msft

Bing with AI and ChatGPT are some of the first major tech releases that show just how persuasive, and sometimes disturbing, new AI chatbots can be.

First errors

Just over a week after Microsoft Corp. presented its new search engine Bing the first testers point out the errors and disturbing answers generated by this technology.

Microsoft unveiled the updated Bing at an event last week at its headquarters in Redmond, Washington. The company says the change enables a new type of search, where people will ask questions to the search engine in natural language, and Bing will generate direct answers and suggestions, as opposed to directing users to different websites.

Some parts of the demo were problematic: Microsoft showed how Bing could generate and compare public company leaderboards with regular language prompts, but the information Bing displayed contained errors.

In the days that followed, people began sharing their experiences online, with many pointing out mistakes and confus

ATVI and MSFT - Ones To Watch After The Transaction

ATVI and MSFT - Ones To Watch After The Transaction

FXStreet News FXStreet News 19.01.2022 16:02
Activision stock surges as Microsoft gets game. ATVI to be bought for $95 a share or nearly $69 billion in all-cash deal. Microsoft to pay a $3 billion break fee if the deal does not go ahead. Activision (ATVI) shares surged to $90 early yesterday as news broke of a deal with Microsoft (MSFT). The Wall Street Journal appears to have first broken the story, which saw ATVI stock surge straight to $90 or up nearly 40% on the previous close. The story was soon confirmed as Microsoft released a press statement. Activision Stock News Microsoft would pay $95 a share, which puts the deal down at $68.7 billion. The deal is all cash and is due to close in 2023. Activision CEO Bobby Kotick is likely to leave the company in 2023 once the deal closes, according to reports. Activision has been under intense scrutiny after accusations of sexual harassment surfaced. The company has reportedly confirmed the exit of 37 employees since the news broke back in July, and Activision has taken action against 44 other employees, according to the WSJ. The situation with regard to Sony gets interesting as Sony shares dropped sharply yesterday once the rumour was confirmed. Sony was Activision's's largest customer in 2020, accounting for nearly 20% of its revenue. Sony Playstation boss Jim Ryan had expressed "deep concern" at the harrassment allegations and said, "We do not believe their statements of response properly address the situation." Sony now finds itself staring down the possibility that some major Activision titles such as Call of Duty and Candy Crush will no longer be available on the Sony Playstation platform. It appears from the latest reports that Microsoft took advantage of the timing to negotiate the deal. According to Bloomberg, Microsoft senior executives suggested that PlayStation head Phil Spencer contact Activision and make it clear that Microsoft had concerns. Microsoft also wanted to keep an eye on the fallout and see if a potential deal could be done. The company had been on the lookout for acquisitions in the gaming space. Activision Stock Forecast The deal is set at $95 and given that Microsoft has agreed to pay $3 billion if the deal falls through it must be fairly confident of getting it completed. Currently, ATVI shares are trading at $82.53 in Wednesday's premarket. As is usually the case in a merger, the shares of the target company usually trade at a lower price than the takeover price due to risk premium. Occasionally, they can trade above the takeover price if investors believe the offer is too low or they anticipate a bidding war from another pursuer. In this case, there cannot be too many companies with $69 billion in cash waiting in the wings. Activision (ATVI) chart, daily Microsoft Stock News By comparison Microsoft stock fell on the news. The deal will immediately be accretive to earnigs on completion. MSFT shares closed just over 2% lower on Tuesday after the announcement. Technically, the stock looks to be under pressure with $318.23 the bullish pivot and the next key support coming from the 200-day moving average at $292. Microsoft (MSFT) stock chart, daily
UK inflation reaches 30 year high

UK inflation reaches 30 year high

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 19.01.2022 12:08
While the government and Bank of England have attempted to deal with the rise in prices and creeping inflation, today's figures continue to show that the path forward may be longer than expected. While a slight adjustment in monetary policy may contribute, today’s data showed the highest level in 30 years as the economy is still recovering from the pandemic and could take a significant amount of time to return to normal levels. Ultimately, this situation continues to impact everyday consumers who may see some very noticeable changes to their lifestyle and expenses if the ongoing trend continues. Crypto markets retreat as investors worry about increased regulation and central bank decisions Crypto markets along with other traditional risk assets continue to feel the pressure of incoming fiscal and monetary policy changes from central banks which is due to remove some of the excess liquidity from markets after the unprecedented support received by them, However, crypto is currently dealing a wide variety of negative news and potential increases in regulations which have contributed to the recent pullback across assets as Ethereum continues to hover above the key $3000 psychological level. While fundamental factors may have changed slightly, the second biggest coin is trading at the lowest level in several months and as traders await a catalyst, the situation remains potentially quite volatile. Activision Blizzard acquisition by Microsoft could be a game changer This $68,7 Billion deal could prove to be a turning point for Activision Blizzard, who has seen its share price drop more than 44% in the last year on the back of disappointing results and a number of corporate as well as internal issues. Microsoft announced it will be offering as many Activision Blizzard games as possible within Xbox Game Pass and PC Game Pass, which just reached 25 million subscribers, and might provide the much needed boost in player base. Furthermore, a more direct input in general operations decisions could aim to rectify decisional issues and bring a more united direction for the company moving forward. Investors already reacted to this news favourably with Activision Blizzard stock price gaining over 30% on Tuesday while Sony stock actually fell as shareholders consider the risks associated with this acquisition.  
(ADA) Cardano Price - ADA To USD Chart Shows It's a Little Above $1

(ADA) Cardano Price - ADA To USD Chart Shows It's a Little Above $1

FXStreet News FXStreet News 24.01.2022 16:12
Cardano's price action is slipping below the monthly S1 and crucial historical support. Once broken below this vital support, an area of 30% losses could be triggered. Expect bulls to await the FED meeting later this week before engaging in the market. Cardano (ADA) price action is not seeing the turn in sentiment that was expected with the start of a new trading week. Geopolitical talks are ramping up again this Monday regarding Russia, and investors are awaiting details of monetary tightening by the FED later this week, making investors an absent party in the cryptocurrency market for the first few days of the week. As $1.01 is under fire, expect a break below to open the next leg lower towards $0.69, shedding another 30% of the price value for the altcoin. Cardano price sees investors absent in the build up to the FED rate decision Cardano participants seem to be split in half, with only sellers and bears present in the market, while bulls and investors remain on the sideline. The biggest reasons for this are the political rhetoric on Russia that is ramping up again this morning after statements that NATO and the US would send in more military material and troops. Financial markets, meanwhile, are awaiting the outcome of the FED monetary policy meeting Wednesday. These two tail risks keep price action muted or further to the downside, with investors sidelined. ADA this morning is drilling down on the monthly S1 support level and the historical $1.01 level that goes back to March 05. Once this breaks, expect not much support to be present until $0.69 where the monthly S2 support level kicks in at around $0.75, but the most significant historical level is at $0.69 from February 06. Expect buyers to come in there as that would mean that ADA price action is back at 0% on a Year-To-Date (YTD) performance. ADA/USD daily chart As the FED holds the keys for a turn in sentiment short-term, expect a pop higher to unfold very quickly. A knee jerk reaction would wash out many short positions and bring price action quickly back towards $1.40, at the level of the monthly pivot and the green ascending trend line. Should the message from the FED by Wednesday be very dovish and in favour of risk-on sentiment, expect a possible test of $1.68 further to the upside for this week.
MSFT, Johnson&Johnson and More Companies With Reports to be Released shortly

MSFT, Johnson&Johnson and More Companies With Reports to be Released shortly

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 25.01.2022 14:11
While there have been a number of factors impacting the markets in the last few days, investors are now beginning to focus on earnings reports coming from some of the biggest companies in the US after the slight disappointments seen in the past couple of weeks. Today's focus will likely be Microsoft's report, which could shed some light on the performance of the tech giant that has recently been in the news for the substantial acquisition deal made with Activision Blizzard that shook markets last week. While there will also be other major earnings from companies such as Johnson & Johnson as well as General Electric, investors are still trying to adjust to the significant volatility seen in markets recently. As tensions rise in eastern Europe and as many await the key FOMC decision tomorrow, we could be seeing a continuation of said volatility along with widespread uncertainty.    UK public sector borrowing report  The public sector borrowing report showed a slight increase in December on a monthly basis after pulling back slightly in October. While this may not seem like a significant issue for the time being, government spending has been one of the key topics related to the post pandemic recovery since if unchecked, it would add significant pressure on future expenses and limit potential economic growth. As investors await upcoming central bank decisions and as inflation concerns continue to rise, today's report could shift the markets perspective slightly regarding the state of public finances in the UK as it once again begins to show signs of weakness.  
Swissquote MarketTalk: A Look At XAUUSD, Swiss Secrets, Tesla And More

APPL and MSFT and Their Reports, What About Nasdaq and S&P 500?

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 25.01.2022 14:19
The S&P500 and Nasdaq dived 4% before reversing losses and closing the session in the green. But yesterday’s rebound doesn’t mean the equity markets are out of the woods just yet. On the contrary, the rising volatility hints at further market turbulence ahead, as investors are worried about the Fed tightening, the Ukrainian war threat, and some unachieved goals on Biden’s political agenda as the Build Back Better & Chinese trade deficit. The FOMC starts its two-day meeting today, yet given the bloodbath in equity markets, the policymakers could refrain from reviving the Fed hawks. But even with an eventually softer Fed statement, and some market correction, there is a slim chance we see meme stocks, SPAC deals, or highly speculative names doing well in an environment of tighter Fed liquidity. There is, on the other hand, a better chance for companies like Apple and Microsoft to navigate through a high turbulence market. So, the Fed tightening will certainly support the reflation trade, but it will more importantly trigger a flight to quality. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:21 Market update: S&P500, Nasdaq shattered 2:47 … but UBS is positive 4:39 If you buy the dip, make sure to buy the right stocks 6:01 Fed meeting 7:09 Microsoft, Apple earnings 7:37 Challenges beyond the Fed tightening 8:53 Safe haven roundup: USD, gold & Swiss franc Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.
Decentralized Autonomous Organisation - Another Addition To Our Personal Dictionaries

MATIC Price Prediction: Polygon hints at a retest of $1.95

FXStreet News FXStreet News 03.02.2022 16:35
MATIC price is hovering above the weekly support level at $1.44, hinting at a move higher. Investors can expect Polygon to rally at least 15% before encountering a tough hurdle. A breakdown of the $1.41 support level will invalidate the bullish thesis. MATIC price recovery after the January flash crash was good but is slowing down. The ongoing consolidation will likely result in an uptrend (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/matic-price-consolidates-before-jumping-to-190-202202022123) that propels Polygon to revisit crucial levels. MATIC price sets the stage MATIC price has been teetering above the $1.44 support level and will likely retest it soon. A bounce off this barrier could be the key to triggering an uptrend. In some cases, the rally could even begin before the initial pullback. Regardless, investors can expect a minimum 15% ascent from MATIC price that tags the supply zone’s lower limit at $1.75. In a highly bullish scenario, Polygon could pierce this hurdle and make a run for the weekly resistance barrier at $1.95. This move would bring total gains from 15% to 27%, from the current level at $1.53. Investors willing to go long could enter a pilot position at the current level and wait for a retest of the $1.44 barrier. If the latter does not arrive, market participants can book profits following a retest of $1.75 and $1.95. MATIC/USDT 4-hour chart While things seem straightforward for MATIC price, a breakdown of the $1.44 support level could dent their optimism. A four-hour candlestick close below $1.41, however, will create a lower low and invalidate the bullish thesis, making an ideal place to enter a stop-loss. A bearish turn could see MATIC price crashing 13% before retesting the $1.23 weekly support level.
Bullish momentum remains strong

Bullish momentum remains strong

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 20.02.2022 17:36
Even at the last important low (US$$1,750) on December 15th, 2021, the sentiment was still awful as the sector had become the most hated asset class. Now fast-forward, gold has been successfully breaking out of its multi month triangle and keeps sprinting higher. The bulls currently are bending the daily and weekly Bollinger Bands to the upside, and seasonality is still supportive.Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 20th, 2022.Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 20th, 2022.Looking at the weekly chart, it appears that gold not only broke out of a triangle consolidation pattern, but also out of a large inverse head and shoulder pattern. It’s not a textbook head and shoulder, but worthwhile noting. A measured move projection could theoretically take gold towards US$2,125! However, the monthly Bollinger Band, sitting at around US$ 1,975, might be a much more realistic target for the ongoing move. As you might remember, the zone between US$1,950 to US$1,975 is very strong resistance. We would not rule out a short-lived overshoot towards US$,2000, though.Overall, the weekly chart is not yet overbought and looks bullish. Hence, the rally has very good chances to continue for a few more weeks.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.As expected, the breakout above US$1,840 to US$1,850 has unleashed enough energy to quickly push gold prices towards the round psychological number of US$1,900. Fortunately, the daily stochastic has transformed its overboughtness into the rare “embedded status”, where both signal lines are sitting above 80 for more than three days in a row. Hence, the uptrend is locked-in and shorting this market would be fighting the uptrend.Of course, given the uncertain and complex geopolitical situation, events can and likely will strongly influence gold over the coming days and weeks. Speaking from a technical point of you, any pullback towards the breakout zone around US$1,845 would be a buying opportunity. However, prices below US$1,875 would already be a surprise in the short-term. On the contrary, it’s much more likely that gold will continue its run to at least US$1,930 over the coming days.In summary, the daily chart is bullish. Especially the bullish embedded stochastic oscillator likely will not allow any larger pullback, but rather a consolidation around US$1,900. Watch those two signal lines. Only if one of them would be dropping below 80on a daily close, the bull run might be over!GDX (VanEck Gold Miners ETF) in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.GDX, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.Gold & gold related mining stocks often stabilize your portfolio during uncertain times and do act as a hedge. While the stock market continued its dive due to the crisis in Ukraine and the potential interest rate turnaround in the US, the GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF is up more than 21.5% since its low in mid of December. Over the last two weeks, the leading gold mining stocks recorded some of their best days in the last 12 months. Last week, Barrick Gold ($GOLD) jumped up more than 7% due to good earnings, a dividend increase, and a new share repurchase program. Some smaller gold stocks like Sabina Gold & Silver ($SGSVF) went up even more (+15% Friday, 11th).Now that gold is on the rise, it’s time for the beaten down and undervalued mining stocks to catch up. Usually, it starts with the big senior produces like Barrick Gold, Agnico Eagle Mines ($AEM) and Newmont Corporation ($NEM), then the juniors like for example Victoria Gold Corp. ($VITFF) join and finally, the explorer and developers literally explode higher.However, the GDX has nearly reached its downtrend line as well as the 38.2% retracement of the whole corrective wave since August 2020. Hence, the big miners are running into string resistance and might need to consolidate soon.At the same time, note, that silver has been lagging. Silver always lags most of the time, but in the final stage of sector wide rally it suddenly passes all the other metals and shots up nearly vertically. That also typically is the sign that the rally in the sector is coming to an end. Obviously, we have not yet seen any strong silver days. Therefore, silver actually confirms that the sector has more room and time to run higher!Conclusion: Bullish momentum remains strongOverall, gold continues to look promising here as the bullish momentum remains strong. Hence, Gold is probably on the way towards US$1,950 and US$1,975, with a slight chance for an overshot to US$2,000. But of course, given the rather overbought daily chart, the risk/reward is not that good anymore. Silver and many of the smaller mining stocks, however, might still offer a chance to play the ongoing rally over the next few weeks. Once gold tops out in spring, expect a big pullback. Maybe even back towards the higher trending 200-day moving average (currently at US$1,808) at some point in midsummer. But that is all somewhere in the future. For now, the bullish momentum remains strong.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Florian Grummes|February 20th, 2022|Tags: $GDXJ, Barrick Gold, GDX, Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, gold fundamentals, Newmont Corporation, precious metals, Reyna Gold, Sabina Gold & Silver, Silver, silver bull, US-Dollar, Victoria Gold|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.
Intraday Market Analysis – The Canadian Dollar Recovers

Intraday Market Analysis – The Canadian Dollar Recovers

Jing Ren Jing Ren 14.03.2022 07:50
USDCAD struggles for supportThe Canadian dollar surged after a sharp drop in February’s unemployment rate. A break above the recent peak at 1.2875 has consolidated the US dollar’s lead.The RSI’s repeatedly overbought condition has led to some profit-taking. As the indicator swung into the oversold area, a pullback attracted bargain hunters in the demand zone between 61.8% (1.2700) Fibonacci retracement level and 1.2680.A rally above 1.2840 may resume the rally and send the pair to December’s high at 1.2960.EURJPY attempts reversalThe euro continues upward after the ECB left the door open to an interest rate hike. A pop above 128.60 has prompted sellers to reconsider their bets.However, traders can expect strong bearish pressure in the supply zone around 129.20. This level overlays with the 20-day moving average, making it a congestion area.An overbought RSI has tempered the initial comeback and the bulls need to consolidate their positions before they could push further. 126.50 is key support and 124.40 a second line of defense to keep the pair afloat.UK 100 bounces backThe FTSE 100 recoups losses as Britain’s GDP beat expectations in January. The rebound has gained traction after it broke above 7200.After a brief pause, the index met buying interest over 7050 and a bullish MA cross indicates an acceleration to the upside. Sentiment remains cautious from the daily chart perspective though and the bears could be waiting to sell into strength.7450 at the origin of the latest sell-off is a major hurdle as its breach could turn the mood around. Otherwise, there could be a revision of 6800 soon.
Risks in the US Banking System: Potential Impacts and Contagion Concerns

The Following Week: Only One (!) Interest Rate Decision, British CPI And US Crude Oil Inventories – Economic Calendar By FXMAG.COM

Mikołaj Marcinowski Mikołaj Marcinowski 18.03.2022 19:51
After a week full of central bank’s announcement it’s time to shift down and observe ‘boring’ economic indicators. Data: courtesy of Investing.com Monday, Tuesday - Japan And South Africa Bank of Japan released its monetary policy statement the previous week. The following Monday is a day free for both Japanese and South Africa’s people. Wednesday - Great Britain, Germany And The USA On Wednesday British CPI is released (prev. 5.5%). One and a half an hour later German Manufacturing PMI goes public. After midday (12:30 p.m.) Annual Budget Release is published and followed by the releases of US New Home Sales. At 2:30 p.m. many investors might follow the release of Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday – Switzerland, Germany And The USA At 8:30 SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q1) is released. What is not so usual – the current interest rate in Switzerland amounts to… -0.75%. At the same time German Manufacturing PMI is released. Four hours later important news comes from the USA where Core Durable Goods Orders are presented (0.7%). Friday – Great Britain, Germany And The USA Friday’s morning might be important for British people as Retail Sales indicator is published. The previously announced value was 1.9%. At 9 a.m. we head to Germany for the last time the following week, because German Ifo Business Climate is released (prev. 98.9). The last important event of the week 21/03-25/03 is the US Pending Home Sales (MoM) released at 2 p.m. Source: Investing.com Economic Calendar Time: GMT
The Current War Between China And The United States Over Semiconductor Chips Is Gaining Momentum

Google and Microsoft Fell, Expectations For Meta Are Low | The Bank Of Canada Will Deliver A Jumbo Rate Hike

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 26.10.2022 11:11
US indices rallied yesterday on the back of soft economic data from the US, but the sentiment reversed after the Q3 results from Google and Microsoft didn't please. Both stocks fell in the afterhours trading. Rest of the earnings were mixed. Meta is the next US giant to announce earnings, and expectations are rather… low. US Yields The US 2-year yield has been easing after hitting a fresh 15-year high last week, as the US 10-year yield fell to 4.05%. The dollar index tanked around 1%, both the EURUSD and Cable advanced past their 50-DMA, which were acting as strong resistance since the start of the year, especially since the start of the war in Ukraine. Bank of Canada The USDCAD fell to a 3-week low, as the Bank of Canada (BoC) prepares to deliver another jumbo rate hike today. The BoC could deliver a 75bp hike, which would further fuel the odds of recession in Canada by next year. FX Market It’s important to note that the common denominator of the latest FX moves is the softer US dollar. And the downside moves in dollar and the US yields depend on Fed expectations – whatever the other central banks do seem accessory to the main dollar story. Fed The Fed expectations have been shaped by softish data, and some softish comments from the Fed officials recently. But there is nothing official pointing at a potential softening tone from the Fed just yet. Hence, the recent fall in the US dollar, and rebound in equities may not last. Gains remain vulnerable. And very much so, as the latest results from the US tech giants failed to make the investors smile yesterday. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:35 Soft US data fueled optimism… 3:15 … but Big Tech earnings hurt. GOOG & MSFT fell 6.5% post-market 5:01 Other companies announced mixed results 6:30…as UPS surprised 7:00 Some come back to stocks, but stock/ bond correlation remains high 7:52 Meta earnings preview: expect nothing crazy… Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Meta #Google #Microsoft #UPS #Spotify #GM #Visa #UBS #CocaCola #earnings #USD #EUR #GBP #CAD #BoC #rate #decision #US #home #prices #Fed #expectations #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH  
Earnings of Microsoft and Google are hard to be seen as S&P 500's and Nasdaq's "healers"

