microsoft

Latest news US broad-market indexes such as S&P 500 and Nasdaq are still near all-time highs, supported by robust corporate earnings. Microsoft, Google, Coca-Cola, and McDonald’s have beat analysts’ estimates this week. Today, we expect earnings from Apple, Amazon, and MasterCard. Look at these amazing movements! The Bank of Japan left the policy unchanged. The bank also cut its economic growth forecast because of the weak consumption and supply disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Crude Oil Inventories disappointed oil bulls with the hike in oil inventories. XBR/USD (Brent oil) and XTI/USD (WTI oil) dropped. Traders are awaiting the European Central Bank policy meeting today at 14:45 GMT+3. Besides, the US GDP will be out at 15:30 GMT+3. Technical analysis Gold keeps moving inside the ascending channel. It has surged above the psychological mark of $1800 and edged higher to the high of October 25 at $1810. If it manages to jump above this resistance level, the metal will rocket to the next round number of $1820. Support levels are the 200-day moving average of $1792 (which also lies at the lower line of the channel) and the 50-day moving average of $1780. AUD/USD has surged above the resistance level of 0.7500. It will struggle to break the next resistance level of 0.7535, but if it manages to break it, the way up to the four-month high of 0.7600 will be open. Support levels are 0.7500 and the low of October 22 at 0.7460. Download the FBS Trader app to trade anytime anywhere! For personal computer or laptop, use MetaTrader 5!

As stocks have trended higher, especially the tech stocks, soared in 2021, we must be reminded that Microsoft is once again one of the top companies in the world by market cap. Apple is number one in the world by market cap, and Microsoft continues to be right behind them. In October of 2021, Microsoft had bypassed Apple as the largest company by market cap globally, but Apple soon passed them once again. Microsoft is not the same old company we had known back when Bill Gates was in charge. They have changed and have created a more diverse brand and product portfolio leading that change. Bill Gates stepped down as CEO in 2000 and officially left his full-time role in Microsoft in 2008. Since then, Microsoft has diversified its portfolio to include many more products, including gaming, cloud services, and making Office more business-friendly. Microsoft under Gates was known for two big things: Microsoft Office and Windows; that was the entire portfolio. Satya Nadella, the current CEO of Microsoft, has revolutionized the software company and has made it a software company with a vision of working with businesses, making gaming a priority, and expanding Azure, its cloud network. How Does Microsoft Make Money? A diverse portfolio of many more products allowed Microsoft to branch out from only MS Office and Windows software and adapt to software technology's future. Microsoft has adapted to the world of sales in its subscription-based software model. They sell their Microsoft Office products to businesses and consumers, creating a pay-as-you-go subscription-based business model. Productivity and Business In 2020, Microsoft Office made a significant amount of their revenue from subscription-based software compared to 0% in 2000. MS Office at one point brought close to half of the revenue in 2000, but Office is not even 25% of the revenue that Microsoft takes in now, having over $35 billion in revenue each year. The new software has been revolutionizing businesses. First, they pay for Microsoft Office, and with that, they get Microsoft OneDrive, Teams, and Dynamics. Teams is just a fancy business video chat software like Zoom Video Communications (ZM), but you can only have Teams with Microsoft business accounts. Dynamics is another software that helps with business computing. It helps with business efficiency and works with customer relationship management or CRM, but it is not one of the top competitors to Salesforce (CRM). However, it has over $3 billion in revenue. Windows continues to be one of the most widely used software globally. That domination is starting to penetrate other parts of their customers giving them opportunities to dominate other businesses. With the subscription-based model, they will continue to bring in significant revenue, earnings, and cash flow. Before the proposed acquisition of Activision Blizzard (ATVI), LinkedIn was Microsoft's largest acquisition. It came in at $26 billion in 2016. Today, LinkedIn makes over $8 billion annually in revenue, up from the $3 billion pre-acquisition. LinkedIn has no major competitors and creates most of its money from job offer advertisements, other advertisements, and cash for LinkedIn premium. The Cloud Cloud software has become a bigger space for companies. It has led Microsoft to enter the space and business opportunities through the Azure Cloud system. Microsoft has thus gained a foothold in the cloud space. Azure Cloud system by Microsoft came out in 2009, and in 2021 the platform had become the second-largest cloud-based service in the world behind Amazon Web Services (AWS). With the cloud service, Microsoft's revenue grew by 48% in quarter 3 of 2021. It has reached a 21% market share and continues to gain more traction in the cloud space.   Azure consists of public, private, and hybrid cloud service products that help to power modern businesses. Dynamics and Azure are contributing to over 31% of Microsoft's revenue. In addition, customers are reaping many benefits through the cloud as it enhances the user experience with Microsoft products. The Gaming Industry Microsoft is becoming one of the leaders in the gaming industry. The Xbox is leading the charge with gaming, and Microsoft just made a deal to acquire Activision Blizzard for $69 Billion; if government regulators approve the sale, this acquisition will occur in 2023. The purchase would make Microsoft one of the largest gaming companies in the world. They would then own games like Call of Duty, War of Warcraft, and Candy Crush. In addition, making the deal would put them behind Sony and China's Tencent as a top-three gaming company globally. Microsoft is putting their company in a position to take on the Metaverse. Apple (APPL), Google (GOOG), Meta (FB), and Microsoft are creating technologies for the Metaverse. Satya Nadalla has emphasized that gaming technologies are part of the Metaverse. Is Microsoft a Good Stock to Buy? If we look at the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, we end up with an overvalued stock compared to Apple and Google. The P/E ratio is 32.0X, making it a bit more overvalued than Apple, which is trading at a valuation of 28.5X, as of this writing. They are close in the P/E ratio, but you would like to see the P/E ratio lower as an investor. Microsoft is a dividend growth stock that has raised the dividend for 19 consecutive years. The most recent quarterly dividend increase was $0.62 per share from $0.56 per share. The forward annual payout is now $2.48 per share with a conservative payout ratio of about 27%. The question is whether the hype of Microsoft is worth a buy as this company continues to create a diverse portfolio moving from one business to another. You can see the company dominating competitive markets like gaming and cloud systems. It has also innovated different types of software to help other businesses. Microsoft's future looks excellent if you are an investor, but the stock is likely overvalued based on the P/E ratio. In addition, the dividend yield is low at 0.84%. This value is less than the average dividend yield of the S&P 500 Index. Suppose individual stocks are too risky for you. In that case, an alternative is to try an excellent ETF or even a tech ETF to gain exposure to Microsoft and other overvalued tech companies. In many cases, ETFs are market cap-weighted, and Microsoft is one of the top holdings. You can always own a piece of Microsoft, Apple, Google, and Meta through an excellent ETF like an S&P 500 ETF. Microsoft is also a top 10 holding in some of the best dividend growth ETFs. These index funds will help you own a selection of some of the most profitable and most prominent companies in the US. Author Bio: Dividend Power is a self-taught investor and blogger on dividend growth stocks and financial independence. Some of his writings can be found on Seeking Alpha, TalkMarkets, ValueWalk, The Money Show, Forbes, Yahoo Finance, Entrepreneur, FXMag, and leading financial blogs. He also works as a part-time freelance equity analyst with a leading newsletter on dividend stocks. He was recently in the top 1.5% (126 out of over 8,212) of financial bloggers as tracked by TipRanks (an independent analyst tracking site) for his articles on Seeking Alpha. Disclaimer: Dividend Power is not a licensed or registered investment adviser or broker/dealer. He is not providing you with individual investment advice. Please consult with a licensed investment professional before you invest your money. 

Summary: Tech stocks Google and Microsoft expected to make their earnings announcements today. China and the lockdowns effect on the overall economy. Will Microsoft be able to weather the current economic storm? The markets took a hit with the prospects of further lockdowns in China and the possible ripple effects that can come from a slowing of China’s economy. The price of Microsoft stocks are up today in anticipation of the company’s earnings announcement due after the market closes today. The markets took a hit with the prospects of further lockdowns in China and the possible ripple effects that can come from a slowing of China’s economy. Read next: A Reward For A Transaction!? What Is Kishu Inu Coin? ($KISHU) Let's Take A Look At This New Altcoin | FXMAG.COM With the current market already taking hits from the current economic conditions regarding inflation and general uncertainty, the added prospect of a weakening Chinese economy is causing the stock market to be volatile as investor sentiment changes. Microsoft Equity Share Price Read next: (KO) Coca-Cola Earnings Posted Exceeding Expectations, Elon Musk’s Target on Twitter (TWTR) Coming To Life!?  Investors going long on Google in anticipation for this evening's earnings announcements. Investors are waiting with anticipation in light of the earnings announcement due from the CEO of Google later this afternoon. There is a bullish market sentiment on this stock as investors hope that Google will meet market expectations, this market sentiment is driving the price of Google stocks up by more than 3%. Over the past week the price has both risen and fallen for this stock due to the volatility of the current financial markets and again the current situation in China. Investors are interested in how well companies are weathering the current economic storm. Google Equity Share Price Sources: Finance.yahoo.com, barrons.com.

After years of heavy pressure on revenues in the telecom sector, we make a call for near-term revenue stabilisation. From an operational perspective, the main themes for the telecom sector are the build-out of 5G and fibre networks. To improve the relative position of the sector regulators should review their measures to provide a more level playing field Source: Shutterstock War has a limited impact on the telecom sector European- and US-based telecom operators are rather insulated from the conflict in Ukraine. Major operators have no sales in the region, the exception being VEON, which is largely exposed, since it is active in Russia and Ukraine. Telekom Austria had only 7.4% of its FY 2021 revenues coming from Belarus. For now, the impact of the war seems limited, with most companies maintaining their 2022 outlook. Typically, demand for telecom services grows in line with GDP. If a severe recession would hit the global economy, telecom operators and handset vendors probably have to adjust revenue expectations in line with GDP expectations, on average. In Europe, however, service revenues have historically already been under pressure because of strong competition. We do not foresee a substantial impact on the financial solidity of companies resulting from this crisis. The biggest risk for the sector comes from cyberwarfare The biggest risk for the sector comes from cyberwarfare. State sponsored hackers could engage at some point in cyberwarfare, something the US government warns about. Hackers could try to impair (local) infrastructure, while telecom companies have to up their defenses. Interestingly, so far, we have seen limited impact from cyberwarfare that could possibly have been initiated as a part of the war in Ukraine. However, we are starting to see revenue stabilisation in a couple of markets. For example, the market leaders in the Dutch, French, Belgian and German markets are close to revenue stabilisation. This is mainly driven by new broadband products, which are often offered with mobile services in a bundled product. Restructuring programmes continue to modernise the back-office of the operators and to phase out legacy technologies. Once programmes are over, this could be a tailwind for profitability. Despite good traction from bundled products and new high ARPU fibre products, many incumbents have segments that see price pressure, often in the business segments. This explains why we see positive trends in the sector, while revenues are not showing strong positive growth rates. Domestic revenue trends European telecom operators Source: Company, ING Aiming for a level playing field The European Commission aims for gigabit broadband for all households as well as for a fast 5G mobile connection in populated areas, which should be reached by 2030. It also aims to rein in some large technology companies. It has published proposals for the Digital Services Act (DSA) and the Digital Markets Act (DMA) which should reduce the dominance of the large technology platforms and create a level playing field with other sectors in Europe. The EU member states and European Parliament said they welcome the proposals. These are now subject to formal approval by the two co-legislators before they will be applicable. Hopefully, the competitive position of telecom companies will improve as well at some point in the future. Competition has been promoted... and this has lowered prices for telecom services as well Regulation has seriously impaired the profitability of telecom companies through tariff measures (for broadband wholesale access and roaming tariffs). Competition has been promoted, with four mobile operators in many European countries. This has lowered prices for telecom services as well. Governments have raised a lot of money through spectrum auctions and often incentivised new operators entering the market. Finally, product differentiation has been difficult because of net neutrality regulations. As a consequence, free cash flow has been under pressure from both weaker revenues, as well as heavy investments and dividends. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM A case in point is Telecom Italia, which had a solid investment grade rating in 2005, but is now rated in high yield territory. The Italian market is characterised by heavy competition, while the company explains that its fixed network faces relatively high regulatory pressure from a multitude of measures. The company faces substantial pressure on revenues, as can be seen in the figure above. The interim result is that the company is investigating a break-up, having ramifications for the speed of the broadband roll-out in Italy. The downward pressure on credit ratings has been more widespread in the European telecom sector since most companies have already seen rating downgrades. This is illustrated in the table below. Downward rating pressure for European telecom operators Source: S&P Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM As a result, telecom companies have been at the wrong spot in the value chain, while companies that sell telecom equipment, media content or cloud storage have performed very well, as is shown in the figure below. While large technology companies have the means to invest in new (transatlantic) fibre networks, incumbents often can’t fund all of their network investments from their cash flows. In our opinion regulators should pay attention to a call by the European Telecom Network Organisation (ETNO) in which they ask for a fair contribution for the network investment costs from companies that extensively use broadband networks. Since 2015, unregulated firms did profit from internet with market cap. growth Source: Refinitiv Sector trends contribute to revenue stability Nevertheless, broadband connectivity will likely improve across Europe and 5G is here to stay. The private sector is investing heavily, but there are also plans to invest €13bn in digital connectivity as part of the European Resilience and Recovery Plan. Typically, customer retention is relatively healthy for fibre products, especially when combined in a fixed-mobile converged offer. Net mobile networks and services could also contribute to the goal of revenue stability and eventually growing revenues. This year, 5G products and services will likely become widespread. However, it will be key for mobile operators to find good pricing policies for these new 5G services.   Read this article on THINK TagsTelecom sector European telecoms Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

We've had arguably one of the busiest quarterly earnings seasons in history, which showed how companies are behaving in a rapidly changing inflationary environment. The overall findings seem to have been positive, and likely contributed to a bear market rally in the broad stock market, accompanied by dovish Fed signals and a lower US CPI inflation reading. How did technology companies perform? Companies in this category typically base their high valuations on the prospect of growth and increasing profits. That's why analysts were especially curious to see how well-known brands would behave in a difficult environment and what resilience they would show.  Alphabet (GOOG) and Meta (META) are advertising giants, but the characteristics of their businesses are quite different. The former (Google's parent company) makes its money largely from SEO and the latter from social media campaigns such as Facebook and Instagram. The companies' results showed that SEO seems to be more of a priority for customers, and therefore revenue along with GOOG's profits appeared to be more stable. Google's revenue rose 12.6% year-on-year, while Meta's fell by less than 1%, while profits fell 13.6% and 35.7%, respectively. Despite passing some Wall Street analysts' estimates, Microsoft proved more recession-proof than expected. Bill Gates' company reported $51.9 billion in Q2 revenue (up 12.4% year-on-year) and net income of $16.7 billion (up 1.7% year-on-year).  "We continue to expect double-digit revenue and operating profit growth in constant currency and U.S. dollars," - said Microsoft CFO Amy Hood, at the earnings conference. She added that Microsoft will extend the life of its server and network hardware to six years from four years. The company made a similar move in 2020, intending to cut costs.   The biggest problems for technology companies also producing hardware, such as Microsoft (manufacturing Xbox) in addition to high exchange rates volatility, may remain rising production costs and a hard-to-quantify drop in demand due to the recession. One company that may have disappointed many with its results and caused a big drop in its stock price was Snapchat. The platform's shares lost 39% in a single session after the results were released.  Snapchat reported a drop in revenue to $1.11 billion, compared to the expected $1.14 billion. However, earnings per share, to which investors seem to pay the most attention, instead of falling by 1 cent, slipped twice as much, by 2 cents per share. This happened despite an increase in the number of active daily users - 3.2 million more than estimated. Snapchat, despite becoming increasingly unpopular in Central and Eastern Europe is still frequently used in Western Europe and the United States, but it has long struggled with relatively sizable revenue fluctuations and problems maintaining growth rates through app monetization issues. Additionally, with increasing competition from other platforms like TikTok, the company's future may not look too rosy. Most of the leading technology companies, despite an apparent slowdown in growth, maybe in relatively good shape. Their revenues are usually stable, and the biggest challenge is cost containment - hence the companies' announcements about layoffs and cost optimization, and focusing on their most profitable areas of business. According to CNBC, about 50% of technology companies are already planning to carry out layoffs, which appears to be related to the macroeconomic situation.   Rafał Tworkowski, Junior Market Analyst, Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.   Source: Technology companies earnings recap - what do they signal?

After both Boris Johnson and Penny Mordaunt pulled out of the British PM race, Rushi Sunak cried victory on Monday afternoon, and markets cried ‘Ready for Rishi’. The new UK Prime Minister The British sovereign bonds posted one of the biggest gains on record, the 10-year gilt yield tanked 8.50%, the 30-year yield dived 8.40%, sterling gained. Investors loved seeing Sunak become the new UK Prime Minister, they, however, hated seeing Xi Jinping confirm a third term. NASDAQ Nasdaq’s Golden Dragon China index lost more than 20% yesterday and closed the session more than 14% down. Direxion’s FTSE China Bear times 3 ETF jumped almost 30% in the session. Macro data On macro, the PMI data revealed yesterday did little good to the mood in Europe. The composite PMI fell to 47.1, which is the lowest level since April 2013. In the US, the services sector saw a sharp, and an unexpected decline to 46.6, from 49.3 printed a month earlier, and 49.6 expected by analysts. Japanese core CPI advanced to 2% versus 1.9% expected by analysts. The dollar-yen trades touch below the 149 mark after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) intervened to slowdown the depreciation in yen. US tech giants In the corporate space, two big US tech giants are due to announce earnings: Alphabet and Microsoft. Their revenues are expected to have slowed in the latest quarter, but how much of the slowdown is already priced in? Walking into the results, it’s important to remember that soft results don’t necessarily mean negative market reaction. If the soft results still beat the market estimates, we could see Google, and Microsoft shares rally. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:39 Markets are ready for Rishi! 2:52 …but not for Xi. 4:32 PMI data disappoint 6:00 Japanese inflation advance 7:25 Google earnings preview 9:07 Microsoft earnings preview 10:20 Option traders bet for Tesla below $200! Ipek Ozkardeskaya  Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Google #Microsoft #earnings #UK #PM #Rishi #Sunak #GBP #USD #JPY #BoJ #ECB #China #XiJinping #selloff #Tesla #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5  ___  Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

The technology companies that have acted as growth drivers for stock markets in recent years are increasingly losing their leading positions. Although it would be too naive to talk about the "beginning of the end" for the IT giants, the initial reaction to the reports of Microsoft and Alphabet makes it seem more like a threat to the recovery of the Nasdaq and S&P500 indices. Shares of both giants are losing around 6.6% on the post-market. Microsoft's revenue and profit beat expectations, but investors see more negative numbers in the dynamic (-3.4% QoQ on revenue and -14.4% YoY on profit). Alphabet noted a tough time in the ad market, with an overall profit fall of 26.6% y/y despite revenue growth of 6.6% y/y. The latter is the lowest rate in 9 years. Experienced traders have long noticed that companies are likely to present the situation to industry analysts, so they make low projections. And easily beat them shortly after in ¾ of the cases. It is, therefore, not uncommon for neutral numbers or a slight overperformance to lead to a share price slump. Also, in growth sectors, markets are paying increased attention to companies' forecasts. And they have been disappointed. Both Microsoft and Alphabet cited falling PC and ad sales. And that's bad news for the future, as it doesn't set the stage for a turnaround in the coming months. Microsoft's comments about cloud computing cuts also pulled Amazon shares, which are losing 4.3% in the post-market. On a more general level, the simple rule of thumb remains that the IT sector is inversely correlated with interest rate movements and is more vulnerable during the economic downturn for which many are now preparing. Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Choosing from major US indices - the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq - the first looks the most promising, including more manufacturing companies and a smaller weighting on the IT sector. This driver change can already be seen in that the Dow Jones made its lows in early October, while the other two made their lows on 13 October: the strongest are recovering first. And it is not the Technology sector right now. Nonetheless, while this trio stays about 20% below the peak and the US Fed forwarding market expectations to slower rate hikes, it looks like the bottom is already behind us.

Summary: NASDAQ weighed down by poor MSFT & GOOGL earnings. Xi's years-long campaign to destroy the faction was successful. Spotify surpassed expectations in terms of both paid and free user growth. NASDAQ down more than 1.5% on Tuesday On Wednesday, Nasdaq futures dropped more than 1% after poor financial statements from tech titans Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Microsoft prompted losses at other megacap firms and fueled concerns about slowing economic growth. While Alphabet, the parent company of Google, reported disappointing ad sales and warned of a slowdown in advertising expenditure, Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) reported its lowest sales growth in five years and anticipated second-quarter revenue below Wall Street estimates. In premarket trade, the businesses' shares plummeted 5.7% and 6.0%, respectively, while those of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN), who are expected to release earnings this week, dropped 3.7% and 0.6%. The disappointing results come after Snap Inc. (NYSE:SNAP) issued a warning last week over sluggish ad demand and a string of mixed earnings reports, which have added to concerns that the economy is being negatively impacted by decades-high inflation and ad-hoc interest rate hikes to combat it. ⚠️BREAKING:*NASDAQ 100 FUTURES TUMBLE 1.8% AS GOOGLE, MICROSOFT SINK AFTER EARNINGS$QQQ $GOOGL $MSFT pic.twitter.com/2rd4B4bJjP — Investing.com (@Investingcom) October 26, 2022 China’s new president pushes out youth league members The three most notable absences from China's new Communist Party leadership have one thing in common: they all rose through the ranks of the Youth League and were regarded as representatives of a once-dominant clique, whose influence Xi Jinping has now successfully quashed. Even the larger Central Committee was bypassed as Xi installed supporters in key party positions during the recent twice-a-decade leadership reshuffle. Premier Li Keqiang and Vice Premier Wang Yang, both 67 and young enough to be re-appointed to the elite seven-member Politburo Standing Committee, were left out. Hu Chunhua, a fellow vice premier and former high flyer who, at 59, had been considered a prospect for premier and, at one point, even a potential future president, failed to make it to the 24-man Politburo. Analysts said the omissions demonstrate Xi's years-long campaign to destroy the faction was successful. China's Xi deals knockout blow to once-powerful Youth League faction https://t.co/g47pd77mil pic.twitter.com/uqSDoVgG2g — Reuters (@Reuters) October 26, 2022 Spotify up 20% on Users Spotify surpassed expectations in terms of both paid and free user growth in the third quarter, pointing to the region's strength in particular. A net addition of 23 million members, or 20% more than Spotify's previous projection, brought the total number of monthly active users (MAUs) to 456 million, which is the company's highest Q3 growth to date. The number of Spotify Premium subscribers increased to 195 million, up 7 million during the time (about 1 million more than expected) and 13% annually. Ek stated on the earnings call that Spotify is considering increasing the cost of its U.S. subscription plans in response to price increases by YouTube Premium and Apple Music. “[I]t’s something we will [discuss] with our label partners,” he said. “I feel good about this upcoming year, and what it means about pricing for our service.” Spotify (SPOT) reported a quarterly loss of $0.99 per share vs the $0.88 loss that the Zacks Consensus Estimate had predicted. This contrasts with a loss of $0.48 per share in the prior year. These numbers have non-recurring expenses taken into account. This quarterly report shows a -12.50% profits surprise. This music streaming service operator surprised analysts by posting a loss of $0.91 per share during the most recent quarter when it was anticipated that it would lose $0.68, a difference of -33.82%. The management's remarks on the earnings call will be largely responsible for determining if the stock's current price movement based on previously revealed numbers and anticipated future earnings can be sustained. Compared to the S&P 500's -20.3% decrease since the start of the year, Spotify share prices have fallen by around 59.6%. Spotify reaches 456M total monthly users in Q3, up 20% YoY and topping expectations https://t.co/vRe14ATA7s via @Variety CEO also said subscribers can expect price hikes for the service sometime in 2023. $SPOT shares are down 5% in after market trading. — Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) October 25, 2022 Sources: finance.yahoo.com, twitter.com, reuters.com, investing.com

Using the cloud is better when there are multiple providers of remotely hosted infrastructure technology, as opposed to relying on one company according to the U.S. Defense Department. What's more, there is a lot of information about the Chinese economy, as well as about QFII.  Read next: Nigeria Bans Cash Withdrawal Higher Than 225$ To Encourage CBDC Use | FXMAG.COM In this article: Money Talks podcast Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor One of the greatest transformations in retail A cloud deal The potential impact of China’s reopening China is once again struggling with the problem of growing infections. To this end, they have closed their economy under the zero-covid policy. As the second largest economy in the world, it has a significant impact on smaller economies and markets. Recently, there has been information about the easing of restrictions, and thus the financial markets, especially those in Asia, have experienced a revival. In a podcast hosted by APAC Chief Economist Andrew Tilton, you can learn about other impacts of reopening the Chinese economy. Listen to our Chief APAC Economist Andrew Tilton discuss the potential impact of China’s reopening on this week’s Money Talks podcast from The Economist: https://t.co/2wW6YFLDhr https://t.co/p4BTFHkuAv — Goldman Sachs (@GoldmanSachs) December 8, 2022   Opening-up of China's qualified foreign institutional investor program Foreign financial institutions expect further reform and opening-up of China's qualified foreign institutional investor program. Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) is a term used to describe a program launched by the Chinese government in 2002 that enables foreign institutional investors to gain direct access to trade “A-shares” of Chinese stocks, denominated in China's renminbi/yuan (RMB), on Chinese stock exchanges. Over the past 20 years, the number of participants in the program has expanded. Currently, the types of investments that can be traded under the QFII system include listed equities, government bonds, corporate bonds, convertible bonds, commodity futures and other financial instruments. With the development and changes in the markets, it is required to introduce references also in QFII. Deutsche Bank’s Li Zhan says that as China opens up its #QFII programme even more, it will help enrich the structure of China’s capital market. Read more: https://t.co/U0gn0oedN0 #SecuritiesServices @DBCorporateBank pic.twitter.com/jEVJ9ETuHD — Deutsche Bank (@DeutscheBank) December 8, 2022 One of the greatest transformations in retail Today, shoppers have much more choice in what they buy, how they buy and where. It still matters to belong to a given brand. Companies have to compete much more to get a customer. Walmart is now the world's largest retailer - with more than 10,000 stores in 24 countries - but its growth story continues. You can learn about the vision and goals of CEO Of Walmart from the conversation about which the author of the tweet writes. Walmart pulled off one of the greatest transformations in retail. Morgan Stanley speaks with CEO, Doug McMillon, about his vision for future growth. Watch the full episode at https://t.co/F4puMPZFw8. pic.twitter.com/jE4GUm80ae — Morgan Stanley (@MorganStanley) December 7, 2022 Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Oracle received a cloud-computing contract Of the four companies receiving cloud-computing contracts from the Pentagon. Last year, the Pentagon changed its approach, asking for bids from Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Oracle to meet its cloud needs. The purpose of this agreement is to provide the Department of Defense with globally available enterprise-wide cloud services across all security domains and classification levels. Having more than one cloud can make organizations more confident that they can withstand service disruptions caused by downtime. Correction: Google, Oracle, Amazon and Microsoft awarded Pentagon cloud deal of up to $9 billion combinedhttps://t.co/LhIaVvb2yc — CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) December 8, 2022  

The Federal Trade Commission on Thursday sued to block Microsoft’s planned $69 billion takeover of video game company Activision Blizzard. Read next: UK Santander Bank Fined USD 132 Million, Idris Elba in Cyberpunk 2077:Phantom Liberty| FXMAG.COM The deal has come under pressure The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) to prevent the takeover of Activision Blizzard Inc by Microsoft Corp. filed a lawsuit. Law enforcement said the deal was illegal because it would give Microsoft the ability to control how consumers outside of users of their own Xbox consoles and subscription services access Activision games. The committee's vote was three to one to allow the lawsuit. The FTC said it filed the complaint as part of the administrative process, rather than taking the case to federal court. The FTC's decision to send the complaint to its in-house judge instead of seeking an urgent federal court order to stop the merger could drag the case out for months. The FTC's challenge may be a test of President Joe Biden's mandate to control big tech mergers. Microsoft's last major antitrust battle came more than two decades ago when a federal judge ordered it to break up after the company's anti-competitive actions related to its dominant Windows software. This judgment was overturned on appeal, although the court imposed other, less drastic penalties on the company. Progressive groups are putting pressure on the FTC to block the deal. Sony has been the most vocal critic of the planned deal with Activision, arguing that it could hurt competition if Microsoft restricts access to Activision's games, especially "Call of Duty". Microsoft CEO Brad Smith signaled in a Thursday statement that the company was likely to challenge the FTC's actions. Microsoft has repeatedly said it has no plans to deny Sony and others access to Activision games and that its deal with the company won't hurt competition. The company has publicly pledged to give Sony and Nintendo access to the new "Call of Duty" games on their current hardware. Microsoft said it still believes the deal, which it estimates at $68.7 billion when adjusted for Activision's net cash, will boost competition. Microsoft is committed to addressing competition issues and presented proposed concessions to the FTC earlier this week. According to Bloomberg Intelligence analysts, the combined company would control around 11% of the global digital game publishing business. Microsoft's deal with Activision, which would be its largest ever acquisition, is also being investigated by antitrust authorities in the UK and the European Union. Microsoft is one of the stocks the deal with Activision Blizzard is focused on. Microsoft’s shares closed up about 1%, while Activision’s shares were down by about 1.5%. The downtrend, like many other tech stocks, appeared on the MSFT chart. They reached the lowest level at the beginning of November, where they made up for losses in subsequent periods. At the beginning of December, they reached the highest level in the last quarter. MSFT is currently trading at 247.87. Microsoft shares chart The last quarter of this year does not look too good for Activision shares. Activision shares chart Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com

