jpy

Pfizer and BioNTech released the results of their recent laboratory study which found that their vaccine’s antibody response is capable of neutralizing omicron (levels similar to 2 doses against previous strains) after three doses. There was a more than 25-fold reduction in the efficacy of the vaccine however, showing the 32 mutations in omicron does certainly have an impact. The vaccine induced T cells are not affected by omicron and should therefore still provide protection from severe symptoms. To finish off a Japanese study showed that omicron was 4.2 times more transmissible than delta in its early stage. We know that omicron was far more transmissible already so this isn’t a major shock, however, the issue with higher transmissibility is the opportunity for further new variants to arise which (hopefully) will not increase in lethality. Dollar Index (DXY): The greenback is basically flat from where it started the week as traders remain hesitant to push price in a new direction until today’s CPI result is out the way. Omicron news as mentioned above has been on the positive side so risk-off flows derived from that side of things has been non-existent. However, where we could see more safe haven bids for the dollar is from any escalation in the Russia Ukraine tensions, with an invasion very likely seeing risk-off ensconcing markets. This would clearly benefit the dollar on the lhs of the smile (risk-off). Data wise, job numbers filled the rather quiet calendar throughout the week with vacancies reaching new records as well as jobless claims breaching the 200k mark, coming in at 184k. We also had bond auctions coming to the fore, beginning with the front end of the curve, 3-year auctions showed strong demand despite today’s inflation numbers; moving to the back end of the curve the 10-year also showed relatively robust demand. It was the 30-year bond which was very weak with yields spiking higher leading to fears over today’s inflation numbers being the main driver. Inflation numbers were smack bang in line with consensus at 6.8% YoY (highest since 1982) and 4.9% YoY for core. The initial market reaction saw the dollar softer as short term rates fell (clearly the market was positioned for 7%), but that initial dollar weakness is now being retraced as it's still a solid number (Fed won't change path) with prices increases broad based.  Next week the focus will be on the Fed meeting where the risks are definitely tilted towards the hawkish side for the dollar. (Source: TradingView - Past performance is not indicative of future performance.) The dollar is ever so slightly above its upper trend line and the 21-day EMA has provided good dynamic support. The RSI has bounced off the 55 support level too keeping the uptrend momentum in tact. There is some resistance at 96.5 to monitor and on the downside the 21-day EMA would be important to watch if price slides. EURUSD: The euro continues to tread water as it faces headwinds on multiple fronts. The week began with fairly positive ZEW sentiment reading with current conditions missing (expected with covid restrictions), but the main index reading more positive than expected. Olaf Scholz has now been inducted as Chancellor of Germany with the end of Merkel’s reign officially coming to an end. European gas has been soaring again as tensions between Russia and US led to reports than Biden could implement sanctions on Russia. Europe is highly exposed to the price of natural gas so this could be one to watch for sure. Next week sees a very important ECB meeting with a fresh set of economic projections out (I’ll be watching their inflation forecasts particularly) as well as insights into how they’ll navigate the completion of their PEPP programme and transition. I’ll be providing a preview next week.  (Source: TradingView - Past performance is not indicative of future performance.) EURUSD moves sideways with a slight tilt towards the downside capped by the overhead 21-day EMA. 1.135 resistance has formed as the one to watch. The price support at 1.125 should be on your radar too. The RSI has rolled over a touch and pointing lower. The former low around the lower trend line at 1.12 could be very important over the next week. GBPUSD: Sterling has been under pressure as multiple factors line up against it. The week began with centrist Ben Broadbent’s speech which didn’t drop any hints on what the BoE may do at their December meeting. UK GDP data was disappointing with missed expectations on a monthly time frame as well as YoY and 3-month average. Plan B restrictions have now been implemented - guidance to work from home from Monday, and an extension of face masks to most public indoor venues (public transport etc). Mandatory Covid-19 passes will now be needed for entry to places such as nightclubs and venues with large crowds. With Plan B restrictions and softer GDP data, markets are all but certain a BoE hike will not happen at next week’s meeting, opting to rather wait until February for a move. I’ll be providing a preview for this event, but we shouldn’t be getting any curve balls as expectations are widely baked in for no hike, leading to very muted reactions in GBP crosses if any. UK opinion polls have moved against Boris Johnson after the uproar caused by allegations of his rule breaking Christmas party. Labour is now ahead in a variety of polls, which hasn’t occurred for a long time. If the fallout continues the Conservative MPs may decide to trigger a vote of no confidence in him which may inject some political instability. Article 16 could be used as a deflection and distraction tactic to turn the spotlight away from himself. (Source: TradingView - Past performance is not indicative of future performance.) GBPUSD looks technically weak as it trades below the lower trend line of its descending channel. The RSI hovers just above oversold. 1.315 on the downside would be key for a move lower while 1.32.5 - 1.33 on the upside just below the 21-day EMA would be key. USDJPY: The yen continues to come under pressure as the US 10-year yield moves higher and risk sentiment leans on the positive side, reducing the need for risk-off hedges. Tensions over Russian invading Ukraine will need to be monitored though as this could see flows directed towards the yen. (Source: TradingView - Past performance is not indicative of future performance.) USDJPY continues to be bid around its 38.2% Fibonacci level and mini range support around 113.5. The 50-day SMA and 21-day EMA are bunched up right together on the price candles. The RSI edges above the 46 level of support. Targets wise, on the upside 114-114.5 will remain key while on the downside 112.5 will be important to watch. Gold: Omicron variant positive news flow is taking the allure away from gold for safe haven flows, however, rising tensions between the US and Russia is helping to offset that. Real yields have also been rising higher of late which will pressure gold as well as a stronger dollar. Gold is a tad stronger on the inflation release as traders had most likely positioned for a 7% print and this not being the case has led to some bids flowing through.  (Source: TradingView - Past performance is not indicative of future performance.) Gold remains trapped in a tight range with today's inflation data a potential catalyst for a more directional move. Price is now just above the $1775 support level. The RSI has turned back upwards, but remains in no-man's land. The important level on the upside will be $1800 just above all the key moving averages. Oil: Oil certainly saw some new hot money coming back in to drive the recent recovery up from the $68 support area. Beginning the week we saw Saudi Arabia decided to hike their selling price to Asia and the US, indicating that they believe demand will remain robust despite omicron restriction fears. So far omicron news has been positive enough not to lead to expectations of serious demand destruction. Plan B work from home guidance has probably led to some slight weakness in crude, but we’ll need to watch what airlines decided to do in the next few weeks for jet fuel demand. Official US inventory data showed a modest reduction in inventory levels, but nothing to get excited about. Iranian talks are continuing ahead with nothing of anything major to report back on (Source: TradingView - Past performance is not indicative of future performance.) Oil now between its 200-day SMA and the 21-day EMA, is looking for its next direction. Support comes in around $73.50 with the 200-dauy SMA just below there. On the upside $76 provides resistance aided by the 21-day EMA. The RSI, has turned upwards and will need to continue in that direction for bulls to be satisfied.

December 12, 2021  $USD US yields and the dollar softened after the release of the November CPI figures before the weekend.  The data were in line with expectations showing the headline rate accelerated to 6.8% and the core rate to 4.9%.  The price action likely reflected positioning rather than a reassessment of the outlook for next week's FOMC meeting.  Nearly everyone recognizes the likelihood that the pace of tapering is quickened, and the individual forecasts reflect a more aggressive tightening path than anticipated in September.  With the diverging monetary policy impulses are evident in the shifting two-year interest rate differentials in the US favor, it is increasingly expensive to resist a stronger greenback.  A critical part of the backdrop is that market participants feel more comfortable that the Omicron variant may not be as disruptive as feared in Europe and the US (where the current surge is notable in its own right). As a result, those major currencies that tend to do well when risk appetites are strong, namely the dollar bloc and Scandis, are outperforming.  At the same time, the traditional funding currencies, the yen, and Swiss franc, were out of favor.  The euro falls in the latter camp.  A return to working from home, the evaporation of speculation that the BOE would raise rates in the week ahead, and a disappointing October GDP report pinned sterling in its trough.   It is difficult to see the market getting significantly more aggressive about the next year's outlook for the Fed.  The futures market is pricing in two hikes entirely and around two-thirds of a third hike.  A similar logic has turned us more cautious about the Canadian dollar.  There the market has discounted 125 bp of hikes over the next 12-months, which seems too aggressive.   Dollar Index:  The Dollar Index has been moving broadly sideways, though it rose for the seventh consecutive week.  For the first eight sessions of December, it has traded within the range set on November 30 (~95.50-96.65).   The momentum indicators have trended lower but appear to be stabilizing near mid-range.  The next big target is slightly below 97.75, which is the high from June-July 2020, and the (61.8%) retracement target of the decline since the March 2020 high near 103.00.   Euro:  The single currency briefly traded below the November 30 low (~$1.1235) last Tuesday before short-covering lifted it to the week's high ($1.1355) the following day.  It finished the week on a firm note after wobbling initially after the US CPI report.  With a brief exception, the euro has chopped between $1.12 and $1.14 since mid-November.   The broad sideways movement has seen the momentum indicators correct from over-extended territory.  Since November 10, when the US reported the jump in CPI to 6.2%, the US 2-year premium over Germany rose by roughly 18 bp to 1.40%,  to set the year's high.  It stalled.  The consolidative phase may continue ahead of the FOMC meeting.  Given what the market is pricing in, it may be difficult for the Fed to get ahead of market expectations for next year when it meets on December 15.   Japanese Yen: After testing support near JPY112.55 to start last week, the dollar recovered to almost JPY114.00 in the middle of the week before moving sideways.  It continued to track the movement of US 10-year yields.  As yields rose in the first part of the week, the dollar traded higher against the yen, and when yields slipped min the second half of the week, so did the greenback.  The MACD has flatlined, while the Slow Stochastic is trending higher.  A break of JPY113.00 retargets the lows.  On the topside, the JPY114.00-JPY114.30 area offers nearby resistance. British Pound:  Little is going sterling way.  Support for the Prime Minister has fallen, and polls show Labour opening its largest lead in years.  It has opted for "Plan B," with people returning to working from home, though no new government support was offered.  The economic growth slowed more than expected in October, which was before the Covid wave intensified and the Omicron variant was detected.  The rate hike that looked so likely in November now seems off the table until at least February.  Meanwhile, the fishing row and the attempt to change the Northern Ireland Agreement remain unresolved but causing enough consternation to deter the US from lifting the steel and aluminum tariffs that Trump imposed, let alone discussing a free-trade agreement.  Sterling made a marginal new low for the year last week (slightly below $1.3165, which met the (38.2%) retracement objective of the rally from the March 2020 low.  The next retracement (50%) is around $1.2830.  The momentum indicators are not generating a strong signal presently.  It finished last week on a firm note but a move above $1.3300-$1.13350 is needed to signal anything important.   Canadian Dollar:  The Canadian dollar's recovery fizzled after the central bank failed to provide fresh encouragement to the market, with 125 bp of hikes priced into the swaps market over the next 12 months.  The US dollar, which had rallied and closed above CAD1.28 on December 3 despite the diverging jobs reports, fell nearly CAD1.26 before catching a good bid.  Ahead of the weekend, it had recovered to the middle of the week's range (~CAD1.2730).  A move above the CAD1.2760 area could signal another run at the highs. The MACD pulled back, but it looks like it may try turning higher, while the Slow Stochastic is still falling.  The five-day moving average is set to slip below the 20-day moving average for the first time in a month.  Canada reports November CPI figures on December 15, and the year-over-year pace is set to accelerate from the 4.7% 12-month clip seen in October.  Inflation is also likely rising even faster this month.   Australian Dollar: The Australian dollar rose almost 2.5% last week to end a five-week slide that shook a nickel from it.  The Aussie recovered from the year's low slightly below $0.7000 (December 3), the measuring objective of the potential head and shoulder pattern traced out in H1 21. However, the recovery stalled shy of $0.7190.  The initial retracement of the leg lower that began in late October was closer to $0.7210. Still, the anticipation of a strong employment report (December 15) could help underpin the Aussie.  Provided it holds above the $0.7120 area, the Australian dollar can work its way higher.  The MACD and Slow Stochastic are trending higher.   Mexican Peso: While the Australian dollar was the strongest of the major currencies, the Mexican peso led the emerging market currencies a nearly 2% gain.  Last week, Latam provided three of the four strongest emerging market currencies (Colombian peso +1.25%) and the Brazilian real (0.95%).  The Thai baht was in third place with a 1.25% gain.  Banixco meets on December 16.  It is widely expected to hike by another 25 bp.  The central bank of Chile meets on December 14 and is expected to hike 125 bp to 4.0%.  The last move in October was also for 125 bp.    The Colombian central bank meets on December 17.  Most anticipate a 50 bp hike to 3.0% after initiating the tightening cycle with a 75 bp move in October.  Mexico's central bank appears to be a laggard in this cycle, but the peso's 4.5% loss this year makes it the top performer in the region.  The US dollar fell to a new three-week low slightly below MXN20.85 before the weekend.  The momentum indicators are trending lower, and the five-day moving average crossed below the 20-day for the first time since mid-November.  Initial support is seen in the MXBN20.70-MXN20.75 band. Chinese Yuan:  Chinese officials have delivered verbal warnings and cautioned banks and businesses to adopt good foreign exchange hedging practices and avoid a one-way market.  It signaled displeasure as the yuan rose to new three-year highs against the dollar by setting the daily reference rate.  It cut reserve requirements ahead of the expected FOMC decision next week to accelerate its tapering and bring forward its first rate hike.  The PBOC also raised the reserve requirement for foreign currency deposits.  Yet, the yuan rose in all but one session last week and eked a small gain on the week.  This month, the dollar's high was set ahead of the weekend near CNY6.3835,  but the positive greenback momentum was not sustained.  The dollar finished around CNY6.3700.  In the grand scheme of things, these are small moves, yet this is where the lines are being drawn.  Some observers have argued that state-owned banks in China have operated on behalf of the central bank (stealth intervention).  If this is true,  one must ask what happened to them now or why is that channel not working?  Still, with policy divergence on the PBOC's side, the risk-reward does not seem to favor fighting it now.  If the PBOC wants to drive home its message, the dollar needs to rise above CNY6.40.  Portfolio inflows and the large trade surplus need to be offset by increased capital outflows if officials want to remove the upside pressure on the currency.  That said, if there is an escalation ladder here, officials dominate nearly every rung.  In the long game, officials cannot be seen as losing, and if the carrots do not work, the will appears to be there to use the stick.   Disclaimer

S&P 500 recaptured 4,700s on little change in market breadth and ever so slowly coming back to life HYG. Credit markets made a risk-on move, but HYG isn‘t leading the charge on a medium-term basis in the least – it‘s improving, but the stiff headwinds in bonds are being felt. Given the CPI discussed at length on Friday, it‘s still a relative success. Make no mistake though, time is running short in this topping process, and trouble is going to strike earliest after the winter Olympics. Global economic activity might be peaking here, and liquidity around the world is shrinking already – copper isn‘t too fond of that. The Fed might attempt to double the monthly pace of tapering to $30bn next, but I doubt how far they would be able to get at such a pace. Inflation and contraction in economic growth are going to be midterms‘ hot potatoes, and monetary policy change might be attempted. Tough choices for the Fed missed the boat in tapering by more than a few months. 2022 is going to be tough as we‘ll see more tapering, market-forced rate hikes (perhaps as many as 2-3 – how much closer would yield curve control get then?), higher taxes and higher oil prices. Stocks are still likely to deliver more gains in spite of all the negative divergences to bonds or other indices (hello, Russell 2000). Copper would be my indicator as to how far further we have to go before GDP growth around the world peaks. Oil is ready for strong medium-term gains, and I‘m not looking for precious metals to yield much ground. Silver though is more vulnerable unless inflation returns to the spotlight. Cryptos do likewise have issues extending gains sharply. All in all, volatility is making a return, and it isn‘t a good news for the bulls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 advance continues, and I‘m looking for ATHs to give in. It will take a while, but the balancing on a tightrope act continues. Credit Markets HYG strength didn‘t convince, but it didn‘t disappoint either – the constellation remains conducive to further stock market gains. So far and still conducive. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals are stronger than miners, and the lackluster, sideways performance is likely to continue for now – fresh Fed policy mistake is awaited, and it‘s actually bullish that gold and silver aren‘t facing more trouble when the consensus expectation is faster taper. Crude Oil Crude oil upswing is still struggligh at $72, and remains favored to go higher with passage of time as excess production capacity keeps shrinking while demand isn‘t being hit (no, the world isn‘t going the lockdowns route this time). Copper High time copper stopped hesitating, for its sideways trading is sending a signal about future GDP growth. The jury is still out in the red metal‘s long basing pattern – a battle of positive fundamentals against shrinking liquidity and possibly slowing growth. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum bottom searching goes on, and I suspect at least a test of Friday‘s lows is coming. I don‘t see too many signs of exuberance returning right away as Ethereum hasn‘t yet started to outperform. Summary S&P 500 bulls continue climbing a wall of worry even if credit markets don‘t confirm entirely. Risk-on and real assets rally is likely to continue, and the road would be getting bumpier over time. The Fed won‘t overcome market expectations, and the last week of Nov (first week of balance sheet contraction) pace wouldn‘t be consistently beaten without consequences down the road. Select commodities and precious metals are already feeling the pinch, but there is no sending them to bear markets. Get ready for the twin scourge of persistent inflation and slowdown in growth to start biting increasingly more. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  The S&P 500 index got back above the 4,700 level on Friday after gaining almost 1%. The only way is up now? For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch today's video. Nasdaq 100 Remains Close to the 16,400 Level Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index got back to the 16,400 level last week. It is the nearest important resistance level, marked by some previous local highs. Tech stocks remain relatively weaker, as the Nasdaq 100 is still well below the Nov. 22 record high of 16,764.85. Conclusion The S&P 500 index will likely slightly extend its last week’s advances this morning. However we may see a short-term profit-taking action at some point. There have been no confirmed short-term negative signals so far, and we may see an attempt at getting back to the late November record high. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 is expected to open slightly higher this morning but we may see a consolidation above the 4,700 level. Our short-position is very close a stop-loss level, and we’ll close it if it breaks above it again. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Cardano price is undergoing a retracement that will likely set the stage for a 38% run-up to $1.75. ADA needs to flip the $1.60 resistance barrier into support to reach its destination at $1.75. The transaction data and the recent uptick in average transaction size support the bullish thesis for the so-called “Ethereum killer. Cardano price has set up liquidity pools that are likely to be taken advantage of going forward. The most probable direction for ADA seems to be bullish, with on-chain metrics providing a tailwind to the claim. Cardano price to collect buy-stop liquidity Cardano price set up a double top at $1.75 on December 2 and retraced 32% to $1.13. A few days later, ADA created a double bottom at $1.13 and surged 18%. However, the recent upward correction will likely set the stage for the incoming bullishness to be sustained. A bounce off the $1.26 support level that sets up a new swing high above $1.47 will confirm the start of an uptrend. In this scenario, Cardano price will encounter the $1.60 resistance level. Flipping this barrier into a support floor will suggest that the buyers are taking control. This move will open the path for collecting the buy-stop liquidity resting above the $1.75 hurdle. In total, the climb would constitute a 38% gain. ADA/USDT 4-hour chart Supporting the bullish outlook for Cardano price is the recent uptick in the average transaction size from $23,877 to $83,704. This 250% spike in transfer size indicates that investors are interested in the price of ADA at the current levels and are actively pouring money into it. ADA average transaction size Moreover, IntoTheBlock’s Global In/Out of the Money (GIOM) model is another contributing factor to Cardano’s bullishness, and it shows that ADA will face little-to-no imminent resistance. Two significant clusters of underwater investors appear at $1.42 and $1.60. Here, roughly 381,000 and 441,000 addresses purchased nearly 4.32 billion and 5.25 billion ADA tokens, respectively. Therefore, an uptick in buying pressure that propels Cardano price into these clusters is likely to be met with selling momentum from holders trying to break even. Hence, ADA bulls need to clear these two levels to reach their destination at $1.75. ADA GIOM While things are looking good for Cardano price, there is a high chance ADA might retrace below $1.19 to collect liquidity. Investors can scoop the so-called “Ethereum killer” for a discount in this situation. However, if Cardano price produces a lower low below $1.12, it will invalidate the bullish thesis. In this case, ADA could slip down to retest the 1.02 support floor.

One swallow doesn't make a summer, but when it comes to slower inflation pressure, there have been several. Will the narrative change soon? While Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had been preaching his “transitory” doctrine for months, the thesis was obliterated once again after the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) surged by 6.8% year-over-year (YoY) on Dec. 10. Additionally, while the Commodity Producer Price Index (PPI) – which will be released on Dec. 14 – is likely provide a roadmap for inflation’s next move, signs of deceleration are already upon us.  For example, supply bottlenecks, port congestion, and rapidly rising commodity prices helped underwrite inflation’s ascent. However, with those factors now stagnant or reversing, inflationary pressures should decelerate in 2022. To explain, Deutsche Bank presented several charts that highlight 2021’s inflationary problems. However, whether it’s suppliers’ delivery times, backlogs of work, port congestion, bottleneck indices, or the cost of shipping and trucking, several inflationary indicators (excluding air cargo rates) have already peaked and rolled over.  Please see below: To that point, global manufacturing PMIs also signal a deceleration in input price pressures. With input prices leading output prices (like the headline CPI), the latter will likely showcase a similar slowdown if the former’s downtrend holds. Please see below: Source: IIF/Robin Brooks To explain, the colored lines above track the z-scores for prices paid within global manufacturing PMI reports. In a nutshell: regions were experiencing input inflation that was ~2 and ~4 standard deviations above their historical averages. However, if you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that all of them have consolidated or come down (the U.S. is in light blue). As a result, it’s another sign that peak input inflation could elicit peak output inflation. As mentioned, though, the commodity PPI is the most important indicator and if the data comes in hot on Dec. 14, all bets are off. However, the monthly weakness should be present since the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (S&P GSCI) declined by 11.2% in November.   Also noteworthy, Morgan Stanley’s Chief U.S. Economist, Ellen Zentner, also sees signs of a deceleration. She wrote: “We are seeing nascent signs that pipeline inflation pressures are easing – based on evidence from company earnings transcripts, ISM comments, Korea trade data, China's inflation data, the Fed's Beige Book, a department huddle with our equity analysts, and our own survey.” To explain, the green, gold, and blue lines above track Morgan Stanley’s core inflation estimates for emerging markets, developed markets, and global markets. If the predictions prove prescient, the 2022 inflation narrative could look a lot different than in 2021. However, please remember that inflation doesn’t abate without direct action from the Fed, and with a hawkish Fed known to upend the PMs (at least in the short- or medium run), the fundamental environment has turned against them. For example, when the Fed turns hawkish, commodities retreat, and with U.S. President Joe Biden showcasing heightened anxiety over inflation, more of the same should materialize over the medium term. To explain, Morgan Stanley initially projected no rate hikes in 2022. Now, Zentner expects “2 hikes in 2022, followed by 3 hikes plus a halt in reinvestments in 2023.” She wrote: “Before investors close out the year, we need to get past the FOMC's final meeting next week, and it comes with every opportunity for surprise. On Wednesday, we expect the Fed to move to a hawkish stance by announcing that it is doubling the pace of taper, highlighting continued inflation risks and no longer labeling high inflation as transitory, and showing a hawkish shift in the dot plot. We think this shift will shake out in a 2-hike median in 2022, followed by 3.5 hikes in 2023 and 3 hikes in 2024.” Furthermore, upping the hawkish ante, Goldman Sachs initially projected no rate hikes in 2022. Then, the team moved to three rate hikes in 2022 (June, September, and December 2022). Now, Goldman Sachs expects the FOMC to hike rates in May, July, and November 2022 – with another four hikes per year in 2023 and 2024.   The Fed’s Time to Shine “The FOMC is very likely to double the pace of tapering to $30bn per month at its December meeting next week, putting it on track to announce the last two tapers at the January FOMC meeting and to implement the last taper in March,” wrote Chief Economist Jan Hatzius. “We expect the Summary of Economic Projections to show somewhat higher inflation and lower unemployment. Our best guess is that the dots will show 2 hikes in 2022, 3 in 2023, and 4 in 2024, for a total of 9 (vs. 0.5 / 3 / 3 and a total of 6.5 in September). We think the leadership will prefer to show only 2 hikes in 2022 for now to avoid making a more dramatic change in one step, especially at a meeting when the FOMC is already doubling the taper pace. But if Powell is comfortable showing 3 hikes next year, then we would expect others to join him in a decisive shift in the dots in that direction.” Speaking of three hikes, the market-implied probability of three FOMC rate hikes in 2022 has risen to 96%. Please see below: For context, I’ve been warning for months that surging inflation would force the Fed’s hand. I wrote on Oct. 26: Originally, the Fed forecasted that it wouldn’t have to taper its asset purchases until well into 2022. However, surging inflation pulled that forecast forward. Now, the Fed forecasts that it won’t have to raise interest rates until well into 2023. However, surging inflation will likely pull that forecast forward as well. More importantly, though, while the PMs have remained upbeat in recent weeks, the forthcoming liquidity drain will likely shift the narrative over the medium term. The bottom line? While inflation shows signs of peaking, there is a vast difference between peak inflation and the Fed’s 2% annual target. As a result, even if a 6.8% YoY headline CPI was the precipice, it’s nothing to celebrate. Thus, the Fed needs to tighten monetary policy to control inflation, and anything less will likely re-accelerate the cost-push inflationary spiral.  To that point, with the precious metals extremely allergic to a hawkish Fed, I’ve highlighted on numerous occasions how the GDXJ ETF suffered following the 2013 taper. With 2022 Fed policy looking even more hawkish than in mid-2014, the latter’s downtrend should have plenty of room to run. In conclusion, the PMs were mixed on Nov. 10, and the scorching inflation print was largely ignored by investors. However, with the Fed poised to provide another dose of reality on Dec. 15, the recent volatility should persist. To that point, it’s important to remember that the S&P 500’s volatility increased materially after the Fed tapered in 2013. With stock market drawdowns bullish for the USD Index and bearish for the PMs, there are plenty of technical, fundamental, and sentiment factors brewing that favor the theme of ‘USD Index up, PMs down’ over the medium term. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

USDCHF looks for breakout The US dollar consolidates ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. The pair is grinding for support above 0.9160 after it gave up most gains from the November rally. Overall sentiment remains positive as long as price action stays above the daily support at 0.9100. The current consolidation is a sign of accumulation from the long side. A close above the immediate resistance at 0.9270 would propel the greenback to the previous peak at 0.9360. On the downside, between 0.9160 and 0.9195 lies an important demand zone. US 30 to test previous peak The Dow Jones 30 inches lower as investors look ahead to Fed’s aggressive tapering. By lifting offers around the psychological level of 36000, a major resistance on the daily chart, the bulls may have turned sentiment around. As the index falls back in search of support, the RSI’s oversold situation may catch buyers’ attention. A break above 36350 may resume the uptrend. Otherwise, 35620 is the closest support where buyers could jump in for fear of missing out. Further down, 34800 would be a second line of defense. GER 40 seeks support The Dax 40 treads water as major central banks are set to update their policies. An initial surge above 15500 has prompted the bears to cover. Then the index found support at the 38.2% (15550) Fibonacci retracement level while an oversold RSI attracted buying interest. And that is a sign of underlying strength in the rebound. A bullish MA cross indicates an acceleration on the upside. A break above 15840 may send the price to the all-time high at 16300. In case of a deeper pullback, 15300 is a critical level to keep the rebound relevant.

https://www.midastouch-consulting.com/13122021-gold-recovery-ahead December 13th, 2021: The gold market is nearing the end of a difficult and very challenging year. Most precious metal investors must have been severely disappointed. Gold – Recovery ahead. Review 2021 started quite bullish, as the gold price climbed rapidly towards US$1,960 at the beginning of the year. In retrospect, however, this peak on January 6th also represented the high for the year! In the following 11.5 months, gold did not even come close to reaching these prices again. Instead, prices came under considerable pressure and only bottomed out at the beginning and then again at the end of March around US$1,680 with a double low. Interestingly, the low on March 8th at US$1,676 did hold until today. The subsequent recovery brought gold prices back above the round mark of US$1,900 within two months. But already on June 1st, another violent wave of selling started, which pushed gold prices down by US$150 within just four weeks. Subsequently, gold bulls attempted a major recovery in the seasonally favorable early summer phase. However, they failed three times in this endeavor at the strong resistance zone around US$1,830 to US$1,835. As a result, sufficient bearish pressure had built up again, which was then unleashed in the flash crash on August 9th with a brutal sell-off within a few minutes and a renewed test of the US$1,677 mark. Despite this complete washout, gold bulls were only able to recover from this shock with difficulty. Hence, gold traded sideways mainly between US$1,760 and US$1,815 for the following three months. It was not until the beginning of November that prices quickly broke out of this tenacious sideways phase and thus also broke above the 15-month downtrend-line. This was quickly followed by another rise towards US$1,877. However, and this is quite indicative of the ongoing corrective cycle since the all-time high in August 2020, gold prices made another hard U-turn within a few days and sold off even faster than they had risen before. Since this last sell-off from US$1,877 down to US$1,762, gold has been stuck and kind of paralyzed for three weeks, primarily trading in a narrow range between US$1,775 and US$1,785. Obviously, the market seems to be waiting for the upcoming FOMC meeting. Overall, gold has not been able to do much in 2021. Most of the time it has gone sideways and did everything to confuse participants. These treacherous market phases are the very most dangerous ones. Physical investors can easily sit through such a sideways shuffling. But leveraged traders had nothing to laugh about. Either the movements in gold changed quickly and abruptly or almost nothing happened for days and sometimes even weeks while the trading ranges were shrinking. Technical Analysis: Gold in US-Dollar Weekly Chart – Bottoming out around US$1,780? Gold in US-Dollars, weekly chart as of December 13th, 2021. Source: Tradingview Despite the 15-month correction, gold has been able to easily hold above the uptrend channel, which goes back to December 2015. The steeper uptrend channel that began in the summer of 2018 is also still intact and would only be broken if prices would fall below US$1,700. Support between US$1,760 and US$1,780 has held over the last three weeks too. The weekly stochastic oscillator is currently neutral but has been slowly tightening for months. Overall, gold is currently trading right in the middle of its two Bollinger bands on the weekly chart. Thus, the setup is neutral. However, bottoming out around US$1,780 has a slightly increased probability. Daily Chart – New buying signal Gold in US-Dollars, daily chart as of December 13th, 2021. Source: Tradingview On the daily chart, gold has been searching for support around its slightly rising 200-day moving average (US$1,793) over the last three weeks. However, eye contact has been maintained, hence a recapturing of this important moving average is still quite possible. Despite the failed breakout in November, the current price action has not moved away from the downtrend-line. A further attack on this resistance thus appears likely. Encouragingly, the daily stochastic has turned up from its oversold zone and provides a new buy signal. In summary, the chances of a renewed recovery starting in the near future predominate on the daily chart. In the first step, such a bounce could run to around US$1,815. Secondly, the bulls would then have to clear the downtrend-line, which would release further upward potential towards US$1,830 and US$1,870. The very best case scenario might see gold being able to rise to the psychological number of US$1,900 in the next two to four months. On the downside however, the support between US$1,760 and US$1,780 must be held at all costs. Otherwise, the threat of further downward pressure towards US$1,720 and US$1,680 intensifies. Commitments of Traders for Gold – Recovery ahead Commitments of Traders for Gold as of December 12th, 2021. Source: Sentimentrader The commercial net short position in the gold futures market was last reported at 245,623 contracts sold short. Although the setup has somewhat improved due to the significant price decline in recent weeks, the overall constellation continues to move in neutral waters. There is still no clear contrarian bottleneck in the futures market, where professional traders should have reduced their net short positions to below 100,000 contracts at least. Until then, it would still be a long way from current levels, which could probably only happen with a price drop towards US$1,625. As long as this does not happen, any larger move up will probably have a hard time. In summary, the CoT report provides a neutral signal and thus stands in the way of a sustainable new uptrend. However, given the current futures market data, temporary recoveries over a period of about one to three months are currently possible. Sentiment for Gold – Recovery ahead Sentiment Optix for Gold as of December 12th, 2021. Source: Sentimentrader Sentiment for gold has been meandering in the neutral and not very meaningful middle zone for more than a year. Furthermore, a complete capitulation or at least very high pessimism levels are still missing to end the ongoing correction. Such a high pessimism was last seen in spring of 2019, whereupon gold was able to rise more than US$800 from the lows at US$1,265 to US$2,075 within 15 months. This means that in the big picture, sentiment analysis continues to lack total capitulation. This can only be achieved with deeply fallen prices. In the short term, however, the Optix for gold has almost reached its lows for the year. At the same time, german mainstream press is currently asking, appropriately enough, “Why doesn’t gold protect against inflation? This gives us a short-term contrarian buy signal, which should enable a recovery rally over coming one to three months. Seasonality for Gold – Recovery ahead Seasonality for Gold over the last 53-years as of December 12th, 2021. Source: Sentimentrader As so often in recent years, precious metal investors are being put to the test in the fourth quarter of 2021. In the past, however, there was almost always a final sell-off around the last FOMC meeting between mid-November and mid-December. And this was always followed by an important low and a trend reversal. This year, everything points to December 15th or 16th. Following the FOMC interest rate decision and the FOMC press conference, the start of a recovery would be extremely typical. Statistically, gold prices usually finish the last two weeks of the year with higher prices, because trading volume in the west world is very low over the holidays, while in Asia, and especially in China and India, trading is more or less normal. Also, the “tax loss selling” in mining stocks should be over by now. Overall, the seasonal component turns “very bullish” in a few days, supporting precious metal prices from mid-December onwards. Typically, January in particular is a very positive month for gold, but the favorable seasonal period lasts until the end of February. Macro update and Crack-up-Boom: US-Inflation as of November 30th, 2021. ©Holger Zschaepitz Last Friday, inflation in the U.S. was reported to have risen to 6.8% for the month of November. This is the fastest price increase since 1982, when Ronald Reagan was US president, and the US stock markets had started a new bull market after a 16-year consolidation phase. Today, by contrast, the financial markets have been on the central banks’ drip for more than a decade, if not more than two. The dependence is enormous and a turn away from the money glut is unthinkable. Nevertheless, the vast majority of market participants still allow themselves to be bluffed by the Fed and the other central banks and blindly believe the fairy tales of these clowns. The Global US-Dollar Short Squeeze However, while inflation figures worldwide are going through the roof due to the gigantic expansion of the money supply and the supply bottlenecks, the US-Dollar continues to rise at the same time. A nasty US-Dollar short squeeze has been building up since early summer. The mechanism behind this is not easy to understand and gold bugs in particular often have a hard time with it. From a global perspective, the US-Dollar is still the most important reserve currency and thus also the most important international medium of exchange as well as the most important store of value for almost all major countries. Completely independently of this, many of these countries still use their own currency domestically. International oil trade and numerous other commodities are also invoiced and settled in US-Dollar. For example, when France buys oil from Saudi Arabia, it does not pay in its own currency, EUR, but in USD. Through this mechanism, there has been a solid demand for US-Dollar practically non-stop for decades. The US-Dollar system The big risk of this “US-Dollar system”, however, is that many foreign governments and companies borrow in US-Dollar, even though most of their revenue is generated in the respective national currency. The lenders of these US-Dollar are often not even US institutions. Foreign lenders also often lend to foreign borrowers in dollars. This creates a currency risk for the borrower, a mismatch between the currency of their income and the currency of their debt. Borrowers do this because they have to pay lower interest rates for a loan in US-Dollar than in their own national currency. Sometimes dollar-denominated bonds and loans are also the only way to get liquidity at all. Thus, it is not the lender who bears the currency risk, but the borrower. In this way, the borrower is basically taking a short position against the US-Dollar, whether he wants to or not. Now, if the dollar strengthens, this becomes a disadvantage for him, because his debt increases in relation to his income in the local currency. If, on the other hand, the US-Dollar weakens, the borrower is partially relieved of debt because his debt falls in relation to his income in the local currency. Turkish lira since December 2020 as of December 13th, 2021.©Holger Zschaepitz Looking, for example, at the dramatic fall of the Turkish lira, one can well imagine the escalating flight from emerging market currencies into the US-Dollar. Since the beginning of the year, Turks have lost almost 50% of their purchasing power against the US-Dollar. A true nightmare. Other emerging market currencies such as the Argentine peso, the Thai baht or even the Hungarian forint have also come under significant pressure this year. On top, the Evergrande bankruptcy and the collapse of the real estate bubble in China may also have contributed significantly to this smoldering wildfire. All in all, the “US-Dollar short squeeze” may well continue despite a technically heavily overbought situation. Sooner or later, however, the Federal Reserve will have to react and row back again. Otherwise, the strength of the US-Dollar will suddenly threaten a deflationary implosion in worldwide stock markets and in the entire financial system. The global house of cards would not survive such shock waves. The tapering is “nearish” It is therefore highly likely that the Fed will soon postpone the so-called “tapering” and the “interest rate hikes” until further notice. To explain this, they will surely come up with some gibberish with complicated-sounding words. All in all, an end to loose monetary policy is completely unthinkable. Likewise, the supply bottlenecks will remain for the time being. This means that inflation will continue to be fueled by both monetary and scarcity factors and, on top of that, by the psychological inflationary spiral. In these crazy times, investors in all sectors will have to patiently endure temporary volatility and the accompanying sharp pullbacks. Conclusion: Gold – Recovery ahead With gold and silver, you can protect yourself well against any scenario. In the medium and long term, however, this does not necessarily mean that precious metal prices will always track inflation one-to-one and go through the roof in the coming years. Most likely, the exponential expansion of the money supply will continue and accelerate. Hence, significantly higher gold and silver prices can then be expected. If, on the other hand, the system should implode, gold and silver will be able to play out their monetary function to the fullest and one will be glad to own them when almost everything else must be written down to zero. In the bigger picture, however, gold and silver fans will have to remain patient for the time being, because the clear end of the months-long correction has not yet been sealed. Rather, the most important cycle in the gold market should deliver an important low approximately every 8 years. The last time this happened was in December 2015 at US$1,045. This means that the correction in the gold market could continue over the next one or even two years until the trend reverses and the secular bull market finally continues. In the short term, however, the chances of a recovery in the coming weeks into the new year and possibly even into spring are quite good. But it should only gradually become clearer after the Fed’s interest rate decision on Wednesday what will happen next. A rally towards US$1,815 and US$1,830 has a clearly increased probability. Beyond that, US$1,870 and in the best case even US$1,910 could possibly be reached in February or March. For this to happen, however, the bulls would have to do a lot of work. Analysis initially written and published on on December 13th, 2021, by www.celticgold.eu. Translated into English and partially updated on December 13th, 2021. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. By Florian Grummes|December 13th, 2021|Tags: Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, Gold Cot-Report, gold fundamentals, gold mining, Gold neutral, Silver, The bottom is in|0 Comments About the Author: Florian Grummes Florian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets.

Global vs US Corporate Earnings: On the topic of US vs global equities, a key reason for the extended trend of US beating global equities has been the long-term cycles in relative strength of *earnings*.   The chart below shows that US earnings have outgrown global peers substantially over the past decade. Interestingly enough it follows a previous decade of global earnings outgrowing US earnings.   Basically this lens presents a glimpse of the fundamental trends underpinning the price trends that have been fairly extensively documented.   Thus one takeaway is that this long-term cycle in fundamentals will need to turn in order to reinforce any turn in price. But also of significance is value: I would argue that the superior profitability and earnings growth of US companies is already in the price - and then some. So there is some nuance to this puzzle…Key point: US corporate earnings have outgrown global peers over the past decade.       NOTE: this post first appeared on our NEW Substack: https://topdowncharts.substack.com/       Best regards, Callum Thomas Head of Research and Founder of Topdown Charts   Follow us on: LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/company/topdown-charts Twitter http://www.twitter.com/topdowncharts

With more than a trillion-dollar market cap, bitcoin is now in an echelon where regulation would be fearful to intervene harshly, since a bitcoin crash would affect other markets. In a way, the last pillar is cemented for there to be little risk to think of a world without bitcoin. That being said, even if only minor, some bitcoin exposure is now widely accepted as a wise decision of portfolio management. We share three ways of purchase that we find conservative. We aim to demystify the saga of bitcoins acquisition risk due to its volatility. BTC in US-Dollar, Quarterly Chart, zooming out, away from the noise: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of December 14th, 2021. Risk is related to size. Suppose you buy a small enough amount alongside your overall market exposure, small enough that you can afford assets even to go to zero, then the risk is minimized. Would it be nice to have picked up a few thousand bitcoins when it was available at five dollars or a few hundred at fifty, certainly! Nevertheless, thinking long term and with volatility now being much less, the more bitcoin had settled in and is more widely accepted, even buying here now at US$47,000 is just fine. What we find less attractive is not owning any. And after that initial purchase, to add at price dips in bitcoin to grow a position size over time would be a possible extension of such a strategy. The quarterly chart above shows how bitcoin has always reached new all-time highs again, and there is no fundamental or technical evidence that this behavior should change. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, buy low and hold: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of December 14th, 2021. Another way to participate in the bitcoin market if you already have some exposure is buying in tiny increments when markets seem low. This means buying after one of bitcoin’s steep declines and add this way to your long-term exposure. The weekly chart above shows with a green box an approximated entry zone. We used ABC pattern recognition, volume profile, Fibonacci retracements, action-reaction models, and inter-market relationships along with other tools to zoom into such a low-risk and high success probability zone. Once such a zone is established, we go a time frame lower. In this case, the daily time frame, to fine-tune entries. Therefore, it increases probabilities and reduce entry risk even further. BTC in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, low-risk entries with quad exit: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of December 14th, 2021. Our third option presented is a more active way in market participation. It is refined in its form to suit more experienced traders to soothe trading psychology. In addition, it keeps entry risk to a minimum and maximizes profits. We openly share the underlying principles in our free Telegram channel. Alongside, we post real-time entries and exits for educational purposes. This approach has a sophisticated exit strategy (quad exits). It allows for partial profit-taking and expansive position size building over time to maximize one’s bitcoin exposure without added risks. The daily chart above focuses on two supply zones (yellow horizontal lines). The zones got identified by volume profile analysis (green histogram to the right side of the chart). We want the price to build a double bottom price pattern at one of these levels to enter a long position. We have already retraced from recent all-time highs in a typical percentage fashion for bitcoins trading behavior. Consequently, a turning point here is highly likely. Three ways to buy bitcoin: Overwhelm often stems from a lack of choices. After reading this chart book, we hope that those readers who feel intimidated experience a sigh of relief. Like gold, bitcoin is a store of value. We find a good likelihood that bitcoin might surpass the ten trillion gold market cap. Consequently, your investment right now has a fair chance to grow by a factor of ten or more.  After acquiring bitcoin, you can store your purchase in a small cold wallet, the size of a USB stick. Tuck it away, just like you do your precious metal coins. Buying now for the long term is still stepping in front of most market players which have succumbed to their doubts and procrastination. Consequently, it allows for this investment to be early, anticipating a likely change of the future regarding payment methods and store of value vehicles. Therefore, an asset with significant growth potential (=attractive risk/reward-ratio). Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|December 14th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|

S&P 500 gave up premarket gains, and closed on a weak note – driven by tech while value pared the intraday downswing somewhat. Market breadth still deteriorated, though – but credit markets didn‘t crater. Stocks look more cautious than bonds awaiting tomorrow‘s Fed, which is a good sign for the bulls across the paper and real assets. Sure, the ride is increasingly getting bumpy (and will get so even more over the coming weeks), but we haven‘t topped in spite of the negative shifts mentioned yesterday. The signs appear to be in place, pointing to a limited downside in the pre-FOMC positioning, but when the dust settles, more than a few markets are likely to shake off the Fed blues. I continue doubting the Fed would be able to keep delivering on its own hyped inflation fighting projections – be it in faster taper or rate raising. Crude oil is likewise just hanging in there and ready – the Fed must be aware of real economy‘s fragility, which is what Treasuries are in my view signalling with their relative serenity. We‘ve travelled a long journey from the Fed risk of letting inflation run unattented, to the Fed making a policy mistake in tightening the screws too much. For now, there‘s no evidence of the latter, of serious intentions to force that outcome. Lip service (intention to act and keep reassessing along the way) would paid to the inflation threat tomorrow, harsh words delivered, and the question is when would the markets see through that, and through the necessity to bring the punch bowl back a few short months down the road. As stated yesterday: (…) Global economic activity might be peaking here, and liquidity around the world is shrinking already – copper isn‘t too fond of that. The Fed might attempt to double the monthly pace of tapering to $30bn next, but I doubt how far they would be able to get at such a pace. Inflation and contraction in economic growth are going to be midterms‘ hot potatoes, and monetary policy change might be attempted. Tough choices for the Fed missed the boat in tapering by more than a few months. 2022 is going to be tough as we‘ll see more tapering, market-forced rate hikes (perhaps as many as 2-3 – how much closer would yield curve control get then?), higher taxes and higher oil prices. Stocks are still likely to deliver more gains in spite of all the negative divergences to bonds or other indices (hello, Russell 2000). Copper would be my indicator as to how far further we have to go before GDP growth around the world peaks. Oil is ready for strong medium-term gains, and I‘m not looking for precious metals to yield much ground. Silver though is more vulnerable unless inflation returns to the spotlight. Cryptos do likewise have issues extending gains sharply. All in all, volatility is making a return, and it isn‘t a good news for the bulls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 ran into headwinds, and fresh ATHs will really take a while to happen, but we‘re likely to get there still. Credit Markets HYG didn‘t have a really bad day – just a cautious one. Interestingly, lower yields didn‘t help tech, and that means a sectoral rebalancing in favor of value is coming, and that the current bond market strength will be sold into. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals held up fine yesterday, but some weakness into tomorrow shouldn‘t be surprising. I look for it to turn out only temporary, and not as a start of a serious downswing. Crude Oil Crude oil continues struggling at $72, but the downside looks limited – I‘m not looking for a flush into the low or mid $60s. Copper In spite of the red candle(s), copper looks to be stopping hesitating, and is readying an upswing. I look for broader participation in it, and that includes commodities and silver. The run up to tomorrow‘s announcement would be telling. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum bottom searching goes on, yesterday‘s downside target was hit, and the bulls are meekly responding today. I don‘t think the bottom is in at $46K BTC or $3700s ETH. Summary Risk-off mood is prevailing in going for tomorrow‘s FOMC – the expectations seem leaning towards making a tapering / tightening mistake. While headwinds are stiffening, we haven‘t topped yet in stocks or commodities, but the road would be getting bumpier as stated yesterday. Select commodities and precious metals are already feeling the pinch late in today‘s premarket trading, but there is no sending them to bear markets. Get ready for the twin scourge of persistent inflation and slowdown in growth to start biting increasingly more – just-in producer price index (9.6% YoY, largest ever) confirms much more inflation is in the pipeline, and the Fed would still remain behind the curve in its actions. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

The start of the Fed’s two-day meeting gave new signs of the strength of inflationary pressures in the market, adding to speculation about a tightening of the monetary policy tone. In November, the PPI index was 9.6% y/y, markedly higher than the expected 9.2% and 8.6% a month earlier. The PPI ex-energy and food accelerated to 7.7% y/y last month from 6.8% in October. The latest data shows that inflationary pressures are no longer a problem of Oil and agriculture price spikes. It has spread across the economy, forcing the Fed to step up. This bad news increased pressure on the US stock market before the opening of the regular session. However, it is positive news for the dollar, which managed to retreat from intraday lows against the euro, yen and franc. The dollar index has been consolidating in a converging triangle since late November. The latest inflation data has a high chance of pushing it beyond consolidation without waiting for the official comments from the Fed tomorrow evening.

  The inflation beast is growing stronger. Unfortunately for gold bulls, we cannot say the same about the yellow metal. Is sacrifice going on tomorrow? “Woe to you, oh earth and sea, for the Devil sends the beast with wrath, because he knows the time is short (...). Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast,” says the Bible. The current number of the beast is not 6.66%, but 6.8% - this is how high the CPI annual inflation rate was in November. The number came above expectations and implies further acceleration in inflation from 6.2% in October. It was also the largest 12-month increase since the period ending June 1982, as the chart below indicates. The latest BLS report on inflation also shows that consumer inflation rose 0.8% on a monthly basis after rising 0.9% in October. The core CPI rate increased 0.5% in November, following a 0.6-percent increase in the previous month. On an annual basis, it jumped 5% after a 4.6% increase in October (see the chart above). So, as , “hell and fire was spawned to be released”. Indeed, November readings clearly falsify central banks’ narrative about transitory inflation (which was already partially abandoned) and confirm my claim that inflation will stay with us for longer. As a reminder, my bet is that we will see the peak of inflation no earlier than somewhere in Q1 2022. Actually, it might be even a bit later, as the Omicron coronavirus variant could contribute to supply disruptions and add to inflationary pressure. What’s important here is to remember that current inflation is not merely a supply problem. It’s true that the energy index is surging, but the shelter index is also rising, and it has even surpassed the pre-pandemic level, as the chart below shows. So, inflation has a really broad nature, which makes perfect sense, as it was caused by a boost in the money supply and strong demand. The BLS report confirms this view: “The monthly all items seasonally adjusted increase was the result of broad increases in most component indexes, similar to last month.”   Implications for Gold The inflationary beast not only reared its ugly head, but it started roaring and growing stronger. The CPI inflation rate jumped to 6.8% in November, and it’s probably not the final number! Actually, it could have been even higher if the Omicron variant of coronavirus had not emerged, slowing down some expenditures. What does this acceleration imply for the gold market? Well, one week ago I wrote: “My bet is that inflation will stay elevated or that it could actually intensify further. In any case, the persistence of high inflation could trigger some worries and boost the safe-haven demand for gold.” Indeed, inflationary pressure intensified further, which pushed gold prices higher, as the chart below shows. However, I also expressed concerns about the Fed’s reaction to high inflation and its implications for gold: I’m afraid that gold bulls’ joy would be – to use a trendy word – transitory. The December FOMC meeting will be probably hawkish and will send gold prices down. Given the persistence of inflation, the Fed is likely to turn more hawkish and accelerate the pace of tapering. The higher than expected inflation rate in November, and a very modest gold’s reaction to it, only strengthen my fears that tomorrow could be a great day for monetary hawks and a sad day for gold. Given such high inflation, the Fed has simply no choice and must accelerate the pace of the tapering and hiking cycle. So, to paraphrase Iron Maiden, sacrifice is going on tomorrow. On the other hand, gold often bottomed out in December historically (in recent years, it did so in 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2019). We’ll find out soon whether my fears were justified! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

Equities 2021-12-15 10:30 Summary:  If you have tried to buy, well, basically anything, you've probably noticed that the shelves in the stores aren't as full as they used to be. With the Christmas shopping season approaching fast, there is a very real chance that Santa will have a hard time getting everyone what they want. In this article, we will look at how supply constraints will be this year's Grinch, how they will steal Christmas and how you can counteract them. It’s not news that the global supply chains are challenged, but how did it get here and what will it mean for your Christmas presents? In this article, we will look into how supply constraints came about and how they will impact Christmas shopping. “We’ve all become accustomed to the fact that when you order something online, you get it delivered within a few days. That system is broken down and we have to be much more patient now,” says Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategies at Saxo Group. Exceptional demand challenges the physical limits of the worldOne of the main drivers behind the supply constraints is a sudden imbalance between supply and demand, which is an effect of the COVID-19 breakout in the early 2020s. On one hand, a collapse of the global economy was expected, and on the other, governments across the globe started supporting both businesses and people by handing out money. The global economic collapse in large part didn’t happen and the world went into a lockdown, which meant that people suddenly had money on their hands but couldn’t travel or go to restaurants, so instead they started buying goods and commodities.“I normally tend to tell the Danish media that it all began when we got our holiday check paid out from the government, because then we all went on a spending spree. Restaurants and cinemas were closed, so we went online and went shopping for consumer goods. So, from having cancelled lots of orders, expecting a sharp decline in economic activity due to the pandemic, companies suddenly had to put in massive new amounts of orders and the system couldn't cope,” says Hansen.In a world where global activity was already historically high, an increase in demand like this puts a lot of strain on the physical parts of being able to supply people with what they want. “When you have such a big shift on the demand side, then when we talk about supply, it's about the physical world - ports, container ships, available containers - and its generally about infrastructure, which takes time to build out and thus can’t make as big a leap as the demand side, because we are talking about building big physical things,” says Peter Garnry, Head of Equity Strategies at Saxo Group. The system, which Hansen is referring to is the logistics sector, where the physical limits of the world are challenged by rapid technological development. “I think what this whole supply chain issue has shown is that everything we're talking about is basically constraints we observe in the physical world, and if there's something we have seen during this pandemic, it’s a phenomenal rally in technology stocks and companies that operate in the online world. When I travel around and talk to clients, I show this chart where you can see that since the great financial crisis, technology companies’ revenue and profits have just taken off like a rocket relative to the physical world, the normal world, the one we are in, and these supply constraints are once again teaching us that a lot of the investment opportunities will be in the online world,” says Garnry. In essence, this means that because governments feared an economic collapse, they handed out money to people and companies who then used the money to buy more goods than usual, like e.g. technological devices and gadgets, which pushed the limits of the physical ships, ports, trucks and roads. In such a situation, the last thing you would want is to clog up the system, so the pressure on the physical limits will be even tougher. Enter Ever Given.The bottleneckWinding the clock back to March this year, one of the largest container ships in the world, Ever Given, was passing through the Suez Canal, one of the world’s most important supply routes. Here it was hit by strong winds that forced the ship to turn, which resulted in the ship getting stuck across the canal. Some 400 container ships were queued up for six days, creating not only shipping delays but also further bottlenecks when the ships arrived at ports at the same time, increasing the pressure on the physical world. So now you had governments handing out money, a global population eager to buy goods, ports that are already overworked and a global trading route which is closed down, halting the usual flow of goods from East to West. A shortage of peopleIt’s probably fair to think that such bottlenecks shouldn’t take long to fix as long as everything is operating as it should. But here it’s necessary to understand two things. The first thing is that on the sea, transportation of cargo is constantly becoming bigger, but on land, this isn’t the case. “Containers ships are getting bigger and bigger, but you still need one truck to move the container to and from the harbour. So, it’s an increasing challenge that these ships roll in and need to be offloaded and loaded in a relatively short time. This has become a major obstacle, like we have seen in Felixstowe in the UK, in Los Angeles and even in Rotterdam,” Hansen says.At the same time, there’s a historic shortage of truck drivers around the globe. In the US alone, it’s estimated that 80,000 additional truck drivers are needed to handle the number of containers that could be delivered at the country’s ports. The reasons for this are many, but it’s an important factor in the supply constraints, and one that isn’t easily fixed.Generally, truck drivers have been in short supply since the mid-2000s. In addition, many economies around the world work at close to full capacity, which usually allows people with lower-paying jobs – like truckers – to move up to higher-paying and more attractive jobs, due to increased demand for workers. Also, governmental support during COVID may have provided some drivers with money they’ve been able to use to get better jobs. “You need a lot of truck drivers, which has been another issue, as there’s a shortage of truck drivers. This is mainly because some of them have found other jobs during the lockdown, where wages are rising in other industries as well, so it's difficult to find all the truck drivers needed to move all these containers. That means that you suddenly end up with a harbour full of empty containers stacking up, which takes space away from the filled ones that need to come in,” says Hansen. So, along with increased demand putting the physical world under pressure, and the blockage of an important trading route, there are also not enough people and trucks to handle the containers when ships do roll in, all adding to the delays and difficulties of moving things around the world.COVID closuresWhen trying to explain how we ended up with supply constraints, it’s impossible not to mention the COVID-19 virus, because it has had a significant impact. As previously mentioned, one reaction to the pandemic has been governmental stimulus, which has created a number of ripple effects. More concretely, COVID-19 has affected operations at ports around the globe – especially in China, one of the world’s key production hubs. “The Chinese zero-case policy on COVID-19 is making it difficult to keep supply chains efficient, because when there’s a new series of cases in China, they tend to close down pretty large parts of the particular region where the cases are happening,” says Garnry.The shortage to rule them allStruggling to ship goods around the world is a major challenge. But struggling to supply the most crucial component in today’s technology goods is arguably a much bigger issue. Semiconductors – also called integrated circuits or microchips – are used in a wide range of goods and products, including electronics. The semiconductor shortage – like the others we’ve described – has been caused by a variety of snowball effects, including bad weather in Texas, trade disputes between China and the US, and especially the COVID-19 pandemic. But this shortage is more significant, constraining sales of some of our most in-demand goods. In that sense, the semiconductor shortage is the real Grinch, which will steal the most popular Christmas presents even before they’re produced. “The semiconductor shortage is impacting everything from Nintendo to car production and PlayStations. iPhone production has also been cut by as many as 10 million units due to these constraints. So, even if you wish for it, and you want it and it's cool, you can't get it,” says Garnry.And if you’re wishing for a new car, semiconductors can also spoil the day. Car manufacturers, who buy lower margin semiconductors, were late in ordering chips after the economy didn’t collapse due to the pandemic. The semiconductor industry had already found willing buyers thanks to high demand for graphics cards for gaming and crypto, as well as chips used in data centres and computers. Car manufacturers were therefore put at the back of the line and have ever since scrambled to get priority, causing car production to be reduced due to lack of semiconductors, meaning that there are a lot of cars that are almost ready to be shipped, but can’t be because they are missing this one component,” says Garnry. Product centralisationLooking at the different reasons why supply chains have ended up in the pickle they’re in, one of them also points to a potential solution, which would be a massive shift in the production strategy that companies have pursued for a number of years. “If you're a large consumer goods company today and your main markets are the US and Europe, you must be contemplating whether you should have production closer to your end markets,” says Garnry. He adds:“Not too long ago, we had a very engaging conversation with Jens Bjørn Andersen, CEO of DSV, and we talked about this situation. In the financial industry, we always suggest that investors should make sure to  diversify their portfolio. But for whatever reason, this concept seems to have escaped the manufacturing industry when you look at their portfolio of production. Said in another way – production companies have sent huge amounts of their global production to China and that really hurts when you have disruptions like these. This could lead us to see more fragmented production and that manufacturing companies begin to diversify their supply chains. My bet is that in the future, we will see some production come back to main consumer markets in the western world.” How to un-steal Christmas from the supply GrinchWhile Garnry’s point about production closer to main markets is relevant, it’s a long-term solution that won’t help this year’s Christmas shopping. For now, we’ll just have to get used to it being more difficult to get what we want.“We need to get the balance back in terms of supply and demand. Until then, we're going to have to live with some disruptions for a number of years and that will create these temporary obstructions in various places in the world,” says Hansen. Garnry adds that the bottlenecks will solve themselves: “We will get there, but it will take some time,” he says.So, what do we do this Christmas? While the Grinch may steal your car, iPhone and PlayStation, Hansen thinks we should look at our wish list and wish for something the Grinch can’t steal – and where we can do good. “Regarding Christmas, think a bit alternatively. The global economy came back very strongly, but there was a whole area which was left in the dark and that was the service sector. So, spare a thought for them if you can't get the goods you are looking for. Wish for a gift card to the cinema or to a restaurant or to some local experience. They're not going to run out of supplies and could use it,” he says.If you want to read more about how to invest in the logistics sector during these challenges, take a look at this article. If you want to get inspiration for more investments in the logistics sector, take a look at Garnry’s theme basket here.

Over the past 24 hours, total crypto market capitalisation rose by 2.1% to $2.24 trillion, recovering to the levels at the start of the week. Yesterday, the figure was close to the $2.0 trillion mark, but demand for risk assets recovery supported cryptos, providing around a 12% rise from the bottom to peak in the following four hours. On balance, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index reclaimed another point, rising to 29. The bulls seem to be putting in the necessary minimum effort to keep the positive picture on the charts of the major cryptocurrencies. But there isn’t much more to do now. Bitcoin is up 1.2% in the last 24 hours, trading at $48.7K. The bulls managed to push BTCUSD into the area above the 200-day moving average but are not getting away from it. Etherereum is adding 3.5%, clinging to the $4K. The strong market reaction after the FOMC pushed ETHUSD above this round level, but we saw some selling pressure in the morning. Short-term traders should closely watch whether the former support has turned into resistance. The pair of major cryptocurrencies appear to have been supported by a general increase in risk appetite in the markets following the FOMC announcements. However, investors should keep in mind that this upward move in traditional financial markets was more of a “buy the rumours, sell the facts” style reaction. Fundamentally, news about the faster QE tapering and greater willingness to raise rates has already been priced in during previous weeks. But at the same time, long-term investors should not lose sight of the natural tightening of financial conditions because of these moves, which will slowly but persistently reduce demand for risky assets. The main risk for the crypto market is that we have seen a monetary regime switch in the last couple of months, which promises to take some of the demand for crypto away..

S&P 500 declined on poor PPI data, with financials virtually the only sector closing in the black. Rising yields and risk-off credit markets, that‘s the answer – markets are afraid of a more hawkish Fed than what they expect already. While the central bank will strive to project a decisive image, I‘m looking for enough leeway to be left in, and packaged in incoming data flexibility and overall uncertainty. Good for them that the fresh spending initiative hasn‘t yet passed. Still, I‘m looking for the Fed to be forced during 2022 to abruptly reverse course, and bring back the punch bowl. Treasuries look serene, and aren‘t anticipating sharply higher rates in the near term – not even inflation expectations interpreted higher PPI as a sign that inflation probably hasn‘t peaked yet. This isn‘t the first time inflation is being underestimated – and beaten down commodities (with copper bearing the brunt in today‘s premarket) reflect that likewise. Only cryptos are bucking the cautious entry to the Fed policy decision, and decreasing liquidity, in what can still turn out as a lull before another selling attempt. I think that the overly hawkish Fed expectations are misplaced, and that the risk-on assets would reverse the prior weakness – both today and in the days immediately following, which is when the real post-Fed move emerges. Odds are that it would still be up across the board. Yes, I‘m looking for the Fed speak to be interpreted as soothing – as one that would still result in market perceptions that the real bite isn‘t here yet, or doesn‘t look too real yet. Big picture is that public finances need inflation to make the debt load manageable, and that ample room to flex hawkish muscles isn‘t there (as retail data illustrate). As I wrote in yesterday‘s summary: (…) Risk-off mood is prevailing in going for tomorrow‘s FOMC – the expectations seem leaning towards making a tapering / tightening mistake. While headwinds are stiffening, we haven‘t topped yet in stocks or commodities, but the road would be getting bumpier as stated yesterday. Select commodities and precious metals are already feeling the pinch late in today‘s premarket trading, but there is no sending them to bear markets. Get ready for the twin scourge of persistent inflation and slowdown in growth to start biting increasingly more – just-in producer price index (9.6% YoY, largest ever) confirms much more inflation is in the pipeline, and the Fed would still remain behind the curve in its actions. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 had a weak day, but the dip was being bought – there is fledgling accumulation regardless of deteriorating internals, and tech selloff continuing. Credit Markets HYG even staged a late day rally – bonds are in a less panicky mood, not anticipating overly hawkish Fed message. And that‘s good for the markets that sold off a bit too much. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals downside appears limited here, and today‘s premarket downswing has been largely erased already. Much catching up to do on the upside, just waiting for the catalyst. Crude Oil Crude oil is on the defensive now – the weak session yesterday didn‘t convince me. I‘m though still looking for higher prices even as today‘s premarket took black gold below $70. Still not looking for a flush into the low or mid $60s. Copper Copper upswing didn‘t materialize, and worries about the economic outlook keep growing. The sideways trend keeps holding for now though, still. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum bottom searching goes on, yesterday‘s downside target was hit, but the bottom (at $46K BTC or $3700s ETH) might not be in just yet. Cryptos remain in wait and see mode. Summary Bears aren‘t piling in before today‘s FOMC – the Fed‘s moves will though likely be interpreted as not overly hawkish. Given more incoming signs of slowing economy, the window of opportunity to tighten, is pretty narrow anyway. Why take too serious a chance? Yes, I‘m looking for the weakness in real assets to turn out temporary, and for stocks not to be broken by inflation just yet – as argued for in the opening part of today‘s analysis. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

XAUUSD awaits breakout Gold consolidates as traders await the Fed’s monetary policy update. The metal came under pressure after it erased all gains from the November rally. Price action is stuck in a narrowing range between the daily support at 1760 and 1806. This indicates the market’s indecision. A bearish breakout would confirm the bearish MA cross on the daily chart and trigger an extended sell-off towards the floor at 1680. On the upside, a rally would send the price to retest the previous peak at 1870. GBPCAD rises towards key resistance The pound bounced back after Britain showed strong wage growth in the three months to October. A bullish RSI divergence indicated a loss of momentum in the latest sell-off. A break above 1.6770 and then a bullish MA cross were the confirmation for a reversal. The pair is heading towards the daily resistance level at 1.7100. Its breach may lead to a broader rally in the medium term. In the meantime, an overbought RSI could temporarily limit the extension. 1.6900 is the closest support in case of a pullback. USOIL seeks support Oil prices struggled after the International Energy Agency said that the omicron strain may threaten global demand. WTI crude is hovering under the 20-day moving average after the RSI briefly shot into the overbought territory. 74.10 near the 30-day moving average seems to be a tough nut to crack for now. A bullish breakout would attract momentum buyers and send the price to the daily resistance at 79.00. Otherwise, 68.00 from the latest rally is the support to keep the rebound valid.

