Japanese yen

The Japanese yen has edged lower on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 147.62, up 0.08%.

US GDP roars with 3.3% gain

The US economy continues to surprise with stronger-than-expected data. On Wednesday, the services and manufacturing PMIs both accelerated and beat the estimates, followed by first-estimate GDP for the fourth quarter earlier today.

The economy sparkled with an expansion of 3.3% q/q, blowing past the consensus estimate of 2.0%. This follows the blowout gain of 4.9% in the third quarter. Consumer spending remained strong at 2.8%, compared to 3.1% in the third quarter. The US economy expanded in 2023 at 2.5% y/y, up from 1.9% in 2022. The US dollar’s reaction to the positive GDP report has been muted.

There were concerns earlier this year that the economy might tip into a recession, as the Fed continued to raise interest rates to beat down inflation. However, solid consumer spending and a resilient labour market have boosted economic growth

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CAD/JPY could follow GBP/JPY lead and break higher

Fawad Razaqzada Fawad Razaqzada 05.02.2021 09:02
Thanks to ongoing risk-on and reflationary trades, stock and crude oil markets extended their gains on Thursday, while safe-haven Japanese yen and gold sold off. The USD/JPY was among the best USD pairs, while other yen pairs also rallied – most notably, the GBP/JPY thanks to a hawkish Bank of England. Investors are now looking ahead to the publication of US jobs report on Friday. But we will also have the Canadian employment report released at the same time. So, the USD/CAD could be an interesting pair to watch when the reports are released. However, with the JPY selling off, I am keen to keep the focus on the yen pairs for now. Among them, the CAD/JPY is the next one to watch for a possible breakout, with the CAD finding good support from ongoing crude oil rally. A potentially stronger-than-expected Canadian employment report on Friday could be the trigger for a bigger rally. Before we discuss the CAD/JPY, lets discuss the GBP/JPY first. The latter staged a nice rally on Thursday rally from the support area shown on the chart after the Bank of England was less dovish than expected, causing the pound to rally across the board on Thursday. But with Brexit being avoided last month and the UK vaccinating more than 10 million people, the path of least resistance was always going to be to the upside for the GBP/JPY. So, I think more gains will follow for this pair. Luckily, the ledges in the private group got on board the rally before it took off as you can see from the before/after charts: Source: TradingCandles.com and TradingView.comSource: TradingCandles.com and TradingView.com Source: TradingCandles.com and TradingView.com I have shared the GBP/JPY trade setup that I posed to the private group, because the CAD/JPY is showing a similar setup as you will see below. The CAD/JPY has in fact started to move above the key resistance zone in the 81.50-82.10 range – and area which is now potentially going to be support: Source: TradingCandles.com and TradingView.com From here, the CAD/JPY could rise towards the point of origin of the initial breakdown in February 2020, at around 82.70 to 83.00, before potentially taking out the 2020 high at 84.75 next. It is important therefore that the bulls manage to defend the above support area for price to maintain its bullish bias and attract fresh buying as rates make higher highs and higher lows. The private group has been informed exactly how we are going to trade this setup.
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Intraday Market Analysis – Sterling Tests Key Resistance

John Benjamin John Benjamin 19.03.2021 08:18
GBPUSD builds bullish momentumThe Bank of England followed the US Fed’s dovish footstep on Thursday in an attempt to rein in inflation expectations. This has led the pound to hit a wall once again at the psychological level of 1.4000.Those who believe in the third time’s a charm may find support at 1.3850 after the pair made a series of higher lows.A bullish breakout could push the price towards 1.4150 or even end the three-week-long consolidation. A drop below 1.3800, however, may dent the upward bias from a medium-term perspective.USDJPY in rectangle consolidationRally in risk assets come at the expense of a safer Japanese yen. Though the BoJ would sit on its hands and find no issue in a weaker currency as global trade makes a comeback.The US dollar has so far found support above the previous lows around 108.30. The RSI has dropped back into neutral territory from an overbought situation, which may prompt more buyers to get in the game.A breakout above the horizontal range (109.30) could extend the rally to last June’s high at 109.80.XAGUSD bounces off ascending trendlineA softer US dollar is exactly what commodity traders have been waiting for. Silver is looking to safeguard its gains after the latest pop above the resistance at 26.40.An over-extended RSI was followed up by profit-taking in the supply area. However, a nascent rising trendline hints at buyers’ strong interest in bidding up the price.A reversal is in the making if the price action succeeds in staying above 25.80.A bullish breakout above 26.90 could trigger a broader rally into the 28s.
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Intraday Market Analysis – Double Top Breakout

John Benjamin John Benjamin 26.03.2021 07:03
USDCHF rallies above double top The US dollar continues its advance against the Swiss franc after solid GDP growth last month. The buck’s previous bounce from the 20-day moving average (0.9220) and then a close above 0.9300 have put the uptrend back on track. The bullish breakout above the double top at 0.9375 would trigger a new round of rally. An overbought RSI may lead to a brief pullback where the pair would be looking to gain momentum. If that happens the former resistance area around 0.9350 would be the support to monitor. USDNOK rises along the trendline Sliding oil prices have forced the crude-dependent Norwegian krone to take a backseat. The dollar has been grinding up along a week-long rising trendline. Lifting offers around the previous top at 8.6700 has confirmed that buyers are still in control. An RSI in the neutrality area suggests there is still room on the upside and a bullish breakout above 8.6800 could lead to a broader rally. In the case of a pullback, the demand zone between 8.5400 and 8.5800 could see strong bids from trend followers. EURJPY bounces off major support Tensions around the EU’s vaccine supply have put a strain on the euro as traders rush into a safer Japanese yen. The pair has broken below the 30-day moving average, a bearish movement that could trigger an extended consolidation if not an outright reversal. On the hourly chart, after being oversold, price action is making an attempt to rebound from 128.20. 129.20 is a key area of congestion as it coincides with the falling trendline. Needless to say, traders would try to sell into strength as the pair recovers.
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Intraday Market Analysis – From Support To Resistance

John Benjamin John Benjamin 28.04.2021 08:14
USDJPY rises to major resistanceThe Japanese yen stayed muted after the Bank of Japan revised down its inflation forecasts.The bearish MA cross on the daily time frame may weigh on the US dollar as it recovers towards 108.90, a previous daily support now turned into a resistance.The rally above 108.20 in the short-term has prompted some sellers to cover reducing the downward pressure. A close above 108.50 would help gain momentum.As the RSI shows an overbought situation, 108.20 would be the first support In case of a retracement.EURGBP tests triple topEuro buyers are encouraged by news of easing of restrictions in Italy and France. The pair has risen back to the major support area around 0.8720-0.8730.After the failure of the first test, strong bids have supported the price to form a triple top. Would the third time be the charm?A neutral RSI gives buyers enough space to play around. A breakout above 0.8730 would confirm the bullish MA cross on the daily chart and trigger a rally towards 0.88s.On the downside, a drop below 0.8670 may drive the correction down to 0.8630.GER 30 consolidates near a record highThe German index stagnates as the earnings season kicks off in Europe. Last week’s sell-off below 15180 was a sign that buyers took profit after the index made a series of record new highs.On the daily chart, the uptrend is so far intact as the price action hovers above the 20-day moving average. 15410 is the immediate resistance and a bullish breakout would resume the upward movement.However, a breach below 15090 could dent the short-term optimism and trigger a new round of sell-off to 14800.
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Intraday Market Analysis – Psychological Level

