porsche

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Summary:  Volkswagen has just announced that its IPO of Porsche AG is fully subscribed by multiple times securing the public listing of Porsche which is set to be priced on 28 September with first day of trading on 29 September under the ticker symbol P911. Porsche is being valued around EUR 75bn in a public offering that will make it the fifth largest IPO in Europe's history. Porsche is strong car company with revenue up 8% in the first-half of 2022 and sporting an EBITDA margin of 24.5% This is high for the industry but still trailing its Italian rival Ferrari and here also lies the potential for future shareholders of Porsche, namely closing the valuation and operational gap to Ferrari. The maze of Porsche and Volkswagen In recent years luxury carmakers such as Ferrari and Aston Martin have been publicly listed with very different outcomes. Ferrari has been a spectacular success while Aston Martin is tethering on a bankruptcy which has happened many times before in history for this proud UK car brand. Volkswagen has recently announced that it plans to IPO the Porsche carmaker and brand and the IPO pricing is set for the 28 September with the first day of trading on 29 September. What is interesting about the IPO is the maze-like ownership structure with Volkswagen owning the Porsche brand and car manufacturing, but itself being owned by the Austrian Porsche-Piech family. The story of why we have ended up in this weird ownership structure started with the privatization of Volkswagen in 1960 in which laws were enacted that stated that any shareholder with more than 20% ownership would have veto over any resolution. The German government kept 20.1% and thus control over Volkswagen. In 2005, Porsche SE (the holding company of the Porsche family) began accumulating a stake in Volkswagen and by 2006 it controlled 25.1%. In October 2008, Porsche SE announced that it had acquired 42.6% with options for another 31.5% as it wanted to go to 75% in order to consolidate Volkswagen’s cash position on its balance sheet. With the Government still owning 20.1% short sellers scrambled to cover their shorts and Volkswagen’s stock price briefly went above €1,000 making it the most valuable company in the world. In the end Porsche SE ended up controlling 53.3% as of the latest shareholder figures. In 2011, Porsche and Volkswagen merged and Porsche AG was designated as a subsidiary of Volkswagen AG. See plot below for voting rights distribution of Volkswagen. The IPO details Under the IPO Prospectus it says that Porsche AG will split its share capital in two 455.5mn shares each in ordinary and preferred shares (a play on its iconic 911 car model) with the former share class providing voting rights. The share class that will be floated on the Frankfurt exchange with the ticker symbol P911 is the preferred which has no voting rights but entitled to a dividend of €0.01 per share more than the ordinary shares. The Volkswagen plans to sell 25% plus one share in Porsche AG to Porsche SE giving the holding family and the Porsche family blocking minority right. In addition, Volkswagen plans to sell 25% of preferred shares on the market with news today that the offering is already multiple times oversubscribed across the whole price range from €76.50 to €82.50 with Qatar Investment Authority, Norway’s Sovereign Wealth Fund, and T. Rowe Price have already committed themselves in the IPO. The indicated price range puts Porsche AG valuation at €75bn which is close to Volkswagen’s market value of €91.6bn. The public offering size of Porsche AG shares will potentially make it the fifth largest IPO in Europe’s history. Volkswagen is selling shares in Porsche AG to the public to accomplish two objectives. Reduce the valuation discount on Volkswagen shares from the cross-holdings and unlock more value from a pure luxury brand play (Porsche). In addition, the public offering raises capital for Volkswagen very capital intensive switch to being all electric vehicle over the next decade. Volkswagen is expected raise around €19.5bn from the public offering in which is promising to pay out around €9.6bn in a special dividend by early 2023. The fundamentals