 180131 38842 14667 5410 -3716 9126 Bullish Feb 01, 2022 685431 213563 183847 29716 2479 155 1999 -1844 Weak bullish Jan 25, 2022 682952 213408 181848 31560 -8930 1507 -5469 6976 Bullish         Total change 28093 16484 -23871 40355     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 64,939 contracts last week, which is an increase by 5,633 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 14,190 contracts and an increase in short positions by 8,557 contracts. These data suggest continued bullish sentiment in the euro. Open interest, which has increased by 23,293 contracts in the last week, shows that the downward movement that occurred in the euro last week was supported by volume and is therefore strong. The euro is weakening sharply under the influence of the war in Ukraine and we can see that support levels have not been respected in such a strong trend. In a strong downtrend it is very risky to try to catch the bottom and open bullish long positions.  Long-term resistance: 1.0980 – 1.1010. Next resistance is near 1.1120 – 1.1150. Support: 1.0640-1.0700 The British pound date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 01, 2022 211869 47679 48016 -337 23426 5430 -42 5472 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 188443 42249 48058 -5809 -6859 -7902 144 -8046 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 195302 50151 47914 2237 -2646 5442 -5340 10782 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 197948 44709 53254 -8545 13941 15112 52 15060 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 184007 29597 53202 -23605 1967 -7069 8773 -15842 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 182040 36666 44429 -7763 -1194 -3094 4422 -7516 Bearish         Total change 28635 7919 8009 -90     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached to -337 contracts, having increased by 5,472 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 5,430 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 42 contracts. This suggests bearish sentiment, but it is weak as the total net positions of large speculators increased. Open interest, which rose by 23,426 contracts last week, means that the fall in the pound that occurred last week was supported by volume and is therefore strong. Risk off sentiment due to the war in Ukraine continues to weigh on the pound as well as the euro and therefore the pound is weakening strongly. Long-term resistance: 1.3270-1.3300.  Next resistance is near 1.3420 – 1.3440. The resistance is also in the zone 1.3490 – 1.3520. Support is near 1.3150 – 1.3200.     The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 01, 2022 189667 12720 91056 -78336 -2912 1167 -4577 5744 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 192579 11553 95633 -84080 1 -139 -2753 2614 Weak bearish Feb 15, 2022 192578 11692 98386 -86694 -3825 -5631 -4678 -953 Bearish Feb 08, 2022 196403 17323 103064 -85741 -510 -1512 4400 -5912 Bearish Feb 01, 2022 196913 18835 98664 -79829 6893 3714 270 3444 Weak bearish Jan 25, 2022 190020 15121 98394 -83273 8884 6070 889 5181 Weak bearish         Total change 8531 3669 -6449 10118     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached to - 78,336 contracts, up by 5,744 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 1,167 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 4,577 contracts. This data suggests a weakening of bearish sentiment in the Australian dollar. However, last week we saw a decline in open interest by 2,912 contracts. This means that the upward movement that occurred last week in the AUDUSD was weak because new money did not flow into the market. The Australian dollar has been strengthening strongly recently, which is explained by the rise in the prices of commodities that Australia exports. These commodities include coal, gas and gold.  Long-term resistance: 0.7520-0.7560                                                                                                              Long-term support: 0.7085-0.7120.  A strong support is near 0.6960 – 0.6990.   The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 01, 2022 50389 10485 24657 -14172 -6247 -6858 -4237 -2621 Bearish Feb 22, 2022 56636 17343 28894 -11551 -7469 -7580 -5362 -2218 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 64105 24923 34256 -9333 9228 7755 6722 1033 Weak bearish Feb 08, 2022 54877 17168 27534 -10366 -3590 -2037 -3369 1332 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 58467 19205 30903 -11698 5151 3257 4182 -925 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 53316 15948 26721 -10773 8589 4336 6778 -2442 Bearish         Total change 5662 -1127 4714 -5841     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1     The total net positions of speculators last week reached a value of - 14,172 contracts, having fallen by 2,621 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 6,858 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 4,237 contracts. This data suggests that the bearish sentiment for the NZD continues. Last week, open interest fell significantly by 6,247 contracts. Therefore, the upward movement in the NZDUSD that occurred last week is not supported by volume and therefore the price action was weak. The strengthening of the NZDUSD that occurred last week is somewhat surprising given the geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and risk off sentiment. What helped the NZD rise are rising prices of commodities  such as milk, which New Zealand produces. Long-term resistance: 0.6850 – 0.6890 Long-term support: 0.6590-0.6600 and the next support is at 0.6500 – 0.6530.   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
Crude Oil Climbs High. Is It Enough to Enjoy a Better View?

Crude Oil Climbs High. Is It Enough to Enjoy a Better View?

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 07.03.2022 16:45
  The threat of sanctions caused a stir in the markets: WTI spiked above $130 and Brent is nearing the $140 mark. Where is crude oil going next? A possible Western embargo on Russian oil caused oil prices to soar again on Monday, as stock markets feared persistent inflation and a consequent economic slowdown. On the US dollar side, the continued rally of the greenback has propelled the dollar index (DXY) towards higher levels, as it is now approaching the three-figure mark ($100), even though it has not had a huge impact on crude oil, other petroleum products, or any other commodities in general. What we rather witness here is the greenback’s safe haven effect attracting investors, much like gold would tend to act in a “store of value” role. US Dollar Index (DXY) CFD (daily chart) On the geopolitical scene, Russia-Ukraine peace talks will be resumed today in Brest (Belarus) at 14:00 GMT, while another meeting is already scheduled at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum on Thursday in Turkey. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba will talk there in the presence of the Turkish foreign minister. We might therefore expect some de-escalation in the Black Sea basin this week if the two parties involved were able to reach an agreement after further negotiations. WTI Crude Oil (CLJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Brent Crude Oil (BRNK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart) RBOB Gasoline (RBJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Regarding natural gas, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) published its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2022 report, suggesting that even with non-hydro renewable sources set to rapidly grow through 2050, oil and gas-derived sources should still remain the top energy sources to fuel most of the United States. The agency is forecasting a rise in the production of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) – which mainly comes from shale gas – by at least 35%! In summary, the threat of sanctions has already wiped out almost all Russian oil – at least 7% of global supply – from the world oil market. In the weeks or months to come, we can see sanctions on Russian oil exports create a boomerang effect on European economies, decreasing world market supply, increasing prices for industry, as well as even more rising expenses, and thus cost of living through a ripple effect. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
USDCAD Trades Higher, EURGBP Nears 0.83, S&P 500 (SPX) Fell A Little

USDCAD Trades Higher, EURGBP Nears 0.83, S&P 500 (SPX) Fell A Little

Jing Ren Jing Ren 08.03.2022 09:29
USDCAD breaks higher The US dollar bounces back as traders pile into safer currencies at the expense of commodity assets. The previous rally above the supply zone at 1.2800 has prompted sellers to cover. Then a follow-up pullback saw support over 1.2600, a sign of accumulation and traders’ strong interest in keeping the greenback afloat. A breakout above 1.2810 could pave the way for an extended rise to last December’s high at 1.2950, even though the RSI’s situation may briefly hold the bulls back. 1.2680 is a fresh support in case of a pullback. EURGBP bounces back The euro recoups losses as shorts cover ahead of the ECB meeting. The pair’s fall below the major floor (0.8280) on the daily chart further weighs on sentiment. The lack of support suggests that traders’ are wary of catching a falling knife. The RSI’s double-dip into the oversold area has led to profit-taking, driving the price up. However, the rally could turn out to be a dead cat bounce if the bears fade the rebound in the supply zone around 0.8360. 0.8200 is a fresh support when momentum comes back again. SPX 500 struggles to rebound The S&P 500 extended losses as investors are wary of a global economic downturn. On the daily chart, a brief rebound has met stiff selling pressure on the 30-day moving average (4410). In fact, this indicates that the bearish mood still dominates after the index fell through 4250. Buyers have failed to hold above 4230, leaving the market vulnerable to another round of sell-off. 4110 is the next stop and a bearish breakout could lead to the psychological level of 4000. 4320 is now the closest resistance ahead.
S&P 500 (SPX) Plunges, Metals And Crude Oil Prices Go Up

S&P 500 (SPX) Plunges, Metals And Crude Oil Prices Go Up

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 08.03.2022 15:41
S&P 500 indeed didn‘t reverse on Friday in earnest, and both tech and value sold off hard. Not much reason to be bullish thanks to credit markets performance either – the posture is very risk-off, and the rush to commodities goes on. With a little check yesterday on the high opening prices in crude oil and copper, but still. My favorite agrifoods picks of late, wheat and corn, are doing great, and the pressure within select base metals, is building up – such as (for understandable reasons) in nickel and aluminum. Look for more to come, especially there where supply is getting messed with (this doesn‘t concern copper to such a degree, explaining its tepid price gains). And I‘m not talking even the brightest spot, where I at the onset of 2022 announced that precious metals would be the great bullish surprise this year. Those who listened, are rocking and rolling – we‘re nowhere near the end of the profitable run! Crude oil is likely to consolidate prior steep gains, and could definitely continue spiking higher. Should it stay comfortably above $125 for months, that would lead to quite some demand destruction. Given that black gold acts as a „shadow Fed funds rate“, let‘s bring up yesterday‘s rate raising thoughts and other relevant snippets: (,,,) If TLT has a message to drive home after the latest Powell pronouncements, it‘s that the odds of a 50bp rate hike in Mar (virtual certainty less than two weeks ago, went down considerably) – it‘s almost a coin toss now, and as the FOMC time approaches, the Fed would probably grow more cautious (read dovish and not hawkish) in its assessments, no matter the commodities appreciation or supply chains status. Yes, neither of these, nor inflation is going away before the year‘s end – they are here to stay for a long time to come. Looking at the events of late, I have to dial back the stock market outlook when it comes to the degree of appreciation till 2022 is over – I wouldn‘t be surprised to see the S&P 500 to retreat slightly vs. the Jan 2022 open. Yes, not even the better 2H 2022 prospects would erase the preceding setback. Which stocks would do best then? Here are my key 4 tips – energy, materials, in general value, and smallcaps. But the true winners of the stagflationary period is of course going to be commodities and precious metals. And that‘s where the bulk of recent gains that I brought you, were concentrated in. More is to come, and it‘s gold and silver that are catching real fire here. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 didn‘t do at all well yesterday, and signs of a short-term bottom are absent. It‘s entirely possible that the brief upswing that I was looking to be selling into to start the week, has been not merely postponed. Credit Markets HYG is clearly on the defensive, and TLT reassessing rate hike prospects – yet, long-dated Treasuries still declined. There is no appetite to buy bonds, and that confirms my thesis of lower lows to be made still in Mar. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals keep doing great, and will likely continue rising no matter what the dollar does – last three days‘ experience confirms that. This is more than mere flight to safety - I‘m looking for further price gains as the upleg has been measured and orderly so far. Crude Oil Crude oil‘s opening gap had been sold into, but we haven‘t seen a reversal yesterday. The upswing can continue, and it would happen on high volatility. I don‘t think we have seen the real spike just yet. Copper For all the above reasons, copper isn‘t rising as fast as other base metals (one of the key engines of commodities appreciation). The run is respectable, and not overheated. $5.00 would remain quite a tough nut to crack – for the time being. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos haven‘t made up their mind yet, but one thing is sure – they aren‘t acting as a safe haven. Given the extent of retreat from Mar highs, it means I‘m looking for not too spectacular performance in the days ahead. Summary S&P 500 missed an opportunity to rise (even if just to open the week on a positive note), and its prospects for today aren‘t way too much brighter. It‘s that practically nothing is giving bullish signals for paper assets, and the market breadth has understandably deteriorated. The rush into precious metals, dollar and commodities remains on – these are the pockets of strength, lifting to a very modest and hidden degree Treasuries as well (these are however reassessing the hawkish Fed prospects) at a time when global growth downgrades are starting to arrive. Pretty serious figures, let me tell you. As I wrote yesterday, stocks may even undershoot prior Thursday‘s lows, but I‘m not looking for that to happen. The sentiment is very negative already, the yield curve keeps compressing, commodities are rising relentlessly, and all we got is a great inflation excuse / smoke screen. Inflation is always a monetary phenomenon, and supply chain disruptions and other geopolitical events can and do exacerbate that. Just having a look at the rising dollar when rate hike prospects are getting dialed back, tells the full risk-off story of the moment, further highlighted by the powder keg that precious metals are. And silver isn‘t yet outperforming copper, which is something I am looking for to change as we go by. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Gold Tries to Hold Above $2000 - Hard Landing Ahead?

Gold Tries to Hold Above $2000 - Hard Landing Ahead?

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 08.03.2022 16:02
  Gold has hit $2,000 but is still struggling to maintain that historical level. It has already tried 8 times - will the ninth attempt succeed? Many indications make this doubtful. Gold is attempting to break above the $2,000 milestone, and miners are trying to break above their declining resistance line. Will they manage to do so, and if so, how long will the rally last? Yesterday, gold didn’t manage to close above the $2,000 level and it’s making another attempt to rally above it in today’s pre-market trading. However, will it be successful? Given the RSI above 70 and the strength of the current resistance, it’s doubtful. In fact, nothing has changed with regard to this likelihood since yesterday, so what I wrote about it in the previous Gold & Silver Trading Alert remains up-to-date: Gold touched $2,000 in today’s pre-market trading, which is barely above its 2021 high and below its 2020 high. Crude oil is way above both analogous levels. In other words, gold underperforms crude oil to a significant extent, just like in 2003. Interestingly, back in 2003, gold topped when crude oil rallied about 40% from its short-term lows (the late-2002 low). What happened next in 2003? Gold declined, and the moment when crude oil started to visibly outperform gold was also the beginning of a big decline in gold stocks. That makes perfect sense on the fundamental level too. Gold miners’ share prices depend on their profits (just like it’s the case with any other company). Crude oil at higher levels means higher costs for the miners (the machinery has to be fueled, the equipment has to be transported, etc.). When costs (crude oil could be viewed as a proxy for them) are rising faster than revenues (gold could be viewed as a proxy for them), miners’ profits appear to be in danger; and investors don’t like this kind of danger, so they sell shares. Of course, there are many more factors that need to be taken into account, but I just wanted to emphasize one way in which the above-mentioned technical phenomenon is justified. Back in 2003, gold stocks wiped out their entire war-concern-based rally, and the biggest part of the decline took just a bit more than a month. Let’s remember that back then, gold stocks were in a very strong medium- and long-term uptrend. Right now, mining stocks remain in a medium-term downtrend, so their decline could be bigger – they could give away their war-concern-based gains and then decline much more. Mining stocks are not declining profoundly yet, but let’s keep in mind that history rhymes – it doesn’t repeat to the letter. As I emphasized previously today, back in 2003 and 2002, the tensions were building for a longer time, and it was relatively clear in advance that the U.S. attack was going to happen. This time, Russia claimed that it wouldn’t attack until the very last minute before the invasion. Consequently, the “we have to act now” is still likely to be present, and the dust hasn’t settled yet – everything appears to be unclear, and thus the markets are not returning to their previous trends. Yet. However, as history shows, that is likely to happen. Either immediately, or shortly, as crude oil is already outperforming gold. The above chart features the GDXJ ETF. As you can see, the junior miners moved to their very strong resistance provided by the declining resistance line. This resistance is further strengthened by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and the previous (late-2021) high. This means that it’s particularly strong, and any breakout here would likely be invalidated shortly. Given the clear sell signal from the RSI indicator, a turnaround here is even more likely. I marked the previous such signals to emphasize their efficiency. When the RSI was above 70, a top was in 6 out of 7 of the recent cases, and the remaining case was shortly before the final top, anyway. This resistance seems to be analogous to the $2,000 level in gold. By the way, please note that gold tried to break above $2,000 several times: twice in August 2020; twice in September 2020 (once moving above it, once moving just near this level); once in November 2020 (moving near this level); once in January 2021 (moving near this level); once in February 2022 (moving near this level). These attempts failed in each of the 7 cases mentioned above. This is the eight attempt. Will this very strong resistance break this time? Given how much crude oil has already soared, and how both markets used to react to war tensions in the case of oil-producing countries, it seems that the days of the rally are numbered. Moving back to the GDXJ ETF, please note that while gold is moving close to its all-time highs, the junior miners are not doing anything like that. In fact, they barely moved slightly above their late-2021 high. They are not even close to their 2021 high, let alone their 2020 high. Instead, junior mining stocks are just a bit above their early-2020 high, from which their prices were more than cut in half in less than a month. In other words, junior miners strongly underperform gold, which is a bearish sign. When gold finally declines – and it’s likely to, as geopolitical events tend to have only a temporary effect on prices, even if they’re substantial – junior miners will probably slide much more than gold. One of the reasons is the likely decline in the general stock market. I recently received a question about the impact the general stock market has on mining stocks, as the latter moved higher despite stocks’ decline in recent weeks. So, let’s take a look at a chart that will feature junior mining stocks, the GLD ETF, and the S&P 500 Index. Before the Ukraine crisis, the link between junior miners and the stock market was clear. Now, it's not as clear, but it’s still present. Juniors only moved to their late-2021 highs, while gold is over $100 above those highs. Juniors underperform significantly, in tune with the stock market's weakness. The gold price is still the primary driver of mining stock prices – including junior mining stocks. After all, that’s what’s either being sold by the company (that produces gold) or in the properties that the company owns and explores (junior miners). As gold prices exploded in the last couple of weeks, junior miners practically had to follow. However, this doesn’t mean that the stock market’s influence is not present nor that it’s going to be unimportant going forward. Conversely, the weak performance of the general stock market likely contributed to junior miners’ weakness relative to gold – the former didn’t rally as much as the latter. Since the weakness in the general stock market is likely to continue, and gold’s rally is likely to be reversed (again, what happened in the case of other military conflicts is in tune with history, not against it), junior miners are likely to decline much more profoundly than gold. Speaking of the general stock market, it just closed at the lowest level since mid-2021. The key thing about the above chart is that what we’ve seen this year is the biggest decline since 2020, and the size of the recent slide is comparable to what we saw as the initial wave down in 2020 – along with the subsequent correction. If these moves are analogous, the recent rebound was perfectly normal – there was one in early 2020 too. This also means that a much bigger decline is likely in the cards in the coming weeks, and that it’s already underway. This would be likely to have a very negative impact on the precious metals market, in particular on junior mining stocks (initially) and silver (a bit later). All in all, it seems that due to the technical resistance in gold and mining stocks, the sizable – but likely temporary (like other geopolitical-event-based-ones) – rally is likely to be reversed shortly. Then, as the situation in the general stock market deteriorates, junior miners would be likely to plunge in a spectacular manner. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Boeing Company Stock News and Forecast: BA slips on Russian supply woes

Boeing Company Stock News and Forecast: BA slips on Russian supply woes

FXStreet News FXStreet News 08.03.2022 16:05
Boeing stock falls as Russian raw material supplies are likely to be in short supply. Boeing earlier said it was suspending buying Russian titanium. BA stocks fell over 6% on Monday as main indices fell over 3%. Boeing (BA) stock slipped on Monday, even disproportionally versus the main market. While the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell in the region of 3% to 4%, Boeing underperformed as it fell just under 6.5%. Boeing Stock News Monday's move took Boeing stock to new 52-week lows as the stock remains pressured in the current risk-off environment. The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that Boeing had suspended purchases of titanium from Russia as the company felt it had enough supply from other sources. “Our inventory and diversity of titanium sources provide sufficient supply for airplane production, and we will continue to take the right steps to ensure long-term continuity,” a Boeing spokeswoman told WSJ. Also on Monday Cowen & Co. lowered their price target for Boeing from $265 to $230. Cowen maintained their outperform rating on Boeing. Breaking Defense had last week reported that Air Force One's replacement was running up to 17 months late, according to two sources. Boeing is the supplier of Air Force One. Boeing will also likely feel headwinds from the current surge in oil prices. While not directly affected, higher oil prices will flow through to higher airfares and a likely reduction in passenger demand. This would see a knock-on but delayed demand for additional planes affecting Boeing and its main competitor, Airbus. However, Boeing does have a large military division. At the end of 2021 the Boeing Defence, Space & Security division accounted for over 33% of total Boeing revenues. The US Department of Defense is the top customer of this division. Boeing Stock Forecast Breaking the 52-week low is significant, and from the weekly chart below we can see how Boeing failed to regain its pre-pandemic levels. This should have been setting off alarm bells as stocks and indices reached all-time highs. The aerospace sector was a special case, but technically this was a bearish signal. BA stock chart, weekly The daily chart outlines the series of bearish lower lows and highs. Any rally to $185 can be used to instigate fresh bearish positions. BA stock chart, daily
Positive News From Europe Supports (BTC) Bitcoin Price - Is $40.000 Coming?

Positive News From Europe Supports (BTC) Bitcoin Price - Is $40.000 Coming?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 08.03.2022 16:05
Bitcoin price action sees bulls storming out of the gate, with BTC bouncing off a $38,073 historical pivot. BTC price set to tick $39,780 intraday in a range-trading profile. Expect to see more upside, should BTC continue its rally from positive signals out of Ukraine, and punch through the 55-day SMA. Bitcoin price action is back on the front foot today as global markets surf positive news of a ceasefire and fresh round of talks between Russia and Ukraine. The lift in positive sentiment spilled over into cryptocurrencies and saw positive prints across the board. Bitcoin was no different, with the price up 2.30% for the day at the time of writing and a possible tick of over 4% profit going into the U.S. session this evening. Bitcoin sees bulls taking over in ceasefire setback for bears Bitcoin price action is whipsawing between $45,000 to the upside and $34,000 to the downside, in a bandwidth that has been drawn since January. With global markets remaining stressed and on edge, today is set to give a sigh of relief and blow off some steam out of the pressure cooker that is Ukraine. Expect to see further decompression going into the U.S. session as this positive news gets picked up and translated into another round of bullish uplift for the cryptocurrency. BTC price is set to tick $39,780 and will try to break the high of last weekend. But bulls will immediately face another level of resistance, with the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $40,250, and the $40,000 level in the way. Add to that the monthly pivot at $41,000 – so within a $1,000 – and there are three bearish elements capable of cutting short any attempts for further upside if no additional relief catalysts are added to the current headlines. BTC/USD daily chart Over the weekend, a ceasefire was already tried but failed after just a few minutes. Should that be the case again, expect this to break the fragile trust that has been in place now since recent talks yesterday. Expect BTC price action to be pushed back to $38,073 a drop of around 4%.
Ukraine’s Defense Shines ‒ and So Does Gold

Ukraine’s Defense Shines ‒ and So Does Gold

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 08.03.2022 17:37
  Russian forces have made minimal progress against Ukraine in recent days. Unlike the invader, gold rallied very quickly and achieved its long-awaited target - $2000! Nobody expected the Russian inquisition! Nobody expected such a fierce Ukrainian defense, either. Of course, the situation is still very dramatic. Russian troops continued their offensive and – although the pace slowed down considerably – they managed to make some progress, especially in southern Ukraine, by bolstering air defense and supplies. The invaders are probably preparing for the decisive assault on Kyiv. Where Russian soldiers can’t break the defense, they bomb civilian infrastructure and attack ordinary people, including targeting evacuation corridors, to spread terror. Several Ukrainian cities are besieged and their inhabitants lack basic necessities. The humanitarian crisis intensifies. However, Russian forces made minimal ground advances over recent days, and it’s highly unlikely that Russia has successfully achieved its planned objectives to date. According to the Pentagon, nearly all of the Russian troops that were amassed on Ukraine’s border are already fighting inside the country. Meanwhile, the international legion was formed and started its fight for Ukraine. Moreover, Western countries have recently supplied Ukraine with many hi-tech military arms and equipment, including helicopters, anti-tank weapons, and anti-aircraft missiles, which could be crucial in boosting the Ukrainian defense.   Implications for Gold What does the war in Ukraine imply for the precious metals? Well, gold is shining almost as brightly as the Ukrainian defense. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal has surged above $1,980 on Monday (March 7, 2022), the highest level since August 2020. What’s more, as the next chart shows, during today’s early trading, gold has soared above $2,020 for a while, reaching almost an all-time high. In my most recent report, I wrote: “as long as the war continues, the yellow metal may shine (…). The continuation or escalation of Russia’s military actions could provide support for gold prices.” This is exactly what we’ve been observing. This is not surprising. The war has increased the safe-haven demand for gold, while investors have become more risk-averse and have continued selling equities. As you can see in the chart below, the S&P 500 Index has plunged more than 12% since its peak in early January. Some of the released funds went to the gold market. What’s more, the credit spreads have widened, while the real interest rates have declined. Both these trends are fundamentally positive for the yellow metal. Another bullish driver of gold prices is inflation. It’s already high, and the war in Ukraine will only add to the upward pressure. The oil price has jumped above $120 per barrel, almost reaching a record peak. Higher energy prices would translate into higher CPI readings in the near future. Other commodities are also surging. For example, the Food Price Index calculated by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has soared above 140 in February, which is a new all-time high, as the chart below shows. Higher commodity prices could lead to social unrest, as was the case with the Arab Spring or recent protests in Kazakhstan. Higher energy prices and inflation imply slower real GDP growth and more stagflationary conditions. As a reminder, in 2008 we saw rapidly rising commodities, which probably contributed to the Great Recession. In such an environment, it’s far from clear that the Fed will be very hawkish. It will probably hike the federal funds rate in March, as expected, but it may soften its stance later amid the conflict between Ukraine and the West with Russia and elevated geopolitical risks. The more dovish Fed should also be supportive of gold prices. However, when the fighting cools off, the fear will subside, and we could see a correction in the gold market. Both sides are exhausted by the conflict and don’t want to continue it forever. The Russian side has already softened its stance a bit during the most recent round of negotiations, as it probably realized that a military breakthrough was unlikely. Hence, when the conflict ends, gold’s current tailwind could turn into a headwind. Having said that, the impact of the conflict may not be as short-lived this time. I'm referring to the relatively harsh sanctions and high energy prices that may last for some time after the war is over. . The same applies to a more hawkish stance toward Russia and European governments’ actions to become less dependent on Russian gas and oil. A lot depends on how the conflict will be resolved, and whether it brings us Cold War 2.0. However, two things are certain: the world has already changed geopolitically, and at the beginning of this new era, the fundamental outlook for gold has turned more bullish than before the war. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Consolidates Gains - 09.03.2022

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Consolidates Gains - 09.03.2022

John Benjamin John Benjamin 09.03.2022 08:47
USDJPY breaks higherThe Japanese yen softened after weaker-than-expected GDP in Q4. Despite choppiness in recent price action, confidence in the greenback remains high.A failed attempt at the supply zone (115.80) suggests a lack of momentum, but a swift bounce off 114.65 reveals strong enough buying interest.A bullish breakout would lead to the double top at 116.35. Its breach could end the two-month-long consolidation and trigger an extended rally towards January 2017’s highs around 118.00. 115.40 is fresh support.AUDUSD seeks supportThe Australian dollar stalls as commodity prices consolidate. The rally above 0.7310, a major supply area, has weakened selling pressure and put the pair on a bullish reversal course.The Aussie’s parabolic ascent and an overbought RSI prompted short-term buyers to take profit. As the RSI swings back into the oversold zone, the bulls may see the current fallback as an opportunity to stake in.0.7380 is a fresh resistance and 0.7250 is the immediate support. Further below 0.7170 is a critical level to keep the rebound valid.UK 100 sees limited bounceThe FTSE 100 struggles as the UK plans to ban Russian energy imports.On the daily chart, a break below the demand zone (6850) wiped out 11-months worth of gains and signaled a strong bearish bias. The RSI’s oversold situation may cause a temporary rebound, but a bearish MA cross could attract more selling interest.The liquidation is yet to end as medium-term buyers scramble for the exit. 7200 is a fresh resistance and 7450 is a major supply zone. A drop below 6800 may lead to 6500.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Has Increased By 8.7%, Ether (ETH) Has Gone Up By 7.9%, XRP Has Added 3.3%, Terra +21%

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Has Increased By 8.7%, Ether (ETH) Has Gone Up By 7.9%, XRP Has Added 3.3%, Terra +21%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 09.03.2022 08:43
The last bitcoin growth impulse confirmed the break of the downtrend: the chart confidently rebounded from the former upper limit of the downtrend trading range. However, as before in March, a consolidation above the previous highs in the area of $45K is required to confirm a break in the trend. As Ethereum dropped to a 10-day low, traders started buying put options in anticipation of the second cryptocurrency falling to $2,200. On March 14, the European Parliament will approve the final version of the bill on the regulation of cryptocurrencies without wording that could be interpreted as a potential ban on bitcoin mining. US President Biden will also sign an executive order to regulate cryptocurrencies this week. The focus may be on tracking transactions and preventing circumvention of US sanctions. The cost of bitcoin in rubles has updated its historical highs, exceeding 5 million rubles. Bitcoin was not so expensive even in April and November 2021, when its price in dollars exceeded $60,000. In general, the benchmark cryptocurrency has jumped by 8.7% over the past day, to 41,450. Ethereum has added 7.9% over the same time, while other leading altcoins from the top ten show growth from 3.3% (XRP) to 21% (Terra). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market grew by 6.9% over the day, to $1.83 trillion. The dominance index jumped to 43%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index rose 1 point to 22, remaining in "extreme fear" territory.Bitcoin was bought on the decline to $38K, and the move to $40K on Wednesday morning caused a surge in buying, probably associated with the closing of part of the short positions, quickly bringing the rate to current values.
Crypto Update: Buyers Return, Solana Avalanche focus