John Benjamin John Benjamin 03.05.2021 08:52
EURUSD retraces to major supportThe euro pulled back after the block’s CPI dropped to 0.8% in April. Though the pair maintains its bullish trajectory from the daily chart’s perspective, a healthy pullback seems necessary for buyers to catch up after it rose back above the last leg of sell-off (1.1990).With an RSI deep in the oversold area, the psychological level of 1.2000 near the 20-day moving average would be a critical level to test buyers’ confidence.The rally would only resume if the euro climbs back to the previous high at 1.2150,GBPJPY exhibits bearish MA crossThe Japanese yen gained traction after the unemployment rate fell to 2.6% in March. The pound falls back in search of the next support as the yen recoups losses across the board.The RSI’s double top in the overbought area was an indication of exhaustion past the key resistance at 152.00. A breakout below 151.00 would confirm the bearish MA cross.The next level to find potential buying interest would be around 150.10. On the upside, the long side will need to lift 152.10 to resume the U-turn.SPX 500 tests resistance-turned-supportThe S&P 500 consolidates recent gains as rebounding corporate profits raise investors’ risk appetite. Buyers are striving to hold above 4180 after they cleared the former supply zone.A rally above 4219 would open the path to a new high above 4300. However, a slide below could dent the short-term fever and trigger profit-taking.4140, the lower band of the previous consolidation range would be a major support to monitor.Its breach could lead to a deeper correction towards the rising trendline (4050) on the daily chart.
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Intraday Market Analysis – DAX Back To Peak

John Benjamin John Benjamin 18.05.2021 07:39
GER 30 retests record highGermany’s DAX 30 claws back previous losses as the economic outlook brightens.On the daily timeframe, the latest sideways action has allowed the RSI to drop back to the neutrality area, which is good news for a breakneck bull market.On the hourly chart, strong momentum above the last leg of the sell-off indicates traders’ conviction in buying the dip.April’s high at 15520 is the main obstacle and a breakout could push the index to a new record high. 15220 is the closest support in case of a pullback.USDJPY retraces for supportThe Japanese yen stayed muted as the country’s GDP contracted slightly more than expected in Q1.The surge above 109.70 is an indication that buyers have regained control after a two-week-long consolidation. The US dollar is pulling back after the RSI overshot to 80.Buying interests are likely to be found at the demand area between 108.65 and 108.90. Further down, a drop to 108.30 may extend the consolidation.On the upside, bulls could trigger a broader rally if they succeed in clearing the resistance at 109.70.EURGBP recovers after RSI divergenceThe euro inched higher after Eurozone bond yields climbed to multi-month highs. The pair is still in a recovery phase following last week’s sell-off.The RSI divergence has signaled a deceleration in the bearish momentum. The breakout above 0.8610 has prompted more sellers to take profit, lifting pressure on the single currency.0.8640, support turned into resistance is the next hurdle. A bullish breakout could send the price to 0.8680. 0.8560-90 is the demand area if the pair needs to find bids.
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Intraday Market Analysis – USD Needs Further Support

John Benjamin John Benjamin 31.05.2021 10:28
USDCHF rebounds from daily supportThe US dollar popped up after April’s core personal consumption expenditure rose by 3.1%.The pair has bounced off 0.8930, a key support on the daily chart. Momentum above the psychological level of 0.9000 is a sign of strong conviction from the buy-side. A break above 0.9045 may reverse the bearish sentiment and open the door to the daily resistance at 0.9090.As the RSI has overshot above 80, buyers might show caution in chasing after green candles. 0.8970 would be the first support in case of a pullback.EURGBP struggles to find supportSterling climbed after the BoE commented it may look at discussing rate hikes if the economy continues to improve.The euro has given up all recent gains after the pair broke below 0.8620. This is a reminder that the pair is still in a wide consolidation range between the base of the rebound (0.8480) and the key daily resistance (0.8720).The RSI is rising back from the oversold territory. 0.8560 may turn out to be temporary support if sentiment deteriorates. A pullback is likely to meet stiff selling pressure near 0.8640.CADJPY surges towards a 3-year highThe Japanese yen is still licking its wounds after both CPI and the unemployment rate fell short of expectations.The loonie has been trading in the 89.60-90.70 range to consolidate its gains. Last week’s pop caught the short side by surprise.Stop-losses and momentum buying exacerbated the rally. This confirmed that buyers are still in control of the price action despite recent attempts to break lower.There is a chance of a brief retracement towards 90.30 to cool off the RSI. January 2018’s high at 91.50 would be the next target.
Intraday Market Analysis – AUD Attempts Reversal

Intraday Market Analysis – AUD Attempts Reversal

John Benjamin John Benjamin 08.06.2021 16:02
AUDUSD rallies from key demand zone The Australian dollar claws back losses against a weaker dollar after a mixed bag of US jobs data. The pair saw a strong rebound off the demand zone (0.7650) from the daily chart. The initial surge above 0.7740 is a sign of commitment from the buy-side. As the short side rushes to cover their positions, we can expect more momentum. The zone around 0.7730 has turned into a support. After the RSI drops from its overbought condition, a break above 0.7770 could trigger a runaway rally towards 0.7850. USDJPY tests rising trendline The Japanese yen advanced after a slower-than-expected GDP contraction in Q1. The US dollar has come under pressure in the supply zone near 110.30, the origin of April’s sell-off. The RSI’s repeated rise into the overbought area is an indication of exhaustion in the upward momentum. The pair is now testing the trendline from April which coincides with the psychological level of 109.00. As the RSI recovers into the neutral area, we could expect strong buying interest. 109.80 is an intermediate resistance on the way up. UK 100 holds firm after breakout The FTSE 100 consolidates its gains as investors await confirmation of the June 21 reopening. Price action has found support at 7010 after it broke above the flag consolidation. This is a sign of a bullish continuation now that the sellers could be out of action. 7115 is the immediate resistance and its clearance would lead to the previous peak at 7165. A bullish close above this critical level would lift the index to 7200. On the downside, a drop below 7040 may extend the consolidation towards the psychological level of 7000.
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Intraday Market Analysis – USD Hits Resistance

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 29.06.2021 09:58
USDJPY struggles to clear offersThe Japanese yen bounces back after a rise in April’s retail trade figure, while the US dollar struggles to consolidate its gains above the psychological level of 111.00.Yesterday’s bullish momentum above 110.85 has faded. This suggests a lack of commitment from the buy-side. Short-term price action could become vulnerable if 110.40 fails to hold. The pair may retest 109.80 should that happen.Otherwise, by lifting offers around 111.10 the bulls could expect a runaway rally towards February 2020’s peak at 112.00.AUDUSD seeks supportThe Australian dollar pulls back as risk appetite abates earlier this week. The pair has met resistance at 0.7610, previously a demand zone now turned into a supply zone.Sentiment remains mixed after the mid-June sell-off. Indeed, buyers are likely to test the water before committing themselves.The Aussie may seek support at 0.7540. Further down, 0.7500 is a critical level to keep the rebound relevant. On the upside, a break above 0.7610 may attract momentum players and open the path towards 0.7700.GER 30 awaits breakoutThe Dax 30 inches up, thanks to the support from last week’s recovery momentum.Price action has spent the past week consolidating gains after a V-shaped rebound. The narrowing range indicates stiff pressure from both sides and a breakout would dictate the direction for the days to come.The bulls are striving to push back to the previous high at 15800. Then the psychological all-time high of 16000 would be within reach. On the downside, a drop below 15500 would prolong the correction to 15400.
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Bank of America: GBP will rise in 2021

