nasdaq

Stocks rose sharply on Tuesday (Dec. 15) as optimism grew that Congress could pass another economic stimulus package before year’s end.News RecapThe Dow Jones gained 337.76 points, or 1.1%, and closed at 30,199.31. The S&P 500 also gained 1.3% and snapped a four-day losing streak. The tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed 1.3% and reached a new record closing high of 12,595.06. However, the Russell 2000 small-cap index once again beat the other indices and gained 2.40%.In the strongest indication yet that we may be coming closer to a stimulus agreement, the top four congressional leaders-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy - all were set to meet after market close on Tuesday (Dec. 15).Democrats and Republicans still remain deeply divided on certain matters, but a two-part bipartisan stimulus plan proposed on Tuesday (Dec. 15) has a chance of passing.The stimulus package would provide around $908 billion in total aid. The first part would be a $748 billion stimulus package that includes an additional $300 per week in federal unemployment benefits and another $300 billion for more PPP loans. This segment would also include money for vaccine distribution, education, and rental assistance. The second segment would be a $160 billion aid package and cover the more partisan issues of business liability protections and financial aid to state and local governments.The first round of shots from the vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech were given in the U.S. on Monday (Dec. 14) with further distributions occurring Tuesday (Dec. 15).FDA staff announced that they endorsed emergency usage of Moderna’s vaccine. The FDA’s vaccine advisory panel will meet Thursday (Dec. 16) to decide whether to recommend clearance for emergency use. Upon authorization, government officials plan to ship nearly 6 million doses of Moderna’s vaccine in addition to the 2.9 million Pfizer doses already in distribution.Apple led the Dow higher, jumping 5% after Nikkei reported that the company will increase iPhone production by about 30% in the first half of 2021.All 11 S&P 500 sectors gained on Tuesday (Dec. 15) and were led by energy and utilities.We are approaching the darkest days of the COVID-19 pandemic yet. 300,000 people across the country have now lost their lives to the disease. However, the worst may not be over yet. According to the CDC Director Robert Redfield, US COVID-19 deaths are likely to exceed the 9/11 death toll for the next 60 days.The short-term may see some pain and/or mixed sentiment due to two major catalysts - the lack of stimulus and an out-of-control virus.According to Art Hogan , chief market strategist at National Securities:“There’s been a tug of war between the vaccine news and the virus news. The only tiebreaker that’s kept the averages on their way higher seems to be the potential for getting stimulus out of gridlock...It certainly feels like one of the proposals that’s on the table ... can go through.”Additionally, Luke Tilley , chief economist at Wilmington Trust, said that another stimulus package was needed to keep the economic recovery from stalling before a mass distribution of a vaccine.“With the continued rising cases and mass vaccinations still a ways out, we could see some further weakness in jobs and even a flattening where we’re not even adding jobs at all ... that’s absolutely a possibility for this next jobs report,” Tilley said. “And if we were to not get another stimulus package, you’re going to have 10 to 11 million people fall off the unemployment rolls right away, and that would hit spending as well.”On the other hand, the mid-term and long-term optimism is very real. While there may be some semblance of a “Santa Claus Rally” occurring, the general consensus between market strategists is to look past the short-term pain, and focus on the longer-term gains.According to Robert Dye, Comerica Bank Chief Economist :“I am pretty bullish on the second half of next year, but the trouble is we have to get there...As we all know, we’re facing a lot of near-term risks. But I think when we get into the second half of next year, we get the vaccine behind us, we’ve got a lot of consumer optimism, business optimism coming up and a huge amount of pent-up demand to spend out with very low interest rates.”In the short-term, there will be some optimistic and pessimistic days. On some days, like Monday (Dec. 14), the broader “pandemic” market trend will happen - cyclical and recovery stocks lagging, and tech and “stay-at-home” stocks leading. On other days, like Tuesday (Dec. 15), there will be a broad market rally due to optimism and 2021 related euphoria. On other days (and in my opinion this will be most trading days), markets will trade largely mixed, sideways, and reflect uncertainty.However, if a stimulus deal passes before the end of the year, all bets are off. It could mean very good things for short-term market gains.In the mid-term and long-term, there is certainly a light at the end of the tunnel. Once this pandemic is finally brought under control and vaccines are mass deployed, volatility will stabilize, and optimism and relief will permeate the markets. Stocks especially dependent on a rapid recovery and reopening such as small-caps should thrive.Due to this tug of war between sentiments though, it is truly a challenge to predict the future with certainty.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there is short-term pessimism. A short-term correction is very possible. But it is hard to say with conviction that a big correction will happen.The premium analysis this morning will showcase a “Drivers and Divers” section that will break down some sectors that are in and out of favor. As a token of my appreciation for your patronage, I decided to give you a free sample of a “driver” and “diver” sector. Do me a favor and let me know what you think of this segment! Always happy to hear from you. DrivingEnergy (XLE)Energy is a sector largely dependent on sentiment, with several question marks.On one hand, if you are bullish, all of this vaccine news bodes well for a full economic reopening by the second half of 2021. That means travel, and therefore fuel demand, could surge back to pre-pandemic levels. WTI crude futures on Tuesday (Dec. 15) extended gains to trade around 1% higher at $47.5 a barrel due to cautious optimism on further US stimulus in addition to the vaccine(s).On the other hand, there are very real short-term concerns. There are fresh concerns over global fuel demand as countries, states, and cities across the world tighten coronavirus restrictions. Germany and the Netherlands will enter a new lockdown, while the UK government imposed tighter Covid-19 measures on London. In New York City, Mayor Bill De Blasio warned that the city is on the path towards a second full shutdown. Governor Andrew Cuomo already banned all indoor dining. The newly inaugurated Mayor of Baltimore, Brandon Scott, also banned all dining - both indoor and outdoor. OPEC also lowered its projections for global fuel consumption in Q1 2021 by 1 million barrels a day as well. The organization will meet on January 4th to evaluate if they can move on with supply increases. Much anticipated data from the EIA is also due on Wednesday.This is such an unpredictable sector experiencing great volatility. It is almost as if energy is either the S&P 500’s leader or its laggard. There is never anything in between. These are simply risky and major percentage swings on a day-to-day basis.It is a very difficult sector to make a bullish call on. There are still simply too many headwinds to be overly euphoric. While energy is still largely undervalued, and the RSI is no longer overbought, the volume is not stable. Most importantly, nobody truly knows what oil’s long-term prospects are, with the increased adoption of renewable energy and ESG investing.This year we have seen that when energy rallies, it eventually pulls back. Judging from the chart, that inevitable pullback could possibly come again. For the month of December, the ETF is up nearly 8%. But I would be more confident in either calling BUY or HOLD or a pullback - not during such a volatile time.While there is vaccine optimism now that there wasn’t before, conditions are largely the same on the ground with regard to COVID-19 and travel demand. Therefore, my call is to take profits and SELL. DivingCommunication Services (XLC)I really don’t like this sector and I will explain why. Although the Communication Services ETF touched a 52-week high recently, the gains have not been as stable or as robust compared to other sectors. But this is generally par the course for communications stocks. This is a sector that continuously underperforms other sectors both in the short-term and long-term.While traditionally this is a good sector to find value in, right now I just don’t see it. I see downside risk without the same type of upside potential as exists in other sectors that may benefit more from a successful vaccine roll-out and economic reopening.Furthermore, the ETF’s volume is already low, and has been in decline. This screams volatility to me.I just can’t see how you would benefit buying into this sector. It is hard to foresee how this sector will truly benefit from a vaccine and 2021 reopening relative to other sectors. Therefore, I give it a SELL call.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

The major indices closed mixed on Wednesday (Dec. 16), as the Nasdaq hit yet another record close amidst stimulus optimism and the Fed’s dovish tone.News RecapAlthough the Dow Jones closed lower by 44.77 points, or 0.15%, the S&P 500 gained for the second day in a row and rose by 0.18%. The Nasdaq closed once again at a record high and gained 0.5%.Sentiment for the day started negatively after the Commerce Department reported a steeper-than-expected drop in U.S. retail sales. The department stated that retail sales fell by 1.1% in November compared to estimates of 0.3%.Cautious optimism that some sort of stimulus could be passed before the end of the year encouraged investors.According to Politico , Congress was on the brink of a $900 billion stimulus deal that would include a new round of direct payments to consumers. However, that package would exclude the more contentious areas of liability shields for businesses and state and local aid.We have reached the deadliest weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic. More than 300,000 total COVID-19 related deaths have now been confirmed in the U.S., with over 16 million confirmed cases. Additionally, US officials reported 3,400 new COVID-19 deaths - a daily record.After an FDA panel officially endorsed Moderna (MRNA) - following a review which confirmed safety and efficacy earlier in the week – the big day is finally here. On Thursday (Dec. 17), the FDA will officially vote on Moderna's vaccine. This will strongly complement the mass deployment of Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech’s (BNTX) vaccine.The Federal Reserve ’s announcement on monetary policy was largely as dovish as expected. The Fed vowed to continue its asset purchase program at the current rate, “until substantial further progress has been made toward the committee’s maximum employment and price stability goals.”Microsoft (MSFT) and Salesforce (CRM) led the Dow with gains of 2.4% and 1.6%, respectively, while Walgreens (WBA) was the laggard and declined 2.15%.Moderna (MRNA), despite its big week ahead, dropped 6.9%.While there is some short-term uncertainty and mixed sentiment, there is some general consensus: While the short-term may see some pain and/or mixed sentiment, it may be worth it for the medium-term and long-term optimism.The overwhelming majority of market strategists are bullish on equities for 2021- despite near-term risks. Outside of the pandemic raging to out of control levels, another near-term risk that has been largely overlooked is the Senate runoff election in Georgia. Investors have largely already priced in a divided government - however, if Republicans end up losing both seats in Georgia, this could potentially upend everything.According to Jimmy Lee, CEO of the Wealth Consulting Group ,“I think that we can get a little bit of consolidation before year-end just due to normal selling at the year-end for rebalancing or tax loss harvesting. Also, depending on where the pulse is for the Senate race in Georgia, investors might want to get ahead of that if they think that capital gains taxes may go up in the future...So that could cause some additional selling before year-end and we could get a little bit of a pullback. But I am very bullish on equities at this point. And I do think we may get a little bit more of a rotation into the economy-opening sectors.”Meanwhile, progress on the stimulus package appears to be more optimistic than many expected in the near-term.“The odds of a fiscal deal before year’s end have been improving,” Goldman Sachs economists led by Jan Hatzius wrote in a note Tuesday (Dec. 15). “While we had expected a smaller package to pass now with a larger package waiting until early 2021, it appears increasingly likely that most of this could pass this week.”While markets for the rest of 2020 (and perhaps early 2021), will wrestle with the negative reality on the ground and optimism for an economic rebound, the general consensus appears to be looking past the short-term painful realities, and focusing more on the longer-term - a world where COVID-19 is expected to be a thing of the past and we are back to normal.In the short-term, there will be some optimistic and pessimistic days. On other days, such as Wednesday (Dec. 16) (and in my opinion this will be most trading days), markets will trade largely mixed, sideways, and reflect uncertainty. Therefore, it is truly hard to say with conviction what will happen with markets in the next 1-3 months. However, if a stimulus deal passes within the next week, it could mean very good things for short-term market gains.In the mid-term and long-term, there is certainly a light at the end of the tunnel. Once this pandemic is finally brought under control and vaccines are mass deployed to the general public, volatility will stabilize, and optimism and relief will permeate the markets. Stocks especially dependent on a rapid recovery and reopening such as small-caps should thrive.Due to this tug of war between sentiments, it is truly hard to say with any degree of certainty whether another crash or bear market will come.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there is short-term pessimism. A short-term correction is very possible. But it is hard to say with conviction that a big correction will happen. Nasdaq Hits Another Record Close - Too Good to Be True?Is the Nasdaq’s performance since its sharp sell-off last Wednesday (Dec. 9) too good to be true? Truthfully, I don’t know. But it’s very possible - especially if shut down measurements become harsher and stricter and investors return to the “stay-at-home” trade that led markets from April through the end of October.Additionally, I still have many concerns about tech valuations and their astoundingly inflated levels. Last week’s IPOs of DoorDash (DASH) and AirBnB (ABNB) reflect this and invoke traumatic memories of the dotcom bubble era. I believe that more pullbacks along the lines of last Wednesday (Dec. 9) could inevitably come in the short-term. Frankly, it would make me feel far more confident about initiating tech positions as well for the long-term.Pay close attention to the RSI. While an overbought RSI does not automatically mean a trend reversal, I called keeping a very close eye on this for the Nasdaq. Last Wednesday’s (Dec. 9th) Nasdaq pullback after it exceeded a 70 RSI reflects that.The Nasdaq has sharply rallied in the week since then. But its RSI is nearly 69. Monitor this . If the index goes on another bull-run and hits more record closes, it could surely exceed an RSI of 70 by the end of market close on Thursday (Dec. 17). I did not make a conviction call last week but I will now- if the RSI exceeds 70 this time, take profits- but don’t fully exit .One thing I do like is how stable the volume has been this week and since the sharp sell-off last week. Stable volume is a good thing, especially if one is concerned about volatility. Low volume, especially a declining trend, means that there are fewer shares trading. Lower volume also means less liquidity across the index, and an increase in stock price volatility.On pessimistic days, having NASDAQ exposure is crucial because of all the “stay-at-home” trade. However, positive vaccine-related news always induces the risk of downward pressure on tech names - both on and off the NASDAQ. What concerns me most are sharp sell-offs due to overheating and mania. Don’t ever let anyone tell you “this time is different” if fears of the dot-com bubble are discussed. History repeats itself, especially in markets.It is very hard to say with conviction to sell your tech shares though. However, as I said before - if the RSI exceeds 70 again - consider selling some shares and taking profits. For now, however, the NASDAQ stays a HOLD .For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the NASDAQ, the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) is a good option.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Major averages hit both all-time intraday and closing highs on Thursday (Dec. 17), riding on vaccine optimism and hopes that a stimulus package could be passed in a matter of days.News RecapThe Dow Jones climbed 148.83 points, or 0.5%, to 30,303.37 for a record close. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit intraday and closing records as well and gained 0.6% and 0.8%, respectively. In typical fashion, the Russell 2000 small-cap index once again beat the other indices and gained 1.30%.Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on Thursday (Dec. 17) said that a stimulus deal was closing in. Congress appears to be nearing a $900 million stimulus package that would include direct payments to individuals. However, the package would exclude the partisan issues of liability protections for businesses and aid to state and local governments.Despite the optimistic tone of the day, jobless claims disappointed for a second consecutive week. Jobless claims totaled 885,000 last week, hitting their highest levels since early September. This was also significantly worse than the expected 808,000.An FDA panel officially endorsed Moderna's (MRNA) COVID-19 vaccine. It could officially be cleared for emergency usage as early as Friday (Dec. 18), and be distributed as soon as after the weekend. Upon authorization, government officials plan to ship nearly 6 million doses of Moderna’s vaccine in addition to the 2.9 million Pfizer (PFE) doses already in distribution.Real estate, materials and health care were the best-performing sectors in the S&P 500, each gaining over 1%. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) rose 2.6% to lead the Dow higher.Tesla (TSLA) gained 5.32% and will now officially join the S&P 500.We are in the darkest days of the pandemic. On average, the U.S. is recording at least 215,729 additional COVID-19 cases a day . More than 114,200 Americans are also now hospitalized , and over 3,400 new deaths were recorded. According to the CDC Director, Robert Redfield, US COVID-19 deaths are likely to exceed the 9/11 death toll for the next 60 days.While sentiment has been positive over the last two trading sessions, there will still be a short-term tug of war between good news and bad news. It’s quite simple really - until a stimulus is passed and the virus is somewhat brought under control, there will be negative pressure on the markets. Even though a stimulus package passing appears to be imminent, time is running short and we may be at a fork in the road.For now, though, hopes that a deal could pass through are sending stocks higher.“Stimulus is still the main driver in the market right now until they get something done, and it does appear there is some motivation on that front to get something done,” said Dan Deming, managing director at KKM Financial, further stating that “the market’s benefiting from that (enthusiasm).”Additionally, Luke Tilley , chief economist at Wilmington Trust, said that another stimulus package was needed to keep the economic recovery from stalling before the mass distribution of a vaccine.“With the continued rising cases and mass vaccinations still a ways out, we could see some further weakness in jobs and even a flattening where we’re not even adding jobs at all ... that’s absolutely a possibility for this next jobs report,” Tilley said. “And if we were to not get another stimulus package, you’re going to have 10 to 11 million people fall off the unemployment rolls right away, and that would hit spending as well.”The overwhelming majority of market strategists are bullish on equities for 2021 though, despite near-term risks. While there may be some semblance of a “Santa Claus Rally” occurring, the general consensus between market strategists is to look past the short-term pain and focus on the longer-term gains. The mid-term and long-term optimism is very real.According to Robert Dye, Comerica Bank Chief Economist :“I am pretty bullish on the second half of next year, but the trouble is we have to get there...As we all know, we’re facing a lot of near-term risks. But I think when we get into the second half of next year, we get the vaccine behind us, we’ve got a lot of consumer optimism, business optimism coming up and a huge amount of pent-up demand to spend out with very low interest rates.”In the short-term, there will be some optimistic and pessimistic days. On some days, the broader “pandemic” market trend will happen, with cyclical and recovery stocks lagging, and tech and “stay-at-home” stocks leading. Sometimes a broad sell-off based on fear or overheating may occur as well. On other days, there will be a broad market rally due to optimism and 2021-related euphoria. Additionally, there will be days (and in my opinion this will be most trading days), when markets will trade largely mixed, sideways, and reflect uncertainty. But if we get an early Christmas present and a stimulus package passes, all bets are off. It could mean very good things for short-term market gains.In the mid-term and long-term, there is certainly a light at the end of the tunnel. Once this pandemic is finally brought under control and vaccines are mass deployed, volatility will stabilize, and optimism and relief will permeate the markets. Stocks especially dependent on a rapid recovery and reopening, such as small-caps, should thrive.Due to this tug of war between sentiments though, it is truly hard to say with any degree of certainty that a correction will happen or more record high rallies will occur.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there is short-term pessimism. A short-term correction is very possible, but it is hard to say with conviction that a big correction will happen.The premium analysis this morning will showcase a “Drivers and Divers” section that will break down some sectors that are in and out of favor. As a token of my appreciation for your patronage, I decided to give you a free sample of a “driver” and “diver” sector. Please do me a favor and let me know what you think of this segment! I’m always happy to hear from you. DrivingSmall-Caps (IWM)In typical fashion, the Russell 2000 small-cap index once again beat the other indices and gained 1.30% on Thursday (Dec. 17). I truly love small-cap stocks in the long-term and this small-cap rally is more encouraging than the “stay-at-home” stock rallies from April/May. This is a bullish sign for a long-term economic recovery and shows that investors are optimistic that a vaccine will return life to relatively normalcy in 2021.I do have some concerns of overheating in the short-term however, especially with the headwinds that still exist. The Russell keeps outperforming no matter what the market sentiment of the day or week is. For example, although the week ended December 11th was an overall down week, the Russell 2000 STILL managed to outperform the larger indices and eek out another weekly gain of 1.02%. While it is remarkable, I do not see how this is sustainable in the short-term.The performance of the Russell 2000 index since early November has been nothing short of staggering. Although the Russell index is composed mostly of small-cap value cyclical stocks dependent on the recovery of the broader economy, and may be more adversely affected on “sell-the-news” kind of days, its hot streak since November has not cooled off in the slightest.Since the start of November, the Russell 2000 has skyrocketed and considerably outperformed the other major indices. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), in comparison to the ETFs tracking the Dow (DIA), S&P (SPY), and Nasdaq (QQQ), has risen 28.62%. This is at least 13% higher than all of the other major indices. Since the start of December, the Russell ETF has also outperformed the other ETFs between 4%-5%.However, when looking at the chart for the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) , it becomes pretty evident that small-cap stocks have overheated in the short-term. These are stocks that will experience more short-term volatility. Stocks don’t always go up but the Russell’s trajectory since November has been essentially vertical. The IWM ETF keeps hitting record highs while the RSI keeps overinflating way past overbought levels. I would SELL and trim profits for the short-term but do not fully exit these positions. A stimulus could be imminent and send these stocks soaring more. But if there is a pullback, BUY for the long-term recovery. DivingUS Dollar ($USD)The U.S. Dollar’s plunge continues to its lowest levels in years. I called the return to oversold levels this week despite the currency piercing the 91-level last Wednesday (Dec. 9). I knew it was “fool's gold” and not the sign of any sort of breakout. I have been calling the dollar’s weakness for weeks despite its low levels, and I expect the decline to continue.For the first time since April 2018, the world’s reserve currency is now trading below 90.Why did the dollar plunge so much on Thursday (Dec. 17)? You can thank the Fed! After the Federal Reserve’s dovish tone and reassurance on Wednesday (Dec. 16) that it won’t be soon tapering its bond purchases, bearish traders took this as a sign to continue selling the dollar.“The latest blow to the dollar came from the Fed, which vowed not to touch policy even if the outlook for the U.S. economy brightens as it now expects,” said Joe Manimbo , senior analyst at Western Union Business Solutions.After hitting a nearly 3-year high in March, the dollar has plunged in excess of 13%.Meanwhile, other currencies continued strengthening on Thursday (Dec. 17), relative to the dollar:The euro rose 0.6% to $1.2270, hitting its highest level versus the dollar since April 2018. The euro is up more than 9% year to date.The dollar fell to a more-than-three-year low versus the Japanese yen and declined 0.4% to ¥103.07.The British pound was up 0.5% at $1.3575 - its highest since April 2018.Both the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar each gained 0.6% versus the US dollar.The US dollar was off 0.1% vs. the Canadian dollar.After briefly rising above an oversold RSI of 30 last week, the dollar’s RSI is at an alarmingly low 22.96. The dollar is also significantly trading below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.Many believe that the dollar could fall further too.If the world returns to relative normalcy within the next year, investors may be more “risk-on” and less “risk-off,” meaning that the dollar’s value will decline further.Additionally, because of all of the economic stimulus and seemingly imminent additional stimulus, the dollar’s value has declined and could have more room to fall. With a dovish Fed and record low-interest rates projected to remain this low for at least another two years, the dollar may not appreciate again for a very long time.While the dollar may have more room to fall, this MAY be a good opportunity to buy the world’s reserve currency at a discount - at least for a quick short-term trade. The low RSI reflects this.But I just have too many doubts on the effect of interest rates this low, government stimulus, strengthening of emerging markets, and inflation to be remotely bullish on the dollar’s prospects over the next 1-3 years.For now, where possible, HEDGE OR SELL USD exposure.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Quick UpdateDear readers, before we get into today’s news and stock analysis and because I’ve been receiving many questions from you, I’d like to first clarify what I mean by BUY, SELL, or HOLD. Here, I am largely referring to outperforming the S&P 500. When the conditions favor adding risk and buying the U.S. market overall, I will be issuing an "alert." I am not sure yet whether I will be moving to entry prices or target prices & stop losses, however, I have discussed this internally with the team at Sunshine Profits. In the current market environment, when fundamentals have essentially fallen to the wayside, I prefer to invest directionally rather than being married to certain levels in the market. In my view, trading with specific figures in mind can hurt long term returns if you do not let your winners run and cut your losers fast. I do update my calls daily, though, and any changes will be highlighted! Thank you again for being such great readers - I truly value your trust. Stay tuned for updates and let me know if you have any other questions!Let’s begin Monday by reviewing what happened at the close of last week.Volatile trading occurred on Friday (Dec. 18), with Congress struggling to close out a stimulus package, causing stocks to slip from record highs.News RecapThe Dow Jones fell 124.32 points, or 0.4%, to 30,179.05. At its session low, the index fell more than 270 points. The S&P 500 also dipped 0.4% and snapped a three-day winning streak. The Nasdaq fell only 0.1%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 fell 0.41%.While Congress claims to be on the brink of a $900 billion stimulus deal , it is working against time. In public, leaders are speaking optimistically that a deal will pass, however, there are last-minute partisan disputes on direct payments, small business loans, and a boost to unemployment insuranceThere was an unusually large amount of trading volume on Friday (Dec. 18) as Tesla (TSLA) was set to officially join the S&P 500 after the closing bell. Tesla is being added to the index in one fell swoop, marking the largest rebalancing of the S&P 500 in history. After surging 700% in 2020, from day 1, Tesla will be the seventh-largest company in the S&P in terms of market cap.The FDA officially approved Moderna’s vaccine for emergency use. Government officials plan to ship nearly 6 million doses of Moderna’s vaccine in addition to the 2.9 million Pfizer (PFE) doses already in distribution.Despite Friday’s (Dec. 18) losses, the indices closed out the week with mild gains. The Dow closed up 0.4%, the S&P 500 advanced 1.3%, and the NASDAQ closed up 3.1%. The small-cap Russell 2000 continued its strong run as well and gained 2.5% for the week.Meanwhile, the pandemic has reached its darkest days and is hitting unforeseen and unprecedented numbers . The U.S. shattered the previous record of daily deals on Wednesday (Dec. 16), recording over 3,600 deaths. As of Friday (Dec. 18), the country has also now surpassed 17 million confirmed cases, with death totals soaring past 300,000. California, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Texas alone reported more than 1,000 deaths in the past week.While the general focus between both investors and analysts appears to be on the long-term potential in 2021, there are certainly short-term concerns. Inevitably, there will be a short-term tug of war between good news and bad news. For now, though, the main catalyst is the stimulus package. If a stimulus package is passed before Christmas, the markets could benefit. If it doesn’t, markets will drop. Time is running short and we may be at a fork in the road.According to Luke Tilley , chief economist at Wilmington Trust, another stimulus package was needed to keep the economic recovery from stalling before the mass distribution of a vaccine.“With the continued rising cases and mass vaccinations still a ways out, we could see some further weakness in jobs and even a flattening where we’re not even adding jobs at all ... that’s absolutely a possibility for this next jobs report,” Tilley said. “And if we were to not get another stimulus package, you’re going to have 10 to 11 million people fall off the unemployment rolls right away, and that would hit spending as well.”However, despite near-term risks, the overwhelming majority of market strategists are bullish on equities for 2021, especially for the second half of the year. While there may be some short-term worries, the consensus between market strategists is to look past the short-term pain and focus on the longer-term gains. Although the economic recovery could stutter in the early half of the year, the general focus is on the second half of the year when we could potentially return to normal. Many analysts expect double-digit gains to continue in 2021, with strategists in a CNBC survey expecting an average 9.5% rise in 2021 for the S&P 500.Additionally, according to Robert Dye, Comerica Bank Chief Economist :“I am pretty bullish on the second half of next year, but the trouble is we have to get there...As we all know, we’re facing a lot of near-term risks. But I think when we get into the second half of next year, we get the vaccine behind us, we’ve got a lot of consumer optimism, business optimism coming up and a huge amount of pent-up demand to spend out with very low interest rates.”In the short-term, there will be some optimistic and pessimistic days. On some days, the broader “pandemic” market trend will happen, with cyclical and recovery stocks lagging, and tech and “stay-at-home” stocks leading. Sometimes a broad sell-off based on fear or overheating may occur as well. On other days, there will be a broad market rally due to optimism and 2021-related euphoria. Additionally, there will be days (and in my opinion this will be most trading days), when markets will trade largely mixed, sideways, and reflect uncertainty. But if we get an early Christmas present and a stimulus package passes, all bets are off. It could mean very good things for short-term market gains.Despite the optimistic potential, the road towards normalcy will hit inevitable speed bumps. While it is truly hard to say with conviction that a short-term rally or bear market will come, I do believe that some consolidation and a correction could be possible in the short-term on the way towards another strong rally in the second half of 2021.Outside of economic damages and an out-of-control virus, the market itself is flashing potential signs of over-optimism and euphoria. In its most recent survey, for example, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) found that 48.1% of investors identified as being bullish - well above the historical average of 38%. With an overabundance of cocky, euphoric, and optimistic investors, the market becomes more vulnerable to selling pressure. Corrections are very common though. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017). Because there has not been one since the lows of March, we could be due for one in the early part of 2021.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction in early 2021 is very possible, but I do not believe, with certainty, that a correction above ~20% leading to a bear market will happen. Has the Nasdaq Officially Overheated?Don’t ever let anyone tell you “this time is different” if fears of the dot-com bubble are discussed. History repeats itself, especially in markets. I have many concerns about tech valuations and their astoundingly inflated levels. The recent IPOs of DoorDash (DASH) and AirBnB (ABNB) reflect this. I believe that more pullbacks along the lines of Wednesday, December 9th’s session could inevitably come in the short-term.Pay close attention to the RSI. While an overbought RSI does not automatically mean a trend reversal, I called keeping a very close eye on this for the Nasdaq. The December 9th Nasdaq pullback, after it exceeded a 70 RSI, reflects that.The RSI is now above 70. Monitor this . With unstable volume to start the week on the horizon, as Tesla officially joins the S&P 500, I am calling for some short-term volatility. I did not make a conviction call last week but I am not making that mistake again. Because the RSI is officially above 70, and because I foresee unstable volume thanks to Tesla, take profits and SELL some shares, but do not fully exit .While tech has overheated, there is still some very real long-term optimism based on stimulus hopes and 2021’s potential.Furthermore, on pessimistic days, having Nasdaq exposure is crucial because of the “stay-at-home” trade.For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the NASDAQ, the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) is a good option.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Quick UpdateAs a quick update to kick off today’s newsletter, I would like to summarize my correct calls and what I profited on since beginning to publish these updates. While nobody can predict the future, the major calls I am most proud of since producing these letters are 1) adding emerging market exposure and 2) hedging or selling the U.S. Dollar.Emerging markets have been some of the best performers in 2020, and I have made some bullish calls on specific regional markets for 2021 as well. I have been touting emerging markets since my first report, but when I switched my focus to specific regions, my calls became even more correct. On December 3rd, I called Taiwan ( EWT ETF) the best bet for emerging market exposure while avoiding the risks and baked in profits of China. Since then, the EWT ETF which tracks Taiwan has gained over 4.3% while the MCHI ETF which tracks China has fallen over 3.3%. The Taiwan ETF has also outperformed the SPY S&P 500 ETF and the IEUR ETF which tracks Europe.My calls on the U.S. dollar were also correct. Since I started doing these newsletters about a month and a half ago, I consistently reiterated that the dollar should be hedged or avoided because of the Fed’s policies, effect of interest rates this low for this long, government stimulus, strengthening of emerging markets, and inflation. I also said that any minor rally the dollar would experience would be fool’s good. In the last month and a half, the dollar has fallen around 2.3%, and since it briefly pierced the 91-level on December 9th , it has fallen another 1%.Markets kicked off the final week of 2020 with a surge towards record highs after President Trump finally signed off on the stimulus bill.News RecapAll major indices closed at record highs. The Dow Jones rose 204.10 points higher, or 0.7%, to close at 30,403.97. The S&P 500 climbed 0.9% to 3,735.36, and the Nasdaq rose 0.7% to 12,899.42. Meanwhile, the small-cap Russell 2000 underperformed and declined 0.38%.After President Trump called the $900 billion stimulus package an unsuitable “disgrace,” and alluded to possibly vetoing the bill, over the weekend the president signed the bill into law . By signing off, a government shutdown was averted while unemployment benefits were extended to millions of Americans.After President Trump demanded stimulus checks for Americans to be raised from $600 to $2,000 each , the Democrat-led House voted for this measure on Monday (Dec. 28). The ball is now in the GOP-led Senate’s court on the measure. They are not expected to approve the measure.Apple led the Dow higher, and gained 3.6%. Disney also climbed nearly 3%.Communication services, consumer discretionary and tech were the best performing sectors in the S&P 500, with each rising over 1%.Amidst fears of a COVID-19 “surge on top of a surge” after the Christmas holiday, over one million people in the U.S. have now been vaccinated. Meanwhile, the U.S. has averaged at least 184,000 new infections per day.Markets cheered President Trump’s signing of the stimulus package and are further encouraged by the possibility of larger stimulus checks. After the market traded flat last week, it kicked off the final week of 2020 with a bang. Although it is still very possible that consolidation, profit taking, and rebalancing could happen in this shortened week, the general focus of both investors and analysts has appeared to be the long-term potential of 2021.As Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report said :“The five pillars of the rally (Federal stimulus, FOMC stimulus, vaccine rollout, divided government and no double dip recession) remain largely in place, and until that changes, the medium and longer-term outlook for stocks will be positive.”While I still do believe that there will be a short-term tug of war between good news and bad news, I am now convinced that these moves are manic and based on sentiment. There has not been a pullback to end the year as I anticipated. But I still do believe that markets have overheated, and that between now and the end of Q1 2020 a correction could happen.There is optimistic potential, but the road towards normalcy will hit inevitable speed bumps.I do believe though that a correction is healthy and could be a good thing. Corrections happen way more often than people realize. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017). I believe we are overdue for one since there has not been one since the lows of March. This is healthy market behavior and could be a very good buying opportunity for what I believe will be a great second half of the year.The mid-term and long-term optimism are very real, despite the near-term risks. The passage of the stimulus package only solidifies the robust vaccine-induced tailwinds entering 2021.The general consensus is that 2021 could be a strong year for stocks, despite short-term headwinds. According to a new CNBC survey which polled more than 100 chief investment officers and portfolio managers, two-thirds of respondents said the Dow Jones will most likely finish 2021 at 35,000 - a roughly 16% gain from Thursday’s close of 30,199.87. Five percent also said that the index could climb to 40,000 by the end of 2021.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and Q1 2021 is very possible. But I do not believe, with conviction, that a correction above ~20% leading to a bear market will happen. Will the Dow Approach 31,000 or 29,000 Before Mid-2021?Figure 1 - Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU)After trading as low as around 29,650 at one point last Monday (Dec. 21), the Dow has been firmly back above 30,000 for the last week. The blue-chip index also closed at yet another record high on Monday (Dec. 28).I do think that the Dow has some more room to run in the next few days to close off the year. Trump’s signing of the stimulus bill was a belated Christmas gift for investors everywhere. If the Senate approves $2,000 stimulus checks, then another short-term pop can certainly happen.My short-term questions though still remain as to whether or not the Dow can not only stay above 30,000 for more than a week at a time but also hit more all-time highs before March. The volume has also been very unstable as of late, but that is likely due to shortened trading weeks to close off the year.In the short-term, I believe it is just as likely for the Dow to approach 29,000 as it is to approach 31,000 in the early months of 2021.While I think a 35,000 call to close out 2021 is a bit aggressive, I do believe that the second half of 2021 could show robust gains for the index.With so much uncertainty and the RSI still firmly in hold territory, the call on the Dow stays a HOLD.This is a very challenging time to make calls with conviction. But one thing I do believe is that if and when there is a drop in the index, it will not be strong and sharp relative to the gains since March, let alone November. I believe that more likely than not we will be in a sideways holding pattern until vaccines are available to the general public by mid-2021.For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the Dow, the SPDR Dow Jones ETF (DIA) is a strong option.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

In a surprise twist, the Nasdaq surged by a healthy 4.2%, managing to close the week at an all-time high. What’s happening to tech stocks?Surging, gaining...come again?Wasn't tech supposed to wither away and die thanks to be big bad Democrat boogeymen? Wasn’t the radical Biden tax agenda and regulatory framework supposed to send your favorite tech stocks plummeting? Wasn’t Biden’s tax plan supposed to take an estimated 5-10% off the earnings per share?For now, it seems like the market is putting more of its hopes into Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus plan and ignoring his tax and regulation plans. As Treasury Secretary and former Fed Chair Janet Yellen claimed, Biden's primary focus is aiding American families (i.e., stimulus, low-interest rates) and, for now, not raising taxes.But nothing is for sure with this stimulus. Republicans will resist it, and some moderate Democrats may do so as well. With Vice President Kamala Harris as the only tiebreaker for a Democrat majority in the Senate, Biden needs all the support he can get to pass this aggressive stimulus.I maintain my view that the market is too complacent, and that we are about to enter a correction at some point in the short-term. It still reminds me of the Q4 2018 pullback ( read my story here ).For one, valuations are absurd. Tech IPOs are a circus, the S&P 500 is at or near its most-expensive level in recent history on most measures, and the Russell 2000 has never traded this high above its 200-day moving average.While stimulus could be useful for stocks in the short-term, it could almost certainly mean the return of inflation too by mid-year. The worst part about it? The Fed will likely let it run hot. With debt rising and consumer spending expected to increase as vaccines are rolled out to the masses, the Fed is undoubtedly more likely to let inflation rise than letting interest rates rise.Others, however, believe that the market reflects optimism that the global economy will recover with the eventual lifting of COVID-related restrictions and more widely-available vaccines. John Studzinski , vice chairman of Pimco, believes that market valuations are strong and reflect expectations of this eventual reopening and economic recovery by the second half of the year.All of this simply tells me that the market remains a pay-per-view fight between good news and bad news.We may trade sideways this quarter- that would not shock me in the least. But I think we are long overdue for a correction since we haven’t seen one since last March.Corrections are healthy for markets and more common than most realize. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017).A correction could also be an excellent buying opportunity for what should be a great second half of the year.Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and Q1 2021 is possible. I don't think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market will happen.In a report released last Tuesday (Jan. 19), Goldman Sachs shared the same sentiments.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one where I could help people who needed help, instead of the ultra-high net worth. Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening, and I welcome your thoughts and questions.We have a critical week ahead with the Fed set to have its first monetary policy meeting of the year and big earnings announcements on the horizon. Best of luck, have an excellent trading week, and have fun! We'll check back in with you all mid-week. Are We in a Tech Bubble or Not?Figure 1- Nasdaq Composite Index $COMPSome of the hottest performing tech stocks announce earnings this week such as Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Tesla (TSLA) (yes I consider Tesla more of a tech stock than a car stock), and more.Pay very close attention.Although I am bullish on specific tech sectors such as cloud computing, e-commerce, and fintech for 2021, I’m concerned about the mania consuming tech stocks.Tech valuations, and especially the tech IPO market, terrify me. It reminds me a lot of the dot-com bubble 20-years ago. Remember, the dot-com bubble was a major crash in the Nasdaq after excessive speculation and IPOs sent any internet-related stock soaring. Between 1995-2000 the Nasdaq surged 400%. By October 2002, the Nasdaq declined by a whopping 78%.I have no other words to describe it besides the Nasdaq right now as a circus. Will the bubble pop now? That remains to be seen. But the similarities between now and 2000 are striking.I am sticking with the theme of using the RSI to judge how to call the Nasdaq. An overbought RSI does not automatically mean a trend reversal, but with the Nasdaq, this appears to have been a consistent pattern over the last few weeks.The Nasdaq pulled back on December 9 after exceeding an RSI of 70 and briefly pulled back again after passing 70 again around Christmas time. We also exceeded a 70 RSI just before the new year, and what happened on the first trading day of 2021? A decline of 1.47%.The last time I changed my Nasdaq call from a HOLD to a SELL on January 11 after the RSI exceeded 70, the Nasdaq declined again by 1.45%.The Nasdaq has an RSI of around 72 again, and I’m switching the call back to SELL. The Nasdaq is trading in a precise pattern and I am basing my calls on that pattern.I still love tech and am bullish for 2021. But I need to see the Nasdaq have a legitimate cooldown period and move closer to its 50-day moving average before considering it a BUY.For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the NASDAQ, the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) is a good option.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

The narrow trading range in stocks continues, and the shallow sideways correction will eventually resolve itself with another upleg. The signs are countless, and the riskier part of the credit market spectrum agrees. As money flows from the Tresury markets, and sizable cash balances are sitting on many a balance sheet, there is plenty of fuel to power the S&P 500 advance.With volatility in the tame low 20s and the put/call ratio again moving down, the bears‘ prospects are bleak. As I wrote last week, their time is running out, and a new stock market upleg approaches. It‘s the bond market that‘s under pressure, with both investment grade corporate bonds and long-dated Treasuries suffering in the accelerated decline.Gold is the most affected, as the sensitivity of its reaction to the rising long-tern yields, has picked up very noticeably. How long before these draw both the Fed‘s attention and action – what will we learn from Powell‘s testimony on Tue and Wed? And when will the much awaited stimulus finally arrive, and force repricing beyond the metals markets?Before that, gold remains on razor‘s edge, while silver leads and platinum flies for all the green hydrogen promise. The dollar has given back on Thu and Fri what it gained two days before, and remains in its bear market. Not even rising yields were able to generate much demand for the world reserve currency. Its lower prices stand to help gold thanks to the historically prevailing negative correlation, counterbalancing the Treasury yields pressure.Plenty of action that‘s bound to decide the coming weeks‘ shape in the precious metals. And not only there as oil experienced 2 days of lossess in a row – practically unheard of in 2021 so far. On Saturday, I‘ve added a new section to my site, Latest Highlight, for easier orientation in the milestone calls and timeless pieces beyond the S&P 500 and gold. Enjoy!Let‘s get right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookThe weekly indicators suggest that a reversal is still not likely. There is no conviction behind the weekly decline, and signs are still pointing to a sideways consolidation underway.The daily chart reflects the relatively uneventful trading – we‘re in a phase of bullish base building before powering off to new highs. See how little the daily indicators have retreated from their extended readings, and the barely noticeable price decline associated.S&P 500 InternalsAll the three market breadth indicators show improved readings, and my eyes are on new highs new lows throwing their weight behind the prior two indicators‘ advance. The overall impression is one of balance.The value to growth (VTV:QQQ) ratio shows that tech (XLK ETF) has fallen a bit out out of step recently – we‘re undergoing another microrotation into value stocks. The stock market leadership is thus broadening, confirming the findings from the advance-decline line (and advance-decline volume) examination.Credit MarketsOne chart to illustrate the bond market pressures – high yield corporate bonds are holding gained ground while investment grade corporate bonds and long-dated Treasuries are plunging like there is no tomorrow. With each of their rebound attempt sold, the dislocations are increasing – a great testament to the euphoric stage of the stock market advance. Gold and TreasuriesGold price action isn‘t as bearish as it might seem based on last week‘s moves. Yes, the readiness to decline in sympathy with rising yields, is diconcerting, but the yellow metal stopped practically at the late Nov lows, and refused to decline further. Low prices attracted buying interest, and due to the overwhelmingly negative sentiment for the week ahead, the yellow metal may surprise on the upside. Time for the bulls to prove themselves as the tone of coming weeks‘ trading in gold is in the balance.The daily chart‘s correlation coefficient has moved into strongly positive territory in 2021, illustrating the headwinds gold faces. Despite the prevailing wisdom, such strongly positive correlation isn‘t the rule over extended periods of time. That‘s the message of the daily chart – but let‘s step back and see the bigger picture similarly to the way I did on Friday witht the $HUI:$GOLD ratio.Not an encouraging sight at the moment. The tightness of mutual relationship is there, and given the decreased focus on timing (one candle representing one week) coupled with the correlation coefficient being calculated again over a 20 period sample, the week just over shows that regardless of the post-Nov resilience, gold is clearly getting under more pressure.Gold and DollarLet‘s do the same what I did about long-term Treasuries and gold, also about the dollar and gold. Their historically negative correlation is receding at the moment as the two face their own challenges. The key question is when and from what level would the fiat currency and its nemesis return to trading in the opposite directions. Such a time is highly likely to be conducive to higher gold prices.On the weekly chart, the negative correlation periods are winning out in length and frequency. Certainly given the less sensitive timining component through weekly candlesticks and 20-period calculation, the current strength and level of positive correlation is rather an exception and not a rule. Combining this chart‘s positive correlation between the two with the daily chart‘s negative yet rising readings, highlights in my view a potential for seeing an upset in the momentary relationship.In other words, the gold decline over the past now almost 7 months going hand in hand with mostly sliding dollar, would turn into higher gold prices accompanied by lower dollar values. How much higher gold prices, that depends on the long-term Treasuries market – that‘s the one playing the decisive role, not the dollar at the moment.Gold, Silver and MinersSilver is doing fine, platinum very well, while gold struggles and needs to prove itself. That‘s the essence of the long silver short gold trade idea – the silver to gold ratio attests to that.Quoting from Friday‘s analysis:(…) The dynamics favoring silver are unquestionable – starting from varied and growing industrial applications, strengthening manufacturing and economy recovery, poor outlook in silver above ground stockpile and recycling, to the white metal being also a monetary metal. Silver is bound to score better gains than gold, marred by the Bitcoin allure, would. Final chart of today‘s extensive analysis is about the two miners to gold ratios, and the divergencies they show. The ETF-based one (GDX:GLD) is sitting at support marked by both the late Nov and late Jan lows, while $HUI:$GOLD is probing to break below its late Jan lows, and these were already lower than the respective late Nov lows.Both ratios are sending a mixed picture, in line with the theme of my latest reports – gold is on razor‘s edge, and the technical picture is mixed given its latest weakness. That‘s the short run – I expect that once the Fed‘s hand is twisted enough in TLT and TLH, and speculation on yield curve control initiation rises, the focus in the precious metals would shift to inflation and its dynamics I‘ve described both on Wed and Fri. SummaryThe sellers in stocks aren‘t getting far these days, and signals remain aligned behind the S&P 500 advance to reassert itself. Neither the Russell 2000, nor emerging markets are flashing divergencies, and the path of least resistance in stocks remains higher.Gold‘s short-term conundrum continues - positive fundamentals that are going to turn even more so in the near future, yet the key charts show the king of metals under pressure, with long-term Treasury yields arguably holding the key to gold‘s short-term future. The decoupling events seen earlier this month, got a harsh reality check in the week just over. Yet, that‘s not a knock-out blow – the medium- and long-term outlook remains bright, and too many market players have rushed to the short side in the short run too.

What a day that was. What started off looking like a sea of red not seen in months ended with the Dow and S&P in the green.It was an overdue plummet- at least that’s what I thought at the start of the day. The Dow was down 360 points at one point, and the Nasdaq was down 3%.But by the end of the day, Jay Powell played the role of Fed Chair and investor therapist and eased the fears of the masses.The Dow closed up, the S&P snapped a 5-day losing streak, and the Nasdaq only closed down a half of a percent!You really can’t make this up.The day started gloomily with more fears from rising bond yields.Sure, the rising bonds signal a return to normal. But they also signal inflation and rate hikes from the Fed.But Powell said “not so fast” and eased market fears.“Once we get this pandemic under control, we could be getting through this much more quickly than we had feared, and that would be terrific, but the job is not done,” Powell said .He also alluded to the Fed maintaining its commitment to buy at least $120 billion a month in U.S. Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities until “substantial further progress is made with the recovery.While the slowdown (I’d stop short of calling it a “downturn”) we’ve seen lately, namely with the Nasdaq, poses some desirable buying opportunities, there still could be some short-term pressure on stocks. That correction I’ve been calling for weeks may have potentially started, despite the sharp reversal we saw today.Yes, we may see more green this week. But while I don’t foresee a crash like we saw last March and feel that the wheels are in motion for a healthy 2021, I still maintain that some correction before the end of Q1 could happen.Bank of America also echoed this statement and said, “We expect a buyable 5-10% Q1 correction as the big ‘unknowns’ coincide with exuberant positioning, record equity supply, and as good as it gets’ earnings revisions.”With more earnings on tap for this week with Nvidia (NVDA) on Wednesday (Feb. 24) and Virgin Galactic (SPCE) and Moderna (MRNA) on Thursday (Feb. 25), buckle up.The rest of this week could get very interesting.Look. Don’t panic. We have a very market-friendly monetary policy, and corrections are more common than most realize. Corrections are also healthy and normal market behavior, and we are long overdue for one. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017), and we haven’t seen one in a year.A correction could also be an excellent buying opportunity for what could be a great second half of the year.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one to help people who needed help instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and the end of Q1 2021 is possible. I don’t think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market, will happen.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck. Nasdaq- To Buy or Not to Buy?Figure 1- Nasdaq Composite Index $COMPWhat a difference a few weeks can make!Before, I was talking about the Nasdaq’s RSI and to watch out if it exceeds 70.Now? As tracked by the Invesco QQQ ETF , the Nasdaq has plummeted by 4.5% since February 12 and is trending towards oversold levels! I hate to say I’m excited about this recent decline, but I am. This has been long overdue, and I’m sort of disappointed it didn’t end the day lower.Now THAT would’ve been a legit buying opportunity.While rising bond yields are concerning for high-flying tech stocks, I, along with much of the investing world, was somewhat comforted by Chairman Powell’s testimony. Inflation and rate hikes are definitely a long-term concern, but for now, if their inflation target isn’t met, who’s to fight the Fed?Outside of the Russell 2000, the Nasdaq has been consistently the most overheated index. But after today, I feel more confident in the Nasdaq as a SHORT-TERM BUY.But remember. The RSI is king for the Nasdaq . If it pops over 70 again, that makes it a SELL in my book.Why?Because the Nasdaq is trading in a precise pattern.In the past few months, when the Nasdaq has exceeded 70, it has consistently sold off.December 9- exceeded an RSI of 70 and briefly pulled back.January 4- exceeded a 70 RSI just before the new year and declined 1.47%.January 11- declined by 1.45% after exceeding a 70 RSI.Week of January 25- exceeded an RSI of over 73 before the week and declined 4.13% for the week.I like that the Nasdaq is below the 13500-level, and especially that it’s below its 50-day moving average now. I also remain bullish on tech, especially for sub-sectors such as cloud computing, e-commerce, and fintech.But the pullback hasn’t been enough.Because of the Nasdaq’s precise trading pattern and its recent decline, I am making this a SHORT-TERM BUY. But follow the RSI literally.For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the NASDAQ, the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) is a good option.For more of my thoughts on the market, such as the streaky S&P, inflation, and emerging market opportunities, sign up for my premium analysis today.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Surging bond yields continues to weigh on tech stocks. When the 10-year yield pops by 20 basis points to reach a 1-year high, that will happen.Tuesday (Feb. 23) saw the Dow down 360 points at one point, and the Nasdaq down 3% before a sharp reversal that carried to Wednesday (Feb. 24).Thursday (Feb. 25) was a different story and long overdue.Overall, the market saw a broad sell-off with the Dow down over 550 points, the S&P falling 2.45%, the Nasdaq tanking over 3.50%, and seeing its worst day since October, and the small-cap Russell 2000 shedding 3.70%.Rising bond yields are a blessing and a curse. On the one hand, bond investors see the economy reopening and heating up. On the other hand, with the Fed expected to let the GDP heat up without hiking rates, say welcome back to inflation.I don’t care what Chairman Powell says about inflation targets this and that. He can’t expect to keep rates this low, buy bonds, permit money to be printed without a care, and have the economy not overheat.He may not have a choice but to hike rates sooner than expected. If not this year, then in 2022. I no longer buy all that talk about keeping rates at 0% through 2023. It just can’t happen if bond yields keep popping like this.This slowdown, namely with the Nasdaq, poses some desirable buying opportunities. The QQQ ETF, which tracks the Nasdaq is down a reasonably attractive 7% since February 12. But there still could be some short-term pressure on stocks.That correction I’ve been calling for weeks? It may have potentially started, especially for tech. While I don’t foresee a crash like we saw last March and feel that the wheels are in motion for a healthy 2021, I still maintain that some correction before the end of March could happen.I mean, we’re already about 3% away from an actual correction in the Nasdaq...Bank of America also echoed this statement and said, “We expect a buyable 5-10% Q1 correction as the big ‘unknowns’ coincide with exuberant positioning, record equity supply, and as good as it gets’ earnings revisions.”Look. This has been a rough week. But don’t panic, and look for opportunities. We have a very market-friendly monetary policy, and corrections are more common than most realize.Corrections are also healthy and normal market behavior, and we are long overdue for one. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017), and we haven’t seen one in a year.A correction could also be an excellent buying opportunity for what could be a great second half of the year.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one to help people who needed help instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and the end of Q1 2021 is possible. I don’t think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market, will happen.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck. Nasdaq- To Buy or Not to Buy?Figure 1- Nasdaq Composite Index $COMPThis downturn is so overdue. More pain could be on the horizon, but this road towards a correction was needed for the Nasdaq.Before February 12, I would always discuss the Nasdaq’s RSI and recommend watching out if it exceeds 70.Now? As tracked by the Invesco QQQ ETF , the Nasdaq has plummeted by nearly 7% since February 12 and is trending towards oversold levels! I hate to say I’m excited about this recent decline, but I am.While rising bond yields are concerning for high-flying tech stocks, I, along with much of the investing world, was somewhat comforted by Chairman Powell’s testimony the other day (even if I don’t totally buy into it). Inflation and rate hikes are definitely a long-term concern, but for now, if their inflation target isn’t met, who’s to fight the Fed?Outside of the Russell 2000, the Nasdaq has been consistently the most overheated index. But after its recent slowdown, I feel more confident in the Nasdaq as a SHORT-TERM BUY.The RSI is king for the Nasdaq . Its RSI is now under 40, which makes it borderline oversold.I follow the RSI for the Nasdaq religiously because the index is simply trading in a precise pattern.In the past few months, when the Nasdaq has exceeded an overbought 70 RSI, it has consistently sold off.December 9- exceeded an RSI of 70 and briefly pulled back.January 4- exceeded a 70 RSI just before the new year and declined 1.47%.January 11- declined by 1.45% after exceeding a 70 RSI.Week of January 25- exceeded an RSI of over 73 before the week and declined 4.13% for the week.I like that the Nasdaq is almost the 13100-level, and especially that it’s below its 50-day moving average now.I also remain bullish on tech, especially for sub-sectors such as cloud computing, e-commerce, and fintech.Because of the Nasdaq’s precise trading pattern and its recent decline, I am making this a SHORT-TERM BUY. But follow the RSI literally.For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the NASDAQ, the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) is a good option.For more of my thoughts on the market, such as the streaky S&P, inflation, and emerging market opportunities, sign up for my premium analysis today.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Is the worst of what the last few weeks brought over? February started off with so much promise, only to be ruined by surging bond yields.The way that bond yields have popped has weighed heavily on growth stocks. Outside of seeing a minor comeback on Friday (Feb. 26), the Nasdaq dropped almost 7% between February 12 and Friday’s (Feb. 26) close.Other indices didn’t fare much better either.The spike bond yields, however, in my view, are nothing more than a catalyst for stocks to cool off and an indicator of some medium to long-term concerns. But calling them a structural threat is a bit of an overstatement.Rising bond yields are a blessing and a curse. On the one hand, bond investors see the economy reopening and heating up. On the other hand, with the Fed expected to let the GDP heat up without hiking rates, inflation may return.I don’t care what Chairman Powell says about inflation targets this and that. He can’t expect to keep rates this low, buy bonds, permit money to be printed without a care, and have the economy not overheat.He may not have a choice but to hike rates sooner than expected. If not this year, then in 2022. I no longer buy all that talk about keeping rates at 0% through 2023. It just can’t happen if bond yields keep popping like this.So was the second half of February the start of the correction that I’ve been calling for? Or is this “downturn” already over?Time will tell. While I still do not foresee a crash like we saw last March and feel that the wheels are in motion for a healthy 2021, I still maintain that some correction before the end of this month could happen.Corrections are also healthy and normal market behavior, and we are long overdue for one. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017), and we haven’t seen one in almost a year.A correction could also be an excellent buying opportunity for what could be a great second half of the year.Pay attention to several things this week. The PMI composite, jobs data, and consumer credit levels will be announced this week.We have more earnings on tap this week too. Monday (March 1), we have Nio (NIO) and Zoom (ZM), Tuesday (March 2) we have Target (TGT) and Sea Limited (SE), Wednesday (March 3), we have Okta (OKTA) and Snowflake (SNOW), and Thursday (March 3) we haveBroadcom (AVGO).My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one to help people who needed help instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, to sum it up:The downturn we experienced to close out February could be the start of a short-term correction- or it may be a brief slowdown. A further downturn by the end of the month is very possible, but I don’t think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market, will happen.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck. Nasdaq- a Buyable Slowdown?Figure 1- Nasdaq Composite Index $COMPThe Nasdaq’s downturn was so overdue. Even though more pain could be on the horizon, I like the Nasdaq at this level for some buying opportunities.If more losses come and the tech-heavy index dips below support at 13000, then it could be an even better buying opportunity. It can’t hurt to start nibbling now, though. If you waited for that perfect moment to start buying a year ago when it looked like the world was ending, you wouldn’t have gained as much as you could have.Plus, if Cathie Wood, the guru of the ARK ETFs that have continuously outperformed, did a lot of buying the last two weeks, it’s safe to say she knows a thing or two about tech stocks and when to initiate positions. Bloomberg News ’ editor-in-chief emeritus Matthew A. Winkler wouldn’t have just named anyone the best stock picker of 2020.Before February 12, I would always discuss the Nasdaq’s RSI and recommend watching out if it exceeds 70.Now? As tracked by the Invesco QQQ ETF , the Nasdaq has plummeted almost 7% since February 12 and is closer to oversold than overbought. !While rising bond yields are concerning for high-flying tech stocks, I, along with much of the investing world, was somewhat comforted by Chairman Powell’s testimony last week (even if I don’t totally buy into it). Inflation and rate hikes are definitely a long-term concern, but for now, if their inflation target isn’t met, who’s to fight the Fed?Outside of the Russell 2000, the Nasdaq has been consistently the most overheated index. But after its recent slowdown, I feel more confident in the Nasdaq as a SHORT-TERM BUY.The RSI is king for the Nasdaq . Its RSI is now around 40.I follow the RSI for the Nasdaq religiously because the index is merely trading in a precise pattern.In the past few months, when the Nasdaq has exceeded an overbought 70 RSI, it has consistently sold off.December 9- exceeded an RSI of 70 and briefly pulled back.January 4- exceeded a 70 RSI just before the new year and declined 1.47%.January 11- declined by 1.45% after exceeding a 70 RSI.Week of January 25- exceeded an RSI of over 73 before the week and declined 4.13% for the week.I like that the Nasdaq is almost at its support level of 13000, and especially that it’s below its 50-day moving average now.I also remain bullish on tech, especially for sub-sectors such as cloud computing, e-commerce, and fintech.Because of the Nasdaq’s precise trading pattern and its recent decline, I am making this a SHORT-TERM BUY. But follow the RSI literally.For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the NASDAQ, the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) is a good option.For more of my thoughts on the market, such as the streaky S&P, inflation, and emerging market opportunities, sign up for my premium analysis today.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

After March kicked off with a session that indicated the worst for stocks may be over (for now), Tuesday saw the indices sell-off towards the close.At least Rocket Mortgage (RKT) had a good day, though! And, at least the 10-year yield didn’t spike either. But that could change. Yields ticked up overnight to 1.433%, after President Biden pledged enough vaccine supply to inoculate every American adult by the end of May.So, where do we go from here? This positive economic and health news is excellent for reopening. But rising bond yields are a blessing and a curse. On the one hand, bond investors see the economy reopening and heating up. On the other hand, with the Fed expected to let the GDP scorch without hiking rates, inflation may return.I don’t care what Chairman Powell says about inflation targets this and that. The price of gas and food is increasing already. In fact, according to Bloomberg, food prices are soaring faster than inflation and incomes.For January, Consumer Price Index data also found that the cost of food eaten at home rose 3.7 percent from a year ago — more than double the 1.4 percent year-over-year increase in the prices of all goods included in the CPI.Can you imagine what this was like for February? Can you imagine what it will be like for March? I’m not trying to sound the alarm - but be very aware. These are just the early warning signs.So about March. Will it be more like Monday or Tuesday? Was the second half of February the start of the correction that I’ve been calling for? Or is the “downturn” already over? Only time will tell. While I still do not foresee a crash like we saw last March and feel that the wheels are in motion for a healthy 2021, I still maintain that some correction before the end of this month could happen.Rising bond yields are concerning. Inflation signs are there. But structurally, I don’t think it will crash the market (yet).Corrections are also healthy and normal market behavior, and we are long overdue for one. It’s been almost a year now. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017).A correction could also be an excellent buying opportunity for what could be a great second half of the year.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one to help people who needed help instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, to sum it up:There is optimism but signs of concern. A further downturn by the end of the month is very possible, but I don’t think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market, will happen.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck. Nasdaq- a Buyable Slowdown?Figure 1- Nasdaq Composite Index $COMPThe Nasdaq’s slowdown has been long overdue. Even though more pain could be on the horizon, I like the Nasdaq at this level for some buying opportunities.But I’d prefer it drop below support at 13000 for real buying opportunities.But it can’t hurt to start nibbling now. If you waited for that perfect moment to start buying a year ago when it looked like the world was ending, you wouldn’t have gained as much as you could have.Plus, it’s safe to say that Cathie Wood, the guru of the ARK ETFs, is the best growth stock picker of our generation. Bloomberg News ’ editor-in-chief emeritus Matthew A. Winkler seems to think so too. Her ETFs, which have continuously outperformed, focus on the most innovative and disruptive tech companies out there. Not to put a lot of stock in one person. But it’s safe to say she knows a thing or two about tech stocks and when to initiate positions- and she did a lot of buying the last few weeks.I also remain bullish on tech, especially for sub-sectors such as cloud computing, e-commerce, and fintech.Before February 12, I would always discuss the Nasdaq’s RSI and recommend watching out if it exceeds 70.Now? As tracked by the Invesco QQQ ETF , the Nasdaq has plummeted almost 5.5% since February 12 and is closer to oversold than overbought!But it’s still not enough.Outside of the Russell 2000, the Nasdaq has been consistently the most overheated index. But after its recent slowdown, I feel more confident in the Nasdaq as a SHORT-TERM BUY.The RSI is king for the Nasdaq . Its RSI is now around 45.I follow the RSI for the Nasdaq religiously because the index is merely trading in a precise pattern.In the past few months, when the Nasdaq has exceeded an overbought 70 RSI, it has consistently sold off.December 9- exceeded an RSI of 70 and briefly pulled back.January 4- exceeded a 70 RSI just before the new year and declined 1.47%.January 11- declined by 1.45% after exceeding a 70 RSI.Week of January 25- exceeded an RSI of over 73 before the week and declined 4.13% for the week.Again- if the index drops below 13000, and the RSI hits undeniably overbought levels, get on the train.But because we haven’t declined just enough, I am making this a SHORT-TERM BUY. But follow the RSI literally and take profits once you have the chance to.For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the NASDAQ, the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) is a good option.For more of my thoughts on the market, such as the streaky S&P, inflation, and emerging market opportunities, sign up for my premium analysis today.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

