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Nvidia and other chipmakers have been hit hard by increasing pressure on consumer spending, including high inflation and rising interest rates, which has triggered a wave of industry-wide cost cuts and layoffs. They are also struggling with the reversal of the surge in demand for electronics caused by the pandemic, which has driven the shift to working and learning from home.

In recent months. HP Inc. and Dell Technologies Inc., two of the biggest PC makers, say their products, which disappeared from shelves at the start of the pandemic, are now on the shelf longer.

Rival Advanced Micro Devices Inc., which also makes central processing units that go into personal computers, warned of elevated stock levels.

Summary: MU Stock price down 2.86% in after market closing. Read next: US Dollar Softening Due To Recession Fears (EUR/USD), Is A 50bps Interest Rate Hike Due To Kick Off The ECB Interest Rate Hiking Cycle ? (EUR/GBP), AUD Recovering As China Reopens Their Economy Micron stock falls On Thursday the memory-chip maker Micron (MU) beat Wall Street's earnings target for its third fiscal quarter and matched their sales view. However it well missed the expectations regarding guidance for the current quarter and the MIU stock price fell during extended trading. For the current quarter, Microns adjusted forecasted earnings of $1.63 per share on sales of $7.2 billion which missed analysts expectations of $2.6 per share on $9.15 billion sales for their 4th quarter. MU Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, investors.com

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Currency market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while four markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for currency markets was the Mexican peso (12,890 contracts) and the British pound sterling (10,129 contracts) with the Japanese yen (5,884 contracts), Euro (5,009 contracts), Canadian dollar (4,992 contracts), New Zealand dollar (112 contracts) and Bitcoin (39 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Brazilian real (-7,317 contracts) and the Australian dollar (-2,374 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (-1,781 contracts) and the Swiss franc (-1,434 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. Highlighting the currency contracts this week was the cool off in bearish bets for both the British pound and the Japanese yen. British pound sterling speculator positions rose for the fifth straight week and this week’s improvement pushed the overall position to the least bearish standing of the past eleven weeks. The GBP speculative standing has been in a continual bearish position since the middle of February but has come down from a total of -80,372 contracts on May 24th to a total of -53,118 contracts this week after the past five week’s improvement (by 27,254 contracts). The GBPUSD exchange rate has remained in a downtrend despite the recent cool off in speculator sentiment and touched below the 1.20 exchange this week for the second time this month. Japanese yen speculator bets rose for the seventh straight week this week and reached the least bearish position of the past 27 weeks. Japanese yen bets have been sharply bearish for over a year were at -110,454 contracts as recently as May 10th. The past seven weeks have shaved 57,884 contracts off the bearish level and brought the current speculative position to a total of -52,570 contracts this week. The exchange rate for the USDJPY currency pair remains at the top of its range (yen weakness) and near 20-year highs around 135.00. In other currency contracts, the US Dollar Index speculator positions slid a bit this week after rising for six out of the previous seven weeks. The Dollar Index spec position had hit a new 5-year high last week at over +45,000 contracts and was at a 100 percent strength score (measured against past 3-years spec positioning). This week’s decline doesn’t dent the overall position much as the net position remains over +43,000 contracts for the third straight week. The Dollar Index futures price has remained strongly in an uptrend and reached a high over 105 this week before closing just below that figure at 104.91. Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bitcoin (100 percent), the US Dollar Index (97 percent) and the Brazilian real (87 percent) are currently near the top of their ranges and in bullish extreme levels. The Mexican peso at 21 percent is at the lowest strength level currently and followed by the Euro at 32 percent. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the Japanese yen (31 percent) is on the greatest move of the past six weeks. The Canadian dollar (27 percent), New Zealand dollar (21 percent) and the Swiss franc (20 percent) round out the top movers in the latest data. The Mexican peso at -18 percent leads the downtrending currencies followed by the Euro at -10 percent and the Brazilian real at -1 percent. Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-28-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 63,143 96 43,229 97 -46,558 2 3,329 53 EUR 671,472 70 -10,596 32 -19,812 70 30,408 25 GBP 228,736 57 -53,118 36 70,230 71 -17,112 20 JPY 213,767 64 -52,570 37 67,895 69 -15,325 22 CHF 40,123 21 -8,591 35 17,862 72 -9,271 26 CAD 142,584 25 9,097 50 -12,247 59 3,150 36 AUD 139,891 37 -42,980 45 47,163 54 -4,183 42 NZD 40,337 25 -5,311 62 8,551 44 -3,240 14 MXN 193,536 46 -13,980 21 9,107 77 4,873 64 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 60,107 54 37,028 87 -38,531 14 1,503 82 Bitcoin 13,707 78 1,085 100 -947 0 -138 10 US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 43,229 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,781 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,010 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 86.5 3.7 8.