market trends

BTC/USD BTC/USD has been trading upside as I expected and I found the breakout of the well defined sideways range, which is good sign for the higher prices.   Due to the breakout of the well defined range and the upside trend on the mid and long term cycles, I see potetnial for the higher process after the downside correction.   Upside objectives are set at the price of $29.145 and $29.870 Stochastic oscillator is showing oversold condition and fresh bull cross, which is another sign for the upside movement.   Key support cluster is set at the price of $25.900    

Trend analysis. The market may move upward from the level of 1.0724 (closing of Friday's daily candle) with the target of 1.0758, the 14.6% pullback level (red dotted line). When testing this level, the price may move downward with the target of 1.0737, the 61.8% pullback level (yellow dotted line).       Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis - up; Fibonacci levels - up; Volumes - up; Candlestick analysis - up; Trend analysis - down; Bollinger bands - down; Weekly chart - up.     Today, the price may move upward from the level of 1.0724 (closing of Friday's daily candle) with the target of 1.0758, the 14.6% pullback level (red dotted line). When testing this level, the price may move downward with the target of 1.0737, the 61.8% pullback level (yellow dotted line). Alternatively, the price may move upward from the level of 1.0724 (closing of Friday's daily candle) with the target of 1.0758, the 14.6% pullback level (red dotted line). When testing this level, the price may continue to move upwards with the target of 1.0794, the 23.6% pullback level (red dotted line).  

GBP/USD may start moving upward this week, starting from the level of 1.2344 (closing of the last weekly candle) to 1.2499, which is a historical resistance level (blue dashed line). Upon reaching this price, the pair will climb further to 1.2678, which is an upper fractal (red dashed line).   Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis - upward Fibonacci levels - upward Volumes - upward Candlestick analysis - upward Trend analysis - downward Bollinger bands - upward Monthly chart - upward       All these point to an upward movement in GBP/USD. Conclusion: Most likely, the pair will have a bullish trend, with no first lower shadow on the weekly white candle (Monday - upward) and a second upper shadow (Friday - downward).   So during the week, pound will rise from 1.2344 (closing of the last weekly candle) to the historical resistance level at 1.2499 (blue dashed line), and then head to the upper fractal at 1.2678 (red dashed line).   Alternatively, the quote could go up from 1.2344 (closing of last week's candle) to the historical resistance level at 1.2499 (blue dashed line), and then turn around and fall down to the 38.2% retracement level at 1.2342 (red dashed line).  

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of Daily Price Movement of S&P 500 Index, Monday May 29, 2023   With the price movement in the channel that dips upwards and the two Moving Averages which are still in Golden Cross condition on the daily chart, we can see that Buyers are still dominating the S&P 500 index so that in the next few days #SPX has the potential to appreciate an upward rally up to penetrate above the level of 4216.17 and if this level is successfully broken above then the SPX still has the potential to go to the upper line of the bullish channel and/or the level of 4324.96 but please also pay attention if there is a downward correction which is indicated by the appearance of deviations between price movements and the MACD indicator because if a correction occurs If it breaks below the level of 4070.35 then all scenarios of a rally up above that have been described previously will become invalid.        

EUR: Can China come to the euro's rescue? EUR/USD has quietly slipped below support at 1.0700/1.0720 and may be gently making its way to the March lows at 1.0515/0530. As we mentioned last week, we think   EUR/USD is relatively cheap given the massive reversal in energy prices over the last year and that, in time, the 1.05/1.07 area will come to be seen as a summer base.   Helping that proposition would be some kind of recovery in China. The release of the China Beige Book has shown some recovery in the China manufacturing sector in May.   Official May Chinese PMI figures are released later this week. A bounceback here, helping to reverse the recent run-up in USD/CNH, could provide the euro with some support.   For today, the eurozone focus will be on the release of industrial and consumer confidence figures for May. Consensus expects some further deterioration here and if so this should keep EUR/USD on the soft side. We will also hear from a raft of ECB speakers today.   Expect more hawkish rhetoric especially in advance of the May eurozone CPI data on Thursday. Consensus expects core eurozone CPI to edge lower to 5.5% year-on-year in May. Another upside surprise here – feeding the sticky inflation narrative – warns that investors could return to pricing a 4.00% ECB deposit rate.   - Chris Turner

With the White House and Republican leaders agreeing a deal on the debt ceiling at the weekend markets are now obsessing about whether the deal will get the necessary votes to pass into law, as partisan interests line up to criticise the deal.   With the deadline for a deal now said to be next Monday, 5th June a vote will need to go forward by the end of the week, with ratings agencies already sharpening their pencils on downgrades for the US credit rating. European markets sank sharply yesterday along with bond yields, as markets started to fret about a recession, while oil prices sank 4% over demand concerns. US markets also struggled for gains although the Nasdaq 100 has continued to outperform as a small cohort of tech stocks contrive to keep US markets afloat. As we look towards today's European open and the end of the month, we look set for further declines after Asia markets slid on the back of another set of weak China PMIs for May. We'll also be getting another look at how things are looking with respect to economic conditions in Europe, as well as an insight into some key inflation numbers, although core prices will be missing from this snapshot. French Q1 GDP is expected to be confirmed at 0.2% while headline CPI inflation for May is expected to slow from 6.9% to 6.4%. Italian Q1 GDP is also expected to be confirmed at 0.5, and headline CPI for May is expected to slow from 8.7% to 7.5%. We finish up with the flash CPI inflation numbers from Germany, which is also expected to see a slowdown in headline from 7.6% to 6.7% in May. While this is expected to offer further encouragement that headline inflation in Europe is slowing, that isn't the problem that is causing investors sleepless nights. It's the level of core inflation and for that we'll have to wait until tomorrow and EU core CPI numbers for May, which aren't expected to show much sign of slowing.   We'll also get another insight into the US jobs markets and the number of vacancies in April, which is expected to fall from 9.59m in March to 9.4m. While a sizeable drop from the levels we were seeing at the end of last year of 11m, the number of vacancies is still over 2m above the levels 2 years ago, and over 3m above the levels they were pre-pandemic. The size of this number suggests that the labour market still has some way to go before we can expect to see a meaningful rise in the unemployment rate off its current low levels of 3.4%. EUR/USD – slipped to the 1.0673 area before rebounding with the 1.0610 area the next key support. We need to see a rebound above 1.0820 to stabilise.   GBP/USD – rebounded from the 1.2300 area with further support at the April lows at 1.2270. Pushed back to the 1.2450 area and the 50-day SMA, before slipping back. A move through 1.2460 is needed to open up the 1.2520 area.   EUR/GBP – slid to a 5-month low yesterday at 0.8628 just above the next support at 0.8620. A move below 0.8620 opens up the December 2022 lows at 0.8558. Main resistance remains at the 0.8720 area.   USD/JPY – ran into some selling pressure at 140.90 yesterday, slipping back to the 139.60 area which is a key support area. A break below 139.50 could see a return to the 137.00 area, thus delaying a potential move towards 142.50 which is the 61.8% retracement of the down move from the recent highs at 151.95 and lows at 127.20.   FTSE100 is expected to open 22 points lower at 7,500   DAX is expected to open 64 points lower at 15,845   CAC40 is expected to open 34 points lower at 7,175

  Gold shorts certainly worked perfectly on Friday with a $19 drop from the high of the day. Longs at strong support at 1938/34 worked perfectly yesterday as we held above 1930. We wrote: ''Gold remains oversold on the daily chart so a good chance of another bounce from this strong support at 1938/34 to target 1945/47, perhaps as far as first resistance at 1952/57. Take profits on any remaining longs here if you do manage to buy at 1938/34.''   An easy profit of up to 15 points on our longs. However shorts here were stopped above 1960. Note the bullish engulfing candle after we bounced from the 100 day moving average in severely oversold conditions.   Strong resistance at 1963/66 today. Shorts need stops above 1971. A break higher see 1966/63 act as strong support so try to reverse & buy in to a long with stop below 1960, targeting 1975, perhaps as far as strong resistance at 1984/88 for profit taking. Try shorts with stop above 1992.   Silver longs at my buying opportunity at the 38.2% Fibonacci, 100 week & 500 day moving average support at 2280/65 worked perfectly on Friday, after I gave the signal on Thursday, so there was no excuse for missing this trade!   Targets for our longs of 2315 & 2330 were both hit to add to our profits for the week.   I expect strong resistance at 2340/50 again today. Shorts need stops above 2365.   We can try longs again this week at 2280/65 with stops below 2250. However a break below 2250 would be an important longer term sell signal. First target would be 2200/2190.

Analysis of transactions and tips for trading EUR/USD The price test of 1.0719, coinciding with the significant rise of the MACD line from zero, limited the upward potential of the pair. Even so, market players continue to buy in anticipation of further interest rate hikes despite inflation in the eurozone starting to slow down. Clearly, market players do not expect any changes in the European Central Bank's monetary policy.     The empty economic calendar today will push traders to focus on upcoming US labor market data, as growth in unemployment and disappointing non-farm payrolls will convince the Fed to continue its tight approach to monetary policy. Only a pause in the rate hike cycle will weaken dollar demand and lead to a further rise in EUR/USD.     For long positions: Buy when euro hits 1.0780 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0816. Growth could occur. However, when buying, traders should make sure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it. Euro can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.0754, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0780 and 1.0816.   For short positions: Sell when euro reaches 1.0754 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0722. Pressure may return amid very good labor market statistics in the US. However, when selling, traders should make sure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Euro can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.0780, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0754 and 1.0722.       What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy EUR/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell EUR/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market   Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.  

On Friday, there will be a few macroeconomic reports, but all of them will be very important. Neither the European Union nor the United Kingdom will issue data today. All the information will come from the US. There will be three reports, two of which are of the highest significance. Nonfarm Payrolls show the number of jobs created in a month outside the agricultural sector. This is a key labor market indicator. It is expected that 180-190 thousand jobs were created in May. Any number lower than this will be considered negative.       The unemployment rate is the second key labor market indicator. It is expected that by the end of May, the rate will increase to 3.5%. However, even 3.6% should not shock traders as it is still a very low value, close to the lowest one recorded 50 years ago. The average hourly earnings is the last report that will be issued today.   This indicator has a direct impact on the inflation rate. The annual increase in wages should not exceed the previous month's value. However, this data is less significant than the first two reports. Analysis of fundamental events:     There are no fundamental events planned for Friday. In recent days, both pairs have been showing a persistent desire to grow, which is not always justified by specific factors. If the growth in the euro makes sense, the pound's appreciation is raising many questions. However, the short-term trend has changed to ascending for both pairs. Thus, further growth can be expected unless the reports from the US are much stronger than the forecasts.   General conclusions: On Friday, there will be two important reports. Both of them will be published at the start of the US trading session. There will be no important events in the first half of the day. Also, yesterday, it was reported that the US House of Representatives approved an increase in the debt ceiling. Thus, there will be no default in the US. Yesterday's fall in the dollar was partially caused by this event. However, it is not logical. The market could have priced in the approval of the increase (since there were no other options, really), and now it could be benefiting from short orders. Nevertheless, we still expect a stronger drop from the euro and the pound.   Basis trading rules: 1) The strength of a signal is judged by the time it took to form the signal (a bounce or overcoming level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal is. 2) If two or more trades were opened around any level based on false signals, then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored. 3) In a flat market, any pair can form a multitude of false signals or not form them at all. In any case, at the first signs of a flat movement, it is better to stop trading. 4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and the middle of the US one when all trades should be manually closed. 5) In the 30-minute period, you can trade using signals from the MACD indicator only when there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel. 6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 pips), they should be considered as a support or resistance area.     What we see on the chart: Price levels of support and resistance are levels that act as targets when opening buy or sell orders. Take profit levels can be placed near them. Red lines are channels or trend lines that show the current trend and indicate in which direction it is preferable to trade now. MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and signal line, that is an auxiliary indicator, which can also be used as a source of signals. Important speeches and reports (always included in the macroeconomic calendar) can have a significant influence on the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, you should trade with maximum caution or exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners should remember that not every trade can be profitable. A clear strategy and money management are key to success in long-term trading.      

FXMAG.COM: Do you expect any radical moves of EUR/GBP price in the near future? What can cause such fluctuations?  As forex traders keenly observe the EUR/GBP currency pair, there is speculation surrounding the likelihood of substantial price movements in the near future. Examining the underlying factors that can trigger notable fluctuations is essential for making informed decisions in the market.   Macroeconomic indicators, including GDP growth, inflation rates, and employment figures, offer valuable insights into the potential for significant moves in the EUR/GBP price.   Based on the latest available data for Q1 of 2023, Eurozone GDP growth experienced a 1.3% increase, while the UK maintained a stable growth rate of 0.10%. Political developments exert a considerable impact on the EUR/GBP exchange rate. Notably, events such as the recent UK election or updates related to Brexit have proven to be catalysts for volatility.   Staying well-informed about key political developments is crucial, as they can significantly influence the price of this currency pair. Central bank policies play a pivotal role in shaping the EUR/GBP exchange rate.   The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) periodically announce monetary policy decisions that affect this currency pair. It is important to keep a close watch on interest rate adjustments, quantitative easing programs, and forward guidance statements.   As of the latest interest rate decision on February 2, 2023, the ECB maintained rates at 3%, while the BoE held rates at 4.5% with a slight increase of 0.25% on May 11, 2023. Global economic trends and market sentiment can also influence the EUR/GBP price.   Trade relations between the Eurozone and the UK, as well as global economic conditions, can cause significant fluctuations. Monitoring geopolitical events, risk appetite indicators, and market sentiment can provide valuable insights into potential radical moves in this currency pair.   Predicting significant shifts in the EUR/GBP price is a complex task. However, analysing key factors such as macroeconomic indicators, political developments, central bank policies, and global economic trends can enhance your understanding of potential fluctuations. As of the latest available data on May 23, 2023, at 12:51, the EUR/GBP exchange rate stands at 0.87057. Stay well-informed about the latest news and events to navigate the market effectively and make informed trading decisions.

Unacceptably high core price dynamics will lend a helping hand to ECB officials pushing for a hawkish line The most likely outcome to this week's inflation releases, still unacceptably high core price dynamics, will lend a helping hand to ECB officials pushing for a hawkish line.   Warnings that hikes may have to continue until September will stand a better chance of pushing longer term rates higher even if a subdued economic outlook, and growing doubts about the strength of China's post Covid recovery, should prevent European rates from rising as quickly as their US peers in the coming weeks. Wider USD-EUR rates differentials should only be a temporary development, however, and one resulting from a rise in global rates.   Market participants who, like us, expect lower rates into year-end, should also consider the possibility of US rates falling faster than their European peers, perhaps to sub-100bp levels for 10Y Treasury-Bund spreads.   This is all the more true since European markets have to contend with another dollop of political uncertainty in the form of early Spanish general elections on 23 July. The prime minister called for a vote after local elections defeat at the weekend and the opposition party PP is on the front foot, although it would likely rely on a coalition with another party due to the fragmented nature of the Spanish political landscape.   Spain’s still wide budget deficit (the European commission forecasts 4.1% of GDP this year and 3.3% next) mean a period of uncertainty is an unwelcome development and could lead to underperformance of Spanish government bonds vs peers such as Portugal and Italy.   Early elections mean Spanish bonds are at risk of underperformance vs Italy and Portugal   Today's events and market view Spain kicks off this week’s inflation releases. This will come on top of Eurozone monetary aggregate data and the European Commission’s confidence indicators for the month of May. One theme in European macro releases has been the softening of survey-based data, such as Germany’s Ifo (see above).   US releases feature house prices, the conference board’s consumer confidence, and the Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index.   Bond supply will take the form of Italian 5Y, 10Y fixed rate bonds, as well as 5Y floating rate bonds.    

