matic

Crypto Prices: On Tuesday Bitcoin (BTC) Added 1.9%, Ether (ETH) Gained 2.5%, Solana (SOL) Increased By 6.7%

Alex Kuptsikevich 02.03.2022 08:44

In the middle of Tuesday, the first cryptocurrency was approaching $45K, but then fell slightly during the American session along with stock indices. BTC showed resilience despite the decline in other risky assets and the growth of the dollar. World markets were declining following the banking sector, which felt the severity of Russia's partial disconnection from Swift (by 80%). However, this situation does little harm to the demand for cryptocurrencies. On the Binance exchange, the volume of trading in ruble pairs with BTC and USDT has increased significantly. Crypto funds recorded $36 million in net asset inflows during the week, up from $239 million over the past five weeks, according to CoinShares. Institutions are also looking for alternative vehicles amid mounting military tensions and government capital controls. According to Glassnode, crypto whales have been aggressively buying bitcoin over the past few weeks, which could signal a local bottom has been reached. The last time such a situation was observed was in May last year, when, after a two-month consolidation, the market resumed growth at the end of July. Technically, Bitcoin started March with growth. Thus, BTC has risen in price by 1.9% over the day to $44,100. Ethereum has grown by 2.5%, approaching $3,000. Other leading altcoins from the top ten add with maximum momentum such as Solana (+6.7%) and Terra (+5.2%) The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, grew by 2% over the day, to $1.94 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index is hovering around 43%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index added another point to 52 moving into neutral territory.

Speaking Of Rallying Chinese Stocks, Quite Unchanged Bitcoin Price, BoE, Fed And Central Bank Of Turkey Interest Rates Decisions

Getting Rid Of Russian Commodities Affects And Will Affect Markets

Alex Kuptsikevich 02.03.2022 10:04

Brent crude prices have jumped 13% since the start of the week, trading above $110 a barrel at the time of writing. These are the highest levels since July 2014. Meanwhile, the ruble continues to retreat against the dollar and euro. USDRUB is now trading at 106.40 (+5.5%) on the Moscow Exchange, and EURRUB is above 118 (+5%). In both cases, rates are approaching the highs set at the start of trading on Monday. As would be expected, the announced support measures from the Central Bank are softening the fall but not reversing it. The one-way movement in oil prices is since buyers in Europe are increasingly refusing to buy Russian oil, trying to find a replacement for it. This shift in priorities is visible in the sharp widening of the spread between Urals and Brent. Historically, and without various restrictions, the spread between these grades is $2-3 in favour of the lighter Brent. Now it is more than $17 as buyers are not chartering new shipments. Canada is refusing to buy Russian oil, and the UK (which is much more dependent on energy imports) is considering options for sanctions against the industry. The European Parliament has passed a resolution calling for EU oil and gas imports restrictions. Thus, Russia has failed to fully benefit from higher prices, losing both in sales volumes and facing an actual fall in selling prices. The potential for already announced measures destabilises the market, setting Russia up to start using energy or agricultural products as a retaliatory measure. While it is hard to imagine the world without Russian energy in the coming months - it will be as chaotic as the oil crisis in 1973, with the oil price soaring fourfold in six months of the embargo. We may see a smaller price jump but with much wider economic consequences. It is ironic that Europe and Western countries, in general, were helped by the Soviet Union. Now consumers are left to rely on the Middle East and its reserves. Yesterday, Biden announced an agreed sale of 60m barrels to 30 countries. Still, the market reaction to these announcements indicates that the market was expecting more, and the announced volumes are not enough. It is hard to say the theoretical limit to oil's rise. The Brent price could surpass the 2012 highs of $128 in a matter of days or aim for a historical record of $147.

Rise Of Natural Gas Price (Dutch TTF) Is Incredible

Alex Kuptsikevich 02.03.2022 15:44

The energy market is very sensitive to fluctuations in supply and demand. For example, a 20% drop in demand in March-May 2020 took away 70% of the oil price at some point. Next, we saw the inverse relationship: a moderate production deficit (even with significant reserves in previous months) was enough to send oil prices to 8-year highs. The same applies to exchange prices for gas. At some point last year, they were approaching $2000 per 1,000 cubic meters, quickly falling back to 800. Today, its value exceeds $2200, and this is hardly the limit. With such sensitive energy prices, it is difficult to imagine a reliable model of how much prices can rise at a critical moment because Russia provides about 20% of oil supplies and 30% of gas to Europe. If we see a political decision (by the EU & US or Russia) or a business decision (if foreign partners refuse to buy energy from Russian companies due to the threat of sanctions), then we may see a complete cessation of oil and gas purchases and prices may repeatedly skyrocket, as was the case in 1973 with the OPEC oil embargo. However, under these conditions, a grey market will emerge, as in the case of Iran, which sold its oil at a deep discount to Asia, mostly to China. It is more likely that the West is set to phase out Russian energy, indirectly holding back investment in the industry and blocking access to technology. As a result, this will lead to a reduction in the share of the Russian Federation on the world stage. The current situation is accelerating long-term plans to redirect energy exports from Europe to China. However, these are projects that will begin to pay dividends only in a few years. Here and now, politics could turn into a price shock on a much larger scale than we have seen in the last 30 years. The scale of the current state of affairs is comparable to that of the 1970s.

US jobs number fully recovery to a pre-pandemic, ADP says

Alex Kuptsikevich 02.03.2022 16:39

The US private sector created 475K jobs in February, compared to 509K and 780K in the previous two months. The growth is significantly above expectations (378K) and indicates the labour market's strength, potentially clearing the way for the Fed to tighten monetary policy. A fundamental revision of several data points is striking. Firstly, last month's value has been revised down from a contraction of 301k to an increase of 509k.Secondly, the indicator's history is revised, so the latest data points to a full employment recovery after the pandemic hit, while a month ago, the number of jobs was estimated to be more than 4M below its peak in February 2020. On the one hand, a strong labour market will allow the Fed to tighten monetary policy more confidently and quickly. On the other hand, it strengthens the inflationary spiral while the Fed can act more cautiously with policy tightening in light of extreme market volatility.

The Put / Call Ratio - A Technique Used To Gauge Market Extremes

Chris Vermeulen 02.03.2022 21:32

Perhaps you’ve heard of the “Put / Call Ratio” (PCR) and been unsure of exactly what it is or when and how to use it.First, a quick review of what Calls and Puts are. Calls are option contracts that increase in value from a RISE in the price of the underlying stock or index. Puts are option contracts that increase in value from a DROP in the price of the underlying stock or index.Let’s jump in and see what’s “under the hood” and how we might use that to better inform our decision-making as traders and investors.What Is the Put / Call Ratio?The PCR is a contrarian indicator based on the idea that market participants tend to get too bearish or bullish shortly before a reversal is about to materialize. When the market is at a point of extreme bearishness, participants tend to buy more Puts than usual. Conversely, when the market is at a point of extreme bullishness, participants tend to buy more Calls than normal. Contrarian logic suggests that most participants tend to be wrong when the market is near inflection points.Mathematically the Put / Call Ratio is simply the number of Puts divided by the number of Calls. A value of 1 would indicate that the same number of Calls and Puts are being purchased. A value greater than 1 indicates more Puts than Calls purchased. It follows that a value below 1 means that more Calls than Puts are purchased.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!The PCR can be calculated using either open interest or volume of contracts. It can be calculated for individual stocks and for indexes. Most trading and charting platforms have several versions of the PCR available for the major indexes. Indexes generally have charts available, while individual stocks may only have daily numerical value readily available. The PCR is generally more useful as an overall market sentiment indicator for the major indexes like the S&P 500. For most underlying, including major indexes like the S&P 500, the PCR tends to be below 1 much of the time. That makes some sense, as major indexes tend to have a long-term bullish bias. But in times of elevated fear, Put buying tends to be elevated in a rush to buy portfolio “insurance”. Outright bets on a market decline can add to that volume.How Do I Use the pcr?It helps to understand what “normal” behavior is for the number of Calls and Puts purchased for the particular index or stock. For an index like the S&P 500, a PCR of 0.9 or above suggests heavy Put buying and is typically seen as bullish from the contrarian view. For reference, at the height of the dot-com bubble in March 2000, the PCR dropped to as low as 0.39. Lots of calls were being purchased as the market was peaking.Let’s look at some recent examples where we see the Put / Call Ratio at extreme levels. Below we see a chart of the S&P 500 displayed with Heikin Ashi candles overlayed with the PCR (magenta line).In the first instance (circled in magenta), we see a low in the PCR where significantly more Calls than Puts were purchased. When interpreted as a contrarian indicator, that suggests bearishness to come. And indeed, we do see five days of bearishness to follow.We then see a sharp reversal to a relatively high PCR (blue circle), and we do see a bullish reversal that lasted for six days.At the yellow circle, we see a spike up in the PCR accompanied by a sharp increase in the underlying volume. However, we see a few days delay before the bullish reversal materializes in this instance. And the market was rather volatile on those days, as evidenced by the tall candles with long tails.At the green circle, we have a somewhat elevated PCR and another delayed reversal.ConclusionThe PCR is not particularly useful in sideways markets. But it can be useful at market extremes, albeit at times with some delay.Like many indicators, the PCR is far from 100% reliable unto itself. Used in conjunction with volume, volatility (VIX), support/resistance levels, trendlines, moving averages, and other technical indicators, the PCR can give us valuable clues about market sentiment and when a reversal may be in the making.Now That You Know more About the put / call ration, Read On To Learn More About Options TradingEvery day on Options Trading Signals, we do defined risk trades that protect us from black swan events 24/7. Many may think that is what stop losses are for. Well, remember the markets are only open about 1/3 of the hours in a day. Therefore, a stop loss only protects you for 1/3 of each day. Stocks can gap up or down. With options, you are always protected because we do defined risk in a spread. We cover with multiple legs, which are always on once you own. If you are new to trading or have been trading stock but are interested in options, you can find more information at The Technical Traders – Options Trading Signals Service. The head Options Trading Specialist Brian Benson, who has been trading options for almost 20 years, sends out real live trade alerts on actual trades, such as TSLA and NVDA, with real money. Ready to subscribe, click here: TheTechnicalTraders.com.Enjoy your day!

PPI Of The Euro Area Is 30.6% Higher Than At The Same Time The Year Before

Alex Kuptsikevich 03.03.2022 14:16

Euro area producer prices accelerated their rise in January - a significant early signal of a further increase in consumer inflation. A fresh Eurostat report showed that PPI rose by 5.2% in the first month of the year, twice as much as expected and by 30.6% to the same month a year earlier. Until the middle of last year, the year-over-year growth rate had not exceeded 10% in the indicator's 40-year history. However, the combination of a low base and subsequent supply-chain disruptions for some commodities and energy are feeding this wave. The latest spike in gas prices and Brent’s jump by a third since the start of February indicates that price pressure promises to remain extremely high next month. A couple of months ago, this would have been good news for the euro, as markets would have reinforced expectations of policy tightening. Now the figures point to a looming inflationary horror in the eurozone, which the ECB is unlikely to tackle in order not to multiply the region's eco

S&P 500 At Tipping Point To Start A Bear Market And What You Need To See

Chris Vermeulen 03.03.2022 21:38

Is a bear market on the way? My research suggests the downward sloping trend line (LIGHT ORANGE in the Daily/Weekly SPY chart below) may continue to act as solid resistance – possibly prompting a further breakdown in the markets for US major indexes.As we've seen recently, news and other unexpected events prompt very large price volatility events in the US major indexes. For example, the VIX recently rose above 30 again, which shows volatility levels are currently 3x higher than normal levels.Increased Volatility & The Start Of An Excess Phase Peak Should Be A Clear WarningThis increased volatility in the markets, coupled with the increased fear of the US Fed and the global unknowns (Ukraine, China, Debt Levels, and others), may be just enough pressure to crush any upside price trends over the next few months. Technically, my research suggests the $445 to $450 level is critical resistance. The SPY must climb above these levels to have any chance of moving higher.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! Unless the US markets find some new support and attempt to rally back towards recent highs, an “Excess Phase Peak” pattern will likely continue to unfold throughout 2022. This unique price pattern appears to have already reached a Phase 2 or Phase 3 setup. Please take a look at this Weekly GE example of an Excess Phase Peak pattern and how it transitions through Phase 1 through Phase 4 before entering an extended Bearish price trend.Read this research article about Excess Phase Peaks: HOW TO SPOT THEN END OF AN EXCESS PHASE - PART 2SPY May Already Be In A Phase 4 Excess Peak PhaseThis Daily SPY chart highlights my analysis, showing the major downward sloping trend line, the Middle Resistance Zone, and the lower Support Zone. Combined, these are acting as a “Wedge” for price over the past few weeks – tightening into an Apex near $435~440.If the US major indexes attempt to break this downward price trend, then the price must attempt to move solidly above this downward sloping price channel and try to rally back into the Resistance Zone (near $445~$450). Unless that happens, the price will likely transition into a deeper downward price move, attempting to break below recent lows, near $410, and possibly quickly moving down to the $360 level.SPY Weekly Chart Shows Consolidation Near $435 – Possibly Starting A Phase 4 Excess PeakTraders should stay keenly aware of the risks associated with the broad US and global market decline as the Ukraine war, and other unknowns continue to elevate fear and concerns related to the global economy. In my opinion, with the current excess global debt levels, extended speculative market bubbles, and the continued commodity price rally, we may be starting to transition away from an extended growth phase and into a deeper depreciation cycle phase.My research suggests we entered a new Depreciation cycle phase in late 2019 and are already more than 25 months into a potential 9.5-year global Depreciation cycle. What comes next should not surprise anyone.Read this article about Depreciation Cycle Phases: HOW TO INTERPRET & PROFIT FROM THE RISKS OF A DEPRECIATION CYCLE Traders should stay keenly focused on market risks and weaknesses. I expected the conflict in Ukraine to have been priced into the US markets over the past 7+ days. However, I believe the markets were unprepared for this scale or invasion and will attempt to settle fair stock price valuation levels as the conflict continues. This is not the same US/Global market Bullish trend we've become used to trading over the past 5+ years. Looking Forward - preparing for a possible Bear marketMarket dynamics and trends are changing from what we have experienced over the past 40 years for stocks and bonds. The 60/40 portfolio is costing you money now. Traders need an edge to stay ahead of these markets trends and to protect and profit from big trends.The only way to navigate the financial markets safely, no matter the direction, is through technical analysis. By following assets and money flows, we identify trend changes and move our capital into whatever index, sector, industry, bond, commodity, country, and even currency ETF. By following the money, you become part of new emerging trends and can profit during weak stock or bond conditions.Want Trading Strategies that Will Help You To Navigate Current Market Trends?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Is $50k A Possible Level For Bitcoin Price (BTCUSD)? ETH Decreases By 6.2%

Alex Kuptsikevich 04.03.2022 08:28

The momentum of pressure on the crypto market was due to the decline in stock indices, as the Fed gave signals of tightening policy. Technical factors also contributed to the negative dynamics - the inability to overcome the strong resistance of the 100-day moving average and mid-February highs around $45,000. Real Vision CEO Raul Pal believes that the dynamics of bitcoin against the backdrop of foreign political tensions in the world signals the onset of a bullish trend. According to Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, one of the world's leading independent financial institutions, BTC could reach $50,000 by the end of March. Billionaire investor Bill Miller said that the Russian authorities can use BTC as a reserve currency. Earlier, the US authorities called on crypto exchanges to prevent Russia from circumventing sanctions. Meanwhile, the Bank of Russia did not begin to soften its attitude towards bitcoin against the backdrop of sanctions and still advocates a complete ban on the circulation and mining of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is developing a correction, losing 4.5% over the past day to $41.4K. Methodical pressure on the first cryptocurrency was formed on Wednesday evening after a short break above $45K. Ethereum fell by 6.2%, other leading altcoins from the top ten sank from 2.8% (BNB) to 7.8% (Solana). The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, decreased by 3.7% over the day, to $1.83 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index sank 0.2 points to 42.9%. The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index dropped another 6 points to 33 - fear.

Tension Beetween Ukraine And Russia Definetely Shaped News In Recent Days

The EURUSD (Euro To Dollar) Keeps Going Down And Trades 1.100

Alex Kuptsikevich 04.03.2022 09:57

The single currency approached 1.1000 against US Dollar - its lowest since May 2020 - and is close to declining for the fourth week in a row. Investors fleeing into safe havens outside the eurozone continues to gain momentum. The single currency is also losing sharply against the Swiss franc, falling to 1.01, the lowest since January 2015. In modern history (at least since 1993), the EURCHF has only traded lower briefly in August 2011 and at the Swiss National Bank's unpegging of the exchange rate in 2015. In the meantime, the franc against the dollar is trading in a tight sideways position around 0.9200. A few observers argue that with the euro approaching parity with the franc, the risks of active interventions or a re-establishment of a strict peg increase. But we believe that it is still not the time for such a move. The NBS is not facing a downgrade now after the financial crisis. On the contrary, the risks of accelerating inflation are increasing, and the national currency appreciation helps to dampen external inflationary pressures. Furthermore, the stability of the franc against the dollar indicates that we see a flight away from the euro rather than a general pull towards the franc.

Strong jobs growth refreshed Dollar's boost

Alex Kuptsikevich 04.03.2022 15:20

The US labour market added 678K jobs outside the agricultural sector in February. This is higher than the expected 400K. In addition, last month's estimates were improved, which also adds strength to the fresh data.Hourly earnings were virtually flat over the month, with year-on-year growth slowing to 5.1% vs. +0.6% and 5.5%, respectively.The slowdown in wages while hiring accelerates seems due to the economy re-opening on the easing of coronavirus restrictions, which is bringing more low-paid workers back into the market.The FxPro analyst team, mentioned, that the publication of the employment data accelerated the dollar's gains, bringing it to 1.15% today and 2.4% so far this week. The EURUSD, which started the day near 1.1060, has slipped below 1.0900 at the time of writing, hitting lows since May 2020 and almost erasing the gains from the sharp pandemic phase.Next, Europe, as after the global financial crisis, could face a severe recession, which would increase the interest rate differential in the eurozone and the USA and encourage a flow of investors to the US dollar in addition to capital flows on the back of military action.

Bitcoin (BTC) To Hit $100k In A Few Years' Time?

Alex Kuptsikevich 07.03.2022 09:05

With a sharp decline over the weekend, Bitcoin wiped out the initial gains, gave away the positions to bears after the third straight week of gains. On Saturday and Sunday, there were drawdowns to $34K on the low-liquid market. So the rate of the first cryptocurrency fell to $38K with a 3.8% loss. However, over the past 24 hours, BTC has reached $39,000 while Ethereum has lost 4.5%. Other leading altcoins from the top ten decline from 2% (XRP) to 6.8% (LUNA). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 3.8%, to $1.71 trillion. The bitcoin dominance index sank from 42.9% on Friday to 42.3% due to the sale of bitcoin over the weekend. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index is at 23 now, remaining in a state of "extreme fear". Looking back, in the middle of the week, the index had a moment in the neutral position. The FxPro Analyst team mentioned that the sales were triggered by reports that the BTC.com pool banned the registration of Russian users. Cryptocurrencies do not remain aloof from politics, and they are weakly confirming the role of an alternative to the banking system now, supporting EU and US sanctions against Russia, and showing their own initiative. The news appeared that Switzerland would freeze the crypto assets of the Russians who fall under the sanctions. In the second half of the week, bitcoin lost almost all the growth against the backdrop of a decline in stock indices. Although, last week started on a positive wave: BTC added almost $8,000 (21%) since previous Monday, but couldn't overcome the strong resistance of mid-February highs at around $45,000 and the 100-day moving average. Speaking about the prospects, pressure on all risky assets will continue to be exerted by the situation around Ukraine, where hostilities have been taking place for two weeks. Worth mentioning that the world-famous investor and writer Robert Kiyosaki said that the US is “destroying the dollar” and called for investing in gold and bitcoin. At the same time, the founder of the investment company SkyBridge Capital (Anthony Scaramucci) is confident that bitcoin will reach $100,000 by 2024. At the moment, he has invested about $1 billion in BTC. Plis, a group of American senators is developing a bill that opens access to the crypto market for institutional investors. And one more news to consider: the city of Lugano in Switzerland has recognized bitcoin and the leading stablecoin Tether (USDT) as legal tender.

Is It Too Late To Begin Adapting To Higher Volatility In The Market?

Chris Vermeulen 07.03.2022 22:18

Now is the time for traders to adapt to higher volatility and rapidly changing market conditions. One of the best ways to do this is to monitor different asset classes and track which investments are gaining and losing money flow. Knowing what the Best Asset Now is (BAN) is critical for consistent growth no matter the market condition.With that said, buyers (countries, investors, and traders) are panicking as the commodity Wheat, for example, gained more than 40% last week.‘Panic Commodity Buying’ in Wheat – Weekly ChartAccording to the US Dept. of Agriculture, China will hold 69% of the world’s corn reserves, 60% of rice and 51% of wheat by mid-2022.Commodity markets surged to their largest gains in years as Ukrainian ports were closed and sanctions against Russia sent buyers scrambling for replacement supplies. Global commodities, commodity funds, and commodity ETFs are attracting huge capital inflows as investors seek to cash in on the rally in oil, metals, and grains.How does the Russia – Ukraine war affect global food supplies?The conflict between major commodity producers Russia and Ukraine is causing countries that rely heavily on commodity imports to feed their citizens to enter into panic buying. The breadbaskets of Ukraine and Russia account for more than 25% of the global wheat trade and nearly 20% of the global corn trade.Last week, it was reported that many countries have dangerously low grain supplies. Nader Saad, an Egypt Cabinet spokesman, has raised the alarm that currently, Egypt has only nine months’ worth of wheat in silos. The supply includes five months of strategic reserves and four months of domestic production to cover the bread needs of 102 million Egyptians. Additionally, Avigdor Lieberman, Israel’s economic minister, said on Thursday (3/3/22) that his country should keep “a low profile” regarding the conflict in eastern Europe, given that Israel imports 50 percent of its wheat from Russia and 30 percent from Ukraine.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!The longer-term potential for much higher grain prices exists, but it’s worth noting that Friday’s close of nearly $12.00 a bushel for wheat is not that far away from the all-time record high of $13.30, recorded 14-years ago. According to Trading Economics, wheat has gone up 75.08% year-to-date while other commodity markets like Oats are up a whopping 85.13%, Coffee 74.68%, and Corn 34.07%.How are other markets reacting to these global events?Year-to-date comparison returns as of 3/4/2022:-9.18% S&P 500 (index), -7.49% DJI (index), -15.21% Nasdaq (index), +37.44% Exxon Mobile (oil), +20.08% Freeport McMoran (copper & gold), -20.68% Tesla (alternative energy), -24.49% Microstrategy (bitcoin play), -40.51% Meta-Facebook (social media)As stock holdings and 401k’s are shrinking it may be time to re-evaluate your portfolio. There are ETFs available that can give you exposure to commodities, energy, and metals.Here is an example of a few of these ETFs:+53.81% WEAT Teucrium Wheat Fund+41.79% GSG iShares S&P TSCI Commodity -Indexed Trust+104.40 UCO ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil+59.32% PALL Aberdeen Standard Physical Palladium SharesHow is the global investor reacting to rocketing commodity prices and increasing market volatility?We can track global money flow by monitoring the following 1-month currency graph (www.finviz.com). The Australian Dollar is up +4.25%, the New Zealand Dollar +3.72%, and the Canadian Dollar +0.30% vs. the US Dollar due to the rising commodity prices like metals and energy. These country currencies are known as commodity currencies.The Switzerland Franc +0.96%, the Japanese Yen +0.35%, and the US Dollar +0.00% are all benefiting from global capital seeking a safe haven. As volatility continues to spike, these country currencies will experience more inflows as capital comes out of depreciating assets and seeks stability.We also notice that capital outflow is occurring from the European Union-Eurodollar -4.55% and the British Pound -2.22% due to their close proximity (risk) to the Russia - Ukraine war.www.finviz.comGlobal central banks will need to begin raising their interest rates to combat high inflation!Due to the rapid acceleration of inflation, the US Federal Reserve may have been looking to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at its policy meeting two weeks from now. However, given Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the FED may become more cautious and consider raising interest rates by only 25 basis points on March 15-16.What strategies can help you navigate current market trends?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals are starting to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.Now is the time to keep your eye on the ball!I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Crude Oil Climbs High. Is It Enough to Enjoy a Better View?

