nike

Nike reported earnings after the close on Monday. NKE stock is higher after a beat on revenue and earnings per share. Nike says Vietnam production levels are now back to 80% of prior volumes. Nike (NKE) seems to have yielded to its longtime trademark – "Just Do It". The company certainly did that on Monday as it unveiled another strong set of results. Not only that, but concerns over supplies from Vietnam were quieted, and the shares are likely to open higher on Tuesday. Nike stock news Earnings per share came in at $0.83, ahead of the $0.63 estimate. This was a significant beat. Revenue was also ahead at $11.36 billion versus estimates for $11.25 billion. Nike shares popped over 2% on the earnings release. With global equity markets looking a bit healthier on Tuesday morning, expect more gains for NKE stock price as the session progresses. Recent concerns over Vietnam supplies had held Nike stock back. Vietnam is a major textile supplier globally, and it was not just Nike that was affected. A covid outbreak had forced numerous closures. However, Nike outlined in the earnings release that Vietnam production levels were now back up to 80% of preclosure levels. The company said it expects revenue to grow in the low single digits for Q3 in line with consensus at just over 2%. Nike has mentioned that input costs are rising and is planning for supply chain costs to rise. Nike did say that it expects margins to rise 150 basis points. This margin gain is being driven by a direct selling online model that Nike has been adopting. Nike stock forecast Nike is not cheap. The stock I mean, not the sneakers! The company trades on a relatively high price/earnings multiple of 45. This is a significant premium to its peers and reflective of Nike's leadership position. Technically, things do not look too positive in the longer-term outlook either. We have a very clear double top in place from August and November. It remains to be seen if Nike shares will be able to hold above resistance at $164-$166 from the 9 and 21-day moving averages. We doubt it and would be fading any rally. Longer term we have a falling Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator. There is big support coming from the 200-day moving average. Look how well that worked in late September. Currently, the 200-day is at $152. A solid break of that and Nike stock will look to fill the gap created by earnings on June 24. That support is at $134. Failure to fill that gap will be a sign to get back in again, just like in late September. Retracements are opportunities to identify a longer-term trend at play. A retracement that does not create a new significant low is obviously bullish. How to identify one is the tricky part. Given that this is a longer-term time frame, the trick is actually to be slightly late to the party and wait for confirmation. NKE 1-day chart

  Despite death wishes from the doubters, the dollar took to the skies on the Fed’s hawkish wings. Gold and silver can wave from the ground for now. While Fed Chairman Jerome Powell threw fuel on the fire on Jan. 26, it’s no surprise that the USD Index has rallied to new highs. For example, while dollar bears feasted on false narratives in 2021, I was a lonely bull forecasting higher index values. Likewise, after more doubts emerged in 2022, the death of the dollar narrative resurfaced once again. However, with the charts signaling a bullish outcome for some time, my initial target of 94.5 was surpassed and my next target of 98 is near. As such, it’s crucial to avoid speculation and wait for confirmation of breakdowns and breakouts. In its absence, the price action often pulls you in the wrong direction. Remember the supposedly bearish move below 95 when the USD Index moved even below its rising support line? It’s been just 2 weeks since that development. On Jan. 14, I wrote the following: In conclusion, 2022 looks a lot like 2021: dollar bears are out in full force and the ‘death of the dollar’ narrative has resurfaced once again. However, with the greenback’s 2021 ascent catching many investors by surprise, another re-enactment will likely materialize in 2022. Moreover, since gold, silver, and mining stocks often move inversely to the U.S. dollar, their 2022 performances may surprise for all of the wrong reasons. As such, while the dollar’s despondence is bullish for the precious metals, a reversal of fortunes will likely occur over the medium term. Given yesterday’s reversal in the USD Index, it’s likely also from the short-term point of view – we could see the reversal and the return of the USD’s rally and PMs’ decline any day or hour now. Fortunately, if you’ve been following my analyses, the recent price moves didn’t catch you by surprise. What’s next? While the USD Index still needs to confirm the recent breakout and some consolidation may ensue, the bullish medium-term thesis remains intact. More importantly, though, the USD Index’s gain has resulted in gold, silver, and mining stocks’ pain. For example, the dollar’s surge helped push gold below its short-and-medium-term rising support lines (the upward sloping red lines on the bottom half of the above chart). However, since the USD Index hit a new high and gold didn’t hit a new low, is the development bullish for the yellow metal? To answer, I wrote on Jan. 27: The U.S. currency just moved above its previous 2022 and 2021 highs, while gold is not at its 2021 lows. Yet. I wouldn’t view gold’s performance as true strength against the USD Index at this time just yet. Why? Because of the huge consolidation that gold has been trading in. The strength that I want to see in gold is its ability not to fall or soar back up despite everything thrown against it, not because it’s stuck in a trading range. In analogy, you’ve probably seen someone, who’s able to hold their ground, and not give up despite the world throwing every harm and obstacle at them. They show their character. They show their strength. Inaction could represent greater wisdom and/or love and focus on one’s goal that was associated with the lack of action. You probably know someone like that. You might be someone like that. The above “inaction” is very different from “inaction” resulting from someone not knowing what to do, not having enough energy, or willpower. Since markets are ultimately created by people (or algorithms that were… ultimately still created by people) is it any surprise that markets tend to work in the same way? One inaction doesn’t equal another inaction, and – as always – context matters. However, wasn’t gold strong against the USD Index’s strength in 2021? It was, but it was very weak compared to the ridiculous amounts of money that were printed in 2020 and 2021 and given the global pandemic. These are the circumstances, where gold “should be” soaring well above its 2011 highs, not invalidating the breakout above it. The latter, not the former, happened. Besides, the “strength” was present practically only in gold. Silver and miners remain well below their 2011 highs – they are not even close to them and didn’t move close to them at any point in 2020 or 2021. The Eye in the Sky Doesn’t Lie Moreover, if we zoom out and focus our attention on the USD Index’s weekly chart, the price action has unfolded exactly as I expected. For example, while overbought conditions resulted in a short-term breather, the USD Index consolidated for a few weeks. However, history shows that the greenback eventually catches its second wind. To explain, I previously wrote: I marked additional situations on the chart below with orange rectangles – these were the recent cases when the RSI based on the USD Index moved from very low levels to or above 70. In all three previous cases, there was some corrective downswing after the initial part of the decline, but once it was over – and the RSI declined somewhat – the big rally returned and the USD Index moved to new highs. Please see below: Just as the USD Index took a breather before its massive rally in 2014, it seems that we saw the same recently. This means that predicting higher gold prices (or those of silver) here is likely not a good idea. Continuing the theme, the eye in the sky doesn’t lie, and with the USDX’s long-term breakout clearly visible, the wind remains at the dollar’s back. Furthermore, dollar bears often miss the forest through the trees: with the USD Index’s long-term breakout gaining steam, the implications of the chart below are profound. While very few analysts cite the material impact (when was the last time you saw the USDX chart starting in 1985 anywhere else?), the USD Index has been sending bullish signals for years. Please see below: The bottom line? With my initial 2021 target of 94.5 already hit, the ~98-101 target is likely to be reached over the medium term (and perhaps quite soon) Mind, though: we’re not bullish on the greenback because of the U.S.’s absolute outperformance. It’s because the region is fundamentally outperforming the Eurozone. The EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, and the relative performance is what really matters. In conclusion, the USD Index’s ascent has surprised investors. However, if you’ve been following my analysis, you know that I’ve been expecting these moves for over a year. Moreover, with the rally poised to persist, gold, silver, and mining stocks may struggle before they reach lasting bottoms. However, with long-term buying opportunities likely to materialize later in 2022, the precious metals should soar to new heights in the coming years. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. 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S&P 500 once again gave up intraday gains, and credit markets confirmed the decline. Value down significantly more than tech, risk-off anywhere you look. For days without end, but the reprieve can come on seemingly little to no positive news, just when the sellers exhaust themselves and need to regroup temporarily. We‘re already seeing signs of such a respite in precious metals and commodities – be it the copper downswing, oil unable to break $130, or miners not following gold much higher yesterday. Corn and wheat also consolidated – right or wrong, the market seeks to anticipate some relief from Eastern Europe.The big picture though hasn‘t changed:(…) credit markets … posture is very risk-off, and the rush to commodities goes on. With a little check yesterday on the high opening prices in crude oil and copper, but still. My favorite agrifoods picks of late, wheat and corn, are doing great, and the pressure within select base metals, is building up – such as (for understandable reasons) in nickel and aluminum. Look for more to come, especially there where supply is getting messed with (this doesn‘t concern copper to such a degree, explaining its tepid price gains).And I‘m not talking even the brightest spot, where I at the onset of 2022 announced that precious metals would be the great bullish surprise this year. Those who listened, are rocking and rolling – we‘re nowhere near the end of the profitable run! Crude oil is likely to consolidate prior steep gains, and could definitely continue spiking higher. Should it stay comfortably above $125 for months, that would lead to quite some demand destruction. Given that black gold acts as a „shadow Fed funds rate“, ......its downswing would contribute to providing the Fed with an excuse not to hike in Mar by 50bp. After the prior run up in the price of black gold that however renders such an excuse a verbal exercise only, the Fed remains between a rock and hard place, and the inflationary fires keep raging on.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is reaching for the Feb 24 lows, and may find respite at this level. The upper knot though would need a solid close today (above 4,250) to be of short-term significance. Remember, the market remains very much headline sensitive.Credit MarketsHYG clearly remains on the defensive, but the sellers may need a pause here, if volume is any guide. Bonds are getting beaten, and the outlook remains negative to neutral for the weeks ahead. Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals keep doing great, but a pause is knocking on the door. Not a reversal, a pause. Gold and silver are indeed the go-to assets in the current situation, and miners agree wholeheartedly.Crude OilCrude oil is having trouble extending gains, and the consolidation I mentioned yesterday, approaches. I do not think however that this is the end of the run higher.CopperCopper is pausing already, and this underperformer looks very well bid above $4.60. Let the red metal build a base, and continue rising next, alongside the rest of the crowd.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos upswing equals more risk appetite? It could be so, looking at the dollar‘s chart (I‘m talking that in the summary of today‘s analysis).SummaryEvery dog has its day, and the S&P 500‘s one might be coming today or tomorrow. It‘s that the safe havens of late (precious metals, commodities and the dollar) are having trouble extending prior steep gains further. These look to be in for a brief respite that would be amplified on any possible news of deescalation. In such an environment, risk taking would flourish at expense of gold, silver and oil especially. I don‘t think so we have seen the tops – precious metals are likely to do great on the continued inflation turning into stagflation (GDP growth figures being downgraded), and commodities are set to further benefit from geopolitics (among much else).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