The theme of last week was primarily the same as the previous few weeks- rising bond yields and inflation fears caused stocks to crumble.Look, it's not the fact that bond yields are rising that are freaking out investors. Bond yields are still at a historically low level, and the Fed Funds Rate remains 0%. But it's the speed at which they've risen that are terrifying people. So far this year, the 10-year yield has soared 72%Fed Chair Jay Powell's statement that inflation could "temporarily return" did not help matters much last week either. However, despite the fears, the indices really did not perform all that badly the previous week after a Friday (Mar. 5) reversal. The Dow Jones managed to gain 1.8%, the S&P eked out a 0.8% gain, and after briefly touching correction territory and giving up its gains for the year, the Nasdaq managed to decline only -2.1%.So what's on tap for this week? Is the downturn overblown and already over?This is a massive week for market sentiment. The Senate, first and foremost, passed President Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus plan over the weekend. On the one hand, stocks could pop from this. On the other hand, this makes inflation a foregone conclusion. Remember this, too- when the market gets what it expects, it's usually a sell signal rather than a buy signal. Markets look forward. Not to the past, and not to the present.Important data being released this week also includes inflation data, initial claims, and consumer sentiment.Time will tell where we go from here. While I still do not foresee a crash like we saw last March and feel that the wheels remain in motion for a healthy 2021, inflation is a genuine concern and could be here already.According to Bloomberg , the price of gas and food already appear to be getting a head start on inflation. For January, Consumer Price Index data also found that the cost of food eaten at home rose 3.7 percent from a year ago — more than double the 1.4 percent year-over-year increase in all goods included in the CPI.This could only be the start too. In its 2021 outlook report, the Economic Research Service for the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast the food cost from grocery stores to rise 1 to 2% this year.Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi also believes that Wall Street is significantly underestimating inflation's seriousness and warns it could affect every sector in the market — from growth to cyclicals."Inflationary pressures will develop very quickly," he said. "I don't think there's any shelter here."I'm not trying to sound the alarm- but be very aware. These are just the early warning signs.I still feel that a correction of some sort is imminent. The Nasdaq touched it briefly last week and is still about 2% away from one. Other indices could possibly follow. But don't fret. Corrections are healthy and normal market behavior, and we have been long overdue for one. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017).Most importantly, this correction could be an excellent buying opportunity.It can be a very tricky time for investors right now. But never, ever, trade with emotion. Buy low, sell high, and be a little bit contrarian. There could be some more short-term pain, yes. But if you sat out last March when others bought, you are probably very disappointed in yourself. Be cautious, but be a little bold too.There's always a bull market somewhere, and valuations, while still somewhat frothy, are at much more buyable levels now.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one to help people who needed help instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, to sum it up:There is optimism but signs of concern. A further downturn by the end of the month is very possible, but I don't think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market, will happen.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck. Nasdaq- Buyable but Beware of the RisksFigure 1- Nasdaq Composite Index $COMPThe Nasdaq is no longer in correction territory, nor is it negative for 2021 any longer. But beware- this could change very quickly. More pain could be on the horizon until we get some clarity on this bond market and inflation. However, this Nasdaq downturn is long overdue and starting to be buyable.If you bought at the bottom on Friday before the afternoon reversal and made some quick gains, good on you. It actually didn’t end up being THAT bad of a week for the Nasdaq after Friday’s (Mar. 5) reversal.Be that as it may, Friday’s (Mar. 5) reversal does not mean we’re out of the woods. According to Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson , “10-year yields finally caught up to other asset markets. This is putting pressure on valuations, especially for the most expensive stocks that had reached nosebleed valuations.”Expensive stocks? Nosebleed valuations? Sounds like tech to me.Wilson also said that once valuation correction and repositioning are finished, then growth stocks can potentially “rejoin the party.”The Nasdaq is now mostly flat for the year, its RSI is closer to oversold than overbought, and we’re at almost a 2-month low.It can’t hurt to start nibbling now. There could be some more short-term pain, but if you waited for that perfect moment to start buying a year ago when it looked like the world was ending, you wouldn’t have gained as much as you could have.I think the key here is to “selectively buy.” I remain bullish on tech, especially for sub-sectors such as cloud computing, e-commerce, and fintech.I also think it’s an outstanding buying opportunity for big tech companies with proven businesses and solid balance sheets. Take Apple (AAPL), for example. It’s about 15% off its January 26th highs. That is what I call discount shopping.I like the levels we’re at, and despite the possibility of more losses in the short-run, it’s a good time to start to BUY. But just be mindful of the RSI, and don’t buy risky assets. Find emerging tech sectors or high-quality companies trading at a discount.For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the NASDAQ, the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) is a good option.For more of my thoughts on the market, such as when small-caps will be buyable, more thoughts on inflation, and emerging market opportunities, sign up for my premium analysis today.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Days like Tuesday (Mar. 9) are why you buy the dips. It was nothing short of a reverse rotation from what we’ve seen as of late. Bond yields moved lower; tech stocks popped.That’s why I called BUY on the Nasdaq.Inflation fears and the acceleration of bond yields are still a concern. But it looks as if things are stabilizing, at least for one day. The lesson here, though, is to be bold, a little contrarian, and block out the noise.Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know that recent sessions have been characterized by accelerating bond yields driving a rotation out of high growth tech stocks into value and cyclical stocks that would benefit the most from an economic recovery. The Nasdaq touched correction territory twice in the last week and gave up its gains for the year.But imagine if you bought the dip as I recommended.The Nasdaq on Tuesday (Mar. 9) popped 3.7% for its best day since November. Cathie Wood’s Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) surged more than 10% for its best day ever after tanking by over 30%. Semiconductors also rallied 6%.Other tech/growth names had themselves a day too: Tesla (TSLA) +20%, Nvidia (NVDA) +8%, Adobe (ADBE) +4.3%, Amazon +3.8%, Apple (AAPL) +4.1%, and Facebook (FB) +4.1%.In keeping with the theme of buying the dip, do you also know what happened a year ago yesterday to the date? The Dow tanked 7.8%!There’s no way to time the market correctly. If you bought the Dow mirroring SPDR DJIA ETF (DIA) last March 9, you’d have still seen two weeks of pain until the bottom. However, you’d have also seen a gain of almost 36% if you bought that dip and held on until now.Look, I get there are concerns and fears right now. The speed at which bond yields have risen is concerning, and the fact that another $1.9 trillion is about to be pumped into a reopening economy makes inflation a foregone conclusion. But let’s have a little perspective here.Bond yields are still at a historically low level, and the Fed Funds Rate remains 0%.So is the downturn overblown and already finished?Time will tell. I think that we could still see some volatile movements over the next few weeks as bond yields stabilize and the market figures itself out. While I maintain that I do not foresee a crash like what we saw last March and feel that the wheels remain in motion for an excellent 2021, Mr. Market has to figure itself out.A correction of some sort is still very possible. I mean, the Nasdaq’s already hit correction territory twice in the last week and is still about 3-4% away from returning to one. But don’t fret. Corrections are healthy and normal market behavior. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017).Most importantly, a correction right now would be an excellent buying opportunity. Just look at the Nasdaq Tuesday (Mar. 9).It can be a very tricky time for investors right now. But never, ever, trade with emotion. Buy low, sell high, and be a little bit contrarian. There could be some more short-term pain, yes. But if you sat out last March when others bought, you are probably very disappointed in yourself. Be cautious, but be a little bold too.You can never time the market.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one to help people who needed help instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, to sum it up:There is optimism but signs of concern. The market has to figure itself out. A further downturn is possible, but I don’t think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market, will happen any time soon.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck. Nasdaq- That’s Why I Called BUYFigure 1- Nasdaq Composite Index $COMPFor the second time in a week, the Nasdaq hit correction territory and rocketed out of it. It saw its best day since November and proved once again that with the Nasdaq, you always follow the RSI. There could be more uncertainty over the next few weeks as both the bond market and equity market figure themselves out. However, the Nasdaq declines were very buyable, as I predicted.If you bought the dip before Tuesday’s (Mar. 9) session, good on you. Be a little bit bold and fearless right now. Take Ark Funds guru Cathie Wood, for example. Many old school investors scoffed at her comments on Monday (Mar. 8) after she practically doubled down on her bullishness for her funds and the market as a whole. After crushing 2020, her Ark Innovation Fund (ARKK) tanked over 30%. Many called her the face of a bubble. Many laughed at her.Tuesday, March 9, ARKK saw its best day in history.I’m not saying that we’re out of the woods with tech. All I’m saying is don’t try to time the market, don’t get scared and have perspective.The Nasdaq is once again roughly flat for the year, its RSI is closer to oversold than overbought, and we’re still below the 50-day moving average, near a 2-month low, and right around support at 13000.It can’t hurt to start nibbling now. There could be some more short-term pain, but if you waited for that perfect moment to start buying a year ago when it looked like the world was ending, you wouldn’t have gained as much as you could have.I think the key here is to “selectively buy.” I remain bullish on tech, especially for sub-sectors such as cloud computing, e-commerce, and fintech.Mike Wilson , chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley, had this to say about recent tech slides- “I don’t think this is the end of the bull market or the end of tech stocks per se, but it was an adjustment that was very necessary.”I like the levels we’re at, and despite the possibility of more “adjustments” in the short-run, it’s a good time to BUY. But just be mindful of the RSI, and don’t buy risky assets. Find emerging tech sectors or high-quality companies trading at a discount.For an ETF that attempts to correlate with the performance of the NASDAQ directly, the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) is a good option.For more of my thoughts on the market, such as when small-caps will be buyable, more thoughts on inflation, and emerging market opportunities, sign up for my premium analysis today.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Records were made to be broken. Thursday's (Mar. 11) session was the embodiment of that.Every index closed in positive territory, and the Dow, S&P, and Russell all closed at record highs. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq led the way again with a 2.52% gain. After touching correction territory two times in the last week, the Nasdaq is up over 6.3% for the week. This is why you buy the dips, and why I said the second, the Nasdaq drops below 13000 support that you should buy.Be bold, a little contrarian, block out the noise, and never try to time the market. Sure, when you buy a dip during uncertain times, you run the risk of encountering more pain. However, in the long-term, stocks trend upwards.For example, do you also know what happened precisely a year ago, on March 11, 2020? The headline on CNBC read like so: Dow plunges 10% amid coronavirus fears for its worst day since the 1987 market. See for yourself.You know what else happened? The market didn't bottom for another 2 weeks and declined another 21%.However, if you bought the Dow-tracking DIA ETF on March 11 and held it this entire time, you'd have gained 40.51%.Imagine if you bought the dip as I recommended for tech.I cautiously said to BUY the QQQ ETF, which tracks the Nasdaq, on February 24 but recommended doing it cautiously and selectively. I doubled down once it dropped below support at 13000 and tripled down once the Nasdaq hovered around 12600 on Monday (Mar. 8).As I said before, the Nasdaq is up over 6.3% this week. If you followed my lead on this, you'd be pleased.Inflation fears and the acceleration of bond yields are still a concern. But let's have a little perspective here. It appears as if things have stabilized for now. Bond yields are still at a historically low level, and the Fed Funds Rate remains 0%. Plus, jobless claims beat estimates again and came in at 712,000. This is nearly the lowest they've been in a whole year.We will see how President Biden's newly signed $1.9 trillion stimulus package affects yields and inflation. But for now, with the Fed showing no signs of hiking rates shortly and inflation looking tamer than expected, we could see more firepower for stocks.So is the downturn overblown and already finished?Time will tell. I think that we could still see some volatile movements and consolidation to close the week out. That's just what happens with surges and swings like this. While I maintain that I do not foresee a crash like what we saw last March and feel that the wheels remain in motion for an excellent 2021, Mr. Market still has to figure itself out.A broad-based correction of some sort is still very possible. I mean, the Nasdaq's already hit correction territory twice in the last week. Corrections are healthy and normal market behavior. Only twice in the previous 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017).Most importantly, a correction right now would be an excellent buying opportunity. Once again- look at the Nasdaq since March 8.It can be a very tricky time for investors right now. But never, ever, trade with emotion. There could be some more short-term pain, yes. But if you sat out last March when others bought, you are probably very disappointed in yourself.You can never time the market.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one to help people who needed help instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, to sum it up:There is optimism but signs of concern. The market has to figure itself out. A further downturn is possible, but I don't think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market, will happen any time soon.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck. Nasdaq- That’s Why I Called BUYFigure 1- Nasdaq Composite Index $COMPCan I flex again, please?Flexing.The Nasdaq's performance this week is why I called BUY despite hitting two corrections in the last week. On Tuesday (Mar. 9), the Nasdaq saw its best day since November. The index's gains continued after that and is now sitting pretty up over 6.3% for the week.If you bought the dip, good on you. It's an excellent time to be a little bit bold and fearless. Take Ark Funds guru Cathie Wood, for example. Many old school investors scoffed at her comments on Monday (Mar. 8) after she practically doubled down on her bullishness for her funds and the market as a whole. After crushing 2020, her Ark Innovation Fund (ARKK) tanked over 30%. Many called her the face of a bubble. Many laughed at her. Tuesday, March 9, ARKK saw its best day in history. Week-to-date, ARKK is up a staggering 16.71%.I'm not saying that we're out of the woods with tech. But I am saying not to try and time the market, not get scared, and have some perspective.The Nasdaq is once again positive for the year, but unfortunately, I no longer think we're at a BUY level. We could see some consolidation and profit-taking to end the week. Still, if we see a significant drop, especially below 13000, it could be a good buy again. It can't hurt to keep nibbling- we're still off the highs. I'm going to stick with the theme of "selectively buying" sub-sectors such as cloud computing, e-commerce, and fintech.I think you should now HOLD and let the RSI guide your Nasdaq decisions. See what happens over subsequent sessions, research emerging tech sectors, and high-quality companies, and buy that next dip.For an ETF that attempts to correlate with the performance of the NASDAQ directly, the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) is a good option.For more of my thoughts on the market, such as when small-caps will be buyable, inflation, and emerging market opportunities, sign up for my premium analysis today.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

March Madness started on Thursday (Mar. 18), but stocks got the jump on their own brackets this week. Let’s dive in.Although Wednesday (Mar. 17) saw the indices have a nice St. Patrick’s day green reversal thanks to Jay Powell babying us on inflation thoughts again, Mr. Market isn't stupid. Manic, but not stupid. We saw a return to the strong rotation trend out of growth stocks the day after Powell's testimony (Mar. 18).Thursday (Mar. 18) saw bond yields surge to their highest levels in what seems like forever. The 10-year yield popped 11 basis points to 1.75% for the first time since January 2020, while the 30-year rate climbed 6 basis points and breached 2.5% for the first time since August 2019.Predictably, the Nasdaq tanked by over 3% for its worst session in 3-weeks.Jay Powell and bond yields are the most significant market movers in the game now. Get ready for the market next week when he testifies to Congress. That'll be a beauty. What's coronavirus anymore?So after what's been a relatively tame week for the indices, we can officially say bye-bye to that.Bond yields, though, are still at historically low levels, and the Fed Funds Rate remains at 0%. With the Fed forecasting a successful economic recovery this year, with GDP growth of around 6.5% -- the fastest in nearly four decades -- the wheels could be in motion for another round of the Roaring '20s.The problem, though, is that the Great Depression came right after the first Roaring '20s.Many are sounding the alarm. However, like CNBC's Jim Cramer, others think the current headwinds are overblown, and a mirror of the 2015-2016 downturn is based on similar catalysts.Figure 1: Jim Cramer TwitterCramer argued that Powell is a talented central banker willing to "let the economy continue to gain strength so that everyone has a chance to do well."Nobody can predict the future, and these growth stock jitters from rising bond yields may be overblown. But for now, it's probably best to let the market figure itself out and be mindful of the headwinds.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one to help people who needed help instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, to sum it up:There is optimism but signs of concern. The market has to figure itself out. A further downturn is possible, but I don’t think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market, will happen any time soon.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck. Nasdaq- Another Buyable Dip?Figure 2- Nasdaq Composite Index $COMPThe last time I switched my Nasdaq call to a BUY on Feb 24 , that worked out very well. I will use the same criteria again for the Nasdaq as the market figures out bond yields: The RSI and the 13000 support level. I need the Nasdaq’s RSI to dip below 40 while also falling below 13000 before buying.We’re not quite there. This is an excellent dip, but it’s really only one down day and its worst down day in weeks. I think we may have some more buying opportunities next week if bond yields pop due to Jay Powell’s testimony. I mean, it seemingly always happens after he speaks.Pay very close attention to the index and its swings.If the tech sector takes another big dip, don’t get scared, don’t time the market, monitor the trends I mentioned and look for selective buying opportunities. If we hit my buying criteria, selectively look into high-quality companies and emerging disruptive sub-sectors such as cloud computing, e-commerce, and fintech.HOLD, and let the RSI and 13000-support level guide your Nasdaq decisions. See what happens over subsequent sessions, research emerging tech sectors and high-quality companies, and consider buying that next big dip.For an ETF that attempts to correlate with the performance of the NASDAQ directly, the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) is a good option.For more of my thoughts on the market, such as a potentially overbought Dow Jones, small-caps, inflation, and emerging market opportunities, sign up for my premium analysis today.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

NAS 100 bounces off trendlineThe Nasdaq index whipsaws as investors fear that the economic recovery may stall.Sentiment remains upbeat as the composite rebounds from a seven-week-long rising trendline. This congestion area includes the former resistance at 14560 which has turned into key support.Trend followers were quick to see the oversold RSI as an opportunity to double down on the bullish bandwagon.14830 has now become a hurdle and a bullish breakout could lead the index to the historic high at 15000.USDCHF falls from daily resistanceThe Swiss franc shot up as markets grew weary of the Delta variant spread. Whereas, the US dollar has stumbled on the supply area around 0.9275 from the daily timeframe.Last Friday’s attempts below 0.9200 have shown weakness in the upward impetus. Following a feeble rebound, the dollar’s clean-cut through said support confirms the bearish turn. An oversold RSI may cause a limited rebound.Once below 0.9140, the greenback could be vulnerable to an extended sell-off towards 0.9080.EURJPY slips below psychological supportThe Japanese yen rallies amid surging demand for safe-haven currencies.The break below the psychological level of 130.00 has invalidated the rebound in late June. Sellers are still in control of the action after the bearish MA cross.The euro is now hovering near the critical support (129.60) on the daily chart. A bearish breakout could push the pair towards 128.90.In the meantime, an oversold RSI may prompt early bulls to test the water. The base of the latest sell-off at 131.00 is a major resistance ahead.

AUDUSD drops along moving averageThe Australian dollar remains underwater as the RBA minutes say no to a rate hike before 2024.The sell-off has accelerated after the Aussie fell through 0.7410, the last stronghold from a previous bounce. The pair is sliding along the 20-day moving average, and the downtrend is heading towards the next support at 0.7230 from the daily chart.However, a repeatedly oversold RSI may prompt sellers to take some chips off the table, causing a temporary rebound. 0.7440 is likely to cap the buyers’ push.USDCAD breaks above major resistanceThe commodity-linked Canadian dollar took a hit after risk appetite receded. The pair saw strong momentum plays after it cleared 1.2650, a major resistance from last April.Short-covering in a crowded bearish trend may have contributed to high volatility. This could be an inflection point for the greenback in the medium term.In the meantime, February’s high at 1.2870 is the next target. Meanwhile, the RSI is back to the neutral area, and the direction is up as long as the price stays above 1.2600.NAS 100 recovers from moving averageThe Nasdaq index seeks support as investors grow wary of the Delta sell-off. The bearish breakout below the key short-term support at 14550 has put buyers under pressure.Price action has so far bounced off the 30-day moving average but buyers will need more assurance to commit again. 14550 is the first support after a rebound above 14680.A high RSI may slow down the pace of the rally. A recovery may only see the light of day if the bulls succeed in pushing above the major hurdle at 14880.

USDJPY struggles for supportThe Japanese yen strengthened on better-than-expected Tokyo CPI in July. The bearish MA cross from the daily timeframe may have put the bulls on the defensive.The dollar’s struggle to keep its head above 109.60 suggests a lack of commitment from the long side. 109.90 has established itself as a fresh resistance.The RSI has risen back into the neutrality area, giving sellers room to push lower. 109.00 is the closest support and its breach could deepen the correction for the days to come.USDCHF falls towards daily supportThe US dollar inches lower as July’s ISM Manufacturing PMI fell short of expectations.The pair dipped further in the bearish territory after 0.9070 failed to keep the price afloat. An oversold RSI has helped the greenback to claw back some lost ground.However, the rebound may be short-lived as sentiment favors selling into strength. 0.9090 is the hurdle where sellers could be waiting to jump in at a better price0.8980 at the origin of the June rebound is a critical demand zone on the daily chart.NAS 100 extends consolidationUS stock markets remain supported thanks to strength among corporate earnings.The Nasdaq 100 has slowly ground its way up from the 20-day moving average. The price action has once again bounced off the demand zone above 14800.As the index recoups its previous losses, there is high hope that the rally could resume to new all-time highs. For this, the bulls will need to lift offers around the peak at 15140. Failing that, a pullback towards 14550, a key level on the daily chart would be the path of least resistance.

US 30 challenges peakThe Dow Jones 30 index holds near its historic high on upbeat investor sentiment.The break above 35330 has signaled the bulls’ commitment to maintain the upward bias, while 35200 is fresh support.An oversold RSI has attracted the buying-the-dips mentality.Price action has recouped the most recent losses and is now testing the peak at 35630. A bullish breakout may extend the rally towards the milestone at 36000. A deeper pullback would lead to the critical floor at 34700.USDJPY awaits breakoutThe Japanese yen inched higher after a drop in July’s unemployment rate. The pair is in a narrowing trading range following its bounce off the demand zone at 109.10.Sentiment remains optimistic as long as price action stays above this critical level.However, the bulls may encounter selling pressure at 110.50 from the August sell-off. A bullish breakout would attract momentum buyers and extend the rally to above 111.00.On the downside, a break below 109.50 would lead to a retest of buyers’ resolve.NZDUSD tests major resistanceThe US dollar continues to weaken across the board from the post-Jackson Hole hangover. The Kiwi is at a crossroads as it climbs back to the daily resistance at 0.7050, the origin of the previous sell-off.A bullish breakout would prompt sellers to cover their bets and lay the groundwork for a reversal.0.7100 would be the next target. However, the RSI’s multiple ventures into the overbought territory may temper the bullish fever.The base of the momentum at 0.6940 is the key to keeping the recovery valid.

EURUSD attempts reversal The US dollar tumbled after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said it is nowhere near a rate hike. The RSI divergence was a giveaway that the sellers may have taken their feet off the pedals. The break above 1.1820 suggests that buyers were trying to get back into the game. As the pair grinds its way up, a close above 1.1850 may foreshadow a U-turn in the coming days, prompting sellers to cover. 1.1880 could be the last hurdle and its clearance may trigger a runaway rally. 1.1770 is a fresh support in case of a pullback. CADJPY tests psychological level The Canadian dollar inched higher after a better-than-expected CPI in June. The bulls are looking to extend the rebound from 85.50, a major support on the daily chart, in order to resume the fifteen-month long uptrend. The break above the support-turned-resistance of 87.60 has put the bears under pressure. The psychological level of 88.00 has so far capped the loonie’s advance. However, an oversold RSI may help gather more buying interest. 86.60 is the immediate support if the consolidation drags on. NAS 100 recoups losses The Nasdaq 100 recovers from profit-takings as investors continue to digest Q2 earnings. The technical pullback has found bids on the 20-day moving average (14800). Buyers were quick to see the oversold RSI as a bargain indicator. The bullish mood remains intact as long as the price is above the previous demand zone near 14550 from the daily chart. Consolidation may run its course for a few more hours as short-term bulls rebuild their stakes. Those armed with patience may wait for a clean break above the peak at 15140.

Oil prices jumped after the IEA raised its global oil demand growth forecast. WTI crude continues to grind its way up after it reached a seven-year high. The RSI has returned to the neutrality area and a short-lived retracement met strong buying interest above 78.70. The bulls may raise volatility once again if they succeed in pushing back above the psychological tag of 82.00. A newly overbought RSI may temporarily restrain the momentum. On the downside, a breakout could trigger a correction to 75.50. XAGUSD rises towards key resistance Silver advanced higher as the US dollar index licks wounds after a heavy decline. The precious metal broke above the supply zone around the 30-day moving average (23.10). This is a sign of a bullish U-turn with 23.95 from the daily timeframe as the next target. As the RSI flirts with the overbought territory, we can expect strong selling pressure at that level of interest. 22.90 is the immediate support in case of retracement. Further down, 22.20 is the bulls’ second line of defense. US 100 attempts a bullish reversal The Nasdaq 100 rose as investors anticipate strong profit growth in the third quarter. The break above 14930 has prompted sellers to cover their positions, alleviating the bearish pressure in the process. The tech index has then secured support around 14600. A bullish close above the psychological level of 15000 would bring some much-needed confidence to the long side. Then the daily resistance at 15415 would be in the crosshair. Meanwhile, the RSI’s overbought situation may cause a limited pullback to 14900.

Uneventful S&P 500 session, seemingly – and then the selling came. 4,550 barely held and the bond markets aren‘t looking favorable to the bulls. Ultimately, Treasury traders had the last word, snuffing hitherto positively mediocre HYG performance. The dollar didn‘t move much, and as I summed up in the intraday update, risk-off reigned supreme across many assets. The prior mentioned 15 level in VIX held, and we‘re treated to higher volatility now – breaking the 4,550s on a negative earnings surprise (expectations as to forward guidance are quite high, and yesterday‘s selling driven presumably by instituitional players doesn‘t bode well), wouldn‘t be unimaginable – so, I took open long profits off the table. I would like to see yields increasing again, and the yield curve not to be flattening anymore – positive sign thereof would be commodities rising again together with a fresh upswing in inflation expectations after the prior two down days. Such a move would also exert pressure on the dollar, and the high beta stock market sectors with commodities and precious metals would spring to life again. All in all, it looks like we‘re undergoing a soft patch, squaring of bullish bets before the coming Fed Wednesday. Would taper though mark the end of the commodity or precious metals superbull? Hardly. Remember that fresh money isn‘t needed to repair banks‘ balance sheets now, but flows directly into financial markets that are still most attentive to the money spigot. Cryptos are already recovering from yesterday‘s setback, joined by copper bucking the energy downswing, which in spite of the surprise build in oil inventories or Russia riding to Europe‘s natgas rescue, would likely prove temporary. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 setback stopped at a critical level, and it‘ll be shortly decided whether at least somewhat lower prices would arrive – look to credit markets for clues. Credit Markets The day ended with carnage, and not until HYG overcomes yesterday‘s open, can the bulls feel more confident. Not yet out of the danger zone, but it would be worse should the volume be higher. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold buyers timidly stepped in, and an upswing in the miners to confirm, is what we‘re waiting for. Lower yields are here, and a fresh commodities upleg (focus is on  the copper turn), would help as much as a fresh dollar setback. Crude Oil Crude oil bears are sniffing out opportunity, which would be invalidated with a return to the mid $83 zone. Until that happens, get ready for drawn out and tiring moves for the bulls. The energy crunch isn‘t over, and the U.S. economy can and will have to withstand even higher prices. Copper Copper steeply declined, a bit too much over the last 1+ week given the CRB Index performance – a corrective upswing looms, but has to decidedly overcome 4.55 to flip the short-term outlook to bullish again. Bitcoin and Ethereum The Bitcoin and Ethereum bulls are at it again, and lower crypto prices are being rejected – that‘s an encouraging sign going into the Fed next week. Summary Stocks aren‘t likely to fly today as yet another (this time) annualized GDP reading came in at merely 2.0% - with rising input costs from materials to labor, the stock bull run needs to be supported by more positive earnings news. Treasuries are signalling caution ahead, which however shouldn‘t sink either commodities or precious metals. Look for the dollar first to signal weakening of the risk-off positioning.     Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.   Thank you,   Monica Kingsley Stock Trading Signals Gold Trading Signals Oil Trading Signals Copper Trading Signals Bitcoin Trading Signals www.monicakingsley.co mk@monicakingsley.co   * * * * * All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.  

Despite the DexCom (DXCM) Nick Jonas Super Bowl ad, investors seem to be turning bearish. It is very important to watch insiders of the company you’re invested in and it seems insider faith is dwindling. According to a recent press release, the company stated that it has partnered with Nick Jonas to bring more awareness to DexCom’s continuous glucose monitoring system for diabetes. The ad is expected to run Sunday, February 7th. Despite this partnership, DexCom insiders are selling their stake. This could be a sign that helps investors acknowledge that insider faith is dwindling. There are many reasons as to why these insiders are selling stock, however the most common reasons are that they could believe that the company is heading in the wrong direction. They do this in order to sell before the stock price takes notice which may lead other investors to sell their positions. It’s fair to note that these insiders has been selling all of their shares with no buying positions since February 2020. Another company which may take major market share Another soon to be major player in the diabetes device market is Senseonics (SENS), this company has a new innovative approach. Instead of creating a device that pokes into the skin and limits movement, they created an implantable sensor that goes under the skin and a transmitter which sits atop above the skin. According to recent reviews, the implant procedure is painless and takes less than 10 minutes. In a few years I predict that this company will take major market share from its competitors like DexCom therefore reaching a price target of $20+ after the FDA approves the 180-day CGM device.

  The S&P 500 index got back above the 4,700 level on Friday after gaining almost 1%. The only way is up now? For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch today's video. Nasdaq 100 Remains Close to the 16,400 Level Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index got back to the 16,400 level last week. It is the nearest important resistance level, marked by some previous local highs. Tech stocks remain relatively weaker, as the Nasdaq 100 is still well below the Nov. 22 record high of 16,764.85. Conclusion The S&P 500 index will likely slightly extend its last week’s advances this morning. However we may see a short-term profit-taking action at some point. There have been no confirmed short-term negative signals so far, and we may see an attempt at getting back to the late November record high. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 is expected to open slightly higher this morning but we may see a consolidation above the 4,700 level. Our short-position is very close a stop-loss level, and we’ll close it if it breaks above it again. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Welcome to the last episode of Market Talk of the year. In this episode, I discuss the New Year resolutions, which sectors will likely do well, what to watch, where to be careful. There are US and Chinese tech giants, electric cars, cryptocurrencies, traditional currencies, energy stocks, reflation, the Fed and much more! Watch the full episode to find out more!

Video analysis -  Emini S&P MARCH completed the right should of a small head & shoulders pattern breaking the neck line is at 4590/4580 for a medium term sell signal. A bounce to this level was a perfect sell opportunity again yesterday. A potential drop of 200 points is on the cards. We have already seen a 150 point drop Nasdaq MARCH I warned that we could be starting a short term bear trend - that situation is certainly developing with lower highs on bounces & lower lows on each down move. Yesterday we accelerated moves to the downside & the outlook remains negative. Emini Dow Jones MARCH broke the 200 day moving average at 34900/850 as expected to hit the next target of 34560/540. Outlook remains negative. Update daily at 07:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Emini S&P break of the neck line at 4590/80 is a significant sell signal as we hit all targets as far as 4450/45 for bumper profits. The only support for today is the 200 day moving average at 4430/20. A weekly close (or a break lower today of course) is another important medium term sell signal. First target would be 4360/50. However 4200 is definitely not out of the question. Gains are likely to be limited as panic seems to build. First resistance at 4520/30. Shorts need stops above 4550. Strong resistance at 4590/4600 of course. Nasdaq is building a minor negative trend in January with a break below the 200 day moving average at 15000/14950 another a significant sell signal. Losses accelerate to the downside as predicted. The break below 14830 is the next sell signal targeting the only support for today at 14430/14380. A weekly close below here is an important sell signal for next week. We could easily drop another 500 points. Gains are likely to be limited with strong resistance at 15000/100 & again at 15400/500. Emini Dow Jones likely to targets first support at 34050/33950. I am concerned about a break lower later in the day, for a sell signal eventually targeting 33200. Gains are likely to be limited with resistance at 34900/35000 & 35350/450. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.

The S&P500 and Nasdaq dived 4% before reversing losses and closing the session in the green. But yesterday’s rebound doesn’t mean the equity markets are out of the woods just yet. On the contrary, the rising volatility hints at further market turbulence ahead, as investors are worried about the Fed tightening, the Ukrainian war threat, and some unachieved goals on Biden’s political agenda as the Build Back Better & Chinese trade deficit. The FOMC starts its two-day meeting today, yet given the bloodbath in equity markets, the policymakers could refrain from reviving the Fed hawks. But even with an eventually softer Fed statement, and some market correction, there is a slim chance we see meme stocks, SPAC deals, or highly speculative names doing well in an environment of tighter Fed liquidity. There is, on the other hand, a better chance for companies like Apple and Microsoft to navigate through a high turbulence market. So, the Fed tightening will certainly support the reflation trade, but it will more importantly trigger a flight to quality. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:21 Market update: S&P500, Nasdaq shattered 2:47 … but UBS is positive 4:39 If you buy the dip, make sure to buy the right stocks 6:01 Fed meeting 7:09 Microsoft, Apple earnings 7:37 Challenges beyond the Fed tightening 8:53 Safe haven roundup: USD, gold & Swiss franc Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.

Recent volatility in the US markets ahead of the Fed comments/actions have prompted a relatively big pullback in almost every sector. Many traders are concerned the Fed may take immediate action to raise rates. Yet, a small portion of traders believes the Fed may be trapped in a position to act more conservatively in addressing inflation going forward. I think the Fed will continue to talk firmly about potentially raising rates. The Fed is more interested in decreasing the assets on their balance sheet before they risk doing anything to disrupt support for the global markets.Suppose my analysis of the Fed predicament is correct. In that case, the recent collapse of the US markets represents a fear-based emotional selloff of many sectors that may still represent a strong opportunity for a recovery rally in 2022. One of those sectors is the Financial sector – particularly XLF.I wrote about this on January 7, 2022, in this article: FINANCIAL SECTOR STARTS TO RALLY TOWARDS THE $43.60 UPSIDE TARGETI also wrote how the US Fed might be playing with fire regarding their stern positioning and statements recently in this article on January 14, 2022: US FEDERAL RESERVE - PLAYING WITH FIRE PART 2Critical Components Of Recent Inflationary TrendsIf you attempt to follow my logic as I read into the Fed's intentions. There are three critical components to navigating the rise of inflationary trends recently.The COVID-19 virus event created several disparities in the global markets. First, the disruption to the labor and supply-side markets began an almost immediate inflationary aspect for the global economy. Secondly, the US's stimulus and easy money policies have stimulated demand for products, technology, houses, autos, and other real assets. These two factors combined have increased inflationary pressures on the global markets.Rising consumer demand for real and virtual assets such as Cryptos, NFTs, and others has pushed the speculative investing cycle into a hyper-active rally phase. This was clearly witnessed in early 2021, with the Reddit/Meme rallies became the hottest trades, then quickly dissipated after July 2021. This speculative rally has pushed the post-COVID rally well beyond reasonable expectations over the past 16+ months.Excessive debt levels push a deflationary process to the forefront. Consumers are now starting to pull away from the excesses of the past 16+ months. The Fed's tough talk and recent deeper declines in various sectors over the past 12+ months show that inflationary trends are subsiding. Despite the supply-side issues being resolved, consumers continue to pull away from hyper-speculative activities. The markets will naturally revalue to support more realistic price levels, deflating excessive P/E ratios and recent extreme price peaks in assets.Possible Next Steps for the US FedMy interpretation of the global markets is that excess speculative trending and rising commodity prices, combined with excess debt levels and consumers who have suddenly become very aware of global market risks, are already acting as a deflationary process. Because of these underlying factors, which I believe are currently in play throughout the globe, the US Federal Reserve may be forced to wait things out a bit. The Fed may have to navigate these natural deflationary processes while attempting to provide monetary support for what I believe will be a downside/deflationary trend over the next 3+ years.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! The US Federal Reserve may not have to take any aggressive action right now. Instead, it may decide to watch how the global markets contract as consumers pull away from inflated price levels and higher risks and attempt to navigate these natural deflationary price trends. If the Fed were to act aggressively right now and raise rates, they could push the global markets into a steeper collapse. This process would likely burst numerous asset bubbles very quickly and push many foreign nations into some type of debt default.This presents a new problem for the US Fed – going from inflationary concerns to global economic collapse concerns very quickly. So when I suggested the Fed is playing with fire – maybe I should have said “playing with the nuclear economic football”?Financial Sector ResilienceStill, I believe the US Financial sector is showing tremendous resilience near $37.50. I think it has a powerful opportunity to rally back above $42 to $44 if the Fed takes a more measured approach to let the global markets deflate a bit before taking any aggressive actions.The US Financial sector will likely continue to benefit from price volatility and consumer demand as these deflationary trends prompt consumers to engage in more normal economic activities. The Financial sector also has continued to stay under moderate pricing pressure since the 2008 highs. XLF is only 25.46% higher than the 2008 highs, whereas the NASDAQ is more than 575% above the 2008 market highs.The Financial Sector may be one of the strongest market sectors over the next few years. Deflationary trends push consumers and global markets away from excess debt levels and towards more traditional economic activities/trends.Want To Learn More About Financial Sector ETFs?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

Emini S&P MARCH no stuck in a 170 tick range from 4280/60 up to very strong resistance at 4425/45 - shorting this level keeps working & eventually I think we will break to the downside but keep scalping the levels in the mean time. Nasdaq MARCH holding first resistance at 14400/450 with a high for the day again on Friday, in what I think is a bear trend & therefore eventually we will break lower. Emini Dow Jones MARCH also very volatile of course. Update daily at 07:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Emini S&P shorts at resistance at the 200 day moving average & strong resistance at 4425/45 keep working. If you are scalping watch the levels of 4410/00, 4360/50 & also 4310/00. Below here re-targets 4270/60 before a test of the best support at 4200/4180. Bulls must defend this level or we are staring at a test of 4000. I think they will fail eventually. Will be interesting to see the monthly candle on the close on Monday . Just be aware that a break lower targets 4145/25 & 4090/80, probably as far as 4055, just to get started. Gains are likely to be limited with resistance at 4350/60, 4400/10 & of course very strong resistance at 4425/45. Shorts need stops above 4465. If we unexpectedly continue higher look for 4510/20. Nasdaq outlook remains negative in my opinion despite the fact that we keep bouncing to first resistance at 14400/450. A break higher this time can retest 14660/690. I really do not expected further gains but there is very strong resistance at 14800/850. Shorts at first resistance at 14400/450 target 14180/160, perhaps as far as 13950/900. Further losses obviously can retest 13750/700. However I would not rely on this holding a second time. A break lower is a sell signal targeting 13490/460, perhaps as far as 13400/360. Eventually we could meet an excellent buying opportunity at 13000/12900. Longs need stops below 12700. Emini Dow Jones minor support at 34000/33900 but below here can target 33600/560 (a low for the day here on Friday), perhaps as far as 33350/300 before best support for today at 33050/33000. I do not think this will hold for long. Be ready to sell a break below 32900 targeting 32700 & probably as far as the best support for this week at 32500/300. Bulls must defend this level or we could see a test of 31000. Minor resistance at 34200/250 & 344500/550. Above 35650 look for 34900/950. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.

"Episode 008 of ‘The Trade Off’ — the 'Home Office Episode' is here! This weekly #trading series features Blake Morrow (ForexAnalytix) and our very own Chris Weston, as they engage in an energetic discussion of the financial markets — what’s hot, what’s not and always breaking down the trade. Find out more at https://thetradeoff.tv 00:00 Disclaimer and welcome 01:18 Intro: Pepperstone is on TradingView! 03:17 Topical Thunder: Nasdaq 06:36 Non-Farm Payrolls 10:08 Central Banks 13:45 Crude 17:25 That's a Setup: GBPAUD 20:15 Bitcoin 22:30 Energy 25:02 Gold 27:40 Chris' Play of the Day: Soybean Meal 29:13 Blake's Play of the Day: SPY 30:46 Wrap-up Prefer to listen rather than watch? The Trade Off is now also a podcast! Listen either Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Apple Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast... Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/7gzvAJx... Did you know Pepperstone is now on TradingView? https://www.tradingview.com/broker/Pe... The Trade Off is powered by Pepperstone. Pepperstone is an online FX/CFD broker providing traders across the globe with cutting-edge technology to trade the world’s markets. We’re driven to provide traders with low-cost pricing across all instruments including FX and CFDs (crypto, commodities, indices)."

Ethereum price made a false break below a short-term trend line yesterday.ETH price breaks above $2,695 and is set for a run towards $3,018.This would mean 13% gains for ETH and a more favourable outlook for next week.Ethereum (ETH) price is set to book the best gains it has made for the whole of 2022, as a bullish candle has now formed on the back of a significant support level. With that move, many bears are getting hurt as they probably fell in the bear trap with the false break below the supportive short-term trend line. Expect more upside to come with global markets enjoying the rally in Amazon shares, which is spilling over into cryptocurrencies and lifting sentiment in ETH towards $3,018.ETH bulls are stabbing bears in the back with a trapEthereum price was dangling below a short-term trend line and looked quite heavy after the slippage (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/top-3-price-prediction-bitcoin-ethereum-ripple-crypto-sentiments-rolls-over-as-meta-shakes-nasdaq-202202031412) from META earnings. But that markets can change their minds overnight is proven yet again, after Amazon’s earnings fueled a booster rally which we are seeing today. This has spilled over into cryptocurrencies and is lifting sentiment in ETH prices with a firm break above $2,695, squeezing out bears in the process, who went short on the false break of the trend line, and it is now just a matter of time before they close out and take their losses.ETH price is thus set for a second rally today as those bears will need to revert to the buy-side volume (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereum-price-pushes-higher-eth-targeting-3-500-202202021800) to close and cut their losses. This will add a boost to ETH prices and could see Ethereum bulls hitting the price target at $3,018, taking out the $3,000 level, and setting the stage for next week. With that move, the red descending trend line could be broken, and with that, the downturn since December, finally (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereum-price-pushes-higher-eth-targeting-3-500-202202021800) breaking the chances for bears and setting the stage for a possible longer-term uptrend.ETH/USD daily chartNevertheless, there are still some earnings on the docket for today that could surprise to the downside and see those tailwinds (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/top-3-price-prediction-bitcoin-ethereum-ripple-crypto-markets-to-favor-bears-soon-202202020838) as quickly fade as they came. Expect that with that lack of support, ETH price will collapse back to $2,695 and start to weigh further on the bulls. Should that spiral into equities, pushing them firmly in the red, and impacting safe haven flow – expect a dip back towards $2,600.

El Salvador plans to issue its first Bitcoin bond between March 15 and March 20, 2022. The corporate adoption of Bitcoin went parabolic since the addition of BTC to MicroStrategy’s balance sheet. Amidst rising adoption from institutions, the Salvadoran Finance minister expects the offering to be oversubscribed by an additional $500 million. Analysts at FSInsight predict Bitcoin price could hit $222,000 before the end of 2022. El Salvador has announced the launch of its Bitcoin bond next month. Salvadorans are riding the wave of institutional Bitcoin adoption, fueling a bullish outlook among investors. Bitcoin price rally fueled by El Salvador’s bond issuance and institutional investment El Salvador plans on issuing its first Bitcoin bond in March 2022. The Salvadoran Finance Minister, Alejandro Zelaya told a local news show that the government plans to issue the Bitcoin bond between March 15 and March 20. Zelaya was quoted as saying: If we really want to build this country, we have to invest in it like this. The Salvadoran Bitcoin Bond will pay investors 6.5% per annum. $500 million raised from the bond issuance will be used for Bitcoin mining and developing renewable energy from volcanoes, another $500 million for buying more Bitcoin. El Salvador’s government plans to issue $1 billion for the first bond and expects it to be oversubscribed by an additional $500 million. The minimum purchase is $100, and investors can directly buy without involving a broker. The Bitcoin bond would be issued on Blockstream’s Liquid Network sidechain. Salvador’s move to launch a Bitcoin bond is timed in accordance with the rising corporate adoption of the asset. Firms are keen on adding Bitcoin to their balance sheet; recent Wells Fargo and JP Morgan reports have affirmed a bullish outlook on BTC price. Analysts at FSInsights recently evaluated the Bitcoin price trend and set a target of $222,000 for the end of 2022. FXStreet analysts believe that Bitcoin price could stumble on track to $50,000.

Investors loved the sound of peace and the risk appetite came back yesterday as Russians started pulling a part of their troops back from the Ukrainian border. Although, news of a cyber-attack on some Ukrainian banks and some government websites including the defense ministry’s website raised a couple of eyebrows again, and turned all eyes to the Russians. But there is no report suggesting that Russia is behind the cyber-attack just yet. Oil fell as much as 4% yesterday on de-escalation news. Gold dropped 35 dollars, as the safe haven money poured into the risk assets. European and US indices rallied. But, released yesterday, the US producer inflation data came in as a bad surprise, yet again. With the looming inflation worries, let’s see if today’s FOMC minutes will kill that joy. Hopeful news is that the latest Fed decision was more hawkish than expected, and the minutes could smooth out a part of the extra hawkishness. Elsewhere, Warren Buffet invested in Brazil’s Nubank, finally building some exposure to cryptocurrencies! Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:25 Ukraine update 1:55 Oil dropped 3:49 Gold sunk 4:56 FOMC minutes: what to expect? 6:13 Nasdaq: death cross formation soon? 7:01 Warren Buffet gets exposure to Bitcoin! 7:56 European indices up: are gains sustainable? Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.

Emini S&P MARCH we wrote: bounced to my first target of 4260/70. In fact a high for the day exactly here. However there is a good chance that is is only a pause & eventually we continue higher towards 4300/10, perhaps as far as strong resistance at 4360/80. Nice call as we paused for quite a long time at 4260/70 but eventually broke higher as predicted as far as strong resistance at 4360/80 with a high for the day exactly here. Nasdaq MARCH we wrote: We have held the 23.6% Fibonacci level of 13850/950 but I think this is just a pause . Eventually (hopefully today) a break above 14000 signals further gains to minor resistance at 14070/080 then 14350/360. Higher as predicted & on the way to 14350/360 I think. Emini Dow Jones MARCH we wrote: longs at strong support at 32400/300 worked perfectly with longs winning huge sums on the bounce to resistance at 32900/33000....but I think this is just a pause . Eventually (hopefully today) a break above 33400 signals further gains to 33600 before strong resistance at 33900/34000. Did you run the long from 32400/300 all the way up to 33900/34000 for a huge 1500 tick gain? Update daily at 07:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Emini S&P higher as predicted & straight to my target & strong resistance at 4360/80 with a high for the day here for a perfect call on Friday! A break higher certainly possible on Monday to target 4420/30, perhaps as far as strong resistance at 4450/60. Shorts need stops above 4470. A break higher targets 450/4510, perhaps as far as resistance at 4530/40. Holding strong resistance at 4360/80 risks a slide to 4325/20 before strong support at 4275/65. Longs need stops below 4250. A break lower however targets 4220/10, perhaps as far as important support at 4195/4185. Nasdaq can target minor resistance at 14350/360 before very strong resistance at 14400/450. A high for the day is expected - shorts need stops above 14500. A break higher however is a buy signal targeting 14800/850. Strong support at 13950/850 but longs need stops below 13750. A break lower targets 13600/550 before a retest of important longer term support at 13000/12900. Longs need stops below 12800. A break lower however could send prices down another 1000 points eventually. Emini Dow Jones longs at strong support at 32400/300 worked perfectly for up to 1500 ticks profit on the run to strong resistance at 33900/34000. Shorts need stops above 34150. A break higher targets 34500, perhaps as far as strong resistance at 3500/35100. Holding strong resistance at 33900/34000 targets 33300/33200. Longs need stops below 33000. Again strong support at 32400/30. A break below 32000 is then a very important longer term sell signal & could see 750 tick losses almost immediately. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT bonds data is the pullback in the 10-Year Bond bearish bets this week. The speculative position in the 10-Year Bond has risen for two straight weeks following three straight weeks of declines (or rising bearish bets). The last two week’s rise has shaved off over 113,886 contracts from the total bearish position and brings the current standing to the least bearish level of the past five weeks at a total of -263,834 contracts. The 10-Year has been under pressure like most all bond markets as the Federal Reserve has started raising interest rates with an outlook of more rate increases to come. The 10-Year yield (as bond prices fall, yields rise) has been sharping surging to the upside with the close this week right around the 2.50 percent level, marking its highest yield since May of 2019. The speculator’s 10-Year bond pullback this week will likely be short-lived and it will be interesting to see if this latest bout of inflation, growth and central bank rate rises will be enough to finally break the multi-decade bull market for bonds. The bond markets with higher speculator bets were the 10-Year Bond (57,163 contracts), Fed Funds (91,899 contracts) and the 5-Year Bond (50,964 contracts). The bond markets with lower speculator bets were the 2-Year Bond (-27,015 contracts), Eurodollar (-128,245 contracts), Ultra 10-Year (-21,571 contracts), Long US Bond (-11,687 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (-32,279 contracts). Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-22-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index Eurodollar 10,832,338 41 -2,656,722 0 3,074,395 100 -417,673 13 FedFunds 2,132,176 81 -13,382 38 29,682 63 -16,300 18 2-Year 2,297,315 20 -47,448 73 126,538 48 -79,090 10 Long T-Bond 1,128,229 36 32,551 95 -5,394 18 -27,157 31 10-Year 3,807,553 51 -263,834 31 464,339 80 -200,505 32 5-Year 3,774,450 36 -296,338 31 544,383 80 -248,045 13   3-Month Eurodollars Futures: The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,656,722 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -128,245 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,528,477 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent. 3-Month Eurodollars Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.2 75.7 3.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.7 47.4 7.4 – Net Position: -2,656,722 3,074,395 -417,673 – Gross Longs: 451,791 8,204,977 389,102 – Gross Shorts: 3,108,513 5,130,582 806,775 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 12.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -11.9 11.0 5.8   30-Day Federal Funds Futures: The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -13,382 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 91,899 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,281 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent. 30-Day Federal Funds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.1 77.0 1.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.7 75.6 2.6 – Net Position: -13,382 29,682 -16,300 – Gross Longs: 150,828 1,640,744 38,998 – Gross Shorts: 164,210 1,611,062 55,298 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.0 63.5 18.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.2 5.6 -10.5   2-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -47,448 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -27,015 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,433 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent. 2-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.9 73.9 6.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.0 68.4 9.6 – Net Position: -47,448 126,538 -79,090 – Gross Longs: 365,795 1,697,892 140,374 – Gross Shorts: 413,243 1,571,354 219,464 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 72.7 47.5 9.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.3 5.2 5.5   5-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -296,338 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 50,964 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -347,302 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent. 5-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.1 81.6 7.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.9 67.2 13.7 – Net Position: -296,338 544,383 -248,045 – Gross Longs: 342,471 3,081,019 268,697 – Gross Shorts: 638,809 2,536,636 516,742 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.2 79.7 12.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -28.8 21.1 -2.5   10-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -263,834 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 57,163 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -320,997 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent. 10-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.8 77.9 7.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.8 65.7 13.2 – Net Position: -263,834 464,339 -200,505 – Gross Longs: 412,030 2,966,196 302,390 – Gross Shorts: 675,864 2,501,857 502,895 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.4 80.0 32.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.5 -2.3 18.6   Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures: The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -91,321 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -21,571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,750 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.7 80.5 9.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.7 63.9 18.8 – Net Position: -91,321 214,698 -123,377 – Gross Longs: 125,921 1,045,958 120,546 – Gross Shorts: 217,242 831,260 243,923 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.6 100.0 41.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -35.7 27.0 20.8   US Treasury Bonds Futures: The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 32,551 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -11,687 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,238 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent. US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.7 72.6 13.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.9 73.1 16.3 – Net Position: 32,551 -5,394 -27,157 – Gross Longs: 109,965 819,658 156,236 – Gross Shorts: 77,414 825,052 183,393 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 95.2 18.4 31.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.3 -18.7 -5.4   Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures: The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -298,523 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -32,279 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -266,244 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent. Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.6 81.2 12.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.2 61.0 9.2 – Net Position: -298,523 255,630 42,893 – Gross Longs: 70,425 1,026,988 158,649 – Gross Shorts: 368,948 771,358 115,756 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 63.4 40.0 59.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.1 -14.1 8.3   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

AUDUSD after last week's bearish engulfing candle in severely overbought conditions we now have a small shooting star candle after the retest of last week's high, leaving a potential double top sell signal. Emini S&P JUNE we wrote: We are now severely overbought on the daily chart & short term charts. Although I think we could drop 100 points there is no sell signal so I cannot recommend a short. If we do head lower (as I think we will), look for 4585/80... A perfect call as we reverse to 4575. Nasdaq June beat resistance at 14400/500 for a buy signal targeting 14650/680 then 14820/870 & as far as my ultimate target & strong resistance at 15100/15200. Shorts here worked perfectly we reverse from 15268. Update daily by 05:00 GMT Today's Analysis. AUDUSD shorts at 7500/7530 re-target 7450/45 then 7405/7395. A low for the day certainly possible but longs are now more risky after the potential sell signal. Bulls need a break above 7555 to kill the negative signal from the bearish candles. A break higher targets 7630/40. Emini S&P JUNE reversed from Tuesday's high as predicted to hit the first target of 4585/80, with a low for the day half way to support at 4565/55. Further losses meet very strong support at 4520/10. Longs need stops below 4495. We could have a high for the 2 week recovery in place now. A bounce this morning obviously meets resistance at 4625/30. However a break above 4640 opens the door to 4660/70 & a break above here is the next buy signal. Nasdaq JUNE tests strong resistance at 15100/15200. Shorts need stops above 15350. A break higher is a buy signal targeting 15500/520, perhaps as far as 15650. Our shorts target first support at 14950/900. A bounce from here is possible. However longs may be too risky. If we continue lower look for 14850 then 14750/700. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.

Nasdaq100 has added over 2% on Monday, in contrast with a more modest gain of 0.8% for the S&P500 and a barely notable 0.3% rise for the Dow Jones. But this is not a signal of general optimism from market participants; instead, it’s a switch in focus to Chinese companies. Often the outperformance of technology-rich Nasdaq is taken as a signal of an accelerating economy and a move by investors to look for assets that outperform the broader market during an economic boom. But along with that, we would see the Russell Index, which includes 2,000 small US stock market companies, outperform. And it was only up 0.2% over Monday, struggling to move into positive territory by the end of the day yesterday. On the other hand, Chinese companies are going from weak to growth drivers. However, this is nothing more than a recovery from lows after a year of aggressive declines. Earlier in March, China’s H-shar lost more than half its value in 13 months of sell-off. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down 40% at its lowest point, plunging to 2016 lows. In the first half of March, the most significant acceleration came on signals that China and the US had moved from trade wars to financial wars as the latter threatened to delist. However, financial market turbulence is the last thing Xi Jinping needs this year, as there will be an election at the end of it, where he will be the leading candidate. Improving the economic situation is often the most effective way for the incumbent to gain electoral support. And China has a lot to work with. Much the same can be said for the US, where the November Senate elections will be held. Democrat Biden’s record-low approval rating plays against his party in the coming elections and the rising stagflation threat. The threat of delisting from the US is a blow to prestige, but it also closes off access to the softest financial terms for new companies and the deepest pool of liquidity. China could only afford it in the event of mania in Chinese markets and a booming Chinese economy. But that is not the case right now. The PRC economy lags behind its forecast growth trajectory due to continued covid lockdowns. Achieving the expected 5.5% GDP growth this year requires stimulus and easing of monetary policy, regardless of inflation risks and without regard to the rest of the world, which is tightening policy. This is a favourable environment for the market, at least for the time being. The Chinese equity market thus ceases to be a ‘sick man’, dragging global equity indices down and suppressing investor interest. On the contrary, even after returning to 5-week highs, Chinese equities still look very cheap, turning into a leading idea for the markets with a 9% jump in Baidu and a 6.6% rise in Alibaba on Monday. Placed amongst others in the US, Alibaba and Baidu, the biggest of which are now pulling the indices up, spreading positivity across the entire tech sector. Twitter’s 27% jump in shares on reports of Musk’s 9.2% stake in the company says more about the market’s mood to look for growth drivers than how much this passive share of the Tesla CEO can help the social network. And that’s good news a couple of weeks before the start of the new reporting season after a worrying first quarter.

Dax break below 14350/300 is the next sell signal targeting 13950/850. I am not looking to buy ion weakness - I think we will continue to trend lower eventually targeting 13600/550. I prefer to sell a bounce with minor resistance at 14225/250 then best sell opportunity at 14350/400. Shorts need stops above 13500. EURUSD continues lower as expected breaking support at 1.0960/50 for a sell signal targeting important 5 year trend line support at 1.0850/20. Longs need stops below 1.0780. Gains are likely to be limited with resistance at 1.0950/60. Shorts need stops above 1.0980. USDCAD longs at the 500 week moving average at 1.2440/10 worked perfectly with a low for the day exactly here. The expected break above 1.2510/30 targets a sell opportunity at 1.2590/1.2610. Shorts need stops above 1.2625. Minor support at 1.2525/05 could hold the downside but below here can target 1.2480/70. Obviously we have a buying opportunity at 1.2440/10. Longs need stops below 1.2370. A break lower is an important medium term sell signal. Emini S&P JUNE holding strong support at 4520/10 targets 4530/35. I think gains are likely to be limited but above here can target look for resistance at 4555/65. If we unexpectedly continue higher look for a retest of 4585/80, before resistance at 4625/30. However a break above 4640 opens the door to 4660/70 & a break above here is the next buy signal. We held strong support at 4520/10. Longs need stops below 4495. A break lower this week is a sell signal targeting 4480 then 4450/40. Nasdaq JUNE shorts at strong resistance again at 15100/15200 worked perfectly targeting 14750/700, 14600 & 14450/350. A LOW FOR THE DAY EXACTLY HERE! A bounce to resistance at 14750/800 is certainly possible, although I prefer to sell in to resistance then buy in to support as I think the trend is lower. If you do try a long stop below 14300. A break lower sees 14350/450 act as resistance targeting 14150/100, perhaps as far as 13900/850. First resistance at 14750/800. Shorts need stops above 14900. Strong resistance again at 15100/15200. Shorts need stops above 15350. An unexpected break higher this week is a buy signal targeting 15500/520, perhaps as far as 15650. Emini Dow Jones JUNE shorts at resistance at 34850/900 worked perfectly on the slide as predicted to my 34440/400 target. The break below 34400 is a sell signal targeting 2 week lows at 34200/150, probably 33990/950, perhaps as far as 33800. First resistance at 34400/500. Strong resistance at 34850/950 - shorts need stops above 35150. Please email me if you need this report updated or Whatsapp: +66971910019 – To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk

MULN stock continues to suffer, closing down 7% on Tuesday. MULN stock is suffering in the wake of a negative report from Hindenburg Research. MULN stock is now down to $2.47 from highs above $4 in late March. The hangover from the Hindenburg report appears to be continuing for MULN stock on Wednesday as it loses more ground in the early stages of the regular session. MULN stock is trading at $2.4 for a loss of 3% after just seven minutes of Wednesday's session. Investors are still digesting the various newsflow in relation to the company and as far as we are aware MULN has not commented on the recent developments. Social media remains the place where traders are going to look for more info, never a great hutning ground for timely and accurate information. Analysis: Lumber Price, Uranium Price and Crude Oil - Commodities in the Current Market Risk appetites wanted and equities closed lower MULN stock lost more ground on Tuesday as investors continue to digest and argue over the Hindenburg report. MULN stock had attempted to open positively on Tuesday as the overall market was buoyed by the core CPI number actually being less than expected. Risk assets looked to outperform after recent losses and MULN stock opened flat before trading modestly higher. However, as the session wore on it was not just MULN that suffered a turnaround. Risk appetites wanted and equities closed lower. MULN stock was not immune and dropped sharply to close 7.1% lower at $2.47. MULN stock news Really there is not much fresh information to go over here. We had the sharply critical Hindenburg report calling Mullen another fast-talking EV hustle. Then there was some form of additional commentary earlier this week from a youtube interview with the CEO of the battery testing company that tested Mullens battery. All in all, confusion reigned and that was part of the reason for the recovery in MULN stock earlier this week. Volatility after all is a key feature of the stock. So confusion raged and the debate kicked off on social media with MULN stock remaining high on the most discussed lists of many stock sites. Short interest was mentioned as it appears to have grown above 20%. But with the huge recent volume, the days to cover have lessened so this will reduce pressure on shorts positions to cover. Tuesday's price fall will also naturally lessen pressure on short positions. MULN stock forecast Each spike in MULN stock is generally met with a sell-off and each spike fails at a lower and lower level. So a classic downtrend. This is high-risk penny stock investing so take necessary caution. Penny stocks are notorious for volatility among other issues. MULN stock looks to be headed straight back down, the spike has failed, and now support at $2.06 is likely to be broken. Next up below is a test of $1. MULN stock chart, daily

Netflix plunged over 20% in the after-hours trading, following the release of Q1 2022 earnings report. Subscriber base shrank by 200,000, marking the first drop in overall users in more than a decade. The drop was led by a loss of 700 thousand subscribers from Russia as the company suspended services in the country and as competition in the streaming sector continues to become more challenging. Read next: (UKOIL) Brent Crude Oil Spikes to Highest Price For April, (NGAS) Natural Gas Hitting Pre-2008 Prices, Cotton Planting Has Begun US indices have been increasingly reactive to this earning season Today, investors will focus on the highly anticipated earnings release form Tesla, which managed to mostly mitigate the impact of supply shortages and rising inflation thus far while expanding its production facilities. While growing concerns relating to covid-19 related lockdowns in China persist, investors will be keeping a close eye on Q1 results along with the company's outlook for the rest of 2022 after Elon Musk attracted additional attention after offering to buy Twitter at a significant premium. US indices have been increasingly reactive to this earning season after many investors have started to look past the initial shock caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and today could be no exception. Read next: Altcoins' Rally: Solana (SOL) Soars Even More, DOT and SHIBA INU Do The Same! | FXMAG.COM Oil prices attempt to recover after 6% drop Oil is trading higher after prices dropped significantly following the long easter weekend. WTI broke above $103 per barrel while Brent jumped above $108 at the start of today's session but appear to remain constrained in a narrow range for the time being. Traders await today's EIA inventory report which is expected to show a 2.5 million barrel increase after yesterday's API report defied expectations by indicating a 4.5 million barrel drop. While rising demand concerns caused by the increase in covid lockdowns in China continue to pressure the price, the uncertain situation relating to the potential import ban of Russian energy from Europe remains a key topic to watch and may cause noticeable volatility if things were to change suddenly.  