Kseniya Medik Kseniya Medik 05.07.2021 11:50
The British pound has advanced in the first half of the year, especially against the euro. Will this trend sustain in the second part of 2021?Bank of America has published its mid-year forecast on the GBP. The bank believes the pound has more room to rally up further. The reasons are the UK's successful vaccination rollout and the Bank of England hawkish pivot. The BoE is likely to raise interest rates in 2022, ahead of many G10 peers.The group of Ten (G10) is made up of eleven (yes, it’s strange) industrial countries (Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States) that meet on annual basis to consult each other and cooperate on international financial matters.According to Bank of America, the British pound will mostly outperform the Japanese yen and the Swiss Franc - both currencies with ultra-low interest rates.Besides, the UK PM Boris Johnson claimed that he would cancel the coronavirus restrictions, which would be positive for both the pound and UK stocks. Many global investors consider that the UK stocks are undervalued, suggesting the potential growth. By the way, you can trade not only US stocks, but also UK stocks with FBS. Today the US markets are closed due to the Independence Day holiday. Thus, it’s the perfect time to pay attention to the UK stocks.Technical outlookEUR/GBP has bounced off the 50- and 100-day moving averages and reversed to the downside. The move below the low of June 24 at 0.8530 will press the pair down to the next round number at 0.8500. The pair is likely to move down in the mid and long term. Still, if some fundamentals shock the markets and the pair breaks above the upper trend line at 0.8600, it may jump to 0.8650.Download the FBS Trader app to trade anytime anywhere! For personal computer or laptop, use MetaTrader 5!
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Intraday Market Analysis – NASDAQ Holds Despite Whipsaw

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 09.07.2021 10:30
NAS 100 bounces off trendlineThe Nasdaq index whipsaws as investors fear that the economic recovery may stall.Sentiment remains upbeat as the composite rebounds from a seven-week-long rising trendline. This congestion area includes the former resistance at 14560 which has turned into key support.Trend followers were quick to see the oversold RSI as an opportunity to double down on the bullish bandwagon.14830 has now become a hurdle and a bullish breakout could lead the index to the historic high at 15000.USDCHF falls from daily resistanceThe Swiss franc shot up as markets grew weary of the Delta variant spread. Whereas, the US dollar has stumbled on the supply area around 0.9275 from the daily timeframe.Last Friday’s attempts below 0.9200 have shown weakness in the upward impetus. Following a feeble rebound, the dollar’s clean-cut through said support confirms the bearish turn. An oversold RSI may cause a limited rebound.Once below 0.9140, the greenback could be vulnerable to an extended sell-off towards 0.9080.EURJPY slips below psychological supportThe Japanese yen rallies amid surging demand for safe-haven currencies.The break below the psychological level of 130.00 has invalidated the rebound in late June. Sellers are still in control of the action after the bearish MA cross.The euro is now hovering near the critical support (129.60) on the daily chart. A bearish breakout could push the pair towards 128.90.In the meantime, an oversold RSI may prompt early bulls to test the water. The base of the latest sell-off at 131.00 is a major resistance ahead.
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Rebound Gains Traction

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Rebound Gains Traction

John Benjamin John Benjamin 19.07.2021 08:43
USDJPY challenges key resistanceThe Japanese yen weakened after the BoJ slashed growth forecasts due to pandemic curbs.The greenback has met buying interest at 109.70, a major demand zone on the daily timeframe. A successful rebound would safeguard the rally in the medium term.An oversold RSI has prompted the bulls to stake in for a bargain as it recovers to the neutral area.The support-turned-resistance at 110.50 is the first hurdle, its clearance could propel the price to the psychological level of 111.00.USDCHF bounces towards daily supply areaThe US dollar claws back losses as June’s retail sales beat the consensus. The pair has found support on the 30-day moving average (0.9120).The bullish breakout above 0.9195 indicates that buyers may have turned the tide in their favor. The bullish MA cross also points to an acceleration to the upside.0.9260 is a major resistance ahead. Its breach would resume the rally and open the path towards April’s peak at 0.9450. 0.9170 is the immediate support in case of a pullback.EURAUD rallies to previous highThe euro rises as the eurozone’s CPI meets the market’s expectation in June. Sentiment remains bullish after the price broke above the major resistance (1.5940) from the daily chart.The latest correction could be mere accumulation to lay the groundwork for the next round of rallies. The pair bounced back from the 50% (1.5790) Fibonacci retracement level. A bullish breakout above 1.5980 would trigger a runaway rally towards 1.6100.On the downside, 1.5870 is the first support to let the RSI cool down.
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Intraday Market Analysis – USD Sees Few Bids

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 30.07.2021 09:00
USDJPY tests key supportThe Japanese yen finds support as June’s unemployment rate fell below 3%.A bearish MA cross on the daily chart is likely to cloud buyers’ mood. The pair has met stiff selling pressure near 110.60.The FOMC whipsaw was a sign that sellers still retain control since the downturn started earlier this month. 109.40 is a key support and its breach would invalidate last week’s rebound. Sellers would then be eager to push below 109.00.On the upside, a bounce will need to clear 110.20 to make the mood turn around.USDCHF in a deeper correctionThe US dollar tumbled as US GDP growth in Q2 came out below market expectation.The breakout below 0.9120 was a confirmation that the bears have gained the upper hand following a three-week-long consolidation. Bearish sentiment accrued as momentum traders jumped in aggressively.The price is heading towards the psychological level of 0.9000, right above the critical support (0.8930) on the daily chart.An oversold RSI may cause a limited rebound which is likely to be capped by 0.9165.US 30 breaks to new highsThe Dow Jones index found support from the prospect of continuous stimulus in the US.The index consolidated its gains after it rallied above the peak at 35100. 34800 is a fresh support as buyers have a stake in after the breakout confirmation.US indices lately have been exhibiting a volatility pattern in which a sharp drop is followed by strong bidding.While sentiment remains generally positive, a deeper pullback here may test 34500. As the rally resumes, 35500 would be the next target.
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Intraday Market Analysis – USD Breaks Lower

