Kijun-sen line

On Friday, the GBP/USD pair fell after strong US data. The first half of the day saw a similar flat movement as the euro, while the second half witnessed a decline. However, the GBP/USD pair maintains an uptrend, with the price still above the Ichimoku indicator lines. Therefore, it could trade higher this week, despite the complete absence of fundamental and macroeconomic reasons for such a move. We still believe that both the pound and the euro should be falling. It is possible that they corrected last week so that it can continue moving downward.       The trading signals for the pound were almost identical to those for the euro. During the European trading session, the price rebounded from the level of 1.2520 but failed to move in the right direction even by 20 pips. It was advisable to close the long position before the release of US data. Later, two sell signals formed near the same level, which traders could use to open a short position. Long positions were not recommended at that time as the reports clearly favored the dollar. Subsequently, the price dropped to the level of 1.2445, where the shorts should have been closed. The profit from them amounted to around 60 pips.     According to the latest report, non-commercial traders opened 1,100 long positions and closed 500 short ones. The net position increased by 600 and remained bullish. Over the past 9-10 months, the net position has been on the rise despite bearish sentiment. The pound is bullish against the greenback in the medium term, but there have been hardly any reasons for that. We assume that a prolonged bear run has begun. COT reports suggest a bullish continuation. However, we can hardly explain why the uptrend should go on.   Both major pairs are in correlation now. At the same time, the positive net position on EUR/USD shows the end of the uptrend. Meanwhile, the net position on GBP/USD is neutral. The pound has gained about 2,300 pips. Therefore, a bearish correction is now needed. Otherwise, a bullish continuation would make no sense even despite the lack of support from fundamental factors. Overall, non-commercial traders hold 57,000 sell positions and 70,300 long ones. We do not see the pair extending growth in the long term.     In the 1-hour time frame, the pair has started an upward movement, and even after Friday's decline, it remains above the Ichimoku indicator lines. The pound doesn't exactly have grounds to buy the pound, which remains heavily overbought. However, take note that the market has the right to trade regardless of the fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop.   For now, let's consider that we have seen a strong correction last week and expect a revival of the downward movement. On June 5, trading levels are seen at 1.2269, 1.2349, 1.2429-1.2445, 1.2520, 1.2589, 1.2666, 1.2762. The Senkou Span B line (1.2408) and the Kijun-sen line (1.2434) lines may also generate signals when the price either breaks or bounces off them.   A Stop Loss should be placed at the breakeven point when the price goes 20 pips in the right direction. Ichimoku indicator lines can move intraday, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also support and resistance which can be used for locking in profits.   Today, both the UK and the US will release their respective Services PMIs for May. The UK data can influence traders' sentiment, as well as the US ISM data. Of course, it would be nice for the values of these data to deviate from the forecast, and the stronger the deviation, the stronger the market reaction may be.   Indicators on charts: Resistance/support - thick red lines, near which the trend may stop. They do not make trading signals. The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the Ichimoku indicator lines moved to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are also strong lines. Extreme levels are thin red lines, from which the price used to bounce earlier. They can produce trading signals. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT chart is the size of the net position of each trader category. Indicator 2 on the COT chart is the size of the net position for the Non-commercial group of traders.  