  Stocks went lower yesterday, as investors took profits off the table ahead of today’s FOMC release. Was it a reversal or just correction? For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch   The S&P 500 index lost 0.75% on Tuesday, as it broke below its recent trading range. The broad stock market’s gauge retraced some of its rally and it got back below the 4,650 level. On the previous Friday the index fell to the local low of 4,495.12 and it was 5.24% below the Nov. 22 record high of 4,743.83. Then we saw another attempt at getting back to the all-time high and on Friday the index closed the highest in history. So was yesterday’s decline only a correction? For now, it looks like a downward correction, but we may see some more volatility following today’s FOMC release and tomorrow’s ECB and the BOE release. Today the index is expected to open virtually flat and it will likely trade within a consolidation before the Fed release at 2:00 p.m. The nearest important resistance level is now at 4,665-4,670, marked by the recent local lows and the next resistance level is at 4,700. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,610-4,630, marked by the previous Tuesday’s daily gap up of 4,612.60-4,631.97. The support level is also at 4,600. The S&P 500 is close to the early November local low, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Tech Stocks Are Relatively Weaker Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index bounced to the resistance level of 16,400. Tech stocks remain relatively weaker, as the Nasdaq 100 is closer to the early December local lows. Conclusion The S&P 500 index will likely trade within an intraday consolidation before the Fed release today. Then we may see an increased volatility in stocks, currencies and commodities. The S&P 500 index trades within a downward correction and we may see more profit-taking action in the near term. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 is expected to open virtually flat ahead of today’s FOMC release. We are maintaining our short position from the 4,678 level. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  Once inflation is set free, it never returns to the previous state. The fight requires fast thinking, but major banks still sit on the fence. On the global economic scene, major central banks still don’t really know which pedal to use - either the one to fight inflation (tapering) or the other one to keep taking their shoot of quantitative easing (money-printing) policies. Inflation, however, is like toothpaste: once you got it out, you can’t get it back in again. So, instead of squeezing the tube too strongly, both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are likely to maintain an accommodating tone this week, which could eventually benefit the price of black gold. Crude oil prices were looking for a direction to take on Tuesday, after mixed reports emerged, one rather pessimistic on global demand (published by EIA) and the other, more optimistic over sustained demand, from the OPEC group. Indeed, the first report came from the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Tuesday morning. It slightly lowered its forecast of world oil demand for 2021 and 2022, by 100,000 barrels per day on average, mainly to consider the lower use of air fuels due to new restrictions on international travel. The second one, from OPEC, stated on Monday in a more optimistic bias that the cartel has indeed maintained its forecasts for global oil demand in 2021 and 2022. It estimated that the impact of Omicron should be moderate and short-term since the world is becoming better equipped to face new variants and difficulties they may cause. Therefore, while the prospect of possible travel restrictions and new lockdowns worries investors, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported on Tuesday a drop in commercial crude reserves of 800,000 barrels last week. On the geopolitical scene, growing tensions between Russia and the West over the conflict in Ukraine are contributing to escalating gas prices, given that a third of European gas comes from Russia. WTI Crude Oil (CLF22) Futures (January contract, daily chart, logarithmic scale) Brent Crude Oil (UKOIL) CFD (daily chart, logarithmic scale) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGF22) Futures (January contract, daily chart, logarithmic scale) In summary, we can witness more volatile markets than usual for the month of December. Even though this could be accentuated by the end-of-year adjustment operations among traders, some uncertainties with central banks’ monetary policies remain and are certainly weighing on the financial markets, especially in the inflationary context. Thus, the week ahead could be an interesting one for both the black gold and the greenback. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

GBP USD EUR 15 Dec 2021 Take a read below of all the essential details to know for this event. The Bank of England are back to deliver their interest rate policy decision tomorrow at 12pm GMT. No surprises like which unfolded at the November meeting are expected to be thrown the market’s way as the consensus clearly now expects a delay to the 15bps hike. The BoE have gone from one uncertainty to the next – labour data to now omicron. The announcement of Plan B restrictions was the nail in the coffin for any moves by the BoE come Thursday. If even one of the most hawkish members of the MPC (Saunders) stated there could be advantages to waiting for more data on how the omicron variant will impact the U.K. economy before raising rates then we can expect the more dovish/neutral members to be hesitant on the rate hike front. This is quite clearly a patient committee which sees “value in waiting for additional information”. It costs them less to wait and fall temporarily behind the curve as opposed to jumping the gun too early (remember monetary policy has a lag between implementation and visible effects). At the last meeting the interest rate vote was 7-2, with Saunders and Ramsden leading the hawkish charge, however, with the latest commentary by Saunders could we see this meeting’s vote at 8-1 instead? This combined with any softening in the policy statement tone could have dovish implications for money market expectations around February’s meeting, potentially applying some pressure on GBP. Some other historical precedents provide further support for a hold at this meeting – since gaining independence the BoE has never hiked at a December meeting with Christmas round the corner as well as preferring to take policy action at meetings that coincide with monetary policy reports and press conferences. Traders focus will be shifting to February’s meeting as they try to assess whether the BoE will hike by 15bps vs 25bps or hold again. This really does depend on the damage caused by omicron over the next 2 months. The UK with their higher natural immunity and the rapid ramp up in booster jabs (41% of population 12+ and 86% of over 60 population triple jabbed) should be able to avoid harsher lockdowns like we’ve seen previously, limiting the economic impact. This is very much dependent on the number of hospitalizations and deaths (busiest time of year for the NHS in Winter as it is). Case data should have peaked by the time of the next meeting (if it follows previous trends), with the BoE having more information at their fingertips to evaluate whether economic risks (how does the labour market hold up) from omicron will be on a downward trajectory. Continuing with the medium-term outlook, the SONIA curve indicates a bank rate of around 1% by end 2022. This is quite aggressive and creates the risk of a dovish repricing in those expectations if there are any speedbumps throughout next year. This would be a headwind for sterling. Labour, Inflation & GDP data: We received the first official employment report with the distortionary effects of furlough removed. It went fairly smoothly and I think bar omicron this would have been enough for the BoE to move. Average earnings (excluding bonuses) which feeds through to wage pressures was above consensus at 4.3% vs 4% exp, the employment gains of 149k was below the 225k anticipated, however, the claimant count showed a good decrease and the unemployment rate was lower than the 4.3% expected as well as tracking below the BoE’s forecast of 4.5%. Taking into account record vacancies and these figures the labour market looks healthy and is heading in the right direction. Moving onto the price stability side of the equation. Headline and core inflation both substantially beat the market’s expectations and with core (strips out volatile items) at 4% it is now the highest reading since 1992. The surge above 5% at a headline level has arrived earlier than many economist and the Bank themselves expected. Upon closer inspection, services inflation remains weak and price pressures are still largely being driven on the energy and goods components. The concern for the BoE of higher inflation is an unanchoring of expectations and second round effects such as wages rising – this would create more persistent inflation and could prove difficult lowering it back to the 2% target within the Bank’s ideal timeframe. Looking at OIS pricing post this inflation drop it seems rate markets have got a tad ahead of themselves with pricing for a hike tomorrow now at 74%. This could actually see sterling weaken if a hold is announced. GDP data out Friday almost was flat from a MoM perspective as it creeped up by a paltry 0.1%, this is quite significantly down from the 0.6% seen in September as well as the consensus of 0.4%. This leaves the UK economy 0.5% smaller than pre-covid levels. It remains to be seen how the economy will fare going forward as restrictions could be increased as key personnel involved in these decisions produce ominous warnings - CMO Whitty warned that UK hospitals could be overwhelmed in four weeks. Given the UK’s economy is heavily skewed towards services, tighter restrictions are a definite risk to the recovery. GBPUSD: GBPUSD found a pre-meeting bid after the inflation numbers and saw price move above both the mini descending channel and back into the main descending channel. I think a good upside target is the round number 1.33 around the 21-day EMA. Above that 1.335 (white horizontal line) would be the next go to. On the downside, a break of 1.32 would be key bringing the 8 December lows of 1.316 into play. The RSI flirted with oversold and has risen 10 points to around 40. Preview (Source: TradingView - Past performance is not indicative of future performance.) EURGBP: EURGBP has failed again to show proper follow through as it breached its upper trend line and the 200-day SMA. The RSI resistance line at 65 proved again to be a useful tool in guiding the sustainability of the move. Price is now hovering just above its 50-day SMA and right on top of its 21-day EMA. Targets wise on the upside again moves into the 200-day SMA and trend line would be important (around 0.855) and then on the downside the 50-day SMA will prove important with moves below there bringing 0.845 into play. Preview (Source: TradingView - Past performance is not indicative of future performance.)

FAIRFIELD COUNTY, CONNECTICUT May 6, 2010 4:55AM The Connecticut air is cold and damp. The trader moves in silence. He steps quietly through the pitch-black darkness of his Victorian McMansion and toward the door. As he disarms the home security system, the BEEP BEEP BEEP of the keypad code he enters is impossibly loud in the quiet of the pre-dawn morning. He steps out of the house, closes and locks the door, and hops into his car. As he rolls down the driveway and into the foggy morning, he inserts a Deadmau5 CD and blasts it at high volume in an effort to wake up and get pumped for another day of trading. But this will not just be another day of trading. This will be one of the most insane trading days of his career. It has been a frustrating year so far. The Eurozone Crisis has been smoldering for months but the trader’s attempts to sell the euro have been met with massive countertrend rallies as the Fed embarks on another round of USD-negative quantitative easing (QE). They call EURUSD a collision of two garbage trucks. The trader struggles to steer clear of the wreckage. His strongest view recently has been lower USDJPY. There is risk aversion popping up all over the place as markets worry about a domino effect where Greece crashes out of the Eurozone, followed by Spain, Portugal, Ireland and then finally Italy. Everyone is bearish stocks as the S&P 500 rally from 666 in March 2009 to 1050 now is seen as a mirage; the side effect of a money printing magic trick performed by central bankers. Totally unsustainable. EURUSD opened the year at 1.4500 and now trades sub-1.25 so the short trade is hard to stomach. Even when you know it’s the right thing to do, it takes a lot of courage to sell something down >15%. So the trader has shifted his attention to USDJPY and he expects it to go substantially lower as global risk aversion remains elevated and safe haven currencies like the yen should find demand. USDJPY has been inexplicably well-bid given recent risk aversion and the Fed “money printing”. It just rallied from 90 to 94 on air over the last two weeks. Meanwhile, the best leading indicator for USDJPY is always US bond yields and they have been plummeting for a month. USDJPY looks completely wrong. The trader stares at the following chart, which shows US 10-year bond yields and USDJPY. The black bars are USDJPY and the dotted line shows US bond yields. Note they usually follow in lockstep. The divergence is a strong signal to the trader that he should be short USDJPY. USDJPY vs. US 10-year rates November 2009 to May 5, 2010 The chart covers the period up to May 5. This story takes place May 6. Chart courtesy of Refinitiv. If you look in the top right corner, you can see that USDJPY is a bit off the highs, but not much. Two days in a row, the high has been 94.99 and USDJPY is now bouncing aimlessly around 93.80 as he rolls into the hedge fund parking lot. It is still early so there are only three Porsche 911s in the lot right now. More will arrive later. This USDJPY trade has been tiring and painful as the trader got short at 94.00 with a stop loss at 95.05 and those two daily highs mean he has come within a hair (6 pips, or 0.064%) of getting stopped out, two days in a row. Holding on to a trade like this is exhausting as his fight-or-flight stress system remains activated for long stretches. Cortisol overload. Now, he can relax a bit and let things play out. His target is 91.00. Average daily range has been about 1 yen (100 pips) lately so he figures we might get there in the next week or so. 10:45 AM It has been a boring morning with USDJPY in a tight range. The sun comes out and it’s almost shorts weather outside so the trader decides to go for a run before lunch. Less than a mile into his run, he gets his first indication that this is not a random, ordinary day. His Blackberry rings. Bank sales on the line to tell him that USDJPY has just dumped 100 points in 15 minutes. Trading 92.80 now… Odd. He turns around and sprints back to the office, Spidey-sense tingling. By the time he grabs a quick shower and returns to the desk, USDJPY is 91.50. He is short $100 million USDJPY so that puts his profit (aka P&L or profit and loss) around +$2.8 million on the day. That’s more P&L than this trader typically makes in an excellent month. A huge haul. He scans the headlines and Bloomberg chats and finds no good explanation for what is going on. The stock market is down, but not enough to explain the move in USDJPY. This makes no sense. When a trade shows a big profit that makes no sense, he likes to cover it and move on. The trader buys 100 million USDJPY at 91.50. He is back to flat with no position and nearly 3 bucks of P&L in the bank. He sits there calmly and processes what has happened. He allows himself to feel happy, just for a second. He stuck to his plan and had the patience to sit with a decent-sized position for three days. He relaxes and basks in the satisfaction of a job well done. Then… Some dumb voice in his brain says: 2.8 million dollars is an amazing day. But... Maybe I can make 5 million today? And his hands, as if possessed by some mischievous or evil force, move slowly toward the BUY and SELL buttons. For no reason. And like a moron… He goes long USDJPY. First, he buys $50 million at 91.50 and then another $50 million at 91.25. These are impulsive trades with no rationale. His planned stop loss is 90.85 but before he has time to input a stop loss order, he notices S&Ps lurch lower on a huge volume surge. He puts on his headset and fires up the S&P squawk to see what’s going on. [If you want to hear the soundtrack to what happens next, Google “Flash crash stock market 2010 squawk” and select one of the YouTube replay videos] The announcer’s voice is strained as he narrates an unexplained fall in stocks from 1150 to 1120. USDJPY skips through 91.00 and the trader’s P&L shrinks to $2.0 million. He tries to sell at 90.80 and whiffs. USDJPY is suddenly in freefall. 90.10 trades. 90.00 breaks. USDJPY has just dropped more than four percent in a few hours. A monster move. The trader’s eyes flick over to his P&L which has now shrunk back to six digits. Two-thirds of three days’ work, gone in 60 seconds. And then… Stocks sell off hard out of nowhere. Like… REALLY HARD. The S&P squawk guy is losing it. Screaming. 1100 breaks in the S&P. 1080, 1070, 1060. USDJPY is a waterfall. The squawk loses his mind as he yells: “We have some BIG paper sellers here… 7 evens are trading. 6 evens are trading! 5 EVENS ARE TRADING!!! New lows here…” USDJPY breaks 89.00 and the trader has still sold only 23 million USD, leaving him stuck with a position of 77 million USD. It is a fast market, nearly impossible to transact. He picks up a phone to two different banks and neither one answers. He tries to hit the 88.60 and gets a reject notice from the aggregator. The price feed is stale and crossed now; it shows 89.00 / 88.10, which is not possible. The trader is now down on the day. In the red. His face is hot and feels red like his P&L. Urge to slam fist on desk is rising. The trader feels like he is falling, falling::::::::::::::::::::in cinematic slow-mo. USDJPY stabilizes a bit even as the S&P squawk continues to go nuts. “65 even offered! 60 trades… 60 even bid, this is the widest we have seen in years,” his voice cracks, he’s yelling like the announcer at Churchill Downs as the horses turn for the stretch. “60s trading! 50s trading! 50 at 70 now! We are twenty wide!” 1060 trades in S&Ps now, down just about 10% today, on zero news. Nobody knows what the hell is going on and there is panic in the air. The squawk dude continues to scream. He is pouring gasoline on the trader’s agitation. The trader’s P&L is now six figures in the red. Sadness. Anger. He is furious with himself because he had the right trade, waited patiently for almost three days for it to work, caught the move perfectly according to plan … And then flipped the other way on a whim, for no reason and gave everything and more back in half an hour. $2.8 million is a good month for this trader. He just made and lost that much in less than two hours. I am an idiot. How did I get into this mess? He needs to make a decision here and quick but he realizes that he is flooded. It is impossible to make a good trading decision when you’re flooded. He needs a second to clear his mind. He tears off the headphones, drops them on his desk, and stands up. He walks over to the window and tries to find a moment of lucid calm. He has been through these emotional storms before and knows how to get back to shore. He stares over the waters of the Long Island Sound. Gradually, his heart rate lowers. Clarity slowly, slowwwwly returns. His lizard brain retreats and his rational mind takes over. He talks to himself: It doesn’t matter how you got here. What are you going to do about it? 88.00 was the low in March. It’s a massive level. The panic is fading. USDJPY is down 700 points in two days and now bonds are reversing lower. This is the place to buy USDJPY, not sell. He returns to his keyboard, puts his headphones back on. The squawk guy has stopped screaming. He is noticeably more composed. S&P futures have bottomed within a whisker of limit down. They are stable but have not rebounded significantly. The bid/offer is super wide so it’s hard to tell whether they are moving higher or just bouncing along the bottom. The trader looks around the room and sees the panic and electricity levels have dropped. Not as many phones are ringing. Voices in the room are no longer frantic. He buys 50 million USDJPY at 88.85. And another 73 million at 88.95. Max long now, long $200 million USDJPY. But this time it’s thought out, not random, and he feels good about what he is doing. He feels confident but fully in control. He calmly thinks forward: USDJPY could easily rally to 92.50 from here. When you catch a turn like this, you can be greedy. He leaves a stop loss for half his position (sell 100 million USDJPY at 87.94) and then sits back to let things play out. He has his plan and now he knows all he can do is watch and see if it works. There is one more frenetic whipsaw and USDJPY briefly prints to a low of 87.95. One pip from his 100 million USD stop loss. Amazing luck. Seconds later, stocks stabilize, and then it’s like everyone realizes all at once that whatever the heck just happened… It’s over. USDJPY is paid at 88.70, then up through 89.50. It breaks 90.00 and as it hits 90.40, the trader flicks his eyes to the P&L. It is almost exactly back to the level where it peaked earlier: $2.8 million. He praises the trading gods and squares up. NICE! Too bad he didn’t stick with his plan on the way back up, either. A few hours later, USDJPY hit the trader’s original target of 92.50. Here’s the chart of USDJPY that day: USDJPY May 3-7, 2010 (US stock market Flash Crash was May 6) The trader made a multitude of both good and bad decisions in the three hours around the 2010 Flash Crash. The trading described in this story is a microcosm of everything that can go right and wrong in trading. Traders make good, careful decisions and get rewarded, they make bad decisions and get punished … but then sometimes a good decision leads to a bad outcome … or a bad decision is rescued by good luck. Every trader is a steaming hot bowl of bias stew and must maintain self-awareness and lucidity behind the screens as the trading day oscillates between boredom and terror. That story of the 2010 Flash Crash, just like this book, is all about the razor thin line that separates success and failure in trading. Alpha Trader is written to help you understand markets but also, more importantly, to help you better understand yourself as a trader. It is about great decisions and dumb mistakes. It is about how to be rational and why smart people do stupid things. All the time. The book is written for traders at every skill level. I wrote it to be understood by noobs, but I also aimed to write something that will resonate with experienced trading professionals. Alpha Traders are smart, rational, disciplined, flexible, patient, and aggressive… They have the endurance to handle unending ups, downs, hills, and valleys. They come in fired up each day to solve the ultimate puzzle and they get paid incredibly well if they succeed. Alpha Traders work hard (even when they don’t feel like it), seek to continuously improve, and love markets more than they love money. Thank you for taking the time to read my book. I hope you find it entertaining and useful. I hope it helps you unlock your maximum trading potential. By the way, I plan to publish future updates, fresh trading stories and new lessons, tactics and strategies, exclusively for readers of Alpha Trader. If you are interested, please sign up at brentdonnelly.com. Enjoy. /Brent

S&P 500 with pretty much everything else surged as the Fed didn‘t turn too hawkish. Predictably. The day of reckoning is again postponed as the central bank effectively kicked the can down the road by not getting ahead of inflation. Taper done by Mar 2022, and three rate hikes then, doesn‘t cut it. This illustrates my doubts about serious inflation figures to still keep hitting (hello latest PPI), and above all, their ability to execute this 1-year plan. If you look under the hood, they don‘t even expect GDP to materially slow down – 4.0% growth in 2022 with three hikes against 3.8% actual in Q3 2021 on no hikes. Something doesn‘t add up, and just as the Bank of England raising rates to 0.25% now, the Fed would be forced to hastily retreat from the just projected course.Yesterday‘s expectations panned out to the letter:(…) Still, I‘m looking for the Fed to be forced during 2022 to abruptly reverse course, and bring back the punch bowl. Treasuries look serene, and aren‘t anticipating sharply higher rates in the near term – not even inflation expectations interpreted higher PPI as a sign that inflation probably hasn‘t peaked yet. This isn‘t the first time inflation is being underestimated – and beaten down commodities (with copper bearing the brunt in today‘s premarket) reflect that likewise. Only cryptos are bucking the cautious entry to the Fed policy decision, and decreasing liquidity, in what can still turn out as a lull before another selling attempt.I think that the overly hawkish Fed expectations are misplaced, and that the risk-on assets would reverse the prior weakness – both today and in the days immediately following, which is when the real post-Fed move emerges. Odds are that it would still be up across the board. Yes, I‘m looking for the Fed speak to be interpreted as soothing – as one that would still result in market perceptions that the real bite isn‘t here yet, or doesn‘t look too real yet. Big picture is that public finances need inflation to make the debt load manageable, and that ample room to flex hawkish muscles isn‘t there (as retail data illustrate).Markets are interpreting yesterday as the punch bowl effectively remaining in place, and crucially, copper is participating after the preceding weakness. The metal with PhD in economics has been hesitating due to the darkening real economy prospects even though manufacturing data aren‘t a disaster. Consumer sentiment isn‘t though positive, and inflation expectations among the people aren‘t retreating as much as bond spreads would show. The red metals is balancing out the economic prospects in favor of participating in the renewed rush into commodities – the super (let alone secular) bull run isn‘t over by a long shot. Stockpiles are tight, and whatever the odds of the infrastructure bill being passed any time soon, copper isn‘t budging. That‘s great for real assets across the board.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 reversal is to be trusted, and the advance was very solidly taken part in. With not too much willing sellers, the advance will likely moderate today, but still continue. The bull hasn‘t topped, has been my thesis for weeks.Credit MarketsHYG celebrations are ushering in the next risk-on phase – credit markets are confirming. The too hawkish Fed worry is in the rear view mirror, and many assets can run once again, the time is still right.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals downside was indeed limited, and the solid upswing I called for, materialized. Now, let‘s wait for the reaction of this catalyst with more inflation, for the juiciest results...Crude OilCrude oil is once again readying the upswing – the conditions are in place for $72 to give in shortly. Similarly, oil stocks haven‘t peaked, and are merely consolidating.CopperKey vote of confidence is coming today from copper – the red metal would very willingly participate in a fresh commodities upswing. It‘s been ushered in already, actually.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum look to have found the bottom as well – what kind of corrective pullback would we get? I‘m not looking for one overly deep and testing yesterday‘s lows.SummaryBears have thrown in the towel, and rightfully so – another instance of the Fed crushing the puts. Being between a rock and a hard place, with midterms approaching, infrastructure bill birthing troubles, the central bank‘s room to act isn‘t really too large. FOMC has met market expectations, and still remained behind the curve on inflation. On top, I‘m looking for them to have to reverse course during 2022 – I‘ve argued the case macroeconomically in the opening part of today‘s report. Back to the inflation trades – long live real assets and the not yet having topped S&P 500 (don‘t look at me, Russell 2000)!Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Bitcoin bulls consolidate above $48.760 and will be looking to test and break $50,020 to the upside. Ethereum has bulls banging on the door at $4,060, ready for a breakout towards $4,465. XRP sees buying volume picking up, as a return to $1.0 is in the making. Bitcoin price is seeing a lift in price action as supportive tailwinds emerge following a dovishly perceived US central bank decision, with investors buying cryptocurrencies across the board. Ethereum is seeing the same interest this morning, with buying volume picking up as the RSI nudges higher. Ripple is undergoing a tight squeeze against $0.84, with bulls pushing to break the downtrend and rally up to $1.0. Bitcoin price sees investors buying any offer insight as buying volume picks up Bitcoin (BTC) price is seeing a positive lift in sentiment as a backdraught emerges after a perceived dovish central bank decision from Jerome Powell and the US Federal Reserve. This morning, investors are taking a stake in risky assets with equities and cryptocurrencies on the front foot. With that, expect Bitcoin to rally on this sentiment throughout the trading day. BTC price will quickly face a critical hurdle at $50,020 with the psychological $50,000 level included and the S1 monthly support level. This trifecta will weigh on any possible upside potential. But as markets are rallying with risk-on across the board, expect this level to break sooner rather than later, with an intraday target towards $53,350. BTC/USD daily chart Investors should expect positive sentiment to be a major theme throughout the day. Two further major central banks are scheduled to announce their decisions today, however, the Bank of England and the ECB, and there is a risk these could cast a shadow on the current Christmas rally.. If one of these delivers a message that would break current sentiment, expect a quick nosedive correction in BTC back towards $44,088 or $43,030 in a quick rewind of the rally. Ethereum price sees bulls fighting bears at $4,060, ready for a landslide victory Ethereum (ETH) price made a perfect bounce off $3,687 on Wednesday, with investors pushing ETH price towards $4,060 around the monthly S1 support level and a pivotal historical chart level. As price opens again around the same level this morning, elevated buying from investors is putting bears under pressure to close their shorts, switch sides and join the buying camp. When this happens, expect a significant spike in buying volume with a quick break above $4,060 and a continuation towards the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,332. ETH price is just around $130 away from the monthly pivot level and a second technical element in the same area. Expect the rally to halt around that level as some short-term profit-taking will happen, and the price could fade a little back towards the 55-day SMA. Should current sentiment persist, with tailwinds in equities and cryptocurrencies, expect ETH price action to hit $4,646 by the end of the week, with new all-time highs in sight by next week. ETH/USD daily chart With the end of the year approaching rapidly, expect the volume to die down a bit, which could cause some sharp corrections as sellers will not always be there to match the profit-taking from investors. This could result in possible knee-jerk reactions with ETH price tanking in a matter of minutes. Expect with that, the $3,687 and $3,391 levels to be there as safeguards. Ethereum price must reclaim $4,000 to reignite ETH bull market XRP price sees investors coming in with breakout towards $1.05 Ripple (XRP) price sees investors returning as favorable tailwinds in cryptocurrencies are filtering through into XRP price action. Bulls opened the price this morning close to $0.84, and an initial resistance level is just above at $0.88. Expect a bit of a hesitant start because of this double belt of resistance. Once punched through, expect hesitant investors to pull the trigger and join the rally to move higher towards $0.95 at the 200-day SMA. XRP/USD daily chart Assuming a break above the 200-day SMA, expect a quick pop towards $1.05, but once hit, a quick fade will likely happen, with price action falling back towards $0.99. Should, however, these tailwinds start to fade as quickly as they come, expect a quick return to the downside with a push down on $0.78 and a break lower towards $0.62, with the blue descending trend line and the S2 at $0.58 as supporting factors. XRP price shows signs of incoming breakout

The cryptocurrency market capitalisation fell 1.2% over the past 24 hours to $2.21 trillion. The cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index reacted rather sharply, losing 6 points to 23 and slipping back into extreme fear territory, remaining in the lower half of the scale for over a month.Among the top coins, Solana (+3%) and Tera (+6%) fared best, while Polkadot (-3.8%) Cardano (-3%) fared worst. Bitcoin, which is sensitive to demand from US tech stocks, has lost more than 2% in the past 24 hours to $47.5K. Its rate continues to walk around the 200-day average, reflecting either indecision or a balance of power between buyers and sellers. At the same time, this line itself has reversed downwards, and the RSI on the daily charts remains near the oversold area. Both of these indicators point to a possible failure of the price shortly. A bearish scenario could bring bitcoin back to 40K or even 30K fairly quickly if we see another episode of margin liquidation. Large long-term buyers are unlikely to return before the price drops to $20K. Further evidence that the bears own the initiative in cryptocurrencies - ETHUSD is holding below $4000, confirming the shift from a rising to a downtrend in the last month. Should the sell-off intensify, potential buyers of Ether should look to $3350. The rally started from this level in early October, and now the 200-day moving average is near this mark. A break below it runs the risk of a buyers’ capitulation and would quickly land the rate at $2700. A longer-term bearish target is seen in the $1300-1700 area, where long-term buyers are expected. The realisation of such a bearish scenario would return capitalisation to the $1 trillion area for the entire crypto market. This would be a slightly lesser failure than the top two currencies, as we believe that long-term investors are still looking for other projects outside of the two oldest currencies.Market Analyst live on the youtube channel.

Part II Let's continue to explore the past 20 years of US Fed actions. I believe the US Fed has created a global expansion of both economies and debts/liabilities that may become somewhat painful for foreign nations – and possibly the US. Reading The Data & What To Expect in 2022 And Beyond In the first part of this research article, I highlighted the past 25 years of US Fed actions related to the DOT COM bubble, the 9/11 terrorist attack, the 2008-09 US Housing/Credit crisis, and the recent COVID-19 virus event. Each time, the US Federal reserve had attempted to raise interest rates before these crisis events – only to be forced to lower interest rates as the US economy contracted with each unique disruption. The US Fed was taking what it believed were necessary steps to protect the US economy and support the global economy into a recovery period. Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! The following few charts highlight the results of the US Fed's actions to keep interest rates extremely low for most of the past 20 years. I want to highlight what I believe is an excessive credit/debt growth process that has taken place throughout most of the developing world (China, Asia, Africa, Europe, South America, and other nations). At the same time, the US has struggled to regain a functioning growth-based economy absent of US Federal Reserve ZERO interest policies and stimulus. Extreme Growth Of World Debt (excluding the US) This Rest Of The World; Debt Securities & Loans; Liabilities chart highlights the extreme, almost parabolic, growth in debt and liabilities that have accumulated since 2005-06. If you look closely at this chart, the real increase in debt and leverage related to global growth started to trend higher in 2004-05. During this time, the US housing market was on fire, which likely pushed foreign investors and foreign housing markets to take advantage of this growing trend in US and foreign real estate. This rally in speculative investments, infrastructure, and personal/corporate debt created a huge liability issue throughout many developing nations. Personal and Corporate debt levels are at their highest levels in decades. A recent Reuters article suggests global debt levels have risen in tandem with real estate price levels and is closing in on $300 Trillion in total debt. (Source: fred.stlouisfed.org) GDP Implicit Price Deflator Rallies To Levels Not Seen Since 1982~83 The rally in the US markets and the incredible rise of inflation over the past 24 months have moved the consumer price levels higher faster than anything we've seen over the past 50+ years. We've only seen price levels rise at this pace in the 1970s and the early 1980s. These periods reflected a stagflation-like economic period, shortly after the US Fed ended the Gold Standard. This was also a time when the US Federal Reserve moved the Fed Funds Rate up into the 12% to 16% range to combat inflationary trends. If the GDP Implicit Price Deflator moves above 5.5% over the next few months, the US Fed may be forced to take stronger action to combat these pricing issues and inflationary trends. They have to be cautious not to burst the growth phase of the markets in the process – which could lead to a very large deflationary/deleveraging price trend. (Source: fred.stlouisfed.org) We need to focus on how the markets are reacting to these extreme debt/liability trends and extreme price trends. The markets have a natural way of addressing imbalances in supply/demand/pricing functions. The COVID-19 virus event certainly amplified many of these issues throughout the globe by disrupting labor, supply, shipping, and manufacturing for a little more than 12+ months. The future decisions of the US Federal Reserve will either lead to a much more orderly deleveraging/devaluation process for the US and global markets – supporting the natural economic functions that help to process and remove these excesses. Or, the US Federal Reserve will push interest rates too high, too fast, and topple the fragile balance that is struggling to process the excesses throughout the global markets. What does this mean? I believe this data, and all the charts I've shared with you in this research article, suggest the US Fed is trapped in a very strenuous position right now. I'll share more information with you regarding my predictions for December 2021 and 2022 in the third part of this article. I will also share my proprietary Fed Rate Modeling System's results in Part III of this article and tell you what I expect from the US Federal Reserve and US stock markets. WANT TO LEARN MORE ABOUT HOW I TRADE AND INVEST IN THE MARKETS? Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals. If you need technically proven trading and investing strategies using ETFs to profit during market rallies and to avoid/profit from market declines, be sure to join me at TEP – Total ETF Portfolio. Have a great day! Chris VermeulenChief Market Strategist

S&P 500 made intraday ATHs, but the upswing was sold into heavily – pre-FOMC positioning raising its head? Bonds didn‘t crater, and the risk-off move wasn‘t all too pronounced. Tech weakness was the key culprit, with value barely hanging onto opening gains. Russell 2000 breaking below its Wednesday‘s open nicely illustrates how late in the topping process we are. What is needed for the upswing to go on, is tech leading the daily charge once again – and it remains to be seen for how long and to what degree would value be able to participate. I‘m taking today‘s S&P 500 weakness as squaring the prior quick long gains, which felt practically as a short squeeze. Now, we‘re working through the faster taper impact, not having shaken the news off yet. We‘re though getting there, if precious metals seeing through the fresh policy move inadequacy, and commodities likewise, are any clue. As I wrote yesterday: (…) pretty much everything else surged as the Fed didn‘t turn too hawkish. Predictably. The day of reckoning is again postponed as the central bank effectively kicked the can down the road by not getting ahead of inflation. Taper done by Mar 2022, and three rate hikes then, doesn‘t cut it. This illustrates my doubts about serious inflation figures to still keep hitting (hello latest PPI), and above all, their ability to execute this 1-year plan. If you look under the hood, they don‘t even expect GDP to materially slow down – 4.0% growth in 2022 with three hikes against 3.8% actual in Q3 2021 on no hikes. Something doesn‘t add up, and just as the Bank of England raising rates to 0.25% now, the Fed would be forced to hastily retreat from the just projected course. Markets are interpreting yesterday as the punch bowl effectively remaining in place, and crucially, copper is participating after the preceding weakness. The metal with PhD in economics has been hesitating due to the darkening real economy prospects even though manufacturing data aren‘t a disaster. Consumer sentiment isn‘t though positive, and inflation expectations among the people aren‘t retreating as much as bond spreads would show. The red metals is balancing out the economic prospects in favor of participating in the renewed rush into commodities – the super (let alone secular) bull run isn‘t over by a long shot. Stockpiles are tight, and whatever the odds of the infrastructure bill being passed any time soon, copper isn‘t budging. That‘s great for real assets across the board. The reason I quoted the above copper part, is the importance of its yesterday‘s move – not too hot, not too cold in pursuing the broader commodities. Keeping above $4.28 with ease today, would be an important signal that the bears aren‘t able to step in convincingly, including in stocks. Oil would sort itself out above $71 while gold and silver would extend their preceding gains today. All in all, stocks would join early next week, and apart from bonds not going more risk-off, Ethereum outperformance would be another confirmation of a broader risk-on upswing to happen. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 downside reversal isn‘t to be trusted on a medium-term basis – but the downswing hasn‘t run its course, looking at volume. Good Nasdaq showing is sorely missing. Credit Markets HYG retreat while the quality debt instruments stayed more or less flat, is concerning for today – and for Monday, should we get follow through in bonds later on. Given the volume comparison, it‘s not certain in the least, which would set up conditions for a broader rally early next week. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals downside is clearly over, and a fresh upswing well underway. Correction in equities is marginally helping, and the reaction of Fed‘s underwhelming move with more inflation news, would be the juiciest catalyst. Crude Oil Crude oil is building up the springboard once again – the current consolidation including in oil stocks, would be resolved to the upside next week. We haven‘t seen a genuine trend change in Nov. Copper Key vote of confidence has come from copper – more willing participation from the red metal is called for next (as a minimum, not losing momentum vs. CRB Index). Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum haven‘t kept Wednesday‘s gains, and could very well provide an early sign of buying appetite more broadly returning. Summary Bonds remain in wait and see mode, and aren‘t as bearishly positioned as stocks at the moment. Neither are precious metals or commodities, raising the odds of a bullish resolution to the S&P 500 rally that‘s been faded. The usual constellation is what‘s required – recovering bonds taking the pressure off tech, mainly. Ideally accompanied by solid HYG outperformance, value rising, copper extending gains, and Ethereum doing better than Bitcoin. Tall order, especially for today – but nothing unsurmountable for say Monday-Tuesday as argued for in detail in today‘s report. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

EURUSD re-tested 1.12 level. EURUSD was last traded at 1.12 level in 24th Nov 2021, before buyers quickly pushed the price back to above 1.13 within just 2 trading days, and since then the price remained consolidating between 1.1250 – 1.1350 for the past 15 trading days. In this weekly chart perspective the divergence is too obvious to ignore as RSI signaling oversold since EURUSD broke below 1.13 level in early November 2021. Despite the uncertainty from a macro-economic point of view, there are chances for 1.14 level to be the next bulls target, as long as sellers do not break below 1.12 level. AUDUSD re-tested 0.71 weekly engulf. Following the rise of Iron Ore in mid-November 2021, it has become a huge favor for the Aussie dollar to make a significant upside push just right after sellers reached 0.70 level, which then becomes the Q4 new low. Now buyers that has clear the 0.71 level which will expose 0.72 - 0.73 as the next bull target. However, this will be a tough job for buyers as both 100-200 weekly moving averages act as a strong resistance level, even though last week buyers managed to reach 0.72. After that the price quickly lowered toward weekly engulf neckline before the US session closed. Weekly engulf can be a good area to watch for buyers to look for upside continuation for the week ahead.

Two weeks ago, we posted the following chart in our weekly silver chart book release, after representing a strong case for a bullish silver play: Silver in US-Dollar, Weekly chart from December 3rd, 2021: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of December 3rd, 2021. We wrote at the time: “The weekly chart above illustrates that as much as we have entered the “shopping zone” for silver. There is a probability that we might see a quick spike down as we have seen at the end of September.” Weekly chart, Silver in US-Dollar, creating silver wealth without fear: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of December 18th, 2021. We were spot on anticipating how the market would unfold in the future. Furthermore, we followed the principles of consistent analysis of our surroundings, the market, and ourselves. We advanced confidently in the direction of likely probabilities and tried to keep doubt to a minimum. Hourly chart, Silver in US-Dollar, well positioned: Silver in US-Dollar, hourly chart as of December 18th, 2021. This sequence allowed for a low-risk entry on December 15th, 2021 right at the lows. The entry-level of US$21.47 already allowed for a 2.75% partial profit-taking on half of our position size at US$22.06. As always, we use our low-risk quad exit strategy to reduce risk and, as such, fear of losing profits. Now we are well-positioned with the remainder of the position, and a stop raised to break even entry levels. Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart, worth the effort: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of December 18th, 2021. The monthly chart above shows our planned following two targets for this trade. With an entry at US$21.47 and an initial tight stop at US$21.22, our risk/reward-ratio towards our first profit-taking target was about 1:2.37. Now for the next target at US$27.35, it is 1:23, and for the final target at US$47.20, it is 1:103. In other words, with extensive planning and stacking of odds, we were able to identify a trade that had about a percent of risk at entry time. In addition, we quickly mitigated risk by early partial profit-taking. And yet, we still have a profit potential of the final 25% of position size, possibly maturing to a 120% profit. Taking only highly likely and highly profitable trades like these is also confidence-building and a fear eliminator. Creating silver wealth without fear: Michael Jordan’s achievement of playing in the present moment only is nothing short of the accomplishment of monks and so-called enlightened beings. It takes a long stretch of a career to achieve such a skill set. It illustrates that trading is more than just pushing a button or extracting a mathematical edge system. Trading is psychology and requires many skill sets combined to produce the necessary consistency to overcome the dilemma that you are only as good as your last action. Luck alone will get you nowhere in this game. It is not our intention to discourage you. Instead, it is quite the opposite. Often trading can be overwhelming and at times one can be down thinking: „Why can’t I do this, why did I betray my own rules again?” Trading is hard, it takes screen time and skill. Do not let fear and doubt dictate your actions. You can do this! Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|December 19th, 2021|Tags: bottoming pattern, Crack-Up-Boom, Gold, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, The bottom is in, time frame, trading principles|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie --- 631st Edition --- Monte-Carlo --- 18 December 2021 (published each Saturday) --- www.deMeadville.com 'Twas a week of hope for the precious metals, Gold therein rising low-to-high from 1753 to 1816 (+3.6%) and Silver per same from 21.41 to 22.69 (+6.0%). But given Gold is never really supposed to stray too far from the 1780s, let alone Silver be allowed to do anything material but decline, both precious metals eked out immaterial weekly gains. Gold settled yesterday (Friday) at 1799, +0.9% net for the week, and Silver at 22.36, +0.7% net. Indeed a net snoozer of a week: â–  Even as the Swiss Franc saw its linear regression trend (21-day basis) rotate further to positive... â–  Even as the Bond's price moved to a two-week high... â–  Even as the S&P's MoneyFlow for the week values the Index 120 points lower than 'tis... â–  Even (more broadly) as the U.S. money supply since March 2020 has averaged an increase of $1 trillion every 93 trading days... â–  Even as the Federal Reserve again alerted the world that 'tis preparing to raise rates; (they can't be outdone by the Bank of England having just so done, even as the European Central Bank remains hand-wringing): we're actually thinking the Fed terminates the tapering and pulls the trigger in its 26 January Policy Statement... "Sorry folks, but we had to do it, else your stick of butter is gonna cost ten bucks." BOOM! And with respect to the latter, as you regular readers well know, the increasing of FedFunds rates was very precious metals-positive during 2004-to-2006 and on balance Gold-positive from 2015-to-2018. Yes even as we've all these historically very Gold-positive events in play, 'tis low that the precious metals continue to lay. "Well mmb, the dollar refuses to die..." Duly noted there, Squire. As we've been saying, market dislocations are the "in thing" these days. Fundamentals have been flushed down the loo, but at least we've quantitative and technical analysis to see us through. For again we quip -- even as goofball-wacko as market correlations have become -- prices are never wrong, their ebbing and flowing still in play, which for the trader we hope leads the correct way: "Don't dare think, else you'll sink!" (That of course courtesy of "The Trend is Your Friend Dept."). Either way, these are extraordinarily challenging trading days! Did you know that the EDTR ("expected daily trading range") of the S&P 500 right now is 67 points? The average annual trading range of the S&P from 1993-1995 was 47 points per year with an average annual percentage tracing of 11%: this year the S&P is tracing a range that averages better than 5% per month! Again analogous to a snake in its death throes. And yet the precious metals remain a disappointment, (save to "The M Word" crowd). Recall "Gold Forecast High Goes Bye-Bye" penned back on 02 October per nixing our 2401 price forecast high for this year: "...The more likely scenario shall well be Gold just sloshing around into year-end, trading during Q4 between 1668-1849..." We'd hoped to have been wrong about that, but with just two weeks to run in 2021, 'tis exactly what's happened. Indeed you can see it "happening" (or better stated "not happening") here across Gold's weekly bars from a year ago-to-date. A snoozer indeed, be it this past week or past year, the current parabolic Long trend (blue dots) completely bereft of price actually rising: And as an added holiday treat (hardly), here is our like (rarely posted) graphic for Silver, unable to maintain her short-lived parabolic Long trend, indeed now Short (red dots). Rather, a truly tarnished treat, one has to say, her appearing none too festive: But as crooned Neil Young back in '70 "Don't let it bring you down..."as we've a ray of technical hope for Gold into year-end; ('course, fundamental hope for Gold springs eternal). This next chart displays Gold by the day from mid-year-to-date. In the graphic's lower panel is a favoured technical study of the trading community, the mouthful MACD ("moving average convergence divergence"). Of interest is the MACD having just confirmed a crossing to positive. And whilst hindsight isn't future-perfect, it is a useful predictor in forming a reasonable near-term target for Gold, as follows. This is Gold's 13th positive MACD crossover since 26 March 2020. The "average maximum" price follow-through of the prior 12 positive crossovers is +87 points within an average signal duration of 27 trading days, (essentially within five weeks). Thus from the confirmation price of 1799, an average 87-point rise would put Gold at 1886; (more conservatively, the "median maximum" price follow-through across those 12 prior occurrences is +57 points, which if met on this run would find Gold at 1856). So with no formidably recent structural overhead resistance -- plus Gold's penchant to have put in positive Decembers in four of the past five years -- a run up to test the denoted 16 November high of 1880 makes some sense, prudent cash management, as always, taking precedence: 'Course, the biggest "positive" (if you will) of the week was the aforementioned Old Lady of Threadneedle Street raising her benchmark interest rate by 150% from 0.10% to 0.25%. (Dare the 1st Earl of Halifax -- one Charles Montagu, who in 1694 devised establishing William Paterson's 1691 proposal for creating the BOE -- flip his wig). Meanwhile across the channel, the ECB looks to curtail its "emergency" asset purchases, but nonetheless is assessing other stimulus measures. No rate hike there. Certainly neither in China as economic consumption and the property market continue to weaken. "Got Dollars?" For indeed as you already well know lest you've been in a hole, the StateSide FedFolks look to bring their Bank's Funds rate up into the 0.75%-to-1.00% target range by the end of next year. And as noted, we think they'll initially move on 26 January, barring an excessive bout of "Oh my! Omicron!" Oh, and from the "Oh By The Way Dept." President "Jumpin' Joe" Biden just signed the $2.5 Trillion Dollar Debasement Declaration so that TreaSec Janet "Old Yeller" Yellen can keep paying the nation's debt obligations and bills through most of next year. For some perspective: the U.S. money supply from 02 January 1998 to 09 September 2005 grew by $2.5 trillion, (a pace of $1 trillion per 802 trading days) during which time the price of Gold increased by 55%. Today (as previously noted), the money supply is increasing at a an average rate of $1 trillion per just 93 trading days, but terrifically under-owned Gold basically "ain't done squat" (technical term). Just in case yer scorin' at home. Speaking of scoring, the Economic Barometer's strength through November has run out of puff thus far in December as we see here: Notable Baro improvements from last week's set of 15 incoming metrics include November's Capacity Utilization and Building Permits amongst other higher housing measures; but the month's growth in Industrial Production slowed significantly, as did Retail Sales. And whilst December's New York State Empire Index marginally gained ground, the Philly Fed Index more than halved what November's had found. And oh yes, there was also wholesale inflation for November, the Producer Price Index recording an annualized pace of +9.6%: which makes the old riddle about "How many zeros can fit on a Zimbabwean banknote?" not as funny as once 'twas. But 'tis not to worry, the FOMC having just stated that "...Progress on vaccinations and an easing of supply constraints are expected to support continued gains in economic activity and employment as well as a reduction in inflation..." As to how many rising Baby Blue dots does a consistent trend make, let's turn to our two-panel graphic for Gold's daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and those for Silver on the right. The respective rightmost up turns from the -80% axes are generally harbingers of higher prices, (and to wit the MACD study for Gold earlier shown). But Friday's rejective price action does initially breed some cause for concern: "The M Word" crowd? The quadruple-witch? Both? We display, you assay: Next we've the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold (below left) and Silver (below right). To be sure, by this view Gold's infinite 1780s appear supportive, whereas poor ole Sister Silver's array is a congested display: Let's close with three mentions of inflation: â–  Dow Jones Newswires "reported" this past week that a factor in determining the duration of inflation is how we feel about it, which in turn shall guide the Fed's interest rate decisions; (folks are well-paid to write this stuff). Here's what we feel: be it cost-push or demand-pull or both, when the money supply increases 33% in less than two years, 'tis game over; â–  From the same creative bunch also came the notion that because increasing inflation effectively makes for negative real rates of interest, the FOMC by not (yet) voting to raise rates is therefore actually stimulating the economy. Yeah, we get that, but such rationale may be the biggest infatuative policy-wonk hot-air crush ever; â–  Speaking of which, here's an inflation-induced blast: we read that the rather wealthy Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives is not supportive of a proposed ban on Congressional members from owning individual equities, her stating that "We’re a free-market economy": how's that for a 180° turn? (Maggie Thatcher, you don't know what you're missing). But don't you miss out in getting some Gold and Silver on the cheap before inevitably they leap. True, they had a rather feeble takeoff attempt this past week. But once they really get airborne, that'll be our kind of inflation, right there! Cheers! ...m... www.deMeadville.com www.TheGoldUpdate.com

Bitcoin price is in a massive accumulation phase before it explodes to $100,000 or more. The bull run is likely to begin after a deep correction to MicroStrategy’s average buy price at $29,860. On-chain metrics suggest that long-term holders are booking profit, adding a tailwind to the bearish thesis. Bitcoin price has been hanging around the $50,000 psychological level for quite some time. A breakdown of one crucial support barrier is likely to trigger a steep crash for BTC. On-chain metrics are also suggesting that long-term holders are booking profits, anticipating a nosedive. Bitcoin price and MicroStrategy’s accumulation Bitcoin price has been stuck between the 21-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $51,782 and the 50-week SMA at $44,730 for roughly two weeks. Although BTC pierced through the 50-week SMA on December 4 crash, it recovered quickly. As the sell-off continues, the big crypto is slowly slithering its way to retest the vital support level. A weekly close below the 50-week SMA at $44,730 will indicate a major shift in trend from bullish to bearish. This development would also signal that Bitcoin price is due to collect liquidity resting below the $40,596 support level. While this liquidity run might knock BTC below $40,000, it is a temporary move. In the long run, investors can expect the pioneer crypto to consolidate here before heading to $30,000 or the liquidity resting below it. Interestingly this downswing is necessary to trigger the stop-losses resting below a critical $29,860 level, which is the average buy-in price of MicroStrategy. To date, the business intelligence software company has purchased 122,477 BTC, which is 0.53% of the total BTC in existence. The total value of Bitcoins held by MicroStrategy is worth $5.76 billion, which indicates a profit of roughly 56%. It is fair to assume that many whales or long-term holders that are betting on BTC have an average price at roughly the same level as MicroStrategy or a bit lower. Therefore, a dip below the average price of MicroStrategy at $29,860 will indicate a ‘max pain’ scenario and is likely to be where many investors may panic and sell to prevent losses. Market makers are likely to drive Bitcoin price to retest this barrier, therefore, or just below it. While this outlook is speculative, it would make sense for BTC, especially from a market makers’ perspective due to the supply resting below the multiple wicks present around the $30,000 psychological level. In total, this move would represent a 36% crash from the current position. Although unlikely, a worst-case scenario would be for BTC to fall by 48%, allowing it to retest the 200-week SMA at $23,935. BTC/USD 1-week chart IntoTheBlock’s Global In/Out of the Money (GIOM) model reflects the levels mentioned above. This on-chain index shows that the immediate cluster of investors that are “In the Money,” extends from $28,350 to $46,636. Roughly 5.23 million addresses purchased 3.13 million BTC at an average price of $38,283. Therefore, a weekly close below this level will cause panic selling among investors that could drag the big crypto down to sub-$30,000 levels. Moreover, any short-term buying pressure is likely to face massive headwinds as a massive cluster of underwater investors are present from $55,302 to $67,413. In this range, roughly 6.65 million addresses that purchased 3.37 million BTC are “Out of the Money.” Only a massive spike in buying pressure will be able to overcome the selling pressure from investors in this cluster trying to break even. Hence, the logical conclusion is that the outlook for BTC favors the bears. BTC GIOM The supply shock chart supports the bearish outlook for Bitcoin. It shows that the long-term holders are booking profits. Willy Woo, a popular analyst stated, long term holders have been selling down and taking profits, but as a cohort they continue to be in a region of peak accumulation. Bear markets coincide when these holders have divested of their coins, despite the fear in the market, structurally we are not setup for a bear market. BTC supply shock chart Further supporting a sell-off is the 0.83% decline in the number of whales holding between 100 to 100,000 BTC. Roughly 136 whales have offloaded their positions as seen in the supply shock chart above. BTC whale distribution chart The only chart that shows hope and presents the possibility of a short-term bullish outlook is the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) model, hovering around -1.8%. This on-chain metric is used to determine the average profit/loss of investors that purchased BTC over the past year. A negative value represents that short-term holders are selling and is often referred to as the “opportunity zone.” This is where mid-to-long-term holders accumulate. So, there is a chance that BTC might see a potential buying spree that pushes it to retest the 21-week SMA at $51,776 or reach for the $57,845 resistance barrier, in a highly bullish case. BTC 365-day MVRV While the scenario outlined above is undoubtedly bearish for short-term holders, it will provide long-term investors with a perfect buying opportunity. A retest of MicroStrategy’s average buy price at $29,860 will be where investors can expect a reversal of the downswing. The resulting uptrend will likely propel Bitcoin price to a new all-time high at $100,000. However, if Bitcoin price decides to skip the crash and produces a weekly close above the current all-time high at $69,000, then it will invalidate the bullish thesis. In such a case, investors can expect BTC to head to other psychological barriers like $70,000 or $80,000.

BABA shares have fallen sharply on fears over delisting. Alibaba stock is now down at 5-year lows. $100 is the next major support as $110 is held for now. Alibaba (BABA) continues to suffer from repeated selling pressure as the original Chinese tech stock suffers backlash effects. Alibaba can be said to have set off the whole Chinese regulatory crackdown. Alibaba was due to spin off its payment subsidiary ANT Group about 14 months ago. The deal fell through, however, after Alibaba CEO Jack Ma appeared to question the Chinese hierarchy. This was the catalyst for a reexamination by China of its burgeoning tech space. Most notably, intense regulatory scrutiny focused on the huge amounts of data generated and stored by Chinese tech names. China saw this as a matter of concern over national security. DIDI was next in the crosshairs. It had IPO'd successfully in New York in early 2021. The stock had listed in New York in apparent defiance of Chinese officials. Once China set its sights on DIDI, panic soon ensued among Chinese tech investors, and BABA and others suffered contagion effects. The trend has been powerful with momentum completely vanishing. BABA shares are down 25% in the last three months, taking total losses for 2021 to 48%. Alibaba (BABA) chart, daily Alibaba (BABA) stock news Alibaba was once known as the Chinese Amazon, and for good reason. The company is still highly profitable. Revenues have grown from $158 billion in 2017 to $717 billion in 2021. This represents a growth rate of nearly 50% from 2020. Despite this, the share price is down a similar amount as mentioned. Gross profit grew 30% to March 2021. Revenue continued to grow as the Chinese tech bubble burst. Revenue is forecast to remain strong, growing by 22% in 2022 and 17% for 2023 and 2024. Revenue will, if those targets are met, have grown to $1.2 trillion by 2024. This represents a near doubling from current levels. Alibaba was hit with a heavy fine by the Chinese authorities after the ANT Group debacle. Investors had hoped the matter was finally settled, but the power of investor fear resurfaced once China restarted its scrutiny of US-listed names, this time with DIDI being the poster child. This fear is likely to remain elevated as Chinese and US tensions are unlikely to subside anytime soon. China is also not likely done with its crackdown and delisting plans for some of its tech names. This presents opportunities and challenges. BABA may be overvalued fundamentally with strong revenue growth, but momentum and fear are powerful factors. More important is uncertainty. Markets hate uncertainty, and that is currently the main headwind for Alibaba and other Chinese tech names. Alibaba (BABA) stock forecast Breaking support at $130 has led to an obvious fascination with $100. Before that, there is a last chance saloon support at $110. This is the September 2016 high. The daily chart has registered an oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has also crossed into bullish territory. A close above the 9-day moving average is needed to get short-term traders interested. Long-term players will need to see a move above $170. The short-term trend is bearish until the 9-day moving average is broken. The stock remains bullish in the short term on a break of $130 in our view. This is high risk, so please use stops. BABA 1-day chart

  First a pandemic, then inflation, and now an energy crisis. Should you buy gold when preparing for the winter? Brace yourselves, winter is coming! And this time I’m deadly serious, as there is a global energy crisis. Not only does gold lack energy to fuel its rally right now, but people from all over the world lack it to fuel their operations and to heat their houses. Apparently, the coronavirus pandemic wasn’t enough, so we also have to deal with inflation, supply bottlenecks, and the energy crisis. I guess there is nothing else to do now but wait for the frogs to start falling from the sky. But let’s not give the gods ideas and focus on the energy crisis today. What is it about? A picture is worth a thousand words, so please take a look at the chart below, which presents the Dutch Title Transfer Facility, Europe’s leading benchmark for natural gas prices. As you can see, future prices for European natural gas have skyrocketed to a record level in October 2021, surging several times from their low in May 2020. The persistence and global dimension of these price spikes are unprecedented, as natural gas prices have also surged in Asia and America (although to a lesser degree). What caused such a spike? Well, as a trained economist, I cannot resist answering that it’s a matter of demand and supply! Yeah, thank you, Captain Obvious, but could you be a little more specific? Sure, so on the demand side, we have to mention a fast recovery from the epidemic and cold fall that increased the use of energy. Oh, and don’t forget about the ultra-low interest rates and the increase in the money supply that boosted spending on practically everything. The increased demand for energy is hardly surprising in such conditions. On the supply side, there were unpredictable breakdowns of gas infrastructure in Russia and Norway that decreased deliveries. The former country reduced its exports due to political reasons. What’s more, the reduction in the supply of CO2 emission rights and unfavorable weather didn’t help. The windless conditions in Europe generated little wind energy, while drought in Brazil reduced hydropower energy. More fundamentally, the decline in energy prices in response to the economic crisis of 2020 prompted many producers to stop drilling and later supply simply didn’t catch up with surging demand. You can also add here the political decisions to move away from nuclear and carbon energy in some countries. Last but not least, the butterfly’s wings flapped in China. Coal production in that country plunged this year amid a campaign against corruption and floods that deluged some mines. Middle Kingdom therefore began to buy significant amounts of natural gas, sharply increasing its prices. China’s ban on importing coal from Australia, of course, didn’t help here. Great, but what does the energy crisis imply for the global economy and the gold market? First, shortages of energy could be a drag on global GDP. The slowdown in economic growth should be positive for gold, as it would bring us closer to stagflation. Second, the energy crisis could cause discontent among citizens and strengthen the populists. People are already fed up with pandemics and high inflation, and now they have to pay much higher energy bills. Just imagine how they will cheer when blackouts occur. Third, the surge in natural gas prices could support high producer and consumer inflation. We are already observing some ripple effects in the coal and oil markets that could also translate into elevated CPI numbers. Another inflationary factor is power shortages in China, as they will add to the supply disruptions we are currently facing. All this implies more persistent high inflation, which should provide support for the yellow metal as an inflation hedge, although it also increases the odds of a more hawkish Fed, which is rather negative for gold. It’s true that a replay of the 1970s-like energy crisis is remote, as today’s economies are much less energy-consuming and dependent on fossil fuels. However, the worst is possibly yet to come. After all, winter hasn’t arrived yet – and it could be another harsh one, especially given that La Niña is expected to be present for the second year in a row. Meanwhile, gas stocks are unusually low. You can connect the dots. So far, gold has rather ignored the unfolding energy crisis, but we’ve already seen that market narratives can change quickly. It’s therefore possible that prolonged supply disruption and high inflation could change investors’ attitude toward the yellow metal at some point. The weak gold’s reaction stems from the limited energy crisis in the US and from the focus on the Fed’s tightening cycle. But investors’ attention can shift, especially when the Fed starts hiking federal funds rate. Brace yourselves! Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.

Bitcoin price slides lower, hinting at a retest of the 50 weekly SMA at $44,778. Ethereum price prepares for a 16% breakout from the falling wedge pattern. Ripple price could see an 11% ascent to $0.96 as it prepares for a second leg-up. Bitcoin price is moving sideways, trapped between crucial weekly moving averages. This consolidation has had a positive knock-on effect on Ethereum price which is setting up a bullish pattern ready for a breakout. Ripple, on the other hand, has already embarked on a climb and is preparing for its second leg-up. Bitcoin price anticipates short-term losses Bitcoin price is in a slow downtrend and looking to retest the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $44,778. While this development will see BTC shed roughly 3%, it could result in a bounce, triggering a bullish outlook. A successful bounce off the said SMA will open the path to retest the 21-week SMA at $51,256 and, in a highly bullish case, the $53,709 resistance level. If the bid orders continue to pour in, the pioneer crypto is likely to continue its ascent and tag the $57,845 barrier. Regardless, investors need to note that this bullish outlook is contingent on a successful bounce off the 50-week SMA at $44,778. BTC/USD 1-day chart If Bitcoin price slices through the SMA at $44,778, there is a good chance it will continue its descent to $40,596 to collect the liquidity resting below it. A daily close below $44,778 will invalidate the bullish thesis detailed above. Ethereum price eyes higher highs Ethereum price has been outlining a falling wedge pattern since November 28. This technical formation is obtained by connecting the three lower lows and four lower highs formed during this period using trend lines. The setup forecasts a 16% upswing, obtained by adding the distance between the first swing high and swing low to the breakout point at $3,912, which puts ETH at $4,533. Assuming Ethereum price can bounce off the 70.5% retracement level at $3,780, this run-up would constitute a 20% ascent. Therefore, investors need to keep a close eye on the reversal of the retracement. ETH/USD 4-hour chart On the other hand, if Ethereum price shatters the $3,780 and $3,740 barriers, it is likely to head lower to retest the range low at $3,669. A four-hour candlestick close below this level will create a lower low, invalidating the bullish thesis. Ethereum price must reclaim $4,200 as support to resume bull run Ripple price vies to keep going higher Ripple price consolidated around the $0.837 resistance barrier for more than a week. The increased buying pressure resulted in an 11% spike in XRP price, pushing it to set up a potential swing high at $0.917. While the initial surge was noticeable, investors can expect XRP price to retrace before triggering another rally. The 0.837 support level will likely be tagged again soon. Assuming this occurs, market participants can expect Ripple price to climb 12% to retest the $0.936 hurdle. In some cases, XRP price might extend this advance to collect the liquidity resting above $0.980 or $1.018 hurdles. XRP/USD 4-hour chart While things are looking up for Ripple price, a breakdown of the $0.837 support level will indicate weakness among buyers. In this case, XRP price will probably dip below the $0.749 demand barrier to collect the liquidity resting there. A daily close below this level will indicate buyers are unwilling to push the price higher and invalidate the bullish thesis for the remittance token. XRP price looks primed for a break out to $1.75

AUDUSD sees limited rebound The Australian dollar softens over dovish RBA meeting minutes. The pair has met stiff selling pressure near the 30-day moving average (0.7220). On the hourly chart, a bearish MA cross and a break below 0.7100 indicate weakness in the latest rebound. An oversold RSI may cause a brief rally, but the bears may sell into strength around 0.7160. 0.7050 at the base of the initial breakout is an important support. A lack of bids could send the Aussie to 0.6990 with the reversal attempt at stake. XAGUSD to test demand area Silver drops as the US dollar inched higher across the board. A bullish RSI divergence suggests a loss of momentum in the sell-off. Then the recent surge has broken above multiple levels of resistance, prompting the short side to cover some of their bets. However, the bulls may need to defend their gains after the initial push overextended. The demand zone between last September’s low (21.40) and 21.80 is critical in keeping the rebound valid. 22.65 is now a fresh resistance before a full-blown recovery could materialize. US 30 struggles for support The Dow Jones retreated as major countries imposed curfews ahead of the holiday season. Following a double top under 36200, a drop below 35450 has broken buyers’ attempt to resume the rally. The index is struggling to hold above the base of the December recovery (34800) which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from 34000. Buyers will need to lift 35620 before they could attract followers’ attention. 34000 is the daily support to safeguard the bullish bias in the medium-term.