Porsche is a well-run company generating €33.1bn in revenue in 2011 with an operating profit of €5.3bn and EBITDA of €7.4bn translating into an EBITDA margin of 24.5% which is good but not on par with Ferrari’s 35.7% in 2021. It should be said that Ferrari is company that can extract even more in profits per car manufactured due to its higher brand status. With an estimated market value of €75bn and the EBITDA of €7.4bn in 2021 it translate into a multiple of 10.1x which is significantly lower than Ferrari’s multiple of 22.2 times market value to EBITDA suggesting Volkswagen and the Porsche family wants a successful IPO and are aware of the current market volatility. Porsche’s revenue grew 8% in the first-half of 2022 with strong cash flow generation of €3.9bn which is a strong result given the general weakness in the car industry, but still lower than Ferrari which has seen its revenue growing 17.3% y/y and 24.9% y/y in Q1 and Q2 respectively. The main question for potential shareholders in Porsche is whether the company can make a successful transition to become fully EV while preserving or even expanding margins. It is clear when you compare Porsche to Ferrari that there is room for improvement and a potential upside if Porsche can improve its operations and expand on its already strong brand. Volkswagen has promised that synergies will continue to exist between the Volkswagen group and Porsche, but for the future success of Porsche we believe the key is more autonomy. The risks One the absolute key risks to the Porsche stock is the growing cost-of-living crisis as soaring energy costs are reducing disposable incomes in Europe. The sector that is the most at risk from lower demand during this challenging period is the consumer discretionary sector in which the car industry sits. While Porsche is in the high-end of the car industry selling to the 1% of the income and wealth distribution this part of society could also significantly reduce its consumption during the ongoing energy crisis and inflationary period. Because Porsche buyers are wealthy individuals it is not unreasonable to speculate that falling equity and bond markets could severely impact sentiment among the 1% richest of the world. Another risk for Porsche is if the EUR stages a strong comeback as it would the value of international sales and reduce its competitiveness abroad. The war in Ukraine or new Covid outbreaks can impact supply chains and demand for Porsche cars.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/porsche-ipo-can-it-close-the-gap-to-its-italian-rival-ferrari-20092022

Dax 40 December futures momentum is clearly negative as we break the July low at 12380/360. Yesterday we made a high for the day only 35 ticks above first resistance at 12350/400 before prices collapsed as expected. We appear to have formed a 9 month descending triangle pattern & have broken the lower trend line. Yesterday we formed a bear flag so a break below 12000 is the next sell signal. FTSE 100 December futures held Monday's range so same levels apply for today but we are breaking lower over night. Remember when support is broken it usually acts as resistance & vice-versa. Update daily by 06:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Dax December broke support at 13100/13000 for a sell signal, then 3 month trend line support at 12700/650 for another sell signal & now the July low at 12380/360 for a new sell signal. Yesterday we made a high for the day just above first resistance at 12350/400. Then we crashed below 100 month MA support at 12200/150. As I warned you, the last 3 times this MA was tested, it did not hold, in 2009, 2011 & 2020. So now we have broken below 12000 (not a surprise!) & could drop quickly to 11700/700. Gains are likely to be limited of course in the bear trend with resistance at 12100/12200. Shorts need stops above 12300. FTSE December hit 500 day moving average support at 7020/7000 but we have 2 year 38.2% Fibonacci support & June low at 6950/6910. Longs need stops below the 500 week moving average at 6850. A break lower is a major medium term sell signal. Bulls need a break above minor resistance at 7080/7100. A break higher meets strong resistance at 7160/80. Shorts need stops above 7210.