DAILY MARKET NEWSLETTER December 13, 2022                 Pre-Market Session News Sentiment Technical Views           EUR/USD   Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)   Brent (ICE)                 Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.                     Price Movement Analyst Views Target Pivot   Dax (Eurex) 14,324.00 -45.00 (-0.31%) Read the analysis 14,397.00 14,199.00     FTSE 100 (ICE Europe) 0.00 0.00 (0.00%) Read the analysis 7,499.00 7,431.00     S&P 500 (CME) 4,018.25 +50.00 (+1.26%) Read the analysis 4,045.00 3,982.00     Nasdaq 100 (CME) 11,809.50 +126.50 (+1.08%) Read the analysis 11,860.00 11,730.00     Dow Jones (CME) 34,218.00 +477.00 (+1.41%) Read the analysis 34,420.00 34,010.00     Crude Oil (WTI) 73.46 +2.44 (+3.44%) Read the analysis 75.40 72.80     Gold 1,781.22 -16.102 (-0.90%) Read the analysis 1,777.00 1,789.00                     MARKET WRAP           Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, CommoditiesOn Monday, major U.S. stock indexes rose over 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 528 points (+1.58%) to 34,005, the S&P 500 rose 56 points (+1.43%) to 3,990, and the Nasdaq 100 was up 143 points (+1.24%) to 11,706.The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield added 3.7 basis points to 3.615%.U.S. inflation data will be released on Tuesday, and the Federal Reserve will set interest rates on Wednesday.Transportation (+2.86%), energy (+2.49%), and software (+2.45%) sectors led the market higher.Microsoft (MSFT) rose 2.89% after announcing it will purchase a 4% stake in London Stock Exchange Group.Coupa Software (COUP) surged 26.67%. The cloud-based business software firm said it has agreed to be taken private by buyout firm Thoma Bravo in a deal that values the company at $8 billion.Amgen (AMGN) agreed to buy Horizon Pharma (HZNP) for $116.50 per share or $27.8 billion in total. Amgen's share price closed 0.67% higher, and Horizon Pharma jumped 15.49%.Rivian Automotive (RIVN) declined 6.16%. The company said it paused discussions with Mercedes-Benz on forming a strategic partnership over electric pickup trucks. European stocks closed lower. The DAX 40 fell 0.45%, the CAC 40 declined 0.41%, and the FTSE 100 was down 0.41%.Oil prices were supported by a prolonged outage of the Canada-to-U.S. Keystone crude-oil pipeline. U.S. WTI crude futures gained $2.40 (+3.38%) to $73.46 a barrel.Gold price slid $16 to $1,781 an ounce.Market Wrap: ForexThe U.S. dollar held up well against other major currencies. The dollar index climbed to 105.02.USD/JPY jumped 115 pips to 137.71.EUR/USD dipped 5 pips to 1.0535. GBP/USD rose 9 pips to 1.2268. U.K. gross domestic product grew 0.5% on month (vs +0.4% expected) and 1.5% on year (vs +1.6% expected) in October. Industrial production showed no growth in October, as expected,AUD/USD dropped 47 pips to 0.6748. This morning, the Westpac consumer confidence index rebounded 3.0% on month in December (vs -6.9% in November).USD/CHF added 23 pips to 0.9365, while USD/CAD was down 14 pips to 1.3631.Bitcoin regained the $17,000 level.Morning TradingIn Asian trading hours, USD/JPY held up well at 137.70, while AUD/USD remained under pressure at 0.6742.EUR/USD was little changed at 1.0533, while GBP/USD traded lower to 1.2256.Gold price was flat at $1,781 an ounce.Bitcoin kept trading at levels around $17,100.Expected TodayIn the U.K., the latest jobless rate is expected to edge up to 3.7%.In Germany, the ZEW economic sentiment index is expected to improve to -27 in December. And the November inflation rate is expected to be finalized at 10.0% on year.In the U.S., the inflation rate is expected to tick down to 7.6% on year in November.           UK MARKET NEWS           Royal Dutch Shell, an oil giant, announced the sale of its stake in two offshore production sharing contracts in Malaysia's Baram Delta to Petroleum Sarawak Exploration & Production Sdn Bhd for $475 million.InterContinental Hotels Group, a hotel operator, announced the appointment of Michael Glover as chief financial officer.Auto & Parts, insurance and travel & leisure shares gained most in London on Friday.From a relative strength vs FTSE 100 point of view, BAE Systems (+0.65% to 831p) crossed above its 50-day moving average.           ECONOMIC CALENDAR           Time Event Forecast Importance   02:00 Unemployment Rate (Oct) 3.7% HIGH     02:00 Claimant Count Change (Nov) 8k HIGH     02:00 Employment Change (Sep) -20k HIGH     02:00 Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (Oct) 6.1% MEDIUM     02:00 Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (Oct) 5.8% LOW     02:00 HMRC Payrolls Change (Nov) 45k LOW     05:00 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction   LOW     05:30 Financial Stability Report   LOW     05:30 BoE FPC Meeting Minutes   LOW     06:00 NFIB Business Optimism Index (Nov) 89 LOW     08:30 Inflation Rate MoM (Nov) 0.5% HIGH     08:30 Core Inflation Rate MoM (Nov) 0.4% HIGH     08:30 Core Inflation Rate YoY (Nov) 6.2% HIGH     08:30 Inflation Rate YoY (Nov) 7.6% HIGH     08:30 CPI (Nov) 299 MEDIUM     08:55 Redbook YoY (Dec/10)   LOW     10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (Dec) 41 MEDIUM     13:00 30-Year Bond Auction   LOW     16:30 API Crude Oil Stock Change (Dec/09)   MEDIUM                                     NEWS SENTIMENT           London Stock Exchange Group PLC LSEG : LSE 7,626.00 GBp -2.85% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Legal & General Group PLC LGEN : LSE 252.00 GBp -1.60% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   BHP Group PLC BHP : LSE 2,537.00 GBp -1.67% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Neutral       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Argo Group Ltd ARGO : LSE 11.00 GBp 0.00% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Bayerische Motoren Werke AG BMW : XETRA 84.43 EUR -0.89% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                           TECHNICAL VIEWS           EUR/USD Intraday: rebound.   Pivot: 1.0530   Our preference: Long positions above 1.0530 with targets at 1.0575 & 1.0590 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Below 1.0530 look for further downside with 1.0505 & 1.0490 as targets.   Comment: The RSI shows upside momentum.                     Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)‎ (Z2)‎ Intraday: intraday support around 3902.00.   Pivot: 3902.00   Our preference: Long positions above 3902.00 with targets at 3951.00 & 3970.00 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Below 3902.00 look for further downside with 3879.00 & 3864.00 as targets.   Comment: The RSI lacks downward momentum.                     Brent (ICE)‎ (G3)‎ Intraday: further upside.   Pivot: 77.60   Our preference: Long positions above 77.60 with targets at 80.00 & 80.80 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Below 77.60 look for further downside with 76.80 & 76.10 as targets.   Comment: The RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.        

This year is exceptional in terms of many events, in particular events on the financial markets. ARKK is not doing too well, and Microsoft will take 4% stake in the London Stock Exchange. Read next: Euro Holds Above $1.05, USD/JPY Pair Rose Above 136| FXMAG.COM The Losses Investors have bought up growth stocks and other speculative assets en masse this year. In an environment of rising profits where they suddenly have opportunities to earn returns with little risk, many lose their appetite for cash-losing companies that promise a chance of return in the future. Shares in the fund, a pandemic-era favourite, made up mostly of underperforming, growth-minded tech companies, have fallen 63% this year. Wood's flagship fund is near a five-year low. The three largest holdings in the fund - known by the ticker symbol ARKK - are Zoom Video Communications Inc., Tesla Inc. and Exact Sciences Corp. , companies that Mrs. Wood believes have the potential to change the world. At the beginning of the year, Cathie Wood said that venture stocks in exchange-traded funds sold by ARK Investment Management LLC are so cheap that they will inevitably go up. A surprising number of investors wanted to give it a try. Some $16 billion flowed into ARK Innovation from the second quarter of 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic took hold, through the first quarter of 2021, when the fund’s assets peaked at $28 billion. Investors heeding a “buy the dip” rallying cry poured money into the fund in each of the first five months of the year—a net $1.89 billion—as markets tumbled. Shares of Zoom and Tesla have lost about half their value this year, while Exact Sciences, an unprofitable supplier of cancer screening and diagnostic tools, is down 42%. While many on Wall Street are curbing risks and preparing for a recession, Ms. Wood has increased her risk in recent weeks by buying more shares in cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase Global Inc. and a bitcoin futures ETF. According to FactSet, ARKK added 931,000 Coinbase shares worth about $43 million in November. ARKK is the second-largest holder of Coinbase shares, which are down 83% since the beginning of the year. Similar bets yielded huge gains in a low-interest-rate environment in 2020 and 2021. ARKK's stock more than doubled in 2020 before concerns about inflation — and the prospect of higher rates — stalled its gains. Currently, ARKK is at its lowest levels, approaching pre-2018 levels. The lowest levels of the year may increase investors' concerns. ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) Microsoft Corp and LSEG Microsoft Corp. will take a 4% stake in the London Stock Exchange’s corporate parent. The agreement between the London Stock Exchange Group and Microsoft Corp connects one of the largest American technology companies with the largest market exchange in Europe. LSEG has tied its future to data sales, a way to diversify away from the low-margin stock market business. In 2021, it completed the purchase of the financial, information and terminal company Refinitiv Holdings Ltd. from the Blackstone Inc. consortium. and Thomson Reuters Corp. Microsoft takes the unusual step of buying an ownership stake in a customer by acquiring LSEG's stake from the Blackstone-Reuters consortium. Microsoft did not disclose how much it will pay for the shares. LSEG shares were up 1.8% Monday afternoon in London. Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com

Crypto Industry News: Microsoft has updated the terms of its policies to highlight that it does not allow cryptocurrency mining on its online services without prior approval. The update went live on December 1 and applies to all users, including paid Microsoft customers. In the "Terms of use" section, Microsoft wrote that it requires users to obtain the company's written pre-approval in order to use any Microsoft Online Services for cryptocurrency mining. It seems that the only time a company would give written approval is for the "Testing and Investigating for Security Detection" purpose. The update prohibits users from mining and adding transaction records to proof-of-work blockchains on Microsoft's online services, largely related to the Microsoft Azure platform. Microsoft has reportedly said that its latest cryptocurrency mining restrictions are designed to protect online services from threats such as cyber fraud, attacks, and unauthorized access to customer resources. Technical Market Outlook: The Ethereum cryptocurrency has made a new local high at the level of $1,350. This is the key short-term technical resistance for bulls, so in order to continue the up move the bulls need to break through towards $1,400. The bulls were rejected from this level towards the 100 SMA on the H4 time frame chart. The level of $1,308 will act as the technical support, so please keep an eye on this level. The momentum is weak and negative already, so the corrective cycle might extend towards the technical support located at $1,240. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $1,291 WR2 - $1,269 WR1 - $1,257 Weekly Pivot - $1,248 WS1 - $1,235 WS2 - $1,226 WS3 - $1,204 Trading Outlook: The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new yearly low was established at $1,074. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000. Relevance up to 10:00 2022-12-17 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/305226

The electric car market is mainly associated with Tesla, its situation is also observed by investors. The stock markets are still attracting new investors, the current year is coming to an end, so it is worth checking what should be confessed to this market in 2023. In this article: US Treasury yields fell Morningstar look at stocks market Tesla news US Treasury yields fell Investors are bracing themselves for the potential pressures of a recession, persistent inflation and what this could mean for Federal Reserve policy, especially with regard to interest rates, in 2023. They will be scouring the latest economic data releases this year for clues. Many investors are hoping the data will signal an easing of inflationary pressures, as it would suggest the Fed may slow down further or stop rate hikes altogether. These factors affect the market situation of bonds. US Treasury yields fell on Wednesday as investors became concerned about economic growth and the direction of monetary policy for 2023. Treasury yields slip as investors gauge 2023 Fed policy https://t.co/uR6xgrxlPy — CNBC (@CNBC) December 28, 2022 Read next: The Crisis Of The Semiconductor Industry, Chip Inventory Levels Are Well Above Our Target Level| FXMAG.COM Morningstar look at stocks market The new year is getting closer. Everyone prepares as best they can to start it in the best possible way, makes plans. The stock market is under the watch of Morningstar analysts. How it presented itself this year and what it is heading for in 2023 is detailed in the following tweet. Early in the year, Morningstar analysts deemed many of the stocks they cover to be overvalued. But after the broad market has fallen more than 20 percent since the start of the year, analysts believe valuations have moved too far in the opposite direction. Over the last 20 years, Morningstar analysts found that US stocks were undervalued only 10 different times, or about 36% of the time. According to Morningstar, among the most underrated industries today are online content and information, including stocks like Alphabet (GOOGL), Google's parent company, and Meta Platforms (META), Facebook's parent company. Where are stocks looking cheap or expensive as we head into 2023?Here are 7 charts detailing our analysts' latest stock market valuations: https://t.co/UZMK7Ygufy pic.twitter.com/uUsnYGWKZI — Morningstar, Inc. (@MorningstarInc) December 28, 2022 Tesla Tesla is the most popular manufacturer of electric cars. Sales have increased in recent years, but many factors affect car prices. Fuel prices are easing, interest rates are rising, Tesla output is increasing, and EV competition is growing, all of which have implications for the price of used Teslas. Soaring gasoline prices as a result of the war in Ukraine have boosted demand for the Tesla, one of the few long-range electric vehicles on the market. Buyers of some new Teslas took advantage of the booming market to sell their relatively new cars at a profit and then order new ones, fueling the demand for new Tesla cars. Used Tesla prices are falling faster than those of other automakers, and clean energy status symbols languish in dealerships longer, according to the information. WATCH: Fuel prices are easing, interest rates are rising, Tesla output is increasing, and EV competition is growing, leading used Tesla prices to fall faster than the market. It's creating a cascading effect on new Tesla prices https://t.co/jCLZphpcRX pic.twitter.com/ZgXRr3d2Fc — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) December 28, 2022

Twitter has been struggling with new problems since the beginning of the year. This time he was accused of not paying the rent. Other tech companies are also having problems. 2022 was not the best year for Meta or Mircrosoft stocks. Twitter has another problem While Elon Musk has been working to cut costs on Twitter since he took over the company in October. More problems arise. Recently there has been an inflromation that the social platform will experience technical difficulties in using the computer version. Today there was information about financial problems. The owner, Columbia Reit-650 California LLC, says the social media company failed to pay $136,260 in owed rent for office space at 650 California St. The lawsuit alleging breach of contract was filed in the California Supreme Court in San Francisco. Other companies, including a software provider and a transportation company, have also sued Twitter in recent weeks in an effort to recover overdue payments. Can this prove that under the leadership of a businessman, Twitter is struggling with serious financial problems. What's more, according to Twitter data, hasn't booked an annual profit since 2019. Even though the new year has brought some shocking news about Twitter, its shares are above 50 and thus are the highest. Read next: Walmart Has Ambitions To Become An E-Commerce Leader| FXMAG.COM It was a tough time for tech stocks The future outlook is an important aspect when buying stocks, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. For most of the past decade, investors have focused on high-growth tech stocks whose strong year-over-year returns have convinced them they have no choice but to grow. Soaring stocks like Facebook's parent company Meta Platforms Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Netflix Inc. and owner of Google Alphabet Inc. caused the major indices to hit dozens of new highs. The trade has become so popular that it has its own acronym: FAANG. Meta dropped 64% in 2022; Netflix dropped 51%; the other three shares fell at least 27%. Together, FAANG shares have lost more than $3 trillion in market value, helping to pull the wider stock market down with it. As consumers and businesses tighten their belts to prepare for a potential recession, tech companies that seemed immune to the economic woes of the pandemic have seen their revenues plummet. Companies like Microsoft reported their worst quarterly results in years. Amazon and Meta announced layoffs. When interest rates were close to zero, investors were more willing to pay for growth stocks and risky assets in search of higher returns. However, with the Fed raising interest rates at the fastest pace since the 1980s, the market environment began to favor investments, which now generate cash for the holder. Even after tech stocks ran out last year, the sector still looks expensive compared to the wider market. Although the tech stock market has not been positive lately, MSFT prices have kept their prices above 200. The second half of last year was quite weak for this company's stock and mostly in a downtrend, but prices remained mostly above 225. MSFT share price Meta shares also had their worst period recently, with the price mostly staying around 120. Meta share price Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com

We could already hear the following words from a Microsoft representative at an Activision conference early last year: "This morning, we announced that we will acquire Activision Blizzard in an all-cash transaction valued at $68.7 billion. This will be the largest acquisition in our history, and we’re investing to create a thriving gaming ecosystem, one where world-class content can more easily reach every gamer across every platform”. This process now appears to be in one of its final stages, but has just been blocked by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) over monopoly allegations. The first pre-trial hearing will take place on 3 January. Will there be a bigger takeover in the tech giant's history? A few words about Activision Blizzard Activision Blizzard (Blizzard) is the world's leading developer of computer and console games. The company was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Santa Monica, California. The company is known for blockbusters such as the Call of Duty series, World of Warcraft and Crash Bandicoot. It has games for a variety of platforms, including PC, game consoles, mobile devices and personal computers. Activision also has a number of publishers and development studios that produce games under the company's brand. The company makes money from sales of its games and from in-game subscriptions and microtransactions, where players can buy additional content or services with real money. Activision Blizzard is also actively involved in the development of eSports and organises a number of eSports tournaments and leagues in which many professional players participate. The company also earns money from ticket sales to these events and from sponsorship and advertising deals. In addition to game sales and participation in e-sports, Activision Blizzard also generates profits from the licensing of its branded games and characters, which are used in various products such as toys, clothing and accessories. Read next: Twitter Did Not Pay $136,260 Rent, Microsoft Reported Its Worst Quarterly Results In Years| FXMAG.COM Legal problems with the takeover In January 2022, Microsoft announced the acquisition of the games developer for US$68.7bn (US$95 per share). The company appears to be in a position to complete this acquisition, currently holding USD 107 billion. In order for this to happen, the company needed approval from 16 regulators from various countries. Source: Conotoxia MT5, Microsoft, Daily Gaming is an important business segment for Microsoft, as it brought in more than $16 billion in the last year. The acquisition of Activision Blizzard could give the company additional revenue and allow it to hold back the company's games on competing platforms, which could make Xbox a monopoly in the gaming market. For the moment, therefore, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has filed a lawsuit to block the acquisition. As the body stated in a release: "Microsoft has already shown that it can and will withhold content from its gaming rivals. Today we seek to stop Microsoft from gaining control over a leading independent game studio and using it to harm competition in multiple dynamic and fast-growing gaming markets." On this call, Microsoft CEO Bobby Kotick wrote in an official letter to the company's employees: "This sounds alarming, so I want to reinforce my confidence that this deal will close. The allegation that this deal is anti-competitive doesn't align with the facts, and we believe we'll win this challenge." It seems we will find out more details after the first pre-trial hearing. The bet Warren Buffett is making At Berkshire Hathaway's (BerkshireHa) annual general meeting in May, legendary investor Warren Buffett announced that he had purchased a share in the games developer. In his own words: "Occasionally I’ll see an arbitrage deal and do it." The billionaire now owns US$4.47 billion worth of shares, representing more than 7 per cent of the company's stock. If the deal had gone through at US$95 per share, buying at the last closing price, we would have had the potential, as much as 24 per cent profit. Source: Conotoxia MT5, Blizzard, Daily Grzegorz Dróżdż, Junior Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71.86% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Salesforce said about 80 Fortune 100 companies use Slack. The move to combine an ever-widening range of IT software and services into a single platform could backfire. Salesforce acquired Slack Salesforce, which confirmed plans to acquire Slack in December 2020, was a pioneer in selling cloud-based customer relationship management software on a subscription basis. Salesforce.com Inc has agreed to buy Slack Technologies Inc., a $27.7 billion messaging company, shows how the biggest players in cloud computing are racing to get stronger in the face of the remote work boom during the pandemic. It was the biggest move ever made by Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff, a pioneer in selling software subscriptions that run on remote servers, to transform the company he founded 21 years ago into a broadly established powerhouse in enterprise technology tools. The deal is almost twice the size of Salesforce's largest acquisition to date. It was intended to turn the combined company into a more threatening competitor to Microsoft Corp. The acquisition was aimed at taking over the fast-growing market for communication and collaboration software during the Covid-19 pandemic as employers sent employees home and switched to remote systems. Currently, companies in the market for customer relationship management software - Salesforce's flagship product - do not seem to be thrilled with the addition of messaging and collaboration. Slack can still be purchased as a standalone app, outside of Salesforce CRM tools. Dark side Since the acquisition, Slack's revenue growth has steadily declined. Salesforce reported approximately $402 million in revenue from Slack subscriptions and support in the fiscal third quarter ending Oct. 31. That's an increase of 6.9% quarter-over-quarter, but reflects a slowdown from 9.3% growth in the second quarter and 11.7% growth in the first quarter, based on revenue data from the company's earnings reports. Meanwhile, on Wednesday, Salesforce said it would lay off 10% of its workforce as customers take a more cautious approach to spending. What's more, CIOs also take care of uncertain markets by reducing cloud spending and removing unused applications. Wong said that incorporating Slack and other apps into the CRM platform could actually put buyers off. The CIO and other corporate tech leaders will take a closer look at spending. As the number of functions increases, companies are increasingly forced to hire more technical staff to manage an ever-wider range of tools, which can be prohibitively expensive during economic downturns. Read next: After The Correction, Jacek Ma's Share In Shareholder Votes Will Fall To 6.2%| FXMAG.COM Salesforce and Slack vs. Microsoft Salesforce and Slack, both based in San Francisco, have long been competing with Microsoft. In 2016, Salesforce, after losing to a larger rival in the purchase of LinkedIn Corp., urged regulators to investigate the proposed deal for antitrust laws. The transaction eventually passed regulatory scrutiny. This summer, Slack filed a complaint with the European Union over Microsoft's alleged antitrust behavior, which was using its market dominance to pressure Teams. Salesforce share price As with most tech companies, Salesforce's shares also had a downward trend last year. The lowest share price appeared last month. Salesforce ended 2022 with a price of 132.59. The beginning of the new year brings positive signals. Share prices have increased and are now at 140.51 Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com

Summary:  A further squeeze in US equities yesterday, perhaps inspired by the recent drop in US treasury yields, peaked out mid-session and was entirely erased by the end of the day, establishing an important line in the sand on charts ahead of the next important macro event risk on the US economic calendar, the Thursday December CPI release. Interesting session ahead for European equities after yesterday saw major indices in Europe closing at their highest levels since Russia invaded Ukraine.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) S&P 500 futures erased all of their gains in yesterday’s session, declining 1.5% from the intraday highs. The culprit was Fed member Mary Daly’s comments that she expects the policy rate to move to 5% or a bit above. Despite these comments, the US 10-year yield declined downplaying the comments from Daly suggesting the market keeps betting that the Fed will pivot before reaching the 5% level. S&P 500 futures are trading lower again this morning hovering just above the 3,900 level taking the futures back into the upper part of the trading range established since mid-December. The next important event for US equities is the December CPI report on Thursday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HIF3) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hong Kong and Chinese equities retraced after a strong start in the new year. Hang Seng Index edged down 0.3% and CSI300 was nearly flat as of writing. China is exempting value-added tax (VAT) among small businesses till the end of 2023 and is considering a record special debt quota and a wider budget deficit. The news stirred little excitement among investors as expectations for stimulus measures are already high. Chinese leading EV maker, BYD (01211:xhkg) slid 2% following Berkshire Hathaway reduced its stake to 13.97% from 14.06%. FX: Currencies swing with risk sentiment, USDCNH rejects new lows after huge slide The US dollar found support late yesterday after an extension of its recent sell-off on a squeeze higher in equities. EURUSD spilled over to a new high since last June, posting a 1.0761 high water market before easing back as risk sentiment weakened late in the US yesterday, supporting the greenback. A good portion of the EURUSD upside was on a firmer euro, as other USD pairs remain within recent trading ranges, including USDJPY, trading mid-range this morning just below 132.00. Elsewhere, USDCNH extended its remarkable run lower in the Asian session but was quickly gathered up after hitting new lows since last August at 6.76. Several central bankers are out speaking at a conference in Stockholm, Sweden today, while the market awaits the next major US macro event risk, Thursday’s December CPI release. Crude oil (CLG3 & LCOH3) trades steady with Brent hovering around $80 Gains being driven by excitement over a rapid reopening in China with the upcoming Lunar New Year driving a pickup in demand for travel. Near-term weakness in demand will be discussed when the OPEC+ monitoring committee (JMMC) meets on February 1 and despite a drop in Russian exports, due to sanctions, forcing the price of its flagship Urals below $40 per barrel last Friday, the committee could still spring a surprise and recommend another production cut. China meanwhile issued another generous quota for crude imports that will allow 44 non-state-owned refiners to import a total 132 million tons compared with 109 this time last year. Brent trades within a small uptrend with resistance being the 21-day moving average, today at $81.30 and support at $78. Gold (XAUUSD) holds onto its gains Supported by a weaker dollar and softer yields despite comments on Monday from two Fed officials that rates may rise above 5% before pausing and holding for some time. The metal has also been buoyed by the reopening in China with pictures of very crowded gold markets seeing pre-Lunar demand and the PBoC announcing it bought 62 tons of gold during the last two months of the year. However, following two back-to-back weeks of ETF buying, total holdings dropped slightly on Monday as some investors remained cautious. Focus this week on Thursday’s US CPI print with the next major hurdle for gold being $1896, the 61.8% retracement of the 2022 correction, with support now at $1830. HG Copper breaks higher on China demand optimism With the China government considering CNY3.81trn of local government bond issuance in 2023, there is expectations of a further push to infrastructure spending which will continue to bump up industrial metals' prices. Beijing may also bump the budget deficit to 3% of GDP, up from 2.8% last year. Meanwhile, copper inventories for immediate withdrawal from LME warehouses fell 2.8%, the most since 8 December. That leaves stockpiles at just above a 17-year low. HG copper reached $4.05 on Monday with the 50% retracement of the 2022 correction now offering resistance at $4.0850, with support being the 200-day moving average at $3.84. US Treasuries (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) yields ease lower, 10-year close to 3.50% Ahead of three days of treasury auctions starting with today’s auction of 3-year notes, US treasury yields dropped a few basis points all along the curve. The two-year yield is nearing the range low since last September just below 4.15%, while the 10-year benchmark yield has another 10 basis points of range to work with into the cycle low near 3.40%. A 10-year auction is up tomorrow and 30-year T-bond auction on Thursday, with prior auctions for those maturities rather weak. Read next: The Aussie Pair Is Trading Above 0.69$, The Euro Above 1.07, The British Pound Also Benefits From A Weak Dollar| FXMAG.COM What is going on? The labour market remains tight in the Eurozone The Eurostat figures for Eurozone unemployment were out at 6.5 % in November and at 6.0 % for the EU. The figures are stable compared to October. Within the EU, Spain scores the highest official unemployment rate (12.4 %) and Germany and Poland the lowest one (3.0 %). In a working paper published yesterday, ECB economists pointed out the risk of high wage growth in the coming quarters – way above historical patterns.  “This reflects robust labour markets that so far have not been substantially affected by the slowing of the economy, increases in national minimum wages and some catch-up between wages and high rates of inflation”. We tend to disagree with this assessment. Wage growth is of course fuelling inflation in the CEE area. But this is clearly not the case in Western Europe. The likelihood that wages will increase significantly, thus becoming an issue regarding the fight against inflation, is rather low in our view. The United Kingdom is certainly the only European country which may potentially face a wage-price spiral this year.  Commodities supported on optimism over a speedy reopening in China  China will return to “normal” growth soon as Beijing steps up support for households and businesses, according to party secretary of the China’s central bank. That adds to hopes that the government will expand measures to steady the economy and potentially roll out more infrastructure spending that could support industrial metals prices. The HG copper price rose over $4 at on one point, for the first time in six months, with demand likely to rise while inventory stockpiles remain near 17-year lows while the Iron ore (SCOA) price surged 2.4% to a new six month high, $119.80 on expectations for a seasonal post-Lunar new year ramp up in demand.  China reopening, authorities are anxious the nation could run out of power China’s National Development and Reform Commission has issued three notices urging parties to secure and speed up the process of locking in medium and long-term supply deals, to ensure China does not run out of power. China had banned imports of Australian coal for over two years, however, yesterday reports suggested BHP struck a deal and sold two shipments of met coal to China. This highlights that trade relations are improving but also means the price of coal is likely to remain supported as demand is increasing. Japan’s December Tokyo CPI touched the 4% mark Tokyo CPI for December was released this morning, with the headline coming in at 4.0% YoY as expected from a revised 3.7% YoY in November, suggesting price pressures in Japan haven’t started to cool off yet. Tokyo core CPI (ex-food) was higher than expected at 4.0% YoY from 3.6% YoY previously while the core-core measure (ex-food and energy) was also higher at 2.7% YoY from a revised 2.4% YoY in Nov. With Tokyo CPI numbers leading the broader print, there are clear signs that further upside pressures are likely to stay and continue to keep a policy tweak option alive for the BOJ. Russian crude exports coming under pressure Russia’s Urals grade, a far bigger export stream than any other crude that Russia sells, was $37.80 a barrel at the Baltic Sea port of Primorsk on Friday, according to data provided by Argus Media. Global benchmark Brent settled at $78.57 on the same day. Combined flows to China, India and Turkey hit the lowest last week since October, suggesting sanctions and EU embargo may be impacting Russia’s key exports. Microsoft considers $10bn investment into OpenAI The recently published ChatGPT has surprised the world by being quite good at answering all sorts of questions whether they are simple or complex. ChatGPT reached a 1mn users in just one week of beta testing. There have been serious talks about that ChatGPT might be something that could one day upend Google’s classic and very profitable search engine business. This might be the exact opportunity Microsoft is pursuing. What are we watching next? US December CPI up on Thursday The latest CPI data out of the US is the next important test for global markets, which have grown perhaps over-confident that the Fed will not only halt its policy tightening soon after perhaps 50 basis points of further tightening, but will be signalling rate cuts by year-end. The US CPI releases have triggered considerable volatility in recent months, particularly in equity markets on aggressive trading in very short-dated options. The market expects that inflation will actually fall month on month by –0.1% and only rise 6.5% year-on-year versus +7.1% in November. The core, ex Food and Energy number is expected to rise +0.3% MoM and +5.7% YoY vs. +6.0% YoY in November and a peak rate of 6.6% in September. Earnings to watch The Q4 earnings season kicks off this Friday with banking earnings from Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Citigroup with consensus expecting earnings to continue contracting among US banks before coming back to growth this year. The key uncertainty is credit quality in 2023 as it is linked to the degree of a recession or maybe no recession at all in the US economy. With higher interest rates level expectations are that banking revenue will slowly begin to accelerate and if high interest rates persist for an extended period, the longer-term growth for banks could be quite attractive. Overall, the Q4 earnings season is likely going to see an extension of value and tangible companies performing better than intangible-driven companies. Today: Albertsons Thursday: Fast Retailing, Seven & I Friday: DiDi Global, Aeon, Bank of New York Mellon, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, UnitedHealth, BlackRock, Delta Air Lines, First Republic Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 1000 – Sweden Riskbank Governor Thedeen to speak 1010 – Bank of England Governor Bailey, Bank of Canada Governor Macklem, ECB’s Schnabel speak Stockholm 1100 – US Dec. NFIB Small Business Optimism 1400 – US Fed Chair Powell to speak at Riksbank even in Stockholm 1535 – ECB's de Cos, Knot to speak in Stockholm 1700 – EIA's Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO) 1800 – US 3-year Treasury Auction 2130 – API's Weekly US Oil and Fuel Inventory Report 0030 – Australia Nov. Retail Sales 0030 – Australia Nov. CPI Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher   Source: Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – January 10, 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