Summary: Rising inflation and hawkish reserve banks left investors risk averse. No particular news driving the stock price turn around for the market. Read next: Stock Market Showing Signs Of Slight Recovery Amidst U.S CPI Report Release  Bitcoins prices crashing The price of Bitcoin crashed almost 7% during the trading day on Thursday. The reason for this seems to be the same as what is happening with investors on the wider financial market, investors are turning risk averse and selling off their Bitcoin holdings in the wake of economic insecurity. The current crash is dropped lower than the value during the crash in July 2021. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM The Fed’s increasing interest rates was an initial driver for investor sentiment to change bearish, the increasing interest rates made it more expensive to make bets on the financial markets. Investors are less confident in the ability of cryptocurrencies to hold their value as regulators battle rising inflation. Bitcoin USD Price Chart GBP likely to weaken further According to dailyfx.com, investors are betting on the Pound Sterling to strengthen against the US Dollar. The information the market has right now is that the UK economy is slowing, and likely to enter into a period of stagflation, this will likely cause the value of the GBP to weaken further. The future value of the GBP is not looking too bright. Nasdaq turns around. The Nasdaq has seen poor market performance during the trading week. However, during trading on Thursday, we have seen the stock price for the Nasdaq turn around. According to finance.yahoo.com, there does not seem to be any particular news driving this stock turn around. Nasdaq Price Chart Read next: Tech Stocks Plunging!? Trade Desk Earnings Announcement Pushes Tech Giant Stock Down, Russian Ruble Strengthening and Ford Motor Co.  Sources: slate.com, poundsterlinglive.com, finance.yahoo.com

Fear of a recession may be one of the reasons pushing risky asset prices lower. Yesterday alone, the Dow Jones fell 3.57 percent and the S&P 500 fell 4.04 percent, its biggest one-day drop since June 2020. The Nasdaq Composite was off 4.73 percent. The U.S. economy is mainly spinning thanks to consumption and largely living on credit Another turnaround on Wall Street came after the release of the results of U.S. big-box retail chains such as Wal-Mart and Target. The share price of the former fell by almost 25 percent from its April peak, and the latter by about 40 percent. Why is this important? The U.S. economy is mainly spinning thanks to consumption and largely living on credit. Decrease in consumption by higher inflation, as shown by the results of companies and their comments to the results, can therefore be a wake-up call that the US economy will no longer grow so rapidly. As a result, there has been an even greater fear of recession, which in the current inflationary environment brings to mind the stagflation of the 70s-80s in the United States. Add to that rising lending rates through interest rate hikes, broken supply chains and an expensive U.S. dollar eroding export profits. According to some, this is the perfect set of factors that could push the market further into the embrace of a waking bear market. Investors also might be looking for the point at which they believe the dollar and U.S. bonds have priced in a full cycle of rate hikes before the Fed In a more optimistic scenario, however, they may predict that inflation will peak in the second or third quarter of this year and then begin to decline starting in the fourth quarter of 2022. At that point, consumers could breathe a sigh of relief as prices would still rise, but no longer as fast as before. The same could be true for the stock market, which statistically, in cycles of interest rate hikes, seemed to create corrections in the first reaction and then continued earlier trends. Investors also might be looking for the point at which they believe the dollar and U.S. bonds have priced in a full cycle of rate hikes before the Fed. At that point, they could switch from the dollar to bonds or stocks, which could also put the brakes on the declines currently seen. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM Since the beginning of the year alone, the Nasdaq index has fallen by 27 percent, the S&P 500 by more than 18 percent, and the Dow Jones by less than 15 percent. U.S. 10-year bonds have shrunk by 8 percent, and gold has fallen by 0.5 percent. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has gained about 8 percent. This could quite clearly show that the cash phase of the cycle may be underway. It may be followed, according to theory, by the bond phase of the cycle and only the equity phase of the cycle. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Summary: Despite growing confidence in the stock market, major indices are struggling to keep up with the volatile market. The ECBs turn to a hawkish attitude could lead toward a stronger Euro. Nasdaq loses value during the trading day on Thursday Equity stocks attempted to rebound during trading on Thursday after a sell-off. The sell off came as market participants grew concerned about whether the Fed’s continuous hawkish attitude could cause a slow down in the U.S economy. In general the investor sell-off attitude seems to be easing somewhat, however markets still remain volatile. NASDAQ Price Chart Read next: Altcoins: What Is PancakeSwap (CAKE)? A Deeper Look Into The PancakeSwap Platform| FXMAG.COM European Central Banks possible tightening of monetary policy During trading on Thursday the Euro saw some strengthening based on the hopes of a more hawkish European Central Bank (ECB) in the summer. As the European Central Bank looks at a 50bps hike in interest rates this July, investor confidence is starting to restore in the Euro. The Euro showed particular strength against the pound sterling, which simultaneously pushed back their next interest rate hike. Sources: pounsterlinglive.com, finance.yahoo.com Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

Summary: Nasdaq rises in the wake of Fed meeting minutes Nasdaq gains 1.5% on Wednesday On Wednesday the Federal Reserve's May meeting minutes confirmed that the Fed officials are keeping a 50bps interest hike on the table for the next few meetings. This pushed U.S stocks higher after a volatile day on the market, the Fed has seemingly instilled investors with confidence that they will try and regain control of the current rising prices. Investors have gotten a taste of the effect rising prices have had on company earnings across the board, the Feds commitment to try and reign in the rising prices is driving the Nasdaq and other indices upwards. IXIC Price Chart Read next: (TWTR) Twitter Shareholders Gathering To Discuss Elon Musk Twitter Purchase  Sources: finance.yahoo.com

Summary: Volatile month for the US stock market. The easing of lockdowns will benefit not only China’s economy but economies that rely on China for trading, such as the NZD. Read next: EuroZone Inflation Exceeds Market Expectations (EUR/USD) (EUR/GBP), New Zealand Economy Will Benefit From China’s Lockdown Easing (GBP/NZD), GBP Bullish (GBP/USD)  The NASDAQ is reflecting the volatility of the financial markets. The NASDAQ is one of the indexes that has been caught in volatile trading on Tuesday. During trading on Tuesday, the NASDAQ turned positive, however, the positive turn was short-lived for the index. Despite managing to recover some of the losses seen this month, May has been a volatile month for the stock markets, concerns over decade-high inflation and fears that the hawkish Federal reserve’s moves to fight rising prices through raising interest rates may tip the US economy into a recession. NASDAQ Price Chart New Zealand Dollar The NZD benefitted of Monday in the wake of China’s easing of COVID-19 lockdowns, strengthening against the Pound Sterling and other currencies. The easing of lockdowns will benefit not only China’s economy but economies that rely on China for trading, New Zealand's economy is one of those who will benefit. The strengthening of China's Renminbi has also offered support to the NZD/USD currency pair, the US Dollar is struggling at the moment, and therefore, the recovery of the NZD has been noticeable. Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com

Summary:  The last test of the highly anticipated Ethereum merge was a success. The real merge has now been scheduled for either the 15th or 16th of September. Whereas the latter was a success, Coinbase’s Q2 result was arguably not a success compared to the market’s consensus. The Ethereum merge has been scheduled following the final test On Thursday, the final public test of the highly anticipated Ethereum merge occurred successfully as the test network known as Görli successfully adopted a proof-of-stake framework. One day later, the developers of Ethereum announced that the real merge is likely to take place on either the 15th or 16th of September next month. This is in line with what we estimated earlier this month, assigning a 95% chance of a merge in September in case Görli occurred flawlessly, as it did. This means that one of the most significant events in the history of crypto is only around a month away. It seems that traders are likewise anticipating the merge. Ethereum hit a local high against Bitcoin since January of 0.0816 (ETHBTC) this weekend alongside hitting a new 3-month high in dollar terms of over $2,000. This is rather remarkable because Ethereum has previously decreased against Bitcoin during bear markets with Bitcoin behaving somewhat as a safe haven within the highly speculative crypto market. At present, the pair trades at 0.0793. Coinbase releases Q2 2022 result On Tuesday, the largest US-based crypto exchange NASDAQ-listed Coinbase reported its second quarter result. The result was, however, not encouraging for shareholders. The company’s revenue declined by nearly 64% compared to the same quarter last year, while the company noted a loss accurately exceeding $1bn. Yet, $377mn of that was caused by depreciating its crypto holdings, with the latter taking a severe hit during the quarter. Coinbase laid off around 18% of its workforce in Q2 while enforcing a hiring freeze. The major issue for Coinbase in Q2 and not least going forward is the fact that its retail trading has decreased substantially, although its volume from institutional clients is fairly more stable. The challenge with the latter is that Coinbase earns significantly less on institutional rather than retail trading. As a consequence, institutional clients’ volume is over three times as much but pays overall 15 times less in trading fees than retail clients. So, unless retail trading surges, the fundamental of Coinbase is likely not improving. Making matters worse, Coinbase is encountering further competition on retail trading from, for instance, Robinhood, potentially over time pushing Coinbase’s high margins on retail trading down. Source: Coinbase Global, Inc. Source: Coinbase Global, Inc. Alongside 21 other companies, Coinbase is a part of our Crypto & Blockchain equity basket for investors wanting to get exposure to the crypto market through crypto-related companies (the basket should not be considered as a trade recommendation, only as an inspirational list). Bitcoin/USD - Source: Saxo Group Ethereum/USD - Source: Saxo Group Source: Crypto Weekly: Ethereum, it is time to merge

TL;DR Lisk is an open-source blockchain application platform that improves Web3 accessibility for developers and users. It offers a simple-to-use software development kit (SDK) that enables developers to build blockchain applications using JavaScript, one of the most widely used programming languages. Lisk is designed to eventually allow developers to deploy sidechains onto their network, so that their blockchain applications can scale while staying connected to the wider Lisk ecosystem.   Introduction One of the major challenges blockchain technology faces in the Web3 era is the lack of accessibility. Different blockchains use a variety of programming languages, which makes it difficult for developers to build applications that can be flexibly used across multiple platforms. What is Lisk? Lisk is an open-source, layer-1 blockchain application platform that aims to help projects onboard users into the crypto and Web3 space. Through its easy-to-use SDK, developers can build scalable blockchain applications easily. The metaverse projects, DAOs, NFT marketplaces, and many other applications they create can also offer faster transaction speed at lower fees for users.   How does Lisk work? Lisk was founded in 2016 by Max Kordek and Oliver Beddows. It focuses on improving Web3 accessibility for developers and users. Some of Lisk’s main features include:  Delegated Proof of Stake (DPoS) Lisk uses the Delegated Proof of Stake (DPoS) consensus algorithm to secure the blockchain. DPoS is considered a more efficient and democratic version of the popular Proof of Stake (PoS) mechanism. It allows validators to outsource the block validation through a voting system. On the Lisk blockchain, voters can use their LSK tokens to vote for a maximum of 10 delegators to secure the network on their behalf and share the LSK rewards among them. Generally, a delegator with more votes is more likely to be selected to generate the subsequent blocks. Since the process is distributed among 100+ delegated validators, Lisk can operate in a fairly decentralized manner. It also enables the network to achieve scalability and increase its transactions per second (TPS) rate.  The Lisk SDK A unique feature of Lisk is its software development kit based on JavaScript, one of the world’s most widely-used programming languages. Popular blockchain networks often rely on different languages. For example, Bitcoin (BTC) uses C++, while Ethereum is built on Solidity. Unless they have a strong command of several languages, it can be challenging for developers to interact with different blockchains.  Lisk’s solution to this is an open-source and modular SDK on JavaScript to make blockchain and Web3 universally accessible to a broader range of developers. Using a very common programming language removes the hurdle for those new to building blockchain applications. Newcomers can start building using JavaScript and TypeScript immediately, without having to invest time and effort in learning blockchain-specific languages.  Furthermore, after the launch of the prospective Lisk Platform, developers will be able to leverage the Lisk SDK to implement their applications on sidechains instead of smart contracts. The sidechains’ interoperability will enhance scaling and keep transaction fees minimal. The Lisk SDK is also expected to support the development of NFTs, P2P, and Proof-of-Authority (PoA) modules. Scalable sidechains To facilitate interoperability between all application-specific blockchains in the network, Lisk is building the Lisk Platform, which is designed to allow developers to build scalable applications with greater autonomy and flexibility on sidechains. Sidechains are separate blockchains that connect to the main chain. On Lisk, developers will be able to deploy their own sidechains to scale their blockchain applications and offer lower transaction fees and greater TPS. Sidechains will communicate with one another directly through cross-chain messages. This interoperability is expected to ensure smooth asset exchange between sidechains and the main Lisk blockchain.  The Lisk team is working on expanding its ecosystem by facilitating interoperability with other layer-1 blockchains and protocols, such as Ethereum (ETH), Polkadot (DOT), and Cosmos (ATOM). The vision is for users to benefit from a growing ecosystem of apps interconnected through Lisk bridges.   What is LSK? Lisk (LSK) is the native cryptocurrency and utility token of Lisk. It is used to pay transaction fees and reward delegators on the network. LSK holders can also use the token to secure the Lisk network through DPoS. They can stake their LSK tokens in the Lisk Desktop wallet to vote or delegate, and the tokens will be locked for as long as the user is performing either of these roles.  LSK’s utility is expected to grow, with more use cases emerging as the Lisk network achieves interoperability with other blockchains. For example, LSK could be used for registering blockchain applications or transferring messages between different applications.    How to buy LSK on Binance? You can buy the Lisk token (LSK) on cryptocurrency exchanges like Binance.  1. Log in to your Binance account and click [Trade] - [Spot]. 2. Search “LSK” to see the available trading pairs. We’ll use LSK/BUSD as an example. 3. Go to the [Spot] box and enter the amount of LSK to buy. In this example, we will use a Market Order. Click [Buy LSK] and the purchased tokens will be credited to your Spot Wallet. Closing thoughts Many believe that one of the key components to achieving the mass adoption of Web3 is to make blockchain technology more widely accessible. With projects like Lisk, more developers can build blockchain applications easily using coding languages they’re already familiar with. At the same time, users can benefit from a growing ecosystem of interconnected applications with faster transactions at lower fees. Source: What Is Lisk (LSK)?

TL;DR   Livepeer is a decentralized video protocol built on the Ethereum blockchain. It was designed for anyone to seamlessly integrate video content into applications in a decentralized manner and at a fraction of the cost of traditional solutions. Decentralization of video processing is accomplished by distributing the transcoding process to a network of node operators. Transcoding is an essential step in ensuring smooth delivery of video content to end users. It involves taking raw video files and converting them to the optimal state for each end user, based on factors such as device screen size or internet connection. Livepeer processes video content reliably and inexpensively using blockchain technology that utilizes game theory, cryptoeconomic incentives, and smart contracts to foster positive stakeholder interactions. Its native asset, the Livepeer token (LPT), is used to coordinate and distribute video processing tasks among network participants securely and reliably.    Introduction   With the increasing reliance on social media, especially amid the recent pandemic, as well as the massive growth of the creator economy, video-related content used more than 82% of the internet’s bandwidth in 2021.  The Livepeer network, powered by thousands of distributed nodes, gives video app developers and creators access to a secure, high-quality, affordable encoding architecture without a hefty price tag. Since its inception in 2017, the Livepeer network has processed over 150 million minutes of video.   How does Livepeer work?   Livepeer, built on Ethereum, is essentially a network that connects anyone seeking video processing with suppliers that provide this service. It uses its native token, LPT, to incentivize network participants to keep this video transcoding process reliable, secure, and affordable compared to current centralized solutions. There are two main stakeholders in the Livepeer network: orchestrators and delegators.  Orchestrators Anyone who owns video mining equipment can stake their LPT and perform video processing work on the Livepeer network. In exchange for providing this service, they receive a share of the video processing fee in the form of LPT and ETH. These network participants are called orchestrators.  Delegators Those who don’t have access to video mining tools or video processing experience can still participate in the network by delegating or assigning their LPT to a node operator with the right tools and expertise to process video via the Livepeer Explorer. These network participants are called delegators.   What is LPT? The network’s native asset, the Livepeer token (LPT), is an ERC-20 token used to provide security, distribute video processing tasks among network participants, and incentivize their active participation in the various roles on the Livepeer network. The more LPT tokens are committed to the network’s functioning, the more stable, secure, and robust it becomes.   Orchestrators are allocated work according to the amount of LPT they have staked — their own or those of delegators — along with their geographical location and reliability. Since more delegated tokens lead to more work, and more work equals more rewards, orchestrators compete to attract as many delegators as possible. At the end of each round, i.e. end of every day, the Livepeer protocol mints new Livepeer tokens according to a designated inflation rate. Livepeer is a “stake-based” protocol, which means rewards are allocated to each participating user in proportion to their contribution. Participants who have been active in a given round — either by running nodes or by staking tokens — receive a proportionate amount of the issued reward. Those who did not actively participate in a given round do not receive these rewards.  Orchestrators also earn an added benefit: they receive a portion of their delegators’ rewards as a commission for running the decentralized infrastructure.  With this system, active participants can grow their stake in the network. Meanwhile, transcoding rights of inactive users shrink with every round in which they do not participate. In other words, a larger LPT stake results in more allocated work, ultimately leading to more rewards.  The inflation rate used to determine the size of the issued rewards also motivates users to be active. The percentage of new LPT in each compensation round is determined by how many total LPT are committed to the network’s successful functioning. The higher this proportion, the lower the inflation rate and the more value existing tokens will retain. Thus, token holders are naturally motivated to stake more to earn more.   How to buy LPT on Binance?   You can buy LPT on cryptocurrency exchanges like Binance.  1. Log in to your Binance account and go to [Trade] -> [Spot].  2. Type “LPT” on the search bar to see the available trading pairs. We will use LPT/BUSD as an example. 3. Go to the [Spot] box and enter the amount of LPT you want to buy. In this example, we will use a Market order. Click [Buy LPT] to confirm your order, and the purchased LPT will be credited to your Spot Wallet. Closing thoughts Livepeer has designed a solution to delegate video processing tasks to reliable parties. With a  decentralized video protocol, Web3 projects and companies can avoid high, arbitrary video processing fees and censorship to provide better video content for their audiences.   Source: What Is Livepeer (LPT)?

Michael Burry is a well-known US investor who became famous for betting on the collapse of the US real estate market and the burst of the bubble in 2008. On 15 August, he filed a 13F form with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), revealing the positions of his fund, Scion Asset Management. To the surprise of many, the investment portfolio turned out to be almost completely empty. Burry held shares worth 165 million at the end of the first quarter. These included companies such as Google, Meta and Stellantis. However, the latest report filed with the regulator revealed that all of it had been sold and the glorified investor's only long position is in GeoGroup, a company involved in running private prisons, but the value of the position is negligible at just under $3.31 million. The investor has recently been posting a number of tweets suggesting the end of the bear market rally. This has sent shock waves across the market, as the investment manager has usually been successful in predicting the market moves, famous for his incisiveness. If there were to be large declines in the broad traditional market, e.g. equities, what could this mean for crypto? The correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq 100 seems to be apparent, but after the last all-time high reading of 0.84 in May, it dropped to around 0.48 at the end of June. What is unfortunate, however, is that the correlation has been rising with subsequent waves of declines and peaked near local lows. If the stock market were to actually experience a crash, a strong reaction from the crypto market can be expected. The recent increase in correlation may be due to the increasing participation of token trading institutions. Michael Burry's attitude was addressed by Mati Greenspan CEO of Quantum Economic, stating that predicting the timing and scale of a crash is almost impossible. "Predicting a stock crash is a lot like predicting an earthquake. You know one will happen every so often but you can never tell exactly when or how severe it will be" - Greenspan said. On the Conotoxia MT5 platform, BTC is seeing its fourth day of decline, losing more than 0.7% at 10:30 GMT+3, while ETH is gaining less than 0.3%, drawing its first upward candle in three days. Rafał Tworkowski, Junior Market Analyst, Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.   Source: Michael Burry closed almost all his positions - what could another stock market crash mean for crypto?

The equity rally in the US didn’t pick up momentum after the Federal Reserve (Fed) released its latest meeting minutes, which sounded more hawkish-than-expected, or more hawkish-than-what-was-needed-to-give-another-boost to the US stock markets. The biggest take was that the Fed will continue tightening its policy until it sees that inflation is ‘firmly on path back to 2%’. The S&P500 fell 0.72% as Nasdaq gave back 1.20%, although the jump in the US 2-year yield was relatively soft, and the Fed funds futures scaled back the expectation of a 75 bp hike in the next meeting. Crude price completed an ABCD pattern, and it is more likely than not we see the price rebound to the $100 level in the medium run. In China, Tencent announced its first ever revenue drop as government crackdown continued taking a toll on its sales, and the pound couldn’t gain even after the above 10% inflation data boosted the Bank of England (BoE) hawks and the call fall steeper rate hikes to tame inflation in the UK. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:28 As expected, Fed minutes were more hawkish-than-expected 3:39 Crude oil has more chance to rebound than to fall 6:02 Tencent posts first-ever revenue drop 7:14 Apple extends gains, but technicals warn of correction 8:38 Pound unable to extend gains despite rising Fed hawks’ voices Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Fed #FOMC #minutes #USD #GBP #inflation #Tencent #Alibaba #earnings #crude #oil #natural #gas #coal #futures #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Since the beginning of July, the crypto market seemed to be on the rise. The largest tokens (BTC and ETH) at the local peak, gained around 35% and 101% respectively. However, today at 11:30 GMT+3 BTC is losing around 7.3% and ETH around 8%. Today, ETH broke through its price channel and the 20-day moving average. If the price does not return to the channel in the next couple of days, we will be able to say that a possible reversal of the short-term trend we mentioned in previous articles has taken place. Especially if this is confirmed by indicators such as the Wilder directional indicator. BTC has also moved far out of its price channel and is currently below the 10, 20 and 50-day moving averages. The directional indicator has already shown a potential trend reversal and the MACD is approaching the negative zone. Today on the Conotoxia MT5 platform at 11:00 GMT+3, Filecoin (FIL) is down the most. It is experiencing a loss of almost 18%. According to Coinmarketcap, it has a capitalisation of almost $1.8 billion and a daily volume of over $511 million. Filecoin was launched in 2020 to decentralise data storage, providing an alternative to industry giants such as Amazon and Alibaba at a cost reduction of almost 99%. The project's network connects storage providers with customers looking for a place to keep their data. Those offering their storage from laptops to server rooms after verifying data integrity and security can obtain a FIL token as a reward. This creates a highly diversified and low-cost database network. However, the characteristics of the project are inherently inflationary, unlike BTC. The declines described are attributed to a broad market correction, the exit of 'big money' and growing pessimism about the increasing supply of FIL tokens. Rafał Tworkowski, Junior Market Analyst, Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.   Source: The crypto market falls as profits are realised

The average bitcoin payment fee recently fell below $1 for the first time in years. Transaction fees are needed to enable crypto intermediaries to operate, but they are hampering the adoption of payment solutions, affecting small payments in particular. Because the network is expensive to maintain due to its energy-intensive nature, commissions have been able to shoot up many times, for example, Ethereum commissions during the NFT hype. This is even more painful for transfers of small sums. This is why new technological solutions are so important. Here comes ethereum's Merge and payment solutions for bitcoin (Lightning Network and Taproot overlays), which are already revolutionising the world of crypto payments. They allow settlements to be faster, less energy-intensive and less expensive. The current average transaction fee for BTC payments has fallen below $0.825 - the lowest since 13 June 2020, ETH below $0.64, and is likely to be even cheaper. Their decline is not only a reason for the ever-improving technology, but also the recent crash of tokens, NFTs and an increase in the ease of mining in the long term. However, current energy and cryptocurrency prices may cause a short-term decline in mining activity. Many have already suspended operations or exited the crypto world. This can be seen in particular through the massive sale of mining rigs and used computer hardware (especially graphics cards). ETH, BTC and most tokens seemed to continue their declines. ETH and BTC prices are below the price channel and in the absence of a return above its bottom line, we can probably already speak of a short-term trend reversal. ETH has found its support on the 50-day moving average for now, while BTC has already crossed it. Moreover, the technical indicators (RSI, MACD and ADX) do not indicate a reversal of the short-term trend either. Declines in the major stock market indexes, hawkish announcements from the FED and further pessimistic data from the economy seem to be putting a lot of pressure on crypto. RafaÅ‚ Tworkowski, Junior Market Analyst, Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.   Source: BTC and ETH payments getting cheaper. Will Cryptocurrencies experience further declines?

Summary:  On Friday, crypto long positions worth north of $500mn were liquidated, as fatigue spread in the crypto market. Not helping was speculation that exchanges may be forced to censor certain transactions on Ethereum in the future. Speaking of transactions, the demand for them on Bitcoin and Ethereum has decreased significantly, weakening the fundamentals of particularly Ethereum. Traders standing in line to be liquidated The crypto market, notably Ethereum, recovered partially in July and August until last week. From a low of 17,600 (BTCUSD) and 880 (ETHUSD) in June, Bitcoin and Ethereum surged to a local high of 25,200 and 2,030 on the 15th and 14th of August, respectively. Following new local highs, the market was seemingly becoming exhausted last week. Since then, Bitcoin has plunged by 15.6% to 21,270, whereas the Ethereum price has declined by 23.3% to 1,565. On mainly Friday, crypto derivative exchanges saw red. On this day, long positions were liquidated worth a combined $562mn in 24 hours. This is almost as much as the day in June, when Celsius halted withdrawals, even though the market movement to the downside was larger in June. This means that the crypto market has been extremely leveraged to ride the uptrend the past month and that party came to a halt on Friday. It seems that traders have particularly leveraged Ethereum trades going into the merge. Can exchanges censor certain Ethereum transactions? Two weeks ago, the US sanctioned the most used mixer on the Ethereum network called Tornado Cash. The latter has often been linked to money laundering; however, it was frequently used by private individuals to engage with the Ethereum network privately. The Tornado Cash protocol cannot by default be shut down, since it is a smart contract, so the sanctions involve that no US person or entity is allowed to engage with transactions originating from Tornado Cash. Afterward, speculation arose about what could possibly be next in line to be sanctioned. The ultimate sanction could be to censor certain Ethereum transactions, thus possibly shutting down the Tornado Cash protocol for good. At the moment, it would not be possible for governments to directly censor such transactions, however, it might be possible for them, as soon as Ethereum adopts proof-of-stake instead of a proof-of-work framework in the middle of September, known as the merge. This is because the majority of the Ether staked, hence Ether used to verify transactions, is done through exchanges or other intermediaries by clients handing over their Ether to these companies for them to verify transactions on Ethereum. For instance, Coinbase handles close to 15% of the total amount of Ether staked. Governments can technically make Coinbase adhere to such sanctions by ensuring it does not verify transactions related to Tornado Cash on a network level. Without going into too many details, in our opinion, it is very unlikely that this will occur, both from a societal and technical point of view. Yet, if it in reality occurs, then everything in the industry is at risk since the main selling proposition is full decentralization without intermediaries. In case certain transactions are ruled out from the network, we need to look ourselves in the mirror and ask if this industry has then anything to offer at all. The speculation in this matter did arguably contribute negatively to the price development of Ethereum in the last week. Brian Armstrong, Coinbase’s co-founder and CEO, commented on this on Twitter last week. Here, he said that Coinbase would possibly exit its staking operations if governments came to enforce the sanction of transactions on-chain, as Armstrong stated, “to focus on the bigger picture” by keeping Ethereum decentralized. If all staking providers do this, then it will presumably not be a problem, as the network will be kept online by solo stakers. When prices drop, fees follow suit For the majority of the year, the crypto prices have been on a downward trajectory. Transaction fees paid on particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum have followed suit. In November last year, Bitcoin generated around $500,000 - $1mn in fees daily, while Ethereum set at around $50mn - $80mn in transaction fees daily. Now, Bitcoin averages around $150,000 - $300,000 daily, while Ethereum sits at around $2mn - $3mn daily. This emphasizes that most activity on Bitcoin but primarily Ethereum is highly speculative and strictly linked to the prices of cryptocurrencies. Source: Token Terminal For Bitcoin, there are no direct consequences of lower total transaction fees in the near term. However, it might have consequences in the next decades, since the network might not be able to sufficiently compensate miners. For Ethereum, the lower transaction fees result in less Ether burned, effectively meaning less is removed from the supply. This makes the fundamentals of Ethereum weaker. For instance, Ethereum has for the past year burned 4.71 Ether per minute from transaction fees, whereas it has only managed to burn 0.89 Ether per minute in the past 30 days. Bitcoin/USD - Source: Saxo Group Ethereum/USD - Source: Saxo Group   Source: Crypto Weekly: Leverage is the language of crypto

According to Coinmarketcap data, the total capitalization of cryptocurrencies has fallen to nearly $1 trillion, showing a major shift in sentiment among traders and investors in recent days. The last time market capitalization was at this level was in late July. The possible trend reversal does not only apply to cryptocurrencies. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 have fallen from their local highs of August 16 by 5.7% and 3.8%, respectively. This is a significant change for such large indexes. Interest rates on U.S. 5-year Treasury bonds, after recording a local low of 2.55% on August 1, have risen to 3.17% in recent weeks, as Fed policymakers' statements proved more hawkish than expected. These are potential signs of a deteriorating outlook again, which should not be ignored. A chart of the Crypto Fear & Greed Index may show a decline in crypto market sentiment and an increase in investor fear. As recently as last week, the index showed a reading of 44, and now it is 28 points. Despite the partial decrease in the correlation between bitcoin and the S&P 500, it still seems to be high. Especially since it has historically risen during crashes - the last peak in the correlation was reached in mid-May, when both markets were down. BTC and ETH, despite finding support at $20,700 and $25,300, respectively, could be more exposed to the downside due to deteriorating economic data and market sentiment.  On the Conotoxia MT5 platform as of 12:00 GMT+3, one of the strongest falling tokens is EOS, which is losing nearly 9% after a 7-day gain of 48%. EOS is the native token of the EOSIO network. In practice, the project provides blockchain developers with a set of necessary tools and services to build and scale decentralized applications. The project's first whitepaper was released in 2017, and the team conducted an ICO, securing more than $4 billion in investment. It was one of the largest crowdfunding events in the history of cryptocurrencies.   Rafał Tworkowski, Junior Market Analyst, Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Source: Does data signal more short-term declines in the crypto market?

Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Crypto Industry News: Since last Friday, August 19, there has been an increased amount of liquidations which has had a key impact on the cryptocurrency market. Since then, bitcoin (BTC) has depreciated by more than 10%. The market capitalization of all digital assets fell below the $ 1 trillion mark again. At the time of writing this article, the rate of the first cryptocurrency is $ 21,000. This means a slight decrease during the day by almost 1%, although bitcoin is losing 12.24% of its value over the last week. Bitcoin's market cap is currently over $406 billion. However, despite the return of bearish dominance and hence the decline in rates, interest in long BTC positions remains at the highest levels in 12 months. Technical Market Outlook: The BTC/USD pair has been seen testing the lower channel line around the level of $21,000 as the bears are getting ready do break out below the lower channel line soon. The momentum is still weak and negative on the H4 time frame chart, bounces are shallow and the market is clearly controlled by bears that might accelerate the sell-off and test the swing low seen at the level of $17,600 again. The nearest technical resistance is located at the level of $22,410. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $22,059 WR2 - $21,713 WR1 - $21,486 Weekly Pivot - $21,368 WS1 - $21,140 WS2 - $21,022 WS3 - $20,677 Trading Outlook: The down trend on the H4, Daily and Weekly time frames continues without any indication of a trend termination or reversal. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Bitcoin for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The key long term technical support at the psychological level of $20,000 had been violated, the new swing low was made at $17,600 and if this level is violated, then the next long-term target for bulls is seen at $13,712. On the other hand, the gamechanging level for bulls is located at $25,367 and it must be clearly violated for a valid breakout. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/289563 Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/289563 Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for August 23, 2022 Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/289563

Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results.The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.   Black line -resistance For a 3rd day Bitcoin price has made no real progress. After the sharp sell off from $24,000 to $20,800 Bitcoin has paused the decline and price is moving sideways. Bottoms are not formed in this way and that is why I give very little chances that we have seen the low in Bitcoin price. Bitcoin remains vulnerable to new lows below $17,600 as long as price is below the major resistance trend line. Bitcoin remains in a sideways price action with a slight positive slope. Bitcoin buyers will get another chance to buy Bitcoin at lower levels. This remains our key scenario.   Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Bitcoin remains for a third day around $21,300  

Relevance up to 09:00 2022-08-25 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. According to the latest data on the outflow of the exchange from Arcane Research, crypto holders are not interested in trading their tokens and, instead, prefer to keep their BTC safe on cold wallets. The events in the crypto market in 2022 caused many to rethink their risk management practices as the collapse of decentralized finance protocols and bankrupt centralized finance platforms exposed the truth that there is no privacy, no keys, no cryptocurrencies. As a result of blocking or loss of funds, bitcoin holders began to withdraw their capital from exchanges at an astounding rate. According to a report published by Arcane Research, deposits began to flow away from both crypto exchanges and lenders. Arcane Research cited the collapse of Terra Luna. This includes the now-defunct crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital, crypto lender Celsius, and crypto brokerage Voyager, which are now in bankruptcy. As these firms collapsed, client funds were blocked and could not be withdrawn, and it is becoming increasingly likely that this will be a complete loss for many of the participants. Because of this, years spent building trust in exchanges and lending platforms have evaporated, and crypto holders have begun withdrawing their funds en masse from both crypto exchanges and lenders. The net outflow from exchanges in June was 119,000 bitcoins. This was the highest outflow since November 2020. July also saw a massive outflow, with 96,000 bitcoins being withdrawn from exchanges. The outflow of funds from the exchange continued in August, and 65,000 bitcoins were withdrawn in the first 22 days of the month. As a result of the outflow, the number of bitcoins held on exchanges is now at its lowest level since July 2018.Investors are also more reluctant to invest in cryptocurrency investment products, as the latest report from Coinshares shows that the outflow of funds from digital asset investment products was $8.7 million for the week. Overall, while crypto holders continue to hold on to their beliefs about the future of the asset class, they are reluctant to trust others to hold their tokens and have instead reverted to the original crypto idea of being their own bank. Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Bitcoin holders are leaving crypto exchanges en masse

Relevance up to 17:00 2022-08-26 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Red line- resistance trend line Blue lines- trading range Green line- short-term support trend line Since the recent low on August 21st around $1,524, Ethereum bounced towards $1,665 but remains trapped inside a trading range with no real progress. The sharp decline from $2,030 ended at $1,524 but price shows no sign of strength for a big bounce higher. Short-term support is found at $1,630, by the green upward sloping trend line. Resistance is at $1,665 by the upper boundary of the trading range. Ethereum is expected to make another move lower at least towards $1,550.I do not expect Ethereum to move higher than $1,750 at this point in time.   Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Ethereum continues moving sideways

Relevance up to 16:00 2022-08-25 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Ethereum rebounded in the short term but the current growth could be short-lived. After its amazing sell-off, the altcoin could try to recover. ETH/USD increased by 9.44% from Monday's low of 1,529 to yesterday's high of 1,673. It was trading at 1,644 at the time of writing. Ethereum has gone up by 1.25% in the last 24 hours but it has been down by 10.82% in the last 7 days. Bitcoin tried to rebound, that's why ETH/USD turned to the upside. ETH/USD Temporary Rebound? ETH/USD found support right above the 50% (1,519) retracement level and now has managed to pass above the 38.2% (1,640) retracement level. Still, as long as it stays under the downtrend line, the bias remains bearish. Also, the weekly pivot point of 1,718 represents an upside obstacle. Only a valid breakout through the downtrend line and above 23.6% (1,790) could announce that the downside movement ended. ETH/USD Forecast Testing and retesting the pivot point and the downtrend line and registering only fasle breakouts could announce a new sell-off. A larger downside movement and a great short opportunity could appear only after a valid breakdown below the 50% (1,519) retracement level.   Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Ethereum struggling to rebound

Nvidia earnings released after the market close were in line with the downside-adjusted market expectations, but the current quarter sales forecast fell $1 billion short of expectations. Nvidia stock dived 4.5% in the afterhours trading, and brought forward the pricing of the ‘end of the chip shortage’. But, it is still too early to call the end of the rare chips, as chips for industrial use, cars and machineries remain difficult to find. Here is, as promised, more on that subject: https://medium.com/swissquote-educati... Elsewhere, stocks were flat yesterday. Even though the US futures are up this morning, the direction remains unclear, and conviction low before the much-expected Jerome Powell speech at the Jackson Hole meeting in the coming hours. The dollar is off the early-week peak, gold and Bitcoin consolidate, while crude oil is preparing to test the 200-DMA to the upside. Hence, energy stocks extend gains along with nat gas and nuclear stocks! Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:27 Nvidia’s sales forecast falls $1 billion short of expectations! 1:40 Is the chip shortage over yet? 2:40 Market update 3:56 Crude up, oil, nat gas & nuclear stocks race to the top 6:46 USD softer, EUR firmer before ECB minutes 8:00 Gold & Bitcoin traders await Powell speech for direction Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Nvidia #chip #shortage #Fed #Jerome #Powell #JacksonHole #enegry #crisis #crude #oil #natural #gas #nuclear #stocks #USD #EUR #ECB #minutes #XAU #Gold #Bitcoin #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH   Source: Nvidia upsets, again. But chip shortage is not over yet! | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote

Relevance up to 10:00 2022-08-30 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. The Ethereum Merge is one of the most anticipated events for the crypto community in 2022, with the end of the multi-year plan to shift to a Proof-of-Stake protocol now in sight. Alas, all technology-related things are not free from bugs. Earlier this week, Peter Szilagyi, an Ethereum software developer, tweeted that his team had found a regression that resulted in a corruptive state. In the later update, the developer explained the problem will likely affect those who are running the release in terms of corrupting their database and resulting in the loss of data. A solution to the problem was found after a day of work. The date of the Merge is confirmed. The Ethereum Foundation provided evidence that this latest bug had not derailed the planned launch of the Merge. On Wednesday, the Foundation posted a blog, saying that developers had officially confirmed September 6 as the transition date to a Proof-of-Stake protocol. This will be a two-step Merge: the Bellatrix stage and the Paris stage. The Bellatrix update will take place at 11:34 AM UTC on September 6. The Paris transition to Proof-of-Stake will occur between September 10 and September 20. These dates could change plus or minus five days due to shifts in block time and hash rate fluctuations.   Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Ethereum Merge coming soon

Relevance up to 10:00 2022-08-26 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Ethereum is on the eve of a key event in its history, but even this did not keep the altcoin from falling. The cryptocurrency fell along with the entire market and tested the support level at around $1500. ETH managed to stop the fall and realize a local bullish momentum, gaining 4.5% over the past day. However, the asset has lost 7% of capitalization over the past seven days. As of August 25, Ethereum reached $1700, but should this be regarded as the end of the correction? On the daily chart, we see the full viability of the altcoin's local bullish momentum. Ethereum formed four uncertain candles in a row, indicating a decrease in overall trading activity and an advantage for buyers. The altcoin has reached a key support zone, which is on par with the final part of the bullish cup and handle pattern. Keeping the bullish pattern intact indicates that strong buying sentiment continues, suggesting a continued rise in the price of ETH. Technically, Ethereum also looks poised for a renewed upward trend. The main metrics of the asset indicate the activation of buyers and the presence of bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index fell below 40 but then reversed upwards and crossed the 50 mark. The movement of the RSI directly indicates growing buying volumes and the presence of bullish momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator also confirms the price reversal and forms a bullish crossover near the oversold zone. The MACD also reverses and does not enter the red zone, which is an important bullish signal. Ethereum technical indicators indicate the final price reversal and the completion of the corrective movement. The main on-chain metrics also show an upward movement, which indicate a fundamental confirmation of the price rebound. The number of unique addresses on the ETH network has been showing strong growth since mid-August, suggesting an influx of new users and investments. This fact is confirmed by the growth in transaction volumes in the Ethereum network, which indicates a growing interest in the altcoin network. In other words, after a local correction, which was of a healing nature, Ethereum again attracts investors due to the fundamental factor for growth. In addition, there is an active accumulation of ETH coins by large buyers and miners. This creates a shortage of ether coins, which is especially valuable after inflation peaks in early August due to low fees on the ETH network. Active accumulation by long-term investors and a local decline in the overall trading activity in the Ethereum network had a positive impact on the cryptocurrency. According to the New supply on-chain indicator, the number of new coins is decreasing, creating an additional shortage of ETH in the open supply. However, despite all the positives, it is important to consider the correlation between ETH and BTC. In the coming days, there will be a Jerome Powell symposium, and statistics on unemployment and US GDP growth will also be published. This data can significantly affect Bitcoin, which, in turn, will pull Ethereum along with it. Therefore, if the medium-term prospects of ETH are not in doubt, then everything will depend on Bitcoin regarding the short-term situation.   Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Ethereum holds above $1500: altcoin correction completed?

After many years of announcements, the Ethereum Foundation yesterday set an official date for the complete transition to the Proof-of-Stake (POS) blockchain. As previously anticipated, there have been no delays, so the 'migration' is expected to begin as early as 6 September. The upgrade, known as 'Bellatrix', involves replacing ETH miners with validators, a kind of 'nodes' of the Proof-of-Stake system. They will be responsible for storing data, processing transactions and adding more chain blocks. Each validator is expected to hold a min. 32 ETH - at the current price, this is approximately $60000.  The Ethereum Foundation expects to activate the Beacon Chain as early as 6 September. This is expected to be the first test connection to begin the complete transition to POS. The activation is scheduled for 11:34:47 UTC. After the initial activation, the Terminal Total Difficulty (TTD) triggering the Merge is expected to reach a value of 5875000000000000000000000000000. This is nothing more than the level of synchronisation of the blockchain, which will become a Proof-of-Stake (POS) chain once the threshold value is exceeded. The timetable is for this to be achieved between 10 September and 20 September. According to CoinDesk, Ethereum developers estimate that this moment will occur on 15-16 September. Merge could have an impact on the crypto world and its prospects. Its scale seems to surpass the ETH split of 2016 and could point to new areas of growth such as a Proof-of-Stake solution, energy efficiency and much lower commissions.  In addition to its impact on the development of technology and ETH, the transformation may also affect other tokens that are heavily influenced by the changing ETH blockchain. We are talking primarily about LDO, ETC and OP tokens. These are projects to which an upgrade could give new meaning.  Additionally, yesterday Vitalik Butterin, founder of Ethereum, published a post on Twitter in which he stated, "People continue to underrate how often cryptocurrency payments are superior not even because of censorship resistance but just because they're so much more convenient,". By this, he seems to be referring to the fundamentals of crypto and the changes to come.   Rafał Tworkowski, Junior Market Analyst, Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Source: Merge receives official start date - what do you need to know?

Prelude to Powell uniformly hawkish... Source: shutterstock Macro Outlook Global Markets: US equities seem to be betting on the Fed’s Powell providing a lifeline, which seems like an optimistic point of view.  The S&P500 opened up and had a strong start before fading and then rallying hard into the close to finish up 1.41% on the day. The NASDAQ closed 1.67% higher. Equity futures are hedging this optimism a bit, indicating small declines at the open today. The latest optimism could reflect a slightly lower bond yield environment, but it seems outsized if that is indeed the case. 2Y US Treasury yields backed off only 2.4bp yesterday to take them to 3.366%. There was a bit more action at the back end of the curve, where 10Y UST yields fell 7.8bp, taking them to 3.026%. What caused that? Well, it wasn’t other Fed speakers in the run-up to Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole today. James Bullard, for example, noted that he favoured “front-loading”, and a year-end Fed funds rate of 3.75%-4%. Esther George noted that rates may have to go above 4%, and hadn’t moved into a restrictive range yet. Raphael Bostic said it was too soon to call peak inflation and was keeping an open mind on 50bp to 75bp next month, and Patrick Harker said rates needed to become restrictive (implying that they currently aren’t). So it is a fair bet that the Powell speech will take a similar turn today. If so, the most likely market reaction would be a rise in yields at both the front and back of the yield curve, a sell-off in equities and dollar strength as markets seem to have been positioning themselves for a more supportive set of comments.  In currency space, EURUSD had another go at moving higher, pushing up in the direction of 1.004 before retreating back below parity to finish almost unchanged from this time yesterday at 0.9970.  The AUD has made further gains though, rising to 0.6982 vs the dollar before settling a bit lower at 0.6972. Cable is looking a little stronger today too, and is up to 1.1829 now, while the JPY has pulled back down to below 137 and is now 136.57. The rest of the Asian FX pack also gained, led by the THB (helped by the passing of a budget yesterday) and the KRW (lifted by the BoK’s 25bp rate hike). G-7 Macro: It really all boils down to what Jerome Powell says today, and his speech will eclipse any of the other macro releases in all likelihood. We have already had some Tokyo CPI data this morning for August, and this shows annual inflation for the Japanese capital running at 2.9%, up from 2.5% in July. This suggests a similar  0.4pp increase in national headline inflation, which would take it to 3.0%YoY if so. The rise in the core rate of inflation excluding fresh food and energy was more muted, however, rising only 0.2pp to 1.4%YoY, which should provide the BoJ with the comfort it needs to leave policy settings unchanged. PCE inflation data from the US for July are out today. Look in particular at the core measure which the Fed is thought to be taking a bit more interest in than the headline. The current rate of PCE inflation is 6.8%YoY. It is 4.8% for the core rate. The core rate is expected to fall 0.1pp today. A flat reading would be a disappointment. University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations close out the macro calendar for the G-7 today.   What to look out for: Powell's speech at Jackson Hole Japan Tokyo CPI inflation (26 August) Singapore industrial production (26 August)  Thailand trade balance (26 August) Malaysia CPI inflation (26 August) Powell speech at Jackson Hole symposium (26 August) US University of Michigan sentiment and core PCE (26 August) Read this article on THINK TagsEmerging Markets Asia Pacific Asia Markets Asia Economics Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Samsung Securities, a company engaged in asset management, stock issuance and other financial services, has announced that it will set up its crypto exchange in 2023. The company is expected to start in Korea and later plans to expand to other markets.   The division mentioned above of the company is part of Samsung's large-scale structure, which is part of the so-called chaebols (giant Korean conglomerates). It operates in a wide range of sectors of the global economy - from producing weapons and smartphones to selling clothing or even providing financial services.   The "Securities" division already has experience in implementing crypto-related investment technologies and products. It established the first blockchain ETF (exchange-traded fund) in Asia in June, listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. It gives investors exposure to companies developing and investing in crypto technology.   The company is in talks with regulators and authorities to obtain the necessary approvals and licenses to establish the foundation of the exchange. Mirae Asset Securities and five other domestic companies are also planning to launch their investment platforms, but they do not have as much experience as the rival Samsung.   Earlier this month, the Securities division was one of three financial institutions in South Korea to partner with the country's largest exchange, Bithumb. The partnership meant Samsung Securities customers could indirectly invest in cryptocurrencies through the company's app.   Despite its inflexibility, chaebol has an established market position with enormous outreach and influence. For this reason, acquiring more clients on attractive terms may be easy for the firm, and it could be a significant competitor to Coinbase, Binance FTX or KuCoin.    South Korea seems to be aspiring to become a technology leader in the market. In early August, a "Korea Blockchain Week" event was held in Seoul, bringing together industry leaders, crypto regulation projects revealed are relatively lenient compared to those proposed by authorities in the US, and local companies are interested in further investments in blockchain technology in the DeFi and system infrastructure segments, among others. These plans could make South Korea a hub for the development of crypto technology and companies.  Market losses after recent days of sideways movement   On the Conotoxia MT5 platform, bitcoin and ethereum are losing 1% and 3%, respectively, today at 11 GMT+3. The leading tokens have been outside the previously drawn price channel for a week. The local possible support levels for BTC and ETH are $20700 and $1530, respectively. Their crossing could mean further declines. The continuation of the correction may be indicated by technical indicators such as the MACD, whose histogram for ETH has been falling steadily for a week and a half and now is near zero. In contrast, BTC reached the negative area a few days ago and seems to be falling lower and lower each consecutive day.    The EOS token seems to be losing the most heavily on the trading platform, recording a daily decline of 6.5% at 11:00 GMT+3. EOS is the native token of the EOSIO network, where the project provides blockchain developers with a set of essential tools and services for building and scaling decentralized applications (dApps). Rafał Tworkowski, Junior Market Analyst, Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service)   Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.   CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.   Source: Samsung plans to open a cryptocurrency exchange - will it succeed in dominating another sector? Market losses after several days of stabilization.

Relevance up to 14:00 2022-08-27 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Red line -resistance Green line - support In our previous analysis on Ethereum we warned traders that price was challenging important Fibonacci retracement level at $1,720. Price got rejected at the 38% Fibonacci retracement and broke below the upward sloping short-term support trend line. Ethereum has pulled back towards $1,620 forming a higher low. If bulls manage to break above recent highs at $1,720, then we could see Ethereum move higher towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Until then, price remains vulnerable to a move lower.   Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Ethereum rejected at Fibonacci resistance.

TL;DR BitTorrent is one of the largest decentralized peer-to-peer (P2P) file-sharing platforms. It’s powered by the Tron blockchain and BTTC, a TRC-10 utility token. BTTC is used to incentivize users on the network to provide their local computer resources for fast download speed and secure decentralized storage. The BitTorrent ecosystem also features a community-based live streaming platform, where content creators and viewers can earn and stake BTTC rewards.   Introduction In the 2000s, a common way to download music and movies over the Internet for free was using peer-to-peer (P2P) platforms like BitTorrent. Despite its popularity, one of the biggest challenges for users was the long hours it took to find and download their desired content, as most users weren’t incentivized to continue sharing files to the network once they received their content.    What is BitTorrent?  BitTorrent is one of the largest and longest-standing P2P platforms for data and file sharing. Initially released in 2001 when the Internet was just starting to catch on, BitTorrent revolutionized the way users download and obtain entertainment media and other large files and data.  Later in 2018, BitTorrent was acquired by the Tron Foundation. It relaunched as a decentralized P2P platform on the Tron blockchain, featuring various new tools and integrated a TRC-10 token, BitTorrent (BTTC), to incentivize its network participants.   How does BitTorrent work? The original BitTorrent platform was founded by Bram Cohen and David Harrison to facilitate the interchange of entertainment media, such as movies and music, among Internet users. BitTorrent does not store content on a single server. Instead, the files and data are distributed and hosted across their users’ computers. When a user downloads a file, they will receive pieces of that file (the torrent) from multiple providers within the network, after which they can remain connected to the BitTorrent network and “seed” the file to other users. Within the BitTorrent network, anyone with the complete file can become a seeder. The more seeders support a file, the quicker the download speed. However, there was little incentive for users to remain connected to the network after downloading a file. To enhance the file transferring speed, BitTorrent launched an upgraded version of the BitTorrent protocol that adopts the native cryptocurrency BTTC.   BitTorrent Speed Powered by blockchain technology, BitTorrent Speed enables faster download speed through an incentive system. To request a file, users (“service requestors”) need to submit a bid to specify how many BTTC tokens they are willing to offer to those seeding the file. Once the other parties (“service providers”) accept their bid, the service requestor needs to transfer the agreed-upon BTTC amount into escrow in a payment channel on the Tron blockchain. The BTTC will be credited to the providers after the file is transferred, and the transaction will be logged on the Tron blockchain. BitTorrent Speed uses BTTC to incentivize users to continue seeding files, which can significantly increase the file-sharing efficiency and accelerate the download speed. With more readily-available files on the P2P network, this could also benefit users that are still using the free BitTorrent client to download files from their peers.    BitTorrent File System (BTFS) Beyond file sharing, BitTorrent also features a decentralized P2P file storage system called the BitTorrent File System (BTFS). BTFS aims to offer a scalable, censorship-proof, and cost-effective alternative to the traditional centralized cloud storage.  The BTFS network consists of millions of BTFS nodes called renters and hosts. Renters are users who rent storage on the network and hosts are those that share their idle disk space for BTTC rewards. When renters use the BTFS service, their files will be sharded and distributed to multiple reputable hosts on the network. Through advanced encoding methods and file repairing technologies, BTFS can guarantee the confidentiality and security of the files, and users can access them conveniently without interruptions.   DLive In 2020, BitTorrent acquired DLive, a community-based blockchain live streaming platform, to offer more decentralized services in the BitTorrent ecosystem. In contrast to traditional platforms, both creators and viewers are rewarded for their contributions to the platform. Users who watch, chat, gift, and share content can also earn BTTC rewards. In addition, the BTTC can be staked to earn more rewards and to unlock premium services on DLive.   What is BTTC? BTTC is a TRC-10 utility token of the BitTorrent ecosystem, with a total supply of 990 billion. It was launched to build a token-based economy for networking, sharing bandwidth, and storage resources on the BitTorrent network.  BTTC can be used as payment for P2P services on the network, including paying for decentralized storage space, bidding for file downloading bandwidth, rewarding those who provide these services, and more. BitTorrent plans to utilize BTTC beyond the current use cases, such as crowdfunding the creation of new content, purchasing downloadable assets directly from creators, and tipping live streaming content creators with BTTC gifts on DLive.   How to buy BTTC on Binance? You can buy the BitTorrent Chain token (BTTC) on cryptocurrency exchanges like Binance.  1. Log in to your Binance account and click [Trade] - [Spot]. 2. Search “BTTC” to see the available trading pairs. We’ll use BTTC/BUSD as an example. 3. Go to the [Spot] box and enter the amount of BTTC to buy. In this example, we will use a Market Order. Click [Buy BTTC] and the purchased tokens will be credited to your Spot Wallet. Closing thoughts BitTorrent is a unique project that uses blockchain technology and cryptocurrency to revolutionize its existing peer-to-peer file sharing platform. It offers a more decentralized, efficient, and cost-saving alternative to the traditional P2P file-sharing platform. In the future, the BitTorrent team is looking to add more use cases to the BTTC token and support more DApp functionalities, which could be an enticing tool for developers looking to launch their own DApps with file sharing and storing capabilities.    Source: What Is BitTorrent (BTTC)?

The speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, expected by investors, may have shaken the markets. During his address, markets could have seen more volatility, leading to a sell-off in risky assets and another wave of dollar appreciation. On Friday afternoon, when the Fed Chairman spoke in Jackson Hole, the U.S. dollar seemed to strengthen, and again to levels last seen 20 years ago. The U.S. Dollar Index is also attempting today to continue its rise from Friday, surpassing the 109-point level, which could result in the establishment of a new peak in the recent uptrend. Jerome Powell, in his speech, indicated that the Fed is committed to lowering inflation by raising interest rates and keeping them higher for a longer period of time. This, in turn, may have influenced the market's valuation of the Fed's actions on September 21, where investors seem to assume a rate hike of 75 basis points to 3.00-3.25 percent with a 70 percent probability. Before Jackson Hole, this probability was around 50 percent. In Powell's view, the right thing for the Fed to do is to continue the monetary tightening cycle until inflation is within the 2 percent target. The Fed seems to be looking more broadly at the data than a horizon of one or two months, and a possible peak in inflation may not change anything here for the moment. The Federal Reserve chairman also warned against loosening monetary policy prematurely. This may have dashed the market's hopes for a so-called Fed pivot, a 180-degree change in attitude. According to Jerome Powell, fighting inflation may be "painful" for the economy to some extent, but it is better than letting inflation get even more out of control. Such statements may have been followed by a retreat from risky assets in the financial markets. On Friday, major U.S. stock indexes took a dive and erased all potential gains from August. The Dow and S&P 500 lost 3.03 percent and 3.37 percent, respectively, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 3.94 percent, its biggest drop since mid-June. This morning, futures also seemed to show potential losses, dropping between 0.7 percent and 1.3 percent. The cryptocurrency market was also not indifferent to the Fed chairman's words. Bitcoin, which cost $25,000 as recently as mid-August, slipped below the $20,000 level at the end of the month and appears to be approaching its June low. Ethereum, which recently cost $2,000, is now priced below $1,500. Thus, one can see that the market has begun to depend on events in the real economy and on the actions of the Fed, much like the traditional financial markets, to which, after all, it was supposed to be an alternative. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.   Source: Dollar hits 20 years high. Stock market tumbled

The crypto market could have collapsed after Jerome Powell's heavily hawkish speech in Jackson Hole. That day, the leading tokens, bitcoin and ethereum lost 4% and 9%, respectively, and continued their declines over the weekend, reaching levels not seen in two months. On the Conotoxia MT5 platform, bitcoin is losing 0.5% today at 10:30 GMT+3. After breaking through the likely support level of $20750 on Friday, the token may have entered a short consolidation phase. However, given the potentially high level of pessimism in the market, it may be expected that this will not last long, with possible further downward movements ahead.  The BTC price is far below the 10-, 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages. The nearest possible support levels are around $19300 and $18600. The MACD indicator and the directional indicator seem to indicate the continuation of the downtrend. The RSI oscillator may foretell its reversal, slowly entering the overbought area. However, since oscillators can usually give signals well ahead, one should be very cautious about this signal.  On the Conotoxia MT5 platform, ethereum is losing 2% today at 10:30 GMT+3. The token tested the likely support level of $1530 on Friday, then broke through it on Saturday. Unlike BTC, ETH has had a much more intense series of rises, and the potential for continued declines maybe even more tremendous. That's probably why the cryptocurrency hasn't even entered a short consolidation phase like BTC, and instead is set lower and lower on successive daily candles.  ETH is also below the 10-, 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages. Popular technical indicators (RSI, directional indicator and MACD) seem to point to a continuation of declines. Even the RSI, which may look optimistic for BTC, has yet to reach the overbought area for ETH.  On the Conotoxia MT5 platform, the Cardano project's native token (ADA) is losing strongly today, falling nearly 2.5% at 11:00 GMT+3. Cardano is an ecosystem that allows developers to create tokens and decentralized applications (dApps) within DeFi. ADA uses the Proof-of-Stake (POS) blockchain. For a long time, the project has been considered one of the 10 best projects in the crypto world, according to a Forbes ranking. Currently, the token is most likely following the market and seems to be recovering from the increases over the last two months. The current declines in the crypto market may continue after the Fed chairman's hawkish speech. The expected pivot in monetary policy is likely to happen, but much later than investors anticipated. In the short to medium term, the speculative nature of cryptocurrencies and optimism about blockchain technology could be stifled by the recession, high-interest rates and lower disposable income.    Rafał Tworkowski, Junior Market Analyst, Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.   Source: Crypto on fire - ETH and BTC are approaching price levels last seen in June

Table of Contents Crypto Market Overview Top Altcoin Gainers and Losers News Highlights This Week Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) Analysis on KuCoin Chart   The past week has brought the crypto market nothing but losses, with only a couple of cryptocurrencies managing to not lose their value. The overall cryptocurrency market volume in the past 24 hours came up to $66.73 billion - close to $10 billion less than the previous week.The overall crypto market cap fell below the $1 trillion mark, now totaling $953.14 billion. This ended up being a decrease of 190.7 billion compared to the previous week. Let's delve deeper and take a quick look at the latest crypto market news and BTC's technical outlook. Crypto Market Overview Bitcoin's drop below the $20,000 mark provided a quick shock to the market, causing more people to believe that another leg down is up ahead. BTC’s dominance is steadily declining, now standing at 38.66%. This came as a result of several cryptocurrencies maintaining their price decrease lower than the largest cryptocurrency. The most valuable cryptocurrency pair, BTC/USDT, is currently trading at $19,786.11, while Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has fallen to 1,444.75, down 10.78% in the last week. The top performers from the previous week were eCash (XEC), Huobi Token (HT), and IoTeX (IOTX). XEC has increased by 29.28%, while HT gained 17.44% in the past seven days. Finally, IOTX gained 12.51%.     Cryptocurrency Market Heatmap | Source: Coin360 On the other hand, Avalanche (AVAX), STEPN (GMT), and Lido DAO (LDO) were the worst performers of the week. AVAX is down 19.45% to $17.96; GMT is down 16.17% in the last seven days; GRT is down 16.10% to $1.61. Top Altcoin Gainers and Losers Top Altcoin Gainers: eCash (XEC) ➠ 29.28% Huobi Token (HT) ➠ 17.44% IoTeX (IOTX) ➠ 12.51% Top Altcoin Losers: Avalanche (AVAX) ➠ 19.45% STEPN (GMT) ➠ 16.17% Lido DAO (LDO) ➠ 16.10% News Highlights Here are some of the events that made the previous week's crypto news section stand out:   US Stocks Lost $1.25 Trillion in Just One Day Fed Chair Jerome Powell has suggested that larger rate hikes were definitely on the table despite recent data hinting that inflation was already slowing down. As a result of this, investors rushed to cut their riskier investments.   This resulted in the S&P 500 closing down 3.4% on Friday, hitting its lowest levels since late July. The Nasdaq Composite Index didn’t perform much better, as it dropped by 4%. Overall, the US stock market lost more value in one day than the entire market cap of the cryptocurrency market.   Cardano (ADA) Inching Closer to its Vasil Hard Fork Input Output Hong Kong (IOHK), the blockchain company in charge of development for the Cardano network, stated that the Vasil hard fork is “ever closer.” IOHK shared its latest Vasil hard fork status, and posted updates on its three critical mass indicators, which determine the date of the upgrade.   The company indicated that they are looking for 75% of mainnet blocks produced by nodes running the 1.35.3 version, around 25 exchanges upgraded, as well as the top ten key mainnet decentralized applications (DApps) also upgrading to the new version.   When it comes to the current upgrade status, we are looking at around 50% of the transition finalized, with 50% to go until the Vasil hard fork goes live.   US Dollar Hits a New 20-Year High One of the largest gainers in the past weeks was none other than the US dollar. The currency has managed to increase its value, thus hitting a 20-year high. On the other side of the world, the euro has suffered massive losses and lost parity with the dollar.   The US dollar’s surge has historically been a bad indicator for the price of Bitcoin - in fact, the two have a strong inverse correlation.   OpenSea Daily Volume Decreases by 99% OpenSea, the world's largest NFT marketplace, has witnessed a massive drop in daily volumes as fears about a potential NFT bubble burst grow larger.   The marketplace processed nearly $5 million worth of NFT transactions yesterday, which came up to around 99% less than its record high of $405.75 million on May 1. The massive decline in daily volumes came as a result of two factors: The overall crypto bear market, which has affected all aspects of the Web3 sector. The increasing fear of the NFT market being a bubble poised to burst. OpenSea’s user count has seen a massive drop over the past 90 days, with floor prices hitting yearly lows. The greatest example of this is the floor price of the Bored Ape Yacht Club, which dropped by 53% to 72.5 ETH on Aug 28 versus a high of 153.7 ETH on May 1.   The Fear & Greed Index at 24, Market Sentiment Plummets The fear and greed index has pushed back down from the past week, moving from 45 all the way down to 24. The indicator now indicates “extreme fear,” caused by the sudden drop of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.     Fear & Greed Index | Source: Alternative   Crypto Calendar: Events to Watch This Week ➺ 29/08/2022 - Klaytn - Magma Hard Fork ➺ 30/08/2022 - Tron - Telegram AMA   Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) Analysis on KuCoin Chart Bitcoin (as well as the rest of the cryptocurrency market) has had a horrible week after Jerome Powell’s announcement that the FED may keep rising interest rates. This statement caused the US stock market to erase over $1 trillion, while Bitcoin tanked and managed to drop below $20,000.   Bitcoin is now around 70% lower than its November 2021 all-time high of $69,000. The current sharp movements occurring in Bitcoin are not caused by technical indicators, but rather by news and announcements coming mostly from the west.   However, while it is true that the market is now ruled by fundamental and sentiment indicators, let’s explore the technical side of BTC as well.   Bitcoin has managed to drop below the large 23.6% Fib retracement sitting at $22,845, thus triggering a sell-off. With the price dropping once again, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap has formed another (much smaller) Fib retracement. BTC is now testing its bottom, sitting at $19.408.     BTC/USDT Chart on the Daily Timeframe | Source: KuCoin   When it comes to support and resistance levels, Bitcoin is likely to encounter resistance to the upside at an area between $20,750 and $21,620. On the other side, analysts state that traders should watch out for $19,400, as this is the only level separating Bitcoin from the $17,550 level.   Did you know that KuCoin offers premium TradingView charts to all its clients? With this, you can step up your Bitcoin technical analysis and easily identify various crypto chart patterns.   Sign up on KuCoin, and start trading today!   Follow us on Twitter >>> https://twitter.com/kucoincom   Join us on Telegram >>> https://t.me/Kucoin_Exchange   Download KuCoin App >>> https://www.kucoin.com/download   Also, Subscribe to our Youtube Channel >>> Listen to 60s Podcast   Source: Weekly Crypto Analysis: BTC Under $20K as HODLers Brace for September

Relevance up to 16:00 2022-08-30 UTC+2 Red line -resistance Black lines- Fibonacci retracements Ethereum made new lower lows earlier today at $1,423. Price has reached the 50% Fibonacci retracement which was our next target after the rejection at $1,720 and the break of the support at $1,660. There are indications that price is preparing another bounce towards the important resistance trend line at $1,630. Price is making lower lows and lower highs after the top formation around $2,025. Price will remain vulnerable to more downside as long as it trades below the red trend line. Next downside target is the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $1,310. However first we should prepare for a bounce towards $1,600. Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.   Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Short-term technical analysis on Ethereum for August 29, 2022.