Crypto Update: Buyers Return, Solana Avalanche focus

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 09.03.2022 07:08
Today, Crypto markets continue to see plenty of fresh demand, taking this week’s fightback to two days. Strong buying is a good turn for holders and buyers as price has been beaten down in recent weeks due to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. For many coins, yesterday’s finish was far from confident, but that’s a memory at this point today with quite a modest double-digit percentage gains at the moment. The top 10 and 25 are all in the mix, and the indexes of those coins are a healthy +6% higher. One might have been a little worried about external factors like Bidens crypto executive order and the ongoing conflict in Europe. Biden is set to release the order this week, and traders will be watching with interest in the details and how it could change the way the U.S. treats digital assets. Today we are looking at two of the top 20. These two coins are favourites of the market but not in the top five. Solana SOLUSD – currently price is trading 8% higher back above $88. For now, buyer momentum looks firm, and we need to see price hold above 80.60 support. This is the base of our expectations on the buy-side, and a break below that level writes off the other patterns we are watching. Overall, we can see that price is in a descending triangle pattern and an ending diagonal pattern. Both of these can be seen as breakout patterns if confirmed by a new move out of them. But we have to see support hold. Avalanche AVAXUSD is one of my favourite coins just due to how much it can move. It reminds me of some of the wilder FX and index markets. AVAX has traded as much as 9.88% higher, retaking $79. AVAX, like SOL has key support to defend, but we can see a break of the downtrend with a range in play and a new uptrend continuing to set up. We want to see 71.10 remain in play as support. A break below changes the picture, but while this level remains held, we will look for further upside. 85.55 looks like the next level of resistance if reached. The post Crypto Update: Buyers Return, Solana Avalanche focus appeared first on Eightcap.
Russia-Ukraine is there any hope for the markets

Russia-Ukraine is there any hope for the markets

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 09.03.2022 11:23
The Russian rouble remains under pressure, while all the new controls on currency transactions in Russia are alienating the exchange rate at home and on global FX. The 12% commission on currency purchases explains the difference between the external and domestic exchange rates. That said, one must realise that "catching the bottom" of the ruble is hardly wise when new sanctions are imposed almost on a daily basis. The economic landslide continues with extreme speed. Across the other EM markets, there is a concern or even pessimism about the medium-term outlook, and some relative easing of the fear level is striking in the stock markets today. Commodity markets, which continued their move towards new extremes yesterday, have encountered substantial selling, which continues today. Some reduction in the excitement can be attributed to hopes of progress towards a peaceful resolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.Nevertheless, the conditions already prevailing in commodity markets are putting serious pressure on EM equities and currencies. EM populations are more vulnerable to soaring basic food and energy prices and currencies to capital outflows due to flight to safety. All of this is tightening financial conditions is undermining the economic recovery that investors had hoped for at the start of the year because of the retreat of the pandemic. While the end of last year and the beginning of this one were sentiments that growth momentum was shifting from the US to Europe and emerging markets, events in recent weeks have not only returned EM markets to the downward trend but again show that US markets are the best refuge for capital. For example, Chinese indices are losing 35% (Hang Seng) to 43% (China H-star) from their February 2021 peak. And this trend will not quickly reverse even if the military conflict in Eastern Europe ends right now because economic and reputational damage has already been done, which will take months or even years to undo.
Crude Oil may have played its game

Crude Oil may have played its game

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 09.03.2022 11:33
A barrel of Oil on the spot market briefly topped $130 for Brent and $125 for WTI, having retreated to $127 and $121, respectively, by the start of European trading. Oil received its latest boost on expectations that the US will announce an embargo on Russian energy imports. Traders took short-term profits on Biden's speech, which kept Oil from rising further. On the sellers' side was also news that the UK was unable to repeat the US move and is instead set to halt energy imports from Russia before the end of the year. Biden also noted that many European countries would not be able to stop buying Russian Oil and Gas any time soon because of their heavy reliance on them.The latest comments have somewhat dampened pressure on the Oil price, as have earlier International Energy Agency calculations on ways to reduce Europe's energy consumption from Russia by up to 80% as early as this year. Such plans often over-idealise the possibility of a coordinated effort, but their mere appearance has a stabilising effect on the market. For its part, Russia has also worked to prove its role as a reliable energy supplier, loading Crude Oil at ports in line with the schedule.Nevertheless, markets continue to face an increased risk premium, and Russian Oil struggles to find new buyers. The UAE and Saudi Arabia try to use the situation to their advantage, refusing to cooperate with the US to increase oil supplies. Iran is haggling for more favourable terms on the nuclear deal. Russia, the architect of the deal, has suddenly become an obstacle to it, demanding legal guarantees from the US that sanctions will not affect Russian-Iranian trade, thereby trying to thwart the US attempts to increase oil supply in countries where US sanctions limit production.We would venture to guess that all existing conditions are already built into the Oil quotes, and its price is now near a ceiling for the coming weeks and months. From here, we could see the establishment of a fairly broad corridor of $95-130 per barrel for Brent for the foreseeable future. This is a vast range, reflecting the outlook's persistence of extreme volatility and extreme uncertainty.
Ringing the Bell

Ringing the Bell

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 09.03.2022 16:03
S&P 500 once again gave up intraday gains, and credit markets confirmed the decline. Value down significantly more than tech, risk-off anywhere you look. For days without end, but the reprieve can come on seemingly little to no positive news, just when the sellers exhaust themselves and need to regroup temporarily. We‘re already seeing signs of such a respite in precious metals and commodities – be it the copper downswing, oil unable to break $130, or miners not following gold much higher yesterday. Corn and wheat also consolidated – right or wrong, the market seeks to anticipate some relief from Eastern Europe.The big picture though hasn‘t changed:(…) credit markets … posture is very risk-off, and the rush to commodities goes on. With a little check yesterday on the high opening prices in crude oil and copper, but still. My favorite agrifoods picks of late, wheat and corn, are doing great, and the pressure within select base metals, is building up – such as (for understandable reasons) in nickel and aluminum. Look for more to come, especially there where supply is getting messed with (this doesn‘t concern copper to such a degree, explaining its tepid price gains).And I‘m not talking even the brightest spot, where I at the onset of 2022 announced that precious metals would be the great bullish surprise this year. Those who listened, are rocking and rolling – we‘re nowhere near the end of the profitable run! Crude oil is likely to consolidate prior steep gains, and could definitely continue spiking higher. Should it stay comfortably above $125 for months, that would lead to quite some demand destruction. Given that black gold acts as a „shadow Fed funds rate“, ......its downswing would contribute to providing the Fed with an excuse not to hike in Mar by 50bp. After the prior run up in the price of black gold that however renders such an excuse a verbal exercise only, the Fed remains between a rock and hard place, and the inflationary fires keep raging on.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is reaching for the Feb 24 lows, and may find respite at this level. The upper knot though would need a solid close today (above 4,250) to be of short-term significance. Remember, the market remains very much headline sensitive.Credit MarketsHYG clearly remains on the defensive, but the sellers may need a pause here, if volume is any guide. Bonds are getting beaten, and the outlook remains negative to neutral for the weeks ahead. Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals keep doing great, but a pause is knocking on the door. Not a reversal, a pause. Gold and silver are indeed the go-to assets in the current situation, and miners agree wholeheartedly.Crude OilCrude oil is having trouble extending gains, and the consolidation I mentioned yesterday, approaches. I do not think however that this is the end of the run higher.CopperCopper is pausing already, and this underperformer looks very well bid above $4.60. Let the red metal build a base, and continue rising next, alongside the rest of the crowd.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos upswing equals more risk appetite? It could be so, looking at the dollar‘s chart (I‘m talking that in the summary of today‘s analysis).SummaryEvery dog has its day, and the S&P 500‘s one might be coming today or tomorrow. It‘s that the safe havens of late (precious metals, commodities and the dollar) are having trouble extending prior steep gains further. These look to be in for a brief respite that would be amplified on any possible news of deescalation. In such an environment, risk taking would flourish at expense of gold, silver and oil especially. I don‘t think so we have seen the tops – precious metals are likely to do great on the continued inflation turning into stagflation (GDP growth figures being downgraded), and commodities are set to further benefit from geopolitics (among much else).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
How You Can Minimize Trading Risk & Grow Capital During A Global Crisis

How You Can Minimize Trading Risk & Grow Capital During A Global Crisis

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 09.03.2022 22:39
To minimize trading risk and grow capital during a global crisis is somewhat hinged on the answers to speculative questions. How long will the Russia – Ukraine war last? How high is the price of oil and gas going to go? How quickly will central banks raise interest rates to counter high inflation? What assets should I put my money into? Knowing what the Best Asset Now (BAN) is, is critical for risk management and consistent growth no matter the market condition!‘BUY THE DIP’ or ‘SELL THE RALLY’? - DJI Weekly ChartAs of 3/8/22, YTD returns are: DJIA -10.20%, S&P 500 -12.49%, Nasdaq 100 -18.70%The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded as high as 36952.65 on January 5, 2022The DJIA put in a Covid 2020 Low of 18213.65 on March 23, 2020. When you double the price of this significant low, you get a price of 36427.30, which the DJIA reached on November 4, 2021. This was precisely 591 calendar days from the 2020 low. The 200% level seems to have capped the bull rally. If, in fact, this is the top and the start of a bear market, we should experience high volatility both up and down. However, the highs and lows should be lower as the market begins to trend lower. The volatility will also continue to increase as the market deflates and continues to lose capital.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! It appears this scenario may very well coincide with the fundamental current events of high inflation, central banks unable to add stimulus, having to raise their interest rates, and current/future geopolitical events.What-To-Do Before the Storm Hits“Have A Plan and Stick-To-Your-Plan”There are some basic strategies or practices that professional traders utilize to minimize trading risk and grow capital. Here are a few ideas:Bull/Bear Markets – In an upmarket, you should buy the dips. In a down market, you should do the opposite and sell the rallies. Rallies in a down 'bear' market tend to be very fast and short-lived.Diversification – Don't have your eggs in too many baskets. It is better to navigate thru a storm by focusing your resources specifically rather than generally.Leverage – Reduce leverage, position size, or know how you will respond to different percentage losses or gains. Understand what your investment objective is as well as your tolerance for risk. If you're having trouble sleeping at night, you should reduce your holdings to the place where you are comfortable.Leverage is a mathematical equation, and it does not have to be 1x, 2x, etc. It can also be 0.75x, 0.50x, etc. You get to decide what's best for you and your family. Leverage is also a double-edged sword! Be careful, especially when the markets are on edge and volatile.Where is the Institutional Money Going?The global currency market, otherwise known as Forex or FX, is the largest market in the world. According to the BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey, published on December 8, 2019, by the Bank for International Settlements, it has an average daily transactional volume of $6.6 trillion.By tracking global money flow, we can get a pretty good idea of where the smart money is going. For now, let’s see what has happened during the last 6-months.According to www.finviz.com, we notice that the US Dollar, despite its Covid stimulus spending spree, was the preferred currency. However, the Eurodollar has seen substantial outflows decreasing by -7.60%, which is entirely understandable with the Russia – Ukraine War at their doorstep.Global central banks ponder how quickly to raise interest rates in order to curb high inflation!According to TradingEconomics, the current global interest rates by major country are: United States 0.25%, Japan -0.10%, Switzerland -0.75%, Euro Region 0.00%, United Kingdom 0.50%, Canada 0.50%, and Australia 0.10%.The US Federal Reserve may have been looking to raise interest rates by as much as 50 basis points at its next policy meeting. However, given Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the FED may become more cautious and consider raising interest rates by only 25 basis points on March 15-16. We need to pay close attention to this high-impact market event.What strategies can help you minimize trading risk and grow capital?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Minimizing risk in order to grow your capital must remain a primary focus for all investors and traders. Now is the time to keep your eye on the ball!I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Crude Oil (WTI) Price Changes, Another Part Of Russia-Ukraine Negotiations Incoming

Crude Oil (WTI) Price Changes, Another Part Of Russia-Ukraine Negotiations Incoming

FXStreet News FXStreet News 09.03.2022 16:19
Better sounding newsflow regarding the possibility of a diplomatic solution to the Russo-Ukraine war is weighing heavily on crude oil. Talks between the Russian and Ukrainian Foreign Ministers on Thursday will be key. WTI is currently down more than $7.50 as traders also mull a possible US/Iran nuclear deal and further reserve releases. A slightly more conciliatory tone to the rhetoric from Ukrainian and Russian officials regarding the possibility of a diplomatic solution to the war ahead of Thursday’s meeting of the two nations’ Foreign Ministers in Turkey has seen oil markets plunge. Russia said on Wednesday that “some progress” had been made with Ukraine and laid out a potential territorial compromise, while a Ukrainian official close to President Zelenskyy hinted that Russian demands for “neutrality” can be discussed. Front-month WTI futures have subsequently tanked nearly $6.50 per barrel on the session to near the $118 level, a near $12 turnaround from Tuesday’s highs near $130. Traders also said that markets were taking a more relaxed view on the US ban on Russian oil imports announced on Tuesday and that this was weighing on prices. “Theoretically, the US could even offset the outages from Russia with its own production,” said an analyst at Commerzbank. Elsewhere, some traders cited expectations for more oil reserve releases as triggering profit-taking after the head of the International Energy Agency hinted that last week’s decision by member nations to release 60M barrels could be the first of further releases. As oil traders continue to juggle numerous competing themes, choppy market conditions are likely here to stay for some time. With Iran’s chief negotiator in the nuclear talks having arrived back in Vienna on Wednesday to continue discussions, it may well be that a deal is imminent, despite recent concerns that the Russians were adding additional demands. A deal would pave the way for over 1.3M barrels in daily Iranian crude oil exports to return to global markets. In the more immediate future, focus will return to the global crude oil inventory situation with the release of weekly official US data at 1530GMT.
How Will The Next Events Around Russia-Ukraine Conflict Affect Markets?

How Will The Next Events Around Russia-Ukraine Conflict Affect Markets?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 09.03.2022 16:19
Russia's denial of wanting to overthrow Ukraine's government has boosted the market mood. Ongoing bombing, accusations of using biological weapons may come to haunt markets. The safe-haven dollar and gold have room to recover after the recent slide. All markets are saying, is give peace a chance – paraphrasing John Lennon's song, that is what is going on, with stocks and risk currencies rising while safe-haven assets are tumbling down. However, it may become worse before it becomes better. The latest bout of optimism stems from Russia's statement that it does not seek to overthrow Ukraine's government and its preference to resolve differences via discussions. The Kremlin added that it has never threatened and does not threaten NATO. These olive branches join Tuesday's news that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signaled he is willing to give up NATO membership and the upcoming meeting of the two countries foreign ministers planned for Thursday in Turkey. On the ground, a humanitarian ceasefire is in effect in several Ukrainian cities on Wednesday, and civilians are begin evacuated, so far safely. Markets have reacted positively to these developments, with S&P futures jumping by 2%, EUR/USD jumping by some 80 pips, and safe havens such as gold and the dollar suffering significant falls. Is the war nearing its end? Not so fast. Reasons to worry First, Russia continues bombing Kyiv and is likely using this day of relative calm to regroup and resupply its troops, which have suffered massive logistical failures. Several of the previous ceasefires were not respected and this may happen again. Secondly, Russia's statements are also one that the US has declared economic war on it. Such comments contradict the better vibes that have previously boosted the market mood. Russia also accuses its enemy of developing biological weapons, in what seems like an excuse to intensify attacks. Third, Ukrainian President Zelensky called on Russian troops to "surrender while you still can" and that "we will answer in full for all our killed people" – militant statements are not exclusive to one side. The war will eventually end, hopefully, sooner rather than later. However, it seems overoptimistic to circle Wednesday as the beginning of the end, and that everything improves from here. Another escalation may come shortly, souring the market mood and boosting the safe-haven gold and dollar. Moreover, with every day that passes, the damage to the global economy increases. While shortages of energy have yet to be seen – prices are rising without any stop in the flow of oil or gas – food issues may become a burden for the global economy. Russia and Ukraine produce a vast amount of wheat and barley, which are now blocked. That is already raising food prices. And while the war continues, so do new Western sanctions. The EU has approved a new list of restrictions on Russian leaders and oligarchs, and also disconnect several Belarusian banks from the SWIFT payments system. All in all, it will likely get worse before it becomes better and that means another rush to the dollar and gold.
Crypto Update: Bitcoin (BTC) Has Lost 5.6%, Ether (ETH) Has Decreased By 4.8%, Terra (LUNA) Has Lost 1% And AVAX Has Gone Down As Well

Crypto Update: Bitcoin (BTC) Has Lost 5.6%, Ether (ETH) Has Decreased By 4.8%, Terra (LUNA) Has Lost 1% And AVAX Has Gone Down As Well

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 10.03.2022 08:33
Bitcoin soared 8.8% on Wednesday, ending the day around $41.9K. Apparently, the benchmark cryptocurrency experienced clear problems with growth above $42K. On Thursday morning we see an equally strong reversal move back to $39K. As a result, Bitcoin lost 5.6% in 24hours Ethereum - 4.8%, other leading altcoins from the top ten are declining from 1% (Terra) to 7.2% (Avalanche).According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 4.5% over the day, to $1.75 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index dropped from 43.0% to 42.7%.The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index added 6 points to 28, climbing into “fear” territory.Bitcoin's growth momentum was also supported by the positive dynamics of stock indices, however, on Thursday morning, the positive pull on them remains in contrast to the sell-off of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin jumped when a statement by Janet Yellen appeared on the website of the US Department of the Treasury, which does not contain strict measures to control the field of cryptocurrencies. The statement was posted, probably prematurely, and then quickly removed from the site.Later on Wednesday, US President Joe Biden signed the first executive order to regulate cryptocurrencies in the country. The document contained only the most general provisions, such as consumer protection, financial stability, technology development and the illegal use of cryptocurrencies. More specific measures in the field of control over the digital asset market will be developed by individual federal departments. In our opinion, the States are making it clear that they will not allow cryptocurrencies to become a shadow business and be used to circumvent sanctions, taxes, money laundering and similar things. Such control is more difficult to implement than with centrally issued fiat money.    
EURUSD Rallies, GBPUSD Moves Up A Little, USOIL Goes Back To "Normal" (?) Levels

EURUSD Rallies, GBPUSD Moves Up A Little, USOIL Goes Back To "Normal" (?) Levels

Jing Ren Jing Ren 10.03.2022 08:43
EURUSD bounces back The euro rallies on news that the EU may issue a joint bond to fund energy and defense. The pair found bids near May 2020’s lows (1.0810). An oversold RSI on the daily chart prompted sellers to take profit, easing the downward pressure. A rally above the immediate resistance at 1.0940 and a bullish MA cross may improve sentiment in the short term. However, buyers will need to clear the support-turned-resistance at 1.1160 before they could hope for a meaningful rebound. 1.0910 is the support in case of a pullback. GBPUSD inches higher The sterling claws back losses as risk appetite makes a timid return across the board. Following a three-month-long rebound on the daily chart, a lack of support at 1.3200 and a bearish MA cross shows strong selling pressure. A bounce-back above 1.3200 may only offer temporary relief as sellers potentially look to fade the rebound. 1.3350 is a key hurdle that sits along the 20-day moving average. 1.3080 is fresh support and its breach could trigger a new round of sell-off below the next daily support at 1.2880. USOIL breaks support WTI crude tumbled after the UAE said consider boosting production. The parabolic climb came to a halt at 129.00 and pushed the RSI into an extremely overbought condition on the daily chart. A bearish RSI divergence suggested a loss of momentum and foreshadowed a correction as traders would be wary of chasing the rally. A fall below 115.00 led buyers to bail out, triggering a wave of liquidation. 105.00 is the next support and a breakout could bring the price back to 95.00 near the 30-day moving average.
Not Passing Smell Test

Not Passing Smell Test

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 10.03.2022 16:01
S&P 500 tech driven upswing makes the advance a bit suspect, and prone to consolidation. I would have expected value to kick in to a much greater degree given the risk-on posture in the credit markets. The steep downswing in commodities and precious metals doesn‘t pass the smell test for me – just as there were little cracks in the dam warning of short-term vulnerability at the onset of yesterday, the same way there are signs of the resulting downswing being overdone now.And that has consequences for the multitude of open positions – the PMs and commodities super bull runs are on, and the geopolitics still support the notion of the next spike.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 turned around, and the volume isn‘t raising too many eyebrows. However, the bulls should have tempered price appreciation expectations, to put it politely...Credit MarketsHYG turned around, but isn‘t entirely convincing yet. We saw an encouraging first step towards risk-on turn that requires that the moves continue, which is unlikely today – CPI is here, and unlikely to disappoint the inflationistas.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals downswing looks clearly overdone, and I continue calling for a shallow, $1,980 - $2,000 range consolidation next. This gives you an idea not to expect steep silver discounts either. Miner are clear, and holding up nicely.Crude OilCrude oil downswing came, arguably way too steep one. Even oil stocks turned down in spite of the S&P 500 upswing, which is odd. I‘m looking for gradual reversal of yesterday‘s weakness in both.CopperCopper has made one of its odd moves on par with the late Jan long red candle one – I‘m looking for the weakness to be reversed, and not only in the red metal but within commodities as such.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are giving up yesterday‘s upswing – they are dialing back the risk-on turn and rush out of the safe havens of late.SummaryThe S&P 500 dog indeed just had its day, but the price appreciation prospects are not looking too bright for today. With attention turning to CPI, and yesterday‘s „hail mary decline aka I don‘t need you anymore“ in the safe havens of late (precious metals, crude oil, wheat, and the dollar to name just a few) getting proper scrutiny, I‘m looking for gradual return to strength in all things real (real assets) – it‘s my reasonable assumption that the markets won‘t get surprised by an overwhelmingly positive headline from Eastern Europe at this point. Focusing on the underlying fundamentals and charts, I don‘t think so we have seen the real asset tops – precious metals are likely to do great on the continued inflation turning into stagflation (GDP growth figures being downgraded), and commodities are set to further benefit from geopolitics (among much else).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
NZDUSD Trades Higher, XAGUSD Nears $25.50-26 Range, US 30 Chart Shows Fluctuations

NZDUSD Trades Higher, XAGUSD Nears $25.50-26 Range, US 30 Chart Shows Fluctuations

Jing Ren Jing Ren 11.03.2022 07:40
NZDUSD consolidates gains The New Zealand dollar inched higher supported by roaring commodity prices. A break above the daily resistance at 0.6890 has put the kiwi back on track in the medium term. A bullish MA cross on the daily chart suggests an acceleration to the upside. As sentiment improves, the bulls may see the current consolidation as an opportunity to accumulate. A close above 0.6920 would extend the rally to 0.7050. 0.6800 is the first support and 0.6730 over the 30-day moving average a key demand zone. XAGUSD seeks support Silver consolidates amid ongoing geopolitical instability. A bearish RSI divergence suggests a deceleration in the rally. A tentative break below 25.40 has prompted some buyers to take profit. While sentiment remains optimistic, a correction might be necessary for the bulls to take a breather. The psychological level of 25.00 is a major demand zone. Its breach could send the precious metal to 24.30 which sits on the 30-day moving average. A rally above 26.90 could propel the price to last May’s highs around 28.50. US 30 struggles for buyers The Dow Jones 30 turned south after talks between Russia and Ukraine stalled again. A rebound above 34000 has provided some relief. Nonetheless, enthusiasm could be short-lived after the index gave up all recent gains. The prospect of a bear market looms if this turns out to be a dead cat bounce. A fall below 32300 could trigger another round of liquidation and push the Dow to a 12-month low at 30800. On the upside, 33500 is the first resistance. The bulls will need to lift offers around 34100 before they could attract more followers.
The War Is on for Two Weeks. How Does It Affect Gold?

The War Is on for Two Weeks. How Does It Affect Gold?

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 10.03.2022 17:21
  With each day of the Russian invasion, gold confirms its status as the safe-haven asset. Its long-term outlook has become more bullish than before the war. Two weeks have passed since the Russian attack on Ukraine. Two weeks of the first full-scale war in Europe in the 21th century, something I still can’t believe is happening. Two weeks of completely senseless conflict between close Slavic nations, unleashed without any reasonable justification and only for the sake of Putin’s imperial dreams and his vision of Soviet Reunion. Two weeks of destruction, terror, and death that captured the souls of thousands of soldiers and hundreds of civilians, including dozens of children. Just yesterday, Russian forces bombed a maternity hospital in southern Ukraine. I used to be a fan of Russian literature and classic music (who doesn’t like Tolstoy or Tchaikovsky?), but the systematic bombing of civilian areas (and the use of thermobaric missiles) makes me doubt whether the Russians really belong to the family of civilized nations. Now, for the warzone report. The country’s capital and largest cities remain in the hands of the Ukrainians. Russian forces are drawing reserves, deploying conscript troops to Ukraine to replace great losses. They are still trying to encircle Kyiv. They are also strengthening their presence around the city of Mykolaiv in southern Ukraine. However, the Ukrainian army heroically holds back enemy attacks in all directions. The defense is so effective that the large Russian column north-west of Kyiv has made little progress in over a week, while Russian air activity has significantly decreased in recent days.   Implications for Gold How has the war, that has been going on for already two weeks, affected the gold market so far? Well, as the chart below shows, the military conflict was generally positive for the yellow metal, boosting its price from $1,905 to $1989, or about 4.4%. Please note that initially the price of gold jumped, only to decline after a while, and only then rallied, reaching almost $2,040 on Tuesday (March 8, 2022). However, the price has retreated since then, below the key level of $2,000. This is partially a normal correction after an impressive upward move. It’s also possible that the markets are starting to smell the end of the war. You see, Russian forces can’t break through the Ukrainian defense. They can continue besieging cities, but the continuation of the invasion entails significant costs, and Russia’s economy is already sinking. Hence, they can either escalate the conflict in a desperate attempt to conquer Kyiv – according to the White House, Russia could conduct a chemical or biological weapon attack in Ukraine – or try to negotiate the ceasefire. In recent days, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, said he was open to a compromise with Russia. Today, the Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers met in Turkey for the first time since the horror started (unfortunately, without any agreement). However, although gold prices may consolidate for a while or even fall if the prospects of the de-escalation increase, the long-term fundamentals have turned more bullish. As you can see in the chart below, the real interest rates decreased amid the prospects of higher inflation and slower economic growth. Russia and Ukraine are key exporters of many commodities, including oil, which would increase the production costs and bring us closer to stagflation. What’s next, risk aversion increased significantly, which is supportive of safe-haven assets such as gold. After all, Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine is a turning point in modern history, which ends a period of civilized relations with Russia and relative safety in the world. Although Russia’s army discredited itself in Ukraine, the country still has nuclear weapons able to destroy the globe. As you can see in the chart below, both the credit spreads (represented here by the ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread) and the CBOE volatility index (also called “the fear index”) rose considerably in the last two weeks. Hence, the long-term outlook for gold is more bullish than before the invasion. The short-term future is more uncertain, as there might be periods of consolidation and even corrections if the conflict de-escalates or ends. However, given the lack of any decisions during today’s talks between Ukrainian and Russian foreign ministers and the continuation of the military actions, gold may rally further. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
S&P 500 – Should We Buy the Dip? - 10.03.2022

S&P 500 – Should We Buy the Dip? - 10.03.2022

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 10.03.2022 15:40
  Stock prices remain very volatile, as the Ukraine conflict keeps dominating headlines. Will the market reverse its downtrend? The S&P 500 index gained 2.57% on Wednesday, Mar. 9, as it retraced some of the recent decline. The broad stock market’s gauge got back to the 4,300 level after bouncing from its Tuesday’s low of 4,157.87. On Feb. 24 the index fell to the local low of 4,114.65 and it was 704 points or 14.6% below the January 4 record high of 4,818.62. There’s still a lot of uncertainty concerning the ongoing Ukraine conflict. This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 1.3% lower and we may see further consolidation. The nearest important resistance level is now at 4,300, and the next resistance level is at 4,350-4,400, among others. On the other hand, the support level remains at 4,150-4,200. The S&P 500 index continues to trade above the recently broken downward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract – More Consolidation Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. Recently it broke below the short-term consolidation. On Tuesday it fell to around 4,150, before bouncing back to the 4,200-4,250 level. We are still maintaining our long position, as we are expecting an upward correction from the current levels (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index bounced yesterday, but this morning it is expected to open lower. We will likely see some more news-driven volatility. For now, it looks like an upward correction but it may also be a more meaningful upward reversal. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index retraced some of the recent decline, but we may see more volatility. We are maintaining our long position. We are expecting an upward correction from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Crypto Update: Bitcoin Price Has Decreased By 1%, ETH Hasn't Fluctuate Much. XRP Has Gone Up By 1.6%