Earnings of Microsoft and Google are hard to be seen as S&P 500's and Nasdaq's "healers"

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 26.10.2022 10:59
The technology companies that have acted as growth drivers for stock markets in recent years are increasingly losing their leading positions. Although it would be too naive to talk about the "beginning of the end" for the IT giants, the initial reaction to the reports of Microsoft and Alphabet makes it seem more like a threat to the recovery of the Nasdaq and S&P500 indices. Shares of both giants are losing around 6.6% on the post-market. Microsoft's revenue and profit beat expectations, but investors see more negative numbers in the dynamic (-3.4% QoQ on revenue and -14.4% YoY on profit). Alphabet noted a tough time in the ad market, with an overall profit fall of 26.6% y/y despite revenue growth of 6.6% y/y. The latter is the lowest rate in 9 years. Experienced traders have long noticed that companies are likely to present the situation to industry analysts, so they make low projections. And easily beat them shortly after in ¾ of the cases. It is, therefore, not uncommon for neutral numbers or a slight overperformance to lead to a share price slump. Also, in growth sectors, markets are paying increased attention to companies' forecasts. And they have been disappointed. Both Microsoft and Alphabet cited falling PC and ad sales. And that's bad news for the future, as it doesn't set the stage for a turnaround in the coming months. Microsoft's comments about cloud computing cuts also pulled Amazon shares, which are losing 4.3% in the post-market. On a more general level, the simple rule of thumb remains that the IT sector is inversely correlated with interest rate movements and is more vulnerable during the economic downturn for which many are now preparing. Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Choosing from major US indices - the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq - the first looks the most promising, including more manufacturing companies and a smaller weighting on the IT sector. This driver change can already be seen in that the Dow Jones made its lows in early October, while the other two made their lows on 13 October: the strongest are recovering first. And it is not the Technology sector right now. Nonetheless, while this trio stays about 20% below the peak and the US Fed forwarding market expectations to slower rate hikes, it looks like the bottom is already behind us.
Declines At The Close Of The New York Stock Exchange, The Drop Leaders Were Nike Inc Shares

NASDAQ Futures Down More Than 1.5%, Xi Jinping Pushes Out Youth League Members From Politburo, Spotify Users Up 20% YoY

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 26.10.2022 12:15
Summary: NASDAQ weighed down by poor MSFT & GOOGL earnings. Xi's years-long campaign to destroy the faction was successful. Spotify surpassed expectations in terms of both paid and free user growth. NASDAQ down more than 1.5% on Tuesday On Wednesday, Nasdaq futures dropped more than 1% after poor financial statements from tech titans Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Microsoft prompted losses at other megacap firms and fueled concerns about slowing economic growth. While Alphabet, the parent company of Google, reported disappointing ad sales and warned of a slowdown in advertising expenditure, Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) reported its lowest sales growth in five years and anticipated second-quarter revenue below Wall Street estimates. In premarket trade, the businesses' shares plummeted 5.7% and 6.0%, respectively, while those of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN), who are expected to release earnings this week, dropped 3.7% and 0.6%. The disappointing results come after Snap Inc. (NYSE:SNAP) issued a warning last week over sluggish ad demand and a string of mixed earnings reports, which have added to concerns that the economy is being negatively impacted by decades-high inflation and ad-hoc interest rate hikes to combat it. ⚠️BREAKING:*NASDAQ 100 FUTURES TUMBLE 1.8% AS GOOGLE, MICROSOFT SINK AFTER EARNINGS$QQQ $GOOGL $MSFT pic.twitter.com/2rd4B4bJjP — Investing.com (@Investingcom) October 26, 2022 China’s new president pushes out youth league members The three most notable absences from China's new Communist Party leadership have one thing in common: they all rose through the ranks of the Youth League and were regarded as representatives of a once-dominant clique, whose influence Xi Jinping has now successfully quashed. Even the larger Central Committee was bypassed as Xi installed supporters in key party positions during the recent twice-a-decade leadership reshuffle. Premier Li Keqiang and Vice Premier Wang Yang, both 67 and young enough to be re-appointed to the elite seven-member Politburo Standing Committee, were left out. Hu Chunhua, a fellow vice premier and former high flyer who, at 59, had been considered a prospect for premier and, at one point, even a potential future president, failed to make it to the 24-man Politburo. Analysts said the omissions demonstrate Xi's years-long campaign to destroy the faction was successful. China's Xi deals knockout blow to once-powerful Youth League faction https://t.co/g47pd77mil pic.twitter.com/uqSDoVgG2g — Reuters (@Reuters) October 26, 2022 Spotify up 20% on Users Spotify surpassed expectations in terms of both paid and free user growth in the third quarter, pointing to the region's strength in particular. A net addition of 23 million members, or 20% more than Spotify's previous projection, brought the total number of monthly active users (MAUs) to 456 million, which is the company's highest Q3 growth to date. The number of Spotify Premium subscribers increased to 195 million, up 7 million during the time (about 1 million more than expected) and 13% annually. Ek stated on the earnings call that Spotify is considering increasing the cost of its U.S. subscription plans in response to price increases by YouTube Premium and Apple Music. “[I]t’s something we will [discuss] with our label partners,” he said. “I feel good about this upcoming year, and what it means about pricing for our service.” Spotify (SPOT) reported a quarterly loss of $0.99 per share vs the $0.88 loss that the Zacks Consensus Estimate had predicted. This contrasts with a loss of $0.48 per share in the prior year. These numbers have non-recurring expenses taken into account. This quarterly report shows a -12.50% profits surprise. This music streaming service operator surprised analysts by posting a loss of $0.91 per share during the most recent quarter when it was anticipated that it would lose $0.68, a difference of -33.82%. The management's remarks on the earnings call will be largely responsible for determining if the stock's current price movement based on previously revealed numbers and anticipated future earnings can be sustained. Compared to the S&P 500's -20.3% decrease since the start of the year, Spotify share prices have fallen by around 59.6%. Spotify reaches 456M total monthly users in Q3, up 20% YoY and topping expectations https://t.co/vRe14ATA7s via @Variety CEO also said subscribers can expect price hikes for the service sometime in 2023. $SPOT shares are down 5% in after market trading. — Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) October 25, 2022 Sources: finance.yahoo.com, twitter.com, reuters.com, investing.com
Apple Stock Price, Microsoft, Amazon And Tesla (TSLA) Added A Lot Since July! How Deep Could EUR/USD Drop?

The FTC Is Trying To Block Microsoft's Merger With Activision

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 09.12.2022 12:42
The Federal Trade Commission on Thursday sued to block Microsoft’s planned $69 billion takeover of video game company Activision Blizzard. Read next: UK Santander Bank Fined USD 132 Million, Idris Elba in Cyberpunk 2077:Phantom Liberty| FXMAG.COM The deal has come under pressure The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) to prevent the takeover of Activision Blizzard Inc by Microsoft Corp. filed a lawsuit. Law enforcement said the deal was illegal because it would give Microsoft the ability to control how consumers outside of users of their own Xbox consoles and subscription services access Activision games. The committee's vote was three to one to allow the lawsuit. The FTC said it filed the complaint as part of the administrative process, rather than taking the case to federal court. The FTC's decision to send the complaint to its in-house judge instead of seeking an urgent federal court order to stop the merger could drag the case out for months. The FTC's challenge may be a test of President Joe Biden's mandate to control big tech mergers. Microsoft's last major antitrust battle came more than two decades ago when a federal judge ordered it to break up after the company's anti-competitive actions related to its dominant Windows software. This judgment was overturned on appeal, although the court imposed other, less drastic penalties on the company. Progressive groups are putting pressure on the FTC to block the deal. Sony has been the most vocal critic of the planned deal with Activision, arguing that it could hurt competition if Microsoft restricts access to Activision's games, especially "Call of Duty". Microsoft CEO Brad Smith signaled in a Thursday statement that the company was likely to challenge the FTC's actions. Microsoft has repeatedly said it has no plans to deny Sony and others access to Activision games and that its deal with the company won't hurt competition. The company has publicly pledged to give Sony and Nintendo access to the new "Call of Duty" games on their current hardware. Microsoft said it still believes the deal, which it estimates at $68.7 billion when adjusted for Activision's net cash, will boost competition. Microsoft is committed to addressing competition issues and presented proposed concessions to the FTC earlier this week. According to Bloomberg Intelligence analysts, the combined company would control around 11% of the global digital game publishing business. Microsoft's deal with Activision, which would be its largest ever acquisition, is also being investigated by antitrust authorities in the UK and the European Union. Microsoft is one of the stocks the deal with Activision Blizzard is focused on. Microsoft’s shares closed up about 1%, while Activision’s shares were down by about 1.5%. The downtrend, like many other tech stocks, appeared on the MSFT chart. They reached the lowest level at the beginning of November, where they made up for losses in subsequent periods. At the beginning of December, they reached the highest level in the last quarter. MSFT is currently trading at 247.87. Microsoft shares chart The last quarter of this year does not look too good for Activision shares. Activision shares chart Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com
European Markets Face Headwinds Amid Rising Yields and Inflation Concerns

Microsoft (MSFT) rose 2.89% after announcing it will purchase a 4% stake in London Stock Exchange Group

Intertrader Market News Intertrader Market News 13.12.2022 10:42
DAILY MARKET NEWSLETTER December 13, 2022                 Pre-Market Session News Sentiment Technical Views           EUR/USD   Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)   Brent (ICE)                 Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.                     Price Movement Analyst Views Target Pivot   Dax (Eurex) 14,324.00 -45.00 (-0.31%) Read the analysis 14,397.00 14,199.00     FTSE 100 (ICE Europe) 0.00 0.00 (0.00%) Read the analysis 7,499.00 7,431.00     S&P 500 (CME) 4,018.25 +50.00 (+1.26%) Read the analysis 4,045.00 3,982.00     Nasdaq 100 (CME) 11,809.50 +126.50 (+1.08%) Read the analysis 11,860.00 11,730.00     Dow Jones (CME) 34,218.00 +477.00 (+1.41%) Read the analysis 34,420.00 34,010.00     Crude Oil (WTI) 73.46 +2.44 (+3.44%) Read the analysis 75.40 72.80     Gold 1,781.22 -16.102 (-0.90%) Read the analysis 1,777.00 1,789.00                     MARKET WRAP           Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, CommoditiesOn Monday, major U.S. stock indexes rose over 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 528 points (+1.58%) to 34,005, the S&P 500 rose 56 points (+1.43%) to 3,990, and the Nasdaq 100 was up 143 points (+1.24%) to 11,706.The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield added 3.7 basis points to 3.615%.U.S. inflation data will be released on Tuesday, and the Federal Reserve will set interest rates on Wednesday.Transportation (+2.86%), energy (+2.49%), and software (+2.45%) sectors led the market higher.Microsoft (MSFT) rose 2.89% after announcing it will purchase a 4% stake in London Stock Exchange Group.Coupa Software (COUP) surged 26.67%. The cloud-based business software firm said it has agreed to be taken private by buyout firm Thoma Bravo in a deal that values the company at $8 billion.Amgen (AMGN) agreed to buy Horizon Pharma (HZNP) for $116.50 per share or $27.8 billion in total. Amgen's share price closed 0.67% higher, and Horizon Pharma jumped 15.49%.Rivian Automotive (RIVN) declined 6.16%. The company said it paused discussions with Mercedes-Benz on forming a strategic partnership over electric pickup trucks. European stocks closed lower. The DAX 40 fell 0.45%, the CAC 40 declined 0.41%, and the FTSE 100 was down 0.41%.Oil prices were supported by a prolonged outage of the Canada-to-U.S. Keystone crude-oil pipeline. U.S. WTI crude futures gained $2.40 (+3.38%) to $73.46 a barrel.Gold price slid $16 to $1,781 an ounce.Market Wrap: ForexThe U.S. dollar held up well against other major currencies. The dollar index climbed to 105.02.USD/JPY jumped 115 pips to 137.71.EUR/USD dipped 5 pips to 1.0535. GBP/USD rose 9 pips to 1.2268. U.K. gross domestic product grew 0.5% on month (vs +0.4% expected) and 1.5% on year (vs +1.6% expected) in October. Industrial production showed no growth in October, as expected,AUD/USD dropped 47 pips to 0.6748. This morning, the Westpac consumer confidence index rebounded 3.0% on month in December (vs -6.9% in November).USD/CHF added 23 pips to 0.9365, while USD/CAD was down 14 pips to 1.3631.Bitcoin regained the $17,000 level.Morning TradingIn Asian trading hours, USD/JPY held up well at 137.70, while AUD/USD remained under pressure at 0.6742.EUR/USD was little changed at 1.0533, while GBP/USD traded lower to 1.2256.Gold price was flat at $1,781 an ounce.Bitcoin kept trading at levels around $17,100.Expected TodayIn the U.K., the latest jobless rate is expected to edge up to 3.7%.In Germany, the ZEW economic sentiment index is expected to improve to -27 in December. And the November inflation rate is expected to be finalized at 10.0% on year.In the U.S., the inflation rate is expected to tick down to 7.6% on year in November.           UK MARKET NEWS           Royal Dutch Shell, an oil giant, announced the sale of its stake in two offshore production sharing contracts in Malaysia's Baram Delta to Petroleum Sarawak Exploration & Production Sdn Bhd for $475 million.InterContinental Hotels Group, a hotel operator, announced the appointment of Michael Glover as chief financial officer.Auto & Parts, insurance and travel & leisure shares gained most in London on Friday.From a relative strength vs FTSE 100 point of view, BAE Systems (+0.65% to 831p) crossed above its 50-day moving average.           ECONOMIC CALENDAR           Time Event Forecast Importance   02:00 Unemployment Rate (Oct) 3.7% HIGH     02:00 Claimant Count Change (Nov) 8k HIGH     02:00 Employment Change (Sep) -20k HIGH     02:00 Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (Oct) 6.1% MEDIUM     02:00 Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (Oct) 5.8% LOW     02:00 HMRC Payrolls Change (Nov) 45k LOW     05:00 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction   LOW     05:30 Financial Stability Report   LOW     05:30 BoE FPC Meeting Minutes   LOW     06:00 NFIB Business Optimism Index (Nov) 89 LOW     08:30 Inflation Rate MoM (Nov) 0.5% HIGH     08:30 Core Inflation Rate MoM (Nov) 0.4% HIGH     08:30 Core Inflation Rate YoY (Nov) 6.2% HIGH     08:30 Inflation Rate YoY (Nov) 7.6% HIGH     08:30 CPI (Nov) 299 MEDIUM     08:55 Redbook YoY (Dec/10)   LOW     10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (Dec) 41 MEDIUM     13:00 30-Year Bond Auction   LOW     16:30 API Crude Oil Stock Change (Dec/09)   MEDIUM                                     NEWS SENTIMENT           London Stock Exchange Group PLC LSEG : LSE 7,626.00 GBp -2.85% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Legal & General Group PLC LGEN : LSE 252.00 GBp -1.60% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   BHP Group PLC BHP : LSE 2,537.00 GBp -1.67% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Neutral       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Argo Group Ltd ARGO : LSE 11.00 GBp 0.00% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Bayerische Motoren Werke AG BMW : XETRA 84.43 EUR -0.89% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                           TECHNICAL VIEWS           EUR/USD Intraday: rebound.   Pivot: 1.0530   Our preference: Long positions above 1.0530 with targets at 1.0575 & 1.0590 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Below 1.0530 look for further downside with 1.0505 & 1.0490 as targets.   Comment: The RSI shows upside momentum.                     Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)‎ (Z2)‎ Intraday: intraday support around 3902.00.   Pivot: 3902.00   Our preference: Long positions above 3902.00 with targets at 3951.00 & 3970.00 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Below 3902.00 look for further downside with 3879.00 & 3864.00 as targets.   Comment: The RSI lacks downward momentum.                     Brent (ICE)‎ (G3)‎ Intraday: further upside.   Pivot: 77.60   Our preference: Long positions above 77.60 with targets at 80.00 & 80.80 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Below 77.60 look for further downside with 76.80 & 76.10 as targets.   Comment: The RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.        
Oil Prices Show Resilience Despite Setbacks, Gold Holds Above $1,900 Ahead of US Jobs Report

Cathie Wood's ARK Innovation (ARKK) Exchange-Traded Fund Loses Investor Confidence

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 13.12.2022 11:37
This year is exceptional in terms of many events, in particular events on the financial markets. ARKK is not doing too well, and Microsoft will take 4% stake in the London Stock Exchange. Read next: Euro Holds Above $1.05, USD/JPY Pair Rose Above 136| FXMAG.COM The Losses Investors have bought up growth stocks and other speculative assets en masse this year. In an environment of rising profits where they suddenly have opportunities to earn returns with little risk, many lose their appetite for cash-losing companies that promise a chance of return in the future. Shares in the fund, a pandemic-era favourite, made up mostly of underperforming, growth-minded tech companies, have fallen 63% this year. Wood's flagship fund is near a five-year low. The three largest holdings in the fund - known by the ticker symbol ARKK - are Zoom Video Communications Inc., Tesla Inc. and Exact Sciences Corp. , companies that Mrs. Wood believes have the potential to change the world. At the beginning of the year, Cathie Wood said that venture stocks in exchange-traded funds sold by ARK Investment Management LLC are so cheap that they will inevitably go up. A surprising number of investors wanted to give it a try. Some $16 billion flowed into ARK Innovation from the second quarter of 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic took hold, through the first quarter of 2021, when the fund’s assets peaked at $28 billion. Investors heeding a “buy the dip” rallying cry poured money into the fund in each of the first five months of the year—a net $1.89 billion—as markets tumbled. Shares of Zoom and Tesla have lost about half their value this year, while Exact Sciences, an unprofitable supplier of cancer screening and diagnostic tools, is down 42%. While many on Wall Street are curbing risks and preparing for a recession, Ms. Wood has increased her risk in recent weeks by buying more shares in cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase Global Inc. and a bitcoin futures ETF. According to FactSet, ARKK added 931,000 Coinbase shares worth about $43 million in November. ARKK is the second-largest holder of Coinbase shares, which are down 83% since the beginning of the year. Similar bets yielded huge gains in a low-interest-rate environment in 2020 and 2021. ARKK's stock more than doubled in 2020 before concerns about inflation — and the prospect of higher rates — stalled its gains. Currently, ARKK is at its lowest levels, approaching pre-2018 levels. The lowest levels of the year may increase investors' concerns. ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) Microsoft Corp and LSEG Microsoft Corp. will take a 4% stake in the London Stock Exchange’s corporate parent. The agreement between the London Stock Exchange Group and Microsoft Corp connects one of the largest American technology companies with the largest market exchange in Europe. LSEG has tied its future to data sales, a way to diversify away from the low-margin stock market business. In 2021, it completed the purchase of the financial, information and terminal company Refinitiv Holdings Ltd. from the Blackstone Inc. consortium. and Thomson Reuters Corp. Microsoft takes the unusual step of buying an ownership stake in a customer by acquiring LSEG's stake from the Blackstone-Reuters consortium. Microsoft did not disclose how much it will pay for the shares. LSEG shares were up 1.8% Monday afternoon in London. Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com
Nubank Announced The Introduction Of Nucoin's Own Cryptocurrency

Microsoft Does Not Allow Cryptocurrency Mining On Its Online Services Without Prior Approval

Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga 16.12.2022 12:48
Crypto Industry News: Microsoft has updated the terms of its policies to highlight that it does not allow cryptocurrency mining on its online services without prior approval. The update went live on December 1 and applies to all users, including paid Microsoft customers. In the "Terms of use" section, Microsoft wrote that it requires users to obtain the company's written pre-approval in order to use any Microsoft Online Services for cryptocurrency mining. It seems that the only time a company would give written approval is for the "Testing and Investigating for Security Detection" purpose. The update prohibits users from mining and adding transaction records to proof-of-work blockchains on Microsoft's online services, largely related to the Microsoft Azure platform. Microsoft has reportedly said that its latest cryptocurrency mining restrictions are designed to protect online services from threats such as cyber fraud, attacks, and unauthorized access to customer resources. Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum cryptocurrency has made a new local high at the level of $1,350. This is the key short-term technical resistance for bulls, so in order to continue the up move the bulls need to break through towards $1,400. The bulls were rejected from this level towards the 100 SMA on the H4 time frame chart. The level of $1,308 will act as the technical support, so please keep an eye on this level. The momentum is weak and negative already, so the corrective cycle might extend towards the technical support located at $1,240. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,291 WR2 - $1,269 WR1 - $1,257 Weekly Pivot - $1,248 WS1 - $1,235 WS2 - $1,226 WS3 - $1,204 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new yearly low was established at $1,074. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000. Relevance up to 10:00 2022-12-17 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/305226
US Inflation Slows as Spending Stalls: Glimmers of Hope for Economic Outlook

