nasdaq 100

Market echoes

The US dollar index ticked higher yesterday, as the euro fell across board during ECB Lagarde's presser. But any further weakness in today's PCE numbers could limit the upside move in the dollar index and throw a floor under the EURUSD's weakness around the 200-DMA.

It would sure be absurd if the Fed started cutting the rates with such a strong underlying US economy before the ECB, which, in opposition, deals with a serious economic slowdown across the euro area. But the Fed doesn't (need to) decide based on other central banks' actions. As such, a possible earlier Fed cut could slow down the euro depreciation but should not stop it.

Meta (FB) Has Some Things To Worry About, Amazon (AMZN) And Ford (F) Ahead Of Publishing Their Reports

Netflix Stock Price Falls Down, Bitcoin - As Well, What About Nasdaq 100? - Swissquote's MarketTalk

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 21.01.2022 10:40
We saw a second day of gains then losses in major US indices. The stocks first rallied on the idea that the Federal Reserve (Fed) hawks may have gone ahead of themselves with the pricing of a 50bp rate hike in March, then gave in to the bad thoughts. Nasdaq was trading almost 2% higher when the wind turned direction abruptly, sending the index below its 200-DMA. Is this the beginning of a further dive? Possible… What’s sure is Netflix will feel the pinch of lower subscription growth forecast at the open as the stock price dived 20% in the afterhours trading. Zooming out. The Fed must fight back inflation because it’s gone just too far to threaten the economic health of the country, but they can’t do it with heavily hemorrhaging financial markets. Therefore, the idea of 50bp is certainly far stretched, and the corresponding pricing should be scaled back, which should give a certain relief to the risk assets in the coming sessions. But of course, the corporate earnings must be strong, as the actual Big Tech pricing reflects a fantastic earnings growth for the coming quarters, and investors won’t settle with anything less than fireworks. Elsewhere, Bitcoin fell below $40K on the back of an overall lack of risk appetite, and the news that Russia wants to ban the use and the mining of cryptocurrencies. Are they right, are they wrong and more importantly, are we mistaken on the potential purpose of use of cryptocurrencies? Brainstorm with me! Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:29 Netflix dives 20% after earnings announcement 2:40 Major US indices remain under selling pressure 6:59 Bitcoin falls below $40K on news Russia would ban cryptocurrencies 7:43 My way of seeing the future of cryptocurrencies (tell me yours!) Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.
Chart of the Week - Gold Miners vs Energy Producers - 20.04.2022

NAS100, SPX, EuroStoxx 50, Gold (XAUUSD), US Treasuries And More - "Financial Markets Today: Quick Take" – April 13, 2022

Saxo Strategy Team Saxo Strategy Team 13.04.2022 11:07
Macro 2022-04-13 08:25 6 minutes to read Summary:  Markets are waking up about where they left off yesterday, as a US equity market rally in the wake of slightly softer than expected core US inflation in March was reversed back to its starting point. Overnight, the New Zealand central bank hiked more than expected, but guided less hawkish, so NZD fell. The Bank of Canada is expected to beat the Fed to the punch today by hiking by 50 basis points for the first time since 2000.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - US equities tried to shift back to a positive stance yesterday in the wake of a slightly softer core CPI reading for March, but the rally was erased by the close, as attention is set to shift to earnings season which kicks off today in earnest. The Nasdaq 100 index has yet to break down through the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 13,831, a break of which could usher in a full test of the 12,942.5 low. The less yield-sensitive S&P 500 index is farther above its respective 61.8% retracement level (4,299) but posted a weak session to new local lows yesterday, even as sentiment has recovered again overnight. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI.I) and China’s CSI300 (000300.I) were little changed.  Energy and mining stocks outperformed.  China’s Ministry of Transport has issued a notice to local governments to urge the latter to keep highways in operation in areas affected by lockdowns.  China is also piloting in eight cities to reduce the number of days required for quarantine from 14 days to 10 days.  China reported better than expected March export data (+14.7% YoY in USD terms) while imports declined (-0.1% YoY in USD terms). Trade surplus increased to USD47.4 billion (vs consensus $21.7bln, Feb $30.6bln). Stoxx 50 (EU50.I) – the Stoxx 50 index snapped back from new local lows yesterday –emphasizing the importance of the 3,800 area support – and is fairly sideways overnight in the futures, a somewhat better performance than the major US averages, where a rally attempt yesterday was fully wiped out.  A weak euro certainly helps exporters, but energy/power prices continue to weigh on Europe’s economic outlook. EURUSD and EUR pairs  – the euro continues to trade heavily and EURUDS has nearly touched the lows for the cycle around near 1.0800. It was rather disappointing for bulls that the pair failed to get more support from a consolidation lower in US yields yesterday in the wake of the slightly cooler than expected core inflation reading (more below). The ongoing unease as Russia looks set to widen its offensive in eastern Ukraine and concerns that the ECB will remain dovish tomorrow perhaps weighing. The next major level lower is the 1.0636 level posted during the pandemic outbreak panic. USDCAD is at pivotal levels in the 1.2650 area, ... ...about the half-way point of the recent  price range and near the 200-day moving average ahead of today’s Bank of Canada meeting, which is expected to bring a 50-basis point rate hike (to take the policy rate to 1.00%), which would be the first rate hike of more than 25 bps since 2000. But with the Fed seen likely matching the Bank of Canada’s pace of tightening by year-end, the BoC may need to guide hawkish, or CAD may need to find more support from rising oil prices and improving risk sentiment broadly if it is to stage a rally against the US dollar. The technical situation certainly looks pivotal. Gold (XAUUSD) The advance in gold prices was a bit more impressive yesterday as the move higher above the key 1,966 area stuck, though the real challenge remains a bid to retake the psychologically important 2,000 level. The dip in treasury yields yesterday and weak risk sentiment in equities provided some of the boost. Crude oil (OILUKJUN22 & OILUSMAY22)  A solid comeback for oil prices yesterday, as WTI crude joined Brent in trading back above 100/bbl ahead of weekly US crude oil and product inventories from the DoE today. China moving to ease some of the Shanghai covid lockdowns may have boosted sentiment on the demand side. And longer-term supply concerns are in clear evidence as long-dated crude for December of 2023, trades within two dollars of the highest daily close for the cycle back in early March. US Treasuries (IEF, TLT) and European Sovereign Debt. Treasury traders took the slightest easing of the pace of core March US inflation as a signal for consolidation yesterday, as yields dropped all along the curve, and more so at the front end as the market perhaps figures that as long as the pace of inflation rises moderates, it can stop the constant upward adjustments to the perceived path of Fed policy tightening this year. A US 10-year treasury auction saw tepid demand yesterday. Today sees a 30-year T-bond auction. EU yields also eased lower yesterday from new cycle- and multi-year highs. What is going on? New Zealand’s RBNZ surprises with 50-basis point hike, but guides less hawkish.  The market was looking for a 25-basis point move to take the Official Cash Rate to 1.25%, but instead got 50 basis points and a 1.50% policy rate. The argument in the statement was that the bank saw it prudent to bring hiking forward to reduce the risks of rising inflation expectations. At the same time, the statement frets the slowing pace of global economic activity. After an initial spike higher on the impact of the larger than expected hike, the NZD traded lower in the wake of the decision as the 2-year NZ rate dropped some 15 basis points. AUDNZD also retains an upward bias given the demand in resource-rich Australian assets. Australia’s business data also continues to hold up for now, while New Zealand is facing deteriorating business sentiment and chronic labor shortage. UK Mar. CPI out this morning – hotter than expected.  UK March CPI hit +1.1% MoM and +7.0% YoY on the headline (vs. +0.8% /+6.7% expected) and +5.7% YoY (vs. +5.3% expected) for the core CPI reading Crowdstrike (CRWD) rose 3.2% on a Goldman Sach upgrade to buy. Crowdstrikeis the world’s biggest cybersecurity company. The analyst community also likes Crowdstrike  with 93% of analysts rating the stock as a buy. Goldman Sachs expects Crowdstrike’s shares to rise to $285 in a year. USDJPY refuses to drop below 125.  USDJPY dropped below 125 following the US CPI release overnight, focusing on the less-than-expected core print and the fall in US treasury yields. This morning, the pair is trading close to the near-20 year high of 125.86. The move was however reversed suggesting sustained weakness in the yen, which will continue until we see stronger action from the Japanese authorities and not just verbal intervention. The prospect of stagflation remains for Germany.  This is the main takeaway from the ZEW index released yesterday. The economic sentiment index decreased to minus 41.0 in April versus prior minus 39.3 while the current conditions index dropped to minus 30.8 versus prior minus 21.4. The ZEW experts are therefore pessimistic about the current economic situation, and they expect that it will continue to deteriorate. The only glimpse of hope is the decline in inflation expectations.  U.S. Inflation is still uncomfortably high.  March CPI hit 8.5 % year-over-year. This is the hottest annual pace since 1981. The pace of Core CPI rises moderated a bit at +0.3% month-on-month and + 6.5% year-on-year. This is still the hottest pace since 1982. On a year-on-year basis, the sharpest increases are : fuel oil (70 %), gas (48 %), used cars (35 %), hotels (29 %), airfare (24 %) and utility gas (22 %). You can find the full list here (scroll to pdf page 9). It is clear that the U.S. Federal Reserve is behind the curve. Expect a 50-basis point interest rate hike at the May FOMC meeting. What are we watching next? Ukraine war developments as new Russian offensive operations are underway in eastern Ukraine and US President Biden promised a new round of $750 million in military aid and said Russian leader Putin is guilty of genocide. Earnings Watch. The Q1 earnings season kicks off in earnest today week with US mega-bank JP Morgan Chase reporting today, but the more Main Street-oriented banks reporting in coming days, including the largest of these, Wells Fargo, tomorrow, will be interesting for a check-up on credit demand. The UK’s largest grocer Tesco is also worth watching for a sense of the impact of inflation on margins and customer behaviour as a cost-of-living crisis has hit a large portion of the UK population. Today: Tesco, JPMorgan Chase & Co, BlackRock, Fastenal Thursday: China Northern Rare Earth Group, Fast Retailing, Ericsson, UnitedHealth, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, US Bancorp, PNC Financial Services, Coinbase, State Street Friday: Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 1230 – US Mar. PPI 1400 – Canada Bank of Canada Rate Decision 1430 – US DoE Weekly Crude Oil and Product Inventories 1500 – Canada Bank of Canada’s Macklem press conference 1700 – US 30-year T-bond auction 2301 – UK Mar. RICS House Price Balance 0130 – Australia Mar. Employment Change / Unemployment Rate   Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app:    
Brent hits one-month high! Saudi and Russian cuts supporting recent moves

NASDAQ (IXIC) At Lowest Since September 2020, Bitcoin (BTC) Price Crash

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 13.06.2022 22:56
Summary: NASDAQ closed almost almost 4.7% down. Bitcoin prices reach lowest seen since december 2020. NASDAQ On Monday the US stock market fell into a bear market, the Nasdaq composite fell almost 4.7% during the trading day, reflecting a level not seen since September 2020. Investor sell-off sentiment is market wide, with the crypto market also tumbling as Bitcoin is more than 17% down. Investors are anxiously awaiting the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday as the market awaits the latest policy decision. IXIC Price Chart Bitcoin (BTC) Price sank in overnight trading Bitcoin prices sank in overnight trading, reaching low levels not seen since December 2020 in the wake of rising inflation reducing the demand for the world's largest cryptocurrency. The rising inflation, rising bond yields, the Federal Reserve’s signals of aggressive interest rate hikes and a stronger US Dollar are all factors that have combined in adding downwards pressure on crypto assets. Hence, even amidst wider crypto acceptance from governments all around the world to add or compliment Bitcoin into its national currencies. The price tumble of Bitcoin caused the cryptocurrency lender, Celsius Network to pause withdrawals from its deposit base due to what the group referred to as “extreme market conditions.” Binance quickly followed suit in the Monday session citing a 'stuck transaction' on the world's biggest crypto trading platform. Sources: finance.yahoo.com, thestreet.com
Behind Closed Doors: The Multibillion-Dollar Deals Shaping Global Markets

US Jobless Claims: Even More Than The Previous Year. PBOC Hopes CPI To Stay At 3%

Saxo Strategy Team Saxo Strategy Team 12.08.2022 09:03
Summary:  Another downside surprise in US inflation in the wake of lower energy prices lifted the equity markets initially overnight. However, sustained hawkishness from Fed speakers brought the yields higher, weighing on equities which closed nearly flat in the US. Crude oil prices made a strong recovery with the IEA boosting the global growth forecast for this year. EURUSD stayed above 1.0300 and will be eying the University of Michigan report today along with UK’s Q2 GDP. What is happening in markets?   Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I)  After rising well over 1% in early trading amid the weaker-than-expected PPI prints, U.S. equities wiped out gains and closed lower, S&P 500 -0.07%, Nasdaq 100 -0.65%. Energy stocks were biggest gainers, benefiting from a 2.6% rally in the price of WTI crude, Devon Energy (DVN:xnys) +7.3%, Marathon Oil (MRO:xnys) +7%, Schlumberger (SLB:xnys) +5.7%.  Consumer discretionary and technology were the biggest decliners on Thursday. Chinese ADRs gained, Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index climbed 2.6%.  U.S. treasuries bear steepened In spite of weaker-than-expected PPI data, U.S. long-end treasury yields soared, 10-year yields +10bps to 2.99%, 30-year yields +14bps to 3.17%. The rise in long-end yields were initially driven by large blocks of selling in the T-bond and Ultra-long contracts and exacerbated in the afternoon after a poor 30-year auction. The yield of 2-year treasury notes was unchanged and the 2-10-year yield curve steepened 10bps to minus 23bps.  Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIQ2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hong Kong and mainland Chinese equities surged, Hang Seng Index +2.4%, CSI300 Index +2.0%. Northbound inflows into A shares jumped to a 2-month high of USD1.9 billion. In anticipation of a 15% rise in the average selling price of Apple’s iPhone 14 as conjectured by analysts, iPhone parts supplier stocks soared in both Hong Kong and mainland exchanges, Q Technology (01478:xhkg) +17.7%, Sunny Optical (02382:xhkg) +9%, Cowell E (01415:xhkg) +4%, Lingyi iTech (002600:xsec) +10%. China internet names rebounded, Alibaba (09988:xhkg) +4.3%, Tencent (00700:xhkg) +2.7%, Meituan (03690:xhkkg) +4.0%, Baidu (09888:xhkg) +5.2%. Power tool and floor care manufacturer, Techtronic Industries (00669:xhkg) soared nearly 11% after reporting  a 10% year-on-year growth in both revenues and net profits in 1H22. The company rolled out a new generation of drill drivers that have embedded with machine learning algorithm. After collapsing 16% in share price yesterday, Longfor (00960) managed to stabilize and recover 5.7% following the company’s refutation of market speculation that it had failed to repay commercial papers due. EURUSD re-tested resistance levels EURUSD reclaimed the key 1.0300 on Thursday amid a softer dollar, and printed highs of 1.0364. While weaker-than-expected inflation prints in the US this week have curtailed dollar strength, it is hard for EURUSD to sustain gains amid the energy crisis and European recession concerns. A break below 1.0250 would be needed for EURUSD to reverse the trend, however. AUDUSD, likewise, trades above 0.7100 amid the risk on tone, but a turn lower in equities could reverse the trend. GBPUSD has been more range-bound around 1.2200 ahead of the Q2 GDP data scheduled to be released today, and EURGBP may be ready to break above 0.8470 resistance if the numbers come out weaker-than-expected. Crude oil prices (CLU2 & LCOV2) Crude oil prices gained further on Thursday amid signs of softer inflation, weaker dollar and improving demand. The International Energy Agency (IEA) lifted its consumption estimate by 380 kb/d, saying soaring gas prices amid strong demand for electricity is driving utilities to switch to oil. This could be aided by lower gasoline prices, which have dented demand during the US driving season. Prices fell below USD4/gallon for the first time since March. Meanwhile, OPEC may struggle to raise output in coming months due to limited spare capacity. WTI futures touched $94/barrel while Brent futures rose towards the 100-mark.   What to consider? Another downside surprise in US inflation US July PPI dipped into negative territory to come in at -0.5% MoM, much cooler than 1% last month or the +0.2% expected. But on a YoY basis, PPI remains up a shocking 9.8%. Core PPI rose 0.4% MoM, which means on a YoY basis core producer prices are up 7.6% (lower than June's +8.2% but still near record highs). Goods PPI fell 1.8%, dominated by a 9.0% drop in energy. Meanwhile, services PPI was up 0.1% in July. Despite the slowdown in both PPI and CPI this week, PPI is still 1.3% points above CPI, suggesting margin pressures and a possible earnings recession. Fed’s Daly said she will be open to a 75bps rate hike at the September meeting. US jobless claims rise, University of Michigan ahead US initial jobless claims 262K vs 265K estimate, notably higher than the 248k the prior week and the highest since November 2021. The 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims increased to 252K vs 247.5K last week, but still below 350k levels that can cause an alarm. The modest pickup in claims suggests that turnover at weaker firms is increasing. Key data to watch today is the preliminary University of Michigan survey for August, where expectations are for a modest improvement given lower gasoline prices. China’s central bank expects CPI to hover around 3% In its 2nd quarter monetary policy report released on Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) expects the CPI being at around 3% for the full year of 2022 and at times exceeding 3%.  The release of pend-up demand from pandemic restrictions, the upturn of the hog-cycle, and imported inflation, in particular energy, are expected to drive consumer price inflation higher for the rest of the year in China but overall within the range acceptable by the central bank.  The PBOC expects the recent downtrend of the PPI to continue and the gap between the CPI and PPI growth rates to narrow. The PBOC reiterates that it will avoid excessive money printing to spur growth so as to safeguard against inflation.  China’s President Xi is said to be visiting Saudi Arabia next week The Guardian reports that President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Saudi Arabia on an invitation extended from Riyadh in March.  China has been eager to secure its oil supply and explore the possibility of getting its sellers to accept the renminbi to settle oil trade.   While relying on the United States for security in a volatile region and supplies of weapons, Saudi Arabia with Prince Mohammed being in charge is looking for leverage in the kingdom’s relationship with the United States.  UK Q2 GDP likely to show a contraction The Q2 GDP in the UK is likely to show a contraction after April was down 0.2% and May up 0.5%. June GDP is likely to have seen a larger contraction given less working days in the month, as well as constrained household spending as inflation surged to a fresh record high. While there may be a growth recovery in the near-term, the Bank of England clearly outlined a recession scenario from Q4 2022 and that would last for five quarters. Our Macro Strategist Chris Dembik has painted a rather pessimistic picture of the UK economy.   For a week-ahead look at markets – tune into our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.   Source: APAC Daily Digest: What is happening in markets and what to consider next – August 12, 2022
USA: People Are Not Interested In Buying New Houses! Equities Are Still Trading High As The Hopes For Iran Nuclear Deal Are Still Alive

USA: People Are Not Interested In Buying New Houses! Equities Are Still Trading High As The Hopes For Iran Nuclear Deal Are Still Alive

Saxo Strategy Team Saxo Strategy Team 16.08.2022 14:00
Summary:  Equities traded higher still yesterday as treasury yields fell further back into the recent range and on hopes that an Iran nuclear deal will cement yesterday’s steep drop in oil prices. The latest data out of the US was certainly nothing to celebrate as the July US Homebuilder survey showed a further sharp drop in new housing interest and a collapse in the first regional US manufacturing survey for August, the New York Fed’s Empire Manufacturing.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) S&P 500 futures extended their gains yesterday getting closer to the 200-day moving average sitting around the 4,322 level. The US 10-year yield seems well anchored below 3% and financial conditions indicate that S&P 500 futures could in theory trade around 4,350. The news flow is light but earnings from Walmart later today could impact US equities should the largest US retailer lower their outlook for the US consumer. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI.I) and China’s CSI300 (000300.I) Hong Kong and mainland Chinese equities were mixed. CSI300 was flat, with electric equipment, wind power, solar and auto names gained. Hang Seng Index declined 0.5%. Energy stocks fell on lower oil price. Technology names were weak overall, Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH.I) declined 0.9%. Sunny Optical (02382:xhkg) reported worse than expected 1H22 results, revenues -14.4% YoY, net profits -49.5%, citing weakening component demand from the smartphone industry globally. The company’s gross margin plunged to 20.8% from 24.9%. Li Auto’s (02015:xhkg/LI:xnas) Q2 results were in line with expectations but Q3 guidance disappointed. The launch L9 seems cannibalizing Li ONE sales. USD: strength despite weak US data and falling treasury yields and strong risk sentiment Yesterday, the JPY tried to make hay on China cutting rates and as global yields eased back lower, with crude oil marked several dollars lower on hopes for an Iran nuclear deal. But the move didn’t stick well in USDJPY, which shrugged off these developments as the USD firmed further across the board, despite treasury yields easing lower, weak data and still strong risk sentiment/easy financial conditions. A strong US dollar is in and of itself is a tightening of financial conditions, however, and yesterday’s action has cemented a bullish reversal in some pairs, especially EURUSD and GBPUSD, where the next important levels pointing to a test of the cycle lows are 1.0100 and 1.2000, respectively. Elsewhere, USDJPY remains in limbo (strong surge above 135.00 needed to suggest upside threat), USDCAD has posted a bullish reversal but needs 1.3000 for confirmation, and AUDUSD is teetering, but needs a close back below 0.7000 to suggest a resurgent US dollar and perhaps widening concerns that a Chinese recession will temper interest in the Aussie. Crude oil Crude oil (CLU2 & LCOV2) trades lower following Monday’s sharp drop that was driven by a combination softer economic data from China and the US, the world’s top consumers of oil, and after Iran signaled a nuclear deal could be reached soon, raising the prospect of more Iranian crude reaching the market. The latest developments potentially reducing demand while adding supply forced recently established longs to bail and short sellers are once again in control. Brent needs to hold support at $93 in order to avoid further weakness towards $90. Focus on Iran news. Copper Copper (COPPERUSSEP22) led the metals pack lower, without breaking any key technical levels to the downside, after China’s domestic activity weakened in July. Meanwhile, supply side issues in Europe also cannot be ignored with surging power prices putting economic pressure on smelters, and many of them running at a loss. HG copper jumped 19% during the past month and yesterday’s setback did not challenge any key support level with the first being around $3.50/lb. BHP, the world’s top miner meanwhile hit record profits while saying that China is likely to offer a “tail wind” to global growth (see below). EU power prices hit record high on continued surge in gas prices ... threatening a deeper plunge into recession. The latest surge being driven by low water levels on Europe’s rivers obstructing the normal passage for diesel, coal, and other fuel products, thereby forcing utilities to use more gas European Dutch TTF benchmark gas futures (TTFMU2) has opened 5% higher at €231/MWh, around 15 times higher than the long-term average, suggesting more pain ahead for European utility companies. Next-year electricity rates in Germany (DEBYF3) closed 3.7% higher to 477.50 euros ($487) a megawatt-hour on the European Energy Exchange AG. That is almost six times as much as this time last year, with the price doubling in the past two months alone. UK power prices were also seen touching record highs. US Treasuries (IEF, TLT) see long-end yields surging. Yields dipped back lower on weak US economic data, including a very weak Empire Manufacturing Survey (more below) and another sharp plunge in the NAHB survey of US home builders, suggesting a rapid slowdown in the housing market. The survey has historically proven a leading indicator on prices as well. The 10-year benchmark dipped back further into the range after threatening to break up higher last week. The choppy range extends down to 2.50% before a drop in yields becomes a more notable development, but tomorrow’s US Retail Sales and FOMC minutes offer the next test of sentiment. What is going on? Weak Empire State manufacturing survey and NAHB Index Although a niche and volatile measure, the United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, compiled by the New York Federal Reserve, fell to -31.3 from 11.1 in July, its lowest level since May 2020 and its sharpest monthly drop since the early days of the pandemic. New orders and shipments plunged, and unfilled orders also declined, albeit less sharply. Other key areas of concern were the rise in inventories and a decline in average hours worked. This further weighed on the sentiment after weak China data had already cast concerns of a global growth slowdown earlier. Meanwhile, the US NAHB housing market index also saw its eighth consecutive monthly decline as it slid 6 points to 49 in August. July housing starts and building permits are scheduled to be reported later today, and these will likely continue to signal a cooling demand amid the rising mortgage rates as well as overbuilding. China's CATL plans to build its second battery factory in Europe CATL unveiled plans to build a renewable energy-powered factory for car battery cells and modules in Hungary. It will invest EUR 7.34 billion (USD 7.5bn) on the 100-GWh facility, which will be its second one in Europe. To power the facility CATL will use electricity from renewable energy source, such as solar power. At present, CATL is in the process of commissioning its German battery production plant, which is expected to roll out its first cells and modules by the end of 2022. Disney (DIS) shares rise on activist investor interest Daniel Loeb of Third Point announced a significant new stake in Disney yesterday, helping to send the shares some 2.2% higher in yesterday’s session. The activist investor recommended that the company spin off its ESPN business to reduce debt and take full ownership of the Hulu streaming service, among other moves. Elliott exits SoftBank Group The US activist fund sold its stake in SoftBank earlier this year in a sign that large investors are scaling back on their investments in technology growth companies with long time to break-even. In a recent comment, SoftBank’s founder Masayoshi Son used more cautious words regarding the investment company’s future investments in growth companies. BHP reports its highest ever profit, bolstered by coal BHP posted a record profit of $21.3bn supported by considerable gains in coal, nickel and copper prices during the fiscal year ending 30 June 2022. Profits jumped 26% compared to last year’s result. The biggest driver was a 271% jump in the thermal coal price, and a 43% spike in the nickel price. The world’s biggest miner sees commodity demand improving in 2023, while it also sees China emerging as a source of stable commodity demand in the year ahead. BHP sees supply covering demand in the near-term for copper and nickel. According to the company iron ore will likely remain in surplus through 2023. In an interview Chief Executive Officer Mike Henry said: Long-term outlook for copper, nickel and potash is really strong because of “unstoppable global trends: decarbonization, electrification, population growth, increasing standards of living,” What are we watching next? Australia Q2 Wage Index tonight to determine future RBA rate hike size? The RBA Minutes out overnight showed a central bank that is trying to navigate a “narrow path” for keeping the Australian economy on an “even keel”. The RBA has often singled out wages as an important risk for whether inflation risks becoming more embedded and on that note, tonight sees the release of the Q2 Wage Index, expected to come in at 2.7% year-on-year after 2.4% in Q1. A softer data point may have the market pulling back expectations for another 50 basis point rate hike at the next RBA meeting after the three consecutive moves of that size. The market is about 50-50 on the size of the RBA hike in September, pricing a 35 bps move. RBNZ set to decelerate its guidance after another 50 basis point move tonight? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to hike its official cash rate another 50 basis points tonight, taking the policy rate to 3.00%. With business and consumer sentiment surveys in the dumps in New Zealand and oil prices retreating sharply the RBNZ, one of the earliest among developed economies to tighten monetary policy starting late last year, may be set for more cautious forward guidance and a wait and see attitude, although wages did rise in Q2 at their second fastest pace (+2.3% QoQ) in decades. The market is uncertain on the future course of RBNZ policy, pricing 44 bps for the October meeting after tonight’s 50 bps hike and another 36 bps for the November meeting. US retailer earnings eyed After disappointing results last quarter, focus is on Walmart and Home Depot earnings later today. These will put the focus entirely on the US consumer after the jobs data this month highlighted a still-tight labor market while the inflation picture saw price pressures may have peaked. It would also be interesting to look at the inventory situation at these retailers, and any updated reports on the status of the global supply chains.   Earnings to watch Today’s US earnings focus is Walmart and Home Depot with analysts expecting Walmart to report 7% revenue growth y/y and 8% decline y/y in EPS as the US retailer is facing difficulties passing on rising input costs. Home Depot is expected to report 6% growth y/y in revenue and 10% growth y/y in EPS as the US housing market is still robust driving demand for home improvement products. Sea Ltd, the fast-growing e-commerce and gaming company, is expected to report revenue growth of 30% y/y in Q2 but worsening EBITDA margin at -16.2%. The previous winning company is facing headwinds in its gaming division and cash flow from operations have gone from positive $318mn in Q1 2021 to negative $724mn in Q1 2022. Today: China Telecom, Walmart, Agilent Technologies, Home Depot, Sea Ltd Wednesday: Tencent, Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing, Analog Devices, Cisco Systems, Synopsys, Lowe’s, CSL, Target, TJX, Coloplast, Carlsberg, Wolfspeed Thursday: Applied Materials, Estee Lauder, NetEase, Adyen, Nibe Industrier, Geberit Friday: China Merchants Bank, CNOOC, Shenzhen Mindray, Xiaomi, Deere Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0900 – Germany Aug. ZEW Survey 0900 – Eurozone Jun. Trade Balance 1200 – Poland Jul. Core CPI 1215 – Canada Jul. Housing Starts 1230 – US Jul. Housing Starts and Building Permits 1230 – Canada Jul. CPI 2030 – API Weekly Report on US Oil Inventories 2350 – Japan Jul. Trade Balance 0130 – Australia Q2 Wage Index 0200 – New Zealand RBNZ Official Cash Rate announcement 0300 – New Zealand RBNZ Governor Orr Press Conference  Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – August 16, 2022
Walmart And Home Depot Did Better Than Expected. S&P 500 Reaches The 4,3k Level

Walmart And Home Depot Did Better Than Expected. S&P 500 Reaches The 4,3k Level

Saxo Strategy Team Saxo Strategy Team 17.08.2022 08:35
Summary:  S&P500 index broke above the key 4,300 resistance level while the NASDAQ pushed lower amid mixed economic data and better-than-feared earnings from Walmart and Home Depot. US housing data continues to worsen, but the focus now turns to FOMC minutes due later today, as well as the US retail sales which will be next test of the strength of the US consumer. Asia session may have trouble finding a clear direction, but Australia’s wage price index and RBNZ’s rate hike may help to provide some bounce. What is happening in markets? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I)  U.S. equities were mixed. Tech names had an initial pullback, followed by short-coverings that narrowed the loss of the Nasdaq 100 to 0.23% at the close. S&P500 edged up 0.19% to 4,305 on better-than-feared results from retailers, moving towards its 200-day moving average (4,326). Walmart (WMT:xnys) and Home Depot (HD:xnys) reported Q2 results beating analyst estimates. Walmart gained 5% on strong same-store sales growth and a deceleration in inventory growth. Home Depot climbed 4% after reporting better than expected EPS and same-store sales but with an acceleration in inventory buildup. The declines in housing starts and building permits released on Monday and the downbeat comments about the U.S. housing market from the management of Compass (COMP:xnys), an online real estate brokerage, highlighted the challenges faced in the housing sector.  Short-end U.S. treasury yields rose as the long-end little changed The bigger than expected increases in July industrial production (+0.6% MoM), manufacturing production (+0.7% MoM), and business equipment production (+0.6%) triggered some selling in the short-end of U.S. treasury curve, pushing the 2-year yield 8 bps higher to 3.25% as 10-year yield edged up 1bp.  Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIQ2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) China internet stocks were sold off on Tuesday afternoon after Reuters ran a story suggesting that Tencent (00700:xhkg) plans to divest its 17% stake (USD24 billion) in Meituan (03690:xhkg).  The shares of Meituan collapsed 9% while Tencent gained 0.9%.  After the close of the Hong Kong market, Chinese media, citing sources “close to the matter” suggested that the divesture story is not true. However, the ADRs of Meituan managed to recover only 1.7% in New York trading. The newswire story also triggered selling on Kuaishou (01024:xhkg), -4.4%, which has Tencent as a major investor. The decline in internet stocks dragged the Hang Seng Index 1% lower. On the other hand, Chinese developers soared on another newswire report that state-owned China Bond Insurance is going to provide guarantees to new onshore debts issued by several “high quality” developers, including Country Garden (02007:xhkg) +9%, Longfor (00960:xhkg) +12%, CIFI (00884:xhkg) +12.9%, and Seazen (01030:xhkg) +7.6%.  Shares of Chinese property management services also surged higher.  GBPUSD bounced off the 1.2000 support, NZD eyeing RBNZ A mixed overnight session for FX as the US yields wobbled. Risk sentiment held up with the mixed US data accompanied by a less bad outcome in the US retailer earnings than what was expected. This made the safe-haven yen a clear underperformer, and USDJPY rose back above 134. But a clear trend in the pair is still missing and a break above 135 is needed to reverse the downtrend. Cable got lower to remain in close sight of the 1.2000 big figure, but rose above 1.2100 subsequently. UK CPI report due today may confirm the need for further BOE action after labor data showed wage pressures. NZDUSD remains near lows of 0.6320 but may see a knee-jerk higher if RBNZ surprises on the hawkish side. Crude oil prices (CLU2 & LCOV2) Crude oil prices remain under pressure due to the prospect of Iran nuclear deal, and printed fresh lows since the Ukraine invasion. Some respite was seen in early Asian session, and WTI futures were last seen at $87/barrel and Brent is below $93. The EU submitted a final proposal to salvage the Iran nuclear deal, and prospects of more energy supply are dampening the price momentum. It has been reported that Iran’s response was constructive, and they are now consulting with the US on a way ahead for the protracted talks. The API reported crude inventories fell by 448,000 barrels last week, while gasoline stockpiles increased by more than 4 million barrels. Government data is due later Wednesday. European Dutch TTF benchmark gas futures (TTFMU2) touched €250/MWh, but has cooled off slightly recently, but still signals the heavy price that Europe is paying for the dependence on Russian gas. Copper holding up well despite China slowdown concerns Despite reports of weaker financing and activity data from China earlier this week, Copper remains well supported and registered only modest declines. BHP’s results provided some offset, as did the supply side issues in Europe. Only a break below the key 350 support will turn the focus lower. Meanwhile, zinc rallied amid concerns of smelter closures in Europe. What to consider? US housing scare broadens, industrial production upbeat Housing starts fell 9.6% in July to 1.446 mn, well beneath the prior 1.599 mn and the expected 1.537 mn. Housing starts are now down for five consecutive months, and suggest a cooling housing market in the wake of higher borrowing costs and higher inflation. Meanwhile, building permits declined 1.3% in July to 1.674 mn from 1.696 mn, but printed above the expected 1.65 mn. There will be potentially more scaling back in construction activity as demand weakens and inventory levels rise. On the other hand, industrial production was better than expected at 0.6% m/m (prev: -0.2%) possibly underpinned by holiday demand but the outlook is still murky amid persistent inflation and supply chain issues. US retailer earnings come in better than feared Walmart (WMT:xnys) and Home Depot (HD:xnys) reported better-than-feared results on Tuesday. Walmart’s Q2 revenues came in at USD152.9 billion (+8.4% YoY, consensus USD150.5bn). Same-store sales increased 8.4% YoY (vs consensus +6.0% YoY).  EPS of USD1.77, down 0.8% from a year ago quarter but better than the consensus estimate of USD1.63. While inventories increased 25.5% in Q2, the rate of increase has moderated from the prior quarter’s +32.0%. The company cited falls in gas prices, market share gain in grocery, and back-to-school shopping key reasons behind the strength in sales.  Home Depot reported Q2 revenues of USD43.9 billion (vs consensus USD43.4bn), +6.5% YoY.  Same-store sales grew 5.8%, beating analyst estimates (+4.9%).  EPS rose 11.5% to $5.05, ahead of analyst estimates (USD4.95). However, inventories grew 38% YoY in Q2, which was an acceleration from the prior quarter. The management cited inflation and pulling forward inventory purchases given supply chain challenges as reasons for the larger inventory build-up. Target (TGT:xnys) is scheduled to report on Wednesday. Eyes on US retail sales US retail sales will be next test of the US consumer after less bad retailer earnings last night. Retail sales should have been more resilient given the lower prices at pump improved the spending power of the average American household, and Amazon Prime Day in the month possibly attracted bargain hunters as well. However, consensus expectations are modest at 0.1% m/m compared to last month’s 1.0%. A cooling labor market in the UK UK labor market showed signs of cooling as job vacancies fell for the first time since August 2020 and real wages dropped at the fastest pace in history. Unemployment rate was steady at 3.8%, and the number of people in employment grew by 160,000 in the April-June period as against 256,000 expected. There was also a sprinkle of good news, with the number of employees on payrolls rising 73,000 in July, almost triple the pace expected. Also, wage growth was strong at 4.7% in the June quarter from 4.4% in the three months to May, which may be key for the BOE amid persistent wage pressures. Australia Q2 Wage Index to determine future RBA rate hike size? The RBA Minutes out on Tuesday showed a central bank that is trying to navigate a “narrow path” for keeping the Australian economy on an “even keel”. The RBA has often singled out wages as an important risk for whether inflation risks becoming more embedded and on that note, today sees the release of the Q2 Wage Index, expected to come in at 2.7% year-on-year after 2.4% in Q1. A softer data point may have the market pulling back expectations for another 50 basis point rate hike at the next RBA meeting after the three consecutive moves of that size. The market is about 50-50 on the size of the RBA hike in September, pricing a 35bps move. RBNZ set to decelerate its guidance after another 50 basis point move today? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to hike its official cash rate another 50 basis points tonight, taking the policy rate to 3.00%. With business and consumer sentiment surveys in the dumps in New Zealand and oil prices retreating sharply the RBNZ, one of the earliest among developed economies to tighten monetary policy starting late last year, may be set for more cautious forward guidance and a wait and see attitude, although wages did rise in Q2 at their second fastest pace (+2.3% QoQ) in decades. The market is uncertain on the future course of RBNZ policy, pricing 45bps for the October meeting after today’s 50bps hike and another 37bps for the November meeting. FOMC minutes to be parsed for hints on future Fed moves The Federal Reserve had lifted rates by 75bps to bring the Fed Funds rate at the level that they consider is neutral at the July meeting, but stayed away from providing any forward guidance. Meeting minutes will be out today, and member comments will be watched closely for any hints on the expectation for September rate hike or the terminal Fed rate. The hot jobs report and the cooling inflation number has further confused the markets since the Fed meeting, even as Fed speakers continue to push against any expectations of rate cuts at least in ‘early’ 2023. We only have Kansas City Fed President Esther George (voter in 2022) and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (non-voter in 2022) speaking this week at separate events on Thursday, so the bigger focus will remain on Jackson Hole next week for any updated Fed views.   For a week-ahead look at markets – tune into our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.   Source: APAC Daily Digest: What is happening in markets and what to consider next – August 17, 2022
Apple May Surprise Investors. Analysts Advise Caution

Apple Supplier In China Closing Its Factories! Big European Aluminium Plant Stops Its Production Due To Unfavorable Conditions

Saxo Strategy Team Saxo Strategy Team 17.08.2022 12:53
  Summary:  The US equity market rally extended modestly yesterday, but turned tail upon the cash S&P 500 Index touching the key 200-day moving average at 4,325. Market today will eye the latest US Retail Sales report from July, which saw peak gasoline prices in the US mid-month, while the FOMC Minutes may prove a bit stale, given they were created before three weeks of the market rallying sharply and financial conditions easing aggressively, likely not the Fed’s intention.   What is our trading focus?   Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) S&P 500 futures broke above the 200-day moving average yesterday and then got rejected. Momentum in US equities got a bit more fuel from two good earnings releases from Home Depot and Walmart rising 4% and 5% respectively. S&P 500 futures are pushing higher again this morning and will likely attempt once more to break above the 200-day moving average. Long-term US interest rates are still well-behaved trading around the 2.8% level and the VIX Index has stabilised just below the 20 level. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI.I) and China’s CSI300 (000300.I) Hang Seng Index rallied 1% today, reversing yesterday’s loss. Meituan (03690:xhkg) bounced nearly 5% after its 9% drop yesterday due to a Reuters story suggesting that Tencent (00700:xhkg) plans to divest its 17% stake (USD24 billion) in Meituan.  Tencent denied such a divesture plan last night.  Power drills and floor care equipment maker and a supplier to Home Depot (HD:xnys), Techtronic Industries (00669:xhkg) jumped more than 7% after better-than-expected results from Home Depot overnight.  On Tuesday, China’s Premier Li Keqiang held a video conference with provincial chiefs from Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Henan, and Sichuan to reiterate the central government’s push for full use of policies to stabilize the economy.  CSI300 gained 0.6%. USD pairs, including GBPUSD, which bounced strongly off 1.2000 support  A mixed overnight session for FX as the US yields wobbled. Risk sentiment held up with the mixed US data accompanied by a less bad outcome in the US retailer earnings than expected. This made the safe-haven yen a clear underperformer, and USDJPY rose back above 134. But a clear trend in the pair is still missing and a break above 135 is needed to reverse the downtrend. Cable teased key psychological support at 1.2000 yesterday before rising later in the day above 1.2100 ahead of today’s UK CPI report, which may confirm the need for further BOE action after labor data showed wage pressures. EURUSD bounced from session lows at 1.0123 but has posted a recent bearish reversal that keeps the focus lower, particularly on any breakdown through 1.0100, the multi-week range low. USD traders will focus on today’s US Retail Sales and FOMC minutes. USDCNH – there was a brief spike higher in USDCNH earlier this week as China moved to stimulate with a small 10-basis point rate cut of the key lending rate – no drama yet, but traders should keep an eye on this very important exchange rate for larger volatility and significant break above 6.80, as Chines exchange rate policy shifts can provoke significant moves across markets. Crude oil (CLU2 & LCOV2) touched a fresh six-month low on Tuesday with Brent trading lower, in anticipation of the Iran nuclear deal being revived, before bouncing in response to the API reporting a draw in crude oil and especially gasoline stocks. While a deal with Iran could see it raise production by around one million barrels per day, Goldmans talks about a mutually beneficial stalemate for both sides with Iran wanting to avoid sanctions while the US wants to avoid higher oil prices but also the political backlash from a potential deal. EIA’s weekly crude and fuel stocks report on tap later with the market also focusing on gasoline demand and the levels of exports. Over in Europe meanwhile the Dutch TTF benchmark gas trades near an eye-popping $400 per barrel crude oil equivalent, a level that will continue to attract demand for oil-based products due to switching. Copper (COPPERUSSEP22) continues to trade within its established upward trending range after China’s Premier Li Keqiang asked local officials from six provinces to bolster pro-growth measures after weaker financing and activity data were reported earlier this week. In addition, copper is also enjoying some tailwind from rising zinc and aluminum prices after Europe's largest smelters said it would halt production and after producers in China were told to curb production in order to preserve electricity supply during the current heatwave. HG copper’s trading range has narrowed to between $3.585, the uptrend from the July low and $3.663 the 50-day moving average.   What is going on?   US housing scare broadens, industrial production upbeat US Housing starts fell 9.6% in July to an annualized 1,446k, well beneath the prior 1,599 and the expected 1,537k. Housing starts are now down for five consecutive months, and suggest a cooling housing market in the wake of higher borrowing costs and higher inflation. Meanwhile, building permits declined 1.3% in July to 1,674k from 1,696, but printed above the expected 1,650k. There will be potentially more scaling back in construction activity as demand weakens and inventory levels rise. On the other hand, industrial production was better than expected at 0.6% m/m (prev: -0.2%) in July, possibly underpinned by holiday demand but the outlook is still murky amid persistent inflation and supply chain issues. UK headline inflation hits 10.1% The highest in decades and above the 9.8% expected and for the month-on-month reading of +0.6%, higher than the +0.4% expected. Core inflation hit 6.2% vs. 5.9% expected and 5.8% in Jun. That matched the cycle high from back in April. Retail inflation rose +0.9% MoM and +12.3% YoY vs. +0.6%/+12.0% expected, respectively. The Bank of England has forecast that inflation will peak out this fall at above 13%. Reserve Bank of New Zealand hikes 50 basis points to 3.00%, forecasts 4% policy rate peak The RBNZ both increased and brought forward its peak rate forecast to 4.00%, a move that was actually interpreted rather neutrally – more hawkish for now, but suggesting that the RBNZ would like to pause after achieveing 4.00%. 2-year NZ rates were unchanged later in the session after a brife poke higher. RBNZ Governor warned in a press conference that New Zealand home prices will continue to fall. This is actually a desired outcome after a huge spike in housing speculation and prices due to low rates from the pandemic response and massive pressure from a Labor-led government that had promised lower housing costs were behind the RBNZ’s quick pivot and more aggressive hiking cycle in 2021. Walmart shares rally on improved outlook The largest US retailer surprised on both revenue and earnings in its Q2 report with most of the revenue growth coming from higher prices and not volume. The retailer now sees an EPS decline of 9-11% this fiscal year compared to previously 11-13% suggesting input cost pressures are easing somewhat. Walmart is seeing more middle and high-income customers and the retailer has also cancelled orders for billions of dollars to lower inventory levels suggesting global supply chains are improving. Walmart shares were up 5%. Home Depot still sees robust market The largest US home improvement retailer beat on revenue and earnings yesterday in its Q2 results with Q2 comparative sales up 5.8% vs est. 4.6% highlighting that volumes are falling as revenue growth is below inflation rates. The US housing market figures on housing starts and permits cemented that the US housing market is slowing down due to the recent rally in mortgage rates. Home Depot is taking a conservative approach to guidance, but the market nevertheless pushed shares 4% higher. Apple supplier Foxconn suspends its factory in Chengdu due to a power crunch Foxconn’s Chengdu factory is suspending operations for six days from August 15 to 20 due to a regional power shortage. The suspension is affecting Foxconn’s supply of iPad to Apple. The company says the impact “has been limited at the moment” but it may affect shipments if the power outage persists. The Chengdu government is imposing power curbs on industrial users to ensure electricity supply for the city’s residents. At the same time, Foxconn has started test production of the Apple watch in its factories in Vietnam. With the passage of CHIPS and Science Act earlier this month in the U.S., there have been speculations that Taiwanese and Korean chipmakers and their customers may be accelerating the building up of production capacity away from China. Big European aluminium plant to halt production Norsk Hydro’s aluminium plant in Slovakia is halting primary production by end of September due adverse conditions such as elevated electricity prices. The aluminium company would incur significant financial losses should it continue its operations.   What are we watching next?   Eyes on US retail sales today  US retail sales will be next test of the US consumer after less bad retailer earnings last night. Retail sales should have been more resilient given the lower prices at pump improved the spending power of the average American household, and Amazon Prime Day in the month possibly attracted bargain hunters as well. However, consensus expectations are modest at 0.1% m/m compared to last month’s 1.0%. FOMC minutes to be parsed for hints on future Fed moves The Federal Reserve had lifted rates by 75bps at the late July meeting to bring the Fed Funds rate to a level they have previously considered neutral, but stayed away from providing any forward guidance. The minutes of that July meeting are to be released later today, and member comments will be watched closely for any hints on the expectation for September rate hike or the terminal Fed rate. The hot July US jobs report and the cooling July inflation number, as well as a blistering three week rally in equity markets have further confused the markets since the Fed meeting, even as Fed speakers continue to push against any expectations of rate cuts as soon as ‘early’ 2023. The next chief focus for Fed guidance will remain on the Fed’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming symposium next week. Earnings to watch Today’s European earnings focus is Carlsberg and Coloplast with the former reporting strong first-half organic growth of 20.7% vs est. 15.5% suggesting breweries are seeing healthy volume and price gains. Tencent is the key focus in Asia and especially given the recent developments in China on anti-monopoly laws and its decision to divest its $24bn stake in Meituan. In the US the focus will be on Cisco which saw its growth grinding to a halt in the previous quarter. Wednesday: Tencent, Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing, Analog Devices, Cisco Systems, Synopsys, Lowe’s, CSL, Target, TJX, Coloplast, Carlsberg, Wolfspeed Thursday: Applied Materials, Estee Lauder, NetEase, Adyen, Nibe Industrier, Geberit Friday: China Merchants Bank, CNOOC, Shenzhen Mindray, Xiaomi, Deere Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0900 – Eurozone Q2 GDP Estimate 1230 – US Jul. Retail Sales 1430 – US Weekly Crude Oil and Product Inventories 1800 – US FOMC Minutes 1820 – US Fed’s Bowman (Voter) to speak 2110 – New Zealand RBNZ Governor Orr before parliamentary committee 0130 – Australia Jul. Employment Change (Unemployment Rate)   Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher   Source: Has The Best Main Interest Rate In 7 Years
Summer's End: An Anxious Outlook for the Global Economy

Crypto Market Is Dependent On Stock Market. The Correlation Between Nasdaq 100 And BTC

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 17.08.2022 15:27
Michael Burry is a well-known US investor who became famous for betting on the collapse of the US real estate market and the burst of the bubble in 2008. On 15 August, he filed a 13F form with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), revealing the positions of his fund, Scion Asset Management. To the surprise of many, the investment portfolio turned out to be almost completely empty. Burry held shares worth 165 million at the end of the first quarter. These included companies such as Google, Meta and Stellantis. However, the latest report filed with the regulator revealed that all of it had been sold and the glorified investor's only long position is in GeoGroup, a company involved in running private prisons, but the value of the position is negligible at just under $3.31 million. The investor has recently been posting a number of tweets suggesting the end of the bear market rally. This has sent shock waves across the market, as the investment manager has usually been successful in predicting the market moves, famous for his incisiveness. If there were to be large declines in the broad traditional market, e.g. equities, what could this mean for crypto? The correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq 100 seems to be apparent, but after the last all-time high reading of 0.84 in May, it dropped to around 0.48 at the end of June. What is unfortunate, however, is that the correlation has been rising with subsequent waves of declines and peaked near local lows. If the stock market were to actually experience a crash, a strong reaction from the crypto market can be expected. The recent increase in correlation may be due to the increasing participation of token trading institutions. Michael Burry's attitude was addressed by Mati Greenspan CEO of Quantum Economic, stating that predicting the timing and scale of a crash is almost impossible. "Predicting a stock crash is a lot like predicting an earthquake. You know one will happen every so often but you can never tell exactly when or how severe it will be" - Greenspan said. On the Conotoxia MT5 platform, BTC is seeing its fourth day of decline, losing more than 0.7% at 10:30 GMT+3, while ETH is gaining less than 0.3%, drawing its first upward candle in three days. Rafał Tworkowski, Junior Market Analyst, Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.   Source: Michael Burry closed almost all his positions - what could another stock market crash mean for crypto?
US: Drivers Demand Of Oil The Highest This Year! Silver Lost Almost The Half Of Its Recent Gaines

US: Drivers Demand Of Oil The Highest This Year! Silver Lost Almost The Half Of Its Recent Gaines

Saxo Strategy Team Saxo Strategy Team 18.08.2022 10:50
Summary:  US equities traded a bit lower yesterday after the S&P 500 challenged the 200-day moving average from below the prior day for the first time since April in the steep comeback from the June lows. Sentiment was not buoyed by the FOMC minutes of the July meeting suggesting the Fed would like to slow the pace of tightening at some point. Crude oil rose from a six-month low on bullish news from the US and OPEC.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) S&P 500 futures rolled over yesterday wiping out the gains from the two previous sessions and the index futures are continuing lower this morning trading around the 4,270 level. US retail sales for July were weak and added to worries of the economic slowdown in real terms in the US. The 10-year yield is slowing crawling back towards the 3% level sitting at 2.87% this morning. A move to 3% and potentially beyond would be negative for equities. The next levels to watch on the downside in S&P 500 futures are 4,249 and then 4,200 Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI.I) and China’s CSI300 (000300.I) Shares in the Hong Kong and mainland China markets declined. China internet stocks were weak across the board with Tencent (00700:xhkg) +2.7% and Meituan (03690:xhkg) +1%, being the positive outliers. Tencent reported a revenue decline of 3% y/y in Q2, weak, but in line with market expectations. Non-GAAP operating profit was down 14% y/y to RMB 36.7bn, and EPS fell 17% y/y to RMB 2.90 but beating analyst estimates. Revenues from advertising at -18% y/y were better than expected. In the game segment, weaker mobile game revenues were offset by stronger PC game revenues. Beer makers outperformed China Resources Beer (00291:xhkg) +3.8%, Tsingtao Brewery (00168:xhkg) +1.7%. COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (01138:xhkg) made a new high at the open on strong crude oil tanker freight rates before giving back some gains. USD pairs as the USD rally intensifies The US dollar rally broadened out yesterday, as USDJPY retook the 135.00 area, but needs to follow through above 135.50-136.00 to take the momentum back higher. Elsewhere, AUDUSD has broken down again on the move down through 0.7000 and USDCAD has posted a bullish reversal, needing 1.3000 for more upside confirmation. The GBPUSD pair looks heavy despite a massive reset higher in UK rates in the wake of recent UK inflation data, with a close below 1.2000 indicating a possible run on the sub-1.1800 lows, while EURUSD is rather stuck tactically, as price has remained bottled up above the 1.0100 range low. USDCNH, as discussed below, may be a key pair for whether the USD rally broadens out even more aggressively, and long US treasury yields and risk sentiment are other factors in the mix that could support the greenback, should the 10-year US treasury benchmark move higher toward 3.00% again or sentiment roll over for whatever reason. Certainly, tightening USD liquidity could prove a concern for sentiment as the Fed turns up the pace of quantitative tightening – something it seems behind schedule in doing if we look at the latest weekly Fed balance sheet data.  USDCNH The exchange rate edged higher again to above 6.80 overnight after a brief spike higher earlier this week as China’s PBOC moved to stimulate with a small 10-basis point rate cut of the key lending rate. There is no real drama in the exchange rate yet after the significant rally this spring from below 6.40 to 6.80+, but traders should keep an eye on this very important exchange rate for larger volatility and significant break above 6.83, as China’s exchange rate policy shifts can provoke significant volatility across markets. Crude oil Crude oil (CLU2 & LCOV2) bounced from a six-month low on Wednesday in response to a bullish US inventory report that saw big declines in gasoline and crude oil stocks as demand from US motorist climbed to the highest this year while crude exports reached a record $5 million barrels per day. The prospect for an Iran nuclear deal continues to weigh while OPEC’s new Secretary-General said spare capacity was becoming scarce. US strategic reserves are now at the lowest level since 1985 and the government has by now sold around 90% of what was initially offered in order to bring down prices. While demand concerns remain a key driver for macroeconomic focused funds selling crude oil as a hedge we notice a renewed surge in refinery margins, especially diesel, supported by increased demand from gas-to-fuel switching Gold and silver Gold has so far managed to find support at $1759, the 38.2% retracement of the July to August bounce, after trading weaker in response to a stronger dollar and rising yields. Silver (XAGUSD) meanwhile has almost retraced half of its recent strong gains with focus now on support at $19.50. The latest driver being the FOMC minutes which signaled ongoing interest-rate hikes and eventually at a slower pace than the current. The short-term direction has been driven by speculators reducing bullish bets following a two-week buying spree in the weeks to August 9 which lifted the net by 63k lots, the strongest pace of buying in six months. ETF holdings meanwhile have slumped to a six-month low, an indication investor, for now, trusts the FOMC’s ability to bring down inflation within a relatively short timeframe   What is going on? Financial conditions are tightening, if modestly. Recent days have brough a rise in short US treasury yields, but more importantly it looks as though some of the risk indicators like corporate credit spreads may have bottomed out here after a sharp retreat from early July highs – one Bloomberg high yield credit spreads to US treasuries peaked out above 5.75% and was as low as 4.08% earlier this week before rising to 4.19% yesterday, with high yield bond ETFs like HYG and JNK suffering a sharp mark-down yesterday of over a percent. Factors that could further aggravate financial conditions include a significant CNH weakening, higher US long treasury yields (10-year yield moving back toward 3.00%, for example) or further USD strength. Adyen sees margin squeeze. One of Europe’s largest payment companies reports first-half revenue of €609mn vs est. €615mn despite processed volume came significantly above estimates at €346bn suggesting the payments industry is experiencing pricing pressures. Cisco outlook surprises. The US manufacturer of networking equipment surprised to the upside on both revenue and earnings in its fiscal Q4 (ending 30 July), but more importantly, the company is guiding revenue growth in the current fiscal quarter of 2-4% vs est. -0.2% and revenue growth for the current fiscal year of 4-6% vs est. 3.3%. Cisco said that supply constraints are beginning to ease and that customer cancellations are running below pre-pandemic levels, and that the company’s growth will be a function of availability. Stale FOMC minutes hint at sustained restrictive policy, but caution on pace of tightening. Fed’s meeting minutes from the July meeting were released last night, and officials agreed to move to restrictive policy, with some noting that restrictive rates will have to be maintained for some time to bring inflation back to the 2% target. Still, there was also talk of slowing the pace of rate hikes ‘at some point’, despite pushing back against easing expectations for next year. The minutes were broadly in-line with the market’s thinking, and lacked fresh impetus needed to bring up the pricing of Fed’s rate hikes. Chairman Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium next week will be keenly watched for further inputs. US retail sales were a mixed bag. July US retail sales were a little softer at the headline level than the market expected (0% growth versus the +0.1% consensus) but the ex-auto came in stronger at 0.4% (vs. -0.1% expected). June’s growth was revised down to 0.8% from 1%. The mixed data confirmed that the US consumers are feeling the pinch from higher prices, but have remained resilient so far and that could give the Fed more room to continue with its aggressive rate hikes. Lower pump prices and further improvements in supply chain could further lift up retail spending in August. The iron ore miners are resilient despite price pressures Despite China planning more fiscal stimulus to fund infrastructure investment, the iron ore (SCOA, SCOU2) price paired back 8% this week, retreating to its lowest equal level in five weeks at $101.65, a level the iron ore price was last at in December 2021. Since March, the iron ore price has retreated 37%, with the most recent pull back being fueled by concerns China’s Covid cases are surging again with cases at a three-month high, as the outbreak worsens in the tropical Hainan province. Despite iron ore pulling back, shares in iron ore majors like BHP, remain elevated, up off their lows, with BHP’s shares trading 14% up of its July low, and moving further above its 200-day moving average, on hopes of commodity demand picking up. What are we watching next? Norway’s central bank guidance on further tightening. The Norges Bank is expected to hike 50 basis points today to take the policy rate to 1.75% despite an indication from the bank in June that the bank would prefer to shift back to hiking rates by 25 basis points, as a tight labour market and soaring inflation weigh. The path of tightening for the central bank has been an odd one, as it was the first G10 bank to actually hike rates in 2021, but finds itself with a far lower policy rate than the US, for example, which started much later with a faster pace of hikes. But NOK may react more to the direction in risk sentiment rather than guidance from the Norges Bank from here, assuming no major surprises. The EURNOK downtrend has slowed of late – focusing on 10.00 if the price action continues to back up. Japan’s inflation will surge further. Japan’s nationwide CPI for July is due on Friday. July producer prices came in slightly above expectations at 8.6% y/y (vs. estimates of 8.4% y/y) while the m/m figure was as expected at 0.4%. The continued surge reflects that Japanese businesses are grappling with high input price pressures, and these are likely to get passed on to the consumers, suggesting further increases in CPI remain likely. More government relief measures are likely to be announced, while signs of any Bank of Japan pivot away from its low rates and yield-curve-control policy are lacking. Bloomberg consensus estimates are calling for Japan’s CPI to accelerate to 2.6% y/y from 2.4% previously, with the ex-fresh food number seen at 2.4% y/y vs. 2.2% earlier.   Earnings to watch In Europe this morning, the key earnings focus is Adyen which has already reported (see review above) and Estee Lauder which is deliver a significant slowdown in figures and increased margin pressure due to rising input costs. Today’s US earnings to watch are Applied Materials and NetEase, with the former potentially delivering an upside surprise like Cisco yesterday on improved supply chains. NetEase, one of China’s largest gaming companies, is expected to deliver Q2 revenue growth of 12% y/y as growth continues to slow down for companies in China. Today: Applied Materials, Estee Lauder, NetEase, Adyen, Nibe Industrier, Geberit Friday: China Merchants Bank, CNOOC, Shenzhen Mindray, Xiaomi, Deere Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0800 – Norway Deposit Rates 0900 – Eurozone Final Jul. CPI 1100 – Turkey Rate Announcement 1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 1230 – Canada Jul. Teranet/National Bank Home Price Index 1230 – US Philadelphia Fed Survey 1400 – US Jul. Existing Home Sales 1430 – EIAs Weekly Natural Gas Storage Change 1720 – US Fed’s George (Voter) to speak 1745 – US Fed’s Kashkari (Non-voter) to speak 2301 – UK Aug. GfK Consumer Confidence 2330 – Japan Jul. National CPI Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher   Source: Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – August 18, 2022
The US PCE Data Is Expected To Confirm Another Modest Slowdown

Fed Reptesentatives Are Committed To Holding Back Price Growing And Control The Inflation According To Expectations

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 18.08.2022 13:17
Last night's publication of the minutes of the last Fed meeting, which took place at the end of July, may have affected the US dollar's trading. The policymakers touched on the regulation of the digital asset market for the first time at such a meeting. According to the published minutes, Fed officials remain very attentive to inflation risks and are committed to lowering price growth and keeping inflation expectations under control. A commitment to tightening monetary policy can take place, even if it comes at the expense of economic growth, the FOMC minutes show. The July discussion touched on the possible risks of too many and too large interest rate hikes. There was also talk that the Fed may be pursuing too much restrictive monetary policy than is necessary to restore price stability in the economy. The Fed, for the moment, seems unconcerned about GDP data and the risk of a sustained slowdown or official recession, as officials said the economy is stable for now, pointing to strong job growth, a low unemployment rate and elevated wage growth. Moreover, there was also discussion of the possibility of a later upward revision of earlier GDP readings, which are revised over time. There was also a statement regarding possible further action by the Federal Reserve. Policymakers discussed the possibility of slowing the pace of interest rate hikes at some point, but this will require data readings that can be considered satisfactory in terms of the impact of current hikes on slowing inflation. Meanwhile, for the moment, it may be crucial to maintain a restrictive stance to avoid a loosening of inflation expectations. Initially, after the release of the minutes, the EUR/USD exchange rate rose to 1.0200, before retreating to the region of 1.0150 this morning. The reaction thus appears to be mixed, without leading to a major impulse, and the exchange rate of the main currency pair has remained in consolidation since the morning of August 16. On Wall Street, on the other hand, indexes were down after the publication. The S&P500 fell 0.3 percent and the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.6 percent. The committee also turned its attention to the world of digital assets. Participants recognized the growing importance of digital assets and their increasing interconnectedness with other segments of the financial system, underscoring the need to establish a robust supervisory and regulatory framework for the sector to adequately mitigate potential systemic risks. Several participants mentioned the need to strengthen supervision and regulation of certain types of non-bank financial institutions, according to published minutes. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.   Source: Highlights from the Fed minutes
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Price Analysis: The Oil Price Has Corrected And Dropped

Crude Oil Price Probably Not Reach 100$(USD) Shortly

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 18.08.2022 15:56
The equity rally in the US didn’t pick up momentum after the Federal Reserve (Fed) released its latest meeting minutes, which sounded more hawkish-than-expected, or more hawkish-than-what-was-needed-to-give-another-boost to the US stock markets. The biggest take was that the Fed will continue tightening its policy until it sees that inflation is ‘firmly on path back to 2%’. The S&P500 fell 0.72% as Nasdaq gave back 1.20%, although the jump in the US 2-year yield was relatively soft, and the Fed funds futures scaled back the expectation of a 75 bp hike in the next meeting. Crude price completed an ABCD pattern, and it is more likely than not we see the price rebound to the $100 level in the medium run. In China, Tencent announced its first ever revenue drop as government crackdown continued taking a toll on its sales, and the pound couldn’t gain even after the above 10% inflation data boosted the Bank of England (BoE) hawks and the call fall steeper rate hikes to tame inflation in the UK. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:28 As expected, Fed minutes were more hawkish-than-expected 3:39 Crude oil has more chance to rebound than to fall 6:02 Tencent posts first-ever revenue drop 7:14 Apple extends gains, but technicals warn of correction 8:38 Pound unable to extend gains despite rising Fed hawks’ voices Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Fed #FOMC #minutes #USD #GBP #inflation #Tencent #Alibaba #earnings #crude #oil #natural #gas #coal #futures #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH
The GBP/USD Pair's Traders Still Use Every Opportunity To Buy

UK Inflation Is The Highest In Decades!!! China Still Closing Factories, Toyota And Apple Are In Danger?

Saxo Strategy Team Saxo Strategy Team 18.08.2022 09:48
Summary:  U.S. equities took a pause from their week-long advance, with S&P 500 retreating before its 200-day moving average. Target’s Q2 results disappointed as the retailer suffered from high inventories and U.S. consumers shifted from discretionary to grocery items. What is happening in markets? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I)  U.S.’s advance higher took a pause yesterday amid higher bond yields and disappointing results from Target (TGT:xnys), -2.7%. Target’s Q2 earnings fell sharply and missed consensus expectations on weaker gross margins due to slower sales in discretionary items and inventory impairments.  Lowe’s (LOW:xnys) reported mixed results, with earnings beating estimates but same-store sales growth weaker than expected. Higher U.S. bond yields triggered by a dramatic rise in U.K. bond yields and reported pension fund rebalancing-related selling added to the equity weakness.  S&P 500 dropped 0.7% and Nasdaq 100 shed 1.2%.  U.S. treasury yields rose from spilling over from a massive rise in U.K. Gilt yields and weak 20-year bond auction U.S. 10-year treasury yields jumped 9bps to 3.05%, taking cues from the sharp move higher in U.K. Gilts and European sovereign bond yields following white-hot UK CPI data. Long-end yields moved further higher on poor results from the 20-year auction.  Short-end yields fell in the late afternoon after the July FOMC minutes signaling that it “would become appropriate at some point to slow the pace of policy rate increases” which reaffirmed the market’s expectation of a 50bps, instead of 75bps on the September FOMC.  Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIQ2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hang Seng Index bounced modestly by 0.5%; CSI399 gained 9.6%. Meituan (03690:xhkg) rallied 3.3% after a 9% drop yesterday due to a Reuters story suggesting that Tencent (00700:xhkg) plans to divest its 17% stake (USD24 billion) in Meituan. Tencent denied such a divesture plan last night.  Power tools and floor care equipment maker and a supplier to Home Depot (HD:xnys) and Wal Mart (WMT:xnys), Techtronic Industries (00669:xhkg) jumped more than 10% after better-than-expected results from the two U.S. retailers. China Resources Power (00836:xhkg) +5.7% after reporting weak 1H22 results but more wind and solar projects on the pipeline. Other Chinese power producers also outperformed amid power shortages. China Power (02380:xhkg) surged more than 8%. On Tuesday, China’s Premier Li Keqiang visited Shenzhen and held a meeting with provincial chiefs from Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Henan, and Sichuan to reiterate the central government’s push for full use of policies to stabilize the economy. Hong Kong Exchanges (00388:xhkg) fell 1.6% after reporting lower revenues, higher costs, and a 22% YoY decline in EPS, worse than market expectations. After the market close, Tencent reported weak but in line with expectations revenues and better-than-feared earnings in Q2. Tencent’s ADR climbed 3.5% overnight from the Hong Kong close. AUDUSD eying the labor market report, GBP will see more pain ahead A mixed session again overnight for the US dollar with FOMC minutes and US retail sales failing to provide any fresh impetus to the markets. AUDUSD was the biggest loser on the G10 board, sliding below 0.7000 to lows of 0.6911 after real wage data for Q2 showed a massive slump. Labor market data due this morning could further weigh on RBA expectations, if it comes out softer than expected. The weakness seen in the commodity markets, especially iron ore and copper, weighed on the antipodeans. GBPUSD stays above 1.2000 despite a 40bps gains in UK 2-year yields after the double-digit UK CPI print. USDJPY tested the resistance at 135.50 but was rejected for now. Crude oil prices (CLU2 & LCOV2) Crude oil prices made a slight recovery overnight, with WTI futures getting back to over $87/barrel and Brent futures close to $94 after data showed US inventories fell sharply. Sentiment was also supported by comments from OPEC’s new Secretary-General, Haitham Al Ghais, who said that world oil demand will rise by almost 3mb/d this year. He also said there is a high chance of a supply squeeze this year, in part because fears of slowing usage in China are exaggerated. This helped to take the focus off the prospects of the Iran nuclear deal for now. What to consider? Stale FOMC minutes hint at sustained restrictive policy Fed’s meeting minutes from the July meeting were released last night, and officials agreed to move to restrictive policy, with some noting that restrictive rates will have to be maintained for some time to bring inflation back to the 2% target. Still, there was also talk of slowing the pace of rate hikes ‘at some point’, despite pushing back against easing expectations for next year. The minutes were broadly in-line with the market’s thinking, and lacked fresh impetus needed to bring up the pricing of Fed’s rate hikes. Chairman Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium next week will be keenly watched for further inputs. US retail sales were a mixed bag July US retail sales are a little softer at the headline level than the market expected (0% growth versus the +0.1% consensus) but the ex-auto came in stronger at 0.4% (vs. -0.1% expected). June’s growth was revised down to 0.8% from 1%. The mixed data confirmed that the US consumers are feeling the pinch from higher prices, but have remained resilient so far and that could give the Fed more room to continue with its aggressive rate hikes. Lower pump prices and further improvements in supply chain could further lift up retail spending in August. UK CPI opens the door for another 50bps rate hike UK headline inflation hits 10.1%, the highest in decades and above the 9.8% expected and for the month-on-month reading of +0.6%, higher than the +0.4% expected. Core inflation hit 6.2% vs. 5.9% expected and 5.8% in Jun. That matched the cycle high from back in April. Retail inflation rose +0.9% MoM and +12.3% YoY vs. +0.6%/+12.0% expected, respectively. The Bank of England has forecast that inflation will peak out this fall at above 13%. While the central bank forecasted a recession lasting for five quarters at the last meeting, it will be hard for them to not press ahead with further tightening at the August meeting, and in fact the scope for another 50bps rate hike is getting bigger. Reserve Bank of New Zealand hikes 50 basis points to 3.00%, forecasts 4% policy rate peak The RBNZ both increased and brought forward its peak rate forecast to 4.00%, a move that was actually interpreted rather neutrally – more hawkish for now, but suggesting that the RBNZ would like to pause after achieving 4.00%. RBNZ Governor warned in a press conference that New Zealand home prices will continue to fall. This is actually a desired outcome after a huge spike in housing speculation and prices due to low rates from the pandemic response and massive pressure from a Labor-led government that had promised lower housing costs were behind the RBNZ’s quick pivot and more aggressive hiking cycle in 2021. Australian wages grew at their quickest pace in eight years, but less than expected Australia’s wage-price index gained 0.7% in the second quarter, just shy of estimates further pressuring the Aussie dollar back toward its 50-day moving average against the US dollar. Annual wage growth came in at 2.6% but real wages - adjusted for headline inflation fell 1% QoQ, and was 3.3% lower than a year earlier, eroding consumer spending power. What’s next. All eyes will be on Australia’s Reserve Bank which might be pressured to hike more than expected at its September meeting. Despite Australian wages growing slower than expected, the RBA estimates retail gas and electric prices to rise 10-15% in the second half of the year, so that will be a focus point when they consider their next move in interest rates. Tencent reported weak but in-line Q2 revenues and better-than-feared earnings Tencent reported a revenue decline of 3% YoY in Q2, weak but in line with market expectations.  Non-GAAP operating profit was down 14% YoY to RMB 36.7 billion and EPS fell 17% YoY to RMB2.90 but they beat analyst estimates.  Revenues from advertising, -18% YoY, were better than expected.  In the game segment, weaker mobile game revenues were offset by stronger PC game revenues. Disappointing results from Target and mixed results from Lowe’s Target reported EPS of USD0.39, missing estimates.  The company indicated strength in food and beverage, beauty, and household essentials but weaker in discretionary categories.  Gross margin of 21.5%, down from 30.4% year-ago quarter and below expectations. Lowe’s reported better than expected EPS of USD4.67 (vs consensus USD4.58) but a decline of 0.3% in same-store sales.  Lowe’s inventories grew 11.6% YoY, substantially lower than peer Home Depot.  With a 15% increase in product costs, the inventory volume was in effect down low-single digit. Power crunch in China shut factories Chongqing is limiting power supply to industrial users from yesterday to next Wednesday.  In Sichuan, Foxconn’s Chengdu factory is suspending operations for six days from August 15 to 20 due to a regional power shortage. The suspension is affecting Foxconn’s supply of iPad to Apple.  The company says the impact “has been limited at the moment” but it may affect shipments if the power outage persists.  The Chengdu government is imposing power curbs on industrial users to ensure electricity supply for the city’s residents.  Toyota and CATL are also suspending some operations in Sichuan due to a power shortage. Foxconn has started test production of the Apple watch in Vietnam Foxconn has started test production of the Apple watch in its factories in Vietnam. With the passage of CHIPS and Science Act earlier this month in the U.S., investors are monitoring closely if Taiwanese and Korean chipmakers as well as their customers may be accelerating the building up of production capacity away from China.  World’s biggest Sovereign Wealth fund posts its biggest half-year loss on record   Norway’s oil fund, the world’s biggest owner of public traded companies lost 14.4% in the six months through to June. In currency terms that’s $174 billion. The slump was driven by the fund’s loss in technology stocks with Meta Platforms (owning Facebook and Instagram) and Amazon, leading the decline. However, just like the market, the fund’s energy sector delivered positive share price performance, benefiting from a sharp rise in earnings in the oil, gas, and refined energy product sector. Meanwhile, investments in logistics property helped the fund’s unlisted real estate holdings gain 7.1%, though they account for 3% of its assets. Japan’s inflation will surge further Japan’s nationwide CPI for July is due to be reported at the end of the week. July producer prices came in slightly above expectations at 8.6% y/y (vs. estimates of 8.4% y/y) while the m/m figure was as expected at 0.4%. The continued surge reflects that Japanese businesses are waddling high input price pressures, and these are likely to get passed on to the consumers, suggesting further increases in CPI remain likely. More government relief measures are likely to be announced, while any little hope for a Bank of Japan pivot is fading. Bloomberg consensus estimates are calling for Japan’s CPI to accelerate to 2.6% y/y from 2.4% previously, with the ex-fresh food number seen at 2.4% y/y vs. 2.2% earlier. For a week-ahead look at markets – tune into our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.   Source: APAC Daily Digest: What is happening in markets and what to consider next – August 18, 2022
USD/JPY Weekly Review: Strong Dollar and Yen's Resilience in G10 Currencies

The Bloomberg Grains Index Continues Its Steady Growth, The Lithium Price Hits Record

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 20.09.2022 09:01
Summary:  Equity markets consolidated some of the recent losses yesterday as traders mull a cavalcade of central bank meetings this week, topped by the FOMC meeting tomorrow. The market has been burned in its attempts at pricing “peak Fed” in recent months and now Fed rate expectations are running steadily higher into tomorrow’s meeting. Can the Fed deliver on the hawkish side of a market that has finally begun to respect what this Fed is all about?   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) Yesterday US equities touched new lows intraday for the cycle lower that started on 17 August, but despite weak sentiment and downward momentum the market turned around rallying into gains. S&P 500 futures rallied 1.9% from its lows to the close and the positive momentum is continuing this morning with the index futures trading around the 3,929 level. The US 10-year yield is still sitting just below 3.5% and any meaningful push above the 3.5% level will likely renew the headwinds for equities. The rally in US equities was driven by no news so the setup feels almost like the rally ahead of the Jackson Hole event and the recent US CPI report. The market wants good news and a positive surprise, but the question is whether the FOMC will deliver that tomorrow. We doubt it believing the Fed will rather fail being too hawkish than being too dovish. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIU2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hong Kong equities rallied, with Hang Seng Index rising 1.3% and Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH.I) climbing 2.3%. Alibaba (09988:xhkg), Meituan (03690:xhkg), JD.COM (09618:xhkg), and Netease (09999:xhkg) surged 3% to 4%. EV stocks rebounded, with XPeng (09868:xhkg) soaring nearly 9%, NIO (09866:xhkg), and Li Auto (02015:xhkg) rising nearly 6%. Macao casino stocks were among the outperformers, rising from 3% to 6% across the board. CSI300 Index was little changed, with solar power, energy storage, and auto outperforming. Major Chinese banks fixed their 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates unchanged this morning. USD traders mull FOMC meeting this Wednesday The US dollar slightly on its backfoot yesterday and overnight as EURUSD criss-crosses parity and USDJPY is locked in a tight range ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting. The degree to which the Fed is able to surprise the market on the hawkish side and trigger another rise in US treasury yields (possibly it as important to see longer US yields rising, not just an adjustment at the front-end of the US yield curve to absorb,  for example, a higher than expected Fed “dot plot” forecast for next year) will determine whether the US dollar is set for another significant surge to cycle highs in the wake of the meeting. AUDNZD breaks higher through major level Despite a nominally dovish set of RBA minutes overnight, AUDNZD leaped to a new six-year high overnight, clearing the 1.1300 level. The diverging current account developments in recent quarters are likely a key driver as Australia features a formidable commodity portfolio and has become a current account surplus nation at a time when New Zealand’s reliance on energy imports has taken a toll on its trade balance, which has gone into a steep deficit. The next focus is perhaps 1.1430, the high from 2015 and highest since AUDNZD traded in a range north of 1.2500 for much of the 2008-2012 time frame. Gold (XAUUSD) Gold putting in a higher low compared with Friday was the takeaway from Monday’s price action. The yellow metal has settled into a 20-dollar range near a two-year low ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting and while the risk of a 1% hike cannot be ruled out, the market seems the be settling for another 75 bp hike, a development that may ease some of the recent selling pressure which has seen speculators flip their positions back to a net short, a relatively rare occurrence. Today’s price action is likely to be just noise ahead of Wednesday with algo-driven strategies likely to be in the driving seat, given the dollar and yield movements the overall say on the direction. Below $1854, last week's low in gold, the market may target the 50% retracement of the 2018 to 2020 rally at $1618. Crude oil (CLV2 & LCOX2) The best that can be said about Monday’s price action in energy is that traders don’t currently know which leg to stand on, a situation made worse by thin liquidity. With another interest rate hike looming and with global growth slowing there are good reasons to call for lower prices. Lower prices were also sought in response to news China may grant export permissions for excess fuel supplies, and the US announcing it will offer an additional 10 million barrels from its strategic reserves. Against these a softer dollar and recovering equity markets and continued worries about Russian supply once the EU embargo begins in early December helped sent Brent and WTI back in black following a near seven-dollar round trip. More of the same can be expected until a clearer picture emerges. US Treasuries (TLT, IEF) US treasury yields continue to trade near the peak of the cycle as the market wonders whether the 10-year can explore new territory for the cycle above 3.50% the cycle high from back in June, as well as whether any adjustment higher in Fed rate hike expectations will be entirely felt at the front end of the yield curve, as the inversion has fallen close to the cycle extreme near –0.50% for the 2-10 yield spread as the 2-year rate pushed close to 4.00%. What is going on? The euro area looks set to enter a recession According to Bloomberg, economists see an 80 % chance of a recession in the euro area in the next twelve months. This now looks inevitable. Last week, Barclays downgraded its 2023 growth forecast for France to minus 0.7 %. The Bank of France also published its three main scenarios for the French economy for next year. A recession is one of them (expected drop in GDP of minus 0.5 %). This is not its baseline, though. The length and amplitude of the recession in the eurozone will highly depend on the evolution of the energy crisis and on the risk of energy rationing. This is a bit too early to know exactly how much GDP will drop next year. Economists also expect that the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue to tighten monetary conditions (financial conditions are still loose in the euro area based on the latest credit growth data). More than half consider a second 75 basis-point rate hike is likely in October. This is only the beginning. It is likely the ECB will continue until early next year (when the recession might be officially announced). Covid vaccine related stocks tumble on Biden declaring pandemic over Shares in Moderna and BioNTech fell 7% and 9% respectively as the Biden administration declared the pandemic for over. The designation follows other countries and will lower the alertness among health care regulators and likely lower the demand for Covid vaccines as only the very high-risk people in the population will get a vaccine and booster shoots. This is worse than expected news for Covid vaccine manufacturers such as Moderna and BioNTech that are now forced to expand their product portfolio to offset this weakness. US NAHB declines for ninth month in a row NAHB Housing Market Index reported its ninth consecutive decline to 46.0, beneath the prior 49.0 and expected 47.0. Save for two panicky months during the early 2020 pandemic break-out, this is the lowest levels cine 2014, but for perspective, the indicator was sub-20 for most of 2008 through 2011. The weaker-than-expected data highlighted the pessimism hitting the US housing market due to the rising mortgage rates, and housing starts may be set to cool further in the coming months. Japan CPI hits a 31-year high Japan’s August CPI touched the dreaded 3% YoY mark from 2.6% previously, coming in at the strongest levels in over three decades and significantly above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target level. The core measure, which excludes fresh food and energy, also come in higher-than-expected at 1.6% YoY. With wage growth remaining restrained, this may mean nothing for Bank of Japan, which remains committed to maintaining its yield curve control policy. However, the markets may start to test the BoJ’s resolve once again, especially with US 10-year yields also touching 3.5% overnight while JGB yields remain capped by BoJ YCC policy at 0.25%. Grains trade mixed but remains in an uptrend The Bloomberg Grains Index continues its steady ascent after hitting a low point two months ago with global weather concerns, dwindling stockpiles and uncertainty about the Ukraine grain deal being the focus. Chicago wheat nevertheless fell on Monday on an expected increase in Russia’s crop that will compete with US exports already challenged by a strong dollar. Soybeans was supported by Chinese export demand while corn traded sideways but finding support at its 21-day moving average. Lithium prices and stocks back at records Lithium equities are back in focus as the lithium price hits a fresh record after tripling in the past year fuelled by electric vehicle demand. Recently the IEA forecast lithium demand to accelerate more than 40 times over the next two decades. The lithium carbonate price has also had an extraordinary run, up 1,000% from its covid low as supply remains a concern. Shares in Albemarle Corp (ALB:xnys), the world’s biggest lithium company and its neighbour Livent (LTHM:xnys), as well as SQM (SQM:xnys), the world’s second biggest lithium producer are on watch with their shares trading near their peaks. US President Biden wows support for Taiwan When being asked in a CBS 60 Minutes interview whether the U.S. would send forces to defend Taiwan in case of military actions from mainland China, President Biden replied: “Yes, if in fact, there was an unprecedented attack.” In answering a follow-up question about if the U.S, unlike in Ukraine, would send forces men and women to defend Taiwan, Biden said: “Yes”. China’s Emerging Industries PMI slightly improved Emerging Industries PMI (EPMI) in China climbed slightly to 48.8 in September from 48.5 in August. The modest improvement was below market expectations and the 48.8 print was the lowest September figure (EMPI is not seasonally adjusted) since 2014 when the survey first started, suggesting weak growth momentum. What are we watching next? Sweden’s Riksbank set for largest hike in decades today The market is divided on whether the Riksbank hikes 75 basis points or a full 100 basis points, either of which would be the largest hike in nearly 30 years. One factor possibly tilting the odds in favour of a larger move is the exchange rate, as EURSEK trades near the range high of 10.90 since 2020, and USDSEK is less than three percent from its all-time high, which was just above 11.00 back in 2001. SEK is traditionally very sensitive to risk sentiment, so a larger hike may only impress beyond a knee-jerk reaction if broader sentiment and the outlook for Europe improves. FOMC meeting tomorrow Many headlines discuss whether the Fed is set to hike 75 or 100 basis points tomorrow. The Fed generally doesn’t like to surprise markets too much, so arguably it is safe in “only” hiking another 75 basis points as the 100-basis point odds are priced rather low. The more likely hawkish surprise scenario is one in which the Fed sets the “dot plot” of Fed policy forecasts for 2023 higher than the market currently expects – possibly as high as 5.00% for the median expectation. Another item to watch is the Fed’s forecast of PCE inflation for 2023 and 2024, together with where it places the first forecasts for inflation in its first set of forecasts for 2025. Earnings calendar this week This week our earnings focus is on Lennar on Wednesday as US homebuilders are facing multiple headwinds from still elevated materials prices and rapidly rising interest rates impacting forward demand. Later during this week, we will watch Carnival earnings as forward outlook on cruise demand is a good indicator of the impact on consumption from tighter financial conditions. Today: Haleon Wednesday: Lennar, Trip.com, General Mills Thursday: Costco Wholesale, Accenture, FactSet Research Systems, Darden Restaurants Friday: Carnival Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0730 – Sweden Riksbank Interest Rate Announcement 0800 – ECB's Muller to speak 1230 – Canada Aug. Teranet/National Bank Home Price Index 1230 – US Aug. Housing Starts & Building Permits 1230 – Canada Aug. CPI 1700 – ECB President Lagarde to speak 2030 – API's Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-sep-20-2022-20092022
At The Close On The New York Stock Exchange Indices Closed Mixed

Falls At The Close Of The New York Stock Exchange

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.09.2022 08:16
At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.35% to a 3-month low, the S&P 500 fell 0.84%, and the NASDAQ Composite fell 1.37%. Merck & Company Inc was the top performer among the components of the Dow Jones in today's trading, up 2.98 points or 3.53% to close at 87.51. Quotes Johnson & Johnson rose by 2.90 points (1.78%), ending trading at 166.18. Salesforce Inc rose 2.52 points or 1.71% to close at 150.15. Shares of American Express Company were the leaders of the fall, the price of which fell by 5.68 points (3.82%), ending the session at 143.03. Boeing Co was up 3.20% or 4.58 points to close at 138.71, while Goldman Sachs Group Inc was down 2.43% or 7.79 points to close at 312. .92. Among the S&P 500 index components gainers today were Eli Lilly and Company, which rose 4.85% to 310.87, Merck & Company Inc, which gained 3.53% to close at 87.51. , as well as shares of Bristol-Myers Squibb Company, which rose 2.63% to end the session at 71.29. The biggest losers were Caesars Entertainment Corporation, which shed 9.44% to close at 37.62. Shares of Ball Corporation lost 8.66% to end the session at 49.23. FactSet Research Systems Inc dropped 8.29% to 394.75. Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Spero Therapeutics Inc, which rose 167.74% to hit 2.20, Avenue Therapeutics Inc, which gained 105.90% to close at 0.44, and also shares of Panbela Therapeutics Inc, which rose 46.39% to end the session at 0.35. Top Ships Inc. was the biggest loser, shedding 44.06% to close at 0.12. Shares of Ecmoho Ltd lost 42.72% and ended the session at 0.10. Quotes of Pintec Technology Holdings Ltd decreased in price by 28.80% to 0.42. On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2596) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (546), while quotes of 120 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 3,011 stocks fell, 765 rose, and 257 remained at the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 2.29% to 27.35. Gold futures for December delivery added 0.24%, or 4.00, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for November delivery rose 0.54%, or 0.45, to $83.39 a barrel. Brent oil futures for November delivery rose 0.50%, or 0.45, to $90.28 a barrel. Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.04% to 0.98, while USD/JPY fell 1.14% to hit 142.40. Futures on the USD index rose by 0.65% to 111.07.   Relevance up to 05:00 2022-09-24 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/293918
Behind Closed Doors: The Multibillion-Dollar Deals Shaping Global Markets