In the ever-evolving landscape of financial markets, decisions made by major central banks have a significant impact on shaping trends. We recently had the opportunity to speak with Matthew Weller, an analyst at StoneX, to gain insights into the current state of affairs.   Read more   The European Central Bank (ECB) recently made headlines with its "Hawkish Hike," raising its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%. This move aims to combat the escalating inflation in the eurozone, marking the eighth consecutive rate hike since July 2022. The ECB's determination to bring inflation down from its current 6.1% to its target of 2% is evident. ECB President Christine Lagarde has hinted at the possibility of further rate hikes at the next meeting in July, emphasizing the need to tackle inflation head-on. Lagarde made it clear that the ECB has no plans to pause its rate hikes. While the ECB focuses on inflation control, other central banks, such as the US Federal Reserve, have taken a pause in their rate hikes to assess their impact on economic growth and employment. However, the Fed's projections indicate the potential for two more rate hikes this year. Similarly, central banks in Australia and Canada have resumed rate increases after a temporary pause, underscoring the global challenge of high inflation. The ECB's decision to raise rates comes at a time of economic uncertainty, influenced by factors such as the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and potential wage agreements that may further fuel inflationary pressures. The ECB acknowledges that short-term economic growth may remain subdued, but it expects improvements as inflation subsides and supply disruptions ease. While concerns persist regarding the potential negative impact of higher rates on the economy and the risk of a recession, the ECB remains committed to addressing inflation as a top priority   FXMAG.COM: Could you give as your point of view about how the gold prices would behave in next weeks? Is there a chance that there will be new ATH? Gold Consolidates Amid Hawkish Central Bank Actions   With major central banks continuing to tighten monetary policy and inflation still receding (if more gradually than before) gold prices are likely to remain on the back foot in the near term. As of writing, the yellow metal is trading in the mid-$1900s, where it has spent the last three weeks consolidating. Bulls will be looking for a break above the June high near $1990 to signal a potential retest of the record highs near $2075 as we move into July, whereas a confirmed break below $1930 could open the door for a retest of the 200-day EMA near $1900 next.

Oil remains choppy but flat and in lower range Oil prices are relatively flat today, mirroring yesterday’s session which was broadly choppy but ultimately directionless. Crude has rebounded strongly since falling toward its 2023 lows early last week but remains in its lower range, roughly between $70-$80 per barrel and it’s showing little sign of breaking that in the short term. While some believe the market will be in deficit later in the year, aided by the Saudi-driven OPEC+ cuts, which could support prices closer to what we saw late last year and early this, the economy remains one significant downside risk to this amid an adjustment in the markets toward higher rates for longer.   Gold drifting as we await more data Gold has started the week slightly softer but very little has changed, in that it remains in the $1,940-$1,980 range that it has spent the vast majority of the last month. It was a very quiet start to the week which is why gold has basically continued to drift and that may continue until we see a significant change in the data. The Fed last week made it perfectly clear that it doesn’t believe it’s done and its commentary this week, including Chair Powell’s appearing in Congress on Wednesday, isn’t likely to change in any significant way from that. It will be interesting to see if we get any response to UK inflation data as a potential signal of stickiness more broadly but then, there’s every chance it could be viewed as a UK issue, rather than an indication of something more, considering how much more the country has struggled until now.  

The metaverse, a virtual realm that blends the digital and physical worlds, has been a topic of growing interest in recent years. However, data from DappRadar reveals a notable shift in investment patterns. In the first half of 2023, investments in the metaverse accounted for just 10% of the figures recorded during the corresponding period of the previous year. This begs the question: What lies ahead for metaverse technology? Andrey Goilov, an analyst at RoboForex, sheds light on the current market dynamics surrounding metaverse investments. He highlights that the surge in interest in metaverses occurred during a relatively calm period in the economy. However, with the global economy facing the threat of a recession, investors are understandably focused on mitigating risks and ensuring the stability of their portfolios. The uncertainty surrounding the recession has made it challenging for investors to divert their attention and capital towards intangible assets such as metaverses.   FXMAG.COM: Data from DappRadar shows that in the first half of 2023, investments in the metaverse barely accounted for 10% of those in the corresponding half of the previous year. What's next for metaverse technology?   Andrey Goilov, analyst at RoboForex: A surge in interest in the development of metaverses happened during a relatively calm period in the economy. This year, investors are fully focused on the recession and its probabilities. It is difficult to invest in something that you cannot touch when your normal world is on the verge of serious trouble.At the same time, an inflow of money to metaverses remains, though not as lavish as previously. Market participants think that as soon as the situation stabilises, the demand will return.The future of metaverses fully depends on how the US and European economies will beat the threat of a recession. If the economic slump lasts for six to twelve more months, the interest of market players might increase.   Visit RoboForex

In a recent interview with FXMAG.COM, we had the pleasure of discussing the current state of the financial markets with Nour Hammoury, an esteemed analyst from Squared Financial. As investors closely watch the performance of the S&P 500 index and speculate about the future of Bitcoin, we sought Hammoury's expert insights on these crucial market trends. When asked about the possibility of new record highs for the S&P 500 index, Hammoury pointed out that the index is merely about 5% away from reaching a record high. The earnings reports from companies have been promising, with 65% of them showing better-than-expected performance while upgrading their guidance. These factors have contributed to maintaining the bullish momentum in the market. However, the analyst warned that a correction could be on the horizon, especially after the recent rally. The key factor to watch for the next retracement is the index's ability to break above the 4600 level. Despite this caution, Hammoury also acknowledged that the possibility of the S&P 500 reaching a new record high before the end of the year cannot be ruled out. Switching gears to the ever-volatile realm of cryptocurrencies, Hammoury shared insights on Bitcoin's price projection for the second half of 2023. The analyst believes that the Bitcoin bear market has concluded since March of this year. While the cryptocurrency has experienced recent declines, Hammoury sees them as short-term retracements before the upward trend resumes. The time/price method suggests that Bitcoin may experience another leg higher by September, and any downside retracement is expected to be limited above the 25K mark. On the upside, Hammoury identifies 34K as a potential target in the coming weeks.   FXMAG.COM:  Are we facing new record highs for the S&P 500 index? S&P500 is only about 5% away from record high. So far 65% of the companies that reported earnings showed a better-than-expected performance while upgrading their guidance, which keeps the bullish momentum in place. However, a correction is highly possible from the current level, especially after the recent rally. A failure to break above 4600 remains the key for the next retracement lower. At the same time, we can't rule out a record high before the end of the year.   FXMAG.COM: How do you think the price of Bitcoin will fall in the second half of 2023? Bitcoin bear market has been over since March of this year. Despite the recent decline, this is considered another short-term retracement before the upside trend resumes. The time/price method suggests another leg higher by September, while any downside retracement is likely to remain limited above 25K. On the upside view, 34K could be the next possible target within the next few weeks.

As this week's macroeconomic readings unfold, providing insights into the state of the British economy, certain trends and challenges have emerged. The UK is facing a potential inflation rally, with average wages increasing by 6.9% over the three months ending in May, indicating a competitive labor market that can drive inflation higher. This pro-inflationary factor is closely monitored by the Bank of England, which stands ready to react if necessary. The central bank's ongoing efforts to raise interest rates are aimed at gaining control over inflationary pressures. However, the GDP data for May reflects a recessionary phase, with the economy contracting by 0.1% month-on-month. While this decline was not as severe as initially anticipated, the UK continues to grapple with inflation, logistic chain disruptions, and domestic challenges. Despite the current recessionary signals, there is optimism that the Bank of England's measures will yield positive results, leading to a decline in inflation and a normalization of economic processes. It is hoped that with time, negative statistics will gradually subside.   FXMAG.COM: What do this week's macroeconomic readings - wages, GDP, industrial production - tell us about the state of the British economy? Will the recession be deep? Will the BoE continue to raise rates   The UK faces a risk that the inflation rally will develop further. This week, statistical data has demonstrated that average wage over the three months ended in May increased by 6.9% against a rise of 6.7% earlier. There had been forecast an increase but a less expressed one. The growth of wages shows that the employment market is vigorous enough to compete over labour resources through raising payments. It is an apparent pro-inflationary factor. The Bank of England monitors this and will react if needed. The BoE's interest rate will be growing until inflation gets under control. The GDP data for May in the UK reflected a recession. The economy lost 0.1% m/m after a rise of 0.2% in April. The expectations had been gloomier, suggesting a decrease of 0.3%. The indications of a recession were not unexpected. The UK suffers greatly from inflation, logistic chain breaches, and domestic problems. It is doubtful whether the recession will be profound. Most probably, the Bank of England's effort will soon bring fruit, inflation will go down, and economic processes will start normalising. There might be a month or two more of negative statistics.     What does the industrial production reading from the Eurozone tell us about the state of the European economy and European industry? In May, industrial production in the Eurozone increased by 0.2% m/m, turning out inferior to the forecast. Calculated year by year, it dropped by 2.2% after a rise of 0.2% in April. It is very weak data. It was not unexpected, but the decrease in industrial production had been predicted to be less expressed. The statistics are comprised of extremely high purchase prices and increased salaries, and capacity maintenance expenses. At the same time, enterprises cannot count on future improvements and prefer to decrease production volumes, which allows for cutting down on estimated loss. Most probably, the picture of industrial production will be similar in June.     Visit RoboForex

In the intricate web of global economics, few elements have as profound an impact as the price of oil and inflation rates. These two factors are not only interconnected but also indicative of the overall health and trajectory of economies around the world. In an exclusive conversation with RoboForex analyst, we delve into the intricate dynamics that are currently shaping the oil market and U.S. inflation trends, offering insights into what lies ahead.     FXMAG.COM: How long can the oil price rise? Since 28 June, Brent has increased in price by 18% and is approaching resistance at 87 USD. A breakout beyond this level could result in further price growth, with the potential to reach 100 USD. However, the PMI, which tracks business activity in the manufacturing sectors of the US and Europe, fell below 50 again in July. This decline signals a slowdown in economic activity and, as a result, a decrease in demand for oil. To stabilise oil prices, OPEC+ members, particularly Saudi Arabia, reduced production by 1 million barrels per day in July and continued into August. Russia also joined in August, announcing a cut in oil exports by 500 thousand barrels per day. The decline in business activity in the US and EU along with reduced oil production could potentially stabilise the price in the range of 83-87 USD per barrel, but this balance could be disrupted by China and the US. In China, regulators are urging local authorities to accelerate bond sales to finance infrastructure projects and support the economy. The funds allocated for this purpose must be spent by November 2023. China is putting words into action, and this move could increase the demand for oil. Meanwhile, strategic oil reserves in the US have been depleted to the lowest level since 1983, reaching 354 million barrels, as they were sold to control fuel prices. The potential re-entry of the US into the oil market to replenish reserves could further push oil prices upward. On 1 August, it was reported that the US administration cancelled an order to purchase 6 million barrels of oil for reserve replenishment due to high prices. This indicates that the authorities are following a strategic approach to buying oil and potentially increasing demand – by monitoring the situation and waiting for the right moment to buy. In addition, the impact of the ongoing trend towards green energy is adding fuel to the fire, resulting in a lack of investments in the US oil industry. This is evident from the reduced number of active drilling rigs, which, according to Baker Hughes, decreased from 618 to 522 since the beginning of the year. Production cuts, China's economic stimulus, replenishment of strategic reserves in the US, and underinvestment in the oil sector – all these factors act as catalysts for potential further growth in crude oil prices. Consequently, we can assume that the price of oil in Q3 may continue to rise. The only event that could change this scenario is a global economic recession.     FXMAG.COM: Will inflation continue to fall in the U.S. in the third quarter? Since August 2022, the annual inflation rate in the US has been steadily decreasing, and according to July data, it has reached 3%. The Fed aims to achieve an inflation rate of 2%. To combat inflation, the Fed is raising interest rates and reducing its balance sheet to cool down the economy. Additionally, to curb fuel prices, the US government has turned to selling off strategic oil reserves, which also impacts the inflation level, leading to US oil reserves falling to levels not seen in 40 years. As a result, fuel prices in the US have been on a decline since August 2022, and during the same period, the inflation rate has also been decreasing. However, this trend reversed in June 2023. Along with the increase in the price of crude oil, petrol, and diesel prices in the US surged, surpassing the values seen in April. This could have a negative effect on the inflation rate. To control fuel prices, the US government can no longer rely on strategic reserves; instead, it is now attempting to replenish them, which could lead to a further increase in oil prices, and, consequently, fuel prices in the US. Another factor that may impact inflation is the unexpectedly high number of new jobs, reaching 324 thousand in July, compared to the forecasted 189 thousand. The data on the number of jobs in the US has significantly exceeded forecasts for the fourth consecutive month. As more people work and earn an income, the demand for goods and services increases, which is another factor supporting inflation growth. As a result, the decline in the inflation rate may halt in Q3, and if oil prices and job numbers continue their upward trend, we may even see a slight increase in inflation in September or October.     Visit RoboForex

Ferro acquired a 100% stake in Heating Polska, a limited liability company based in Konin, for PLN 9.65 million. In 2022 revenues of Heating Polska (without transactions with the Ferro Group) reached c. PLN 16 million. The cash position less financial liabilities is positive. This is not a huge transaction for Ferro and in the ST horizon we see it as neutral (without any material impact on the Company’s financials, in our view), albeit from the strategic perspective it may be beneficial. Heating Polska operates on the heat pump market and offers heat pumps used to heat buildings and for a warm utility water which comply with modern control systems. Heating Polska provides training for professionals in the area of heat pumps selection and installation, it cooperates with the network of authorized service technicians and distributors.   The Ferro Group has cooperated with Heating Polska as well. This acquisition is part of the Strategy F1R2 execution and according to the Group’s management will support the further development of the RES segment enabling it to provide the comprehensive offer in the heating systems area. The Group’s know-how will increase with regard to the design and selection of heat pumps and specialist training organization which will address the Group’s needs as far as the assembly and maintenance is concerned.         The heating systems segment seems very prospective, however this year it has been reporting material revenue declines and is Ferro’s weakest segment. We forecast the segment of batteries and accessories/ installation fittings/ heating systems (Termet/Tester) generated 48%/ 35%/ 16% of 1H23 consolidated revenues vs 46%/ 33%/ 19% in 2022. In FY22 a sales growth in the segment of batteries and accessories/ installation fittings/ heating systems hit 8%/ 19%/ 4% yoy (mainly thanks to 1Q22 results), while in 1H23 we assume a 15%/ 11%/ 34% yoy decline.   Heat pumps According to European Heat Pump Association (EHPA), in 2022 the volume of heat pumps sold in Poland grew over 100% yoy which made Poland the leader in Europe as far as the growth rate was concerned. According to PORT PC (Polish Organization for Heat Pumps Technology Development) data, in 1Q23 the upwards trend on the market of heat pumps for buildings continued (a 64% yoy growth of sales of airto-water heat pumps) with projections indicating a 20- 30% growth for air-to-water heat pumps and 40-50% for ground (geothermal) heat pumps in 2023. However, in July a slump of the sales growth was reported while the distributors’ warehouses were fully stocked and projections needed to be modified. Ultimately, PORT PC revised projections which now assume that in 2023 sales of ground heat pumps should grow 20-30% yoy with a 20-30% drop of sales of air-to-water heat pumps (in the worst case scenario: down 40% yoy). The return of the upwards trend is expected in 2024.  

