joe biden

Joseph O'Connor, also known as "Plugwalk Joe", was found guilty of running an advanced hacking campaign that involved hijacking the Twitter accounts of famous people and trying to defraud their followers. Barack Obama, Joe Biden and Elon Musk suffered in the case, for example, through whose accounts cryptocurrencies were extorted.

 

The perpetrator was sentenced to five years in prison. O'Connor was extradited from Spain to the US in April and pleaded guilty to the charges in May.

 

These included mass hacking of social media accounts, cybercrime and cyberstalking, among others. He and his associates carried out the attack in early 2020. They contacted some Twitter employees by phone and manipulated them into obtaining login details. This gave the hackers access to the website's internal administration tools.

 

 

They used this access to post a Bitcoin scam on over 130 celebrity Twitter accounts. According to the Department of Justice (DoJ), they also sold access to some

The Gold Rally Is Continuing To Stall, This Could Be A Good Year For Crude Oil

Biden Visits Europe. How Are You Bitcoin? Price Of Crude Oil Have Declined, What About Popular Forex Pairs? Swissquote's MarketTalk

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 28.03.2022 10:23
The week kicks off on a mixed note as US President Joe Biden called Putin a ‘butcher’ and said in a speech in Warsaw that ‘for God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power’. Then, the news that Shanghai is going to a phased lockdown didn’t help lifting the mood in Asia. Oil, which rallied last Friday on news of a drone attack on a Saudi storage facility, slumped again this morning below $110pb. OPEC+ will announce its latest decision this week. In the FX, the US dollar begins the week on strong footage, as the dollar index advances above the 99 mark on geopolitical tensions and the Fed hawks, but the flattening and the inversion of the yield curve bring about the worries of a recession in the US. The EURUSD slips below the 1.10 mark on the back of a stronger US dollar. Besides the OPEC decision, investors will watch inflation data from the US and Eurozone, US jobs report, EV deliveries and US House vote on cannabis. Pot stocks are on fire, as Bitcoin and Ethereum rallies over the weekend. Could the optimism last? Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:21 Market update 0:55 Oil slumps on Shanghai lockdown: opportunity in price pullbacks? 4:32 Bitcoin, Ethereum rally 5:22 Pot stocks on fire before US House vote 6:39 Week Ahead: US jobs, inflation 7:48 US dollar up, as more portions of the curve invert Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.
Global Steel Production Declines, Copper Market in Surplus, Nickel Inventories Increase