Finally, Powell admitted higher inflation risks and gold jumped above $1,800. Before anyone noticed, however, it plummeted below the key level again. Who are you, Mr. Powell: a reptilian or a human? A dove or a hawk? Since we all know the answer to the first question, let’s focus on the second one. Markets decided that Powell’s last press conference was rather dovish, but a careful reading doesn’t support this view. The main dovish signal was Powell’s emphasis that quantitative easing tapering and interest rate hikes are separate issues, as the tightening cycle criteria are stricter. So, the first rate hike may not come immediately after the end of tapering, which is scheduled for mid-March. Even if they are separate, we shouldn’t expect a long break between the end of quantitative easing and the first rate hike. This gap will definitely be shorter than in 2014-2015. In the last tightening cycle, the Fed ended asset purchases in October 2014, while the first increase in the federal funds rate occurred in December 2015. Powell himself, however, pointed out that the economy is much stronger, while inflation is much higher, so a long separation before interest rate hikes is not likely: I don't foresee that there would be that kind of very extended wait at this time. The economy is so much stronger. I was here at the Fed when we lifted it off last time and the economy is so much stronger now, so much closer to full employment. Inflation is running well above target and growth as well above potential. There wouldn't be the need for that kind of long delay (…) The last cycle that was quite a long separation before interest rates, I don't think that's at all likely in this cycle. We're in a very, very different place with high inflation, strong growth, a really strong economy (…) So this is a strong economy, one in which it's appropriate for interest rate hikes. In fact, this delay may be very short. On Friday, Fed Governor Chris Waller said that the interest rate increase will likely be warranted “shortly after” the end of asset purchases, possibly even at the FOMC meeting in March 2022. Another hawkish message sent by Powell was his acknowledgment of stronger inflation risks, i.e., that inflation may turn out to be more lasting than expected now: There’s a real risk now, we believe, I believe, that inflation may be more persistent and that may be putting inflation expectations under pressure. And that the risk of higher inflation becoming entrenched has increased, it’s certainly increased. I don’t think it’s high at this moment, but I think it’s increased. And I think that’s part of the reason behind our move today, is to put ourselves in a position to be able to deal with that risk. Thus, the Fed has become more concerned about high inflation and has timidly started reacting to it. The acceleration in the pace of tapering was, except for the more hawkish rhetoric, the first step – but not the last one.   Implications for Gold The yellow metal responded surprisingly well to the last FOMC meeting, at which the Fed announced a more aggressive pace of tapering and rate hikes next year. As the chart below shows, gold rose almost $40, or more than 2%, from Wednesday to Friday last week, jumping again above the key level of $1,800. Perhaps investors expected even more forceful actions. After all, despite all the hawkish reaction, the Fed remains behind the curve and shows no hurry to become really proactive. Such a passive attitude is really risky, as history teaches us that high inflation doesn’t just go away on its own, but its stabilization requires a decisive tightening of monetary policy. The longer the Fed waits, the more severe reaction would be needed, which increases the odds of putting the economy into recession. All this seems bullish for gold prices. However, gold was unable to retain its position above $1,800 and declined on Monday (December 20, 2021), so gold bulls can only hope that the yellow metal will the find strength to rally next year. It’s possible if inflation wreaks more havoc in 2022, but a hawkish Fed’s rhetoric remains an important headwind for the gold market. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

S&P 500 made a first step towards the turnaround higher in the opening part of this week. Fading the rally is being countered, and yesterday‘s omicron policy response fears are being duly reversed. For the time being, Fed‘s liquidity is still being added – the real wildcard moving the markets, is corona these days. Credit markets are in the early stages of heralding risk-on appetite as returning. As stated yesterday when mentioning my 2022 outlook: (…) Fading the FOMC rally went a bit too far – credit markets aren‘t panicking, so I doubt a fresh lasting downtrend is starting here. Chop, yes – the 4,720 area is proving a tough nut to crack, but it would be overcome. If there are two arguments in favor, it‘s the financials and HYG – the likely rebound in the former, and Friday‘s resilience in the latter. Given that Thursday‘s spurt to 4,750 evaporated so fast, I‘m not looking for a stellar year end. Positive given where we‘re trading currently, sure. Markets are now grappling with faster Fed tapering (which has opened the way to a rate hike in Q2 2022), getting slowly more afraid of fresh corona restrictions, and dealing with inflation that‘s not going anywhere. Outpacing wage growth, with real yields being deeply negative (no, 10-year Treasury yield at even 2% doesn‘t cut it – that‘s my 2022 target, by the way), the administration would be hard pressed in the year of midterms to counter the corrosive inflation effects on poll numbers. And the Fed expects to keep tightening when the real economy is already suffering from contracting liquidity as seen also in strengthening dollar? The central bank will have a hard time taming inflation, and in my view won‘t succeed – the persistently high inflation rates are going to be with us for years to come, and outpacing wages. … Similar to the recent high PPI reading, this is one more argument for why inflation isn‘t receding in the short run – not when demand isn‘t likewise being destroyed. As if consumer sentiment weren‘t struggling already... For now, the year end squaring the books trading can go on, and positive Santa Claus seasonality can make itself heard still. The crypto turn that I had been looking for on the weekend, is happening with strength today. Likewise the oil and copper recovery spilling over into silver, and the reasonably good performance returning to many value stocks too. Very constructive action. In short, the bulls have a good rebound opportunity into Christmas. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 is waking up, and odds are the move would bring it back above the 50-day moving average. Looking at the volume, it‘s as if fresh sellers were nowhere to be found. Credit Markets HYG made an attempt to come back, and comparing it to the quality end of the bond spectrum results in a good impression – one of risk-on return approaching. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals downswing isn‘t to be taken too seriously – odds are strong that gold and silver would ride the risk-on return with gains added. It‘s about liquidity not being withdrawn by the market players. Crude Oil Crude oil recoved from the omicron uncertainty – to a good degree, which is a testament to the overwhelming pressure for prices to keep rising. The $72 area setback could be coming back into play still this week, if nothing too surprising happens. Copper Copper is leaning to the bullish side of the spectrum, driven not only by positive fundamentals and Chile elections. The low volume indeed hinted at little willingness to sell – so, let‘s look for a good attempt to rise next. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum weakness is being decisively rejected, mirroring commodities – the decline indeed hasn‘t been in the disastrous category. The bulls clearly want to move. Summary S&P 500 and oil are rebounding from the omicron response pinch – and it‘s good we see cryptos doing the same. Corona wildcard has calmed down a little, and market breadth is making baby steps to improve. In this environment, high beta assets look poised to erase prior setbacks a little faster today, and can keep those gains unless a fresh bad headline strikes. One more tailwind – at least when it comes to real assets, for sure – is inflation coming back to the spotlight, which is what we‘ll have to wait for some more time still. But it‘ll happen. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Typically, various time frames perform better or worse for a trader at different times due to cycle overlaps. Having multiple trades on simultaneously from different time frames is typically an excellent hedge. This way, one can catch the specific trading instruments’ various shorter and longer-term trends. BTC in US-Dollar, Quarterly Chart, patience pays: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of December 21st, 2021. Typical mistakes are either an early entry or a chased trade and getting out too early of a steady trend. These behaviors have to do with pleasure-seeking and pain avoidance motivation. With the chart above in mind, most pass if presented with an opportunity where rewards are paid out in ten years. Wealth preservation, which we are after, should have nothing else in mind—long-term protection with a low-risk profile and a solid performance. The chart presented above is our most conservative view of the future for bitcoin, both in price and time. Meaning, it would come as no surprise to us if much higher price levels are achieved in a much shorter period of time. Yet, we tend to estimate typically very conservative to keep emotions like greed in check. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, Bitcoin’s bullish time cycle alignment: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of December 21st, 2021. The percentage gain numbers of the previous chart assume the worst possible purchase price, which is an all-time high. If we purchase bitcoin right now or prices below recent trading prices, these numbers already drastically change. Meaning, while our pain-avoiding emotional motivators direct us in declining markets to sell, it is principle-based if you have statistically high probability models over the long term to instead think about purchasing bitcoin. As indicated in the weekly chart above, we see a window of opportunity for entries based on our quarterly chart exit time horizon. Scenario A, the more aggressive position-taking, is in a process already at the release of this chart book. Nevertheless, there is a probability that prices could decline as far as US$40,000, and low-risk entry spots within the price decline to such lower levels would be as a scenario B welcome just as well. Should prices penetrate below the US$40,000 level, a regrouping would be required before new entries could be discussed. BTC in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, Position building in motion: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of December 21st, 2021. Assuming entries here in our entry zone between US$47,000 and US$40,000 and exits in our first chart of this chart book, a bitcoin investment next to be an insurance play against troubled fiat currencies could provide a profit near a thousand percent. The daily chart above has marked days and entry prices of three trades we posted live in our free Telegram channel in the last five days. We took partial profits based on our quad exit strategy within hours of entry. Consequently, eliminating the original stop risk of less than a percent to zero risk. With a risk-reward ratio of 1:1000, we find it reasonable to sit through a few years with the remainder position size for sizeable rewards. Bitcoin’s bullish time cycle alignment: Some of the worst mistakes in history were made based on the shortsightedness not to think long term. As creative and inventive a species, we cannot help but follow emotions that often do not have our own best interest in mind. One such emotion is instant gratification. It seems almost a burden to wait for being rewarded patiently. Yet, it is this discipline one needs to be a successful trader. First, you need the patience to not always be too early with one’s entry in a trade not to catch a falling knife. Then you require the patience not to chase a trade if you missed it.  Instead, wait for a later chance to get another low-risk entry spot or to pass up on the trade altogether. And foremost, once finding yourself in a good trade, it is imperative to sit on your hands and let the trade mature to full profits. The higher the time frame of your play is, the harder this test of your patience becomes.Remedies are good planning, consistent reviewing of a plan, rigorously following it, and employing an exit strategy suitable to your psychology (see our quad exit strategy). Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|December 21st, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

  Gold is barely crawling up, while silver is boldly climbing the market ladder. When will its rungs turn slippery, causing the precious metal to fall?  Yesterday’s session was particularly uneventful in the case of the precious metals market, as crude oil and the general stock market stole the spotlight. Consequently, today’s analysis will focus on what’s happening in pre-market trading, as that’s what appears to be more important. At the moment of writing these words, gold is up very modestly – less than 0.2%. Consequently, after rallying to about $1,815 (in tune with my Thursday’s analysis) and invalidating the breakout above the rising resistance line, gold appears to be making another attempt to rally, but the strength of the move is very limited. Predicting higher gold prices might not be the best idea here, as the yellow metal was not able to even get to the red line, let alone to its previous monthly high. Silver, on the other hand, has moved quite visibly higher so far today. While gold moved higher by less than 0.2%, silver rallied by about 1.5% and is now trading very close to its previous monthly highs. This is very interesting, because silver is showing strength and weakness at once. How is that possible – one might ask. It’s the same as with trends or forecasts for silver. They can be bearish and bullish simultaneously, depending on the time frame that one focuses on. For example, I think that the very long-term outlook for silver is extremely bullish, but I also think that the medium-term trend is bearish. The short-term trend is also bearish, but the immediate-term trend is bullish. So, am I bullish or bearish on silver? Answering this without specifying the time frame is bound to create misunderstandings. Getting back to silver’s relative performance, it’s been weak when taking into account the last couple of weeks – please note how little of the recent monthly decline silver has corrected compared to gold. Gold recently moved to its October highs, but silver topped a few dollars below its October high. What does it tell us? Silver is likely to fall hard, also compared to gold, probably in tune with the general stock market – similarly to what happened in 2008 and 2020. That’s the same kind of performance that we saw in the very early parts of the huge declines. At the same time, silver is strong compared to gold on an immediate-term basis. This means that we’re likely at or close to a short-term top. Why? Because that’s what the precious metals market tends to do when it’s topping, and it’s one of the great gold trading tips to monitor the PM market for these situations. One could debate why this is really the case, and there are quite a few theories (the silver market is smaller, so more prone to sudden moves, etc.), but the point is that it simply works. Please note that some things – like the Pareto principle (a.k.a. the 20:80 rule) – can work and be very useful, even if it’s not clear why they work. Consequently, it seems that the days of this short-term corrective upswing are either over or about to be over, and that the precious metals sector will return to its medium-term decline any day now. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

XAUUSD seeks support Gold softens as the US dollar edged higher. A surge above 1788 and then 1808 has prompted the bears to cover. The precious metal is looking for support after the breakout stalled with an overextended RSI. A bearish MA cross may weigh on short-term sentiment. The base of the initial breakout around 1770 is a key support. A deeper correction would lead to the daily support at 1753, a critical level to keep the rebound relevant. Gold may climb towards 1850 if the bulls succeed in pushing above 1814. USDCAD consolidates gains The Canadian dollar recouped some losses after better-than-expected retail sales. A break above the major daily resistance at 1.2930 has put the bulls back in control of the direction. The RSI’s repeated overbought situation may cause a temporary pullback. Trend followers would be looking to jump in at a better price. 1.2880 is the closest support. Sentiment would remain upbeat as long as price action is above 1.2770. A rally above the intermediate resistance at 1.2960 may trigger an extended rally towards 1.3200. UK 100 makes a bullish attempt The FTSE 100 recovered some ground after the Omicron sell-off. The index has found solid buying at 7110. An oversold RSI has attracted a buying-the-dips crowd. A tentative break above 7300 suggests strong interest in keeping the market afloat. A bullish MA cross could lead to an acceleration on the upside. 7385 is a major hurdle on the daily chart. Its breach could cause a runaway rally and resume the uptrend. On the downside, 7250 is the first support, and 7110 is the second line of defense in case of weakness.

S&P 500 duly rallied on broad strength, and credit markets performance bodes well for all risk-on assets. Now a little consolidation after yesterday‘s steep gains is ahead, but I don‘t see it as derailing future gains. The stock bull run isn‘t over, and doesn‘t need the infrastructure bill for its further advance, price action shows. The VIX is calming down, now around 21 with further room to decline still – at least as far as the remainder of 2021 is concerned. Commodities remain in rally mode after the recent correction, and crude oil sending a bullish message (and not one of fear) is a welcome sign. The same goes for copper moving in sync with the rest of the commodities – and that has positive implications for silver too. Precious metals though still remain a patience trade, where the risks of being out of the markets outweight those of being in – it‘s a bet on the Fed making a wrong tapering / tightening move – with the market figuring out so beforehand. It sure would come as the compressing yield spreads reveal that is the greatest fear, but we aren‘t there yet. Finally, cryptos cautious mood today illustrates the certainly less exciting session just ahead than was the case yesterday. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 has woken up, and indeed surpassed the 50-day moving average. The lower volume isn‘t an issue, but a little consolidation is ahead today – not a steep rally continuation. Credit Markets HYG jumped higher in a giant risk-on nod that is further confirmed by the quality bonds performance. Again, I‘m looking for a little consolidation here today as well. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold downswing isn‘t to be taken at all seriously – I‘m looking for more gains in both the yellow and white metals, at their own and relatively slow pace. The countdown to Fed policy mistake and inflation returning to the limelight, is on. Crude Oil Crude oil scored a nice upswing, oil stocks confirmed as well the return of strength into the stock market, and both black gold and S&P 500 can keep rising together over the next days. Chances are the $72 area setback could be coming back into play still this week. Copper Copper keeps agreeing with the risk-on turn, and is certainly primed to go much higher over the nearest weeks and months. Similarly to uranium, I remain bullish on the sector, especially since copper, silver, nickel and lithium are all green economy preconditions. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum time to consolidate yesterday‘s gains, is here – and I‘m not looking for a bullish picture based on Ethereum performance. Sideways to a little down, that‘s the most likely outcome before the bulls move again. Summary Consolidation of yesterday‘s steep S&P 500 and commodity gains is ahead for today, but the Santa Claus rally is by no means over. Even if oil and cryptos hesitate a little, the constructive message from bonds and copper is overpowering that in my view. As explained in detail within the opening part of today‘s analysis, the bulls have to odds to keep moving – and will likely take advantage thereof before the year is over. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Gold advances during the New York session, some 0.19%. A mixed market mood and broad US dollar weakness keep investors using gold to hedge higher inflation as US PCE data looms. XAU/USD Technical Outlook: Neutral-bearish, unless gold bulls reclaim $1,793. Gold (XAU/USD) edged higher during the New York session, trading at $1,791.63 at the time of writing. The market sentiment is upbeat, though US equity indices fluctuate between gainers and losers. Additionally, the US dollar weakened across the board, while US T-bond yields, with the 10-year benchmark note, retreats after testing the 1.50% threshold in the overnight session. Factors like investors assessing the economic impact of the Omicron variant and the delay of the US President Joe Biden Build Back Better agenda dented market participants’ mood. That said, the US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback’s value against a basket of six currencies, edges lower 0.27%, down to 96.25. Furthermore, as previously mentioned, the 10-year Treasury yield is down some three basis points, at 1.457%, from 1.487% reached on Tuesday’s session. Before Wall Street opened, the US economic docket featured one of the last waves of data of 2021. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the US economy in the third-quarters grew at an annualized pace of 2.3%, higher than the 2.1% estimated. Moreover, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices rose by 5.3%, according to expectations. In the overnight session, gold remained subdued in a narrow range, between $1,785-$1,795. In the mid-European session, the non-yielding metal trended up, though faced strong resistance at the 100-hour simple moving average (SMA), retreating at press time to current levels. That said, unless XAU/USD decisively breaks above $1,793, the precious metal would remain bearish biased. XAU/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook The XAU/USD daily chart depicts indecision, as shown by the daily moving averages (DMAs) almost “horizontally” contained in the $1,787-$1,800 range. From a market structure perspective, unless gold bulls reclaim $1,792.95, the bias is bearish, though to resume the trend, USD bulls would need a daily close below the December 16 pivot low at $1,775.40. On the way south, the first support would be the December 16 low at $1,775.40. A break beneath that level would exert downward pressure on the precious metal, exposing crucial support areas. The next one would be the December 2 low at $1,761.72, followed by the December 15 cycle low at $1,752.44 To the upside, the first resistance would be the December 8 cycle high at $1,792.95. A clear break of that level would immediately expose $1,800, followed by the September 3 swing high at $1,834.

Bitcoin price swept the liquidity resting above $49,527 and edged closer to retesting the $50,000 psychological level. Ethereum price could see a brief correction to solidify its breakout from the falling wedge pattern. Ripple price remains strong as it sets up a higher high, indicating a retest of $1 is likely. Bitcoin price is hovering around a crucial level after collecting liquidity above it. This development over the past 48 hours indicates that BTC will consolidate here before continuing its ascent. Ethereum and Ripple follow the pioneer crypto closely and show promise of gains soon. Bitcoin price faces a decisive moment Bitcoin price sliced through Monday’s high at $47,565 and collected the liquidity resting above $49,527. While BTC might head higher and retest the $50,000 psychological level, investors need to pay attention to the possibility that the big crypto might slide lower and sweep Monday’s low at $45,550. If buyers resist booking profits, there is a high chance BTC will retest $50,00 and make a run for last week’s high at $50,0835. In some cases, Bitcoin price might extend to the $53,618 resistance level. In total, this run-up would constitute an 8.6% ascent. BTC/USD 3-hour chart Increased profit-taking from holders could undo the gains seen over the past 48 hours. This development could knock BTC down to Monday’s lows at $45,550 or sweep last week’s lows at $45,438. Ethereum price needs to solidify its stance Ethereum price action since November 28 set up a falling wedge pattern. This setup is obtained by connecting the three lower lows and four lower highs formed during this period using trend lines. The technical formation forecasts a 16% upswing, obtained by adding the distance between the first swing high and swing low to the breakout point at $3,912, which puts ETH at $4,533. So far, ETH has broken out of this pattern and crawled closer to retest the $4,155 resistance barrier. Initially, however, investors can expect a retracement to $3,912 or the 62% retracement level at $3,823. A bounce from these barriers will solidify the breakout and indicate that a 16% ascent to $4,535 is likely. ETH/USD 4-hour chart Regardless of the bullish pattern, if Ethereum price produces a lower low below $3,669, coinciding with the low of the trading range, it will invalidate the bullish thesis. In this case, ETH could revisit the $3,415 support floor. Ethereum price must reclaim $4,200 as support to resume bull run Ripple price remains strong Ripple price pierced through the declining trend line on December 18 and has rallied 19% to set up a swing high at $0.971. This run-up, while impressive, could extend to retest the $1.015 resistance level. In a bullish case, the XRP price could tag the $1.102 hurdle and collect the liquidity resting above it. However, it is unlikely that the remittance token will continue this ascent, especially since BTC might undergo a minor retracement. XRP/USD 4-hour chart Due to the correlation between the two, XRP price might follow the big crypto and undergo a correction. Moreover, the 19% ascent seen so far has collected the liquidity in its immediate vicinity and is likely to undergo a minor retracement. If this downswing pushes Ripple price below $0.688, it will create a lower low, invalidating the bullish thesis. XRP price looks primed for a break out to $1.75

EURUSD tests resistance The US dollar stalled over improved risk appetite. The pair is consolidating near June 2020’s lows. A bearish breakout would further extend the downtrend. The euro so far has found buyers at 1.1235. The bulls need to lift offers around 1.1360, the upper band of the recent consolidation range, before they could hope for a reversal. An extended rally may send the price to 1.1460. In the meantime, the RSI’s overbought situation could briefly limit the bullish push as intraday traders take profit near the resistance. GBPUSD makes a bullish attempt The sterling surged after Britain’s economy showed solid growth in Q3. A previous rebound to the supply zone near 1.3370 has put pressure on the short side. Then the pound found bids at 1.3170. Four attempts at this key support suggest a strong interest in keeping the price steady. 1.3370 is a major hurdle as it coincides with the 30-day moving average. A breakout could initiate a bullish reversal and propel the pound to 1.3500. An overbought RSI may cause a short pullback with 1.3240 as the closest support. USOIL awaits breakout WTI crude found support from a larger-than-expected decline in US inventories. Price action saw active buying above 66.00, keeping the early December rally valid in the process. The latest rebound is testing the supply zone around 73.30, which sits along the 30-day moving average. A close above this area of interest would force the bears to cover, paving the way for a rally towards 78.00. On the downside, 71.00 is the immediate support. And 68.50 is a second line of defense in case of a deeper correction.

S&P 500 Santa rally goes on, and risk-on markets rejoice. What a nice sight of market breadth improvement, and confirmation from bonds. Financials and industrials are lagging, but real estate, healthcare and tech are humming smoothly. As I told you yesterday about volatility: (…) The VIX is calming down, now around 21 with further room to decline still – at least as far as the remainder of 2021 is concerned. We got the lower values, and today is shaping up to look likewise constructively for the bulls across both paper and real assets. Yesterday‘s dollar decline has helped as much as well bid bonds. Inflation expectations aren‘t yet doubting the Fed, there is no more compressing the yield curve at the moment, so it‘s all quiet on the central bank front. That‘s good, the Santa rally can go on unimpeded. Precious metals are peeking higher in what looks to be adjustment to the lower yields and dollar, and commodities upswing remains driven by energy, base metals and agrifoods. Cryptos hesitation may hint at slimmer gains today than was the case yesterday when instead of a brief consolidation, we were treated to improving returns. Merry Christmas if you‘re celebrating – and if not, happy holidays spent with your closest ones. Let the festive season and message of the Prince of Peace permeate our hearts and inspire the best in mankind. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 rally goes on, and the 4,720s are again approaching. Market breadth isn‘t miserable in the least, and the riskier end of the bond spectrum looks positive even if larger time frame worries haven‘t gone away. Classic Santa Claus rally. Credit Markets HYG keeps jumping higher – the risk-on sentiment is winning this week. A bit more strength from LQD would be welcome, but isn‘t an obstacle to further stock market gains. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold downswing indeed weren‘t to be taken at all seriously – solid gains across precious metals followed. I‘m expecting a not too rickety ride ahead as the metals keep appreciating at relatively slow pace. Crude Oil Crude oil extended gains, and even if oil stocks paused, downswing in black gold isn‘t looming. Importantly, the $72 area has been overcome – the bulls should be able to hold ground gained. Copper Copper keeps tracking the broader commodities rally, and isn‘t outperforming yet. The red metal‘s long consolidation goes on, and a breakout attempt on par with early Oct seems to be a question of quite a few weeks (not days) ahead. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are still consolidating Tuesday‘s gains – the performance is neither disappointing nor stellar. Both cryptos don‘t look to be in the mood for a break below Dec lows. Summary If not yesterday, then probably today we‘ll get a little consolidation of prior two day‘s steep S&P 500 and commodity gains (copper says) – the positive seasonality hasn‘t spoken its last word. HYG posture has significantly improved, and that bodes well for short-term gains still ahead before we dive into market circumstances turning increasingly volatile towards the end of Q1 2022. For now, let‘s keep celebrating – Merry Christmas once again – and enjoying the relatively smooth ride. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie --- 632nd Edition --- Monte-Carlo --- 25 December 2021 (published each Saturday) --- www.deMeadville.com Christmas Greetings to Everyone Everywhere. With but five trading days remaining in 2021, Gold -- as we'll show -- traditionally is the gift that keeps on giving into year-end. But first, we've this: The last time 25 December arrived on a Saturday was 11 years ago in 2010: â–  'Twas the date of Gold Update No. 58; today we're penning No. 632; â–  The price of Gold then was 1379; today 'tis 1810, (+31%) â–  The U.S. money supply ("M2" basis) then was $8.9 trillion; today 'tis $21.6 trillion, (+2.4x) â–  The supply of Gold then was 173.7 tonnes; today 'tis 202.8 tonnes, (+17%). Query, (courtesy of the "Fun With Numbers Dept."): Given across these past 11 years the +2.4x increase in the U.S. money supply, even as tempered for the duly noted +17% increase in the supply of Gold itself, ought its price nonetheless now be 2747? After all, currency debasement is the ultimate, primary driver of price, lagging as 'tis been. Further by the above opening Gold Scoreboard which comprehensively accounts for 41 years of currency debasement, more than double present price is Gold's valuation today of 4030! Thus analogous in reprising the infamous query of immortal football coach Vince Lombardi: "What da hell's goin' on out dere??" 'Course, you regular readers of The Gold Update know exactly what's goin' on out dere. 'Tis "The Age of the Shiny Object". Why purchase Gold -- as stated just +31% from this day of days 11 years ago -- when by merely owning the S&P 500 itself you've recorded a gain over same of +276%? Better still, how about your cryptocrap with its gains of +∞%? But wait, there's more: How are those NFTs workin' out for ya? (We think of them ultimately as "non-fundable tokens"). Then, too, is "The M Word" crowd: "Churn it and burn it, baby!" Or as Carly Simon might have sung it from back in '71: "Manipulation..." Regardless, with the S&P now at an all-time "Santa Claus Rally" closing high of 4726 (thank you record level of stock buybacks), Stoopid is sleeping securely because should the market dip from here, it always comes back, right? Arithmetically that's been undeniably true. Undeniably true as well by its historical track is the S&P's price/earnings ratio (our "live" read now 49.5x) having always returned to its median (at present 20.4x since the Index's inception nearly 65 years ago on 04 March 1957). So here's the crux: we've already accounted that year-over-year earnings' increases from a "shutdown 2020" to an "open 2021" were not sufficient enough to materially boost the "E" of the P/E such as to mitigate the ever-rocket-boosted "P". Therefore: the next reversion of the P/E to its 20.4x median essentially requires a move of the S&P from today's 4726 level down to 1948, (i.e. a -58.8% "dip"). But Stoopid worries not: "Been there, done that, it always comes back." Even as this time 'round rates rise, in turn ramping up that variably-priced interest on Stoopid's fully drawn credit cards. "Got Gold?" For which there is some good news, both aft and ahead. â–  Aft - Whilst during each of this past Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday Gold dealt with dilly-dallying 'round as usual in the 1780s, price finally saw its way clear to close on Thursday above 1800, its first weekly settle north of said number since that ending 19 November. â–  Ahead - Per this missive's title, 'tis time for Gold's annual finale rally, (our now pointing that out meaning it shan't occur). But it being a festive day, let's stay positive as traditionally is Gold's wont through the final five trading days of the year. For as the following table displays, Gold during this stint has risen in 17 of the 20 completed years thus far this millennium. We thus anticipate that for this 21st year of the 21st century, Gold shall be higher in a week's time than today's 1810 level: That is a statistical gift. Now here's one that is technical: The above graphic depicts Gold's daily "price oscillator" (a mainstay of the website's Market Rhythms page) during 2021's fourth quarter-to-date. The rightmost wee blue nub just crossed to positive, the trader's signal thus being to get Long Gold. The prior 12 such Long signals (dating back to 27 March 2020) saw upside price follow-throughs averaging as much as +77 points which in that vacuum from 1810 would be to 1887, the more conservative median being +31 points to 1841. No guarantees 'natch, but nicely on time to synch with Gold's annual finale rally should it come to pass. Meanwhile, unsurpassed for better than three years until just now is the current level of the Economic Barometer, which with but a week to run in 2021 saw this past week's set of 13 incoming metrics move the Baro to its highest oscillative level since 31 July 2018. Yes, there were a few weak links in the data: Q3's Current Account Deficit sagged to its worst level since Q3 2006; and although the quarter's final read on Gross Domestic Product increased to an annualized "growth" rate of +2.3%, that was more than double-mitigated by the party-pooper Chain Deflator being finalized at a +6.0% "growth" rate. (For you WestPalmBeachers down there, that basically means there is no real GDP "growth", but rather "stagflation"; look it up). Too, increases slowed in November's Personal Income and Spending. But highlighted were improvements in November's New and Existing Home Sales, Durable Orders and (not surprising should you follow the Baro) the Conference Board's Leading (i.e. lagging) Indicators. 'Course the real stinker was the Fed's favoured inflation read of Core Personal Consumption Expenditures coming in at an annualized pace of +6.0%. But, perhaps folks "just don't get it yet" given the level of Consumer Confidence (also per the Conference Board) rising in December to a five-month high. Here's the whole view: With respect to the Baro's having re-attained the noted 2018 level, 'twas after that the S&P 500 then declined into the year's Christmas Eve by -16.5%. Not that history shall repeat same going into next year: we anticipate worse -- far worse -- either by our "Look Ma, No Earnings!" crash (per the aforementioned P/E assessment), and/or by Federal Reserve Vice Chair Nominee Lael "The Brain" Brainard's "Climate Change!" crash. Also there's now ever-increasing amount of "Oh My! Omicron!" Still, upward economic gains along with increasing inflation strains both serve justice for the Fed to commence raising its Bank's Funds rate as early as 26 Jan. Which in turn means you'll have somewhere else to park your dough when the stock market doth over the cliff go. Get ready for "The Return of the Savings Account!" In theatres next Spring. 'Course far better than that, again: "Got Gold?" And don't forget Silver too! All so stated, New York FedPrez John "It's All Good" Williams looks to the Fed's rate rises as an economic positive -- which to his credit -- has historically synched with the beginning of higher interest rates. And perhaps more costly money can be withstood, Dow Jones Newswires this past week having referred to U.S. household wealth as "vast". Indeed per a year-old survey from the Fed, the median StateSide household wealth level is $122,000. (Admittedly, we did not dig sufficiently deep into the data to divulge if that includes proceeds from the aforementioned fully-drawn credit cards). Next let's fully draw our two-panel graphic of Gold's daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and the 10-day Market Profile on the right. Especially encouraging therein are Gold's "Baby Blues" penetrating up through their 0% axis in confirming the regression trend having rotated to positive. And the Profile shows the most dominant trading level of the past two weeks as (no surprise) 1787: With the same drill for Silver, we see her "Baby Blues" (below left) in accelerating ascent, albeit the low 23s may be a sticky wicket there. Still, her Profile (below right) appears supportive for the mid-to-lower 22s, (and happy winkies to you too there, Sister Silver): Time to wrap it up from here with this note: it again appears The World Elites' Economic Forum in Davos is being "deferred", the great convening over The Great Reset to instead take place toward early summer. Bit of an economic inflow delay there for little ole Switzerland, but we have it on well-vetted authority they'll manage. The small alpine nation may rank just 135th by size and 101st by population. But it ranks seventh in total Gold holdings and far and away first in per capita Gold wealth: there is one tonne of Gold for every 8,322 people which (in sparing you the math) is $7,672 per Swiss resident. (Italy is a distant second at $2,589). "And Season's Greetings to you, mmb!" Thank you, Squire, and our very best to you 'n yours, all the little Squires down the line, and absolutely as well to our star readers right 'round the world! Everyone take care, and don't forget the real star: Gold! Cheers! ...m... www.deMeadville.com www.TheGoldUpdate.com

Santa Claus is coming to town! What will he give gold: a gift or a rod? During the holiday week, not much happens in the marketplace. Investors focus on two things right now: whether Democrats will be able to pass Biden’s spending bill in the face of Senator Joe Manchin’s opposition, and whether the coronavirus Omicron variant will trigger new restrictions and hamper economic growth. After all, this strain has already become the dominant one in the US, but its effects are not yet known. Like most of 2021, gold has been rubbing against $1,800 this week but did not have the strength to permanently rise above this level. Despite a surge in inflation and very low real interest rates, the yellow metal didn’t rally. Thus, we could say that gold was rather naughty this year and doesn’t deserve gifts from Santa. However, maybe it’s not gold’s fault, but our too high expectations? After all, gold had to compete with cryptocurrencies and industrial metals (or commodities in general), both of which performed exceptionally well during periods of high inflation. Despite all the Fed’s hawkish rhetoric and tapering of quantitative easing, gold didn’t break down. Hence, it all depends on the perspective. The same applies to historical analyses and forecasts for 2022. The bears compare the current situation with the 2011-2013 period. The 2020 peak looked like the 2011 peak. Thus, after a period of consolidation, we could see a big decline, just as it happened in 2013. On the other hand, gold bulls prefer to compare today with 2015, as we are only a few months away from the Fed’s interest rate hikes. As a reminder, gold bottomed in December 2015, so the hope is that we will see another bottom soon, followed by an upward move. In other words, the bears believe that the replay of the “taper tantrum” is still ahead of us, while the bulls claim that the worst is already behind us.   Implications for Gold Who is right? Of course, me! But seriously: both sides make valid points. Contrary to 2013, the current tapering was well telegraphed and well received by the markets. Thus, the worst can indeed be already behind us. Especially that the 2020 economic crisis was very deep, but also very short, so everything was very condensed. I mean: the Great Recession lasted one and a half years, while the Great Lockdown lasted only two months. The first taper tantrum occurred in 2013, while the first hike in the federal funds rate – at the end of 2015. We won’t wait that long now, so the period of downward pressure on gold prices stemming from expectations of the Fed’s tightening cycle will be limited. Having said that, gold bears highlight an important point: real interest rates haven’t normalized yet. As the chart below shows, although nominal bond yields have rebounded somewhat from the August 2020 bottom, real rates haven’t followed. The reason was, of course, the surge in inflation. However, if inflation eases, inflation-adjusted rates will go up. Additional risk here is that the Fed will surprise the markets on a hawkish side. The bottom line is that Santa Claus may bring gold a rod this time. Although gold’s reaction to the recent FOMC meeting was solid, the overall performance of the yellow metal this month is worse compared to the historically strong action in December. I don’t expect a similarly strong downward move as in 2013, but real interest rates could normalize somewhat in 2022, given the upcoming Fed’s tightening cycle and possible peak in inflation. The level of indebtedness will limit the scope of the move, but it won’t change the direction. Anyway, whether you are a gold bull or a gold bear, I wish you a truly merry and golden Christmas (or just winter holidays)! Let the profits shine, even if gold won’t! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

USDJPY breaks higher The US dollar inched higher after November’s core PCE jumped to 4.7%. A break above the supply area near 114.20 indicates that the bulls have gained the upper hand. As sellers rush to the exit, the pair may enjoy solid support above the former resistance at 114.05. An overbought RSI has temporarily limited the initial breakout range. After a short accumulation phase, the bulls may have an unobstructed path towards the psychological level of 115.00. That is a major hurdle right under the previous peak. USDCAD retreats to daily support The Canadian dollar bounces back as GDP growth gained traction in October. The US dollar is struggling for support after its tentative break above the August high at 1.2950. A retreat below 1.2900 has led traders to dump leveraged positions. The pair is testing the daily support at 1.2760 which lies along the 30-day moving average. And this makes it an area of interest for the bulls to attempt a rebound. 1.2920 is a fresh resistance ahead. A deeper correction may send the greenback to 1.2650 near December’s lows. US 100 completes V-shaped recovery The Nasdaq 100 continues to recover as improved economic data outweigh covid concerns. The index has met solid buying interest near 15600. This used to be a supply zone from last September. Since then it has recouped losses from the recent liquidation. The RSI’s overbought situation may cause a brief pullback while short-term traders take profit. 16170 is the closest support and 15850 is another layer of defense. On the upside, a break above 16460 could extend the rally to the all-time high at 16770 and beyond.

S&P 500 and risk-on assets continued rallying, pausing only before the close. Santa Claus delivered, and the final trading week of 2021 is here. With the dollar pausing and VIX at 18 again, we‘re certainly enjoying better days while clouds gather on the horizon – Thursday‘s inability of financials to keep intraday gains while yields rose, is but one albeit short-term sign. The Fed is still accomodative (just see the balance sheet expansion for Dec – this is really tapering), didn‘t get into the headlines with fresh hawkish statements, and inflation expectations keep rising from subdued levels. Importantly, bonds prices aren‘t taking it on the chin, and the dollar hasn‘t made much progress since late Nov. Both tech and value are challenging their recent highs, and the ratio of stocks trading above their 200-day moving average, is improving. The same for new highs new lows – the market breadth indicators are picking up. We haven‘t seen the stock market top yet – the rickety ride higher isn‘t over, Santa Claus rally goes on, and my 2022 outlook with targets discussed that a week ago. Precious metals are extending gains, and aren‘t yet raging ahead – the picture is one of welcome strength returning across the board. The same goes for crude oil finally rising solidly above $72 as the omicron fears are receding in light of fresh incoming data including South African policies. It‘s only copper that‘s now reflecting the prospects of real economy slowdown. At the same time, the crypto rebound last week served as a confirmation of broad risk-on advance. Still more to come, as per Thursday‘s article title. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 is within spitting distance of ATHs, and the bulls haven‘t said the last word in spite of the approaching need to take a rest. It‘s rally on, for now. Credit Markets HYG has finally overcome the Sep highs, but its vulnerability at current levels is best viewed from the point of view of LQD underperformance. Investment grade corporate bonds could have been trading higher compared to the progress made by TLT. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver are looking up, and so are miners – the upswing isn‘t overheated one bit, and can go on as we keep consolidating with an increasingly bullish bias. Crude Oil Crude oil once again extended gains, and even if oil stocks are a little lagging, the medium-term bullish bias in black gold remains. The path of least resistance is once again up. Copper Copper at least closed unchanged – the fresh steep rally indeed seems more than quite a few weeks ahead. But the table for further gains is set. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are entering the final trading week of 2021 in good shape. The rising tide of liquidity is still lifting all boats in a rather orderly way. Summary Thursday brought a proper finish to the Christmas week, and we‘re not staring at a disastrous finish to 2021 across the board. Short-term extended, but overall very positive bond market performance is aligned, and we can look for positive entry to 2022 in stocks, precious metals, oil, copper and cryptos alike. Shrinking global liquidity, no infrastructure bill, and consolidating dollar complete the backdrop of challenges that would make themselves heard well before Q2 2022 arrives. I hope you had Merry Christmas once again, and will also enjoy the relatively smooth ride while it lasts – 2022 will be still a good year, but with its fair share of corrections. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

AUDUSD falls back for support The Australian dollar pulls back as risk assets tread water amid low liquidity. A break above the previous high at 0.7220 reveals a strong bullish bias. However, the RSI’s repeatedly overbought situation may have prompted short-term buyers to take some chips off the table. In turn, this left price action vulnerable to retracement. 0.7200 is the closest support. Its breach would trigger a deeper correction towards 0.7120. A close above 0.7250 may resume the reversal and carry the Aussie to the daily resistance at 0.7360. USDCHF tests consolidation range The US dollar softens over weaker Treasury yields. The pair’s latest rebound has met aggressive selling at the upper bound of the consolidation range near 0.9250. That is a sign of lingering bearish pressure. The greenback is testing the lower bound near 0.9160. Range traders were eager to buy the dip as the RSI ventured into the oversold zone. 0.9210 is an intermediate hurdle leading to the upper limit where a breakout could trigger a bullish reversal towards 0.9350. Otherwise, a drop below 0.9160 may send the pair to 0.9100. EURJPY breaks higher The Japanese yen weakened after Japan’s jobless rate rose to 2.8% in November. The long side has gained the upper hand after they pushed above 129.60. A bullish MA cross following a brief consolidation indicates an acceleration in the upward momentum. A break above the psychological level of 130.00 would set 130.60 as the next target, clearing the path for a rally to 131.30. An overbought RSI may cause a temporary pullback. 129.20 from the previous supply zone has become a fresh support.

High inflation won’t go away in 2022. Good for gold. However, it is likely to continue to climb and reach its peak. That sounds a bit worse for gold. If 2021 was tough for you, I don’t recommend reading Nostradamus’ predictions for the next year. This famous French astrologer saw inflation, hunger, and much more coming in 2022: So high the price of wheat, That man is stirred His fellow man to eat in his despair Yuk! So, life is about to get a little more complicated: we must now avoid becoming infected and being eaten by our fellow citizens! If you are interested in how cannibalism will affect the gold market, I’m afraid that I don’t have adequate data. Anyway, if you end up in the pot together with vegetables and your colleagues, gold’s performance probably won’t be your top priority. Hence, let’s focus on inflation. Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released the latest data on the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. This measure of inflation surged 5.7% in the 12 months ended in November, which was the fastest increase since July 1982. Meanwhile, as the chart below shows, the core index, which excludes energy and food, rose 4.7%. It was the highest jump since February 1989. This is very important, as it shows that inflation is not elevated merely by rising energy prices. Instead, it’s more broad-based, which can make inflation more lasting. Indeed, there are strong reasons to expect that high inflation will stay with us in 2022. As the chart below shows, the shelter index – the biggest CPI component – has been rising recently, which should move the whole index up. In other words, surging home prices could translate into higher rents, supporting consumer inflation. Additionally, the Producer Price Index has also been rallying this year. The final demand index rose 9.6% on an annual basis in November, the largest advance since 12-month data was first calculated in late 2010. Moreover, the commodity index surged 23%, and it was the highest jump since November 1974. All this indicates that inflationary pressure remains strong. Implications for Gold To be clear, inflation will eventually peak, and this will probably happen in 2022. This is because a one-time helicopter drop (the surge in the money supply) leads to a one-time jump in the price level. However, inflation is like toothpaste. It’s easy to get it out, but it’s difficult to get it back in again. To use another metaphor, if you wait with your actions until you see the whites of the eyes of a tiger, you can be eaten (sorry for being monothematic today!). This was exactly the Fed’s strategy with the inflationary tiger for most of 2021. Yes, the US central bank accelerated tapering of quantitative easing in December, but it remains behind the curve (or, to continue the metaphor, it’s still holding the tiger by the tail). What does it all mean for the gold market? High inflation should support gold prices. The expectations of a more hawkish Fed probably prevent a big rally, but ultra-low real interest rates are supportive of the yellow metal. However, what is one of my biggest worries for the next year (except for the perspective of being eaten by hungry neighbors) is how gold will react to the peak in inflation. Although inflation will stay elevated, it won’t rise indefinitely. When it peaks, real interest rates could go up, negatively affecting the yellow metal. Of course, one would say that the peak of inflation would be accompanied by a more dovish Fed, so disinflation doesn’t have to hurt gold, just as rising inflation didn’t make it shine. However, this is not so simple, and if inflation stays above 5%, the Fed could still feel obligated to act and bring inflation to its 2% target. Anyway, US monetary policy (together with fiscal policy) will be tighter compared to 2020 and to other major countries, which (together with a likely peak in inflation) creates a rather challenging macroeconomic environment for gold in 2022 (at least until worries about the negative consequences of the Fed’s tightening cycle emerge). If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

EURUSD tests important resistance The US dollar struggles as the Omicron scare subsides. The pair has been stuck in a narrow range between 1.1230 and 1.1360, because of a lack of liquidity and a catalyst. Following a bounce from 1.1260 price action is testing the upper band of the horizontal consolidation. A bullish breakout would pop up volatility as sellers rush for the exit. An extended rally would set 1.1450 as the next target. On the downside, a fall below 1.1260 may prolong the sideways action for a few more days. NZDUSD consolidates recent gains The New Zealand dollar softens over a limited year-end risk appetite. The latest surge above 0.6830 has put the bears on the defensive. Intraday traders took profit after the RSI showed overextension. The current flag-shaped consolidation could be an opportunity for the bulls to regroup and catch their breath. The demand zone around 0.6760 is a major level to support the rebound. On the upside, 0.6840 on the 30-day moving average is the closest resistance. And its breach may trigger a broader rally towards 0.6920. XAUUSD seeks support Gold edged higher as the US dollar slipped across the board. A close above the supply zone around 1815 is a short-term confirmation that sentiment favors the upside. A bullish MA cross on the hourly chart indicates that the recovery could be picking up steam. Above 1820, 1840 would be the target when momentum makes its way back into the market. In the meantime, buyers may see a retracement to 1803 as an opportunity to buy the dip after the RSI returned to the neutrality area. 1790 is a second level of support.

Broad S&P 500 rally is spilling over to precious metals and commodities – Santa Claus leaves no stone unturned, apparently. Not that yields or the dollar would move much yesterday – it‘s the omicron response relief (thus far. yet APT has risen sharply to counter the bullish and wildly profitable oil message) coupled with the yesterday mentioned market friendly Fed: (…) The Fed is still accomodative (just see the balance sheet expansion for Dec – this is really tapering), didn‘t get into the headlines with fresh hawkish statements, and inflation expectations keep rising from subdued levels. Even though junk bonds retreated from intraday highs, the rally isn‘t over yet – VIX remaining around 18 is the best that the stock bulls can hope for today (i.e. a sluggish day still retaining bullish bias). Financials and industrials had a good day, but consumer discretionaries to staples ratio leaves more than a bit to be desired. The same goes for the financials to utilities ratio. Yes, the horizon is darkening, but further gains for weeks to months to come, still lie ahead. Remember, the topping process is about fewer and fewer sectors pulling their weight, about the market generals not being followed by the troops in the coming advance. We‘re not quite there yet. The Fed didn‘t really taper much in Dec, thus the jubilant close to 2021 across the board. The compressed yield curve would eventually invert – regardless of the current levels of inflation, the GDP growth can still support higher stock prices. Precious metals and commodities would though become an increasingly appealing proposition as I‘m not looking for the Fed to be able to break inflation. The tightening risks are clearly seen in market bets via compressed yields, so they‘ll attempt to not only talk a good game – they will act, and the risks of breaking something (real economy) would grow. That‘s the message from Treasuries – hawkish monetary policy mistake is feared and increasingly expected. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 market breadth again improved – the increasing participation shows that the bull run isn‘t clearly over. And it also reveals that this isn‘t yet the time to expect a new correction. Credit Markets HYG stalled a little, but doesn‘t look to have definitely peaked. One look at LQD reveals the nuanced risk-off turn yesterday, which might not interfere with further stock market gains today though). Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver paused, but I‘m treating it as a daily pause in an otherwise developing uptrend. Once the inflation expectations stop being as steady as they had been yesterday, the metals will like that. Crude Oil Crude oil is strongly up, and oil stocks confirm. The $78 zone comes next, and could take a few days to be reached. Copper Copper still hasn‘t arrived at true fireworks – but the long consolidation is being resolved in a bullish way (of course). Broader commodities are showing that the path of least resistance is higher in the red metal as well. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are foretelling stiffer headwinds than had been the case recently. I don‘t think this is a start of a genuine downtrend. Summary Santa Claus rally naturally goes on, and yesterday‘s steep gains are likely to be followed with deceleration today – at least in stocks. Precious metals and commodities are catching up, and we‘re looking at a very positive close to 2021 across the board. The same goes for optimistic entry to 2022 in stocks, precious metals, oil, copper and cryptos alike – in Bitcoin though, I would like to see today‘s lows hold, and Ethereum to spring higher faster than Bitcoin. On a very short-term basis, S&P 500 and oil are extended today, and some trepidation shouldn‘t be surprising. The medium-term trends remain unchanged, and lead higher. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

As the US and global markets rattle around over the past 60+ days, many traders have failed to identify an incredible opportunity setting up in both Gold and Silver. Historically, Silver is extremely undervalued compared to Gold right now. In fact, Gold has continued to stay above $1675 over the past 12+ months while Silver has collapsed from highs near $30 to a current price low near $22 – a -26% decline. Many traders use the Gold/Silver Ratio as a measure of price comparison between these two metals. Both Gold and Silver act as a hedge at times when market fear rises. But Gold is typically a better long-term store of value compared to Silver. Silver often reacts more aggressively at times of great fear or uncertainty in the global markets and often rises much faster than Gold in percentage terms when fear peaks. Understanding the Gold/Silver ratio The Gold/Silver ratio is simply the price of Gold divided by the price of Silver. This creates a ratio of the price action (like a spread) that allows us to measure if Gold is holding its value better than Silver or not. If the ratio falls, then the price of Silver is advancing faster than the price of Gold. If the ratio rises, then the price of Gold is advancing faster than the price of Silver. Right now, the Gold/Silver ratio is above 0.80 – well above a historically normal level, which is usually closer to 0.64. I believe the current ratio level suggests both Gold and Silver are poised for a fairly big upward price trend in 2022 and beyond. This may become an exaggerated upward price trend if the global market deleveraging and revaluation events rattle the markets in early 2022. Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don't miss the next opportunity! I expect to see the Gold/Silver ratio fall to levels below 0.75 before July/August 2022 as both Gold and Silver begin to move higher in Q1:2022. Some event will likely shake investor confidence in early 2022, causing precious metals to move 15% to 25% higher initially. After that initial move is complete, further fallout related to the deleveraging throughout the globe, post-COVID, may prompt an even bigger move in metals later on in 2022 and into 2023. COVID Disrupted The 8~9 Year Appreciation/Depreciation Cycle Trends In May 2021, I published an article suggesting the US Dollar may slip below 90 while the US and global markets shift into a Deflationary cycle that lasts until 2028~29 (Source: The Technical Traders). I still believe the markets will enter this longer-term cycle and shift away from the broad reflation trade that has taken place over the past 24+ months – it is just a matter of time. If my research is correct, the disruption created by the COVID virus may result in a violent reversion event that could alter how the global markets react to the deleveraging and revaluation process that is likely to take place. I suggest the COVID virus event may have disrupted global market trends because the excess capital poured into the global markets prompted a very strong rise in price levels throughout the world in real estate, commodities, food, technology, and many other everyday products. The opposite type of trend would have likely happened if the COVID event had taken place without the excessive capital deployed into the global markets. Demand would have diminished. Price levels would have fallen. Demand for commodities and other technology would have fallen too. That didn't happen. The opposite type of global market trend took place, and prices rose faster than anyone expected. Markets Tend To Revert After Extreme Events As much as we may want to see these trends continue forever, any trader knows that markets tend to revert after extreme market trends or events. In fact, there are a whole set of traders that focus on these “reversion events.” They wait for extreme events to occur, then attempt to trade the “reversion to a mean” event in price action. My research suggests the COVID virus event may have created a hyper-cycle event between early 2020 and December 2021 (roughly 24 months). My research also suggests a global market deleveraging/revaluation event may be starting in early 2022. If my research is correct, the recent lows in Gold and Silver will continue to be tested in early 2022, but Gold and Silver will start to move much higher as fear and concern start to rattle the markets. As asset prices revert and continue to search for proper valuation levels, Gold and Silver may continue to rally in various phases through 2028~2030. Initially, I expect a 50% to 60% rally in Silver, targeting the $33.50 to $36.00 price level. For SILJ, Junior Silver Miners, I expect an initial move above $20 (representing a 60%+ rally), followed by a follow-through rally targeting the $25.00 level (more than 215% from recent lows). I believe the lack of focus on precious metals over the past 12+ months may have created a very unusual and efficient dislocation in the price for Silver compared to Gold. This setup may present very real opportunities for Silver to rally much faster than Gold over the next 24+ months – possibly longer. If my research is correct, the Junior Silver Miners ETF, SILJ, presents a very good opportunity for profits. Want to learn more about the movements of Gold, Silver, and their Miners? Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals. If you need technically proven trading and investing strategies using ETFs to profit during market rallies and to avoid/profit from market declines, be sure to join me at TEP – Total ETF Portfolio. Pay particular attention to what is quickly becoming my favorite strategy for income, growth, and retirement - The Technical Index & Bond Trader. Have a great day!

I find it interesting that so much speculation related to the US Federal Reserve drives investor concern and trends. In my opinion, the US Federal Reserve has been much more accommodating for the global economy after the 2008-09 US Housing Market crash. The new US Bank Stress Tests and Capital Requirements have allowed the US to move away from risk factors that may currently plague the global markets. What do I mean by this statement? US Fed Continues To Maintain Extremely Accommodative Monetary Policy Over the past 12+ years, after the 2008-09 US Housing Market collapse, the US Federal Reserve has acted to support the US and global economy while the US Congress and US Federal Reserve have acted to build a stronger foundation for US banking and financial institutions. The most important aspect of this is the Capital Requirements that require an operating US bank to hold a minimum amount of reserve capital (Source: Federal Reserve). The US Federal Reserve installed this program to prevent US banks from over-leveraging their liabilities based on the 2008-09 Housing Market Crisis lessons. Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! There are still risks associated with a complete global economic collapse – where consumers, banking institutions, and economic activity grinds to a halt because of some external or unknown factor. Yet, the risks of a US-based collapse based on excessive Banking or other financial institution liabilities are somewhat limited in today's US Economy. Although, globally, the risks have accelerated over the past 12+ years while the US Federal Reserve maintained a very accommodative monetary policy. Historical US Federal Reserve Actions Let's review some of the most significant US Federal Reserve actions over the past 25 years. Early/Mid-1990s: The Fed raised the FFR from 3.0% to 6.5% to 7.0% as the DOT COM Rally continued to build strength. 1998/1999: The Fed dropped the FFR to 4.0% as the DOT COM bubble became frothy and started to fracture/burst. Early 2000: The Fed raised the FFR from 4.0% to 6.86% over just five months, pushing the cost of borrowing above 7.5%~8.5% in the open market. Late 2000/Early 2001: The September 2001 Terrorist Attack on the US pushed the Fed to lower the FFR to 1.0% by December 2002. Before the 9/11 attack, the Fed lowered the FFR after the DOT COM bubble burst rattled the US economy and output. 2004/2006: The Fed raised the FFR from 1.0% to 5.5% (more than 550%) while the US Housing Market boom cycle pushed the US economy into overdrive. This was the biggest FFR rate increase since the 1958-1960 rate increase (from 0.25% to 4.0% - more than 1600%) or the 1961-1969 rate increase (from 0.50% to 9.75% - more than 1950%). 2007/2008: The Fed decreased the FFR from 5.5% to 0.05 (Dec 2009), effectively setting up a 0% interest rate while the US attempted to recover from the 2008-09 Housing Market Crisis. 2015/2020: the Fed attempted to raise the FFR from 0.08% to 2.40% as the US economy transitioned into a strong bullish breakout trend. When the US markets collapsed in early 2020 because of the COVID-19 virus, the Fed moved interest rates back to near 0% and have kept them there ever since. The deep FFR discounts/rates that started after the 1999/2000 DOT COM/9-11 events pushed foreign markets to borrow cheap US Dollars as a disconnect of capital costs and a growing foreign market economy allowed certain economic functions to continue. Borrowing cheap US Dollars while deploying that capital in foreign economies returning 4x to 10x profits allowed many foreign companies, individuals, and governments to build extremely dangerous debt levels – very quickly. (Source: ST Louis FED) Now, let's get down to the core differences between pre-1990 and post-1990 US Fed actions and global economy functions. US Fed Added Rocket Fuel To An Already Accelerating Global Economy Before 1985, foreign markets were struggling to gain their footing in the global economy. Larger global economies, like the US, Japan, Europe, and Canada, could outsource manufacturing, supplies, and labor into foreign nations that provided a strategic cost advantage. After 1994 or so, after the Asian Currency Crisis settled, the growth of manufacturing and labor in China/Asia started booming at an exponential rate. This prompted a 2x to 5x growth factor in many Asian nations over 10+ years. The 9-11 terrorist attacks briefly disrupted this trend, but it restarted quickly after 1994~1995. This high-speed growth phase in China/Asia after 1999 created a massive demand for credit and expansion as Asian consumers and economies grew at exponential rates from 1997 to now. The US Fed inadvertently promoted a global growth phase that resulted in the fastest global economic increase in history. Multiple foreign nations were able to take advantage of cheap US Dollars. At the same time, the US Fed acted to support the recovery of the US economy after 9-11 and the 2008-09 Housing/Credit crisis. Those cheap US Dollars continued after the COVID-19 turmoil in early 2020 and likely pushed already at-risk debtors over the edge as bond rates have started to price extensive risk factors. The result of these crisis events and the US Federal Reserve's continued easy monetary policy has been the fastest growth of assets the planet has seen in over 80 years. Not only have global economies grown in a parabolic phase, but the US stock market has also moved higher and higher after the 2010 bottom and the 2015-2016 shift towards higher US corporation earnings/revenues. Once the COVID-19 virus event hit in early 2020, the US Fed moved rates back to near 0% - supplying a nearly unlimited amount of rocket fuel for the global markets (again). The problem this time was the global COVID shutdowns essentially took the spark away from the fuel (capital). Now, we are waiting for the US Fed statements to close out 2021. I'll offer this simple hint to help you prepare for what's next – more volatility, more big trends, and more deleveraging throughout the global markets. In Part II of this research article, I'll share my thoughts on what I expect from the US Fed and what I hope for in 2022 and beyond. Want to learn more about how I trade and invest in the markets? Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals. If you need technically proven trading and investing strategies using ETFs to profit during market rallies and to avoid/profit from market declines, be sure to join me at TEP - Total ETF Portfolio. Have a great day! Chris VermeulenChief Market Strategist

S&P 500 feels like hanging by the fingernails – tech down and value retreating intraday. Correction of prior steep upswing is here – the bears will try some more, but I‘m not looking for them to get too far. The signs are there to knock the bulls somewhat down, and fresh ATHs look to really have to wait till next week. Checking up on the VIX, financials and consumer discretionaries confirms the odds of the bears stepping in today, and perhaps also tomorrow (depending upon today‘s close). The repelled HYG downswing likewise doesn‘t represent a significant risk-off turn (yet) – instead, we appear to be on the doorstep of another rotation, and its depth would be determined by how well tech is able to hold near current levels. Looking at precious metals, commodities and cryptos, the sellers of this risk-on rally have good odds of closing in the black for today. Earliest signs of stabilization would come from bonds, tech and cryptos – that‘s where I‘m mostly looking today. Keeping in mind the big picture – all eyes on upcoming Fed balance sheet data: (…) The Fed didn‘t really taper much in Dec, thus the jubilant close to 2021 across the board. The compressed yield curve would eventually invert – regardless of the current levels of inflation, the GDP growth can still support higher stock prices. Precious metals and commodities would though become an increasingly appealing proposition as I‘m not looking for the Fed to be able to break inflation. The tightening risks are clearly seen in market bets via compressed yields, so they‘ll attempt to not only talk a good game – they will act, and the risks of breaking something (real economy) would grow. That‘s the message from Treasuries – hawkish monetary policy mistake is feared and increasingly expected. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 saw a shot across the bow, and it remains to be seen whether the bears take advantage of a promising position to strike later today. Odds are they would at least try. Credit Markets HYG‘s hammer-style candle on rising volume doesn‘t bode well for today. Stabilization in junk bonds would be a most welcome sign once it arrives. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver aren‘t at all well positioned in the short-term – higher yields perhaps accompanied by consolidating inflation expectations, provide the bears with an opportunity. Crude Oil Crude oil is likewise stalling, but not too vulnerable unless fresh omicron fears return to the headlines. The $78 zone indeed looks to take a few days to be reached – I‘m still not looking at this week really. Copper Copper is taking a cautious stance – cautious, not panicky. Building a base not too far from yesterday‘s lows, would be most constructive now. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are feeling the pinch, and the Ethereum underperformance has foretold stiffer headwinds than had been the case recently. Genuine downtrend hasn‘t yet developed – the bulls are being tested as we speak. Summary Santa Claus rally is getting the announced reprieve – the day of decision how far it reaches, is today. Unless bonds (I‘m looking at the junk spectrum mainly), tech and cryptos weaken inordinately much, today‘s move would come in the sideways consolidation category. Odds for that are slightly better than a coin toss, but regardless, I‘m looking for a positive first day of 2022 trading to help make up for end of this week‘s headwinds. It‘s also positive that oil remains well bid above $75.50, and copper above $4.40. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  2021 was bad for gold. Unfortunately, 2022 doesn’t look any better, especially at the beginning. The end, however, gives the yellow metal some hope… Bye, bye 2021! It definitely wasn’t a year of gold. As the chart below shows, the yellow metal lost 5% of its value over the last twelve months, declining from $1,887.60 on December 30, 2020, to $1,794.25 on December 29, 2021. Thus, the gold bulls won’t miss 2021, I guess. What about me? Well, I correctly predicted in January that “gold’s performance in 2021 could be worse than last year”. However, I expected more bullish behavior. I thought that rising inflation would be more supportive of gold prices. I’m fully aware that gold is not a perfect inflation hedge, but historical analysis suggests that high and accelerating inflation should be positive for gold prices. After all, inflation lowers the real interest rates, the key fundamental factor in the gold market. However, rising inflation has prompted the Fed to tighten its monetary policy and speed up the tapering of its quantitative easing. Expectations of hikes in the federal funds rate in 2022 also strengthened. In consequence, as the chart below shows, bond yields rose, especially those short- and medium-term, creating downward pressure on gold prices. Thus, we’ve learned two important lessons in 2021: don’t just count on inflation, and don’t fight with the (hawkish) Fed. As you can see, bond yields haven’t returned to their pre-pandemic level yet. Although they don’t have to fully recover, they do have room for further increases. The issue here is that when inflation peaks and disinflation starts, inflation expectations could decline, boosting the real interest rates. Actually, market-based inflation expectations already peaked in November, as shown in the chart below. This indicates that worries about inflation had calmed and investors had regained some confidence in the US central bank’s ability to contain upward price pressure.   Implications for Gold Will 2022 be better for gold than 2021? It’s possible, but I’m not an optimist. I mean here: macroeconomic conditions will turn more bearish for gold. Despite the spreading of Omicron variant of coronavirus, 2022 could mark the end of the global Covid-19 epidemic with a full economic recovery and a return to normal conditions. Fiscal policy will tighten, while the Fed will adopt a more hawkish monetary policy than in 2021. Supply shocks are easing, so inflation may peak, while real interest rates go up further. Moreover, the US dollar may strengthen against the euro, as the ECB is slower with its monetary policy tightening. On the other hand, there are also some factors that could support gold prices. In 2021, GDP rebounded greatly after the economic crisis of 2020, and financial markets also recovered robustly. 2022 may be more challenging for economic growth and the financial sector, though. One thing is the base effect, while another is central banks’ policy normalization and rising interest rates. With massive public and private debts, the Fed’s tightening cycle could deflate asset and credit bubbles and even trigger a recession, or at least a market correction. However, there are no signs of market stress yet, so a financial crisis is not in my baseline scenario for the next year. 2023 (or even later) is a more probable timeframe. Hence, I believe that the end of 2022 may be better for gold than the beginning of the year, as mere expectations of the Fed’s tightening cycle could be replaced by worries about the consequences of interest rate hikes. Anyway, 2021 is (almost) dead. Long live 2022! I wish you a return to normalcy, shining profits and all the golden next year! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

  Omicron did a bit of a mess at the end of 2021, with oil too. Will crude oil break new price records in the New Year 2022? What do you guys reckon? Market Updates Yesterday, crude oil prices ended modestly higher after a volatile session with amplitudes increased by closing trades, as US crude inventories fell by 3.6 million barrels – more than expected – which is a positive sign for demand. Commercial crude oil reserves in the United States fell more than expected last week, recording the third consecutive significant decline on the back of strong demand, according to figures released yesterday by the US Energy Information Agency (EIA). On the other hand, the overall volatility is mainly due to the possible impact of the Omicron variant on demand; projects, commutations, as well as trips are cancelled, and more severe restrictions are put in place in Europe and China. (Source: Investing.com) The oil market continues to be tight due to the increased demand for heating oil to replace natural gas, which has become very expensive, especially in Europe; the Dutch TTF (Title Transfer Facility) benchmark dropped almost 8% to €89 there. As you may know, one third of European gas supplies come from Russia. This explains why the energy market is also keeping an eye on the Russo-Western crisis around Ukraine. Russian gas exports could be affected if tensions rise, as Russian President Vladimir Putin is due to speak on the phone with his American counterpart Joe Biden later today. I bet they won’t talk about Russian caviar (which might also be considered Russia’s original black gold). RBOB Gasoline (RBF22) Futures (Continuous contract, daily chart, logarithmic scale) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGF22) Futures (January contract, daily chart, logarithmic scale) WTI Crude Oil (CLG22) Futures (February contract, daily chart, logarithmic scale) Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

A very late Santa Rally appears to have been set up in the US markets as we close in on the end of 2021. The US markets have already started a melt-up trend – which is what I expected to happen prior to the bout of volatility over the past 30+ days. A Very Late Santa Rally Could Prompt A Powerful Move Upward A very late positive shift in the US major indexes may prompt a powerful upward price trend in early 2022. I expect that Q4:2021 earnings and revenues will continue to impress traders while the US Dollar strengthens above 95. This combination of a strong US economy with a stronger US Dollar will continue to attract foreign capital investment in US equities in early 2022. Traders won't want to miss the potential for a Q1 and Q2 rally phase in the US markets IF the US Fed stays moderately inactive throughout the first half of 2022. Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! Traders were concerned that the US Fed and Inflation would prompt a sudden shift by the US Fed. Still, I believe the new Omicron COVID virus and the shift away from hyper-inflationary trends may alter how the Fed sees the global economy in 2022. The US markets may be strengthening simply because of the additional stimulus and strong US consumer activity from the recovery/reflation trade momentum (late 2020 and almost all o 2021). The early 2022 trends may carry momentum into the first two Quarters of 2022 with slowly diminishing strength overall. Please take a minute to review our ADL Price Predictions for 2022 in this research article: The Technical Traders S&P 500 Rallying To New All-Time Highs To Close Out 2021 The S&P 500 recently rallied to new all-time highs just days before the end of 2021. This move suggests traders are shifting away from broader market concerns and starting to pay attention to the pending Q4:2021 earnings and revenue data and the 2021 Annual Data that will hit over the next 30 to 60+ days. Even though the markets are looking for any reason to spike the VIX (volatility), I believe the momentum behind this rally phase is going to continue to drive the S&P 500 up towards 5000 – or higher. My expectations are that we will see a fairly strong 5% to 8% rally in early 2022 from the 2021 end-of-year price levels. I believe the US market is attracting lots of foreign market capital as long as the US Fed does not do anything to topple the current market dynamics. NASDAQ Is Struggling To Reach New All-Time Highs, But Could Explode Higher In Early 2022 Even though the NASDAQ appears to be more volatile than the S&P500 and Dow Jones, it stands a very good chance of exploding higher in early 2022 as Q4:2021 earnings are announced, and end-of-year revenues and US economic data are presented in January/February. I expect that technology will continue to dominate trends related to how US consumers spend their time/money in 2022 – especially if we continue to go through more COVID virus waves. The sectors I'm watching in 2022 are Housing, Technology, Healthcare, Consumer Staples/Discretionary, Metals/Mining, and Retail. If there are any signs of concern in the US/Global markets, I expect to see these concerns appear in the strongest sectors right now (Consumer, Retail, Metals, Housing, and Technology). The US Fed will probably not take any severe actions in Q1:2022 and maybe talk about raising rates in Q2:2022. This means the US markets will continue to attract foreign capital, and traders need to prepare for a potentially explosive upside price trend in the NASDAQ before March 2022.