Japan last intervened in October when dollar-yen prices were at 150 Fed rate hike odds fall to 10% for the September 20th meeting Japan’s material inflation data continues fell to 3.6% from a year earlier, lowest reading since March 2021 The dollar weakened against most of its major trading partners after soft inflation data supported the Fed’s case to keep rates on hold in September.  Yen traders watched global stocks surge, which put a dent in demand for safe-havens.  Dollar-yen is now rallying above the 144 level as Japanese officials grow nervous that they may need to intervene.  We should start getting some verbal intervention now that we are getting closed to levels that triggered action last fall.     EUR/JPY approaches overbought territory The euro has had quite the run against the yen.  The bullish channel that has largely held up over the last couple of years is showing prices have exceeded the upper boundaries and it might be difficult for the rally to extend.  So far tweaks by the BOJ have had no impact in providing support for the yen, so pressure should build for bolder action.       Oil After an impressive couple of days of gains, crude prices are softening as energy traders await to see what happens with some of the supply side risks.  The monthly OPEC report delivered another reminder that the oil market will remain tight throughout the rest of the year.  With OPEC+ doing whatever it takes to keep crude prices supported, the oil market might see a 2-million barrel supply deficit this quarter. Oil has had a nice run up, but some of that was the Russian-Ukraine conflict which has yet to lead to a meaningful disruption of Russian oil shipments.  Oil prices are likely to head higher, so any dips will likely be bought into. Gold Gold prices initially surged after soft inflation data, but those gains withered away as investors decided stocks would outperform.  A peak in the dollar might be in place, but gold won’t be surging if Wall Street continues to buy up stocks.  Sentiment has been softening for gold as ETF holdings have dropped to the lowest levels since March. If the market becomes even more convinced that a soft landing is in place, gold will probably struggle.      

The everything selloff By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank   The global selloff intensified yesterday, after the FOMC minutes released Wednesday highlighted that the Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to see significant risks to inflation. And if that's not enough, Atlanta Fed's GDPNow printed an eye-popping growth forecast of 5.8% for Q3 on Wednesday, up from 5% printed a day before. Atlanta Fed computes this number using the data available to them at a time t, therefore the number is not necessarily accurate, but it reflects the positive data released lately, and fuels worries that with such a strong growth, the US inflation could only make a U-turn and take a lift. Yesterday, the Philly Fed index printed a surprisingly strong number, as well. This is why, we continue to see the upside pressure in yields persist, in the US and around the world, though we saw some respite in the US 2-year yield that bounced lower from the 5% mark earlier in the week, and the 10-year yield spiked above 4.30% before falling back to 4.25% this morning.   But note that there is more to this story. Long story short, the US Treasury has been printing a lot of T bills lately, and fell well behind the government bond issuance, and the latter helped keeping US liquidity well contained since the US exited its debt ceiling crisis after which the Treasury started refilling its general account. That was supposed to pull liquidity away from the market. But in the meantime, the Fed was pushing liquidity into the system by reverse repo operations, allowing the money market funds to buy T bills and release cash. The problem is, nowadays, the percentage of T bills approaches the 20% level, which is a self-induced limit for the Treasury, and the Treasury will shift back to issuing bonds, instead of T bills. The latter will increase the amount of sovereign bonds in the system at a time the Fed is decreasing its balance sheet by QT, and the banks don't necessarily want to buy bonds either. So, the increasing supply, and the decreasing demand for US sovereigns will be one major force pushing the US yield curve higher. And if the strong economic data translates into higher inflation, the impact on yields will likely be higher. So, yes, the US 30-year yield is at the highest levels since 2011 and that looks appetizing, especially if the risk sentiment sours – due to multiple reasons ranging from geopolitical tensions to China worries – but the downside risks in the US sovereign bonds market prevails. And Bill Ackman said earlier this month that the 30-year yield could hit the 5% mark.  And the upside pressure in sovereign yields is true for other parts of the world as well, because obviously when the US coughs the world catches a cold. More precisely, higher US yields also translate into a stronger US dollar, and a stronger US dollar is inflationary for the rest of the world. If nothing, the energy and raw material prices that are negotiated in USD terms on international markets simply become more expensive when imports are reverted back to local currencies, and that, alone, is enough to push inflation higher in the rest of the world when the US dollar appreciates. The EURUSD fell to 1.0856, the AUDUSD slipped below 64 cents and the USDJPY spiked above 146.50. The correction is in play this morning and we could see the US dollar retreat further into the weekly closing bell, but the stronger dollar trend is clearly in play and it is worrying. Looking at yields elsewhere the US, the 10-year gilt yield has now surpassed the levels last seen during the Liz Truss induced disaster peak and is headed toward the 5% psychological mark while the German 10-year yield hit 2.70%, a level last seen in 2011 as well. Even the Japanese 10-year yield, which is controlled by the BoJ and should not exceed the 50bp benchmark by 'too much', goes up significantly.  As a result, the selloff in equities deepens. The S&P500 sank to 4370 yesterday and is getting ready to test the minor 23.6% Fibonacci retracement on October to July rally, and the base of that positive trend, while Nasdaq 100 is no more than 8 points from its own 23.6% retracement and already fell below the ascending trend base. The Stoxx600 slumped below the 200-DMA and is flirting with its own 23.6% retracement level, and the Japanese Nikkei, which was one of the rising stars of the year, and which recorded a rally past 30% since January, has fallen below its 23.6% retracement and is preparing to test the 100-DMA.   And note that this simultaneous selloff in stocks and bonds is a sign that the market liquidity is draining. Bitcoin, which is a gauge of market liquidity, slumped more than 7% yesterday and traded close to the $25K level. According to CoinGlass, $1 billion left cryptocurrencies over the past 24 hours and Bitcoin suffered almost half of the liquidations.   

Rates Spark: Dis-inversion in vogue If the Fed has peaked, then long tenor market rates would typically be falling – but they aren't, and we continue to point to the reduction in the rate cut discount as the rationale. Medium-term supply pressure pushes in the same direction. And so too do other lower-yielding core rates as they get pulled higher by the made in America bond bear market.   Dis-inversion set to continue as long tenors rates push on some more The dis-inversion of curves is an interesting outcome from the market rates movements of late. Longer tenor rates have been rising while shorter tenor rates have not being doing a lot. This is unusual at this stage of the cycle. Typically if the market sniffs a peak in official rates, then longer tenors rate tend to drift lower in anticipation of future cuts in official rates. Here, it seems the market is fine with the peak in rates narrative, as there has been no material build in the risk for a Fed hike in September, and so far the market is erring on the side of no more hikes. But the big change has been the discount for less rate cuts. This discount has continued to build in terms of fewer and fewer future rate cuts, and that continues to correlate with upward pressure on longer tenor rates.  We continue to view this dampening of the rate cut discount as the dominant driving force to higher Treasury yields, ultimately reflecting US macro robustness. The other ongoing feature is future supply of Treasuries. Bear in mind that the congressional budgetary office has the US debt/GDP ratio hitting 200% by 2050 on unchanged policies. That paints a picture of ongoing elevated fiscal deficits (currently in the 5% of GDP area or higher) and that typically would correlate with market rates being forced higher, all other things being equal. While that alone does not explain why the US 10yr snapped up to 4.3%, it is certainly a force that continues to push very much in the same direction.   USTs are leading the sell-off with spreads over Bunds widening   It’s also clear that the recent up-move in Treasury yields has been made in America. The Treasury – Bund spread has widened, illustrating that Treasuries are pulling Bund yields higher. The same holds true for the Treasury spread to Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs), supporting our view that the rise of the cap on 10yr JGBs was an ancillary development and not a driving force behind the up-move in Treasury yields – especially as spreads between Treasuries and JGBs have been re-widening of late.     Today's events and market view We may see some interim consolidation given that today's calendar does not hold data prone to further feeding the main narrative currently driving the market. The only notable release following this morning's UK retail sales is the final eurozone inflation reading for July. Looking into next week, however, the eurozone flash PMIs could further highlight the contrasting macro backdrops between the US and the eurozone. Only late next week will the focus shift back to Federal Reserve monetary policy, with the Jackson Hole conference starting on 24 August.  

Expect the US dollar rally to extend    The US dollar broadly weakened across the board, helping majors to take some breather. The dollar index fell back towards its 200-DMA, the EURUSD settles above the 1.09 mark this morning, while Cable bulls eye a further rise toward the 50-DMA, which stands a touch below the 1.28 level. But looking at the US dollar and the real yields, the end of last year's dollar really coincides with a peak in 10-year real yield. Both started retreating in Q3 of last year. The dollar retreated relatively faster. And now that the real yields are on the rise again, there is little reason to keep the USD on a bearish trend for the months ahead.   The dollar rally which started by mid-July should further develop, and there is significant room for further correction before we could technically call the end of the dollar's bearish trend. In numbers, the dollar index will still be in a bearish trend below the 105.40 mark. Until that level is reached, investors don't have much to lose for jumping on the back of a bull.  

The Japanese yen faced considerable losses on Monday as USD/JPY surged to 146.23 during the North American session, marking a 0.57% increase for the day. The US dollar's strength has propelled it dangerously close to pushing the yen below the critical 146 line, a scenario witnessed last week when the robust US dollar drove the struggling yen to a nine-month low. Once synonymous with deflation, the Japanese economy has undergone a significant transformation in the era of high global inflation. With Japan's inflation hovering slightly above 3%, a level that many major central banks would eagerly welcome, the landscape has shifted. Notably, inflation remains relatively high by Japanese standards, as both headline and core inflation have consistently outpaced the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) 2% target. Japan's inflation data is closely scrutinized as the prospect of elevated inflation sparks speculations that the BoJ might need to tighten its lenient policy stance. Although the central bank has maintained that the high inflation is transitory, it's worth remembering that other central banks have made similar claims only to backtrack later. The Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) come to mind as examples. In the previous week, July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained steady at 3.3% year-on-year, while Core CPI experienced a slight dip to 3.1% year-on-year from the previous 3.3%. Looking ahead, Tuesday brings the release of BoJ Core CPI, the central bank's favored inflation metric, which is projected to decrease to 2.7% for July, down from June's 3.0%.   USD/JPY pushes above 146 line Bank of Japan’s Core CPI is expected to ease to 2.7% The Japanese yen has posted significant losses on Monday. USD/JPY is trading at 146.23 in the North American session, up 0.57% on the day. The US dollar has looked sharp and is within a whisker of pushing the yen below the 146 line, as was the case last week when the strong US dollar pushed the ailing yen to a nine-month low. The Japanese economy was once synonymous with deflation, but that has changed in the era of high global inflation. Japan’s inflation is slightly above 3%, a level that other major central banks would take in a heartbeat. Still, inflation is relatively high by Japanese standards and both headline and core inflation have persistently been above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. Japan’s inflation reports are carefully monitored as higher inflation has raised speculation that the BoJ will have to tighten its loose policy. The central bank has insisted that high inflation is transient, but the BoJ wouldn’t be the first bank to make that claim and then backtrack with its tail between its legs. Remember the Fed and the ECB? Last week, July’s CPI remained unchanged at 3.3% y/y. Core CPI dropped to 3.1% y/y, down from 3.3%. On Tuesday, Japan releases BoJ Core CPI, the central bank’s preferred inflation gauge, which is expected to dip to 2.7% in July, down from 3.0% in June. China’s economic troubles have sent the Chinese yuan sharply lower, with the Chinese currency falling about 5% this year against the US dollar. A weak yuan makes Chinese exports more attractive, but this is at the expense of other exporters including Japan. As a result, there is pressure in Japan to lower the value of the yen in order to compete with Chinese exports.   USD/JPY Technical USD/JPY pushed above resistance at 145.54 earlier today. The next resistance line is 146.41 There is support at 144.51 and 143.64    

Bearish elements have emerged at a key inflection/resistance level of 15,415. The leader of the AI boom, Nvidia has shaped a bullish exhaustion where its initial price actions’ exuberance dissipated ex-post Q2 earnings result release. 15,135 key short-term resistance to watch on the Nasdaq 100 to maintain bearish bias.   This is a follow-up analysis of our prior reports, “Nasdaq 100 Technical: Minor countertrend rebound” and “D-day for the US stock market as Nvidia earnings loom” published on 15 August 2023 and 23 August 2023 respectively. Click here and here for a recap. The price actions of the US Nas 100 Index (a proxy for the Nasdaq 100 futures) have indeed shaped the expected minor countertrend rebound sequence from the 18 August 2023 low of 14,553 and rallied by +5.6% to print an intraday high of 15,375 during yesterday’s 24 August European opening hour. The upward spurt seen on Thursday, 24 August at the start of the Asian session has been primarily attributed to a strong upmove of +6% seen in the share price of Nvidia in the after-US hours trading session of Wednesday, 23 August right after the release of its stellar fiscal Q2 earnings result. Interestingly, the exuberance of Nvidia that has triggered an initial positive feedback loop into the benchmark US stock indices dissipated as the US session got underway yesterday. In addition, several key bearish technical elements emerged which suggests that the potential impulsive down moves of the short to medium-term bearish trend of the US Nas 100 Index has resumed.   Daily bearish Marubozu candlestick formed right a key inflection/resistance zone   Fig 1: US Nas 100 medium-term trend as of 25 Aug 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)     Fig 2: Medium-term trend of Nvidia & SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF as of 24 Aug 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) As seen in Figure 1, several bearish elements have been detected on the daily chart of the US Nas 100 Index. Firstly, its price actions have formed a firm bearish tone candlestick pattern called “Marubozu”, a long-body candle where its opening price and closing price were almost the same as its intraday high and intraday low respectively.   Secondly, the emergence of such a key bearish reversal candlestick pattern is being formed right at a key inflection zone where the 50-day moving average and the former swing low of 24 July 2023 confluence at a 15,415 resistance level adds credence to a potential future bearish movement in price actions of the Index. Thirdly, the current conditions of the daily RSI oscillator suggest that medium-term downside momentum remains intact. The price actions of Nvidia as seen in Fig 2 have also depicted similar bearish elements where it ended yesterday’s 24 August US session with a daily bearish “Marubozu” and reintegrated below a key resistance of 474.10 with a high-volume reading. The US Nas 100 slipped back below the 20-day moving average Fig 3: US Nas 100 minor short-term trend as of 25 Aug 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) The hourly chart of the US Nas 100 has indicated the potential continuation of the impulsive down move of its short-term downtrend phase as the minor countertrend rebound from the 18 August 2023 low is likely to be over. Watch the 15,135 key short-term pivotal resistance (also the 20-day moving average) to maintain the bearish tone and a break below 14,580 exposes the next support at 14,300/250 (Fibonacci extension cluster & and a graphical support, refer to the daily chart in Fig 1). On the other hand, a clearance above 15,135 negates the bearish tone to see a retest on the 15,415/460 medium-term resistance.    