Crypto Update: Bitcoin Price Has Decreased By 1%, ETH Hasn't Fluctuate Much. XRP Has Gone Up By 1.6%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 11.03.2022 08:37
Bitcoin fell 5.4% on Thursday, ending the day near $39.6K, and further to $38.9K on Friday morning, down 1% in 24 hours. Ethereum has remained almost unchanged over the same time (-0.3%), while other leading altcoins from the first are changing in different directions, from a 1.6% increase (XRP) to a 1% decrease (BNB). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market sank by 0.2% over the day to $1.74 trillion. The bitcoin dominance index continues to decline, falling from 42.7% yesterday to 42.4% due to the greater stability of altcoins. The crypto-currency index of fear and greed lost 6 points in a day to 22, again entering the territory of "extreme fear". Bitcoin fully returned the growth of Wednesday, which was caused by the adoption in the United States of the first document on the regulation of cryptocurrencies. The decline in stock indices and the growth of the dollar also did not favour the purchases of the first cryptocurrency, which often moves in unison with the general demand for risks. The first decree on cryptocurrencies signed the day before can become the basis for future US legislation on regulating relations in the crypto sphere. Against this background, the shares of companies associated with cryptocurrencies have noticeably risen in price. One of the largest investment banks, Goldman Sachs, is going to expand its offering for trading digital assets. The bank is exploring the possibility of launching bilateral crypto-currency options. World-famous investor and writer Robert Kiyosaki has warned that the world economy is now on the verge of hyperinflation and advised to "stay away" from the stock market. Against the backdrop of a severe crisis in the financial system of the Russian Federation and restrictions imposed on the circulation of the dollar and the euro, the demand of the population for cryptocurrency has increased sharply. Now it is primarily used for the transfer of capital abroad or for parking in "hard" currency. Analysts believe that regulators are unlikely to be able to effectively prevent such transactions. But the state is helped by crypto-exchanges, which block the Russians on their own initiative. There remain the possibilities of p2p platforms, that is, transfers between individuals. However, there are significant risks of fraud associated with such transactions.
Blockchain Gaming - Where NFT, RPG And Layer 2 Meet

Ethereum price consolidates before a 34% breakout

FXStreet News FXStreet News 10.03.2022 16:14
Ethereum price faces a decisive moment as it coils up inside a symmetrical triangle. Investors can expect a 34% move in either direction, considering the ambiguous nature of the setup. A move to the upside seems unlikely due to the presence of multiple resistance barriers. Ethereum price action shows an interesting setup that forecasts the possibility of a massive move in both directions. However, considering the technical aspects, the probability of a down move appears more plausible for ETH. Ethereum price is stuck consolidating Ethereum price sets up three lower highs and two higher lows since January 24. Connecting these swing points using trend lines results in a symmetrical triangle formation. This technical formation forecasts a 34% move in either direction obtained by measuring the distance between the first swing high and low. A bullish breakout at roughly $2,882 puts the target at $3,874, but a bearish move below $2,405 reveals the target at $1,578. However, an upside move is less likely due to the presence of the weekly supply zone extending from $2,927 to $3,413. Moreover, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) has kept the price capped for the last three months. Additionally, the 100-day SMA present inside the weekly supply zone makes this confluence a stiff hurdle to overcome. Therefore, a six-hour candlestick close below $2,405 would indicate a breakout and forecasts a 34% crash to $1,578. ETH bulls might prevent such a steep correction due to the weekly support level at $1,730. ETH/USDT 6-hour chart On the other hand, if Ethereum price witnesses a massive surge in buying pressure that kick-starts a bullish breakout, investors can expect the upside to be capped around the 200-day SMA at $3,543 or $3,600. Any move beyond this level will require a massive inflow of stablecoins or a pileup of bid orders, which is unlikely considering the consolidative nature of BTC and ETH’s correlation to it.
Awaited Emini S&P 500, NASDAQ and Emini Down Jones Video Analysis

Awaited Emini S&P 500, NASDAQ and Emini Down Jones Video Analysis

Jason Sen Jason Sen 11.03.2022 11:53
Emini S&P MARCH still holding strong resistance at 4265/75 in a quiet session. Nasdaq MARCH manages a recovery to first resistance still at 13750/850. Shorts need stops above 13950. Emini Dow Jones MARCH hit my target & support at 32400/300. A low for the day exactly here. The bounce beat resistance at 32800/900 but made a high for the day exactly at the next target of 33250/300. We held this level all through yesterday & over night. Update daily by 05:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Emini S&P sees a recovery to strong resistance at 4265/75 with a high for the day here. I think gains are likely to be limited but above 4290 can target 4320/25, perhaps as far as a sell opportunity at 4370/80. Shorts need stops above 4400. If we hold strong resistance at 4265/75 & reverse, look for 4220/10 (a low for the day here yesterday in fact) then support at 4195/4185. I guess we need a weekly close below here for my important sell signal with a break below 4140 to retest the February low at 4101. Obviously a break below here adds pressure for 4060/50 & pro as far as 4010/00 eventually. Nasdaq bounces to first resistance still at 13750/850 with a high for the day exactly here. Shorts need stops above 13950. A break higher however targets 2 month trend line resistance at 14100/150. Shorts need stops above 14250 for a test of strong resistance at 14350/400. Holding first resistance at 13850/750 re-targets 13500/450 (hit yesterday, with a bounce from 13996) before important longer term support at 13000/12900. Longs need stops below 12800. A break lower however could send prices down another 1000 points eventually. Emini Dow Jones certainly volatile but still holding strong resistance at 33250/300 (with a high for the day exactly here yesterday). Shorts need stops above 33600. A break higher targets strong resistance at 33900/34000. Holding 33250/300 targets 32900/800 before support at 32400/300. A break below 32000 is then a very important longer term sell signal & could see 750 tick losses almost immediately. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
Hello Indices! FTSE 100 (UK100), EuroStoxx 50, DAX (GER 40) Analysed

Hello Indices! FTSE 100 (UK100), EuroStoxx 50, DAX (GER 40) Analysed

Jason Sen Jason Sen 11.03.2022 11:54
Dax 40 hit my 13850/950 target as predicted with a high for the day almost exactly here. yesterday. Shorts did well on the sell off to support at 13380/330, with a low for the day exactly as predicted. Can't say fairer than that? EuroStoxx 50 MARCH hit very strong resistance at 3780/3800 with a high for the day. Shorts worked perfectly on the collapse to my strong support at 3630/10. A low for the day exactly here! FTSE 100 MARCH Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis. Dax made a low for the day support at 13380/330 as expected. Below 13280 however risks a slide to 13050/13000, before a retest of this week's low at 12450/425 (although I do not know why we made a low here!). First resistance at 13900/990 & shorts need stops above 14050. A break higher today then targets 141450/200, perhaps as far as 14350. Who knows, we could even retest the head & shoulders neckline at 14750/850 and then the market could crash to 11200. EuroStoxx strong support at 3630/10. Longs need stops below 3590. A break lower targets 3535/25. Longs at strong support at 3630/10 target 3680/90 before very strong resistance at 3780/3800. Shorts need stops above 3815. If we continue higher look for 3860/80. FTSE unbelievably strong as prices recover 50% of the February /March losses in just 2 days to test the 200 day moving average at 7190. A high for the day exactly here yesterday so watch this level on a retest today - a break above 7215 can target 7280/90. Holding what should be strong resistance at 7170/7190 saw us target 7080/60 with a low for the day exactly here. If we continue lower today expect strong support at 6950/30. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
AUD/USD finds support near 0.7300 mark on Russian President Putin’s comments

AUD/USD finds support near 0.7300 mark on Russian President Putin’s comments

FXStreet News FXStreet News 11.03.2022 13:37
AUD/USD witnessed fresh selling on Friday and snapped two successive days of the winning streak.Dovish remarks by RBA Governor Lowe, modest USD strength exerted some downward pressure.A goodish recovery in the risk sentiment helped limit further losses for the perceived riskier aussie.The AUD/USD pair recovered a few pips from the daily low, around the 0.7300 mark touched in the last hour and was last seen trading around the 0.7325 region.The pair struggled to capitalize on its gains recorded over the past two trading sessions and witnessed some selling on Friday in reaction to dovish-sounding remarks by the RBA Governor Philip Lowe. During his opening address to the Australian Banking Association, Lowe said that the RBA will not be pressured by financial markets to raise interest rates until prices are rising at a sustainable pace.Apart from this, some intraday US dollar buying exerted additional downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair. That said, hopes of a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine crisis lifted the global risk sentiment and acted as a headwind for the safe-haven greenback. The optimism was fueled by comments from Russian President Vladimir Putin, saying that there are certain positive shifts in talks with Ukraine.The latest developments triggered a goodish move up in the equity markets, which, in turn, extended some support to the perceived riskier aussie. The risk-on mood, along with firming expectations for an imminent start of the policy tightening by the Fed pushed the US Treasury bond yields higher. This should act as a tailwind for the USD and keep a lid on any meaningful upside for the AUD/USD pair.Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying before confirming a near-term bullish bias amid the risk of a further escalation in tensions between Russia and the West. In fact, US President Joe Biden is set to call for an end of normal trade relations with Russia later this Friday, alongside the Group of Seven nations and European Union leaders.
Price Of (SHIB) Shiba Inu In Times Of Inflation And The Conflict

Price Of (SHIB) Shiba Inu In Times Of Inflation And The Conflict

FXStreet News FXStreet News 11.03.2022 13:37
Shiba Inu price action sees volume wearing thinner due to investors remaining sidelined as peace talks in Ukraine stall. SHIB bulls are a bit puzzled about what to do next as global worries on inflation and Ukraine are dampening any upward potential in SHIB price action. Expect to see the price go sideways to lower today, heading into the weekend. Shiba Inu (SHIB) price action has not been in a sweet spot for investors this week. With whipsawing price action and bears still sitting on lucrative gains, investors got burned several times on false breakouts and mixed signals coming from both the markets and price action in SHIB. Expect a large number of funds to stay sidelined as more peace talks get underway, but Russia’s stance of not wanting to meet Ukraine halfway, suggest those talks are likely to end in failure rather than success. Shiba Inu price reveals that bulls are not taking chances as new peace talks have no chance of succeeding Shiba Inu price action is on a slow downward burn after bulls got tempted in to what looked like a relief rally but instead turned out to be a full-fledged bull trap, squeezing bulls out of their positions, paring back all the gains accrued, and even making a new low for the week this morning. With the Relative Strength Index flatlining, it looks as if SHIB’s balance between bears and bulls is in gridlock as bulls do not want to engage without a clear positive catalyst, and bears are sitting on a pile of profits that they do not want to offload at the current levels. It will take either a breakthrough in peace talks or another catalyst to form some counterweight against the forecast of stagflation and further deterioration in Ukraine that is at the moment directing price action in Shiba Inu. SHIB price will test the new lows for this week and looks set to drop to the green ascending trend line near $0.00002108, which falls roughly in line with the low of February 24. Depending on how the US dollar behaves, expect to see some movement to the upside, but nowhere near the high of yesterday, so relatively muted below $0.00002400. Expect SHIB price action to go into the weekend within that price range, awaiting any headlines that could set the tone for next week. SHIB/USD daily chart If a breakthrough is made on some front, or some economic data opens a window of relief, expect to see a pop above $0.00002400, breaking the high of yesterday and opening up more upside towards $0.00002533, which is the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). SHIB price action would print a new high for the week with this. As the red descending trend line is in the near vicinity, expect possible bulls to try and reach out to that level, near $0.00002636, for a test and possible break to the upside if the positive sentiment only gains traction going into the weekend.
S&P 500 (SPX) Price - 200-Day And 50-Day Moving Averages Met

S&P 500 (SPX) Price - 200-Day And 50-Day Moving Averages Met

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 11.03.2022 14:05
The US S&P500 closed Thursday with a 0.4% drop, but the sustained downward trend since the beginning of the year has formed a “death cross”, a bearish signal of Tech analysis when the 50-day Moving Average crosses down the 200-day one. It is widely considered as a downtrend confirmation, followed by a further and faster market decline. However, this time the situation might be more optimistic, and there are several other indications, both from technical analysis and the news background. The history of the past ten years makes us wary of any signal that follows from a crossover of these averages. The “death cross” was most clearly triggered in August 2015 and December 2018, when this signal was followed by 12% and 16% drawdowns in the index in the following couple of weeks. The difference between those episodes and the current one is that back then, the market was stalling for a long time, with no strength for growth. This crossover has now taken place after a three-month correction. This trend brings the situation closer to 2020 when the market collapsed on the pandemic - the “black swan”. The war between Russia and Ukraine is the same black swan that accelerated and intensified the correction. In March 2020, and again almost two years later, the “cross” came after an impulsive decline and away from local lows. On the daily timeframes, another indicator, the Relative Strength Index, shows a waning of the downward momentum, as the new lows of the S&P500 index met the RSI at higher local lows. The broad market index found solid support at 76.4% Fibonacci in March from the rally from the pandemic bottom to the peaks of January. There are some fundamentally positive developments for the market. President Putin of Russia rather unexpectedly noted progress in the negotiations with Ukraine, while outside observers the day before stated the opposite. Also, Fed rhetoric has become much softer over the last month, and US lawmakers are more likely to agree on stimulus packages, supporting the demand for risky assets.
Now, That‘s Better

Now, That‘s Better

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 11.03.2022 15:59
S&P 500 gave up the opening gains, but managed to close on a good note, in spite of credit markets not confirming. Given though the high volume characterizing HYG downswing and retreating crude oil, we may be in for a stock market led rebound today. It‘s that finally, value did much better yesterday than tech.CPI came red hot, but didn‘t beat expectations, yield curve remains flat as a pancake, and the commodity index didn‘t sell off too hard. It remains to be seen whether the miners‘ strength was for real or not – anyway, the yesterday discussed shallow $1,980 - $2,000 range consolidation still remains the most likely scenario. I just don‘t see PMs and commodities giving up a lion‘s share of the post Feb 24 gains next.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 can still turn around, and the odds of doing so successfully (till the closing bell today), have increased yesterday. The diminished volume points to no more sellers at this point while buyers are waiting on the sidelines.Credit MarketsHYG has only marginally closed below Tuesday‘s lows – corporate junk bonds can reverse higher without overcoming Wednesday‘s highs fast, which would still be constructive for a modest S&P 500 upswing.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are indeed refusing to swing lower too much – the sector remains excellently positioned for further gains. For now though, we‘re in a soft patch where the speculative fever is slowly coming out, including out of other commodities. Enter oil.Crude OilCrude oil still remains vulnerable, but would catch a bid quite fast here. Ideally, black gold wouldn‘t break down into the $105 - $100 zone next. I‘m looking for resilience kicking in soon.CopperCopper fake weakness is being reversed, and the red metal is well positioned not to break below Wednesday‘s lows. I‘m not looking for selloff continuation in the CRB Index either.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos remain undecided, and erring on the side of caution – this highlights that the risk appetite‘s return is far from universal.SummaryS&P 500 missed a good opportunity yesterday, but the short-term bullish case isn‘t lost. Stocks actually outperformed credit markets, and given the commodities respite and value doing well, bonds may very well join in the upswing, with a notable hesitation though. That wouldn‘t be a short-term obstacle, take it as the bulls temporarily overpowering the bears – I still think that the selling isn‘t over, and that the downswing would return in the latter half of Mar if (and that‘s a big if) the Fed‘s response to inflation doesn‘t underwhelm the market expectations that have been dialed back considerably over the last two weeks. Token 25bp rate hike, anyone? That wouldn‘t sink stocks dramatically...Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Natural Gas: When A Trade Plan Provides Consecutive Wins

Natural Gas: When A Trade Plan Provides Consecutive Wins

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 11.03.2022 16:24
From time to time, we may want to consider volatility as an ally. After all, why would highly volatile markets necessarily mean more losing trades?The first target was hit – BOOM! Today – just before the weekend – it is time to bank some profits from my recent trade projections (provided on March 2). Since then, the trade plan has provided our dear subscribers with multiple bounces to trade the NYMEX Natural Gas Futures (April contract) in various ways, always depending on each one’s personal risk profile.The first possibility is the swing trading with trailing stop method explained in my famous risk management article.Trade entry triggered on Tuesday, March 8 (firm rebound on yellow band), stop lifted once price extends beyond mid-point (median) price between first target and entry, thus ending at $4.607 (black dotted line), given the market closed at its daily high of $4.704 (purple dotted line) that same day and assuming you entered that long trade at $4.550 (top of the yellow band). That was a quick one that lasted only a couple hours for the day traders who closed their trades at the regular market close (two candles later, see below chart). For the swing traders, the win-stop was triggered the next day (Wednesday) on the following pull-back. Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, hourly chart)The second option is to scale the rebounds with fixed targets (active or experienced traders).This method consists of “riding the tails” (or the shadows). To get a better grasp of this concept, let’s zoom out on a 4H-chart so you can see the multiple rebounds of the price characterized by the shadows (or tails) of candlesticks, where a crowd of bulls are placing buy orders around that yellow support zone, therefore squeezing bears by pushing prices towards the upside (like some sort of rope pulling game). This trading style often requires stops to be tighter with some profit-to-risk ratio greater than 1.5 (with usually fixed targets). Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, 4H chart)Third possibility: position trading. This is probably the most passive trading style, as it would suit everyone’s busy timetable (and be the most rewarding). This is usually the one we privilege at Sunshine Profits since it allows us to provide trade projections some time in advance for our patient sniper traders to lock in their trading targets and take sufficient time to assess the associated risk with each projection as part of a full trade plan (or flying map).Let’s zoom out again to spot our first target getting hit today on a daily chart so we can have an overall view of the next target to be locked in while lifting our stop to breakeven (entry), previous swing low ($4.450) or using an Average True Range (ATR) ratio as some of you may like to use:Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart)That’s all folks for today. Have a great weekend!Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Gold Likes Recessions - Could High Interest Rates Lead to One?

Gold Likes Recessions - Could High Interest Rates Lead to One?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 11.03.2022 16:52
We live in uncertain times, but one thing is (almost) certain: the Fed’s tightening cycle will be followed by an economic slowdown – if not worse.There are many regularities in nature. After winter comes spring. After night comes day. After the Fed’s tightening cycle comes a recession. This month, the Fed will probably end quantitative easing and lift the federal funds rate. Will it trigger the next economic crisis?It’s, of course, more nuanced, but the basic mechanism remains quite simple. Cuts in interest rates, maintaining them at very low levels for a prolonged time, and asset purchases – in other words, easy monetary policy and cheap money – lead to excessive risk-taking, investors’ complacency, periods of booms, and price bubbles. On the contrary, interest rate hikes and withdrawal of liquidity from the markets – i.e., tightening of monetary policy – tend to trigger economic busts, bursts of asset bubbles, and recessions. This happens because the amount of risk, debt, and bad investments becomes simply too high.Historians lie, but history – never does. The chart below clearly confirms the relationship between the Fed’s tightening cycle and the state of the US economy. As one can see, generally, all recessions were preceded by interest rate hikes. For instance, in 1999-2000, the Fed lifted the interest rates by 175 basis points, causing the burst of the dot-com bubble. Another example: in the period between 2004 and 2006, the US central bank raised rates by 425 basis points, which led to the burst of the housing bubble and the Great Recession.One could argue that the 2020 economic plunge was caused not by US monetary policy but by the pandemic. However, the yield curve inverted in 2019 and the repo crisis forced the Fed to cut interest rates. Thus, the recession would probably have occurred anyway, although without the Great Lockdown, it wouldn’t be so deep.However, not all tightening cycles lead to recessions. For example, interest rate hikes in the first half of the 1960s, 1983-1984, or 1994-1995 didn’t cause economic slumps. Hence, a soft landing is theoretically possible, although it has previously proved hard to achieve. The last three cases of monetary policy tightening did lead to economic havoc.It goes without saying that high inflation won’t help the Fed engineer a soft landing. The key problem here is that the US central bank is between an inflationary rock and a hard landing. The Fed has to fight inflation, but it would require aggressive hikes that could slow down the economy or even trigger a recession. Another issue is that high inflation wreaks havoc on its own. Thus, even if untamed, it would lead to a recession anyway, putting the economy into stagflation. Please take a look at the chart below, which shows the history of US inflation.As one can see, each time the CPI annul rate peaked above 5%, it was either accompanied by or followed by a recession. The last such case was in 2008 during the global financial crisis, but the same happened in 1990, 1980, 1974, and 1970. It doesn’t bode well for the upcoming years.Some analysts argue that we are not experiencing a normal business cycle right now. In this view, the recovery from a pandemic crisis is rather similar to the postwar demobilization, so high inflation doesn’t necessarily imply overheating of the economy and could subsidy without an immediate recession. Of course, supply shortages and pent-up demand contributed to the current inflationary episode, but we shouldn’t forget about the role of the money supply. Given its surge, the Fed has to tighten monetary policy to curb inflation. However, this is exactly what can trigger a recession, given the high indebtedness and Wall Street’s addiction to cheap liquidity.What does it mean for the gold market? Well, the possibility that the Fed’s tightening cycle will lead to a recession is good news for the yellow metal, which shines the most during economic crises. Actually, recent gold’s resilience to rising bond yields may be explained by demand for gold as a hedge against the Fed’s mistake or failure to engineer a soft landing.Another bullish implication is that the Fed will have to ease its stance at some point in time when the hikes in interest rates bring an economic slowdown or stock market turbulence. If history teaches us anything, it is that the Fed always chickens out and ends up less hawkish than it promised. In other words, the US central bank cares much more about Wall Street than it’s ready to admit and probably much more than it cares about inflation.Having said that, the recession won’t start the next day after the rate liftoff. Economic indicators don’t signal an economic slump. The yield curve has been flattening, but it’s comfortably above negative territory. I know that the pandemic has condensed the last recession and economic rebound, but I don’t expect it anytime soon (at least rather not in 2022). It implies that gold will have to live this year without the support of the recession or strong expectations of it.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
COT Soft Commodities Speculators drive their Sugar bullish bets sharply higher

COT Soft Commodities Speculators drive their Sugar bullish bets sharply higher

Invest Macro Invest Macro 12.03.2022 19:56
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT soft commodities data is the jump in the Sugar futures bets. The speculative net position in the Sugar futures rose sharply this week by the largest one-week amount (+66,537 contracts) in the past one hundred and seventeen weeks, dating back to December 10th of 2019. Over the past year, Sugar speculator bets had remained at a high bullish level with speculator positions reaching a high level of +302,267 contracts in August. The speculator sentiment started to trend lower over the last months of 2021 and fell below the +100,000 contract threshold in February for the first time in over a year. However, Sugar bets have now increased for three consecutive weeks and these gains have pushed the current Sugar speculator standing to the highest level of the past nine weeks at +151,076 contracts. The soft commodities that saw higher bets this week were Corn (37,095 contracts), Sugar (66,537 contracts), Soybean Oil (6,730 contracts), Soybean Meal (8,421 contracts), Cocoa (4,331 contracts) and Wheat (6,182 contracts). The soft commodities that saw lower bets this week were Coffee (-9,793 contracts), Soybeans (-2,330 contracts), Live Cattle (-19,472 contracts), Lean Hogs (-9,714 contracts) and Cotton (-4,997 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-08-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,896,974 5 361,665 11 -408,809 80 47,144 81 Gold 638,502 57 274,388 75 -306,946 24 32,558 57 Silver 168,283 33 52,297 74 -69,609 31 17,312 44 Copper 198,844 26 31,819 65 -40,070 32 8,251 73 Palladium 7,631 5 -272 20 -563 73 835 94 Platinum 72,496 43 25,833 39 -32,358 63 6,525 53 Natural Gas 1,085,853 0 -138,413 37 97,671 62 40,742 82 Brent 196,832 37 -11,712 92 10,814 11 898 21 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 743,566 32 216,577 84 -189,219 21 -27,358 25 Corn 1,487,815 19 498,033 94 -456,684 7 -41,349 19 Coffee 224,222 3 52,113 86 -56,074 16 3,961 16 Sugar 837,413 5 151,076 68 -190,856 32 39,780 57 Wheat 342,996 4 12,625 58 -5,496 35 -7,129 72   CORN Futures: The CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 498,033 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 37,095 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 460,938 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent. CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.5 45.6 8.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.1 76.3 11.3 – Net Position: 498,033 -456,684 -41,349 – Gross Longs: 558,302 678,788 126,216 – Gross Shorts: 60,269 1,135,472 167,565 – Long to Short Ratio: 9.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 93.7 6.9 19.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.5 -9.6 4.8   SUGAR Futures: The SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 151,076 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 66,537 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 84,539 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.5 51.3 10.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.5 74.1 6.0 – Net Position: 151,076 -190,856 39,780 – Gross Longs: 213,623 429,582 89,877 – Gross Shorts: 62,547 620,438 50,097 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.7 32.0 57.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.1 -9.1 22.4   COFFEE Futures: The COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 52,113 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,793 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 61,906 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent. COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.7 49.0 4.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.4 74.0 2.9 – Net Position: 52,113 -56,074 3,961 – Gross Longs: 64,268 109,942 10,460 – Gross Shorts: 12,155 166,016 6,499 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 86.5 15.9 15.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.9 7.0 4.5   SOYBEANS Futures: The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 216,577 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,330 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 218,907 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent. SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.4 44.5 6.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.2 70.0 10.2 – Net Position: 216,577 -189,219 -27,358 – Gross Longs: 263,044 330,997 48,509 – Gross Shorts: 46,467 520,216 75,867 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 83.8 21.3 24.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.7 -18.0 14.8   SOYBEAN OIL Futures: The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 91,682 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 6,730 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 84,952 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent. SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.3 49.1 9.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.0 80.2 5.0 – Net Position: 91,682 -108,504 16,822 – Gross Longs: 108,997 171,067 34,341 – Gross Shorts: 17,315 279,571 17,519 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 73.3 25.5 76.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.5 -15.1 25.9   SOYBEAN MEAL Futures: The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 121,604 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,421 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 113,183 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent. SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.2 44.7 12.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 3.1 84.3 4.3 – Net Position: 121,604 -150,565 28,961 – Gross Longs: 133,535 169,698 45,414 – Gross Shorts: 11,931 320,263 16,453 – Long to Short Ratio: 11.2 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 86.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 24.9 -25.2 15.0   LIVE CATTLE Futures: The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 39,567 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -19,472 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,039 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent. LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.7 42.0 10.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 20.7 52.0 12.1 – Net Position: 39,567 -32,718 -6,849 – Gross Longs: 107,356 137,930 32,744 – Gross Shorts: 67,789 170,648 39,593 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 15.6 81.0 70.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.1 8.8 -4.0   LEAN HOGS Futures: The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 51,525 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,714 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 61,239 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent. LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.4 35.4 8.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.2 53.2 12.2 – Net Position: 51,525 -43,476 -8,049 – Gross Longs: 90,959 86,189 21,651 – Gross Shorts: 39,434 129,665 29,700 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 62.9 42.1 45.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.1 1.7 21.9   COTTON Futures: The COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 86,831 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,997 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 91,828 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent. COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.0 41.0 7.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.1 83.1 3.5 – Net Position: 86,831 -96,466 9,635 – Gross Longs: 98,415 93,704 17,706 – Gross Shorts: 11,584 190,170 8,071 – Long to Short Ratio: 8.5 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 78.0 21.6 73.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.4 5.4 -13.8   COCOA Futures: The COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 29,762 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,331 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,431 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.0 46.0 8.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.8 62.5 3.8 – Net Position: 29,762 -40,088 10,326 – Gross Longs: 70,628 112,129 19,632 – Gross Shorts: 40,866 152,217 9,306 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.5 43.1 100.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.0 -6.8 61.1   WHEAT Futures: The WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 12,625 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,182 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,443 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent. WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.0 43.2 8.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.3 44.8 11.0 – Net Position: 12,625 -5,496 -7,129 – Gross Longs: 113,208 148,158 30,677 – Gross Shorts: 100,583 153,654 37,806 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 57.8 35.5 71.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.8 -1.9 5.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Metals Speculators raise Gold bullish bets for 5th week to 61-week high