It's been over a month since we heard about Chat GPT artificial intelligence. Microsoft Corp (Microsoft) would be in talks with OpenAI to invest $10 billion in it, which could allow the San Francisco-based company to be valued at $29 billion. OpenAI owns the Chat GPT language model, and Microsoft plans to use it to enhance its existing applications and services such as the Bing browser, Word, PowerPoint, Outlook and others. The aim is for Chat GPT to automatically generate text in these applications, allowing it to better compete with Google's AI offering. How might this translate into Microsoft stock? Artificial intelligence that everyone has at their fingertips, or what is Chat GPT? When asked what artificial intelligence is, we could receive the following answer: "Chat GPT is a language model developed by OpenAI that is specifically designed to generate text based on user-entered questions and commands. It is an extension of the GPT (Generative Pre-trained Transformer) model, which was originally developed to generate natural-sounding text. The GPT chat is used to generate answers to questions, translate languages, generate questions, among other things. The model uses large text datasets, which allows it to generate natural-sounding text. One of the important features of Chat GPT is its ability to contextualise questions and generate answers that are appropriate to the context. This allows you to interact with the user in a way that is more user-friendly.  It is difficult to assess the possibilities of Chat GPT at the moment. Every now and then, new ideas hit the web about how to use this technology. It is also hard to say whether the creators themselves are aware of all the possible uses of the bot. OpenAI and Microsoft OpenAI and Microsoft announced a strategic partnership back in 2016, with Azure, Microsoft's cloud platform, becoming the preferred tool for services. The integration of OpenAI technology into Microsoft products has also taken place. In 2017. Microsoft made an investment in OpenAI, and in 2018. OpenAI and Microsoft announced a collaboration to bring OpenAI's GPT-2 model to the Azure platform. This partnership also integrates OpenAI technologies into Office and Dynamics 365 services. In 2019, the companies announced the expansion of their partnership with a new initiative called the OpenAI Internet Scale Language Model (ISLM) Program, which aimed to train the largest language model to date using Azure. Under this, Microsoft has invested US$1bn in the company. Microsoft and OpenAI announced the availability of GPT-3 on the Azure platform and integration with various Microsoft products such as Azure Cognitive Services and Power Virtual Agents. The Information has announced that Microsoft Corp is in talks about the possibility of investing $10 billion in OpenAI, valuing the company at $29 billion. The investment is also expected to include other venture firms, but this information has not yet been officially confirmed by the parties involved. The tech giant's shares do not yet appear to have priced in the possible potential of integrating Chat GPT. If Microsoft's search market share were to double, maintaining a similar margin from advertising as Google, revenue could increase by around $35 billion. This would result in a possible revenue increase of more than 17%. If Google's operating margin is maintained at 27%, this could result in an increase in operating profit of around $9.5 billion and a possible increase in profits of almost 4%. Source: Conotoxia MT5, Microsoft, Daily Would Bing displace Google in the most popular browser? Currently, Google's browser from Alphabet (Alphabet) accounts for 84% of this market, according to Statista data. In comparison, the biggest competitor from Microsoft Bing maintains a 9% share. It seems unlikely that Bing would completely replace Google as the dominant search engine, which has remained the leader of its segment for more than a decade. Google has also invested in artificial intelligence and machine learning, which has helped improve the relevance and accuracy of search results. However, Bing remains a major player in the search engine market and has its advantages. It also has partner integrations that allow it to provide additional features such as Bing Images, Videos, Maps and Shopping etc. Bing has been increasing its market share year on year, most recently from 7.2% to 9%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points, by which it has managed to be an alternative to Google, especially when it comes to enterprise search. Many companies use Bing as their default search engine, some use its API for their internal search systems. In summary, although Bing seems unlikely to replace Google as the dominant search engine in the coming years, it could remain an important player in the market, especially in the context of enterprise search. Source: Conotoxia MT5, Alphabet, Daily Grzegorz Dróżdż, Junior Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76,41% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.   

Summary:  Despite Powell’s relative silence on policy outlook, there were other Fed and non-Fed speakers that continued to sound hawkish and raising alarms on inflation. Bonds slumped although equities and USD struggled to find direction in pre-US CPI positioning moves. Some optimism seen on European growth outlook while the World Bank still cautious about a global recession. Australia’s November CPI was hotter-than-expected, aiding further gains for the AUD which is underpinned by China’s reopening and policy stimulus.   What’s happening in markets? Nasdaq 100 (NAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) rise and trade near key technical levels After two Fed speakers reminding markets US rates could rise to over 5%, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon joined the party, saying there’s 50% chance rates could go to 6%, while money managers BlackRock and Fidelity (among others) warned that markets are underestimating the ultimate rate peak. The World Bank slashed growth forecasts in half, saying new adverse shocks could tip the global economy into a recession. It estimates GDP will rise 1.7% this year, (that’s almost half the pace forecast in June). So this sets the stormy tone for the major indices in 2023. That said, JPMorgan's trading desk says there a two-in-three chance Thursday’s inflation data for December (released on US Thursday), could be on the soft side and spark a 1.5-2% S&P500 rally. On Tuesday the major US indices rose in choppy conditions; the Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) rose for the third day, adding 0.9%, edging closer toward its 50 day moving average, the S&P 500 (US500.I) fluctuated around 3,900, which is a possible technical key resistance level. Others signs of caution were see in bonds, as the two-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.25%, the 10-year jumped 9 bps to 3.62%, while gold nudged up, to 8-month highs, $1,881, while the US dollar advanced modestly. Ten of the 11 sectors within the S&P 500 gained on Tuesday, led by communication services, consumer discretionary, and materials. The only sector that declined was consumer staples. US Treasuries (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) sold off on supply Fed Chair Powell’s speech did not have much impact on Treasuries as he did not discuss U.S. monetary policy specifically and only noted generally “restoring price stability when inflation is high can require measures that are not popular in the short term”. Yields on Treasuries rose as European government bonds sold off on supply from Italy and Belgium and ahead of today’s supply from Germany. Yields on 10-year bunds rose 8bps. Traders also sold Treasuries going into the auction of USD40 billion 3-year Treasury notes, bringing yields to the intraday high right before the auction. The 3-year auction went well with strong demand and saw Treasury yields off their intraday highs afterward. Yields on the 2-year finished the session 4bps higher at 4.25% and those on the 10-year were 9bps cheaper at 3.62%. What should you be watching in equities across APAC? As in what's the big picture with China's reopening and what does it mean to investors? The Australian share market (ASXSP200.I) opened 0.7% higher, with other APAC markets expected to also open most higher. Japan’s futures suggest the Nikkei could rise the most across APAC today. But big picture, we think the most important thing for investor right now, is to consider, that… China’s economic recovery could be the dictator for the course of commodity assets, travel, and property. Not just China tech and consumer spending. China’s pivot away from its Covid Zero stance, led by a sooner-than-expected January 8 lifting of quarantines for cross-border travel, is poised to fast track its international air-transport recovery in 2023. But China’s recovery is not just about travel reviving. Chinese developers have also been seen kicking off recoveries in early 2023, having hit a bottom for contracted sales last year. As China’s economic recovery surges, stocks remain supported and are indeed rallying. A similar trend occurred in 2020 when mainland China reopened after a series of lockdowns following a breakout in Wuhan. But, reflecting on global trends, you’d think China has a better chance of putting Covid behind it this time around… which could support commodities and travel in particular. But, let’s see. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HIF3) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) trod water After a strong first week in the new year, Hong Kong and China stocks trod water on Tuesday. Hang Seng Index edged down 0.3% and CSI300 was nearly flat. Bilibili (09626) fell 4.3% after the company issued ADSs at a 7% discount to buy back convertible bonds. Chinese automakers rallied, especially EV names. Li Auto (02015:xhkg), Nio (09866:xhkg), and XPeng (09868:xhkg) surged each surged over 6%. BYD (01211:xhkg) pared all its initial weaknesses following the news that Berkshire Hathaway had reduced its stake to 13.97% from 14.06% and gained 2.9%. According to its CEO, Li Auto’s Model L7 is gaining market shares from Tesla’s Model 3 and Model Y. BYD reportedly will raise the prices of its EVs, as opposed to Tesla’s price cuts in China. Social media stories speculate that some Chinese cities are going to relax passenger car licensing restrictions in order to boost consumption. Shares of Geely (00175:xhkg) were up 6%, GAC (02238:xhkg) +3.1%, and BAIC (01958:xhkg) up 2.2%. Macao casino operators outperformed with Sands (01928:xhkg) rising 4.8%, MGM (02282:xhkg) up 3.6%, and SJM (00880:xhkg) up 3.1%. In A-shares, automakers, retailing, electric equipment, and beauty care names gained while financial, petrochemical, and steeling makers were among the biggest losers. FX: Dollar range-bound as it eyes the US CPI Lack of data and anu relevant commentary from Fed Chair Powell left the USD struggling to find direction in the pre-CPI trade. EURUSD was the outperformer, with better growth outlook underpinning, but it continued to find resistance at 1.0760. USDJPY is back above 132 amid higher yields, while AUDUSD rose back above 0.69 following the higher-than-expected November CPI. USDCNH also still below 6.7900. The Aussie dollar rallies after hotter than expected CPI and retail data The Aussie dollar rose 0.3% to 0.6911 US, with inflation and retail sales coming in hotter than expected, which shows the RBA has room to keep rising rates, and as such this theoretically supports the AUD. Core or trimmed CPI (which the RBA looks at) rose from 5.3% YoY to 5.6% YoY in November - hotter than 5.5% YoY expected. Retail sales rose 1.4% in November, beating the 0.6% expected, while also importantly showing Aussie retail sales strongly recovered from the October drop in sales. Some traders have a view the Aussie dollar will push up over the medium term, in lieu of China’s reopening notion which is likely to add to Australia’s GDP, with hot sauce coming from China buying Australian coal for the first time in two years. Crude oil (CLG3 & LCOH3) choppy amid China optimism and inventory build Crude oil prices wobbled on Tuesday as the market remained buoyed by optimism of China demand recovery. European session was supported by upbeat Eurozone outlook. Meanwhile, EIA raised its forecast for demand growth in 2023 to 1.05mb/d. However, it also expects US output to rise to meet this demand, with US shale oil providing the bulk of the gains. The API report showed a strong inventory build of 14.9mn barrels in crude as against expectations of a 2.2mn draw, and focus now turns to EIA figures today. WTI futures touched $76/barrel before sliding back below $75, while Brent reversed from $81. Copper continues to march higher Copper continues to get support from China’s reopening and policy support to fuel economic recovery. Gains were further boosted by Chair Powell staying away from a pushback on easing financial conditions, and the weaker USD as a result. Having retraced close to 50% of the 2022 sell off, HG copper is now seeing resistance ahead of $4.08 (LME $8900), potentially opening up some scope for a correction to check the strength of support. Focus in that regard being $3.84, the 200 DMA, the break above which started this latest runup.  Read next: The EUR/USD Pair Is Still Above 1.0700$, The USD/JPY Pair Was Little Changed| FXMAG.COM What to consider? Powell stays away from policy guidance With some expectations that Powell would likely pushback on the easing financial conditions, equity markets celebrated the lack of any clear guidance on policy direction. Fed Chair Powell did not comment on the current US economic or monetary policy outlook in his prepared remarks, only stating that restoring price stability when inflation is high can require measures not popular in the short term. The pushback on market’s rate cut expectations from Kashkari (voter) was more direct, saying that "They are going to lose the game of chicken." Bowman, also a voter, was also relatively hawkish with comments hinting at more work to do on inflation. When a sufficiently restrictive rate level is reached, the Fed needs to hold the policy rate there "for some time". The story is shifting on Europe Softer energy prices, the lack of black-out and resilient hard data (notably in Germany) are pushing forecasters to review their 2023 recession calls. Goldman Sachs is the first international bank to drastically revised upward its growth forecasts, from minus 0.1 % in 2023 to 0.6 %. Said differently, the U.S. based bank does not expect a recession in the eurozone this year anymore. Early Q4 indications are out this Friday with the preliminary 2022 FY growth estimate. This should certainly confirm a milder-then-expected economic downturn. A mild recession (meaning drop in GDP of 0.1 or 0.2 %) is still our baseline this year. But we agree that the economy is surprisingly resilient. We also believe there will be no extreme macro and market events in 2023 – which could be positive from a growth perspective. If the economy performs much better, this will however give ECB policymakers more confidence in hiking rates as laid out in December by Christine Lagarde. World Bank warns of a global recession The World Bank cut its global growth forecast to 1.7% this year, down from an estimate of 3.0% in June. This marks the third weakest pace of global growth in nearly 30 years, overshadowed by only the 2009 and 2020 downturns. Growth estimate for 2024 was also slashed, down to 2.7%, as persistent inflation and high interest rates weigh. Meanwhile, the agency urged for global action to mitigate the risks of a global recession and debt distress. Growth of aggregate financing slowed to 9.6% Y/Y in China while loans to corporate picked up In December, the growth of outstanding aggregate financing, the broad measure of credit in China, decelerated to 9.6% Y/Y from 10.0% Y/Y in November. New aggregate financing declined to RMB1,310 billion in December (below consensus RMB1,850 billion) from RMB1,987 billion in November, dragged by a decline in new bond issuance from local governments and a net bond redemption by corporate. New RMB loans rose to RMB1,400 billion (above consensus RMB1,200 billion) from RMB1,214 billion in November and were also above RMB1,130 billion in December 2021. The growth of RMB loans picked up to 11.1% Y/Y in December from 11.0% in November. The better-than-expected growth in RMB loans was driven by new loans to the corporate sector which rose to RMB1,264 billion in December from RMB884 billion in November and above RMB 662 billion a year ago, as the Chinese authorities had asked banks to extend credits to support the housing market and other key industries. New loans to households came in weak, falling to RMB175 billion in December from RMB263 billion in November and RMB372 billion in December a year ago. The daily number of domestic flights in China rose to over 10,000, the first time since August China’s Lunar New Year travel season started last Saturday 7 January with 9,454 flights or a 2.26% growth from the first day of the same travel season last year. The number of daily flights increased to 10,123 on 8 January, an 13.65% increase from the same period last year and above 10,000 for the first time since August 2022. China suspends short-term visas for visitors from Japan and South Korea In retaliation to travel restrictions imposed on visitors from China, China stops issuing short-term visas for visitors from Japan and South Korea. Restrictions from both sides could be a temporary setback to the trend of the reopening of the Chinese economy but it is likely to be resolved in the near term. Microsoft may invest USD10 billion in OpenAI Microsoft is reportedly in discussion to make an investment of USD 10 billion in Open AI, the creator of AI bot ChatGPT. This would be Microsoft’s second investment, after acquiring a USD1 billion stake in 2019. Microsoft is expected to integrate ChatGPT into the software giant’s search engine.   For a look ahead at markets this week – Read/listen to our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.   Source: Market Insights Today: Powell’s silence on policy puts the focus back on US CPI – 11 January 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

US equities first struggled to find direction, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell kept mum on monetary policy in Stockholm yesterday, worried about the World Bank’s morose growth projections, but then turned north on hope that a softer US inflation print tomorrow could boost the Fed doves and enhance appetite in US equities. Gold Gold benefits from softer US yields, and softer dollar on expectation that a softer inflation could soften the Fed’s policy stance. World Bank The World Bank predicts a global growth of about 1.7% this year, about half the pace it predicted last summer. Although the slowing economic growth softens the rate expectations – and boost equities, a weaker global economy should weigh on corporate profits and should not let the rally run too far. Forex In the FX, European Central Bank (ECB) officials stand behind their hawkish view despite the latest softening in inflation. The EURUSD pushes higher as the positive pressure is the fruit of the divergence between softening Fed expectations and hawkish ECB bets. Australia In Australia, inflation advanced more than expected to 7.3% in Q4 fueling the expectation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could opt for another 25bp hike in its February meeting. Energy Finally, in energy, crude oil is dragging its feet below the $75 this morning and will likely remain under pressure as yesterday’s API data showed that the US oil inventories rose by a little less than 15 mio barrels last week as the refining activity returned to normal following weather-related shutdowns. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:23 Stocks rallied on softer US inflation bets 1:58 ‘Be careful what you wish for!’ 3:20 World Bank cuts growth forecasts… 3:53 … but Goldman calls off the Euro recession!? 5:48 Euro, Aussie gain on hawkish central bank expectations 6:55 Crude oil under pressure on 15-mio US stockpile build 7:34 Gold benefits from softer dollar, yields 7:56 Microsoft could be on a good path with ChatGPT! Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Fed #inflation #expectations #USD #EUR #GBP #XAU #earnings #season #Microsoft #ChatGPT #tech #stocks #World #Bank #Goldman #Sachs #growth #forecast #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH        

Activist investor Ryan Cohen Activist investor Ryan Cohen is pushing the Chinese e-commerce giant to accelerate and further strengthen its share buyback program. Microsoft Corp. plans to incorporate AI tools such as ChatGPT into all its products and make them available as platforms for other companies. Alibaba Share buybacks Share buybacks can support equities by reducing the supply of traded shares and increasing earnings per share. Investors often treat them as a bullish signal because they suggest that executives are optimistic about their company's prospects and confident about its financial situation. Cohen, with a net worth of over $2.5 billion and a stock portfolio that includes Apple Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. and Citigroup Inc., first contacted Alibaba's management in August to voice his opinion that the company's stock is deeply undervalued based on his belief that he could achieve double-digit sales and nearly 20% free cash flow growth over the next five years. Cohen also expressed confidence that Apple, in which he owns more than $800 million, could provide a roadmap for Alibaba. The Active Investor also expressed admiration for management's ability to drive earnings growth while accumulating high-quality assets. While the stakes are small compared to Alibaba's market capitalization of nearly $300 billion, Cohen has a large following among individual investors who often follow in his footsteps. Following Cohen's initial announcement, Alibaba announced in November that its board of directors had approved expanding the company's share buyback program by $15 billion to $40 billion. Cohen told Alibaba's board of directors that the share buyback plan could be increased by another $20 billion to about $60 billion. Alibaba shares rose about 67% from a multi-year low in October. At that time, the share price was 63.22. After that, they increased from November, and the new year brought positive signals and the BABA price reached 117.01. OpenAI and Microsoft OpenAI has been at the center of a recent spike in artificial intelligence in the tech industry, and Microsoft is in advanced talks to increase investment in the startup. Speaking on Tuesday at the Wall Street Journal panel at the World Economic Forum's annual event in the Swiss mountains, Nadella said his company will quickly move to commercialize OpenAI tools, the research lab behind the ChatGPT chatbot, as well as the Dall-E 2 image generator. Nadella said in in an interview that the new excitement about tools is due to the rapid growth in their capabilities last year, which he said he expects to continue. Those in office jobs engaged in so-called knowledge-based work should embrace the new tools rather than assume they'll steal their jobs, Nadella said, citing the example of computer software developers now using tools to help them generate some of the code they write. Microsoft's CEO was also optimistic about the wider economic potential of tools like ChatGPT that can quickly generate fluent-sounding text based on short queries or prompts. Microsoft recently said it was giving more customers access to the software behind these tools through its Azure cloud computing platform. After falling to the level of 222.31, Microsoft stock prices are rising and recently reached the level of 239.18. Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com

The war in Ukraine is hindering the operation of many companies in the European region. As a result, Whirlpool decided to transfer a significant part of its operations in the region to a new entity controlled by a Turkish equipment manufacturer. Since the beginning of the new year, many tech companies have narrowed their ranks as the pandemic, which has caused an increase in the number of employees, has died down. Concerns about inflation and a slowdown in the global economy have encouraged leaders in the tech sector to prepare for worse times by reducing costs through layoffs. Whirlpool Whirlpool Corp is transferring a significant portion of its regional operations to a new entity controlled by a Turkish equipment manufacturer. The new company, whose majority shareholder will be the Turkish company Arcelik AS, is expected to have total sales of USD 6.5 billion. Benton Harbor, Michigan, equipment maker will own 25% of the new entity after the transaction closes Whirlpool executives said in April they were beginning a strategic review of the company's operations in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, which accounted for 23% of the company's total revenue in 2021. The Russian invasion of Ukraine hurt demand and drove up costs in the region. Whirlpool, like other manufacturers, struggled more broadly with weakening consumer demand and rising material, energy and other costs. The company cut production by 35% in the third quarter of 2022 to reduce inventory, and said its North American operations faced an unspecified fourth-quarter supply chain disruption that has since been resolved. In an announcement of its 2022 financial results, due to be released on January 30, the company said on Tuesday that it expects full-year net sales to fall by 10% from 2021. The deal left Whirlpool with a loss of $1.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022, including a $1.1 billion write-down for the company's operations in Europe, Middle East and Africa and $400 million for currency adjustments. The company is expected to hurt its full-year earnings per share in 2022 by $26 to $28. WHR shares in the new year soared until they reached 154. For the last few days, Whirlpool Corp shares have been trading above 154, close to 155, and 154.90 to be exact. Microsoft and layoffs Microsoft had more than one round of layoffs last year, but didn't announce how many jobs it cut. The round, which began in July, affected less than 1% of the total workforce of the company of more than 200,000 people. Sky News previously reported plans to announce layoffs this week. Microsoft's expected move comes a week ahead of the scheduled listing of its latest quarterly earnings. The layoffs affected companies across the industry. Amazon.com Inc. announced it was laying off 18,000 people. This month, business software provider Salesforce Inc. announced plans to cut 8,000 employees, or 10% of the global workforce, marking the largest job cut in the company's history. On Tuesday, Unity Software Inc. said it was laying off 284 employees. The provider of video game and other application development tools had previously announced layoffs in June, when it cut around 225 jobs. Microsoft is seeing positive interest this year as it negotiates to increase investment in its vibrant AI startup OpenAI. Microsoft shares continue to climb this year, reaching 240.35. Today, for the first time this year, they fell to 239.85 Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.cm

Summary:  Yesterday saw a sharp reversal in risk sentiment across the board, with US equities in a steep slide and the USD higher, even as treasury yields dipped. The slide in sentiment came after weak US Retail Sales and other data - is bad news finally bad news again? The selling came in at a key technical area after the recent rally, making for a compelling bearish reversal. Elsewhere, the Japanese yen bounced back across the board overnight, just after BoJ-inspired weakness.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) fall over 1% on recession fears U.S. equities opened higher initially as bond yields tumbled on a dovish Bank of Japan and much weaker than expected prints on U.S. retail sales, industrial production, and producer prices. Comments from the Fed’s Bullard in a Wall Street Journal interview about his preference of keeping the pace of rate hike at 50bps at the February FOMC triggered a reversal around mid-day and saw U.S. stocks plunge during the afternoon session. The weak economic data and the risk of the Fed overdoing it on rate hikes troubled equity investors. On the close the Nasdaq 100 was down 1.3% while the S&P 500 slipped 1.6%. All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 declined, with the consumer staples sector falling the most to finish the session 2.7% lower. In the Fed’s Beige Book released on Wednesday, U.S. retailers said they were having difficulties in passing through cost increases to consumers. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HIF3) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Following the decline in U.S. stocks overnight, Hong Kong and mainland Chinese stocks opened lower but managed to pare losses and more. Hang Seng Index and CSI300 edged up modestly in the early afternoon local time. Chinese property developer stocks outperformed while technology names were among the laggards. Hang Seng TECH Index dropped more than 1% on profit taking ahead of the 3-day Lunar New Year holiday next week. Chinese social platform, Kuaishou (01024:xhkg) plunged nearly 6% after a co-founder sold shares. FX: US dollar posts strong rally on weak US data; JPY roars stronger still overnight The weak US data yesterday (more below) took US treasury yields sharply lower all along the curve, but with risk sentiment sliding badly on the news, the USD rallied sharply rather than selling off on the implications for less Fed tightening at coming meetings. This suggests investors may finally be fretting the risk of an incoming recession. The USD strength eased overnight as the Japanese yen, already beginning to reverse to the strong side by late US hours despite the dovish BoJ earlier in the day (the JPY traditionally thrives most on falling global yields and weak sentiment/recession fears) rallied hard, handily outpacing the US dollar and ripping stronger across the board, particularly against the hapless AUD, which was hit by weak December employment data overnight. Crude oil (CLG3 & LCOH3) tumbles badly on sluggish US data Crude oil extended Wednesday’s sharp losses which occurred after poor US economic data triggered fresh growth concerns. The move lower was strengthened by technical and momentum traders getting wrong-footed after having bought an upside break earlier in the day. A reopening of China has been the main supporting focus in recent weeks but with activity there now slowing ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, traders turned their attention elsewhere and did not like what they saw. Also, the API reported another chunky inventory rise of 7.6 million barrels, well above the 2-million-barrel rise expected by the EIA later today. Finally, IEA delivered a bullish outlook for 2023 demand as China recovers and air travel rebounds. Gold ended lower for a third day, but bids keep coming Gold’s newfound strength continues to be tested but so far, the metal has shown resilience and found fresh bids on any pullback. Yesterday it ended lower for a third day, but still above $1900 with traders (many of which are algorithmic, and machine based) taking their directional input from the US bonds market and not least the dollar. Traders have built positions in the belief we will see peak rates soon in the US, a development that triggered very strong rallies on three previous occasions during the past 20 years. However, as long the market trusts the FOMC will deliver lower inflation, major institutional investors are likely side lined, something that shows up in ETF holdings which remain near a two-year low. Support at $1896 followed by $1855, the 21-day moving average. US Treasury yields lower on weak US data, BoJ standing pat (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) Treasuries surged in price and yields collapsed on dovish outcomes from the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting. Treasury yields then took a further dive following the release of larger-than-expected declines in US retail sales and industrial production as well as a bigger-than-expected 0.5% month-on-month fall in the Producer Price Index in December. The hawkish comments from Fed’s Bullard about keeping the February hike at 50bps was ignored by Treasuries despite being picked up by traders as a reason to fade the rally in equities. The result from the USD12 billion 20-year Treasury bond auction was strong. The 2-year trades this morning at 4.04% while the 10-year yield has dropped to a four-month low at 3.32%, with the 2-10 curve still very inverted at -72.5 bps. What is going on? US December Retail Sales and other US data disappoint The December US Retail Sales report for December was the second consecutive monthly report to disappoint expectations, with the headline falling –1.1% MoM vs. -0.9% expected and despite the negative November revision to –1.0% (vs. -0.6% originally). The ex Auto and Gas number was also disappointing at –0.7% vs. 0.0% expected and also with a negative revision for November to –0.5% (from –0.2%). These are particularly negative numbers given still high inflation in the US as they are not inflation-adjusted. Elsewhere, the US PPI data was softer than expected at –0.5% MoM and ex Food and Energy at +0.1%, with the YoY dropping to +6.2%/5.5% vs. 6.8%/5,6% expected. Finally, December US Industrial Production fell 0.7% MoM vs. 0.1% expected, with a negative revision of November data to –0.6% from -0.2%. New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern shocks with resignation announcement Her resignation was announced after five and a half years in power and came in the context of announcing an October 14 election this year. She will step down no later than February 7. Her Labour Party is trailing the opposition National Party slightly in the polls. Ardern said she hadn’t the energy to continue as PM. Microsoft to lay off 10,000 employees ... as a part of it what it considers a set of cost-cutting measures outlined in a securities filing yesterday. CEO Satya Nadella cited a downward shift in demand for digital services and fears of  a recession. “...we saw customers accelerate their digital spend during the pandemic, we’re no seeing them optimize their digital spend to do more with less.” The layoff are just under 5% of the company’s global workforce. Rising volume of trades on Euronext Paris In recent sessions, we have noticed a strong rise in the volume of trades and a sharp increase of volatility for several small and medium companies listed on Euronext Paris. Target Spot (which connect brands to their audience through a premium portfolio of publishers across digital audio) has experienced a huge rebound in recent sessions (+28 % on a weekly basis) driven by an increase in the volume of trades. This company can be considered as a penny stock (the stock was exchanged at 50 cents two weeks ago). There is also a jump in speculation for companies using dilutive financing in the form of OCABSAs ((bonds convertible into shares with share subscription warrants). In October 2022, the French stock market authorities, the AMF warned against the risks associated to this financing, especially for retail investors. There are several listed companies in that case at the Paris stock market, such as Avenir Telecom (manufacture of mobile phones) and Spineway (implants and surgical instruments). Usually, stay away from any kind of ultra-dilutive funding. Fed speakers continue to be mixed, with the non-voters staying hawkish Fed’s Bullard (non-voter) said his dot plot forecast for 2023 is just above the Fed's median of 5.1% at 5.25-5.50% and that Fed policy is not quite in restrictive territory, reiterating it needs to be over 5% at least. Bullard added the Fed should move as rapidly as it can to get over 5% and then react to data, noting his preference is for a 50bps hike at the next meeting (against the consensus 25bps). Loretta Mester (non-voter) said further rate hikes are still needed to decisively crush inflation and we are not at 5% yet, nor above it, which she thinks is going to be needed given her economic projections. She believes the Fed's key rate should rise a "little bit" above the 5.00-5.25% range that the Fed median implies. Harker (voter) said Fed needs to get FFR above 5%, but its good to approach the terminal rate slowly. Dallas President Lorie Logan (voter) spoke later as well, and also hinted at a slower pace of rate hikes. She said she wants a 25bp rate hike, not 50, at the February 1 FOMC meeting. She said if slower rate hike pace eases financial conditions, then the Fed can offset that by gradually raising rates to a higher level than previously expected. What are we watching next? Norway Central Bank the latest to indicate end-of-cycle hike today? The Norwegian central bank was the first G10 central bank to hike rates back in 2021, but maintained a curiously slow pace of hikes relative to other central banks. The market is divided on whether the Norges Bank is set to hike by 25 basis points today, with most believing that even if it doesn’t, the following meeting in late March will see a hike, probably the last of the cycle for now. Earnings to watch The Q4 earnings season continues today with two big earnings reports from two very different companies: the huge US consumer products company Procter and Gamble (Market Cap $350B) and streaming services provider Netflix, which has enjoyed a more than 100% rally off the lows by rejuvenating subscriber growth and rolling out plans to launch advertising on its platform for the first time. Still, that stock is down more than 50% from the bubble peak in 2021. Today: Procter & Gamble, Netflix Friday: Investor, Sandvik, Ericsson, Schlumberger Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0900 – Norway Rate decision 1330 – US Dec Housing Starts and Building Permits 1330 – US Initial Jobless Claims 1330 – Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 1330 – Canada Dec. Terante/National Bank Home Price Index 1530 – EIA Natural Gas Storage Change 1600 – EIA's Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report (delayed) 1815 – US Fed Vice Chair Brainard to speak on economic outlook 2330 – Japan Dec. National CPI 0001 – UK Jan. GfK Consumer Confidence Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – January 19, 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

There was good, and less good news for investors on the wire yesterday.   The latest PPI data showed that the producer price inflation in the US fell way faster than expected. The expectation was a slowdown in factory gate inflation from 7.3% to 6.8%. And the data printed a sexy 6.2% for December – which meant a 0.5% retreat instead of a 0.1% decline. Core PPI also slowed. That's the good news.   The bad news is the US retail sales fell 1.1% in December – marking the biggest monthly drop of last year.   On the jobs front, Microsoft said that it will cut 10'000 jobs while Amazon started cutting jobs in the context of 18'000 job cuts announced a couple of weeks earlier. Exactly what the Fed wants.  The bad news would normally be good news for the stocks, if the Federal Reserve (Fed) members weren't there to spoil the dovish Fed expectations by saying that the US rates should go higher. Loretta Mester said more hikes are needed, and James Bullard reminded that the rates would have to stay 'on the tighter side this year' to help the Fed reach its 2% inflation goal.  S&P500 is an easy short at the current levels  The S&P500 didn't like the mix of slowing economic data, and still a hawkish Fed, and dived more than 1.50% yesterday.   And traders didn't hesitate much sending the index below the 200-DMA, and below the bearish trend building since the start of 2022, given that there is nothing encouraging for stock investors out there, other than the softening Fed expectations – which don't help filling the company's coffers.  Stock/bond divergence is happening!  The dovish expectations are, however, feeding well into the bond markets: the US 2-year yield is diving toward the 4% mark, while the 10-year yield hit 3.30%, the lowest level since September.   This means that the positive divergence in the sovereign space, compared with the stocks, is happening. Investors return to US sovereign bonds on expectation that the Fed would soften its policy due to recession jitters, while stock markets don't benefit from the expectation of softer financial conditions, as slowing economic activity is bad for profits.   And speaking of profits, Procter & Gamble and Netflix are due to release their Q4 earnings today!   Crude oil swings between gains and losses  US crude advanced past the $82 mark on Chinese reopening optimism and IEA predicting that the oil demand will hit a record in 2023, before falling back below the $80 on recession pessimism, and the news that the US crude inventories jumped by 7.6 million barrels last week, while the expectation was a drop in inventories.   The more official EIA data is due today, and the expectation of a 2.1 million barrel fall will likely disappoint the bulls. But I continue believing that the bulls will take the upper hand and carry the rally higher, though on a bumpy road.   Falling stocks + falling yields: a boon for gold diggers  Gold is bid above the $1900 level, and the positive pressure is supported by lower US yields – which decrease the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest-bearing yellow metal, and the softer US dollar.   The overbought conditions hint that we could see a minor downside correction in the short run, but levels between $1855 and 1900 are interesting for amassing gold.   There is potential for a further rise in gold, especially if the stocks fall, while the US yields continue easing. 