In a world where economic indicators and market movements can shift with the blink of an eye, staying updated on the latest offerings and promotions within the financial sector is crucial. Today, we delve into one such noteworthy development that has emerged on the horizon, enticing individuals to explore a blend of banking and insurance services. As markets ebb and flow, being vigilant about trends and opportunities can lead to financial benefits. Let's explore this exciting promotion that brings together the worlds of banking and insurance to offer a unique proposition for consumers.     By Michael Hewson (Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK) US non-farm payrolls (Aug) – 01/09 – the July jobs report saw another modest slowdown in jobs growth, as well as providing downward revisions to previous months. 187k jobs were added, just slightly above March's revised 165k, although the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, from 3.6%. While the official BLS numbers have been showing signs of slowing the ADP report has looked much more resilient, adding 324k in July on top of the 455k in June. This resilience is also coming against a backdrop of sticky wages, which in the private sector are over double headline CPI, while on the BLS measure average hourly earnings remained steady at 4.4%. This week's August payrolls are set to see paint another picture of a resilient but slowing jobs market with expectations of 160k jobs added, with unemployment remaining steady at 3.5%. It's also worth keeping an eye on vacancy rates and the job opening numbers which fell to just below 9.6m in June. These have consistently remained well above the pre-Covid levels of 7.5m and have remained so since the start of 2021. This perhaps explain why the US central bank is keen not to rule out further rate hikes, lest inflation starts to become more embedded.                          US Core PCE Deflator (Jul) – 31/08 – while the odds continue to favour a Fed pause when the central bank meets in September, markets are still concerned that we might still see another rate hike later in the year. The stickiness of core inflation does appear to be causing some concern that we might see US rates go higher with a notable movement in longer term rates, which are now causing the US yield curve to steepen further. The June Core PCE Deflator numbers did see a sharp fall from 4.6% in May to 4.1% in June, while the deflator fell to 3% from 3.8%. This week's July inflation numbers could prompt further concern about sticky inflation if we get sizeable ticks higher in the monthly as well as annual headline numbers. When we got the CPI numbers earlier in August, we saw evidence that prices might struggle to move much lower, after headline CPI edged higher to 3.2%. We can expect to see a similar move in this week's numbers with a move to 3.3% in the deflator and to 4.3% in the core deflator.       US Q2 GDP – 30/08 – the second iteration of US Q2 GDP is expected to underline the resilience of the US economy in the second quarter with a modest improvement to 2.5% from 2.4%, despite a slowdown in personal consumption from 4.2% in Q1 to 1.6%. More importantly the core PCE price index saw quarterly prices slow from 4.9% in Q1 to 3.8%. The resilience in the Q2 numbers was driven by a rebuilding of inventory levels which declined in Q1. Private domestic investment also rose 5.7%, while an increase in defence spending saw a rise of 2.5%.             UK Mortgage Approvals/ Consumer Credit (Jul) – 30/08 – while we have started to see evidence of a pickup in mortgage approvals after June approvals rose to 54.7k, this resilience may well be down to a rush to lock in fixed rates before they go even higher. Net consumer credit was also resilient in June, jumping to £1.7bn and a 5 year high, raising concerns that consumers were going further into debt to fund lifestyles more suited to a low interest rate environment. While unemployment remains close to historically low levels this shouldn't be too much of a concern, however if it starts to edge higher, we could start to see slowdown in both, as previous interest rate increases start to bite in earnest.            EU flash CPI (Aug) – 31/08 – due to increasing concerns over deflationary pressures, recent thinking on further ECB rate hikes has been shifting to a possible pause when the central bank next meets in September. Since the start of the year the ECB has doubled rates to 4%, however anxiety is growing given the performance of the German economy which is on the cusp of three consecutive negative quarters. On the PPI measure the economy is in deflation, while manufacturing activity has fallen off a cliff. Despite this headline CPI is still at 5.3%, while core prices are higher at 5.5%, just below their record highs of 5.7%. This week's August CPI may well not be the best guide for further weakness in price trends given that Europe tends to vacation during August, however concerns are increasing that the ECB is going too fast and a pause might be a useful exercise.     Best Buy Q2 24 – 29/08 – we generally hear a lot about the strength of otherwise of the US consumer through the prism of Target or Walmart, electronics retailer Best Buy also offers a useful insight into the US consumer's psyche, and since its May Q1 numbers the shares have performed reasonably well. In May the retailer posted Q1 earnings of $1.15c a share, modestly beating forecasts even as revenues fell slightly short at $9.47bn. Despite the revenue miss the retailer reiterated its full year forecast of revenues of $43.8bn and $45.2bn. For Q2 revenues are expected to come in at $9.52bn, with same store sales expected to see a decline of -6.35%, as consumers rein in spending on bigger ticket items like domestic appliances and consumer electronics. The company has been cutting headcount, laying off hundreds in April as it looks to maintain and improve its margins. Profits are expected to come in at $1.08c a share.        HP Q3 23 – 29/08 – when HP reported its Q2 numbers the shares saw some modest selling, however the declines didn't last long, with the shares briefly pushing up to 11-month highs in July. When the company reported in Q1, they projected revenues of $13.03bn, well below the levels of the same period in 2022. Yesterday's numbers saw a 22% decline to $12.91bn with a drop in PC sales accounting for the bulk of the drop, declining 29% to $8.18bn. Profits, on the other hand did beat forecasts, at $0.80c a share, while adjusted operating margins also came in ahead of target. HP went on to narrow its full year EPS profit forecast by 10c either side, to between $3.30c and $3.50c a share. For Q3 revenues are expected to fall to $13.36bn, with PC revenue expected to slip back to $8.79bn. Profits are expected to fall 20% to $0.84c a share.         Salesforce Q2 24 – 30/08 – Salesforce shares have been on a slow road to recovery after hitting their lowest levels since March 2020, back in December last year, with the shares coming close to retracing 60% of the decline from the record highs of 2021. When the company reported back in June, the shares initially slipped back after full year guidance was left unchanged. When the company reported in Q4, the outlook for Q1 revenues was estimated at $8.16bn to $8.18bn, which was comfortably achieved with $8.25bn, while profits also beat, coming in at $1.69c a share. For Q2 the company raised its revenue outlook to $8.51bn to $8.53bn, however they decided to keep full year revenue guidance unchanged at a minimum of $34.5bn. This was a decent increase from 2023's $31.35bn, but was greeted rather underwhelmingly, however got an additional lift in July when the company said it was raising prices. Profits are expected to come in at $1.90c a share. Since June, market consensus on full year revenues has shifted higher to $34.66bn. Under normal circumstances this should prompt a similar upgrade from senior management.   Broadcom Q3 23 – 31/08 – just prior to publishing its Q2 numbers Broadcom shares hit record highs after announcing a multibillion-dollar deal with Apple for 5G radio frequency components for the iPhone. The shares have continued to make progress since that announcement on expectations that it will be able to benefit on the move towards AI. Q2 revenues rose almost 8% to $8.73bn, while profits came in at $10.32c a share, both of which were in line with expectations. For Q3 the company expects to see revenues of $8.85bn, while market consensus on profits is expected to match the numbers for Q2, helping to lift the shares higher on the day. It still has to complete the deal with VMWare which is currently facing regulatory scrutiny, and which has now been approved by the UK's CMA.

Metals – China's zinc imports surge to four-year high The latest trade data from China’s Customs shows that refined zinc imports surged to a four-year high of 76.8kt in July, up by around 70% from the previous month. Cumulatively, China’s refined zinc imports have increased by 243% YoY to 175kt over the first seven months of the year. Stronger prices of zinc in the Chinese market compared to LME prices combined with healthy demand for galvanizing material has helped China’s zinc imports to recover strongly this year. Zinc inventories in SHFE warehouses have also dropped to a 7-month low of around 43kt, reflecting supply tightness in the physical market, which should also support stronger imports over the coming months. The latest data from the International Aluminium Institute shows that global alumina output dropped by 0.2% YoY to 12.2mt in July as supply losses from Oceania, Europe and other regions offset the growth from China. China’s alumina production recovered to around 7.3mt in July, up from around 7.1mt in July last year. Cumulatively, global alumina production has dropped by around 0.8% YoY to 80.7mt over the first seven months of the year. China’s alumina output has increased by 4% YoY to 47.5mt over Jan-Jul, while alumina output from the rest of the world dropped 6.9% YoY to 33.1mt over the same period.

FX Daily: Peso too strong, renminbi too weak, dollar just right FX markets await today's release of the August US jobs report to see if we've reached any tipping point in the labour market. Probably not. And it is still a little too early to expect the dollar to embark on a sustained downtrend. Elsewhere, policymakers in emerging markets are addressing currencies that are too weak (China) and too strong (Mexico).   USD: The market seems to be bracing for soft nonfarm payrolls data Today's focus will be the August nonfarm payrolls jobs release. The consensus expects around a +170k increase on headline jobs gains, although the "whisper" numbers are seemingly nearer the +150k mark. Importantly, very few expect much change in the 3.5% unemployment rate. This remains on its cycle lows, continues to support strong US consumption, and keeps the Fed on its hawkish guard. We will also see the release of average hourly earnings for August, which are expected to moderate to 0.3% month-on-month from 0.4%. As ING's US economist James Knightley notes in recent releases on the US economy and yesterday's US data, there are reasons to believe that strong US consumption cannot roll over into the fourth quarter and that a recession is more likely delayed than avoided. But this looks like a story for the fourth quarter. Unless we see some kind of sharp spike higher in unemployment today, we would expect investors to remain comfortable holding their 5.3% yielding dollars into the long US weekend. That is not to say the dollar needs to rally much, just that the incentives to sell are not here at present. If the dollar is at some kind of comfortable level, policy tweaks in the emerging market space over the last 24 hours show Beijing trying to fight renminbi weakness and Mexico City trying to fight peso strength (more on that below). We suspect these will be long, drawn-out battles with the market. DXY can probably stay bid towards the top of a 103-104 range.

GBP: Table top mountain The UK rates curve softened by 9-10bp yesterday on comments by Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill, that the policy rate profile would look more like a "table mountain" – the inference here is that high rates would be kept for longer than the need to take rates much higher per se. However, the market still prices another 50bp of tightening into next year, which is 25bp too much in our opinion. The risk of re-pricing looks greater for the BoE than the ECB curve and keeps us positive on EUR/GBP. Levels in the 0.8500/8550 area should be good for corporates to hedge GBP receivables or EUR payables.  

Metals – Fresh stimulus from China for the property sector Base metals prices extended this week’s gains this morning as healthy economic data and fresh stimulus measures in China buoyed sentiment. Caixin manufacturing PMI in China increased to 51 in August compared to 49.2 in July; the market was expecting the PMI to remain around 49. This is the strongest manufacturing PMI number since February. Meanwhile, Beijing has announced fresh stimulus measures aimed at supporting the property sector. The People’s Bank of China has lowered the minimum downpayment for mortgages for both first-time buyers (from 30% to 20%) and second-time buyers (from 40% to 30%) while the minimum interest premium charged over the Loan Prime Rate has also been reduced. China is also allowing customers and banks to renegotiate interest rates on existing housing loans which could reduce interest expenses for borrowers. LME continues to witness an inflow of copper into exchange warehouses. LME copper stocks increased by another 3,675 tonnes yesterday, taking the total inventory to a year-to-date high of 102.9kt. Meanwhile, cancelled warrants for copper remain near zero levels, hinting that there may not be any inventory withdrawals from LME in the short term and total stocks could continue to climb over the coming weeks. Europe witnessed an inflow of 2,700 tonnes yesterday whilst 950 tonnes were added in the Americas and 25 tonnes in Asia. Gold prices have held steady at around US$1,940/oz as the latest economic data from the US eased some pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue with rate hikes. The core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) deflator in the US increased at a flat 0.2% month-on-month in July, the second consecutive month at 0.2% which should help the Fed in getting inflation back on track to around 2%. On the other hand, data from Europe was not that supportive with core CPI falling gradually from 5.5% to 5.3% and CPI estimates remaining flat at 5.3%. The focus is now turning to today’s US non-farm jobs report which is expected to show a smaller rise in payrolls in August.

Analysis of transactions and tips for trading GBP/USD The test of 1.2623 on Monday afternoon, coinciding with the drop of the MACD line from zero, prompted a sell signal that should have led to a price decrease. However, the signal only resulted in losses, as the bearish market did not continue. Data on the UK's service and composite PMI lies ahead, and they could lead to a further drop in GBP/USD provided that the reports show a downward revision. This means that market players should be inclined more to short positions, especially in the morning. If sellers do not show activity after updating the monthly lows, it may be appropriate to consider long positions.   For long positions: Buy when pound hits 1.2621 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2671 (thicker green line on the chart). Growth will occur amid very good PMI data. However, when buying, ensure that the MACD line lies above zero or just starts to rise from it. Pound can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.2570, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2621 and 1.2671. For short positions: Sell when pound reaches 1.2570 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2530. Pressure will increase amid weak statistics. However, when selling, ensure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Pound can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.2621, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2570 and 1.2530.   What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy GBP/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell GBP/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market   Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.  

Threats and opportunities The evolution of demand along with the macroeconomic environment are beyond the company's control, yet they are among key drivers of its operational / financial results. (1) Regulatory changes, (2) technological progress, (3) competitive pressure and (4) the ability to adapt to market trends are identified both as major business opportunities and risks. We believe, however, that Newag has expertise and organizational capabilities to effectively address the these challenges. Valuation and recommendation The weighted average of DCF and comparative valuation implies a Dec’24 TP of PLN25.0/share (39% upside). In the effect, we issue an Outperform rating for the stock.  

Logistics market ​According to JLL 1Q23 data, total net demand for logistics space decreased in 1Q23 by 35% y/y to 1.0m sqm, concurrently with an increase of lettable area of 21% y/y to 30.5m sqm (we note that the developers delivered 1.5m sqm in 1Q23). The most active group of tenants were industrial and e-commerce companies. The vacancy rate amounted to 6.3% (+1.2pp. q/q; ca. 1.9m sqm).      As major risk factors we point to: • Risk related to the demand for dwellings. The company’s results are dependent on pre-sales, which took place in previous quarters. Thus, in most cases a drop in demand will negatively affect the financial data and profitability. We note that in 2021- 22, Marvipol Development pre-sold 376 and 207 apartments, respectively, due to a limited offer and the above-mentioned deterioration in demand. Hence, we predict that the developer will deliver 442 flats in 2023E, in comparison with 910 units in 2022.     • Risk related to interest rate volatility. In 2022, demand surged, which was driven mainly by interest rate hikes implemented by the MPC. The clients lost their creditability, which decreased by 60-70% (according to market data). Moreover, the share of credit-buyers fell from 70-80% to ca. 20% as of end-2022. Nevertheless, starting from 1Q23, creditworthiness started to slowly recover, which has underpinned pre-sale volumes. Given recent BIK data, the number of granted mortgages in June present an increase in y/y terms for the first time since Dec21.     • Risk related to the mortgage bank’s policy. The demand change may also be affected by the bank’s attitude to mortgage policy. According to the latest NBP survey, the majority of sector representatives are planning to tighten credit policy in coming months, despite an improving market environment.     • Risk related to costs. The profitability of residential projects depends on two key factors on the cost side: 1) material prices, and 2) landplot prices.   We observed increased volatility of core material prices in 2022, due to the negative impact of the war in Ukraine, which could leave a footprint on future projects. Nevertheless, the developers decided to increase selling prices and we suppose that the companies will be able to mitigate the above-mentioned factor. Furthermore, the developers reported that in 2023E the key material prices, have at least stabilized, which sounds quite supportive to us. Regarding landbanks, prices continue their long-term trend of hikes and the share of the landbank in the selling price grew from 20% to 22-24% as of now. In our model, we assume that gross profitability will gradually fall to nearly 23% (vs. a long-term average of 23.7%).   • Risks related to the logistics market. The logistics division is a supplementary activity within the company’s business model. As of end-2Q23, the group has invested > PLN 200m in logistics projects and will regain this, if the projects are sold. As of now, we observe a slowdown in the investment market, which is caused by a deterioration in the macro environment and increase in exit yields, which has left a footprint on valuations.