Stock index contracts are falling today as consumer sentiment declines. This time it's consumers from Europe's largest economy, Germany, where a record of pessimism has been set. Sentiment in Germany vs. DAX quotes Germany's GfK consumer climate index fell to -42.5 in October 2022 from -36.8 the previous month, reaching a new record low. This is the fourth consecutive decline, which was worse than market forecasts had predicted. The latest reading highlighted growing concerns over rising inflation and high energy prices, as well as persistent fears of recession, with income expectations falling to a new record low (down 22.4 points to -67.7), according to data released by GfK Group. Economic expectations also fell 4.3 points to -21.9, reaching their lowest level since May 2009. Meanwhile, willingness to buy fell 2.8 points to -19.5, the lowest level since October 2008, marking the eighth consecutive month of declines. "The current very high inflation rate of almost eight percent is leading to large losses in real income among consumers, and thus a significant reduction in purchasing power," - Rolf Bürkl, GfK consumer expert, said. Source: Conotoxia MT5, DE40, H4 With sentiment weakening, but also with increasing chances of further interest rate hikes whether in the United States or the Eurozone, as well as a perceived energy crisis looming this winter, the German DAX index's stock price has set new local lows. At 10:19 GMT+3, the DE40 was down 1.15 percent and at its lowest level since November 2020. That's when the markets were hit by the autumn wave of the covid outbreak, and moments later a new upward wave followed with news of a successful vaccine. Then the bottom was established in the 11500 point area, and it seems that it could be a potential support for DE40. London Stock Exchange quotes It is impossible not to mention the UK stock market, which seemed to defend itself from declines for a long time. Now, however, the FTSE100 index, too, may be heading south. The UK100 instrument on the Conotoxia MT5 platform is down 1 percent to 6898 points as of 10:23 GMT+3. This week, Britain's main index hit its lowest level since March 2022. Source: Conotoxia MT5, UK100, W1 The London Stock Exchange appears to be under pressure from lingering concerns about the country's economic outlook, exacerbated by a lack of commitment to fiscal discipline. The budget plan of the UK's new finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng, which includes historic tax cuts and a massive increase in debt, has been met with strong opposition from the International Monetary Fund and the Moody's rating agency. If it is implemented, it is possible that the UK could experience a rating cut. Did you know that CFDs allow you to trade on both falling and rising prices? Derivatives make it possible to open buy and sell positions and thus trade on both rising and falling quotes. At Conotoxia, you can choose from CFDs and DMA CFDs on more than 4,000 shares of companies listed on stock exchanges from all over the world. To find a CFD or DMA CFD on a stock, all you need to do is follow 4 simple steps: To access Trading Universe - a state-of-the-art hub of financial, information, investment and social products and services with a single Smart account, register here. Click "Platforms" in the "Invest&Forex" section.Choose one of the accounts: demo or live On the MT5 platform, search for the CFD action you are looking for and drag it into the chart window. Use the one-click trading option or open a new order with the right mouse button. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Stock market news: Worse consumer sentiment and poor stock market sentiment (conotoxia.com)

The Bank of England (BoE) jumped in the UK’s shattered sovereign market to buy long-term UK bonds yesterday, because apparently, they have been warned that collateral calls on Wednesday afternoon could force investors to further dump their UK sovereign holdings. And the UK could no longer afford another heavy selloff wave on its sovereigns. Will the enthusiasm last?  The British 10-year yield fell 10% yesterday, and the pound jumped past the 1.08 mark against the US dollar and consolidated below 0.90 against the euro. The FTSE recovered early losses and closed the session 0.30% higher, gold recovered to $1662 an ounce, American crude rallied past the $80 per barrel, also boosted by the Hurricane Ian’s negative impact on supply. Around 11% of the Gulf of Mexico production was halted due to the storm.The S&P500 gained almost 2% yesterday to above 3700 level, while Nasdaq jumped more than 2%. Will the enthusiasm last? Not so sure. Yesterday’s price action was a sugar rush, triggered by the BoE intervention. Enthusiasm will likely fall as the level of blood sugar falls across the financial markets. Amazon is on the rise Amazon jumped 3% as investors liked the new devices at Wednesday’s annual device event, and Apple slipped on announcement that it will, finally, not produce more iPhones compared to last years.In Europe, all eyes are on Porsche that starts flying with its own wings today! Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:27 BoE finally jumps in 3:24 BoE intervention boosts risk appetite, but for how long? 5:30 Amazon convinces, Apple disappoints 8:54 Porsche is now up for grab! Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #BoE #intervention #UK #gilt #GBP #Hurricane #Ian #crude #oil #energy #crisis #XAU #FTSE #sovereign #bonds #rally #Apple #Amazon #Porsche #IPO #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Dax and FTSE 100 Dax 40 December futures shorts at resistance at 12900/950 offered a little profit on the slide to 12804, but we did not reach support at 12780/740. FTSE 100 December bouncing around with no clear direction. Today's Analysis. Dax December has now bounced back above resistance at 12900/950 & could target 13200/250. We should struggle to beat this level here today but shorts are probably too risky. If we continue higher look for 13370/380. Read next: NASDAQ Futures Down More Than 1.5%, Xi Jinping Pushes Out Youth League Members From Politburo, Spotify Users Up 20% YoY| FXMAG.COM Strong support at 12950/900. Longs need stops below 12850. FTSE December bounces back to resistance at 7000/7020. A break above this week's high at 7054 targets strong resistance at 7110/20. First support at 6900/6880.