Sebastian Bischeri 07.03.2022 16:45

The threat of sanctions caused a stir in the markets: WTI spiked above $130 and Brent is nearing the $140 mark. Where is crude oil going next? A possible Western embargo on Russian oil caused oil prices to soar again on Monday, as stock markets feared persistent inflation and a consequent economic slowdown. On the US dollar side, the continued rally of the greenback has propelled the dollar index (DXY) towards higher levels, as it is now approaching the three-figure mark ($100), even though it has not had a huge impact on crude oil, other petroleum products, or any other commodities in general. What we rather witness here is the greenback’s safe haven effect attracting investors, much like gold would tend to act in a “store of value” role. US Dollar Index (DXY) CFD (daily chart) On the geopolitical scene, Russia-Ukraine peace talks will be resumed today in Brest (Belarus) at 14:00 GMT, while another meeting is already scheduled at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum on Thursday in Turkey. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba will talk there in the presence of the Turkish foreign minister. We might therefore expect some de-escalation in the Black Sea basin this week if the two parties involved were able to reach an agreement after further negotiations. WTI Crude Oil (CLJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Brent Crude Oil (BRNK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart) RBOB Gasoline (RBJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Regarding natural gas, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) published its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2022 report, suggesting that even with non-hydro renewable sources set to rapidly grow through 2050, oil and gas-derived sources should still remain the top energy sources to fuel most of the United States. The agency is forecasting a rise in the production of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) – which mainly comes from shale gas – by at least 35%! In summary, the threat of sanctions has already wiped out almost all Russian oil – at least 7% of global supply – from the world oil market. In the weeks or months to come, we can see sanctions on Russian oil exports create a boomerang effect on European economies, decreasing world market supply, increasing prices for industry, as well as even more rising expenses, and thus cost of living through a ripple effect. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Will The Conflict Between Russia And Ukraine Maintain The Rise Crude Oil Prices?

Alex Kuptsikevich 08.03.2022 12:18

Brent oil is trading near $125 - in the 2011 and 2012 highs area. The market continues to receive pretty bullish comments from politicians and officials. However, traders seemed set to pause to digest current price levels after a frightening rally to $129 at one point on Monday, reacting to reports that the US and allies are weighing a ban on Russian oil and gas imports. In Russia, Novak (a former energy minister and co-founder of OPEC+ deals) points out that the oil embargo will push prices into the $300 a barrel area. Probably, this forecast is based on a comparison of the current situation with the OPEC embargo in late 1972, when the price soared 3-4 times within a few weeks. The International Energy Agency's executive director said the Oil can still move higher from current levels. Officially, Russia is not refusing to export Oil and Gas, but local companies have recently failed to sell Oil because of a buyers' boycott or fears of being hit by US and EU sanctions. Shell's just-announced refusal to buy all Russian Oil is doing little to bring down the commodity price. With this news backdrop, Oil is getting support on the downside in the $115 area, where last week's highs were located. It will take a lot more political will to reverse the trend in Oil. Also, the chances of Oil from Iran to make up for the drop-offs are somewhat thawed, as the president has said that Tehran will not give up its red lines. Iran would logically be expected to use the situation to bargain for better terms on a deal with the West. The same applies to Venezuela, where US representatives have headed to secure a rise in global production. Will the countries previously most disadvantaged by US sanctions use the momentum to ramp up production? That question is not yet answered. Likely, we should expect price rises to accelerate in the coming days before the situation reverses into a constructive direction and prices head for a correction.

It's Not Only About Price Of Gold. Palladium Price, Gold (XAUUSD) And Copper Price In Times Of Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Alex Kuptsikevich 08.03.2022 12:16

While the world discusses the prospect of an embargo on Russian oil and gas, the absolute madness is in metals. In many of them, Russia has a pretty significant share, and investors fear a ban on exports could be Russia’s response to sanctions, on a par with restricting supplies of agricultural products. Palladium set a new all-time high at $3439 on Monday, gaining 14.8% on the day at one point. Nickel reached $100,000/tonne, gaining more than 200% over the two days, but soon retreated to $82,000 (+71% since the start of the day). Aluminum reached $4000 per tonne on Monday, compared with stabilization at $2600 from November to mid-December. Copper exceeded $10800/tonne yesterday, rewriting its historic high. Still, if we apply ‘peacetime’ patterns, we can see short-squeezes and a final capitulation by the bears in one metal after another. A reversal usually follows this. Copper and palladium have been sliding hard after making new all-time highs, and we’re now seeing a distinct tug-of-war between the buyers and the sellers, at an impressive distance from yesterday’s extremes. Nickel is retracing a sharp bounce today. The troy ounce reached $2020 earlier on Tuesday, having hit new highs since August 2020. The momentum in gold gained new strength after restrictions from cryptocurrency exchanges for Russian residents. But here, too, it is worth betting with great caution on the upside, as there will be a big seller entering the market. The Bank of Russia, for the most part, has no other means but to sell off the gold from its reserves in Russia. These steps could be taken tomorrow, as Monday and Tuesday were national holidays. Those actions will keep the price of gold on the way to the all-time highs near $2075, where it could be as early as this week. However, the chances are higher that more sellers will enter into gold, which will cool the current rally, temporarily correcting the price into the $1960-2000 area before the end of March.

GBPUSD (Pound To US Dollar) Reaches Quite Old Levels

Alex Kuptsikevich 08.03.2022 14:49

The British pound was down to a 16-month low at 1.3080 in the morning, having lost 2% last Thursday. The pressure on the British currency looks to be developing capital outflows from Europe on speculation that reduced energy and materials supplies from Russia will prove to be a shock to the region's economy in the near term. In addition, the British pound was probably influenced by technical factors yesterday and today. The single currency has been sharply oversold in recent days and the EURGBP approach of 0.8200 on Monday morning triggered a strong wave of buying, bringing the pair back above 0.8310. On Monday, the euro got visible support against a wide range of other currencies, from the Swiss franc to the New Zealand dollar. Interest in the euro was also supported on Tuesday by a rally in equities on EU plans to issue joint bonds. But these are also good fundamentals for the British currency, which often directly correlates to the stock market. Short-term, relatively strong oversold conditions in the British currency creates the potential for a technical bounce in the coming days and in the area of 1.30-1.31 to stop its decline, gaining strong buy support until the end of the week and further heading to 1.3350 by the end of the month.

Ukraine’s Defense Shines ‒ and So Does Gold

Arkadiusz Sieron 08.03.2022 17:37

Russian forces have made minimal progress against Ukraine in recent days. Unlike the invader, gold rallied very quickly and achieved its long-awaited target - $2000! Nobody expected the Russian inquisition! Nobody expected such a fierce Ukrainian defense, either. Of course, the situation is still very dramatic. Russian troops continued their offensive and – although the pace slowed down considerably – they managed to make some progress, especially in southern Ukraine, by bolstering air defense and supplies. The invaders are probably preparing for the decisive assault on Kyiv. Where Russian soldiers can’t break the defense, they bomb civilian infrastructure and attack ordinary people, including targeting evacuation corridors, to spread terror. Several Ukrainian cities are besieged and their inhabitants lack basic necessities. The humanitarian crisis intensifies. However, Russian forces made minimal ground advances over recent days, and it’s highly unlikely that Russia has successfully achieved its planned objectives to date. According to the Pentagon, nearly all of the Russian troops that were amassed on Ukraine’s border are already fighting inside the country. Meanwhile, the international legion was formed and started its fight for Ukraine. Moreover, Western countries have recently supplied Ukraine with many hi-tech military arms and equipment, including helicopters, anti-tank weapons, and anti-aircraft missiles, which could be crucial in boosting the Ukrainian defense. Implications for Gold What does the war in Ukraine imply for the precious metals? Well, gold is shining almost as brightly as the Ukrainian defense. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal has surged above $1,980 on Monday (March 7, 2022), the highest level since August 2020. What’s more, as the next chart shows, during today’s early trading, gold has soared above $2,020 for a while, reaching almost an all-time high. In my most recent report, I wrote: “as long as the war continues, the yellow metal may shine (…). The continuation or escalation of Russia’s military actions could provide support for gold prices.” This is exactly what we’ve been observing. This is not surprising. The war has increased the safe-haven demand for gold, while investors have become more risk-averse and have continued selling equities. As you can see in the chart below, the S&P 500 Index has plunged more than 12% since its peak in early January. Some of the released funds went to the gold market. What’s more, the credit spreads have widened, while the real interest rates have declined. Both these trends are fundamentally positive for the yellow metal. Another bullish driver of gold prices is inflation. It’s already high, and the war in Ukraine will only add to the upward pressure. The oil price has jumped above $120 per barrel, almost reaching a record peak. Higher energy prices would translate into higher CPI readings in the near future. Other commodities are also surging. For example, the Food Price Index calculated by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has soared above 140 in February, which is a new all-time high, as the chart below shows. Higher commodity prices could lead to social unrest, as was the case with the Arab Spring or recent protests in Kazakhstan. Higher energy prices and inflation imply slower real GDP growth and more stagflationary conditions. As a reminder, in 2008 we saw rapidly rising commodities, which probably contributed to the Great Recession. In such an environment, it’s far from clear that the Fed will be very hawkish. It will probably hike the federal funds rate in March, as expected, but it may soften its stance later amid the conflict between Ukraine and the West with Russia and elevated geopolitical risks. The more dovish Fed should also be supportive of gold prices. However, when the fighting cools off, the fear will subside, and we could see a correction in the gold market. Both sides are exhausted by the conflict and don’t want to continue it forever. The Russian side has already softened its stance a bit during the most recent round of negotiations, as it probably realized that a military breakthrough was unlikely. Hence, when the conflict ends, gold’s current tailwind could turn into a headwind. Having said that, the impact of the conflict may not be as short-lived this time. I'm referring to the relatively harsh sanctions and high energy prices that may last for some time after the war is over. . The same applies to a more hawkish stance toward Russia and European governments’ actions to become less dependent on Russian gas and oil. A lot depends on how the conflict will be resolved, and whether it brings us Cold War 2.0. However, two things are certain: the world has already changed geopolitically, and at the beginning of this new era, the fundamental outlook for gold has turned more bullish than before the war. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Has Increased By 8.7%, Ether (ETH) Has Gone Up By 7.9%, XRP Has Added 3.3%, Terra +21%

Alex Kuptsikevich 09.03.2022 08:43

The last bitcoin growth impulse confirmed the break of the downtrend: the chart confidently rebounded from the former upper limit of the downtrend trading range. However, as before in March, a consolidation above the previous highs in the area of $45K is required to confirm a break in the trend. As Ethereum dropped to a 10-day low, traders started buying put options in anticipation of the second cryptocurrency falling to $2,200. On March 14, the European Parliament will approve the final version of the bill on the regulation of cryptocurrencies without wording that could be interpreted as a potential ban on bitcoin mining. US President Biden will also sign an executive order to regulate cryptocurrencies this week. The focus may be on tracking transactions and preventing circumvention of US sanctions. The cost of bitcoin in rubles has updated its historical highs, exceeding 5 million rubles. Bitcoin was not so expensive even in April and November 2021, when its price in dollars exceeded $60,000. In general, the benchmark cryptocurrency has jumped by 8.7% over the past day, to 41,450. Ethereum has added 7.9% over the same time, while other leading altcoins from the top ten show growth from 3.3% (XRP) to 21% (Terra). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market grew by 6.9% over the day, to $1.83 trillion. The dominance index jumped to 43%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index rose 1 point to 22, remaining in "extreme fear" territory.Bitcoin was bought on the decline to $38K, and the move to $40K on Wednesday morning caused a surge in buying, probably associated with the closing of part of the short positions, quickly bringing the rate to current values.

Russia-Ukraine is there any hope for the markets

Alex Kuptsikevich 09.03.2022 11:23

The Russian rouble remains under pressure, while all the new controls on currency transactions in Russia are alienating the exchange rate at home and on global FX. The 12% commission on currency purchases explains the difference between the external and domestic exchange rates. That said, one must realise that "catching the bottom" of the ruble is hardly wise when new sanctions are imposed almost on a daily basis. The economic landslide continues with extreme speed. Across the other EM markets, there is a concern or even pessimism about the medium-term outlook, and some relative easing of the fear level is striking in the stock markets today. Commodity markets, which continued their move towards new extremes yesterday, have encountered substantial selling, which continues today. Some reduction in the excitement can be attributed to hopes of progress towards a peaceful resolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.Nevertheless, the conditions already prevailing in commodity markets are putting serious pressure on EM equities and currencies. EM populations are more vulnerable to soaring basic food and energy prices and currencies to capital outflows due to flight to safety. All of this is tightening financial conditions is undermining the economic recovery that investors had hoped for at the start of the year because of the retreat of the pandemic. While the end of last year and the beginning of this one were sentiments that growth momentum was shifting from the US to Europe and emerging markets, events in recent weeks have not only returned EM markets to the downward trend but again show that US markets are the best refuge for capital. For example, Chinese indices are losing 35% (Hang Seng) to 43% (China H-star) from their February 2021 peak. And this trend will not quickly reverse even if the military conflict in Eastern Europe ends right now because economic and reputational damage has already been done, which will take months or even years to undo.

Crude Oil may have played its game

Alex Kuptsikevich 09.03.2022 11:33

A barrel of Oil on the spot market briefly topped $130 for Brent and $125 for WTI, having retreated to $127 and $121, respectively, by the start of European trading. Oil received its latest boost on expectations that the US will announce an embargo on Russian energy imports. Traders took short-term profits on Biden's speech, which kept Oil from rising further. On the sellers' side was also news that the UK was unable to repeat the US move and is instead set to halt energy imports from Russia before the end of the year. Biden also noted that many European countries would not be able to stop buying Russian Oil and Gas any time soon because of their heavy reliance on them.The latest comments have somewhat dampened pressure on the Oil price, as have earlier International Energy Agency calculations on ways to reduce Europe's energy consumption from Russia by up to 80% as early as this year. Such plans often over-idealise the possibility of a coordinated effort, but their mere appearance has a stabilising effect on the market. For its part, Russia has also worked to prove its role as a reliable energy supplier, loading Crude Oil at ports in line with the schedule.Nevertheless, markets continue to face an increased risk premium, and Russian Oil struggles to find new buyers. The UAE and Saudi Arabia try to use the situation to their advantage, refusing to cooperate with the US to increase oil supplies. Iran is haggling for more favourable terms on the nuclear deal. Russia, the architect of the deal, has suddenly become an obstacle to it, demanding legal guarantees from the US that sanctions will not affect Russian-Iranian trade, thereby trying to thwart the US attempts to increase oil supply in countries where US sanctions limit production.We would venture to guess that all existing conditions are already built into the Oil quotes, and its price is now near a ceiling for the coming weeks and months. From here, we could see the establishment of a fairly broad corridor of $95-130 per barrel for Brent for the foreseeable future. This is a vast range, reflecting the outlook's persistence of extreme volatility and extreme uncertainty.

How You Can Minimize Trading Risk & Grow Capital During A Global Crisis

Chris Vermeulen 09.03.2022 22:39

To minimize trading risk and grow capital during a global crisis is somewhat hinged on the answers to speculative questions. How long will the Russia – Ukraine war last? How high is the price of oil and gas going to go? How quickly will central banks raise interest rates to counter high inflation? What assets should I put my money into? Knowing what the Best Asset Now (BAN) is, is critical for risk management and consistent growth no matter the market condition!‘BUY THE DIP’ or ‘SELL THE RALLY’? - DJI Weekly ChartAs of 3/8/22, YTD returns are: DJIA -10.20%, S&P 500 -12.49%, Nasdaq 100 -18.70%The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded as high as 36952.65 on January 5, 2022The DJIA put in a Covid 2020 Low of 18213.65 on March 23, 2020. When you double the price of this significant low, you get a price of 36427.30, which the DJIA reached on November 4, 2021. This was precisely 591 calendar days from the 2020 low. The 200% level seems to have capped the bull rally. If, in fact, this is the top and the start of a bear market, we should experience high volatility both up and down. However, the highs and lows should be lower as the market begins to trend lower. The volatility will also continue to increase as the market deflates and continues to lose capital.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! It appears this scenario may very well coincide with the fundamental current events of high inflation, central banks unable to add stimulus, having to raise their interest rates, and current/future geopolitical events.What-To-Do Before the Storm Hits“Have A Plan and Stick-To-Your-Plan”There are some basic strategies or practices that professional traders utilize to minimize trading risk and grow capital. Here are a few ideas:Bull/Bear Markets – In an upmarket, you should buy the dips. In a down market, you should do the opposite and sell the rallies. Rallies in a down 'bear' market tend to be very fast and short-lived.Diversification – Don't have your eggs in too many baskets. It is better to navigate thru a storm by focusing your resources specifically rather than generally.Leverage – Reduce leverage, position size, or know how you will respond to different percentage losses or gains. Understand what your investment objective is as well as your tolerance for risk. If you're having trouble sleeping at night, you should reduce your holdings to the place where you are comfortable.Leverage is a mathematical equation, and it does not have to be 1x, 2x, etc. It can also be 0.75x, 0.50x, etc. You get to decide what's best for you and your family. Leverage is also a double-edged sword! Be careful, especially when the markets are on edge and volatile.Where is the Institutional Money Going?The global currency market, otherwise known as Forex or FX, is the largest market in the world. According to the BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey, published on December 8, 2019, by the Bank for International Settlements, it has an average daily transactional volume of $6.6 trillion.By tracking global money flow, we can get a pretty good idea of where the smart money is going. For now, let’s see what has happened during the last 6-months.According to www.finviz.com, we notice that the US Dollar, despite its Covid stimulus spending spree, was the preferred currency. However, the Eurodollar has seen substantial outflows decreasing by -7.60%, which is entirely understandable with the Russia – Ukraine War at their doorstep.Global central banks ponder how quickly to raise interest rates in order to curb high inflation!According to TradingEconomics, the current global interest rates by major country are: United States 0.25%, Japan -0.10%, Switzerland -0.75%, Euro Region 0.00%, United Kingdom 0.50%, Canada 0.50%, and Australia 0.10%.The US Federal Reserve may have been looking to raise interest rates by as much as 50 basis points at its next policy meeting. However, given Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the FED may become more cautious and consider raising interest rates by only 25 basis points on March 15-16. We need to pay close attention to this high-impact market event.What strategies can help you minimize trading risk and grow capital?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Minimizing risk in order to grow your capital must remain a primary focus for all investors and traders. Now is the time to keep your eye on the ball!I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Crude Oil (WTI) Price Changes, Another Part Of Russia-Ukraine Negotiations Incoming

FXStreet News 09.03.2022 16:19

Better sounding newsflow regarding the possibility of a diplomatic solution to the Russo-Ukraine war is weighing heavily on crude oil. Talks between the Russian and Ukrainian Foreign Ministers on Thursday will be key. WTI is currently down more than $7.50 as traders also mull a possible US/Iran nuclear deal and further reserve releases. A slightly more conciliatory tone to the rhetoric from Ukrainian and Russian officials regarding the possibility of a diplomatic solution to the war ahead of Thursday’s meeting of the two nations’ Foreign Ministers in Turkey has seen oil markets plunge. Russia said on Wednesday that “some progress” had been made with Ukraine and laid out a potential territorial compromise, while a Ukrainian official close to President Zelenskyy hinted that Russian demands for “neutrality” can be discussed. Front-month WTI futures have subsequently tanked nearly $6.50 per barrel on the session to near the $118 level, a near $12 turnaround from Tuesday’s highs near $130. Traders also said that markets were taking a more relaxed view on the US ban on Russian oil imports announced on Tuesday and that this was weighing on prices. “Theoretically, the US could even offset the outages from Russia with its own production,” said an analyst at Commerzbank. Elsewhere, some traders cited expectations for more oil reserve releases as triggering profit-taking after the head of the International Energy Agency hinted that last week’s decision by member nations to release 60M barrels could be the first of further releases. As oil traders continue to juggle numerous competing themes, choppy market conditions are likely here to stay for some time. With Iran’s chief negotiator in the nuclear talks having arrived back in Vienna on Wednesday to continue discussions, it may well be that a deal is imminent, despite recent concerns that the Russians were adding additional demands. A deal would pave the way for over 1.3M barrels in daily Iranian crude oil exports to return to global markets. In the more immediate future, focus will return to the global crude oil inventory situation with the release of weekly official US data at 1530GMT.

Crypto Update: Bitcoin (BTC) Has Lost 5.6%, Ether (ETH) Has Decreased By 4.8%, Terra (LUNA) Has Lost 1% And AVAX Has Gone Down As Well

Alex Kuptsikevich 10.03.2022 08:33

Bitcoin soared 8.8% on Wednesday, ending the day around $41.9K. Apparently, the benchmark cryptocurrency experienced clear problems with growth above $42K. On Thursday morning we see an equally strong reversal move back to $39K. As a result, Bitcoin lost 5.6% in 24hours Ethereum - 4.8%, other leading altcoins from the top ten are declining from 1% (Terra) to 7.2% (Avalanche).According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 4.5% over the day, to $1.75 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index dropped from 43.0% to 42.7%.The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index added 6 points to 28, climbing into “fear” territory.Bitcoin's growth momentum was also supported by the positive dynamics of stock indices, however, on Thursday morning, the positive pull on them remains in contrast to the sell-off of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin jumped when a statement by Janet Yellen appeared on the website of the US Department of the Treasury, which does not contain strict measures to control the field of cryptocurrencies. The statement was posted, probably prematurely, and then quickly removed from the site.Later on Wednesday, US President Joe Biden signed the first executive order to regulate cryptocurrencies in the country. The document contained only the most general provisions, such as consumer protection, financial stability, technology development and the illegal use of cryptocurrencies. More specific measures in the field of control over the digital asset market will be developed by individual federal departments. In our opinion, the States are making it clear that they will not allow cryptocurrencies to become a shadow business and be used to circumvent sanctions, taxes, money laundering and similar things. Such control is more difficult to implement than with centrally issued fiat money.

Crude Oil (BRENT) Price Plunges As There's A Chance Of Support

Alex Kuptsikevich 10.03.2022 09:54

Brent crude experienced its biggest intraday decline yesterday, losing more than $17 on the day to $110, with the range of movements on the spot market exceeding $26.The momentum of the decline was triggered by Blinken's (US Secretary of State) reports that the UAE was ready to ramp up its production, replacing Oil from Russia and stabilising the market. UAE officials soon said they remained committed to the current agreements. But this did not help Oil, which stabilised near levels a week ago. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have significant spare capacity to restore their production to pre-demand levels and even increase their global market share. At the same time, most OPEC representatives are not fully committed to their quotas. Iran and Venezuela have more options. Both countries are trying to use the situation to ease US sanctions pressure. Iran produces 2.3 million barrels per day, about half of pre-sanctions levels. Venezuela's production is around 0.8m BPD versus 3.1m BPD before the 2019 sanctions. Both countries can get 0.4m b/d back on the market quickly, but it will take a significant investment in the industry and a long time to grow after that. Caracas is already curtseying towards the US by releasing two prisoners. The US is lifting some sanctions on some Iranian politicians even before the deal is struck. These are signs of progress towards easing sanctions and a clear signal to Russia that the world is not so dependent on its energy. These are all signs favouring our idea that the peak of fear, and therefore oil prices, is over. Furthermore, Russia has not yet even gone so far as to threaten to halt exports as OPEC did in 1972. That said, military tensions and further restrictions on Russian oil and gas imports could trigger growth impulses, some of which could be strong. However, the oil price situation looks depleted. We are set to see either a consolidation around these levels in a pessimistic war scenario, or a correction to around $90 on progress in the peace talks and the start of a move to ease sanctions on Russia, Iran and Venezuela.

Russians Are Probably Confused - Russian Rouble (RUB) Keeps Its Low Levels

Alex Kuptsikevich 10.03.2022 10:57

The Russian rouble has been on the decline, trading around 120 per dollar on the Moscow Exchange and making historic lows almost daily. Despite ever-increasing capital controls, the Russian currency is still unable to find a bottom, as tighter controls are only further discouraging buyers of the rouble. It would be logical to expect the opposite effect from restrictive measures on the Russian population, as desperate attempts to limit currency purchases only increase the feeling that the government has no control over the situation. Remembering the hyperinflation of the early 1990s, ordinary Russians and businesses are looking at hard currency as a last resort to save liquidity for a rainy day. Recent data on consumer activity also showed a surge in buyers. The initial drivers were not the mass exodus of foreign brands from the Russian market but the desire to spend the rapidly depreciating roubles. By the end of this week, this trend promises to become stronger, fuelled by the severest restrictions on capital controls in recent history, which do not allow the legal exchange of rubles for currency. In such an environment, it is difficult to expect the rouble to find a foothold before all sanctions on Russia are announced, and capital controls turn towards easing or go into fine-tuning mode

How the latest CPI affected Bitcoin

Alex Kuptsikevich 10.03.2022 15:19

Consumer prices in the USA rose by 0.8% in February as expected. Inflation for the same month a year earlier was 7.9% compared to 7.5% a month earlier and in line with average forecasts.Over the last 12 months, the actual data has exceeded the forecast ten times, so the stabilisation seen in February is regarded as cautiously good news. Previously, market participants had assumed that inflation would peak in February, but the latest round of commodity prices makes these forecasts overly optimistic. In peacetime, markets would have priced in more decisive monetary policy tightening moves by the Fed. However, investors have recently discounted expectations of a rate hike by 50 points, contrary to a jump in commodity prices. The markets assume that the Fed will be much more cautious in tightening policy. This thesis is doubly true against the background of falling government bond yields and widening spreads between them and high-yield bonds.When the Fed has limited capacity to respond to inflation, this is bad news for the dollar because it undermines its long-term prospects for maintaining purchasing power. In this regard, the impulsive pressure on the US currency immediately after the release should not be surprising.Long term, this is also good news for bitcoin, which is not subject to inflation. However, the short-term reaction could well be mixed, as fears of a new stock market decline are also added to this cocktail, as stocks "don't like" accelerating inflation.