Relevance up to 07:00 2022-08-31 UTC+2 Crypto Industry News: Founder and Investment Director of Cyber Capital Cryptocurrency Fund Justin Bons called Bitcoin (BTC) "technically one of the worst cryptocurrencies" and "purely speculative asset without utility" compared to other cryptocurrencies due to the lack of technological advancement. Bons added his opinion in an 11-part Twitter thread on Sunday, stating that Bitcoin's value proposition has long been deteriorating due to a broken long-term security model, relatively weak economic features, and a lack of capability, programmability, and composing. Bons has been an expressive figure in the crypto community for several years now, establishing one of the oldest European cryptocurrency funds, Cyber Capital in 2016, and as of 2014 considered a full-time cryptocurrency researcher. In addition, Bons runs nodes on the Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash networks. Justin Bons said he vigorously defended BTC in 2014, said "the reality is that BTC has changed dramatically since then," with the decision not to increase the block size limit, "a serious departure from the original vision and purpose. Bitcoin ". Technical Market Outlook: The BTC/USD pair has been seen making a pull-back towards the level of $20,716 after the bears had pushed the market out of the channel. The next target for bears is seen at the level of $18,940 (technical support from July 13th) and $18,640 (technical support from July 1st). The momentum remains weak and negative, however, there is a bullish divergence seen on the H4 time frame chart between the price action (last low) and momentum. The larger time frame trend (daily and weekly) remains down until further notice. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $20,566 WR2 - $20,144 WR1 - $19,963 Weekly Pivot - $19,722 WS1 - $19,540 WS2 - $19,300 WS3 - $18,878 Trading Outlook: The down trend on the H4, Daily and Weekly time frames continues without any indication of a trend termination or reversal. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Bitcoin for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The key long term technical support at the psychological level of $20,000 had been violated, the new swing low was made at $17,600 and if this level is violated, then the next long-term target for bulls is seen at $13,712. On the other hand, the gamechanging level for bulls is located at $25,367 and it must be clearly violated for a valid breakout. Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for August 30, 2022

Summary:  Since the largest Bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox was hacked in 2014, the trustee has managed to recover around 141,000 out of 850,000 Bitcoins. The recovered Bitcoins were rumored to be paid back to creditors this August. Yet, it seems that it will not occur in the next months, making the market wait in fear of potential imminent selling pressure. The market anxiously awaits 141,000 Bitcoins from Mt. Gox In 2014, the largest Bitcoin exchange at the time called Mt. Gox leaked a total of 850,000 Bitcoins through a hack. Out of a maximum supply of 21mn Bitcoins, the hack is the most consequential in the history of crypto, although there have been many other hacks. Though, the trustee managed to recover around 141,000 Bitcoins, which have to date not been paid out to creditors; that is clients with Bitcoins deposited to Mt. Gox back in the days. With a recovery plan approved by creditors last year, the payout is undoubtedly coming closer. It was rumored in July to take place this August. However, it now seems that it is still months away, as the repayment system is not yet live. Although the Bitcoins are likely not to be repaid in the coming months, it is expected to take place at some point. The market has been severely anxious with respect to the 141,000 Bitcoins potentially flooding the market immediately following the payout, since creditors may see it as a race in liquidating the Bitcoins before everyone else. Since Mt. Gox was hacked, the value of the Bitcoins has increased by a factor of 35, so the creditors might want to secure some profit. What speaks against this race to liquidate the Bitcoins is that the trustee is likely to repay the Bitcoins in installments one at a time. Likewise, these creditors are mainly strong Bitcoin advocates soon having been around for a decade. A substantial portion of them have already made life-changing money, so they are less prone to sell the Bitcoins. As the past has often proved, the anticipation of imminent heavy selling pressure is often more powerful for a potential downward trajectory than the selling pressure itself. Strictly speaking, we do not expect the repayment to pose heavy selling pressure, particularly if it occurs in relatively minor installments at a time. Yet, we have our eyes on the market’s anticipation of the repayment, because it might spread fear across the market since it is predominantly dominated by retail more inclined to fear. See you on the other side, dear NFT hype The crypto trend of 2021 was arguably non-fungible tokens (NFTs). The biggest winner of this trend was the largest NFT marketplace OpenSea, facilitating a volume worth $14bn in 2021. While OpenSea started the year nicely with an all-time high monthly volume of over $5bn in January, it has since seen its volume decline massively. OpenSea has recorded a volume worth $480mn in August so far, in which its volume barely exceeds $10mn some days. The declining volume is mainly a result of a less speculative market combined with diminished prices denominated in Ether and even more in dollar terms. Bitcoin/USD - Source: Saxo Group Ethereum/USD - Source: Saxo Group Source: Crypto Weekly: Anxiously awaiting 141,000 Bitcoins

Stock markets are bouncing back on Tuesday following a rocky couple of weeks as investors grew nervous about the economic impact of tightening. Fed Chair Jerome Powell could not have been more clear on Friday on the central bank’s tightening stance and unlike the warnings from his colleagues, the message appeared to have finally gotten through. Which makes today’s move all the more curious. It’s not the fact that we’re seeing a rebound as equity markets don’t move in straight lines, rather it’s the strength of it that is interesting. Prior to Friday’s speech, investors appeared determined to cast aside warnings in favour of the dovish pivot narrative and today’s moves may suggest the same could still be true after a brief pullback. With a 75 basis point rate hike now viewed as the more likely outcome from the Fed in a few weeks and ECB officials putting a similar move on the table ahead of its meeting next week, how strong of a recovery can we really expect in equity markets? Central banks have made it perfectly clear now that the fight against inflation is their primary concern and a hard landing may just be the price to pay. While that may change if we see any significant improvement on the inflation front over the coming months, the risks still appear more tilted to the downside for the economy. A big moment for bitcoin Bitcoin is enjoying a slight recovery today after surviving a brief dip below $20,000 over the weekend. The hawkish sentiment by Powell took its toll at the end of the week but crypto bulls are fighting back to defend what could be a key level. We may need to see more of the resilience displayed in recent months as a failure to do so could quickly see bitcoin retesting the June lows. For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.   Source: A curious rebound

China-Taiwan tensions rise again after drone incident Source: shutterstock Macro outlook Global markets: It’s slow, and it’s measured, and volumes are normal, but US equities declined again yesterday. Both the S&P500 and NASDAQ declined by about 1.1% on Tuesday. Equity futures are mixed, but basically flat. Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report may provide the next big leg up or down. US Treasury yields are also grinding very slowly higher. The yield on the 2Y US Treasury rose 1.8bp to 3.442%, while that on the 10Y bond remained flat at 3.102%. 10Y UK Gilt yields pushed up 10.2bp yesterday, catching up their European peers after the public holiday on Monday.  EURUSD was fairly steady yesterday, holding above parity and edging up to 1.0022. The AUD pushed up strongly at one point to close to 0.696, but then collapsed back to 0.6857 on a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) report cited by Bloomberg that hinted at more moderate rate hikes ahead. Cable collapsed back below 1.17 to 1.1658 after the public holiday, while the JPY has remained fairly steady at 138.75. Asian FX was a mixed bag. The PHP and SGD joined Australia at the bottom of the pack, and the TWD was also weaker – perhaps disturbed by reports that a Chinese drone was shot at over the Kinmen islands. The INR, IDR and MYR all solid made gains yesterday, the INR rising on hopes that Government securities may be included in the JPMorgan global index. G-7 Macro: Eurozone preliminary CPI inflation for August and the US ADP employment survey are the main macro releases today. EU inflation could rise to 9.0% from 8.9%YoY. While analysts expect the ADP survey to show a 300,000 increases in private sector employment in August.   China: Official PMI data for China are due out at 0930SGT. Consensus forecasters expect the manufacturing index to remain in contraction territory at 49.2, though this would be a slight improvement from the July figure of 49.0 if so. The non-manufacturing index is expected to show a slowdown in growth with the index easing down to 52.3 from 53.8. India: Later tonight, India releases GDP data for 2Q22, where the consensus expects a base-effect dominated series could deliver a 15.3%YoY increase. This will keep India on track to achieve 7%-plus rate of growth for the calendar-year 2022. The consensus estimate is in line with our own expectations. Fiscal deficit data for July will also be released. Australia: 2Q construction work done and private sector credit growth are today’s macro offerings. Both will provide some indication of the work the RBA will need to do to slow the economy enough to bring inflation down. Construction is bouncing along either side of zero quarter-on-quarter and is due a slight upward bounce in 2Q after a -0.9%QoQ result for Q1. Private sector credit growth is running at more than 9%YoY and will need to come down to be consistent with the Reserve Bank’s inflation target. Korea: The July Industrial production outcome was weak with the all-industry index falling (-0.1% MoM). Manufacturing production (-1.3%), retail sales (-0.3%), equipment investment (-3.2%), and construction (-2.5%) all dropped while services (0.3%) alone rebounded. Forward-looking machinery orders and construction orders also declined, suggesting a weak investment outlook for the next quarter. Also, it was particularly noticeable that all semiconductor-related figures came out poorly. The weak start of the quarter poses downside risks to the current quarter’s GDP. We don’t expect growth to contract in the current quarter, but the likelihood of a negative quarter is growing. If GDP contracts this quarter, it will complicate the BoK’s policy action at the year-end. Japan: In contrast to Korea, the July Industrial production (IP) performance was pretty strong. IP rose unexpectedly by 1.0% MoM sa (vs -0.5% market consensus), following a 9.2% surge in June. Retail sales also rose more than expected (0.8% in July vs -1.4% in June).  Also, output forecasts for August and September improved suggesting that solid production is likely to continue this quarter. Today’s reports signal that the economy continues to recover, mostly due to catch-up production gaps and reopening boosts. What to look out for: Regional PMI and US non-farm payrolls South Korea industrial production (31 August) Japan industrial production (31 August) China manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI (31 August) Hong Kong retail sales (31 August) India GDP (31 August) Fed's Mester speaks (31 August)  South Korea GDP and trade (1 September) Regional PMI manufacturing (1 September) China Caixin PMI manufacturing (1 September) Indonesia CPI inflation (1 September) US initial jobless claims and ISM manufacturing (1 September) Fed's Bostic speaks (1 September) South Korea CPI inflation (2 September) US non-farm payrolls and factory orders (2 September) Read this article on THINK TagsEmerging Markets Asia Pacific Asia Markets Asia Economics Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Relevance up to 13:00 UTC+2 Technical analysis: BTC/USD has been trading sideways at the price of $20.300 and i see potential for the the downside rotation towards lower reference point. Trading recommendation: Due to the test and reject of the resistance at the price of $20.500, I see further downside movement. Watch for potential selling opportunities on the intraday rallies with the downside objective at the price of $19.700. Key resistance is set at the price of $20.500 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: BTC update for August 31,.2022 - Potential for the downside rotation of the resistance

Red line- major resistance trend line Blue lines- trading range XRP has reached the end of August with price still trading inside the sideways trading range its been in since the beginning of June. Price remains below the major resistance trend line and with no sign of trend change. Price continues trading sideways between $0.28-$0.37. We continue to expect a move lower as the weekly RSI has not crossed over to oversold levels yet. A new lower low is expected and we remain bearish as long as price is below the red resistance trend line. Short-term bounce towards $0.52 is possible if price breaks above $0.40. Trends do not usually end with trading ranges and sideways movement. Trends usually end with a capitulation low or high. We have not seen a capitulation low and that is why I remain pessimistic for the near future. Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Weekly XRP analysis for the end of August 2022.

TL;DR MANTRA is a vertically-integrated blockchain ecosystem. The MANTRA OMniverse encompasses the DAO; MANTRA Nodes: a blockchain infrastructure-as-a-service business; MANTRA Chain: a protocol for various assets for the Cosmos ecosystem; and MANTRA Finance: a DeFi platform that brings the speed and transparency of DeFi to the world of TradFi.   Introduction Launched in 2020, MANTRA is a vertically-integrated blockchain ecosystem. Previously known as MANTRA DAO, the ecosystem carries a reputation for an open and honest approach to crypto trading, fund-building, and innovation, all part of its goal to make crypto-pioneering personal, safe and secure.   What is the OMniverse? With MANTRA’s rebrand also came the restructuring of MANTRA into the all-encompassing MANTRA ecosystem, otherwise known as the OMniverse. The OMniverse is made up of four stacks that comprise the wide variety of products and services MANTRA offers to both retail and institutional investors. The four stacks are MANTRA Nodes, MANTRA Chain, MANTRA Finance and MANTRA DAO, with each comprising a range of innovative products within MANTRA’s ecosystem.  MANTRA Nodes MANTRA Nodes is the cornerstone of the vertically integrated stack that is the foundation for the OMniverse. The primary function of the node operations is to generate revenue for the business and grow Sherpa community holdings by providing more yield-earning opportunities across multiple blockchains. Additionally, these validator nodes support MANTRA in building a presence on new and emerging blockchain networks and growing it into a larger institutional space as an ecosystem. It also opens up opportunities to expand MANTRA’s multi-chain DeFi ecosystem. MANTRA also offers Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS), meaning it can set up validator node operations for both institutions and individuals. The MANTRA Nodes service line also includes node management, retail staking (both on- and off-chain), institutional nodes, and cloud / white-label node development and deployment. MANTRA Chain MANTRA Chain is the protocol for the Cosmos ecosystem. It is interoperable with other blockchains in Cosmos with the IBC module, providing developer tools and an opportunity to build anything from games and web3 applications to secure and decentralized exchanges (DEXs). The network is also EVM-compatible, combining the flexibility and reliability of both the Cosmos and Ethereum ecosystems in a builder-friendly environment.  MANTRA Chain also utilizes a powerful decentralized identify (DID) module for all KYC & AML needs. The module facilitates the development of the products that utilize enhanced features and ecosystems. MANTRA Finance MANTRA Finance aims to be a platform that brings the speed and transparency of DeFi to the established yet opaque TradFi world. The platform will allow for users around the world to trade, issue, and earn from digital assets in a non-custodial and permissionless way. MANTRA DAO Since its inception, MANTRA has always focused on involving its community at every stage, and the transparent governance mechanism is the core that brings the people together. To reach a wider community outside of the OMniverse and Sherpas, M DAO strives to bring this narrative and structure to other projects and their many protocols. The stack offers DAO services that securely increase the efficiency of various DAOs’ business functions, from finance to HR management. For example, some DAO solutions include treasury management, DAO issuance and launchpads, and DAO governance and grants, as well as DAO staking and DeFi. Some successful DAO partnerships include HeliSwap, the first DEX & DAO on the Hedera network and ZENSTAR, the first substrate based money-market built on the Astar network on Polkadot. The OM Token $OM is the native token of the OMniverse and has various utility including:Governance: $OM stakers can issue proposals, participate in governance votes, and suggest developments in various products across the OMniverse.Staking: $OM can be staked directly on MANTRA’s web app or on Binance for passive yield earning.DAO Token Access/ Airdrop Incentives: $OM stakers get special access to new DAO token issuances as well as partnering DAO token airdrops. Now that you’re familiar with the essential stacks that make up MANTRA as an ecosystem, let’s look at how you can buy MANTRA’s tokens, $OM, on Binance.  How to buy $OM on Binance   1. Log in to your Binance account and go to [Trade] -> [Spot]. 2. Type “OM” in the search bar to view the available trading pairs. We will use OM/BUSD as an example. 3. Go to the [Spot] box and enter the amount of $OM you want to buy. In this example, we will use a market order. Click [Buy OM] to confirm your order, and the purchased $OM will be credited to your Spot Wallet. How to stake $OM on Binance? 1. Log in to your Binance account and go to [Earn] -> [Binance Earn]. 2. Type “OM” in the search bar to view the available staking period (30, 60 or 90 days) and click [Stake Now]. 4. Enter the amount of OM you would like to stake and click [confirm]. Closing thoughts While MANTRA aims to create a secure, safe, and personal ecosystem for its users, it’s always important to remember that the crypto industry is not free of risks. Familiarizing yourself with MANTRA’s infrastructure will help you understand the services provided within the OMniverse.   Source: What Is MANTRA (OM)?

Summary: Nasdaq fell more than 0.7% on Tuesday. RBA interest rate decision. Nasdaq down 0.74% on Tuesday In a volatile post-Labor Day session on Tuesday, U.S. stocks fell as investors remained on edge in anticipation of the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision later in the month. The declines on Tuesday were led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, which fell 0.7%. The movements follow three weeks in a row in which the major averages have lost money. Following the release of new data showing that U.S. services activity accelerated in August, losses throughout the equity market continued. This gave investors reason to believe that Fed officials could go with a larger rate rise of 75 basis points on September 21. IXIC Price Chart Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which raised interest rates by another 50 basis points on Tuesday, together with indications that the central bank is reaching the conclusion of its tightening cycle, left the Australian Dollar floundering. By raising rates by 50 basis points, the RBA satisfied market expectations and promised additional rate increases in its outlook. However, the RBA acknowledged "higher inflation and higher interest rates are putting pressure on household budgets, with the full effects of higher interest rates yet to be felt in mortgage payments". This is a sign from the Bank that it thinks the time has come to scale back on raising interest rates because the full impact of recent moves has not yet been felt. Sources: fxmag.com, poundsterlinglive.com, finance.yahoo.com

At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.45% to hit a monthly low, the S&P 500 index fell 0.72%, and the NASDAQ Composite index fell 0.90%. The leading performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today was Home Depot Inc, which gained 4.43 points (1.63%) to close at 275.97. Amgen Inc rose 3.48 points or 1.53% to close at 231.14. Johnson & Johnson rose 2.52 points or 1.53% to close at 167.60. The losers were Boeing Co shares, which fell 5.49 points or 3.67% to end the session at 144.29. Chevron Corp was up 2.60% or 4.17 points to close at 156.45, while Walt Disney Company was down 2.28% or 2.52 points to close at 108. 25. Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Iron Mountain Incorporated, which rose 3.35% to hit 55.29, Newmont Goldcorp Corp, which gained 3.09% to close at 43.71, and also Dollar Tree Inc, which rose 2.89% to end the session at 141.92. The biggest losers were FedEx Corporation, which shed 21.40% to close at 161.02. Shares of WestRock Co lost 11.48% to end the session at 34.15. Quotes of International Paper fell in price by 11.21% to 35.23. Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Panbela Therapeutics Inc, which rose 53.06% to hit 0.58, Applied Opt, which gained 50.40% to close at 3.76, and shares of Axcella Health Inc, which rose 29.57% to end the session at 2.41. The biggest losers were Aditx Therapeutics Inc, which shed 58.52% to close at 4.31. Shares of Esports Entertainment Group Inc lost 46.15% and ended the session at 0.18. Shuttle Pharmaceuticals Inc lost 45.94% to 8.99. On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2294) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (816), and quotes of 121 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,586 stocks fell, 1,158 rose, and 233 remained at the previous close. The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 0.11% to 26.30. Gold Futures for December delivery added 0.38%, or 6.35, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI October futures rose 0.29%, or 0.25, to $85.35 a barrel. Brent oil futures for November delivery rose 0.81%, or 0.74, to $91.58 a barrel. Meanwhile, in the forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.10% to 1.00, while USD/JPY fell 0.40% to hit 142.95. Futures on the USD index fell 0.02% to 109.43.   Relevance up to 05:00 2022-09-20 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/293169

The technology companies that have acted as growth drivers for stock markets in recent years are increasingly losing their leading positions. Although it would be too naive to talk about the "beginning of the end" for the IT giants, the initial reaction to the reports of Microsoft and Alphabet makes it seem more like a threat to the recovery of the Nasdaq and S&P500 indices. Shares of both giants are losing around 6.6% on the post-market. Microsoft's revenue and profit beat expectations, but investors see more negative numbers in the dynamic (-3.4% QoQ on revenue and -14.4% YoY on profit). Alphabet noted a tough time in the ad market, with an overall profit fall of 26.6% y/y despite revenue growth of 6.6% y/y. The latter is the lowest rate in 9 years. Experienced traders have long noticed that companies are likely to present the situation to industry analysts, so they make low projections. And easily beat them shortly after in ¾ of the cases. It is, therefore, not uncommon for neutral numbers or a slight overperformance to lead to a share price slump. Also, in growth sectors, markets are paying increased attention to companies' forecasts. And they have been disappointed. Both Microsoft and Alphabet cited falling PC and ad sales. And that's bad news for the future, as it doesn't set the stage for a turnaround in the coming months. Microsoft's comments about cloud computing cuts also pulled Amazon shares, which are losing 4.3% in the post-market. On a more general level, the simple rule of thumb remains that the IT sector is inversely correlated with interest rate movements and is more vulnerable during the economic downturn for which many are now preparing. Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Choosing from major US indices - the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq - the first looks the most promising, including more manufacturing companies and a smaller weighting on the IT sector. This driver change can already be seen in that the Dow Jones made its lows in early October, while the other two made their lows on 13 October: the strongest are recovering first. And it is not the Technology sector right now. Nonetheless, while this trio stays about 20% below the peak and the US Fed forwarding market expectations to slower rate hikes, it looks like the bottom is already behind us.

Australian inflation puts the pressure back on the Reserve Bank Source: shutterstock Macro outlook Global Markets: After Monday’s adverse post 20th Congress market reaction, Asian FX had a better day, with most currencies making small gains overall, though G-10 currencies staged a late rally against the USD and early trading is likely to see Asia playing catch-up. Outside of the G-10 space, the KRW and SGD both gained a little over 0.4% on the day. The CNY opened much  weaker yesterday, pushing close to 7.31, but dropped back sharply in late trading to finish roughly unchanged from Monday’s close at 7.2686 as the USD lost ground against most currencies. EURUSD, for example, pushed strongly higher, reaching 0.9964, putting parity back in the cross-hairs. The AUD also made strong gains, (+1.3%) as did the  JPY (+0.61%), reaching  0.6381 and 148.06 respectively.  Cable has had another strong day too rising to 1.1458. A good start for PM Sunak. The catalyst for the USD’s weakness yesterday looked as it may be coming from the bond market. Fed funds implied yields were slightly down on the day, and 2Y US Treasury yields retreated 2.8bp though much bigger falls were seen in the 10Y and 30Y bonds, where yields were down 14bp and 12.8bp respectively. These declines were echoed in European bond markets. There does not seem to be any particular event or Fed remark driving this development. Yesterday’s US Macro data continued to chip away at the previous “higher for longer” rate expectation (see below). And slightly more temperate Fed comments over the previous week may now be being heeded. The lower bond yield environment won’t have hurt risk sentiment or equity markets. The S&P500 rose 1.63%, the NASDAQ was up 2.25% . After a mixed day yesterday, Asian bourses may show a little more resolve today. Asian equity futures look brighter, though the same cannot be said for their US counterparts, so any early gains may be short-lived.      G-7 Macro: As mentioned, the US data yesterday was on the softer side, with house price data showing further declines in price and bringing the August S&P Case Shiller index down to 13.08%YoY. The April peak was over 21%. Conference board consumer confidence data also showed further substantial declines in both the expectations and current conditions indices, while the Richmond Fed index was also down more than expected. Today we get trade data and new home sales. Neither release is particularly market moving, though both could keep chipping away at perceptions of the US economy’s resilience.    Australia: The 3Q22 consumer price index rose a further 1.8%QoQ, showing no slowdown from 2Q22, and takes the inflation rate to 7.3%YoY (up from 6.1%). The trimmed mean price index rose by the same amount, taking that inflation rate to 6.1% (up from 4.9%) and weighted median inflation also  rose to 5.0% from 4.2%. It is hard to reconcile these latest inflation figures with the RBA’s recent slowdown in hiking to only a 25bp hike at their last meeting, and we believe these numbers must push the odds strongly back in favour of a 50bp hike at their next meeting. South Korea: According to local business surveys, business outlook continues to deteriorate. Both manufacturing and non-manufacturing see a cloudy outlook. The Federation of Korean Industries (FKI)’s all-industry expectation index fell to 86.5 in October (vs 87.4 in September). The Bank of Korea’s survey also showed sentiment falling. The non-manufacturing outlook declined 3 pts, while the manufacturing survey fell a further 2 points. The BoK survey was conducted from October 11th to 18th, when local credit conditions squeezed sharply, and it seems that the effect had a negative impact on corporate sentiment. What to look out for: ECB meeting and US GDP Australia CPI inflation (26 October) South Korea GDP (27 October) China industrial profits (27 October) ECB meeting (27 October) US durable goods, initial jobless claims and 3Q GDP (27 October) Tokyo CPI inflation (28 October) Australia PPI inflation (28 October) Taiwan GDP (28 October) US personal spending, core PCE and Univ of Michigan sentiment (28 October) Read this article on THINK

Summary:  Microsoft and Alphabet did little to help the Q3 earnings season improve on the clear trend of margin pressure. Rising wage pressures, energy costs, lower advertising prices, slowing PC sales and too much hiring impacted operating income and the outlook against estimates. Later tonight Meta is on stage delivering Q3 earnings and given the signals from Snap and Alphabet on the global advertising market we expect significant pressure on Meta's business. Zuckerberg has only one option to please investors and that is by dialing down his efforts on Metaverse which is burning cash on an unprecedented scale. Margin compression is indeed a theme for technology companies Apple recently raised its prices on various of its services offerings from music to TV, and Spotify is also considering raising its prices. The culprit is rising wage pressures and higher energy costs that are hitting energy hungry applications running in the cloud. Microsoft gave the best hint of this saying that it expects $800mn more in energy costs in the current fiscal year which is approximately 1% of its current operating income. As the net profit margin chart below shows, US technology companies are right now facing the biggest margin compression since the Great Financial Crisis. Microsoft and Alphabet disappoint investors The two technology giants, Microsoft and Alphabet, delivered a weaker than estimated outlook. Microsoft’s Q3 revenue and earnings per share were slightly above estimates, but its guidance on growth was lower than estimated. Higher energy costs, wage pressures, slowing PC sales, slowing ad sales and a strong USD are contributing to the expected hit to the operating margin. In order to mitigate some of the cost headwinds and slowing growth the software maker has more or less introduced a hiring freeze. Alphabet was hinted to be weak as Snap last week reported weak advertising sales, but investors did not take the hint adjusting their expectations lower as Alphabet has previously been decoupled from Snap’s performance. But this time investors should have listened to Snap as Alphabet reported a miss on both revenue and operating income with revenue at $69.1bn vs est. $70.8bn and operating income at $17.1bn vs est. $19.7bn. The company added 10,000 new employees in Q3 which is an aggressive increase given the slowdown in the economy but it says that hiring will be significantly lower going forward. Alphabet’s EBIT margin was declining in the 10 years leading into the pandemic which then turbocharged ads pricing because of the high growth in the online economy, but the past year has been a different story with the operating margin declining from 32.3% to 24.8% in Q3 this year. Zuckerberg has one mission tonight Meta is one other Silicon Valley company that is following Alphabet’s hiring bonanza and its bet on the Metaverse, which seems to have hit critical road blocks in terms of user adoption, is burning cash on an unprecedented scale. In Q2, Meta’s operating margin fell to 29% from 42.5% a year before as advertising prices were coming down hard after Apple’s new data privacy rules are making it more difficult for Meta to serve targeted ads. Given the earnings reports from Alphabet and Snap we expect Meta to show margin compression and revenue pressure in Q3 and in our view the pressure is significantly increasing on CEO Mark Zuckerberg to rein in operating expenses. This includes a hiring freeze, or maybe even cuts, and a drastically less ambitious target for Metaverse, and if Zuckerberg dares to admit failure on Metaverse then investors might reward the company with a much higher valuation. European earnings are a bright spot It is still early days on Q3 earnings, but the initial indications suggest that European earnings are doing better than US and Chinese earnings with the strong USD of course creating a tailwind for profits outside Europe. Given relatively better earnings dynamics, lower equity valuations, and a lower discount rate there is a good case to be made for being more positive on European equities rather than US equities. Source: Microsoft and Alphabet Q3 results disappoint Meta on tap tonight | Saxo Group (home.saxo)  

Today (October 26) we will learn the results of Meta Platforms (Facebook), a social media company that is part of the five Silicon Valley tech giants known as FAANG (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google). The environment for the company appears to be unfavorable following the published disappointing results of competitor Snap. Metaverse future, or just a fantasy? Meta has not enjoyed a good run since the beginning of this year. The Metaverse project may have been negatively received by investors, as it could be seen from the company's share price drop of more than 59% since the beginning of the year. The company's CEO Mark Zuckerberg seems to have decided to put everything on the line, which has brought, due to the project's attention, more than $13 billion in costs so far. In addition, we could hear many rumors from the media about the internal situation of the company, or the perspective of employees. However, let's try to verify all assumptions based on hard data regarding the company's core business. Meta Platforms' performance and financial position Last quarter was the first period in which Facebook lost about 1.4 million active users. The company reported that the situation has improved. However, it could be assumed that investors especially decided to watch the development of the company's new project. Analysts predicted earnings per share EPS of 1.89 (previously 2.46).According to one of Altimeter Capital's major shareholders, CEO Brand Gerstner in an open letter to the company, “Meta needs to rebuild trust with investors, employees and the tech community to attract, inspire and retain the best people in the world. [...] Meta shares have declined 55% over the past 18 months (compared to an average of 19% for its big-tech counterparts). The P / E ratio fell from 23x to 12x and is currently half the average P / E ratio of peers. Importantly, this decline in stock prices reflects lost confidence in the company, not just bad sentiment in the market. " In addition, Tuesday's problems with WhatsApp, which stopped working for several hours, may give us an environment of potentially extreme negative sentiment on the company's shares.As Gerstner mentioned in the letter, it seems that valuation has significantly detached itself from the company's core business. Facebook does not seem to have stopped making money from sales, however, it has clearly seen a slowdown in advertising sales, as could be seen from last quarter's results, in which the company reported its first y/y revenue decline. It fell from $29.08 billion to $28.82 billion. At the same time, EBITDA fell from $14.35 billion to $10.33 billion. Everything may depend on the cost of the Metaverse? With such seemingly pessimistic sentiment for this company, all eyes may be on the update and further plans for the Metaverse project. A key piece of information would perhaps turn out to be the subsequent costs incurred for this project. However, someone could get the impression that most of the negative comments have been factored into the stock price. But would the stock market say "buy when the blood pours" be confirmed? What does Wall Street think of Meta Platforms' stock price? Source: Conotoxia MT5, Facebook, WeeklyAccording to Market Screener, the company has 55 recommendations, most of which are buy recommendations. The average target price is set at $209.97, more than 50% higher than the last closing price. The highest target price is at $466, and the lowest is at $150.Author: Grzegorz Dróżdż, a Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Read more reviews and open a demo account at invest.conotoxia.com Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75,21% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Read the article on Conotoxia.com

China's macroprudential changes help propel the CNY against a much weaker USD backdrop as the pivot story gets a nudge from the Bank of Canada Source: shutterstock Macro outlook Global Markets: A disappointing revenue forecast from Facebook parent, Meta, helped push the NASDAQ down more than 2% yesterday, though there was a much smaller decline from the S&P500, which fell only 0.74%, holding just above support levels. Futures markets indicate a return to growth today. Yesterday's Asian equity markets were also mostly positive, and despite the US moves overnight, the mood looks fairly positive today. This could also set up Asian FX for another positive day after currencies made strong gains yesterday. The THB and CNY led the charge in Asia, with the CNY surging 1.33% taking it all the way back to 7.1730 from about 7.30 earlier in the session. Reuters reported that state-owned Chinese banks were sellers of USD on Tuesday to support the yuan, which suggests that this may also have been what happened yesterday. And there were also policy measures from the PBoC which also helped (see China section below). The USD was weaker across the board after the Bank of Canada raised rates only 50bp – lower than the market had been expecting – citing recession fears. The knock-on from this dragged down implied rates in the US and pulled down the 2Y US Treasury yield by 5.6bp, and the 10Y yield by 9.9bp, which is now only just above 4%. EURUSD was another beneficiary of the lower US yield environment, pushing back above parity for the first time since late September and ahead of today's ECB meeting. The AUD is back to 0. 6490 after a massive surge, and Cable has risen to 1.1631, its highest in more than a month. The USD weakness was also evident in the JPY, which returned to 146.22. The market will no doubt be awash with speculation about whether this represents part of the “pivot” story, which some elements have been desperate to see unfolding. Next move – the Fed. They can either quash any such thoughts or, as it seems to have been doing recently, kindle them with some encouraging noises even as it hikes rates by 75bp next week (03 November). We will see… G-7 Macro: Besides the Bank of Canada decision yesterday, it was a quiet day, with only US new home sales for September worth much of a look, and they were actually a fair bit better than had been expected. The September US trade figures were also out and showed the deficit widening back out to -USD92.2bn, which also won’t have helped the USD.  Today, the ECB takes centre stage, and they are expected to raise the refi rate by 0.75% to 2.0%. Later on, we get the advance 3QGDP release from the US. Bloomberg consensus estimates put this as rising 2.4% (saar), bringing the technical recession to an end, but maybe providing some pointers at a looming “non-technical” recession in the coming quarters.   China: The PBoC, China’s central bank, raised its macro-prudential parameter for cross-border finance from 1.0 to 1.25 yesterday. The last time PBoC implemented an increase of this parameter was in March 2020 when the yuan depreciated to over 7.1. Back then, the yuan peaked a little later (May 2020). During that time, State-owned enterprises (SOEs) with offices offshore (e.g. Hong Kong), sent more USD to onshore parent companies, which would then convert this into yuan. Some converted USD to yuan offshore and sent yuan onshore. The result was the same, namely that there was more demand and therefore, a stronger yuan. The PBoC is now using the same tool. As noted above in the section on global markets, this move comes against a backdrop of uncertainty about the Fed’s ongoing rate hike speed and Fed forward guidance next week will be important for the yuan's coming path. South Korea: GDP recorded a 0.3%QoQ (sa) gain in 3Q22 (vs 0.7% in 2Q22). Reopening-boosted pent-up consumer spending slowed while investment showed a more resilient recovery. Based on the grim outlook for consumption and exports from recently released data, we maintain our view that the economy will experience a moderate recession early next year. What to look out for: ECB meeting and US GDP South Korea GDP (27 October) China industrial profits (27 October) ECB meeting (27 October) US durable goods, initial jobless claims and 3Q GDP (27 October) Tokyo CPI inflation (28 October) Australia PPI inflation (28 October) Taiwan GDP (28 October) US personal spending, core PCE and Univ of Michigan sentiment (28 October) Read this article on THINK TagsEmerging Markets Asia Pacific Asia Markets Asia Economics Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Summary:  Market sentiment is choppy after a boost yesterday as the Bank of Canada decided to only hike 50 basis points rather than the 75 basis points expected, encouraging the narrative that peak central bank hawkishness may be in the rear-view mirror. Alas, equities closed weaker in the US and after hours, a dire earnings report from Meta dented sentiment further and crumpled Meta stock nearly 20%. Elsewhere, the USD remains weak on retreating treasury yields. What is our trading focus?   Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) With weak technology earnings from Microsoft, Alphabet, and especially Meta last night the focus is currently on Nasdaq 100 futures. Despite a falling Nasdaq 100 yesterday, the index futures are attempting a rebound this morning, which is quite surprising given the lackluster outlook on technology earnings. Nasdaq 100 futures are trading around the 11,485 level with the natural resistance at around 11,713. If downside momentum continues, which could happen after potentially weak outlook from Apple and Amazon tonight, then the 11,000 level is the natural support level to watch. Euro STOXX 50 (EU50.I) Rallied yesterday to the 3,600 level and the index futures are currently hovering around this level in early morning trading. European equities are enjoying tailwind from easing energy and electricity prices due to wild weather and better than expected earnings showing more relative strength than US equities that are heavily impacted by the technology sector. Interest rate pressures and the strong USD are also easing, reducing the pain from financial conditions. If upside momentum continues the 200-day moving average at 3,685 is the next natural resistance level to watch. FX: USD remains down for the count, USDJPY nearing important support The drop in treasury yields has trumped choppy risk sentiment in driving USD weakness over the last couple of sessions, as key USD pairs saw the USD breaking down through key support: parity fell in EURUSD, the 1.1500 level in GBPUSD fell, and the 0.6400 area in AUDUSD likewise gave way. Interesting to note that even CAD managed to stabilize versus the greenback despite the smaller than expected hike from the Bank of Canada (more below). The next important USD support level to watch is perhaps 145.00 in USDJPY, which was an important line of resistance on the way up for the pair. A significant test below that level would likely require that US treasury yields continue lower – with 4.00% in the US 10-year benchmark a key focus over the next batches of data and the FOMC meeting next Wednesday. Gold (XAUUSD) and silver (XAGUSD) Both have steadied after receiving a boost from a weaker dollar and continued decline in US bond yields on speculation the US economy is getting close to rolling over. The attention is now turning to next week’s FOMC interest rate decision on November 2. While another bumper 75 basis points hike is expected, the FOMC may tilt towards slowing the pace at future meetings while assessing the impact of their rate and quantitative tightening actions. As a minimum gold needs to break above $1730 before an end to the month-long downtrend can be called. Until then watch the dollar and yields for inspiration, while silver needs a break above $20. Crude oil (CLZ2 & LCOZ2) Crude oil trade higher for a third day near a two-week high supported by a softer dollar and tightening product markets due to a post-pandemic reduction in refinery capacity and buyers avoiding Russian barrels. Developments that saw US exports of crude fuel hit a record 11.4 million b/d last week at a time where domestic fuel supplies already are at a historic seasonal low. Fuel market tightness has seen refinery margins and not least diesel prompt futures spreads in NY and Europe trade sharply higher, thereby underpinning the price of crude while at the same time highlighting the ineffectiveness of releasing strategic reserves of crude when its products that are needed. Look out for additional technical upside in WTI above $89.25 while Brent’s next level of resistance is the October high at $98.75. High Grade Copper (HGc1) Broke higher on Wednesday and out of the narrowing range that has prevailed since July. While a tight supply outlook, both in London and Shanghai, has been lending support in recent weeks, the latest upside attempt was driven by the weaker dollar, especially against the yuan which reversed sharply higher on Wednesday after China’s central bank and foreign exchange regulator said they would maintain the healthy development of stock and bond markets while calling for a stable yuan. Speculators hold a neutral to bearish view on copper and for that to change the technical outlook needs further improvement. Support at  $3.50 with resistance being the recent highs at $3.59 and $3.69. US treasuries (TLT, IEF) US treasury yields fell again yesterday, with the US 10-year treasury yield benchmark eyeing the important 4.00% level that was an important support level for the market as yields rose. The 2-year yield also eased lower, closing at a 2-week low near 4.40% as the market slowly unwinds forward tightening expectations from the Fed. The smaller than expected Bank of Canada hike yesterday was a contributor to that move (more below). An auction of 5-year  US Treasuries yesterday saw strong demand, also from foreign bidders. What is going on?    Meta shares plunge on huge losses on ‘Metaverse’ bet Meta shares were down 5.6% in yesterday’s primary equity sessions dragged down by Alphabet’s Q3 results showing significant slowdown in the global advertising market. However, the losses intensified in after-market trading down 20% as Q3 earnings showed a sharp decline in operating income and –5% y/y revenue growth. But as we wrote yesterday investors are sending the signal to Mark Zuckerberg that he should slow down the ambitions and cost associated with the Metaverse, but he is doubling down increasing the losses for next year and with revenue in its metaverse division missing big against expectations the growth profile of the company is coming down hard. This was a very ugly earnings release. Bank of Canada surprises with smaller than expected rate hike  The BoC only hiked 50 basis points, a surprise as the market had mostly priced a 75-bp move on the back of the most recent September CPI data surprising to the upside. The Bank’s statement still committed to further tightening in an “overheated” economy but was cautious on how much the rate tightening regime is already impacting growth, noting the increasing evidence of a slowdown in the interest rate sensitive parts of the economy, like housing. The Bank expects growth to be “close to zero” in the next few quarters. Canadian 2-year rates plunged some 25 basis points in the wake of the decision. Interestingly, while USDCAD jumped well over a figure higher on the back of the decision, much of that move was erased in the ensuing hours as the BoC caution encourages the notion that the Fed may also be set to wax more cautious at next week’s FOMC meeting.  UK Budget Statement delayed until November 17 The government was set to deliver a budget statement next Monday, October 31, but that has been delayed to give new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and the reappointed Chancellor Jeremy Hunt time to assess how to cut spending some £35 billion to further improve the fiscal deficit trajectory after the recent wipeout in the UK gilt market and sterling on fears of spiraling deficits. What are we watching next?    ECB meeting up today The ECB is set to hike rates 75 basis points today, taking the deposit rate to 1.50%. The central bank is already in hot water with Italy’s new Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who weighed in against the ECB hiking rates in pointed comments in her first speech as PM yesterday. The ECB is also seen likely to grapple with preventing banks from profiting from rising rates and with its awkward message on eventual quantitative tightening, as the central bank deals with the unique issue of “fragmentation”, the uneven transmission of policy due to multiple sovereign bond markets across the Eurozone.  The bank is expected to hike 50 basis points more in December. Bank of Japan meeting tonight – will the cracks begin to show? No sign that Governor Kuroda and company are set to surrender on YCC policy, and the easing lower of yields this week has given the JPY enough of a boost that the BoJ is under less pressure tactically to cave on its commitment to easing. USDJPY 145.00 an important focus technically for JPY traders. The final US macro data points ahead of Nov 2. FOMC meeting The market is clearly leaning for more cautious guidance from the Fed on its tightening regime after the market had recently finally capitulated and accepted that the Fed is likely to take rates as high as, or higher than forecast in the September FOMC meeting (the peak was slightly above 5.00% by next March, now having retreated to 4.81%), with low probability that 2023 will see any rate cuts. But will the crystallization of that view at the FOMC meeting next Wednesday feed further risk-on and a weaker US dollar? And then there is the next US data, of which we haven’t seen enough for the Fed to draw any strong conclusions. The December 14 FOMC meeting will come after two more inflation prints and will offer a new set of forecasts. Perhaps the Fed will prefer to stay as quiet as possible next week, also given the mid-term elections on Nov. 8? Further out, stubbornly strong core inflation and/or activity surveys could spoil the plot and take yields back higher. The next important data points include today’s Q3 GDP estimate and weekly jobless claims, and we’ll have a look at the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge tomorrow – the PCE inflation data for September, followed by the October ISM Manufacturing survey next Tuesday. Earnings to watch Today’s US earnings focus is Apple, Amazon, Intel, and Caterpillar. The latest round of weak earnings from technology companies driven by margin pressure from input costs, such as energy and wages, and weaker advertising demand is likely to hurt Apple and Amazon tonight. The recent price hikes announced by Apple should mitigate some of the expected weakness in the outlook while Amazon will face triple pressure points in its e-commerce, advertising, and cloud business. Intel is likely going to report a weak earnings report and with an outlook negatively impacted by slowing PC sales and significant capital expenditures to reshore some of its chip production. Caterpillar is the beacon in construction and mining activity, and analysts expect revenue growth to remain high at 13% y/y with unchanged margin telling the story again that the physical world is right now enjoying an advantage over the digital world. Today: ANZ, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Argenx, Shopify, Teck Resources, Neste, Kone, TotalEnergies, EDF, STMicroelectronics, PetroChina, China Life Insurance, CNOOC, Oriental Land, Shin-Etsu Chemical, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, Hoya, FANUC, Shell, Lloyds Banking Group, Universal Music Group, Repsol, Ferrovial, Hexagon, Evolution, Credit Suisse, Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, Merck & Co, McDonald’s, Linde, Intel, Honeywell, Caterpillar, Gilead Sciences, Pioneer Natural Resources Friday: Macquarie Group, OMV, ICBC, China Merchants Bank, LONGi Green Energy Technology, Midea Group, Imperial Oil, Danske Bank, Sanofi, Airbus, Volkswagen, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, BYD, China Shenhua Energy, Eni, Keyence, Hitachi, Denso, Equinor, CaixaBank, Wilmar International, Swiss Re, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, AbbVie, NextEra Energy, Colgate-Palmolive, Royal Caribbean Cruises Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 1000 – UK Oct. CBI Reported Sales 1215 – ECB Rate Announcement 1230 – US Q3 GDP Estimate 1230 – US Sep. Durable Goods Orders 1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 1245 – ECB President Lagarde Press Conference 1430 – US Weekly Natural Gas Storage Change 1500 – US Oct. Kansas City Fed Manufacturing 1530 – Bank of England’s Woods to speak 1700 – US Treasury auctions 7-year notes 2100 – New Zealand Oct. ANZ Consumer Confidence 2330 – Japan Tokyo Oct. CPI 2330 – Japan Sep. Jobless Rate 0030 – Australia Q3 PPI Bank of Japan meeting Source: Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – October 27, 2022 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

US stocks are struggling for direction after a mixed bag of earnings was accompanied by economic data that supports the idea that the economy is weakening. It looks like the economy is still headed for a recession, but that might reinforce Fed pivot calls which still seems to be driving some inflows back into equities. ​ ​ ​ Super Thursday will resume after the close when Apple and Amazon report after the bell. ​ ​ This is peak earnings season and at the end of the day, we will know if investors are going to shun tech stocks for a little while longer. ​ Facebook takes a hit Mark Zuckerberg is looking reckless here. Meta shares plunged after revenue collapsed and they decided to nearly double their CAPEX. ​ It looks like Sheryl Sandberg’s departure was well-timed as this ship is clearly sinking. ​ Artificial Intelligence (AI) investment was boosted and now everyone is expecting Meta to have a free cash flow problem. Caterpillar Caterpillar did not disappoint this earnings season. ​ The heavy-equipment maker did everything right last quarter. ​ Caterpillar posted a strong earnings beat, trimmed their CAPEX budget a little, signaled demand is strong and that highlighted that margins momentum will continue next quarter. ​ Caterpillar also noted ‘some pockets’ of supply chain improvement. What was also very positive is that Asia/Pacific sales were little changed despite the slowdowns that have hit that part of the world. ECB The ECB delivered a third major consecutive rate increase across all three key rates. ​ The 75-basis point hike was well-telegraphed and the comment that “inflation remains far too high” indicates more massive rate increases could be warranted. They signaled they expect to raise rates further and markets are still convinced that they could raise rates by 75bp again in December. It seems the market is convinced that the ECB’s hiking cycle won’t have to be as aggressive next year and traders are now expecting rates to peak at around the 2.75% level. TLTRO changes signals they are going to remove some of the excess liquidity and incentivize the banks to pay back cheap loans before rates go up. US GDP and more The US economy appears to have bounced back from those two negative GDP readings with a solid 2.6% improvement in economic activity. The strong headline number is welcome news, but when you dig into the numbers it is clear that an economic slowdown is here. The international trade component helped this quarter and that obviously won’t continue going forward. ​ Consumer spending is softening and prices are coming down quickly. ​ Business investment is clearly weakening. ​ ​ The labor market remains tight as jobless claims edged slightly higher. Hiring freezes will become a growing trend across corporate America, but layoffs still seem distant as job openings still remain healthy. FX Fed expectations still widely expect a 75 basis point rate increase next week and for a downshift to a half-point in December. ​ The Fed won’t want to lock itself into softening its stance against fighting inflation before the data confirms pricing relief. ​ The economy is slowing and that is sending Treasury yields lower as recession bets grow. ​ Safe-haven flows are powering both the yen and dollar today as global recession risks grow. Oil Crude prices are rallying after the US economy bounced back last quarter. ​ Oil’s gains are capped as the key takeaway from this morning’s swathe of economic readings is that an economic slowdown is here. ​ The dollar remains volatile but safe-haven flows should keep it supported over the short-term and possibly leading up to next week’s FOMC decision. Gold Gold prices aren’t doing much today after the ECB rate decision and a swathe of US data confirmed a global economic slowdown is here. ​ Global bond yields are heading lower and that is good news for bullion, but a major move seems like it might have to wait until next week’s FOMC decision. Cryptos Bitcoin’s rally has run out of steam. ​ Momentum from the rally above the $20,000 level has stalled out as risk appetite struggles to find solid footing post earnings and US economic data. The global crypto market cap is flirting with the $1 trillion level and that might remain a hard barrier to break away from. Bitcoin seems likely to consolidate leading up to the FOMC decision, but it could see further strength if the dollar continues to soften. ​ If Wall Street grows more concerned with the economic outlook, rates could slide even further, which is great news for crypto. ​ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. OANDA - Super Thursday! Massive earnings day, US GDP, ECB raises rates, FX, crypto momentum stalls - MarketPulseMarketPulse

CNY rises again as USD finds renewed support ahead of next week's FOMC meeting Source: shutterstock Macro outlook Global markets: Expectations for Fed tightening continue to be pared back ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. The May 23 Fed funds contract implied rate is now 4.74%. It was more than 5% earlier this month. This has also pulled back yields on Treasuries. 2Y Yields fell 13bp yesterday. 10y yields are now 3.919% after dropping 8.4bp overnight. There don’t seem to be any obvious catalysts for this. It is the blackout period so there are no Fed speakers. Falling reverse repo usage may be an indicator that the Fed could at least slow the pace of QT, but other than that, it looks mostly like speculation ahead of the FOMC meeting for some “pivot” hints. Despite the softer yield environment, the USD has caught a small bid and has pushed back below parity with the EUR, maybe benefiting from a softer equity backdrop too as the NASDAQ had another bad day ( -1.63%), following some softer sales guidance from Amazon. Equity futures are also still looking soft, so the current sentiment looks likely to persist through today. The USD was slightly stronger against most of the G-10 currencies,  though the JPY has held onto the ground it made yesterday. Asian FX is split, with the CNY bouncing higher after its plunge yesterday, weakening back to 7.229. The KRW and TWD, both of which topped the Asian FX pack yesterday will likely soften into today’s trading. G-7 Macro: As widely predicted, the ECB hiked the refi-rate by 75bp yesterday, taking it to 2%. This note From our Head Of Macro Research, Carsten Brzeski, summarises the decision and press conference. But in short, the ECB is not done with hiking yet as it moves closer to a restrictive rate setting. We also had 3Q22 US GDP data yesterday, which delivered a bigger-than-expected bounce back of 2.6% (saar). Though as our Chief US Economist, James Knightley states, “the outlook is deteriorating rapidly”. Today, we get preliminary October inflation data from Germany, which may continue to creep higher according to the consensus view.  3Q22 GDP for Germany is also released and should register a decline from the previous quarter, taking Germany one step closer to an official recession.  US September personal income and spending data don’t add much to the stock of macro knowledge and can probably be glossed over, though the University of Michigan consumer confidence data and inflation outlook will be worth a look. And finally, the BoJ meets today. As usual, nothing is likely to happen here, especially now the JPY is off its recent highs (see below).   Japan: Headline Tokyo CPI inflation rose quite sharply to 3.5% YoY in October (vs 2.8% in September, market consensus 3.3%). The core inflation rate excluding fresh food also hit 3.4%, the highest level since 1989. We don't think this morning’s much faster rate of inflation will change the BoJ's policy decision today. The BoJ takes a different view than the ECB. If inflation is not driven by demand-side factors, they will not change the easy policy stance and it seems like they believe this will maintain their credibility. Meanwhile, PM Kishida announced a 29.1 trillion yen extra budget. Including local government spending, the number adds up to 71.6 trillion yen.  South Korea: The authorities continue to calm down money markets by providing easier measures on policies. The BoK also eased some of its micro-policy measures. The BoK will temporarily (for three months starting Nov 1st) accept bonds issued by banks and nine state-owned companies such as KEPCO and KOGAS, as eligible collateral for banks borrowing money from the central bank. The plan to raise the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) from 70% to 80% will be postponed by three months to May 2023. The BoK will also carry out a temporary RP (until the end of January 2023) with an estimated amount of 6 trillion KRW.  The government also announced plans to ease mortgage terms from early next year. We think this will help ease market nervousness, but the housing market will continue to cool for the time being given that mortgage rates are now reaching 7%. What to look out for: US sentiment and core PCE Tokyo CPI inflation (28 October) Bank of Japan policy meeting (28 October) Australia PPI inflation (28 October) Taiwan GDP (28 October) US personal spending, core PCE and Univ of Michigan sentiment (28 October) Read this article on THINK TagsEmerging Markets Asia Pacific Asia Markets Asia Economics Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

China PMIs in the spotlight today as Covid cases rise again Source: shutterstock Macro outlook Global markets: US Stocks finished last week on a winning streak after 4 out of five days of gains for the S&P500 (even the one down day was fairly muted The index rose 2.46%, while the NASDAQ, which had been hit over the week by soft earnings and sales projections from major firms, rose 2.87%). The same cannot be said of Chinese stocks. The CSI300 finished down most days last week including Friday. US Equity futures are pointing to an essentially flat open today, with only a slight downward bias, which should leave most Asian markets (though perhaps not those in China) open to gains today. Currency markets (and bond markets) aren’t quite in synch with equities. EURUSD edged fractionally lower to 0.9959 and the AUD is back to just above 64 cents, while Cable is barely higher at 1.1599 while the JPY has returned to weakening, reaching 147.66. In other Asian FX space, moves have been quite muted, with the CNY showing the most weakness, moving up to 7.2524 from 7.229. The KRW was also soft, rising to 1421.60. At the other end of the spectrum, the PHP gained 0.43% on Friday taking it to 57.98. There were further outsize moves on bond markets at the end of last week. The 2Y US Treasury yield surged back by 14bp, as pivot doubts set back in, and 10Y US Treasury yields rose 9.4bp to 4.012%. G-7 macro:  Friday’s data releases included German October CPI inflation, which rose more than expected to 10.4% from 10.0% in September. The equivalent harmonised index inflation rate rose to 11.6% YoY.  In contrast, in the US, the PCE deflator inflation rate for September rose slightly less than expected, coming in flat at 6.2% YoY, while the core rate also slightly undershot expectations, rising only to 5.1% from 4.9% (5.2% expected).  University of Michigan 1Y inflation expectations also drifted off by 0.1pp to 5.0%, while the 5Y rate remained at 2.9%. None of which really fits in with the price action in the bond market on Friday. Today, Eurozone CPI due today will likely go the same way as the October German figures, namely rising, with some upside risk to the consensus forecast of a 10.3%YoY rate. German retail sales for September are expected to fall sharply. It’s a pretty quiet day for US data. China: PMIs for October will be released this morning at 09:30 Hong Kong / Singapore time. The data could show a mixed bag of growth and contraction in sub-indices of both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs. There was a long holiday in October, which should lead to increases in retail and travel on a monthly basis. This should also result in stable month-on-month manufacturing even though October is still the peak-export season in China. Adding more complications is the number of covid cases, which climbed towards the end of October and should lead to a fall in activity in the last week of October. Adding up all these factors means there is more uncertainty in the economy. The number of Covid cases has climbed and some infection cases from a Foxconn factory have returned to their hometowns, which may increase the number of Covid cases further in the less healthcare-equipped rural areas. This will drag on production and exports for the economy in November. Depending on the number of Covid cases in big cities and therefore the scale of possible lockdowns, we should be cautious about the growth prospect of the economy in the coming months. Korea: September IP was weaker than expected, and also weaker than what last week’s 3QGDP had suggested. Manufacturing IP contracted -1.8% MoM in September (vs -1.4% revised August, -0.8% market consensus), recording the third monthly drop. Weakness in September was mainly driven by semiconductors (-4.5%) and basic metals (-15.7%). POSCO closed some facilities due to a typhoon in September and expects to gradually recover within a few months. Service sector output, which was the driver of growth, declined -0.3% in September (vs 1.8% in August) with retail/wholesale and health/social welfare down -2.1% and -1.0%, respectively. The forward-looking orders data was a bit mixed. Machinery orders declined in September but still recorded a solid gain in three-month sequential terms. For construction orders, these rebounded sharply in September, mainly led by non-residential construction such as factories, warehouses, and civil engineering. Japan: Monthly activity data has been mixed. September Industrial production declined -1.6%MoM sa in September (vs 3.4% in August, -0.8% market consensus). In contrast, retail sales were stronger than expected (+1.1% in September vs 1.4% in August, 0.8% market consensus) with motor vehicles and household machines up sharply by 11.1% and 14.6% respectively.   India: Fiscal deficit numbers for September are due later today. The deficit tally has been broadly keeping track with what is needed to meet the Government’s 6.4% (GDP) deficit target for the fiscal year, so the appropriate metric here is how they perform relative to last year’s equivalent release, which came in at INR58,852 Crore. Australia: September retail sales rose by 0.6%MoM, higher than expected, and maintaining a strong run of readings. Floods in October in SE Australia may provide a speedbump. But for now, these numbers show few signs that spending is slowing enough to bring prices down.  What to look out for South Korea industrial production (31 October) Japan retail sales (31 October) Australia retail sales (31 October) China PMI manufacturing and non-manufacturing (31 October) Thailand trade (31 October) South Korea trade (1 November) Indonesia CPI inflation (1 November) US ISM manufacturing and JOLTS (1 November) South Korea inflation (2 November) Australia building approvals (2 November) Australia trade balance (2 November) US trade balance, durable goods orders and initial jobless claims (2 November) Japan Jibun PMI (3 November) Philippine trade and inflation (3 November) Thailand CPI inflation (3 November) Singapore retail sales (3 November) US non-farm payrolls (3 November) Read this article on THINK TagsAsia Pacific Asia Markets Asia Economics Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Paramount Global missed Q3 consensus on top and bottom lines. PARA shares have sold off 10% after the earnings announcement. Streaming subscribers and revenue improved during the quarter. Paramount Global (PARA) collapsed 10% on Wednesday morning after unleashing a none-to-good quarterly report for the third quarter. The stock is now trading at a new all-time low of $17.25, although shares of the media company dropped below $17 in the premarket. Paramount Global earnings news Paramount missed Wall Street consensus for adjusted earnings per share (EPS) by 5 cents after the figure came in at $0.39. That number is down 48.7% compared with the same quarter in 2021. The bottom line figure was greatly affected by a $169 million charge for restructuring and other corporate needs. Revenue of $6.92 billion rose nearly 5% YoY but missed consensus by $130 million. Subscription revenue did improve, but investments in content and international expansion took that growth and then some. Advertising revenue in the company's broadcast TV division dropped 2% YoY, which management blamed on the macro picture. Total direct-to-consumer subscriptions, such as streaming, rose to 67 million customers. This segment includes Paramount+, PlutoTV and BET+. Paramount+ added 4.6 million subscribers during the third quarter, increasing revenue in the process by 95% YoY. Paramount Global stock forecast As already stated, PARA stock is at an all-time low. When this happens, there are no historical price levels to measure against, so instead we have to use the financial equivalent of alchemy – Fibonacci levels. As we have it, PARA has found early support on Wednesday at the 50% Fibo level, which in point of fact is not actually part of the Fibonacci sequence. A better estimate for the near-term bottom would be the 61.8% Fibo at $16.13. The 78.6% level at $15.05 also might be eyed by bears. Regardless, if PARA does bounce off of one of these levels, then expect a move toward the 23.6% Fibo level at $18.57. PARA daily chart

Roku cut Q4 revenue guidance by $94 million. ROKU stock has slid 20% on the outlook. ROKU share price is trading at January 2019 level. Roku (ROKU) stock appears ready to open on Thursday down a hefty 20%. The streaming company stock has sold off severely on the back of fourth-quarter guidance well below Wall Street's expectations. Management is now guiding for $800 million in Q4 revenue, while analysts had a consensus figure of $894 million. That latter consensus figure was already cut dramatically by about $300 million this year, so subsequent guidance below that level stunned the market. The share price of the pandemic favorite is now off 91% from its high of $490 back in July 2021. Roku earnings results For the third quarter, Roku delivered a GAAP earnings per share of $-0.88. This was much better than consensus of $-1.23 however. Revenue also outperformed earlier guidance, coming in at $761 million. That figure was about $68 million ahead of the forecast average. Revenue grew 12% YoY. Costs for the company ballooned, however. The Q3 operating loss of $147 million was much worse than the $69 million operating profit from Q3 2021. "Platform revenue was up 15% YoY to $670 million, representing 88% of total revenue," said CFO Steve Louden. "While platform revenue came in above our expectations and was a positive given the difficult macro environment, the advertising business continues to grow more slowly than our beginning of year forecast due to the current weakness in the overall TV ad market and the ad-scatter market in particular." Louden has found a successor CFO and will be leaving Roku shortly. Besides the worrisome lowered revenue guidance for Q4, management also said the fourth quarter loss could balloon to $-1.75, about 60 cents worse than earlier projections. Roku added 2.3 million new accounts during the third quarter for a total of 65.4 million. Average Revenue Per User (ARPU), however, grew by just 15 cents to $44.25. This is much slower growth than shareholders had gotten used to. During the pandemic, ARPU rose as much as $12 YoY during some quarters. Roku stock forecast The 91% drop-off in Roku's share price is one of the worst performances of any large-cap stock during 2022's tyrannical bear market. Readers will remember that Roku stock actually peaked in July 2021 several months before many of its peers, which mostly peaked in November. By November of 2021, Roku stock had already reached oversold levels on the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI). Now with its share price in the low $40s, Roku is trading at this price level for the first time since January 2019. There is only one historical support level here, which can be seen on the weekly chart below. The $27 price level was the December 2018 low four years ago. At this point, ROKU shares have been bouncing in and out of oversold levels for a year now, while the share price has continued to sink. At the moment ROKU is not even at oversold levels, because the RSI is "relative". There are no positives here. Despite Roku selling for two times the revenue, the chart leads us to believe that Roku will not bounce back anytime soon. ROKU weekly chart

US rate expectations rising, Asian FX weakening ahead of non-farm payrolls Source: shutterstock Macro outlook Global Markets: US Treasury yields continued their upward march yesterday, continuing the move started after the Fed meeting on Wednesday. The May 2023 Fed funds contract is implying a rate of 5.14% now, up from 5.10% yesterday and 5.0% a few days earlier. And the end-2023 implied rates aren’t much lower than this, as the "pivot" is priced out. . These implied rate increases are being reflected in 2Y Treasury yields, which rose a further 9.4bp to 4.714% yesterday, and the 10Y yield also rose 4.6bp to 4.147%. Higher rates and yields are taking their toll on the US stock market. The S&P500 and NASDAQ fell 1.06% and 1.73% respectively yesterday. Equity futures are signalling the prospect of further modest declines today ahead of the non-farm payrolls release (and as this is on today's calendar, actually means that anything is possible by the close). These Treasury moves have also fed through to further USD strength. EURUSD is now back down to 0.9749, the AUD is back below 63 cents, and Cable has dropped to 1.1168. The JPY is also a little weaker at 148.30. Asian FX was weaker across the board yesterday and further losses look probable today. The THB and SGD led the region’s declines yesterday. G-7 Macro: Yesterday the Bank of England raised Bank Rate by 75bp as widely expected. Though they also signalled that markets were overestimating the extent of further rate hikes. Our UK economist, James Smith, does not expect rates to go above 4% next year. The October US service sector ISM came in weaker than expected, dropping from 56.7 to 54.4. Within the survey, there was a disappointing increase in the prices paid component, which rose to 70.7 from 68.7. But the employment index dropped into contraction territory at 49.1 from 53.0, which may indicate that the US labour market is now beginning to turn as a result of the Fed’s rate increases. The consensus view for today’s US October labour market report is for an increase in employment of 195,000 and for the unemployment rate to nose up from 3.5% to 3.6%.  Average hourly earnings are predicted to rise at a 4.7% pace, down from 5.0% in September. Taiwan: Central bank governor Yang's comment on Taiwan's future rate hike speed vs the Fed was that "Taiwan and US are different, US has its own (economic) background, so does Taiwan, (we) need to base on the (economic) situation, and no need to follow the same hike magnitude of the Fed". We believe the remarks do not imply that there will not be any more rate hikes for Taiwan but, instead, confirm the smaller hike steps we expect for Taiwan. Our forecast is for a 12.5bp hike for Taiwan in December to 1.75% from the current 1.625%. We expect USDTWD to largely follow the trend of EUR for the rest of 2022. Singapore: Retail sales for September are set for release today.  We expect retail sales to slow from the previous month but still manage to post a decent expansion. The return of tourists may be providing a boost to retail sales,  but elevated prices should continue to cap retail sales growth in the near term Philippines: October inflation numbers are out today.  The market consensus points to a 7.1%YoY increase in prices but we believe we could see inflation rise well above this.  Food inflation will likely drive up the headline number higher after a recent storm caused substantial crop damage.  Meanwhile, transport costs will also be a major contributor to price pressures after transport fares were adjusted higher by roughly 9%. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas pre-announced their 17 November policy move yesterday but elevated inflation means the central bank will stay hawkish for the rest of the year. What to look out for: US jobs report Japan Jibun PMI (4 November) Philippine trade and inflation (4 November) Thailand CPI inflation (4 November) Singapore retail sales (4 November) US non-farm payrolls (4 November) Read this article on THINK TagsEmerging Markets Asia Pacific Asia Markets Asia Economics Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

ETF (exchange-traded fund) a type of passive fund that is designed to reflect the behavior of specific indices, or sectors. With this, we can achieve exposure to a particular market, sector or country while keeping costs low. Thanks to this, we don't have to buy, for example, all 500 companies in the S&P 500 index. So we decided to check which of these funds could achieve the most interesting results in the last 3 months. Fund performance Of the 200 funds surveyed, 24 percent had a positive return. The average volatility of the fund, measured by standard deviation, during the period was 15.12 percent. The largest index, the S&P 500, fell 7.17 percent during the period, reaching a volatility of 12.24 percent. It seems that based on this information, we can see the current moment of the business cycle. The best of the best If we wanted to juxtapose the best winners, we could compare their rates of return. However, it seems that such a comparison does not take into account the risk aspect of a given investment. For this purpose, we will use the Sharpe ratio, that is, the relationship of the achieved rate of return to the level of total risk (standard deviation), to measure the effectiveness of the investment. For this indicator, it is assumed that values above 50% are considered to be an outperformance of the market average over a long period.The iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (TUR) had the highest return, at 47.68 percent over the past quarter. The fund is designed to seek to track the investment performance of a broad index composed of Turkish stocks. It consists of 27.16 percent Turkish industrial companies and 19.47 percent material processing companies. The result of significant growth may have been influenced by rising inflation, which currently stands at, as much as 85.51 percent. Despite such a high decline in the value of the Turkish lira, the dollar-denominated ETF achieved such a result. Sharp for the period was 220.46 percent. Source: MT5, TUR, WeeklyThe second best return was achieved by the VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH). The fund is designed to track the overall performance of companies listed in the United States and engaged in upstream oil services, which include oil equipment, oil services or drilling. Consisting of 25 companies, the fund's performance in the most recent quarter was 44.67 percent, with the Sharpe ratio at 185.51 percent. It appears that such strong performance may have been due to the oil market.In the final podium spot was the Invesco Energy S&P US Select Sector UCITS ETF (XLES), which, like its predecessor, mimics the performance of the US energy sector. This fund consisting of companies from the S&P 500 (US500) index, unlike its predecessor, is geared only towards energy companies. During the period under review, it achieved a performance of 29.77 percent with a Sharpe ratio of 182.51 percent. The result also seems to have been influenced by the price of oil The safest Among the funds with positive returns and the lowest volatility was the Xtrackers MSCI Japan UCITS ETF (XMUJ). A fund that gives exposure to key Japanese companies that hold a minimum of 85 percent of a given market. In addition, this dollar-denominated fund hedges against changes in the dollar-Japanese yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate. Volatility during the quarter under review was only 6.05 percent, and the fund was up 1.15 percent despite fluctuations in Japan's main NIKKEI 225 (JP225) index. The Sharpe ratio was 18.99 percent during the period under review. Source: MT5, XMUJ, DailyThe iShares MSCI India UCITS ETF (NDIA), which seems to have been growing rapidly for years, came in second with exposure to the Indian economy. What may seem interesting is that it is 24.73 percent composed of companies in the financial industry. In second place in terms of weight are companies from the information technology industry accounting for 15.02 percent of the fund. The volatility for the stated period was 8.09 percent with a performance of 3.47 percent. This gives a performance-to-volatility ratio (Sharpe's) of 42.89 percent.Specially highlighted ones include the AXS First Priority CLO Bond ETF (AAA), which boasts a volatility of just 0.91 percent despite a -0.98 percent drop in value. Sharp Under normal circumstances, this fund invests at least 80 percent of its assets in AAA-rated tranches of top-priority debt backed by credit obligations. This fund can invest in bonds of any maturity. In addition, this fund is actively managed and does not seek to mimic the performance of any particular index. Most independent When we want to reduce portfolio risk, according to portfolio theory, we should look for asset classes that are least correlated with each other. We usually measure the level of dependence by the correlation level of two assets, where a correlation value of 1 means perfectly correlated assets, a value of -1 perfectly opposite correlated (when one goes up, the other goes down exactly the same amount), and a value of 0 means no dependence at all.The lowest dependency ratio relative to the largest S&P 500 index (US500) was demonstrated by the United States Oil Fund, LP (USO), which seeks to reflect changes in the price of oil by investing in futures contracts on this commodity with various maturities. After a period of three months, the fund achieved a return of 6.02 percent with a risk of 18.87 percent. The correlation index (correlation) was 0.24, which may indicate a low correlation to the broad market. The Sharpe for this fund was 31.93 percent. Source: MT5, USO, DailyAuthor: Grzegorz Dróżdż, a Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75,21% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Read the article on Conotoxia.com