FTSE 100 December reversed from the 7190/7200 targeting minor support at 7170/50 then strong support at 7110/7090 with a low for the day exactly here. Longs need stops below 7070. Today's Analysis. Dax December broke the 3 week rising trend line, from the October recovery - a counter trend move. So it is likely that the 2022 bear trend has resumed. However best support at 13150/100 today. Holding here allows a recovery to first resistance at 13250/350. Shorts need stops above 13400. First support at 13150/100 but longs need stops below 13050. A break lower targets second 12950/900. A break below 12850 is a medium term sell signal & confirms the resumption of the bear trend. A weekly close below tomorrow night is further confirmation of course. FTSE December a low for the day exactly at strong support at 7110/7090. Longs need stops below 7070. A break lower is a sell signal targeting 7030/20 then 6970/60. Longs at strong support at 7110/7090 can target 7180/90.

Crypto Industry News: The German manufacturer has prepared the NFT collection, which is to consist of over 7,000 items tokens. This one will be inspired by the classic model - the Porsche 911. The tokens will hit the market in January 2023. The initiative is led by a designer and 3D artist from Hamburg, Patrick Vogel. We know that every NFT buyer will be able to personalize their token. It is about the so-called "route" that will include "lifestyle, performance and heritage". Each such "route" is intended to reflect individual "aspects of Porsche's premium brand identity". Sounds mysterious, but that's not all. The data collected in this way will be needed by Vogel, who is then to prepare NFT as a special 3D resource based on Unreal Engine 5. In addition to personalizing their NFTs, buyers will also be able to participate in brand experiences in the virtual and real world. Porsche, however, does not intend to stop at NFT. The company is also working on integrating blockchain technology with its systems. Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum cryptocurrency has made the recent local high at the level of $1,308 into extremely overbought conditions. The intraday technical resistance is located at $1,1288, but the next target for bulls is seen at $1,343. The upside might be limited due to the fact, that the level of $1,300 is the upper channel line, so a pull-back towards support is welcome. The momentum is strong and positive on the H4 time frame chart and is coming off the overbought levels. Please notice the fact, that Ethereum lost more than 37% in November alone as the crypto winter continues and any up move should be considered as the upward correction during the long-term down trend. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,253 WR2 - $1,213 WR1 - $1,190 Weekly Pivot - $1,173 WS1 - $1,150 WS2 - $1,133 WS3 - $1,093 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new yearly low was established at $1,074. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-12-03 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/303493

Not only does gas price declines in Europe, but also in the USA, but we could say it's not in favour of indices. Euro seems to be in an unclear situation and on the cryptomarket, Porsche is set to launch its NFT collection. FXMAG.COM team once again reaches out to FxPro's Alex Kuptsikevich to have a detailed look at the mentioned threads. Natural Gas (NATGAS) plunges, have markets got calmer at last? It makes sense to estimate that lower energy prices would be good for markets as it mitigates inflation risks while reviving economic growth - the best combination for markets. However, US indices rallied throughout October and November, while the US gas price first dipped from $6.9 to $5.5 by the end of October but then soared to $8, along with increased traction in risky assets by the end of November in the last two months. Over the past two weeks, the gas has returned to $5.5. Half of that time, stocks were rising, and half of that time, they were declining. Germany's DAX40 is up 22% from its lows at the start of October and has retreated 1.8% from its six-month high since early December. The rise has occurred despite the euro's strengthening, and the decline comes along with the fall in oil and gas prices. Read next: To Simplify The Organization, Pepsico Will Lay Off Thousands Of Workers At The Headquarters In The USA | FXMAG.COM Falling gas is not helping the indices right now, as the fear of falling demand due to a weakening economy is behind the decline, which is equally bad news for both stocks and commodities.    Are you of the opinion that EUR/USD price movement suggests a trend reversal? EURUSD has been rising since late September, although it has occasionally stumbled. Important technical signals of a broken trend were the strong strengthening at the upward cross of the 50-day moving average, which is a signal of capitulation for position traders. At the end of November, the EURUSD had lingered near the 200-day MA for a long time, but on November's last trading day, it crossed up this line. Strictly speaking, the EURUSD recovery fits into the Fibonacci retracement pattern, touching 61.8% of the decline from the peak in May 2021 to the bottom in September 2022. Also, 1.05 looks like a nice round where there might be another round of profit taking from the last 10-figure rally.  Read next: Turbulent times on crude oil market. Nasdaq shrank by 2%, Apple and Amazon lost more| FXMAG.COM Nonetheless, the dollar rally looks outdated, having exhausted the fundamental drivers. Europe has begun to catch up with the US regarding rate hikes, and signals from the Fed are getting softer.   Porsche has just announced their own NFTs. It's one of the most prominent brands in the world - would it mean NFT market isn't 'dead' yet and prices may bounce some time in the future?  This market is not dead, but just hibernated during this crypto winter. At some point in the future, the market will change its pessimistic attitude towards NFT. Markets are cyclical, and while we shouldn't expect a repeat or intensification of the NFT euphoria as it was in 2021, the overall capitalisation of this market could almost certainly rewrite its peaks in the next three years. Admittedly, there will be fewer random people in this market as it increasingly takes on the traditional traits of collectables markets. The only difference is that NFTs are collections of unique digital goods.