The War Is on for Two Weeks. How Does It Affect Gold?

Arkadiusz Sieron 10.03.2022 17:21

With each day of the Russian invasion, gold confirms its status as the safe-haven asset. Its long-term outlook has become more bullish than before the war. Two weeks have passed since the Russian attack on Ukraine. Two weeks of the first full-scale war in Europe in the 21th century, something I still can’t believe is happening. Two weeks of completely senseless conflict between close Slavic nations, unleashed without any reasonable justification and only for the sake of Putin’s imperial dreams and his vision of Soviet Reunion. Two weeks of destruction, terror, and death that captured the souls of thousands of soldiers and hundreds of civilians, including dozens of children. Just yesterday, Russian forces bombed a maternity hospital in southern Ukraine. I used to be a fan of Russian literature and classic music (who doesn’t like Tolstoy or Tchaikovsky?), but the systematic bombing of civilian areas (and the use of thermobaric missiles) makes me doubt whether the Russians really belong to the family of civilized nations. Now, for the warzone report. The country’s capital and largest cities remain in the hands of the Ukrainians. Russian forces are drawing reserves, deploying conscript troops to Ukraine to replace great losses. They are still trying to encircle Kyiv. They are also strengthening their presence around the city of Mykolaiv in southern Ukraine. However, the Ukrainian army heroically holds back enemy attacks in all directions. The defense is so effective that the large Russian column north-west of Kyiv has made little progress in over a week, while Russian air activity has significantly decreased in recent days. Implications for Gold How has the war, that has been going on for already two weeks, affected the gold market so far? Well, as the chart below shows, the military conflict was generally positive for the yellow metal, boosting its price from $1,905 to $1989, or about 4.4%. Please note that initially the price of gold jumped, only to decline after a while, and only then rallied, reaching almost $2,040 on Tuesday (March 8, 2022). However, the price has retreated since then, below the key level of $2,000. This is partially a normal correction after an impressive upward move. It’s also possible that the markets are starting to smell the end of the war. You see, Russian forces can’t break through the Ukrainian defense. They can continue besieging cities, but the continuation of the invasion entails significant costs, and Russia’s economy is already sinking. Hence, they can either escalate the conflict in a desperate attempt to conquer Kyiv – according to the White House, Russia could conduct a chemical or biological weapon attack in Ukraine – or try to negotiate the ceasefire. In recent days, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, said he was open to a compromise with Russia. Today, the Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers met in Turkey for the first time since the horror started (unfortunately, without any agreement). However, although gold prices may consolidate for a while or even fall if the prospects of the de-escalation increase, the long-term fundamentals have turned more bullish. As you can see in the chart below, the real interest rates decreased amid the prospects of higher inflation and slower economic growth. Russia and Ukraine are key exporters of many commodities, including oil, which would increase the production costs and bring us closer to stagflation. What’s next, risk aversion increased significantly, which is supportive of safe-haven assets such as gold. After all, Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine is a turning point in modern history, which ends a period of civilized relations with Russia and relative safety in the world. Although Russia’s army discredited itself in Ukraine, the country still has nuclear weapons able to destroy the globe. As you can see in the chart below, both the credit spreads (represented here by the ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread) and the CBOE volatility index (also called “the fear index”) rose considerably in the last two weeks. Hence, the long-term outlook for gold is more bullish than before the invasion. The short-term future is more uncertain, as there might be periods of consolidation and even corrections if the conflict de-escalates or ends. However, given the lack of any decisions during today’s talks between Ukrainian and Russian foreign ministers and the continuation of the military actions, gold may rally further. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

Economic Indicators Of Great Britain Released

Alex Kuptsikevich 11.03.2022 09:11

The new monthly package of UK statistics highlighted the fine shape of the economy in January. For the month, GDP rose by 0.8%, against an expected strengthening of 0.2% and the three-month growth rate accelerated from 1.0% to 1.1%. Industrial production strengthened by 0.7% for the month and 2.3% for January 2021, also beating economists' expectations. The UK economy started the year in good shape, responding positively to the easing of the coronavirus restrictions. This is short-term positive news for the British pound, which has managed to find support after touching another low since November 2020 at 1.3080 per dollar. A strong base in the economy will allow the Bank of England to strengthen its fight against inflation by raising rates. However, price shocks across many commodities and foodstuffs dramatically increase the chances of short-term stagflation in the UK as consumers will save more by cutting back on purchases of non-essential goods and services due to rising energy and food prices. The Ukrainian war crisis, now in its third week, has seen the GBPUSD fall 3.8%, taking more than 1/3 of the pair's rise from the lows at the start of the pandemic. A move below 1.3160 was a signal to a move into a deeper correction phase, and the pair could plunge to 1.2880 at the beginning of next week.

Crypto Update: Bitcoin Price Has Decreased By 1%, ETH Hasn't Fluctuate Much. XRP Has Gone Up By 1.6%

Alex Kuptsikevich 11.03.2022 08:37

Bitcoin fell 5.4% on Thursday, ending the day near $39.6K, and further to $38.9K on Friday morning, down 1% in 24 hours. Ethereum has remained almost unchanged over the same time (-0.3%), while other leading altcoins from the first are changing in different directions, from a 1.6% increase (XRP) to a 1% decrease (BNB). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market sank by 0.2% over the day to $1.74 trillion. The bitcoin dominance index continues to decline, falling from 42.7% yesterday to 42.4% due to the greater stability of altcoins. The crypto-currency index of fear and greed lost 6 points in a day to 22, again entering the territory of "extreme fear". Bitcoin fully returned the growth of Wednesday, which was caused by the adoption in the United States of the first document on the regulation of cryptocurrencies. The decline in stock indices and the growth of the dollar also did not favour the purchases of the first cryptocurrency, which often moves in unison with the general demand for risks. The first decree on cryptocurrencies signed the day before can become the basis for future US legislation on regulating relations in the crypto sphere. Against this background, the shares of companies associated with cryptocurrencies have noticeably risen in price. One of the largest investment banks, Goldman Sachs, is going to expand its offering for trading digital assets. The bank is exploring the possibility of launching bilateral crypto-currency options. World-famous investor and writer Robert Kiyosaki has warned that the world economy is now on the verge of hyperinflation and advised to "stay away" from the stock market. Against the backdrop of a severe crisis in the financial system of the Russian Federation and restrictions imposed on the circulation of the dollar and the euro, the demand of the population for cryptocurrency has increased sharply. Now it is primarily used for the transfer of capital abroad or for parking in "hard" currency. Analysts believe that regulators are unlikely to be able to effectively prevent such transactions. But the state is helped by crypto-exchanges, which block the Russians on their own initiative. There remain the possibilities of p2p platforms, that is, transfers between individuals. However, there are significant risks of fraud associated with such transactions.

Why lira is experiencing pressure now

Alex Kuptsikevich 11.03.2022 10:33

The Turkish lira has fallen back-to-back on each working day in March, having weakened against the US Dollar by 8.2% over this time and coming close to 15.0, where it was last seen in mid-December. The current development of the lira is reminiscent of the early October-November situation when we have seen a similar sustained decline, but the volatility (by the standards of the Turkish lira) has remained subdued. The pressure on the lira is due to the country's heavy reliance on imports of oil, gas, and agricultural commodities, mainly wheat. Turkey's Current Account deficit rose to 7.1bn in January from 3.8bn a month earlier. In February and early March, we see a gloomier picture in commodity prices, promising to put even more pressure on the balance of payments. The jump in the price of basic commodities has caused a decline in industrial production, and the situation could worsen in the coming months. The exchange rate, in this case, is a natural damping mechanism unless it is maintained artificially through currency interventions or severe capital controls. In Turkey, the second variant is now the case, but these controls merely stretch out the natural self-adjustment of the economy over time.

AUD/USD finds support near 0.7300 mark on Russian President Putin’s comments

FXStreet News 11.03.2022 13:37

AUD/USD witnessed fresh selling on Friday and snapped two successive days of the winning streak.Dovish remarks by RBA Governor Lowe, modest USD strength exerted some downward pressure.A goodish recovery in the risk sentiment helped limit further losses for the perceived riskier aussie.The AUD/USD pair recovered a few pips from the daily low, around the 0.7300 mark touched in the last hour and was last seen trading around the 0.7325 region.The pair struggled to capitalize on its gains recorded over the past two trading sessions and witnessed some selling on Friday in reaction to dovish-sounding remarks by the RBA Governor Philip Lowe. During his opening address to the Australian Banking Association, Lowe said that the RBA will not be pressured by financial markets to raise interest rates until prices are rising at a sustainable pace.Apart from this, some intraday US dollar buying exerted additional downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair. That said, hopes of a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine crisis lifted the global risk sentiment and acted as a headwind for the safe-haven greenback. The optimism was fueled by comments from Russian President Vladimir Putin, saying that there are certain positive shifts in talks with Ukraine.The latest developments triggered a goodish move up in the equity markets, which, in turn, extended some support to the perceived riskier aussie. The risk-on mood, along with firming expectations for an imminent start of the policy tightening by the Fed pushed the US Treasury bond yields higher. This should act as a tailwind for the USD and keep a lid on any meaningful upside for the AUD/USD pair.Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying before confirming a near-term bullish bias amid the risk of a further escalation in tensions between Russia and the West. In fact, US President Joe Biden is set to call for an end of normal trade relations with Russia later this Friday, alongside the Group of Seven nations and European Union leaders.

S&P 500 (SPX) Price - 200-Day And 50-Day Moving Averages Met

Alex Kuptsikevich 11.03.2022 14:05

The US S&P500 closed Thursday with a 0.4% drop, but the sustained downward trend since the beginning of the year has formed a “death cross”, a bearish signal of Tech analysis when the 50-day Moving Average crosses down the 200-day one. It is widely considered as a downtrend confirmation, followed by a further and faster market decline. However, this time the situation might be more optimistic, and there are several other indications, both from technical analysis and the news background. The history of the past ten years makes us wary of any signal that follows from a crossover of these averages. The “death cross” was most clearly triggered in August 2015 and December 2018, when this signal was followed by 12% and 16% drawdowns in the index in the following couple of weeks. The difference between those episodes and the current one is that back then, the market was stalling for a long time, with no strength for growth. This crossover has now taken place after a three-month correction. This trend brings the situation closer to 2020 when the market collapsed on the pandemic - the “black swan”. The war between Russia and Ukraine is the same black swan that accelerated and intensified the correction. In March 2020, and again almost two years later, the “cross” came after an impulsive decline and away from local lows. On the daily timeframes, another indicator, the Relative Strength Index, shows a waning of the downward momentum, as the new lows of the S&P500 index met the RSI at higher local lows. The broad market index found solid support at 76.4% Fibonacci in March from the rally from the pandemic bottom to the peaks of January. There are some fundamentally positive developments for the market. President Putin of Russia rather unexpectedly noted progress in the negotiations with Ukraine, while outside observers the day before stated the opposite. Also, Fed rhetoric has become much softer over the last month, and US lawmakers are more likely to agree on stimulus packages, supporting the demand for risky assets.

Now, That‘s Better

Monica Kingsley 11.03.2022 15:59

S&P 500 gave up the opening gains, but managed to close on a good note, in spite of credit markets not confirming. Given though the high volume characterizing HYG downswing and retreating crude oil, we may be in for a stock market led rebound today. It‘s that finally, value did much better yesterday than tech.CPI came red hot, but didn‘t beat expectations, yield curve remains flat as a pancake, and the commodity index didn‘t sell off too hard. It remains to be seen whether the miners‘ strength was for real or not – anyway, the yesterday discussed shallow $1,980 - $2,000 range consolidation still remains the most likely scenario. I just don‘t see PMs and commodities giving up a lion‘s share of the post Feb 24 gains next.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 can still turn around, and the odds of doing so successfully (till the closing bell today), have increased yesterday. The diminished volume points to no more sellers at this point while buyers are waiting on the sidelines.Credit MarketsHYG has only marginally closed below Tuesday‘s lows – corporate junk bonds can reverse higher without overcoming Wednesday‘s highs fast, which would still be constructive for a modest S&P 500 upswing.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are indeed refusing to swing lower too much – the sector remains excellently positioned for further gains. For now though, we‘re in a soft patch where the speculative fever is slowly coming out, including out of other commodities. Enter oil.Crude OilCrude oil still remains vulnerable, but would catch a bid quite fast here. Ideally, black gold wouldn‘t break down into the $105 - $100 zone next. I‘m looking for resilience kicking in soon.CopperCopper fake weakness is being reversed, and the red metal is well positioned not to break below Wednesday‘s lows. I‘m not looking for selloff continuation in the CRB Index either.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos remain undecided, and erring on the side of caution – this highlights that the risk appetite‘s return is far from universal.SummaryS&P 500 missed a good opportunity yesterday, but the short-term bullish case isn‘t lost. Stocks actually outperformed credit markets, and given the commodities respite and value doing well, bonds may very well join in the upswing, with a notable hesitation though. That wouldn‘t be a short-term obstacle, take it as the bulls temporarily overpowering the bears – I still think that the selling isn‘t over, and that the downswing would return in the latter half of Mar if (and that‘s a big if) the Fed‘s response to inflation doesn‘t underwhelm the market expectations that have been dialed back considerably over the last two weeks. Token 25bp rate hike, anyone? That wouldn‘t sink stocks dramatically...Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Natural Gas: When A Trade Plan Provides Consecutive Wins

Finance Press Release 11.03.2022 16:24

From time to time, we may want to consider volatility as an ally. After all, why would highly volatile markets necessarily mean more losing trades?The first target was hit – BOOM! Today – just before the weekend – it is time to bank some profits from my recent trade projections (provided on March 2). Since then, the trade plan has provided our dear subscribers with multiple bounces to trade the NYMEX Natural Gas Futures (April contract) in various ways, always depending on each one’s personal risk profile.The first possibility is the swing trading with trailing stop method explained in my famous risk management article.Trade entry triggered on Tuesday, March 8 (firm rebound on yellow band), stop lifted once price extends beyond mid-point (median) price between first target and entry, thus ending at $4.607 (black dotted line), given the market closed at its daily high of $4.704 (purple dotted line) that same day and assuming you entered that long trade at $4.550 (top of the yellow band). That was a quick one that lasted only a couple hours for the day traders who closed their trades at the regular market close (two candles later, see below chart). For the swing traders, the win-stop was triggered the next day (Wednesday) on the following pull-back. Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, hourly chart)The second option is to scale the rebounds with fixed targets (active or experienced traders).This method consists of “riding the tails” (or the shadows). To get a better grasp of this concept, let’s zoom out on a 4H-chart so you can see the multiple rebounds of the price characterized by the shadows (or tails) of candlesticks, where a crowd of bulls are placing buy orders around that yellow support zone, therefore squeezing bears by pushing prices towards the upside (like some sort of rope pulling game). This trading style often requires stops to be tighter with some profit-to-risk ratio greater than 1.5 (with usually fixed targets). Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, 4H chart)Third possibility: position trading. This is probably the most passive trading style, as it would suit everyone’s busy timetable (and be the most rewarding). This is usually the one we privilege at Sunshine Profits since it allows us to provide trade projections some time in advance for our patient sniper traders to lock in their trading targets and take sufficient time to assess the associated risk with each projection as part of a full trade plan (or flying map).Let’s zoom out again to spot our first target getting hit today on a daily chart so we can have an overall view of the next target to be locked in while lifting our stop to breakeven (entry), previous swing low ($4.450) or using an Average True Range (ATR) ratio as some of you may like to use:Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart)That’s all folks for today. Have a great weekend!Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Blockchain Gaming - Where NFT, RPG And Layer 2 Meet

Apple Co-Founder Speaks Of The Future Of Bitcoin Price

Alex Kuptsikevich 14.03.2022 08:42

Bitcoin has decreased over the past week by 0.9%, ending it at around $38,700. Yesterday, the decline continued, bringing the price to 38500. Ethereum lost 0.7% in 24 hours and added 1.5% in a week. Other leading altcoins from the top ten show mixed dynamics over 24 hours: from a decline of 3.8% (XRP) to a rise of 3.3% (Terra). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 14% in 24 hours, to $1.72 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index fell 0.1% to 42.4%. The FxPro Analyst Team emphasized that the Cryptocurrency fear and greed index added 2 points in a day to 23 and remains in "extreme fear" condition. In the first half of the past week, the first cryptocurrency tried to strengthen, testing five-day highs near $42,600. Later, BTC lost all gains, again being thrown back to support near $38,000. Pressure on all risky assets continues to be exerted due to the situation in Ukraine. One of the Apple founders, Steve Wozniak, said that bitcoin would reach $100,000, which will be facilitated by the general interest in cryptocurrency. At the same time, he has a negative attitude towards altcoins and non-fungible tokens (NFTs). The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has again rejected applications from the NYSE Arca and Cboe BZX Exchanges to create spot bitcoin ETFs due to non-compliance with US exchange law. El Salvador has announced that it will postpone the issuance of bonds in bitcoins in connection with the events in Eastern Europe. The received funds were planned to be used for the construction of the "Bitcoin City". Visiting the UAE, Russians massively sell cryptocurrency for billions of dollars. Earlier, FBI Director Christopher Wray emphasized that the United States has vast experience in tracking cryptocurrencies, and Russia will not be able to use them to circumvent sanctions.

Fed, COVID-19, Russia-Ukraine - There Are Several Factors Which Affect Chinese Stock Markets

Alex Kuptsikevich 14.03.2022 11:12

News from Ukraine remains the dominant topic on the financial markets but by no means the only one. Also noteworthy is the increased pressure on Chinese companies, which has intensified since February 17th, almost exactly one month ago. In that time, the Hang Seng has lost more than 20% and in Monday's trading was below 20,000 for the first time in six years. This is an important support area of the last ten years near which the market has previously found support. In all, the drop from the peak in February 2021 represents a fall of more than 40%. The pressure on the Chinese market is due to four factors simultaneously. Firstly, the military crisis in Ukraine is exacerbating logistical problems and causing higher prices for raw materials and agricultural products, which are hitting local companies and households far higher than in developed countries. Secondly, China remains committed to a zero-tolerance approach to COVID-19, once again closing multi-million-dollar areas to contain the outbreak. While Europe and the US are smoothly removing restrictions because of the pandemic, they are the toughest in China since 2020. Thirdly, there continues to be a mass exodus of investors due to fears of delisting several Chinese companies from US exchanges. The technology sector of Chinese companies is caught between a hammer and anvil as it previously faced regulatory pressure domestically and now has the biggest investor outflow. Fourth, even in peaceful times and without the regulatory guillotine, capital traditionally flees emerging markets in the early stages of a reversal in monetary policy. The first Fed rate hike since 2018 is expected this week. Higher inflation is shaping expectations that central banks will act more aggressively than previously anticipated, further shaking out weak players from the market. Those investors trying to see signs of a bottom forming in Chinese assets are likely to watch the market's reaction to comments from the Fed, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan later this week with heightened scrutiny. If regulators focus solely on fighting inflation, the sell-off promises to intensify. If there is more focus on financial stability risks and already observed tightening of financial conditions, we could see attempts to form a bottom.

Are Current Market Cycles Similar To The GFC Of 2007–2009?

Chris Vermeulen 14.03.2022 16:14

Soaring real estate, rising volatility, surging commodities and slumping stocks - Sound Familiar?This past week marked the 13th anniversary of the bottom of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2007-2009. The March 6, 2009 stock market low for the S&P 500 marked a staggering overall value loss of 51.9%.The GFC of 2007-09 resulted from excessive risk-taking by global financial institutions, which resulted in the bursting of the housing market bubble. This, in turn, led to a vast collapse of mortgage-back securities resulting in a dramatic worldwide financial reset.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! IS HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF?The following graph shows us that precious metals and energy outperform the stock market as the ‘Bull’ cycle reaches its maturity. The stock market is always the first to lead, the second being the economy, and the third, being the commodity markets. But history has shown that commodity markets can move up substantially as the stock market ‘Bull’ runs out of steam.The current commodities rally in Gold began August 2021, Crude Oil April 2020, and Wheat in January 2022. Interestingly we started seeing capital outflows in the SPY-SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF in early January 2022, and the DRN-Direxion Daily Real Estate Bull 3x Shares ETF starting back in late December 2021.LET’S SEE WHAT HAPPENED TO THE STOCK AND COMMODITY MARKETS IN 2007-2008SPY - SPDR S&P 500 TRUST ETFFrom August 17, 2007 to July 3, 2008: SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust depreciated -20.12%The State Street Corporation designed SPY for investors who want a cost-effective and convenient way to invest in the price and yield performance of the S&P 500 Stock Index. According to State Street’s website www.ssga.com, the Benchmark, the S&P 500 Index, comprises selected stocks from five hundred (500) issuers, all of which are listed on national stock exchanges and span over approximately 24 separate industry groups.DBC – INVESCO DB COMMODITY INDEX TRACING FUND ETFFrom August 17 2007 to July 3, 2008: Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund appreciated +96.81%Invesco designed DBC for investors who want a cost-effective and convenient way to invest in commodity futures. According to Invesco’s website www.invesco.com, the Index is a rules-based index composed of futures contracts on 14 of the most heavily traded and important physical commodities in the world.BE ALERT: THE US FEDERAL RESERVE POLICY MEETING IS THIS WEEK!In February, the inflation rate rose to 7.9% as food and energy costs pushed prices to their highest level in more than 40 years. If we exclude food and energy, core inflation still rose 6.4%, which was the highest since August 1982. Gasoline, groceries, and housing were the most significant contributors to the CPI gain. The consumer price index is the price of a weighted average market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households.The FED was expected to raise interest rates by as much as 50 basis points at its policy meeting this week, March 15-16. However, given the recent world events of the Russia – Ukraine war in Europe, the FED may decide to be more cautious and raise rates by only 25 basis points.HOW WILL RISING INTEREST RATES AFFECT THE STOCK MARKET?As interest rates rise, the cost of borrowing becomes more expensive. Rising interest rates tend to affect the market immediately, while it may take about 9-12 months for the rest of the economy to see any widespread impact. Higher interest rates are generally negative for stocks, with the exception of the financial sector.WILL RISING INTEREST RATES BURST OUR HOUSING BUBBLE?It is too soon to tell exactly what the impact of rising interest rates will be regarding housing. It is worth noting that in a thriving economy, consumers continue buying. However, in our current economy, where the consumers' monthly payment is not keeping up with the price of gasoline and food, it is more likely to experience a leveling off of residential prices or even the risk of a 2007-2009 repeat of price depreciation.THE POTENTIAL FOR OUTSIZED GAINS IN A BEAR MARKET ARE 7X GREATER THAN A BULL MARKET!The average bull market lasts 2.7 years. From the March low of 2009, the current bull market has established a new record as the longest-running bull market at 12 years and nine months. The average bear market lasts just under ten months, while a few have lasted for several years. It is worth noting that bear markets tend to fall 7x faster than bull markets go up. Bear markets also reflect elevated levels of volatility and investor emotions which contribute significantly to the velocity of the market drop.WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE CURRENT MARKET TRENDS?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24 months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe we are seeing the markets beginning to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into metals, commodities, and other safe havens.IT'S TIME TO GET PREPARED FOR THE COMING STORM; UNDERSTAND HOW TO NAVIGATE THESE TYPES OF MARKETS!I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Is It Time for Brent and WTI Crude Oil Futures to Correct Lower?

