market demand

The official services and manufacturing PMIs were much weaker than expected, adding to the move into defensive assets on concerns over China's economy.   The Manufacturing PMI fell from 49.2 to 48.8 instead of the expected 49.5. Readings below 50 indicate a contraction in activity during the month. Excluding periods of contraction due to lockdowns, this is the lowest level for the index in at least 13 years. Prices were the main driver of the decline, but falling order books and inadequate market demand were equally worrying.   The Services PMI fell from 56.4 to 54.5, below the expected 55.1. While these levels are below expectations, they align with the historical norm we saw before the coronavirus.   The weak data triggered a fresh sell-off in the renminbi. The USDCNH pair was above 7.12 at the start of European trading, its highest level since November last year. Over the past three weeks, the pair has hit new highs almost daily. Unlike in March and December, the central bank has not prevented the renminbi from weakening around the 7.0 level.   A weaker local currency benefits exporters as it increases their global competitiveness. The main side effect is higher inflation. But this is fine for China, where the CPI fell to 0.1% y/y in April, and the PPI lost 3.6% y/y. Perhaps all these effects are what the People's Bank is trying to achieve.   The weak economy, low inflation and the central bank's apparent resistance to the Renminbi weakness suggest that the USDCNH pair will continue looking for a top. The closest landmark is the 2019 and 2020 highs at 7.19, which the pair can reach relatively orderly within a few weeks and maintain the current momentum. However, one should be prepared that the recent move will be exhausted before the renminbi weakens to 7.3 per dollar, approaching last October's highs.  

Borrowing needs will fall this year, meaning a lower supply of LCY bonds, but there is still a long way to go given the slow fiscal consolidation. Central and Eastern Europe should remain more active in the FX market than pre-Covid, while a busy January and the broadening of funding sources offer flexibility for the rest of the year Borrowing needs this year will be down on last year in the whole CEE region, with the exception of Poland. The decline is due to both lower budget deficits and redemptions. In contrast, in Poland, both have increased year-on-year. Overall, the supply of local currency bonds should fall but remain well above pre-Covid levels. Given lower yields, this supply may prove more difficult to place in the market compared to last year, which saw strong market demand despite record supply. This time is different, and we expect financial markets to be tougher and punish more budget overruns and additional issuance. Local currency issuance: Improvement but still a long way to go From a positioning perspective, we find the Romanian government bond (ROMGBs) market to be overcrowded after the significant inflows last year. On the other hand, the significantly underweight Polish government bond (POLGBs) market should help cover the historically record borrowing needs. Czech government bonds (CZGBs) and Hungarian government bonds (HGBs) remain somewhere in between with steady foreign inflows into the market. On the sovereign ratings side, all the obvious changes happened last year and should stabilise this year with only some adjustments in outlooks in the pipeline, unless a more significant shock arrives. On the local currency supply side, we see a clear improvement from last year in the Czech Republic, as it was a bright spot in the CEE region with credible public finance consolidation. In addition, we see it as the only country in the region with positive risks of a lower supply of CZGBs than the Ministry of Finance indicates. Hungary has also made great progress here, of course, with the traditional broad diversification of funding sources that should keep the pressure off the HGB market in the event of an overshoot of the projected deficit. In contrast, we see only a relatively small improvement in Romania, where the supply of ROMGBs will fall only a little. The supply of Polish government bonds, meanwhile, was already at a record-high last year and is set to rise a little more this year. In addition, the use of additional sources to avoid flooding the local currency bond market will increase significantly, which we believe represents the biggest challenge for the bond market in the CEE region this year.   FX issuance: Fast start and diverse funding sources offer flexibility On the FX side, CEE sovereigns are set to remain active in the Eurobond primary market in 2024 and beyond, with the overall trend driven by recent external shocks from Covid and surging energy prices, along with structural factors such as the energy transition in Europe. A key theme that unites regular issuers Romania, Poland, and Hungary is the diversification of funding sources, with more consistent interest in the US dollar, as well as alternative currencies such as the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, alongside the more traditional euro for the region. The growing green bond market is also an area of focus, with Hungary leading the way, and Romania set to follow this year. At the same time, 2024 should see some divergence, with Poland taking the lead in the region for Eurobond issuance and set to be one of the largest EM sovereign issuers globally this year. Hungary should see a slight reduction in Eurobond supply compared to recent years, with its strategy of diversifying funding sources and front-loading supply providing plenty of flexibility for the rest of the year. Romania should retain its position as a regular issuer, although net supply will be lower this year, while catching up with Poland and Hungary in terms of diverse funding sources via green issuance and alternative currencies. A strong start to the year, with almost $15bn in issuance for CEE in January so far, should mean less pressure on the region to issue later in the year if market conditions turn.  