CarMax Inc And SolarEdge Technologies Inc Are The Biggest Losers At The Close In The New York Stock Exchange

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 30.09.2022 08:09
At the close in the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 1.54%, the S&P 500 fell 2.11% and the NASDAQ Composite fell 2.84%. The leading gainers among the components of the Dow Jones index today were The Travelers Companies Inc, which gained 1.76 points (1.15%) to close at 154.68. Visa Inc Class A rose 0.88 points or 0.49% to close at 180.06. Merck & Company Inc shed 0.14 points or 0.16% to close at 86.64. The losers were Boeing Co shares, which lost 8.11 points or 6.08% to end the session at 125.33. Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc was up 4.97% or 1.65 points to close at 31.55 while Apple Inc was down 4.91% or 7.36 points to end at 142. .48. Among the S&P 500 index components gainers in today's trading were Everest Re Group Ltd, which rose 3.07% to 267.41, STERIS plc, which gained 2.76% to close at 167.29, and also shares of W. R. Berkley Corp, which rose 2.73% to end the session at 65.18. The biggest losers were CarMax Inc, which shed 24.60% to close at 65.16. Shares of SolarEdge Technologies Inc lost 8.27% to end the session at 235.56. Quotes of Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd decreased in price by 7.91% to 43.64. Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Senti Biosciences Inc, which rose 50.71% to hit 2.11, Avalon Globocare Corp, which gained 25.85% to close at 0.70, and also shares of TuanChe ADR, which rose 25.31% to close the session at 3.07. The biggest losers were Atlis Motor Vehicles Inc, which shed 54.82% to close at 33.95. Shares of Lion Group Holding Ltd lost 49.25% and ended the session at 1.01. Quotes of Twin Vee Powercats Co decreased in price by 29.01% to 2.52. On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2631) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (530), while quotes of 112 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,842 stocks fell, 956 rose, and 224 remained at the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 5.50% to 31.84. Gold futures for December delivery lost 0.07%, or 1.20, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for November delivery fell 0.55%, or 0.45, to $81.70 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for December delivery fell 0.55%, or 0.48, to $87.57 a barrel. Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD rose 0.70% to hit 0.98, while USD/JPY edged up 0.21% to hit 144.46. Futures on the USD index fell 0.36% to 112.11.  Go to dashboard   Relevance up to 05:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/294915
Philippines Central Bank's Hawkish Pause: Key Developments and Policy Stance

A Peak In Inflation In The Eurozone Is Possible| H&M’s Challenging Position And Micron's Shocking Forecast

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 30.09.2022 09:44
Summary:  After celebrating the injection of liquidity from the Bank of England on Wednesday, global markets swooned again yesterday, taking the major US indices. Elsewhere, sterling has recovered most of the lost ground since the announcement of last week’s tax cuts on the stabilization of the gilt market, with other major sovereign yields also easing lower. The drop in yields and a consolidation in the US dollar have supported gold, which is poking higher toward important resistance.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) US equities traded lower yesterday after hawkish remarks from Mester and Bullard that policy rates will stay higher for longer than what the market is expecting (pricing in). In addition, the market is increasingly at edge with the expectation that Russia will annex four regions of Ukrainian territory because the fear is that it could escalate the war to new levels. Nasdaq 100 futures are most sensitive to the hawkish Fed messages and tumbling growth outlook, so watch this index going into the weekend. Nasdaq 100 futures are trading around the 11,265 level this morning and 11,000 is naturally the big next level on the downside in case selling resumes into the weekend. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIU2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hong Kong and mainland China markets were treading water ahead of the week-long National Day golden week holiday. Chinese developers rallied to recoup some of the recent losses following PBoC’s supportive statement coming out of its quarterly monetary meeting saying that the central bank will expand its special lending program to ensure the delivery of delayed housing projects. Country Garden (02007:xhkg) rebounded 10% after plunging 11% yesterday. Chinese EV maker, Zhejian Leapmotor (09863:xhkg), tumbled another 11% after having tumbled 33.5% yesterday on its first day of trading. Other Chinese EV names traded in the Hong Kong bourses plunged from 2% to 9%. Strong USD fades as bond yields punched lower The weak US dollar suggests that the market was more focused on rising US treasury yields during the recent upswing than the accompanying risk sentiment deterioration: yesterday, the USD weakened sharply as yields were flat to lower while risk sentiment was in the dumps. Hard to tell if some end-of-month/quarter rebalancing through today might be in play as well. A proper reversal of the recent USD bull move would require far more weakness, for example: EURUSD back above the 0.9900-0.9950 area and AUDUSD above perhaps 0.6700 (more on GBPUSD below). Next week features a full line-up of key US macro data and should bring a test of the USD’s status. Was that the climax for sterling bear market? Too early to draw conclusions here, as sterling has not yet recovered sufficient ground in the most important EURGBP and GBPUSD pairs to suggest that we have seen a climax reversal, although overnight, GBPUSD did reverse the entire plunge sparked by the announcement of the special budget last Friday by Chancellor Kwarteng, which started around 1.1200. Arguably, a close above 1.1200-1.1250 suggests a chance over reversal, though really 1.1500 was a more significant starting point for the recent slide. For EURGBP, the key support/pivot zone is 0.8750-0.8700. While there was nothing specifically supportive about the Bank of England’s emergency QE, if the logic is that the BoE saved the system from a financial crisis and that the exercise demonstrated that quantitative tightening will prove impossible elsewhere eventually (and therefore the BoE is only the first of many), sterling’s situation looks less bad if other central banks eventually follow suit. Gold (XAUUSD) Gold continues to rebound from key support at $1615 with the focus now being the critical resistance zone into 1,680-1,700 that is the departure point for this latest bear market move. While global bond yields and the USD will continue to lead the way as coincident indicators, the market has held up relatively well with geopolitical concerns (Putin’s N threat) and investors increasingly worried the FOMC with its hawkish actions may break the currency and bond market. Some signs of that were seen this week with some extreme moves in local bond and currency markets. Speculators hold a rare net short in COMEX gold futures and any further strength will trigger short covering, while total holdings in ETFs backed by bullion have declined to a 30-month low. Crude oil (CLX2 & LCOX2) Crude oil is heading for its first albeit small weekly gain in five and the first quarterly drop since 2020. The market remains troubled by forces pulling prices in opposite direction, and while the strong dollar, surging yields, and continued lockdowns in China have raised demand worries, the risk to supply continues to be a supporting theme. That focus returned on Thursday when OPEC+ said a production cut would be discussed at next week's meeting with Russia proposing a 1 mln barrels per day cut, a reduction towards which they are unlikely to contribute much as they are already producing below their quota. In addition, the combination of Russian sanctions and embargo and the US pausing its sales from strategic reserves will continue to dampen the downside risks. US treasuries (TLT, IEF) US treasury yields remained calm yesterday as we can infer that the recent wild ride in UK gilts had triggered contagion into US treasury yields, likely aggravating the recent rise toward 4.00% for the 10-year treasury benchmark before the BoE’s emergency efforts took major sovereign yields back lower. US macro data next week, including the ISM surveys and the September jobs report next Friday, will be key for the direction in US yields, with the major 3.50% level, the June high, the key downside pivot point. What is going on? Apple shares (AAPL:xnas) crater after the company announced it will skip production increase and on analyst downgrade Apple shares ended the day nearly 5% lower, helping to drag the broader market lower as it is world’s largest company by market capitalization. A Bank of America analyst cut the rating on the company to “neutral” from “buy”. Apple’s demand is hurt by the cost-of-living crisis and the earnings outlook last night from the chip manufacturer Micron Technology is indicating that demand is coming down fast. Fed speakers push for more hikes Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester (voter this year) remains more hawkish than the Fed’s median dot plot and said that rates are not in restrictive territory yet and more rate hikes will be needed. No signs of concern on economy or dollar strength were noted, while inflation remained the key point of concern for her. St. Louis Fed president James Bullard, likewise a voter this year, said it was a ‘bad idea to mess’ with the inflation target while labor market conditions remain tight and recession is only a risk. San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly (voter in 2024) was more cautious, saying officials should work to avoid "inducing a deep recession." However, she still raised the bar on expectations on the Fed funds rate saying that she is comfortable with median Fed rate path projection of 4%-4.5% by year end, 4.5%-5% in 2023 (pointing to upside risks as the dot plot suggested 4.6%, or 4.5-4.75% if we talk in ranges). Eurozone inflation is set to hit a new record in September The September eurozone inflation will be released today. Expect a new record which will increase the pressure on the European Central Bank to hike interest rates by at least 75 basis points in October. The economist consensus expects that the headline harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) will reach 9.7 % year-over-year against 9.1 % in August. The core rate is expected to climb to 5.6 % year-over-year against 5.5 % previously. The spread between the headline and the core inflation figures is mostly explained by a decrease in oil and natural gas prices in recent months. However, this is clear that inflation is becoming broad-based, including in the services sector. This means that inflation is here to stay for long. The HICP is likely to continue increasing in the coming months. A peak in inflation in the eurozone is possible in the first quarter of 2023, in our view. This is much later than in the United States.  Earnings recap (H&M, Nike, and Micron) H&M delivered a big miss yesterday on operating profit as input costs surprised to the upside. H&M is starting charging for online returns to save costs and the demand in China is still weak due to H&M’s challenging position in the country. Nike surprised positively on revenue but missed on earnings against estimates as margin compression has begun, and the company’s inventory is building up fast creating a potential headache going forward as consumer demand is expected to decline in the coming quarters. Micron delivered a shocking outlook for the current quarter with revenue expected at €4-4.5bn vs est. €6bn. CEE currencies under strain, likely on geopolitical unease CEE currencies are under significant pressure since the news of the pipeline explosions this week – this was likely triggered by the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines to Germany, which could be a prelude to the cutting off of other pipelines from Russia. EURHUF has pulled above 420 for the first time ever, EURPLN yesterday spiked to the highest level since the timeframe just after the breakout of war in Ukraine.  Hungary continues to not support new sanction efforts against Russian energy imports. In Prague, protests have broken out against the country’s energy policy, while EURCZK remains sedated by heavy Czech central bank intervention. US initial claims come in strong again Initial claims came in lower than expected at 193k with last week’s also revised lower to 209k from 213k. Continued claims cooled to 1.347mln from 1.376mln despite the expected rise to 1.388mln. The data shows how tight the labour market is in the US and Fed's Bullard labelled today's claims metric as "super low". Meanwhile, the third estimate of Q2 GDP was confirmed to decline 0.6%, notably with consumer spending revised higher to 2% from 1.5% previously. Aluminium prices bolt higher; fuelling a rally in major mining companies Aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange briefly jumped by a record 8.5% on Thursday before retracing lower. The sudden burst which to a minor extent was replicated in zinc and nickel was driven by a Bloomberg report saying that the LME as an option is looking into whether and under what circumstances they might place a ban on Russian metal being cleared via the exchange. Any such move by the LME to block Russian supplies could have significant ramifications for the global metal markets given their importance as a supplier of the mentioned metals, which to a smaller extend also includes copper. What are we watching next? Change of course from UK government after recent events? UK Prime Minister Liz Truss and Chancellor Kwarteng will meet with the Office of Budget Responsibility today for emergency talks before they receive the first draft of fiscal forecasts from the OBR next week. The recent crisis in the UK gilt market and downward spiral in sterling could elicit a response and possible backtracking on some portion of the recent policy announcement, although Truss said as recently as yesterday that she will stay the course. The most recent YouGov political poll release yesterday shows the Conservatives trailing Labour by a whopping 33 points, the largest gap since the 1990’s. Election in Brazil at the weekendBrazilian voters go to the polls on Sunday, with left-leaning former president Lula leading strongly in the polls over the incumbent right-populist Bolsonaro, but with many fearing the risk of disorder and violence as Bolsonaro has already made claims of election fraud and has hinted at not wanting to leave office. A run-off election between the two candidates will be held on October 30 if neither gets more than half the popular vote this weekend. The Brazilian real is at the weak end of the recent range versus the US dollar. Fed preferred inflation measure, US PCE, on the radar today The data point is for August and comes nearly three weeks after the BLS CPI data for the month. It will likely echo the same message as given by the last strong CPI number which has made the Fed even more hawkish in the last few weeks since the Jackson Hole. Headline numbers may be lower due to the decline in gasoline prices, but the price pressure on services side will likely broaden further. At last week’s FOMC meeting, the Fed also raised its forecasts for inflation, with the central bank now seeing core PCE at 4.5% by the end of this year (it previously projected 4.3%), moderating to 3.1% next year and at 2.1% at the end of its forecast horizon in 2025, but thinks that headline PCE prices will be at its 2% target by then. Earnings calendar this week Today’s earnings release to watch is from Carnival which is expected to deliver strong results but there are significant downside risks to the outlook from fuel costs, staffing costs and the cost-of-living crisis hurting disposable income. Today: Carnival (postponed from last week), Nitori Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0755 – Germany Sep. Unemployment Change/Rate 0800 – Poland Sep. Flash CPI 0800 – Norway Daily FX Purchases 0830 – UK Aug. Mortgage Approvals 0900 – Eurozone Sep. Flash CPI 1230 – US Aug. PCE Deflator/Core Deflator 1300 – US Fed Vice Chair Brainard to speak at Fed conference on Financial Stability. 1345 – US Sep. Chicago PMI 1400 – US Final University of Michigan Sentiment Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-sep-30-2022-30092022
Declines At The Close Of The New York Stock Exchange, The Drop Leaders Were Nike Inc Shares

Declines At The Close Of The New York Stock Exchange, The Drop Leaders Were Nike Inc Shares

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 03.10.2022 08:21
At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 1.71% to hit a 52-week low, the S&P 500 fell 1.51% and the NASDAQ Composite fell 1.51%. Shares of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated were among the leaders of gains among the components of the Dow Jones index today, which lost 3.79 points (0.74%) to close at 505.04. Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc fell 0.15 points or 0.48% to close at 31.40. Dow Inc shed 0.23 points or 0.52% to close at 43.93. The drop leaders were Nike Inc shares, which lost 12.21 points or 12.81% to end the session at 83.12. Boeing Co was up 3.39% or 4.25 points to close at 121.08, while Walt Disney Company was down 3.20% or 3.12 points to close at 94. 33. Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Charles River Laboratories, which rose 3.57% to hit 196.80, Weyerhaeuser Company, which gained 2.92% to close at 28.56, and shares of Twitter Inc, which rose 2.74% to end the session at 43.91. The losers were shares of Carnival Corporation, which fell 23.31% to close at 7.03. Shares of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd lost 18.11% to end the session at 11.35. Quotes of Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd decreased in price by 13.14% to 37.91. Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were FingerMotion Inc, which rose 82.16% to hit 3.37, SAITECH Global Corp, which gained 43.36% to close at 3.24, and shares of Avenue Therapeutics Inc, which rose 39.03% to end the session at 10.08. The biggest losers were Atlis Motor Vehicles Inc, which shed 39.91% to close at 20.40. Shares of Aterian Inc lost 37.06% and ended the session at 1.24. Quotes of Edesa Biotech Inc decreased in price by 34.66% to 0.92. On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (1,758) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1,354), while quotations of 117 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,139 companies fell in price, 1,583 rose, and 228 remained at the level of the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 0.69% to 31.62. Gold futures for December delivery added 0.11%, or 1.80, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for November delivery fell 1.87%, or 1.52, to $79.71 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for December delivery fell 2.13%, or 1.86, to $85.32 a barrel. Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.08% to 0.98, while USD/JPY advanced 0.23% to hit 144.77. Futures on the USD index fell 0.09% to 112.10. Relevance up to 05:00 2022-10-04 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/295131
Biden Declared Unwavering Support For Ukraine, The Reserve Bank Of New Zealand May Go Back To Raising Rates

Ukraine's Successes Have Infuriated Putin Allies| Intel Acquired Mobileye And More

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 03.10.2022 08:42
Summary:  The S&P500 broke below 3600 into the close on Friday as US 10-year yields surged above 3.8%. Risk off seen from multiple forces heading into the new month/quarter as corporate earnings misses continue to raise the threat of an ugly earnings season ahead. Meanwhile, the war could take a turn for the worse if Russia decides to escalates after losing a key city to Ukraine again over the weekend. China heads into the Golden Week holiday and OPEC+ meeting in focus this week with expectations of over 1mn b/d output cut on the table. UK crisis will also take more attention this week along with key US ISM manufacturing data due today and the payrolls data at the end of the week. What is happening in markets? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) had three down quarters in a row U.S. equities continued to sell off on Friday. S&P500 dropped 1.5% for the day and ended the month more than 9% lower. Nasdaq 100 declined 1.7% on Friday, falling nearly 11% in September. 10 of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 declined, with Utilities, Information Technology, and Consumer Discretionary leading the charge lower. Real Estate was the only sector that gained on Friday.  Big U.S. stock movers   Being another latest signal of weakening U.S. consumer demand, Carnival (CCL:xnys) tumbled more than 23% after the cruise operator reported occupancy for the quarter ending Aug 31 below market expectations. Nike (NKE:xnys) plunged 12.8% on rising inventories and margin misses. For a detailed discussion on last week’s earnings warning signs from Nike, Micron, and H&M’s margin misses, please refer to Peter Garnry’s analysis here. U.S. treasury yields (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) climbed again U.S. treasury yields fell initially during London hours on Friday in tandem with the intraday swings in the U.K. Gilts and then pared the decline in yields in New York hours following the slightly stronger than expected PCE data and Fed Vice-Chair Brainard’s reiteration that the Fed will avoid pulling back from rate hikes prematurely. Yields decisively soared higher in the last hour of trading with 2-year yields rising 9bps to 4.28% and 10-year yields climbing 4bps to 3.83%. September was Hang Seng Index’s (HSIU2) worst month in 11 years Hong Kong and mainland China markets were treading water ahead of the week-long National Day golden week holiday in the mainland, with Hang Seng Index up by 0.3% and CSI 300 Index sliding 0.6%. Despite the lackluster trading last Friday, September was the worst month for the Hang Seng Index, which had fallen 13.7%, over the past 11 years. Chinese developers rallied to recoup some of the recent losses following incremental supporting measures from regulators.  CIFI (00884:xhkg), Country Garden (02007:xhkg), and Guangzhou R&F rebounded 11%, 9%, and 8% respectively. Chinese EV maker, Zhejian Leapmotor (09863:xhkg), tumbled another 22% last Friday after having collapsed 33.5% the day before on its first day of trading.  Other Chinese EV names traded in the Hong Kong bourses plunged from 4% to 7% even after more subsidies and support were announced by the Ministry of Commerce and the Shanghai Municipal Government. Chinese restaurant operator Jiumaojiu (09922:xhkg) plunged by 20.4% following its announcement to pay RMB1 billion for a 26% equity stake in the Guangzhou IFC Mall project which will give the company 30,000 sqm for self-use as headquarter and R&D centre.  GBP ends a volatile week strongest against the USD Sterling ended the week strongest in the G10 pack against the USD despite a flash crash last week and risks of a pension fund crisis in the UK on top of the current energy crisis and the runaway inflation issues at hand. Rising Russia tensions mean that the energy situation could get a leg up this week, but focus for the sterling will remain on any possible rollback of the loose fiscal policy. The political pressure is certainly mounting after the latest YouGov poll showed Labour with a 33-point lead in the polls, the widest margin since the 1990’s. GBPUSD is testing a break above 1.1235, but that for now seems to be underpinned by a softer USD and lower US yields, and it remains to be seen if that story will continue this week as we get past the rebalancing flows. Crude oil (CLX2 & LCOX2) prices waiting for a large OPEC+ production cut Crude oil ended last week mixed but mostly lower on Friday after some gains initially on expectations of an OPEC+ production cut coming this week. It is being reported that OPEC+ is mulling a possible reduction of 0.5-1mn barrels/day, after the September output rose 210k barrels/day from August. Some delegates said over the weekend that output cut could exceed 1 million barrels/day, and this has helped crude oil see a 3% jump at the Asia open. Given that the meeting is in-person for the first time since March 2020 also raises expectations of a large cut. WTI futures were seen above $82/barrel while Brent futures rose towards $88. Still, demand worries especially with China’s lockdowns and rapid global tightening pace will continue to put downside pressure on oil prices. Wheat futures (ZWZ2) higher on supply concerns On Friday, the USDA published its Quarterly Stocks and wheat production reports. Corn stocks were lower and soybeans higher than expected. December wheat (ZWZ2) jumped 2.8% with stocks in line but production in all categories falling short of expectations. Meanwhile, geopolitical concerns are on the rise with Russia threatening use of low-yield nuclear weapons as its military advantage starts to diminish. This has again raised concerns over the fate of the Black Sea export corridor and the supply situation in agri commodities may continue to be challenged. What to consider? Hot US PCE paves the way for another CPI surprise this month US PCE data came in stronger-than-expected, with the headline up 6.2% YoY from 6.3% YoY prior and 6.0% YoY expected. The core measure was at 4.9% YoY, coming in both higher than last month’s 4.6% YoY and the expected 4.7% YoY. This will likely push up the pricing of another 75bps rate hike from the Fed at the November meeting, as the CPI report out this month is generally likely to follow the same trend of remining close to its highs. Meanwhile, the final estimate of University of Michigan survey was revised lower to 58.6 from preliminary print of 59.5 due to the slide in expectations to 58 from 59.9, even as the current conditions fared better at 59.7 from 58.9 previously. The inflation metrics also diverged with 1yr consumer inflation expectations edging higher to 4.7% (prev. 4.6%), although the longer term 5yr slightly fell to 2.7% (prev. 2.8%). Stronger Q3 Atlanta Fed GDP and more calls for restrictive Fed policy The economic momentum in the US is still strong, as hinted by the big upward revision in Atlanta Fed’s Q3 GDP estimate to 2.4% from 0.3% earlier with higher contribution expected from private domestic investment and net exports. The advance Q3 GDP report is due on October 27, so that will likely give more ammunition to the Fed to raise rates aggressively at the November meeting. Meanwhile, more Fed speakers were on the wires on Friday continuing to push for interest rates to move towards or above the median of the dot plot. Fed Vice-Chair Brainard noted policy will need to be restrictive for some time, while Mary Daly (2024 voter) was more specific to say that she  expects to hold rates steady for at least all of 2023 after rate hikes. Barkin (2024 voter) echoed the Saxo view that Fed has decided that they’d rather be wrong by tightening too much rather than tightening too little. He said it would be a good news story if the Fed did a bit too much and inflation came down. Eurozone inflation remains painfully high The September eurozone consumer price index (CPI) reached double-digits at 10% year-over-year versus prior 9.1% and expected 9.7%. The core CPI (excluding volatile components) is up to 4.8% year-over-year versus expected 4.7% too. What is clearly worrying is there is an acceleration in price pressures beyond energy and food prices. This is a signal that inflation is now broad-based. In France, the EU-harmonized CPI was out at 6.2% year-over-year in September. This is much lower than what the consensus expected (6.7%). It stood at 6.8% in July and 6.6% in August. On the downside, the producer price index (PPI) for August reached a new high at 29.5% year-over-year against expected 27.6%. This matters. The PPI usually represents the pipeline in inflation which will be passed on to consumers, at least partially. This means that the peak in inflation is likely ahead of us in France and in all the other eurozone countries. Expect to reach it in the first quarter of next year, at best.  China’s PMIs were mixed in September China’s September official NBS Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.1, stronger than expectations (consensus 49.7, Aug 49.4), and returned to the expansionary territory.  The strength was found in the output sub-index which rebounded to 51.5 in September from 49.8 in August, which was largely due to the receding heatwave and pent-up demand.  The other major sub-indices in manufacturing remained below 50.  Exports were weak as the new export orders sub-index fell to 47 in September from 48.1 in August.  The Caixin Manufacturing PMI, which has a larger weight in coastal cities in the eastern region, fell to 48.1 (consensus 49.5, Aug 49.5), echoing the weakness in the exports element in the official PMI.  The NBS Non-manufacturing PMI came in at 50.6, below expectations (consensus 52.4, Aug 52.6).  Among non-manufacturing activities, the construction sub-index rose to 60.2 from 56.5, supported by infrastructure construction, while the service sub-index fell into the contractionary territory, coming in at 48.9, down from August’s 51.9. Retail, air travel, lodging, catering, and other services requiring close contact contracted in the midst of Covid restrictions. Ukraine’s recapture of key city raises the nuclear threat Ukrainian troops recaptured the city of Lyman over the weekend in occupied eastern Ukraine, less than a day after Russia announced the annexation of the area and vowed to defend it with all military means. Ukraine's successes have infuriated Putin allies such as Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of Russia's southern Chechnya region who called on Putin to retaliate by escalating even further against Ukraine, including declaring martial law in the border regions and using low-yield nuclear weapons. China relaxes mortgage rates’ lower bound for first-time homebuyers and provides tax rebates to homebuyers plus telling banks to lend to the property sector The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) announced last Friday to lower or even remove the lower bounds imposed on first-time homebuyers in cities that experienced three consecutive months (from June to August 2022) declines in new home prices both sequentially and year-on-year.  The currently lower bound is the 5-year Loan Prime Rate minus 20bps.  The new policy will benefit first-time homebuyers in lower-tier cities while tier-1 cities do not meet the above price decline criterion. Among the top-70 cities, eight Tier-2 cities and 15 Tier-3 cities are eligible. The PBoC and the CBIRC also reportedly told the largest banks in the country to extend at least RMB600 billion in net new financing to the housing sector for the rest of the year. In addition, the State Administration of Taxation announced that from Oct 1, 2022, to Dec 31, 2023, homebuyers will be rebated the tax they paid for the sale of their previous home if the sale was within one year from the purchase of the new home.  Tesla reveals a prototype of its humanoid robot On last Friday’s AI Day, Tesla (TSLA:xnas) showcased a prototype of the EV maker’s first humanoid robot, dubbed Optimus, and reveals the latest updates to the company’s assistant deriving system. Tesla’s humanoid robots are still a long way from commercialization and it plans to deploy them first at Tesla factories.  Intel goes ahead to list its self-driving-car unit Intel’s self-driving-car unit, Mobileye said on Friday that the company filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission for IPO.  Mobileye did not provide information about the expected size and price range for its IPO. Intel acquired Mobileye, an Israeli company that develops driver-assistance systems for USD15.3 billion in 2017. Mobileye said it had agreements in hand to supply 266 million vehicles with the company’s driver-assistance systems by 2030.  US ISM manufacturing on watch today Due later today, ISM manufacturing is unlikely to dent the optimism around the US economy that has been building up further with positive economic indicators released over the last few weeks. While the Bloomberg consensus estimates show some signs of a slowdown to 52.1 in September from 52.8 in August – that should likely be underpinned by improving supply chains, while new orders should remain upbeat. On Tuesday, Japan’s Tokyo CPI will see impact of reopening Japan’s inflationary pressures are likely to continue to reign amid higher global prices of food, electricity as well as a weak yen propping up import prices. Bloomberg consensus estimates point to a slightly softer headline print of 2.7% YoY from 2.9% YoY previously, but the core is pinned higher at 2.8% YoY from 2.6% YoY previously. Further, the reopening of the economic from the pandemic curbs likely means demand side pressures are also broadening, and services inflation will potentially pick up as well.   For a week-ahead look at markets – tune into our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/market-insights-today-3-oct-2022-03102022
"Private investors will be required to increase their gilt exposure by at least £268bn in FY2023-24"

The Weakening Of Confidence In The British Government| Oil Prices Extended Gains And More

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 04.10.2022 09:09
Summary:  After a series of positive surprises on US economic data last week, the disappointment from the ISM manufacturing was a big deal for the markets. US Treasury yields slumped, with rising expectations of an earlier Fed pivot which we think may be premature. But that helped equity markets close higher, more a signal of positioning rather than expectations. UK’s tax cut U-turn instilled a fresh bid in sterling, but further impeded confidence in the government. Oil prices extended gains and Gold also reclaimed the $1700-mark. On watch today will be how the Reserve Bank of Australia transitions to a slower rate hike pace. What is happening in markets? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) rally over 2% US stocks rallied for the first day of the quarter with the Nasdaq100 up almost 2.4%, and the S&P500 up about 2.6%, which is the best gain since July 27. It comes as the 10-year US Treasury yield rolled over to trade at around 3.65% (after topping 4% at one-point last week). The risk-on mood was fueled by several things; firstly, the UK government did a U-turn and will reverse plans to scrap the top rate of income tax. Secondly, the United Nations called on the Fed and other central banks to halt interest rates hikes. And thirdly, what also boosted sentiment was that two Fed speakers at the weekend, Brainard and Daly were reportedly discussing the downside of hiking too fast. And fourthly, weaker than expected US economic news came out with; US manufacturing falling for the third time in four months. As for the S&P500, the technical indicators; the MACD and the RSI also remain in oversold territory, which supports the notion that some investors believe a short-term rebound may be seen perhaps amid the risk-on mood. However, caution still remains in the air ahead of further Fed's hikes. U.S. treasury yields (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) The US Treasury yields retreated on Monday as a subdued ISM manufacturing print led to calls of slower Fed tightening and an earlier Fed pivot, which had already been building last week as well due to the risk of wider market disruptions as things have started to break. The reversal of the UK tax cut also supported Gilts, and some pass-through was seen to the US Treasuries. 2-year yields declined over 16bps to 4.11%, while the 10-year was down 19bps to 3.63%. Australia’s ASX200 (ASXSP200.1) poised to raise 1.5% with a focus on oil stocks Commodities will be focus on the ASX today with Oil and LNG stocks like Woodside (WDS), Santos (STO) set to see some action after the oil and gas prices jumped 5%. Other stocks to watch include Worley (WOR) who services the energy sector. Iron ore companies will be watched as well, supported higher by the iron ore price jumping 1.8% to US$94.50. So it’s worth watching if BHP, RIO and CIA can extend their short-term uptrend. AUDUSD rallies back to 0.6516 ahead of RBA’s expected 0.5% hike Australia’s RBA is likely to make another jumbo rate hike and take rates up by 50 bps (0.5%) to 2.85% on Tuesday (which is what consensus thinking is). And then after that, the RBA is likely to move in smaller increments, according to interest rate futures and what RBA Governor Phillip Lowe signaled he wants. With the majority of Australian mortgages at floating-rates, and wage growth being stronger, the RBA’s thinking is that most Aussies will be able to sustain the higher rates as a lot of Australian made extra mortgage repayments amid the lockdowns, as pulled back on discretionary spending. However there are about 2.5 million Aussies who have no buffer. And 9.8 million Aussies have mortgages. So we still think a property pull back might be on the cards. It’s the magnitude of the pull back that is being questioned. The technical indicator, the MACD suggests the AUDUSD could rally if the RBA proceeds with a likely 0.5% hike. However over the long term, our house view remains bearish on the AUDUSD until Fed hikes cool, and commodity demand picks up from China. GBPUSD made a strong recovery, will it last? Cable was seen advancing above the 1.13 handle in early Asian hours on Tuesday as it extended Monday’s gains following announcement of plans to scarp the tax cut by the UK government. A softer dollar also supported pound’s gains, amid a slide in US Treasury yields. However, more Fed tightening is still in the cards and the lack of trust in the new UK government cannot be ignored even if the tax policy has been reversed for now. Focus on the BOE meeting on November 3 where 115bps rate hike is priced in, lower than last week’s pricing of 150bps. However, a full-budget statement will be released before that and further austerity measures, if included, can bring fresh downside for the sterling. EURGBP slid below 0.8700. Crude oil (CLX2 & LCOX2) extends gains on OPEC+ chatter Crude oil trades higher ahead of Wednesday’s OPEC+ meeting in Vienna as the alliance is considering a production cut of more than 1 million barrels/day to support prices following a 25% slump during Q3 2022. That would be the biggest cut since the pandemic with OPEC+ slashed production by 10 million barrels/day as demand collapsed. WTI futures rose above $83/barrel while Brent was close to $90. With several OPEC+ producers, including Russia, producing below target, and only Saudi Arabia may be able to limit production without a loss in additional market share. Meanwhile, expectations of an earlier Fed pivot also stabilized demand weakness expectations. Gold (XAUUSD) reclaims 1700 on lower US yields Gold extended recent gains as yields on Treasuries continued to decline. After the 10-year yields were seen topping the 4% level at one point last week, they are now off about 40bps to end at 3.63% yesterday. Meanwhile, a softer dollar and rising geopolitical tensions have also brought back investor demand for the yellow metal. A weaker ISM manufacturing print yesterday (read below) has also increased calls for an earlier Fed pivot, which we think may be premature. But the increasing calls for a recession have meant gains for Gold which was last seen back at $1,700/oz.   What to consider? US ISM manufacturing disappoints The headline for September’s US ISM manufacturing came in weaker than expectations at 50.9 from the prior month’s 52.8 and expected 52.2. Both employment and new orders both dropped into contractionary territory printing 48.7 (exp. 53.0, prev. 54.2) and 47.1 (prev. 41.3), respectively. The report showed that higher interest rates are starting to weigh on business investment sentiment, at least in the interest rate sensitive sectors. Still, the inflationary gauge of prices paid declined to 51.7 (exp. 51.9, prev. 52.5) falling for the sixth straight month. Supplier delivery times suggested some easing on the supply chains, but overall the report indicated the case of a slowdown in the US economy as rapid Fed tightening continues. UK scraps plans to cut taxes The UK government confirmed reports it will not go ahead with the abolition of the 45p rate of income tax but they are committed to borrowing extra over the winter to help with the ongoing energy crisis. The Chancellor told BBC the proposal was "drowning out a strong package", which includes support for energy bills, cuts to the basic rate of income tax, and the scrapped increase in corporation tax. However, he saw the abolition of 45p tax rate as a distraction from the overriding mission, and thus decided to remove it. This puts water on the Bank of England’s bond-buying, and exposes further the cracks in UK policymaking, thus suggesting that the UK assets are not out of the woods. A full-budget, which has now been brought forward to before the next BOE meeting on November 3, could include more tax cuts. Fed pushes back on an earlier pivot Fed’s NY President John Williams repeated inflation is too high and the Fed's job is not done, also saying that the monetary policy is still not in restrictive zone, pushing back on some calls for an earlier Fed pivot. He acknowledged signs of a slowdown in the housing sector or the consumer and business investment spending, but nothing that could deter the Fed from fighting inflation. On forecasts, he sees inflation likely down to 3% by next year (median view for Core PCE 3.1%), and the US is likely to see unemployment rise to 4.5% by end of 2023 (median view 4.4%). Thomas Barkin (2024 voter) made the case for more inflation in the post-pandemic world, noting that the Fed must consider global developments, but the focus is on the US. Japan’s Tokyo inflation accelerates further Japan’s September Tokyo CPI came in at 2.8% YoY, a notch softer than last month’s 2.9% YoY and in-line with expectations, but the core-core (ex-fresh food and energy) print accelerated to 1.7% YoY from 1.4% YoY, also coming in ahead of expectations at 1.4% YoY. Higher global food and energy prices along with a record weak yen has brought import price pressures on Japan’s economy, and this print hints at further gains in CPI on the horizon. While the pressure on the Bank of Japan to hike rates may have eased for now as US yields are easing, but there is still more Fed tightening in the pipeline and fresh pressures cannot be ignored. Reserve Bank of Australia may step away from moving to a slower rate hike pace The Reserve Bank of Australia is scheduled to announce its next rate decision on Tuesday, October 4. Governor Lowe had previously signalled that the pace of rate hikes is likely to slow from here after four consecutive rate hikes of the magnitude of 50bps. However, money markets and Bloomberg consensus forecast is still calling for another 50bps rate hike at the October meeting suggesting that RBA may delay taking the foot off the pedal just yet. The recent slide in the Australian dollar and worries over a turmoil in global financial markets may prompt the policymakers to front-load more of the rate hikes while the economy is still holding up. Retail sales data last week was upbeat while the first monthly inflation data reading at 6.8% is only slightly off the 7% levels seen in the preceding month. So, even as a monthly meeting can ensure a steady pace of rate hikes even with a smaller 25bps rate move, policymakers would possibly prefer to make a larger move this week to provide some support to the AUD. Likewise, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is also expected to hike rates by another 50bps at their October 6 meeting.   For a week-ahead look at markets – tune into our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/market-insights-today-4-oct-04102022
Investors Are Worried That Elon Musk Is Losing His Focus | The Eurozone Recession Can Dampen Investors’ Hopes

Tesla Investors Begin To Doubt Growth In 2023|The RBA Hiked Rates And More

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 04.10.2022 09:33
Summary:  Risk sentiment got a strong boost yesterday from falling treasury yields, with Fed rate hike bets for early next year at their lowest in two years after a rising swell of questions from influential sources on whether the Fed is taking its tightening regime too quickly and a soft September US ISM Manufacturing data point. Overnight, Australia’s central bank, the RBA, surprised many with a hike of only 25 basis points.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) US equities bounced back yesterday as the US 10-year yield fell to 3.64% with S&P 500 futures rallying 2.5% and extending another 1% this morning in trading around the 3,726 level; this is just a few points below the obvious short-term resistance level and a break above this level could push S&P 500 futures higher. The moves across markets likely reflect short covering and that the market was getting too stretched in the short-term and the bond market for now wants to sit idle and wait for more data on US inflation. USD and US yields/risk sentiment The US dollar weakened on the usual combination of falling treasury yields after soft US data yesterday and as the market took treasury yields, particularly at the long end of the curve, sharply lower yesterday. The move is still within the range in many key USD pairs, with 0.9900+ at minimum needed for a bear-market-neutralizing reversal in EURUSD. And AUDUSD dropped overnight on the Australia’s reserve bank only hiking 25 basis points (more below) Elsewhere, the strength in GBPUSD is far more sterling related (see more below on Chancellor Kwarteng’s reversal of the most controversial of his tax cuts) and USDJPY is curiously bid near the top of the range after Japan’s September core, ex Food and Energy Tokyo CPI came in at the highest level in years. The status of the US dollar this week will likely be clear only after the release of the September jobs report on Friday. Gold (XAUUSD) and especially silver (XAGUSD) jumped on Monday … with support coming from multiple sources. A softer dollar and US ten-year bond yields slumping to 3.6% after hitting 4% last week leading to some speculation that we may in fact have hit peak hawkishness, meaning the FOMC faced with recession worries and calls for action to curb the dollar may start easing the tone going forward. Whether or not will be data dependent, but in the short term, these developments and worries about what Putin may do next has been enough to trigger short covering across the investment metal sector, not least in gold where the net short held by money managers reached a near four-year high last Tuesday. Silver is looking at resistance at $20.88, the August high and trendline support in XAUXAG around 81.20 Crude oil (CLX2 & LCOX2) extends gains on OPEC+ chatter, weaker USD Crude oil trades higher ahead of Wednesday’s OPEC+ meeting in Vienna as the alliance is considering a production cut of more than 1 million barrels/day to support prices following a 25% slump during Q3 2022. That would be the biggest cut since the pandemic with OPEC+ slashed production by 10 million barrels/day as demand collapsed. WTI futures rose above $83/barrel while Brent was close to $90. With several OPEC+ producers, including Russia, producing below target, only Saudi Arabia may be able to limit production without a loss in additional market share. Meanwhile, expectations of an earlier Fed pivot also stabilized demand weakness expectations. US treasuries (TLT, IEF) US treasury yields fell all along the curve yesterday, as the market pushed Fed hike expectations for early next year toward the lowest in two weeks and yields at the longer end of the curve fell sharply on the release of a weak September US ISM Manufacturing data point. The fall in yields already has the important 3.50% yield level for the 10-year treasury benchmark coming into view after 3.56% traded yesterday. The next important data points include tomorrow’s September ISM Services survey and particularly the September jobs report on Friday. What is going on? Fed pushes back on an earlier pivot Fed’s NY President John Williams repeated inflation is too high, and the Fed's job is not done, also saying that the monetary policy is still not in restrictive zone, pushing back on some calls for an earlier Fed pivot. He acknowledged signs of a slowdown in the housing sector or the consumer and business investment spending, but nothing that could deter the Fed from fighting inflation. On forecasts, he sees inflation likely down to 3% by next year (median view for Core PCE 3.1%), and the US is likely to see unemployment rise to 4.5% by end of 2023 (median view 4.4%). Thomas Barkin (2024 voter) made the case for more inflation in the post-pandemic world, noting that the Fed must consider global developments, but the focus is on the US. RBA hiked less than expected, signaling peak hawkishness could be behind it The RBA hiked rates by just 25 basis points (0.25%) rather than the 50 bps (0.5%) many expected, which takes the cash rate to 2.6%. The RBA’s hiking power has been diminished as household spending is dropping, along with forward looking projections. We know it typically takes around nine months for central bank policy tightening to felt in the economy, and the RBA said that higher inflation and interest rates are putting pressure on households, with the full effects yet to be felt. The RBA said that although consumer confidence and house prices have fallen, the central bank is still focused on slowing inflation which it sees increasing ‘over the coming months ahead’. In addition, the RBA expects unemployment will continue to fall over the months ahead, before rising. This means, the RBA could slow the pace of hikes after December onwards. Tesla shares plunged in a strong US session With US equities rallying 2.5% yesterday high beta and growth stocks were expected to lead the gains, but our bubble stocks basket was up only 1.5% and Tesla shares fell 8.6%. The EV-maker reported Q3 deliveries of 343,830 vs estimates of 357,938 which Tesla said was due to logistical issues in its supply chain. However, the move yesterday in Tesla indicates that investors are beginning to doubt the growth in 2023 that is priced into the price as the lithium continues to be prohibitively expensive and the cost-of-living crisis is lowering demand. Sterling made a strong recovery, but can it last? Cable was seen advancing above the 1.13 handle in Asian hours on Tuesday as it extended Monday’s gains following announcement by Chancellor Kwarteng of the intent to scrap the most controversial – and least impactful on the budget – recently announced tax cut for the highest income earners. A softer dollar also supported sterling’s gains amid a slide in US Treasury yields. Elsewhere, EURGBP also dropped into the old range below 0.8700. Still, the political situation in the UK remains volatile, the bulk of the fiscally aggressive tax adjustments and energy cap proposals remain in place, so the lack of trust in the new UK government cannot be ignored. Focus now on the BOE meeting on November 3 where 115bps rate hike is priced in, lower than last week’s pricing of 150bps. However, a full-budget statement will be released before then and will offer a further sentiment test for sterling. The Eurozone and the UK PMIs confirm the risk of a recession The manufacturing PMI indexes for September are out. There is no good news. In the eurozone, the final estimate was revised down to 48.4 from 48.5 and 49.6 in August. This is the biggest monthly contraction since June 2020 (when the eurozone was getting out from the Spring lockdown). There is no surprise regarding the main reasons behind the drop. This is related to soaring energy bills which limited production across all eurozone member countries and higher cost of living pushing demand lower. Firms are getting prepared for a tough winter and are starting to discuss the opportunity of lower job hiring (very soon the talk will be about cutting jobs). In the United Kingdom, the manufacturing PMI index is also in contraction territory, at 48.4. It was 47.3 in August. This was a 27-month low. However, it is unlikely to get back into expansion anytime soon, in our view. These indicators tend to confirm there is a material risk of a recession both in the eurozone and in the United Kingdom this year. US ISM manufacturing disappoints The headline for September’s US ISM manufacturing came in weaker than expectations at 50.9 from the prior month’s 52.8 and expected 52.2. Both employment and new orders both dropped into contractionary territory printing 48.7 (exp. 53.0, prev. 54.2) and 47.1 (prev. 41.3), respectively. The report showed that higher interest rates are starting to weigh on business investment sentiment, at least in the interest rate sensitive sectors. Still, the inflationary gauge of prices paid declined to 51.7 (exp. 51.9, prev. 52.5) falling for the sixth straight month. Supplier delivery times suggested some easing on the supply chains, but overall the report indicated the case of a slowdown in the US economy as rapid Fed tightening continues. What are we watching next? Risk sentiment brightens – how far can it extend? A hole in the clouds yesterday as US yields dropped on the weak ISM Manufacturing survey and as a rising tide of observers are concerned that the Fed is tightening policy too rapidly, including one heavily covered tweet from the influential WSJ “Fed whisperer” Nick Timiraos noting that Greg Mankiw, the influential former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under George W Bush had expressed approval of economist Paul Krugman’s view that the Fed is tightening too quickly. Hard to see this as more than a tactical turning point for markets, perhaps on overextended short positioning. The Fed’s tune has not changed, and the strongest pushback of developments over the last couple of sessions would be strong US data, including the September ISM Services tomorrow and the September jobs report on Friday. Earnings to watch The earnings season officially starts next week with the first group of US financials reporting but in the meantime a few earnings are worth watching this week. Biogen reports Q3 earnings (ending 30 September) today with analysts expecting revenue growth of -11% y/y and EBITDA at $847mn down from $959mn a year ago. While the current financial performance of Biogen is volatile and weak, the latest news about its breakthrough in Alzheimer’s with a drug that can slow down the disease is what analysts will focus on in terms of gauging the outlook. On Wednesday, Tesco is in focus as the UK largest grocery retailer is at the center of the current food inflation and insights from Tesco will be valuable from a macro point of view. Today: Biogen Wednesday: Keurig Dr Pepper, Aeon, Lamb Weston, Tesco, RPM International Thursday: Seven & I, Conagra Brands, Constellation Brands, McCormick & Co Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0900 – Eurozone Aug. PPI 1230 – ECB's Centeno to speak 1300 – US Fed’s Williams (voter) to speak 1315 – US Fed’s Mester (voter) to speak 1400 – US Aug. Factory Orders 1400 – US Aug. JOLTS Job Openings Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-oct-4-2022-04102022
RBA Governor Announces Major Changes at RBA Board as US Inflation Expected to Decline

Musk Revived His Bid For Twitter| OPEC Have Started Talking About Cuts With Russia

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 05.10.2022 09:11
Summary:  Oil rallies for the second day with OPEC+ considering an output cut as much as 2 million barrels a day, which is more than anticipated. US stocks rallied for the second day, moving off their lows on softer than expected labor market data that supported the notion of central bank peak hawkishness. The Reserve Bank of Australia hikes less than expected, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting ahead today. Also watch for the US ISM services print later, pivotal for Fed pivot expectations that are gaining momentum prematurely. What is happening in markets? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) rally for the second day, moving off lows US stocks rallied for the second day, rebounding from their deeply oversold levels with the S&P500 seeing its best two-day surge since April 2020. The S&P500 ended up almost 3.1% higher on Wednesday, the Nasdaq 100 up 3.1%. Retail favorite, Tesla (TSLA) shares revved up 2.9% after Cathie Wood scooped up 132,000 more shares in the electric vehicle giant. Tesla was among the biggest contributors to the S&P500’s gains, along with Amazon and Microsoft. For a detailed discussion of Tesla’s challenges ahead, please refer to Peter Garnry’s excellent article here. The Energy sector was the best performer in the S&P 500, gaining 4.3%, followed by Financials which were up 3.8%. Only seven stocks in the S&P500 closed in the red. However, the news of the day was that Twitter’s takeover by Musk is back on. On top of that, softer US economic data out also boosted sentiment, with the market thinking the Fed might not be as fierce with rate hikes later this month. US job openings sank to a 14-month low, following the day prior weaker than expected manufacturing data. So, perhaps a short-squeeze is fueling the rally here. U.S. treasury yields (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) declined modestly on the front end Treasury yields fell first on a dovish hike (25bps vs the 50bps expected) from the Reserve Bank of Australia during Asian hours and then on the biggest decline of the JOLTS job opening (10,053K vs prior 11,239K).  10-year yields made an intraday low at 3.56% before paring it and settled little changed at 3.63%.  The curve bull steepened with the front-end 2 to 5-year fell 2-3bps in yield and the 30-year yield edging up 1bp.  Australia’s ASX200 (ASXSP200.1) rallied above 6,700, snapping its downtrend The ASX200 charged 3.75% yesterday (including the 1.2% rise after the RBA’s pivoted to going softer on rate hikes) which took the market to its highest level since September 23 (just shy of 6,700, closing at 6,699). Today the market opened 0.8% up in the first 10 minutes of trading, with the futures implying the market could rise 1.6% on Thursday to 6,803. If the market can hold above 6,700 it means the market will effectively have broken its downtrend and is staging a comeback. This notion was supported by our technical analyst. For more read on here. EURUSD touches parity again Lower US yields and a softer US dollar is turning things around in the FX space, although pricing out the Fed rate hikes from 2023 appears to be premature. Some of this could also be the positioning ahead of key US NFP data due this week. EUR made a strong recovery on the back of a weaker dollar, as it rose from lows of 0.9800 to touch parity. Commentary from the ECB’s Villeroy also helped, as he said that interest rates will be raised as much as necessary to lower core inflation and called for rates to go to neutral by year-end without hesitation. Meanwhile, President Lagarde reiterated her view that inflation was undesirably high, and it is difficult to say whether or not it had peaked. Crude oil (CLX2 & LCOX2) higher on OPEC cut expectations Crude oil prices rose further amid speculation that OPEC is considering an even larger cut to production than first thought. The group is said to be considering a cut of up to 2mb/d, according to media reports. It is also being reported that the cuts will be made from current production levels and not the quotas as most members are already producing below their quota. That, if true, will likely tighten the market especially as European sanctions will kick in from December and US is also pausing the release from its strategic reserves. This tightness could be exacerbated by a rebound in Chinese demand if it can contain outbreaks of COVID-19. WTI futures rose above $86/barrel while brent crossed the key $90-mark. A significant draw was also reported in API inventories, with crude stocks down 1.77mn. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIU2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hong Kong is set to have some catch-up to do with the 5.7% gain in the S&P 500 and 6.1% rise in the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index when it returns from a public holiday today.  The stock markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen remain closed for the rest of the week for public holidays.     What to consider?   US JOLTs signalling the tightness in the labor market may be moderating US JOLTs data was out with a weaker than expected number. The number of job openings in the U.S. declined to 10.1 million in August, the lowest since June 2021, and below expectations of 10.8 million. The job openings rate was down to 6.2% from 6.9% in July, and puts the focus on the ADP data due today in the run upto the NFP data on Friday. OPEC+ meeting to bring production cuts There have been some reports that OPEC members have started talking about cuts with Russia proposing a 1 mln barrels per day cut, a reduction towards which they are unlikely to contribute much as they are already producing below their quota. At its last meeting on September 5, the group agreed a token reduction of 100,000 barrels a day for October, despite calls from consuming nations to help tame rampant inflation by keeping the taps open. With gasoline prices retreating in the US, some of that external pressure may now be easing, and that further raises the prospects of some price-supportive action. FT also reported the production cuts will be from current production levels, not from the quota's which many producers do not meet - emphasising the impact of the production cut. The credit market showed signs of calming down Over the past two days, the sharp rise in investment credit spreads has tentatively reserved, showing some sign of relief in the investment grade credit market.  The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index (CDX IG39), which represents an equal-weighted average of credit default swap spreads of 125 North American investment grade corporate, fell more than 6bps on Tuesday to 98bps, a decline of nearly 16bps from its intraday high of 114 last week. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting ahead The RBNZ will announce its latest monetary policy decision today. NZ house prices have seen one of their biggest quarterly drops on record in the three months to September. It’s worth watching the NZD against the AUD (NZDAUD) given their current account trajectories. RBA hiked less than expected, signaling peak hawkishness could be behind it. What does it mean to traders and investors? Yesterday the RBA rose rates by just 25bps (0.25%) instead of the 50bps (0.5%) expected, which took the cash rate to 2.6%. The RBA’s hiking power has been diminished as household spending is dropping, along with forward looking projections. We know it typically takes 3-months for an interest rate hike to be felt by the consumer, and the RBA alluded to this, in saying higher inflation and interest rates are putting pressure on households, with the full effects yet to be felt. The RBA referenced although consumer confidence and house prices had fallen, the central bank is still focused on slowing inflation which it sees increasing ‘over the coming months ahead’. Plus the RBA expects unemployment will continue to fall over the months ahead, before rising. This means, the RBA could slow the pace of hikes after December onwards. This implies peak hawkishness is behind us. AUDUSD fell 1% after the meeting however it since reversed those losses and trades 0.6% higher from the meeting. It’s been supported as the USD continued to roll over on expectations the Fed might not be as aggressive with rate hikes later this month. However if the Fed perhaps hikes by 0.75% the AUDUSD might revert back to a bearish stance. For investors, the RBA pivot supports a risk-on tone in equities which is why all 11 sectors rose yesterday, with tech and mining up the most. Energy markets saw the most gains as they have the most momentum amid the energy crisis. Lithium and agricultural stocks dominated the top 10 risers; with lithium stocks Sayona Mining (SYA), Lake Resources (LKE), Core Lithium (CXO), Pilbara Minerals (PLS) and Allkem (AKE), gaining 10%+ each. Musk revived his $44 billion Twitter bid send Twitter shares up 22% Billionaire Elon Musk revived his bid for the social media giant, at the original offer of $54.20 a share after spending months trying to back out of it. Shares of Twitter (TWTR) jumped almost 22% to $52.00 on the news. US ISM services will be key to watch today With chatter on Fed pivot gaining momentum out of a miss in one ISM manufacturing print, possibly also underpinned by the turmoil in the financial system, it will become more key to watch the services sector data out today. Consensus expects the number to be 56, down from 56.9, as higher interest rates and high inflation begins to eat into services spending after a solid post-pandemic rebound.     For a week-ahead look at markets – tune into our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/market-insights-today-5-oct-05102022
Bitcoin Stagnates at $30,000 Level, Awaits US Bitcoin ETF Update and Fed Meeting

Tesco Has Decided To Lock Everyday Items |The US Dollar (USD) Continued To Weaken

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 05.10.2022 09:32
Summary:  Another banner day for equity markets, which surged further on hopes that central banks will be increasingly easing off the gas pedal in coming weeks and months on signs that the impact of their tightening is wearing on economic growth. It’s counterintuitive and remains to be seen how equity markets will eventually greet recessionary outcomes for earnings and revenue in the quarters ahead. For now, the focus is tactical, particularly on whether the remaining US data this week through Friday’s jobs report will confirm this most recent narrative.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) US equities continued their rebound yesterday with S&P 500 futures hitting the big 3,800 level, but the index futures are coming down a bit this morning trading around the 3,785 level. The significant declines in US bond yields and chatter about a Fed pivot, this still has a low probability at this point, have been the catalyst behind the rebound and the fact that markets were very stretched added to size of the rebound as short covering have been taking place. In today’s session the ADP employment change and ISM Services Index are the key macro events that could add some fresh energy to the downside. Yesterday’s biggest negative change on record in the JOLTS Report suggests that the labour market is beginning to cool down. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIU2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) The Hong Seng Index soared over 5% to catch up with the S&P 500 Index’s 5.7% rally over the past two days after Hong Kong returned from a public holiday. Weaker U.S. economic data recently have helped fuel the notion of peak tightening from the Fed and contributed to the turnaround in global stocks this week. Index heavy-weights jumped, HSBC (00005:xhkg) up 6.3%, AIA (01299:xhkg) up 6.7%, Tencent (000700:xhkg) up 5.8%, Meituan (03690:xhkg) up 7.6%, and Alibaba (09988:xhkg) up 8.2%. BYD (01211:xhkg) soared nearly 10% after the Chinese automaker reported record sales of over 200,000 electric and hybrid vehicles in September, a growth of 183% from last year, and the seventh consecutive month of sales growth. The mainland exchanges remain closed for the rest of the week for the National Day golden week holiday. USD and US yields/risk sentiment The US dollar continued to weaken yesterday, particularly against European currencies as EURUSD touched parity briefly and as GBPUSD rose close to 1.1500 on a further change of tune from UK Chancellor Kwarteng, who is making noises about plans to bring forward debt-cutting measures in the new budget he will present later this month. An important test for the greenback lies ahead through the end of this week on macro data and its impact on US treasury yields, as noted below, as well as on risk sentiment. Gold (XAUUSD) and silver (XAGUSD) rise further Hopes that central banks will begin to ease away from the tightening of the last many months after a deceleration from the ECB and at least one weak US data point this week, saw yields a bit lower and precious metals surging, with Gold rushing higher yesterday after the break above the key 1,680-1,700 from Monday was solidified with a move above 1,725 at one point yesterday. Silver’s enormous jump on Monday was only followed up with a much smaller move yesterday. Next area of focus in gold will be the 1,734 area and then the major 1,800 zone. The strength in US macro data and direction of US yields key through Friday’s US jobs report (weak data and lower yields most gold supportive.) Crude oil (CLX2 & LCOX2) higher on larger OPEC cut expectations Crude oil prices rose further amid speculation that OPEC is considering an even larger cut to production than first thought. The group is said to be considering a cut of up to 2mb/d, according to media reports. It is also being reported that the cuts will be made from current production levels and not the quotas as most members are already producing below their quota. That, if true, will likely tighten the market especially as European sanctions will kick in from December and US is also pausing the release from its strategic reserves. This tightness could be exacerbated by a rebound in Chinese demand if it can contain outbreaks of COVID-19. WTI futures rose above $86/barrel while Brent crossed the key $90-mark. A significant draw was also reported in API inventories, with crude stocks down 1.77mn. US treasuries (TLT, IEF) US treasury yields recovered slightly after a further drop yesterday that took the 10-year benchmark to 3.56% at the lows, just ahead of the key 3.50% area former cycle high from June. Key data this week, including the ISM Services (far more important for the current status of the US economy than the ISM Manufacturing that garnered such a strong reaction on Monday) and the US September jobs report are likely to set the tone. What is going on? Twitter (TWTR:xnas) shares rose more than 20% as Elon Musk agrees to original takeover terms The shares of Tesla (TSLA:xnas) were down sharply on one point on the news before these in turn recovered to positive territory in a torrid rally for US equities yesterday. With Twitter’s closing price yesterday being close to the takeover price at $54.20 the downside risk remains now for Tesla shares in the event that Elon Musk is forced to sell more Tesla shares to finance the deal. US JOLTS job openings surveys signals that the tightness in the labor market may be moderating US JOLTs data was out with a weaker than expected number, declining to 10.1 million in August, the lowest since June 2021, and below expectations of 11.1 million and after 11.2 million in July. The job openings rate was down to 6.2% from 6.9% in July, and puts the focus on the ADP data due today in the run up to the nonfarm payrolls change data on Friday. New Zealand’s RBNZ hikes 50 basis points as expected This was the fifth consecutive meeting to bring a half-point hike and took the official cash rate to 3.5%. The bank signaled more tightening to come in its statement, as it noted that “core consumer price inflation is too high and labor resources are scarce. Still, short NZ rates continue to trade lower, if not falling as rapidly as for Australia after the RBA surprised with only a 25 basis point hike yesterday. The AUDNZD rate dropped below 1.1250 at one point overnight from the 1.1350 range before the announcement. Tesco 1H revenue beats estimate The largest Uk grocery retailer reports like-for-like UK revenue of +0.7% vs est. -0.1% but the company says that cost inflation is still significant. Tesco has also decided to lock over 1,000 everyday items at low prices until 2023 which could be negative for operating margin in the short-term. What are we watching next? Risk sentiment brightens – how far can it extend? Quite a short squeeze on bearish risk sentiment as global equities have backed up sharply, in many cases after touching new bear market lows – is this a bullish reversal with legs or will it fade quickly? Two prior bear market rallies in March and especially June-August impressed. For now, the tactical focus higher in the US equity market would be on the 3,800-3,900 zone, the next hurdle for establishing whether this squeeze will develop into something more, with the most immediate sentiment test likely the ISM Services survey today (more below) in the US and especially the jobs (and earnings) data on Friday, as it appears this rally was kicked off by a soft September ISM Manufacturing survey on Monday. UK Prime Minister Truss to deliver address at Tory conference today This is an important speech after the recent volatility in UK gilt markets, mostly attributable to policymaking from the Truss government, including generous caps on energy prices and tax cuts, that suggest little interest in maintaining long term credibility in government debt. US ISM services will be key to watch today With chatter on a Fed pivot gaining momentum out of a miss in one ISM manufacturing print, possibly also underpinned by the turmoil in the financial system on contagion from the wipeout and recovery in UK gilt markets over the last ten days, it will become more key to watch the services sector data out today. Consensus expects the number to be 56, down from 56.9, as higher interest rates and high inflation begin to eat into services spending after a solid post-pandemic rebound. Earnings to watch We had highlighted that Biogen would report earnings yesterday, but our earnings date data was incorrect, and the date is now set for the 18 October. Tesco has already reported earnings (see review above), so today’s remaining earnings focus is Lamb Weston which is a large US food company with analyst expecting FY23 Q1 (ending 31 August) revenue growth of 16% y/y and stable operating margin. Today: Lamb Weston, Tesco, RPM International Thursday: Seven & I, Conagra Brands, Constellation Brands, McCormick & Co Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0715-0800 – Eurozone final Sep. Services PMI 0830 – UK final Sep. Services PMI Poland Central Bank Rate Announcement 1215 – US Sep. ADP Employment Change 1230 – US Aug. Trade Balance 1230 – Canada Aug. Building Permits 1230 – Canada Aug. International Merchandise Trade 1400 – US Sep. ISM Services 1430 – US Weekly DoE Crude Oil and Product Inventories 2000 – US Fed’s Bostic (non-voter) to speak 0030 – Australia Aug. Trade Balance Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-oct-5-2022-05102022
On the New York Stock Exchange A Lot Of Shares Fell, The Biggest Losers Were Bit Brother Ltd And Avenue Therapeutics Inc

On the New York Stock Exchange A Lot Of Shares Fell, The Biggest Losers Were Bit Brother Ltd And Avenue Therapeutics Inc

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 06.10.2022 08:07
At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.14%, the S&P 500 fell 0.20%, and the NASDAQ Composite fell 0.25%. The leading performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today was Nike Inc, which gained 2.46 points or 2.78% to close at 91.10. Visa Inc Class A rose 2.02 points or 1.09% to close at 187.67. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated rose 3.90 points or 0.75% to close at 527.07. The biggest losers were Goldman Sachs Group Inc, which shed 5.87 points or 1.86% to end the session at 309.00. Shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co rose 1.38 points (1.23%) to close at 110.39, while Dow Inc shed 0.56 points (1.20%) to close at 46 .06. Leading gainers among the S&P 500 components in today's trading were Illumina Inc, which rose 6.56% to hit 218.52, Schlumberger NV, which gained 6.26% to close at 41.57, and Gap Inc, which rose 5.19% to end the session at 9.72. The biggest losers were Lumen Technologies Inc, which shed 9.45% to close at 7.28. Shares of Enphase Energy Inc shed 9.25% to end the session at 261.60. Quotes Vornado Realty Trust fell in price by 6.38% to 22.47. The leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Chardan Nextech Acquisition 2 Corp, which rose 102.63% to hit 21.54, Nauticus Robotics Inc, which gained 96.27% to close at 6.32. , as well as shares of Pineapple Holdings Inc, which rose 93.01% to end the session at 2.76. The biggest losers were Bit Brother Ltd, which shed 42.97% to close at 0.18. Shares of Avenue Therapeutics Inc shed 41.59% to end the session at 8.47. Quotes Scienjoy Holding Corp fell in price by 36.99% to 1.38. On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2102) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (991), while quotes of 107 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,313 companies fell in price, 1,443 rose, and 198 remained at the level of the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 1.79% to 28.55. Gold futures for December delivery shed 0.28%, or 4.90, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for November delivery rose 1.76%, or 1.52, to $88.04 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for December delivery rose 2.07%, or 1.90, to $93.70 a barrel. Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD fell 0.96% to hit 0.99, while USD/JPY edged up 0.35% to hit 144.60. Futures on the USD index rose 1.00% to 111.08.   Relevance up to 04:00 2022-10-07 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/295644
Asia Morning Bites: Focus on Regional PMI Figures, China's Caixin Manufacturing Report, and Upcoming FOMC Minutes and US Non-Farm Payrolls"

Chevron Corp Was The Top Gainer Among The Components Of The Dow Jones Index

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 07.10.2022 08:31
At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 1.15%, the S&P 500 fell 1.02%, and the NASDAQ Composite fell 0.68%. Chevron Corp was the top gainer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 2.89 points or 1.82% to close at 161.42. Quotes of Caterpillar Inc rose by 0.43 points (0.24%), closing the session at 178.81. Home Depot Inc rose 0.54 points or 0.19% to close at 290.39. The losers were 3M Company shares, which lost 4.05 points or 3.52% to end the session at 111.12. International Business Machines was up 2.79% or 3.51 points to close at 122.23 while Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc was down 2.74% or 0.91 points to close at 32.25. Among the S&P 500 index components gainers today were DexCom Inc, which rose 4.53% to hit 95.21, APA Corporation, which gained 4.15% to close at 42.20, and Occidental Petroleum Corporation, which rose 4.07% to end the session at 70.50. The biggest losers were shares of Carnival Corporation, which shed 6.19% to close at 6.97. Shares of SolarEdge Technologies Inc lost 5.96% to end the session at 220.27. Shares of Generac Holdings Inc fell 5.59% to 168.69. Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Green Giant Inc, which rose 168.57% to 1.88, Atlis Motor Vehicles Inc, which gained 95.45% to close at 24.49. as well as shares of InVivo Therapeutics Holdings Corp, which rose 83.03% to close the session at 7.98. The biggest losers were Jowell Global Ltd., which shed 45.36% to close at 1.53. Shares of Cyclerion Therapeutics Inc lost 37.57% to end the session at 0.59. Quotes of Top Ships Inc decreased in price by 35.22% to 6.40. On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2114) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (997), while quotes of 125 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,093 stocks fell, 1,655 rose, and 252 remained at the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 6.90% to 30.52. Gold futures for December delivery added 0.07%, or 1.20, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for November delivery rose 1.30%, or 1.14, to $88.90 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for December delivery rose 1.57%, or 1.47, to $94.84 a barrel. Meanwhile, on the Forex market, EUR/USD fell 0.87% to 0.98, while USD/JPY edged up 0.35% to hit 145.13. Futures on the USD index rose 1.03% to 112.15.   Relevance up to 05:00 2022-10-08 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/295838
Assessment Of The Chances Of A Future Rate Hike By The ECB| Lowering GDP Forecasts

Assessment Of The Chances Of A Future Rate Hike By The ECB| Lowering GDP Forecasts

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 07.10.2022 09:06
Summary:  U.S. stocks and bonds sold off after Fed officials reiterated the Fed’s determination to raise rates and keep rates restrictive. USDJPY returned to trade above 145, testing the Japanese authorities’ resolve to defend the yen and its yield curve control policy. AMD’s miss in Q3 revenue pre-announcement, followed by Samsung’s profit warning, is a precursor to what’s to come in the upcoming earnings season. Today, all eyes are on the U.S. employment report as a next test for the Fed pivot narrative that had developed this week before the pushback seen from Fed commentaries. What is happening in markets? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) declined in a light volume session U.S. stocks declined on Thursday, giving back further the rally earlier in the week. S&P500 dropped 1%, with 10 out of 11 sectors in the red with the exception of the energy sector which benefited from a 1.4% rise in WTI crude to USD89.1. Tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 was down 0.8%.  Hawkish Fed official commentaries kept investors cautious of taking on risks ahead of the employment report today and the CPI release next week.  The trading volume was light.  Twitter (TWTR:xnys) fell 3.7% as investors awaiting Musk’s acquisition of the company to complete. Social networking site Pinterest (PINS:xnys) surged 4.8% and game software developer Take-Two Interactive (TTWO:xnas) climbed 3.5% on analyst upgrades. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD:xnas) plunged nearly 4% during the extended-hour trading after the chip maker announced preliminary Q3 sales missing expectations.  U.S. treasury yields (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) cheapened on hawkish Fed official commentaries U.S. treasuries bear flattened on Thursday as the front end of the curve got cheaper on more pushbacks from the Fed’s Cook, Kashkari, and Waller to the idea of a Fed pivot.  Traders have taken the terminal Fed Fund rate expectation back up to 4.57% and a 77% probability of a 75bp rate hike in the November FOMC. 2-year yields surged 11bps to 4.26% and 10-year yields climbed 7bps to 3.82%.  Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIU2) took a pause after a strong rally the day before The Hang Seng Index took a pause after yesterday’s 5.9% rally, trading side-way throughout the day and finished 0.4% lower after a failed attempt to climb to positive territory in the early afternoon.  In anticipation of eventually removing all pandemic control restrictions for people arriving in Hong Kong, shopping malls, retailers, and airlines gained. In addition, the Hong Kong Government plans to give away 500,000 free air tickets to attract travellers to visit Hong Kong. Wharf Real Estate (01997:xhkg), which owns commercial properties, gained 4.7% and was the best performer in the benchmark index.  Chow Tai Fook, a jewelry retailer, climbed 1.4%. Cathay Pacific (0293:xhhg) gained 3.5% and China Eastern Airlines (00670:xhkg), China Southern Airlines (01055:xhkg), and China Airlines (00753:xhkg) surged from 5.7% to 6.9%. Automakers were laggards, with leading names falling from 2.5% to 7%. Despite the latest research note from a major U.S. investment bank forecasting a 30% drop in Hong Kong’s residential property prices on higher interest rates, shares of local developers finished the day with modest gains.  On the other hand, CIFI (00884:xhkg) tumbled 15.3% as the mainland China developer is in discussion with banks about posting an interest payment.  Alibaba (09988:xhkg) shed 1.2% following the news that the Shanghai Municipal Government removed Alipay from its list of high-tech companies which are entitled to tax benefits because Alipay failed to meet the requirement on spending on research and development.  The dollar rose on higher bond yields The DXY rose 0.9% to 112.2 on higher U.S. bond yields, gaining against G10 currencies.  The Aussie dollar sold off to 0.6410, approaching its September 28 ow of 0.6363. USDJPY moved back up to above 145, testing the Ministry of Finance’s resolve to cap the depreciation of the Yen. Crude oil (CLX2 & LCOX2) The energy market tightness concerns continued to underpin further gains in the oil market, with WTI futures now rising towards $89/barrel and Brent above $94 following a 2 million barrels/day cut announced by OPEC+. Other supply issues are also at play with European sanctions on Russian oil coming into effect this quarter, but the US may opt to release more from its strategic reserves to offset some of this decline in supply. Metals gain as LME places restrictions on Russian copper, zinc and aluminium The London Metal Exchange said it will restrict deliveries of some Russian metal. Starting immediately, metal from UMMC or its Chelyabinsk Zinc unit can only be delivered to LME warehouses if the owner can prove it won’t constitute a breach of recent sanctions on the firm’s co-founder, Iskandar Makhmudov. The industry has been grappling with the question of how to handle supplies from Russia - a major producer of aluminium, nickel and copper - since the invasion of Ukraine in February, and the debate has intensified over the past month. HG Copper (HGZ2) rose to a near one-month high of $3.59 before reversing gains later as a strong dollar weighed on investor appetite.   What to consider?   Fed officials reiterated hawkish comments With the markets anticipating a Fed pivot sooner rather than later, Fed members continue to send stronger hawkish signals with the clear message being higher for longer interest rates. Minneapolis President Kashkari (2023 voter) said the Fed is “quite a ways away form a pause in rate hikes” and “not seeing evidence that underlying inflation peaked”. Governor Cook said “restoring price stability likely will require ongoing rate hikes and then keeping policy restrictive for some time”. Fed Governor Waller joined the chorus saying that the Fed needs to continue to raise rates into early 2023. Charles Evans also reiterated that the Fed is heading to 4.5-4.75% by spring, and another 125bps of rate hikes is seen over the next two meetings. ECB minutes suggest inflation concerns The ECB minutes from the September 7-8 meeting were released, and suggested that another big rate hike after the last month’s 75bps move is in the cards. There was broad consensus that the key policy rates are still below neutral. While the assessment of economic performance sounded bleak, taming inflation remained the overarching objective and therefore further tightening is still expected. Markets currently fully price a 50bps rate hike for October, and an increasing chance of another 75bps move as well. Hong Kong’s PMI fell to the contractionary territory in September The S&P Global Hong Kong PMI fell to 48.0 in September from 51.2 in August, returning to the contractionary territory for the first time since March this year when Hong Kong was hit hard by an outbreak of COVID-19.  The S&P Global Hong Kong PMI surveys activities in manufacturing, wholesale, retail and services, and construction.  Among the sub-indices, the new order sub-index fell the most to 46.1 in September from 51.3 in August.  The new export orders sub-index deteriorated further to 45.9 from 47.4 in the prior month.  The output sub-index fell to 47.3 from 52.2 and the employment sub-index declined to 48.3 from 48.6.  Advanced Micro Devices (AMD:xnas) announced preliminary Q3 sales missing expectations AMD pre-announced Q3 revenues at around USD5.6 billion, much below its previous guidance of about USD6.7 billion. The company cited weaker demand for PC and a build-up of inventory in the PC supply chain for the poor performance. Later on, in the Asian session, Samsung pre-announced a weaker profit for Q3 as well, signalling the margin squeeze that is likely to become broader into the Q3 earnings season. Samsung said Q3 profit is likely to fall 32% as demand slumped. The World Bank cut India’s growth forecast by 1% point to 6.5% The World Bank reduced its forecast for India’s GDP growth in the year to March 2023 by 1% to 6.5%, citing a slowdown in the global economy and rising interest rates. This comes despite a double-digit growth in the April-June quarter and RBI’s 7% growth forecast for FY 2023, and generally reflects the tough global macro environment, along with some pullback in consumption as RBI raises rates. US NFP data key for markets The payrolls data is due in the US today, and it is likely to give out further signals on the tightness in the labor market even if we see some slight cooling in the headline print. Bloomberg consensus estimate stand at gains of 255k for September from 315k last month, with unemployment rate and average hourly earnings steady at 3.7% and 0.3% respectively. The annual rate of wage growth is expected to cool a notch. Initial jobless claims rose to 219k after a sub-200k print last week, but it does not feed directly into the NFP. With markets at the edge on whether to price in further Fed tightening or not, even a slight miss in the NFP data could result in some more calls of a Fed pivot, and greater Fed pushback will be needed to pushback easing expectations from 2023 market pricing.     For a week-ahead look at markets – tune into our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/market-insights-today-7-oct-2022-07102022
Hungary's Budget Deficit Grows, Raising Concerns Over Fiscal Targets

Samsung And Its Decline In Operating Income| Credit Suisse Is Trying To Buy Back Credit

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 07.10.2022 11:08
Summary:  Risk sentiment was wobbly yesterday, as yields continued to rise, with late Fed speakers in the US yesterday continuing to deliver a hawkish message. The US dollar has come roaring back, especially against the smaller currencies, ahead of today’s September US jobs report. Given Fed forecasts that it will continue to tighten even if unemployment were to begin rising, we may be some months from a pivot in the Fed’s message.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) US equities retreated yesterday with S&P 500 futures declining 1% yesterday as US bond yields are coming back higher towards the 4% as the US economy is still looking robust despite tighter financial conditions. S&P 500 futures are continuing lower this morning trading around the 3,740 level with the 3,700 level being the next natural gravitational point for the market on the downside. US Nonfarm Payrolls for September is of course today’s main event but it will probably not move much unless we see a big surprise to average hourly earnings figure m/m. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIU2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hang Seng Index sank for the second day in a row after the sharp rally on Wednesday. Chinese EV stocks tanked, with Li Auto (02015:xhkg) tumbling 16.1%, and Nio (09866:xhkg) and XPeng (09868:xhkg) down from 7% to nearly 9%. Investors were concerned about the severe competition in the EV industry with new entrants to the market and rising battery costs. China developer names plunged from 2% to 11% across the board as sentiment was clouded by CIFI’s (00884:xhkg) discussion with banks about posting an interest payment and a 2-notch downgrade to Caa1 by Moody’s for the developer’s senior unsecured debts. Hang Seng Index lost more than 1% by mid-day. Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges are closed for a national holiday and will return on Monday. USD and US yields/risk sentiment The US dollar bounced back strongly yesterday on the supportive combination of weak risk sentiment and higher US treasury yields, with EURUSD all the way back to 0.9800 this morning after flirting with parity just a couple of sessions ago. The USD strength was most pronounced against the smaller currencies with a pair like AUDUSD trading near the cycle low below 0.6400 ahead of the US jobs data. That combination of higher US yields and weak risk sentiment provides the strongest support for the greenback, with a strong US jobs report the most likely spark for a further rise. Very interesting ahead of the weekend that USDJPY remains pinned near the critical 145.00 level ahead of the US jobs data – will we see a volatility event and official intervention if strong US jobs data sends the pair over the edge? Gold (XAUUSD) Gold eased back lower on the fresh rise in US treasury yields and a stronger US dollar, but the retracement of the recent massive rally off the cycle low of 1,1615 has been fairly shallow, with the first support zone of note into 1,680-1,700 area. The most significant challenge to gold would be a strong US jobs report and further USD strength, but a full reversal of the latest rally wave would require a significant plunge. To the upside, the next resistance of note is the 1,1734 level (61.8% retracement of the big sell-off wave into the lows) and then the huge 1,800 area and pivot high of 1,808 in August. Crude oil (CLX2 & LCOX2) The energy market tightness concerns continued to underpin further gains in the oil market, with WTI futures now rising towards $89/barrel and Brent above $94 following a 2 million barrels/day cut announced by OPEC+. Other supply issues are also at play with European sanctions on Russian oil coming into effect this quarter, but the US may opt to release more from its strategic reserves to offset some of this decline in supply. US treasuries (TLT, IEF) US treasury yields rose all along the curve ahead of today’s important September US jobs report and the market’s attempts to express hope over the last week that the Fed is set to deliver a pivot to less hawkish guidance. The US 10-year benchmark traded this morning aove 3.80%, less than 20 basis points from the significant 4.00% level that was briefly touched during the UK gilt market wipeout that saw some contagion even into US treasuries. What is going on? AMD blasted on ugly outlook and Samsung shows 11% in operating income Advanced Micro Devices revealed preliminary Q3 sales yesterday ahead of its earnings report in coming weeks. These were at $5.6 billion versus company and analyst estimates of $6.7 billion, an enormous miss.  Weaker demand in the PC market was cited, with writedowns in inventories also playing a role. Shares traded more than 3% lower after hours late yesterday after having lost some 60% from late 2021 highs. Samsung is also part of the semiconductor industry has announced its preliminary Q3 results this morning showing operating income declined 11% as demand for consumer electronics is coming down hard. Fed officials reiterated hawkish comments With the markets anticipating a Fed pivot sooner rather than later, Fed members continue to send stronger hawkish signals with the clear message being higher for longer interest rates. Minneapolis President Kashkari (2023 voter) said the Fed is “quite a ways away from a pause in rate hikes” and “not seeing evidence that underlying inflation peaked”. Fed Governor Cook said “restoring price stability likely will require ongoing rate hikes and then keeping policy restrictive for some time”. Fed Governor Waller joined the chorus saying that the Fed needs to continue to raise rates into early 2023. The Chicago Fed’s Charles Evans (Voter 2023) also reiterated that the Fed is heading to 4.5-4.75% by spring, and another 125bps of rate hikes is seen over the next two meetings. Credit Suisse is trying to bolster sentiment by buying back credit The Swiss-based bank is offering this morning to buy back its own debt up to CHF 3bn. ECB minutes suggest inflation concerns The ECB minutes from the September 7-8 meeting were released yesterday and suggested that another big rate hike after the last month’s 75bps move is in the cards. There was broad consensus that the key policy rates are still below neutral. While the assessment of economic performance sounded bleak, taming inflation remained the overarching objective and therefore further tightening is still expected. Markets currently price heavy odds that the ECB will deliver a 75 bp hike. Hong Kong’s PMI fell to the contractionary territory in September The S&P Global Hong Kong PMI fell to 48.0 in September from 51.2 in August, returning to the contractionary territory for the first time since March this year when Hong Kong was hit hard by an outbreak of COVID-19. The S&P Global Hong Kong PMI surveys activities in manufacturing, wholesale, retail and services, and construction. Among the sub-indices, the new order sub-index fell the most to 46.1 in September from 51.3 in August. The new export orders sub-index deteriorated further to 45.9 from 47.4 in the prior month. The output sub-index fell to 47.3 from 52.2 and the employment sub-index declined to 48.3 from 48.6. What are we watching next? Today's US September jobs report and the fate of the “pivot” narrative Fed speakers of late, including those late yesterday, continue to deliver a consistent message of continuing the current tightening regime, and given the Fed’s forecast that it will continue to tighten even as unemployment begins to rise (September forecasted a rise to a 4.4% unemployment rate next year vs. 3.7% currently), we are likely at least many months from the Fed blinking due to a softening labor market. The Sep. Nonfarm payrolls change is expected near +260k after +315k in August and the Average Hourly Earnings are seen rising +0.3% MoM and +5.0% YoY – the latter would be the slowest pace of wage growth since December. Earnings to watch The Q3 earnings season kicks off next week with the most important day being Friday with seven large US financial institutions reporting. The key focus points will be to what extent US banks are able to increase their net interest margin and the levels of credit provisions. Wednesday: PepsiCo Thursday: Progressive, Fast Retailing, Tryg, Walgreen Boots Alliance, Fastanal, BlackRock, Delta Air Lines, Domino’s Pizza Friday: Shanghai Putailai New Energy, YTO Express Group, PNC Financial Services, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, UnitedHealth Group, Wells Fargo, US Bancorp, First Republic Bank Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 1100 – Mexico Sep. CPI 1230 – US Sep. Nonfarm Payrolls Change 1230 – US Sep. Unemployment Rate 1230 – US Sep. Average Hourly Earnings 1230 – Canada Sep. Employment Change/Unemployment Rate 1400 – US Fed’s Williams (Voter) to speak 1500 – US Fed’s Kashkari (Voter 2023) to speak 1600 – US Fed’s Bostic (Voter 2024) to speak Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-oct-7-2022-07102022
Kiwi Faces Depreciation Pressure: RBNZ Expected to Hold Rates Amidst Downward Momentum

The Chances Of The Fed For 75bp Rate Hike Increased After The Strong Report|European Stock Indices Are In A Downtrend

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 08.10.2022 08:06
Stocks opened lower and Treasury yields rose as the strong report reaffirmed bets that the central bank would continue to be aggressive with its tightening campaign. Odds of a 75-basis point hike increased to a certainty following the report. Aside from the anxiety that usually precedes these numbers, traders had to digest remarks from a raft of Federal Reserve speakers who sounded unequivocally committed to crushing inflation with rate hikes. The hawkish rhetoric helped push the S&P 500 to its second straight day of losses, while lifting the dollar and Treasury yields. Oil topped $88 a barrel. European stock indices are in a downtrend with the target of updating year lows: This is the last jobs report Fed officials will have before their November policy meeting as they consider a fourth-straight 75-basis point interest rate hike. Fresh inflation data coming out next week will also play a fundamental role in their decision making. The report is projected to show the depth and breadth of the Fed's inflation problem, with a key indicator of consumer prices potentially worsening. The Moscow Exchange Index failed to hold above 2,000 and continued its decline: Key events this week: US unemployment, wholesale inventories, non-farm payrolls, Friday Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden speaks at event, Friday Fed's John Williams speaks at event, Friday   Relevance up to 17:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323750
China’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang Downplayed Russia’s Invasion Into Ukraine