Finance Press Release 14.03.2022 17:05

Crude oil prices are slipping from their recent highest levels. Where could we see the next support located?Oil prices fell sharply on Monday – extending last week’s decline – driven by potential progress in Ukraine-Russia talks.India is considering taking advantage of Russia's discounted crude oil and other commodities offers by settling transactions through the rupee/ruble payment system. Meanwhile, on the eastern side, there is a rush to replace the Russian barrels in the west, but immediate availability is limited.In addition, some fears that OPEC+ countries might not be able to easily increase supply remain, even though the UAE said last week that OPEC+ could double the output to the market (about 800,000 bpd) very quickly. However, this sounds very challenging since OPEC+ countries have already struggled to bring in 400,000 bbd.On the Asian side, a slowdown in demand could have been seen as 17 million residents in Shenzhen, the technological centre of southern China, were locked down on Sunday after reports of epidemic outbreaks linked to the neighbouring territory of Hong Kong, where the Omicron strain seems to have spread. There are growing fears that other cities could follow suit to comply with the country's strict zero-COVID policy, adopted by the government of the People's Republic of China.WTI Crude Oil (CLJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart)Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 8/3/2022

Purple Trading 14.03.2022 16:01

Tesla CEO Elon Musk To Save His Bitcoins And Other Crypto

Alex Kuptsikevich 15.03.2022 08:36

Bitcoin slightly strengthened over the past day to 38,800 (+0.5%). Ethereum lost 0.8%, while other leading altcoins from the top ten range showed an amplitude from -2.4% (Avalanche) to +3.7% (Terra). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market grew by 0.4% in 24 hours, to $1.73 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index rose 0.3 points to 42.7%. The fear and greed index is at 21 (-2 points) now and is remaining in a state of "extreme fear". The FxPro Analyst Team emphasized that Bitcoin updated its weekly lows around $37,500 today. Subsequently, the first cryptocurrency bounced up, briefly rising above $39,300 in the middle of the day on the news from Elon Musk. The CEO of Tesla said he had no plans to sell his cryptocurrencies. Musk tweeted that he owns not only Bitcoin but also ETH and DOGE. However, BTC did not show a strong reaction to this statement: during the American session, it levelled a slight increase against the backdrop of a fall in US stock indices. Dogecoin reacted to Musk's comment much more violently, jumping more than 7% at the time. According to CoinShares, institutional investors withdrew about $110 million from crypto funds last week, despite seeing the largest capital inflow in three months the week earlier. The European Union abandoned plans to introduce a virtual ban on mining based on the Proof-of-Work (PoW) mechanism. At the same time, Russian State Duma deputy Alexander Yakubovsky said that Russia has a real opportunity to create its own crypto exchanges.

So... Will The Bank Of England (BoE) Raise The Interest Rate?

Alex Kuptsikevich 15.03.2022 09:07

The UK economy continues to show strength in the January-February economic reports. A fresh batch of data noted a fall in the number of people receiving unemployment benefits of 48.1k last month. The January statistics have improved and now show a fall in those receiving benefits from -31.9k to -67.3k. Wage growth continues to gain momentum to 4.8% against 4.6%. This data reinforces the view of the UK finance minister. Rishi Sunak expressed confidence that the labour market is in good shape and that the economy will cope with the challenges ahead. The confidence of UK officials should also be taken as a signal that the Bank of England might decide to accelerate its tightening. Market participants, on average, expect the third hike of 25 points on the coming Thursday. However, in light of the strong labour market and wage growth figures, combined with actual and expected price rises, the Bank of England could decide on a move of 50 points at once. The central bank had previously warned that it might take such a step. If the Bank of England hikes the rate from 0.5% to 1.0%, it could support the Pound markedly. Its appreciation would further reduce inflationary pressures from import prices and stabilise the economy as quickly as possible.

Buying Gold: ugly short-term deal, promising for long-term

Alex Kuptsikevich 15.03.2022 11:09

Gold is losing another 1% on Tuesday, pulling back to $1933. Exactly one week ago, quotes were soaring towards $2070, but they have been in a steady downward trend since then. The short-term charts clearly show the even pressure crystallising since March 10th. It may seem illogical that the gold price is down, pending reliable signs of military de-escalation. Rampant inflation should also contribute to the demand for Gold as protection against capital depreciation. The answer to this question seems to be sought in the altered gold supply balance. Likely, the Bank of Russia is now actively selling Gold from its reserves, both domestically and using the remaining means to do so abroad. In the short term, this creates an impressive market overhang, despite data confirming that exchange-traded funds have built up their holdings in the metal to a record. If the current trend develops, the price of Gold could deflate into the $1850-1870 area, where it was before Russian troops entered Ukraine. That said, buying Gold remains a prudent long-term strategy. Geopolitical instability forms the risks of a slowdown in the economy, which will deter the Fed and other major central banks from tightening policy. A 25-point rate hike is expected from the Fed this week, although the markets gave more than a 60% chance of a 50-point hike in the first weeks of the year. In the meantime, the current and expected price situation has only worsened, accelerating the actual depreciation of assets. Looking ahead to the next few months, a very supportive environment remains for gold prices up to around $2,500. The marginal forecasts of a new round of gold growth are also becoming more evident, echoing the dynamic of the 1970s, as the energy and food markets are now in a very similar position. If this holds true, the price could soar several times in the next several years.

Binance Academy summarise year 2022 featuring The Merge, FTX and more

Crypto Prices: Bitcoin (BTC) Gained 1.4%, ETH Increased By 3.1%, Polkadot (DOT) Went Up By 4.5% And Terra Decreased (-6%)

Alex Kuptsikevich 16.03.2022 08:30

BTC added 1.4% over the past day to $39.3K. Attempts to develop an offensive ran into a selling wall. The most important line of defense in the first cryptocurrency at the 38.0K area is still more confident withstanding all bear attacks. Ethereum added 3.1% to $2.6K in 24 hours. Other leading altcoins range from a 6% decline (Terra) to a 4.5% rise (Polkadot). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market grew by 1.4%, to $1.75 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index lost 0.1 percentage points to 42.6%. Cryptocurrency fear and greed index added 3 points to 24, although it remains in the territory of "extreme fear". The FxPro Analyst Team mentioned that during the Asian session, there was a sharp jump in the rate from $39.2K to $41.7K, followed by an almost equally rapid pullback to the area below $39.0K. Stop orders were triggered in the morning low-liquid market, but it is clear that the selling pressure remains huge. In fact, since February 10, the rises in the Bitcoin rate have become less and less long and end at ever lower levels. The reason for the jump in prices in early trading in Asia was the statements of official Beijing on support for the markets, which caused a rally in the shares of the region. However, Bitcoin frankly ignored the drawdown of Asian stocks in recent days, so it quickly returned to its place, because other factors have become its key drivers in recent days. Meanwhile, Glassnode believes that bitcoin investors may face a final capitulation. This is indicated by the high proportion of "unprofitable" coins among short-term holders. At the same time, the uncertainty associated with geopolitics and the Fed rate weakened the accumulation of BTC by hodlers and caused an increase in sales on their part.

Oil Prices Keep Falling. Is It Time to Get Long on Black Gold?

Sebastian Bischeri 16.03.2022 16:43

Crude oil continues to decline due to lowered demand, and the petrodollar seems threatened, losing interest. What is the best strategy to take now? Oil prices kept falling this week, driven by potential progress in Ukraine-Russia talks and a potential slowdown in the Giant Panda’s (China) economic growth due to epidemic lockdowns in some regions where a surge of Omicron was observed. As I mentioned in my previous article, India considers getting Russian crude oil supplies and other commodities at a reduced price by settling transactions through a rupee/rouble payment system. Meanwhile, we keep getting rumors – notably reported by The Wall Street Journal – that Saudi Arabia and China are also currently discussing pricing some Saudi oil exports directly in yuan. The Chinese are actively seeking to dethrone the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, and this latest development suggests that the petrodollar is now under threat. US Dollar Currency Index (DXY) CFD (daily chart) The recent correction in crude oil, happening just seven days after reaching its 14-year highs, might show some signs that the conflict in Ukraine will slow down consumption. On the other hand, if Iranian and Venezuelan barrels flooded the market, we could see crude oil, petroleum products, and distillates turning into new bear markets. WTI Crude Oil (CLJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Brent Crude Oil (BRNK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart) RBOB Gasoline (RBJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) That’s all folks for today – happy trading! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Binance Academy: Non-fungible Tokens: $69 Millions For An NFT!? NFT - What Is It?

Non-fungible Token Of Instagram!? Bitcoin (BTC) Trades Quite High

Alex Kuptsikevich 17.03.2022 08:53

Instagram will implement NFT in a couple of months, Meta founder Mark Zuckerberg said. Despite the loud statement, it should be noted that all of Zuckerberg's projects related to digital assets previously failed and did not find wide support from the digital community. The head of Meta has a good sense of trends of social networks, augmented reality or metaverses, and in the latter two, there are more and more fast-growing projects. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is up nearly 4% over the past 24 hours to $41K. Ethereum added 4.7% to $2.75K, while Terra is out of the range, losing 0.6% in 24 hours, and other leading altcoins from the top ten add from 3.5% (XRP) to 9.8% (Avalanche). The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, grew by 4% over the day, to $1.82 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index rose 0.2 points to 42.8%. The crypto-currency index of fear and greed added 3 more points in a day, to 27, moving from extreme anxiety to just fear. The FxPro Analyst Team mentioned that demand for bitcoin was supported by it rising for the second day in a row. It was helped by the strengthening of stock indices and the weakening of the dollar. On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve raised rates by 0.25%, but the comments made by market participants seemed softer than expected, which caused the dollar to fall. According to Glassnode, $1.2 billion worth of bitcoin was withdrawn from the Coinbase crypto exchange in just a week. This is the largest net outflow since July 2017, which signals the mood of investors for long-term storage of the asset. Despite the positive dynamics in recent days, Bitcoin has been trading in a sideways range between $37K and $42K for almost the entire month of March, unable to choose a further direction. Since the last days of February, there has been a solid support line on the declines under $38K. And this is bullish strength, reflecting that long-term buyer interest has migrated from $30K to $38K due to inflation and geopolitical tensions. Such a migration of the level of interest to long-term buyers fully reflects the price jump, which is the actual depreciation of the value of fiat currencies.

The Commodities Feed: Anticipating LNG Strike Action and Market Dynamics

AMC Stock Price: AMC Entertainment spikes 8% on Wednesday

FXStreet News 17.03.2022 08:29

AMC stock gains on Tuesday as equities and growth stocks rally. More gains are likely on Wednesday for AMC shares as peace hopes rise for Ukraine. AMC Entertainment also saw increased attention from its investment in Hycroft Mining. AMC shares are up 8% to $15.65 as better prospects for peace in Ukraine seem to be lifting up the entire market. The Nasdaq has risen an optimistic 2.7% about one hour into Wednesday's session. Further positivity is in motion with the start of the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee two-day meeting that is expected to usher in a 25 basis point rise in the fed funds rate. The rise in interest rates should slow this year's hike in inflation. This price action is certainly exciting for AMC apes, who have witnessed AMC stock drop to the low $13s earlier this week. AMC Entertainment did benefit in Tuesday's afternoon session from its acquisition of Hycroft Mining, but it seems the stock is gaining more interest on Wednesday for this buy. Now its acquisition target, HYMC, has seen its shares go in the opposite direction on Wednesday. HYMC stock is trading down 9% at $1.37 at the time of writing. AMC stock closed higher on Tuesday as investors took comfort from the continued collapse in oil prices and hoped for some form of peace in Ukraine. It was oil that was the big driver for equity markets, and growth stock, in particular, bounced hard as this sector had seen the bigger losses since the year began. It is hard to see guess whether this movie can be sustained long term though as yields have once again moved up. This should stall growth stocks. A peace deal would see further gains for all sectors, but then these may be capped if yields keep rising. The Fed decision later on Wednesday will give us more clarity on this. AMC Stock News The big news yesterday though for AMC apes was the investment in Hycroft Mining by AMC. This was right out of left field and remains a puzzling one to say the least. Hycroft Mining is a gold and silver miner with one mine in Nevada. The company has not turned a profit since 2013 and last November said it may need to raise capital to meet future financial obligations. The company also laid off over half of its workforce at the mine last November. This is a pretty high-risk investment and perhaps AMC and AMC apes are used to that. It was only a small outlet as CEO adam Aron alluded to. Nevertheless, the Hycroft Mining (HYMC) stock price soared as retail investors piled into the name. By the opening of the regular session on Tuesday, HYMC stock was trading nearly 100% higher, but it closed only 9% higher at $1.52 having traded up to $2.97. The reason for the dramatic turnaround was probably a bit of reality set into investors once they had a look at Hycroft Mining and its financial condition. The main reason was a Bloomberg report saying that Hycroft Mining could do a $500 million share sale by as early as next Tuesday. We understand the sale is ongoing and being led by B.Riley Securities. AMC Stock Forecast We were quite negative on this deal on Tuesday and remain so. At least it is not a big investment for AMC, but it still reads poorly. This will not endear AMC stock to further credibility in our view. CNBC carried out a report yesterday about the surge in price and volume trading in HYMC stock before the AMC announcement: "Small mining firm with troubled history saw big spikes in stock price, trading volume ahead of AMC deal." Tuesday's move took AMC back up to our resistance level at $14.54, which was a key breakdown level. Below this and AMC remains bearish. Above $14.54 is neutral. We remain bearish on AMC with a target price of $8.95. AMC stock chart, daily Prior Update: AMC stock opened higher on Wednesday as the stock market remains on edge over the potential for some form of a peace deal in Ukraine. Oil prices falling sharply has also helped investor sentiment. AMC is currently trading at $14.77 for a gain of exactly 2% after 5 minutes of the regular session on Tuesday. Hycroft Mining (HYMC) stock is trading 4% lower at the same stage on Wednesday. Later we get the Fed interest rate decision which may hamper more progress from growth stocks but for now, it is full steam ahead. AMC is back among the top trending stocks on social media sites and interest seems high. $14.54 remains a key level for AMC to hold above if it wants to have put a bottom formation in place. Otherwise, it will return to the bearish trend and look to target $8.95 in our view.

Commodities: EU Members Manage To Agree On Price Caps For Russian Oil

Crude Oil Price (BRENT/WTI) - Will Current Levels Remain Longer?

Alex Kuptsikevich 17.03.2022 09:57

The price of oil has stabilised at $93 per barrel for WTI and $95 for Brent, after falling by more than a quarter from March 8th. Buyers’ support came on a correction to levels at the beginning of this month, completely cutting off the speculative upside due to events in Europe and fears of a supply stoppage. Due to correction over the past week, the price has returned to the uptrend support line formed in December. The market is pricing as if there was no military conflict in Europe and fears of a total oil shortage due to the embargo on Russian oil. Initially, this uptrend had formed on evidence that the omicron strain wave was not followed by lockdowns, so demand continues to rise gradually. Interestingly, neither a 350% increase in the price per barrel in precisely two years, a 17% fall in commercial reserves over one year, nor the need to compensate for oil from Russia contributes to US production growth. US average daily production has held steady at 11.6m b/d for the last six weeks, which is close to the average over the previous six months. The observed increase in drilling activity only helps cover the drop in production from depleted fields. However, businesses in the USA remain reluctant to invest in production increases. This is probably due to the ongoing tough ESG agenda, which is holding back investment in an industry that was producing over 13 million BPD in early 2020. Without the coronavirus, it would have reached 14 million BPD by the end of that year. On the other hand, the US and global economies are experiencing an evident shock to energy prices, causing economic growth to slow and oil demand to fall. This situation sets the oil price in the coming days or weeks to find a balance in the $85-100 range. The lower bound is a multi-year turning point for the price in this range, which has now become a meaningful support level. At the same time, the upper bound is a psychologically crucial round level, the capture of which made the oil market wild in early March.

The release of Chinese GDP, Bank of Canada interest rate decision and more - InstaForex talks the following week (part I)

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Has Increased Significantly Yesterday

Chris Vermeulen 17.03.2022 13:08

THE SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX HAS DROPPED MORE THAN 40% FROM ITS PEAK IN JUST 2 ½ MONTHS! China Stocks: This morning bottom pickers around the globe are snatching up what they believe to be “bargain basement priced stocks” as the Hang Seng Index gained 9.1% during today’s March 16, 2022 trading session. It was the best day for the HSI since the 2008 financial crisis as the Chinese government pledged to support markets. Tensions are running high as Chinese nickel giant Tsingshan Holding Group, the world’s biggest producer of nickel used in stainless steel and electric-vehicle batteries was sitting on $8 billion in trading losses. According to the Wall Street Journal on March 9, 2022 “The London Metal Exchange suspended the nickel market early last Tuesday, the first time it had paused trading in a metal contract since the collapse of an international tin cartel in 1985. The decision followed a near doubling in prices over a few hours.” ETFs CAN BE USED SPECIFICALLY FOR SEASONS AND DIRECTION! According to Statista www.statista.com on January 11, 2022, the assets managed by ETFs globally amounted to approximately 7.74 trillion U.S. dollars in 2020. With more than 8,000 ETFs to choose from, you can find just about any flavor you need or are looking for. A Kondratieff Wave is a long-term economic cycle that consists of four sub-cycles or phases that are also known as Kondratieff Seasons. This theory was founded by Nikolai D. Kondratieff 1892-1938 (also spelled “Kondratiev”), a communist Russia-era economist who noticed agricultural commodities and metals experienced long-term cycles. The following graph illustrates both the inflation cycle as well as the best investments for each season. The Kondratieff Seasons act as a general guide and each investment has their own specific bull or bear market cycle. ETFs CAN OFFER YOU PROTECTION AND AGILITY IN A BULL OR BEAR MARKET! The following ETFs are not a recommendation to buy or sell but simply an illustration to emphasize the utilization of selecting an ETF for capital protection or potential appreciation in either a rising ‘BULL’ or falling ‘BEAR’ market. YINN – DIREXION DAILY FTSE CHINA STOCKS BULL 3X SHARES ETF From February 17, 2021, to March 14, 2022 the Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3x Shares ETF ‘YINN’ lost -90.78%. Target Index: The FTSE China 50 Index (TXINOUNU) consists of the 50 largest and most liquid public Chinese companies currently trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as determined by the FTSE/Russell. Constituents in the Index are weighted based on total market value so that companies with larger total market values will generally have a greater weight in the Index. Index constituents are screened for liquidity, and weightings are capped to limit the concentration of any one stock in the Index. However, one cannot directly invest in an index. According to Direxion’s website www.direxion.com, Leveraged and Inverse ETFs pursue leveraged investment objectives, which means they are riskier than alternatives that do not use leverage. They seek daily goals and should not be expected to track the underlying index over periods longer than one day. They are not suitable for all investors and should be utilized only by investors who understand leverage risk and who actively manage their investments. YANG – DIREXION DAILY FTSE CHINA STOCKS BEAR 3X SHARES ETF From February 17, 2021, to March 14, 2022, The Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3x Shares ETF gained +418.38%. The rates of return shown for the YINN and YANG ETFs are not precise in that they are an estimation as displayed on a chart utilizing the charts measurement tool to emphasize my talking point. Sign up for my free Trading Newsletter to navigate potential major market opportunities! ALERT: THE US FEDERAL RESERVE INTEREST RATE WAS RASIED A QUARTER POINT! In February, the inflation rate rose to 7.9% as food and energy costs pushed prices to their highest level in more than 40 years. If we exclude food and energy, core inflation still rose 6.4%, which was still the highest since August 1982. Gasoline, groceries, and housing were the biggest contributors to the CPI gain. The FED was expected to raise interest rates by as much as 50 basis points. However, investors are speculating that due to the Russia – Ukraine war, the FED may be more cautious and raise rates by only 25 basis points. WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS with US and CHINA STOCKS? Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24 months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe we are seeing the markets beginning to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into metals, commodities, and other safe-havens. UNDERSTAND HOW TO NAVIGATE OUR VOLATILE MARKETS! GET READY, GET SET, GO -I invite you to learn more about how my three ETF Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

UK: Interest Rate Is 25bps Higher, The GBPUSD Chart Shows A Big Decline

Alex Kuptsikevich 17.03.2022 15:02

The Bank of England raised the rate by 25 points to 0.75%. Such a move was, on average, predicted by market analysts. However, reports that one member of the Bank of England voted to maintain the rate was seen as less confidence in further hikes. The Bank’s deputy governor Jon Cunliffe voted against a rate hike, noting the risks of falling demand due to a jump in commodity prices. This vote against caused GBPUSD to immediately fall more than 120 pips, briefly sending GBPUSD below 1.3090. However, the weakening pound supported the stock market, bringing the FTSE100 back to its opening levels, in contrast to the declines in most foreign indices. Earlier, the FOMC made less harsh comments on interest rates than the market expected to see. The Bank of England, like the Fed yesterday, raised its inflation forecasts considerably and pushed back the forecast peak further, given the latest price hike. Like after the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed and the Bank of England are leaving the economy at the forefront in an attempt to tighten policy. The currency market was ready to see more determination in raising rates. The current measured approach forms a more favourable environment for financial markets than expected at the start of March.

How To Use A 'Collar' To Protect Your Portfolio Against Losses

Chris Vermeulen 17.03.2022 15:55

How can we protect our portfolio against losses when stocks are in a correction? Or even if stocks are not currently in a correction? There are many schools of thought on that. One way is to close positions and wait for more bullish times on the sidelines. But that may not be the best choice for any number of reasons.Perhaps you are bullish on a stock position long-term and don’t want to sell it. Maybe you already have a nice gain on your shares but are worried about a further decline. Or perhaps there’s a dividend that you would like to continue to collect. Simple Portfolio “Insurance”One relatively straightforward way to protect open stock positions is to buy Put protection. Puts are option contracts that have an inverse correlation to price. If the shares go down in price, the value of the Put will increase, thereby providing some offset to losses in the underlying stock. The tradeoff is that Puts come at an out-of-pocket cost, and they expire. There’s a cost to carry to have that “insurance” in place.Taking it a Step Further with a “Collar”A Collar can be an effective strategy to ensure against significant losses. A common way to offset the cost of purchasing protective Puts is to implement a Collar strategy using options.Calls are option contracts that increase in value when the underlying shares go up in value. We can sell Calls against our long stock and collect a premium. That’s a simple Covered Call strategy. But in itself, we get no downside protection on our shares other than the amount of the premium collected for selling the Calls.We can take that a step further by using the premium collected from selling the Calls to purchase protective Puts. That’s known as a Collar. And depending on the option strike prices and duration, we may be able to do that for a net credit and put a little extra profit in our pocket.Putting on a CollarSince options contracts control 100 shares per contract, the number of shares you want to protect determines the number of contracts. Say you have 1,000 shares. In that case, the Collar position would consist of 10 short Calls and 10 long Puts. Here’s a P/L graph of a Collar on AAPL. In this example, the stock is at $160. A $170 Call is sold for $1.25, and a $140 Put is purchased at $1.00. A Net credit of $0.25 is collected when the position is put on. Both options are 30 days to expiration (DTE). The TradeoffsWhile it’s tempting to think of the Collar as a way to get “free” Put protection, there are some tradeoffs. By selling Calls, we are limiting our upside. In the example above, we could have a $10 gain to the upside. We’d also get to keep any net premiums collected, another $0.25 per share. But because we’re obligated to provide shares at $170, we have capped our profit potential.The Collar also only gives us partial protection to the downside. Options also have a limited life and expire. What Happens at Expiration?If the share price is above our Call strike price at expiration, we’re likely to have our shares “called away” – meaning we’ll be obligated to sell our shares at the strike price, $170 in this example. But we could also extend the duration by rolling that Call out for additional credit. As long as there are more than a few cents of time value in our short Call, we’re less likely to have it exercised even if it is in-the-money (ITM). If our counterparty wanted to close their position, as long as there’s time value left in the option, they would be better off to sell their long Call rather than exercise it against us.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! If the share price is between our Call and Put strike prices at expiration, those options expire worthlessly, and we’re left with our stock as before.If the share price has dropped below our Put strike, we would want to either sell the Put or exercise it. We could “put” the stock to our counterparty at $140 per share. Alternately, we could sell the Put and continue to hold onto our shares.The best case is for the options to expire with the share price just below the Call strike price. In that case, both the Puts and the Calls expire worthlessly, and we get to keep our shares. We are then free to sell shares at a profit or keep them and apply another Collar further out in time.SummaryIf you own shares that you don’t want to sell, consider putting on a Collar using options to give you some downside protection. A Collar entails selling calls against your shares and using the premium collected to purchase puts for downside protection. The tradeoff is your upside is limited. But you get to hold onto your shares to continue to collect dividends (if any), all while having long Puts in place for downside protection.Read On To Learn More About Options TradingEvery day on Options Trading Signals, we do defined risk trades that protect us from black swan events 24/7. Many may think that is what stop losses are for. Well, remember the markets are only open about 1/3 of the hours in a day. Therefore, a stop loss only protects you for 1/3 of each day. Stocks can gap up or down. With options, you are always protected because we do defined risk in a spread. We cover with multiple legs, which are always on once you own. If you are new to trading or have been trading stock but are interested in options, you can find more information at The Technical Traders – Options Trading Signals Service. The head Options Trading Specialist Brian Benson, who has been trading options for almost 20 years, sends out real live trade alerts on actual trades, such as TSLA and NVDA, with real money. Ready to subscribe, click here: TheTechnicalTraders.com.Enjoy your day!

The Bitcoin Market Is Now Developing The Corrective Cycle To The Downside

Bitcoin Price Prediction - $500k Level In A Few Years Time?