COT Metals Speculators raise Gold bullish bets for 5th week to 61-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 12.03.2022 20:29
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT metals data is the continued gains in the Gold futures bets. The speculative net position in the Gold futures has risen for five consecutive weeks and in six out of the past seven weeks. Gold bets have now increased by a total of +102,246 contracts over just these past five weeks as bullish sentiment has increased due to inflation and the war in Ukraine. The current speculator position has now ascended to the most bullish level (+274,388) in the past sixty-one weeks, dating back to October 15th of 2021 when bullish bets totaled +279,318 contracts. All the metals markets we cover saw higher speculator bets with Silver (7,349 contracts), Gold (16,766 contracts), Copper (9,726 contracts), Platinum (8,943 contracts) and Palladium (632 contracts) all rising for the week. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-08-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,896,974 5 361,665 11 -408,809 80 47,144 81 Gold 638,502 57 274,388 75 -306,946 24 32,558 57 Silver 168,283 33 52,297 74 -69,609 31 17,312 44 Copper 198,844 26 31,819 65 -40,070 32 8,251 73 Palladium 7,631 5 -272 20 -563 73 835 94 Platinum 72,496 43 25,833 39 -32,358 63 6,525 53 Natural Gas 1,085,853 0 -138,413 37 97,671 62 40,742 82 Brent 196,832 37 -11,712 92 10,814 11 898 21 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 743,566 32 216,577 84 -189,219 21 -27,358 25 Corn 1,487,815 19 498,033 94 -456,684 7 -41,349 19 Coffee 224,222 3 52,113 86 -56,074 16 3,961 16 Sugar 837,413 5 151,076 68 -190,856 32 39,780 57 Wheat 342,996 4 12,625 58 -5,496 35 -7,129 72   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 274,388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 16,766 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 257,622 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 57.1 21.8 8.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.1 69.9 3.7 – Net Position: 274,388 -306,946 32,558 – Gross Longs: 364,618 139,397 55,964 – Gross Shorts: 90,230 446,343 23,406 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.0 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 74.9 24.0 56.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 17.1 -17.4 8.4   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 52,297 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,948 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 45.5 29.0 17.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.4 70.4 6.7 – Net Position: 52,297 -69,609 17,312 – Gross Longs: 76,565 48,816 28,583 – Gross Shorts: 24,268 118,425 11,271 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.2 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 74.5 30.6 43.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.1 -21.5 10.3   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 31,819 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 9,726 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,093 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 44.1 37.7 9.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.1 57.9 5.4 – Net Position: 31,819 -40,070 8,251 – Gross Longs: 87,744 74,975 19,023 – Gross Shorts: 55,925 115,045 10,772 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.3 31.9 73.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 3.8 -5.0 11.0   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 25,833 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,890 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 57.6 26.1 12.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.0 70.8 3.5 – Net Position: 25,833 -32,358 6,525 – Gross Longs: 41,758 18,935 9,082 – Gross Shorts: 15,925 51,293 2,557 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.6 to 1 0.4 to 1 3.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.2 62.7 53.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 17.5 -18.8 15.2   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -272 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 632 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -904 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.4 42.6 22.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.0 49.9 11.2 – Net Position: -272 -563 835 – Gross Longs: 2,624 3,247 1,686 – Gross Shorts: 2,896 3,810 851 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 20.0 73.2 93.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.8 -16.2 66.0   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Brent Crude Speculators added bearish bets after multi-year lows

Brent Crude Speculators added bearish bets after multi-year lows

Invest Macro Invest Macro 12.03.2022 21:09
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT energy data is the Brent Oil (Last Day) futures bets. The speculative net position in the Brent Crude Oil futures last week saw speculator sharply raise their weekly bets and brought the overall net position (-6,707 contracts) to the least bearish level of the previous four hundred and twenty-two weeks, dating all the way back to February 4th of 2014 when spec positions totaled -4,253 contracts. Due to the particular dynamics of this market, there has not been a bullish net speculator position in this market since 2013. This week saw speculators add to their net bearish standing but not by much (-5,005 contracts) and we could see a possible positive speculator reading in this market soon due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the toll it has taken on the oil markets. Joining Brent Crude Oil (-5,005 contracts) in falling this week were WTI Crude Oil (-6,998 contracts), Natural Gas (-12,004 contracts), Heating Oil (-9,228 contracts), Gasoline (-15,543 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-1,693 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-08-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,896,974 5 361,665 11 -408,809 80 47,144 81 Gold 638,502 57 274,388 75 -306,946 24 32,558 57 Silver 168,283 33 52,297 74 -69,609 31 17,312 44 Copper 198,844 26 31,819 65 -40,070 32 8,251 73 Palladium 7,631 5 -272 20 -563 73 835 94 Platinum 72,496 43 25,833 39 -32,358 63 6,525 53 Natural Gas 1,085,853 0 -138,413 37 97,671 62 40,742 82 Brent 196,832 37 -11,712 92 10,814 11 898 21 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 743,566 32 216,577 84 -189,219 21 -27,358 25 Corn 1,487,815 19 498,033 94 -456,684 7 -41,349 19 Coffee 224,222 3 52,113 86 -56,074 16 3,961 16 Sugar 837,413 5 151,076 68 -190,856 32 39,780 57 Wheat 342,996 4 12,625 58 -5,496 35 -7,129 72   WTI Crude Oil Futures: The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 361,665 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,998 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 368,663 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent. WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.0 36.7 5.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.9 58.3 2.8 – Net Position: 361,665 -408,809 47,144 – Gross Longs: 455,339 696,449 99,767 – Gross Shorts: 93,674 1,105,258 52,623 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 11.2 79.9 81.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.6 4.7 -0.1   Brent Crude Oil Futures: The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -11,712 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,005 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,707 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent. Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.6 37.8 4.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.5 32.3 4.3 – Net Position: -11,712 10,814 898 – Gross Longs: 50,323 74,477 9,367 – Gross Shorts: 62,035 63,663 8,469 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.6 11.3 21.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 23.9 -21.7 -15.9   Natural Gas Futures: The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -138,413 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -12,004 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -126,409 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent. Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.6 43.6 5.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 35.3 34.6 1.9 – Net Position: -138,413 97,671 40,742 – Gross Longs: 245,092 473,729 60,990 – Gross Shorts: 383,505 376,058 20,248 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 3.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 37.0 61.7 82.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.2 0.0 34.8   Gasoline Blendstock Futures: The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 46,900 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -15,543 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,443 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.6 51.0 6.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.6 67.9 4.8 – Net Position: 46,900 -52,610 5,710 – Gross Longs: 82,887 158,839 20,554 – Gross Shorts: 35,987 211,449 14,844 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 17.8 84.4 45.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -12.9 14.6 -11.2   #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures: The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 6,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,683 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.0 50.8 14.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.1 60.1 6.9 – Net Position: 6,455 -32,434 25,979 – Gross Longs: 59,340 177,626 50,210 – Gross Shorts: 52,885 210,060 24,231 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.9 36.7 88.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -10.3 23.6   Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures: The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -14,569 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,693 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,876 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent. Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 62.5 32.8 1.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 95.4 1.5 0.2 – Net Position: -14,569 13,825 744 – Gross Longs: 27,594 14,481 828 – Gross Shorts: 42,163 656 84 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 22.1 to 1 9.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.8 46.5 45.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.8 1.1 6.4   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Bonds Futures Speculators push 10-Year Treasury Notes to 108-week bearish high

COT Bonds Futures Speculators push 10-Year Treasury Notes to 108-week bearish high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 12.03.2022 21:57
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT bonds data is the continued bearishness in the 10-Year Bond futures. The speculative position in the 10-Year has seen bearish bets increase for three straight weeks and by a total of -203,657 contracts over this period. This rising bearishness has pushed the 10-Year speculator standing to the most bearish level in the past one hundred and eight weeks, dating back to February 11th of 2020 when the speculator position totaled -398,919 net contracts. The current 10-Year speculator strength index score underscores the weak speculator sentiment and shows an extreme-bearish reading with a 13.9 percent score this week. (The speculator strength index measures the current speculator standing compared to past three years, where above 80 is extreme-bullish , below 20 is extreme-bearish). The bond markets with higher speculator bets were Long US Bond (51,897 contracts), Fed Funds (1,134 contracts), 5-Year (21,898 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (50,843 contracts). The markets with lower speculator bets were the 2-Year Bond (-1,919 contracts), Eurodollar (-164,965 contracts), 10-Year Bond (-11,937 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year (-40,563 contracts). Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-08-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index Eurodollar 11,104,557 47 -2,384,696 0 2,824,449 100 -439,753 8 FedFunds 1,956,224 69 -138,138 23 154,041 79 -15,903 21 2-Year 2,035,833 10 -112,746 59 185,172 60 -72,426 13 Long T-Bond 1,114,679 34 47,368 100 -28,607 11 -18,761 38 10-Year 3,627,534 38 -377,720 14 587,471 95 -209,751 30 5-Year 3,845,499 39 -452,141 4 711,489 100 -259,348 10   3-Month Eurodollars Futures: The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,384,696 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -164,965 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,219,731 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent. 3-Month Eurodollars Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.6 75.8 3.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.1 50.3 7.6 – Net Position: -2,384,696 2,824,449 -439,753 – Gross Longs: 514,260 8,413,589 405,813 – Gross Shorts: 2,898,956 5,589,140 845,566 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 99.9 7.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.3 5.5 -4.0   30-Day Federal Funds Futures: The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -138,138 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,134 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -139,272 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent. 30-Day Federal Funds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 2.4 79.8 1.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.4 71.9 2.2 – Net Position: -138,138 154,041 -15,903 – Gross Longs: 46,020 1,561,469 26,372 – Gross Shorts: 184,158 1,407,428 42,275 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 22.6 78.6 21.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -23.2 21.9 18.3   2-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -112,746 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,919 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -110,827 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent. 2-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.4 78.6 6.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.0 69.5 10.3 – Net Position: -112,746 185,172 -72,426 – Gross Longs: 253,295 1,600,373 136,835 – Gross Shorts: 366,041 1,415,201 209,261 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.5 60.3 12.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -29.2 33.3 -3.4   5-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -452,141 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 21,898 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -474,039 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent. 5-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.0 83.1 6.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.8 64.6 13.6 – Net Position: -452,141 711,489 -259,348 – Gross Longs: 308,793 3,194,985 261,858 – Gross Shorts: 760,934 2,483,496 521,206 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.8 100.0 9.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -54.7 37.7 0.4   10-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -377,720 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,937 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -365,783 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent. 10-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.4 80.1 8.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.8 63.9 14.1 – Net Position: -377,720 587,471 -209,751 – Gross Longs: 305,324 2,904,848 301,231 – Gross Shorts: 683,044 2,317,377 510,982 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 13.9 95.2 29.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.4 10.7 6.1   Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures: The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -34,380 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -40,563 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,183 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.9 77.6 9.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.6 65.5 18.7 – Net Position: -34,380 156,564 -122,184 – Gross Longs: 154,635 1,006,050 119,951 – Gross Shorts: 189,015 849,486 242,135 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 18.7 88.2 41.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -34.0 20.8 32.7   US Treasury Bonds Futures: The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 47,368 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 51,897 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,529 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent. US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.9 71.5 13.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.7 74.1 15.5 – Net Position: 47,368 -28,607 -18,761 – Gross Longs: 132,656 797,310 154,047 – Gross Shorts: 85,288 825,917 172,808 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 11.0 37.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 36.3 -32.8 -6.8   Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures: The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -284,418 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 50,843 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -335,261 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent. Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.7 80.8 11.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.6 60.5 9.3 – Net Position: -284,418 252,520 31,898 – Gross Longs: 83,173 1,004,968 147,181 – Gross Shorts: 367,591 752,448 115,283 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.2 38.5 51.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 24.0 -29.3 0.7   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Currency Speculators boost Mexican Peso bullish bets to 104-week high

COT Currency Speculators boost Mexican Peso bullish bets to 104-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 12.03.2022 22:20
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data is the rising bullish sentiment in the Mexican Peso currency futures contracts. Peso speculators have boosted their bullish bets for six consecutive weeks and in nine out of the past ten weeks. Over the past six-week time-frame, Peso bets have gained by a total of +53.807 contracts, going from -790 net positions on January 25th to +53,017 net positions this week. This recent improvement in Peso positioning pushed the current net speculator standing (+53,017 contracts) to the most bullish level in the past one hundred and four weeks, dating back to March 10th of 2020. Joining the Mexican peso (10,639 contracts) with positive changes this week were the Japanese yen (12,876 contracts), Brazil real (48 contracts), Swiss franc (5,538 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,793 contracts), Australian dollar (141 contracts) and Bitcoin (185 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-730 contracts), Euro (-6,095 contracts), British pound sterling (-12,189 contracts), Canadian dollar (-6,494 contracts) and the Russian ruble (-1,868 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-08-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 62,447 95 34,044 85 -37,890 12 3,846 59 EUR 738,990 98 58,844 53 -83,873 52 25,029 16 GBP 246,312 68 -12,526 65 25,457 45 -12,931 29 JPY 208,683 61 -55,856 33 76,657 74 -20,801 5 CHF 51,820 30 -9,710 53 21,942 56 -12,232 27 CAD 149,425 30 7,646 55 -15,494 46 7,848 45 AUD 197,094 80 -78,195 12 78,183 77 12 52 NZD 53,250 50 -12,379 50 13,592 51 -1,213 38 MXN 166,433 34 53,017 50 -55,194 50 2,177 52 RUB 22,420 7 7,806 32 -7,325 69 -481 22 BRL 68,623 65 50,496 100 -52,564 0 2,068 90 Bitcoin 9,591 48 265 100 -422 0 157 17   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 34,044 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -730 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,774 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 73.7 12.8 9.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.2 73.4 2.9 – Net Position: 34,044 -37,890 3,846 – Gross Longs: 46,031 7,962 5,642 – Gross Shorts: 11,987 45,852 1,796 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.8 to 1 0.2 to 1 3.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 84.5 11.6 58.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.9 7.7 -19.7   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 58,844 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,095 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,939 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.8 52.3 11.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.9 63.7 8.2 – Net Position: 58,844 -83,873 25,029 – Gross Longs: 242,683 386,654 85,727 – Gross Shorts: 183,839 470,527 60,698 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.1 52.0 15.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.4 -7.8 0.5   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -12,526 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -12,189 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -337 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.7 66.8 9.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.8 56.4 14.6 – Net Position: -12,526 25,457 -12,931 – Gross Longs: 50,982 164,423 23,076 – Gross Shorts: 63,508 138,966 36,007 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.0 44.7 28.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.4 5.1 -8.0   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -55,856 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,876 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -68,732 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.8 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.5 81.6 8.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 34.2 44.9 18.1 – Net Position: -55,856 76,657 -20,801 – Gross Longs: 15,548 170,330 16,884 – Gross Shorts: 71,404 93,673 37,685 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 32.7 74.3 4.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.9 -3.1 -13.5   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -9,710 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,538 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,248 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.4 70.7 17.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.1 28.4 40.9 – Net Position: -9,710 21,942 -12,232 – Gross Longs: 4,856 36,635 8,947 – Gross Shorts: 14,566 14,693 21,179 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.0 55.5 27.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.6 9.6 -22.1   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 7,646 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,494 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,140 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.5 41.7 22.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.3 52.1 17.5 – Net Position: 7,646 -15,494 7,848 – Gross Longs: 48,492 62,360 33,951 – Gross Shorts: 40,846 77,854 26,103 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.1 46.4 45.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.5 2.8 1.2   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -78,195 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 141 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,336 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.9 74.1 13.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 49.6 34.5 13.0 – Net Position: -78,195 78,183 12 – Gross Longs: 19,521 146,144 25,564 – Gross Shorts: 97,716 67,961 25,552 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.2 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 12.3 77.2 52.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.7 -14.6 35.3   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -12,379 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,793 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,172 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.6 62.0 5.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.9 36.5 7.5 – Net Position: -12,379 13,592 -1,213 – Gross Longs: 15,775 33,005 2,792 – Gross Shorts: 28,154 19,413 4,005 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.5 51.3 37.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.7 0.5 14.8   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 53,017 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,639 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,378 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 50.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 45.7 36.4 3.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.8 69.5 2.1 – Net Position: 53,017 -55,194 2,177 – Gross Longs: 76,020 60,537 5,674 – Gross Shorts: 23,003 115,731 3,497 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.0 49.8 52.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 22.9 -22.4 -0.4   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 50,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 48 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,448 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 79.5 15.3 5.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.9 91.9 2.1 – Net Position: 50,496 -52,564 2,068 – Gross Longs: 54,543 10,468 3,488 – Gross Shorts: 4,047 63,032 1,420 – Long to Short Ratio: 13.5 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 90.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 62.0 -62.3 8.4   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 7,806 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,868 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,674 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.5 60.6 2.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 1.6 93.3 5.1 – Net Position: 7,806 -7,325 -481 – Gross Longs: 8,173 13,590 657 – Gross Shorts: 367 20,915 1,138 – Long to Short Ratio: 22.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.9 68.7 21.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.1 -7.0 -22.4   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 265 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 185 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 80 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.9 2.8 9.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 78.1 7.2 8.3 – Net Position: 265 -422 157 – Gross Longs: 7,760 272 950 – Gross Shorts: 7,495 694 793 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 7.6 16.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.4 4.5 -8.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Trade Zone Week Ahead with Boris Schlossberg (BK Forex): 14th – 18th March

Trade Zone Week Ahead with Boris Schlossberg (BK Forex): 14th – 18th March

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 13.03.2022 19:00
It’s a big week for the US Fed this week, as it meets to push through its first increase in interest rates since the pandemic, against an increasingly volatile situation in Ukraine. Last week, the markets witnessed parabolic moves for both oil and gold as risk-off sentiment increased, however, those moves didn’t last long and soon reversed. As the trading bell tolls this week, the headlines will continue to be driven by fundamental factors, which will no doubt drive even further volatility if things seemingly get worse. In today’s Trade Zone Trading Week Ahead, we examine those severe moves in Oil and Gold, while also looking ahead at a few pertinent forex pairs, as well as the Nasdaq and Bitcoin. Watch the video below to get this week’s insights ahead of the market open. https://youtu.be/zifdtVdCcK0 Join us this Wednesday at 10PM AEDT (11AM GMT) as Boris and Kathy take you through another live market update, focusing on how price action is shaping up into the weekend. It’s the perfect session to get valuable insight into what’s hot in the financial markets, as well as give you the opportunity to ask the experts your questions in the live Q&A. Click the banner below to register. Registration is free. Boris Schlossberg is Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management, Co-Founder of BKForex.com, and Managing Editor of 60secondinvestor.com. Widely known as a leading foreign exchange expert, Boris has more than three decades of financial market experience. In 2007, while still at FXCM, Boris started BKForex with Ms. Kathy Lien. A year later, Boris joined Global Futures & Forex Ltd as director of currency research where he provided research and analysis to clients and managed a global foreign exchange analysis team with Kathy Lien. Since 2012 Boris has focused exclusively on running BKForex.com where he generates trade ideas and designs algorithms for the FX market in partnership with Ms. Lien. He is the author of “Technical Analysis of the Currency Market” and “Millionaire Traders: How Everyday People Beat Wall Street at its Own Game”, both of which are published by Wiley. In 2020 Mr. Schlossberg started www.60secondinvestor.com a free website that distils the best of institutional investment research for retail investors. Important Data Releases & Events this Week Tuesday AUD RBA Meeting Minutes USD PPI Wednesday JPY Balance of Trade CAD CPI USD Core Retail Sales Thursday USD Fed Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Press Conference NZD GDP AUD RBA Bulletin, Unemployment Rate GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision Friday JPY Inflation Rate, BoJ Interest Rate Decision The post Trade Zone Week Ahead with Boris Schlossberg (BK Forex): 14th – 18th March appeared first on Eightcap.
Intraday Market Analysis – The Canadian Dollar Recovers

Intraday Market Analysis – The Canadian Dollar Recovers

Jing Ren Jing Ren 14.03.2022 07:50
USDCAD struggles for supportThe Canadian dollar surged after a sharp drop in February’s unemployment rate. A break above the recent peak at 1.2875 has consolidated the US dollar’s lead.The RSI’s repeatedly overbought condition has led to some profit-taking. As the indicator swung into the oversold area, a pullback attracted bargain hunters in the demand zone between 61.8% (1.2700) Fibonacci retracement level and 1.2680.A rally above 1.2840 may resume the rally and send the pair to December’s high at 1.2960.EURJPY attempts reversalThe euro continues upward after the ECB left the door open to an interest rate hike. A pop above 128.60 has prompted sellers to reconsider their bets.However, traders can expect strong bearish pressure in the supply zone around 129.20. This level overlays with the 20-day moving average, making it a congestion area.An overbought RSI has tempered the initial comeback and the bulls need to consolidate their positions before they could push further. 126.50 is key support and 124.40 a second line of defense to keep the pair afloat.UK 100 bounces backThe FTSE 100 recoups losses as Britain’s GDP beat expectations in January. The rebound has gained traction after it broke above 7200.After a brief pause, the index met buying interest over 7050 and a bullish MA cross indicates an acceleration to the upside. Sentiment remains cautious from the daily chart perspective though and the bears could be waiting to sell into strength.7450 at the origin of the latest sell-off is a major hurdle as its breach could turn the mood around. Otherwise, there could be a revision of 6800 soon.
Blockchain Gaming - Where NFT, RPG And Layer 2 Meet

Apple Co-Founder Speaks Of The Future Of Bitcoin Price

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 14.03.2022 08:42
Bitcoin has decreased over the past week by 0.9%, ending it at around $38,700. Yesterday, the decline continued, bringing the price to 38500. Ethereum lost 0.7% in 24 hours and added 1.5% in a week. Other leading altcoins from the top ten show mixed dynamics over 24 hours: from a decline of 3.8% (XRP) to a rise of 3.3% (Terra). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 14% in 24 hours, to $1.72 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index fell 0.1% to 42.4%. The FxPro Analyst Team emphasized that the Cryptocurrency fear and greed index added 2 points in a day to 23 and remains in "extreme fear" condition. In the first half of the past week, the first cryptocurrency tried to strengthen, testing five-day highs near $42,600. Later, BTC lost all gains, again being thrown back to support near $38,000. Pressure on all risky assets continues to be exerted due to the situation in Ukraine. One of the Apple founders, Steve Wozniak, said that bitcoin would reach $100,000, which will be facilitated by the general interest in cryptocurrency. At the same time, he has a negative attitude towards altcoins and non-fungible tokens (NFTs). The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has again rejected applications from the NYSE Arca and Cboe BZX Exchanges to create spot bitcoin ETFs due to non-compliance with US exchange law. El Salvador has announced that it will postpone the issuance of bonds in bitcoins in connection with the events in Eastern Europe. The received funds were planned to be used for the construction of the "Bitcoin City". Visiting the UAE, Russians massively sell cryptocurrency for billions of dollars. Earlier, FBI Director Christopher Wray emphasized that the United States has vast experience in tracking cryptocurrencies, and Russia will not be able to use them to circumvent sanctions.  
Credit Markets Keeps Downward Move, S&P 500 (SPX) Trades Lower Than Usual, Bitcoin (BTC) Price Is... Quite Stable (Sic!)

Credit Markets Keeps Downward Move, S&P 500 (SPX) Trades Lower Than Usual, Bitcoin (BTC) Price Is... Quite Stable (Sic!)

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 14.03.2022 13:09
S&P 500 bulls again missed the opportunity, and credit markets likewise. Not even the virtual certainty of only 25bp hike in Mar is providing much relief to the credit markets. Given that the real economy is considerably slowing down and that recession looks arriving before Q2 ends, the markets continue forcing higher rates (reflecting inflation). In a risk-on environment, value and cyclicals such as financials would be reacting positively, but that‘s not the case right now. At the same time, equal weighted S&P 500 (that‘s RSP) hasn‘t yet broken below its horizontal support above $145, meaning its posture isn‘t as bad as in the S&P 500. Should it however give, we‘re going considerably below 4,000. That‘s why today‘s article is titled hanging by a thread. Precious metals and commodities continue consolidating, and the least volatile appreciation opportunity presents the red metal. And it‘s not only about copper – crude oil market is going through supply realignment, and demand is not yet being destroyed on a massive scale. Coupled with the long-term underinvestment in exploration and drilling (US is no longer such a key producer as was the case in 2019), crude oil prices would continue rising on fundamentals, meaning the appreciation pace of Feb-Mar would slow down. Precious metals would have it easy next as the Fed is bound to be forced to make a U-turn in this very short tightening cycle (they didn‘t get far at all, and inflation expectations have in my view become unanchored already). Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bears won the day, and Nasdaq remains in a sorry state. 4,160s are the line in the sand, breaking which would accelerate the downswing. Inflation is cutting into the earnings, and stocks aren‘t going to like the coming Fed‘s message. Credit Markets HYG didn‘t keep at least stable – the pressure in the credit markets is ongoing, and the stock market bulls don‘t have much to rejoice over here. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals downswings are being bought, and are shallow. The sellers are running out of steam, and the opportunity to go somewhat higher next, is approaching. Crude Oil Crude oil is stabilizing, but it may take some time before the upswing continues with renewed vigor. As for modest extension of gains, we won‘t be disappointed. Copper Copper had one more day of fake weakness, but the lost gains of Friday would be made up for next – and given no speculative fever here to speak of, it would have as good lasting power as precious metals. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos remain undecided, but indicate a little breathing room, at least for today. Still, I wouldn‘t call it as risk-on constellation throughout the markets. Summary S&P 500 is getting in a precarious position, but the internals aren‘t (yet) a screaming sell. Credit markets continue leading lower, and the risk-off positioning is impossible to miss. Not even financials are able to take the cue, and rise. It‘s that the rise in yields mirrors the ingrained inflation, and just how entrenched it‘s becoming. No surprise if you were listening to me one year ago – the Fed‘s manouevering room got progressively smaller, and the table is set for the 2H 2022 inflation respite (think 5-6% year end on account of recessionary undercurrents) to be superseded with even higher inflation in 2023, because the Fed would be forced later this year to turn back to easing. Long live the precious metals and commodities super bulls! Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Binance Academy: THORChain (RUNE) - What Is It?

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Crypto markets in disarray

FXStreet News FXStreet News 14.03.2022 15:57
Bitcoin price loses momentum as it slides back into consolidation along the $36,398 to $38,895 demand zone. Ethereum price slides below a symmetrical triangle, hinting at a move below $2,000. Ripple price remains bullish as bulls eye a retest of $1 psychological level. Bitcoin price continues to tag the immediate demand area, weakening it. Despite the sudden bursts in buying pressure, BTC seems to be in consolidation mode. Ethereum price has triggered a bearish outlook while Ripple price shows signs of heading higher. Also read: Gold Price Forecast: Lower lows hinting at a steeper decline Bitcoin price moves with no sense of direction Bitcoin price dips into the $36,398 to $38,895 demand zone for the fourth time without producing any higher highs. This price action is indicative of a consolidation and is likely to breach lower. A daily candlestick close below $36,398 will invalidate the demand zone and knock BTC to retest the weekly support level at $34,752, which is the last line of defense. A breakdown of this barrier will open the path for bears to crash Bitcoin price to $30,000 or lower. Here, market makers will push BTC below $29,100 to collect liquidity resting below the equal lows formed in mid-2021. BTC/USD 1-day chart While things look inauspicious for Bitcoin price, a strong bounce off the said demand zone that retests the weekly supply zone, ranging from $45,550 to $51,860, will provide some relief for bulls. Ethereum price favors bears Ethereum price action from January 22 to March 4 created three lower highs and higher lows, which, when connected via trend lines, resulted in a symmetrical triangle formation. This technical formation forecasts a 26% move obtained by measuring the distance between the first swing high and swing low to the breakout point. On March 6, ETH breached below, signaling a bearish breakout, which puts the theoretical target at $1,962. A breakdown of the weekly support level at $2,541 is vital; a breakdown of this barrier will expedite the move lower. ETH/USD 1-day chart Regardless of the recent onslaught of bearishness, Ethereum price needs to produce a daily candlestick close above $3,413 to invalidate the bullish thesis. Such a development will also open the possibility of kick-starting a potential uptrend. https://youtu.be/-U0QTf_NwnI Ripple price maintains its bullish momentum Ripple price traverses a bull flag continuation pattern, a breakout from which hints at a continuation of the uptrend. This technical formation contains an impulsive move higher followed by a consolidation in the form of a pennant. The 55% rally between February 3 and 8 formed a bullish flag pole continuation pattern, and the consolidation that ensued in the form of lower highs and higher lows created the pennant. Together, the bullish setup forecasts a 31% ascent for XRP price, obtained by adding the flag pole’s height to the breakout point from the pennant. On March 11, Ripple price broke out from the pennant, signaling the start of the 31% uptrend to $1. So far, the retest seems to be holding up well, so investors can expect the remittance token to continue its journey higher to the $1 psychological level. XRP/USD 1-day chart A daily candlestick close below the immediate demand zone, ranging from $0.689 to $0.705, will create a lower low and invalidate the bullish thesis for Ripple price. In such a case, XRP has the twelve-hour demand zone, extending from $0.546 to $0.633 to support any residual selling pressure. https://youtu.be/rCFQmMHWJZ4
Are Current Market Cycles Similar To The GFC Of 2007–2009?