The week started slowly in Asia, as many markets were closed due to the Chinese New Year holiday. But those that were open benefited from the positive vibes from the US markets last Friday.  US equities rally, led by tech stocks  The S&P500 rallied 1.89% and flirted with the 200-DMA again, and closed the week a stone's throw from the ceiling of the 2022-to-date bearish trend.   Nasdaq did even better. The index rallied 2.86%, boosted by a well-deserved 8.50% rally from Netflix - which not only announced better-than-expected results in the Q4, but also a mouth-watering beat on the subscription growth end, with 7.7 mio new subscribers – a number that we thought we would hear only during a pandemic!   Google, on the other hand, jumped 5.72%, but for a less glamorous reason. The company said it will fire 6% of its workforce, which is around 12'000 jobs globally. Investors heard 'yes, that will clearly improve the cloud profitability!'   In total, Amazon, Microsoft and Google will be cutting 40'000 jobs.   Fed's quiet period  The quiet period for Federal Reserve (Fed) officials will help us digest what has been said over the past weeks.   In summary, we know that the Fed will further slow the size of its rate hikes in the coming months. $  But the fact that the Fed will raise by only 25bp next meeting doesn't mean that it won't continue hiking the rates. The rates will likely go above 5% in the Q1.  Focus on earnings  Microsoft, Johnson&Johnson, General Electric,Texas Instruments, Intel, Tesla Mastercard, Visa, Chevron and American Express are among companies that will go to the earnings confessional this week.  Big Tech earnings projections are down by about 5% since October.   Yet, expectations went sufficiently low that there is plenty of room for a positive surprise, as has been the case with Netflix.   FX & energy  The dollar kicked off the week under pressure. The EURUSD already hit the 1.09 mark early in the session, for the first time since last April, and is just a couple of pips away from the major 50% retracement on 2021-2022 selloff.   PMI data due tomorrow could confirm that the European economies took a softer hit thanks to mild start to the winter, and cheaper energy prices as a result of it.   And sufficiently strong PMI data, combined to the negative pressure in the US dollar into the Fed meeting, could help the EURUSD take a chance on the 1.10 resistance in the coming sessions.   In energy, crude oil posted its second straight week of gains on Friday, as the Chinese reopening story and prospects of higher global demand, and around 1 mbpd gap between supply and demand outweighed the recession fears.   The latest rebound in European nat gas prices, and the fact that we now have cold and snow in Europe could also tilt the balance further to the upside.   The barrel of American crude spent last week above the 50-DMA, now around $78pb, but couldn't clear the 100-DMA, which stands around $82pb.   The next target for the oil bulls is a move above the $82pb, for a potential extension of gains toward the $87/88 range.  

US stocks, and Bitcoin rallied on Friday, boosted by gains in tech stocks on surprisingly strong Netflix results, Google’s job cut announcement and dovish hints from Federal Reserve (Fed) members. Earnings This week, the quiet period for Federal Reserve (Fed) officials will help us digest what has been said over the past weeks and focus on earnings!Microsoft, Johnson&Johnson, General Electric,Texas Instruments, Intel, Tesla Mastercard, Visa, Chevron and American Express are among companies that will go to the earnings confessional this week. Big Tech earnings projections are down by about 5% since October. Yet, expectations went sufficiently low that there is plenty of room for a positive surprise, as has been the case with Netflix. Forex In the FX, the US dollar kicked off the week under pressure. The EURUSD already hit the 1.09 mark early in the session. Cable advanced to 1.2450. The barrel of American crude posted its second straight week of advance, though the 100-DMA hasn’t been cleared… just yet! Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:45 US stocks reverse losses 2:29 Bitcoin extends rally 3:14 Digesting Fed expectations into the FOMC meeting 4:40 Microsoft & Tesla will report earnings this week 6:07 EURUSD hits 1.09; sterling, Loonie are also better bid against USD 8:13 Crude oil eyes $82pb resistance Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Microsoft #Tesla #earnings #Fed #expectations #USD #EUR #GBP #CAD #crude #oil #Bitcoin #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Eurozone inflation slowed down and we're looking forward to the next ECB meeting, which may provide the markets with a 50bp rate hike. Bitcoin has been trading higher recently, while this week the hot topics this week are Tesla and Microsoft earnings. We asked Michalis Efthymiou, Market Analyst at NAGA, about his view on ECB, the leading crypto and tech companies. Let's find out what Michalis told FXMAG.COM Most economists continue to advise a 50 basis point hike,  as the ECB lags behind their competitors in terms of their Main Refinancing Rate and Inflation goals The EU inflation rate has indeed significantly declined from 10.6% to 9.2% over the space of 2-months. However, it is important not to compare the monetary policy of the UK and the US with the European Central Bank. The US is now predicted to lower the size and pace of their rate hikes for the reason that inflation has declined to 6.5% and the Federal Fund Rate is already at 4.5%. This is 2% higher than the ECB, which is currently lagging behind both the Fed and the Bank of England.Therefore most economists continue to advise a 50 basis point hike,  as the ECB lags behind their competitors in terms of their Main Refinancing Rate and Inflation goals. Currently, EU officials are keeping to their 50 basis point stance, and this has clearly priced into the Euro. Read next: For The First Time Since Last April The EUR/USD Pair Is Above 1.09| FXMAG.COMOn a last note, it is also important not to disregard the fact that over a third of the Monetary Policy Board during December’s meeting voted for a 75 basis point hike. In addition, the risks of a recession in the EU have also significantly declined over the past month. Bitcoin has given back some of its spectacular gains, but its price is still elevated. What do you expect from the leading crypto in the near future? Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, in general, are volatile, so a strong retracement is not rare and should not be viewed as harsh as other instruments. The demand for the cryptocurrency market is growing, and this can be seen in the overall market capitalization. The market cap has increased to over $1.05 Trillion, which is the highest this year. Bitcoin’s demand had also increased compared to other competitors increasing to 41.4% share.The price of Bitcoin has been influenced by two main factors. The weakening monetary policy and the lower risk of recession. Overall this can trigger a higher risk appetite and investor confidence. However, traders should be cautious that the FTX bankruptcy has left the sector on shaky grounds. Genesis Global Capital is also currently preparing for bankruptcy which again does not support the industry’s confidence levels.Lastly, over the past 24 hours, the crypto market value measured only $52 billion, which is 13% lower and triggered a slight decline yesterday. This may be related to the lack of volume on a Sunday, but traders should monitor and ensure this does not develop into a trend. Some big names will report earnings soon. What do you expect from Microsoft and Tesla? The price of Tesla has gained over the past week as we approach its earnings release. The price of the stock climbed 12.50% over a 5-day period. For the fourth quarter of 2022, the company’s Earning Per Share is expected to increase slightly compared to the 3rd quarter. The figure is expected to read $1.13 while the revenue is expected to increase from $21.88 billion to $24.42B. So we can see from the figures that the report is expected to show a better quarter compared to October.However, investors should also be cautious about the latest company sales figures, which show 55,796 cars were sold in December. The figure is the lowest in 5 months and could concern some investors. Microsoft, on the other hand, is generally performing better than Tesla, with higher Earnings Per Share. It should also be noted that Microsoft has only declined by 21% in the past 12 months compared to Tesla’s 60% decline. However, the volatility and price condition over the next three months will largely depend on the next earnings report and the general stock market condition.

It's definitely an action-packed week. Major US tech stocks publish they earnings reports. Peter Garnry, Head of Equity Strategy, talks Microsoft report. Microsoft's share price is down 29% from its peak and the equity valuation has fallen to a 3.6% free cash flow yield which is slightly above the US 10-year yield Microsoft sees margin pressure: The world's largest software maker reports FY23 Q2 earnings (ending 31 December) tomorrow after the market close with analysts expecting revenue growth slowing to 2.3% y/y down from 20.1% y/y one year ago and down from 10.6% y/y revenue growth in the previous quarter. While the strong USD is obviously impacting foreign income the macroeconomic headwinds are also impacting customer activity. We expect the macro headwinds to impact the Windows and cloud businesses driven by lower PC sales and a slowdown in enterprise software spending. In addition to slowing revenue growth increased energy costs to its data centers and wage pressures will continue to put Microsoft's operating margin under pressure. EBITDA margin is expected to decline to 45.6% in FY23 Q2 down from 49.8% in the previous quarter and 50.7% a year ago. Analysts expect EPS of $2.30 down 6% y/y. Microsoft's share price is down 29% from its peak and the equity valuation has fallen to a 3.6% free cash flow yield which is slightly above the US 10-year yield with the difference being that these free cash flows are not fixed unlike those coupons on government bonds. Read next: Saxo's Market Strategist: Australia's ASX200 could likely to take out a new all-time high. However CPI is a focus this week| FXMAG.COM

The week started with more news of layoffs, and further gains in the S&P500. S&P500 The S&P500 traded above the 200-DMA, yet again. Earnings will decide whether the latest gains will be sustainable. Microsoft All eyes are on Microsoft – not only because it will release Q4 earnings after the bell, but also because it’s been making a great buzz since the start of the year thanks to its bet on ChatGPT. The company confirmed yesterday that is putting $10 billion into the now-very-famous ChatGPT. PMI On the macro front, PMI data released this morning showed that the manufacturing activity in Japan didn’t improve in January, while Australia’s manufacturing PMI slipped below 50, into the contraction zone for the first time in 32 months, but business confidence improved to a three-month high, on China’s reopening. EUR/USD Elsewhere, the EURUSD couldn’t consolidate gains above the 1.09 mark yesterday. But today’s PMI data could help give another boost to the single currency. And, if not, the message from the European Central Bank (ECB) is crystal clear: the rate hikes will continue and that’s positive for the euro. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:31 More job cuts, more S&P500 gains? 2:44 Has Microsoft hit the jackpot with ChatGPT? 5:07 FX roundup: commo-currencies, euro and yen 8:15 Gold’s next bullish target at $1980 per ounce Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #ChatGPT #Microsoft #earnings #PMI #data #USD #EUR #JPY #CAD #AUD #crude #oil #XAU #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

The week started with more news of layoffs, and further gains in the S&P500.   Spotify was the latest tech company to announce it will let go of 6% of its workforce – around 600 jobs. Shares gained 2%  Ford announced it will cut 3200 jobs, mostly in Germany. Shares jumped more than 3%.  Easy. Companies slash jobs, investors buy shares.   But job cuts and cost-saving measures may not be all positive; they could also be a sign of a slowing demand. Just saying.  Anyway, the persistent optimism from investors, and the urge to call the end of the bear market pushed the S&P500 above the 200-DMA, yet again. Earnings will decide whether the latest gains will be sustainable.  All eyes are on Microsoft  All eyes are on Microsoft – not only because it will release Q4 earnings after the bell, but also because it's been making a great buzz since the start of the year thanks to its bet on ChatGPT.  The company confirmed yesterday that is putting $10 billion into the now-very-famous ChatGPT.   And given the traction that ChatGPT has gained since the start of the year, Microsoft could be on a winning path with its AI-bet.   The company's CEO said last week in Davos that every Microsoft product will have a certain AI-capability. The bots will be able to analyze Excel spreadsheets, to create AI art to illustrate a PowerPoint presentation, or even draft a whole email in Outlook. This is good news for everyone.  As such, it could well secure Microsoft's position as exclusive cloud computing provider to one of the world's leading – or at least the most famous to date - AI start-ups; it is a boost to its Azure cloud business, and perhaps to its search engine Bing, as well, which has remained well under the shadow of Google since ever.   Let's see if Microsoft will be the one to push the S&P500 above the year-long down trending channel top – despite the looming recession chatter.   PMI  PMI data released this morning showed that the manufacturing activity in Japan didn't improve in January, and remained in the contraction zone, although the services PMI printed a better-than-expected expansion. The dollar-yen advanced past the 130 level on Monday, but finds sellers above that level, as traders continue betting against the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) dovish policy, which makes little sense in the actual market environment. Buying the yen against US dollar remains a popular trade.  In Australia, the manufacturing PMI slipped below 50, into the contraction zone for the first time in 32 months, but business confidence improved to a three-month high, on hopes that China's reopening will make sure that activity doesn't stay depressed for long. The Aussie-dollar broke above the 70 cents level, as predicted, and consolidated above that level despite the weak PMI read this morning. The pair should continue its journey north on the back of a globally softer US dollar, and prospects of a better Chinese demand that boost commodity prices, including iron ore – which matters for the Aussie.  In other currencies, the EURUSD couldn't consolidate gains above the 1.09 mark yesterday. But today's PMI data could help give another boost to the single currency.   And, if not, the message from the European Central Bank (ECB) is crystal clear: the rate hikes will continue and that's positive for the euro.  Fun fact: The ECB went from one of the most dovish central banks last year – except the Bank of Japan and the Turkish central bank – to one of the most hawkish central banks in just a year.   If the euro weakened to below parity last year because of the dovish ECB divergence, the hawkish rectification in the ECB's policy stance should help it to recover further. 

Summary:  Today we discuss the US equity market melting up technically at an awkward moment, as leading indicators suggest we are barreling into a recession. In any case, a big test ahead as earnings season kicks off in earnest with today's batch of companies reporting, including beaten down mega-cap Microsoft after hours. In commodities, a check-in with crude oil, silver's ugly dip relative to still-strong gold, and one of the most shorted commodities, coffee. Stocks to watch today, the macro calendar picking up and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are available via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it. Read next: South African Petrochemical Company Sasol Is Moving Away From Fossil Fuels, Germany Again Refused To Send Tanks To Ukraine| FXMAG.COM   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: Podcast: Uncomfortable squeeze as earnings season rush kicks off | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

Yesterday (23.01), OpenAI - the technology company that is the creator of the ChatGPT language model - reported in an announcement the entry into the next phase of its expanded partnership with Microsoft. We will learn the latter's quarterly report today after the close of trading. What could we learn from the announcement and what can we expect from the company's financial results? The history of these two companies The non-commercial organisation OpenAI was founded in 2015. Elon Musk, Ilya Sutskever, Greg Brockman and Wojciech Zaremba. The company's goal is to promote and develop artificial intelligence in a responsible and safe way for humans. Microsoft has been working with OpenAI since 2019. As part of this collaboration, Microsoft is providing the Azure cloud as a platform to run OpenAI models, as well as supporting the development and exploration of new artificial intelligence technologies. In 2020. Microsoft and OpenAI announced a collaboration to develop GPT-3, one of the largest language models in the world. In 2021. Microsoft invested $1 billion in OpenAI. We have now heard of a further investment of $10bn. As the company states in the announcement: “We’ve worked together to build multiple supercomputing systems powered by Azure, which we use to train all of our models. Azure’s unique architecture design has been crucial in delivering best-in-class performance and scale for our AI training and inference workloads. Microsoft will increase their investment in these systems to accelerate our independent research and Azure will remain the exclusive cloud provider for all OpenAI workloads across our research, API and products" Supporting programmers and graphic designers is the next step "We’ve partnered with Microsoft to deploy our technology through our API and the Azure OpenAI Service—enabling enterprise and developers to build on top of GPT, DALL·E, and Codex. We’ve also worked together to build OpenAI’s technology into apps like GitHub Copilot and Microsoft Designer." - the OpenAI announcement continued. It follows that we will see the use of artificial intelligence in tools such as GitHub, an app to support developers' work, and Microsoft's new Designer service for graphic design. It is intended to compete with Canva, which currently has around 100 million active users. Can we expect a surprise from Microsoft's report? The tech giant's business falls into three main categories: Productivity and Business Processes (productivity and business process support tools), Intelligent Cloud (all cloud computing services) and More Personal Computing (mainly Windows or gaming). Historically, these segments have accounted for a similar share of the company's revenue, but especially in recent years, cloud services are starting to play a key role, increasing their share to 40 per cent. According to Zacks, a portal that analyses financial data and predicts possible surprises in financial results, the Zacks Earnings ESP (expected prediction surprise) ratio is currently at 0.34 per cent, which means that  it might be less possible to be a significant surprise relative to expected earnings per share in Q4 2022. This currently stands at USD 2.3 (previously USD 2.29). What does Wall Street think of Microsoft's share price? According to the Market Screener portal, the company has 51 recommendations, and among them, the predominant one reads: "Buy". The average target price is set at USD 291.72, 20 per cent above the last closing price. The highest target price is at USD 411 and the lowest is USD 212, which is below the last closing price. Source: Conotoxia MT5, Microsoft, Daily Grzegorz Dróżdż, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service)  

After the rapid rally that occurred between January 18 and January 20, bitcoin and ether are still in the same position. Only this will enable bitcoin to keep expanding while investors and traders wait to see what direction the Federal Reserve System will take the following week. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella gave his thoughts on the metaverse and how this technology would affect the future. According to Nadella, the sense of presence gained through interactions with metaverse technology is "forever changing the rules of the game" in business. In addition, he expressed his support for the metaverse, pointing out how much more socially interactive it is than previous technologies. According to Nadella, the most significant aspect of this technology is the sensation of presence that develops even when you interact electronically. In Nadella's opinion, COVID-19 altered the environment for meetings, compelling more individuals to use video conferences. So it makes perfect sense that newer technologies will be used. The metaverse and other emerging technologies have the potential to significantly alter contemporary civilization. Microsoft was recently identified as one of WEF's collaborators in the creation of the Global Collaboration Village, an online version of Davos. This digital environment serves the organization's goal of enabling the participation of world leaders in ongoing discussions of politics and global issues. Microsoft is also making active investments in metaverse-related firms to collaborate with them on some of its technological solutions for enhancing virtual worlds. The business disclosed in October that it was modifying its cloud infrastructure for use in applications for the metaverse. As we can see, investing in the metaverse's future and the businesses working to achieve it is a very interesting idea. Investors pay particular attention to the support and development of these initiatives because of the involvement of numerous companies in the cryptosphere. The tokens and altcoins of these companies will undoubtedly immediately skyrocket in price and gain weight once the crypto-winter is over. Regarding the technical picture of bitcoin today, the level of $23,180 is already the closest goal for the bulls. If you fixate on it, you'll create a new bullish trend with the potential to update $23,680. The $24,420 region will be the farthest objective, where significant profit-taking and a rollback of bitcoin may take place. In the case of renewed pressure on the trading instrument, protecting the $22,520 level will be of utmost importance because a breach by sellers would be detrimental to the asset. This will put pressure on bitcoin and create a direct path to $21,840. The world's first cryptocurrency will "drop" in the neighborhood of $21,320 if this level is broken. The breakdown of the nearest resistance at $1,693 is what ether buyers are concentrating on. This is going to be sufficient to establish a foothold at the current highs and keep the bullish trend going. The market will undergo considerable adjustments as a result of this. The balance will be returned to the ether upon consolidation above $1,693, with the possibility of increasing up to a maximum of $1,758. A second target will be in the $1,819 range. The $1,504 level, which was just formed, will come into play when the pressure on the trading instrument resumes and the $1,600 support collapses. If it succeeds, the trading instrument will rise to a minimum of $1,410. It will be difficult for bitcoin owners to trade below $1,320 (just $1,320).     Relevance up to 13:00 2023-01-25 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/333125

Summary:  Equity markets lose steam and trade cautiously ahead of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. The S&P500 closes above it 200-day average for the second day - a sign there are more bulls in the market than bears, but Tesla's results could rock the boat. Australian and NZ CPI blow hotter than expected. Gold is on the cusp of a bull market. Oil slides, investors buy the dip ahead of the EU ban on Russian oil. Oil prices make their biggest drop in 3 weeks; some investors see this as opportunity Equity markets lose steam and trade cautiously ahead of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge   US equity markets were a bit dull on Tuesday with investors weighing up mostly stronger than expected Microsoft earnings results, vs a weaker than expected earnings from chipmaker giant, Texas Instruments. The S&P500(US500.I) fell 0.1% but closed above it 200-day average for the second day (a sign there are more bulls in the market than bears), while the Nasdaq 100 (NAS100.I) lost 0.2%. Still markets are waiting for the next major catalysts; Tesla’s results on Wednesday, then later in the week the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for December to gauge if the Nasdaq’s rally of 11% from its low can be sustained, especially as the PE for the Nasdaq is about 54.6 times earnings; meaning tech stocks are still quite expensive compared to their averages. The risk is if Core PCE doesn’t fall as expected from 4.7% QoQ to 3.9%, then we could see a selloff in equity markets, while the US dollar would be bought as hotter inflation supports the Fed keeping rates higher for longer. However, the S&P500 is seemingly bullish for now, until the next tests (some of which we mentioned), click for an in depth Technical Analysis on what the next levels could be for the S&P500. Mixed Microsoft (MSFT) result has shareholders relived as cloud sales rise more than forecast; a sign the business could stand tall amid the murky year ahead After hours Microsoft (MSFT) shares gained 4.3% with investors relieved its revenue in constant currency rose 7% in the quarter, versus the 6.59% estimate. Microsoft’s closely watched Azure cloud-computing business, sales gained 38%, compared with predictions for a 37% increase, excluding the impact of currency fluctuations. This underscores Azure’s ability to help drive the company forth, even as sales of Windows software to PC makers plummeted amid a slumping market. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.32, slightly better than the $2.30 estimate, thanks to the cost cutting. Capital expenditure was $6.27 billion, less than Bloomberg estimated ($6.63 billion), while revenue slightly missed expectations hitting $52.75 billion vs the $52.93 billion estimate. Commodities see red on profit taking, while gold nudges up on the cusp of a bull market   Oil dropped, with WTI falling $1.8% below $81 after as OPEC+ are expected to keeping oil production unchanged when they meet next week as they await clarity on Chinese demand and the impact of EU’s ban on Russian supply (from Feb 5). Copper declined 0.2% with investors booking profits after the copper prices gained 32% from their low. Traders bought into Wheat, lifting the Wheat price up 2% as its trades at year lows. While Gold nudged up 0.4%, taking its total rally off its low to 19.5%, meaning gold is on the cusp of a bull market. Be mindful that we also think gold could also face profit taking, or a consolidation. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy discusses that here.  Australia CPI came out hotter than expected. Focus is on oil’s biggest drop in 3 weeks with some investors buying the dip  After Australia’s ASX200(ASXSP200.I) rallied for five straight days, the market fell like a knife on Wednesday after CPI came out hotter than expected supporting the notion that the RBA can keep rates higher for longer, despite the services sector remaining in contractionary phase. You have to remember Australian CPI has now on numerous occasions been hotter than expected. So given the market is up 16% from its low, we are seeing traders and investors book in profits ahead of the public holiday tomorrow and ahead of next week's RBA decision. Oil stocks such as Santos, Woodside, WorleyParsons, Ampol trade lower but some longer term investors would be seeing this pull back as an opportunity to buy the dip. Why? Oil prices remain supported ahead of EU’s ban on Russian oil coming up (Feb 5), which will restrict oil supply, plus we’re seeing APAC air travel rev up and this is expected to continue over the medium term; which is also driving demand for diesel and underpinning oil demand. In FX the Aussie dollar is on the cusp of a key event   The Aussie dollar vs the US (AUDUSD) trades at its highest levels since August, 70.64 US, after AU CPI came out showing prices are up 7.8% YoY, vs 7.6% expected. Core mean CPI rose 6.9% YoY, also hotter than the 6.5% expected. This means the RBA has more fire power to keep rising rates, despite the services sector remaining in a contraction (with a reading of under 50). If the AUDUSD's 50 day simple moving average crosses above the 200 day, marking a ‘golden cross’, we could see a quick run up to 0.7137, the August peak. It’s also worth watching the AUDEUR as bullish momentum could see the pair on the weekly chart cross over its 100-day moving average. - Stay tuned to Saxo's inspiration page for trading and investing ideas, as news breaks.  For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast. Source: Video: Oil prices drop, some investors buy the oil dip. AU & NZ CPI hotter than expected | Saxo Group (home.saxo)  