Alex Kuptsikevich 18.03.2022 09:00

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, known for his bullish predictions, has unveiled a new one that sees BTC hit $500,000 in 2025. Should we believe in that? No sharp movements According to the Santiment team, Bitcoin whale activity has fallen to its lowest level in a year in recent days. Therefore, one should not expect sharp movements in the market soon. In confirmation of this, Bitcoin is down only 0.4% over the past 24 hours to $40.7K. Ethereum has added 1.5% over the same time, other leading altcoins from the top ten are changing from -2.0% (Terra) to 5% (Avalanche). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market grew by 0.3% over the day, to $1.83 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index decreased by 0.4% to 42.4% due to the better dynamics of altcoins. The crypto-currency index of fear and greed lost 2 points to 25 in a day and again found itself in a state of "extreme fear". In searching of the bottom Despite the outstripping dynamics of altcoins, a sequence of lower and lower local highs continues to form in Bitcoin. In early February, the upside lost momentum as it moved above $45.5K. In the first days of March, the bears already dominated on the way to $45K, on the 8th already near $42.5K, and in the last two days they are trying to form a downward reversal at $41.5K. At the same time, the bulls manage to form a strong support near $38K. The FxPro Analyst Team emphasized that in terms of technical analysis, BTCUSD remains close to its 50-day moving average, clearly indicating the absence of any trend now. However, a consolidation in a descending triangle is usually a respite before the next decline. We will see the implementation of this scenario if BTCUSD fixes under $38K. An alternative scenario and a new upside momentum should be expected if the bulls manage to push the price above the previous highs of $42.5K, or close the day/week above $42K. News to consider Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, known for his bullish predictions, has unveiled a new one that sees BTC hit $500,000 in 2025. The State Russian Duma urged to speed up the launch of the cryptoruble in order to better bypass Western sanctions. Meanwhile, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation recommended that banks strengthen control over the operations of clients related to cryptocurrencies.

(SPX) S&P 500 Reaches $4400 Level - Stock Markets Supported By Several Factors

Alex Kuptsikevich 18.03.2022 11:05

The global equity market also continues to thaw after a pronounced decline since the start of the year. Initial reports of progress on the peace talks were later supported by indications that the US and China are looking to reduce friction between them and avoid new threats against each other. In addition, reassurances from the world’s major central banks over the past week sounded very encouraging. As a result, the Fear and Greed Index has moved out of the extreme fear territory, having bottomed out last week at levels last seen in March 2020. A return to territory above 20 for the index would typically mean a reversal to growth. One should note the increasing divergence between the S&P500 price and the Relative Strength Index, where since late January, S&P500’s lower lows has been marked by RSI’s higher low. The S&P500 has bounced back from its lows by almost 6% and is now testing the 50-day moving average. A consolidation above 4400 would signal the start of a broader, more powerful rally. Now it looks like the bravest already bought when there was “blood on the streets”; now, it is time for a broader range of buyers to step in. Gold and oil prices remain indicators of the military stand-off between Russia and Ukraine. Signs that progress in talks has stalled have put prices of these assets back on an upward trajectory. Brent crude oil was trading more than 11% above levels at the end of trading on March 16 at the start of the day on Friday. A glance at the chart suggests that technically quotations remain within the uptrend that began back in December. This is in line with the supposed progress in de-escalation between Russia and Ukraine. In our view, it is already worth noting that fears over energy supplies are no longer panic-driven but more constructive, lengthening the forecast horizon.

Sanctions On Russia Can Help MXNUSD As Mexican Crude Oil Might Be Imported By The USA

Alex Kuptsikevich 18.03.2022 15:55

The Mexican dollar has added more than 4% over the last nine days against the US dollar. The upward momentum in this rally is followed by a brief correction but without any noticeable pullback. At first glance, this rally does not seem logical, as oil is cheap for most of this time, hurting oil-exporting Mexico. Nevertheless, in the short term, the MXN has been steadily gaining the following signs of a recovery in demand for risky assets in global markets. Mexico, like the US, finds itself far away from the military conflict in eastern Europe, so the impact on its economy will be much more indirect. Moreover, in the medium term, Mexico will also benefit from the US' rejection of oil from Russia. The states need heavier oil than their own WTI. The cocktail needed for refineries used to be made from Venezuelan oil, which was then replaced by Russian crude. Now the replacements will be Canadian and Mexican, which should benefit production levels and support MXN's strength through higher export revenues. In the coming days, the USDMXN will head for another test of 20.0. Below this level, the pair could not sustainably consolidate in 2021. If this situation proves sustainable, the Bank of Mexico will have more room to fight inflation through policy tightening without fear of strangling the economy too much. If so, the USDMXN may only be in the middle of its strengthening against the dollar, which could last for several quarters.

Natural Gas Hits Its Final Target. The Luck of St. Patrick’s Day?

Sebastian Bischeri 18.03.2022 17:14

St. Patrick’s Day is historically considered among the best trading days. Apparently, judging by the results, it may have brought some luck to natural gas. If you are interested in looking at the stats, an article by Market Watch summed them up. The second target hit – BOOM! Yesterday, on St. Patrick's Day, the opportunity to bank the extra profits from my recent Nat-Gas trade projections (provided on March 2) finally arrived. That trade plan has provided traders with multiple bounces to trade the NYMEX Natural Gas Futures (April contract) in various ways, always depending on each one’s personal risk profile. To get some more explanatory details on understanding the different trading ways this fly map (trading plan) could offer, I invite you to read my previous article (from March 11). To quickly sum it up, the various trade opportunities that could be played were as follows (with the following captures taken on March 11): The first possibility is swing trading, with the trailing stop method explained in my famous risk management article. Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, hourly chart) The second option consisted of scalping the rebounds with fixed targets (active or experienced traders). I named this method “riding the tails” (or the shadows). Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, 4H chart) The third way is position trading – a more passive trading style (and usually more rewarding). Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) The chart below shows a good overall view of NYMEX Natural Gas hitting our final target, $4.860: Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, 4H chart) As you can see, the market has provided us with multiple entries into the same support zone (highlighted by the yellow band) – even after hitting the first target, you may have noticed that I maintained the entry conditions in place – after the suggestion to drag the stop up just below the new swing low ($4.450). The market, still in a bull run, got very close to that point on March 15 by making a new swing low at $4.459 (just about 10 ticks above it). Before that, it firmly rebounded once more (allowing a new/additional entry) and then extended its gains further away while consecutively hitting target 1 ($4.745) again. After that, it finally hit target 2 ($4.860)! That’s all folks for today. It is time to succesfully close this trade. Have a great weekend! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Can Bitcoin (BTC) Become An Alternative To... Gold? BTC Increased By 6.3% And Reached Ca. $41.3k

Alex Kuptsikevich 21.03.2022 09:33

Bitcoin gained 6.3% over the past week, finishing near $41.3K. The price retreated slightly to $41.0K on Monday morning, losing 2.1% over the last 24 hours. Ethereum has corrected by 2% over the same period but still added 11.6% to the price seven days ago. Other leading altcoins in the top 10 have gained between 7.3% (Polkadot) and 24.8% (Avalanche) over the past week. Total cryptocurrency market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, rose 7.5% for the week to $1.86 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index fell 0.6 points to 41.9% due to outperforming altcoins. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index rose 7 points for the week to 30 and moved into "fear" from "extreme fear". Last week turned out to be a good one for the crypto market, with bitcoin rising the most in six weeks. Last Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve meeting weakened the dollar and boosted stocks, which benefited all risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, bitcoin has continued to trade in a sideways range of $38-45K for the second month, with a closer look marked by a sequence of declining local highs with bullish momentum fading near 42 in the last two weeks. The positive sentiment is supported by the 50-day moving average reversing upwards. BTCUSD broke it in a relatively strong move on March 16th, and it has been acting as local support ever since. The external environment in the financial markets remains mixed. Traders have tighter financial conditions due to higher rates and waning economic growth on one side of the scale. On the other side is the demand for purchasing power insurance for capital due to the highest inflation in two generations. Weighing these factors, Galaxy Digital head Mike Novogratz said bitcoin would continue to trade in a sideways range this year. He said BTC will resume growth and reach $500K by 2025 as inflation curbing measures are too weak. Piyush Gupta, chief executive of Singapore's largest bank, DBS, said cryptocurrencies could be an alternative to gold but would not be able to fit into the traditional financial system due to excessive volatility.

Price Of Crude Oil And Price Of Gold Crosses Each Other

Alex Kuptsikevich 21.03.2022 12:14

Gold has remained in a one-and-a-half per cent range since last Thursday. The correction from a peak of $2070 to values below $1900 caused a brief aftershock, but it was not sustained. Gold has now stabilised above the peaks of May and June last year and is currently searching for further meaningful momentum. For short-term traders, gold has taken a back seat as markets try to assess the impact of disrupted supply chains and the amount of supply shortfall in raw materials and food. At the same time, medium-term traders should not lose sight of the fact that the current situation will not allow central banks to act adequately. As a result, the supply of fiat money will increase faster than the supply of commodities. In other words, we should expect greater tolerance for higher inflation from the CBs. In addition, governments should also be expected to provide financial support to the economy. In practice, that means more money supply and a higher level of public debt to GDP. And that is another disincentive for monetary policy, which is negative for the currency. It is also favourable for gold, which is used as protection against capital depreciation. Oil is gradually becoming the opposite of gold. After bouncing back to the trend support level of the last four months, Brent got back above $100 reasonably quickly and is adding 4% on Monday, trading at $109. Speculative demand for oil is picking up again amid discussions of a Russian energy divestment, which could be the agenda for the EU leaders and Biden meeting later this week. In addition, the US oil supply has been slow to rise, with data on Friday showing that the number of working oil drilling rigs declined a week earlier. Oil producers appear to be cautious about demand prospects with record fuel prices and are in no hurry to flood the market. This will fuel prices in the short term but is becoming an increasing drag on the economy in the medium term. Locally, we also risk suggesting that Europe will once again make it clear that it cannot substitute Russian energy, preferring to focus on sanctions against other sectors. And that could prove to be a dampening factor for oil later in the week. Oil prices above 110 still look unsustainably high, and a range with support at $85 looks more adequate for the coming months.

At The Close On The New York Stock Exchange Indices Closed Mixed

S&P500 tests latest rally

Alex Kuptsikevich 21.03.2022 16:17

Having added more than 8.2% to Tuesday's lows last week through Friday, S&P500 futures have surpassed the 50-day moving average and are testing the 200-day average by the start of US trading. We mentioned last week that the "death cross" should not be taken as a sell signal this time because it took place after a comparatively long decline. It was a repeat of 2020 when the cross appeared after the market bottomed. The recovery rally of the last week is undergoing an important test. If the S&P500 manages to get above 4500 today or tomorrow, firmly entrenched above the 200-day moving average (currently at 4480), we can confidently talk about breaking the correction. In that case, there is a potential for a quick rally towards 4600 already this week, 4800 over the next 2-3 months, and up to 5000 by the end of 2022. Looking only at the news headlines, the military action in Europe and the tightening of monetary policy by the Fed are not conducive to buyers' optimism. But, paradoxically, we are now in a situation where pessimism has reached or is close to its peak. Managers surveyed by Bank of America note the maximum pessimism since April 2020, which is near historical turning points. The only exception to the last 25 years was in 2007-2008 when pessimistic expectations persisted for an extended period due to banking sector problems. The Fear & Greed Index continues to improve from 16 (extreme fear) a week ago to 40 (fear) now. It has turned solidly around from the extreme lows, but equities are still an impressive distance from the highs at the beginning of the year, which leaves considerable room for growth from current levels. A strong sell-off in US equities from current levels and a consolidation below 4400 on the S&P500 could be a strong bearish signal, indicating an inability for the market to develop the offensive, which risks putting it back into a rapid decline situation.

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Stock Tops $500,000

Chris Vermeulen 21.03.2022 21:44

A subscriber asked us recently where he should be putting his money and how to limit losses in his retirement portfolio. He expressed frustration as he watched Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway stock going up, but at the same time, the stock indices going lower and many of his previously favored stocks experiencing substantial losses! This conversation naturally piqued our curiosity. We decided to look into this for him and, at the same time, share our findings with our subscribers.Berkshire Hathaway stock traded at an all-time record high price of $520,654.46. At a stock price of $512,991, Berkshire’s market capitalization is $756.23 billion. Last year, Berkshire generated a record $27.46 billion of operating profit, including gains at Geico car insurance, the BNSF railroad, and Berkshire Hathaway Energy.BERKSHIRE vs. S&P 500 BENCHMARKWarren Buffett, age 91 (known as the ‘Sage of Omaha’), is the chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. He is considered by many to be the most successful stock investor in the world and, according to Forbes Real-Time Billionaire List, has a personal net worth that exceeds $120 billion USD.Very few can compete with his long-term track record. Since 1965, Berkshire has provided +20% average annual returns, almost double the +10.2% average annual returns for the S&P 500 Stock Index benchmark. The 2022 year-to-date comparison is:BRK.A Berkshire Hathaway +14.53%; SPY SPDR ETF -6.36%; FB Facebook -35.64%However, according to Buffett’s own humility, he has endured years of underperformance and has had his share of bad stock picks. When Buffet was asked about drawdowns at one of Berkshire’s annual meetings, he stated, “Unless you can watch your stock holdings decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market.” According to www.finance.yahoo.com, the five biggest percentage losses for Berkshire have been:1974 -48.7%, 1990 -23.1%, 1999 -19.9%, 2008 -31.8%, and 2015 -12.5%.WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM THE ‘BUFFETT INDICATOR’?The Buffett Indicator, as dubbed by Berkshire shareholders, is the ratio of the total United States stock market valuations (the Wilshire 5000 stock index) divided by the annual U.S. GDP. The indicator peaked at the beginning of 2022 and remains near all-time highs even though many stocks are well off their record levels.This historical chart of the Buffett Indicator was created by www.currentmarketvaluation.com. Doing quantitative analysis, we learn that the indicator is more than 1.6 standard deviations above the historical average, which suggests the market is over-valued and, in time, will fall back to its historical average.Berkshire Hathaway At Fibonacci Resistance!On March 18, 2022, Berkshire hit an all-time high price of $520,654. The Fibonacci resistance level of 2.618 or 261.8% of the March 23 low of $239,440 is $520,196. As shown on the daily chart, Berkshire also met resistance at the 2.618 standard deviations of the quarterly Bollinger Band.THE BENCHMARK: S&P 500 SPY ETFThe S&P 500 Index is the industry standard benchmark when comparing investment returns. It’s worth noting that as Berkshire reached the Fibonacci 2.618 resistance, the SPY found support at the Fibonacci 1.618 of the SPY March 23, 2020 low.Central banks have begun to tighten credit by raising interest rates for the first time since 2018, attempting to bring fast-rising energy, food, and housing prices under control. More time is needed to determine the full impact that rising global interest rates will have on current markets.However, on the chart below, we can see that the SPY put in a major top around 480 and, for the time being, has found support around 420 (the Fibonacci 1.618 level). Considering the increased market volatility and that we are now entering a cycle of higher interest rates, it would not surprise us to see the SPY eventually break below 420.It is worth noting that when a market makes a top after a prolonged bull-market, we usually experience distribution. Distribution with volatility results from large institutions beginning to liquidate their holdings while smaller retail investors are trying to buy stocks on sale. In other words, the retail investors are buying the dip hoping to get a bargain, while the institutional investors are selling the rally hoping to be liquidated and/or go short. It is a battle that retail investors will eventually lose!It is important to understand we are not saying the market has topped and is headed lower. This article sheds some light on some interesting analyses that you should be aware of. As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we will change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades with subscribers to our newsletter, and surprisingly, we have just entered five new trades.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS? Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.GET READY, GET SET, GO - We invite you to learn more about how my three ETF Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

On Monday (BTC) Bitcoin Price Reached The Level Of Ca. $41k

Alex Kuptsikevich 22.03.2022 08:43

BTC changed a little on Monday, ending the day around $41.3K. However, in early trading on Tuesday, we saw a jump of more than 5% to $43.3K; then the first cryptocurrency sunk to $42K. Over the past 24 hours, Ethereum has gained 4%, and other leading altcoins from the top ten are not far behind: Solana and Avalanche are up 2%, Cardano is up 6%. Terra is out of the general outline, decreasing by 0.5%. According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market increased by 3% over the day, to $1.92 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index added 0.1 percentage points to 42% due to the BTC surge. Cryptocurrency fear and greed index fell by 4 points in a day, to 26, as its estimates do not include the latest bitcoin spurt. This is not the first such jump in BTC since the beginning of March, in contrast to the neutral or even negative sentiment in the stock markets. All this indicates the readiness of the bulls for decisive action. However, until now, such impulses cannot be on a solid basis, because the fundamental demand for risks is under obvious pressure. The most that the bulls were capable of in this case was the formation of support at the lows of July last year (ie below $30K). In January, the level moved to $35K and further to $37K at the end of February. According to the FxPro analysts, institutional investors withdrew about $47 million from crypto funds over the past week. The outflow of funds has been observed for the second week in a row. Meanwhile, the largest Australian financial conglomerate Commonwealth Bank of Australia stated a sharp increase in interest in crypto assets among clients. The bank intends to double the department responsible for the crypto industry. Among the big news, it is worth noting the number of burned ETH tokens in the Ethereum network, which exceeded 2 million. The process of burning altcoins began on August 5 after the release of the London update, which changed the mechanism for calculating commissions for transactions. Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Alexander Novak called for the legalization of cryptocurrency mining, recognizing it as a taxable business. A number of observers believe that this could be a way for Russia to capitalize on its energy potential in the face of reduced demand for Russian oil and gas.

EM currencies: growing polarisation

Alex Kuptsikevich 22.03.2022 13:04

Since the start of the year, the performance of emerging market currencies mirrors what we saw in 2021, but with more polarisation. The Brazilian real has been the growth leader against the dollar since the start of the year, gaining around 13%. It is followed by the South African rand and Colombian peso, gaining just over 7%. Among the hardest hit is the Russian Rouble (-33%), but also the Egyptian Pound (-14%) and the Turkish Lira (-10%). In our view, this polarisation only promises to increase in the coming months.Commodity-exporting countries have benefited amid a global jump in energy and agricultural commodity prices. Brazil gets a chance to seriously boost its oil sales to the US amid a supply embargo from Russia. Though net oil exporters, the states must buy significant amounts of heavy crude to run their refineries. Until 2019, oil from Venezuela was used for the right blend, subsequently replaced by Russian crude. Now it is being replaced by oil from Brazil, which promises a significant increase in exports and supports the exchange rate of the Brazilian real.The South African rand is in demand, receiving dividends from last year's monetary tightening and a surge in metal prices since the start of the year. As most global markets look for alternatives to the Russian metal, the ZAR is enjoying demand from speculators in anticipation of increased exports from South Africa for political reasons.We may well be seeing a global reversal in the attitude towards commodity exporters' currencies, as even in the event of a military settlement, there is no expectation of a quick recovery of previous economic ties.At the other end of the spectrum are countries' currencies that depend on imports of oil and agricultural products. Egypt buys most of its wheat consumption from Russia and Ukraine, and rising prices severely damage the balance of payments. Egypt's central bank has responded by tightening monetary policy to suppress inflation. But such steps tend to hurt economic growth. Turkey imported almost all its gas from Russia and Azerbaijan and bought its wheat from Ukraine and Russia. Price jumps and supply-chain disruptions will be costly for the economy and cause increased pressure on the Turkish lira.In addition to the prospect of inflated import volumes, Turkey and Egypt face a severe drop in revenues from the tourism industry, as Russia and Ukraine have provided a significant flow of tourists.

Bank of Japan will not keep the yen from falling

Alex Kuptsikevich 22.03.2022 14:53

The Japanese yen has fallen for the third week in a row, and the amplitude of this decline has become rather scary on Tuesday. It seems yen traders' stop-lines have been blown as the markets have become increasingly aware of the monetary authorities' reaction to inflation and the outlook for the balance of payments. In addition, over the past three weeks, we have seen a careful return of investors to risky assets, which is causing the yen to sell-off.USDJPY is trading above 120.70, which was last seen six years ago, having gained more than 5% since March 7th, while GBPJPY has soared 6% and EURJPY is up 7%. Against the yen are new comments from the Bank of Japan, which shows no sign of a change in its monetary policy, while central banks in other parts of the world issue increasingly hawkish statements.The pressure on the yen is exacerbated by its dependence on oil and metal imports, which widens the trade deficit of the historically export-oriented country. The value of exports in February 2022 was 18% higher than in 2020, while imports soared by 49%. Booming prices for energy, metals, and agricultural products set Japan up for a further plunge into trade deficits.In former years, sustained surpluses helped the yen maintain its strength or even strengthen during periods of market turbulence, ignoring anaemic economic growth and rising government debt to GDP levels.The resulting crisis in commodity prices will force central banks to unambiguously choose their policy towards government bonds on the balance sheet and the general level of government debt. While the USA and Europe are tightening their rhetoric on interest rates, Japan is deliberately lagging. At the same time, the government maintains an apparent calm, pointing out that there are both disadvantages and advantages of a weak exchange rate. The yen problem is not bothering the authorities right now.We should wait and see if investor confidence in the Japanese currency is undermined. Losing control of the exchange rate would risk an escalation of selling into Japanese government debt more than 250% of GDP. The only realistic soft solution is to deflate the national debt by accelerating inflation, but only if the central bank remains a big buyer to prevent an appreciation of the national debt. Such a policy would lead to sustained pressure on the yen.

Bitcoin Price Hits $42k, ETH And AVAX Have Decreased, Polkadot (DOT) Gained

Alex Kuptsikevich 23.03.2022 09:12

BTC rose 3.5% on Tuesday. At the peak of the day, the rate exceeded $43.2K, but by Wednesday morning, it rolled back to $42K, demonstrating a 0.7% correction. Growth without solid reasons? Bitcoin tested 19-day highs above $43,000 supported by stock indexes with Chinese equities predominantly pulling it. BTC rose sharply during the Asian session, adding about $2,000 in a few hours, although a corrective mood then prevailed. Bitcoin clearly doesn't have a reason for a solid establishment on the path of growth yet. Ethereum is losing 1% over 24 hours, while other leading altcoins from the top ten showed mixed dynamics yesterday: from a decline of 2.7% (Avalanche) to a rise of 3.8% (Polkadot). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 0.5%, to $1.91 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index fell by 0.1% to 41.9%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index added another 5 points to 31, although it remains in a "fear" state. BTC is ready for sharp swing At the moment, on-chain metrics are consistent with a bear market, Glassnode notes. The rise in implied volatility and higher leverage in the derivatives market point to the possibility of a sharp swing in bitcoin. However, the sell-off in "defensive" developed-country government bonds continues in financial markets as investors park their money in stocks and commodities that provide the best hedge against prolonged and high inflation. At the same time, there are no clear signs of an economic and financial catastrophe that could hurt stocks or commodities. The world's largest hedge fund Bridgewater Associates plans to invest in one of the third-party crypto funds, pointing to the risks for fiat currencies, which lose sharply during periods of military and economic wars.

Tepid BoJ Stance Despite Inflation Surge: Future Policy Outlook

Inflation Rises In Great Britain, GBP May Weaken, What Is Bank Of England Going To Do

Alex Kuptsikevich 23.03.2022 09:37

After the traditional January reset, UK consumer prices continued their flight. Morning data showed that CPI rose by 0.8% last month and 6.2% year-over-year. This data is 0.2 percentage points above market expectations, indicating that prices rise faster than initially forecast. Last week the Bank of England indicated that inflation could peak near 8% but failed to vote unanimously to raise rates. In contrast, it would be much more logical to speed up rate hikes with inflation accelerating. The Central Bank's more dovish stance than circumstances requires turns the market reaction to solid inflation figures upside down. The British currency is under pressure to release stronger-than-expected figures as investors overestimate real bond yields. This currency reaction to inflation is mainly a characteristic of emerging markets, where confidence that the situation is under the control of the Central Bank is not too strong. So far, we are only witnessing a cautious distrust of the Bank of England by Forex traders. However, the example of Japan, whose currency has lost over 6% in 3 weeks, clearly shows signs of a loss of confidence in central banks in developed countries which remain on the side of the economy and have not entirely switched over to fighting inflation.