Are Current Market Cycles Similar To The GFC Of 2007–2009?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 14.03.2022 16:14
Soaring real estate, rising volatility, surging commodities and slumping stocks - Sound Familiar?This past week marked the 13th anniversary of the bottom of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2007-2009. The March 6, 2009 stock market low for the S&P 500 marked a staggering overall value loss of 51.9%.The GFC of 2007-09 resulted from excessive risk-taking by global financial institutions, which resulted in the bursting of the housing market bubble. This, in turn, led to a vast collapse of mortgage-back securities resulting in a dramatic worldwide financial reset.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! IS HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF?The following graph shows us that precious metals and energy outperform the stock market as the ‘Bull’ cycle reaches its maturity. The stock market is always the first to lead, the second being the economy, and the third, being the commodity markets. But history has shown that commodity markets can move up substantially as the stock market ‘Bull’ runs out of steam.The current commodities rally in Gold began August 2021, Crude Oil April 2020, and Wheat in January 2022. Interestingly we started seeing capital outflows in the SPY-SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF in early January 2022, and the DRN-Direxion Daily Real Estate Bull 3x Shares ETF starting back in late December 2021.LET’S SEE WHAT HAPPENED TO THE STOCK AND COMMODITY MARKETS IN 2007-2008SPY - SPDR S&P 500 TRUST ETFFrom August 17, 2007 to July 3, 2008: SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust depreciated -20.12%The State Street Corporation designed SPY for investors who want a cost-effective and convenient way to invest in the price and yield performance of the S&P 500 Stock Index. According to State Street’s website www.ssga.com, the Benchmark, the S&P 500 Index, comprises selected stocks from five hundred (500) issuers, all of which are listed on national stock exchanges and span over approximately 24 separate industry groups.DBC – INVESCO DB COMMODITY INDEX TRACING FUND ETFFrom August 17 2007 to July 3, 2008: Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund appreciated +96.81%Invesco designed DBC for investors who want a cost-effective and convenient way to invest in commodity futures. According to Invesco’s website www.invesco.com, the Index is a rules-based index composed of futures contracts on 14 of the most heavily traded and important physical commodities in the world.BE ALERT: THE US FEDERAL RESERVE POLICY MEETING IS THIS WEEK!In February, the inflation rate rose to 7.9% as food and energy costs pushed prices to their highest level in more than 40 years. If we exclude food and energy, core inflation still rose 6.4%, which was the highest since August 1982. Gasoline, groceries, and housing were the most significant contributors to the CPI gain. The consumer price index is the price of a weighted average market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households.The FED was expected to raise interest rates by as much as 50 basis points at its policy meeting this week, March 15-16. However, given the recent world events of the Russia – Ukraine war in Europe, the FED may decide to be more cautious and raise rates by only 25 basis points.HOW WILL RISING INTEREST RATES AFFECT THE STOCK MARKET?As interest rates rise, the cost of borrowing becomes more expensive. Rising interest rates tend to affect the market immediately, while it may take about 9-12 months for the rest of the economy to see any widespread impact. Higher interest rates are generally negative for stocks, with the exception of the financial sector.WILL RISING INTEREST RATES BURST OUR HOUSING BUBBLE?It is too soon to tell exactly what the impact of rising interest rates will be regarding housing. It is worth noting that in a thriving economy, consumers continue buying. However, in our current economy, where the consumers' monthly payment is not keeping up with the price of gasoline and food, it is more likely to experience a leveling off of residential prices or even the risk of a 2007-2009 repeat of price depreciation.THE POTENTIAL FOR OUTSIZED GAINS IN A BEAR MARKET ARE 7X GREATER THAN A BULL MARKET!The average bull market lasts 2.7 years. From the March low of 2009, the current bull market has established a new record as the longest-running bull market at 12 years and nine months. The average bear market lasts just under ten months, while a few have lasted for several years. It is worth noting that bear markets tend to fall 7x faster than bull markets go up. Bear markets also reflect elevated levels of volatility and investor emotions which contribute significantly to the velocity of the market drop.WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE CURRENT MARKET TRENDS?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24 months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe we are seeing the markets beginning to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into metals, commodities, and other safe havens.IT'S TIME TO GET PREPARED FOR THE COMING STORM; UNDERSTAND HOW TO NAVIGATE THESE TYPES OF MARKETS!I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
The Swing Overview – Week 10 2022

The Swing Overview – Week 10 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 14.03.2022 15:05
The Swing Overview – Week 10 The war in Ukraine has been going on for more than two weeks and there is no end in sight. However, the markets seem to have started to adapt to the new situation and the decline in the indices has stopped. Meanwhile, inflation in the Czech Republic rose to 11.1% and the ECB left rates unchanged as expected. There is extreme volatility in oil. After reaching 2008 price levels there has been a larger correction. The conflict in Ukraine   The high-profile meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and his Ukrainian counterpart Kuleba did not bring a solution to end the war.  Russia continues to expect Ukraine to recognise Crimea as part of Russia, to recognise the independence of republics declared by pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, and not to join NATO. Kuleba commented that Ukraine will not surrender. So, unfortunately, the war continues.   The sanctions, which have caused the Russian economy a shock and which are being extended, should help to end the war. The US announced that it stopped taking Russian oil. However, European leaders have not agreed to stop taking Russian energy because of their current dependence on it. As a lesson from this war, the EU is preparing a plan to stop taking Russian gas by 2027.   Meanwhile, the markets have calmed down a bit and although a resolution to the conflict is nowhere in sight, the markets seem to have come to accept the war as a regional issue that will have a negative but limited impact on global economic growth. This can be seen in US 10-year bond rates, which have started to rise again.   Figure 1: 10-year government bond yield on the 4H chart and USD index on the daily chart   The US inflation at highest levels in 40 years Annual inflation in the US for February was 7.9%, the highest since January 1982. The biggest contributor to inflation is energy, which saw inflation reaching 25.6%, while gasoline prices were up 38%. These figures do not include recent developments in Europe. Continued supply-side logistics problems and strong demand, together with a tight labour market mean that higher inflation will last for a longer period. Figure 2: The inflation in the US   Next week, the US Fed will meet to respond to rising inflation. Interest rates are generally expected to rise by at least 0.25%.    The SP500 index Long-term investors in the SP 500 index track an indicator of the number of companies whose stock prices are above the 50-day average. Figure 3: The SP 500 Index and an indicator of the number of companies in the SP 500 Index above the 50-day moving average   This indicator has recently fallen to a value of 20. In the past, as the figure shows, reaching a value of 20 was mostly followed by an increase in the index. It is therefore likely that investors will now start buying the shares. Amazon shares gained significantly after the company announced a 20:1 stock split. The stock can thus be afforded by more retail investors. As for the current trend in the SP 500 index, it has been moving down recently. This may be a correction to the overall uptrend shown in Figure 3. In Figure 4 we have a short-term view.     Figure 4: SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   From a technical analysis perspective, the moving averages suggest that the index is moving down. Investor interest in buying a dip has slowed this decline, which can be seen on the H4 chart where a higher low has formed.  Support is at 4,140 - 4,152. Resistance is at 4,288 - 4,300. The next resistance is at 4,385 - 4,415. The moving averages also serve as resistance.   The inflation in the Czech Republic has surpassed 11% Annual inflation in the Czech Republic for February 2022 was 11.1% (9.9% in January), higher than market expectations (10.3% was expected). This is the highest inflation in the Czech Republic since 1998. The largest contributors to inflation are housing (16%), electricity (22.6%) and gas (28.3%). This figure is likely to force the CNB to raise rates further. The Czech koruna has stalled against the euro at resistance around 25.80 - 25.90. The reason for the weakening of the koruna was geopolitical uncertainty regarding the war in Ukraine. Now it seems that the markets have absorbed this situation and this may be the reason for the appreciation of the koruna that occurred last week. If the war in Ukraine does not escalate further into new unexpected dimensions (such as the disruption of gas supplies to Europe from Russia), then the interest rate differential could again be an important factor, which, due to higher interest rates on the koruna, could lead to the koruna appreciation towards January levels.   Figure 5: EURCZK on the daily chart   Resistance: 25.80 - 25.90.  Support: 24.50 - 24.60 and then around 24.10   ECB and the euro The ECB left interest rates unchanged at 0%. At the same time, it surprised the market by ending its bond buying program in Q3, earlier than previous forecasts. The reaction to the news was a strong appreciation of the euro and it jumped to 1.1120 against the dollar. Eventually, however, the euro ended the session at around 1.10. The reason for this reversal is that tightening at a time when the economy is slowing could lead to stagflation. Strong US inflation data also contributed to the euro sell-off. The US is also much less vulnerable to sanctions against Russia than Europe.   Figure 6: EURUSD on the H4 and daily charts   From a technical point of view, we can see that the EURUSD has stalled right at the resistance band, which is at the 1.11-1.1130 level. The nearest support is 1.08-1.0850.   Crude Oil Brent crude oil reached $136 earlier this week, the highest level since July 2008. This was due to fears of a shortage of black liquid due to the conflict in Ukraine. However, Russia , which produces 7% of global demand, has announced that it will meet its contractual obligations. At the same time, Chevron said there was no shortage of oil and some other producers were ready to increase production if necessary. The EU has also announced that it will not impose an embargo on Russian oil imports, which would otherwise shock the market at a time when oil stocks are reaching multi-year lows, and will not join the US and the UK. Following this, oil began to retreat from its highs.   Figure 7: Brent crude oil on monthly and daily charts Resistance is in the 132-135 range. The nearest support is 103 - 105 USD per barrel. The next support is then in the band around USD 85 - 87 per barrel.  
Is It Time for Brent and WTI Crude Oil Futures to Correct Lower?

Is It Time for Brent and WTI Crude Oil Futures to Correct Lower?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 14.03.2022 17:05
Crude oil prices are slipping from their recent highest levels. Where could we see the next support located?Oil prices fell sharply on Monday – extending last week’s decline – driven by potential progress in Ukraine-Russia talks.India is considering taking advantage of Russia's discounted crude oil and other commodities offers by settling transactions through the rupee/ruble payment system. Meanwhile, on the eastern side, there is a rush to replace the Russian barrels in the west, but immediate availability is limited.In addition, some fears that OPEC+ countries might not be able to easily increase supply remain, even though the UAE said last week that OPEC+ could double the output to the market (about 800,000 bpd) very quickly. However, this sounds very challenging since OPEC+ countries have already struggled to bring in 400,000 bbd.On the Asian side, a slowdown in demand could have been seen as 17 million residents in Shenzhen, the technological centre of southern China, were locked down on Sunday after reports of epidemic outbreaks linked to the neighbouring territory of Hong Kong, where the Omicron strain seems to have spread. There are growing fears that other cities could follow suit to comply with the country's strict zero-COVID policy, adopted by the government of the People's Republic of China.WTI Crude Oil (CLJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart)Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 8/3/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 8/3/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 14.03.2022 16:01
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 8/3/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index fell by 730 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in long positions by 2,270 contracts and an increase in short positions by 3,000 contracts. The decrease in total net speculator positions occurred last week in the euro, the British pound, and the Canadian dollar. The increase in total net positions occurred in the New Zealand dollar, the Australian dollar, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc.     The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Mar 08, 2022 34044 58844 -12526 -78195 -12379 -55856 7646 -9710 Mar 01, 2022 34774 64939 -337 -78336 -14172 -68732 14140 -15248 Feb 22, 2022 36084 59306 -5809 -84080 -11551 -63187 9253 -10987 Feb 15, 2022 35386 47581 2237 -86694 -9333 -66162 12170 -9715 Feb 08, 2022 33765 38842 -8545 -85741 -10366 -59148 14886 -9399 Feb 01, 2022 34571 29716 -23605 -79829 -11698 -60640 18264 -8239 Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 08, 2022 738990 242683 183839 58844 19015 14298 20393 -6095 Weak bullish Mar 01, 2022 719975 228385 163446 64939 23293 14190 8557 5633 Bullish Feb 22, 2022 696682 214195 154889 59306 -5365 -3704 -15429 11725 Bullish Feb 15, 2022 702047 217899 170318 47581 1949 -1074 -9813 8739 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 700098 218973 180131 38842 14667 5410 -3716 9126 Bullish Feb 01, 2022 685431 213563 183847 29716 2479 155 1999 -1844 Weak bullish         Total Change 56038 29275 1991 27284     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached 58,844 contracts last week, down by 6,095 contracts from the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 14,198 contracts and an increase in short positions by 20,393 contracts. These data suggest a weakening of the bullish sentiment for the euro. Open interest, which rose by 19,015 contracts in the past week, shows that the downward price action movement that occurred in the euro last week was supported by volume and it was  therefore a strong trend. The euro continues to weaken under the influence of the war in Ukraine and we can see that support levels have not been respected in such a strong trend. The ECB's announcement last week to end the bond purchases in 3Q 2022 also contributed to the euro’s weakness. This hawkish statement at a time when economic growth is slowing sparked fears of stagflation in the market and therefore the euro weakened following the ECB announcement.   Long-term resistance: 1.1120 – 1.1150. Support: 1.080-1.0850. The next support is at 1.0640-1.0700.   The British pound date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 08, 2022 246312 50982 63508 -12526 34443 3303 15492 -12189 Bearish Mar 01, 2022 211869 47679 48016 -337 23426 5430 -42 5472 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 188443 42249 48058 -5809 -6859 -7902 144 -8046 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 195302 50151 47914 2237 -2646 5442 -5340 10782 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 197948 44709 53254 -8545 13941 15112 52 15060 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 184007 29597 53202 -23605 1967 -7069 8773 -15842 Bearish         Total Change 64272 14316 19079 -4763     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week reached - 12,526 contracts, having fallen by 12,189 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth in long positions by 3,303 contracts and the growth in short positions by 15,492 contracts. This suggests bearish sentiment as the total net speculators positions  are negative while there has been a further decline as well. Open interest, which rose by 34,443 contracts last week, means that the fall in the pound that occurred last week was supported by the volume and it was therefore a strong price action. Risk off sentiment due to the war in Ukraine continues to weigh on the pound as well as the euro and therefore the pound is weakening strongly. Long-term resistance: 1.3180-1.3210.  Next resistance is near 1.3270 – 1.3330. Support is near 1.3000.     The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 08, 2022 197094 19521 97716 -78195 7427 6801 6660 141 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 189667 12720 91056 -78336 -2912 1167 -4577 5744 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 192579 11553 95633 -84080 1 -139 -2753 2614 Weak bearish Feb 15, 2022 192578 11692 98386 -86694 -3825 -5631 -4678 -953 Bearish Feb 08, 2022 196403 17323 103064 -85741 -510 -1512 4400 -5912 Bearish Feb 01, 2022 196913 18835 98664 -79829 6893 3714 270 3444 Weak bearish         Total Change 7074 4400 -678 5078     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week reached 78,195 contracts, up by 141 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth in long positions by 6,801 contracts and the growth in short positions by 6,660 contracts. This data suggests a weakening of the bearish sentiment for the Australian dollar. Last week we saw an increase in open interest of 7,427 contracts. This means that the downward movement that occurred last week was supported by volume as new money flowed into the market. The Australian dollar weakened quite significantly last week. This may be explained by the fact that there has been a fall in prices in commodities that Australia exports (e.g. gold, coal). The decline in commodity prices also reflects efforts to find a diplomatic solution to the war in Ukraine.  Long-term resistance: 0.7370-0.7440                                                                                                              Long-term support: 0.7085-0.7120.  A strong support is near 0.6960 – 0.6990.   The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 08, 2022 53250 15775 28154 -12379 2861 5290 3497 1793 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 50389 10485 24657 -14172 -6247 -6858 -4237 -2621 Bearish Feb 22, 2022 56636 17343 28894 -11551 -7469 -7580 -5362 -2218 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 64105 24923 34256 -9333 9228 7755 6722 1033 Weak bearish Feb 08, 2022 54877 17168 27534 -10366 -3590 -2037 -3369 1332 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 58467 19205 30903 -11698 5151 3257 4182 -925 Bearish         Total Change -66 -173 1433 -1606     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached a negative value last week - 12,379 contracts, having increased by 1,793 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 5,290 contracts and an increase in short positions by 3,497 contracts. This data suggests that the bearish sentiment on the NZ dollar has weakened over the past week. Open interest rose significantly by 2,861 contracts last week. The downward movement in the NZDUSD that occurred last week was therefore supported by volume and therefore the move was strong. The weakening in the NZDUSD that occurred last week can be explained by the decline in the prices of commodities that New Zealand produces. Long-term resistance: 0.6850 – 0.6920 Long-term support: 0.6590-0.6600 and the next support is at 0.6500 – 0.6530.   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
EURUSD Has Climbed A Bit, DAX (GER40) Has Moved Up Slightly, AUDUSD Chart Shows A Small Downtrend

EURUSD Has Climbed A Bit, DAX (GER40) Has Moved Up Slightly, AUDUSD Chart Shows A Small Downtrend

Jing Ren Jing Ren 15.03.2022 08:02
EURUSD struggles to rebound The US dollar bounces across the board as the Fed may possibly raise interest rates on Wednesday. The pair found support near May 2020’s lows around 1.0800. The RSI’s oversold condition on the daily chart prompted the bears to take some chips off the table, alleviating the pressure. 1.1110 is a fresh resistance and its breach could lift offers to 1.1270. In fact, this could turn sentiment around in the short term. Failing that, a break below 1.0830 could trigger a new round of sell-off towards March 2020’s lows near 1.0650. AUDUSD lacks support The Australian dollar slipped after dovish RBA minutes. The pair continues to pull back from its recent top at 0.7430. A drop below the demand zone at 0.7250 further puts the bulls on the defensive. The former support has turned into a resistance level. 0.7170 at the origin of a previous breakout is key support. An oversold RSI may raise buyers’ interest in this congestion area. A deeper correction could invalidate the recent rebound and send the Aussie to the daily support at 0.7090. GER 40 attempts to rebound The Dax 40 edges higher as Russia and Ukraine hold a fourth round of talks. The index bounced off the demand zone (12500) from the daily chart, a sign that price action could be stabilizing. The supply zone around the psychological level of 14000 sits next to the 20-day moving average, making it an important hurdle. A tentative breakout may have prompted sellers to cover. 14900 would be the target if the rebound gains momentum. On the downside, 13300 is fresh support, and 12720 is the second line of defense.
Buying Gold: ugly short-term deal, promising for long-term

Buying Gold: ugly short-term deal, promising for long-term

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 15.03.2022 11:09
Gold is losing another 1% on Tuesday, pulling back to $1933. Exactly one week ago, quotes were soaring towards $2070, but they have been in a steady downward trend since then. The short-term charts clearly show the even pressure crystallising since March 10th. It may seem illogical that the gold price is down, pending reliable signs of military de-escalation. Rampant inflation should also contribute to the demand for Gold as protection against capital depreciation. The answer to this question seems to be sought in the altered gold supply balance. Likely, the Bank of Russia is now actively selling Gold from its reserves, both domestically and using the remaining means to do so abroad. In the short term, this creates an impressive market overhang, despite data confirming that exchange-traded funds have built up their holdings in the metal to a record. If the current trend develops, the price of Gold could deflate into the $1850-1870 area, where it was before Russian troops entered Ukraine. That said, buying Gold remains a prudent long-term strategy. Geopolitical instability forms the risks of a slowdown in the economy, which will deter the Fed and other major central banks from tightening policy. A 25-point rate hike is expected from the Fed this week, although the markets gave more than a 60% chance of a 50-point hike in the first weeks of the year. In the meantime, the current and expected price situation has only worsened, accelerating the actual depreciation of assets. Looking ahead to the next few months, a very supportive environment remains for gold prices up to around $2,500. The marginal forecasts of a new round of gold growth are also becoming more evident, echoing the dynamic of the 1970s, as the energy and food markets are now in a very similar position. If this holds true, the price could soar several times in the next several years.
Have Stocks Reached the Bottom?

Have Stocks Reached the Bottom?

Paul Rejczak Paul Rejczak 15.03.2022 14:44
  The S&P 500 index extended its Friday’s decline yesterday, but it remained within a week-long volatile consolidation. Is this a medium-term bottoming pattern? The broad stock market index lost 0.74% on Monday, Mar. 14, after its Friday’s decline of 1.3%. The market bounced from the short-term resistance level of 4,300 and it extended a volatile consolidation following the early March sell-off from the 4,400 level. Last week on Tuesday it reached the local low of 4,157.87 and then we’ve seen a rebound to the 4,300 level. Yesterday the S&P 500 came back below the 4,200 level again. The market is closer to the Feb. 24 local low of 4,114.65. It was 704 points or 14.6% below the January 4 record high of 4,818.62 then. There’s still a lot of uncertainty concerning the ongoing Ukraine conflict. This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.5% higher following lower than expected Producer Price Index release. The market will be waiting for the important tomorrow’s FOMC Statement release, and we may see some further consolidation. The nearest important resistance level is now at around 4,200. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,100-4,150. The S&P 500 index continues to trade slightly above the recently broken downward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract Trades Along the Previous Lows Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. Today it is bouncing from the 4,140 level. It’s a support level marked by the previous local low. The support level is also at 4,100. We are still maintaining our long position, as we are expecting an upward correction from the current levels (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index will likely bounce this morning following better-than-expected producers’ inflation data release. The market may extend its volatile consolidation and we may see more uncertainty, as investors will be waiting for the Wednesday’s FOMC Statement release. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index will likely bounce this morning, but we may see some more short-term uncertainty. We are maintaining our long position (opened on Feb. 22). We are still expecting an upward correction from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
(XAUUSD) Price Of Gold And Price Of Silver (XAGUSD) Decreases...

(XAUUSD) Price Of Gold And Price Of Silver (XAGUSD) Decreases...

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 15.03.2022 14:12
  In line with predictions, gold is ceasing to benefit from war-fueled uncertainty. Meanwhile, silver faked another breakout. Could it be more bearish?  Last week’s powerful, huge-volume reversal in gold was likely to be followed by declines. It was – but that’s just the beginning. Yesterday’s $24 decline might seem significant on a day-to-day basis, but compared to last week’s enormous reversal, it’s really tiny. The modest extent of yesterday’s decline is by no means bullish – my emphasis on the small size of the decline so far should be viewed as an indication that much more is likely on the horizon. Besides, gold was down by about $20 in today’s pre-market trading. As I wrote yesterday, gold’s breakout above $2,000 was officially invalidated, and given the weekly reversal, it seems that the war-uncertainty-based rally is over. The decisive move below 70 in the RSI indicator after it was trading above 70 clearly confirms that the top is already behind us. Just like it was in 2020 and 2021 when similar things happened, history appears to have rhymed. On Friday, I wrote the following: Gold’s move of $0.40 (yes, forty cents) above $2,000 is not important as the breakout above this level was just invalidated the previous day. Technically, this is another attempt to break above this level, which is likely to be invalidated based on what we see in today’s pre-market trading. The fact that I would like to emphasize today is that this kind of small rebound after the initial slide is common and perfectly normal for gold. We saw exactly the same thing right after gold’s 2020 top and after its 2021 top, and also two more times in 2021 (as marked on the above chart). This means that yesterday’s upswing is not particularly bullish. It’s a normal post-top reaction. Lower gold values are to be expected. Silver declined yesterday, and it closed the day below its late-2021 high. In other words, the breakout above this level was invalidated. This is a strong bearish confirmation from the white metal. The white metal just invalidated the move above its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. That’s bearish on its own, but let’s keep in mind that it happened right after silver outperformed gold. Last Tuesday, the GDXJ ETF was up by less than 1%, gold was up by 2.37%, and silver was up by 4.57%. Silver’s outperformance and miners’ underperformance is what we tend to see right at the tops. That’s exactly what it was – a top. Silver declined profoundly, and the attempt to break above its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level will soon be just a distant (in terms of price) memory. On a medium-term basis, silver was simply weak relative to gold, but we saw short-term outperformance. In short, that was and continues to be bearish. As far as silver’s big picture is concerned, please note that it also provides us with a confirmation of the analogy between 2012 and now. At the turn of the year in 2011/2012, there was a cyclical turning point in silver, and we saw a sizable decline in silver shortly thereafter. The same happened in 2021, after silver’s cyclical turning point. Back in 2012, silver declined more or less to its previous lows and then rallied back up, but it didn’t reach its previous top. It more or less rallied to its 50-week moving average and then by about the same amount before topping. Recently, we saw exactly the same thing. After the initial decline, silver bottomed close to its previous lows, and most recently it rallied to its 50-week moving average and then by about the same amount before topping – below the previous high. Thus, the situation is just like what it was during the 2012 top in all three key components of the precious metals sector: gold, silver, and mining stocks. We have a situation in the general stock market that points to an even quicker slide than what we saw in 2012-2013. If stocks slide sharply and significantly just like in 2008, then the same fate may await the precious metals sector – just like in 2008. In this case, silver and mining stocks (in particular, junior mining stocks) would be likely to fall in a spectacular manner. All the above was confirmed by silver’s invalidation of its breakout above the late-2021 high. Not only has the medium-term outlook been bearish, but now the short-term outlook for silver is bearish too. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
XAUUSD Decreases, Russia-Ukraine Conflict Remains, Fed Decides

XAUUSD Decreases, Russia-Ukraine Conflict Remains, Fed Decides

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 15.03.2022 14:13
  It seems that the stalemate in Ukraine has slowed down gold's bold movements. Will the Fed's decision on interest rates revive them again?  The tragedy continues. As United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said yesterday, “Ukraine is on fire and being decimated before the eyes of the world.” There have already been 1,663 civilian casualties since the Russian invasion began. What is comforting in this situation is that Russian troops have made almost no advance in recent days (although there has been some progress in southern Ukraine). They are attempting to envelop Ukrainian forces in the east of the country as they advance from the direction of Kharkiv in the north and Mariupol in the south, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to offer staunch resistance across the country. So, it seems that there is a kind of stalemate. The Russians don’t have enough forces to break decisively through the Ukrainian defense, while Ukraine’s army doesn’t have enough troops to launch an effective counteroffensive and get rid of the occupiers. Now, the key question is: in whose favor is time working? On the one hand, Russia is mobilizing fighters from its large country, but also from Syria and Nagorno-Karabakh. The invaders continue indiscriminate shelling and air attacks that cause widespread destruction among civilian population as well. On the other hand, each day Russian army suffers heavy losses, while Ukraine is getting new weapons from the West.   Implications for Gold How is gold performing during the war? As the chart below shows, the recent stabilization of the military situation in Ukraine has been negative for the yellow metal. The price of gold slid from its early March peak of $2,039 to $1,954 one week later (and today, the price is further declining). However, please note that gold makes higher highs and higher lows, so the outlook remains rather positive, although corrections are possible. On the other hand, gold’s slide despite the ongoing war and a surge in inflation could be a little disturbing. However, the reason for the decline is simple. It seems that the uncertainty reached its peak last week and has eased since then. As the chart below shows, the CBOE volatility index, also called a fear index, has retreated from its recent peak. The Russian troops have made almost no progress, the most severe response of the West is probably behind us, and the world hasn’t sunk into nuclear war. Meanwhile, the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are taking place, offering some hope for a relatively quick end to the war. As I wrote last week, “there might be periods of consolidation and even corrections if the conflict de-escalates or ends.” The anticipation of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting could also contribute to the slide in gold prices. However, the chart above also shows that credit spreads, another measure of risk perception, have continued to widen in recent days. Other fundamental factors also remain supportive of gold prices. Let’s take, for instance, inflation. As the chart below shows, the annual CPI rate has soared from 7.5% in January to 7.9% in February, the largest move since January 1982. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, surged from 6.0% to 6.4% last month, also the highest reading in forty years. The war in Ukraine can only add to the inflationary pressure. Prices of oil and other commodities have already soared. The supply chains got another blow. The US Congress is expanding its spending again to help Ukraine. Thus, the inflation peak would likely occur later than previously thought. High inflation may become more embedded, which increases the odds of stagflation. All these factors seem to be fundamentally positive for gold prices. There is one “but”. The continuous surge in inflation could prompt monetary hawks to take more decisive actions. Tomorrow, the FOMC will announce its decision on interest rates, and it will probably hike the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. The hawkish Fed could be bearish for gold prices. Having said that, historically, the Fed’s tightening cycle has been beneficial to the yellow metal when accompanied by high inflation. Last time, the price of gold bottomed out around the liftoff. Another issue is that, because of the war in Ukraine, the Fed could adopt a more dovish stance and lift interest rates in a more gradual way, which could be supportive of gold prices. The military situation in Ukraine and tomorrow’s FOMC meeting could be crucial for gold’s path in the near future. The hike in interest rates is already priced in, but the fresh dot-plot and Powell’s press conference could bring us some unexpected changes in US monetary policy. Stay tuned! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
S&P 500, Crude Oil And Credit Markets Decrease... Only Bitcoin Price Remains "The Same"

S&P 500, Crude Oil And Credit Markets Decrease... Only Bitcoin Price Remains "The Same"

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 15.03.2022 16:03
S&P 500 decline was led by tech, and made possible by credit markets‘ plunge. The 4,160s held on a closing basis, and unless the bulls clear this area pretty fast today, this key support would come under pressure once again over the nearest days. Interestingly, the dollar barely moved, but looking at the daily sea of red across commodities, the greenback would follow these to the downside. Not that real assets including precious metals would be reversing on a lasting basis here – the markets are content that especially black gold keeps flowing at whatever price, to whatever buyer(s) willing to clinch the deal. Sure, it‘s exerting downward pressure on the commodity, but I‘m looking for the extraordinary weakness to be reversed, regardless of: (…) not even the virtual certainty of only 25bp hike in Mar is providing much relief to the credit markets. Given that the real economy is considerably slowing down and that recession looks arriving before Q2 ends, the markets continue forcing higher rates (reflecting inflation). The rising tide of fundamentals constellation favoring higher real asset prices, would continue kicking in, especially when the markets sense a more profound Fed turn than we saw lately with the 50bp into 25bp for Mar FOMC. Make no mistake, the inflation horse has left the barn well over a year ago, and doesn‘t intend to come back or be tamed. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bears won the day, and are likely to regroup next – yes, that doesn‘t rule out a modest upswing that would then fizzle out. Credit Markets HYG woes continue, and credit markets keep raising rates for the Fed. The bears continue having the upper hand. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals haven‘t found the short-term bottom, but it pays to remember that they are often trading subdued before the Fed days. This is no exception, and I‘m fully looking for gold and silver to regain initiative following the cautious Fed tone. Crude Oil Crude oil didn‘t keep above $105, but would revert there in spite of the stagflationary environment (already devouring Europe). With more clarity in the various oil benchmarks, black gold would continue rising over the coming weeks. Copper Copper weakness is another short-term oddity, which I am looking for to be reversed in the FOMC‘s wake. Volume had encouragingly risen yesterday, so I‘m looking for a solid close to the week. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are very modestly turning higher, but I‘m not expecting too much of a run next. As stated yesterday, I wouldn‘t call it as risk-on constellation throughout the markets. Summary S&P 500 got into that precarious position (4,160s) yesterday, but managed to hold above. Given the usual Fed days trading pattern, stocks are likely to bounce a little before the pronouncements are made – only to continue drifting lower in their wake. That‘s valid for the central bank not making the U-turn towards easing again, which is what I‘m expecting to happen in the latter half of this year. Inflation would continue biting, and that means stocks are mired in a giant trading range a la the 1970s. Commodities and precious metals would continue building a base here, only to launch higher in response to (surprise, surprise) stubborn inflation. After all, where else to hide in during stagflations? Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
🔥 SHIBA Volatile Move Ahead: Triangle Analysis

(SHIB) Shiba Inu Price - How Will Be The Altcoin Affected?