The GBP/USD currency pair failed to continue its upward movement for the third consecutive time on Tuesday after consolidating above the moving average line. It is worth noting that last week the pair showed significant growth, but there were hardly any solid reasons behind such a movement. Just looking at the calendar of fundamental events and the movements of the EUR/USD pair during the same period confirms this.   Currently, the pound is trying to figure out its next move. It remains close to its local peaks, which are too high for its current conditions. Remember that there are no substantial reasons for it to be that high. One of the reasons for the pound's strong rally in recent weeks could have been the oversold condition of the CCI indicator on May 11.     But it has already been accounted for and worked out in this case. It's time to head down again. There were no important publications or events in the UK or the US on Tuesday. Overall, this week will have a limited number of important events and news.     Therefore, the pair may continue to swing sideways. However, in the medium term, we expect it to decline in almost any case. Whether it will happen remains an open question because the market has shown us in recent months that it can buy when 80% of the factors suggest selling. In the 24-hour timeframe, the price rebounded from a critical line, and this signal is the main hope for a decline soon.     The Kijun-sen line is strong, so a decline can be expected after the rebound. Additionally, there won't be any significant reports or events soon to shift the market sentiment to "bullish" again suddenly. No matter how you look at it, the word "decline" is evident everywhere. There is no fundamental background, only sell signals. Regarding the fundamental background, there is nothing new to say after Tuesday.     There weren't even any minor speeches from the Bank of England or Fed officials. The next Federal Reserve meeting will occur on June 13-14, so the "quiet period" has already begun. This means there will be no speeches by Fed representatives until the meeting.   The same applies to BoE members. The topic of US government debt is closed. There is no news. Therefore, the pair may trade chaotically and flatly or swing back and forth over the next few weeks. Be prepared for any outcome. By the way, the CCI indicator almost entered the overbought zone again. If that had happened, the probability of a new decline would have increased significantly. Without that, we can only wait for a decline and be wary of another illogical rally.       We have already discussed the Fed rates in the article on EUR/USD; there is nothing new about the Bank of England's rates. It will undoubtedly increase by 0.25% at the next meeting, the thirteenth consecutive hike. Inflation in the UK remains high, and there is no guarantee it will slow down at the same pace as in April. Thus, the British regulator cannot ease its monetary pressure, but at the same time, the rate has already risen to 4.5%. This is not the maximum possible value. The rate could increase by another 0.25-0.5%, but GDP has remained near zero growth for three consecutive quarters. According to Andrew Bailey, each subsequent rate hike could harm the British economy, which will not enter a recession this year.   But it's uncertain. Let's mention the "head and shoulders" pattern forming between May 30 and June 6. If it is indeed forming, it provides another sell signal. Two shoulders are around the level of 1.2451. The head is around the level of 1.2543. The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the past five trading days is 98 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average."   Therefore, on Wednesday, June 7, we expect movements between 1.2322 and 1.2518. Reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator back upward will signal a new upward movement phase.     Nearest support levels: S1 - 1.2421 S2 - 1.2390 S3 - 1.2360   Nearest resistance levels: R1 - 1.2451 R2 - 1.2482 R3 - 1.2512   Trading recommendations: On the 4-hour timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has settled below the moving average line, so short positions are currently relevant, with targets at 1.2360 and 1.2329. These positions should be held until the Heiken Ashi indicator reverses upward. Long positions can be considered if the price consolidates above the moving average line with targets at 1.2482 and 1.2512.   Explanations for the illustrations: Linear regression channels - help determine the current trend. The trend is strong if both channels are directed in the same direction. Moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) - determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted.   Murray levels - target levels for movements and corrections. Volatility levels (red lines) - the probable price channel in which the pair will move the next day based on current volatility indicators. CCI indicator - its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or overbought area (above +250) indicates an upcoming trend reversal in the opposite direction.  

1H chart of GBP/USD In the 1-hour time frame, the pair started an upward movement and just as quickly ended it. The market insists on buying the pound, which remains significantly overbought and unjustifiably high. However, take note that the market has the right to trade regardless of the fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop. For now, we will consider the strong correction that we've seen last week and expect a revival of the downward movement.   On June 7, trading levels are seen at 1.2269, 1.2349, 1.2429-1.2445, 1.2520, 1.2589, 1.2666, 1.2762. The Senkou Span B line (1.2395) and the Kijun-sen line (1.2455) lines may also generate signals when the price either breaks or bounces off them. A Stop Loss should be placed at the breakeven point when the price goes 20 pips in the right direction. Ichimoku indicator lines can move intraday, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also support and resistance which can be used for locking in profits. On Wednesday, there are no important events scheduled in either the UK or the US. Therefore, there will be no specific events to react to during the day, and volatility could be low again, and we can't expect trend-driven movements either.     Indicators on charts: Resistance/support - thick red lines, near which the trend may stop. They do not make trading signals. The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the Ichimoku indicator lines moved to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are also strong lines. Extreme levels are thin red lines, from which the price used to bounce earlier. They can produce trading signals. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT chart is the size of the net position of each trader category. Indicator 2 on the COT chart is the size of the net position for the Non-commercial group of traders.  