Summary:  US equities posted an uninspiring session yesterday and the mood soured slightly after the close on Microsoft reporting earnings and issuing weak guidance for its cloud business. Today, the hotly anticipated Tesla earnings report is up after hours. Elsewhere, US Treasury yields dipped and the Australian dollar jumped to new cycle highs in many AUD pairs, including versus the US dollar, on hotter than expected Australian Q4 CPI data.   What is our trading focus? Equities: Momentum faded in US equities mixed earnings The Q4 earnings releases yesterday weighed on sentiment yesterday with the biggest negative surprise coming from 3M expecting -3% to 0% organic revenue growth in 2023 which indicates a sharp decline in volume which 3M confirmed is taking place in consumer electronics and retail related businesses. After the cash close Microsoft reported a worse than expected outlook sending S&P 500 futures lower trading around the 4,020 level early European trading hours. We expect sentiment to remain in a negative mood as the market awaits Tesla’s Q4 result after the market close. FX: USD generally weaker together with sterling, AUD surges The USD was sold again yesterday after a minor rebound, with EURUSD trading back above 1.0900 by this morning and near the cycle highs, while the weaker USD signal was not particularly pure or broad. USDJPY remains above 130.00 as the price action there has lost energy, for example. Some of the euro strength may be on EURJPY flows as the ECB jawboning remains on the hawkish side of late, and on EURGBP flows as sterling stumbled badly yesterday on a very weak preliminary January UK Services PMI yesterday, with EURGBP well back up into the range above 0.8800. The recent cycle top there was just south of 0.8900. Overnight, AUD jumped broadly to the strong side overnight on hot CPI data (more below). Crude oil (CLH3 & LCOH3) sits between two chairs Following Tuesday’s sharp fall, as investors turned more risk adverse following disappointing earnings, crude oil prices are slightly higher into today’s session with recession fears continuing to be offset by an expected increase in Chinese demand and supply concerns related to next month's EU embargo on Russian seaborne sales of fuel products. In Brent the approach to $90 and the December high at $89.40 is likely to prove a tough nut to crack until more supporting news reaches the market. API data showed another build in US crude stocks, but at 3.4mn barrels if was less than the huge builds seen recently. The EIA data is out later today. Gold at new cycle high Gold reached a new cycle high on Tuesday of $1942.5 before profit taking emerged following the better-than-expected PMIs before bouncing back after the weak Richmond Fed index. Bullion trades up close to 6% this month and more than 300 dollars above the early November low on growing recession fears and expected slowing of Fed tightening. The remainder of the week is littered with US economic data, including US Q4 GDP and PCE, the Fed’s favoured inflation metric. Gold remains in a steep uptrend with support at $1900 followed by $1880 where the 21-day moving average and trendline from the November low meet. Silver has stabilised following Monday’s short-lived sell off below $23.15 but a couple of closes above the 21-day moving average, last at $23.76 will be needed to turn the sentiment more supportive. Chicago wheat futures advance Chicago wheat, one of the three most shorted commodities by the hedge fund industry trades near a one-week high after crop conditions worsened in Texas, the second biggest US producing state of winter wheat, a reminder that dry soil conditions remain following last year's massive drought. In the week to January 17, data from the CFTC showed hedge funds held the biggest short position in Chicago wheat since May 2019. Together with Arabica coffee, another heavily shorted contract, these contracts remain exposed to short covering should the technical and/or fundamental outlook turn more favourably. US Treasuries (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) yields fall. Very strong 2-year Treasury auction US treasuries found support and rallied yesterday, taking the 10-year treasury yield benchmark back below 3.50% and the 2-year was back below 4.20% this morning, in part after a very strong 2-year auction that saw the strongest bidding metrics since the early 2020 pandemic outbreak timeframe. The US treasury will auction 5-year T-notes today. Grumbles around a protracted US debt ceiling showdown in Congress and the risk of default by the US government not wearing on trust in US sovereign paper yet, with “crunch time” for the issue seen as early as early summer if the situation not resolved before then. What is going on? Microsoft’s outlook sent shares lower The world’s largest software company missed revenue estimates in Q2 (ending 31 December) by a small margin but hit the EPS consensus estimate with EPS at $2.32 for the quarter. The initial reaction was positive in the extended trading session but as the outlook became clearer to investors shares sold off. Microsoft forecasts a continuous slowdown in the commercial business in the next two quarters leaving room for a growth acceleration later in 2023. ASML confirms strong demand for chips Europe’s largest technology company reports Q4 sales of €6.4bn in line with estimates and a gross margin of 51.5% vs est. 49.3%. Investors will be pleased to see the confidence in the outlook with Q1 sales guidance at €6.1-6.5bn vs est. €6.1bn and FY23 revenue growth of 25% compared to consensus at 20% y/y. The company also sees a slight improvement in the gross margin. The Aussie dollar rallied up to 0.8% to 0.7100+, a new 5-month high on hot Q4 CPI print The Australian dollar popped to 0.7108 US, its highest level since early August after another Australian inflation print came out hotter than expected after electricity prices surged, rents also remained stubbornly high, along with furnishings, and household equipment price. Core Trimmed Mean CPI rose 6.9% YoY, above the 6.5% consensus expected. Headline inflation came in at 7.8%, slightly below consensus expectations. Recall the RBA expects inflation to remain high in early in 2023, particularly amid higher energy costs. This is also in line with several other government bodies’ thinking. The stronger inflation data saw odds of an RBA hiking pause for February falling, with a majority now looking for a hike at the Feb. 8 RBA meeting, with about 65 basis points of total additional tightening priced for the RBA, with a peak policy rate priced near 3.75%. Eurozone Flash Jan. Composite PMI edges into expansion Eurozone PMI rose to 50.2 in January from 49.3 in December and 49.8 expected, suggesting that the region may be able to skirt a recession due to a less harsh winter this season which has given room to the ECB to continue to focus on fighting underlying inflationary pressures. Manufacturing PMI was just below the key 50-mark at 48.8 but better than last month’s 47.8, while the rise of services PMI to 50.7 drove most of the gains. UK services PMI, on the other hand, fell to 48 from 49.9 in December, while manufacturing gained slightly to 46.7 in January from 45.3 previously but still remained in contraction. This suggests further signs of UK being in a recession in early 2023 and possibly a sooner pause for the BOE than the ECB. US Flash Jan. PMIs hold up better than expected US flash PMIs for January surpassed expectations, as services rose to 46.6, above the expected 45.0 and the prior 44.7, while manufacturing lifted to 46.8 from 46.2 (exp. 46.0), which comes ahead of ISM on February 1st. The composite rose to 46.6 from 45.0, and this will probably further boost the calls in favour of a soft landing rather than a deep recession as has been the case since the start of the year due to faster-than-expected China reopening and stronger Eurozone outlook. Still, activity is in contraction and job growth is cooling, but the January print also pointed to a re-acceleration in the input cost inflation. US and Germany to send tanks to Ukraine The Biden administration is reportedly expected to announce the intent to send 30 M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, with Germany’s Chancellor Scholz also reportedly deciding to send at least 14 of its Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine after a long hesitation. Reports suggest Germany would only agree to send its best tanks if the US did likewise. It is unknown how rapidly the tanks could be deployed at the front. The US Justice Department and eight US states sue Alphabet Inc.’s Google (GOOGL:xnas) ... charging the company with a monopoly in its digital advertising market place and calling for a break-up of the company’s business in this area. Google retorted that the case “largely duplicates an unfounded lawsuit by the Texas Attorney General, much of which was recently dismissed by a federal court. DoJ is doubling down on a flawed argument....” Alphabet, Inc.’s share price fell 2% yesterday. Codelco produced 10% less copper than planned last year Production at Codelco, the Chilean state-owned miner said on Tuesday it produced 10% less copper than planned last year. Driven by mishaps at existing operations, such as rockfall, equipment malfunctions and dam freeze. In addition, some projects were delayed as the industry is seeing cost blowouts. Chile, the world's biggest supplier has increasingly been challenged by steadily falling ore quality, water shortages and projects becoming pricier. Developments that together with social unrest in Peru and the expected pickup in demand from China and the green transformation point to underlying support for copper. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) report production and earnings later today and it may overtake Codelco as the world’s top producer. What are we watching next?  Bank of Canada meets today – most see a 25-basis point hike tomorrow followed by a pause Most observers are looking for the Bank of Canada to hike one last time for this cycle today to take the policy rate to 4.50% and to indicate a pause to assess inflation- and labour market conditions before deciding on next steps. The Bank of Canada hiked rapidly in 2022 in an attempt to catch up with galloping inflation but has contrasted with the Fed in signalling a pause in the hike cycle well before the Fed, which has been slower to signal that peak rates may be nearing. USDCAD trades near the lows since last November at 1.3350 this morning (2023 low is 1.3322), with the 200-day moving average creeping higher and near 1.3200. Tesla earnings on watch for margin pressure from price cuts Analysts expect revenue growth of 36% y/y and EPS of $1.12 up 64% y/y. Analysts are still very bullish on revenue growth for 2023 with expectations at 30% growth despite the recent slip in deliveries and three quarters of growing difference between production and deliveries. This is also reflected in the consensus price target at $190 vs the current price of $144. Traders and investors are also expressing a bullish take on Tesla with the put-call ratio on volume being 0.79 and the put-call open interest ratio at 0.65. The key thing to watch will be the comments on recent price cuts for several models, and how that impacts the bottom line, and whether the demand response is big enough to offset the price reduction to see the bottom line grow this year. Earnings to watch Today’s key earnings focus is ASML and Tesla as both earnings will set the direction for sentiment in the market. Read our earnings preview from yesterday here.  Today: ASML, Lonza Group, Tesla, Abbott Laboratories, NextEra Energy, IBM, Boeing, ServiceNow, CSX, Freeport-McMoRan, Lam Research, Norfolk Southern  Thursday: Tryg, Novozymes, Kone, Nokia, LVMH, Christian Dior, STMicroelectronics, SAP, Diageo, Atlas Copco, Volvo, SEB, Visa, Mastercard, Comcast, Intel, Blackstone, Valero Energy, Archer-Daniels-Midland, Dow, Nucor, L3Harris Technologies, Southwest Airlines, American Airlines  Friday: Fanuc, Chevron, American Express, Colgate-Palmolive  Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0900 – Germany Jan. IFO Business Climate survey  1500 – Canada Bank of Canada Rate Decision  1530 – US Weekly DoE Oil and Product Inventories  1600 – Canada Bank of Canada Statement and Press Conference  1800 – US 5-year Treasury Auction  Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher   Source: Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – January 25, 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

Trading in the US was eventless, except for the wild moves that marked the opening bell at the NYSE. S&P500 The S&P500 swung around the 4000, without any major moves up or down, as investors remained undecided faced with mixed company earnings, and mixed economic data. Microsoft  Microsoft announced better-than-expected results yesterday, but the 5% rally in the afterhours trading rapidly faded. Tesla is due to announce its earnings today. Forex In the FX, the US dollar remains under the pressure of soft data, and worryingly softening Fed expectations. The EURUSD is testing the 1.09 resistance on encouraging PMI data, while sterling is softer on growing slowdown worries. Bank of Canada In Canada, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is preparing to announce its final 25bp hike. The dollar-CAD puts increasing weight into clearing the 1.3350 support, but crude oil is not helping, as the price of a barrel of American crude continues bumping its head against the solid $82pb wall, the 100-DMA, without being able to break it to the upside. Read next: The Department Of Justice's Lawsuit Against Google | FXMAG.COM Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:38 S&P500 flat around 4000 1:55 Fed expectations become alarmingly soft 2:55 Microsoft earnings may not boost sentiment in S&P500 4:43 Tesla earnings due after the bell 6:26 US softer, euro stronger 7:29 Deteriorating UK outlook is not a concern for FTSE 100 8:48 BoC to announce a final 25bp hike 9:00 Crude oil: $82pb resistance too strong to clear… Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Tesla #Microsoft #earnings #ChatGPT #Nvidia #PMI #data #Fed #ECB #expectations #USD #EUR #GBP #BoC #rate #decision #CAD #crude #oil #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

After Elon Musk acquired Twitter, many investors are wondering what's next for Tesla. Recently, after publishing the results, Elon Musk shared plans for Tesla. In this article: Cuts Apple has maintained its position as the largest smartphone manufacturer Asia will be the leader in the future The future of Big Tech in 2023 Cuts Elon Musk's attention has recently been largely focused on Twitter's activities, but he does not forget about Tesla. Musk intends to cut costs on everything from parts to logistics, while keeping the pressure on competitors with discounted sticker prices. Tesla is also cutting costs by redesigning battery and electric motor system components, removing features owners don't use, based on data collected from Model 3 sedans and Model Y SUVs on the road Elon Musk has a playbook for Tesla headed into what he believes will be a 'serious' recession: cut costs on everything from parts to logistics, while keeping the pressure on competitors with discounted sticker prices https://t.co/tyYV26iN6v pic.twitter.com/G1KyALvLjY — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) January 26, 2023 Apple has maintained its position as the largest smartphone manufacturer The difficult economic situation also affected the sales of smartphones. Global smartphone shipments declined in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to research firm IDC. A total of 1.21 billion smartphones were shipped in 2022, the lowest annual shipment volume since 2013 due to significantly weakened consumer demand, inflation and economic uncertainty. Apple has maintained its position as the largest smartphone manufacturer in the world. The US tech giant shipped 72.3 million iPhones in the fourth quarter, down 14.9% year-on-year. Samsung, the second largest player in the smartphone market, saw sales fall 15.6% year-on-year to 58.2 million units. Samsung did not release an all-new flagship smartphone for the fourth quarter. Smartphone shipments plunge to a low not seen since 2013 — their largest ever decline https://t.co/KHk5fHELJr — CNBC (@CNBC) January 26, 2023 Read next: Trump Returns To Social Media, Meta Will Restore The Former President's Account| FXMAG.COM Asia will be the leader in the future Since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, global growth has been put to a significant test. This was especially shown in 2022, where the growing inflation and interest rates affected the condition of the economies. Investors and economists are wondering whether global economic leaders will maintain their positions or will this change over the years as a result of events. The United States is the economic leader followed by China. According to economists, this may change and the main driving force of global growth will not be Western countries, but countries from Asia. This is very likely because most of the population is in this region, and this region is developing dynamically and thus offers jobs and attracts new residents. What countries are likely to power global growth in the decades to come? We cover the answer in our #ExchangesGS podcast here: https://t.co/G60vRNYV1u pic.twitter.com/w61esY8sv2 — Goldman Sachs (@GoldmanSachs) January 25, 2023 The future of Big Tech in 2023 2022 was a difficult year for Silicon Valley. After solid growth lasting more than a decade and a pandemic-induced boom, Big Tech giants like Meta, Alphabet and Apple have lost market value. Overall, Big Tech faces countless challenges in 2023, including macroeconomic pressures, increased competition, supply chain issues, and bloated cost structures. However, there are positive sides to every cloud: companies are now rethinking their business strategies, which could pave the way for a more sustainable era for Big Tech. For example, when it comes to Meta, the company is expected to continue to focus on its new AI Discovery engine, ads, and business platforms. Big Tech firms endured a tough year due to macro headwinds, supply chain issues, and plummeting revenues. J.P. Morgan Research explores the opportunities that lie ahead. — J.P. Morgan (@jpmorgan) January 25, 2023

We're happy to share Dominik Podlaski's, analyst at Bitget views on the RBA decision, British pound, the US GDP and earnings. This week Australian CPI goes public what do you expect from the print and the RBA decision on February 7th? Since the beginning of October we have had some relief at the global market, although it didn’t change the looming threat of recession. In my opinion, Australian CPI already peaked in October, so I expect it to lower down to 6.8%. On the other hand, I believe it won’t change the strict attitude of the RBA. 15th of December EBC followed FED hawkish approach. Klaas Knot, member of EBC from Denmark, declared the raise of interest rates by 50 points in February and March. The continuation of monetary policy tightening in Q2 is also probable. RBA governor Philip Lowe highlighted multiple times their main goal – “… target for monetary policy in Australia is to achieve an inflation rate of 2–3 per cent…” Therefore, in my opinion RBA will follow the USA and the EU in this case and we can expect a raise by half a percentage point. On top of that, I expect the following RBA meetings to have similar results. Read next: USA Q4 GDP should show a growth to 2.5% with a 2.6% clip for real final sales and a tiny $2 bln inventory addition | FXMAG.COM (Source: Reserve Bank of Australia (rba.gov.au)). Do you expect GBP may be somehow boosted by PMIs on Tuesday? This PMI may give GBP slight spike, especially if we will have reading over 50, what could mean major trend reversal. Right now, GBP it’s regaining some of its strength. Unfortunately, in the long term it won’t matter, as U.K. economy may be severely hit by recession, as economists predict. Goldman Sachs forecast a 1.2% contraction in U.K. real GDP over 2023, while other major countries may expect small (but still) expansion. Therefore I perceive incoming weeks as calm before the storm for GBP, as in my scenario it will surely follow the U.K. shattered economy. (Source: GDP - International Comparisons: Key Economic Indicators - House of Commons Library (parliament.uk)) FED won’t consider changing their plans after the announcement of GDP, as in this case even the good news for 2022 won’t be satisfying with the terrible GDP forecasts for 2023 In my opinion, we will see higher GDP than expected 2% - in Q3 and Q4 revisions we’ve seen stronger economic momentum than expected. Despite of this rather positive surprise it will still on the decreasing trend. Therefore, I expect safe haven assets, like gold, silver and platinum, to thrive. We may also see higher demand for Government Bonds, although the hawkish attitude of FED may lower the amount of investors looking for them. Higher than expected print may also be impulse for DXY to have a relief bounce, but I’m afraid it will still remain in the downtrend. (Source: Economic Forecast for the US Economy (conference-board.org)) FED won’t consider changing their plans after the announcement of GDP, as in this case even the good news for 2022 won’t be satisfying with the terrible GDP forecasts for 2023. Additionally, the GDP measurement is inflated by CPI and its lagging indicator, while FEDs decisions will have an effect in the near future. Therefore, in my honest opinion, the FED will remain strictly hawkish regardless of the GDP reading. Huge rounds of redundancies by Microsoft, Google, Amazon measured in thousands of employees raised many questions about their status Dark clouds gathered over market giants. Huge rounds of redundancies by Microsoft, Google, Amazon measured in thousands of employees raised many questions about their status. Therefore I don’t expect the earnings data to be impressive, but I wouldn’t be surprised if none of them actually witnessed shrinking revenue. Despite what the audience may be thinking in my opinion it’s not a sign of weakness, but an adaptation. In particular, they will need to do some positive PR after the redundancies and slowed down growth. During times of market despair strongest should make bold moves instead of counting on stable growth, and that’s what we can expect from them in the incoming weeks. Microsoft just’ve announced multibillion dollar investments with OpenAI – creator of ChatGPT. Therefore I expect nothing less from other giants but fireworks as well. (Source: Microsoft and OpenAI extend partnership - The Official Microsoft Blog)

Peter Garnry, Head of Equity Strategy at Saxo, talks the most popular stocks among bank's clients. The year has started on a strong note extending the momentum from the last quarter of 2022 which was fueled by China pivoting away from its zero Covid policy adding a positive impulse into the global economy. Besides the Chinese reopening adding to sentiment the market is increasingly betting on a shallow recession if any recession in the US economy, and a European and Chinese economy that will increase economic activity throughout the year. In addition, the market is pricing in inflation continuing to come down and central banks moving closer into a pause phase on policy rates avoiding tighter financial conditions. The combination of all these things have caused technology stocks to rally significantly in first month of trading with interest jumping massively in Tesla shares being the most traded stock. Tesla shares have generally enjoyed the positive sentiment in equities, but their aggressive price cut across several key EV models earlier this year is seen as a bold move and a sign of strength. Tesla shares are up 41% in January. Microsoft is another top traded stock and while the company reported a muted outlook for year as enterprise technology spending is coming down due to a cost focus among its customers the news that it has invested $10bn in OpenAI, which is behind the famous ChatGPT, has created a lot of attention by investors and Saxo clients. Read next: I believe BP’s upcoming quarterly figures are set to surpass expectations | FXMAG.COM Top Stocks (Shares) 1. Tesla Inc. 2. ASML Holding NV 3. Amazon.com Inc. 4. Microsoft Corp. 5. Apple Inc.  

Yesterday was, again, a fantastic day of trading for equities, as the less hawkish than expected tone from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) meetings joined the optimistic vibes from the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s ‘disinflationary process’ mention a day before, and all that combined with Facebook’s best rally in almost a decade painted the market in the green. S&P500 The S&P500 gained around 1.50%. Nasdaq 100 jumped more than 3.5% and entered bull market as Meta jumped more than 23%. Earnings But today will probably not be as fantastic as yesterday, as Apple, Amazon and Google announced earnings after the bell yesterday, and they all disappointed. US jobs data Maybe, the again-important US jobs data could temper the earnings-triggered weakness – if of course the NFP number, and more importantly the wages growth are sufficiently soft to keep the Fed doves in charge of the market. Rates Elsewhere, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) raised their rates by 50bp yesterday, but Lagarde sounded much less aggressive than the December meeting. Read next: USD/JPY Pair Is Trading At 128.48 The Aussie Pair Is Above 0.71$| FXMAG.COM Euro The EURUSD sold off. But I believe that the euro’s recovery hasn’t ended just yet, as we see the end of the tunnel for the Fed – as the Fed rates approach the 5% mark, while we don’t yet see the end of the tightening tunnel for the ECB. Watch the full episode to find out more and find the link to our latest blog article : www.swissquote.com/blog 0:00 Intro 0:50 Stocks rally on dovish central bank expectations, and Facebook… 2:10 … but Apple, Amazon and Google dampen the mood. 5:38 What kind of US jobs data could cheer up investors? 6:42 BoE’s tightening cycle may end soon 8:21 ECB’s Lagarde sounded less aggressive than last December, but euro should do fine… Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #US #NFP #wages #jobs #data #ECB #BoE #Fed #FOMC #meeting #Powell #disinflation #Meta #Apple #Google #Amazon #earnings #USD #EUR #GBP #Bailey #Lagarde #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH      

Another hawkish speech from the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell turned into a risk rally yesterday. Equities gained, and the bond yields fell. Fed Yet, yesterday’s speech from the Fed Chair Powell was hawkish. He said that the Fed may hike the rates more than what’s priced in if the jobs market remains unexpectedly strong. Stocks market The S&P500 still eased when Powell said they need ‘substantial evidence’ that inflation slowed, but finally, the index erased gains and ended the session by 1.30% higher. Nasdaq jumped more than 2%. The US 2-year yield eased and the US dollar first jumped, then eased. Zoom and Microsoft In individual stock news, Zoom jumped 10% on news that it will lay off 15% of its workforce, while Microsoft jumped 4% after the company unveiled its new ChatGPT-powered Bing! Forex The EURUSD tipped a toe below its latest bullish trend base, and below its 50-DMA yesterday, and the pair is just at the edge of bullish trend again this morning, with no guarantee that it won’t slide further. Cable rebounded before hitting its 200-DMA, at 1.1950, and is back above the 1.20 mark this morning. Read next: The Decline In Tech Valuations Continues To Hit SoftBank| FXMAG.COM Curde Oil BP shares price jumped nearly 8% to above our mid-term 500p target, after reporting report profit, dividend raise and share buyback, while crude oil jumped more than 4% as API revealed a 2-mio-barrel decline in US stockpiles. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:28 Jerome says one thing, investors hear another thing 1:36 Market update 3:30 One bad, two good news 5:02 Zoom jumps 10% 5:37 Why Microsoft’s AI could be longer-lived than metaverse craze? 7.27 FX update 8:28 BP rallies on profits, oil jumps on US inventories 9:37 Gold’s upside is likely limited Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Powell #speech #inflation #jobs #USD #EUR #GBP #XAU #crude #oil #earnings #Dell #Zoom #layoffs #Microsoft #ChatGPT #Bing #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Disney plans to reduce costs and lay off employees. And at the same time, Google and Microsoft implement artificial intelligence into their products. Disney Since 2019, when Disney+ launched, the segment has lost nearly $10 billion as the company has spent a lot on content to attract subscribers. Disney+ is part of Disney's direct-to-consumer business, which includes all video streaming platforms. The direct consumer business lost $1.05 billion in the December quarter. Iger is under pressure to make its streaming business profitable and revive the company's share price, which is down more than 40% from early 2021 highs. Disney plans to reduce the number of TV shows and movies it produces and aggressively manage its general entertainment content, which has become more expensive to produce in recent years due to competition. Moreover, it plans to cut 7,000 jobs and cut costs by $5.5 billion as part of a major corporate reorganization that gives more power to the content company's management and puts more emphasis on sports media at the company. Disney's share price has been rising since the new year. After a weak last two months of 2022 below 100.00, the stock is again above this level. Currently, the stock is close to 120.00, at 118.85. Google At an event in the French capital on Wednesday, Alphabet Inc unveiled a number of AI improvements to its search engine, including plans to start generating long text answers to complex queries with no single correct answer - for example, what constellations are best to look for when stargazing. This came after Google on Monday offered to look at a homegrown rival to the popular ChatGPT chatbot it calls Bard - and inadvertently demonstrated the artificiality of such tools when a screenshot of Bard's answer contained an obvious factual error. Google has unveiled new search and map features powered by artificial intelligence. Read next: The GBP/USD Pair Climbed To Around 1.2100, The EUR/USD Pair Is Above 1.0700| FXMAG.COM Google gave an additional look on Wednesday to its experimental conversational AI chatbot, Bard, which it rolled out to a group of third-party testers earlier this week. The company showed a brief demonstration of how a user can use Bard to suggest criteria to consider when trying to buy a new car or places to visit for a scenic trip. The company also said it is now rolling out a feature that allows Google Maps users to explore 3D representations of destinations - such as inside a restaurant - extrapolated by AI from ordinary 2D photos. And it said it is expanding the availability of a feature that allows users to search for maps for local businesses by pointing the phone to a nearby area. Alphabet shares closed up 7.7% on Wednesday. Microsoft In the midst of Google's announcements, on Tuesday Microsoft unveiled its plans to incorporate the generative AI technology behind ChatGPT into its Bing search engine. It demonstrated how it can process natural language queries to generate answers and suggestions using information such as news, train schedules and product prices. British antitrust authorities announced that Microsoft Corp. proposed to take over gaming giant Activision Blizzard Inc. for $75 billion, which puts Microsoft in a strong position in cloud gaming, and said the merger would hurt UK gamers - creating another major regulatory hurdle for a deal in a large global gaming market. The National Competition and Markets Authority said it would approach both companies to propose ways to alleviate its concerns and made a final decision on whether to allow the deal to go ahead at the end of April. The regulator has offered a list of potential countermeasures that may be hard for Microsoft to swallow. Other major regulators are also investigating the deal. In November, the Federal Trade Commission sued Microsoft to block the deal. Microsoft said the deal would be basically good for gamers, developers and competition. The company also stated that it is not a top console manufacturer or software developer in the video game industry. Microsoft shares fell 0.3%. Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com

US equities fell yesterday on the back of two important factors: hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) members, and the unexpected surge in the American used car prices. Stocks market The S&P500 fell more than 1%, while Nasdaq slid around 1.80%. Inside Nasdaq, Google had a particularly rough day, to say the least. The company posted a Tweet showing Bard in action, and the tweet went wrong, as Bard gave the wrong answer! The stock price slumped by more than 9% at some point. Microsoft Microsoft on the other hand was upbeat on the news, and its valuation shortly surpassed the $2 trillion mark. Uber, Disney Elsewhere, Uber jumped more than 5.5% on stronger than expected results. Disney also jumped by more than 5% in the afterhours, after reporting better than expected results, and the promise to slash $5.5 billion in costs, along with 7000 jobs. The US futures are in the positive at the time I am talking here, but the bears are not far away. Read next: Credit Suisse Reported Its Biggest Annual Loss Since The 2008, Ukrainian President Is Asking For Help And More Weapons In Brussels| FXMAG.COM Forex In the FX, the US dollar remains upbeat, but the 50-DMA offers remain a solid resistance to a bullish breakout. Likewise, the EURUSD remains bid at around the 50-DMA, and the dollar-yen remains offered into the 50-DMA. So that 50-DMA mark is the key resistance that must be cleared to set the dollar bulls free for further appreciation, and de-block the situation in the FX space. Energy In energy, US crude extended gains above its own 50-DMA yesterday. Could it extend gains higher, and by how much? Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:50 Equities fall on hawkish Fed comments… 3:45 … and sudden jump in used-car prices 5:54 Bard’s gaffe costs Google more than $100bn in market cap 7:22 Uber, Disney jump after earnings 8:29 USD must clear 50-dma for further appreciation 9:00 Crude’s next challenge Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Google #Bard #AI #gaffe #Microsoft #ChatGPT #Fed #hawkish #comments #inflation #jobs #USD #EUR #JPY #XAU #crude #oil #earnings #Uber #Disney #layoffs #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH      

At the same time, traders note that the market has recently been trading within fairly narrow boundaries. So, this month the S&P 500 did not rise above 4200 points and did not fall below 4000 points, according to MarketWatch. Saxo Bank's head of equity strategy Peter Garnry suggested that the market is moving into a tighter range in anticipation of new information from which it will be possible to decide whether to continue the uptrend or turn down. The number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time increased by 13,000 last week to 196,000, according to a report from the US Department of Labor. Analysts polled by Bloomberg predicted an average increase in the number of applications to 190,000. Dow Jones Industrial Average by 18:00 GMT + 3 increased by 0.65% and amounted to 34169.97 points. Leading gainers among the index components include Walt Disney, as well as Salesforce Inc., which rose 2.9%, Microsoft Corp. - by 1.8% and Intel Corp. - by 1.3%. The value of the Standard & Poor's 500 by this time increased by 0.6% - up to 4144.06 points. The Nasdaq Composite index has risen 0.9% since the market opened and reached 12021.51 points. Read next: Credit Suisse Reported Its Biggest Annual Loss Since The 2008, Ukrainian President Is Asking For Help And More Weapons In Brussels| FXMAG.COM   Walt Disney Co. share price increased by 4.5% in early trading. The world's largest entertainment and media company increased its net profit and revenue in the first quarter (October-December), largely due to strong performance in the amusement parks segment. The head of the company, Bob Iger, announced a reorganization of the business, which includes cutting costs by $5.5 billion a year and laying off about 7,000 people. He also promised to resume at the end of this year the payment of dividends suspended during the coronavirus pandemic. PepsiCo Inc. increased revenue in October-December by 10.9%, increased dividends by 10%. Shares of one of the world's largest producers of soft drinks are growing by 1.7%. Hilton Worldwide Holdings rose 2.5%. The hotel chain more than doubled its fourth-quarter net income, with its adjusted figure and revenue beating analysts' expectations. Cost of Kellogg Co. rises by 1.2%. The breakfast cereal and snack maker posted a net loss in the fourth quarter, but it was driven by write-downs related to the company's spin-off plan. At the same time, profit excluding one-time factors exceeded the forecasts of experts.     search   g_translate       Relevance up to 04:00 2023-02-11 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/312167