Leading Used Tesla Prices Fall Faster Than The Market

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 28.12.2022 11:31
The electric car market is mainly associated with Tesla, its situation is also observed by investors. The stock markets are still attracting new investors, the current year is coming to an end, so it is worth checking what should be confessed to this market in 2023. In this article: US Treasury yields fell Morningstar look at stocks market Tesla news US Treasury yields fell Investors are bracing themselves for the potential pressures of a recession, persistent inflation and what this could mean for Federal Reserve policy, especially with regard to interest rates, in 2023. They will be scouring the latest economic data releases this year for clues. Many investors are hoping the data will signal an easing of inflationary pressures, as it would suggest the Fed may slow down further or stop rate hikes altogether. These factors affect the market situation of bonds. US Treasury yields fell on Wednesday as investors became concerned about economic growth and the direction of monetary policy for 2023. Treasury yields slip as investors gauge 2023 Fed policy https://t.co/uR6xgrxlPy — CNBC (@CNBC) December 28, 2022 Read next: The Crisis Of The Semiconductor Industry, Chip Inventory Levels Are Well Above Our Target Level| FXMAG.COM Morningstar look at stocks market The new year is getting closer. Everyone prepares as best they can to start it in the best possible way, makes plans. The stock market is under the watch of Morningstar analysts. How it presented itself this year and what it is heading for in 2023 is detailed in the following tweet. Early in the year, Morningstar analysts deemed many of the stocks they cover to be overvalued. But after the broad market has fallen more than 20 percent since the start of the year, analysts believe valuations have moved too far in the opposite direction. Over the last 20 years, Morningstar analysts found that US stocks were undervalued only 10 different times, or about 36% of the time. According to Morningstar, among the most underrated industries today are online content and information, including stocks like Alphabet (GOOGL), Google's parent company, and Meta Platforms (META), Facebook's parent company. Where are stocks looking cheap or expensive as we head into 2023?Here are 7 charts detailing our analysts' latest stock market valuations: https://t.co/UZMK7Ygufy pic.twitter.com/uUsnYGWKZI — Morningstar, Inc. (@MorningstarInc) December 28, 2022 Tesla Tesla is the most popular manufacturer of electric cars. Sales have increased in recent years, but many factors affect car prices. Fuel prices are easing, interest rates are rising, Tesla output is increasing, and EV competition is growing, all of which have implications for the price of used Teslas. Soaring gasoline prices as a result of the war in Ukraine have boosted demand for the Tesla, one of the few long-range electric vehicles on the market. Buyers of some new Teslas took advantage of the booming market to sell their relatively new cars at a profit and then order new ones, fueling the demand for new Tesla cars. Used Tesla prices are falling faster than those of other automakers, and clean energy status symbols languish in dealerships longer, according to the information. WATCH: Fuel prices are easing, interest rates are rising, Tesla output is increasing, and EV competition is growing, leading used Tesla prices to fall faster than the market. It's creating a cascading effect on new Tesla prices https://t.co/jCLZphpcRX pic.twitter.com/ZgXRr3d2Fc — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) December 28, 2022
Twitter And Elon Musk Faced A Growing List Of Claims

Twitter Did Not Pay $136,260 Rent, Microsoft Reported Its Worst Quarterly Results In Years

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 02.01.2023 12:04
Twitter has been struggling with new problems since the beginning of the year. This time he was accused of not paying the rent. Other tech companies are also having problems. 2022 was not the best year for Meta or Mircrosoft stocks. Twitter has another problem While Elon Musk has been working to cut costs on Twitter since he took over the company in October. More problems arise. Recently there has been an inflromation that the social platform will experience technical difficulties in using the computer version. Today there was information about financial problems. The owner, Columbia Reit-650 California LLC, says the social media company failed to pay $136,260 in owed rent for office space at 650 California St. The lawsuit alleging breach of contract was filed in the California Supreme Court in San Francisco. Other companies, including a software provider and a transportation company, have also sued Twitter in recent weeks in an effort to recover overdue payments. Can this prove that under the leadership of a businessman, Twitter is struggling with serious financial problems. What's more, according to Twitter data, hasn't booked an annual profit since 2019. Even though the new year has brought some shocking news about Twitter, its shares are above 50 and thus are the highest. Read next: Walmart Has Ambitions To Become An E-Commerce Leader| FXMAG.COM It was a tough time for tech stocks The future outlook is an important aspect when buying stocks, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. For most of the past decade, investors have focused on high-growth tech stocks whose strong year-over-year returns have convinced them they have no choice but to grow. Soaring stocks like Facebook's parent company Meta Platforms Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Netflix Inc. and owner of Google Alphabet Inc. caused the major indices to hit dozens of new highs. The trade has become so popular that it has its own acronym: FAANG. Meta dropped 64% in 2022; Netflix dropped 51%; the other three shares fell at least 27%. Together, FAANG shares have lost more than $3 trillion in market value, helping to pull the wider stock market down with it. As consumers and businesses tighten their belts to prepare for a potential recession, tech companies that seemed immune to the economic woes of the pandemic have seen their revenues plummet. Companies like Microsoft reported their worst quarterly results in years. Amazon and Meta announced layoffs. When interest rates were close to zero, investors were more willing to pay for growth stocks and risky assets in search of higher returns. However, with the Fed raising interest rates at the fastest pace since the 1980s, the market environment began to favor investments, which now generate cash for the holder. Even after tech stocks ran out last year, the sector still looks expensive compared to the wider market. Although the tech stock market has not been positive lately, MSFT prices have kept their prices above 200. The second half of last year was quite weak for this company's stock and mostly in a downtrend, but prices remained mostly above 225. MSFT share price Meta shares also had their worst period recently, with the price mostly staying around 120. Meta share price Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com
The Acquisition Of Activision Blizzard Could Give The Microsoft Additional Revenue

The Acquisition Of Activision Blizzard Could Give The Microsoft Additional Revenue

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 02.01.2023 12:41
We could already hear the following words from a Microsoft representative at an Activision conference early last year: "This morning, we announced that we will acquire Activision Blizzard in an all-cash transaction valued at $68.7 billion. This will be the largest acquisition in our history, and we’re investing to create a thriving gaming ecosystem, one where world-class content can more easily reach every gamer across every platform”. This process now appears to be in one of its final stages, but has just been blocked by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) over monopoly allegations. The first pre-trial hearing will take place on 3 January. Will there be a bigger takeover in the tech giant's history? A few words about Activision Blizzard Activision Blizzard (Blizzard) is the world's leading developer of computer and console games. The company was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Santa Monica, California. The company is known for blockbusters such as the Call of Duty series, World of Warcraft and Crash Bandicoot. It has games for a variety of platforms, including PC, game consoles, mobile devices and personal computers. Activision also has a number of publishers and development studios that produce games under the company's brand. The company makes money from sales of its games and from in-game subscriptions and microtransactions, where players can buy additional content or services with real money. Activision Blizzard is also actively involved in the development of eSports and organises a number of eSports tournaments and leagues in which many professional players participate. The company also earns money from ticket sales to these events and from sponsorship and advertising deals. In addition to game sales and participation in e-sports, Activision Blizzard also generates profits from the licensing of its branded games and characters, which are used in various products such as toys, clothing and accessories. Read next: Twitter Did Not Pay $136,260 Rent, Microsoft Reported Its Worst Quarterly Results In Years| FXMAG.COM Legal problems with the takeover In January 2022, Microsoft announced the acquisition of the games developer for US$68.7bn (US$95 per share). The company appears to be in a position to complete this acquisition, currently holding USD 107 billion. In order for this to happen, the company needed approval from 16 regulators from various countries. Source: Conotoxia MT5, Microsoft, Daily Gaming is an important business segment for Microsoft, as it brought in more than $16 billion in the last year. The acquisition of Activision Blizzard could give the company additional revenue and allow it to hold back the company's games on competing platforms, which could make Xbox a monopoly in the gaming market. For the moment, therefore, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has filed a lawsuit to block the acquisition. As the body stated in a release: "Microsoft has already shown that it can and will withhold content from its gaming rivals. Today we seek to stop Microsoft from gaining control over a leading independent game studio and using it to harm competition in multiple dynamic and fast-growing gaming markets." On this call, Microsoft CEO Bobby Kotick wrote in an official letter to the company's employees: "This sounds alarming, so I want to reinforce my confidence that this deal will close. The allegation that this deal is anti-competitive doesn't align with the facts, and we believe we'll win this challenge." It seems we will find out more details after the first pre-trial hearing. The bet Warren Buffett is making At Berkshire Hathaway's (BerkshireHa) annual general meeting in May, legendary investor Warren Buffett announced that he had purchased a share in the games developer. In his own words: "Occasionally I’ll see an arbitrage deal and do it." The billionaire now owns US$4.47 billion worth of shares, representing more than 7 per cent of the company's stock. If the deal had gone through at US$95 per share, buying at the last closing price, we would have had the potential, as much as 24 per cent profit. Source: Conotoxia MT5, Blizzard, Daily Grzegorz Dróżdż, Junior Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71.86% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
The UK Contracts Faster Than Expected in July, Bank of England Still Expected to Hike Rates

Incorporating Slack And Other Apps Into The Salesforce Platform Can Actually Put Buyers Off

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 09.01.2023 12:22
Salesforce said about 80 Fortune 100 companies use Slack. The move to combine an ever-widening range of IT software and services into a single platform could backfire. Salesforce acquired Slack Salesforce, which confirmed plans to acquire Slack in December 2020, was a pioneer in selling cloud-based customer relationship management software on a subscription basis. Salesforce.com Inc has agreed to buy Slack Technologies Inc., a $27.7 billion messaging company, shows how the biggest players in cloud computing are racing to get stronger in the face of the remote work boom during the pandemic. It was the biggest move ever made by Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff, a pioneer in selling software subscriptions that run on remote servers, to transform the company he founded 21 years ago into a broadly established powerhouse in enterprise technology tools. The deal is almost twice the size of Salesforce's largest acquisition to date. It was intended to turn the combined company into a more threatening competitor to Microsoft Corp. The acquisition was aimed at taking over the fast-growing market for communication and collaboration software during the Covid-19 pandemic as employers sent employees home and switched to remote systems. Currently, companies in the market for customer relationship management software - Salesforce's flagship product - do not seem to be thrilled with the addition of messaging and collaboration. Slack can still be purchased as a standalone app, outside of Salesforce CRM tools. Dark side Since the acquisition, Slack's revenue growth has steadily declined. Salesforce reported approximately $402 million in revenue from Slack subscriptions and support in the fiscal third quarter ending Oct. 31. That's an increase of 6.9% quarter-over-quarter, but reflects a slowdown from 9.3% growth in the second quarter and 11.7% growth in the first quarter, based on revenue data from the company's earnings reports. Meanwhile, on Wednesday, Salesforce said it would lay off 10% of its workforce as customers take a more cautious approach to spending. What's more, CIOs also take care of uncertain markets by reducing cloud spending and removing unused applications. Wong said that incorporating Slack and other apps into the CRM platform could actually put buyers off. The CIO and other corporate tech leaders will take a closer look at spending. As the number of functions increases, companies are increasingly forced to hire more technical staff to manage an ever-wider range of tools, which can be prohibitively expensive during economic downturns. Read next: After The Correction, Jacek Ma's Share In Shareholder Votes Will Fall To 6.2%| FXMAG.COM Salesforce and Slack vs. Microsoft Salesforce and Slack, both based in San Francisco, have long been competing with Microsoft. In 2016, Salesforce, after losing to a larger rival in the purchase of LinkedIn Corp., urged regulators to investigate the proposed deal for antitrust laws. The transaction eventually passed regulatory scrutiny. This summer, Slack filed a complaint with the European Union over Microsoft's alleged antitrust behavior, which was using its market dominance to pressure Teams. Salesforce share price As with most tech companies, Salesforce's shares also had a downward trend last year. The lowest share price appeared last month. Salesforce ended 2022 with a price of 132.59. The beginning of the new year brings positive signals. Share prices have increased and are now at 140.51 Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com
Gold Is Showing A Good Sign For Further Drop

Gold Received Support From A Weaker Dollar And Softer Yields

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 10.01.2023 09:29
Summary:  A further squeeze in US equities yesterday, perhaps inspired by the recent drop in US treasury yields, peaked out mid-session and was entirely erased by the end of the day, establishing an important line in the sand on charts ahead of the next important macro event risk on the US economic calendar, the Thursday December CPI release. Interesting session ahead for European equities after yesterday saw major indices in Europe closing at their highest levels since Russia invaded Ukraine.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) S&P 500 futures erased all of their gains in yesterday’s session, declining 1.5% from the intraday highs. The culprit was Fed member Mary Daly’s comments that she expects the policy rate to move to 5% or a bit above. Despite these comments, the US 10-year yield declined downplaying the comments from Daly suggesting the market keeps betting that the Fed will pivot before reaching the 5% level. S&P 500 futures are trading lower again this morning hovering just above the 3,900 level taking the futures back into the upper part of the trading range established since mid-December. The next important event for US equities is the December CPI report on Thursday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HIF3) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hong Kong and Chinese equities retraced after a strong start in the new year. Hang Seng Index edged down 0.3% and CSI300 was nearly flat as of writing. China is exempting value-added tax (VAT) among small businesses till the end of 2023 and is considering a record special debt quota and a wider budget deficit. The news stirred little excitement among investors as expectations for stimulus measures are already high. Chinese leading EV maker, BYD (01211:xhkg) slid 2% following Berkshire Hathaway reduced its stake to 13.97% from 14.06%. FX: Currencies swing with risk sentiment, USDCNH rejects new lows after huge slide The US dollar found support late yesterday after an extension of its recent sell-off on a squeeze higher in equities. EURUSD spilled over to a new high since last June, posting a 1.0761 high water market before easing back as risk sentiment weakened late in the US yesterday, supporting the greenback. A good portion of the EURUSD upside was on a firmer euro, as other USD pairs remain within recent trading ranges, including USDJPY, trading mid-range this morning just below 132.00. Elsewhere, USDCNH extended its remarkable run lower in the Asian session but was quickly gathered up after hitting new lows since last August at 6.76. Several central bankers are out speaking at a conference in Stockholm, Sweden today, while the market awaits the next major US macro event risk, Thursday’s December CPI release. Crude oil (CLG3 & LCOH3) trades steady with Brent hovering around $80 Gains being driven by excitement over a rapid reopening in China with the upcoming Lunar New Year driving a pickup in demand for travel. Near-term weakness in demand will be discussed when the OPEC+ monitoring committee (JMMC) meets on February 1 and despite a drop in Russian exports, due to sanctions, forcing the price of its flagship Urals below $40 per barrel last Friday, the committee could still spring a surprise and recommend another production cut. China meanwhile issued another generous quota for crude imports that will allow 44 non-state-owned refiners to import a total 132 million tons compared with 109 this time last year. Brent trades within a small uptrend with resistance being the 21-day moving average, today at $81.30 and support at $78. Gold (XAUUSD) holds onto its gains Supported by a weaker dollar and softer yields despite comments on Monday from two Fed officials that rates may rise above 5% before pausing and holding for some time. The metal has also been buoyed by the reopening in China with pictures of very crowded gold markets seeing pre-Lunar demand and the PBoC announcing it bought 62 tons of gold during the last two months of the year. However, following two back-to-back weeks of ETF buying, total holdings dropped slightly on Monday as some investors remained cautious. Focus this week on Thursday’s US CPI print with the next major hurdle for gold being $1896, the 61.8% retracement of the 2022 correction, with support now at $1830. HG Copper breaks higher on China demand optimism With the China government considering CNY3.81trn of local government bond issuance in 2023, there is expectations of a further push to infrastructure spending which will continue to bump up industrial metals' prices. Beijing may also bump the budget deficit to 3% of GDP, up from 2.8% last year. Meanwhile, copper inventories for immediate withdrawal from LME warehouses fell 2.8%, the most since 8 December. That leaves stockpiles at just above a 17-year low. HG copper reached $4.05 on Monday with the 50% retracement of the 2022 correction now offering resistance at $4.0850, with support being the 200-day moving average at $3.84. US Treasuries (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) yields ease lower, 10-year close to 3.50% Ahead of three days of treasury auctions starting with today’s auction of 3-year notes, US treasury yields dropped a few basis points all along the curve. The two-year yield is nearing the range low since last September just below 4.15%, while the 10-year benchmark yield has another 10 basis points of range to work with into the cycle low near 3.40%. A 10-year auction is up tomorrow and 30-year T-bond auction on Thursday, with prior auctions for those maturities rather weak. Read next: The Aussie Pair Is Trading Above 0.69$, The Euro Above 1.07, The British Pound Also Benefits From A Weak Dollar| FXMAG.COM What is going on? The labour market remains tight in the Eurozone The Eurostat figures for Eurozone unemployment were out at 6.5 % in November and at 6.0 % for the EU. The figures are stable compared to October. Within the EU, Spain scores the highest official unemployment rate (12.4 %) and Germany and Poland the lowest one (3.0 %). In a working paper published yesterday, ECB economists pointed out the risk of high wage growth in the coming quarters – way above historical patterns.  “This reflects robust labour markets that so far have not been substantially affected by the slowing of the economy, increases in national minimum wages and some catch-up between wages and high rates of inflation”. We tend to disagree with this assessment. Wage growth is of course fuelling inflation in the CEE area. But this is clearly not the case in Western Europe. The likelihood that wages will increase significantly, thus becoming an issue regarding the fight against inflation, is rather low in our view. The United Kingdom is certainly the only European country which may potentially face a wage-price spiral this year.  Commodities supported on optimism over a speedy reopening in China  China will return to “normal” growth soon as Beijing steps up support for households and businesses, according to party secretary of the China’s central bank. That adds to hopes that the government will expand measures to steady the economy and potentially roll out more infrastructure spending that could support industrial metals prices. The HG copper price rose over $4 at on one point, for the first time in six months, with demand likely to rise while inventory stockpiles remain near 17-year lows while the Iron ore (SCOA) price surged 2.4% to a new six month high, $119.80 on expectations for a seasonal post-Lunar new year ramp up in demand.  China reopening, authorities are anxious the nation could run out of power China’s National Development and Reform Commission has issued three notices urging parties to secure and speed up the process of locking in medium and long-term supply deals, to ensure China does not run out of power. China had banned imports of Australian coal for over two years, however, yesterday reports suggested BHP struck a deal and sold two shipments of met coal to China. This highlights that trade relations are improving but also means the price of coal is likely to remain supported as demand is increasing. Japan’s December Tokyo CPI touched the 4% mark Tokyo CPI for December was released this morning, with the headline coming in at 4.0% YoY as expected from a revised 3.7% YoY in November, suggesting price pressures in Japan haven’t started to cool off yet. Tokyo core CPI (ex-food) was higher than expected at 4.0% YoY from 3.6% YoY previously while the core-core measure (ex-food and energy) was also higher at 2.7% YoY from a revised 2.4% YoY in Nov. With Tokyo CPI numbers leading the broader print, there are clear signs that further upside pressures are likely to stay and continue to keep a policy tweak option alive for the BOJ. Russian crude exports coming under pressure Russia’s Urals grade, a far bigger export stream than any other crude that Russia sells, was $37.80 a barrel at the Baltic Sea port of Primorsk on Friday, according to data provided by Argus Media. Global benchmark Brent settled at $78.57 on the same day. Combined flows to China, India and Turkey hit the lowest last week since October, suggesting sanctions and EU embargo may be impacting Russia’s key exports. Microsoft considers $10bn investment into OpenAI The recently published ChatGPT has surprised the world by being quite good at answering all sorts of questions whether they are simple or complex. ChatGPT reached a 1mn users in just one week of beta testing. There have been serious talks about that ChatGPT might be something that could one day upend Google’s classic and very profitable search engine business. This might be the exact opportunity Microsoft is pursuing. What are we watching next? US December CPI up on Thursday The latest CPI data out of the US is the next important test for global markets, which have grown perhaps over-confident that the Fed will not only halt its policy tightening soon after perhaps 50 basis points of further tightening, but will be signalling rate cuts by year-end. The US CPI releases have triggered considerable volatility in recent months, particularly in equity markets on aggressive trading in very short-dated options. The market expects that inflation will actually fall month on month by –0.1% and only rise 6.5% year-on-year versus +7.1% in November. The core, ex Food and Energy number is expected to rise +0.3% MoM and +5.7% YoY vs. +6.0% YoY in November and a peak rate of 6.6% in September. Earnings to watch The Q4 earnings season kicks off this Friday with banking earnings from Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Citigroup with consensus expecting earnings to continue contracting among US banks before coming back to growth this year. The key uncertainty is credit quality in 2023 as it is linked to the degree of a recession or maybe no recession at all in the US economy. With higher interest rates level expectations are that banking revenue will slowly begin to accelerate and if high interest rates persist for an extended period, the longer-term growth for banks could be quite attractive. Overall, the Q4 earnings season is likely going to see an extension of value and tangible companies performing better than intangible-driven companies. Today: Albertsons Thursday: Fast Retailing, Seven & I Friday: DiDi Global, Aeon, Bank of New York Mellon, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, UnitedHealth, BlackRock, Delta Air Lines, First Republic Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 1000 – Sweden Riskbank Governor Thedeen to speak 1010 – Bank of England Governor Bailey, Bank of Canada Governor Macklem, ECB’s Schnabel speak Stockholm 1100 – US Dec. NFIB Small Business Optimism 1400 – US Fed Chair Powell to speak at Riksbank even in Stockholm 1535 – ECB's de Cos, Knot to speak in Stockholm 1700 – EIA's Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO) 1800 – US 3-year Treasury Auction 2130 – API's Weekly US Oil and Fuel Inventory Report 0030 – Australia Nov. Retail Sales 0030 – Australia Nov. CPI Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher   Source: Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – January 10, 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
Canadian Inflation Rises to 3.3%, US Retail Sales Climb: USD/CAD Analysis