Metals: Biden Administration May Ban Russian Aluminium, So Does LME

ING Economics ING Economics 19.10.2022 12:36
Global aluminium prices briefly rallied after news that the United States is considering an effective ban on Russian imports of the metal in response to the conflict in Ukraine. This comes at a time when the LME is also discussing the possibility of banning Russian metal from its warehouses US mulls Russian aluminium ban Metals have been mostly spared in the rounds of sanctions imposed on Russia that followed its invasion of Ukraine on 24 February. The news of a potential US ban has revived memories of the chaos in the aluminium market that ensued when the US administration placed sanctions on Russian aluminium producers in April 2018. Back then, LME prices jumped to their highest level in seven years at $2,718/t, before gradually falling in the following weeks and months. Sanctions were then lifted in January 2019. This time around, while we have seen strength on the back of reports of a possible ban, the gains have been more modest given the lack of confirmation from US officials along with the fact there are several forms of action that could be taken. Three potential scenarios for the US The Biden administration is reportedly weighing up three potential measures: a complete ban on Russian aluminium, increasing tariffs to levels that would effectively act as a ban, and sanctioning the company that produces Russian aluminium: Rusal. The scale of the impact will depend on which of the three options the US opts for. The war in Ukraine has had little effect so far on Russian aluminium exports to the US with most customers likely to have entered into long-term contract agreements. US ban or higher import tariffs – limited impact In the scenario that the US imposes a ban or raises tariffs on Russian aluminium, there will likely be a limited impact on the global market. The US is not a significant buyer of Russian aluminium. The US imported about 192,000 mt of primary aluminium from Russia in 2021, accounting for just over 5% of the total 3.64 million mt of primary aluminium imported that year. Russia was the third-largest exporter of primary aluminium to the US in 2021, but imports from the country were far behind the 2.54 million mt and 354,000 mt shipped from Canada and the United Arab Emirates, respectively. In the first half of this year, the US imported about 120,000 mt of primary aluminium from Russia out of 2.12 million mt in total imports. If the US shuns Russian metals, Russia may increase its exports to sanction-neutral countries like China, the world’s biggest aluminium consumer. China would then buy discounted Russian material to use domestically and export its aluminium products to Europe and the US to fill the gap left by the Russian import ban. China imported 230,511 tonnes of primary aluminium from Russia this year through August, accounting for 77% of its total aluminium imports. Unless a US ban is accompanied by an EU or LME ban, any spike in prices that would follow such a move would most likely be short-lived. Sanctions option more of a concern However, if the US decides to sanction Rusal, the impact could be more severe, bearing in mind the market’s reaction to the sanctions in 2018. The move could freeze the Russian producer out of Western markets, depending on the severity of sanctions, which would boost global prices for the metal and distort global aluminium trade flows. Rusal is the largest aluminium producer outside of China and the only primary aluminium producer in Russia. The company produced 3.76 million tonnes of the metal in 2021, accounting for 6% of worldwide production. Rusal is not only a major producer of primary aluminium. It is also deeply embedded in global supply chains needed to make the metal – bauxite and alumina. Rusal’s 2018 sanctions affected operations in Guinea and Jamaica, while smelters in Europe struggled to secure raw material supplies. The Irish government also considered intervention to safeguard jobs at Rusal Aughinish Alumina, Rusal’s largest producer of alumina. If the US sanctions the Russian aluminium producer, it could make other buyers cautious of taking in Russian material, fearing exposure to possible secondary sanctions. Supply tightness and shortages that would likely follow would be most felt in Europe, where the industry is already grappling with low stock supplies and is more reliant on Russian supply. Europe is Rusal’s biggest customer, accounting for 40% of sales revenues. Buyers have been increasingly pushing back as contracts for next year are being negotiated. Some companies, including Novelis and Norsk Hydro, have already rejected Russian material for next year’s supplies.   US sanctions could also encourage the LME to act – the bourse launched a discussion paper earlier this month on a potential ban of Russian metals. Back in 2018, after sanctions were imposed, the LME barred users from delivering any metal made by Rusal into its global warehouses. This would, as a result, make traders and consumers cautious of buying new metal from Rusal, since they wouldn’t be able to deliver it to the LME – the buyer of last resort. LME discussion on Russian metals The LME is considering three options: it could continue to accept Russian metal, set a cap on Russian metal in LME warehouses, or issue an outright ban. Given that Russia accounts for about 5% of global aluminium output, the metal would be one of the most affected if we were to see a ban or limits on Russian deliveries into LME warehouses. Russian aluminium has accounted for as much as three-quarters of LME stockpiles over the past decade, according to the exchange. Clearly, the LME is worried about the risk of Russian metal being dumped into LME warehouses as buyers become less willing to accept Russian metals for next year’s supplies. Russian metals flow into the exchange’s warehouses, in the scenario that the LME doesn’t issue a ban or only limits Russian deliveries, which would cause some issues. Firstly, a strong increase in LME inventories could put further pressure on prices, while there could also be a growing amount of aluminium in LME warehouses, which buyers are not willing to touch. This could potentially lead to a disconnect in prices. There is already speculation that recent LME inventory increases in copper and aluminium are being driven by Russian material. LME on-warrant aluminium stockpiled jumped 63% so far this week and now stands at 527,675 tonnes, according to data from the bourse, with the increase driven by deliveries into Malaysia’s Port Klang warehouses. On-warrant stockpiles have now doubled since the start of October. A full ban on Russian metals would be the most bullish outcome of the LME discussion paper, effectively cutting Russian metals off from the exchange. With LME disappearing as the market of last resort for Russian metals, Russian suppliers would have to look elsewhere for willing buyers. Disruption to trade flows would likely offer an upside to affected metals, including aluminium. Read this article on THINK TagsRussian metals Aluminium Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Hawkish Fed Minutes Spark US Market Decline to One-Month Lows on August 17, 2023