US stocks failed to keep up with the European optimism on the back of rising bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could hike the interest rates to 6%. In fact, option traders are piling into bets that the US rates could peak at 6%. Mexico’s Banxico Plus, the surprise 50bp hike from Mexico’s Banxico, on the back of unexpected – and unwelcomed inflation jump since the end of last year, also raised worries that the US could experience a similar uptick in inflation, and, may have to raise rates higher. Optimism And the strong US jobs market, the latest recovery in energy and commodity prices on the Chinese reopening optimism, and the sudden jump in second-hand car prices are red flags… Stock market The S&P500 fell 0.88% yesterday, and Nasdaq retreated 0.90%. Topsellers will likely remain in charge of the market on the possibility that maybe inflation in the US may have not eased to 6.2% as expected by analysts. But nothing is clear before next Tuesday’s CPI release, in terms of Fed expectations. USD What’s interesting though, is that the hawkish Fed bets don’t translate fully into the US dollar valuation. The US dollar remains under pressure despite the positive pressure on the US yields. And the 50-DMA offers remain particularly solid in the US dollar index. Read next: Twitter Co-Founder Jack Dorsey Comments New Twitter's Owner| FXMAG.COM Bitcoin Finally, Bitcoin fell 5% on news that Kraken stops staking. Negative pressure in tech stocks could further weigh on appetite. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:32 Swiss stocks fell on mixed bag of bad news 2:48 US stocks under pressure as option traders bet for 6% Fed rate 5:25 AI divergence between Microsoft and Google intensifies 5:57 Tesla rallies past $200 but… 6:47 US dollar remains offered at 50-DMA. What are traders waiting for? 7:29 Bitcoin under pressure as Kraken halts staking Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Fed #peak #rate #hawkish #bets #US #inflation #Tesla #Google #Bard #AI #gaffe #Microsoft #ChatGPT #USD #EUR #JPY #Bitcoin #Kraken #CreditSuisse #Trafigura #Swatch #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Everyone has dreams for which is to do everything, even spend a colossal amount. An example of such a dream is the dream of a 73-year-old engineer who bought a plane to turn it into an apartment. In this article: Artificial Intelligence (AI) momentum A plane has been turned into a makeshift apartment Barbados is the first country to reach a staff-level agreement to access the IMF's Resilience and Sustainability Trust Artificial Intelligence (AI) momentum Artificial intelligence (AI) related cryptocurrency tokens saw a significant price spike when ChatGPT OpenAI was first released on November 30 last year. After the initial news of ChatGPT, the prices of AI-related tokens have fallen since late December 2022. When on January 11, 2023, the OpenAI research lab launched a pilot of the premium paid version of ChatGPT, investor interest in AI chatbots revived and again led to an increase in the price of AI tokens. AI token prices have increased 2 to 16 times since February 7, 2023, compared to November 30, 2022, as crypto investors poured into the AI narrative. Developments that have contributed to the AI momentum include Microsoft's multi-billion dollar investment in OpenAI and Google's own AI Bard chatbot. #AI has been all the rage this week! 🤖Let's dive deeper to understand how the release of @OpenAI's #ChatGPT and @Google's #Bard has impacted the prices of AI-related cryptocurrencies ⤵️ https://t.co/Tyxz8LRwen — CoinGecko (@coingecko) February 11, 2023 A plane has been turned into a makeshift apartment The 73-year-old turned a plane into a makeshift apartment. His monthly expenses are $370 a month, including $220 a month for property taxes and $100 to $250 a month for electricity. In the early 1970s, Bruce Campbell paid $25,800 for 10 acres of land in Hillsboro, a suburb of Portland, Oregon. An electrical engineer who is now 73 and lives in a parked plane on his property. After months of searching, the company found the Campbell, a 200-passenger Boeing 727 that was 1,066 square feet and weighed about 70,000 pounds. It was found in Greece and is part of American history… in a way. The plane was used to transport the remains of airline owner Aristotle Onassis in 1975. Campbell paid $100,000 for it, and the plane flew from Greece to Oregon to prepare it for takeover. 73-year-old pays $370/month to live in a plane he bought for $100,000 from a salvage yard: "I have no regrets." (via @CNBCMakeIt) https://t.co/TuGYbs81EU — CNBC (@CNBC) February 12, 2023 Barbados is the first country to reach a staff-level agreement to access the IMF's Resilience and Sustainability Trust The IMF's Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST) helps low-income and vulnerable middle-income countries build resilience to external shocks and ensure sustainable growth, contributing to their long-term balance of payments stability. It complements the IMF's existing lending toolkit by providing long-term, affordable financing to meet long-term challenges, including climate change and pandemic preparedness. Barbados is the first country to reach a staff-level agreement to access the IMF's Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST), which aims to provide affordable, long-term funding to help build resilience to climate change. Under the agreement, which is subject to approval by the IMF Executive Board, Barbados will have access to 141.75 million SDRs (approximately $183 million) under the RST and an additional 85.05 million SDRs (approximately $110 million) under the 36-month Extended Facility fund (EDF) to maintain and strengthen  macroeconomic stability and to continue the structural reform agenda. Barbados is among the first countries to request financing from the IMF's Resilience and Sustainability Trust for affordable, long-term financing to help the Caribbean island nation build resilience to climate change. https://t.co/2sBjai6Nxe pic.twitter.com/zupsIRu2a0 — IMF (@IMFNews) February 12, 2023

While a technical correction is brewing in the crypto market, especially given the rally seen earlier this year, software giant Microsoft has announced that it is closing one of its largest Industrial Metaverse Core groups. The company reportedly laid off its entire Industrial Metaverse Core group of 100 employees. This came as part of an announced layoff of 10,000 people in January. Microsoft, the Washington-based software giant, abandons the metaverse in favor of other initiatives. According to The Information, the company has disbanded the Industrial Metaverse Core group, a division of the company dedicated to bringing the metaverse into an industrial environment. The group was created just four months ago and was expected to serve as a bridge to implement metaverse interfaces to control power plants, industrial robotics, and transportation networks. The division was part of the efforts directed to bring the metaverse to industrial environments by bridging software to this initiative. The tech giant's spokesperson comments "Microsoft remains committed to the industrial metaverse. We are applying our focus to the areas of the industrial metaverse that matter most to our customers and they will see no change in how they are supported. We look forward to sharing additional information in the future," the tech giant's spokesperson said. According to experts, this suggests that Microsoft will now use some of its resources from metaverse initiatives and pour them into other areas, such as artificial intelligence. Earlier reports show that Microsoft's cuts have affected other metaverse projects, as well as employees of the Altspacevr metaverse platform, which announced its closure by March of this year. Since January of this year, Microsoft has been actively investing in AI-based start-ups. Thus, against the backdrop of the crypto winter, it is not surprising that the company shut down a number of non-core projects and refocused on more alternative directions. Most likely, once the crypto industry "rises from the ashes," which will affect the emergence of new start-ups, including in the metaverse, it will be easier for Microsoft to invest in them at an early stage than to spend money and maintain their development. Read next: GBP/USD Pair Rose Sharply Above $1.22, EUR/USD Pair Also Rose| FXMAG.COM Bitcoin As for bitcoin, the pressure on it remains quite high. If BTC drops below $21,700, it may face another major sell-off. We can talk about the return of bulls to the market only after the return and fixation at $22,580, which will return the bullish trend with the prospect of hitting $23,350 and $24,000. The next target is located at $25,034, where a rather large profit-taking and a bitcoin pullback may occur. If the pressure on the trading instrument persists, bulls will have to protect $21,700, a breakthrough of which will be a blow to the asset. That will bring the pressure back on bitcoin, pushing the price down to $20,740. Breaking through this level, the world's first cryptocurrency may plummet deeper to the area of $19,770. The price may hit the highs Buyers of ether are now focused on returning the price back to the resistance of $1,521, which they failed to protect earlier this week. This will be enough to weather the drawdown and prevent a new sell-off in the asset. The price may hit the highs and continue its bullish trend only after getting above $1,604 and $1,690, which will bring the ether back in balance, with the prospect of rising to a high of $1,758. The next target is located in the area of $1,819. If the pressure on the trading instrument remains and the price declines, ether is likely to touch $1,410 and $1320. If these levels are pierced, the trading instrument may reach a low of $1,260, which would be quite painful for cryptocurrency holders.   Relevance up to 12:00 2023-02-15 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/335071

And we've got it! 77 Q4 2022 held investment reports from superinvestor funds. What did the best of the best in this market invest in and walk away from, and what can we learn from this?  First, the highlights The 13F report is a form that investment funds in the United States must file if they control or manage assets of $100 million or more. Form 13F contains information about investments in individual listed companies, including the number of shares and the value of those investments at the end of each quarter. This information is publicly available. The most frequently held companies currently in superinvestors' portfolios are: Google (Alphabet) - as many as 31 times, Microsoft (Microsoft) - 30 times, Meta Platforms (Facebook) - 25 times, Amazon.com (Amazon) - 24 times and Visa (Visa) - 24 times. We have already had the opportunity to discuss the portfolios of George Soros and Warren Buffett. This time, however, let us look at their activities collectively. The most frequently bought companies By far the most frequently bought company was e-commerse giant Amazon.com (Amazon), which was snapped up by as many as 15 super-investors. This seems interesting particularly given the problems of the consumer goods sector, which seems to be particularly negatively affected by the economic slowdown and high interest rates. Amazon currently accounts for 1.62 per cent in the value of all superinvestor portfolios. Source: Conotoxia MT5, Amazon, Daily The second most bought company was technology giant Meta Platforms (Facebook), which was acquired by as many as 13 super-investors in Q4 2022. Following problems with its - seemingly misguided - investment of more than $13 billion in the Metaverse, the company announced a 13 per cent job cut. The cost reduction may have improved investor sentiment, as the company's shares, after falling as much as 78 per cent, have now rebounded 122 per cent from the bottom. Meta accounts for 1.31 per cent of the value of all superinvestors' portfolios. Source: Conotoxia MT5, Facebook, Daily The third most bought company was another tech giant that has recently become famous for its investment in artificial intelligence - Microsoft (Microsoft). It was bought by as many as 11 of the super-investors. The company is now the largest position among all funds, accounting for as much as 2.36 per cent of their portfolios. Source: Conotoxia MT5, Microsoft, Daily In fourth place was Microsoft's biggest competitor, Google (Alphabet), which appears to be focusing on creating a tool such as ChatGPT. The company was bought by nine super-investors in the last quarter of last year, and its shares accounted for 1.52 per cent of the value of funds' portfolios. Source: Conotoxia MT5, alphabet, Daily The most sold companies Interestingly, the most sold company turned out to be the previously mentioned Microsoft. It was sold by 14 super-investors. The largest buyer was Daniel Loeb (Third Point fund), who increased the company's stake by 4.75 per cent of his portfolio, and the largest seller was John Armitage (Egerton Capital fund), reducing the company's stake by 5 per cent of his portfolio. Ex aequo with Microsoft was the world's largest payment service provider, Visa (Visa), also sold by 14 super-investors, with only four of them buying its shares. Viking Global Investors fund bought the largest stake, accounting for 0.46 per cent of its portfolio value, while Lee Ainsile (Maveric Capital fund) opted for the largest sale with 1.32 per cent of its portfolio value. It appears that the reluctance to buy the company may be linked to expectations of reduced consumer activity in the coming quarters. Source: Conotoxia MT5, Visa, Daily In third place were Google shares sold by 12 of the super investors. China's Li Lu (Himalaya Capital Management fund) seems to be by far the most optimistic about the company's future. He increased the company's stake by as much as 7.3 per cent of the value of his portfolio. The biggest pessimist, on the other hand, was Josh Tarasoff from the Greenlea Lane Capital fund. He reduced his position in the company by 2.2 per cent of the value of his portfolio. What conclusions can we draw from this? Based on the investments of all super investors, it is therefore difficult to identify the best and worst assets. This may be due to the fundamental issue of different investment styles and strategies. Therefore, drawing conclusions from the investments undertaken should be preceded by an understanding of the style of the fund in question and its assumptions for entering and exiting positions. Grzegorz Dróżdż, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76,41% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Bing with AI and ChatGPT are some of the first major tech releases that show just how persuasive, and sometimes disturbing, new AI chatbots can be. First errors Just over a week after Microsoft Corp. presented its new search engine Bing the first testers point out the errors and disturbing answers generated by this technology. Microsoft unveiled the updated Bing at an event last week at its headquarters in Redmond, Washington. The company says the change enables a new type of search, where people will ask questions to the search engine in natural language, and Bing will generate direct answers and suggestions, as opposed to directing users to different websites. Some parts of the demo were problematic: Microsoft showed how Bing could generate and compare public company leaderboards with regular language prompts, but the information Bing displayed contained errors. In the days that followed, people began sharing their experiences online, with many pointing out mistakes and confusing answers. When a user asked Bing to write a newspaper article about the Super Bowl "this just happened", Bing provided details of last year's soccer championship game. Read next: USD/JPY Is Trading Close To 134.00, EUR/USD Is Remaining Above $1.07| FXMAG.COM Microsoft's answer On its blog, Microsoft said that feedback on the new Bing has been mostly positive so far, with 71% of users giving it a "thumbs up". Microsoft said it has found that Bing starts coming up with weird responses after chat sessions of 15 or more questions, and that it may repeat itself or respond in a way that doesn't match its designed tone. The company said it was trying to train the technology to be more reliable in finding the latest sports scores and financial data. It is also considering adding a toggle that would allow users to decide if they want Bing to be more or less creative in their responses. Microsoft's quick response to user feedback reflects the importance the company sees in people's reactions to the emerging technology looking to capitalize on ChatGPT's groundbreaking success. The company intends to use this technology to ward off the dominance of Alphabet Inc. in a search through your Google entity. In a blog post, Microsoft said it expects the new Bing to improve over time as more people use it. "The only way to improve a product like this where the user experience is so different from anything anyone has seen before is to allow people like you to use the product and do exactly what everyone else is doing," the company said. Not only Microsoft Microsoft isn't the only company that has had trouble launching its new AI tool. When Google followed Microsoft's lead in exposing ChatGPT's rival Bard last week, the tool's answer to one question contained an obvious factual error. He claimed that the James Webb Space Telescope took the "first pictures" of an exoplanet outside the solar system. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration says on its website that the first pictures of the exoplanet were taken in 2004 by another telescope. Microsoft share price After February 14, Microsoft's stock hit its all-time high, the stock fell. MSFT shares fell from 272.17 to 259.72. The price level of 272.17 was last traded in September last year. Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com

Ethereum’s second testnet was successfully activated. Decentralised perpetual exchange Fulcrom Finance is live. Solana suffered a 20-hour outage with the root cause still unknown. Weekly DeFi Index This week’s market cap, volume, and volatility indices were negative at -1.96%, -22.18%, and -6.94%, respectively.         Yearn Finance (YFI) developers announced that they will soon launch a liquid staking product called yETH, enabling users to gain exposure to a basket of liquid staking derivatives via a single token. New Project Spotlight Decentralised perpetual exchange Fulcrom Finance is live. Built on the Cronos blockchain, it enables users to trade with up to 25x leverage while enjoying low fees and negligible price impact. Visit the Fulcrom website to learn more.         News Highlights Ethereum developers have successfully activated the Shanghai-Capella upgrade on the Sepolia testnet. The upgrade will be released to the Goerli testnet as a final run-through before the full launch on the mainnet next month.  After more than 150,000 ETH were staked with Lido Finance in a single day, a safety precaution known as ’staking rate limit’ for the liquid staking protocol was activated.  Tech giant Microsoft is partnering with decentralised blockchain infrastructure firm Ankr to provide an innovative node hosting service that will become available on the Microsoft Azure Marketplace. The partnership will see an integration of both companies’ technologies, pairing Ankr’s innovation in blockchain infrastructure with Microsoft’s cloud solutions.  Web3 infrastructure firm Jump Crypto and DeFi platform Oasis.app carried out a “counter exploit” on the Wormhole protocol hacker after receiving an order from the High Court of England and Wales. They recovered US$225 million in digital assets, which were moved to a secure wallet.  A number of the Polygon blockchain’s nodes went out of sync on Wednesday, leading to a chain reaction of issues that affected performance and caused the widely used blockchain explorer PolygonScan to go offline.  The Solana blockchain suffered a 20-hour outage over the weekend, forcing its validators to restart the network twice after on-chain activity froze. According to its developers, the reason for the network-wide outage is still unknown and inquiries are underway. The algorithmic backing for the DeFi protocol Frax Finance was removed after a community vote to fully collateralise the protocol’s native stablecoin Frax (FRAX) was passed. MyAlgo, a native wallet for the Algorand blockchain network, advised its users to withdraw their funds. This was in response to a $9.6 million exploit that it encountered last week, which affected 25 wallets. Read next: Some McDonald's Locations Don't Promote Hip-Hop Stars' New Meal| FXMAG.COM     Research Roundup Newsletter [January 2023]: In our latest issue, we feature market insights and our research on artificial intelligence trends, the rise of AI-generated content, and their applications in blockchain and Web3. Alpha Navigator: Quest for Alpha [January 2023]: Crypto outperforms other asset classes in January by a large margin. BTC options put-call ratio are at a yearly low, implying a positive sentiment shift. AI-Generated Content and Applications in Web3: Artificial Intelligence-Generated Content (AIGC) has taken the world by storm recently, with popular applications like ChatGPT and DALL-E. We analyse its potential applications in Web3. We’re all ears. Your feedback has always helped us provide insightful crypto market trends. Tell us how we can improve this newsletter further by taking a quick survey below (it will only take less than a minute). Thank you! Take our survey now Disclaimer The information in this report is provided as general market commentary by Crypto.com and its affiliates, and does not constitute any financial, investment, legal, tax, or any other advice. This report is not intended to offer or recommend any access to products and/or services. While we endeavour to publish and maintain accurate information, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information in this report nor do we adopt nor endorse, nor are we responsible for, the accuracy or reliability of any information submitted by other parties. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of, or located in a jurisdiction, where such distribution or use would be contrary to applicable law or that would subject Crypto.com and/or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement. The brands and the logos appearing in this report are registered trademarks of their respective owners. Author Research and Insights Team Get fresh market updates delivered straight to your inbox: Subscribe to newsletters   Be the first to hear about new insights: Follow us on Twitter Tags CRYPTO RESEARCH CRYPTOCURRENCIES

Stocks linked with AI and stocks of companies which are commonly known to have invested in such technologies are arousing investors' interest, while at FXMAG we wonder if the AI isn't another bubble. Let's hear from Ramesh Mungara (VT Markets). Ramesh Mungara (VT Markets): It is important to note that predicting market trends and bubbles is a complex task that involves many factors, including economic conditions, investor sentiment, and technological advancements. The global artificial intelligence market size was valued at USD 136.55 billion in 2022 and is projected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 37.3% from 2023 to 2030. The continuous research and innovation directed by tech giants are driving the adoption of advanced technologies in industry verticals, such as automotive, healthcare, retail, finance, and manufacturing. It is also important to note that the AI market is not a single entity, but rather a collection of different technologies and applications that are being developed and deployed in various industries. Some of these technologies may see more rapid growth than others, and some may experience a period of hype before their potential impact is fully realized. Tech giants like Amazon.com, Inc.; Google LLC; Apple Inc.; Facebook; International Business Machines Corporation; and Microsoft are investing significantly in the research and development of AI AI is proven to be a significant revolutionary element of the upcoming digital era. Tech giants like Amazon.com, Inc.; Google LLC; Apple Inc.; Facebook; International Business Machines Corporation; and Microsoft are investing significantly in the research and development of AI. Whilst North America accounts for 43% of market share for 2022, it is the Asia Pacific region that is forecasted and expected to grow the most (42%) from years 2023 to 2030. For the rest of this year however, the steady growth path the AI market has taken, it is forecasted to grow by another $42.4 billion. AI is proven to be a significant revolutionary element of the upcoming digital era Read next: One of Ueda's main priorities is to achieve the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target, which has eluded the central bank for years| FXMAG.COM The significant investment made into AI will certainly yield favourable results. The AI market remains relatively new to global investors and like most new markets, there will be optimism and opportunities for both long term investors and short-term speculators. It's longevity and true success however will only be realized over time. While there is always the possibility of a bubble in any market, it is also possible that the growth in the AI market is driven by real demand and the potential benefits that these technologies can offer. It is up to investors to carefully evaluate the opportunities and risks in the market and make informed decisions based on their own analysis and research.

UBS bought Credit Suisse (CS) in a government-brokered deal for 0.76 cents of franc per share, or CHF3bn in total.  The Swiss National Bank (SBN) offered UBS $100 billion in liquidity to make sure that the takeover would go smoothly, and Swiss government offered 9 billion francs guarantee on CS losses. The deal triggered a complete write-down of all CS's additional tier 1 bonds.   US dollar weakened and US futures opened in the positive but reversed losses while the Japanese Nikkei fell 1.42%, Hang Seng dropped more than 3%.  The next few hours of trading will give us a better picture on whether the crisis is contained. In theory, there is no reason for the Credit Suisse crisis to extend, as what triggered the last quake for Credit Suisse was a confidence crisis – which doesn't concern UBS - a bank outside of the turmoil, with, in addition, ample liquidity and guarantee from the SNB and the government.   Fed decision time!  So, if all goes well, shaky days across banks will soon be left behind and investors could concentrate on the Federal Reserve (Fed) decision.   One thing is important to note: the Fed's Quantitative Tightening (QT) was clearly out of the window since the Silicon Vally Bank (SVB) debacle. The Fed's balance sheet ticked higher last week, to help easing stress across banks.   But the QT and last week's emergency intervention are conceptionally different.  And more interestingly, while we could think that the reverse-QT, could have some negative implications for inflation – because the Fed is adding liquidity into the system - an index on financial conditions in the US suggests that the financial conditions have tightened sharply since last week, to the tightest levels since last fall and that could be an argument for the Fed to pause its rate hikes. Read next: UBS buys Credit Suisse for $3.2bn. Last week was the worst one for equity markets in 2023| FXMAG.COM   But perhaps not from this week. The expectation for this week's meeting is still a 25bp hike from the Fed. Activity on Fed funds futures gives around 60% chance for a 25bp hike this Wednesday.   The March dot plot and Powell's accompanying statement will be as important as the rate decision. On the data front, US short-term inflation expectations fell in March to the lowest levels since 2021. That's excellent news for the Fed's inflation battle as inflation expectations have a material impact on where inflation, itself, is headed.   A boon for the Big Tech  The banking turmoil has been a boon for the tech stocks last week. The sharp fall in rate hike expectations which resulted in a sharp fall in yields drove more than $500 billion in market value to Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon last week.   Microsoft rallied more than 15%, Amazon gained almost 15% as well and flirted with the $100 psychological mark. Same with Google, it also gained around 15% and closed the week above the $100 for the first time since the beginning of February, while Apple added 6%.   And Bitcoin, which has a strong correlation with tech stocks, gained 45% since the March 10 dip – and more importantly, showed that it could act as a hedge to a global bank stress.   It's yet to be seen whether the Big Tech could hold on to their gains if the Fed brings its inflation battle back on the table.  Oversold.  Crude oil kicked off the week under pressure, below the $70pb level as the bank stress weigh on global growth prospects and sent the price of a barrel below this psychological level. The RSI indicator suggests that the American crude stepped into oversold market conditions, meaning that crude oil has been sold too fast in a too short period of time, and a positive correction would be healthy at the current levels.

Crypto.com secures MVP license from Dubai virtual assets regulator. Ethereum sets April 12 as target date for Shanghai upgrade. Microsoft integrating crypto wallet into Edge browser. Weekly Market Index Last week’s crypto market prices were up significantly at +30.31%. Volume and volatility also increased significantly by +58.83% and +133.99%, respectively.      Weekly Performance Bitcoin (BTC) surged +25.6% and Ethereum (ETH) rose by +12.1% in the past seven days. Other selected top-cap tokens also mostly rallied.     News Highlights Crypto.com received its MVP Preparatory License from Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA). Once licensed to be operational, Crypto.com will be able to extend its approved suite of duly regulated virtual assets activities spanning a range of crypto exchange services (spot and derivatives), brokerage, margin/leverage trading, and OTC offerings around settlements for institutional investors.  The US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points on March 22 despite recent banking sector turmoil, according to a strong majority of economists polled by Reuters. In other macro related news, UBS agreed to buy Credit Suisse for US$3.2 billion, with Swiss regulators playing a key part in the deal as governments looked to stem a contagion threatening the global banking system. Ethereum developers set a target date of 12 April for the Shanghai upgrade, which will enable staked ETH withdrawals. Microsoft is reportedly working on integrating a crypto and non-fungible token (NFT) friendly Web3 wallet into its Edge browser. Recent Research Reports     Research Roundup Newsletter [February 2023]: In our latest issue, we feature trending market insights and our analyses of the current state of decentralised derivatives market. Overview of Decentralised Derivatives: Crypto derivatives dominate the market today, representing about 70% of the entire crypto market. In this report, we shed light on derivatives in DeFi, their market overview, and some innovations in the space. Alpha Navigator: Quest for Alpha [February 2023]: Asset classes took a breather in February and sold off, although crypto bucked the trend. BTC and ETH options implied volatilities remain at subdued levels. Catalyst Calendar             Disclaimer: The information in this report is provided as general market commentary by Crypto.com and its affiliates, and does not constitute any financial, investment, legal, tax, or any other advice. This report is not intended to offer or recommend any access to products and/or services. While we endeavour to publish and maintain accurate information, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information in this report nor do we adopt nor endorse, nor are we responsible for, the accuracy or reliability of any information submitted by other parties. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of, or located in a jurisdiction, where such distribution or use would be contrary to applicable law or that would subject Crypto.com and/or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement. The brands and the logos appearing in this report are registered trademarks of their respective owners. Author Research and Insights Team Get fresh market updates delivered straight to your inbox: Subscribe to newsletters   Be the first to hear about new insights: Follow us on Twitter Tags CRYPTO RESEARCH CRYPTOCURRENCIES MARKET Source: Crypto Market Pulse (20/03/2023)

Summary:  This week, focus will be on the Fed's preferred inflation read, the first BOJ policy meeting in the Ueda era, as well as Chinese Industrial Profits and Australia CPI. Five of the 10 biggest companies in the MSCI All World Index report this week, including Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Exxon. Earnings misses, on already revised-down earnings estimates could threaten stock prices. We cover what you need to watch and why options for downside protection are rising. US GDP growth is expected to slow modestly to 2% The advance reading of the US real GDP growth, scheduled to release on Thursday, is expected, according to Bloomberg’s survey of economists, to slow to 2% Q/Q annualized in Q1, down from 2.6% in Q4 last year. Despite inventory drawdown is potentially dragging GDP growth, personal consumption is expected to come in strong at 4% Q/Q annualized and be the key driving force to sustain GDP growth in Q1. US core CPI deflator and employment cost index to gauge the Fed’s interest rate path This Friday, we will have the release of the Fed’s preferred measures of inflation and wage growth. The median forecast for core PCE from economists surveyed by Bloomberg is 0.3% M/M and 4.5% Y/Y in March (versus 0.3% M/M, 4.6% Y/Y in February). As rent-related components have a smaller weight in the core PCE measures than in the core CPI calculation, the core PCE may not benefit as much as the CPI counterpart from the recent weaknesses in rents. Investors will monitor closely the core service excluding housing sub-index in the PCE report to gauge the underlying consumer inflation trend in the U.S. Meanwhile, the headline PCE deflator growth is expected to slow to 0.1% M/M and 4.1% Y/Y in March from 0.3% M/M and 5.0% Y/Y in February. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is the Fed’s preferred measure of wage growth. The Bloomberg surveyed consensus is expecting the ECI to tick up to 1.1% Q/Q in Q1, from 1.0% in Q4. The implied Y/Y change will be 5.0% in Q1, below the 5.1% in Q4. The first BOJ policy meeting in the Ueda era This Friday, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is concluding its two-day monetary policy meeting, the first under the reign of Mr. Ueda. The majority of investors as suggested in various surveys are expecting no change to policies, including the yield curve control (YCC) policy at this meeting. At a press conference earlier this month, Ueda reiterated his stance that the YCC policy is appropriate in view of the current economic, price and financial situation. Investors are expecting some sort of changes to the YCC policy later this year but are divided in the forms of policy changes ranging from widening the current +/- 50bps band, shortening the tenor of the Japanese Government bond (JGB) yield that is targeted from currently 10-year to the 5-year or even the 2-year JGB, or even completely abolishing it. A change to the YCC policy is likely to make the Yen stronger. Chinese industrial profits are on watch: bringing iron ore and copper prices and stock in focus On Thursday traders will be watching Chinese Industrial Profits, looking for clues that China’s industrial sector has the propensity to increase commodity buying. Recent gains in factory output, as well as a seasonal increase in sales and exports, could reflect that industrial profits are improving in sorts; with profits expected to show a 11% YoY drop, which will mark an improvement from the prior 22% pull back in profitability YOY, according to Bloomberg. The data could also either validate or quash remarks that have been swirling, saying Chinese steel mills are experiencing a large profit squeeze, with some curbing output. As for trading implications; we will be watching iron ore and copper prices, as well as big miners shares and ETFs. Also consider the iron ore price pulled back 7% last week and trades almost down 3% on Monday, on concerns China will slow demand, at a time when iron ore producers such as Rio and Fortescue are exporting record amounts of iron ore, with traders concerns oversupply will continue to pressure iron ore prices lower. Read next: IG analyst to FXMAG.COM: In my opinion commodity prices already reflect higher oil prices| FXMAG.COM Australian CPI and potential implications for AUD On Wednesday Australia CPI will be in focus. Inflation is expected to cool with softening food prices to push down the figures, compared to last year’s weather-related price spikes. YoY inflation is expected to drop from 7.8% to 6.9%. QoQ inflation is expected to cool from 1.9% to 1.3%, that’s according to Bloomberg consensus. However, the RBA expects a 1.8% QoQ inflation read, and 7.4% annually. All in all, If hotter reads come through, it could validate the RBA hiking rates next week and see the AUD knee-jerk higher. However, near term downside is alive as commodity prices continue to retreat. Plus, AUD failed to close above the April 14 high of 0.6806 last week, so the April low could be reachable. And downside could pick up if a weaker CPI read come through, as it will likely keep the RBA in pause mode, next week. Also note leveraged funds increased their short positions in the AUUSD for a second week. Over the longer term though, Saxo’s house view is that China’s economy will outperform this year, and this should theoretically support the AUD. Plus commodity prices are widely expected to pick up later this year, supported to Chinese growth picking up. And if you add a potential Fed cut, we could see a downtrend in the overvalued USD. US earnings wrap: how is it going so far? So far this US quarterly earnings season 87 out of the S&P500 have reported results and 73% beat expectations. That said, overall aggregate earnings have declined 1.6% in the quarter. The Materials sector has seen the biggest drop in aggregate earnings, falling 43%. Tech earnings declined 36% on average. Meanwhile in positive news, Industrials reported the most average earnings growth of 47%, with Alaska Air reporting that demand has returned to pre-pandemic levels. US earnings this week; and why risk appetite for downside protection is rising This week, we will get a big reality check, with 170 members of the S&P500 reporting results and a lot of those being blue chips. Five of the 10 biggest companies in the MSCI all world Index report, including Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Exxon. Earnings misses, on already revised-down earnings estimates could really threaten stock prices. Analysts are expecting tech profits earnings to see the biggest drop since 2009, as big tech’s customers are curbing spending on software, cloud and advertising services, given they’re pinched by inflation and higher borrowing costs.  So, focus will be on commentary about how cost-reduction measures, such as mass layoffs have helped ease margin pressures. Tech stocks in the S&P500 are trading at 25 times prospective earnings, and some traders think this is too expensive given earnings growth is going backwards (with average tech earnings growth down 37% far out). As such, some option traders have increased their bets of a pull back in the Nasdaq 100. The cost of contracts protecting against a 10% decline in the Invesco QQQ Trust, the largest ETF tracking the Nasdaq 100 Index, is now 1.7 times more than the cost of options that profit from a 10% rally. Big tech companies – what to watch, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon  Microsoft (MSFT) reports on Tuesday and expected to report a decline in PC sales and a slowdown in cloud services, which will likely continue to weigh on the top-line, with consensus forecasting the smallest constant-currency revenue growth since 2017. AI enhancements to its search engine, Bing are not likely to translate to sizable sales growth for the company in the near term, but, forward commentary will be watched like a hawk, given Bing is touted to potentially threaten Google’s search dominance. This could be a catalyst for higher forward revenue from advertisers. Alphabet’s (GOOGL) also reports on Tuesday, and growth is likely to remain dull, with a pullback in ad spending, particularly by the financial sector, adding to headwinds, while its core search-ads business si expected to remain pressured by macroeconomic uncertainty. Meta Platforms (META) could be the shining light for big tech, when they report on Tuesday. Operating margins is widely expected to expand sequentially by 18% and see Meta return to growth after four quarters of declines. Weak engagement on the Facebook app remains a real drag on Meta’s ad-impressions growth, but there has been increasing contribution from Instagram Reels, WhatsApp and messaging ads. So focus will be on that translating in the numbers. Amazon (AMZN) is widely expected to report its the weakest quarterly revenue growth on record on Thursday. Until we see cloud-services momentum re-accelerating, it’s possible operating margins will remain under pressure. This week’s key earnings releases   Monday 24 April Coca-Cola (KO) Whirlpool (WHR) First Republic Bank (FRC) Tuesday 25 April Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Microsoft (MSFT) General Motors (GM) Raytheon (RTX) United Parcel Service (UPS) Wednesday 26 April Meta (META) Boeing Thursday 27 April Amazon (AMZN) Caterpillar (CAT) Northrop Grumman (NOC) Merck (MRK) Capital One Financial (COF) Friday 28 April Exxon (XOM) Chevron (CVX) Colgate-Palmolive (CL)   This week’s economic key events Monday 24 April Germany IFO business climate (Apr) Tuesday 25 April US New home sales (Mar) US Conference Board consumer confidence (Apr) Wednesday 26 April Australia CPI (Q1) US Durable goods orders (Mar) Thursday 27 April US GDP (Q1) Eurozone Consumer confidence (Apr) Friday 28 April Bank of Japan policy meeting US PCE deflator (Mar) US Employment cost index (Q1) Germany, France, Eurozone GDP (Q1) Germany, France CPI (Apr) Sunday 30 AprilChina manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI (Apr) Source: Saxo Spotlight: What’s on investors & traders radars this week? | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