Bing Seems Unlikely To Replace Google As The Dominant Search Engine

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 10.01.2023 15:22
It's been over a month since we heard about Chat GPT artificial intelligence. Microsoft Corp (Microsoft) would be in talks with OpenAI to invest $10 billion in it, which could allow the San Francisco-based company to be valued at $29 billion. OpenAI owns the Chat GPT language model, and Microsoft plans to use it to enhance its existing applications and services such as the Bing browser, Word, PowerPoint, Outlook and others. The aim is for Chat GPT to automatically generate text in these applications, allowing it to better compete with Google's AI offering. How might this translate into Microsoft stock? Artificial intelligence that everyone has at their fingertips, or what is Chat GPT? When asked what artificial intelligence is, we could receive the following answer: "Chat GPT is a language model developed by OpenAI that is specifically designed to generate text based on user-entered questions and commands. It is an extension of the GPT (Generative Pre-trained Transformer) model, which was originally developed to generate natural-sounding text. The GPT chat is used to generate answers to questions, translate languages, generate questions, among other things. The model uses large text datasets, which allows it to generate natural-sounding text. One of the important features of Chat GPT is its ability to contextualise questions and generate answers that are appropriate to the context. This allows you to interact with the user in a way that is more user-friendly.  It is difficult to assess the possibilities of Chat GPT at the moment. Every now and then, new ideas hit the web about how to use this technology. It is also hard to say whether the creators themselves are aware of all the possible uses of the bot. OpenAI and Microsoft OpenAI and Microsoft announced a strategic partnership back in 2016, with Azure, Microsoft's cloud platform, becoming the preferred tool for services. The integration of OpenAI technology into Microsoft products has also taken place. In 2017. Microsoft made an investment in OpenAI, and in 2018. OpenAI and Microsoft announced a collaboration to bring OpenAI's GPT-2 model to the Azure platform. This partnership also integrates OpenAI technologies into Office and Dynamics 365 services. In 2019, the companies announced the expansion of their partnership with a new initiative called the OpenAI Internet Scale Language Model (ISLM) Program, which aimed to train the largest language model to date using Azure. Under this, Microsoft has invested US$1bn in the company. Microsoft and OpenAI announced the availability of GPT-3 on the Azure platform and integration with various Microsoft products such as Azure Cognitive Services and Power Virtual Agents. The Information has announced that Microsoft Corp is in talks about the possibility of investing $10 billion in OpenAI, valuing the company at $29 billion. The investment is also expected to include other venture firms, but this information has not yet been officially confirmed by the parties involved. The tech giant's shares do not yet appear to have priced in the possible potential of integrating Chat GPT. If Microsoft's search market share were to double, maintaining a similar margin from advertising as Google, revenue could increase by around $35 billion. This would result in a possible revenue increase of more than 17%. If Google's operating margin is maintained at 27%, this could result in an increase in operating profit of around $9.5 billion and a possible increase in profits of almost 4%. Source: Conotoxia MT5, Microsoft, Daily Would Bing displace Google in the most popular browser? Currently, Google's browser from Alphabet (Alphabet) accounts for 84% of this market, according to Statista data. In comparison, the biggest competitor from Microsoft Bing maintains a 9% share. It seems unlikely that Bing would completely replace Google as the dominant search engine, which has remained the leader of its segment for more than a decade. Google has also invested in artificial intelligence and machine learning, which has helped improve the relevance and accuracy of search results. However, Bing remains a major player in the search engine market and has its advantages. It also has partner integrations that allow it to provide additional features such as Bing Images, Videos, Maps and Shopping etc. Bing has been increasing its market share year on year, most recently from 7.2% to 9%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points, by which it has managed to be an alternative to Google, especially when it comes to enterprise search. Many companies use Bing as their default search engine, some use its API for their internal search systems. In summary, although Bing seems unlikely to replace Google as the dominant search engine in the coming years, it could remain an important player in the market, especially in the context of enterprise search. Source: Conotoxia MT5, Alphabet, Daily Grzegorz Dróżdż, Junior Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76,41% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.   
US Inflation Rises but Core Inflation Falls to Two-Year Low, All Eyes on ECB Rate Decision on Thursday

The World Bank Cut Its Global Growth Forecast To 1.7%, Copper Continues To Get Support From China’s Reopening

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 11.01.2023 09:05
Summary:  Despite Powell’s relative silence on policy outlook, there were other Fed and non-Fed speakers that continued to sound hawkish and raising alarms on inflation. Bonds slumped although equities and USD struggled to find direction in pre-US CPI positioning moves. Some optimism seen on European growth outlook while the World Bank still cautious about a global recession. Australia’s November CPI was hotter-than-expected, aiding further gains for the AUD which is underpinned by China’s reopening and policy stimulus.   What’s happening in markets? Nasdaq 100 (NAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) rise and trade near key technical levels After two Fed speakers reminding markets US rates could rise to over 5%, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon joined the party, saying there’s 50% chance rates could go to 6%, while money managers BlackRock and Fidelity (among others) warned that markets are underestimating the ultimate rate peak. The World Bank slashed growth forecasts in half, saying new adverse shocks could tip the global economy into a recession. It estimates GDP will rise 1.7% this year, (that’s almost half the pace forecast in June). So this sets the stormy tone for the major indices in 2023. That said, JPMorgan's trading desk says there a two-in-three chance Thursday’s inflation data for December (released on US Thursday), could be on the soft side and spark a 1.5-2% S&P500 rally. On Tuesday the major US indices rose in choppy conditions; the Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) rose for the third day, adding 0.9%, edging closer toward its 50 day moving average, the S&P 500 (US500.I) fluctuated around 3,900, which is a possible technical key resistance level. Others signs of caution were see in bonds, as the two-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.25%, the 10-year jumped 9 bps to 3.62%, while gold nudged up, to 8-month highs, $1,881, while the US dollar advanced modestly. Ten of the 11 sectors within the S&P 500 gained on Tuesday, led by communication services, consumer discretionary, and materials. The only sector that declined was consumer staples. US Treasuries (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) sold off on supply Fed Chair Powell’s speech did not have much impact on Treasuries as he did not discuss U.S. monetary policy specifically and only noted generally “restoring price stability when inflation is high can require measures that are not popular in the short term”. Yields on Treasuries rose as European government bonds sold off on supply from Italy and Belgium and ahead of today’s supply from Germany. Yields on 10-year bunds rose 8bps. Traders also sold Treasuries going into the auction of USD40 billion 3-year Treasury notes, bringing yields to the intraday high right before the auction. The 3-year auction went well with strong demand and saw Treasury yields off their intraday highs afterward. Yields on the 2-year finished the session 4bps higher at 4.25% and those on the 10-year were 9bps cheaper at 3.62%. What should you be watching in equities across APAC? As in what's the big picture with China's reopening and what does it mean to investors? The Australian share market (ASXSP200.I) opened 0.7% higher, with other APAC markets expected to also open most higher. Japan’s futures suggest the Nikkei could rise the most across APAC today. But big picture, we think the most important thing for investor right now, is to consider, that… China’s economic recovery could be the dictator for the course of commodity assets, travel, and property. Not just China tech and consumer spending. China’s pivot away from its Covid Zero stance, led by a sooner-than-expected January 8 lifting of quarantines for cross-border travel, is poised to fast track its international air-transport recovery in 2023. But China’s recovery is not just about travel reviving. Chinese developers have also been seen kicking off recoveries in early 2023, having hit a bottom for contracted sales last year. As China’s economic recovery surges, stocks remain supported and are indeed rallying. A similar trend occurred in 2020 when mainland China reopened after a series of lockdowns following a breakout in Wuhan. But, reflecting on global trends, you’d think China has a better chance of putting Covid behind it this time around… which could support commodities and travel in particular. But, let’s see. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HIF3) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) trod water After a strong first week in the new year, Hong Kong and China stocks trod water on Tuesday. Hang Seng Index edged down 0.3% and CSI300 was nearly flat. Bilibili (09626) fell 4.3% after the company issued ADSs at a 7% discount to buy back convertible bonds. Chinese automakers rallied, especially EV names. Li Auto (02015:xhkg), Nio (09866:xhkg), and XPeng (09868:xhkg) surged each surged over 6%. BYD (01211:xhkg) pared all its initial weaknesses following the news that Berkshire Hathaway had reduced its stake to 13.97% from 14.06% and gained 2.9%. According to its CEO, Li Auto’s Model L7 is gaining market shares from Tesla’s Model 3 and Model Y. BYD reportedly will raise the prices of its EVs, as opposed to Tesla’s price cuts in China. Social media stories speculate that some Chinese cities are going to relax passenger car licensing restrictions in order to boost consumption. Shares of Geely (00175:xhkg) were up 6%, GAC (02238:xhkg) +3.1%, and BAIC (01958:xhkg) up 2.2%. Macao casino operators outperformed with Sands (01928:xhkg) rising 4.8%, MGM (02282:xhkg) up 3.6%, and SJM (00880:xhkg) up 3.1%. In A-shares, automakers, retailing, electric equipment, and beauty care names gained while financial, petrochemical, and steeling makers were among the biggest losers. FX: Dollar range-bound as it eyes the US CPI Lack of data and anu relevant commentary from Fed Chair Powell left the USD struggling to find direction in the pre-CPI trade. EURUSD was the outperformer, with better growth outlook underpinning, but it continued to find resistance at 1.0760. USDJPY is back above 132 amid higher yields, while AUDUSD rose back above 0.69 following the higher-than-expected November CPI. USDCNH also still below 6.7900. The Aussie dollar rallies after hotter than expected CPI and retail data The Aussie dollar rose 0.3% to 0.6911 US, with inflation and retail sales coming in hotter than expected, which shows the RBA has room to keep rising rates, and as such this theoretically supports the AUD. Core or trimmed CPI (which the RBA looks at) rose from 5.3% YoY to 5.6% YoY in November - hotter than 5.5% YoY expected. Retail sales rose 1.4% in November, beating the 0.6% expected, while also importantly showing Aussie retail sales strongly recovered from the October drop in sales. Some traders have a view the Aussie dollar will push up over the medium term, in lieu of China’s reopening notion which is likely to add to Australia’s GDP, with hot sauce coming from China buying Australian coal for the first time in two years. Crude oil (CLG3 & LCOH3) choppy amid China optimism and inventory build Crude oil prices wobbled on Tuesday as the market remained buoyed by optimism of China demand recovery. European session was supported by upbeat Eurozone outlook. Meanwhile, EIA raised its forecast for demand growth in 2023 to 1.05mb/d. However, it also expects US output to rise to meet this demand, with US shale oil providing the bulk of the gains. The API report showed a strong inventory build of 14.9mn barrels in crude as against expectations of a 2.2mn draw, and focus now turns to EIA figures today. WTI futures touched $76/barrel before sliding back below $75, while Brent reversed from $81. Copper continues to march higher Copper continues to get support from China’s reopening and policy support to fuel economic recovery. Gains were further boosted by Chair Powell staying away from a pushback on easing financial conditions, and the weaker USD as a result. Having retraced close to 50% of the 2022 sell off, HG copper is now seeing resistance ahead of $4.08 (LME $8900), potentially opening up some scope for a correction to check the strength of support. Focus in that regard being $3.84, the 200 DMA, the break above which started this latest runup.  Read next: The EUR/USD Pair Is Still Above 1.0700$, The USD/JPY Pair Was Little Changed| FXMAG.COM What to consider? Powell stays away from policy guidance With some expectations that Powell would likely pushback on the easing financial conditions, equity markets celebrated the lack of any clear guidance on policy direction. Fed Chair Powell did not comment on the current US economic or monetary policy outlook in his prepared remarks, only stating that restoring price stability when inflation is high can require measures not popular in the short term. The pushback on market’s rate cut expectations from Kashkari (voter) was more direct, saying that "They are going to lose the game of chicken." Bowman, also a voter, was also relatively hawkish with comments hinting at more work to do on inflation. When a sufficiently restrictive rate level is reached, the Fed needs to hold the policy rate there "for some time". The story is shifting on Europe Softer energy prices, the lack of black-out and resilient hard data (notably in Germany) are pushing forecasters to review their 2023 recession calls. Goldman Sachs is the first international bank to drastically revised upward its growth forecasts, from minus 0.1 % in 2023 to 0.6 %. Said differently, the U.S. based bank does not expect a recession in the eurozone this year anymore. Early Q4 indications are out this Friday with the preliminary 2022 FY growth estimate. This should certainly confirm a milder-then-expected economic downturn. A mild recession (meaning drop in GDP of 0.1 or 0.2 %) is still our baseline this year. But we agree that the economy is surprisingly resilient. We also believe there will be no extreme macro and market events in 2023 – which could be positive from a growth perspective. If the economy performs much better, this will however give ECB policymakers more confidence in hiking rates as laid out in December by Christine Lagarde. World Bank warns of a global recession The World Bank cut its global growth forecast to 1.7% this year, down from an estimate of 3.0% in June. This marks the third weakest pace of global growth in nearly 30 years, overshadowed by only the 2009 and 2020 downturns. Growth estimate for 2024 was also slashed, down to 2.7%, as persistent inflation and high interest rates weigh. Meanwhile, the agency urged for global action to mitigate the risks of a global recession and debt distress. Growth of aggregate financing slowed to 9.6% Y/Y in China while loans to corporate picked up In December, the growth of outstanding aggregate financing, the broad measure of credit in China, decelerated to 9.6% Y/Y from 10.0% Y/Y in November. New aggregate financing declined to RMB1,310 billion in December (below consensus RMB1,850 billion) from RMB1,987 billion in November, dragged by a decline in new bond issuance from local governments and a net bond redemption by corporate. New RMB loans rose to RMB1,400 billion (above consensus RMB1,200 billion) from RMB1,214 billion in November and were also above RMB1,130 billion in December 2021. The growth of RMB loans picked up to 11.1% Y/Y in December from 11.0% in November. The better-than-expected growth in RMB loans was driven by new loans to the corporate sector which rose to RMB1,264 billion in December from RMB884 billion in November and above RMB 662 billion a year ago, as the Chinese authorities had asked banks to extend credits to support the housing market and other key industries. New loans to households came in weak, falling to RMB175 billion in December from RMB263 billion in November and RMB372 billion in December a year ago. The daily number of domestic flights in China rose to over 10,000, the first time since August China’s Lunar New Year travel season started last Saturday 7 January with 9,454 flights or a 2.26% growth from the first day of the same travel season last year. The number of daily flights increased to 10,123 on 8 January, an 13.65% increase from the same period last year and above 10,000 for the first time since August 2022. China suspends short-term visas for visitors from Japan and South Korea In retaliation to travel restrictions imposed on visitors from China, China stops issuing short-term visas for visitors from Japan and South Korea. Restrictions from both sides could be a temporary setback to the trend of the reopening of the Chinese economy but it is likely to be resolved in the near term. Microsoft may invest USD10 billion in OpenAI Microsoft is reportedly in discussion to make an investment of USD 10 billion in Open AI, the creator of AI bot ChatGPT. This would be Microsoft’s second investment, after acquiring a USD1 billion stake in 2019. Microsoft is expected to integrate ChatGPT into the software giant’s search engine.   For a look ahead at markets this week – Read/listen to our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.   Source: Market Insights Today: Powell’s silence on policy puts the focus back on US CPI – 11 January 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
EUR/USD: Looking beyond the market’s trust issues with the Fed and ECB

The Euro, The Aussie Gain On Hawkish Central Bank Expectations, Crude Oil Under Pressure

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 11.01.2023 12:29
US equities first struggled to find direction, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell kept mum on monetary policy in Stockholm yesterday, worried about the World Bank’s morose growth projections, but then turned north on hope that a softer US inflation print tomorrow could boost the Fed doves and enhance appetite in US equities. Gold Gold benefits from softer US yields, and softer dollar on expectation that a softer inflation could soften the Fed’s policy stance. World Bank The World Bank predicts a global growth of about 1.7% this year, about half the pace it predicted last summer. Although the slowing economic growth softens the rate expectations – and boost equities, a weaker global economy should weigh on corporate profits and should not let the rally run too far. Forex In the FX, European Central Bank (ECB) officials stand behind their hawkish view despite the latest softening in inflation. The EURUSD pushes higher as the positive pressure is the fruit of the divergence between softening Fed expectations and hawkish ECB bets. Australia In Australia, inflation advanced more than expected to 7.3% in Q4 fueling the expectation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could opt for another 25bp hike in its February meeting. Energy Finally, in energy, crude oil is dragging its feet below the $75 this morning and will likely remain under pressure as yesterday’s API data showed that the US oil inventories rose by a little less than 15 mio barrels last week as the refining activity returned to normal following weather-related shutdowns. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:23 Stocks rallied on softer US inflation bets 1:58 ‘Be careful what you wish for!’ 3:20 World Bank cuts growth forecasts… 3:53 … but Goldman calls off the Euro recession!? 5:48 Euro, Aussie gain on hawkish central bank expectations 6:55 Crude oil under pressure on 15-mio US stockpile build 7:34 Gold benefits from softer dollar, yields 7:56 Microsoft could be on a good path with ChatGPT! Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Fed #inflation #expectations #USD #EUR #GBP #XAU #earnings #season #Microsoft #ChatGPT #tech #stocks #World #Bank #Goldman #Sachs #growth #forecast #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH        
Why India Leads the Way in Economic Growth Amid Global Slowdown

Alibaba And Its Share Buyback Program Which Is Supported By Ryan Cohen, Microsoft Corp. Plans To Incorporate AI Tools

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 17.01.2023 11:44
Activist investor Ryan Cohen Activist investor Ryan Cohen is pushing the Chinese e-commerce giant to accelerate and further strengthen its share buyback program. Microsoft Corp. plans to incorporate AI tools such as ChatGPT into all its products and make them available as platforms for other companies. Alibaba Share buybacks Share buybacks can support equities by reducing the supply of traded shares and increasing earnings per share. Investors often treat them as a bullish signal because they suggest that executives are optimistic about their company's prospects and confident about its financial situation. Cohen, with a net worth of over $2.5 billion and a stock portfolio that includes Apple Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. and Citigroup Inc., first contacted Alibaba's management in August to voice his opinion that the company's stock is deeply undervalued based on his belief that he could achieve double-digit sales and nearly 20% free cash flow growth over the next five years. Cohen also expressed confidence that Apple, in which he owns more than $800 million, could provide a roadmap for Alibaba. The Active Investor also expressed admiration for management's ability to drive earnings growth while accumulating high-quality assets. While the stakes are small compared to Alibaba's market capitalization of nearly $300 billion, Cohen has a large following among individual investors who often follow in his footsteps. Following Cohen's initial announcement, Alibaba announced in November that its board of directors had approved expanding the company's share buyback program by $15 billion to $40 billion. Cohen told Alibaba's board of directors that the share buyback plan could be increased by another $20 billion to about $60 billion. Alibaba shares rose about 67% from a multi-year low in October. At that time, the share price was 63.22. After that, they increased from November, and the new year brought positive signals and the BABA price reached 117.01. OpenAI and Microsoft OpenAI has been at the center of a recent spike in artificial intelligence in the tech industry, and Microsoft is in advanced talks to increase investment in the startup. Speaking on Tuesday at the Wall Street Journal panel at the World Economic Forum's annual event in the Swiss mountains, Nadella said his company will quickly move to commercialize OpenAI tools, the research lab behind the ChatGPT chatbot, as well as the Dall-E 2 image generator. Nadella said in in an interview that the new excitement about tools is due to the rapid growth in their capabilities last year, which he said he expects to continue. Those in office jobs engaged in so-called knowledge-based work should embrace the new tools rather than assume they'll steal their jobs, Nadella said, citing the example of computer software developers now using tools to help them generate some of the code they write. Microsoft's CEO was also optimistic about the wider economic potential of tools like ChatGPT that can quickly generate fluent-sounding text based on short queries or prompts. Microsoft recently said it was giving more customers access to the software behind these tools through its Azure cloud computing platform. After falling to the level of 222.31, Microsoft stock prices are rising and recently reached the level of 239.18. Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com
Not much relief, after all: Markets React to Political Uncertainties and Hawkish Fed Rhetoric - 05.10.2023

Whirlpool Decided To Transfer Part Of Its Operations In The Europe To Turkish Arcelik AS, Layoffs In Microsoft Will Be Continue

