overbought condition

Yesterday, the pound showed impressive growth. Similarly, the euro also showed significant gains. Considering that there was no macro data from the UK, unlike the eurozone, it is more accurate to say that the pound followed the euro. However, this growth contradicted all the macro data.   After all, eurozone inflation slowed down significantly more than expected, while employment in the United States increased substantially more than anticipated. So, the dollar should have extended its growth. But the market went in a different direction, and the formal reason for this was the minutes of the European Central Bank's governing council meeting, which mentioned the possibility of more interest rate hikes. However, the meeting itself took place before there were even rough forecasts for the current inflation.   Just a couple of days ago, several ECB officials explicitly stated that the cycle of interest rate hikes may have come to an end. So, the rise of the euro and, along with it, the pound, goes against common sense. Unless we consider the excessive overbought condition of the dollar, which became the main reason why European currencies increased.   However, there is a high probability that today everything will return to the values at the start of yesterday's trading. Employment data clearly suggests that the content of the US Department of Labor report will be slightly better than expected. In particular, unemployment, which was expected to increase from 3.4% to 3.5%, may well remain unchanged. But if unemployment does increase, the dollar may continue to lose its positions, primarily due to the persistent overbought condition.       During the intense upward movement, the GBP/USD pair jumped above the 1.2500 level. This served as the primary signal of the pound's recovery process relative to the recent corrective move. Due to the sharp price change, on the four-hour chart, the RSI reached the overbought zone, which indicates that long positions are overheated in the intraday period. On the four-hour period, the Alligator's MAs are headed upwards.   This indicates a shift in trading interests. Outlook In this situation, the sharp price change from the day before is a signal of the pound's overbought conditions in the intraday and short-term periods. The target level is set at 1.2550, around which the upward cycle slowed down, which reduced the volume of long positions and resulted in a stagnation. We can assume that the process of the pound's recovery will be temporarily interrupted by a pullback.   However, if the price remains stable above 1.2550, speculators may ignore the technical signal of overbought conditions. In this case, the pair can rise towards the peak of the medium-term trend. The complex indicator analysis unveiled that in the short-term and intraday periods, points to the pound' recovery process.  

On the daily chart, the Nasdaq 100 index shows a deviation between the price movement and the Stochastic Oscillator indicator, even though the bias condition of #NDX is still in a Bull condition, which is confirmed by the price movement which is moving in a channel that is going upwards but is currently in an Overbought condition, where currently the price is stuck at the upper line of its weekly Pitchfork channel and the Stochastic Oscillator indicator is at level 80 (Overbought) so based on the above facts in the next few days it seems that as long as there is no continuity upward movement which exceeds the 14676.5 level then #NDX still has potential plunge down to the level area 13794.3-13695.5.    

Technical analysis:   Gold has been trading upside this morning but I found test and reject of the important resistance at $1.923, which is good sign for the downside rotation. Due to the market extended condition in last 2 days and test-reject of the important resistance cluster, I see potential for the further downside movement towards lower reference. Downside objective is set at the price of $1.914-$1.910 Stochastic oscillator is showing fresh downside cross and overbought condition, which is another good sign for the further downside movement. Key resistance is set at the price of $1.923  

Analysis of GBP/USD 5M   GBP/USD also experienced a minor downward correction on Wednesday, while overall volatility reached 100 pips. This is already something to talk about. Unfortunately, during the European session, movements left much to be desired. In general, we witnessed a flat, and the pair only started to move normally during the U.S. session when three more or less significant reports were published in America. As we mentioned before, reports on durable goods orders and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment turned out to be weaker than expected. However, the third report on initial jobless claims was better than the market's expectations. In our opinion, one positive report could not outweigh two negatives, so we believe that the British pound fell on Wednesday due to the pair's overbought condition. Speaking of trading signals, the flat condition during the European session did not bring any profit. During the first half of the day, four signals were formed around the level of 1.2520, and they were all false signals because the pair, essentially, stood still. Therefore, when the fifth signal was formed around the level of 1.2520 during the U.S. session, it should not have been executed. And the best movement of the day began at this time. Traders could open 1-2 trades in the morning, incurring a small loss, and could then work out the rebound from the level of 1.2445, which allowed them to offset this loss. However, there was no substantial profit.

Key elements remain positive that support the ongoing short-term uptrend phase. Watch the key short-term support at 15,930. Next intermediate resistance stands at 16,200. Fig 1: Germany 30 minor short-term trend as of 24 Nov 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) Since its bullish breakout from its former medium-term descending channel resistance last Tuesday, 14 November, the price actions of the Germany 30 Index (a proxy for the DAX futures) have continued to exhibit positive elements. Oscillating within a short-term uptrend phase since end of October 2023 Firstly, it has continued to oscillate within the upper half of a minor ascending channel in place since the 27 October 2023 low of 14,586.   Secondly, the hourly RSI momentum indicator managed to stage a rebound from key parrel support at the 45 level without any prior bearish divergence condition at its overbought condition which suggests that short-term bullish momentum remains intact. Watch the 15,930 key short-term pivotal support (the median line of the minor ascending channel & minor congestion area of 21/23 November 2023 and a clearance above 16,050 near-term resistance sees the next intermediate resistance coming in at 16,200 (upper boundary of the minor ascending channel & Fibonacci extension cluster. On the flip side, failure to hold at 15,930 negates the bullish tone for a minor corrective decline towards the next intermediate support zone of 15,660/560 (also the 200 and 20-day moving averages).