FXStreet News FXStreet News 15.03.2022 16:27
Shiba Inu price action sees price pressure against the technical triangle base at $0.00002140. SHIB price action set to test the low of its existence. As global markets threaten to drop into a recession, investors will flee cryptocurrencies in the coming days. Shiba Inu (SHIB) price action is on the cusp of breaking out of a bearish triangle that has dictated price action over the past two months. With a break to the downside, room opens up for an almost 70% drop towards the lowest levels in its existence as investors flee cryptocurrencies overall, following more and more reports that global markets are going into recession. With this dire projection in mind, expect to see further bleeding of SHIB price action as it falls back to $0.00000655. Shiba Inu price action bleeds as investors flee from recession fears Shiba Inu price action is seeing a massive squeeze building from bears trying to break out of the bearish triangle as more and more headwinds combine each day. The situation in Ukraine and new lockdowns in China are spelling supply chain issues again, and banks are starting to use the word recession more often in their reports about the future. This weighs on investor sentiment as cryptocurrencies are put on the backfoot and witness a daily outflow of cash from investors pulling the plug on their positions. SHIB price looks to break below $0.00002140 any moment now, with considerable momentum behind it from the death cross with the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) below the 200-day SMA. Next to that, the Relative Strength Index is nowhere near being oversold, opening the door for short sellers to pick up some more gains in the downtrend. Expect to see a sharp drop in the coming days towards $0.00001000, breaking the monthly S1 and S2 support levels along the way, only to find a floor near $0.00000607, which is near the lowest level in SHIB’s. SHIB/USD daily chart Although red flags are popping up all over financial markets, investors could still be working on a turnaround in an attempt to look beyond the current crisis at hand. If central banks can steer economies out of this dire situation, expect investors to start buying into cryptocurrencies to take advantage of lucrative discounts. This could spill into a turnaround and see price action first pop back above $0.00002500, breaking the bearish 55-day SMA and hitting $0.00002787, above the 28.6% Fibonacci level.
USDCHF Nears 0.940 Levels, EURGBP Keeps Its "Stability", USOIL Is Like A Benchmark For Geopolitical Situation

USDCHF Nears 0.940 Levels, EURGBP Keeps Its "Stability", USOIL Is Like A Benchmark For Geopolitical Situation

Jing Ren Jing Ren 16.03.2022 08:11
USDCHF breaks major resistance The US dollar continues upward as the Fed is set to increase its interest rates by 25bp. The rally sped up after it cleared the daily resistance at 0.9360. The bullish breakout may have ended a 9-month long consolidation from the daily chart perspective. The rising trendline confirms the optimism and acts as an immediate support. Solid momentum could propel the greenback to April 2021’s high at 0.9470. Buyers may see a pullback as an opportunity to jump in. 0.9330 is the closest support should this happen. EURGBP tests key resistance The sterling found support after a drop in Britain’s unemployment rate in January. A break above the daily resistance at 0.8400 has prompted sellers to cover, easing the downward pressure. Sentiment remains downbeat unless buyers push the single currency past 0.8475. In turn, this could pave the way for a reversal in the weeks to come. Otherwise, the bears might double down and drive the euro back into its downtrend. A fall below 0.8360 would force early bulls to liquidate and trigger a sell-off to 0.8280. USOIL drops towards key support WTI crude falls back over a new round of ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine. Previously, a bearish RSI divergence indicated a loss of momentum as the price went parabolic. Then a steep fall below 107.00 was a sign of liquidation. Buyers continue to unwind their positions as the price slides back to its pre-war level. The psychological level of 90.00 is an important support on the daily chart. An oversold RSI may attract buying interest in this demand zone. 105.00 is the first resistance before buyers could regain control.
Binance Academy: Sandbox (SAND), Decentraland (MANA) ENJIN (ENJ) And Bloktopia (BLOK) Explained

Crypto Prices: Bitcoin (BTC) Gained 1.4%, ETH Increased By 3.1%, Polkadot (DOT) Went Up By 4.5% And Terra Decreased (-6%)

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 16.03.2022 08:30
BTC added 1.4% over the past day to $39.3K. Attempts to develop an offensive ran into a selling wall. The most important line of defense in the first cryptocurrency at the 38.0K area is still more confident withstanding all bear attacks. Ethereum added 3.1% to $2.6K in 24 hours. Other leading altcoins range from a 6% decline (Terra) to a 4.5% rise (Polkadot). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market grew by 1.4%, to $1.75 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index lost 0.1 percentage points to 42.6%. Cryptocurrency fear and greed index added 3 points to 24, although it remains in the territory of "extreme fear". The FxPro Analyst Team mentioned that during the Asian session, there was a sharp jump in the rate from $39.2K to $41.7K, followed by an almost equally rapid pullback to the area below $39.0K. Stop orders were triggered in the morning low-liquid market, but it is clear that the selling pressure remains huge. In fact, since February 10, the rises in the Bitcoin rate have become less and less long and end at ever lower levels. The reason for the jump in prices in early trading in Asia was the statements of official Beijing on support for the markets, which caused a rally in the shares of the region. However, Bitcoin frankly ignored the drawdown of Asian stocks in recent days, so it quickly returned to its place, because other factors have become its key drivers in recent days. Meanwhile, Glassnode believes that bitcoin investors may face a final capitulation. This is indicated by the high proportion of "unprofitable" coins among short-term holders. At the same time, the uncertainty associated with geopolitics and the Fed rate weakened the accumulation of BTC by hodlers and caused an increase in sales on their part.
China Stocks Go Up As There Might Be More Buybacks Coming

Hang Seng Climbs And Adds 6%, China A50 Gains Ca. 6.5%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 16.03.2022 10:01
Chinese indices are experiencing their sharpest rally yet on Wednesday amid reassurances from officials that the stock market is going to be supported. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is up 6%, China’s China A50 is gaining more than 6.5%, while China H-shar is soaring by 12%. These indices have been under increased pressure in recent weeks, getting maximum pressure this week.  On Tuesday, major Chinese indices fell fastest since March 2020, rewriting multi-year lows. Market support from officials came a day after the release of upbeat macro data, indicating a jump in retail sales and industrial production. At the same time, stock market dynamics fundamentally diverged from the economy, and there was a near point where stock volatility was already causing material disruption to the economy.  The China H-shar gained support today after sinking to the lows of late 2008, losing more than half of its price in just over a year of steady decline. The Hans Seng index touched lows since 2016 and areas of market support in 2012 at the peak of Tuesday’s decline. However, Chinese policymakers have worked hard to prevent the sell-off from turning into a self-sustaining spiral over the past two days. Yesterday’s China-US talks saw a positive reaction from the sides, forming a more than 4.5% bounce for the HangSeng during the European trading session.  This momentum was boosted on Wednesday morning after Vice Premier Liu He indicated that China is considering a package of measures to support the economy and financial markets. Soon the People’s Bank of China stated that it would help the stock market with other agencies.  Such words send a message to the market that the levels reached yesterday are a pain point for the Chinese authorities, from where they are ready to step up efforts to support the markets. Yesterday we likely saw the bottom of the Chinese indices for many months to come, despite potentially negative for stock prices rate hikes by the Fed and other major central banks for the equity market. There seems to be too much pessimism and wariness embedded in Chinese valuations after more than a year of declines.
How Will The Day End For Forex And USD? Awaiting Fed Decision....

How Will The Day End For Forex And USD? Awaiting Fed Decision....

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 16.03.2022 11:41
Today, the USD has continued its move lower, with fresh selling accelerating today. Ukrainian comments that peace talks are looking more realistic has set off risk demand with traders moving out of safe-havens and back into traditional risk markets like stocks and risk currencies like the AUD, GBP and EUR. Stock indexes in Europe and US futures are seeing firm gains heading towards the US session open. The Fed is another factor to watch today, and they meet at 2 pm ET. The FED is expected to raise rates by one-quarter of a percent, its first move higher since 2018. “My guess is it’s going to sound a little more hawkish than people want it to sound, and that’s going to be a little tough to digest, particularly in the fixed income markets,” David Zervos, chief market strategist at Jefferies, told CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Tuesday. “I think the equity market might digest it a little bit better, but it’s going to be a tough swallow.” Hawkish is normally seen as a positive for the country’s currency, but we wonder how much could be factored in from the Fed? Could it disappoint an already weak USD? It will be interesting to see if the Fed can overrule factors in Europe that have been supporting higher USD values. Oil continues to sell off from highs, inflation fears on the front might have started to cool off on the short term. We can see a LH on the daily USD chart. If this point can continue to hold, we will look for the new short term trend to remain in play—a break and close above the LH at 99.07. We will be looking for bulls to resume their push. USD Daily Chart The post Forex Update: Could the FED add to the USD woes? appeared first on Eightcap.
Snowball‘s Chance in Hell

Snowball‘s Chance in Hell

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 16.03.2022 15:40
S&P 500 is turning around, and odds are that would be so till the FOMC later today. The pressure on Powell to be really dovish, is on. I‘m looking for a lot of uncerrtainty and flexibility introduction, and much less concrete rate hikes talk that wasn‘t sufficient to crush inflation when the going was relatively good, by the way.As stated yesterday:(…) The rising tide of fundamentals constellation favoring higher real asset prices, would continue kicking in, especially when the markets sense a more profound Fed turn than we saw lately with the 50bp into 25bp for Mar FOMC. Make no mistake, the inflation horse has left the barn well over a year ago, and doesn‘t intend to come back or be tamed.Not that real assets including precious metals would be reversing on a lasting basis here – the markets are content that especially black gold keeps flowing at whatever price, to whatever buyer(s) willing to clinch the deal. Sure, it‘s exerting downward pressure on the commodity, but I‘m looking for the extraordinary weakness to be reversed.We‘re seeing such a reversal in commodities already, and precious metals have a „habit“ of joining around the press conference. Yesterday‘s performance of miners and copper, provides good enough a hint.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 upswing looks like it can go on for a while. Interestingly, it was accompanied by oil stocks declining – have we seen THE risk-on turn? This looks to be a temporary reprieve unless the Fed really overdelivers in dovishness.Credit MarketsHYG is catching some bid, and credit markets are somewhat supporting the risk-on turn. Yields though don‘t look to have put in a top just yet, which means the stock market bears would return over the coming days.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are looking very attractive, and the short-term bottom appears at hand – this is the way they often trade before the Fed. I‘m fully looking for gold and silver to regain initiative following the cautious and dovish Fed tone.Crude OilCrude oil didn‘t test the 50-day moving average, and I would expect the bulls to step in here – after all, the Fed can‘t print oil, and when they go dovish, the economy just doesn‘t crash immediately...CopperCopper is refusing to decline, and the odd short-term weakness would be reversed – and the same goes for broader commodities, which have been the subject of my recent tweet.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos aren‘t fully risk-on, but cautiously giving the bulls benefit of the doubt. Not without a pinch of salt, though.SummaryS&P 500 bulls are on the (short-term) run, and definitely need more fuel from the Fed. Significant dovish turn – they would get some, but it wouldn‘t be probably enough to carry risk-on trades through the weekend. The upswing is likely to stall before that, and commodities with precious metals would catch a fresh bid already today. This would be coupled with the dollar not making any kind of upside progress to speak of. The true Fed turn towards easing is though far away still (more than a few months away) – the real asset trades are about patience and tide working in the buyers favor. The yield curve remains flat as a pancake, and more stagflation talk isn‘t too far...Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Bitcoin price undergoes sharp fade as bulls storm out of the gate

Bitcoin price undergoes sharp fade as bulls storm out of the gate

FXStreet News FXStreet News 16.03.2022 16:28
Bitcoin price action jumped 7% but fell back sharply in European trading.BTC price action looks to be set to jump above $41,756.61 once the US session kicks in.Expect to see a further continuation of this price jump throughout the week as long as positive signals come from the ongoing talks in Russia.Bitcoin (BTC) price action is performing a countercyclical move this morning as Asian bulls storm out of the gate on positive-speak from the Chinese government. From now on into the European session, gains are still present but have faded slightly. Expect to see a subsequent round of wins coming in during the US session and going further into this week as long as positive signals are communicated independently from both sides in Ukraine and Russia peace talks.Bitcoin price sees bulls swimming against the tideBitcoin price action seems to have awakened many investors who fell asleep staring at their television screen for the past three weeks on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. As they pulled out their money and went long cash, cryptocurrencies dried up a bit and were left to the mercy of bears. Today a few bears will be licking their wounds as bulls have gone in for a push higher as more positive signals come from both Ukraine and Russia on talks, and markets are getting used to the war headlines as everything looks to be priced in. BTC price action technically got rejected to the upside at $41,756.61, the base of a bearish triangle that formed a few weeks ago. Expect this fade in early trading to provide a window of opportunity for European and American bulls to join the rally and ramp up the price above $41,756.61, where a close above will be key this evening. If trading can start on Thursday with an opening price above $41,756.61, expect to see another leg higher by tomorrow evening, near $44,088.73 and even $45,261.84 by Friday.BTC/USD daily chartThe risk could be that the current fade, after the rejection at $41,756.61, could topple into a deeper loss if bears push the price below the opening price. This would trigger panic amongst bulls that got in and will have them remember the same scenario that happened exactly one week ago on Wednesday with a false breakout and a full paring back, and even eking out further losses the day after. Expect bulls to exit instantly once BTC price action prints red numbers, and this to spiral into a setback for BTC price towards $38,703.32 or even $36,709.19.
KOG Report – FOMC, what can we expect on Gold?

KOG Report – FOMC, what can we expect on Gold?

Knights of Gold Knights of Gold 16.03.2022 20:02
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/E41DqfO0-XAUUSD-KOG-REPORT-FOMC/ FOMC – 16/03/22 This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price. We’re going to use the 1H chart for todays FOMC Report and will say that we’ll stick with this for the remainder of the sessions, unless anything changes. As usual we’ll give our daily updates and levels with our latest thoughts and ideas. We can see the market reacting to any news coming out of Russia/Ukraine which is causing traders difficulty in trying to swing trade this to the upside. We expecting this to give a push up at some point, whether that’s today or not remains to be seen. The key levels here are 1889 and 1870 below with the higher levels being 1937-40 and above that the 1950-60 level which would fill the imbalance. So as usual we’ll look at this with 2 scenarios in mind with our bias being to the upside at the moment! Scenario 1: They push the price down, we’ll wait for the levels of 1880 and breaking that 1860-65 before testing the long trade back up to target the 1920-30 price point initially. We feel it will go higher if it comes back up so we’ll look to protect any trades we get good entries on and take partials along the way. We have a KOG target at 1885 which we’re not far from so there’s a chance we may hit that. Scenario 2: They push the price up, we will only be looking for extreme key levels in this scenario to short the market. There is a chance they will want to test at least that 1950-60 level so we’ll wait there to short the market back down. It’s facing difficult and extreme market conditions which are being driven by fear. We’ve maintained we will take it easy and trade this level to level which has worked very well for us this month. What we don’t want to do is get stuck in trades if this decides to move and give any profits back to the market. For that reason we would say please trade this safely, reduce your lots sizes and give yourself time to think about your entry and exit. Always have a risk strategy in place and if you’re not comfortable with it please stay out. Cash is also a position, the markets won’t be like this forever. There is of course the case that this is likely priced in and we don’t see much movement so please also keep that in mind. It all depends on the question and answer session which will be after the release. As always, trade safe. KOG
Oil Prices Keep Falling. Is It Time to Get Long on Black Gold?

Oil Prices Keep Falling. Is It Time to Get Long on Black Gold?

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 16.03.2022 16:43
  Crude oil continues to decline due to lowered demand, and the petrodollar seems threatened, losing interest. What is the best strategy to take now?  Oil prices kept falling this week, driven by potential progress in Ukraine-Russia talks and a potential slowdown in the Giant Panda’s (China) economic growth due to epidemic lockdowns in some regions where a surge of Omicron was observed. As I mentioned in my previous article, India considers getting Russian crude oil supplies and other commodities at a reduced price by settling transactions through a rupee/rouble payment system. Meanwhile, we keep getting rumors – notably reported by The Wall Street Journal – that Saudi Arabia and China are also currently discussing pricing some Saudi oil exports directly in yuan. The Chinese are actively seeking to dethrone the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, and this latest development suggests that the petrodollar is now under threat. US Dollar Currency Index (DXY) CFD (daily chart) The recent correction in crude oil, happening just seven days after reaching its 14-year highs, might show some signs that the conflict in Ukraine will slow down consumption. On the other hand, if Iranian and Venezuelan barrels flooded the market, we could see crude oil, petroleum products, and distillates turning into new bear markets. WTI Crude Oil (CLJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Brent Crude Oil (BRNK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart) RBOB Gasoline (RBJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) That’s all folks for today – happy trading! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
XAUUSD After Fed Decision, NZDUSD And CADJPY Climbs

XAUUSD After Fed Decision, NZDUSD And CADJPY Climbs

Jing Ren Jing Ren 17.03.2022 08:15
XAUUSD stabilizes Gold struggles as the Fed maps out aggressive tightening. The precious metal has given up all its gains from the previous parabolic rise, which suggests a lack of commitment to support the rally. The price is testing the origin of the bullish breakout at 1907 which coincides with the 30-day moving average. An oversold RSI attracted some buying interest. 1961 is the hurdle ahead before a rebound could materialize. Further down, 1880 is key support on the daily chart and its breach could reverse the course in the weeks to come. NZDUSD attempts rebound The New Zealand dollar found support from a rebound in commodity prices. The pair saw solid bids in the demand zone around 0.6725 and right over the 30-day moving average. A bullish RSI divergence showed a deceleration in the pullback, which would have caught buyers’ attention in this congestion area. A close above 0.6800 has prompted short-term sellers to cover and leave the door open for a rebound. 0.6870 is the last major resistance and a bullish breakout could propel the kiwi past the recent peak at 0.6920. CADJPY breaks key resistance The Canadian dollar shot higher after February’s CPI beat expectations. A break above last October’s high at 93.00 could be an ongoing signal to end a 5-month long consolidation. The RSI’s double top in the overbought area may temporarily hold the bulls back. As sentiment turns overwhelmingly upbeat, buyers may be eager to jump in at a discounted price. The supply-turned-demand zone near 91.60 is an important level to safeguard the breakout. The psychological level of 94.00 could see resistance.
Binance Academy: Non-fungible Tokens: $69 Millions For An NFT!? NFT - What Is It?

Non-fungible Token Of Instagram!? Bitcoin (BTC) Trades Quite High

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 17.03.2022 08:53
Instagram will implement NFT in a couple of months, Meta founder Mark Zuckerberg said. Despite the loud statement, it should be noted that all of Zuckerberg's projects related to digital assets previously failed and did not find wide support from the digital community. The head of Meta has a good sense of trends of social networks, augmented reality or metaverses, and in the latter two, there are more and more fast-growing projects. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is up nearly 4% over the past 24 hours to $41K. Ethereum added 4.7% to $2.75K, while Terra is out of the range, losing 0.6% in 24 hours, and other leading altcoins from the top ten add from 3.5% (XRP) to 9.8% (Avalanche). The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, grew by 4% over the day, to $1.82 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index rose 0.2 points to 42.8%. The crypto-currency index of fear and greed added 3 more points in a day, to 27, moving from extreme anxiety to just fear. The FxPro Analyst Team mentioned that demand for bitcoin was supported by it rising for the second day in a row. It was helped by the strengthening of stock indices and the weakening of the dollar. On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve raised rates by 0.25%, but the comments made by market participants seemed softer than expected, which caused the dollar to fall. According to Glassnode, $1.2 billion worth of bitcoin was withdrawn from the Coinbase crypto exchange in just a week. This is the largest net outflow since July 2017, which signals the mood of investors for long-term storage of the asset. Despite the positive dynamics in recent days, Bitcoin has been trading in a sideways range between $37K and $42K for almost the entire month of March, unable to choose a further direction. Since the last days of February, there has been a solid support line on the declines under $38K. And this is bullish strength, reflecting that long-term buyer interest has migrated from $30K to $38K due to inflation and geopolitical tensions. Such a migration of the level of interest to long-term buyers fully reflects the price jump, which is the actual depreciation of the value of fiat currencies.
Here's your first look at Cyberpunk: Edgerunners! Coming to Netflix this September!

AMC Stock Price: AMC Entertainment spikes 8% on Wednesday

FXStreet News FXStreet News 17.03.2022 08:29
AMC stock gains on Tuesday as equities and growth stocks rally. More gains are likely on Wednesday for AMC shares as peace hopes rise for Ukraine. AMC Entertainment also saw increased attention from its investment in Hycroft Mining. AMC shares are up 8% to $15.65 as better prospects for peace in Ukraine seem to be lifting up the entire market. The Nasdaq has risen an optimistic 2.7% about one hour into Wednesday's session. Further positivity is in motion with the start of the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee two-day meeting that is expected to usher in a 25 basis point rise in the fed funds rate. The rise in interest rates should slow this year's hike in inflation. This price action is certainly exciting for AMC apes, who have witnessed AMC stock drop to the low $13s earlier this week. AMC Entertainment did benefit in Tuesday's afternoon session from its acquisition of Hycroft Mining, but it seems the stock is gaining more interest on Wednesday for this buy. Now its acquisition target, HYMC, has seen its shares go in the opposite direction on Wednesday. HYMC stock is trading down 9% at $1.37 at the time of writing. AMC stock closed higher on Tuesday as investors took comfort from the continued collapse in oil prices and hoped for some form of peace in Ukraine. It was oil that was the big driver for equity markets, and growth stock, in particular, bounced hard as this sector had seen the bigger losses since the year began. It is hard to see guess whether this movie can be sustained long term though as yields have once again moved up. This should stall growth stocks. A peace deal would see further gains for all sectors, but then these may be capped if yields keep rising. The Fed decision later on Wednesday will give us more clarity on this. AMC Stock News The big news yesterday though for AMC apes was the investment in Hycroft Mining by AMC. This was right out of left field and remains a puzzling one to say the least. Hycroft Mining is a gold and silver miner with one mine in Nevada. The company has not turned a profit since 2013 and last November said it may need to raise capital to meet future financial obligations. The company also laid off over half of its workforce at the mine last November. This is a pretty high-risk investment and perhaps AMC and AMC apes are used to that. It was only a small outlet as CEO adam Aron alluded to. Nevertheless, the Hycroft Mining (HYMC) stock price soared as retail investors piled into the name. By the opening of the regular session on Tuesday, HYMC stock was trading nearly 100% higher, but it closed only 9% higher at $1.52 having traded up to $2.97. The reason for the dramatic turnaround was probably a bit of reality set into investors once they had a look at Hycroft Mining and its financial condition. The main reason was a Bloomberg report saying that Hycroft Mining could do a $500 million share sale by as early as next Tuesday. We understand the sale is ongoing and being led by B.Riley Securities. AMC Stock Forecast We were quite negative on this deal on Tuesday and remain so. At least it is not a big investment for AMC, but it still reads poorly. This will not endear AMC stock to further credibility in our view. CNBC carried out a report yesterday about the surge in price and volume trading in HYMC stock before the AMC announcement: "Small mining firm with troubled history saw big spikes in stock price, trading volume ahead of AMC deal." Tuesday's move took AMC back up to our resistance level at $14.54, which was a key breakdown level. Below this and AMC remains bearish. Above $14.54 is neutral. We remain bearish on AMC with a target price of $8.95. AMC stock chart, daily Prior Update: AMC stock opened higher on Wednesday as the stock market remains on edge over the potential for some form of a peace deal in Ukraine. Oil prices falling sharply has also helped investor sentiment. AMC is currently trading at $14.77 for a gain of exactly 2% after 5 minutes of the regular session on Tuesday. Hycroft Mining (HYMC) stock is trading 4% lower at the same stage on Wednesday. Later we get the Fed interest rate decision which may hamper more progress from growth stocks but for now, it is full steam ahead. AMC is back among the top trending stocks on social media sites and interest seems high. $14.54 remains a key level for AMC to hold above if it wants to have put a bottom formation in place. Otherwise, it will return to the bearish trend and look to target $8.95 in our view.
Walter Herz is expanding Tenant Representation department

Walter Herz is expanding Tenant Representation department

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 17.03.2022 12:26
2021 was a period of intense work, development of a new organizational structure and expanding the team for Walter Herz. The company is operating in the commercial real estate sector, providing comprehensive consulting services across Poland. Consistent expansion of services and the need to provide clients with integrated service and comprehensive support, resulted in a new role emerging in the company. Mateusz Strzelecki, a long-term market expert who has been associated with Walter Herz for 9 years, was appointed Head of Tenant Representation. The promotion opened up even greater opportunities for him to further develop the spectrum of consulting services provided by the company to its clients and to vastly expand its operations in the area of office tenant representation on the largest business markets in the country. - The office market is still the primary focus of ​​Walter Herz's operations. However, the sector has become more demanding due to the intense process of changes and the emerging new directions of its development. Contrary to some predictions, stationary offices have kept their position. A lot is happening in the office market and clients need comprehensive support. Companies still invest heavily in workspace, some even more than before. In order to ensure the highest standard of consulting and full process security in the context of the constant evolution of the market, we must constantly develop. This is what makes our job very interesting, and customer satisfaction is a great motivation for us. Tenant's rights are a field I specialize in. I am pleased to share my knowledge with our business partners and clients, as well as with the participants of Tenant Academy, where I am a lecturer - says Mateusz Strzelecki, Head of Tenant Representation/Partner at Walter Herz. - We have been providing consulting for clients investing in the commercial real estate sector in Poland for a decade. This past year, despite the difficult situation on the market, brought progress for the company, both in terms of the scale of operations and employment growth. We focused on the development of the Office Tenant Representation department. Mateusz Strzelecki, who has been promoted to the position of Head of Tenant Representation, has been responsible for managing the team of advisers and for providing comprehensive support to clients – says BartÅ‚omiej Zagrodnik, Managing Partner/CEO at Walter Herz. An important event for the company was the recent opening of a branch in Lodz. Apart from Warsaw and Cracow, Lodz is the third stationary Walter Herz branch in the country. Therefore, Magdalena Góra has joined the Lodz branch as a Senior Business Development Specialist. - Magda will support our Tenant Representation team in acquiring customers. He has been working in the commercial real estate market for many years. So far, she has advised office tenants, working in the furnishing industry. At Walter Herz, she will have the opportunity to see the market from a different angle. We believe that the combination of our diverse experiences and competences will allow us to raise the standard and comprehensiveness of our consulting, thanks to a broader view of the entire process - says Mateusz Strzelecki, Head of Tenant Representation / Partner at Walter Herz. - We are expanding the scope of strategic consulting services, flexibly changing the employment structure. The expansion of the team allowed us to improve our qualifications in all areas of the commercial real estate market. Last year, employment in the company increased by 30 per cent. We are constantly investing in the development of our organization, including through regular, personalized training that allows to improve the expertise and skills of the employees. We care for the development of our staff and professional fulfillment of all people in the team. Among them, we have numerous long-term employees who take up new functions and are successively being promoted. The company is still actively looking for specialists with experience in consulting concerning all sectors of the real estate market for project teams, in order to be able to effectively develop partner relations with clients and provide them with the necessary knowledge - says Magdalena Zagrodnik, Head of HR & Business Partner at Walter Herz. In everyday work with clients, the company’s motto is - We care & We share. This goal is also a guideline for the further implementation of Walter Herz’s Tenant Academy - a proprietary training project designed to educate tenants of commercial space across the country. Last year, during the fifth edition of the event, we organized five specialized webinars and one hybrid panel. Almost 1000 participants signed up for it. About Walter Herz Walter Herz company is a leading Polish entity which has been operating in the commercial real estate sector across the country. For ten years, the company has been providing comprehensive and strategic investment consulting services for tenants, investors and real estate owners across the country. Walter Herz experts assist investors, property owners and tenants. They provide full service, to companies from the private as well as public sectors. Walter Herz advisors support clients in finding and leasing space, and provide consulting in the implementation of investment projects in the warehouse, office, retail and hotel sectors. The company is based in Warsaw and runs regional branches in Cracow and Łódź. Walter Herz has created the Tenant Academy, the first project in Poland, which supports and educates commercial tenants from all over Poland by organizing specialized training meetings. In order to ensure the highest ethical level of services provided, the agency introduced the Code of Good Practice.
Forex Update: Could the FED add to the USD woes?