This inflation report was a nice surprise. ​ Inflation has been very slow to come down, but this report gives up hope that this deceleration with pricing pressures might bring back hopes of a soft landing. The headline reading came in lower-than-expected, but most traders were focused with the month-over-month decline with core prices. ​ If this downward trajectory for inflation holds, then you can make a strong case that the bottom is in place for US equities. US stocks are rallying as Wall Street finally sees light at the end of the Fed’s tightening cycle tunnel. ​ This cool inflation report helped stocks post their best trading day in two years. ​ Treasury yields are in freefall, the dollar is tanking, and practically every risky asset is rejoicing over this inflation report. ​ ​ Inflation ​ ​ ​  Inflation has peaked but don’t hold your breath waiting for it to get to target. Inflation is cooling after the core reading only posted a 0.3% monthly increase. ​ The headline reading dropped more than expected to 7.7% from a year ago, which is noticeably better than the peak reading from June of 9.1%. Inflation almost always proves to be stickier, so traders should not be surprised if the descent in pricing pressures takes a little while longer. Good prices have been coming down and that was supported by lower readings from cars, apparel, and energy services. ​ Wall Street is closely watching shelter prices, which rose 0.8%, the most since 1990. ​ There was some optimism with housing affordability as the monthly gains slowed for rents. ​ Shelter prices always take the longest to come down, so investors will expect this key contributor to core PCE to remain hot for another quarter. ​ This inflation was a good sign that the Fed is on the right path to winning this war with inflation, but there will still be a lot of variables thrown its way over the next couple of quarters. ​ The Fed could easily bring rates to 5.00% and if inflation proves to be stickier, it could be as high as 5.50%. ​ FX King dollar has left the building after a soft inflation report cemented the Fed’s downshift to a slower pace of tightening and revived hopes of a soft landing. The price reaction to this inflation report was a bit excessive but could be justified if the next couple of inflation reports are just as cool. ​ ​ ​ ​ Cryptos A dark crypto period was supposed to begin following the FTX debacle, but a cooler-than-expected inflation report gave every risky asset a massive boost. ​ FTX contagion risks remain elevated and while today’s broad-based crypto rally is rather impressive with bitcoin rising over 10% and ethereum surging by 16%, investment into cryptocurrencies will likely struggle here as too many key institutional investors and crypto companies have money tied up with the bankruptcy bound exchange. ​ Until we see which players were impacted by FTX and if we see other exchanges vulnerable to a liquidity crunch, any crypto rebound might be faded. More details about the actions of FTX will lead to harsher regulatory guidelines for all crypto exchanges. ​ Reportedly FTX used customer assets for risky trades, which means it seems unlikely anyone will want to rescue this company. ​ ​ ​ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Inflation cools, stocks post best day in two years, bye-bye king dollar, FTX debacle, cryptos rally on soft CPI - MarketPulseMarketPulse

As we slowly approach the end of the results season, we found ourselves with elections for the Senate and House of Representatives in the United States, after which we would find out whether Joe Biden's party would retain its majority in those chambers. In addition, we encountered a slump in the cryptocurrency market caused by the problems of the FTX exchange. Macroeconomic data This week it seems that we were able to relax relatively after last week's FOMC decision to raise interest rates in the United States and the announced use of all means by the Fed to choke off inflation. On Wednesday, we learned of the change in U.S. crude oil inventories, which rose by 3.25 million barrels (1.36 million barrels were expected) compared to the last period, in which they declined by 3.115 million barrels. We learned the results of the CPI inflation rate, which amounted to 7.7% y/y. (forecast 8 percent y/y). It seems that inflation surprises for another month in a row, falling, which could be perceived as a positive signal for the markets. Elections for the Senate and House of Representatives in the United States were held on Tuesday. The vote counting is still underway, but Republicans are in the lead in both chambers. Stock market On Monday, we were able to learn the results of gaming giants Activision Blizzard (Blizzard) and Take-Two (TakeTwo), among others. The former surprised positively, reporting earnings per share EPS of 0.68 (forecast 0.51). The second posted a loss per share EPS of -1.54 (forecast 1.38), in addition to reporting lower revenue than expected. Source: MT5, Blizzard, Daily On Tuesday, we learned the results of media giant Walt Disney (Disney), which reported a decline in earnings per share EPS to 0.3 (forecast 0.59). It seems that the entertainment industry is not doing well, which could support the thesis of the current economic slowdown. Today we were also able to learn how the medical industry has performed recently. Among other things, we learned about reports from the maker of medications and vaccines AstraZeneca (AstraZeneca), which showed earnings per share more than doubled relative to expectations. Medical instrument and machine manufacturer Becton Dickinson (BDickinson) showed earnings per share of 1.99, in line with expectations, on increased revenues. Elon Musk appears to be having problems with his workforce after taking over Twitter. After massive layoffs at the company, we could learn from the media about mistakes in this aspect and the dismissal of valuable employees, whom the billionaire seems to be trying to recruit back. Currency and cryptocurrency market After the publication of inflation from the US, the EUR/USD exchange rate broke out above parity and reached around 1.016 at its peak. It seems that the market needs to update its valuation when it comes to the announced US interest rate hikes, which may put pressure on the USD. Source: MT5, EURUSD, Daily Blood has been shed in the cryptocurrency market. After the largest crypto exchange Binance announced the sale of the FTT token (FTTUSD.p) belonging to the third largest FTX exchange, the price of the cryptocurrency fell from $26 to $2.7 (89 percent). This situation revealed the problems behind this exchange. This seems to have led to a massive outflow of capital from the virtual money market, as we could see from the largest of them. Bitcoin fell by more than 20 percent during this period, and the price of the second largest cryptocurrency ETH fell by about 28 percent. Source: MT5, FTTUSD.p, Daily What's in store for us next week? On Monday we would learn the GDP reading in the Cherry Blossom country. The current quarter-on-quarter forecast is for growth of 0.3 percent (previously 0.9 percent). China's reported year-on-year change in industrial production may seem key. The forecast, according to analysts, is for an increase of 5.2 percent (previously 6.3 percent). On Tuesday, we'll learn the results of Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index, which recently reached -59.2 points, where values below zero signify deteriorating economic conditions. On Thursday, we would find out how much inflation in the Eurozone was (forecast at 10.7 percent). Among the key Q3 earnings reports it seems we could count Monday's results from the largest retailer in the United States, Walmart (Walmart). On Tuesday, graphics card giant Nvidia (Nvidia) would present its report, along with one of the largest digital communications technology conglomerates Cisco (Cisco).Grzegorz Dróżdż, Junior Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75,21% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Read the article on Conotoxia.com

China boosts sentiment with plans for the property sector and measures to lessen the economic impact of zero Covid Source: shutterstock Macro outlook Global Markets: US stocks had another positive day on Friday continuing the positive momentum that the October CPI reading provided earlier in the week. The S&P500 rose 0.92%, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ rose 1.88%. Equity futures are signalling that this is far enough for now, though, and are indicating a small decline at the open. Asian equity futures are mostly signalling a positive start to trading today. With the public holiday on Friday in the US, there is no information from US Treasuries to input into the market moves of other assets, but in spite of this, EURUSD went in the direction of the equity markets on Friday, rising to 1.0327,  the AUD rose above 0.67, though has dropped back just below that level in early trading. Cable is sitting almost on top of 1.18 and the JPY is below 140 (139.30 at the time of writing). The Asia-Pacific currencies have made strong gains, most notably the high-beta KRW and THB. G-7 Macro: The G-20 conference in Bali, Indonesia, starts tomorrow. With the US and Russia unlikely to agree to anything substantive at this summit, the prospects for anything very useful are limited. Presidents Xi and Biden are expected to meet. North Korea’s recent missile belligerence will be raised. Later this week, the new UK Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, will outline the UK government’s proposals to balance Britan's books. Spending cuts and tax increases look inevitable.  There are no notable macro releases in the G-7 today. China: China has released a 16-point plan to support the beleaguered property sector as well as a 20-point plan for reducing the economic costs of containing Covid. The moves will clearly provide some further support to China’s economy, though have to be factored in against the rising Covid case numbers being seen across the country. This is probably more relevant for the medium-term outlook. But it's an encouraging development. Further supportive changes cannot be ruled out.    India: India publishes October inflation data later today, and we are in line with the consensus in looking for the inflation rate to drop back below 7% YoY (6.7% expected, down from 7.4% in September). While this still leaves inflation above the top of the RBI’s 4%+/-2% target range, it means that we can start to think about a slower pace of tightening at the December meeting, with perhaps just one more 25bp hike in early 2023 before the RBI can take stock and pause. What to look out for: China activity data India CPI inflation (14 November) Philippines remittances (14-17 November) Japan GDP and industrial production (15 November) Australia RBA minutes (15 November) China activity data (15 November) Indonesia trade balance (15 November) US empire manufacturing and PPI inflation (15 November) Fed's Brainard, Harker, Cook and Williams speak (15 November) Japan core machine orders (16 November) Australia Westpac leading index and wage price index (16 November) US retail sales (16 November) Fed's Williams and Barr peak (16 November) Japan trade balance (17 November) Australia labor data (17 November) Singapore NODX (17 November) Malaysia trade (17 November) Bank Indonesia policy meeting (17 November) Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas policy meeting (17 November) US housing starts and initial jobless claims (17 November) Fed's Waller, Bullard, Bowman and Mester speak (17November) Japan CPI inflation (18 November) US existing home sales (18 November) Fed's Kashkari speaks (18November) Read this article on THINK TagsEmerging Markets Asia Pacific Asia Markets Asia Economics Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

After Elon Musk took over Twitter, along with delisting the company's shares (delisting), he introduced an option to buy confirming account authentication with the Twitter Blue stamp for $8. As it turned out, this feature was used against US pharmaceutical company Eli Lilly (EliLilly), whose market value fell by nearly $20 billion. The situation on the Twitter platform In a post dated Friday, November 11, the impersonators wrote: "We are excited to announce insulin is free now." After the incident, ELI Lilly's share price fell by more than 5 percent. Only by the end of the day we could already read the following Tweet on the company's official profile: "We apologize to those who have been served a misleading message from a fake Lilly account. Our official Twitter account is @LillyPad."It seems that such events, where an asset rose or fell significantly after a Twitter post, we might have associated more with the cryptocurrency market or the tweets of Elon Musk himself. Interestingly, a similar event befell defense and aerospace company giant Lockheed Martin (Lockheed) on the same day. Source: MT5, Lockheed, Daily A bargain in the market, or a legitimate discount? The manufacturer of, among other things, insulin, or a vaccine for polio disease, which has been in existence since 1876, boasts Q3 revenues for this year of $29.24 billion, an increase y/y. of 2.5 percent, and operating profit (EBIT) of $7.2 billion (down 10.85 percent y/y). However, the company boasts a very good profitability (ROE) of 64 percent. According to Statista, the average profitability for the drug manufacturer sector in 2022 is 16.97 percent. This gives us a result more than 47 percentage points above the industry average. In addition, the company appears to classify itself as a passive company paying a regular dividend, which averages 1 percent of the share price per quarter.The current macroeconomic situation does not seem to have a negative impact on the company's stock price, whose shares have risen from a price of about $270 to $352 (30% YTD) since the beginning of the year. The annual risk for this company, as measured by standard deviation, was 28.04 percent, where it was 24.61 percent for the main S&P 500 index (US500) during the period. The maximum decline from local peaks (Drowdown) was 13.63 percent, compared to 25 percent for the S&P 500.In addition, the company's shares appear to present a correlation to the broad market of 0.48, which we could interpret that the company is moderately dependent on the market situation. What does Wall Street think of Eli Lilly's stock price? According to Market Screener, the company has 23 recommendations, most of which are buy recommendations. The average target price is set at $364.29, more than 3 percent higher than the last closing price. The highest target price is at $441, and the lowest is $202.Given the current situation, which seems to have no impact on the company's operations. The overvaluation of the stock after the entry from the fake account seems to be a signal for the price to return to pre-decline levels. Source: MT5, EliLilly, WeeklyAuthor: Grzegorz Dróżdż, a Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75,21% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Read the article on Conotoxia.com

I think we will see the bear trend resume from 4000/4020. Nasdaq December shorts at key resistance today at 11850/950 are starting to work. A good chance the market has ended the counter trend correction & the bear trend resumes from here. Emini Dow Jones futures have recovered 61.8% of the losses for 2022. Incredible! The index is only down 3000 ticks or 8% from the all time high. 3 neutral candles indicate the recovery has run out of steam. Remember when support is broken it usually acts as resistance & vice-versa. Update daily by 06:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Emini S&P December holding Fibonacci resistance at 4000/4020 yesterday starts to put bears in control. Minor support at 3970/60 has also held (as we trade sideways as predicted) but below a break below 3960 is likely today for a sell signal targeting strong support at 3925/15. A low for the day expected if test but longs need stops below 3900. A break below here is an important sell signal. Fibonacci resistance at 4000/4020 but we also have strong resistance at 4070/80 & shorts need stops above 4090. Nasdaq December could be nearing the end of the recovery now as we reverse from key resistance at 11850/950. Again shorts need stops above 12100. Bulls need a sustained break above 12100 for a buy signal. Our shorts at key resistance at 11850/950 held first support at 11750/700 perfectly yesterday but a break below 11700 is expected soon for a sell signal targeting 11580/540, perhaps as far as 11400/350. Emini Dow Jones tests resistance at 33700/800 & our shorts need stops above 34050. A break higher targets 32230/250. Our shorts at 33700/800 target 33400/350 but we should eventually continue lower for 33200 & support at 32800/700.

On Wednesday, we were able to learn about the Q3 financial report of the software giant Nvidia Corp. (Nvidia), a technology company that develops software and processors, among other things. Although the recent environment seemed unfavourable, the financial results may have positively surprised analysts. Is Nvidia's performance dependent on cryptocurrencies? Along with Intel and AMD, Nvidia is one of the top three suppliers of processors and graphics cards. It seems that one of its revenue drivers is the sale of chips, used especially in graphics cards. It could be thought that, due to their computing power, they were mainly bought by cryptocurrency 'miners' in recent years. Following recent problems and the bankruptcy of one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges, bitcoin (BTC/USD) has seen a decline of more than 76% since its peaks. Read next: Many sued in FTX scandal, Elon Musk to reduce his time at Twitter, EU stocks edged higher on Thursday| FXMAG.COM However, Nvidia states: "We believe the recent transition in verifying Ethereum cryptocurrency transactions from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake has reduced the utility of GPUs for cryptocurrency mining." This category, according to the report, makes up around 1.2% of revenue, illustrating how small this segment is for the company. Source: Conotoxia MT5, BTCUSD, Weekly The company's Q3 revenue was US$5.93 billion (US$5.77 billion was expected), down y-o-y. by 22%. Cloud computing power sales service accounted for as much as 65% of the company's revenue and sales. This increased by 29% year-on-year. In second place was revenue from the gaming sector, accounting for 26% of revenue, but recording a decline of 51%, which appears to be the aftermath of the pandemic. With this data, we could say that Nvidia's performance does not appear to be linked to risks in the cryptocurrency market. An additional argument in favour of the independence of these assets is their correlation, which stands at 0.55 since the beginning of the year, which may indicate their low level of dependence. Earnings per share EPS for the period came in at US$0.58, below analysts' expectations (US$0.69 was expected). The company's gross margin was also negative, falling to 53.6% (previously 65.2%), which the company attributed to increased chip inventory due to falling demand in China. Maribel Lopez, principal analyst at Lopez Maribel comments: “...there is a long tail of AI workloads which will create a return to growth, but it may take several quarters ”. “The issue for Nvidia is the short term, the next several quarters will be rough. Investors will have to take a longer view, similar to what’s required with Intel." - Lopez said. What does Wall Street think of Nvidia shares? Source: Conotoxia MT5, NVDIA, Daily According to Market Screener, the company has 40 recommendations, with 'buy' opinions prevailing. The average target price is set at USD 200.93, 26% higher than the last closing price. The lowest target price is at USD 320 and the highest is USD 110. Author: Grzegorz Dróżdż, a Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75,21% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Read the article on Conotoxia.com

NVDA stock gains more than 2% after hours following Q3 earnings. Nvidia missed non-GAAP EPS consensus by 17%. Management expects Q4 revenue to be higher than Q3. Nvidia (NVDA) stock gained 2.2% to $162.60 late Wednesday despite the fact that the premier chip designer in the world missed the Wall Street non-GAAP line of $0.70 a share. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) actually came in more than 17% below consensus at $0.52. "Why the advance for Nvidia price then?" you ask. It pretty much comes down to revenues. The market was expecting a third poor quarter in a row on the revenue front, but Nvidia emerged in Q3 with $5.93 billion. This was about $115 million ahead of the Street's average forecast. Nvidia earnings news The real silver lining, if you want to call it that, is that management pushed revenue expectations for Q4 higher than the present. Nvidia sales have been in a freefall for most of 2022 as many crypto miners have gone belly-up in the face of falling crypto prices and stopped buying their usual allotment of GPUs. Management, however, guided for $6 billion in Q4 sales, adding that the range was just 2% above or below that figure. The top line of that range at $6.12 billion was still about $20 million below the earlier analyst consensus, but the market has been optimistic this week. Much of that optimism is spillover from inflation data coming in soft and the US Midterm Elections having passed, but the market seems to believe that the worst is over for the semiconductor giant. Though Nvidia's share price remains down 47% year to date, NVDA stock has charged forward more than 35% in the past month. This does seem somewhat surprising, seeing as revenue is down about 17% YoY and EPS in Q3 was down by more than half over that same time period. Management's guidance for gross margin, however, also turned heads. Despite finishing the third quarter with a 56.1% adjusted gross margin, the executive said it would hit 66% in the fourth quarter. This signals to shareholders that notwithstanding the higher inventory levels reducing demand this year, Nvidia is not even close to being a price taker. While the gaming segment continues to deteriorate, down 51% YoY, data center revenue continued to outperform. Sales from that segment rose 31% YoY despite softness in China stemming from covid lockdowns. A big reason for its fall in gross margin during the quarter was a $700+ million charge caused by this lower demand from Chinese data centers. Read next: Many sued in FTX scandal, Elon Musk to reduce his time at Twitter, EU stocks edged higher on Thursday| FXMAG.COM Executives said the inability to sell its A100 and H100 data center processors to Chinese customers due to ongoing US sanctions also hurt results, but that Chinese customers instead chose to bulk up on other products. "We’re seeing surging demand in some very important sectors of AIs and important breakthroughs in AI," said CEO Jensen Huang, while noting that demand for general-purpose computing chips had slowed. "One is called deep recommender systems, which is quite essential now to the best content or item or product to recommend to somebody who’s using a device that is like a cell phone or interacting with a computer just using voice." Nvidia stock forecast Nvidia stock is beginning to trade lower in Thursday's premarket, however, alongside the broad market. Shares are off 1.4% in line with the Nasdaq Composite, so this does not seem to be a result of Nvidia's earnings. The major event has been St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard saying that a "doveish" Fed policy from this point would still require a full one percentage point hike to the fed funds rate. If the market does seek support, NVDA stock can find it at the 9-day moving average near $153. A more drastic sell-off could force it down to the 21-day average at $140. For bulls to come back into this name, Nvidia stock needs to break above the Tuesday high at $170. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is still in a bullish crossover stance, but it has begun to move sideways. NVDA 1-day chart

UK Retail sales show signs of improvement Retail sales in the UK rose by 0.6% in October compared to the expected 0.5% increase and previous 1.5% decline as British consumers managed to recover slightly despite rising inflation and the ongoing cost of living crisis. While this may appear to be a positive sign, there is still a long way to go before the economic picture begins to look brighter, particularly after yesterday's statement from Chancellor Jeremy Hunt referring to a recession. The pound is starting Friday's session attempting to hold onto some gains with GBPUSD pair testing the 1.19 area after pulling back to 1.175 yesterday. Meanwhile, the FTSE100 remains in the 7370 points area and it remains to be seen if it will be able to extend the upward move or fall further as investors continue to be uncertain. Read next: NVIDIA (NVDA) Q3 earnings results outperformed part of the markets forecasts| FXMAG.COM Twitter saga continues as offices close  Twitter's turbulent story continues after Elon Musk's company just announced the closing of its offices effective immediately until next week. The decision came as a surprise to many, including the employees who were told to comply with company policy. This adds further uncertainty and skepticism as to how the new owner intends to transform the business that took months to acquire while continuing to be a controversial figure. While Twitter stock is no longer available on the market, this is certainly an interesting situation as it could have ramifications and effects on the market as a whole with many holding varying opinions on the matter. In either case, it seems that Elon Musk is willing to take chances and act in unexpected ways if it means achieving his vision for Twitter even if it costs him employees.

NIO is advancing in Friday's premarket. The Chinese EV maker has been hurt by renewed covid worries. Two analysts downgraded Nio stock this week. Nio (NIO) stock is advancing a little over a percentage point in Friday's premarket as the Chinese automaker continues to try to make up the ground it lost on Wednesday. In the middle day of this week, Nio stock gave up 8.5% on the news that Peking University was locked down due to a single covid case. Other rumors emerged that China is experiencing a covid resurgence, with some reports stating that authorities in the industrial hub of Guangzhou had set up temporary treatment centers and quarantine facilities. This is worrying, because Nio has already halted production twice this year to combat covid, and the news arrives just a week after Nio impressed shareholders by aiming for Q4 44% production growth in just one quarter. That is a lot of growth in a three-month time period, and any single obstacle could set the entire schedule back. Nio stock market news In addition to the covid situation battering Chinese share prices this week, Mercedes-Benz cut prices across the board on its Chinese stock of EVs. The lower end of these vehicles is thought to compete directly with Nio and more so now that prices have been reduced. In the case of the Mercedes-Benz EQE, the headline price was clipped by a little over 9%. This is quite poor timing as higher battery component prices in 2022 have hurt Nio's margins alongside the rest of the industry. Nio's adjusted earnings loss in the third quarter reported one week ago was nearly double what Wall Street had expected, primarily due to these higher input costs. Taking the lay of the land, two separate analysts cut their price targets on Nio stock on Thursday alone. UBS downgraded Nio from Buy to Neutral and cut its $32 price target the whole way to $13. Cutting your price target by more than half is never a good sign, but because it was about 25% above Nio's current price, shares closed up about 1.3% in the session. Barclays also clipped its price target from $19 to $18, noting the rising costs in the sector, but maintained its Overweight rating. One piece of news that may be spurring the Nio share price ahead is Thursday's Alibaba (BABA) earnings. As the most popular Chinese stock in the US market, Alibaba's quarterly earnings impressed the market by beating expectations for profitability and guiding for higher Q4 revenue. Other Chinese ADRs like NIO are benefitting from their national equity market standard-bearer. Nio stock market forecast Despite Wednesday's drawdown, Nio stock is 5.3% lower than a week ago, moving averages still have it looking bullish. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains crossed over and driving upward, and the 9-day moving average remains 26 cents ahead of the 21-day average. Both of these instances should have traders watching for further upside price action. Resistance at $12 from November 7, as well as the 14th and 15th, will be top of mind for bulls at present. Beyond here lies another resistance point at $13 and then again at $16.54. The last one has a number of price action activities surrounding it and giving it an air of greater significance. A close above $16.54 places Nio stock in rally territory. Support sits between $9 and $9.50. NIO 1-day stock

S&P 500 bulls came back, 3,910 support held, and the dollar was unable to hold on to intraday gains really. In the European morning, I doubted the bearish shift materializing later today as the Fed speakers‘ risk-off momentum did wear off already yesterday. Precious metals are indeed leading the charge among real assets, and I‘m still not writing off crude oil. S&P 500 looks likely to conquer the low 4,010s today, which would flip the daily chart distinctly bullish again. Paying off not to panic – the Fed‘s ability to tighten in the face of slowing economy, is correctly being doubted – 4.50% Fed funds rate year end is still a great tightening achievement but stocks are willing to run higher in its face. Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Fake breakdown on low volume attracting no sellers – that would be the most likely conclusion after today‘s closing bell. Credit Markets HYG posture is bound to improve further today – the downswing was bought, and white body candle awaits today while TLT more or less erases yesterday‘s decline. Gold, Silver and Miners We haven‘t seen an important precious metals top – the sector will likely hold on to and extend today‘s premarket gains. Silver is still recharging batteries, but will recapture $22 with ease. Crude Oil Oil downswing appears overdone, but unless $82.50 is recaptured and WTIC starts outperforming especially base metals, the short-term outlook is tricky. Oil stocks not joining in the slide, is though positive – so, I‘m not turning bearish.

US stocks are rallying as Wall Street continues to expect the Fed to downshift their tightening pace next month and on optimism that the risk of a railroad strike fueling inflation is low. ​ The latest round of Fed speak did not teach us anything new. ​ The Fed’s Mester noted that long-term inflation expectations are reasonably anchored. ​ The labor market is a key concern for the Fed, and Mester also pointed out that labor demand is still outpacing supply. Recent trends however are showing the labor market is showing signs of cooling. ​ ​ Some investors are growing confident that the potential railroad strike might not be as troubling for inflation as the Railway Labor Act will prevent key interruptions. ​ ​ Some traders are looking ahead to the upcoming Minutes, but they are dated (before the cool October inflation report) and will likely show many Fed members have an unclear rate path as inflation is a tricky beast to slay. Read next: Gold could be in some way prevented from rallying by unstable COVID outlook| FXMAG.COM FX/Fixed income Risk appetite is making an appearance today and that is helping send the Treasury yields and the dollar lower. ​ The 10-year Treasury yield fell 4.3 basis points to 3.784%. ​ Cooling inflation drivers, mainly an overpriced weakening of China and the railroad strike impact, are helping drive the dollar down today. The dollar’s weakness might be limited as options markets are showing too many excessive bearish bets being placed by hedge funds and money managers. Best Buy Best Buy shares are rallying after they raised their holiday outlook. ​ This was a welcomed surprise from the retailer that many feared was going to see a weaker consumer refrain from purchasing new TVs, appliances, and other gadgets. It looks like Best Buy is not expecting a disappointing holiday season and that is positive news for other retailers. US Data The Richmond Fed’s regional surveys of business activity showed manufacturing activity continued to soften in November. The composite manufacturing index remained negative and shipment and employment deteriorated slightly. ​ The economy is clearly weakening here and inflation should continue to come down as wages and employment decline. ​ Price trends data was mixed as prices paid declined and prices received rose higher, but that was somewhat expected given the return of supply chain issues. China’s reopening will be key for inflation heading lower next year. Crypto Wall Street is mostly green today and that has provided a little boost for cryptos. ​ Bitcoin is back above the $16,000 level but still remains in the danger zone as everyone waits for the next crypto domino to fall. ​ It seems crypto traders are already pricing in a bankruptcy for crypto lender Genesis. ​ Contagion for FTX will impact many but it seems a fresh catalyst is needed for sellers to take control. Bitcoin could continue to stabilize here if Wall Street rebounds, but that seems unlikely as this bear market for stocks has yet to bottom out. ​ Bitcoin has support ahead of the $15,500 level but if that does not hold, technical selling could send prices toward the $13,500 region. ​ ​ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Stocks rise on downshift hopes, Dollar lower for now, Best Buy brings holiday cheer, US data, Gold rebound faded, Crypto benefits from Wall Street rally - MarketPulseMarketPulse

MARKET WRAP: STOCKS, BONDS, COMMODITIES           On Tuesday, the S&P 500 regained the key level of 4,000 as it climbed 53 points (+1.36%) to 4003, its highest level in 2-1/2 months. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 397 points (+1.18%) to 34,098, and the Nasdaq 100 gained 171 points (+1.48%) to 11,724.While investors awaited Wednesday's release of minutes of the Federal Reserve's November meeting, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield retreated 6.7 basis points to 3.760%.Semiconductors (+3.34%), energy (+3.18%), and consumer durables & apparel (+2.26%) sectors were market leaders.Best Buy (BBY) surged 12.78%, as the consumer electronics retailer raised its full-year comparable sales guidance.Agilent Technologies (A) jumped 8.07%, after the life science company posted better-than-expected quarterly earnings and raised its full-year earnings guidance.Dell Technologies (DELL) climbed 6.77% and Urban Outfitters (URBN) advanced 8.89%, as both companies' quarterly results exceeded expectations.On the other hand, Dollar Tree (DLTR) plunged 7.79% after the discount store chain said it now expects full-year earnings at the lower end of its target range.Zoom Video Communications (ZM) fell 3.87%, and Medtronic (MDT) dropped 5.30%, as both companies gave down-beat business outlook.Regarding U.S. economic data, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index posted at -9 for November (vs +5 expected).European stocks also closed higher. The DAX 40 rose 0.29%, the CAC 40 gained 0.35%, and the FTSE 100 was up 1.03%.Oil prices were boosted by Saudi Arabia saying that OPEC+ was sticking with output cuts. U.S. WTI crude futures gained $1.10 to $81.14 a barrel.Gold price added $2 to $1,740 an ounce.           MARKET WRAP: FOREX           The U.S. dollar index softened against other major currencies. The dollar index fell back to 107.16.EUR/USD rose 60 pips to 1.0302. The Eurozone's official consumer confidence index posted at -23.9 for November (vs -26.8 expected).USD/JPY dropped 96 pips to 141.18.GBP/USD gained 66 pips to 1.1889.AUD/USD increased 41 pips to 0.6646. This morning, the S&P Global Australia manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to 51.5 in November.NZD/USD rebounded 53 pips to 0.6153. Later today, New Zealand's central bank is expected to raise its key interest rate by 75 basis points to 4.25%.USD/CHF slid 65 pips to 0.9520.USD/CAD declined 77 pips to 1.3371. Canada's retail sales declined 0.5% on month in September (as expected).Bitcoin rebounded 3% to $16,100.           MORNING TRADING           In Asian trading hours, NZD/USD traded higher to 0.6178. New Zealand's central bank increased its key interest rate by a record 75 basis points to 4.25%, and signaled further tightening going forward.EUR/USD traded higher to 1.0317, GBP/USD was stable at 1.1884, and AUD/USD was little changed at 0.6644.USD/JPY edged higher to 141.32.Gold price was flat at $1,740 an ounce.Bitcoin advanced a further 1% to $16,450.           EXPECTED TODAY           November S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers index will be announced for the Eurozone (45.7 expected), Germany (45.4 expected), France (46.8 expected), the U.K. (45.6 expected) and the U.S. (50.1 expected).In the U.S., durable goods orders are expected to grew 0.3% on month in October. The latest number of initial jobless claims is expected to rise to 228,000.The number of U.S. new home sales is expected to fall to an annualized rate of 580,000 units in October.U.S. crude-oil stockpiles are expected to decline 1.055 million barrels last week.           UK MARKET NEWS           United Utilities Group, a water and wastewater services company, reported first-half results: "Revenue was down 13 million pounds, at 919 million pounds, largely reflecting lower consumption more than offsetting the allowed regulatory revenue increase. (...) Operating profit at 259 million pounds was 74 million pounds lower than the first half of last year, (...) Reported basic earnings per share increased from (31.7) pence to 51.8 pence. (...) The Board has proposed an interim dividend of 15.17 pence per ordinary share in respect of the six months ended 30 September 2022. This is an increase of 4.6 per cent compared with the interim dividend relating to last year."Oil & Gas, basic resources and auto & parts shares fell most in London on Monday.From a relative strength vs FTSE 100 point of view, BP (+6.52% to 488p) crossed above its 50-day moving average.From a relative strength vs FTSE 100 point of view, Croda International (-1.07% to 6828p) crossed under its 50-day moving average.From a technical point of view, BAE Systems (+2.07% to 798.2p), BP (+6.52% to 488p) crossed above their 50-day moving average.           ECONOMIC CALENDAR           Time Event Forecast Importance   04:30 S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Flash (Nov) 45.6 MEDIUM     04:30 S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI Flash (Nov) 47.6 MEDIUM     08:00 Building Permits Final (Oct) 1.526M MEDIUM     08:30 Durable Goods Orders MoM (Oct) 0.3% HIGH     08:30 Initial Jobless Claims (19/Nov) 228k MEDIUM     08:30 Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM (Oct) 0.1% MEDIUM     09:45 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Nov) 50.1 MEDIUM     09:45 S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Nov) 49.3 MEDIUM     09:45 S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Nov) 49.5 MEDIUM     10:00 New Home Sales (Oct) 580k HIGH     10:00 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (Nov) 54.7 MEDIUM     10:30 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (18/Nov) 383k MEDIUM     10:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (18/Nov) -1.055M MEDIUM     13:00 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count (25/Nov)   HIGH     14:00 BoE Pill Speech   MEDIUM     14:00 FOMC Minutes   HIGH

This week's investor insight will make you think twice about the current stock and bond rally as we head into the end of the year. We get a lot of questions about if the stock market has bottomed or if it is headed lower and how they can take advantage of the next Major market move. Over the next 6 to 12 months, I expect the market to have violent price swings that will either make or break your financial future. So let me show a handful of charts and show what I expect to unfold. Let's dive in. We're told that "quitters never win." But is it always wise to stick with something when it no longer serves us — or worse, continues to harm us? Many years ago, when Texas hold'em poker was big and online gambling was allowed in Canada, I used to run a poker league and build custom poker tables for people across the United States and Canada. I love poker, and I still play it to this very day, but the game does require skill, a proper mindset, and self-discipline. Without all three of these things, poker is pure gambling. It's the same when it comes to active trading or investing if you lack the skills, mindset, and self-discipline. Retired professional poker player Annie Duke, who is also a best-selling author, and decision strategist who advises seed-stage Startups, says that learning when to quit is a critical skill, especially for investors. Annie states, "Quitting is a good thing when applied at the right time." If you've been following me for any time, then you know I follow a detailed trading strategy with position and risk management rules. As a result, you won't find me taking random trades or trading based on emotions. Instead, you'll find me patiently waiting on the sidelines for a high-probability trade signal to reinvest my capital. I trade differently. I don't diversify. I don't buy-and-hope, and I don't have any positions at certain times. What I do is reinvest in assets that are rising in value. And when a particular asset stops moving higher, I give up on the position and exit it immediately. Because I use technical analysis to follow price action, we can quickly and easily determine if an asset is rising or falling. Therefore, I can step aside and let the asset fall and look for a new opportunity that is rising, or hold the falling position and ride it lower for who knows how long… Unfortunately, most traders and investors do not understand how to read the markets, or they don't have control of their money. They are at the mercy of what the market does or the skills of whoever controls their capital. Let me share some of my market insight and help guide you On October 21st, I stated that retirement accounts should bottom and rally into the end of the year. Bonds were hitting 11-year lows. In short, anyone holding 20+ year treasury bonds had just lost more than ten years of investment growth wiped out.  Bonds, the highly touted safe, low-risk asset, fell over 47% from the 2020 high. It caused similar losses to the average investor portfolio comparable to the 2008 financial crisis. It was the worst selloff ever for treasury bonds that I can see on my charting platform. The real kicker is that the selloff in both stocks and bonds could have been avoided with just a little education and management. Subscribers and I happened to ride the COVID bond rally higher by 19%, exited the position, and moved to cash the day bond prices topped. It was partly luck to exit at the peak, but we would have exited the following trading session if we didn’t lock in profits because we managed our positions and risk. As the price reversed direction, we jumped shipped to one of my favorite positions, which almost no one thinks about or uses – CASH. 2022 has been a painful year for investors, and people are telling me they are scared to look at their investment statements. It now looks like bonds and stocks have started a seasonal rally that could help lift your portfolio as we head into the end of the year, but once it ends, look out! Bonds and Stock Seasonality Price Movement Daily Chart of 60/40 Portfolio You should have seen your account rally 6% or more since Oct 21st, and I think it will continue higher once the market digests the recent move up. While this may excite you, be aware that after this rally, we could see another 20-47% decline in stocks and bonds in 2023. This year-end bounce is nothing more than an opportunity to get out of the antiquated Buy-and-Hope strategy that does not work during a volatile and weakening economic environment. The next few charts, which are big heavyweight stocks that drive the market higher and pull it lower, should help you see what I see.  AAPL Weekly Chart and Potential Breakdown Apple is a heavyweight stock. When it moves, it moves the stock market. Currently, AAPL shares are in what I call a STAGE 3 Distribution phase, and if support is broken, then look out below! TSLA Weekly Chart and Potential Breakdown Tesla shares are another heavyweight, and its weekly chart paints a bleak future for holders. META (Facebook) Weekly Chart Breakdown Leads The Way Down Facebook, or what is now called META, is a heavyweight stock that has already broken down from its STAGE 3 Distribution phase. As you can see, when these mega stocks break down and unwind, individual investors who have their money managed by so-called professionals who don’t know how to manage risk suffer the most. The drop in META shares has held the tech, social, and even the S&P 500, and Nasdaq from rallying freely to the upside in the past month. When/if AAPL, TSLA, and other heavyweights break down, expect panic on Wall Street. My general rule of thumb is if someone tells you to diversify into a bunch of different assets, stocks, commodities, bonds, crypto, etc… then they don’t know what they are doing. They are a buy-and-hold believer and willing to let their own money or that of their clients experience the severe price swings the market dishes out. – Billionaire investor warren Buffet says, “Diversification makes very little sense for those who know what they are doing.” – Multimillionaire investor Jim Rogers said, “Diversification is something that stockbrokers came up with to protect themselves, so they wouldn’t get sued for making bad investment choices for clients, and that you can go broke diversifying.” The Four Stages Of Asset Prices If you think the 2022 pullback has been distressing, you better buckle up because the bear market has not even technically started yet, from my standard. Instead, in early 2023 we should enter a STAGE 4 Decline. This is when people's financial future and retirement lifestyles are created or broken, depending on how it's managed. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying the market will fall in 2023. I’m letting you know it's very possible, and you best have a plan in place. On the other hand, if the markets have some miraculous recovery and start a new bull market, well, you better have a plan for that also. Either way, you need a plan, and if you are a technical trader who follows price and manages positions, it doesn't matter what the market does; we are set either way. S&P 500 Bear Market Expectations 2023 The S&P 500 chart shows the extreme low that we could possibly reach if the economy and stock market fully unwind. Bonds would sell off as well until the Fed decides to step in and starts lowering the rates to try and save investors, but there will be a delay, and bonds will likely fall sharply before we see that take effect. CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:In short, without going off too much on a rant, you can read the three lies we are told by financial professionals that really IRK me. Because of these lies, individual investors must work harder, work longer and experience painful financial outcomes. What you may not know is that what you went through in 2008, the 2020 crash, and this year's correction could have been completely avoided. If you followed a NO BS investing method that tracks price using technical analysis, is simple to follow, and is uber-conservative, then your account would be sitting at a new all-time high watermark as of this week. The financial industry tells us to do all the wrong things, and almost everyone falls for the BS; it's so frustrating to watch! LIE #1: Diversify, Diversify, Diversify LIE #2: Bonds Are A Safe Investment And Should Represent A Large Portion Of An Investors Portfolio LIE #3: Speak With An investment Broker Or Advisor Before Placing Any Trade To Be Sure It Is Suitable For Your Personal Circumstances.  It's total baloney because almost everyone gets the same generic advice, buy-and-hold stocks and bonds, don't give up on it, ride out the rollercoaster, and you will be fine, trust me… Who came up with that strategy? Sure, my 10-year-old son could buy some stocks and bonds once, let it ride for 20-30 years, and be ok. He has time and not that much money, but the big question is at what age does the stock and bond, buy-and-hope strategy become a harmful and risky investment strategy? 50-ish years of age is my thinking. Knowing bear markets can take 3-12 years to recover from, someone who is 50+, planning to retire soon, or is already retired, doesn't have 10+ years to keep working and saving to avoid withdrawing funds from their retirement account. Also, the fact that they have the most wealth ever in their lifetime, they should be concerned about holding through future bear markets.  Don't be fooled. Just because everyone else has been brainwashed to buy-and-hold, aka buy-and-hope, and suffers stock market selloffs does not mean you should…  It's like the average investor has Stockholm syndrome. They have all been beaten up by the markets over and over again. They think that's how it should be. And in some cases are paying someone to take their money, plop it into the market, and do nothing with it for 10 - 40 years. They pay a % of their life savings each year to someone who has no risk and does not need to do too much of anything, while the investor suffers massive multi-year drawdowns, experiences high levels of stress, and sometimes big losses. The typical investing experience most people endure is NOT how it should be. There is a better way, and I can show you. My passion is trading and investing, having been at it for over 25 years. My goal is to help as many investors as possible to preserve their capital during difficult times and also be able to grow their wealth by trading only the most liquid ETFs. My investing strategy signals allow individuals to only hold assets that are rising in value.

Looking at the company's recent Q3 results and its share valuation, it's hard not to get the impression that investors could choose it as a cure for worsening times. At a time when the main S&P 500 index (US500) has fallen by more than 16% since its January highs, the fast food giant's valuation has risen by 5%. We decided to see if the average American would switch to a BigMac in times of crisis? The company's financial position Overall year-to-date revenues, despite experiencing a 5% year-on-year decline in Q3, are up 9% year-on-year. According to CEO Chris Kempczinski: "As the macroeconomic landscape continues to evolve and uncertainties persist, we are operating from a position of competitive strength. I also want to thank our franchisees, who have done a tremendous job navigating this environment, while providing great value to our customers."  Source: Conotoxia MT5, McDonalds, Weekly Revenue volumes may have been positively impacted by price increases across the sector. The company seems to have done quite well in passing on costs to customers, as we saw in, for example, the price of a cheeseburger in California, which increased by 50%, from US$0.99 to US$1.48. This was the first price increase for this sandwich in 14 years.  Earnings per share fell by 6.29% year-on-year, which the company explained by rising costs in the Eurozone caused mainly by energy prices. However, we learned from the report that: "comparable sales in the US increased by more than 6% during Q3, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of comparable sales growth in the segment". Currently, the company's price-to-earnings P/E ratio is 34, which may indicate signs of overvaluation. However, if analysts' expectations for future earnings are taken into account, the P/E ratio is 26.2, and this could give potential for further share price increases. The company has also announced another dividend increase. Will Americans eat at McDonald's in times of crisis? According to an analysis by NUMBEO, a company that measures the cost of living in various places around the world, the price of lunch in low-cost restaurants fluctuates between US$10-30 (average US$16). The same spread for an average McMeal set at McDonald's, depending on the state, ranges from US$7 to US$12 (average US$8.5), indicating a meal at the popular fast food outlet is twice as cheap. The question may immediately arise, will Americans decide to cook at home? However, this seems unlikely due to the fact that, according to Statista, as many as 82% of the country's citizens live in cities, where eating out is much more popular. In addition, preparing a meal at home does not seem to be cheap enough to compete with eating at fast food outlets. Therefore, we could surmise that even if the income of the average American worsens, it would be difficult to give up eating out cheaply. Alternatively, the portions ordered may be smaller and thus cheaper, but this could be to everyone's advantage. After all, according to the 2017-2020 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 41.9% of adults nationally (USA) are struggling with obesity. Grzegorz Dróżdż, Junior Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75,21% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Read the article on Conotoxia.com

Sunday marked the start of the World Cup in Qatar. It seems that it could not have taken place without controversy over the preparations for the event. After yesterday's Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, today we may see increased shopping traffic in celebration of Black Friday. A weakening dollar and falling bond yields may have driven the broad market this week.  Macroeconomic data On Wednesday, we learnt about the PMI reading on managerial sentiment in German industry. The reading of 46.7 points surpassed the expected 45 points and came as a positive surprise over the previous reading of 45.1 points. We could also see values for the same indicator from the UK, with a reading of 46.2 points (45.7 had been expected), against the previous reading of 46.2. From this we could see a warming of the market climate, which appears to have caused a 1% rise on the main German DAX index (DE40) since the start of the week.  Source: Conotoxia MT5, DE40, Weekly On the same day, we learned about the number of building permits issued in the United States. Here, the data turned out to be more modest than expected, amounting to 1.512 million (1.526 million was expected). There was also news from the US economy on crude oil inventories, which fell by 3.69 million barrels (a drop of 1 million barrels was expected).  On Thursday, Americans celebrated the Thanksgiving holiday. In Europe, on the other hand, data from the Ifo index measuring expectations for the next six months among German entrepreneurs may have come as a positive surprise. The index came in at 86.3 points, while 85 points were expected, which, like the PMI index, may have comforted markets in their expectations for the future. The stock market Analysts may have been positively surprised by Q3 earnings this week. Among others, we saw better-than-expected earnings per share from technology, software and laboratory equipment maker Agilent Technologies (Agilient), whose EPS came in at 1.53 (expected 1.38). Zoom Video (Zoom), a popular company during the pandemic, also surprised positively, with EPS of 1.07 (expected 0.83).  On Tuesday, US semiconductor company Analog Devices (AnalogDev) showed EPS of 2.73 (2.58 expected), and the maker of software for industries including architecture, engineering and construction showed earnings per share in line with EPS guidance of 1.7.  Of the 11 sectors of the US economy, consumer goods sales grew strongest. The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) index has gained more than 3% since the start of the week, which may have been influenced by Friday's Black Friday. Source: Conotoxia MT5, XLP, Weekly Currency and cryptocurrency market For another week in a row, we could see a weakening of the US dollar. The valuation of the EUR/USD pair has risen by 0.7% since the beginning of the week and currently stands at 1.04. The weakening of this largest reserve currency was also evident on the GBP/USD pair, which rose by 2% to around 1.21. The other currencies do not seem to show increased volatility. Source: Conotoxia MT5, EURUSD, Weekly There could still be a gloomy mood in the cryptocurrency market. Not even the reports that the largest exchange Binance has set up and contributed USD 1 billion to a fund to support crypto projects are helping. The price of bitcoin is hovering around US$16500 and ethereum around US$1190. Source: Conotoxia MT5, BTCUSD, Daily What could we expect next week? Next week's key macroeconomic data will start with Tuesday's German CPI inflation reading. On the same day, we will learn the previously discussed Chinese manufacturing PMI. On Wednesday, the Eurozone CPI inflation readings appear to be particularly important. On this day, we will also learn the quarterly change in GDP for the United States. On Thursday, we will learn the PMI values for Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States. At the end of the week, we will find out the unemployment rate in the USA. Tuesday will see Q3 financial results from business software developer Intuit (Intuit). Wednesday will bring a report from cloud software company Salesforce (Salesforce). We will end the week with a report from semiconductor company Marvell (MarvelTech). Grzegorz Dróżdż, Junior Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75,21% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Read the article on Conotoxia.com

USDJPY remains under pressure The Japanese yen fell after an uptick in October’s jobless rate. The rebound has met stiff selling pressure in the former demand zone around 142.40. A break below the recent low of 138.00 suggests that the path of least resistance remains down. As more buyers switch sides, increased volatility may drive the pair even lower. 135.90 is the next level to see if buyers would make their way back. Otherwise, the greenback could drift towards 132.00. The psychological level of 140.00 is the first hurdle in case of a bounce. Read next: Meta fined by Irish regulators amidst privacy concerns| FXMAG.COM AUDUSD seeks support The Australian dollar retreats after a lacklustre retail sales reading in October. The pair is looking to hold onto its gains above 0.6700 following a rally earlier this month. A bounce off 0.6580 next to the 20-day moving average indicates interest in safeguarding the aussie’s recovery. 0.6720 is a fresh resistance and a close above 0.6800 would open the door for an extension to September’s peak of 0.6910. On the downside, a dip below said support would put the bulls on the defensive with 0.6400 as a second line of defence. US 30 shows overextension The Dow Jones 30 slips as protests in China against Covid curbs raise concerns about growth. While a rally above August’s high of 34200 is an encouraging sign, the bulls would need to secure their foothold before pushing towards 34700. A bearish RSI divergence indicates a deceleration in the upward momentum and the index could use some breathing room. A slide below 34000 has led some buyers to take profit and 33650 is the next level to gauge their interest. Only a bounce above 34300 would resume the uptrend.

The internal structure of AMZN hints at the development of a corrective trend. It is assumed that a zigzag is formed, which consists of sub-waves a-b-c of the cycle degree. Perhaps at the end of last year, the market completed the formation of the first major wave a, it is a bullish 5-wave impulse. After the end of the impulse growth, the price began to decline, which may indicate the beginning of the construction of a bearish correction b. It may take the form of a zigzag â’¶-â’·-â’¸ of the primary degree. Most likely, in the near future we will see a continuation of the depreciation of stocks in the final intermediate wave (5) of the leading diagonal â’¶ to 77.07. At that level, wave (5) will be at 100% of previous impulse (3). After the end of the wave â’¶, we expect the growth of stocks in the primary correction â’·. Let's consider the second option, when the market has completed the formation of the primary wave â’¶, where, as in the first option, it has the form of a leading diagonal (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5). In this case, in the last section of the chart, we see a price increase within the sideways correction â’·. It is assumed that the correction wave â’· will take the form of an intermediate double three (W)-(X)-(Y), where the actionary wave (W) is also a double zigzag W-X-Y of a lesser degree. Perhaps the second intervening wave (X) has also come to an end, so an upward movement in the final wave (Y) to a maximum of 146.85 is expected in the near future.

Equity markets are off to a positive start on Wednesday as we await a slew of big economic releases and a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. It’s already been a very headline-driven week, particularly where oil is concerned, while Covid restrictions and protests in China have very much set the tone in Asia, and to a lesser extent elsewhere. The headwinds facing China are intensifying and the protests of recent days could make it even more challenging to navigate. That said, what we’ve heard so far has been promising and potentially indicative of a plan that was already in the works. But we shouldn’t kid ourselves. In the event that China commits 100% to its vaccine drive, especially among the elderly and vulnerable, the move away from zero Covid will take time as the virus spreads rapidly throughout the country necessitating swift action to control the spread. Even the best-case scenario is one of significant turbulence for the world’s second-largest economy next year. Chinese PMIs highlight the challenges ahead The PMIs highlight just how difficult the situation is in China, with the zero-Covid stance combined with the property market crackdown severely impacting domestic sentiment, while a slowing global economy weighs on external demand. With both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs falling deeper into contraction territory than anticipated, the country really has a mountain to climb in order to achieve decent, consistent growth once more. Some rare good news on inflation The euro is a little higher on the day against the dollar after CPI data for the currency bloc slowed to 10%, far below market expectations of around 10.4%. While still extraordinarily high, it does offer hope that inflation may have peaked and the deceleration could be faster than anticipated, in much the same way it was on the way up. The single currency was choppy in the aftermath of the release, while markets now view the possibility of a 50 or 75 basis points hike in December as a coin flip after previously heavily favouring the latter. That could be a positive for the euro if it means less of an economic slump, with the bloc already likely heading for recession. Rising for now Bitcoin is making steady gains in the session, up more than 2% and eyeing a second positive session. It did run into resistance around $1,700 again, the upper end of its range over the last couple of weeks. While we could see a bigger correction to the upside, especially if we’re treated to some dovish commentary from Powell, I’m not convinced it would be anything more than that. The industry has been shaken by the FTX collapse and as a result, bitcoin could remain vulnerable to further plunges in the price. For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Cautiously optimistic - MarketPulseMarketPulse

Mullen stock lost 4.6% on Wednesday. TSLA shares gained 7.7% at the same time. The NASDAQ also rallied 4.4% on the strength of Powell's Fed pivot. MULN stock has 43% short interest at the moment. Mullen Automotive (MULN) stock finds itself falling behind once again. On Wednesday, electric vehicle leader Tesla (TSLA) exploded 7.7% on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's announcement that the central bank would be looking at smaller interest rate hikes going forward. This appeared to be the "pivot" the entire market had been waiting for, and stocks shot up relentlessly. The NASDAQ, on which MULN stock trades, closed up 4.4% on the session. MULN stock was dead in the water however. Shares of the upstart EV maker contrasted with Wednesday's market sharply, closing down 4.6% at $0.1921. Mullen Automotive stock news: Short volume growing heavy for MULN Mullen Automotive stock received little interest from traders on Wednesday as the rest of the market stole all the focus. Taking a look at the S&P 500 heat map below makes it clear that even some of the biggest names in the market took flight. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) both closed more than 6% ahead, and Nvidia (NVDA) even advanced 8.2%. With that much bullish volatility, there was no need to pay attention to a long-term penny stock play like Mullen. Only a few oil & gas companies closed lower on the day. S&P 500 Heat Map for Nov. 30, 2022 A big reason that MULN stock continued to descend was that shares recently dropped below the $0.21 support level that held up back during its recent swing low on October 18 and 19. This time Mullen Automotive stock has ignored the support level and continued moving lower one penny at a time. Of course, it must worry existing shareholders that short interest reached 43% on Wednesday. That is nearly twice as bad as other EV startups. Hyzon Motors (HYZN) and Arcimoto (FUV), for instance, have short interest of 22% and 27%. Another drag on the MULN share price is that Tesla keeps making all the headlines. Tesla's Texas Gigafactory has been producing 1,000 Model Ys per week since June, but unsubstantiated rumors are leaking that the EV leader will ramp up to 5,000 per week by 2023. Insiders have told the blogs that management is aiming for 75,000 Model Ys to be produced at the Texas plant in the first quarter of 2023. This means 25,000 a month and nearly 5,000 per week. Additionally, Tesla will deliver its first Tesla Semi, a fully battery electric semi tractor trailer, to Pepsi (PEP) at a Thursday event at its Nevada factory. The Tesla Semi is expected to greatly expand Tesla's profits in the coming years and is said to have a range between 300 and 500 miles. Also Tesla says it uses less than 2kWh to travel one mile, a rather efficient figure. This contrasts sharply with Mullen, who does not plan to deliver its Mullen Five crossover vehicle until the second quarter of 2024. With the recent addition of assets from Electric Last Mile Solutions (ELMS), Mullen is a long way away from completely retooling its new Indiana plant to prepare for production. Mullen finally closed its $105 million deal to buy the bankrupt ELMS assets on Thursday. The Indiana plant will be used to produce both the Mullen FIVE model and the Bollinger B1 and B2 models. “I have been working on this plan for many years, putting in place the strategic and critical enablers to be a dominant competitor in the EV market,” Mullen CEO David Michery said. “Successfully completing this asset acquisition moves Mullen into an all-new position with IP, plants and product platforms that no other competitor can offer to both retail and commercial customers. We have everything we need to launch the Mullen and Bollinger EVs product lineup.” Mullen Automotive stock forecast As previously stated, MULN stock crashed through the $0.21 support level on November 23 and has not looked back. It would seem that this is now the target for bulls. A move above would signal that a rally is likely starting up. Above that pivot sits nearby points of resistance at $0.2244 from the 9-day moving average and at $0.27 from the 21-day moving average. There is no historical support for MULN stock at the moment, which will be the main worry for bulls. It would be best to wait for a daily close above $0.21 before getting back in. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is also slotted in a bearish pattern. MULN 1-day stock chart

US stocks were unable to hold onto earlier gains as Wall Street digested a swathe of economic data that showed inflation is easing and the labor market is cooling. ​ It’s been a nice rally but no one wants to be aggressively bullish heading into the NFP report. Yesterday’s Fed Chair Powell speech was good news for risky assets as he focused on inflation coming down and that the economy is doing well. ​ The risks of overtightening have many expecting the Fed to end its tightening cycle early next year and that will continue if the labor market softens quickly. ​ Earlier, investors were looking for any signs to buy stocks after reports that China was getting ready to release new Covid guidelines. China is far from willing to completely relax its guidelines, but these next steps could help end protests. ​ ​ ​ ​ US data The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge grew 5% from a year ago, confirming the recent trend of falling pricing data points. ​ The closely watched ISM report fell into contraction territory, reaching the lowest levels since the pandemic recovery began. The ISM’s prices paid also dropped to the lowest levels since May 2020. ​ October personal income and spending data were rather strong but no one expects that to continue going forward. ​ The initial jobless claims headline reading showed the labor market is still strong. ​ First-time claims fell by 16,000 to 225,000, which was lower than expected and well below the highs seen in the summer. ​ Continuing claims was interesting as it jumped to 1.61 million, which is getting closer to the pre-pandemic average of 1.7 million. ​ The trends are clear for inflation, but the big question mark is if the labor market is going to have a broader slowdown. ​ Tomorrow’s NFP report will be important as it could move forward bets that inflation will continue to decline. ​ FX The BOJ’s Tamura made quite a first impression to fx traders. ​ Tamura helped send the yen lower after he noted, “It would be appropriate to conduct a review at the right time, including the monetary policy framework and inflation target.” ​ Currency traders are used to Japan always having ultra-loose policy but that seems like it will have to change in the new year. ​ Cryptos Cryptos are struggling today as the earlier rally faded ahead of NFPs and as concerns brew that Tether loans could be the next big risk for the cryptoverse. ​ Stablecoins are an important part of the crypto world and if one of the major ones break, that will send bitcoin and ethereum to new lows. ​ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Stocks volatile ahead of NFP, US Data, BOJ Tamura’s first impression, Tether loan concerns - MarketPulseMarketPulse

Emini S&P December futures hit the 8 month trend line at 4090/95, the downward sloping 11 month trend line & upward sloping 2 month trend line at 4105/10. A high for the day here although not much of a sell off yet despite overbought conditions. It is make or break day for stock markets with the release of the US non farm payroll number. Nasdaq December consolidates after Wednesday's strong gains but unable to make a break above the November high. Emini Dow Jones futures turns lower but no important sell signal yet despite severely overbought conditions. Remember when support is broken it usually acts as resistance & vice-versa. Update daily by 06:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Emini S&P December has rejected strong resistance at 4090/95 to 4105/10. Only a weekly close above here will convince me to turn bullish. We then target 4170/90. Shorts at 4090/4110 can target 4060/50, perhaps as far as first support at 4020/10. A break below 4000 can target 3970/50, perhaps as far as strong support at 3930/10. Nasdaq December bulls really need a clean break above the November high at 12118 for a buy signal targeting 12250 & 12400. If we turn lower on the US non farm payroll number look for 12000/11900 then 11750/700. Further losses can target 11550/500. Emini Dow Jones should meet support at 33900/800. A break below 33600 signals further losses towards support at 33300/200. Above 34700 can target 35000/35100.

Strong job creation and a big increase in wages underscore the Federal Reserve's argument that a lot more work needs to be done to get inflation under control. It has certainly jolted the market. But with recessionary fears lingering, market participants will remain sceptical over how long the strong performance can last US job growth was strong and wages rose in November 263,000 Number of US jobs added in November   Surging employment and wages show the economy remains strong The US economy added 263,000 jobs in November, well ahead of the 200,000 consensus estimate, even when accounting for a 23,000 downward revision to the past couple of months of data. Private payrolls rose 221,000, led by 88,000 jobs in leisure and hospitality and 82,000 in education and health. Construction was up 20,000 and manufacturing gained 14,000. However, there was weakness in trade & transport (-49,000) and retail trade (-30,000). There was more positive news for workers in the form of big wage gains of 0.6% month-on-month, double what was expected, which leaves the annual rate of wage growth at 5.1%. The unemployment rate remained at 3.7% despite the household survey showing an apparent drop of 138,000 people saying they were in work – the second consecutive decline. The unemployment rate held steady because the participation rate fell yet again as workers remain reluctant to return to the workforce. Read next: FX: Today’s US Payrolls With A Strong Bearish Rhetoric On The USD| FXMAG.COM Given the Fed’s repeated warnings that rates are likely to stay higher for longer to ensure inflation is defeated, officials will be hoping that today’s numbers will be the jolt needed to get market participants to finally believe the Fed’s intent. Payrolls growth is slowing, but not fast enough for the Fed (Jobs added per month '000s) Source: Macrobond, ING Jobs market remains far too hot for the Fed In his speech earlier this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell discussed the prospect of declines in inflation relating to core goods and housing. His focus though was on another area, core services other than housing, where the situation is more troubling. This grouping accounts for more than half of the core PCE index, the Fed’s favoured measure of inflation. The tightness of the jobs market and the implication for wage pressures, which make up the largest cost in delivering these services, is therefore key to the outlook for interest rates. In the speech, he argued that “job growth remains far in excess of the pace needed to accommodate population growth over time—about 100,000 per month by many estimates.” Consequently, wage growth “shows only tentative signs of returning to balance”. Today’s 263,000 jobs number confirms we remain a long way off from demand balancing with supply, which would ease those labour market related inflation pressures. Adding to the Fed’s problems, monetary conditions have loosened in recent weeks as the dollar and longer-dated Treasury yields have fallen and credit spreads have narrowed. This is undoing the tightening effects of the Fed’s recent rate rises. Furthermore, the latest consumer spending numbers together with the anecdotal evidence of the Black Friday weekend sales show that the economy has not yet met the Fed’s requirements of slowing to a rate “well below its longer-run trend”. As such, the Fed has more work to do and we look for further 50bp rate hikes in December and in February, with the potential for tightening needing to go on for longer. Read this article on THINK TagsWages US Payrolls Jobs Federal Reserve Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

AMC Entertainment stock closed up 13% on Thursday. AMC stock trading was halted on Thursday due to unusual volatility. 46 million AMC shares had traded by shortly after noon. AMC stock is again advancing in Friday's premarket. AMC Entertainment (AMC) stock is up 3.4% in Friday's premarket just a day after authorities halted trading due to unusual volatility. Thursday saw options volume three times higher than the 20-day average, and AMC stock leapt as much as 27% before trading was halted shortly before 12:30pm. Trading then recommenced with AMC's share price closing up 13% at $8.17, its highest closing price since September 21. AMC Entertainment stock news: Call options bring all the boys to the yard AMC Entertainment stock got going early on Thursday and reached as high as a 27% gain before being halted. Authorities said about 46 million shares changed hands by that time compared to an average of 25 million. The AMC price action was led by option market activity. Retail traders and especially the much-maligned AMC Apes were furious with the trading halt. Read next: Porsche NFT Collection Will Hit The Market In January 2023 | FXMAG.COM Bloomberg reported that by 3pm, 550,000 call contracts representing 55 million shares had traded, while the 20-day average was 163,000. Activity was especially noted in the $8, $8.50 and $9 strike prices that are expiring this Friday. On Thursday these strikes saw more than 80,000, 63,000 and 71,000 call contracts trade by the close. The $10 strike also saw nearly 36,000 contracts trade as well. The $8 strike closed the session at $0.36 a share, and the $8.50 closed at $0.17 a share. BNK Invest noted heightened activity last Tuesday as well, writing, "Looking at options trading activity among components of the Russell 3000 index, there is noteworthy activity today in AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (Symbol: AMC), where a total volume of 136,950 contracts has been traded thus far today, a contract volume which is representative of approximately 13.7 million underlying shares (given that every 1 contract represents 100 underlying shares). That number works out to 51.6% of AMC's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 26.5 million shares." AMC Apes on Twitter have been badgering CEO Adam Aron about the APE equity unit price as it recently fell below $1. It closed Thursday up 1.1% at $0.9822, and is now trading up to $1.02 in Friday's premarket. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever dominated the US box office once again last weekend, but observers believe its numbers are falling too rapidly. Still the superhero film has grossed about $683 million worldwide and is already the seventh highest grossing movie of the year with more room to run. AMC stock forecast The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator in regard to AMC stock's daily chart shows a moderate bullish pattern. Thursday's burst blew well above the November 14 and 15 pinnacle, and a cursory look at this chart makes one think there is more energy left for upside. Of course, traders will be closing out their call options in the afternoon, but other might be already buying up those for next week. $10.39 looms large for bulls since this is where they got stopped out in mid-September. Before AMC can reach that point, however, the R1 pivot sits at $8.70 and the R2 is at $10.18. The 21-day moving average at $6.87 is the current pivot, and $5.17 is the long-term support level from November 7 and 9. AMC 1-day chart

US stocks fell on Friday, after the latest data showed that Americans got more jobs in November, and more importantly they got a better pay. Wages grew by 0.6% over the month, which was the biggest monthly gain, and the double of what was penciled on by analysts.   Of course, the news was great for the American workers, but much less so for the Federal Reserve (Fed), who is dreaming of a softer US labour market, and weak wages so that people could just STOP spending in hope that inflation would fall.   Read next: If ECB policymakers should make a decision between fighting inflation and avoiding recession, they will likely choose fighting inflation says Ipek Ozkardeskaya| FXMAG.COM But nope, it's just another month of strong US jobs data which certainly got Mr Powell to scratch his head.  Investors just... don't want to price Fed rate at 5%!  More, and better paid jobs fueled US inflation expectations, boosted the Fed hawks, and brought forward the idea that the Fed could be attracted by another, a fifth 75bp hike in the December meeting,   US equities fell and the dollar gained.  But then, the S&P500, which gapped lower at the open closed the session almost flat, and the US dollar index gave back all post-jobs gains to close the week where it was before data, and even came lower in Asia this morning.   Why?   Probably because investors priced in the fact that the Fed won't increase its rates by 75bp this month. It will probably increase them by more in the first half of next year. But that information doesn't go through for some reason, and the pricing for the Fed's terminal rate is still below 5%.   So be careful, even though the rally in equities looks like it could continue, and the weakness in the US dollar is what could mark the last weeks of a chaotic trading year, we will certainly see these forces reverse in the first weeks of January, if not before.  S&P500 at crossroads  The S&P500 closed what was normally supposed to be a week of losses with gains. The index added more than 1% last week, and closed the week right at the top of the year-to-date descending channel, and above its 200-DMA.   The RSI index doesn't point at overbought conditions, the MACD index is slightly positive, and the volatility index slipped below 19, low volatility being a sign of improving risk appetite, and potentially sustainable gains.   Is there a possibility for this rally to extend despite all the red flags? Yes! There is, though, with the risk of Jerome Powell sounding like at the Jackson Hole speech back in summer – which had destroyed the market mood in a couple of minutes.   The next big data is due next week, on Tuesday, a day before the FOMC decision. Until then, investors could give themselves the luxury to dream about a dovish future.   The freefalling dollar  Until then, we could see the US dollar lose more field against most majors, if we are lucky enough. The EURUSD for example gained more than 10% since the end of September, as Cable gained nearly 20% since the Liz Truss dip.   As such, the US dollar rebound seems a bit aggressive, especially knowing that the market has been refusing to price in a terminal rate for the Fed above 5%.  So, there is a risk that we don't see a one-sided dollar selloff when the Fed remains sufficiently hawkish – and when the market pricing will have to match the Fed talk at some point.   But the latest dollar selloff is a hint that the US dollar has certainly peaked this year, and next year will be, despite some Fed hawkishness, and some rebounds, a year of softening for the greenback and recovery for other currencies.   OPEC doesn't cut output  The weekend was rather eventless, as OPEC decided to maintain its daily output restriction unchanged at 2mio barrels per day at Sunday's meeting, which could be seen as a negative development for the bulls.   But there are two price-supportive developments that could limit losses below the $80pb.   First, Europeans finally agreed on the Russian oil price cap at $60pb, that Russia refused – hinting that the Russians could reduce their oil output in the coming months, which would than reduce the global supply and push prices higher.   Second, China is easing Covid measures. The Chinese reopening could counter the global recession odds and support oil prices.  In US crude, strong resistance is seen at $85pb, 50-DMA. 

