market signals

BTC/USD BTC/USD has been trading upside as I expected and I found the breakout of the well defined sideways range, which is good sign for the higher prices.   Due to the breakout of the well defined range and the upside trend on the mid and long term cycles, I see potetnial for the higher process after the downside correction.   Upside objectives are set at the price of $29.145 and $29.870 Stochastic oscillator is showing oversold condition and fresh bull cross, which is another sign for the upside movement.   Key support cluster is set at the price of $25.900    

Trend analysis. The market may move upward from the level of 1.0724 (closing of Friday's daily candle) with the target of 1.0758, the 14.6% pullback level (red dotted line). When testing this level, the price may move downward with the target of 1.0737, the 61.8% pullback level (yellow dotted line).       Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis - up; Fibonacci levels - up; Volumes - up; Candlestick analysis - up; Trend analysis - down; Bollinger bands - down; Weekly chart - up.     Today, the price may move upward from the level of 1.0724 (closing of Friday's daily candle) with the target of 1.0758, the 14.6% pullback level (red dotted line). When testing this level, the price may move downward with the target of 1.0737, the 61.8% pullback level (yellow dotted line). Alternatively, the price may move upward from the level of 1.0724 (closing of Friday's daily candle) with the target of 1.0758, the 14.6% pullback level (red dotted line). When testing this level, the price may continue to move upwards with the target of 1.0794, the 23.6% pullback level (red dotted line).  

USD/CAD has been trading downside and I found the breakout of the support cluster at the price of 1.3590, which is good sign for the further downside movement.   Due to the breakout of the support cluster and the increasing in the downside movement, I see potential for the further lower prices towards downside references.   Downside objectives are set at 1.3540 and 1.3490 MACD is showing increasing of the downside momentum, which is good sign for the further lower prices.... Key resistance is set at the price of 1.3650  

The Commodities Feed: All eyes on the Fed The Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates by 25bp today, and markets will be on the lookout for any signals suggesting this could be the central bank's final hike or whether there could be more still to come.   Energy – Fed key for short term price direction Sentiment in the oil market has improved with ICE Brent settling a little more than 1% higher yesterday. The market is more optimistic following China’s Politburo meeting,  where there were promises for more support measures for the domestic economy. However, up until now, there haven't appeared to be any actual policies that have been announced. Overnight, the API also released US inventory numbers which showed that US crude oil inventories increased by 1.32MMbbls, whilst crude stocks at Cushing fell by 2.34MMbbls. On the product side, gasoline inventories fell by 1.04MMbbls, whilst distillate stocks increased by 1.61MMbbls. The report was a bit of a mixed bag, with little in the way of a strong takeaway from the numbers. The more widely followed EIA report will be out later today. The market will be watching closely the outcome of the FOMC meeting later today. Expectations are that the Federal Reserve will hike rates by 25bp, which could very well be the last hike in this cycle. However, any signal from the Fed that they have more to do will likely put some downward pressure on risk assets, including oil. The Saudis will be happy to see Brent trading back above US$80/bbl with their additional voluntary cut of 1MMbbls/d starting to have its desired effect. However, the broader OPEC+ cuts are leading to some distortions within the market (tightness in medium sour crudes) and this is evident in the unusual discount that Brent continues to trade at relative to Dubai. However, the decision that Saudi Arabia will need to make in the coming weeks is whether they will roll this additional cut into September or start to unwind it. The recent price strength might give the Saudis the confidence to start unwinding these cuts, but expectations will have to be managed and they will have to be careful how they go about it – too aggressively and it could put renewed pressure back on the market.