S&P 500 bulls stood their ground nicely, and the key sectors confirmed little willingness to turn the very short-term outlook more bearish than fits the little flag we‘re trading in currently – it‘s a bullish flag. Given the continued risk-off turn in bonds, the stock market setback could have been more than a tad deeper – that would be the conclusion at first glance. However, high yield corporate bonds held up much better than quality debt instruments, and that means the superficial look would have been misleading. Likewise as regards my other 2 signs out of the 3 yesterday presented ones – tech held up fine, and cryptos have practically erased yesterday‘s hesitation during today‘s premarket. The Santa Claus rally indeed hasn‘t yet run its course, and the slighly better than a coin toss odds of us not facing more than a very shallow correction, look to be materializing. As I wrote 2 days ago – What‘s Not to Love Here – we‘re entering 2022 with great open profits in both S&P 500 (entered aggressively at 4,672) and crude oil (entered with full force at $67.60). Both rides aren‘t yet over, copper is primed to catch up in the short run to the other commodities, gold is well bid at current levels, and together with silver waiting for a Fed misstep (market risk reappreciation) and inflation to start biting still some more while the real economy undergoes a soft patch (note however the very solid manufacturing data) with global liquidity remaining constrained even though the Fed didn‘t exactly taper much in Dec, and nominal yields taking a cautious and slow path towards my 2022 year end target of 1.80-2.00% on the 10-year Treasury. As I wrote prior Monday, we‘re looking at still positive 2022 returns in stocks – of course joined by commodities and precious metals. The path would be though probably a more turbulent one than was the case in 2021. We had a good year of strong gains, and I hope you have benefited. Thank you for all your appreciation and best wishes sent my way throughout all of 2021 and now by email or via Twitter – I would love to wish you a very Happy New Year – may 2022 keep bringing you happiness, success and good health. Enjoy the New Year‘s Eve celebrations, and see you again on Jan 03, 2022! Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 consolidation is still shaping up finely – and does so on solid internals. Particularly the tech resilience is a good omen. Credit Markets HYG could have indeed declined some more, but didn‘t. While I‘m not reading all too much into this signal individually, it fits the (still bullish) mozaic completed by other markets on my watch. That‘s the strength of intermarket analysis. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver got on the defensive, but the bears didn‘t get too far – and the chance they could have, wasn‘t too bad. Rising yields were though countered by the declining dollar. Crude Oil Crude oil is likely to pause today, and will rally again once risk-on returns broadly, including into credit markets. For now, backing and filling above $76 is my leading very short-term scenario – Monday though will be a fresh day. Copper Copper is pausing, but the downswing didn‘t reach far, and was bought relatively fast. More consolidation above $4.40 looks likely, and it would come with a generally bullish bias that‘s apt to surprise on the upside. Similarly to precious metals though, patience. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are staging a daily comeback, and as long as mid-Dec lows don‘t come in sight again, crypto prices can muddle through with a gently bullish bias. Summary Santa Claus isn‘t willing to give much ground, and the table is set for this nice rally to modestly continue today – somewhere more pronouncedly (S&P 500, cryptos) than elsewhere (commodities and precious metals). I‘m still looking for a positive first day of 2022 trading to help make up for end of this week‘s headwinds – it has been great that the bears couldn‘t find more strength yesterday. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

USDCHF tests daily support The US dollar softens over increased risk appetite. A drop below the lower band of the consolidation range at 0.9160 confirms a lack of interest in the greenback. The pair is testing the major demand zone around 0.9100 from the daily chart. A bearish breakout could jeopardize the pair’s rebound over the past quarter. It could also trigger a sell-off towards the psychological level of 0.9000. The bulls may be tempted to buy the dip. 0.9180 would be the first resistance to lift before they could turn the downbeat inertia around. AUDUSD consolidates gains The Australian dollar finds support from rising commodity prices. A bullish MA cross on the daily chart indicates improvement in underlying sentiment. The former supply zone between 0.7210 and 0.7220 has turned into a demand zone. Buyers may be eager to join the rally after the RSI returned to the neutrality area. 0.7290 is a fresh resistance, and a combination of profit-taking and fresh selling could temporarily weigh on the Aussie. 0.7120 is a second line of defense in case of a deeper retracement. EURGBP falls below daily support The pound outperforms the euro over diverging monetary policies. The break below the daily support at 0.8380 is an invalidation of the rebound in late November. The RSI’s repeatedly oversold situation has attracted some buying interest, but not enough to sustain a meaningful bounce. 0.8420 is now a fresh resistance. And only its breach could prompt sellers to cover. On the downside, 0.8365 is a fragile support. A breakout would further deteriorate sentiment and send the euro to February 2020’s lows near 0.8280.

Last week I shared with you some of my Best Charts of 2021 (as well as my Worst Charts of 2021 and then also my favorites!) -- so this week I wanted to follow up with what I would say are the "honorable mention" charts of 2021...       These charts were worthy of mention but didn’t quite fit into any of the previous categories -- but were definitely worth including and highlighting both due to how they proved useful in the past year or so, but also in terms of the outlook into 2022.       These charts were featured in my just-released 2021 End of Year Special Report -- check it out (free download as a holiday treat!).       Enjoy, feel free to share, and be sure to let me know what you think in the comments...           1. Expect Higher Taxes: This chart arguably points to higher tax rates ahead given that government debt as a % of GDP has doubled over the past decade while effectively economy-wide tax-take has gone sideways.       chart of developed economy fiscal outlook - higher taxes forecast           2. Global Food Crisis? Stagnant capex by food producers contributed to a perfect storm for food prices (along with actual storms, pandemic disruption, rising costs).                 3. UK Equities: In the wake of Brexit & pandemic woes, UK equities moved to decade-low valuations vs their European peers. From crisis to opportunity?                     >>> These charts were featured in our 2021 End of Year Special Report.               4. Global Shipping Capex: Shipping sector investment stagnated for a decade – contributing to the global supply chain chaos. Ironically it likely rebounds after banking windfall profits from the surge in freight rates.                 5. Global vs US Earnings Cycles: A key driver of the long-term cycles of relative price performance of global vs US equities has been the cycles in relative earnings. That cycle will need to change for the price cycle to change.                 6. Pandemic Progress: the global rollout of vaccines, rising immunity, societal adaptations, and therapeutics have helped result in a series of lower highs in deaths – I like the look of that trend. The light at the end of the tunnel, though flickering at times, does seem a little brighter now…                     Thanks for reading!           This is an excerpt from my 2021 End of Year Special report - click through to download a free copy of the report.       Best regards       Callum Thomas   Head of Research and Founder of Topdown Charts           Follow us on:   Substack https://topdowncharts.substack.com/   LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/company/topdown-charts   Twitter http://www.twitter.com/topdowncharts

Bitcoin price bounces off the $45,678 support level, suggesting a higher high is likely. Ethereum price looks primed for a sweep of the $4,133 resistance level to collect the liquidity resting above it. Ripple price might head lower to retest the 3-day demand zone, ranging from $0.704 to $0.778 before it triggers a run-up. Bitcoin price has been stuck, ranging between two crucial levels since the December 3 flash crash. This consolidation is setting up the base for a long-term volatile move, but for now, BTC is likely to retest the range high of this sideways move. Ethereum and Ripple will promptly follow the big crypto and see short-term gains. Bitcoin price eyes higher high Bitcoin price bounced off the $45,678 support floor for the fourth time and is currently hovering at $46,921, just below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). A surge in bullish momentum that overcomes this hurdle is likely to propel the pioneer crypto to tag the $51,993 resistance barrier, coinciding with the 50-day SMA. A sweep of this level will collect the buy-stop liquidity resting above it. This 13% upswing is likely to face profit-taking at this level, leading to a reversal. However, in some cases, the buyers could flip this level to a support floor, suggesting that Bitcoin price might head higher and retest the $57,030. BTC/USD 4-hour chart While things are looking up for Bitcoin price, a breakdown of the $45,678 support floor will reveal a weakness among buyers. This move will crash BTC by 9% to retest the December 3, 2021 swing low at $41,672. Here, Bitcoin price has another chance to make a comeback and will likely restart the upswing. Ethereum price to revisit crucial barriers Ethereum price revisited the $3,640 support floor for the third time on December 31, 2021, triggering a 5% ascent to where it currently trades - $3,800. Unlike the big crypto, ETH is comfortably trading above the 200-day SMA. A potential spike in buying pressure is likely to propel Ethereum price to retest the $4,113 resistance barrier, coinciding with the 50-day SMA. This run-up would constitute an 8.4% ascent and is likely to see the short-term upswing capped. If the buyers continue to pile on the bid orders, ETH might slice through the said hurdles and make a run for the $4,435 ceiling, representing a 16% gain. ETH/USD 6-hour chart In some cases, Ethereum price might revisit the $3,640 barrier before heading to the immediate resistance barrier. A breakdown of this level, however, will lead to a retest of the December 3, 2021 swing low at $3,456, where buyers have another chance to restart the uptrend. Ethereum primed for 50% breakout to $6,300 Ripple price could head lower Ripple price is hovering above the 3-day demand zone, ranging from $0.704 to $0.778 and is likely to retest it before it decides to head higher. A dip into this area will replenish the bullish momentum, allowing the XRP price to climb higher. The $0.892 resistance barrier will be the first hurdle the remittance token will tag, beyond which it is likely to collect the liquidity resting above the $0.939 ceiling. In some cases, Ripple price could extend its run-up to $1, where it will face immense selling pressure. XRP/USD 4-hour chart Regardless of the recent run-up, if Ripple price slices through the 3-day demand zone, extending from $0.704 to $0.778, and produces a decisive close below it, the bullish thesis will face invalidation. In which case, the XRP price could slide lower to revisit the $0.656 support floor. XRP price to present long opportunity for Ripple bulls at $0.87

S&P 500 pared prior steep gains, but thanks to the credit markets message, I‘m not reading into Friday‘s weakness much. There is still more in this rally – value held better than tech, and high yield corporate bonds didn‘t really slide. The year end rebalancing will likely give way to solid Monday‘s performance. While VIX appears to want to move up from the 17 level, it would probably take more than one day to play out. As the Santa Claus rally draws to its close, the nearest data point worth looking forward for, is Tuesday‘s ISM Manufacturing PMI. It‘ll likely show still expanding manufacturing (however challenged GDP growth is on a quarterly basis), and that would help commodities deal with the preceding downswing driven by energy and agrifoods. Both of these sectors are likely to return to gains, and especially oil is. As stated on Thursday, the open profits would still keep rising. Precious metals were the key winners Friday, paying attention to the dollar and nominal yields retreat the most. The red metal‘s upswing certainly helped – such were my latest words: (…) copper is primed to catch up in the short run to the other commodities, gold is well bid at current levels, and together with silver waiting for a Fed misstep (market risk reappreciation) and inflation to start biting still some more while the real economy undergoes a soft patch (note however the very solid manufacturing data) with global liquidity remaining constrained even though the Fed didn‘t exactly taper much in Dec, and nominal yields taking a cautious and slow path towards my 2022 year end target of 1.80-2.00% on the 10-year Treasury. As I wrote prior Monday, we‘re looking at still positive 2022 returns in stocks – of course joined by commodities and precious metals. The path would be though probably a more turbulent one than was the case in 2021. Finally, cryptos look to be in agreement with not reading too much to Friday‘s downswings – both Bitcoin and Ethereum are turning up as $46K in BTC held up once again. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Nasdaq got a little oversold relative to S&P 500 – this is not the start of a fresh downtrend. Once financials and consumer discretionaries turn up, the rally will be on better footing again. Credit Markets HYG could have declined some more, but tellingly didn‘t. Bonds aren‘t ready to turn to risk-off just yet. Upswing attempt next shouldn‘t be surprising in the least. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver are looking at a much better year than was 2021. Stock market volatility, GDP growth challenges and persistent inflation would help the metals and commodities rise. Crude Oil Crude oil is about to move up again as gains were taken off the table on Friday. With the omicron response and related pronouncements coming in lately from the U.S., what else to expect – a great deal of destroyed demand doesn‘t look to be ahead. Copper Copper undid the prior pause, and looks ready to keep defending the $4.43 area. The long consolidation that started in May, would be eventually broken to the upside. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum may be short-term undecided, but don‘t look willing to decline. Cryptos are still bullish above mid-Dec lows. Summary First trading day of 2022 is likely to extend prior gains, resolving the prior sideways move. As risk-on faltered on Friday, S&P 500 and cryptos are likely to catch up, and oil would probably outperform copper today while precious metals digest very solid New Year‘s Eve gains. We‘re nowhere near the good days ending just yet – turbulence would come once Fed tapering gets really noticeable (post Olympics), with VIX trending higher well before that already. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

NZDUSD breaks support The New Zealand dollar tumbles against its US counterpart amid soaring Treasury yields. The pair is looking to consolidate its recent gains after it rallied above the 30-day moving average (0.6820). The December high at 0.6860 is a major resistance. A bullish close may propel the kiwi to 0.6950. In the meantime, the pullback below 0.6800 suggests a lack of further commitment from the buy-side as short-term traders took profit. 0.6740 is the next support and its breach may lead to a correction to 0.6700. XAGUSD seeks support Silver falls back as the US dollar strengthens across the board. Price action saw a strong recovery from the daily support at 21.50. A rally above 23.15 indicates interest in keeping the rebound valid, following a brief end of the year sell-off. The double top at 23.40 is an important resistance on the way to 23.70. This point lies in a supply zone from the late November sell-off. A break below the psychological level of 23.00 has prompted intraday buyers to bail out. 22.60 is the closest support and its breach could drive the metal to 21.80. GER 40 rises towards an all-time high The Dax 40 rallies in hopes that Omicron lockdowns can be avoided. A bullish MA cross on the daily charts indicates improved sentiment. The rally accelerated after it cleared the supply area around 15750. The bulls are pushing towards the all-time high at 16300. A breakout could resume the uptrend, attracting trend followers in the process. The RSI surged again into the overbought territory and may temper the bullish fever. 15840 is fresh support. 15680 from the previous resistance area would be a test for buyers’ resolve.

The start of 2021 wasn’t successful for gold: after a few days of rally, the yellow metal entered a bearish trend. 2022 looks uncomfortably similar. So far, so good – the first three days of 2022 didn’t bring a new catastrophe. It’s probably just the calm before the storm, but the new year started well. Even the price of gold has risen! As the chart below shows, the yellow metal managed to jump above the key level of $1,800 at the very end of 2021, but it still maintains its position (at least as of early January 3, 2022). It reminds me of the beginning of 2021. Gold also started last year with a bang, only to plunge later. Its price increased 3.5% during the first week of the year, reaching $1,957, and then began its big downward move. As the chart below shows, the yellow metal plunged below $1,700 at the very end of March. Hence, although January is historically a good month for gold, it might be too early to celebrate, and investors should exercise caution. However, luckily for gold bulls, there is one significant difference between 2021 and 2022. Last year, there were Georgia runoffs and Democrats took over both the White House and the full Congress (the House and the Senate). That was when the blue wave plunged the yellow metal. This year should be politically calmer for the US (so, we don’t count the odds of Russia invading Ukraine and China attacking Taiwan), but the major threat to the gold market remains the same: a rise in the real interest rates. In January 2021, it was the blue wave that triggered a rebound in rates, but it may be induced by many more factors in the future. It could be the development of a new cure against coronavirus and the end of the pandemic, a more hawkish Fed, or a decline in inflation. The spread of the Omicron variant keeps worries alive. After all, as the chart below shows, the 7-day rolling average of COVID-19 cases in the United States has hit a record high of about 405,000. When we are completely back to normalcy, risk appetite and bond yields may increase. Another risk for gold is the stabilization of inflation and even subsequent disinflation. As the chart below shows, we got a one-off boost in the money supply, so inflation is likely to peak this year. Inflation expectations should ease then, and real interest rates may rebound in such a scenario. What gives me some comfort here is that the pace of money supply growth hasn’t returned to the pre-pandemic level yet, but it stays at an elevated level (although much below the peak). It should support high inflation this year. Moreover, the Fed is likely to remain behind the curve and the peak in inflation may only strengthen the dovish camp within the FOMC (although investors should remember that the composition of the voting members of the Committee has become more hawkish in 2022).   Implications for Gold What does it all imply for the gold market? Will the yellow metal resume its long-term bullish trend in 2022? Well, this is what a majority of investors that took part in Kitco News’ annual outlook survey believe. Of nearly 3,000 retail investors, 54% said they see gold prices above $2,000 by the end of the year. This is also in line with Goldman Sachs’ call for gold in 2022. Other forecasters see gold prices trading in a range between $1,800 and $2,000. It’s certainly a possible scenario. After all, much of the Fed’s tightening cycle has already been priced in; and the last time gold bottomed was in December 2015, just around the first hike in the federal funds rate after the Great Recession. However, I expect more volatile trading with strong downside potential. As a reminder, my educated guess is that gold may plunge at some point amid a rebound in bond yields, but will rise later as worries about the next economic crisis accumulate. Indeed, it’s quite funny, but I haven’t even finished this article, and the price of gold has already started to slide amid rising US dollar index and Treasury yields, in line with my warnings from the beginning of this text. This is how I became a prophet. Now I can see that as soon as you finish reading this article you will continue surfing the internet! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

Very good S&P 500 entry to 2022, and the HYG intraday reversal is the sight to rejoice. In the sea of rising yields, both tech and value managed to do well – the market breadth keeps improving as not only the ratio of stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages shows. Likewise VIX refused to reach even 19, and instead is attacking 16.50. This is not complacency – the bulls were thoroughly shaken at the entry to the session yesterday – but a buying interest that convincingly turned the tide during the day. As I wrote yesterday: (…) thanks to the credit markets message, I‘m not reading into Friday‘s weakness much. There is still more in this rally – value held better than tech, and high yield corporate bonds didn‘t really slide. The year end rebalancing will likely give way to solid Monday‘s performance. While VIX appears to want to move up from the 17 level, it would probably take more than one day to play out. As the Santa Claus rally draws to its close, the nearest data point worth looking forward for, is Tuesday‘s ISM Manufacturing PMI. It‘ll likely show still expanding manufacturing (however challenged GDP growth is on a quarterly basis), and that would help commodities deal with the preceding downswing driven by energy and agrifoods. Both of these sectors are likely to return to gains, and especially oil is. The only sector taking a beating yesterday, were precious metals. While inflation expectations were little changed (don‘t look for inflation to go away any time soon as I‘ve been making the case repeatedly), the daily rise in yields propelled the dollar to reverse Friday‘s decline, and that knocked both gold and silver off the high perch they closed at last week. Still, none of the fundamental or monetary with fiscal policy originating reasoning has been invalidated – not even the charts were damaged badly by Monday‘s weakness. As economic growth gets questioned while fiscal policy remains expansive unlike the monetary one, volatily in the stock market together with persistent inflation would be putting a nice floor beneath the metals. Even cryptos are refusing to yield much ground, the Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio keeps trading positively, and I‘m not even talking the rubber band that commodities (crude oil and copper) are. Very good for our open positions there, as much as in the S&P 500 – let them keep bringing profits. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Really bullish price action in both S&P 500 and Nasdaq – that was the entry to 2022 I was looking for. Embellished with prior downswing that lends more credibility to the intraday reversal. Credit Markets HYG refusing to decline more, is the most bullish sign for today imaginable – let it hold, for junk bonds now hold the key, especially if quality debt instruments keep declining steeply. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver look to have reversed, but reaching such a conclusion would be premature. The long basing pattern goes on, and breakout higher would follow once the Fed‘s attempting to take the punch bowl away inflicts damage on the real economy (and markets), which is what the yield curve compression depicts. Crude Oil Crude oil is about to launch higher – and it‘s not a matter of solid oil stocks performance only. Just look at the volume – it didn‘t disappoint, and in the risk-on revival that I expect for today, black gold would benefit. Copper Copper swooned, but regained composure – the stop run is over, and we‘re back to base building for the coming upswing. Broader commodities certainly agree. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are very gently leaning bullish, but I‘m not sounding the all clear there yet thanks to how long Bitcoin is dillydallying. Cryptos aren‘t yet out of the woods, but their posture has improved thus far noticeably. Summary First trading day of 2022 extended prior S&P 500 gains, and the risk-on appetite is improving as we speak. Commodities are reaping the rewards, and we‘re looking at another good day ahead, including in precious metals taking a bite at yesterday‘s inordinately large downswing. Nothing of the big factors ahead for Q1 2022 as described in today‘s analysis (I wholeheartedly recommend reading it in full for the greatest benefits – there is only so much / little that I can fit into a one paragraph summary), and that means we‘re looking at further stock market gains as the bull runs (including in commodities and precious metals, yes precious metals), aren‘t over in the least. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  Gold, silver, and mining stocks started 2022 with a bang. However, this wasn’t the kind of fireworks investors were hoping for. While gold, silver, and mining stocks partied hard into year-end, the trio woke up to massive hangovers on Jan. 3. Although I’ve been warning for some time that mining stocks would stumble in 2021, the New Year is still filled with old problems. For example, the GDX ETF has been making lower lows and lower highs for months, and when its RSI (Relative Strength Index) approaches 70, the senior miners often run out of gas. For context, I highlighted the events with the blue vertical dashed lines below. Moreover, with the senior miners’ current price action following the ominous paths of 2000, 2008, and 2013, and their stochastic indicator still signaling overbought conditions, Monday’s weakness may be a sign of things to come. Please see below: Please also consider the implications of year-end tax-loss harvesting. With the general stock market rallying to start the New Year, losing positions that were sold to offset capital gains near the end of 2021 were likely repurchased on Jan. 3. However, gold, silver, and mining stocks didn’t benefit from the phenomenon. As a result, while the GDX ETF may have outperformed gold, the relative strength was immaterial within the overall picture. Turning to the HUI Index’s long-term chart, the same bearish forecast is present. For example, I marked the specific tops with red and black arrows. In the current situation, we saw yet another small move up, but that’s most likely because price moves are now less volatile. The areas marked with red ellipses remain similar and show back-and-forth movement before the big decline. As a result, we’ve entered a consolidation phase, and the implications are not bullish, but bearish. Making three of a kind, the GDXJ ETF’s corrective upswing has likely run its course. Interestingly, the junior miners’ current rally mirrors the small correction that materialized in mid-2021. Back then, the GDXJ ETF rallied on low volume and didn’t recapture its 50-day moving average. With the same tepid strength present today, the drawdown that followed in mid-2021 will likely commence once again. On top of that, the behavior of the GDXJ ETF’s RSI is also similar – with the indicator moving from roughly 30 to 50. For context, I highlighted the similarities with green and purple ellipses below. Also noteworthy, similar developments occurred in February/March 2020, before the profound plunge unfolded. As a result, the GDXJ ETF looks set for another sharp drawdown over the medium term and predicting higher prices might be misleading. Finally, while my short position in the GDXJ ETF proved quite prescient in 2021, the junior miners continue to underperform the senior miners. With the GDX/GDXJ ratio likely to confront new lows in the coming months, the GDXJ ETF should remain a material laggard in 2022. In conclusion, gold, silver, and mining stocks started off 2022 with a bang. However, it wasn’t the kind of fireworks that investors were hoping for. With each new celebration shorter in magnitude, it’s likely only a matter of time before their parties are canceled. As a result, the precious metals still confront the same bearish technical outlooks that plagued them in 2021. While mean reversion remains undefeated over the long term, the wait may prove longer than many expect. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Dogecoin price is setting up a triple bottom setup on a 4-hour time frame, suggesting a reversal is likely. Investors can expect DOGE to rally 13% and retest the $0.191 resistance level. A breakdown of the $0.20 support floor will create a lower low and invalidate the bullish thesis. Dogecoin price has been stuck trading below a vital resistance level and hovering around a crucial support floor. While a breakdown of this foothold could result in a massive downswing, DOGE has not done it yet. As of this writing, the meme coin eyes a minor upswing. Dogecoin price looks to contest significant hurdles Dogecoin price has set up a triple bottom pattern after tagging the $0.168 support level thrice over the past week. This price action could result in a short-term increase in buying pressure, leading to a 13% ascent to $0.191. Due to consolidative price action between December 24 and December 27, 2021, there is now pent-up buy-stop liquidity resting above $0.191, and market makers are likely to push DOGE higher in the short term. Traders can open a long position from the current level at $0.169 and take profits at $0.191. Interestingly, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) coincides with $0.191 lending credence to the target for Dogecoin Price. DOGE/USDT 4-hour chart On the other hand, if the Dogecoin price fails to bounce off the $0.169 support floor due to increased selling pressure, DOGE will likely revisit the $0.159 demand barrier. A breakdown of this foothold will create a lower low and invalidate the bullish thesis. In this case, Dogecoin price could crash 5% to tag the subsequent support level at $0.151.

Is The Lazy-Bull Strategy Worth Considering? - Part IMany traders struggled in 2021 with the extended price volatility and sideways price trends. Recently, news that Bridgewater's 2021 results were saved by December's +7.8% gain (Source: Yahoo! Finance) leads me to believe a number of independent funds and investors are going to have a tough end-of-year return for 2021.Average Hedge Fund Returns Less Than 25% Of The 2021 S&P500 GainsThe volatility in the US and global markets throughout most of 2021 took a toll on traditional trading strategies. With the VIX trading above 12 on average throughout almost all of 2021, traditional trading strategies may not have been able to adjust to this increased volatility in the US markets – getting chewed up along the way. I wrote an article series about how computerized trading strategies can fail when volatility levels increase beyond traditional boundaries a few weeks ago. You can read the first of the three part series, US Federal Reserve Actions 1999 to Present - What's Next?, and then link to the other two.(source: Aurum.com)Many of the best Hedge Funds could barely squeeze out a profit in 2021. While the S&P500 rallied more than 27% in 2021, you can see from the graphic above that the average returns for Hedge Funds in 2021 were a paltry +6.24%.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! I expect that the US and global markets will continue to stay in extended price volatility ranges throughout all of 2022 and into 2023 as broad global market transitioning continues to take place. This expectation leads me to conclude that the “Lazy-Bull” strategy may be better suited for traders/investors over the next 24+ months than more active trading strategies.What Is The “Lazy-Bull” Strategy?The Lazy-Bull strategy is a term I use for my proprietary strategies – The Technical Investor and the Technical Index & Bond Trader. I call it the Lazy-Bull strategy because it is straightforward and only generates about 3 to 10 trades per year (on average). Many traders dislike this type of strategy because it it does not require many trades and does not provide the rush/roller coaster ride that many think they should feel while trading, which is not how it should be. Having said that, overall, this strategy has consistently produced positive annual results (CGAR average ROI 15% - 51% depending on ETF leverage, and only 7 - 21% drawdown) – beating the SPY almost every year. If you traded with the 1x, 2x, or 3x ETFs then you would have crushed the S&P 500 every year, and experienced that positive rush feeling that leverage/volatility provides.My trading style is a bit different than most other traders. My objectives consist of three very important concepts:Protect Capital At All TimesTrade Only When Strategically Opportunistic (probabilities are favorable)Trade Efficiently Using Bonds As Trade When Fear Rises among traders and investors.Through the Technical Investor and Technical Index and Bond Trading strategies, I help individuals and advisors learn how trading more efficiently using the Lazy-Bull strategies is for generating large compounded returns as shown in the SP500 chart below.I'll go further into detail regarding my strategies as we continue this multi-part article.Reading Into Q1:2022 – What To Expect?Right now, the world is waiting on Q4:2021 earnings and economic data. The first Quarter of 2022 should be very exciting for US traders as the year-end momentum of 2021 may carry forward into Q1:2022 with solid revenues and earnings. After that, we move into Q2:2022, which may be much more volatile overall.Let's look at our proprietary data mining utility to see what we might expect from the markets in the first Quarter of 2022.January 2022 has more than a 1.41:1 probability ratio of staying positive based on the past 29 years of historical data. Ideally, the average positive and negative monthly ranges are about equal – nearly $5.00. The accumulated monthly data shows that January is usually overall positive by at least $2.50 to $5.00.February 2022 has a much higher chance of extreme volatility. February 2022 shows a much greater positive to negative ratio while the possibility of a bullish February drops to a 1.33:1 probability ratio. Overall, I would suspect larger price volatility in mid to late February 2022 as the markets attempt to transition into late Q1 expectations.March 2022 has the same 1.41:1 probability ratio as January, yet the overall likelihood of extended downside price trends is about 20% greater than January.My analysis of this data suggests January and March of 2022 may surprise traders with a potential for a significant upward price move headed into Q2:2022. I believe Q4:2021 will also surprise traders as US consumers continue to engage and spend. This will lead to higher expectations for Q1:2022, which may set up a bit of a rally ahead of April/May 2022.Q1 and Q2, historically, seem to be strong in terms of traditional market growth and expectations. Yes, there have been instances when unexpected volatility disrupts the more customary types of trends – and 2022 may be one of those years. Our research shows the US Fed may make early efforts to move away from extreme easy money policies – which may shock the markets.Our research suggests the possibility of a 7% to 10% rally in the SPY in the First Quarter of 2022. If our extended research is accurate, our predictive modeling suggests more extreme price volatility may also play a significant role in how price trends/moves in 2022. Is The Lazy-Bull Strategy Worth Considering?In Part II of this article, we'll review the entire year of 2022 Quarterly Data Mining results and present more evidence that 2022 and 2023 may be years where a shift in strategy plays an important role for traders/investors. With the VIX trading above 15 more consistently, many strategies will get chewed up and spit out as the markets roll 9% - 15% up and down while attempting to transition away from the post-COVID stimulus.Get ready; 2022 will be an excellent year for traders with significant trends and bigger volatility. We just have to stay ahead of these trends to protect our capital and allow it to grow more efficiently. The risks of more traditionally moderate volatility systems getting chewed up in this extreme environment will continue. So be prepared to move towards a more protective trading style to survive the next 12 to 24 months.Want To Learn More About The Technical Investor and The Technical Index & Bond Trading Strategies?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.I invite you to take a few minutes to visit the Technical Traders website to learn about our Technical Investor and Technical Index and Bond Trading strategies and how they can help you protect and grow your wealth. Have a great day!

Another daily rise in yields forced S&P 500 down through tech weakness – the excessive selloff in growth didn‘t lead buyers to step in strongly. More base building in tech looks likely, but its top isn‘t in, and similarly to the late session HYG rebound, spells a day of stabization and rebalancing just ahead. I‘m not looking for an overly sharp move, even if the very good non-farm employment change of 807K vs. 405K expected could have facilitated one. Friday though is the day of the key figure release – till then a continued bullish positioning where every S&P 500 dip is being bought, would be most welcome. The same goes for high yield corporate bonds not standing in the way, and for credit markets to reverse yesterday‘s risk-off slant. Likewise the compressed yield curve could provide more relief by building on last few days‘ upswings in the 10- to 2-year Treasury ratio. VIX has been repelled above 17 again, and keeps looking ready to meander near its recent values‘ lower end. That‘s all constructive for stock market bulls, and coupled with the fresh surge in commodities (and precious metals), bodes well for the S&P 500 not to crater soon again. Another positive sign comes from the dollar, which wasn‘t really able to keep intraday gains in spite of the rising Treasury yields. Cryptos though remain cautious (unlike precious metals which moved nicely off Monday‘s oversold levels – on a daily basis oversold), so we‘re in for a muddle through with a generally and gently bullish bias this week… until non-farrm payrolls surprise on Friday (and markets would probably interpret it as a reason to rise). Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 keeps respectably treading water, waiting for Nasdaq to kick in – odds are we won‘t have to wait for a modest upswing in both for too long. Credit Markets HYG is the key next – holding above yesterday‘s lows would give stocks enough breathing room, and so would however modest quality debt instruments upswing. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver are leading miners, but the respectable daily volume makes up for this non-confirmation. The table is set for the floor below gold and silver to hold, while a very convincing miners move has to still wait. Crude Oil Everything is ready for the crude oil upswing – even if oil stocks pause next, which can be expected if tech stages a good rally. Until then, it‘s bullish for both $WTIC and $XOI. Copper Copper is keeping the upswing alive, and any pullbacks don‘t have good odds of taking the red metal below 4.39 lastingly. Still, copper remains range bound for now, and the pressure to go higher, is building up. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum lost the bullish slant, but didn‘t turn bearish yet – this hesitation is disconcerting, but it would be premature to jump the gun. It‘s still more likely that cryptos would defy the shrinking global liquidity, and try to stage a modest rally. Summary S&P 500 internals reveal tech getting hurt yesterday, and at the same time getting ready for a brief upswing of the dead cat bounce flavor. And if HYG kicks back in, odds increase dramatically that the tech (and by extension S&P 500) upswing won‘t be a dead cat bounce (please note that I‘m not implying vulnerability to a large downswing) – that‘s my leading scenario, which should materialize by Friday‘s market open. Yes, I‘m looking for non-farm payrolls to be well received once the dust settles. Till then, commodities are paving the way for further stock market gains, with precious metals turning out not too shabby either. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Is The Lazy-Bull Strategy Worth Considering? Part III started this article by highlighting how difficult some 2021 strategies seemed for many Hedge Funds and Professional Traders. It appears the extreme market volatility throughout 2021 took a toll on many systems and strategies. I wouldn't be surprised to see various sector ETFs and Sector Mutual Funds up 15% to 20% or more for 2021 while various Hedge Funds struggle with annual returns between 7% and -5% for 2021.After many years in this industry and having built many of my own strategies over the past decade, I've learned one very important facet of trading strategy development – expect the unexpected. A friend always told me to "focus on failure" when we developed strategies together. His approach to strategy design was "you develop it do too well in certain types of market trends and volatility. By focusing on where it fails, you'll learn more about the potential draw-downs and risks of a strategy than ignoring these points of failure". I tend to agree with him.In the first part of this research article, the other concept I started discussing was how traders/investors might consider moving away from strategies that struggled in 2022. What if the markets continue trending with extreme volatility throughout 2022 and into 2023? Suppose your system or strategy has taken some losses in 2022, and you have not stopped to consider volatility or other system boundaries as a potential issue. In that case, you may be looking forward to a very difficult 12 to 14+ months of trading in 2022 and 2023.Volatility Explodes After 2017Current market volatility/ATR levels are 300% to 500% above those of 2014/2015. These are the highest volatility levels the US markets have ever experienced in the past 20+ years. The current ATR level is above 23.20 – more than 35% higher than the DOT COM Peak volatility of 17.15.As long as the Volatility/ATR levels stay near these elevated levels, traders and investors will likely find the markets very difficult to trade with strategies that cannot properly adapt to the increased risks and price rotations in trends. Simply put, these huge increases in price volatility may chew up profits by getting stopped out on pullbacks or by risking too much in terms of price range/volatility.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!The increased volatility over the past 5+ years directly reflects global monetary policies and the COVID-19 global response to the crisis. Not only have we attempted to keep easy money policies for far too long in the US and foreign markets, but we've also been pushed into a hyperbolic price trend that started after 2017/18, which has increased global debt consumption/levels to the extreme.2022 and 2023 will likely reflect a very strong revaluation trend which I continue to call a longer-term "transition" within the global markets. This transition will probably take many forms over the next 24+ months – but mostly, it will be about deleveraging debt levels and the destruction of excess risk in the markets. In my opinion, that means the strongest global economies may see some strength over the next 24+ months – but may also see extreme price volatility and extreme price rotation as this transition takes place.Expect The Unexpected in 2022 & 2023The US major indexes had an incredible 2021 – rallying across all fears and COVID variants. The NASDAQ and S&P500 saw the biggest gains in 2021 – which may continue into early 2022. Yet I feel the US markets will continue to transition as the global markets continue to navigate the process of unwinding excess debt levels and potentially deleveraging at a more severe rate than many people expect.Because of this, I feel the US markets may continue to strengthen as global traders pile into the US Dollar based assets in early 2022. Until global pressures of deleveraging and transitioning away from excesses put enough pressure on the US stock market, the perceived safety of US assets and the US Dollar will continue as it is now.(Source: www.StockCharts.com)Watch For Sector Strength In Early 2022 As Price-Pressure & Supply-Side Issues Create A Unique Opportunity For Extended Revenues/ProfitsI believe the US markets will see a continued rally phase in early 2022 as Q4:2021 revenues, earnings, and economic data pour in. I can't see how any global economic concerns will disrupt the US markets if Q4:2021 data stays stronger than expected for US stocks and the US economy.That being said, I do believe certain sectors will be high-fliers in Q1:2022 and Q2:2022 – at least until the supply-side issues across the globe settle down and return to more normal delivery expectations. This means sectors like Automakers, Healthcare, Real Estate, Consumer Staples & Discretionary, Technology, Chip manufacturers, and some Retail segments (Construction, Raw Materials, certain consumer products sellers, and specialty sellers) will drive a new bullish trend in 2022.The US major indexes may continue to move higher in 2022. They may also be hampered by sectors struggling to find support or over-weighted in symbols that were over-hyped through the end of 2020 and in early 2021.I have been concerned about this type of transition throughout most of 2021 (particularly after the MEME/Reddit rally phase in early 2021). That type of extreme trending usually leads to an unwinding process. I still don't believe the US and global markets have completed the unwinding process after the post-COVID extreme rally phase.(Source: www.StockCharts.com)Will The Lazy-Bull Strategy Continue To Outperform In 2022 & 2023?This is a tricky question to answer simply because I can't predict the future any better than you can. But I do believe moving towards a higher-level analysis of global market trends when the proposed "transitioning" is starting to take place allows traders to move away from "chasing price spikes." It also allows them to position for momentum strength in various broader market sectors and indexes.I suspect we'll start to see annual reports from some of the biggest institutional trading firms on the planet that show feeble performance in 2021. This recent article caught my attention related to Quant Funds in China.I believe we will see 2022 and 2023 stay equally distressing for certain styles of trading strategies while price volatility and an extreme deleveraging/transitioning trend occur. Trying to navigate this type of choppy global market trending on a short-term basis can be very dangerous. I believe it is better to move above all this global market chop and trade the bigger momentum trends in various sectors and indexes.Part III of this research article will focus on Q1 through Q4 expectations for 2022 and 2023. I will highlight broader sector/index trends that may play out well for investors and traders who can move above the low-level choppiness in the US and global markets.WANT TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THE TECHNICAL INVESTOR AND THE TECHNICAL INDEX & BOND TRADING STRATEGIES?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may begin a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.I invite you to take a few minutes to visit the Technical Traders website to learn about our Technical Investor and Technical Index and Bond Trading strategies and how they can help you protect and grow your wealth.Have a great day!

FOMC minutes didn‘t reveal fresh hawkish tunes, but markets were caught off guard – unlike 3 weeks ago during the statement and press conference. It‘s as if S&P 500 and pretty much everything else woke up to the hawkish reality only now. In spite of the new liquidity powered Santa Claus rally, the sudden realization that the March Fed meeting might very well bring in a first rate hike, forced a sharp downturn across the board.The dollar wasn‘t too affected by the daily rise in yields that hit junk bonds particularly hard. The yield curve keeps being compressed, and is getting closer to the point of inversion. The likely good employment data on Friday would provide the Fed with a convenient cover to embark on and keep pursuing the tightening route. Not that it would have the power to break inflation (even at the professed very accelerated tapering pace – let alone the relatively measly hikes when CPI, PPI or PCE deflator are considered) – this game of chicken with the markets risks a tantrum that could bring up the „fond memories“ of Dec 2018.Yes, the risks of crashing the airplane would grow up over the coming weeks and months – the Fed is walking a very tight rope indeed. Markets are spooked, and the coming days would show whether this is already the start of something worse, or whether we can still shake it off and continue upwards till the Olympics. I‘m still leaning towards the latter.Anyway, good to have closed the profitable S&P 500 and crude oil positions in time.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookTech understandably declined more than value – thanks to yields. S&P 500 bottom might not yet be in really. Bonds and tech need to stabilize first.Credit MarketsHYG is still holding the key, and would provide an early turnaround sign. The plunge in LQD isn‘t looking short-term encouraging in the least – the dust hasn‘t yet settled.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver still haven‘t left the sideways consolidation pattern – the white metal would be more affected through the inflation taming fears. That‘s though a premature calculation as inflation might turn out less amenable to be put down fast.Crude OilUnlike practically everything else, crude oil recovered strongly from the FOMC-induced setback – and certainly looks like the strongest of the pack at the moment.CopperCopper gave up advantageous position, and isn‘t really following (energy-led) commodities up yet. The long sideways consolidation is testing the bulls‘ resolve even as the pressure to go higher is building up. The same for silver, by the way.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum clearly lost the remainder of the bullish posture – it‘s turning out they aren‘t ready to defy the shrinking global liquidity.SummaryS&P 500 bulls look to get under some more pressure before the repeated hawkish message gets absorbed. The bond markets coupled with the dollar would reveal just how serious the bulls are about buying this dip and now. My bet is that they would remain shaken, and looking hesitantly for a floor. If there is one overarching message from yesterday, it‘s that the hawkish Fed appreciation has been woefully misapprehanded, and if followed through on in its entirety, would lead to a dangerous game of chicken with the markets (we aren‘t there quite yet).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

During my 25 years of trading and mentoring others, I have been dragged through the coals a few times. And by that, I mean I have; blown up a few trading accounts; had some massive gains only to watch them turn into worthless penny stocks, and; I even had one trade based around the volatility index blow up and become worthless the day after I bought it. I've had many other painful and costly trading experiences between those as well, and I know there will be more in the future. This leads me to the first topic I would like to talk about – learning through experience.#1 - Learned Through Expensive ExperiencesI help a lot of traders each year from all walks of life. They range from 18 to 85+ years of age. Some are total newbies, financial advisors, money managers, all the way up to billionaires. What is apparent is that the most successful traders (those who make money year after year) have the same things in common with how they trade. They all: walk a straight and somewhat unemotional line outside of learning from losses and trading mistakes.  focus on managing their capital because they understand just how quick and easy it is to lose money, which is why they focus and follow strict rules. follow very specific trading strategies/rules and do not trade on emotions. protect their capital ALWAYS with stops and position management only trade specific trade setups that put the probabilities in their favor focus heavily on index and bond positions say their trading feels slow/boring most of the time trade multiple strategies#2 - Ignore High Flying, News, Manipulated, and Hype Based MovesIt's hard not to participate in some of these wild rallies and stock crashes we have seen over the last couple of years. It's a natural tendency to want to take part in what everyone else is doing, and the lure of instant oversized gains is powerful. But, unfortunately, most individuals who get involved in these trades lose money for a good reason. They are trading based on greed/emotions with no real measured trading plan.Don't get me wrong; I'm not saying, "don't trade these stocks." In fact, many of these are incredible opportunities for experienced traders. These types of stocks generally become ideal for day traders and even momentum and aggressive swing traders. They can provide some quick extra cash. But that's what these types of trades are - small, fast, higher risk trades that only a seasoned trader should trade.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!For some reason, traders come into this business thinking it's a game and believes these are the types of trades that should always be traded. They take oversized positions only to experience significant damaging losses to their account.I conducted a survey a little while back, and the survey results blew my mind. Most people want to trade the volatile media-driven hype stocks and commodities. People fall in love with specific assets and want to trade only those, even if there are better assets and more efficient ways to pull money out of the market.The results below frustrate the heck out of me because, to me, it makes no logical sense if you are in the market to make money.Trader Survey Results Confirm Why it is Hard To Make MoneyThe above results make sense as studies have proven that humans react seven times more based on emotions versus logic. This is why the stock market has such wild price swings with Euphoric blowoff tops and Panic washout lows.People are highly addicted to riding their emotions (adrenaline/dopamine), and they love the rush of fast-moving stocks and gambling, which is why the markets are regulated, along with casinos, for that matter. Simply put, people lose control of common sense and logic when they are on tilt with emotion.Fast-moving assets with extreme volatility act as a bug-zapper light, which attracts bugs, only to kill anything that gets too close. In this case, new traders think they can make quick and easy money from hot stock in the news.Trading is a numbers game, and it requires logic, rules,and a proven strategy to win long-term.Based on the survey we did with thousands of traders, you can see that making the same amount of money with fewer trades and lower risk is not that exciting. Instead, traders prefer high volatility assets like metals, and natural gas, which are manipulated and have large wild price swings.Also, from a trading statics point of view, those two are among the most difficult to trade.As a pilot, I know the importance of keeping calm, having checklists/rules, and systems in place. Without them, you will eventually crash and burn; it is just a matter of time. The same holds true for trading and investing in that you need to trade what makes the most money, trade only the best setups, and have the lowest risk.Hottest Symbols vs Biggest TrendsBottom line, I don't care about trading every day or trying to catch the hottest symbols everyone is talking about. Instead, I care about catching and riding the biggest trends in the US stock index and the Treasury Bond ETFs. These are highly liquid sentiment trends that produce oversized gains each year. This is also the reason ETFs have taken over the mutual fund market and why financial advisors and hedge funds primarily trade/own stock index funds and bonds.Through the Technical Index and Bond ETF Trading strategy, I help individuals and advisors trade more efficiently. This strategy trades SPY, SSO, SPXL, QQQ, QLD, TQQQ and TLT, TBT, TMF, which generate large, compounded returns as shown in the chart below:This proprietary ETF trading strategy is straightforward and only generates about 3 to 10 trades per year. Most traders dislike this type of strategy because it lacks lots of action and volatility. If you noticed, you won't find many professional advisors telling you to jump into the fast-moving hype stocks, and for a good reason - they know better and want to protect your hard-earned capital. #3 - The Power Of Slow & Steady Gains Are Mind-Bending!As I learned a long time ago (and this holds true for almost everything across the board), learning something new, like mastering how to trade slower, consistent strategies, can take some getting used to. Everything new will always be a challenge, but once you master something, it becomes simple, low stress, and you will experience more consistent results.Take a look at this data from an Atalanta Sosnoff report. This should get my point across about how powerful slow, boring, consistent returns pack a powerful punch and why thousands of traders from 82 countries follow my index and bond trading signals.Source: Eagle Asset Management.The Technical Index & Bond ETF trading strategy has consistently produced positive annual results (CGAR average ROI 15% - 51% depending on ETF leverage, only 7 - 21% max drawdown). If you traded with the 2x or 3x ETFs, you would have crushed the S&P 500 every year and experienced that rush feeling that leverage/volatility provides but within a safer/smarter way.Passive trading styles like this are a bit different from those you may have traded in the past. My objectives consist of four very important concepts:Protect Capital At All Times.Trade Only When Strategically Opportunistic (probabilities are favorable).Trade Efficiently Using Bonds As Trade When Fear Rises among traders and investors.Move to cash or money market fund when the index and bonds are both out of favor.Concluding Thoughts:In short, I hope this has helped confirm your thinking of trading less and focusing on more solid trade setups. Or maybe it has opened your eyes to the world of slow and steady gains wins the race, with much less stress and effort.If you are interested in learning more about TIBT – Technical Index & Bond Trader, I invite you to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com/twa 

Shiba Inu price bounces off the daily demand zone, extending from $0.0000269 to $0.0000293.Increased buying pressure could propel SHIB by 31% to sweep the range high at $0.0000399.A four-hour candlestick close below $0.0000269 will create a lower low, invalidating the bullish thesis.Shiba Inu price is at an interesting point in its journey since it has produced two areas of liquidity in the opposite direction. Adding to this exciting development is one hurdle that blocks the path for SHIB and might hinder the bullish outlook.Shiba Inu price prepares for a rallyShiba Inu price set up two swing lows at $0.0000283 on December 20, 2021, and January 5, creating the double bottom setup. Interestingly, this setup took place inside the daily demand zone, extending from $0.0000269 to $0.0000293.While SHIB has recovered above this area, it needs to rally 12% before it faces the trading range’s midpoint at $0.0000341. Clearing this barrier will lead the meme coin to face $0.0000349, which harbors the buy-stop liquidity resting above it. Shiba Inu price needs to clear $0.0000349 before it can reach the range high at $0.0000399, completing its 31% ascent.SHIB/USDT 4-hour chartDepicting the importance of the hurdle at $0.0000349 is IntoTheBlock’s Global In/Out of the Money (GIOM) model. This on-chain metric shows that roughly 110,570 addresses that purchased 82,785 billion SHIB tokens at an average price of $0.0000350 are underwater.Therefore, Shiba Inu price needs to flip this barrier to reduce the selling pressure from holders trying to break even.Beyond this area, the resistance barriers thin out until $0.0000680, supporting the bullish outlook detailed above.SHIB GIOMFurther indicating the oversold nature of Shiba Inu price is the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) model. This on-chain metric is used to determine the average profit/loss of investors that purchased SHIB over the past month.Currently, 30-day MVRV is hovering at -11.53%, an opportunity zone, suggesting that SHIB holders are at a loss and are less likely to sell their tokens. Moreover, long-term holders tend to accumulate in this area, which could serve as a significant source of buying pressure and could be the reason to kick-start an uptrend.SHIB MVRVWhile things are looking up for Shiba Inu price, a four-hour candlestick close below the daily demand zone’s lower limit at $0.0000269 will create a lower low, invalidating the bullish thesis. This development could trigger a crash, knocking Shiba Inu price to retest the $0.0000237 support level.

S&P 500 didn‘t shake off the post-FOMC minutes selloff in the least – and credit markets don‘t offer much short-term clarity either. Probably the brightest sign comes from the intraday reversal in financials higher – but tech still isn‘t catching breadth, which is key to the 500-strong index recovery. Bonds remained in the count down mode, as in not yet having regained composure and risk-on posture.The bottom might not be in, taking more time to play out – if we see a really strong non-farm payrolls figure, the odds of Fed tapering and rate hiking seriously drawing nearer, would be bolstered – to the detriment of most assets. So, we could be looking at a weak entry to today‘s S&P 500 session. But as the data came in at measly 199K, more uncertainty is introduced – will they or won‘t they (taper this fast and hike) – which works to drive chop and volatility.We‘re looking at another risk-off day today – and a reflexive but relatively tame rally in quality debt instruments. Crude oil is likely to be least affected, followed by copper as the red metals takes a second look at its recent weakness going at odds with broader commodities strength. Precious metals look to be a better bet in weathering the tightening into a weak economy storm than cryptos.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookNeither tech nor value offered clues for today‘s session – the downswing overall feels as having some more to go still, and that‘s based on the charts only. Add in the fundamentals, and it could get tougher still.Credit MarketsHYG upswing solidly rejected, and not even high volume helped the bulls – the dust doesn‘t look to be settled here either.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver feel the heat, and it might not be yet over in the short run, miners say. Still, note the big picture – we‘re still in a long sideways consolidation where the bears are unable to make lasting progress.Crude OilCrude oil bulls are enjoying the advantage here – firmly in the driver‘s seat. Pullback are being bought, and will likely continue being bought – the upcoming maximum downside will be very indicative of bulls‘ strength to overcome $80 lastingly.CopperCopper‘s misleading weakness continues, and similarly to precious metals, it‘s bidding its time as no heavy chart damage is being inflicted through this dillydallying.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum are in a weaker spot, and the bearish pressure may easily increase here even more. This doesn‘t look to be the time to buy yet.SummaryS&P 500 still remains on edge and under pressure until convincing signs of turnaround develop – yesterday‘s session didn‘t qualify. With further proof of challenged real economy, a fresh uncertainty (how‘s that going to weather the hawkish Fed, and are they to listen and attenuate, or not?) is being introduced – short-term chop would give way to an increase in volatility. In the non-farm payrolls aftermath, markets haven‘t yet made up their minds – it‘s the riskier end of the asset classes to take the heat the most here (starting with cryptos). Don‘t look though for a tremendous rush into Treasuries – tech decoupling from the rising yields would be a first welcome sign of a local bottom.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Near November 24, 2021, I published a research article suggesting the Financial Sector, XLF in particular, may bottom and start to move higher, targeting the $43.60 level. After watching XLF rotate lower and form multiple bottoms near $37.50, it appears to finally be starting a new breakout rally phase ahead of Q4:2021 earnings. Will it rally up to my $43.60 target level before the end of January 2022? And how far could it rally beyond my $43.60 target?Using a simple Fibonacci Price Extension allowed me to target the $43.60 level. Duplicating that range and applying it to the top of the $43.60 target level will enable me to see a higher target range of $49.55. This upper target level would result from a 200% Fibonacci price rally from the original price range I identified back in late November 2021.Could it happen? Sure, it could happen. Financials are uniquely positioned to benefit from higher consumer engagement in almost all levels of the economy. Housing, consumer spending, credit/loan origination, fees and services, trading, and other services – they all combine into Banking and Financial Services. I expect Q4:2021 to show robust consumer engagement and housing data, likely prompting many financial firms' strong revenues/earnings results.My original financial sector (xlf) research article included (below) for you to review:The recent downward price rotation in the Financial Sector (XLF) may have frightened some traders, but my research suggests this move is setting up a future bullish price target near $43.60 – a more than +11% move. The end of the year Christmas Rally phase of the markets should drive spending and Q4:2021 expectations strongly into the first quarter of 2022. Unless something big breaks this market trend, traders should continue to expect a “melt-up” bullish price trend through at least early January 2022.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!The Financial Sector continues to deliver strong earnings and revenue data each quarter. The way consumers and assets prices have reacted after the COVID market collapse says quite a bit about the ability of financial firms to generate future profits. Financial firms actively engage in financial services, traditional banking, real estate, and other investments, and corporate financing. The rising inflation trends and consumer spending activities suggest the US economy is still rallying after the COVID stimulus and recovery.Financials May Rally 10% to 15%, or more, by January 2022My analysis of XLF suggests this recent pullback in price may stall and start a new bullish price rally targeting the $43.60 level – a full 100% Fibonacci Price Extension of the last rally in XLF.This Daily XLF chart shows the extended rally in early 2021 and the brief pause in the price rally between June 2021 and early September 2021. Now that we've entered Q4:2021 and the US economy appears to be strengthening in the post-COVID recovery, my expectations are that most sectors, and the US major indexes, will rally throughout the end of 2021 and into early 2022.This recent pullback in XLF sets up a solid buying opportunity for traders targeting a +10% rally that may last well into January/February 2022 – or longer.Longer-term Financial Trends Suggest Another Rally Above $44 May Start SoonOver the past 6+ months, moderate rally phases in XLF have shown a range of about $4.00 to $4.50. I've highlighted two recent rally phases in XLF on this longer-term XLF Daily chart below with gold rectangles. I believe the next rally from the recent pullback will be similar in size and prompt a moderate upward price move targeting the $43.60 level – or higher.Although there are some concerns related to the continuing recovery in the US markets, I believe the momentum of the US recovery and the strength in the US Dollar will push many US sectors higher over the next 60+ days. Closing out Q4:2021 and starting Q1:2022 with a fairly strong rally that may surprise many traders.The Financial sector is likely to present very strong Q4:2021 revenues and earnings data as long as the global markets don't push some crisis event or other issue that could detract from the US economic recovery. Right now, the biggest issues seem to be China and Europe.Concluding thoughtsMy opinion is that any moderate price weakness in the Financial sector will be short-lived and will resolve into a bullish price rally, or "melt-upward" type of trend, as we move into early December 2021. Once the US Debt Ceiling issue is resolved, I believe the Financial sector will begin a very strong rally pushing prices above $44 or $45 as Q4:2021 earnings expectations drive investors' focus into Technology, Consumer Retail, Financials, and Real Estate.The strength of the US Dollar is driving large amounts of capital into US assets and stocks right now. Based on my research, it is very likely that the US major indexes and certain sectors will continue to rally into early January 2022. If my analysis proves accurate, we may see a +11% to +18% rally in XLF before the end of January.If you are interested in learning more about how my strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition, I invite you to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

Is The Lazy-Bull Strategy Worth Considering? - Part IIIThis last part of our multi-part article compares trading styles amidst the increasing price volatility and extended hyperbolic trending. We'll explore what we've witnessed in the US markets over the past 5+ years and highlight what to expect throughout 2022. Additionally, we'll highlight and feature the strategic advantages of our advanced Lazy-Bull strategies.Lazy-Bull Rides Big Trends & Avoids Excessive RisksMany people are inherently opposed to the Lazy-Bull strategy because they've been conditioned to think trading requires actively seeking various opportunities every week. We don't quite see it that way. Instead, we see the opportunity for growth and consistency existing in taking 4 to 12+ strategic trades per year while the markets set up broad momentum moves/trends. Our objective is not to trade excessively just for the sake of trading. Instead, we want to take advantage of when the markets enter opportunistic periods of trending and ride those trends as far as they go.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!This example Weekly SPY chart showing our TTI trading strategy highlights the growth phases in various trend stages. Notice the GREEN and RED sections on this chart where our system has identified directional changes in the major price trends. Over the past 11+ years, there have been numerous bullish price trend phases resulting in 12 months to 36+ months bullish price trend trends. These major price cycles make up part of the advantage of the Lazy-Bull strategy.We are not actively seeking the strongest stock symbols throughout these trends. Instead, we are simply relying on the strength of the US major indexes to carry our trades further into profits as the market's trend. The TTI strategy is a "set it – and forget it" type of strategy until the strategy generates a new entry or exit trigger.Volatility & Price Rotation Make 2022 More Dangerous Than 2021 – What Next?Our research shows 2022 will likely continue to exhibit increased price volatility and bigger price rotation. Meaning 2022 could be very dangerous for shorter-term strategy traders as volatility levels may disrupt traditional stop boundaries or other aspects of their defined strategies.It is important to understand how and when these issues creep into a strategy and attempt to move above these issues.Looking at the Q1 through Q4 data using our proprietary Data mining utility, I'll give you my insight related to the data and what I believe is likely to happen in 2022. Remember, this data consolidated the past 28-29 years of trends in the SPY to present these results – going back to 1993. That means that this data is compiled through several various price trends, major market peaks, major market bottoms, and various volatility levels along the way.Q:2022 AnalysisQ1 data suggests an overall positive/upward price trend is likely in 2022, with the Total Monthly Sum across 29 years totaling 37.94. Broken into annual gains, that translates into an expected $1.30 gain in the SPY in Q1:2022.The Total Monthly NEG (negative) range appears to be more than double the Total Monthly POS (positive) range. However, we may see some price volatility in Q1:2022 that surprises the markets. For example, maybe the US Fed makes surprise rate increases? Perhaps it relates to some other foreign market event disrupting the US markets? I don't know what it will be, but I feel some market event in Q1 is likely, and this event may prompt a fairly large downward price rotation in the SPY.Overall, I believe Q1:2022 will end slightly higher than the end of Q4:2021 levels and may see the SPY attempt to break above $490~500 on stronger earnings and continue the market's bullish price phase.Q2:2022 AnalysisThe second quarter seems a bit more stable in overall price appreciation trends. The data shows a shallow NEG value compared to a moderately strong POS value for Q2. Because of this, I believe the second quarter of 2022 will slide into a relatively strong upward Melt-Up type of trend after a potentially volatile Q1:2022.The Total Monthly Sum value is higher in Q2 than in Q1, suggesting Q2 may exhibit a stronger upward momentum as a more apparent trend direction sets up after the Q1 volatility.The US Fed will likely attempt to aggressively reduce its balance sheet throughout Q2 and into Q3:2022 if my expectations are accurate. This may create some additional market volatility in Q2 and Q3:2022 – but I suspect the US Fed will attempt to conduct a lot of this activity relatively quietly – almost behind the market strength/trends.Q3:2022 AnalysisQ3 shows data that is somewhat similar to Q1 overall. I interpret this data as showing moderate bullish trend strength within the typical mid-Summer US market stagnation in trend. Mid-Summer trends tend to be a bit more sideways in nature. Many traders are vacationing, enjoying the Summer weather, and/or not paying attention to market trends and dynamics. Because of this, I expect the July through September months of 2022 to be relatively quiet and mundane.Additionally, we have the mid-term US elections set up in November 2022. The July through September months will be packed with political posturing, campaigning, and various events filled with antics to distract the markets from focusing on real issues. As a result, election years tend to be somewhat quiet – especially in the 2 to 5 months leading up to the actual election date.The end of Q3:2022 and the start of Q4:2022 could see some bigger, more aggressive price trending. The elections, ramping up of the early holiday/Christmas seasons, and the end of Summer may prompt traders to move into undervalued assets or other opportunist trades seeking to ride out an end-of-year trend. Right now may be a great time to identify strong swing/position trades to close out 2022 with some nice profits.Q4:2022 AnalysisQ4:2022 shows a very strong bullish trend potential, with the POS results greatly surpassing the NEG results. Historically, this is because of the traditional Santa Rally phase of the US markets and may play a big role in 2022 if the US economy stays strong throughout 2022.Overall, I expect the US Fed to act in a manner that supports the "transitioning" of the global markets away from excessive risks while attempting to nudge inflationary trends lower. There is talk that the US Fed may take aggressive action to combat inflation, but I see the Fed's actions are more subtle than brutal at this stage.I believe the US Federal Reserve is keenly aware of the fragility of the global markets after many years of excessive easy-money policies. In my opinion, the current market environment is more similar to the late 1960s and 1970s than the 1990s and early 2000 time frame. We've seen a massive influx of capital in the global markets – push all traditional economic metrics "off the charts" after the COVID event. That capital will work itself throughout the global economy, disrupting more at-risk companies and nations' capabilities, but still prompt a moderate growth component for many years to come.Volatility, Trading, And Profiting From Bigger TrendsThe entire point was to discuss the opportunities of moving above the current excessive price volatility and adopting a trading strategy that is more suited to bigger, broader market price trends. In 2019, I warned that 2020 was likely to be very volatile.In February 2021, I warned that 2021 was likely to be very volatile for certain market sectors: WILL 2021 PROMPT A BIG ROTATION IN SECTOR TRENDS? – PART IIIn early January 2020, I warned the US markets may be set up for a "Waterfall Selloff": ARE WE SETTING UP FOR A WATERFALL SELLOFF?Today, I'm suggesting that price volatility will likely peak sometime in 2022 or 2023 and begin to subside as the excesses of the past 8+ years continue to process through what I'm calling the "transitioning phase" of the markets. This market phase is more of a deleveraging and revaluation phase which started in February 2020 – in various sectors. It has now extended into many global economies where excess risk factors are being addressed and revalued (think China, Asia, and other areas).This transitioning process will likely continue in 2022 and 2023, meaning traders need to be prepared for the increased price volatility and adopt a style of trading that will allow them to profit from these bigger trends. This is why I'm suggesting taking a higher-level approach to trade over the next 24 to 36+ months.Certain market trends will still allow traders to pick up some fantastic profits as sectors and various undervalued symbols gain momentum. Overall, though, I feel that 2022 and 2023 will be moderately difficult for shorter-term trading strategies and that a higher-level, longer-term approach may be a much more beneficial approach.Want To Learn More About My Long-Term Investing Strategy?My Technical Investor strategy is uniquely suited toward this type of trading style. It is simple, longer-term, and rises above the moderate price volatility that disrupts many shorter-term trading strategies.Get ready; 2022 will be an excellent year for traders with big trends and bigger volatility. We have to stay ahead of these trends to protect our capital and allow it to grow more efficiently. The risks of more traditionally moderate volatility systems getting chewed up in this extreme environment will continue. So be prepared to move towards a more protective trading style to survive the next 12 to 24 months.If you are interested in learning more about how my Technical Investor (and other trading strategies) can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition, I invite you to visit  www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