S&P 500 reversed the pre-FOMC decline, and turned up. The upswing didn‘t fizzle out after the conference, quite to the contrary, the credit markets deepened their risk-on posture. I guess stocks are buying the story of 7 rate hikes and balance sheet reduction in 2022 a bit too enthusiastically. Not gonna happen, next quarter‘s GDP data would probably be already negative. Yet Powell says that the risk of recession into next year isn‘t elevated – given the projected tightening, I beg to differ. But of course, Powell is right – it‘s only that we won‘t see all those promised hikes, let alone balance sheet reduction starting in spring. Inflation would retreat a little towards year‘s end (on account of recessionary undercurrents and modest tightening), only to surprise once again in 2023 on the upside. I already wrote so weeks ago – before the East European events. There wouldn‘t enough time to celebrate the notion of vanquishing inflation. For now, stocks can continue the bullish turn – just as commodities and precious metals aren‘t asking permission. The FOMC is over, and real assets can rise, including the badly beaten crude oil. Made a good decision to keep adding to the commodities positions at much lower prices (or turning bullish stocks around the press conference). Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 upswing looks like it can go on for a while. It was driven by tech, participating more enthusiastically than value. The conditions are in place for the rally to continue, and it‘s likely that Friday would be a better day than Thursday for the bulls. Credit Markets HYG is catching quite some bid, and credit markets have turned decidedly risk-on. It also looks like a sigh of relief over no 50bp hike – the stock market rally got its hesitant ally. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals upswing can return – and this correction wasn‘t anyway sold heavily into. Needless to say how overdone it was if you look at the miners. $1950s would be reconquered easily. Crude Oil Crude oil bottom looks to be in, and $110s are waiting. Obviously it would take more than a couple of days to return there, but we‘re on the way. Copper Copper is rebounding, and even if other base metals aren‘t yet following too enthusiastically, $4.70 isn‘t far away. Coupled with precious metals returning to more reasonable values, the red metal would continue trending higher. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are leaning risk-on, and the bulls will close this weekend on a good note. Today‘s price action is merely a consolidation in a short-term upswing. Summary S&P 500 bulls got enough fuel from the Fed, and the run can continue – albeit at a slower pace. Importantly, credit markets aren‘t standing in the short-term way, but I think they would carve out a bearish divergence when this rally starts topping out. I‘m not looking for fresh ATHs, the headwinds are too stiff, but as stated within today‘s key analysis, the tech participation is a very encouraging sign for the short-term. The dollar indeed didn‘t make any kind of upside progress to speak of yesterday – and as I have also written at length in yesterday‘s report, the pre-FOMC trading pattern in real assets can be reversed now. Long live precious metals, oil and copper gains! Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Since the start of the year, the performance of emerging market currencies mirrors what we saw in 2021, but with more polarisation. The Brazilian real has been the growth leader against the dollar since the start of the year, gaining around 13%. It is followed by the South African rand and Colombian peso, gaining just over 7%. Among the hardest hit is the Russian Rouble (-33%), but also the Egyptian Pound (-14%) and the Turkish Lira (-10%). In our view, this polarisation only promises to increase in the coming months.Commodity-exporting countries have benefited amid a global jump in energy and agricultural commodity prices. Brazil gets a chance to seriously boost its oil sales to the US amid a supply embargo from Russia. Though net oil exporters, the states must buy significant amounts of heavy crude to run their refineries. Until 2019, oil from Venezuela was used for the right blend, subsequently replaced by Russian crude. Now it is being replaced by oil from Brazil, which promises a significant increase in exports and supports the exchange rate of the Brazilian real.The South African rand is in demand, receiving dividends from last year's monetary tightening and a surge in metal prices since the start of the year. As most global markets look for alternatives to the Russian metal, the ZAR is enjoying demand from speculators in anticipation of increased exports from South Africa for political reasons.We may well be seeing a global reversal in the attitude towards commodity exporters' currencies, as even in the event of a military settlement, there is no expectation of a quick recovery of previous economic ties.At the other end of the spectrum are countries' currencies that depend on imports of oil and agricultural products. Egypt buys most of its wheat consumption from Russia and Ukraine, and rising prices severely damage the balance of payments. Egypt's central bank has responded by tightening monetary policy to suppress inflation. But such steps tend to hurt economic growth. Turkey imported almost all its gas from Russia and Azerbaijan and bought its wheat from Ukraine and Russia. Price jumps and supply-chain disruptions will be costly for the economy and cause increased pressure on the Turkish lira.In addition to the prospect of inflated import volumes, Turkey and Egypt face a severe drop in revenues from the tourism industry, as Russia and Ukraine have provided a significant flow of tourists.

S&P 500 wavered but is bound to get its act together in the medium term. Powell‘s statements shouldn‘t have stunned the bulls, but they did – the mere reiteration of the tightening plans coupled with remarks on the need to stamp out aggressive inflation before it‘s too late (anchored inflation expectations, anyone? I talked that in the run up to the Sep 2021 P&G price hikes and how the competition would be following in a nod to high input costs, with heating job market on top of the commodities pressure pinching back then already), sent stocks and bonds down.Add the recession fears that were assuaged during the Wednesday‘s conference, and you get the S&P 500 bulls having to dust off after Monday‘s setback. Given how early we‘re in the tightening cycle, and that the real economy isn‘t yet breaking down no matter what‘s in the pipeline geopolitically as regards various consequences to commodities, goods, services and money flows, the stock market bulls are still likely to take on the 4,600 as discussed already.Only this time, the upswing would be accompanied by a more measured and balanced commodities upswing, joined in by precious metals. Great profits ahead and already in the making.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is consolidating above 4,400, and the relative strength in value as opposed to tech, is boding well – the bulls are pushing their luck a bit too hard as a further TLT decline would pressure growth stocks.Credit MarketsHYG is getting under pressure again, but its decline would be uneven in the short run – as in I‘m looking for quite some back and forth action. First, higher in taking on yesterday‘s selling.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals aren‘t turning lower in earnest – the miners‘ leadership bodes well for further gains, and is actually a very good performance given the hawkish Fed „surprise“ (surprise that wasn‘t, shouldn‘t have been).Crude OilCrude oil strength returning is a very good omen for commodities bulls broadly, and the rising volume hints at return of bullish spirits. The upswing is far from over – look how far black gold got on relatively little conviction, and where oil stocks trade at the moment.CopperCopper is acting strongly, and the downswing didn‘t entice the bears much. The path of least resistance remains higher, and the red metal isn‘t yet outperforming the CRB Index. Great pick for portfolio gains with as little volatility as can be.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin went on to recover the weekend setback – Ethereum upswing presaged that. They‘re both a little stalling now, but entering today‘s regular session on a constructive note. I‘m looking for modest gains extension.SummaryS&P 500 is bound to recover from yesterday‘s intraday setback – the animal spirits and positive seasonality are there to overcome the brief realization that the Fed talks seriously about tightening and entrenched inflation. While not even the implied readiness to hike by 50bp here and there won‘t cut it and send inflation to the woodshed, let alone inflation expectations, the recession fears would be the next powerful ally of stock market bears. For now though, we‘re muddling through generally higher (I‘m still looking for a tradable consolidation of last week‘s sharp gains), and will do so over the coming several weeks. The real profits are to be had in commodities and precious metals, as I had been saying quite often lately… Enjoy!Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Summary: China’s effect on Nike’s supply chains. Take-aways from the earnings report. Three take-ways from Nike's fourth quarter earnings report Nikes share price is down 2% on Tuesday in the wake of their fourth quarter earnings report. The earnings of the athletic apparel brand has been negatively affected by the impact the Covid-19 lockdowns have had on supply chains and how Nike manages their inventories. In addition, concerns around a looming recession and soaring commodities prices are all contributing to consumer and investor risk-off sentiment, however, Nike's earnings have shown consumers willingness to spend on athletic wear. Nike’s full-year and fourth quarter earnings reported above analyst expectations, in addition, their digital sales grew by 15%, one of the driving factors being social media exposure. Nike has new apparel that is designed to reduce their carbon footprint, on the way. Nike also made it clear that China’s apprehensions will affect the annual financial outlook of Nike. Nike Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, bizjournals.com

The NFT, even after huge declines in trading volume in recent months, seems to have attracted the interest of investors - speculators in this market can still look for potential investment opportunities, and NFT projects are outdoing themselves with more and better unveilings of their venture. Strong interest in NFT has naturally attracted the world's best-known apparel and accessories brands. According to data from Dune Analytics, Nike, Gucci, Dolce & Gabbana and Tiffany earned a total of $260 million from the sale of their NFTs.  Nike received the most revenue from NFT sales. Collections were sold for as much as $185.3 mln, with a secondary market turnover of $1.3 bln and more than 67,000 concluded transactions. In second place is Dolce & Gabbana, which earned $25.7 mln. They are followed by Tiffany ($12.6 mln), Gucci ($11.6 mln) and Adidas ($10.9 mln). After the rise of the first big collections, such as Bored Ape Yacht Club and Crypto Punks, which generated billions of dollars in sales, it was the turn for global fashion brands. They began experimenting with technology to reach more customers and generate new revenue streams. There are minimal costs involved in selling NFTs, especially for companies with a such large following as Nike and Adidas, for example. Therefore, margins from token sales can be very high, and revenues mostly turn into pure profit.  Despite waning interest in NFTs, they can still have a significant impact on new trends in corporate branding. Nike and Adidas have already indicated that they intend to develop NFTs in the Metaverse, which could affect the perception of these brands as innovative and unique, also in the virtual world.  It's worth remembering, however, that an alarmingly large number of projects can't sustain a sufficient level of interest. After its peak at the first offering, excitement tends to drop in the secondary market, and with its prices. NFTs seem to have more resilience to decline if they are the equivalent of something real and have additional functionality. One of the few success stories on the market is the collection of entrepreneur and influencer Gary Vee. VeeFrieds, despite the questionable quality of the graphics, produced a great return on investment. The print price of one NFT ranged from 0.5 to 2.5 ETH, and at the current value of the collection, early investors were able to make between 300 and 1,000% gains. In addition, the token gives the holder the right to participate in one of the leading NFT events - Beacon, organized by Gary Vee. The businessman also enjoys a very loyal following, who believe in the words and vision of the idol, so they are rather reluctant to sell their ownership rights, represented by the token.  RafaÅ‚ Tworkowski, Junior Market Analyst, Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Source: Nike, Gucci and other big brands make millions from NFT sales despite falling interest