In the ever-evolving world of business, there are always exciting developments and trends to keep an eye on. From legal proceedings to potential IPOs and fundraising activities, the business landscape is constantly changing. Here's a roundup of some of the latest highlights in the business world: Legal Proceedings: FTX's Ryan Salame Pleads Guilty Former FTX executive Ryan Salame has pleaded guilty to two criminal counts. This development has significant implications for the cryptocurrency exchange world, and it will be interesting to see how it unfolds. Executive Shakeups at Flexport Flexport, a prominent logistics and freight forwarding company, is undergoing significant changes at the executive level. This move comes after the resignation of CEO Clark, and it could reshape the company's future direction. Goldman Sachs CEO's Optimism Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon has expressed optimism about a potential Wall Street rebound, but there's a catch. He believes this rebound hinges on the performance of tech IPOs. This perspective sheds light on the interconnectedness of various sectors in the financial industry. ChatGPT Traffic Trends Downward For the third consecutive month, ChatGPT's traffic has seen a decline. This could reflect shifts in user preferences, technology adoption, or other factors. It's a reminder of how quickly the tech landscape can change. SEC's Interest in Bed Bath & Beyond Trades The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is investigating trades made by Ryan Cohen, which could have repercussions in the retail industry. Regulatory scrutiny is always of interest to investors and market observers. Earnings and Market Movements Earnings season is in full swing, and companies like DocuSign have beaten Q2 analyst earnings and revenue estimates. These results can provide valuable insights into market trends and investor sentiment. Mergers and Investments The business world is abuzz with merger and investment activities. From French billionaire Francois Pinault's acquisition of Creative Artists Agency to Summit Materials' purchase of Cementos Argos, these deals reshape industries and create new market leaders. Venture Capital and Startups Startups continue to attract significant investments. Notable funding rounds include AI research startup Imbue, Marian Oncology, and H2 Green Steel. These startups are at the forefront of innovation and technological advancements. Crypto Corner Cryptocurrency news continues to make headlines. From legal action against fraudulent schemes to regulatory scrutiny of industry leaders like Digital Currency Group, the crypto world is navigating challenges and opportunities. Executive Insights In a world where data and insights are crucial, Bloomberg's analysis of the S&P 500's top-performing stocks offers intriguing insights for investors. Understanding historical trends can inform future investment strategies. As the business landscape evolves, staying informed about these developments can help investors, entrepreneurs, and industry professionals make informed decisions. Keep an eye on these stories as they continue to unfold in the dynamic world of business.

 The AI fever has turned the technology into a darling as capital flows to AI firms, pushing crypto further into no man’s land, as fewer people now care about the former favorite in the speculative landscape. Despite the contrasting degree of present recognition, there are striking similarities between AI and crypto. If these similarities are to come full circle, AI is not to be spared for bubbles. The crypto market is volatile, mostly non-regulated, suffers from a limited track record, and there are wide disputes about whether the market possesses any intrinsic value. No matter one’s stance on the latter, there is arguably a broad consensus that these attributes cause the crypto market to stand apart from most other markets. Given this, crypto presents a poor model to be compared to other markets, except if it regards bubbles caused by immature but highly anticipated technologies. In this case, no market is arguably better suited than crypto to set side by side. In doing so, we see remarkable similarities between crypto and the recent rise of AI, including the seemingly one-way street of capital flowing to everything AI. In recent years, the crypto market has experienced two such one-way streets before the capital pools were emptied, causing the bubbles to burst. These bubbles occurred in 2017 and 2021, when the value of Bitcoin, Ethereum and various other cryptocurrencies skyrocketed, only to subsequently plummet by as much as 90% the following year. Not only did prices rise, crypto projects and firms could raise money as easy as pie during the bubbles, as everyone wanted in on the action – then suddenly, nobody seemed to care anymore, leaving only a few interested in crypto. At what point does the market’s collective imagination end? Crypto and AI both have great prospects for the future as cornerstone technologies among an ever-growing crowd. Admitting we fairly share this outlook, we must acknowledge that both crypto and AI have yet to experience wide implementation across the world, having shown limited value creation at present. Worse yet, there’s no way of knowing at what point the technologies will enjoy adequate maturity to be applied widely, if ever. But it is roughly guaranteed that folks will overestimate the short-term significance of AI, as with most other new technologies, including previously crypto. Up to technical maturity, the market judges technologies fairly blindly, based on collective imagination. As Benjamin Graham once said, "In a speculative market, what counts is imagination and not analysts”. Graham, often regarded as the father of value investing, possibly intended his words as a cautionary reminder for any market where guesswork about the future is a main pillar to assess it. As crypto and AI are not yet well-established technologies, the imagination of the future surpasses the tangible aspects of the present, so rather than relying on concrete data and figures, market participants allow their imagination to shape their perception of the industry's future impact on the world and, subsequently, its value. This is likely to truly deviate from how AI is to unfold later on, in the same way it has for crypto multiple times. Besides, this judgment is mainly guided by retail investors. This group was largely absent in the AI rally earlier this year, as many retail investors had reduced their equity holdings upon surging interest rates, but it appears that they have returned in the past few months, particularly to AI-related stocks. We expect the retail flow to continue into AI, gradually turning it into a new darling of retail, as these investors enjoy markets with greater risk/reward, similar to crypto and meme stocks, in which retail investors are highly dominant. The noteworthy presence of this fear-of-missing-out crowd in a market led by imagination fuels a cocktail for promising bubbles. We would be surprised if this cocktail does not involve at least one significant drawback of AI-related tradeable instruments, similar to the history of crypto, and not least the dot-com bubble. We expect the market to eventually reassess its projection of the near-term impact of AI, as the technology matures more slowly than expected and other challenges become evident, including regulatory uncertainty, which AI, like crypto, is likely to suffer from. And, except for a select few firms, the unfamiliarity with the extent to which individual firms are able to capture the value generated by AI adds to the uncertainty, potentially intensifying excess volatility.  

In the ever-evolving landscape of global finance, each day brings its own set of surprises and challenges. From the commanding rise of tech giants to the dramatic fall of the dollar against the yuan, and the intriguing insights into Wall Street's AI revolution, the financial world is in constant motion. Join us as we unravel the recent events that have left an indelible mark on the financial markets. Tech Giants' Green Day Tech giants have once again demonstrated their prowess by leading a remarkable "green day" in the market. The likes of Apple, Amazon, and Tesla have shown that their influence extends far beyond the confines of the digital realm. Their ability to sway the financial tide reflects the transformative power of technology in today's economy. Dollar's Dip Against Yuan In a surprising turn of events, the dollar experienced its most significant drop in months against the yuan. This shift has far-reaching implications for international trade and currency markets. Investors are closely monitoring this trend as it may signal changes in global economic dynamics. Disney and Charter Resolve Dispute Disney and Charter Communications recently settled a long-standing dispute, a development that has brought relief to millions of households. The resolution paves the way for the return of ESPN and ABC to 15 million households, underscoring the significance of healthy negotiations in the media industry. Alibaba's New CEO Charts a Course Alibaba, one of the world's largest e-commerce and technology conglomerates, welcomed a new CEO who promptly outlined strategic priorities. The decisions made by this industry giant have the potential to influence not only the company's future but also the broader tech landscape Wall Street's AI Craze Wall Street has been abuzz with the AI craze in recent years, but is it reaching its peak? Investment guru Jim Cramer has issued a warning, suggesting that the excitement surrounding artificial intelligence in finance may be nearing its zenith. This assessment invites us to contemplate the future of finance and technology.   The financial world is a dynamic and ever-shifting ecosystem where tech giants flex their muscles, currencies dance to their own tunes, and Wall Street continually seeks new frontiers. As we navigate the intricacies of this realm, one thing remains certain: the financial markets will continue to be a source of fascination and opportunity for those who dare to tread its waters. Stay tuned for more updates on the captivating world of finance.

Investing is an essential part of securing your financial future, and the first step to creating a sound investment portfolio is educating yourself on the different types of investments available. Commodities can be an excellent option for those who want to diversify their investment strategies beyond stocks and bonds. Commodities are often seen as risky investments due to their high volatility. Yet, if you're willing to take the time to understand how they work and develop some strategies for trading them long-term, they can be advantageous additions to any portfolio. Here, we will discuss how beginners can start investing in commodities and help create a successful portfolio with minimal risk involved.   Understand the different types of commodities available for investment  Investing in commodities can be an attractive financial opportunity for those looking to diversify their investment portfolio or hedge against inflation. Many commodities include precious metals, energy sources like crude oil and natural gas, and agricultural products such as wheat, corn and soybeans. Each commodity has its unique market dynamics, which supply and demand, geopolitical tensions, and weather conditions can affect it.     Understanding the different types of commodities available for investment can help investors make informed decisions about where to allocate their money, depending on their goals and risk tolerance. With the proper knowledge and approach, commodity investing can be valuable to an individual's investment strategy. Learn more here about the different commodities available for investment.     Research current market trends and the supply/demand dynamics of commodities  Before investing in commodities, it is essential to research and analyse the current market trends and supply/demand dynamics of the specific commodities you are interested in. It can involve keeping up-to-date with global news, geopolitical events, and economic indicators that could impact commodity prices.    It is also essential to understand how supply and demand affect commodity prices. For example, if there is an increase in demand for a particular commodity but a decrease in supply, the cost of that commodity will likely go up. Conducting thorough research and staying informed can help investors make well-informed decisions when investing in commodities.    Learn about the risks associated with investing in commodities and how to manage them  Investing in commodities comes with its fair share of risks, and beginners must understand them before diving into the market. One common risk associated with commodity investing is volatility. Commodities are known for their volatile nature, and prices can fluctuate significantly in a short amount of time.    Another risk is the influence of external factors such as weather conditions, geopolitical tensions, and economic policies. These factors can impact the supply and demand dynamics of commodities and, in turn, affect their prices.    To manage these risks, beginners should consider diversifying their investments across different types of commodities to minimise their exposure to a single commodity's price fluctuations. Additionally, conducting thorough research and staying informed about market trends can help mitigate risks associated with commodity investing.    Determine an investment strategy that fits your budget and risk tolerance  Once you understand the different types of commodities, market trends, and risks associated with investing in commodities, the next step is to determine an investment strategy that fits your budget and risk tolerance. It is important to remember that commodity investing should only be considered part of a well-diversified portfolio and not the sole focus of an investment strategy. Consider the amount of capital you are willing to invest and your risk tolerance before deciding on a method.     Some common strategies for commodity investing include buying physical commodities such as gold or silver, trading futures contracts, or investing in commodity ETFs (exchange-traded funds). It is also essential to regularly review and adjust your investment strategy as needed.    Choose a reliable broker to execute trades on your behalf  To invest in commodities, you must use a broker to execute trades on your behalf. Choosing a reliable and reputable broker with experience in commodity trading is crucial. Look for brokers that offer competitive fees, have a user-friendly trading platform, and provide access to various types of commodities.    It is also essential to do your due diligence and research the broker before deciding. Reading reviews and seeking recommendations from experienced commodity investors can also help you choose the right broker for your investment needs.    Open an account and begin trading commodities  Once you have chosen a reliable broker, the next step is opening an account and trading commodities. Most brokers will require you to fill out an application and provide identification documents before opening an account. Some brokers may also need a minimum deposit amount to start trading.    Before making any trades, it is essential to thoroughly understand the trading platform and any associated fees or charges. Start with small investments and gradually increase your exposure to commodities as you gain experience and confidence in the market.  //

Analysis of transactions and tips for trading GBP/USD Further decline became limited because the test of 1.2289 coincided with the sharp downward move of the MACD line from zero. The report on the UK house price index did not make an impression on traders, and pressure on the pair returned after the speeches made by Fed representatives. But today, pound may have a chance to compensate for losses, after the speech of Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. He should be full of optimism, hinting at the imminent winding down of aggressive policies and interest rate cuts. Pound will continue to fall if this does not happen.   For long positions: Buy when pound hits 1.2285 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2327 (thicker green line on the chart). Growth will occur after Andrew Bailey's statements or after protecting the support at 1.2260. However, when buying, ensure that the MACD line lies above zero or just starts to rise from it. Pound can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.2266, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2285 and 1.2327. For short positions: Sell when pound reaches 1.2266 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2229. Pressure will continue as soon as Bailey comments on the poor state of the UK economy and high inflation. However, when selling, ensure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Pound can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.2285, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2266 and 1.2229.   What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy GBP/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell GBP/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market  

Analysis of transactions and tips for trading EUR/USD Further decline became limited because the test of 1.0681 coincided with the sharp downward move of the MACD line from zero. This happened even though several Fed representatives hinted at the possible continuation of the rate hike cycle and the lesser chance of a reduction in borrowing costs. Today, CPI data for Germany and retail sales report for the eurozone will come out, but it will not have much impact on the market. Instead, the speech of ECB Executive Board member Philip Lane will generate interest, as well as the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.     For long positions: Buy when euro hits 1.0700 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0730. Growth will occur after protecting the support at 1.0680. However, when buying, make sure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it. Euro can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.0681, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0700 and 1.0730. For short positions: Sell when euro reaches 1.0681 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0656. Pressure will increase after an unsuccessful attempt to hit the daily high, as well as weak data from the eurozone. However, when selling, make sure that the MACD line lies under zero or drops down from it. Euro can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.0700, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0681 and 1.0656.     What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy EUR/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell EUR/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market   Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

The world of foreign exchange, more commonly known as Forex, is a dynamic and intricate marketplace where currencies are traded globally. At the helm of this vast financial ecosystem are Forex brokers, playing a pivotal role in facilitating transactions and providing a gateway for traders to navigate the turbulent waters of the currency market. Understanding the Forex Broker: A Key Player in the Market A Forex broker acts as an intermediary between retail traders and the interbank forex market. Essentially, they link buyers with sellers and vice versa, executing trades on behalf of their clients. While the concept may seem straightforward, the significance of a Forex broker in the trading process cannot be overstated.   The Forex Broker's Functionality: More Than Just a Middleman 1. Execution of Trades One of the primary functions of a Forex broker is to execute trades swiftly and efficiently. With the click of a button, traders can buy or sell currency pairs, capitalizing on market fluctuations. The efficiency of this process relies heavily on the broker's technological infrastructure. 2. Market Analysis and Research Tools To navigate the intricate Forex market successfully, traders rely on accurate and up-to-date information. Forex brokers often provide a suite of tools and resources, including real-time charts, technical analysis, and market research, enabling traders to make informed decisions. 3. Leverage and Margin Facilities Forex trading often involves leveraging, allowing traders to control a larger position with a smaller amount of capital. Brokers provide leverage, but it's essential for traders to use it judiciously, as it amplifies both potential gains and losses. 4. Risk Management Services Managing risk is a critical aspect of Forex trading. Experienced brokers offer risk management tools such as stop-loss orders to help traders limit potential losses and protect their capital.     Selecting the Right Broker: Navigating the List of Forex Brokers Given the crucial role Forex brokers play, selecting the right one is paramount for traders. The internet is flooded with a myriad of options, making the process seem overwhelming. To streamline this decision-making, traders often refer to a list of Forex brokers – a comprehensive directory that outlines the key features and offerings of various brokers. Considerations When Choosing a Forex Broker: Regulation and Compliance: Ensure the broker is regulated by a reputable financial authority, enhancing trust and security. Trading Platform: Assess the broker's trading platform for user-friendliness, stability, and the availability of essential tools. Transaction Costs: Evaluate the broker's fee structure, including spreads, commissions, and overnight financing costs. Customer Support: Responsive customer support is invaluable. Test their responsiveness before committing to a broker. Educational Resources: A good broker provides educational resources to empower traders with knowledge.   Conclusion: Sailing Smoothly with the Right Forex Broker In the vast sea of Forex trading, a reliable broker acts as a compass, guiding traders through the complexities and helping them navigate market trends. The importance of due diligence when selecting a broker cannot be emphasized enough. By referring to a well-researched "list of Forex brokers" and considering the key factors mentioned, traders can set sail confidently into the world of Forex, armed with the support they need to navigate and succeed in this dynamic market.    