  As in sports, a weak market streak can reverse in the next season. However, the precious metals team looks like it’s about to drop out of the league. While gold, silver, and mining stocks were in the holiday spirit during the final weeks of 2021, I warned on Jan. 4 that the GDXJ ETF’s sleigh was headed for an epic crash. I wrote: The GDXJ ETF’s corrective upswing has likely run its course. Interestingly, the junior miners’ current rally mirrors the small correction that materialized in mid-2021 (early August). Back then, the GDXJ ETF rallied on low volume and didn’t recapture its 50-day moving average. With the same tepid strength present today, the drawdown that followed in mid-2021 will likely commence once again. On top of that, the behavior of the GDXJ ETF’s RSI is also similar – with the indicator moving from roughly 30 to 50. For context, I highlighted the similarities with green and purple ellipses below. Also noteworthy, similar developments occurred in February/March 2020, before the profound plunge unfolded. As a result, the GDXJ ETF looks set for another sharp drawdown over the medium term. After the junior mining stocks ETF proceeded to decline by more than 6% in two days, my short position rang in the New Year with solid gains. What’s more, with the GDXJ ETF likely to break below its 2021 lows over the medium term, winter woes should materialize before a long-term buying opportunity emerges. Please see below: Likewise, with the GDX ETF’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) signaling an ominous outcome for the senior miners, I warned that a sell-off was likely on the horizon. For context, I highlighted the historical similarities with the blue vertical dashed lines below. Moreover, with the GDX ETF’s weakness accelerating on Jan. 5/6, the senior miners have declined sharply in recent days. In addition, the current price action mirrors the senior miners’ ominous performance in July/August 2021 – just like I’ve been describing it for a few weeks now. As a result, the previous corrective upswing is likely over, and the GDX ETF should confront lower lows sooner rather than later. For context, a breakdown below the 2021 lows should materialize over the medium term, and the forecast for gold, as well as gold stocks, is bearish for the next several weeks / months. However, the milestone may not occur over the next few days. Turning to the HUI Index’s long-term chart, the same bearish signals are present. For example, I marked the specific tops with red and black arrows. In the current situation, we saw yet another small move up, but that’s most likely because the price moves are now less volatile. The areas marked with red ellipses remain similar and show back-and-forth movement before the big decline. As such, while we’ve entered a consolidation phase, this week’s selling pressure has been quite ferocious. Thus, the implications are not bullish but bearish. Finally, the GDX/GDXJ ratio continues to perform as expected. For example, I warned throughout 2021 that the ratio was destined for devaluation. ith the metric kicking off 2022 with another decline, the GDXJ ETF continues to underperform the GDX ETF. For context, I believe that gold, silver, and the GDX ETF are all ripe for sharp re-ratings over the medium term. However, I think that the GDXJ ETF offers the best risk-reward ratio due to its propensity to materially underperform during bear markets. As a result, shorting junior miners offers a great risk to reward trade-off. In conclusion, gold, silver, and mining stocks began 2022 with the same weakness that plagued them in 2021. While the worst performers one year often become the best performers the next, the charts signal more weakness ahead. As a result, while the precious metals are poised to soar over the long term, lower lows will likely materialize before their secular uptrends resume. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  Happy new year, everyone! We hope that 2022 will be a prosperous one for all our readers. However, will it be successful for oil? Energy Market Updates Yesterday, crude oil prices ended higher, after a volatile session as US inventories fell by 6.4 million barrels – more than twice the previous week – which is another positive sign for demand. US inventories levels of crude oil, gasoline, and distillates stocks are again forecasted to fall by about 3 million more than expected last week. That would be another significant decline on the back of greater demand, according to estimated figures released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) yesterday. (Source: Investing.com) Crude oil prices stabilized near their 6-week highs following the OPEC+ group meeting, which maintained a limited increase in production of 400k barrels/day (no surprise). It is therefore a matter of maintaining an increase in production for the seventh consecutive month. This also shows that the organization was confident and believed in the resistance of global oil demand despite the recent restrictions implemented by several governments scared by Omicron, even though those travel restrictions may likely delay the resumption of aviation demand. RBOB Gasoline (RBG22) Futures (February contract, daily chart) WTI Crude Oil (CLG22) Futures (February contract, daily chart) Regarding natural gas, the Henry Hub (US benchmark) is slowly climbing as temperatures are dropping in many regions, while the European benchmark, the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), rallied 3.5% as European gas prices remain extremely volatile due to reduced exports from Russia (notably via the Yamal pipeline) but also via Ukraine. The upward momentum is also linked to weather forecasts, such as colder temperatures and frost encountering the European continent in the coming days and weeks, which may obviously have a stimulating effect on gas demand. Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGG22) Futures (February contract, daily chart) Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  What a way to start a year! Gold just faked its comeback before moving to new yearly lows. That’s a very bearish way for a market to start the year. Given that miners underperformed gold and silver briefly outperformed it, we have a very bearish storm brewing for the next couple of weeks / months. On Jan 3, I wrote the following: The year 2021 is over, 2022 has finally arrived. However, why does the current price action look “sooo last year”? Because the patterns appear to be repeating and the clearest similarity is present in the key precious metal – gold itself. Gold prices moved higher in late December, and it happened on low volume. The rally caused the stochastic indicator to move above 80 and the RSI above 50. That’s exactly what happened in both: late 2021 and late 2020. What does it mean? Well, it means that we shouldn’t trust this rally, as it could end abruptly, just like the one that we saw a year ago. Besides, gold corrected 61.8% of the preceding decline (so it moved to its most classic Fibonacci retracement), which means that – technically – what we saw in the past two weeks was just a correction, not the beginning of a new rally. And what happened next? Gold declined, faked its comeback, and then declined again to new yearly lows. 2022 continues to be a down year for gold, and this is particularly revealing, because early January is the time when the buy-backs should – theoretically – happen. I’m referring to the tendency for investors to exit losing positions (and – in tune with my expectations and against expectations of almost everyone else – 2021 was a down year for gold, silver, and mining stocks, after all) close to the end of the year, in order to harvest the tax loss, and then to get back into the market in early January. Despite the above tendency, gold is down, silver is down, and mining stocks are down as well. This shows that the precious metals market is weak (which has been clear since gold invalidated its breakout above the 2011 high in 2020) and is unlikely to soar significantly (in terms of hundreds of dollars) unless it slides first. Besides, at the beginning of major rallies, gold stocks tend to lead the way up. And right now, it’s exactly the opposite. The upper part of the above chart features the GDXJ ETF – proxy for junior mining stocks, the middle part features the GLD ETF – proxy for gold, and the bottom part features the S&P 500 Index. The red lines compare the previous stock market highs to what happened in junior miners, and the dotted lines show what juniors did when gold formed its recent highs and lows. In short, junior gold mining stocks are underperforming both: gold, and other stocks. This is as bearish as it can get, given the current situation regarding the USD Index (which is in a medium-term uptrend) and the situation in the interest rates, which are not only about to go up, but the expectations of them going up are becoming more and more hawkish. And that’s no accident either, as it’s in tune with the current political narrative in the U.S. – inflation is currently presented as the major enemy that needs to be dealt with. In other words, as the situation in interest rates is likely to become even more hawkish and the USD Index is likely to move higher, gold is likely to go down, and so – eventually – will the general stock market. And since junior mining stocks have already proven over and over again that they magnify declines on both markets, they are likely to fall particularly hard, when the above markets decline. We gained quite a lot based on the decline in the juniors in 2021, but it seems that the gains that could be reaped in 2022 (of course, I can’t and I’m not promising any kind of specific performance for any market) based on junior miners’ decline (and then their revival) could be breathtaking – but as always, only if one is positioned correctly for both major moves. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Decentraland price is hovering around the $3.16 support level and has tagged it for the third time. A bounce off this barrier could be the key to triggering a 22% rally to $3.96 for MANA. If the $3.16 support level breaches, it will invalidate the bullish thesis. Decentraland price is at an inflection point and will likely catalyze a massive run-up. This outlook, however, depends on how MANA bounces off the support level it is hovering around. Decentraland price looks ready for a move Decentraland price has been hovering around the $3.16 support level for roughly a week. So far, MANA has touched this support level thrice, giving rise to a triple bottom setup. This bottom reversal pattern combined with the consolidation suggests that the Decentraland price is ready for an explosive move. The $3.43 resistance barrier is the first hurdle Decentraland price will face on its journey north. Clearing this blockade will allow buyers to step on the pedal, propelling Decentraland to $3.65. If Decentraland manages to push past $3.65 and the buying pressure continues to hold up, MANA is likely to make a run for the $4 psychological level. Traders can take advantage of this opportunity by entering long at the current position and taking profit at $3.65. MANA/USDT 4-hour chart On the other hand, Decentraland price could fail to bounce off the $3.16 support level. If the selling pressure increases, pushing MANA to produce a four-hour candlestick close below $3.16 will create a lower low. If this barrier is shattered, it will invalidate the triple bottom’s bullish outlook and likely trigger a 4% crash to $3.01.

EURUSD tests key resistance The US dollar retreated after December’s nonfarm payrolls came in far below expectations. The pair has been in a narrowing range between 1.1270 and 1.1365. The previous fall below 1.1280 added pressure on the buy side, though it turned out to be an opportunity for the bulls to accumulate at a bargain. A break above the resistance could end the sideways action and trigger a runaway rally towards 1.1460. The RSI surged into the overbought area and may cause a brief pullback above 1.1295. USDCAD tests daily support The loonie rallied after Canada added twice as many jobs as expected in December. The year-end sell-off met strong bids near the daily support at 1.2620. But the rebound came to halt at the supply zone around 1.2810, which used to be a support from the previous consolidation. The RSI’s double top in the overbought zone has restrained the upward momentum. 1.2730 is a fresh resistance as price action is about to retest the critical level at 1.2620. A bearish breakout could trigger a plunge to 1.2540. GER 40 seeks support The Dax 40 edged lower as rising CPI in the eurozone argues in favor of tightening. The index saw stiff selling pressure right under the all-time high at 16300. A bearish RSI divergence in this major supply area indicates a lack of commitment from the bulls as buying slows down. A combination of profit-taking and fresh selling has led to a drop below 16100, a warning sign for a steeper correction. 15800 is the next key support. A breakout could send the index to 15500 at the base of the latest rally.

The cryptocurrency market received moderate support from retail buyers over the weekend. Over the past 24 hours, the capitalisation of all coins rose 0.22%, according to CoinMarketCap, approaching $1.97 trillion. The top altcoins lost 11-19% over 7 days but found buyers over the weekend. The $2 trillion mark in total crypto valuation turned into local resistance last week, from where pressure has intensified. However, a strong buy-the-deep mood has kept the market from forming a downward spiral. The cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index was stuck at 23 over the weekend, indicating extreme fear. The index has been hovering at the lower half of the scale since November 18th. Optimists, however, may note that the indicator has bounced back from the 10 level. The dip here in May and July coincided with the lows within the impulse, hinting at the potential for some technical rebound. Technical analysis also suggests a rebound in BTCUSD, with the RSI on daily charts showing attempts to move up from the oversold area below 30 and the price hovering near the reversal area in September. A longer-term view of the cryptocurrency market makes one more cautious about its prospects. Bitcoin has been in a downward corridor since November last year, having fallen to its lower boundary by the end of last week. Local overselling is a chance for a rebound, but the overall trend is still downwards. Cryptocurrency investors should not dismiss the idea of 4-year cycles in Bitcoin affecting the entire sector just yet. According to this hypothesis, 2022 could turn out to be a repeat of 2018 and 2014 - bear market years after a surge in the previous two years. Thus, it is worth paying increased attention to whether the crypto market manages to return to growth in the coming days and weeks. A strong start to the year will put these fears to rest.

S&P 500 indecisiveness Thursday gave way to another down day, and it doesn‘t look to be over in the least. Tech still isn‘t catching breadth enough – and that was my key condition of declaring a reprieve in the selling, if not a turnaround. Likewise credit markets don‘t offer optimistic signs – it‘s still risk-off there, and the sharp rise in yields is putting inordinate pressure on many a tech stock. True, the behemoths aren‘t that much affected, but even a glance at semiconductors tells you that the rot is running deeper than apparent from $NYFANG. This is part of the flight from growth into value, which we will see more of in 2022. The same for still unpleasantly high inflation which won‘t be tamed by the hawkish Fed – not even if they really allow notes and bonds to mature without reinvesting the proceeds already in Mar. The train has left the station more than 6 or 9 months ago when they were pushing the transitory thesis I had been disputing. We have truly moved into the persistently high inflation paradigm, and it would be accompanied by wage inflation and strong precious metals and commodities runs. We‘re looking at very good year in gold and silver while the turbulence in stocks is just starting, and we have quite a few percent more to go on the downside. Oil and copper are set up for great gains too. This will be a year when monetary and fiscal policy work at odds, when they contradict each other. Inflation would catch up with the economic growth in that inflation-induced economic slowdown would be a 2022 surprise. Signs of real estate softening would also appear – it‘s all about housing starts. While rates would rise (2.00% in 10-year Treasury is perfectly achievable), it won‘t catch up with inflation in the least – hello some more negative rates, and financial repression driving real assets. Rhymes perfectly with the 1970s. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook No real floor has materialized in either S&P 500 or tech. Volume didn‘t rise, the buyers aren‘t yet interested – we have to get at more oversold levels. Credit Markets HYG didn‘t build on Thursday‘s advance one iota, and still looks to me melting down. While the 10-year closed at 1.76%, we aren‘t looking at such sharp bond ETF downswings – and the degree in which tech reacts next, would be telling. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver staged an orderly recovery, still tiptoeing around the hawkish Fed, whose tightening cycle would turn out shorter than they think. And sniffing that out, would be the turning point in the metals. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls took a daily pause, but expect it to be short-lived. We‘re looking at triple digit oil not too many months away. Copper Copper pared back Thursday‘s setback, and definitely isn‘t overheated. The sideways consolidation that would be resolved to the upside, continues – the bears are fighting a losing battle. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum continue trading on a weak note, and the sellers are likely to return soon. This certainly doesn‘t look like a good time to buy. Summary S&P 500 still hasn‘t turned, and I‘m looking for more weakness – tech continues leading to the downside, and bond reprieve hasn‘t yet arrived. Anyway, it‘s questionable how fast tech would react – value can‘t keep S&P 500 afloat by itself. The realization of the hawkish Fed is here as much as the jobs data not standing in their tightening plans (wage pressures are here as quite a lot of vacancies remains unfilled – hello, full employment) – and assets are reacting. As I have stated in the 2nd and 3rd paragraphs of today‘s big picture analysis (investors would appreciate thoroughly), we‘re in for a challenging year in stocks, a great one in precious metals and most commodities – and definitely in for turbulence arriving, pulled over into 1H 2022 courtesy of the Fed. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

AUDUSD attempts reboundThe Australian dollar bounces back over strong retail sales in November. The pair saw bids near a previous trough (0.7130).The RSI’s double-dip into the oversold area attracted some traders in taking up the bargain. A bullish RSI divergence suggests a deceleration in the downward momentum. And a jump above 0.7180 could be the first step towards a bounce.The Aussie may surge to the daily resistance at 0.7360 if buyers succeed in lifting offers around 0.7270. Otherwise, the price could test the critical floor at 0.7080.USDJPY tests supportThe Japanese yen rose as risk appetite fades across markets.A bullish MA cross on the daily chart indicates that the dollar’s rally gained traction. However, an overbought RSI means that a pullback could be an opportunity for the bulls to buy dips.The dollar is testing the psychological level of 115.00, the origin of the rally above the November peak (115.50). An oversold RSI has brought in some buying interest. A bearish breakout could trigger a correction to 114.30. Then, the bulls will need to reclaim 115.90 in order to resume the uptrend.US 30 continues to retreatThe Dow Jones tumbled as US Treasury yields hit a two-year high on hike bets.A bearish RSI divergence foreshadowed the current sell-off. A drop below 36300 prompted leveraged positions to close out, driving up volatility as short-term sentiment deteriorated. Rebounds could be opportunities for the bears to sell into strength.35700 is an area of interest, as it lies in a former supply zone and along the 30-day moving average. 35200 would be a second layer of support, while 36400 is the immediate resistance.

Bitcoin briefly slipped below $40,000 in Monday's trading. BTC price sees a sharp recovery and a break above Monday’s high. As a broad recovery looks to be underway, expect bulls to target $50,000 in the first phase. Bitcoin (BTC) saw sellers squeeze out their final drop of gains on Monday after demand briefly dipped below $40,000. This level is in line with the low of the September 21 decline last year and BTC price bounced off the monthly S1 support level and a longer-term red descending trend line. Expect a turnaround from here, with demand switching to the buy-side with risk-on back on the front foot. BTC price set for a 180-turn back towards $50,000 Bitcoin price has given market participants quite a lot of pain at the start of 2022. Investors that came on strong out of the gate saw their investments devalue by 17%. On the horizon, however, the clouds start to evaporate, and during the European session, a global risk-on tone across assets is set to soothe and possibly erase the negative headwinds that were dictating price action these past ten days of the new year. Technically, BTC is set for recovery with an entry at around $39,800 and a bounce off the September 21 low, the monthly S1 support level and a rejection by the red descending trend line that formed since November 10. With the turnaround currently in global markets, cryptocurrencies are seeing a tailwind emerge that is set to break the high of Monday and could see it hit $44,088 later today. If markets can hold on to this momentum, expect that by Thursday bulls will attack the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the historical $48,760 level, which is then just inches away from $50,000, potentially within sight by the end of the week. BTC/USD daily chart With this turnaround, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) will likely see a bounce off the oversold border and start to drift towards the mid-50 area. This could open the door for short sellers to try and enter with sizeable short positions once $44,088 has been hit, and to seek to push BTC price further below $40,000, with $38,073 as the first price target. This will, at the same time, firmly disappoint investors who hoped to reach $50,000. Such a move, however, would most probably go hand in hand with global market sentiment returning to a depressive move.

S&P 500 reversed sharp intraday losses, and credit markets moved in a decisive daily risk-on fashion. Turnarounds anywhere you look – HYG, TLT, XLK… but will that last? VIX having closed where it opened, points to still some unfinished job on the upside, meaning the bears would return shortly – but given how fast they gave up the great run yesterday, I‘m not looking for them to make too much progress too soon. Good to have taken yesterday‘s short profits off the table. Assessing the charts, it‘s great (for the bulls) that tech liked the long-dated Treasuries reversal to such a degree – and that value closed little changed on the day (its candle is certainly ominously looking). As a result, we‘re looking at a budding reversal that can still go both ways, and revisit 4,650s in the bearish case at least. Remember that tech apart from $NYFANG lagged, and financials aren‘t yet broken either, meaning that the credit market upswing better be taken with a pinch of salt. True, rates have risen fast since the New Year, and the pace of yield increases has to moderate. I‘m of the opinion that yesterday‘s good Nasdaq showing hasn‘t yet turned tech bullish, and that we still face a move lower ahead. As written yesterday: (…) This is part of the flight from growth into value, which we will see more of in 2022. The same for still unpleasantly high inflation which won‘t be tamed by the hawkish Fed – not even if they really allow notes and bonds to mature without reinvesting the proceeds already in Mar. The train has left the station more than 6 or 9 months ago when they were pushing the transitory thesis I had been disputing. We have truly moved into the persistently high inflation paradigm, and it would be accompanied by wage inflation and strong precious metals and commodities runs. We‘re looking at very good year in gold and silver while the turbulence in stocks is just starting, and we have quite a few percent more to go on the downside. Oil and copper are set up for great gains too. This will be a year when monetary and fiscal policy work at odds, when they contradict each other. Inflation would catch up with the economic growth in that inflation-induced economic slowdown would be a 2022 surprise. Signs of real estate softening would also appear – it‘s all about housing starts. While rates would rise (2.00% in 10-year Treasury is perfectly achievable), it won‘t catch up with inflation in the least – hello some more negative rates, and financial repression driving real assets. Rhymes perfectly with the 1970s. Stocks aren‘t yet out of the woods, the yesterday opened oil position is already profitable, cryptos likewise maintain a gainful slant to the Sunday-opened short – meanwhile, precious metals are once again catching breadth to rise, and the same goes for copper. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook The bid arrived, and the bottom may or may not be in – in spite of the beautiful lower knot, I‘m leaning towards the hypothesis that there would be another selling wave. Credit Markets HYG reversal looks certainly more credible than the S&P 500 one. LQD though didn‘t rise, which is a little surprising – on the other hand though, that‘s part of the risk-on posture, which would have been made clearer by LQD upswing. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver position is improving, and I like the miners coming alive. The stage is set for upswing continuation till we break out of the very long consolidation. Crude Oil Crude oil looks to have declined as much as it could in the short run – I‘m looking for another run to take out $80 – see how little ground oil stocks lost? Copper Copper didn‘t outshine, didn‘t disappoint – its long sideways move continues, the red metal remains well bid, and would play catch up to the other commodities – the bears aren‘t likely to enjoy much success over the coming months. Bitcoin and Ethereum Just as I wrote yesterday, Bitcoin and Ethereum continue trading on a weak note, and the sellers are likely to return soon. This certainly doesn‘t look like a good time to buy. Summary S&P 500 turnaround has a question mark on it – one that I‘m more inclined to think would lead to further selling than a run above 4,720. The tech and bonds progress would be challenged again – we‘re still way too early in the Fed tightening cycle when the headwinds are only becoming to be appreciated. The room for negative surprises and kneejerk reactions is still there (the job market isn‘t standing really in the Fed‘s way), and it would likely take stocks (and cryptos) down while being less of an issue for real assets – be it commodities or precious metals. Wage pressures and unfilled vacancies are likely to last, meaning the inflation would be persistent – the staglationary era coupled with inflation-induced economic slowdown surprise I mentioned yesterday, awaits. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  Job creation disappointed in December. However, it could not be enough to counterweight rising real interest rates and save gold. On Thursday (January 6, 2022), I wrote that “the metal may find itself under hawk fire in the upcoming weeks”. Indeed, gold dropped sharply in the aftermath of the publication of the FOMC minutes. As the chart below shows, the hawkish Fed’s signal sent the price of the yellow metal from $1,826 to $1,789. This is because the minutes revealed that the Fed would be ready to cut its mammoth holdings of assets later this year. Previously, the US central bank was talking only about interest rate hikes and the ending of new asset purchases, i.e., quantitative easing. Now, the reverse process, i.e., quantitative tightening, is also on the table. What is surprising here is not the mere idea of shrinking the Fed’s assets – after all, they have risen to $8.7 trillion (see the chart above) – but its timing. Last time, the central bank started the normalization of its balance sheet only in 2018, nine years after the end of the Great Recession and four years after the completion of tapering. This time, QT may start within a few months after the end of tapering and the first interest rate hikes. It looks like 2022 will be a hot year for US monetary policy – and the gold market. Consequently, markets have been increasingly pricing in a more decisive Fed, which boosted bond yields. As the chart below shows, the long-term real interest rates (10-year TIPS) jumped from -1.06% at the end of 2021 to -0.73 at the end of last week. The upward move in the interest rates is fundamentally negative for gold prices.   Implications for Gold Luckily for the yellow metal, nonfarm payrolls disappointed in December. Last month, the US labor market rose, adding just 199,000 jobs (see the chart below), well short of consensus estimates of 400,000. This negative surprise lifted gold prices slightly on Friday (January 7, 2021). The latest employment report suggests that labor shortages and the spread of the Omicron variant of coronavirus are holding back job creation and the overall economy. However, gold bulls shouldn’t count on weak job gains to trigger a sustainable rally in the precious metals. This is because the American economy is still approaching full employment. The unemployment rate declined further to 3.9% from 4.2% in November, as the chart below shows. The drop confirms that the US labor market is very tight, so weak job creation won’t discourage the Fed from hiking the federal funds rate. As a reminder, in December, FOMC members forecasted the unemployment rate to be 4.3% at the end of 2021. What is crucial here is that disappointing job gains reflect labor shortages rather than weak demand. Additionally, wage growth remains pretty fast, despite the decline in the annual rate from 5.1% in November to 4.7% in December. The key takeaway is that, despite disappointing job creation, the US economy is moving quickly towards full employment. The unemployment rate is at 3.9%, very close to the pre-pandemic low of 3.7%. Hence, the latest employment situation report may only reinforce arguments for the Fed’s tightening cycle. This is fundamentally bad news for gold, as strengthened expectations of the interest rate hikes may boost real interest rates further and put the yellow metal under downward pressure. Some analysts believe that hawkish sentiment might be at its peak. I’m not so sure about that. I believe that monetary hawks haven’t said the last word yet, and that the normalization of the interest rates is still ahead of us. Anyway, Powell will appear in the Senate today, so we should get more clues about the prospects for monetary policy and gold this year. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

  The imminent interest rate hike by the Fed is almost certain. Are investors' concerns justified and will it mean trouble for the precious metals?  While the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite recovered from sharp intraday losses on Jan. 10, investors’ mood swings signaled heightened anxiety. With the PMs whipsawing alongside the general stock market, more volatility should materialize in the weeks and months to come. To explain, with the Fed on a hawkish warpath to fight rampant inflation, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon told CNBC on Jan. 10 that a resilient U.S. economy could prove problematic for the financial markets in 2022. “The consumer balance sheet has never been in better shape; they’re spending 25% more today than pre-COVID,” said Dimon. “Their debt-service ratio is better than it’s been since we’ve been keeping records for 50 years.” As for inflation and the Fed: “It’s possible that inflation is worse than they think and they raise rates more than people think. I personally would be surprised if it’s just four [interest rate] increases [in 2022],” he added. How would the financial markets react? Source: CNBC Singing a similar tune, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned on Jan. 10 that the Fed’s rate hike cycle could slaughter emerging markets. Its report revealed: “For most of last year, investors priced in a temporary rise in inflation in the United States given the unsteady economic recovery and a slow unravelling of supply bottlenecks. Now sentiment has shifted. Prices are rising at the fastest pace in almost four decades and the tight labor market has started to feed into wage increases.”   Volatile Days Ahead While I warned for all of 2021 that inflationary pressures were bullish for the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields and bearish for the PMs, the IMF stated: “Faster Fed rate increases in response could rattle financial markets and tighten financial conditions globally. These developments could come with a slowing of US demand and trade and may lead to capital outflows and currency depreciation in emerging markets.” As a result, even the IMF is anxiously bullish on the USD Index: For a good reason. With September, July, June, and May all gone by the wayside, now, the market-implied probability of a Fed rate hike in March has risen to nearly 83%. For context, the probability of a March liftoff was less than 10% in early November. Please see below: Likewise, the market-implied probability of four rate hikes by the Fed in 2022 has risen to nearly 87%. Again, the probability was less than 50% in early November. Please see below: Why the material shift? Well, while I’ve been warning for months that rampant inflation would elicit a hawkish about-face from the Fed, investors are finally coming around to this reality. With inflation still running hot, market participants understand that pricing pressures won’t subside without policy responses from the Fed. As a result, the “transitory” narrative is dead, and investors have lost one of their staunchest allies. This means that predicting silver and gold at higher levels in the medium term might not be the best idea. To that point, Bank of America’s dove-hawk spectrum shows that the dovish brigade has lost several soldiers. With the hawks now on the offensive, the officials preaching monetary patience are few and far between.  Please see below: For context, Bank of America still places San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly in the dovish bucket. However, I noted on Dec. 23 that she has materially shifted her stance in recent weeks: Source: The New York Times Furthermore, with inflationary pressures still bubbling, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index hit another all-time high of 236.2 in December, as “wholesale used vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) increased 1.6% month-over-month.” Please see below: On top of that, the cost of shipping from Shanghai, China, is still increasing. With the U.S. importing more goods from China than any other nation, the inflationary impact on the U.S. economy is material. Please see below: Finally, while the GDXJ ETF benefited from the NASDAQ Composite’s intraday reversal on Jan. 10, I warned on Oct. 26 that monetary policy tightening would eventually upend the junior miners. I wrote: To explain, the green line above tracks the GDXJ ETF from the beginning of 2013 to the end of 2015. If you analyze the left side of the chart, you can see that when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted at tapering on May 22, 2013, the GDXJ ETF declined by 32% from May 22 until the taper began on Dec. 18. Moreover, the onslaught didn’t end there. Once the taper officially began, the GDXJ ETF enjoyed a relief rally (similar to what we’re witnessing now), as long-term interest rates declined and the PMs assumed that the worst was in the rearview. However, as the liquidity drain caught up to the junior miners over the medium term, the GDXJ ETF declined by another 36% from when the taper was announced on Dec. 18, 2013 until the end of 2015. To that point, with part one already on the books, the second act will likely unfold once the Fed formally begins its taper in “either mid-November or mid-December.” Thus, history implies that the GDXJ ETF still has plenty of downside left. While the junior miners' ETF has declined by more than 11% since Oct. 26, Goldman Sachs has come around to our way of thinking. Please see below: To explain, Goldman Sachs told its clients last week that the yellow metal has been following its ominous path since 2013/2014 (as you may recall, I’ve been writing about the 2013-now analogy for months). For context, the red line above tracks gold’s price action from July 2010 until December 2014, while the blue line above tracks gold’s price action from July 2019 until now. If you analyze the symmetrical overlay, you can see that the pair have been in sync for some time. Moreover, if you focus your attention on the red line’s plight as time passes, it’s clear why Goldman Sachs is warning its clients about “further downside risk”. To that point, with the investment bank forecasting a real (inflation-adjusted) interest rate regime change in 2022, gold is poised to suffer along the way. To explain, the various bars above track gold’s monthly returns when the real U.S. Federal Funds Rate (dark blue), the real U.S. 5-Year Treasury yield (green), and the real U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield (light blue) begin with positive/negative values and then increase/decrease. If you focus your attention on the bars furthest to the right, you can see that when the real U.S. 5-Year Treasury yield and the real U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield are negative and then rise, gold suffers its worst monthly performances. Moreover, with the current fundamental environment presenting us with precisely that, similar results will likely materialize over the medium term. The bottom line? While investors desperately bought the dip on Jan. 10, the more than 2% intraday swing in the NASDAQ Composite screamed of monetary policy anxiety. With another hot inflation print poised to hit the wire on Jan. 12, the reprieve will likely be short-lived. Furthermore, with the PMs suffering from a similar fundamental affliction – as both the PMs and technology stocks are extremely allergic to rising interest rates – volatility is likely here to stay. As a result, the Fed should continue to break investors’ hearts over the medium term. In conclusion, the PMs rallied on Jan. 10, though their fundamental outlooks remain profoundly bearish. With interest rates poised to rise and the USD Index still undervalued, more headwinds should confront gold, silver, and mining stocks in the coming months. As a result, long-term buying opportunities are likely still a ways away. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

On Monday, we saw colourful confirmation of how much stock market dynamics are affecting Ether and Bitcoin. Following the intraday fall of more than 2% in the Nasdaq, the top two cryptocurrencies surrendered their psychologically important levels, retreating at $ 3K and $ 40K, respectively. However, in all cases, the fall was redeemed. The Nasdaq closed with a nominal decline, and Bitcoin very quickly returned to levels near $ 42K. Ether is currently trading at 3100, gaining over 1% since the start of the day. The broader technical picture has not changed, indicating locally oversold, which puts buyers on the run who have been waiting for a discount in recent days. The crypto market as a whole has been losing 0.6% over the past 24 hours, but since the beginning of the day, it has been adding 1.6% to $ 1.96 trillion against the dip to $ 1.86 trillion at the peak of the decline on Monday evening. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index lost 2 points in a day, dropping to 21. This is still in extreme fear, just like yesterday and a week ago. In our opinion, bitcoin and ether are bought locally by enthusiasts and a number of long-term strategic investors, while investment funds trade them based on bursts of demand or risk aversion. By and large, this puts cryptocurrencies on a par with growth stocks, sensitive to the dynamics of interest rates: the rise in profitability causes a sell-off of risks. At the same time, we must not forget that cryptocurrencies are more mobile, that is, they sometimes lose twice or three times more than Nasdaq. If so, then cryptocurrencies are far from the bottom, since the process of normalizing interest rates in financial markets is far from complete.

Apple (AAPL) iPhone turned 15 yesterday, January 9. Apple (AAPL) shares so far have not been in a celebratory mood. Apple (AAPL) stock still languishing at around $170 as tech suffers. Apple shares closed out Monday just in the green, registering a modest gain of 0.1% to close at $172.17. While tech names have struggled so far in 2022 due to higher yields and an aggressive Fed, apple remains poised near all-time highs. Apple stock chart, 15 minute Apple (AAPL) stock news The iPhone splashed onto the global stage 15 years ago with a humourous launch by then CEO Steve Jobs. He has actually announced that Apple was launching three products. A widescreen iPod with touchscreen, a breakthrough interest browser, and a phone. Eventually, the audience saw the joke and that this was actually what the iPhone was, three products rolled into one. The modern iteration of the smartphone was born and the industry would never be the same again. Nor would many other industries who benefitted enormously from handheld internet access. Social media companies such as Twitter (TWTR) and others owe a lot to the smartphone as do many online retailers. While Apple (AAPL) is the biggest company in the world it has dragged many other tech titans along with it. Apple (AAPL) stock forecast Apple has now broken below the key short-term moving averages, the 9 and 21-day. We have also put in place a double top which is a bearish formation. The triger is breaking the valley support at $167.46 which gives a target of $15 lower at $152. Along the way there will be support at $157. The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and relative strength index (RSI) are now in bearish territoy. The MACD crossed over and the RSI is below 50, with both trending lower. Apple should outperform other high growth tech names but it is not immune from contagion. Apple (AAPL) stock chart, daily

GBPUSD rally gains tractionThe US dollar fell after the Fed Chair’s remark that no decision has been made on quantitative tightening. The pair showed some weakness near the daily resistance at 1.3600.The RSI’s double top in the overbought area led some buyers to take chips off the table. However, a follow-up close above the resistance indicates that the bulls are still in control of the direction.Sentiment remains upbeat and 1.3700 from the start of the November sell-off would be the next target. 1.3570 is a fresh support in case of a pullback.NZDUSD bounces off major supportThe New Zealand dollar recovers as risk appetite returns following Jerome Powell’s testimony.The previous rebound towards 0.6830 met strong selling pressure. Its failure to achieve a new high suggests that the bearish bias lingers. The drop below 0.6740 further weighs on the kiwi. A bounce could still be an opportunity to sell into strength.The bulls need to clear 0.6835 in order to turn the tide, and 0.6730 is a fresh support. A bearish breakout may test the base of December’s bounce at 0.6700.EURJPY maintains uptrendThe euro recoups losses as traders dump safe-haven currencies. The fall below 130.80 has shaken out some weak hands.Nonetheless, the upward bias remains intact after the single currency saw solid demand over the psychological level of 130.00. The RSI’s oversold situation compounded the attractiveness of the discount.A rise above 131.60 would bring in momentum traders and clear the path for an extended rally to 132.55 near last October’s peak. 129.10 is the second line of defence in case of a deeper retracement.

  2021 will be remembered as the year of inflation’s comeback and gold’s dissatisfying reaction to it. Will gold improve its behavior in 2022? You thought that 2020 was a terrible year, but we would be back to normal in 2021? Well, we haven’t quite returned to normal. After all, the epidemic is not over, as new strains of coronavirus emerged and spread last year. Actually, in some aspects, 2021 was even worse than 2020. Two years ago, the pandemic was wreaking havoc. Last year, both the pandemic and inflation were raging. To the great surprise of mainstream economists fixated on aggregate demand, 2021 would be recorded in chronicles as the year of the supply factors revenge and the great return of inflation. For years, the pundits have talked about the death of inflation and mocked anyone who pointed to its risk. Well, he who laughs last, laughs best. However, it’s laughter through inflationary tears. Given the highest inflation rate since the Great Stagflation, gold prices must have grown a lot, right? Well, not exactly. As the chart below shows, 2021 wasn’t the best year for the yellow metal. Gold lost almost 5% over the last twelve months. Although I correctly predicted that “gold’s performance in 2021 could be worse than last year”, I expected less bearish behavior. What exactly happened? From a macroeconomic perspective, the economy recovered last year. As vaccination progressed, sanitary restrictions were lifted, and risk appetite returned to the market, which hit safe-haven assets such as gold. What’s more, a rebound in economic activity and rising inflation prompted the Fed to taper its quantitative easing and introduce more hawkish rhetoric, which pushed gold prices down. As always, there were both ups and downs in the gold market last year. Gold started 2021 with a bang, but began plunging quickly amid Democrats’ success in elections, the Fed more optimistic about the economy, and rising interest rates. The slide lasted until late March, when gold found its bottom of $1,684. This is because inflation started to accelerate at that point, while the Fed was downplaying rising price pressures, gibbering about “transitory inflation”. The rising worries about high inflation and the perspective of the US central bank staying behind the curve helped gold reach $1,900 once again in early June. However, the hawkish FOMC meeting and dot-plot that came later that month created another powerful bearish wave in the gold market that lasted until the end of September. Renewed inflationary worries and rising inflation expectations pushed gold to $1,865 in mid-November. However, the Fed announced a tapering of its asset purchases, calming markets once again and regaining investors’ trust in its ability to control inflation. As consequence, gold declined below $1,800 once again and stayed there by the end of the year. What can we learn from gold’s performance in 2021? First of all, gold is not a perfect inflation hedge, as the chart below shows. I mean here that, yes, gold is sensitive to rising inflation, but a hawkish Fed beats inflation in the gold market. Thus, inflation is positive for gold only if the US central bank stays behind the curve. However, when investors believe that either inflation is temporary or that the Fed will turn more hawkish in response to upward price pressure, gold runs away into the corner. Royal metal, huh? Second, never underestimate the power of the dark… I mean, the hawkish side of the Fed – or simply, don’t fight the Fed. It turned out that the prospects of a very gradual asset tapering and tightening cycle were enough to intimidate gold. Third, real interest rates remain the key driver for gold prices. As one can see in the chart below, gold plunged each time bond yields rallied, in particular in February 2021, but also in June or November. Hence, gold positively reacts to inflation as long as inflation translates into lower real interest rates. However, if other factors – such as expectations of a more hawkish Fed – come into play and outweigh inflation, gold suffers. Great, we already know that 2021 sucked and why. However, will 2022 be better for the gold market? Although I have great sympathy for the gold bulls, I don’t have good news for them. It seems that gold’s struggle will continue this year, at least in the first months of 2022, as the Fed’s hiking cycle and rising bond yields would create downward pressure on gold. However, when the US central bank starts raising the federal funds rate, gold may find its bottom, as it did in December 2015, and begin to rally again. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.

S&P 500 refused further downside, tech caught fire, and credit markets staged a risk-on reversal. The bond upswing is the most important element – Powell‘s testimony wasn‘t able to ignite further rise in yields at the moment.Couple that with continued energy surge, and we‘re looking at real assets being very favorably positioned here (relatively easiest gains ahead), and that has profitable consequences for oil, copper and precious metals bulls. Even cryptos like the fact that CPI didn‘t come above expectations.Stock market fate is though tied to the Treasuries and corporate bonds – keeping an eye on the tech sensitivity to both advancing and retreating yields is of paramount importance, with financials not sticking higher as a sore thumb among other S&P 500 sectors being the other.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookFresh attempt at the lows was repelled, and the bulls aren‘t looking too spooked. Market breadth hasn‘t plunged to new lows, and is being slowly improved. It looks like we‘re about to keep moving up before the bears return.Credit MarketsHYG reversal looks credible, even if the volume was lower. It‘s risk on as HYG outperformed – the next question is how would it fare when yields rise again.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver position is improving, and I like it that miners keep coming alive. As written yesterday, the stage is set for upswing continuation till we break out of the very long consolidation.Crude OilCrude oil is performing just right – breaking higher from the prior flag-like structure, and simultaneously being inspired by the oil stocks example – $80 resistance has been decisively taken out.CopperLooking at today‘s price action, the time of copper playing catch up to the other commodities has arrived already – the bears indeed aren‘t likely to enjoy much success over the coming months.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum are turning a corner, but animal spirits aren‘t there now – are cryptos more aware of the coming liquidity challenges? The rebound is lacking fervor still.SummaryS&P 500 turnaround succeeded, and markets are choosing to ignore the hawkish Fed and high inflation data. That‘s all good for commodities and then precious metals, but would catch up with stocks over time – in the sense that paper assets would underperform. For now, the S&P 500 bears have been repelled, and it would take a fresh round of higher yields forcing tech down, to knock the 500-strong index lower, which isn‘t likely to happen today. Overall, we‘re looking at still a good year in stocks (check the Latest Highlights for big picture picks), but 2H 2022 would be calmer than the prior 180 days.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

The US Federal Reserve's tightening monetary policy from a historically low-interest rate has slowed the US stock markets. As a result, traders quickly attempt to adjust their capital allocation levels as risk assets, technology, and US major indexes roll lower because of expected Fed Rate Hikes and other Hawkish activities.We will explore how the US Fed's comments and potential future actions may prompt significant market trends in 2022 and beyond. We'll also attempt to identify how and when the US Fed may disrupt the US markets. We know the actions of the US Fed will prompt some significant trends over the next 12 to 24 months. We know certain assets will likely rise in value as fear settles into the markets because of rising interest rates and deflating asset bubbles. It is just a matter of understanding how the speculative asset bubble of the past 8+ years and how the US Fed may move to pop these speculative bubbles soon.Asset Bubbles Everywhere, The Global Markets Continue To FrothAsset bubbles, such as those created in Cryptos, the US stock market, US Real Estate, and the art/collectible market over the past 5+ years, have visualized the US Fed's easy money results in terms of bubbles.Take a look at this chart showing the growth in certain asset classes since the start of 2019. It is incredible to think that these asset classes have rallied so far and so fast in just over 35 months: The Grayscale Bitcoin ETF rallied more than 1200%. The Technology sector rallied more than 200%. Real Estate rallied more than 85%. The S&P 500 rallied more than 94%. The US Federal Reserve's move to lower interest rates after the 2018 market collapse, which resulted in a December 24, 2018, Christmas Bottom, prompted an incredible rally phase where traders followed the US Fed in piling into assets. As long as the US Fed continued buying assets and kept interest rates near zero, global traders had no reason to fight the US Fed.(Source: StockCharts.com)Is The US Fed About To Pop The Bubble From The Stratosphere?Our research suggests the US Federal Reserve is changing its policy a little late into the game. However, it appears the US and global markets have already "rolled over" in terms of growth trends and expectations. This SPY to QQQ ratio chart highlights that the US markets entered a peaking phase in late July/August 2020 and reached an ultimate peak in February 2021.(Source: TradingView.com)S&P 500 PE Ratio Suggests Investors Are ALL-IN For The Next 90+ YearsIn other words, it appears traders have reached their ceiling in terms of what they believe the US Fed is capable of doing at this stage in the rally. For example, the PE Ratio of the US Stock market ending in 2021 ended just below 30, with a historical high for 2021 near 37. The historical mean is 15.96 – which is still relatively high for the US stock market.Remember, a PE level of 15.96 means any investor buying in at those levels would need a minimum of 15.96 years of a company handing over "every penny of revenue" to the investor (excluding all costs, payrolls, taxes, fees, and other operating expenses) to cover the PE multiple of the investment. So a PE level of 30, as we see at the end of 2021, suggests that stock price valuation levels are at least 60 to 90+ years ahead of real returns.The only thing that can change this historic level of speculation in the markets is a deleveraging/revaluation event.(Source: multpl.com)From the US Fed's Actions To How Traders Should Prepare For Shifting MarketsThis first part of our ongoing research into the US Fed's actions and where they are telegraphing their intents will continue. Part II of this article will investigate how traders should read into these shifting markets and where we're attempting to highlight what has taken place over the past 3 to 5+ years.We've managed to live through an incredible event in history. I can only think of one other time when a global superpower extended this type of credit and support for the worldwide economy. That was the Roman Empire many thousands of years ago.What we experience over the next 20 to 40+ years could be the biggest and most incredible opportunity of your lifetime. The process of deleveraging all this debt and working all this capital through the global markets over the next few decades may present one of the most incredible investment/trading opportunities anyone has ever seen in over 1500 years.Look for my Part II to this article, and we'll continue exploring the current shifts in the US and global stock and asset markets.Finding The Right Strategies That Will Help You Navigate Through Bulls & BearsIf you have struggled with finding opportunities over the past year or so and want to know which are the hottest sectors, or how to protect and grow your capital, then please take a minute to review my Total ETF Portfolio - Triple-Strategy Trading Plan to help you profit from these big market transitions.Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

USDCHF tests daily support The US dollar plunged after December’s CPI slowed down to 0.5% from 0.8% in November. Despite a swift recovery from the daily support at 0.9100, price action came under pressure once again at December’s supply area (0.9280). The dive below 0.9180 then 0.9140 is a sign of liquidation as buyers rush to the exit. As the greenback revisits the critical support at 0.9100, an oversold RSI may attract some buying interest. The former demand area around 0.9200 is now the first resistance level. XAUUSD looks to break out Gold edged higher as the US dollar softened across the board. The precious metal has met stiff selling pressure in the supply zone around 1830. This level used to be a support from last November’s sell-off. The recovery above the psychological level of 1800 shows the bulls’ commitment to keeping the price afloat. A break above the supply zone would force the sell-side to cover and trigger an extended rally towards the previous peak at 1870. On the downside, 1800 has turned into a fresh support. USOIL continues upward WTI crude climbed higher after a larger-than-expected fall in US inventories. A close above the daily resistance at 79.00 was a strong bullish sign. Following a brief pause, the rally accelerated above 80.40. Sentiment remains upbeat and the bulls are keen to buy the dip during a pullback. A breach above 82.20 would clear the path to the peak at 85.00. An overbought RSI may cause a temporary retreat. In that case, trend-followers could be looking to jump in near the closest support at 81.20.

S&P 500 sold off only a little in the wake of CPI data – probably celebrating that the figure wasn‘t 8% but only 7%. As if that weren‘t uncomfortable already – and the Fed wants to field accelerated taper, and perhaps even four quarter-point rate hikes to tame it? Oh, and perhaps also balance sheet reduction through not reinvesting proceeds from matured bonds and notes as talked on Monday – sure, that will do the trick. Looking at Treasuries over the prior two days shows that the Fed isn‘t being questioned. Value defends the high ground while tech rallies – Monday‘s fear with its brief return Tuesday, is in the rear-view mirror, compacency returning, and VIX again below 18. Prior upswing consolidation right next, is the most likely action for S&P 500. The real gains though are being made elsewhere – in crude oil and copper. With commodities back on fire, these two have certainly greater appreciation potential next than stocks or cryptos – so, long live our open longs there! The red metal has defied base metals intraday consolidation yesterday, and that has consequences for inflation trades – silver is waiting in the wings. To give you an idea how mispriced the risk of persistently unpleasant inflation is, yesterday‘s CPI coming only in line with expectations, caused inflation expectations to decline… At least the dollar took a rightful breather – its prior sideways consolidation has been broken to the downside. Currencies are starting to figure out inflation, and just how far and inadequate Fed‘s promise to take on it, has been... Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Daily consolidation of prior strong gains that‘s likely to go on today – stocks are making up their mind as to where next in the very short run now that the bears had been repelled. Credit Markets HYG is likewise looking to need some time to move higher next – volume is declining, and a brief sideways move is most likely now. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver are still sideways to up – not down. The pressure to go higher is building up, waiting for the Fed miscalculation, or perception of the consequencies of its upcoming action. The faith in the central bank isn‘t yet really shaken. Crude Oil Crude oil finds it easiest to keep rising – the technical and fundamental conditions are in place, and oil stocks will continue to be the leading S&P 500 performers. Copper Copper is starting to play catch up to the other commodities finally – it‘ll be a rocky ride, but the red metal has waken up, and cast a clear verdict on inflation that has to seep into other markets next. Will take time, but we‘ll get there. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum didn‘t convince on the upside, and with no dovish surprise on the horizon, the path of least resistance probably remains down for now. Summary S&P 500 turnaround is getting cemented, and worries about the hawkish Fed or inflation look to be momentarily receding. Not even the PPI is waking up the markets – the focus seems to be on measly 0.1% undershoot. Ironic, pathetic. While stocks keep on moving in a tight range, and still want to keep on appreciating modestly, the real action is happening in the commodities, to be followed by precious metals. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  “It’s my party and I’ll fall if I want to”, sang gold and kept its word. Although the dollar weakened, gold seemed reluctant to take advantage of it. Now that was a big decline in the USD Index! What made gold yawn and why is it declining today? Because it doesn’t want to rally. I’ve been writing this over and over again, and yet I’ll write it once more. Markets don’t move in a straight line up or down, and periodic corrections are natural. However, the way markets interact during those corrections tells us a lot about what’s likely to take place next, at least in the case of some markets. The USD Index declined quite visibly yesterday and in today’s overnight trading. The key questions are: so what, and if that was completely unexpected. Starting with the latter, it wasn’t unexpected. It’s something in tune with gold’s long-term chart. When the weekly RSI (based on the weekly price changes) for the USD Index hit 70, I wrote the following: Also, please note that the recent medium-term rally has been calmer than any major upswing witnessed over the last 20 years, where the USD Index’s RSI has hit 70. I marked the recent rally in the RSI with an orange rectangle, and I did the same with the second-least and third-least volatile of the medium-term upswings. The sharp rallies in 2008 and 2014 were of much larger magnitudes. And in those historical analogies, the USD Index continued its surge for some time without suffering any material corrections. As a result, the short-term outlook is more of a coin flip. Consequently, the current decline is not unexpected, it’s rather normal. I marked additional situations on the above chart with orange rectangles – these were the recent cases when the RSI based on the USD Index moved from very low levels to or above 70. In all three previous cases, there was some corrective downswing after the initial part of the decline, but once it was over – and the RSI declined somewhat – the big rally returned and the USD Index moved to new highs. I marked those declines in the RSI with blue rectangles, and I did the same thing for the current decline. As you can see, the size of the move lower is currently analogous to previous short-term corrections that were then followed by higher prices. This means that it’s quite likely over or very close to being over, and the medium-term rally can return any day now. Moving back to USD’s short-term chart, we see that the USD Index just (in overnight trading, so the move is not even close to being confirmed) moved a little below USDX’s rising support line based on the previous June and October 2021 lows. At the same time, the USDX is slightly below its late-2020 top and slightly above its November 2021 top. In light of the situation on the long-term USDX chart (as discussed above), this combination of support levels is likely to trigger a rebound and the continuation of the medium-term rally. At the beginning of 2021, I wrote that the year was likely to be bullish for the USD Index, and my forecast for gold (and the rest of the precious metals sector) was bullish – against that of almost every one of my colleagues. The USD Index ended 2021 about 6% higher, gold was down about 3.5%, silver was down almost 12%, the GDX ETF was down by about 9.5%, and the GDXJ ETF (proxy for junior mining stocks, my primary tool for shorting the precious metals sector in 2021 – I wasn’t shorting gold at any point in 2021) was down by about 21%. What about this year? It’s a tough call to say how the entire year will go, but it seems to me that the USD Index will move higher, and we’ll see both in the PMs: a massive decline, and then a huge rally. It’s very likely to be a year to remember for anyone interested in trading gold, silver, and/or mining stocks and/or investing in them. Let’s get back to the current situation. The USD Index declined to fresh 2022 lows – well below the previous January lows, and also below the December and late-November lows. How did gold respond? Gold rallied – but just by a mere $8.80. While gold got close to its early-January high, it didn’t manage to move above it. 2022 is still a down year for gold. Also, gold is clearly below its November 2021 highs, when it was trading close to $1,900. Is gold showing strength here? Absolutely not. Gold is showing the opposite of strength. It’s weak and unwilling to react to the USD’s weakness. That’s exactly what I want to see as a bearish indication if I plan on entering a short position in the precious metals sector or when I’m timing an exit of a long position, or as a confirmation of a bearish narrative in general. So, yes, of course I want to say that yesterday’s rally in gold was a bearish development. That’s the case, because gold should have rallied so much more, given what happened in the USD Index. Today’s overnight action makes the bearish case even clearer. The USDX is down a bit, but gold is down too, anyway. It simply doesn’t want to rally. Gold wants to decline instead. Mining stocks and silver behaved similarly to gold yesterday – they didn’t move to, let alone above, their previous 2022 highs. Consequently, they confirm the indications for the gold vs. USD dynamic – they don’t point to something else. Summing up, the outlook for silver, gold, and mining remains bearish for the medium term, and this week’s rally seems to be nothing more than a counter-trend breather. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

GameStop stock continues to edge lower with little momentum. GME shares slide to $128, nearly 2% lower on Wednesday. GME stock is down 30% over the last three months and 13% this year. GameStop (GME) is reaching a key juncture. Now that the Fed has seemingly performed its magic act of raising rates and keeping markets happy, it is time to see if meme stocks can benefit from a more risk-on tone in equities. Meme stocks are all about momentum, not valuation, and there have been worrying signs for the last quarter. Small lot trades have been decreasing, and these are often used as an indicator of retail activity. Call option volumes have also decreased, another meme stock feature used widely by retail traders. Finally, the economy is nearly fully open, and the Omicron variant is milder. Will meme stocks ever recapture their preeminence of this time last year when they ruled the airwaves? GameStop (GME) was the number one topic on CNBC, and every other major financial news outlet. This year, so far, it barely warrants a mention. Momentum is worrying, and that is all meme stocks have to support them. GameStop (GME) stock news Today, January 13, marks the exact one-year anniversary of the first huge pop in the GME stock price. On January 13, 2021, GME stock spiked 57%, having been near 100% intraday, and set in motion the saga as we know it. That took GME shares from $20 to nearly $40 before closing back at $31.40. Many of us, myself included, thought this was madness when we took a close look at the company. Now if you got the chance to buy stock in GME at $40, you would jump at it. This is an example of how price alters the perception of value and why retailers have constant sales. Technically, the double top has been the problem here. GME put in a double top on November and December last year that has played out perfectly. The slide though has continued past the target. $118 is now key, and breaking below sees volume dry up and a likely move to $70. Breaking $160 to $167 is needed to change the view to a more bullish stance in our opinion. GameStop (GME) chart, daily

US 100 revisits major support The Nasdaq 100 faltered after an unexpected rise in US initial jobless claims. The tech index bounced off the demand zone around 15200 which used to be a resistance on the daily chart. A bullish divergence revealed a slowdown in the sell-off momentum. The latest break above 15820 prompted some sellers to cover but came under pressure at 15980. After intraday traders took profit, 15200 is a critical support to keep the rebound relevant. A deeper correction would send the price to 14900. EURGBP stuck in bearish trend The euro rose after ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said the inflation spike may last longer than projected. Nonetheless, the bearish sentiment still prevails after the pair failed to hold on to 0.8370. The former support has now turned into a resistance. The current consolidation could be a distribution phase and a drop below 0.8325 could send the price to February 2020’s lows near 0.8290. On the upside, the bulls have the challenging task of lifting offers around 0.8370 and then 0.8415 before they could attract more followers. XAGUSD tests major resistance Silver extends its recovery on the back of a weak US dollar. The metal saw support at the psychological level of 22.00. A break above the resistance at 22.80 and then an acceleration to the upside indicates strong buying interest. An overbought RSI has temporarily held the rally back. The bulls are testing the daily resistance at 23.40. A breakout could shake sellers out and trigger a reversal above 24.00. On the downside, buyers could be lurking around 22.60 in case of a pullback.

The US Federal Reserve has recently taken steps to communicate a change in future policy – suggesting raising interest rates and acting more aggressively to combat inflation. Throughout the last few weeks of 2021 and early 2022, these comments and posturing by the US Fed have created some very big downside price moves in the US major indexes. As a result, the US markets' volatility levels (VIX) have moved to a recent average between 17~21 – nearly 3x historical normal levels.US Fed Likely To Move Very Slowly On RatesOne thing that I believe has become evident to many people is that we have moved past the COVID stimulus conversations of the past 24+ months. Inflation, rising prices, constricted supply-chains, and an excess of capital throughout many global markets appear to have shifted how the US Fed interprets future risks. The Fed is telegraphing these concerns to investors very clearly right now, which means traders/investors are shifting their focus away from high-flying Growth stocks.Even though traders are attempting to shift capital away from certain risky sectors in the US and global markets, I still believe we have about 60 to 120+ days before the bigger market shift takes place.The US Federal Reserve will likely start addressing inflationary concerns by reducing their balance sheet assets – not by aggressively raising interest rates. I feel the US Fed will navigate Q1:2022 and Q2:2022 by reducing balance sheet assets while allowing the global supply-chain issues to attempt to resolve themselves. By June/July 2022, or later, I believe the Fed may start to consider rate increases as a means to slow inflation.Fed Comments Shift Investor Sentiment – Metals In Focus For Later 2022This move away from Dovish/easy-money policies will push traders to consider more traditional hedge investments – like Gold and Silver. I'm sure you've read some comments over the past 24+ months about Gold being an extremely undervalued asset as the US Fed poured trillions of stimulus dollars into the economy? These comments were made concerning the fact that Gold rallied from $1450 in 2019 to almost $2100 in 2020 – over 12 months (over +43%). Could a big move in Gold/Silver happen again in 2022 or 2023?My research suggests a Double Pennant/Flag formation in Gold suggests the $1675 support level becomes critical soon. It also indicates a Breakout/Breakdown move may start to happen before March or April 2022 – near the APEX of the current Pennant/Flag formation.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! The key APEX range is currently between $1785 and $1830. This represents a very tight price range where Gold may attempt to consolidate as we move towards the March/April Apex. My research suggests a move to levels near $1740 to $1750 may happen just before the Apex Breakout/Breakdown initiates. So, watch for a bit of downside price volatility in Gold before the end of February 2022.Junior Gold Miners May Rally +45%, Or More, On A Gold Price RallyThe Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) Weekly Chart shows a firm support level near $37.35 that should act as a floor for price. My research suggests the next 45+ days will see GDXJ prices stay below $44 to $45 – trading in a reasonably tight range before starting to rally higher near the end of February 2022.I believe Metals and Miners are aligning for a late February 2022 or Q2:2022 rally. The reason is that I believe the positioning by the US Fed, and expectations related to later 2022 (a mid-term election year), may prompt quite a bit of concern for the US and global equities. This will likely push investors and traders into “old-school” hedge instruments – like Gold and Silver.That means Junior Gold and Silver Miners maybe about 55+ days away from an explosive upside price trend.SILJ May Rally +70% to +100%, Or More, On Fed ActionsNear the end of 2022, I published a research article highlighting the incredible opportunity in Silver – focusing on how the Gold/Silver ratio had recently reached another peak level and had started to decline: Fear May Drive Silver More Than 60% Higher In 2022. This move suggests the disparity between the price of Gold to the price of Silver shows Gold is appreciated (and holding greater value) than Silver over the past few years.The COVID virus event, and the subsequent Fed/Government stimulus, shifted investors/traders focus away from precious metals and into the equities market speculative rally. Now that the US Fed is starting to warn of more aggressive rate increases and other actions, precious metals are suddenly much more important as a hedge against future risks.This SILJ Weekly Chart highlights the incredible base level, near $12, that continues to offer traders a fantastic hedge against a sudden Fed move. Using a simple Fibonacci Price Extension, we can see a $20 target level (+61%) and a $25.64 target level (100%). If the $12 level holds as a base/support, SILJ may be one of the easiest and best hedges against a sudden Fed move right now.The US Federal Reserve is, in my opinion, playing with fireThe COVID Virus Event pushed global debt levels higher by more than $19.5 Trillion Dollars (Source: Bloomberg ). The rush to attempt to save the global economy has created a massive surge in global debt levels – pushing the global debt to GDP level to well above 356% (Source: Axios).Why is this so important right now? Because the US Federal Reserve is talking about an attempt to move interest rates and Fed decision-making back to near-normal levels. In my opinion, this was the one fault of Alan Greenspan in 2006-07. The thought that we can raise rates to “near normal level” at any time when we have grown debt levels excessively throughout the world is failed thinking and ignorant, in my opinion.The US Federal Reserve is trapped and almost backed into a corner. I believe the US Fed will find any rate increases above 1.00 before the end of 2023 will significantly disrupt the global speculative bubble. Any attempt to move rates to levels near or above 2.00 would represent a nearly +2000% rate increase in less than 12 to 24 months. If you want to see a shock to the global markets where global debt to GDP is closing in on 400%, try raising the FFR by more than 2000% over a short period of time. That is what I call “playing with FIRE.”.(Source: Axios)2022 and 2023 will be filled with significant market trends and increased volatility. Right now, traders and investors need to understand the global markets are attempting to quickly transition away from a speculative/growth phase as the US Federal Reserve attempts to telegraph future rate increases. So it's time to start thinking about how to prepare for unknowns and how to protect your capital more efficiently.Growth sectors and US major indexes may continue to move higher for the next 30 to 60+ days, but my research suggests Q2:2022 may represent a "change in thinking" related to a late-2022 Fed shift. We are starting to see the markets move away from the speculative bubble-type trending we saw in 2020 and early 2021. Keep your eyes open and learn how to prepare for the big trends over the next 3+ years. The Fed is playing with fire right now. One wrong move and the markets could start a drastic price correction/reversion.Finding The Right Trading StrategiesIf you have struggled with finding opportunities over the past year or so and want to know which are the hottest sectors, or how to protect and grow your capital, then please take a minute to review my Total ETF Portfolio – Triple-Strategy Trading Plan to help you profit from these big market transitions.Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

  Inflation! The Republic is crumbling under attacks by the ruthless Supply Lord, Count Shortage. Dearness is everywhere. Will gold save the galaxy? If George Lucas were to make a movie about 2021 instead of Jedi knights, he would probably call it Revenge of the Supply. After all, last year will be remembered as the period of semiconductor shortages, production bottlenecks, disrupted value chains, delayed deliveries, surging job vacancies, rising inflation, and skyrocketing energy prices. It could be a shocking discovery for Keynesian economists, who focus on aggregate demand and believe that there is always slack in the economy, but it turned out that supply matters too! As a reminder, state governments couldn’t deal with the pandemic more smartly and introduced lockdowns. Then, it turned out – what a surprise! – that the shutdown of the economy, well, shut down the economy, so the Fed and the banking system boosted the money supply, while Congress passed a mammoth fiscal stimulus, including sending checks to just about every American. In other words, 2021 showed us that one cannot close and reopen the economy without any negative consequences, as the economy doesn’t simply return to the status quo. After the reopening of the economy, people started to spend all the money that was “printed” and given to them. Hence, demand increased sharply, and supply couldn’t keep up with the boosted spending. It turned out that economic problems are not always related to the demand side that has to be “stimulated”. We’ve also learned that there are supply constraints and that production and delivery don’t always go smoothly. The contemporary economy is truly global, complex, and interconnected – and the proper working of this mechanism depends on the adequate functioning of its zillion elements. Thus, shit happens from time to time. This is why it’s smart to have some gold as a portfolio insurance against tail risks. Evergiven, the ship that blocked the Suez Canal, disrupting international trade, was the perfect illustration. However, the importance of supply factors goes beyond logistics and is related to regulations, taxes, incentives, etc. Instead of calls for injecting liquidity during each crisis, efficiency, reducing the disincentives to work and invest, and unlocking the supply shackles imposed by the government should become the top economic priority. Another negative surprise for mainstream economists in 2021 was the revenge of inflation. For years, central bankers and analysts have dismissed the threat of inflation, considering it a phenomenon of the past. In the 1970s, the Fed was still learning how to conduct monetary policy. It made a few mistakes, but is much smarter today, so stagflation won’t repeat. Additionally, we live in a globalized economy with strong product competition and weak labor unions, so inflation won’t get out of control. Indeed, inflation was stubbornly low for years, despite all the easy monetary policy, and didn’t want to reach the Fed’s target of 2%, so the US central bank changed its regime to be more flexible and tolerant of inflation. It was in 2020, just one year before the outbreak of inflation. The Fed completely didn’t expect that – which shows the intellectual poverty of this institution – and called it “transitory”. Initially, inflation was supposed to be short-lived because of the “base effects”, then because of the “supply bottlenecks”. Only in November, the Fed admitted that inflation was more broad-based and would be more persistent than it previously thought. Well, better late than never! What does the revenge of supply and inflation imply for the gold market? One could expect that gold would perform better last year amid all the supply problems and a surge in inflation. We’ve learned that gold doesn’t always shine during inflationary times. The reason was that supply shortages didn’t translate into a full-blown economic crisis. On the contrary, they were caused by a strong rebound in demand; and they contributed mainly to higher inflation, which strengthened the Fed’s hawkish rhetoric and expectations of higher interest rates, creating downward pressure on gold prices. On the other hand, we could say as well that gold prices were supported by elevated inflation and didn’t drop more thanks to all the supply disruptions and inflationary threats. After all, during the economic expansion of 2011-2015 that followed the Great Recession, gold plunged about 45%, while between the 2020 peak and the end of 2021, the yellow metal lost only about 13%, as the chart below shows. Hence, the worst might be yet to come. I don’t expect a similarly deep decline as in the past, especially given that the Fed’s tightening cycle seems to be mostly priced in, but the real interest rates could normalize somewhat. Thus, I have bad news for the gold bulls. The supply crunch is expected to moderate in the second half of 2022, which would also ease inflationary pressure. To be clear, inflation won’t disappear, but it may reach a peak this year. The combination of improvement on the supply side of the economy, with inflation reaching its peak, and with a more hawkish Fed doesn’t bode well for gold. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.