Summary:  Fresh lows return in US equities with more hawkish Fed comments and fear of earnings downgrades picking up as the Q3 earnings season draws closer. Cable extended its rally despite UK PM’s commitment to fiscal plan and weakening BOE hike expectations, while the EUR gained strength on the back of hot German CPI and uptick in ECB rate hike expectations. Talks of OPEC+ production cuts are gaining momentum, and focus today will be on China PMIs. Also watch for Eurozone CPI, US PCE data as well as Putin’s speech in the day ahead. What is happening in markets? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) fall to 22-month lows US stocks sank to their lowest levels since November 2020 after another round of Fed speakers continued with hawkish remarks, while oil maintained gains on expectations of OPEC+ cuts. Nasdaq 100 was down almost 4% at one point, but trimmed the losses before closing 2.9% lower, while the broader S&P500 met a similar fate nearing 3,600 before ending 2.1% down. All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 dropped, with Utilities falling the most and followed by Consumer Discretionary. Retail favorites Tesla (TSLA) and Apple  (AAPL)  led the declines falling 6.8% and 4.9% while chip makers followed with AMD (AMD) down 6.2% with PC demand falling away. On the upside, oil stocks like Devon Energy (DVN), and Diamondback Energy (FANG) and Occidental (OXY) moved higher. Separately the European Commission announced an eight package of sanctions that would include a price cap on Russia’s oil exports. U.S. treasury yields (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) climbed again After plunging sharply the day before on the Bank of England move, yields of U.S. treasury securities rose, with the 10-year note yields rising 6bps to 3.79% on Thursday.  Yields initially crept higher on bounces of U.K. Gilt yields and higher German regional CPI data, but paring their rise in the afternoon.  Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIU2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hong Kong and mainland equity markets opened higher on Thursday and pared the gain through the day and settled moderately lower, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.5%, and CSI300 little changed. The news of the imposition of a 3-day mandatory PCR test in the financial district, Lujiazui in Shanghai due to one new Covid-19 case triggered some fears among investors. In spite of PBoC’s supportive statement coming out from its quarterly monetary meeting saying that the central bank will expand its special lending program to ensure the delivery of delayed housing projects, Chinese developers declined, with Country Garden (02007:xhkg) plunging 11.6%, Longfor (00960:xhkg) down by 7.5%, and CIFI (00884:xhkg) tumbling 16.3%.  Chinese EV maker, Zhejian Leapmotor (09863:xhkg), tumbled 33.5% in its first day of trading after an IPO priced at the bottom of a guided range.  XPeng (09868:xhkg) dropped 5.3%.  Trading in the China Internet space was mixed with Alibaba outperforming (+2.9%). Australia’s ASX200 (ASXSP200.1) likely to follow Wall Street lower: futures suggest a 0.3% fall today, aluminum stocks to be bright spark As above, on the ASX today, it’s worth keeping an eye on aluminum related stocks on the ASX including Rio Tinto (RIO) and Alumina (AWC). Meanwhile, diversified miners including the major retail favorites, like BHP (BHP) are worth watching after the Iron Ore (SCOA) price remains supported with China ramping up housing support. This morning the iron ore price (SCOA, SCOV2) pushed up ~1.1% to US$96.50. In NY BHP closed 0.6% higher, implying the ASX primary listing of BHP will likely move up, especially after the aluminum and iron ore prices rose. Cable stays bid and Euro follows The US 10-year yields as well as the dollar could not catch a strong bid on Thursday, which helped other G10 currencies gain some ground. Sterling was the strongest on the G10 board, with GBPUSD now testing 1.12 in early Asian hours. BOE’s emergency bond-buying measures however hints at a push lower in gilt yields, and GBP will likely come back under pressure if the surge in global yield resumes. This will need a focus shift back on Fed tightening as we think there is still some room for upward repricing of terminal rate Fed expectations and higher-for-longer rates. Meanwhile, expectations for an ultra-aggressive BOE hike in November cooled slightly. EURUSD also surged above 0.98 with ECB rate hike expectations for October meeting picking up after the hot German inflation, and with the ECB downplaying the chance of an emergency move to prop up Italian bonds. EURGBP was however lower from 0.8950 to 0.88. Aluminum and aluminum stocks on watch It’s worth watching aluminium related shares across the Asian-Pacific region today after the record jump in Aluminum price on the LME after Bloomberg reported plans to discuss a potential ban on new Russian metal supplies. The metal jumped 8.5% (its biggest intraday jump in record) before paring back. Crude oil (CLU2 & LCOV2) prices maintain gains Crude oil prices maintained the momentum with OPEC+ production cuts becoming a key factor going into the next week’s meeting. OPEC+ commenced discussions around an output cut with one saying it a cut is “likely”, according to Reuters sources. This comes after previous reports that Russia will likely propose OPEC+ reduces output by around 1mln BPD. Demand conditions are likely to weaken as global tightening race heats up, and this has prompted expectations for a supply cut as well. Brent futures touched $90/barrel mark but reversed slightly later, while WTI futures rose to $83/barrel before some decline later in the session.   What to consider? German inflation sparks EZ inflation fears German inflation touched double digits, as it came above consensus at 10.9% YoY for September from 8.8% YoY previously. Germany is also preparing to borrow an additional €200 billion to finance a plan to limit the impact of soaring energy costs, which could keep consumption high even as shortages loom. Up today will be the September eurozone inflation print. Expect a new record which will increase the pressure on the European Central Bank to hike interest rates by at least 75 basis points in October. The economist consensus expects that the headline harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) will reach 9.7% YoY against 9.1% in August. The core rate is expected to climb to 5.6% YoY against 5.5% previously. The spread between the headline and the core inflation figures is mostly explained by a decrease in oil and natural gas prices in recent months. However, this is clear that inflation is becoming broad-based, including in the services sector. This means that inflation is here to stay for long. The HICP is likely to continue increasing in the coming months. A peak in inflation in the eurozone is possible in the first quarter of 2023, in our view. This is much later than in the United States. Fed speakers push for more hikes Loretta Mester remains more hawkish than the Fed’s median dot plot, and said that rate are not in restrictive territory yet and more rate hikes will be needed. No signs of concern on economy or dollar strength were noted, while inflation remained the key point of concern for her. James Bullard also made some key comments on ‘bad idea to mess’ with the inflation target while the labor market conditions remain tight and recession is only a risk. Mary Daly was more cautious, saying officials should work to avoid "inducing a deep recession." However, she still raised the bar on expectations on the Fed funds rate saying that she is comfortable with median Fed rate path projection of 4%-4.5% by year end, 4.5%-5% in 2023 (pointing to upside risks as the dot plot suggested 4.6%, or 4.5-4.75% if we talk in ranges). US initial claims come in strong again Initial claims came in lower than expected at 193k with last week’s also revised lower to 209k from 213k. Continued claims cooled to 1.347mln from 1.376mln despite the expected rise to 1.388mln. The data shows how tight the labour market is in the US and Fed's Bullard labelled today's claims metric as "super low". Meanwhile, the third estimate of Q2 GDP was confirmed to decline 0.6%, notably with consumer spending revised higher to 2% from 1.5% previously. Australian inflation rose 7% in the year to July, based on new monthly CPI At this rate it doesn’t appear CPI will peak at just shy of the 8% the RBA forecasts, given price pressures have resumed this month from the largest inflation contributors. Based on the ABS’s new monthly CPI print, some of the largest price jumps year-on-year to July were in fuel (+29.2%) and fruit & vegetables (+14.5%). The concern is that, with La Nina set to hit Australia and population growth continuing, food and housing (rent) prices will continue to rise apace. In September alone, contributors to food prices have risen markedly, as the global supply outlook has weakened amid poor crop conditions. This could tilt the RBA back toward a more hawkish stance. Australian rents to drive higher, adding to inflation woes Australia’s population growth resumed after borders reopened and business employment remains strong for the time being, at 50-year highs. New office and residential supply is expected be subdued in 2023 as interest rates rise; which supports the notion of falling vacancy rates. According to Colliers and the ABS, Sydney CBD rents rose 3.6% to $5.22 per square foot in the June quarter, driven by competition for top-quality office space. China’s manufacturing PMIs are expected to stay in the contractionary territory China’s September official NBS Manufacturing PMI and Non-manufacturing PMI as well as the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI are scheduled to release today. The median forecast of, economists surveyed by Bloomberg for the NBS Manufacturing PMI is 49.7 for September, a modest improvement from August’s 49.4 but remains in contraction territory.  Economists cite the lockdown of Chengdu and restrictive measures in some other cities during most part of the month and the weak EPMI released earlier as reasons for expecting the NBS Manufacturing PMI to stay below 50.  The Caixin Manufacturing PMI, which has a larger weight in coastal cities in the eastern region, is expected to remain at 49.5 as export-related manufacturing activities and container throughput were weak.  The consensus estimate for the NBS Non-manufacturing PMI is 52.4, staying in the expansionary territory, supported by infrastructure construction but slowing slightly in September from August’s 52.6 due to weakness in the housing sector.  On the other hand, steel production and demand data in September suggest the PMIs may potentially surprise the upside. Buying activity up in food and Agricultural instruments, stocks and ETFs Food prices are supported higher as the global crop outlook dampens for 4 reasons; concern lingers over Ukraine’s exports being cut off, South America has been hit by rains and frosts, the US has been plagued by drought and dry conditions and as Hurricane Ian made landfall in the, US conditions are likely to go from bad to worse. And lastly - La Nina is expected to hit Australia for the third year in a row. So we are seeing clients buy into Wheat and Corn. Both prices are up 20% off their lows. Secondly, buying has been picking up in agricultural stocks like General Mills (GIS) and GrainCorp (GNC). And lastly, clients are biting into agricultural ETFs like Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) and iShares MSCI Agricultural Producers ETF (VEGI). Fed preferred inflation measure, US PCE, on the radar today The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the PCE is due today, and it will likely echo the same message as given by the last strong CPI number which has made the Fed even more hawkish in the last few weeks since the Jackson Hole. Headline numbers may be lower due to the decline in gasoline prices, but the price pressure on services side will likely broaden further. Last week, the Fed also raised its forecasts for inflation, with the central bank now seeing core PCE at 4.5% by the end of this year (it previously projected 4.3%), moderating to 3.1% next year and at 2.1% at the end of its forecast horizon in 2025, but thinks that headline PCE prices will be at its 2% target by then. Putin's speech due today after Russia annexed parts of Ukraine Vladimir Putin will address legislators after Russia signs treaties today to absorb four occupied regions, with Ukrainian forces threatening to encircle a pocket of the Donbas region. There is also growing resistance to Putin’s decision to call up 300,000 reservists. Market focus will likely be on Putin’s warnings to the West about any potential threats of using nuclear weapons, which may mean risk aversion getting another leg up. Nike sank on concerns about inventory build-up and margins Nike (NKE) reported slightly better than expected revenues and inline earnings but below expectation gross margins and a 65% surge in inventories for the North American market.  In the earnings call, the company’s CFO pledged to take “decisive action to clear excess inventory” and such efforts will have “a transitory impact on gross margins this fiscal year”.  Investors took note of the implication on demand and profitability and sold stock to more than 9% lower in the extended hour trading. Apple fell on analyst downgrade After being sold on the company’s announcement to back off plans to increase iPhone production this year on the day before, Apple’s shares fell another 4.9% yesterday after an analyst downgrade from a U.S. investment bank.  In this Market Daily Insights piece yesterday, we mentioned the warnings from Peter Garnry, Saxo’s Head of Equity Strategy, about the likelihood that Apple’s revenue could slip into negative growth for the current quarter ending Sep 30 and you can find more details of his analysis from here. In his note, Peter also warns that analysts may be way off in their estimates for the S&P 500 for Q3 and it is highly probable that there will be significant misses to the downside followed by gloomy comments from company management about the outlook on margins.     For a week-ahead look at markets – tune into our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast. Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/market-insights-today-30-sept-30092022