Cryptocurrencies kick off the new year with a strong performance, with Bitcoin surging by over 5% today, surpassing the $45,000 mark and resulting in a notable week-to-date and year-to-date gain for Bitcoin, reaching almost 9%. While the exact catalyst for this upward movement remains unclear, the overarching narrative in the cryptocurrency market centers around spot Bitcoin ETFs with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) currently evaluating multiple applications and with unconfirmed reports suggesting that a decision to approve these applications and facilitate the listing of spot Bitcoin ETFs could be imminent, possibly within the week. A Reuters report from December 29, 2023, hinted at the possibility that the US regulator might clear some spot Bitcoin ETFs either today or tomorrow, paving the way for the ETF launch on January 10, 2024. The authenticity of this report and the likelihood of the green light being imminent remain uncertain, but the cryptocurrency markets have been responsive to any positive news, even those with vague details. Bitcoin is currently trading at its highest level since April 2022, marking a daily high just below the $46,000 threshold and from a technical standpoint, the situation appears bullish, as BITCOIN has broken above the upper limit of the $41,000-44,300 trading range and continues to gain momentum. As optimism grows in the crypto space, It seems almost certain that a Bitcoin ETF will be approved and the main doubts are now about timing rather than anything else.     

COT reports on the British pound show that the sentiment of commercial traders has been changing quite frequently in recent months. The red and green lines, representing the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, often intersect and, in most cases, are not far from the zero mark. According to the latest report on the British pound, the non-commercial group closed 10,000 buy contracts and 4,200 short ones. As a result, the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by 5,800 contracts in a week. Since bulls currently don't have the advantage, we believe that the pound will not be able to sustain the upward movement for long . The fundamental backdrop still does not provide a basis for long-term purchases on the pound.   The non-commercial group currently has a total of 58,800 buy contracts and 44,700 sell contracts. Since the COT reports cannot make an accurate forecast of the market's behavior right now, and the fundamentals are practically the same for both currencies, we can only assess the technical picture and economic reports. The technical analysis suggests that we can expect a strong decline, and the economic reports have also been significantly stronger in the United States for quite some time now.   On the 1H chart, GBP/USD is making every effort to correct lower, but the uptrend remains intact. We believe that the British pound doesn't have any good reason to strengthen in the long-term. Therefore, at the very least, we expect the pair to return to the level of 1.2513. However, there are currently no sell signals, so the uptrend is still intact. On Tuesday, there are few reasons for the pair to show volatile movements. We may see a flat phase, a downtrend, or an uptrend (intraday), so we need to purely rely on technical analysis. We expect the pound to consolidate below the trendline, and in that case, we can consider selling while aiming for the Senkou Span B line. A n upward movement is theoretically possible today, but we see no reason for it, so you shouldn't consider buying at the moment. As of January 2, we highlight the following important levels: 1.2215, 1.2269, 1.2349, 1.2429-1.2445, 1.2513, 1.2605-1.2620, 1.2726, 1.2786, 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987. The Senkou Span B line (1.2646) and the Kijun-sen (1.2753) lines can also be sources of signals. Don't forget to set a breakeven Stop Loss to breakeven if the price has moved in the intended direction by 20 pips. The Ichimoku indicator lines may move during the day, so this should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Today, the UK and the US will release their second estimates of business activity indices in the manufacturing sector for December. These are not significant reports so it is unlikely for traders to react to them. Description of the chart: Support and resistance levels are thick red lines near which the trend may end. They do not provide trading signals; The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, plotted to the 1H timeframe from the 4H one. They provide trading signals; Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price bounced earlier. They provide trading signals; Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns; Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the net position size for each category of traders; Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the net position size for the Non-commercial group.  

GBP/USD On the last working day of December, the GBP/USD pair closed below the level of 1.2745. Therefore, in order to confirm its intention to continue the upward movement (if the pound intends to do so), it needs to reverse and close above 1.2745. This will take time. As a result, even if it closes today's session with a white candle, this won't be a signal for an upward move.   We expect the main movement to take place tomorrow with the release of the ISM Employment and Manufacturing Indexes for December. The forecast for the ISM Manufacturing PMI is 47.1, compared to the previous 46.7. We believe that the data could bring optimism back to the markets and risk appetite. Therefore, we still expect the pound to rise towards the upper band of the price channel near the target level of 1.2930. The Marlin oscillator is already in negative territory but has not yet firmly settled there.     On the 4-hour chart, the price is progressing above both indicator lines. The Marlin oscillator is hovering around the neutral zero line. The price is waiting for an external impetus, possibly from the PMI data. We're waiting.    