John Benjamin John Benjamin 03.08.2021 08:26
USDJPY struggles for supportThe Japanese yen strengthened on better-than-expected Tokyo CPI in July. The bearish MA cross from the daily timeframe may have put the bulls on the defensive.The dollar’s struggle to keep its head above 109.60 suggests a lack of commitment from the long side. 109.90 has established itself as a fresh resistance.The RSI has risen back into the neutrality area, giving sellers room to push lower. 109.00 is the closest support and its breach could deepen the correction for the days to come.USDCHF falls towards daily supportThe US dollar inches lower as July’s ISM Manufacturing PMI fell short of expectations.The pair dipped further in the bearish territory after 0.9070 failed to keep the price afloat. An oversold RSI has helped the greenback to claw back some lost ground.However, the rebound may be short-lived as sentiment favors selling into strength. 0.9090 is the hurdle where sellers could be waiting to jump in at a better price0.8980 at the origin of the June rebound is a critical demand zone on the daily chart.NAS 100 extends consolidationUS stock markets remain supported thanks to strength among corporate earnings.The Nasdaq 100 has slowly ground its way up from the 20-day moving average. The price action has once again bounced off the demand zone above 14800.As the index recoups its previous losses, there is high hope that the rally could resume to new all-time highs. For this, the bulls will need to lift offers around the peak at 15140. Failing that, a pullback towards 14550, a key level on the daily chart would be the path of least resistance.
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Intraday Market Analysis – Dax Sees Bullish Acceleration

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 16.08.2021 10:27
GER 30 rises along trendlineThe Dax 30 soared to a new all-time high backed by a strong earnings season.The rally is in full swing after a break above the previous peak at 15810. The index is climbing along a rising trendline since late July. The price has gone vertical and suggests an acceleration in the bullish momentum.A repeatedly overbought RSI indicates an overextension. A limited pullback would help the bulls catch their breath.15850 on the trendline is a key support should this happen. Then a rebound would lift the index to 16100.USDJPY seeks supportThe Japanese yen strengthens on upbeat GDP growth in Q2.The pair is looking for support after a close above the daily resistance at 110.60. This is an indication that the medium-term rally may resume.A pullback is necessary however after the RSI showed exhaustion. Analysts can expect buying interest at the psychological level of 109.00. An oversold RSI would make this a congestion area and prompt the bulls to buy the dip.109.70 is a fresh resistance ahead. A bullish breakout would lead to 110.50.XAGUSD bounces above resistanceSilver claws back losses as US Treasury yields remain flat on mixed US data.Price action has so far found support above the psychological level of 23.00.The RSI has risen back to the neutral area as traders bought the dip in an attempt to reverse course. However, the bearish mood would prevail as long as the metal stays under 24.35, the last leg of sell-off.A rebound may meet strong selling interest from trend followers. A fall below the said support would send the price to November’s low at 22.00.
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Intraday Market Analysis – USD Awaits Catalyst-Breakout

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 27.08.2021 09:34
USDJPY about to test resistanceThe Japanese yen weakened after a lower-than-expected Tokyo CPI in August. The US dollar is grinding its way back up after the mid-month correction.A double test at 109.50 suggests strong buying interest. Layers of support indicate buyers’ willingness to pay up, the freshest one is at 109.90.Momentum has slowed down as the price approaches the major supply area around 110.40. A bullish breakout would tip the balance to the long side again and open up the path to the psychological price tag of 111.00.AUDUSD rebound cools offThe Australian dollar fell back after a drop in July’s retail sales numbers.A close above 0.7270 has forced sellers to cover their bets. The pair is recovering towards the 30-day moving average on the daily chart which coincides with the support-turned-resistance at 0.7320.However, the rebound is likely to be choppy. After a double top in the overbought area, the RSI’s divergence indicates a loss in the rebound momentum.A drop below 0.7235 would lead to a deeper correction to 0.7150.US 30 recoups previous lossesThe Dow Jones index pulls back as traders await updates from the Fed’s Jackson Hole meeting.Price action’s V-shaped rebound is typical of buying-the-dips from the demand zone near 34600. By lifting offers around 35450 the bulls have signaled their commitment to maintaining the uptrend in the medium-term.The index is seeking support after it erased losses from last week. 35200 is the first support as the RSI dips into the oversold territory.A break above the peak at 35600 would extend the rally to new all-time highs.
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Intraday Market Analysis – Dow Jones Tests All-Time High

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 31.08.2021 09:46
US 30 challenges peakThe Dow Jones 30 index holds near its historic high on upbeat investor sentiment.The break above 35330 has signaled the bulls’ commitment to maintain the upward bias, while 35200 is fresh support.An oversold RSI has attracted the buying-the-dips mentality.Price action has recouped the most recent losses and is now testing the peak at 35630. A bullish breakout may extend the rally towards the milestone at 36000. A deeper pullback would lead to the critical floor at 34700.USDJPY awaits breakoutThe Japanese yen inched higher after a drop in July’s unemployment rate. The pair is in a narrowing trading range following its bounce off the demand zone at 109.10.Sentiment remains optimistic as long as price action stays above this critical level.However, the bulls may encounter selling pressure at 110.50 from the August sell-off. A bullish breakout would attract momentum buyers and extend the rally to above 111.00.On the downside, a break below 109.50 would lead to a retest of buyers’ resolve.NZDUSD tests major resistanceThe US dollar continues to weaken across the board from the post-Jackson Hole hangover. The Kiwi is at a crossroads as it climbs back to the daily resistance at 0.7050, the origin of the previous sell-off.A bullish breakout would prompt sellers to cover their bets and lay the groundwork for a reversal.0.7100 would be the next target. However, the RSI’s multiple ventures into the overbought territory may temper the bullish fever.The base of the momentum at 0.6940 is the key to keeping the recovery valid.
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Intraday Market Analysis – USD Tests Supply Area

John Benjamin John Benjamin 28.09.2021 08:45
EURUSD tests major supportThe US dollar found support from better-than-expected durable goods orders.The pair gave up all its gains from the rally in late August. This indicates an erosion in the bullish sentiment.The euro’s latest rebound has been capped by 1.1750. Sellers are pushing towards the critical floor at 1.1665. And its breach would lead to the last line of defense at 1.1600 from November last year.An oversold RSI may bring in some buying interest, though buyers will need to lift 1.1820 before they could hope for a bullish reversal.EURJPY seeks supportThe Japanese yen weakened after the BOJ warned of a recovery delay in its meeting minutes. The euro has capitalized on its rebound from the daily demand zone around 128.00.A close above 129.65 may have tipped the balance to the upside. A break above 130.10 would pave the way to the key resistance of 130.70 on the daily chart.However, a descending RSI from the overbought zone is in contrast with the price’s higher highs. There is a risk of a pullback as the momentum slows down. 129.40 is the immediate support.SPX 500 struggles to reboundThe S&P 500 halted its advance as the Fed’s taper is closing in.The V-shaped recovery has met selling interest at 4482, the origin of a recent sell-off. A diverging RSI suggests a loss of momentum in the rebound.The long side may regain confidence in case of a bullish breakout and 4540 would be the next target. Failing that, a drop below 4425 would prompt buyers to bail out, leaving the index vulnerable to a sharp fall.4340 would be the last support before a deeper correction drives the index to July’s lows near 4240.
Sideways drifts and targets hit