The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index has been cruising between 21-23 for the past seven days - in the extreme fear territory, finding itself in the middle of that range on Monday. Meanwhile, the value of all coins tracked by CoinMarketCap fell 0.5% in the last 24 hours to $2.05 trillion. By and large, a sideways range, $2.0-$2.1 trillion, has also been prevalent here for the past seven days, marking a lull in bull and bear fighting. It remains to be seen whether this signifies fatigue from the past months' turbulent moves or preparations for a new strong momentum. The local victory is on the bears' side, dominating the top coins now, where losses range from -0.8% for Bitcoin to -5.7% for Polkadot over the last 24 hours. Bitcoin failed to build on last week's upside momentum and is back in the $41-42K consolidation area, approaching it from above. A decline from these levels in the coming days will be a development of the downtrend since November, reversing the BTCUSD from the upper boundary of the downtrend channel. A bearish scenario suggests a dip towards $31K by the end of this week to close the July gap. But the door for such a decline will only open after the bulls surrender the $40K level they managed to hold in September and earlier in January. Ether has also encountered a sell-off in its attempts to rise above $3.3K. The 200-day moving average level is now acting as significant resistance. Bitcoin and Ether, which have a combined capitalisation of almost 60% of all cryptocurrencies, show worryingly negative dynamics. At the same time, their share has been declining since late last year. We are seeing either a shift in investor attitudes towards the sector leaders or certain inertia of altcoins compared to the flagships. Right now, it seems that crypto enthusiasts are not at all opposed to the changing landscape. However, as is often the case in nature, such changes rarely go smoothly.      

Sandbox investors are not returning to the scene as bulls refrain from erasing Thursday’s fade SAND price action enters a squeeze with bulls being pushed against the $4.72 level and stopped out on a break below. Expect a possible dip further to the downside if no help comes from global markets. The Sandbox (SAND) looked to be starting an uptrend after the perfect technical bounce off the monthly S1 support level at $4.19. Instead, the rally was short-lived and underwent a fade yesterday with investors reluctant to pick price up off the floor of the $4.72 historical level. If global markets don’t rally today, expect a dip to the downside with bulls getting stopped out and a nosedive back towards $4.19. Pressure is mounting with bulls cut short and pushed back at the entry This week, the Sandbox was on the same page as most other cryptocurrencies, having found support and delivered promising signs of a new rally that could set the tone for 2022. But instead, markets and participants are having issues reading between the lines on central bank tightening from the FED – and what that means for equity investments and portfolio rebalancing. With that, cryptocurrencies took a step back yesterday, and SAND failed to pare back yesterday’s incurred losses. SAND bulls look to have fled the scene as bears push price-action back down against the $4.72 level that holds some historical importance in SAND’s brief existence. A break below would trigger another sharp sell-off as stops run, and sell volume gets enlarged. A test or break below the monthly S1 at $4.19 could then follow.. SAND/USD daily chart Although European equities are red, US futures are mildly green, so sentiment could quickly shift once the US cash trading session starts. This will see a bounce off the historical level and a swing to the upside, touching the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $5.60 or the monthly pivot just above. That would preposition SAND bulls for an attack on the red descending trend line in the week to come.

S&P 500 didn‘t like latest weak data releases, but finished well off intraday lows. This reversal though leaves quite something to be desired – and it‘s sectoral composition doesn‘t pass the smell test entirely either. Yields continued to rise while HYG barely closed where it opened – that‘s not really risk-on. Cyclicals, and riskier parts of tech weren‘t visibly outperforming – the S&P 500 rally felt like a defensive bounce off some oversold levels. That‘s why it won‘t likely hold for long – I don‘t think we have seen the end of selling – more downside awaits. It‘s still correction time, even if 2022 is likely to end up around 5,150 – we‘re still in a bull market, and Big Tech would do well. For now though, rising yields are putting pressure – and they would continue to rise. As liquidity would no longer be added by the Fed by Mar, the question remains how much would funds coming out of the repo facilities and the overnight account at the Fed (think $2t basically) offset the intended tightening. Commodities aren‘t at all shaken, and Wednesday‘s positive copper move doesn‘t look to be an outlier – unlike Friday‘s decline that didn‘t correspond with other base metals. Even though it might be soothing to the pension funds, inflation rates aren‘t likely to come down to the usual massaged 2% during the next 2-3 years, no matter whether the Fed hikes by 0.25% 6 or 8 times. The persistently and unpleasantly 4-5% high CPI is likely to break the mainstream narrative, and stay with us for much longer than generally anticipated, which is only part of the reason why I am looking for gold to leave $1,870s very convincingly in the dust this year. Both yellow and black gold would rise in tandem, and the rising open crude oil profits (heavy long positions opened at $78) are part of the reason behind permanently elevated inflation ahead. The commodities upswing is also no longer tempered by the rising dollar. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook The tech reversal could carry the daily weight of S&P 500 upswing – the daily weight only. I‘m not looking for this modest show of strength to hold. Credit Markets HYG didn‘t close strongly either – rising yields are taking their toll, and will continue doing so. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver downswing needn‘t be feared – while the metals are still sideways, the pressure to go up is building, and the dollar woes would be but the first catalyst (challenged faith in the Fed taming inflation would be next). Crude Oil Crude oil still finds it easiest to keep rising, and black gold could pause a little on the approach to $90 – the technical and fundamental upswing conditions are in place, and oil stocks will continue to be among the best S&P 500 performers. Copper Copper catch up was postponed a little – that‘s all. The decline wasn‘t a true reversal, and the red metal would take on $4.60 before too long again. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum still can‘t convince on the upside, and with no dovish surprise on the horizon, the path of least resistance probably remains down for now – today‘s session definitely confirms that. Summary S&P 500 upswing isn‘t to be trusted, and its defensive nature out of tune with bonds, is part of the reason why. The stock market correction has further to go, and while tech overall would do well in 2022, it has to decline first – that would set the stage for a good 2H advance. The early phase of the Fed tightening cycle belongs to the bears, and it would continue to be commodities and precious metals to weather the storms best. Long live the inflation trades. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

USDCHF attempts to rebound The US dollar came under pressure after a contraction in December’s US retail sales. Strong selling pressure from the supply area around 0.9280 has pushed the pair all the way below the daily support at 0.9100. An oversold RSI triggered a buying-the-dips behavior but the rebound could be limited as sentiment tilted to the bearish side. The bulls will need to reclaim the support-turned-resistance at 0.9190 first. Otherwise, a new round of sell-off below 0.9090 could send the greenback to last August lows near 0.9020. NZDUSD seeks post-rally support The New Zealand dollar fell as risk sentiment subsided going into the weekend. The surge above the supply zone around 0.6850 has triggered a reversal fever after a month-long sideways action. As the RSI drops back into the neutrality area, buyers could be waiting to jump in at a discount. A pullback below 0.6840 has led to some profit-taking but as long as the price stays above 0.6780 the rebound is valid, or the kiwi could revisit the critical floor at 0.6700. A break above the recent high at 0.6890 would extend the rally to 0.6960. UK 100 consolidates gains The FTSE 100 finds support from the UK’s stronger-than-expected GDP. A break above the top of the previous consolidation range (7545) means a continuation of the current uptrend. Trend-followers may consider a pullback as an opportunity to stake in. Short-term sentiment remains bullish as long as the index is above 7470. A break above the immediate resistance at 7580 would extend the rally upward. A deeper retracement would test 7370 which used to be a major resistance from the double top on the daily chart.

Tesla gains on Friday as Nasdaq finished in the green. TSLA stock closes at $1049.61 for a gain of 1.75%. Tesla shares are still in a downtrend but holding above the key pivot. Tesla (TSLA) returned to the green on Friday as the NASDAQ took the crown for best performing index, while the Dow suffered a bank burnout. Bank stocks reported on Friday in the form of Citigroup (C), JPMorgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC), and the results were decidedly mixed. Citigroup and JPMorgan fell heavily and dragged the Dow down with them. Yields though remained under control, allowing the Nasdaq to breathe lighter and make some headway after recent losses. This helped Tesla back into the green, but the stock remains choppy and sideways in motion. Tesla Stock News The Wall Street Journal reported over the weekend that a Tesla lawyer asked Cooley LLP, an international law firm, to fire one of its lawyers who had previously worked at the US SEC. The lawyer in question had supposedly interviewed Elon Musk in the SEC investigation in 2018 into Musk after he claimed on Twitter that he had gotten funding in place to take Tesla private. The SEC investigation led to Elon Musk and Tesla each paying $20 million fines. According to the WSJ article, a Tesla lawyer asked Cooley LLP to fire the attorney late last year, but Cooley did not follow through on the request. Tesla has used alternative law firms on several cases since December. Tesla and Cooley LLP have not yet responded to CNBC requests for comment. This may add to pressure on the stock despite Friday's rebound. Earlier in the week, investors and Cybertruck fans were left disappointed with a further delay to the truck's production timeline release, which has now been pushed to 2023. Tesla Stock Forecast Irrespective of the news, we have an indecisive chart here. TSLA stock's most recent high was a lower one than the previous and has put in a series of lower lows. This means it is currently in a short-term downtrend. $980 is the key pivot that will signify more losses. Breaking $980 makes the target $886. Holding above $980, and the target is $1,200. However, we have a declining Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). The MACD has also crossed into negative territory. Tesla chart, daily

Bitcoin price rejuvenates its uptrend as it bounces off a 4-hour demand zone, extending from $41,843 to $42,707. Ethereum price produces a higher high, signaling a continuation of its uptrend. Ripple price revisits the demand zone, ranging from $0.694 to $0.753, as bulls fail to kick-start a rally. Bitcoin price reveals a bullish outlook albeit a slow one, providing altcoins with an opportunity to run free. The past week is a testament to the recent gains witnessed among many altcoins. While Ethereum continues to remain bullish, Ripple struggles to hold on. Bitcoin price pushes forward Bitcoin price produced a lower low after the January 13 swing high at $44,439 but managed to set a higher low, keeping the uptrend somewhat intact. As BTC bounces off a 4-hour demand zone, extending from $41,843 to $42,707, investors can expect the pioneer crypto to make a run for the previous week’s high at $47,609. This hurdle is present below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) At $48,590. BTC’s upside potential, though, at least in the short-term, seems to be capped at the aforementioned level. BTC/USD 4-hour chart If Bitcoin price fails to see a bullish reaction off of the $41,843 to $42,707 demand zone, it will indicate weakness among buyers. This lack of interest could allow bears to take control and push BTC down to $41,762 – a four-hour candlestick close below there will then invalidate the bullish thesis. This development could lead Bitcoin price lower, to retest the $39,87 support level. Ethereum price shows strength Ethereum price is in a similar situation to Bitcoin as it produced a higher low but failed to set up a higher high. As long as BTC remains bullish, ETH will follow suit. Market participants can, therefore, expect the smart contract token to make a run for the 200-day SMA at $3,475. Clearing this hurdle will open the path for Ethereum price to revisit the daily supply zone, extending from $3,675 to $3,846. The upper limit of this hurdle coincides with the 50-day SMA, indicating that a further uptrend is unlikely. ETH/USD 4-hour chart Regardless of the optimistic scenario, Ethereum price needs to hold above the weekly support level at $3,061 to see a meaningful uptrend. A breakdown of this foothold will remove confidence and instill doubt among buyers. A four-hour candlestick close below the demand zone’s lower limit at $2,927, however, will create a lower low, invalidating the bullish thesis. Ethereum price finds stable support as ETH targets $4,000 Ripple price lacks motivation Ripple price has been teetering on a daily demand zone, stretching from $0.693 to $0.753 since the December 4, 2021 crash. One can assume that this barrier has been weakening. Due to its correlation with BTC, however, XRP price is likely to rally 12% to retest the 50-day SMA at $0.844. The weakened demand zone could face destruction by a short-term bearish momentum, however, so investors should exercise caution with the remittance token. In some cases, Ripple price could overcome the immediate hurdle and make a run for the 200-day SMA at $0.954. XRP/USD 1-day chart On the other hand, if Ripple price produces a daily candlestick close below $0.693, it will create a lower low, invalidating the bullish thesis. This development could trigger a crash, where XRP price could revisit the $0.604 support level. XRP price looks bullish, targets $1

CD PROJEKT RED announces that the annual Winter Event has started in GWENT: The Witcher Card Game, with festive rewards and offers up for grabs for all players. GWENT's Winter Event is live right now and will end on January 11th at noon, CET. During this time players will be earning a special in-game resource called Pine Cones, acquired for logging in every day, completing daily quests, as well as winning matches in Standard, Seasonal, and Draft game modes. Once obtained, Pine Cones can then be exchanged for a swathe of themed vanities, including cardbacks, avatars and borders, titles — as well as both a leader and a coin skin! — via a dedicated page in the in-game Reward Book. Watch the Winter Event Trailer Additionally, owners of the Geralt leader skin will be able to take on two special contracts during the event, awarding those who complete them with the equippable Red Hat and Candy Sword trinkets for Geralt. Furthermore, for a limited time players can claim a Geralt-leader-skin-exclusive sword inspired by Netflix's The Witcher series — available for free to all until January 13th, in celebration of the second season's release.The holiday spirit has also spilled into the in-game store, where Shupe the Troll is currently hosting a special sale featuring the Midwinter Bundle and Frozen Bundle, both filled with merry items, as well as the Yule Board. Those who would also like to deck out Geralt with the Winter-Event-only trinkets, but don't yet have him in their collection, can purchase the witcher's legendary neutral leader skin, as it is up for grabs right now in the shop, too. Learn more about the Winter Event GWENT: The Witcher Card Game is available for free on PC via GOG.COM and Steam, Apple M1 Macs running macOS, as well as on Android and iOS. For more information on GWENT, visit playgwent.com. Source: CD Projekt

S&P 500 gave up opening gains that could have lasted longer – but the bear is still strong, and didn‘t pause even for a day or two. Defeated during the first hour, the sellers couldn‘t make much progress, and credit markets confirm the grim picture. There is a but, though – quality debt instruments turned higher, and maintained much of their intraday gains.And that could be a sign – in spite of the bearish onslaught driving the buyers back to the basement before the closing bell – that more buying would materialize to close this week, with consequences for S&P 500 as well. I would simply have preferred to see rising yields once again, that would be a great catalyst of further stock market selling. Now, the wisest course of action looks to be waiting for the upcoming upswing (one that didn‘t develop during the Asian session really), to get exhausted.Remember my yesterday‘s words:(…) The rising yields are all about betting on a really, really hawkish Fed – just how far are the calls for not 25, but 50bp hike this Mar? Inflation is still resilient (of course) but all it takes is some more hawkish statements that wouldn‘t venture out of the latest narrative line.Anyway, the markets aren‘t drinking the kool-aid – the yield curve continues flattening, which means the bets on Fed‘s misstep are on. True, the tightening moves have been quite finely telegraphed, but the markets didn‘t buy it, and were focused on the Santa Claus (liquidity-facilitated) rally instead – therefore, my Dec 20 warning is on. The clock to adding zero fresh liquidity, and potentially even not rolling over maturing securities (as early as Mar?) is ticking.And the run to commodities goes on, with $85 crude oil not even needing fresh conflict in Eastern Europe – the demand almost at pre-corona levels leaving supply and stockpiles in the dust, is fit for the job.With SPX short profits off the table, crude oil consolidating, and cryptos having second thoughts about the decline continuation, it‘s been precious metals that stole the spotlight yesterday – really great moves across the board to enjoy!Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 buyers are nowhere to be seen – what kind of reflexive rebound would we get next? The odds aren‘t arrayed for it to be reaching very high – yields are catching up even with financials...Credit MarketsHYG is likely to pause a little next, and the degree of its move relative to the quality debt instruments, would be telling. Rates are though going to keep rising, so keep looking for a temporary HYG stabilization only.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver keep catching fire, and are slowly breaking out of the unpleasantly long consolidation. The strongly bullish undertones are playing out nicely – these aren‘t yet the true celebrations.Crude OilCrude oil looks like it could pause a little here – the stellar run (by no means over yet) is attracting selling interest. The buyers are likely to pause for a moment over the next few days.CopperCopper is paring back on the missed opportunity to catch up – the red metal will be dragged higher alongside the other commodities, and isn‘t yet offering signs of true, outperforming strength.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum really are setting up a little breather, but I‘m not looking for bullish miracles to happen. Still, the buying interest was there yesterday, and that would influence the entry to the coming week (bullishly).SummaryS&P 500 upswing turned into a dead cat bounce pretty fast, and while we may see another attempt by the bulls, I think it would be rather short-lived. Think lasting a couple of days only. Not until there is a change in the credit markets, have the stock market bulls snowball‘s chance in hell. Commodities and especially precious metals, are well placed to keep reaping the rewards – just as I had written a week ago. For now, it‘s fun to be riding the short side in S&P 500 judiciously, and the time for another position opening, looks slowly but surely approaching. Let the great profits grow elsewhere in the meantime.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  Gold soared as investors got scared by reports of an allegedly impending military conflict. Was it worth reacting sharply to geopolitical factors? Gold has been performing quite nicely in January. As the chart below shows, its price increased from $1,806 at the end of December to around $1,820 this week, strengthening its position above $1,800. Yesterday (January 19, 2022), gold prices went sharply higher, jumping above $1,840, as one can see in the chart below. What happened? Investors got scared of the Russian bear and inflationary hydra. President Biden predicted that Russia would move into Ukraine. The threat of invasion and renewal of a conflict weakened risk appetite among investors. To complete the geopolitical picture, this week, North Korea fired missiles again (on Monday, the country conducted its fourth missile test of the year), while terrorists attacked the United Arab Emirates with drones. The heightened risk aversion could spur some demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. The yellow metal tends to benefit from greater uncertainty. However, investors should remember that geopolitical risks usually cause only a short-lived reaction. Investors also recalled the ongoing global inflationary crisis. Some news helped them wake up. In the U.K., inflation surged 5.4% in December, the highest since March 1992. Meanwhile, in Canada, inflation jumped 4.8%, also the fastest pace in 30 years. Additionally, crude oil prices have jumped to around $86.5 per barrel, the highest value since 2014, as the chart below shows. The timing couldn’t be worse, as inflation is already elevated, while higher oil implies higher CPI in the future. Gold should, therefore, welcome the rise in oil prices. On the other hand, it could prompt the Fed to react more forcefully and aggressively to tighten its monetary policy.   Implications for Gold What does the recent mini-rally imply for the gold market? Well, it’s never a good idea to draw far-reaching conclusions from short-term moves, especially those caused by geopolitical factors. Risk-offs and risk-on sentiments come and go. However, let’s do justice to gold. It hit a two-months high, more and more boldly settling in above $1,800. All this happened despite rising bond yields. As the chart below shows, the long-term real interest rates have increased from about -1.0% at the end of 2021 to about -0.6%. Gold’s resilience in the face of rising interest rates is praiseworthy. Having said that, investors shouldn’t forget that 2022 will be a year of the Fed’s tightening cycle, rising interest rates, and also a certain moderation in inflation. All these factors could be important headwinds for gold this year. However, investors may underestimate how the Fed’s monetary policy will impact market conditions. After all, the Fed’s hawkish stance also entails some risks for the financial markets and the overall economy. Practically, each tightening cycle in the past has led to an economic crisis. As a reminder, after four hikes in 2018, the Fed had to reverse its stance and cut them in 2019. The Fed signaled not only a few hikes this year, but also a reduction of its balance sheet. Given the enormous indebtedness of the economy and Wall Street’s addiction to easy money, it might be too much to swallow. Importantly, when the Fed is focused on fighting inflation, its ability to help the markets will be limited. I thought that such worries would arise later this year, supporting gold, but maybe the gold market has already started to price in the possibility of economic turbulence triggered by the Fed’s tightening cycle. Anyway, next week, the FOMC will gather for the first time in 2022, and it could be an important, insightful event for the gold market. Stay tuned! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

XAUUSD breaks resistance Gold surged over geopolitical tensions between the West and Russia over Ukraine. Following a three-week-long sideways grind, the break above the triple top at 1830 indicates strong commitment from the buy-side. 1850 is the next level to clear, which would lead to November’s peak at 1877. The RSI has shot into the overbought area, and some profit-taking could briefly drive the price lower. Buyers may see a pullback as an opportunity to join in. 1820 near the base of the recent rally is a key support in this case. AUDUSD seeks support The Australian dollar climbed back after the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2% in December. A surge above 0.7270 was the bulls’ attempt to initiate a reversal. As sellers covered their bets, the way might be open for a meaningful rebound. The follow-up correction met solid buying interest at 0.7170. Sentiment would remain upbeat as long as price action stays above this key support. 0.7290 is an important hurdle and its breach could trigger a runaway rally towards 0.7420. US 30 tests major support The Dow Jones 30 retreats as traders take profit ahead of next week’s Fed meeting. The index has given up all its gains from the late December rally and fell through the daily support at 34700. This bearish breakout could extend losses to the psychological level of 34000, a critical floor to prevent a deeper correction in the medium-term. The RSI’s oversold situation may attract some buying interest. Nonetheless, the bulls will need to lift offers around 35500 in a show of force, in order to turn sentiment around.

GameStop stock fails to ignite despite the gaming sector being in play. GameStop is a bystander retailer, while the big activity is game makers. GME stock remains bearish in our view despite a mid-week short squeeze attempt. GameStop (GME) stock surged in early January but has since slumped consistently. At least some volatility returned to the name. GameStop was the original meme stock but has been suffering of late as investors turn their backs on high growth and high-risk names. GameStop Stock News A pop of 7% on January 7 has been about as good as it gets so far this year for GameStop (GME) holders as the stock exhibits more signs of dwindling interest in the meme stock space. The Wall Street Journal did report on January 7 that GameStop was entering the NFT and cryptocurrency market. This has echoes of another meme stock, AMC. It may smack of desperation or even bad timing given the crypto and NFT craze has also retreated in line with meme stocks. Or it may be a shrewd move. Time will tell, but so far the shares have not given the news much traction. Interest did spike in GME on the back of the mega-deal from Microsoft (MSFT) offering up $69 billion in cash to buy Activision (ATVI), but GameStop is merely a powerless bystander in the acquisition fervor sweeping the gaming sector. GameStop (GME) jumped to the top of WallStreetBets mentions, but this has not seen the correlated share price uptick. In fact, GME shares are down 17% in a week. That takes losses so far for 2022 to nearly 30%. One year on and it does not look like history is going to repeat itself. Video game sales data out yesterday was not exactly comforting with the figure in December down 1% following November's 10% fall. GameStop Stock Forecast The chart is still highly bearish, which was triggered after the double-top formation. This played out and reached our $150 target and then some. Now GME has broken the $118 level, which brings $86 firmly into focus as the next major target. Obviously, $100 along the way will generate headlines, but this is purely psychological. We also note the volume gap from $110 to $70 that could accelerate the move. Bearish unless $160 is broken. GameStop (GME) chart, daily

  The S&P 500 index broke below its early December low. Are we in a new bear market or is this still just a downward correction? The broad stock market index lost 1.10% on Thursday following its Wednesday’s decline of around 1%. The S&P 500 index fell below the 4,500 level and it was the lowest since mid-October. Investors reacted to quarterly earnings releases and further Russia-Ukraine tensions. Late December – early January consolidation along the 4,800 level was a topping pattern and the index retraced all of its December’s record-breaking advance. This morning the market is expected to open 0.4% lower and it will most likely extend the downtrend. The nearest important resistance level is now at around 4,500-4,525, marked by the recent support level. On the other hand, the support level is now at around 4,450. The S&P 500 broke below an over month-long upward trend line this week, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract Broke Below its Previous Lows Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. The market broke below its previous local lows along the 4,520 level. There was a chance that entering a long position would be justified here, but any short-term bullish scenario seems invalidated now. On the other hand, it may be too late to enter a short position right now, because of some clear technical oversold conditions. (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.4% lower this morning, so it will likely extend a short-term downtrend. We may see another intraday rebound, but there have been no confirmed positive signals so far. Yesterday we’ve seen a convincing rally, but it failed and the market sold off to new lows. The coming quarterly earnings releases (next week we’ll have MSFT, AAPL, TSLA among others) remain a bullish factor for stocks, but there is still a lot of uncertainty concerning Russia-Ukraine tensions. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 reached yet another new low yesterday and it was the lowest since mid-October. Stocks will most likely bounce at some point, but any rally may be short-lived. In our opinion no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

S&P 500 gave up yet again the opening gains – the bear didn‘t pause even for a day or two. Buyers defeated during the first hours, and credit markets are once again leaning the bearish way. Risk-off rules even if long-dated Treasuries rose for a day. Tech investors are selling first, and asking questions later, with consumer discretionaries, financials, and also energy hit. The washout S&P 500 bottom is approaching, and our fresh short profits are growing...Talking profits, after a one-day consolidation in precious metals, time has come to cash in on crude oil gains before the decline questioning $86 – that‘s second outsized gains trade in a row there. Black gold won‘t likely be held down for too long, and the same goes for copper knocking on $4.60 for the third time shortly. Excellent for the bottom line.This is the season of real assets (commodities and precious metals), and of the stock market correction still playing out, and driving open crypto short profits alike. Much to enjoy across the board as my fresh portfolio performance chart (check out my homesite) reached a solid new high yesterday – it‘s one year today since I launched my site. Tremendous journey building on prior own strength – thank you very much!Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 buyers still can‘t get their act together – the momentum remains to the downside until credit markets turn and tech bleeding stops. This can happen as early as Monday or Tuesday – I remain watching closely for signs of a high-confidence setup to perhaps take.Credit MarketsHYG pause didn‘t last long, and the volume keeps being elevated without credible signs of buying interest. What‘s more, the credit market posture is decidedly risk-off.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver are likely to pause a little, the miners say – but the propensity to rise is there, even this early in the tightening cycle. I‘m looking for dips to be eagerly bought.Crude OilCrude oil looks like seeing the bullish resolve tested soon, and odds are the dip would be relatively quickly bought. Still, the pace of steep upswings is likely to slow down next, I say so even as I continue being medium-term bullish ($90 is doable).CopperCopper is paring back on the missed opportunity to catch up, and it‘s good the red metal managed to rise even if quite a few other commodities stalled. Waking up alongside silver, finally?Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum little breather is over, the bears did strike again – and it may not be over yet, really not.SummaryThe opening sentence of yesterday‘s summary proved very true, and even faster that I thought possible - „S&P 500 upswing turned into a dead cat bounce pretty fast, and while we may see another attempt by the bulls, I think it would be rather short-lived. Think lasting a couple of days only.“ With the bears in the driving seat overnight – on the heels of a risk-off turn in the credit markets – we‘re likely to witness today another selling attempt.Another yesterday mentioned conclusion remains true as well - „Commodities and especially precious metals, are well placed to keep reaping the rewards – just as I had written a week ago. For now, it‘s fun to be riding the short side in S&P 500 judiciously... Let the great profits grow elsewhere in the meantime.“ Let‘s just add that cryptos are making us smile today, too.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  The precious metals still do pirouettes on the trading floor, but they can stumble in their choreography. The bears are just waiting for it. With the GDX ETF soaring on significant volume on Jan. 19, the senior miners had a renewed pep in their step. With gold, silver, and mining stocks all dancing to the same beat, the precious metals garnered all of the bullish attention. However, with the trio known to cut their performances short as soon as investors arrive, will the mood music remain so sanguine? Well, for one, the GDX ETF has a history of peaking when the crowd enters the party. For example, I marked with the blue vertical dashed lines and blue arrows below how large daily spikes in volume often coincide with short-term peaks. Moreover, with another ominous event unfolding on Jan. 19, historical data implies that we’re much closer to the top than the bottom. To explain, I wrote on Jan. 20: From the technical point of view, we just saw another day similar to the other days that I marked with vertical dashed lines and black arrows. Those days were either right at the tops or not far from them. As much as yesterday’s (7%!) rally looks bullish, taking a look at the situation from a broad perspective provides us with the opposite – bearish – implications. The zig-zag scenario is being realized as well. The GDX ETF moved to the upper border of the rising trend channel. Also, doesn’t it remind you of something? Hint: it happened at a similar time of the year. Yes, the current price/volume action is similar to what we saw in early 2021. The RSI was above 60, a short-term rally that was preceded by a bigger decline, and a strong daily rally on huge volume at the end of the corrective rally. We’ve seen it all now, and we saw it in early 2021. Please see below: What’s more, the senior miners’ fatigue is already present. For example, the GDX ETF declined by 1.40% on Jan. 20, and the index ended the session only $0.30 above its 2021 close. Likewise, the senior miners failed to rally above the upper trendline of their ascending channel (drawn with the blue lines above). As a result, the price action resembles an ABC zigzag pattern, and while the short-term outlook is less certain, the medium-term outlook is profoundly bearish. As further evidence, the HUI Index’s weekly chart provides some important clues. For example, despite the profound rally on Jan. 19, the index’s stochastic indicator still hasn’t recorded a buy signal. Moreover, the HUI Index dropped after reaching its 50-week moving average, and the ominous rejection mirrors 2013. Back then, the index approached its 50-week moving average, then suffered a pullback, and then suffered a monumental decline. As a result, is this time really different? Remember – history tends to rhyme, and this time the analogies from the past favor a bearish forecast for gold stocks. Turning to the GDXJ ETF, the junior miners were off to the races on Jan. 19. However, the size of the rally is actually smaller than what we witnessed in early 2021. Moreover, when the short-term sugar high ended back then, optimism turned to pessimism and the GDXJ ETF sank to new lows. Thus, with the junior miners’ 2021 story one of lower highs and lower lows, 2022 will likely result in more of the same. Please see below: Finally, the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index ($BPGDM) isn’t at levels that trigger a major reversal. The Index is now at 30. However, far from a medium-term bottom, the latest reading is still more than 20 points above the 2016 and 2020 lows. Likewise, when the BPGDM hit 30 in 2013, the HUI Index was already in the midst of its medium-term downtrend (similar to what we witnessed in 2021). However, the milestone was far from the final low. With material weakness persisting and a lasting bottom not forming until the end of 2015/early 2016, further downside for gold (and silver) likely lies ahead. For context, it’s my belief that the precious metals will bottom when the BPGDM hits zero – and perhaps when it remains there for some time. In conclusion, gold, silver, and mining stocks put on quite a show on Jan. 19. However, with their bullish rhythm known to turn bearish in an instant, investors should proceed with caution. Moreover, the data shows that when investors rush to buy the precious metals, their over-enthusiasm results in medium-term weakness, not strength. As a result, the trio’s declines likely have more room to run before long-term buying opportunities emerge later in 2022. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  Recently, oil prices hit their highest levels in 7 years. Despite this, we are witnessing a surprising increase in US inventories. Why is that? Energy Market Updates Crude oil retreated this morning in the pre-US trading session, after another volatile day on Thursday. It was followed by the weekly release of US inventory figures that surprised the market with an increase in stocks published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Meanwhile, market participants were expecting a drop close to 1 million barrels, which implies a slowdown in demand. This imbalance has led to soaring prices for petroleum products and distillates, which will add pressure on households and businesses already struggling with higher levels of inflation. Also, as I mentioned in more detail on Wednesday, there are also geopolitical tensions in various regions carrying some uncertainty, which is an additional turbine to propel oil prices. (Source: Investing.com) RBOB Gasoline (RBH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) WTI Crude Oil (CLH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Do you think that black gold will be worth three figures ($100) anytime soon? In the first quarter of 2022, maybe? Let us know in the comments. That’s all folks for today. Have a nice weekend! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Shiba Inu price sees bears drilling down on an important area of support. SHIB price could see a nose dive reaction later today should the US session see accelerated selloffs. A break below the 200-day SMA could hold 70% of losses before plenty of support is found. Shiba Inu (SHIB) price continues to be controlled by bears after the dead-cat bounce in stock markets yesterday evening. With the Nasdaq closing sharply lower, giving up earlier gains, cryptocurrencies are being dragged into a selloff on its coattails, and bearish headwinds persist. Expect a further continuation of downside tests, with $0.00002576, up next, and a break below that opening up the possibility of SHIB price being decimated towards $0.00000655 – a 70% devaluation. Shiba Inu hanging by a thread before price action could collapse Shiba Inu price is in a vortex along with other financial market assets, after the US session saw a180 degree U-turn to the downside. The ASIA PAC and European sessions are also sharply lower and with risk assets being slashed across the board. This is being reflected in cryptocurrencies where a selloff is also taking place. At the moment, SHIB price is drilling down to $0.00002482, a level where the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the monthly S1 support level intersect.This should offer plenty of support, but with current market sentiment so negative, it is not a given that investors will want to step in and support the trade. A break lower would see price next pause at $0.00001623, the S2 monthly support. The level of the S2 does not hold any historical relevance, however, making it relatively weak, and the only key level further down looks to be $0.00000607, just above the S3 monthly support, and the starting point of a Fibonacci retracement. Depending on how the US session will unfold, expect this to be on the cards in the days to come if markets enter into correction territory or even into a recession. The result would be SHIB shedding 70% of its market value from where it is currently trading. SHIB/USD daily chart Often enough, markets see an uptick after a gloomy negative day like yesterday. Investors start to come in and pick up interesting assets at a discount, and markets finally get to a point where a revaluation trade is made. This could be the same for Shiba Inu, with the 200-day SMA holding its ground, supporting price action, and a bullish candle starting to form with a test at the 55-day SMA around $0.00003395.

USDCHF tests daily support The Swiss franc rallied as traders poured into safe-haven currencies. The pair previously bounced off the critical floor (0.9090) on the daily chart. An oversold RSI in this demand zone brought in some buying interest. However, sentiment remains downbeat with the greenback struggling to clear offers around 0.9180. A fall below said support would trigger a new round of sell-off towards 0.9020 as late buyers rush to the exit. On the upside, a bullish breakout would open the door to the recent peak at 0.9275. CADJPY breaks key support The Canadian dollar slipped after disappointing retail sales in November. A bearish RSI divergence at the recent high (91.15) indicates a loss of momentum in the rally. The first drop below 90.60 prompted some buyers to bail out. Then the rebound met stiff selling pressure at 91.90. And this is a sign of exhaustion after a four-week-long uptrend. The loonie now has fallen through the major support at 90.60, with 89.80 as the target. As the RSI goes oversold, traders may look to sell the next bounce near 91.05. UK 100 tumbles through supports The FTSE 100 stalls as appetite subsides across risk assets. An overbought RSI on the daily chart suggests over-extension after a month-long rally. A pullback is necessary for the bulls to catch their breath. A drop below 7530 and then 7470 further weighs on short-term sentiment as profit-taking intensifies. The index is about to test 7380, a fresh demand zone from the November-December double top on the daily timeframe. The bulls need to reclaim 7540 before a rebound could gain traction.

Nike reported earnings after the close on Monday. NKE stock is higher after a beat on revenue and earnings per share. Nike says Vietnam production levels are now back to 80% of prior volumes. Nike (NKE) seems to have yielded to its longtime trademark – "Just Do It". The company certainly did that on Monday as it unveiled another strong set of results. Not only that, but concerns over supplies from Vietnam were quieted, and the shares are likely to open higher on Tuesday. Nike stock news Earnings per share came in at $0.83, ahead of the $0.63 estimate. This was a significant beat. Revenue was also ahead at $11.36 billion versus estimates for $11.25 billion. Nike shares popped over 2% on the earnings release. With global equity markets looking a bit healthier on Tuesday morning, expect more gains for NKE stock price as the session progresses. Recent concerns over Vietnam supplies had held Nike stock back. Vietnam is a major textile supplier globally, and it was not just Nike that was affected. A covid outbreak had forced numerous closures. However, Nike outlined in the earnings release that Vietnam production levels were now back up to 80% of preclosure levels. The company said it expects revenue to grow in the low single digits for Q3 in line with consensus at just over 2%. Nike has mentioned that input costs are rising and is planning for supply chain costs to rise. Nike did say that it expects margins to rise 150 basis points. This margin gain is being driven by a direct selling online model that Nike has been adopting. Nike stock forecast Nike is not cheap. The stock I mean, not the sneakers! The company trades on a relatively high price/earnings multiple of 45. This is a significant premium to its peers and reflective of Nike's leadership position. Technically, things do not look too positive in the longer-term outlook either. We have a very clear double top in place from August and November. It remains to be seen if Nike shares will be able to hold above resistance at $164-$166 from the 9 and 21-day moving averages. We doubt it and would be fading any rally. Longer term we have a falling Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator. There is big support coming from the 200-day moving average. Look how well that worked in late September. Currently, the 200-day is at $152. A solid break of that and Nike stock will look to fill the gap created by earnings on June 24. That support is at $134. Failure to fill that gap will be a sign to get back in again, just like in late September. Retracements are opportunities to identify a longer-term trend at play. A retracement that does not create a new significant low is obviously bullish. How to identify one is the tricky part. Given that this is a longer-term time frame, the trick is actually to be slightly late to the party and wait for confirmation. NKE 1-day chart

The cryptocurrency fear and greed index was down to 11 on Sunday and slightly up to 13 by early Monday. Crypto market capitalisation lost another 1.1% overnight to $1.61 trillion, the lowest since August. As is often the case with prolonged sell-offs, altcoins are falling with acceleration to the first cryptocurrency, causing BTC's share gains, which already stands at 41.3% against lows of 39.3% in mid-January. Bitcoin's share of 40% seems like a turning point, twice triggering a correction in the crypto market. This level stood like an informal threshold that optimism about altcoins had gone too far. However, the rise in bitcoin's share does little to help its price. We saw the sixth consecutive bearish daily candlestick on Monday morning, and the price rolled back to $35K. The bears may well be able to sell the price down to $32.5K, closing the gap of July and returning the rate to last summer's support area. Alarmingly, the sharp reversal on Friday was not followed by any meaningful bounce. Some observers point out that this is a worrying signal, suggesting further market declines, as we have not seen a final capitulation. Without capitulation, the markets will remain with an overhang of sellers. The price of ether has fallen to $2400, which is less than half of its peak price in November. Events are developing in a bearish scenario, so far broadly repeating what we saw in 2018 in terms of overall sentiment. Long-term buyers can avoid buying at prices above 30k for bitcoin and 2k for ether. We believe long-term investors will look out for purchases in the 20-30k per bitcoin area. Whether these purchases will be at the upper or lower boundary depends, among other things, on the situation in the stock markets. The return of buyers there will support the demand for risk among institutional investors. But as long as we see only steady selling from them, it is too early to talk about buying.

  You don't have to be a fortune teller to predict some of the precious metals’ behavior in the market. Any incoming signs take the shape of a bear. What a signal-rich week that was! At least if you’re interested in forecasting gold and predicting silver prices. The USD Index rallied, but that was the least interesting of the important developments, as it had already reversed during the preceding week. So, the fact that the USD Index continued its medium-term uptrend last week is not that noteworthy. It needs to be said, though, as that continues to be an important factor for the future of the precious metals market. To be clear – the implications for the PM sector are bearish. What about gold, the key precious metal? Gold is so far almost unchanged this year, despite the initial decline and the subsequent rally. Overall, gold is up by $3.20 so far in 2022, which is next to nothing. Gold rallied on a supposedly dangerous situation regarding Ukraine, but it failed to rally above the combination of resistance lines and very little changed technically. On a side note, I would like to remind you that, based on our own reliable source in Ukraine (one of our team members is located there), the risk of military conflict (in particular, a severe one) is low, and it seems that the market’s reaction was greatly exaggerated. Anyway, moving back to technicals, let’s keep this $3.20-up-this-year statistic in mind while we take a look at what’s going on in silver and mining stocks. Silver declined on Friday, but it’s still up by $0.97 so far in 2022. This means that on a short-term basis, silver greatly outperformed gold. What’s up with mining stocks? The GDX ETF – a proxy for generally senior mining stocks – is down this year by $0.38, which is 1.19%. At the same time, the GDXJ ETF is down by $0.87, which is 2.07%. In other words: While silver is outperforming gold on a short-term basis, gold mining stocks are underperforming it. Junior mining stocks (our short position) are declining more than senior miners, and in fact, they are declining the most out of the entire precious metals sector. Silver’s outperformance, accompanied by gold miners weakness, is a powerful bearish combination in the case of the entire precious metals sector. If the general stock market is going to slide, silver and mining stocks (in particular, junior mining stocks) are likely to decline in a rather extreme manner. The thing is… We just saw something in the general stock market that we haven’t seen since early 2020 – right before the massive decline that triggered the huge declines in the precious metals sector. The RSI Index just moved below 30 for the first time since pre-slide moments. Just like what we saw back then, the S&P 500 is now declining on increasing volume. Yes, RSI below 30 is generally considered oversold territory, but the direct analogies take precedence over the “usual” way in which things work in markets in general. In this case, the situation could get from oversold to extremely oversold. Let’s keep in mind that stocks declined very sharply in 2020. One could say that times were different, but were they really? The key difference is that the monetary authorities are now already after the bullish money-printing cycle and are handling inflation by aiming to increase interest rates, while they had been preparing to cut them in 2020. The situation regarding the pandemic is not that different either. Sure, back in 2020, it was all new, we had massive lockdowns and there was great uncertainty regarding… pretty much everything. Now, the situation is not entirely unexpected, but given the explosive nature of new COVID-19 cases (likely due to the Omicron variant), it’s still quite new and uncertain. The uncertainty is not as great as it was back in 2020, but then again, now we’re facing monetary tightening, not dramatic dovish actions. Thus, I wouldn’t exclude a situation in which we really see a repeat of the early-2020 performance, where the declines are sharp and huge. The technicals in the precious metals market have been pointing to that outcome for months anyway, especially the long-term HUI Index chart that I’ve been discussing previously. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Cardano's price action is slipping below the monthly S1 and crucial historical support. Once broken below this vital support, an area of 30% losses could be triggered. Expect bulls to await the FED meeting later this week before engaging in the market. Cardano (ADA) price action is not seeing the turn in sentiment that was expected with the start of a new trading week. Geopolitical talks are ramping up again this Monday regarding Russia, and investors are awaiting details of monetary tightening by the FED later this week, making investors an absent party in the cryptocurrency market for the first few days of the week. As $1.01 is under fire, expect a break below to open the next leg lower towards $0.69, shedding another 30% of the price value for the altcoin. Cardano price sees investors absent in the build up to the FED rate decision Cardano participants seem to be split in half, with only sellers and bears present in the market, while bulls and investors remain on the sideline. The biggest reasons for this are the political rhetoric on Russia that is ramping up again this morning after statements that NATO and the US would send in more military material and troops. Financial markets, meanwhile, are awaiting the outcome of the FED monetary policy meeting Wednesday. These two tail risks keep price action muted or further to the downside, with investors sidelined. ADA this morning is drilling down on the monthly S1 support level and the historical $1.01 level that goes back to March 05. Once this breaks, expect not much support to be present until $0.69 where the monthly S2 support level kicks in at around $0.75, but the most significant historical level is at $0.69 from February 06. Expect buyers to come in there as that would mean that ADA price action is back at 0% on a Year-To-Date (YTD) performance. ADA/USD daily chart As the FED holds the keys for a turn in sentiment short-term, expect a pop higher to unfold very quickly. A knee jerk reaction would wash out many short positions and bring price action quickly back towards $1.40, at the level of the monthly pivot and the green ascending trend line. Should the message from the FED by Wednesday be very dovish and in favour of risk-on sentiment, expect a possible test of $1.68 further to the upside for this week.

GameStop stock stages a dead cat bounce on Friday. GME stock closes up nearly 4% on Friday as market freefalls. More losses are likely on Monday as momentum fades and meme is massacred. GameStop (GME) managed to outperform the market significantly on Friday. The meme stock king closed nearly 4% higher at $106.36 despite the main indices closing sharply in the red. However, this was merely a dead cat bounce, and we will outline our reasoning below. GameStop Stock News Nothing too significant behind Friday's outperformance. GameStop (GME) shares had suffered eight consecutive days of losses. Statistically, an up day was becoming more and more likely. GameStop passed a few milestones without much fanfare or reaction from the stock price. Social media traders attempted to play up the one-year anniversary of the GameStop pop, and CEO Ryan Cohen joined in. However, the stock slid. An announcement of a pivot into the NFT space was also met by indifference after a quick surge from the share price. Despite GME spending much of last week near the top of social media mentions, it failed to hook any buyers. The market has little time for risk at present, and speculative meme stocks are getting hit hard so far this year. As we have mentioned, this may be a good thing and avert a full-blown bubble bursting, akin to 2000. The NFT announcement did see a brief pop, but that merely presented a fresh selling opportunity. Year to date, GME is now down nearly 30% and is likely to get worse. The main trading lesson of momentum trading is to get out quickly when momentum stops or stalls. This is not investing or buy-and-hold. This is the realm of quick scalping and risk control. Momentum has collapsed in retail names. Witness falling volumes, falling single share volumes, lower retail sentiment, and drastically lower call option volume: all signs of falling momentum. GameStop Stock Forecast $100 will be broken soon, possibly today or Tuesday. That will lead to some stop-loss triggering as people are herd animals and love round numbers. There will be plenty of stops sitting just below $100. $86 is the target thereafter. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) still has more room to run before being overbought. Breaking $86 is big. That was the retest following the power surge higher back in February pf last year. Below $86 volume thins out, and there is a volume gap until $50. GameStop (GME) chart, daily

Bitcoin will create, not destroy BTC in US-Dollar, monthly chart, no rush: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of January 25th, 2022. All the typical fears came forward after last week’s price decline in the crypto space. Fears on why to get out of one’s bitcoin hodls. Even to walk away from the idea of bitcoin being a good store of value. But the emotional decision in market participation is often the wrong choice to come out ahead. Bitcoin will not be regulated away. With a near 100 billion tax revenue, bitcoin is unlikely to be banned in the USA. It has established itself in size as an income stream that no one could afford to give up. The monthly chart above shows that after the recent double top bitcoin´s two year strong up move has seen three months of a price decline to the 50% Fibonacci retracement line. To the right of the chart, we portray two fictitious candles as we see a likelihood of the future to unfold over the next two months.   BTC in US-Dollar, weekly chart, sideways to up: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of January 25th, 2022. On January 20th, the Federal Reserve Board released a discussion paper that examines the pros and cons of a potential U.S. central bank digital currency. News like this shakes up investor’s minds, fearing possible conversions where fiat currency savings might lose some of their value. On top, massive fear ruled the market over the last few days and weeks, a time when professionals know that opportunities are just around the corner. A look at the weekly chart reveals that the right top of the monthly double top had a substructure of a head and shoulders formation. Last week, the shoulder line broke and sent prices plummeting for a near 22% loss. Prices find themselves now in a value zone. In the histogram to the right of the chart, we see a fractal volume analysis. This analysis suggests supply in the price zone between US$36,000 and US$31,000. BTC in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, Bitcoin will create, not destroy: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of January 25th, 2022. As much as we expect a sideways zone for four to eight weeks before bitcoin prices head significantly higher, we already attempted three long trades on a daily time frame after prices entered into the value zone pointed out on the previous chart. Our approach of position building thanks to a quad exit strategy exploit low-risk entry points. Consequently, we were able in the past to catch bitcoin long-term trades near their price lows. News has more than once in the past accelerated price up moves for bitcoin in an unexpected fashion. As a result, we are actively scanning for low-risk opportunities already now. The price moves marked in white show how prices decline quickly in bitcoin, while typically trading sideways most of the time. Fortunately, rising prices act just the same way. The volume profile to the right of the chart shows four significant supply zones. (marked in orange dotted horizontal lines.) Bitcoin will create, not destroy: The good news is that government’s conversion of fiat money to digital might scare people into fleeing with their savings into bitcoin. Henceforth, they further stabilize this payment method. We mention this possible future for bitcoin since changes could be rapid, significant, and surprising. Consequently, bitcoin might find itself in a fast uptrend with high price targets to be expected. We also want to point out the nature of your participation in long-term bitcoin acquisitions. You are not only a speculator on a perfect investment, but also a holder of a positive value. A principle value that protects your freedom of purchasing power. A purchasing power that isn’t transparent allows you to conduct business as you please. Transactions without a controlling force casting a shadow over your choices. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|January 25th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

S&P 500 closed below the 200-day moving average – unheard of. But similarly to the turn in credit markets on Wednesday, the bulls can surprise shortly as the differential between HYG and TLT with LQD is more pronounced now. The field is getting clear, the bulls can move – and shortly would whether or not we see the autumn lows tested next. Now that my target of 4,400 has been reached (the journey to this support has been a more one-sided event than anticipated), 4,300 are next in the bears sight. The bearish voice and appetite is growing, which may call for a little caution in celebrating the downswings next. Relief rally is approaching, even if not immediately and visibly here yet. All I am waiting for, is a convincing turn in the credit markets, which we haven‘t seen yet. The dollar is likely to waver in the medium-term, and that‘s what‘s helping the great and profitable moves in commodities, and reviving precious metals. Crypto short profits are likewise growing – the real question is when the tech slide would stop (getting closer), and how much would financials rebound as well. Not worried about energy – the oil dip would turn out a mere blip. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 buyers are nowhere to be seen, volume isn‘t yet at capitulation levels – rebound off increasingly oversold levels is approaching. Tech melting down faster than value is to be expected – look for consumer staples to do fine too, not just the sectors mentioned above. As written on Friday, the turn in bleeding in credit markets and tech may stop as early as Monday or Tuesday – I remain watching closely for signs of a high-confidence setup to perhaps take. Credit Markets HYG paused for a day while quality debt instruments rose – that‘s still risk-off, but symptomatic of the larger battle and buying interest at these levels already. Could presage a respite in stocks during the regular session next. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver indeed paused a little – in spite of the miners weakness, that‘s no reversal. Most likely only a temporary correction within a developing uptrend. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls are finally getting tested, and by the look of oil stocks, it‘s not going to be a test reaching too far. Not even volume rose on the day – look for price stabilization followed by another upswing. Copper Copper had actually a hidden bullish day – a good consolidation of prior gains. While the volume isn‘t pointing the clearly bearish way, the amplitude of the move can be repeated next. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum Sunday rally fizzled out, and the downswing doesn‘t look to be yet over as another day of panic across the board is ahead. No signs from cryptos that the slide is stopping now. Summary S&P 500 bulls are readying a surprise – the long string of red days is coming to a pause. Credit markets turning a bit risk-on coupled with a tech pause and financials revival (not to mention consumer staples and energy) would be the recipe to turn the tide. We‘re in a large S&P 500 range, and got quite near its lower band at around 4,300. The short rides are to be wound down shortly, and that will coincide with another commodities run higher. Look to precious metals likewise not to disappoint while cryptos continue struggling at the moment. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

GBPUSD remains under pressure The sterling struggles as global markets remain risk-off. A limited rebound has fought to hold above 1.3570 and the sell-off accelerated after a bearish breakout. The pair is testing a previous low at 1.3440 which sits along the 30-day moving average. There could be buying interest in this congestion area after the RSI plunged into the oversold band. 1.3570 is now a fresh resistance, then the bulls will need to lift 1.3660 before they could turn sentiment around. On the other hand, a deeper correction may send the price to 1.3400. AUDUSD in bearish reversal The Australian dollar recovered after the Q4 CPI beat expectations. However, the latest rally took a bearish turn after the price slipped below 0.7170. The lack of commitment to hold onto recent gains suggests a weak risk appetite. A fall below the daily support at 0.7130 further weighs on the Aussie and prompts buyers to bail out. The RSI’s oversold situation helped lift the pair temporarily. Nonetheless, the bears might be eager to sell into strength near 0.7210. 0.7080 would be the next stop as the trend turns south. GER 40 tests critical support The Dax 40 plunges amid rising tensions in Ukraine. The index has given up all gains from the rebound in late December and cut through the major demand zone around 15070. The RSI’s repeatedly oversold situation attracted a buying-the-dips crowd. Nevertheless, there is no sign of improvement in the market mood. And price action has not stabilized yet. A grind of last October’s low at 14820 would test the bulls’ resolve in the medium-term. On the upside, 15600 is the first hurdle to lift.

Tough call as select S&P 500 sectors came back to life, but credit markets are a bit inconclusive. Some more selling today before seeing a rebound on Wednesday‘s FOMC (I‘m leaning towards its message being positively received, and no rate hike now as that‘s apart from the Eastern Europe situation the other fear around). VIX looks to have topped yesterday, and coupled with the commodities and precious metals relative resilience (don‘t look at cryptos where I took sizable short profits in both Bitcoin and Ethereum yesterday), sends a signal of upcoming good couple of dozen points rebound in the S&P 500. Taking a correct view at the hightened, emotional market slide yesterday, is through the portfolio performance – as you can see via clicking the link, yesterday‘s setup needn‘t and shouldn‘t be anyone‘s make or break situation. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 buyers stepped in, and carving out a nice lower knot today is the minimum expectation that the bulls can have. The reversal is still very young and vulnerable. Credit Markets HYG reversed, but isn‘t in an uptrend yet – there is just a marginal daily outperformance of quality debt instruments. More is needed. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver are only pausing – in spite of the miners move to the downside at the moment. HUI and GDX will catch up – they‘re practically primed to do so over the medium-term. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls are still getting tested, and oil stocks stabilized on a daily basis. Some downside still remains, but nothing dramatic – the volume didn‘t even rise yesterday. Copper Copper declined, but didn‘t meaningfully lead lower – the downswing was actually bought, and low 4.40s look to be well defended at the moment. More fear striking, would change the picture, but we aren‘t there yet. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum reversed, but in spire of the volume, look to need more time to bottom out – and I wouldn‘t be surprised if that included another decline. Summary S&P 500 bulls would get tested today again, and at least a draw would be a positive result, as yesterday‘s tech upswing is more likely to be continued tomorrow than today – that‘s how it usually goes after sizable (think 5%) range days. The table is set for an upside surprise on FOMC tomorrow – the tantrum coupled with war fears bidding up the dollar, is impossible to miss. Best places to be in remain commodities and precious metals, and the coming S&P 500 upswing looks to be a worthwhile opportunity in the making, too – on a short-term and nimble basis. So, I‘m more in the glass half full camp going into tomorrow. Anyway, let‘s take the portfolio view discussed in the opening part of today‘s article. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

GameStop stock crashes but recovers in the afternoon. GameStop shares close nearly 6% lower on Monday. GME shares remain top of WallStreetBets interest list. GameStop (GME) stock likes volatility, and meme traders should certainly be used to it by now, but perhaps not the type that was evident yesterday. GameStop shares crashed below $100 and kept on going before a broad-based afternoon rally helped GME stock recover to close just above the psychological $100 level. GameStop Stock News Again we find ourselves writing about a stock with significant movement based solely on price action. There is little in the way of actual hard news flow. GameStop stock has not had a good start to the year, but despite this it remains one of the top trending stocks across most social media platforms. This has partly to do with loyalty and partly to do with the one-year anniversary of the GameStop saga. However, for the most part traders are fixated on the big picture theme of us versus them that captured the whole argument. GameStop is now down over 30% so far in 2022. GameStop Stock Forecast We remain bearish on this one, which I know many loyal holders may not want to hear. We have to focus on the chart and what we can take from that. Loyalty, if not profitable, is pointless to a trader. Emotion should always be controlled. Breaking $100 was psychological and led to some stops likely triggering. We had identified $86 as strong support for the last few weeks, and GME shares more or less bounced perfectly from it yesterday. GME stock bottomed out at $86.29, so we can take some kudos for that. But now where? Holding $86 was actually pretty important as below is a big volume gap that would likely see an acceleration toward $70. Holding gives some hope of a rebound, but $118.59 remains the short-term pivot for us. Below here bears are in charge. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) are both still following price lower, so there is no sign of any divergence or oversold conditions just yet. GameStop (GME) chart, daily

Bitcoin price is not yet ready for an uptrend as bulls cannot keep price above $36,709. Although BTC price posted a bullish candle yesterday, investors are still concerned and cannot look beyond the FED meeting tomorrow. BTC could shed another 10% towards $32,649 before investors go in massively for the long. Bitcoin (BTC) price is still not yet set for a rebound as bears can trip bulls and push the price back below the pivotal level at $36,709. As markets are trying to catch a breather, it does not look like bears will be going away that easily and could pressure BTC price action to the downside. Expect a nervous session to unfold with price swinging back and forth at that pivotal level, but ultimately likely to break to the downside towards $32,649, with a loss of 10% on the day. Bitcoin price is set for a nervous session Bitcoin saw bulls coming in strong once price action slipped briefly below the monthly S2 at $33,742. Bulls bought everything in sight and pushed price action back up above $36,709 but failed to safely position the trade for a further uptick in the coming trading session. As BTC price is already undergoing some profit-taking, it looks as if investors are still awaiting confirmation that the pain trade is over. BTC price will probably trade a nervous session today, as markets will want to wait for the FED meeting later tomorrow and will not want to preposition for the possibility the FED disappoints or delivers an even more hawkish message. Expect choppy price action around $36,709, and possibly another leg lower towards the monthly S2 at $33,742. A test and break below yesterday's low at $32,649 is not an impossibility if Nasdaq sheds multiple percentages points off its value again. BTC/USD daily chart If global sentiment changes and pushes US equities in the green later this afternoon, expect a bullish flood to come into cryptocurrencies. That would see BTC price testing $39,780 to the upside with the monthly S1 support as resistance from any upside. If the rally is large and broad, expect even $44,088 to be on the cards, and for that to erase a large part of the downturn since the beginning of this year.

EURUSD grinds daily support The US dollar inches lower as traders take profit ahead of the Fed meeting. The euro’s struggle to stay above 1.1360 indicates buyers’ weak interest in holding onto previous gains. The latest rebounds have failed to clear the former support that has turned into a resistance. A break below the previous consolidation range and daily support (1.1280) could send the pair to 1.1235. The RSI’s oversold situation attracted some buying interest. But the bulls will need to lift 1.1360 first before a reversal could become a reality. EURCHF attempts reversal The safe-haven Swiss franc retreats as global panic selling takes a breather. A bullish RSI divergence shows a slowdown in the sell-off momentum. Then a rally above 1.0355 has prompted some sellers to cover, taking the heat off the single currency. A bullish MA cross is an encouraging sign for a reversal. 1.0400 is the next hurdle and its breach could be a turning point for traders’ sentiment and a launchpad towards 1.0480. On the downside, 1.0340 is fresh support and then 1.0300 a critical floor to safeguard the rebound. US 30 hits last major support The Dow Jones 30 recoups losses as traders await details on the Fed’s monetary tightening. Breaks below daily supports at 34700 and 34000 have forced buyers to liquidate in bulk. The index saw bids at last June’s low (33200) while the RSI sank into the oversold area on the daily chart. As the quote stabilizes, traders may be looking to buy the dips. A close above 34500 may lead to 35500 which is a key supply zone from a previous breakout. A break below the daily support could trigger a broader correction in the weeks to come.