The bearish trend, a significant aspect of Forex trading, plays a crucial role in shaping investment decisions. This article aims to elucidate the characteristics of the bear market and its implications for traders. Understanding the Downtrend As discussed in our previous articles, a trend represents the direction in which the price of a currency pair is moving. A fundamental trading principle is to align investments with the trend rather than against it. Therefore, comprehending the downtrend is essential. The identification of a downtrend can be facilitated by analyzing charts that reflect past price values. Analyzing the Downtrend In the chart, the descending peaks and troughs, marked in red, signify a downtrend. Connecting the peaks forms a clear trend line. The strength of the trend is proportional to the distance between the peaks, with a larger gap indicating a more robust trend. While charts may not always vividly display trend lines, recognizing a general downward price trend can serve as a signal to temporarily exit the market. Bear Market Dynamics A bear market, synonymous with a downtrend, occurs when prices consistently decline. In the long term, it signifies a bearish market. Adhering to the popular adage "the trend is your friend," in such scenarios, traders usually contemplate selling. Bear markets often exhibit greater volatility compared to bullish trends, attributed to the accompanying unease amid declining prices. Support and Resistance Lines Support and resistance lines denote potential reversal points in the price movement of a currency pair. In a downtrend, support comprises the successive troughs, each lower than the previous one. These levels represent the depths of prior downward movements, acting as points where the price resisted further decline. Conversely, resistance surfaces when there is a visible level at which the price resisted further upward movement. Referring to the "change of poles" principle, if a resistance level is breached, it transforms into a support level. This pivotal moment often prompts seasoned traders to enter the market. Understanding the dynamics of a bear market is crucial for Forex traders. By recognizing the signs of a downtrend, interpreting charts, and comprehending the roles of support and resistance lines, traders can navigate the complexities of bearish markets more adeptly.

Understanding the terms like "uptrend," "bull market," and their significance is paramount for seasoned traders, but they might pose challenges for newcomers in the stock market. This article delves into the meanings and importance of these concepts when making investment decisions. Unveiling the Concept of Uptrend As discussed in our previous articles, a trend signifies the direction in which the price of a specific currency pair is moving. The ability to determine a trend is crucial in Forex trading. Adhering to the widely accepted principle, "the trend is your friend," aligning investments with the trend rather than against it is fundamental. Today, we'll focus on the rising trend. Bull Market – Definition and Characteristics: First and foremost, let's clarify that terms like "bull market," "uptrend," "rising trend," or "uptrend" all refer to the same market situation. If an upward trend persists over an extended period, it's referred to as a bull market. The graphical representation of an uptrend looks like this: Clearly, in an uptrend, each successive trough is higher than the previous one, along with each successive peak. This indicates that the price is consistently rising. It's crucial to remember that occasional price drops, known as corrections, may occur, but the overall upward trend is maintained. Following the basic trading principle for long-term investing, always act in line with the trend; during an uptrend, transactions should predominantly be buying. However, when the last trough is breached or no new peak is evident, it could signal the end of the uptrend. In such situations, refraining from investments and waiting for a clearer direction is advisable. Support and Resistance Lines: While discussing the uptrend, it's essential to mention support and resistance lines, critical moments in the cycle that can indicate significant changes in the trend. The resistance line marks the point where supply is stronger than demand, signifying the beginning of a price decline. Typically, the resistance line is determined by the previous peak (based on historical data). Overcoming levels of successive resistance peaks is necessary to sustain an uptrend. Conversely, if breaking the resistance line occurs after bouncing off the support line, a change in the current trend can be anticipated. The support line is the level where demand outweighs the force of supply. This halts the price decline, resulting in a resurgence of values. Usually, the depth of the previous price drop defines the support line. In summary, understanding uptrends, such as bull markets, involves recognizing the graphical representations, following the basic trading principle, and considering critical moments like support and resistance lines. This knowledge equips traders to navigate the complexities of rising markets more adeptly.