Sideways drifts and targets hit

Jason Sen Jason Sen 28.10.2021 12:21
AUDUSD trades sideways after we warned last week that the rally has ended with Thursday's bearish engulfing candle. We keep holding good support at 7465/55 & held just below strong resistance at 7555/65. We can trade the range while we wait for a breakout. NZDUSD longs at 7140/30 work perfectly again yesterday hitting the target of 7180/90 for profit taking as we remain in the sideways trend. This could be the case for an extended period after Thursday's bearish engulfing candle. AUDJPY also likely to trade sideways for a while after Thursday's bearish engulfing candle for a sell signal. Today's Analysis. AUDUSD longs at good support at 7465/55 work again on the bounce to 7500/05 for profit taking before a high for the day yesterday exactly at the next target of 7530/35. Strong resistance at 7555/65 should be a big challenge. Try shorts with stops above 7580, looking for a double top sell signal. Longs at 7465/55 again today stop below 7445 (so the risk is very small). A break lower is a sell signal targeting 7410/7390, perhaps as far as 7360/50. NZDUSD longs at first support at 7140/30 could work again re-targeting 7180/90 for profit taking & as expected this was a high for the day. If we retest 7200/7220, try shorts with stops above 7240, looking for a double top sell signal. BUT be ready to sell again at very strong resistance at 7255/75. Stop above 7300. Longs at first support at 7140/30 must stop below 7120 so the risk is very small. A break lower is a sell signal targeting 7090/80 probably as far as 7040/30. AUDJPY I would sell at 8620/40 (unfortunately yesterday's high was 8605) with stops above 8660 looking for a double top sell signal. A break higher kills the bearish engulfing candle for a buy signal. First support at 8460/40 in the sideways trend. A bounce targets 8500 perhaps as far as 8540/50. A break below 8420 however is the next sell signal targeting 8370 & 8345/35. To subscribe to this daily report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk USDJPY longs at support at 113.40/30 were offered 50 pips yesterday. as we topped exactly at first resistance at 113.80/95. EURJPY buying opportunity at at 131.60/40, stop below 131.30. CADJPY shorts at first resistance at 9240/60 keep working this week. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wASlHvMEN6g Update daily at 06:30 GMT Today's Analysis. USDJPY meets minor resistance at 113.85/95. Strong resistance at last week's high at 114.50/70. Shorts need stops above 114.80. A break higher is a medium term buy signal. Good support again at 113.40/30. Longs need stops below 113.20 so the risk is very small. A break lower target 113.00/112.90 & 112.60/50. EURJPY buy at 131.60/40, stop below 131.30. A break lower is a sell signal targeting 130.90 then an important buying opportunity at 130.40/20 with stops below 130.00 Longs at 131.60/40 target 131.90 & 132.10 for profit taking. Strong resistance at 132.20/40. Shorts need stops above 132.60. CADJPY shorts at first resistance at 9240/60 work again as we target 9200 & 9175, hit as I write this morning. A buying opportunity at 9120/00 with stops below 9090. Gains are likely to be limited with first resistance at 9240/60. However on a break higher sell at 9280/9300 with stops above 9320. To subscribe to this daily report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk EURUSD breaks support at 1.1620/00 so this is now working as resistance. It is difficult to trade the pair as the daily ranges are small & we are mostly trading sideways. USDCAD shorts at first resistance at 1.2420/40 this trade worked perfectly on the collapse to 1.2370  & as far as first support at 1.2300/1.2280. Longs here also this trade worked perfectly on the bounce to 1.2370 for an easy 120 pip profit on the day. GBPCAD shorts at first resistance at 1.7050/70 handed a quick & easy 150 pip profit yesterday. Update daily at 06:30  GMT Today's Analysis. EURUSD holding below first resistance at 1.1610/20 targets 1.1580 & 1.1540/30. A break below 1.1520 is an important medium term sell signal. A break above 1.1620 however can target resistance at 1.1665/75.  Next we look for a test of minor resistance at 1.1690/99. Exit longs & try shorts with stops above 1.1720. USDCAD same levels apply for today with first resistance at 1.2420/40. Shorts here stop above 1.2450. Be ready to buy a break above 1.2450 targeting 1.2510/30. Shorts at 1.2420/40 target 1.2370 then support at 1.2300/1.2280. Longs here need stops below 1.2270 for a sell signal. GBPCAD shorts at first resistance at 1.7050/70 worked perfectly on the collapsed to our targets of 1.6950/40 & 1.6910/1.6890 for an easy 150 pip profit yesterday. Ultimately we are looking for the target of 1.6870/60, perhaps as far as support at 1.6800/1.6780. We can try shorts again at first resistance at 1.7050/70 but must stop above 1.7090. A break higher is a buy signal targeting a selling opportunity at 1.7155/75 with stops above 1.7195. To subscribe to this daily report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk GBPUSD high for the day exactly at resistance at 1.3835/55 so far this week followed by a test of support at 1.3740/30, but we over ran to 1.3707. EURGBP longs at important 200 week moving average support at 8405/8395 worked perfectly on the bounce to first resistance at 8455/65 for profit taking. Shorts here are also working as I write. GBPNZD breaks important support at 1.9180/70 for a sell signal. Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis. GBPUSD first support at 1.3740/20 but be ready to sell a break below 1.3700 targeting 1.3670/60, perhaps as far as strong support at 1.3600/1.3580. Any longs at support at 1.3740/20 target 1.3770/80, perhaps as far as strong resistance at 1.3835/55. This remains key to direction in severely overbought conditions. Try shorts again with stops above 1.3875. A break above here is a medium term buy signal. EURGBP longs at important 200 week moving average support at 8405/8395 work on the bounce to first resistance at 8455/65 for profit taking. Shorts need stops above 8475. A break higher targets 8500. Shorts at first resistance at 8455/65 are working as we target 8440 before a retest of important 200 week moving average support at 8405/8395. Longs need stops below 8380. A break lower is a medium term sell signal. GBPNZD break below support at 1.9180/70 is a sell signal targeting 1.9110/00. First resistance at 1.9170/90. Shorts need stops above 1.9210.
Intraday Market Analysis – EUR Builds Up Bullish Reveal

Intraday Market Analysis – EUR Builds Up Bullish Reveal

John Benjamin John Benjamin 29.10.2021 08:55
EURUSD cuts through resistanceThe euro surges as the market prices in inflation pressure despite the ECB’s dovish message.Bullish candles have pushed the single currency above the triple top (1.1665) which sits on the 30-day moving average, paving the way for a reversal. Strong momentum is a sign of short-covering from those caught on the wrong side of the market.An overbought RSI could temporarily limit the range of the rally. However, renewed optimism may send the pair to the daily resistance at 1.1750. 1.1620 is the support in case of a pullback.USDJPY tests demand zoneThe Japanese yen recouped losses after the BOJ sees a weak yen as positive for Japan’s economy. And the US dollar has come under pressure near a four-year high.An overbought RSI on the daily chart points to an overextension. On the hourly level, the pair has found bids around 113.30 near a previous consolidation range.A bearish breakout would test the round number at 113.00, which lies on the 20-day moving average and is critical in safeguarding the uptrend. The bulls need to lift 114.30 before they may resume the rally.US 30 pulls backs for supportThe Dow Jones consolidates as investors digest earnings near the all-time high.A breakout above the August peak at 35600 and a bullish MA cross from the daily timeframe indicate an acceleration on the upside as the rally continues.Pullbacks could be an opportunity to buy low. An overbought RSI has triggered a minor sell-off below 35600, shaking out weaker hands in the process. A drop below 35450 would lead to the psychological level of 35000. 35830 is now a fresh resistance.
Intraday Market Analysis – EUR Builds Up Bullish Reveal - 29.10.2021