Putin's Reaction To The Outbreak | 36.4% Less Passenger Travel In China

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 10.10.2022 09:22
Summary:  S&P 500 plunged 2.8% following a decline of U.S. unemployment to 3.5% in September, signing a tight labor market and providing cover for the Fed to front-load larger rate hikes. U.S. treasury yields and the dollar continued to charge higher. The AUD dollar fell to a 2.5-year low. WTI crude jumped 5.4% as the OPEC+ production quota cut continued to linger. The U.S. tightened its restrictions on the export of semiconductor technology to China. Putin called an emergency meeting with his Security Council. What is happening in markets?   Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) retreated on a hot labour market After a stronger-than-expected payroll report and a decline in the unemployment rate to 3.5%, U.S. stocks slid throughout the session and managed only to bounce slightly from the lows toward the market close.  S&P 500 plunged 2.8%, with all 11 sectors of the benchmark declining.  The information technology and consumer discretionary sectors fell the most, down 4.1% and 3.5% respectively. On the back of a 5.4% jump in crude oil prices during the day, the energy sector was the best performer, losing only 0.7%. Nasdaq 100 tumbled 3.9%.  Advanced Micro Devices (AMD:xnas) fell the most among the NDX constituents, down 13.9%, following slashing over USD1 billion from its revenue guidance for Q3. Close behind was another semiconductor name, Marvel Technology, falling 11.7%. Intel (INTC:xnas) and NVIDIA (NVDA:xnas) plunged 5.4% and 8% respectively.  The Biden administration issued new rules to restrict American companies from exporting advanced chip equipment to China.  CVS Health (CVS:xnys) plunged 10.5% after being downgraded to a worse-than-average quality rating from Medicare Advantage’s Star Ratings and on its plan to acquire Cano Health (CANO:xnys).  Trading desk talks suggested large short-selling initiated in financials while short-covering was prevailing in the energy space. This week could be another pivotal moment for markets with the U.S. earnings season kicking off, the September FOMC minutes, and the US CPI. U.S. treasury yields (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) climbed from 5bps to 7bps across the curve on the fall in the unemployment rate to 3.5% U.S. treasuries sold off on the larger-than-expected +263K print of the non-farm payrolls and the 3.5% unemployment rate (vs 3.7% expected), with the belly of the curve being hit most.  5-year yields jumped 7bps to 4.14%, while 2-year yields climbed 5bps to 4.31% and 10-year yields moved up 6pbs to 3.88%.  The money market curve now prices in a 75bp hike almost a done deal for the November FOMC. The cash treasury bond market is closed on Monday for Columbus Day (but U.S. stock exchanges are open).  Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIU2) fell in light volume with China property and EV stocks underperforming Hang Seng Index sank for the second day in a row after the sharp rally on Wednesday, falling 1.5%. Chinese EV stocks tanked, with Li Auto (02015:xhkg) tumbling 14.8%, Nio (09866:xhkg) plunging 10.5%, and XPeng (09868:xhkg) moving down 6%. The collapse of EV stock prices contributed significantly to the 3.3% decline of the Hang Sent Tech Index (HSTECH.I).  Investors were concerned about the severe competition in the EV industry with new entrants to the market and rising battery costs.  China developer names plunged from 2% to 9% across the board as sentiment was clouded by CIFI’s (00884:xhkg) discussion with banks about posting an interest payment and a 2-notch downgrade to B3 (long-term rating) and Caa1 (senior unsecured debts) by Moody’s. CIFI and Longfor (00960:xhkg), each tumbled over 8%.  Turnover in the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong hit a new 2022 low at HKD57 billion. Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges were closed for the National Day holiday the whole last week and are returning today.   Australia’s ASX200 (ASXSP200.1) tipped to open the week lower, while focus remains on commodities The ASX200 charged 4.5% last week outperforming global markets, with the rally being supported by commodity prices moving higher, including iron ore. On Monday the Futures indicate the market could fall 0.9% following Wall Street. Trading screens will likely be in the green (black) in the commodity sector, after the oil price rallied 4.7% to $92.62. A focus will also be on iron ore companies as after China’s markets reopen after a weeklong holiday, and China is the largest buyer of iron ore. It’s also worth noting the US listed BHP closed just 0.8% lower on Friday, outperforming US equites. Other stocks to watch might include; Karoon Energy (KAR), after Brazil agreed to lower the royalty rate on the company’s Bauna project. Core Lithium (CXO) and NRW Holdings (NWH) will also be in focus after NRW’s Primero won a contract for Core Lithium’s plant. And Tabcorp (TAH) will also be in view for traders, after investing $33 million for a 20% equity stake in Dabble Sports.  The U.S. dollar climbed modestly on higher bond yields Higher bond yields lifted the dollar, seeing DXY 0.4% higher to 112.795.  USDJPY hovered above 145 but is yet to make a decisive upward move again to test the resolve of Japan’s Ministry of Finance.  EURUSD weakened -.5% to 0.9744 and GBPUSD declined 0.7% to 1.1089. The Australian dollar (AUDUSD) fell to a 2.5-year low, as the Fed gained more ammunition to hike   The AUD/USD fell 0.7% to 0.6361, which is its lowest level since April 2020. This follows the US jobs report coming out on Friday, which gives the Fed more ammunition to rise rates. Keep in mind, a currency generally appreciates when its central bank rises rates. This is in deeded one of the key reasons why the USD is marching up. And when you compare the Fed’s hawkishness to the RBA’s fresh dovish tone, it makes this currency pair an interesting one to watch, particularly with this week’s US economic data and Fed speeches on tap. On the weekly chart it could worth watching the support level at perhaps 0.61670.   Crude oil (CLX2 & LCOX2) surged more than 5% The front-month contract of WTI crude gained 5.4% to USD92.64 despite a modestly higher U.S. dollar. The production quota cut last Wednesday continued to provide support to crude prices.  Since OPEC+ announced the production quota cut, WTI crude oil prices have risen 7.7%.  While many news headlines say it is a production cut of 2 million barrels, we want to clarify here that the 2 million barrels number is referring to the quota, not production.  However, 15 out of the 23 oil-producing countries involved produced below their current levels of allocated quotas in September 2022. 13 of these oil-producing countries produced less oil in the last month than the reduced quotas to be implemented in November.  In other words, the reduced quotas will cut oil production in 10 countries if they adhere to cap the quota.  Having said that, the cut will still be about 1.3 million barrels a day effectively and it is still substantial, from Saudi Arabia (552,000 barrels), UAE (171,000 barrels), Iran (150,000 barrels), Kuwait (144,000 barrels), Libya (100,000 barrels), Iraq (69,000 barrels), Algeria (43,000 barrels), Gabon (28,000 barrels), South Sudan (21,000 barrels, and Oman (21,000 barrels).   What to consider?   US Unemployment Rate fell 0.2 percentage points to 3.5% Nonfarm payroll growth lowered to +263K in September, down from August’s +315K but slightly above the median forecast of +255K of Bloomberg’s survey.  Major areas of strength in the establishment report (i.e. payrolls) were healthcare, leisure, and hospitality while trade and transportation employment was weak. The market moving part in the cluster of data was the 0.2pp decline in the unemployment rate to 3.5% in September from 3.7% in August which the market had expected unchanged at 3.7%.  Part of the fall in the unemployment rate was attributed to a 0.1pp decline in the labor force participation rate to 62.3% from 62.4%. Investors and trades are concerned about the inability of the participation rate to sustain its rally toward 63 or higher so as to dampen upward pressure on wages. Average hourly earnings came in as expected at +0.3% M/M and +5% Y/Y.  FedEx’s ground delivery unit expects a slower volume ahead FedEx Ground, the ground delivery unit of FedEx (FDX:xnys) said in a statement that they are expecting “weakening macroeconomic conditions are causing volume softness. The unit is working with its customers on the latter’s projected shipping needs and making adjustments.  The U.S. tightened restrictions on exporting semiconductor equipment, components, and high-end chips to China The U.S. Department of Commerce rolled out new regulations last Friday to prohibit American companies from exporting to Chinese companies advanced semiconductor equipment and components that can be used to make equipment without first applying for a license from the Department of Commerce effective immediately. The Department of Commerce’s new rules bans U.S. persons from providing support to the development or production of semiconductors at Chinese semiconductor facilities without a license from the Department of Commerce.  The Department of Commerce also tightened the Foreign Direct Product Rule to restrict China from obtaining advanced microchips that can be used in supercomputers and artificial intelligence applications from American companies as well as foreign companies that rely on American technologies. Tourism data was weak for the National Day Golden Week holiday in China According to data from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, domestic trips and revenues for the period from Oct 1 to 7 were 18.2% and 26.2% lower than those in the same period last year respectively.  According to estimates from the Ministry of Transport, the aggregate number of passenger trips via roads, railways, waterways and aviation from Oct 1 to 7 was 255.5 million trips or 36.5 million trips per day on average, which was 36.4% lower than that in 2021. Putin is chairing a meeting with his Security Council on Monday Russian President Putin is going to chair a meeting with the permanent members of the Russian Security Council today. It was apparently in response to the explosion two days ago that seriously damaged the Kerch bridge which links Crimea with Russia.   For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/market-insights-today-10-oct-10102022
Asia Morning Bites: Focus on Regional PMI Figures, China's Caixin Manufacturing Report, and Upcoming FOMC Minutes and US Non-Farm Payrolls"

Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc Was The Leading Gainer In The Dow Jones Index

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 11.10.2022 08:15
At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones was down 0.32%, the S&P 500 was down 0.75% and the NASDAQ Composite was down 1.04%. Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc was the leading gainer in the Dow Jones Index today, up 1.32 points or 4.33% to close at 31.84. Merck & Company Inc rose 2.88 points or 3.29% to close at 90.48. Boeing Co rose 2.11 points or 1.63% to close at 131.90. The losers were Salesforce Inc, which shed 4.65 points or 3.09% to end the session at 145.64. Microsoft Corporation was up 2.13% or 4.99 points to close at 229.25, while Walt Disney Company was down 2.06% or 2.00 points to close at 95. 16. Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc, which rose 4.33% to 31.84, Moderna Inc, which gained 3.44% to close at 123.42, and also shares of McCormick & Company Incorporated, which rose 3.30% to end the session at 75.86. The biggest losers were Wynn Resorts Limited, which shed 12.25% to close at 64.14. Shares of Bio-Rad Laboratories Inc shed 8.33% to end the session at 393.19. Quotes Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd fell in price by 7.91% to 11.88. Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Applied DNA Sciences Inc, which rose 70.97% to 2.12, Immunic Inc, which gained 56.57% to close at 6.20, and also shares of Green Giant Inc (NASDAQ:GGE), which rose 39.26% to end the session at 2.27. Shares of Siyata Mobile Inc were the biggest losers, losing 59.33% to close at 0.12. Shares of Minim Inc lost 29.38% and ended the session at 0.23. Quotes of Acm Research Inc decreased in price by 26.50% to 9.04. On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2031) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1053), while quotes of 120 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,297 companies fell in price, 1,471 rose, and 191 remained at the level of the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 3.48% to 32.45. Gold futures for December delivery lost 2.01%, or 34.40, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for November delivery fell 1.89%, or 1.75, to $90.89 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for December delivery fell 2.08%, or 2.04, to $95.88 a barrel. Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair was unchanged 0.40% to 0.97, while USD/JPY was up 0.27% to hit 145.73. Futures on the USD index rose 0.36% to 113.09.   Relevance up to 05:00 2022-10-12 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/296222
Bank Of France (BoF) Expects Lower GBP For Q3 And The Situation On Phosphate Fertilizer Mining Industry

Bank Of France (BoF) Expects Lower GBP For Q3 And The Situation On Phosphate Fertilizer Mining Industry

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 11.10.2022 13:05
Summary:  Sentiment remains wobbly as US equity markets edged toward the cycle lows yesterday, with the interest rate sensitive Nasdaq 100 index even posting a new bear market low as US yields lifted higher once again. Fed Vice Chair Brainard voiced the first cautious comments we have seen in a while on the effects of the Fed’s policy tightening even as she argued that tightening will continue. Ahead of the largest US banks kicking off earnings season on Friday, JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon says he expects a US recession in six to nine months.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) US equities continued lower yesterday with S&P 500 futures touching the 3,600 level again before bouncing back a bit into the close. This morning the index futures are trading around the 3,608 level with the 3,593 level being the key level on the downside to watch. With the US 10-year yield back at the 4% level this morning we expect the pressure to continue in US equities and our thesis is also that the upcoming Q3 earnings season starting this week will lead to earnings downgrades and disappointments in the outlook. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIU2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Stocks traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses stabilized and traded little changed from yesterday’s closes, with power generation and lithium producers gaining. Guangzhou Tinci Materials (002709:xsec) was 10% limit up and CATL (300750:xsec) rose 5%. CATL preannounced Q3 net income surging 169-200% Y/Y to RMB8.8-9.8 billion. China National Nuclear Power (601985:xssc) surged 7.2% after the company reported a 7.2% Y/Y electricity output growth in the first 9 months of the year. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index continued to slide, falling around 2% with China Internet names leading the charge lower. Alibiba(09988:xhkg), Tencent (00700:xhkg), JD.COM (09618:xhkg), Meituan (03690:xhkg), Bilibili (09626:xhkg) declined from 3% to nearly 9%. USD and US yields/risk sentiment USD strength continues as risk sentiment remains wobbly and the entire US treasury yield curve lifted once again, taking the 10-year treasury yield back to the key 4.00% cycle high area. USDJPY continued its tentative move above 145.00, closing in on 146.00 with no official response yet, while AUDUSD posted impressive new lows near 0.6250 overnight and USDCNH is pushing on the 7.20 level once again – the former range top from 2019 and 2020. EURUSD and especially GBPUSD have some more range to work with before posting cycle lows. The next test for the US dollar will be tomorrow’s FOMC minutes, but the event risk of the week will be Thursday’s September US CPI data point and whether traders feel a single month’s data can meaningfully shift the Fed’s stance, given evidence of a still very tight labor market. Gold (XAUUSD) Gold’s short-covering driven rally from last week continues to fade as the dollar regains strength and the US bond yields return to their recent peaks as the prospect for further and aggressive monetary-policy tightening weighs on the market. The latest COT report covering the week to October 4 showed funds changing their net position from the biggest short in almost four years to a small net long. With renewed dollar strength in focus the risk of fresh albeit more muted short selling exists with gold’s renewed upside push unlikely until the market feels convinced that the Fed has reached peak hawkishness. Support at $1658 with a break below signaling the risk of an even deeper retreat. Focus this week on US PPI and CPI prints. Crude oil (CLX2 & LCOZ2) trades lower on renewed demand concerns Last week’s OPEC driven price jump faded further overnight with the risk sentiment once again souring across markets on worries the global economy, including the US, will face a very challenging 2023. In addition, the authorities in China have signaled there will be no letup in their steadfast belief in the nation’s Covid zero policy, thereby potentially prolonging a slump in demand from the world’s biggest importer. For now, the time spreads in Brent continue to signal tightness with the December contract trading 9% above the June 2023 contract. Monthly oil market reports from the EIA and OPEC on Wednesday and the IEA on Thursday will be watched closely for any changes in the supply and demand outlook. Wheat futures (ZWZ2 & WHEATDEC22) jump to a three-month high The December benchmark wheat contract in Chicago surged to near the daily limit on Monday amid worsening Russia/Ukraine tensions and a worsening US crop outlook. Any slowdown in shipments of high protein wheat from the Black Sea may boost prices further and before the latest escalation shipments from Ukraine are already being delayed as the backlog of outbound vessels awaiting inspection in Istanbul has increased. The Ukraine grain export agreement comes up for renewal next month and with Russia losing the war the risk of further desperate measures may put the deal at risk. The rally in December wheat ran out of steam above $9.45 and may now pause ahead of a key crop report from the US Department of Agriculture on Wednesday. US treasuries (TLT, IEF) US treasury yields continued lifting late yesterday and overnight after a the bank holiday in the US yesterday. This has taken the 10-year treasury benchmark yield back close to the round 4.00% level that is a significant psychological milestone and near the 14-year high for the benchmark. Yields rose even as Fed Vice Chair Brainard voiced the first cautious notes we have heard in a while from an important Fed figure (see more below). The next key test for yields as we believe we are nearing “peak hawkishness” from the Fed soon, is more Thursday’s US CPI data point than tomorrow’s FOMC minutes, which may contain few surprises, given nearly all Fed members are on the same page in supporting the current tightening regime. What is going on? The UK government brings forward its budget plans to 31 October The UK government will announce its fiscal plan at the end of this month, more than three weeks earlier than initially scheduled. The plan is built on the ‘mini-budget’ of 45 billion pounds presented in September. It triggered a rout in financial markets which forced the Bank of England to step in the market. The advance release is aimed to appease markets and to provide insights on how the government will pay for tax cuts and what their long-term impact would be. On 31 October, the Office for Budget Responsibility will also publish its latest forecasts, including an impartial assessment of the macroeconomic consequences of the ‘mini-budget’. Fed Vice Chair Brainard signals peak hawkishness approaching, but still higher for longer rates Lael Brainard sounded a small note of caution on Fed’s tightening, saying that it will take time for rate hikes to bring inflation down while also highlighting slowing growth, cooling labor market and financial vulnerabilities. Still, she reaffirmed that monetary policy will be restrictive for some time. Charles Evans remained in favor of front loading, saying that the Fed should quickly reach levels where policymakers feel comfortable pausing to reduce the risk of overshooting. BoE on course to end buyback operations but announced fresh liquidity measures The Bank of England announced it remains on course to end its temporary buy-back auctions at the end of the week and is switching to liquidity support via expanded collateral repos, also for a limited period to help banks with customers that are not entirely hedged against LDI exposure. Gilts plunged as investors remained worried, with 30-year yields rising above 4.7% and 20-year touching a high of 4.9%. Meanwhile, the medium-term fiscal plan is to be published on October 31, just before the next MPC rate meeting, which at the least means a more informed decision may be possible. The Bank of France lowers its Q3 GDP forecast Yesterday, the Bank of France lowered its Q3 GDP forecast to 0.25 % versus prior 0.3% mostly due to poor industrial activity. Without much surprise, industrial companies are in a tough spot because of the energy crisis, supply chain disruptions, and a tight labour market. So far, the recession is not the central bank’s baseline. However, most economists expect France will not avoid a recession next year (with a drop of GDP between -0.2 % and -0.7 % in 2023 depending on the forecasting institutes). Chicago wheat futures jumped nearly 3% in early trading ... underpinned by concerns over the Russia-Ukraine war slowing grain shipments from the Black Sea region. This after Putin accused Ukraine of orchestrating the explosion on the bridge over the Kerch Strait, a key prestige project for the Russian President. The developments cast even more uncertainty over shipments to the world market through Ukraine’s export corridor in the Black Sea, which comes up for renewal next month. Dozens of grain-hauling vessels are already backing up while awaiting inspection at Istanbul under the terms of the deal. TSMC shares down 8% on more US restrictions on semiconductors The US has added new restrictions on exports of semiconductors used in AI and supercomputing, in addition to new restrictions on equipment used in semiconductor manufacturing to any Chinese companies. It is estimated that that the new restrictions will cost the company 5-8% of its revenue. Paul Tudor Jones is getting ready for a recession The famous macro trader said in an interview yesterday that his trading firm is getting ready to deploy its recession playbook. The key dynamics according to Tudor Jones are recessions last 300 days, equities fall 10% on average, short-term bond yields will start to go down before bottom in equities, term premium will increase both in equities and bonds, earnings multiples will compress, and the Fed will either halt or slow rate hikings. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon joins recession crowd In a speech yesterday Jamie Dimon added a negative jolt to the market saying that a global recession was likely in the next 6-9 months due to the rising interest rates and the war in Ukraine. What are we watching next? Fertilizer supply at risk amid fresh Russian tensions and Hurricane Ian aftermath Amid fresh tension from Russian upon Ukraine, fertilizer producers have once again been put in the spotlight on supply concerns. Equities in APAC involved in phosphate/fertilizers rose today as a result; so, it’s worth watching stocks in the sector across Europe and the US. The phosphate fertilizer mining industry’s supply has already been put at risk after Hurricane Ian hit Florida, impacting more than 1 billion ‘stacks’ of supply. Russia is the world’s largest supplier of nitrogen-based fertilizers; however, its supply was slimmed from embargoes after launching attacks against Ukraine. The economic calendar for the week picks up on Wednesday ... with the latest set of FOMC minutes, but the highlight of the week will be Thursday’s US September CPI report, after the August data surprised with significantly higher than expected inflation. Friday we get a look at US September retail sales after core spending has been on a declining trend, measured month-on-month, since early this year. Earnings to watch The Q3 earnings season kicks off this week, with the most important day being Friday, as seven large US financial institutions reporting. The key focus points will be to what extent US banks are able to increase their net interest margin, which they did in Q2, and the levels of credit provisions in Q3. Wednesday: PepsiCo Thursday: Progressive, Fast Retailing, Tryg, Walgreen Boots Alliance, Fastenal, BlackRock, Delta Air Lines, Domino’s Pizza Friday: Shanghai Putailai New Energy, YTO Express Group, PNC Financial Services, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, UnitedHealth Group, Wells Fargo, US Bancorp, First Republic Bank Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0700 – Czechia Sep. CPI 1000 – US Sep. NFIB Small Business Optimism 1245 – ECB Chief Economist Lane to speak 1600 – US Fed’s Mester (Voter 2022) to speak 1645 – Switzerland SNB Chair Jordan to speak 1700 – US 3-year Treasury Auction 1800 – UK Bank of England’s Cunliffe to speak 1835 – UK Bank of England Governor Bailey to speak Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-oct-11-2022-11102022
EUR/USD Trading Analysis and Tips: Navigating Signals and Volatility

On The New York Stock Exchange, 1818 Of Securities Fell In Price

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 13.10.2022 08:00
At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones was down 0.10%, the S&P 500 was down 0.33% and the NASDAQ Composite was down 0.09%. The leading performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today was JPMorgan Chase & Co, which gained 1.65 points (1.62%) to close at 103.61. Quotes of Coca-Cola Co rose by 0.66 points (1.21%), closing trading at 55.14. Intel Corporation rose 0.29 points or 1.16% to close at 25.33. The biggest losers were Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc, which shed 0.67 points or 2.05% to end the session at 31.94. Walmart Inc was up 1.13% or 1.50 points to close at 131.17, while Boeing Co was down 0.87% or 1.15 points to close at 130.42. . Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd, which rose 11.48% to 45.36, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd, which gained 11.61% to close at 12. 98, as well as shares of Carnival Corporation, which rose 9.79% to close the session at 7.29. The biggest losers were Albemarle Corp, which shed 7.89% to close at 251.45. Shares of T. Rowe Price Group Inc lost 5.14% to end the session at 98.07. Quotes of Entergy Corporation decreased in price by 4.52% to 96.58. Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Pintec Technology Holdings Ltd, which rose 191.16% to hit 0.91, Agrify Corp, which gained 88.02% to close at 0.95, and also shares of 9F Inc, which rose 83.42% to close the session at 0.35. The biggest losers were Fednat Holding Co, which shed 33.87% to close at 0.22. Shares of T2 Biosystms Inc lost 30.00% and ended the session at 0.06. Kinnate Biopharma Inc lost 26.65% to 8.12. On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (1818) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1274), while quotes of 132 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 1,902 stocks fell, 1,820 rose, and 278 remained at the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 0.18% to 33.57. Gold futures for December delivery shed 0.33%, or 5.50, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for November delivery fell 2.70%, or 2.41, to $86.94 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for December delivery fell 2.13%, or 2.01, to $92.28 a barrel. Meanwhile, in the forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.03% to 0.97, while USD/JPY edged up 0.70% to hit 146.88. Futures on the USD index rose 0.06% to 113.19.   Relevance up to 05:00 2022-10-14 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/296618
EUR: Stagflation Returns Amid Weaker Growth and Sticky Inflation

Japanese Yen (JPY) Suffers The Most, Expectations For The Chinese Economy (CPI, Export)

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 14.10.2022 10:48
Summary:  A choppy session in equity and bond markets despite a hot US CPI print for September pushing up Fed funds rate expectations by over 25bps on the terminal rate projections which limits the room for Fed officials to out-hawk the markets. Japanese yen suffers the biggest blow as intervention remains weak, while GBP and Gilts generally supported higher with another potential U-turn in UK fiscal plan. Further tightening from Monetary Authority from Singapore boosts the SGD, and China’s CPI will be on watch in the Asian session before Bank earnings take away the limelight later in the day. What’s happening in markets? The Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) indices plunged after hot CPI data then whipsawed higher, moving in a ~5% range Core inflation (which excludes volatile food and energy items) rose to a 40-year high in September which gives the Federal Reserve reason to continue with its aggressive interest-rate hikes. The Nasdaq 100 fell over 3% and the S&P500 fell 2.35% before both major indices whipsawed higher with the Nasdaq ending up 2.3% and the S&P500 up 2.6%. Short covering and macro trading would have played a huge role in the reason markets whipsawed higher. ETF volume accounted for 39% of the turnover, just a touch lower than the record high of 40%. In terms of sectors, financials and energy led the benchmark index higher. Amid the energy crisis, there are the most rising-free cash flows in energy markets, which offer value. U.S. treasury yields (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) made new highs before waning U.S. treasuries had a volatile after the hot CPI prints. Now the money market fully prices in a 75bps hike in the November FOMC and a terminal rate of 4.9% early next year. The front end of the treasury curve was hit most with 2-year yields rising to as much as 24bps to 4.53% before paring back some of the move to finish the day 17bps higher at 4.65%. 10-year yields made a new high, hitting 4.08% soon after the CPI but spent the rest of the session waning to up only 4bps to close at 3.94%, despite a weak 30-year auction in the afternoon. The sharp rally (yields falling by over 20bps across the curve) in U.K. gilts contributed to stabilising U.S treasuries. The Bank of England bought a record £4.68 billion of gilts in its emergency bond purchase programme which is set to end on Friday. Traders snapped up gilts on speculation that the Truss government will announce the reversal of some of the tax cuts in the mini-budget when the Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng returns from the IMF meeting in Washington.  Australia’s ASX200 (ASXSP200.1) may likely meet a similar fate to US equities and have a wild day of trade In Australia a similar situation is playing out with the futures market is now pricing in interest rates will peak at 3.9% next year.  We have seen the RBA express ‘peak hawkishness’, is behind it. But the market is still pricing in rate rises will continue, but at a steady pace. This means growth sectors remain pressured and value strengthens. Consider; amid the energy crisis, there are the most rising-free cash flows in energy markets, which offer value and support share price growth. This is worth perhaps reflecting on, especially given coal prices hit fresh highs and we are not at peak coal demand season (January) yet. As such energy prices seem supported higher. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIU2) China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hong Kong and mainland China equities retreated, Hang Seng Index down 1.9% and CSI300 lower by 0.8%. HSBC (00005:xhkg) outperformed and gained 0.7%. Country Garden Services (06098:xhkg), tumbling 14.1%, and Country Garden Holdings (02007:xhkg), falling 9.8% were the worst performers in the Hang Seng Index, as the China property space continued to sell off. Machinery stocks declined on weak excavator sales in China. Weaknesses in China Internet and EV stocks dragged the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH.I) down by 3.4%. On the other hand, local Hong Kong developers, Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016:xhkg), up 2.7%, New World Development (00017:xhkg), up 2.2%, and CK Asset Holdings (01113:xhkg), climbing 1.2% were among the best performers in the benchmark index, following news reports saying the Hong Kong Government is considering to relax the 15% extra stamp duty that non-resident buyers need to pay when buying a property in Hong Kong. In addition, Hong Kong is considering allowing 12 people instead of the currently 4 to gather in public. Macao casino stocks dropped from 1.9% to more than 7% on the dim prospect of relaxation on zero-Covid policy in mainland China. The head of China’s Epidemic Response and Disposal Leading Group, Liang Wannian, said on TV that China had no timeline for an exit from its Covid strategy. Sands China (01928:xhkg) was also troubled by a lawsuit in the U.S. in which the claimant is seeking more than USD7.5 billion in compensation. Healthcare stocks gained at the Hong Kong and mainland bourses. In the A-share market, computing, software, and digital currency concept stocks gained, following China’s central bank’s pledge to promote the development of the digital renminbi. Weak verbal intervention in the Japanese yen USDJPY traded to a fresh record high of 147.67 overnight, and stayed above the 147 handle despite a reversal in US dollar strength later in the session. Only some weak comments were noted from Japanese authorities, with FinMin Suzuki saying that FX volatility was discussed at the G20 meeting. There was also some speculation of more Japanese intervention after some sudden price movements in the Yen yesterday as USDJPY hit a high of 147.47 before knee-jerking lower to 146.52, albeit if it was intervention it wasn't successful with USDJPY back above 147.00. That is perhaps a reason why Japanese MoF official has stayed away from confirming or denying Thursday’s intervention. BOJ Governor Kuroda kept easing bias saying not appropriate to raise rates in Japan now, and with US yields still seeing some more room on the upside, there could be more room for yen weakness. Our technical analyst highlights that if USDJPY breaks 147.65 resistance, 149.34 level is not unlikely. Crude oil (CLX2 & LCOZ2) followed the USD price action While there were enough drivers for the oil prices overnight, price action in crude oil generally followed the USD trend which initially rose after the hot US CPI report cementing expectations for another 75bps rate hike at the November meeting and a small chance of a 100bps rate hike, but it fell later as risk sentiment revived. The IEA's monthly oil market report saw its Q4 demand view lowered by 300k BPD, while its 2023 demand outlook was cut by 470k BPD (both are still expected to show growth). But supply concerns also remained with the weekly US inventory reporting tight market in distillates following a decline of 4.9mln barrels in domestic supply. Crude stocks build was significantly above expectations (9.88mln vs an expected 1.75mln), while stocks at Cushing drew down by 309k; and gasoline posted a surprise build (2.023mln vs an expected -1.825mln). US-Saudi tensions also continue to slide downhill as the White House accused Saudi Arabia of coercing other OPEC+ members into agreeing to a huge output cut, and said it had asked the kingdom for a pause.   What to consider? Hot US CPI pushing Fed tightening expectations higher – can Fed members continue to out-hawk the markets? Core US inflation jumped to a 40-year high of 6.6% y/y in September, making more jumbo Fed rate increases inevitable. Headline CPI also came in higher than expectations, at 8.2% y/y with shelter, food and medical care contributing to the biggest gains. Fed funds rate expectations have pushed higher, with a full 75bps rate hike priced in for November with increasing expectations of a 75bps rate hike in December as well. March 2023 terminal rate expectation pushed higher by about 30bps to 4.94% now. This is above the 4.6% depicted by the Fed’s dot plot, and may leave little room for the Fed members to continue to out-hawk the markets. Fed speakers George, Cook and particularly Waller will be on the wires today. Reports of another potential UK fiscal U-turn There’s no ending the drama in the UK markets, with reports of another potential U-turn in the fiscal plans of Liz Truss government. Now, there are talks that the government is mulling hiking corporation tax despite initial plans to scrap the corporation tax hike and keep it unchanged. Such reports, along with the BOE’s increased bond-buying thus week, could help put a floor on UK assets next week as the central bank halts its bond purchases today. Still, the credibility of UK authorities remains in question, and that would mean it remains hard to include Gilts in asset allocation. Treasury Secretary Yellen warned about the risk of a loss of liquidity in the U.S. treasury market U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen voiced concerns about a potential breakdown in treasuries trading when answering questions yesterday and said that the Treasury is “worried about a loss of adequate liquidity in the market”. The concern about the potential risk of a sudden loss of liquidity or even a breakdown of trading in the U.S. treasury market has recently risen among some traders as the treasury market loses the largest buyer, the Fed in quantitative tightening. After rounds of QE and large fiscal deficits, the outstanding amount of treasuries has grown to USD23.7 trillion. The daily turnover in treasuries was USD627 billion a day in September.  The turmoil across the pond in the U.K. gilts markets has also added to the worries among traders and probably policy makers in the U.S. U.S. Bank earnings, potential CET1 capital shortfalls to watch Several leading U.S. banks, including JPMorganChase (JPM:xnys), Morgan Stanley (MS:xnys), Citigroup (C:xnys), Wells Fargo (WFC:xnys), US Bancorp (USB:xnys), PNC Financial (PNC:xnys), First Republic Bank (FRC:xnyc) are reporting on Friday. The market focus will be on JPMorganChase, Morgan Stanley, and Citigroup. The key things to watch for are these banks’ net interest margins and their updates on the quality of their loan books, as well as the impact of mark-to-market losses incurred to their available-for-sale investment portfolio, which are largely treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities, on their common equity tier-1 (CET1).  Some of the banks may be hit by falling bond prices and are facing CET1 capital shortfalls. Taiwan’s TSMC, South Korea’s SK Hynix, and Samsung Electronics secured U.S. approval for getting U.S. equipment for 1 year Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co said the company had secured a 1-year license from the U.S. government to continue to get U.S. chip-making equipment for its expansion in manufacturing capacity in China for the next 12 months.  Likewise, South Korean chip maker, SK Hynix said it had gotten a 1-year waiver from the U.S. government to import American equipment to its factories in China.  Reportedly, Samsung Electronics got a similar waiver.  On the other hand, China’s top semiconductor equipment maker Naura Technology was said to have told the company’s American engineers to stop working on research and development projects with immediate effect. The Chinese Communist Party convenes its 20th National Congress on Oct 16 General Secretary Xi Jinping will make a speech and presents the Work Report of the 19th Central Committee to the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) on Oct 16. From Oct 16 to 22, around 2,300 delegates from all over the country will elect 205 full members and 171 alternate members of the 20th Central Committee and select the members for the 20th Central Commission for Discipline Inspection. On Oct 22, the 20th National Congress will vote to approve the Work Report of the 19th Central Committee and approve an amendment to the charter of the CCP. The 20th National Congress ends on Oct 22 and the newly elected 20th Central Committee will hold its 1st plenary session on Oct 23 and decide on the most important 25-member Politburo and its 7-member Standing Committee, as well as members of the Central Military Commission and Central Secretariat.  Nomination of Premier and Vice-premiers of the State Council are matters to be decided not this time but later in the 2nd plenary session which may be held in February 2023 and that nomination will need to be approved by the National People’s Congress in March 2023. ECB QT likely to begin in Q2 2023, lower ECB terminal rate ECB discussed possible timeline for balance sheet reduction at Cyprus meeting earlier this month. Consensus appeared to emerge for quantitative tightening to start sometime in Q2 2023. Reports suggested that the ECB could already tweak its language on reinvestments at its October meeting and then could provide a detailed plan possibly in December but more likely in February. Meanwhile, Reuters reported that an ECB staff model puts the terminal rate in Europe at 2.25%, beneath the 3% that markets are currently pricing in; however, the response from ECB policymakers was mixed, with some fearing the model contains errors. China’s CPI is expected to rise to 2.9% in September China is releasing CPI and PPI data on Friday. The median forecast in the Bloomberg survey is expecting the CPI to rise to 2.9% Y/Y in September from 2.5% Y/Y in August.  The rise is likely attributed to higher food prices, including pork prices during the month.  PPI is expected to fall to 1.0% Y/Y in September from 2.3% in August, helped by a high base last year.  China’s export growth is expected to decelerate in September The median forecast in Bloomberg’s survey of economists calls for a sharp deceleration of China’s export growth in USD terms to +4.0% Y/Y in September from +7.1% in August, citing tightened pandemic control measures and a high base of last year. China’s LNG imports are set to decline this winter Bloomberg analysts estimate that China’s LNG import in November and December will be 12.7 million metric tons, a decline of 17% from last year, citing Chinese LNG users canceling LNG import terminal access slots. Singapore avoids a technical recession, MAS re-centres currency band Solid Q3 GDP growth of 4.4% y/y in Singapore according to advance estimates, crushing estimates as construction and services industries outperformed. This reaffirmed that Singapore not only avoided a technical recession, but is on a solid recovery track after the pandemic restrictions were removed. Q/Q growth turned positive to come in strongly at 1.5% from -0.2% previously. This has given further room to the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to tighten the policy, and it announced re-centring of its currency policy band to the prevailing level. No changes to the width or slope of the band were announced, meaning the boost to the SGD could remain temporary as potentially more USD gains remain likely for now. What is the thinking about what will happen to interest rates in Australia? In Australia the futures market are now pricing in interest rates will peak at 3.9% next year. We have seen the RBA express ‘peak hawkishness’, is behind it. But the market is still pricing in rate rises will continue, but at a steady pace. This means growth sectors remain pressured and value strengthens. Consider; amid the energy crisis, there are the most rising-free cash flows in energy markets, which offer value and support share price growth. This is worth perhaps reflecting on, especially given coal prices hit fresh highs and we are not at peak coal demand season (December-January) yet. Also consider oil prices have moved off their lows. As such energy prices look supported higher for longer despite A. Most traded instruments at Saxo Australia this week The most traded stocks this week at Saxo in Australia are Tesla, Apple, Whitehaven Coal (hit new high), Coles, and Bank of Queensland results. What’s the takeaway here? We need to reflect on the trends. Trends are your friends when it comes to making profits in markets. In the banking sector; we heard from Bank of Queensland who is forecasting house prices to drop and loan growth to slow. Coal prices are moving up and continues to be supported. And in when it comes to the most transacted upon futures, in commodities; we've seen a pick-up in buying of Crude oil Futures; with the OPEC and EIA still predicting demand will outpace supply in 2023, meaning we could expect higher oil prices into next year.   For a week-ahead look at markets – tune into our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.     Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/market-insights-today-14-oct-v2-14102022
The UK Economy Looks Worse Than The Rest Of The G7 Countries

The Credibility Of The British Authorities Remains In Question | The Bloomberg Metals Index Trades Up

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 14.10.2022 11:13
Summary:  A remarkable bear market turnaround in equities yesterday, as higher than expected US core inflation data aggravated the recent sell-off and sent sentiment plunging, only to quickly find a low and launch a nearly vertical comeback. A fresh rise in treasury yields in reaction to the inflation data only stuck at the short end of the yield curve as the market was forced to nudge Fed rate hike expectations for early next year to new highs for the cycle, while longer yields retreated sharply after briefly posting new cycle highs.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) Yesterday’s US equity session will go down in history as one of the weirdest trading sessions. The US September CPI figure showed a negative surprise to inflation with the 6-month average core CPI hitting the highest level for the cycle at around 0.6% m/m (7.4% annualised) initially setting off a steep slide in US equities with S&P 500 futures hitting levels as low as the 3,502 level. However, in the subsequent part of the session US equities rallied hard with S&P 500 futures closing at the 3,681 level up 2.6% and the index futures are continuing higher this morning trading around the 3,703 level. It seems that the session was driven by technical factors and potentially realignment of inventories by market markets and trading firms, so we think investors should not put too much weight on the recent price action. By next week, we will know how long-term institutional investors are judging the inflation print. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIU2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Stocks in Hong Kong and mainland China rallied strongly, Hang Seng Index surging 3.4%, and CSI300 climbing 2%. The dramatic turnaround in the U.S. equity overnight helped set a more optimistic tone at the open. To add to the positive sentiment was the softer-than-expected Chinese CPI and PPI data released this morning showing inflation grew at a benign 0.6% y/y in September once the volatile food and energy prices were excluded. It fuels the anticipation of more room for the Chinese authorities to roll out stimulus measures. HSBC (00005:xhkg), which was also boosted by the strong rally in the pound sterling in anticipation of the U.K. Truss government changing course in some of the planned tax cuts, jumped 6.5%. Leading the Hong Kong benchmark were also pharmaceuticals, China property, China consumption, and China Internet names. In China A shares, healthcare, medical equipment, food and beverage, Chinese liquor and cloud computing were among the top performers. USD climax reversal? Lacking confirmation... The US dollar blasted higher on the hotter-than-expected core CPI data, which took the currency to new highs versus many of the less liquid currencies, only to see the action reversing sharply on the day as risk sentiment rallied and the move higher at the longer end of the US yield curve reversed. This created a bullish “hammer” reversal on many USD charts, like AUDUSD and inversely in USDCAD, but we will need for sentiment to launch a sustained recovery and for US yields to retreat further if we are to see a more significant consolidation in the dollar rally. After all, the move higher in Fed rate tightening expectations held up fairly well as the market now sees the Fed peaking at a policy rate of 4.75-5.00% and odds of a 100 basis point move in November have crept higher, though still very low. For EURUSD, the focus will be on the 0.9800-50 zone as the resistance barring the path to parity, while a close back below 0.9700 suggests the risk of further downside in the near term remains. Elsewhere, the USDJPY never really blinked despite all the volatility elsewhere, holding just below the highest levels since 1998 (more below). Gold (XAUUSD) Gold tumbled following the US CPI print but later recovered to settle back into the $1660 to $1680 range that has seen most of the action this week. While the 8.2% YoY inflation print for September raised expectations for more aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, the sentiment improved as the dollar reversed lower (see above) while the S&P 500 saw its 5th-largest intraday reversal from a low in the history of the index. Another rise in bond yields capped the upside to gold with the yield on two-year Notes hitting a fresh 15-year high above 4.5%. In our latest gold update we highlight the reasons behind our medium-term bullish outlook but also why the ducks are not yet lined up properly for the recovery to begin. Resistance at $1687 and $1695. Crude oil (CLX2 & LCOZ2) Crude oil is heading for a weekly loss made smaller by a surprise dollar weakness following yesterday's higher than expected US CPI print. The overall weakness seen this week being in response to a continued subdued demand outlook globally, especially in China as the government continues to support its growth reducing Covid-zero policy. The week also delivered global demand downgrades from the OPEC, EIA and yesterday the IEA, with the latter warning last week’s OPEC+ production cut was not justified by fundamentals leaving the price at risk of spiking thereby potentially tipping the global economy into a recession. Focus on US distillate stocks (diesel and heating oil) at a seasonal three-decade low driving refinery margins to a record high in New York. US treasuries (TLT, IEF) The strong core US CPI data yesterday lifted the entire US yield curve, but while the move higher in short yields largely stuck, the long end pushed back lower to close the day largely unchanged. In the case of the 10-year yield, that meant back below 4.00% after posting new cycle highs above 4.05% intraday. This inverted the yield curve back toward the cycle extreme negative 50 basis points. A 30-year T-bond auction a couple of hours after the data release yesterday generated few headlines and no notable market reaction. What is going on? U.S. September CPI remains uncomfortably high U.S. CPI was up 8.2 % year-over-year last month versus expected 8.1 % year-over-year. This is a worrying signal which confirms that financial conditions are not tight enough to significantly lower inflationary pressures. Into details, the main drivers behind the increase in inflation are energy with a jump of 19.8 % year-over-year (gasoline fell in recent months but natural gas and electricity increased more), food with an increase of 11.2 % (food at home +13 %) and finally vehicles, transportation, medical and shelter with a price jump of 6.6 %. The latest inflation figures for September (both the headline CPI and the PPI) open the door to a 75-basis point interest hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve at the November meeting. US earnings recap: Walgreens, Delta Air Lines, and BlackRock Investors were relieved to read Walgreens’ EPS outlook for its next fiscal year with EPS at $4.45-4.65 vs est. $4.51, but we would argue there is a downside risk to this target as revenue growth is negative and wage pressures are building in the US labour market. Delta Air Lines surprised the market with an upbeat EPS outlook for Q4 with EPS at $1-1.25 vs est. $0.80 as pent-up demand remains strong and management said as well that the strong USD is not impacting its international business. BlackRock surprised on Q3 earnings against estimates, but AUM missed and the initial reaction from investors was negative. Reports of another potential UK fiscal U-turn There’s no ending to the drama in the UK markets, with reports of another potential U-turn in the fiscal plans of Liz Truss government. Now, there are talks that the government is mulling hiking corporate taxes despite initial plans to scrap the previously planned tax hike and keep it unchanged. Such reports, along with the BOE’s increased bond-buying this week, could help put a floor on UK assets next week as the central bank halts its bond purchases today. Still, the credibility of UK authorities remains in question, and that would mean it remains hard to include Gilts in asset allocation. Sterling is also all over the map – leaning to the strong side on hopes that the market has disciplined the Truss government from undermining the long term stability of UK government finances. The rises in China’s CPI and PPI were slower than expected China’s CPI came in at +2.8% Y/Y (vs consensus +2.9%; August +2.5%) and the core CPI (excluding food and energy) growth slowed to +0.6% Y/Y from +0.8% in August. The rise in the headline CPI was driven by a 36% Y/Y increase in pork prices and increases in most other food prices as well in September. The deceleration in the PPI to +0.9% Y/Y (vs consensus +1.0%) from +2.3% in August was driven by weaknesses in energy, mining, and raw materials as well as declines in prices in the oil and gas process, ferrous metal processing, and non-ferrous metal processing industries. The CPI and PPI overall point to sluggish demand in China. Weak verbal intervention in the Japanese yen USDJPY traded to a fresh record high of 147.67 overnight, and stayed above the 147 handle despite a reversal in US dollar strength later in the session. Only some weak comments were noted from Japanese authorities, with FinMin Suzuki saying that FX volatility was discussed at the G20 meeting. BOJ Governor Kuroda kept the easing bias, saying that it is not appropriate to raise rates in Japan now, and with US yields still seeing some more room on the upside, there could be more room for yen weakness. Our technical analyst highlights that if USDJPY breaks 147.65 resistance, 149.34 level is not unlikely. Industrial metals trade higher for a third week The Bloomberg Metals index trades up 4.4% this month supported by stretched supplies of copper in China and renewed fears over the flow of metals from Russia, especially aluminum currently up 10% this month, as the White House may sanction Russian aluminum producers. The sector saw a very challenging third quarter with multiple risks to demand, from the global threat of recessions to Europe’s energy crisis and China’s chronic property slump. However, low global stockpiles especially in China, where spending on metal intensive renewable energy projects is rising and the government tries to accelerate infrastructure spending. What are we watching next? ECB QT is likely to begin in Q2 2023, lower ECB terminal rate ECB discussed possible timeline for balance sheet reduction at Cyprus meeting earlier this month. Consensus appeared to emerge for quantitative tightening to start sometime in Q2 2023. Reports suggested that the ECB could already tweak its language on reinvestments at its October meeting and then could provide a detailed plan possibly in December but more likely in February. Meanwhile, Reuters reported that an ECB staff model puts the terminal rate in Europe at 2.25%, beneath the 3% that markets are currently pricing in; however, the response from ECB policymakers was mixed, with some fearing the model contains errors. The Chinese Communist Party convenes its 20th National Congress on Oct 16   General Secretary Xi Jinping will make a speech and presents the Work Report of the 19th Central Committee to the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) on Oct 16. From Oct 16 to 22, around 2,300 delegates from all over the country will elect 205 full members and 171 alternate members of the 20th Central Committee and select the members for the 20th Central Commission for Discipline Inspection. On Oct 22, the 20th National Congress will vote to approve the Work Report of the 19th Central Committee and approve an amendment to the charter of the CCP. The 20th National Congress ends on Oct 22 and the newly elected 20th Central Committee will hold its 1st plenary session on Oct 23 and decide on the most important 25-member Politburo and its 7-member Standing Committee, as well as members of the Central Military Commission and Central Secretariat.  Nomination of Premier and Vice-premiers of the State Council are matters to be decided not this time but later in the 2nd plenary session which may be held in February 2023 and that nomination will need to be approved by the National People’s Congress in March 2023. Earnings to watch Today’s earnings focus is on US banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo. Expectations are low for these US bank earnings with analysts expecting JPMorgan Chase EPS down 24% y/y and the focus is on net interest margin and credit provisions. Today: Shanghai Putailai New Energy, YTO Express Group, PNC Financial Services, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, UnitedHealth Group, Wells Fargo, US Bancorp, First Republic Bank Next week’s earnings releases: Monday: Bank of America, Sandvik Tuesday: Charles Schwab, Johnson & Johnson, Goldman Sachs, Intuitive Surgical, Lockheed Martin, Truist Financial Wednesday: ASML, Elevance Health, Tesla, IBM, Lam Research, P&G, Abbott Laboratories, Atlas Copco Thursday: China Mobile, China Telecom, ABB, Danaher, Investor, Philip Morris, Union Pacific, CSX, AT&T, Blackstone, Marsh & McLennan, Yara International, Nordea, Volvo, Ericsson, Freeport-McMoRan, Dow Friday: CATL, American Express, Schlumberger, Verizon Communications, HCA Healthcare, Sika Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0900 – Eurozone Aug. Trade Balance 1230 – US Sep. Retail Sales 1230 – Canada Aug. Manufacturing Sales 1400 – US Fed’s George (Voter 2022) to speak 1400 – US preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment 1430 – US Fed’s Cook (Voter) to speak on the economic outlook 1615 – US Fed’s Waller (Voter) to speak on central bank digital currency  Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher     Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-oct-14-2022-14102022
US Nonfarm Payrolls Disappoint: Impact on Dollar and EUR/USD Analysis

Podcast: Moods In The Stock Markets- The Support Levels Of The Nasdaq 100 And S&P 500 And More

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 14.10.2022 11:26
Summary:  Today we discuss the remarkable turnaround in equities yesterday after a hotter than expected core US CPI print for September pumped Fed rate expectations higher and triggered a sharp new slide in the market. The rally came after both the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 tested important support levels. As the headline suggests, we're far from sure that the market comeback offers much information value despite its impressive scale. Elsewhere, we look at the mixed status of USD pairs after yesterday's action, look at natural gas and copper, preview the day and week ahead on the earnings calendar and upcoming macro data points and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX. Listen to today’s podcast- slides are found via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/podcast/podcast-oct-14-2022-14102022
Asia Morning Bites: Focus on Regional PMI Figures, China's Caixin Manufacturing Report, and Upcoming FOMC Minutes and US Non-Farm Payrolls"

The New York Stock Exchange: JPMorgan Chase & Co Was A Leader Among The Dow Jones Index Components

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 17.10.2022 08:19
At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 1.34%, the S&P 500 index fell 2.37%, and the NASDAQ Composite index fell 3.08%. The leading performer among the Dow Jones index components today was JPMorgan Chase & Co, which gained 1.82 points or 1.66% to close at 111.19. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated rose 3.22 points or 0.63% to close at 513.13. Boeing Co rose 0.75 points or 0.57% to close at 133.15. The losers were shares of American Express Company, which lost 4.74 points or 3.35% to end the session at 136.81. Apple Inc was up 3.21% or 4.59 points to close at 138.40, while Chevron Corp was down 3.11% or 5.14 points to close at 160.14. . The leaders of growth among the components of the S&P 500 index following the results of today's trading were shares of U.S. Bancorp, which rose 3.36% to 42.76, Delta Air Lines Inc, which gained 2.30% to close at 31.08, and Wells Fargo & Company, which rose 1.86%, ending the session at 43.17. The losers were First Republic Bank, which shed 16.45% to close at 112.57. Shares of The Mosaic Company shed 9.88% to end the session at 46.86. Quotes of CF Industries Holdings Inc decreased in price by 8.40% to 98.04. Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Agrify Corp, which rose 53.75% to hit 1.45, Fednat Holding Co, which gained 48.02% to close at 0.52, and shares of Imara Inc, which rose 46.90% to end the session at 3.79. The drop leaders were shares of TOP Financial Group Ltd, which fell in price by 73.47%, closing at 5.49. Shares of Alfi Inc lost 69.90% and ended the session at 0.25. Quotes of Novo Integrated Sciences Inc decreased in price by 61.94% to 0.29. On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of depreciated securities (2506) exceeded the number of closed in positive territory (579), and quotes of 85 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,720 stocks fell, 1,005 rose, and 229 remained at the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 0.25% to 32.02. Gold futures for December delivery shed 1.67%, or 28.05, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for November delivery fell 3.75%, or 3.34, to $85.77 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for December delivery fell 2.93%, or 2.77, to $91.80 a barrel. Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD was down 0.51% to hit 0.97, while USD/JPY was up 1.00% to hit 148.68. Futures on the USD index rose 0.82% to 113.18.     Relevance up to 05:00 2022-10-18 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/296988
Hungary's Budget Deficit Grows, Raising Concerns Over Fiscal Targets

Apple Has Completed Deliveries From A Chinese Company YMTC | Flood In Australia And Its Consequences

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 17.10.2022 12:09
Summary:  Equity markets fell sharply on Friday, erasing the steep rally of the prior session, as US treasury yields rose and the US dollar closed the week on a strong note. After a retreat on Friday, the pound sterling is attempting a comeback on hopes that the new Chancellor will reverse more of the struggling new government’s original tax cut plans. The focus for the week ahead will likely be on corporate earnings, with Tesla, the world’s most heavily traded stock, set to report Wednesday.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) A steep drop in equities Friday erased the odd-ball rally of the prior session as the US equity market heads into Q3 earnings season on its back foot, trading heavily near the cycle lows. The next focus lower could be on the major high posted pre-pandemic in the S&P 500 near 3,400. For the Nasdaq 100, the equivalent level would be near 9,750, some 1,000 points lower from the current level. The earnings season kicks into gear this week with especially Wednesday being important for sentiment in equities as Tesla and ASML reports earnings. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIV2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Stocks in Hong Kong and mainland China retreated after the selloff in the US markets last Friday.  In addition, General Secretary Xi’s speech yesterday hailed China’s “Dynamic Zero-Covid” strategy and gave no hint of shifting policy priorities toward economic growth as some investors had hoped for. Hang Seng Index lost 1.1% and CSI300 slid 0.4%. China Internet stocks traded in Hong Kong declined from 2% to 8%. CNOOC (00883:xhkg) climbed 0.7% after preannouncing strong net income, benefiting from higher energy prices. USD comes storming back, sterling tries to stabilize... The US dollar quickly recovered lost ground on Friday after the big correction Thursday, in correlation with the return of weak risk sentiment and a fresh rise in US treasury yields back toward the cycle highs. After Chinese leader Xi Jinping's speech at the party congress this weekend, the USDCNH exchange rate remains pinned near the 7.20 area that was the previous high from 2019 and 2020, USDJPY continues to run higher amidst broad JPY weakness (EURJPY is nearing a multi-year high above 145.00). Elsewhere, EURUSD seems reluctant to make a statement with 0.9800 and 0.9536 the two levels of note there, and GBPUSD has pushed higher on hopes that the recent volatility in UK gilts and sterling will see the government retract its budget-busting policy moves, with likely further political turmoil ahead as Prime Minister Truss fights to stay in office. Crude oil (CLX2 & LCOZ2) Crude oil dropped sharply on Friday after a strong comeback for the US dollar and with little to help sentiment as the week gets under way after Chinese leader Xi doubled down once again on his commitment to Zero Covid policy. The bigger focus in energy markets is on the weak supply situation in diesel amidst concerns of shortages in both Europe and the US. In Europe, strikes at French refineries are aggravating the supply situation, while US storage levels are at their lowest for this time of year ever. US treasuries (TLT, IEF) US treasury yields pulled back higher on Friday to close the week near the highs for the cycle, with the 10-year Treasury yield benchmark near 4.00% once again and a very light US data calendar for the week ahead, although important housing data like the October NAHB Survey is up tomorrow and September Housing Starts/Building Permits data follows on Wednesday. The most interesting auctions this week are a 20-year US Treasury auction on Wednesday and a 5 year TIPS auction on Thursday. What is going on? Xi’s speech at the Chinese Communist Party’s 20th National Congress adhered to current policy priorities General Secretary Xi Jinping made a speech to present the Work Report of the 19th Central Committee to the 20th National Congress.  In the speech, he reiterated the current policies of the new development paradigm, common prosperity, dual circulation, and dynamic zero-Covid, as well as strong language on Taiwan. As we remarked in a recent note, General Secretary Xi is set to continue the key policy priorities that he launched over the past 10 years into the five years ahead. Investors hoping for major shifts in economic policies in China or the Chinese authorities ditching the dynamic Covid-zero strategy after the 20th National Congress will most likely be disappointed. Apple to stop using Chinese memory chips Due to US export restrictions Apple has decided to halt the usage of memory chips from the Chinese company YMTC. The chips are cheaper than other manufacturers of memory chips but were only supposed to have been used for the Chinese market, so the immediate impact on iPhone pricing is low. However, it underscores the long-term risks to inflation from the ongoing reshoring of the global supply chain. Mixed US economic data on Friday On a positive note, the US preliminary October University of Michigan sentiment indicator rose slightly, with the headline at 59.8, up from 58.6 in September. This is the highest print since April 2022. This is partially explained by an easing of supply constraints. But concerns over inflation and the ongoing economic slowdown remain. On a negative note, U.S consumer spending was flat last month. Retail and food services sales were little changed after an increase of 0.4 % in August. This is actually much worse than it looks like. Retail sales numbers are not adjusted for inflation which means that real spending actually retreated for the month. However, it is unlikely to prevent the U.S. Federal Reserve from raising the Fed funds rate by at least 75 basis points at the November FOMC meeting (current market pricing is +78 basis points). La Nina is underway in Australia; floods decimate some wheat crops In the Australian state of Victoria at the weekend floods decimated some wheat crops, which has resulted in the price of Wheat futures contracts for March and May 2023 lifting in anticipation that supply issues will worsen. The Australian Federal Emergency Management Minister said parts of Australia face ‘some serious flooding’ with more rain forecast later this week, with 34,000 homes in Victoria potentially expected to be inundated or isolated. The Bureau of Meteorology forecasts the La Lina event to peak in spring that’s underway in the Southern Hemisphere, before turning to neural conditions early next year. What are we watching next? UK Prime Minister Truss in fight for political life this week … as rumors swirl of a rebellion in the Tory ranks. New Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is scheduled to speak today and may announce further reversals of the budget-busting adjustments to tax policy that got the fledgling government into trouble so quickly and helped trigger the recent turmoil in sterling and the UK gilt market. Sterling has started the week on a hopeful note as we also wait and see how well the gilt market functions after the Bank of England wound down its emergency QE programme last week. The UK CPI data on Wednesday is the data highlight of the week for the UK, with headline CPI expected at 10.0% YoY and core at +6.4%. Earnings to watch This is the first full week for the quarterly earnings cycle, with intense focus on Tesla’s earnings report up on Wednesday as the stock closed a new low for the year on Friday as concerns rise of cracks in the company’s growth story. Given the pressure on the semiconductor industry from US export restrictions earnings from ASML and Lam Research are also our focus on Wednesday. Today: Bank of America, Sandvik Tuesday: Charles Schwab, Johnson & Johnson, Goldman Sachs, Intuitive Surgical, Lockheed Martin, Truist Financial Wednesday: ASML, Elevance Health, Tesla, IBM, Lam Research, P&G, Abbott Laboratories, Atlas Copco Thursday: China Mobile, China Telecom, ABB, Danaher, Investor, Philip Morris, Union Pacific, CSX, AT&T, Blackstone, Marsh & McLennan, Yara International, Nordea, Volvo, Ericsson, Freeport-McMoRan, Dow Friday: CATL, American Express, Schlumberger, Verizon Communications, HCA Healthcare, Sika Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 1200 – Poland Sep. Core CPI 1230 – US Oct. Empire Manufacturing 1430 – UK Chancellor Hunt to speak 1500 – ECB’s Lane to speak 2145 – New Zealand Q3 CPI 0030 – Australia RBA Minutes 0200 – China Sep. Industrial Production 0200 – China Sep. Retail Sales 0200 – China Q3 GDP Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-oct-17-2022-17102022
China's Position On The Russo-Ukrainian War Confirmed At The G20 Meeting

The Japanese Yen (JPY) Is The Only G20 Currency Which Have Been Weaken | China Delays Publication Of GDP Report

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 18.10.2022 10:40
Summary:  Risk sentiment was supported by more U-turns in UK fiscal policy and strong earnings from Bank of America supporting the US banks. Equities rallied and the USD declined, but the Japanese yen failed to ride on the weaker USD and continued to test the authorities’ patience on intervention. Higher NZ CPI boosted bets for RBNZ rate hikes, and the less hawkish RBA meeting minutes brought AUDNZD to fresh lows. EU meetings remain key ahead as the bloc attempts to finalize Russian price caps. What’s happening in markets?   The Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) rally after UK-policy U-turn. So far this reporting season earnings are declining The mood was risk-on amid Monday’s rally; with the major indices charging higher with the S&P500 up 2.7%. The breadth of the rally was so strong that at one point over 99% of the companies in the S&P500 were rising, which pushed the index up away from its 200-week moving average (which it fell below last week). Meanwhile the Nasdaq 100 gained 3.5%. The rally came after the UK made $30 billion pounds worth of savings after scrapping tax cuts (see below for more). It was received well by markets and investors looking for short term relief. Bond yields fell, equities rallied and after the GBP lifted 1.6% the US dollar lost strength. But the UK is not out of the lurch with power outages likely later this year. Plus also consider, so far this US earnings season, only 38 of the S&P500 companies have reported results and earnings growth has so far declined on average by 3%. So it’s too soon to gauge if markets can sustain this rally, particularly with the Fed likely to hike rates by 75 bps later this month and next. Strong earnings from bank boosted market sentiment. Bank of America (BAC:xnys), reporting solid Q3 results with net interest income beat and a 50bp sequential improvement on CET1 capital adequacy ratio, surged 6% and was one of the most actively traded stock on the day. U.S. treasury curve (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) steepened Initially US treasuries traded firmer with yields declining, after taking clues from the nearly 40bps drop in long-dated U.K. gilts following the new U.K. Chancellor Hunt scrapping much of the "mini budget" tax cuts and the support for household energy bills. Some block selling in the long-end treasury curve however took 30-year yields closing 3bps cheaper and 10-year yields little changed at 4.01%. The 2-year to 5-year space finished the session richer, with yields falling around 5bps and 2-year closed at 4.44%. The market has now priced in a 5% terminal Fed fund rate in 2023 and a 100% probability for a 75bps hike in November and over 60% chance for another 75bps hike in December. Australia’s ASX200 (ASXSP200.1) lifts 1.4%; with a focus on Uranium, stocks exposed to the UK and lithium Firstly Lithium stocks are in the spotlight after Pilbara Minerals (PLS) accepted a new sales contract to ship spodumene concentrate for lithium batteries from Mid-may, at $7,100 dmt. PLS shares are up 3.1% with other lithium stocks rising including Core Lithium (CXO) up 3.7% and Sayona Mining (SYA) up 4.7%. Secondly, shares in Uranium are focus today after Germany plans to extend the life of the countries three nuclear power plants till April, as it contends with the energy crisis. The Global Uranium ETF (URA) rose 5.9% on Monday and ASX uranium stocks are following suit like Paladin (PDN) up 2%. For a deep look at the uranium/nuclear sector, covering the stocks to perhaps watch and why read our Quarterly Outlook on the Nuclear sector here. Thirdly, amid the risk-on short term relief in markets from the UK, companies with UK exposure are rallying amid the short-term sentiment shift , including the UK’s 5th biggest bank, Virgin Money (VUK) which is listed on the ASX and trades up 5.3%. Ramsay Health Care (RHC), which is a private hospital/ health care business with presence in the UK trades up almost 2% today. Ramsay's recent full-year showed UK revenue doubled to $1.2 billion. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIV2) China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Stocks in Hong Kong and mainland China traded lower initially and spent the rest of the day climbing to recover all the losses, with Hang Seng Index and CSI300 finishing marginally higher. General Secretary Xi’s speech last Sunday hailed China’s “Dynamic Zero-Covid” strategy and gave no hint of shifting policy priorities toward economic growth as some investors had hoped for. Among the leading Hang Seng constituent stocks, HSBC (00005:xhkg) gained 1.5% and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (00388:xhkg), which is reporting Q3 results on Wednesday, climbed 2.3%. Chinese banks gained, with China Merchant Bank rising 2.3% and ICBC (01389) up 1.7%.  Healthcare names gained, Hansoh Pharmaceutical (03692:xhkg) surged 13.2% and Sino Biopharm (01177:xhkg) rose 3.6%. EV stocks were among the laggards, dropping from 1% to 5%. Li Ning (02331:xhkg) tumbled over 13% at one point and finished the trading day 4.3% lower following accusations on mainland social media about the sportswear company’s latest designs resembling WWII Japanese army uniforms.  Japanese yen paying no heed to jawboning efforts The US dollar moved lower on Monday, but that was no respite for the Japanese yen. All other G10 currencies got a boost, with sterling leading the bounce against the USD with the help of dismantling of the fiscal measures by the newest Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt and the slide in UK yields. The only G10 currency that weakened further on Monday was the JPY, which continued to test the intervention limits of the authorities. USDJPY rose to 149.08, printing fresh 42-year highs. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda will be appearing before the Japanese parliament from 9.50am Tokyo time, after some stern remarks in the morning saying that they “cannot tolerate excessive FX move driven by speculators”. While intervention expectations rose, the yen still did not budge until last check. NZD rose on higher New Zealand CPI boosting RBNZ tightening bets Another surprisingly strong inflation print from New Zealand, with Q3 CPI easing only a notch to 7.2% y/y from 7.3% y/y against consensus expectations of 6.5% y/y and an estimate of 6.4% from the RBNZ at the August meeting. The q/q rate rose to 2.2% from 1.7% in Q2 and way above expectations of 1.5%. This has prompted expectations of more aggressive tightening from the RBNZ with a close to 75bps hike priced in for the Nov 23 meeting vs. ~60bps earlier, and the peak in overnight cash rate at over 5.3% from ~5% previously. NZDUSD rose to 0.5660 with the AUDNZD down to over 1-month lows of 1.1120 with RBA minutes due today as well for the October meeting when the central bank announced a smaller than expected rate hike of 25bps. Crude oil (CLX2 & LCOZ2) Crude oil prices stabilized in early Asian hours on Tuesday after a slight decline yesterday, despite a weaker dollar and an upbeat risk sentiment. WTI futures rose towards $86/barrel while Brent was above $91. Chinese demand concerns however weighed on the commodities complex coming out of the weekend CCP announcements. On the OPEC front, Algeria's Energy Minister echoed familiar rhetoric from the group that the decision to reduce output is a purely technical response to the world economic circumstances.   What to consider? UK need to know: Policy U-Turn provides shorter term risk-on rally, but long-term headwinds remain, UK holds talks to avoid power shutdowns New British chancellor Jeremy Hunt reversed almost all of PM Liz Truss’ mini-budget. Initially Truss’ plans sent markets into a tailspin - whereby the pound hit record lows and the Bank of England was forced to intervene. However, after Hunt virtually scrapped all of the announced tax cuts, and cut back support for household energy bills, saving $32 billion pounds, then risk sentiment improved and the pound gained strength. But, the issue is, firstly; there are still almost $40 billion pounds worth of savings to be made to close the fiscal gap; meaning more government spending cuts will come and possibly tax hikes. This is probably why new UK finance chief, Hunt, declined to rule out a windfall profit tax. Nevertheless, the U-turn was received well by markets for the short term, bond yields fell, equities rallies and the pound sterling (GPBUSD) rose 1.6% against the USD with the US dollar losing strength. And the second reason the UK is not out of the lurch is that the fundamentals haven’t changed; the UK energy crisis is not resolved – yesterday in the UK government officials met major data centers discussing the need to use diesel as backup if the power grid goes down in the coming months. Amazon.com and Microsoft run data centers in the UK. Earlier this month, National Grid also warned some UK customers they could face 3-hour power cuts on cold days. The Bank of England is expected to downgrade its rate hike expectations.    NY Fed manufacturing headline lower on mixed components The NY Fed manufacturing survey for October fell to -9.1, contracting for a third consecutive month and coming in below the expected -4.0 and the prior -1.5. While survey data remains hard to trust to decipher economic trends, given a small sample size and questioning techniques impacting results, it is worth noting that more factories are turning downbeat about future business conditions which fell 10 points to -1.8 and was the second weakest since 2009. Also, the prices paid measure rose for the first time since June, echoing similar results as seen from the University of Michigan survey. Fed speakers ahead today include Bostic and Kashkari and terminal rate expectations remain on watch after they are touching close to 5%. La Nina is underway in Australia; floods decimate some wheat crops In the Australian state of Victoria at the weekend, floods decimated some wheat crops, which has resulted in the price of Wheat futures contracts for March and May 2023 lifting in anticipation that supply issues will worsen. The Australian Federal Emergency Management Minister said parts of Australia face ‘some serious flooding’ with more rain forecast later this week, with 34,000 homes in Victoria potentially expected to be inundated or isolated. The Bureau of Meteorology forecasts the La Lina event to peak in spring that’s underway in the Southern Hemisphere, before turning to neural conditions early next year. La Nina is not only disastrous to lives, homes and businesses, but the extra rainfall usually brings about lot of regrowth when rain eases. The risk is, if El Nino hits Australia in 2023 for instance, bringing diminished rainfall and dryness, then there is a greater risk of grassfires and bushfires. Investors will be watching insurance companies like Insurance Australia Group, QBE. As well as companies that produce wheat, including GrainCorp and Elders on the ASX and General Mills in the US. RBA Meeting Minutes out – AUDUSD climbs of lows, up 1.7% The Aussie dollar rose 1.7% off its low after the USD lost strength when the UK re winded some tax cuts. The AUDUSD will be in focus with the RBA Meeting Minutes released, highlighted why the RBA rose interest rates by just 0.25% this month, moving from a hawkish to dovish stance. The RBA previously highlighted it sees unemployment rising next year, and sees inflation beginning to normalize next year, which in our view, implies the RBA will likely pause with rate hikes after December, after progressively making hikes of 25bps (0.25%). Still the Australian dollar against the US (AUDUSD) remains pressured over the medium term, given the Fed’s expected heavy-pace of hikes, while China’s commodity buying-power is restricted with President Xi maintaining a covid zero policy. As such, the AUD's rally might be questioned unless something fundamentally changes. China delays the release of Q3 GDP and September activity data Chin’s National Bureau of Statistics delays the release of Q3 GDP, September industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment data that were scheduled to come on Tuesday without providing a reason or a new schedule.   For our look ahead at markets this week - Listen/watch our Saxo Spotlight.   For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast. Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/market-insights-today-18-oct-18102022
Belgian housing market to see weaker demand and price correction

The US Housing Market Is Experiencing Severe Price Drops | The Market Is Now Leaning Towards A RBNZ Rate Hike By 75 bp

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 18.10.2022 11:38
Summary:  A huge squeeze across equity markets developed yesterday on no readily identifiable catalyst, with yields easing a bit lower and the US dollar dropped falling sharply, as most markets posted a sudden reversal of the Friday melt-down in sentiment. One possible driver for the fresh thaw in sentiment was a report that the Bank of England may delay its quantitative tightening programme, perhaps raising hopes that other central banks will eventually do the same.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) Strong equity session yesterday with S&P 500 futures closing at their highest level since 7 October as the index futures rebounded 2.6%. The momentum is continuing this morning with S&P 500 futures trading around the 3,742 level with the 3,800 as the next major resistance level on the upside. Nasdaq 100 futures are trading around the 11,295 level this morning with 11,494 as the next upside level to watch. The US 10-year yield is still hovering around the 4% level and US financial conditions remain around their average historical level. As we scan across different markets there are no obvious reasons for the major rebound so our best guess is short coverings and technical flows. Our medium-term outlook is still negative on equities. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIV2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Stocks traded in Hong Kong bounced the second day in a row with the benchmark Hang Sang Index rising nearly 1.5%. Heavy weight HSBC (00005:xhkg) gained 2.6% and China Internet names surged from 3% to 7%. BYD (01211:xhkg) surged 6.4% after the leading EV maker said its Q3 profit may soar up to 365%. CSI300 was bouncing around small gains and losses. China’s National Development and Reform Commission said China’s economic growth “rebounded significantly” in Q3 while the National Bureau of Statistics delayed the release of Q3 GDP, September industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment data that were scheduled to come today without providing a reason or a new schedule. A document from the European Action Service advises EU’s finance ministers that EU must take a tougher line in its dealing with China and see the latter as an all-out competitor. USD drops as risk sentiment jolts back higher...BoE to drop QT for now? Yesterday was the third consecutive session in which risk sentiment posted a sharp U-turn, as equities rallied sharply and the US dollar sold off steeply, led initially by a drop versus a hard rallying sterling yesterday on hopes that newly minted Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s elimination of most of PM Liz Truss’ initiatives will stabilize the currency and the country’s bond market. An additional report from the FT that the Bank of England would look to delay its original quantitative tightening (QT) plan may be at the root of some of the broad risk-on, as hopes that other central banks will slow the tightening pressure could bring some relief to deteriorating liquidity across markets. Crude oil (CLX2 & LCOZ2) Crude oil prices stabilized in early Asian hours on Tuesday after a slight decline yesterday. WTI futures rose towards $86/barrel while Brent was above $91. Chinese demand concerns however weighed on the commodities complex coming out of the weekend CCP announcements on Zero Covid. On the OPEC front, Algeria's Energy Minister echoed familiar rhetoric from the group that the decision to reduce output is a purely technical response to the world economic circumstances. US treasuries (TLT, IEF) US treasury yields fell slightly, and the curve steepened in a session marked by far less volatility than the gyrations elsewhere, as the US dollar sold off and risk sentiment squeezed sharply higher. At stake for the longer end of the curve is whether yields remain sticky near the key 4.00% level and head higher still. Data this week is generally second tier stuff. If treasuries rally, the downside focus would be on the 3.84% pivot low in yields. What is going on? Hot Q3 CPI in New Zealand data jolts RBNZ rate expectations The Q3 CPI report came in far above expectations, with the headline printing at 2.2% q/q and +7.2% YoY, far above the 1.5/6.5% expected. This took RBNZ rate expectations sharply higher, and the NZD snapped higher as well. The market is now leaning for the RBNZ to hike by 75 basis points (about 70 bps priced in) at the November 23 meeting, which would be the first time the bank has hiked by more than 50 basis points for this cycle. NZDUSD rose to 0.5700 and AUDNZD punched lower to near 2-month lows after breaking below 1.11 with RBA minutes continuing to highlight concerns of rapid tightening for housing market and household budgets. Q3 earnings recap Bank of America beat estimates yesterday with stronger earnings on disciplined cost controls and robust client activity across both the commercial banking and investment banking activities. Q3 EPS was down 5% y/y, which is much better than its peers, and up q/q to $0.81 from $0.79 in Q2. The US bank is seeing a little slowdown in consumer spending, but it is still minimal supporting the view that the US consumer remains strong and with confidence in the future despite the tighter financial conditions this year. S&P 500 Q3 EPS is down 1.9% q/q but given the weakness among US banks q/q it is too early to say whether this will end up being the conclusion when the entire S&P 500 has reported earnings. Japanese yen paying no heed to jawboning efforts The US dollar moved lower on Monday, but that was no respite for the Japanese yen, which was the only G10 currency that weakened further on Monday, continuing to test the intervention limits of the authorities. USDJPY rose to 149.08, printing fresh 32-year highs. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda was out overnight noting that the BoJ is watching the market and that JPY weakening drives inflation, but that inflation would eventually fall. He was also defiant when a lawmaker suggested he should resign, saying he had no plans to quit. While intervention expectations rose, the yen remains weak, with EURJPY, for example, hitting new cycle highs and the highest level in nearly eight years. Natural gas prices continue to fall in Europe … with the Netherlands 1-month forward contract falling more than 10% yesterday and at its lowest level since late June as EU storage is essentially fully and weather has been mild thus far this fall. Germany announced that it would keep its three remaining nuclear plants in operation until at least mid-April, cancelling their planned mothballing for now, although there are still no strong signs of a strategic rethink from Germany on the future of nuclear power. NY Fed manufacturing headline lower on mixed components The NY Fed manufacturing survey for October fell to -9.1, contracting for a third consecutive month and coming in below the expected -4.0 and the prior -1.5. While survey data remains hard to trust to decipher economic trends, given a small sample size and questioning techniques impacting results, it is worth noting that more factories are turning downbeat about future business conditions which fell 10 points to -1.8 and was the second weakest since 2009. Also, the prices paid measure rose for the first time since June, echoing similar results as seen from the University of Michigan survey. The U.S. housing market bubble is deflating According to the latest data released by the real estate company Redfin, the U.S. housing market is going through a severe drop in prices in several major cities. From May 2022 to October 2022, the drop in sale prices is the most pronounced in Oakland (minus 16 %), San Jose (minus 14 %), Austin (minus 14 %), Ogden in Utah (minus 11 %) and San Francisco (minus 9 %). The decrease is the most important in California and Texas where home prices jumped sharply in the aftermath of the Covid outbreak. So far, the decrease in prices is positive news for inflation and for home buyers, as the affordability index was at historical levels a few months ago. But this could seriously increase the ongoing economic slowdown. Note that we will see important indicators on the US housing market this week – more below. What are we watching next? US Housing Market Data Housing markets are very interest rate sensitive and thus generally a leading indicator on the direction of the economy. Financing for US house purchases is mostly done on a 30-year fixed mortgage basis, meaning that most of the impact from rising rates, a global phenomenon, is on new purchases in the US. (This contrasts with the floating rates that are popular elsewhere – note the Australian RBA’s and Bank of England’s concerns on housing impact from sharp rate rises). Today we get the Oct. NAHB Housing Market survey, one of the more leading US indicators on housing demand and a survey that has been in freefall in recent months – dropping from 83 in January to 46 last month and expected Earnings to watch Today’s earnings focus is Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, and Lockheed Martin. Headwinds have been building for Netflix since the pandemic growth sprint and analysts expect revenue growth to have slowed down to 5% y/y in Q3 and EPS of $2.22 down 23% y/y and down 12% q/q. Johnson & Johnson is expected to see flat revenue growth in Q3 which given other consumer staples companies might be a bit too pessimistic and we believe there is a good chance that Johnson & Johnson can surprise to the upside given what we know about the US consumer. Today: Charles Schwab, Johnson & Johnson, Goldman Sachs, Intuitive Surgical, Lockheed Martin, Truist Financial, Netflix Wednesday: ASML, Elevance Health, Tesla, IBM, Lam Research, P&G, Abbott Laboratories, Atlas Copco Thursday: China Mobile, China Telecom, ABB, Danaher, Investor, Philip Morris, Union Pacific, CSX, AT&T, Blackstone, Marsh & McLennan, Yara International, Nordea, Volvo, Ericsson, Freeport-McMoRan, Dow, Snap Friday: CATL, American Express, Schlumberger, Verizon Communications, HCA Healthcare, Sika Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0900 – Germany Oct. ZEW Survey 1215 – Canada Sep. Housing Starts 1315 – US Sep. Industrial Production 1400 – US Oct. NAHB Housing Market Index 1600 – ECB's Schnabel to speak 2130 – US Fed’s Kashkari (voter 2023) to speak Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-oct-18-2022-18102022
At The Close Of The New York Stock Exchange 728 Securities Closed In The Red

On The New York Stock Exchange, The Price Of Over 2,000 Securities Has Risen

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 19.10.2022 08:19
At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones was up 1.12%, the S&P 500 was up 1.14% and the NASDAQ Composite was up 0.90%. Salesforce Inc was the top performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 6.35 points or 4.31% to close at 153.53. Quotes of American Express Company rose by 4.45 points (3.14%), closing the session at 145.99. JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM) rose 2.98 points or 2.57% to close at 118.84. The losers were shares of Intel Corporation, which lost 0.55 points or 2.08% to end the session at 25.87. Johnson & Johnson was up 0.58 points (0.35%) to close at 166.01, while Nike Inc was down 0.29 points (0.32%) to end at 89. 68. Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Carnival Corporation, which rose 11.28% to 8.09, Lockheed Martin Corporation, which gained 8.69% to close at 431.84, and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NYSE:NCLH), which rose 8.57% to close at 14.31. The biggest losers were Moderna Inc, which shed 3.71% to close at 134.09. Shares of Hasbro Inc lost 2.88% to end the session at 65.76. Quotes of DexCom Inc decreased in price by 2.81% to 96.93. Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were COMSovereign Holding Corp, which rose 170.14% to hit 0.12, Akouos Inc, which gained 88.16% to close at 13.19, and shares of Helbiz Inc, which rose by 58.07%, ending the session at around 0.42. The biggest losers were Agrify Corp, which shed 58.60% to close at 4.43. Shares of Cosmos Holdings Inc lost 47.33% and ended the session at 0.08. Quotes of Salarius Pharmaceuticals Inc decreased in price by 45.18% to 2.74. On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (2293) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (825), while quotes of 115 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2441 companies rose in price, 1295 fell, and 277 remained at the level of the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 2.77% to 30.50. Gold futures for December delivery lost 0.43%, or 7.10, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for December delivery fell 2.33%, or 1.97, to $82.56 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for December delivery fell 1.43%, or 1.31, to $90.31 a barrel. Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.20% to 0.99, while USD/JPY edged up 0.12% to hit 149.21. Futures on the USD index fell 0.02% to 111.88.   Relevance up to 03:00 2022-10-20 UTC+00 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/297377
The Australian Market Has Seen Growth | Mercedes-Benz Launches New EV

The Australian Market Has Seen Growth | Mercedes-Benz Launches New EV

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 19.10.2022 09:48
Summary:  Better-than-expected corporate results boosted US stocks for the second day. Afterhours Netflix shares rose 14% on reporting better than expected results. Oil prices fell 3% with the US said to release more strategic petroleum reserves on supply concerns. Gold advanced. Floods hampered commodity production numbers in Australia. RBA notes loan arrears and insolvencies are rising. Mercedes-Benz launched new EV models that rival Tesla’s Model Y. Rio Tinto sees lithium tightness. What’s happening in markets?   The Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) indices rally for the second day  US stocks extended their gains in choppy trading, with the S&P500 gaining 1.1% and now up 3.8% in two days after continuing to rebound from nearly oversold levels, before closing at 3,719.98 points (its highest level in 8-days) on better-than-expected corporate results. All 11 sectors of the S&P500 gained, with Industrial, Materials, Utilities, and Financials leading. Defense giant, Lockheed Martin (LMT:xnys) shares gained the most since 2020, up 8.7% after its earnings per share topped estimates. Goldman Sachs (GS:xnys) rose over 2%, with stronger trading results helping the investment bank beat quarterly earnings and revenue expectations. Goldman’s results continued a strong stretch of bank earnings, including beats from Bank of America (BAC:xnys) and Bank of New York Mellon (BK:xnys) on Monday, with the financial sector outperforming on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Afterhours, Netflix (NFLX:xnas) shares rose 14% after reporting better than expected results, adding 2.4 million customers in the 3Q, beating expectations. The rally was also supported by the Bank of England calming nerves saying, the funds whose vulnerabilities also fueled the rout in UK markets have now raised tens of billions of pounds in capital, and as such are on a more sustainable footing. U.S. treasury (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) ended Tuesday little changed Treasuries finished a choppy session with yields largely staying near the levels from the day before. The 2-year yield was 1bp richer at 4.43% and the 10-year yield was unchanged at 4%. U.S. economic data were mixed with stronger industrial production in September but a below-expectation read in the NAHB Housing Market Index. Contrary to a Financial Times report suggesting the Bank of England would delay its quantitative tightening program, the U.K. central bank announced later in the day that it will start bond sales on Nov 1 but not including long-dated bonds initially. Australia’s ASX200 (ASXSP200.1) rises 0.3%, with lithium stocks charging, while energy companies retreat after the oil price fell 3%. The Australian share market trades 0.3% higher on Wednesday (1.5 hours into the seesion) with lithium stocks like Pilbara Minerals, (PLS), Allkem (AKE) up over 3% (for more on lithium see below). Meanwhile, the energy sector is capping broad market gains, with selling in oil stocks taking the energy sector down 1.6% after the oil price fell 3.1% to $82.82, with the US said to release emergency crude on supply concerns. Meanwhile losses in oil stocks are somewhat limited with OPEC+ members defending their supply cuts, saying they are justified by the growing risk of a global recession. Woodside (WDS) trades 1.7% down. Beach Energy (BPT) is down the most in the sector, 4.6%, after reporting production dropped amid flooding. The best performing stock on the ASX this year, Whitehaven (WHC) trades 2.2% lower today after announcing production fell 37% last quarter, with total equity sales down 32% compared the June quarter. Whitehaven Coal’s CEO said he sees demand for high quality coal continuing to outstrip global supply, which will likely continue to support coal prices. The coal price has fallen 3% this month, and is now down 15% from its all-time high. Meanwhile, gold stocks are also in focus after Gold prices steadied after the US dollar continued to fall. However St Barbara (SBM) shares are 6.2% lower after the miner cut its gold output forecast for the year, which disappointed analysts. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIV2) China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hong Kong stocks rallied, with Hang Seng rising 1.8%, following the move higher in U.S. equity index futures on reports that the Bank of England was delaying its quantitative tightening due to start at the end of October. The Bank of England denied the story later. HSBC (00005:xhkg) and Standard Chartered (02888:xhkg) gained more than 2.5%. BYD (01211:xhkg) surged 6.4% after the leading EV maker said its Q3 profit was set to rise as much as 365% Y/Y, lifting most other EV makers 3%-5% higher in share prices as well. Healthcare names surged again, with Ali Health (00241:xhkg) up 9.4%, Hansoh Pharmaceutical (03692:xhkg) up 5.9%, CSPC Pharmaceutical (01093:xhkg) up 4.5%, Sino Biopharmaceutical (01177:xhkg) up 4% and some biotech stocks soared more than 10%. Chinese airlines stocks gained from 2% to 3% after some Chinese airlines, including China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines, announced the resumption of some more international flights. CSI300 ended a choppy session losing 0.2%. USDJPY climbed to 149.37, the highest level since 1990, and oil price fell to USD83.70 The Yen weekend to 149.37 with the 150 figure in sight. EURUSD, at 0.9850, and GBPUSD, at 1.1330 were little changed from Monday. NZDUSD was the notable outperformer among the G10 currencies, rising to 0.5690 while USDCAD underperformed as oil prices slumped, WTI crude fell 2% to USD83.70 on the report that the Biden administration has approved to release of more strategic petroleum reserves. What to consider? Stronger-than-expected industrial production but a softer NAHB Housing Index U.S. September industrial production came in at +0.4% M/M, (vs consensus: 0.1%, Aug: -0.1% revised) and capacity utilization increased 0.2pp to 80.3%. NAHB Housing Market Index fell to 38, below 43 expected and 46 in August. RBA sounds alarm that rate hikes could soon pause with loan arrears and insolvencies rising The Aussie dollar rose for the 3rd day after the after the USD continued to lose strength when the UK re winded some tax cuts. However, the outlook for the Australian dollar against the US remains restricted, with the RBA noting loan arrears and insolvencies have picked up in Australia. Yesterday's RBA Meeting Minutes highlighted the RBA has little room to rise rates, without compromising the health of the economy. The RBA was only able to raise rates by 0.25% this month, as business insolvencies had picked up, plus a low level of loan arrears were seen, while housing loan commitments declined -  ‘demonstrating the effect of high interest rates on housing’. Lithium sector news; Mercedes-Benz launches new EV that rivals Tesla’s Model Y. Rio Tinto sees lithium tightness Mercedes-Benz (MBR) broadened its electric vehicle range on the eve of the Paris car show; unveiling a new sporty vehicle that’s US$4,300 cheaper than Tesla’s Model Y, with Mercedes selling the EQE SUV later this year for US$68,000. The new sporty EV Merc also has a 590 kilometres range, means it travels 76 kilometres more than Tesla’s Y Model. Mercedes also plans to offer EV versions of all of its vehicles by the end of this year. And aims to only sell EVs by 2030, particularly in markets phasing out fuel engines. Also in Lithium news yesterday, Rio Tinto (RIO) said the lithium market is experiencing tightness, while demand continues to strengthen from government policies, and EV producers rolling out new models. Lithium carbonate prices remained elevated in the quarter after Power rationing in China’s Sichuan province (a key lithium supply hub) also led to production cuts. Also, Australia’s biggest pure play lithium company Pilbara Minerals (PLS) sold spodumene concentrate at a new record high price, equating to $7,830 a ton.     For our look ahead at markets this week - Listen/watch our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast. Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/market-insights-today-19-oct-19102022
CHF/JPY Hits Fresh All-Time High in Strong Bullish Uptrend