Many of us used to count certain time on digital assets market as appealing only at the time of sensational price movements. As FTX collapsed and the hodlers and market participants confidence changed, it's not only about value anymore. Now, the attention is drawn to the stability (sic!) of stablecoins and processing the FTX crash consequences. As you know in recent weeks we've found ourselves flabbergasted by the announcement of Porsche NFT collection in times of Non-fungible tokens winter. We're happy to talk all these news with Zhong Yang Chan, Head of Research at CoinGecko. Are USDT and other stablecoins at risk? Zhong Yang Chan, Head of Research at CoinGecko: Despite the shrinking market capitalization of stablecoins, centralized stablecoin issuers are still able to honor redemptions and withdrawals. As long as users remain able to redeem 1:1 and redemptions are processed in a timely manner, there should still be confidence in the major centralized stablecoins, including USDT. Read next: We predict that nothing radical will happen in the crypto market by the end of the year says Geco.one COO | FXMAG.COM Porsche has just announced their own NFTs. It's one of the most prominent brands in the world - would it mean the NFT market isn't 'dead' yet and prices may bounce some time in the future? Porsche's new NFT collection is a great initiative, and this follows suit from other established brands like Starbucks and Reddit announcing their own NFT collections. NFTs are still nascent, and there is space for its proposition to evolve beyond what people see today (PFPs or 'just a JPEG'). In spite of the bear market, projects are still building to bring about NFTs with utilities, phygital NFTs, and others, and we remain bullish on its future. It is said all the consequences of FTX collapse are in prices. Would you agree or disagree? While the price drop has been significant, it is not the only consequence of FTX's collapse. User confidence—including that of institutions—has been shaken, and there are on-chain projects that have been impacted and may be forced to fold. FTX's demise may have also likely impacted venture capitalists and funds in terms of investments in the blockchain or Web3 ecosystem, and developers may similarly be less keen on building in this space. Finally, the handling and demise of FTX have ultimately set the ecosystem's facilitative regulatory agenda and adoption efforts back. Visit CoinGecko

USDJPY holds steady The US dollar edged higher after November’s PPI beat estimates. Sentiment remains fragile after the price made a U-turn at 137.80, which was a brief support in the previous consolidation. Some buying interest has emerged from 135.40 with the RSI returning to the neutral area. A break above 137.80 would extend gains to the top of a faded rebound at 139.70. Only its breach could lighten up the mood and attract more buyers. On the downside, 133.70 would be a critical floor to keep the current bounce valid. EURCHF pulls back The euro retreats ahead of the ECB interest rate decision. On the daily chart, the single currency is still consolidating its gains after breaking above September’s high of 0.9850. The supply zone near the recent peak (0.9940) seems to be a hard hurdle to clear. The choppy price action is a sign of hesitation due to a lack of catalyst. 0.9820 is the closest support and the RSI’s oversold condition may attract some bargain hunters. A bounce above the psychological level of 0.9900 could trigger a sustained recovery. Read next: What’s more worrisome is the fact that we will continue to learn of all of the contagion and aftereffects of the FTX collapse in the coming weeks and months. | FXMAG.COM GER 40 struggles for support The Dax 40 fell back as traders took profit ahead of a data-intensive week. The bulls have struggled to lift offers around June’s peak of 14650. Instead, a fall below 14350 prompted short-term buyers to take some chips off the table. The former demand zone around 14400 has become a supply one, and more sellers would join the rank if the buy side fails to reclaim it. The recent low of 14150 sits on the 30-day moving average and is a major support. The index could be vulnerable to a deep retracement should it be pierced.