The Presidential Election In The US In 2024, Will Joe Biden Be Run For It

ING Economics ING Economics 22.10.2022 08:27
President Joe Biden is not on the ballot at the 8 November mid-term elections, but the outcome will determine how much he can achieve in the second half of his presidential term and how the government can respond to growing recession risks. It will also be an important barometer for the Republican Party and whether Donald Trump will run against Biden in 2024   In this article What Is happening? What are the key issues? The state of play What history tells us The scenarios and what might happen in the next two years The market impact The market impact The market impact   What Is happening? All 435 members in the House of Representatives are up for election (currently 220 Democrat, 212 Republican, three vacant). This is a two-year term. The Senate is comprised of 100 members. Each Senator has a six-year term with approximately a third up for election every two years; 34 Class 3 Senate seats + one seat due to vacancy is up for election on 8 November. Of these 35 Senate seats 21 are currently held by Republicans and 14 are Democrat. The Senate membership is currently 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats, and two independents who vote with the Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris (Democrat) gets the deciding vote in a tied ballot. Republicans need to win one seat (net) from the Democrats to control the Senate. Should the Democrats lose control of either the House or the Senate (or both) then President Biden’s ability to pass legislation will be severely curtailed. He would likely be limited to using executive powers – a heavily restricted form of lawmaking without tax-changing powers. It will therefore be important in defining what support can be offered to the economy in a likely recession – will the onus be on fiscal policy or monetary policy? The presidency is not up for election until 2024, but the outcome of the mid-terms could determine whether President Biden stands again and whether former President Trump will seek the Republican nomination to run. The mid-term elections will also have implications for Biden’s climate agenda. Partial or full Republican control of Congress will add difficulties to the execution of clean energy tax incentives and funding under the Inflation Reduction Act, as well as other climate measures the administration intends to establish before the next presidential election. In all the scenarios of the election outcome, we can expect more measures coming from federal government agencies to regulate emissions. 36 states and three territories also hold gubernatorial elections – a vote to elect a governor to a four-year term, except for New Hampshire and Vermont where the governor serves a two-year term. Of the 36 states up for election, 20 currently have a Republican governor and 16 have a Democrat. Guam (Dem), US Virgin Islands (Dem) and the Northern Mariana Islands (Rep) are the territories holding elections. Numerous state elections for Attorney General, Secretary of State, Treasurer and state legislative elections are also occurring. This could have major implications in a contested election in 2024. There are also various local referendums, including abortion legislation referendums in six states.   What are the key issues? President Biden’s approval rating, while low by historical standards, has increased following recent legislative “wins” surrounding green policies, infrastructure and technology. The Democrat Party’s stance following the Supreme Court’s vote to eliminate the constitutional right to obtain an abortion has also helped lift approval ratings.  Nonetheless, the most important issue according to pollsters is the state of the economy with the rising cost of living, higher interest rates and falling asset prices all causing concern for the electorate. Percentage of Americans mentioning economic issues as the nation's most important problem   Source: Gallup   The perception of poor performance in government is the second most cited negative factor. In the immediate aftermath of the Supreme Court’s vote on abortion, this issue did become the top issue for 8% of respondents, having been at 1% the previous month. It has since slipped back to 4%. Other issues respondents cite as the top concern for the election Source: Gallup The state of play Mid-term elections are typically seen as a referendum on the effectiveness of a president and their party during the first two years of their term. The omens are not good so far, with President Biden’s approval at this stage in his presidency very low by historical standards, matching Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan and just ahead of Donald Trump. All three took heavy losses in their first mid-term election. High levels of partisanship, the high (and rising) cost of living, a weakening economy and falling asset prices are all hurting President Biden and the Democrats. Presidential approval ratings six weeks before mid-term elections Source: Gallup   The election of House members tends to reflect generic Republican-Democrat polling. FiveThirtyEight collates opinion polls which suggest that Democrats and Republicans are tied on 45% each, with 10% of the population undecided. Turnout is therefore key for the Democrats if they are to retain a winning margin in the House. People who want political change tend to vote in greater numbers than those who are content with the status quo. Mid-term election turnout tends to be far lower than for presidential election years. Typically, presidential election years see a turnout of 50-60% with 2020 seeing 67% turnout. Mid-term elections typically see a turnout of around 40% although 2018 saw a 53% turnout. Hence, the consensus amongst political forecasters is that the Republicans will win a narrow victory thanks to their more motivated base. The Senate and Gubernatorial elections are different to the House elections in that senators and governors tend to be better known and individual personalities play a greater role in the decision-making process for the electorate. One way of looking at it is that California only has one governor and two senators, but 52 house seats. Consequently, the Senate races are less driven by national issues that impact generic Democrat-Republican voting patterns in the House. Most polls show the majority of Senate seats up for election are solid Democrat or solid Republican. There are perhaps only four Senate seats out of the 35 up for contention where there is genuine uncertainty on the outcome. The Cook Political Report lists one Democrat seat in Georgia and one in Nevada as a “toss-up” while one Republican Senate seat in Pennsylvania and one in Wisconsin are listed similarly. Hence the Senate is a closer call than the House. What history tells us Only three out of the last 22 mid-term elections (going back to Franklin D Roosevelt’s presidency in 1934) have seen the incumbent president’s party make gains in the House of Representatives (nine seats for Roosevelt in 1934, five seats for Clinton in 1998 and eight seats for George W Bush in 2002). The six-seat gain that the Republicans need to win control of the House has been achieved on 17 occasions since 1934 and in each of the last four mid-terms. The median loss of House seats for an incumbent’s party since 1934 has been 28. In the Senate, the incumbent president’s party has gained seats on six occasions and lost seats 15 times with one no-change outcome since 1934. The median change in the past 21 occasions has been a loss of five seats. The Republicans need to pick up just one seat to control the Senate. House and Senate gains/losses for incumbent presidents at mid-term elections Source: Wikipedia, ING   While the backdrop supports the view that the Republicans have a chance to win control of the Senate, individual Republican candidates have run into difficulties. For example, Herschel Walker in Georgia has lost ground following an abortion scandal, while there are independent voter concerns regarding inexperience and extremism in other candidates. Most political forecasts have the Democrats maintaining control of the Senate, but it is a close call. Betting markets narrowly show a majority expecting the Republicans to win control of both the House and the Senate. Implied probabilities of outcomes based on PredictIt betting odds – spreads mean numbers do not sum to 1 Source: Macrobond The scenarios and what might happen in the next two years Republicans win the House and Democrats retain the Senate: Biden constrained. 50% probability President Biden struggled to pass legislation when he had a Democrat majority in both the House and the Senate. Without a majority in Congress, it is nigh on impossible. Intense partisanship with just two years to go until the next presidential elections means major legislation is unlikely to pass unless there is a national emergency. President Biden’s legislative actions are therefore likely limited to the use of executive orders and actions to circumvent Congress, where allowed. This is a much more limited form of government. Executive orders can only be implemented in areas where the president has constitutional powers, such as trade negotiations. The president cannot use an executive order to change taxes because that power is held by Congress. Executive orders can be an effective way of implementing policy since legislation is often written in broad, general language. Legislation is often set out to achieve certain targets or aims without explicitly saying how this should be done. An executive order can allow the president to specify in more detail the route to achieve those aims. These orders only apply to Federal agencies. Consequently, Biden’s focus may shift towards international relations and trade policy where the president is less constrained by Congress. Given that the fear of recession is rising, the president is going to have less scope to offer fiscal support given the requirement of having Republican legislators on board. This suggests that once inflation is under control the onus is going to be on the Federal Reserve to offer stimulus to the economy. This is our base case for aggressive interest rate cuts from the second half of 2023 onwards. A Senate controlled by