Intraday Market Analysis – EUR Builds Up Bullish Reveal - 29.10.2021

Jing Ren Jing Ren 29.10.2021 09:04
The euro surges as the market prices in inflation pressure despite the ECB’s dovish message. Bullish candles have pushed the single currency above the triple top (1.1665) which sits on the 30-day moving average, paving the way for a reversal. Strong momentum is a sign of short-covering from those caught on the wrong side of the market. An overbought RSI could temporarily limit the range of the rally. However, renewed optimism may send the pair to the daily resistance at 1.1750. 1.1620 is the support in case of a pullback. USDJPY tests demand zone The Japanese yen recouped losses after the BOJ sees a weak yen as positive for Japan’s economy. And the US dollar has come under pressure near a four-year high. An overbought RSI on the daily chart points to an overextension. On the hourly level, the pair has found bids around 113.30 near a previous consolidation range. A bearish breakout would test the round number at 113.00, which lies on the 20-day moving average and is critical in safeguarding the uptrend. The bulls need to lift 114.30 before they may resume the rally. US 30 pulls backs for support The Dow Jones consolidates as investors digest earnings near the all-time high. A breakout above the August peak at 35600 and a bullish MA cross from the daily timeframe indicate an acceleration on the upside as the rally continues. Pullbacks could be an opportunity to buy low. An overbought RSI has triggered a minor sell-off below 35600, shaking out weaker hands in the process. A drop below 35450 would lead to the psychological level of 35000. 35830 is now a fresh resistance.
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Seeks Consolidation

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Seeks Consolidation

John Benjamin John Benjamin 15.11.2021 08:53
USDJPY hits temporary resistance The Japanese yen pulled back after a larger-than-expected GDP contraction in Q3. The US dollar is looking to hold onto its gains after a rally above 114.00. Sentiment has recovered and a surge above 114.45 around the October peak would resume the uptrend. However, the current rebound may lack the strength to clear the supply zone right away. An overbought RSI has held the bullish fever back. A breach below 113.70 would lead to a deeper correction towards 112.80, which is a key level to keep the rebound relevant. EURCHF struggles for support The euro bounced higher after the bloc’s industrial production beat expectations in September. The RSI’s oversold situation on the daily chart has attracted bargain hunters’ attention around 1.0530, a demand area from May 2020. Price action had three failed attempts to lift offers at 1.0600, a sign of strong selling pressure to keep the downtrend going. A bullish breakout may trigger a runaway rally as sellers seek to exit a crowded short bet. A bearish one would send the single currency to 1.0490. UK 100 tests support The FTSE 100 edged lower after active job postings in the UK hit a record high. The index came under pressure at the psychological level of 7400. A combination of an overbought RSI and its bearish divergence suggests that the rally was losing momentum. Sentiment remains upbeat and a pullback could be an opportunity to get filled at a better price. Trend followers may be waiting to buy the dip near the first support at 7315. A deeper correction would send the price to 7255 along the 30-day moving average.
European Gas Jumps, while the Euro and Yen Slump