Demand For Netflix Remains Strong | The USD/JPY Pair Is Significantly Approaching The 150.00 Level

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 19.10.2022 09:58
Summary:  A choppy session for equities yesterday as an intraday rally to new local highs was erased and before futures shot higher in late trading yesterday on surprisingly positive results from Netflix, helping to keep the sharp rally off the recent bear market lows alive for now. Meanwhile, bond yields remain pinned near cycle highs, keeping the pressure on the struggling Japanese yen, while the Chinese renminbi threatens new lows versus a mixed US dollar.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) Volatility remains high in the US and equities continued higher yesterday with S&P 500 futures closing at the 3,732 level and pushing higher this morning trading around the 3,747 level. Our view is that the move in US bond yields will dictate direction and with the US 10-year yield pushing higher trading around the 4.05% level this morning we could see a reversal in the equity market. Better than feared results from Netflix also boosted the technology and media segments of the US equity market. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIV2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hang Seng Index fell more than 1% by mid-day, as China Internet stocks reversing the bounce in the past two days, falling from 2% to 4%, and local property developer names paring early gains as the relief for extra stamp duties for non-resident home buyers in the maiden Policy Address of the Hong Kong Chief Executive is less extensive than expected. Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016:xhkg) dropped 1.5% and New World Development (00017:xhkg) plunged 4%. Hong Kong Stock Exchange (00388:xhkg), falling 0.6%, reported a 30% Y/Y decline in EPS in Q3, slightly better-than-feared. Shipping stocks gained, with tanker and dry bulk operator COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (01138:xhkg) soaring more than 11% and leading the charge higher. In mainland bourses, the CSI300 fell 0.9% while shipping names and educational service providers outperformed. Risk sentiment keeps USD under pressure, but bigger focus on struggling JPY, CNH The US dollar bobbed around in correlation with risk sentiment and is still supported at the margin by US treasury yields remaining near the highs for the cycle, with the 10-year treasury benchmark above 4.00% this morning. The most interesting development is that, despite the somewhat mixed to lower US dollar relative to its recent top, the Japanese yen remains near the lows for the cycle on the ongoing rise in global yields, with USDJPY just shy of the 150.00 level that some believe could bring an official intervention. Likewise, USDCNH saw its highest daily close yesterday just above 7.22 and is looking higher still above 7.2400 this morning, with broad CNH weakness intensifying. Is China looking to take its currency significantly lower? Crude oil (CLX2 & LCOZ2) Crude oil prices traded heavily yesterday as US president Biden said that it would release 15 million more barrels from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and could possibly release further barrels this winter. Petrol prices are clearly a concern, and the administration is in an all-out effort to suppress prices ahead of the mid-term election early next month, although releases from reserves will do little to relieve the pinch in especially diesel supplies, where inventories are at record lows on shipments of diesel to the even tighter European markets. At some point, the SPR cannot be credibly tapped for further supplies – as the administration has tapped nearly 200 million barrels from reserves this year already, about a third of the total in storage. US treasuries (TLT, IEF) US treasury yields remain near the highs, with the 10-year treasury benchmark still above 4.00% this morning, with little incoming data of sufficient importance to prompt volatility until the week after next, which will bring both the next key jobs report as well as the next FOMC meeting. An auction of 20-year T-notes is up later today. What is going on? ASML beats Q3 estimates on revenue and gross margin The world’s largest semiconductor equipment maker posts Q3 revenue of €5.8bn vs est. €5.3bn and gross margin of 51.8% vs est. 49.5%. While gross margin beats in Q3 the company’s forecast for Q4 of 49% misses estimates of 50.3% and ASML expects to delay revenue of €2.2bn into 2023. Q4 revenue forecast is €6.1-6.6bn vs est. €6.1bn as the CEO says demand remains strong. The company says that US export rules on semiconductors to have minimal impact on shipments in 2023, but at the same time the company says that it expects to revisit 2025 scenarios and growth opportunities. China is around 15% of sales for ASML. Netflix proves sceptics wrong on strong subscriber figures Netflix surprised investors last night by defying the pessimists that had projected dire subscriber figure, but Netflix reported net change of 2.4mn vs est. 1mn despite price hikes suggesting demand remains strong. The company forecasts Q4 net change in subscribers of 4.5mn vs est. 3.9mn but will not provide future forecasts on paid subscribers after Q4. The company sees worse than expected revenue and EPS figures in Q4 compared to estimates. Netflix also said that it is seeing strong demand for its advertising capacity which is good news for shareholders as advertising is the next big revenue leg for Netflix. Shares were up 14% in extended trading. Johnson & Johnson sees FX headwinds Q3 revenue and EPS in line with estimates suggesting low revenue growth of just 2% y/y and the company says it expects FX headwinds on EPS of 6-7% next year and that modest layoffs are likely. Lockheed Martin expects flat sales in 2023 Q3 revenue at $16.6bn was in line with estimates while EPS of $6.87 beat estimates. Backlog increased 4% y/y to $139.7bn but expects a flat revenue growth in 2023 and lower margins indicating that Lockheed Martin is not expecting to benefit significantly from the war in Ukraine. It should be said that the CEO said demand is strong for its Javelin missile system that is being used in Ukraine. Despite muted growth expectations the company’s decision to expand its buybacks lifted shares considerably in yesterday’s session. US NAHB Housing Market Index plunged further in October … pointing to a rapidly weaking US housing market. The index peaked in late 2020 at a record 90 level and began this year at 83 before the impact of rapidly rising interest rates drove a steep decline in activity. The October level was 38, below expectations of 43 and the September reading of 46. Only two readings since 2012 have come in below the current level, both of which were posted in the panic months during the Covid pandemic outbreak in early 2020. This index has proven a strong leading indicator with a very long and variable lag in past economic cycles, but pointing to headwinds to develop for employment and the broader economy at some point next year. Bank of Japan’s Kuroda keeps foot on the easing pedal The Bank of Japan governor said that a stable weak JPY is a net positive for Japan and merely spoke against the negative effects of "excessive” moves. Another BoJ member Adachi spoke in favour of the current policy of negative rates and yield-curve-control, saying that “sticky inflation” would be needed for a shift in policy. USDJPY traded to a new cycle- and 32-year high above 149.30 in early European hours. UK Sep. CPI out this morning slightly above expectations … with the headline at +0.5% MoM and +10.1% YoY (matching the cycle high) vs. 0.4%/10.0% expected, and the core YoY at 6.5% vs. 6.4% expected. The latter was the highest for the cycle and highest since 1992. What are we watching next? Australian earnings season commodity production amid weather and labour issues Mostly weaker than expected quarterly production and outlooks were released today from BHP, Whitehaven Coal, Beach Energy and St Barbara with these commodity giants in coal, oil and gold being hit by poor weather, flooding and labour shortage issues. Whitehaven (WHC) announced production fell 37% last quarter amid poor weather and labour shortages. The Whitehaven Coal CEO says it sees demand for high quality coal continuing to outstrip global supply. That said, the Newcastle Coal price is 3% this month and about 15% lower than its all-time high. Earnings to watch Today’s earnings focus is ASML (see our earnings review above) and Atlas Copco in Europe, and Tesla and P&G in the US. We wrote a preview on Tesla Q3 earnings in yesterday’s equity note but the main focus is the supply situation on lithium and to what extent demand is impacted from higher electricity prices. Today: ASML, Elevance Health, Tesla, IBM, Lam Research, P&G, Abbott Laboratories, Atlas Copco Thursday: China Mobile, China Telecom, ABB, Danaher, Investor, Philip Morris, Union Pacific, CSX, AT&T, Blackstone, Marsh & McLennan, Yara International, Nordea, Volvo, Ericsson, Freeport-McMoRan, Dow, Snap Friday: CATL, American Express, Schlumberger, Verizon Communications, HCA Healthcare, Sika Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 1230 – US Sep. Housing Starts & Building Permits 1230 – Canada Sep. CPI 1300 – UK Bank of England’s Cunliffe to testify 1430 – US Weekly DoE Crude Oil and Product Inventories 1700 – US Fed’s Kashkari (Voter 2023) to speak 1700 – US Treasury auctions 20-year T-notes 1800 – US Fed Beige Book 2230 – US Fed’s Evans (Voter 2023) to speak 2230 – US Fed’s Bullard (Voter) to speak 2350 – Japan Sep. Trade Balance 0030 – Australia Q3 NAB Business Confidence 0030 – Australia Sep. Employment Change/ Unemployment Rate Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-oct-19-2022-19102022
Rising Tensions in Japan Amid Currency Market Concerns and BOJ Insights

Netflix Inc Was Leading Gainer While JP Morgan Chase & Co Was Down

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 20.10.2022 08:16
At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.33%, the S&P 500 fell 0.67% and the NASDAQ Composite fell 0.85%. The components of the Dow Jones index The leading gainers among the components of the Dow Jones index today were The Travelers Companies Inc, which gained 7.40 points or 4.44% to close at 174.17. Chevron Corp rose 5.28 points or 3.24% to close at 168.00. Procter & Gamble Company rose 0.93% or 1.19 points to close at 129.56. The biggest losers were Home Depot Inc, which shed 9.57 points or 3.36% to end the session at 275.49. Dow Inc was up 2.70% or 1.25 points to close at 45.13, while JPMorgan Chase & Co was down 1.96% or 2.33 points to close at 116. .51. The S&P 500 index components Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Netflix Inc, which rose 13.09% to 272.38, Intuitive Surgical Inc, which gained 8.99% to close at 211.14, and shares of Valero Energy Corporation, which rose 5.32% to close the session at 123.96. The biggest losers were Generac Holdings Inc, which shed 25.34% to close at 110.30. Shares of M&T Bank Corp lost 13.89% and ended the session at 163.06. Quotes Northern Trust Corporation fell in price by 9.15% to 79.59. The components of the NASDAQ  Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Mullen Automotive Inc, which rose 57.12% to hit 0.34, Scopus Biopharma Inc, which gained 51.59% to close at 0.37, and also shares of SenesTech Inc, which rose 46.55% to close the session at 0.34. The biggest losers were Olaplex Holdings Inc, which shed 56.69% to close at 4.24. Shares of Agrify Corp lost 42.44% to end the session at 2.55. Quotes of Sientra Inc decreased in price by 37.36% to 0.38.  The number of securities that fell and rise On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2363) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (777), while quotes of 105 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,715 stocks fell, 1,085 rose, and 216 remained at the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 0.89% to 30.77. Commodities Gold futures for December delivery lost 1.31%, or 21.65, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude futures for December delivery rose 3.23%, or 2.65, to $84.72 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for December delivery rose 2.53%, or 2.28, to $92.31 a barrel. FX Market Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD fell 0.79% to hit 0.98, while USD/JPY edged up 0.43% to hit 149.90. Futures on the USD index rose 0.73% to 112.81.   Relevance up to 05:00 2022-10-21 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/297535
Asia Market: Exports In Indonesia Are Likely To Continue To Grow, Chinese Interest Rate Decision Ahead

Australia Has A Growing Number Of Business Insolvencies | Chinese Concept Of Regulating The Way Wealth Is Accumulated

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 20.10.2022 10:42
Summary:  The major US indices, the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 fell on weaker-than-expected company news, Putin clearing martial law, and more hawkish Fed comments. 10-year US bond yields hit 4.14%, its highest since July 2008 which boosted the US dollar against every G-10 peer. Netflix, the standout performer up 13% following their mostly better-than-expected results. Tesla shares slid after hours on weaker-than-expected 3Q results. AU jobs data disappoints, putting the focus back on the AUD and banking shares. Across the Asia Pacific, all eyes are on energy and oil stocks after the Crude oil price lifted 3% on EIA warnings. What’s happening in markets? The Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) fall on weaker than expected company news, Putin clearing martial law & hawkish Fed comments US stocks fell on the backfoot after a two-day rally, with the 10-year US bond yield hitting 4.136% in the session, which is its highest level since July 2008, while 2-years rose to the highest since 2007. That in turn boosted the dollar, which rallied against every G-10 peer. Gold dropped. It comes as Fed speakers warned US inflation continues to surprise to the upside, saying there’s no reason to think key price measures have peaked. Over in UK and Canada CPI came in stronger than expected in September, up 10.1% year on year (YOY) and 6.9% YOY respectively, ensuring the Bank of England and Bank of Canada keep on hiking rates.  Earnings enthusiasm faded with backup generator manufacturing Generac (GNR) shares sliding 25% on slashing its full year sales outlook. While community bank M&T (MTB) shares crumbled 14% on the company reporting weaker than expected results. On the upside, oil stocks charged with Baker Hughes (BKR), Valero Energy (VLO) and Halliburton (HAL) up over 5% each. While Netflix (NFLX) was the stand out performer up 13% following their mostly better than expected result released the day prior as we mentioned here.  S&P 500 dropped 0.7% and Nasdaq 100 slid 0.4%. 10 of the 11 sectors of S&P 500 declined with the notable exception of Energy, which rose 2.9%. 10-year U.S. treasury yields (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) jumped to 4.13% Higher-than-expected U.K. inflation prints, hawkish comments from Fed’s Bullard and Kashkari, poor results from the 20-year treasury bond auction, and corporate bond supply contributed to an around 13bp rise in yields across the curve. The 2-year yield rose to 4.56% and the 10-year surged to 4.13%, both reaching new highs. The 20-year auction was awarded at 2.5bps cheaper than the market level at the time of the auction, indicating poor demand. Corporate bond issuance amounted to around USD15 billion and added to the upward pressure on yields. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIV2) China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hang Seng Index fell 2.4% by mid-day, as China Internet stocks reversed the bounce in the past two days, falling by 4% to 7%, and local property developer names paring early gains as the relief for extra stamp duties for non-resident home buyers in the maiden Policy Address of the Hong Kong Chief Executive is less extensive than expected. Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016:xhkg) dropped 3.6% and New World Development (00017:xhkg) tumbled 7.8%. Hong Kong Stock Exchange (00388:xhkg), falling 2%, reported a 30% Y/Y decline in EPS in Q3, slightly better-than-feared. EV stocks tumbled, with Xpeng (09868:xhkg) falling 9.5% and other leading names losing by 4% to 7%.  Tanker and dry bulk operator COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (01138:xhkg) soared more than 10%. In mainland bourses, the CSI300 fell 1.6%, with Consumer Staple and Consumer Discretionary sectors being the worst performers, falling over 3%. While all major sectors in the CSI300 declined, lithium battery makers, shipping, and coal mining companies gained. Australia’s ASX200 (ASXSP200.1), focus is on bank and energy stocks It’s worth keeping an eye on banking stocks particularly regional banks that could see more volatility, like Suncorp (SUN), Bendigo and Adelaide (BEN) and Bank of Queensland (BOQ). Also, today focus will be on oil stocks like Santos (STO), Woodside Energy Group (WDS) and Beach Energy (BPT) after the oil price darted ahead. Japanese yen flirting with 150, GBP facing political hurdles There is a lot of sense of “urgency” in the Japanese officials as USDJPY continues to flirt with the 150 handle. The surge higher in US yields overnight is likely to further pressure the yen, and FinMin Suzuki’s comments this morning on taking appropriate steps to curb speculative moves still suggest they stand ready to intervene if USDJPY rises above 150. Meanwhile, the rebound in the US dollar weighed on G10 currencies, with GBP suffering despite a pick up n BOE rate hike bets after the higher than expected UK CPI print, as political turmoil continued to weigh. Three officials left the office yesterday, including the Home Secretary and Chief Whip, although there were reports later that some of them will remain in post. Meanwhile, the fight for Truss to stay in office continues. GBPUSD testing the downside at 1.1200. USDCNH climbed to as high as 7.2790 The Chinese offshore yuan weakened to as much as 7.2790 this morning and is trading at around 7.2680 as of writing. Higher U.S. bond yields, sell-offs in Chinese stocks, concerns over a harsher line on income redistribution in China, and reports about talks on the joint production of weapons between the U.S. and Taiwan weighed on the yuan.  Gold (XAUUSD) slumps as the dollar momentum returns Gold prices heading lower to test the support at $1620/oz amid risk aversion and higher Fed bets propelling US yields higher and a rebound in the US dollar. Hawkish Fed speak yesterday, together with fresh highs in UK CPI, suggested higher-for-longer inflation and interest rates, while demand for the yellow metal also remains depressed due to ongoing lockdowns in China.  Crude oil (CLX2 & LCOZ2) in focus again following EIA warnings Oil extended gains rising 3.3% to $85.55 after EIA earlier reported US crude stockpiles dropped by 1.73 million barrels last week. Four-week seasonal demand for distillate fuels soared to the highest since 2007 while inventories remained at the lowest point on record for this time of year.  What to consider? Fed speakers further up the hawkish ante James Bullard and Neel Kashkari kept up their hawkish Fed rhetoric, in light of the burgeoning global price pressures. Bullard warned that inflation continues to surprise to the upside and the Fed needs to continue to act, also emphasising higher-for-longer rates even if inflation starts to decline in 2023. Kashkari (2023 voter) added that there is no reason to think that key price measures have peaked, and he sees little evidence of a labor market softening. He also reiterated the Saxo view that “risk of under shooting on rate hikes bigger than overdoing it”. He also said his best guess is the Fed can pause hikes sometime next year but he favours rate hikes until core inflation starts to cool, noting the Fed's rate changes take a year or so to work through the economy. Chicago Fed President Evans was also on the wires this morning, and given that he’s retiring next year, he was accepting of the fact that “beginning rate hikes six months earlier would have made sense.” UK CPI comes out hotter than expected, Euro headline inflation more subtle UK inflation came in at double-digits again, matching the 40-year high in July, at 10.1% y/y. This puts further pressure on the Bank of England to go big with its rate hike at the November meeting. Price pressures were broad-based, but most notable was the increase in food price. Scaling back of aid for electricity and natural gas prices, as suggested by the latest fiscal measures announced by Chancellor Hunt, could fuel further inflationary pressures next year. Eurozone headline inflation, on the other hand, was revised lower to 9.9% for September from flash reading of 10.0% but core measure rose to 5.8% y/y from 5.2% y/y in August, coming in at a record high. The ECB is expected to raise rates by 75bps at the October 27 meeting. Tesla shares slide after hours on reporting weaker-than-expected results Tesla (TSLA) shares fell 2.7% after hours when the EV giant reported third-quarter sales falling short of analyst estimates, noting the US dollar’s growing strength, along with production and delivery bottlenecks impacted results. Tesla’s Revenue rose to $21.5 billion, versus $22.1 billion expected by Wall Street. Profit rose to $1.05 a share, exceeding the $1.01 average Bloomberg estimate. And the closely watched Q3 automotive gross margin, came in at 27.9%, missed the 28.4% expected. Tesla cited higher costs related to a slower-than-expected ramp up in output at new factories, as well as difficulties shipping vehicles. Tesla’s shares are down almost 45% from their high against the backdrop of a slowing economy, higher inflation and rising interest rates, plus Musk’s $44 billion bid to buy Twitter. For more on Tesla click here to read Peter Garnry’s note. Discussion between the U.S. and Taiwan on joint weapon production According to Nikkei Asia, the Biden administration and Taiwan are in talks for American defense companies to provide Taiwan technology to manufacture weapons in Taiwan or to ship Taiwan-made parts to make weapons in the U.S. This, reading together with U.S. Secretary of State Blinken’s warning this Monday that “a fundamental decision that the status quo was no longer acceptable and that Beijing was determined to pursue reunification on a much faster timeline” and President Biden’s remarks of deploying U.S. forces to defend Taiwan in a CBS 60 Minutes interview last month, stirred up some unease among investors. Separately on Wednesday, Taiwan conducted live-fire military drills on Penghu Island, an archipelago in the Taiwan Strait. Investors are feeling unease about the introduction of the concept of regulating the means of accumulated wealth in China in an official document in China Market chatters show some investors are feeling unease about the phrase “we will improve the personal income tax system and keep income distribution and the means of accumulating wealth well-regulated” in the Work Report delivered by General Secretary Xi at the Chinese Communist Party’s National Congress last Sunday. The concept of regulating the means of accumulating wealth (规范财富积累机制) shows up in an official document for the first time. Hong Kong’s Chief Executive John Lee unveils his plans for active industrial policies and integration into national development schemes In his maiden Policy Address, Chief Executive John Lee unveils a Steering Group on Integration into National Development to devise strategic plans to integrate Hong Kong’s economy into the mainland’s Greater Bay Area development scheme and the Belt and Road Initiative. Li also rolls out investment-led measures aiming to boost the Hong Kong economy, including setting up a Hong Kong Investment Corporation which will establish and fund an HKD30 billion public-private co-investment fund to invest in projects that potentially drive industry development in Hong Kong. Hong Kong will also establish the Office for Attracting Strategic Enterprises whose mandate is to attract business enterprises from the mainland and overseas through favorable tax, financing, land provision, and other incentives. Weaker yen to prop up Japan inflation further Japan’s inflation data for September is due for release on Friday, and as signalled by the Tokyo CPI released earlier this month, price pressures are likely to pick up further. Bloomberg consensus expects the core measure (ex-fresh food) to come in at 3.0% y/y from August’s 2.8% y/y while the core-core measure (ex-fresh food and energy) is expected at 1.8% y/y in September from 1.6% y/y previously. The headline is expected to be a notch softer at 2.9% y/y from 3.0% y/y, but still remain way above the 2% target level. Weakness in the yen prompted an intervention from the Bank of Japan in September but the effect faded fast and the currency was significantly weaker in the month, which possible led to import price pressures. Still, the central bank is unlikely to shift its easing stance and will likely continue to wait for the global pressures to ease and USD to top out.       Aussie unemployment rises. Employment falls Traders digested much weaker than expected jobs data for September. Data released today showed just 923 jobs were added to the economy, much weaker than the 25,000 jobs Bloomberg estimated to be added. It also shows employment is falling ahead of RBA’s expectations, with less jobs added to the Australian economy, following last month’s 33,500 jobs being added. Also in important news; the unemployment rate rose by less than 0.1 percentage points, but remained at 3.5% in rounded terms. The reason for this is because rate rises and rising inflation is having a greater impact on the corporate world with the RBA also noting business insolvencies are rising in Australia.   For our look ahead at markets this week - Listen/watch our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast. Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/market-insights-today-20-oct-20102022
Conflict Over Taiwan Would Trigger A Huge Global economic Shock

Deployment Of US Forces To Defend Taiwan |Because Of Global Price Pressure, The Fed Strategy Will Remain Unchanged And More

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 20.10.2022 12:43
Summary:  Equity markets rolled over yesterday suffering in the headwinds of a fresh strong rise in US treasury yields, as the entire US yield curve lifted to new highs for the cycle. After the close, the heavily traded Tesla reported disappointing revenue and margins and traded some 6% lower in late trading. Elsewhere, the rise in yields is pushing hard on the JPY to weaken further, but the USDJPY rate of 150.00 it’s clearly a psychological barrier for official intervention-wary traders.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) The S&P 500 index closed the day –0.7% lower and the Nasdaq 100 index was down –0.4% (although far lower from the overnight highs posted after the Netflix earnings late Tuesday) Still, this was not that weak a performance, given the fresh strong lift in treasury yields, with the price action holding up relatively well after the close of trading yesterday despite the disappointing Tesla results that took that heavily traded stock down sharply after the close. The further outlook for treasury yields on incoming data, as well as the heavy earnings calendar of next week, are likely to set the tone for equity markets from here. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIV2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIV2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hong Kong stocks tumbled with Hang Seng Index down 2.4% hitting 13-year lows. Higher U.S. bond yields and the Chinese Yuan weakening to new lows weighed on the markets. To add to the woes, investors have become increasingly concerned about the potential policy implications of the concept of “regulating the means of accumulating wealth” and US-Taiwan discussions on joint manufacturing of defensive capabilities (more below) China Internet names sold off 5% to 9%. CSI 300 declined 0.7%. Semiconductor stocks are the notable outperformers in both the Hong Kong and mainland bourses.  SMIC (00981:xhkg) gained 0.9% and Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347:xhkg) climbed 3.2%. Maximum support for the US dollar from rising treasury yields, but price action uninspiring The US dollar is getting about as much support as it conceivably can from a fresh rise in US treasury yields, but the impact on the currency has been minimal, as it feels as if a large finger has pressed the paus button – could this be a widespread nervousness as traders look at the USDJPY level perched near 150.00, with pressure from rising global yields for the JPY to weaken further, but with market participants knowing that a large bout of official Japanese intervention will be forthcoming at some point above that level? Relatively stable sentiment despite the fresh surge in treasury yields may also be behind the lackluster price action in USD pairs here, with USDCNH correcting back lower after its burst higher yesterday on a strong CNY fixing overnight another source of resistance for the greenback. Crude oil (CLX2 & LCOZ2) in focus again following EIA warnings November WTI extended gains rising above $86/barrel overnight after the EIA yesterday reported US crude stockpiles dropped by 1.73 million barrels last week. Four-week seasonal demand for distillate fuels soared to the highest since 2007 while inventories remained at the lowest point on record for this time of year. Oil stocks charged higher with Baker Hughes, Valero Energy and Halliburton up over 5% each. Gold (XAUUSD) slumps as the dollar momentum returns Gold prices heading lower to test the support at $1620/oz amid risk aversion and higher Fed bets propelling US yields higher and a rebound in the US dollar. Hawkish Fed speak yesterday, together with fresh highs in UK CPI, suggested higher-for-longer inflation and interest rates, while demand for the yellow metal also remains depressed due to ongoing lockdowns in China. US treasuries (TLT, IEF)   US treasury yields lifted all along the curve, with the 2-year rising above 4.55% for the first time and the 10-year yield lifting aggressively to almost 4.15%, well clear of the 4.00% level that seemed to be providing bond market support in recent weeks. What is going on? Fed speakers further up the hawkish ante James Bullard and Neel Kashkari kept up their hawkish Fed rhetoric, in light of the burgeoning global price pressures. Bullard warned that inflation continues to surprise to the upside and the Fed needs to continue to act, also emphasising higher-for-longer rates even if inflation starts to decline in 2023, though he also suggested that “front-loading” of hikes is likely to end early next year (market pricing this anyway). Kashkari (2023 voter) added that there is no reason to think that key price measures have peaked, and he sees little evidence of a labor market softening. He also reiterated the Saxo view that “risk of under shooting on rate hikes bigger than overdoing it”. He also said his best guess is the Fed can pause hikes sometime next year but he favours rate hikes until core inflation starts to cool, noting the Fed's rate changes take a year or so to work through the economy. Chicago Fed President Evans was also on the wires this morning, and given that he’s retiring next year, he was accepting of the fact that “beginning rate hikes six months earlier would have made sense.” Tesla misses on revenue growth and margins, reaffirms longer term growth guidance Investors are used to Tesla beating estimates but last night the EV-maker surprised investors missing revenue and automotive gross margin estimates as the EV-maker faced battery constraints during the quarter and delivery transportation capacity during peak deliveries at the end of the quarter. While the company disappointed against estimates revenue growth was still impressive 56% y/y and the company is reiterating its 50% average growth target over the coming years, something analysts are not agreeing with seeing revenue growth declining to 14% in 2025. Shares were down 6% in late trading after the report. Discussion between the U.S. and Taiwan on joint weapon production According to Nikkei Asia, the Biden administration and Taiwan are in talks for American defense companies to provide Taiwan technology to manufacture weapons in Taiwan or to ship Taiwan-made parts to make weapons in the U.S. This, reading together with U.S. Secretary of State Blinken’s warning this Monday that “a fundamental decision that the status quo was no longer acceptable and that Beijing was determined to pursue reunification on a much faster timeline” and President Biden’s remarks of deploying U.S. forces to defend Taiwan in a CBS 60 Minutes interview last month, stirred up some unease among investors. Separately on Wednesday, Taiwan conducted live-fire military drills on Penghu Island, an archipelago in the Taiwan Strait. Chinese Investors uneasy about the introduction of policy language on wealth regulation Market chatters indicate that some investors are feeling unease about the potential policy implications of the phrase “we will improve the personal income tax system and keep income distribution and the means of accumulating wealth well-regulated” in the Work Report delivered by General Secretary Xi at the Chinese Communist Party’s National Congress last Sunday. The concept of regulating the means of accumulating wealth shows up in an official document for the first time. Weak Aussie September jobs report for September, supporting less hawkish RBA The data showed just 923 jobs were added to the economy, vs the +25k consensus from Bloomberg. It also shows employment is falling far ahead of RBA’s expectations, following last month’s 33,500 jobs being added. The unemployment rate also rose, by less than 0.1 percentage points but remained at 3.5% in rounded terms. It comes as part-time employment fell by 12,400. Recently the RBA noted business insolvencies were rising, and today’s data shows that the official stats are reflecting this too. That said, of the Australian mining companies reporting quarterly result this week, most reported labour shortages are continuing, which is affecting production. What are we watching next? Weaker yen to prop up Japan inflation further   Japan’s inflation data for September is due for release on Friday (tonight), and as signalled by the Tokyo CPI released earlier this month, price pressures are likely to pick up further. Bloomberg consensus expects the core measure (ex-fresh food) to come in at 3.0% y/y from August’s 2.8% y/y while the core-core measure (ex-fresh food and energy) is expected at 1.8% y/y in September from 1.6% y/y previously. The headline is expected to be a notch softer at 2.9% y/y from 3.0% y/y, but still remain way above the 2% target level. Weakness in the yen prompted an intervention from the Bank of Japan in September but the effect faded fast and the currency was significantly weaker in the month, which possible led to import price pressures. Still, the central bank is unlikely to shift its easing stance and will likely continue to wait for the global pressures to ease and USD to top out.         Earnings to watch Today’s earnings focus is on Swedish power and automation equipment maker ABB, diversified and medical equipment maker Danaher, miner Freeport McMoRan and mobile network equipment maker Ericsson. Today: China Mobile, China Telecom, ABB, Danaher, Investor, Philip Morris, Union Pacific, CSX, AT&T, Blackstone, Marsh & McLennan, Yara International, Nordea, Volvo, Ericsson, Freeport-McMoRan, Dow, Snap Friday: CATL, American Express, Schlumberger, Verizon Communications, HCA Healthcare, Sika Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 1100 – Turkey Rate Announcement 1230 – Canada Sep. Teranet/National Bank Home Price Index 1230 – US Oct. Philadelphia Fed Business Survey 1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 1400 – US Sep. Existing Home Sales 1400 – US Sep. Leading Index 1430 – US Weekly Natural Gas Storage Change 2145 – New Zealand Sep. Trade Balance 2301 – UK Oct. GfK Consumer Confidence 2330 – Japan Sep. National CPI Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-oct-20-2022-20102022
At The Close On The New York Stock Exchange Indices Closed Mixed

The NASDAQ Composite Was Down 0.61% And The Biggest Losers Were Talaris Therapeutics Inc

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.10.2022 08:14
At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones was down 0.30%, the S&P 500 was down 0.80% and the NASDAQ Composite was down 0.61%.  The Dow Jones index The leading gainer among the components of the Dow Jones index today was International Business Machines, which gained 5.79 points (4.73%) to close at 128.30. Salesforce Inc rose 3.83 points or 2.49% to close at 157.50. Verizon Communications Inc rose 0.43 points or 1.18% to close at 37.00. The biggest losers were Home Depot Inc, which shed 6.03 points or 2.19% to end the session at 269.46. Caterpillar Inc was up 2.10% or 3.87 points to close at 180.54 while Nike Inc was down 1.96% or 1.74 points to end at 86.83. .  The S&P 500 results Leading gainers among the S&P 500 components in today's trading were Lam Research Corp, which rose 7.81% to 355.87, AT&T Inc, which gained 7.72% to close at 16.74, and shares of Quest Diagnostics Incorporated, which rose 6.32% to close the session at 134.66. The biggest losers were Allstate Corp, which shed 12.90% to close at 117.71. Shares of Union Pacific Corporation shed 6.80% to end the session at 186.45. Quotes of Tesla Inc decreased in price by 6.65% to 207.28. The components of the NASDAQ Composite  Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Nextplay Technologies Inc, which rose 107.31% to hit 0.41, Cabaletta Bio Inc, which gained 50.77% to close at 1.96, and also shares of Save Foods Inc, which rose 31.33% to end the session at 1.97. The biggest losers were Talaris Therapeutics Inc, which shed 43.39% to close at 1.37. Shares of LMF Acquisition Opportunities Inc shed 34.55% to end the session at 6.82. Quotes of Gaucho Group Holdings Inc decreased in price by 30.40% to 0.21. How many fall and rise On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2067) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1018), while quotes of 114 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2037 stocks fell, 1694 rose, and 240 remained at the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 2.54% to 29.98. Commodities Gold futures for December delivery lost 0.17%, or 2.85, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for December delivery rose 0.50%, or 0.42, to $84.94 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for December delivery rose 0.25%, or 0.23, to $92.64 a barrel. EUR/USD Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.12% to 0.98, while USD/JPY rallied 0.19% to hit 150.18. Futures on the USD index fell 0.07% to 112.81.   Relevance up to 05:00 2022-10-22 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/297723
UK PMIs Signal Economic Deceleration, Pound Edges Lower

Restricting China's Access To Advanced Technologies | Advertising Partners From Many Industries Are Reducing Their Marketing Budgets

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 21.10.2022 09:35
Summary:  With Fed officials keeping up their rate hike rhetoric, swaps are now pricing in a 5% peak rate in the first half of next year. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose 9 basis points to 4.23%, which weighed on equity valuation multiples. Snap earnings also send a warning on tech earnings ahead. UK PM Truss’ resignation would do little to help with the chaos in UK economy and politics. The dollar was mixed, oil was steady, gold retreated as bond-yields rose. What’s happening in markets? The Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) retreat as bond yields climb US stocks fell for the second day, after Treasury yields rose again, continuing to climb into territory not seen in more than a decade, with Fed officials keeping up their rate hike rhetoric. Swaps are now pricing in a 5% peak rate in the first half of next year. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose 9 basis points to 4.23%, at one point hitting 4.239%, its highest level since 2008. The policy-sensitive yield, the 2-year Treasury traded up five basis points to 4.608%. As such this makes high PE tech stocks look expensive, particularly as the Nasdaq only offers a yield of 0.97%, and the S&P500 has an average yield of 1.8%, and the Dow Jones with a yield of 2.2%, all at a time when US corporate earnings are falling for the first time this year. The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5% and the S&P 500 erased an earlier gain of more than 1%, before it ended 0.8% lower. Utilities down 2.5%, were the worst performing sector in the S&P 500. Communication Services outperformed, led by AT&T (T:xnys) which jumped 7.8% after the telecommunications giant reported earnings beating estimates and raising profit outlooks. 10-year U.S. treasury yields made a new 14-year high at 4.23% (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) U.S. treasuries sold off for a second day in a row, with the 2-year yield climbing 5bps to 4.615 and the 10-year yield 9bps higher at 4.23%, the highest levels in 14 years. Yields surged after the Philadelphia Fed President Harker said he was expecting the Fed Fund rate to be “well above 4% by the end of the year” and Fed Governor Cook said fighting inflation “will require ongoing rate hikes and then keeping policy restrictive for some time.” Hedging for new issues in the corporate space also contributed to the rise in yields. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIV2) China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hong Kong stocks tumbled with Hang Seng Index down 1.4% hitting 13-year lows. The bounce on the news of China shorting quarantine requirement for inbound travellers failed to hold. Higher U.S. bond yields and the Chinese Yuan weakening to new lows weighed on the markets. To add to the woes, investors have become increasingly concerned about the potential policy implications of the concept of “regulating the means of accumulating wealth” introduced in the Work Report delivered at the Chinese Communist Party’s National Congress last Sunday and the newswire report that the U.S. and Taiwan are in discussion of jointly manufacturing weapons. Chinese leading banks kept the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates unchanged. China Internet names sold off 3% to 8%. The EV space remained weak, with leading names falling by 2% to 6%. JD Health (06618:xhkg) rose 7.1% on share buyback news. Semiconductor stocks surged in Hong Kong and mainland bourses. Reportedly, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology summoned executives of microchip manufacturers to discuss the latest moves from the U.S. to contain China’s access to U.S. semiconductor technology and pledged support to the domestic semiconductor industry. In addition, mainland securities firms published reports saying that China’s domestic chip-making industry will benefit from the whole-nation systemic initiatives to develop strategic technologies proposed at the CCP’s National Congress. Semiconductor names surged both in Hong Kong and mainland bourses, with Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347:xhkg) rising 5.6%, SMIC (00981:xhkg) climbing 1.6%, and Naura Technology (002371:xsec) limit up 10%. CSI 300 gained 0.6%. Australia’s ASX200 (ASXSP200.1) falls 0.8% on Friday, losing 1.2% on the week. Focus is on Lithium and Coal company earnings, from Allkem to Whitehaven   The following companies reporting quarterly and revenue numbers are a focus today; with Australia’s second biggest lithium company, Allkem reporting (AKE) quarterly production that missed expectations, seeing its shares decline almost 4%. Investors focused on the mining giants guidance for the year ahead with Allkem noting it expects lithium carbonate prices to be higher by 15% this quarter, than the last. Meanwhile, it reported lower grades, flagged issues including logistics delays in South America and on-going labour and equipment shortages in Western Australia. As a result, production at its South American Olaroz Stage 2 project is now delayed and planned for Q2 CY23. In good news though for Australia’s second biggest lithium company, Allkem, its net cash rose to $447 million (as at Sept. 30, up from $28.9 million from June 30). In Coal news Whitehaven Coal (WHC) shares rocked 3.2% higher after 16.6 million in block trades pushed its shares up, with the block of trades equating to 2.1% of its float. Also in Coal news, Coronado Global (CRN) results are set to be released and pulled apart, with the coal price in record high neighborhood, despite falling 13% from its high. It will be interesting to glean into their outlook for the year, particularly as coal demand usually peaks in January. For Coronado, focus will also be on the potential merger with Peabody. Other companies to watch include, wealth and financial planning business, AMP (AMP) with focus to be on how they can return $1.1b capital to investors in FY23. And in industrials, eyes will be on rubbish business, Cleanaway (CWY), who is holding its Annual Meeting. Traders will be looking to see if Cleanaway changes its earnings (Underlying Ebitda) forecast that’s pegged to be between A$630m to A$670m. USDJPY breaks 150, next to watch is 153 USDJPY finally broke above the key 150 level yesterday, the level above which many expected intervention. Officials have been jawboning the pair, including FinMin Suzuki this morning saying that they continue to watch the markets with a sense of urgency. He also seemed cautioned by the rattle in the UK markets, as suggested by his comments that they will pursue fiscal health so that market trust isn’t lost. BOJ meeting next week is key, although a change in policy stance cannot be expected. The break of 150 now exposes 153 levels in USDJPY. Crude oil (CLX2 & LCOZ2) Gains in crude oil on the back of expectations of China easing inbound tourism policy restrictions, but gains were later reversed with focus still on US efforts to curb price increase in energy. While the 15mbbl of release announced by President Biden is a part of the larger 180mbbl release that commenced earlier this year, focus is also on how the US strategic reserves will be refilled. WTI futures were seen back below $85/barrel while Brent was close to $92.   What to consider? What could the new UK PM bring in terms of policy change? After significant economic and political turmoil, Liz Truss resigned as Britain’s prime minister after just 44 days in office. The easy choice remains Rishi Sunak, former chancellor, who stood against Truss for the Tory leadership in the summer and predicted correctly that his rival would set off panic in the markets if she pressed ahead with a massive package of debt-funded tax cuts. The other alternative being ex-PM Boris Johnson or Penny Mordaunt, who also stood for the Tory leadership in the summer. Fiscal policy is unlikely top see a major shift with the new PM, as UK administration now remains extremely sensitive to market events. There is little they can do to prevent the upcoming recession or bring back asset allocation to UK assets. Market Fed rate expectations reach 5% Early 2023 Fed rate expectations have now reached over 5%, with the Fed funds rate now fully pricing in a 75bps rate hike for the November meeting and a strong probability of another 75bps rate hike at the December meeting. While the Fed has reiterated it will continue to hike more next year before it pauses, but the market pricing is now running higher than what the dot plot has hinted earlier. So the room for the Fed to surprise on the hawkish side in diminishing, especially if core inflation continues to surprise on the upside. Fed speakers are starting to turn slightly cautious looking at the market pricing, with Charles Evans last night saying that if the Fed pushes its policy rate much further than planned it could start to weigh on the economy and says he is worried that at some point rate increases could have a non-linear impact with businesses becoming more pessimistic. Harker (2023 voter) and Cook reasserted that the Fed needs to continue to hike but will noted that the Fed can pause sometime next year to assess the impact of its tightening on the economy. Another fall in weekly jobless claims for the Oct 15 week continued to suggest labor market strength despite the disruptions from recent hurricanes. China is considering reducing inbound quarantine Reportedly, the Chinese authorities are considering to reduce the current 7 days in hotel plus 3 days at home quarantine requirement for people travelling into China to 2 days in hotel plus 5 days at home. While the move may be small in magnitude, and still not confirmed by the authorities, it may have signaling power in terms of more flexbility in the day-to-day implementation of the zero Covid policy which is constraining consumption, investment and tourism. . US to expand China tech ban Bloomberg reports, citing “people familiar with the situation”, that the Biden administration is considering, at an early stage, new export bans limiting China’s access to advanced computing technologies that can be used in quantum computing and artificial intelligent software. Cyber security attacks on the rise globally, US Home Secretary warns to expect more in Asia A US official has warned that aggressive cyberattacks will rise from Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, particularly against Asian countries. It comes after a very strong spate of cyberattacks occurred globally this month, from Microsoft’s data being breached, along with the Japanese Securities Dealer Association, Australia’s Taxation Office batting three attempts per month, to the Indianapolis Housing Agency’s systems being breached as well, as well as one of Australasia’s telcos, and an ASX listed insurance group, Medibank. This reflects the need for companies and organizations to ramp up cybersecurity spending now and on an ongoing basis. This brings to mind perhaps the importance of remembering the need for diversification and possibly considering exposure to Cybersecurity stocks and ETFs. For more information, refer to our cybersecurity basket. Japan inflation hits 3%, update to CPI forecasts expected next week Japan’s core inflation touched 3% levels for the first time in over 30 years, matching expectations. Headline inflation came in higher-than-expected at 3.0% y/y while core-core ex fresh food and energy) measure was up at 1.8% y/y from 1.6% y/y previously. The stark yen weakness can prompt further import price pressures in Q4 as well, and demand is likely to push higher as well with Japan reopening its borders from the pandemic restrictions. Bank of Japan meets next week, and while policy change is hard to expect, it is expected that the central bank will raise the CPI forecast for fiscal 2022 (year ending March) from 2.3% to high-2% range. Snap earnings send tech earnings fear soaring Snap (SNAP:xnys) plunged 26.5% in the after-hour trading, following the company reported Q3 revenues growth at 6% Y/Y, largely in line with street estimates, but said its internal forecast for the Q4 revenues growth is decelerating to about flat year on year (vs market expectations of +6% Y/Y). The social media company said that they are finding “advertising partners across many industries are decreasing their marketing budgets, especially in the face of operating environment headwinds, inflation-driven pressures, and rising costs of capital.”   For our look ahead at markets this week - Listen/watch our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast. Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/market-insights-today-21-oct-21102022
Liz Truss The Shortest Prime Minister In The History Of The Great Britain | Crude Oil Is Growing

Liz Truss The Shortest Prime Minister In The History Of The Great Britain | Crude Oil Is Growing

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 21.10.2022 09:46
Summary:  Equity markets feebly attempted another rally yesterday, but the headwinds of seemingly ever-rising yields proved too strong, sending the indices sharply back lower to the lowest close in three days. This is still a relatively firm performance, given the scale of the rise in yields. Elsewhere, the USDJPY 150.00 level only proved a barrier for about a day, as the weight of rising yields saw the price action spilling higher above this level, with no signs yet of fresh official intervention against JPY weakness.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) Yesterday saw a session relatively like the prior one, as an early rally simply failed to find sustenance in the face of the ongoing grind higher in US treasury yields. Still, market sentiment seems remarkably quiet despite the strong headwinds of the 25-basis point jump in longer Treasury yields this week. Next week is an important one for equities as the earnings season hits its peak with most of the megacap companies in the US reporting earnings, with the price action currently buried in the middle of the two-week range ahead of today’s session. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIV2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hang Seng Index and CSI300 fluctuated in a narrow range and were down modestly. In Hong Kong, Chinese developers and China Internet stocks bounced. In mainland bourses, solar, wind power, education, nuclear power, and properties outperformed. General market sentiment is weak as U.S. bond yield risen to new highs and investors pondering the policy implications from the Chinese Communist Party’s National Congress. USD finds stride again on higher Treasury yields, USDJPY spilling above 150.00 The US dollar behaved rather oddly in recent sessions in trading sideways even as US treasuries continue to provide strong support for the currency. Hesitation yesterday from USD bulls may have been on concern that official intervention and choppy price action across USD pairs might await if USDJPY attempted to trade above the psychological 150.00 level. But that level fell late yesterday without any real fuss, trading nearly to 150.50. Still, while USDJPY moves are heavily correlated with the fresh rise in US Treasury yields, it’s interesting that another 50 basis point jump in long US treasury yields to new 14-year highs has not seen new cycle lows in EURUSD and many other USD pairs. Crude oil (CLZ2 & LCOZ2) Crude oil is among just a handful of commodities trading higher in a week that has seen another sharp jump in US bond yields drive down growth expectations. Crude and its related fuel products however continue to be supported by the risk of tightness driven by a period of supply uncertainty in the coming months as OPEC+ cuts supply, and the EU implements sanctions on Russian oil. In addition, uncertainty over Chinese demand as the zero Covid tolerance is being maintained and further incremental SPR sales of 15 million barrels will continue to weigh on prices in the short term. All developments, however, that are likely to keep crude oil rangebound for now, with Brent finding support below $90. Focus next week being earnings from six Big Oil companies, led by Exxon, Chevron and Shell. Gold (XAUUSD) Gold trades down 1.5% on the week close to key support at $1617, the September low and 50% retracement of the 2018 to 2022 rally. A second week of weakness being driven by an across the curve surge in US treasury yields with the ten-year yield rising 23 basis points on the week to 4.25%. Hawkish Fed comments and no signs of economic data showing the much-needed slowdown, has seen the market price in a Fed funds rate above 5% by early next year. The exodus from bullion backed ETFs has gathered pace this week as investors instead focus on increasingly attractive bond market yields, not least the two-year yield at 4.6% yield. Gold will likely continue to struggle until we reach peak hawkishness and/or the dollar starts to weaken. US treasuries (TLT, IEF) US treasury yields lifted all along the curve again yesterday, posting new highs for the cycle, with rises at the long end outpacing those at the short end, with the 2-10 inversion up to –37 basis points versus the cycle low below –50 bps in Sep and earlier this month. Traders are perhaps awaiting incoming data before trading shorter yields, now that the market has priced the Fed funds rate to reach above 5.00% by early next year (priced to do so at the March 2023 FOMC meeting). What is going on? UK Prime Minister Liz Truss resigned in a short statement yesterday … becoming the shortest serving Prime Minister in Britain’s history. She will stay in power until a new leader of the Conservative party can be chosen. The leading candidate is former Chancellor Rishi Sunak and other top contenders include Boris Johnson as the Conservative party has fallen to a record low in the polls against Labour. Japan inflation hits 3%, update to CPI forecasts expected next week Japan’s core inflation touched 3% levels for the first time in over 30 years, matching expectations. Headline inflation came in higher-than-expected at 3.0% y/y while core-core ex fresh food and energy) measure was up at 1.8% y/y from 1.6% y/y previously. The stark yen weakness can prompt further import price pressures in Q4 as well, and demand is likely to push higher as well with Japan reopening its borders from the pandemic restrictions. Bank of Japan meets next week, and while policy change is hard to expect, it is expected that the central bank will raise the CPI forecast for fiscal 2022 (year ending March) from 2.3% to high-2% range. UK Retail Sales volumes slide badly again in September Real (volume-based) sales were down for a second consecutive month at –1.4% MoM and –6.9% YoY, with the ex Petrol sales at –1.5% MoM and –6.2% YoY. China is considering reducing inbound quarantine The Chinese authorities are considering reducing the current 7 days in hotel plus 3 days at home quarantine requirement for people travelling into China to 2 days in hotel plus 5 days at home. While the move may be small in magnitude, and still not confirmed by the authorities, it may have signaling power in terms of more flexibility in the day-to-day implementation of the zero Covid policy which is constraining consumption, investment and tourism.Snap earnings send tech earnings fear soaringSnap (SNAP:xnys) plunged 26.5% in the after-hour trading, following the company reported Q3 revenues growth at 6% Y/Y, largely in line with street estimates, but said its internal forecast for the Q4 revenues growth is decelerating to about flat year on year (vs market expectations of +6% Y/Y). The social media company said that they are finding “advertising partners across many industries are decreasing their marketing budgets, especially in the face of operating environment headwinds, inflation-driven pressures, and rising costs of capital.” Gas prices in Europe and US see steep weekly declines US natural gas futures are heading for their longest stretch of weekly declines since 1991 as stockpiles continue to build at a faster than expected pace ahead of winter. The November (NGX2) front month contract trades down by 18% on the week and down 44% since the August peak, driven by mild autumn weather and rising production. In addition, the Freeport LNG export terminal explosion on June 8 has reduced exports, and the terminal will open in November at 85% capacity. In Europe, the TTF price trades down 10% has bounced strongly after almost reaching €100/MWh earlier in the week, a level we do not expect to be challenged until later in the winter when demand becomes more visible. With prices falling and almost full inventories, the political resolve to introduce a price cap has faded, hence the bounce. What are we watching next? US is considering national security reviews of Elon Musk business activities ... according to unnamed sources in a Bloomberg story. These would include the acquisition of Twitter and SpaceX’s Starlink satellite network. Musk has expressed his view on the war in Ukraine and investors in his Twitter takeover include Saudi and Chinese individuals. Tesla also has a strong presence in China, an awkward situation as the US has moved recently to cut off China’s access to advanced semiconductor tech. Market Fed rate expectations reach 5%, can they continue to rise? Early 2023 Fed rate expectations have now reached over 5%, with the Fed funds rate now fully pricing in a 75bps rate hike for the November meeting and a strong probability of another 75bps rate hike at the December meeting. While the Fed has reiterated it will continue to hike more next year before it pauses, market pricing is now running higher than the September FOMC dot plot forecasts. Some Fed speakers are starting to turn slightly cautious looking at the market pricing, with Charles Evans last night saying that if the Fed pushes its policy rate much further than planned it could start to weigh on the economy and says he is worried that at some point rate increases could have a non-linear impact with businesses becoming more pessimistic. Harker (2023 voter) and Cook reasserted that the Fed needs to continue to hike but will noted that the Fed can pause sometime next year to assess the impact of its tightening on the economy. Another fall in weekly jobless claims for the Oct 15 week continued to suggest labor market strength despite the disruptions from recent hurricanes. Earnings to watch Today’s earnings included the report from the world’s largest battery market CATL overnight, with a focus in the US session on consumer demand and consumption patterns in today’s American Express earnings report as well as the largest US oilfield services company Schlumberger. Today: CATL, American Express, Schlumberger, Verizon Communications, HCA Healthcare, Sika Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 1230 – Canada Aug. Retail Sales 1340 – US Fed’s Evans to speak 1400 – Euro Zone Oct. Consumer Confidence Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-oct-21-2022-21102022
Unlocking the Future: Key UK Wage Data and September BoE Rate Hike Prospects

The Positive Close On The New York Stock Exchange, The Dow Jones Hit A Monthly High

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 24.10.2022 08:00
At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 2.47% to hit a monthly high, the S&P 500 rose 2.37% and the NASDAQ Composite rose 2.31%. Dow Jones index  Caterpillar Inc was the top performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 10.88 points or 6.07% to close at 190.22. JPMorgan Chase & Co rose 6.10 points or 5.25% to close at 122.23. Goldman Sachs Group Inc rose 14.29 points or 4.60% to close at 325.10. The losers were shares of Verizon Communications Inc, which shed 1.65 points or 4.46% to end the session at 35.35. American Express Company rose 1.67% or 2.38 points to close at 140.04, while Procter & Gamble Company rose 1.25% or 1.59 points to close at 128.58. S&P 500 Leading gainers among the components of the S&P 500 in today's trading were Schlumberger NV, which rose 10.33% to 50.41, Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc, which gained 9.99% to close at 32. 03, as well as Huntington Bancshares Incorporated, which rose 9.47% to end the session at 14.45. The drop leaders were SVB Financial Group shares, which lost 23.95% to close at 230.03. Shares of Robert Half International Inc lost 8.55% and ended the session at 73.01. Quotes of HCA Holdings Inc decreased in price by 5.69% to 196.74. NASDAQ  Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Huadi International Group Co Ltd, which rose 89.27% to hit 58.92, Altamira Therapeutics Ltd, which gained 58.64% to close at 0.52 , as well as shares of Missfresh Ltd ADR, which rose by 57.50%, ending the session at around 2.52. The drop leaders were shares of Immunic Inc, which fell 77.39% to close at 2.08. Shares of Nextplay Technologies Inc lost 33.23% and ended the session at 0.28. Quotes of Kalera PLC decreased in price by 35.61% to 0.28. The number  On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (2282) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (835), while quotes of 104 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2503 companies rose in price, 1265 fell, and 238 remained at the level of the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 0.97% to 29.69. Gold Gold futures for December delivery added 1.40%, or 22.95, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for December delivery rose 0.73%, or 0.62, to $85.13 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for December delivery rose 1.24%, or 1.15, to $93.53 a barrel. Forex Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD rose 0.80% to hit 0.99, while USD/JPY shed 1.75% to hit 147.51. Futures on the USD index fell 0.90% to 111.80.     Relevance up to 04:00 2022-10-25 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/297940
Kiwi Faces Depreciation Pressure: RBNZ Expected to Hold Rates Amidst Downward Momentum

Bank Of Canada (BoC) And ECB Interest Rate Expectations | Redundancies Of 4,000 Employees At Philips

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 24.10.2022 12:51
Summary:  Equities snapped back higher Friday to close the week on a positive note and near the highs for the week, perhaps as the persistent rise in US treasury yields finally reversed sharply intraday on Friday after posting new cycle highs. The positive mood carried over into the early Asian session overnight as yields fell further, but sentiment has soured again slightly ahead of the open of the European session today. The Japanese yen weakened after Friday’s wild rally from new multi-decade lows, a move that was likely intervention-driven. The week ahead will feature earnings reports from the largest US megacaps.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) Strong equity session on Friday with S&P 500 futures closing at a weekly high and this morning the index futures briefly pushed above the 3,800 level which is quite startling given the price action out of China. Many of the large US companies have considerable revenue exposure to China, so there is a downside risk here to US companies as the increasing political risk premium on Chinese equities could impact valuation on US companies with large Chinse exposure. The falling US 10-year yield likely driven by safe-haven seeking flows is offsetting at the margin some of the headwinds for US equities, but the medium-term outlook remains negative. It is also a massive earnings season week in the US with most of the mega caps reporting earnings, so volatility could easily pick up during the week in the event that these earnings surprise to the downside. Hang Seng (HK50.I) In light of the events over the weekend in China with Xi Jinping drawing up a new leadership in China (see more in-depth analysis below), the Hang Seng Index is selling off 6.4% to price levels seen as far back as 2005; in the total return basis is not quite as bad. The equity valuation on Hang Seng Index has fallen to less than 8 on 12-month forward P/E ratio suggesting that a steep political risk premium is being built into Chinese equities. Chinese mainland shares are down 3.2% during the session likely reflecting the divergence in foreign ownership. Wild ride for JPY traders Friday, likely on intervention The yen spiked further to the downside as global bond yields continued to rise Friday, with USDJPY nearly reaching 152.00 before what may have been a powerful intervention from official Japanese sources took USDJPY as far south as sub-146.50 levels on Friday as bonds also found support. Japan’s finance minister Shunichi Suzuki said that the country is in a showdown speculators and can’t tolerate “excessive” moves in the JPY. The action has sprung back overnight, taking USDJPY back to the 149.00 area in early European trading today. Other USD pairs have moved in sympathy with the wild volatility in JPY, with sudden USD weakness late Friday following through in places overnight but reversing later in the session. Elsewhere in FX, sterling is bid on hopes of an orderly transition to a new prime minister, most likely Rishi Sunak. Crude oil (CLZ2 & LCOZ2) Crude oil has given back some of Friday’s weaker-dollar-driven gains as fears over the global economic outlook continues to offset OPEC+ production cuts and EU sanctions on Russian oil flows from early December. A batch of delayed economic data out of China and President Xi tightening his grip on the country also helped sour sentiment at the start of a new week. Overall, however, the oil market judging from the bullish curve structure remains tight signalling no easy path for those looking for lower prices. Focus this week on earnings from Exxon, Shell and their Big Oil peers. HG Copper trades near resistance in the $3.5lb area ... following an end of week rally that was triggered by a weaker dollar and softer yields (see below). A batch of data released by China overnight saw copper imports reach their second highest level this year and despite the current property market crisis, the metal is seeing rising demand in order to replenish low stock levels and from clean energy production which is taking hold even as China’s broader demand for commodities have seen a slowdown due to lower economic activity. Speculators have traded copper from the short side since April, and a break above $3.70 is likely to be the minimum requirement for that to change. Gold (XAUUSD) Gold reached $1670 overnight as Friday's rally extended into the Monday session, and apart from speculation about the timing of a peak-and-reversal in US treasury yields, it is the current wild ride in USDJPY that has got the algo’s going wild in both directions. While we maintain our long-term bullish view on gold and silver, the price action has yet to confirm a reversal. This despite the second failed attempt last week to break lower through key support at $1617. The exodus from bullion backed ETFs has gathered pace recently as investors instead focus on increasingly attractive bond market yields. Gold will likely continue to trade in a choppy fashion until we reach peak hawkishness and/or the dollar starts to weaken. US treasuries (TLT, IEF) US treasury yields spiked further on Friday, with the 10-year treasury yield benchmark posting a remarkable 4.33% before treasuries finally found strong support, closing the day slightly below the prior day’s close of 4.22% and following through to 4.16% in early European trading today. Could this prove a climax peak-and-reversal in yields? We would need to see the yield work back down below 4.00% for a stronger indication. Noted “Fed whisperer” Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal penned an article at the weekend suggesting that the Fed is preparing for a downshift in the pace of rate hikes by early next year (more below). US 2-year yields are also sharply lower from the Friday highs, having fallen some 20 basis points and trading near 4.43% this morning. What is going on? China’s Communist Party’s new leadership China’s General Secretary Xi lined up a team who deeply share his vision of the future of China and the blueprint of the governance model and development strategies that he had established to replace four of the seven members of the Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo Standing Committee, including Li Keqiang, Premier. The strategies of common prosperity, high-quality development, dual circulation, technology self-reliance, strengthening governance within the CCP, and deepening CCP’s leadership over all aspects of the country will continue. WSJ’s Nick Timiraos suggests the Fed is eyeing a slowdown in its pace of tightening Timiraos is widely considered to have solid access to Fed sources and in a piece released this Saturday, affirms the market view that the Fed may begin to downshift from the 75-basis point hike pace, perhaps already after the November meeting and eventually pause the tightening regime at some point early next year to offer time to assess the impact of the rapid pace of rate hikes, which took the Fed Funds rate from 0-0.25% as late as March of this year to a projected 4.25-4.50% after the December meeting. But he also notes the variety of opinions among Fed officials, some of whom are in favour of carrying on with the current pace of tightening and not wanting to signal any change in resolve as long as inflation persists anywhere near current levels. Philips in urgent restructuring laying off 4,000 employees The Dutch industrial conglomerate has been a mess for years and this morning the company is reporting revenue and EBITDA in line with estimates, but announcing a big restructuring of the company laying off 4,000 employees to improve profitability ahead of what the company expects to be more challenging times. What are we watching next? Former UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak may become next UK Prime Minister today Former PM Boris Johnson announced at the weekend that he will not run for leadership of the conservative party. The deadline to announce support from at least 100 Tory lawmakers is today at 14:00 UK time, with the only challenger to Sunak’s bid Penny Mordaunt, who may not have sufficient votes. Sunak has over 100 backers and will automatically become the next Prime Minister if Mordaunt can’t muster sufficient support for a run-off. Bank of Canada and ECB set to hike by 75 basis points this week On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to hike interest rates by as much as 75 basis points, taking the policy rate to 4.00% if they do so, after a hotter than expected CPI print in September for Canada. On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) will also further tighten its monetary policy to fight against widespread and persistent inflation. We think that the ECB will have no other choice but to send a hawkish message to the markets (meaning a 75-basis point interest rate hike) and signal further hikes to come, at least until February 2023. It is likely that the central bank will downshift interest rate hikes in December 2022 and in February 2023 to take into consideration the ongoing economic slowdown (which may end up in a recession). At this week’s meeting, the ECB governing council will also discuss two other matters: 1) Quantitative tightening and when/how it should start. But a final decision is not expected until December; 2) commercial banks’ early repayment of TLTRO (for Targeted Longer-term Refinancing Operations to provide financing at very low rates to credit institutions). Those two points are unlikely to be major market movers. Further pressure on Japan’s yield curve control? Last week, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) was forced to start emergency bond buying operations to maintain its yield curve control (YCC) policy. Pressure could remain high this week again. Several factors are pushing yields higher in Japan: highest inflation print since 1991, calls for very large wage increases and the continued upward migration in global yields, of course. Earnings to watch Around 430 earnings releases expected this week in the earnings universe that we cover during earnings seasons. Out of those more than 400 earnings releases, the most important ones are highlighted below. By the end of this week, we will have an adequate view into revenue growth, operating margin, and earnings growth on a both q/q and y/y basis. Today: Nidec, Philips, Cadence Design Systems Tuesday: First Quantum Minerals, Canadian National Railway, DSV, UPM-Kymmene, SAP, HSBC, ASM International, Norsk Hydro, Novartis, UBS, Kuhne + Nagel, Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, Coca-Cola, Texas Instruments, UPS, Raytheon Technologies, General Electric, 3M, General Motors, Valero Energy, Biogen, Enphase Energy, Halliburton, Spotify Technology Wednesday: Dassault Systemes, Mercedes-Benz, BASF, Deutsche Bank, PingAn Insurance, CGN Power, UniCredit, Canon, Barclays, Standard Chartered, Heineken, Aker BP, Iberdrola, Banco Santander, SEB, Meta Platforms, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Bristol-Myers Squibb, ADP, Boeing, ServiceNow, Ford Motor, Twitter Thursday: ANZ, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Argenx, Shopify, Teck Resources, Neste, Kone, TotalEnergies, EDF, STMicroelectronics, PetroChina, China Life Insurance, CNOOC, Oriental Land, Shin-Etsu Chemical, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, Hoya, FANUC, Shell, Lloyds Banking Group, Universal Music Group, Repsol, Ferrovial, Hexagon, Evolution, Credit Suisse, Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, Merck & Co, McDonald’s, Linde, Intel, Honeywell, Caterpillar, Gilead Sciences, Pioneer Natural Resources Friday: Macquarie Group, OMV, ICBC, China Merchants Bank, LONGi Green Energy Technology, Midea Group, Imperial Oil, Danske Bank, Sanofi, Airbus, Volkswagen, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, BYD, China Shenhua Energy, Eni, Keyence, Hitachi, Denso, Equinor, CaixaBank, Wilmar International, Swiss Re, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, AbbVie, NextEra Energy, Colgate-Palmolive, Royal Caribbean Cruises Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0715-0800 – Eurozone Oct. Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI 0830 – UK Oct. Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI 1230 – US Sep. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 1345 – US Oct. Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-oct-24-2022-24102022
At The Close On The New York Stock Exchange Indices Closed Mixed

On The NASDAQ Stock Exchange, 1925 Companies Rose

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 25.10.2022 08:08
At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 1.34% to a one-month high, the S&P 500 was up 1.19% and the NASDAQ Composite was up 0.86%. The Dow Jones index Amgen Inc was the top performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 9.38 points or 3.72% to close at 261.32. Quotes Coca-Cola Co rose by 1.61 points (2.88%), ending trading at 57.57. Home Depot Inc rose 7.73 points or 2.81% to close at 283.26. The least gainers were Nike Inc, which lost 0.49 points or 0.55% to end the session at 88.01. The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) was up 0.32 points or 0.31% to close at 101.72, while Chevron Corp was down 0.06 points or 0.03% to end the trading at 173.13. The S&P 500 index  Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were HCA Holdings Inc, which rose 7.02% to hit 210.47, Tractor Supply Company, which gained 5.30% to close at 207.83, and also shares of Regions Financial Corporation, which rose 5.28% to close the session at 20.55. The least gainers were Las Vegas Sands Corp, which shed 10.29% to close at 35.05. Shares of Starbucks Corporation shed 5.47% to end the session at 83.76. Quotes of Wynn Resorts Limited decreased in price by 3.86% to 56.53. The NASDAQ  Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Applied Genetic, which rose 62.43% to hit 0.39, Vaxcyte Inc (NASDAQ:PCVX), which gained 60.35% to close at 33. 00, as well as shares of Mullen Automotive Inc, which rose 32.94% to close the session at 0.50. The least gainers were Tricida Inc, which shed 94.48% to close at 0.60. Shares of Alfi Inc lost 54.32% and ended the session at 0.11. Quotes of Huadi International Group Co Ltd decreased in price by 43.99% to 33.00. The numbers On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (1,751) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (1,344), while quotes of 124 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 1925 companies rose in price, 1828 fell, and 253 remained at the level of the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 0.54% to 29.85. Gold Gold futures for December delivery lost 0.15%, or 2.55, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude futures for December delivery fell 0.26%, or 0.22, to $84.83 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for January delivery rose 0.13%, or 0.12, to $91.46 a barrel. FX Market Meanwhile, in the forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.14% to 0.99, while USD/JPY edged up 0.98% to hit 149.09. Futures on the USD index fell 0.04% to 111.93.     Relevance up to 05:00 2022-10-26 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/298126
Rates and Cycles: Central Banks' Strategies in Focus Amid Steepening Impulses

The Upward Movement Of US Treasuries Was Halted | Allegations Of Systematic Maltreatment Of Patients Against Orpea

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 25.10.2022 08:46
Summary:  Equity markets managed a comeback from an intraday sell-off yesterday as treasury yields eased back lower after briefly threatening to challenge the cycle highs. Today is the first day of the blitz of earnings releases this week and will include Microsoft and Google-parent Alphabet reporting after the close of trading today. In Asia, even while the US dollar treads water, the Chinese yuan slipped to a new cycle low versus the greenback after a weak official fixing.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) US equities are continuing to climb ahead of key earnings tonight with S&P 500 futures trading around the 3,811 level this morning and potentially could reach for the 50-day moving average around the 3,876 level if we get better than expected Q3 earnings over the coming days. Euro STOXX 50 (EU50.I) Momentum is extending this morning with STOXX 50 futures trading around the 3,542 level with yesterday’s high at the 3,551 level being the key resistance level on the upside. The key drivers are lower energy prices caused by recently very mild weather in Europe. If flows into EUR continues, European Q3 earnings surprises, and energy prices remain in easing stance then the 3,600 level could be the next big level to be tested. FX: USD treads water, CNH continues broad plunge The continued local softness in US yields and resilient risk sentiment here have kept the US dollar trading sideways and kept USDJPY out of the headlines. But USDCNH extended sharply higher after a surprising weak fix for the onshore CNY last night, and USDCNH spiked all the way to 7.368 before the move was cut about in half by later in the session. China is clearly happy to allow the CNH to weaken broadly, with EURCNH, for example, rallying hard since earlier this month and trading near the range high of the last year close to 7.30. Crude oil (CLZ2 & LCOZ2) Crude oil has settled into a relatively tight range, in Brent between $90 and $95 per barrel, while the market assesses the overall impact on demand from the global economic slowdown against a tight supply situation, especially in the distillate market, which is likely to worsen once OPEC producers in the Middle East reduce production of high yielding middle distillate crude oil from next month. In addition, EU sanctions against Russia starting in December is already having an impact on supplies reaching the region. Overall, the oil market judging from the bullish curve structure remains tight and may tighten even further during the coming months. Focus this week on earnings from Exxon, Shell and their Big Oil peers. US treasuries (TLT, IEF) US treasury yields threatened back higher toward the cycle highs yesterday, but the move was tamed as treasuries found support. The 10-year yield has been almost unchanged on a daily close basis for the last three days running (near 4.22%). The circulation of an article from “Fed whisperer” Nick Timiraos suggesting that the Fed will consider slowing the pace of hikes after the November 2 FOMC meeting saw no follow-on drop in short yields. The treasury will auction 2-year t-notes today, 5-year notes tomorrow and 7-year notes on Thursday. What is going on? EU gas (TTFMX2) traded below €100/MWh on Monday for the first time since June with the “Next hour” contract briefly trading negative following a warm start to the heating season, a development that looks set to continue in the next couple of weeks, thereby leaving storage sites near full. While a great deal of weather-related volatility, and potentially even lower prices, can be expected at the front of the curve, it is important to watch TTFMG3, the peak winter demand contract for February, which remains anchored above €140/MWh. However, the longer the warm spell continues, and LNG arrivals remain strong the worry about next winter will fade, thereby providing a much-needed boost to industries trying to navigate through the current crisis. EU energy ministers meet today to discuss the emergency actions proposed by the Commision last week. Ugly flash Eurozone PMI for October There is nothing new here. As expected, activity weakened more quickly in October. The eurozone October business activity is down at 47.1 versus prior 48.1 and expected at 47.6. It looks increasingly clear that the Eurozone economy is set to contract in the fourth quarter. The factors driving the contraction in activity are well-known: fears of a recession, widespread and higher inflation (especially in the services sector), worries about high inventories, weaker than expected sales etc. We all know the next step: companies will start to cut costs, reduce their employment expectations for 2023 and ultimately cut their labor force. All of this even before we enter winter. This is a high-risk period for the Eurozone due to the energy crisis and potential energy disruptions in some countries. DSV lifts outlook Europe’s largest logistics company is raising its EBIT outlook this morning as Q3 results are better than estimated with revenue at DKK 60.6bn vs est. DKK 56.3bn and adjusted net income of DKK 4.8bn vs est. DKK 4.7bn. The company also says that it expects a gradual decline in profitability as logistics prices are coming down from their high prices reached during pandemic bottlenecks in the global supply chain. SAP beats on revenue in Q3 Europe’s largest software company reports Q3 revenue of €7.8bn vs €7.6bn driven by strong performance in its cloud business. HSBC Q3 results beat estimates The bank reports this morning Q3 adjusted revenue of $14.3bn vs est. $13.5bn and adjusted pre-tax profits of $6.5bn vs est. $6.1bn. The bank is also lifting its outlook and announcing the replacement of its CFO. What are we watching next? Orpea could get a bailout by the French government The French retirement home group Orpea is facing a rough time since allegations of systematic mistreatment and patient abuse were discovered earlier this year. Yesterday, the stock was suspended by the French regulator AMF on rumors that the French government could step in to save the company. The stock is down 80 % year-to-date. Orpea is facing a mountain of debt (around €9.5bn). The group operates nearly 1,200 homes worldwide, with around 350 of them in France. It used to be one of the best performing stocks in the French stock market. Rishi Sunak set to become next UK Prime Minister, October 31 budget statement on tap Sunak is said to be keeping Jeremy Hunt on as Chancellor and is expected to proceed with prudence in keeping the UK’s fiscal deficits on a more sustainable path, with the austerity likely to mean a harder landing for the UK economy and the Bank of England possibly unwilling to hike interest rates as much as the market expects (or forced to do so because inflation remains stubborn and the currency weak). EURGBP jumped back higher toward 0.8750 yesterday after selling off on the news that Boris Johnson would not run for the leadership. Earnings to watch Today’s US earnings focus is on Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, UPS, General Electric, Halliburton, and Enphase Energy. Microsoft’s business model is robust due to its large market share and dependency for its software, but the company is facing rising input costs on wages and energy cost for running its datacenters. Alphabet could post Q3 weakness as Snap’s Q3 results last week showed advertising weakness. UPS earnings are important for insights into the global economic slowdown. Today: First Quantum Minerals, Canadian National Railway, DSV, UPM-Kymmene, SAP, HSBC, ASM International, Norsk Hydro, Novartis, UBS, Kuhne + Nagel, Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, Coca-Cola, Texas Instruments, UPS, Raytheon Technologies, General Electric, 3M, General Motors, Valero Energy, Biogen, Enphase Energy, Halliburton, Spotify Technology Wednesday: Dassault Systemes, Mercedes-Benz, BASF, Deutsche Bank, PingAn Insurance, CGN Power, UniCredit, Canon, Barclays, Standard Chartered, Heineken, Aker BP, Iberdrola, Banco Santander, SEB, Meta Platforms, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Bristol-Myers Squibb, ADP, Boeing, ServiceNow, Ford Motor, Twitter Thursday: ANZ, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Argenx, Shopify, Teck Resources, Neste, Kone, TotalEnergies, EDF, STMicroelectronics, PetroChina, China Life Insurance, CNOOC, Oriental Land, Shin-Etsu Chemical, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, Hoya, FANUC, Shell, Lloyds Banking Group, Universal Music Group, Repsol, Ferrovial, Hexagon, Evolution, Credit Suisse, Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, Merck & Co, McDonald’s, Linde, Intel, Honeywell, Caterpillar, Gilead Sciences, Pioneer Natural Resources Friday: Macquarie Group, OMV, ICBC, China Merchants Bank, LONGi Green Energy Technology, Midea Group, Imperial Oil, Danske Bank, Sanofi, Airbus, Volkswagen, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, BYD, China Shenhua Energy, Eni, Keyence, Hitachi, Denso, Equinor, CaixaBank, Wilmar International, Swiss Re, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, AbbVie, NextEra Energy, Colgate-Palmolive, Royal Caribbean Cruises Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0800 – Germany Oct. IFO Business Climate survey 0855 – UK Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill to speak 1200 – Hungary Central Bank Decision 1300 – US Aug. S&P CoreLogic Home Price Index 1400 – US Oct. Consumer Confidence 1400 – US Oct. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 1700 – US Treasury to auction 2-year notes 1755 – US Fed’s Waller (Voter) to speak 2030 – API Weekly Oil and Fuel Stocks Report 0000 – New Zealand Oct. ANZ Business Confidence 0030 – Australia Q3 and Sep. CPI Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher     Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-oct-25-2022-25102022
Bank Of England Will Probably Be Unable To Avoid A Significant Easing Of Policy

British Sovereign Bonds | Tech Giants Will Announce Earnings (Google And Microsoft)

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 25.10.2022 11:59
After both Boris Johnson and Penny Mordaunt pulled out of the British PM race, Rushi Sunak cried victory on Monday afternoon, and markets cried ‘Ready for Rishi’. The new UK Prime Minister The British sovereign bonds posted one of the biggest gains on record, the 10-year gilt yield tanked 8.50%, the 30-year yield dived 8.40%, sterling gained. Investors loved seeing Sunak become the new UK Prime Minister, they, however, hated seeing Xi Jinping confirm a third term. NASDAQ Nasdaq’s Golden Dragon China index lost more than 20% yesterday and closed the session more than 14% down. Direxion’s FTSE China Bear times 3 ETF jumped almost 30% in the session. Macro data On macro, the PMI data revealed yesterday did little good to the mood in Europe. The composite PMI fell to 47.1, which is the lowest level since April 2013. In the US, the services sector saw a sharp, and an unexpected decline to 46.6, from 49.3 printed a month earlier, and 49.6 expected by analysts. Japanese core CPI advanced to 2% versus 1.9% expected by analysts. The dollar-yen trades touch below the 149 mark after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) intervened to slowdown the depreciation in yen. US tech giants In the corporate space, two big US tech giants are due to announce earnings: Alphabet and Microsoft. Their revenues are expected to have slowed in the latest quarter, but how much of the slowdown is already priced in? Walking into the results, it’s important to remember that soft results don’t necessarily mean negative market reaction. If the soft results still beat the market estimates, we could see Google, and Microsoft shares rally. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:39 Markets are ready for Rishi! 2:52 …but not for Xi. 4:32 PMI data disappoint 6:00 Japanese inflation advance 7:25 Google earnings preview 9:07 Microsoft earnings preview 10:20 Option traders bet for Tesla below $200! Ipek Ozkardeskaya  Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Google #Microsoft #earnings #UK #PM #Rishi #Sunak #GBP #USD #JPY #BoJ #ECB #China #XiJinping #selloff #Tesla #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5  ___  Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH
At The Close Of The New York Stock Exchange 728 Securities Closed In The Red

The Major Indices On The New York Stock Exchange Rose

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.10.2022 08:02
At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 1.07% to hit a monthly high, the S&P 500 rose 1.63% and the NASDAQ Composite rose 2.25%. The Dow Jones index  The top performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today was Nike Inc, which gained 3.71 points (4.22%) to close at 91.72. Quotes of American Express Company rose by 5.39 points (3.81%), closing the session at 147.02. Boeing Co rose 4.60 points or 3.24% to close at 146.65. The biggest losers were The Travelers Companies Inc, which shed 3.70 points or 2.06% to end the session at 176.09. Amgen Inc was up 1.33 points (0.51%) to close at 259.99, while UnitedHealth Group Incorporated was down 1.38 points (0.25%) to close at 540. 22. The Dow Jones index  Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Centene Corp, which rose 10.47% to 83.75, IQVIA Holdings Inc, which gained 10.17% to close at 197.83, and shares of Charles River Laboratories, which rose 9.10% to end the session at 219.12. The losers were Brown & Brown Inc, which shed 12.65% to close at 55.10. Shares of Cadence Design Systems Inc shed 5.55% to end the session at 151.32. Quotes W. R. Berkley Corp fell in price by 4.64% to 69.20.  The NASDAQ Composite Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Taysha Gene Therapies Inc, which rose 97.35% to hit 2.98, Fangdd Network Group Ltd, which gained 89.64% to close at 1.26. , as well as shares of Revelation Biosciences Inc, which rose 64.60% to close the session at 0.41. The biggest losers were Hoth Therapeutics Inc, which shed 26.37% to close at 0.24. Shares of Mana Capital Acquisition Corp lost 23.24% to end the session at 5.99. Quotes TuanChe ADR fell in price by 18.45% to 6.32. The numbers On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (2619) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (487), while quotations of 112 shares remained practically unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2989 companies rose in price, 753 fell, and 241 remained at the level of the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 4.66% to 28.46, hitting a new monthly low. Gold Gold futures for December delivery added 0.21%, or 3.55, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude futures for December delivery rose 0.39%, or 0.33, to $84.91 a barrel. Brent futures for January delivery fell 0.05%, or 0.05, to $91.16 a barrel. Forex Market Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD rose 0.94% to hit 1.00, while USD/JPY fell 0.71% to hit 147.90. Futures on the USD index fell 1.03% to 110.75.   Relevance up to 04:00 2022-10-27 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/298317
Australia Is Expected To Produce A Bumper Year Of Crops

Ukrainian Exports Of Agricultural Products May Increase In October | Rising Energy Costs Will Hurt Microsoft's Operating Margin

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 26.10.2022 08:45
Summary:  A whiplash-inducing session for equity traders yesterday as the strong market session was spoiled after hours yesterday by weak results from Microsoft and Google-parent Alphabet. A drop in US treasury yields, meanwhile, has driven a sharp correction lower in the US dollar, with EURUSD eyeing parity suddenly ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting and AUDUSD trying to break higher after a hot core Q3 CPI reading overnight.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) Strong rally in US equities yesterday touching the 50-day moving average before settling a bit lower on the close. Price action has subsequently turned negative overnight after the cash session as disappointing earnings from Alphabet and worsening outlook from Microsoft are weighing on the indices. On the positive side, the US 10-year yield is coming down from its recent peak and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index showed yesterday that the US economy operated meaningfully above trend growth in both September and August suggesting inflationary forces are still intact despite tighter financial conditions. Euro STOXX 50 (EU50.I) Touched almost the 3,600 level as we indicated yesterday was the upside level the market was looking for, but the weaker US earnings overnight might impact equity sentiment today, but on the other hand European earnings releases this morning have broadly beaten estimates. FX: USD punched lower as yields drop Yesterday saw the potent, USD-negative combination of treasury yields pushing sharply lower and strong risk sentiment, but interesting to note that the USD weakness continued in late trading yesterday, even after important megacap companies in the US reported weak earnings and risk sentiment reversed sharply, suggesting that treasury yields are the primary driver of the moment. EURUSD came within spitting distance of parity again, and could head to 1.0200 on a break above if the US 10-year yield breaks below 4.00%, although traders may rein in their market exposure ahead of next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. USDJPY is also under pressure, trading near 148.00, and may have a path to 145.00 or lower if yields continue to ease. Elsewhere, a hot CPI print from Australia overnight (more below) has AUDUSD making a bid above the important 0.6400 area. Gold (XAUUSD) and silver (XAGUSD) Gold and silver trade higher after receiving a boost from a weaker dollar and continued decline in US bond yields amid signs the US economy is showing signs of rolling over, just days before the next FOMC interest rate decision on November 2. US yields slumped across the curve after data showed home prices tumbling the most since 2009 and US consumer confidence was down by more than expected. While another bumper 75 basis points hike is expected next week, the FOMC may decide to ease the foot of the brakes in coming meetings while assessing the impact of their rate and quantitative tightening actions. As a minimum gold needs to break above $1730 before an end to the month-long downtrend can be called. Until then watch the dollar and yields for inspiration, while silver, in order to avoid creating a potential bearish head-and-shoulder formation, needs a break above $20. Crude oil (CLZ2 & LCOZ2) Crude oil remains rangebound, with Brent currently stuck in a $90 to $95 range, after a weaker dollar led pop on Tuesday was reversed after the American Petroleum Institute reported a 4.5-million-barrel expansion in US crude stocks. In today’s weekly update from the EIA, the market will be watching distillate stocks as concerns about tight supplies continue to grow ahead of the EU embargo on Russian fuel starting next February. Diesel inventories in the US are at lowest seasonal level ever heading into winter while the situation in Europe looks similar. Developments that have driven distillate crack spreads and diesel prices at the pumps higher in recent weeks relative to gasoline. Also focus this week on earnings from Big Oil. US treasuries (TLT, IEF) US treasury yields dropped further yesterday, with the 2-year benchmark yield easing below 4.50%, and the 10-year yield pushing all the way down below 4.10% and therefore nearing the important 4.00% area. A drop in the latest Consumer Confidence survey (more below) offered a tailwind, as have talks since Monday of a possible treasury “buyback” from US Treasury Secretary Yellen, said to be prompted by the need to improve liquidity in the treasury market and attractive from the Treasury’s point of view as lower yielding long treasuries issued at far lower yields can be bought back at significant discounts. What is going on? Australia September and Q3 CPI comes in hot Yet another hot inflation report out overnight, particularly in the core inflation data, this time from Down Under, as Australia’s September CPI came in at +7.3% YoY vs. +7.1% expected, and the Q3 CPI was also higher than expected at +1.8% QoQ and +7.3% YoY vs. +1.6%/7.0% expected, with the “trimmed mean” core CPI out at +1.8%/6.1%, far above the 1.5%/5.0% expected, and 4.5% YoY in Q2. Housing prices were the biggest contributors up 10.5%, followed by Transport costs up 9.2% and Food price growth up 9%. US October Consumer Confidence weaker than expected The survey was out at 102.5 versus 105.9 expected and 107.8 in September, with a bad miss in the Present Situation component, which fell to 138.9 from 150.2 in September, a large drop and the lowest reading since early 2021. Wheat futures (ZWZ2) slipped to a five-week low on Tuesday ... with Black Sea grain exports pressuring prices while rain in recently dry growing areas in the US and Argentine adding further downward pressure to prices, especially in the US where recently planted winter wheat fields in the US Midwest look set to receive a decent dose of moisture and potentially further speed of the planting currently 79% completed. Ukraine’s export of agricultural products could rise by more than 8% in October from last month, the Ukrainian Agrarian Council said on Tuesday while ADM’s chief grain trader on an earnings call said that he sees “nothing significant that could derail” an extension of the Black Sea grain export corridor next month. Google shares down 7% on big Q3 miss It turned out that Snap’s worse than expected results last week were a good leading indicator on Google’s performance in Q3. Revenue came in at $69.1bn vs $70.8bn and operating income was $17.1bn vs est. $19.7bn as the operating margin is coming under significant pressure q/q and y/y. Revenue growth in Q3 at 6% y/y is the slowest pace since Q2 2020. Microsoft shares down 7% on worsening outlook FY23 Q1 (ending 30 September) revenue was $↨50.1bn vs est. $49.6bn and EPS of $2.35 vs est. $2.29, but it was the forecast for the current quarter that negatively surprised the market. Microsoft expects the slowdown in PC sales and rising energy costs to hurt operating margin, and the company has more or less introduced a hiring freeze to keep costs under control. What are we watching next? Bank of Canada set to hike 75 basis points We have an interesting combination of hot CPI readings in a number of places, including Canada and Australia, seeing the market adjusting expectations higher for the Bank of Canada and Reserve Bank of Australia, all while US yields have eased off on the anticipation that the FOMC will deliver a message. After the recent hot September Canada CPI reading, the market boosted expectations for today’s Bank of Canada hike to 75 basis points for today's, which will take the policy rate to 4.00% UK PM Sunak may delay budget statement scheduled for early next week Prime Minister Rishi Sunak may delay the report to give the new government a chance to find its feet first, with less urgency as sterling has not only stabilized, but rallied and UK Gilt yields have plunged, with the 10-year yield some 100 basis points lower, closing at 3.64% yesterday. Sunak reappointed Jeremy Hunt as Chancellor and announced a number of other appointments. Earnings to watch Today’s US earnings focus is Meta and given the weak results from both Snap and Alphabet due to worsening pricing on online ads we expect downward pressure on Meta’s business. Key for investors will be Meta admitting that its Metaverse bet is too expensive and will be reined in in the short-term as the company is facing tough headwinds on cash flow generation. Today: Dassault Systemes, Mercedes-Benz, BASF, Deutsche Bank, PingAn Insurance, CGN Power, UniCredit, Canon, Barclays, Standard Chartered, Heineken, Aker BP, Iberdrola, Banco Santander, SEB, Meta Platforms, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Bristol-Myers Squibb, ADP, Boeing, ServiceNow, Ford Motor, Twitter Thursday: ANZ, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Argenx, Shopify, Teck Resources, Neste, Kone, TotalEnergies, EDF, STMicroelectronics, PetroChina, China Life Insurance, CNOOC, Oriental Land, Shin-Etsu Chemical, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, Hoya, FANUC, Shell, Lloyds Banking Group, Universal Music Group, Repsol, Ferrovial, Hexagon, Evolution, Credit Suisse, Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, Merck & Co, McDonald’s, Linde, Intel, Honeywell, Caterpillar, Gilead Sciences, Pioneer Natural Resources Friday: Macquarie Group, OMV, ICBC, China Merchants Bank, LONGi Green Energy Technology, Midea Group, Imperial Oil, Danske Bank, Sanofi, Airbus, Volkswagen, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, BYD, China Shenhua Energy, Eni, Keyence, Hitachi, Denso, Equinor, CaixaBank, Wilmar International, Swiss Re, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, AbbVie, NextEra Energy, Colgate-Palmolive, Royal Caribbean Cruises Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 1230 – US Sep. Advance Goods Trade Balance 1400 – Bank of Canada Rate Decision 1400 – US Sep. New Home Sales 1430 – US DoE Weekly Crude Oil and Product Inventories 1500 – Canada Bank of Canada Governor Macklem to speak 1700 – US Treasury auctions 5-year T-notes 2045 – New Zealand RBNZ Governor Orr to speak 2130 – Brazil Selic Rate Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-oct-26-2022-26102022
The Current War Between China And The United States Over Semiconductor Chips Is Gaining Momentum