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.1 77.4 3.2 – Net Position: 43,229 -46,558 3,329 – Gross Longs: 54,646 2,340 5,371 – Gross Shorts: 11,417 48,898 2,042 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.8 to 1 0.0 to 1 2.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 97.0 1.9 52.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.7 -11.2 0.4 Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -10,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,009 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,605 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.2 56.6 12.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.8 59.6 8.0 – Net Position: -10,596 -19,812 30,408 – Gross Longs: 189,414 380,084 83,853 – Gross Shorts: 200,010 399,896 53,445 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.7 70.4 24.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.5 9.0 -1.3 British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -53,118 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 10,129 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,247 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.4 74.7 7.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.6 44.0 15.4 – Net Position: -53,118 70,230 -17,112 – Gross Longs: 35,184 170,967 18,055 – Gross Shorts: 88,302 100,737 35,167 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 35.7 71.2 20.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 18.8 -14.3 -4.2 Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -52,570 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,884 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,454 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.1 71.1 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.6 39.4 17.6 – Net Position: -52,570 67,895 -15,325 – Gross Longs: 36,462 152,071 22,379 – Gross Shorts: 89,032 84,176 37,704 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 36.5 68.8 22.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 30.6 -23.0 -5.2 Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,591 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,434 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,157 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.3 64.8 23.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.7 20.3 47.0 – Net Position: -8,591 17,862 -9,271 – Gross Longs: 4,523 25,994 9,588 – Gross Shorts: 13,114 8,132 18,859 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 3.2 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 34.7 72.0 26.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.3 -21.2 18.0 Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 9,097 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,992 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,105 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.2 45.9 20.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.8 54.5 18.5 – Net Position: 9,097 -12,247 3,150 – Gross Longs: 45,893 65,407 29,537 – Gross Shorts: 36,796 77,654 26,387 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.6 58.5 36.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 26.5 -20.7 2.5 Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -42,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,374 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,606 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.6 61.7 14.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.4 28.0 17.1 – Net Position: -42,980 47,163 -4,183 – Gross Longs: 28,887 86,347 19,791 – Gross Shorts: 71,867 39,184 23,974 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.0 54.1 42.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.5 -5.4 13.7 New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -5,311 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 112 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,423 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.1 64.9 5.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 42.2 43.7 13.6 – Net Position: -5,311 8,551 -3,240 – Gross Longs: 11,720 26,167 2,256 – Gross Shorts: 17,031 17,616 5,496 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 62.4 43.6 14.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.9 -19.8 4.4 Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -13,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,890 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,870 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 55.3 40.9 3.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 62.5 36.1 1.1 – Net Position: -13,980 9,107 4,873 – Gross Longs: 107,031 79,060 7,059 – Gross Shorts: 121,011 69,953 2,186 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1 3.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 21.4 76.6 63.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.0 17.2 3.6 Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 37,028 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,317 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,345 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 71.7 22.8 5.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 10.1 86.9 3.0 – Net Position: 37,028 -38,531 1,503 – Gross Longs: 43,088 13,691 3,307 – Gross Shorts: 6,060 52,222 1,804 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.1 to 1 0.3 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 86.8 13.7 82.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.0 0.9 1.9 Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,085 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 39 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,046 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 81.3 0.8 6.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 73.3 7.7 7.5 – Net Position: 1,085 -947 -138 – Gross Longs: 11,137 115 890 – Gross Shorts: 10,052 1,062 1,028 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 2.8 9.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.1 -4.2 -4.7 Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