European Gas Jumps, while the Euro and Yen Slump

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 17.11.2021 15:31
Overview: The prospects that the 6.2% CPI will prompt the Fed to move quicker continue to underpin the dollar.  The euro fell to about $1.1265, its lowest level since last September, and the Japanese yen slumped to a fresh four-year low.  The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index tumbled 1% yesterday, the largest decline since February.  A more stable tone is evident in Europe, as the euro has recovered above $1.13, and the JP Morgan Index is paring yesterday's losses.  The dollar is holding just below JPY115.00.  Asia Pacific equities did not fare well.  Only China and Taiwan markets, among the large regional markets, managed to rise.  Europe's Stoxx 600 is edging higher for the sixth consecutive session.  Recall it has fallen only once since October 27.  US futures are narrowly mixed. The bond market is quiet, with the US 10-year hovering around 1.62%.  European yields are a little softer.  Gold slid below $1850 yesterday but has snapped back today to test the $1860 area.  Crude oil is heavy, with the January WTI contract around $78.80, unable to resurface above $80 amid talk that the US and China may coordinate the release of strategic holdings.  Gas prices are up another 7% in Europe today after surging 16% yesterday and 9% on Monday. Due to "unplanned maintenance," a Belarus pipeline to Poland has been shut down, which may last three days.  Iron ore prices are giving back around half of yesterday's 1.2% gain, for the third loss in four sessions.  Copper is off for a third session, losing after dropping 2.2% in the past two sessions.   Asia Pacific Japan's October trade data disappointed.  Exports and imports were weaker than expected, and this resulted in a smaller deficit. Exports slowed to 9.4% year-over-year, down from 13% in September, defying expectations for a small double-digit increase.  Imports were up 26.7% from a year ago, off the heady 38.2% pace seen in September and below the 31.8% projected.  The resulting trade deficit of JPY67.4 bln was about a fifth of what economists anticipated (Bloomberg survey).  It is the third consecutive monthly deficit.  In the first seven months of the year, Japan recorded two deficits.  A year ago, Japan recorded a JPY840 bln surplus.   Reports suggesting that the possibility that the US and China coordinate the drawdown of strategic oil reserves are light on details, but the suggestion itself is enough to weigh on prices.  Still, the International Energy Agency yesterday echoed the broad assessment of America's EIA in anticipating that the tightness of the oil market could ease shortly.   Increased output in the US, Saudi Arabia, and Russia may account for half of the 1.5 mln barrel a day anticipated increase in supply. Nevertheless, the acting head of the EIA warned tapping the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve would have a short-term impact, for which other dynamics would quickly overshadow it.  Separately, note that the API estimated a slight build of 655k barrels in US stocks this past week, while gasoline inventories fell.   In other regional developments, Australia's wage price index rose a modest 0.6% in Q3 for a year-over-year pace of 2.2%.  This was in line with expectations.  It would seem to support the RBA's argument that it need not be in a hurry to raise rates.  The June 2022 T-bill yield settled last month at 69 bp and is now near 40 bp.  Separately, China appears to be allowing "high quality" property developments to return to the asset-backed securities market to raise capital after a three-month hiatus. Lastly, reports suggest Beijing is moving ahead with its import substitution plans to reduce dependency on foreign technology.    The dollar approached JPY115.00, where an option for almost $610 mln expires today.  The dollar has not traded above there since March 2017.  Since the dollar broke above JPY112.00, we have suggested that JPY114.50-JPY115.00 may mark the top of the new range.  While this has worked for the past month, the risk is on the upside.  A convincing break of around JPY115.50 would target the JPY118.00 area.  Initial support is now seen near JPY114.70.  Note that the upper Bollinger Band is slightly below JPY114.80.  The Australian dollar is trading near its lowest level since October 6, near $0.7265.  It is holding above a trendline connecting the August and September lows, which is found near $0.7250 today, but little stands in the way of a test on the $0.7200 in the coming days.  An option for a little more than A$800 mln at $0.7300 is set to expire today.  After posting a key upside reversal yesterday, the US dollar consolidated against the Chinese yuan today, and no follow-through buying materialized.  Instead, it seemed that the local market took advantage of the pop above CNY6.39 to sell the greenback, which is straddling CNY6.38 in late dealings.  The reference rate was set at CNY6.3935, just below the bank projections (CNY6.3936, according to the median in the Bloomberg survey).  We note that the yuan is also at its best level since 2015 against the trade-weighted CFETS basket the PBOC uses.   Europe On the heels of a strong employment report, the UK reported a larger than expected increase in the October CPI.  The preferred measure, which includes owner-equivalent housing costs, jumped to 3.8% from 2.9%.  The older measure rose to 4.2% from 3.1%.  On the month, consumer prices rose 1.1% rather than the 0.8% economists forecast (Bloomberg median). Flattered by increasing gas and electricity prices.  Core prices rose 3.4% year-over-year, accelerating from 2.9% in September and defying forecasts for a 3.1% pace.  Separately, producer prices, both input and output, also rose more than expected.  Lastly, UK house prices rose 11.8% year-over-year in September, up from a revised 10.2% in August.  The recent peak was 12.6% in June, which was the highest since 2004.    European gas prices are at one-month highs.  Belarus has stopped its pipeline to Poland, claiming unplanned maintenance issues, while the border tensions and earlier threats raise suspicions of a political move.  Separately, the German regulator suspended the certification process of the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline as corporate assets are rearranged.  Separately, a German court yesterday dismissed an environmental challenge to the pipeline.  Lastly, we note that the virus flare-up continues in Europe, and Germany and the Czech Republic reported a record number of cases. The euro surpassed our $1.1290 Fibonacci target and did not find bids until the $1.1265 area in Asian turnover.  The single currency has been in a tight range in Europe, holding above $1.1300.  Initial resistance is seen around $1.1330 now.  A move above yesterday's high, near $1.1385, is needed to lift the tone. We suspect the near big target is closer to $1.10.  Sterling slipped to a three-day low, slightly below $1.34, but shot up to the session high near $1.3375 on the inflation news. However, the momentum was not sustained, and sterling is little changed in late morning European turnover near $1.3430. The euro briefly traded below GBP0.8400 for the first time since March 2020 but snapped back.  An 840 mln euro option at GBP0.8445 expires today and another for about 620 mln euros at GBP0.8450 expires tomorrow.   America US retail sales surged last month, and the 1.7% rise was the best since March.  After slowing in Q3, consumption is off to a strong start in Q4.  Industrial production was also much stronger than expected, rising 1.6% compared with the 0.9% gain anticipated by economists (median, Bloomberg survey).  The US reports October housing starts today, and they are expected to have recovered from the 1.6% decline seen in September. Housing starts fell in Q3 but are seen rising in Q4, encouraged by an easing of some supply chain issues.   In fact, on several fronts, there are preliminary signs that the disruptions are dissipating.  Some reports suggest that the shortage of semiconductor chips may be passed, and US auto sales rose in October for the first time in six months.  Both the EIA and IEA have forecast a more balanced oil market, and some measures of shipping costs have moderated. The Los Angeles port has reportedly reduced the number of empty containers by around a quarter this month as six new sweeper ships have been brought into operation.  In addition, we note that the re-opening of US borders means immigrant workers may begin returning.  There is still much debate, of course, on the extent that the elevated price pressures are the result of supply chain disruptions.  A report by the Bank for International Settlements estimates that without the supply problems, US inflation would be closer to 2.5% and eurozone inflation near 1.5%. President Biden is expected to make his Fed announcements in the next few days, according to reports, but it could slip into early next week.  Powell is still the favorite, and he has Treasury Secretary Yellen's in support.  Yellen warns that action is needed soon on the debt ceiling.  Her efforts may be exhausted early next month.  Lastly, San Francisco Fed President Daly opined she was more bullish on the economy than a year ago.  This seems backward to us.  A year ago, the vaccine was announced, and fiscal stimulus was anticipated after the US election. Going forward, there will be less monetary and fiscal stimulus.  The pent-up demand ("excess savings") is projected to be exhausted by early next year, and, as we have noted, the doubling of the price of oil has preceded the last three recessions in the US. We suspect that there is sufficient stimulus and need to rebuild inventories to sustain reasonably strong growth for the next few quarters, but by the second half of next year, sub-3% growth will return as the norm.  Canada reports October CPI figures today.  The headline is likely to rise to 4.7% from 4.4% in September (Bloomberg median).  However, the base effect points to a further rise this month and December, when in 2020, the CPI rose 0.1% and fell 0.2%, respectively.   The underlying core rates are also increasing.  The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada cautioned about the high degree of uncertainty around potential structural shifts in the labor market that make it challenging to gauge full employment with any degree of confidence.  He pointed to economic areas that still show slack.  The market is expecting the first hike next March/April.  Note that tomorrow, the "Three Amigos" (Biden, Trudeau, and AMLO) meet in the US amid concern that the US "Build Back Better" has strong nationalistic elements, including for electric vehicles.     The US dollar posted an outside up day against the Canadian dollar yesterday, and follow-through buying has lifted it to around CAD1.2585.  At the end of last week, the high set was slightly above CAD1.2600, which close approximates the (50%) retracement of the greenback's decline since the September 20 high near CAD1.29.  The next retracement (61.8%) is found by CAD1.2665.  Still, we expect that a firm CPI report will lend the Loonie some support.  The session low, set in late Asia, near CAD1.2540, may be protected a CAD1.2545 option for $600 mln that expires today.  The greenback is consolidating against the Mexican peso today after rallying yesterday from about MXN20.56 to nearly MXN20.85.  The high from earlier this month was near MXN20.98.  It has not been above MXN21.00 since March.  Initial support is seen around MXN20.60.   Disclaimer
COT Currency Speculator Sentiment rising for Euro & British Pound Sterling

Forex: US dollar takes the lead after the jump in inflation

Capital Capital 17.11.2021 16:01
Forex: US dollar takes the lead after the jump in inflation The US dollar rallied against all other currencies on Thursday, after US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose more than expected in October, reviving speculations about faster interest rate hikes next year.  The US Dollar index (DXY) hovers around new 52-week highs at 95.00 level, gaining 0.8% since the CPI release. US Treasury yields also rose after the inflation surprise, with a 7 basis points (bps) increase in the 2-year yield and 9 bps on the 10-year benchmark.   EUR/USD and GBP/USD both slipped by nearly 0.7% from yesterday’s midday London trading, while they edged down around 0.1% from previous close.   The Swiss franc (CHF) and the Japanese yen (JPY) have lost 0.7% of their value against the greenback since the CPI was out, while the Aussie (AUD) and the Kiwi (NZD) weakened 1.2% and 1.9% respectively.  Elsewhere, emerging market currencies sold-off after the inflation print, with the South African rand (ZAR) and the Mexican peso (MXN) both down 1.4% against the dollar, while the Turkish lira (TRY)  hit new all-time lows by weakening 1% versus the greenback.  US dollar As of writing, the US Dollar index (DXY) was last at 94.98 level, up 0.21% on the day. In October, US inflation was substantially higher than market forecasts and not only confined to COVID-related items but broad based across the main items in the index, as the cost of services is also rising. Core CPI inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, increased by 0.6% points to 4.6% on the year, well above consensus (4.3%). Core inflation in the US reached the highest level since 1991. Headline inflation rose by 0.8% points to 6.2% on the year, hitting the highest level since 1990 and again above expectations of a 5.8% year-on-year rise. Markets are now pricing in a 71% probability, up from 56.5% yesterday, Fed starts hiking interest rate in June next year. DXY technical levels: 52-week high: 95.03 52-week low: 89.212 50-day moving average: 93.59 200-day moving average: 92.08 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI): 64.83 Euro As of writing, the euro is down 0.15% from previous close versus the US dollar (EUR/USD) and flat against the British pound (EUR/GBP). Yesterday, ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said that asset purchases (QE) could end next in September or December next year, depending on the inflation dynamics. Today, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane will speak at the 2nd joint ECB-FED New York conference, while ECB executive board member Isabel Schnabel will take part at a Q&A organized by Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität. EUR/USD technical levels: 52-week high: 1.2349 52-week low: 1.1455 50-day moving average: 1.1662 200-day moving average: 1.1882 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI): 35.72 British pound GBP/USD is down 0.15% to 1.3532 as of writing. On the data front, UK gross domestic product (GDP) preliminary figure came in at 6.6% year-on-year in Q3 (1.3% quarter-over-quarter), disappointing market expectations by 0.2%. Manufacturing production increased 2.8% year-on-year in September, missing market forecast of 3.1%, while business investment was up 0.8% quarter-over-market in Q3, disappointing market expectations of a 2.6% increase. GBP/USD technical levels. 52-week high: 1.4248 52-week low: 1.3091 50-day moving average: 1.3684 200-day moving average: 1.3845 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI): 33.39
Covid Wave Knocks Euro Down and to new 6-year Lows Against the Swiss Franc