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 18.01.2023 11:52
The war in Ukraine is hindering the operation of many companies in the European region. As a result, Whirlpool decided to transfer a significant part of its operations in the region to a new entity controlled by a Turkish equipment manufacturer. Since the beginning of the new year, many tech companies have narrowed their ranks as the pandemic, which has caused an increase in the number of employees, has died down. Concerns about inflation and a slowdown in the global economy have encouraged leaders in the tech sector to prepare for worse times by reducing costs through layoffs. Whirlpool Whirlpool Corp is transferring a significant portion of its regional operations to a new entity controlled by a Turkish equipment manufacturer. The new company, whose majority shareholder will be the Turkish company Arcelik AS, is expected to have total sales of USD 6.5 billion. Benton Harbor, Michigan, equipment maker will own 25% of the new entity after the transaction closes Whirlpool executives said in April they were beginning a strategic review of the company's operations in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, which accounted for 23% of the company's total revenue in 2021. The Russian invasion of Ukraine hurt demand and drove up costs in the region. Whirlpool, like other manufacturers, struggled more broadly with weakening consumer demand and rising material, energy and other costs. The company cut production by 35% in the third quarter of 2022 to reduce inventory, and said its North American operations faced an unspecified fourth-quarter supply chain disruption that has since been resolved. In an announcement of its 2022 financial results, due to be released on January 30, the company said on Tuesday that it expects full-year net sales to fall by 10% from 2021. The deal left Whirlpool with a loss of $1.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022, including a $1.1 billion write-down for the company's operations in Europe, Middle East and Africa and $400 million for currency adjustments. The company is expected to hurt its full-year earnings per share in 2022 by $26 to $28. WHR shares in the new year soared until they reached 154. For the last few days, Whirlpool Corp shares have been trading above 154, close to 155, and 154.90 to be exact. Microsoft and layoffs Microsoft had more than one round of layoffs last year, but didn't announce how many jobs it cut. The round, which began in July, affected less than 1% of the total workforce of the company of more than 200,000 people. Sky News previously reported plans to announce layoffs this week. Microsoft's expected move comes a week ahead of the scheduled listing of its latest quarterly earnings. The layoffs affected companies across the industry. Amazon.com Inc. announced it was laying off 18,000 people. This month, business software provider Salesforce Inc. announced plans to cut 8,000 employees, or 10% of the global workforce, marking the largest job cut in the company's history. On Tuesday, Unity Software Inc. said it was laying off 284 employees. The provider of video game and other application development tools had previously announced layoffs in June, when it cut around 225 jobs. Microsoft is seeing positive interest this year as it negotiates to increase investment in its vibrant AI startup OpenAI. Microsoft shares continue to climb this year, reaching 240.35. Today, for the first time this year, they fell to 239.85 Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.cm
Reserve Bank of New Zealand: Kenny Fisher says he expects a 25bp rate hike on May 24th

Jacinda Ardern Has Resigned As Prime Minister Of New Zealand, Crude Oil Extended Wednesday's Steep Decline

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 19.01.2023 09:43
Summary:  Yesterday saw a sharp reversal in risk sentiment across the board, with US equities in a steep slide and the USD higher, even as treasury yields dipped. The slide in sentiment came after weak US Retail Sales and other data - is bad news finally bad news again? The selling came in at a key technical area after the recent rally, making for a compelling bearish reversal. Elsewhere, the Japanese yen bounced back across the board overnight, just after BoJ-inspired weakness.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) fall over 1% on recession fears U.S. equities opened higher initially as bond yields tumbled on a dovish Bank of Japan and much weaker than expected prints on U.S. retail sales, industrial production, and producer prices. Comments from the Fed’s Bullard in a Wall Street Journal interview about his preference of keeping the pace of rate hike at 50bps at the February FOMC triggered a reversal around mid-day and saw U.S. stocks plunge during the afternoon session. The weak economic data and the risk of the Fed overdoing it on rate hikes troubled equity investors. On the close the Nasdaq 100 was down 1.3% while the S&P 500 slipped 1.6%. All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 declined, with the consumer staples sector falling the most to finish the session 2.7% lower. In the Fed’s Beige Book released on Wednesday, U.S. retailers said they were having difficulties in passing through cost increases to consumers. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HIF3) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Following the decline in U.S. stocks overnight, Hong Kong and mainland Chinese stocks opened lower but managed to pare losses and more. Hang Seng Index and CSI300 edged up modestly in the early afternoon local time. Chinese property developer stocks outperformed while technology names were among the laggards. Hang Seng TECH Index dropped more than 1% on profit taking ahead of the 3-day Lunar New Year holiday next week. Chinese social platform, Kuaishou (01024:xhkg) plunged nearly 6% after a co-founder sold shares. FX: US dollar posts strong rally on weak US data; JPY roars stronger still overnight The weak US data yesterday (more below) took US treasury yields sharply lower all along the curve, but with risk sentiment sliding badly on the news, the USD rallied sharply rather than selling off on the implications for less Fed tightening at coming meetings. This suggests investors may finally be fretting the risk of an incoming recession. The USD strength eased overnight as the Japanese yen, already beginning to reverse to the strong side by late US hours despite the dovish BoJ earlier in the day (the JPY traditionally thrives most on falling global yields and weak sentiment/recession fears) rallied hard, handily outpacing the US dollar and ripping stronger across the board, particularly against the hapless AUD, which was hit by weak December employment data overnight. Crude oil (CLG3 & LCOH3) tumbles badly on sluggish US data Crude oil extended Wednesday’s sharp losses which occurred after poor US economic data triggered fresh growth concerns. The move lower was strengthened by technical and momentum traders getting wrong-footed after having bought an upside break earlier in the day. A reopening of China has been the main supporting focus in recent weeks but with activity there now slowing ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, traders turned their attention elsewhere and did not like what they saw. Also, the API reported another chunky inventory rise of 7.6 million barrels, well above the 2-million-barrel rise expected by the EIA later today. Finally, IEA delivered a bullish outlook for 2023 demand as China recovers and air travel rebounds. Gold ended lower for a third day, but bids keep coming Gold’s newfound strength continues to be tested but so far, the metal has shown resilience and found fresh bids on any pullback. Yesterday it ended lower for a third day, but still above $1900 with traders (many of which are algorithmic, and machine based) taking their directional input from the US bonds market and not least the dollar. Traders have built positions in the belief we will see peak rates soon in the US, a development that triggered very strong rallies on three previous occasions during the past 20 years. However, as long the market trusts the FOMC will deliver lower inflation, major institutional investors are likely side lined, something that shows up in ETF holdings which remain near a two-year low. Support at $1896 followed by $1855, the 21-day moving average. US Treasury yields lower on weak US data, BoJ standing pat (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) Treasuries surged in price and yields collapsed on dovish outcomes from the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting. Treasury yields then took a further dive following the release of larger-than-expected declines in US retail sales and industrial production as well as a bigger-than-expected 0.5% month-on-month fall in the Producer Price Index in December. The hawkish comments from Fed’s Bullard about keeping the February hike at 50bps was ignored by Treasuries despite being picked up by traders as a reason to fade the rally in equities. The result from the USD12 billion 20-year Treasury bond auction was strong. The 2-year trades this morning at 4.04% while the 10-year yield has dropped to a four-month low at 3.32%, with the 2-10 curve still very inverted at -72.5 bps. What is going on? US December Retail Sales and other US data disappoint The December US Retail Sales report for December was the second consecutive monthly report to disappoint expectations, with the headline falling –1.1% MoM vs. -0.9% expected and despite the negative November revision to –1.0% (vs. -0.6% originally). The ex Auto and Gas number was also disappointing at –0.7% vs. 0.0% expected and also with a negative revision for November to –0.5% (from –0.2%). These are particularly negative numbers given still high inflation in the US as they are not inflation-adjusted. Elsewhere, the US PPI data was softer than expected at –0.5% MoM and ex Food and Energy at +0.1%, with the YoY dropping to +6.2%/5.5% vs. 6.8%/5,6% expected. Finally, December US Industrial Production fell 0.7% MoM vs. 0.1% expected, with a negative revision of November data to –0.6% from -0.2%. New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern shocks with resignation announcement Her resignation was announced after five and a half years in power and came in the context of announcing an October 14 election this year. She will step down no later than February 7. Her Labour Party is trailing the opposition National Party slightly in the polls. Ardern said she hadn’t the energy to continue as PM. Microsoft to lay off 10,000 employees ... as a part of it what it considers a set of cost-cutting measures outlined in a securities filing yesterday. CEO Satya Nadella cited a downward shift in demand for digital services and fears of  a recession. “...we saw customers accelerate their digital spend during the pandemic, we’re no seeing them optimize their digital spend to do more with less.” The layoff are just under 5% of the company’s global workforce. Rising volume of trades on Euronext Paris In recent sessions, we have noticed a strong rise in the volume of trades and a sharp increase of volatility for several small and medium companies listed on Euronext Paris. Target Spot (which connect brands to their audience through a premium portfolio of publishers across digital audio) has experienced a huge rebound in recent sessions (+28 % on a weekly basis) driven by an increase in the volume of trades. This company can be considered as a penny stock (the stock was exchanged at 50 cents two weeks ago). There is also a jump in speculation for companies using dilutive financing in the form of OCABSAs ((bonds convertible into shares with share subscription warrants). In October 2022, the French stock market authorities, the AMF warned against the risks associated to this financing, especially for retail investors. There are several listed companies in that case at the Paris stock market, such as Avenir Telecom (manufacture of mobile phones) and Spineway (implants and surgical instruments). Usually, stay away from any kind of ultra-dilutive funding. Fed speakers continue to be mixed, with the non-voters staying hawkish Fed’s Bullard (non-voter) said his dot plot forecast for 2023 is just above the Fed's median of 5.1% at 5.25-5.50% and that Fed policy is not quite in restrictive territory, reiterating it needs to be over 5% at least. Bullard added the Fed should move as rapidly as it can to get over 5% and then react to data, noting his preference is for a 50bps hike at the next meeting (against the consensus 25bps). Loretta Mester (non-voter) said further rate hikes are still needed to decisively crush inflation and we are not at 5% yet, nor above it, which she thinks is going to be needed given her economic projections. She believes the Fed's key rate should rise a "little bit" above the 5.00-5.25% range that the Fed median implies. Harker (voter) said Fed needs to get FFR above 5%, but its good to approach the terminal rate slowly. Dallas President Lorie Logan (voter) spoke later as well, and also hinted at a slower pace of rate hikes. She said she wants a 25bp rate hike, not 50, at the February 1 FOMC meeting. She said if slower rate hike pace eases financial conditions, then the Fed can offset that by gradually raising rates to a higher level than previously expected. What are we watching next? Norway Central Bank the latest to indicate end-of-cycle hike today? The Norwegian central bank was the first G10 central bank to hike rates back in 2021, but maintained a curiously slow pace of hikes relative to other central banks. The market is divided on whether the Norges Bank is set to hike by 25 basis points today, with most believing that even if it doesn’t, the following meeting in late March will see a hike, probably the last of the cycle for now. Earnings to watch The Q4 earnings season continues today with two big earnings reports from two very different companies: the huge US consumer products company Procter and Gamble (Market Cap $350B) and streaming services provider Netflix, which has enjoyed a more than 100% rally off the lows by rejuvenating subscriber growth and rolling out plans to launch advertising on its platform for the first time. Still, that stock is down more than 50% from the bubble peak in 2021. Today: Procter & Gamble, Netflix Friday: Investor, Sandvik, Ericsson, Schlumberger Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0900 – Norway Rate decision 1330 – US Dec Housing Starts and Building Permits 1330 – US Initial Jobless Claims 1330 – Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 1330 – Canada Dec. Terante/National Bank Home Price Index 1530 – EIA Natural Gas Storage Change 1600 – EIA's Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report (delayed) 1815 – US Fed Vice Chair Brainard to speak on economic outlook 2330 – Japan Dec. National CPI 0001 – UK Jan. GfK Consumer Confidence Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – January 19, 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
A Further Rise In Gold Is Very Likely, The Dovish Expectations Are Feeding Well Into The Bond Markets

A Further Rise In Gold Is Very Likely, The Dovish Expectations Are Feeding Well Into The Bond Markets

Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya 19.01.2023 13:41
There was good, and less good news for investors on the wire yesterday.   The latest PPI data showed that the producer price inflation in the US fell way faster than expected. The expectation was a slowdown in factory gate inflation from 7.3% to 6.8%. And the data printed a sexy 6.2% for December – which meant a 0.5% retreat instead of a 0.1% decline. Core PPI also slowed. That's the good news.   The bad news is the US retail sales fell 1.1% in December – marking the biggest monthly drop of last year.   On the jobs front, Microsoft said that it will cut 10'000 jobs while Amazon started cutting jobs in the context of 18'000 job cuts announced a couple of weeks earlier. Exactly what the Fed wants.  The bad news would normally be good news for the stocks, if the Federal Reserve (Fed) members weren't there to spoil the dovish Fed expectations by saying that the US rates should go higher. Loretta Mester said more hikes are needed, and James Bullard reminded that the rates would have to stay 'on the tighter side this year' to help the Fed reach its 2% inflation goal.  S&P500 is an easy short at the current levels  The S&P500 didn't like the mix of slowing economic data, and still a hawkish Fed, and dived more than 1.50% yesterday.   And traders didn't hesitate much sending the index below the 200-DMA, and below the bearish trend building since the start of 2022, given that there is nothing encouraging for stock investors out there, other than the softening Fed expectations – which don't help filling the company's coffers.  Stock/bond divergence is happening!  The dovish expectations are, however, feeding well into the bond markets: the US 2-year yield is diving toward the 4% mark, while the 10-year yield hit 3.30%, the lowest level since September.   This means that the positive divergence in the sovereign space, compared with the stocks, is happening. Investors return to US sovereign bonds on expectation that the Fed would soften its policy due to recession jitters, while stock markets don't benefit from the expectation of softer financial conditions, as slowing economic activity is bad for profits.   And speaking of profits, Procter & Gamble and Netflix are due to release their Q4 earnings today!   Crude oil swings between gains and losses  US crude advanced past the $82 mark on Chinese reopening optimism and IEA predicting that the oil demand will hit a record in 2023, before falling back below the $80 on recession pessimism, and the news that the US crude inventories jumped by 7.6 million barrels last week, while the expectation was a drop in inventories.   The more official EIA data is due today, and the expectation of a 2.1 million barrel fall will likely disappoint the bulls. But I continue believing that the bulls will take the upper hand and carry the rally higher, though on a bumpy road.   Falling stocks + falling yields: a boon for gold diggers  Gold is bid above the $1900 level, and the positive pressure is supported by lower US yields – which decrease the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest-bearing yellow metal, and the softer US dollar.   The overbought conditions hint that we could see a minor downside correction in the short run, but levels between $1855 and 1900 are interesting for amassing gold.   There is potential for a further rise in gold, especially if the stocks fall, while the US yields continue easing. 
US Stocks Extend Rally Amid Optimism Over Fed's Monetary Policy

For The First Time Since Last April The EUR/USD Pair Is Above 1.09

Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya 23.01.2023 10:20
The week started slowly in Asia, as many markets were closed due to the Chinese New Year holiday. But those that were open benefited from the positive vibes from the US markets last Friday.  US equities rally, led by tech stocks  The S&P500 rallied 1.89% and flirted with the 200-DMA again, and closed the week a stone's throw from the ceiling of the 2022-to-date bearish trend.   Nasdaq did even better. The index rallied 2.86%, boosted by a well-deserved 8.50% rally from Netflix - which not only announced better-than-expected results in the Q4, but also a mouth-watering beat on the subscription growth end, with 7.7 mio new subscribers – a number that we thought we would hear only during a pandemic!   Google, on the other hand, jumped 5.72%, but for a less glamorous reason. The company said it will fire 6% of its workforce, which is around 12'000 jobs globally. Investors heard 'yes, that will clearly improve the cloud profitability!'   In total, Amazon, Microsoft and Google will be cutting 40'000 jobs.   Fed's quiet period  The quiet period for Federal Reserve (Fed) officials will help us digest what has been said over the past weeks.   In summary, we know that the Fed will further slow the size of its rate hikes in the coming months. $  But the fact that the Fed will raise by only 25bp next meeting doesn't mean that it won't continue hiking the rates. The rates will likely go above 5% in the Q1.  Focus on earnings  Microsoft, Johnson&Johnson, General Electric,Texas Instruments, Intel, Tesla Mastercard, Visa, Chevron and American Express are among companies that will go to the earnings confessional this week.  Big Tech earnings projections are down by about 5% since October.   Yet, expectations went sufficiently low that there is plenty of room for a positive surprise, as has been the case with Netflix.   FX & energy  The dollar kicked off the week under pressure. The EURUSD already hit the 1.09 mark early in the session, for the first time since last April, and is just a couple of pips away from the major 50% retracement on 2021-2022 selloff.   PMI data due tomorrow could confirm that the European economies took a softer hit thanks to mild start to the winter, and cheaper energy prices as a result of it.   And sufficiently strong PMI data, combined to the negative pressure in the US dollar into the Fed meeting, could help the EURUSD take a chance on the 1.10 resistance in the coming sessions.   In energy, crude oil posted its second straight week of gains on Friday, as the Chinese reopening story and prospects of higher global demand, and around 1 mbpd gap between supply and demand outweighed the recession fears.   The latest rebound in European nat gas prices, and the fact that we now have cold and snow in Europe could also tilt the balance further to the upside.   The barrel of American crude spent last week above the 50-DMA, now around $78pb, but couldn't clear the 100-DMA, which stands around $82pb.   The next target for the oil bulls is a move above the $82pb, for a potential extension of gains toward the $87/88 range.  
Bitcoin Extends Rally, Microsoft & Tesla Will Report Earnings This Week

Bitcoin Extends Rally, Microsoft & Tesla Will Report Earnings This Week

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 23.01.2023 10:29
US stocks, and Bitcoin rallied on Friday, boosted by gains in tech stocks on surprisingly strong Netflix results, Google’s job cut announcement and dovish hints from Federal Reserve (Fed) members. Earnings This week, the quiet period for Federal Reserve (Fed) officials will help us digest what has been said over the past weeks and focus on earnings!Microsoft, Johnson&Johnson, General Electric,Texas Instruments, Intel, Tesla Mastercard, Visa, Chevron and American Express are among companies that will go to the earnings confessional this week. Big Tech earnings projections are down by about 5% since October. Yet, expectations went sufficiently low that there is plenty of room for a positive surprise, as has been the case with Netflix. Forex In the FX, the US dollar kicked off the week under pressure. The EURUSD already hit the 1.09 mark early in the session. Cable advanced to 1.2450. The barrel of American crude posted its second straight week of advance, though the 100-DMA hasn’t been cleared… just yet! Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:45 US stocks reverse losses 2:29 Bitcoin extends rally 3:14 Digesting Fed expectations into the FOMC meeting 4:40 Microsoft & Tesla will report earnings this week 6:07 EURUSD hits 1.09; sterling, Loonie are also better bid against USD 8:13 Crude oil eyes $82pb resistance Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Microsoft #Tesla #earnings #Fed #expectations #USD #EUR #GBP #CAD #crude #oil #Bitcoin #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH
Nasdaq 100 posted a new one year high. S&P 500 ended the day unchanged

The price of Tesla has gained over the past week as we approach its earnings release. The price of the stock climbed 12.50% over a 5-day period