Fed meeting, Microsoft earnings  There was nothing in the list of flash PMI data released yesterday morning to make investors think that economic activity in Europe is doing fine. All numbers were in the red, they all missed expectations. German and French manufacturing plunged further in the contraction zone and German manufacturing PMI even plunged below 39, a number we have not seen since summer 2020, which was the heart of the pandemic. The war, the energy prices, and/or the European Central Bank (ECB) tightening are taking a toll on the German manufacturing. And even the German car sector is struggling. Tesla for example sold more cars in H1 than Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes and Porsche combined. Cherry on top of the bad news, the Spanish PPI showed an 8% contraction versus -10% penciled in by analysts. The EURUSD plunged below the 1.11, the trend and momentum indicators turned negative hinting that the selloff in the runoff to Thursday's ECB meeting could extend toward the 1.10 mark, as the soft economic data brought forward the expectation that the ECB is certainly approaching the end the most aggressive tightening cycle of its relatively short history. But the softer-than-expected fall in Spanish PPI still keeps some hawks defending the idea that the ECB won't stop fighting inflation if inflation doesn't cool enough.     Don't look now, but across the Channel, the PMI numbers didn't look better. The UK manufacturing PMI fell to 45, while the composite PMI avoided the contraction territory by just a few points. Cable sold off to the lowest level in two weeks and is now testing the May to now ascending channel's base, as traders put more weight on the damage that the rising Bank of England (BoE) rates will do to the British economy, than on the good they might do to sterling holders.   Across the Atlantic Ocean, the picture was a little but more mixed. US manufacturing remained in the contraction zone but contracted much slower than expected by analysts, but services and overall activity grew more slowly than expected, still. The US dollar index gained for the 5th consecutive session and is consolidating above the 101 level at the time of writing, as investors continue positioning for the Fed meeting that starts today.   The Fed starts its two-day policy meeting in just a couple of hours from now, and will highly likely announce a 25bp hike on Wednesday. But what Fed officials will also do is to remind investors that the tightening cycle is probably not over and that there will probably be another rate hike on the US' horizon. So yes, there is a great chance that the Fed will spoil your mood if you are among those thinking that this week's rate hike will be the last for this tightening cycle in the US.     Markets  US stocks traded higher yesterday with the S&P500 adding 0.40% and Nasdaq 0.14% after its special rebalancing. The US 2-year yield advanced past 4.90% and fell this morning. While the VIX index shows no sign of a particular stress from equity traders, BoFA's MOVE index is close to 110 level, versus around the 60 level prior to the Q3 of 2021: bond traders remain very much uncertain about the number of additional rate hikes that the Fed could deliver. And there is no line in the sand, the Fed will continue hiking if the US jobs market, consumption and housing market remain resilient to interest rate hikes.    Microsoft earnings  Today, Microsoft is due to announce its Q2 earnings after the bell. Focus is on whether, and by how much Microsoft benefited from the AI craze and how much AI boosted growth for Azure – which was under pressure since a couple of quarters due to macro factors. On Friday, a Goldman Sachs analyst reiterated his buy rating for MSFT and revised his price target from $350 to $400 a share. But because  there is too much optimism in the market, it may be gently time to take profit, wait for the next bullish wave and rotate toward where the next action is expected to happen.  The Magnificent Seven thrived so far this year and the un-magnificent 493 other stocks remained mostly on the sidelines. What we see these days is that the un-magnificent other stocks are also catching up with the rally. Today, 70% of the S&P500 stocks trade above their 200-DMA. Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson said that 'they were wrong' regarding their bearish stock market expectation this year, while JP Morgan's Kolanovic insists that a selloff is coming. And one day, he will be right!    By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank