market forecast

GBP/USD may start moving upward this week, starting from the level of 1.2344 (closing of the last weekly candle) to 1.2499, which is a historical resistance level (blue dashed line). Upon reaching this price, the pair will climb further to 1.2678, which is an upper fractal (red dashed line).   Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis - upward Fibonacci levels - upward Volumes - upward Candlestick analysis - upward Trend analysis - downward Bollinger bands - upward Monthly chart - upward       All these point to an upward movement in GBP/USD. Conclusion: Most likely, the pair will have a bullish trend, with no first lower shadow on the weekly white candle (Monday - upward) and a second upper shadow (Friday - downward).   So during the week, pound will rise from 1.2344 (closing of the last weekly candle) to the historical resistance level at 1.2499 (blue dashed line), and then head to the upper fractal at 1.2678 (red dashed line).   Alternatively, the quote could go up from 1.2344 (closing of last week's candle) to the historical resistance level at 1.2499 (blue dashed line), and then turn around and fall down to the 38.2% retracement level at 1.2342 (red dashed line).  

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of Daily Price Movement of S&P 500 Index, Monday May 29, 2023   With the price movement in the channel that dips upwards and the two Moving Averages which are still in Golden Cross condition on the daily chart, we can see that Buyers are still dominating the S&P 500 index so that in the next few days #SPX has the potential to appreciate an upward rally up to penetrate above the level of 4216.17 and if this level is successfully broken above then the SPX still has the potential to go to the upper line of the bullish channel and/or the level of 4324.96 but please also pay attention if there is a downward correction which is indicated by the appearance of deviations between price movements and the MACD indicator because if a correction occurs If it breaks below the level of 4070.35 then all scenarios of a rally up above that have been described previously will become invalid.        

Expect the US dollar rally to extend    The US dollar broadly weakened across the board, helping majors to take some breather. The dollar index fell back towards its 200-DMA, the EURUSD settles above the 1.09 mark this morning, while Cable bulls eye a further rise toward the 50-DMA, which stands a touch below the 1.28 level. But looking at the US dollar and the real yields, the end of last year's dollar really coincides with a peak in 10-year real yield. Both started retreating in Q3 of last year. The dollar retreated relatively faster. And now that the real yields are on the rise again, there is little reason to keep the USD on a bearish trend for the months ahead.   The dollar rally which started by mid-July should further develop, and there is significant room for further correction before we could technically call the end of the dollar's bearish trend. In numbers, the dollar index will still be in a bearish trend below the 105.40 mark. Until that level is reached, investors don't have much to lose for jumping on the back of a bull.  

Oil prices have strengthened over the summer as fundamentals tighten, whilst natural gas prices have been volatile, with potential strike action in Australia leading to LNG supply uncertainty. Chinese concerns are weighing on metals, but grain markets appear more relaxed despite the collapse of the Black Sea deal.   Oil market tightness to persist Oil prices have strengthened over the summer, with ICE Brent convincingly breaking above US$80/bbl. The strength in the flat price has coincided with strength in time spreads, reflecting a tightening in the physical oil market. OPEC+ cuts, and in particular additional voluntary cuts from Saudi Arabia, mean that the market is drawing down inventories. We expect this trend will continue until the end of the year, which suggests that oil prices still have room to move higher from current levels. While the fundamentals are constructive, there are clear headwinds for the oil market. Firstly, it is becoming more apparent that the Fed will likely keep interest rates higher for longer and that, along with renewed USD strength, is a concern for markets. Secondly, Chinese macro data continues to disappoint, raising concerns over the outlook for the Chinese economy and what this ultimately means for oil demand. That said, up to now, Chinese demand indicators remain pretty strong. We expect the tight oil environment to persist through much of 2024 with limited non-OPEC supply growth, continued OPEC+ cuts and demand growth all ensuring that global inventories will decline. However, we could see some price weakness in early 2024, with the market forecast to be in a small surplus in the first quarter of next year before moving back into deficit for the remainder of 2024, which should keep prices well supported. The risks to our constructive view on the market (other than China demand concerns) include further growth in Iranian supply despite ongoing US sanctions and a possible easing in US sanctions against Venezuela, which could lead to some marginal increases in oil supply.  

Analysis of transactions and tips for trading GBP/USD Further decline became limited because the test of 1.2289 coincided with the sharp downward move of the MACD line from zero. The report on the UK house price index did not make an impression on traders, and pressure on the pair returned after the speeches made by Fed representatives. But today, pound may have a chance to compensate for losses, after the speech of Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. He should be full of optimism, hinting at the imminent winding down of aggressive policies and interest rate cuts. Pound will continue to fall if this does not happen.   For long positions: Buy when pound hits 1.2285 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2327 (thicker green line on the chart). Growth will occur after Andrew Bailey's statements or after protecting the support at 1.2260. However, when buying, ensure that the MACD line lies above zero or just starts to rise from it. Pound can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.2266, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2285 and 1.2327. For short positions: Sell when pound reaches 1.2266 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2229. Pressure will continue as soon as Bailey comments on the poor state of the UK economy and high inflation. However, when selling, ensure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Pound can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.2285, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2266 and 1.2229.   What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy GBP/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell GBP/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market