The Swing Overview - Week 26 2022 After ashort-term upward correction, the indices resumed their bearish trend and closed the week in the red. Along with this risk-off sentiment, commodity currencies weakened, as did the British pound and the euro. Gold is losing ground as a means of inflation protection and has fallen back below the USD 1,800 per ounce. The US dollar, on the other hand, is still the strongest currency amid the looming recession. Macroeconomic data The number of new home sales in the US for May reached 696,000, beating expectations of 588,000. This is positive news. On the other hand, the negative news is the drop in consumer confidence, which reached 98.7 for May (103.2 the previous month). The drop in consumer confidence is expected to affect consumer spendings. It is evident that American consumers are reluctant to spend in times of rising prices and are accumulating savings for the future. This is of course contributing to the economic slowdown and the risk of a recession in the US is thus becoming stronger. This was confirmed by the GDP data, which fell for the third month in a row. The fall in GDP last month was 1.6%. GDP was therefore negative in 1Q 2022. If it is also negative in 2Q2022, it will be an official confirmation of the recession defined by two negative quarters in a row. Jerome Powell suggested this week that the risk of the economy being damaged by higher rates is less important than restoring price stability. This heightens fears that a slowdown in the US economy will take the whole world down with it. So in times when central banks are tackling inflation, this risk will set the tone for some time. This situation is positive for the US dollar, which is seen by investors as a safe haven asset in times of uncertainty. The dollar therefore remains close to this year's highs. Although the yield on 10-year US Treasuries has fallen below 3%, the overall trend in bond yields is still upwards. Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields and USD index on the daily chart The SP 500 Index The strengthening on the SP 500 Index that we have seen in the week of June 20 was really just a short-term correction to the overall downtrend, as we have previously suggested. Last week saw another sell-off and so the overall downtrend on the index continues. Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is in the range of 3,810 - 3,820. The next resistance is 3,930 - 3,950. A support is 3 640 - 3 670. German DAX index The German Ifo Business Climate Index which measures the expectations of manufacturers, builders and sellers for the next 6 months continued to show a value of 92.3, which is worse than the previous month when the index value was 93.0. The fall in the reading suggests some pessimism, accentuated by current market uncertainties, which include the impact of the war in Ukraine and high inflation, which in Germany for the month of June was 7.6% year-on-year. However, inflation fell by 0.1% month-on-month. The labour market has also indicated problems. The number of unemployed in Germany rose by 133 000, while the market had expected a fall of 6 000. This was very negative news, which triggered a strong sell-off on the Dax on Thursday. On the other hand, retail sales were positive, rising by 0.6% in May, while a 5.4% decline was recorded in April. Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The DAX has broken support according to the H4 chart at 12,850, which has now become the new resistance, which is in the 12,820 - 12,850 range. The next resistance according to the H4 chart is then at 13,280 - 13,375. The strong support according to the daily chart is 12,443 - 12,620, which price is currently approaching. Eurozone inflation at a new record Eurozone consumer inflation reached another record high in June, rising by 8.6% year-on-year. This is higher than analysts' expectations, who predicted a rise of 8.4%. Inflation is therefore continuing to rise, so the expectation that the ECB could raise rates by more than 0.25% in July is on target and this could support the euro's growth. On the other hand, there is a strong dollar which could continue to slow down bulls on the euro. Figure 4: EUR/USD on H4 and daily chart The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is at 1.048 - 1.0500. The next resistance is at 1.0600 - 1.0610. Support is at 1.0360 - 1.0380. Gold broke the $1,800 price tag The development in gold has once again confirmed that investors prefer US bonds instead of gold, which, in addition to being considered a "safe haven" along with the US dollar, also brings a small but still certain return. The strong dollar is not good news for gold, which has fallen below the key support of USD 1,800 per ounce. Figure 5: Gold on H4 and daily chart The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is therefore in the zone of USD 1,800 - 1,807 per ounce. Below this resistance we have several supports. The closest one is 1 780 - 1 787 USD per ounce.