Summary:  We have long argued that Q3 earnings will disappoint due to margin compression and the energy sector not delivered the same contribution in Q3 as it did in Q2 lifting aggregate earnings. The warning from Shell's CEO and the bad outlook from AMD and Samsung over the past 24 hours are evidence that the Q3 earnings season is most likely going to disappoint. In today's earnings preview we highlight next week's earnings and we also provide our view on the current S&P 500 earnings estimates for next year which we believe are unrealistic given the current macro backdrop. Negative surprises will pop up everywhere during earnings season We have been arguing for quite some time that the Q3 earnings season will surprise to the downside. The recent string of worse than expected results from Nike and H&M, and now also AMD disappointing last night and Samsung this morning missing estimates on Q3 operating income by 12%, are clear signs of what awaits investors. The energy and mining sectors were among the strong contributors in Q2 holding up the aggregate earnings figures, but Shell’s CEO said yesterday that Q3 earnings will be lower q/q due to lower profitability in its refining and chemicals businesses. The list below shows all the most important earnings releases next week. Consumer oriented companies such as PepsiCo, Walgreens Boots, and Delta Air Lines are important earnings to watch for updating our information picture on the consumer amid the cost-of-living crisis. On Friday, several large US financial institutions will report earnings with our focus on JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo. The key things to watch for in US bank results are their ability to increase their net interest margin and the credit provisions. Wednesday: PepsiCo Thursday: Progressive, Fast Retailing, Tryg, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Fastanal, BlackRock, Delta Air Lines, Domino’s Pizza Friday: Shanghai Putailai New Energy, YTO Express Group, PNC Financial Services, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, UnitedHealth Group, Wells Fargo, US Bancorp, First Republic Bank Analysts are too optimistic In our view the bad Q3 earnings season will be a function of both weakening numbers from companies but also unrealistic expectations. The chart below shows the realized quarterly earnings per share for S&P 500 and here we already observe that realized Q3 earnings are behind estimates and that estimates are suggesting strong earnings growth into Q4. This seems very unrealistic to us given the wage pressures that CEOs are complaining about and highlighting as the biggest short-term risk to profitability. The EPS estimates for S&P 500 are $224.98 in 2022 and $243.22 suggesting companies can grow earnings close to trend growth and even expand profit margins to record highs in 2023. We find it very hard to reconcile with the current macro backdrop of tighter financial conditions, war in Ukraine, an energy crisis, and China’s growth slowing down. The high inflation will help revenue growth in nominal terms but it will increase wage demands to offset decline in purchasing power and thus we believe the most realistic dynamic from here is lower profit margin. We expect the net profit margin to decline to 11.3% from 12.6% in 2021 and if apply the estimates on revenue for 20233 of $1801 then our EPS estimate for 2023 is $203.51 which is 16% lower than the current consensus estimate. This translate into a 2023 P/E ratio of 18.4 or earnings yield of 5.4% which one could argue is not an adequate risk premium of US government bond yields and investment grade bonds. One could also argue that the revenue estimate for 2023 is a bit too optimistic as it implies a 4.1% growth rate which might be difficult, but now we are going with this estimate. Dividend futures for 2023 are currently priced at $64.80 which is actually a decline from the expected 2022 dividends of $65.52. A slowdown in dividends is more consistent we our estimate for earnings in 2023 and would take the payout ratio back to 31.9% which again would be closer to the recent average.  Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/q3-earnings-season-kickoff-starts-with-a-warning-from-shell-07102022

Nike unveils its NFT marketplace .Swoosh. CryptoPunks’ floor price flipped Bored Ape Yacht Club. Yuga Labs acquired Beeple’s WENEW. New Project Spotlight NFT Collectibles [COMING SOON] “WearX by PUML” features in real-life and metaverse-compatible wearables by PUML Better Health, a move-to-earn fitness and wellness company from Brisbane, Australia. This collection drops on 21 November, exclusively on Crypto.com NFT. [COMING SOON] In Ruben Kos’s “Welcome to Paradise”, the artist takes viewers on a journey through dead landscapes and eerie nothingness. Featuring a series of self-manufactured structures, this collection will drop on Crypto.com NFT on 29 November. Blockchain Games [LIVE] Defira reveals the most popular hero races purchased on Cronos. In addition, it launched new farm rates that enable players to earn sFIRA (Sealed Fira) to power up their NFT items. [LIVE] CroSkulls is organising the Bonesville Cup on the FIFA World Cup™ fantasy game platform. The top three winners will receive prizes like the Founder Pet, S2 Pet Egg, and S2 Pet (Owl). NFT Metrics The following table shows select top creators (by weekly sales volume on each platform) and a sample of their art: PlatformCollectionSales Volume (USD)Floor Price (USD)Sample OpenSea Bored Ape Yacht Club $6,613,000(+59%) $73,100 OpenSea CryptoPunks $4,429,000(-8%) $80,900 Crypto.com NFT Loaded Lions $594,000(+26%) $2,200 Minted VVS Miner Mole $79,000(-13%) $340 Minted Argonauts $60,000(-5%) $80 Crypto.com NFT Cyber Cubs $38,000(+119%) $220 Blockchain Game Metrics The following table shows select top games by weekly Unique Active Wallets (UAW): GameBlockchain(s)UAWVolumeLogo Splinterlands Hive, Wax 256K(-8%) $7K Trickshot Blitz Flow 65K(-51%) $36K Axie Infinity Ronin, ETH 47K(-13%) $7.3M Ultimate Champions Polygon 45K(+203%) $1K Tiny World BNB Chain 42K(+31%) $44K Source: DappRadar Gaming Token Performance The total market cap for gaming tokens now stands at US$6.65 billion, down -5% from last week.     News Highlights Nike unveiled its NFT marketplace, .Swoosh. It is currently in the beta phase, with its first collection set to launch in 2023. Virtual creations, such as digital sneakers, apparel, and accessories, will become available for collectors. CryptoPunks’ floor price flipped Bored Ape Yacht Club to regain the number one spot. The floor price of CryptoPunks remained relatively stable amidst the market turmoil, varying between 65 to 67 ETH in the past month. Bored Ape Yacht Club creator Yuga Labs acquired NFT startup WENEW, creator of the 10KTF project and other brand collaborations. As part of the deal, WENEW Co-founder Mike “Beeple” Winkelmann will join Yuga Labs as an advisor. Recent Research Reports     Argentina 2022 Survey: Argentines Are Increasingly Keen to Adopt Cryptos and NFTs: Crypto.com recently commissioned a survey of more than 2,000 Argentines to find out more about their investment preferences, knowledge, and opinions on crypto and NFTs. Research Roundup Newsletter (October 2022): In this issue, we cover our recent Bloomberg Terminal integration, a special research report for the Singapore Fintech Festival, and feature articles on NFT financialisation and utility. Alpha Navigator (October 2022): We look at crypto industry performance in October, including ETH’s short-term correlations with equities reducing. Is the Fed pivoting on rate tightening policy? Disclaimer The information in this report is provided as general market commentary by Crypto.com and its affiliates, and does not constitute any financial, investment, legal, tax, or any other advice. This report is not intended to offer or recommend any access to products and/or services. While we endeavour to publish and maintain accurate information, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information in this report nor do we adopt nor endorse, nor are we responsible for, the accuracy or reliability of any information submitted by other parties. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of, or located in a jurisdiction, where such distribution or use would be contrary to applicable law or that would subject Crypto.com and/or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement. The brands and the logos appearing in this report are registered trademarks of their respective owners. Nothing in this report is intended to suggest that NFTs are investment products, nor securities, nor anything similar or “financial” of any description. NFTs are to be reserved for fun only and NOT with any expectation of “value”, “profit”, “yield” or “investment”. You are also aware that NFTs are not a store of value, are not a generally accepted medium of exchange, and are considered very illiquid and volatile. Author Research and Insights Team Get fresh market updates delivered straight to your inbox: Subscribe to newsletters   Be the first to hear about new insights: Follow us on Twitter Tags CRYPTO RESEARCH CRYPTOCURRENCIES GAMEFI NFT Source: crypto.com

Efforts by the sneaker giant to use discounts to clear excess merchandise. Nike raised its revenue forecast and said inventory challenges are diminishing, it raised its revenue forecast and said inventory challenges are diminishing. Consumer sentiment Analysts have been watching Nike and other retailers for progress in reducing inventory, as many Rising prices of food, fuel and many other goods and services weakened consumer sentiment. Shoppers buy but pay more for less goods. They also prioritize food purchases and other necessities over garden furniture and gadgets. Retailers are running overstock and cutting prices to free up space for holiday goods. Many companies have already lowered their profit expectations for this year and are working to reduce costs as consumers pull back spending in categories such as apparel and homeware ahead of the key year-end shopping season. Companies are trying to balance serving consumers who are willing to spend despite rising prices, while being sensitive to shoppers who need or want to be more budget conscious. As a result, retail executives and consultants are predicting the slowest November-January sales growth in years. Read next: The Bank Of Japan's Decision To Allow 10-Year Government Bonds Caused Turmoil In The Financial Markets, USD/JPY Trading Below 133| FXMAG.COM Nike deals better Nike is deviating from the trend, as the company's current results show. The company said second-quarter revenue was up 17% on a year-on-year basis and profits were about the same, a better result than analysts had expected, helping the stock gain more than 11% in trade outside working hours. Nike has reduced inventory levels from the first quarter, but they remain elevated. The company said its inventory was worth $9.3 billion in the quarter ended Nov. 30, up 43% over the previous year. Directors said they saw strong demand, but the company is aware that the economic woes facing consumers have not subsided. On top of that, Nike now expects full-year revenue to grow by a percent below teens, excluding currency fluctuations, up from its September forecast of low double-digit percentage growth. The most optimistic forecast reflects what Nike has seen from consumers starting in August through the first few weeks of December. The past For the past two years, supply chain turmoil has held back Nike's growth as the company has struggled with stock shortages due to Covid lockdowns and factory closures in Vietnam and China. The company then sought to increase orders to both meet consumer demand and stay ahead of transit constraints. Nike executives said the company began increasing discounts this summer, but was more aggressive in trying to get rid of items in the fall quarter. A year ago, Nike went from having a tight inventory and being able to charge full prices for its goods to having to reduce inventory in a market where products are sold at a discount. Some items can still be sold without significant discounts. As a result, sales in North America increased by 30% compared to the previous year. Retailers that sell Nike products, such as Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. and Foot Locker Inc., have reported better-than-expected sales in recent quarters, in part because they have had access to products that have been hard to come by for the past two years. Nike share price In the most recent quarter, Nike reported net income of $1.33 billion, or 85 cents a share, compared with $1.34 billion, or 83 cents a share, a year earlier. Revenue rose to $13.32 billion from $11.36 billion a year earlier. Currently, the share price in December is even higher and exceeded 100. It seems that December will be the best month of this quarter due to the Christmas mood. Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discussed the surprisingly good earnings and reactions from Nike and FedEx, energy markets, and the latest news with cryptos.   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