Barclays Q1 23 – 27/04 – Barclays shares briefly hit their lowest levels in over 2 years earlier this year on the back of the turmoil in the banking sector during the month of March, although their Q4 and full-year numbers had already started to undermine the gains seen since the start of the year. Notwithstanding the losses incurred in H1 due to over issuance of debt securities have dragged on its performance, the miss on its Q4 numbers saw the shares slide sharply. For Q4, pre-tax profits came in short of expectations as did revenues. Q4 attributable profit came in at £1bn, pushing full-year group attributable profit to £5bn. The corporate and investment bank saw a 2% decline in Q4 revenues to £2.57bn with a disappointing performance across the board. Operating expenses over the year came in as expected at £16.7bn, up from £14.66bn in 2021, with £1.6bn of that related to litigation and conduct charges. Credit impairment charges were £1.2bn, with another £700m set aside in Q4. The dividend was increased to 7.25p from 6p, with the bank pledging a buyback of £500m. Barclays CEO Venkat expressed caution over global economic conditions but was optimistic about the outlook. Nonetheless, the turbulence seen in Q1 is likely to see a weaker performance from its international bank which is already struggling to generate a decent return on equity.           NatWest Group Q1 23 – 28/04 – when NatWest reported its full-year results back in February the shares were trading just below their highest levels since May 2018, as concerns over a sharp slowdown in the UK economy receded. The shares have retreated a touch since then touching 3-month lows in March, largely due to concerns over whether the strong performance seen in 2022 can be repeated in 2023, while the recent uncertainty around the European banking sector and the fallout over Credit Suisse didn't help. In Q4, profits rose to an impressive £1.26bn, a big increase on the £187m in Q3, taking full-year profits to £3.34bn, up from £2.95bn a year ago. Total impairments for the year rose to £337m, which given the uncertain outlook comes across as sensible financial contingency planning. The higher interest rate environment saw net interest margin increase from 2.99% in Q3 to 3.2% in Q4, bringing NIM year-to-date up to 2.85% from 2.30% a year ago. The bank proposed a final dividend of 10p as well as a share buyback program of £800m in the first half of 2023, taking the total amount paid to shareholders £5.1bn, or 53p per share, which is good news for the UK government which still holds a 48% stake in the bank. On the outlook, the bank was cautious with the bank saying it expects to generate full-year income of £14.8bn, and a full-year NIM of 3.2%, based on a base rate of 4%. The current base rate is already above this at 4.25% and could well go higher next month to 4.5%, potentially pushing NIM higher. Impairments are expected to remain in line with previous forecasts.   Read next: This week's calendar looks striking! US GDP, Bank of Japan rate decision, Sainsbury earnings and more| FXMAG.COM Microsoft Q3 23 – 25/04 – when Microsoft reported in Q2 their numbers were by and large positive despite some weak areas, however, the downbeat guidance initially saw the shares come under pressure as the penny started to drop that the next few quarters are likely to be challenging for even the most competitive businesses. Q2 revenues came in at $52.7bn, with cloud revenue rising 22% to $27.1bn, driven by growth in AI and Intelligent Cloud. Net income fell to $16.43bn from $18.77bn primarily due to a $1.2bn charge as a result of the decision to cut 10,000 jobs and revise its hardware line-up. On the downside, Personal Computing revenue fell 19% to $14.2bn, with OEM revenue falling 39%.  Since then, the shares have rebounded to just shy of the highs seen last August. Microsoft said the next few quarters were likely to see a further slowdown in growth, even in strong areas like Azure, and that new business was already becoming more difficult. They also said that existing customers were asking for its help to make cost savings around their existing services. Microsoft also said subscriptions were also likely to slow, and that revenues would remain flat in Q3, at between $50.5bn and $51.5bn, with further weakness in personal computing expected, at around $12bn, while being offset with continued strength in Azure. We may find out more detail about the challenges facing the Activision deal. Profits are expected to come in at $2.23c a share.

Concerns over the economic outlook weighed on European markets yesterday, with broad weakness in basic resources and the energy sector, which is being caused by weakness in iron ore and copper prices, after Chinese authorities warned over high prices. Oil prices also slid sharply, as weaker than expected US economic data sparked concerns over a slowdown in demand as sticky core inflation starts to weigh on the longer-term outlook, as well as consumer confidence. Financials also had a difficult day after Spanish bank Santander and UBS in Switzerland both set aside larger than expected provisions in their latest Q1 numbers. Santander pointed to concerns about the outlook for the mortgage market. While rising interest rates are good for net interest margins, the other side of that is the potential for higher borrower distress. US markets also had a disappointing session, with losses accelerating after European markets had closed, the Nasdaq 100 posting its worst session in over a month, while yields slid as money moved into the traditional haven plays of government bonds, and the US dollar. The worst performer on the S&P500 was First Republic Bank after reporting that deposits had fallen by $72bn in Q1, raising concerns over its long-term viability as an institution, as it looks to restructure its business, which in turn weighed on the wider banking sector. Microsoft and Alphabet closed below-the-line, results were published after the session Both Microsoft and Alphabet also finished the session lower ahead of their results which were released after the bell. The numbers for both came in ahead of expectations, giving a lift to US markets, and the share prices of both after hours, although it's unlikely to be enough to prompt an uplift for European markets which are expected to open lower later this morning, after yesterday's weak US finish. Microsoft reported Q3 revenues of $52.9bn, above estimates of $51bn, with commercial cloud revenue coming in at $28.5bn. Profits also came in ahead of expectations at $18.3bn or $2.45c a share. All business areas beat expectations, intelligent cloud revenue came in at $22.1bn, a rise of 16%, and subscription products revenues rose 11% to $17.5bn. Personal computing revenue was the only area of decline, falling 9% to $13.3bn, it still comfortably came in above consensus, although Windows OEM and devices revenue saw a sharp decrease of 28% and 30% respectively.   Google owner Alphabet also reported a solid set of Q1 results, driven by an uptick in advertising and increased demand for its cloud services. Total revenues of $69.8bn, and profits of $15.05bn, a modest decline from the same quarter last year, but above forecasts of $1.07c at $1.17c a share. Cloud services saw an increase in revenue to $7.45bn, which helped offset modest declines in advertising and YouTube revenues. YouTube revenue fell 2.6% to $6.69bn, while advertising came in at $54.55bn. Read next: Euro against US dollar: On Wednesday, we should be wary of the preliminary estimate of the US first-quarter GDP, expected to come at an annualised rate of 2.0%| FXMAG.COM The company also announced a $70bn share buyback, while also announcing it was taking a $2bn charge in respect of severance costs for the 12,000 job losses reported earlier this year, as well as another $564bn on top in relation to reduced office space. Attention will now shift towards today's numbers from Facebook owner Meta Platforms after their more than 70% share price rebound so far year to date. Forex EUR/USD – failed just shy of the previous peaks at 1.1075 yesterday, slipping back below 1.1000, raising the prospect of a return to the 1.0940 area. Below 1.0940 retargets the 1.0870 level. A push up through the previous peaks at 1.1075 opens up the 1.1120 area. GBP/USD – failed at the 1.2500 area again, slipping back with support currently at the 1.2340 area. This needs to hold to keep the bias for a move towards 1.2630 intact, or risk a move towards 1.2270.  EUR/GBP – failed at the 0.8875 area yesterday, slipping back towards the 0.8830/40 area. Below 0.8820 targets trend line support from the August lows at 0.8770. A break above the 0.8870 area suggests a retest the March peaks of 0.8925. USD/JPY – remains under pressure while below the recent peaks at 135.20. Above 135.20 retargets the 200-day SMA at 137.00. Below 133.30 argues for a return to the 132.00 area. FTSE100 is expected to open 30 points lower at 7,861 DAX is expected to open 72 points lower at 15,800 CAC40 is expected to open 51 points lower at 7,480

Concerns about the economic outlook acted as a cloud over European markets yesterday as we saw a second successive daily decline, with profit taking in luxury and weakness in defensives acting as a wider drag. Basic resources which had been a weak point in the early part of the week saw a modest rebound but a sharp slide in oil prices below OPEC+ production cut announcement levels at the beginning of the month spoke to a wider concern that demand could well slide further over the coming months.  US markets underwent a broadly negative session as well on concerns that uncertainty in the regional banking sector might spread, as well as tightening lending conditions, and ergo slow the US economy. There are also some concerns that the loss of confidence in the future of First Republic Bank could prove contagious, although a sharp rebound in PacWest Bancorp's shares on an improvement in its deposit base suggests that any fallout might be contained. US indices - Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Nonetheless while the Dow and S&P500 finished lower the Nasdaq 100 got a boost from Microsoft which helped to drag the index into the green. Tech seems to be acting as somewhat of a haven trade with Facebook owner Meta Platforms set to offer a further boost after reporting better than expected Q1 revenues and profits as well as an upgrade to Q2 guidance. Q1 revenues came in at $28.1bn, a rise of 3% and easily beating expectations of $26.76bn, while profits came in at $2.20c a share, or $5.71bn, a fall of 24% but also above expectations. Costs and expenses rose by 10% to $21.4bn. On the more positive side Q2 revenue guidance was adjusted higher to between $29.5bn to $32bn, while full year operating expenses are now expected to come in between $86-$90bn, a decline of $5bn, and a sum that includes $3bn to $5bn in restructuring costs. The Reality Labs segment or Metaverse continued to bleed cash, losing just shy of $4bn as revenues fell to $339m. While tech earnings continue to beat expectations, the broader market has continued to underperform, and today's European open looks set to be a negative one with today's focus shifting to Amazon's numbers after the bell and the US Q1 GDP numbers. Read next: Cryptocurrency payments are steadily increasing, particularly as the DeFi market rebounds from the ‘crypto winter’| FXMAG.COM Having seen the US consumer recover strongly in January with a retail sales surge of 3.2%, the edge has come off a little in recent months as consumer spending slowed in February and March, by -0.2% and -1% respectively. The instability caused by the banking turmoil will also have affected economic output at the end of the quarter, although we probably won't know the full extent of that until we get later revisions during May. The strong labour market and resilience in wage growth seen in the first part of the quarter are likely to offer a strong personal consumption component. Expectations are for the US economy to slow slightly from 2.6% in Q4 to 2%, while personal consumption is expected to rebound strongly from the 1% seen in Q4. Weekly jobless claims are expected to come in at 248k, up slightly from 245k, with continuing claims set to post another 52-week high of 1,868k. Forex EUR/USD – made a fresh one year high of 1.1095 yesterday before slipping back. A move through 1.1120 is needed to signal further gains. Below 1.0940 retargets the 1.0870 level. GBP/USD – popped up to 1.2516 before slipping back again. Support remains at the 1.2340 area. This needs to hold to keep the bias for a move towards 1.2630 intact or risk a move towards 1.2270.  EUR/GBP – failed at the 0.8875 area for the second day in a row, slipping back towards the 0.8830/40 area. Below 0.8820 targets trend line support from the August lows at 0.8770. A break above the 0.8870 area suggests a retest the March peaks of 0.8925. USD/JPY – remains under pressure, slipping to the 133.00 area yesterday. While below the recent peaks at 135.20 bias remains for a move towards 132.00. Above 135.20 retargets the 200-day SMA at 137.00. FTSE100 is expected to open 25 points lower at 7,827 DAX is expected to open 32 points lower at 15,762 CAC40 is expected to open 26 points lower at 7,440

Summary:  The selloff in regional bank shares weight on the market sentiment, seeing U.S. equities lower driven by weaknesses in financials, communication services, and energy. Euro took a brief look below 1.10 before recovering to 1.1020 subsequently after ECB downshifted to a 25bps rate hike. Apple bucked the challenging economic and industry environment with a solid beat in FYQ2 top lines and earnings on strong iPhone performance. Today’s focus will be on the U.S. employment report.   What’s happening in markets? US equities (US500.I and USNAS100.I): regional bank woes weigh on market sentiment Shares of regional banks continued to sell off with SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE:arcx) losing as much as 9.5% in the morning before clawing back some and finishing down 5.5%. PacWest Bancorp (PACW:xnas) plummeted 50.6% followed by Western Alliance (WAL:xnys) tumbling 38.4% and First Horizon (FHN:xnys) shedding 33.6%. Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD:xtse) called off its merger discussion with First Horizon due to doubts on getting regulatory approval. The selloff in regional banks weigh on the broader U.S. banking sector, seeing all 21 members of the KBW Bank Index, which includes the largest banks, in the red and the index declined by 3.8%. The S&P 500 shed 0.7%, driven by losses in financials, communication services, and energy. Nasdaq 100 slid 0.4%. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD:xnas) surged 6.1% on the headline that the chipmaker is working with Microsoft (MSFT:xnas) in its expansion into AI processors. Apple Inc (APPL:xnas) gained 2.5% on revenue and earnings beat. Treasuries (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas): the 2-10-year curve steepens to -41 The 2-year yield swung widely after rising to 3.89% on a smaller-than-expected increase in jobless claims and a much hotter-than-expected growth of 6.3% in Q1 unit labor costs, before falling to as low as 3.65%, the lowest level since September 2022 on the stress in regional bank stocks and then finally finished only 1bp lower at 3.79%. Buying was mostly on the front end and the 10-year yield rose 4bps to 3.38%, steepening the 2-10 curve by 5bps to -41.  SOFR 3-month interest rate contracts were well bid in the morning, with rates falling 30bps in the 2024 contracts before giving up some gains to finish 15bps lower in rate (higher in prices). The Dec 2024 SOFR (SR3Z4) last traded at 97.28 (i.e. 3-month interest rate at 2.72%). Chinese equities (HK50.I & 02846:xhkg): muted trading in A-shares and a moderate rally in Hang Sang Index Mainland China returned from the Labor Day holiday and had a muted response to a mixed bag of economic data. Similar to the official NBS manufacturing PMI released earlier, today’s Caixin China manufacturing PMI fell below the expansion-contraction threshold to 49.5. Trading in mainland A-shares was lacklustre and lacked directions, with CSI300 finishing the session nearly unchanged from last Friday before the long holiday. The Shanghai Composite Index advanced 0.8% while the Shenzhen Component Index declined -.57%. Read next: Expect the ECB to keep increasing rates at the short-term, at least until the summer| FXMAG.COM The travel and consumption data for the five days during the 5-day holiday period indicated a strong pick-up in consumption but tourism, lodging, and catering stocks retreated sharply in mainland bourses. A-share financial names gained, with Cofco Capital (002423:xsec) and China Minsheng (600016:xsec) hit 10% limit up. A number of central-government-owned names in the infrastructure construction, materials and media space surged. China financial names including insurance companies and banks listed in Hong Kong also outperformed notably, with Ping An Insurance (02318:xhkg) surging 7.7%, Citic (00267:xhkg) up 5.7%, China Life Insurance (02628:xhkg) up 5.2%, and ICBC (01398:xhkg) rising 5.1%. Hang Seng Index advanced 1.3%. Trading in technology names was relatively muted as Hang Seng Tech Index edged up 0.6%. FX: EUR underperforms despite Lagarde’s attempt to be hawkish EURUSD took a brief look below 1.10 on Thursday, although recovering to 1.1020 subsequently, after ECB downshifted to a 25bps rate hike. While the door for further tightening was kept open, market expectations turned dovish as ECB is likely to eventually follow the Fed and a peak is coming. GBPUSD, meanwhile, continued to make attempts at a break of 1.26. Regional banking concerns still remain top of mind and USDJPY plunged lower to 133.50 before a rebound to 134.20 subsequently. NZDUSD was the strongest, having broken above 100DMA at 0.6279 which opens the door to 0.64. Crude oil: steadier but closing another week down Crude oil steadied after a fierce three-day selloff sparked by concerns of dwindling demand as banking concerns continue to send shivers. Brent crude has shed over 10% this week as weak PMI data in China, combined with ongoing tightening of financial conditions weighed on sentiment. Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco also lowered its official selling prices to Asian customers. WTI prices stayed below $70/barrel while Brent stayed below $74. Supply side is less of a focus for now. Russia reaffirmed its commitment to cut crude oil production amid signs of robust exports. However, supply concerns were offset by additional 1 billion barrel crude oil discovery onshore Turkey   What to consider?   Apple's Q2 FY23 results beat in revenues and earnings Apple Inc. (AAPL:xnas) delivered Q2FY23 results beating analyst estimates, driven by stronger-than-expected performance in iPhone sales. Revenues came in at USD94.8 billion, above the consensus estimate USD92.6 billion. The EPS of USD1.52 beat the USD1.43 median forecast surveyed by Bloomberg. Apple repurchased USD22 billion worth of shares in Q2FY23 and announced a plan to add USD90 billion to the existing buyback program as the company generated stronger-than-expected USD25.6 billion free cash flow during the quarter. Apple raised the quarterly dividend to USD0.24 from USD0.23. Caixin China manufacturing PMI fell into the contraction territory Caixin China manufacturing PMI, which has a larger focus than the official NBS manufacturing PMI on export-oriented small and medium size enterprises in coastal China declined to 49.5 in April from 50.0 in March, back to the contraction territory. New orders, falling below 50, drove the deceleration in the headline PMI as demand weakened. Nonetheless, according to Caixin, the expectation about the future has improved from the level in March. ECB hikes by 25bps, keeps hawkish message As widely expected, the ECB stepped down to a 25bps rate hike pace from the 50bps unveiled in March, bringing the deposit rate to 3.25%. While recent data has confirmed that underlying inflationary pressures remain sticky, especially for core, weak credit growth and the latest results of the Bank Lending Survey have indicated that the rate hikes so far are clearly leaving some stress on the financial sector of the economy. The ECB also announced that the reinvestments of its Asset Purchase Programme (APP) will be stopped in July, which could equal to a €25bn reduction of the portfolio on average every month as per their own estimates. However, it was later revealed as a deal between the hawks and doves to go ahead with the 25bp hike instead of 50bps. Lagarde emphasised at the press conference that “the inflation outlook continues to be too high for too long”, keeping the door open for further rate hikes. US non-farm payrolls due today – will the cooling in labor market be enough While the job openings cooled and jobless claims in the US rose to 242k last week from 229k previously, the ADP survey on the other hand showed additions in jobs blowing past estimates. This suggests US labor market indicators have been mixed so far, and focus will be on the April nonfarm payroll which is scheduled for release today. Hiring pace is expected to slow, and Bloomberg consensus forecast is looking for it to come in at 185K in April from 236K in March, as layoffs extend from IT sector to banking and others, even as services sector continue to hire. Unemployment rate is also seen marginally higher at 3.6% from 3.5% previously, but wage pressures will likely still remain firm 4.2% YoY/0.3% MoM. The jobs report will be used to gauge the Fed's next move, whether that be a pause, or lead to some "additional policy firming", but it is worth stressing there is plenty of data between now and the June 14 FOMC, with what happens in the banking sector being more key at the moment.     For a detailed look at what to watch in markets this week – read or watch our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast. Source: Global Market Quick Take: Asia – May 5, 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

After a difficult previous year marked by market volatility and economic difficulties, the US stock market has experienced a strong recovery since the start of the new year. This recovery was driven by several key factors: the resilience of the technology sector, growth in the semiconductor industry driven by the development of AI, the expected pause in Fed rate hikes and the assessment of future rate cuts in late 2023 amid lower inflation.    The technology sector, which includes leading companies in innovation and digital transformation, has played a critical role in the market's resurgence. Industry giants such as Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet have achieved significant stock price gains as they continue to innovate and provide products and services that meet changing consumer demands. The development of artificial intelligence technology has been a major catalyst for growth in the technology sector.   The semiconductor sector has also been one of the growth drivers of the markets. Companies such as Nvidia and AMD are experiencing strong demand for their advanced chipsets, which are vital for AI applications. The widespread adoption of AI technology across sectors has made semiconductor companies key drivers of innovation, contributing to their stock prices and overall market recovery.   The market was also supported by the expected decision of the Fed to pause its rate hikes. This pause in monetary policy tightening has helped to maintain the thesis of an end to the tightening cycle as early as H2 2023. 

Softer-than-expected UK inflation sends Cable below 1.30    The rally in US stocks extended on the back of good bank earnings and AI. BoFA and Morgan Stanley joined the club of big banks beating analyst expectations. BoFA's fixed income and equity trading posted a surprise gain and covered a slight miss on its net interest income, while Morgan Stanley's wealth management came to the rescue. Charles Swab on the other hand reported 7% deposit outflows but its shares surged 13%, yes 13% yesterday on expectation of deposit growth by year-end.    Then, Microsoft jumped up to 6% to a fresh all-time-high yesterday as progress on the regulatory front regarding the acquisition of Activision Blizzard, and the news that its Microsoft 365 Copilot, based on OpenAI's artificial intelligence, will be broadly available and cost $30 per month per user got investors rushing back to the stock and extend the November-to-date rally to 72%! Microsoft's AI bet has been disruptive this year, and the company is making huge progress in turning the buzz into profit as quickly as possible, and they have a great chance of success. Microsoft's AI will be a perfect assistant for $30 per month and Microsoft will cash in – and the weak dollar outlook could further help boost revenue.   Zooming out, the bank and AI rally pushed both the S&P500 and Nasdaq 100 to fresh highs since the first months of 2022. Nasdaq 100 is now in the overbought territory, the technical indicators call for correction, and the upcoming modification in the Magnificent Seven's weightings in the index should pull the valuation down, but the positive trend's strength remains impressive, and supported by both better-than-expected earnings, and economic data.   On the data front, the softer-than-expected retail sales and production data from the US came to soften the Federal Reserve (Fed) hawks' hands yesterday, and kept the US yields downbeat, which also helped boost stock valuations in parallel to earnings.   Today, Goldman Sachs will try to beat the expectations that it threw under a bus over the past few weeks, so that the stock price could get away despite a worst quarter in years, Netflix will reveal how well its password sharing ban ramped up subscriptions and Tesla will reveal how much money the company earned by selling a record number of cars at discounted prices to increase market share. There is potential for good surprises for both, but expectations for Netflix and Tesla are strong, so they will certainly be harder to beat than the banks – which had rather soft expectations walking into this earnings season.   Yet Goldman didn't only dampened expectations regarding its results but also lowered its recession odds from 25% to 20%. A latest survey of economists on Wall Street Journal also revealed that the probability of a downturn fell from 61% to 54% for the US. Weakening recession odds is good news for energy investors, and it keeps demand in oil upbeat. The barrel of US crude is back above the $75pb level this morning despite a smaller decline reported by the API report this week on US inventories compared to what was penciled in by analysts. But we need some good news from China for energy and mining assets to encourage some persistent rotation from AI, because AI just keeps on giving.    By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank  

Microsoft Q4 23 – 26/07   has seen strong gains so far this year the company is widely tipped to become the next $3trn company after Apple set the bar earlier this year.    The catalyst for these continued gains is set to be AI, with the shares building on the gains that we have seen in the wake of their Q3 numbers and disappointment over the knockbacks being faced with respect to its Activision Blizzard deal, which has been rejected by UK regulators and is currently going through the US courts. Microsoft reported Q3 revenues of $52.9bn, above estimates of $51bn, with commercial cloud revenue coming in at $28.5bn. Profits also came in ahead of expectations at $18.3bn or $2.45c a share. All business areas beat expectations, intelligent cloud revenue came in at $22.1bn, a rise of 16%, and subscription products revenues rose 11% to $17.5bn.   Personal computing revenue was the only area of decline, falling 9% to $13.3bn, it still comfortably came in above consensus, although Windows OEM and devices revenue saw a sharp decrease of 28% and 30% respectively. What this tells us is that consumers and businesses have continued to feel the squeeze in terms of new hardware, but that the online business appears to be slowdown-proof for now. Q4 revenues are expected to come in at $55.45bn and profits of $2.56c a share. 

A week packed with earnings and central bank decisions Last week ended on a caution note after the first earnings from Big Tech companies were not bad, but not good enough to further boost an already impressive rally so far this year. The S&P500 closed the week just 0.7% higher, Nasdaq slipped 0.6%, while Dow Jones recorded its 10th straight week of gains, the longest in six years, hinting that the tech rally could be rotating toward other and more cyclical parts of the economy as well.   This week, the earnings season continues in full swing. 150 S&P500 companies are due to announce their second quarter earnings throughout this week. Among them we have Microsoft, which is pretty much the main responsible of this year's tech rally thanks to its ChatGPT, Meta, Alphabet, Visa, GM, Ford, Intel, Coca-Cola and some energy giants including Exxon Mobil and Chevron.   On the economic calendar, we have a busy agenda this week as well. Today, we will be watching a series of flash PMI figures to get a sense of how economies around the world felt so far in July, then important central bank meetings will hit the fan from tomorrow. The early data shows that both manufacturing and services in Australia remained in the contraction zone, as Japan's manufacturing PMI dropped to a 4-month low in July. German figures could also disappoint those watching the EZ numbers.   On the central banks front, the Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will meet this week, and the first two are expected to announce 25bp hike each to further tighten monetary conditions on both sides of the Atlantic.     Zooming into the Fed, activity on Fed funds futures gives almost 100% chance for this week's 25bp hike. But many think that this week's rate hike could be the last of this tightening cycle, as inflation is cooling. But the resilience of the US labour market, and household consumption will likely keep the Fed cautiously hawkish, and not announce the end of the tightening cycle this Wednesday. There is, on the contrary, a greater chance that we will hear Fed Chair Jerome Powell rectify the market expectations and talk about another rate hike in September or in November. Therefore, the risks tied to this week's FOMC meeting are tilted to the hawkish side, and we have more chance of hearing a hawkish surprise rather than a dovish one. Regarding the market reaction, as this week's Fed meetings falls in the middle of a jungle of earnings, stock investors will have a lot to price on their plate, so a hawkish statement from the Fed may not directly impact stock prices if earnings are good enough. Bond markets, however, will clearly be more vulnerable to another delay of the end of the tightening cycle. The US 2-year yield consolidates near the 4.85% level this morning, and risks are tilted to the upside. For the dollar, there is room for further recovery as the bearish dollar bets stand at the highest levels on record and a sufficiently hawkish Fed announcement could lead to correction and repositioning.  Elsewhere, another 25bp hike from the ECB is also seen as a done deal by most investors. What investors want to know is what will happen beyond this week's meeting. So far, at least 2 more 25bp hikes were seen as almost certain by investors. Then last week, some ECB officials cast doubt on that expectation. Now, a September rate hike in the EZ is all but certain. The EURUSD remains under selling pressure near the 1.1120 this morning, the inconclusive Spanish election is adding an extra pressure to the downside.   Finally, the BoJ is expected to do nothing, again, this week. Japanese policymakers will likely keep the policy rate steady in the negative territory and the YCC policy unchanged. The recent U-turn in BoJ expectations, and the broad-based rebound in the US dollar pushed the USDJPY above the 140 again last Friday, and there is nothing to prevent the pair from re-testing the 145 resistance if the Fed is sufficiently hawkish and the BoJ is sufficiently dovish.     By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank  

USD/JPY  Yen dives on reports BOJ sees little need to adjust YCC   Central bank-a-palooza was supposed to start next week, but traders got a head start after reports surfaced that the BOJ saw little urgency to adjust their yield curve control program (YCC).  It looks like FX traders are expecting the BOJ to maintain their ultra-loose monetary policy and for the Fed to deliver a quarter-point rate rise and to have a wait-and-see approach about the September meeting.  The Japanese yen is the weakest major currency and that could remain the case if risk appetite remains healthy.  It seems that while the BOJ stands pat, the other major central banks are tightening and that should continue to drive that interest rate differential trade. Soft landing hopes are not getting derailed by earnings season so far, in fact market breadth in the stock market continues to improve which could help keep the rally going strong.   Initial Rate Decision Expectations The Fed will raise rates by 25bps and likely signal a wait-and-see approach for the September meeting (saving that decision for the end of August at Jackson Hole). Analysts are unanimously expecting the ECB to raise all three key rates by 25bps but are unsure what will happen in September The BOJ is expected to keep rates steady, no change to YCC, and revise up its inflation forecasts for this year alone.     Soft stochastics suggest euro pullback       The EUR/USD weekly chart shows a bearish bias could be emerging as the slow stochastics overbought conditions is seeing a tentative drop below the 200-week SMA.  If bearish momentum accelerates key support will come from the 1.1080 level, with major support eyeing the heavily tested 1.1030 price level.  Intraday resistance resides at the 1.1150 level, with major resistance be provided by the psychological 1.1200 handle.   Nasdaq Friday Volatility The Nasdaq could see excessive volatility at the close as a special rebalancing will address overconcentration in the index by redistributing the weights.  In addition to this special rebalancing, traders will have to deal with options expiration. Three mega-cap tech giants (Apple, Nvidia and Microsoft) make up almost 30% of the weight in the fund, which is not diverse enough for a key index.  Some profit-taking might occur ahead of busy next week that contains handful of market moving events that include three big rate decision, several key earnings, and key GDP, ECI , and PCE data.  