Forex Update: Could the FED add to the USD woes?

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 17.03.2022 11:41
Today, the USD has continued its downside move, with fresh selling accelerating. The Ukrainian comments that peace talks are looking more realistic has set off risk demand with traders moving out of safe-havens and back into traditional risk assets, including stocks and currencies like AUD, GBP and EUR. Meanwhile, stock indexes in Europe and US futures are seeing firm gains heading towards the US session open. The Fed is another factor to watch today, because they’ll meet at 2 pm ET. FOMC is expected to raise rates by one-quarter of a percent, which will be its first move higher since 2018. “My guess is it’s going to sound a little more hawkish than people want it to sound, and that’s going to be a little tough to digest, particularly in the fixed income markets,”, David Zervos, chief market strategist at Jefferies, told CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Tuesday. “I think the equity market might digest it a little better, but it’s going to be a tough swallow.” Hawkish is normally seen as a positive for the country’s currency, but we wonder how much could be factored in from the Fed? Could it disappoint an already weak USD? It will be interesting to see if the Fed can overrule factors in Europe that have been supporting higher USD values. Oil continues to sell off from its highs. On other hand, inflation fears on the front might have started to cool off in the short-term. We can see the lower highs (LH) on the daily US Dollar Index chart. If this point can continue to hold, we will look for a new short-term trend to remain in play—a break and close above the LH at 99.07. We will be looking for bulls to resume their push. USD Daily Chart The post Forex Update: Could the FED add to the USD woes? appeared first on Eightcap.
How To Use A 'Collar' To Protect Your Portfolio Against Losses

How To Use A 'Collar' To Protect Your Portfolio Against Losses

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 17.03.2022 15:55
How can we protect our portfolio against losses when stocks are in a correction?  Or even if stocks are not currently in a correction?   There are many schools of thought on that. One way is to close positions and wait for more bullish times on the sidelines.  But that may not be the best choice for any number of reasons.Perhaps you are bullish on a stock position long-term and don’t want to sell it.  Maybe you already have a nice gain on your shares but are worried about a further decline.  Or perhaps there’s a dividend that you would like to continue to collect.  Simple Portfolio “Insurance”One relatively straightforward way to protect open stock positions is to buy Put protection.  Puts are option contracts that have an inverse correlation to price.   If the shares go down in price, the value of the Put will increase, thereby providing some offset to losses in the underlying stock.   The tradeoff is that Puts come at an out-of-pocket cost, and they expire.  There’s a cost to carry to have that “insurance” in place.Taking it a Step Further with a “Collar”A Collar can be an effective strategy to ensure against significant losses.  A common way to offset the cost of purchasing protective Puts is to implement a Collar strategy using options.Calls are option contracts that increase in value when the underlying shares go up in value.  We can sell Calls against our long stock and collect a premium.   That’s a simple Covered Call strategy.  But in itself, we get no downside protection on our shares other than the amount of the premium collected for selling the Calls.We can take that a step further by using the premium collected from selling the Calls to purchase protective Puts.  That’s known as a Collar.   And depending on the option strike prices and duration, we may be able to do that for a net credit and put a little extra profit in our pocket.Putting on a CollarSince options contracts control 100 shares per contract, the number of shares you want to protect determines the number of contracts.  Say you have 1,000 shares.  In that case, the Collar position would consist of 10 short Calls and 10 long Puts.  Here’s a P/L graph of a Collar on AAPL.  In this example, the stock is at $160.  A $170 Call is sold for $1.25, and a $140 Put is purchased at $1.00.  A Net credit of $0.25 is collected when the position is put on. Both options are 30 days to expiration (DTE). The TradeoffsWhile it’s tempting to think of the Collar as a way to get “free” Put protection, there are some tradeoffs.   By selling Calls, we are limiting our upside.  In the example above, we could have a $10 gain to the upside.  We’d also get to keep any net premiums collected, another $0.25 per share.  But because we’re obligated to provide shares at $170, we have capped our profit potential.The Collar also only gives us partial protection to the downside.  Options also have a limited life and expire. What Happens at Expiration?If the share price is above our Call strike price at expiration, we’re likely to have our shares “called away” – meaning we’ll be obligated to sell our shares at the strike price, $170 in this example.  But we could also extend the duration by rolling that Call out for additional credit.  As long as there are more than a few cents of time value in our short Call, we’re less likely to have it exercised even if it is in-the-money (ITM).   If our counterparty wanted to close their position, as long as there’s time value left in the option, they would be better off to sell their long Call rather than exercise it against us.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! If the share price is between our Call and Put strike prices at expiration, those options expire worthlessly, and we’re left with our stock as before.If the share price has dropped below our Put strike, we would want to either sell the Put or exercise it.  We could “put” the stock to our counterparty at $140 per share.  Alternately, we could sell the Put and continue to hold onto our shares.The best case is for the options to expire with the share price just below the Call strike price.  In that case, both the Puts and the Calls expire worthlessly, and we get to keep our shares.  We are then free to sell shares at a profit or keep them and apply another Collar further out in time.SummaryIf you own shares that you don’t want to sell, consider putting on a Collar using options to give you some downside protection.  A Collar entails selling calls against your shares and using the premium collected to purchase puts for downside protection.  The tradeoff is your upside is limited.  But you get to hold onto your shares to continue to collect dividends (if any), all while having long Puts in place for downside protection.Read On To Learn More About Options TradingEvery day on Options Trading Signals, we do defined risk trades that protect us from black swan events 24/7. Many may think that is what stop losses are for. Well, remember the markets are only open about 1/3 of the hours in a day. Therefore, a stop loss only protects you for 1/3 of each day. Stocks can gap up or down. With options, you are always protected because we do defined risk in a spread. We cover with multiple legs, which are always on once you own.   If you are new to trading or have been trading stock but are interested in options, you can find more information at The Technical Traders – Options Trading Signals Service. The head Options Trading Specialist Brian Benson, who has been trading options for almost 20 years, sends out real live trade alerts on actual trades, such as TSLA and NVDA, with real money. Ready to subscribe, click here:  TheTechnicalTraders.com.Enjoy your day!
Interaction Between Price Of Gold (XAUUSD) And Fed's Interest Rate Decision

Interaction Between Price Of Gold (XAUUSD) And Fed's Interest Rate Decision

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 17.03.2022 16:07
  The Fed will want to keep inflation under control, and that could have miserable consequences for gold and miners. Will we see a repeat from 2008?  The question one of my subscribers asked me was about the rise in mining stocks and gold and how it was connected to what was happening in bond yields. Precisely, while short-term and medium-term yields moved higher, very long-term yields (the 30-year yields) dropped, implying that the Fed will need to lower the rates again, indicating a stagflationary environment in the future. First of all, I agree that stagflation is likely in the cards, and I think that gold will perform similarly to how it did during the previous prolonged stagflation – in the 1970s. In other words, I think that gold will move much higher in the long run. However, the market might have moved ahead of itself by rallying yesterday. After all, the Fed will still want to keep inflation under control (reminder: it has become very political!), and it will want commodity prices to slide in response to the foregoing. This means that the Fed will still likely make gold, silver, and mining stocks move lower in the near term. In particular, silver and mining stocks are likely to decline along with commodities and stocks, just like what happened in 2008. Speaking of commodities, let’s take a look at what’s happening in copper. Copper invalidated another attempt to move above its 2011 high. This is a very strong technical sign that copper (one of the most popular commodities) is heading lower in the medium term. Yes, it might be difficult to visualize this kind of move given the recent powerful upswing, but please note that it’s in perfect tune with the previous patterns. The interest rates are going up, just like they did before the 2008 slide. What did copper do before the 2008 slide? It failed to break above the previous (2006) high, and it was the failure of the second attempt to break higher that triggered the powerful decline. What happened then? Gold declined, but silver and mining stocks truly plunged. The GDXJ was not trading at the time, so we’ll have to use a different proxy to see what this part of the mining stock sector did. The Toronto Stock Exchange Venture Index includes multiple junior mining stocks. It also includes other companies, but juniors are a large part of it, and they truly plunged in 2008. In fact, they plunged in a major way after breaking below their medium-term support lines and after an initial corrective upswing. Guess what – this index is after a major medium-term breakdown and a short-term corrective upswing. It’s likely ready to fall – and to fall hard. So, what’s likely to happen? We’re about to see a huge slide, even if we don’t see it within the next few days. In fact, the outlook for the next few days is rather unclear, as different groups of investors can interpret yesterday’s developments differently. However, once the dust settles, the precious metals sector is likely to go down significantly. Gold is up in today’s pre-market trading, but please note that back in 2020, after the initial post-top slide, gold corrected even more significantly, and it wasn’t really bullish. This time gold doesn’t have to rally to about $2,000 before declining once again, as this time the rally was based on war, and when we consider previous war-based rallies (U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, U.S. invasion of Iraq, Russia’s invasion of Crimea), we know that when the fear-and-uncertainty-based top was in, then the decline proceeded without bigger corrections. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
S&P 500 (SPX) - It Looks Like Fed Decision Was Needed To Go Up

S&P 500 (SPX) - It Looks Like Fed Decision Was Needed To Go Up

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 17.03.2022 15:57
S&P 500 reversed the pre-FOMC decline, and turned up. The upswing didn‘t fizzle out after the conference, quite to the contrary, the credit markets deepened their risk-on posture. I guess stocks are buying the story of 7 rate hikes and balance sheet reduction in 2022 a bit too enthusiastically. Not gonna happen, next quarter‘s GDP data would probably be already negative. Yet Powell says that the risk of recession into next year isn‘t elevated – given the projected tightening, I beg to differ. But of course, Powell is right – it‘s only that we won‘t see all those promised hikes, let alone balance sheet reduction starting in spring. Inflation would retreat a little towards year‘s end (on account of recessionary undercurrents and modest tightening), only to surprise once again in 2023 on the upside. I already wrote so weeks ago – before the East European events. There wouldn‘t enough time to celebrate the notion of vanquishing inflation. For now, stocks can continue the bullish turn – just as commodities and precious metals aren‘t asking permission. The FOMC is over, and real assets can rise, including the badly beaten crude oil. Made a good decision to keep adding to the commodities positions at much lower prices (or turning bullish stocks around the press conference). Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 upswing looks like it can go on for a while. It was driven by tech, participating more enthusiastically than value. The conditions are in place for the rally to continue, and it‘s likely that Friday would be a better day than Thursday for the bulls. Credit Markets HYG is catching quite some bid, and credit markets have turned decidedly risk-on. It also looks like a sigh of relief over no 50bp hike – the stock market rally got its hesitant ally. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals upswing can return – and this correction wasn‘t anyway sold heavily into. Needless to say how overdone it was if you look at the miners. $1950s would be reconquered easily. Crude Oil Crude oil bottom looks to be in, and $110s are waiting. Obviously it would take more than a couple of days to return there, but we‘re on the way. Copper Copper is rebounding, and even if other base metals aren‘t yet following too enthusiastically, $4.70 isn‘t far away. Coupled with precious metals returning to more reasonable values, the red metal would continue trending higher. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are leaning risk-on, and the bulls will close this weekend on a good note. Today‘s price action is merely a consolidation in a short-term upswing. Summary S&P 500 bulls got enough fuel from the Fed, and the run can continue – albeit at a slower pace. Importantly, credit markets aren‘t standing in the short-term way, but I think they would carve out a bearish divergence when this rally starts topping out. I‘m not looking for fresh ATHs, the headwinds are too stiff, but as stated within today‘s key analysis, the tech participation is a very encouraging sign for the short-term. The dollar indeed didn‘t make any kind of upside progress to speak of yesterday – and as I have also written at length in yesterday‘s report, the pre-FOMC trading pattern in real assets can be reversed now. Long live precious metals, oil and copper gains! Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
GBPUSD Almost Full Recovered After BoE's Decision, USDJPY Doesn't Fluctuate Significantly, S&P 500 (SPX) Is Not So Far From 4400.00

GBPUSD Almost Full Recovered After BoE's Decision, USDJPY Doesn't Fluctuate Significantly, S&P 500 (SPX) Is Not So Far From 4400.00

Jing Ren Jing Ren 18.03.2022 07:58
GBPUSD attempts to rebound The British pound stalled after the BOE failed to secure a unanimous vote for higher rates. A bullish RSI divergence suggests exhaustion in the sell-off, and combined with the indicator’s oversold condition on the daily chart, may attract buying interest. A tentative break above 1.3190 led some sellers to take profit. The bulls will need to push above the 1.3250 next to the 20-day moving average to get a foothold. On the downside, the psychological level of 1.3000 is a critical floor to keep the current rebound valid. USDJPY takes a breather The Japanese yen struggles as the BOJ pledges to stick with stimulus. Sentiment turned extremely bullish after the pair rallied above December 2016’s high at 118.60. The RSI went overbought on both hourly and daily charts, and the overextension could refrain buyers from chasing bids. Trend followers may be waiting to buy at pullbacks. 117.70 is the first level to gauge buying interest and 116.80 is the second line of support. A rebound above 119.00 would extend gains beyond the psychological level of 120.00. SPX 500 tests resistance The S&P 500 bounced higher after Russia averted a bond default. Price action has stabilized above last June’s lows around 4140 where a triple bottom indicates a strong interest in keeping the index afloat. A previous attempt above 4350 forced sellers to cover but hit resistance at 4420. A bullish close above this key level on the daily chart could trigger a runaway rally. 4590 would be the next target when sentiment turns around. Otherwise, a lack of conviction from the buy-side would send the index to test 4250.
Trading plan for Dogecoin on June 22, 2022

Dogecoin price could tank as India’s central bank closes the doors to cryptos

FXStreet News FXStreet News 17.03.2022 16:34
The Indian Central Bank came out this morning with firm rejection against adopting cryptocurrencies in the country. Dogecoin price action undergoes firm rejection against a double technical barrier. DOGE set to tank by 8% as bears see opportunity fit to pair back gains from Wednesday yet again. Dogecoin (DOGE) price action saw bulls being hit by ice-cold water this morning as two headlines made the sky drop on their heads. These were the Kremlin coming out saying that talks are nowhere near as positive as markets are frontrunning, and the Indian Central Bank (RBI) giving a firm rejection to the adoption of cryptocurrencies. The RBI branded cryptocurrencies as a tool that will wreck the currency system, monetary authority and government's ability to control the economy. This is a significant blow and setback for cryptocurrencies that saw bulls coming up yesterday for a catch of fresh air but are now again submerged underwater with negative prints today. Dogecoin price gains short-lived Dogecoin price action is not currently in a sweet spot as in just 5 minutes, two separate comments unrelated to each other trashed bulls’ game plan to target $0.1357 next week. Instead, DOGE price action fell back to its opening price and took a step back as bulls reassessed the situation – due to some unforeseen tail risks that caused headwinds overpowering the tailwinds that emerged the day before. Expect to possibly see DOGE price action tumble again to the downside, in a similar scenario to last week. DOGE price action got a firm rejection from negative headlines at $0.1197 with the green ascending trend line and that intermediary top-line proving too big for bulls to take on. Instead, price action collapsed back to the entry-level and looked heavy and dangling, as if poised to drop at any moment to the downside. A possible downside target is set at $0.1137 and $0.1100 with the last one making a triple bottom – although there is also the risk of a break even further to the downside if more tail-risk materialises. DOGE/USD daily chart Once the US session takes over, it could well be that investors look beyond these very short-term headlines, considering them as partial hiccups before moving on. That would mean a pickup in buying interest which could lead to a punch through $0.1197 to the upside. This would open the door towards $0.1242 intraday and possibly again on track for $0.1357.
Despite Ultra-Hawkish Fed’s Meeting, Gold Jumps

Despite Ultra-Hawkish Fed’s Meeting, Gold Jumps

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 17.03.2022 17:29
  The FOMC finally raised interest rates and signaled six more hikes this year. Despite the very hawkish dot plot, gold went up in initial reaction. There has been no breakthrough in Ukraine. Russian invasion has largely stalled on almost all fronts, so the troops are focusing on attacking civilian infrastructure. However, according to some reports, there is a slow but gradual advance in the south. Hence, although Russia is not likely to conquer Kyiv, not saying anything about Western Ukraine, it may take some southern territory under control, connecting Crimea with Donbas. The negotiations are ongoing, but it will be a long time before any agreement is reached. Let’s move to yesterday’s FOMC meeting. As widely expected, the Fed raised the federal funds rate. Finally! Although one Committee member (James Bullard) opted for a bolder move, the US central bank lifted the target range for its key policy rate only by 25 basis points, from 0-0.25% to 0.25-0.50%. It was the first hike since the end of 2018. The move also marks the start of the Fed’s tightening cycle after two years of ultra-easy monetary policy implemented in a response to the pandemic-related recession. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate from 1/4 to 1/2 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. It was, of course, the most important part of the FOMC statement. However, the central bankers also announced the beginning of quantitative tightening, i.e., the reduction of the enormous Fed’s balance sheet, at the next monetary policy meeting in May. In addition, the Committee expects to begin reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at a coming meeting. It’s also worth mentioning that the Fed deleted all references to the pandemic from the statement. Instead, it added a paragraph related to the war in Ukraine, pointing out that its exact implications for the U.S. economy are not yet known, except for the general upward pressure on inflation and downward pressure on GDP growth: The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The implications for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain, but in the near term the invasion and related events are likely to create additional upward pressure on inflation and weigh on economic activity. These changes in the statement were widely expected, so their impact on the gold market should be limited.   Dot Plot and Gold The statement was accompanied by the latest economic projections conducted by the FOMC members. So, how do they look at the economy right now? As the table below shows, the central bankers expect the same unemployment rate and much slower economic growth this year compared to last December. This is a bit strange, as slower GDP growth should be accompanied by higher unemployment, but it’s a positive change for the gold market. What’s more, the FOMC participants see inflation now as even more persistent because they expect 4.3% PCE inflation at the end of 2022 instead of 2.6%. Inflation is forecasted to decline in the following years, but only to 2.7% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024, instead of the 2.3% and 2.1% seen in December. Slower economic growth accompanied by more stubborn inflation makes the economy look more like stagflation, which should be positive for gold prices. Last but not least, a more aggressive tightening cycle is coming. Brace yourselves! According to the fresh dot plot, the FOMC members see seven hikes in interest rates this year as appropriate. That’s a huge hawkish turn compared to December, when they perceived only three interest rate hikes as desired. The central bankers expect another four hikes in 2024 instead of just the three painted in the previous dot plot. Hence, the whole forecasted path of the federal fund rate has become steeper as it’s expected to reach 1.9% this year and 2.8% next year, compared to the 0.9% and 1.6% seen earlier. Wow, that’s a huge change that is very bearish for gold prices! The Fed signaled the fastest tightening since 2004-2006, which indicates that it has become really worried about inflation. It’s also possible that the war in Ukraine helped the US central bank adopt a more hawkish stance, as if monetary tightening leads to recession, there is an easy scapegoat to blame.   Implications for Gold What does the recent FOMC meeting mean for the gold market? Well, the Fed hiked interest rates and announced quantitative tightening. These hawkish actions are theoretically negative for the yellow metal, but they were probably already priced in. The new dot plot is certainly more surprising. It shows higher inflation and slower economic growth this year, which should be bullish for gold. However, the newest economic projections also forecast a much steeper path of interest rates, which should, theoretically, prove to be negative for the price of gold. How did gold perform? Well, it has been sliding recently in anticipation of the FOMC meeting. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal plunged from $2,039 last week to $1,913 yesterday. However, the immediate reaction of gold to the FOMC meeting was positive. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal rebounded, jumping above $1,940. Of course, we shouldn’t draw too many conclusions from the short-term moves, but gold’s resilience in the face of the ultra-hawkish FOMC statement is a bullish sign. Although it remains to be seen whether the upward move will prove to be sustainable, I wouldn’t be surprised if it will. This is what history actually suggests: when the Fed started its previous tightening cycle in December 2015, the price of gold bottomed out. Of course, history never repeats itself to the letter, but there is another important factor. The newest FOMC statement was very hawkish – probably too hawkish. I don’t believe that the Fed will hike interest rates to 1.9% this year. And you? It means that we have probably reached the peak of the Fed’s hawkishness and that it will rather soften its stance from then on. If I’m right, a lot of the downward pressure that constrained gold should be gone now. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
(SPX) S&P 500 Reaches $4400 Level - Stock Markets Supported By Several Factors

(SPX) S&P 500 Reaches $4400 Level - Stock Markets Supported By Several Factors

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 18.03.2022 11:05
The global equity market also continues to thaw after a pronounced decline since the start of the year. Initial reports of progress on the peace talks were later supported by indications that the US and China are looking to reduce friction between them and avoid new threats against each other. In addition, reassurances from the world’s major central banks over the past week sounded very encouraging. As a result, the Fear and Greed Index has moved out of the extreme fear territory, having bottomed out last week at levels last seen in March 2020. A return to territory above 20 for the index would typically mean a reversal to growth. One should note the increasing divergence between the S&P500 price and the Relative Strength Index, where since late January, S&P500’s lower lows has been marked by RSI’s higher low. The S&P500 has bounced back from its lows by almost 6% and is now testing the 50-day moving average. A consolidation above 4400 would signal the start of a broader, more powerful rally. Now it looks like the bravest already bought when there was “blood on the streets”; now, it is time for a broader range of buyers to step in. Gold and oil prices remain indicators of the military stand-off between Russia and Ukraine. Signs that progress in talks has stalled have put prices of these assets back on an upward trajectory. Brent crude oil was trading more than 11% above levels at the end of trading on March 16 at the start of the day on Friday. A glance at the chart suggests that technically quotations remain within the uptrend that began back in December. This is in line with the supposed progress in de-escalation between Russia and Ukraine. In our view, it is already worth noting that fears over energy supplies are no longer panic-driven but more constructive, lengthening the forecast horizon.
GOLD – Potential Bullish Reversal!

Can Disinflation Support A Decline Of Price Of Gold?

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 18.03.2022 15:13
  Inflation continues to rise but may soon reach its peak. After that, its fate will be sealed: a gradual decline. Does the same await gold?If you like inviting people over, you’ve probably figured out that some guests just don’t want to leave, even when you’re showing subtle signs of fatigue. They don’t seem to care and keep telling you the same not-so-funny jokes. Even in the hall, they talk lively and tell stories for long minutes because they remembered something very important. Inflation is like that kind of guest – still sitting in your living room, even after you turned off the music and went to wash the dishes, yawning loudly. Indeed, high inflation simply does not want to leave. Actually, it’s gaining momentum. As the chart below shows, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 6.0% over the past 12 months, speeding up from 5.5% in the previous month. Meanwhile, the overall CPI annual rate accelerated from 7.1% in December to 7.5% in January. It’s been the largest 12-month increase since the period ending February 1982. However, at the time, Paul Volcker raised interest rates to double digits and inflation was easing. Today, inflation continues to rise, but the Fed is only starting its tightening cycle. The Fed’s strategy to deal with inflation is presented in the meme below. What is important here is that the recent surge in inflation is broad-based, with virtually all index components showing increases over the past 12 months. The share of items with price rises of over 2% increased from less than 60% before the pandemic to just under 90% in January 2022. As the chart below shows, the index for shelter is constantly rising and – given the recent spike in “asking rents” – is likely to continue its upward move for some time, adding to the overall CPI. What’s more, the Producer Price Index is still red-hot, which suggests that more inflation is in the pipeline, as companies will likely pass on the increased costs to consumers. So, will inflation peak anytime soon or will it become embedded? There are voices that – given the huge monetary expansion conducted in response to the epidemic – high inflation will be with us for the next two or three years, especially when inflationary expectations have risen noticeably. I totally agree that high inflation won’t go away this year. Please just take a look at the chart below, which shows that the pandemic brought huge jumps in the ratio of broad money to GDP. This ratio has increased by 23%, from Q1 2020 to Q4 2021, while the CPI has risen only 7.7% in the same period. It suggests that the CPI has room for a further increase. What’s more, the pace of growth in money supply is still far above the pre-pandemic level, as the chart below shows. To curb inflation, the Fed would have to more decisively turn off the tap with liquidity and hike the federal funds rate more aggressively. However, as shown in the chart above, money supply growth peaked in February 2021. Thus, after a certain lag, the inflation rate should also reach a certain height. It usually takes about a year or a year and a half for any excess money to show up as inflation, so the peak could arrive within a few months, especially since some of the supply disruptions should start to ease in the near future. What does this intrusive inflation imply for the precious metals market? Well, the elevated inflationary pressure should be supportive of gold prices. However, I’m afraid that when disinflation starts, the yellow metal could suffer. The decline in inflation rates implies weaker demand for gold as an inflation hedge and also higher real interest rates. The key question is, of course, what exactly will be the path of inflation. Will it normalize quickly or gradually, or even stay at a high plateau after reaching a peak? I don’t expect a sharp disinflation, so gold may not enter a 1980-like bear market. Another question of the hour is whether inflation will turn into stagflation. So far, the economy is growing, so there is no stagnation. However, growth is likely to slow down, and I wouldn’t be surprised by seeing some recessionary trends in 2023-2024. Inflation should still be elevated then, creating a perfect environment for the yellow metal. Hence, the inflationary genie is out of the bottle and it could be difficult to push it back, even if inflation peaks in the near future. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
China’s economic outlook for the second half of 2022

"Boring" Bitcoin (BTC) And Gaining S&P 500 (SPX). Crude Oil Price Chart Shows A Green Candle At The Right Hand Side,

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 18.03.2022 15:50
S&P 500 extended gains, and the risk appetite in bonds carried over into value rising faster than tech. Given the TLT downswing though, it‘s all but rainbows and unicorns ahead today. Not only that quad witching would bring high volume and chop, VIX itself doesn‘t look to slide smoothly below 25 today. Friday‘s ride would be thus rocky, and affected by momentum stalling in both tech and value. Real assets though can and will enjoy the deserved return into the spotlight. With much of the preceding downswing being based on deescalation hopes (that aren‘t materializing, still), the unfolding upswing in copper, oil and precious metals (no, they aren‘t to be spooked by the tough Fed tightening talk) would happen at a more measured pace than had been the case recently. Pay attention to the biting inflation, surrounding blame games hinting at no genuine respite – read through the rich captions of today‘s chart analyses, and think about reliable stores of real value. And of course, enjoy the open profits. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 looks likely to consolidate as the 4,400 – 4,450 zone would be tough to overcome, and such a position relative to both the moving averages shown, has historically stopped quite a few steep recoveries off very negative sentiment readings. Credit Markets HYG is likely to slow down here, as in really stall and face headwinds. The run had been respectable, and much of the easy gains happened already yesterday. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals upswing did indeed return – and the miners performance doesn‘t hint at a swift return of the bears, to put it mildly. The path to $1950s is open. Crude Oil Crude oil bottom was indeed in, and the price can keep recovering towards $110s and beyond. No, the economy isn‘t crashing yet, monetary policy isn‘t forcing that outcome, and the drawing of petroleum reserves is a telltale sign of upside price pressures mounting. It‘ll be an interesting April, mark my words. Copper Copper is duly rebounding, and not at all overheated. The move is also in line with other base metals. My yesterday‘s target of $4.70 has already been reached – I‘m looking for a measured pace of gains to continue. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are taking a small break, highlighting the perils of today. The boat won‘t be rocked too much. Summary S&P 500 bulls made the easy gains already yesterday, and today‘s session is going to be volatile, even treacherous in establishing a clear and lasting direction (i.e. choppy), and the headwinds would be out there in the plain open. These would come from bonds not continuing in the risk-on turn convincingly rather than commodities and metals surging head over heels. Both tech and value would feel the heat as VIX would show signs of waking up (to some degree). Today‘s session won‘t change the big picture dynamics of late, and I invite you to read more in-depth commentary within the individual market sections of today‘s full analysis. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
Sanctions On Russia Can Help MXNUSD As Mexican Crude Oil Might Be Imported By The USA

Sanctions On Russia Can Help MXNUSD As Mexican Crude Oil Might Be Imported By The USA

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 18.03.2022 15:55
The Mexican dollar has added more than 4% over the last nine days against the US dollar. The upward momentum in this rally is followed by a brief correction but without any noticeable pullback. At first glance, this rally does not seem logical, as oil is cheap for most of this time, hurting oil-exporting Mexico. Nevertheless, in the short term, the MXN has been steadily gaining the following signs of a recovery in demand for risky assets in global markets. Mexico, like the US, finds itself far away from the military conflict in eastern Europe, so the impact on its economy will be much more indirect. Moreover, in the medium term, Mexico will also benefit from the US' rejection of oil from Russia. The states need heavier oil than their own WTI. The cocktail needed for refineries used to be made from Venezuelan oil, which was then replaced by Russian crude. Now the replacements will be Canadian and Mexican, which should benefit production levels and support MXN's strength through higher export revenues. In the coming days, the USDMXN will head for another test of 20.0. Below this level, the pair could not sustainably consolidate in 2021. If this situation proves sustainable, the Bank of Mexico will have more room to fight inflation through policy tightening without fear of strangling the economy too much. If so, the USDMXN may only be in the middle of its strengthening against the dollar, which could last for several quarters.
Should Drivers Worry About Fuel Prices Again? Will Crude Oil Price Go Up!?