DAILY MARKET NEWSLETTER December 22, 2022               Pre-Market Session News Sentiment Technical Views           EUR/USD   Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)   Brent (ICE)                 Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.                     Price Movement Analyst Views Target Pivot   Dax (Eurex) 14,191.00 +32.00 (+0.23%) Read the analysis 14,220.00 14,080.00     FTSE 100 (ICE Europe) 0.00 0.00 (0.00%) Read the analysis 7,555.00 7,430.00     S&P 500 (CME) 3,917.50 +11.75 (+0.30%) Read the analysis 3,930.00 3,884.00     Nasdaq 100 (CME) 11,373.75 +39.25 (+0.35%) Read the analysis 11,400.00 11,280.00     Dow Jones (CME) 33,645.00 +76.00 (+0.23%) Read the analysis 33,780.00 33,330.00     Crude Oil (WTI) 78.74 +0.45 (+0.57%) Read the analysis 79.50 77.50     Gold 1,818.84 +4.45 (+0.25%) Read the analysis 1,824.00 1,810.00                     MARKET WRAP           Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, CommoditiesOn Wednesday, U.S. stocks closed over 1% higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 526 points (+1.60%) to 33,376, the S&P 500 gained 56 points (+1.49%) to 3,878, and the Nasdaq 100 rebounded 163 points (+1.48%) to 11,235.Regarding U.S. economic data, the Conference Board consumer confidence index unexpectedly rose to 108.3 in December (vs 100.1 expected). The number of existing home sales dropped to an annualized rate of 4.09 million units in November (vs 4.30 million units expected).The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield eased 1.3 basis points to 3.669%.Consumer durables & apparel (+7.18%), semiconductors (+2.52%), and commercial & professional services (+2.06%) sectors led the market higher.Nike (NKE) jumped 12.18% and Fedex (FDX) rose 3.43%, as both companies' quarterly earnings exceeded expectations.From a technical point of view, 3M (MMM) and Verizon Communications (VZ) crossed above their 50-day moving average.European stocks also closed higher. The DAX 40 rose 1.54%, the CAC 40 increased 2.01%, and the FTSE 100 was up 1.72%.U.S. WTI crude futures climbed $2.20 (+2.88%) to $78.47 a barrel. The U.S. Energy Department reported a reduction of 5.89 million barrels in crude-oil stockpiles (vs -1.65 million barrels expected).Gold price declined $3 to $1,814 an ounce.Market Wrap: ForexThe U.S. dollar index held steady at 104.21.USD/JPY gained 66 pips to 132.39.EUR/USD dipped 14 pips to 1.0610. In Germany, the GfK consumer confidence index improved to -37.8 for January (vs -36.0 expected).GBP/USD dropped 100 pips to 1.2083. U.K. data showed that public-sector net borrowing rose to a record of 21.2 billion pounds in November from 13.4 billion pounds in October. AUD/USD added 34 pips to 0.6712.USD/CHF added 8 pips to 0.9268, while USD/CAD dipped 5 pips to 1.3606.Bitcoin traded slightly lower to $16,790.Morning TradingIn Asian trading hours, USD/JPY retreated to 131.75 from 132.39 in the prior session.Meanwhile, EUR/USD bounced to 1.0635 and GBP/USD rebounded to 1.2125.Gold advanced $1,819.Bitcoin edged up to $16,850.Expected TodayU.K. final readings of third quarter gross domestic product is expected to be up 2.4% on year, while current account deficit is estimated at 18 billion pounds.In the U.S., final readings of third quarter annualized gross domestic product is estimated to be up 2.9% on quarter, while weekly initial jobless claims are expected at 225,000. Also, November Chicago Fed national activity index is anticipated at -0.18 and leading index is expected to drop 0.5% on month.           UK MARKET NEWS           Shell, a giant oil producer, has temporarily suspended production at its Prelude floating liquefied natural gas site in Australia following a small fire incident, according to Reuters.Basic Resources, banks and oil & gas shares gained most in London on Tuesday.From a relative strength vs FTSE 100 point of view, Barclays (+1.5% to 158.08p) crossed under its 50-day moving average.From a technical point of view, Ashtead Group (+1.5% to 4797p), BAT (+1.18% to 3353.5p), BP (+2.68% to 480p), Diageo (+1.75% to 3693p) crossed above their 50-day moving average.           ECONOMIC CALENDAR           Time Event Forecast Importance   02:00 Current Account (Q3) -18B MEDIUM     02:00 GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q3) 2.4% MEDIUM     02:00 GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final (Q3) -0.2% MEDIUM     08:30 Initial Jobless Claims (Dec/17) 225k MEDIUM     08:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Nov) -0.18 MEDIUM     08:30 GDP Price Index QoQ Final (Q3) 4.3% MEDIUM     08:30 GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final (Q3) 2.9% MEDIUM                                     NEWS SENTIMENT           AstraZeneca PLC AZN : LSE 11,244.00 GBp -1.02% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Neutral       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Uniper SE UN01 : XETRA 3.086 EUR +3.14% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   BHP Group PLC BHP : LSE 2,585.00 GBp +2.42% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Neutral       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Cineworld Group PLC CINE : LSE 3.96 GBp -12.97% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Bayerische Motoren Werke AG BMW : XETRA 84.15 EUR +1.63% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Neutral       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   HSBC Holdings PLC HSBA : LSE 511.30 GBp +3.79% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                           TECHNICAL VIEWS           EUR/USD Intraday: further advance.   Pivot: 1.0620   Our preference: Long positions above 1.0620 with targets at 1.0660 & 1.0680 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Below 1.0620 look for further downside with 1.0590 & 1.0575 as targets.   Comment: The RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.                     Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)‎ (H3)‎ Intraday: bullish bias above 3825.00.   Pivot: 3825.00   Our preference: Long positions above 3825.00 with targets at 3930.00 & 3990.00 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Below 3825.00 look for further downside with 3767.00 & 3739.00 as targets.   Comment: The RSI calls for a new upleg.                     Brent (ICE)‎ (G3)‎ Intraday: towards 84.00.   Pivot: 81.40   Our preference: Long positions above 81.40 with targets at 83.10 & 84.00 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Below 81.40 look for further downside with 80.80 & 80.10 as targets.   Comment: The RSI calls for a new upleg.        