The Swing Overview - Week 11 2022

Purple Trading 23.03.2022 16:13

The Swing Overview - Week 11 The fall in the indices that we have seen in recent days has stopped. The indices strengthened on expectations of a diplomatic solution to the war in Ukraine, which has been going on for more than three weeks. However, these negotiations have not led to any significant breakthrough yet, so the upside potential for the indices could be limited. In addition, the Fed has started its own war against inflation and raised interest rates for the first time in three years, which is rather negative news for equity indices in the short term. However, the statistics say that in the long run it does not mean a trend reversal for the SP 500 index. The Bank of England also raised rates, but the pound surprisingly weakened. The reason for this is in our article. The war in Ukraine The war in Ukraine has been going on for more than three weeks now and there is still no end in sight. Sentiment has started to improve after reports on negotiations for a diplomatic solution to the war. However, Russia continues to make unrealistic demands that Ukraine cannot agree to. Negotiations have therefore have not led to a solution yet. Meanwhile, the economic situation in Russia continues to deteriorate rapidly as a result of the sanctions. The credit rating agency Standard & Poor's has downgraded Russia's credit rating from the current grade CCC- to CC. Russia has already announced that it is having difficulty repaying its bonds. However, Russia managed to pay the coupon payments that were due this week, averting the country's imminent bankruptcy for now. The war in Ukraine will have a negative impact on the global economy. World economic growth for 2022 is expected to fall from 4% to 3.2%. Apart from Russia and Ukraine, Europe and the UK will be hardest hit, where there is a significant risk of recession. The Fed has raised interest rates The US Fed has launched a war on inflation and raised interest rates for the first time since December 2018. The current rate is 0.50% and further increases will continue. The Fed disclosed that rates are expected to rise to 2.80% within a year. Figure 1: The evolution of interest rates in the US The evolution of interest rates, over the last 25 years, is shown in Figure 1. Jerome Powell commented that the Fed's main goal is to achieve price stability and maximum employment. He expects inflation, which has now reached 7.9%, to reach the target of 2%, but this will take longer than originally expected. The problem is a persistent labour shortage, which is putting upward pressure on wages. However, the situation is already starting to normalise in some sectors, suggesting that this should not be an uncontrollable spiral wage growth that would strongly support inflation. According to Powell, the US economy is in good shape and ready for monetary policy normalisation. Therefore, the Fed will start in May to reduce the bonds in its balance sheet, which has grown considerably to almost $9 trillion thanks to the support of the economy during the covid pandemic. The Index SP500 As far as the impact of interest rate hikes is concerned, this should not change the long-term bullish market. Statistics confirm that over the following 12 months from the date of the hike, the index has reached higher levels in every case since 1983. Figure 2: The impact of the first interest rate hike on the performance of the SP 500 index. Source: Bloomberg However, the statistics also show that in the short term, there were declines in the index within 3 months and this cannot be ruled out now as well. As for the current developments on the SP 500 index, it has recently bounced off its supports. The reason for this was the hope for a diplomatic solution to the war in Ukraine. However, this has stalled. The Fed also gave optimism to the indices with its statement about the economy doing well. Figure 3: SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart Overall, the index is currently in a downtrend. In terms of technical analysis, the price has reached the resistance level which is at 4,383 - 4,420. According to the daily chart, the price has reached the EMA 50 moving average, which also serves as resistance. Support according to the H4 chart is at 4,328 - 4,334. Significant support according to the daily chart is at 4 105 - 4 152. German DAX index Figure 4: The German DAX index on H4 and daily chart There was a significant deterioration in economic sentiment in Germany in March, as shown by the ZEW index, which reached a negative reading of -39.3. However, the DAX index, which is much more affected by the war in Ukraine than the US indices, strengthened last week. The reason for the index's rise was mainly due to signs of a diplomatic solution to the conflict. The price climbed up to the resistance level on the H4 chart last week, which is in the area near the 14,500 price. The strong resistance according to the daily chart is in the range between 14,800 - 15,000. The closest support according to the H4 chart is at 14,030 - 14,100. The euro strengthened after the Fed announcement The euro price retested the resistance area which is in the area near 1.1130 - 1.1150 according to the daily chart. However, the Euro remains under pressure and although the ECB was surprisingly hawkish at the last meeting, it is still lagging behind compared to the US Fed. Moreover, the war in Ukraine, and according to some, the looming recession in the Eurozone, does not give much room for the Euro to strengthen. Therefore, it would not be surprising if the EURUSD falls to levels around 1. 0890 - 1. 0900, where the nearest support level is. Figure 5: The EURUSD on the H4 and daily charts. From a technical point of view, we can see that EURUSD is still in a downtrend according to the daily chart, so the current pullback may be an opportunity for trades in the short direction. The Bank of England also raised interest rates The Bank of England raised its key interest rate by 0.25%. Therefore, the rate is currently at 0.75%. By raising interest rates, the central bank is responding to rising inflation, which is expected to hit 8% in June 2022. But the pound surprisingly weakened sharply after the rate announcement. This was because the central bank was much more cautious in its expectations for the future of the economy. There are already signs that the war in Ukraine is having a negative impact on consumer confidence and is also having a negative impact on household incomes. This would slow economic activity. That is why the central bank has moved away from its previous aggressive hawkish tone. Figure 6: The British Pound on H4 and daily chart. A resistance is in the area of 1.3170 - 1.3200, where the price has halted. A support is at 1.3000.

What Will Be The Impact Of Rising Rates On Stocks & Commodities?

Chris Vermeulen 23.03.2022 21:33

Investors and traders alike are concerned about what investments they should make on behalf of their portfolios and retirement accounts. We, at TheTechnicalTraders.com, continue to monitor stocks and commodities closely due to the Russia-Ukraine War, market volatility, surging inflation, and rising interest rates. Several of our subscribers have asked if changes in monitor policy may lead to a recession as higher rates take a bigger bite out of corporate profits.As technical traders, we look exclusively at the price action to provide specific clues as to the current trend or a potential change in trend. We review our charts for both stocks and commodities to see what we can learn from the most recent price action. Before we dive into that, let’s review the various stages of the market; with special attention given to expansion vs. contraction in a rising interest rate environment which you can see illustrated below.PAY ATTENTION TO YOUR STOCK PORTFOLIOWe are keeping an especially close eye on the price action of the SPY ETF. The current resistance for the SPY is the 475 top that happened around January 6, 2022. This top was 212.5% of the March 23, 2020, low that was put in at the height of the Covid global pandemic.The SPY found support in the 410 area at the end of February. If you recall (or didn't know), 410 was the Fibonacci 1.618 or 161.8% percent of the Covid 2020 price drop. Now, after experiencing a nice rally back, of a little over 50%, we are waiting to see if the rally can continue or if rotation will occur, sending the price back lower.COMMODITY MARKETS SURGEDThe commodity markets experienced a tremendous rally due to fast-rising inflation, especially energy, metals, and food prices.The GSG ETF price action shows that we recently touched 200%, or the doubling of the April 21, 2020, low. Immediately following, similar to the SPY, the GSCI commodity index promptly sold off only to then find substantial buying support at the Fibonacci 1.618 or 161.8 percent of the starting low price of the bull trend. Resistance for the GSG is at 26, and support is 21.A STRENGTHENING US DOLLARThe strengthening US dollar can be attributed to investors seeking a safe haven from geopolitical events, surging inflation, and the Fed beginning to raise rates. The US Dollar is still considered the primary reserve currency as the greatest portion of forex reserves held by central banks are in dollars. Furthermore, most commodities, including gold and crude oil, are also denominated in dollars.Consider the following statement from the Bank of International Settlements www.bis.org ‘Triennial Central Bank Survey’ published September 16, 2019: “The US dollar retained its dominant currency status, being on one side of 88% of all trades.” The report also highlighted, “Trading in FX markets reached $6.6 trillion per day in April 2019, up from $5.1 trillion three years earlier.” That’s a lot of dollars traded globally and confirms that we need to stay current on the dollars price action.Multinational companies are especially keeping a close eye on the dollar as any major shift in global money flows will seriously negatively impact their net profit and subsequent share value.The following chart by www.finviz.com provides us with a current snapshot of the relative performance of the US dollar vs. major global currencies over the past year:KNOWLEDGE, WISDOM, AND APPLICATION ARE NEEDEDIt is important to understand that we are not saying the market has topped and is headed lower. This article is to shed light on some interesting analyses of which you should be aware. As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we will change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades to our subscribers, and somewhat surprisingly, we entered five new trades earlier this week, two of which have now hit their first profit target levels. Our models continually track price action in a multitude of markets, asset classes, and global money flow. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS? Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

The Interest Rate Cut Will Not Affect The Ruble (RUB)

Russian Roubles (RUB) As A Way To Pay For The Gas?

Alex Kuptsikevich 23.03.2022 15:55

The Russian rubles adds more than 3% to the dollar, trading around 100 on news that "so-called unfriendly countries" will have to pay for gas in rubles. Impulsively (as the Russian currency market remains extremely illiquid), the USDRUB dropped below 95. This is indeed positive news for the Russian currency as it increases demand. But is it such a significant step? All exporters are now obliged to convert at least 80% of their foreign currency earnings into rubles. On the foreign exchange side, buying gas for rubles raises the bar to 100% for Gazprom and several other smaller exporters, but not for all jurisdictions (about 70% of total gas exports). For the balance of supply and demand of the ruble, this is a much less strong move than the initial order to convert 80% of all foreign exchange earnings into rubles. The news itself carries more of an emotional message for the markets. Still, the initial optimism could correct very quickly and is unlikely to be the mainstay for a sustained rally in the rubles. It also looks like an attempt to jab the USA, as selling energy for dollars has often been referred to as the basis of the reserve status of the USD in recent months. A secondary effect was the inversion of the spread between the USDRUB exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange and in Forex. Previously, in early March, USDRUB was traded up to 10 rubles less in Russia than abroad (though the spread diminished over time). Now USDRUB is settling at 98 on FX versus 100.4 on MOEX. Another secondary effect is a rise in oil prices of more than 5% since the start of the day, as some buyers will try to use the remaining alternative to gas, which can still be bought with dollars. Among the adverse effects, albeit in the medium term, it is worth pointing out that the switch to ruble settlements will accelerate a pullback of Russian gas by Europe, reducing export revenues, which has been a guarantee of ruble stability and a driver of economic growth.

$30 Trilion Crypto Market Cap!? Regulated Cryptocurrencies Might Increase Demand!

Alex Kuptsikevich 24.03.2022 09:22

Bitcoin is trading above $43K on Thursday morning, gaining 2.5% over the past 24 hours. Moderate but steady optimism around bitcoin is the best breeding ground for altcoin buyers. Bitcoin is trading around the resistance For the last ten days, we have seen a systematic increase in prices, although with a very modest amplitude by the standards of the crypto market. Ethereum added 3.4%, other leading altcoins from the top ten are in the range from +1% (XRP) to +12% (Dogecoin). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market grew by 2.8% over the past day, to $1.96 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index lost another 0.2% to 41.7%. The crypto-currency index of fear and greed has grown by 9 points, to 40. This is still a fear zone, but already close to neutral territory. Bitcoin retreated from the resistance at $43K on Tuesday. However, on Thursday it is making attempts to gain a foothold above this mark again. The last rollback in this case could be nothing more than a tactical retreat of the bulls in order to develop growth with renewed vigor. Nevertheless, confidence in the formation of a strong bullish momentum will come only after BTCUSD fixes above 45 thousand, from where we saw reversals in February and early March. Moderate but steady optimism around bitcoin is the best breeding ground for altcoin buyers. It is clearly seen that their dynamics is now better than that of the first cryptocurrency. If this trend continues for a couple more days, the effect of a feedback loop may work, when the outstripping growth of altcoins will pull Bitcoin up. Market Cap may grow in 15 times Bank of America predicts that regulation of the cryptocurrency market will increase confidence and increase its capitalization by 15 times, up to $30 trillion. The former head of one of the divisions of Bank of America, David Woo, believes that bitcoin will face economic and geopolitical pressure after the launch of the state digital currency (CBDC) of the United States. China has already acted in a similar way, which has come closest to the introduction of the digital yuan. Thailand will ban the usage of cryptocurrencies as a means of payment from April 1. They declared that such payments have a negative impact on the financial system and reduce the effectiveness of the state's monetary policy.

Falling Japanese yen suggests a changing world order

Alex Kuptsikevich 24.03.2022 15:23

The collapse of the Japanese yen continues, and so far, there are no signs of a trend reversal. The rise in the Yen is often linked to capital flight from risky assets, and the weakening is a sign of increased demand for risky assets. But that explanation hardly fits with what is happening now. We likely see the start of a significant reassessment by the markets of Japan's position in the financial system. In a worst-case scenario, this may turn into a debt crisis in the Land of the Rising Sun and be an even bigger disaster for financial markets than the eurozone debt crisis of a decade ago.The starting point for the weakening of the Yen was at the start of February. At that time, equities were in demand as a haven for capital to maintain the purchasing power of investments. The flow into equities was interrupted by the war in Ukraine but accelerated in the last couple of weeks on signs that these events have hyped up the processes that were taking place before. And these processes are now most visible in the dynamics of the Japanese yen against those currencies where the central bank can respond adequately to inflation.Since the start of February, the USDJPY has risen by 6.5%, and almost all of this increase has taken place since March 7th, taking the pair back to levels last seen at the end of 2015. A much more impressive rally is taking place in the Aussie and Kiwi against the Yen. Since the start of February, they have soared by more than 12%. So far this month, the strengthening is the largest in 11 years for AUDJPY and in more than 12 years for NZDJPY.The interest rate differential game, which was so beloved by traders in Japan before the global financial crisis, has found a second life. Australia and New Zealand have the economic potential to raise interest rates, as they are experiencing a surge in exports due to the boom in their export prices. However, the situation in Japan looks considerably more alarming, as Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio has risen by 77 percentage points to 170% since the financial crisis. Permanent QE from the Bank of Japan has kept government debt costs down but doesn't solve the problem.In the last decade, Japan has turned into a net commodity importer due to its growing dependence on energy and metals and increasing competition from China and Korea. The exchange rate should act as a natural mechanism to stabilise trade in this situation.But this adjustment is difficult for debt-laden Japan because selling currency would de facto mean selling bonds denominated in that currency. Under these circumstances, the Bank of Japan will either have to openly accept that it will finance the government (i.e. increase purchases despite inflation) or soften QE. The first option risks triggering a historic revaluation of the Yen. The second option would deal a blow to the economy and finances by raising questions about whether Japan can service its debt.

The US Jobless claims: 53 years' low

Alex Kuptsikevich 24.03.2022 16:19

The number of initial jobless claims in the US collapsed to 187K last week, the lowest since 1969. Before the pandemic, the number was hovering around 220K, and we saw a complete recovery to these levels in the previous four weeks. The fresh data has marked a move into uncharted territory, indicating a further tightening in the labour market.Such data further reinforces the need for the Fed to tighten policy as labour market further screws the inflationary spiral amid the initial jump in energy and commodity prices. A strong labour market is positive news for both stocks and the dollar as the central bank will have more room to tighten policy without fear of sending the economy into recession.Right now, the market is banking on seeing six more rate hikes before the end of the year and the start of active selling off the balance sheet as early as in May-July.

Crude Oil Holds Its Breath Ahead of World Summits

Finance Press Release 24.03.2022 16:46

Current levels of oil and petroleum products are high. Given that, what can explain such a surprising drop in US crude inventories?Energy Market UpdatesCommercial crude oil reserves in the United States fell much more than expected in the week ended March 18, according to figures released on Wednesday by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).US crude inventories have shrunk by more than 2.5 million barrels, which implies greater demand and is obviously another bullish factor for crude oil prices. Such a decline in inventories is particularly remarkable as the American strategic reserves have also recorded a significant drop. This is the 25th consecutive week of falling strategic reserves since the Biden administration started to make those adjustments in an attempt to relieve the market.(Source: Investing.com)WTI Crude Oil (CLK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart)Furthermore, some additional figures extracted from the same EIA report were released and surprised the markets.These are US Gasoline Reserves, which plunged by about 2.95 million barrels over a week, while the market was not even forecasting a two-million decline.(Source: Investing.com)Thus, US exports jumped by more than 30% compared to the previous week, not only due to large flows to Europe to replace Russian barrels, but also marked by a significant rebound in Asian demand.RBOB Gasoline (RBJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart)Beware that a NATO summit, a G7 summit, and a European Union summit are being held on Thursday, when the various countries could set a new round of sanctions against Moscow.So, how will black gold progress from now on? Do you think that the on-going negotiations with Iran and Venezuela could flood the market with additional barrels? Let us know in the comments!That’s all folks for today. Happy trading!Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Price Of Gold Nears $45k As Many Authorities Are Speaking Of Crypto

Alex Kuptsikevich 25.03.2022 08:52

Bitcoin is trading above $44.1K on Friday, gaining 2.4% over the past day and 8.2% over the week. Increased inquiry for BTC Yesterday, the first cryptocurrency was in demand during the Asian and American sessions. The current values of BTC are consolidating in the area of 2-month extremes. In contrast to the previous test of these levels, this time, we see a smooth rise in the rate, indicating that the bulls still have some momentum. Also, over the past 24 hours, Ethereum has gained 2.4%, while other leading altcoins from the top ten have strengthened from 0.5% (XRP) to 7.4% (Solana). The exception is Terra, which is shedding 1.8%, correcting part of its gains in the first half of the week. According to CoinMarketCap, the total crypto market capitalization increased by 2.3% to $2 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index rose 0.1 percentage points to 41.8%. The Fear and Greed Cryptocurrency Index added another 7 points to 47 and ended up in the neutral territory. Cardano leads the last week in terms of growth among top coins (+39%) as Coinbase added the possibility of staking cryptocurrency with a current estimated annual return of 3.75% per annum. Countries assess the risks of cryptos Credit Suisse reported that Bitcoin doesn't pose a threat to the banking sector as an alternative to fiat money and banking services. The CEO of BlackRock, one of the world's largest investment companies, noted that military actions in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia will increase the popularity of cryptocurrencies and accelerate their adoption. Despite the rally in global stocks over the past two weeks, financial conditions in the debt markets continue to deteriorate due to rising interest rates and inflation. Largely because of this, El Salvador has postponed the issuance of bitcoin bonds in anticipation of more favorable conditions. Since very active steps to raise key rates are expected in the next year and a half, and Bitcoin is far from the highs, it is unlikely that such bonds will be issued soon. The Bank of England intends to tighten supervision of cryptocurrencies due to the financial risks that their adoption carries. However, the Central Bank urged commercial banks to exercise maximum caution when dealing with these extremely volatile assets.

Russian oil and gas divestment forms a steady upward price trend

Alex Kuptsikevich 25.03.2022 10:43

Oil and gas remain hot topics in the markets. Although these energy prices have corrected from their recent highs, the uptrend promised to be with us as long as there are no signs of de-escalation in Ukraine. Moreover, high energy prices are turning into a new reality that could stay with us for years to come.While most news headlines focus on spot gas price developments in Europe, an upward trend has also emerged in the US. This trend has intensified over the past ten days amid discussions about cutting gas supplies from Russia.Biden urged Europe to increase its US liquefied natural gas purchases, even though supplies were already double the previous year's level. Putin's demand to be paid for Russian gas in roubles makes these purchases as uncomfortable as possible. Such a move would accelerate Europe's rejection of Russian energy, proving to voters in the region that they cannot rely on Russian power.The demand for alternative gas from the US and the Middle East is growing. And this demand promises to be a long-term trend. Even in the event of a military de-escalation in the coming weeks, attitudes towards Russia in Europe and the US will be tainted for years, and European countries will continue their economically unprofitable reliance on gas from Russia.The US has all but tapped its spare capacity to produce and supply gas to Europe. It will take time to expand, so competition among buyers is now gaining momentum.Much of the same applies to Russian oil, which is exported at 4 million BPD and, with political will, could be fully substituted in less than a year. OPEC is not showing the necessary will and is in no hurry to take Russia's share of the global oil trade.While oil and gas consumers in Europe and some Asian countries are cutting back as much as possible on purchases from Russia, energy prices on global markets continue to rise. At the same time, the discount for spot prices for Russian oil and gas remains exceptionally high.Reducing Russia's 30% share of Europe's gas supply is painful and long-term. Finding a new balance could take several quarters or even years, during which energy prices will remain above long-term average levels or occasionally spike.

Operation in Ukraine leads to German Business climate collapse

Alex Kuptsikevich 25.03.2022 12:20

According to fresh Ifo estimates, business sentiment in Germany fell in March to its lowest level since January 2021. The business climate index fell from 98.5 to 90.8 following a collapse in business expectations amid war in Ukraine and the associated surge in energy and several other commodity prices.The drop in economic expectations was comparable to what we saw exactly two years ago at the start of the pandemic. New sentiment data may prove to be the first indication of the depth of the economic losses in the next quarter or two from ongoing events. They could wipe out as much as 1% of GDP in the outgoing quarter and another 2% in the next.However, the current scenario is already priced in the financial markets. The Eurozone stock indices, which often outperform the economic cycle, are now more than 15% above their lows of March 7th. The same can be said for the euro, which is firmly based around USD 1.10, which has been stable for the last three months against the pound and strengthened by more than 8% against the Japanese yen.

S&P500 tops 200-dayMA: the bottom is behind us

Alex Kuptsikevich 25.03.2022 14:20

The S&P500 is consolidating above important technical and psychological levels, which could herald further gains in stock markets. The peak of fear in the markets due to the military action in Ukraine came on March 7-8. After that date, we saw strong recovery momentum in European equity indices over the next nine days, after which the DAX40 and EuroStoxx50 were stuck in a sideways.The US market did not fall as sharply as the European market at the outbreak of hostilities, but the recovery rally also came with a different delay. The S&P500 managed to bounce back from local lows only on March 15, after falling 15% from its peak at the beginning of the year. After that, we saw a rally of 9.5%.The powerful intraday movement of the S&P500 got its footing above the 50-day average last Friday. This week, buyers pushed the index above the 200-day average, a stronger bullish signal. On Wednesday, the sellers tried to lower the index, consolidating the bearish trend, but the market closed above that significant line again at the end of Thursday. S&P500 futures added 0.3% by early trading in New York, confirming the bullish sentiment.The index also closed Thursday above the round level 4500, which promises to attract attention for more buying in the coming days.

GOLD – The week ahead from KOG

Knights of Gold 27.03.2022 20:13

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/2YHOJMDX-XAUUSD-KOG-Report/KOG Report:In last weeks KOG Report we said we were expecting a big move on the horizon which may throw a lot of traders of course. Instead, we got majority of the week in the range and then a break just slightly above towards the end of the week. We got the push up into the 1930s price level which gave a great short into one of the targets we suggested being 1910. We managed to guide trades through the range and managed a fantastic week netting over 300pips on Gold alone. Not to mention the other pairs that hit targets at Camelot.So what can we expect in the week ahead?We’re going to keep it short this week with a plan to go long but, we want to see how the market opens. We have an area in mind which is around the 1985 price mark, but we want to see if this pushes up in the early sessions and tests that 1960-65 region first! We can see here that we have broken out of the range but only slightly, that previous resistance level has now become support, a strong test on that support is needed and this needs to hold for this to go higher and challenge that 1985 level as the first target and above that 1997. So we’ll trade this with two scenarios in mind.Scenario 1:Price come down on opening sessions and tests that lower support region which is also the top of the previous range between 1945-50. We don’t want the price to close and hold below this level, we want to see a quick visit and rejection here. IF we do get the support, we want then we will be looking to go long up towards the 1965 region first and above that 1985. The higher region and target of 1997 is where we want to see a reaction on price and depending on that reaction, we may test the short trade there! If we hold below that support level and it becomes resistance again we will be waiting lower around the 1930-25 price point where again we will look for support and attempt to go long. We will update you as we go along during the week.Scenario 2:Price pushes up into 1960-65. We want to see it resist here and then hold above the 1950 level. As long as we get that retest we will then attempt the long trade back up into those levels. This scenario only works on the retest as we don’t want to short for 100pips back down into major support. So please wait for confirmation on the trade. Again, breaking and closing below that level and we will wait lower to go long which we will update you on. Both these scenarios are effective if the price stays above the support level which was previous resistance. This week is going to be really important, it’s the end of the month, financial year and the quarter. There is going to be a lot of volume in the markets with institutions covering positions and wanting to close out of positions. That move we were anticipating last week which will throw traders off may happen this week. Please tread carefully and control your lot sizes, always have a risk strategy in place and allow yourself time to manage your position. Before we go, we would like to wish all the mothers a happy mothers day and all our followers a great end to the weekend. We’ll be back tomorrow with an update.As always, trade safe.KOG

Terraform Labs - Liquidity Pool, SINGLE - dApp Available - DeFi Update (28/03-03/04/22)

Crypto - A "Financial Bubble" And Fictional Backup?

Alex Kuptsikevich 28.03.2022 08:39

Bitcoin rose 9.1% over the past week, ending it around $46,100. Ethereum added 9.5%, while other leading altcoins from the top ten rose in price from 3.2% (XRP) to 27.4% (Cardano). The exception was Terra (-0.4%). Bitcoin broke the resistance According to CoinGecko, the total capitalization of the crypto market increased by 9.9% in a week, to $2.14 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index added 0.2% to 40.6%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index rose 18 points in a week to 49 and moved from "fear" to neutral. Bitcoin rose for the second week in a row against the backdrop of strengthening stock indices. On Sunday, BTC broke through strong resistance around $45,000, which reversed its downward movement several times in February and early March. The technical picture favors further gains as Bitcoin climbed above the 100-day moving average (MA) for the first time since early December and heads towards the 200-day MA ($48,200). Cryptos found new drivers for the growth The FxPro analyst team mentioned a possible driver of the uptrend in BTC are rumors about the intentions of the non-profit organization Luna Foundation Guard (LFG) to invest in bitcoin. On March 27, it became known that LFG bought more than $1.1 billion worth of coins to ensure the stability of the Terra USD (UST) algorithmic stablecoin. The best dynamics among altcoins was demonstrated by Cardano against the backdrop of the announcement of ADA staking by Coinbase crypto exchange. Meanwhile, well-known crypto critic Peter Schiff again criticized the cryptocurrency, comparing it to a financial bubble and calling it stupid for people to save their savings from inflation by buying BTC. According to Schiff, cryptocurrencies have no real value and are backed by people's trust in the same way as fiat currency.

