market momentum

BTC/USD BTC/USD has been trading upside as I expected and I found the breakout of the well defined sideways range, which is good sign for the higher prices.   Due to the breakout of the well defined range and the upside trend on the mid and long term cycles, I see potetnial for the higher process after the downside correction.   Upside objectives are set at the price of $29.145 and $29.870 Stochastic oscillator is showing oversold condition and fresh bull cross, which is another sign for the upside movement.   Key support cluster is set at the price of $25.900    

GBP/USD may start moving upward this week, starting from the level of 1.2344 (closing of the last weekly candle) to 1.2499, which is a historical resistance level (blue dashed line). Upon reaching this price, the pair will climb further to 1.2678, which is an upper fractal (red dashed line).   Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis - upward Fibonacci levels - upward Volumes - upward Candlestick analysis - upward Trend analysis - downward Bollinger bands - upward Monthly chart - upward       All these point to an upward movement in GBP/USD. Conclusion: Most likely, the pair will have a bullish trend, with no first lower shadow on the weekly white candle (Monday - upward) and a second upper shadow (Friday - downward).   So during the week, pound will rise from 1.2344 (closing of the last weekly candle) to the historical resistance level at 1.2499 (blue dashed line), and then head to the upper fractal at 1.2678 (red dashed line).   Alternatively, the quote could go up from 1.2344 (closing of last week's candle) to the historical resistance level at 1.2499 (blue dashed line), and then turn around and fall down to the 38.2% retracement level at 1.2342 (red dashed line).  

In addition, the recent increase in the debt ceiling has helped to boost sentiment by removing some of the uncertainty that was present in the moment. By raising the debt ceiling, the government ensured continued funding of essential programmes and services, reducing uncertainty and boosting investor confidence in the US economy and its ability to service its obligations.   The market momentum was further supported by a solid first quarter 2023 reporting season. Many companies across sectors reported solid financial results that exceeded analysts' expectations. Overall to date, 99% of S&P 500 companies have reported actual results for the first quarter of 2023. Of these companies, 78% reported actual EPS above estimates, exceeding the 5-year average (77%) and the 10-year average (73%). Collectively, companies report revenues that are 6.5% above estimates, below the 5-year average (8.4%) but above the 10-year average (6.4%). At the sector level, seven sectors saw upward EPS estimates for 2023, led by communications services (+3.1%), consumer services (+2.5%) and information technology (+2.0%).   S&P 500 companies thus performed better than analysts' expectations from Q4 2021, both in the number of companies reporting positive EPS surprises and in the magnitude of these surprises, exceeding the 10-year average.  The strong earnings performance instilled confidence in investors and demonstrated underlying business strength and profitability, which contributed to the upward trajectory of the market.   It is also worth noting the sector rotation that has occurred in the market. Last year, pro-inflationary sectors such as energy, commodities and protective market segments led the way amid concerns about inflation and uncertainty. This year, however, there has been a shift towards growth sectors, particularly technology, semiconductors and communications services, which have taken the lead.

Details of the Economic Calendar on September 26 European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane announced a shift in monetary policy towards a more accommodative stance but also presented forecasts indicating the possibility of the first interest rate cut as early as the second quarter of next year. Furthermore, the refinancing rate could be reduced by 150 basis points over the next two years. Based on this information, the euro accelerated its decline, and as a result, the British pound also shifted towards active weakening.   Analysis of Trading Charts from September 26 The EUR/USD currency pair concluded its pullback with a new surge in the volume of short positions. As a result, the local low of the downward cycle was updated, and the technical signal of oversold euro remains in the market. On the other hand, the GBP/USD pair, during its inertial movement, does not respond to technical signals of oversold conditions. As a result, the exchange rate fell below the level of 1.2150, indicating significant speculative interest in short positions. Economic Calendar for September 27 Today, the publication of data on durable goods orders in the United States is expected, with expectations of a decrease of 1.4% in the volume of these orders. This should be considered in light of the previous month when they fell by 5.2%. Thus, this will be the second consecutive month of declining orders for durable goods. Durable goods orders reflect the state of consumer activity, which is a driver of economic growth. If the data confirms a decline in orders, this could put pressure on the dollar in the market.     EUR/USD Trading Plan for September 27 Based on the oversold signal for the euro exchange rate, it can be assumed that the support level at 1.0500 may play as support. In this case, there is a scenario of slowing down the current downward cycle within this level, which could lead to an increase in the volume of long-term positions, potentially resulting in a partial recovery of the euro exchange rate. However, if speculators ignore the technical oversold signal and the exchange rate remains below the level of 1.0500 during the day, this could support the momentum in the euro market for some time.   GBP/USD Trading Plan for September 27 If the inertial movement continues in the market, and traders continue to ignore the technical oversold signal for the British pound, further depreciation of the exchange rate towards the psychological level of 1.1950/1.2050 is possible. What's on the charts The candlestick chart type is white and black graphic rectangles with lines above and below. With a detailed analysis of each individual candle, you can see its characteristics relative to a particular time frame: opening price, closing price, intraday high and low. Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a price may stop or reverse its trajectory. In the market, these levels are called support and resistance. Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price reversed in history. This color highlighting indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the asset's price in the future. The up/down arrows are landmarks of the possible price direction in the future.    

Cryptocurrencies kick off the new year with a strong performance, with Bitcoin surging by over 5% today, surpassing the $45,000 mark and resulting in a notable week-to-date and year-to-date gain for Bitcoin, reaching almost 9%. While the exact catalyst for this upward movement remains unclear, the overarching narrative in the cryptocurrency market centers around spot Bitcoin ETFs with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) currently evaluating multiple applications and with unconfirmed reports suggesting that a decision to approve these applications and facilitate the listing of spot Bitcoin ETFs could be imminent, possibly within the week. A Reuters report from December 29, 2023, hinted at the possibility that the US regulator might clear some spot Bitcoin ETFs either today or tomorrow, paving the way for the ETF launch on January 10, 2024. The authenticity of this report and the likelihood of the green light being imminent remain uncertain, but the cryptocurrency markets have been responsive to any positive news, even those with vague details. Bitcoin is currently trading at its highest level since April 2022, marking a daily high just below the $46,000 threshold and from a technical standpoint, the situation appears bullish, as BITCOIN has broken above the upper limit of the $41,000-44,300 trading range and continues to gain momentum. As optimism grows in the crypto space, It seems almost certain that a Bitcoin ETF will be approved and the main doubts are now about timing rather than anything else.