GBP/USD accelerates on Friday. Yesterday, there were no significant events lined up in the UK, but the US data turned out to be slightly weaker than expected. Reports on unemployment claims and industrial production were worse than traders' expectations, but there were also reports that exceeded forecasts (retail sales).   Therefore, if the US data were not in favor of the dollar, it was not to the extent that it would fall by 140 pips in a day. On the other hand, the European Central Bank held its meeting, the results of which had no relation to the pound. In addition, the market had already expected its results a couple of weeks ago, if not more. And despite all that the pound still rallied, even more strongly than the euro. Thus, the pound extends its illogical growth. The first sell signal near the 1.2659 level turned out to be false. The price could not move in the right direction even by 20 pips, so the short position closed with a small loss at the beginning of the US trading session when a buy signal appeared. Later, the pair confidently rose to the 1.2762 level and surpassed it. No sell signals were formed for the rest of the day, so traders could close their long positions anywhere.     The profit from this trade amounted to at least 100 pips. COT report: According to the latest report, non-commercial traders closed 5,200 long positions and 4,500 short ones. The net position dropped by 700 but remained bullish. Over the past 9-10 months, the net position has been on the rise despite bearish sentiment. In fact, sentiment is now bullish, but it is a pure formality. The pound is bullish against the greenback in the medium term, but there have been hardly any reasons for that. We assume that a prolonged bear run may soon begin even though COT reports suggest a bullish continuation. However, we can hardly explain why the uptrend should go on.     The pound has gained about 2,300 pips. Therefore, a bearish correction is now needed. Otherwise, a bullish continuation would make no sense even despite the lack of support from fundamental factors. Overall, non-commercial traders hold 52,500 sell positions and 65,000 long ones. We do not see the pair extending growth in the long term. 1H chart of GBP/USD In the 1-hour chart, maintains a bullish bias. The ascending trend line serves as a buy signal but I believe that further growth of the British currency is groundless. The pound sterling has been climbing for too long and downward corrections are short-lived. Judging by the technical indicators, we have an uptrend.   Yet, it is hard to find the reasons which may push it higher. Nevertheless, the market has no logical reason to buy at the moment. On June 16, trading levels are seen at 1.2349, 1.2429-1.2445, 1.2520, 1.2589, 1.2666, 1.2762, 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987. The Senkou Span B line (1.2472) and the Kijun-sen line (1.2638) may also generate signals when the price either breaks or bounces off them. A Stop Loss should be placed at the breakeven point when the price goes 20 pips in the right direction. Ichimoku indicator lines can move intraday, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also support and resistance which can be used for locking in profits. On Friday, there are no important events lined up in the UK, while the US will only release the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Since there are no significant events today, we might witness a slight bearish correction. However, the pound can still rise since it doesn't need any logical reason behind it.

Analysis of GBP/USD 5M   GBP/USD traded higher on Thursday, in contrast to the EUR/USD, which saw growth. Volatility increased slightly, but this doesn't change the fact that the pair is still trading within a sideways channel. The pair could move in any direction within such a channel, so it could be quite chaotic. Since the lower band of this channel was the last target, it makes sense that the pair is now moving towards the upper band. The pair does not need any macroeconomic or fundamental background for this movement. And there wasn't any yesterday, as there was nothing to note except for the neutral report on US unemployment claims. As a result, we are currently observing purely technical movements within the flat. On the other hand, yesterday's technical signals were practically ideal, especially in the first half of the day. The Kijun-sen line needed to be adjusted as it moved to the 1.2700 level during the day. The pair bounced off this level during the European trading session. Subsequently, it started a fairly strong upward move, overcame the Senkou Span B line, and reached the 1.2786 mark, where traders should have taken profit. It was about 60 pips. The rebound from 1.2786 should also have been executed using a short position. The price started to fall, overcame the Senkou Span B line once again, and there were no buy signals. Therefore, short positions should have been closed manually closer to the evening. The profit for them was about 35 pips.   COT report:   According to the latest report, the non-commercial group of traders closed 8,900 long positions and 6,300 short ones. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders fell by almost 2,600 positions in a week. The net position has been steadily growing over the past 11 months as well as the pound sterling. Now, the net position has advanced markedly. This is why the pair will hardly maintain its bullish momentum. I believe that a long and protracted downward movement should begin. COT reports signal a slight growth of the British currency but it will not be able to rise in the long term. There are no drivers for opening new long positions. Slowly, sell signals are emerging on the 4-hour and 24-hour charts. The British currency has already grown by a total of 2,800 pips, from its absolute lows reached last year, which is a significant increase. Without a downward correction, the continuation of the uptrend will be illogical. However, there has been no logic in the pair's movements for quite some time. The market perceives the fundamental background one-sidedly, ignoring any data in favor of the dollar. The Non-commercial group of traders has a total of 83,200 long positions and 36,200 short ones. I remain skeptical about the long-term growth of the pound sterling, and the market has recently begun to pay attention to short positions.   Analysis of GBP/USD 1H On the 1H chart, the pound/dollar pair continues to trade within a sideways channel. The channel has slightly expanded, so the flat hasn't ended. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator are currently weak, but they worked very well in the market yesterday. However, false and inaccurate signals may form around them. Today, the pair could rise to the level of 1.2807 or something lower. On August 18, traders should pay attention to the following key levels: 1.2520, 1.2605-1.2620, 1.2693, 1.2786, 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987, 1.3050. The Senkou Span B (1.2807) and Kijun-sen (1.2700) lines can also be sources of signals, e.g. rebounds and breakout of these levels and lines. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss orders at the breakeven level when the price moves in the right direction by 20 pips. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are support and resistance levels that can be used to lock in profits. On Friday, the UK will release a report on retail sales. Nothing lined up for the UK. Therefore, macroeconomics will not have a significant impact on the pair's movement today either, and the price will likely trade within the sideways channel.   Description of the chart: Support and resistance levels are thick red lines near which the trend may end. They do not provide trading signals; The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, plotted to the 1H timeframe from the 4H one. They provide trading signals; Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price bounced earlier. They provide trading signals; Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns; Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the net position size for each category of traders; Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the net position size for the Non-commercial group.