Euro (EUR), Japanese Yen And Dollar (USD) Interactions. Dollar Index (DXY) Looks Quite Fine. A Year Full Of Fed Decisions...

Alex Kuptsikevich 28.03.2022 12:44

There has been a lot of talk lately about the decline of the US dollar's reserve status. However, investors and traders should separate long-term trends from short-term market impulses. Reserve fund managers often prefer to refrain from active selling so as not to cause unnecessary market turbulence, so all reserve trends are stretched out over decades. As long as there is no real threat to the existence of the dollar and the solvency of the US government, managers will avoid making active moves to sell dollar assets. And all the revolutionary changes, such as switching to national currencies, will only result in CBs buying fewer new dollars. But it has little effect on the exchange rate. Right now, we are seeing the opposite picture, as the main competitors are under pressure. Investors are getting rid of the Japanese yen as the Bank of Japan accelerates its currency printing to buy bonds out of the market to stem rising yields. The local government is overburdened with debt, and the economy is still stalling. The only market solution is a devaluation of the yen, which would make exports from Japan more competitive and boost domestic spending. The single currency is suffering from a spike in energy prices and economic problems related to the war in Ukraine. Trading below 1.1000, the EURUSD pair is now where it was heading for the last six months before the pandemic. The medium-term outlook for the dollar is largely influenced by the extent to which the Fed will be able to implement policy tightening. More accurately, how Fed policy compares with the policy of the Bank of Japan, the ECB, or another major central bank. The Fed is clearly acting with greater amplitude, setting itself up for 7 rate hikes this year, which is far more than one would expect from Japan or the eurozone. Moreover, the US remains much further away from the war in Ukraine in business and trade terms than its biggest competitors, which means it can continue to benefit from capital inflows as a haven.

Who Benefits Most From the Russia-Ukraine War?

Finance Press Release 28.03.2022 17:25

With the unrest in the Black Sea basin, it appears that there are two more cross-trade wars in the world. These are about energy and currency.Crude oil prices, down most of Friday, finally ended the week higher after a huge fire broke out at oil facilities in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, following attacks by Yemeni rebels.The great winner of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is undoubtedly the United States, which now seems to be taking advantage of Europe’s moment of weakness.The latter is indeed currently switching its energy supplies from Russian natural gas (pipeline-transported) to the much more polluting and much more expensive US shale gas. The reasons are much higher extraction (fracking) and transportation costs since it requires additional processes such as liquefaction/degasification and the deployment of more port terminals that are able to provide such steps – also much more energy-consuming – linked to Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) supplies.(Source: ResearchGate.net)By doing so, the European Union is going to increase its dependence on the US whilst a new and stronger block (including Asia) emerges on the east side.As a result, we have already started to witness dedollarisation in international trade, with the petroyuan set to dethrone the heavily-printed petrodollar.No wonder that the US dollar supply surge has ended up triggering uncontrollable and probably still underestimated inflation. As a result, this monetary virus is spreading through the global economy at a faster pace than any other variant! WTI Crude Oil (CLK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart)“Inflation is like toothpaste. Once it's out, you can hardly get it back in again. So, the best thing is not to squeeze too hard on the tube.” – Dr Karl Otto PöhlThat’s all folks for today. Happy trading!Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Volatility Retreats As Stocks & Commodities Rally

Chris Vermeulen 28.03.2022 21:32

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a real-time index. It is derived from the prices of SPX index options with near-term expiration dates that are utilized to generate a 30-day forward projection of volatility. The VIX allows us to gauge market sentiment or the degree of fear among market participants. As the Volatility Index VIX goes up, fear increases, and as it goes down, fear dissipates.Commodities and equities are both showing renewed strength on the heels of global interest rate increases. Inflation shows no sign of abating as energy, metals, food products, and housing continues their upward bias.During the last 18-months, the VIX has been trading between its upper resistance of 36.00 and its lower support of 16.00. As the Volatility Index VIX falls, fear subsides, and money flows back into stocks.VIX – VOLATILITY S&P 500 INDEX – CBOE – DAILY CHARTSPY RALLIES +10%The SPY has enjoyed a sharp rally back up after touching its Fibonacci 1.618% support based on its 2020 Covid price drop. Money has been flowing back into stocks as investors seem to be adapting to the current geopolitical environment and the change in global central bank lending rate policy.Resistance on the SPY is the early January high near 475, while support remains solidly in place at 414. March marks the 2nd anniversary of the 2020 Covid low that SPY made at 218.26 on March 23, 2020.SPY – SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST - ARCA – DAILY CHARTBERKSHIRE HATHAWAY RECORD-HIGH $538,949!Berkshire Hathaway is up +20.01% year to date compared to the S&P 500 -4.68%. Berkshire’s Warren Buffet has also been on a shopping spree, and investors seem to be comforted that he is buying stocks again. Buffet reached a deal to buy insurer Alleghany (y) for $11.6 billion and purchased nearly a 15% stake in Occidental Petroleum (OXY), worth $8 billion.These acquisitions seem to be well-timed as insurers and banks tend to benefit from rising interest rates, and Occidental generates the bulk of its cash flow from the production of crude oil.As technical traders, we look exclusively at the price action to provide specific clues as to the current trend or a potential change in trend. With that said, Berkshire is a classic example of not fighting the market. As Berkshire continues to make new highs, its’ trend is up!BRK.A – BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. - NYSE – DAILY CHARTCOMMODITY DEMAND REMAINS STRONGInflation continues to run at 40-year highs, and it appears that it will take more than one FED rate hike to subdue prices. Since price is King, we definitely want to ride this trend and not fight it. It is always nice to buy on a pullback, but the energy markets at this point appear to be rising exponentially. The XOP ETF gave us some nice buying opportunities earlier at the Fibonacci 0.618% $71.78 and the 0.93% $93.13 of the COVID 2020 range high-low.Remember, the trend is your friend, as many a trader has gone broke trying to pick or sell a top before its time! Well-established uptrends like the XOP are perfect examples of how utilizing a trailing stop can keep a trader from getting out of the market too soon but still offer protection in case of a sudden trend reversal.XOP – SPDR S&P OIL & GAS EXPLORE & PRODUCT – ARCA – DAILY CHARTKNOWLEDGE, WISDOM, AND APPLICATION ARE NEEDEDIt is important to understand that we are not saying the market has topped and is headed lower. This article is to shed light on some interesting analyses of which you should be aware. As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we will change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades to our subscribers, and somewhat surprisingly, we entered five new trades last week, four of which have now hit their first profit target levels. Our models continually track price action in a multitude of markets, asset classes, and global money flow. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! Furthermore, successfully trading is not limited to when to buy or sell stocks or commodities. Money and risk management play a critical role in becoming a consistently profitable trader. Correct position sizing utilizing stop-loss orders helps preserve your investment capital and allows traders to manage their portfolios according to their desired risk parameters. Additionally, scaling out of positions by taking profits and moving stop-loss orders to breakeven can complement ones’ success.WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS? Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Crude Oil: not a one-way street, but still bulls in charge

Alex Kuptsikevich 29.03.2022 09:50

Brent lost 7.7% to $106.4 on Monday on fears of a drop in demand due to a lockdown in Shanghai, China's financial hub. In addition, the Saudi and Yemeni cease-fire and the upcoming Ukraine-Russia talks in Turkey helped reduce the heat on the energy market.However, Monday's decline looks like only a temporary respite, and all these factors are still too weak to break the momentum that has been sustained since December. Brent has gained 2% since Tuesday morning to $108.5, with buyers buoyed by reports that Saudi Arabia might raise the selling price of its Oil by as much as 5% in May. The pipeline accident in the Caspian Sea and falling exports from Russia are also on the side of oil bulls right now.OPEC has denied plans to accelerate quota increases at its next monthly meeting on 31 March. Cartel officials also note that it is not yet possible to replace Oil from Russia entirely.Meanwhile, Iran's nuclear programme talks have taken a few steps back, removing hopes of a supply surge from the market.US oil producers are in no hurry to exploit market conditions. The number of working rigs is increasing, but no production increase has taken place so far, which has averaged 11.6 million barrels per day over the last six months. US commercial oil inventories are now 17.8% lower than a year ago.Oil has remained in a bull market even though its movements are no longer unidirectional. From a state of panic buying in early March, Oil has become more pragmatic. Its price now looks high compared with levels a year and two years ago, but from 2011 to 2014, it traded around current levels, with demand being notably weaker.A period of heightened geopolitical uncertainty is setting up a $100-120 Brent range in the coming weeks. A break in the upward trend will only occur with a final turn towards détente.

Bitcoin has become a leading indicator of investor sentiment

Alex Kuptsikevich 29.03.2022 08:51

BTC is up 4% on Monday, ending the day around $48K, and corrected by about 1% to $47.5K on Tuesday morning. Ethereum was up 1.8% in the last 24 hours to $3.4K. Terra is a leader of the day According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market increased by 1% over the day, to $2.15 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index fell by 0.1 points to 42.1%. The crypto-currency index of fear and greed rose by 11 points over the day, to 60, and moved from neutral level to the "greed" grade. On Tuesday, the index dropped to 56 points. Among the leading altcoins, Terra soared by 10%, Doge corrected by 2%. In most others, there is a slight correction in the growth of the last days, but they are in positive territory over the last day. Bitcoin continued to rise on Monday after it broke through the strong resistance of the February highs around $45K in the previous evening. By the end of the day, BTC has renewed the highs of early January above $48K, having won back the decline since the beginning of the year. Bitcoin is correlating with S&P500 The growth of the first cryptocurrency rested on the 200-day moving average ($48.2K). Confident consolidation above it promises to strengthen and expand the growth of the entire crypto market and breathe fresh impetus into the growth of bitcoin. In December, we saw a false break, but then the price levels were higher, and corrective sentiment intensified in the stock markets. Now Bitcoin is growing along with the rise of stock indices and often even acts as a leading indicator of investor sentiment. According to Arcane Research, BTC's correlation with the S&P 500 stock indicator recently hit a 17-month high. According to CoinShares, institutions invested $193 million in crypto funds last week, and it was the most significant amount in three months. Glassnode believes that the Bitcoin trend has already changed to bullish, as evidenced by the increase in the number of addresses accumulating BTC.

US ADP Employment March Preview: Private job creation slows while yield curve flattens

FXStreet News 29.03.2022 16:43

US ADP payrolls are foreseen at 438K in March, NFP at 475K.US yield curve is flattening, rings recession alarm amid 50-bps May Fed rate hike bets.Fed Chair Powell believes the labor market is strong enough, recession unlikely.The US private sector hiring is seen slowing in March after the American companies added more jobs than expected in February. The US ADP private employment report, due on Wednesday at 12.15 GMT, usually provides a good hint at Friday’s full jobs report, so investors will be looking for clues on any potential labor market slowdown.Pace of jobs creation slows in the USThe Automatic Data Processing (ADP) is forecast to show that US companies have created 438,00 new jobs in March, less than the previous month’s addition of 475,000. In February, business payrolls rose more than the expected 375,000 figure. ADP’s payroll data represent firms employing nearly 26 million workers in the US and its monthly release shows the employment change in the economy.Source: FXStreetOn Friday, the US Labor Department will release the Nonfarm Payrolls, which is expected to show that the economy has likely added 475,000 new jobs in March after a surprise increase of 678,000 reported in February.The Automatic Data Processing ADP jobs report is usually considered a proxy to the official Nonfarm Payrolls figures, which will be released on Friday, April 1.The disparity between the two indicators in recent months, however, makes the ADP result unreliable to gauge the NFP trend and, therefore, could have a limited market impact.US yield curve flattens, Fed remains hawkishHeading into the monthly payrolls data, the Russia-Ukraine conflict rages on while the odds of a 50-basis points (bps) Fed rate hike in May almost appears a done deal.Against this backdrop, the yields on the US Treasuries have rallied to three-year highs, although the increase in the longer-dated yields has failed to match the pace of the advance in the shorter ones. The spread between the two- and 10-year yields narrowed to its lowest since early 2020 on Tuesday. The flattening of the yield curve is usually indicative of a likely recession, as investors remain worried that the aggressive Fed’s tightening would damage the US economy over the longer term.At the March FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the labor market is strong enough that a recession is unlikely. Although Powell remains optimistic about the economy and labor market, he said in his speech last week, “this is a labor market that is out of balance," adding "we need the labor market to be sustainably tight."To concludeMarkets are pricing in a roughly 60% chance of a 50-bps rate hike at the Fed’s May meeting.A slowdown in the hiring pace in the world’s biggest economy could likely feed the risks of a recession, especially in the face of soaring inflation. This could pour cold water on the recent Fed’s hawkishness.The ADP report, however, is unlikely to have any major impact on the US dollar and other related markets. Friday’s NFP release will hold the key to gauging the Fed’s policy action going forward.

MATIC Price – Wait For The Trigger!

Richard Nasr 01.04.2022 13:03

MATIC is overall bullish and now approaching the lower brown trendline so we will be looking for buy setups on lower timeframeson Daily: MATIC formed a valid wedge pattern in red, but it is not ready to go yet. Before we buy, we want the bulls to take over. Trigger => Waiting for a momentum candle close above the last high in gray to buy. Meanwhile, until the buy is activated, MATIC can still trade lower to form a new low before trading higher. (projection in purple) Good luck!All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!~Rich

CFD Update: HK50, breakout setting up new move to retest trendline?

8 eightcap 04.04.2022 10:20

Looking at the HK50 today, we can see price has started to break out of its consolidation pattern. Last month we discussed the plunge we saw on the HK50 as price crashed back to 18,139. Things changed dramatically as buyers surged price higher, adding 10% in one session. Since that session, we have been watching the consolidation pattern as it started to form and then continued to develop. The pattern took on an ascending triangle shape. These are normally seen as bullish continuation type patterns. This fits in nicely in this situation as price is trading in a new uptrend after buyers broke the fast downtrend back in March. Today buyers took the next step with a breakout of the pattern. So far, so good as price continues to trade above last week’s highs. We want to see price close above 22,450 to confirm the break. A move back inside the range casts doubt on buyer momentum. If we do see a newly confirmed break, we would like to see buyers break the first level of resistance. A break of that level, and we would look for a possible move that could retest the main downtrend line. Step one for bulls is to confirm the break and beat resistance. HK50 D1 Chart The post CFD Update: HK50, breakout setting up new move to retest trendline? appeared first on Eightcap.

MATIC Price Prediction: Polygon price set to jump as tailwinds broaden

FXStreet News 07.04.2022 16:31

Polygon price sees bulls performing kneejerk reaction in the RSI. MATIC price gains 2% during ASIA PAC and European session, set to rally back above $1.60. Expect to see MATIC close the trading week with gains and price near $1.75. Polygon (MATIC) price sees bulls performing a blow to bears with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) nudging upwards, triggering a bit of profit-taking amongst nervous short-sellers that possibly will not see their profit target met at $1.40 or $1.30. Up until Wednesday, MATIC price was dragging a lot of tail risk with it, but after the Fed Minutes, comments from US President Joe Biden and more sanctions on Russia coming from the EU, investors have all the pieces of the puzzle to move forward and place their investments. A warm tailwind joins Polygon price and could set the tone for Friday, rallying back to new highs for April. MATIC price is set to pop above $1.75 and the 200-day SMA Polygon price is performing a kneejerk reaction that hurts bears in the process. The renewed interest and trust in cryptocurrencies comes from investors fearing the Fed would make a policy mistake, trapping investors with hefty losses. Cryptocurrencies are always first on the chopping block in case a safe-haven flow is triggered. With a decent amount of tail risks fading or being resolved, investors see a window of opportunity to enjoy some new gains in the cryptocurrency markets, with MATIC as one of the ideal candidates. MATIC price is set to return up to $1.60, turning the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the historic pivotal level at $1.57 back into support. From there, it is the ideal jumping point to stretch further and try to top $1.75, which falls in line with the 200-day SMA. If bulls can pull that off, and with the RSI not yet in overbought territory, new highs for the year could be just around the corner. MATIC/USD daily chart With more embargoes and sanctions being issued, the economic situation for Russia could start to bite even more. The US has already warned other countries not to make deals with Russia, or sanctions could be coming to them in an attempt to isolate Vladimir Putin completely. Should Russia retaliate with nuclear weapons, expect to see a sharp nosedive drop towards $1.20.

The Swing Overview - Week 13 2022

Purple Trading 11.04.2022 06:41

The Swing Overview - Week 13 Equity indices closed the first quarter of 2022 in a loss under the influence of geopolitical tensions. The Czech koruna strengthened as a result of the CNB raising interest rates to 5%, the highest since 2001. The US supports the oil market by releasing 180 million barrels from its strategic reserves. War in Ukraine The war in Ukraine has been going on for more than a month and there is still no end in sight. Ongoing diplomatic negotiations have not led to a result yet. Meanwhile, Russian President Putin has decided that European countries will pay for Russian gas in rubles. This has been described as blackmailing from Europe's point of view and is not in line with the gas supply contracts that have been concluded. A way around this is to open an account with Gazprombank where the gas can be paid for in euros. Geopolitical tensions are therefore still ongoing and are having a negative effect on stock markets. Equity indices have had their worst quarter since 2020 US and European equities posted their biggest quarterly loss since the beginning of 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic broke out and the global economy was in crisis. Portfolio rebalancing at the end of the quarter boosted demand for bonds and kept yields lower. On Tuesday, the yield curve briefly inverted, meaning that short-term bonds yields were higher than long-term bonds. An inverted yield curve is a signal of a recession according to many economists. It means that future corporate profits should be rather behind expectations and stock prices might reflect it. On Thursday, the S&P 500 index fell 1.6%. The Dow Jones industrial index also fell by 1.6% and the Nasdaq Composite index fell by 1.5%. The European STOXX 600 index closed down by 0.94%. Even after last week's rally, as investors celebrated signs of progress in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, the S&P 500 index is still down 5% for the first three months, its worst quarterly performance in two years. Figure 1: SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart The SP 500 index reached the resistance level at 4,600, which it broke, but then closed below it. This indicates a false break. The new nearest resistance is in the range of 4,625 - 4,635. Support is at 4,453 and then significant support is at 4,386 - 4,422. German DAX index The DAX index has rallied since March 8 and has reached the resistance level which is in the 14,800 - 15,000 range. However, the index started to weaken in the second half of the week. The news that Russia will demand payments for gas in rubles, which Western countries refuse, contributed to the index's weakening. The fear of gas supply disruption then caused a sell-off. Figure 2: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart Resistance is between 14,800 - 15,000 according to the daily chart. The nearest support according to the H4 chart is at 14,100 - 14,200. The euro remains in a downtrend The euro was supported at the beginning of the week by hopes for peace in Ukraine. However, by the end of the week, the Ukrainian President warned that Russia was preparing for more attacks and the Euro started to weaken. News of Russia's demand to pay for gas in rubles had a negative effect on the euro as well. Figure 3: The EURUSD on the H4 and daily charts. From a technical point of view, we can see that the EURUSD according to the daily chart has reached the resistance formed by EMA 50 (yellow line). The new horizontal resistance is in the area of 1.1160 - 1.1180. Support is at 1.0950 - 1.0980. The euro still remains in a downtrend. CNB raised the interest rate In the fight against the inflation, the CNB decided to further raise the interest rate by 0.50%. Currently, the base rate is at 5%, where it was last in 2001. The interest rate hike is aimed at slowing inflation by slowing demand through higher borrowing costs. Figure 4: Interest rate developments in the Czech Republic In addition, a strong koruna should support the slowdown in inflation. The koruna could appreciate especially against the euro due to higher interest rates. However, the strengthening of the koruna is conditional on the war in Ukraine not escalating further. We can see that the koruna against the euro is approaching a support around 24.30. The low of this year was 24.10 korunas for one euro. Figure 5: USD/CZK and EUR/CZK on the daily chart. The koruna is also strengthening against the US dollar. Here, however, the situation is slightly different in that the US Fed is also raising rates and is expected to continue raising rates until the end of the year. Therefore, the interest rate differential between the koruna and the dollar is less favourable than between the koruna and the euro. The appreciation of the koruna against the dollar is therefore slower. Currently, the koruna is at the support of 22 koruna per dollar. The next support is at 21.70 and then 21.10 koruna per dollar, where this year's low is. Oil has weakened Oil prices saw the deep losses after the news that the United States will release up to 180 million barrels from its strategic petroleum reserves as part of measures to reduce fuel prices. US crude oil fell 5.4% and Brent crude oil fell 6.6% on Thursday after the news. Figure 6: Brent crude oil on a monthly and daily chart We can see that a strong bearish pinbar was formed on a monthly chart. The nearest support is in the zone 103 – 106 USD per barel. A strong support is around 100 USD per barel which will be closely watched.

Crypto: Ethereum - Altcoin Correction Completed?

Terra USD (USDT), Shiba Inu (SHIB), Polygon (MATIC) Update. Take a Look at What Happened in the World of Cryptocurrency Today

Rebecca Duthie 13.04.2022 19:57

TERRA USD seen an increase Price Today: Terra USD has seen an increase in price since the market opened this morning. The graph below shows us that the price of the coin has been volatile today. This volatility could be as a result of current market conditions and investor sentiment. Terra USD Price Chart Related article: ECB To Shock Markets In The Following Week!? US Dollar Rate Under Pressure As Well! Stablecoin SHIBA INU in the Red Today SHIBA INU is a form of meme coin, this means the coin was created from a meme that went viral on the internet. The Stablecoin SHIBA INU saw losses of -3.95% since the market opened this morning, inlight of the current market uncertainty. However, the decrease in price is surprising after Robinhood Crypto announced that SHIBA INU would be added to their platform for their investors to trade. SHIBA INU Price Chart Polygon MATIC-USD - Polygon coin joining the Robinhood platform had the opposite effect on this Crypto? Polygon crypto has seen a slight increase in the price of its coin since the market opened today. Perhaps the announcement of the Polygon coin joining the Robinhood platform had the opposite effect on this Crypto. MATIC USD Price Chart

KuCoin: Staking Crypto - Cardano (ADA)/Terra (LUNA)/Polkadot (DOT)/Polygon (MATIC)/Cosmos (ATOM)/Tron (TRX) Flexible Promotion, Enjoy an APR up to 6.3%!

Kucoin Blog 19.04.2022 11:08

Dear KuCoin Users, KuCoin Earn will be launching the ADA/LUNA/DOT/MATIC/ATOM/TRX Flexible Promotion at 07:00:00 on April 19, 2022 (UTC). Stake to enjoy an APR of 6.3% (excluding POL mining). The details can be found in the table: Staking Product Promotion Start Time(UTC) Expected APR (*Excluding POL rewards) ADA 2022/04/1907:00:00 2.7% LUNA 2022/04/1907:00:00 2.7% DOT 2022/04/1907:00:00 6.3% MATIC 2022/04/1907:00:00 3.6% ATOM 2022/04/1907:00:00 6.3% TRX 2022/04/1907:00:00 2.7% *During the staking period, in addition to the staking benefit from the project, users can also get a share of the POL mining rewards every day! How to Participate: During the activity period, all KuCoin users can go to the KuCoin Earn website and choose their desired product to stake. Notes: Users need to be registered on KuCoin to join this promotion. During the redemption period, no staking rewards of the staked assets and POL mining rewards will be generated. The user hereby confirms that participating in the staking activity is voluntary, and the KuCoin Group has not forced, interfered with, or influenced the user's decision in any way. Risk Warning: Staking is a risk investment channel. Investors should be sensible in their participation and be aware of investment risks. The KuCoin Group is not liable for users’ investment gains or losses. The information we provide is for users to conduct their own research. It is not investment advice. The KuCoin Group reserves the right of final interpretation of the activity. Thank you for your support! The KuCoin Earn Team Find The Next Crypto Gem On KuCoin! Download KuCoin App >>> Follow us on Twitter >>> Join us on Telegram >>> Join the KuCoin Global Communities >>>

Crypto Focus: A Week of Indecision and Dogecoin on the Up?