the Democrats would still be able to approve the president’s choices for key positions, such as judges. With control of the House, Republicans gain congressional investigative powers, with some on the right already proposing looking into the president’s son, Hunter Biden’s, business dealings. They can also stall or disband other inquiries, including the committee investigation into the 6 January insurrection. Trump’s enlarged power base in the House could also lead to investigations into the FBI search at Mar-a-Lago. From a sustainability perspective, the landmark Inflation Reduction Act is unlikely to be repealed if the Republicans control either the House or the Senate because President Biden has the authority to veto the repeal, or any other passed legislation intended to replace the original law. However, under a divided Congress, it could be tough to execute the planned clean energy spending under the Inflation Reduction Act. Republicans could make it harder for the tax credits and funding to be distributed through stricter procedure inspection. Under this scenario, Biden will also likely embark on more climate initiatives from the executive branch, such as issuing executive orders or directing agencies to roll out more aggressive carbon regulations, although the latter faces challenges from the Supreme Court. A split Congress and President Biden left to focus on international issues such as trade could end up proving mildly positive for the dollar and bad for EMFX. The Biden Administration’s stance on Chinese trade has not been as accommodative as many had expected back in 2020 and the recent tightening of restrictions in the semiconductor sector could lay the groundwork for a more hawkish trade path into 2024.  The market impact FX: A split Congress and President Biden left to focus on international issues such as trade could end up proving mildly positive for the dollar. The Biden Administration’s stance on Chinese trade has not been as accommodative as many had expected back in 2020 and the recent tightening of restrictions in the semiconductor sector could lay the groundwork for a more hawkish trade path into 2024. Rates: Equity markets tend to prefer political malaise, as there tends to be less political meddling to fret about. Any material outperformance in the equity space can act to amplify the upside move in market rates in the month or so after the mid-term outcomes, while at the same time dampening the downside to market rates in the longer term, say looking through to the end of 2023. Market rates will still fall in 2023 (once the peak for the Funds rate is in), but not by as much if the Democrats were to hold both houses.   2. Republicans win the House and Senate: A springboard for Trump in 2024? 40% probability A bad performance for the Democrats will prompt questions as to whether Joe Biden is the best person to lead the Party into the next election. Senior Democrats could start jockeying for position with potential party infighting, further undermining the president’s ability to deliver policy. However, the lack of a credible alternative still favours Biden standing again and defeating any Democrat challenger. The president’s ability to pass any legislation is curtailed and limited to executive orders as outlined above. A Republican Senate would be able to block Biden’s picks for key positions in the judiciary and elsewhere. The fact that candidates backed by Donald Trump, and importantly that backed him, have won seats in both the House and Senate strengthens his position as the likely Republican nominee to challenge President Biden in 2024. The Republicans, buoyed by a convincing victory, are likely to open investigations into Hunter Biden and there could even be impeachment charges. Republicans making sweeping gains in the House and the Senate would likely be mirrored by major gains for Republicans in state positions that have influence over election processes and the certification of results. This could make the 2024 election even more contentious. As in the previous scenario, there will be little prospect of any meaningful fiscal support to counter the recession, putting the onus on the Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy aggressively in the second half of 2023 onwards. On sustainability, like the scenario of a split Congress, while the Inflation Reduction Act is here to stay, the implementation process would be a lot harder. Moreover, a fully Republican-controlled Congress would encourage the party to propose energy legislation that could advance their policy platform. For instance, there will likely be proposals to increase oil and gas activities to cement US energy dominance and seize profits from exports. There might also be attempts to streamline the federal energy project permitting process, which can substantially shorten the permitting time for not only renewable projects but also oil and gas projects. Some clean energy areas that will likely see Republican support include carbon capture and storage (CCS, as it can be applied to hard-to-abate sectors such as oil and gas), clean manufacturing, and key domestic energy supply chain strengthening. Congress would also likely support blue hydrogen produced from natural gas using CCS technologies over the short to medium term, as opposed to a more radical transition toward green hydrogen produced from renewables. Biden will likely be more aggressive (than scenario 1) in using his executive power to counter resistance from Congress on the climate issue. Republican control of both branches of Congress could initially weigh on the dollar via a hamstrung Administration unable to deliver fiscal support in a downturn. Closer to 2024, however, the dollar could be making a comeback were Republicans holding gains on the polls – given the experience with Donald Trump’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. The market impact FX: Republican control of both branches of Congress could initially weigh on the dollar via a hamstrung administration unable to deliver fiscal support in a downturn. Closer to 2024, however, the dollar could be making a comeback were Republicans to hold gains in the polls – given the experience with Donald Trump’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. Rates: For markets, this extreme version of political separation between the executive and congressional powers is one that will likely see politics lurch to petty squabbling, removing the risk for big macro-impactful outcomes. As a pre-emptive swing in the direction of a potential Trump administration, a pro-growth tint should result in higher bond yields than would otherwise be the case. Expect an amplification of the risk in yields to the upside, and then a more dramatic fall in market rates to the downside as we progress through 2023.   3. Democrats retain House and Senate: Biden gets a second chance. 10% probability This would be a major surprise given the current state of polling, but it would reinvigorate the Democratic party and Biden’s presidency. Legislation in support of abortion, same-sex marriage and voting rights would be high on the agenda. With recessionary fears intensifying, this outcome would be the one most likely to generate a fiscal response, presumably on spending support for impacted households, e.g. the reintroduction of a federal unemployment benefit. Looser fiscal policy may mean there is less pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates, especially if inflation proves to be stickier than we project. The Republican party’s failure to pick up enough seats would likely weaken the chances of Donald Trump being selected as the Republican candidate to challenge President Biden in 2024. The party may look to put momentum behind alternatives such as Ron DeSantis, former vice-president Mike Pence and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. Climate and clean energy legislation could be expanded, building on the Inflation Reduction Act (if they gain a Senate seat and remove the need to get backing from Kyrsten Sinema or Joe Manchin). For instance, Congress might propose bills to change excessive emissions from the power sector—a provision that was originally part of the Democrats’ legislative efforts but was removed by Manchin. Congress could even go a step further to pass a new law and give authorisation to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to put caps on power plant emissions. The EPA’s authority to do so was previously rescinded by a recent Supreme Court decision. Finally, the Biden administration could be expected to set up more regulation measures to curb emissions. These include tougher rules to reduce methane emissions, as well as new vehicle emissions and efficiency standards. Surprise retention by the Democrats of both the House and the Senate could be seen as a dollar positive for 2023. The administration would have more power to meet a recession with a fiscal response. This would potentially make more difficult the Fed’s objective of bringing inflation back to 2%. The market impact FX: A surprise retention by the Democrats of both the House and the Senate could be seen as a dollar positive for 2023. The administration would have more power to meet a recession with a fiscal response. This would potentially make more difficult the Fed’s objective of bringing inflation back to 2%. Rates: Markets would perceive this as being the lower growth and heightened political meddling outcome, which would tend to present a downside risk for equity markets relative to the baseline. For bonds, one question is how inflation might be impacted, with risks that the elevation of climate-focused measures could result in higher inflation, at least in the short term. This could dominate the perception of a lower growth outlook, resulting in higher bond yields than otherwise would be the case (although they would still fall in 2023 once the cycle has turned). That said, there is also a route for bigger spending from a Democratic controlled administration, bolstering growth, and supply of bonds. That could in turn ultimately skew the risk towards higher market rates on a more medium term outlook. Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
There Are Risks That An Increase In The Price Of Oil May Provoke China To Limit The Export Of Diesel Fuel