Summary:  Market are putting on a show of increasing calm, but we can hardly expect that the implications of what has unfolded are set to quickly fade after two dramatic weekend interventions to avoid banks triggering a systemic crisis. First up is the FOMC meeting tomorrow and how the Fed positions what is going on and how it guides from here now that the market has already priced in significant rate cuts by year-end. But the Bank of England and Swiss National Bank are also up tomorrow. What is our trading focus? US equities (US500.I and USNAS100.I): awaiting the FOMC rate decision S&P 500 futures rallied 2.2% from the lows after initial nervousness over the AT1 capital market in Europe as Swiss regulators wiped out Credit Suisse AT1 capital holders while leaving money on the table for shareholders. The best performing sector was energy while technology stocks did the worst due to bond yields rising. S&P 500 futures are extending their gain in early trading hours with the 4,000 level being the big gravitational point and colliding with the 200-day moving average. Across markets investors are now awaiting tomorrow’s FOMC rate decision in which the Fed is leaned in markets to hike 25 basis points. Tonight, after the market close Nike will report earnings and provide an outlook on the global consumer. European equities (EU50.I): confidence is coming back for now The rescue of Credit Suisse and subsequent reassuring comments from UK and EU regulators that AT1 capital holders are still above shareholders in the capital structure, despite the Swisse regulators broke that order in their Credit Suisse takeover design, lifted sentiment yesterday with STOXX 50 futures rallying 3.7% from intraday lows. The index futures are extending the gains trading above the 4,100 level with the 50-day moving average at around 4,144 is the next potential upside level if momentum continues. Focus is still on banks and real estate related companies. Hang Seng Index and CSI300 bounced modestly Selling in the Hong Kong equity market took a pause as battered financial names rallied and the Hang Seng Index gained nearly 1%. HSBC (00005:xhkg) and Standard Chartered (02888:xhkg) gapped higher following rallying overnight in the London session but then traded sideways, up 2% and 1.5% respectively as of writing. Pharmaceuticals and consumer names were top gainers with the benchmark Hang Seng Index. The three leading China telcos consolidated for the second day after a strong performance in March, falling over 1%. In A-shares, CSI300 advanced by around 1%, led by the defense, and tourism stocks. ChatGPT concept stocks were well bid. FX: USD stabilizes on rebound in yields and ahead of FOMC The US dollar stabilized after choppy trading and a bout of weakness yesterday as the market mulls the odds for a Fed pause at tomorrow’s FOMC Meeting (preview below), with a rebound in yields and odds for the Fed to go ahead with another rate hike supporting, while at the same time spoiling the Japanese yen’s rally attempt, which can only thrive on lower yields. An important seasonal consideration for JPY traders, by the way is the end of the Japanese financial year at the end of this month and as we await signals from the incoming Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda as he is set to take the helm in a few weeks. The kiwi was particularly weak overnight as RBNZ expectations have deflated since this latest bout of turmoil started, although less rapidly than RBA forward expectations have. Tonight, NZ reports its Q1 Consumer Confidence survey after the Q4 survey came in at 75.6, the worst ever in the 34-year history of the survey. Crude oil bouncing but not by enough to force a turnaround in sentiment Crude oil, down around 12% this month, remains the biggest casualty among key commodities as the banking crisis and risks to the global economic outlook has led to short-term price and demand downgrades. In addition, the technical breakout of long-established ranges has forced major position changes from traders and investors. Hedge funds sold 65k lots of Brent in the week to March 14, and continued selling since then has helped flattening the curve as the market price in lower demand in the months ahead. So far, technical selling and the need to reduce exposure have drowned out signs of robust Chinese demand with Trafigura seeing record demand for some grades. While the attention now turns to the FOMC meeting, Brent and WTI as a minimum would need to close above $75 and $70 respectively before a change in direction can be contemplated. Gold eased back from the $2000 level with eyes on Fed and AT1 bonds Gold prices briefly rose above $2,000 on Monday to fresh one-year high of $2010 as the bank lending sector was sent into a tailspin before stabilizing later in the day as regulators rushed to shore up optimism. Before then, gold had reached a record high against the Australian dollar and a near record against the euro, highlighting gold's current ability to attract bids despite pockets of dollar strength. The focus now turns to the FOMC meeting, the most unpredictable in years, with market having gone from hike to cut and back to a hike within the last week. What’s important from a gold perspective is whether a hike will be followed by a signal to pause, if so, it would support market expectations that rate cuts may follow in the coming months. Short-term gold seems overbought, and a correction if gathering pace could see it target $1931, the 0.382 Fibo retracement of the latest run up since March 8. Overall, gold is in an uptrend short- and medium-term and could test all-time highs around $2,074  Flight to quality bids for Treasuries faded as bank stocks rallied In Asian hours and the early London session on Monday, investors flocked to the front end of the Treasury curve, seeing the 2-year yield falling to as low as 3.64% as fear arose toward the Additional Tier-1 debts (AT1) issued by banks following the wiping out of over USD17 billion such debts in the takeover deal of Credit Suisse by UBS. The gains in Treasuries faded as stocks, including bank stocks, rallied when New York came in and the Bank of England said that AT1 debts rank ahead of common equity in case of insolvency. The market is pricing in around 18bps, in other words, around a 70% chance for a 25bp hike at the FOMC tomorrow. The 2-year yield finished the Monday session 14bps cheaper at 3.98% while the 10-year yield was up 6bps to 3.48% What is going on? US FDIC studies was to insure all deposits in a crisis Bloomberg reports that US officials are studying ways to temporarily cover all deposits in an emergency, prompted to do such by a coalition of banks. The US Treasury Department will have to determine whether it has the authority to insure all deposits greater than the current cap of $250,000 without Congressional approval, with the latter a likely hefty challenge given the deep partisan divisions. First Republic Bank, widely seen as the most troubled bank of size in the US, saw its shares drop by almost half yesterday despite peers putting together a $30 billion rescue plan for the bank. EU regulators assure markets of capital structure norms after Credit Suisse After the AT1 bonds of Credit Suisse were written off in the deal with UBS, EU and UK regulators reassured markets that junior creditors should bear losses only after equity holders have been fully wiped out. But the statement could not provide enough support to Europe’s $275 billion AT1 market. The EU and UK authorities also said they welcomed the comprehensive set of actions taken by the Swiss authorities to ensure stability and that the European banking sector remains resilient, with robust levels of capital and liquidity. Meanwhile, ECB President Lagarde was also on the wires and she continued to reaffirm that the central bank’s inflation fighting mission is separate from the financial sector threats. Read next: JP Morgan, GS and Morgan Stanley ended the day above the line. On Monday, S&P 500 increased by almost 1%, Nasdaq gained 0.34%| FXMAG.COM Amazon lays off another 9,000 employees Amazon announced that it is laying off another 9,000 employees, adding to the 18,000 jobs cuts it has announced since the end of last year. The latest job cuts would primarily affect Amazon Web Services, human resources, advertising and the Twitch livestreaming service groups, and comes after a massive hiring spree during the pandemic which left Amazon and other tech companies over-staffed. Amazon is up 16% YTD. Russia says it will listen to China’s peace proposal. US Secretary of State Blinken responds. With Chinese leader Xi in Moscow, Russian leader Putin said is open to discussing China’s proposals for “the acute crisis in Ukraine”, but it is a non-starter with Ukraine and its supporters if the proposal simply freezes the current Russian territorial claims. US Secretary of State Blinken positioned China’s overtures as such and said that Xi’s visit is offering Putin “diplomatic cover” as it comes just days after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin for war crimes. After Xi’s visit in Moscow this week, a video conference between Xi and Ukraine’s president Zelensky is also planned. Mining titans and traders see copper prices hitting a new record within a year. Copper has only lost around 3.5% this month which is around 1/3 of the losses seen in crude oil, and it highlights the market focus on a recovering China, low visible stock levels and the continued rise in demand towards electrification.  Trafigura co-head of metals Kostas Bintas joined other senior trading executives at the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit who were uniformly bullish on the outlook for copper, citing constrained supplies and the outlook for rising demand for electrification as part of the green-energy transition.  Mercuria chipped in by saying that the current prices do not reflect the reality of a looming shortage. What are we watching next? FOMC meeting tomorrow – to hike or not to hike? The focus for the upcoming Fed will clearly have to address the current financial stability concerns while pretending to stay on message on inflation considerations. The US Feb. CPI data remained hot, with services inflation still sticky, and Powell's preferred "supercore" metric (which excludes shelter and rent) rose 0.5% month-on-month from 0.36%, the highest since September, so there is plenty of cause for the Fed to continue its hiking regime from the “incoming data” side of the equation. BUt the Fed’s messaging on inflation will be pushed to the side as investors watch for two things: first, simply whether the Fed hikes 25 basis points or stands pat, but second and more importantly, how it positions its level of concern around recent events and the risk of a funding crisis in the banking system and therefore how it guides for the path of rates and QT from here. The market has already marked the Fed to cut more than 75 basis points by year-end after possibly hiking another 25 basis points over the next two meetings (tomorrow’s meeting has a +18 bps probability, i.e., a lean for a hike, but a significant minority is looking for the Fed to blink and not hike rates tomorrow.) Earnings to watch Nike reports earnings tonight after the US market close with analysts expecting revenue growth of 6% y/y for the FY23 Q3 (ending 28 Feb) and EBITDA of $1.19bn down from $1.81bn a year ago. Nike continues to be the leader in the sports retailing industry and with a strong result and outlook from Chinese-based Anta Sports (shares were up 7% in Hong Kong trading) we expect Nike to deliver good results. This week’s earnings releases: Tuesday: RWE, Anta Sports, Partners Group, Nike Wednesday: Tencent, China Telecom Thursday: China Mobile, Accenture, General Mills, Darden Restaurants Friday: China Merchants Bank, Meituan, China Petroleum & Chemical Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 1000 – Germany Mar. ZEW Survey 1230 – US Philly Fed Business Activity Survey 1230 – ECB's Lagarde, Villeroy to speak 1230 – Canada Feb. CPI 1400 – US Feb. Existing Home Sales 1700 – US 20-year Treasury Auction 2000 – New Zealand Q1 Westpac Consumer Confidence 2030 – API's Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report Source: Global Market Quick Take: Europe – March 20, 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

Nike will report FQ3 results after close on March 21. NKE stock has risen in anticipation above $123. Analysts seems to think that earnings will be hurt by tighter margins. Nike stock is positioned for upward momentum toward $129 or $139. Nike (NKE) is scheduled to release earnings results for the fiscal third quarter after the close on Tuesday. Wall Street consensus has Nike pegged at $0.54 per share in GAAP earnings for the three months ending February 28, 2023. Despite rejiggering its outlook plenty so far this year, Wall Street consensus on revenue sits at $11.48 billion heading into the earnings call. Nike stock is trading up 1.9% in Tuesday's premarket at $123.50 ahead of the results, while both the Dow and S&P 500 futures are up around 1%. The US Treasury on Tuesday is reportedly studying way to insure all US bank deposits. This has the US banking sector rising with struggling lender First Republic Bank (FRC) spiking more than 27% in the premarket. Nike stock news: Discounts galore Nike has not missed Wall Street consensus on either the top or bottom lines since in the past five quarters. Odds are that this quarter will be no different as the consensus figure is down from the $0.87 earned in the same quarter a year ago. Worries over margins has led analysts to cut their EPS estimates for fiscal Q3 while mostly raising the forecast for revenue. A recent research note by Placer.ai explains why. Placer.ai tracks foot traffic for various brands. In a report that came out last week, their data showed that foot traffic at Nike and Nike Factory stores rose 8.2%, 21.8% and 6% YoY in December, January and February. Much of January's sharp spike can be attributed to a lower base from January 2022 when the Omicron strain came roaring back. This would seem to be quite positive for shareholders, but Placer.ai found that Nike has been focused on getting rid of higher than normal inventory by offering generous discounts. These discounts are expected to reduce gross margins and profits. Source: Placer.ai Equity research firm Redburn also recently gave Nike stock a $100 price target and a Sell rating due to the footwear company's expected difficulties in China. Nike CEO John Donahoe has a plan to quadruple foreign sales of Nike, but Redburn's analysts think the reopening in China will fail to materialize for Nike. A major piece of Redburn's skepticism is that Nike seems overvalued. With earnings per share expected to fall in early 2023, why is the brand selling for 35 times earnings? Of course, a robust outlook may be enough to trigger a rally for Nike shares. However, Foot Locker (FL) lost more than 5% on Monday after offering up lackluster forward guidance. Shareholders will also listen to the earnings call for more color on Nike's litigation with Lululemon Athletica (LULU). Nike is suing Lululemon for patent infringement in regard to textile materials and design on several lines of Lululemon footwear. Nike stock forecast Despite the precautious outlook by analysts, the market is not buying the despair. Both the Moving Average Covergence Divergence (MACD) and the 9-day and 21-day moving average pairs show bullish crossovers in the making. Secondly, NKE stock has a large base of support sitting nearby. This area ranges from $114 to $118.50 and offers traders an added bonus of safety. The region has been respected as both support and resistance since July of last year. A successful earnings call will send Nike stock assuredly up to January's resistance formation around $129. A spectacular beat would have bull yearning for the March and April 2022 high around $139. Nike daily chart