Apple reports earnings after the close on Thursday.With the Fed out of the way, the road is cleared for the stock superpower.AAPL could help turn the entire market sentiment after Microsoft beat. Apple is due to report earnings after the close on Thursday. With the Fed meeting ending today, investors will then focus on the tech sector to hopefully end the bearish mood currently hitting markets. Tech names along with a not-too-surprising Fed (https://www.fxstreet.com/macroeconomics/central-banks/fed) could turn things around. Sentiment is beginning to look overdone, but it is imperative to get solid earnings from the tech sector. So far the bank sector has disappointed, while the energy sector looks like it should outperform. This week as we mentioned in our preview note is key with 104 of the S&P 500 companies reporting. Apple Stock NewsApple reports after the close on Thursday, January 27. Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to come in at $1.89 on revenue of $118.28 billion. Wall Street analysts also expect Apple to have sold 80 million iPhones in the last quarter. Bank of America certainly is looking to the upside as it outlines in a note out this morning. The bank sees iPhone sales coming in at 81 million and sees a strong revenue number of $121 million, well ahead of forecasts. Analysts have been active this week on the name ahead of earnings. Earlier we reported on Goldman Sachs maintaining their $142 price target ahead of earnings, while Morgan Stanley expects strong iPhone deliveries to maintain bullish earnings.As ever the commentary around earnings will be as important as the earnings themselves. Last time out the dreaded supply chain and chip issues came to light, so we will look for more clarity around these areas.Apple Stock Forecast$157 is big, very big. A break and it likely heads to $148, which is a huge volume profile support and the point of control. But breaking $157 does put in a new lower low and so continue the downtrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) both look quite stretched, but the RSI is not yet oversold. The MACD, meanwhile, is at its lowest since March of last year, and the histogram is also at its widest in a year. Earnings then could be the catalyst to turn this trend around. Apple (AAPL) chart, daily

Glass half full call on S&P 500 yesterday was vindicated – this yet another reversal has the power to go on, and credit markets appear sniffing out the upcoming reprieve. While rates have justifiably risen, they have done so quite fast in Jan – time to calm down and reprice the excessively hawkish Fed fears. Even if it was just energy and financials that rose yesterday, the table is set for gains across many assets – just check the progress from yesterday‘s already optimistic upturn, or the already fine early view of yesterday‘s market internals.VIX is calming down, Fed is unlikely to rock the boat too much – such were my yesterday‘s thoughts about:(…) seeing a rebound on Wednesday‘s FOMC (I‘m leaning towards its message being positively received, and no rate hike now as that‘s apart from the Eastern Europe situation the other fear around).The sizable open profits – whether in S&P 500 or crude oil – can keep on growing while gold slowly approaches $1,870 again (look for a good day today), and copper stabilizes above $4.50 to keep pushing higher even if not yet outperforming other commodities. More dry firepowder and fresh profits ahead anywhere I look – even cryptos are to enjoy the unfolding risk-on upswing.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThis is what a tradable S&P 500 bottom looks like – just as it was most likely to turn out. After the 200-day moving average, 4,500 point of control is the next target.Credit MarketsHYG reversed, but isn‘t in an uptrend yet – this is how a budding reversal looks like, especially since the selling hasn‘t picked up ahead of the Fed. Turning already.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver pause was barely noticeable – it‘s a great sight of upcoming strength in the metals while miners unfortunately would continue underperforming to a degree, i.e. not leading decisively.Crude OilCrude oil bulls are back, how did you like the pause? The ride higher isn‘t over by a long shot, and I like the volume of late being this much aligned.CopperCopper looks to be catching breath before another (modest but still) upswing. The buyers aren‘t yet rushing headlong.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum reversed, and are participating in the risk-on upturn, with Ethereum sending out quite nice short-term signs. From the overall portfolio view and upcoming volatility though, I would prefer to wait before making any move here.SummaryS&P 500 bulls withstood yesterday‘s test, and are well positioned to extend gains, especially on the upcoming well received FOMC statement and soothing press conference. It had also turned out that a tech upswing is more likely to be continued today than yesterday – the Fed‘s words would calm down bonds, and that would enable a better Nasdaq upswing.As I wrote yesterday, the table is set for an upside FOMC surprise – the tantrum coupled with war fears bidding up the dollar, is impossible to miss. Best places to be in remain commodities and precious metals – and I would add today once again in a while that real assets upswing would coincide with the dollar moving lower later today (check those upper knots of late). So far so good in risk-on, inflation trades – and things will get even better as my regular readers know (I can‘t underline how much you can benefit from regularly reading the full analyses as these are about how I arrive at the profitable conclusions presented & how you can twist them to your own purposes).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

USDCAD breaks higherThe Canadian dollar slipped after the BOC kept interest rates unchanged. Its US counterpart found support at 1.2560 after a brief pullback.An oversold RSI attracted some bargain hunters. The current rebound is a sign that there is a strong interest in pushing for a bullish reversal. 1.2700 is a key supply zone as it coincides with the 30-day moving average.A breakout would definitely turn sentiment around and trigger a runaway rally. In turn, this sets the daily resistance at 1.2810 as the next target.NZDUSD continues lowerThe New Zealand dollar steadied after the Q4 CPI beat expectations.However, the pair is still in bearish territory after it broke below the lower end (0.6750) of the flag consolidation from the daily time frame. The RSI’s oversold situation brought in a buying-the-dips crowd around 0.6660 but its breach indicates a lack of buying interest.The kiwi is now testing November 2020’s low at 0.6600. The bears could be waiting to fade the next bounce with 0.6700 as a fresh resistance.XAUUSD pulls back for supportGold tumbled after the US Fed signaled it may raise interest rates in March. The rally stalled at 1853 and a break below the resistance-turned-support at 1830 flushed some buyers out.1810 at the base of the previous bullish breakout is a second line of defense. The short-term uptrend may still be intact as long as the metal stays above this key support.A deeper correction would drive the price down to the daily support at 1785. The bulls need a rebound above 1838 to regain control of price action.

Wild FOMC day is over, and markets are repricing the perceived fresh hawkishness when there was none really. It‘s nice to start counting with 5 rate hikes this year when taper hasn‘t truly progressed much since it was announced last year. The accelerated taper would though happen, and the following questions are as to hikes‘ number and frequency. I‘m not looking the current perceived hawkishness to be able to go all the way, and I question Mar 50bp rate hike fears. Not that it would even make a dent in inflation – as the Fed just stood pat, open oil profits are rising.But stocks took a dive before recovering, carving out a fourth in a row lower knot – the bulls are invited to participate, and open stock market profits are moving up again. Also note the divergence between HYG trading at its recent lows while S&P 500 clearly isn‘t. The immediate pressure would be to go higher, and that concerns also copper, and to a smaller degree cryptos. All that‘s needed, is for bonds to turn up, acknowledging a too hawkish interpretation of yesterday‘s FOMC – key factor that sent metals down and dollar up. While rates would continue rising, as the Fed overplays its tightening hand, we would see them retreat again – now with 1.85% in the 10-year Treasury, we would overshoot very well above 2% only to close the year in its (2%) vicinity.That just illustrates how much tolerance for rate hikes both the real economy and the markets have, and the degree to which the Fed can accomplish its overly ambitious yet behind the curve plans. Still time to be betting on commodities and precious metals in the coming stagflation.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookSetback and reversal of prior gains - S&P 500 is though still carving out a tradable bottom. I‘m looking for the index to return above 4,400 and then take on the 4,500 point of control next.Credit MarketsHYG reversed, the panic is there – higher yields across the board without a clear risk-on turn holding. Today is a time for reprieve.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver declined as yields moved sharply up and so did the dollar – but inflation or inflation expectations didn‘t really budge. The metals are anticipating the upcoming liquidity squeeze, which won‘t be pretty until the Fed changes course. Not that it truly started, for that matter.Crude OilCrude oil bulls have confirmed they were back, and are ready for more – clearly not daunted by the Fed messaging, and that has implications for inflation ahead. It would really be more persistent than generally appreciated, I‘m telling you.CopperCopper is still in the catching breath phase – not yielding, and that‘s still saying something about inflation and real economy.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum are on guard, and ready to move somewhat higher next – for now, lacking conviction, there is no Ethereum outperformance either.SummaryS&P 500 bulls are ready to come back, and prove that the first FOMC move, is the fake one – no, I don‘t mean the moonshot to 4,450 in the first moments. That would be the move I‘m looking for still, and it would be led by the coming tech upswing. Check the commodities resilience to the rising rates prospects – gold and silver need a reprieve in bonds badly to catch breath again, and it would come at the expense of the dollar. For now, markets are afraid of the looming liquidity crunch and Fed policy mistake as the yield curve continues compressing.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

USDJPY tests major resistance The Japanese yen inched higher after January’s Tokyo CPI beat expectations. The US dollar found support in the daily demand zone around 113.50. And that is a sign that upbeat sentiment in the medium-term remains intact. A close above the psychological level of 115.00 attracted momentum traders and sped up the rebound. 115.60 at the origin of the January liquidation is key resistance. In fact, its breach could put the uptrend back on track. The RSI’s overextension may cause a limited pullback with 114.50 as the closest support. USOIL breaks to new high Oil climbed amid fears of disruption as tensions between Russia and the West grew. After a short-lived pause, WTI crude saw bids near a previous low at 82.00 which lies on the 20-day moving average. A break above the January peak at 87.80 indicates solid interest in keeping the rally in shape. As the bulls’ run continued, more trend-followers would push the price to 89.00. An overbought RSI temporarily restrained the fever, and buyers could see a pullback towards 85.00 as an opportunity. SPX 500 struggles for support Upcoming US rate hike still weighs on equity markets. A tentative break below last October’s low (4300) has put the S&P 500 on the defense. A bearish MA cross on the daily chart shows that sentiment could be deteriorating as price action struggles to stabilize. An oversold RSI led to a limited rebound as intraday sellers took profit. Nonetheless, buyers should be wary of catching a falling knife, leaving the index vulnerable to another sell-off if it drops below 4230. 4490 is the first resistance to clear to initiate a recovery.

The year 2022 is seemingly a mixed bag, even as markets start reopening. The year looks promising, though, with issues like inflation and COVID to contemplate. Historic rallies in 2021 after lockdowns are looking to inspire trading in various industries, with some assets to look out for by investors. Growth will surely return at some point, but so will disappointing instances where tumbles will dominate trading desks. The S & P's historic gains of 30 percent dominated the press at the close of 2021, making investors using Naga and other optimistic platforms. The ended year had one of the longest bull markets. However, the Fed rate tightening and the direction the pandemic will take are some things to expect, notwithstanding that the stock market might grow by a whopping 10 percent in 2022. Trading Movements In Week One 2022 European markets have opened with a lot of optimism in 2022, the pan-European STOXX 600 closed at 489.99 points; this is 0.5 percent higher than the opening figure. The European benchmark was some percentage lower than the overall S&P 2021 performance, though with a surge of 22.4 percent. Record gains in the stock markets have relied on the positions taken by the governments during the pandemic. In the USA and Europe, increasing vaccination rates and economic stimulus measures have improved investor confidence. However, there are indications for more volatility in 2022, a situation investors must watch keenly. There has been little activity in London markets in the first week of 2022, while in Italy, France, and Spain gains of between 0.5-1.4 percent made notable highlights. European markets had diverse industries drive up the closing gains witnessed; the airline sector, in particular, has had a significant influence. Germany’s Lufthansa (LHAG.DE) had an impressive 8.8 percent jump while Air France KLM (AIRF.PA), a 4.9 percent gain. Factory activity is another factor to thank for the first week's gains all over Europe. Noteworthy, the Omicron variant influenced trading in the entirety of December, but the reports that it is milder than Delta has energized market activities coming into January. S&P and DOW Jones 2022 First Week Highs Across the Atlantic, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) and S&P 500 (SPX) closed at a record high, highlighting a similar aggressiveness as the European markets. While the jump was industrial-wide, Tech stocks continued to dominate, as Apple finally touched the $3 trillion valuation, though for a short time. Tesla Inc. (TSLA.O) posted a 13.5 percent jump thanks to increased production in China and an unprecedented goal to surpass its target. The US market, like the European market, is also in a fix; the Omicron variant of COVID-19 continues to cause concern with the wait-and-see approach, the only notable strategy. Currently, every country is reporting a jump in the number of Covid cases, with the UK going above 100K cases for the first time and the US recording some new records as well. School delays and increased isolation by key workers will surely debilitate the markets, with the global chip shortage another point to contemplate. However, markets can still ride on the increased development of therapies to help fight Covid. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (CDC) has been quick, as now children can have their third doses as well. Industries to Look Out For In 2022 European automakers have seen early peaks, while the airline sector has also picked up fast. In the US, tech shares continue to dominate, and 2022 might witness new records never seen before. However, the energy sectors have also dominated the news in 2021, and in 2022; the confidence in them will continue to rise because of an anticipation of stabilization in energy prices. The same goes for crude oil prices. Regardless, shareholders will continue watching the decisions by the Federal Reserve, a review in the current interest rates will surely tame inflation. Conclusion 2022 will see its highs and lows in investments. Some assets will make the news and investors will be keen to use any information to make key decisions. Tech will continue to shine, but it is important to anticipate the direction of the pandemic, as it will be an important factor in investor decisions.

The US dollar rewrote its 1.5-year highs on Thursday, sending EURUSD under 1.1150. After the FOMC meeting, the pair fell in total by 1.5%, leaving a two-month consolidation with a sharp movement. Friday's small rollback from extremes is likely a local profit fixation by the end of the week and month. History suggests that the US currency begins to add about 2-3 quarters before the first rate hike and continues to be in positive territory for about the same time after. We believe that this long story should be adjusted to the new reality in which interest rates are the starting point. Namely, the first point of tightening monetary conditions is now the beginning of the curtailment of purchases on the balance sheet and not the first increase. The start of the dollar's growth last year was the beginning of a public discussion of curtailment. And now, seven months later, the dollar is halfway up with an 8.5% increase from the area of last year's lows. The second half of this wave is unlikely to be as powerful. We only assume that the dollar has a 3-4% growth potential in the area of 100.3-101 due to monetary policy changes. This will return the US currency to the area of steady highs in 2020, excluding two weeks of the most violent market crash. The EURUSD rate in this scenario may fall to 1.07-1.08 before finding a more substantial base of buyers. However, investors and traders should also remember that monetary policy is far from the only driver for currencies. The markets' attention can quickly switch to the debt sustainability of the Eurozone countries and the pace of economic recovery in the world.

  Gold’s fate in 2021 will be determined mainly by inflation and the Fed’s reaction to it. In the epic struggle between chaos and order, chaos has an easier task, as there is usually only one proper method to do a job – the job that you can screw up in many ways. Thus, although economists see a strong economic expansion with cooling prices and normalization in monetary policies in 2022, many things could go wrong. The Omicron strain of coronavirus or its new variants could become more contagious and deadly, pushing the world into the Great Lockdown again. The real estate crisis in China could lead the country into recession, with serious economic consequences for the global economy. Oh, by the way, we could see an escalation between China and Taiwan, or between China and the US, especially after the recent test of hypersonic missiles by the former country. Having said that, I believe that the major forces affecting the gold market in 2022 will be – similarly to last year’s – inflation and the Fed’s response to it. Considering things in isolation, high inflation should be supportive of gold prices. The problem here is that gold prefers high and rising inflation. Although the inflation rate should continue its upward move for a while, it’s likely to peak this year. Indeed, based on very simple monetarist reasoning, I expect the peak to be somewhere in the first quarter of 2022. This is because the lag between the acceleration in money supply growth (March 2020) and CPI growth (March 2021) was a year. The peak in the former occurred in February 2021, as the chart below shows. You can do the math (by the way, this is the exercise that turned out to be too difficult for Jerome Powell and his “smart” colleagues from the Fed). This is – as I’ve said – very uncomplicated thinking that assumes the stability of the lag between monetary impulses and price reactions. However, given the Fed’s passive reaction to inflation and the fact that the pace of money supply growth didn’t return to the pre-pandemic level, but stayed at twice as high, the peak in inflation may occur later. In other words, more persistent inflation is the major risk for the economy that many economists still downplay. The consensus expectation is that inflation returns to a level close to the Fed’s target by the end of the year. For 2021, the forecasts were similar. Instead, inflation has risen to about 7%. Thus, never underestimate the power of the inflation dragon, especially if the beast is left unchecked! As everyone knows, dragons love gold – and this feeling is mutual. The Saxo Bank, in its annual “Outrageous Predictions”, sees the potential for US consumer prices to rise 15% in 2022, as “companies bid up wages in an effort to find willing and qualified workers, triggering a wage-price spiral unlike anything seen since the 1970’s”. Actually, given the fact that millions of Americans left the labor market – which the Fed doesn’t understand and still expects that they will come back – this prediction is not as extreme as one could expect. I still hope that inflationary pressure will moderate this year, but I’m afraid that the fall may not be substantial. On the other hand, we have the Fed with its hawkish rhetoric and tapering of quantitative easing. The US central bank is expected to start a tightening cycle, hiking the federal funds rate at least twice this year. It doesn’t sound good for gold, does it? A hawkish Fed implies a stronger greenback and rising real interest rates, which is negative for the yellow metal. As the chart below shows, the normalization of monetary policy after the Great Recession, with the infamous “taper tantrum”, was very supportive of the US dollar but lethal for gold. However, the price of gold bottomed in December 2015, exactly when the Fed hiked the interest rates for the first time after the global financial crisis. Markets are always future-oriented, so they often react more to expected rather than actual events. Another thing is that the Fed’s tightening cycle of 2015-2018 was dovish and the federal funds rate (and the Fed’s balance sheet) never returned to pre-crisis levels. The same applies to the current situation: despite all the hawkish reactions, the Fed is terribly behind the curve. Last but not least, history teaches us that a tightening Fed spells trouble for markets. As a reminder, the last tightening cycle led to the reversal of the yield curve in 2019 and the repo crisis, which forced the US central bank to cut interest rates, even before anyone has heard of covid-19. Hence, the Fed is in a very difficult situation. It either stays behind the curve, which risks letting inflation get out of control, or tightens its monetary policy in a decisive manner, just like Paul Volcker did in the 1980s, which risks a correction of already-elevated asset prices and the next economic crisis. Such expectations have boosted gold prices since December 2015, and they could support the yellow metal today as well. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.

The recent Fed comments should have helped settle the global market expectations related to if and when the Fed will start raising rates and/or taking further steps to curb inflation trends. Additionally, the Fed has been telegraphing its intentions very clearly over the past few months, providing ample time for traders and investors to alter their approach to pending monetary tightening actions. Read the full Fed Statement here.In my opinion, foreign markets are more likely to see increased risks and declining price trends for two reasons. First, at-risk nations/borrowers struggle to reduce debt levels. Second, foreign market traders/investors struggle to adapt to the transition away from speculative “growth” trends. I think the US Dollar may continue to show strength over the next 4+ months as the foreign traders pile into US economic strength while the Fed initiates their tightening actions. So it makes sense to me that global markets would recoil from Fed tightening while debt-heavy corporations/nations seek relief from rising debt obligations.Foreign Markets Struggle For Support Before US Fed Monetary TighteningIn a continuing downward slide, global market equity indexes continue to move lower after the US Fed comments this week. In this article, I wrote about this dynamic on August 3, 2021: US Markets Stall Near End Of July As Global Markets Retreat - Are We Ready For An August Surprise? At that time, I suggested the US markets were stalling while the global markets continued to decline.Now, nearly five months later, we've seen the US market trend moderately higher, attempting to struggle to new highs and exhibit deep downward price trends, while the global markets have continued to trend lower. As we move closer to the US Fed pushing interest rates higher, I expect these trends to become even more volatile and pronounced.US Equities May Find Support After The Fed Raises RatesThe current dynamic in the global markets is that capital is seeking investments where safety and profitable returns dominate over risks. As the global markets transition ahead of the Fed rate increases, I believe the US markets will continue to dominate global assets in opportunities, safety, and returns. Once the Fed starts to raise interest rates, a brief period of volatility throughout the global markets may occur. Still, that volatility should quickly settle as traders chase a stronger US Dollar, US Dollar-based Dividends, and a potential “melt-up” of the US Equity market (particularly the Dow Jones, S&P500, and possibly the Russell 2000).Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!Unless the US Fed takes very aggressive action in raising rates too quickly, I believe, at least initially, the US equity markets will continue to benefit from perceived strengths compared to many global equities/indexes.This means there will be many opportunities for traders and investors in 2022 and 2023 – we have to be patient in waiting for the chance to profit from these big trends. Jumping ahead of this volatility could be dangerous if you are on the wrong side of the price trend. Instead, wait for the right opportunities while you protect your capital from extreme risks. Let the markets tell you when opportunities are perfect – don't try to force a trade to happen.On December 28, 2021, I published this research article showing how my Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) Predictive Modeling system expects price to trend in 2022 and early 2023: Predictive Modeling Suggests 710 Rally In SPY And QQQ Before April 2022. I strongly suggest taking a look at the recent downside price trends in relation to the lower range of the ADL Predictive Modeling expectations. If my ADL Predictive Modeling system is accurate, we may see a relatively strong recovery in the US stock market throughout the rest of 2022 and beyond.Strategies To Help You Protect And Grow Your WealthLearn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

  Despite death wishes from the doubters, the dollar took to the skies on the Fed’s hawkish wings. Gold and silver can wave from the ground for now. While Fed Chairman Jerome Powell threw fuel on the fire on Jan. 26, it’s no surprise that the USD Index has rallied to new highs. For example, while dollar bears feasted on false narratives in 2021, I was a lonely bull forecasting higher index values. Likewise, after more doubts emerged in 2022, the death of the dollar narrative resurfaced once again. However, with the charts signaling a bullish outcome for some time, my initial target of 94.5 was surpassed and my next target of 98 is near. As such, it’s crucial to avoid speculation and wait for confirmation of breakdowns and breakouts. In its absence, the price action often pulls you in the wrong direction. Remember the supposedly bearish move below 95 when the USD Index moved even below its rising support line? It’s been just 2 weeks since that development. On Jan. 14, I wrote the following: In conclusion, 2022 looks a lot like 2021: dollar bears are out in full force and the ‘death of the dollar’ narrative has resurfaced once again. However, with the greenback’s 2021 ascent catching many investors by surprise, another re-enactment will likely materialize in 2022. Moreover, since gold, silver, and mining stocks often move inversely to the U.S. dollar, their 2022 performances may surprise for all of the wrong reasons. As such, while the dollar’s despondence is bullish for the precious metals, a reversal of fortunes will likely occur over the medium term. Given yesterday’s reversal in the USD Index, it’s likely also from the short-term point of view – we could see the reversal and the return of the USD’s rally and PMs’ decline any day or hour now. Fortunately, if you’ve been following my analyses, the recent price moves didn’t catch you by surprise. What’s next? While the USD Index still needs to confirm the recent breakout and some consolidation may ensue, the bullish medium-term thesis remains intact. More importantly, though, the USD Index’s gain has resulted in gold, silver, and mining stocks’ pain. For example, the dollar’s surge helped push gold below its short-and-medium-term rising support lines (the upward sloping red lines on the bottom half of the above chart). However, since the USD Index hit a new high and gold didn’t hit a new low, is the development bullish for the yellow metal? To answer, I wrote on Jan. 27: The U.S. currency just moved above its previous 2022 and 2021 highs, while gold is not at its 2021 lows. Yet. I wouldn’t view gold’s performance as true strength against the USD Index at this time just yet. Why? Because of the huge consolidation that gold has been trading in. The strength that I want to see in gold is its ability not to fall or soar back up despite everything thrown against it, not because it’s stuck in a trading range. In analogy, you’ve probably seen someone, who’s able to hold their ground, and not give up despite the world throwing every harm and obstacle at them. They show their character. They show their strength. Inaction could represent greater wisdom and/or love and focus on one’s goal that was associated with the lack of action. You probably know someone like that. You might be someone like that. The above “inaction” is very different from “inaction” resulting from someone not knowing what to do, not having enough energy, or willpower. Since markets are ultimately created by people (or algorithms that were… ultimately still created by people) is it any surprise that markets tend to work in the same way? One inaction doesn’t equal another inaction, and – as always – context matters. However, wasn’t gold strong against the USD Index’s strength in 2021? It was, but it was very weak compared to the ridiculous amounts of money that were printed in 2020 and 2021 and given the global pandemic. These are the circumstances, where gold “should be” soaring well above its 2011 highs, not invalidating the breakout above it. The latter, not the former, happened. Besides, the “strength” was present practically only in gold. Silver and miners remain well below their 2011 highs – they are not even close to them and didn’t move close to them at any point in 2020 or 2021. The Eye in the Sky Doesn’t Lie Moreover, if we zoom out and focus our attention on the USD Index’s weekly chart, the price action has unfolded exactly as I expected. For example, while overbought conditions resulted in a short-term breather, the USD Index consolidated for a few weeks. However, history shows that the greenback eventually catches its second wind. To explain, I previously wrote: I marked additional situations on the chart below with orange rectangles – these were the recent cases when the RSI based on the USD Index moved from very low levels to or above 70. In all three previous cases, there was some corrective downswing after the initial part of the decline, but once it was over – and the RSI declined somewhat – the big rally returned and the USD Index moved to new highs. Please see below: Just as the USD Index took a breather before its massive rally in 2014, it seems that we saw the same recently. This means that predicting higher gold prices (or those of silver) here is likely not a good idea. Continuing the theme, the eye in the sky doesn’t lie, and with the USDX’s long-term breakout clearly visible, the wind remains at the dollar’s back. Furthermore, dollar bears often miss the forest through the trees: with the USD Index’s long-term breakout gaining steam, the implications of the chart below are profound. While very few analysts cite the material impact (when was the last time you saw the USDX chart starting in 1985 anywhere else?), the USD Index has been sending bullish signals for years. Please see below: The bottom line? With my initial 2021 target of 94.5 already hit, the ~98-101 target is likely to be reached over the medium term (and perhaps quite soon) Mind, though: we’re not bullish on the greenback because of the U.S.’s absolute outperformance. It’s because the region is fundamentally outperforming the Eurozone. The EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, and the relative performance is what really matters. In conclusion, the USD Index’s ascent has surprised investors. However, if you’ve been following my analysis, you know that I’ve been expecting these moves for over a year. Moreover, with the rally poised to persist, gold, silver, and mining stocks may struggle before they reach lasting bottoms. However, with long-term buying opportunities likely to materialize later in 2022, the precious metals should soar to new heights in the coming years. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

S&P 500 upswing attempt rejected, again – and credit markets didn‘t pause, with the dollar rush being truly ominous. Sign of both the Fed being taken seriously, and of being afraid (positioned for) the adverse tightening consequences. Bonds are bleeding, the yield curve flattening, and VIX having trouble declining. As stated yesterday: (...) It‘s nice to start counting with 5 rate hikes this year when taper hasn‘t truly progressed much since it was announced last year. The accelerated taper would though happen, and the following questions are as to hikes‘ number and frequency. I‘m not looking the current perceived hawkishness to be able to go all the way, and I question Mar 50bp rate hike fears. Not that it would even make a dent in inflation. Not even the shock and awe 50bp hike in Mar would make a dent as crude oil prices virtually guarantee inflation persistence beyond 2022. The red hot Treasury and dollar markets are major headwinds as the S&P 500 is cooling off (in a very volatile way) for a major move. As we keep chopping between 4,330s and 4,270s, the bulls haven‘t been yet overpowered. I keep looking to bonds and USD for direction across all markets. I also wrote yesterday: (...) All that‘s needed, is for bonds to turn up, acknowledging a too hawkish interpretation of yesterday‘s FOMC – key factor that sent metals down and dollar up. While rates would continue rising, as the Fed overplays its tightening hand, we would see them retreat again – now with 1.85% in the 10-year Treasury, we would overshoot very well above 2% only to close the year in its (2%) vicinity. That just illustrates how much tolerance for rate hikes both the real economy and the markets have, and the degree to which the Fed can accomplish its overly ambitious yet behind the curve plans. Still time to be betting on commodities and precious metals in the coming stagflation. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Another setback with reversal of prior gains - S&P 500 is chopping in preparation for the upcoming move. Concerningly, the bears are overpowering the bulls on a daily basis increasingly more while Bollinger Bands cool down to accommodate the next move. Direction will be decided in bonds. Credit Markets HYG keeps collapsing but the volume is drying up, which means we could see a reprieve – happening though at lower levels than earlier this week. Quality debt instruments are pausing already, indicatively. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver declined as yields moved sharply up and so did the dollar – but inflation or inflation expectations didn‘t really budge, and TLT looks ready to pause. The metals keep chopping sideways in the early tightening phase, which is actually quite a feat. Crude Oil Crude oil isn‘t broken by the Fed, and its upswing looks ready to go on unimpeded, and that has implications for inflation ahead. Persistent breed, let me tell you. Copper Copper is in danger of losing some breath – the GDP growth downgrades aren‘t helping. The red metal though remains range bound, patiently waiting to break out. Will take time. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are pointing lower again, losing altitude – not yet a buying proposition. Summary S&P 500 bulls wasted another opportunity to come back – the FOMC consequences keep biting as fears of a hawkish Fed are growing. Tech still can‘t get its act together, and neither can bonds – these are the decisive factors for equities. As liquidity is getting scarce while the Fed hadn‘t really moved yet, risk-on assets are under pressure thanks to frontrunning the Fed. The room for a surprising rebound in stocks is however still there, given how well the 4,270s are holding in spite of the HYG plunge. And given the recent quality debt instruments pause, it looks approaching. Look for a dollar decline next to confirm the upcoming risk-on upswing. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Apple stock surges after a strong earnings release. AAPL popped 2% on the numbers, and this move has continued. Apple could turn the entire market sentiment around. Apple (AAPL) dropped earnings after the close last night, and they amounted to a blow out. There had been some talk of record numbers and iPhone sales prior to the release, but this set of earnings surprised even the most bullish previews. The stock immediately popped 2% and stabilized but has since added another 2% to its after-market gains and is currently at $165.79 in Friday's premarket. This marks a 4% gain on the regular session close from Thursday. This big question is whether Apple (AAPL) can turn the entire market sentiment around. It is after all the biggest company in the world with the highest weighting in the main S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices. It certainly has the potential to call a bottom to this miserable start to 2022. Apple Stock News Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $2.10 versus the average estimate of $1.88. Revenue also beat estimates, hitting $123.9 billion versus $118.28 billion. The closely watched iPhone revenue number hit $71.63 billion and represents just under 58% of Apple's total revenue. Gross margins increased from 39.8% to 43.8% yearly. On the conference call post earnings, CEO Tim Cook said he sees this margin remaining strong in Q2 2022 to 43% at the midpoint of projections. However, the March quarter is traditionally the slowest of the year earnings wise due to the post-holiday season lull in sales activity. CFO Luca Maestri addressed the key question of supply chain issues, saying chip issues are only a problem for mostly older models and that problems have eased. Tim Cook said the supply chain is doing well. Overall, this was exactly what the market needed: blowout earnings with a significant beat. The earnings call offered strong revenue and most importantly positive commentary around the supply chain and semiconductor chip issues. We will likely see multiple analyst upgrades as the day progresses. Apple Stock Forecast This now becomes a key barometer for the broad market. AAPL should stabilize and appreciate further from here based on these results. If this current rally fails and fades, then truly we are entering a correction phase. For now, $157 remains key support. This is the high from September and also the 100-day moving average. Hold here and we can then target $167.63 and then onto record highs. Also note how the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is oversold by traditional metrics at 30 (we prefer to use 20) and how the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is also at lows with the histogram at the widest we have seen for some time. All of these are indicators of oversold conditions. Everything looks set up for a turnaround. The only caveat is the overall market sentiment. Apple (AAPL) chart, daily

Today we have seen the first slowdown in annual inflation in seven months, but the data is better than expected. In January, consumer prices rose 0.4%, up 4.9% on the same month a year earlier. Analysts, on average, were expecting prices to fall by 0.2% and slow inflation to 4.3% YoY. The harmonized price index (adjusted for tax changes) shows an even more significant gap between expectations and reality. The index rose by 0.9% (a fall of 0.4% was expected). The figures clearly show that inflation has penetrated deeper into the economy and is increasingly taking on the features of permanent price increases. Sustained inflation raises the expectation that the ECB will also tighten its rhetoric and proceed with policy tightening more quickly than previously promised. The markets have priced in one rate hike of 0.25% by December. But with the Fed as an example, we can see how quickly things can change. These changes should be positive for the euro.

S&P 500 left the 4,270s - 4,330s range with an upside breakout – after bonds finally caught some bid. While in risk-on posture, divergencies to stocks abound – any stock market advance would leave S&P 500 in a more precarious position than when the break above 4,800 ATHs fizzled out. But a stock market advance we would have, targeting 4,500 followed by possibly 4,600. The sizable open long profits can keep growing. Only the market internals would be poor, so better don‘t look at the percentage of stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages, and similar metrics. Enough to say that Friday‘s advance was sparked by the Apple news. When it‘s only the generals that are advancing while much of the rest remains in shambles, Houston has a problem – we aren‘t there yet. Fed‘s Kashkari also helped mightily on Friday – that implicit rates backpedalling was more than helpful. Pity that precious metals haven‘t noticed (I would say yet) – but remember the big picture and don‘t despair, we‘re just going sideways before the inevitable breakout higher. Back to rates and the Fed, there is a key difference between the tightening of 2018 and now – the economy was quite robust with blood freely flowing, crucially without raging inflation. With the Fed sorely behind the curve by at least a year, it‘ll have to move faster and have lower sensibility to market selloffs caused. Stiff headwinds ahead as liquidity gets tighter. Couple that with resilient oil – more profits taken off the table Friday at $88.30 – and you‘ve got a pretty resilient inflation. Not that inflation expectations would be shaking in their boots, not that commodities would be cratering. It‘s only copper (influencing silver) that has to figure out just how overdone its Friday‘s move had been. Not that other base metals would be that pessimistic. Similarly to precious metals and the early tightening phase, commodities would be under temporary pressure as well, but outperforming as we officially enter stagflation. Not too tough to imagine given the GDP growth downgrades. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Great finish to the week, but S&P 500 bulls have quite a job ahead – it continues being choppy out there. I‘m still looking at bonds with tech for direction. Credit Markets HYG finally turned around, and Friday was a risk-on day. The question remains how far can the retracement (yes, it‘s retracement only) reach – can the pre-FOMC highs be approached? Could be, could be. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver retreated, but no chart damage was done – things are still going sideways as the countdown is on for the Fed to either tighten too much and send markets crashing, or reverse course (again). Crude Oil Crude oil isn‘t broken by the Fed, and why should it be given that it can‘t be printed. Some backing and filling is ahead before the uptrend reasserts itself. Copper Copper is the only red flag, and seeing it rebound would call off the amber light. This is the greatest non-confirmation of the commodities direction in quite a while, and that‘s why I‘m taking it with more than a pinch of salt. Bitcoin and Ethereum Crypto bulls are putting up a little fight as the narrow range trading continues – I‘m not looking at the Bitcoin and Ethereum buyers to succeed convincingly. Summary S&P 500 bulls finally moved in an otherwise volatile and choppy week. For the days ahead, volatility is likely to calm down somewhat, but chop is likely to be with us still – only that I expect it to be of the bullish flavor. 10-year Treasury yield has calmed down, and that would be constructive for stocks – watch next for the 2-year to take notice likewise. The 2-year Treasury is quite sensitive to the anticipated Fed moves, and illustrates well the rate hike fears – coupled with the compressed 10-year to 2-year ratio, we‘re looking at rising expectation of the Fed policy mistake (in tightening too much, too fast). For now though, stocks can recover somewhat, and most of the commodities can keep on appreciating. Precious metals keep being in the waiting game, very resilient, and will turn out one of the great bullish surprises of 2022. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Bitcoin, the plan, and its execution The Plan: It is an election year when Democrats will project political pressure upon the Federal Reserve to not risk through aggressive policy changes a stock market collapse to keep their votes. As a result, more money printing expands inflation, which supports the interest for bitcoin as an inflation hedge. Should we see in opposition for whatever reason a rapid stock market decline, the investor would unlikely be interested in owning stock or bonds. While initially, bitcoin prices would likely fall alongside the markets, money will likely flow into bitcoin shortly afterward. The execution: With bitcoins prices suppressed from their recent decline (down 52% from its last all-time high at around US$69,000), we have another edge for minimizing exposure risk. BTC in US-Dollar, monthly chart, high likely turning points: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of January 31st, 2022. The chart above depicts five supply zones we have our eye on. We will try identifying low-risk entry points on smaller time frames at or near these points and reduce risk further with our quad exit strategy. We already had entries near zone 1 and 2 and posted those live in our free Telegram channel. BTC in US-Dollar, weekly chart, bitcoin, the plan, and its execution, reload trading: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 1st, 2022. Once the more significant time frame turning point is identified (white arrow), we will add what we call ‘reload’ trades (see chart above) on the smaller weekly time frame. We do so by identifying low-risk entries in congestion zones (yellow boxes) on the way up. We aim to arrive near the elections in November with a sizable position that is due to our exit strategy being risk-free. Playing with the market’s money will allow for positive execution psychology and ease us to observe our position through an expected volatility period, with further profit-taking into possible volatile upswings that are only temporary in nature. BTC in US-Dollar, Quarterly Chart, long-term profit potential: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of February 1st, 2022. While this year’s midterm trading on the long side of the bitcoin market could provide for substantial income from the 50% profit-taking of each individual trade and reload based on our quad exit strategy, the real goal is to have a remaining position size that could potentially go to unfathomable heights, since we see in the long term the inflation problem not going away but rather culminating in a bitcoin rise that could be substantially much larger in percentage than alternative inflation hedges like real estate, gold, silver and alike. Not to say that we find it also essential to hold these asset classes for wealth preservation. The quarterly chart above illustrates the potential of such a position. We illustrated both in time (six years) and price (US$ 134,000) our most conservative model in this chart. Bitcoin, the plan, and its execution: We see no scenario where inflation is just going away. The above narrative shows that a short-term fueling of inflation is likely. Furthermore, a high-risk scenario is fueling inflation even more. Should markets decline rapidly, it can be expected that money printing and buying up the market is the most predominant solution applied. Consequently, the average investor would wake up relieved that prices wouldn’t decline any further but liquidating their holdings in a further inflated fiat currency will have massively decreased purchasing power. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|February 1st, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

Solana price keeps hovering above the monthly S2 support. SOL price sees RSI slowly climbing out of the oversold area on the RSI. Expect a pickup in bullish sentiment once Nasdaq confirms risk-on will be the central theme for this week. Solana (SOL) price saw its bullish reversal stop short on Sunday and is now nearing the monthly S2 support level again at $89.28. Although ASIA PAC equity and European indices are firmly in the green, the sentiment has not spilled over to US futures and cryptocurrencies yet. Expect a bounce off the monthly S2 support level and look for a first test at $100 to the upside before continuation this week towards $130.70. Solana bulls are pushing the RSI away from the oversold area Solana price action saw bulls in good shape on Friday and Saturday, erasing a part of the games and trying to reach $100 to the upside. Instead, the sharp uptick stopped on Sunday as cryptocurrencies again looked heavy, with trading starting on Monday. Strangely enough, the most critical Asian indices and European indices are firmly in the green, where US futures are somewhat mixed and relatively flat during the European trading session. Expect for SOL price to stay hovering around this S2 level as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still at or in an oversold area, limiting any potential downside for bears. This should help bulls to use this window of opportunity to go long and make a bounce off the S2 level at $89.28. Once US futures kick into gear and take over the sentiment from Europe, expect some bullish uptick again, targeting $100 intraday and $130.70 for this week. SOL/USD daily chart On the downside, a break below the S2 support level would see a dip towards the low from last week, around $82. If European indices give up their gains and turn red, together with US futures firmly in the red, expect to see another wave of selling, with a possible nosedive threat towards $58.84. With that move, the RSI would overshoot firmly into being oversold.

Palantir stock rises by nearly 8% on Monday. PLTR shares have suffered from the hawkish Fed and risk aversion. Palantir could see a rally as risk assets see inflows. Palantir (PLTR) is back on the minds of traders as retail interest stocks finally catch a bid in this new environment. Meme and retail interest stocks have been hammered so far in 2022. Most, if not all, of these stocks are high growth, unprofitable and highly speculative names, and the momentum has dried up in this sector in 2022. The Fed has pivoted to a strongly hawkish stance, and markets are pricing in five rate hikes this year. Palantir has fallen 25% so far this year and nearly 50%over the last three months. Palantir Stock News The meme and retail space staged a recovery yesterday as some end-of-month position covering saw some positive flows. Added to this was a more risk-on tone following from Apple's strong earnings late last week and in anticipation of more big tech earnings this week. AMC then whetted risk appetites further this morning when it released revenue numbers that were ahead of analysts' forecasts. AMC shares popped 14% and dragged many retail and meme stocks along with them. All this should contribute to more gains for Palantir on Tuesday as momentum is key for these names. Adding to this and more stock-specific is that Palantir and Satellogic (SATL) announced a strategic partnership. "Combining the forces of Palantir’s Edge AI technology with Satellogic’s frequent high-resolution imagery will give users actionable insight faster than ever, accelerating their operations from space to mud," said Shyam Sankar, COO of Palantir. "The holistic capabilities of Palantir's Foundry will be instrumental in helping Satellogic realize our mission to improve life on Earth through geospatial data,” said Matthew Tirman, President of Satellogic North America. “ Satellogic will provide Palantir’s US government customers with ready access to Satellogic’s high-resolution satellite imagery to drive analytical insights across a range of mission-oriented use cases.” Satellogic only recently went public via a SPAC deal, listing on the NASDAQ on January 26. We do not have details of the financial side of the partnership or the impact on Palantir's revenue streams. The partnership is for five years, and the companies already have an existing collaboration. All this makes it less significant in our view as it is merely an add-on to an existing relationship between the two companies. Investors are pushing the news aggressively on social media. Palantir Stock Forecast We do note the oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI) on January 27 with it dipping below 20. Oversold readings are usually below 30 for the RSI, but 20 eliminates false signals. This then worked well, and today's move is likely to see more gains. Breaking $13.61 gets PLTR shares above the 9-day moving average, and the next resistance is at $15 from both the yearly VWAP and 21-day moving average. The VWAP is the volume-weighted average price. Palantir (PLTR) chart, daily

S&P 500 pushed sharply higher, squeezing not only tech bears even if yields didn‘t move much – bonds actually ran into headwinds before the closing bell. With my 4,500 target reached, the door has opened to consolidation of prior steep gains, and that would be accompanied by lower volatility days till before the positioning for Friday‘s non-farm payrolls is complete as talked on Sunday. So, we have an S&P 500 rally boosting our open profits while the credit market‘s risk-on posture is getting challenged, and divergencies to stocks abound – as I wrote yesterday: (…) any stock market advance would leave S&P 500 in a more precarious position than when the break above 4,800 ATHs fizzled out. But a stock market advance we would have, targeting 4,500 followed by possibly 4,600. We‘re getting there, the bulls haven‘t yet run out of steam, but it‘s time to move closer to the exit door while still dancing. But the key focus remains the Fed dynamic: (…) Fed‘s Kashkari ... helped mightily on Friday – that implicit rates backpedalling was more than helpful. Pity that precious metals haven‘t noticed (I would say yet) – but remember the big picture and don‘t despair, we‘re just going sideways before the inevitable breakout higher. Back to rates and the Fed, there is a key difference between the tightening of 2018 and now – the economy was quite robust with blood freely flowing, crucially without raging inflation. With the Fed sorely behind the curve by at least a year, it‘ll have to move faster and have lower sensibility to market selloffs caused. Stiff headwinds ahead as liquidity gets tighter. Suffice to say that precious metals did notice yesterday, and copper looks ready to work off its prior odd downswing. Remember that commodities keep rising (hello the much lauded agrifoods) while oil enteredd temporary sideways consolidation. Look for other base metals to help the red one higher – the outlook isn‘t pessimistic in the least as the recognition we have entered stagflation, would grow while the still compressing yield curve highlights growing conviction of Fed policy mistake. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bulls proved their upper hand yesterday, and the question is where would the upswing stall – or at least pause. Ahead soon, still this week. Credit Markets HYG caught a bid yesterday too, but the sellers have awakened – it appears the risk-on trades would be tested soon again. Bonds are certainly less optimistic than stocks at this point, but the S&P 500 rickety ride can still continue, and diverge from bonds. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver retreat was indeed shallow, did you back up the truck? The chart hasn‘t flipped bearish, and I stand by the earlier call that PMs would be one of the great bullish surprises of 2022. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls rejected more downside, but I‘m not looking for that to last – however shallow the upcoming pullback, it would present a buying opportunity, and more profits on top of those taken recently. Copper Expect copper‘s recent red flag to be dealt with decisively, and for higher prices to prevail. Other base metals have likewise room to join in as $4.60 would be taken on once again. At the same time, the silver to copper ratio would move in the white metal‘s favor after having based since the Aug 2020 PMs top called. Bitcoin and Ethereum As stated yesterday, crypto bulls are putting up a little fight as the narrow range trading continues – I‘m not looking at the Bitcoin and Ethereum buyers to succeed convincingly. Time for a downside reversal is approaching. Summary S&P 500 bulls made a great run yesterday, and short covering was to a good deal responsible. Given the credit market action, I‘m looking for the pace of gains to definitely decelerate, and for the 500-strong index to consolidate briefly. VIX is likely to keep calming down before rising again on Friday. Should credit markets agree, the upcoming chop would be of the bullish flavor, especially if oil prices keep trading guardedly. And that looks to be the case, and the rotation into tech can go on – $NYFANG doing well is one of the themes for the environment of slowing GDP growth rates, alongside precious metals and commodities embracing inflation with both arms. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  Gold fought valiantly, gold fought nobly, gold fought honorably. Despite all this sacrifice, it lost the battle. How will it handle the next clashes? Have you ever felt trapped in the tyranny of the status quo? Have you ever felt constrained by some invisible yet powerful forces trying to thwart the fullest realization of your potential? I guess this is what gold would feel like right now – if metals could feel anything, of course. Please take a look at the chart below. As you can see, January looked to be quite good for the yellow metal. Its price surpassed the key level of $1,800 at the end of 2021, rallying from $1,793 to $1,847 on January 25, 2022. Then the evil FOMC published its hawkish statement on monetary policy. In its initial response, gold slid. That’s true, but it bravely defended its positions above $1,800 during both Wednesday and Thursday. There was still hope. However, on Friday, the metal capitulated and plunged to $1,788. Here we are again – below the level of $1,800 that gold hasn’t been able to exceed for more than several days since mid-2021, as the chart below shows. Am I disappointed? A bit. Naughty goldie! Am I surprised? Not at all. Although I cheered the recent rally, I was unconvinced about its sustainability in the current macroeconomic context, i.e., economic recovery with tightening of monetary policy (the surprisingly positive report on GDP in the fourth quarter of 2021 didn’t probably help gold), rising interest rates, and possibly a not-distant peak in inflation. In the previous edition of the Fundamental Gold Report, I described the Fed’s actions as “a big hawkish wave that could sink the gold bulls” and pointed out that “gold started its decline before the statement was published, which may indicate more structural weakness.” I added that it was also disturbing that “gold was hit even though the FOMC statement came largely as expected.” Last but not least, I concluded my report with a warning that “the upcoming weeks may be challenging for gold, which would have to deal with rising bond yields.” My warning came true very quickly. Of course, we cannot exclude a relatively swift rebound. After all, gold can be quite volatile in the short-term, and this year could be particularly turbulent for the yellow metal. However, I’m afraid that the balance of risks for gold is the downside. Next month (oh boy, it’s February already!), we will see the end of quantitative easing and the first hike in the federal funds rate, followed soon by the beginning of quantitative tightening and further rate hikes. Using its secret magic, the Fed has convinced the markets that it has become a congregation of hawks, or even a cult of the Great Hawk. According to the CME Fed Tool, future traders have started to price in five 25-basis-point raises this year, while some investors believe that the Fed will lift interest rates by 50 basis points in March. All these clearly hawkish expectations led to the rise in bond yields (see the chart below), creating downward pressure on gold.   Implications for Gold What does the recent plunge in gold prices imply for investors? Well, in a sense, nothing, as short-term price movements shouldn’t affect long-term investments. Trading and investing should be kept separate. However, gold’s return below $1,800 can disappoint even the biggest optimists. The yellow metal failed again. Not the first and not the last time, though. In my view, gold may struggle by March, as all these hawkish expectations will exert downward pressure on the yellow metal. In 2015, the first hike in the tightening cycle coincided with the bottom of the gold market. It may be similar this time, as the actual hike could ease some of the worst expectations and also push markets to think beyond their tightening horizon. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

Predictive Modeling Suggests 7~10% Rally In SPY/QQQ Before April 2022 Has the Santa Rally arrived late this year? Are traders trying to position for a Q4:2021 earnings blowout before the end of 2021? Let’s take a look at what predictive modeling can help us understand. The recent rotation in the SPY/QQQ has shaken some traders’ confidence in the ability of any potential rally – blowing up expectations of a Santa Rally. Yet, here we are with only five trading days before the end of 2021, and the US major indexes are nearing all-time highs again. PREDICTIVE MODELING SHOWS A CONTINUED MELT-UP TREND THROUGH JAN/FEB 2022 Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) Predictive Modeling system may hold the answers you are looking for. Let’s look at a few charts to prepare for what may unfold over the next 60+ days. First, this SPY Weekly ADL chart highlights the range of potential outcomes going forward into March/April 2022. The further out we attempt to predict using this technique, the more opportunity exists for outlier events (unusual price trends/activity). Yet, the SPY ADL predictive modeling system suggests a very strong upward price trend in January/February 2022, with a possible narrowing of price in late February – just before another big move higher in March/April 2022. There is an outlier trend that appears below the current price trend. So far, this outlier trend has not aligned with price action over the past 5+ weeks and shows an alternate support level near $430. Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! The ADL predictive modeling system suggests a broad market uptrend is likely in the SPY, with an initial target near $490 possibly being reached by early February. If Q4:2021 earnings come in strong and revenues continue to impress the markets, we may see a rally above the $490 level before the end of February 2022. After the tightening of price near the end of February 2022, it appears the SPY will consolidate near $480, then enter another rally phase and attempt to rally above $500. This type of price action aligns with solid Q4:2021 expectations and continued Q1:2022 economic growth. ADL PREDICTS QQQ WILL RALLY ABOVE $430 BY MARCH/APRIL 2022 This Weekly QQQ ADL Chart highlights a similar type of price trend compared to the SPY. The QQQ appears to have a more consistent upward trend bias with a fairly solid upward price channel trending through the first four months of 2022. It appears the QQQ will rally to levels above $420 by mid-February 2022, then stall for a few weeks, then resume a rally trend through most of March 2022 and into early April 2022. After mid-April 2022, it appears the QQQ will consolidate, again, near the $420~$425 level. This ADL prediction suggests Technology, Healthcare, Consumer stables/discretionary, Real Estate, and other sectors will continue to do well in Q1:2022 and beyond. A rally of 7% to 10% in the first few months of 2022 may send the US markets dramatically higher throughout the rest of 2022 if economic growth stays strong. The ADL predictive modeling system has proven to be a valuable tool in understanding what lies ahead for the markets. Not only does it show a range of potential outcomes and price targets, but it also helps us understand if and when price breaks beyond these ADL predictive ranges (which translates into a unique price anomaly). Price anomalies happen. The COVID-19 price collapse represented a unique price anomaly in 2020. This event, somewhat like a Black Swan event, hit the markets hard and quickly sent prices tumbling. It is important to understand that these events can still happen in the future and can dramatically disrupt expected price trends. Still, if the ADL predictive price trends continue to be accurate, it looks like Q1:2022 and Q2:2022 may continue to see moderate upward price trends with bouts of sideways volatility taking place. The range of the ADL predictive levels (the MAGENTA LINES) shows the type or expected volatility in the markets for Q1 and Q2. It appears volatility will stay elevated over the next 6+ months – so get ready for some big, explosive price trends. Watch for the markets to continue to melt higher over the next few weeks as traders prepare for Q4:2021 earnings to start hitting in early January 2022. We may see the US markets start another big upside price trend – possibly breaking to new all-time highs soon enough. WANT TO LEARN MORE ABOUT PREDICTIVE MODELING? Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals. Please take a minute to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn about our Total ETF Portfolio (TEP) technology and how it can help you identify and trade better sector setups. We’ve built this technology to help us identify the strongest and best trade setups in any market sector. Every day, we deliver these setups to our subscribers along with the TEP system trades. You owe it to yourself to see how simple it is to trade 30% to 40% of the time to generate incredible results. Have a great day!

  While last week's geopolitical tensions have eased a bit, the OPEC+ members’ meeting knocks at the door. How will it affect crude inventories? Crude oil prices paused this morning in the European trading session, the day after a new technical increase linked to the expiration of futures contracts. OPEC+ members, including Russia, are due to hold a meeting tomorrow in which speculative talks suggest that OPEC+ could announce a quicker increase in supply. On the other hand, US crude inventories should be scrutinized this week, with the first figure to be released later today by the American Petroleum Institute (API) at 2130 GMT / 1530 Chicago Time. Therefore, we could see a new rise in crude stockpiles of 2 million barrels. As a result, the oil market could be set to start a pullback down to previous support – $ 85.80 could represent a level that would attract more bulls, eventually. Regarding OPEC+ output, Saudi Arabia could decide to add barrels on top of its quota, as the kingdom is one of the only members of the cartel able to ramp up production, if necessary. On the US dollar side, the recent rally of the greenback has propelled the dollar index (DXY) towards higher levels, even though it has not had a huge impact on crude oil. The overall inverted/negative correlation between the USD and black gold could catch up now as we have a greenback sliding after less hawkish comments from the Fed than expected and a barrel located in overbought territory. On the geopolitical scene, the slight ease of tensions from the past week – or, at least, the diminution of anxiety inducing news in the mainstream media headlines – is characterized by decreasing volatility. The latter is thus marked by a volatility index (VIX) – aka “Fear Index” sliding just below 25 today. WTI Crude Oil (CLH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Brent Crude Oil (BRNJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) RBOB Gasoline (RBH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) In summary, after such a rally in January 2022 on crude oil prices, we may start to see a weakening of the momentum, which could result in correcting oil prices, if such a scenario of supply and demand dynamics is followed on both sides (input rise / stockpiles accumulation) of the market. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  Stocks extended their Friday’s rally yesterday, as the S&P 500 index broke above the 4,500 level. Is this still just an upward correction? The S&P 500 index gained 1.89% on Monday, as it extended its Friday’s gains and broke above the 4,500 level. It retraced more of its recent declines after breaking above the last week’s consolidation along the 4,300-4,400. On last Monday’s low of 4,222.62 the market was 596 points or 12.4% below the Jan. 4 record high of 4,818.62. And yesterday it reached the new local high of 4,516.89. It still looks like an upward correction within a downtrend, however, the market may be also trading within a new uptrend. Late December – early January consolidation along the 4,800 level was a topping pattern and the index retraced all of its December’s record-breaking advance. On Friday it broke above a steep short-term downward trend line. This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.3% higher following an overnight consolidation. The nearest important resistance level is now at 4,500-4,550, marked by the previous local lows. The resistance level is also at 4,600. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,400-4,450, marked by the recent resistance level. The S&P 500 is now back above its early December local low, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Apple Rallies Again Recently, Apple stock fluctuated along the support level of $155.0-157.5 following mid-January downtrend ahead of its quarterly earnings release. The stock reversed the downtrend after breaking above a short-term consolidation and since the earnings release it gained more than 10%. The resistance level is at around $180.0-183.0, marked by the Jan. 4 record high of $182.94. Conclusion The S&P 500 index extended its Friday’s advance yesterday and it broke slightly above the 4,500 level. It still looks like an upward correction following mid-January declines and a rebound within a new medium-term downtrend. Stocks may further extend their uptrend, but there’s a risk of a short-term downward reversal. Today the index is expected to open 0.3% higher, and we may see some uncertainty and a consolidation along the 4,500 level. The market will be waiting for the quarterly earnings releases (AMD, Alphabet today after the session’s close, Meta tomorrow and Amazon on Thursday, among others) and Friday’s monthly jobs data announcement. There is still an uncertainty concerning Russia-Ukraine tensions. We decided to close our profitable long position that was opened on Tuesday, Jan. 25 at the 4,335 level - S&P 500 continuous futures contract. The details of that position (stop-loss and profit target levels) were available for our subscribers in the premium Stock Trading Alerts. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 broke above the 4,500 level again; it still looks like an upward correction. We decided to close our speculative long position from last Tuesday (4,335 level) at the opening of today’s cash market’s trading session – a gain of around 175 index points. In our opinion, no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

AUDUSD recoups losses The Australian dollar recovered after the RBA signaled an end to its bond-buying program. The recent sell-off below the daily support and psychological level of 0.7000 further weighed on market sentiment. As the RSI dipped again into the oversold territory, short-term sellers’ profit-taking has driven the price higher. The bears could be looking to fade the current rebound unless the bulls succeed in pushing past 0.7180. 0.7030 is a fresh support and 0.6970 a major floor before June 2020’s lows near 0.6800. USDCAD tests support The Canadian dollar advanced after November’s GDP exceeded expectations. A break above the supply zone at 1.2730 has put the US counterpart back on track. Nonetheless, the rally came to a halt at the daily resistance at 1.2790. The greenback needed a breather as the surge prevented buyers from chasing after volatility. 1.2580 is a key support and an oversold RSI may raise buyers’ interest again. A close above the said resistance could propel the pair to December’s high at 1.2950. NZDUSD sees limited rebound The New Zealand dollar bounced back after the Q4 jobless rate dropped to 3.2%. The pair saw bids over September 2020’s lows around 0.6530. The RSI’s repeated oversold situation has caught bargain hunters’ attention. However, the directional bias remains bearish. The kiwi could find resistance at 0.6700 near the 20-day moving average as trend-followers look to sell into strength. 0.6400 would be the next target if the US dollar makes a comeback across the board.

Shiba Inu is seeing lower highs and lower lows compressing price action around $0.00002179. SHIB price is next set for a bullish breakout with several tailwinds present in equities. Expect for SHIB bulls to lift price action back above the 200-day SMA, potentially gaining 24%. Shiba Inu (SHIB) has been stuck in consolidation since January 22 with lower highs and higher lows, punching in both buyers and sellers towards each other with the scene set for a breakout. From the looks of it, that will be a bullish breakout, supported by tailwinds from global equities being on the front foot, with the Nasdaq leading the charge. Expect bulls to break above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) in the process, and try to reach $0.00002782, the 78.6% Fibonacci level. SHIB bullish breakout holding 28% gains Shiba Inu price may have had its low for the year after hitting $0.00001730 on January 22. Since then, the price has shifted a bit sideways around $0.00002170, with lower highs and higher lows going for consolidation between buyers and sellers. The price in SHIB is so condensed now that a breakout is due. As global markets are on the front foot and risk assets are leading the charge, these tailwinds will spin-off towards cryptocurrencies and set the stage for a bullish breakout towards $0.00002782 as target. SHIB price will, in that process, take out the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $0.00002562, which does not hold much importance seeing it only got breached on one occasion. Bulls will instead want to look out for $0.00002782, which is the 78.6% Fibonacci level and is an essential indicator that there might be an uptrend in the making. More upside will depend on how the tailwinds behave as the 55-day SMA looks quite heavy around $0.00003000. SHIB/USD daily chart Alternatively, the consolidation could still see a bearish breakout, with bears trapping bulls and running price action back to $0.00001730, or possibly even $0.00001500 back down onto the monthly S1 support level. The reason for the bearish breakout could come from very choppy economic data that could start to point to a global recession with elevated prices and job numbers worsening again. That would trigger a global risk-off wave that could put cryptocurrencies on the backfoot.

S&P 500 recoverd the opening setback at 4,500, and the low volume behind the upswing coupled with credit market reversal shows that the push towards 4,600 is next – but it would be fraught with internal vulnerability. It‘s that value has welcomed the risk-on turn while tech barely prevented lower values – the bond reprieve won‘t last, and is providing more fuel behind the commodities push higher, and precious metals recovery. The Kashkari effect and good ISM Manufacturing PMIs have worked fine, but the services data awaits. And I‘m looking at it to throw a spanner in the works, a modest one. For now, controlling the overall risk is key – fresh portfolio highs were achieved yesterday as new S&P 500 long profits were taken off the table – and commodities with precious metals are likely to do well in this extended (sticking out like a sore thumb) rally off oversold levels (in tech). The other key thought expressed in the linked tweet is that S&P 500 hasn‘t entered a bear market, that it hasn‘t rolled over to the downside for good. It‘s that I expect the return of the bears in the not too distant future, and a smoother sailing in 2H 2022. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bulls prevailed, but the question still remains – where would the upswing stall, or at least pause? Still the same answer as yesterday - ahead soon, still this week. Credit Markets HYG reversed higher, and the pace of its coming gains, would be valuable information. Volume tells a story of a modest setback only thus far – greater battles await. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver staircase recovery goes on, showing that further retreat was indeed unlikely. The long consolidation would be resolved in a bullish way, it‘s only a question of time. Great performance this early in the tightening cycle – look for PMs upswings once the rate hikes get going. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls aren‘t wavering as the whole energy sector attests to. Black gold hasn‘t dipped yet below $86, and keeps marching and leading the other commodities $100 is approaching. Copper Copper‘s recent red flag was indeed dealt with decisively, and higher prices prevailed. Still great room to catch up with the rest after the preceding reprieve across other base metals as well. Bitcoin and Ethereum The narrow crypto trading range continues – I‘m still not looking at the Bitcoin and Ethereum buyers to succeed convincingly. Time for a downside reversal is approaching – will happen just when Ethereum loses the bid. Summary S&P 500 bulls again scored gains yesterday, but the sectoral rotation and credit market turn would build a vulnerability going into Friday when value would suffer. Before that, I look for the bears to gradually start appearing again, taking probing bites, but not yet being decisive. VIX has some more room to decline indeed, confirming my earlier thoughts – the volatility return would happen on non-farm payrolls inducing a fresh guessing game as to the Mar rate hikes – 25 or 50bp? Inflation, precious metals and commodities would though still emerge victorious. For now, overall risk management is key – fresh portfolio high was reached yesterday. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

XAUUSD attempts to bounce The bullions bounce higher as the US dollar softens across the board. Gold is looking to claw back losses from the liquidation in late January. A close above the psychological level of 1800 would be the first step, pushing short-term sellers into covering their bets. The previous support at 1817 coincides with the 30-day moving average, making it an area of interest and important resistance. A bullish breakout may send the metal to the previous high at 1847. On the downside, 1780 is a fresh support. SPX 500 tests resistance The S&P 500 rallies over better-than-expected corporate earnings. A break above 4490 has eased the selling pressure on the index. The former daily support at 4600 is now a key resistance that lies over the 30-day moving average. A close above this congestion area could turn sentiment around, paving the way for a recovery towards 4750. The RSI’s overbought situation may keep the momentum in check temporarily. A pullback may see buying interest in the demand zone between 4410 and 4490. USOIL consolidates gains WTI crude continues to climb as OPEC+ refuses to raise its output limit. The RSI inched into the overbought territory on the daily chart after a new high above 85.00. The bulls could be wary of chasing after the extended rally. 85.00 has turned into a support and a pullback could be an opportunity to accumulate again. Further down, 82.00 on the 30-day moving average is a major floor for the current rally. The milestone at 90.00 would be the next target when momentum makes its return.