Hi, traders; welcome to Wednesday’s update. With oil tumbling and the USD jumping, we can only think of one pair that benefits from those two moves. The USDCAD is highly driven on both fronts, and the CAD is a commodity currency that generally tracks oil’s fortunes. The USD, well yeh enough said. Last night we saw key moves on oil and the USD. Oil shed up to 10% and briefly traded below the $100 level. The USD shot higher, the index trading above 106.50. Looking at the daily USDCAD chart below, we can see that price continues to trade in a new fast trend after buyers took control on the 8th of June. Since then, we have seen one reaction that set up demand and an HL late in June. Buying has continued into July, with traders retesting key resistance and supply areas that have stood since May. The recent resistance and supply lines up with a longer-term level of supply /resistance that runs back to November 2020. This is our line in the sand that buyers must break to continue the current trend. If we see a break above these levels, it could be ga,e on with 1.31 and 1.32 or higher a possibility. Fail, and we would look for a new move to possibly retest the 1.2850 area. It’s really up to buyers and mainly USD momentum to continue to drive the current buyer move. The Fed minutes are due out today at 04:00 am AEST, and they could play a role in the current short-term USD pulse. USDCAD D1 Chart The post USDCAD set to stall at or break key resistance? appeared first on Eightcap.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Weekly Speculator Changes COT currency market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as just three out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts. Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian dollar with a weekly gain of 6,021 contracts while the New Zealand dollar (1,773 contracts) and the Swiss franc (1,411 contracts) also had positive weeks. The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Mexican peso (-8,820 contracts) and the Euro (-8,392 contracts) with the Brazilian real (-6,128 contracts), Japanese yen (-5,553 contracts), British pound sterling (-2,881 contracts), US Dollar Index (-897 contracts), Canadian dollar (-788 contracts) and Bitcoin(-591 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. Highlighting this week’s COT currency data is the continued decline in the Euro speculator positions which fell for a second straight week and for the fifth time in the past six weeks. Euro bets have now dropped by -77,516 contracts in just the past six weeks, going from +52,272 contracts on May 31st to -25,244 contracts this week. This weakness put the current speculator position at the lowest level since March of 2020 but it is nowhere near the extremely bearish levels of years past (for example: -114,021 contracts in 2020 or -182,845 contracts in 2015). There seems to be a lot of room for the speculator position to fall further. Will this bring the Euro price even lower? That is a fascinating question as the largest currency news story of the past few weeks has been the EURUSD reaching parity for the first time in over twenty years. The EURUSD actually hit 0.9952 on Thursday before closing the week near the 1.0080 exchange rate and with the US Federal Reserve poised to raise interest rates further soon – the EURUSD will likely remain under pressure but how low can it go? The other side of the COT data this week is the continued strength of the US Dollar Index speculator positions. The USD Index speculator bets fell this week for a third straight week but remain very much near their recent highs. Speculative positions recently had three straight weeks of over at least +40,000 net contracts for the first time since 2019 while the speculator position also topped +45,000 contracts (on June 21st) for the first time since March 21st of 2017, a span of 274 weeks. The strong sentiment for the dollar has helped boost the US Dollar Index price to a high over 109.00 this week, reaching the highest level since 2002. With the two largest components of the US Dollar Index, the Euro at 57.6 percent of the index and the Japanese yen at 13.6 percent, so weak at the moment, the DXY might challenge the 110 exchange rate in the weeks to come. Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Jul-12-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 59,565 88 38,354 89 -40,895 11 2,541 44 EUR 682,031 75 -25,244 27 5,760 78 19,484 7 GBP 231,945 59 -59,089 31 75,405 74 -16,316 22 JPY 223,539 71 -59,998 32 75,067 72 -15,069 23 CHF 41,255 23 -8,724 34 19,882 75 -11,158 20 CAD 139,297 23 3,505 43 -4,653 65 1,148 32 AUD 158,263 51 -41,600 46 52,490 58 -10,890 26 NZD 45,837 36 -5,283 62 8,979 44 -3,696 9 MXN 195,611 47 -23,238 17 20,317 81 2,921 55 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 41,034 28 10,205 60 -10,868 41 663 73 Bitcoin 13,505 77 -171 77 -201 0 372 21 Strength Scores Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Dollar Index (88.9 percent) leads the currency markets near the top of its 3-year range and in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Bitcoin (77.2 percent) comes in as the next highest in the currency markets strength scores with the New Zealand Dollar (62.4 percent) and the Brazilian Real (60.4 percent) rounding out the only other markets above 50 percent or above their midpoint for the past 3 years . On the downside, the Mexican Peso (17.4 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and the only one in a bearish extreme level. The EuroFX (27.3 percent) continues to fall and is the second lowest strength score this week. Strength Statistics: US Dollar Index (88.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (90.4 percent) EuroFX (27.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (29.8 percent) British Pound Sterling (31.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (33.5 percent) Japanese Yen (31.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (35.3 percent) Swiss Franc (34.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (30.8 percent) Canadian Dollar (43.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (44.2 percent) Australian Dollar (46.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (40.7 percent) New Zealand Dollar (62.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (59.4 percent) Mexican Peso (17.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (21.2 percent) Brazil Real (60.4 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (66.4 percent) Russian Ruble (31.2 percent) vs Russian Ruble previous week (31.9 percent) Bitcoin (77.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (87.9 percent) Strength Trends Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Swiss Franc (29.7 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (22.6 percent) and the Japanese Yen (21.2 percent) round out the next highest movers in the latest trends data as the CHF, NZD and the JPY have seen improving sentiment from speculators. The Brazilian Real (-34.5 percent) leads the downside trend scores this week while the next markets with lower trend scores were the Mexican Peso (-25.0 percent) followed by the Euro (-23.8 percent). Strength Trend Statistics: US Dollar Index (1.