8 eightcap 29.04.2022 13:27

It’s been another week of wide ranges with little direction. That’s not to say we didn’t see both sides try. A few of the top 25 saw solid selling, both AVAX and XRP were hit with sell-offs, while the more significant coins like BTH and ETH fought back off lows forming spinner type candles. Bitcoin traded above 40K during the week but couldn’t hold the level. On the positive, 38,900 continues to hold firm for buyers. APE coin had a massive week adding 57% ahead of its metaverse launch. Doge had a massive week, and we will touch on that further below. Aside from its massive jump, the coin can also now be used for rent payments. On the topic of payments, a Dubi real-estate developer will accept BTC and ETH for purchases of luxury homes. During the week, we did see a few small signs that buyers were trying to get a move going, but a lot like last week, we saw those signals fade as selling resumed. A fair few of the top 25 took heavy selling on Friday’s session, and that was refected as the CRYPTO25 indexes were leading the CRYPTO10 index lower. DogeCoin was the talking point last week. The coin is linked to Elon Musk regularly, and once news of his offer to buy Twitter was accepted, we saw a dramatic rally on the coin. Price jumped as much as 30% higher on the news, but the move was short-lived as a touch over 10% was taken off the following session. Since Tuesday, we have seen every direction on Doge as it looks like traders are trying to work out what Monday’s spike meant. Looking at the daily we have a solid looking range in play, and this could set up a straddle play. A straddle is where a trader places buys above the range and sells below the range. (one cancels over an option to avoid being double filled). If that spike is valid, the question that may need to be answered by traders is if we did see a breakout lower, could it retrace Monday’s spike retesting lows set on the 25th or if we break higher could we see a new test of 0.17? Until we see some direction, the market may remain rangebound. Be wary of tests out of the range, as false breaks can be very painful for breakout traders. In all trading, risk management is an essential part of the trader’s strategy. (The straddle example is an example based on Friday’s chart. The daily chart will have changed, and the range may not be in place by the time of posting) DOGE Chart Here’s 4-hour chart as well just in case you prefer it The post Crypto Focus: A Week of Indecision and Dogecoin on the Up? appeared first on Eightcap.

Crypto Focus: A Wild Week on the Markets

8 eightcap 06.05.2022 14:21

What a wild week. Looking at the weekly charts, it just looks like another lower week, but that was far from the truth. Most coins started the week on the sell, with Monday’s session setting new weekly lows. A lot of attention was on Thursday’s FOMC meeting. US policy regarding rates due to inflation has been a key driver, and this meeting was no exception. The FOMC statement surprised the market as the tone looked to take a less aggressive tone. Risk markets jumped after the statement. Gains were across the boards as FX stocks and Crypto all rallied sharply. The USD plunged, threatening to break weeks of gains. Signs looked good on Thursday as daily candles on several coins looked to show engulfing reversal bars. As we regularly see in the markets, you can never get married to anything. The situation changed dramatically on Friday as fears returned around inflation and policy, and gains we watched evaporated into heavy selling that has carried on. However, the question remains – is this reversal a new confirmation of a leg lower? The post Crypto Focus: A Wild Week on the Markets appeared first on Eightcap.

Forex News: USDCAD, could a new push lower be on the cards?

8 eightcap 16.05.2022 11:09

Looking at the USDCAD on the daily chart traders, could we see a new move lower if sellers can reverse today’s rally and break last Friday’s low? We are looking for that low break as it will back up a break of the fast trend and confirm the current bearish CCI. Risk markets look to be back in vogue on the short term, but this could be a short term move as overall inflation has not gone anywhere. There could be a case to put forward that rate rises could start to be factored in, and that expectation could outweigh the actual, but from recent history, the USD has been performing since 2021, and yes, we could see an extended retracement in the market, but fundamentals would need to change too dramatically to change the overall trend. Oil is another factor for this pair, and for now, buyers are trimming earlier losses. So we will continue to watch this pair’s price action, and if we do see a new break below last Friday’s low, we will look to see if it can turn into a new leg lower. USDCAD D1 Chart The post Forex News: USDCAD, could a new push lower be on the cards? appeared first on Eightcap.

Now with Purple Trading: VIX volatility index as a tradable CFD futures symbol

Purple Trading 06.06.2022 08:55

Now with Purple Trading: VIX volatility index as a tradable CFD futures symbol The volatility or market uncertainty index (VIX) is an invaluable tool used by many when analyzing markets. However, its trading also holds great potential. That's why we have decided to include it alongside our CFD futures symbols. Read this article and find out how and when to trade VIX as an CFD futures symbol. What is the VIX index and what does it indicate The Volatility Index (VIX), as the name suggests, is an index that is used to measure the level of market nervousness, uncertainty, and volatility. For these reasons, it is also sometimes called a fear gauge or fear index. The higher the VIX index values get, the greater the uncertainty in the markets and vice versa. However, it is very important to remember that the VIX index is a forward-looking index, so it shows the expected, not actual, market uncertainty. How the VIX index is calculated VIX index measures 30 days of expected volatility of S&P 500 index, it does so by using S&P 500 options (SPX) listed on CBOE exchange as an input. VIX takes together all SPX call and put options and compares the changing demand and price between them. Relationship between the VIX index and the markets The VIX index generally tracks the S&P 500 index in an inverse manner. That is, if the stock markets (S&P 500) are turbulent and investor nervousness/fear increases, the same can be observed for the VIX index. On the other hand, if stock prices are on the rise, the VIX index generally declines or advances sideways. Meet: VIX.f - tradable CFD futures instrument Similar to other indices, the VIX is not tradable on its own and needs an investment vehicle to go with it. And that is what VIX.f is - a tradable continuous CFD futures instrument that behaves just like our other continuous CFD futures products. Its price is based on the underlying asset, which in this case is a specific VIX futures contract. Continuous in this case means that before each futures contract expires, there is an automatic rollover of the position. This will result in selling of old contracts and the buying of additional nearest futures contracts. It is also important to note that since this is a CFD instrument, you don’t become the owner of VIX.f when trading it. You only speculate on its price. How to trade VIX.f futures symbol VIX.f CFD futures is a very versatile symbol that can help traders and investors in several different situations: Buy/long in case of an expected increase in volatility or turbulence in the markets Risk management or hedging vehicle for investors - through the inverse relationship of the VIX and the S&P 500 Option to open a short position in case of expecting a positive economic development in markets Overall, it should be noted that VIX.f futures is not recommended to be traded in a buy and hold manner, but rather as a short-term investment.Symbol specification: Symbol specification Name in Platform VIX.f Leverage ESMA 1:10 Leverage PRO 1:10 Trade hours (GMT+3) Monday to Friday 1:00 – 24:00 i Check out the current trading hours and hours changes Commission 10 USD/lot Currency USD Tick size 0.01 Tick value 0.1 Volume step 1 Min trade 1 Max trade 50

We are expanding our futures offer. You can now trade SP500 index and orange juice

Purple Trading 06.06.2022 11:30

We are expanding our futures offer. You can now trade SP500 index and orange juice At Purple Trading, we are expanding our offer of CFD futures symbols by 2 more. The first one is the notorious S&P 500 index, followed by the futures contract for frozen orange juice concentrate. S&P 500 as a tradable futures symbol: US500.f This is a derivative contract that allows you to speculate on the price of the S&P 500 index. US500.f is therefore a continuous CFD futures symbol which price is based on the underlying asset. Of course, it should be noted here for the sake of argument that, since it is a CFD instrument, you do not become the owner of the US500.f when trading it. Rather you only speculate on its price. Continuous in this case means that before each futures contract expires, there is an automatic rollover of the position. This will result in selling of old contracts and the buying of additional nearest futures contracts. These contracts are split by quarter, specifically March, June, September and December. Trading methods US500.f As with every CFD instrument, with US500.f you can speculate on either rise and/or fall in its price. It can also be a valuable alternative to other CFD futures products we offer at Purple Trading (for example, the VIX volatility index, with which the S&P 500 has an inverse relationship). Furthermore, clients do not pay swap fees for holding a position on this instrument, but only the standard $10/lot fee as with all other CFD futures instruments. However, they must not forget about rollovers. Clients can also use this instrument to hedge stock portfolios or effectively expand client’s exposure to the US market. US500.f specification: US500.f specification Name in Platform US500.f Leverage ESMA 1:10 Leverage PRO 1:10 Trading hours (GMT+3) Monday to Friday 1:00 – 24:00 i Check out the current trading hours and hours changes Commission 10 USD/lot Currency USD Tick size 0.01 Tick value 0.01 Volume step 1 Min trade 1 Max trade 50 Frozen orange juice concentrate - Orangej.f If you're a fan of the movie Trading places with Eddie Murphy, you'll remember the scene with the shorting of the orange juice concentrate futures. Guess what, now you can find exactly the same product among our CFD futures instruments! Orangej.f specification 1 lot = 2000 pound of frozen concentrated orange juice market (taken directly from GBE) Contracts every two months (Jan, March, May, Jul, Sep, Nov) Traded on ICE (US) exchange Orangej.f specification Name in Platform Orangej.f Leverage ESMA 1:10 Leverage PRO 1:10 Trading hours (GMT+3) Monday to Friday 15:00 – 21:00 i Check out the current trading hours and hours changes Commission 10 USD/lot Currency USD Tick size 0.01 Tick value 0.2 Volume step 1 Min trade 1 Max trade 50

Crypto Focus: Prices Sink Lower as Crypto Malaise Spreads

8 eightcap 17.06.2022 13:26

Hi traders, well, another week, another heavy extension lower. This week’s selling really struck home as levels not seen in a while were reached on some coins. The most selling was seen on the top this week as it lost 22% while the top 25 lost 20%. Plenty of mental pain was seen over the last week as coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum hit levels not seen since 2020. Bitcoin came very close to breaking 20K, and Ethereum just missed breaking 1K. Solana hit 25.77, just about retracing the entire 2021 move. Is it a bit late to say the market is internally sick? I feel it is a bit. Confidence looks shot, and this tends to remind me of 2017/2018. Is this different? Could we see a new rally that moves are a more sustainable speed? Or have stable coins shown a fundamental weakness in the crypto world that has drawn trust out of the crypto dream? Sorry to sound so dramatic, but if you compare Bitcoin now to Bitcoin in 2017, you will see some similarities. Sirin Labs has not followed the overall market trend as it has seen ridiculous gains over the last two days. Price looks to have been helped by news that a blockchain-backed smartphone backed by football superstar Lionel Messi is set to be released in November. The market looks to approval as price of SRNUSD has exploded by over 1200% in the last two days. The post Crypto Focus: Prices Sink Lower as Crypto Malaise Spreads appeared first on Eightcap.

The Swing Overview – Week 24 2022

Purple Trading 17.06.2022 16:54

The Swing Overview - Week 24 We've had a week in which the world's major stock indices took a bloodbath in response to rising inflation, which is advancing faster than expected. Central banks have played a major part in this drama. As expected, the US, the UK and, surprisingly, Switzerland raised interest rates. Japan, on the other hand, is still one of the few countries that decided to keep interest rates at their original level of - 0.10%. Macroeconomic data The 0.75% interest rate hike to 1.75%, which was 0.25% higher than the Fed announced at the last meeting, might not have come as a surprise to the markets given that inflation for May was 8.6% on year-on-year basis (8.3% for April). The market reacted strongly in response to the inflation data, and a sell-off in equity indices and a strengthening US dollar followed. The 0.75% rate hike is the highest since 1994 and the next Fed meeting is expected to see another rate hike again in the range of 0.50% to 0.75%. The Fed is trying to stop rising inflation with this aggressive approach. The problem is that economic projections point to slowing economic growth. Retail data for May fell by 0.3%, which was a surprise to the markets. This is the first drop in consumer spending in 2022. The Fed also lowered GDP growth projections and unemployment is expected to rise as well. All of this points to the risk of stagflation. But the labour market data is still good. The number of initial claims in unemployment reached 229k last week, down from 232k the previous week. The US dollar hit a new high for the year at 105.86 in response to high inflation and a faster tightening economy. The US 10-year bond yields also rose, reaching 3.479%. Figure 1: The US 10-year bond yields and the USD index on the daily chart The SP 500 Index The SP 500 index, like other global indices, was in a bloodbath last week as data on rising US inflation in particular surprised. Major supports according to the H4 chart were very quickly broken and the market is showing that it is still in a bearish mood. According to the daily chart, another lower low has formed which together with the lower highs confirms this bearish trend. Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart A support according to the H4 chart is in the 3,645 - 3,675 range. The nearest resistance is at 3,820 - 3,835. A broken support in the 3,710 - 3,732 area can also be considered as resistance. The most important news is behind us and the market could take a breath for a while. The low levels could also be noticed by long-term investors who will be buying dip. But for speculators, it is very risky to speculate on a market reversal in a downtrend. German DAX index The German DAX index offers a very similar picture to the SP 500. The ZEW economic sentiment indicator in Germany for the month of June showed a deterioration in sentiment among institutional investors and analysts, with the index reading coming in at -28.0. The ongoing war in Ukraine is undoubtedly influencing this pessimism. The end of this tragic event is still not in sight. What is clear, however, is that the longer the conflict continues, the stronger the impact on the European economy will be. Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The DAX is in a clear downtrend and broke through significant support at 13,300 last week. The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is 13,250 - 13,300. Significant resistance is at 13,650 - 13,700. A new support according to the H4 chart is at 12,950 - 12,980. The euro has rejected lower readings Information about higher inflation in the US and a rate hike sent the EUR/USD pair to support levels at 1.0370. However, the level was not broken and the euro then took a strong move from this area. Investors seem to assume that the ECB will have to respond with a higher than 0.25% rate hike announced at the last meeting. Figure 4: The EUR/USD on H4 and daily chart According to the H4 chart, the nearest resistance is at 1.0560 - 1.0600. The next resistance is then at 1.0760-1.0770. Current support is at 1.0340 - 1.0370 according to the daily chart. The Bank of England raised rates as expected Rising inflation did not leave the Bank of England in dovish mood as it raised its key rate by 0.25% as expected. The current rate is 1.25%. Inflation may be approaching double digits, but the bank could not afford to be more aggressive. In Britain, economic activity has already fallen and the GDP is falling at its fastest pace in a year. On a month-on-month basis, the GDP in Britain fell by 0.3%. Manufacturing production fell by 1% in April. Figure 5: The GBP/USD on H4 and daily chart The GBP/USD currency pair had a very dramatic week, first breaking below 1.20, only to stage an unprecedented rally later. Anyway, according to the H4 chart and also the daily chart, the pound is below the SMA 100 moving average, which indicates a bearish sentiment. There are also clear lower lows and lower highs on the daily chart, confirming the downtrend. The UK interest rate hike did send the GBP/USD currency pair to 1.24, but the price did not stay there for long time as the pound descended from higher values, underlining the overall downtrend. The nearest resistance is at 1.24. A support is then at 1.1930 - 1.2000. Central Bank of Japan still dovish In the early hours of Friday morning, the Bank of Japan was also deciding on rates. There, as expected, everything remains as it was, i.e. the rate remains negative at - 0.10%. This situation means a favourable interest rate differential between the US dollar and the Japanese yen in favour of the dollar. It is therefore no surprise that the USD/JPY pair has reached its highest level since 2002. However, the weak yen is a big problem for the Japanese economy, as it makes imports of basic manufacturing raw materials more expensive and thus contributes to inflation. Figure 6: The USD/JPY on H4 and monthly charts The USD/JPY pair has reached the resistance level at 134.5 - 135.0, the highest level since 2002. A support according to the H4 chart is at 131.50 - 131.80.

What role does the broker infrastructure model play in your profitability?

Purple Trading 27.06.2022 12:31

What role does the broker infrastructure model play in your profitability? The layout of a broker's trading infrastructure is usually not something that would capture the attention of too many traders. However, did you know that a surprisingly large number of brokers do not send their clients' trade orders to the real market, but rather create an artificial counterparty themselves are market makers? This creates motivation for order manipulation, which, on the other hand, is indeed something that traders should be interested in. What is the broker infrastructure model? The broker model refers to the way in which a broker's trading infrastructure is built to process the trading orders of its clients. While it may seem that way, when trading, an order entered by you into the platform may not always travel to the interbank market where it is then expected to be paired with an order from another trader or institution. In fact, there are models that do not send your trade orders to the interbank market. Instead, they form a counterparty to your order immediately, on their side. Market maker model (MM) Brokers of this type are usually among the larger ones on the scene. In order to act as a counterparty to all their clients' trades, they need to have a really high level of liquidity. However, this could lend them a fair amount of motivation to meddle with the trading results of their clients. If it is a proven broker without a dark past, there is probably no reason to worry. However, there are known cases where even larger brokerage firms have artificially increased slippages, set minimum stop loss intervals, or influenced their clients' transactions in other similar ways. The reason for this behavior is quite clear. In the MM model, all losing client trades go back to the broker (not to the interbank market, where they would end up in other broker operating models). Thus, brokers built on the MM model may have a vested interest in the loss-making performance of their own clients. Figure 1: Schematic of the MM broker's operation STP model From the "straight-through processing", brokers of this type have their infrastructure set up in such a way that they can only match their clients' orders with orders from so-called liquidity providers in the interbank market. The broker in this case charges a commission on each trade in the form of a slightly higher spread and matches clients with entities in the real market. Liquidity providers (LP) The quality of an STP broker is largely shaped by the nature of the liquidity providers with which it works. Another broker operating on a market maker model or a bank. MFT - multilateral trading facility - a type of exchange on which different participants are linked together. Prime of primes - this provider collects prices from the interbank market and combines them with other offers from financial institutions. This LP thus has the ability to provide the best prices to the broker's clients. Figure 2: Difference between STP and MM broker model Hybrid model Combination of STP and MM models. A broker based on the hybrid model has the ability to send a certain part of client orders to the interbank market and act as a counterparty for the rest. The broker thus has the ability to "get rid" of profitable clients by sending their orders to an external entity. How to find out which model is broker built on? Recognizing a broker's model may not be easy at first as it requires at least a partial orientation on the broker's website. The safe bet, however, is to check the broker's license directly on the Regulators website. The information about the infrastructure model is listed there in black and white. Just look up whether the broker is authorised to "deal on own account". STP model brokerage will not have it there. Figure 3: An example of the types of services Purple Trading can perform under its license (source: https://www.cysec.gov.cy/en-GB/entities/investment-firms/cypriot/72454/) What role does the broker model play in your profitability? While there is no way to equate a broker's model with the profitability of its clients, there are certain things that cannot be overlooked. While an STP broker has the same rate of earnings whether your trade is successful or not (because it profits from spreads), the MM and hybrid models can already benefit from your potential failures. Let's also mention the fact that by forming a counterparty to your trades on their side, these brokers potentially have the motivation to manipulate the market to their advantage. So as a trader, you logically have to wonder whether a broker who has such tools in his hand is not abusing them to enrich himself at your expense.

Visa is experimenting on Ethereum's Goerli testnet, Tether to purchase bitcoin

Tether (USDT) Gets Rid Of Commercial Paper, Polygon (MATIC) And Its Latest Public Testnet

Crypto.com Accelerate the... 17.10.2022 09:51

BTC becoming less volatile. Tether replaces commercial paper with U.S. Treasury bills. Polygon launches zkEVM public testnet. Chart of the Week: BTC Becoming Less Volatile BTC’s implied volatility, a widely used measure of risk gleaned from the derivatives market, has recently been falling. This is in stark contrast to the rising VIX, which measures implied volatility for the S&P 500 index (comprised of the largest U.S. equities). This could be implying less cautious sentiment for BTC compared to equities and is also potentially indicative of a typical consolidation phase given the low trading volumes as well. Crypto Fund Flow Tracker The aggregated exchange balance for BTC continues to hover around YTD lows. No significant movements were seen in OTC (over-the-counter) desks’ balance for BTC. OTC desks are typically used by larger investors. Crypto Derivatives Pulse BTC and ETH put-call ratios are at yearly lows. Implied volatilities (vols) dropped again over the past week and are at subdued levels. 1-month implied vol currently stands at 55.3% (vs. 59.3% a week ago) and 69.8% (vs. 73.0% a week ago) for BTC and ETH, respectively. BTC perpetual futures funding rates remain positive (longs pay shorts). ETH funding rates are still mainly negative (shorts pay longs). No notable movements in leveraged traders’ and asset managers’ net positions in CME Bitcoin futures over the past week. Leveraged traders are typically hedge funds and various types of money managers, including commodity trading advisors and commodity pool operators. The traders may be engaged in managing and conducting proprietary futures trading, and trading on behalf of speculative clients. The asset manager category consists of institutional investors, including pension funds, endowments, insurance companies, mutual funds, and those portfolio/investment managers whose clients are predominantly institutional. Crypto Price Movements Crypto News Highlights BNY Mellon, the world’s largest custodian bank and the oldest lender in the U.S., announced it has added crypto to its custody services. The bank will now be able to provide fund manager clients with keys storage for BTC and ETH, as well as other traditional bookkeeping services. Policymakers with the European Parliament Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs approved the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework. MiCA aims to create a consistent regulatory framework for crypto among the European Union member states. Polygon (MATIC) launched its zero knowledge-EVM (zkEVM) public testnet. Polygon’s zero knowledge roll-up with EVM (Ethereum Virtual Machine) technology is a type of Layer-2 scaling solution for the Ethereum (ETH) blockchain. EVM is the software that runs smart contracts on Ethereum. With zkEVM, developers won’t have to learn new programming languages and can transfer their smart contracts over from Ethereum easily. Tether, issuer of the stablecoin USDT, has reduced its commercial paper to zero, replacing them with U.S. Treasury bills, in an attempt to back its stablecoin with more secure reserves. An exploiter who says he is part of the group that drained US$114M from Solana (SOL) based decentralised crypto exchange Mango Markets, returned US$67M to the exchange. Catalyst Calendar Disclaimer: The information in this report is provided as general market commentary by Crypto.com and its affiliates, and does not constitute any financial, investment, legal, tax, or any other advice. This report is not intended to offer or recommend any access to products and/or services. While we endeavour to publish and maintain accurate information, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information in this report nor do we adopt nor endorse, nor are we responsible for, the accuracy or reliability of any information submitted by other parties. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of, or located in a jurisdiction, where such distribution or use would be contrary to applicable law or that would subject Crypto.com and/or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement. The brands and the logos appearing in this report are registered trademarks of their respective owners. Author Research and Insights Team Get fresh market updates delivered straight to your inbox: Subscribe to newsletters Be the first to hear about new insights: Follow us on Twitter Tags CRYPTO RESEARCH CRYPTOCURRENCIES MARKET PULSE MARKET UPDATES Source: crypto.com

Today's market closing will be crucial for MATIC

FXStreet News 18.11.2022 14:48

Polygon prices fade slightly in European trading but still hold onto +1% daily gain. MATIC flirts with the opening price from Monday morning. It will be important to see where MATIC can close at the US closing bell before going into the weekend. Polygon (MATIC) price is on the cusp of catching up for at least some of the incurred losses for November as price action is bouncing off an interesting support level. With markets being reminded again of the tail risks still hanging over price action, MATIC could receive some underpinning from bulls. Expect to see MATIC trying to squeeze out a small gain for the week on Friday, with an important close setting up the weekend that could hold more gains. MATIC is at a key level that could bring 7% gain over the weekend Polygon price is currently flirting with the opening price from Monday morning during the ASIA PAC session at $0.888. It would be good for morale and confidence if MATIC can close above that marker and possibly above the green ascending trend line and the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) that all meet around that same level. This makes the $0.888 level a crossroads that could see some more follow-through into the weekend, should bulls be able to keep supporting the price action and accomplish the mission to get that Friday close above $0.888. If this vision is carried to fruition, MATIC price would set forth a good weekend as traders would get a hall pass to rally higher toward $0.96. Although that means only a slim 7% profit, it would make sense as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) would not overheat too quickly and could be the first signal that more gains are at hand. With the holiday week in the US next week, a Thanksgiving rally could be underway with $1.18 on the horizon. MATIC/USD daily chart It is a good reminder yet again that the current tail risks are still alive and present and could flair up at any moment. Although markets were on edge on the back of that missile attack in Poland, the situation de-escalated in just 12 hours. However, it comes with an advisory that traders need to keep in mind that the war in Ukraine is far from over. The comments from both Ukraine and Russia on Thursday show that they are still miles apart from one another, and any next escalation could easily push MATIC back to $0.862 or $0.777 on the downside.

Coinbase, Microstrategy, Block and cryptocurrencies rose despite market uncertainty

Coinpaprika News 17.03.2023 15:26

Moody's Downgrade Boosts Bitcoin Amid Crisis. Moody's has downgraded its outlook on the US banking system from "stable" to "negative" following the recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate Bank, and Signature Bank. Despite this, bank stocks have rallied. Moody's cites low rates and pandemic-related stimulus as factors complicating bank operations, and expects a US recession later this year. The recent bank collapses have contributed to Bitcoin's surge to its highest level since June, exceeding $26,000. Trezor Bitcoin analyst Josef Tětek suggests that the current banking crisis may lead to Bitcoin emerging as a safe haven and risk-off asset, as it offers a more secure, transparent, and efficient financial system. Read next: Mike Novogratz seems to see some positives in the banking crisis for Bitcoin and gold | FXMAG.COM Crypto Prices, Stocks Rise Amid Uncertainty Bitcoin's price increased by 2.1% and traded around $25,000, while other cryptocurrencies such as Ether, BNB, and MATIC also experienced gains. Crypto-related stocks, including Coinbase, MicroStrategy, and Block, rose amid market uncertainty and ongoing banking turmoil. These positive movements come as distressed bank Credit Suisse secured a $54 billion line of credit.

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