Google and Microsoft Fell, Expectations For Meta Are Low | The Bank Of Canada Will Deliver A Jumbo Rate Hike

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 26.10.2022 11:11
US indices rallied yesterday on the back of soft economic data from the US, but the sentiment reversed after the Q3 results from Google and Microsoft didn't please. Both stocks fell in the afterhours trading. Rest of the earnings were mixed. Meta is the next US giant to announce earnings, and expectations are rather… low. US Yields The US 2-year yield has been easing after hitting a fresh 15-year high last week, as the US 10-year yield fell to 4.05%. The dollar index tanked around 1%, both the EURUSD and Cable advanced past their 50-DMA, which were acting as strong resistance since the start of the year, especially since the start of the war in Ukraine. Bank of Canada The USDCAD fell to a 3-week low, as the Bank of Canada (BoC) prepares to deliver another jumbo rate hike today. The BoC could deliver a 75bp hike, which would further fuel the odds of recession in Canada by next year. FX Market It’s important to note that the common denominator of the latest FX moves is the softer US dollar. And the downside moves in dollar and the US yields depend on Fed expectations – whatever the other central banks do seem accessory to the main dollar story. Fed The Fed expectations have been shaped by softish data, and some softish comments from the Fed officials recently. But there is nothing official pointing at a potential softening tone from the Fed just yet. Hence, the recent fall in the US dollar, and rebound in equities may not last. Gains remain vulnerable. And very much so, as the latest results from the US tech giants failed to make the investors smile yesterday. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:35 Soft US data fueled optimism… 3:15 … but Big Tech earnings hurt. GOOG & MSFT fell 6.5% post-market 5:01 Other companies announced mixed results 6:30…as UPS surprised 7:00 Some come back to stocks, but stock/ bond correlation remains high 7:52 Meta earnings preview: expect nothing crazy… Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Meta #Google #Microsoft #UPS #Spotify #GM #Visa #UBS #CocaCola #earnings #USD #EUR #GBP #CAD #BoC #rate #decision #US #home #prices #Fed #expectations #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH  
RBI's Strategic INR Support: Factors Behind India's Stable Currency Amidst Global Challenges

At The Close Of The New York Stock Exchange Only The Dow Jones Rose

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.10.2022 08:00
At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 0.61% to hit a monthly high, the S&P 500 fell 0.61% and the NASDAQ Composite fell 1.63%. The Dow Jones index Caterpillar Inc was the top performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 15.18 points or 7.71% to close at 212.14. Boeing Co rose 5.97 points or 4.46% to close at 139.76. McDonald's Corporation rose 8.50 points or 3.31% to close at 265.11. The losers were shares of Intel Corporation, which lost 0.94 points or 3.45% to end the session at 26.27. Apple Inc was up 3.05% or 4.55 points to close at 144.80 while Nike Inc was down 2.00% or 1.85 points to close at 90.54. .  The S&P 500  Among the S&P 500 components gaining today were ServiceNow Inc, which rose 13.44% to hit 415.67, Arista Networks, which gained 9.31% to close at 119.12, and Caterpillar Inc, which rose 7.71% to end the session at 212.14. The least gainer was Meta Platforms Inc, which shed 24.56% to close at 97.94. Shares of Align Technology Inc lost 18.10% to end the session at 181.53. West Pharmaceutical Services Inc lost 13.04% to 221.22. The NASDAQ Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were AgroFresh Solutions Inc, which rose 71.34% to hit 2.69, HeartCore Enterprises Inc, which gained 55.67% to close at 1.51, and also shares of Altra Holdings Inc, which rose 48.37% to end the session at 59.72. The least gainers were Core Scientific Inc, which shed 78.13% to close at 0.22. Shares of Kalera PLC lost 65.43% and ended the session at 0.07. Quotes of Transcode Therapeutics Inc decreased in price by 37.39% to 0.72. The numbers On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (1,719) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (1,357), while quotes of 128 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 1,941 stocks fell, 1,821 rose, and 212 remained at their previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 0.40% to 27.39. Gold Gold futures for December delivery lost 0.21%, or 3.50, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude futures for December delivery rose 0.73%, or 0.64, to $88.55 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for January delivery rose 0.82%, or 0.77, to $94.56 a barrel. FX Market Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD fell 1.14% to hit 1.00, while USD/JPY shed 0.10% to hit 146.21. Futures on the USD index rose 0.83% to 110.46.     Relevance up to 05:00 2022-10-29 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/298704
The Gold Rally Is Continuing To Stall, This Could Be A Good Year For Crude Oil

The Risk Is Aggravated By The Weakness Of The Japanese Yen (JPY) |Gold And Oil Are Doing Well

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 28.10.2022 10:02
Summary:  A rocky session for equity markets once again yesterday, which tried to find cheer on falling bond yields, only for a thorough thrashing after the close yesterday on Amazon issuing its weakest ever holiday sales outlook, which saw its shares knocked some 13% in the aftermarket. Elsewhere, Apple shares managed to stabilize after its earnings report in, as revenue and earnings topped estimates. What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) The recent string of US earnings have not done much to keep the recent momentum in US equities alive. Neutral earnings from Apple last night was topped with awful outlook from Amazon, the second largest stock in the US equity market, that saw its shares decline 13% in extended trading. S&P 500 futures are retreating this morning trading around the 3,790 level despite a sizeable readjustment lower in the US 10-year yield to 3.93%. Euro STOXX 50 (EU50.I) European equities saw more diverging price action yesterday but closed above the 3,600 level again, but this morning STOXX 50 futures are coming down 1% trading around the 3,570 level with 100-day moving average at 3,528 being the next support level to watch. There are no economic releases in Europe of importance today so it will be interest rate direction and sentiment on earnings that will drive price action into the weekend. FX: USD pulled in two different directions as falling yields negative, weak sentiment positive The further drop in US treasury yields fail to extend the US dollar sell-off yesterday, as a far less hawkish than expected ECB took EURUSD back below parity and the Bank of Japan sent no new signals on its terminally stuck policy mix of ongoing QE and yield-curve-control.  Weak risk sentiment seems to provide offsetting support from the greenback, but the dollar will find stronger support if US data remains resilient and the Fed is faced to stay on message with further tightening, especially now that the market has significantly downshifted expectations for peak Fed Funds rate beyond the 75 basis point move expected at next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, with less than 100 basis points of further tightening now priced and a peak rate near 4.78% by next March. Gold (XAUUSD) Gold remains on track for a second week of gains although some caution has emerged ahead of next week's FOMC meeting. Yesterday, the positive sentiment received a knock as the dollar regained some ground, especially against the euro after the ECB stayed far less hawkish than expected. Countering this potential gold negative development, US bond yields continued lower with the US 10-year treasury yield benchmark falling below the important 4% level to record a +25-basis point drop on the week. While the FOMC is expected to deliver another bumper 75 basis points hike they may tilt towards slowing the pace at future meetings while assessing the impact of their rate and quantitative tightening actions. As a minimum gold needs to break above $1730 before an end to the month-long downtrend can be called. Crude oil (CLZ2 & LCOZ2) Crude oil remains on track for a second week of gains but for now without challenging resistance indicating a market still struggling for direction with no overriding theme being strong enough to set the agenda. Strength this week has been driven by a developing tightness in the fuel product market, US exports of crude and fuels setting a weekly record and the weaker dollar, as well as strong buying from China as refineries there plan to boost fuel exports through the end of the year. Diesel markets in Europe and the US continues to signal tightness ahead of winter with elevated refinery margins and prompt spreads signalling tight market conditions. Focus next week on the Nov 2 FOMC meeting and major OPEC producers beginning to cut their production. Additional technical upside in WTI above $89.25 while Brent’s next level of resistance is the October high at $98.75. US treasuries (TLT, IEF) The US 10-year treasury yield benchmark fell through the important 4.00% level yesterday, with the yield trading as low as 3.90% before treasuries found resistance. The 3.85% area is arguably a pivotal level if treasuries continue to rally. The entire yield curve dropped yesterday, in part on a less hawkish ECB continuing the trend recently of central banks delivering less than expected on guidance, as German 10-year Bunds dropped below 2.00% for the first time in weeks on the ECB meeting yesterday (more below). It looks like we’ll be heading into next week’s FOMC meeting with a fairly hard market lean for a significant downshift in the Fed’s hawkish message. What is going on? ECB the latest central bank to surprise dovish The ECB hiked its key rate 75 basis points to 1.5% from 0.75%. Officials dropped a reference to hikes continuing for "several meetings," in the statement, while saying they expect further action. Christine Lagarde said in the press conference that more rate hikes were on the way: "We still have ground to cover." The bank will continue to reinvest all maturing assets in its asset purchase program (QE) and QT won’t be discussed until the December meeting. The market read the meeting as a strong dovish surprise, as another 20 basis points of tightening were removed from forward expectations for 2023 (down some 50 basis points now from peak expectations just over a week ago.) Apple is a fortress FY22 Q4 revenue came out at $90.2bn vs est. 88.6bn up 8% y/y keeping up with inflation and EPS at $1.29 vs est. $1.26 driven by a new all-time high of active devices. The number of paid subscriptions, which Apple has recently announced will see price hikes, have doubled in three years to 900mn. Shares were unchanged in extended trading. Amazon shares plunged 13% on Q3 results Revenue in Q3 hit $127.1bn vs est. $127.6bn up 15% y/y but operating income hit $2.5bn vs est. $3.1bn. The weaker than estimated operating income was driven by a negative revenue surprise in their cloud business AWS with revenue of $20.5bn vs est. $21bn. The free cash flow in Q3 was still negative at $5bn with the combined negative free cash flow over the past year at $26bn. The change in cash generation for Amazon indicates that the pandemic turned out to be bad for the business as it spent too much on expanding capacity that could not be maintained. The outlook for Q4 was what terrified investors with the retailer guidance operating income in the range $0-4bn vs est. $4.7bn and revenue of $140-148bn vs est. $155.5bn. Japan announces massive fiscal stimulus Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kushida announced a ¥71.6 trillion (nearly $500 billion) stimulus package overnight, in a purported bid to “ease inflation” and shore up his government’s popularity. The new spending in the package is set at ¥39 trillion and will focus on incentivizing companies to raise wages, national security/defense and subsidies to reduce the impact of energy costs, especially electricity bills. With the Bank of Japan not allowing government bond yields to adjust, this risks adding to the yen’s weakness as long as other major central banks are not in easing mode. Caterpillar, McDonalds, and Boeing positive stories in the negative backdrop A few positive stories to highlight amidst the massive drop in marquee megacap names include Caterpillar, which soared a massive 7.7% on impressive results. Elsewhere McDonald’s (MCD) shares rose 3.3% on reporting sales that handily beat analysts’ estimates, despite inflationary pressures. McDonald’s results were boosted by McRib sales, and the fast-food chain will offer McRib nationwide in the US from the end of this month. Meanwhile, Boeing (BA) shares jumped a day after an ugly drop on its earnings report. Yesterday, shares rose 4.5% with the company releasing a bullish 20-year forecast for China’s commercial jet market, saying China will need to double its fleet in two decades and that China will be a major driver of Boeing sales. Boeing expects China to need 8,485 new passenger and freighter planes valued at $1.5 trillion through 2041. A tough week for coffee, cotton and sugar The Bloomberg Commodity Softs index trades down 5% on the week led by a 6% drop in Arabica coffee (KCH3) $1.79/lb, a 14-month low as money managers continue to exit long-held bullish bets, now turning increasingly sour amid concerns a global recession will hurt demand at a time where the outlook for the 2023/24 crop in Brazil is showing signs of improving. However, a combination of exchange monitored stocks lingering at a 23-year low and oversold condition may soon drive a technical bounce ahead of support at $1.73/lb. Sugar (SBH3) meanwhile has been hurt by a weaker Brazilian Real boosting incentives to export. Cotton (CTZ2), down 52% from its May peak has plunged to near a two-year low on weak demand for supplies as consumers around the world cut back on spending. Weekly export sales from top shipper, the US, plunged from a year earlier with overall sales for the current season being well behind last year and the long-term average. What are we watching next? Market leaning very hard now for a dovish downshift at next Wednesday’s FOMC After the Bank of Canada surprised with a smaller than expected hike this week and the ECB surprised with more dovish forward guidance, the market is now. But will the US data cooperate and is the maximum conceivable downshift from the Fed next week already in the price – given that the Fed itself has said that it will continue to hike even as the economy – including the labor market - weakens? After all, the market has removed nearly 25 basis points of tightening through the March FOMC of next year from the peak of just above 5.0% a bit more than a week ago to just under 4.8% now, and is more aggressively pricing the Fed to begin cutting rates by late next year (December ‘23 FOMC yield down almost 50 bps from peak).  Earnings to watch Today’s US earnings focus is on the two oil and gas majors Exxon Mobil and Chevron expected to report strong earnings in Q3. Exxon Mobil is expected to grow revenue 44% y/y with the operating margin expanding further. NextEra Energy is also worth watching given the recently passed US bill on renewable energy because it may lift the outlook for the industry. Today: Macquarie Group, OMV, ICBC, China Merchants Bank, LONGi Green Energy Technology, Midea Group, Imperial Oil, Danske Bank, Sanofi, Airbus, Volkswagen, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, BYD, China Shenhua Energy, Eni, Keyence, Hitachi, Denso, Equinor, CaixaBank, Wilmar International, Swiss Re, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, AbbVie, NextEra Energy, Colgate-Palmolive, Royal Caribbean Cruises Earnings releases next week: Monday: Daiichi Sankyo, Stryker Tuesday: Toyota Motor, Sony Group, Mondelez, AMD, Airbnb, Eli Lilly, Pfizer, BP Wednesday: KDDI, Novo Nordisk, GSK, Booking, Qualcomm, CVS Health, Estee Lauder, Humana Thursday: Cigna, Amgen, PayPal, Starbucks, EOG Resources, ConocoPhillips, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Zoetis, Canadian Natural Resources, DBS Group Friday: Duke Energy, Enbridge Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0800 – Germany Q3 GDP0900 – Eurozone Oct. Confidence Surveys1200 – Germany Oct. Flash CPI1230 – Canada Aug. GDP1230 – US Sep. Personal Income/Spending1230 – US Sep. PCE Inflation1400 – US Oct. Final University of Michigan Sentiment   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-oct-28-2022-28102022
Australia Is Expected To Produce A Bumper Year Of Crops

Grain Prices May Rise As A Result Of Russia's Actions | Stock Markets Increased Profit

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 31.10.2022 08:58
Summary:  Equities closed higher on Friday on the Wall Street, sending a bid tone to Asian stocks to start the new week. However a host of risks ahead including the Fed meeting which will see another jumbo rate hike but focus is also whether the members send out signals of a downshift in rate hike path. WSJ Timiraos has now hinted at higher for longer interest rates in his latest article, and this has helped a bid tone in US dollar to return in early Asian trading hours. Geopolitics also took an ugly turn with Russia backing off from grain export deal, threatening food crisis again. What is happening in markets? Need to know Asian stocks look to build on last week's US gains, though investors may be cautious ahead of the FOMC meeting. The S&P 500 jumped 2.5% on Friday in another turbulent session, buoyed by tech shares and some modestly positive economic data. Treasuries snapped a three-day rally, with 10-year yields rising back to around 4%, while the dollar inched up. Russia pulls out of the agreement to allow Ukrainian crop shipments, meaning its ready to halt Ukraine Wheat exports. Chinese President Xi Jinping will host a flurry of foreign leaders this week, making a return to the world stage after China's Covid Zero restrictions. On Thursday some Chinese cities ramped up COVID-19 restrictions and the IMF downgraded China’s growth expectations to 3.2%, after a 8.1% rise in 2021. Oil and gold both retreated. The Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) & S&P 500 (US500.I) trade near 6-week highs Apple (AAPL) shares rocked up 7.6% after it reported mostly better than expected results last week, and the sentiment buoyed technology shares, helping the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 notch their longest weekly rising streak since August. Plus, economic data showed small signs of improvement in the battle against inflation. This week, the most prominent companies to report quarterly results include; Exxon Mobil, Berkshire Hathaway, Advanced Micro Devices, Qualcomm, UBER, PayPal, and Starbucks. If you are looking for inspiration this week, here is the Five Stocks To Watch video. Australia’s ASX200 (ASXSP200.1) futures suggest a bullish 1.3% rise on Monday AM The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday is expected to deliver a 2nd straight quarter of 0.25% hikes on Tuesday’s meeting, according to Bloomberg. Australia’s corporate bond market is showing signs of succumbing to the global volatility in fixed income, unleashed by central bank tightening. And this is causing Australian tech stocks to remain pressured. Focus today is on earnings from Nickel Mines (NIC), Origin Energy(ORG), and coal company Corando Global (CRN). Elsewhere, pressure will likely be on iron ore giants, which might expect their selling rout after China increased covid-19 restrictions. Focus will be on Fortescue Metal, BHP and Rio Tinto which are all trading under their 200-day moving average. Crude oil (CLX2 & LCOZ2) trades at $88. Iron ore (SOCA) erases 3-years of gains Oil fell on Friday with WTI (CLX2 & LCOZ2) settling near $88 but posting a 3.4% weekly gain, despite the biggest crude importer, China, widening its COVID-19 curbs. This week; OPEC unveils its 2022 World Oil Outlook at the ADIPEC conference Monday. Plus, there is a swathe of energy ministers from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq and Nigeria will also weigh in, as well as CEOs from BP and Occidental. Meanwhile, Iron ore (SCOA) now trades at its lowest level since 2019, US$78.40 after China confirmed it will maintain its covid-19 policies. Markets, businesses, commodities with high exposure to China see heavy selling this week. Will it continue?  Assets with exposure to China are being heavily penalized as it seems investors are realigning their portfolios somewhat with the priorities of President Xi and his policy on stronger state control over the economy, which means markets could be challenged for years. Xi confirmed this stance on Sunday 24 October, and on top of that China increased covid-19 curbs, which is why Hong Kong’s Heng Seng suffered at 8.3%, drop last week, while the iron ore (SCOA, SCOX2) price fell ~15% last week, and now traded at $78.40 its lowest level since Feb 2019, on concerns that the biggest iron ore consumer will further slow demand, all while iron ore seems oversupplied. The biggest pure play iron ore company in the southern hemisphere, Fortescue (FMG) shares fell 10% last week, plus what added to the selling was that Fortescue affirmed it is increasing its spending, while its margins are tightening. Fortescue says it will ramp up iron ore production at its expanded facility in March, instead of June. Meaning, this could likely further push the iron ore market into greater oversupply. Some investors are concerned Fortescue Metals technical indicators show that perhaps more selling could be ahead, despite the stock trading somewhat in oversold territory. US dollar back on the front foot in Fed week The US dollar was seen returning to mild gains against most major currencies after Fed-pivot bets picked up last week. A turnaround in comments from Fed whisperer Nick Timiraos who is now suggesting higher-for-longer rates (read below) may be one of the reasons. The uptick in geopolitical worries with Russia pulling out of the grain deal may however also play a part in bidding safe haven flows to the dollar. Fed is expected to hike rates by another 75bps this week, and pricing for December is also close to 75bps still. This will likely revive pressure on the JPY this week, while GBP seems to have priced in all the good news for now. USDJPY heading to 148 in early Asian hours while GBPUSD testing 1.1600. Wheat futures (ZWZ2) gap higher Wheat futures (ZWZ2) gapped up 7% to open at $8.88/bushel after Russia pulled out of the UN brokered black sea grain deal over the weekend after Ukraine carried out an attack on Russia’s Black Sea fleet off Sevastopol. Corn has also gained 2.5% to open at $6.96/bushel. What to consider? US core PCE sends no clear signal to the Fed The US core PCE, Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, remained elevated for September as expected. The core measure came in at 5.1% YoY from 4.9% previously, but remained a notch softer than expected at 5.2% YoY. On a m/m basis, gains were flat at 0.5% as expected. While the case for November’s 75bps rate hike from the Fed is still intact, it still remains hard to argue a downshift with the kind of strength we are seeing in the US economy. WSJ Fed whisperer now signalling higher-for-longer rates Nick Timiraos, who is seen as the Fed’s messenger, had sent shivers across markets last week with a report suggesting that the November FOMC meeting may be used to signal a downshift to smaller rate hikes. This saw equity markets extending gains while the USD was on the backfoot last week, but now he has come out with another article saying that higher savings buffers and lower interest expenses could make the Federal Reserve raise rates higher and keep them there for longer. Russia exits Ukraine grain deal Russia suspended its participation in the Ukraine grain export deal after a swarm of drones targeted at least one Russian warship from the Black Sea navy. This will block the passage of millions of tonnes of grain via southern Ukraine and may lead to a fresh jump in prices. The report is especially catastrophic as it comes together with massive wheat crop damage with the US crop belt seeing La Nina for its third consecutive year. Putin is getting desperate after losing ground militarily and in terms of Europe’s winter gas requirement, so he has likely gone back to using the food crisis as another tool. Fed, BOE, RBA meet – what can you expect The Fed and BOE and RBA are expected to hike this week, with robust labour markets defying efforts to tamp down inflation, despite predictions of a imminent recession. Companies are complaining of chronic worker shortages, and a persistent mismatch between hiring demand and supply is supporting wages and shielding consumers from slowdowns. Consensus expects the RBA to take the cash rate from 2.6% to 2.85% on Tuesday. On Wednesday the Fed meets and consensus expects to take rates up by 0.75% to 4%. All in all, Goldman Sachs raised its peak Fed rate prediction to 5% from 4.75%, citing "uncomfortably high" prices will keep rates higher for long. On Thursday the Bank of England meets, and consensus expects to take the rate from 2.25% to 3%. This means FX markets are expected to be quite volatile along with equity market, especially interest rate sensitive parts of the market, tech, consumer spending and real estate stocks. Lula’s comeback in Brazilian presidential elections Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva claimed a victory in Brazil’s presidential election on Sunday, defeating incumbent rightwing leader Jair Bolsonaro by less than two percentage points and setting the stage for a return to leftwing governance in Latin America’s largest nation. Brazilian ETFs including such as EWZ:arcx, IBZL:xams, RIO:xpar, BRZU:arcx, or BRQ:arcx may be the ones to watch, as will be the BRL later in the day. BRL has been the best performer in the EM basket (excluding Russian rouble) against the USD so far this year. Lack of economic plans from Lula may make a case for market outperformance somewhat weaker, however. China PMIs out today at 9:30am SGT/HKT China’s October PMIs are due for a release today and expectations are for the manufacturing number to dip into the contractionary territory with Bloomberg consensus expecting a 49.8 print from 50.1 in September. A slowdown is also expected in the non-manufacturing print, but it still may remain in expansion.   For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.     Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/market-insights-today-31-oct-31102022
Preparation Of A Common Currency For South America, Gold Trades Softer

Victory In The Elections Of Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva | Smoother Crude Oil Trade

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 31.10.2022 09:13
Summary:  Equity markets closed strongly on Friday, even as the narrative that has purportedly driven strength at times in the equity market of late, the hope that central banks and especially the Fed are set for a dovish shift, failed to offer any fresh support on Friday. After a fresh article from “Fed whisperer” Nick Timiraos from the Wall Street Journal suggested that the Fed fears that it may have to keep the policy rate higher for longer, the event risk of the week will be the FOMC meeting this Wednesday, though other important central bank meetings are in the mix, including a Bank of England meeting on Thursday.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) Strong Friday close in the S&P 500 futures reaching the highest closing price for the up cycle that began earlier this month. S&P 500 futures are now up 8.7% from their lowest close on 12 October. This morning the index futures are trading lower hovering around the 3,898 level which is just below the 100-day moving average. This week is all about the FOMC decision and the ongoing US earnings. Euro STOXX 50 (EU50.I) European equities had a less spectacular performance on Friday and the impressive performance in US equities has not positively impacted STOXX 50 futures this morning trading lower around the 3,620 level. European equities have done better than US equities over the past month as the US technology sector has had weak Q3 earnings. FX: USD mixed as Wednesday’s FOMC meeting eyed Mixed developments for the US dollar on Friday, with the wild rally in equity markets a headwind, while the sharp, partial unwind of the anticipated dovish shift from the Fed at this Wednesday’s FOMC meeting offered some offsetting support as yields perked up slightly after testing key levels last week (see more below in What are we watching next?). After the brief foray above parity and nearly to 1.0100, EURUSD has been tamed back well below that level, while GBPUSD remains relatively bid and well clear of the pivotal level of 1.1500 ahead of the key event risk of the week for sterling, the BoE meeting Thursday (preview below). Elsewhere, USDJPY is coiling within the 145.00-150.00 range, while USDCNH has rebounded sharply and nearly back to the cycle highs. Broad CNH volatility is worth watching for contagion across asset markets. Wheat futures gap higher on Ukraine supply worries Wheat futures (ZWZ2) in Chicago surged as much as 7.7% to $8.93 on the opening after Russia over the weekend pulled out of the UN brokered black sea grain deal (see below). Since the UN and Turkey supported grain corridor opened three months ago Ukraine has shipped more than 9 million tons of foodstuff and it has helped ease tight world supplies and control global food costs. Money managers have been wrongfooted by the latest developments after raising bearish bets on Chicago wheat futures by 63% to a 28-month high in the week to October 25. Food exports from Ukraine also includes corn and sunflower oil and reduced supply of those has lifted corn futures (ZCZ2) in Chicago by 2.3% to trade near resistance at $7/bu and soybean oil futures by 2%. Gold (XAUUSD) Gold trades nervously within a narrowing range ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting where another bumper rate hike is expected. What may follow, however, has caused a great deal of volatility across markets with traders looking for guidance regarding the pace and strength of future rate hikes. Gold is heading for its seventh straight month of declines, the longest losing streak since at least the late 1960’s (Bloomberg) while bullion-backed ETF holdings have dropped to a 30-month low and money managers hold a net short near the highest in four years. All developments supporting an eventual recovery, but not until we reach peak hawkishness from where we could see yields and the dollar soften. As a minimum gold needs to break above $1730 before an end to the month-long downtrend can be called. Crude oil (CLZ2 & LCOZ2) Crude oil trades softer therefore trimming a monthly gain driven by already tight markets and OPEC+’s planned supply cuts from next month. The latest weakness once again being driven by weak economic data from China and a stronger dollar ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting after the famous FOMC whisperer at WSJ in an article speculated the Fed will need to keep rates higher for longer (see below). In addition to OPEC+ production cuts, the market will also have to gauge the impact of EU planned sanctions on Russian oil flows in December, a development that could be a “big hit” to already tight fuel supply, especially in Europe according to Eni’s CEO. US treasuries (TLT, IEF) The low water mark for the US 10-year treasury yield benchmark was near 3.90%, a key pivot level this week as we await the FOMC meeting and how the Fed’s guides for its future policy moves now that it is reaching an important inflection point in which the market expects it is likely the Fed will begin to hike in smaller increments as soon as December. It’s a delicate communication task to guide for a downshift without appearing too dovish. The important US economic data this week includes Thursday’s October ISM Services and especially the Friday October payrolls and earnings data for October. The October CPI is up next week. What is going on? Russia exits Ukraine grain deal Russia suspended its participation in the Ukraine grain export deal after a swarm of drones targeted at least one Russian warship from the Black Sea navy. This will block the passage of millions of tonnes of grain via southern Ukraine and may lead to a fresh jump in prices. The report is especially catastrophic as it comes together with massive wheat crop damage with the US crop belt seeing La Nina for its third consecutive year. Ukraine’s infrastructure ministry said 218 ships had been immediately affected. This included 95 that had already left its ports and were waiting at the inspection site before unloading, 101 waiting for inspection before collecting Ukrainian grain, and a further 22 that were loaded up and ready to set sail. “Putin needs leverage as things go south for him on the battlefields in Ukraine, so the threat of global food crisis needs to be put back in the Russian toolbox of coercion and blackmail,” wrote Alexander Gabuev, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace via the FT. Lula’s comeback in Brazilian presidential elections Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva claimed a victory in Brazil’s presidential election on Sunday, defeating incumbent rightwing leader Jair Bolsonaro by less than two percentage points and setting the stage for a return to leftwing governance in Latin America’s largest nation. Brazilian ETFs including such as EWZ:arcx, IBZL:xams, RIO:xpar, BRZU:arcx, or BRQ:arcx may be the ones to watch, as will be the BRL later in the day. BRL has been the best performer in the EM basket (excluding Russian rouble) against the USD so far this year. Lack of economic plans from Lula may make a case for market outperformance somewhat weaker, however. What are we watching next? Is Fed concerned that market is expecting too much of a dovish shift at FOMC meeting this Wednesday? Nick Timiraos, who is seen as a kind of “Fed whisperer” and possible conduit of Fed communication with the market, had sent shivers across markets last week with a report suggesting that the November FOMC meeting may be used to signal a downshift to smaller rate hikes. This saw equity markets extending gains while the USD was on the backfoot last week, but now he has come out with another article: Cash-rich Consumers Could Mean Higher Interest Rates for Longer, saying that higher consumers savings buffers and a low level of interest expenses could require that the Federal Reserve raise rates higher and keep them there for longer due to less sensitivity to interest rates than was seen likely previously. The December 2023 EuroDollar contract had rallied as much as 50 basis points off the lows recently, correcting some 15 basis points Friday and slipping a bit lower to start this week as the market is unsure of how aggressively it should lean for dovish guidance. Big week ahead for central bank meetings The general theme is “downshifting” of guidance (As noted in the FOMC comments above). The FOMC meets Wednesday and is expected to hike 75 basis points with guidance indicating that the pace of hikes may start to slow as soon as at the December meeting (if likely with no commitment in either direction). First up, however, is tonight’s RBA meeting, where Governor Philip Lowe and company are expected to only hike 25 basis points tonight after a string of 50 basis point moves as the RBS is concerned about the impact of further tightening on consumption and mortgage payments, though a small minority still expect another 50 basis points moves. On Thursday, we have a pivotal Bank of England meeting, the first after the violent market swings during the uproar over former PM Truss’ fiscally risky policy moves. With calming markets and the new Sunak government rolling out far tighter budget plans, BoE expectations have fallen like a stone, but with the market still expecting the first ever 75 basis point move for this cycle. The BoE has s history of bad communication with the market – and an austere budget brings forward and increases the severity of the coming recession. Finally, Norges Bank also meets Thursday and is expected to hike 25 basis points, seemingly in no hurry despite a very weak currency and high inflation readings, and even having guided that it soon sees an end to the tightening cycle. Earnings to watch Today’s US earnings focus is Stryker which is expected to see its earnings growth increase to 7% y/y with operating margin still under pressure. Otherwise, as we look ahead, earnings tomorrow from Toyota, Sony, BP, AMD, and Airbnb will have the market’s focus. Monday: Daiichi Sankyo, Stryker Tuesday: Toyota Motor, Sony Group, Mondelez, AMD, Airbnb, Eli Lilly, Pfizer, BP Wednesday: KDDI, Novo Nordisk, GSK, Booking, Qualcomm, CVS Health, Estee Lauder, Humana Thursday: Cigna, Amgen, PayPal, Starbucks, EOG Resources, ConocoPhillips, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Zoetis, Canadian Natural Resources, DBS Group Friday: Duke Energy, Enbridge Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0900 – Switzerland SNB Weekly Sight Deposits 0930 – UK Se. Mortgage Approvals 1000 – Eurozone Oct. Flash CPI estimate 1000 – Eurozone Q3 GDP estimate 1345 – US Oct. Chicago PMI 1430 – US Oct. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity 1500 – ECB Chief Economist Lane to speak 0145 – China Oct. Caixin Manufacturing PMI 0330 – Australia RBA Cash Target Announcement Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-oct-31-2022-31102022
At The Close Of The New York Stock Exchange 728 Securities Closed In The Red

On The New York Stock Exchange Much More Securities Fell Than Rose

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 01.11.2022 08:09
At the close in the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.39%, the S&P 500 fell 0.75% and the NASDAQ Composite fell 1.03%. The Dow Jones The leading gainers among the components of the Dow Jones index today were The Travelers Companies Inc, which gained 2.59 points (1.42%) to close at 184.55. Quotes of Goldman Sachs Group Inc rose by 3.03 points (0.89%), ending trading at 344.85. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated rose 4.11 points or 0.75% to close at 555.35. The losers were shares of Intel Corporation, which lost 0.64 points or 2.20% to end the session at 28.43. Microsoft Corporation was up 1.59% or 3.74 points to close at 232.13, while Dow Inc was down 1.58% or 0.75 points to close at 46.73 . The S&P 500  Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Wynn Resorts Limited, which rose 9.61% to hit 63.90, Coterra Energy Inc, which gained 3.49% to close at 31.15, and also shares of DaVita HealthCare Partners Inc, which rose 3.47% to end the session at 72.99. The biggest losers were Global Payments Inc, which shed 8.83% to close at 114.25. Shares of Newell Brands Inc shed 8.24% to end the session at 13.81. Quotes of Meta Platforms Inc decreased in price by 6.09% to 93.16. The NASDAQ  The leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Sonnet Biotherapeutics Holdings Inc, which rose 66.38% to 1.93, Acorda Therapeutics Inc, which gained 63.36% to close at 1.07. as well as shares of Shineco Inc, which rose 37.96% to close the session at 1.09. The biggest loser was Y mAbs Therapeutics, which shed 59.80% to close at 3.61. Shares of Tusimple Holdings Inc lost 45.64% to end the session at 3.43. Quotes Bull Horn Holdings Corp. decreased in price by 45.61% to 6.50. The numbers On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (1604) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1472), while quotes of 118 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, papers of 2004 companies fell, 1753 rose, and 165 remained at the level of the previous closing. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 0.50% to 25.88. Gold Gold futures for December delivery lost 0.53%, or 8.65, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for December delivery fell 1.95%, or 1.71, to $86.19 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for January delivery fell 1.32%, or 1.24, to $92.53 a barrel. Forex Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD was down 0.80% to hit 0.99, while USD/JPY was up 0.87% to hit 148.74. Futures on the USD index rose 0.77% to 111.45.   Relevance up to 04:00 2022-11-02 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/299126
Asia Morning Bites: Focus on Regional PMI Figures, China's Caixin Manufacturing Report, and Upcoming FOMC Minutes and US Non-Farm Payrolls"

The Close On The New York Stock Exchange Was Red

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 02.11.2022 08:17
At closing time on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones was down 0.24%, the S&P 500 was down 0.41% and the NASDAQ Composite was down 0.89%. Dow Jones The leaders among Dow Jones index components in today's trading were shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. which gained 2.28p (1.81%) to close at 128.16. Nike Inc rose 1.09 pct (1.18%) to close at 93.77. Goldman Sachs Group Inc rose 3.94p (1.14%) to close at 348.45. The least gainers were shares of Apple Inc, which fell 2.69p (1.75%) to close the session at 150.65. Salesforce Inc shares rose 2.79p (1.72%) to close at 159.80, while Microsoft Corporation dropped 3.96p (1.71%) to close at 228.17 S&P 500 The top gainers among S&P 500 index components in today's trading were ABIOMED Inc which gained 49.88% to 377.82, IDEXX Laboratories Inc which gained 9.80% to close at 394.93, and Hologic Inc which gained 9.34% to end the session at 74.13. Catalent Inc shares were the fallers, down 24.62% to close at 49.55. Shares of Zebra Technologies Corporation lost 15.86% and ended the session at 238.30. Ecolab Inc dropped 8.98% to 142.96. NASDAQ  The gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite index in today's trading were shares of ABIOMED Inc. which gained 49.88% to 377.82, Sonnet Biotherapeutics Holdings Inc. which gained 46.63% to close at 2.83 and shares of NLS Pharmaceutics AG which gained 44.00% to close the session at 0.74. Varonis Systems shares were the fallers, dropping 35.49% to close at 17.27. Shares of China Liberal Education Holdings lost 27.39% to end the session at 1.14. Acorda Therapeutics Inc. was down 25.22% to 0.80. On the NYSE, 1,960 securities gained more than 1,172 which closed negative and 95 were flat. On NASDAQ, 2,101 stocks gained in value, 1,680 declined, and 194 remained flat. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on the S&P 500 options trade, fell 0.27% to 25.81. Gold Gold futures for December delivery added 0.55%, or 8.95, to $1.00 per troy ounce. In other commodities, December WTI crude oil futures rose 2.02%, or 1.75, to $88.28 a barrel. January Brent crude futures traded up 1.83%, or 1.70, to $94.51 per barrel. FX Market Meanwhile, on the Forex market, EUR/USD remained unchanged 0.08% to 0.99, while USD/JPY dropped 0.33% to 148.23. The USD index futures rose 0.02% to 111.44.     Relevance up to 04:00 2022-11-03 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/299302
Hungary's Budget Deficit Grows, Raising Concerns Over Fiscal Targets

Operating Profit Beat Of Sony Was Broad-Based | A Sharp Increase In Base Metals

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 02.11.2022 09:01
Summary:  Higher-than-expected US job openings data and a still-strong ISM manufacturing print pushed the US yields higher as terminal Fed pricing topped 5% again. This saw equity markets on the backfoot ahead of the Fed meeting scheduled for later today, and mixed earnings results from AMD and Airbnb also underpinned, while Sony jumped higher as FX effects supported better than expected results and improved guidance. Shares of Asian mining companies tied to nickel and copper may move after the metals rallied on speculation Beijing will make preparations to ease China’s stringent Covid rules. NZ jobs gains may support more RBNZ rate hikes but NZD remained cautious. What is happening in markets? The Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) & S&P 500 (US500.I) fall on solid labor market data, which supports an aggressive Fed hike path The US major indices fell on Tuesday, with the S&P500 ending 0.4% lower, after erasing the 1% earlier gain, while the Nasdaq 100 met a similar fate before ending 0.9% lower. Two-year Treasury US yields , which are most sensitive to imminent Fed moves, topped 4.5% after sliding as much as eight basis points earlier in the day. The added volatility and risk-off mode came after US job openings unexpectedly rebounded in September amid low unemployment. This will likely fuel further wage gains (inflation), and it means the Fed will likely hike by 75-bp (0.75%). But keep in mind, any hint of a dovish pivot on Wednesday could perhaps prompt an outsized market reaction and risk on rally. Big tech weighed on equities, with Apple (AAPL) down almost 2%, and Amazon (AMZN) falling 5.5%, taking its value below $1 trillion for the first time since 2020. On the upside, investment banks did well include JP Morgan (JPM) up 1.8% and Goldman (GS) up 1.2%. While in the S&P500 Abiomed (ABMD) shares rose 50% with Johnson & Johnson, announcing it will takeover the firm for $17.3 billion, building on its portfolio of technology assisting heart function. After market, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares rose almost 5% after its profits beat expectations and it signaled that inroads in the server chip market will continue to bolster its finances. The Dow Jones traded near a resistance level, that saw the index halt a few rally attempts, in the past few months.  China/HK stocks surge on unofficial reports that China may be looking to exit Zero Covid The CSI300 surged over 3.5% on Tuesday and the HSI rose by over 5% on speculation that Beijing is preparing to phase out Covid Zero policies, even as the country’s Foreign Ministry said it was unaware of such a plan. Unverified social media posts circulated online on Tuesday showed a committee was being formed to assess scenarios on how to exit Covid Zero. Internet giants Meituan and Tencent were some of the biggest gainers. While the reports may be unconfirmed for now, it gives a signal on how strong a recovery can come through if China alters its Zero Covid policy stance at some point. Australia’s ASX200 (ASXSP200.1) futures suggest a flat start, but focus will be on copper and nickel giants, and companies with USD exposure Focus will be on nickel and copper companies including Nickel Mines (NIC), Oz Minerals (OZL), and BHP (BHP), which are expected to gain attention and possibly move higher after the commodities prices rallied on speculation Beijing could make preparations to ease China’s stringent Covid rules, which have kept commodities prices underwater. BHP shares rose 3.7% in New York, and the listed entity in Australia is expected to likely follow. Focus will also be in Amcor (AMC) which has just reported financial results, declaring a stronger dividend that expected, stronger EPS than expected, but weaker than expected income, weighed down by the strength of the US dollar. The global packaging giant sees its full year financial results being negatively impacted by the US dollar by 5%, up from its prior 2% estimate. NZDUSD brushes off a broadly positive employment report NZ jobs data for Q2 was rather mixed with unemployment rate still near record lows, while rising slightly to 3.3% and wage growth of 2.6% YoY much higher than last month’s 2.3%. Employment change slowed slightly to 1.2% YoY but was far better than expectations of 0.3%, and also up 1.3% QoQ. While these numbers underscore a case for still-higher inflation and the need for further rate hikes from the RBNZ, NZD remained largely unchanged in early Asian trading hours after the release. NZDUSD eased from overnight highs of 0.5900 to trade around 0.584, while AUDNZD is testing the downside at 1.094 after breaking below 1.10 yesterday following a dovish RBA. While NZDUSD will continue to focus on what the Fed path brings, there may be more downside in store for AUDNZD amid the policy divergence of the RBA and RBNZ, unless one of the two things change: 1. RBNZ pivots to a pace of smaller rate hikes, or 2. China sends signals of opening up. This will bring the focus back on current account differentials which favour the AUD over the NZD. RBNZ’s financial stability report also highlighted some concerns from higher interest rates on consumption and new residential construction. Metals run higher on China speculation Copper and nickel led a surge in base metals on unconfirmed speculation Beijing is preparing to ease Covid rules, even as these reports were later denied by Chinese Foreign Ministry official. This also brought the focus back on supply issues in Copper, with inventories running low on exchanges. LME Nickel was over 8% higher as well, along with Zinc and Aluminium as well. Iron ore (SCOA) moved up slightly as a result, adding 0.3% to $78.35. Gold (XAUUSD) rose back towards $1650 but higher bond yields continue to haunt especially ahead of the critical Fed meeting. Silver, enjoying a trifecta of support from rising gold and copper as well as the weaker dollar, traded up to once again challenging resistance at $20/oz. A break may bring the key $21.14 back into focus. Crude oil (CLX2 & LCOZ2) Oil prices also gained on the China news, while a weaker USD up until the release of the US job openings or the ISM data also supported gains in oil. OPEC+ production cuts continue to keep the supply outlook tight for the oil market, but the overall sentiment is muddled by weakening global demand concerns and also the EU sanctions on Russian crude that are set to begin in December. WTI futures were seen rising towards $89/barrel while Brent futures were close to $95.   What to consider? US job openings and ISM manufacturing complicate Fed’s message US job openings saw an unexpected rebound in September amid low unemployment, suggesting more wage gains could be in store. JOLTS job openings came in higher at 10.7 million in September from a revised 10.3 million in August. This likely thrashes expectations of any material downshift from the Fed after today’s widely expected 75bps increase. Meanwhile, October's ISM manufacturing index also remained in expansion at 50.2, albeit falling from last month’s 50.9. However, disinflationary trends were emphasised as the index of prices paid fell to an over 2-year low. Still, sticky shelter and services inflation remains materially high suggest still-higher interest rates remain on the horizon. Terminal rate pricing for Fed funds futures has picked up again to 5% levels, and it would be hard for the Fed to push it any higher at this point, but what it can clearly hint at today is pushing out of the rate cut expectations for next year. Read our full FOMC preview here for further insights. Lack of insurance halted UN Black Sea shipments, but progress being made The UN halted grain shipments from Ukraine's Black Sea ports on Wednesday, after Russia warned ships weren't safe using the route and demanded guarantees from Ukraine. However, reports suggested early on Wednesday that an agreement had been reached and ships will start to sail again from Thursday, as pressure on Russia continues to build. We continue to watch crop and fertilizer prices, as a meaningful reversal could come through if we see improving shipments across the Black Sea region. RBA ups inflation forecasts, downgrades GPD, remains dovish. Possibly market implications if rate hikes stop early, as they have historical The RBA hiked the cash rate by 25bps (0.25%) as expected to 2.85%, maintaining its dovish stance and bordering on restrictive, as it again acknowledged tighter financial conditions are yet to be felt in mortgage payments, but higher rates and inflation has put pressure on household budgets and caused a small amount of loan arrears and insolvencies. The RBA’s rate hike cycle since May, has been the second fastest in history and we also note the RBA was the first major central bank to under-deliver on rate hike expectations (last month). Also consider, what’s ahead. The RBA has a history of stopping rate hikes early, before CPI peaked in YoY terms. Over the last 30 years the RBA started easing ‘early’ and cut rates despite headline CPI staying above its 2-3% target. So, could the RBA replay this trend? We think so. The RBA rose its 2022 CPI forecast to around 8%, up from 7.8%. Meaning, the Q4 CPI read could print between 7.75% and 8.25%. The RBA downgraded its GDP forecasts, only expecting 3% this year and 1½ per cent in 2023 and 2024. If the RBA makes any hint of a becoming even more dovish at their next meeting, it could perhaps prompt an outsized market reaction in the ASX200 and fuel a risk on rally. Imminently, in FX, the AUDUSD is on watch ahead of the Fed’s hike on Wednesday, and could succumb to further selling if the Fed hikes by 0.75%. Another pair under pressure is the AUDNZD.  AMD earnings supported by servers despite weak PC sales Advanced Micro Devices rose in the after-hour trading as it reported better than estimated Q3 earnings, although issuing guidance that missed analysts’ expectations. EPS came in $0.67 vs estimated $0.65, revenue $5.57B vs estimated $5.62B. Guidance suggested AMD is expecting strong growth in its server chip business in the coming quarters. Q3 results were in-line with a warning issued by AMD on October 6 which helped to reset expectations, as weak PC sales continued to underpin. Airbnb drops on disappointing guidance Airbnb reported its highest revenue and most profitable quarter but a muted Q4 outlook as consumer preferences are shifting back to cities which tend to have lower rates based on smaller sized spaces. Q3 revenue rose 29% to $2.88B, estimated $2.84B. Net profit rose 45.6% to $1.21B. But the company said it expected bookings to moderate after a bumper third quarter. Sony surges on profit beat Weak yen propped up revenues for Sony and also nudged up the fiscal year profit outlook, pushing shares higher in early trading. Q2 sales came in at 2.75tr yen, est. 2.67 tr yen while operating income was 344bn yen vs. 280.66bn yen expected. Operating profit beat was broad-based, except in games.   For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/market-insights-today-2-nov-02112022
Bank of England survey highlights easing price pressures

The Bank Of England (BoE) Starts Selling Bonds | Airbnb Down, Sony Up

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 02.11.2022 11:50
Jay Powell will probably hammer the dovish hopes, and the latest risk rally when he speaks following the FOMC decision today. Fed In preparation for an unpleasantly hawkish Fed statement today, the US 3-month yield spiked above the 4.20% mark, the level it was normally supposed to be in 18 months, the 2-year yield returned above the 4.50% mark, the US dollar index advanced and the US equities sold off, as yields jumped. The ADP report is due a couple of hours before the Fed decision, and is expected to have eased below 200’000 in October. Any positive surprise will likely further boost the Fed hawks, and dampen the mood in risk assets. China In China, stocks extend gains on an unverified social media post that China will end its Covid measures. The Chinese foreign ministry spokesman said he was unaware of the plan. Disneyland in Shanghai was shut with people in it, after a Covid case was found in the park… I wouldn’t cry victory just yet! UK In Britain, the first day of bond selling from the Bank of England was a success. The BoE sold 1$750 million worth of bonds, demand exceeded offer, gilt yields pulled lower and sterling was steady. Airbnb Airbnb fell 5% post-market on disappointing Q4 outlook, Sony jumped near 10% in NY as softer yen helped boosting sales, BP announced the second biggest quarterly results, while Abiomed jumped 50% after Johnson & Johnson announced to buy the company. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:18 Will Powell save the risk rally? 2:22 Market update 4:17 Oil stocks extend rally, BP announce strong profits 5:45 Airbnb down, Sony & Abiomed up 7:11 BoE starts selling bonds successfully 8:42 EUR, XAU faith in Powell’s hands… Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Fed #FOMC #rate #decision #USD #ADP #US #jobs #report #crudeoil #ExxonMobil #Chevron #BP #China #covidzero #UK #QT #GBP #BoE #Sunak #EUR #XAU #Sony #Abiomed #JohnsonJohnson #Airnbn #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___  Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH      
The Gold Rally Is Continuing To Stall, This Could Be A Good Year For Crude Oil

Can We See An Improvement In Supplies In The Black Sea Region? | Crude Oil Is Growing

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 02.11.2022 11:57
Summary:  A surprisingly strong survey of US job openings yesterday suggests that the US labor market remains extremely tight, potentially continuing to feed inflationary pressures. Today sees the latest FOMC meeting, at which the Fed will have to grapple with guidance and whether to flag the much-anticipated possible downshift from 75 basis point hikes at the December meeting. Given the recent easing of financial conditions and strong risk sentiment, the Fed may try to lean against the market and hawkishly keep all options on the table. Industrial metals run higher on speculation China is preparing to ease Covid rules.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) The fear of recession has eased quite a bit in October and as a result equities have rallied from their lows in October. S&P 500 futures are trading around the 3,868 level this morning as the US 10-year yield has moved higher above 4% again. The big event is tonight’s FOMC rate decision which will prove to be a delicate balancing act for the Fed keeping financial conditions tight enough but smooth the transition to this higher level of interest rates without breaking the market. If the market interprets a dovish tilt tonight the 4,000 level is quickly the main focus point in the S&P 500 futures. Euro STOXX 50 (EU50.I) STOXX 50 futures touched the 200-day moving average yesterday before retreating, but this morning the index futures are continuing higher trading around the 3,661 level, which is just below the 200-day moving average. The 3,800 level in STOXX 50 futures could be the next big level to watch if momentum continues. European equities are enjoying tailwinds from easing energy and electricity markets and better than expected GDP reports in Q3 showing that the European economy can absorb the input cost shocks for now. FX: USD rallies on very strong JOLTS survey, eyes FOMC The greenback rebounded yesterday on the very strong September JOLTS jobs openings survey, which jumped sharply from the large August dip (see more below), helping US treasury yields back higher. See the FOMC meeting preview under What are we watching next? below. Today and in the wake of the important US jobs data tomorrow, the pivotal areas for EURUSD are perhaps 0.9850 and parity on the daily/weekly close, for GBPUSD, the 1.1400-1.1500 area is the zone of contention, and in AUDUSD, 0.6350-0.6530. USDJPY will be sensitive to any sharp move in US treasury yields, leaning toward 150.00 if yields jump in the wake of tomorrow’s US jobs report or challenging 145.00 if the Fed fails to surprise hawkish today and the jobs data is weak. Gold (XAUUSD) Gold reached $1657 before running into sellers as bond yields rose following stronger US economic data. The dollar and yields developments continue to haunt the metal, especially ahead of today’s critical Fed meeting. Silver, initially enjoying a trifecta of support from rising gold and copper as well as the weaker dollar, traded up to once again challenge resistance at $20/oz before running out of steam. Crude oil (CLZ2 & LCOZ2) Crude oil trades higher for a second day with WTI challenging a recent high at $90 and Brent moving closer to $97.25 resistance. Oil prices initially received a boost from China reopening speculation, the weaker dollar and OPEC+ production cuts before extending gains after the API reported a bumper 6.5-million-barrel drop in crude inventories. Apart from today’s official inventory report from the EIA, crude oil traders will turn their attention to today’s FOMC meeting given the potential impact the rate decision and comments may have on the dollar and the general level of risk sentiment. US treasuries (TLT, IEF) The key US 10-year treasury yields pulled back above the important 4.00% level after the strong September jobs openings survey out of the US yesterday, but far more important are today’s FOMC meeting and further incoming data, discussed below. The recent price action makes it clear that the 3.90% area is important resistance for bond yields and at the shorter end of the curve, the 5.00% level will be an important focus, given that the market has been unwilling to take Fed expectations more than a couple of basis points beyond that level as it continues to see the Fed cutting rates by the end of next year. What is going on? Metals run higher on China speculation Copper and nickel led a surge in base metals on speculation - which was later denied - that Beijing is preparing to ease Covid rules. However, metals held gains after China’s outgoing premier Li Keqiang said China will strive for a "better" economic outcome and promote stable, healthy and sustainable development, saying China’s economy is showing signs of stabilizing, as well as “rebounding momentum" thanks to stimulus. Developments showing the potential support for industrial metals when restrictions are being lifted, and it brought the focus back on supply issues in Copper, with inventories running low on exchanges and major producers struggling to meet their production targets. The BCOM Metal index jumped 3.4% with steel and iron ore prices also receiving a bid. HG copper’s further advance will be challenged by multiple resistance levels between $3.55 and $3.78. European earnings This morning we have got strong results from Novo Nordisk, Maersk, and GSK, while the wind turbine maker Vestas misses big on revenue and EBIT. Vestas is also adjusting its FY EBIT to –5% from previously –5% to 0%. Novo Nordisk reports Q3 revenue of DKK 45.6bn vs est. DKK 44.4bn and EBIT of DKK 20.2bn vs est. DKK 19.2bn in addition to increase its sales forecast due to strong demand for its obesity drug Wegony. Maersk is still enjoying strong earnings beating estimates on EBIT in Q3, but the container shipping company is lowering its forecast for container volume and in general the market is expecting a slowdown in 2023. US job openings and ISM manufacturing complicate Fed’s message US job openings saw an unexpected rebound in September amid low unemployment, suggesting more wage gains could be in store. JOLTS job openings came in higher at 10.7 million in September from a revised 10.3 million in August. This likely thrashes expectations of any material downshift from the Fed after today’s widely expected 75bps increase. Meanwhile, October's ISM manufacturing index also remained in expansion at 50.2, albeit falling from last month’s 50.9. However, disinflationary trends were emphasised as the index of prices paid fell to an over 2-year low. Still, sticky shelter and services inflation remains materially high suggest still-higher interest rates remain on the horizon. Terminal rate pricing for Fed funds futures has picked up again to 5% levels, and it would be hard for the Fed to push it any higher at this point, but what it can clearly hint at today is pushing out of the rate cut expectations for next year. Read our full FOMC preview here for further insights. Lack of insurance halted UN Black Sea shipments, but progress being made The UN halted grain shipments from Ukraine's Black Sea ports on Wednesday, after Russia warned ships weren't safe using the route and demanded guarantees from Ukraine. However, reports suggested early on Wednesday that an agreement had been reached and ships will start to sail again from Thursday, as pressure on Russia continues to build. We continue to watch crop and fertilizer prices, as a meaningful reversal could come through if we see improving shipments across the Black Sea region. AMD earnings supported by servers despite weak PC sales Advanced Micro Devices rose in the after-hour trading as it reported better than estimated Q3 earnings, although issuing guidance that missed analysts’ expectations. EPS came in $0.67 vs estimated $0.65, revenue $5.57B vs estimated $5.62B. Guidance suggested AMD is expecting strong growth in its server chip business in the coming quarters. Q3 results were in-line with a warning issued by AMD on October 6 which helped to reset expectations, as weak PC sales continued to underpin. Airbnb drops on disappointing guidance Airbnb reported its highest revenue and most profitable quarter but a muted Q4 outlook as consumer preferences are shifting back to cities which tend to have lower rates based on smaller sized spaces. Q3 revenue rose 29% to $2.88B, estimated $2.84B. Net profit rose 45.6% to $1.21B. But the company said it expected bookings to moderate after a bumper third quarter. Sony surges on profit beat Weak yen propped up revenues for Sony and also nudged up the fiscal year profit outlook, pushing shares higher in early trading. Q2 sales came in at 2.75tr yen, est. 2.67 tr yen while operating income was 344bn yen vs. 280.66bn yen expected. Operating profit beat was broad-based, except in games. Australian home-lending falls more than expected in September House lending in Australia fell 8.2% YoY in September (far more than the market expected) while building construction lending fell 36.6% YoY, with the weaker data sets coming out just a day after the RBA remained dovish - raising Australia’s official cash rate by 25bps (0.25%) to 2.85%. Yesterday the RBA acknowledged tighter financial conditions and the ‘full effect’ of increased interest rates are yet to be felt in ‘mortgage payments’, but the rate hikes since May, combined with higher inflation have already put pressure on household budgets. What are we watching next? FOMC meeting – Fed may want to keep a low profile, but can’t afford to be seen dovish The September JOLTS jobs openings data point yesterday was the latest to suggest that the Fed will have a hard time pre-committing to any slowdown in the pace of its policy tightening after the 75-basis-point hike that is priced in for today’s meeting. The December 14 FOMC meeting odds have not shifted much over the last couple of weeks, as investors still favour a downshift to a 50-basis-point move then and another 50 basis points of tightening early next year over the space of a couple of meetings. To surprise hawkish today, the Fed may have to make it very clear that it is willing to continue tightening beyond current expectations and beyond its September forecasts to boost the greenback via rate guidance, but is probably also reluctant to pre-commit to anything. Pointing to high reactivity to further incoming data may be one way to achieve this. That will then mean extreme volatility on the next bits of Incoming data ahead of the December meeting, starting with the ISM Services tomorrow and then the October jobs report this Friday and two more CPI releases before December 14. Earnings to watch Today’s US earnings focus is Estee Lauder, Booking, Fortinet, and Albemarle. Analysts expect revenue to decline by 11% y/y at Estee Lauder but improving operating margin. The cosmetic business is facing headwinds from labour costs and transportation. Booking is expected to deliver strong earnings growth given the better-than-expected result from Airbnb yesterday. Analysts expect 26% y/y revenue growth and EPS growth of 35% y/y. Fortinet is one of the market leaders in the fast-growing cyber security industry and with the ongoing war in Ukraine we expect demand for cyber security solutions to be high; analysts expect Fortinet to grow revenue by 30% y/y in Q3. Albemarle is riding the demand for lithium as electric vehicle sales is seeing explosive growth. Albemarle is expected to deliver 168% y/y growth in revenue and EPS growth of 545% y/y. Today: Suncor Energy, Nutrien, Novo Nordisk, Maersk, Vestas Wind Systems, GSK, Qualcomm, CVS Health, Estee Lauder, Booking, Fortinet, Ferrari, Albemarle Thursday: Verbund, Barrick Gold, Orsted, Novozymes, BNP Paribas, BMW, Enel, ING Groep, DBS Group, ConocoPhillips, Amgen, PayPal, Starbucks, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, EOG Resources, Moderna, MercadoLibre, Block, Cloudflare, Coinbase Friday: Enbridge, Societe Generale, Intesa Sanpaolo, SoftBank, Amadeus IT Group, Duke Energy, Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0815-0900 – Eurozone Final Oct. Manufacturing PMI 0855 – Germany Oct. Unemployment Change/Rate 1215 – US Oct. ADP Employment Change 1430 – EIA's Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report 1800 – US FOMC Meeting 1830 – US Fed Chair Powell Press Conference 2000 – New Zealand RBNZ Governor Orr before Parliamentary Committee 0145 – China Oct. Caixin Services PMI  Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-nov-2-2022-02112022
FX Daily: Upbeat China PMIs lift the mood

In The US, Stocks May Remain Risk-Free | According To Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang, The Chinese Economy Is Showing Signs Of Stabilization

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 03.11.2022 08:25
Summary:  The Nasdaq 100 & S&P 500 drop after the Fed made hawkish remarks post lifting rates 0.75%. Fed says ‘we still have some ways to go’. It will make ‘ongoing increases’ until rates are ‘sufficiently restrictive’. Provided the upcoming economic data is strong, and shows the US economy is, the Fed can keep hiking. However, it could pivot as early as December. Until the next major US eco data release it seems equites could remain in risk-off mode, especially with high PE stocks, like tech, while defensive and commodity plays with rising cash flows could continue to garner interest. China’s Li signals a potential economic recovery, fuelling commodities and China’s markets. Crude oil rocks up after OPEC raised its forecast for oil demand. a2 Milk gets FDA green light. What is happening in markets? The Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) & S&P 500 (US500.I) drop after Fed made hawkish remarks post lifting rates 0.75% US major indices dropped on Powell's hawkish comments. The S&P 500 shed 2.5% and the Nasdaq plunged 3.4% with megacap tech stock copping the brunt of the selloff with Apple (AAPL) down 3.73% and Tesla (TSLA) down 5.6% with the EV giant reportedly shutting its flagship showroom in China, in Beijing as it shift strategy. What prompted high PE stocks being sold off was that Treasuries yields rose across the curve, with the 10-years up 4 bps to 4.08%. The dollar reversed course and rose against every G-10 peer save the yen. So, the bottom line is, the market will now be contending with a risk-off tone, until the next US economic data sets prove the Fed can pivot. Oil moved higher, while corn and wheat dropped on grain-corridor developments. Elsewhere, Boeing (BA) shares rose 2.8% with the plane maker saying it could generate $10 billion in cash annually by mid-decade, once it turns around its operations after years of setbacks. Australia’s ASX200 (ASXSP200.1) futures suggest risk-off mode will be enacted with tech stocks on notice. Focus will be on milk Aussie tech stocks are likely to come under pressure with US bond yields rising again. However, there may be bright sparks today. Iron ore (SCOA) rose 0.4% sitting back above $80.85, which might support iron ore companies shares. That said, BHP closed 3.1% lower in NY. A2Milk (A2M) may garner attention after the US FDA gave approval for a2 Milk to be sold in the US. Bubs Australia (BUB) may likely 'piggyback' on any gains. That said, you could expect infant formula stocks to gain interest, particularly as China’s outgoing premier signal China is striving to build sustainable development. In other news; Rio (RIO) moved in on taking over a Canadian copper-gold company, Turquoise Hill Resources (TRQ). On Wednesday in Australia, Rio offered C$43 per share for the Canadian miner, saying that is its best and final offer. Rio is seeking to buy 49% of the Canadian miner, that it doesn’t already own, in a deal valued at around C$4.24 billion. Turquoise Hill Resources shares surged The Investor meeting to consider the takeover is set for November 8. Rio is also bidding to gain control of Mongolia’s Oyu Tolgoi, one of the world’s biggest copper mines. Crude oil (CLX2 & LCOZ2) rocks up after OPEC raised its forecast for oil demand   Oil rallied for several reason; firstly OPEC rose its forecasts for world oil demand in the medium to longer term, saying that $12.1 trillion of investment is needed to meet this demand. Second, an EIA report showed US gasoline inventories fell to the lowest since 2014 and East Coast distillate stocks slide to a record low seasonally, which intensifies supply concerns. Crude supplies also fell. Natural gas rose in the US and in Europe. Fed says ‘we still have some ways to go’; and it will make ‘ongoing increases’ until rates are ‘sufficiently restrictive’. What to watch next, what it means for equities Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stuck to his campaign to bring inflation under control, saying “we still have some ways to go”, before rates were ‘sufficiently restrictive’ but the path may soon involve smaller hikes. Still, Powell sees it may be appropriate to make smaller hikes, as soon as December, or at the meeting after. But, he also said it was very premature to be thinking about pausing. After the Fed raised rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday, Powell said “incoming data since our last meeting suggests that ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected.” He also mentioned rate hikes have a lag effect on the economy, and the Fed needs to take this into account. This means, the devil will be in the detail ahead, as in the upcoming economic data which the Fed will respond to. Provided the upcoming economic data is strong, shows the US economy is, then the Fed can essentially keep hiking. For equites this means the risk-off mode in high PE stocks, like tech can possibly continue, inversely, defensive and commodity plays with rising cash flows might continue to garner interest. Saxo’s Head of FX Strategy says, so cue tomorrow’s ISM Services, Friday’s US jobs report, the October CPI due out next week, November 11 next week, and the November CPI report due December 12. China’s Li Keqiang signals a potential economic recovery, fueling commodities and China’s markets China’s outgoing premier Li Keqiang said China will strive for a "better" economic outcome and promote stable, healthy and sustainable development, saying China’s economy is showing signs of stabilizing, as well as “rebounding momentum" thanks to stimulus. This has supported gains in iron ore (SCOA) and also supported optimism in Asian equites. Australian lending and building approvals fall more than expected, giving the RBA greater cause to remain dovish. Keeping AUDUSD on notice House lending in Australia fell 8.2% in September (far more than the market expected) while building construction lending fell 36.6%, with the weaker data sets coming out just a day after the RBA remained dovish - rising Australia’s official cash rate by 25bps (0.25%) to 2.85%. On Tuesday the RBA acknowledged tighter financial conditions and the ‘full effect’ of increased interest rates are yet to be felt in ‘mortgage payments’, but the rate hikes since May, combined with higher inflation have already put pressure on household budgets. We believe the RBA could increasingly become dovish despite inflation running away to the upside. We think the RBA may be forced to potentially pause on rate hikes sooner, as they have done in history, despite peak inflation continuing to rise YoY. The AUDUSD remains under pressure for this reason. Plus until the Fed has reason to pivot the US dollar remains supported. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/market-insights-today-3-nov-03112022
Russia Look Set To Double Its Exports For The First Half Of 2023

Volatility In The Grain Market May Continue | Global Demand For Containers Will Fall This Year

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 03.11.2022 10:45
Summary:  Traders were given a case of whiplash yesterday over the FOMC meeting after the new monetary policy statement confirmed the impression that the Fed will soon downshift the size of rate hikes after another 75 basis points hike at this meeting. But then a very hawkish press conference from Fed Chair Powell took Fed terminal rate expectations next year to new highs for the cycle, pummeling risk sentiment and lighting a fire under the greenback. The next key focus will be tomorrow’s US October jobs report.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) Powell delivered a jolt to equities communicating on the FOMC press conference that the terminal rate could be higher than what the market expects and that rates will stay higher for longer. S&P 500 futures could out many support levels on the downside in the last night session and are continuing lower this morning trading around the 3,765 level with the 3,700 level being the next level to watch on the downside. Powell’s remarks confirm our view that inflation and interest rates will remain higher for longer and that equities will be under pressure in the medium term, being negatively impacted by higher interest rates and more margin compression. Euro STOXX 50 (EU50.I) STOXX 50 futures are naturally responding to Powell’s statements yesterday trading lower this morning around the 3,575 level with the 100-day moving average around the 3,528 level being the gravitational point on the downside to watch. FX: USD bull market is back in business after hawkish Fed Chair Powell presser The dollar was first weak yesterday on the new monetary policy statement before the hawkish Powell presser lit a fire under the greenback as he made it clear that the ceiling could be raised next year for the “ultimate level” of Fed funds rate, de-emphasizing the size of rates from here after several 75-basis point moves. The US dollar ripped back to the strong side, generating compelling reversal patterns for USD bulls almost across the board, with the important 0.9876-0.9850 area falling in EURUSD, GBPUSD slipping below the bottom of the 1.1400-1.1500 zone, AUDUSD crushed back below 0.6400, USDJPY support at 145.00 surviving yesterday with the pair lifting back well north of 147.00, etc. Of course, the USD will be sensitive to incoming data, but yesterday established a clear line in the sand that USD bulls will now use for longs, eyeing the cycle highs for the greenback against most other G10 currencies. Gold (XAUUSD) Gold trades lower following a volatile session where Fed Chair Powell managed to wrongfoot most markets. Following the expected 75 bp rate hike the written statement raised the prospect of the FOMC pausing to assess the “cumulative tightening” impact before saying at the press conference “We still have some ways to go. And incoming data since our last meeting suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected”. Most markets, including gold, responded by turning sharply lower with the yellow metal slumping 2% from the high. These comments send a signal that we have not yet reached peak hawkishness and with that the risk of a prolonged period of dollar and yield strength slowing gold’s recovery. It’s the incoming data that everyone will have to watch, starting with US payrolls this Friday. Crude oil (CLZ2 & LCOF3) Crude oil traded lower after the FOMC meeting raised expectations for a higher peak in US rates and together with continued uncertainty over China demand they helped offset support from a tightening fuel market. Earlier in the day the market jumped after the EIA reported US gasoline supplies had fallen to a 2014 low while distillate supplies on the East Coast had reached a near record seasonal low. China’s zero-Covid tolerance remains the overall strategy according to the government, thereby removing some earlier optimism about a change. However, OPEC+ cuts from this month and upcoming EU sanctions is likely to keep the market rangebound with resistance in Brent at $97.25. US treasuries (TLT, IEF) The hawkish Powell press conference yesterday (more below) took Fed rate expectations to new highs for the cycle and the 2-year rate is pushing on cycle highs near 4.62%, while the 10-year merely rebounded above 4.00% as the yield curve is close to its most inverted for the cycle at below –50 bps for the 2-10 spread. Incoming US data will be the focus next for the longer end of the yield curve and whether 10-year yields can threaten the cycle highs well north of 4.25%. What is going on? FOMC one-two as dovish interpretation of new policy statement reversed by hawkish Powell presser The initial read of the FOMC statement was dovish, as the new statement inserted the phrase: “The Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.” This read a bit dovish as the market assumed that this means the anticipated downshift in Fed rate hikes is coming and US yields dropped, risk up, USD down, etc. In the press conference, however, Fed Chair Powell was far more hawkish, saying there is a “ways to go”, and spelling out that the incoming data means that the “ultimate level” that the Fed funds reaches is likely to move to higher levels than was though at the September meeting. This had Fed expectations for the spring of next year edging back toward the cycle highs of 5.00% and then closing the day a full 10 basis points higher near 5.10%. While Powell did say it may be possible that the Fed steps down to smaller hikes as soon as the December meeting, the FOMC felt that the speed of hikes Is becoming “less important” (leaving market to infer that the Fed just keeps hiking at more meetings if incoming data supports doing so. As well, we must remember that the Fed has cranked up the pace of quantitative tightening in the background, which provides its own tightening pressure on markets and arguably equates with several hundred basis points of rate tightening over the course of a year. European earnings this morning Orsted is raising its full-year guidance on EBITDA excluding new partnerships to DKK 21-23bn and Q3 revenue was DKK 36.5bn vs est. DKK 26.7bn highlighting the increased profitability in power generation using renewable energy. BNP Paribas beats on both revenue and net income driven by strong results in its fixed-income, commodities, and currencies trading. BMW is also beating on both Q3 revenue and EBIT and maintaining its EBIT margin fo 7-9%. US earnings recap Fortinet, the industry leader in cyber security, delivered Q3 revenue of $1.15bn vs est. $1.12bn and adj. EPS $0.33 vs est. $0.27 and Q4 outlook on revenue of $1.28-1.32bn vs est. $1.27bn and Q4 EPS outlook of $0.38-0.40 vs est. $0.35, but despite strong figures shares were lower in extended trading. Albemarle delivered high growth in Q3 on revenue and earnings, but lowered its fiscal year revenue and EPS a bit against their previous guidance. Wheat (ZWZ2) prices slump as Russia to resume grain deal participation Amid mounting pressure on Russia to avoid a galloping food crisis, Russia finally agreed to resume its participation in the Ukraine grain deal, allowing safe passage of Ukraine’s crop exports. Wheat prices dropped over 6% on the news and corn was lower as well, with vessels likely to resume normal operations today. Russia however threatens to pull out of the agreement at any time, which suggests volatilities can continue till the war goes on. Better-than-expected US ADP turns attention on NFP US ADP national employment reported a 239k increase in October, above the expected 193k and the prior, revised lower, 192k, ahead of the key NFP on Friday. While there is little confidence in this data set as the methodology has been recently revised and there is limited backward data, a tight labor market is still the clear read. Focus now turns to NFP due on Friday, with unemployment rate and wage growth remaining as the key metrics to track. Bloomberg consensus expectations are still set for a headline gain of 200k for October, with unemployment rate inching a notch higher to 3.6% from 3.5% previously and wage growth slightly weaker at 4.7% YoY from 5.0% YoY previously. Maersk warns about rapid economic deterioration Maersk, the world’s largest owner of container ships, said it expects global container demand to decline by up to 4% this year, as against its previous estimate of +/- 1%. It also warned that next year could be worse, signalling further downturn in global trade may be on the cards. Still, Q3 earnings before interest and tax rose to $9.48bn vs. $8.63bn expected. What are we watching next? Next US data points and impact on US yields Fed Chair Powell made it clear yesterday that he didn’t feel the size of Fed rate hikes are very important after yesterday’s 75 basis point move, but that the Fed could continue to tighten beyond what the Fed itself was forecasting less than two months ago, suggesting a higher peak rate. Currently, peak Fed rates for next year are projected at 5.10% by next spring, a new cycle high and well above the prior highs just above 5.0% after Powell made a hawkish impression at yesterday’s press conference. That leaves the market still very sensitive to incoming data for gauging how high the Fed might take rates next year, with the next data points of note the October US ISM Services survey up today and the October jobs data up tomorrow. Earnings to watch Today’s US earnings focus is ConocoPhillips, PayPal, Starbucks, MercadoLibre, and Cloudflare. Based on previous results in the energy sector we expect ConocoPhillips to deliver good results. PayPal has had headwinds for some time and could disappoint. One of our worst performing theme baskets has been e-commerce which has been hit by difficulties in advertising targeting due to Apple’s data privacy decision, supply chain bottlenecks, and explosive prices on logistics. MercadoLibre is the South American version of Amazon and analysts expect revenue growth of 45% y/y and EPS growth of 24% y/y. Cloudflare will be in focus and given the negative sentiment over Fortinet’s earnings release last night expectations might be too high for any cyber security company to deliver on. Today: Verbund, Barrick Gold, Orsted, Novozymes, BNP Paribas, BMW, Enel, ING Groep, DBS Group, ConocoPhillips, Amgen, PayPal, Starbucks, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, EOG Resources, Moderna, MercadoLibre, Block, Cloudflare, Coinbase Friday: Enbridge, Societe Generale, Intesa Sanpaolo, SoftBank, Amadeus IT Group, Duke Energy, Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0730 – Switzerland Oct. CPI 0805 – ECB President Lagarde to speak 0900 – Norway Norges Bank Deposit Rate announcement 1130 – US Oct. Challenger Job Cuts 1200 – UK Bank of England Rate Announcement 1230 – UK Bank of England Governor Bailey press conference 1230 – US Sep. Trade Balance 1230 – Canada Sep. Building Permits 1230 – Canada Sep. International Merchandise Trade 1230 – US Q3 Nonfarm Productivity/Unit Labor Coasts 1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 1330 – Czech Central Bank Rate Announcement 1400 – US Sep. Factory Orders 1400 – US Oct. ISM Services 1430 – EIA's Weekly Natural Gas Strorage Change 0030 – Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement 0030 – Australia Q3 Retail Sales Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-nov-3-2022-03112022
OPEC+ Meeting: Saudi Arabia Implements Deeper Voluntary Cuts to Boost Oil Prices

Supply Outlook Of Crude Oil Remains Challenged | The Norges Bank (NB) Took The Dovish Path

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 04.11.2022 08:44
Summary:  While the Fed surprised hawkish this week, most other central banks have been surprising dovish, with the latest being Bank of England which tried to cool down the aggressive market pricing for their terminal rate. Meanwhile, Norges Bank also took the less hawkish path, and this has made USD the king again with sterling suffering the heaviest blow. US stocks and bonds were lower, and oil prices, as well as precious metals, also suffered in the aftermath of Fed’s hawkish tilt. Focus turns to NFP today which should continue to suggest a tight labor market. What is happening in markets?   The Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) continued to slide on hawkish Fed and weaker outlook U.S. stocks continued to adjust for the second day to the increased prospect of interest rates being higher for longer following Powell’s pushback to the market’s speculation for Fed pivot on Wednesday, with S&P falling 1.06% and Nasdaq 100 down 2%. For a discussion on the implication of Powell’s hawkish comments on equities, please refer to Peter Garnry’s article here. Information technology, falling 3%, was the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500 while energy, up 2%, and industrials, up 1% were the outperformers. Announcements of hiring or headcount freezes from Amazon (AMZN:xnas), Apple (AAPL:xnas), Lyft (LYFT:xnas), and Morgan Stanley stirred concerns among investors about the outlook of the economy and corporate earnings. After closing, Starbucks (SBUX:xnas) reported above expectations revenues and earnings while a number of software companies, including Atlassian (TEAM:xnas), Twilio (TWLO:xnys), Appian (APPN:xnas), missed revenues guidance. 10-year U.S. treasury yields (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) The U.S. yield curve bear flattened as the 2-year yield jumped to as high as 4.74%, before finishing the session at 4.71%, the highest level since 2007. It brought the 2-10 year spread to was wide as -58 and close at -56, the most inverted level in 40 years. The market has brought another 75bp hike in December back to the table, pricing in a slightly more than 50-50 chance. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIX2) China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Being hit by the double whammy of the reiteration from China’s National Health Commission that dynamic zero-Covid is the primary pandemic control strategy and a hawkish Fed Chair Powell hinting at higher terminal rates, Hang Seng Index tumbled 3.06% and the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH.I) dropped 3.8% on Thursday. China Internet, EV, healthcare and property stocks dragged the benchmark indices lower. Following the hike by the U.S. Fed overnight, five leading commercial banks in Hong Kong raised their prime rates by 25bps. On the data front, Caixin China PMI Services came in at 48.4 in October (consensus: 49.0; Sep: 49.3), falling further into contractionary territory. CSI300 performed relatively more resilient and pared some losses in the afternoon to finish the day losing only 0.8%. Semiconductors, defence and basic chemicals gained. Buying emerged overnight in the U.S. hours, Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index jumped more than 3% and Hang Seng futures were nearly 1.5% higher from Hong Kong closing. FX: GBPUSD suffered on BOE-Fed differential The USD is seeing another leg higher not just on the back of Powell’s hawkishness this week, but also with the other central banks taking the less hawkish path. Both Norges Bank and BOE surprised dovish yesterday, in continuation of the trend that we have seen from Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada and the ECB earlier. GBPUSD fell over 2% to sub-1.12 on the announcement that BOE thinks market’s current pricing is too aggressive. December pricing is still at another 50bps rate hike but it won’t be a surprise if it is pulled lower after we had two dovish dissenters on Thursday. NOK saw a selloff as well, while USDJPY continues to find trouble to overcome 148.50 despite the fresh surge in US yields. Crude oil (CLX2 & LCOZ2) worried about demand After a hawkish FOMC, commodity markets have once again started to focus on demand weakness that could come as a result of Fed’s rapid tightening pace. Meanwhile, any hopes of a recovery in Chinese demand have also been crushed for now with authorities still standing by their zero Covid strategy. WTI futures traded close to $88/barrel while Brent futures were below $95. Supply outlook remains challenged however going into the winter, with OPEC+ having announced production cuts followed by EU sanctions on Russian crude flows from December. Gold (XAUUSD) and Silver (XAGUSD) to face short-term pressures Our Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen wrote yesterday on how gold and silver turned sharply lower yesterday after Fed Chair Powell delivered a hammer-blow to sentiment across markets as he managed to both pull off the idea of the Fed may indeed soon pivot to a slower pace of rate hikes, but that any talk of a pause is “very premature”. Gold touched sub-1620 levels yesterday before a slight recovery later in the session while Silver took a look below $19. There is likely to be more pressure in the short term, but as yields get closer to a peak or as the possibility of central bank policy mistake increases, while inflation continues to run higher, the outlook for the precious metals could revert to being positive.   What to consider? Bank of England’s dovish hike The BOE hiked by 75bps to 3%, as expected by the consensus, but strongly pushed back against expectations for the scale of future moves, saying that the terminal rate priced in currently by the markets would induce a two-year recession. There were also two dovish dissenters at the meeting, one calling for 50bps rate hike and another for a mere 25bps. New forecasts were also released, which gave a particularly grim outlook for the economy, looking for a GDP print of -0.5% QoQ in Q3 2022 vs -0.1% expected in September. The inflation forecast now shows a peak around 11% in Q4, which is marginally hotter than the prior meeting’s projection. US weekly jobless claims tick lower, ISM services softened There was a slight decline in initial jobless claims to 217k from previous 218k, coming in marginally below the expected at 220k. Still, labor market remains tight despite some signs of cooling and continues to provide room to the Fed to continue its tightening cycle. Meanwhile, the ISM services index fell more than expected to 54.4 in October from 56.7 previously, however the prices paid gauge increased by 2% pts to 70.7 and remains elevated. Norges Bank hiked by 25bps With expectations split between a 25 or 50bps rate hike, Norges Bank took the dovish path as well despite a deteriorating inflation outlook. However, the Committee continues to place emphasis on the growth situation writing "there are signs that some areas of the economy are cooling down" and acknowledging the tightening effect that the higher policy rate is beginning to have. For the December gathering, the Committee points to a further hike being likely. Australia to double its Royal Australian Airforce cargo fleet in a $10 billion US military deal US officials are looking to approve the sale of $10 billion of iconic cargo aircraft, including 24 Hercules planes, to Australia. The US Defence Security Co-operation Agency says Australia is one of its most important allies in the western Pacific and its location and economic power ‘contributes significantly to ensuring peace and economic stability in the region’. Australia has operated the Hercules aircraft for decades, with the aircraft playing a major role in moving troops and equipment in and out of war zones and evacuating civilians after the fall of Kabul last year. It has also performed countless missions flying humanitarian supplies to countries hit by natural disasters. Australia trade surplus swells on surging energy exports Australia’s trade surplus swelled to $12.4 billion in September, smashing expectation of a $8.75 billion surplus. It comes as exports rose far than expected, up 7% vs the 1% consensus expected thanks to greater demand for mineral fuels for energy, while iron ore exports also rose. Imports remained unchanged month on month. Multiple reports of hiring freezes emphasizing margin pressures Apple paused all hiring for roles outside research and development. Amazon will pause new incremental hires in its corporate workforce, citing an "uncertain" economy and its recent hiring boom. Lyft will eliminate 13% of staff, or around 683 people.   For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.     Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/market-insights-today-4-nov-04112022
At The Close Of The New York Stock Exchange 728 Securities Closed In The Red

On The New York Stock Exchange, Over 2000 Of Securities Rose In Price

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 07.11.2022 08:14
At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 1.26%, the S&P 500 rose 1.36%, and the NASDAQ Composite rose 1.28%.  Dow Jones The leading performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today was Nike Inc, which gained 5.43 points (6.01%) to close at 95.83. Quotes Dow Inc rose by 2.52 points (5.41%), ending trading at 49.01. Caterpillar Inc rose 4.37% or 9.58 points to close at 228.84. The least gainers were Salesforce Inc, which shed 6.54 points or 4.47% to end the session at 139.79. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated rose 5.46 points (1.00%) to close at 538.15, while Apple Inc shed 0.27 points (0.19%) to end at 138. 38.  S&P 500 Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc, which rose 11.53% to 35.20, Estee Lauder Companies Inc, which gained 8.69% to close at 210.62, as well as Newmont Goldcorp Corp, which rose 8.55% to end the session at 41.02. The least gainers were Warner Bros Discovery Inc, which shed 12.87% to close at 10.43. Shares of Live Nation Entertainment Inc shed 7.25% to end the session at 70.88. ServiceNow Inc lost 6.12% to 361.95. NASDAQ Among the components of the NASDAQ Composite Index today, the leaders of growth were Huadi International Group Co Ltd, which rose 70.26% to 180.00, Sentage Holdings Inc, which gained 34.54% to close at 4.09 , as well as shares of Digimarc Corporation, which rose 29.35% to close the session at 18.95. The least gainers were Pulmonx Corp, which shed 60.94% to close at 4.82. Shares of Funko Inc lost 59.38% and ended the session at 7.92. Quotes of Sensus Healthcare Inc decreased in price by 51.23% to 6.34. The numbers On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (2275) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (839), while quotes of 85 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2070 companies rose in price, 1658 fell, and 202 remained at the level of the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 2.96% to 24.55, hitting a new monthly low. Gold Gold futures for December delivery added 3.30%, or 53.90, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for December delivery rose 5.08%, or 4.48, to $92.65 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for January delivery rose 4.24%, or 4.01, to $98.68 a barrel. Forex Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD rose 2.16% to hit 1.00, while USD/JPY shed 1.12% to hit 146.60. Futures on the USD index fell 1.91% to 110.65.     Relevance up to 04:00 2022-11-08 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/299846
China's Position On The Russo-Ukrainian War Confirmed At The G20 Meeting