Global ESG Bond Supply Outlook: Slowing down in 2024 The global ESG bond markets have seen staggering growth in supply over the last seven years. Since 2022, however, growth has slowed, and we think ESG bond issuance is set to continue on that trend in 2024. ESG bond markets have seen staggering growth in supply over the last seven years. A peak of €1 trillion of self-labelled ESG bonds was reached in 2021. However, with the issuance of Covid-19 mitigation bonds dying out, supply chain disruptions, inflation and higher (funding) costs, market conditions have changed significantly. We believe similar trends will emerge throughout 2024 to those seen this year, with some segments slowing down their ESG bond issuance – leading to a relatively stable market compared to 2023. Global ESG bond supply in 2024 expected at €820bn We forecast a global ESG bond supply of €820 billion for 2024. This is a relatively stable amount compared to 2023, which we estimate at €815 billion by the end of the year. According to our estimates, we should see sovereigns, supranationals, agencies, financial institutions and corporates issuing €325 billion in EUR. For the US dollar, we expect the market to stay stable at €225 billion (US$240 billion). For ESG bonds printed in other currencies, we expect the segment to grow softly from €260 billion to €270 billion.   The global ESG bond supply has stagnated since 2022 (in EUR equivalent)   The EUR currency will represent c.40% of total issuance The EUR currency has always led the global ESG bond supply, and we expect it to represent close to 40% of all ESG bond issuance in 2024 with €325 billion.   Governments, supranationals and agencies will be the biggest contributors. With a total of €160 billion expected in 2024, sovereigns, supranationals and agencies will account for about half of total EUR ESG bond issuance in 2024. The EUR-denominated ESG issuance by supranationals and agencies has reached €95 billion year-to-date, meaning levels for the entire year will likely fall behind 2022 and our initial target of €131 billion. For 2024, we are pencilling in a €100 billion aggregate figure. One slowing factor behind the relatively low issuance is the European Union. The EU has become a dominating player in the green bond segment, with 2022 having seen €24.4 billion in EU green bond issuance. In 2023, this figure stands at a meagre €7.7 billion – and there's only one more window for a syndicated deal and two auction slots this year to meaningfully raise this figure. The EUR-denominated sovereign ESG issuance (mainly in green bonds) currently stands at close to €64 billion, which is moderately ahead of what we had anticipated. Volumes in the final months of the year look set to remain limited, pointing to a final figure of around €65bn. For the upcoming year, we see issuance growth stagnating as overall government funding plans could come in moderately lower. We are forecasting €60 billion in gross ESG issuance for the sector in 2024.   EUR ESG supply by contributor type in 2024    

Analysis of transactions and tips for trading GBP/USD The test of 1.2449 took place when the MACD line moved downward from zero, prompting a signal to sell. This resulted in a price decrease of over 50 pips. The sharp decline in UK inflation led to a sell-off in pound in the morning. Then, it intensified after the release of strong retail sales data from the US. The empty macroeconomic calendar today will give pound the chance of continuing its decline in line with yesterday's trend. Meanwhile, the speech of Bank of England MPC member Swati Dhingra will not have much impact to the market.     For long positions: Buy when pound hits 1.2402 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2449 (thicker green line on the chart). Growth will occur as long as the daily low remains protected. When buying, ensure that the MACD line lies above zero or just starts to rise from it. Pound can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.2385, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2402 and 1.2449. For short positions: Sell when pound reaches 1.2385 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2337. Pressure will continue until trading goes below today's high. When selling, ensure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Pound can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.2402,, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2385 and 1.2337.     What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy GBP/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell GBP/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.  

EUR/USD   Higher Timeframes The encounter with the zone 1.0862–1.0868, which merged several strong resistances, did not go unnoticed. As a result, yesterday, we observed a slowdown and some bearish activity. The upcoming days will determine the outcome of the encounter. Bearish activity and a decline will draw the market's attention to the supports accumulated at 1.0756-1.0766 (weekly and daily levels), while overcoming 1.0862-68 will pave the way to the final resistance of the weekly death cross (1.0960) and the daily target for breaking through the Ichimoku cloud (1.1004-1.1065).     H4 - H1 On the lower timeframes, there is a corrective decline, but bulls maintain a general advantage. At the moment, the reference points for the resumption of the ascent could be 1.0855-1.0879-1.0910-1.0934 (classic pivot points). Strengthening bearish sentiments today may occur through breaking the supports at 1.0824-1.0800-1.0769 (classic pivot points). To change the current advantage to the bears' side, it is necessary to break and reverse the moving average—the weekly long-term trend, which, in the current situation, is at 1.0745.   Higher Timeframes As of yesterday, the pound can boast more impressive results than the euro. The market failed to overcome the accumulation of strong resistances, such as the weekly Fibonacci Kijun (1.2458), the monthly short-term trend (1.2471), and the monthly Fibonacci Kijun (1.2505). If bears continue to recover their positions, there is a broad support zone on this part of the market, consisting of levels from various timeframes and located at 1.2346-1.2325-1.2287-1.2248-1.2231.     H4 - H1 Bulls failed to update the previous day's high and continue the ascent, while the opponent, developing the decline, has now consolidated below the central pivot point of the day (1.2437). The continuation of the descent now lies through testing and breaking the supports at 1.2376-1.2341 (classic pivot points). A shift in the main advantage and the current sentiment is possible after testing, overcoming, and reversing the weekly long-term trend (1.2315). *  

Birkenstock Q3 23 – 29/11 – as IPOs go Birkenstock hasn't had a great time of it, trading consistently below its $46 listing price, the shares fell 12% on the opening day, trading down to $36 although we have since rebounded from those lows. They say timing is everything when it comes to IPO's and we can safely say Birkenstocks timing was off, given the sharp sell-off in October. One thing in its favour is that the business is profitable, with the business seeing total revenue in 2022 of $1.35bn, with net income of $202.8m. When the accounts were released prior to the IPO the revenues for the 9-months to June were estimated to be $1.2bn, and on course to beat last year's total revenue number. Themoney raised by the IPO as allowed the company to repay $550m in loans, reducing its total debt to €1.31bn. Will this week's Q3 numbers give the stock a decent leg up?a

Warm weather spells trouble for Natural Gas US natural gas prices experienced a noticeable decline with NATGAS trading nearly 4% lower at the start of the week. This downturn can be attributed to the prevailing forecasts indicating a shift towards warmer weather in the United States in the coming days as the expectation of milder temperatures has cast a shadow on natural gas prices as it suggests a potential decrease in demand, particularly at the start of the heating season.    Projections for the next 8-14 days consistently point towards above-average temperatures spanning a more extensive geographic scope across the United States and this prediction of higher-than-average temperatures intensifies the downward pressure on natural gas prices.   Looking at the technical situation shows the persistence of a bearish trend since the end of October 2023.   This further reflects the delicate balance between weather forecasts, demand dynamics, and market trends, emphasizing the sensitivity of natural gas prices to external factors.   While this appears to be the current situation, a sudden shift towards a colder climate prediction could bring a significant rebound of prices in the near term.   

  DocuSign Q3 24 – 07/12 – slipped below $40 a share at the end of October and the lowest levels since November 2018, as despite an improving revenue and profits outlook, the shares have continued to struggle. We've seen a modest rebound since then, however the shares have remained well below their September peaks of $53. In September when the company reported its Q2 numbers the shares fell sharply despite seeing an 11% increase in revenues to $687.7m, comfortably beating its Q1 guidance, with profits coming in at 72c a share. Just like they did in Q2, management upgraded their guidance projecting Q3 revenues of $687m to $691m, as well as raising their full year forecast to between $2.73bn and $2.74bn. Q3 profits are forecast to come in at 63c a share, up from 57c a share.       GameStop Q3 24 – 06/12 – it's been a slow drift lower for GameStop shares over the past 6 months, after hitting a 7-month high back in June. The summer positivity came about after the gaming company posted a surprise quarterly profit at the end of last year, helped by a $4.5m boost from the sale of some digital assets. There has been success in cutting costs as well as withdrawing from non-core markets, however they have been hampered by some poor decisions, the partnership with failed crypto exchange FTX, as well as experimenting with NFT at around the same time the bottom fell out of that market. The company returned to a loss of 14c a share in Q1, or $50.5m, while net sales fell short at $1.24bn. For Q2 there was a slight improvement on last year with revenues rising to $1.16bn, while losses narrowed to 0.03c a share. Over the last few days we've seen the share price surge after option traders bought a load of cheap call options with $20 and above strike prices, in anticipation of a decent set of Q3 numbers. For Q3 expectations are for revenues to come in unchanged at $1.18bn while losses are expected to come in at 0.08c a share.     

Elsewhere...  The nice jump in the Japanese yen pulled the dollar index lower yesterday. Of course, the EURJPY, GBPJPY and AUDJPY all made a similar move. The US bonds, on the other hand, were little changed yesterday – for once – as traders sat on their hands ahead of this week's much-awaited US jobs data, while technology stocks were on fire yesterday. Alphabet jumped more than 5% after Google released Gemini – the largest and most capable AI model it has ever built, and AMD jumped nearly 10% after the company unveiled a chip that will run AI software faster than rival products. But rival Nvidia was little hit by the news, as its chips gained 2.40% yesterday. The AI demand is big enough for everyone to benefit amply from it.   Today, all eyes are on the US jobs data.  According to a consensus of analyst estimates on Bloomberg, the US economy may have added 180'000 new nonfarm jobs in November, the pay may have risen slightly faster on a monthly basis, and the unemployment rate is seen steady at 3.9%. The fact that the data released earlier this week hinted at a clear loosening in the US jobs market makes many investors think that today's official data will also follow the loosening trend. If the data is soft enough, the rally in the US bonds could continue and the US 10-year yields could have a taste of the 4% psychological mark, while a stronger-than-expected figure could help scale back the dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations but could hardly bring the hawks back to the market before next week's FOMC decision.    

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair continued its strong upward movement, reaching the Murray level "2/8" (1.0986) on Friday and bouncing off it. We expected the start of a downward correction (at least) on Thursday, but the outcomes of the ECB and Bank of England meetings influenced our plan.     The ECB and BoE took a rather hawkish stance on Thursday, triggering a new strengthening of the European currency and the pound. However, on Friday, with a weakened macroeconomic background and a complete absence of fundamentals, the pair showed volatility no less than on Wednesday and Thursday, but in the opposite direction. The correction we witnessed is not just regular; it can and should be the beginning of a prolonged decline. Of course, the pair can move in the opposite direction for quite some time, completely contradicting fundamentals, macroeconomics, and common sense. We have repeatedly listed all the reasons why the euro has no grounds to continue rising. Have we witnessed a two-month appreciation of the euro? This should be the end of it. This is if we talk about justified movement. If we talk about inertia, the euro can rise to $1.50 or even higher. Why is that impossible? The market can continue buying European currency for any reason, even if there is none because the market is made up of people. And people are not obliged to follow technicals, macroeconomics, or fundamentals. So, what we are warning about is that, in a more logical scenario, there is still a decline in the pair. This remains true despite Powell being less hawkish than desired and despite Lagarde's more hawkish stance than desired. Nothing changes because of that. Also, note that a "double top" pattern has formed on the euro at the moment, which is visible on almost any chart. Such a pattern is a sign of a trend reversal. Adding to this, there have been four entries into the overbought territory for the CCI indicator. What does this result in? It means that the euro has no other choice but to continue falling. Lane's speech is the most interesting event of the week in the EU. What can we expect next week? It can be said right away that all the most interesting things in December have already passed. The market is preparing for the Christmas and New Year holidays, so volatility may decrease again, although sharp emotional spikes and volatility are still possible in a "thin" market. In the EU, there will be a few important events next week. On Monday, the IFO Institute indices in Germany will be noteworthy. Business expectations, the current situation index, and the business climate index will be published. We do not consider these indices important, and the market's reaction to them may be extremely limited. On Tuesday, the EU will release the second, final assessment of inflation for November. We all understand that the second assessment rarely differs from the first, so traders are likely to have nothing to react to. On Wednesday, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane will speak, but what can he tell the market after Christine Lagarde spoke first last week, and on Friday, both Holzmann and de Guindos spoke? Nothing is interesting in the events calendar in the EU and Germany on Thursday and Friday. It turns out that there will be no really important macroeconomic or fundamental events this week. Of course, there will be American events and reports, but even there, things are quite scarce. Therefore, we expect a correction against the rise on Wednesday and Thursday, as well as low volatility. The average volatility of the Euro/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days as of December 17 is 97 points and is characterized as "high." Thus, we expect movement between levels 1.0797 and 1.0991 on Friday. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator back upward will indicate a possible resumption of the upward movement. Nearest support levels: S1 - 1.0864 S2 - 1.0742 S3 - 1.0620 Nearest resistance levels: R1 - 1.0986 R2 - 1.1108 R3 - 1.1230 Trading recommendations: The EUR/USD pair has settled above the moving average line, but we do not believe that the rise can continue. The price perfectly reached the targets of 1.0974 and 1.0986, after which it began to fall. Buying the pair can be done on a bounce from the moving average, but we believe that a further decline is more likely. The new overbought condition of the CCI indicator indicates a much more probable decline. Short positions can be opened with a re-fixing below the moving average with a target of 1.0742. Explanations for the illustrations: Linear regression channels - help determine the current trend. If both are pointing in the same direction, the trend is strong. The moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) - determines the short-term trend and direction in which trading should currently be conducted. Murray levels - target levels for movements and corrections. Volatility levels (red lines) - the likely price channel in which the pair will spend the next day, based on current volatility indicators. CCI indicator - its entry into the overbought area (below -250) or the oversold area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.  