Michalis Efthymiou Michalis Efthymiou 23.01.2023 10:39
Eurozone inflation slowed down and we're looking forward to the next ECB meeting, which may provide the markets with a 50bp rate hike. Bitcoin has been trading higher recently, while this week the hot topics this week are Tesla and Microsoft earnings. We asked Michalis Efthymiou, Market Analyst at NAGA, about his view on ECB, the leading crypto and tech companies. Let's find out what Michalis told FXMAG.COM Most economists continue to advise a 50 basis point hike,  as the ECB lags behind their competitors in terms of their Main Refinancing Rate and Inflation goals The EU inflation rate has indeed significantly declined from 10.6% to 9.2% over the space of 2-months. However, it is important not to compare the monetary policy of the UK and the US with the European Central Bank. The US is now predicted to lower the size and pace of their rate hikes for the reason that inflation has declined to 6.5% and the Federal Fund Rate is already at 4.5%. This is 2% higher than the ECB, which is currently lagging behind both the Fed and the Bank of England.Therefore most economists continue to advise a 50 basis point hike,  as the ECB lags behind their competitors in terms of their Main Refinancing Rate and Inflation goals. Currently, EU officials are keeping to their 50 basis point stance, and this has clearly priced into the Euro. Read next: For The First Time Since Last April The EUR/USD Pair Is Above 1.09| FXMAG.COMOn a last note, it is also important not to disregard the fact that over a third of the Monetary Policy Board during December’s meeting voted for a 75 basis point hike. In addition, the risks of a recession in the EU have also significantly declined over the past month. Bitcoin has given back some of its spectacular gains, but its price is still elevated. What do you expect from the leading crypto in the near future? Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, in general, are volatile, so a strong retracement is not rare and should not be viewed as harsh as other instruments. The demand for the cryptocurrency market is growing, and this can be seen in the overall market capitalization. The market cap has increased to over $1.05 Trillion, which is the highest this year. Bitcoin’s demand had also increased compared to other competitors increasing to 41.4% share.The price of Bitcoin has been influenced by two main factors. The weakening monetary policy and the lower risk of recession. Overall this can trigger a higher risk appetite and investor confidence. However, traders should be cautious that the FTX bankruptcy has left the sector on shaky grounds. Genesis Global Capital is also currently preparing for bankruptcy which again does not support the industry’s confidence levels.Lastly, over the past 24 hours, the crypto market value measured only $52 billion, which is 13% lower and triggered a slight decline yesterday. This may be related to the lack of volume on a Sunday, but traders should monitor and ensure this does not develop into a trend. Some big names will report earnings soon. What do you expect from Microsoft and Tesla? The price of Tesla has gained over the past week as we approach its earnings release. The price of the stock climbed 12.50% over a 5-day period. For the fourth quarter of 2022, the company’s Earning Per Share is expected to increase slightly compared to the 3rd quarter. The figure is expected to read $1.13 while the revenue is expected to increase from $21.88 billion to $24.42B. So we can see from the figures that the report is expected to show a better quarter compared to October.However, investors should also be cautious about the latest company sales figures, which show 55,796 cars were sold in December. The figure is the lowest in 5 months and could concern some investors. Microsoft, on the other hand, is generally performing better than Tesla, with higher Earnings Per Share. It should also be noted that Microsoft has only declined by 21% in the past 12 months compared to Tesla’s 60% decline. However, the volatility and price condition over the next three months will largely depend on the next earnings report and the general stock market condition.
Lagarde's Dilemma: Balancing Eurozone's Slowdown and Inflation Pressure

Microsoft earnings: The world's largest software maker reports FY23 Q2 earnings (ending 31 December) tomorrow after the market close with analysts expecting revenue growth slowing to 2.3% y/y

Peter Garnry Peter Garnry 23.01.2023 22:22
It's definitely an action-packed week. Major US tech stocks publish they earnings reports. Peter Garnry, Head of Equity Strategy, talks Microsoft report. Microsoft's share price is down 29% from its peak and the equity valuation has fallen to a 3.6% free cash flow yield which is slightly above the US 10-year yield Microsoft sees margin pressure: The world's largest software maker reports FY23 Q2 earnings (ending 31 December) tomorrow after the market close with analysts expecting revenue growth slowing to 2.3% y/y down from 20.1% y/y one year ago and down from 10.6% y/y revenue growth in the previous quarter. While the strong USD is obviously impacting foreign income the macroeconomic headwinds are also impacting customer activity. We expect the macro headwinds to impact the Windows and cloud businesses driven by lower PC sales and a slowdown in enterprise software spending. In addition to slowing revenue growth increased energy costs to its data centers and wage pressures will continue to put Microsoft's operating margin under pressure. EBITDA margin is expected to decline to 45.6% in FY23 Q2 down from 49.8% in the previous quarter and 50.7% a year ago. Analysts expect EPS of $2.30 down 6% y/y. Microsoft's share price is down 29% from its peak and the equity valuation has fallen to a 3.6% free cash flow yield which is slightly above the US 10-year yield with the difference being that these free cash flows are not fixed unlike those coupons on government bonds. Read next: Saxo's Market Strategist: Australia's ASX200 could likely to take out a new all-time high. However CPI is a focus this week| FXMAG.COM
US CPI Surprises on the Upside, but Fed Expectations Unchanged Amid Rising Recession Risks

More Job Cuts, Microsoft Is Putting $10 Billion Into The Now-Very-Famous ChatGPT

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 24.01.2023 10:51
The week started with more news of layoffs, and further gains in the S&P500. S&P500 The S&P500 traded above the 200-DMA, yet again. Earnings will decide whether the latest gains will be sustainable. Microsoft All eyes are on Microsoft – not only because it will release Q4 earnings after the bell, but also because it’s been making a great buzz since the start of the year thanks to its bet on ChatGPT. The company confirmed yesterday that is putting $10 billion into the now-very-famous ChatGPT. PMI On the macro front, PMI data released this morning showed that the manufacturing activity in Japan didn’t improve in January, while Australia’s manufacturing PMI slipped below 50, into the contraction zone for the first time in 32 months, but business confidence improved to a three-month high, on China’s reopening. EUR/USD Elsewhere, the EURUSD couldn’t consolidate gains above the 1.09 mark yesterday. But today’s PMI data could help give another boost to the single currency. And, if not, the message from the European Central Bank (ECB) is crystal clear: the rate hikes will continue and that’s positive for the euro. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:31 More job cuts, more S&P500 gains? 2:44 Has Microsoft hit the jackpot with ChatGPT? 5:07 FX roundup: commo-currencies, euro and yen 8:15 Gold’s next bullish target at $1980 per ounce Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #ChatGPT #Microsoft #earnings #PMI #data #USD #EUR #JPY #CAD #AUD #crude #oil #XAU #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH
UK PMIs Signal Economic Deceleration, Pound Edges Lower

Every Microsoft Product Will Have A Certain AI-Capability

Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya 24.01.2023 11:35
The week started with more news of layoffs, and further gains in the S&P500.   Spotify was the latest tech company to announce it will let go of 6% of its workforce – around 600 jobs. Shares gained 2%  Ford announced it will cut 3200 jobs, mostly in Germany. Shares jumped more than 3%.  Easy. Companies slash jobs, investors buy shares.   But job cuts and cost-saving measures may not be all positive; they could also be a sign of a slowing demand. Just saying.  Anyway, the persistent optimism from investors, and the urge to call the end of the bear market pushed the S&P500 above the 200-DMA, yet again. Earnings will decide whether the latest gains will be sustainable.  All eyes are on Microsoft  All eyes are on Microsoft – not only because it will release Q4 earnings after the bell, but also because it's been making a great buzz since the start of the year thanks to its bet on ChatGPT.  The company confirmed yesterday that is putting $10 billion into the now-very-famous ChatGPT.   And given the traction that ChatGPT has gained since the start of the year, Microsoft could be on a winning path with its AI-bet.   The company's CEO said last week in Davos that every Microsoft product will have a certain AI-capability. The bots will be able to analyze Excel spreadsheets, to create AI art to illustrate a PowerPoint presentation, or even draft a whole email in Outlook. This is good news for everyone.  As such, it could well secure Microsoft's position as exclusive cloud computing provider to one of the world's leading – or at least the most famous to date - AI start-ups; it is a boost to its Azure cloud business, and perhaps to its search engine Bing, as well, which has remained well under the shadow of Google since ever.   Let's see if Microsoft will be the one to push the S&P500 above the year-long down trending channel top – despite the looming recession chatter.   PMI  PMI data released this morning showed that the manufacturing activity in Japan didn't improve in January, and remained in the contraction zone, although the services PMI printed a better-than-expected expansion. The dollar-yen advanced past the 130 level on Monday, but finds sellers above that level, as traders continue betting against the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) dovish policy, which makes little sense in the actual market environment. Buying the yen against US dollar remains a popular trade.  In Australia, the manufacturing PMI slipped below 50, into the contraction zone for the first time in 32 months, but business confidence improved to a three-month high, on hopes that China's reopening will make sure that activity doesn't stay depressed for long. The Aussie-dollar broke above the 70 cents level, as predicted, and consolidated above that level despite the weak PMI read this morning. The pair should continue its journey north on the back of a globally softer US dollar, and prospects of a better Chinese demand that boost commodity prices, including iron ore – which matters for the Aussie.  In other currencies, the EURUSD couldn't consolidate gains above the 1.09 mark yesterday. But today's PMI data could help give another boost to the single currency.   And, if not, the message from the European Central Bank (ECB) is crystal clear: the rate hikes will continue and that's positive for the euro.  Fun fact: The ECB went from one of the most dovish central banks last year – except the Bank of Japan and the Turkish central bank – to one of the most hawkish central banks in just a year.   If the euro weakened to below parity last year because of the dovish ECB divergence, the hawkish rectification in the ECB's policy stance should help it to recover further. 
US Inflation Rises but Core Inflation Falls to Two-Year Low, All Eyes on ECB Rate Decision on Thursday

Saxo Bank Podcast: Earnings Season Kicks Off In Earnest, Silver's Ugly Dip Relative To Still-Strong Gold

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 24.01.2023 12:05
Summary:  Today we discuss the US equity market melting up technically at an awkward moment, as leading indicators suggest we are barreling into a recession. In any case, a big test ahead as earnings season kicks off in earnest with today's batch of companies reporting, including beaten down mega-cap Microsoft after hours. In commodities, a check-in with crude oil, silver's ugly dip relative to still-strong gold, and one of the most shorted commodities, coffee. Stocks to watch today, the macro calendar picking up and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are available via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it. Read next: South African Petrochemical Company Sasol Is Moving Away From Fossil Fuels, Germany Again Refused To Send Tanks To Ukraine| FXMAG.COM   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: Podcast: Uncomfortable squeeze as earnings season rush kicks off | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
EUR/USD Movement Analysis: False Breakthrough and Volatility Ahead of Powell's Speech

Microsoft: The Use Of Artificial Intelligence In Tools Such As GitHub

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 24.01.2023 14:23
Yesterday (23.01), OpenAI - the technology company that is the creator of the ChatGPT language model - reported in an announcement the entry into the next phase of its expanded partnership with Microsoft. We will learn the latter's quarterly report today after the close of trading. What could we learn from the announcement and what can we expect from the company's financial results? The history of these two companies The non-commercial organisation OpenAI was founded in 2015. Elon Musk, Ilya Sutskever, Greg Brockman and Wojciech Zaremba. The company's goal is to promote and develop artificial intelligence in a responsible and safe way for humans. Microsoft has been working with OpenAI since 2019. As part of this collaboration, Microsoft is providing the Azure cloud as a platform to run OpenAI models, as well as supporting the development and exploration of new artificial intelligence technologies. In 2020. Microsoft and OpenAI announced a collaboration to develop GPT-3, one of the largest language models in the world. In 2021. Microsoft invested $1 billion in OpenAI. We have now heard of a further investment of $10bn. As the company states in the announcement: “We’ve worked together to build multiple supercomputing systems powered by Azure, which we use to train all of our models. Azure’s unique architecture design has been crucial in delivering best-in-class performance and scale for our AI training and inference workloads. Microsoft will increase their investment in these systems to accelerate our independent research and Azure will remain the exclusive cloud provider for all OpenAI workloads across our research, API and products" Supporting programmers and graphic designers is the next step "We’ve partnered with Microsoft to deploy our technology through our API and the Azure OpenAI Service—enabling enterprise and developers to build on top of GPT, DALL·E, and Codex. We’ve also worked together to build OpenAI’s technology into apps like GitHub Copilot and Microsoft Designer." - the OpenAI announcement continued. It follows that we will see the use of artificial intelligence in tools such as GitHub, an app to support developers' work, and Microsoft's new Designer service for graphic design. It is intended to compete with Canva, which currently has around 100 million active users. Can we expect a surprise from Microsoft's report? The tech giant's business falls into three main categories: Productivity and Business Processes (productivity and business process support tools), Intelligent Cloud (all cloud computing services) and More Personal Computing (mainly Windows or gaming). Historically, these segments have accounted for a similar share of the company's revenue, but especially in recent years, cloud services are starting to play a key role, increasing their share to 40 per cent. According to Zacks, a portal that analyses financial data and predicts possible surprises in financial results, the Zacks Earnings ESP (expected prediction surprise) ratio is currently at 0.34 per cent, which means that  it might be less possible to be a significant surprise relative to expected earnings per share in Q4 2022. This currently stands at USD 2.3 (previously USD 2.29). What does Wall Street think of Microsoft's share price? According to the Market Screener portal, the company has 51 recommendations, and among them, the predominant one reads: "Buy". The average target price is set at USD 291.72, 20 per cent above the last closing price. The highest target price is at USD 411 and the lowest is USD 212, which is below the last closing price. Source: Conotoxia MT5, Microsoft, Daily Grzegorz Dróżdż, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service)  
The Bitcoin Price Did Breakout Of The Bear Flag Pattern

Microsoft Was Recently Identified As One Of WEF's Collaborators

Jakub Novak Jakub Novak 24.01.2023 15:20
After the rapid rally that occurred between January 18 and January 20, bitcoin and ether are still in the same position. Only this will enable bitcoin to keep expanding while investors and traders wait to see what direction the Federal Reserve System will take the following week. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella gave his thoughts on the metaverse and how this technology would affect the future. According to Nadella, the sense of presence gained through interactions with metaverse technology is "forever changing the rules of the game" in business. In addition, he expressed his support for the metaverse, pointing out how much more socially interactive it is than previous technologies. According to Nadella, the most significant aspect of this technology is the sensation of presence that develops even when you interact electronically. In Nadella's opinion, COVID-19 altered the environment for meetings, compelling more individuals to use video conferences. So it makes perfect sense that newer technologies will be used. The metaverse and other emerging technologies have the potential to significantly alter contemporary civilization. Microsoft was recently identified as one of WEF's collaborators in the creation of the Global Collaboration Village, an online version of Davos. This digital environment serves the organization's goal of enabling the participation of world leaders in ongoing discussions of politics and global issues. Microsoft is also making active investments in metaverse-related firms to collaborate with them on some of its technological solutions for enhancing virtual worlds. The business disclosed in October that it was modifying its cloud infrastructure for use in applications for the metaverse. As we can see, investing in the metaverse's future and the businesses working to achieve it is a very interesting idea. Investors pay particular attention to the support and development of these initiatives because of the involvement of numerous companies in the cryptosphere. The tokens and altcoins of these companies will undoubtedly immediately skyrocket in price and gain weight once the crypto-winter is over. Regarding the technical picture of bitcoin today, the level of $23,180 is already the closest goal for the bulls. If you fixate on it, you'll create a new bullish trend with the potential to update $23,680. The $24,420 region will be the farthest objective, where significant profit-taking and a rollback of bitcoin may take place. In the case of renewed pressure on the trading instrument, protecting the $22,520 level will be of utmost importance because a breach by sellers would be detrimental to the asset. This will put pressure on bitcoin and create a direct path to $21,840. The world's first cryptocurrency will "drop" in the neighborhood of $21,320 if this level is broken. The breakdown of the nearest resistance at $1,693 is what ether buyers are concentrating on. This is going to be sufficient to establish a foothold at the current highs and keep the bullish trend going. The market will undergo considerable adjustments as a result of this. The balance will be returned to the ether upon consolidation above $1,693, with the possibility of increasing up to a maximum of $1,758. A second target will be in the $1,819 range. The $1,504 level, which was just formed, will come into play when the pressure on the trading instrument resumes and the $1,600 support collapses. If it succeeds, the trading instrument will rise to a minimum of $1,410. It will be difficult for bitcoin owners to trade below $1,320 (just $1,320).     Relevance up to 13:00 2023-01-25 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/333125
OPEC+ Are Expected To Keeping Oil Production Unchanged, AUD/USD Trades At Its Highest Levels

OPEC+ Are Expected To Keeping Oil Production Unchanged, AUD/USD Trades At Its Highest Levels

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 25.01.2023 09:54
Summary:  Equity markets lose steam and trade cautiously ahead of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. The S&P500 closes above it 200-day average for the second day - a sign there are more bulls in the market than bears, but Tesla's results could rock the boat. Australian and NZ CPI blow hotter than expected. Gold is on the cusp of a bull market. Oil slides, investors buy the dip ahead of the EU ban on Russian oil. Oil prices make their biggest drop in 3 weeks; some investors see this as opportunity Equity markets lose steam and trade cautiously ahead of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge   US equity markets were a bit dull on Tuesday with investors weighing up mostly stronger than expected Microsoft earnings results, vs a weaker than expected earnings from chipmaker giant, Texas Instruments. The S&P500(US500.I) fell 0.1% but closed above it 200-day average for the second day (a sign there are more bulls in the market than bears), while the Nasdaq 100 (NAS100.I) lost 0.2%. Still markets are waiting for the next major catalysts; Tesla’s results on Wednesday, then later in the week the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for December to gauge if the Nasdaq’s rally of 11% from its low can be sustained, especially as the PE for the Nasdaq is about 54.6 times earnings; meaning tech stocks are still quite expensive compared to their averages. The risk is if Core PCE doesn’t fall as expected from 4.7% QoQ to 3.9%, then we could see a selloff in equity markets, while the US dollar would be bought as hotter inflation supports the Fed keeping rates higher for longer. However, the S&P500 is seemingly bullish for now, until the next tests (some of which we mentioned), click for an in depth Technical Analysis on what the next levels could be for the S&P500. Mixed Microsoft (MSFT) result has shareholders relived as cloud sales rise more than forecast; a sign the business could stand tall amid the murky year ahead After hours Microsoft (MSFT) shares gained 4.3% with investors relieved its revenue in constant currency rose 7% in the quarter, versus the 6.59% estimate. Microsoft’s closely watched Azure cloud-computing business, sales gained 38%, compared with predictions for a 37% increase, excluding the impact of currency fluctuations. This underscores Azure’s ability to help drive the company forth, even as sales of Windows software to PC makers plummeted amid a slumping market. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.32, slightly better than the $2.30 estimate, thanks to the cost cutting. Capital expenditure was $6.27 billion, less than Bloomberg estimated ($6.63 billion), while revenue slightly missed expectations hitting $52.75 billion vs the $52.93 billion estimate. Commodities see red on profit taking, while gold nudges up on the cusp of a bull market   Oil dropped, with WTI falling $1.8% below $81 after as OPEC+ are expected to keeping oil production unchanged when they meet next week as they await clarity on Chinese demand and the impact of EU’s ban on Russian supply (from Feb 5). Copper declined 0.2% with investors booking profits after the copper prices gained 32% from their low. Traders bought into Wheat, lifting the Wheat price up 2% as its trades at year lows. While Gold nudged up 0.4%, taking its total rally off its low to 19.5%, meaning gold is on the cusp of a bull market. Be mindful that we also think gold could also face profit taking, or a consolidation. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy discusses that here.  Australia CPI came out hotter than expected. Focus is on oil’s biggest drop in 3 weeks with some investors buying the dip  After Australia’s ASX200(ASXSP200.I) rallied for five straight days, the market fell like a knife on Wednesday after CPI came out hotter than expected supporting the notion that the RBA can keep rates higher for longer, despite the services sector remaining in contractionary phase. You have to remember Australian CPI has now on numerous occasions been hotter than expected. So given the market is up 16% from its low, we are seeing traders and investors book in profits ahead of the public holiday tomorrow and ahead of next week's RBA decision. Oil stocks such as Santos, Woodside, WorleyParsons, Ampol trade lower but some longer term investors would be seeing this pull back as an opportunity to buy the dip. Why? Oil prices remain supported ahead of EU’s ban on Russian oil coming up (Feb 5), which will restrict oil supply, plus we’re seeing APAC air travel rev up and this is expected to continue over the medium term; which is also driving demand for diesel and underpinning oil demand. In FX the Aussie dollar is on the cusp of a key event   The Aussie dollar vs the US (AUDUSD) trades at its highest levels since August, 70.64 US, after AU CPI came out showing prices are up 7.8% YoY, vs 7.6% expected. Core mean CPI rose 6.9% YoY, also hotter than the 6.5% expected. This means the RBA has more fire power to keep rising rates, despite the services sector remaining in a contraction (with a reading of under 50). If the AUDUSD's 50 day simple moving average crosses above the 200 day, marking a ‘golden cross’, we could see a quick run up to 0.7137, the August peak. It’s also worth watching the AUDEUR as bullish momentum could see the pair on the weekly chart cross over its 100-day moving average. - Stay tuned to Saxo's inspiration page for trading and investing ideas, as news breaks.  For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast. Source: Video: Oil prices drop, some investors buy the oil dip. AU & NZ CPI hotter than expected | Saxo Group (home.saxo)  
Earnings, Soft PMIs, and Market Dynamics: Impact on Yields, Dollar, and Key Developments