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (2.0 percent) EuroFX (-23.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-17.1 percent) British Pound Sterling (10.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (17.4 percent) Japanese Yen (21.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (27.7 percent) Swiss Franc (29.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (24.2 percent) Canadian Dollar (11.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (19.1 percent) Australian Dollar (6.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-2.0 percent) New Zealand Dollar (22.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (20.6 percent) Mexican Peso (-25.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-18.9 percent) Brazil Real (-34.5 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (-22.0 percent) Russian Ruble (-15.6 percent) vs Russian Ruble previous week (9.1 percent) Bitcoin (-10.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-7.8 percent) Individual Markets: US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 38,354 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -897 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,251 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 85.8 3.9 9.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.4 72.5 4.7 – Net Position: 38,354 -40,895 2,541 – Gross Longs: 51,109 2,305 5,365 – Gross Shorts: 12,755 43,200 2,824 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.0 to 1 0.1 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.9 10.9 44.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.4 0.7 -13.7 Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -25,244 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,392 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,852 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.9 56.5 12.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.6 55.6 9.4 – Net Position: -25,244 5,760 19,484 – Gross Longs: 197,240 385,039 83,394 – Gross Shorts: 222,484 379,279 63,910 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.3 77.7 6.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -23.8 25.8 -22.2 British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -59,089 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,881 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,208 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.6 75.3 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.1 42.8 15.2 – Net Position: -59,089 75,405 -16,316 – Gross Longs: 33,850 174,748 18,999 – Gross Shorts: 92,939 99,343 35,315 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.4 74.3 21.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.8 -7.0 -6.7 Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -59,998 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,553 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,445 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.9 71.8 10.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 42.7 38.3 17.1 – Net Position: -59,998 75,067 -15,069 – Gross Longs: 35,533 160,589 23,147 – Gross Shorts: 95,531 85,522 38,216 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.9 72.3 22.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.2 -14.6 -9.1 Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -8,724 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,411 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,135 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.0 63.5 19.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.2 15.4 46.4 – Net Position: -8,724 19,882 -11,158 – Gross Longs: 7,017 26,217 7,984 – Gross Shorts: 15,741 6,335 19,142 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 4.1 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 34.4 75.2 19.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 29.7 -15.9 -6.0 Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 3,505 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -788 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,293 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.9 46.4 22.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.4 49.8 22.0 – Net Position: 3,505 -4,653 1,148 – Gross Longs: 41,613 64,673 31,834 – Gross Shorts: 38,108 69,326 30,686 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.3 64.9 32.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.8 -3.6 -12.4 Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -41,600 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,021 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,621 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 19.3 67.0 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.6 33.9 17.4 – Net Position: -41,600 52,490 -10,890 – Gross Longs: 30,527 106,112 16,570 – Gross Shorts: 72,127 53,622 27,460 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.3 58.0 25.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.6 1.0 -20.6 New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -5,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,773 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,056 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.2 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.6 61.7 5.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 44.1 42.1 13.4 – Net Position: -5,283 8,979 -3,696 – Gross Longs: 14,926 28,261 2,436 – Gross Shorts: 20,209 19,282 6,132 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 62.4 44.2 9.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 22.6 -19.1 -12.0 Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -23,238 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,820 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,418 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 53.5 43.1 3.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 65.4 32.7 1.6 – Net Position: -23,238 20,317 2,921 – Gross Longs: 104,715 84,247 6,023 – Gross Shorts: 127,953 63,930 3,102 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 17.4 81.3 55.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -25.0 25.2 -7.5 Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 10,205 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,128 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,333 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 46.8 46.0 7.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.9 72.5 5.6 – Net Position: 10,205 -10,868 663 – Gross Longs: 19,197 18,878 2,957 – Gross Shorts: 8,992 29,746 2,294 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.4 40.7 72.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -34.5 35.9 -19.8 Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -591 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 420 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 76.5 1.6 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 77.7 3.1 6.5 – Net Position: -171 -201 372 – Gross Longs: 10,325 216 1,247 – Gross Shorts: 10,496 417 875 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 77.2 46.1 21.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.4 17.5 6.2 Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.