Auction house Sotheby’s launches secondary NFT marketplace. Blur launches NFT lending protocol, Blend. Sports Illustrated launches NFT ticketing platform on Polygon. New Project Spotlight NFT Collectibles [COMING SOON] ‘Crypto.com Expedition Gear’ is an all-new Crypto.com NFT collection, featuring 5 unique backpack NFTs, 25,000 collectibles to be airdropped, as well as 25,000 collectibles to be sold.     [COMING SOON] ‘SANTUARIO’ is a collection by award-winning artist Laprisamata. This drop features altars that are inspired by surrealist art and adorned with ornate decorations from over the world. The collection goes live on Crypto.com NFT on 12 May.     Blockchain Games [COMING SOON] Croskull is launching bitCroSkull, an exclusive Ordinals collection. Croskull will share more about the Ordinals collection in their Twitter Space, titled ‘NFTs & Ordinals: What’s the future for the industry?’.     [LIVE] Defira has launched their latest ‘Fanbase Mining’ competition, where gamers can submit their artwork, ideas, and fan art to win prizes. The contest runs until 11 May, and submissions can be any original content related to Defira.     NFT Metrics The following table shows select top collections (by weekly sales volume on each platform) and a sample of their art: PlatformCollectionSales Volume (USD)Floor Price (USD)Sample OpenSea Azuki $26,600,000(+56%) $29,100     OpenSea Mutant Ape Yacht Club $19,000,000(-37%) $21,400     Crypto.com NFT Loaded Lions $260,900(+555%) $1,300     Crypto.com NFT Crypto.com Land – The First Frontier $45,300(+151%) $50     Minted VVS Miner Mole $19,400(+62%) $190     Minted Mutant Aiko Beanz $6,000(-11%) $10     As of 5 May 2023Sources: OpenSea, Minted, Crypto.com Research Blockchain Game Metrics The following table shows select top games by weekly Unique Active Wallets (UAW): GameBlockchain(s)UAWVolumeLogo Iskra Klaytn, Ethereum 957K(-44%) $517K     Splinterlands Hive, WAX 94K(+12%) $4K     Axie Infinity Ronin, Ethereum 33K(+12%) $33.7M     SecondLive BNB Chain 27K(-12%) $0.8K     Planet IX Polygon 27K(+26%) $789K     As of 5 May 2023Sources: DappRadar, Crypto.com Research Gaming Token Performance The total market cap for gaming tokens now stands at US$12.43 billion, down -5% from last week.     News Highlights Auction house Sotheby’s launched an on-chain secondary NFT marketplace on Ethereum and Polygon. The artists featured in the marketplace will rotate every few months. The platform will launch with works from 13 leading digital artists, including Tyler Hobbs, the creator of Fidenza. NFT marketplace Blur has launched an NFT lending protocol, Blend, which enables peer-to-peer loans and a Buy Now, Pay Later feature. Blend allows collectors to buy blue-chip NFTs with a smaller upfront payment, by first paying a percentage of the full NFT price before financing the remaining amount. US sports magazine Sports Illustrated is partnering with Ethereum software company ConsenSys to launch an NFT ticketing platform on Polygon. The platform, named ‘Box Office’, will allow event organisers to equip tickets with content such as photo and video highlights, collectibles, and loyalty rewards to engage with fans. Basketball star LeBron James was spotted wearing RTFKT x Nike sneakers that can only be obtained by minting an Ethereum NFT created by Nike subsidiary, RTFKT. RTFKT co-founder Steven ‘Zaptio’ Vasilev also presented James with an honorary Clone X avatar. Read next: Nasdaq 100 lost 0.4% yesterday. AMD benefited from the news on the collaboration with Microsoft| FXMAG.COM Recent Research Reports                 Monthly Research Roundup (March 2023) Bitcoin’s Expanding Ecosystem: Layer-2, DeFi, NFT Alpha Navigator: Quest for Alpha [April 2023] Monthly Research Roundup (March 2023): In this issue, we feature trending market insights, our latest Crypto.com Visa Card Consumer Spending Insights for 2022, and our research reports on liquid staking derivatives. Bitcoin’s Expanding Ecosystem: Layer-2, DeFi, NFT: This report explores the landscape of the latest projects building on top of Bitcoin, including Layer-2 scaling solutions and key application categories like DeFi and NFT. Alpha Navigator: Quest for Alpha [April 2023]: Asset classes were generally flat in April, with crypto outperforming. The US Federal Reserve could be on the cusp of ending the rate hike cycle. We’re all ears. Your feedback has always helped us provide insightful crypto market trends. Tell us how we can improve this newsletter further by taking a quick survey below (it will only take less than a minute). Thank you! Take our survey now Disclaimer The information in this report is provided as general market commentary by Crypto.com and its affiliates, and does not constitute any financial, investment, legal, tax, or any other advice. This report is not intended to offer or recommend any access to products and/or services. While we endeavour to publish and maintain accurate information, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information in this report nor do we adopt nor endorse, nor are we responsible for, the accuracy or reliability of any information submitted by other parties. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of, or located in a jurisdiction, where such distribution or use would be contrary to applicable law or that would subject Crypto.com and/or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement. The brands and the logos appearing in this report are registered trademarks of their respective owners. Author Research and Insights Team Get fresh market updates delivered straight to your inbox: Subscribe to newsletters   Be the first to hear about new insights: Follow us on Twitter Tags BLOCKCHAIN GAMING CRYPTO RESEARCH CRYPTOCURRENCIES NFT NFT & Blockchain Gaming Weekly (05/05/2023) (crypto.com)

Nike has entered into an agreement with the Chinese company AntChain to use its solutions based on blockchain. They are to be used to track shoes (and their users) that Nike equips with chips embedded in the sole For some time, however, some varieties of Nike shoes have been distinguished by chips in the sole, the purpose of which is to trace the origin of the shoes in order to be able to recognize and eliminate counterfeits at any time. It does not stop there.   Last Sunday, June 18, Nike announced a partnership with AntChain, a company belonging to the Alibaba group. The partnership is to use blockchain-based AntChain solutions to track Nike shoes. What's more, the chips in the soles are also supposed to contain dynamically encrypted NFC chips, so that tracking can be done remotely. Interestingly, Nike has its own blockchain solutions, but concentrates their use in other areas. AntChain, on the other hand, offers its blockchain in a spine-chilling formula called Traceability as a Service (TaaS). Given the state of privacy protection in the Middle Kingdom, it is not surprising that this company can be considered an expert in the field of tracking.         Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair hit the key technical resistance located at the level of $1,930 after a 19% rally from the last swing low. The intraday technical support is seen at the level of $1,777. The market conditions are extremely overbought on the H4 time frame chart, so please keep an eye on this level as the pull-back can haapen any time now.  

Nike has entered into an agreement with the Chinese company AntChain to use its solutions based on blockchain. They are to be used to track shoes (and their users) that Nike equips with chips embedded in the sole For some time, however, some varieties of Nike shoes have been distinguished by chips in the sole, the purpose of which is to trace the origin of the shoes in order to be able to recognize and eliminate counterfeits at any time. It does not stop there.     Last Sunday, June 18, Nike announced a partnership with AntChain, a company belonging to the Alibaba group. The partnership is to use blockchain-based AntChain solutions to track Nike shoes. What's more, the chips in the soles are also supposed to contain dynamically encrypted NFC chips, so that tracking can be done remotely.   Interestingly, Nike has its own blockchain solutions, but concentrates their use in other areas. AntChain, on the other hand, offers its blockchain in a spine-chilling formula called Traceability as a Service (TaaS). Given the state of privacy protection in the Middle Kingdom, it is not surprising that this company can be considered an expert in the field of tracking.   Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair hit the key technical resistance located at the level of $1,930 after a 19% rally from the last swing low. The intraday technical support is seen at the level of $1,777. The market conditions are extremely overbought on the H4 time frame chart, so please keep an eye on this level as the pull-back can haapen any time now.

US bank stress test results – 28/06 –  these stress tests couldn't be timelier given the meltdown in the US regional banking sector in March. In February the US central bank released its criteria which included a severe recession with stress in commercial and residential real estate markets, as well as corporate debt. One of the main criticisms of these tests was a lack of a scenario that factored in a sharp rise in interest rates which brought down Silicon Valley Bank as well as First Republic. Furthermore, US regional banks were not covered under the stress test scenario as they were considered too small and not systemically important enough. As recent experience in Europe has taught us and particularly in Spain where a large cohort of Spanish Cajas nearly brought the economy to its knees and resulted in a banking bailout, just because a bank is small doesn't mean it won't cause a financial meltdown if its troubles spread. The problems in US regional banks were well known at the time, however, there appears to have been a serial underestimation of the risks that a sharp rise in rates would have on some of the smaller parts of the US banking sector, none of which are covered by this week's stress test results.           Associated British Foods Q3 23 – 26/06 –  the recovery in the Associated British Foods share price since the 10-year lows posted back in October appears to have ground to a halt after hitting 15-month highs back in April, just before the release of its H1 results. H1 group revenues rose by 21% to £9.56bn, while adjusted profit before tax came in at £667m. sales across all ABF businesses were higher from the previous year, partly due to higher prices, while its Primark business which has seen an expansion in the US performing particularly well. The company is also hoping to expand its new UK click and collect scheme. On the various businesses Primark sales rose 19% to £4.23bn while margins came in at 8.3%. The various food businesses saw revenues rise to £5.33bn, a rise of 23%, with the ingredients business posting strong profit growth. On the outlook management warned that input costs are a priority, even as some have started to reduce, saying they expect adjusted operating profit in the food business to be ahead of last year. With respect to the Primark business management expressed concern about consumer spending holding up in the face of rising interest rates, and the higher cost of living. H2 margin is still expected to in line with H1 at 8.3%, while adjusted operating profit for the year is expected to be in line with last year.   Carnival Cruise Lines Q2 23 – 26/06 –  the travel and leisure sector has been one of the hardest hit from the Covid shutdowns, and the journey back for the cruise ship sector has taken longer than most, with the industry still struggling to turn a profit even as revenues start to return to pre-Covid levels. For Carnival the journey has been a long one given that in the first year of lockdowns annual revenues fell from $20.8bn in 2019 to a mere $1.9bn in 2021, with the industry undergoing a near death experience. Last year the company managed to turnover $12.17bn in revenue with management optimistic that the new fiscal year would see a return to normal for the first time in 4 years. In Q1 the company said that revenues came in at $4.43bn as losses narrowed to $690m, against a forecast of -$759.7m. On the outlook management said that cruises are well booked for the remainder of the year at higher prices, however, the higher cost of fuel and other costs is acting as a headwind. On annual EBITDA Carnival says it expects to see a figure of around $4bn, which includes a $500m impact from higher fuel prices. For Q2 revenues are expected to come in at $4.75bn while losses are expected to come in at -$0.35c a share. Annual revenues are expected to exceed pre-Covid levels this year. On the downside while total operating expenses are only forecast to rise modestly from $12.9bn to $13.8bn, interest expenses have surged from $206m in 2019 to over $2bn.        Walgreens Boots Alliance Q3 23 – 27/06 –  Walgreens share price has performed poorly year to date, the shares down over 10%. When the company reported in Q2 revenues slid by 3% to $34.9bn, although profits came in above expectations at $1.16c a share. In Q1 the company also posted profits of $1.16c a share, however this was wiped out by a $5.2bn provision in relation to litigation the company was required to pay for opioid related litigation after several US states alleged the retailer mishandled prescriptions by overprescribing. Walgreens has found that its business has suffered through a decline in footfall since the pandemic a situation that it has struggled to adapt to. It has invested into the provision of primary health care, paying $3.5bn towards the acquisition of Summit Health, by VillageMD, putting it near the top of the pack in primary care provision. Walgreens reaffirmed its full year earnings forecast of mid $4.55c a share. Q3 profits are expected to come in at $1.08c a share on revenues of $34.15bn.        Nike Q4 23 – 29/06 –  back in February Nike shares hit their highest levels in 10 months, but have slipped back since then, despite a significant pick-up in their Greater China business. When they reported in Q3, revenues came in at $12.39bn well above forecasts, however a bigger than expected build up in inventory served to drag on its margins which fell more than forecast to 43.3%. Inventory levels were 16% above the levels they were last year at $8.9bn, while their forecasts for Q4 were also relatively conservative, with an expectation of flat to low single digit revenue growth. Given the lacklustre nature of recent Chinese consumer spending even these forecasts could miss expectations, while Nike sales may have also taken a hit due to recent publicity over its new brand ambassador Dylan Mulvaney, and the company's recent advertising campaign. Q4 revenues are expected to come in at $12.57bn pushing annual revenues to a record $50.9bn, with direct to consumer expected to rise to $21bn. Annual gross margins are expected to slip back to 43.5%. Q4 profits are expected to come in at $0.66c a share.   