Microsoft Forecasts A Continuous Slowdown, Eurozone PMI Rose

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 25.01.2023 10:13
Summary:  US equities posted an uninspiring session yesterday and the mood soured slightly after the close on Microsoft reporting earnings and issuing weak guidance for its cloud business. Today, the hotly anticipated Tesla earnings report is up after hours. Elsewhere, US Treasury yields dipped and the Australian dollar jumped to new cycle highs in many AUD pairs, including versus the US dollar, on hotter than expected Australian Q4 CPI data.   What is our trading focus? Equities: Momentum faded in US equities mixed earnings The Q4 earnings releases yesterday weighed on sentiment yesterday with the biggest negative surprise coming from 3M expecting -3% to 0% organic revenue growth in 2023 which indicates a sharp decline in volume which 3M confirmed is taking place in consumer electronics and retail related businesses. After the cash close Microsoft reported a worse than expected outlook sending S&P 500 futures lower trading around the 4,020 level early European trading hours. We expect sentiment to remain in a negative mood as the market awaits Tesla’s Q4 result after the market close. FX: USD generally weaker together with sterling, AUD surges The USD was sold again yesterday after a minor rebound, with EURUSD trading back above 1.0900 by this morning and near the cycle highs, while the weaker USD signal was not particularly pure or broad. USDJPY remains above 130.00 as the price action there has lost energy, for example. Some of the euro strength may be on EURJPY flows as the ECB jawboning remains on the hawkish side of late, and on EURGBP flows as sterling stumbled badly yesterday on a very weak preliminary January UK Services PMI yesterday, with EURGBP well back up into the range above 0.8800. The recent cycle top there was just south of 0.8900. Overnight, AUD jumped broadly to the strong side overnight on hot CPI data (more below). Crude oil (CLH3 & LCOH3) sits between two chairs Following Tuesday’s sharp fall, as investors turned more risk adverse following disappointing earnings, crude oil prices are slightly higher into today’s session with recession fears continuing to be offset by an expected increase in Chinese demand and supply concerns related to next month's EU embargo on Russian seaborne sales of fuel products. In Brent the approach to $90 and the December high at $89.40 is likely to prove a tough nut to crack until more supporting news reaches the market. API data showed another build in US crude stocks, but at 3.4mn barrels if was less than the huge builds seen recently. The EIA data is out later today. Gold at new cycle high Gold reached a new cycle high on Tuesday of $1942.5 before profit taking emerged following the better-than-expected PMIs before bouncing back after the weak Richmond Fed index. Bullion trades up close to 6% this month and more than 300 dollars above the early November low on growing recession fears and expected slowing of Fed tightening. The remainder of the week is littered with US economic data, including US Q4 GDP and PCE, the Fed’s favoured inflation metric. Gold remains in a steep uptrend with support at $1900 followed by $1880 where the 21-day moving average and trendline from the November low meet. Silver has stabilised following Monday’s short-lived sell off below $23.15 but a couple of closes above the 21-day moving average, last at $23.76 will be needed to turn the sentiment more supportive. Chicago wheat futures advance Chicago wheat, one of the three most shorted commodities by the hedge fund industry trades near a one-week high after crop conditions worsened in Texas, the second biggest US producing state of winter wheat, a reminder that dry soil conditions remain following last year's massive drought. In the week to January 17, data from the CFTC showed hedge funds held the biggest short position in Chicago wheat since May 2019. Together with Arabica coffee, another heavily shorted contract, these contracts remain exposed to short covering should the technical and/or fundamental outlook turn more favourably. US Treasuries (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) yields fall. Very strong 2-year Treasury auction US treasuries found support and rallied yesterday, taking the 10-year treasury yield benchmark back below 3.50% and the 2-year was back below 4.20% this morning, in part after a very strong 2-year auction that saw the strongest bidding metrics since the early 2020 pandemic outbreak timeframe. The US treasury will auction 5-year T-notes today. Grumbles around a protracted US debt ceiling showdown in Congress and the risk of default by the US government not wearing on trust in US sovereign paper yet, with “crunch time” for the issue seen as early as early summer if the situation not resolved before then. What is going on? Microsoft’s outlook sent shares lower The world’s largest software company missed revenue estimates in Q2 (ending 31 December) by a small margin but hit the EPS consensus estimate with EPS at $2.32 for the quarter. The initial reaction was positive in the extended trading session but as the outlook became clearer to investors shares sold off. Microsoft forecasts a continuous slowdown in the commercial business in the next two quarters leaving room for a growth acceleration later in 2023. ASML confirms strong demand for chips Europe’s largest technology company reports Q4 sales of €6.4bn in line with estimates and a gross margin of 51.5% vs est. 49.3%. Investors will be pleased to see the confidence in the outlook with Q1 sales guidance at €6.1-6.5bn vs est. €6.1bn and FY23 revenue growth of 25% compared to consensus at 20% y/y. The company also sees a slight improvement in the gross margin. The Aussie dollar rallied up to 0.8% to 0.7100+, a new 5-month high on hot Q4 CPI print The Australian dollar popped to 0.7108 US, its highest level since early August after another Australian inflation print came out hotter than expected after electricity prices surged, rents also remained stubbornly high, along with furnishings, and household equipment price. Core Trimmed Mean CPI rose 6.9% YoY, above the 6.5% consensus expected. Headline inflation came in at 7.8%, slightly below consensus expectations. Recall the RBA expects inflation to remain high in early in 2023, particularly amid higher energy costs. This is also in line with several other government bodies’ thinking. The stronger inflation data saw odds of an RBA hiking pause for February falling, with a majority now looking for a hike at the Feb. 8 RBA meeting, with about 65 basis points of total additional tightening priced for the RBA, with a peak policy rate priced near 3.75%. Eurozone Flash Jan. Composite PMI edges into expansion Eurozone PMI rose to 50.2 in January from 49.3 in December and 49.8 expected, suggesting that the region may be able to skirt a recession due to a less harsh winter this season which has given room to the ECB to continue to focus on fighting underlying inflationary pressures. Manufacturing PMI was just below the key 50-mark at 48.8 but better than last month’s 47.8, while the rise of services PMI to 50.7 drove most of the gains. UK services PMI, on the other hand, fell to 48 from 49.9 in December, while manufacturing gained slightly to 46.7 in January from 45.3 previously but still remained in contraction. This suggests further signs of UK being in a recession in early 2023 and possibly a sooner pause for the BOE than the ECB. US Flash Jan. PMIs hold up better than expected US flash PMIs for January surpassed expectations, as services rose to 46.6, above the expected 45.0 and the prior 44.7, while manufacturing lifted to 46.8 from 46.2 (exp. 46.0), which comes ahead of ISM on February 1st. The composite rose to 46.6 from 45.0, and this will probably further boost the calls in favour of a soft landing rather than a deep recession as has been the case since the start of the year due to faster-than-expected China reopening and stronger Eurozone outlook. Still, activity is in contraction and job growth is cooling, but the January print also pointed to a re-acceleration in the input cost inflation. US and Germany to send tanks to Ukraine The Biden administration is reportedly expected to announce the intent to send 30 M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, with Germany’s Chancellor Scholz also reportedly deciding to send at least 14 of its Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine after a long hesitation. Reports suggest Germany would only agree to send its best tanks if the US did likewise. It is unknown how rapidly the tanks could be deployed at the front. The US Justice Department and eight US states sue Alphabet Inc.’s Google (GOOGL:xnas) ... charging the company with a monopoly in its digital advertising market place and calling for a break-up of the company’s business in this area. Google retorted that the case “largely duplicates an unfounded lawsuit by the Texas Attorney General, much of which was recently dismissed by a federal court. DoJ is doubling down on a flawed argument....” Alphabet, Inc.’s share price fell 2% yesterday. Codelco produced 10% less copper than planned last year Production at Codelco, the Chilean state-owned miner said on Tuesday it produced 10% less copper than planned last year. Driven by mishaps at existing operations, such as rockfall, equipment malfunctions and dam freeze. In addition, some projects were delayed as the industry is seeing cost blowouts. Chile, the world's biggest supplier has increasingly been challenged by steadily falling ore quality, water shortages and projects becoming pricier. Developments that together with social unrest in Peru and the expected pickup in demand from China and the green transformation point to underlying support for copper. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) report production and earnings later today and it may overtake Codelco as the world’s top producer. What are we watching next?  Bank of Canada meets today – most see a 25-basis point hike tomorrow followed by a pause Most observers are looking for the Bank of Canada to hike one last time for this cycle today to take the policy rate to 4.50% and to indicate a pause to assess inflation- and labour market conditions before deciding on next steps. The Bank of Canada hiked rapidly in 2022 in an attempt to catch up with galloping inflation but has contrasted with the Fed in signalling a pause in the hike cycle well before the Fed, which has been slower to signal that peak rates may be nearing. USDCAD trades near the lows since last November at 1.3350 this morning (2023 low is 1.3322), with the 200-day moving average creeping higher and near 1.3200. Tesla earnings on watch for margin pressure from price cuts Analysts expect revenue growth of 36% y/y and EPS of $1.12 up 64% y/y. Analysts are still very bullish on revenue growth for 2023 with expectations at 30% growth despite the recent slip in deliveries and three quarters of growing difference between production and deliveries. This is also reflected in the consensus price target at $190 vs the current price of $144. Traders and investors are also expressing a bullish take on Tesla with the put-call ratio on volume being 0.79 and the put-call open interest ratio at 0.65. The key thing to watch will be the comments on recent price cuts for several models, and how that impacts the bottom line, and whether the demand response is big enough to offset the price reduction to see the bottom line grow this year. Earnings to watch Today’s key earnings focus is ASML and Tesla as both earnings will set the direction for sentiment in the market. Read our earnings preview from yesterday here.  Today: ASML, Lonza Group, Tesla, Abbott Laboratories, NextEra Energy, IBM, Boeing, ServiceNow, CSX, Freeport-McMoRan, Lam Research, Norfolk Southern  Thursday: Tryg, Novozymes, Kone, Nokia, LVMH, Christian Dior, STMicroelectronics, SAP, Diageo, Atlas Copco, Volvo, SEB, Visa, Mastercard, Comcast, Intel, Blackstone, Valero Energy, Archer-Daniels-Midland, Dow, Nucor, L3Harris Technologies, Southwest Airlines, American Airlines  Friday: Fanuc, Chevron, American Express, Colgate-Palmolive  Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0900 – Germany Jan. IFO Business Climate survey  1500 – Canada Bank of Canada Rate Decision  1530 – US Weekly DoE Oil and Product Inventories  1600 – Canada Bank of Canada Statement and Press Conference  1800 – US 5-year Treasury Auction  Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher   Source: Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – January 25, 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
EUR/USD: Looking beyond the market’s trust issues with the Fed and ECB

The Euro Is Doing Well, Fed Expectations Become Alarmingly Soft

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 25.01.2023 11:47
Trading in the US was eventless, except for the wild moves that marked the opening bell at the NYSE. S&P500 The S&P500 swung around the 4000, without any major moves up or down, as investors remained undecided faced with mixed company earnings, and mixed economic data. Microsoft  Microsoft announced better-than-expected results yesterday, but the 5% rally in the afterhours trading rapidly faded. Tesla is due to announce its earnings today. Forex In the FX, the US dollar remains under the pressure of soft data, and worryingly softening Fed expectations. The EURUSD is testing the 1.09 resistance on encouraging PMI data, while sterling is softer on growing slowdown worries. Bank of Canada In Canada, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is preparing to announce its final 25bp hike. The dollar-CAD puts increasing weight into clearing the 1.3350 support, but crude oil is not helping, as the price of a barrel of American crude continues bumping its head against the solid $82pb wall, the 100-DMA, without being able to break it to the upside. Read next: The Department Of Justice's Lawsuit Against Google | FXMAG.COM Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:38 S&P500 flat around 4000 1:55 Fed expectations become alarmingly soft 2:55 Microsoft earnings may not boost sentiment in S&P500 4:43 Tesla earnings due after the bell 6:26 US softer, euro stronger 7:29 Deteriorating UK outlook is not a concern for FTSE 100 8:48 BoC to announce a final 25bp hike 9:00 Crude oil: $82pb resistance too strong to clear… Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Tesla #Microsoft #earnings #ChatGPT #Nvidia #PMI #data #Fed #ECB #expectations #USD #EUR #GBP #BoC #rate #decision #CAD #crude #oil #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH
Tesla Is Expected A Temporary Rally

Musk Intends To Cut Costs In Tesla On Everything

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 26.01.2023 11:34
After Elon Musk acquired Twitter, many investors are wondering what's next for Tesla. Recently, after publishing the results, Elon Musk shared plans for Tesla. In this article: Cuts Apple has maintained its position as the largest smartphone manufacturer Asia will be the leader in the future The future of Big Tech in 2023 Cuts Elon Musk's attention has recently been largely focused on Twitter's activities, but he does not forget about Tesla. Musk intends to cut costs on everything from parts to logistics, while keeping the pressure on competitors with discounted sticker prices. Tesla is also cutting costs by redesigning battery and electric motor system components, removing features owners don't use, based on data collected from Model 3 sedans and Model Y SUVs on the road Elon Musk has a playbook for Tesla headed into what he believes will be a 'serious' recession: cut costs on everything from parts to logistics, while keeping the pressure on competitors with discounted sticker prices https://t.co/tyYV26iN6v pic.twitter.com/G1KyALvLjY — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) January 26, 2023 Apple has maintained its position as the largest smartphone manufacturer The difficult economic situation also affected the sales of smartphones. Global smartphone shipments declined in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to research firm IDC. A total of 1.21 billion smartphones were shipped in 2022, the lowest annual shipment volume since 2013 due to significantly weakened consumer demand, inflation and economic uncertainty. Apple has maintained its position as the largest smartphone manufacturer in the world. The US tech giant shipped 72.3 million iPhones in the fourth quarter, down 14.9% year-on-year. Samsung, the second largest player in the smartphone market, saw sales fall 15.6% year-on-year to 58.2 million units. Samsung did not release an all-new flagship smartphone for the fourth quarter. Smartphone shipments plunge to a low not seen since 2013 — their largest ever decline https://t.co/KHk5fHELJr — CNBC (@CNBC) January 26, 2023 Read next: Trump Returns To Social Media, Meta Will Restore The Former President's Account| FXMAG.COM Asia will be the leader in the future Since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, global growth has been put to a significant test. This was especially shown in 2022, where the growing inflation and interest rates affected the condition of the economies. Investors and economists are wondering whether global economic leaders will maintain their positions or will this change over the years as a result of events. The United States is the economic leader followed by China. According to economists, this may change and the main driving force of global growth will not be Western countries, but countries from Asia. This is very likely because most of the population is in this region, and this region is developing dynamically and thus offers jobs and attracts new residents. What countries are likely to power global growth in the decades to come? We cover the answer in our #ExchangesGS podcast here: https://t.co/G60vRNYV1u pic.twitter.com/w61esY8sv2 — Goldman Sachs (@GoldmanSachs) January 25, 2023 The future of Big Tech in 2023 2022 was a difficult year for Silicon Valley. After solid growth lasting more than a decade and a pandemic-induced boom, Big Tech giants like Meta, Alphabet and Apple have lost market value. Overall, Big Tech faces countless challenges in 2023, including macroeconomic pressures, increased competition, supply chain issues, and bloated cost structures. However, there are positive sides to every cloud: companies are now rethinking their business strategies, which could pave the way for a more sustainable era for Big Tech. For example, when it comes to Meta, the company is expected to continue to focus on its new AI Discovery engine, ads, and business platforms. Big Tech firms endured a tough year due to macro headwinds, supply chain issues, and plummeting revenues. J.P. Morgan Research explores the opportunities that lie ahead. — J.P. Morgan (@jpmorgan) January 25, 2023
TikTok Bans Are Gathering Momentum In The US

Facebook’s Best Rally In Almost A Decade, BoE’s Tightening Cycle May End Soon

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 03.02.2023 10:19
Yesterday was, again, a fantastic day of trading for equities, as the less hawkish than expected tone from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) meetings joined the optimistic vibes from the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s ‘disinflationary process’ mention a day before, and all that combined with Facebook’s best rally in almost a decade painted the market in the green. S&P500 The S&P500 gained around 1.50%. Nasdaq 100 jumped more than 3.5% and entered bull market as Meta jumped more than 23%. Earnings But today will probably not be as fantastic as yesterday, as Apple, Amazon and Google announced earnings after the bell yesterday, and they all disappointed. US jobs data Maybe, the again-important US jobs data could temper the earnings-triggered weakness – if of course the NFP number, and more importantly the wages growth are sufficiently soft to keep the Fed doves in charge of the market. Rates Elsewhere, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) raised their rates by 50bp yesterday, but Lagarde sounded much less aggressive than the December meeting. Read next: USD/JPY Pair Is Trading At 128.48 The Aussie Pair Is Above 0.71$| FXMAG.COM Euro The EURUSD sold off. But I believe that the euro’s recovery hasn’t ended just yet, as we see the end of the tunnel for the Fed – as the Fed rates approach the 5% mark, while we don’t yet see the end of the tightening tunnel for the ECB. Watch the full episode to find out more and find the link to our latest blog article : www.swissquote.com/blog 0:00 Intro 0:50 Stocks rally on dovish central bank expectations, and Facebook… 2:10 … but Apple, Amazon and Google dampen the mood. 5:38 What kind of US jobs data could cheer up investors? 6:42 BoE’s tightening cycle may end soon 8:21 ECB’s Lagarde sounded less aggressive than last December, but euro should do fine… Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #US #NFP #wages #jobs #data #ECB #BoE #Fed #FOMC #meeting #Powell #disinflation #Meta #Apple #Google #Amazon #earnings #USD #EUR #GBP #Bailey #Lagarde #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH      
Is Gold Ready to Shine Again? US CPI and Fed Policy Insights

Gold’s Upside Is Likely Limited, Yesterday’s Speech From The Fed Chair Powell Was Hawkish

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 08.02.2023 11:09
Another hawkish speech from the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell turned into a risk rally yesterday. Equities gained, and the bond yields fell. Fed Yet, yesterday’s speech from the Fed Chair Powell was hawkish. He said that the Fed may hike the rates more than what’s priced in if the jobs market remains unexpectedly strong. Stocks market The S&P500 still eased when Powell said they need ‘substantial evidence’ that inflation slowed, but finally, the index erased gains and ended the session by 1.30% higher. Nasdaq jumped more than 2%. The US 2-year yield eased and the US dollar first jumped, then eased. Zoom and Microsoft In individual stock news, Zoom jumped 10% on news that it will lay off 15% of its workforce, while Microsoft jumped 4% after the company unveiled its new ChatGPT-powered Bing! Forex The EURUSD tipped a toe below its latest bullish trend base, and below its 50-DMA yesterday, and the pair is just at the edge of bullish trend again this morning, with no guarantee that it won’t slide further. Cable rebounded before hitting its 200-DMA, at 1.1950, and is back above the 1.20 mark this morning. Read next: The Decline In Tech Valuations Continues To Hit SoftBank| FXMAG.COM Curde Oil BP shares price jumped nearly 8% to above our mid-term 500p target, after reporting report profit, dividend raise and share buyback, while crude oil jumped more than 4% as API revealed a 2-mio-barrel decline in US stockpiles. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:28 Jerome says one thing, investors hear another thing 1:36 Market update 3:30 One bad, two good news 5:02 Zoom jumps 10% 5:37 Why Microsoft’s AI could be longer-lived than metaverse craze? 7.27 FX update 8:28 BP rallies on profits, oil jumps on US inventories 9:37 Gold’s upside is likely limited Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Powell #speech #inflation #jobs #USD #EUR #GBP #XAU #crude #oil #earnings #Dell #Zoom #layoffs #Microsoft #ChatGPT #Bing #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH
Microsoft Is Replacing The Metaverse With Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Disney Plans To Cut Costs And Jobs, Google Is Now Rolling Out AI Chatbot

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 09.02.2023 10:45
Disney plans to reduce costs and lay off employees. And at the same time, Google and Microsoft implement artificial intelligence into their products. Disney Since 2019, when Disney+ launched, the segment has lost nearly $10 billion as the company has spent a lot on content to attract subscribers. Disney+ is part of Disney's direct-to-consumer business, which includes all video streaming platforms. The direct consumer business lost $1.05 billion in the December quarter. Iger is under pressure to make its streaming business profitable and revive the company's share price, which is down more than 40% from early 2021 highs. Disney plans to reduce the number of TV shows and movies it produces and aggressively manage its general entertainment content, which has become more expensive to produce in recent years due to competition. Moreover, it plans to cut 7,000 jobs and cut costs by $5.5 billion as part of a major corporate reorganization that gives more power to the content company's management and puts more emphasis on sports media at the company. Disney's share price has been rising since the new year. After a weak last two months of 2022 below 100.00, the stock is again above this level. Currently, the stock is close to 120.00, at 118.85. Google At an event in the French capital on Wednesday, Alphabet Inc unveiled a number of AI improvements to its search engine, including plans to start generating long text answers to complex queries with no single correct answer - for example, what constellations are best to look for when stargazing. This came after Google on Monday offered to look at a homegrown rival to the popular ChatGPT chatbot it calls Bard - and inadvertently demonstrated the artificiality of such tools when a screenshot of Bard's answer contained an obvious factual error. Google has unveiled new search and map features powered by artificial intelligence. Read next: The GBP/USD Pair Climbed To Around 1.2100, The EUR/USD Pair Is Above 1.0700| FXMAG.COM Google gave an additional look on Wednesday to its experimental conversational AI chatbot, Bard, which it rolled out to a group of third-party testers earlier this week. The company showed a brief demonstration of how a user can use Bard to suggest criteria to consider when trying to buy a new car or places to visit for a scenic trip. The company also said it is now rolling out a feature that allows Google Maps users to explore 3D representations of destinations - such as inside a restaurant - extrapolated by AI from ordinary 2D photos. And it said it is expanding the availability of a feature that allows users to search for maps for local businesses by pointing the phone to a nearby area. Alphabet shares closed up 7.7% on Wednesday. Microsoft In the midst of Google's announcements, on Tuesday Microsoft unveiled its plans to incorporate the generative AI technology behind ChatGPT into its Bing search engine. It demonstrated how it can process natural language queries to generate answers and suggestions using information such as news, train schedules and product prices. British antitrust authorities announced that Microsoft Corp. proposed to take over gaming giant Activision Blizzard Inc. for $75 billion, which puts Microsoft in a strong position in cloud gaming, and said the merger would hurt UK gamers - creating another major regulatory hurdle for a deal in a large global gaming market. The National Competition and Markets Authority said it would approach both companies to propose ways to alleviate its concerns and made a final decision on whether to allow the deal to go ahead at the end of April. The regulator has offered a list of potential countermeasures that may be hard for Microsoft to swallow. Other major regulators are also investigating the deal. In November, the Federal Trade Commission sued Microsoft to block the deal. Microsoft said the deal would be basically good for gamers, developers and competition. The company also stated that it is not a top console manufacturer or software developer in the video game industry. Microsoft shares fell 0.3%. Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com
BRICS Summit's Expansion Discussion: Impact on De-dollarisation Speed