S&P 500 is slowly getting under pressure, which is likely to culminate on weak non-farm payrolls tomorrow if Wednesday was any guide. Credit markets are pushing for higher yields as inflation data keep surprising those policy makers who had been already surprised throughout 2021. Commodities though aren‘t freezing as a proverbial deer in the headlights, and once the scare of the Fed‘s short tightening cycle gets done away with, precious metals would join. In the meantime, look for silver to act on copper‘s cue, and for gold to do relatively better in risk-off settings.As for stocks, my gentle selling bias while on the lookout to enter short towards the session‘s end, hasn‘t changed since yesterday, and the new position is already profitable:(…) the low volume behind the upswing coupled with credit market reversal shows that the push towards 4,600 is next – but it would be fraught with internal vulnerability. It‘s that value has welcomed the risk-on turn while tech barely prevented lower values – the bond reprieve won‘t last, and is providing more fuel behind the commodities push higher, and precious metals recovery.The Kashkari effect and good ISM Manufacturing PMIs have worked fine, but the services data awaits. And I‘m looking at it to throw a spanner in the works, a modest one. For now, controlling the overall risk is key – fresh portfolio highs were achieved yesterday as new S&P 500 long profits were taken off the table – and commodities with precious metals are likely to do well in this extended (sticking out like a sore thumb) rally off oversold levels (in tech). The other key thought expressed in the linked tweet is that S&P 500 hasn‘t entered a bear market, that it hasn‘t rolled over to the downside for good. It‘s that I expect the return of the bears in the not too distant future, and a smoother sailing in 2H 2022.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls prevailed yesterday, but would get under pressure relatively soon. The ominous lower knots say a consolidation is knocking on the door.Credit MarketsHYG repelled selling pressure, but that won‘t last – I‘m looking for lower values across the bond spectrum, coinciding with (temporary) dollar upswing. Risk-off.Gold, Silver and MinersAll this risk-off already in and still to come, is failing to press gold and silver really down – and that tells you the true direction is up, just waiting for a (Fed, inflation, stagflation) catalyst.Crude OilCrude oil bulls aren‘t yet wavering, but remain perched pretty high – I‘m looking for sideways to down consolidation as the bears get emboldened by the rising volume. Trying their luck soon.CopperCopper is back to the middle of its recent range, still positioned for an upside breakout. Commodities are pointing in the right direction – note the absence of sellers yesterday. How far would the USD upswing compress the red metal today? Not much, not lastingly.Bitcoin and EthereumThe narrow crypto trading range is over, and the bears are on the move – look for them to take some time before they get going towards BTC $35K.SummaryS&P 500 bulls are about to meet the bears again, and higher yields won‘t save value stocks, let alone spawn a rush to tech safety. The pressure in stocks to probe lower values, is building up, and 4,450 may not be enough to stop it. For all the pause in Fed hawkish jawboning, the tightening cycle is merely getting started, and stocks will feel it. Unlike precious metals, which would reverse prior hesitation once the rate raising starts in earnest, and start going up. And commodities? These aren‘t waiting for anyone‘s greenlight. And neither should you in life – what I would like to bring to your attention, is that volatility is rising, and it thus makes sense to pare back the overall portfolio exposure and position sizing while taking only the strongest of opportunities.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

However, these gains attracted some profit-taking at prices around US$1,850. And in the aftermath of last week’s FOMC meeting, gold sold off for three days in a row. This merciless sell-off only ended at US$1,780 wiping out nearly all gains since mid of December. It was some form of the classic “the bull walks up the stairs and the bear jumps out the window” pattern, which is a typical behavior within an uptrend.Hence and exactly for this reason, the deep pullback did not necessarily end the recovery in the gold market. Of course, in the bigger picture, the entire precious metals sector is still stuck in this tenacious correction which has been ongoing since August 2020. In the short-term, however, the pullback has created an oversold setup and once again proved that there is buying interest at prices below US$1,800.US-Dollar index, daily chart as of February 3rd, 2022. False breakout?US-Dollar index, daily chart as of February 3rd, 2022.It also seems that the US-Dollar might have hit an important top last Thursday and is now moving lower, which would be very supportive for gold, of course. Everyone is expecting the US-Dollar to go up as the FED is expected to raise interest rates. But the US-Dollar has been discounting this “hike and taper scenario” for several months already. Actually, the US-Dollar index has been rallying +8.8% since May 2021! During the recent FOMC meeting, however, big money might have used the seeming breakout to sell their dollar longs into a favorable high-volume setup. At the same time, stock market sentiment was extremely bearish. Hence, last week likely triggered a top in the US-Dollar and a violent back and forth bottoming pattern for the stock-market.US-Dollar index, monthly chart as of February 3rd, 2022. A series of lower highs!US-Dollar index, monthly chart as of February 3rd, 2022.In the big picture, a top in the US-Dollar would continue the series of lower highs for the dollar. As well, the US-Dollar is moving within a huge triangle since 2001. After a series of three lower highs since December 2016, a test of the lower boundary of the triangle would give gold prices an extreme tailwind in the coming years. Hence, even if it´s hard to come up with any bearish arguments for the dollar at the moment, technically it looks like the dollar could roll over.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart from February 3rd, 2020. Gold’s behavior is changing.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 3rd, 2022.For gold, a weaker US-Dollar would be very helpful. In fact, since the beginning of this week, we perceive an ongoing change in gold’s behavior. We are getting impressed by its intraday strength! Every small pullback around and below US$1,800 was rather quickly bought again. So far, gold has only recovered 38.2% of last week’s nasty sell-off and currently sits pretty much exactly at its 200-day moving average (US$1,805).But the fresh buy signal from the slow stochastic oscillator on the daily chart promises more upside. Hence, we see gold fuming its way higher in the coming weeks. In the next step, gold will have to overcome the 38.2% resistance around US$1,808.50 and then continue its recovery towards US$1,830. In any case, the seasonal component is at least very favorable until the end of February. Therefore, even higher price targets are conceivable too. But gold needs to breakout above the triangle and clear US$1,850. Only then a more sustainable bullish momentum would emerge which could last further into spring.If, on the other hand, gold takes out US$1,780, the recovery since mid of December might be over already and the medium-term correction might likely pick up again.Conclusion: Seasonality favors another wave upOverall, we assume that seasonality favors another wave up in the gold market. Thus, another rally towards at least US$1,830 is realistic. We are short-term bullish, mid-term neutral to skeptic and long-term very bullish for gold.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Florian Grummes|February 3rd, 2022|Tags: EUR/USD, Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, Gold neutral, precious metals, Reyna Gold, US-Dollar|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.

AMC stock slumped yesterday as debt raise news was digested. AMC now nearly doubles the raise from $500 million to $950 million. AMC is down over 40% in the last month and 43% for 2022. AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) stock is back on the news wires the last few days, but unfortunately for holders it has not been well received. AMC stock put in three consecutive green days before slumping over 8% on Wednesday. Risk aversion returned, but AMC also announced it was raising more debt to refinance its existing debt. The stock closed at $15.42 for an 8.5% loss on the day. AMC Stock News This morning AMC has nearly doubled its debt offering from $500 million to $950 million. There is also see a bit more detail on the offering. It is to carry a 7.5% interest rate and expires in 2029. The funds will be used to retire existing debt at 10.5% expiring in 2025. The extra $450 million sees AMC also redeeming some notes at 15-17% due in 2026. So AMC is basically remortgaging at a lower rate. This will reduce its interest payments. AMC needs to do this, however, as it carries too much debt. The company has $5.4 billion in long-term debt. AMC has about $1.6 billion in cash, but it spends nearly $100 million per quarter on debt repayments. So remortgaging makes sense, but it is not exactly comforting. CEO Adam Aron has been looking for ways to improve the financial position of the company, and investors baulked at more share issuances. This was the obvious next step but comes a bit later than optimal. Junk bond yields had reached a record low during the summer. The rate of 7.5% is more or less in line with the sector. CCC high yield corporate bonds are currently yielding on average 8.3%. This is up from 6% during the summer. Moody's reacted positively and changed its outlook to positive. AMC Stock Forecast For now, AMC shares are holding the support at $14.54, but risk aversion is growing after FB earnings last night and a suprisngly hawkish Bank of England this morning. Equity markets will suffer with high risk names getting hit the most. Expect $14.54 to break with the next support at $12.22. A break here and the lure of $10 will be obvious. Only beaking $21.04 ends this curent bearish trend. AMC daily chart

EURUSD breaks higher The euro soared as traders bet that persistent inflation could force the ECB to act sooner than later. A break below the daily support at 1.1300 had put the single currency under pressure. However, a swift rebound above this support-turned-resistance indicates strong commitment from the buy-side. The pair is rising towards the January peak at 1.1480. The RSI’s triple top in the overbought area may slow the momentum down as intraday buyers take a break. 1.1270 is a key support to keep the rebound relevant. GBPUSD tests resistance The pound popped higher after the BOE raised interest rates to 0.5%. The latest rebound above the resistance at 1.3520 has prompted sellers to cover. Then the rally is accelerating towards 1.3660 which is a major hurdle from the sell-off in late January. A bullish breakout could turn sentiment in the sterling’s favor and send the price to the previous peak at 1.3740. On the downside, 1.3500 is an important support and its breach could invalidate the recovery despite the bullish catalyst. CADJPY awaits breakout The Canadian dollar recovers over growing risk appetite. A fall below the demand zone around 90.60 weighed on sentiment as the loonie struggled to make a higher high. The pair found support at 89.70 in what used to be a former supply area on the daily chart. The current consolidation is a sign of indecision. 91.10 proves to be a tough resistance to crack. A bullish breakout could bring the price to the recent peak at 92.00. Failing that, the pair may suffer from another round of sell-off below 89.10.

  Beware, the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy could lift real interest rates! For gold, this poses a risk of prices wildly rolling down. The first FOMC meeting in 2022 is behind us. What can we expect from the US central bank this year and how will it affect the price of gold? Well, this year’s episode of Fed Street will be sponsored by the letter “T”, which stands for “tightening”. It will consist of three elements. First, quantitative easing tapering. The asset purchases are going to end by early March. To be clear, during tapering, the Fed is still buying securities, so it remains accommodative, but less and less. Tapering has been very gradual and well-telegraphed to the markets, so it’s probably already priced in gold. Thus, the infamous taper tantrum shouldn’t replay. Second, quantitative tightening. Soon after the end of asset purchases, the Fed will begin shrinking its mammoth balance sheet. As the chart below shows, it has more than doubled since the start of the pandemic, reaching about $9 trillion, or about 36% of the country’s GDP. It’s so gigantic that even Powell admitted during his January press conference that “the balance sheet is substantially larger than it needs to be.” Captain Obvious attacked again! In contrast to tapering, which just reduces additions to the Fed’s holdings, quantitative tightening will shrink the balance sheet. How much? It’s hard to say. Last time, during QT from 2017 to 2019, the Fed started unloading $10 billion in assets per month, gradually lifting the cap to $50 billion. Given that inflation is now much higher, and the Fed has greater confidence in the economic recovery, the scale of reduction would probably be higher. The QT will create upward pressure on interest rates, which could be negative for the gold market. However, QT will be a very gradual and orderly process. Instead of selling assets directly, the US central bank will stop reinvestment of proceeds as securities run off. As we can read in “Principles for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet”, The Committee intends to reduce the Federal Reserve's securities holdings over time in a predictable manner primarily by adjusting the amounts reinvested of principal payments received from securities held in the System Open Market Account. What’s more, the previous case of QT wasn’t detrimental to gold, as the chart below shows. The price of gold started to rally in late 2018 and especially later in mid-2019. Third, the hiking cycle. In March, the Fed is going to start increasing the federal funds rate. According to the financial markets, the US central bank will enact five interest rate hikes this year, raising the federal funds rate to the range of 1.25-1.50%. Now, there are two narratives about American monetary policy in 2022. According to the first, we are witnessing a hawkish revolution within the Fed, as it would shift its monetary stance in a relatively short time. The central bank will “double tighten” (i.e., it will shrink its balance sheet at the same time as hiking rates), and it will do it in a much more aggressive way than after the Great Recession. Such decisive moves will significantly raise the bond yields, which will hit gold prices. However, in this scenario, the Fed’s aggressive actions will eventually lead to the inversion of the yield curve and later to recession, which should support the precious metals market. On the other hand, some analysts point out that central bankers are all talk and – given their dovish bias – act less aggressively than they promise, chickening out in the face of the first stock market turbulence. They also claim that all the Fed’s actions won’t be enough to combat inflation and that monetary conditions will remain relatively loose. For example, Stephen Roach argues that “the Fed is so far behind [the curve] that it can’t even see the curve.” Indeed, the real federal funds rate is deeply negative (around -7%), as the chart below shows; and even if inflation moderates to 3.5% while the Fed conducts four hikes, it will remain well below zero (about -2%), providing some support for gold prices. Which narrative is correct? Well, there are grains of truth in both of them. However, I would like to remind you that what really matters for the markets is the change or direction, not the level of a variable. Hence, the fact that real interest rates are to stay extremely low doesn’t guarantee that gold prices won’t decline in a response to the hiking cycle. Actually, as the chart above shows, the upward reversal in the real interest rates usually plunges gold prices. Given that real rates are at a record low, a normalization is still ahead of us. Hence, unless inflation continues to rise, bond yields are likely to move up, while gold – to move down. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.

S&P 500 is grinding lower, and bonds concur. Risk-off posture and rising yields aren‘t tech‘s friend really, and the VIX is back to moving up. The odd thing is that the dollar wasn‘t well bid yesterday as could have been expected on rising rates – the sentiment called for a bad non-farm payrolls number today. Understandably so given Wednesday‘s preview, and the figure would just highlight how desperately behind the inflation curve the Fed is, what kind of economy it would be tightening into, and shine more light on its manouevering room for Mar FOMC.Fun times ahead for the bears, and the S&P 500 short profits can go on growing – the ride isn‘t over: If tech – in spite of the great earnings Amazon move – gets clobbered this way again on the rising yields, then we could very well see even energy stocks feel the initial selling wave. Not that value stocks would be unaffected, to put it more than mildly – just check yesterday‘s poor showing of financials. Something is going to give, and soon.Precious metals are holding up relatively well, regardless of the miners‘ weakness. Commodities can go on enjoying their time in the limelight – crude oil is not even momentarily dipping, and copper stands ready to keep probing higher values within its still sideways range. Even cryptos are benefiting from what could almost be described as a daily flight to safety.As I wrote in extensive Monday‘s analysis and repeated since, stiff winds are still ahead in spite of the soothing verbal pause in tightening. As the 467K figure just in beats expectations, the Fed gets its justification to withdraw liquidity any way it pleases.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls are getting slaughtered, and the downhill path is likely to continue, thanks to tech. Brace for a volatile day today.Credit MarketsHYG selling pressure made a strong return, predictably. Credit markets are leading stocks to the downside, certainly.Gold, Silver and MinersAs written yesterday, all this risk-off already in and still to come, is failing to press gold and silver really down – and that tells you the true direction is up. The downswings are being bought.Crude OilCrude oil bulls in the end didn‘t waver, and are pushing higher already – the upside breakout can really stick.CopperCopper is back to the middle of its recent range, still positioned for an upside breakout. It would take time, and precede the precious metals one. Rising commodities are sending a clear message as to which way the wind is blowing.Bitcoin and EthereumThe crypto bears didn‘t get far, and it looks like we‘re back to some chop ahead. SummaryS&P 500 bulls are getting rightfully challenged again – the Fed hikes are approaching. See though how little are commodities and precious metals affected. Meanwhile the S&P 500 internals keep deteriorating. Today‘s analytical introduction is special in talking the non-farm payrolls and Fed tightening dynamic, and explains why the pressure in stocks to probe lower values, is still building up, and that 4,450 may not be enough to stop it. For all the pause in Fed hawkish jawboning, the tightening cycle is merely getting started, and today‘s surprisingly strong data gives the Fed as much justification as the quickening wage inflation. I hope you enjoyed today‘s extensive analysis and yesterday‘s risk exposure observations. Have a great day ahead!Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Ethereum price made a false break below a short-term trend line yesterday.ETH price breaks above $2,695 and is set for a run towards $3,018.This would mean 13% gains for ETH and a more favourable outlook for next week.Ethereum (ETH) price is set to book the best gains it has made for the whole of 2022, as a bullish candle has now formed on the back of a significant support level. With that move, many bears are getting hurt as they probably fell in the bear trap with the false break below the supportive short-term trend line. Expect more upside to come with global markets enjoying the rally in Amazon shares, which is spilling over into cryptocurrencies and lifting sentiment in ETH towards $3,018.ETH bulls are stabbing bears in the back with a trapEthereum price was dangling below a short-term trend line and looked quite heavy after the slippage (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/top-3-price-prediction-bitcoin-ethereum-ripple-crypto-sentiments-rolls-over-as-meta-shakes-nasdaq-202202031412) from META earnings. But that markets can change their minds overnight is proven yet again, after Amazon’s earnings fueled a booster rally which we are seeing today. This has spilled over into cryptocurrencies and is lifting sentiment in ETH prices with a firm break above $2,695, squeezing out bears in the process, who went short on the false break of the trend line, and it is now just a matter of time before they close out and take their losses.ETH price is thus set for a second rally today as those bears will need to revert to the buy-side volume (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereum-price-pushes-higher-eth-targeting-3-500-202202021800) to close and cut their losses. This will add a boost to ETH prices and could see Ethereum bulls hitting the price target at $3,018, taking out the $3,000 level, and setting the stage for next week. With that move, the red descending trend line could be broken, and with that, the downturn since December, finally (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereum-price-pushes-higher-eth-targeting-3-500-202202021800) breaking the chances for bears and setting the stage for a possible longer-term uptrend.ETH/USD daily chartNevertheless, there are still some earnings on the docket for today that could surprise to the downside and see those tailwinds (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/top-3-price-prediction-bitcoin-ethereum-ripple-crypto-markets-to-favor-bears-soon-202202020838) as quickly fade as they came. Expect that with that lack of support, ETH price will collapse back to $2,695 and start to weigh further on the bulls. Should that spiral into equities, pushing them firmly in the red, and impacting safe haven flow – expect a dip back towards $2,600.

While everyone is criticizing Russia, it’s easy to follow the US ‘savior’ narrative. However, what if we looked at what’s happening with oil in mind?Disclaimer to today’s article: I’m providing this analysis from a pure energy-focused perspective. I do not claim it represents THE right view, but rather one of those that won’t be as visible in the mainstream. It is interesting to add different views as pieces of the same puzzle. I am looking forward to reading yours in the comments!Picture Source: MemedroidSeveral port facilities in Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium have been the target of cyberattacks, prompting the judicial authorities to investigate the suspicions of extortion of funds at the expense of German operators in the oil sector. Indeed, it would appear that this series of computer hackings that began several days ago primarily concerns oil terminals. This is disrupting deliveries in several major European ports against a backdrop of soaring energy prices.After jumping the day before, thanks to the strengthening of the euro against the US dollar induced by ECB President Lagarde, oil prices continued to rise during the European session on Friday. Consequently, the fall in the greenback came on top of the recovery in demand, the fall in US crude inventories and the disruptions in supply to boost the price of black gold on the climb, the two crude benchmarks evolving above the psychological mark of 90 dollars a barrel, galvanized by solid demand and tensions on the offer coming from (geo-)political risks.Who is Provoking Who?The situation is rather complex on the geopolitical scene, with the US claiming that Russia is planning an invasion in Ukraine, whereas the US under NATO cover sent additional troops to Eastern Europe. The question that may arise here is: who is provoking who? So far, we haven’t seen Russia placing troops in Mexico, on the border with the United States. On the other hand, the Biden administration may encounter difficulties in accepting that the Kremlin can agree to various partnerships with its European neighbors, especially regarding more favorable energy supplies. Instead, it’s in the US interest to weaken those diplomatic relations, potentially leading to additional partnerships that may arise between the EU and Putin.And as we see the US-led narrative getting through the Western mainstream media with more aggressive, suspicious, and tense tones towards Russia, this obviously has the effect of pouring some oil on the Russian-Ukrainian fire. Furthermore, the US needs reasons to demonstrate that NATO is still alive and relevant while a number of countries are now questioning their own participation in the US-led military organisation created in 1949, even going so far as to show some doubts regarding its current motivations.Isolating the Russian BearBy maintaining a hostile tone towards Russia’s intentions, the US is consequently trying to isolate the Russian bear and push their European partners to blindly follow the “official narrative” (as the EU being part of NATO), which could possibly lead to new sanctions on Russia, the latter being able to retaliate by using its energy assets and capacities to deprive the EU of the Russian supplies, which currently on the gas side represent between 30% and 40% of total gas imports for Europe. Then, as a result, the Americans could start exporting more gas into Europe via Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) shipping – which again could benefit their energy-led commercial balance – the Europeans thus becoming the losing players in this game.As an example, we saw this week that a tanker loaded with LNG from the US will arrive at the LNG terminal in Świnoujście (Poland) at the end of this month, since Poland has LNG import capabilities which could be used to deliver US gas to Ukraine. Apparently, this is the second time (after the first one took place two years ago) that such gas deliveries are made by PGNiG, the Polish state-controlled oil and gas company, in cooperation with ERU (their strategic trading partner on the Ukrainian market).Actually, Ukraine suspended imports of Russian gas at the end of 2015. After relying on Russian gas imports for decades, they currently increasingly depend on imports from Europe. Since Ukraine has no LNG import capabilities, such US gas deliveries have been organized via a pipeline from the Polish terminal (through re-gasified LNG).WTI Crude Oil (CLH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart)Brent Crude Oil (BRJH22) Futures (April contract, daily chart)RBOB Gasoline (RBH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart)Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGG22) Futures (February contract, daily chart)In summary, geopolitics is always complex because it relies on individual economic and strategic interests of countries. The readings also depend on different views, and since there is always a lot of noise, it often helps to take some steps back in order to analyze the global situation from a different angle.Have a nice weekend! And remember to chime in on the conversation.Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

USDCHF bounces higherThe US dollar rallied after January’s nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations. The latest pullback found support near the previous low at 0.9180.A bullish RSI divergence suggests a loss of momentum in the sell-off. A close above 0.9275 would force short-term sellers to cover and pave the way for a broader rebound.Then the double top (0.9360) on the daily chart would be the next target. On the downside, a bearish breakout may send the pair to 0.9110.USDCAD awaits breakoutThe loonie weakened after a rise in Canada’s unemployment rate in January. The greenback has previously come to a halt at the daily resistance (1.2800).The retracement then found bids at the resistance-turned-support at 1.2650, suggesting traders’ strong interest in keeping the two-week-long rally intact. The RSI has inched into the overbought territory and may drive the price lower with short-term profit-taking.A bullish breakout may extend the uptrend to December’s peak at 1.2950.GER 40 lacks supportThe Dax 40 drifts lower after the ECB’s hawkish turn. The recent rebound met stiff selling pressure at 15740. Then a fall below 15350 indicates a lack of commitment from the buy-side.A bearish MA cross suggests an acceleration to the downside and may attract more bears. The demand area around 14850 is a critical floor on the daily chart. Its breach could trigger a bearish reversal in the medium term.An oversold RSI may cause a limited bounce. The bulls need to reclaim 15500 in order to turn sentiment around.

Friday's US labour market report raised the chances of a sharper Fed rate hike, placing USD on a solid footing.Employment growth of 467K in January was well above forecasts. In addition, there was a noticeable upward revision to the job gains of the previous couple of months. Furthermore, wage growth accelerated to 5.7% y/y, marking the unwinding of the inflationary spiral.The markets are applying a 33% chance of a 50-point key rate hike by the Fed in March, leaving a 67% chance of a standard move of 25 points. This is a dramatic reassessment of the outlook, as just a month ago, rate futures were leaving a 24% chance that there would be no rate hike in March.Hawkish comments from Europe and England has added fuel to the fire. Last week, the Bank of England minutes 4 out of 9 MPC members voted for a 50 point rate hike. The ECB is warming to a rate hike this year and potentially twice, although they rejected the idea back in December.In our view, Friday's labour market report showed that the US still has a head start on the pace of economic recovery, which will allow for more monetary policy tightening.This is potentially positive news for the dollar, which found ground late last week after correcting by 2.3% from its peak in late January. If the Fed strengthens its signals of willingness to hike the rate by 50 points in mid-March in the coming weeks, it will be grounds for stronger dollar buying.History suggests that the momentum of the appreciation of the US currency against major competitors is exhausted a few months after a rate hike. Usually, it becomes clear that other central banks have already moved on to the pace of Fed rate hikes and are often even prepared to act more decisively.But we are not yet in this phase, and the Fed's policy, as well as the US economic indicators, provide the dollar with a head start for the foreseeable future. As early as February, the dollar index could rewrite the January highs near 97.5 against the current 95.56 and take the DXY into the 100-103 area by mid-year.

S&P 500 refused to break below 4,450s, and junk bonds took off the lows as well. The bottom isn‘t in, but I‘m looking for a little reprieve next. The degree to which bonds were sold off vs. stocks, hints that we would have lower to go still, ultimately bottoming around late Feb, perhaps even early Mar. Increasingly more Fed hikes are being priced in, and Friday‘s good non-farm payrolls figure is reinforcing these expectations.Treasuries are telling the story as well – the 10-year yield has been surging lately while the 30-year bond didn‘t move nearly as much. It means a lot of focus on Fed tightening, which is making the recent Amazon and Meta earnings ability to move stocks this much, all the better for the S&P 500 in the short run. The 10-year yield is likely to retrace a part of its prior increase, and that would give stocks some breathing room. At the same time though, I don‘t think that the tech selling is done, that tech is out of the woods now – the current rally is likely to run out of steam over the next 5-10 days, then go sideways to down.As for the immediate plan for Monday‘s session, I think the 4460s would hold on any retest, should we get there at all. The bulls have a very short-term advantage, then as mentioned above, selling would resume, and around May or June we could get the answer as to whether we‘ve been just consolidating or topping out. Before that, we‘re in a quite wide range where current stock market values aren‘t truly reflecting bond market sluggishness.Keeping in mind the key Friday‘s conclusion:(…) Precious metals are holding up relatively well, regardless of the miners‘ weakness. Commodities can go on enjoying their time in the limelight – crude oil is not even momentarily dipping, and copper stands ready to keep probing higher values within its still sideways range. Even cryptos are benefiting from what could almost be described as a daily flight to safety.As I wrote in extensive Monday‘s analysis and repeated since, stiff winds are still ahead in spite of the soothing verbal pause in tightening. As the 467K figure just in beats expectations, the Fed gets its justification to withdraw liquidity any way it pleases.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls aren‘t yet winning, but have a good chance to suck in those who believe the tech bottom is in – tech bears would get another opportunity in the not too distant future.Credit MarketsHYG paused, and the heavy selling is catching a bid – reprieve is approaching even if Friday‘s highs didn‘t last.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals aren‘t getting anywhere, and are likely to warmly embrace the upcoming pause in higher yields. But that‘s not yet the true fireworks we would get later in 2022, which would come on the Fed‘s abrupt U-turn.Crude OilCrude oil bulls aren‘t even remotely pausing – I wouldn‘t count on pullback towards $88 or lower really. There is still much strength in black gold regardless of the Iran sanctions waiver – triple digit oil I called for months ago, is getting near.CopperCopper is back to the middle of its recent range, and the downside looks fairly well defended. The upside breakout would take time, and precede the precious metals one. Rising commodities are still sending a clear message as to which way the wind is blowing.Bitcoin and EthereumThe crypto break higher attests to the return of strength underway, and it‘s supported by the volume. The buyers have the short-term upper hand.SummaryS&P 500 bulls withstood the prospect of hawkish Fed getting more job market leeway on Friday, and look to be entering the week with a slight advantage. Also the bond markets look nearning the moment of calming down as the longer durations are painting a different picture than the 10-year Treasury. S&P 500 would like that, but the tech rebound would get tested as we likely move lower to welcome Mar. Till then, stocks are likely to drift somewhat higher before the rally runs out of steam over the next 5-10 days. Full game plan with reasoning is introduced in the opening part of today‘s extensive analysis. Cryptos good performance on Friday is as promising as the commodities surge – enjoy the days ahead.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Bitcoin price looks overextended as it grapples with the 50-day SMA and the weekly resistance barrier at $42,816. Ethereum price pierces through the bearish breaker and approaches the 50-day SMA at $3,242. Ripple price approaches the $0.757 to $0.807 supply zone that could cut the uptrend short. Bitcoin price has seen tremendous gains over the past three days as it attempts to overcome a massive hurdle. While altcoins like Ethereum and Ripple have corresponded to this bullishness, investors need to exercise caution with fresh investments as a retracement could be around the corner. Bitcoin price faces a decisive moment Bitcoin price has risen 18% over the past four days and is currently hovering below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the weekly resistance barrier confluence at $42,816. If this uptrend is a bull trap, BTC is likely to see rejection followed by a retracement to the immediate support level at $8,481. A breakdown of the said barrier will knock the big crypto down to $34,752. In an extremely bearish case, Bitcoin price could revisit the $30,000 psychological barrier and collect the liquidity resting below it. BTC/USD 1-day chart If BTC produces a daily candlestick close above the breaker’s upper limit at $44,387, however, it will invalidate the bearish thesis. While this development will alleviate the sell-side pressure, it does not mean that Bitcoin price has flipped bullish. A daily candlestick close above $52,000 will produce a higher high and suggest the possible start of an uptrend. Ethereum price slithers close to bearish thesis invalidation Ethereum price has followed the big crypto and pierced the bearish breaker, ranging from $2,789 to $3,167. Any further bullish momentum will push ETH to climb higher and retest the 50-day SMA at $3,242. Assuming BTC retraces, investors can expect Ethereum price to face rejection at $3,242, leading to a 25% pullback to the weekly support level at $2,324. In a highly bearish case, Ethereum price could revisit the $1,730 weekly support level and collect the sell-side liquidity resting below it. ETH/USD 1-day chart Regardless of the bearish outlook, the Ethereum price can invalidate the short-term bearish outlook if it produces a daily candlestick close above the $3,167 resistance zone. A bullish scenario could be kick-started, however, if buyers push ETH to produce a swing high at $3,413. Ethereum price gains momentum to breakout to $3,300 Ripple price faces a blockade Ripple price broke out of its consolidation and rallied 25% from $0.604 to $0.754. This impressive move is currently retesting the weekly resistance barrier at $0.740, which rests below another hurdle that extends from $0.757 to $0.807. Rejection at this multi-resistance zone seems likely considering the situation in which Bitcoin is in, and investors can expect the Ripple price to retrace 16%, returning to the consolidation zone at $0.628. XRP/USD 1-day chart A daily candlestick close above the supply zone’s upper limit at $0.807 will signal a resurgence of buyers and indicate their willingness to move higher. In this case, Ripple price could set up a higher high by rallying 12% to $0.911.    

  Gold’s latest feats increased investors’ appetite. The outlook for the dollar, however, remains healthy. That can only mean one thing. As volatility erupts across the financial markets, gold and silver prices are being pulled in conflicting directions. For example, with the USD Index suffering a short-term decline, the outcome is fundamentally bullish for the precious metals. However, with U.S. Treasury yields rallying, the outcome is fundamentally bearish for gold and silver prices. Then, with panic selling and panic buying confronting the general stock market, the PMs are dealing with those crosscurrents. However, with QE on its deathbed and the Fed poised to raise the Federal Funds Rate in the coming months, the common denominator is rising real interest rates. To explain, the euro’s recent popularity has impacted the USD Index. For context, the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the dollar basket’s movement. Thus, if real interest rates rise and the U.S. dollar falls, what will happen to the PMs? Well, the reality is that rising real interest rates are bullish for the USD Index, and the euro’s recent ECB-induced rally is far from a surprise. With investors often buying the EUR/USD in anticipation of a hawkish shift from the ECB, another ‘hopeful’ upswing occurred. However, the central bank disappointed investors time and time again in 2021, and the currency pair continued to make new lows. As a result, we expect the downtrend to resume over the medium term.  Supporting our expectations, I wrote the following about financial conditions and the USD Index on Feb. 2: To explain, the blue line above tracks Goldman Sachs' Financial Conditions Index (FCI). For context, the index is calculated as a "weighted average of riskless interest rates, the exchange rate, equity valuations, and credit spreads, with weights that correspond to the direct impact of each variable on GDP." In a nutshell: when interest rates increase alongside credit spreads, it's more expensive to borrow money and financial conditions tighten. To that point, if you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the FCI has surpassed its pre-COVID-19 high (January 2020). Moreover, the FCI bottomed in January 2021 and has been seeking higher ground ever since. In the process, it's no coincidence that the PMs have suffered mightily since January 2021. To that point, with the Fed poised to raise interest rates at its March monetary policy meeting, the FCI should continue its ascent. As a result, the PMs' relief rallies should fall flat like in 2021.  Likewise, while the USD Index has come down from its recent high, it's no coincidence that the dollar basket bottomed with the FCI in January 2021 and hit a new high with the FCI in January 2022. Thus, while the recent consolidation may seem troubling, the medium-term fundamentals supporting the greenback remain robust. Furthermore, tighter financial conditions are often a function of rising real interest rates. As mentioned, the USD Index bottomed with the FCI and surged to new highs with the FCI. As a result, the fundamentals support a stronger, not weaker USD Index. As evidence, the U.S. 10-Year real yield, the FCI, and the USD Index have traveled similar paths since January 2020. Please see below: To explain, the green line above tracks the USD Index since January 2020, while the red line above tracks the U.S. 10-Year real yield. While the latter didn’t bottom in January 2021 like the USD Index and the FCI (though it was close), all three surged in late 2021 and hit new highs in 2022. Moreover, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury nominal and real yields hit new 2022 highs on Feb. 4.  In addition, if you compare the two charts, you can see that all three metrics spiked higher when the coronavirus crisis struck in March 2020. As such, the trio often follows in each other’s footsteps. Furthermore, with the Fed likely to raise interest rates at its March monetary policy meeting, this realization supports a higher U.S. 10-Year real yield, and a higher FCI. As a result, the fundamentals underpinning the USD Index remain robust, and short-term sentiment is likely to be responsible for the recent weakness.  Likewise, as the Omicron variant slows U.S. economic activity, the ‘bad news is good news’ camp has renewed hopes for a dovish Fed. However, the latest strain is unlikely to affect the Fed’s reaction function. A case in point: after ADP’s private payrolls declined by 301,000 in January (data released on Feb. 2), concern spread across Wall Street. However, after U.S. nonfarm payrolls (government data) came in at 467,000 versus 150,000 expected on Feb. 4, the U.S. labor market remains extremely healthy.  Please see below: Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) On top of that, the BLS revealed that “the over-the-month employment change for November and December 2021 combined is 709,000 higher than previously reported, while the over-the-month employment change for June and July 2021 combined is 807,000 lower. Overall, the 2021 over-the-year change is 217,000 higher than previously reported.”  Thus, the U.S. added more than 700,000 combined jobs in November and December than previously reported, and the net gain in 2021 was more than 200,000. Please see below: Source: BLS As for wage inflation, the BLS also revealed: “In January, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 23 cents to $31.63. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 5.7 percent.” As a reminder, while investors speculate on the prospect of a hawkish ECB, the latest release out of Europe shows that wage inflation is much weaker than in the U.S. To explain, I wrote on Feb. 1: Eurozone hourly labor costs rose by 2.5% YoY on Dec. 16 (the latest release). Moreover, the report revealed that “the costs of wages & salaries per hour worked increased by 2.3%, while the non-wage component rose by 3.0% in the third quarter of 2021, compared with the same quarter of the previous year.”  As a result, non-wage labor costs – like insurance, healthcare, unemployment premiums, etc. – did the bulk of the heavy lifting. In contrast, wage and salary inflation are nowhere near the ECB’s danger zone. Please see below: And why is wage inflation so critical? Well, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said on Jan. 25: Source: ECB As a result, when the ECB’s Chief Economist tells you that wage inflation needs to hit 3% YoY to be “consistent” with the ECB’s 2% overall annual inflation target, a wage print of 2.3% YoY is far from troublesome. Thus, while euro bulls hope that the ECB will mirror the Fed and perform a hawkish 180, the data suggests otherwise.  In addition, while U.S. nonfarm payrolls materially outperformed on Feb. 4, I noted on Feb. 2 that there are now 4.606 million more job openings in the U.S. than citizens unemployed. Please see below: To explain, the green line above subtracts the number of unemployed U.S. citizens from the number of U.S. job openings. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the epic collapse has completely reversed and the green line is now at an all-time high. Thus, with more jobs available than people looking for work, the economic environment supports normalization by the Fed. Thus, if we piece the puzzle together, the U.S. labor market remains healthy and U.S. inflation is materially outperforming the Eurozone. As a result, the Fed should stay ahead of the ECB, and the hawkish outperformance supports a weaker EUR/USD and a stronger USD Index. Moreover, the dynamic also supports a higher FCI and a higher U.S. 10-Year real yield. As we’ve seen since January 2021, these fundamental outcomes are extremely unkind to the PMs. Finally, while the Omicron variant has depressed economic sentiment, I noted previously that the disruptions should be short-lived. For example, with Americans’ anxiety about COVID-19 decelerating, renewed economic strength should keep the pressure on the Fed. Please see below: To explain, the light brown line above tracks the net percentage of Americans concerned about COVID-19, while the dark brown line above tracks the change in flight search trends on Kayak. In a nutshell: the more concern over COVID-19 (a high light brown line), the more Americans hunker down and avoid travel (a low dark brown line). However, if you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the light brown line has rolled over and the dark brown line has materially risen. Moreover, with the trend poised to persist as the warmer weather arrives, increased mobility should uplift sentiment, support economic growth, and keep the Fed’s rate hike cycle on schedule. The bottom line? The USD Index’s fundamentals remain extremely healthy, and while short-term sentiment has been unkind, rising real yields and a hawkish Fed should remain supportive over the medium term. Moreover, with the PMs often moving inversely to the U.S. dollar, more downside should confront gold, silver, and mining stocks over the next few months. In conclusion, the PMs rallied on Feb. 4, despite the spike in U.S. Treasury yields. However, with so much volatility confronting the general stock market recently, sentiment has pulled the PMs in many directions. However, the important point is that the medium-term thesis remains intact: the USD Index and U.S. Treasury yields should seek higher ground, and the realization is profoundly bearish for the precious metals sector. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

XAUUSD breaks resistance Gold continues to recover as the US dollar treads water. The previous fall below the daily support at 1785 had put the bulls on the defensive. The RSI’s oversold signal attracted some buying interest and prompted sellers to cover, driving up the price. The rebound has since gained traction after the metal rallied above the support-turned-resistance at 1817. In fact, the bullish breakout may raise momentum and open the door to the recent peak at 1850. On the downside, 1795 is a major support to keep buyers committed. NZDUSD remains under pressure The New Zealand dollar edges lower amid cautious market sentiment at the start of the week. The pair previously bounced off September 2020’s low around 0.6530. However, 0.6700 on the 20-day moving average so far has proven to be a tough hurdle. A drop below the fresh support (0.6630) indicates that the directional bias remains bearish. And sellers would be eager to fade another rebound. 0.6590 is the closest support. A break below 0.6530 could trigger a new round of sell-off towards 0.6400. UK 100 awaits breakout The FTSE 100 rallies supported by solid performance in the commodity sector. The recent rebound hit resistance near the January peak at 7640. Narrowing consolidation and higher highs suggest increased buying pressure. A bullish breakout would flush sellers out and attract momentum traders, firing up volatility in the process. This would be a strong bullish continuation signal. 7460 is a fresh support if the market remains indecisive. Its breach could extend the correction back to 7250.

S&P 500 bulls missed the opportunity, but credit markets didn‘t turn down. Yesterday‘s pause is indicative of more chop ahead – the risk-on rally can‘t be declared yet as having run out of steam, no matter the crypto reversal of today. Bonds are in the driver‘s seat, and the dollar is also cautious – unless these move profoundly either way, the yesterday described S&P 500 reprieve can still play out even if: (…) The bottom isn‘t in, but I‘m looking for a little reprieve next. The degree to which bonds were sold off vs. stocks, hints that we would have lower to go still, ultimately bottoming around late Feb, perhaps even early Mar. Increasingly more Fed hikes are being priced in, and Friday‘s good non-farm payrolls figure is reinforcing these expectations. As for the immediate plan for Monday‘s session, I think the 4460s would hold on any retest, should we get there at all. The bulls have a very short-term advantage, then as mentioned above, selling would resume, and around May or June we could get the answer as to whether we‘ve been just consolidating or topping out. The 4,460s are still holding while commodities look to be consolidating today. As the dollar is up somewhat, bonds would have to face opening headwinds – the effect upon tech would be telling. I‘m still looking for downswing rejection in stocks while precious metals would hold up better than commodities today. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook As stated yesterday, S&P 500 bulls aren‘t yet winning, but have a good chance to suck in those who believe the tech bottom is in – tech bears would get another opportunity in the not too distant future. Credit Markets HYG gave up the opening strength, and the bulls are likely to get under pressure soon – it‘s that yesterday‘s session lacked volume, thus interest of the buyers. The clock is ticking. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals keep refusing to make lower lows – that‘s the most important aspect of their tempered ascent. And price gains would accelerate later in 2022, which would come on the Fed‘s abrupt U-turn. Crude Oil Now, crude oil bulls did pause, but the dip isn‘t likely to reach too far – I still wouldn‘t count on pullback towards $88 or lower really – oil stocks would have to turn decidedly down first. Copper Copper is getting cautious, and would probably decline should the commodities pause continue – no matter what other base metals would do at the same time. Still, that‘s internal strength in the waiting, similarly to the precious metals strength. Bitcoin and Ethereum The crypto break higher ran out of steam, warning of a rickety ride ahead – not just in cryptos. Things can still get volatile. Summary S&P 500 bulls haven‘t lost the opportunity to force higher prices, but need to repel the upcoming intraday flush that can come today, and possibly even continue tomorrow. Yes, instead of seizing upon the chance, bonds have merely paused, creating a perfect environment for whipsawish trading today – I‘m still expecting Friday‘s lows to hold on a closing basis, but I‘m not ruling out a fake breakdown first. The very short-term outlook is simply choppy until the bond market upswing kicks in in earnest. And that would provide more fuel to precious metals and commodities while pressuring the dollar – seems though we would have to wait for a while to see that happen. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  The latest employment report strongly supports the Fed’s hawkish narrative. Surprisingly, gold has shown remarkable resilience against it so far. What a surprise! The US labor market added 467,000 jobs last month. As the chart below shows, the number is below December’s figure (+510,000) but much above market expectations – MarketWatch’s analysts forecasted only 150,000 added jobs. Thus, the report reinforces the optimistic view of the US economy’s strength, especially given that the surprisingly good nonfarm payrolls came despite the disruption to consumer-facing businesses from the spread of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus. The unemployment rate increased slightly from 3.9% in December to 4% in January, as the chart above shows. However, it was accompanied by a rise in both the labor force participation rate (from 61.9% to 62.2%) and the employment-population ratio (from 59.5% to 59.7%). Last but not least, average hourly earnings have jumped 5.7% over the last 12 months, as you can see in the next chart. It indicates that wage inflation has intensified recently, despite the surge in COVID-19 cases that was expected by some analysts to dent demand for workers. Hence, the January employment report will cement the hawkish case for the Fed. Rising wages will add to the argument for decisive hiking of interest rates, while the surprisingly strong payrolls will strengthen the Fed’s confidence in the US economy.   Implications for Gold What does the latest employment report imply for the gold market? The unexpectedly high payrolls should be negative for the yellow metal. However, while gold prices initially plunged below $1,800, they rebounded quickly, returning above its key level, as the chart below shows. Gold’s resilience in the face of a strong jobs report is noteworthy and quite encouraging. After all, the report strengthened the US dollar and boosted market expectations of a 50-basis point hike in the federal funds rate in March (from 2.6% one month ago to more than 14% now). Such a big move is unlikely, but the point is that financial conditions are tightening without waiting for the Fed’s actual actions. In the past, gold disliked strong economic reports and rising bond yields and showed a negative correlation with nonfarm payrolls, but not this time. More generally, although long-term fundamentals have turned more bearish in recent months, gold has remained stuck at $1,800. However, last week, two factors could have supported gold prices. The first was rising volatility in the equity market. The S&P 500 Index dropped almost 500 points, or 10%, in January, as the chart below shows. Although it has recovered somewhat, it still remains substantially below the top, with the tech sector experiencing weakness. On Thursday, the shares of Meta, Facebook’s parent company, plunged more than 20%. The second potentially bullish driver was last Thursday’s meeting of the ECB’s Governing Council. The central bank of the Eurozone was more hawkish than expected. Christine Lagarde acknowledged inflationary risks and said that she had become more concerned with the recent surge in inflation. According to initial estimates, the annual inflation rate in the euro area amounted to 5.1% in January 2022, the highest since the common currency was created. Lagarde also backed off her previous guidance that the interest rate hike was “very unlikely” in 2022. The ECB’s pivot – the central bank opening the door for the first rate increase since 2011 – boosted the euro against the greenback. The bottom line is that gold has made itself comfortable around $1,800 and simply doesn’t want – or is not ready – to go away in either direction, at least not yet. The battle between bulls and bears is still on. I’m afraid that, given the relatively aggressive monetary and financial tightening, the sellers will win this clash and gold will drop before the bulls can regain control over the market. However, recent gold’s resilience indicates that there is an underlying bid in the markets and bulls are not giving up. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

Stacking bitcoins winning edges It is not the number of edges that get it low risk. And again, there are no hidden magic formulas. What works well is covering multiple aspects in stacking one’s edges: Market behavior Time of day Oscillators for ranging markets Indicators for trending markets Supply/demand zone identification (VWAP=volume weighted average price, in addition to support and resistance lines) Inter-market relationships Leading/lagging (relative strength within a sector or group) Candlestick pattern Volume Time frame relationships Action-reaction principle News Day of the week Swing leg count MAE (=maximum adverse excursion) Mathematical/statistical edges like standard deviation Your list might look vastly different but should include tools that cover the principal variants of market behavior (ranging, trending, slow/fast price action, liquidity, time, volume, transactions). Investopedia is a good research tool for finding definitions and explanations of the various available technical tools. BTC in US-Dollar, daily chart, how we stack odds in our favor: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 8th, 2022. Our previous chart book release described fundamental reasons for being bullish on bitcoin, which we stack in a similar principled fashion. We pointed out that we were looking for low-risk entry points to build up a long-term position for bitcoin. Such a low-risk opportunity arose on February 3rd, last week. We had the following edges stacked at the time of entry (green arrow): General price strength (directional yellow line channel) Previous day retracement (action-reaction principle) Small range Doji for tight stop and possible reversal indication VWAP (blue histogram to the right of the chart) indicating a supply zone Scheduled ECB news item out of the way Time of week Time of day (we entered near the close of the daily candle) Extended from the mean (blue line, standard deviation) Commodity Channel Index (CCI). A momentum-based oscillator useful in congested sideways channels, gave the prior day to execution indication of a long entry (yellow arrow) We posted our entry in real-time in our free Telegram channel. Within a 24-hour period, we could profit on half of the position size for a gain of 8.73%. We also posted this first profit-taking target in real-time in our free Telegram channel. Our quad exit strategy provides income-producing revenues like this but, even more, eliminates risk. Consequently, this approach supports trading the remaining position with psychological ease for the intended long-term holding period. Hence, even starting out as a a short-term trade, the last 25% of the initial position can become a long-term invest. BTC in US-Dollar, weekly chart, well-positioned: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 8th, 2022. With previous entries at recent lows established in much the same manner, we are now exposed to the market with seven remaining rest positions at zero risk. Such an approach can afford to negate whether this will be the long-term turning point or not. Profits have been made. Should our plan pan out, then the remaining exposed capital will lead to further profits. Otherwise, this remaining position size will stop out at breakeven entry level. The weekly chart shows now a confirmed situation of a weekly bar takeout. For most traders this is an entry signal while we were already well established. We are playing with the market’s money and profits banked. With this time frame alignment more money is expected to join the long side. The chart also illustrates the favorable risk/reward-ratio to the right of the chart.   BTC in US-Dollar, monthly chart, early bird: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of February 8th, 2022. A glance at the monthly chart shows we are positioned very early and aggressively for this time frame. Nevertheless, as soon as prices might reach US$48,000, we will find ourselves here as well time frame aligned with a bar takeout. Green numbers show our entry prices for January with two entries and February with five entries. Should prices move upwards in our favor, we would take again partial profits near the red horizontal trend line slightly below all-time highs. The remaining positions stays in place for a possible breakout to all-time new highs. Too late if you are not positioned yet? No! This continuous flow of adding low-risk entry trades followed by partial profit-taking allows participating at all stages of market swings. Stacking bitcoins winning edges: In short, you want to have a clear instruction sheet on what to do in whatever market condition bitcoin throws at you. With a set of tools broadly covering all these variants and measuring them, you will be able to act without hesitancy. Then you can hope for the best, since you planned for the worst. Risk control is the core of each advanced trading approach! We aim to keep it simple, like a card counter, which supports executing high probability winning trades. At the same time, the crowd is confronted by surprising news or fast-moving markets. They use reactionary, inappropriate execution, which in turn creates losing trades. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|February 6th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

Sandbox price action has broken above $4.72 but fades in early trading today. SAND price action is at the intersection of a red descending trend line and the historical pivot level. Expect current favourable tailwinds to boost confidence for bulls leading to a break to the upside and new all-time highs. Sandbox (SAND) price action broke above $4.72 yesterday and saw bulls trying to test $5.0. But the intersection of the descending trend line and a pivot level proved to be too heavy and pushed price action back below the $4.72 historical level. Expect bulls to keep supporting as more tailwinds coming from geopolitics support the case for more upside potential towards $6.0. Sandbox price targets $6 for this week Sandbox price looked set to finally end the downtrend since November 25. The intersection of the red descending trend line dictating the downtrend and the historical $4.72 pivotal historic level from November 23, proved too big of a hurdle for price action to close above yesterday. Instead, bulls decided to take profit with price fading as we speak. SAND does not need to one-directionally tank further but will probably see bulls keeping price close to the pivotal $4.72 level. With several favorable tailwinds, such as positive news from talks between Putin and Macron, investors look to be back on the scene and putting some money on the table to invest in risk assets like cryptocurrencies. This will filter through in the demand side volume and will provide the needed impetus to punch through $4.72 again and close above, putting an end to the downtrend and targeting $6.0 this week. SAND/USD daily chart The resistance double whammy at the aforementioned intersection could prove too big of a temptation for profit-taking, and result in the Relative Strength Index dipping further, below 50, and translate into further downside for the altcoin towards $4.28, making it even harder to try for a daily close above $4.72. That could lead to yet more liquidation and see a return to a base level around $3.50.

EURUSD hits resistance The euro fell back after ECB President Lagarde tried to cool rate hike expectations. The rally came under pressure at the January peak of 1.1480. The RSI’s overextension at this daily resistance prompted momentum buyers to cash in. A combination of profit-taking and fresh selling may drive the exchange rate lower. Short-term sentiment remains upbeat though unless the single currency drops below the origin of its bullish push at 1.1270. A recovery above 1.1480 could pave the way to last October’s high at 1.1690. GBPUSD consolidates gains The sterling turns higher as traders price in an increasingly hawkish Bank of England. A break above 1.3520 forced sellers to cover some of their positions. However, the pound’s rally came to a halt in the supply zone around 1.3620. The RSI’s overbought situation and bearish divergence suggest softness in the underlying momentum. The pair found bids on the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (1.3490), which sits in the aforementioned supply area. A new rally may propel the pair to the daily resistance at 1.3750. US 30 bounces higher The Dow Jones 30 inches higher supported by better-than-expected earnings. The index steadied after successive breaks above 34800 and 35450. Nonetheless, the recent recovery slowed down on the 30-day moving average, a sign of a lingering cautious mood. 34500 is a key support to keep the rebound relevant. A bearish breakout could extend the correction to 33800. On the upside, a rally above 35700 could attract momentum traders and initiate a bullish reversal to 36500.

NIO stock gets a strong rating from latest Barclays research. NIO remains bearish and is down 25% year to date. NIO and other Chinese EV names remain in growth mode as the latest delivery data showed. NIO stock remains mired as it ended Monday virtually flat. The stock is down over 40% from three months ago as Chinese names see international investors flee on regulatory concerns. NIO Stock News It has been a turbulent time for holders of Chinese tech stocks. Alibaba's ANT Group spin-off set things off. Then the DIDI delisting not long after its IPO added to woes. Then a host of regulatory crackdowns was the final straw for international investors who bailed out of the names en masse. This is despite the EV names in particular remaining on track from a growth perspective as all have posted strong delivery data. While January deliveries slowed from December, the yearly growth rates still are impressive. January is traditionally the slowest month of the year in China though due to the lunar new year. NIO for example delivered 7.9% fewer vehicles in January versus December. On a yearly basis, January deliveries were 33.6% higher. This was replicated across many other Chinese EV names. Now Barclays has picked up the theme as it issues a bullish note this morning. "We believe that the rapid adoption of EVs around the world and booming EV sales have presented China’s EV makers a rare opportunity to not only take a sizable market share of the domestic auto market – the largest in the world with about 25-30% global share by units sold per annum – but also build a dominant position on the world stage." Barclays put a $34 price target on the shares. This does highlight the potential growth potential of Chinese tech stocks and the EV space in particular. We question whether investors will reenter, however, having been let down previously. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice... Ok, let's not have another George W. Bush moment! The point is a valid one. It will likely take more than analyst upgrades to tempt investors back to the space. Goldman, the king of investment banks, has previously been strongly bullish on NIO and to no avail. It will take a series of strong earnings and relative calm in terms of regulatory concerns to eventually tempt investors back. NIO Stock Forecast The recent spike lower did fill the gap from back in October 2020. The market just loves to fill gaps. We also note this spike lower created a shooting star candle, a possible reversal signal. There is already a bullish divergence from the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as shown. The area around $27.34 is the first resistance. Getting back above indicates the bearish trend may finally be slowing. That would then bring NIO into a range-bound zone from $27 to $32. Only breaking $33.80 from January 3 ends the downtrend. Support is at $14 from the strong volume profile. Look for an RSI breakout as that could signal more gains. The RSI has been shrinking in range and may test an upside breakout. NIO 1-day chart

Bitcoin price slows down its ascent after flipping the $42,748 hurdle into a foothold. Ethereum price contemplates a retracement after facing the 50-day SMA at $3,208. Ripple price looks ready for consolidation after a 51% ascent over the past four days. Bitcoin price rally is slowing, allowing bulls to take a breather before the next leg-up. While some might argue the short-term outlook looks bearish – due to the flash crash in January, the bigger picture reveals cryptocurrency (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies) markets still have the potential to go higher. A Wells Fargo report published in February reveals that cryptocurrency adoption is growing exponentially and, in many cases, resembles the growth curve of internet adoption. The American financial corporation even goes on to state the crypto sector could soon exit the initial phases of adoption and enter “an inflection point of hyper-adoption.” Wells Fargo Report: Internet usage history vs crypto users Bitcoin price at a decisive moment Bitcoin price rallied 25% in the last four days and set up a swing high at $45,539.(https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-begins-correction-after-45k-rejection-where-can-btc-price-bounce-next-202202081914) The rally rippled out, triggering copycat moves in other altcoins and the cryptocurrency market in general. Yet BTC failed to produce a daily candlestick close above the breaker’s upper limit at $44,387. So, as a result, the bearish outlook is still in play. Investors should be prepared for anything between a minor retracement and a full-blow bear trap. An optimistic scenario will likely see BTC retest the weekly support level at $39,481 before triggering the next leg-up. A more pessimistic scenario, however, would speculate that Bitcoin price could crash to $34,752. A breakdown of this support floor could be the key to triggering a crash to $30,000 or lower. BTC/USD 1-day chart While things look on the fence for Bitcoin price, (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/bitcoin) a daily candlestick close above $44,387 will invalidate the bearish thesis. A bullish regime, however, will only kick-start if BTC produces a daily candlestick (https://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/chart/candlestick-patterns) close above $52,000.   Ethereum price takes a breather Ethereum (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/ethereum) price seems to be undergoing a pullback (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereum-price-holds-above-3k-but-network-data-suggests-bulls-may-get-trapped-202202090153) as it faces off with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,208 while still hovering inside a bearish breaker, extending from $2,789 to $3,167. A rejection here could lead to a retracement to $2,812, where buyers have a chance at restarting the uptrend. Assuming the bullish momentum picks up, there is a good chance ETH could slice through the $3,208 and make a run for the $3,413 hurdle. The local top for Ethereum price could be capped around the convergence of the 50-day and 100-day SMAs at roughly $3,600. ETH/USD 1-day chart On the other hand, if Ethereum price fails to stay above $2,812, it will indicate that buyers are taking a backseat. This development will invalidate the bullish scenario and trigger a crash to the weekly support level at $2,324. Ethereum price could liquidate bulls if ETH falls below $3,000 Ripple price to reestablish directional bias Ripple price broke out of its ten-day consolidation (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/xrp-price-could-easily-return-to-1-under-one-condition-202202081437) and rallied 51% in just four days. This run-up sliced through the $0.740 and $0.817 hurdles, flipping them into support levels. While this climb was impressive, XRP price is likely to retrace as investors begin to book profits. The resulting selling pressure could push Ripple price down to the $0.740 support level where buyers can band together for a comeback. In some cases, the U-turn might not arrive until a retest of the $0.595 to $0.632 demand zone. Regardless, investors can expect XRP price to run up to $1 and collect the liquidity resting above it. XRP/USD 1-day chart On the contrary, if the Ripple price fails to stay above the $0.595 to $0.632 demand zone, it will reveal the lack of bullish momentum and hint that a further descent is likely. In this case, XRP price will sweep below the $0.518 support level to collect the sell-side liquidity resting beneath. XRP price could easily return to $1 under one condition

Peloton shares continue to be the most discussed stock on mainstream and social media. Two straight days of 20%-plus gains for PTON stock. The new CEO gets just the start he would have wanted. It is not exactly reassuring to your confidence when you step down as CEO of a company and the stock immediately explodes higher. Investors clearly had enough of Peloton's (PTON) former CEO John Foley. New man Barry McCarthy hits the ground running despite some mixed commentary from the analyst community this morning. Peloton Stock News Peloton reported earnings on Tuesday. The stock had already surged on news (https://www.fxstreet.com/news) of a new CEO and continued reports that the company may be in the sights of big tech eyeing a potential takeover for the beleaguered fitness company. Revenue came in at $1.13 billion below the $1.15 billion estimate. Earnings per share (EPS) came in below estimates at $-1.39 versus the $-1.20 estimate. The outlook was also weak with Peloton seeing full-year 2022 revenue at $3.8 billion, while analysts had forecast $4 billion. Following the results, Stifel maintained its buy rating on PTON with a $45 price target. Macquarie maintained its outperform rating with a lowered $60 price target, while Barclays also lowered its price target to $60 as well. Bank of America said, "Our estimates that assumed price cuts would drive new demand were too optimistic." BofA has a $42 price target for the stock. Peloton shares had already been strongly ahead in Tuesday's premarket before the earnings release. This was due to the new CEO and a cost-cutting plan including laying off 2,800 employees. The list of potential buyers for Peloton continued to grow as speculation mounted. Potential acquirers include virtually every major fitness company, numerous big tech firms, Berkshire Hathaway and SoftBank. We do question whether in particular big tech would get much benefit out of the acquisition. Fitness has been a big part of the wearable market, and Peloton's subscribers are its value, but do Apple, Amazon and Google really struggle that much for users? Sports companies mentioned include Nike (NKE) and Adidas (ADDYY). These may make more sense as the subscribers could generate more value, add-ons and ancillary sales. Peloton Stock Forecast The weekly chart (https://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/chart) gives us all the information we need going back to the launch in September 2019. Peloton (PTON) rallied all the way up to $171 this time last year before steadily falling back. The stock has now totally retraced all of the pandemic gains and then some. In that respect, investors may be tempted to buy into the name as subscribers in 2019 totaled just over 500,000, whereas currently Peloton has 2.77 million subscribers. From the weekly chart, we can see the power of volume gaps we often talk about. Peloton broke sharply once it entered the light volume zone from $81 to $37. Now it has stabilized at a high volume zone and the point of control. This does set a potential base for the stock. (https://www.fxstreet.com/markets/equities) Peloton (PTON) chart, weekly The daily chart below shows we have had a bullish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) since the last earnings despite the share price continuing to slide. $23 remains support with first resistance at $46. This latest move is likely to calm down unless more takeover talk surfaces. If the price move does calm, then holding above $30 is key to keeping the bottom in place. Peloton (PTON) chart, daily  

S&P 500 bulls took the opportunity yesterday amid mild credit market support. Looks like more fireworks are to come – the risk-on turn is merely starting. Not only financials, but also tech welcomed higher yields – it seems that the positive seasonality of 2nd to 3rd week of Feb, is working. We have quite a way to go still on the upside – 4,600s are waiting, and it remains to be seen how far in the 4,600 – 4,700 range stocks make it. Consumer discretionaries are outperforming staples, and energy isn‘t cratering – the brief commodities reprieve (don‘t look though at copper, which seems preparing a nice upside move, or crude oil‘s shallow dip) supports the stock market advance. Precious metals are rising strongly – both thanks to inflation expectations not budging much, and the expected copper upturn. Not even cryptos are plunging. The open S&P 500 and oil profits can keep on rising. Looks like the markets are slowly positioning for yet another hot inflation number tomorrow. How many times lately have there been expectations that high CPI data would sink stocks – but these rallied instead? Thursday is likely to turn out similarly – I‘m not looking for the stock market rally to top out tomorrow. The Mar FOMC is still quite a few weeks away, 50bp rate hike fears notwithstanding. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bulls have made the opening step, and look ready to extend gains. Even volume has returned a little, but importantly, sellers were nowhere to be seen – and that‘ll likely be the case today as well. Credit Markets HYG couldn‘t keep the opening gains, but junk bonds still did better than their quality counterparts. Anyway, the HYG weakness looks likely to be reversed (to some degree) today. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals are firmly on another upleg – and miners strength is confirming that. When inflation turns out more stubborn than generally appreciated, and bond yields don‘t catch up nearly enough, precious metals would like that. Love that. Crude Oil Now, crude oil bulls did pause, but the dip isn‘t likely to reach too far – I still wouldn‘t count on pullback towards $88 or lower really – this correction is more likely to be in time than in price. Copper Copper is clearly refusing to decline – its upswing looks to be a question of shortening time only. Likewise the commodities reprieve would be reversed shortly. The red metal‘s price action coupled with precious metals one, is very nice to see – for the fruits it would bring. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos aren‘t weakening – they look to be pausing in the upswing only. How long would they need to consolidate before continuing the attempt to go higher? Summary S&P 500 bulls have a firm grip on higher prices – we‘re looking at another green day today. And if it‘s accompanied by the turning bonds, then all the better. Tech has risen, oil is a little down while sectoral breadth improves – the conditions are in place for S&P 500 to overcome 4,600. The risk-on rally hasn‘t yet run out of time, and the Mar FOMC is still far away. Upgraded rate hike prospects are being increasingly absorbed by the markets, and stocks don‘t look spooked at the moment. The bears‘ time would still come though, but let‘s first enjoy the gains our timely positioning is bringing. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

AUDUSD breaks higher The Australian dollar climbs as traders wager on a hawkish shift from the Reserve Bank of Australia. On the daily chart, a break above the 30-day moving average suggests improved sentiment in the short term. The pair extended its gains after it broke the supply area around 0.7170. As sellers scramble to cover their bets, driving up bids, the rally is heading to the next resistance at 0.7210. The RSI’s overbought situation may cause a temporary pullback with 0.7110 as the first support. EURGBP seeks support The euro consolidates gains amid mixed messages from the ECB. The pair found support at February 2020’s low at 0.8290, and a bullish MA cross on the daily chart suggests a potential turnaround. A break above the daily resistance at 0.8405 has put the single currency back on track. An overbought RSI led momentum traders to take profit. The current pullback is testing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (0.8405) which used to be a resistance. 0.8475 is the main hurdle for the reversal to gain traction. USOIL tests support WTI crude bounces higher after the EIA reported a sharp drop in US inventories. Price action is looking to consolidate its gains above the psychological level of 90.00. Sentiment remains upbeat though the bulls need to take a breather after the latest vertical ascent. 88.00 on the 20-day moving average is the immediate support. An oversold RSI may attract buying interest. A deeper retracement would test 85.00. A recovery above 92.30 could trigger momentum buying once again and resume the rally towards 95.00.

S&P 500 upswing continued amid increasing credit market support. Risk-on, finally – and commodities are on fire again, with precious metals awaiting their time in the spotlight. That‘s the big picture view as markets keep digesting the recently upgraded hawkish talk of the Fed. Or more precisely in my view, they‘re sniffing out the inevitability of the Fed having to make a U-turn later this year. Meanwhile, any temporary hint of lower Treasury yields – the reprieve is arriving – is eagerly embraced by the tech while value is disregarding that. As a result, S&P 500 market breadth is improving, and as stated yesterday, the positive seasonality of 2nd to 3rd week of Feb, is working. Today‘s CPI data would show inflation isn‘t relenting – even White House warned about hot year on year figure coming. Coupled with the tightening job market, the question is now what remains of the budding S&P 500 upswing and bond market reprieve. It‘s becoming increasingly clear that the Fed would have to really move, and that inflation is biting and not exactly sinking input costs. That‘s where we have the cost-push inflation I talked relentlessly over many quarters last year, and wage pressures joining at the hip. It‘s really about letting copper and oil profits keep growing now, while taking off S&P 500 long ones off the table. Done, and PMs are to join next. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bulls had a great day, and need a solid close today against the poor inflation data. This isn‘t though likely to happen unless bonds hold up well during the regular session. Mission impossible, almost. Credit Markets HYG extended gains yesterday, and would need to defend them today. What remains of the risk-on posture, is key to determining the stock market rally longevity vs. waning power. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals are firmly on another upleg – I‘m not looking for setbacks during the opening selling pressure to last. The direction is firmly up. Crude Oil Crude o