Notes from a slow year-end morning By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank  The last PCE print for the US was perfect. Core PCE, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) favourite gauge of inflation, printed 0.1% advance on a monthly basis – it was softer than expected, core PCE fell to 3.2% on a yearly basis – it was also softer than expected, and core PCE fell to 1.9% on a 6-month basis, and that's below the Fed's 2% inflation target.   Normally, you wouldn't necessarily cheer a slowdown in 6-month inflation but because investors are increasingly impatient to see the Fed cut its interest rates, all metrics are good to justify the end of the Fed's policy tightening campaign. So here we are, cheering the fact that the 6-month core PCE fell below the Fed's 2% target in November. The US 2-year yield is preparing to test the 4.30% to the downside, the 10-year yield makes itself comfy below the 4% mark – and even the 3.90% this morning, and the stocks joyfully extend their rally. The S&P500 closed last week a few points below a ytd high, Nasdaq100 and Dow Jones consolidated near ATH levels and the US dollar looks miserable. The dollar index is at the lowest level since summer and about to step into the February to August bearish trend.   There is not much data left to go before this year ends. We have a light economic calendar for the week, and the trading volumes will be thin due to the end-end holiday.   Morning notes from a slow morning  Major central banks reined in on inflation in 2023 – the inflation numbers are surprisingly, and significantly lower than the expectations. Remember, we though – at the start of the year - that the end of China's zero-Covid measures was the biggest risk to inflation. Well, we simply have been served the exact opposite: China's inability to rebound, and inability to generate inflation simply helped getting the rest of us out of inflation. China did not contribute to inflation but to disinflation instead.  The Fed sounds significantly more dovish than its European peers – even though inflation in Europe and Britain have come significantly down, and their sputtering economies would justify softer monetary policies, whereas the US economy remains uncomfortably strong. Released last Friday, the US durables goods orders jumped 5.4% in November! The diverging speed between the US and the European economies makes the policy divergence between the dovish Fed and the hawkish European central banks look suspicious. Yes, the EURUSD will certainly end this year above that 1.10 mark, nonetheless, the upside potential will likely remain limited.   Elsewhere, everyone I talk to is short USDJPY, or short EURJPY, or GBPJPY. But the bullish sentiment in the yen makes the yen stronger and a stronger yen will help inflation ease in Japan, and slow inflation will allow the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to remain relaxed about normalizing policy. And indeed, released this morning, the BoJ core inflation fell more than expected to 2.7%. Bingo! Therefore, it looks like the USDJPY's downside potential may be coming to a point of exhaustion near the 140 – in the absence of fresh news.   In energy, oil is having such a hard time this year. The barrel of American crude couldn't break the $74pb resistance and there is now a death cross formation on a daily chart. Yet the oil bulls have all the reasons on earth to push this rally further: the tensions in Suez Canal are mounting, the war in the Middle East gets uglier, Iran looks increasingly involved in the conflict, OPEC restricts production, and central banks are preparing to cut rates. But interestingly, none has been enough to strengthen the back of the bulls. Failure to clear the $74/75 resistance will eventually weaken the trend and send the price of a barrel below $70pb. If that's the case, there will be even more reason to be confident about a series of rate cuts next year.  

Cryptocurrencies kick off the new year with a strong performance, with Bitcoin surging by over 5% today, surpassing the $45,000 mark and resulting in a notable week-to-date and year-to-date gain for Bitcoin, reaching almost 9%. While the exact catalyst for this upward movement remains unclear, the overarching narrative in the cryptocurrency market centers around spot Bitcoin ETFs with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) currently evaluating multiple applications and with unconfirmed reports suggesting that a decision to approve these applications and facilitate the listing of spot Bitcoin ETFs could be imminent, possibly within the week. A Reuters report from December 29, 2023, hinted at the possibility that the US regulator might clear some spot Bitcoin ETFs either today or tomorrow, paving the way for the ETF launch on January 10, 2024. The authenticity of this report and the likelihood of the green light being imminent remain uncertain, but the cryptocurrency markets have been responsive to any positive news, even those with vague details. Bitcoin is currently trading at its highest level since April 2022, marking a daily high just below the $46,000 threshold and from a technical standpoint, the situation appears bullish, as BITCOIN has broken above the upper limit of the $41,000-44,300 trading range and continues to gain momentum. As optimism grows in the crypto space, It seems almost certain that a Bitcoin ETF will be approved and the main doubts are now about timing rather than anything else.     

COT reports on the British pound show that the sentiment of commercial traders has been changing quite frequently in recent months. The red and green lines, representing the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, often intersect and, in most cases, are not far from the zero mark. According to the latest report on the British pound, the non-commercial group closed 10,000 buy contracts and 4,200 short ones. As a result, the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by 5,800 contracts in a week. Since bulls currently don't have the advantage, we believe that the pound will not be able to sustain the upward movement for long . The fundamental backdrop still does not provide a basis for long-term purchases on the pound.   The non-commercial group currently has a total of 58,800 buy contracts and 44,700 sell contracts. Since the COT reports cannot make an accurate forecast of the market's behavior right now, and the fundamentals are practically the same for both currencies, we can only assess the technical picture and economic reports. The technical analysis suggests that we can expect a strong decline, and the economic reports have also been significantly stronger in the United States for quite some time now.   On the 1H chart, GBP/USD is making every effort to correct lower, but the uptrend remains intact. We believe that the British pound doesn't have any good reason to strengthen in the long-term. Therefore, at the very least, we expect the pair to return to the level of 1.2513. However, there are currently no sell signals, so the uptrend is still intact. On Tuesday, there are few reasons for the pair to show volatile movements. We may see a flat phase, a downtrend, or an uptrend (intraday), so we need to purely rely on technical analysis. We expect the pound to consolidate below the trendline, and in that case, we can consider selling while aiming for the Senkou Span B line. A n upward movement is theoretically possible today, but we see no reason for it, so you shouldn't consider buying at the moment. As of January 2, we highlight the following important levels: 1.2215, 1.2269, 1.2349, 1.2429-1.2445, 1.2513, 1.2605-1.2620, 1.2726, 1.2786, 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987. The Senkou Span B line (1.2646) and the Kijun-sen (1.2753) lines can also be sources of signals. Don't forget to set a breakeven Stop Loss to breakeven if the price has moved in the intended direction by 20 pips. The Ichimoku indicator lines may move during the day, so this should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Today, the UK and the US will release their second estimates of business activity indices in the manufacturing sector for December. These are not significant reports so it is unlikely for traders to react to them. Description of the chart: Support and resistance levels are thick red lines near which the trend may end. They do not provide trading signals; The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, plotted to the 1H timeframe from the 4H one. They provide trading signals; Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price bounced earlier. They provide trading signals; Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns; Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the net position size for each category of traders; Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the net position size for the Non-commercial group.  

EUR/USD In the final trading day of 2023, the euro fell by 25 pips on below-average volume, finding support at 1.1033. Since there was no significant profit-taking, we expect the uptrend to remain intact. A break above the level of 1.1076 opens up a substantial target like 1.1185, which is the November 2021 low and the March 2022 high. We could see bullish potential at 1.1280. The Marlin oscillator has also corrected lower, visually preparing for a reversal into a new upward wave.   All the price action and oscillator movements occur within an uptrend. It's worth noting that this progress is taking place within a medium-term green-colored ascending price channel. Even if there is a break below the 1.1033 support level, we will not hastily revise the main scenario.   On the 4-hour chart, the price is supported by the balance indicator line. The Marlin oscillator is in a bearish territory but may require a trigger to return to the bullish territory. Today's reports on the final estimates of the eurozone and U.S. industrial PMIs for December may serve as a catalyst. The forecasts remain unchanged (44.2 and 48.2, respectively), but tomorrow's Manufacturing ISM for December is projected to stand at 47.1, up from 46.7 in November. We can assume that today's final estimate of the Manufacturing PMI might surprise everyone and turn out to be better than expected. Such, albeit minor, optimism could sustain risk appetite and push stock markets and counter-dollar currencies into the green zone.

CEE: The market is losing patience with PLN Yesterday's PMIs in the CEE region confirmed continued weakness in industry in December, especially in the Czech Republic where the leading indicator fell to its lowest reading since September last year, sinking hopes of a recovery at the end of the year. The calendar is empty in the region today, but it should get more interesting in the days ahead. On Thursday, the Czech Republic will release the state budget result for last year. The Ministry of Finance is already indicating that the resulting deficit could be lower than projected (CZK295bn), which would be good news for Czech government bonds (CZGBs). At the same time, MinFin is expected to publish a funding plan for this year by the end of this week, the last one in the CEE region, which we believe should also point to a positive picture for CZGBs this year. Then, on Friday, the final 3Q GDP report in the Czech Republic will be published, while in Poland, December inflation will be released. We expect a small increase from 6.6% to 6.7% year-on-year, slightly above market expectations. However, the wide range of estimates suggests an interesting print here. In the FX market, most of the region started the year with gains except the Polish zloty. The general picture for the CEE region seems mixed with a stronger US dollar on the one hand and higher market rates across the board on the other. Although PLN should benefit the most from higher rates across the region in our view, it is the weakest since November last year. Heavy long positioning and just a lazy move down in EUR/PLN in recent weeks seems to have triggered some selling in PLN. Yesterday's paying flow in the rates market seems to have stopped the sell-off around 4.360 EUR/PLN, however, it is hard to say if we are at the end for now. We still expect a stronger PLN given the macro and monetary policy outlook, however for now we will have to experience a moment of weakness. Elsewhere in the region, higher market rates seem to have supported FX and CZK and HUF are enjoying new gains. In Hungary in particular, we could see more in this direction over the coming days, in our view.

Strongest hiring plans in the Netherlands While the economic environment is deteriorating, most employers still have modest hiring intentions as we begin 2024. In fact, most employers in the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany are more optimistic about their hiring plans at the start of this year than they were at the end of 2023. In France, Switzerland and Sweden, hiring plans are weaker for the first quarter of 2024 compared to the end of 2023.    Employers in the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany are more optimistic about their hiring plans in 2024 Percentage of employers planning to hire minus the percentage of employers expecting a reduction in staffing levels     Less demand for temporary workers 2024 will be another challenging year for the temporary employment sector. Economic growth forecasts for most European economies remain weak for 2024, ranging from a mild contraction in Sweden and Germany to a lingering 0.7% GDP growth in Belgium and the Netherlands. As a result, unemployment could rise slightly.  The sluggish economic outlook also has consequences for the employment services industry. Companies are reluctant to invest now that the market remains highly uncertain. This softens the demand for temporary agency workers. That's particularly true for the manufacturing sector, an important industry for temp workers, where new orders continue to decline, as does capacity utilisation. But employment prospects for temp workers are also deteriorating in the services sector. Taken together, market volumes in the employment services sector are expected to decline in most European economies next year.   Staffing sector forecast: volumes are likely to decline in most European economies Volume output (value added) employment services industry, year-on-year, indices (2019=100)     Belgium - Shorter duration of temporary work GDP growth in Belgium is expected to be relatively high at 0.7% in 2024, compared to other European economies. This is mainly due to automatic wage indexation, which means that income increases with the inflation rate (excluding alcohol, tobacco and fuels). Higher purchasing power stimulates consumer spending and, thus, economic growth. Nevertheless, higher hourly labour costs will negatively impact labour demand, including the demand for temporary agency workers. We, therefore, expect a decline in market volumes in the temporary employment sector in 2024. Despite a slow economic growth, Belgium's labour market remains very solid. This is largely due to the country's tight labour market. One of the consequences of talent scarcity is that the duration of temporary work is becoming shorter because temp workers are more often hired on a permanent basis.    France - Hiring plans on hold Economic growth is expected to slow further, from 0.9% in 2023 to 0.6% in 2024. The outlook for both the French services and manufacturing sectors remains bleak. Both sectors are facing lower demand, high inflation and greater uncertainty. In addition, the French labour market is showing the first signs of cooling down, resulting in a rise in unemployment in 2024. The deterioration of the employment climate is mainly due to the services sector. Because almost half of the temps actually work in the service sector, this will also have a negative impact on the demand for temporary agency workers and the number of hours worked. We, therefore, expect a further contraction in employment activities in 2024.    Germany - Hiring freeze over recession fears Weaker global demand, high interest rates, energy uncertainty and persistently high inflation are hitting the German economy this year. This will have consequences for the demand for temporary agency workers. Adverse macroeconomic developments are putting pressure on the German automotive industry, an important sector for employment agencies. In addition, production is also declining substantially in other subsectors of the manufacturing industry. Another factor negatively affecting the temporary employment sector is the shortage of temp workers due to demographic developments. Overall, we expect a further decline in the volume of employment activities in 2024.    The Netherlands - Self-employment is an attractive alternative As a result of a weakening economy, the number of temporary employment hours in the Netherlands is expected to decrease further in 2024. We anticipate a decrease in the number of temporary agency hours by approximately 5% by 2024, mainly due to continued relatively low economic growth. In manufacturing, temp workers are the first to be laid off due to a rapid decline in production and the number of orders.  A major challenge for the staffing industry in the Netherlands is the impact of stricter regulations, which make agency workers more expensive and less flexible. As a result, other forms of employment contracts become more attractive for hiring companies, such as self-employed professionals.    More self-employed people, less flexible employment in the Netherlands in 2023 Share of labour position in the labour force in the Netherlands, third quarter    Sweden - The job market is cooling down Sweden is among the European economies expected to enter a recession in 2023, mainly due to high inflation and higher interest rates. We expect economic activity to stagnate this year. There are already signs that the job market is cooling down. As a result, consumer and business confidence remains low. The economic situation is likely to weaken demand for temp workers, especially in the construction and manufacturing sectors. Overall, we expect market volumes for the temporary employment sector to decline again in 2024.    Switzerland - Another year of negative volume growth in employment activities Like many other European countries, the Swiss economy became more challenging in 2023 due to high inflation, higher interest rates and weakening global demand. GDP growth is expected to slow from 2.2% in 2022 to around 0.6% in 2023 and 2024. The Swiss manufacturing industry, with a relatively large weight of the cyclical chemical and pharmaceutical sectors, is shrinking. The staffing market is also negatively affected by staff shortages, making it difficult to find suitable candidates. In short, we expect another year of negative volume growth in employment activities in Switzerland in 2024.    Manufacturing and construction are the most important sectors for the Swiss staffing industry Percentage of industries that used temporary agency work in Switzerland in 2022   The United Kingdom - Weak outlook for the employment activities sector Economic activity in the UK is expected to grow only modestly in 2024, similar to most other European economies. The sluggish economy will lead to a decrease in the number of vacancies and an increase in the unemployment rate. However, given the ongoing staff shortages, this increase is expected to be limited. Nevertheless, we expect the demand for temporary agency workers to weaken further in 2024. 