Even If Crude Oil Price (WTI) Pauses On The Levels Over $100, The Further Increase May Come As A Non-Stable Geopolitical Situation Persists

FXStreet News FXStreet News 18.03.2022 16:02
WTI has stabilised in a thin $102-$106ish range and at current levels in the $103.00s trades broadly flat. WTI has found a decent floor above $100 again after a rollercoaster week as traders mull Russia supply risk. More evidence of OPEC+ undershooting its output quotas (in February) are contributing to fears of a near-term shortage. Front-month WTI futures have stabilised in a $102-$106ish per barrel range on Friday amid a comparatively quiet end to what has been a rollercoaster week. Prices were sent crashing as low as the $93.00s from near $110 amid China lockdown fears as the country’s zero-Covid approach struggles to contain Omicron, but has since regained a solid footing back above $100 amid continued worries about crude oil shortages as a result of Western sanctions on the Russian economy. Momentum towards a new nuclear deal between major Western powers and Iran also seems to have waned somewhat. At current levels in the $103.00s, WTI is trading flat on the day but remains on course to post an on-the-week drop of more than $5.0, which would mark a second successive weekly loss. While prices do remain substantially lower versus last week’s highs in the $130 area, WTI currently still trades with a gain of more than $11.00 since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In the absence of an announcement of a Russo-Ukrainian peace deal, which still appears to be some way off, analysts suspect risks remain tilted to the upside for oil. According to a Reuters report on Friday, OPEC+ continued to undershoot its output quota in February and by an even larger margin than in January. Meanwhile, the major OPEC nations with space capacity (Saudi Arabia and the UAE) haven’t shown signs this week of caving to pressure from major oil importers (like the US) to increase output at a faster rate, despite the fact that, according to the International Energy Agency, oil markets could lose as much as 3M barrels per day in supply from Russia from April. All signs point to WTI continuing to trade at elevated levels for the foreseeable future as supply adjusts higher from non-Russian sources, which will take time.
Natural Gas Hits Its Final Target. The Luck of St. Patrick’s Day?

Natural Gas Hits Its Final Target. The Luck of St. Patrick’s Day?

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 18.03.2022 17:14
  St. Patrick’s Day is historically considered among the best trading days. Apparently, judging by the results, it may have brought some luck to natural gas. If you are interested in looking at the stats, an article by Market Watch summed them up. The second target hit – BOOM! Yesterday, on St. Patrick's Day, the opportunity to bank the extra profits from my recent Nat-Gas trade projections (provided on March 2) finally arrived. That trade plan has provided traders with multiple bounces to trade the NYMEX Natural Gas Futures (April contract) in various ways, always depending on each one’s personal risk profile. To get some more explanatory details on understanding the different trading ways this fly map (trading plan) could offer, I invite you to read my previous article (from March 11). To quickly sum it up, the various trade opportunities that could be played were as follows (with the following captures taken on March 11): The first possibility is swing trading, with the trailing stop method explained in my famous risk management article. Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, hourly chart) The second option consisted of scalping the rebounds with fixed targets (active or experienced traders). I named this method “riding the tails” (or the shadows). Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, 4H chart) The third way is position trading – a more passive trading style (and usually more rewarding). Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) The chart below shows a good overall view of NYMEX Natural Gas hitting our final target, $4.860: Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, 4H chart) As you can see, the market has provided us with multiple entries into the same support zone (highlighted by the yellow band) – even after hitting the first target, you may have noticed that I maintained the entry conditions in place – after the suggestion to drag the stop up just below the new swing low ($4.450). The market, still in a bull run, got very close to that point on March 15 by making a new swing low at $4.459 (just about 10 ticks above it). Before that, it firmly rebounded once more (allowing a new/additional entry) and then extended its gains further away while consecutively hitting target 1 ($4.745) again. After that, it finally hit target 2 ($4.860)! That’s all folks for today. It is time to succesfully close this trade. Have a great weekend! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
🔥 SHIBA Volatile Move Ahead: Triangle Analysis

(SHIB) Shiba Inu Price Has Lost The Gains From The Recent Past

FXStreet News FXStreet News 18.03.2022 16:02
Shiba Inu price action falls back to Monday’s opening levels, making it a week of hardly any gains or losses. SHIB price action looks a bit bearish as another broader support test is set to kick in later today. SHIB price is still set to tank to $0.00001500 as bearish momentum continues. Shiba Inu (SHIB) price action retook a step back and pared almost all the gains from Wednesday’s rally. Investors are swinging back into bearish mode as tail risks emerge and are put at the top of the agenda going into the weekend. Conflicting rumours and contrary remarks from what is going on in Ukraine are keeping investors puzzled and refraining them from continuing to open risk-on bets. Shiba Inu price sees puzzled investors turning their back on crypto Shiba Inu price action is set to erase its gains from earlier this week. SHIB price rose after the news that peace talks were making good progress. Yet this all looked to be thrown in the bin overnight as several headlines came out about Russiabeing not at all optimistic, and the US even putting the threat of nuclear weapons back on the table, as it sees Russia possibly trying to squeeze out a peace agreement that meets all of its demands but none of Ukraine’s. Shiba Ina and other cryptocurrencies saw bulls repeating the same mistake as last week when they got squeezed out by the weekend. SHIB price action is again dropping back to the baseline of a longer term triangle with the green trend line as its base. Multiple tests up until now have been held, but with the meeting between Biden and Xi this evening, it looks clear that the US wants to get a clear answer from China as to whether it is with the US against Russia, or with Russia – offering no middle ground. The tail risk from this meeting going into the weekend could trigger a break at $0.00002111 and see a drop towards $0.00001708, the low of January, which could well overshoot towards $0.00001500. SHIB/USD daily chart Of course, a truce or ceasefire would help turn the current sentiment around. If that were to happen expect a big pop in price action, capped at a max 13% gain, to where the red descending trend line and side of the triangle intersect with the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) . Yet at the moment this seems an impossible hurdle to break through seeing the weakness of bulls currently at hand.
Will Fuel Prices Shock Again? Crude Oil Price Almost Hit $120! Will EV Become More Popular Shortly?

Major Forex Pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EURGBP Affected By Interest Rates Decisions – The Week On Markets By FXMAG.COM

Mikołaj Marcinowski Mikołaj Marcinowski 18.03.2022 19:17
Fed raised interest rate by 25bps so did Bank of England. Data shows that these events haven’t hit major Forex pairs so hard so let’s verify the theory. EUR/USD – A ca. 1.2% Gain The chart shows the week began without significant fluctuations until the Fed decision on March 16th. Immediately after the announcement of the key monetary policy indicator a huge declined stopped the strengthening Euro. The pair even neared the 2% gain level, but during the week has declined again slowly ending it near +1.2%. GBP/USD – Two announcements correlation The week hadn’t began too positively for British pound, but the following days had put GBP back on track to a ca. 1% gain after significant declines shortly after Fed and BoE decisions on accordingly Wednesday and Thursday. EUR/GBP – A ca. 1% Increased Corrected Naturally Fed’s announcement didn’t affect the single currency and British bound heavily, but the Bank of England’s fuelled EUR/GBP almost 1% jump which had been gradually corrected in the following days leaving the pair almost unchanged compared to the 14th March. USD/PLN – exotic pair with interesting outlook There’s no doubt PLN has strengthened throughout the week even if Fed announced the raise of interest rate. The stronger outlook of PLN is surely caused by the previous week’s tightening of monetary policy. EUR/PLN – PLN gained ca. 1.5% Global factors makes the pais with PLN the most interesting ones as another shows a significant loss of Euro To Polish zloty. The following week might bring next tempting fluctuations so let’s keep an eye on this pair.
Soft Commodities Speculator’s Soybean Meal bullish bets rise for 7th week to 197-week high

Soft Commodities Speculator’s Soybean Meal bullish bets rise for 7th week to 197-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 19.03.2022 15:48
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT soft commodities data is the continued surge in Soybean Meal futures bets. The speculative net position in the Soybean Meal futures has gained for seven consecutive weeks with a total rise of +51,237 contracts over that time-frame. This has pushed the current net standing to over +130,000 net contracts and to the most bullish level in the past one hundred and ninety-seven weeks, dating all the way back to June 5th of 2018. The positive speculator sentiment has now boosted the speculator strength index to the top of its range with a 100 percent score and a bullish-extreme reading (strength index is current speculator standing compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme). The soft commodities that saw higher bets this week were Corn (9,173 contracts), Sugar (5,504 contracts), Soybeans (1,022 contracts), Soybean Oil (6,245 contracts), Soybean Meal (8,651 contracts), Live Cattle (4,689 contracts) and Cocoa (2,929 contracts). The soft commodities that saw lower bets this week were Coffee (-6,613 contracts), Lean Hogs (-3,035 contracts), Cotton (-3,510 contracts) and Wheat (-1,695 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-15-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,850,794 0 341,815 4 -382,602 90 40,787 72 Gold 617,605 51 261,788 71 -297,441 27 35,653 65 Silver 159,571 25 51,554 74 -67,579 33 16,025 36 Copper 183,170 14 19,030 56 -26,717 41 7,687 70 Palladium 6,992 2 -1,009 16 220 78 789 91 Platinum 67,727 35 17,932 28 -25,692 72 7,760 70 Natural Gas 1,082,746 0 -146,560 35 105,856 64 40,704 82 Brent 192,679 34 -18,961 79 17,343 22 1,618 31 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 745,345 32 217,599 84 -193,958 20 -23,641 31 Corn 1,504,159 22 507,206 95 -468,758 5 -38,448 21 Coffee 224,693 3 45,500 82 -48,838 22 3,338 11 Sugar 818,877 1 156,580 69 -188,036 33 31,456 47 Wheat 339,904 2 10,930 56 -5,252 36 -5,678 91   CORN Futures: The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 507,206 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,173 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 498,033 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 38.0 44.8 8.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.3 76.0 11.3 – Net Position: 507,206 -468,758 -38,448 – Gross Longs: 571,419 673,921 132,114 – Gross Shorts: 64,213 1,142,679 170,562 – Long to Short Ratio: 8.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.8 5.2 20.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.6 -8.7 5.2   SUGAR Futures: The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 156,580 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,504 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 151,076 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent. SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.6 51.5 10.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.5 74.5 6.9 – Net Position: 156,580 -188,036 31,456 – Gross Longs: 209,848 422,056 87,859 – Gross Shorts: 53,268 610,092 56,403 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.9 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.8 32.5 46.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.9 -13.4 9.3   COFFEE Futures: The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 45,500 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,613 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,113 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent. COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.8 51.9 4.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.6 73.6 3.1 – Net Position: 45,500 -48,838 3,338 – Gross Longs: 58,040 116,559 10,359 – Gross Shorts: 12,540 165,397 7,021 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 81.7 21.6 11.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -11.5 13.0 -4.5   SOYBEANS Futures: The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 217,599 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,022 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 216,577 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.7 44.1 6.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.5 70.1 10.1 – Net Position: 217,599 -193,958 -23,641 – Gross Longs: 265,949 328,524 51,470 – Gross Shorts: 48,350 522,482 75,111 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 84.1 20.2 31.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.0 -9.0 24.0   SOYBEAN OIL Futures: The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 97,927 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,245 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 91,682 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent. SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.0 49.0 9.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.7 81.7 5.2 – Net Position: 97,927 -113,307 15,380 – Gross Longs: 114,193 169,475 33,229 – Gross Shorts: 16,266 282,782 17,849 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.7 23.1 70.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.7 -13.4 11.9   SOYBEAN MEAL Futures: The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 130,255 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,651 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 121,604 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent. SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.7 42.2 12.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 2.6 83.9 4.8 – Net Position: 130,255 -159,488 29,233 – Gross Longs: 140,002 161,042 47,423 – Gross Shorts: 9,747 320,530 18,190 – Long to Short Ratio: 14.4 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 87.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 17.5 -16.9 4.7   LIVE CATTLE Futures: The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 44,256 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,689 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,567 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent. LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.7 42.5 9.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 20.6 53.7 12.8 – Net Position: 44,256 -35,043 -9,213 – Gross Longs: 108,642 132,992 30,710 – Gross Shorts: 64,386 168,035 39,923 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 18.7 79.1 64.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -14.3 18.6 -3.0   LEAN HOGS Futures: The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 48,490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,035 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,525 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent. LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.9 35.7 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.5 52.9 12.5 – Net Position: 48,490 -40,705 -7,785 – Gross Longs: 87,555 84,755 21,909 – Gross Shorts: 39,065 125,460 29,694 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.6 45.4 54.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -12.0 7.6 23.1   COTTON Futures: The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 83,321 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,510 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 86,831 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent. COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.6 40.4 7.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.8 82.9 3.3 – Net Position: 83,321 -93,450 10,129 – Gross Longs: 96,108 89,048 17,343 – Gross Shorts: 12,787 182,498 7,214 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.5 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 75.8 23.4 76.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.0 10.3 -12.3   COCOA Futures: The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 32,691 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,929 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,762 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent. COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.9 49.1 6.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.3 66.3 3.3 – Net Position: 32,691 -41,335 8,644 – Gross Longs: 71,870 117,753 16,620 – Gross Shorts: 39,179 159,088 7,976 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.8 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.1 42.0 83.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.5 -8.9 49.2   WHEAT Futures: The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 10,930 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,695 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,625 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent. WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.5 43.4 9.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.3 44.9 10.7 – Net Position: 10,930 -5,252 -5,678 – Gross Longs: 110,614 147,417 30,713 – Gross Shorts: 99,684 152,669 36,391 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.3 35.7 91.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.0 -10.1 -1.3   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
WTI Crude Oil Speculator bullish bets slide lower 7th time in 8 weeks

WTI Crude Oil Speculator bullish bets slide lower 7th time in 8 weeks

Invest Macro Invest Macro 19.03.2022 15:49
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT energy data is the pullback in the WTI Crude Oil futures bets. The speculative net position in the WTI Crude Oil futures dropped this week for a second consecutive week and has fallen in seven out of the past eight weeks. The spec crude position has declined by a total of -43,966 contracts over the past eight weeks and speculator bets are now at a three-week low. The speculator strength index, current speculator standing compared to past three years where above 80 percent is bullish extreme and below 20 percent is bearish extreme, shows that speculator bets are extremely bearish right now compared to the past with a strength score of just 3.5 percent. The energy market with higher speculator bets was just the Bloomberg Commodity Index (3,789 contracts). The energy markets with lower speculator bets were WTI Crude Oil (-19,850 contracts), Brent Crude Oil (-7,249 contracts), Natural Gas (-8,147 contracts), Heating Oil (-9,228 contracts) and the Gasoline (-3,298 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-15-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,850,794 0 341,815 4 -382,602 90 40,787 72 Gold 617,605 51 261,788 71 -297,441 27 35,653 65 Silver 159,571 25 51,554 74 -67,579 33 16,025 36 Copper 183,170 14 19,030 56 -26,717 41 7,687 70 Palladium 6,992 2 -1,009 16 220 78 789 91 Platinum 67,727 35 17,932 28 -25,692 72 7,760 70 Natural Gas 1,082,746 0 -146,560 35 105,856 64 40,704 82 Brent 192,679 34 -18,961 79 17,343 22 1,618 31 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 745,345 32 217,599 84 -193,958 20 -23,641 31 Corn 1,504,159 22 507,206 95 -468,758 5 -38,448 21 Coffee 224,693 3 45,500 82 -48,838 22 3,338 11 Sugar 818,877 1 156,580 69 -188,036 33 31,456 47 Wheat 339,904 2 10,930 56 -5,252 36 -5,678 91   WTI Crude Oil Futures: The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 341,815 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -19,850 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 361,665 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.0 37.8 4.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.6 58.5 2.3 – Net Position: 341,815 -382,602 40,787 – Gross Longs: 444,601 700,410 83,830 – Gross Shorts: 102,786 1,083,012 43,043 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.5 90.4 72.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.6 12.8 -7.0   Brent Crude Oil Futures: The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -18,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,249 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,712 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.0 41.3 4.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.8 32.3 3.2 – Net Position: -18,961 17,343 1,618 – Gross Longs: 42,390 79,663 7,742 – Gross Shorts: 61,351 62,320 6,124 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 79.4 22.2 31.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.1 2.7 -21.2   Natural Gas Futures: The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -146,560 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,147 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -138,413 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent. Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.2 43.3 5.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 35.7 33.5 2.0 – Net Position: -146,560 105,856 40,704 – Gross Longs: 240,482 468,705 62,435 – Gross Shorts: 387,042 362,849 21,731 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 2.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 34.6 64.3 82.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.0 4.9 27.7   Gasoline Blendstock Futures: The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 43,602 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,298 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,900 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.5 52.5 7.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.4 69.5 5.4 – Net Position: 43,602 -48,914 5,312 – Gross Longs: 76,383 151,239 20,732 – Gross Shorts: 32,781 200,153 15,420 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 14.5 88.1 43.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.1 27.7 -35.4   #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures: The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 6,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,683 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.0 50.8 14.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.1 60.1 6.9 – Net Position: 6,455 -32,434 25,979 – Gross Longs: 59,340 177,626 50,210 – Gross Shorts: 52,885 210,060 24,231 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.9 36.7 88.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -10.3 23.6   Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures: The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -10,780 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,569 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent. Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 48.9 18.5 1.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 67.5 1.2 0.1 – Net Position: -10,780 9,985 795 – Gross Longs: 28,304 10,697 859 – Gross Shorts: 39,084 712 64 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 15.0 to 1 13.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 66.2 31.7 47.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.7 -16.4 4.8   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Gold Speculators reduce bullish bets after surge to 61-week high

Gold Speculators reduce bullish bets after surge to 61-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 19.03.2022 15:50
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT metals data is this week’s pullback in the Gold futures bets. The speculative net position in the Gold futures retreated this week after surging higher and gaining by a total of +102,246 net contracts over the previous five weeks. The recent boost in the speculator sentiment had pushed the Gold bullish position to its highest level in the previous sixty-one weeks. This week saw a modest pullback from the highs of last week but keeps the total Gold speculator sentiment in a strong bullish position above the +250,000 net contract level for a third consecutive week. Gold prices, meanwhile, have retreated from their highs of the past couple weeks and sit right at a support line at the $1920 spot price level currently which sets up an interesting situation going forward between the bulls and bears. Joining Gold (-12,600 contracts) in lower speculator bets this week were Silver (-743 contracts), Copper (-12,789 contracts), Platinum (-7,901 contracts) and Palladium (-737 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-15-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,850,794 0 341,815 4 -382,602 90 40,787 72 Gold 617,605 51 261,788 71 -297,441 27 35,653 65 Silver 159,571 25 51,554 74 -67,579 33 16,025 36 Copper 183,170 14 19,030 56 -26,717 41 7,687 70 Palladium 6,992 2 -1,009 16 220 78 789 91 Platinum 67,727 35 17,932 28 -25,692 72 7,760 70 Natural Gas 1,082,746 0 -146,560 35 105,856 64 40,704 82 Brent 192,679 34 -18,961 79 17,343 22 1,618 31 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 745,345 32 217,599 84 -193,958 20 -23,641 31 Corn 1,504,159 22 507,206 95 -468,758 5 -38,448 21 Coffee 224,693 3 45,500 82 -48,838 22 3,338 11 Sugar 818,877 1 156,580 69 -188,036 33 31,456 47 Wheat 339,904 2 10,930 56 -5,252 36 -5,678 91   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 261,788 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -12,600 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 274,388 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 56.1 24.5 8.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.8 72.6 3.0 – Net Position: 261,788 -297,441 35,653 – Gross Longs: 346,731 151,045 54,330 – Gross Shorts: 84,943 448,486 18,677 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.1 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 71.0 26.9 65.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 28.3 -29.3 18.3   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 51,554 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -743 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,297 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 46.4 27.8 16.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.1 70.1 6.4 – Net Position: 51,554 -67,579 16,025 – Gross Longs: 74,044 44,324 26,270 – Gross Shorts: 22,490 111,903 10,245 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.3 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 73.8 32.6 36.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 29.4 -31.7 16.8   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 19,030 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,819 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 40.0 42.0 9.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.6 56.6 5.6 – Net Position: 19,030 -26,717 7,687 – Gross Longs: 73,338 76,948 17,878 – Gross Shorts: 54,308 103,665 10,191 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.1 41.1 69.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.1 -3.9 16.1   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 17,932 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,901 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,833 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 50.0 29.7 15.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.5 67.6 3.8 – Net Position: 17,932 -25,692 7,760 – Gross Longs: 33,833 20,085 10,326 – Gross Shorts: 15,901 45,777 2,566 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.1 to 1 0.4 to 1 4.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.7 72.3 70.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.9 -8.5 35.7   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,009 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -737 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -272 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.8 47.7 21.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 44.3 44.5 9.8 – Net Position: -1,009 220 789 – Gross Longs: 2,085 3,334 1,473 – Gross Shorts: 3,094 3,114 684 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 15.8 77.7 91.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.1 -4.3 44.9   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Bonds Speculators continue to raise Eurodollar bearish bets to 170-week high

Bonds Speculators continue to raise Eurodollar bearish bets to 170-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 19.03.2022 15:51
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT bonds data is the steady rise in the Eurodollar bearish bets. Eurodollar futures speculator bets fell for a second consecutive week and for the fourth time in the past five weeks. This has brought the current net position to the most bearish standing of the past one hundred and seventy weeks, dating back to December of 2018. The Eurodollar futures are the largest futures market as open interest in these contracts usually numbers over 10 million contracts (sometimes three times more than the second highest market) and are used to wager or hedge on short-term interest rates (3-month Libor). A declining Eurodollar futures contract shows a rise in (deposit) interest rates while a gaining Eurodollar futures contract shows the opposite. In times of financial upheaval or strong risk-off situations such as the Great Financial Crisis or the recent Covid Crisis, Eurodollar futures have seen strong trends higher and in times of normalization and rising interest rates, Eurodollar futures typically trend downward. The current path to normal interest rates (off the near-zero floor for the Fed Funds) is happening at the moment and the Eurodollar speculator positions are reflecting that with their multi-year lows. The bond markets with higher speculator bets this week were the 2-Year Bond (92,313 contracts), 10-Year Bond (56,723 contracts), Fed Funds (32,857 contracts), 5-Year (104,839 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (18,174 contracts). The bond markets with lower speculator bets this week were the Eurodollar (-143,781 contracts), Ultra 10-Year (-35,370 contracts) and the Long US Bond (-3,130 contracts). Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-15-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index Eurodollar 10,624,293 37 -2,528,477 0 2,952,797 100 -424,320 11 FedFunds 2,057,322 76 -105,281 27 120,855 75 -15,574 20 2-Year 2,155,448 15 -20,433 78 89,684 39 -69,251 14 Long T-Bond 1,118,301 35 44,238 99 -29,752 11 -14,486 41 10-Year 3,561,445 34 -320,997 23 512,812 86 -191,815 34 5-Year 3,796,317 37 -347,302 22 590,098 85 -242,796 14   3-Month Eurodollars Futures: The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,528,477 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -143,781 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,384,696 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.1 percent. 3-Month Eurodollars Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.0 76.6 3.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.8 48.8 7.6 – Net Position: -2,528,477 2,952,797 -424,320 – Gross Longs: 421,782 8,135,944 386,903 – Gross Shorts: 2,950,259 5,183,147 811,223 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 11.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.3 7.6 3.6   30-Day Federal Funds Futures: The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -105,281 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 32,857 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -138,138 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent. 30-Day Federal Funds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.4 78.3 1.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.5 72.4 2.2 – Net Position: -105,281 120,855 -15,574 – Gross Longs: 70,601 1,610,540 30,462 – Gross Shorts: 175,882 1,489,685 46,036 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.6 74.6 20.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.0 15.8 19.9   2-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -20,433 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 92,313 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -112,746 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.3 percent. 2-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.5 76.3 6.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.4 72.1 9.6 – Net Position: -20,433 89,684 -69,251 – Gross Longs: 312,101 1,644,077 138,269 – Gross Shorts: 332,534 1,554,393 207,520 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 78.1 39.4 14.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.7 7.8 14.3   5-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -347,302 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 104,839 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -452,141 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent. 5-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.8 82.3 6.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.0 66.8 13.0 – Net Position: -347,302 590,098 -242,796 – Gross Longs: 335,536 3,125,740 251,950 – Gross Shorts: 682,838 2,535,642 494,746 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 22.3 85.2 14.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -39.8 22.3 11.9   10-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -320,997 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 56,723 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -377,720 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent. 10-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.2 79.8 8.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.2 65.5 14.1 – Net Position: -320,997 512,812 -191,815 – Gross Longs: 293,043 2,843,812 311,433 – Gross Shorts: 614,040 2,331,000 503,248 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 22.6 86.0 34.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.1 -6.3 22.6   Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures: The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -69,750 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -35,370 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,380 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent. Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.5 79.7 8.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.9 64.5 18.8 – Net Position: -69,750 198,122 -128,372 – Gross Longs: 137,331 1,038,528 116,422 – Gross Shorts: 207,081 840,406 244,794 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 9.3 99.8 38.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -38.9 28.3 27.7   US Treasury Bonds Futures: The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 44,238 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,130 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,368 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent. US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.2 72.1 14.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.3 74.7 15.3 – Net Position: 44,238 -29,752 -14,486 – Gross Longs: 125,767 805,967 156,315 – Gross Shorts: 81,529 835,719 170,801 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 99.0 10.7 41.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 26.3 -27.8 5.1   Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures: The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -266,244 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 18,174 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -284,418 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent. Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.0 80.1 12.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.1 61.9 9.3 – Net Position: -266,244 228,742 37,502 – Gross Longs: 87,587 1,008,627 154,454 – Gross Shorts: 353,831 779,885 116,952 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.6 26.8 55.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 27.5 -39.2 9.0   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Large Forex Speculators boosted their bets of Commodity Currencies this week

Large Forex Speculators boosted their bets of Commodity Currencies this week

Invest Macro Invest Macro 19.03.2022 17:45
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the strong speculator sentiment for the commodity currencies in the currency futures contracts. The Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar all saw boosts in their bets that either pushed their bullish standings higher or sharply reduced their bearish levels this week. The Australian dollar saw the largest improvement with a huge net gain of over +33,000 contracts this week which marked the largest one-week increase in the past three hundred and sixty-five weeks, dating all the way back to March of 2015. This week’s gain dropped the AUD’s current bearish standing down to -44,856 contracts from approximately -78,000 contracts in the previous week. The New Zealand dollar contracts saw a one-week gain of +16,032 contracts which marked its largest one-week rise in the past one hundred and seventeen weeks (back to December of 2017). This rise brought the NZD speculator positions out of bearish territory for the first time in fourteen weeks to a very small bullish level of +3,653 contracts. Finally, the Canadian dollar contracts increased by a net position of +10,094 contracts this week after falling in four out of the previous five weeks. This climb in speculative bets brings the current CAD bullish standing to the best level of the past six weeks. Overall, the currency m