China Will Maintain Its Zero-Covid Policy | US Dollar (USD) Back Into Gains

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 07.11.2022 08:58
Summary:  Speculation about China relaxing its stringent dynamic zero-Covid policy stirred up risk-on trades on global equities and commodities on Friday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index surged 5.4% and China’s CSI 300 rose 3.3%. A mixed job report brought about a choppy session in the U.S. and stocks managed to finish the day higher as materials and industrials rallied in the afternoon when Investors turned their focus to the China reopening notion and strength in commodities. What’s happening in markets? The Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) rebounded on Friday but were still down for the week Following a mixed job report, the U.S. equity markets had a choppy session on Friday, fluctuating between gains and losses, and finished the day higher. S&P500 gained 1.4% and Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.6%. For the week, however, S&P 500 was down 3.4% and Nasdaq 100 was 5.7% lower. All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 gained on Friday, with materials having done the best and up 3.4%. Software names underperformed on earnings and revenue misses. US  treasury (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) yields were largely steady after the job report U.S. treasury yields surged initially on the stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll gain of 261K jobs in the establishment survey but pared the rise after the market focus shifted to the higher unemployment rate of 3.7% and a decline of 328K in employment in the household survey. The yield curve turned steeper notably, with the 2-year yield down 6bps to 4.66%, the 10-year yield up 1bp to 4.16%, and the 30-year yield jumping 7bps to 4.25%. The market is pricing in a 65% chance of a 50bp hike at the December FOMC and a terminal Fed Fund rate at around 5.1% next year. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIX2) China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) rallied dramatically on reopening hope Stocks in Hong Kong and the mainland surged on intensification of speculation on relaxation (not abandoning but relaxing) of the dynamic zero-Covid policy, newswire stories reporting that the U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) has completed the first round of inspection on Chinese ADR ahead of schedule, and an article from Vice-Premier Liu He on the People’s Daily pledging to boost domestic aggregate demand.  Hang Seng Index jumped 5.4% and CSI300 surged 3.3%. Hang Seng China Enterprise Index surged 6% and China Internet stocks climbed 10% to 17%, with Alibaba (09988:xhkg) up 11%, and Tencent (00700:hkxg) up 7.8%. FX: USD gains return as China asserts commitment to Zero Covid FX: USD gains return as China asserts commitment to Zero Covid With plenty of chatter last week about China’s reopening, commodity currencies had been supported with NZD leading the gains against the USD and being up over 2%. AUDUSD also surged above 0.6450 into the end of the week on hopes of a recovery in commodities demand. However, weekend reports from China’s Health Ministry confirmed that China will maintain its present zero-Covid regulations but improve the pandemic control measures, hinting that protracted lockdowns will be avoided. This has sent dollar back into gains this morning, with AUD and NZD leading the declines. GBPUSD also slid back to 1.1300 and EURUSD back at the 0.99 handle. Commodities rally Commodity screens all in the green on the back China reopening hopes. The Crude Oil (CLX2 & LCOZ2) price rose 5% to $92.61, its highest level since August after rising 5.4% last week. Iron Ore (SCOA, SCOZ2) is up 1.6% today $87.30 after gaining 8.3% last week. The Copper price (HGA, HGZ2) rose 7.8% today, after rising 7.5% last week.   What to consider Mixed US jobs report to keep the Fed on a tightening path US NFP headline gains of 261k were above expectations of 200k but slowed from last month’s 315k which was revised higher from 263k. Job gains were broad-based with strong gains in healthcare, professional and business services and manufacturing. Wage growth also held up strongly, coming in at 0.4% MoM in October from 0.3% MoM previously although a tad softer on a YoY basis at 4.7% from 5.0% YoY previously. However, the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7% from 3.5% (exp. 3.6%), although it was met with a 0.1% decline in the participation rate to 62.2%. However, with layoffs rising recently, especially in tech, it will be interesting to see how that impacts the headline NFP and the Fed tightening path in the months to come. Heightened anticipation of relaxation of the implementation of pandemic control in China Speaking at a meeting hosted by a U.S. investment bank last Friday, the former Chief Expert of Epidemiology of the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention said the relaxation of pandemic control had already started and more would come, citing the resumption of state visits, sports events (e.g. the Beijing Marathon this Sunday), and relaxing PCR test requirements and starting to charge for the tests. At a press conference last Saturday, China’s National Administration of Disease Control and Prevention reiterated adherence to the dynamic zero-Covid policy. This may dampen somewhat investors’ optimism about reopening. Nonetheless, the Chinese health officials pledged at the same press conference to improve the implementation of the pandemic control measures so as to avoid massive and protracted lockdowns. China’s approval of BioNTech vaccine for foreigners living in mainland China also stirred up some anticipation of the possibility of allowing the more effective BioNTech vaccine to be available eventually beyond foreign residents. Stocks of interest to watch First up this week, Champion Iron (CIA) goes ex-dividend today, along with Macquarie (MGQ). National Australia Bank (NAB) is due to report results on Wednesday 9th. Mosaic (MOS) a fertilizer giant reports on Monday in the US. Walt Disney (DIS) reports 9th November. On with Occidental Petroleum (OXY) and Constellation Energy (CEG) report as well. Note Oxy and CEG are some of the US' best performers this year). Ralph Lauren (RL) reports on Thursday.    For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.     Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/market-insights-today-7-nov-07112022
The German Purchasing Managers' Index, ZEW Economic Sentiment  And More Ahead

Maersk Expects The Eurozone Enter Into A Recession | iPhone's Demand Is Coming Down

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 07.11.2022 09:12
Summary:  Traders witnessed a wild session on Friday as the market decided that the US data would not add any further risk of a hawkish Fed for now, helping risk sentiment to rebound sharply as US treasury yields eased a bit lower. The US dollar was pummeled for sharp losses, particularly against commodity currencies that rebounded on chatter of China moving to ease Covid restrictions, only to see those hopes dashed over the weekend. Focus this week on US October CPI release this Thursday.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) US equities are holding up pretty well given the remarks on Wednesday from Fed Chair Powell and assessment by Larry Summers that the terminal rates probably should be closer to 6% than 5%. S&P 500 futures are trading around the 3,767 level with the index futures likely trying to attempt again to move to the 3,800 level, but our view is that tighter central bank policy will begin to impact US equities negatively again and the 3,600 level is our shorter-term target for S&P 500 futures. Euro STOXX 50 (EU50.I) European equities are up 13% from late September as European earnings have been better than expected and the energy situation has eased. But this optimistic view might be premature as the economic activity in the euro area is slowing down fast and the winter has not even started, so we do not know the true strength of the European energy market. Also, the idea that ECB will begin pausing is not credible as the inflationary pressures are very high and will force ECB to continue being more aggressive on policy rates. STOXX 50 futures are trading just above the 200-day moving average this morning at the 3,680 level, with some potential to move higher if the index futures can close above Friday’s close. But overall, we maintain that it is more likely that equities will begin to roll over here as central bank hawkishness on terminal rates will sink in. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIX2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) While China’s National Administration of Disease Control and Prevention reiterated its adherence to the dynamic zero-Covid policy at a press conference last Saturday, the health officials added that local governments should not unreasonably double down on the implementation and must ensure people’s livelihood and economic activities remain normal.  Investors took note of the above and recent signs of incremental flexibility in the implementation of pandemic control measures in China and saw the Hang Seng Index more than 3% higher as of writing. The resumption of large-scale sports events including the Beijing Marathon last Sunday, multinational sports events scheduled for 2023 such as Shanghai F1 and Hangzhou Asian Games, relaxation of PCR test requirements, increases in international flights, cancellation of circuit breaker for international flights, and approval of BioNTech vaccine for foreigners living in mainland China are among the factors cited by investors who anticipate gradual reopening in the coming months. Mainland A-shares’ reactions were more modest, with CSI300 climbing only 0.2%. FX: USD bounces back as China reasserts Zero Covid commitment after Friday’s huge sell-off The market absorbed Friday’s US data without further punishing US treasuries, as yields were capped and eased back. This saw the former USD strength reversing sharply to pronounced weakness Friday as risk sentiment also rebounded. Chatter late last week about China’s reopening added to brightening of sentiment. Commodity currencies had been supported with NZD leading the gains against the USD and being up over 2%. AUDUSD also surged above 0.6450 into the end of the week on hopes of a recovery in commodities demand. However, weekend reports from China’s Health Ministry confirmed that China will maintain its present zero-Covid regulations but improve the pandemic control measures, hinting that protracted lockdowns will be avoided. This has sent dollar back higher overnight, with AUD and NZD leading the declines, but this still appears merely a small consolidation of Friday’s weakening move. Focus this week on US CPI release on Thursday (more below). Gold (XAUUSD), silver (XAGUSD) and copper (HGZ2) … all raced higher on Friday, before giving back some of those gains overnight. The China reopening story gained its own momentum last week and while the official line has not changed, the tone has softened (see HK and China update above).  The extended rally despite a stronger-than-expected US report was driven by copper which recorded its best day since 2009, rallying close to 8% and in the process breaking through several key levels of resistance, thereby triggering some extra buying momentum from traders, not positioned for a bounce. The strong surge fed through to silver, up 7% on day, which found its own momentum above $20 and finally also Gold which had its biggest jump since March 2020. It may still be too early to call for a reversal given continued worries about the global economic outlook and Fed action, but Friday’s action will force a rethink of whether the sell-into-strength strategy is still valid. China developments, the dollar and incoming US data will provide most of the answers to this question.  Crude oil (CLZ2 & LCOF3) Crude oil trade lower following Friday’s strong gains with the market responding negatively to weekend headlines about zero-Covid policies being maintained in China. However, looking a bit deeper there is no doubt a softening approach is happening. The People’s Daily in an article on November 3 told people not to worry too much about “long Covid” ie the aftermath health problems from Covid while the health officials told local government not to make measures over stringent. With demand in China potentially starting to recover, the ill-timed OPEC+ production cut and EU sanctions against Russian crude is likely to keep the price risk focused to the upside, but with Brent failing to break above $98.75, and WTI above $93.65, the October highs, the market may spend the start of the week consolidating last week’s strong gains. US treasuries (TLT, IEF) US Treasury yields dropped back slightly on Friday as the US data was not seen stoking additional fears of the Fed intensifying its hawkish stance further for now, with this Thursday’s CPI weighing more in the balance than the mixed jobs report Friday. Focus is on the 4.32% top in the US 10-year treasury benchmark yield and the 3.90% low-water mark of the recent consolidation lower. What is going on? Mixed US jobs report US NFP headline gains of 261k were above expectations of 200k but slowed from last month’s 315k which was revised higher from 263k. Job gains were broad-based with strong gains in healthcare, professional and business services and manufacturing. Wage growth also held up strongly, coming in at 0.4% MoM in October from 0.3% MoM previously although a tad softer on a YoY basis at 4.7% from 5.0% YoY previously. However, the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7% from 3.5% (exp. 3.6%) on a rather weak Household Survey although it was met with a 0.1% decline in the participation rate to 62.2%. However, with layoffs rising recently, especially in tech, it will be interesting to see how that impacts the headline NFP and the Fed tightening path in the months to come. Apple lowers iPhone output by 3mn units The demand for iPhones is coming down and Apple is now announcing a cut of 3mn units as consumers are under pressure from inflation and might be extending the life of their old phones. Apple has recently hiked prices on some of its services aiming to offset the weakness in its hardware business. Meta to start layoffs according to WSJ Investors have been frustrated with Meta following the Q3 earnings release as Mark Zuckerberg has reinforced the image that he does not listen to the concerns of investors that Meta is spending too much capital on its metaverse bets. According to Wall Street Journal, Meta might have listened after all as the technology company is expected to begin laying off thousands of employees. Ryanair lifts passenger target If there is an airliner that can do well during a recession in Europe it is Ryanair and the first half result this morning is a bit better than expected and the airliner expects net income of €1-1.2bn in the FY23 (ending 31 March). The Danish shipping giant Maersk sees the world entering a recession Maersk cut its forecasts for container demand this year. The drop is expected to reach minus 2 to 4 %. This matters because the company is often seen as a barometer for global trade. This is explained by well-known factors we have mentioned several times here: high inflation across the board, structural energy crisis in Europe, the geopolitical tensions and higher cost of capital. All of this weighs on consumer purchasing power and can potentially cause a global recession. Maersk expects the eurozone to be already or to enter into a recession, and potentially the United States as well. At Saxo Bank, we share this view, especially regarding the recession risk in the eurozone. Last week, ECB governor Martins Kazaks (which is seen as a hawk) acknowledged that the eurozone recession is now the baseline. This was the first time that an ECB governing council member said that officially.  The number of penny stocks is increasing on Euronext Paris With the significant equity drop that started earlier this year, many stocks are now close to zero. In Euronext Paris, the number of listed companies with stock value below 0.01 euro has jumped in recent months. For instance: Pharnext (biopharmaceutical company), NFTY (NFT and blockchain marketing services), Safe (specialized in the design and manufacture of medical devices) etc. Retail investors need to be very careful regarding small caps investment (especially when the valuation of the company is below 100 million euros). There are a lot of stocks that are not liquid enough and can represent a high risk of losses. What are we watching next? US inflation to test the 8% level, watch core and stickier components Bloomberg consensus expects US October CPI to drop below the 8% mark and come in at 7.9% YoY from 8.2% previously, but still higher at 0.6% MoM from 0.4% in September. The core measure is also expected to ease slightly to 6.5% YoY, 0.5% MoM (prev. 6.6% YoY, 0.6% MoM) but still remain elevated compared to historical levels. Key to watch also will be the drivers of inflation, particularly the stickier shelter and services costs, which if stuck higher could move the December Fed funds future pricing more towards another 75bps rate hike, resulting in another round of selloff in equities and dollar gains. However, with another CPI report due before the next Fed meeting in December, market impact of this week’s report will likely remain restrained unless a major deviation from expectations is seen. For this week’s CPI data, we will be watching the USD, and bond yields, which may be expected to rally up if the data is hotter than expected. US mid-term elections tomorrow Pundits suggest that the Republicans have very strong odds of flipping the House of Representatives in their favour, while the odds look finely balanced for whether the Senate ends retaining the slim Democratic majorities. Republicans taking both houses has few immediate ramifications, as US President Biden has the presidential veto, but a stronger than expected Democratic showing that somehow sees them retaining the House and strengthening their Senate majority would be a game changer – opening for more policy dynamism (and inflation from fiscal stimulus) from the US over the next two years rather than the expected lame-duck presidency. Uncertainty is high as pollsters have had a hard time gathering accurate indications for the election results since Trump’s victory in 2016. Earnings to watch The Q3 earnings season is slowing down this week but there are still important earnings releases to watch in certain industries or equity themes. Today our earnings focus is Ryanair, Palantir, and SolarEdge. Palantir is part of the technology segment that has been hit hard on valuations and with revenue growth slowing down and a negative EBITDA in Q2 the pressure is on Palantir to deliver a credible path to profitability; analysts expect 21% y/y revenue growth. Solar panel growth is still high and SolarEdge is enjoying this tailwind with revenue expected to grow 57% y/y and EPS up 57% y/y to $1.46. Monday: Westpac Banking, Coloplast, Ryanair (see earnings review above), Activision Blizzard, BioNTech, Palantir Technologies, SolarEdge Technologies Tuesday: Bayer, Deutsche Post, KE Holdings, Nintendo, Walt Disney, Occidental Petroleum, Lucid Group, DuPont Wednesday: National Australia Bank, KBC Group, Genmab, Siemens Healthineers, E.ON, Adidas, Honda Motor, Coupang, Rivian Automotive, Roblox, DR Horton, Trade Desk Thursday: Brookfield Asset Management, Fortum, Engie, Credit Agricole, Allianz, Merck, Hapag-Lloyd, RWE, SMIC, Nexi, AstraZeneca, ArcelorMittal, Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy, Becton Dickinson, NIO Friday: Richemont Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0700 – Germany September Industrial Production Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app:   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-nov-7-2022-07112022
The Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge For Australia Rose More Than Expected

Australia’s Consumer Sentiment Dropped | USA: A Stronger Than Expected Democratic Showing

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 08.11.2022 08:39
Summary:  Equities extended their rebound from post-Powell lows on Monday with China reopening reports not taking any clear direction. US treasury yields jumped higher, but more so on a heavy corporate calendar rather than macro-driven, and dollar continued to slip for a second consecutive day. Asian economic data sending some warnings signs with China export/import growth turning red and Australian confidence dropping to fresh lows. US midterms ahead, and a clean Republican sweep can be further dollar negative. Earnings focus on Walt Disney in the day ahead. What’s happening in markets? The Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) rose with tech and energy leading gains Ahead of the U.S. midterm election, equity market sentiments maintained a risk-on tone. Both S&P 500 and NASDAQ rose about 1%.  Community services, energy, and information technology led gains while utilities were the largest loser in S&P 500. On corporate news, Meta (META:xnas) gained 6.5% after the company announced plans to cut staff. Viatris (VTRS:xnas) surged 13% after the pharma company agreed to acquire Oyster Point (OYST:xnas). Lyft (LYFT:xnas) plunged 15% in extended-hour trading after reporting weaker-than expected ridership growth. Tesla (TSLA:xnas), losing 5%, dragged the benchmarks indices most. US  treasury (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) edged higher on incoming supply Yields across the treasury curve rose around 6bps ahead of refunding auctions of the 3-year notes, 10-year notes, and 30-year bonds for a total of USD96 billion from Tuesday to Thursday. A rise of 16bps across the pond in the 2-year UK Gilt yield also added to the pressure on treasuries. Investors will be watching closely the U.S. mid-term election on Tuesday and CPI on Wednesday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIX2) China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) continued to rally on China reopening hopes Stocks in Hong Kong shrugged off the headlines about China’s National Administration of Disease Control and Prevention reiterating adherence to the dynamic zero-Covid policy over the weekend. Investors took note that the health officials added that local governments should not unreasonably double down on the implementation and must ensure people’s livelihood and economic activities remain normal.  In addition, the resumption of large-scale sports events, relaxation of PCR test requirements, increases in international flights, cancellation of circuit breaker for international flights, and approval of BioNTech vaccine for foreigners living in mainland China were among the factors cited by street analysts in their reports anticipating gradual reopening in the coming months. The Hang Seng Index rose for the second day in a row, finishing 2.7% higher. Financials outperformed, with HKEX (00388:xhkg) up 5.4%, HSBC (00005:xhkg) up 3.7%, and AIA (01299:xhkg) up 3.3%,  China property names surged on better-than-expected home sales data from some tier-1 cities. Country Garden (02007:xhkg), up 11%, was the top gainer in the Hang Seng Index. Despite Apple (AAPL:xnas) cutting iPhone production, Sunny Optical (02382:xhkg) jumped 11%. MMG (01208:xhkg) surged 16%, following the removal of blockage by locals to the company’s copper mine in Peru. Zinjin Mining (02899:xhkg), up 10.3%, announced to buy a 20% stake in Zhaojin Mining (01818:xhkg), up 9.7%.  China’s October trade data came in weaker than expected but it did not have much impact on the market on Monday. FX: Dollar’s decline extends despite rise in 10-year yields The US 10-year yields rose to last week’s post-Powell highs at 4.20%+, but the dollar tumbled for a second day in a row to drop to over one-week lows. Dollar decline was broad-based, against all G10 currencies barring the loonie. Gains were led by sterling, with GBPUSD above 1.1500 and EURGBP also sliding lower to 0.8700. EUR benefitted from the weaker dollar which helped EURUSD rise above parity from lows of 0.9900 even as President Lagarde reiterated her usual tone noting inflation must be brought back down to 2%. Midterms bring further volatility risks to FX, with a clean Republican sweep likely being dollar negative as yields will likely plunge amid speculation of a hamstrung administration limiting scope for fiscal support.    Crude oil (CLX2 & LCOZ2) lower despite dollar weakness Oil prices ended lower as hopes of China easing its zero covid policy faded, even as near-term supply constraints continued to limit the slide. OPEC has begun reducing output in line with the agreement to reduce quotas by 2mb/d at its last meeting. The market is also facing the deadline for European imports of Russian oil before sanctions kick in on 5 December. This has left fuel inventories tight, with Brent crude oil futures still below $100 per barrel and WTI futures staying above $91. Meanwhile, US natural gas futures soared on cold weather fears in the West and the Northeast. December natural gas futures contracts climbed as much as 12.8% to $7.22 per MMBtu before trimming the advance later. Copper (HGZ2) trimmed last week’s gains Copper reversed back to $3.60 after racing to $3.70+ levels on Friday on China reopening optimism. However, reports that China would stick with its adherence to strict virus controls, made the metal reverse some gains. Weak economic data also weighed on sentiment with China’s imports of Copper ore down and overall imports also unexpectedly falling for the first time in more than two years. Gold (XAUUSD) held steady despite the lower USD, and it may still be quite early to call a reversal in the short-term downtrend.   What to consider US mid-term elections to spook market volatility Pundits suggest that the Republicans have very strong odds of flipping the House of Representatives in their favour, while the odds look finely balanced for whether the Senate ends retaining the slimmest of Democratic majorities. Republicans taking both houses has few immediate ramifications, as US President Biden has the presidential veto, but a stronger than expected Democratic showing that somehow sees them retaining the House and strengthening their Senate majority would be a game changer – opening for more policy dynamism from the US over the next two years rather than the expected lame-duck presidency. Uncertainty is high as pollsters have had a hard time gathering accurate indications for the election results since Trump’s victory in 2016. China’s October trade data disappointed China’s exports in USD terms declined 0.3% Y/Y in October, much worse than the growth of 4.5% expected in the Bloomberg survey and the 5.7% in September. It was the first decline in export growth since May 2020 and might point to a turning point of deceleration in exports as the global economy slowed. If adjusting for inflation in export prices, the decline of China’s exports would be even larger in the real term. Imports in USD terms declined 0.7% Y/Y (vs consensus 0.0%, Sept: +0.3%). Bank of Japan affirms easy policy, but not without some mention of a future exit The Bank of Japan released summary of opinions of the October policy meeting today, broadly reaffirming the easy monetary policy stance. Still some members stuck a slightly different tone, noting that Japan's inflation likely to remain fairly high as there are signs service prices starting to rise, and “cannot rule out chance prices will sharply overshoot forecasts.” Still, sustained wage gains remained the base case for Japan to achieve its price target and members agreed that there was no immediate need to tweak monetary policy. Importantly, one member noted that the Bank of Japan must continue examining how a future exit from ultra-low interest rates could affect financial markets, in a rare mention of an exit. Big slump in Australian business and consumer confidence Australia’s consumer sentiment tumbled to its lowest level in 2.5 years and business confidence also weakened as higher interest rates and surging inflation stoke caution over the economic outlook. NAB business confidence plunged to 0 from 5 in September, while the Westpac consumer confidence index was down to 78 for November from 83.7 previously. This bodes ill for spending ahead, suggesting RBA’s caution on rate hikes may continue to prevail despite the continued hot CPI reports. Walt Disney earnings ahead Walt Disney is scheduled to report on Tuesday with analysts expecting Q4 (ending 30 September) revenue growth of 15% y/y but EBITDA at $3bn down from $3.86bn in Q3 highlighting the ongoing margin pressure. Layoffs are coming to Meta and Apple cuts iPhone production The demand for iPhones is coming down and Apple is now announcing a cut of 3mn units as consumers are under pressure from inflation and might be extending the life of their old phones. Apple has recently hiked prices on some of its services aiming to offset the weakness in its hardware business. Meanwhile, investors have been frustrated with Meta following the Q3 earnings release as Mark Zuckerberg has reinforced the image that he does not listen to the concerns of investors that Meta is spending too much capital on its metaverse bets. According to Wall Street Journal, Meta might have listened after all as the technology company is expected to begin laying off thousands of employees. Read our equity strategist Peter Garnry’s note here.   For our look ahead at markets this week - Listen/watch our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/market-insights-today-8-nov-08112022
Tesla Does Not Say Much Directly About The Demand Situation, Ally Financial Sees A Slowdown In Car Loans

Investors Are Worried That Elon Musk Is Losing His Focus | The Eurozone Recession Can Dampen Investors’ Hopes

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 08.11.2022 09:40
Summary:  Markets are trying to build some positive energy as the volatility in the US treasury market has eased in recent days, although Fed tightening expectations remain near the peak for the cycle ahead of another important CPI release on Thursday, certainly the macro event of the week. Today is mid-term election day in the US, where the Republicans are expected to take back at least the House of Representatives.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) US equities gained 0.8% pushing above the 3,800 level and the 50-day moving average. The resistance level is up at around the 3,900 level with the 3,724 level being the short-term support level to watch. For US equities the biggest event to watch is today’s Midterm elections in the US which could change the political landscape in favour of the Republicans flipping the House. But for years polls have been terrible in predicting anything on US politics, so we remain neutral on the outcome. The US 10-year yield is advancing to 4.22% adding headwinds on equity valuations. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIX2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) The China reopening trade took a pause in Hong Kong and the mainland bourses as domestically transmitted new cases in the mainland doubled to 7,455. Guangzhou, the capital city of the Southern Guangdong province reported 2,377 new cases and launched mandatory testing in 9 of the 11 districts of the city and extended the lockdown of Haizhu district to Friday. Hang Sang Index fell 0.7% and CSI300 dropped 1.3%. FX: USD near important support ahead of Thursday’s US CPI The US dollar traded in a narrow range yesterday, with EURUSD near parity this morning after trading solidly above yesterday, but not yet threatening the 1.1094 pivot high from late October. Elsewhere, GBPUSD has traded briefly above 1.1500 but is still bottled up below the key range high above 1.1600, while AUDUSD is closer to the cusp of a break-out as it has traded as high as 0.6491, just shy of the 1-month pivot high of 0.6522 and the AUD likely keying off developments in China (hopes for an easing of Covid restrictions, commodities following through higher after last week’s rally, etc.) It feels like the next move for the greenback will key off the Thursday October CPI release, as CPI releases have sparked considerable volatility in recent months. Crude oil (CLZ2 & LCOF3) Crude oil remains in consolidatory mode after failing to find additional buying interest during Monday’s temporary break above the October high in Brent at $98.75 and $93.65 in WTI. The themes driving markets remain the same with supply worries driven by OPEC+ production cuts and EU sanctions against Russian oil from December 5 being offset by concerns about the health of the global economy and China’s prolonged battle with Covid with daily infections hitting a six-month high. Despite this latest acceleration in cases, the market has started to price in a lifting of restrictions sometimes early next year, an event Goldmans estimate could add between $6 and $15 upside risks to prices.  Today, the US Midterm elections is likely to steal some of the attention ahead of API’s weekly stock report tonight. Meanwhile, US natural gas (NGZ2) futures soared beyond $7/MMBtu on cold weather fears in the West and the Northeast before trimming the advance overnight. US treasuries (TLT, IEF) The MOVE index, a measure of the implied volatility of the US treasury market, has dipped sharply in recent days, posting its lowest levels since early September, perhaps as the market feels there are few surprises left in store from the Fed now that Fed funds expectations have reached above 5.00% and US yields at the longer end have remained bottled up in the 3.90%-4.30% range. The October US CPI release on Thursday is the next test for the US treasury market. What is going on? Bank of Japan affirms easy policy, but not without some mention of a future exit The Bank of Japan released summary of opinions of the October policy meeting today, broadly reaffirming the easy monetary policy stance. Still some members stuck a slightly different tone, noting that Japan's inflation likely to remain fairly high as there are signs service prices starting to rise, and “cannot rule out chance prices will sharply overshoot forecasts.” Still, sustained wage gains remained the base case for Japan to achieve its price target and members agreed that there was no immediate need to tweak monetary policy. Importantly, one member noted that the Bank of Japan must continue examining how a future exit from ultra-low interest rates could affect financial markets, in a rare mention of an exit. Tesla shares hit the lowest level since June 2021 Tesla shares were 5% lower yesterday as investors are getting more nervous about CEO Elon Musk intense focus on Twitter after he acquired the social media platform. Many advertisers have pulled back on advertising on Twitter leaving the company losing around $4-5mn a day with sizeable debt due. Investors are worried that Elon Musk is losing his focus but also that he will be forced to sell Tesla shares to fund Twitter operations. Nintendo still sees strong demand for Switch The gaming company lifts its FY net income projection to JPY 400bn from previously JPY 340bn on strong demand with the company seeing little impact on its sales from global inflation. Big slump in Australian business and consumer confidence Australia’s consumer sentiment tumbled to its lowest level in 2.5 years and business confidence also weakened as higher interest rates and surging inflation stoke caution over the economic outlook. NAB business confidence plunged to 0 from 5 in September, while the Westpac consumer confidence index was down to 78 for November from 83.7 previously. This bodes ill for spending ahead, suggesting RBA’s caution on rate hikes may continue to prevail despite the continued hot CPI reports. The Eurozone Sentix Index improved substantially, albeit from a awful level The Eurozone Sentix Investor confidence index was out at minus 30.9 in November versus 38.3 in October. This is a strong improvement. But the index was actually at its lowest level last month since March 2020. The other components increased too. The current situation improved to minus 29.5 while the expectations index jumped to minus 35.5. The uptick is clearly not a reversal trend. This is more of a rebalancing. Investors were too pessimistic in recent months regarding the evolution of the European energy crisis. The risk of energy rationing was overestimated, for instance. High gas storage and better weather will help avoid this nightmare scenario. This does not mean that the improvement in the Sentix index will continue, however. The eurozone recession will likely dampen investors’ hopes.  U.S. used car prices continue to move lower According to the Manheim index, used car prices continue to crash, with a year-over-year change at minus 10.4 % in October. This is the worst drop since December 2008. This matters because until the summer used car prices were one of the main contributors to U.S. inflation. Cryptocurrencies The crypto market is in negative territory today after growing concerns about the liquidity of the crypto exchange FTX - specifically tied to its hybrid investment fund/market maker Alameda Research. The selloff in cryptos was partly triggered by the nosedive of the FTX token, which together with the Solana token makes up a notable portion of Alameda's balance sheet. What are we watching next? US mid-term elections today Pundits suggest that the Republicans have very strong odds of flipping the House of Representatives in their favour, while the odds look finely balanced for whether the Senate ends retaining the slim Democratic majority or moves to Republican control, which would only require one more Republican seat. There are few immediate ramifications if Republicans take both houses, as US President Biden has the presidential veto, but a stronger than expected Democratic showing that somehow sees them retaining the House and strengthening their Senate majority would be a game changer – opening for more policy dynamism (and inflation from fiscal stimulus) from the US over the next two years rather than the expected lame-duck presidency. The latter is a very unlikely scenario, but uncertainty is high as pollsters have had a hard time gathering accurate polls, especially for specific states, for every election since Trump’s victory in 2016. Earnings to watch Today’s US earnings focus is Walt Disney which is expected to deliver revenue growth of 15% y/y but also significant margin pressure with gross margin expected at 32.5% the lowest Q1 2021. EPS is expected at $0.51 down from $0.91 in Q2. Monday: Westpac Banking, Coloplast, Ryanair (see earnings review above), Activision Blizzard, BioNTech, Palantir Technologies, SolarEdge Technologies Tuesday: Bayer, Deutsche Post, KE Holdings, Nintendo, Walt Disney, Occidental Petroleum, Lucid Group, DuPont Wednesday: National Australia Bank, KBC Group, Genmab, Siemens Healthineers, E.ON, Adidas, Honda Motor, Coupang, Rivian Automotive, Roblox, DR Horton, Trade Desk Thursday: Brookfield Asset Management, Fortum, Engie, Credit Agricole, Allianz, Merck, Hapag-Lloyd, RWE, SMIC, Nexi, AstraZeneca, ArcelorMittal, Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy, Becton Dickinson, NIO Friday: Richemont Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0900 – UK Bank of England’s Chief Economist Huw Pill to speak 1100 – US Oct. NFIB Small Business Optimism 1600 – UK BoE’s Pill to speak 1700 – EIA's Monthly Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO) 2030 – API Weekly Report on US Oil Inventories 0130 – China Oct. PPI/CPI Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher     Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-nov-8-2022-08112022
At The Close Of The New York Stock Exchange 728 Securities Closed In The Red

The Dow Jones Hit A Monthly High, The S&P 500 Index Also Rose

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 09.11.2022 08:00
At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 1.02% to hit a monthly high, the S&P 500 index grew 0.56%, the NASDAQ Composite index climbed 0.49%. Dow Jones Amgen Inc was the top performer among the components of the Dow Jones in today's trading, up 15.37 points or 5.55% to close at 292.39. Quotes Boeing Co jumped by 4.71 points (2.86%), closing at 169.62. American Express Company rose 2.19% or 3.22 points to close at 150.20. The worst performers were Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc, which shed 0.30 points or 0.78% to end the session at 38.29. The Walt Disney Company was up 0.53 points (0.53%) to close at 99.90, while Chevron Corp was down 0.27 points (0.15%) to close at 185. 34. S&P 500 The top performers in the S&P 500 index today were SolarEdge Technologies Inc, which surged 19.13% to 251.73, Expeditors International of Washington Inc, which gained 9.06% to close at 104.40, as well as Welltower Inc, which increased by 8.22% to end the session at 66.51. The least gainers were Take-Two Interactive Software Inc, which shed 13.68% to close at 93.57. Shares of Medtronic PLC lost 6.25% to end the session at 80.19. Quotes of International Flavors & Fragrances Inc decreased in price by 4.96% to 91.41. NASDAQ Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Taskus Inc, which rose 37.22% to hit 22.01, GrowGeneration Corp, which gained 35.05% to close at 4.47, and Skywater Technology Inc, which rose 31.60% to end the session at 11.37. The least gainers were Bioventus Inc, which shed 57.51% to close at 3.00. Shares of R1 RCM Inc lost 49.76% and ended the session at 7.41. Quotes of Athersys Inc decreased in price by 43.36% to 1.28. The numbers On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (1834) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (1256), while quotes of 125 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 1,894 stocks fell, 1,771 rose, and 259 remained at the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 4.89% to 25.54. Gold Gold futures for December delivery added 2.15%, or 36.20, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for December delivery fell 2.83%, or 2.60, to $89.19 a barrel. Brent futures for January delivery fell 2.39%, or 2.34, to $95.58 a barrel. Forex Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD climbed 0.56% to hit 1.01, while USD/JPY fell 0.73% to hit 145.55. Futures on the USD index fell 0.46% to 109.49.     Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/300198
The French Housing Market Is More Resilient | The Chance Of Republicans Winning The Senate Is Up

The French Housing Market Is More Resilient | The Chance Of Republicans Winning The Senate Is Up

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 09.11.2022 08:31
Summary:  Risk sentiment remained upbeat despite the fallout in the crypto world as equities focused on the results of the midterm elections. Bitcoin made fresh YTD lows in the wake of Binance's acquisition of FTX. But US yields and the dollar tumbled, helping Gold and Silver to run higher breaking some key resistances. Another surge in China’s Covid cases still kept a check on gains in oil prices, and focus today will be on inflation data from China. Disney’s disappointing results further add to this quarter’s earnings misery, and Rivian and Roblox report today. What’s happening in markets? The Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) closed higher in a choppy session A political gridlock with a divided Congress after mid-term elections was historically positive for the equity market. S&P 500 gained nearly 1.4% and Nasdaq 100 rose as much as 2% at one point before paring all the gains and more in the early afternoon, dragged by a selloff in the crypto space. Stocks managed to bounce in the late afternoon and recover some of the early gains, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 finishing a volatile session 0.6% and 0.8% higher respectively. Lyft (LYFT:xnas) tumbled 23% after weak rider growth was reported the day before. Walt Disney (DIS:xnys) plunged 6.4% in extended-hours trading on earnings miss which was dragged by weak streaming results. US  treasury (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) yields fell on hopes for political gridlock and strong demand in the 3-year auction US treasury yields fell 4bps to 9bps across the curve with the best performance in the 5-year to 10-year segment, with the 10-year yield down 9bps to to 4.12%. Anticipations of political gridlock in Washington that historically restrained fiscal policies saw buying in treasuries. Demand in the 3-year auction was solid with awarded yields stopped at more than 1bp richer from the time right before the auction. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIX2) China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) took a pause as Covid cases surged The China reopening trade took a pause in Hong Kong and the mainland bourses as domestically transmitted new cases in the mainland doubled to 7,455. Guangzhou, the capital city of the Southern Guangdong province reported 2,377 new cases and launched mandatory testing in 9 of the 11 districts of the city, and extended the lockdown of Haizhu district to Friday. Hang Sang Index fell 0.2% and CSI300 lost 0.7%. China’s passenger vehicle sales growth slowed in October to +7.3% Y/Y but new energy vehicles sales, rising 75% Y/Y, remained solid. However, EV stocks declined, with NIO (09866:xhkg) falling the most, down 9% following analysts cutting price targets on the stock. Among China internet names, Alibaba (09988:xhkg) underperformed, losing 3.7%. Macau casino stocks were the top performers, rising 2% to 4%, following Macau’s decision to relax entrance rules for some visa holders starting Sunday. FX: Weaker dollar and lower yields amid an expected Republican sweep Expectations of a split Congress saw lower US yields and further USD selling on Tuesday, and eyes are now on US CPI due later this week. Meanwhile, the crypto fallout in the wake of FTX being acquired by Binance sparked a wave of volatility. Yen gained with USDJPY falling below 146. EUR gained a firmer footing above parity amid the latest ECB rhetoric including from de Guindos who noted they will continue raising rates to levels that ensure price stability, while ECB's Nagel said he will do his utmost to make sure the ECB does not let up in the inflation fight and said that large rate hikes are necessary. GBPUSD also reclaimed 1.15 handle. Crude oil (CLZ2 & LCOF3) slid with API inventory build WTI futures slid below the key $90 mark on Tuesday and Brent slid to $95 despite a weaker dollar as a fresh surge in China’s Covid cases further sparked concerns on whether China will part ways with its Zero Covid policy. Xinjian reported its fourth highest number of new cases nationally on Monday. Inner Mongolia, which was sealed off in early October, saw cases jump to almost 1800. New infections in the province of Henan almost doubled. Meanwhile, supply concerns eased with API inventory build coming in larger than expected with crude oil inventory up 5.6mm barrels last week and gasoline inventory also coming in higher. Still, US EIA also cut its 2023 oil production estimate to 12.31mm barrels/day, suggesting structural supply concerns are here to stay. Copper (HGZ2), Gold (XAUUSD) and Silver (XAGUSD) The weakness in the dollar drove metals higher. Copper led the base metals sector higher on dwindling inventories amid positive signs for demand, challenging the September high of $3.6925 once again, ahead of $3.78. Bold move higher in gold and silver as well last night with renewed USD weakness, with the most notable being gold up at one-month highs breaking through $1680/85. A break above $1735 would likely confirm a low in the market. Silver finding some technical resistance here at $21.50 but the break above $21.15 has opened up for a move to $22.25.   What to consider Republicans likely in a strong position in the US mid-term elections Looking at the latest odds on Predictit, the chance of Republicans taking the House is up to 95% from 90% earlier. The chance of them winning the Senate is up to 83% from 74% earlier. All the closest races have tilted towards the Republicans as well. It can take several days to confirm which party will prevail, especially in the Senate. More so if we go to recounts, where the votes cast in a close race are retabulated to verify the initial results. A split Congress, as we wrote yesterday, lowers the expectation of fiscal support measures thereby leading to investors expecting a sooner Fed pivot again. This can spark a further tactically rally in equities and will likely be USD negative. Risk of a contagion in the crypto market After a weeklong dispute between crypto exchanges Binance and FTX, the former is set to acquire FTX, stating a significant liquidity crunch for FTX. This may fuel further contagion throughout the crypto market, as not only FTX but also Alameda Research - the highly linked trading firm to FTX - may be insolvent. Our crypto analyst expects increased volatility in the next couple of days and weeks. Further, this may lead to contagion across the crypto market as experienced in May and June this year, so in our view, traders and investors in the crypto market should act cautiously in the foreseeable future. Likewise, Bitcoin's correlation with NASDAQ has been record-high throughout this year - and relatively high today. Please be aware that the development of crypto may impact particularly NASDAQ. Read more here. China’s PPI and CPI are expected to slow in October China’s PPI is expected to fall -1.5% Y/Y in October vs +0.9% Y/Y in September, due to the high base last year resulting from increases in material and energy prices. Unlike other major economies, CPI in China is expected to slow to +2.4% Y/Y in October from +2.8% in September. Walt Disney reported disappointing FYQ4 results Walt Disney reported FYQ4 revenue at USD20.2 billion, about USD1 billion below street consensus estimates. Adjusted EPS declined to 30 cents, missing substantially the Bloomberg consensus of 51 cents. Subscriptions rose to 164.2 million in FYQ4, up 12 million from 152 million in FYQ3, beating expectations. The operating loss in the direct-to-consumer segment, driven by the Disney+ streaming service, however, jumped to USD1.47 billion in FYQ4 from USD1.05 billion in FYQ3. The management told analysts that they expect the direct-to-consumer segment losses “to narrow going forward and that Disney+ will still achieve profitability in fiscal 2024, assuming [they] do not see a meaningful shift in the economic climate.” France’s housing market is cooling down The combination between high inflation across the board (CPI hovering close to 6% on a year-on-year basis), lower purchasing power and higher interest rates is pushing housing prices down in France. According to the real estate promoter Century21 (one of the leading player in this market), real estate prices went down under the threshold of 10.000 Є per square meter in Paris. The deceleration in prices is however limited so far. Contrary to Tel Aviv, Amsterdam and Hong Kong, the parisian housing market is not in a situation of a speculative bubble. Prices are overvalued however. Expect prices to go down a bit more due to a drop in solvent demand. But we won't see a large decrease in prices as it is currently happening in several major cities in the United States, for instance. The French housing market is more resilient for mostly two main reasons: fixed interest rates and a comparatively low household debt (it represents about 124% of net disposable household income versus a peak at 249% in Denmark). For our look ahead at markets this week - Listen/watch our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/market-insights-today-9-nov-09112022
Technical Analysis: Gold/Silver Ratio Still On The Rise

Gold, Silver And Copper All Resumed Their Upside Push | The US Dollar (USD) Fell Sharply

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 09.11.2022 09:51
Summary:  Market sentiment improved further yesterday before dipping slightly overnight, as China Covid cases are on the rise, pushing back against hopes for a lifting of Covid restrictions. In the US mid-term elections, Democrats are slightly outperforming expectations, possibly set to retain control of the Senate even if Republicans look likely set to take narrow control of the House of Representatives.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) US equities exhausted themselves yesterday pulling back from intraday highs to close around the 3,835 level. Sentiment has weakened overnight amid the ongoing impact from the US midterm elections, bad Disney and the fallout from the implosion of FTX in the crypto industry with S&P 500 futures trading down to the 3,829 level. Tesla shares continued lower yesterday, and Elon Musk announced overnight in a filing that he had sold 19.5mn shares in Tesla, and the negative momentum could broaden as many retail investors have sizeable exposure to the stock. The next big event for the US equity market is tomorrow’s October inflation figures which are expected to show core inflation is easing a bit. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIX2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) The China reopening continued to fade as new Covid cases surged further to 8,176 yesterday. Hang Seng Index retreated 1.6% and CSI 300 slid 0.8%. China’s PPI declined 1.3% Y/Y in October due to falls in energy and materials prices and weaknesses in metal processing. CPI inflation was also weaker than expected and fell to +2.1% in October from 2.8% in September on weak consumer demand and property prices. Share prices of Chinese developers however surged, following the Chinese authorities pledged to provide credit support, including credit insurance and bond buying, to private enterprise developers. FX: USD remains on back foot after testing important support. Thursday CPI key focus The US dollar fell sharply yesterday, with EURUSD testing the pivot high of 1.0094 before pulling back slightly into this morning and USDJPY had a look toward the pivotal 145.00 level without breaking through. Elsewhere, AUDUSD tested above the 0.6522 pivot late yesterday before pulling back again, likely on concerns that rising China Covid cases are frustrating hopes that a shift away from lockdowns will provide a further boost to the commodity market. Lower US treasury yields yesterday helped drive the US dollar lower and are a key focus over the Thursday October US CPI release, as CPI releases have sparked considerable volatility in recent months. Crude oil (CLZ2 & LCOF3) slid on API inventory build and China’s Covid Challenges WTI futures trade back below $90 and Brent near $95 after a fresh surge in China’s Covid cases sparked concerns over whether China will part ways with its Zero Covid policy. Also weighing on prices was the API reporting a 5.6m build in crude and 2.6m build in gasoline stocks. On the supply the EIA made another downgrade to its forecast for US 2023 production, down 0.7m b/d since March to 12.3m b/d driven by labor shortages, high equipment costs, supply-chain constraints and not least commitment to profits over production. Precious and industrial metals pause following another upside push After pausing on Monday, gold, silver and copper all resumed their upside push yesterday with the moves being triggered by renewed dollar weakness and softer bond yields ahead of tomorrow’s US October CPI release. A selloff in cryptocurrencies potentially helped get the ball rolling, especially gold which found fresh momentum buying on the break above $1680/85 area. Technical resistance levels in silver at $21.50 and copper at $3.69 together with the EURUSD hitting resistance at the pivot high of 1.0094 paused the rally. Gold, up 83 dollars in three sessions, will be watching $1735 closely as a break above could be signalling an end to the month-long correction. Crypto market getting nervous After a weeklong dispute between crypto exchanges Binance and FTX, a letter of intent was signed yesterday for Binance to acquire FTX, stating a significant liquidity crunch for FTX. The announcement was initially a brief relief for the crypto market, but it was followed by a steep crypto sell-off, likely dragging major equity indices such as S&P 500 down as well. Nervousness is spreading throughout the crypto markets in fear of further contagion as we saw earlier this year, and a higher degree of volatility should be expected in the crypto markets. Read more here. US treasuries (TLT, IEF) US Treasury yields fell yesterday all along the curve ahead of the macro data point of the week – tomorrow's US October CPI release. Focus on the 3.90% yield on the 10-year treasury yield to the downside and 4.3% area cycle high to the upside in the wake of that release. What is going on? Disney sees margin compression in Q4 Disney+ delivered Q4 subscribers of 164.2mn vs est. 162.5mn but EPS came in at $0.30 vs est. $0.51 as energy costs and wage pressures are pressuring the operating margin. Disney+ is still on track to be profitable in the FY24 (two years from now). Disney’s Q4 revenue was $20.2bn vs est. $21.3bn. Shares were 7% lower in extended trading. Tesla shares fall another 5% and Elon Musk sells $4bn of shares The rumours about the big losses at Twitter and that Elon Musk would be forced to fund its operations were true as he filed overnight that he had sold $4bn of Tesla shares pushing the price down by another 2% in extended trading. Negative momentum could easily extend here with Tesla shares sitting a crucial support area back from March and June 2021. US Mid-term elections avoid the “red wave” of Republican gains, although Dems likely to lose House The final results are too early to call, but the Democrats may possibly retain control of the US Senate, with one race in Georgia possibly requiring a run-off as was the case in the 2020 election before any final outcome is known. Final tallies are not available for the House of Representative results, but the lean in the results makes it likely that the Republicans will take control of the House by a fairly comfortable margin (NYT estimates 225-210 this morning). Democrats losing the House means that the last two years of the Biden presidency will be “lame-duck”, with no real ability to shape new policy. At the same time, given the situation coming into this election, with soaring inflation and poor popularity for the sitting president, the Republican performance looks quite weak. As well, if the Democrats do retain control of the Senate, Republican-driven legislation will be unlikely to reach Biden’s desk, meaning he won’t have to formally veto their bills. France’s housing market is cooling down The combination between high inflation across the board (CPI hovering close to 6 % on a year-on-year basis), lower purchasing power and higher interest rates is pushing housing prices down in France. According to the real estate promoter Century21 (one of the leading players in this market), real estate prices went down under the threshold of 10.000 Є per square meter in Paris. The deceleration in prices is, however, limited so far. Contrary to Tel Aviv, Amsterdam and Hong Kong, the Parisian housing market is not in a situation of a speculative bubble. Prices are overvalued, however. Expect prices to go down a bit more due to a drop in solvent demand. But we won't see a large decrease in prices as it is currently happening in several major cities in the United States, for instance. The French housing market is more resilient for mostly two main reasons: fixed interest rates and a comparatively low household debt (it represents about 124 % of net disposable household income versus a peak at 249 % in Denmark). What are we watching next? US October CPI release tomorrow is macro event of the week Many recent US CPI releases have sparked considerable market volatility, not least the September release last month which strongly surprised by showing core inflation reaching a new cycle high of 6.6% year-on-year. Tomorrow’s October CPI release, ex Fresh Food and Energy is expected to come in at +0.5% month-on-month and +6.5% year-on-year, with the headline expected at +0.6%/7.9%, which would be the first sub-8.0% year-on-year print since February. Earnings to watch Today’s US earnings focus Rivian Automotive and DR Horton. The electric vehicle industry is in high growth phase and Rivian is also expected to report revenue of $561mn up from $1mn a year ago as the company ramps up production of its delivery vans. DR Horton is expected to deliver FY22 Q4 (ending 30 September) revenue growth up 25% as the tailwind from the backlog is still feeding through, but revenue growth y/y is expected to collapse to –6% y/y in the current quarter so the outlook is the key watch in this earnings release. Wednesday: National Australia Bank, KBC Group, Genmab, Siemens Healthineers, E.ON, Adidas, Honda Motor, Coupang, Rivian Automotive, Roblox, DR Horton, Trade Desk Thursday: Brookfield Asset Management, Fortum, Engie, Credit Agricole, Allianz, Merck, Hapag-Lloyd, RWE, SMIC, Nexi, AstraZeneca, ArcelorMittal, Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy, Becton Dickinson, NIO Friday: Richemont Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0800 – Hungary October CPI 0800 – US Fed’s Williams (Voter) to speak 0905 – Australia RBA’s Bullock to speak Poland Announces Interest Rate 1200 – Mexico Oct. CPI 1300 – UK Bank of England’s Haskel to speak 1530 – EIA's Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report 1630 – UK Bank of England’s Cunliffe to speak 1700 – World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) 0001 – UK Oct. RICS House Price Balance 0100 – US Fed’s Kashkari (Voter 2023) to speak Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-nov-9-2022-09112022
USD/JPY Weekly Review: Strong Dollar and Yen's Resilience in G10 Currencies

The Number Of Securities That Fell Exceeded The Number Of Those That Closed In Positive Territory

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 10.11.2022 08:25
At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 1.95%, the S&P 500 fell 2.08%, and the NASDAQ Composite index fell 2.48%. Dow Jones Merck & Company Inc was the top gainer among the components of the Dow Jones in today's trading, up 0.09 points (0.09%) to close at 101.59. Quotes of McDonald's Corporation fell by 0.61 points (0.22%) to end trading at 277.79. Procter & Gamble Company lost 0.33 points or 0.24% to close at 136.48. The least gainers were Walt Disney Company, which fell 13.15 points or 13.16% to end the session at 86.75. Chevron Corp was up 4.00% or 7.41 points to close at 177.93 while Dow Inc was down 3.97% or 1.97 points to close at 47.68. . S&P 500 Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Akamai Technologies Inc, which rose 6.19% to hit 89.08, Gen Digital Inc, which gained 6.01% to close at 22.92, and also shares of Bio-Rad Laboratories Inc, which rose 5.67% to end the session at 403.49. The least gainer was Walt Disney Company, which shed 13.16% to close at 86.75. Shares of Occidental Petroleum Corporation shed 9.22% to end the session at 67.93. Quotes Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd fell in price by 8.74% to 15.77. NASDAQ Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Merrimack Pharmaceuticals Inc, which rose 212.75% to 12.51, Outset Medical Inc, which gained 29.90% to close at 14.90, and also shares of Neurobo Pharmaceuticals Inc, which rose 29.60% to close the session at 1.62. The least gainers were Clovis Oncology Inc, which shed 71.62% to close at 0.28. Shares of Telos Corp lost 68.84% and ended the session at 3.44. Quotes of Athersys Inc decreased in price by 56.45% to 0.56. Numbers On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2539) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (564), while quotes of 97 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,848 stocks fell, 900 rose, and 221 remained at the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 2.15% to 9/26. Gold Gold futures for December delivery lost 0.44% or 7.60 to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for December delivery fell 3.77%, or 3.35, to $85.56 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for January delivery fell 3.15%, or 3.00, to $92.36 a barrel. Forex Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD was down 0.62% to hit 1.00, while USD/JPY was up 0.52% to hit 146.41. Futures on the USD index rose 0.75% to 110.37.   Relevance up to 03:00 2022-11-11 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/300382
Meta Is Cutting Discretionary Spendings And Extending Its Freeze On Hiring

Meta Is Cutting Discretionary Spendings And Extending Its Freeze On Hiring

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 10.11.2022 09:12
Summary:  Risk sentiment took a beating again as the midterms fever faded with a lack of a Republican wave, and focus shifted back to the crypto turmoil and continued surge in Covid cases in China. Tech layoffs also took another step up with Meta slashing 13% of its workforce. USD gained despite lower US yields as it is likely turning more risk-sensitive than yield-sensitive, but focus on US CPI will add to some caution ahead of the release. A hotter-than-expected core print will likely bring the focus back on Fed’s hawkishness. What’s happening in markets? The Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) dropped on crypto selloff, earnings disappointment, lower oil prices, and midterm elections S&P 500 plunged 2.1% and Nasdaq fell 2.4%. The sell0ff was board based with all 11 sectors of the S&P 500 in the red. The energy sector was the worst performer, falling 4.9% as crude oil prices down nearly 4% on rising US inventory levels. The collapse in crypto prices deepened, following Binance’s decision to walk away from its short-lived takeover bid for the ailing FTX. Robinhood Markets (HOOD:xnas) fell 13.8% as investors were concerned if FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried might liquidate his 7.5% stake in Robinhood. Disney (DIS:xnys) plunged 13.2% on disappointing earnings. Meta Platforms (META:xnas) gained 5.2% after the company announced to layoff 13% of its employees to cut costs. US treasury (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) yields fell in a mixed session U.S. treasuries, in particular, the frontend of the curve were supported by selloff in equities and crypto, dovish comments from Fed Evans, and strong rallies in the European bond markets, seeing 2-year yields down 7bps to 4.58%, and 10-year yields falling 3bps to 4.09%. European bond yields dropped on the news that Russia was withdrawing its troops from Kherson, a Ukrainian regional capital city annexed by Russia less than two months ago. Chicago Fed president Charles Evans, who is retiring, said in an interview that there are “benefits to adjusting the pace as soon as” the Fed can and the Fed should not keep raising rates by a large amount every time on disappointing economic data. The 10-year auction did poorly with weak demand from investors but the market managed to shrug it off and had a strong close. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIX2) China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) The China reopening trade continued to fade on Wednesday as new domestically transmitted cases surged further to 8,176 the day before. Hang Seng Index retreated 1.2% and CSI 300 slid 0.9%. China’s CPI fell to 2.1% Y/Y and PPI declined 1.3% Y/Y in October, signaling weak domestic demand. Share prices of Chinese developers however surged, following Chinese authorities saying that they were expanding an existing credit support programme by RMB250 billion to help private enterprises, including developers, in raising debts, by providing debt insurance or bond buying. Country Garden (02007:xhkg), up 13.9%, Longfor (00960:xhkg), up 4%, were top performers in the Hang Seng Index. After trading 1% to 4% lower during the Hong Kong session, China Internet names continued to face selling pressure overnight in New York, with ADRs of Alibaba (09988), Tencent  (00700:xhkg) ,and Meituan (03690:xhkug)  each falling around 3% from their Hong Kong closing levels. FX: USD gains return as risk sentiment deteriorates The USD was back on the front foot on Wednesday ahead of the critical US CPI data due today. US midterms still ended in a political gridlock, even though a Republican wave was avoided. However, limited implication on policy means market focus can return to other key events, such as the crypto turmoil and further rise in China’s Covid cases. US 10-year yields dropped below 4.1% but it appears that the USD is not more risk-sensitive rather than being yield-sensitive. Geopolitics turned calmer with Russia retreating from the only Ukrainian regional capital captured, Kherson, but that brings some risk of new escalations as Putin gets desperate. Focus on US CPI however brought some weakness back in the DXY in early Asian hours with USDJPY back below 146.20. GBPUSD bounced back after a brief slide below 1.1350 and the EUR bounced back higher from parity. Crude oil (CLZ2 & LCOF3) WTI futures dipped further below $90/barrel mark, now touching the $85 handle, while Brent moved lower to sub-$93. Oil prices declined as the EIA reported US crude stocks rose by 3.9 million barrels to the highest since July 2021. This was offset by tightness in the fuel product markets. Gasoline inventories fell by 900kbbl, and distillate fuel stockpiles fell by 521kbbl. Meanwhile, sustained rise in Covid cases in China continued to take a hit on the demand outlook. New cases in Beijing jumped to the highest level in more than five months. Of particular concern was the number of infections found outside quarantine, suggesting the virus is still circulating through the community and would likely delay the easing of Zero Covid policies. Wheat (ZWZ2) prices lower, along with Corn, after USDA report The USDA released it’s November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, which led to mixed but mostly lower grain prices. While the overall wheat consumption outlook was raised, USDA said demand may drop in some places, including Indonesia and Sri Lanka, due to high prices. Wheat prices plunged 2.5%. The agency also lifted its soybean output and stockpiles outlook, but robust export demand lifted prices. Meanwhile, USDA expects to see the seventh-largest corn crop on record this year, with a new estimate of 13.93 billion bushels.   What to consider? US midterms avoided a Republican wave Even with votes still being counted and runoffs yet to come to determine the US Senate majority, the midterm election didn't bring the red wave that was expected. Republicans are inching towards control of the House, but with a far narrower margin than what was predicted. Meanwhile, Democrats are likely to keep their majority in the Senate but the outcome won’t likely be confirmed for a while as Georgia heads to a runoff on December 6. The end result is still a political gridlock, much as expected, but with far smaller market implications given lack of a firm policy direction. US inflation to test the 8% level, watch core and stickier components Bloomberg consensus expects US October CPI to drop below the 8% mark and come in at 7.9% YoY from 8.2% previously, but still higher at 0.6% MoM from 0.4% in September. The core measure is also expected to ease slightly to 6.5% YoY, 0.5% MoM (prev. 6.6% YoY, 0.6% MoM) but still remain elevated compared to historical levels. Key to watch also will be the drivers of inflation, particularly the stickier shelter and services costs, which if stuck higher could move the December Fed funds future pricing more towards another 75bps rate hike, resulting in another round of selloff in equities and dollar gains. However, there is another CPI report due before the next Fed meeting in December, and we are going into today’s release with a weak risk sentiment following the crypto meltdown seen this week. This suggests that even a print that matches expectations, or is above it, will likely bring another selloff in equities and further support for the dollar. Binance walked away from FTX acquisition, another plunge in Bitcoin The contagion in the crypto and equities we mentioned yesterday is already here, and getting worse as latest developments suggest that Binance backed away from its earlier pledge, tweeting Wednesday afternoon that it would not pursue the acquisition of FTX. It cited due diligence and a reported US investigation into the exchange. Bitcoin plunged below $16,000, , while Ether followed and dipped to its lowest price since July, barely hanging on to the $1,100 level. China is in disinflation China’s PPI declined 1.3% Y/Y in October due to falls in energy and materials prices and weaknesses in metal processing. CPI inflation was also weaker than expected and fell to +2.1% in October from 2.8% in September on weak consumer demand, falling residential costs, and declines in vegetable prices. Meta to layoff 13% of its workforce Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg announced the social platform’s plan to layoff over 11,000 employees, about 13% of its workforce. Zuckerberg also said Meta is cutting discretionary spendings and extending its freeze on hiring through Q1 2023. The company reaffirmed its Q4 revenue guidance of USD30-32.5 billion, in line with expectations. Capex for 2023, according to the Company, will be in the range of USD34-37 billion, at the low end of prior guidance of USD34-39 billion.   For our look ahead at markets this week - Listen/watch our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/market-insights-today-10-nov-2022-10112022
Saxo Bank Podcast: The Risk Of An Escalation In The US-China Confrontation, The Risk Of An Escalation In The US-China Confrontation And More

The Russia Has Announced The Intention To Withdraw Its Troops | Hopes For A Covid Zero Exit In China Fades

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 10.11.2022 09:22
Summary:  Markets are increasingly spooked by the liquidity pressure in the crypto space, as the major crypto exchange FTX.com and its associated trading house Alameda Research may be set to go bust without a multi-billion dollar rescue, and as total market cap in crypto currencies has plunged over $100 billion over the last month. Elsewhere, the focus was meant to be on today’s US October CPI release. What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) US equities saw a hit to sentiment yesterday as Binance walked away from the deal to save the crypto exchange FTX setting in motion a plunge in cryptocurrencies. One of the largest shareholders in FTX, Sequoai Capital, is marking down its investment to zero suggesting little faith in the company and its ability to function. The risk-off moves spilled over into equity market with Tesla leading the declines among the mega caps down 7% with US President saying that Elon Musk relationships with foreign powers could be a national security issue. S&P 500 futures took out gains over the previous two sessions closing at 3,755 but the index futures are attempting to rebound this morning. Note the critical support level at 3,727 which could come into play later today if we get a negative surprise on the US inflation figures suggesting more sticky inflation. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIX2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Following the risk-off sentiments spilling over from the crypto space and then global equities, Hong Kong and mainland China stocks declined, with Hang Seng down 2% and CSI 300 0.6% lower. China EV and Internet stocks are the top losers.  Among Hang Seng Index constituents, LINK REIT (00823:xhkg) was the performer, gaining more than 2%. AAC (02018), Apple’s acoustic product supplier, surged 5.7% on earnings beat and analysts expecting the company gaining market shares from its arch-rival after the latter losing orders from a key foreign client (most likely Apple).  FX: USD finds bids on weak risk sentiment. US October CPI release key focus later today The US dollar clawed back some of its losses as cratering crypto prices are seeing widening contagion, and rising Covid cases in China continue to drive concerns that further lockdowns are on the way. The weakest currencies were those normally associated with risk sentiment, like the smaller G10 currencies, as AUDUSD trades this morning not far above 0.6400 after a spike to 0.6550 at the beginning of the week. Overall USD direction remains in play as the USD is somewhat down, but by no means out and today’s US October CPI to theoretically set the tone, although a liquidity crisis in crypto that continues to drive contagion elsewhere could yet steal the spotlight in the near term, with poor liquidity generally associated with USD strength. A weak US treasury auction yesterday is also a concern on that front (more below). Crude oil (CLZ2 & LCOF3) Trades lower for a third day as hopes for a Covid zero exit in China fades after the country increased restrictions in a key manufacturing hub and new cases in Beijing jumped to the highest level in more than five months. WTI has returned to the $85 handle, down 9% from Monday’s peak, while Brent trades sub-$93. In addition, the market has also been hurt by the loss of risk appetite filtering through from the carnage in cryptos and after the EIA reported US crude stocks rose by 3.9 million barrels to the highest since July 2021. This was somewhat offset by tightness in the fuel product markets with gasoline inventories dropped to an eight-year low. Focus on China, the general level of risk appetite signaled through the dollar and today’s US CPI print for October.  Precious metals hold gains ahead of today’s US CPI print Gold trades above $1700 for a second day with shallow correction attempts since Tuesday's surge so far pointing to underlying support. However, with most of that currently being provided by a drop in Treasury yields and a softer dollar, today’s US CPI print for October will be watched closely. Another upside surprise may cause a temporary drop before potentially supporting prices as the market will start wondering whether the FOMC will be successful in getting inflation control. Some support also emerging from the chaos across the crypto market where the risk of contagion to other coins from the FTX fallout remains elevated. Gold support at $1682 and silver at $21 followed by $20.27. Crypto market: another plunge in crypto as Binance walks away from FTX acquisition  The contagion in the crypto and equities we mentioned yesterday is already here, and getting worse as latest developments suggest that Binance backed away from its earlier pledge, tweeting Wednesday afternoon that it would not pursue the acquisition of FTX. It cited due diligence and a reported US investigation into the exchange. Bitcoin plunged below $16,000, while Ether followed and dipped to its lowest price since July, barely hanging on to the $1,100 level. According to a research note from JPMorgan the crypto market is right now facing a cascade of margin calls and liquidity disappearing in the system. US treasuries (TLT, IEF) US Treasury yields are sharply lower this morning, with the 2-year treasury yield closing below 4.60% yesterday, the lowest since the hawkish Fed Chair Powell press conference last Wednesday. Weak risk sentiment and contagion from the melt-down in crypto markets may finally be driving safe haven flows into what is traditionally the world’s most liquid asset: UYS treasuries. The 10-year treasury benchmark yield edged below 4.10% after a very weak 10-year auction, with bidding metrics the worst in years. The US Treasury is set to auction 30-year T-bonds today. What is going on? Wheat (ZWZ2) prices lower, along with Corn (ZCZ2), after USDA report The USDA released its November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, which led to mixed but mostly lower grain prices. While the overall wheat consumption outlook was raised, USDA said demand may drop in some EM countries due to high prices. Wheat prices plunged 2.5% with additional selling from the announcement Russia is moving its troops out of Kherson, a development that may clear the way for more crop shipiments out of Ukraine. The agency also lifted its soybean output and stockpiles outlook, but robust export demand lifted prices. Meanwhile, USDA expects to see the seventh-largest corn crop on record this year, with a new estimate of 13.93 billion bushels. Foxconn still sees high demand for high-end electronics  The electronics maker, and the biggest supplier to Apple, reported Q3 results today with operating profits and revenue beating estimates. The company still sees strong demand for consumer electronics at the high-end of the market, but sees overall consumer electronics falling in Q4 y/y. US earnings recap: Beyond Meat and Rivian The EV delivery van maker Rivian missed estimates on Q3 revenue yesterday due to supply constraints, but the EPS loss of $1.57 was less than estimated at $1.86. The EV maker still sees 2022 production target at 25,000 vs est. 26,166. Rivian shares gained 8% in extended trading hours. Beyond Meat missed big on both revenue and EBITDA, but tries to calm investors by putting out a positive cash flow level around the second half of 2023. Russia said to be set to pull troops from embattled Kherson  In the hardest fought area of the war after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Russian side has announced the intention to withdraw its troops to the Eastern side of the river after an intense battle to maintain control of the strategic city, which is the closest major city to the Crimean Peninsula and would bring many Russian targets, including key supply routes from Crimea, within range of Ukrainian artillery if Ukraine takes control of Kherson. UK October Home Price Survey shows massive deceleration in UK housing  The RICS House Price Balance has been tumbling in recent months as mortgage rates have spiked on the overall rate rise, but also as spreads have widened due to by poor liquidity in the market. The positive 30% reading in September was already a sharp drop from the very strong levels above 50% just two months prior, and the October survey was expected to show +19% (still shownig prices generally rising). Instead, it plunged all the way to –2%, suggesting that UK housing market pricing is decelerating at a record clip, with deeper negative readings ahead that will impact overall UK confidence. What are we watching next? US October CPI release today suddenly looking less pivotal? The crypto panic has quickly stolen focus from the US CPI data release here, possibly to a sufficient degree that even an inflation print that is solidly below the expectations could fail to spark notable relief across markets, as weak liquidity concerns possibly keep the US dollar firm and equity markets weak even if yields ease lower. The ex-Fresh Food and Energy number is expected to come in at +0.5% month-on-month and +6.5% year-on-year, after the multi-decade high of 6.6% YoY in September, with the headline expected at +0.6%/7.9%, which would be the first sub-8.0% year-on-year print since February.) Earnings to watch Today’s US earnings focus is NIO which will be latest test for the EV market as maybe providing information on the factory situation in China amid rising Covid cases. The Chinese market is the most important market for Tesla so a dire outlook from NIO could translate into negative sentiment on Tesla shares. Thursday: Brookfield Asset Management, Fortum, Engie, Credit Agricole, Allianz, Merck, Hapag-Lloyd, RWE, SMIC, Nexi, AstraZeneca, ArcelorMittal, Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy, Becton Dickinson, NIO Friday: Richemont Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 1330 – US Oct. CPI 1330 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 1400 – US Fed’s Harker (voter 2023) 1400 – Poland Central Bank Governor Glapinski news conference 1530 – EIA’s Weekly Natural Gas Storage Change 1730 – US Fed’s Mester (Voter 2022) to speak 1800 – US Treasury auctions 30-year T-bonds 1830 – US Fed’s George (voter 2022) to speak 1900 – Mexico Central Bank Rate Announcement     Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-nov-10-2022-10112022
RBI's Strategic INR Support: Factors Behind India's Stable Currency Amidst Global Challenges

The Positive Close Of The New York Stock Exchange, A Significant Part Of The Indices Increased

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 11.11.2022 08:00
At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 3.70% to a one-month high, the S&P 500 rose 5.54% and the NASDAQ Composite rose 7.35%. Dow Jones  Salesforce Inc was the top gainer among the components of the Dow Jones in today's trading, up 14.24 points or 10.02% to close at 156.30. Quotes of Apple Inc rose by 12.00 points (8.90%), ending trading at 146.87. Home Depot Inc rose 24.95 points or 8.70% to close at 311.70. Shares of McDonald's Corporation led the decline, losing 1.91 points (0.69%) to end the session at 275.88. Merck & Company Inc was down 0.30 points (0.30%) to close at 101.89 while Amgen Inc was up 0.47% or 1.36 points to close at 291. .01. S&P 500 Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Invesco Plc, which rose 17.85% to hit 18.75, Caesars Entertainment Corporation, which gained 17.83% to close at 50.62, and shares of T. Rowe Price Group Inc, which rose 16.36% to close the session at 124.65. The least gainers were McKesson Corporation, which shed 4.12% to close at 370.32. Shares of Cardinal Health Inc shed 2.79% to end the session at 77.93. Quotes of Altria Group decreased in price by 2.19% to 44.22. NASDAQ Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Fast Radius Inc, which rose 156.19% to hit 0.26, SHF Holdings Inc, which gained 85.78% to close at 3.79, and also shares of EpicQuest Education Group International Ltd, which rose 73.79% to close the session at 1.79. The least gainers were Apyx Medical Inc, which shed 60.45% to close at 1.74. Shares of Veru Inc lost 53.56% and ended the session at 6.97. Quotes of AGBA Acquisition Ltd decreased in price by 50.89% to 5.50. Numbers On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (2830) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (347), while quotes of 80 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 3,100 companies rose in price, 694 fell, and 216 remained at the level of the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 9.81% to 23.53, hitting a new monthly low. Gold Gold futures for December delivery added 2.68%, or 45.95, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for December delivery rose 0.55%, or 0.47, to $86.30 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for January delivery rose 0.90%, or 0.83, to $93.48 a barrel. Forex Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD rose 2.03% to 1.02, while USD/JPY shed 3.97% to hit 140.62. Futures on the USD index fell 2.55% to 107.65.     Relevance up to 03:00 2022-11-12 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/300576
Crude Oil Ended Higher | Initial Jobless Claims Rose Marginally

Crude Oil Ended Higher | Initial Jobless Claims Rose Marginally

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 11.11.2022 08:26
Summary:  A softer US CPI print sent the equity markets skyrocketing in an extreme reaction, but there was some pushback against dovish expectations from Fed speakers and WSJ’s Timiraos, highlighting that a 50bps rate hike at the December Fed meeting is still in play. Dollar weakness fueled gains across the metals space, but oil market remained volatile on concerns around China’s covid cases even as the authorities urged targeted measures will remain in place. UK GDP due in the day ahead before focus turns to G20 meetings next week. What’s happening in markets? The S&P 500 (ESZ2) jumped 5.5% and Nasdaq 100 (NQZ2) soared 7.5%, staging the biggest rally in two years US equities surged the most since 2020 on a softer-than-expected CPI report. S&P 500 gained 5.5% and Nasdaq 100 soared 7.5%. The gains were board-based. All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 rose, with the information technology, real estate, and consumer discretionary sectors leading the charge higher. Semiconductor names surge, Marvel Technology (MRVL) up 16.1%, Nvidia (NVDA:xnas) up 14.3%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD:xnas) up 14.3%.  Amazon (AMZN:xnas) surged 12%, Meta (META:xnas) gained 10.3% and Apple (AAPL:xnas) climbed 8.9%. The shift of sentiment from risk-off to risk-on saw the crypto stabilize and Bitcoin rally 13%. US treasury (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) soared, yields tumbling 22 to 30bps across the curve Treasuries jumped in price and yields plunged on slower-than-expected CPI data. Large buying first concentrated on the 2-year and the 5-year notes. The yield curve bull-steepening in initially, with the 2-10 spread narrowed 8bps to minus-41bps at one point. However, the long ends rallied strongly in the afternoon following a strong 30-year bond auction. The curve reversed and became more inverted with 2-10-year finishing the session at minus-52 bps. At the close, 2-year yields fell 25bps to 4.33% and 10-year yields tumbled 28bps to 3.81%. On Fedspeak, Cleveland Fed President Mester said “services inflation, which tends to be sticky, has not yet shown signs of slowing” and she views “the larger risks as coming from tightening too little”. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly remarked “it was indeed good news that inflation moderated its grip a bit” but “one month of data does not a victory make”. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIX2) China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) retreated on Covid outbreaks Hong Kong and China stocks retreated on Thursday as China’s daily new domestic Covid cases came in above 8,000 second day in a row and Guangzhou extended lockdown in one of its districts. Hang Seng Index dropped 1.7% and CSI 300 lost 0.8%. China Internet and EV stocks underperformed. NIO (0988:xhkg) fell 13.2% on a bigger-than-expected loss in Q3 and a Q4 guidance below analysts’ expectations. Overnight in U.S. hours, Hang Seng Index futures jumped 4.6% after U.S. stocks soared on softer CPI data. ADRs of Alibaba (09988:xhkg), Meituan (03690:xhkg), and Tencent (00700) surged around 7% to 9% in New York hours. FX: Massive dollar selloff in the aftermath of the US CPI release The Dollar Index saw its greatest losses in a single day since 2009, falling to lows of 107.7 after the release of that softer-than-expected US CPI. The biggest gainer on the G10 board was JPY, no surprises there, given its yield-sensitive nature and the plunge in US yields. USDJPY broke below 141 although it has rebounded to 141.68 in the Asian morning. If we do see hawkish Fed comments in the coming days/weeks, some of this rally in the JPY is likely to be unwound but overall the trend in USDJPY remains biased to the downside now with most of the interest rate expectations already in the market. GBPUSD was also a big gainer as it surged to the 1.17 handle, but a test lies ahead with UK GDP release today likely to confirm the onset of a recession (read preview below). Crude oil (CLZ2 & LCOF3) volatile amid dollar weakness and China's Covid concerns Crude oil ended higher in a volatile session as earlier concerns of weak demand were overtaken by the broader market rally in response to lower inflation and the weakness in the US dollar. Concerns however remain on China’s Covid cases with Beijing reporting its highest number of cases in a year, which kept the gains restrained. WTI futures rose above $86/barrel while Brent went above $94 before retreating later. Cooler US inflation prompts gains across metals The weaker USD eased pressure on the base metals complex, with copper rising more than 2%. This was boosted by reports coming out of a Politburo Standing Committee meeting that suggest Beijing would take more targeted measures to avoid damage to the economy. If China’s Zero covid measures remain targeted, this could shift focus back to supply issues and dollar weakness. Copper (HGZ2) broke the September high of $3.6925, and is now testing resistance at $3.78. Gold (XAUUSD) also broke above the double top at 1730, likely suggesting that the bottom is in place. Silver (XAGUSD) rose to $21.83 but has since returned to the resistance turned support at $21.50.   What to consider? Softer US inflation, but what does it mean for the Fed? US CPI was softer than expected across the board, as headline M/M and Y/Y printed 0.4% (exp. 0.6%, unchanged) and 7.7% (exp. 8.0%, prev. 8.2%), respectively, while the core metrics came in at 0.3% M/M (exp. 0.5%, prev. 0.6%) and 6.3% Y/Y (exp. 6.5%, prev. 6.6%) on a Y/Y basis. Shelter prices still remained hot while the used vehicle prices declined by 2.4% M/M. While the inflation still remains high and far from Fed’s 2% target, it can be expected that the trend is lower. Markets cheered the release, expecting a downshift in Fed’s rate hike trajectory which has already been communicated at the last FOMC meeting. December Fed rate hike pricing is still close to 50bps, while the terminal rate projections have slid lower to 4.9% for May 2023. However, it is worth noting that there is one more labor market report and another CPI report due before the FOMC’s Dec 13-14 meeting. Fed speakers pushed back on the market rally The kind of market reaction we have seen to the soft CPI print in the US yesterday confirms that investors still remain on edge expecting a Fed pivot. This can prove to be counterproductive, as easing of financial conditions can derail this downtrend in inflation and reverse the less hawkish path that Fed is expected to take in the coming months. The Cleveland Fed’s Loretta Mester said that, while she was encouraged by October’s data, she sees bigger risks from tightening too little than too much. Kansas City Fed President Esther George said monetary policy “clearly has more work to do”, while the Dallas Fed’s Lorie Logan said earlier that inflation has a long way to go before it reaches the central bank’s target. They also noted it may be time to slow down the pace of hikes, however, but that it shouldn’t be interpreted as easing policy. Equally importantly, WSJ's Timiraos tweeted, "The October inflation report is likely to keep the Fed on track to approve a [50bps rate hike] next month. Officials had already signaled they wanted to slow the pace of rises and were somewhat insensitive to near-term inflation data". Easing financial conditions will likely drive the Fed speakers to a further hawkish tilt in the coming days. US jobless claims still underscore a tight labor market Initial jobless claims rose marginally to 225k from 218k, and above the expected 220k. Meanwhile, continued claims also exceeded consensus to print 1.493mln (exp. 1.475mln) from, the revised higher, 1.487mln. While this still continues to show a tight labor market in the US, it may be worth watching how it moves in the coming months especially after the wave of tech sector layoffs that we have seen in the past few weeks. The latest in the Crypto space Bloomberg reports a balance sheet hole of $8bn for FTX. Likewise, the Wall Street Journal reports that Alameda Research owes FTX about $10bn. Reuters says that the loan to Alameda Research was equal to at least $4bn. Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), however, went to Twitter to give an explanation. He goes on to talk about two major mistakes that he has made, one being that he underestimated the demand for sudden liquidity by clients withdrawing funds. In terms of liquidity, SBF further says that: “FTX International currently has a total market value of assets/collateral higher than client deposits (moves with prices!). But that's different from liquidity for delivery--as you can tell from the state of withdrawals. The liquidity varies widely, from very to very little.” Remember, that this is contrary to the story by Bloomberg and likely the Wall Street Journal and Reuters story. It now seems plausible that FTX has a serious hole in its balance sheet”, though, hard to judge anything at this stage given the amount of rumors and unconfirmed information floating around. What remains clear is that any liquidity event will unlikely remain isolated as cascading margin calls and contagion effects are likely to be felt beyond the crypto space. UK GDP to confirm the onset of a recession UK’s Q3 GDP is scheduled for release today and the first quarterly negative print of the current cycle is expected to be seen. Consensus forecast is seen at 2.1% YoY, -0.5% QoQ, significantly lower than the second quarter print of 4.4% YoY, 0.2% QoQ. August GDP data had already begun to show a negative print with -0.3% MoM and the trend will only likely get worse in September, exacerbated by a one-off factor relating to Queen Elizabeth II’s funeral in the month, which was a national holiday. The economy is already facing a cost of living crisis, and both fiscal and monetary policy have to remain tight in this very tough operating environment. Technically, a recession may still be avoided as activity levels picked up in October, but still it will remain hard for the UK to dodge a recession going into 2023. This suggests there maybe some downside for the sterling, especially as the market refuses to cater to the Bank of England’s warning that the current expectations of terminal rate may be too steep. Credit growth in China slowed in October China’s new aggregate financing fell to RMB908 billion in October, much lower that the RMB1,600 billion expected in the Bloomberg survey and the RMG3,527 billion in September. The growth of outstanding aggregate financing slowed to 10.3% in October from 10.6% in September. New RMB loans declined to RMB615 billion in October, below the 800 billion consensus estimate and much smaller than the RMB2,470 billion in September. New RMB Medium to long-term loans to corporate fell to RMB462 billion as loan demand was weak. China’s Politburo Standing Committee met to discuss pandemic control policies  On Thursday, President Xi and the rest of the Politburo Standing Committee had a meeting to discuss its policies on pandemic control. While the statement from the meeting reiterated adherence to the dynamic zero-Covid policy, it also highlighted the push for vaccination and treatments and called on government officials to implementation of control measures more scientifically targeted and precise and to avoid doubling down on each layer of execution.   China’s Singles’ Day this Friday, Nov 11 Investors will watch closely Alibaba, JD.com, and other online retailers’ sales on Singles’ Day this Friday to gauge the strength of China’s private consumption. Analysts are expecting slower sales growth as recent data indicated slower user growth across online shopping platforms.   For our look ahead at markets this week - Listen/watch our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/market-insights-today-11-nov-2022-11112022
FX Daily: Upbeat China PMIs lift the mood

Meeting Of U.S. President Biden And China’s President Xi | Chinese Methods To Contain The Pandemic

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 14.11.2022 08:38
Summary:  China released a set of 20-item guidelines on Friday to fine-tune the country’s pandemic control measures aiming at minimizing disruption to people’s livelihood and the economy. The move added fuel to the post-US CPI risk-on sentiments and saw Hong Kong and China stock soaring with Hang Seng Index up 7.7% and commodities prices higher. S&P 500 rallied another 0.9% on Friday and finished the week nearly 6% higher. Over the weekend, China’s financial regulators rolled out a 16-point plan to boost the property sector. What’s happening in markets? The S&P 500 (ESZ2) and Nasdaq 100 (NQZ2) extended post-CPI gains US stocks rallied for the second day, adding to the dramatic surge after the softer CPI prints on Thursday. S&P 500 gained 0.9% and Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.9%. The energy sector, up 3.1%, was the top performer in the S&P 500 as WTI crude oil price bounced 2.8% on China’s easing of pandemic control measures despite a rise in the number of new Covid cases. Gaming and casino stocks and consumer discretionary names also gained from optimism about China’s fine-tuning of Covid policies. FTX filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Friday and its CEO and founder resigned. Coinbase (COIN:xnas), the largest US crypto exchange, bounced 12.8% on Friday after being dragged down by the FTX fiasco earlier in the week. Robinhood (HOOD:xnas), in which FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried has a 7.5% stake, surged 12.9% after steep declines on Tuesday and Wednesday. Over the week, S&P 500 gained 5.9% higher and NASDAQ 100 surged 8.8%. US  treasury (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) markets were closed for holiday The US treasury cash markets, after the massive 25bp-30bp  post-CPI drops in yields on Thursday, took a break to observe the Veterans’ Day holiday on Friday. Treasury note and bond futures were little-changed. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIX2) China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) soared on China’s fine-tuning of pandemic control measures Hang Seng Index soared 7.7% on the post-CPI rally in the U.S. stock market and the easing of pandemic control measures in China. Following a meeting of the Chinese Communist Party’s new Politburo Standing Committee on Thursday, China’s health authorities issued 20 new measures on Friday to fine-tune pandemic control policies including relaxing quarantine and PCR testing requirements and prohibiting excessive lockdowns. China Internet stocks soared, with Alibaba (09988:xhkg) up 12.4%, Tencent (00700:xhkg) up 11.7%, Meituan (03690:xhkg) up 12.5%, JD.Com (09618:xhkg) up 16.1%, and Kuaishou (01024:xhkg) up 17.5%. EV maker NIO (09866:xhkg) jumped 20.4% despite missing Q3 earnings. XPeng (09868:xhkg) surged 16%. Macao casino stocks gained 8% to 9%. China consumption names also climbed on China’s easing of pandemic control. Share prices of China property developers were squeezed massively higher, with Country Garden (02007) soaring 35% and Longfor (00960 ) jumping 29%. The debt-laden CIFI (00884:xhkg) soared 72.2%. Subsequently, Bloomberg ran a couple of news reports saying China is rolling out a 16-point rescue plan to boost the ailing property markets and struggling developers. CSI300 gained 2.8%/ Australia’s ASX200 (ASXSP200.1) rises ~4% last week. Stock poised to extend rally on China’s property measures All eyes will be on Australia tech stocks following the stellar run in the US, however Aussie tech stock gains may not shoot the lights be muted today after Australia’s 10-year bond yield rose seven basis points to 3.72%.  However, Commodity stocks will be a focus; on Covid hopes, with the Copper price up 4.1%, while precious metals are higher and aluminum had its best day since 2009. In New York BHP rose 3.6%, gapping up and rising above its 200-day moving average which could be seen as bullish sign, and also means local listed counterpart will likely follow. Lithium stocks will also be in the spotlight, with Australia’s biggest Allkem (AKE) and Pilbara (PLS) a focus with sentiment picking up and the stocks already trading in record-high territory ahead of China reopening. FX: the US Dollar continued to plunge in the aftermath of a softer CPI The US dollar index plunged 1.7% on Friday, bringing the weekly loss to 4%. After falling the post-CPI decline of 3.8% on Thursday, USDJPY fell another 1.5% to 138.81 on Friday. Over the week, USDJPY fell from 1.4662 to 138.81, a 5.3% decline. EURUSD surged 1.4% on Friday, bringing its weekly gain to nearly 4%. The Chinese renminbi strengthened further against the US dollar, benefiting from China’s easing of pandemic control in addition to the impact in the aftermath of the US CPI. USDCNH declined from 7.15 to 7.09 on Friday.The Aussie dollar is gaining on the back of China's property sector rescue package. China introduced 16 property measures to address the developer liquidity crisis; from blanket debt extensions, to loosening down-payment requirements for homebuyers. On top of that that, China’s eased covid restrictions; shortening to five-day quarantines, which is aimed at reducing the economic impact of Covid Zero, rather than relaxing restrictionsThe Australian dollar jumped 1.4% on Friday and 3.7% over the week. While the market still awaits further easing developments, the market is buoyed on forward looking hopes that the AUD will continue to be bid on commodity demand picking up. The iron ore (SCOA) price is back above US$90 after rising 6% last week, the copper price lifted about 5% last week, and the lithium price is also higher, with carbonate prices up 118% year to date.  Crude oil (CLZ2 & LCOF3) WTI crude oil gained 2.8% to finish the week at USD88.96 on China’s easing of pandemic control and a sharply lower dollar but it remained stuck inside its established trading range. In addition, as the fuel product market has been tightening in Europe and the US due to low inventories of diesel and heating oil, the crude oil price is likely to find support here and the tendency is more to the upside. OPEC issues its monthly market report on Monday so all eyes will be on that. Copper (HGZ2) rose nearly 5% on Friday on China easing Covid policies Benefiting from China fine-tuning Covid policies and a sharply lower US dollar, copper rose 4.7% on Friday and nearly 7% for the week to USD3.91. It is poised to challenge a key resistance zone near $4 in the near term. As noted by Ole Hansen, Saxo’s Head of Commodity Strategy, while the prospect of copper mines in Central America, South America, and Africa temporarily increasing production is significant, the outlook for copper prices remains positive since global electrification will continue to drive the demand for copper higher. Globally, especially in Europe, the need to reduce reliance on Russian-produced natural gas, oil, and the use of coal as energy sources will continue to build momentum for accelerated electrification. But enabling the grid to handle the additional baseload will require significant new copper-intensive investment in the coming years. In addition, producers such as Chile, the world's largest copper supplier, are not optimistic about their ability to increase production of copper mines in the medium and long term amid declining ore grades and water shortages. The slowdown of the Chinese economy is temporary, and the Chinese government's economic stimulus measures are focused on infrastructure and electrification, which require a lot of industrial metals, especially copper. Gold (XAUUSD) Gold climbed 0.9% to USD1771 on Friday, with the biggest weekly gain since March. In addition to a softer US CPI on Thursday, according to Ole Hansen, supporting the underlying improvement in sentiment was the recently published Gold Demand Trends Q3 2022 update from the World Gold Council. The update outlines how central bank demand reached a quarterly record of nearly 400 tons, thereby offsetting a 227 tons outflow from bullion-backed ETFs. What to consider? China issued 20 guidelines to fine-tune its dynamic zero-Covid policy measures China’s health authorities released 20 guidelines on Friday to fine-tune the country’s pandemic control measures, a day after the Politburo Standing Committee, led by President Xi, held a meeting to discuss how to best contain the pandemic. The key measures in the guidelines include reducing the number of quarantine days for close contacts from 10 days to 8 days, relaxing some centralized quarantine to home quarantine, limiting PCR testing, prohibiting excessively extending lockdowns, promoting vaccination and treatments, and prohibiting local authorities from shutting down production, schools, and transportation without proper approval. At a press conference on Saturday, the National Health Commission emphasized the fine-tuning was optimization measures based on scientific findings but not representing a shift in the principles of dynamic zero-Covid policy. China’s financial regulators rolled out a 16-point plan to boost the property sector The People’s Bank of China and the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly issued a notice to financial institutions with 16 measures to address the liquidity squeeze faced by property developers through measures including the relaxation of previously imposed redlines restricting banks from lending over certain ceilings and calling for financial institutions to treat private enterprise developers equally with state-owned enterprises. A busy week of Fedspeak kicked off by Fed Governor Waller After the sharp easing of financial conditions after the massive asset price movements after the release of the CPI, helped by lower bond yields, higher stock prices, and lower US dollar, the market is eagerly monitoring if Fed officials will push back on pivot speculations in order to bring financial conditions back to tighter levels. Governor Waller previously proposed that the Fed should not pause until the monthly core PCE substantially falls below 3% on an annualized basis. Biden and Xi are set to meet on the sidelines of the G20 summit U.S. President Biden and China’s President Xi will hold a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Indonesia on Monday. It will be the first time they meet in person since Biden took the presidential office in January 2021. The White House said the meeting could last a couple of hours. For our look ahead at markets this week - Listen/watch our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/market-insights-today-14-nov-2022-14112022
In Crypto, You Could Prove You Own A Private Key Without Revealing It