The Biden Government Would Have To Increase Production Of Crude Oil Barrels

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 08.11.2022 10:00
The OPEC cartel's recent decision to cut oil production was met with a response from U.S. President Joe Biden, who called an emergency conference call on October 31 following the cartel's decision. To this, he announced significant steps to beat the price, describing the oil companies with the following words: "Their profits are a windfall of war – the windfall from the brutal conflict that’s ravaging Ukraine and hurting tens of millions of people around the globe" Situation in the US oil market Since President Biden's statement, the price of WTI crude oil (XTIUSD) on the markets has risen more than 16% to $92 per barrel. Recall, however, that the United States is currently the number one producer in the oil market. According to the latest data from the EIA (Energy Information Administration), production stands at 11.975 million barrels per day (11.9% of global output). These are levels from November 2019, when the price per barrel was in the neighbourhood of $55. Will Biden succeed in forcing companies to increase production? On Wednesday, we will learn the results of the change in oil inventories in the United States. Last week, they decreased by 3.115 million barrels (0.45 million barrels per day). If this trend continues, it  could  be assumed that the US government's actions have yielded the first results. However, the amount of inventories seems to be presented negatively. According to the EIA's data, they currently stand at 836.62 million barrels, down 29% from their July 2020 peak. If the current trend of inventory consumption continues, the stockpile would run out in 5 years; if it doubles, we could see shortages after just 2.5 years. Will OPEC lead to a global recession? According to data provided by OPEC, in Q3 2022 global supply was 100.63 million barrels per day, and the cartel itself, which consists of 13 countries mainly in the Middle East, amounted to 29.45 million barrels per day (28% of global output). Demand at the time was 99.33 million barrels per day. It is expected that demand may remain at a similar level. The cartel's announcement may indicate a desire to reduce production by more than 2 million barrels per day. This could create a shortage in the world market of about 2%, in which case it seems that we could expect price increases in this market. To cover the described shortfall, the Biden government would have to increase production by 16%, or increase supply to levels of about 14 million barrels per week. Both scenarios and their mixes may prove unlikely. Oil prices, and fuel prices at that, appear to have a significant impact on inflation. As a result, the U.S. presidential government may do all it can to limit the risk of further price increases. Information that could lead to a reduction in demand in the global market in recent days is a declaration by the Chinese government, which has reaffirmed its commitment to pursuing a zero-Covid policy. This could lead to a reduction in demand from one of the world's largest importers of the commodity. What does Wall Street think about the oil market? The EIA Institute gives a target price for 2023 in the vicinity of $95/bbl. However, a consensus of analysts reported by Trading Economics indicates a price of $108.71/bbl in 12 months. An additional perspective was indicated by UBS bank analyst Giovanni Staunovo on OPEC's production cuts: "The cut suggests that there is a desire to defend oil prices to stay above the level of $90 per barrel". Source: MT5, XTIUSD, Daily How to find CFDs on oil? At Conotoxia, you can choose from CFDs for commodities and precious metals. Wanting to find an XTIUSD CFD, for example, you just need to follow 4 simple steps: To access Trading Universe - a state-of-the-art center of financial, information, investment and social products and services with a single Smart account, register here. Click "Platforms" in the "Invest&Forex" section. Choose one of the accounts: demo or real. On the MT5 platform, search for the CFD of your choice and drag it to the chart window. Use the one-click trading option or open a new order with the right mouse button. Grzegorz Dróżdż, Junior Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Read more reviews and open a demo account at invest.conotoxia.com Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced, or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75,21% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Middle Distillates: Strong Market Support Expected

