podcast

Listen: Central banks, inflation and why the battle isn’t over

In a live webinar event this week, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski, and James Smith discussed the outlook for inflation, economic growth and monetary policy around the world, while Chris Turner explained what it could all mean for markets.

 

Central bankers from the US and Europe meet again this week while the Bank of England will decide next week on whether to continue raising interest rates in the ongoing battle to contain inflation. The market’s view on the Federal Reserve has shifted markedly in the past few weeks, with investors now more convinced about a rate hike in July and far less convinced of rate cuts later this year. Meanwhile, investors are pricing in another four rate hikes by the BoE, and two more by the European Central Bank.

 

In this podcast, a replay of our live webinar event, ING's Chief International Economist James Knightley, Global Head of Macro Carsten Brzeski, Developed Markets

The US Dollar Weakens as Chinese and Japanese Intervention Threats Rise, While US CPI and UK Jobs Data Await: A Preview

Podcast: Walt Disney, Electric Vehicles, US CPI And More In The Latest Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 10.08.2022 13:20
Summary:  Today we discuss the possible reactivity to today's US July CPI data point, especially if a hotter than expected core reading challenges the market's determined bet that inflation is set to roll over and normalize over the next couple of years. We also look at an equity market that is technically rolling over, a US dollar that needs to choose a direction, and compelling commodity stories and chart points in gold, crude oil and coffee. A semiconductor, EV, deglobalization, and Walt Disney focus on the equity coverage today. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are available via this link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/podcast/podcast-aug-10-2022-10082022
Steady BoE Rate Expectations Amid Empty Event Calendar in the UK

Podcast: Very Weak Global Sentiment And View Of Gold, Shares And Crude Oil

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 26.09.2022 11:52
Summary:  Today we look at very weak global sentiment as the US dollar and US treasury yields continue to soar, taking US equities to the key cycle lows as we wonder what shape the capitulation will take - a quick test and reverse or a more profound move driven by poor liquidity? Elsewhere, we note sterling's historic drop and suggest that it is time for the Bank of England to step in with an emergency rate hike - or else. Crude oil, gold, stocks to watch today (including Apple with some concern around iPhone 14 orders) and more are on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are found via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean engraver If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/podcast/podcast-sep-26-2022-26092022
Eurozone's Improving Inflation Outlook: Is the ECB Falling Behind?

Podcast: Overview Of Yesterday's Market Events And Look At Signals From The US Consumer Confidence

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 27.09.2022 10:58
Summary:  Today we look at the equity market's precise test of the cycle lows yesterday and brightening sentiment overnight, despite the fresh surge in US treasury yields and the US dollar yesterday. An increasingly inverted VIX forward curve suggests that the market low may be close in time, if possibly not in price. We also look at signals from the US Consumer Confidence as the September reading is due today, break down broader commodity performance since commodities peaked, update the crude oil outlook after the recent price plunge, highlight upcoming event risks on the economic calendar and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are found via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/podcast/podcast-sep-27-2022-27092022
Rates and Cycles: Central Banks' Strategies in Focus Amid Steepening Impulses

Podcast: US Dollar (USD) Keeps Rising | A Look At The 10-year US Treasury

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 28.09.2022 11:39
Summary:  Today, a look at the US 10-year Treasury benchmark reaching the 4.0% milestone for the first time for this cycle after a remarkable surge in yields in recent weeks. It's worth considering the 1987 experience of bond markets flip-flopping in their correlation with equities and whether we could be set for a similar flip-flop if risk sentiment worsens further. Also, note that many speculative corners of the market were bid yesterday even as the action soured late and worsened still overnight as the US dollar continued surging - especially against the Chinese yuan overnight. Much more on today's pod, which is a solo flight with John J. Hardy hosting. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are found via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/podcast/podcast-sep-28-2022-28092022
Belarusian opposition leader proposed a collaboration to Ukraine

Podcast: The Influence Of Geopolitical Tensions On The Currencies Of Central And Eastern Europe, The Bad Apple Situation

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 30.09.2022 12:44
Summary:  Today we look at the market stumbling once again just a day after recovering on the stabilization of global bond markets, in part on rising geopolitical unease linked to Russia, most easily spotted in CEE currencies. Sentiment also dipped on the world's largest company, Apple, seeing its shares trashed in yesterday's session on concerns for the company's growth. A startling outlook from Micron and other weak earnings results also weighed. Elsewhere, we note the interesting weakness in the US dollar as global yields were a pocket of relative calm as risk sentiment deteriorated, a shift from recent behavior. Crude oil, natural gas, metals, thoughts on whether the USD is turning here and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are found via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com. Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/podcast/podcast-sep-30-2022-30092022
Germany's Economic Déjà Vu: A Look Back and a Leap Forward

Podcast: Bears In The Stock Market, US Treasury Yields Lower And More

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 04.10.2022 13:02
Summary:  Today we look at the market celebrating a weak September US ISM Manufacturing data point taking long US treasury yields lower, with noise from the commentariat suggesting a Fed pivot may be near possibly adding energy to the squeeze on equity market bears yesterday. At the same time we note further hawkish noise from key Fed officials, include Vice Chair Williams. Elsewhere, we look at financial conditions, unusual behaviour in sectors that normally would have performed better yesterday, possibly on Tesla's very bad day. Crude oil, a huge surge in silver, gold pushing on resistance and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are found via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/podcast/podcast-oct-4-2022-04102022
Weekly Commitment of Traders update - Buying of crude oil moderated, ICE gas oil net long reduced to a 30-month low