The cryptocurrency market is well-known for its volatility, meaning that prices can experience substantial fluctuations in a short period. Given the significant unpredictability and inherent risks associated with the cryptocurrency market, insider advice can provide invaluable assistance to investors. Additionally, individuals who possess insider information may have access to early information regarding upcoming developments, partnerships, or regulatory changes that could impact the market. Individuals who have inside information often enjoy the benefit of having access to secret knowledge, industry expertise, and analytical tools. These resources are valuable in understanding market trends, essential project details, and potential investment opportunities. Utilizing their evaluations and recommendations can help investors navigate the complex and volatile world of cryptocurrency more effectively. This article explores the techniques insiders use to evaluate the market and the strategies they use to predict the next big cryptocurrency coin.  How Insiders Evaluate The Next Big Cryptocurrency Experts who have inside information use the following factors to identify which cryptocurrencies are likely to be profitable and have long-term growth. This method of analyzing the basics provides a detailed framework for assessing the true value and future potential of a cryptocurrency project. It's also helpful for determining the investment worth of the next big hitting cryptocurrency coin.   Technological Innovation  Analysts and investors, who have access to privileged information, will evaluate a cryptocurrency project based on its innovation and technical capabilities. They will examine its scalability, security features, and effectiveness in solving real-world issues. A crypto coin that uses advanced technology and groundbreaking solutions is expected to gain traction that might explode resulting in sustained success in the long run. Let’s say you are assessing a new cryptocurrency project for the Sponge V2 meme coin, for example. For instance, you would examine whether Sponge V2 brings in innovative technology, such as a distinct consensus mechanism or enhanced privacy features, that effectively resolves an issue that other cryptocurrencies have not addressed.  In the case of the Sponge V2 meme coin, it provides faster transaction speeds since it operates on the Polygon Blockchain network, which could attract individuals looking for faster payment alternatives. Team Expertise and Execution The skills and accomplishments of the development team can have a substantial impact on the success of a project. Insiders who are well-versed in the project's intricacies typically assess the team members' expertise, background, and previous achievements. A team that is both experienced and competent excels in overcoming challenges, materializing the project's vision, and delivering on its commitments.   Use Case and Utility Case and utility refers to evaluating the practicality and market value of the cryptocurrency project by studying its application in real-world scenarios. Experts assess whether the project addresses a genuine issue or fulfills a specific purpose and determine if it offers unique attributes or benefits compared to existing alternatives. A cryptocurrency that possesses a unique purpose and adds tangible value is expected to attract users and attain wider acceptance. Using the Sponge V2 as a prime example, the case and utility for this digital currency intends to improve the way the community interacts and participates. It distinguishes itself from other cryptocurrencies by prioritizing meme culture and community-led initiatives.   Market Demand and Performance Insiders will analyze the level of demand in the market and assess the project's performance metrics in order to determine its likelihood of success. These factors include: Market capitalization which represents the collective worth of all coins that are currently in circulation.  The trading volume which is the level of activity in trading.  Real-world adoption that refers to the practical usage of cryptocurrencies for transactions or other objectives. Pro tip: A cryptocurrency with high demand and positive performance indicators typically stands a better chance of achieving success in the market.   Trends and Predictions A market analysis based on the trends and predictions is conducted in the field to gain insight into the future direction of cryptocurrency projects. The assessment involves determining whether the project aligns with emerging trends in the cryptocurrency industry and its potential for sustained expansion. Right now, crypto experts are indicating that Sponge V2 meme coin holds promise for substantial success. The reason behind this is the rising enthusiasm for decentralized finance applications, and if Sponge V2 establishes itself as a prominent participant in this field, it could gain advantages from this expanding trend.  Additionally, analysts also forecast that the value of Sponge V2 meme coin will grow owing to its solid foundational principles and the dynamics of the market. All of these factors collectively contribute to the optimistic perspective regarding this particular cryptocurrency. 6 Effective Insider Strategies  Here are 7 pro tips to help you analyse the market and gain insight into the next big crypto coin: 1. Check the Total Supply and Circulation The value and potential growth of a cryptocurrency depend on its total supply and the amount currently being used. When the total supply is low and there is a reasonable circulation, it can result in scarcity. This scarcity can boost demand and cause the price to rise. If there is a high total supply and a large portion is already circulating, it may indicate less scarcity and affect the cryptocurrency's price movement. 2. Monitor the Price and Volume Monitoring the price and quantity of transactions provides valuable insights into market sentiment and investor involvement. When trading volume significantly increases and prices rise, it can indicate growing enthusiasm and a potential upward market trend. On the other hand, decreased trading volume or stable prices may suggest declining interest or a lack of buying pressure. 3. Pay Attention to Bitcoin Halving The Bitcoin halving event, happening in April 2024, reduces the rate at which new Bitcoins are created by half. Historically, Bitcoin halving has been associated with bull markets and significant price increases due to decreased supply and increased scarcity. By carefully reviewing the timing and impact of Bitcoin halvings, you can acquire valuable information about potential market trends and the beginning of a new phase of price escalation. 1. Regularly Review Market Analysis and Expert Insights In order to accurately predict the next prominent cryptocurrency, it is vital to conduct thorough research and analyze market trends. Gathering knowledge from experienced individuals and using strategies based on data is vital. Understanding the dynamics of the market, upcoming events, and technological advancements can assist investors in identifying promising opportunities and assessing the possible risks associated with various cryptocurrency ventures. 2. Follow Community and Social Media Closely Monitoring discussions on social media sites and online communities can provide valuable insights into future trends and potential investment opportunities. Engaging in conversations with the crypto community helps investors stay informed about emerging digital currencies, project developments, and market sentiment, allowing them to identify promising projects before they gain popularity among the general public. 3. Avoid Frequent Token Unlocks Projects that regularly release tokens, thereby making a significant number of tokens accessible for buying on the market, can diminish the cryptocurrency's worth and hinder its price. It is crucial for investors to be cautious when engaging with projects that have an excessive number of token unlocks, as this may significantly impact the cryptocurrency's long-term potential for growth. Conclusion Being able to predict the next major cryptocurrency coins requires a combination of informed analysis and a keen understanding of the market. Those who are knowledgeable in this area use various strategies to identify promising opportunities. However, it is important to understand the risks associated with investing in digital currencies and conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.