It seems that Biden-Xi meeting during the G-20 summit in Bali delivered us with more positive news than it was expected at first

ING Economics ING Economics 15.11.2022 10:56
Presidents Xi and Biden strike unexpectedly constructive tone at G-20 summit in Bali Source: shutterstock Macro outlook Global Markets: Perhaps the most unexpected development yesterday, was a surprisingly positive meeting between President Xi and President Biden at the G-20 summit in Bali. The two talked about Taiwan, where Biden noted that the US position on Taiwan and the "One China – two systems" stance, had not changed. That was helpful. For his part, President Xi openly spoke out against the use of nuclear weapons by Russia. That was also helpful. The meeting will be followed up by a visit by Secretary of State, Blinken, to visit senior Chinese officials later in the year. This was far more progress than we, or indeed most commentators had expected, and dominates what may otherwise turn out to have been a fairly irrelevant G-20 summit. That said, the feel-good factor that had been driving markets following the softer-than-expected October CPI release in the US evaporated on Monday. Stocks had been trading higher after a slightly weaker open, but tailed off sharply in late trading, leaving the S&P500 and NASDAQ down about a per cent. There had been more optimism in Asian bourses yesterday following the announcement of measures to reduce the impact of zero-Covid and to prop up the property sector. However, the CSI 300 finished only slightly higher on the day, while the Hang Seng Index put in a more solid 1.7% gain. Equity futures point to a turnaround today with US futures markets suggesting a positive open, while Chinese markets may open lower. Currencies haven’t done a lot. EURUSD is at 1.0317, not much changed from this time yesterday, the same goes for the AUD, though both the GBP and JPY have lost some ground. Asian FX had a mixed day yesterday. The KRW and INR both dropped back about half a per cent, while there was better news for the TWD and CNY. US Treasury yields pushed higher again, and really don’t seem to know which way to go. The 2Y yield is 5.7bp higher, while the 10Y is 4.1bp higher at 3.854%. Lael Brainard got in on the act talking about the Fed soon beginning to moderate the pace of tightening, though noting that they still had work to do. At least she didn't say they had "...a ways to go" which despite being ungrammatical is becoming quite a cliché.   G-7 Macro: Second-tier releases dominate the  G-7 Macro calendar today. UK labour market figures, Germany’s ZEW business survey and US PPI indices are not likely to provide much for markets to base directional trades on.   China: at 10.00 SGT/HKT today we have China’s October data dump, including industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment, residential property investment and the surveyed jobless rate. On balance, we don’t think the numbers will be particularly uplifting, in spite of the Golden Week holidays, which ought to have provided some support to retail spending.    Japan: 3Q22 GDP fell 0.3%QoQ, weaker than expectations for a 0.3% QoQ increase. This marks a sharp slowdown from the 0.9% QoQ increase registered for 2Q22. Private consumption grew 0.3%QoQ, down from 1.2% in 2Q22. But the biggest drag on growth came from net exports, which subtracted 0.7pp from the total GDP growth figure, while inventories nicked off a further 0.1pp. Private business investment was a bit stronger, rising 1.5%QoQ and contributing 0.2pp to overall growth, and public investment also added a further 0.1pp to overall GDP growth. Today’s weaker data add downside risk to our 2022 and 2023 GDP forecasts of 1.6% and 1.1% respectively. Indonesia:  Trade data for October is due for release today.  We expect another month of strong gains for imports and exports with the trade balance still likely in surplus.  Export growth however has slowed, which should translate to a less sizable trade surplus.  Record high trade surpluses have supported the IDR for most of 2022 but the gradual decline of this buffer suggests that a key support for the currency may be fading going into 2023.  India: Indian inflation came in at 6.77%YoY for October, which was marginally higher than had been forecast by the consensus (6.7%) but still a decent pull back from the September reading of 7.41%. Inflation will remain at about this level in November, before spiking higher again on base effects in January and February before moving lower again. So the RBI’s job isn’t over yet, even if they can probably take a more laid-back approach to rate hikes from here on. What to look out for: China activity data and G-20 Japan GDP and industrial production (15 November) Australia RBA minutes (15 November) China activity data (15 November) Indonesia trade balance (15 November) US empire manufacturing and PPI inflation (15 November) Fed's Williams, Harker Cook and Barr speak (15 November)   Japan core machine orders (16 November) Australia Westpac leading index and wage price index (16 November) US retail sales (16 November) Japan trade balance (17 November) Australia labor data (17 November) Singapore NODX (17 November) Malaysia trade (17 November) Bank Indonesia policy meeting (17 November) Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas policy meeting (17 November) US housing starts and initial jobless claims (17 November) Japan CPI inflation (18 November) US existing home sales (18 November) Read this article on THINK TagsEmerging Markets Asia Pacific Asia Markets Asia Economics Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Oanda Podcast: US Jobs Report, SVB Financial Fallout And More