FTX And More Than 100 Affiliates Filed For Bankruptcy | The Aussie Dollar (AUD) Has Gained Ground

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 14.11.2022 10:03
Summary:  Market sentiment closed last week on a strong note after the wild rally on Thursday in the wake of the softer-than-expected October US CPI data. Sentiment was checked in the Asian session today by rising Covid cases in China, although the Zero Covid policy approach there may be softening. US yields jumped a bit to start this week after a bank holiday on Friday and after Fed Governor Waller was the first significant Fed profile to push back against the market’s lower of forward Fed tightening expectations in the wake of a single data release.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) Last was a spectacular week for equities with the MSCI World Index up 6.7% with our theme baskets e-commerce, cyber security, and semiconductors rallying 19.4%, 13.6%, and 12.8% respectively. High duration equity themes responded the most to broad-based easing of financial conditions last week and the key question is now if the market will extend its momentum. S&P 500 futures closed on Friday at the 4,000 level and have opened a bit lower this morning but are already attempting to climb back to the 4,000 level. If we look at financial conditions and where they mostly went last week there are theoretically room for a rally up 4,100 and even beyond that to the 4,200 level. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIX2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hang Seng Index climbed 2.7% and CSI 300 edged up 0.9% on the news that the People’s Bank of China and the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly issued a notice to financial institutions with 16 measures to address the liquidity squeeze faced by property developers through measures including the temporary relaxation of previously imposed redlines restricting banks from lending over certain ceilings to developers and calling for financial institutions to treat private enterprise developers equally with state-owned enterprises. Leading China private enterprise property developers listed in Hong Kong soared by 20% to 40% at one point. FX: USD picking up the pieces after massive downdraft on lower October CPI The US dollar lurched into an historic two-day plunge late last week after the release of the softer than expected US October CPI data on Thursday ahead of a three-day weekend for US rates (on Friday’s bank holiday). The move was so sharp that it can’t hope to maintain course, so for the nearest term, the market will try to feel out consolidation levels. EURUSD, for example, finally found resistance just above the key 1.0350 area, which was the major low back in May and June and prior to that, back in early 2017. The first support is the 1.0200 area, the 38.2% retracement of the rally sprint, with the reversal level at 1.0100, the 61.8% retracement and near the prior important resistance. For USDJPY, the market managed to take out the 139.40, the prior major high in July, around where it trades this morning. Amazingly, having fallen from 151.95 to the local low of 138.46, the 200-day moving average is still quite far away, near 133.00. Crude oil (CLZ2 & LCOF3) remains rangebound ... trading softer into the European session in response to a recovering dollar after Fed’s Waller said the FOMC has some way to go before it stops raising interest rates. Earlier in the session commodity prices in general, including oil, were supported by demand optimism after China on top easing Covid restrictions issued a rescue package for its struggling property market. A pickup in Chinese demand, despite the current headwinds from rising virus cases, when EU is preparing sanctions against Russian oil and OPEC+ is cutting production, will likely lead to further tightening of the market. Focus on US economic data given its impact on risk appetite as well as Monthly Oil Market Reports from OPEC today and the IEA tomorrow. Gold trades softer following a two-week jump of almost 8% … after Fed’s Waller cautioned that the FOMC isn’t close to pausing interest rate hikes. The dollar strengthened while Treasury yields moved higher after having been closed on Friday for Veterans Day. Overall, however, the sentiment in the market seems to be changing with a period of consolidation, potentially the next phase. Focus on resistance-turned-support at $1735 and whether we have seen a shift in the trading behaviour among speculators from a sell-into-strength to a buy-on-weakness. ETF investors – net sellers for months - and speculators in the futures market now hold the key that could unlock further gains. Expect some consolidation and potentially a recheck of support at $1735 with resistance at $1789 and $1804. Industrial metals remain focussed on China … and overnight iron ore, the key feedstock for steel production, jumped +3% after the Chinese government released a package of policies to rescue its property sector. The news came on top of last week's easing of some virus restrictions which drove a near 14% rally in the Bloomberg Industrial metals index to a five-month high. Copper, now up 25% from the July low was one of the main beneficiaries of the news, coming at a time when supplies are already showing signs of tightening. Overnight, the property news drove HG copper to a fresh five-month high at $3.96 per pound before some profit taking emerged just ahead of critical and potential sentiment as well as momentum changing resistance in the $4 to $4.05 area.  US treasuries (TLT, IEF) US Treasury yields (10Y) closed Thursday on a weak note after the plunge on the October CPI data ahead of a three day weekend for banks (treasuries not trading, even as equity markets were open). Yields have jumped a bit here at the start of this week after Fed Board of Governors member Waller pushed back against the market’s repricing of Fed tightening intentions since that CPI release (more below) in comments overnight. The low water mark for the 10-year treasury benchmark was just above 3.80%, with a jump back above 4.00% needed to suggest that this drop in yields is temporary. The next level of note to the downside is the 3.50% area, which was the high-water mark back in June that held for about three months before new highs were posted in September. What is going on? AUDUSD is up 9% from its low, gaining some extra ground on China’ property rescue package The Aussie dollar has gained ground on the back of China's introduction of a property sector rescue package. AUDUSD now trades at a two-month high, hitting 0.666 in anticipation that Australia’s trade surplus will be further supported by exports into resurgent Chinese demand after China introduced 16 property measures to address its developer liquidity crisis. On top of that that, China’s eased some covid restrictions; shortening to five-day quarantines, which is aimed at reducing the economic impact of Covid Zero. US Fed’s Waller pushes back against market’s lowering of Fed expectations Federal Reserve Governor (and therefore voter) Christopher Waller has been the first high profile Fed official to emerge and push back against the market’s repricing lower of the Fed’s rate tightening trajectory in comments overnight. Speaking at a Sydney, Australia conference, Waller said that “These rates are going to...stay high for a while until we see this inflation get down closer to our target”. “We’ve still got a ways to go. This isn’t ending in the next meeting or two.” The market is now pricing the Fed to reach a peak policy rate below 5.00%, either at the March or May FOMC meeting next year, with a 50-basis point hike priced for December to take the Fed Funds rate to 4.25-4.50% and slightly more than 50 basis points of further tightening priced beyond that. This is some 25 basis points below the prior peak in expectations. Crypto market fear is spreading On Friday, the CEO of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX stepped down, and FTX and more than 100 affiliates filed for bankruptcy, with the filing revealing that FTX and Alameda Research (related trading firm) have liabilities in the range $10-$50 bn. Contagious effects have already appeared with examples of as Genesis has $175 mn stuck in FTX and the crypto lender BlockFi stating that they would be limiting activities in wake of the FTX collapse. As the confidence in centralized exchanges is shrinking, a record-high amount of Bitcoin was moved out of exchanges and into self-custody wallets due to increased fears of exploitation and mismanaging of user funds. What are we watching next? Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard to speak today Brainard is thought to be one of the most dovish of prominent Fed figures and possibly behind what was seen as slightly dovish insertion in the November FOMC monetary policy statement before Fed Chair Powell’s press conference. What will Brainard say now that the market seems ready to pounce on a single month’s data to significantly alter its projections of Fed policy? NY Fed President and voter Williams will also speak today, with a rather busy schedule of Fed speakers in the week ahead. Incoming US data Traders will remain nervous around incoming US data after the wild reaction to last week’s Thursday October US CPI release. The US macro calendar highlights this week include Tuesday’s October PPI releases, the Oct. Retail Sales data on Wednesday and November NAHB Housing Market Index release the same day. Finally, the US reports October Housing Starts/Building Permits data on Thursday. Major China Internet companies are scheduled to report this week Meituan (03690:xhkg) kicks off the busy earnings calendar of  China Internet companies on Monday, followed by Tencent (00700:xhkg) on Wednesday, Alibaba (09988:xhkg) on Thursday, and JD.COM (09618:xhkg) on Friday. Analysts’ estimates for top-line growth in Q3 are subdued due to weak consumption recovery and the macro environment. Slow merchandise value (GMV) growth during the Singles’ Day festival may point to a sluggish Q4 outlook. Alibaba's GMV growth during the Singles' Day festival was flat. JD.COM has not yet announced its numbers except saying GMV had positive growth Y/Y during the period (from Oct 31 evening to Nov 11 end of the day). According to estimates, eCommerce platform GMV grew about 14% Y/Y but the large traditional eCommerce platforms were estimated to see GMV growth at just around 3% Y/Y. UK Autumn Statement on 17 November Expect a contractionary 2023 UK Budget. The new Prime minister Rishi Sunak needs to find savings worth about £30-40bn/year to convince the independent Office for Budget Responsibility that debt won’t rise across the medium-term as a percentage of GDP. This is not an easy task. But this is certainly the only way for the United Kingdom to win back investor confidence after the disastrous mini-budget presented in September. All of this will likely increase the depth of the UK recession and poverty across the country. The outlook is really grim. The Bank of England expects the UK to be in recession from mid this year all the way through to mid 20024. Then growth will pick up only very modestly (annualized rate of 0.75 %). Poverty is also increasing. The country’s largest foodbank charity says 11.5 million meals were handed out over six months – more than 63.000 a day on average. This is a record. The 2023 budget will likely make things worse. The UK is facing an emerging market economy dynamic. Earnings to watch The Q3 earnings season is still slowing down but with important earnings releases still coming out this week. Today’s focus is Chinese e-commerce giant Meituan, Brazil-based fintech bank Nu Holdings, and finally DiDi Global which is the Uber equivalent in China. For foreign investors the earnings from Nu Holdings will get the most attention as the bank is purely technology-driven, fast growing (expected to grow net revenue 188% y/y in Q3 to $1.09bn), and has Berkshire Hathaway as one of its biggest shareholders. Monday: Meituan, Sonova, Tyson Foods, Nu Holdings, Trip.com, DiDi Global Tuesday: Infineon Technologies, Vodafone, Alcon, Walmart, Home Depot, Sea Ltd Wednesday: Siemens Energy, Tencent, Experian, SSE, Nibe Industrier, Nvidia, Cisco, Lowe’s, TJX, Target Thursday: Siemens, Alibaba, Applied Materials, Palo Alto Networks, NetEase Friday: JD.com Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 1000 – Eurozone Sep. Industrial Production 1630 – Switzerland SNB President Jordan to speak 1630 – US Fed Vice Chair Brainard to Speak 2030 – Weekly Commitment of Traders Report (delayed from Friday) During the day: OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report 0030 – Australia RBA Minutes 0120 – China Rate Decision 0200 – China Oct. Industrial Production / Retail Sales  Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-nov-14-2022-14112022
Euro-dollar Support Tested Amidst Rate Concerns and Labor Strikes

The Close Of The New York Stock Exchange Was Mostly Red

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 15.11.2022 08:09
At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.63%, the S&P 500 fell 0.89%, and the NASDAQ Composite index fell 1.12%. Dow Jones Merck & Company Inc was the top gainer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 2.39 points or 2.44% to close at 100.35. Quotes of Johnson & Johnson rose by 2.66 points (1.57%), ending trading at 171.91. Visa Inc Class A rose 1.86 points or 0.91% to close at 206.86. The least gainers were Walmart Inc, which shed 4.19 points or 2.94% to end the session at 138.39. Home Depot Inc was up 2.55% or 8.02 points to close at 306.92 while Dow Inc was down 2.24% or 1.19 points to close at 51. 95. S&P 500 Leading gainers among the components of the S&P 500 in today's trading were CF Industries Holdings Inc, which rose 5.21% to hit 107.76, PENN Entertainment Inc, which gained 4.59% to close at 37.63. as well as Moderna Inc, which rose 4.57% to close the session at 179.03. The least gainers were Hasbro Inc, which shed 9.86% to close at 57.16. Shares of Bath & Body Works Inc. lost 8.17% and ended the session at 33.06. Quotes of SVB Financial Group decreased in price by 6.73% to 219.76. NASDAQ Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Opiant Pharmaceuticals Inc, which rose 111.58% to hit 20.10, Freight Technologies Inc, which gained 113.15% to close at 0.44, and also shares of Toughbuilt Industries Inc, which rose 72.27% to end the session at 3.79. The least gainers were Satsuma Pharmaceuticals Inc, which shed 83.22% to close at 0.68. Shares of Sellas Life Sciences Group Inc lost 43.96% to end the session at 2.55. Quotes of Nuwellis Inc decreased in price by 40.00% to 0.12. Numbers On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2188) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (956), while quotes of 111 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,257 companies fell in price, 1,538 rose, and 202 remained at the level of the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 5.37% to 23.73. Gold Gold Futures for December delivery added 0.30%, or 5.30, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for December delivery fell 4.24%, or 3.77, to $85.19 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for January delivery fell 3.57%, or 3.43, to $92.56 a barrel. Forex Meanwhile, in the forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged at 0.21% to 1.03, while USD/JPY advanced 0.77% to hit 139.86. Futures on the USD index rose 0.53% to 106.73.       Relevance up to 03:00 2022-11-16 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/300975
The Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge For Australia Rose More Than Expected

Fresh China Stimulus Has Added To The AUD/USD Pair Rally | Meeting Of President Biden And President Xi Showed Some Goodwill Gestures f

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 15.11.2022 08:39
Summary:  Perhaps reality set in that markets could perhaps have been a bit too euphoric after just one inflation print showed CPI had dropped. Investors took profits from the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 seeing the indices fall 1% & 0.9% ahead of US PPI and following Fed officials’ remarks about ‘additional work to do’ and “a ways to go” to bring down inflation. Inflation expectations in a New York Fed consumer survey increased. Crude oil took a haircut, falling 4.2% after OPEC cut its oil demand outlook. Despite the US dollar rising against almost all major G-10 peers, The Aussie dollar nudged up to 0.67 ahead of the RBA meeting minutes. What’s happening in markets? Investors took profits from the Nasdaq 100 (NAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) seeing the indices fall 1% and 0.9% as there’s ‘additional work to do’ to bring down inflation  Perhaps reality set in, that markets could perhaps have been a bit too euphoric after just one inflation print showed CPI had dropped. The major US indices snapped their two-day rally because US Federal Reserve speakers raised the alarm that the Fed had extra work to do to bring down inflation. Fed Governor Christopher Waller warned that “the market seems to have gotten way out in front over this one CPI report” and the Fed has “got a ways to go”.  Adding to that, Fed’s Vice Chair Lael Brainard said there is “additional work to do”. Putting it into perspective, the S&P500 has still managed to hold onto a gain of 10% from October 10. Given the rhetoric of ‘more work to do’ has been reinforced, it’s important to remember bear markets produce wild swings in markets, and volatility might be expected to pick up given the uncertainty. Ten of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 declined with Real Estate, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials falling the most and Health Care being flat. Amazon (AMXN:xnas) dropped 2.3% as the company announced plans to layoff about 10,000 employees. Tesla (TSLA:xnas) declined 2.6% as Elon Musk said he had too much work to juggle and was running Tesla “with great difficulty”. Toll and board games maker, Hasbro (HAS:xnas) tumbled nearly 10% on analyst downgrades. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HISX2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) as China rolling out financial support to the property sector Hang Seng Index climbed 1.7% and CSI 300 edged up 0.1% on the news that the People’s Bank of China and the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly issued a notice to financial institutions with 16 measures to address the liquidity squeeze faced by property developers through measures including the temporary relaxation of previously imposed redlines restricting banks from lending over certain ceilings to developers and calling for financial institutions to treat private enterprise developers equally with state-owned enterprises. Leading China private enterprise property developers listed in Hong Kong soared, with Country Garden (02007:xhkg) jumping 45.5% and Longfor (00960) surging 16.5%. US  treasury (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) pared some post-CPI gains on hawkish Fedspeak and higher surveyed inflation expectations. US treasury yields rose about 6bps across the curve, paring some of the post-CPI gains, after returning from a long weekend, with the 10-year yield rising to 3.86% and the 2-year yield back to 4.39%. Hawkish comments from Fed Governor Waller that the market has gotten too much ahead of itself on one CPI report and there is still a long way to go triggered selling in treasuries during Asian hours. To add to that, the usually dovish Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard said there is additional work to do in fighting inflation. Higher inflation expectations from the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations weighed on the bond markets. Median one- and three-year-ahead inflation expectations increased to 5.9% and 3.1% from 5.4% and 2.9%, respectively. The median five-year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 2.4% from 2.2%. Also weighing on the markets during the session as about 12 billion corporate bond issuance. Australia’s ASX200 (ASXSP200.1) trades at its highest level since June; focus on CBA today   The biggest bank in Australia and the second biggest company on the ASX, Commonwealth Bank (CBA) reported its financial results today, with the bank reporting its net profit after tax (NPAT) from continuing operations grew just 2% compared to the prior quarter to A$2.5 billion. Its common equity Tier 1 ratio fell slightly to 11.1% vs. 11.5% q/q (showing its holding slightly less cash), and it also declared a loan impairment expense of A$222 million from bad debts, (showing Australians are feeling the pinch of the rate hikes). All in all, CBA’s income rose 9%, driven by higher margins and volume growth, which partly offset the reduced non-interest income. Meanwhile, CBA’s expenses rose, 4.5% (excluding remediation) with higher staff costs adding to the bill. CBA’s shares have risen 21% from their June low. And the technical indicators on the monthly chart suggest its slow grind up could perhaps continue, but the monthly and daily charts look somewhat mixed/choppy- it guess you could say, showing volatility may pick up. A lot can be taken by the RBA’s commentary, which has alluded to insolvencies rising up. Which we can see has been reflected in CBA’s results. Also remember the RBA said that the rate hikes from May have not fully been felt by Australians yet. That means, CBA’s margins could remain thin given inflationary pressures and rising rates. If you are looking for alpha, we still believe commodities offer the most potential over banks. Crude oil (CLZ2 & LCOF3) took a haircut, falling 4.2% after OPEC cut its oil demand outlook WTI crude price fell 4.2% as OPEC cut its global oil demand outlook down 0.1million bpd to 99.6 million bdp for 2022 and down 0.1 million bdp to 101.8 million bdp for 2023.  In the natural gas market, Freeport LNG will likely extend an outage that began in June, curbing the much-needed supply to customers in Europe and Asia. AUDUSD holds steady at around 0.67 after balanced RBA meeting minutes Despite the US dollar rising against almost all major G-10 peers, the Aussie dollar has held its ground, thanks to fresh China stimulus (with China announcing a property sector rescue package, as well as relaxing some Covid restrictions). This has added to the AUDUSD rally, with the pair now gaining 6.2% this month, in anticipation that Australia’s trade surplus will bolster, with hopes that commodity demand will improve. In its minutes released this morning, it shows that the RBA considered the case for a 50bp rate hike but settled at raising 25bps as the RBA was mindful of the full impacts of prior hikes were yet to be fully felt.  What to consider? US PPI today to watch In the October CPI released last week, a decline in health insurance costs due to technical factors contributed to the deceleration in the service component of the core CPI. In the calculation of core PCE, which the Fed watches most closely, the healthcare services prices are estimated from the PPI dataset than the CPI database. As a result, investors are likely to pay more attention to the October PPI numbers scheduled to release on Tuesday than usual as they are trying to gauge the trend of the service component of the core CPI. Bloomberg consensus estimates for headline PPI are +04% M/M and +8.4% Y/Y and for core PPI are +0.3% M/M and +7.2% Y/Y. Biden and Xi stroke a conciliatory tone but key issues unresolved  The 3-hour long meeting between President Biden and President Xi on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Bali showed some goodwill gestures from both sides. Nonetheless, key issues remain unresolved.  In a relatively conciliatory tone, the two leaders agreed to resume talks on climate change and economic issues between officials of the two countries. U.S. Secretary of State Blinken plans to visit China early next year. Japan’s Q3 GDP unexpectedly declined Japan reported Q3 GDP that unexpectedly declined by 1.2% on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, contrary to the consensus expecting a 1.2% growth. Falling net exports and a decline in housing investment drove the weakness. China’s October activity data are expected to be weak October retail sales in China are expected to decelerate to +0.7% Y/Y according to the Bloomberg survey from +2.5% Y/Y in September as the surge in COVID cases and pandemic control restrictions took their toll on consumption. Industrial production is estimated to slow to +5.3% Y/Y in October from +6.3% Y/Y in September, amid Covid-related restrictions, slower auto production, and weak exports. Retail bellwether companies report Q3 results today Home Depot (HD:xnys) and Walmart (WMT) are scheduled to report Q3 results today. Investors will be monitoring the top-line growth figures and assessment of business outlooks to gauge the state of US consumers. For our look ahead at markets this week - Listen/watch our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/market-insights-today-15-nov-2022-15112022
US-China Tensions Continue To Ramp Up, Dollar Off Its Highs

The US And Chinese Leaders Criticized Russia For Its Threatening The Use Of Nuclear Weapons

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 15.11.2022 09:47
Summary:  Equity markets traded largely sideways, as did the US dollar after the wild sell-off late last week in the wake of the soft US CPI data. Markets in Asia traded on a strong note overnight after friendly headlines from the long Biden-Xi talk yesterday. The focus on incoming data in the days ahead will be on US PPI today and Retail Sales tomorrow, with the UK set to announce a much anticipated autumn budget statement on Thursday, likely to include new windfall taxes on power and fossil fuel companies.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) Despite a strong session in China there is little spillover effect into developed market equities with S&P 500 futures still hovering just below the 4,000 level. Today’s key events are earnings from Walmart and Home Depot, or news coming out of the G20 meeting. US equities are tilted short-term in favour of an upside move with the 200-day moving average in the S&P 500 futures at 4,080 being the natural gravitational point for the market. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIX2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hong Kong and China’s equity markets surged for the third day in a row, with Hang Seng Index soaring 3.4% and CSI 300 climbing 1.7%, as optimism returned to the markets due to favourable policy shifts in China regarding pandemic control and property developers’ access to funding and goodwill gestures shown by China’s President Xi and the US’ President Biden at their first face-to-face meeting after President Biden took office. China Internet companies were among the top gainers, with Alibaba (09988:xhkg) up 11%, Tencent (00700:xhkg) up 10%, and Meituan (03690:xhkg) up 6%. Investors brushed off the rise of new Covid cases to 17,772 in mainland China as well as weaker-than-expected retail sales (shrinking 0.5%) and industrial production (+5%) in October. FX: USD still on the mat after massive downdraft on lower October CPI After the massive two-day plunge last week on the release of the softer than expected US October CPI data on Thursday, the US dollar largely tread water in yesterday’s session, with traders unwilling to take it lower still after a huge, one-off adjustment to Fed expectations that will require more weak incoming data from the US if investors want to solidy their case for a coming Fed pivot. EURUSD continues to trade near the key 1.0350 area, which was the major low back in May and June and prior to that, back in early 2017. The first support is the 1.0200 area, the 38.2% retracement of the rally sprint, with the reversal level at 1.0100, the 61.8% retracement and near the prior important resistance. For USDJPY, while the market managed to briefly take out the 139.40, the prior major high in July, it has bounced back above 140.00 at times since yesterday. Crude oil (CLZ2 & LCOF3) returned to the lower end of their current ranges ... after OPEC cut its forecasts for global oil demand in the fourth quarter, virus infections continue to climb in China. In addition, a monthly Drilling Productivity Report from the EIA cast doubt on US shale growth and as oil production per drilled well has fallen to the lowest since July 2020. Weaker than expected China data also highlighted the risk to oil demand during the final quarter before an expected tightening driven by OPEC+ production cuts and EU sanctions against Russian oil. Focus on US economic data given its impact on risk appetite as well as IEA’s Oil Market Report for November due later today. Gold (XAUUSD) Gold has so far seen three shallow corrections during the run up from the post-FOMC low at $1620 on November 3, highlighting an emerging “buy-the-dip" mentality as short positions are being reduced while others trade the current positive momentum. An attempt to reverse some of last week's drop in the dollar and yields initially supported a correction but gold did not get close to test key support at $1735 before receiving a bid after Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard said it would be appropriate for the Fed to slow its monetary-tightening pace soon. Demand from ETF investors – net sellers for months – have yet to show any appetite while speculators cut their net short by 80% to –8k lots in the week to November 8.  Expect some consolidation and potentially a recheck of support at $1735 with resistance at $1789 and $1804. US treasuries (TLT, IEF) US treasuries failed to consolidate much of last Thursday’s enormous slide in yields, with the 4.00-4.10% area the somewhat far away upside swing zone, while the next major focus lower will be on the major pivot high near 3.50% from June. What is going on? Xi-Biden summit sees positive headlines After a three-hour talk between the US and Chinese heads of state, both sides issued statement suggesting a friendly reset of the tone between the two countries. The two sides are set to resume cooperation on climate change and food security and both leaders criticized Russia for its threatening the use of nuclear weapons. The Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said the talks represent a “new starting point” with both sides hoping “to stop the tumbling of bilateral ties and to stabilize the relationship.” Weak incoming data from China overnight Industrial Production rose 5% YoY in October, a slowing of the pace from the month before and below estimates of 5.3%. Retail Sales for the month were down –0.5%, far below expectations of a rise of +0.7%. Infineon Technologies blasts earnings estimates The German semiconductor manufacturer reports strong Q4 results (ending 30 September) with revenue at €4.14bn vs est. €3.93bn and segment profit of €1.06bn vs est. €970mn. For the current fiscal year, the company guides segment profit margin of 24% vs est. 22.2% and revenue of €15.5bn vs est. €15bn. Fed Vice Chair Brainard mentions slowing the pace of Fed rate hikes In an interview yesterday, Lael Brainard, widely considered the chief dove on this FOMC, confirmed forward market expectations for lowering the size of future rate hikes. After last Thursday’s softer US October CPI print, the market had already lowered expectations to a 50-bp move, so there was little market impact despite a flurry of headlines. Brainard said “It will probably be appropriate soon to move to a slower pace of increases...but I think what’s really important to emphasize, we’ve done a lot, but we have additional work to do.” Higher US inflation expectations ... from the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations weighed slightly on bond markets. Median one- and three-year-ahead inflation expectations increased to 5.9% and 3.1% from 5.4% and 2.9%, respectively. The median five-year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 2.4% from 2.2%. Also weighing on the markets during the session was about $12 billion corporate bond issuance. What are we watching next? ECB’s TLTRO repayments on Friday This is usually a non-event for traders, only ECB watchers care about that. But this is before the European Central Bank (ECB) decided on 27 October to change the rules retroactively and increase the targeted longer-term refinancing operation (TLTRO) rates from 23 November onwards. The interest rate will be directly indexed on the ECB’s deposit rate (which could peak at 2.50 % next year) instead of being calculated over the entire life of the operation. This creates strong incentives for commercial banks to repay in advance (the bulk of the TLTRO was going to be repaid in June 2023). This is aimed to reduce the eurozone balance sheet and with that to contribute to the overall monetary policy normalisation. At this stage, it is still unclear what will be the exact consequences on the flow of credit in the eurozone. This is something to monitor, however. Incoming US data Traders will remain nervous around incoming US data after the wild reaction to last week’s Thursday October US CPI release. The US macro calendar highlights this week include today’s October PPI releases, the Oct. Retail Sales data on Wednesday and November NAHB Housing Market Index release the same day. Finally, the US reports October Housing Starts/Building Permits data on Thursday. Hints of new taxes for the coming UK Autumn Budget Statement on 17 November The new Prime minister Rishi Sunak needs to find savings worth about £30-40bn/year to convince the independent Office for Budget Responsibility that debt won’t rise across the medium-term as a percentage of GDP.  At the same time, Sunak was out yesterday promising the return of the “triple lock” he suspended for 2022-23 as Chancellor, under which pensions are adjusted higher by the highest of inflation, average earnings, or 2.5%. Current Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is considering a new 40% windfall tax on electricity producers. He may also extend the current windfall tax on oil and gas producers to 2028 and raise it to 35% from 25% in Thursday’s budget statement. Earnings to watch Today’s US earnings focus is Walmart and Home Depot which are both giants in the US consumer sector. Walmart is expected to deliver 5.2% y/y revenue growth and lower EBITDA margin at 5.5% down from 6.3% a year ago. Home Depot is expected to deliver revenue growth of 3% y/y and unchanged EBITDA margin at 17.5% compared to a year ago. Sea Ltd is also reporting today and was at one point the darling of the market delivering high growth rates and strong returns but the last year has been brutal. Analysts expect revenue growth of 12% y/y down from a revenue growth rate of 122% y/y a year ago as e-commerce, gaming and financial services have slowed down in Southeast Asia. Today: Infineon Technologies, Vodafone, Alcon, Walmart, Home Depot, Sea Ltd Wednesday: Siemens Energy, Tencent, Experian, SSE, Nibe Industrier, Nvidia, Cisco, Lowe’s, TJX, Target Thursday: Siemens, Alibaba, Applied Materials, Palo Alto Networks, NetEase Friday: JD.com Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0900 – IEA’s Oil Market Report for November 1000 – Germany Nov. ZEW Survey 1000 – Eurozone Sep. Trade BAlance 1000 – Eurozone Q3 GDP estimate 1330 – US Oct. PPI 1330 – Canada Sep. Manufacturing Sales 1400 – US Fed’s Harker (voter 2023) to speak 1500 – US Fed’s Barr (Voter) to speak before Senate panel 2130 – API's Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock report 0030 – Australia Q3 Wage Price Index  Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-nov-15-2022-15112022
At The Close On The New York Stock Exchange Indices Closed Mixed

At The Close Of The New York Stock Exchange Most Securities Rose In Price

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 16.11.2022 08:02
At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 0.17%, the S&P 500 rose 0.87% and the NASDAQ Composite rose 1.45%. Dow Jones Walmart Inc was the top performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 9.05 points or 6.54% to close at 147.44. Nike Inc rose 2.32 points or 2.22% to close at 106.71. Salesforce Inc rose 3.41 points or 2.15% to close at 162.07. The least gainers were UnitedHealth Group Incorporated, which shed 10.74 points or 2.09% to end the session at 503.01. The Travelers Companies Inc was up 1.75% or 3.20 points to close at 179.50 while Verizon Communications Inc was down 1.59% or 0.61 points to close at 37.70. S&P 500 Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were SVB Financial Group, which rose 9.18% to 239.93, Ceridian HCM Holding Inc, which gained 8.30% to close at 72.68. as well as Match Group Inc, which rose 6.66% to end the session at 51.92. The least gainers were Capital One Financial Corporation, which shed 7.18% to close at 103.56. Shares of Albemarle Corp shed 6.48% to end the session at 295.86. Quotes Synchrony Financial fell in price by 4.85% to 35.92.  NASDAQ Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Tenax Therapeutics Inc, which rose 45.74% to hit 0.14, Qurate Retail Inc Series B, which gained 37.28% to close at 7.14. , as well as shares of Exagen Inc, which rose 42.38% to close the session at 2.99. Shares of Jowell Global Ltd. were the biggest losers, losing 56.65% to close at 0.69. Shares of Fast Radius Inc lost 47.79% and ended the session at 0.10. Quotes of Kingstone Companies Inc decreased in price by 45.03% to 0.91. Numbers On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (2,346) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (788), while quotes of 102 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2499 companies rose in price, 1319 fell, and 197 remained at the level of the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 3.41% to 24.54. Gold Gold futures for December delivery added 0.29%, or 5.15, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for December delivery rose 1.12%, or 0.96, to $86.83 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for January delivery rose 0.62%, or 0.58, to $93.72 a barrel. Forex Meanwhile, in the forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.25% to 1.04, while USD/JPY fell 0.51% to hit 139.16. Futures on the USD index fell 0.15% to 106.37.   Relevance up to 03:00 2022-11-17 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/301152
Hungary's Budget Deficit Grows, Raising Concerns Over Fiscal Targets

Apple Shares Rose | As Trump Still Enjoys Personal Popularity

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 16.11.2022 09:08
Summary:  Equity markets were in for a wild ride yesterday as the melt-up continued in early trading, only to violently reverse on an apparently errant missile killing two in a Polish town bordering Ukraine. The price action has since stabilized, with risk sentiment still strong in Asia on hopes for incoming stimulus from China. Important incoming US data up today includes the October Retail Sales data.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) Big rejection in S&P 500 futures yesterday with the index futures coming off 1.3% from the intraday highs to close below the 4,000 level. Yesterday’s upside driver was a lower than estimated US PPI print and then later the downside move was triggered by news that a rumoured Russian missile had hit Polish territory killing two persons. This morning S&P 500 futures are attempting to push above the 4,000 level again, but we want to emphasize cautiousness here as geopolitical risks remain high and markets that seem fragile and trading on thin liquidity across many markets. Today’s key earnings event in the US is Nvidia reporting after the market close. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIX2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hong Kong and China stocks consolidated and took a pause on the strong rally since last Friday, with Hang Seng Index losing 1% and CSI 300 Index sliding 0.7%. Chinese property names retraced. Leading private enterprise developer Country Garden (02007:xhkg) plunged 14% following the placement of new shares. Chinese EV makers underperformed, with leading names dropping by 2% to 6%. New Covid cases in mainland China went above 20,000 for the first time since April. FX: USD volatile on risk sentiment swings yesterday The US dollar was pummelled yesterday as the risk sentiment melt-up initially continued yesterday in early trading in the US before a missile hitting a Polish town (more below) sharply reversed sentiment. The situation has since stabilized, but the reversal of the spike put a considerable dent in tactical USD downside momentum. GBPUSD traded the most wildly ahead of today’s CPI and tomorrow’s Autumn Budget Statement, squeezing from 1.1750 early yesterday to all the way north of 1.2000 briefly before trading back to 1.1800 and closing the day south of 1.1900. The USD volatility was less pronounced elsewhere, particularly against Asian currencies. The incoming US data and risk sentiment swings around that data (or as we saw yesterday from other sources) will likely drive the next USD move. Crude oil (CLZ2 & LCOF3) Crude oil ended lower on Tuesday following a volatile trading session that briefly saw prices spike on news a Polish border town had been hit by a Russian-made but probably Ukrainian fired missile (see below). Overall, the crude oil market remains rangebound with demand worries currently weighing a touch harder than supply concerns driven by OPEC+ production cuts and from next month, EU sanctions against Russian oil, a development that according to the IEA may drive a 15% reduction in Russian output early next year. In China the number of virus cases have surged to near 20,000 thereby testing local authorities' appetite for maintaining the covid-zero restrictions. Focus on EIA’s weekly stock report after the API reported a 5.8m barrel drop in crude and smaller increases in fuel stocks. Gold (XAUUSD) Gold touched resistance at $1788 on Tuesday as the dollar hit a fresh cycle low after US PPI showed the smallest increase since mid-2021. Later in the day, a brief safe haven bid quickly fizzled out after Biden said the rocket that hit Poland was unlikely to have been fired from Russia. Demand from ETF investors – net sellers for months – remain elusive with total holdings falling to a fresh 31-month low and with that in mind expect continued consolidation and potentially a recheck of support at $1735. Resistance at $1788, the 38.2% retracement of the 2022 correction and $1804, the 200-day moving average. US treasuries (TLT, IEF) US treasuries punched to new local lows yesterday, with the 10-year treasury benchmark dipping below 3.80% after a likely errant missile hit a Polish town bordering Ukraine and on slightly softer than expected PPI data. But yields have rebounded today and are back to slightly below the close from last Thursday after that day’s surprisingly soft October US CPI release. Key levels are 3.50% to the downside, the pivot high around the June FOMC meeting when the Fed hiked 75 basis points for the first time for this cycle, while 4.00-4.10% is perhaps the upside swing area. What is going on? UK October CPI was out at 11.1% YoY, a new cycle high This was vs. 10.7% expected and 10.1% in September. Core CPI matched the cycle high from September at 6.5% YoY, versus 6.4% expected. Sterling trades a bit weaker after the initial reaction to the data point, as higher inflation will likely require more fiscal and monetary tightening that will make the coming UK recession deeper, a sterling negative. Missile comes down in Poland town bordering Ukraine, killing two The source of the missiles is a mystery, with US President Biden saying after an emergency meeting with other leaders that the missile was “unlikely” to have been launched in Russia, while Poland claimed that the missile was “Russian made” and convened an emergency security meeting yesterday afternoon. Markets reacted strongly to the development initially, as Poland is a member of NATO. Russian officials said that claims of an intentional missile firing are a “deliberate provocation with the goal of escalating the situation.” Donald Trump declares third bid for the White House in 2024 Trump was widely seen as the chief liability in a very poor Republican showing in the mid-term elections last week, with candidates strongly denying the results of the 2020 election losing badly in almost every case. The Democrats are set to gain a slightly larger majority in the Senate and the Republicans will only eke out the narrowest of majorities in the House of Representatives. As Trump still enjoys an unmatched “base” of personal popularity, it will be difficult for any Republican profile to rise up to challenge Trump, just as it is likely impossible that Trump can win independent voters and those that are not his base. It’s ideal ground for the formation of a new party. Apple set to shift to US-based chip production Apple shares rose over 2.1%, moving to their highest level since early November after the Apple CEO unveiled the company will be using US-made Chips from Arizona in 2024, as part of reducing its reliance on Asian chip manufacturers and shifting to producing its own. CEO Tim Cook also told staff Apple plans to expand its chip supply into European markets. The moves underscore the necessity for technology companies to reshoring semiconductors from Asia to reduce supply chain risks. These types of moves will add to inflationary pressures in the future. US earnings recap: Walmart, Home Depot, and Sea Ltd Yesterday’s earnings releases from these three consumer retailing companies were all better than expected with Walmart lifting guidance and beating on revenue growth. Home Depot had the most downbeat reaction from investors as the home improvement retailer’s revenue growth beat was only due to inflation and not higher volume. The biggest positive reaction was in Sea Ltd shares as the Southeast Asia gaming and e-commerce company posted a narrower operating loss and beat on revenue growth; however, the company took down guidance in its gaming division. Read more details in our earnings review note from yesterday. US producer prices cool more than expected, clocking smallest gain in a year Investors got another piece of evidence inflationary pressures are easing, with US producer price growth rising 8% Y/Y in October (below the 8.3% Bloomberg consensus expected and down from the 8.5% Y/Y in September). Excluding volatile food, energy, core PPI rose 6.7% Y/Y in October- when the market prices to rise 7.2%. After peaking in March at 11.7%, producer price growth has moderated from improving supply chains, softer demand, and weakening commodities prices. The Fed has therefore garnered more catalysts to slow its pace of hikes, which also provides further support to the equity market and bond markets. However, the next important data sets the Fed will be watching are due early next month; US jobs, and November CPI, which are ahead of the Fed’s next meeting (in the third week of December). Arabica coffee (KCc1) dropped 4.4% on Tuesday … thereby extending a rout that has seen the price retrace almost 61.8% of the 2019 to 2022 surge to a multi-year high above $2.50 per pound. Fast forward nine months and the global economic slowdown has led to a reduction in away-from-home consumption at a time where the production outlook from South America has improved. Stocks at ICE monitored warehouses have risen for the past seven days from a 20-year low and could more than double soon with more than half a million bags awaiting assessment. A new LNG exporter is born Mozambique is now officially a new LNG exporter after the first shipment on Monday left the Coral South floating liquefaction unit, which has a 4.4 bcm annual export capacity. This is positive news for Europe who is desperately looking for new energy suppliers since the Ukraine war has started. It was a long-decade process for Mozambique to get its first LNG supply out of the country. Based on official estimates, this is one of the largest LNG offshore fields in Africa. What are we watching next? Fed hawk Christopher Waller to speak on Economic Outlook tonight Waller is an FOMC voter as he sits on the Board of Governors and is widely considered one of the most hawkish Fed members and may unleash a blast of hawkish rhetoric, although it seems the market is more likely to listen only to Fed Chair Powell himself and more importantly, at incoming data. US October Retail Sales data today An interesting data release is up today, the US Retail Sales for October. This data series suggests rather sluggish US growth and is reported in nominal month-on-month terms, not real- or inflation-adjusted terms. The last three months of the headline data have averaged almost exactly 0.0%, while the “ex Food and Energy” series has averaged +0.36%. Today’s headline number is expected at +1.0% MoM and +0.2% for core sales. Earnings to watch Today’s US earnings focus is Nvidia which is expected to deliver a 18% decline in revenue y/y to $5.8bn and EPS of $0.70 down 31% y/y as the market for GPUs is cooling down as crypto mining is becoming less profitable from lower prices on cryptocurrencies. Tencent is expected to report earnings today following a new round of layoffs announced yesterday as revenue growth is expected to be down 1% y/y in Q3. Today: Siemens Energy, Tencent, Experian, SSE, Nibe Industrier, Nvidia, Cisco, Lowe’s, TJX, Target Thursday: Siemens, Alibaba, Applied Materials, Palo Alto Networks, NetEase Friday: JD.com Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0900 – ECB Financial Stability Review 1300 – Poland Oct. CPI 1315 – Canada Oct. Housing Starts 1330 – US Oct. Retail Sales 1330 – Canada Oct. CPI 1330 – US Oct. Import & Export Prices 1415 – US Oct. Industrial Production 1450 – US Fed’s Williams (Voter) to speak 1500 – US Nov. NAHB Housing Market Index 1500 – US Fed’s Barr (Voter) to testify before House Panel 1530 – EIA's Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report 1935 – US Fed’s Waller (Voter) to speak 0030 – Australia Oct. Employment Change / Unemployment Rate Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source:https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-nov-16-2022-16112022
Brent hits one-month high! Saudi and Russian cuts supporting recent moves

On The NASDAQ Stock Exchange 2,616 Companies Fell In Price

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 17.11.2022 08:02
At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones was down 0.12%, the S&P 500 was down 0.83% and the NASDAQ Composite was down 1.54%. Dow Jones McDonald's Corporation was the leading gainer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 4.67 points or 1.74% to close at 272.51. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated rose 8.51 points or 1.69% to close at 511.52. Home Depot Inc rose 0.96% or 2.98 points to close at 314.91. The least gainers were Salesforce Inc, which shed 6.95 points or 4.29% to end the session at 155.12. Intel Corporation was up 3.84% or 1.18 points to close at 29.53, while Dow Inc was down 2.11% or 1.09 points to close at 50.51. . S&P 500  Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were TJX Companies Inc, which rose 5.19% to hit 79.02, Campbell Soup Company, which gained 3.89% to close at 50.71, and also shares of W. R. Berkley Corp, which rose 3.83% to end the session at 71.76. The least gainers were Advance Auto Parts Inc, which shed 15.06% to close at 156.24. Shares of Carnival Corporation shed 13.71% to end the session at 9.63. Quotes of Target Corporation decreased in price by 13.14% to 155.47. NASDAQ The leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Fast Radius Inc, which rose 106.29% to hit 0.21, Qurate Retail Inc Series B, which gained 45.90% to close at 10.41 , as well as shares of InMed Pharmaceuticals Inc, which rose 36.33% to close the session at 3.79. The least gainers were shares of Dlocal Ltd, which lost 50.71% to close at 10.46. Shares of Brainsway Ltd lost 31.56% and ended the session at 2.19. Quotes of Cuentas Inc decreased in price by 28.00% to 0.25. Numbers On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2104) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1012), while quotes of 119 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,616 companies fell in price, 1,142 rose, and 236 remained at the level of the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 1.75% to 11/24. Gold Gold Futures for December delivery added 0.04%, or 0.65, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude futures for December delivery fell 1.83%, or 1.59, to $85.33 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for January delivery fell 1.29%, or 1.21, to $92.65 a barrel. Forex Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.43% to 1.04, while USD/JPY advanced 0.15% to hit 139.49. Futures on the USD index fell 0.13% to 106.15.     Relevance up to 03:00 2022-11-18 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/301333
The Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge For Australia Rose More Than Expected

Australian Employment Rose | Microsoft Will Use Nvidia's Graphics Chips

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 17.11.2022 08:47
Summary:  The hotter-than-expected US retail sales data and hawkish-leaning comments from Fed officials weighed on equities but boosted buying of long-dated bonds as investors focused on the likelihood of Fed overdoing in monetary tightening and triggering a recession. Target disappointed with Q3 miss and weak Q4 sales guidance, highlighting the pain of the US retailers and consumers. Nvidia's results beat expectations, moving its shares up after hours. What’s happening in markets? The Nasdaq 100 (NAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) retreated on strong retail sales and hawkish Fedspeak The Good news is bad news phenomenon persists. The hotter-than-expected 1.3% rise in October retail sales, followed by several hawkish-leaning comments from Fed officials triggered concerns that the Fed would overdo monetary tightening and bring about a recession. The fall in yields at the long end of the US treasury curve did not lend support to the equity market as in recent months as stock investors took it as a sign of bond market pricing in a higher recession risk. Nasdaq 100 fell 1.5% and S&P500 declined 0.8%, with 68% of S&P 500 companies and 9 out of 11 sectors closing lower. Energy, consumer discretionary, and information technology led the benchmark index lower while the defensive utilities sector and consumer staples sector managed to finish the session with modest gains. Target (TGT:xnys) fell 13% following the retailer reported a large miss on earnings and cut its outlook for the current quarter far below analyst estimates. Lowe’s (LOW:xnys) gained 3% after reporting better-than-expected comparable sales and raising full-year earnings guidance. Micron (MU:xnas) dropped 6.7% as the chipmaker said it was cutting DRAM and NAND wafer production. After the market closed, Nvdia (NVDA:xnas) and Cisco (CSCO:xnas) reported earnings beating analyst estimates. Nvida rose 1.3% and Cisco gained 3.9% in the extended hours trading. US  treasuries (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) rallied with yields in the long end of the curve falling most on recession concerns The US treasury yield curve bull flattened, with the 2-year yield edging up 2bps to 4.35% while the 10-year yield fell 8bps to 3.69%. The much-watched yield curve inversion between the 2-year and the 10-year widened to 67bps, the most invested since February 1982, and heightened the growth scare among investors. The market has largely priced in a 50bps hike in December but is unwinding some of the post-CPI optimism that the Fed may do less next year, after Fed’s George, Daly, Waller, and Williams pushed back on the notion of pausing. The strong results from the 20-year bond auction on Wednesday helped supported the outperformance of the long ends.  Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HISX2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) on fire as risk-on sentiment returned Hong Kong and China stocks consolidated and took a pause on the strong rally since last Friday, with Hang Seng Index losing 0.5% and CSI 300 Index sliding 0.8%. Chinese property names retreated, following new home prices in the 70 major cities of China falling 1.6% Y/Y in October, the largest decline in seven years, and Agile (03383) announced that the developer will sell new shares at an 18% discount. Agile tumbled 23%. Country Garden (02007:xhkg), which also announced share placement earlier, plunged 15%. Investors also became increasing concerned about the rising trend in new Covid cases in mainland China, which having gone above 20,000 for the first time since April. In New York hours, the ADRs of Tencent (00700:xhks) rose 3.4% versus their Hong Kong closing level after reporting earnings beating estimates while Meituan (03690:xhkg) dropped 6.7% from Hong Kong closing as Tencent said it would disburse its stake on Meituan to shareholders. What to consider U.S. Retails hotter-than expected U.S. headline retail sales grew by 1.3% M/M in October (consensus:  +1%, Sep: 0%). The control-group retail sales increased by 0.7% M/M (consensus: +0.3%, Sep: +0.4%). U.K. headline CPI jumped to 11.1% in October, the highest in 41 years U.K’s October headline CPI came in at 11.1% Y/Y (vs consensus 10.7%), the highest in 41 years. Core CPI remained at 6.5%. Australia’s unemployment falls, employment rises more than expected in October, following Australian wage growth growing more than expected; AUDUSD trades flat Australia’s jobless rate fell to 3.4%, from 3.5% last month, which supports the RBA continuing to rise rates, and not pause on rate hikes at their next meeting in December. Australian employment rose by 32,200 month-on-month in October, almost double the 15,000 jobs expected to be added to the economy. Job growth is also up markedly from the tiny 900 jobs that were added the month prior. The AUDUSD is staying range bound for now. Target reported Q3 earnings miss and full-year guidance reduction Target’s Q3 adjusted EPS fell to USD1.54, nearly 30% below the median of analyst estimates. The retailer is predicting a drop in comparable sales for the first time in five years and estimating operating margins will shrink to about 3%, which is half of its previous forecast. Target is looking to axe $3 billion in costs, but says there will be no mass layoffs. This highlights the pain of the US retailers and also the consumer – who is reluctant to spend on non-essential items in the face of rising interest rates and inflation. Nvidia earnings beat Software graphics giant Nvidia (NVDA) reported revenue for the third quarter that beat analyst estimates. Revenue fell 17% y/y to $5.93 billion, beating the expected drop of 18% y/y to $5.84 billion. NVIDIA’s outlook for the fourth quarter was a bit vague though, but more or less points to improvements in revenue, citing revenue is expected to hit $6.00 billion, plus or minus 2%. Nvidia said Microsoft will use its graphics chips, networking products, and software in Microsoft’s new AI products. Nickel Miners could be under fire Profit taking in oil equites is likely with the after the oil price fell on reports the Druzhba pipeline carrying Russian oil to Europe had restarted, WTI Crude Oil fell 1.9%. Elsewhere, Nickel miners shares could be under fire today move after Nickel futures fell 9% on Wednesday. LME is said to be stepping up surveillance of sharp swings earlier in the week on supply fears. Keep an eye on Australia’s Nickel Mines (NIC) and IGO, Japan’s Pacific Metals, Sumitomo Metal Mining, and Indonesia’s Vale Indonesia, Aneka Tambang. For our look ahead at markets this week - Listen/watch our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast. Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/market-insights-today-17-nov-2022-17112022
Share of Russian metal grows in LME warehouses

Copper And Silver Both Extended Their Declines | The USD Edged Higher

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 17.11.2022 10:17
Summary:  The strong equity market rally eased yesterday as a very strong US Retail Sales report for October pushes back against the notion that the US economy is rapidly weakening. Today features a pivotal Autumn Budget Statement that will allow the market to make a vote of confidence on sterling on whether the new spending cuts and tax rises will inspire further confidence in sterling after its recent comeback.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) S&P 500 futures fell yesterday to close at 3,968 as investors are not following through on the momentum around the ‘peak rates’ narrative. This morning the index futures are trading higher with the 3,964 level being the key level to watch on the downside and 4,000 on the upside. Today’s macro events that can impact the equity market are US housing starts and permits, Philly Fed Business Outlook and initial jobless claims with the latter in focus given the latest mass layoffs in the technology sector. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIX2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hong Kong and China stocks retreated for the second day in a row, with Hang Seng Index falling around 2% and CSI 300 declining 1%. Tencent (00700:xhkg) fluctuated between small gains and losses after reporting Q3 EPS beating analyst estimates but a 2% Y/Y decline in revenues, being dragged down by online gaming and advertisement. Meituan (03690:xhkg) however fell nearly 8%, following Tencent’s announcement to disburse its 17% stake in Meituan to shareholders. NetEase (0999:xhkg) tumbled 12% after US gaming company Blizzard Entertainment (ATVI:xnas) would not renew its expiring licensing agreement with NetEase. Also weighing on sentiment was the People’s Bank of China’s emphasizes on financial stability and warns against potential inflation risks in the central bank’s Q3 monetary report, as well as news reports about the temporary suspension of redemption in some investment products suffering losses from the recent rise in Chinese bond yields. In addition, new Covid cases surged to 23,132, a new high since April. FX: GBP focus today as USD stabilizes on very strong October US Retail Sales report Strong US data is at odds with the recent drumbeat of softer inflation numbers that have helped inspired the recent steep sell-off in the US dollar, and kept the 2-year yields and Fed rate expectations from falling any further yesterday, even if longer US yields dipped to new local lows yesterday. The USD edged higher, with the recent lows the key support for the greenback and with the currency trading more in line with risk sentiment now. The top-tier incoming data won’t arrive until the early-mid December time frame, save perhaps for the PCE data on November 30. The bigger focus today is on GBP as Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is set to deliver the Autumn Budget Statement and a chance for thje market to judge whether the UK is an attractive place to invest in addition to whether the moves ill stabilize the country’s finances as it also risks worsening the depth of the coming recession. 1.2000 appears a key in GBPUSD, while EURGBP is choppy in the 0.8700-0.8800+ range. Crude oil (CLZ2 & LCOF3) Crude oil remains on the defensive trading near the lowest levels this month on continued concerns about the demand outlook in the world’s two largest consumers. The US yield curve has inverted the most since the early 1980’s underscoring concerns about the risk of recession next year while China continues to battle with rising covid cases, now nearing the all-time high seen earlier this year. Both developments leading to demand growth for next year being downgraded, thereby offsetting some of the tightness the EU embargo on Russian oil will help create into early 2023. WTI will be looking for support ahead of the recent low at $82 with Brent focusing on the $90-area. Gold (XAUUSD) Gold trades lower as the market pauses for breath following a 170-dollar run up in prices from the November 3 low. The metal is currently dealing with mixed signals as elevated recession worries, highlighted by the most inverted yield curve in almost four decades, are being offset by the biggest increase in US retail sales in eight months, indicating Fed tightening has further to run to bring inflation under control. Demand from ETF investors – net sellers for months – picked up a bit on Wednesday, but not enough to signal a change in their behaviour, and with that in mind expect continued consolidation and potentially a recheck of support at $1735. Resistance at $1788, the 38.2% retracement of the 2022 correction and $1804, the 200-day moving average. Copper (HGH3) and silver (XAGUSD) Copper and silver both extended their declines following a recent strong run up in prices. Copper ran out of steam ahead of major resistance in the $4/lb area and after breaking back below $3.78 the next line of support now comes in at $3.68. Industrial metal traders are keeping a watchful eye on covid developments in China, the US yield curve signalling an increased risk of a recession next year, extreme volatility in nickel market and in copper specifically, an emerging contango indicating a market with ample supply.  currently. Silver meanwhile trades back below its 200-day moving average with the first level of support in the $20.95 area. US treasuries (TLT, IEF) US treasuries punched to new local lows again yesterday, supported by a strong 20-year auction result, and despite the strong US Retail Sales news, with the 10-year treasury benchmark dipping below 3.70% and within 20 basis points of the next psychologically important level and pivot high from mid-June near 3.50%, a level that was quickly reached in the context of the market realizing that the FOMC was set for its first 75 basis point rate hike since 1994. The much-watched yield curve inversion between the 2-year and the 10-year widened to 67bps, the most invested since February 1982, and heightened the growth scare among investors. The market has largely priced in a 50bps hike in December and is unwinding some of the post-CPI optimism that the Fed might do less next year, after Fed’s George, Daly, Waller, and Williams pushed back on the notion of pausing. What is going on? Strong October US Retail Sales, weak November housing Market survey After a string of weak reports, the US October Retail Sales report came in far stronger than expected, with a strong +1.3 % MoM rise (vs. +1.0% expected) for the headline and an even more impressive +0.9% MoM rise in the “ex Food and Energy” print, on top of a +0.3% revision to the September data point. Elsewhere, we can see the massive shift higher in US mortgage rates continue to weigh on housing activity, as the November US NAHB Housing Market Index plunged 5 more points to 33, the lowest reading since the very worst month of the pandemic outbreak shock in 2020 and before that since 2012. Siemens Q4 results beat estimates The German industrial giant reports FY22 Q4 (ending 30 September) revenue of €20.6bn vs est. €19.3bn and orders of €21.8bn vs est. €20.4bn. In addition, the company says that it sees higher operating margins in three divisions and that downside risks from Russia are minimal now. Target reports earnings miss and downgrades sales guidance Target’s Q3 adjusted EPS fell to $1.54, nearly 30% below the median of analyst estimates. The retailer is predicting a drop in comparable sales for the first time in five years and estimating operating margins will shrink to about 3%, which is half of its previous forecast. This indicates that the substitution effect is increasing as the consumer is increasingly under more pressure. Target is looking to reduce $3bn in costs but says there will be no mass layoffs. Nvidia earnings beat Software graphics giant Nvidia (NVDA) reported revenue for the third quarter that beat analyst estimates. Revenue fell 17% y/y to $5.9bn, beating the expected drop of 18% y/y to $5.8bn. NVIDIA’s outlook for the fourth quarter was vague citing revenue is expected to hit $6.0bn, plus or minus 2%, which will translate into a 20% drop in revenue in the important holiday quarter. Nvidia also said Microsoft will use its graphics chips, networking products, and software in Microsoft’s new AI products. The slowdown in demand for GPUs is driven by less profitable crypto mining and as a result GPU pricing is plummeting and inventories on the balance sheet rising to $4.45bn up from $2.23bn a year ago. EPS was $0.28 down 73% y/y. Australia’s unemployment falls, employment rises more than expected in October Australia’s jobless rate unexpectedly fell to 3.4%, from 3.5% last month, which now supports the RBA continuing to raise rates, and not pause on hikes at their next meeting in December (market priced at 50-50 odds of a 25-bp hike). Australian employment rose by 32,200 month-on-month in October, almost double the 15,000 jobs expected to be added to the economy. The AUDUSD is staying range bound for now after its recent sharp rally, consolidating a bit on weak risk sentiment in Asia overnight. The RBA has said it expects the jobless rate to rise. US Fed’s Waller, noted Fed hawk, says he is “more comfortable” with smaller hike It appears that Fed consensus is settling on lowering the pace of rate increases at the December FOMC meeting after one of the more hawkish FOMC voters, Governor Christopher Waller said he is “more comfortable” with a smaller hike in December after the Fed’s four 75-basis points moves since the June FOMC meeting, although he still declared the move is data-dependent. What are we watching next? UK Autumn Budget Statement to be announced today Ahead of the speech, the UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility told the treasury that by 2026-27, the budget deficit could grow to £100 billion from earlier projections of £32 billion. Several moves by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt have already been made to reverse the original budget laid out by former Chancellor Kwarteng under PM Truss’ leadership, including a shortening of the energy bill cap scheme to just six months. Corporate taxes are also set to be raised to 25 percent from 19 percent, and windfall taxes on electricity and oil and gas firms, together with more income earners set to pay tax at the top 45% rate and taxes on capitali gains and dividends set to rise. Still, the pension benefit will be set to rise at September’s 10.1% CPI rate in April of next year. Critics might suggest that much of the tax implementation will be “back-loaded” to beyond the 2024 election to avoid a further hit to Tory popularity. This statement will be critical for the direction of sterling from here. Earnings to watch In today’s US earnings focus we expect Applied Materials to report revenue growth of 4% y/y and lower operating margin from a year ago following the signs we observe in the semiconductors industry. In the cyber security industry, Palo Alto Networks is also reporting today with revenue growth expected to 24% y/y and EBITDA of $349mn up from $-8.8mn a year ago. The Chinese technology and consumer sectors have faced a lot of headwinds over the past year and Tencent’s result yesterday was not rosy either, so there might be a downside risk to Alibaba’s result today. Analysts expect Alibaba to report revenue growth of 4% y/y and EPS of CNY 11.21 up 65% y/y. Today: Siemens, Alibaba, Applied Materials, Palo Alto Networks, NetEase Friday: JD.com Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0955 – UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt presents Autumn Budget Statement 1000 – Eurozone Oct. Final CPI 1230 – UK Bank of England Chief Economist Pill to speak 1300 – US Fed’s Bullard (voter 2022) to speak 1330 – US Oct. Housing Starts and Building Permits 1330 – US Oct. Philadelphia Fed 1330 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 1440 – US Fed’s Mester (Voter 2022) to speak 1530 – EIA's Weekly Natural Gas Storage Change  1540 – US Fed’s Jefferson and Kashkari (voter 2023) to speak 1600 – US Nov. Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity 1845 – US Fed’s Kashkari (voter 2023) to speak 2330 – Japan Oct. National CPI 0001 – UK Nov. GfK Consumer Confidence Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-nov-17-2022-17112022
Oanda Podcast: US Jobs Report, SVB Financial Fallout And More

Strong US Retail Sales | Crypto Contagion Continues

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 17.11.2022 10:45
Better-than-expected US retail sales didn’t please investors yesterday, as it fueled, again, inflation expectations. Higher inflation expectations fueled the hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. And hawkish Fed expectations fueled recession worries – without however Fed being there to disperse cheap money. Stock Market US indices gave back gains yesterday. The S&P500 slid 0.83% and Nasdaq fell 1.54%. Earnings Sour earnings from Target, which highlighted that nice-to-have stuff like clothes and electronics didn’t sell well in the latest quarter, because of rising prices, didn’t help lift the investor mood. US Elsewhere, JP Morgan economists said they expect the US to enter a mild recession next year because of the rising rates and the tightening monetary conditions. Global economy Prospect of slower global economy, along with the de-escalation of geopolitical tensions on news that the rockets that hit Poland this week were from the Ukrainian defense, and probably landed in Poland by accident, pulled oil prices lower yesterday. UK In the UK, the government will announce its much-expected budget today. It won’t be pretty for people, but it should be ok for investors. Crypto In cryptocurrencies, the knock-on effects of FTX collapse continue to be felt but Bitcoin price remains resilient near $16K. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:31 Strong US retail sales dampen mood 1:22 Target disappointed 3:25 JP hinted at mild US recession, oil fell 5:44 UK Budget Day! 7:32 Crypto contagion continues, but Bitcoin resists 8:59 Gold hits long-term trend top Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #UK #Budget #US #retail #sales #Walmart #Target #earnings #USD #GBP #XAU #Bitcoin #FTX #BlockFi #Genesis #Gemini #contagion #selloff #crude #oil #recession #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH
Saxo Bank Podcast: Nvidia And Siemens Earnings, The Budget Statement From UK And More

Saxo Bank Podcast: Nvidia And Siemens Earnings, The Budget Statement From UK And More

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 17.11.2022 11:01
Summary:  Today we look at risk sentiment taking a breather after a particularly strong US October US Retail Sales report, although long US treasury yields fell on the day and took the yield curve inversion to its most negative in over forty years as markets continue to price a recession ahead. The key incoming data doesn't start rolling in for another couple of weeks, so we wonder if a possible shift in weather into proper winter mode could change the complacent stance in energy markets. Elsewhere, we wonder if the Budget Statement from UK Chancellor Hunt can continue to support sterling, look at the plunge in coffee prices, Nvidia and Siemens earnings, and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are available via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/podcast/podcast-nov-17-2022-17112022
Brent hits one-month high! Saudi and Russian cuts supporting recent moves

Declines At The Close In The New York Stock Exchange

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 18.11.2022 08:03
At the close in the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.02%, the S&P 500 fell 0.31%, and the NASDAQ Composite fell 0.35%. Dow Jones The leading performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today was Cisco Systems Inc, which gained 2.20 points or 4.96% to close at 46.59. Merck & Company Inc rose 2.38 points or 2.38% to close at 102.31. Apple Inc rose 1.93 points or 1.30% to close at 150.72. The least gainers were Salesforce Inc, which shed 5.43 points or 3.50% to end the session at 149.69. The Walt Disney Company rose 2.66% or 2.50 points to close at 91.45 while American Express Company shed 1.27% or 1.93 points to close at 150. .64. S&P 500  Among the S&P 500 index components gainers in today's trading were Bath & Body Works Inc., which rose 25.18% to 38.97, Gap Inc, which gained 5.56% to close at 12.71., as well as shares of Qorvo Inc, which rose 5.25% to close the session at 97.70. The least gainers were West Pharmaceutical Services Inc, which shed 7.57% to close at 221.93. Shares of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd shed 6.77% to end the session at 16.40. Paycom Soft quotes fell 5.73% to 318.34. NASDAQ  The leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Ardelyx Inc, which rose 40.98% to hit 1.72, CytomX Therapeutics Inc, which gained 32.23% to close at 1.60, and shares of Cuentas Inc, which rose 28.00% to end the session at 0.32. The least gainers were shares of Inotiv Inc, which fell 56.97% to close at 6.82. Shares of Golden Sun Education Group Ltd lost 46.28% and closed the session at 2.31. Quotes Singularity Future Technology Ltd fell in price by 45.93% to 1.13. Numbers On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (1996) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1109), and the quotes of 147 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,280 companies fell in price, 1,467 rose, and 258 remained at the level of the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 0.75% to 23.93. Gold Gold futures for December delivery lost 0.70%, or 12.40, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for December delivery dropped 4.23%, or 3.62, to $81.97 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for January delivery fell 3.08%, or 2.86, to $90.00 a barrel. Forex Meanwhile, in the forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.23% to 1.04, while USD/JPY rose 0.46% to hit 140.18. Futures on the USD index rose by 0.37% to 106.55. Relevance up to 03:00 2022-11-19 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/301521
Bestway Might Have Larger Designs On The UK's Second Biggest Supermarket

UK Yields Rose Yesterday | The Chinese Electric Vehicle Market Showing Strong Growth

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 18.11.2022 09:01
Summary:  Market sentiment managed to bounce mid-session yesterday in the US and was steady overnight, with the USD back lower but still very range bound and US treasury yields rising off their lows, with a new extreme for the cycle in the yield-curve inversion, suggesting the market remains worried that the Fed’s tightening will lead to recession. The market shrugged off yesterday’s budget statement from UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt as most of the measures were flagged ahead of his speech.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) S&P 500 futures extended their declines yesterday to the 100-day moving average at around the 3,916 level driven by comments from Fed’s Bullard saying the sufficiently restrictive zone on policy rate was in the range 5-7% spooking markets. It is obvious, that the Fed is out trying to dampen expectations following the rally on the lower than estimated US October inflation print. S&P 500 futures are bounced back after the initial shock but closing lower for the session and this morning they are trading around the 3,950 level. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIX2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hang Seng Index snapped a two-day decline and bounced about 0.3% as of writing. China interest stocks led the charge higher following Alibaba reporting earnings beating expectations and adding to its share repurchase programme. The Chinese authorities’ grant of a new round of 70 online game licences to firms including Tencent and NetEase also help the market sentiment. Hang Sent Tech Index climbed 2%. In mainland bourses, healthcare shares gained as new Covid cases surged to above 25,000, a new high since April. Online gaming stocks rose on the new game license approval. Financials however continued to trade weak as investors are troubled by recent incidents of retail investment products losing heavily as bond yields rising in China. CSI 300 gained 0.2%. FX: USD rally eases on risk sentiment bounce of the lows yesterday The US dollar eased lower after a bout of weak risk sentiment was turned mid-session yesterday in New York and despite US treasury yields lifting all along the curve (with a new multi-decade low in the yield curve inversion suggesting the market remains concerned that the Fed’s tightening regime will lead to a recession. After the very sharp move lower off the back of the October CPI data, the USD has traded in a rather tight range in most places, with EURUSD bottled up near the 200-day moving average (currently 1.0414) and GBPUSD still hugging the 1.1900 area after the market shrugged off the autumn budget statement yesterday. Next week has the Thanksgiving holiday in the US, which usually sees light trading from Wednesday through Friday and the first key data is not up until the week after, so upcoming catalysts are not readily evident. Crude oil (CLZ2 & LCOF3) Crude dropped sharply yesterday to multi-week lows, trading as low as 89.53 in January Brent and 81.40 in December WTI. Concerns of weakening demand in China are purportedly behind some of the weakness yesterday, but with a new extreme in the yield curve inversion yesterday, rising market anticipation of an incoming recession is likely weighing on sentiment in oil. For the December WTI contract, the 81.30 level is the last significant pivot low ahead of the 75.70 September low for that contract. For January Brent, the  87.52 level is the last pivot low ahead of the 80.94 September low for that contract. Gold (XAUUSD) Pushed a bit lower yesterday on the rise in US treasury yields, trading above 1,760 this morning after the 1,786 high earlier this week. The 200-day moving average is near the important 1,800+ area. An extension of the recent rally likely requires further declines in yields and the US dollar or some other catalyst that sees a run to safety. US treasuries (TLT, IEF) US yields surged across the entire yield curve with yields rising the most in the front end. The 2-year yield jumped 10bps to 4.45% and the 10-year climbed 8bps to 4.77%. The 2-10 year spread inverted further hitting a new low of minus 71bps. Selling concentrated on the front end as St. Louis Fed President James Bullard referred to the “sufficiently restrictive level” being “5% to 5.25%” and “that’s a minimum”. In addition, Bullard showed a chart that suggested a range of terminal rates from 5% to 7%. Meanwhile, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said the Fed is “not there yet” to pause and it is an open question of how far the Fed needs to go. What is going on? Japan’s CPI increased more than expected in October Japan released its national CPI data which came in hotter than expected. Headline CPI grew 3.7% Y/Y (consensus: 3.6%, Sep: 3.0%). CPI excluding Fresh Food was 3.6% higher than last year (consensus: 3.5%, Sep: 3.0%) and CPI excluding Fresh Food and Energy increased 2.5% Y/Y in October (consensus: 2.4%, Sep: 1.8%). UK budget statement sees little market reaction, but huge Gilt issuance set for next year The mix of measures was more or less as anticipated, with many of the specific larger moves well flagged ahead of yesterday’s speech on the budget from UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt. After a strong surge in UK gilts (sovereign bonds), UK yields rose yesterday, as the Debt Management Office in the UK project that issuance of gilts in the 2023-24 financial year will rise almost 50% to £305 billion, with net issuance at £255 billion, almost double the previous high from 2011. Near term issuance to the end of the current fiscal year to April is expected somewhat lower than prior estimates. China urges local authorities to strike a better balance in pandemic control measures China’s National Health Commission urged local authorities to avoid “irresponsible loosening” of pandemic control measures. In a press briefing, health officials said local authorities “must continue to rectify the practice of excessive measures such as lockdowns and oppose the irresponsibility of evading a solution by loosening up”.The world’s second biggest lithium producer, SQM, sees lithium prices staying higher in 2023.SQM sees the Chinese electric vehicle market showing strong growth, buttressing solid demand for lithium. In its third quarter result, SQM’s income beat analyst estimates, rising by more than 10 times to $1.1 billion. The surge was fueled by the lithium price more than tripling over the past year, and rallying over 1,200% since 2020, amid tight supply and rising demand from EV makers. SQM sees the lithium market staying tight and higher prices for the rest of 2022 and into 2023. BHP (BHP) raised its takeover offer for copper giant, Oz Minerals (OZL) The offer was raised to $6.4 billion as global miners are hungry to boost copper production. Copper is a vital metal in electricity networks, electric vehicles, housing and renewable energy. BHP currently makes about 48.7% of its revenue from iron ore, 26.7% from copper, and 24.6% from thermal coal.What are we watching next? Earnings to watch today: JD.com Today’s earnings calendar is light with only the Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com reporting results. Analysts expect revenue growth of 11% y/y and EPS of $4.46 up 194% y/y on expanding EBITDA margin, but given the results from other Chinese companies we find it a bit unlikely that JD.com can deliver those types of results. Options expiry today in US to hit new record Options expire today on a notional $2.1 trillion in underlying instruments today as this month looks likely to set the record for options volume, with 46 million contracts in daily trading on average, up 12% from last month. Increasingly popular are contracts that expire within 24 hours, a phenomenon that may have driven the extreme volatility around the Thursday October CPI release last week. Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0830 – ECB President Lagarde to speak 1315 – UK Bank of England’s Catherine Mann to speak 1330 – Canada Oct. Home Price Index 1340 – US Fed’s Collins (non-voter) to speak 1500 – US Oct. Existing Home Sales 1500 – US Oct. Leading Index Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-nov-18-2022-18112022
Brent hits one-month high! Saudi and Russian cuts supporting recent moves

On The New York Stock Exchange Most Of Securities Rose

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.11.2022 08:00
At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 0.59%, the S&P 500 rose 0.48% and the NASDAQ Composite rose 0.01%. Dow Jones UnitedHealth Group Incorporated was the top performer among the Dow Jones index components in today's trading, up 14.69 points or 2.85% to close at 530.00. Quotes of Cisco Systems Inc rose by 1.20 points (2.58%), closing the session at 47.79. Merck & Company Inc rose 1.92 points or 1.88% to close at 104.23. The least gainers were Salesforce Inc, which shed 1.65 points or 1.10% to end the session at 148.04. Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc was up 0.95% or 0.38 points to close at 39.75 while Chevron Corp was down 0.60% or 1.10 points to close at 182. .99. S&P 500 Among the S&P 500 index components gainers today were Ross Stores Inc, which rose 9.86% to hit 107.59, Gap Inc, which gained 7.55% to close at 13.67, and shares of Lincoln National Corporation, which rose 4.37% to close the session at 37.73. The least gainers were Live Nation Entertainment Inc, which shed 7.85% to close at 66.21. Shares of Fortinet Inc lost 3.66% to end the session at 52.16. Diamondback Energy Inc lost 3.44% to 156.22. NASDAQ Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were AGBA Acquisition Ltd, which rose 50.67% to hit 6.78, Paxmedica Inc, which gained 37.42% to close at 2.13, and shares of Mercurity Fintech Holding Inc ADR, which rose by 32.91%, ending the session at around 1.05. Shares of Kiora Pharmaceuticals Inc were the biggest losers, losing 35.85% to close at 3.83. Shares of Bit Origin Ltd lost 29.80% and ended the session at 0.15. Quotes of InMed Pharmaceuticals Inc decreased in price by 28.13% to 2.76. Numbers On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (1884) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (1211), while quotes of 138 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 1985 companies rose in price, 1772 fell, and 237 remained at the level of the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 3.38% to 12/23. Gold Gold futures for December delivery lost 0.66%, or 11.65, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for December delivery fell 1.73%, or 1.41, to $80.23 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for January delivery fell 2.17%, or 1.95, to $87.83 a barrel. Forex Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged at 0.36% to 1.03, while USD/JPY rose 0.13% to hit 140.37. Futures on the USD index rose 0.25% to 106.86. Relevance up to 03:00 2022-11-22 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/301736
The China’s Covid Containment Continued To Negatively Impact The Output At The End Of 2022

In China The Outbreak Continues To Get Worse | The ECB Has Given Banks An Incentive To Get Rid Of Those Loans

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 21.11.2022 09:30
Summary:  Markets remain on edge amid lack of economic data but heavy focus on Fed commentaries which were mixed at best with Collins remaining hawkish but Bostic again signaling a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes. Meanwhile, covid outbreaks in China continue to get worse, keeping expectations of a Xi pivot also restrained. Commodities including oil and gold gave up recent gains on higher USD and China concerns. Weekend elections in Malaysia saw its first ever hung parliament, although not a complete surprise. What’s happening in markets? The Nasdaq 100 (NAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) traded sideways US equity markets had a lackluster session with modest gains on Friday. Nasdaq 100 was unchanged and the S&P 500 edged up 0.5%. Nine out of the 11 sectors within the S&P 500 gained, with utilities, up 2% being the top performer. Energy was the largest laggard, down 0.9% as WTI crude oil fell to as low as USD77.24 at one point before settling at USD80.08, down 1.9% on Friday and 10% for the week on the concerns of weakening demand. Retailers Foot Locker (FL:xnys), Rose Stores (ROST:xnas), and Gap (GPS:xnys) surged by 7% to 10% on earnings and guidance beating street estimates. US  treasury (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) yield rose as Fed member Collins keeping 75bps on the table Investors sold the front end of the treasury curve, seeing 2-year yield up 8bps to finish at 4.53% on Friday, following Boston Fed President Susan Collins kept the option of a 75bps hike in December open. Nonetheless, the money market curve continue to assign a higher than 80% chance of a 50bp hike in the next FOMC meeting. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HISX2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) consolidated on Friday but ended the week higher The risk-on sentiment in Hong Kong and mainland China faded towards the end of last week as investors became cautious about the surge of Covid cases in mainland China that might be testing the resolve of the Chinese authorities, in particular, that of the local governments to implement the 20-item guidelines of relaxing pandemic control measure. Hong Kong stock markets traded higher initially in the morning, led by China Internet stocks, following Alibaba (09988:xhkg) reporting earnings beating expectations and adding to its share repurchase programme and The Chinese authorities’ grant of a new round of 70 online game licences to firms including Tencent (00700:xhkg) and NetEase (0999:xhkg). China property developers declined and dragged the benchmark indices lower, after Moody’s warned that the recent government policy support to the mainland real estate sector was no game changer. Hang Seng Index dropped by 0.3% on Friday and gained 3.9% for the week. In mainland bourses, healthcare shares gained as new Covid cases surged to above 25,000, a new high since April. CSI 300 declined 0.5% on Friday and edged up by 0.3% for the week. Crude oil (CLZ2 & LCOF3) suffering from worsening Covid outbreak in China WTI futures took a look below the key $80/barrel mark on Friday amid the return of demand concerns as the Covid outbreak in China continued to get worse. Further developments over the weekend (read below) suggest further caution on Xi pivot expectations will likely remain. Meanwhile, the winter demand has so far remained restrained but the week ahead may bring further volatility as the deadline for European sanctions on Russia crude looms. NatGas prices were also lower after Freeport LNG announced initial operations are set to resume from their export facility in mid-December, one month later than prior guidance. Gold (XAUUSD) still eying the hawkish Fed Gold stayed short of making an attempt at the key $1800 level last week and was down over 1% as the USD gains returned amid the generally hawkish rhetoric from Fed speakers confirming more rate hikes remain in the pipeline. It is now testing the resistance-turned-support at 1750, and a move higher needs support from further declines in yields and the US dollar or some other catalyst that sees a run to safety. FX: NZD in gains ahead of RBNZ rate decision this week The Reserve Bank of New Zeeland is likely to deliver its sixth consecutive 50bps rate hike this week, or more with consensus tilting towards a larger 75bps move. The calls for a hike come amid hot inflation at 7.2% YoY in Q3 – well above the RBNZ’s 1-3% target – which comes in conjunction with a tight labour market. Most members of the RBNZ shadow board also supported a 75bps rate hike. NZDUSD started the week on a stronger footing, after having touched 0.62 on Friday. AUDNZD remains in a downtrend with China’s Covid outbreak as well as a relatively dovish RBA limiting the prospects for AUD.   What to consider? Fed’s Collins says 75bps still on the table for December, Bostic dovish Fed’s Boston Governor Collins appeared on a CNBC interview on Friday, and said she hasn’t decided on the magnitude of next month’s interest rate hike, but that a 75bps rate hike still remains on the table. She also emphasised that there is no clear and significant evidence that the overall inflation is coming down at this point, and there is also no clear consistent evidence of softening in labor markets. In fact, her comments raised terminal rate expectations as she said that data since September have kind of increased the top of where the Fed may need to go with interest rates. On the economy, she is concerned there could be a self-fulfilling dynamic that could make a more severe downturn more likely. However, Collins is reasonably optimistic a recession can be avoided. On the other hand, we also heard from Atlanta Fed Governor Raphael Bostic who said he favours slowing down the pace of rate hikes and also hinted that terminal rates will be about 1% pt higher from here. Worth noting however that Collins is only a voter this year (and not in 2023) while Bostic is not a voter this year or next. China’s Covid outbreak is getting worse China reported its first Covid-related death in nearly 6 months in Beijing as the outbreak continues to get worse and cast doubts on a Xi pivot. The capital added 516 cases on Sunday, and called the situation "grim." There are some retail and school closures, and the request to stay home was made over the weekend and has been extended. Meanwhile, a district in Guangzhou has imposed a 5-day lockdown to conduct mass coronavirus testing in some areas. ECB balance sheet reduction kicks off Euro zone banks are set to repay 296 billion euros in multi-year loans from the European Central Bank next week, less than the roughly 500 billion euros expected, in its latest step to fight runaway inflation in the Eurozone. The ECB has given banks an incentive to get rid of those loans by taking away a rate subsidy last month. It was its first move to mop up cash from the banking system and the first step towards unwinding its massive bond purchases. While the odds of a 50bos are still in favor for the December 15 meeting, key focus will also be on how fast this move can reverse the ECB's 3.3-trillion-euro Asset Purchase Programme. Christine Lagarde continued to sound the alarm on inflation, saying that even an economic downturn wont be enough to tame soaring prices. However, Knot hinted at slower pace of rate hikes, expecting rates to reach neutral next month. He still reaffirmed that policy needs to be restrictive and QT should be used alongside. UK retail sales signals a temporary recovery in consumer spending A rebound in UK’s retail sales for October signalled that Q4 may see concerns on consumer spending ease slightly. Retail sales grew 0.6% MoM in October after a decline of 1.5% in September. However the outlook remains bleak given the squeeze on incomes amid high inflation and the rise in interest rates. Political gridlock in Malaysia After Saturday’s election, Malaysia saw its first ever hung parliament as none of the three major coalitions won enough seats to form a majority, extending the political crisis in an economy on a fragile rebound. It is unlikely to be a big shock to the markets, as the results were generally as expected. The king has asked the parties to name their PM candidates by Monday afternoon, and while a coalition will likely be formed it is hardly enough to ensure a smooth functioning government. Ex-PM Mahathir lost the election while the ruling coalition was reduced to 30 seats, signalling a complete lack of trust in the political framework.   For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast. Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/market-insights-today-21-nov-2022-21112022
The Reserve Bank Of New Zeeland Is Likely To Deliver 50bps Rate Hike