Tesla is cutting production by 20% at its Shanghai factory. The move will mostly involve Model Y production. The production cut is due to a demand shortfall. TSLA stock drops 4.7% on Shanghai news.   Tesla (TSLA) stock gave up 4.7% in Monday's premarket after Bloomberg reported that its Shanghai factory would trim record production by 20% due to sluggish Chinese demand. Shares of the leading electric vehicle maker dropped to $185.75 on the news. At the same time most of the US futures market is down in the premarket. Futures for all three major indices, the Dow, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, are off close to 0.5%. Tesla stock news: Model Y production clipped The news out of Shanghai caught investors off guard, because until now Tesla had been undergoing a global ramp up in production. These included plants in Berlin and Austin, Texas as well. The Shanghai production cut is said to be caused by a reduction in that market's demand. Due to frequent covid-related shutdowns across China this year, the economy there appears to have pulled back quite a bit. Demand has shrunk even while Tesla has been ramping up production there to an all-time high. In November Tesla reported deliveries just under 100,300 vehicles. Cutting back to 80,000 units a month is still quite a substantial figure, and Bloomberg sources said it would be easy to ramp back up once demand returns. Reports say the cut will primarily focus on Model Ys. Earlier news accounts said that Tesla had finally exceeded Chinese demand in November for both Model Ys and Model 3s. Waiting times between customer order and final delivery for both models are said to be way down compared with earlier in the year. Source: CnEVPost Tesla can of course export vehicles produced at the Shanghai plant, and it does do this. In fact, that is normally the course of action. Tesla Shanghai spends the start of each quarter producing vehicles for export and then spend the latter half producing for the domestic market. In October, for instance, 54,504 vehicles were exported, and just 17,200 vehicles were delivered there in China. Tesla should produce more than 1 million vehicles at the Shanghai factory in 2023. In other news the European Union's Trade & Technology Council has vocally implied that it may challenge parts of the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) at the World Trade Organization. Members of the EU regard certain features of the IRA as protectionist since only US-based companies can receive the many tax breaks for going green that the legislation allows. A primary target of EU member countries are the EV tax credits. In order for a consumer to be eligible for a $7,500 tax credit on a new EV, the vehicle must be assembled in North America. "There is a risk that the Inflation Reduction Act could lead to unfair competition, could close markets and fragment critical supply chains," said President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen. "We must take action to rebalance the playing field... to improve our state aid frameworks. In other words: We need to do our homework in Europe and at the same time work with the US to mitigate competitive disadvantages." Tesla stock forecast With the latest setback, TSLA stock is once again experiencing resistance at the $200 level. Last Thursday Tesla stock nearly cleared $199 before selling off and closing lower. In order to make a run at late October and early November's swing high at $234, bulls first need to reconquer the $200 level, which is suddenly seeming to be a difficult task. Nearby support at $180 and $167.50 should both offer some confidence in the mean time. The 9-day moving average also found a base of support recently at the $180 level before moving higher. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) still shows that a rally is on, so it is quite possible that an unknown catalyst (Tesla Semi?) arrives in the headlines later this week and works to rally the troops for another try at $200. TSLA 1-day stock chart

Emini S&P December futures hit the 8 month trend line at 4090/95, the downward sloping 11 month trend line & upward sloping 2 month trend line at 4105/10, with a high for the day week here. Nasdaq December lower on the US non farm payroll number to my target of 11750/700 with a low for the day exactly here. Read next: Vodafone Shares Fell By 45%, Apple May Be Moving Production Outside Of China | FXMAG.COM Emini Dow Jones futures turns lower but no important sell signal yet despite severely overbought conditions. **Friday's dragonfly doji in all 3 markets warns of a potential price decline. A move lower on Monday's candle provides confirmation.** Today's Analysis. Emini S&P December has rejected strong resistance at 4090/95 to 4105/10 with a weekly close below here. Obviously a break above this week will convince me to turn bullish. We then target 4170/90. Shorts at 4090/4110 can retarget 4060/50 & first support at 4020/10. A low for the day exactly here on Friday with longs offered up to 65 points profit. A break below 4000 however is a sell signal targeting 3970/50 & strong support at 3930/10. Read next: The reduction of fears related to a possible frosty winter may support the euro exchange rate | FXMAG.COM Nasdaq December holding below 12000 re-targets 11750/700. Further losses can target 11550/500 & even 11250. Bulls really need a clean break above the November high at 12118 for a buy signal targeting 12250 & 12400. Emini Dow Jones should meet support at 33900/800 & in fact we had a low for the day just 35 ticks above here on Friday. A break below 33600 today signals further losses towards support at 33300/200. Above 34700 can target 35000/35100.

Stocks fell and the US dollar strengthened on Monday.   One of the reasons that could have triggered the move was a stronger-than-expected ISM services read in the US, which came in above expectations, and hinted that the economic activity, at least in the US services sector continues growing, and growing un-ideally faster-than-expected despite the Federal Reserve's (Fed) efforts to cool it down.   So, the economic data may have fueled the Fed hawks yesterday, although I just want to note that another data, which is PMI services remained comfortably in the contraction zone at around 46.   In the short run, the S&P500 may have seen a top near 4100 But the fact that the S&P500 was flirting with critical yearly resistance may have played a bigger role in yesterday's selloff.   The S&P500 shortly traded above the year-to-date bearish channel top last week without a solid reason to do so. The pricing in the markets barely reflects the scenario that the US rates will go above the 5% mark. Therefore, a downside correction was necessary to reflect the reality of the Fed game. Read next: Vodafone Shares Fell By 45%, Apple May Be Moving Production Outside Of China | FXMAG.COM Some people say that it's because the market sees the Fed's bluff. But at the end of the day, if Fed's bluff of tighter policy doesn't do the job, then the Fed will have to do the job itself.   In the short run, the S&P500 may have seen a top near 4100 and could opt for a further downside correction, with the first bearish target set at 3956, the minor 23.6% Fibonacci retracement on the latest rally, then to around 3870, the major 38.2% retracement level and which should distinguish between a short-term bearish reversal, and the continuation of the latest bear market rally.   It is possible we will see the EURUSD recover to 1.10 and Cable to 1.30 within the next 3 to 6 months Looking at the FX, the Aussie was slightly better bid after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its rates by another 25bp today, and took the rates to levels last seen a decade ago.   Elsewhere, the US dollar strengthened as a result of the hawkish Fed rectification. The dollar index first eased to a fresh low since June, then rebounded. It has way to recover above its 200-DMA, which hints that some majors, including EURUSD and Cable could return below their 200-DMA as well.   Yet, even if we see rebounds in the US dollar, the medium to long term direction of the dollar will likely be the south in the coming months.   Read next: The reduction of fears related to a possible frosty winter may support the euro exchange rate | FXMAG.COM The currency markets are not like the equity markets, or the cryptocurrency markets. The valuation of one currency cannot go to the moon, forever. Therefore, it is possible we will see the EURUSD recover to 1.10 and Cable to 1.30 within the next 3 to 6 months.   Even the Japanese yen, which has been the black sheep of the year, is expected to do much better in the coming months.   Analysts at Barclays and Nomura expect the yen to rally more than 7% next year - which is not a big deal if you think that the US dollar gained up to 30% against the yen since the beginning of this year.   Vontobel sees the yen's fair value below the 100 level against the US dollar, which, on the other hand, is a bit stretched as the dollar-yen hasn't seen that level since 2016, and it was a short visit. The last time the dollar-yen was really below 100 is before 2013.   What's more realistic is, we see the dollar-yen trend slowly lower. In the short-run, resistance at 140 should keep the pair within the bearish trend with the next downside target set at 130.

Equities extend the downside recovery, following the failure to clear an important year-to-date resistance last week, which was the S&P500's year-to-date descending channel top at around the 4080 level. The index cleared the first bearish target, at 3956 level, the minor 23.6% retracement on the latest rebound and tested its 100-DMA to the downside, but managed to close above that level. Nasdaq slumped 2%, with Apple retreating more than 2.50% while Amazon lost 3% as investors dumped technology stocks faster than the others.   And even oil giants joined the selloff this week. Exxon lost more than 2.50% both on Monday and on Tuesday, as the latest drop in oil prices didn't help improve the mood.   The American crude lost more than 7% since the weekly open. If Monday's fall was mostly driven by a global market selloff, yesterday's selloff was definitely due to the EIA revising its oil production forecast higher for next year, after having cut this prediction for the past five months.   Read next: Presumably, stronger-than-expected ISM affected stocks. Aussie gained from the RBA decision | FXMAG.COM So, now, the EIA expects the US to pump around 12.34 mio barrels per day in 2023, approaching the historical high production of 2019.   Yesterday's selloff sent the barrel of Brent crude below the $80 mark for the first time since the very beginning of this year, and pulled the barrel of American crude a couple of cents below the late November dip, at around $73.40. And even the API data – which showed a 6.4-mio-barrel drop in US oil inventories couldn't bring the oil bulls in. The more official EIA data is due today. Trend and momentum indicators hint that the recession fears could well push the barrel of oil toward the $70pb despite falling oil reserves in the US.     Russian oil price cap is a warning for OPEC  What's good about the falling oil prices is that the Russian oil cap becomes somehow meaningless as prices fall, though the Europeans said to revise the cap every two months. For now, there is not much to worry apart from a couple of vessels carrying Russian oil that are stuck near Turkey as Turks ask insurance apparently to let them sail away.   But here is the thing. The fact that the G7, the EU and Australia agreed to cap the price of Russian oil gave a strong message to the rest of the oil producers: they could do the same with OPEC.  So far, US President Joe Biden reassured OPEC that this is not a 'buyers' league' and that the decisions apply only to Russia. But we can't stop thinking that if OPEC goes severely against the US' will to stop messing around with oil prices, there is no reason we won't see a buyers' league emerge from the darkness.

I told you where the high for the recovery would be!! - get ready for the crash!! Emini S&P December futures shorts at strong resistance at 4090/4110 are working exactly as predicted. AT LAST!!! Nasdaq December shorts are working with the break below 11750/700 yesterday as predicted. Emini Dow Jones futures break support at 33850/800 for a sell signal. Today's Analysis. Read next: Nigeria Bans Cash Withdrawal Higher Than 225$ To Encourage CBDC Use | FXMAG.COM Emini S&P December collapsed from strong resistance at 4090/4110 hitting my target of 3970/50 & strong support at 3930/10. Guess where the low of the day was!? That is the exact high & low for the move so far as predicted days before it happened! The bounce from 3930/10 meets strong resistance at 3960/70. A high for the day is likely. Shorts need stops above 3690. Support at 3930/10 is not expected to hold for ever. A break lower on a second or third test is obviously a sell signal targeting 380/70 then 3820/10. Nasdaq December breaks 11750/700 as predicted to hit my next target of 11550/500, with a low for the day exactly here. However further losses are expected to 11250. Below 11200 look for 11000/10950. Outlook remains negative of course so gains are likely to be limited with first resistance at 11630/690. Shorts need stops above 11770. Emini Dow Jones breaks support at 33850/800 for a sell signal targeting 33600 & support at 33300/200. A low for the day is possible but longs are more risky in the bear trend. A break below 33000 is a sell signal targeting 32750/700. Gains are likely to be limited with resistance at 33800/900. Shorts need stops above 34000.

DAILY MARKET NEWSLETTER December 7, 2022                 Pre-Market Session News Sentiment Technical Views           EUR/USD   Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)   Brent (ICE)                 Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.                     Price Movement Analyst Views Target Pivot   Dax (Eurex) 14,353.00 -124.00 (-0.86%) Read the analysis 14,270.00 14,478.00     FTSE 100 (ICE Europe) 0.00 0.00 (0.00%) Read the analysis 7,536.00 7,591.00     S&P 500 (CME) 3,943.25 -60.00 (-1.50%) Read the analysis 3,922.00 3,960.00     Nasdaq 100 (CME) 11,561.25 -244.50 (-2.07%) Read the analysis 11,480.00 11,670.00     Dow Jones (CME) 33,624.00 -362.00 (-1.07%) Read the analysis 33,470.00 33,730.00     Crude Oil (WTI) 74.27 -2.66 (-3.46%) Read the analysis 73.40 75.20     Gold 1,771.23 +2.55 (+0.14%) Read the analysis 1,765.00 1,776.00                     MARKET WRAP           Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, CommoditiesOn Tuesday, U.S. stocks remained under pressure. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 350 points (-1.03%) to 33,596, the S&P 500 fell 57 points (-1.44%) to 3,941, and the Nasdaq 100 was down 237 points (-2.01%) to 11,549.Media (-3.11%), energy (-2.65%), and semiconductors (-2.58%) sectors lost the most.Apple (AAPL) dropped 2.54% after Bloomberg reported that the tech giant plans to delay the launch of its electric vehicle to 2026.Meta Platforms (META) slid 6.79% on reports that European Union regulators do not allow the company to place personalized ads.NRG Energy (NRG) plunged 15.08% after the company agreed to buy Vivint Smart Home (VVNT) for 2.8 billion dollars.Goldman Sachs (GS) declined 2.32%. Reuters reported that the bank is considering buying crypto-currency companies.The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield retreated 4 basis points to 3.533%.European stocks also closed lower. The DAX 40 fell 0.72%, the CAC 40 dipped 0.14%, and the FTSE 100 was down 0.61%.U.S. WTI crude futures fell $2.70 (-3.51%) to $74.27 a barrel.Gold price added $2 to $1,771 an ounce.Market Wrap: ForexThe U.S. dollar regained further strength against other major currencies. The dollar index climbed to 105.58.EUR/USD fell 25 pips to 1.0466. Data showed that Germany’s factory orders grew 0.8% on month in October (vs +0.6% expected). November S&P Global construction purchasing managers index was posted at 43.6 for the Eurozone (vs 46.0 expected), at 41.5 for Germany (vs 45.1 expected), and at 40.7 for France (vs 49.9 expected).GBP/USD slid 61 pips to 1.2129.USD/JPY rose 31 pips to 137.06.AUD/USD declined 13 pips to 0.6685.USD/CHF dipped 5 pips to 0.9421, and USD/CAD increased 65 pips to 1.3653.Bitcoin kept struggling around the $17,000 level.Morning TradingIn Asian trading hours, Australia's data showed that third-quarter gross domestic product grew 0.6% on quarter (vs +0.8% expected) and 5.9% on year (vs +6.4% expected). China’s data showed that trade surplus declined to $69.84 billion (vs $81.00 billion expected) in November with exports slumping 8.7% on year (vs -3.5% expected).AUD/USD was stable at 0.6689, while USD/JPY traded higher at 137.20.EUR/USD dipped to 1.0461, and GBP/USD was flat at 1.2130.Gold price was little changed at $1,771 an ounce.Bitcoin managed to take back the level of $17,000.Expected Today  The U.K. Halifax house price index is expected to decline 0.1% on month but rise 7.1% on year in November.Germany’s industrial production is expected to decline 0.8% on month in October.Canada's central bank is expected to hike its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%.The U.S. Energy Department is expected to report a reduction of 3.88 million barrels in crude-oil stockpiles.           UK MARKET NEWS           Mitchells & Butlers Plc, a pub-&-restaurant operator, posted full-year results: "Total sales across the period were 2,208 million pounds reflecting a 1.3% decline on FY 2019, driven mainly by temporary covid-related sales reductions and closures in the first part of the year plus site disposals since FY 2019. Despite this, adjusted operating profit of 240 million pounds reflects a strong return to profitability. (...) On a statutory basis, profit before tax for the year was 8 million pounds (FY 2021 loss 42 million pounds)."Insurance, basic resources and utilities shares gained most in London on Monday.From a relative strength vs FTSE 100 point of view, Aviva (+0.18% to 444.2p), Barclays (+1.59% to 158.76p) crossed above their 50-day moving average.           ECONOMIC CALENDAR           Time Event Forecast Importance   02:00 Halifax House Price Index MoM (Nov) -0.1% MEDIUM     02:00 Halifax House Price Index YoY (Nov) 7.1% MEDIUM     08:30 Nonfarm Productivity QoQ Final (Q3) 0.3% MEDIUM     08:30 Unit Labour Costs QoQ Final (Q3) 3.5% MEDIUM     10:30 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (Dec/02) 2.707M MEDIUM     10:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Dec/02) -3.305M MEDIUM                                     NEWS SENTIMENT           Standard Chartered PLC STAN : LSE 591.80 GBp -4.15% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                 Trade                 Deutsche Bank AG DBK : XETRA 10.072 EUR -0.49% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                 Trade                 Siemens AG SIE : XETRA 133.76 EUR +1.94% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                 Trade                 Glencore PLC GLEN : LSE 556.10 GBp -1.31% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                 Trade         TECHNICAL VIEWS           EUR/USD Intraday: under pressure.   Pivot: 1.0485   Our preference: Short positions below 1.0485 with targets at 1.0445 & 1.0425 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Above 1.0485 look for further upside with 1.0515 & 1.0530 as targets.   Comment: The RSI is mixed to bearish.     Trade               Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)‎ (Z2)‎ Intraday: consolidation.   Pivot: 3971.00   Our preference: Short positions below 3971.00 with targets at 3921.00 & 3900.00 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Above 3971.00 look for further upside with 3984.00 & 3998.00 as targets.   Comment: As long as 3971.00 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.     Trade               Brent (ICE)‎ (G3)‎ Intraday: under pressure.   Pivot: 80.70   Our preference: Short positions below 80.70 with targets at 78.70 & 77.50 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Above 80.70 look for further upside with 82.40 & 83.65 as targets.   Comment: The RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.     Trade  

DAILY MARKET NEWSLETTER December 8, 2022             Pre-Market Session News Sentiment Technical Views       EUR/USD   Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)   Brent (ICE)             Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.             Price Movement Analyst Views Target Pivot   Dax (Eurex) 14,235.00 -42.00 (-0.29%) Read the analysis 14,210.00 14,357.00     FTSE 100 (ICE Europe) 0.00 0.00 (0.00%) Read the analysis 7,481.00 7,526.00     S&P 500 (CME) 3,928.75 -8.00 (-0.20%) Read the analysis 3,915.00 3,960.00     Nasdaq 100 (CME) 11,475.50 -34.00 (-0.30%) Read the analysis 11,430.00 11,600.00     Dow Jones (CME) 33,584.00 -41.00 (-0.12%) Read the analysis 33,470.00 33,760.00     Crude Oil (WTI) 72.75 +0.74 (+1.03%) Read the analysis 71.20 73.50     Gold 1,781.83 -4.442 (-0.25%) Read the analysis 1,790.00 1,776.00             MARKET WRAP       Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, CommoditiesOn Wednesday, U.S. stocks still lacked upward momentum. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed flat at 33,597, the S&P 500 declined 7 points (-0.19%) to 3,933, and the Nasdaq 100 was down 52 points (-0.45%) to 11,497.Consumer durables & apparel (+0.86%), pharmaceuticals & biotechnology (+0.85%), and health-care equipment & services (+0.84%) sectors gained the most, while automobiles (-2.67%), consumer services (-1.32%), and technology hardware & equipment (-1.2%) sectors were under pressure.Carvana (CVNA) plunged 42.92% after Bloomberg reported that the used-car platform is consulting lawyers and investment banks about options for managing its debt.Tesla (TSLA) fell 3.21%, TripAdvisor (TRIP) slid 6.41%, and Southwest Airlines (LUV) dropped 4.71%.On the other hand, Campbell Soup (CPB) rose 6.02%, as the company posted better-than-expected first-quarter earnings, and raised its annual outlook.Regarding U.S. economic data, third-quarter unit labor costs rose 2.4% on quarter (vs +3.5% expected), and nonfarm productivity gained 0.8% on quarter (vs +0.3% expected).The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield retreated 11.3 basis points to 3.419%.European stocks closed lower. The DAX 40 fell 0.57%, the CAC 40 dropped 0.41%, and the FTSE 100 was down 0.43%.U.S. WTI crude futures declined $1.80 to $72.46. The U.S. Energy Department reported a reduction of 5.19 million barrels in crude-oil stockpiles (vs -3.88 million barrels expected).Gold price jumped $14 to $1,786 an ounce.Market Wrap: ForexThe U.S. dollar weakened against other major currencies. The dollar index fell to 105.15.USD/CAD was little changed at 1.3655. The Bank of Canada raised its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points (vs +25 basis points expected) to 4.25%, the highest level in almost 15 years. The central bank signaled that its tightening campaign was near an end.USD/JPY fell 45 pips to 136.55.EUR/USD rose 41 pips to 1.0508. Germany's data showed that industrial production edged down 0.1% on month in October (vs -0.8% expected).GBP/USD climbed 77 pips to 1.2210. In the U.K., the Halifax house price index dropped 2.3% on month in November (vs -0.1% expected).AUD/USD gained 36 pips to 0.6724. USD/CHF lost 11 pips to 0.9409.Bitcoin traded slightly lower to $16,800.Morning TradingIn Asian trading hours, USD/JPY advanced further to 136.85. Japan's data showed that third-quarter gross domestic product growth was confirmed at -0.8% annualized on quarter (vs -1.0% estimated).AUD/USD traded lower to 0.6715. Australia's data showed that trade surplus declined to 12.22 billion Australian dollars in October with exports falling 1.0% on month (vs +1.0% expected).EUR/USD was little changed at 1.0503, and GBP/USD retreated to 1.2188.Gold price dipped to $1,783 an ounce.Bitcoin held up well at $16,870.Expected TodayIn the U.S., the latest number of initial jobless claims is expected to rise to 240,000.       UK MARKET NEWS       UK: The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors house price balance fell to -25% in November (vs -10% expected).British American Tobacco, a cigarette maker, posted a trading update: "We are confident in delivering our 2022 guidance, demonstrating once again the strength and resilience of our business. (...) Our New Category business continues to drive strong volume, revenue and market share growth and has become a significant contributor to group performance. (...) We expect growing contribution across all New Categories, and all Regions in 2022. We are confident in delivering our targets of 5 billion pounds revenue, and profitability by 2025."DS Smith, a packaging services provider, reported interim results: "For the six month period, revenue grew to 4,299 million pounds, up 26% on a constant currency basis and 28% on a reported basis (...) Adjusted basic earnings grew by 49% on a constant currency basis to 20.9 pence per share, reflecting the growth in profitability. (...) we are announcing an interim dividend for this year of 6.0 pence per share, an increase of 25%."Technology, chemicals and financial services shares fell most in London on Tuesday.From a relative strength vs FTSE 100 point of view, Barclays (-0.83% to 157.44p) crossed under its 50-day moving average.From a technical point of view, BP (-2.24% to 464p) crossed under its 50-day moving average.       ECONOMIC CALENDAR       Time Event Forecast Importance   08:30 Initial Jobless Claims (Dec/03) 240k MEDIUM     08:30 Continuing Jobless Claims (Nov/26) 1.62M LOW     08:30 Jobless Claims 4-week Average (Dec/03) 231k LOW     10:30 EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (Dec/02) -31Bcf LOW     11:30 8-Week Bill Auction   LOW     11:30 4-Week Bill Auction   LOW                     NEWS SENTIMENT       Standard Chartered PLC STAN : LSE 584.20 GBp -1.78% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                 Trade             Siemens AG SIE : XETRA 132.90 EUR -0.57% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                 Trade             Knorr-Bremse AG KBX : XETRA 52.24 EUR -5.26% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                 Trade             Glencore PLC GLEN : LSE 540.30 GBp -2.95% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                 Trade             Bayer AG BAYN : XETRA 52.80 EUR -4.05% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                 Trade     TECHNICAL VIEWS       EUR/USD Intraday: bullish bias above 1.0485.   Pivot: 1.0485   Our preference: Long positions above 1.0485 with targets at 1.0530 & 1.0550 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Below 1.0485 look for further downside with 1.0465 & 1.0440 as targets.   Comment: A support base at 1.0485 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.     Trade           Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)‎ (Z2)‎ Intraday: key resistance at 3949.00.   Pivot: 3949.00   Our preference: Short positions below 3949.00 with targets at 3908.00 & 3896.00 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Above 3949.00 look for further upside with 3960.00 & 3969.00 as targets.   Comment: The RSI lacks downward momentum.     Trade           Brent (ICE)‎ (G3)‎ Intraday: key resistance at 78.80.   Pivot: 78.80   Our preference: Short positions below 78.80 with targets at 76.30 & 75.10 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Above 78.80 look for further upside with 80.30 & 81.30 as targets.   Comment: The RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.     Trade

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam discusses the recent performance of US stocks in light of another hot jobs report and ahead of the final Fed meeting of the year.     This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. US stocks dip ahead of the Fed - MarketPulseMarketPulse

US stock indices have rallied impressively in October and November, but the start of December is still heavy. And now is the right time to figure out whether the previous two months were a bear market rally or the beginning of a new bull market. Right now, there is no answer to that question. It may not be until after the Fed meeting on December 14, as the markets need a strong signal to move from the current point. The stock market has been moving up in the last two months, initially due to a correction after oversold conditions and then on speculation that the Fed will slow the pace of policy tightening. We consider a further retreat in commodity prices to be another supportive factor that eases consumer and company spending burden. Nevertheless, the two-month rally in S&P500 has stalled near the 200-day moving average. The close of October above this curve triggered a sell-off momentum from the first days of December. It would have looked like technical profit-taking if not for the disturbing analogies, as the market reversed from this line in April and August. Read next: UK Santander Bank Fined USD 132 Million, Idris Elba in Cyberpunk 2077:Phantom Liberty| FXMAG.COM Another worrying signal is the performance of the VIX. It has reversed upwards twice since the beginning of the year from the 20 levels, almost coincidentally with the reversal of the S&P 500. By early December, this story repeats as the VIX have reversed to growth after briefly dipping below 20. During the 2000-2003 bear market, to which we often compare the current situation, it was prudent to remain bearish while the index was steadily below its 200-day average and the VIX fear index bounced back from 20. These correlations could still work now, although they give a buy signal with an impressive delay. It is also important to note that after the volatility of 2008, the buy signal from the VIX came a year late after the market bottomed in March 2009. This is understandable, as the Fed’s QE supported the market and suffered another three years of sharp corrections. Our days, market participants may postpone the decision about the future market regime until the Fed's official comments and press conference next Wednesday. Further assurances from the world's biggest central bank that the decline in inflation is sustainable and a slower rate hike is to be expected further, despite indications that the economy and labour market are still better than market expectations, will be required for continued gains in equities. However, when the market is determined, we may see a strong trend in one direction within a few weeks, so remember the importance of the current momentum. Looking at the market levels, an S&P500 rally above 4050 would open the way to 4300 within 4-6 weeks and to 4600 by the middle of next year. If the bears prevail, the S&P500 could make a new local low around 3600 before the end of January, and it will start making regular lows in the first quarter of next year.

As we are already approaching the end of the year, we see the Central Banks' latest interest rate decisions for the year. The continuation of the interest rate hike cycle seems to have given cause for pessimism in the markets. The S&P 500 Index (US500) has fallen by 1.9% since the start of the week. However, we could still see optimism in the Chinese markets following reports of a reduction in the zero-Covid policy restrictions. Macroeconomic data On Monday, we learned the results of the US and UK service sector PMIs. The reading for the US was 56.5 points (53.3 expected) and for the UK 48.8 points (48.8 expected). We seem to be able to see a stagnation among business expectations, as the values do not seem to have changed over the last three months. On the same day, we learned of the Central Bank of Australia's decision to raise interest rates to 3.1% (previously 2.85%), which was in line with analysts' consensus. On Tuesday, we learned about GDP growth in Australia, which came in at 0.6% q/q (0.7% q/q was expected). We also learned about the decision of the Central Bank of India, which decided to raise the benchmark rate as expected to 6.25% (previously 5.9%). Particularly important for the energy and commodity markets on the day was the report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), which gave its forecasts for future energy prices. It predicts that the price of WTI crude oil (XTIUSD) could stabilize next year and be in the range of US$92.36/b. Source: Conotoxia MT5, XTIUSD, Daily On Wednesday, we learnt of the Central Bank of Canada's decision, which, like its aforementioned predecessors, raised interest rates to 4.25% (previously 3.75%). Japan's quarterly GDP reading appears to have shown signs of a slowdown for the cherry blossom country. Japan's GDP fell by 0.2% q/q. (a decline of 0.3% q/q was expected) against a previous increase of 1.1%. On the same day, we learnt the weekly reading of crude oil inventories, which fell for the 4th week in a row. The current decline was larger than analysts' expectations at 5.2 million barrels (a decline of 3.3 million barrels was expected). It appears that this may have supported the fall in the price of the commodity.  On Thursday, we learnt the number of new claims for unemployment benefits in the United States, which came in line with expectations at 230,000 (previously 226,000 claims). The stock market This week did not seem positive for the stock market. The main US S&P 500 index has fallen by 1.9% since the start of the week. The most declining company on the index was US electricity and natural gas generation and distribution company NRG Energy (NRGEnergy), whose share price fell by more than 20%. The FAANG technology companies performed particularly poorly this week. Google (Alphabet) shares fell by 7.2%, Apple (Apple) fell by 3.8% and Amazon's valuation fell by 5.3%. Large declines were seen in the energy sector. The value of the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) fell by more than 7%. This appears to be due, among other things, to declines in oil prices. Source: Conotoxia MT5, NRGEnergy, Daily On Tuesday, we learned the third quarter results of, among others, car and truck parts and accessories company AutoZone (AutoZone). Earnings per share EPS surprised analysts positively at 27.45 (25.26 was expected). On Wednesday, liquor producer Brown-Forman Corporation (BrownForman), which has a broad portfolio of brands including Jack Daniel's, Woodford Reserve, Old Forester, Canadian Mist and Finlandia, reported quarterly results. Its EPS was worse than expected at 0.47 (0.55 was expected). On Thursday, we learnt the results of the company that designs and manufactures integrated circuits and other electronic components, Broadcom (Broadcom), which reported EPS of 10.45 (10.28 was expected). On the same day, the results of shop chain Costco (Costco) came in below expectations, showing earnings per share of 3.07 (3.12 expected). Currency and cryptocurrency market The foreign exchange market saw the following rate changes over the past week. We could see the biggest increases in the EUR/JPY (up 1.4%) and USD/CAD (1.1%), while the other popular pairs saw little or no change. We seem to be able to deduce from this a weakening of the Japanese yen after the falling GDP data and a weakening of the Canadian dollar after the interest rate decision. The currency market seems to have been fairly stable this week. Source: Conotoxia MT5, EURJPY, Daily The cryptocurrency market seems to be able to feel the thaw. The price of bitcoin (BTCUSD) has risen by 1.4% since the beginning of the week, and the price of ethereum (ETHUSD) has risen by more than 2%. The most rising cryptocurrency was Axie Infinity (AXSUSD), which has risen by 17.2% since the beginning of the week. It seems that the saying "buy when the blood pours" is starting to find confirmation in this market. However, we would have to wait a little longer to be able to say that definitively. Source: Conotoxia MT5, BTCUSD, Daily What can we expect next week? Next week's key macroeconomic data will start with Monday's UK quarterly GDP reading after the recent 0.2% quarter-on-quarter decline. On Tuesday, we will learn Germany's CPI inflation reading. Analysts are expecting no change. The previous reading was 10% y/y. On the same day, inflation in the United States (previously 7.7% y/y) will also be known. On Wednesday, the Fed's US interest rate decision seems particularly important, immediately followed by a conference call by chairman Jerome Powell. In addition, an inflation reading will be given on that day by the UK, for which analysts expect inflation to fall to 10.9% y/y. (previously 11.1% y/y). Wednesday seems particularly important for the currency market and borrowers. Interest rate decisions will be given by the central banks of Switzerland, the UK and the European Central Bank. The week will close with the Eurozone CPI inflation reading. In the stock market on Monday, we will learn the Q3 results of this year's company Oracle (Oracle), on which we wrote a commentary. On Wednesday, we will see the report of the company that builds and sells single-family homes and manages residential properties in the US Lennar (Lennar). On Thursday, we will see the results of the company selling software for artists and businesses Adobe (Adobe).   Grzegorz Dróżdż, Junior Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75,21% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Read the article on Conotoxia.com

DAILY MARKET NEWSLETTER December 9, 2022                 Pre-Market Session News Sentiment Technical Views           EUR/USD   Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)   Brent (ICE)                 Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.                     Price Movement Analyst Views Target Pivot   Dax (Eurex) 14,312.00 +36.00 (+0.25%) Read the analysis 14,375.00 14,259.00     FTSE 100 (ICE Europe) 0.00 0.00 (0.00%) Read the analysis 7,514.00 7,474.00     S&P 500 (CME) 3,970.00 +4.25 (+0.11%) Read the analysis 3,986.00 3,945.00     Nasdaq 100 (CME) 11,668.25 +22.75 (+0.20%) Read the analysis 11,750.00 11,555.00     Dow Jones (CME) 33,818.00 +15.00 (+0.04%) Read the analysis 33,935.00 33,660.00     Crude Oil (WTI) 72.16 +0.70 (+0.98%) Read the analysis 71.20 73.20     Gold 1,794.66 +5.522 (+0.31%) Read the analysis 1,803.00 1,785.00                     MARKET WRAP           Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, CommoditiesOn Thursday, U.S. stocks halted their decline. The S&P 500 rose 29 points (+0.75%) to 3,963 breaking an eight-session losing streak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 183 points (+0.55%) to 33,781, and the Nasdaq 100 was up 140 points (+1.22%) to 11,637.U.S. data showed that the latest initial jobless claims rose to 230,000 (vs 240,000 expected).Semiconductors (+3.11%), consumer services (+1.70%), and consumer durables & apparel (+1.58%) sectors gained the most, while telecoms services (-1.19%), energy (-0.47%), and automobiles (-0.40%) sectors remained under pressure.Nvidia (NVDA) jumped 6.51%, NXP Semiconductor (NXPI) rose 4.59%, and Marvell Technology (MRVL) was up 3.19%.U.S.-listed Chinese tech stocks posted gains as China appears to move away from restrict Covid measures. Baidu (BIDU) rose 5.02%, Alibaba (BABA) climbed 6.61%, and JD.com (JD) was up 3.28%.The U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) filed a complaint seeking to stop the purchase of video game maker Activision Blizzard (ATVI) by Microsoft (MSFT). Activision Blizzard (ATVI) slipped 1.54%, while Microsoft (MSFT) closed 1.24% higher.The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rebounded 6.9 basis points to 3.486%.European stocks showed a lack of momentum. The DAC 40 was little changed, while the CAC 40 dipped 0.20%, and the FTSE 100 was down 0.23%.U.S. WTI crude futures settled flat at $71.65 a barrel.Gold price added $3 to $1,789 an ounce.Market Wrap: ForexThe U.S. dollar softened against other major currencies. The dollar index declined to 104.79.EUR/USD jumped 51 pips to 1.0557.USD/JPY was flat at 136.62.GBP/USD rose 35 pips to 1.2238.AUD/USD gained 47 pips to 0.6772.USD/CHF dropped 48 pips to 0.9360, and USD/CAD fell 70 pips to 1.3583.Bitcoin advanced over 2% to $17,200.Morning TradingIn Asian trading hours, USD/JPY fell to 135.82. The Bank of Japan reported that the M2 money stock grew 3.1% on year in November (vs +3.0% expected).China’s data showed that consumer prices increased 1.6% on year in November (vs +1.8% expected). USD/CNH declined to 6.9588, while AUD/USD rose to 0.6787.EUR/USD traded higher to 1.0578, and GBP/USD climbed to 1.2272.Gold price advanced further to $1,794 an ounce.Bitcoin held at levels above $17,200.Expected TodayIn the U.S., producer prices are expected to add 0.3% on month and 7.3% on year in November.The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index is expected to dip to 56.4 in December.           UK MARKET NEWS           Berkeley Group, a property development company, posted half-year profit before taxation of 285 million pounds (vs 291 million pounds a year earlier), adding: "Revenue of 1,200.7 million pounds in the period (2021: 1,220.7 million pounds) arose primarily from the sale of new homes in London and the South East. (...) Basic earnings per share have decreased marginally to 200.4 pence per share (2021: 201.7 pence per share), (...) 2,080 new homes (2021: 1,828) were sold across London and the South East at an average selling price of £560,000 (2021: £647,000) reflecting the mix of properties sold in the period."Associated British Foods, a packaged food company, issued a trading update: "We continue to expect the aggregate profit of our Food businesses to be ahead of our last financial year. (...) For the full year, we continue to expect significant growth in sales for the Group, and adjusted operating profit and adjusted earnings per share to be lower than the previous financial year."Anglo American, a global mining giant, posted an investors update: "Anglo American to continue its improvement and growth momentum: 2022 Production down by c.3%: Quellaveco copper ramp-up and strong diamond production, offset by ore grades in Chile and lower production from Kumba and PGMs (...) Unit costs up c.16% (...) 2023 Production expected to increase by 5% as Quellaveco ramps up (...) Unit costs expected to increase by c.3%: inflation expected to moderate; and the benefit of Quellaveco (...) 2024 Production expected to increase by 5% (...) 2025 Production expected to be in line with 2024."Oil & Gas, telecom and basic resources shares fell most in London on Wednesday.In the telecommunications sector, BT Group (-3.72% to 112.55p) reached a new 3-month relative low against the FTSE 100.From a relative strength vs FTSE 100 point of view, BAE Systems (+1% to 831.4p) crossed above its 50-day moving average.From a technical point of view, BAT (-3.09% to 3305p) crossed under its 50-day moving average.           ECONOMIC CALENDAR           Time Event Forecast Importance   08:30 PPI YoY (Nov) 7.3% HIGH     08:30 PPI MoM (Nov) 0.3% HIGH     08:30 Core PPI MoM (Nov) 0.1% MEDIUM     08:30 Core PPI YoY (Nov) 6.1% LOW     10:00 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (Dec) 56.4 HIGH     10:00 Wholesale Inventories MoM (Oct) 0.8% MEDIUM     10:00 Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel (Dec) 4.8% LOW     10:00 Michigan Current Conditions Prel (Dec) 58 LOW     10:00 Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Prel (Dec) 2.9% LOW     10:00 Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel (Dec) 55 LOW     12:00 Fed Quarterly Financial Accounts   MEDIUM     12:00 WASDE Report   LOW     13:00 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count (Dec/09)   HIGH     13:00 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (Dec/09)   LOW                                     NEWS SENTIMENT           Standard Chartered PLC STAN : LSE 591.40 GBp -0.20% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   BP PLC BP. : LSE 463.95 GBp -3.52% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Deutsche Bank AG DBK : XETRA 10.022 EUR -0.02% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   British American Tobacco PLC BATS : LSE 3,305.00 GBp -3.02% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   AstraZeneca PLC AZN : LSE 11,316.00 GBp +1.23% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                           TECHNICAL VIEWS           EUR/USD Intraday: the bias remains bullish.   Pivot: 1.0540   Our preference: Long positions above 1.0540 with targets at 1.0595 & 1.0625 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Below 1.0540 look for further downside with 1.0520 & 1.0490 as targets.   Comment: The RSI shows upside momentum.                     Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)‎ (Z2)‎ Intraday: limited upside.   Pivot: 3923.00   Our preference: Long positions above 3923.00 with targets at 3947.00 & 3961.00 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Below 3923.00 look for further downside with 3911.00 & 3900.00 as targets.   Comment: The RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.                     Brent (ICE)‎ (G3)‎ Intraday: key resistance at 77.80.   Pivot: 77.80   Our preference: Short positions below 77.80 with targets at 75.70 & 74.50 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Above 77.80 look for further upside with 79.10 & 80.40 as targets.   Comment: As long as the resistance at 77.80 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 75.70 remains high.        

DAILY MARKET NEWSLETTER December 13, 2022                 Pre-Market Session News Sentiment Technical Views           EUR/USD   Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)   Brent (ICE)                 Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.                     Price Movement Analyst Views Target Pivot   Dax (Eurex) 14,324.00 -45.00 (-0.31%) Read the analysis 14,397.00 14,199.00     FTSE 100 (ICE Europe) 0.00 0.00 (0.00%) Read the analysis 7,499.00 7,431.00     S&P 500 (CME) 4,018.25 +50.00 (+1.26%) Read the analysis 4,045.00 3,982.00     Nasdaq 100 (CME) 11,809.50 +126.50 (+1.08%) Read the analysis 11,860.00 11,730.00     Dow Jones (CME) 34,218.00 +477.00 (+1.41%) Read the analysis 34,420.00 34,010.00     Crude Oil (WTI) 73.46 +2.44 (+3.44%) Read the analysis 75.40 72.80     Gold 1,781.22 -16.102 (-0.90%) Read the analysis 1,777.00 1,789.00                     MARKET WRAP           Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, CommoditiesOn Monday, major U.S. stock indexes rose over 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 528 points (+1.58%) to 34,005, the S&P 500 rose 56 points (+1.43%) to 3,990, and the Nasdaq 100 was up 143 points (+1.24%) to 11,706.The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield added 3.7 basis points to 3.615%.U.S. inflation data will be released on Tuesday, and the Federal Reserve will set interest rates on Wednesday.Transportation (+2.86%), energy (+2.49%), and software (+2.45%) sectors led the market higher.Microsoft (MSFT) rose 2.89% after announcing it will purchase a 4% stake in London Stock Exchange Group.Coupa Software (COUP) surged 26.67%. The cloud-based business software firm said it has agreed to be taken private by buyout firm Thoma Bravo in a deal that values the company at $8 billion.Amgen (AMGN) agreed to buy Horizon Pharma (HZNP) for $116.50 per share or $27.8 billion in total. Amgen's share price closed 0.67% higher, and Horizon Pharma jumped 15.49%.Rivian Automotive (RIVN) declined 6.16%. The company said it paused discussions with Mercedes-Benz on forming a strategic partnership over electric pickup trucks. European stocks closed lower. The DAX 40 fell 0.45%, the CAC 40 declined 0.41%, and the FTSE 100 was down 0.41%.Oil prices were supported by a prolonged outage of the Canada-to-U.S. Keystone crude-oil pipeline. U.S. WTI crude futures gained $2.40 (+3.38%) to $73.46 a barrel.Gold price slid $16 to $1,781 an ounce.Market Wrap: ForexThe U.S. dollar held up well against other major currencies. The dollar index climbed to 105.02.USD/JPY jumped 115 pips to 137.71.EUR/USD dipped 5 pips to 1.0535. GBP/USD rose 9 pips to 1.2268. U.K. gross domestic product grew 0.5% on month (vs +0.4% expected) and 1.5% on year (vs +1.6% expected) in October. Industrial production showed no growth in October, as expected,AUD/USD dropped 47 pips to 0.6748. This morning, the Westpac consumer confidence index rebounded 3.0% on month in December (vs -6.9% in November).USD/CHF added 23 pips to 0.9365, while USD/CAD was down 14 pips to 1.3631.Bitcoin regained the $17,000 level.Morning TradingIn Asian trading hours, USD/JPY held up well at 137.70, while AUD/USD remained under pressure at 0.6742.EUR/USD was little changed at 1.0533, while GBP/USD traded lower to 1.2256.Gold price was flat at $1,781 an ounce.Bitcoin kept trading at levels around $17,100.Expected TodayIn the U.K., the latest jobless rate is expected to edge up to 3.7%.In Germany, the ZEW economic sentiment index is expected to improve to -27 in December. And the November inflation rate is expected to be finalized at 10.0% on year.In the U.S., the inflation rate is expected to tick down to 7.6% on year in November.           UK MARKET NEWS           Royal Dutch Shell, an oil giant, announced the sale of its stake in two offshore production sharing contracts in Malaysia's Baram Delta to Petroleum Sarawak Exploration & Production Sdn Bhd for $475 million.InterContinental Hotels Group, a hotel operator, announced the appointment of Michael Glover as chief financial officer.Auto & Parts, insurance and travel & leisure shares gained most in London on Friday.From a relative strength vs FTSE 100 point of view, BAE Systems (+0.65% to 831p) crossed above its 50-day moving average.           ECONOMIC CALENDAR           Time Event Forecast Importance   02:00 Unemployment Rate (Oct) 3.7% HIGH     02:00 Claimant Count Change (Nov) 8k HIGH     02:00 Employment Change (Sep) -20k HIGH     02:00 Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (Oct) 6.1% MEDIUM     02:00 Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (Oct) 5.8% LOW     02:00 HMRC Payrolls Change (Nov) 45k LOW     05:00 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction   LOW     05:30 Financial Stability Report   LOW     05:30 BoE FPC Meeting Minutes   LOW     06:00 NFIB Business Optimism Index (Nov) 89 LOW     08:30 Inflation Rate MoM (Nov) 0.5% HIGH     08:30 Core Inflation Rate MoM (Nov) 0.4% HIGH     08:30 Core Inflation Rate YoY (Nov) 6.2% HIGH     08:30 Inflation Rate YoY (Nov) 7.6% HIGH     08:30 CPI (Nov) 299 MEDIUM     08:55 Redbook YoY (Dec/10)   LOW     10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (Dec) 41 MEDIUM     13:00 30-Year Bond Auction   LOW     16:30 API Crude Oil Stock Change (Dec/09)   MEDIUM                                     NEWS SENTIMENT           London Stock Exchange Group PLC LSEG : LSE 7,626.00 GBp -2.85% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Legal & General Group PLC LGEN : LSE 252.00 GBp -1.60% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   BHP Group PLC BHP : LSE 2,537.00 GBp -1.67% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Neutral       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Argo Group Ltd ARGO : LSE 11.00 GBp 0.00% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Bayerische Motoren Werke AG BMW : XETRA 84.43 EUR -0.89% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                           TECHNICAL VIEWS           EUR/USD Intraday: rebound.   Pivot: 1.0530   Our preference: Long positions above 1.0530 with targets at 1.0575 & 1.0590 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Below 1.0530 look for further downside with 1.0505 & 1.0490 as targets.   Comment: The RSI shows upside momentum.                     Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)‎ (Z2)‎ Intraday: intraday support around 3902.00.   Pivot: 3902.00   Our preference: Long positions above 3902.00 with targets at 3951.00 & 3970.00 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Below 3902.00 look for further downside with 3879.00 & 3864.00 as targets.   Comment: The RSI lacks downward momentum.                     Brent (ICE)‎ (G3)‎ Intraday: further upside.   Pivot: 77.60   Our preference: Long positions above 77.60 with targets at 80.00 & 80.80 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Below 77.60 look for further downside with 76.80 & 76.10 as targets.   Comment: The RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.        

European equities traded in the red at the start of the week, but equities in the US rebounded as investors are hanging on to hope of slower inflation and reasonably hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) by their fingernails.    Today and tomorrow will tell whether they are right being optimistic or not.   The latest US CPI data will reveal whether inflation in the US eased, and by how much. It's highly likely that we will see a number below the 7.7% printed a month earlier. But a number below 7.7% won't be enough as analysts expected it to ease all the way down to 7.3%.   Last Friday, the PPI figure showed that the US factory gate prices eased in November, but not as much as penciled in – leading to some disappointment among investors. Today, a similar disappointment could erase yesterday's 1.43% rebound in the S&P500 and could easily send the index below its 100-DMA. Read next: Microsoft (MSFT) rose 2.89% after announcing it will purchase a 4% stake in London Stock Exchange Group| FXMAG.COM  But if, by any chance, we see a softer CPI figure, then the S&P500 could easily jump above its 200-DMA, and even above the ytd descending channel top.   But, but, but...  Today's US CPI data, unless there is a huge surprise, will probably not change the Fed's plan to hike the interest rates by 50bp this week. Activity on Fed funds futures gives 77% chance for a 50bp hike, and a slim chance of 23% for another 75bp hike.   What will probably change is where investors see the Fed's terminal rate, and for how long.   More importantly, it will give us an idea on how the market pricing for the Fed's terminal rate will clash with the dot plot projections that will come out tomorrow, and that will, in all cases, hammer any potentially optimistic market sentiment.   Therefore, even if we see a great CPI print and a nice market rally today, it may not extend past the Fed decision on Wednesday.   Energy up.  European stock investors are uncomfortable this week due to the icy cold weather, that will get the countries to tap into the natural gas, and other energy supplies.   The US nat gas prices jumped more than 30% since last week due to a powerful Pacific storm bringing cold and snow to the norther and central plains in the US.   In the UK, power prices hit another ATH yesterday. Read next: An incoming cold spell in the US has seen the cost of US gas surge 27% during the past three trading session while (...) Dutch TTF gas contracts remain below €150| FXMAG.COM   Happily, we haven't seen a significant rise in the European nat gas futures, which in contrary kicked off the week downbeat.   But crude oil rallied as much as 2.60% on Monday as Russia said that the EU's $60 cap on its oil could lead to supply cuts, as Goldman said that Chinese reopening could boost demand by 1mpd - which would mean a $15 recovery in crude's price - and as a key pipeline supplying the US closed following a spill discovered last week.   I think that the oil rebound due to these three factors could be short-lived and may offer interesting top selling opportunities for medium term bears looking for a further dip in oil prices to below $70pb. Because, the Russia is not harmed by $60pb currently, US supplies will be restored and  the Chinese reopening may not be smooth due to potential disruptions in economic activity, because people are sick.   Don't count on strong UK GDP  The British GDP grew more than expected last month and that was mostly due to the rebound in activity after Queen Elizabeth's death slowed activity earlier. But strikes across the country are so severe that they could wipe half a billion pounds off the hospitality industry's pre-Xmas earnings. PM Rishi Sunak thinks that military staff could help cover for striking workers.   Cable consolidates gains below 1.23 but is at the mercy of the US dollar. The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to hike by 50bp at this week's MPC meeting, but the hike will certainly be accompanied by dovish statement as the UK economy is not strong enough to withstand a Fed-like tightening in the middle of an energy, and cost-of-living crisis.

DAILY MARKET NEWSLETTER December 14, 2022                 Pre-Market Session News Sentiment Technical Views           EUR/USD   Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)   Brent (ICE)                 Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.                     Price Movement Analyst Views Target Pivot   Dax (Eurex) 14,476.00 -11.00 (-0.08%) Read the analysis 14,530.00 14,310.00     FTSE 100 (ICE Europe) 0.00 0.00 (0.00%) Read the analysis 7,517.00 7,462.00     S&P 500 (CME) 4,068.25 +13.00 (+0.32%) Read the analysis 4,088.00 4,025.00     Nasdaq 100 (CME) 12,001.00 +42.25 (+0.35%) Read the analysis 12,100.00 11,850.00     Dow Jones (CME) 34,492.00 +104.00 (+0.30%) Read the analysis 34,750.00 34,200.00     Crude Oil (WTI) 75.21 -0.18 (-0.24%) Read the analysis 76.40 74.00     Gold 1,809.93 -0.87 (-0.05%) Read the analysis 1,824.00 1,800.00                     MARKET WRAP           Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, CommoditiesOn Tuesday, U.S. stocks closed higher as market sentiment was lifted by softer-than-expected inflation data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 103 points (+0.30%) to 34,108, the S&P 500 increased 29 points (+0.73%) to 4,019, and the Nasdaq 100 gained 127 points (+1.09%) to 11,834.In fact, stocks pared gains ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision on Wednesday. The S&P 500 once jumped over 2.7% within the session.U.S. data showed that consumer prices grew only 7.1% on year in November, slower than +7.6% expected and +7.7% in October. Monthly inflation rate was only 0.1% (vs +0.3% expected, +0.4% in October)..The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield sank 10.8 basis points to 3.503%.Media (+2.15%), real estate (+2.04%), and semiconductors (+1.85%) sectors led the market higher.Meta Platforms (META) rose 4.74%, Amazon.com (AMZN) gained 2.14%, Alphabet (GOOGL) climbed 2.49%, Apple (AAPL) edged up 0.68%, while Tesla (TSLA) slid 4.09%.Moderna (MRNA) surged 19.63%, and Merck & Co (MRK) rose 1.78%. A treatment developed by both company proved to reduce melanoma deaths in a mid-stage trial.United Airlines (UAL) fell 6.94% after the company announced an order of 100 Boeing 787 jets.European stocks also closed higher. The DAX 40 rose 1.34%, the CAC 40 increased 1.42%, and the FTSE 100 was up 0.76%.U.S. WTI crude futures advanced $2.10 to $75.25 a barrel.Gold price jumped $28 to $1,810 an ounce.Market Wrap: ForexThe U.S. dollar dropped sharply against other major currencies as softer-than-expected inflation data led investors to anticipate slower interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The dollar index fell to 104.04.USD/JPY sank 206 pips (-1.50%) to 135.61.EUR/USD jumped 93 pips to 1.0630. In Germany, the ZEW economic sentiment index improved to -23.3 in December (vs -27.0 expected).GBP/USD increased 94 pips to 1.2363. In the U.K., the latest jobless rate edged up to 3.7% (as expected). The number of jobless claims increased 30,500 in November (vs +3,300 expected).AUD/USD climbed 109 pips to 0.6854.USD/CHF fell 72 pips to 0.9291, and USD/CAD slid 88 pips to 1.3548.Bitcoin gained over 3% to $17,700.Morning TradingIn Asian trading hours, the Bank of Japan reported that its Tankan large manufacturers index fell to 7 (vs 6 expected) in the fourth quarter, while the Tankan large non-manufacturers index rose to 19 (vs 16 expected). Also, core machine orders grew 5.4% on month in October (vs +2.4% expected).USD/JPY remained subdued at 135.52.EUR/USD dipped to 1.0623, GBP/USD traded lower to 1.2348, and AUD/USD fell to 0.6827.Gold price was stable at $1,810 an ounce.Bitcoin advanced further to $17,820.Expected TodayIn the U.K., the inflation rate is expected to tick down to 11.0% on year and 0.7% on month in November. The retail price index is expected to increase 0.6% on year in November.The Eurozone's industrial production is expected to decline 1.2% on month in October.In the U.S., the Federal Reserve is expected to raise its key interest rates by 50 basis points to 4.25-4.50%.The U.S. Energy Department is expected to report a reduction of 3.595 million barrels in the crude-oil stockpiles.           UK MARKET NEWS           U.K. data showed that the inflation rate slowed to 10.7% on year (vs +11.0% expected) and 0.4% on month (vs +0.7% expected) in November.Auto & Parts, retail and basic resources shares fell most in London on Monday.From a relative strength vs FTSE 100 point of view, BAE Systems (-1.2% to 821p), Compass Group (-0.18% to 1899p) crossed under their 50-day moving average.           ECONOMIC CALENDAR           Time Event Forecast Importance   02:00 Core Inflation Rate MoM (Nov) 0.6% HIGH     02:00 Inflation Rate MoM (Nov) 0.7% HIGH     02:00 Inflation Rate YoY (Nov) 11% HIGH     02:00 Core Inflation Rate YoY (Nov) 6.6% MEDIUM     07:00 MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Dec/09)   MEDIUM     08:30 Export Prices MoM (Nov) -0.4% MEDIUM     08:30 Import Prices MoM (Nov) -0.4% MEDIUM     10:30 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (Dec/09) 2.714M MEDIUM     10:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Dec/09) -3.595M MEDIUM     14:00 Fed Interest Rate Decision 4.5% HIGH     14:00 FOMC Economic Projections   HIGH     14:00 Interest Rate Projection - Longer   MEDIUM     14:00 Interest Rate Projection - 3rd Yr   MEDIUM     14:00 Interest Rate Projection - 2nd Yr   MEDIUM     14:00 Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr   MEDIUM     14:00 Interest Rate Projection - Current   MEDIUM     14:30 Fed Press Conference   HIGH                                     NEWS SENTIMENT           Legal & General Group PLC LGEN : LSE 258.20 GBp +1.89% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   HSBC Holdings PLC HSBA : LSE 500.10 GBp +1.27% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Barclays PLC BARC : LSE 161.78 GBp +2.76% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Deutsche Lufthansa AG LHA : XETRA 7.989 EUR +4.58% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Deutsche Bank AG DBK : XETRA 10.248 EUR +2.83% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Neutral       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Rio Tinto PLC RIO : LSE 5,747.00 GBp +2.33% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                           TECHNICAL VIEWS           EUR/USD Intraday: the bias remains bullish.   Pivot: 1.0600   Our preference: Long positions above 1.0600 with targets at 1.0655 & 1.0675 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Below 1.0600 look for further downside with 1.0580 & 1.0550 as targets.   Comment: The RSI shows upside momentum.                     Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)‎ (Z2)‎ Intraday: choppy.   Pivot: 3941.00   Our preference: Long positions above 3941.00 with targets at 3995.00 & 4017.00 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Below 3941.00 look for further downside with 3919.00 & 3903.00 as targets.   Comment: The RSI is mixed.                     Brent (ICE)‎ (G3)‎ Intraday: bullish bias above 79.25.   Pivot: 79.25   Our preference: Long positions above 79.25 with targets at 81.30 & 82.30 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Below 79.25 look for further downside with 78.50 & 77.40 as targets.   Comment: The next resistances are at 81.30 and then at 82.30.        