$1 Trillion As Part Of Barclays Efforts To Accelerate The Transition To A Low-Carbon Economy

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 14.12.2022 10:31
The topic of environmental protection has grown significantly this year. There is more and more information that companies and institutions are doing to move to A Low-Carbon Economy. The subject of same-sex marriages raises a lot of controversy, but there are countries where special laws are signed to protect them. Now the United States has joined these countries. In this article: UK investment bank Buying investors and its challenges The Respect for Marriage Act Taxes UK investment bank Earlier this year, UN climate scientists warned that the world was running out of time to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Banks' climate efforts are increasingly in the spotlight, with activists and politicians expressing concern that the industry is not doing enough to manage the risk of global warming. UK investment bank Barclays is addressing this and has increased its sustainability and transition finance targets to $1 trillion as part of its efforts to accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy. A new Barclays goal that will fund anything that can help protect the environment. Thus, the bank becomes one of the pro-ecological institutions, encouraging customers to use its services. Exclusive: Barclays turbocharges 2030 sustainable finance target to $1 trln https://t.co/6NUb65INrv pic.twitter.com/rC31srQ5kv — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) December 14, 2022 Buying investors face operational challenges Changes are happening faster than we think, especially in the area of financial markets. Buying investors face operational challenges related to changes resulting from standardization, the potential of cloud resources and natural language processing, scalability and diversification of asset classes. Like everything that changes, it raises many questions, especially those about threats. Matthew York, Buy-Side Product Strategy at Bloomberg, shared what he considers to be the biggest concerns stemming from these issues. Buy-side investors are facing operational challenges from changes driven by standardization, the potential of cloud resources and natural language processing, scalability and diversification of asset classes.https://t.co/aGKJmGHRrX — Bloomberg Terminal (@TheTerminal) December 13, 2022 Read next:  The Japanese Yen Stabilized Below 138 To The US Dollar| FXMAG.COM President Joe Biden signed the bipartisan Marriage Respect Act President Joe Biden signed the bipartisan Marriage Respect Act on Tuesday, codifying legal protections for same-sex and interracial couples. The bill passed with bipartisan support in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Biden's views, like many Americans, shifted towards supporting same-sex marriage throughout his life. Earlier, during his long tenure in the Senate, Biden voted for a bill that would limit the advancement of LGBTQ rights. The Marriage Respect Act does not guarantee the right to marry. It specifies that states must recognize same-sex marriages across state lines and that same-sex couples have the same federal benefits as any married couple. Biden signs bill to protect same-sex and interracial marriageshttps://t.co/v1qJtHLGkg — CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) December 13, 2022 Taxes Taxes are everyone's bane. The higher they are, the more you look for a way to minimize these costs. In most cases, gift law is so complicated that it makes the taxpayer dizzy. We know there's no escaping taxes, but how do tax rates and tax brackets affect how much income tax you pay? Tax rates and brackets can be a source of confusion for many people. Check out this video for information on how to calculate your effective tax rate. https://t.co/4eoZeMAShb — Charles Schwab Corp (@CharlesSchwab) December 13, 2022
Joe Biden is preparing to bring 26 million barrels of oil to the market from the strategic reserve

Joe Biden is preparing to bring 26 million barrels of oil to the market from the strategic reserve