Podcast: Resistance In US Markets, The Crude Oil Reversal On The Threats And OPEC Meeting

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 05.10.2022 11:11
Summary:  Today we look at the short squeeze in equity markets finding surprising further strength yesterday and note that key resistance in US markets has already come into view as the "central bank pivot" narrative may struggle to find further sustenance when most of what we have seen may have just been a temporary improvement after a scary episode driven by UK gilt market contagion that eased. We also look at the status of FX markets, the crude oil reversal on the threats of an actual large production cut from OPEC+ today, Tesla and Twitter after Musk u-turned on his intent to challenge the deal, Tesco and semiconductor stocks and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are found via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/podcast/podcast-oct-5-2022-05102022
Nasdaq 100 Faces Bearish Breakdown Below Ascending Wedge and RSI Momentum Indicator

Podcast: Eyes On US Job Report, US Treasury Yields Rose And The US Dollar (USD) Roared Back Higher

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 07.10.2022 12:46
Summary:  Today we note a fresh weakening in sentiment as US treasury yields rose and the US dollar roared back higher, particularly against the smaller currencies. Also, a look at today's US jobs report and whether it can move the needle much, given the drumbeat of Fed rhetoric staying on the unified tightening-and-not-pivoting message, which will likely require many months of weakening inflation and a weakening jobs market to drive a shift. That means the surprise side is a very strong jobs and earnings report today. Discussion of AMD's shock revenue miss for Q3 reported after hours yesterday, the week ahead in earnings as earnings season get under way, the macro calendar points of note next week and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are found via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean engraver If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com. Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/podcast/podcast-oct-7-2022-07102022
The German Purchasing Managers' Index, ZEW Economic Sentiment  And More Ahead

Podcast: Europe's Real Troubles Discovered As A Result Of The War In Ukraine

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 13.10.2022 11:42
Summary:  As we await today's US September CPI and wonder whether a soft surprise can really move the needle, we highlight one of the starkest assessments of Europe's current predicament, which has crystallized since Russia invaded Ukraine earlier this year and is not just about stocking up on enough gas to survive the coming winter, but will require decades to address. A look at burgeoning interest in the nuclear energy, stocks to watch and upcoming earnings reports, crude oil, wheat and a 79-year low in the orange crop in the US and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are found via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/podcast/podcast-oct-13-2022-13102022
US Nonfarm Payrolls Disappoint: Impact on Dollar and EUR/USD Analysis

Podcast: Moods In The Stock Markets- The Support Levels Of The Nasdaq 100 And S&P 500 And More

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 14.10.2022 11:26
Summary:  Today we discuss the remarkable turnaround in equities yesterday after a hotter than expected core US CPI print for September pumped Fed rate expectations higher and triggered a sharp new slide in the market. The rally came after both the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 tested important support levels. As the headline suggests, we're far from sure that the market comeback offers much information value despite its impressive scale. Elsewhere, we look at the mixed status of USD pairs after yesterday's action, look at natural gas and copper, preview the day and week ahead on the earnings calendar and upcoming macro data points and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX. Listen to today’s podcast- slides are found via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/podcast/podcast-oct-14-2022-14102022
Russia Look Set To Double Its Exports For The First Half Of 2023

The Saxo Bank's Economists Talk About The Upcoming Fed Decision, The Weak Chinese Currency (CNH) And Wheat Jumping

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 31.10.2022 11:34
Summary:  Today, we scratch our heads a bit at Friday's wildly strong equity session, as the narrative supporting recent equity market strength - the anticipation of a dovish downshift in Fed policy guidance - was rapidly unwinding on the same day. An article at the weekend from "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal suggests that the Fed is concerned the market is expecting too much of a policy climb-down this Wednesday. We also discuss wheat jumping on Russia moving against the Ukrainian grain deal, industrial metals struggling on weak China data and a weak Chinese currency, the busy earnings and macro calendar for the week ahead and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are available via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/podcast/podcast-oct-31-2022-31102022
ECB's Tenth Consecutive Rate Hike: The Final Move in the Current Cycle

Saxo Bank's Podcast: The Reaction Of The Markets To The Fed's Decision

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 03.11.2022 11:58
Summary:  Today we look at the hawkish Fed Chair Powell press conference delivering a hammer-blow to sentiment as he managed to both pull off the idea that the Fed may indeed soon pivot to a slower pace of rate hikes as soon as December, but that any talk of a pause is "very premature". The result? Sentiment thrashed and the USD going vertical as the market takes Fed rate expectations and the terminal rate next year higher still. Incoming US data could further aggravate this move if the data remains even resilient, much less hotter than expected. We also talk through the reaction to the FOMC in gold, risks to sterling today if BoE fails to take the hawkish hint from Powell, stocks to watch, perspective on where we are with equity valuations and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are available via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app:           If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.

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