DAILY MARKET NEWSLETTER December 15, 2022                 Pre-Market Session News Sentiment Technical Views           EUR/USD   Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)   Brent (ICE)                 Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.                     Price Movement Analyst Views Target Pivot   Dax (Eurex) 14,399.00 -65.00 (-0.45%) Read the analysis 14,350.00 14,505.00     FTSE 100 (ICE Europe) 0.00 0.00 (0.00%) Read the analysis 7,461.00 7,509.00     S&P 500 (CME) 4,030.50 -0.25 (-0.01%) Read the analysis 4,070.00 3,997.00     Nasdaq 100 (CME) 11,854.50 -14.50 (-0.12%) Read the analysis 12,060.00 11,730.00     Dow Jones (CME) 34,258.00 +19.00 (+0.06%) Read the analysis 34,620.00 33,960.00     Crude Oil (WTI) 76.63 -0.65 (-0.84%) Read the analysis 77.80 75.70     Gold 1,795.33 -11.995 (-0.66%) Read the analysis 1,785.00 1,805.00                     MARKET WRAP           Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, CommoditiesOn Wednesday, U.S. stocks posted an intraday reversal to the downside after investors digested Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish post-rate-hike comments. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 142 points lower (-0.42%) to 33,966, the S&P 500 fell 24 points (-0.61%) to 3,995, and the Nasdaq 100 slid 93 points (-0.79%) to 11,740.As widely expected, the Federal Reserve raised its key interest rates by 50 basis points to 4.25-4.50%. The Fed now projects the key rate to reach 5.10% by the end of 2023.And Jerome Powell pointed out the central bank will not cut interest rates until its inflation target of 2% is reached.The U.S. 10-year Treasury Yield dropped 2.9 basis points to 3.472%.Automobiles (-2.14%), diversified financials (-1.56%), and semiconductors (-1.49%) sectors lost the most.Tesla (TSLA) sank a further 2.58% after Goldman Sachs lowered its price target on the stock.Marriott International (MAR) fell 2.32% as the hotel operator was downgraded to "neutral" at Citi.On the other hand, Delta Air Lines (DAL) rose 2.79% as the airline gave a better-than-expected full-year guidance on adjusted earnings per share.Pfizer (PFE) gained 2.66% on reports that the drugmaker has been allowed to import and distribute antiviral drug Paxlovid in China.European stocks also closed lower. The DAX 40 fell 0.26%, the CAC 40 dropped 0.21%, and the FTSE 100 dipped 0.09%.U.S. WTI crude futures added $2.00 to $77.38 a barrel. The U.S. Energy Department reported an addition of 10.23 million barrels in crude-oil stockpiles, in contrast to a reduction of 3.59 million barrels expected.Gold price declined $3 to $1,807 an ounce.Market Wrap: ForexThe U.S. dollar softened against other major currencies. The dollar index declined to 103.62.EUR/USD rose 52 pips to 1.0685. Data showed that the Eurozone's industrial production declined 2.0% on month in October (vs -1.2% expected).GBP/USD gained 64 pips to 1.2430. In the U.K., the inflation rate slowed to 10.7% on year in November (vs +11.0% expected).USD/JPY dropped 16 pips to 135.43.AUD/USD added 9 pips to 0.6864. This morning, Australia's data showed that the jobless rate remained stable at 3.4% in November with employment rising by 64,000 (vs +25,000 expected).USD/CHF declined 44 pips to 0.9240, and USD/CAD was little changed at 1.3544.Bitcoin once broke above $18,000 before retreating to $17,800 after the 50-basis-point rate hike was confirmed.Morning TradingIn Asian trading hours, Japan's data showed that trade deficit narrowed to 2.03 trillion yen in November (vs 1.80 trillion yen expected) with exports increasing 20.0% on year (vs +24.0% expected).USD/JPY was stable at 135.53.Australia's data showed that the jobless rate remained stable at 3.4% in November with employment rising by 64,000 (vs +25,000 expected).AUD/USD declined to 0.6839.EUR/USD retreated to 1.0655, and GBP/USD traded lower to 1.2392.Gold price lost again the handle of $1,800 an ounce.Bitcoin declined further to $17,720.Expected TodayIn the U.K., the Bank of England is expected to raise its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.50%.The European Central Bank is expected to increase its key interest rates by 50 basis points to 2.0-2.5%.In the U.S., retail sales are expected to grow 0.2% on month in November. The latest number of initial jobless claims is expected at 235,000.The New York State manufacturing index is expected to fall to 1.0 in December, while the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index is expected to improve to -7.0 in December.           UK MARKET NEWS           AstraZeneca, a global biopharmaceutical company, said the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) will extend the Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) date by three months to provide further time for a full review of the supplementary new drug application (sNDA) for Lynparza (olaparib) in combination with abiraterone and prednisone or prednisolone for the treatment of metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC).Auto & Parts, chemicals and insurance shares gained most in London on Tuesday.From a relative strength vs FTSE 100 point of view, BAE Systems (+1.61% to 834.2p), Compass Group (+1.37% to 1925p), Croda International (+0.29% to 7016p) crossed above their 50-day moving average.           ECONOMIC CALENDAR           Time Event Forecast Importance   07:00 BoE Interest Rate Decision 3.5% HIGH     07:00 MPC Meeting Minutes   MEDIUM     07:00 BoE MPC Vote Cut 0/9 MEDIUM     07:00 BoE MPC Vote Unchanged 0/9 MEDIUM     07:00 BoE MPC Vote Hike 9/9 MEDIUM     08:30 Retail Sales MoM (Nov) 0.2% HIGH     08:30 Initial Jobless Claims (Dec/10) 235k MEDIUM     08:30 NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Dec) 1 MEDIUM     08:30 Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (Nov) 0.5% MEDIUM     08:30 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec) -7 MEDIUM     09:15 Industrial Production YoY (Nov) 2.7% MEDIUM     09:15 Industrial Production MoM (Nov) -0.2% MEDIUM     10:00 Business Inventories MoM (Oct) 0.3% MEDIUM     16:00 Net Long-term TIC Flows (Oct)   MEDIUM     19:01 GfK Consumer Confidence (Dec) -43 HIGH                                     NEWS SENTIMENT           HSBC Holdings PLC HSBA : LSE 497.70 GBp +0.48% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Neutral       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Uniper SE UN01 : XETRA 3.044 EUR -7.25% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   RWE AG RWE : XETRA 42.73 EUR +2.08% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Neutral       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Rio Tinto PLC RIO : LSE 5,622.00 GBp -2.73% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Deliveroo PLC ROO : LSE 86.90 GBp -4.06% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Barclays PLC BARC : LSE 160.26 GBp +2.21% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                           TECHNICAL VIEWS           EUR/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.   Pivot: 1.0635   Our preference: Long positions above 1.0635 with targets at 1.0700 & 1.0725 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Below 1.0635 look for further downside with 1.0610 & 1.0585 as targets.   Comment: The RSI lacks downward momentum.                     Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)‎ (Z2)‎ Intraday: under pressure.   Pivot: 3984.00   Our preference: Short positions below 3984.00 with targets at 3944.00 & 3921.00 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Above 3984.00 look for further upside with 3995.00 & 4017.00 as targets.   Comment: As long as the resistance at 3984.00 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 3944.00 remains high.                     Brent (ICE)‎ (G3)‎ Intraday: bullish bias above 81.20.   Pivot: 81.20   Our preference: Long positions above 81.20 with targets at 83.60 & 85.20 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Below 81.20 look for further downside with 80.10 & 78.60 as targets.   Comment: Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.        

USDCHF attempts to bottom out The Swiss franc retreated after the SNB raised its policy interest rate by 50 basis points as expected. On the daily chart, the US counterpart is testing last April’s lows near 0.9220 after giving up all gains from the most part of this year. As the RSI shows a bullish divergence in this demand zone, bargain hunters have scooped the bottom but the mood is too cautious to warrant a reversal yet. 0.9380 is the first hurdle ahead and its breach would ease the downward pressure. Failing that, the dollar could tank below 0.9220. NZDUSD drifts lower The New Zealand dollar slipped after the Fed stressed on keeping the interest rates high for longer. The kiwi’s break above the August high of 0.6460 has helped improve sentiment. Now the bulls will need to consolidate their foothold before they could push higher. A fall below the origin of the latest bullish candle suggests a lack of follow-through, and in conjunction with signs of overextension from the overbought RSI, may prompt buyers to take profit. 0.6300 is the closest support and 0.6460 a fresh resistance. NAS 100 breaks major support The Nasdaq 100 plunged as global central banks' hawkishness rattled investors. The choppy price action was due to multiple catalysts this week and layers of resistance from last September’s sell-off. The most recent rally reversed its course at 12200, a support-turned-resistance from mid-September. A breach of the lower end (11500) of the consolidation confirmed a lack of buying interest and might cause a test of the origin of a previous bullish breakout at 11150. As the RSI goes oversold, 11800 is a fresh hurdle in case of a bounce.

Stocks are down substantially this year, even including indices which had a bit of a rally through the last month or so. There has been a split in trend, which is worthy of note. The DJIA moved higher, while the Nasdaq remained relatively steady. In Europe, indices don't concentrate in certain sectors like they do in the US, but a similar trend has emerged when considering certain types of firms. The Dow Jones consists mostly of lower valuation, so called "value stocks", which have been outperforming. Tech stocks have continued to underperform, even in periods of recovery. This is often attributed to their relatively high valuations, meaning that they are more speculative. The Fed's tightening contributes to reducing interest in higher valuation stocks, and now the Fed is expected to slow its rate hikes. This could be an indication of which sectors/stocks could benefit the most from a Santa Rally. What are the chances this time? In order to make an educated guess about whether we can expect a rally this year or not, we need to have a better understanding of why it happens. Which is a bit of a problem, because there isn't much agreement on the causes of the rally. Not only that, but there also isn’t even an agreement on when it happens. Some say it's in the week before Christmans, others say it's the week between Christmas and New Year, and still others say it's both. So far this month, stocks have been trending higher thanks to an expectation that the Fed won't keep hiking rates so much. Now that they have delivered, the expectation is that US stocks can continue to rise. Across the Atlantic, the situation is a little more complicated, as the UK is expected to fall further into recession. Even if the BOE slowed the pace of hiking, there might not be as much room for optimism. Meanwhile, the ECB threatened to keep raising rates. That is expected, however, since the shared central bank was one of the last to join the hiking movement, so would likely be one of the last to end its tightening cycle. Read next: In December, the Fed maintained a tougher rhetoric than the market consensus, playing on the bears' side| FXMAG.COM What can we expect? Santa rallies happen about 2 out of 3 years, on average gaining about 1.3% over the period from Christmas to the Jan 2 of the next year. It's positive, sure, but not a blow-out growth. Particularly not in the context of the market losing around 17% since the start of the year. Another difficulty is that the final two weeks of trading for the year see dwindling liquidity as major traders go on holiday. Usually, starting with the final meeting of the Fed, activity starts to drop off, reaching a minimum between Christmas and New Years. That means that volatility tends to increase, with more erratic moves in the markets as relatively small trades can cause bigger moves. Other factors In general, markets tend to average higher through December. But in the case of the US in particular, they tend to do even better in an election year. 2018 was a notable exception, as the Fed was tightening though that period. After stocks performed better in the run-up to the Fed, investors might have some time to digest the results. They could pay more attention to how the market is currently pricing in a terminal rate of 4.85%, but the average of forecasts from the Fed is 5.1%. That could lead to a revaluation of where the Fed could go in the first quarter of next year and let the Grinch into steak the Christmas cheer.

Silver has strong support again at 2270/50. Outlook remains positive. Today's Analysis. Gold reversed from 1797/99 has dipped to first support at 1782/80. Longs need stops below 1771. Longs at 1782/80 target 1790 then 1797/99. A break higher targets 1807/09. Eventually a retest of 1822/24 is likely. Silver longs at support at 2270/50 worked perfectly on the bounce to 2323. Minor resistance at 2330/35 held yesterday but eventually this should be beaten to target 2360/65 & 2390/2400. Strong support again at 2270/50. Longs need stops below 2235. WTI Crude February resistance at 7620/70. Shorts need stops above 7730. A break higher is a buy signal targeting 7750 then 7900. Targets for shorts are 7520, 7420 Emini S&P March finally collapsed - I have waited far too long for this move & I do not understand why we saw a 4% rally on the CPI number. The massive negative candle on the weekly chart suggests the next leg lower in the bear trend will be brutal for bulls. Nasdaq March lower as predicted to 11400/350 with the close below 11300 acting as the next sell signal targeting 11100/11000 - a low for the day only 32 ticks above. Emini Dow Jones March collapsed as expected after the sell signal, hitting my target of 33100/33000 & only 20 ticks from 32850/750 A 50% CRASH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION Remember when support is broken it usually acts as resistance & vice-versa. Update daily by 06:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Emini S&P March finally collapsed & I believe we are resuming the 2022 bear trend at last. We broke support at 3940/30 & I think we should continue lower as investors reality finally wake up & accept the reality that there is no pivot or rate cut coming. At last the market is reacting negatively to bad news & not seeing it as a factor that will force a pivot - this last month has been a load of nonsense!! We hit my next targets of 3910/00 then 3870/60 & 17 points from 3810/00. On further losses look for 3785/75, perhaps as far as 3735. Again, gains are likely to be limited with minor resistance at 3900/10 (a high for the day exactly here in fact) & strong resistance at 3940/60. Shorts need stops above 3980. Nasdaq March close below 11300 is the next sell signal targeting 11100/11000, perhaps as far as 10850/750. Gains are likely to be limited with strong resistance at 11380/420. Strong resistance at 11530/590. Shorts need stops above 11700. Emini Dow Jones collapsed again as predicted to my target of 32850/750. Longs are risky. A break lower targets 32500/450 then 32100/32000. Gains are likely to be limited with strong resistance at 33300 & 33600/700. Shorts need stops above 33800.

USDCHF tests major support The US dollar slipped after data showed a rise in initial claims for unemployment benefits. The price is testing last April’s low near 0.9200 after giving up all the gains from the breakout rally eight months ago. This means that the greenback is at a critical level as a deeper fall would cause a bearish reversal in the medium-term. On the hourly chart, the latest rebounds hit resistance at 0.9345, forming a double top in the process. 0.9290 would be the first hurdle to lift before a recovery could materialise. NZDUSD bounces back The New Zealand dollar recovers thanks to an uptick in overall risk appetite. After the pair cleared the August high of 0.6460, sentiment favours the kiwi as it goes into a consolidation mode. A bounce off 0.6230 indicates that buyers have stepped in and a close above 0.6330 has prompted short-term sellers to cover their bets. 0.6300 has become a fresh support. The support-turned-resistance at 0.6400 is a major obstacle and its breach could help the bulls regain control and extend the rally beyond 0.6500 eventually. NAS 100 tests critical floor The Nasdaq 100 bounces as signs of a cooling US labour market eases concerns about a hawkish Fed. On the daily chart, a U-turn from mid-September’s sell-off point (12200) was disconcerting. With the price having retraced all the way back to the start (10620) of the November rally, the index could be vulnerable to renewed selling. A break below 10450 would confirm a dead cat bounce and cause a sustained bear market. 11130 is the first resistance and 11280 a key level to lift before buyers could turn the situation around. Read next: Apple rose 2.83%, Amazon.com gained 2.88%, Alphabet climbed 2.82%, Meta Platforms advanced 4.01%, and Netflix was up 5.14%| FXMAG.COM

Good news is that Asian stocks entered bull market. Bad news is that the Federal Reserve (Fed) President Jerome Powell could hammer the post-NFP stock rally in US stocks. Sentiment is mixed and investors are tense before Powell's speech, and Thursday's US inflation data.  Asia enters bull market  Asian stocks entered the bull market, as China's post-covid reopening, the weakening US dollar, and stimulus from the Chinese government and central bank supported a sustained rally in Chinese, and the Asian stocks since last October.   As a result, the MSCI Asia Pacific index gained more than 20% since the October dip.   Plus, China announced that it will continue supporting growth with unheard amounts of stimulus packages. It is on the news that the Chinee officials are discussing a record 3.8 trillion yuan quota for local government bond issuance this year – it equals $561 billion US dollars.   Many investors expect the Asian equities to diverge positively from their Western peers through this year.  Tense before Powell  In the US, the good mood is more difficult to justify and to extend. The euphoria around Friday's jobs data faded on Monday, when Fed officials came up and said that... the Fed rates will go above the 5% level and stay there for some time.   Sounds familiar? Yes, it does, because the Fed officials have been saying that they will push the rates above 5% and keep them there for a long time to make sure that inflation is on a solid path toward the 2% target.   The S&P500 was unable to extend gains above the 3900, rapidly started erasing early-session gains and ended the session 0.08% lower. Nasdaq also gave back early-session gains, though closed the session 0.60% higher.  Read next: Tesla Is Expected A Temporary Rally| FXMAG.COM US equity futures are in the negative this morning, as the King of market disappointment, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell, will be speaking at an event in Stockholm today, and he will probably not pop the champagne just because the wages grew less than expected last month, especially when you think that the US economy added a near record 4.5 million jobs last year, and that the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%.   Looking at the activity on Fed funds futures, the pricing suggests that the Fed will raise the rates by 50bp at the beginning of February. This means that there is a good margin for hawkish pricing in the coming weeks, into the Fed decision. Thursday's inflation read will be key in tilting the balance to one side, or to the other. A soft enough inflation figure could get investors to further go against the Fed.  In the FX   The US dollar index remains under a decent selling pressure, as a result of the dovish Fed expectations since last Friday's US jobs data. While any hawkish readjustment could give a minor boost to the dollar, the US dollar is set for further weakness this year. If the Fed shifts to a more dovish tone, the dollar should weaken, and if not, the dollar should still weaken on rising recession odds.   The EURUSD advanced to 1.0760 yesterday, which is the highest levels since last summer, while Cable flirted with 1.22 this morning. Gold consolidates gains above $1870, while we are about to see a golden cross formation on the daily chart, where the 50-DMA will shortly go past the 200-DMA.   Other supportive factors of gold prices these days are the softening US yields, and the cheapening US dollar. A softer inflation report on Thursday could get the bulls to target a rally above $1900.  Read next: 2023 Predictions: Central banks were buying gold at the end of the year at the highest rate since 1955 | FXMAG.COM In energy, crude oil remains under pressure despite the Chinese reopening talk, and the falling Russian supply. We see that the European sanctions weigh on Russian oil supply, as the 4-week average shipments decline despite a small gain posted last week. That means that the lower Russian supply will be another supportive factor of oil prices, besides the Chinese reopening, the tight global supply, the rising global demand defying recession odds, the fact that the Americans will have to refill their reserves, and the fact that oil companies underinvest to increase capacity. Despite the actual selling pressure, levels into $70 could be interesting dip buying opportunities for those looking for a sustainable recovery.   Likewise, commodities see a decent boost thanks to the Chinese recovery story. Copper futures – which are a barometer for global economy, are on a strong positive trend since the beginning of October, but they remain vulnerable to any deterioration in the global outlook. In this respect, the World Bank is expected to release its latest global economic prospect report this Thursday, and the projections may not be rosy. 

The Yen is in focus today as the BoJ reportedly investigates ultra-loose policy side effects. Inflation is today's other main focus - US numbers of course, but also Indian and Chinese CPI.   Source: shutterstock Macro outlook Global Markets: Wednesday saw a return of cautious optimism in markets, with US stocks opening higher and then making further gains into the close. That resulted in a 1.28% gain for the S&P 500 and a 1.76% gain for the NASDAQ. Chinese stocks were a bit more circumspect. The CSI 300 was almost flat on the day (-0.19%) while the Hang Seng index rose just less than half a per cent. All of this took place on a day with little macro content to bite into. Bond markets were steadier after their recent gyrations, though we wouldn’t bet on the calm lasting. 2Y US Treasury yields retreated by 2.9bp, while the 10Y yield fell 8bp to 3.53%. EURUSD continued to ease upwards in this environment. It is now at 1.0766. Other G-10 currencies were also mainly a little stronger. The AUD is now at 0.6915, the JPY has opened sharply lower this morning at 131.78 on the news that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will review the side effects of their ultra-loose policy. And Cable has pushed back to 1.2162. For the Asia FX group, Wednesday was a mostly positive day, led by the THB and IDR. There were small gains elsewhere, though the KRW slipped by 0.18% to 1245.99. G-7 Macro: December inflation data for the US will dominate markets later today. The consensus anticipates a small (-0.1pp) decline in the headline price level in December, which will reflect the further declines in retail gasoline prices over the month (amongst other things). That will take the headline inflation rate down from 7.1% to only 6.5%. Still high, but way off the peak of 9.1% back in June last year. Core rates are also expected to decline and should fall to 5.7% from 6.0%. If we get these outcomes or more, then we would anticipate risk assets rallying and the USD weakening. The bond reaction is less clear. The obvious move would be lower yields, but the interaction with equities could deliver something else. India: December inflation is released later tonight. Our own forecast is in line with that of the consensus, namely for inflation to remain at approximately 5.9%YoY, so just within the Reserve Bank’s inflation target range of 4%+/-2%, and below policy rates which are currently 6.25%. This outcome would stem from a more-than 0.2pp decline in the price level. But weakness in prices last year at this time will prevent this from lowering the inflation rate, at least for now. China: Inflation should continue to be mild in December given the high number of Covid cases after the sudden removal of most Covid measures. Similarly with PPI. Metal prices have increased in January so far, as the government is now allowing real estate developers to get funding from the market. Due to our expectation of a gradual pick up of activity after reopening, we don't expect there will be any inflation pressures in 1H23 for China. Read next: Czech Republic: CPI inflation hits 15.8%, noticeably less-than-expected| FXMAG.COM What to look out for: US and China inflation reports later in the week Japan trade balance (12 January) Australia trade balance (12 January) China CPI inflation (12 January) India CPI inflation (12 January) US CPI inflation and initial jobless claims (12 January) Fed’s Harker gives a speech (12 January) South Korea export price index and BoK decision (13 January) US University of Michigan sentiment (13 January) Fed’s Bullard gives speech (13 January) China trade balance (14 January) Read this article on THINK TagsEmerging Markets Asia Pacific Asia Markets Asia Economics Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

This year may turn out to be absolutely outstanding. To shed a light on a gloomy future of markets in 2023, we asked analysts to share their predictions. Today, we publish predictions of Santa Zvaigzne-Sproge, CFA, Head of Investment Advice Department at Conotoxia Ltd., related to S&P 500, Nasdaq, certain sectors and industries. For S&P 500 major support levels may be 3500, 3375, 3200, and even 3000 before starting to recover At the moment, we see numerous factors that have a negative impact on S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite – lowering money supply in the US and increasing interest rate environment to name a few. As the Fed has indicated that possibly there will not be interest rate reductions in 2023, it may suggest that the stock market in general and the two indices could continue losing value also in 2023 despite what seems to be a very optimistic beginning of the year. For S&P 500 major support levels may be 3500, 3375, 3200, and even 3000 before starting to recover. As Nasdaq Composite if compared to S&P 500 overweighs two sectors – technologies and consumer discretionary – that perform poorly during turbulent market conditions (as they have already in 2022), it may suggest that Nasdaq Composite may perform worse than the S&P 500 as long as the economic conditions don’t improve. Surely, investors’ eyes are closely monitoring each move by the Fed looking for a sign of a potential policy pivot. In case the Fed officials decide to abandon their hawkish stance sooner than expected, S&P500 and the overall stock market may experience a recovery accordingly. Will we see greater positive dynamics of price changes in the sector of small, medium, or large companies? Generally, the best-performing companies during turbulent market conditions are those with a healthy balance sheet (leverage ratios in particular) and stable income. These features are more common among large companies. Meanwhile, the small, more risky companies are generally the first ones to indicate the turnaround in the economic sentiment. As in 2022, the growth stocks were hit the hardest, they may have approached (or are close to) their normal valuation levels. And as stock prices look forward, growth stocks could be the winners as soon as the earnings prospects start to improve in the following year. Although, it would be too risky to assume that the turning point has already come. Read next: 2023 Predictions: Peter Garnry - Our target for S&P 500 is still around the 3,200 level sometime during the year leading to an overall drawdown of around 33% from the peak in early 2022 | FXMAG.COM Which sectors and industries are worth focusing on in 2023 and why? As long as investors keep looking for safer investments, commodities and companies whose earnings are highly dependent on commodity prices may provide such a safety net. Industrial metals may benefit from the reopening of the Chinese economy, defense industry and its materials may continue benefiting from the aggravation of geopolitical conflicts around the world. Lithium and other raw materials such as graphite used for batteries in electric vehicles and other products may continue benefiting from heightened current and expected demand combined with insufficient supply. Energy companies are known to pay strong dividends – a stream of income that may partially offset deteriorating portfolio value during a market downturn Although energy stocks have already earned impressive returns in 2022, the Western price cap and EU ban on seaborne imports of Russia’s crude oil may pose further profit opportunities to Western oil companies as long as the conflict situation is not resolved. It may be beneficial to wait for a drop in prices for these companies to add them to the portfolio at discounted prices. Furthermore, energy companies are known to pay strong dividends – a stream of income that may partially offset deteriorating portfolio value during a market downturn.

Emini S&P March - It's make or break for Emini S&P today as we test: The 1 year 38.2% Fibonacci resistance at 4000 The 5 month 61.8% Fibonacci resistance at 4012. The 1 year downward sloping trend line at 4020. In overbought conditions. Even on the short term charts, taking my Fibonacci levels from the December high, we have a 61.8% resistance at 4008.   Nasdaq March has recovered 50% of the December loss & closed above the 100 day moving average at 11565. We have a 3 month bear flag in the Emini Nasdaq as we test the red 200 week moving average resistance. Emini Dow Jones March Update daily by 06:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Emini S&P March held resistance at 4000/4020. Targets for shorts are 3950/40 & 3900/3890.   A sustained break above 4030 signals a bullish breakout & I have to take this as a medium term buy signal. A minimum 100 point jump would then be expected. Nasdaq March we wrote: break above 11570 can target 11650/700. A high for the day at 11638, so I was pretty close!! If we continue higher look for 11900/950. A minor negative candle yesterday but I must wait for a sell signal - no sign of a turn yet, although bulls need prices to hold above 11580/530 to remain in full control. A break below 11500 risks a slide to 11450/400, perhaps as far as 11250. Emini Dow Jones support at 34100/050 with a bounce to target 34450/500. Further gains can target 34700. Until we get a sell signal, we can buy at support at 34100/050. Below 34000 however risks a slide to support at 33870/840.

Dax 40 March is forming a sideways consolidation as volatility decreases, which is normal in both a bull & bear trend. We do not know how long this process will take but there is definitely no sell signal at this stage. FTSE 100 March holding a 3 day range from 7710 up to 7780. Remember when support is broken it usually acts as resistance & vice-versa. Update daily by 06:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Dax March held 18 ticks above support at 15000/14950 to hit my target & minor resistance at 15170/200. If we continue higher look for strong resistance at last week's high of 15300/330. Shorts need stops above 15380. A break higher is a buy signal. First support again at 15000/14950. A break lower targets 14870/850 then strong support at 14770/720. FTSE March reversed from first resistance at 7775/95 this week to my target of 7730/10 before a bounce from 7690. I think we are establishing a sideways trend but i will have to wait a but longer for reliable trend lines to trade. We should have strong resistance at 7745/65 today. Shorts need stops above 7785. A break higher is a buy signal targeting 7825 before a retest of 7850/60. Read next: McDonald's earnings: Currently, it is anticipated by several analysts that the EPS forecast for the quarter ending December 2022 is $2.44 | FXMAG.COM First support at 7695/75. Longs need stops below 7865.Emini S&P March is forming a new sideways range as we ignore the 3990/4010 area. I will have to wait a but longer to draw accurate tradeable trend lines but will do my best to identify support & resistance at this stage. I would forget running a swing trade & try to scalp the levels I provide. Nasdaq March we were offered 200 ticks on the short & another 200 ticks profit on the long at yesterday's support level. Emini Dow Jones March trades in an erratic sideways channel for 3 months. Unfortunately longs at first support at 33600/500 were stopped on the slide to 33347 before we shot higher to 33850. Update daily by 06:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Emini S&P March should have minor support at 4005/3995. If you try a long stop below 3985. A break lower can target 3970/60, perhaps as far as 3940/35. Longs at 4005/3995 can target 4030, perhaps as far as 4050. A break above 4060 can target 4075 & 4095. Nasdaq March shorts at 11950/12050 worked perfectly this week, hitting first support at 11730/680 for profit taking. A nice 200 ticks. The long also worked perfectly with a 300 tick bounce from 11604. Did you make 400 ticks on the long & the short yesterday? The bounce is quickly taking us back to my sell opportunity at 11950/12050 - shorts need stops above 12100. A break higher is a buy signal targeting 12460/480. Shorts again at 11950/12050 can target 11830/820, perhaps as far as first support at 11730/680 for profit taking today. Longs need stops below 11600. Emini Dow Jones should have support at 33500/400. Longs need stops below 33300. A break lower can target 33000. Minor resistance at 33900/34000. A break higher can target 34180/200 before a retest ppf 34430/490. It is becoming a scalpers market in stock indices - perhaps we will trade sideways in to the spring now. The news has been about as bad as it could get for weeks - the Fed has been trying to take the market down, but it remains firm. A mild recession and US rates at around 5.25% are priced in. I think we will have to wait for a change of perception before we can start a new trend for stocks. Actually I would not be surprised to see stocks trade sideways through the summer, as long as inflation continues to ease very slowly & rates rise very slowly, then pause, all as expected. There will be no reason for stocks to soar or collapse.

The NASDAQ was again the best-performing index during yesterday’s US trading session. The Asset was the only US index that did not decline to a lower price and ended the day significantly higher than other indices. The NASDAQ increased by 0.90% during the US session, the SNP500 by 0.50, and the Dow Jones by 0.30%. However, the SNP500 and DowJones did experience significant declines at some point. NASDAQ 4-Hour Chart on February 24th NASDAQ - The price trades below the 150-day Exponential Moving Average, and the stochastic oscillator is also crossed over downwards   The price of the NASDAQ is declining this morning by 0.32% and is still within a downward trend pattern. Despite yesterday's bullish price movement, the asset still forms lower lows and lower highs on the larger timeframes. The price trades below the 150-day Exponential Moving Average, and the stochastic oscillator is also crossed over downwards. Both indicators point towards further price pressure. Read next: According to NAGA analyst, Fed rate hike of more than 50bp can significantly pressure the price of Gold | FXMAG.COM The price will also experience higher volatility this afternoon during the release of the PCE Price Index. If the figure is lower than expected, the NASDAQ may positively react. However, a higher figure will certainly increase speculation of the Fed’s terminal rate increasing closer to 5.75-6.00%. You're reading Part III of the weekly comment by NAGA: Part I: Higher Volatility Expected for NASDAQ During PCE Price Index Release| FXMAG.COM Part II: According to NAGA analyst, Fed rate hike of more than 50bp can significantly pressure the price of Gold | FXMAG.COM Summary of all three parts: Indices reach a new monthly low except for the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ was the best-performing index of the day but is again declining this morning. The US saw its GDP figure grow at a slower pace than previously expected. The GDP figure read 2.7% instead of 2.9%. Traders turn their attention to this afternoon’s PCE Price Index. A higher PCE Price Index will further support stronger interest rate hikes Gold comes under pressure from a more expensive US Dollar, higher interest rates, and higher bond yields.

The major US indices are under pressure amid the ongoing reassessment of the Fed’s monetary policy outlook. The S&P500 and Nasdaq100 indices are testing key technical support again, returning to the crossroads they left over a month ago. Nasdaq100 futures fell to 11850 this morning, a more than one-month low, giving the bears back half of the gains from the lows in early January to the peak a month ago. More remarkably, the index has been testing support at the 200-day moving average since Wednesday evening and is below it at the time of writing. Today’s drop is below the 61.8% retracement level of the January rally from 10700 to 12700. This means that the market’s momentum today and tomorrow could be the index’s decisive momentum. This morning’s decline has stopped at a distance from the 50-day moving average, which often acts as a trend indicator. A consolidation below these two critical curves would signal that the market is ready to move lower. In that case, January’s rally would fit into a typical corrective pullback from the global highs of November 2021 to the lows of October 2022. A return to 10700 is a matter of “when”, not “if”. However, the outlook for the market is by no means a foregone conclusion. There is still a chance that the 50-day moving average will hold and the 200-day moving average, the so-called “golden cross”, will be broken in the first half of March. That will be a bullish signal for a wide range of players and doubly true if the price is above that cross. Read next: This week's Australian economic data suggest that the domestic economy may be slowing| FXMAG.COM Also bullish is the fact that the RSI on the daily chart is out of the overbought zone. In other words, the correction that was called for in early January is already complete. The S&P 500 Index slipped below its 50-day MA and under 4000 a week ago and is now testing its 200-day MA. Consolidation below 3900 could be the prologue to an extended, month-long decline with potential targets near 3800 (December support) or 3700 (200-week average). Alternatively (less likely), a return to growth from current levels would consolidate a bullish global reversal in the US equity market and take the S&P500 to 4200 before the end of March.

After starting the day lower yesterday, European markets gradually clawed their way back to finish in positive territory, even as EU core CPI inflation surged to a new record high, driving yields higher across the board. These inflationary concerns initially weighed on US equity markets after they opened, but the failure to push below technical support at the 200-day SMA on both the Nasdaq 100 and S&P500 prompted a rebound which resulted in a positive close, after comments from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic that indicated he would be in favour of a rate pause by the summer. This looks set to translate into a positive European open. Yesterday's rebound in equity markets came about despite a further increase in US yields with the US 10-year yield finishing well north of 4%, at 4.06%, while the 2-year yield closed at 4.89%. With US yields continuing to push higher, markets are increasingly pricing a higher Fed terminal rate. Since the start of February, this rate has risen sharply from 4.9% to be currently sitting at 5.5%, yet despite this equity markets have continued to hold up well. Much of this resilience may have something to do with how the US economy is faring, with the labour market continuing to maintain its recent resilience, as weekly jobless claims once again came in lower yesterday at 190k. Today equity markets will face yet another crucial test with the release of the latest ISM services report for February, which could act as a decent leading indicator for next week's delayed US employment report.   Read next: NAGA analyst on Eurozone inflation: This is likely to trigger a more restrictive monetary policy from the ECB for two reasons | FXMAG.COM While a lot of the attention in January was around that non-farm payrolls report, the January services ISM report was almost overlooked, but it could be argued that it was just as important in shaping the narrative of a resilient US economy. The ISM services index jumped from 49.6 in December to 55.2, while new orders also surged, to 60.4 from 45.2, their highest level since August. Prices paid remained steady at 67.8, as was employment at 50.0. The resilience of these numbers, along with bumper retail sales, showed the US economy surged in January, and with this jump in manufacturing prices paid earlier this week, there is increasing evidence that the recent declines in inflation might well have bottomed out.   The question now with today's ISM report was this services resilience sustained in February. A slowdown to 54.2 from 55.2 is expected, with the employment component expected to remain steady at 50. Before that we have the latest services PMI reports for Spain, Italy, France, Germany, and the UK, all of which are expected to show modest improvements on their January numbers as lower energy prices feed into improvements in sentiment across Europe. Spain is expected to improve to 53.7, Italy 52.3, France 52.8, Germany 51.3, and the UK to 53.3 from 48.7, belying the expectation that the UK economy has slipped into a Q1 slowdown. Yesterday Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill said that inflation risks in the UK economy continue to remain tilted to the upside, and supported the idea that rates are likely to have to continue to rise. His tone was in contrast to Governor Andrew Bailey the day before who would have markets believe that the probability of another rate hike in a couple of weeks' time should not be taken for granted.   EUR/USD – slipped back from just below the 1.0700 area yesterday but remains above the Monday bullish day reversal off support at the 1.0530 area. We need to push through the 50-day SMA at 1.0730 to open up 1.0820. While below 1.0730, the bias remains for a test of the January lows at 1.0480/85. GBP/USD – once again retested support at the lows this week at the 200-day SMA at 1.1920/30. A break of 1.1900 retargets the 1.1830 area. The 50-day SMA at 1.2150 remains key resistance, and which needs to break to retarget the 1.2300 area. EUR/GBP – failed again to move through trend line resistance at 0.8900 from the January peaks. Above 0.8900 targets the 0.8980 area. Support comes in at the 0.8830 area. USD/JPY – continues to try and push through the 200-day SMA at 136.90/00 but has thus far failed to do so. Support comes in at the 135.20 area. We also have interim support at 133.60. A break above 137.00 could see a move to 138.20.   FTSE100 is expected to open 24 points higher at 7,968 DAX is expected to open 50 points higher at 15,377 CAC40 is expected to open 20 points higher at 7,304

After a fairly low-key start to the day, European markets eventually finished the day lower yesterday, dragged lower by weakness in US markets after Fed chairman Jay Powell's semi-annual testimony to US lawmakers on Capitol Hill. Any prospect that we might see a dovish Powell yesterday was quickly dashed as the Federal Reserve chairman struck quite a different tone to the one he used at the last FOMC press conference. While markets focussed on his comments about disinflation at the beginning of February, there was only one mention of that word in his statement, in his remarks to US lawmakers yesterday, and that was to say there was little sign of it. His comments that the pace of rate hikes may need to be accelerated, and that the likely rate peak could well be higher than expected were not well received by markets, but given the strength of recent data, the change of tone shouldn't have been surprising. The Fed has always insisted it is data dependent and Powell's comments appear to reflect that, given the strength of recent data, which means as strong as yesterday's reaction was, with 2-year yields pushing above 5% for the first time since 2007, it could just as quickly reverse if this week's payrolls data or next week's CPI numbers disappoint. We do have other labour market indicators due out today with the February ADP payrolls report which is expected to see an improvement from 106k in January to 200k. We also have the latest job openings (JOLTS) data for January. Given the strength of the January payrolls report of 517k, you would expect to see a sharp drop in vacancies from December's 11m to about 10.6m.   Powell's comments did something else yesterday as markets started to price in the prospect of a 50bps rate hike in 2 weeks' time, despite stepping down the pace of rate hikes in February to 25bps. If the Fed were to step back up to 50bps in 2 weeks' time it would be tantamount to an admission of failure and that they made a mistake, and open up the central bank to accusations of being too reactive, and flip-flopping. Such a move would probably be unwise and open the central bank of not knowing what it is doing. Far better to follow through with another 25bps and raise their dot plots indicating that several more 25bps hikes are likely to follow.    While US markets finished sharply lower, both the S&P500 and Nasdaq 100 still remain above their 200-day SMA which acted as strong support last week. Read next: Turkey: For now, inflation could be said to have dropped because of the high base in 2022| FXMAG.COM With the European Central Bank also making loud hawkish noises and likely to hike by 50bps next week, the weakness in equity markets also translated into lower commodity prices on increasing concerns over the effect of what higher rates for longer might mean for global growth prospects. Staying on the central banks front we have the latest rate decision from the Bank of Canada later today, and where it is expected to keep rates on hold. At its last meeting in January, the Bank of Canada decided that it would take the decision to signal a pause in its rate hiking cycle after its latest rate rise of 25bps took the headline rate to 4.5%. The central bank did indicate that the pause was conditional on inflation coming down, however, the decision to signal a pause with hindsight, given the strength of recent data does come across as a little hasty, especially given Fed chair Jay Powell's hawkish tone yesterday. Headline CPI in Canada has fallen to 5.9%, but core prices still look sticky at 5%, and recent economic data has shown the economy looks resilient. Consumer spending has held up well in recent months, while January payrolls also saw a huge jump of 150k, with most of them being in full-time employment. The participation rate also surged to 65.7%, a sharp rise from 65.4%. The Bank of Canada may have to settle for delivering hawkish guidance along with a hold. As for today's European session, we look set to see a lower open on the back of yesterday's sharp US sell-off, with the focus in Europe on German retail sales for January and the final iteration of EU Q4 GDP which is expected to see be revised lower from 0.1% to 0%. EUR/USD – looks set to retest the previous lows at 1.0530 with the prospect we could see a retest of the 1.0480 area. The 1.0730 area remains a key resistance. GBP/USD – falling below the 200-day SMA has seen the pound fall to the 1.1820/30 area, opening up the prospect that we could slide towards 1.1640 on a break below the 1.1800 area. Resistance back at the 1.1980 area. EUR/GBP – broken through the trend line resistance at 0.8900 from the January peaks and could see a move towards the 0.8980 area. We need to push below support at the 0.8820/30 area to retarget the 0.8780 area. USD/JPY – has retested the 200-day SMA which is now at 137.20, with a break through the 137.30 opening up the 138.20 area. Support comes in at the 135.20 area. We also have interim support at 133.60.   FTSE100 is expected to open 19 points lower at 7,900 DAX is expected to open 35 points lower at 15,524 CAC40 is expected to open 17 points lower at 7,322

Global banks, including the US regional banks, rebounded sharply on Tuesday.   As such, the past days' banking stress has been rapidly contained after the US government put in place the necessary measures to restore confidence.  The return of confidence in the banking sector sent the US bond prices lower, and the yields higher. But the big jump in US yields was the countercoup of a historic slump and didn't prevent the S&P500 from recording a 1.65% advance on Tuesday. Nasdaq 100 rallied 2.30%.  A collision between a Russian jet and a US drone over the Black Sea – denied by Russia, and the US inflation report came to tame a part of the joy over the banking relief.   US futures hint at a flat open.  US inflation cements 25bp hike expectations  The US inflation data came in line with expectations on a yearly basis. The headline inflation fell from 6.4% to 6% as expected, and core inflation eased from 5.6% to 5.5%, as expected.   Yet, the uptick in core inflation on a monthly basis to 0.5% - a five-month high, and the stickiness of services inflation above the 7% mark, revived the Federal Reserve (Fed) hawks on fear that we may no longer see inflation trend lower in the coming months, if the Fed stopped tightening now and here.   Read next: Aluminium smelter shutdowns threaten Europe's green transition| FXMAG.COM Discomfort regarding the US inflation data, combined with the gently waning stress in banks, brought the expectation of a 25bp hike back on the table.   Note that, if we hadn't had the SVB debacle, that expectation would've easily been stuck around 50bp. And this is something that we could see reflected in the Fed's March dot plot.    Today, investors will keep an eye on US PPI data and the Empire Manufacturing index.  ECB will likely stick to 50bp hike  The EURUSD is drilling above its 50-DMA, 1.0730, in the run up to Thursday's European Central Bank (ECB) meeting.   Many wonder whether the ECB will soften its tone in the wake of tensions across bank stocks over the past week.   But the chances are that the ECB will maintain its plan to raise the rates by 50bp at tomorrow's policy meeting, and the divergence between a more dovish Fed due to the US banking stress, and a confidently hawkish ECB could help the euro recover against the greenback, and bring the 1.10 target back in sight.   Budget Day!  In the UK, the Chancellor of Exchequer will make a budget statement to the MPs in the House of Commons today.  At today's statement, there will likely be no tax cuts despite a terrible cost-of-living crisis, however the government will likely keep the £2500 per year limit on energy bills for three more months, instead of letting them run to £3000 from April.   The latter would be good news for inflation as inflation in Britain is worse than in Europe or in the US. Goldman Sachs predicts that if the government kept the limit at £2500, inflation in Britain would fall to 1.8% in the Q4, which is below the Bank of England's (BoE) 2% target.   On the investment side, Jeremy Hunt will likely announce measures to boost investment in the UK, including generous tax incentives to attract businesses back to the UK to make sure that growth in Britain catches up its European peers, now that Sunak's government seemed to have eased a part of the Brexit headache that prevented investors from full heartedly invest in the UK.   What's important for investors today is how the UK will boost growth, how it will finance it, and how the bond markets will react to the budget statement. There will probably not be an unexpected reaction, or a meltdown as was the case in September with Liz Truss' budget disaster. The confidence in Sunak's government is strong and the actual government's sense of budget discipline should ensure a smooth budget day.   On the currency front, Cable jumped above the 50-DMA as a result of a broadly weaker US dollar on the US banking stress, but a correction in the dollar's value will likely keep the topside limited at 1.22 and encourage a correction toward the 100-DMA, which stands a couple of pips below the 1.2050 mark.

NASDAQ - US Treasury Confirms no Guarantees. The NASDAQ saw the sharpest decline after the press conferences held by the Federal Reserve and US Treasury. At first, the price gained 1.25% reaching a new 7-month high. However, the price came under immense pressure due to specific comments within both press conferences. However, traders should note that the price is experiencing moderate bullish momentum during this morning’s futures market. Today, the price is increasing by 1.10% but is still 0.80% lower than yesterday’s price before the press conferences. Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, advised that additional tightening will be implemented if required As mentioned during yesterday’s market analysis, the stock market may be supported if the US treasury confirms a “blanket” for US depositors or some kind of insurance. A different indication can significantly pressure equities. Indeed the Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, confirmed there are no such discussions or plans to introduce any kind of additional guarantees. Simultaneously, the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, advised that additional tightening will be implemented if required. Bond yields have significantly declined, indicating that many traders do not believe the Federal Reserve will be able to justify further interest rate hikes. Inventors should note that the monetary policy is already within the “restrictive zone,” and the Fund Rate is at a 16-year high. So far, the stock market has come under pressure from no further assistance from the US treasury and the possibility of a further hike going forward. Investors fear that inflation will push the Fed to a further hike putting more strain on the banking sector, while the government provides no cushion for depositors. The NASDAQ, on the other hand, does have some support from other fundamental factors. The stock market is supported by the dovish hike and the possibility of cycling seeing an end if inflation continues declining. Analysts have also noted that fuel costs may decrease within the following inflation data. Investors were also quick to take advantage of the discounted price. In addition, investors will start planning for the next earning season, which is only a few weeks away. Read the first part of the update by NAGA: Treasury's press conference triggered a strong selloff in the stock market | FXMAG.COM The NASDAQ will be particularly interesting as investors will follow the AI drive and how the tech companies have performed after significant layoffs over the past quarter. Have the layoffs managed to improve expenditure and, more importantly, earnings? The Board of Meta has already confirmed a second round of employee cuts. According to the report, ten thousandemployees will be let go, and recruiting will be limited. The company also decreased its workforce by almost 13%. Mortgage Stanley is also the latest company to upgrade their signal from hold to buy. Chart, waterfall chart Description automatically generatedNASDAQ 1-Hour Chart on March 23rd Regarding technical analysis, the price action continues to point towards an upward price movement due to this morning’s correction. However, investors will be cautious that the price does not decline again when the resistance level is again reached. Investors should also note that trading clouds, regression channels, and theRSIindicate a potential overbought level. Read the third part of the update by NAGA: US dollar pressured by Euro and Swiss franc. EUR and CHF supported by data and a rate hike| FXMAG.COM

Recovery in bank stocks improved market sentiment on Monday.  In Germany, Deutsche Bank shares gained more than 6%.   In the US, First Citizens BancShares jumped more than 50% after agreement to absorb the remains of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). Meanwhile, the First Republic Bank recovered nearly 12% yesterday.   Calm, and rally in bank stocks yesterday stabilized the market mood. Gold tipped a toe below $1950 per ounce, while the US 2-year yield flirted with the 4% mark – on bet that if the bank crisis is over, we could go back to our lives and worrying about inflation, again.   The S&P500 closed 0.17% up, while the rate-sensitive Nasdaq fell 0.74%.   Of course, if the banking stress further eases, we should see sovereign yields recover a part of the recent retreat.   Yet, the pricing of recession is now in play, and should keep the upside limited at below the pre-SVB levels, when the Federal Reserve (Fed) was expected to hike the rates all the way up to around 5.5%.   This is no longer the expectation.  That's why the equity markets, which have been relatively resilient to the bank stress – partly due to higher liquidity injected in the market to deal with it, remain vulnerable as earnings estimates will more likely than not revised lower in the foreseeable future.  Bitcoin narrative shifts from safe-haven on bank stress to shaky on Binance stress  Bitcoin fell sharply to below $27K per coin on news that Binance and its CEO were sued by CFTC for allegedly failing to properly register. The firm is said to have allowed its clients to trade derivates since at least 2021, and these derivatives are not subject to American jurisdiction, and that Binance should've registered with the agency years ago, and that they continue to violate CFTC's rules.   The news doesn't call for the end of Binance, the world's biggest crypto exchange, but it could well cool appetite for safe haven flows to Bitcoin – which came along with the bank crisis, reminding crypto investors that cryptocurrency exchanges are not necessarily safer than a bank.   FX and energy  The US dollar index remains under the pressure of softer US yields as mounting recession worries keep the hawkish Fed expectations at bay.   The EURUSD has so far managed to rebound from a critical 50-DMA, near 1.0725, even though Mario Centeno, a member of the European Central Bank's (ECB) Governing Council said that the bank must consider recent financial-market stress when taking decisions on interest rates - an idea that Lagarde simply rejected at her latest press conference saying that the ECB has other tools in hand to deal with a potential stress concerning the banks and liquidity. The door for a further rise to $1.10 remains open for the euro bulls.  In energy, improved sentiment in banks and a legal dispute that halted around 400,000 barrels a day of oil exports from the Ceyhan port in Turkey pushed the barrel of US crude past the $70pb yesterday. The price of a barrel flirted with the $73 level.   Yet, the mounting recession odds and the resilient Russian supply, which partly absorbs the rising oil demand from China, are expected to keep the topside limited into the $75/77 area, where stand the 50 and the 100-DMA respectively.

Summary:  US equities are stuck in neutral, with the more yield-sensitive Nasdaq 100 index shying away from the 13,000 level once again, while the S&P 500 seems unable to move away from the 4,000 area. Most bank stocks, especially for larger banks, rallied yesterday and US treasury yields revived ahead of the March US Consumer Confidence survey today. JPY was sharply stronger overnight on a large life insurer indicating a domestic investment focus for bond holdings. What is our trading focus? US equities (US500.I and USNAS100.I): Crisis fears ease with energy and banks gaining S&P 500 futures held steady yesterday with positive sentiment coming from energy, transportation, and banking stocks indicating that the market is still relaxed about a potential incoming recession driven by tighter credit conditions. The index futures are trading around the 4,019 level this morning with the 50-day moving average at 4,029 and the 4,050 being the next big level to watch on the upside should momentum continue. We expect another quiet session with focus on the Conference Board Consumer Survey for March out at 14:00 GMT as the potential market moving event. Chinese equities (HK50.I) and (02846:xhkg): gains led by Tencent and financials Hang Seng IndexHong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbed 0.7% as of writing, led by Tencent (00700:xhkg) up nearly 4% and a rally in financials. HSBC (00005:xhkg) and Standard Chartered (02888:xhkg) climbed more than 1.5%. Leading instant noodle maker Tingyi (0322:xhg) reported a 31% Y/Y decline in net income, seeing its share price plummeting over 11% and added to investors’ concern about the much-anticipated consumption recovery.  CSI300 remains range-bounded and nearly flat. Petrochemicals were the top gainers while semiconductors and ecommerce stocks lagged. FX: JPY jumps as life insurer signals domestic investment focus, USD softens USDJPY dipped sharply overnight, perhaps in part on a large Japanese life insurer Dai-ichi Life Holdings incoming president indicating a domestic investment focus in very long Japanese Government Bonds for the company’s $260 billion in funds, saying that buying US treasuries was still too expensive due to the costs of hedging FX (as higher US rates transmit directly into the cost of the hedge, offsetting the yield gain). After USDJPY traded above 131.50 yesterday, the price action was taken as low as 130.50 overnight, dragging the USD down broadly, even as US treasury yields revived yesterday (often a JPY-negative). AUD traders will focus on the February CPI release tonight (although it is a single headline data point and not the full quarterly release that has the various core measures, etc.) Crude oil recovers half the March loss supported by supply risks and easing banking fears Crude oil retraced half the March losses on Monday with Brent finding resistance at $78.45 ahead of $79.35, the 21-DMA. WTI meanwhile popped above $72.70 with its 21-DMA offering some resistance at $73.50. Supported by optimism that the recent banking crisis is fading together with a legal dispute between Iraq, its semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan and Turkey halting around 400,000 barrels a day of seaborne exports from the Turkish port of Ceyhan. In a two-week period to March 21, speculators increased gross short positions in WTI and Brent by 106 million while cutting longs by 127 million barrels, and those decisions are now being challenged as prices recover. Gold continues to consolidate after failing above $2000 with focus on inflation Gold prices trades flat following a two-day correction after Treasury yields rose as banking sector concerns eased, however sustained dollar weakness provided an offset. The recent recovery in equities also trimmed safe-haven buying, and gold reversed lower to $1944/oz after making three failed attempts at $2000 last week. Support at $1933, the 38.2% retracement of the recent rally, may be tested if inflation data this week from US PCE to flash March CPI in Eurozone may bring the focus back on price pressure, but overall, the outlook for gold and silver remains supportive, buoyed by falling yields and safe-haven demand. Treasury yields rebounded yesterday on easing pressure on bank stocks. Fears of contagion across U.S. regional banks eased after First Citizen Bank acquired large parts of the failed Silicon Valley Bank in an auction. The odds priced in for a 25bp hike for the May FOMC increased to 50% and the implied terminal rate increased to 4.95%. The USD42 billion 2-year auction went relatively poorly, stopping at 2.8bps cheaper than the market level at the time of auction and a below-average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.44. The 2-year yield surged 23bps to 4% and the 10-year yield climbed 15bps to 3.53%. The 2-10 year curve bear flattened 7bps to -47bps. A 5-year Treasury auction is up later today. What is going on? ECB still worried about inflation; flash March CPI due this week ECB’s Schnabel noted that it is not easy to say how restrictive rates are, noting that there is no sign of weakening in the labour market, whilst also saying there are no real concerns about financial stability risks although the situation remains fragile. He had pushed to include guidance for a further rate hike at the last ECB meeting. Meanwhile, ECB's Nagel said QT should be accelerated from the summer and inflation is still too high. Focus will be on regional and Euro-wide inflation prints in Europe this week to see if inflation cools beyond the impact of energy on the headline. US regulators sue Binance and its CEO for illegally selling crypto derivatives to US retail investors The price of Bitcoin fell sharply on Monday after the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CTFC) sued Binance and its CEO Changpeng Zhao, alleging that the major crypto exchange illegally sold crypto derivatives, a leveraged bet on whether the price will rise or fall—for currencies including bitcoin, ethereum, litecoin, tether, and binance USD— to retail investors. The lawsuit accuses Binance employees of explicitly encouraging certain customers to use illegal VPNs for trades, while directing customers designated as important to set up shell companies in places like the British Virgin Islands and the Netherlands to avoid US trading restrictions. Carnival Q1 earnings top estimates Cruise operator Carnival reported first-quarter fiscal 2023 results, with earnings and revenues beating estimates. The company reported adjusted loss per share of $0.55, narrower than -$1.66 in the same period last year. Revenue jumped 173%, improving to 95% of 2019 levels due to strong bookings in the quarter for the North America and Australia and Europe segments. However, the outlook was conservative, and that saw the stock turn lower after over 18% gains YTD. The strong earnings performance of Carnival is reflective of a pickup in travel demand and bodes well for Saxo’s Travel and APAC Tourism equity theme baskets. Three EV companies report this week, including China’s giant BYD The EV sector has generated a lot of noise of late; from intensifying price wars among EV makers who are cutting prices, likely in part on a large drop in lithium prices, to EV purchase subsidies expiring in China last year, and new EV entrants in the market. As mentioned in our Week Ahead, this week’s earnings from China’s BYD’s, China’s Great Wall and America’s Canoo, as well as China’s lithium giant Genfeng, will set the scene for what investors can expect from the EV sector in 2023. Given BYD is the leading Chinese EV company, its Q4 results and outlook are the most heavily anticipated. Investors will get a gauge on how increased competition has affected sales, and if price drops have spurred increased sales. We will also get a gauge on how falling commodity prices (with lithium prices down 11%-47%), have potentially helped EV makers balance sheets. China’s BYD is expected to report annual net income of 17 billion yuan ($2.5 billion), a 450% jump from the prior year. What are we watching next? US March Consumer Confidence ahead – watching expectations/present situation spread The March Conference Board Consumer Confidence survey is out today, after the February headline of the survey dipped a few points to 102.90. That level is not remarkable relative to the high of 109.00 and low of 95.3 over the last 12 months, with the low posted in the context of wild spikes in gas prices last summer. However the expectations-present situation spread is very remarkable, as the February spread of –83.1 was the lowest since a brief episode back in early 2001 of a few months, as the Expectations component of the survey has deteriorated badly in recent months while the Present Situation component has held up well. A further deterioration in expectations would suggest the risk that consumers may tighten their belts Earnings to watch The memory and data storage chipmaker, Micron Technology, has outperformed the Nasdaq 100, and is up 21% this year, ahead of its quarterly results today scheduled for after the market close. Its outlook will be watched closely following the memory chipmaker’s cost-cutting efforts, from headcount reductions to executive compensation cuts, which take hold this quarter. That said, consensus expects further y/y declines in both EPS and revenue. Drug store giant, Walgreens Boots, reports before the open and could see restructuring and capital plans scrutinized, while investors could also react to the drugstore halting the sale of abortion-pills in several US states. Walgreens shares are down 14% this year. Lululemon is another key consumer stock reporting today after the close with analysts expecting revenue growth of 27% y/y and EBITDA of $836mn up from $654mn a year ago as the company continues to take market share and expanding into new categories such as shoes. Tuesday: BYD, Nongfu Spring, Micron Technology, Lululemon Athletica, Walgreens Boots Alliance Wednesday: Constellation Software, Cintas, Paychex Thursday: Kweichow Moutai, Great Wall Motor, H&M Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0845 – UK Bank of England’s Bailey to testify on Silicon Valley Bank 1230 – US Feb. Advance Goods Trade Balance 1300 – US S&P CoreLogic Home Price Index 1300 – Norway Norges Bank’s Governor Bache to speak 1400 – US Fed’s Barr (Voter) to testify before Senate panel 1400 – US Mar. Consumer Confidence 1700 – US Treasury to auction 5-year notes 2130 – API's Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report 0030 – Australia Feb. CPI Source: Global Market Quick Take: Europe – March 28, 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

As we come to the end of March and the first quarter of 2023, the last two weeks have taken some of the gloss off the FTSE100, after a strong January and February. The German DAX, on the other hand, has managed to reverse most of the losses in the aftermath of the collapse of Credit Suisse and looks set to finish the quarter over 10% higher.   Even US markets have undergone a bit of a crisis of confidence with concern about the effects of much higher rates giving way to concern about the health of the US banking system, which has seen a somewhat choppy quarter, with the Dow looking set to finish where it started the quarter. The Nasdaq 100 on the other hand has managed to defy gravity by rallying an impressive 18%. Putting to one side the performance of the Nasdaq 100, European markets have largely outperformed their US counterparts, as a sharp fall in energy prices and big falls in headline inflation has forced markets to reassess the outlook for the European economy. Nonetheless despite the sharp falls being seen in headline CPI, the stickiness of core prices is prompting concern amongst ECB policymakers, with yesterday's Spanish core CPI numbers a timely reminder, of how sticky that part of the equation is. At its last meeting, the ECB raised rates by another 50bps, in line with its previous guidance in January, although the timing was slightly unfortunate as it came in the teeth of a banking crisis that saw Swiss bank UBS absorb its rival Credit Suisse. Against such a backdrop the arguments for taking a more measured approach were quite high, especially since core prices saw a rise to a new record high back in February to 5.6%, however, the governing council held its nerve.   Read next: Has the eurozone economy started a quiet revival?| FXMAG.COM Headline inflation has been coming down, falling to 8.5% in February, and looks set to fall even more sharply in today's March flash numbers to 7.1%. In recent weeks the noises from various ECB policymakers have been becoming increasingly hawkish, however recent events have tempered that somewhat with the last meeting placing much greater emphasis on data dependence. The bigger question remains about what data the ECB is now concerned about, whether it is core CPI, which is set to edge even higher today to 5.7% and a new record high, or whether their focus has now shifted to financial stability. If we are to believe ECB President Christine Lagarde there isn't a trade-off between the two, however, history has taught us that is rarely true. The two are inextricably linked and no central bank will continue to hike rates when financial stability is at stake.   Before today's flash CPI from the EU, we get the final Q4 GDP numbers out of the UK, which a lot of people in government will be hoping don't get a downward revision this morning. When the numbers were last adjusted the UK economy managed to avoid a technical recession by the skin of its teeth, coming in at 0%, after a -0.2% contraction in Q3.    The rebound in Q4 was helped in some part by a strong rebound in consumer spending due to the Football World Cup in Qatar, and today's final adjustment will hope that this holds, with personal consumption expected to come in at 0.1%.   Recent retail updates have offered encouragement that consumers are still spending, albeit more cautiously, while the construction sector has also shown signs of some improvement. Business investment also saw a rebound in Q4 after a slowdown in Q3. Even with the optics of avoiding a technical recession, the outlook for the UK economy remains challenging with headline inflation still close to 10%, and consumer confidence still very fragile, but the rebound seen in retail sales seen in January and February offers hope that Q1 could see some growth after a difficult end to 2022.  As we bring down the curtain on Q3 we also have the latest US core PCE inflation numbers for February, and here the Federal Reserve will be hoping that there are signs that inflation is cooling here as well after the surprise spike to 4.7% in the January numbers, which prompted a sharp spike in US rate hike expectations just prior to the meltdown that we saw at the beginning of this month. The jump higher in PCE core deflator also happened to coincide with a surge in January personal spending, which rose 1.8%.   Since then, yields have collapsed on concerns over the stability of the banking system, with US 2-year yields set to see their biggest monthly fall since the financial crisis. While personal spending is expected to slow from the 1.8% gain seen in January to 0.3%, the bigger question is whether we'll see a similar slowdown in headline core PCE, or at the very least that we don't move higher.   EUR/USD – retested the highs last week at 1.0930 yesterday, which is the next barrier for a move towards 1.1000. Still feels rangebound with support at the 50-day SMA at 1.0730. a move through 1.0940 opens up the previous highs at the 1.1030 area.  GBP/USD – continues to edge higher and currently has support at the 1.2280 area. The next key resistance comes in at the recent peaks at 1.2445/50. Below 1.2280 targets the 1.2170 area. EUR/GBP – currently finding support at the 0.8770/80 area and the 100-day SMA. A break below here opens up the risk of a move towards strong trend line support at 0.8720, from the lows last August. On the upside, we have trend line resistance at the 0.8870/80 area. USD/JPY – currently finding resistance at the 133.00 area with the next main resistance at 133.20.  Support is now back at the 130.00 area. A move below 130.00 retargets the 129.30 area.    FTSE100 is expected to open 10 points higher at 7,630 DAX is expected to open 53 points higher at 15,575 CAC40 is expected to open 23 points higher at 7,286

Last week we heard from Chris Beauchamp from IG, who shared his view on the S&P 500 performance, which has been much worse than Nasdaq and tech stocks. This time we're pleased to share comment of Joseph Jeffries, market analyst at Eightcap.  Source: TradingView FXMAG.COM: Companies shown in the chart (TSLA, NVDA, AMZN, GOOG) have increased significantly more than SPX itself YTD. Taking it into consideration, why the gain of SPX amounts to subtle 5%? Naturally, SPX is about 500 companies from various branches, but isn't it certainly about the banking sector weakening the index? What companies have under performed recently weighing on the index performance? Joseph Jeffries (Eightcap): There was definitely a flood back to tech stocks after the long decline that was based on a few things like missed earnings and other issues in the industry. Meta started the revival months ago after it gave positive guidance, this set off a strong return to tech stocks. Combined with better-than-expected news banking issues started to emerge and this could have been a factor in why sellers started shifting liquidity from some sectors to other sectors.  During the runs when we saw the DOW and SPX start lagging the Nasdaq it was that shift in liquidity that was causing the difference Joseph Jeffries (Eightcap): During the runs when we saw the DOW and SPX start lagging the Nasdaq it was that shift in liquidity that was causing the difference. Traders could have been using tech stocks as a hedge or risk offset to shield risk from the banking issues. This could be a reason we saw the Nasdaq continue to run while the DOW and SPX struggled during that period.  Joseph Jeffries (Eightcap): As stated the reaction was seen as overdone and we can see now that the DOW and SPX have started to catch up with the gains seen on the Nasdaq.

The NASDAQ has declined over the past two days bringing the price back below previous significant levels. The index’s price action has slightly improved since the European Trading Session opened; however, investors will mainly monitor the price movement once the US market opens. Global equities rose slightly over the past hour after European traders entered the market. NASDAQ 1-Hour Chart on April 6th A lower level of order flow is also influencing the stock market as we edge closer to Catholic Easter. Therefore, price movement may be backed by something other than significant orders and traders. Technical analysis in the short term on the 30-minute and 15-minute timeframes points towards a decline as the price trades below the 100 Moving Averages and the Relative Strength Index. Economic data Recently the stock market has come under pressure from poor economic data. The latest ISM Services PMI drops to 51.2, the lowest in 3 months. The PMI data is lower than expected and lower than the previous month’s figures. The JOLTS Job Opening data and the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change were also significantly lower. Investors are now paying attention to tomorrow’s NFP, US Unemployment Rate, and the Average Hourly Earnings. The market predicts the NFP figure to decline from 511,000 in February and 311,000 in March to 235,000. Investors expect the Unemployment Rate to remain at a competitive 3.6%. If the NFP data is lower than expected and the Unemployment Rate is higher, then the US stock market may be further pressured by recession fears. This scenario also supports the price of safe haven assets such as Gold and the Yen. Read the first part: Judging from Koning's advices, ECB may hike the rate by 50bp and abandon previous rates targets | FXMAG.COM Summary: Global indices have recently declined, but price movement slightly improved as EU traders entered the market. The global index which managed to hold onto gains was the Dow Jones which climbed 0.24%, and the FTSE100, up 0.35%. The stock market comes under pressure from poor economic data and a higher risk of a recession. European Central Bank’s monetary policy committee members have locked horns over the Eurozone’s monetary policy. For most economists, the ECB will hike a further 0.50% before keeping the interest rate unchanged. Investors turn their attention to tomorrow’s US employment figures and if they will point towards a weakening employment sector.