Equities Fall On Hawkish Fed Comments, Uber, Disney Jump

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 09.02.2023 12:58
US equities fell yesterday on the back of two important factors: hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) members, and the unexpected surge in the American used car prices. Stocks market The S&P500 fell more than 1%, while Nasdaq slid around 1.80%. Inside Nasdaq, Google had a particularly rough day, to say the least. The company posted a Tweet showing Bard in action, and the tweet went wrong, as Bard gave the wrong answer! The stock price slumped by more than 9% at some point. Microsoft Microsoft on the other hand was upbeat on the news, and its valuation shortly surpassed the $2 trillion mark. Uber, Disney Elsewhere, Uber jumped more than 5.5% on stronger than expected results. Disney also jumped by more than 5% in the afterhours, after reporting better than expected results, and the promise to slash $5.5 billion in costs, along with 7000 jobs. The US futures are in the positive at the time I am talking here, but the bears are not far away. Read next: Credit Suisse Reported Its Biggest Annual Loss Since The 2008, Ukrainian President Is Asking For Help And More Weapons In Brussels| FXMAG.COM Forex In the FX, the US dollar remains upbeat, but the 50-DMA offers remain a solid resistance to a bullish breakout. Likewise, the EURUSD remains bid at around the 50-DMA, and the dollar-yen remains offered into the 50-DMA. So that 50-DMA mark is the key resistance that must be cleared to set the dollar bulls free for further appreciation, and de-block the situation in the FX space. Energy In energy, US crude extended gains above its own 50-DMA yesterday. Could it extend gains higher, and by how much? Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:50 Equities fall on hawkish Fed comments… 3:45 … and sudden jump in used-car prices 5:54 Bard’s gaffe costs Google more than $100bn in market cap 7:22 Uber, Disney jump after earnings 8:29 USD must clear 50-dma for further appreciation 9:00 Crude’s next challenge Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Google #Bard #AI #gaffe #Microsoft #ChatGPT #Fed #hawkish #comments #inflation #jobs #USD #EUR #JPY #XAU #crude #oil #earnings #Uber #Disney #layoffs #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH      
Tokyo Inflation Slows: Impact on JPY and USD/JPY

Positive Earnings Have A Beneficial Effect On The US Stock Market

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 10.02.2023 08:04
At the same time, traders note that the market has recently been trading within fairly narrow boundaries. So, this month the S&P 500 did not rise above 4200 points and did not fall below 4000 points, according to MarketWatch. Saxo Bank's head of equity strategy Peter Garnry suggested that the market is moving into a tighter range in anticipation of new information from which it will be possible to decide whether to continue the uptrend or turn down. The number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time increased by 13,000 last week to 196,000, according to a report from the US Department of Labor. Analysts polled by Bloomberg predicted an average increase in the number of applications to 190,000. Dow Jones Industrial Average by 18:00 GMT + 3 increased by 0.65% and amounted to 34169.97 points. Leading gainers among the index components include Walt Disney, as well as Salesforce Inc., which rose 2.9%, Microsoft Corp. - by 1.8% and Intel Corp. - by 1.3%. The value of the Standard & Poor's 500 by this time increased by 0.6% - up to 4144.06 points. The Nasdaq Composite index has risen 0.9% since the market opened and reached 12021.51 points. Read next: Credit Suisse Reported Its Biggest Annual Loss Since The 2008, Ukrainian President Is Asking For Help And More Weapons In Brussels| FXMAG.COM   Walt Disney Co. share price increased by 4.5% in early trading. The world's largest entertainment and media company increased its net profit and revenue in the first quarter (October-December), largely due to strong performance in the amusement parks segment. The head of the company, Bob Iger, announced a reorganization of the business, which includes cutting costs by $5.5 billion a year and laying off about 7,000 people. He also promised to resume at the end of this year the payment of dividends suspended during the coronavirus pandemic. PepsiCo Inc. increased revenue in October-December by 10.9%, increased dividends by 10%. Shares of one of the world's largest producers of soft drinks are growing by 1.7%. Hilton Worldwide Holdings rose 2.5%. The hotel chain more than doubled its fourth-quarter net income, with its adjusted figure and revenue beating analysts' expectations. Cost of Kellogg Co. rises by 1.2%. The breakfast cereal and snack maker posted a net loss in the fourth quarter, but it was driven by write-downs related to the company's spin-off plan. At the same time, profit excluding one-time factors exceeded the forecasts of experts.     search   g_translate       Relevance up to 04:00 2023-02-11 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/312167
Microsoft Is Replacing The Metaverse With Artificial Intelligence (AI)

AI Divergence Between Microsoft And Google Intensifies

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 10.02.2023 10:34
US stocks failed to keep up with the European optimism on the back of rising bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could hike the interest rates to 6%. In fact, option traders are piling into bets that the US rates could peak at 6%. Mexico’s Banxico Plus, the surprise 50bp hike from Mexico’s Banxico, on the back of unexpected – and unwelcomed inflation jump since the end of last year, also raised worries that the US could experience a similar uptick in inflation, and, may have to raise rates higher. Optimism And the strong US jobs market, the latest recovery in energy and commodity prices on the Chinese reopening optimism, and the sudden jump in second-hand car prices are red flags… Stock market The S&P500 fell 0.88% yesterday, and Nasdaq retreated 0.90%. Topsellers will likely remain in charge of the market on the possibility that maybe inflation in the US may have not eased to 6.2% as expected by analysts. But nothing is clear before next Tuesday’s CPI release, in terms of Fed expectations. USD What’s interesting though, is that the hawkish Fed bets don’t translate fully into the US dollar valuation. The US dollar remains under pressure despite the positive pressure on the US yields. And the 50-DMA offers remain particularly solid in the US dollar index. Read next: Twitter Co-Founder Jack Dorsey Comments New Twitter's Owner| FXMAG.COM Bitcoin Finally, Bitcoin fell 5% on news that Kraken stops staking. Negative pressure in tech stocks could further weigh on appetite. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:32 Swiss stocks fell on mixed bag of bad news 2:48 US stocks under pressure as option traders bet for 6% Fed rate 5:25 AI divergence between Microsoft and Google intensifies 5:57 Tesla rallies past $200 but… 6:47 US dollar remains offered at 50-DMA. What are traders waiting for? 7:29 Bitcoin under pressure as Kraken halts staking Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Fed #peak #rate #hawkish #bets #US #inflation #Tesla #Google #Bard #AI #gaffe #Microsoft #ChatGPT #USD #EUR #JPY #Bitcoin #Kraken #CreditSuisse #Trafigura #Swatch #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH
Commodities Update: China's Rate Cut and Potential Impact on Oil and Metals

Campbell Bought A $100,000 Plane To Live In It

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 12.02.2023 17:43
Everyone has dreams for which is to do everything, even spend a colossal amount. An example of such a dream is the dream of a 73-year-old engineer who bought a plane to turn it into an apartment. In this article: Artificial Intelligence (AI) momentum A plane has been turned into a makeshift apartment Barbados is the first country to reach a staff-level agreement to access the IMF's Resilience and Sustainability Trust Artificial Intelligence (AI) momentum Artificial intelligence (AI) related cryptocurrency tokens saw a significant price spike when ChatGPT OpenAI was first released on November 30 last year. After the initial news of ChatGPT, the prices of AI-related tokens have fallen since late December 2022. When on January 11, 2023, the OpenAI research lab launched a pilot of the premium paid version of ChatGPT, investor interest in AI chatbots revived and again led to an increase in the price of AI tokens. AI token prices have increased 2 to 16 times since February 7, 2023, compared to November 30, 2022, as crypto investors poured into the AI narrative. Developments that have contributed to the AI momentum include Microsoft's multi-billion dollar investment in OpenAI and Google's own AI Bard chatbot. #AI has been all the rage this week! 🤖Let's dive deeper to understand how the release of @OpenAI's #ChatGPT and @Google's #Bard has impacted the prices of AI-related cryptocurrencies ⤵️ https://t.co/Tyxz8LRwen — CoinGecko (@coingecko) February 11, 2023 A plane has been turned into a makeshift apartment The 73-year-old turned a plane into a makeshift apartment. His monthly expenses are $370 a month, including $220 a month for property taxes and $100 to $250 a month for electricity. In the early 1970s, Bruce Campbell paid $25,800 for 10 acres of land in Hillsboro, a suburb of Portland, Oregon. An electrical engineer who is now 73 and lives in a parked plane on his property. After months of searching, the company found the Campbell, a 200-passenger Boeing 727 that was 1,066 square feet and weighed about 70,000 pounds. It was found in Greece and is part of American history… in a way. The plane was used to transport the remains of airline owner Aristotle Onassis in 1975. Campbell paid $100,000 for it, and the plane flew from Greece to Oregon to prepare it for takeover. 73-year-old pays $370/month to live in a plane he bought for $100,000 from a salvage yard: "I have no regrets." (via @CNBCMakeIt) https://t.co/TuGYbs81EU — CNBC (@CNBC) February 12, 2023 Barbados is the first country to reach a staff-level agreement to access the IMF's Resilience and Sustainability Trust The IMF's Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST) helps low-income and vulnerable middle-income countries build resilience to external shocks and ensure sustainable growth, contributing to their long-term balance of payments stability. It complements the IMF's existing lending toolkit by providing long-term, affordable financing to meet long-term challenges, including climate change and pandemic preparedness. Barbados is the first country to reach a staff-level agreement to access the IMF's Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST), which aims to provide affordable, long-term funding to help build resilience to climate change. Under the agreement, which is subject to approval by the IMF Executive Board, Barbados will have access to 141.75 million SDRs (approximately $183 million) under the RST and an additional 85.05 million SDRs (approximately $110 million) under the 36-month Extended Facility fund (EDF) to maintain and strengthen  macroeconomic stability and to continue the structural reform agenda. Barbados is among the first countries to request financing from the IMF's Resilience and Sustainability Trust for affordable, long-term financing to help the Caribbean island nation build resilience to climate change. https://t.co/2sBjai6Nxe pic.twitter.com/zupsIRu2a0 — IMF (@IMFNews) February 12, 2023
Microsoft Is Replacing The Metaverse With Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Microsoft Is Replacing The Metaverse With Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Jakub Novak Jakub Novak 14.02.2023 15:47
While a technical correction is brewing in the crypto market, especially given the rally seen earlier this year, software giant Microsoft has announced that it is closing one of its largest Industrial Metaverse Core groups. The company reportedly laid off its entire Industrial Metaverse Core group of 100 employees. This came as part of an announced layoff of 10,000 people in January. Microsoft, the Washington-based software giant, abandons the metaverse in favor of other initiatives. According to The Information, the company has disbanded the Industrial Metaverse Core group, a division of the company dedicated to bringing the metaverse into an industrial environment. The group was created just four months ago and was expected to serve as a bridge to implement metaverse interfaces to control power plants, industrial robotics, and transportation networks. The division was part of the efforts directed to bring the metaverse to industrial environments by bridging software to this initiative. The tech giant's spokesperson comments "Microsoft remains committed to the industrial metaverse. We are applying our focus to the areas of the industrial metaverse that matter most to our customers and they will see no change in how they are supported. We look forward to sharing additional information in the future," the tech giant's spokesperson said. According to experts, this suggests that Microsoft will now use some of its resources from metaverse initiatives and pour them into other areas, such as artificial intelligence. Earlier reports show that Microsoft's cuts have affected other metaverse projects, as well as employees of the Altspacevr metaverse platform, which announced its closure by March of this year. Since January of this year, Microsoft has been actively investing in AI-based start-ups. Thus, against the backdrop of the crypto winter, it is not surprising that the company shut down a number of non-core projects and refocused on more alternative directions. Most likely, once the crypto industry "rises from the ashes," which will affect the emergence of new start-ups, including in the metaverse, it will be easier for Microsoft to invest in them at an early stage than to spend money and maintain their development. Read next: GBP/USD Pair Rose Sharply Above $1.22, EUR/USD Pair Also Rose| FXMAG.COM Bitcoin As for bitcoin, the pressure on it remains quite high. If BTC drops below $21,700, it may face another major sell-off. We can talk about the return of bulls to the market only after the return and fixation at $22,580, which will return the bullish trend with the prospect of hitting $23,350 and $24,000. The next target is located at $25,034, where a rather large profit-taking and a bitcoin pullback may occur. If the pressure on the trading instrument persists, bulls will have to protect $21,700, a breakthrough of which will be a blow to the asset. That will bring the pressure back on bitcoin, pushing the price down to $20,740. Breaking through this level, the world's first cryptocurrency may plummet deeper to the area of $19,770. The price may hit the highs Buyers of ether are now focused on returning the price back to the resistance of $1,521, which they failed to protect earlier this week. This will be enough to weather the drawdown and prevent a new sell-off in the asset. The price may hit the highs and continue its bullish trend only after getting above $1,604 and $1,690, which will bring the ether back in balance, with the prospect of rising to a high of $1,758. The next target is located in the area of $1,819. If the pressure on the trading instrument remains and the price declines, ether is likely to touch $1,410 and $1320. If these levels are pierced, the trading instrument may reach a low of $1,260, which would be quite painful for cryptocurrency holders.   Relevance up to 12:00 2023-02-15 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/335071
The Most Sold Company Turned Out To Be  Microsoft

The Most Sold Company Turned Out To Be Microsoft

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 16.02.2023 13:31
And we've got it! 77 Q4 2022 held investment reports from superinvestor funds. What did the best of the best in this market invest in and walk away from, and what can we learn from this?  First, the highlights The 13F report is a form that investment funds in the United States must file if they control or manage assets of $100 million or more. Form 13F contains information about investments in individual listed companies, including the number of shares and the value of those investments at the end of each quarter. This information is publicly available. The most frequently held companies currently in superinvestors' portfolios are: Google (Alphabet) - as many as 31 times, Microsoft (Microsoft) - 30 times, Meta Platforms (Facebook) - 25 times, Amazon.com (Amazon) - 24 times and Visa (Visa) - 24 times. We have already had the opportunity to discuss the portfolios of George Soros and Warren Buffett. This time, however, let us look at their activities collectively. The most frequently bought companies By far the most frequently bought company was e-commerse giant Amazon.com (Amazon), which was snapped up by as many as 15 super-investors. This seems interesting particularly given the problems of the consumer goods sector, which seems to be particularly negatively affected by the economic slowdown and high interest rates. Amazon currently accounts for 1.62 per cent in the value of all superinvestor portfolios. Source: Conotoxia MT5, Amazon, Daily The second most bought company was technology giant Meta Platforms (Facebook), which was acquired by as many as 13 super-investors in Q4 2022. Following problems with its - seemingly misguided - investment of more than $13 billion in the Metaverse, the company announced a 13 per cent job cut. The cost reduction may have improved investor sentiment, as the company's shares, after falling as much as 78 per cent, have now rebounded 122 per cent from the bottom. Meta accounts for 1.31 per cent of the value of all superinvestors' portfolios. Source: Conotoxia MT5, Facebook, Daily The third most bought company was another tech giant that has recently become famous for its investment in artificial intelligence - Microsoft (Microsoft). It was bought by as many as 11 of the super-investors. The company is now the largest position among all funds, accounting for as much as 2.36 per cent of their portfolios. Source: Conotoxia MT5, Microsoft, Daily In fourth place was Microsoft's biggest competitor, Google (Alphabet), which appears to be focusing on creating a tool such as ChatGPT. The company was bought by nine super-investors in the last quarter of last year, and its shares accounted for 1.52 per cent of the value of funds' portfolios. Source: Conotoxia MT5, alphabet, Daily The most sold companies Interestingly, the most sold company turned out to be the previously mentioned Microsoft. It was sold by 14 super-investors. The largest buyer was Daniel Loeb (Third Point fund), who increased the company's stake by 4.75 per cent of his portfolio, and the largest seller was John Armitage (Egerton Capital fund), reducing the company's stake by 5 per cent of his portfolio. Ex aequo with Microsoft was the world's largest payment service provider, Visa (Visa), also sold by 14 super-investors, with only four of them buying its shares. Viking Global Investors fund bought the largest stake, accounting for 0.46 per cent of its portfolio value, while Lee Ainsile (Maveric Capital fund) opted for the largest sale with 1.32 per cent of its portfolio value. It appears that the reluctance to buy the company may be linked to expectations of reduced consumer activity in the coming quarters. Source: Conotoxia MT5, Visa, Daily In third place were Google shares sold by 12 of the super investors. China's Li Lu (Himalaya Capital Management fund) seems to be by far the most optimistic about the company's future. He increased the company's stake by as much as 7.3 per cent of the value of his portfolio. The biggest pessimist, on the other hand, was Josh Tarasoff from the Greenlea Lane Capital fund. He reduced his position in the company by 2.2 per cent of the value of his portfolio. What conclusions can we draw from this? Based on the investments of all super investors, it is therefore difficult to identify the best and worst assets. This may be due to the fundamental issue of different investment styles and strategies. Therefore, drawing conclusions from the investments undertaken should be preceded by an understanding of the style of the fund in question and its assumptions for entering and exiting positions. Grzegorz Dróżdż, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76,41% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
The Most Sold Company Turned Out To Be  Microsoft

Microsoft: Bing With Artificial Intelligence And The First Mistakes And Confusing Answers

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 17.02.2023 11:32
Bing with AI and ChatGPT are some of the first major tech releases that show just how persuasive, and sometimes disturbing, new AI chatbots can be. First errors Just over a week after Microsoft Corp. presented its new search engine Bing the first testers point out the errors and disturbing answers generated by this technology. Microsoft unveiled the updated Bing at an event last week at its headquarters in Redmond, Washington. The company says the change enables a new type of search, where people will ask questions to the search engine in natural language, and Bing will generate direct answers and suggestions, as opposed to directing users to different websites. Some parts of the demo were problematic: Microsoft showed how Bing could generate and compare public company leaderboards with regular language prompts, but the information Bing displayed contained errors. In the days that followed, people began sharing their experiences online, with many pointing out mistakes and confusing answers. When a user asked Bing to write a newspaper article about the Super Bowl "this just happened", Bing provided details of last year's soccer championship game. Read next: USD/JPY Is Trading Close To 134.00, EUR/USD Is Remaining Above $1.07| FXMAG.COM Microsoft's answer On its blog, Microsoft said that feedback on the new Bing has been mostly positive so far, with 71% of users giving it a "thumbs up". Microsoft said it has found that Bing starts coming up with weird responses after chat sessions of 15 or more questions, and that it may repeat itself or respond in a way that doesn't match its designed tone. The company said it was trying to train the technology to be more reliable in finding the latest sports scores and financial data. It is also considering adding a toggle that would allow users to decide if they want Bing to be more or less creative in their responses. Microsoft's quick response to user feedback reflects the importance the company sees in people's reactions to the emerging technology looking to capitalize on ChatGPT's groundbreaking success. The company intends to use this technology to ward off the dominance of Alphabet Inc. in a search through your Google entity. In a blog post, Microsoft said it expects the new Bing to improve over time as more people use it. "The only way to improve a product like this where the user experience is so different from anything anyone has seen before is to allow people like you to use the product and do exactly what everyone else is doing," the company said. Not only Microsoft Microsoft isn't the only company that has had trouble launching its new AI tool. When Google followed Microsoft's lead in exposing ChatGPT's rival Bard last week, the tool's answer to one question contained an obvious factual error. He claimed that the James Webb Space Telescope took the "first pictures" of an exoplanet outside the solar system. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration says on its website that the first pictures of the exoplanet were taken in 2004 by another telescope. Microsoft share price After February 14, Microsoft's stock hit its all-time high, the stock fell. MSFT shares fell from 272.17 to 259.72. The price level of 272.17 was last traded in September last year. Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com

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