Michalis Efthymiou Michalis Efthymiou 15.02.2023 14:34
Crude Oil’s price declined during this morning’s 2 sessions as investors remain concerned about yesterday’s inflation data. An expensive US Dollar and high-interest rates are known to pressure the price of Crude Oil. High-interest rates are known to slow economic growth, which tends to result in lower demand for fuel. An expensive US Dollar is also known to pressure prices as foreign buyers have to pay more for the same product. Will this trigger lower demand? Read next: Lower UK inflation can turn out to be helpful to UK economy and FTSE100 as it may allow a softer monetary policy to proceed | FXMAG.COM Well, it is also important that traders consider the effect supply can have on the pricing. The US President is preparing to bring 26 million barrels of oil to the market from the strategic reserve. This would bring the reserve to its lowest level since 1983. Regarding technical analysis, analysts note that speculators should be cautious about the price rejection level. The rejection level formed at $77.67 after the CPI announcement. Crude Oil 30-Minutes on February 15th Read next: Fed expectations have changed a bit. A record-breaking Federal Fund Rate can affect stock market| FXMAG.COM Summary: The US Dollar increases in value due to high inflation for January 2022. The US Dollar increased to 103.60 and has increased by 0.36%. US inflation is down from 6.5% to 6.4% but is unlikely to satisfy the Federal Reserve. UK Inflation drops more than expected reaching a 4-month low. UK inflation reads 10.1%. Crude oil declines are the US Dollar increases in value and investors expect a stronger hike from the Fed.
US Inflation Eases, but Fed's Influence Remains Crucial

US President Joe Biden may propose changes to crypto taxation rules

FXStreet News FXStreet News 09.03.2023 16:04
US President Joe Biden is expected to release a new budget plan on March 9, proposing changes to crypto taxation The new crypto tax policy is projected to raise $24 billion, targeting wash trading in cryptocurrencies. Reports have suggested that Non-fungible tokens could be taxable and anyone who has dealt with digital assets must report their activities to the IRS. US President Joe Biden is set to unveil the new budget plan on Thursday, March 9. Reports have suggested that crypto market participants can expect changes to crypto taxation, targeted towards wash trading and taxing collectibles, digital art. US President Joe Biden could propose changes to crypto taxation in budget plan US President Joe Biden is set to target wash trading and this plan could directly affect crypto trading. According to a Wall Street Journal report President Biden will propose changes to crypto taxation rules. Currently, rules against wash trading apply to stock and bond trading, those rules are not being applied to crypto trading. As of now investors can sell certain investments and accept a tax-deductible loss before reinvesting. This is considered an illegal practice in stocks and bond trading and the government wants to prevent it in crypto trading as well. The new crypto tax policy could raise $24 billion as part of Biden’s broader 2024 budget plan. There is a likelihood that Biden’s proposal gets opposed by the Republican party. Tax policy changes that affect crypto investors in the US While Biden’s changes are not guaranteed to come into effect, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) recently expanded the scope of crypto tax rules in February 2023. These changes require anyone who has dealt in cryptocurrencies to report their activities. Another report suggests that Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) could be taxed. According to a recent third-party survey by CoinLedger, only 58% of the survey participants have included cryptocurrency on their tax reports in 2022. What traders and analysts think about Biden’s proposed crypto tax rules? DivXMan, crypto trader and YouTuber is bullish on the updated crypto tax rules. The crypto trader believes the updated rules could incentivize holding Bitcoin in the long term. DivXMan told FXStreet, "I think the proposing changes to rule against wash trading is a smart move. This is normally done to show taxable losses where many investors intend to rebuy and continue to hold the asset. It’s also more frequently done by much wealthier and savvier investors than your normal retail investors. Even if this adds a minor amount of stability to markets I see it as win for retail and one of the few steps I’ve seen in the right direction for regulation."
Plugwalk Joe" Found Guilty: Hacker Convicted for Hijacking Twitter Accounts of Prominent Figures and Attempted Fraud

Plugwalk Joe" Found Guilty: Hacker Convicted for Hijacking Twitter Accounts of Prominent Figures and Attempted Fraud

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 28.06.2023 09:20
Joseph O'Connor, also known as "Plugwalk Joe", was found guilty of running an advanced hacking campaign that involved hijacking the Twitter accounts of famous people and trying to defraud their followers. Barack Obama, Joe Biden and Elon Musk suffered in the case, for example, through whose accounts cryptocurrencies were extorted.   The perpetrator was sentenced to five years in prison. O'Connor was extradited from Spain to the US in April and pleaded guilty to the charges in May.   These included mass hacking of social media accounts, cybercrime and cyberstalking, among others. He and his associates carried out the attack in early 2020. They contacted some Twitter employees by phone and manipulated them into obtaining login details. This gave the hackers access to the website's internal administration tools.     They used this access to post a Bitcoin scam on over 130 celebrity Twitter accounts. According to the Department of Justice (DoJ), they also sold access to some accounts to third parties. In a separate case, O'Connor and his colleagues successfully used SIM swap attacks. This time to compromise three directors of a cryptocurrency company based in Manhattan.   They used the access they gained to divert digital funds currently worth $1.6 million from their wallets. Technical Market Outlook: The ETH/USD pair has been consolidating the recent gains in a narrow zone with an occasional dip to the level of $1,837 that now will act as the intraday technical support.   The bulls failed to break above the technical resistance located at the level of $1,930 and reversed lower again.The momentum turned into weak and negative after the failed breakout attempt, so now the short-term outlook is looking more bearish. The short-term technical support is seen at the level of $1,837 and $1,830 (100 MA).  

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