US equities decline for a second consecutive day as the market prepares for the US employment data being released tomorrow afternoon. Both the SNP500 and the NASDAQ are experiencing downward price movements. The SNP500 has declined by 0.25% and the NASDAQ by just over 1%. The global index which managed to hold onto gains was the Dow Jones which climbed 0.24%, and the FTSE100, up 0.35%. European Indices also declined, with the DAX 0.54% lower and the French 40 declining to a weekly low. The main reason for the decline is poor economic data and lower investor confidence at current price levels. The past 24 hours have also been busy for global central banks, which have given traders clear indications of how interest rates will likely develop over the next quarter. Most signals from the Central Banks around the globe are not dovish, but neither indicates a hawkish policy. EUR/USD The price of the EUR/USD came under pressure as the US market opened, and the exchange rate formed a full price correction. As a result, the exchange rate gave up previous gains from earlier in the week. Nonetheless, the US Dollar remains relatively weak and has not yet obtained significant bullish signals. However, investors are contemplating whether this may change as the European Central Bank becomes less hawkish than in the previous two months. The European Central Bank’s monetary policy committee members have locked horns over the Eurozone’s monetary policy. The difficulty for the EU and the ECB is each State has different economic requirements and inflation levels. For example, the Bank of Greece governor is pushing to halt interest rate hikes as his country’s inflation rate has declined and is lower than in German. However, employment and economic growth remain poor and require monetary policy support. Therefore Mr. Stournaras is pushing for a halt to the cycle, as are the heads of Lithuania, Croatia, and France. At the same time, Germany continues to support interest rate hikes. The Euro has come under pressure from a potentially weaker interest rate cycle. Boris Vuscic has advised, “The biggest part of the cycle is behind us”. Macro Strategist, Mrs. Koning, has advised most economists to believe the ECB may hike a further 50 basis points and will likely abandon previous rate targets. The Federal Reserve, on the other hand, is the Federal Fund Rate will most likely increase a further 0.25% before the committee halts the cycle. This is also something that FOMC member, President Mester, has confirmed in her latest interview with Bloomberg. Mester also advises that any rate cuts in the coming months would be a mistake. EUR/USD 30-Minute Chart on April 6th Price action and technical indicators are currently pointing towards a bullish trend forming in the short term. The exchange rate is now at a critical level where the price has created a retracement, but traders will be looking to see if the instrument breaks to a lower low or a higher high. The Euro has gained momentum over the past hour as the European markets open. Read the second part: The US Non-farm payrolls expected to hit 235K, unemployment rate forecast to remain at 3.6%| FXMAG.COM

Focus today will be on China's GDP, industrial production and retail sales figures  Source: shutterstock Global Macro and Markets Global markets: Slight gains in US stocks yesterday were mainly concentrated at the end of the session as Banks again rose, offsetting falls in energy companies as crude oil prices slipped. The S&P500 and NASDAQ both rose about 0.3%. Chinese stocks again looked stronger than their US counterparts. The PBoC’s no-change decision on MLF rates yesterday was interpreted positively ahead of today’s activity data dump. The Hang Seng rose 1.68% and the CSI 300 rose 1.4%. US Treasury yields kept rising sharply yesterday.  Markets are now pricing in an 85% chance of a hike at the 4 May meeting. So the driver at the very front end of the yield curve probably only has a bit further to go. 2Y Treasury yields rose a further 9.5bp, while 10Y yields rose 8.8bp to 3.60%. 10Y Japanese Government bond yields also rose to 0.479%, though remain below the 0.5% YCC cap. The USD made further gains yesterday, and EURUSD has fallen further to 1.0925. The AUD was steady at around 0.67. Cable slid a little to 1.2373, as did the JPY, which rose to 134.44 vs the USD. Asian FX was weaker across the board yesterday in the face of a stronger USD. The PHP, KRW and IDR led the declines. USDPHP is now 55.85. G-7 macro: There wasn’t much on the G-7 calendar yesterday. The US Empire manufacturing survey came in stronger than expected. And the NAHB housing market index was also a point higher at 45, but was in line with expectations. Housing starts and building permits are today’s data offerings from the US. Elsewhere, UK labour data for March is due.  Germany’s ZEW survey is out, and there is also European trade data for March to consider. The next few days see a wall of Fed speakers ahead of the 4 May decision. Though today we have only one, Barkin, and he also spoke yesterday, saying that he needed more evidence that inflation was peaking - feeding expectations for one further hike in May. ECB President, Christine Lagarde’s speech yesterday was mainly a longer-term piece noting the risks to growth and inflation from a fragmented multipolar global economy. It didn’t have much relevance for the upcoming ECB decision in May, where economists are looking for a further 25bp hike, with another two 25bp hikes by July expected.   China: China will shortly release its GDP report for the first quarter and activity data for March. Our forecast for 1Q23 GDP is 3.8% YoY. We expect consumption to lead growth in 1Q23 and an increase in infrastructure investment by the government should offset the negative impact on industrial production from slowing external demand. We expect that any GDP growth rate under 3.8%YoY will prompt further government stimulus. Indonesia:  Bank Indonesia (BI) meets to discuss policy today.  All signs point to a pause from BI with inflation moderating and the currency stable.  The IDR is the best-performing currency in the region for April while core inflation is back to target, limiting any need for BI to surprise with a rate hike today.  We expect BI to remain on hold in the near term but relatively tame inflation and an appreciating currency could eventually open the door for rate cuts in the second half of the year.    Australia: The Minutes of the April Reserve Bank of Australia meeting are released at 0930 SGT/HKT today. Read next: Hungary’s bond issuance needs under control| FXMAG.COM What to look out for: China GDP and Bank Indonesia meeting China GDP, retail sales and industrial production (18 April) Bank Indonesia policy meeting (18 April) US building permits and housing starts (18 April) Japan industrial production (19 April) Malaysia trade balance (19 April) US mortgage applications (19 April) New Zealand CPI inflation (20 April) Japan trade balance (20 April) China loan prime rate (20 April) Malaysia CPI inflation (20 April) Taiwan trade balance (20 April) US initial jobless claims and existing home sales (20 April) Japan CPI inflation and Jibun PMI (21 April) South Korea early trade balance (21 April) Hong Kong CPI inflation (21 April) Read this article on THINK TagsEmerging Markets Asia Pacific Asia Markets Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

With European markets closed yesterday, US markets finished the first day of the month broadly unchanged, with the Nasdaq 100 posting its best monthly close in 12 months, while the S&P500 closed within touching distance of its highs this year. April saw a similarly positive performance from European markets with record highs for the CAC 40, while the DAX closed at 15-month highs. The FTSE100 has found the recovery from the March lows slightly more challenging, but it still managed to reverse almost all of its March losses. With JPMorgan Chase stepping in to lance the boil of First Republic Bank over the weekend, recent regional bank results from last week are raising confidence that this bout of banking uncertainty could well be in the rear-view mirror. If so, and it is a view held by JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, this would be extremely welcome to jittery markets at a time when yields are rising again and recent economic data suggests that central banks may well have to continue to raise rates. This inevitably shifts the attention of the market to the Federal Reserve rate meeting which concludes tomorrow, and where we could see another 25bps rate hike, although there is a chance, we might see a pause, followed by the European Central Bank on Thursday. Yesterday's manufacturing ISM numbers from the US showed that economic activity in this sector remained in contraction for the 9th month in a row, but that prices paid were on the rise again. This has been a theme in recent manufacturing PMI numbers in Europe as well, with economic activity in contraction, although input prices have been slowing. Today's manufacturing PMIs aren't expected to add to the sum of knowledge as to what the ECB might do later this week given that we are expecting to see Spain, Italy, France, and Germany PMIs all contract to the tune of 49.9, 49.5, 45.5 and 44 respectively. The number that will determine what happens on Thursday is the April EU flash CPI numbers which are set to be the swing factor as to whether we get a 25bps move, or a 50bps move by the ECB when it meets this week. We've had a raft of ECB officials say there remains a long way to go before the central bank would even start to consider a pause in its rate hiking cycle. A strong core CPI print today could prompt a continued aggressive approach, with expectations that we could stay at a record high of 5.7%. Headline CPI is expected to tick higher from 6.9% to 7%, however, there are mutterings from some that the ECB could be overplaying its hand given what is already happening with PPI, which has seen sharp falls from highs of 43.3% back in August last year and are now down at 13.2% on an annual basis and could fall back to 5.9% later this week. It's also important to note the month-on-month readings are now starting to come in negative. After finishing the month of April strongly, European markets look set to open the month of May slightly higher, after US markets finished a quiet session more or less unchanged. In Asia trading the RBA surprised markets this morning by unexpectedly raising rates by 25bps to 3.85%, despite recent sharp falls in the headline rate of inflation. The Australian central bank has come under heavy criticism in the past few weeks for its failure to spot that inflation had run ahead of expectations, and today's unexpected pivot could be because of that. The tone of the statement was also more hawkish, saying that more tightening could be required if inflation continues to remain above target, with the central bank saying that services inflation was worryingly sticky. Forex EUR/USD – has spent the last few days range trading between 1.0940 and the 1.1080 area, with a break above 1.1120 needed to signal further gains. Below 1.0940 retargets the 1.0870 level. GBP/USD – having hit an 11-month high last week at 1.2584 the pound has slipped back. Still in t a broad uptrend with support at the 1.2340 area, which needs to hold to keep the bias for a move towards 1.2630 intact or risk a move towards 1.2270.  EUR/GBP – last week's triple failure at the 0.8875 area, has seen the euro slide back, finding support at the 0.8760 area, with the potential for further declines towards the 200-day SMA at 0.8730. A break above the 0.8870 area suggests a retest the March peaks of 0.8925. USD/JPY – the break above the 135.20 area has seen the US dollar rally strongly, through the 200-day SMA with the next resistance at 138.00. We could extend to the 139.60 area which is a 50% retracement of the 151.95/127.22 down move. FTSE100 is expected to open 14 points higher at 7,884 DAX is expected to open 23 points higher at 15,945 CAC40 is expected to open unchanged at 7,491

On FXMAG.COM request, Andrey Goilov from RoboForex comments on Apple earnings. The company's revenue hit almost $95bn with iPhone sales increasing 4%. Here's what Andrey said about Apple 1Q23 earnings: Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) delivered mixed financial results for the first quarter of 2023 ended on 1 April. The company recorded revenue of 94.8 billion USD, which is 3% lower than the same period last year, and net income of 24.16 billion USD (1.52 USD per share), down 3.4% compared with the previous year. However, these figures beat the expectations of experts who had forecast revenue of 92.96 billion USD and EPS of 1.43 USD. iPhone remains the main growth driver, as it enjoys strong demand thanks to its 5G support and innovative design. A new record was set for iPhone revenue, which reached 51.3 billion USD in the first quarter. The company is also successfully developing its services business, which ensures a stable flow of income from subscriptions to various applications and platforms. This segment's revenue reached an all-time record of 20.9 billion USD. Meanwhile, Mac revenue saw the biggest decline, shrinking from 10.4 billion to 7.2 billion USD. There are several reasons for this. First, the company faced difficulties, struggling to compare with last year, when Mac was in strong demand due to the pandemic and a shift to remote work and learning. Secondly, the company faced macroeconomic issues such as shortages in components, rising shipping costs, and low demand in some regions. Third, the company was transitioning to Apple Silicon processors, which may have discouraged prospective customers who were awaiting the Mac line-up upgrade. Sales of iPad and other wearable devices and accessories also dropped by 13% and 0.6% respectively. Revenue also varied by region, with sales in the US falling from 40.89 to 37.8 billion USD, in China from 18.3 to 17.8 billion USD, and in Japan from 7.7 to 7.2 billion USD. Nevertheless, sales in Europe increased from 23.23 to 23.9 billion USD and from 7.0 to 8.1 billion USD in the rest of the world. Read next: McD earnings: McDonald's Corporation saw an increase in sales worldwide, including in the US, Europe, Australia, China, and Japan| FXMAG.COM In this context, Apple's plans for a dividend increase and stock buyback programme came as a surprise. The company's board of directors approved another 90 billion USD stock buyback and announced an increase in DPS from 0.23 to 0.24 USD. Dividends will be paid on 18 May. Apple's Chief Financial Officer Luca Maestri said the company's business performance improved compared to the December quarter and the operating cash flow of 28.6 billion USD was strong Apple's CEO Timothy Cook expressed satisfaction with the results and noted that its active device base had increased to an all-time high. Apple's Chief Financial Officer Luca Maestri said the company's business performance improved compared to the December quarter and the operating cash flow of 28.6 billion USD was strong. iPhone sales were the main driver of Apple's higher-than-expected income and profit, despite the challenging macroeconomic environment. Apple's services division also achieved record performance and demonstrated the strength of its ecosystem and customer loyalty. However, Apple's total sales volume and net profit declined for the second straight quarter, which indicates that the company is still facing challenges due to supply chain issues and lower demand for other products such as the Mac and iPad. Apple did not give an outlook for the next quarter, which could prove even more challenging due to parts shortages and competition. Overall, the company's report can be considered good, but not without concerns about a deterioration in future performance.    Visit RoboForex

Summary:  Remarks by House Speaker McCarthy and Senate Majority Leader Schumer signaling readiness for a bipartisan debt ceiling vote next week lifted market sentiment, driving stocks higher. The S&P 500 gained 0.9% to 4,198, a 2023 high, while the Nasdaq 100 surged 1.8% to 13,834, its best close since April 2022. Netflix soared 9.2%, NVIDIA surged 5%, and tech giants like Alphabet, Microsoft, and Apple hit new 52-week highs. Wal-Mart rose 1% on positive sales and outlook. Treasuries sold off due to manufacturing index surges and declining jobless claims. Alibaba's ADR fell 5% on sales missing estimates. Rising Treasury yields pushed USDJPY to November 2022 levels. What’s happening in markets? US equities (US500.I and USNAS100.I): Nasdaq 100 closed at the highest level since April 2022 Remarks from House Speaker McCarthy and Senate Majority Leader Schumer signaling that they were ready for a bi-partisan vote on a debt-ceiling as soon as next week lifted market sentiment, seeing stocks moving higher. The S&P500 gained 0.9% at 4198, the highest in 2023 and the Nasdaq 100 surged 1.8% to 13,834, finishing the session at the highest close since April 2022. Netflix (NFLX:xnas) soared 9.2% and NVIDIA (NVDA:xnas) surged 5%. Netflix, Nvidia, Alphabet (GOOGL:xnas), Microsoft (MSFT:xnas), and Apple (APPL:xnas) all closed at new 52-week highs. Wal Mart (WAL:xnys) gained 1% after reporting an increase in sales and providing an upbeat outlook for 2023. Treasuries (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas): Sell off on a stronger Philly Fed manufacturing Index, decline in jobless claims and hawkish Fed remarks Treasuries experienced a sell-off in response to unexpected surges in the Philly Fed manufacturing index and a decline of 22,000 in initial jobless claims. The sell-off was further intensified, particularly in the short to medium-term Treasuries, following comments by Dallas Fed President Logan, indicating that the Federal Reserve was not yet ready to pause its rate hikes. Consequently, the 2-year yield closed the day 10bps higher at 4.25%, while the 10-year yield increased by 8bps to 3.65%. SOFR interest rate futures also saw a sell-off, resulting in higher rates, as the probability of a rate hike in June rose to approximately 40%. Reflecting this trend, the December 2023 SOFR contract (SR3Z3) declined by 12bps, indicating higher rates, while the red months (2024 contracts) experienced a decline of 18-19bps, suggesting higher rates as well. The USD15 billion 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) auction garnered strong demand. Looking ahead, the Treasury Department announced upcoming auctions of USD 120 billion in total for 2-year, 5-year, and 7-year notes next week. Chinese equities (HK50.I & 02846:xhkg): range bound as sectors show mixed performance The Hang Seng Index has remained directionless, trading within a 4% range since late April. Thursday's trading session witnessed a notable upswing of 0.9% from the lower end of this narrow range, as strong showings in Chinese banks, insurance companies, oil and gas, auto dealers, semiconductors, and China internet names outweighed declines in China properties, pharmaceuticals, and biotech names. The market's range trading can be attributed to a downward revision of macroeconomic expectations, which coincided with positive earnings surprises. Auto dealer Zhongsheng (00881:xhkg) emerged as the top performer within the Hang Seng Index, experiencing a 4.2% rise. This was closely followed by China Life (02628:xhkg), Sinopec (00386:xhkg), Lenovo (00992:xhkg), and PetroChina (00857:xhkg), all of which advanced by over 3%. On the other hand, Longfor witnessed a 4% decline, making it the worst performer within the index. Tencent (00700:xhkg) slid by 0.9% as the China Internet giant surpassed total revenue expectations but fell short in advertising revenue and earnings. Furthermore, Alphamab Oncology experienced a significant tumble of 18% following the biotech company's disclosure that its lung cancer trial failed to meet the regulatory submission requirements. After Hong Kong market close, Alibaba (09988:xhkg) reported earnings (see below). The e-commerce giant’s ADR retreated more than 5%. In A-shares, the CSI300 marginally declined by 0.1%, with gains in computing, media, commodities, communication, and banks partially offsetting losses in new energy stocks, properties, beauty care, electric vehicles, and farming stocks. FX: USDJPY heading to 140? The Dollar was firmer again and it hit two-month highs on the back of stronger than expected US data, hawkish Fed speak, easing regional bank woes, and potential optimism around the debt ceiling. The steep rise in Treasury yields saw the USDJPY climb above 138.50 to the highest levels since November, and the key 140 level will now be on the radar. EURUSD also in close sight of 1.0745 support while GBPUSD took a brief look below 1.24. AUDUSD may test 0.66 again after the weak employment data yesterday has eroded the case for a June rate hike from the RBA. While NZDUSD reversed higher after testing 0.62 handle. Crude oil: increased rate hike pricing weighs Crude oil prices dipped lower again on Thursday as firm economic data and hawkish Fed commentaries increased the probability of a June rate hike and reduced the case for big rate cuts in H2, bringing short-term demand concerns back on the radar. Asian demand outlook provided some offset, with reports that refiners in South Korea and Taiwan have been buying millions of barrels of US crude, while India is considering refilling its strategic reserves. WTI prices were back at $72 after a dip to $71,50 earlier while Brent was below $76. Powell stakes the stage today and G7 meetings remain on watch into the weekend but bigger focus on OPEC meeting on June 3-4 which will be an in-person meeting and could signal further intent to stabilize oil markets.   What to consider? Alibaba's Q4 FY23 revenue below estimates while earnings surpasses expectations Alibaba (09988:xhkg) reported Q4 FY23 revenue of RMB208.2 billion, showing a modest 2% year-on-year growth, below estimates. However, the company's group adjusted EBITA impressively rose by 60% to RMB25.3 billion, surpassing expectations. Non-GAAP EPS came at RMB10.71, 19% above consensus estimate. While China Commerce and Cloud revenue fell short of projections, other segments within Alibaba performed well. International Commerce outperformed, with revenues growing at 29% Y/Y. Notably, the company announced a full spin-off of the Cloud Group, as well as plans to raise external capital for Alibaba International Digital Commerce. Additionally, Alibaba intends to explore initial public offerings for both Cainiao and Freshippo. Taobao-Tmall Group will continue to be fully owned by Alibaba, while each business group will have independent financing options and an employee stock ownership program (ESOP). Looking ahead, Alibaba management aims to sustain their market position by investing in content, enhancing the merchant ecosystem, and driving technological innovations. US jobless claims come in below estimates indicating labor market tightness continues US initial jobless claims came in beneath expectations, falling to 242k after a rise to 18-month highs of 262k in the previous week. The data was for the week that coincides with the BLS survey period for nonfarms and the reversal from last week’s print suggests that the labor market is not loosening as fast as previously thought and continues to complicate the outlook for the Fed in the second half of the year. Meanwhile, the Philly Fed manufacturing index spiked to -10.4 in May from -31.3 in April, above the expected -19.8 and countering the plunge seen in the Empire State mfg. survey earlier in the week. Fed speakers bring up June rate hike possibility to 35% There isn’t a clear chorus in the Fed commentaries any more, but some continue to sound the hawkish alarms. Lorie Logan (voter) particularly opened up the door to more hikes, suggesting data so far does not support justifying a pause in June. Jefferson (voter) also said inflation is too high, but he was cognizant of the lagged effects of monetary policy. James Bullard also said that he will keep an open mind going into the June meeting but is currently leaning towards a hike, however he is not a voting member this year. The Fed Funds futures is now pricing in a June rate hike at over 35% probability from less than 20% at the start of the week. Powell will be on the wires on Friday Japan’s April CPI matches estimates, core-core above 4% April inflation data out of Japan this morning remained hawkish with headline CPI higher at 3.5% (in-line with expectations) from 3.2% in March. Core CPI rose to 3.4% YoY from 3.1% while the core-core measure rose above the 4%-mark to fresh 40-year highs at 4.1% YoY in April from 3.8% previously, but a notch softer than the 4.2% expected. While this data set will continue to build pressure on the BOJ to tweak monetary policy, the focus on wage inflation has been emphasized repeatedly and only modest changes can be expected at best if market pressures return. Micron expected to invest in Japan Micron (MU) intends to make a multi-billion dollar investment in Japan, although a Japanese official said no decision had yet been made. Micron said it will bring EUV technology to Japan, advancing its next-generation memory manufacturing, and expects to invest up to JPY 500bln in 1-Gamma process technology over the next few years. As chip wars accelerate, Japan is stepping up to be an alternate destination for semiconductor firms to set up plants, with reports that Samsung is also discussing to establish an R&D unit there. Read next: Saxo Market Call podcast Listeners' Edition - answers to listeners survey, Google AI, copper and more| FXMAG.COM G7 Summit: Potential for clear geopolitical implications The heads of the G7 will convene for a summit held from May 19-21 in Hiroshima, Japan. The leaders are expected to deliberate on a range of topics, including the health of the global economy, risks of a recession and persistent inflation. Global food security and geopolitics will also be a key focus as the war in Ukraine rages on, along with the escalating tensions between US and China. There is considerable anticipation that the meeting could produce major geopolitical signals related to the nature of the nations’ relationship with China. Bloomberg reported that G7 finance heads will propose a new partnership on supply chains that will only allow participation if certain minimum standards are met on human rights and environmental policies. The statement will be scrutinized by China in case it feels targeted, after China last month called a G7 statement "full of arrogance, prejudice against China," and lodged complaints with this year's G7 host, Japan.     For a detailed look at what to watch in markets this week – read or watch our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast. Source: Global Market Quick Take: Asia – May 19, 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

The European stocks were up and the S&P500 hit a fresh high since summer, until Garret Graves, who was negotiating for the Republicans abruptly walked out, calling the White House 'unreasonable' and declaring that the discussions are on a pause.   Equities sold off and yields rose.   Happily, US President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy had a 'productive' call Sunday and agreed to resume talks today, to avoid what could be a very damaging US default.   The market mood is sweeter this Monday on news that the US politicians will at least resume talks after Friday's crisis. They will likely strike a last-minute deal to avoid a catastrophic outcome.   But Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reminds that the US will receive taxes by mid-June, but that she is not sure there will be enough money in the coffers to carry on until that date.   The US Treasury General Account, that US government now taps in to pay the bills, has no more than $116 bn.   The US 2-year spiked past 4.30% on Friday, even though Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday that rates may not have to rise as much as expected to curb inflation, as the bank stress is playing a nice role restricting credit conditions. Beyond Powell, the Fed members look undecided on whether to keep raising the rates or to pause. But none see the US rates being cut this year.   The US dollar is down for the second day after a more than 2.50% rebound since the beginning of May. The safe haven demand due to the debt ceiling saga is one of the reasons why the US dollar saw inflows over the past couple of weeks, and an eventually lower liquidity once the crisis is over could be supportive of the greenback. But the divergence between the Fed, which has certainly come to the end of its tightening cycle, and the European Central Bank (ECB), that still has a couple of rate hikes left on the pipeline, hint that the recent weakness in the EURUSD could see a bottom. From a technical standpoint, 1.0730, the minor 23.6% retracement on September to May rally, should give support to the actual bullish trend for a renewed rally above 1.10 and to 1.12.   Read next: Ipek Ozkardeskaya: A sudden jump in dollar-try is a possibility| FXMAG.COM In Japan, the selling pressure on the yen continues. Yet, the latest data from Japan revealed that the national CPI rose to 4.5% in April, up from 3.2% printed earlier, and defying analyst expectations of a fall to 2.5%. Core inflation rose from 3.1% to 3.4% as expected.   Cheap yen, the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) ultra-supportive policy, Japanese corporate reforms, and some help from Warren Buffett who has recently invested in Japanese stocks, helped the Nikkei to hit a 3-decade high this month. The inflows could continue as according to the latest BoFA survey, portfolio allocations to Japanese stocks fell to net 11% underweight.   The question is, what will happen when the BoJ will finally reverse its ultra-easy monetary policy to adopt to rising inflation and the hawkish global winds? The yen will certainly gain, and the equities will certainly give back gains. But no one knows how long the BoJ plans to remain absurdly dovish!  What we know however is that tensions between China and the West get worse by the day. The G7 meetings over the weekend revealed that the UK is willing to follow US in curbing business investments in China. China on the other hand hit back saying that Micron chips failed to pass a cybersecurity review and the government warned Chinese operators against buying the company's chips.   Nasdaq's Golden Dragon China index has clearly underperformed Nasdaq since the start of this year and there is no apparent improvement in appetite for Chinese stocks despite a supportive monetary policy and return to growth following the end of the Covid measures. Investors are scared that Xi Jinping's national security obsession could scrap investor friendly measures and leave investors on the back foot.  

The introduction of railways, cars or the internet to the general public marked a breakthrough in the economy. It now seems that the next such technology will not be cryptocurrencies, but artificial intelligence. However, the investments associated with it could lead to a speculative bubble. It is therefore worth taking a look at how revolutions in the financial markets have historically played out and how this relates to today's reality. History of the 20th century car boom In 1886, Carl Benz of Germany developed the first three-wheeled car powered by an internal combustion engine. At the same time, Gottlieb Daimler, Benz's competitor, also developed an internal combustion powered vehicle. The invention of the automobile marked the beginning of the rapid growth of the automotive industry. From 1900 to 1919, the number of motor vehicle companies grew from 100 to almost 2,000. The actual automotive boom, however, came in 1908, when Henry Ford introduced the mass production of the Model T. The revolution here was not only the mere existence of the car, but also the standardisation of belt production, which significantly reduced its costs through economies of scale. Source: https://transportgeography.org/contents/chapter1/the-setting-of-global-transportation-systems/ford-cost-production-1908-1924/ Throughout this time, competitors were trying to catch up with Ford's assembly line advances by producing quality cars, while smaller companies were losing ground.It was hard to identify a winner in this technological race. And despite a product that was super-modern for the time, the number of American car companies had fallen to 98 by 1929. And by the 1930s, the number had fallen even further - to 44. Nevertheless, the number of cars produced was growing rapidly. It turned out that more efficient use of mass production and adaptation to the prevailing economic conditions displaced competition and gave rise to the so-called Big Three. At the time, a potential investment in GM, the leader in this big three, would prove to be a tough test for investors as the stock market crashed in 1929, known as 'Black Friday'. Source: https://www.darrinqualman.com/global-automobile-production/ In August 1929, the average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio on the New York Stock Exchange was 23 In just two months, it fell below 15 as a result of the sharp collapse in share prices. Investing before the collapse in GM shares would have only come out at zero after more than 15 years. This example shows that investing in even very fast-growing and promising companies, when buying them relatively expensively, may not necessarily prove profitable in the long term. Source: https://www.open.ac.uk/ikd/sites/www.open.ac.uk.ikd/files/files/events/haslam-and-maielli-reframing-gm-Strategy%201909-to-1940-Final.pdf The DOT.COM bubble, or the story of the "new economy" A similar situation occurred quite recently, when companies in the internet sector were booming. The ensuing crisis led to the collapse of the Nasdaq index, which rose five times in five years, peaking at 5048.62 points on 10 March 2000. 4 October 2002. However, it fell to 1139.90 points, a depreciation of 76 per cent. By the end of 2001, most internet companies had gone bankrupt, and share prices even at established tech giants such as Cisco, Intel and Oracle had fallen by more than 80 per cent. It took 15 years for the Nasdaq index to regain its peak, which finally happened in 2015. Source: Tradingview The so-called dotcom bubble was the result of a combination of speculative fashion-based investments and an abundance of funding from equity investors for start-ups, and the inability of dotcom companies to make a profit. Investors, particularly venture capital funds, poured money into internet start-ups in the 1990s, hoping that they would one day become profitable, regardless of the price they paid for the investment. At that time, terms such as 'new economics' began to emerge, which assumed that the previous approach to valuing businesses on the basis of the profits they generated was 'outdated'. The value of a company began to be determined, among other things, by the number of hits on the company's websites. Meanwhile, as Charlie Munger aptly points out, "We spend a lot of energy creating a new way of thinking, forgetting that the old one is good enough". The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio rose to 175 in March 2000. This means that an investment in the average company would take 175 years to pay off. Currently, the value of this ratio is around 20. As a result, even if we had invested in winning technology companies in 2000, we would have had to wait more than a decade to make a profit. Read next: Watch prices of cereal grains, coffee and palm oil. According to long-term forecasts from meteorologists, the dry season this year will last longer than usual| FXMAG.COM „Keep your eyes on the price” It turns out that almost every time historically there has been a technology that has revolutionised reality, it has been over-invested in. Companies, aiming to be cutting-edge, spend huge amounts of money, regardless of the price they pay and the possibility of generating profits in the future. For this reason, we can increasingly hear from CEOs the phrase 'artificial intelligence' as a strategic expense for companies. It can also be expected that companies and projects based on this technology will start to emerge en masse. At this early stage, however, it seems impossible to pinpoint which ones will turn out to be the biggest winners. Sticking to the motto preached by Aswath Damodaran, one of New York University's top business valuation specialists: "Keep your eyes on the price", we can avoid mistakes. History shows that thinking that does not take price into account has always led to speculative bubbles that burst sooner or later. Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73.18% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Source: Investment in artificial intelligence: Is it the future or another case of disillusionment in the markets? (conotoxia.com)

European markets got off to a slow start to the week yesterday, finishing slightly lower, with the FTSE100 outperforming, with sentiment subdued ahead of the resumption of debt ceiling talks later in the day. US markets didn't fare much better with modest gains for the Nasdaq 100 which posted a new one year high, before slipping back, while the S&P500 finished the day unchanged, while markets in Asia slipped back as debt ceiling talks began again. In a similar pattern to last week, US yields also edged back towards their highs of last week on the back of hawkish comments from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who said he expected to see another 2 rate hikes this year, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari who gave a slightly more nuanced view, saying that it might be prudent to pause in June to evaluate progress, although it remained a close call. Kashkari did go on to add that rates might need to go to 6% if inflation is more persistent than expected. Yesterday's caution looks set to carry over into today's European open where we look set to see a flat open, as we look ahead to European flash PMIs, as well as the latest UK public sector borrowing numbers. In March, the government saw borrowing increase by £21.5bn, the second highest March figure since records began, as the curtain came down on a fiscal year that saw borrowing expand sharply due to rising interest rates, and the energy price cap. Nonetheless the picture could have been worse with total borrowing for 2023 coming in at £139.2bn, significantly below some of the more pessimistic expectations that were laid out at the end of last year. Nonetheless it was still £18.1bn higher than the previous year. As we look ahead to today's April numbers, the amount the government borrows on a monthly basis should start to come down now that the government is no longer contributing to consumers' monthly energy bills to the tune of £67 per month. Consensus forecasts are for borrowing to slow to £19.1bn in April.   One of the more notable trends we've seen in recent months has been an ongoing divergence between services sector activity and manufacturing activity. All across the board manufacturing PMI have got progressively weaker, or has struggled with prices also falling back, while employment measures have been stagnating. Compare that to services sector activity which has been improving and has continued to do so into Q2 as falling energy prices help to free up disposable income and thus prompt a bit of a consumer rebound. The bigger question comes about how long this trend can continue, as we head into Q2, and although pricing pressures have been slowing, prices have still been rising, notably when it comes to wages. In Germany services activity rose to a one year high in April, as did France, while manufacturing slipped further into contraction. Read next: Nikkei 225 hit its highest price since 1990. US Core PCE inflation numbers are expected to hit 4.3%| FXMAG.COM UK numbers exhibited similar traits, with strong services, and weak manufacturing. Will this continue in May, or are we at risk of a pullback when it comes to services when the data is released later this morning?   Expectations are for manufacturing activity to improve modestly across the board with France, Germany and UK readings forecast to come in at 46, 45 and 48 respectively. Services on the other hand are expected to slow modestly to 54, 55 and 55.3, with the extra bank holiday in May potentially acting as a drag on UK activity.   Forex EUR/USD – continues to struggle near to the 1.0840 area for the time being. We need to see a move through 1.0840 to target a return to the 1.0920 level. Still have support at the 1.0760 area, with a break below 1.0760 targeting a potential move towards 1.0610, with initial support at 1.0710. GBP/USD – still finding support just above the 1.2370/80 trend line support from the October lows last year. Resistance currently all the way back at 1.2540. Below 1.2360 opens the potential for a move back towards 1.2270.   EUR/GBP – finding resistance just below the 0.8740 area and the 200-day SMA, while holding above the May low at 0.8660 key support. A move below 0.8650 could see a move towards 0.8620. USD/JPY – finding support just above the 200-day SMA at 137.00. While above here the risk is for a move towards 139.60 which is a 50% retracement of the down move from the recent highs at 151.95 and lows at 127.20. A fall below 136.80 targets a return to 135.60. FTSE100 is expected to open 4 points higher at 7,775 DAX is expected to open unchanged at 16,224 CAC40 is expected to open 3 points lower at 7,475

Asia Morning Bites 12 June 2023 Indian inflation later will show further declines. Markets are reasonably upbeat ahead of the likely Fed pause decision later this week.   Global macro and markets Global markets: US Stocks continued to push higher on Friday, seemingly finding comfort in the prospect of a pause from the Fed later this week, though markets are split over whether this will be the last hike this cycle, or whether there will be one more. The S&P 500 is now at levels it has not seen since last September. The NASDAQ is up 26.68% YTD – not bad for an economy that seems poised to slip into recession later this year….   Chinese stocks also made gains on Friday. Both the Hang Seng index and CSI 300 rose between 0.4-0.5%. US Treasury yields also pushed higher. Yields on the 2Y Treasury rose 8.1bp to 4.596%, while those on 10Y Treasury bonds rose just 2.1bp to 3.739%. EURUSD is pretty steady at 1.0749, though the AUD has pushed back up to 0.6745. Sterling is also stronger, rising to 1.2579 though the JPY is a little softer at 139.35. Asian FX is a bit mixed, with gains from the THB, and IDR, but further weakness from the CNY, which is now 7.13 following a month and a half of losses. G-7 macro: It is a quiet start to the week, though this won’t last. US CPI for May is out tomorrow, and we should see decent falls in the headline rate and some smaller declines in core inflation ahead of the FOMC decision, which comes out at 02:00 SGT on 15 June. China: Aggregate Finance data are released at some point this week, along with the usual monthly data dump on economic activity and MLF rates, which are out on 15 June – and there is some growing market speculation of a small rate cut. Regarding the activity data, we will be watching the retail sales figure, in particular, to see how the main engine of the recovery is doing. We expect it to slow from April as the post-re-opening spending bounce is not sustainable at current levels.   India: CPI data for May will show inflation falling further into the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) target range. We expect inflation to drop from 4.7% to 4.3%YoY (consensus 4.37%). Keep an eye out for the core inflation figures, which will be key for determining when the RBI may feel it can start thinking about winding back some of its tightening. For the moment, on-hold seems the more likely response. But the RBI won’t ignore a chance to give growth a chance if offered and may signal a more neutral stance at the next meeting on 10 August.     What to look out for: Japan PPI inflation and machine tool orders (12 June) India CPI inflation (12 June) Australia Westpac consumer confidence and NAB business confidence (13 June) US CPI inflation and NFIB small business optimism (13 June) South Korea unemployment (14 June) India Wholesale prices (14 June) Philippines OF remittances (14 June) US PPI inflation and MBA mortgage applications (14 June) FOMC policy meeting (15 June) New Zealand GDP (15 June) Japan core machine orders (15 June) Australia unemployment (15 June) China industrial production and retail sales (15 June) Indonesia trade (15 June) India trade (15 June) Taiwan policy meeting (15 June) ECB policy meeting (15 June) US retail sales and initial jobless claims (15June) Singapore NODX (16 June) BoJ policy meeting (16 June) US University of Michigan sentiment (16 June)

Asia Morning Bites China activity data are due shortly - expectations are low. After the Fed yesterday, today we have the ECB, and more tightening is expected. Australian employment data and US retail sales complete the data excitement for the day.     Global Macro and Markets Global markets: Stocks had little trouble digesting the FOMC “skip", which did almost exactly what was expected of it – perhaps the dot plot 2 additional hikes was one more hike than had been expected. Anyway, the result was a virtually flat S&P 500 and a modest 0.39% gain from the NASDAQ. It certainly could have been worse. US Treasury yields were mixed. 2Y yields rose 2bp to 4.688%, while those on the 10Y UST actually dropped 2.7bp to 3.786%. EURUSD rose to 1.0842, and other G-10 currencies also made gains against the USD – with the notable exception of the JPY which remains at about 140. Have we reached a turning point for the USD and bond yields….? Other Asian FX was quite mixed. The KRW gave back some of its gains from the previous day. The THB and IDR were also softer, while the INR pushed stronger to 82.106. Other than that, not too much change.   G-7 macro: An almost playbook FOMC last night. A hawkish “skip” but a slightly higher-than-expected dot plot. James Knightley provides all the detail in this linked note. The ECB also meets today. That could be a somewhat different meeting with a hike fully expected, and few reasons for the ECB to be able to sound a more dovish note. Here is a link to a cheat sheet from our FX colleagues. We also get US retail sales, which are not expected to look very good (consensus looks for a -0.2%MoM headline result). China: A busy morning with the 1Y MLF likely also showing a 10bp cut, and then a little later (10:00 SGT) the data dump, which we feel could come in softer than the initial consensus numbers posted on newswires. There is a lot of speculation about further stimulus measures being announced, which might follow today’s data release, though far from certain.   Australia: The monthly data report today is as hard to call as usual. A small increase in overall employment is the consensus view. But the devil will be in the detail with the split between full-time and part-time jobs being very important, as well as the unemployment rate.   Japan: This morning’s data release is upbeat and supports our view that the economy is still recovering. Exports rose 0.6% year-on-year in May (2.6% in April, market consensus -1.2%). Exports to the U.S. and the EU rose 9.4% and 16.6% respectively, but this is partly due to the low base comparison last year. Exports to Asia and China continued to weaken, falling -8.1% and -3.4%, respectively. By export items, strong auto exports led the growth but declines in exports of chip-making machinery and semiconductor parts dragged down exports. Export growth has slowed down recently, but Japan’s performance is relatively good compared to other Asian countries, where exports have recorded a series of deep contractions. Also, core machinery orders, a forward-looking indicator for investment, rebounded 5.5% MoM (sa) in April, more than offsetting the decline in March (-3.9%), thus 3-month sequential comparison increased for three months in a row. Consequently, we think that the growth momentum is still alive in Japan. Regarding the recent speculation on the early election in Japan, we think it would have a limited impact on the BoJ’s policymaking because the election won’t have any immediate influence on inflation.   Indonesia: Indonesia reports trade figures today. We expect both exports and imports to stay in negative territory with the trade surplus set to narrow further to roughly $3bn. The progressive narrowing of the trade surplus over the past few months points to fading support for the IDR, which has faced some pressure of late. With exports not likely to replicate last year’s strong performance, we expect the trade surplus to normalize at these levels over the coming months. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s constitutional courts are set to rule on a petition to amend the country’s voting system today. The said petition would bring back closed ballot list system voting and inevitably delay next year’s election. Expect a revival of anxiety if the courts rule in favour of the change given its implications for the February 2024 election.     What to look out for: China activity data New Zealand GDP (15 June) Japan core machine orders (15 June) Australia unemployment (15 June) China industrial production and retail sales (15 June) Indonesia trade (15 June) India trade (15 June) Taiwan policy meeting (15 June) ECB policy meeting (15 June) US retail sales and initial jobless claims (15 June) Singapore NODX (16 June) BoJ policy meeting (16 June) US University of Michigan sentiment (16 June)

Outlook for bond yields and the AUD It has been a volatile 12 months for the Australian dollar, which dropped as low as 0.617 intraday against the US dollar in September 2022 and reached as high as 0.716 in February this year. Currently, the AUD is sitting in the upper half of this range. Further volatility is probable. The combination of a turn in global central bank rates, a pick-up in risk sentiment, and China’s reopening, all point to a stronger AUD in the medium term. Still, the long-awaited weakening of the USD is proving very elusive. Global risk sentiment, as proxied by the Nasdaq, which is up more than 25% year-to-date hardly needs any further encouragement and may be due a re-think if analysts’ earnings forecasts finally start to price in recession. And China’s reopening story may prove to be a case of the dog that didn’t bark. That makes the argument for further volatility seem a stronger one than our directional preference.     We feel on stronger ground on bond yields. Australian government Treasury yields track US Treasuries closely, so the broad direction is likely to be driven by those, with local factors (RBA policy, Australian inflation etc) of second-order importance though still useful for considering the direction of spreads. And right now, with US Treasury yields up at around 3.80%, the balance of risks for lower bond yields certainly feels better than it does for higher yields. The current spread of Australian government bond yields over US Treasuries is about 20bp, and this could widen as we think the US inflation story will improve quicker than that in Australia, resulting in a more rapid return to easing in the US.       Summary forecast table

The week kicks off on positive geopolitical vibes as the weekend talks between the US and China went well, and more senior level talks, including Xi Jinping are expected in the next few hours.  Despite this, Asian indices remained mostly sold on Monday, while US futures traded in the negative. It's certainly because last week was a bit confusing in terms of where the Federal Reserve (Fed) is headed to, after the dot plot showed two more possible rate hikes before the year ends, versus a final rate hike expected in July.   Activity on Fed funds futures gives more than 70% for a July hike, and more than 75% for a September hike on fear that inflation wouldn't slow as much as expected, and that the US jobs market will remain too robust to call the end of the US rate hikes. Fed Chair Powell will testify before the Senate this week and will certainly stick to the Fed's hawkish stance.      The S&P500 and Nasdaq both fell on Friday, but the S&P500 ended last week having gained 2.6%. It was the 5th straight week of gains for the S&P500, while Nasdaq closed the week 3.3% higher than where it had started. Both indices are now at the highest levels since last spring, and both are in overbought territory. Volatility continues fading, while any investors questions whether this is the calm before storm.   On good thing is that the Fed's reverse repo operations are trending lower, as a result of a flood of US bond issuance following the debt ceiling agreement and keep market liquidity sustained for equities.   But the US 2-year yield is headed toward the 5% mark – which is negative for equity valuations, whereas upside potential remains contained at the long end of the curve. And the widening spread means that bond investors continue pricing in recession in the foreseeable future, which is, in theory, negative for equity valuations as well.   Big Tech is responsible for around 80% of the gains in the S&P500 this year due to the AI-rally, but Russell 2000 gives signs of willingness of joining the rally as well. And because there is nothing much encouraging happening on the Fed end, the overall direction of the market, and market mood, will depend on the performance of the Big Tech. And they are now in the overbought market.       Soft dollar  The US dollar trades below its 50-DMA, as other central banks are as aggressive as the Fed – if not more! The Bundesbank President Nagel for example hinted that the ECB hikes could extend into autumn and may persist beyond September if core inflation doesn't slow persistently. The EURUSD is back on track for further gains and will likely continue pushing into the 1.10 psychological mark. Price pullbacks are interesting opportunities to strengthen long positions for a further rise toward the 1.12 mark.      Across the Channel, Cable consolidates above the 1.28 mark ahead of the next inflation update, due Wednesday and the next Bank of England (BoE) decision due Thursday. Inflation in Britain is expected to have eased from 8.7% to 8.4%, but the BoE – which has been telling us since a while that these numbers would get smashed by the H2, is now questioning their inflation forecast model – as a clear sign that even they don't believe that inflation will take the direction their model says it will. The BoE expectations remain comfortably hawkish, with another 125bp hike priced in before the end of this year. The latter could help push Cable toward the 1.30 mark.    In Switzerland, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is also preparing to hike the rates by 25bp this week to follow the European peers, while in Turkey, the central bank, with its new leadership, is expected to hike the one-week repo rate from 8.5% to 20% in an effort to normalize the monetary policy that has been put to coma since around two years. Normalization will be painful, both for the economy and the lira, and the dollar-TRY will be left to float free from time to time to test the strength of the negative pressure from the market. The USDTRY remains – is kept - steady around the 23 mark, while the upside is the only direction that the pair could take even despite a monstrous rate hike that will hit the fan this week.  

Asia Morning Bites Early Korean Trade data showed a surprise gain in June, and a separate release also shows pipeline price pressures diminishing. Jerome Powell starts his 2-day testimony to the US Congress.   Global Macro and Markets Global markets: US stocks returned from vacation to resume their decline, though didn’t fall much and firmed up a bit after opening lower. The NASDAQ fell just 0.16% and the S&P 500 lost 0.47% on the day. Equity futures remain negative though, so more declines beckon today. Chinese stocks also fell. The CSI 300 was also only slightly down but the Hang Seng index fell 1.54%. US Treasury yields declined slightly too. The yield on the 2Y note fell 2.9bp to 4.685%, while 10Y yields fell 4.1bp to 3.721%.   EURUSD is almost unchanged from this time yesterday at about 1.0922, after testing both higher and lower. The AUD is lower though, falling to 0.6788. GBP is also a bit weaker ahead of this week’s Bank of England rate hike. But the JPY has rallied a bit, moving to 141.308, down from a high of 142.251 yesterday. The PHP also made some gains yesterday, though most of the Asian pack made slight losses against the USD yesterday. The TWD and CNY were both down about 0.25-0.3%. USDCNY is now 7.1809. G-7 macro: US housing starts and permits jumped strongly in May. The annualized rate of starts jumped from 1340 thousand to 1631 thousand. And permits were also stronger, suggesting more gains in the pipeline.   There isn’t much else on the macro calendar today, apart from Jerome Powell who will testify in front of Congress today for the start of his 2-day grilling. So expect plenty of headlines from that, although we doubt he will stray too far from the June FOMC comments. There’s also a fairly packed ECB schedule of speakers today to provide a variety of views on how high terminal rates for the Eurozone will be, and just as importantly, when they will reach that point. South Korea: Early June exports (1-20 days) rebounded 5.3%YoY – the first gain in ten months. As expected, chip exports (-23.5%) and exports to China (-12.5%) were particularly weak while exports to the US rose firmly (18.4%), probably due to robust auto exports. Korea’s exports have bottomed out from the fourth quarter of last year, but the recovery has been pretty shallow. Imports dropped -11.2% during the period on the back of falling global commodity prices. We believe that the trade balance will return to a surplus by the end of the third quarter. Meanwhile, price pressures continue to diminish as producer price inflation decelerated to 0.6%YoY in May from 1.6% in April. PPI declined 0.3% MoM (nsa) after a 0.1% drop in April. This morning, the government announced that there would be no electricity fee hike for the third quarter. As we argued earlier, ahead of the national election in April next year, it is likely that electricity rates will be held steady. As global commodity prices have fallen sharply, this would also support the freezing of electricity fees.   We look for consumer price inflation to reach the 2%-3% range from June We forecast a 2.7% YoY rate for inflation in June (vs 3.3% in May) and for inflation to stay in this range until the end of this year. Pipeline prices suggest price declines continue due to falling global commodity prices and recent KRW appreciation. Import prices have already dropped for three months in a row and producer prices are expected to fall in YoY terms from June. Thus, we believe that the Bank of Korea will take a pause on hiking in 3Q24. Currently, we have marked a rate cut in 4Q23, but depending on the Fed’s rate cut timing, the BoK’s cut may come later, perhaps in the first quarter of next year. But, for now, we are keeping our current BoK forecast as it is.   What to look out for: Powell's testimony before US congress South Korea PPI (21 June) Australia Westpac leading index (21 June) US MBA mortgage applications (21 June) Fed’s Powell speaks (21 June) Fed’s Goolsbee speaks (21 June) Philippines BSP policy meeting (22 June) Indonesia BI policy meeting (22 June) US initial jobless claims (22 June) Fed’s Waller, Bowman and Mester speak (22 June) Japan CPI inflation and Jibun PMI (23 June) Singapore CPI inflation (23 June) Thailand trade balance (23 June) Fed’s Barkin and Bullard speak (23 June)

Risk takers are not out dancing on the Wall Street this week before the Federal Reserve (Fed) President Powell's semiannual congressional testimony scheduled for today and tomorrow. Equities are down, oil is down, sovereign bonds are up. And the rally in equities versus a selloff in sovereign bonds is a pattern that we have been seeing since the rebound following the mini banking crisis, and the correlation between stocks and sovereign bonds are reestablished, again, after last year's visit to the positive territory.   This – the return of negative equity-bond correlation - is what we expected to happen this year, but for the exact opposite reason. We were expecting the sovereign bonds to recover, as the US was supposed to be in recession by now, whereas the sovereign bonds were supposed to find buyers as a result of softening, and even reversing Fed policy. But none of it happened. Equities rallied, the Fed became more aggressive on tightening its monetary policy, and now the American housing market starts printing surprisingly positive data, with housing starts and building permits flashing strong figures for May, defying the rising mortgage rates in the US due to the rising Fed rates. I mean housing starts jumped more than 20% in May, but loans for residential real estate slumped. We no longer know what to do with this data, and that's a cause for concern per se... not understanding the data.     What we know and understand very well, however, is, a strong housing market and tight jobs market will encourage Fed to hike more, and encourage other central banks to do more, as well. But not everyone is as lucky as Powell, because in Britain, the skyrocketing mortgage rates are turning into a serious headache that no one can solve for now. The UK home-loan approvals have been dropping after a post-pandemic peak, the refinancing costs took a lift, and political dispute is gaining momentum with Liberal Democrats asking for a £3 billion mortgage protection package to help people keep their homes, and their mortgages, while Jeremy Hunt says there is no money in the coffers for such fiscal support. The 2-year gilt yield slid below 5% yesterday, as a result of a broad-based flight to safer sovereign bonds, but the relief will likely remain short-lived and the outlook for Gilt market will likely remain negative with further, and significant rate hikes seen on the BoE's horizon.   Released this morning, the British inflation was expected to ease from 8.7% to 8.4% but did not ease... while core inflation unexpectedly jumped past the 7% mark again. These numbers warn that inflationary pressures in the UK are not under control and call for further rate hikes which will further squeeze the British households, without a guarantee of easing inflation. We will see what the BoE will do and say tomorrow, but we know that they now have a few doubts regarding the reliability of their inflation model which was pointing at a steep fall in H2 this year – a scenario that is unlikely to happen.   Cable jumped past the 1.28 mark following the inflation data, then rapidly fell back to the pre-data levels. The short-term direction will depend on a broad US dollar appetite, yet the medium-term outlook for the pound-dollar remains positive on the back of more hawkish BoE expectations, compared to the Fed's, and an advance toward the 1.30 is well possible, especially if the dollar appetite remains soft.     In the US, profit taking and flight to safety before Powell's testimony sent the S&P500 and Nasdaq stocks lower yesterday. The S&P500 slipped below the 4400 mark, while Nasdaq 100 tipped a toe below the 15000 mark but closed above this level.    The US dollar index traded higher for the 3rd session and is now testing the 50-DMA to the upside, while gold pushed below the 100-DMA as rising US yields and stronger dollar weigh on appetite for non-interest-bearing gold.    Yet, any hawkishness from Powell's testimony will likely be tempered by counter-expectation that the Fed may be going too fast too far, and could stop hiking before materializing the two rate hikes they revealed last week in their dot plot. It's true that the surprising data on housing and jobs front don't give a respite to the Fed, but a part of it is still believed to be the post-pandemic effect. For housing for example, insufficient number of homes due to the rising WFH demand, the retreat in material costs that exploded during the pandemic and the fading supply chain pressures help to explain why the market is not responding to the skyrocketing mortgage rates.   But the risk is there – it's not even hidden, and the meltdowns tend to happen without telling.   I mean, no one could tell that the US regional banks would go bankrupt a week before they did! Anyway, the risks are there, but the resilient eco data hints that Jerome Powell will confidently remain hawkish, and that could lead to some further downside correction in US big stocks which are now in overbought market. 

Asia Morning Bites Japanese core inflation excluding food and energy edges higher in May - tees up the Bank of Japan for a July tweak to policy.   Global Macro and Markets Global markets:  After several days of decline, US stocks turned around on Thursday, and equity futures indicate that they may have a little further to go today. The S&P 500 rose 0.37%, while the NASDAQ rose 0.95%. China was out for Dragon Boat Day and will be out today too.  US Treasury yields went higher again. The Yield on both the 2Y note and the 10Y bond rose 7.6bp, taking 10Y yields to 3.795%. 10Y UK Gilt yields fell 3.8bp after the larger-than-expected Bank of England hike. EURUSD pushed above 1.10 yesterday, despite the rise in US yields, but it could not hold on to its gains and has retreated back to 1.0956 – not much changed from 24 hours ago.  G-10 currencies including the AUD and JPY lost ground to the USD, but GBP was steadier, helped by higher rates. Most Asian currencies weakened against the USD yesterday. The THB rose to 35.075, and the SGD rose to 1.3447. USDCNH has risen to 7.1957 and topped 7.20 overnight.   G-7 macro: There were further hawkish comments from Jerome Powell overnight, who said that the US may need one or two more rate hikes. Barkin also indicated that he was happy to see rates go higher. The main macro release from the US for the day was existing home sales. Lack of supply seems to be helping house prices to remain supported, as James Knightley writes here. Initial jobless claims held on to the recent highs at 264K, though continuing claims drifted a little lower. Not quite a smoking gun for the labour market, but it is becoming a little more interesting. The Bank of England’s 50bp hike took markets by surprise. James Smith and Chris Turner write about it here. James notes, “We’re tempted to say that today’s 50bp move won’t become a new trend, but two further 25bp hikes seem like the most likely route after today’s meeting”. Today is another quiet day for macro releases, with nothing of note from the US and only retail sales from the UK to look at.   Japan:  May inflation data came out slightly higher than expected. The headline inflation rate was 3.2% YoY in May (vs 3.5% in April, 3.2% market consensus) but core (3.2%) and "core-core" (4.3%) inflation beat market expectations. Inflation excluding food and energy even rose from 4.1% in April. The headline CPI index was unchanged month-on-month, but goods prices fell 0.1% MoM sa, while service prices rose 0.1%. Housing, transportation, telecommunications, and entertainment prices continued to rise, while utilities fell again. We think there are signs of inflationary pressure building up on the supply side, but it is certainly not strong enough for the BoJ to bring about immediate tightening.Looking ahead, the current energy subsidy program will end in September and some power companies will begin to raise electricity fees again. Thus, we see headline inflation staying above 2% for a considerable time. We expect June Tokyo inflation, released next week, will also pick up again.  We think that the BoJ will upgrade its inflation outlook in July and a yield curve control (YCC) tweak is still possible despite the dovish comments from several board members. They will probably justify their action by saying that a YCC tweak is not a tightening, but instead, that it is done to improve market functionality. Another reason that we think a July tweak is possible is that a shift in YCC may need to come as a surprise to avoid a large bond selloff. Singapore:  May inflation is set for release today.  The market consensus points to a slight softening in inflation with core and headline inflation slipping to 4.7%YoY and 5.4%YoY, respectively.  Continued robust domestic demand is preventing price pressures from dissipating quickly.  Despite the dip in inflation, the MAS will likely be on notice monitoring price developments with core inflation still well above target.  

Asia Morning Bites Markets are still digesting the more hawkish central bank backdrop and events in Russia over the weekend. More central bank flavour will come this week from the Sintra ECB event, where Powell, Lagarde, Bailey and Ueda will be speaking. US PCE data rounds off the week.   Global Macro and Markets Global markets: Equities finished in the red on Friday. There was not much upside. Bourses opened down and then stayed down for most of the session. The S&P 500 fell 0.77%, and the NASDAQ fell 1.01%. Digesting the Fed’s recent comments about further rate hikes, and also the similar noises coming from the ECB and the Bank of England's surprise 50bp hike, together with anxiety about the unfurling events in Russia would all have weighed on sentiment. US equity futures are looking a bit brighter this morning. China was still on holiday at the end of last week. US Treasury yields dropped last Friday. The 2Y US Treasury yield fell 5bp to 4.741%. 10Y UST yields fell 6bp to 3.735%. EURUSD moved lower on Friday, falling to 1.0845 intraday before recovering to just above 1.09. The AUD was also weaker against the USD, falling to 0.668. Sterling was steadier, but Cable also lost ground to 1.2728, and the JPY was also weaker, rising to 143.521. Friday was a poor day for Asian FX, with declines across the board except where markets were closed for public holidays. The KRW, SGD, THB and MYR all lost 0.5% or more.   G-7 macro: US PMI data showed some signs of weakness on Friday. The Manufacturing PMI slid further into contraction territory, dropping to 46.3 from 48.4, while the service sector PMI softened to 54.1 from 54.9, though remains in expansion mode. Germany’s Ifo survey is about all we have to get excited about today. The ECB’s Central Bank forum in Sintra kicks off today.  The end of the week will be more interesting, with another dose of PCE data from the US.   Singapore:  Industrial production data will be released later this afternoon.  The market consensus points to another month of contraction (-7.1%YoY) as production tracks the struggles on the trade front.  We can expect this trend to continue in the near term given the outlook for global trade.    Philippines: President Marcos appointed former Monetary Board Member Remolona to take over as Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor next week.  We are not expecting any major shifts in policy thinking from incumbent BSP Governor Medalla and we expect the BSP to match any moves by the Fed in the coming months.      What to look out for: Singapore industrial production and Powell's comments later in the week Singapore industrial production (26 June) Taiwan industrial production (26 June) Japan leading index (27 June) Hong Kong trade balance (27 June) US durable goods orders, new home sales and Conference Board consumer confidence (27 June) Australia CPI inflation (28 June) Philippines bank lending (28 June) US MBA mortgage applications and wholesale inventories (28 June) Fed’s Powell speaks (28 June) Japan retail sales (29 June) Australia retail sales (29 June) US initial jobless claims and pending home sales (29 June) Fed’s Powell and Bostic speak (29 June) South Korea industrial production (30 June) Japan labour market data (30 June) China PMI manufacturing (30 June) US personal spending and Univ of Michigan sentiment (30 June)

Stocks tumble on fears monetary tightening will trigger a recession Fed rate hike bets still only pricing in one last rate increase European bond yields plunge on downbeat global sentiment   US stocks are sliding as the global growth outlook continues to deteriorate following soft global PMI readings.  The risk of a sharper economic downturn is greater for Europe than it is for the US, so that could keep the dollar supported over the short-term.  This has been an ugly week for stocks and that is starting to unravel a lot of the mega-cap tech trades. The Nasdaq is getting pummeled as the AI trade is seeing significant profit taking.      Europe Brief: European stocks got rattled after France posted a surprise contraction with their Services PMI.  Almost all the European PMI readings disappointed and that is bursting the euro trade. Stubborn UK inflation is forcing the BOE to become a lot more aggressive with their rate hiking campaign, which will pile on significantly more pain on people with mortgages. UK Chancellor Hunt needed to do something for homeowners and this year-long break before repossessions is a step in the right direction. Over 2 million UK mortgage holders are going to see skyrocketing monthly mortgage bills and right now it seems it will steadily get worse.     Bostic The Fed’s Bostic delivered a dovish message today after favoring no more rate hikes for the rest of the year. Bostic is optimistic that the Fed will bring down inflation without tanking the job market.  Bostic is in the minority as other members will need to see a significant deterioration in the data.  Today, the service sector PMI declined not as much as expected and is still trading near pre-pandemic levels. The June preliminary Services PMI fell from 54.9 to 54.1, a tick higher that 54.0 consensus estimate. The economic resilience for the US will likely keep the majority of Fed officials with a hawkish stance.       

Asia Morning Bites CNY pushes up to 7.24. Next stop 7.30?   Global Macro and Markets Global markets:  Eclipsing other market moves on Monday, the sharp upwards shift of the CNY after China returned from public holidays last week is the obvious starting point for today’s reflection. The CNY had last traded at 7.18 on 21 June, but it gapped higher immediately on opening yesterday and kept climbing to finish at 7.24. The October 2022 peak of 7.30 is now firmly in focus, the main question for many will now be how quickly it gets there, and whether the PBoC tries to slow the ascent or add some two-way risk. So far, the PBoC seem to be pretty relaxed about the moves, which are sizeable, but orderly. The rest of Asia has been able to shrug off much of the CNY move. The TWD weakened 0.32% yesterday, moving slightly less than the CNH on the day. Other Asian FX saw small losses for the most part, but nothing major. Indeed, as we observed in a recent note, the correlations between CNY moves and other Asian FX seem to have fallen substantially recently. In G-10 currency space, there was little going on. EURUSD was almost unchanged at 1.0908. Other G-10 currencies were fairly muted yesterday. Equities didn’t deliver the increase that had been promised by futures this time yesterday, and US stocks suffered another decline. The S&P 500 fell 0.45% while the NASDAQ dropped 1.16%. Both are still up strongly year-to-date (12.74% and 27.41% respectively) so can absorb some further losses. Chinese stocks were also down. The CSI 300 fell 1.41% and the Hang Seng was down 0.51%. US Treasury yields were little changed across the curve. The 10Y yield is now 3.721%.   G-7 macro:  It was a very quiet day for macro on Monday. Germany’s Ifo survey delivered another set of weak numbers. Carsten Brzeski suggested that Germany’s recovery was over before it really began in a note yesterday. Today we get US durable goods orders data for May, together with US house price data for April from CoreLogic. The Durable goods numbers are exceptionally choppy and most of the relevant detail will lie buried in the core orders and shipments numbers. The house price data have been firming lately, which doesn’t make Fed forecasting any easier. Still, some good news is that Bloomberg reports rents falling according to a national survey by Realtor.com.  Actually, other industry data had already been giving that message, but it is helpful to have further corroboration.  Conference Board consumer confidence as well as some regional US activity surveys complete the data calendar for the day.      What to look out for: US durable goods and consumer confidence Japan leading index (27 June) Hong Kong trade balance (27 June) US durable goods orders, new home sales and Conference Board consumer confidence (27 June) Australia CPI inflation (28 June) Philippines bank lending (28 June) US MBA mortgage applications and wholesale inventories (28 June) Fed’s Powell speaks (28 June) Japan retail sales (29 June) Australia retail sales (29 June) US initial jobless claims and pending home sales (29 June) Fed’s Powell and Bostic speak (29 June) South Korea industrial production (30 June) Japan labour market data (30 June) China PMI manufacturing (30 June) US personal spending and Univ of Michigan sentiment (30 June)

Today's daily CNY fixing will be watched closely to see how much pushback the authorities will deliver after the recent CNY weakness. Industrial profit data for China are also on the calendar, as well as lower Australian May inflation numbers.     Global Macro and Markets Global markets: China’s daily CNY fixing was lower (stronger) yesterday, suggesting that the authorities felt that the pace of CNY depreciation had been a little too fast, or had gone on too long without any correction. The CNY traded in a much flatter range yesterday and is 7.2242 currently, well off the 7.24 peak on Monday. Today’s fix may hint whether the PBoC is more concerned about the level, or the rate of change in the currency. The USD lost some ground yesterday, and EURUSD traded up to 1.0977 before settling back to 1.0957. The AUD tried to go higher yesterday but hit a barrier at 0.6720 and has returned to 0.6682, little changed from a day ago. Cable made some modest gains, rising to 1.2747. But the JPY lost some further ground, drifting up to 143.90 amidst a lot of talk about intervention. For the most part, Asian FX gained against the USD yesterday, and the PHP led these gains, moving down to 55.32. The KRW also got back to 1300, and the SGD followed, dropping to 1.3496. A brighter session in US equities overnight may help Asian FX make further gains today. The S&P 500 rose 1.15% and the NASDAQ gained 1.65% making it one of the strongest sessions in the last few weeks. Semiconductor stocks did well, but so too did household items producers, auto manufacturers, steel producers and homebuilders after strong durable goods orders data and consumer confidence figures.  Chinese stocks also did well. The CSI 300 rose 0.94% and the Hang Seng index rose 1.88%. The stronger data and improved risk sentiment lifted US Treasury yields. 2Y yields rose 7.5bp to 4.755%, while the yield on 10Y Treasury bonds rose 4.3bp to 3.764%.   G-7 macro: Contrasting with the expectation for a decline, May durable goods orders actually rose 1.7%MoM, with core capital goods orders rising 0.7% and upwards revisions to April data showing that US industry is not as battered as might have been imagined after all the monetary tightening. Consumer confidence figures from the Conference Board were also considerably better than expected, and some of the regional manufacturing surveys also came in stronger than the previous month. US house price data also firmed. There is less on the calendar today, with only mortgage applications, inventory figures and advance trade balance numbers to peruse.   China: Industrial Profits are expected to weaken further in May after their 18.2%YoY decline in April (-20.6%YTD YoY%). Ongoing slowdowns in manufacturing together with falling factory gate prices will weigh on the May numbers.     Australia: May CPI inflation will fall from the 6.8%YoY April rate to only 6.2% (INGf, consensus 6.1%YoY). The decline mostly owes to strong month-on-month gains last year not being replicated this year. We anticipate the month-on-month increase came in at around 0.2%, which if it could be sustained, would take inflation back to the RBA’s target range. The lower May inflation rate will, we think, be enough to keep the RBA on hold in July after they hiked in June. But August may see a further, and hopefully, final rate hike as electricity tariff increases will keep inflation from falling much further, and could provide an excuse to hike due to slow progress.   What to look out for: Australia CPI inflation (28 June) Philippines bank lending (28 June) US MBA mortgage applications and wholesale inventories (28 June) Fed’s Powell speaks (28 June) Japan retail sales (29 June) Australia retail sales (29 June) US initial jobless claims and pendin