Prior underperforming US banks rallied last week where the SPDR Banks ETF rose by 6.76%, its best weekly gain seen in 14 months. The high growth technology concentrated Nasdaq 100, the top year-to-date performer, underperformed last week, dragged down by Tesla and Netflix ex-post earnings releases. Extreme positioning, and complacency bias in Nasdaq 100 increase the risk of a medium-term bearish reversal in technology stocks.   In the past two weeks, we have seen the latest Q2 earnings releases of the major US banks; JP Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and one of the high-flying technology-related “Magnificent Seven”, Tesla as well as a Netflix. All the major banks beat earnings expectations except Goldman Sachs, but its disappointing earnings had been well-telegraphed by senior management in public speeches ahead of its result release. Both Tesla and Netflix have managed to beat their bottom lines too. Interestingly, their respective share price performances ex-post earnings releases move in opposite directions as compared with the US banks. Based on last week’s performance for the week ended 21 July, all the major US banks recorded positive returns; JP Morgan (+3.46%), Bank of America (+9.86%), Wells Fargo (+5.51%), Citigroup (+2.84%), Goldman Sachs (+7.90%), Morgan Stanley (+9.59%) which in turn managed to have a positive spill-over effect to the broader US banking sector where the SPDR S&P Bank exchange-traded fund (ETF) recorded a weekly gain of +6.76% over the same period, its best return since the week of 23 May 2022. In contrast, Tesla, and Netflix posted dismal weekly returns of -7.59% and -3.26% respectively as of the end of last Friday, 21 July which in turn triggered a negative feedback loop into the high growth, and technology-related broader stock indices; Nasdaq 100 (-0.90%) and iShares Semiconductor ETF (-1.44%).   & positioning were significant contributors to Nasdaq 100 & US technology stocks’ underperformance The main catalysts that contributed to the last week’s negative returns and underperformance of Nasdaq 100 and iShares Semiconductor ETF have been FOMO (“fear of missing out”), complacency, and extreme positioning based on a relative basis. The Nasdaq 100 is the top-performing major stock index so far globally with a year-to-date gain of +41% as of 21 July versus a loss of -10.8% seen in the SPDR Banking ETF over the same period. Thus, technology-related equities and the Nasdaq 100 have attracted momentum chasers, especially for fund managers or market participants who missed the earlier run-up since March 2023 and the need to beat benchmark stock indices. In addition, technology equities recorded an eight-week cumulative inflow of around US$15 billion that surpassed their cumulative peaks inflows of 2022 according to a recent BofA Global Investment Strategy research report. Also, based on recency bias behavioral traits that extrapolate current year-to-date outperformance of Nasdaq 100 into the future, for the months ahead and even next year may have led to a higher level of complacency and extreme level of relative positioning.     US Technology stocks are at risk of further medium-term downside pressure & underperformance   Fig 1:  Relative performance of Nasdaq 100 & iShares Semiconductors over SPDR Banking, put/call ratio of Nasdaq 100 as of 21 Jul 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) The chart above plots the relative performance (ratio) of Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) over SPDR Banking ETF (KBE), and iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) over SPDR Banking ETF (KBE). Both the ratios QQQ over KBE and SOXX over KBE have reached fresh all-time levels in June 2023 and May 2023 respectively. In addition, these two ratios have hit more than two standard deviations above their respective 20-week moving averages which suggest relatively overstretched bullish positioning in the Nasdaq 100 and semiconductor stocks. The current reading seen in the options market indicates the bullish momentum of Nasdaq 100 is likely to persist as indicated by the put-call ratio of Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) which measures the number of traded put options divided by call options on the long side. A falling ratio indicates more calls are being bought versus puts which suggests market participants are not afraid of a falling market and have a bullish bias that prices may continue to rise, and if a negative event arises, it can easily reverse prices to the downside due to complacency of market participants. Vice versa for a rising put-call ratio. Since 15 May 2023, the put-call ratio of Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) has continued to decline and as of 17 July, it stood at 1.19 which is a nine-week low. Therefore, it will be a pivotal week ahead for Nasdaq 100 and the “Magnificent Seven” as market participants await the earnings results and guidance of Microsoft, Alphabet, Texas Instruments (out on Tuesday, 25 July), and Meta Platforms (out on Wednesday, 26 July).

US The Fed is expected to resume raising rates at the July 26th FOMC meeting.  Fed funds futures see a 96% chance that the central bank will deliver a quarter-point rate rise, bringin the  target range to between 5.25% and 5.50%, almost a 22-year high. The Fed delivered 10 straight rate increases and then paused at the June FOMC meeting.  The Fed is going to raise rates on Wednesday and seems poised to be noncommittal with what they will do in September.  The economic data has been mixed (strong labor data/cooling pricing pressures) and that should support Powell’s case that they still could deliver a soft landing, a slowdown that avoids a recession.  This seems like it will be the last rate hike in the Fed’s tightening cycle, but we will have two more inflation reports before the Fed will need to commit that more rate hikes are no longer necessary. The Fed will steal the spotlight but there are several other important economic indicators and earnings that could move markets.  Monday’s flash PMI report should show both the manufacturing and service sectors continue to soften, with services still remaining in expansion territory. Tuesday’s Conference Board’s consumer confidence report could fuel expectations of a soft landing. Thursday’s first look at Q2 GDP is expected to show growth cooled from 2.0% to 1.8% (0.9%-2.1% consensus range) as consumer spending moderated.  Friday contains the release of personal income and spending data alongside the Fed’s preferred inflation and wage gauges. The Q2 Employment Cost Index (ECI) is expected to dip from 1.2% to 1.1%. The personal consumption expenditures price index is expected to cool both on a monthly and annual basis (M/M: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior;Y/Y: 4.2%e v 4.6% prior). Earnings will be massive this week as we get updates from 3M, AbbVie, Alphabet, Airbus, AstraZeneca, AT&T, Barclays, BASF, Biogen, BNP Paribas, Boeing, Boston Scientific, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Chevron, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Comcast, Exxon, Ford Motor, General Electric, General Motors, GSK, Hermes International, Honeywell International, Intel, Mastercard, McDonald’s, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nestle, PG&E, Procter & Gamble, Raytheon Technologies, Samsung Electronics, STMicroelectronics, Texas Instruments, Thermo Fisher Scientific, UniCredit, Unilever, Union Pacific, Verizon Communications, Visa, and Volkswagen

Fed set to raise rates to a 22 year high   European markets have seen a cautiously positive start to the week, buoyed by hopes of further stimulus measures from Chinese authorities in the wake of recent poor economic data. The FTSE100 has been a key beneficiary of this, putting in a two-month high yesterday.   The modest improvement in sentiment has also been helped in some part by the recent retreat in short term yields which is being driven by the hope that central banks won't have to hike rates as aggressively as thought a few weeks ago. Both German and UK 2-year yields have fallen sharply from their highs this month on this basis, helped by inflation which appears to be slowing more quickly than expected.     US markets have also put together a strong run of gains with the Dow and S&P500 hitting their highest levels since April 2022, on the back of optimism that the start of this week's earnings numbers will live up to the high expectations place on them.   Last night's initial reaction to the numbers from Microsoft, and Google owner Alphabet would suggest that optimism might be justified against a backdrop of a still resilient US economy, and a Federal Reserve that looks set to be close to the end of its rate hiking cycle.           Today's expected 25bps Fed rate hike, after last month's pause, looks set to be the last rate rise this year, whatever Fed policymakers would have you believe.   We may hear officials try and make the case for at least one more between now and the end of the year but given recent trends around US inflation its quite likely that PPI will go negative in July.   While Powell will try and make the case for further rate hikes, his time would be better spent in making the case for rates remaining higher for longer, and projecting when the FOMC expected the 2% target to be met. Core prices remain too high even with headline CPI at 3%, and it is here that the Fed will likely focus its and the market's attention.     If headline CPI continues to fall in the way, it has been doing the Fed will struggle to convince the markets that it would continue hiking rates against such a backdrop.   As things stand markets are already pricing in the prospect that this will be the last rate rise in the current hiking cycle given recent declines in the US dollar and US yields. With the next Fed meeting coming in September the market will have to absorb two more inflation reports and two more jobs' reports. Nonetheless the Fed will be keen to prevent the market pricing in rate cuts which was one of the key challenges earlier this year.   With inflation slowing and the jobs market resilient the US economy is currently in a bit of a goldilocks moment. This will be the challenge for Powell today, as he tries to steer the market into believing that the Fed could hike rates some more. We also shouldn't forget that we will get fresh messaging at the end of August at the Jackson Hole annual symposium.     EUR/USD – retreated from the 1.1275 area which is 61.8% retracement of the 1.2350/0.9535 down move, with the next key support at the 1.0980 level.  Currently have resistance at the 1.1120 area.   GBP/USD – appears to have found a base at 1.2795/00, breaking a run of 7 daily losses. While above the 50-day SMA the uptrend from the March lows remains intact with the next resistance at the 1.3020 area.     EUR/GBP – last week's failure at the 0.8700 area has seen the euro slip back, with the risk that we could revisit the recent lows at 0.8500/10.   USD/JPY – the rebound from the 200-day SMA at 137.20, appears to have run out of steam at the 142.00 area, however the bias remains for a move lower while below the recent highs of 145.00.   FTSE100 is expected to open 10 points lower at 7,681   DAX is expected to open 25 points higher at 16,236   CAC40 is expected to open 35 points lower at 7,380  

Microsoft falls, Google jumps, Fed decides Surprise, surprise: Microsoft failed to meet investor expectations when it announced its Q2 results yesterday. Both revenue and earnings beat expectations, but the company reported a decelerating demand for its cloud computing services to 26%, and projected Azure to grow between 25%-26% for the current quarter. We are far from the 35% growth that we got used to in the good old days. Microsoft stock plunged up to 4% in the afterhours trading. Alphabet on the other hand a strong quarter for its search business advertisement, hinting that Google search withstood so far with the AI competition and its cloud business posted a 28% growth, more than Microsoft's. Google shares jumped 6% after the bell. Elsewhere, Snap tanked almost 20% as the overall sales declined and the forecasts remained short of analyst expectations, while GM lost 3.50% yesterday after raising its earnings forecast. But there is a catch: the forecast holds only if the workers don't go on a strike, and according to Evercore ISI, the chances of a strike is about 50-50. Today, Meta, Coca-Cola and Boeing will be among the big names that will report their earnings. The S&P500 advanced to the highest levels since April 2022, while Nasdaq 100 was up by 0.73% yesterday.    IMF raises global growth outlook  Zooming out, the IMF raised its outlook for the world economy this year and it now expects the global GDP to expand 3% in 2023. But it also warned that Germany will probably be the only G7 economy to suffer an economic contraction this year. Of course, the IMF also warned that there are some risks to their optimistic forecast, including the higher interest rates, the Chinese recovery that doesn't come, the debt distress and shocks from war and climate related disasters. But all in all, the US economy will likely end this year as the champion of soft landing – if all goes well.   I insist - if all goes well - because PacWest has been the latest US regional bank to succumb to this year's bank stress and its shares plunged 27% after Banc of California agreed to buy it.     Decision time!  Anyway, positiveness around the US economy is obviously giving some hawkish ideas to the Federal Reserve (Fed), which will likely announce another 25bp hike today, and warn that there could be more in the store. The US 2-year yield is in a wait-and-see more near the 4.90% level, either it will go back above the 5% with a hawkish Fed statement or it will retreat toward the 50-DMA, near the 4.65%, with a reasonably hawkish Fed statement, if the Fed opts for another 'skip' for example. The US dollar index pushes higher as expectations for other central banks soften due to the softer-than-expected economic data suggesting softer action from the likes of European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) in the coming months. The EURUSD continued its nosedive yesterday on IMF's less than ideal Germany outlook and the news that corporate loan demand plunged by the most on record in Q2, as higher rates started to bite European businesses.   Unfortunately, however, inflation expectations are getting stronger globally as the rising energy and crop prices hint that the upcoming inflation figures won't be a piece of cake. The barrel of US crude flirted with the $80pb level on Chinese stimulus hopes and the pricing of a soft landing, while wheat futures continue rising along with the escalating tensions in the Black Sea and Danube. Corn and soybean futures rise as well as hot weather in the US belt is adding to the positive pressure for corn.     By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank  

Oil Crude prices are rising after the IMF raised their World GDP forecast from 2.8% to 3%.  The outlook for global growth is the key for the crude demand outlook and right now it seems that might only get better as we get more stimulus out of China and as soft landing hopes grow for the US.  WTI crude will likely face key resistance from the $80 level, which means the recent rally might consolidate until we get beyond the FOMC decision. Gold Gold prices are wavering ahead of the FOMC decision, slightly higher on the day as the $1950 level provides key support.  Gold is going to wander around for the next 24 hours as nothing else really matters except the Fed.  Massive earnings might provide a key catalyst for risk-appetite, so bullion traders might want to pay attention to what happens to Microsoft and Alphabet earnings.

The global financial markets have witnessed significant turbulence in recent times, with a confluence of factors contributing to this uncertainty. As we delve into the intricate web of market dynamics, we'll explore the implications of events such as Lego's surprising decision to abandon oil-free bricks, China's gold buying spree affecting bullion pricing, and Morgan Stanley's prediction that the Federal Reserve has paused its interest rate hikes. These developments, among others, have sent shockwaves through various sectors, leaving investors and analysts grappling with what lies ahead.   A Rollercoaster Week for US Stocks The past week saw US stocks experiencing their most challenging period since March, triggered by the Federal Reserve's update. Both the S&P and Nasdaq indexes retreated by 2.9% and 3.6%, respectively. This downturn in the market was mirrored globally, with the MSCI World Index recording a 2.67% slide, its sharpest decline since March. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index also suffered a substantial setback, losing 2.3%, positioning it for a 3% loss in the third quarter. These declines have sent shockwaves through the investment world, raising concerns about the overall health of the global economy.   Bond Yields and the Fed's Stance One of the key indicators of this market turbulence is the surge in 10-year US yields, marking their most substantial weekly rise since July. Over the last ten weeks, yields have risen in eight, and 10-year real yields have surpassed 2%. Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zenter has stated that the Federal Reserve is likely done with its rate hikes for the time being. These developments have left investors wondering about the impact on various asset classes and the broader economic landscape.   Earnings Reports to Watch As we navigate these turbulent financial waters, several earnings reports are on the horizon. Companies such as Costco, Cintas, Micron Technology, Jefferies, Nike, Accenture, BlackBerry, and Carnival Corporation are set to release their financial results. These reports will shed light on the performance and outlook of various sectors, providing critical insights into market trends.   Paradigm Shift in Bullion The bullion market is experiencing a paradigm shift driven by Chinese gold buying. This shift is having a profound impact on the pricing and demand for gold. Understanding this shift is crucial for investors and central banks alike, as gold has historically been a safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainty.   Thailand's Tech Investment Expectations Thailand is gearing up for substantial investments from tech giants like Tesla, Google, and Microsoft, with expectations totaling $5 billion, according to the Prime Minister. This influx of tech investment could transform the country's tech landscape and create opportunities for growth in the Southeast Asian region.   Lego's Surprising Decision In a surprising turn of events, Lego has decided to abandon its efforts to produce oil-free bricks. This move has garnered attention due to the increasing focus on sustainability and environmental responsibility in the corporate world. The implications of this decision go beyond just the toy industry, as it reflects broader concerns about the use of fossil fuels.   The recent market turbulence, influenced by various global factors, highlights the interconnectedness of the financial landscape. As we navigate these uncertain waters, staying informed about developments such as central bank policies, corporate decisions, and geopolitical events becomes increasingly critical. Investors and financial analysts must remain vigilant and adapt to changing market conditions to make informed decisions in these challenging times.

The Finish Line By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank   Here we are, on the last trading day of the year. This year was completely different than what was expected. We were expecting the US to enter recession, but the US printed around 5% growth in the Q3. We were expecting the Chinese post-Covid reopening to boost the Chinese growth and fuel global inflation, but a year after the end of China's zero-Covid measures, China is suffocating due to an unexpected deflation and worsening property crisis. We were expecting last year's negative correlation between stocks and bonds to reverse – as recession would boost bond appetite but batter stocks. None happened.  The biggest takeaway of this year is the birth of ChatGPT which propelled AI right into the middle of our lives. Nasdaq 100 stocks close the year at an ATH, Nvidia – which was the biggest winner of this year's AI rally dwarfed everything that compared to it. Nvidia shares gained more than 350% this year. That's more than twice the performance of Bitcoin – which also had a good year mind you.   Besides Nvidia, ChatGPT's sugar daddy Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta, Google and Tesla – the so-called Magnificent 7 generated almost all of the S&P500 and Nasdaq100's returns this year. And thanks to this few handfuls of stocks, Nasdaq100 is set for its best year since 1999 following a $7 trillion surge.   The million-dollar question is what will happen next year. Of course, we don't know, nobody knows, and our crystal balls completely missed the AI rally that marked 2023, yet the general expectation is a cool down in the technology rally, and a rebalancing between the big tech stocks and the S&P493 on narrowing profit lead for the Magnificent 7 compared to the rest of the index in 2024. T  The other thing is, the S&P500's direction next year is unclear as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to start chopping the interest rates, with the first rate cut expected to happen as early as much with more than 85% probability. So what will the Fed cuts mean for the S&P500? Looking at what happened in the past, the S&P500 typically rises after the first rate cut, but the sustainability of the gains will depend on the underlying economic fundamentals. Lower rates are good for the S&P500 valuations EXCEPT when the economy enters recession within the next 12-months. So that backs the idea that I have been trying to convey here since weeks: lower US yields will be supportive of the S&P500 valuations as long as the economy remains strong, and earnings expectations hold up.    For now, they do. The S&P500 earnings will certainly end a bit better than flat this year, and the EPS is expected to rise by more than 10% next year. The Magnificent 7 are expected to post around 22% EPS growth next year. But note that, these expectations are mostly priced in, so yes, there will still be a hangover and a correction period after a relentless two-month rally triggered a broad-based risk euphoria among investors. The S&P500 is about to print its 9th consecutive week of gains – which would be its longest winning streak in 20 years.  In the FX, the US dollar index rebounded yesterday as treasury yields rose following a weak sale of 7-year notes. But the US dollar is still set for its worse year since 2020. Gold prepares to close the year near ATH, the EURUSD will likely reach the finish line above 1.10 and the USDJPY having tested but haven't been able to clear the 140 support. In the coming weeks, I would expect the EURUSD to ease on rising expectations from the ECB doves, and/or on the back of a retreat from the Fed doves. We could see a minor rebound in the USDJPY if the Japanese manage to calm down the BoJ hawks' ambitions. Overall, I wouldn't be surprised to see the US dollar recover against most majors in the first weeks of next year.  In the energy, crude oil remains downbeat. The barrel of American crude couldn't extend rally after breaking the $75pb earlier this week, and that failure to add on to the gains is now bringing the oil bears back to the market. The barrel of US crude sank below the $72pb as the US oil inventories slumped by more than 7mio barrels last week, much more than a 2-mio-barrel decline expected. The latter brought forward the demand concerns and washed out the supply worries due to the Red Sea tensions. Note that crude oil is set for its biggest yearly decline since 2020; OPEC's efforts to curb production and the rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remained surprisingly inefficient to boost appetite in oil this year. 

2023 key highlights & cross-assets performances in the past 2 years Fig 1: Cross assets performances as of 29 Dec 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)   The US Federal Reserve’s stance of keeping interest rates higher for a longer period in the first half of 2023 triggered a resilient US dollar environment in the absence of a recession scenario in the US that led the US stock market to outperform the rest of the world. The outperformance of the US stock market in 2023 was led by the Magnificent 7 (Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet/Google, Nvidia, Meta, Tesla) mega-cap technology stocks that have stronger balance sheets and are skewed toward “AI productivity” theme play. Also, these 7 stocks have a significant combined market-cap weightage in the Nasdaq 100 that recorded an annual gain of 54% in 2023 (2.3 times S&P 500’s 2023 returns). US regional banking crisis that led to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank & First Republic Bank due to poor balance sheet risk management reinforced by outsized mark-to-market losses on longer-term US Treasuries (higher US Treasury yields via Fed’s tightening monetary policy). It also indirectly led to the demise of Credit Suisse which eventually was brought over by rival UBS. The US regional banking crisis was just a blip, negated by a liquidity backstop orchestrated by the US Treasury; the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP). The risk-off behaviour in Q3 reversed abruptly in Q4 to a raging risk-on FOMO behaviour triggered by a significant easing liquidity condition in the US; the rapid drawdown of the Fed’s overnight reverse repo facility from a peak of US$2.55 trillion in December 2022 to US$683.25 billion (-74%) for the week of 11 Dec 2023 as money market funds that choose to invest their surplus cash in short-term US Treasury bills instead (rather than parking in overnight reverse repos facility) which in turn helped to fund the US Treasury general account (also US Treasury’s issuance switch from longer-term Treasuries to T-bills for funding needs). A rise in the expectations of a Fed’s dovish pivot where the first Fed funds rate cut is priced in to come as early in March 2024 indicated by the CME FedWatch tool that led to a slide of 120 basis points (bps) in the US 10-year Treasury yield from a 16-year high of 5% printed on 23 October 2023, synchronized with a weakening US dollar that kickstarted a rally in almost all asset classes (equities, bonds, gold, cryptocurrencies) except oil & China-related risk assets. China’s post-Covid re-opening bullish theme play on China and Hong Kong stock markets fizzled out after Q1 due to a heightened deflationary risk spiral caused by a persistent weak property market in China. The Hang Seng Index ended 2023 with a fourth consecutive annual loss of -14% (prior years’ losses of -15% in 2022, -14% in 2021 & -3% in 2020); its worst performance streak since 2000. Due to China’s structural weakness (deflationary risk spiral), China, and Hong Kong stock markets failed to respond to the cyclical upswing in risk assets during Q4 2023 reinforced by renewed US dollar weakness. The CSI 300 and Hang Seng Index recorded losses of -7% and -4.3% respectively in Q4 whereas the MSCI Emerging Markets Ex China exchange-traded fund gained by +12.5% over the same period, slightly outperformed the US S&P 500’s Q4 return of +11.24% The Japanese yen (JPY) plummeted to a 33-year low against the US dollar in Q3 2023 due to the Bank of Japan (BoJ)’s newly appointed Governor Ueda’s reluctance to offer firm guidance to normalize its short-term negative interest rate policy despite Japan’s core inflation rate had exceeded BoJ’s 2% target for the 20th consecutive month. Emerging themes for 2024 A potentially weaker US dollar due to the shrinkage of the US Treasury yield spread premium against the rest of the world, and a potential major JPY strength revival triggered by internal economic factors (service prices in Tokyo rose at their fastest pace since 1994 to a record gain of 3% y/y in November 2023, indicating an increase in the odds of sustainable wage-driven inflationary growth), political and business groups’ mounting pressures against a weaker JPY. The rest of the world equities may outperform the US stock market due to a weaker US dollar environment. Keep a lookout on China for potentially more “generous” fiscal and monetary policy stimulus measures that may stoke positive animal spirits in the short to medium term for China and Hong Kong stock markets. The stepped-up dovish expectations on the upcoming Fed’s interest rate cut cycle compiled with rosy earnings forecasts by analysts polled by FactSet that are projecting an earnings growth of +11.5% y/y for the US S&P 500 in CY 2024, a significant improvement from an expected CY 2023 earnings growth of just 0.6% which in turn have indicated another year of goldilocks scenario for the US economy. In contrast, the hastened speed of 6 interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2024 projected by market participants in the interest rates futures market also implied a probable US recession-liked scenario in 2024. In addition, the latest November 2023 data of the Conference Board US Leading Economic Index (LEI) has continued to flash a recession signal reinforced by weakness in the housing and labour market. If a recession hits the US economy in the second half of 2024, earnings downgrades are likely to materialize and the initial projected S&P 500 CY 2024 earnings growth rate of +11.5% is likely to be tapered to the downside which in turn may trigger a risk-off scenario that can overshadow the initial positive feedback loop from easing liquidity conditions. Potential heightened geopolitical tension between the US and China that may also spark a risk-off scenario in the latter part of 2024; the recently concluded China’s annual economic work plan conference attended by the top leadership stated that 2024 top priority will be on building a modern industrial system with a focus on developing cutting-edge technologies and artificial intelligence. Making high-tech industrialization a key priority in 2024 is likely to invite more scrutinization from neo-conservative US politicians that may put a strain on the current US-China relationship in the run-up to the November 2024 US presidential election. There is likely to be intense debate among the presidential candidates and finger-pointing again at China’s current industrialization policy that needs to be “neutralized” due to its potential national security threat to the US. Chart Of The Year – a potential major top in USD/JPY Fig 2: USD/JPY major trend as of 2 Jan 2024 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) The price actions of USD/JPY have declined by 8% to hit an intraday low of 140.25 in December 2023 after a bearish reaction from its 151.95 long-term pivotal resistance printed in mid-November 2023. The USD/JPY has traced out a potential impending major bearish reversal “Double Top” configuration considering the developments of its price actions from October 2022 to November 2023. In addition, the weekly MACD trend indicator has flashed out a bearish divergence condition over the same period (October 2022 to November 2023) which indicates the major uptrend phase from the March 2020 low of 101.18 has started to lose upside momentum which in turn increases the odds of a multi-month corrective decline to unfold next. A breakdown with a weekly close below 137.65 support exposes the next major support zone of 130.70/127.10 (also the neckline of the “Double Top” & 50% Fibonacci retracement of the prior major uptrend phase from March 2020 low to November 2023 high). On the other hand, a clearance above 151.95 invalidates the bearish scenario to see the next major resistance coming in at 159.30 in the first step.  

  When do you start to worry about Chinese stimulus?  By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank  The stock rally continued on both sides of the Atlantic on Wednesday; the technology and chip stocks remained in the driver seat. Sentiment in Europe was bolstered by an almost 9% rally in ASML on news that their orders more than tripled last quarter. Now, there is a catch. A third of the $10 billion dollar worth of orders came from China as Chinese companies rushed to buy these machines by the end of last year before the US and Dutch chip ban came into effect. But even if the Chinese demand will fade away, ASML says that it expects its sales to remain steady thanks to AI demand..  As such, the ASML news also boosted the stock prices of our favourite AI plays. Nvidia hit another record yesterday, TSM extended gains, Microsoft was worth $3 trillion for some time. The S&P500 and Nasdaq 100 hit a fresh record, and Netflix – which has nothing to do with AI, but which was just cheering its 13-mio new subscribers for the latest quarter - jumped 10%.   In summary, all goes well for those who are in the technology boat sailing north. For the rest, skepticism best describes how they feel about an unsustainable rise in valuations.   Tesla misses, Intel next.  Tesla missed estimates in its latest quarterly earnings report and warned that its EV sales growth will be 'notably lower' and that the numbers will suffer until the company comes up with a cheaper model. The series of price cuts weren't enough to bolster demand in a way to keep the company smiling and profits rising – sufficiently. As such, Tesla refused to offer a specific growth target and its share price took a 6% hit in the afterhours trading. Intel is due to report its earnings today.   Connecting the dots  The Chinese are serious about bolstering their economy and they look like they are getting to a place where they are ready to do whatever it takes to reverse the slowing trend.  In addition to a series of market stimulus news, the People' Bank of China (PBoC) announced yesterday that it will cut the reserve ratio for the banks by 50bp from February to release more liquidity to bolster stock valuations The latter will free up to an additional trillion yuan, which equals $139bn US dollars.  Will it help? Well, we will see. The good news is, if it doesn't, the Chinese will continue until it does.   The CSI 300 finally sees some positive reaction, stocks in Hong Kong are up 10% since Monday, American crude is drilling above the $75pb per barrel and copper futures – which are a gauge of global growth – also seem gently convinced that the Chinese will put all their weight – all they need to – to make things better.   But note that China's supportive policies may not echo well across the developed markets' central banks, because the Chinese stimulus – if successful – should boost global inflation and interfere with DM central banks' plans to loosen policies.   BoC calls the end of tightening, ECB next to speak.  But until we see concrete results from Chinese measures, softer policies remain the base-case scenario for the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the other major central banks (except Japan). In this context, the Bank of Canada (BoC) kept its rates unchanged at yesterday's meeting and called the end of rate hikes. The European Central Bank (ECB) will meet today and will certainly vehicle the same message - that policy tightening is over. But that's not enough.  When it comes to the ECB, what investors want to know is WHEN the ECB will start cutting the inteerest rates. If we had this conversation two weeks ago, I would say that the ECB would push back on expectations of premature rate cuts. But after having heard Christine Lagarde say that the first rate cut could come in summer, I am more balanced going into the meeting. Inflation has come lower – but we saw an uptick in the latest figures. The rising shipping costs and the positive pressure in oil prices mean that upside risks prevail. Yet the slowdown in European economies calls for lower rates. Released yesterday, the Eurozone PMI figures showed that aggregate activity remained in the contraction zone for the 8th straight month and slow down accelerated in January – except for manufacturing.   A hedge fund called Qube apparently built a $1 bn short position against German stocks, and Goldman Sachs says that a Trump presidency would increase risks for European businesses, and economically sensitive pockets of the market, like the German industries, would be the most exposed.