The 2-day rebound seen in USD/JPY has reached 146.20/70 minor resistance zone. The movement of USD/JPY in the past month has a significant direct correlation with the US 10-year Treasury/10-year JGB yield spread. The short-term to medium-term trends of the US 10-year Treasury/10-year JGB yield spread remain bearish. Watch the 146.70 key short-term resistance on USD/JPY. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “USD/JPY Technical: Potential counter-trend rebound within medium-term downtrend” published on 8 December 2023. Click here for a recap. USD/JPY has rebounded and hit the short-term resistance zones of 144.80/145.30 and 146.20/70 as highlighted in our previous analysis reinforced by the better-than-expected US non-farm payrolls data for November and a media report released yesterday, 11 December that stated the Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials were in no rush to scrap short-term negative interest in the upcoming 18 to 19 December monetary policy meeting according to sources. This latest set of “BoJ’s monetary policy thought process” reported by the media contrasted with the hawkish remarks made by BoJ Governor Ueda and Deputy Governor Himino last week that increased market speculations that the decade-plus of short-term negative interest rate policy in Japan may be scrapped sooner than expected. The USD/JPY extended its gains from last Friday and rallied by +0.86% to print an intraday high of 146.59 as seen in yesterday’s 11 December US session on the backdrop of the media report. It’s all about the yield spread between the US 10-year Treasury & 10-year JGB Fig 1: Movement of USD/JPY and US 10-year Treasury/10-year JGB yield spread as of 12 Dec 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) Interestingly, the movement of the USD/JPY in the past month has moved in sync with the yield spread of the US 10-year Treasury/10-year Japanese government bonds (JGB) which can be considered as an indirect summation net effect of monetary policy guidance from the Fed and BoJ. Their current 20-day rolling correlation coefficient is at 0.90 which suggests that the movement of the US 10-year Treasury/10-year JGB yield spread has a significant direct influence on the movement of the USD/JPY. If the US 10-year Treasury/10-year JGB yield spread compressed (inched downwards), the movement of the USD/JPY reflected a similar directional move on the downside and vice versus if the yield spread expanded to the upside. Overall, the short to medium-term trend phases of the US 10-year Treasury/10-year JGB yield spread is still bearish as it continues to trend below its downward sloping 13-day moving average. Hence, it may put further downside pressure on the USD/JPY. USD/JPY’s recent minor rally may have exhausted Fig 2: USD/JPY short-term minor trend as of 12 Dec 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) The price actions of the USD/JPY have staged a bearish reaction after 2-day of counter-trend rebound at the 146.70 short-term pivotal resistance (former minor swing lows area of 4/5 December 2023 & 50% Fibonacci retracement of the prior minor downtrend phase from 13 November 2023 high to 7 December 2023 low). In addition, the hourly RSI momentum indicator has flashed out a bearish divergence condition at its overbought condition during yesterday’s US session which suggests that the bullish momentum of the 2-day rally is likely to be exhausted. Near-term support will be at 144.20 and a break below it exposes the next intermediate support zone of 142.20/141.60 (coincides with the 200-day moving average). On the flip side, a clearance above 146.70 sees a potential extension of the counter-trend rebound towards the medium-term resistance zone of 147.40/148.60 (coincides with the downward sloping 20 and 50-day moving averages).  

WTI crude oil has started to evolve into a short-term uptrend phase reinforced by the recent liquidity infusion by China’s central bank, PBoC upcoming 50 bps cut on the RRR. The current 5-day rally of WTI crude oil has reached a key medium-term resistance zone of US$79.00/79.40 with a short-term overbought condition. At the risk of a minor mean reversion decline with intermediate supports at US$75.30 and US$74.80. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “WTI Oil Technical: Sideways within a potential minor bottoming configuration” published on 16 January 2024. Click here for a recap. Benchmark oil prices have bottomed and traded higher since the start of this week as the West Texas Oil (a proxy of WTI crude oil futures) had rallied by +4.9% week-to-date at this time of the writing, its best weekly gain since the 9 October 2023. On top of the rising geopolitical risk premium that is supporting firmer oil prices from the ongoing tensions in the Middle East region and Red Sea shipping route, the additional liquidity infusion from China’s central bank (PBoC) with an upcoming 50 bps cut on commercial banks’ reserve requirement ratio has also triggered an indirect “demand-pull” catalyst on oil prices. CTA funds may have contributed to the current bullish momentum frenzy All in all, these factors have created short-term reflexive positive feedback into the oil market reinforced by possible speculative CTA funds that run on momentum-driven models that piled into oil futures with a bullish bias. The price actions of the benchmark Brent and WTI crude oil have pierced above their respective 50-day moving averages on Monday, 22 January and have capped their prices previously since late October 2023; positive momentum begets positive momentum. At the risk of a minor mean reversion decline below US$78.40 Fig 1:  West Texas Oil medium-term trend as of 26 Jan 2024 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)   Fig 2:  West Texas Oil minor short-term trend as of 26 Jan 2024 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) In the lens of technical analysis, the recent push-up of West Texas Oil since the start of this week has led its hourly RSI momentum indicator to hover close to an extremely overbought level of around 74 in place since 12 January 2024. This current overbought condition has also taken form as its price action is now coming close to a key medium-term resistance zone of US$78.00/78.40 (upper boundary of the minor ascending channel from 17 January 2024 low & close to the key 200-day moving average). Therefore, the odds have increased for a potential minor mean reversion decline to retrace a portion of the ongoing short-term uptrend phase with the next intermediate supports coming in at US$75.75/75.30 and US$74.80. On the flip side, clearance above the US$78.40 pivotal resistance invalidates the mean reversion decline scenario for a continuation of the bullish trend towards the next intermediate resistance at US$79.75 in the first step.