Understanding the terms like "uptrend," "bull market," and their significance is paramount for seasoned traders, but they might pose challenges for newcomers in the stock market. This article delves into the meanings and importance of these concepts when making investment decisions. Unveiling the Concept of Uptrend As discussed in our previous articles, a trend signifies the direction in which the price of a specific currency pair is moving. The ability to determine a trend is crucial in Forex trading. Adhering to the widely accepted principle, "the trend is your friend," aligning investments with the trend rather than against it is fundamental. Today, we'll focus on the rising trend. Bull Market – Definition and Characteristics: First and foremost, let's clarify that terms like "bull market," "uptrend," "rising trend," or "uptrend" all refer to the same market situation. If an upward trend persists over an extended period, it's referred to as a bull market. The graphical representation of an uptrend looks like this: Clearly, in an uptrend, each successive trough is higher than the previous one, along with each successive peak. This indicates that the price is consistently rising. It's crucial to remember that occasional price drops, known as corrections, may occur, but the overall upward trend is maintained. Following the basic trading principle for long-term investing, always act in line with the trend; during an uptrend, transactions should predominantly be buying. However, when the last trough is breached or no new peak is evident, it could signal the end of the uptrend. In such situations, refraining from investments and waiting for a clearer direction is advisable. Support and Resistance Lines: While discussing the uptrend, it's essential to mention support and resistance lines, critical moments in the cycle that can indicate significant changes in the trend. The resistance line marks the point where supply is stronger than demand, signifying the beginning of a price decline. Typically, the resistance line is determined by the previous peak (based on historical data). Overcoming levels of successive resistance peaks is necessary to sustain an uptrend. Conversely, if breaking the resistance line occurs after bouncing off the support line, a change in the current trend can be anticipated. The support line is the level where demand outweighs the force of supply. This halts the price decline, resulting in a resurgence of values. Usually, the depth of the previous price drop defines the support line. In summary, understanding uptrends, such as bull markets, involves recognizing the graphical representations, following the basic trading principle, and considering critical moments like support and resistance lines. This knowledge equips traders to navigate the complexities of rising markets more adeptly.    

The pivotal question we aim to answer is who should consider such instruments and who might be better off exploring alternatives. Given the diverse array of tools available for exposure to stock indices, it's worth exploring various options. Let's begin by addressing what a stock index truly is. An index, in itself, isn't a financial instrument, security, or derivative. It's essentially synthetic information about the market or specific segments and slices within it. In simpler terms, a stock index is a collection of components (in our case, listed companies) used to calculate its value. Each index has its portfolio, where each company is responsible for a specific percentage weight. Most indices use weights based on market capitalization – the higher the market value of a component, the greater its percentage value in the index portfolio. Additionally, the liquidity of a given company over a specific period (usually 6 months to a year) is often considered when determining portfolio weights. In essence, an index is like a portfolio comprised of a specific number of listed companies (in our case, not limited to just companies) in specific percentage proportions. Its value and price movements depend on the behavior of the components it holds. Explore more: Mastering Requoting in CFD Trading: Navigating Uncommon Market Scenarios In this segment, we'll focus on prominent stock indices from major exchanges. In the USA, the three key indices are the S&P500, Nasdaq-100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30). In Germany, we have the DAX (DE30), once a favorite among traders; in the UK, it's the FTSE-100; in Japan, the Nikkei-225; and in Poland, the WIG20. Of course, this is just a small glimpse of the market, as each stock exchange has dozens, if not hundreds, of sector-specific, thematic, and smaller company-focused indices. However, leading indices are considered benchmarks for the mood and condition of a given exchange, although not always accurately. Investing in Stock Indices: How to Do It? Since a stock index isn't a financial instrument on its own, is it possible to "buy" it? There are numerous ways to gain exposure to index price movements, with the most popular being the purchase of an Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) replicating a specific stock index. These ETFs construct their portfolios based on the composition of the underlying index, essentially buying shares of selected companies in the appropriate proportions. By investing in such a fund, we gain exposure to the stocks within the index using a single instrument. ETFs boast several advantages, including relatively low management costs, simplicity, convenience, and often high liquidity. However, standard ETFs are typically medium-term instruments, less suitable for speculation due to the lack of leverage and the ability to only take long positions. Of course, there are also synthetic ETFs in the market with double or even triple leverage, and some with inverse positions (short). On the XTB xStation platform, you'll find ETFs on all major stock indices, including their synthetic, leveraged, and inverse versions. Importantly, these can be purchased without any commission, and if you have a currency account, you won't incur any fees for currency conversion – the only cost is the annual management fee charged by the fund provider. If you prefer not to invest in an entire index through an ETF, you can independently create a portfolio of specific companies in predetermined proportions. On the xStation platform, you won't incur any commission fees for such transactions (up to a monthly turnover of 100,000 EUR). However, this approach is more time-consuming, although it exempts you from management costs charged by ETF providers. For more advanced investors, derivative instruments are available, including futures contracts, structured certificates on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, and, of course, Contracts for Difference (CFD), where stock indices serve as the underlying asset. Derivatives offer financial leverage and the ability to take both long and short positions, but they come with higher risk. CFD Market on Indices: Specification and Trading Conditions CFD contracts on stock indices are now offered by almost every broker, covering primarily popular American indices and leading indices from major global stock exchanges. According to the regulations of the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), CFD contracts on indices provide a maximum leverage of 20:1, meaning a 5% margin requirement. Given the volatility of indices themselves, this is sufficient leverage even for intraday speculation. Depending on the broker, CFDs on some indices may have lower leverage – for instance, with XTB, this is the case for the Italian FTSE ITA40 and Reuters Russia 50 (RUS50), where the leverage is 10:1. Read more: Mastering Forex Markets. A Comprehensive Guide to Navigating Sideways Trends and Consolidation Patterns When holding positions overnight, be prepared for negative swap points, although XTB exempts CFDs on indices (excluding cash versions) from swaps, eliminating additional costs for maintaining positions over time. As for the lot value for CFD contracts on indices, it should ideally be equivalent to the multiplier for futures contracts (which are the underlying instruments for CFDs). However, some brokers may apply a multiple of the multiplier. For the most popular CFD indices, the lot values are: S&P500: multiplier 50 (e-mini) Nasdaq-100: multiplier 20 (e-mini) DAX: multiplier 25 (Mini-DAX) WIG20: multiplier 20 (similar to FW20) In the case of CFDs, you can open a position with a minimal volume of 1 micro lot (1/100 of a lot), allowing you to engage with the market without committing significant capital. Who Should Consider CFD Contracts on Indices? When it comes to CFD contracts on indices, as mentioned earlier, they are certainly not suitable for everyone. Leading stock indices themselves exhibit considerable volatility, and with CFDs, this volatility is further amplified by a maximum leverage of twenty times, introducing significantly higher risk. Therefore, these instruments primarily serve a speculative purpose, typically in the short term. Nevertheless, for those comfortable with the risk and desiring to capitalize on prevailing trends, CFD contracts can serve as a more accessible and considerably lower-capital alternative to index futures. It's crucial, however, to employ risk management measures, such as trailing stop-loss orders, especially given the inherent risks associated with these instruments. CFDs can also present a more accessible and significantly lower-capital alternative to index futures.

Pivot points, an often overlooked technical analysis tool, can be a game-changer in daily Forex trading. Let's delve into what pivot points are, how to calculate them, and practical strategies for incorporating them into your trading routine. Understanding Pivot Points Pivot points are a mathematical formula used to identify support and resistance levels. This objective tool automatically determines potential areas where a currency's price might rise, fall, or stall. Derived from pure mathematical calculations, pivot points rely on historical high, low, and closing prices. Traders primarily apply this indicator in day trading, using weekly or monthly quotes as the basis for calculations. For intraday trading, daily pivot points are commonly utilized. The Pivot Points Formula The formula for pivot points involves essential data points: Closing price (C) Highest price within a period (H) Lowest price within a period (L) The pivotal point (P) is calculated as the arithmetic mean of these values: P = (C + H + L)/3. Further calculations yield resistance and support levels: First Resistance (R1): R1 = 2*P – L Second Resistance (R2): R2 = P + (H – L) Third Resistance (R3): R3 = P + (H – L)*2 Similarly, support levels (S) are determined: First Support (S1): S1 = 2*P – H Second Support (S2): S2 = P – (R1 – S1) Third Support (S3): S3 = P – (H – L)*2 Applying Pivot Points in Practice Various approaches exist for leveraging pivot points in making investment decisions. Traders may customize their use based on individual trading methods. Here are general guidelines to aid in concrete actions: Buying and Selling Zones: Typically, above the pivot points line, traders consider a selling zone, engaging in short positions. Conversely, below this line lies the buying zone, where long positions are common. Viewing pivot points as reversal points, traders anticipate price consolidation. Opening a position occurs when the price drops to the S1 level, with a selling signal when reaching the R1 level. Prices often oscillate between R1 and S1, the first resistance and support levels. Breakout Strategy: Alternatively, traders might opt to open a position after breaking a designated level, anticipating a continuation of the established trend. In this scenario, a sell position is initiated when the price falls below S1, while a buy position is triggered when the price surpasses R1, with the aim of reaching a value close to R2. Pivot points serve as one of the many tools for making investment decisions. Some traders find them invaluable, using them frequently, while others incorporate them as a supportive element alongside decisions driven by other analyses. Every trader should experiment and devise a personalized trading strategy. However, for optimal and reliable results, it is advisable to use this method concurrently with other approaches. Incorporating pivot points into your trading arsenal can provide a valuable edge, helping you navigate the complex landscape of Forex markets more effectively. Remember, while pivot points offer insights, combining them with a diversified strategy enhances your overall trading acumen.      

The cryptocurrency market is well-known for its volatility, meaning that prices can experience substantial fluctuations in a short period. Given the significant unpredictability and inherent risks associated with the cryptocurrency market, insider advice can provide invaluable assistance to investors. Additionally, individuals who possess insider information may have access to early information regarding upcoming developments, partnerships, or regulatory changes that could impact the market. Individuals who have inside information often enjoy the benefit of having access to secret knowledge, industry expertise, and analytical tools. These resources are valuable in understanding market trends, essential project details, and potential investment opportunities. Utilizing their evaluations and recommendations can help investors navigate the complex and volatile world of cryptocurrency more effectively. This article explores the techniques insiders use to evaluate the market and the strategies they use to predict the next big cryptocurrency coin.  How Insiders Evaluate The Next Big Cryptocurrency Experts who have inside information use the following factors to identify which cryptocurrencies are likely to be profitable and have long-term growth. This method of analyzing the basics provides a detailed framework for assessing the true value and future potential of a cryptocurrency project. It's also helpful for determining the investment worth of the next big hitting cryptocurrency coin.   Technological Innovation  Analysts and investors, who have access to privileged information, will evaluate a cryptocurrency project based on its innovation and technical capabilities. They will examine its scalability, security features, and effectiveness in solving real-world issues. A crypto coin that uses advanced technology and groundbreaking solutions is expected to gain traction that might explode resulting in sustained success in the long run. Let’s say you are assessing a new cryptocurrency project for the Sponge V2 meme coin, for example. For instance, you would examine whether Sponge V2 brings in innovative technology, such as a distinct consensus mechanism or enhanced privacy features, that effectively resolves an issue that other cryptocurrencies have not addressed.  In the case of the Sponge V2 meme coin, it provides faster transaction speeds since it operates on the Polygon Blockchain network, which could attract individuals looking for faster payment alternatives. Team Expertise and Execution The skills and accomplishments of the development team can have a substantial impact on the success of a project. Insiders who are well-versed in the project's intricacies typically assess the team members' expertise, background, and previous achievements. A team that is both experienced and competent excels in overcoming challenges, materializing the project's vision, and delivering on its commitments.   Use Case and Utility Case and utility refers to evaluating the practicality and market value of the cryptocurrency project by studying its application in real-world scenarios. Experts assess whether the project addresses a genuine issue or fulfills a specific purpose and determine if it offers unique attributes or benefits compared to existing alternatives. A cryptocurrency that possesses a unique purpose and adds tangible value is expected to attract users and attain wider acceptance. Using the Sponge V2 as a prime example, the case and utility for this digital currency intends to improve the way the community interacts and participates. It distinguishes itself from other cryptocurrencies by prioritizing meme culture and community-led initiatives.   Market Demand and Performance Insiders will analyze the level of demand in the market and assess the project's performance metrics in order to determine its likelihood of success. These factors include: Market capitalization which represents the collective worth of all coins that are currently in circulation.  The trading volume which is the level of activity in trading.  Real-world adoption that refers to the practical usage of cryptocurrencies for transactions or other objectives. Pro tip: A cryptocurrency with high demand and positive performance indicators typically stands a better chance of achieving success in the market.   Trends and Predictions A market analysis based on the trends and predictions is conducted in the field to gain insight into the future direction of cryptocurrency projects. The assessment involves determining whether the project aligns with emerging trends in the cryptocurrency industry and its potential for sustained expansion. Right now, crypto experts are indicating that Sponge V2 meme coin holds promise for substantial success. The reason behind this is the rising enthusiasm for decentralized finance applications, and if Sponge V2 establishes itself as a prominent participant in this field, it could gain advantages from this expanding trend.  Additionally, analysts also forecast that the value of Sponge V2 meme coin will grow owing to its solid foundational principles and the dynamics of the market. All of these factors collectively contribute to the optimistic perspective regarding this particular cryptocurrency. 6 Effective Insider Strategies  Here are 7 pro tips to help you analyse the market and gain insight into the next big crypto coin: 1. Check the Total Supply and Circulation The value and potential growth of a cryptocurrency depend on its total supply and the amount currently being used. When the total supply is low and there is a reasonable circulation, it can result in scarcity. This scarcity can boost demand and cause the price to rise. If there is a high total supply and a large portion is already circulating, it may indicate less scarcity and affect the cryptocurrency's price movement. 2. Monitor the Price and Volume Monitoring the price and quantity of transactions provides valuable insights into market sentiment and investor involvement. When trading volume significantly increases and prices rise, it can indicate growing enthusiasm and a potential upward market trend. On the other hand, decreased trading volume or stable prices may suggest declining interest or a lack of buying pressure. 3. Pay Attention to Bitcoin Halving The Bitcoin halving event, happening in April 2024, reduces the rate at which new Bitcoins are created by half. Historically, Bitcoin halving has been associated with bull markets and significant price increases due to decreased supply and increased scarcity. By carefully reviewing the timing and impact of Bitcoin halvings, you can acquire valuable information about potential market trends and the beginning of a new phase of price escalation. 1. Regularly Review Market Analysis and Expert Insights In order to accurately predict the next prominent cryptocurrency, it is vital to conduct thorough research and analyze market trends. Gathering knowledge from experienced individuals and using strategies based on data is vital. Understanding the dynamics of the market, upcoming events, and technological advancements can assist investors in identifying promising opportunities and assessing the possible risks associated with various cryptocurrency ventures. 2. Follow Community and Social Media Closely Monitoring discussions on social media sites and online communities can provide valuable insights into future trends and potential investment opportunities. Engaging in conversations with the crypto community helps investors stay informed about emerging digital currencies, project developments, and market sentiment, allowing them to identify promising projects before they gain popularity among the general public. 3. Avoid Frequent Token Unlocks Projects that regularly release tokens, thereby making a significant number of tokens accessible for buying on the market, can diminish the cryptocurrency's worth and hinder its price. It is crucial for investors to be cautious when engaging with projects that have an excessive number of token unlocks, as this may significantly impact the cryptocurrency's long-term potential for growth. Conclusion Being able to predict the next major cryptocurrency coins requires a combination of informed analysis and a keen understanding of the market. Those who are knowledgeable in this area use various strategies to identify promising opportunities. However, it is important to understand the risks associated with investing in digital currencies and conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.