Euro-dollar at important support By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst |Swissquote Bank   The week started on a cautious note as stocks in Asia mostly sold off following a rough week in the US, where the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish pause triggered a fresh wave of worries that the rates would stay higher for longer. The US 2-year yield bounced lower after hitting 5.20%, yet the US 10-year continues its journey higher and hit 4.50% on Friday. The S&P500 slipped below its ascending base since last October, fell below its 100-DMA, and closed the week at the lowest levels since June, having recorded the worst performance over the week since the banking crisis in March. BoFA said that equity investors are dumping stocks at the fastest level since last December, and Morgan Stanley warned that stocks are now 'fragile'. Indeed! More fragile than the S&P500 are the rate sensitive technology stocks, and the small cap stocks. The growing divergence between the S&P500 and Russell 2000 index is also flashing 'recession', on top of the heavily inverted US yield curve.  Elsewhere, the UAW strikes will broaden to all GM and Stellantis parts plants in the US, which means that 5600 more workers will join the movement (Ford will likely be spared, for now, as some good progress is made on negotiations with the UAW) and the US will shut down by the end of the week if politicians fail to pass a dozen of bills. The latest US GDP update will fall in this chaotic environment, but the expectation is a positive revision from 2.1% to 2.3%.  In the currency markets, the US dollar extends gains. The dollar index entered the bullish consolidation zone after the Fed kept the possibility of another rate hike before the year ends on the table when it met last week, and said that the rates will likely stay higher for longer next year.   The EURUSD tested an important Fibonacci support last week, the major 38.2% retracement level which should distinguish between the positive trend building since last year, and a slide into the bearish consolidation zone. There is a stronger case for further euro weakness than the contrary. Released last Friday, the preliminary September PMI figures were mixed; the Eurozone manufacturing further slowed but German numbers hinted at some improvement. This week, we will see how the recent slowdown impacted the inflation dynamics in September. Headline inflation in the euro area is expected to have slowed from 5.2% to 4.5% this month, a slowdown that would defy the rising energy prices and the euro depreciation. Core inflation is seen softening from 5.3% to 4.8%. Any softness in inflation figures should give further support to the euro bears, while higher than expected numbers, which I believe could be the surprise of this week could revive the European Central Bank (ECB) hawks, but will hardly prevent the euro from seeking into a deeper depression, as further ECB action would also mean a bigger hit on economies. That's a fear that will likely keep euro bulls away from the market for now.  On the corporate calendar, Micron Technology and Nike will be releasing their latest quarterly results, and TotalEnergies Investor Day Event will gather happy industry players as US crude consolidates gains above $91pb with no big sign of a significant downside correction.  

The global financial markets have witnessed significant turbulence in recent times, with a confluence of factors contributing to this uncertainty. As we delve into the intricate web of market dynamics, we'll explore the implications of events such as Lego's surprising decision to abandon oil-free bricks, China's gold buying spree affecting bullion pricing, and Morgan Stanley's prediction that the Federal Reserve has paused its interest rate hikes. These developments, among others, have sent shockwaves through various sectors, leaving investors and analysts grappling with what lies ahead.   A Rollercoaster Week for US Stocks The past week saw US stocks experiencing their most challenging period since March, triggered by the Federal Reserve's update. Both the S&P and Nasdaq indexes retreated by 2.9% and 3.6%, respectively. This downturn in the market was mirrored globally, with the MSCI World Index recording a 2.67% slide, its sharpest decline since March. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index also suffered a substantial setback, losing 2.3%, positioning it for a 3% loss in the third quarter. These declines have sent shockwaves through the investment world, raising concerns about the overall health of the global economy.   Bond Yields and the Fed's Stance One of the key indicators of this market turbulence is the surge in 10-year US yields, marking their most substantial weekly rise since July. Over the last ten weeks, yields have risen in eight, and 10-year real yields have surpassed 2%. Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zenter has stated that the Federal Reserve is likely done with its rate hikes for the time being. These developments have left investors wondering about the impact on various asset classes and the broader economic landscape.   Earnings Reports to Watch As we navigate these turbulent financial waters, several earnings reports are on the horizon. Companies such as Costco, Cintas, Micron Technology, Jefferies, Nike, Accenture, BlackBerry, and Carnival Corporation are set to release their financial results. These reports will shed light on the performance and outlook of various sectors, providing critical insights into market trends.   Paradigm Shift in Bullion The bullion market is experiencing a paradigm shift driven by Chinese gold buying. This shift is having a profound impact on the pricing and demand for gold. Understanding this shift is crucial for investors and central banks alike, as gold has historically been a safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainty.   Thailand's Tech Investment Expectations Thailand is gearing up for substantial investments from tech giants like Tesla, Google, and Microsoft, with expectations totaling $5 billion, according to the Prime Minister. This influx of tech investment could transform the country's tech landscape and create opportunities for growth in the Southeast Asian region.   Lego's Surprising Decision In a surprising turn of events, Lego has decided to abandon its efforts to produce oil-free bricks. This move has garnered attention due to the increasing focus on sustainability and environmental responsibility in the corporate world. The implications of this decision go beyond just the toy industry, as it reflects broader concerns about the use of fossil fuels.   The recent market turbulence, influenced by various global factors, highlights the interconnectedness of the financial landscape. As we navigate these uncertain waters, staying informed about developments such as central bank policies, corporate decisions, and geopolitical events becomes increasingly critical. Investors and financial analysts must remain vigilant and adapt to changing market conditions to make informed decisions in these challenging times.

Asian stocks fell with US futures as yields on 10-year Treasuries reach a 16-year high above 4.54% while China Evergrande Group missed a debt payment adding to fears about the sectors massive debt pile. Broad dollar strength continues with the greenback trading at its highest level since December as another Fed member said another rate hike this year will be needed. Crude oil trades softer amid macroeconomic concerns and a stretched speculative long while gold holds support despite multiple headwinds. The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events. Equities: S&P 500 futures are under pressure this morning with the US 10-year yield hitting 4.55% extending its relentless move higher. If the US 10-year yield moves to 4.75% we will most likely begin seeing widening cracks in equities as the prevailing narrative of falling inflation collapses. Yesterday’s session saw no meaningful rotation between defensive and cyclical sectors. Today’s key events are US consumer confidence figures and Costco earnings tonight after the market close. FX: Higher Treasury yields, particularly in the long end, pushed the dollar higher to extend its gains. USDCHF rose to near 4-month highs of 0.9136 with immediate target at 0.9162 which is 0.382 retracement level. EURUSD broke below 1.06 support despite better-than-expected German Ifo. USDJPY attempted a move towards 149 with verbal intervention remaining lacklustre. AUD slipped on China woes while NZD and CAD were relative gainers, and the outperformer was SEK with the Riksbank starting its FX hedging today. Commodities: Crude trades lower for a second day with macroeconomic concerns, a stronger dollar and a stretched speculative long and easing refinery margin weighing on prices. Gold prices continue to defy gravity, holding above $1900 support with demand for stagflation protection offsetting the current yield and dollar surge. LME copper is trading at the widest contango (oversupply) since at least 1994 as inventories expand and China demand concerns persist. Wheat continues to face downward pressure from huge Russian harvest despite weather related downgrades in Australia. Fixed Income. The Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer message reverberates through higher long-term US Treasury yields. Unless there is a sign that the job market is weakening significantly or that the economy is slowing down quickly, long-term yields will continue to soar. With 10-year yields breaking above 4.5% and selling pressure continuing to mount through an increase in coupon supply, quantitative tightening, and waning foreign investors demand, it’s likely to see yields continue to rise until something breaks. This week, our attention turns to US PCE numbers and Europe CPI data while the US Treasury will sell 2-, 5- and 7-year notes. It will be interesting to see if investors buy the belly of the yield curve as a sign that they are preparing for a bull rather than a bear-steepening. Overall, we continue to favour short-term maturities and quality. Volatility: VIX Index still sits at around the 17 level, but the downward pressure in equity futures this morning could push the VIX much higher. This could be a cycle where the market tests the 20 level. Macro: Fed’s Goolsbee (voter) kept the door open for more rate hikes while emphasizing higher-for-longer. Moody’s warned of a protracted government shutdown saying that it could weigh on consumer confidence and markets. Meanwhile, after PMIs, Germany’s Ifo also showed a slight improvement in business outlook to 85.7 vs. 85.2 expected, while the previous was revised higher to 85.8. There were several ECB speakers once again. Lagarde largely repeated what was said at the ECB Press Conference, noting policy rates have reached levels that, maintained for a sufficiently long duration, will make a substantial contribution to the timely return of inflation to target. Schnabel said there is not yet an all-clear for the inflation problem. In the news: Interest rates will stay high 'as long as necessary,' the European Central Bank's leader says (Quartz), Teetering China Property Giants Undercut Xi’s Revival Push (Bloomberg), Russia dodges G7 price cap sanctions on most of its oil exports (FT), Global trade falls at fastest pace since pandemic (FT), Dimon Warns World Not Ready for 7% Fed Rate: Times of India via Bloomberg Technical analysis: S&P500 downtrend support at 4,328 & 4,200. Nasdaq 100 support at 14,687 &14,254. DAX downtrend support at 14,933. EURUSD below strong support, resuming downtrend to 1.05. GBPUSD downtrend strong support at 1.2175. Gold rangebound 1,900-1,950. Crude oil correction: WTI expect to 87.58. Brent to 80.62. US 10-year T-yields 4.55, uptrend but expect minor correction Macro events: US New Home Sales (Aug) exp 699k vs 714k prior (1400 GMT), US Consumer Confidence (Sep) exp 105.5 vs 106.1 prior. Speeches from Fed’s Bowman (voter) as well as ECB’s Lane, Simkus and Muller. Earnings events: Costco reports FY23 Q4 earnings (aft-mkt) today with estimated revenue growth of 8% y/y and EPS growth of 14% y/y. H&M reports FY23 Q3 earnings (bef-mkt) with estimated revenue growth of 7% y/y and EPS growth of 47% y/y. Micron Technology reports FY23 Q4 earnings (aft-mkt) with estimated revenue growth of -41% y/y and EPS of $-1.18 vs $1.37 a year ago. Accenture reports FY23 Q4 earnings (bef-mkt) with estimated revenue growth of 4% y/y and EPS unchanged from a year ago. Nike reports FY24 Q1 earnings (aft-mkt) with estimated revenue growth of 3% y/y and EPS growth of –20% y/y.

  Foot Locker Q3 24 – 29/11 – back in August Foot Locker shares plunged to a 10-year low, just below $15, after sliding to a loss in Q2 of $0.05c a share and falling short on revenues at $1.86bn. Inventory levels came in higher than expected, with signs of softening demand in July. The retailer also slashed its full profit outlook from between $2 and $2.25 to $1.30 and $1.50, as well as pausing the dividend. Since then, the shares have rebounded, helped by stronger numbers from the likes of sector peers like Nike and JD Sports, who own the Finish Line brand in the US. For Q3 revenues are expected to come in at $1.97bn while same store sales are expected to decline by 9.7%, while profits are forecast to plunge from $1.27c a share to $0.26c a share.