long-term trend

Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has been seen getting away from the swing low located at the level of 1.0636 and the recent local high was made at the level of 1.0780, just above the technical resistance seen at 1.0761.   The immediate technical support is seen at the level of 1.0747. On the other hand, the next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.0623 and the down move should resume as soon as the pull-back is done. There is no indication of the down trend to terminate or reverse yet. The market participants await the NFP-Payrolls data release that might trigger an increase in volatility.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.07387 WR2 - 1.07284 WR1 - 1.07229 Weekly Pivot - 1.07181 WS1 - 1.07126 WS2 - 1.07078 WS3 - 1.06975   Trading Outlook: Since the beginning of October 2022 the EUR/USD is in the corrective cycle to the upside, but the main, long-term trend remains bearish. This corrective cycle might had been terminated at the level of 1.2080 which is 61% Fibonacci retracement level. The EUR had made a new multi-decade low at the level of 0.9538, so as long as the USD is being bought all across the board, the down trend will continue towards the new lows.  

On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair grew "out of nowhere" again. And it was an impressive one at that. Take note that there was no significant news from the UK this week. If, for example, the Bank of England had made hawkish statements, the movement would have been understandable.   However, all the data that influenced the market came from overseas, and many of them favored the dollar. The situation with the euro is slightly different, which explains its growth. After all, yesterday and the daybefore that, several important reports were released in the EU, two speeches by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde took place, and the ECB minutes were published. But it is very difficult to say why the pound is rising again.       However, we did experience a good intraday trending movement yesterday, which made the trading signals strong and profitable. Initially, the pair consolidated below the range of 1.2429-1.2445 and managed to move down by about 20 pips, allowing for setting a stop loss at breakeven and leaving the trade without losses when the pair consolidated above the mentioned range. Based on the buy signal, long positions should have been opened, and the price subsequently surpassed the nearest target level of 1.2520.   The trade should have been manually closed in the evening, resulting in a profit of about 75 pips, which is quite good. But let's reiterate: it is convenient to trade when there is a strong and trend-driven movement. It is necessary to avoid flat markets.     According to the latest report, non-commercial traders closed 8,100 long positions and 7,100 short ones. The net position dropped by 1,000 but remained bullish. Over the past 9-10 months, the net position has been on the rise despite bearish sentiment. The pound is bullish against the greenback in the medium term, but there have been hardly any reasons for that. We assume that a prolonged bear run has begun. COT reports suggest a bullish continuation. However, we can hardly explain why the uptrend should go on.   Both major pairs are in correlation now. At the same time, the positive net position on EUR/USD shows the end of the uptrend. Meanwhile, the net position on GBP/USD is neutral. The pound has gained about 2,300 pips. Therefore, a bearish correction is now needed. Otherwise, a bullish continuation would make no sense even despite the lack of support from fundamental factors. Overall, non-commercial traders hold 57,600 sell positions and 69,200 long ones. We do not see the pair extending growth in the long term.     In the 1-hour time frame, the pair has started an upward movement, surpassing all the lines of the Ichimoku indicator. The pound doesn't exactly have grounds to buy the pound, which remains heavily overbought. However, take note that the market has the right to trade regardless of the fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop. The only thing I can say is that the movement doesn't correspond to the nature of the reports and news.   On June 2, trading levels are seen at 1.2269, 1.2349, 1.2429-1.2445, 1.2520, 1.2589, 1.2666, 1.2762. Senkou Span B (1.2550) and Kijun-sen (1.2375) lines may also generate signals when the price either breaks or bounces off them. A Stop Loss should be placed at the breakeven point when the price goes 20 pips in the right direction. Ichimoku indicator lines can move intraday, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.   There are also support and resistance which can be used for locking in profits. Today, the event calendar is empty in the UK.   On the other hand, the United States will release its highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment reports. We have no doubt that the market will react to them, and the reaction could be practically anything - it is currently impossible to predict the values of the reports. Indicators on charts:   Resistance/support - thick red lines, near which the trend may stop. They do not make trading signals. The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the Ichimoku indicator lines moved to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are also strong lines. Extreme levels are thin red lines, from which the price used to bounce earlier. They can produce trading signals. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT chart is the size of the net position of each trader category. Indicator 2 on the COT chart is the size of the net position for the Non-commercial group of traders.  

Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has been seen bouncing from the local low made at the level of 1.0675 and so far the high of the bounce was made at the level of 1.0732. The intraday technical resistance is seen at 1.0780, so bulls need to break out above this level in order to continue higher. Any breakout below the level of 1.0675 would sustain the bearish outlook and put the level of 1.0636 for a test (swing low). The weak and negative momentum supports the short-term bearish outlook for EUR as the bulls are not able to move above the neutral level of fifty on the RSI indicator.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.07335 WR2 - 1.07121 WR1 - 1.06983 Weekly Pivot - 1.06907 WS1 - 1.06769 WS2 - 1.06693 WS3 - 1.06479   Trading Outlook: Since the beginning of October 2022 the EUR/USD is in the corrective cycle to the upside, but the main, long-term trend remains bearish. This corrective cycle might had been terminated at the level of 1.2080 which is 61% Fibonacci retracement level. The EUR had made a new multi-decade low at the level of 0.9538, so as long as the USD is being bought all across the board, the down trend will continue towards the new lows.  

Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has been seen bouncing from the local low made at the level of 1.0675 and so far the high of the bounce was made at the level of 1.0732. The intraday technical resistance is seen at 1.0780, so bulls need to break out above this level in order to continue higher. Any breakout below the level of 1.0675 would sustain the bearish outlook and put the level of 1.0636 for a test (swing low). The weak and negative momentum supports the short-term bearish outlook for EUR as the bulls are not able to move above the neutral level of fifty on the RSI indicator.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.07335 WR2 - 1.07121 WR1 - 1.06983 Weekly Pivot - 1.06907 WS1 - 1.06769 WS2 - 1.06693 WS3 - 1.06479   Trading Outlook: Since the beginning of October 2022 the EUR/USD is in the corrective cycle to the upside, but the main, long-term trend remains bearish. This corrective cycle might had been terminated at the level of 1.2080 which is 61% Fibonacci retracement level. The EUR had made a new multi-decade low at the level of 0.9538, so as long as the USD is being bought all across the board, the down trend will continue towards the new lows.  

Crypto Industry News: Brian Armstrong, head of Coinbase, and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) are preparing for a showdown. This could affect the future of the cryptocurrency industry. Armstrong has strongly expressed his dissatisfaction with the SEC's approach, which appears to be clearly targeting the broader crypto industry. Armstrong mercilessly criticized the SEC via Twitter.     He alleged that instead of striving to understand companies in the cryptocurrency industry, more massive logs are still thrown at their feet. He argues that the SEC - as a state regulator - should instruct similar companies. Guide how to operate in accordance with the regulations, instead of fighting them in court. The CEO of Coinbase has made it clear that he is proud to represent the industry in court in the search for clarity of rules for the crypto space. This seems especially important in light of the fact that the regulator carefully looked at Coinbase's activities before agreeing to its listing on the stock exchange.     It seems that Armstrong and his team are determined to lead the fight for the future of the cryptocurrency industry. In response to the SEC chairman's call, Armstrong explained that there is no pathway in the current system that would allow it to function legally. He also pointed to conflicting statements issued by the SEC and the Futures Trading Commission on the differences between a security and a commodity.       Technical Market Outlook: The BTC/USD pair has made a V-shape reversal from the lows seen at the level of $25,442 and is currently trading above 50 and 100 MA around the level of $27,000. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $27,452 and $27,570. The key short them technical resistance is the swing high located at the level of $28,446 and only a sustained breakout above this level would be considered more bullish. The intraday technical support is seen at $25,892. The strong and positive momentum on the H4 time frame chart supports the short-term bullish outlook for BTC.   Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - $28,056 WR2 - $27,490 WR1 - $27,126 Weekly Pivot - $26,917 WS1 - $26,553 WS2 - $26,343 WS3 - $25,770      Trading Outlook: The bulls broken above the gamechanging level located at $25,442, so now the mid-term outlook for BTC is bullish. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $32,350. As long as the level of 19,572 is not clearly violated, there is a chance for a long-term up trend to continue.        

The EUR/USD pair has been rejected from the 50 and 100 MA located at 1.0886 and in the short-term the bulls are under pressure. Currently, the volatility on the market was subdued and the market participants await the fundamental trigger to increase the market movement.   The immediate technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.0883 (100 MA), but the key technical support is seen at 1.0836. Please notice, the momentum is back under the level of fifty, so there is a confirmation of the bearish pressure on the lower time frame charts. Only a sustained breakout above the moving average dynamic resistance would change the outlook to more bullish. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.09868 WR2 - 1.09389 WR1 - 1.09120 Weekly Pivot - 1.08910 WS1 - 1.08641 WS2 - 1.08431 WS3 - 1.07952   Trading Outlook: Since the beginning of October 2022 the EUR/USD is in the corrective cycle to the upside, but the main, long-term trend remains bearish. This corrective cycle might had been terminated at the level of 1.2080 which is 61% Fibonacci retracement level. The EUR had made a new multi-decade low at the level of 0.9538, so as long as the USD is being bought all across the board, the down trend will continue towards the new lows. Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/329986      

EUR/USD Higher timeframes Bulls continue to rise, but failed to close above the high of the daily correction (1.1012) yesterday. This mark and the next high of the weekly correction (1.1096) remain the main targets of the current upward movement. The nearest supports of the higher timeframes today are 1.0936 (daily short-term trend) and 1.0901 (monthly medium-term trend).       H4 - H1 On lower timeframes, the main advantage now belongs to the bulls. As of writing, they are testing the first resistance of the classic pivot points (1.1031), and further targets for an intraday rise are R2 (1.1053) and R3 (1.1080). The key levels today serve as supports and are located at 1.1004 (central pivot point) and 1.0939 (weekly long-term trend); intermediate supports are S1 (1.0982) and S2 (1.0955). The weekly long-term trend (1.0939) is currently reinforced by the daily short-term trend (1.0936), so a consolidation below will help change the current balance of power not only on lower timeframes but also on the daily timeframe.

Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has bounced from the key technical resistance located at 1.0834 and is heading towards the 100 MA on H4 time frame chart located at 1.0887. The big Head & Shoulders pattern on the H4 time frame chart extends the market drop the downside with a potential target seen at the level of 1.0636 (H&S measurement), however, now is the time for a pull-back. The intraday technical support is seen at the level of 1.0841 and the intraday technical resistance is located at 1.0893. The strong and positive momentum on the H4 time frame chart supports the short-term bullish outlook for EUR.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.08599 WR2 - 1.08348 WR1 - 1.08265 Weekly Pivot - 1.08097 WS1 - 1.08014 WS2 - 1.07846 WS3 - 1.07595   Trading Outlook: Since the beginning of October 2022 the EUR/USD is in the corrective cycle to the upside, but the main, long-term trend remains bearish. This corrective cycle might be terminated at the level of 1.1286 which is 61% Fibonacci retracement level when it is hit, so please keep an eye on this level and the way the market participants (bulls and bears) will deal with it.