The Reserve Bank Of New Zeeland Is Likely To Deliver 50bps Rate Hike

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 21.11.2022 10:06
Summary:  Markets are off to a sluggish start this week after a choppy session on Friday, with China reporting its first official Covid deaths in months, one in Beijing, and driving new headwinds for reopening hopes. The Hang Seng Index was down over 5% at one point overnight. The week ahead is a short one in the US, with markets closed there on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday. Wednesday sees the release of many preliminary manufacturing and services PMI.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) S&P 500 futures are trading slightly lower in early European trading hours driven by lower sentiment as China’s zero Covid policy is already under pressure with rising case numbers and the central bank, PBoC, urging stabilisation of financing to the real estate sector indicating how fragile this part of the economy is. The key level on the downside to watch in the S&P 500 futures is the 3,955 level and after that the 100-day moving average at around the 3,919 level. Euro STOXX 50 (EU50.I) European stocks are still up more than 20% from the lows in early October following better than expected macro news and mild weather on the continent. But it seems the good fortune might change now with the weather turning much colder in Northern Europe and if China is not opening up as fast and wide as expected that is a negative for European companies as China is the largest trading partner to Europe. STOXX 50 futures are trading around the 3,910 level with the 3,892 level being the first support level to watch on the downside and then the 3,873 level. FX: USD grinds higher on wobbly risk sentiment The US dollar traded firmer in the Asian session overnight after choppy action late last week as there has been no major follow up move in US yields after the huge reaction to the October CPI data release the week before. Risk sentiment seems to be the local driver here and major reversal levels for USD pairs are still quite distant, meaning the USD can continue to consolidate without major technical implications just yet. Examples of levels are the 1.0100 area in EURUSD, the 1.1600-50 area in GBPUSD and 0.6500-25 in AUDUSD. Little in the way of US macro data this week, although on Wednesday we do get the FOMC minutes, together with a dump of data points including Oct. Durable Goods Orders, weekly jobless claims, preliminary Nov. Manufacturing and Services PMI, and Oct. New Home Sales ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, with markets close in the US on Thursday and only partially open on Friday. Crude oil (CLZ2 & LCOF3) Crude oil dropped further to fresh multi-week lows in early Monday trading with January Brent touching 86.40 and December WTI below 80. The short-term outlook has been hurt by renewed dollar strength, the most inverted US yield curve in four decades signaling high risk of an economic recession, and not least China’s continued struggle with Covid (see below). Ahead of EU sanctions on Russian oil, which will reduce supply from early next year, the seasonal softness in demand has been exaggerated by the above-mentioned developments. Crude oil trades within a wide range, and it will take a break below the September low at $83.65 in Brent and $76.25 in WTI for that to change. Gold (XAUUSD) Gold trades lower for a fourth day with the market potentially targeting $1735 support. While a stronger dollar driven by FOMC hawks (see below) is weighing on prices, gold’s biggest short-term threat remains long liquidation from funds who in the runup to last week’s failed attempt to break resistance around $1800 had bought gold futures at the fastest pace since June 2019. During a two-week period to November 15 money managers bought 80k lots thereby flipping a short position to a 49k lots net long. During the same period holdings in bullion-backed ETFs continued to drop, signaling no appetite from longer-term focused investors to get involved. An extension of the recent rally likely requires further declines in yields and the US dollar driving fresh demand for ETFs or some other catalyst that sees a run to safety. US treasuries (TLT, IEF) US treasury yields rose slightly on Friday, but have fallen back to start the weak amidst soft risk sentiment in Asia. Friday saw the yield curve inversion reaching a new extreme for the cycle at –72 bps for the 2-10 slope. For the 10-year yield, the cycle low is 3.67%, with considerable focus on the 3.50% level (the major high from June just after the FOMC meeting), while an upside reversal would require a jump well through 4.00%. What is going on? China’s Covid outbreak is getting worse China reported its first official Covid-related death in nearly 6 months in Beijing as the outbreak continues to get worse and cast doubts on a Xi pivot. The capital added 516 cases on Sunday and called the situation "grim." There are some retail and school closures, and the request to stay home was made over the weekend and has been extended. Meanwhile, a district in Guangzhou has imposed a 5-day lockdown to conduct mass coronavirus testing in some areas. China focused commodities have taken a haircut on the recent deterioration on concerns tighter restrictions could be enforced, while China implements its new 20-point tweaking covid restriction plan, aimed at minimising disruptions to people’s daily lives and the economy. The iron ore (SCOc1) price fell almost 4% on Monday in Asia while copper has lost 8% during the last week. Hopes regarding China’s property sector remain after the nation introduced a property rescue package last week. Netherlands trade minister says US cannot impose trade restrictions on Netherlands Referencing the US’ ban against exports of key advanced semiconductor production technology, the Netherland’s trade minister said Friday. This was among signs that Europe is seeking a “middle path” on its policy toward China after US President Biden’s administration asked key allies to comply with its ban as well. French President Macron Friday also pushed back against the idea of dividing the world into rival blocs, while German Chancellor Scholz visited China two weeks ago looking for economic reconciliation between the two countries. Sweden house prices down 3% m/m in October This takes the decline in house prices down 14% from the peak sounding off the alarms at the Riksbank and commercial banks as the house price declines will drive impairments on loans related to the sector. This could in turn lead to lower credit extension from banks into the private sector and thus slow down the economy further. ECB Christine Lagarde reaffirms high inflation remains the number one issue In a speech on Friday, ECB president Christine Lagarde confirmed once again that the central bank will mostly focus on fighting inflation in the short- and medium-term. According to her, the risk of a recession in the eurozone has significantly increased but even if this happens, it is unlikely to quell inflation significantly. This means that hiking interest rates is still on the cards. She also advises the eurozone government to embrace targeted and temporary fiscal stimulus. Too much fiscal stimulus is likely to stimulate demand, thus increasing inflationary pressures. Based on the detailed eurozone HIPC report for October which was released a few days ago, there is so far no sign whatsoever of a peak in underlying inflation pressure. In our view, we should not take for granted that the ECB will slow the pace of hikes to 50 basis points in December. COT report shows major rotation between commodity sectors The weekly Commitment of Traders report covering the week to November 15 saw speculators make some major position adjustments as the dollar and yields dropped, a further inversion of the US yield curve raising the risk of an incoming recession as well as temporary hopes China would ease its Covid restrictions. Developments that saw funds reduce exposure in energy and grains while adding length to metals and softs. The biggest changes being a sharp reduction in speculative bets in crude oil, soybeans, corn and cattle while buying was concentrated in gold, copper, sugar and cocoa. What are we watching next? NZD gains ahead of RBNZ rate decision this week The Reserve Bank of New Zeeland is likely to deliver its sixth consecutive 50bps rate hike this week, or more with consensus tilting towards a larger 75bps move. The calls for a hike come amid hot inflation at 7.2% YoY in Q3 – well above the RBNZ’s 1-3% target – which comes in conjunction with a tight labour market. Most members of the RBNZ shadow board also supported a 75bps rate hike. NZDUSD started the week on a stronger footing, after having touched 0.62 on Friday. AUDNZD remains in a downtrend with China’s Covid outbreak as well as a relatively dovish RBA limiting the prospects for AUD. Fed’s Collins says 75bps still on the table for December, Bostic dovish Fed’s Boston Governor Collins appeared on a CNBC interview on Friday and said she hasn’t decided on the magnitude of next month’s interest rate hike, but that a 75bps rate hike remains on the table. She also emphasised that there is no clear and significant evidence that the overall inflation is coming down at this point, and there is also no clear consistent evidence of softening in labor markets. In fact, her comments raised terminal rate expectations as she said that data since September have kind of increased the top of where the Fed may need to go with interest rates. On the economy, she is concerned there could be a self-fulfilling dynamic that could make a more severe downturn more likely. However, Collins is reasonably optimistic a recession can be avoided. On the other hand, we also heard from Atlanta Fed Governor Raphael Bostic who said he favours slowing down the pace of rate hikes and hinted that terminal rates will be about 1% pt higher from here. Worth noting however that Collins is only a voter this year (and not in 2023) while Bostic is not a voter this year or next. Earnings to watch Today’s US earnings focus is Zoom Video and Dell Technologies. After being a darling through the pandemic Zoom Video has experienced revenue growth coming down to 4.4% y/y expected in the FY23 Q3 (ending 31 October) release down from 35% y/y a year ago. The company is well run but is facing intense competition in the video conferencing business. Dell Technologies will likely highlight the trends we already know of slowing PC sales and lower spending on enterprise technology driven by a slowing economy and falling share price in the technology sector. Today: Compass, Agilent Technologies, Zoom Video, Dell Technologies Tuesday: Kuaishou Technology, Medtronic, Analog Devices, VMware, Autodesk, Dollar Tree, Baidu, HP, Best Buy Wednesday: Xioami, Prosus, Deere Friday: Meituan, Pinduoduo Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 1330 – US Oct. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 1800 – US Fed’s Daly (Voter 2024) to speak 2145 – New Zealand Oct. Trade Balance  Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-nov-21-2022-21112022
At The Close On The New York Stock Exchange Indices Closed Mixed

The Minutes Of Fed May Help Shape The Upcoming Week On Wall Street

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.11.2022 13:21
The minutes of the November meeting of the Federal Reserve are expected to help shape the upcoming week on Wall Street, which is shortened due to the holidays. U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed Thursday, Nov. 24, due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Also, on Black Friday, trading will close early. The report on the discussions at the U.S. central bank meeting earlier this month, due out Wednesday, will be the highlight of the economic calendar in the coming days. The earnings calendar will also be relatively sparse as the third quarter reports come to a close. Stocks posted a loss last week despite a modest gain on Friday after hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve dampened optimism. The S&P 500 fell 0.7% last week: Nasdaq Composite lost about 1.6% as central bank members said they intend to continue aggressive policy tightening. The Dow Jones Industrial Average remained virtually unchanged over the week: Minutes from the latest meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) show that officials are planning a half-point rate hike at their December meeting. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at a press conference that he and his colleagues have some avenues to mitigate rising prices, acknowledging that the inflation picture has become more complex. An aggressive increase in interest rates could lead to a recession in the U.S. economy, and Fed officials have recently become more open about this risk. Goldman Sachs raised its Fed rate forecast to a range of 5% to 5.25%, adding another 25 basis point hike in May, noting that the investment bank's exposure to its Fed outlook has turned up. "Inflation is likely to remain uncomfortably high for a while, and this could put pressure on the FOMC to deliver a longer string of small hikes next year," economists led by Jan Hatzius said. Wall Street is nearing the end of its reporting season, but the results from Dell (DELL), J.M. Smucker (SJM), Zoom Video (ZM) and Dollar Tree (DLTR) will be some of the key corporate updates in the report. According to FactSet Research, fewer companies are expressing recession fears in the third quarter compared to the second quarter. Of the S&P 500 companies that reported earnings between Sept. 15 and Nov. 16, 26% fewer companies mentioned the term "recession," with 179 mentioning the word, compared with 242 in the reporting period for the most recent quarter. Still, according to FactSet, this quarter still ranks third among companies stressing fears of a potential economic downturn, at least since 2010.     Relevance up to 10:00 2022-11-26 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/327652
Swiss Inflation Falls Below Expectations; US Markets Closed, Fed Minutes Awaited

RBNZ Could Deliver A 75bps Rate Hike This Week | A Big Beat For Dell

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 22.11.2022 08:40
Summary:  Risk off tone in the markets spilled over to the US session on Monday after a fresh surge in Covid cases in China. Fed speakers tilted neutral-to-dovish, but the USD has turned more risk-sensitive rather than being yield-sensitive and ended the day stronger, especially against the Japanese yen. Oil prices whipsawed, falling 6% on OPEC output boost speculation which was later denied by Saudi Arabia, and Gold tested key support as well. Earnings from Zoom and Dell beat consensus, but a consistent message on a tough Q4 continued to dampen sentiment. What’s happening in markets? The Nasdaq 100 (NAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) closed in the red Nasdaq 100 dropped by 1.1% and S&P500 slid 0.4% in a relatively quiet session. The sentiment was dampened slightly by concerns of potential China backtracking in easing Covid control measures as new cases surged. On the other hand, dovish-leaning comments from the Fed’s Bostic and Daly boosted the sentiment somewhat. Among the sectors of the S&P 500, consumer discretionary, energy, and communication services declined the most. Tesla (TSLA:xnas) plunged 6.8% on a recall of over 300,000 cares for tail-lamp issues and the Covid outbreak in China. Walt Disney (DIS:xnys) surged 6.3% after Robert Iger, the entertainment giant’s former chairman and CEO to return as CEO, replacing Bob Chapek. US treasuries (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) finished a choppy session little changed The dovish comments from Atlanta President Bostic and San Francisco Fed President about the slowing the pace in December and a terminal rate potentially of around 5% did not have much market impact. The 2-year yield edged up 2bps to 4.55%. The long end however caught a bid in early New York trading, with the 10-year yield falling as much as 7bps to 3.76% at one point when the crude oil price fell over 6% to as low as USD75.08 intraday. The 10-year pared gains and finished the day unchanged at 3.83%.  The Australian share market opens 0.6% higher on Tuesday Bright sparks are in lithium, fertilizers, coal and banking. Lithium company Pilbara Minerals trades 4% higher and Allkem (AKE) ais also up about 3% with sentiment in the lithium sector buoyed after lithium giant SQM shares rose almost 10% in NY on announcing a US$3.08 dividend per share following their optimistic update last week. SQM also operates in fertizliers as well, so ASX fertilizers companies are seeing a sentiment uptick with Incitec Pivot (IPL) are trading higher. Coal companies such as Whitehaven (WHC) and New Hope (NHC) also are trading sharply higher with large block trades coming through with traders expecting higher prices for coal in January. Also in commodities, it’s worth watching copper company Oz Minerals (OZL) as options trading volume increased dramatically after BHP increased their takeover offer for company. Yesterday OZL options volume was almost 7 times the 20-day average, with 5,000 calls and zero puts, meaning the market expects a higher price for OZL. In banking Virgin Money (VUK), trades up 13% today after the London listed stock rose 15%. Virgin reported stronger than expected profits for the year to Sept. 30 and upgraded its outlook on Monday, saying it expects its net interest margin to expand in the medium term. Virgin Money’s Slyce, a buy-now-pay-later product that launched earlier this year, had a waitlist of about 40,000. So many are thinking the business could be potentially turning around.  Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HISX2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) declined as Covid cases surged Investors turned their focus on how the Chinese authorities would be handling the surge in Covid cases towards the April high and whether China would backtrack the 20 fine-tuning pandemic control measures. Hang Seng Index fell by 1.9% and Hang Seng TECH Index plunged by 3%, with China Internet, consumer, Macau gaming, and EV stocks leading the decline. JD.com (09618:xhkg), Alibaba (09988:xhkg), and Meituan (03690:xhkg) dropped by around 5% each. In mainland bourses, CSI 300 slid 0.9%. Food and beverage, beauty care, services, and media stocks were the major laggards. Kweichow Moutai (600519:xssc), and Wuliangye Yibin (000858:xsec) fell by around 3% each.  FX: Dollar strength returns, mainly on the back of Japanese yen Risk off tone from the fresh surge in cases in China prompted a bid tone in the US dollar on Monday. Fed speakers were neutral-to-dovish, lacking the hawkish push seen from Collins and Bullard last week, but as we have written before, dollar is turning to be less yield-sensitive now, but more risk-sensitive as it draws safe haven flows. USDJPY rose above 142 with US 2-year yields inching above 4.55% and 10-year also somewhat higher. Even as the pace of Fed rate hikes slows down, most members have called for over 5% terminal rate, suggesting downside for the Japanese yen may be close but pressure isn’t completely off yet. Disappointing German PPI and dollar strength pushed EURUSD lower to 1.0222 lows.  Crude oil (CLZ2 & LCOF3) whipsaws on OPEC+ reports A volatile day for crude oil amid reports that OPEC was planning to lift production. Oil prices fell sharply with WTI touching $75/barrel and Brent below $84after the Wall Street Journal reported that OPEC+ alliance was considering an output increase of 500kb/d in light of the looming EU ban on Russian oil imports. Oil pared these losses after Saudi Arabia denied the report; instead insisting that the current cut of 2mb/d was in place until the end of 2023. Demand concerns broadly remained with rising virus cases in China and slowing global consumption as central banks around the world continue to tighten policy. A stronger dollar also weighed on oil prices.  Gold (XAUUSD) tested the key 1735 support A stronger dollar continued to push Gold lower on Monday, and it tested the key support at $1735. With FOMC minutes due this week, and more Fed speakers on the horizon, there may be more talk about a higher terminal rate pricing even as the pace of rate hike slows from December. This, together with the risk of repeat lockdowns in China, could continue to weigh on the precious metal. An extension of the recent rally likely requires further declines in yields and the US dollar driving fresh demand for ETFs or some other catalyst that sees a run to safety. What to consider Development in China’s handling of the Covid outbreak across large cities to watch Daily new cases in mainland China surged to 26,824, a new high since April. Beijing reported three Covid deaths, the first time in more than half a year. Part of the population in Guangzhou, Beijing, Chengdu, Zhengzhou, and Shizjiazhung are urged to stay home or under some sort of movement restrictions. It is a testing time for the local authorities of how to control the outbreak and implement the recently released fine-tuning measures to minimize disruption to daily lives and economic activities. The People’s Daily published an article to call for handling pandemic control scientifically and with precision in the spirit of the 20 fine-turning measures. The National Health Commission released four documents to provide further guidelines on how to do PCR testing, management of high-risk districts, quarantine at home, and health surveillance. As Hong Kong’s Chief Executive John Lee was tested positive and he sat near President Xi in some meetings during the APEC Summit last week, investors are also closing watch if President will meet Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel when the latter visit China on Nov 24.  Fed’s Daly tilted dovish, while Mester was more neutral Mary Daly (2024 voter) called on the Fed to be mindful of the lagging impact hikes have on the economy.She suggested financial conditions are tighter than what is suggested by Fed rates, saying financial markets are priced like the FFR is at 6%, not 3.75-4.00%.She also said the Fed must be mindful of overdoing rate hikes but there is still more work to be done but inflation is moving in the right direction. She noted policy is in modestly restrictive territory but she sees it peaking at around 5%, saying 4.725-5.25% is reasonable. Meanwhile, 2022 voter Mester said it makes sense to slow down the pace of rate hikes and believes they can slow down from 75bps in December.Mester is beginning to see the Fed's actions work but they need more, sustained good news. She thinks the Fed is just barely there in regards to restrictive territory, adding they need to get there. Disappointing guidance from Zoom (ZM) Zoom reported Q3 EPS of $1.07, $0.24 better than the analyst estimate of $0.83. Revenue for the quarter came in at $1.1 billion versus the consensus estimate of $1.09B. But guidance disappointed as with expectations penned lower than consensus as Q4 2023 EPS of $0.75-$0.78 was seen, vs. the consensus of $0.80. Zoom sees Q4 2023 revenue of $1.095-1.105B, versus the consensus of $1.12B.  Dell Technologies (DELL) beats consensus A big beat for Dell as it reported third-quarter adjusted EPS of $2.30 on revenue of $24.7 billion, compared with estimates for $1.61 per share and $24.4B, respectively. However, PC demand remained weak and weighed on demand outlook, while Q3 were boosted by favorable corporate-PC positioning and robust operational execution to drive the margin and EPS beat.  RBNZ’s hawkishness to continue to outperform while Riksbank to play catchup The monetary policy decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will be key on Wednesday to determine the direction of NZD, which has seen strong gains over the past month from higher hawkishness. After a series of 50bps rate hikes, there are some expectations that RBNZ could deliver a 75bps rate hike this week, as inflation and labour market conditions support the case for further front-loading. Inflation has reached 7.2% YoY in Q3 – well above the RBNZ’s 1-3% target. Most members of the RBNZ shadow board also supported a 75bps rate hike. Meanwhile, the Riksbank has been lagging other G10 central banks in tightening policy and is now playing catch up after delivering a 100bp hike in September. The Riksbank is expected to deliver a 75bps hike on Thursday while another 100bps hike can’t be ruled out.     For our look ahead at markets this week - Listen/watch our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/market-insights-today-22-nov-2022-22112022
Analysis Of Tesla: A Temporary Corrective Rally Should Not Come As A Surprise

Negative Sentiment Over Massive Recalls Of Tesla Cars In The US

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 22.11.2022 10:23
Summary:  Markets started the week in a downbeat mood with a weak session in the US yesterday. China posted another weak session as the rise in China Covid cases there has dogged sentiment since the weekend. Crude oil was slammed with a huge sell-off on a report from WSJ that key swing producer Saudi is considering a production boost, but the sell-off was entirely erased yesterday by the end of the day on official Saudi sources denying the story.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) S&P 500 futures are in a slow grinding downward trend from the recent peak over a week ago trading around the 3,955 level this morning with the 3,920 level being the first support level to watch and then the big 3,900 level. Key risk sources to monitor are the USD, falling Tesla share price which could spill over into other pockets of the market, and the potential bankruptcy of the crypto company Genesis. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HISX2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Daily new cases in mainland China continued to surge. Hang Seng Index fell 0.8% while CSI 300 managed to edge up 0.5%. China internet shares slid. On the other hand, SOE telecommunication and infrastructure stocks surged as the Chairman of China Securities Regulatory Commission said listed state-owned enterprises are undervalued by stock investors. China Unicom (00762:xhkg) jumped nearly 10% and China Communications Construction (01800:xhkg) surged 9%. FX: Dollar strength returns, mainly against the Japanese yen Risk off tone from the fresh surge in Covid cases in China prompted a bid tone in the US dollar yesterday. Fed speakers were neutral-to-dovish, lacking the hawkish push seen from Collins and Bullard last week, but as we have written before, the dollar seems to be less yield-sensitive now, but more risk-sensitive as it draws safe haven flows. USDJPY rose above 142 with US 2-year yields inching above 4.55% and 10-year also somewhat higher near 3.80%. USDJPY is unlikely to mount a full bullish reversal above the key 145.000 area unless US 10-year yields threaten back above 4.00% (and hit sentiment once again). Elsewhere, EURUSD bottomed out at 1.0222 yesterday, still well above meaningful downside pivot levels, the first being the 1.0100 area. Crude oil (CLZ2 & LCOF3) Crude oil prices whipsawed on Monday in response to a later denied report from the Wall Street Journal that the Saudis together with OPEC+ was considering hiking production by 500,000 barrels a day ahead of the EU embargo on Russian oil. The price quickly dropped $5 to a ten-month low before rallying to end the day close to unchanged. A move that left both buyers and sellers hurting, potentially worsening an already troubled market that is suffering from falling volumes and lower open interest given the current lack of clarity regarding demand and supply, and the potential impact of a G7-planned price-cap-plan on Russian seaborne flows. Russia may retaliate against the plan by refusing to supply crude oil to those involved. Demand concerns, however, broadly remain with rising virus cases in China (see below), slowing global consumption as central banks around the world continue to tighten policy and the stronger dollar weigh on prices Gold (XAUUSD) testing support at $1735 A stronger dollar continued to push Gold lower on Monday, and it tested the key support at $1735. In the short-term the direction will be determined by fund activity and whether they need to make further reductions in recently established, and now under water, long positions. With FOMC minutes due this week, and more Fed speakers on the horizon, there may be more talk about a higher terminal rate pricing even as the pace of rate hike slows from December. This, together with the risk of repeat lockdowns in China, could continue to weigh on the precious metal. An extension of the recent rally likely requires further declines in yields and the US dollar driving fresh demand for ETFs or some other catalyst that sees a run to safety. Silver (XAGUSD) meanwhile trades higher for the first time in six days after retracing 50% of the recent rally. US treasuries (TLT, IEF) US treasury yields are a bit adrift here, awaiting the next incoming data for next steps, with tomorrow’s batch of US data unlikely to move the needle as we await next Wednesday’s PCE inflation data and next Friday’s November US jobs report. The key upside swing area for the 10-year yields is near 4.00%, while the major downside focus beyond the 3.67% pivot low is the 3.50% cycle high from June. The 2-10 yield curve inversion remains near its lows for the cycle, at –70 basis points this morning. What is going on? Development in China’s handling of the Covid outbreak across large cities to watch The number of new Covid-19 cases hit 27,307 and reportedly more than 40 cities across the country are under some sort of lockdown or movement. Guangzhou, the provincial capital of Guangdong reported over 8,000 new cases and Chongqing seconded with over 6,000 new cases. So far, the municipal government of Guangzhou avoids adopting stringent lockdowns. However, Chongqing the manufacturing hub of Western China has rolled out more stringent lockdown. Chinese local governments are struggling to strike the right balance between adhering to zero-Covid policy and minimising disruption to daily lives and economic activities. The swing from abandoning PCR testing a week ago but only to reinstate mandatory testing days later in the city of Shijiazhuang was an example of such dilemma. On a positive note, the People's Daily published an article to call for handling pandemic control scientifically and with precision in the spirit of the 20 fine-tuning measures. The National Health Commission released four documents to provide further guidelines on how to do PCR testing, management of high-risk districts, quarantine at home, and health surveillance. Tesla decline could ignite risk-off Shares were down 7% yesterday following negative sentiment over massive recalls of Tesla cars in the US and renewed uncertainty as China is battling with reopening its society. Investors are also increasingly worried that CEO Elon Musk is spending too much time on his Twitter acquisition and that his recent behaviour around Twitter is damaging his brand and ultimately Tesla’s brand. We know from surveys that there is a large overlap in investors owning cryptocurrencies, Tesla, and Ark Innovation ETF. UK retail sales signals a temporary recovery in consumer spending A rebound in UK’s retail sales (the release is a volume-based measure) for October signalled that Q4 may see concerns on consumer spending ease slightly. Retail sales grew 0.6% MoM in October after a decline of 1.5% in September. The outlook, however, remains bleak given the squeeze on incomes amid high inflation and the rise in interest rates. Disappointing guidance from Zoom (ZM) Zoom reported Q3 EPS of $1.07, $0.24 better than the analyst estimates of $0.83. Revenue for the quarter came in at $1.1 billion versus the consensus estimate of $1.09B. But guidance disappointed as with expectations penned lower than consensus as Q4 2023 EPS of $0.75-$0.78 was seen, vs. the consensus of $0.80. Zoom sees Q4 2023 revenue of $1.095-1.105B, versus the consensus of $1.12B. Dell Technologies (DELL) beats consensus A big beat for Dell as it reported third quarter adjusted EPS of $2.30 on revenue of $24.7 billion, compared with estimates for $1.61 per share and $24.4B, respectively. However, PC demand remained weak and weighed on demand outlook, while Q3 were boosted by favourable corporate-PC positioning and robust operational execution to drive the margin and EPS beat. What are we watching next? RBNZ up tonight with market uncertain of size of hike. Sweden’s Riksbank up tomorrow The monetary policy decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will be key on Wednesday to drive the direction of NZD, which has seen strong gains over the past month from anticipation that the RBNZ may stay on a determined tightening path. After a series of 50bps rate hikes, there are some expectations that RBNZ could deliver a 75-bp rate hike tonight to take the rate to 4.25%, as inflation and labour market conditions support the case for further front-loading. Inflation reached 7.2% YoY in Q3 – well above the RBNZ’s 1-3% target. Most members of the RBNZ shadow board also supported a 75-bp rate hike. Meanwhile, the Riksbank has been lagging other G10 central banks in tightening policy and is now playing catch up after delivering a 100-bp hike in September. The Riksbank is expected to deliver a 75-bp hike on Thursday, with some looking for another 100-bp move. Crypto lender Genesis in the spotlight on bankruptcy risk Genesis, a large crypto lender and creditor to the FTX fraud operation that recently blew up, is looking for up to $1 billion in funding and has warned that it may have to file for bankruptcy if it is unable to find funding, also claiming that the risk of bankruptcy is not imminent. Bitcoin trades today near the cycle lows below 16,000 as the market cap of the entire crypto space has dipped below $800 billion. Earnings to watch Today’s US earnings focus is technology earnings from VMware, Autodesk, and HP. On the consumer sector, investors will be watching earnings from Dollar Tree and Best Buy. Analysts expect HP revenue growth to be down 12% y/y in FY22 Q4 (ending 31 October) as PC sales and enterprise technology spending are down from the high levels during the pandemic. Today: Kuaishou Technology, Medtronic, Analog Devices, VMware, Autodesk, Dollar Tree, Baidu, HP, Best Buy Wednesday: Xiaomi, Prosus, Deere Friday: Meituan, Pinduoduo Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0830 – Australia RBA’s Lowe to speak 1300 – Hungary Central Bank Rate Decision 1330 – Canada Sep. Retail Sales 1415 – UK Office for Budget Responsibility testifies to Parliament 1500 – Eurozone Nov. Preliminary Consumer Confidence 1500 – US Nov. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 1600 – US Fed’s Mester (Voter 2022) to speak 1645 – Canada Bank of Canada’s Rogers to speak 1915 – US Fed’s George (Voter 2022) to speak 1945 – US Fed’s Bullard (Voter 2022) to speak 2130 – API's Weekly Report on US Oil Inventories 0100 – New Zealand RBNA Official Cash Rate  Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-nov-22-2022-22112022
Brent hits one-month high! Saudi and Russian cuts supporting recent moves

The New York Stock Exchange: The Dow Jones Rose 1.18% To A 3-Month High

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.11.2022 08:24
At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 1.18% to a 3-month high, the S&P 500 rose 1.36% and the NASDAQ Composite rose 1.36%.  Dow Jones The leading performer among the Dow Jones index components in today's trading was Intel Corporation, which gained 0.88 points or 3.04% to close at 29.82. Salesforce Inc rose 4.40 points or 3.04% to close at 149.25. Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc rose 1.20 points or 2.96% to close at 41.79. The least gainer was Walt Disney Company, which shed 1.37 points or 1.40% to end the session at 96.21. Amgen Inc was up 1.11 points (0.39%) to close at 287.05, while Boeing Co was down 0.44 points (0.25%) to close at 172.50.   S&P 500 Leading gainers among the components of the S&P 500 in today's trading were Best Buy Co Inc, which rose 12.78% to 79.88, Agilent Technologies Inc, which gained 8.08% to close at 156.86. as well as shares of CF Industries Holdings Inc, which rose 6.72% to close the session at 109.68. The least gainers were Dollar Tree Inc, which shed 7.79% to close at 152.37. Shares of Rollins Inc lost 6.14% to end the session at 39.53. Quotes of Medtronic PLC decreased in price by 5.30% to 77.93.  NASDAQ Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Cosmos Holdings Inc, which rose 86.93% to hit 0.33, Palisade Bio Inc, which gained 81.08% to close at 4.02, and also shares of Motorsport Gaming Us LLC, which rose 51.11% to close the session at 6.80. The least gainers were Eqonex Ltd shares, which lost 32.81% to close at 0.14. Shares of WiSA Technologies Inc lost 21.56% and ended the session at 0.20. Quotes of AGBA Acquisition Ltd decreased in price by 22.94% to 4.87. Numbers On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (2345) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (761), while quotes of 110 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2259 companies rose in price, 1542 fell, and 236 remained at the level of the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 4.79% to 21.29, hitting a new 3-month low. Gold Gold futures for December delivery added 0.07%, or 1.15, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for January delivery rose 1.41%, or 1.13, to $81.17 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for January delivery rose 1.22%, or 1.07, to $88.52 a barrel. Forex Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD rose 0.62% to hit 1.03, while USD/JPY shed 0.65% to hit 141.20. Futures on the USD index fell 0.63% to 107.05.     Relevance up to 04:00 2022-11-24 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/302134
The Commodities Feed: OPEC+ meeting ahead

Western Countries Are Set To Agree On Russian Oil Price Cap

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 23.11.2022 09:06
Summary:  U.S. equity benchmark indices gained over 1%, with energy being the best-performing sector as WTI crude bounced 1.5% on a larger-than-expected draw in private US crude inventory data and continued denials from OPEC+ about any production increases. Deliberations on caps on Russian energy remain on watch. Fed speakers continued to steadily pushback against pivot expectations, and FOMC minutes will be key today. Lower yields and a weaker dollar saw gold steady ahead of key support. Investors are also watching closely the development of the Covid-19 outbreak in China. What’s happening in markets? The Nasdaq 100 (NAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) Nasdaq 100 gained 1.5% and S&P 500 rose by 1.4%. All 11 sectors within the S&P 500 gained, led by energy, materials, and information technology. Trading was thin ahead of Thanksgiving. Investors were not overly troubled by yet another round of hawkish-leaning remarks from Fed officials on Tuesday. Best Buy (BBY:xnys), surging 12.7%, was the best performer in the S&P 500. The consumer electronic retailer reported better-than-expected earnings driven by smaller-than-feared declines in revenues and margins. On the other hand, Dollar Tree Store (DLTR:xnas), a discount store chain, tumbled 7.8%, after reporting earnings beat but downbeat Q4 guidance on margin pressure. US treasuries (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) In spite of a weak 7-year auction, treasuries were well bid over the day on Tuesday, in particular for the long end. The 2-year yield fell 4bps to 4.51% and the 10-year yield closed 7bps richer at 3.76%. Following a series of remarks from Fed officials since last week to push back to the market speculation of an early pause at a lower terminal rate next year, investors are adding onto their bets for a recession in the U.S. in 2023. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HISX2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Daily new cases in mainland China continued to surge and approach the April high. Hang Seng Index fell 1.3% while CSI 300 managed to finish the session flat. Southbound investments registered an HKD5.8 billion net outflow, the largest outflow since August 2021. Southbound investors sold a net HKD3.5 billion of Tracker Fund (02800;xhkg) and HKD1.7 billion of Meituan (03690:xhkg). Meituan tumbled 8.3% and was the worst performer among stocks in the Hang Seng Index on Tuesday. On the other hand, SOE telecommunication and infrastructure stocks surged as the Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission said listed state-owned enterprises were undervalued by stock investors. China Unicom (00762:xhkg) gained 6.8% and China Communications Construction (01800:xhkg) rose by 8.4%. China Aluminum (02068) surged 25.5% after jumping as much as 42.8% at one point. FX: Dollar weakens as risk sentiment stabilizes Data and news flow was thin on Tuesday before it picks up today with FOMC minutes and PMIs due ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday. Fed speakers Mester and George added little new information, continuing to reaffirm that the fight against inflation had further room to run. US Richmond Fed marginally improved, albeit still negative with mixed details. Philly Fed non-manufacturing survey improved slightly, but firm-level business activity dropped into negative territory alongside full-time employment falling. Dollar slid to lows of 107.11, with gains led by NOK and NZD (ahead of RBNZ meeting where expectations are for a 75bps rate hike). EURUSD is poking at 1.032 while USDJPY is attempting a move below 141. Crude oil (CLZ2 & LCOF3) Crude oil prices were bid on broader risk appetite and continued OPEC+ denials of any production increases. Meanwhile, there was also a larger-than-expected draw of crude inventories while deliberations around Russian energy price caps were held ahead of the planned December 5th implementation. However, there were also reports that China has paused some purchases of Russian oil ahead of the price cap implementation. Supply worries however remained with API reporting that US crude inventories fell by 4.8 million barrels for the week ended November 18, higher than the expected draw of 2.2 million barrels. API data also showed that gasoline inventories declined by about 400,000 barrels last week, and distillate stocks increased by 1.1M barrels. The official government inventory report due Wednesday is expected to show weekly U.S. crude supplies fell by about 1.1M barrels last week. WTI futures traded firm above the $80 mark while Brent futures were near the $88 mark. Natural gas prices also rose as much as 5.2% after Gazprom threatened to cut its gas flows sent via Ukraine — the last remaining route to western Europe — next week.   What to consider The increase in the ECB’s TLTRO funding costs for European banks came into effect Until today, European banks’ outstanding borrowings from the ECB’s Targeted Long-term Refinancing Operations III (TLTRO III). LTRO III has been funded at as low as 50bps below the average of the ECB’s Depository Facility Rate (DFR) over the entire life of those borrowings. The DFR, which is currently 1.5%, has been kept at minus 50bps from Sept 2019 to July 2022. It has been a large subsidy from the ECB in the form of below-market funding costs to European banks. Some banks are depositing these monies back into the ECB and arbitraging the interest rate differential. Last month, the ECB announced to change the calculation of the applicable DFR index with effect from Nov 23 to over the current period as opposed to the whole life of the borrowings.  The move will reduce European banks’ net interest income and withdraw liquidity from the banking system. Currently, the TLTRO III balance is EUR 2.1 trillion.     A testing time for the implementation of the fine-tuning measures for controlling Covid-19 outbreak in China The number of new Covid-19 cases hit 27,307 and reportedly as many as 48 cities across the countries are under some sort of lockdown or movement. Guangzhou, the provincial capital of Guangdong reported over 8,000 new cases and Chongqing seconded with over 6,000 new cases. So far the municipal government of Guangzhou avoids adopting stringent. However, Chongqing the manufacturing hub of Western China has rolled out more stringent lockdown. Chinese local governments are struggling to strike a right balance about adhering to zero-Covid policy and minimising disruption to daily lives and economic activities. The swing from abandoning PCR testing a week ago but only to reinstate mandatory testing days later was an example of such dilemma. In a press conference on Tuesday, health officials from the State Council reiterated the importance of implementing the 20 recently released fine-turning measures. Fed’s Mester and George keep the focus on inflation As investors continue to try and gauge the path of Federal Reserve rate hikes, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester reiterated on Tuesday that lowering inflation remains critical for the central bank, a day after supporting a smaller rate hike in December. Kansas City President Esther George said the central bank may need to boost interest rates to a higher level and hold them there for longer in order to temper consumer demand and cool inflation. Russian oil price cap in the works The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Western countries are set to agree on Russian oil price cap around $60 per barrel. However, it could be as high as $7 per barrel ahead of the December 5 start date. The sanctions that the G7, EU and Australia will set, will ban the provisions of maritime services for shipments of Russian oil unless the oil sells below the cap price. The aim is to reduce petroleum revenues for Russia's war machine while maintaining flows of its oil to global markets and preventing price spikes. EU’s new proposed cap on gas prices The EU proposed a cap of €275 per megawatt-hour on natural gas prices to defend consumers against a steep rise in energy costs. The level is well above the current price of about €120, but below last summer's highs when Dutch TTF gas prices went as high as €300+. The tool will only be used if futures on the Dutch Title Transfer facility exceed €275 for two weeks and the gap between TTF and liquefied natural gas prices is greater than €58 for 10 trading days. Even at the height of the crisis in the summer, the price didn’t stay above that level for two weeks, suggesting the tool would not have been activated had it been in place then. That led several market watchers to question how powerful can will actually be. If approved by EU countries, the cap would be available for one year from January 1. Ant Group could be fined more than USD1 billion, setting the stage for concluding regulatory overhaul over the company According to Reuters, the Chinese regulators may be close to a decision to impose a fine of over USD1 billion on the Ant Group. Since being called to stop its IPO in 2020, the group has been under regulatory overhaul. While the amount of the fine is substantial, initial reactions from the investment community to the news are positive as the fine could set the stage for the conclusion of the regulatory overhaul. JD.COM (09618:xhkg) cut senior management pays while increasing benefits for all employees JD.Com announced that the company is slashing the pay for about 2,000 managers by 10-20% and using some of the savings from the move to fund planned increases in staff benefits, including health and housing benefits, for all employees including hundreds of thousands of delivery staff. Founder Richard Liu will also donate 100 million yuan towards staff benefits. The OECD revised downward its 2023 growth forecasts Yesterday, the OECD published its latest Economic Outlook. There is not much surprise. Global growth is expected to slow down significantly in 2023 to 2.2% and to rebound modestly in 2024 at 2.7%. This will be a long and painful economic crisis. Asia will remain the main engine of growth in the short-term. But the zero Covid policy in China will likely limit the country’s contribution to global GDP growth. Before Covid, China represented about 30% of global growth impulse. It is now down to roughly 10%. The OECD warns that the fight against inflation will take time. But several countries are successful. For example, in Brazil, the central bank moved swiftly, and inflation has started to come down in recent months. In the United States, the latest data also seem to suggest some progress in the fight against inflation. Nevertheless, a pause in monetary policy is unlikely in most countries in the short-term. Get access to the full report here. FOMC minutes to be key for terminal rate pricing The FOMC minutes from the November 2 meeting are scheduled to be released on Wednesday, just ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. The key message delivered by Powell at this meeting was that the pace of rate hikes will slow down as needed, and that will likely remain the highlight of the minutes as well. However, Powell managed to deliver this message hawkishly at the press conference, but the risk from the minutes remains tilted to the dovish side. There is likely to be little consensus about whether the rates are in restrictive territory or there’s still room for that, and the divide within the committee remains key to watch as investors remain on the edge to expect a Fed pivot sometime in 2023. Flash PMIs on the radar for US, UK and EU The S&P flash PMIs for the US, EU and UK will be released in the week, and will likely test the soft-landing rhetoric that has been gaining traction. We will likely see further broad-based easing in the metrics from the October prints, as consumer spending remains constrained amid high inflation and a rise in interest rates. While expectations for December remain tilted towards a downshift in rate hikes for the Fed, ECB and the BOE, the upcoming data point will be more key in determining the terminal rate pricing. Markets are now back at pricing 5% levels for the Fed, but the ECB’s pricing for the terminal rate is still sub-3% while UK’s is 4.7% with fiscal austerity being delayed. Singapore’s Q3 GDP revised lower The final print of Singapore’s Q3 GDP was revised lower to 4.1% YoY, 1.1% QoQ from 4.4% YoY, 1.5% QoQ in the preliminary estimate. This came primarily on the back of weaker-than-expected manufacturing sector growth amid global demand weakness, which resulted in the first decline in non-oil exports for October. Meanwhile, covid curbs in China also continue to weigh on Singapore’s growth trajectory. The 2022 growth forecast was also trimmed to around 3.5% from a range of 3%-4% seen previously, a reflection of an increasingly challenging global macro environment, while 2023 growth forecast was set at 0.5-2.5%.   For our look ahead at markets this week - Read our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast. Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/market-insights-today-23-nov-2022-23112022
EUR/USD Faces Pressure Amid PMI Releases: Is More Downside Ahead?

The OECD Warns That The Fight Against Inflation Will Take Time | Credit Suisse May Lose $1.6bn In Q4

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 23.11.2022 09:12
Summary:  Market sentiment bounced yesterday on little news, with sentiment steady in Asia overnight. Long US treasury yields dipped, and short yields were steady ahead of today's FOMC minutes release from the November 2 meeting, taking the US yield curve inversion to a multi-decade low of -75 basis points. The focus in Europe today will be on preliminary November PMI for a sense of how badly the EU is tilting into recession.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) S&P 500 futures rallied 1.3% yesterday closing at the 4,010 level, the highest close since 9 September, suggesting bulls are in control as bears are already sitting on strong profits for the year and therefore has little incentive to take bigger positions before yearend. The next big level on the upside is the 200-day moving average at around the 4,060 level. Today’s key events are preliminary US PMI figures for November and later this evening the FOMC Minutes which could provide more clues into the thinking of policymakers. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HISX2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) According to Reuters, the Chinese regulators may be close to a decision to impose a fine of over $1 billion on Jack Ma’s Ant Group. Since its IPO was halted by the Chinese authorities in 2020, the group has been under regulatory overhaul. While the amount of the fine is substantial, initial reactions from the investment community to the news were positive as the fine could set the stage for the conclusion of the regulatory overhaul. Alibaba (09988:xhkg) jumped more than 4% on the news. China internet stocks gained, led by Kuaishou Technology (01024:xhkg) as the social media platform company surged 6.2% on better-than-expected Q3 results. After rising 25.5% yesterday, China Aluminum (02068:xhkg) continued its advance, rising 18% on Wednesday. Overall market sentiment remains cautious as the number of new cases reached 28,883 on Tuesday, just a touch below the April high of 29,317 cases. Hang Seng Index gained 1.2% and CSI 300 climbed 0.5%. In mainland A shares, infrastructure names surged while pharmaceutical and biotech stocks retreated. FX: Dollar drops as risk sentiment rebounds Softer long US treasury yields also pushed the US dollar lower as the US yield curve inverted to a new cycle low. Still, the big dollar has done very little after the huge, but brief sell-off move on the October CPI release nearly two full weeks ago, with today’s large data dump and FOMC minutes the last hope this week for providing a spark of volatility in either direction ahead of the long holiday weekend (tomorrow, US markets are closed, with most workers also out Friday). The FOMC minutes late today are not highly anticipated, but could surprise if there is more consensus on a hawkish stance than anticipated. EURUSD has carved out a 1.0222-1.0479 range now. Crude oil (CLF3 & LCOF3) Crude oil closed higher on Tuesday supported by a general recovery in risk appetite as the dollar softened and recent short sales in response to false production hike rumor were paired back. Crude oil prices have traded lower this month in response to a drop in demand from China as Covid cases surge to near a record with restrictions of movements currently impacting 48 cities. Ahead of today’s weekly EIA report, the API reported a 4.8 million barrel drop in US crude stocks. The data also showed that gasoline inventories declined by about 0.4m barrels last week, and distillate stocks increased by 1.1M barrels. EU diplomats will discuss and potentially approve a price cap on Russian seaborne oil sales today (see below), and if implemented Russia may retaliate by refusing to sell its crude to nations that adopt the cap. WTI resistance at $82.25 followed by $84.50 Gold (XAUUSD) Gold trades nervously around the $1735 support level for a second day as the market awaits the release of FOMC minutes. The yellow metal managed a small bounce on Tuesday as the dollar softened after Fed officials indicated they were open to implementing less aggressive hikes going forward. In the short-term the direction will be determined by fund activity and whether they need to make further reductions in recently established, and now under water, long positions. An extension of the recent rally likely requires further declines in yields and the US dollar driving fresh demand for ETFs or some other catalyst that sees a run to safety. US treasuries (TLT, IEF) US treasury yields were steady at the short end and dipped at the long end yesterday, driving a new extreme in the 2-10 yield curve inversion of –75 basis points. Traders are awaiting incoming US data today and the FOMC minutes for next steps, although more heavy hitting data awaits next week with Wednesday’s November PCE inflation data and next Friday’s November US jobs report. The key upside swing area for the 10-year treasury yield is near 4.00%, while the major downside focus beyond the 3.67% pivot low is the 3.50% cycle high from June. What is going on? New Zealand’s RBNZ hikes 75 basis points to 4.25% The market was divided on whether the bank would go with the larger rate hike after a string of 50 basis points moves prior to the meeting overnight. NZ two-year yields jumped back toward the cycle highs overnight as the market participants raised the anticipated peak in the policy rate by mid-year next year to almost 5.50%, up about 30 basis points after the decision. Fed’s Mester and George keep the focus on inflation As investors continue to try and gauge the path of Federal Reserve rate hikes, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester reiterated on Tuesday that lowering inflation remains critical for the central bank, a day after supporting a smaller rate hike in December. Kansas City President Esther George said the central bank may need to boost interest rates to a higher level and hold them there for longer in order to temper consumer demand and cool inflation. Russian oil price cap in the works The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Western countries are set to agree on Russian oil price cap around $60 per barrel. However, it could be as high as $70 per barrel on oil loaded after the December 5 start date. The sanctions that the G7, EU and Australia will set, will ban the provisions of maritime services for shipments of Russian oil unless the oil sells below the cap price. The aim is to reduce petroleum revenues for Russia's war machine while maintaining flows of its oil to global markets and preventing price spikes. Russian Urals crude oil already trades at around a 25-dollar discount to Brent, so the impact on Russia’s revenues at current international prices would be limited. Credit Suisse warns of big loss in Q4 The Swiss bank is stating in a press release this morning that it could lose $1.6bn in Q4 driven by losses in its investment banks. In addition, the bank says that it has seen net outflows of 6% relative to AUM in Q3. To improve profitability the bank is one-third of all investment banking employees in its Chinese subsidiary following a recent staff expansion in the country. HP cuts 6,000 employees as PC demand weakens The technology company reported Q4 results yesterday in line with estimates but its FY2023 (ending 31 October 2023) outlook was below estimates with adj. EPS guidance of $3.20-3.60 vs est. $3.61. Over the next two years the company expects to reduce staff level by 6,000 to improve profitability. The OECD revised downward its 2023 growth forecasts Yesterday, the OECD published its latest Economic Outlook. There is not much surprise. Global growth is expected to slow down significantly in 2023 to 2.2 % and to rebound modestly in 2024 at 2.7 %. This will be a long and painful economic crisis. Asia will remain the main engine of growth in the short-term. But the zero Covid policy in China will likely limit the country’s contribution to global GDP growth. Before Covid, China represented about 30 % of global growth impulse. It is now down to roughly 10 %. The OECD warns that the fight against inflation will take time. But several countries are successful. For example, in Brazil, the central bank moved swiftly, and inflation has started to come down in recent months. In the United States, the latest data also seem to suggest some progress in the fight against inflation. Nevertheless, a pause in monetary policy is unlikely in most countries in the short-term. Read the full report here. The increase in the ECB’s TLTRO funding costs for European banks came into effect Until today, European banks’ outstanding borrowings from the ECB’s Targeted Long-term Refinancing Operations III (TLTRO III). LTRO III has been funded at as low as 50bps below the average of the ECB’s Depository Facility Rate (DFR) over the entire life of those borrowings. The DFR, which is currently 1.5%, has been kept at minus 50bps from Sept 2019 to July 2022. It has been a large subsidy from the ECB in the form of below-market funding costs to European banks. Some banks are depositing these monies back into the ECB and arbitraging the interest rate differential. Last month, the ECB announced to change the calculation of the applicable DFR index with effect from Nov 23 to over the current period as opposed to the whole life of the borrowings. The move will reduce European banks’ net interest income and withdraw liquidity from the banking system. Currently, the TLTRO III balance is EUR 2.1 trillion.     JD.COM cut senior management pays while increasing benefits for all employees JD.Com announced that the company is slashing the pay for about 2,000 managers by 10-20% and using some of the savings from the move to fund planned increases in staff benefits, including health and housing benefits, for all employees including hundreds of thousands of delivery staff. Founder Richard Liu will also donate 100 million yuan of his own money towards staff benefits. Under the quest for “common prosperity” of the top government leadership, Chinese tycoons are mindful of doing their share in redistributing income. What are we watching next? Flash PMIs on the radar for US, UK and EU The S&P flash PMIs for the US, EU and UK will be released in the week, and will likely test the soft-landing rhetoric that has been gaining traction. We will likely see further broad-based easing in the metrics from the October prints, as consumer spending remains constrained amid high inflation and a rise in interest rates. While expectations for December remain tilted towards a downshift in rate hikes for the Fed, ECB and the BOE, the upcoming data point will be more key in determining the terminal rate pricing. Markets are now back at pricing 5% levels for the Fed, but the ECB’s pricing for the terminal rate is still sub-3% while UK’s is 4.7% with fiscal austerity being delayed. Copper demand growth shifting from China to Europe and the US At the FT Commodities Asia Summit in Singapore, Jeremy Weir, the CEO of Trafigura said demand for copper is shifting away from cooling building activities in China to energy transition demand, especially in Europe and the US. Weir said demand for copper has remained strong despite recent global headwinds. “We’re seeing for example very strong copper demand in Europe through electrification and even through the pandemic,” he said. “Even the current crisis and conflict in Ukraine is not reducing the demand for copper.” Following a recent rally, that got rejected ahead of key resistance at $4 per pound, HG copper has dropped back and currently trades near the middle of its established range around $3.55 FOMC minutes to be key for terminal rate pricing The FOMC minutes from the November 2 meeting are scheduled to be released on Wednesday, just ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. The key message delivered by Powell at this meeting was that the pace of rate hikes will slow down as needed, and that will likely remain the highlight of the minutes as well. However, Powell managed to deliver this hawkish message at the press conference, but the risk from the minutes remains tilted to the dovish side. There is likely to be little consensus about whether the rates are in restrictive territory or there’s still room for that, and the divide within the committee remains key to watch as investors remain on the edge to expect a Fed pivot sometime in 2023. Earnings to watch Today’s US earnings focus is Deere, the US manufacturer of agricultural and forestry equipment, with analysts expecting FY22 Q4 (ending 31 October) revenue growth of 18% y/y and EPS of $7.09 up 72% as momentum and pricing power remain strong due to high commodity prices on agricultural products. Today: Xiaomi, Prosus, Deere Friday: Meituan, Pinduoduo Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0815-0900 – Eurozone Nov. Preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI 0930 – UK Nov. Preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI 1330 – US Oct. Preliminary Durable Goods Orders 1330 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 1445 – US Nov. Preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI 1500 – US Nov. Final University of Michigan Sentiment 1500 – US Oct. New Home Sales 1530 – EIA's Weekly Crude and Fuel Stocks Report 1700 – US Weekly Natural Gas Storage change 1905 – US FOMC Meeting Minutes 1905 – New Zealand RBNZ Governor at Parliament committee 2130 – Canada Bank of Canada Governor Macklem to testify to parliament committee Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-nov-23-2022-23112022
US CPI Surprises on the Upside, but Fed Expectations Unchanged Amid Rising Recession Risks

HP Expects To Reduce Staff In Coming Years | Xiaomi Reported Revenue In The Q3

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 24.11.2022 09:00
Summary:  U.S. equities and bonds rallied on the November FOMC minutes which has a dovish cast stating “a substantial majority of participants judged that a slowing in the pace of increase would soon be appropriate”. The 10-year treasury yield fell to 3.69%. Oil prices slid sharply on Wednesday with WTI futures dipping to sub-$77 lows as the EU proposed a higher-than-expected price cap on Russian crude - between $65-70/barrel. EURUSD rallied above 1.04 and USDJPY fell below 140 amid broad-based dollar weakness. What’s happening in markets? The Nasdaq 100 (NAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) finished higher on dovish signals from the Nov FOMC minutes U.S. equities found support and bounced after the release of the Nov 1-2 FOMC minutes in an otherwise thin trading session ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. As bond yields fell, Nasdaq 100 rallied 1%, and the S&P 500 gained 0.6%. All sectors in the S&P 500 advanced except energy, which was dragged by a 4.3% decline in the price of the WTI crude. Consumer discretionary was the top gaining sector, led by Tesla (TSLA:xnas) that surged 7.8% after a leading US investment bank called the shares of Tesla “a bargain”. Deere (DE:xnys), the largest supplier of farm tractors and crop harvesters in the world, gained 5.1% after reporting an earnings beat and upbeat guidance citing strong demand. Manchester United (MANU:xnys) surged 26.1% after the club’s owner announced that they were exploring a sale. Coupa Software (COUP:xnas) jumped nearly 29% on a report that Vista Equity Partners is exploring an acquisition. Nordstrom (JWN:xnys) dropped by 4.2% after reporting a decline in sales and excessive inventory. US treasuries (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) yields fell after the Fed minutes The minutes for the Nov 1-2 FOMC meeting have a dovish cast, saying “a substantial majority of participants judged that a slowing in the pace of increase would soon be appropriate” and some FOMC members had a concern about rate hikes might ultimately “exceed what was required to bring inflation back”. Yields declined across the curve with buying particularly strong on the long end. The 2-year yield dropped by 4bps to 4.48% and the 10-year yield finished the session 6bps richer at 3.69%. The 2-10-year part of the curve became yet more inverted at minus 79. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HISX2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) China internet stocks gained, led by Kuaishou Technology (01024:xhkg) up 5.7%, Baidu (09888:xhkg) up 3.4%, JD.COM (09618:xhkg) up 3.3%, and Alibaba (09988:xhkg). Kuaishou and Baidu reported better-than-expected Q3 results. Alibaba shares were boosted by the prospect of coming out of the 2-year-long regulatory overhaul with a fine of over USD 1 billion. Meituan (03690:xhgx) underperformed with a loss of 1.1% following a statement from Prosus, shareholder of Tencent, saying that the Company was planning to unload the Meituan’s shares it received from Tencent. China Aluminum (02068:xhkg) continued its advance, rising 25.3% on Wednesday. Hang Seng Index gained 0.6% and CSI 300 climbed 0.1%. In mainland A shares, infrastructure names surged while pharmaceutical and biotech stocks retreated. Overall market sentiment remains cautious as the number of new cases reached 28,883 on Tuesday, just a touch below the April high of 29,317 cases. Large cities, including Beijing, Chongqing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Zhengzhou, as well as Shanghai have further tightened pandemic control measures. FX: EURUSD above 1.04 and USDJPY falls below 140 amid broad-based dollar weakness The dovish read of the FOMC minutes from the November 2 meeting is hardly a surprise, given the key message has been around a downshift in the pace of rate hikes as expected. But together with weaker than expected flash PMIs for November (read below) suggesting demand slowdown concerns are starting to pick up pace, and a higher-than-expected jobless claims prints sending some early warning signals on the labor market, the focus has completely shifted away from inflation concerns. Market pricing of the Fed December meeting tilted further towards 50bps, and that resulted in a broad-based dollar sell-off. EURUSD surged above 1.04 while USDJPY slid below 139.50. Crude oil (CLZ2 & LCOF3) Oil prices slid sharply on Wednesday with WTI futures dipping to sub-$77 lows and Brent futures touching $84/barrel as the EU proposed a higher-than-expected price cap on Russian crude - between $65-70/barrel after a $60 level was touted yesterday. This higher price cap means that Russian oil can continue to flow into the international markets as it is above Russia’s production costs. Meanwhile, EIA data showed US crude inventories fell a more-than-expected 3.69 million barrels last week, but US gasoline stockpiles rose by 3 million barrels, the largest buildup since July, suggesting a weaker demand heading into Thanksgiving.   What to consider FOMC Minutes signal a smaller pace of rate hikes The FOMC minutes from the November 2 meeting were released on Wednesday, and the general tone of the members confirmed that the committee was leaning towards moving away from jumbo (75bps) rate hikes to a smaller pace. At the same time, "various" officials noted that the peak rate will be "somewhat higher" than previously expected. The minutes saw participants agree there were very few signs of inflation pressures abating (minutes were pre-October CPI) and they generally noted inflation outlook risks remain tilted to the upside. There were also some concerns about the strength of the labour market, where a few participants said ongoing tightness in the labour market could lead to an emergence of a wage-price spiral, even though one had not yet developed. The message remained less hawkish than what the Fed potentially needs to deliver at this point given the considerable easing in financial conditions. US PMIs disappointed, jobless claims rose US S&P flash PMIs for November disappointed, as manufacturing printed 47.6 (exp. 50.0, prev. 50.4) and services fell to 46.1 (exp. 47.9, exp. 47.8), while the composite dropped to 46.3 (prev. 48.2). New orders fell to 46.4, the lowest since May 2020, while employment saw a slight uptick to 50.8 from 50.4. The only good news is that both input and output prices dipped further, offering further positive signals on inflation. The PMIs indicated how concerns are shifting from the supply side to the demand side, with better news on supply chains but demand concerns from weakening new orders. Initial Jobless claims rose more than expected to 240k from 223k and above expectations of 225k, the highest print since August, suggesting that we continue to watch for further signals on whether the tight labor market may be starting to weaken. Better eurozone flash Composite PMI for November This was unexpected. The consensus forecasted that the EZ flash Composite PMI would fall to 47.0 in November from 47.3 in October. It actually improved a bit at 47.8. The increase mostly results from a better-than-expected Manufacturing PMI (out at 47.3 versus prior 46.4 and forecast at 46.0) while the services sector remains stable. There is another positive news. Price pressures are easing quite fast. The PMI price gauge fell to its lowest levels in two years due to a collapse in input prices. On a flip note, the flash Composite PMI Output Index for the United Kingdom (UK) ticked up to 48.3 in November. Surprisingly, the UK seems to hold up better than the eurozone and especially Germany. The jump in the PMI is still consistent with a recession in the eurozone and in the UK but it may be shallow and its steepness will mostly depend from country to country on the impact of the energy shock and fiscal measures taken to mitigate it. China’s State Council is calling on the PBOC to cut the RRR After a meeting on Wednesday, China’s State Council issued a memo calling on the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to use monetary tools including a cut in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) at an appropriate time to support the real economy. According to historical observations, the PBOC will do what the State Council says and cut the RRR in the coming days or weeks. Violent protests at Foxconn’s iPhone factory in Zhengzhou Video clips showed violent protests broke out at Foxconn’s iPhone production plant in Zhengzhou. What exactly caused the protests were unclear but speculation was about retention allowance to workers who are willing to stay at the factory until February 15, 2023, and work conditions. New Zealand’s RBNZ hikes 75 basis points to 4.25% The market was divided on whether the bank would go with the larger rate hike after a string of 50 basis points moves prior to the meeting overnight. NZ two-year yields jumped back toward the cycle highs overnight as the market participants raised the anticipated peak in the policy rate by mid-year next year to almost 5.50%, up about 30 basis points after the decision. Xiaomi reported inline revenue and better-than-feared adjusted net profit Xiaomi reported Q3 revenue of RMB70.47 billion, shrinking 10% Y/Y and flat Q/Q. Adjusted net profit came in at RMB2.1 billion, 6% above the Bloomberg consensus, and -59% Y/Y and +1% Q/Q. Excluding new initiative investment, core net profit increased 9% Q/Q to RMB2.9 billion. Blended ASP declined 4% Y/Y.  Gross margin was 16.6% in Q3, falling from 16.8% in Q2 and 18.3% a year ago. Q3 non-IFRS operating margin was 3.0%, down from Q2’s 3.1% and Q3 last year’s 6.7%. Credit Suisse warns of big loss in Q4 The Swiss bank is stating in a press release this morning that it could lose $1.6bn in Q4 driven by losses in its investment banks. In addition, the bank says that it has seen net outflows of 6% relative to AUM in Q3. To improve profitability the bank is one-third of all investment banking employees in its Chinese subsidiary following a recent staff expansion in the country. HP cuts 6,000 employees as PC demand weakens The technology company reported Q4 results yesterday in line with estimates but its FY2023 (ending 31 October 2023) outlook was below estimates with adj. EPS guidance of $3.20-3.60 vs est. $3.61. Over the next two years the company expects to reduce staff level by 6,000 to improve profitability. The Glazer family is exploring the sale of Manchester United The owner of Manchester United said that they are exploring the sale of the English Premier League football club and will consider “all strategic alternatives”. In May this year, Chelsea, another English Premier League club, was sold for around USD5.3 billion. Deere sees strong demand for farm, forestry, and construction machinery Deere said they are expecting high demand for equipment from farmers on elevated prices for agricultural commodities. In addition, the company expects increases in demand for its construction machinery from the oil and gas industry and construction equipment rental businesses. Strong progress in precision agriculture adoption is expected to help boost margins and aftermarket technology product sales. For our look ahead at markets this week - Read our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast. Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/market-insights-today-24-nov-2022-24112022
Britain's Rishi Sunak And EU's Ursula Von Der Leyen Will Meet Today To Finalize The Northern Ireland Drama

The Jump In The PMI Is Still Consistent With A Recession In The Eurozone And In The UK

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 24.11.2022 09:05
Summary:  US stocks and bonds ended higher on Wednesday while the dollar closed at it weakest level since August after the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes showed most officials backing slowing the pace of interest-rate hike soon, a prospect that was given some support following the release of weaker than expected economic data. Crude oil lost ground on growth concerns while the weaker dollar supported a rebound in gold, silver and copper. Today the US markets are closed for Thanksgiving holiday.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) Bad news is good news in the US with lower than estimated PMI figures for November suggesting the US economy continues to slow down bolstering bets that US interest rates have peaked, and the Fed pivot is alive. The FOMC Minutes also suggested that the pace of interest rate hikes will be lowered going forward.  P 500 futures rallied 0.5% to close at 4,030 getting closer to the falling 200-day moving average at 4,058. In addition to yesterday’s US news, China’s State Council (see below) issued a memo advising the PBOC to use monetary instruments to safeguard and kickstart the Chinese economy. In a time with falling economic growth in the US and Europe, an accelerating Chinese economy would balance the global economy and soften the recessionary dynamics. It is Thanksgiving in the US today so cash equity markets will close at 1300 ET today. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HISX2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) After a meeting on Wednesday, China’s State Council issued a memo calling on the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to use monetary tools including a cut in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) at an appropriate time to support the real economy. According to historical observations, the PBOC will do what the State Council says and cut the RRR in the coming days or weeks. The news helped lift market sentiment which was however tempered by the rise of daily Covid cases to an all-time high of 31,444 in mainland China. Hang Seng Index edged up 0.3% while CSI 300 declined 0.5%. Shares of leading Chinese developers surged by 5% to 12% after several large Chinese banks agreed to provide more than RMB 200bn in total in credit facilities to a number of private enterprise developers. EURUSD above 1.04 and USDJPY falls below 140 amid broad-based dollar weakness The dovish read of the FOMC minutes from the November 2 meeting is hardly a surprise, given the key message has been around a downshift in the pace of rate hikes as expected. But together with weaker than expected flash PMIs for November (read below) suggesting demand slowdown concerns are starting to pick up pace, and a higher-than-expected jobless claims print sending some early warning signals on the labor market, the focus has somewhat shifted away from inflation concerns which remain persistent. Market pricing of the Fed December meeting tilted further towards 50bps, and that resulted in a broad-based dollar sell-off which extended in the Asian session. EURUSD is now attempting a break above 1.0450 while USDJPY slid below 139.00. Japan’s Tokyo CPI for October is due tomorrow and may inch higher again, further fuelling pressure for BOJ to tweak its zero-rate policy and supporting a recovery in the yen even as global yields start to get capped. Crude oil (CLF3 & LCOF3) Crude oil fell again on Wednesday thereby extending what has already been a very volatile week. The FOMC minutes driving a weaker dollar did not add much support with the market instead focusing on a challenged demand outlook in China as Covid cases continue to spread, and a 50% risk of a recession in the US next year. In addition, a price cap on Russian oil in the $65-$70 area currently being discussed by EU officials is far higher than expected and would probably not have a major impact on supply given that Russia is already selling its Urals crude at a 25-dollar discount to Brent. The negative sentiment was also reflected by the markets negative response to an otherwise price-supportive EIA stock report. Gold (XAUUSD) and silver (XAGUSD) Gold and silver both rose in response to weaker US economic data (see below) and after the FOMC minutes talked about moderating the pace of interest rate hike soon. The Bloomberg dollar index dropped to the lowest level since August while US government bonds rallied to send yields lower. Gold was already encouraged by the speed with which it recovered after briefly breaking below support in the $1735 area reached $1756 overnight with silver trading at $21.60 after showing some renewed relative strength against gold this week. With no signs yet of a pick up in demand for ETFs from longer-term focused investors, a further extension will likely require further declines in yields and the US dollar or some other catalyst that sees a run to safety. Resistance at $1757 and $1765. EU gas (TTFMZ2) EU gas jumped 8.3% on Wednesday to close near a one-month high at €130 with weather forecasts pointing to a cold beginning to December and Gazprom threatening to reduced supplies through Ukraine, one of just two remaining pipelines in operation. The Sudzha line is currently sending 42 million cubic meters per day to Europe and while the dispute only relates to part of the 5 mcm/day that goes to Moldova, the market clearly worry that this could lead to a complete closure of the line. However, with Russia’s pipeline flow to Europe already down 79% YoY, the ability to shock the system has been much reduced, hence the limited reaction in the peak winter contract of February which only trades €7/MWh above December US treasuries (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) yields fell after the Fed minutes The minutes for the Nov 1-2 FOMC meeting have a dovish cast, saying “a substantial majority of participants judged that a slowing in the pace of increase would soon be appropriate” and some FOMC members had a concern about rate hikes might ultimately “exceed what was required to bring inflation back”. Yields declined across the curve with buying particularly strong on the long end. The 2-year yield dropped by 4bps to 4.48% and the 10-year yield finished the session 6bps richer at 3.69%. The 2-10-year part of the curve became yet more inverted at minus 79, thereby strengthening the prospects for a recession sometime next year. What is going on? FOMC Minutes signal a smaller pace of rate hikes The FOMC minutes from the November 2 meeting were released on Wednesday, and the general tone of the members confirmed that the committee was leaning towards moving away from jumbo (75bps) rate hikes to a smaller pace. At the same time, "various" officials noted that the peak rate will be "somewhat higher" than previously expected. The minutes saw participants agree there were very few signs of inflation pressures abating (minutes were pre-October CPI) and they generally noted inflation outlook risks remain tilted to the upside. There were also some concerns about the strength of the labour market, where a few participants said ongoing tightness in the labour market could lead to an emergence of a wage-price spiral, even though one had not yet developed. The message remained less hawkish than what the Fed potentially needs to deliver at this point given the considerable easing in financial conditions. US PMIs disappointed, jobless claims rose US S&P flash PMIs for November disappointed, as manufacturing printed 47.6 (exp. 50.0, prev. 50.4) and services fell to 46.1 (exp. 47.9, exp. 47.8), while the composite dropped to 46.3 (prev. 48.2). New orders fell to 46.4, the lowest since May 2020, while employment saw a slight uptick to 50.8 from 50.4. The only good news is that both input and output prices dipped further, offering further positive signals on inflation. The PMIs indicated how concerns are shifting from the supply side to the demand side, with better news on supply chains but demand concerns from weakening new orders. Initial Jobless claims rose more than expected to 240k from 223k and above expectations of 225k, the highest print since August, suggesting that we continue to watch for further signals on whether the tight labor market may be starting to weaken. Deere shares up 5% on strong results The US agricultural equipment maker delivered better than expected revenue and net income in its Q4 fiscal quarter (ending 31 October) and issued a FY23 net income guidance of $8-8.5bn vs est. $7.8bn. Order books are full into fiscal Q3 next year (ending 31 July) and the company sees an extended replacement cycle indicating that the best years are still ahead of the company. Better eurozone flash Composite PMI for November This was unexpected. The consensus forecasted that the EZ flash Composite PMI would fall to 47.0 in November from 47.3 in October, it actually improved a bit to 47.8. The increase mostly results from a better-than-expected Manufacturing PMI (out at 47.3 versus prior 46.4 and forecast at 46.0) while the services sector remains stable. There is another positive news. Price pressures are easing quite fast. The PMI price gauge fell to its lowest levels in two years due to a collapse in input prices. On a flip note, the flash Composite PMI Output Index for the United Kingdom (UK) ticked up to 48.3 in November. Surprisingly, the UK seems to hold up better than the eurozone and especially Germany. The jump in the PMI is still consistent with a recession in the eurozone and in the UK but it may be shallow, and its steepness will mostly depend from country to country on the impact of the energy shock and fiscal measures taken to mitigate it. What are we watching next? Earnings to watch Today’s earnings focus is Meituan and Pinduoduo. Chinese earnings in Q3 have been mixed and the technology sector continues to experience headwinds from both the economy and regulation. Analysts expect Pinduoduo, which has so far navigated the environment flawlessly, to deliver revenue growth of 44% y/y and EPS of CNY 4.75 up 288% y/y. Friday: Meituan, Pinduoduo Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) US cash markets closed for Thanksgiving. Early closes in some futures markets. 0900 – German IFO for November Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-nov-24-2022-24112022
At The Close On The New York Stock Exchange Indices Closed Mixed

American Stocks Rallied, USD Drop | Tesla Rallies On Citi

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 24.11.2022 09:40
US stocks spent most of yesterday’s session hesitating between slight gains and slight losses, then the release of the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes helped the bulls take the upper hand, as the minutes confirmed that a ‘substantial majority’ of Fed members thought it was a good idea to slow down the pace of the rate hikes. Stocks The S&P500 gained around 0.60% while Nasdaq jumped around 1%. The US 10-year yield eased, as the US dollar sold off quite aggressively across the board. Economy We saw a decent price action yesterday was oil, and that was well before the Fed minutes. The barrel of American crude dropped up to 5% yesterday on news that the Europeans would set the price cap for Russian oil to around $65 to $70 per barrel, levels at which Russian oil is already exchanged. Tesla and Morgan Stanley On individual stocks, Tesla was one of the biggest gainers of yesterday’s session as Citi and Morgan Stanley revised their views higher, but that rally was maybe… exaggerated. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:21 Fed minutes send stocks higher, USD lower 4:11 Crude oil tanks on EU’s new Russian oil price cap 5:55 Foxconn living a nightmare in China, but Apple holds on 6:32 Tesla rallies on Citi, Morgan Stanley upgrades Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Fed #FOMC #minutes #USD #crudeoil #EU #Russia #price #cap #EUR #GBP #ECB #minutes #Thanksgiving #holiday #Tesla #rally #Apple #Foxconn #China #Covid #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH
Tokyo Raises Concerns Over Yen's Depreciation, Considers Intervention

The US Dollar Seems To Have Lost To All Major World Currencies

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 24.11.2022 10:28
Americans celebrate Thanksgiving today, which may translate into less activity for investors overseas. However, before that happens, the market seems to be still alive with yesterday's "minutes" from the latest FOMC meeting. The minutes are a record of events and statements at the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, which makes decisions on interest rates in the United States. They show that the vast majority of Fed officials felt that a slowdown in the rate of increase in the federal funds rate would probably be appropriate soon, as this would allow the Committee to better assess progress toward achieving its goals of maximum employment and price stability. Policymakers also noted that with inflation showing no signs of abating and the economy's supply-demand imbalance persisting, the ultimate level of the federal funds rate that would be needed to achieve the Committee's goals is somewhat higher than they had previously expected. The Federal Reserve raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 75 basis points to 3.75%-4% at its November 2022 meeting, marking the sixth consecutive rate hike and the fourth consecutive 75bp increase. As a result, the cost of dollar funding has risen to its highest level since 2008, Tradingecnomics calculated. Slower hikes - how are the dollar exchange rate and indexes reacting? The dollar index fell below 106 points on Thursday morning, slipping for the third day in a row toward the lowest levels since mid-August. For the week as a whole, the dollar seems to have lost to all major world currencies. Meanwhile, the British pound was able to record the biggest strengthening, gaining more than 1.7 percent, followed by the New Zealand dollar, which saw a historic interest rate hike yesterday. In third place on a weekly basis is the Swiss franc, with a strengthening of about 1.5 percent. Thus, it seems that the dollar's rally after the US interest rate hike may have slowed or come to an end, and now the market could at least move to a larger correction in price and time after the USD's one-year appreciation. Source: Conotoxia MT5, USDIndex, Daily The chances of a slower pace of interest rate hikes may have appealed to investors on Wall Street, where the green has taken hold. Particular attention may be paid to the Dow Jones index, which is now just a few percent short of reaching new highs. Yesterday, the Dow closed more than 100 points higher, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 0.6% and 1%, respectively. For the month as a whole, Caterpillar posted the biggest gains in the 30-company index, rising more than 23 percent, while the shares of aircraft manufacturer Boeing achieved a similar result. Meanwhile, only three companies in the entire index recorded a decline. They were UnitedHealth Group, The Walt Disney Co and Salesforce.com Inc. In their case, the declines were in the range of -2.2 to -5.2%, according to data from the BBN service. Source: Conotoxia MT5, Caterpillar, Weekly Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75.21% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.    
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Had Its Best Month | EU Inflation Slowed

The Pressure On Bank Of Japan To Tighten Policy | China’s Zero Covid Still In Focus

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 25.11.2022 08:49
Summary:  A quiet overnight session with the Thanksgiving holiday, and most assets remained in consolidation after the FOMC minutes-driven move the day before. China’s zero Covid still in focus as reports suggest that Beijing may go in a lockdown. The US dollar held on to its recent losses, and bets for the December Fed rate hike in favour of a 50bps move. Sweden’s Riksbank hiked 75bps and the pressure on Bank of Japan to tighten policy also remains with Tokyo CPI touching a new 40-year high. Crude oil still below key levels, while Gold and Silver are testing key resistances. What’s happening in markets? The Nasdaq 100 (NAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) Closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. US treasuries (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) Closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HISX2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hang Seng Index gained 0.8% on Thursday following China’s State Council’s call on the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR). In addition, leading Chinese banks offered more than RMB 270 billion in credit facilities to support private enterprise developers. Chinese developers were top performers in the benchmark index, with Country Garden (02007:xhkg) jumping 20%, Longfor (00960:xhkg) up 12%, and Country Garden Services (06098) up 11%. Hang Seng TECH Index climbed 0.8%. Xiaomi was the laggard among tech peers, falling 3.6% after reporting Q3 results. Market sentiment was tempered by the rise of daily Covid cases to an all-time high of 31,444 in mainland China. CSI 300 edged down by 0.4%, driven by large state-owned enterprise names that consolidated recent strong gains. FX: Dollar held on to its losses in a thin trading day The dollar index traded steady below 106 on Thursday amid thin trading markets with US closed for Thanksgiving. The reaction to a dovish read of the FOMC minutes has been a significant slide in USD, which along with higher equities and lower bond yields, suggest financial conditions continue to ease since that softer CPI release. This is sending warning signals on inflation and Fed members may need to be more hawkish to prevent that. Lower US yields, and still-steady expectations of a BOJ pivot, have meant a stronger Japanese yen, with USDJPY now below 139. GBPUSD touched 1.2150, the highest levels since early August. Crude oil (CLZ2 & LCOF3)   Demand concerns, especially from China’s zero covid, continued to underpin the oil markets. A record high in the number of cases and reports that Beijing may go back in a lockdown show the difficulty of opening up the economy. US gasoline demand is also weakening as the travel season ends, and there are signals of overall demand weakness globally after massive tightening this year. This saw oil prices remain below key levels, with WTI still around $78/barrel and Brent around $85. Meanwhile, the proposed price caps on Russian oil continues to cause concern. EU diplomats are locked in negotiations over how strict the mechanism should be. Poland rejected USD65/bbl, while shipping giant Greece said it doesn’t want it below USD70/bbl. Gold (XAUUSD) and Silver (XAGUSD) testing key resistances A dovish FOMC read, along with softer US economic data from the flash PMIs, have returned the focus again on precious metals. Gold tested $1735 support again this week but is now back at over $1750-levels and testing the resistance at $1757. Break above will bring $1765 in focus, but lack of ETF buying still makes it hard to confirm the reversal of the short-term downtrend. Silver is also at key resistance level of $21.50.   What to consider? Sweden’s Riksbank hiked 75bps, more in the pipeline The Riksbank’s 75bps rate hike was larger than the 50bps signalled at the September meeting, and brings its policy rate to 2.5%, the highest since the GFC. Worsening inflation outlook, with October’s inflation at 9.3% and suggesting wage pressures as well, more rate hikes potentially remain in the pipeline. Peak rate is closer to 3% for now, but the bank showed an alternate scenario where persistent inflation above 3.5% could prompt the peak rate move higher from 2.84% to 4.65%. Japan’s Tokyo CPI above expectations again, more pressures to come Japan’s Tokyo inflation for November rose to its highest level in 40 years, suggesting that price pressures have not peaked yet. Tokyo CPI came in at 3.8% YoY from 3.5% previously, while the ex-food was at 3.6% YoY (prev 3.4%) and ex-food and energy was at 2.5% YoY (prev 2.2%). Meanwhile, Asia LNG prices are rising again, as colder temperatures in Europe heat up the competition to secure LNG cargoes again. This suggests price pressures will likely continue, and Bank of Japan could still likely consider tweaking its yield curve control policy. Anwar Ibrahim sworn in as Malaysia’s PM, political chaos to stay Malaysia’s new PM Anwar Ibrahim plans to test lawmakers' support for his leadership with a confidence vote on Dec 19, as he seeks to prove he commands a majority. His party, Pakatan Harapan, got the most but only 82 seats in the 220-seat parliament and lacks a majority. The political divide in the country is getting worse, suggesting policy paralysis that can likely drive foreign investors away. Local governments across China resorted to lockdowns as Covid cases surged to record highs As new Covid cases hit new highs day after day, local governments are torn between the urge to avoid full lockdowns and the instruction to adhere to the zero-Covid policy. Over 40 cities across China, including Guangzhou, Zhengzhou, Chongqing, Shanghai, and Beijing have to resort to some sort of movement restrictions or lockdown.   For our look ahead at markets this week - Read our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast. Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/apac-market-insights-25-nov-2022-25112022
RBA Governor Announces Major Changes at RBA Board as US Inflation Expected to Decline

In Zhengzhou Manufacturing Plant Could Cut Production Of iPhones | The Bloomberg Commodity Index Is Showing A Small Gain

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 25.11.2022 09:05
Summary:  Yesterday was rather quiet as the US was out for the Thanksgiving holiday, with only a half-session of thin trading on tap for today. Overnight, Asian sentiment was somewhat downbeat as Covid concerns continue to weigh in China. In Japan, Tokyo November inflation was reported at new multi-decade highs. In FX, the US dollar is eyeing the key 200-day moving average for the first time since slicing above that indicator all the way back in June of 2021.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) The US 10-year yield has opened today’s trading session at a new low for the month trading around the 3.65% level. This is naturally adding tailwind for US equities with S&P 500 futures likely attempting today to break above the 200-day moving average around the 4,058 level. The index futures flirted with the moving average back in August when equities rallied on Fed pivot talk and easing inflation. There are no major earnings or macro releases scheduled for today so we expect a quiet session going into the weekend. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HISX2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Daily new Covid cases surged to yet another record high at 32,695, including 1,444 cases in Beijing. Beijing imposed district-level lockdowns and suspended food delivery. Alibaba (09988:xhkg), Tencent (00700:xhkg), and Meituan (03690:xhkg) lost 2% - 3%. China developers, Chinese banks, Chinese telco giants, and China Aluminum (02068:xhkg) gained. Hang Seng Index declined by 0.8% while CSI 300 climbed 0.5%. USD hits new lows even with US markets closed for holiday yesterday The US dollar’s losses extended on Thursday after the FOMC minutes reported late Wednesday encouraged the view that the Fed is on course to decelerate its tightening regime starting with the December meeting (and further forward, the late 2024 and beyond projections of Fed policy suggest the market believes a recession will trigger a sharp Fed easing of policy beyond the end of next year. The US dollar index is flirting with the 200-day moving average for the first time since crossing above the indicator since June of 2021, while EURUSD has made a feint at the cycle highs above 1.0450, easing back a bit overnight. Hotter than expected November Tokyo CPI data reported overnight (more below) saw USDJPY heavy overnight, trading near 138.00 before bouncing slightly. Next week looks important for incoming US data, with the October PCE inflation data up on Thursday and the November jobs report next Friday. Crude oil (CLF3 & LCOF3) Crude oil trades lower for a third consecutive week as demand fears, especially from an increasingly locked down China, weigh on sentiment. A G7-sponsored price-cap plan on Russian oil looks dead in the water with EU countries struggling to agree on a level, the result being either no cap or a level so high that it will not have any meaningful impact on supply. The 12-month futures spread in WTI and Brent have both weakened to the lowest backwardation since last December, reflecting a market concerned about recession and a seasonal slowdown in demand hurting the front month contracts. Gold (XAUUSD) Gold trades small up on the week in response to weaker US economic data and after the FOMC minutes talked about moderating the pace of interest rate hike soon. Having found support in the $1735 area a further extension will likely require further declines in the yields and the dollar or some other catalyst that sees a run to safety. A break above $1765 may signal a return to key resistance at $1788, but lack of ETF buying still makes it hard to confirm a major change in direction. US treasuries (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) yields fell after the Fed minutes The FOMC minutes late Wednesday confirmed the deceleration in the Fed’s tightening path and the market has become increasingly confident that, while the Fed may hold rates quite high next year, the path of easing policy will eventually prove quite steep, presumably on the combination of lower inflation and a recession. US 10-year yields eased to new lows below the recent low of 3.67% overnight ahead of an important period of incoming data before the December 14 FOMC meeting, with 3.50% the next technical level of note (psychological as well as a major pivot high from June). What is going on? Not many insights in the ECB minutes Yesterday, the minutes of the ECB’s October meeting were released. On the key point of the monetary policy pivot, there was nothing new. According to the minutes, there had been no discussion on a potential slowdown in the pace of rate hike. This is certainly a bit too early. But many participants pointed out risks related to the recession, especially in the housing market and in the labour market. On fiscal policy, the ECB has basically reiterated its long-term view: there is a « risk that fiscal compensation packages would turn out to be bigger than warranted ». Finally, a large majority of participants considered that the best option, in the short-term, is to implement a new 75 basis point interest rate increase at the next meeting scheduled for 15 December. Only a majority expressed a different position (in favor of a 50-basis point hike). This was not a market mover, obviously. Apple’s iPhone output at jeopardy in China The worker unrest at Foxconn’s (Apple’s manufacturing supplier in China) Zhengzhou manufacturing plant could cut production of iPhones of up to 30% according to Reuters. This is a growing risk for Apple’s stock price as the company is moving into its best-selling month during the year. Sweden’s Riksbank hiked 75bps, more in the pipeline The Riksbank’s 75-bp rate hike took the policy rate to 2.50% and was larger than the 50-bp signalled at the September meeting, although markets were priced for a move of at least that magnitude. EURSEK fell after a kneejerk rally and trades this morning in the middle of the range since September. The worsening inflation outlook in Sweden, with October’s inflation at 9.3% amidst signs of wage pressures as well, suggests more rate hikes potentially remain in the pipeline. The anticipated peak rate is closer to 3% now, but the bank showed an alternate scenario where persistent inflation above 3.5% could prompt the peak rate move higher from 2.84% to 4.65%. Japan’s Tokyo CPI above expectations again, more pressures to come Japan’s Tokyo inflation for November rose to its highest level in 40 years, suggesting that price pressures have not peaked yet. Tokyo CPI came in at 3.8% YoY from 3.5% previously, while the ex-food was at 3.6% YoY (prev 3.4%) and ex-food and energy was at 2.5% YoY (prev 2.2%). Meanwhile, Asia LNG prices are rising again, as colder temperatures in Europe heat up the competition to secure LNG cargoes again. This suggests price pressures will likely continue, and Bank of Japan could still likely consider tweaking its yield curve control policy. Mixed week for commodities The Bloomberg Commodity Index is showing a small gain of 1.3% with overall support being provided by the softer dollar and lower bond yields. This despite a darkening, but temporary, Covid cloud hanging over the Chinese economy and the bond market increasingly pricing in the risk of a recession hitting some of the major economies next year. Gas prices in Europe and the US leading the gains on cold weather demand followed by coffee on short covering and silver supported by a bouncing gold price. At the bottom we find wheat, US diesel, sugar and crude oil. What are we watching next? An important week ahead for incoming US data Markets have generally celebrated the downward shift in Fed tightening expectations and hopes for an eventual opening up of China’s economy, notwithstanding the ramping of the case count there. Next week will offer an interesting test for markets, including the US dollar, which trades at pivotal levels, as we have a look at the next important data macro data points out of the US, especially the Friday November jobs report. As well, we’ll have a look at the ISM Manufacturing survey for the month on Thursday. The question for the run-up into the December 14 FOMC meeting and in the month or so beyond is how long the market can continue to celebrate the Fed easing off the accelerator, when the reason it is doing so is that economic slowing and an eventual recession threaten. Normally, a recession is associated with poor market performance as profits fall and credit risks mount. Earnings to watch Today’s earnings focus is Meituan and Pinduoduo. Chinese earnings in Q3 have been mixed and the technology sector continues to experience headwinds from both the economy and regulation. Analysts expect Pinduoduo, which has so far navigated the environment flawlessly, to deliver revenue growth of 44% y/y and EPS of CNY 4.75 up 288% y/y. Today: Meituan, Pinduoduo Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) US equity markets close three hours early at 1300 local time in NY.  Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-nov-25-2022-25112022