Covid Wave Knocks Euro Down and to new 6-year Lows Against the Swiss Franc

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 19.11.2021 13:58
Overview:  Concerns about the virus surge in Europe cut short the euro's bounce and sent it back below $1.1300 and are also weighing on central European currencies, including the Hungarian forint, despite yesterday's aggressive hike of the one-week deposit rate.  Austria has reintroduced a hard 20-day lockdown.  Germany's health minister warned that the situation deteriorated and vaccines were not enough to break the wave.  He was explicit that a lockdown cannot be ruled out.  The US dollar is trading broadly higher.  Only the yen is resilient on the day, but sterling is the only major currency that has edged higher this week.  The Scandis and euro are off more than 1%.  Speculation that Turkey may announce measures over the weekend to stabilize the lira may be helping to deter new sales today after yesterday's rout.  In the nine-day drop through today, it is depreciated by almost 15%.  The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is off for the fourth consecutive session to bring this week's loss to more than 2%, the most in five months.  Equities do not know of the consternation in the foreign exchange market.  Disappointing Alibaba results weighed on the Hang Seng (~-1%), while most other large regional bourses but Taiwan and India closed the week on an up note.   Europe's Stoxx 600 snapped a six-day advance yesterday. It was only the second loss since October.  It began firmer today but has reversed lower, putting at risk the six-week rally.   US futures are mixed, with the NASDAQ outperforming.  Bond markets are in rally mode as well.   The US 10-year yield is off three basis points to approach the week's low near 1.53%.  European bonds are off mostly 3-5 basis points, even in the UK, where retail sales surprised on the upside.  Gold is steady, finding support near $1850.  Oil initially extended yesterday's recovery but is reversing lower, leaving the January WTI contract set to test yesterday's low near $76.45.  This is the fourth consecutive weekly fall in crude oil.  European natural gas (Netherlands benchmark) is off 4.4% today, the third drop in a row, and pares the week's gain to almost 19%.  In Singapore, iron ore prices jumped 5.7% to break a five-week slide that saw prices tumble by about 28%.   Copper is firmer and paring this week's loss to around 2%.   Asia Pacific There were two developments in Japan to note.  First, October CPI was largely in line with expectations.  Surging gasoline prices (seven-year highs) helped keep the headline rate positive for the second month (0.1% year-over-year).  Excluding fresh food, the core rate was steady at 0.1%.  However, the deflationary forces are evident when fresh food and energy are removed.  The measure deteriorated to -0.7% from -0.5%, the most since June (-0.9%).    Second, Prime Minister Kishida unveiled an overall package of JPY78.9 trillion (~$690 bln). It is larger than the previous two pandemic packages. "Fiscal measures" refer to spending, investment, and loans, and this is seen worth about JPY55.7 trillion.  It is not clear yet, how much represents new spending as opposed to the reallocation of funds from earlier budgets that were not used. However, it appears to be about JPY32 trillion of new spending.   The Chinese yuan, up a modest 2.1% for the year, is the strongest currency.   Against a trade-weighted basket (CFETS), the yuan is pulling back from a six-year high set earlier this week as the euro recovers a cent.  Consider that the yuan has appreciated by more than 9% against the euro and 11.5% against the yen this year.  That means that investment in China has the same tailwind as the dollar and is compensated a bit for the relative lack of transparency and liquidity.  The Financial Times estimates that foreign holdings of Chinese bonds and stocks rose to around $1.1 trillion at the end of September, about a 13% increase this year.  China's stock market has underperformed this year, and the CSI 300 is off around 7% this year.  On the other hand, China's bonds have fared well.  It is the only 10-year bond that has not weakened this year.  China's figures show foreign direct investment has risen by almost 18% this year through October to nearly $142 bln.   The dollar is posting an outside down day against the Japanese yen by first rising above yesterday's high before reversing and taking out yesterday's low. It is approaching the week's low near JPY113.75 in the European morning.  Below there, support is seen around JPY113.60.  A break would warn of a return to JPY113.00.  The Australian dollar has been sold to its lowest level since October 6, when it recorded a low of almost $0.7225.   It has broken the trendline that connected the August and September lows (~$0.7250).  The September low was around $0.7170 and maybe the next important technical target.  The dollar is trading with a firmer bias against the Chinese yuan, but the greenback remains in the range set on Tuesday (~CNY6.3670-CNY6.3965).  The dollar gained on the yuan four sessions this week, the most since July, but the net gain of less than 0.2% still shows an extraordinarily steady exchange rate.   With the yuan near six-year highs against its trade-weighted basket (CFETS), the PBOC warned against one-way moves and encouraged financial institutions to bolster fx risk management.  It set the dollar's reference rate at CNY6.3825, slightly above expectations (Bloomberg survey) for CNY6.3822.   Europe The stronger than expected October retail sales capped the week's data that points to a rebounding economy and boosts the chances of a rate hike next month.  A strong jobs report was followed by a larger than expected rise in CPI and PPI.  Retail sales jumped 0.8% in October, and the September series was revised to flat from -0.2%. It was the first increase since April.  Pre-Xmas sales were reported.  Separately, the UK government reported that the cost of servicing the national debt has risen more than three-fold over the past year, leaving the budget deficit higher than anticipated.  It appears that the swaps market is pricing in a 15 bp hike at the December 16 BOE meeting, though some are talking about a bigger move.    Several ECB officials, including President Lagarde, have successfully pushed back against expectations of a 20 bp rate hike next year that had appeared discounted by the swaps market earlier this month. The market has pushed it into early 2023.  The implied yield of the December 2022 Euribor futures contract has fallen 20 bp this month.  The December 2022 Eurodollar futures contract is moving in the opposite direction.  The implied yield has risen by about 4.5 bp this month.  The net result is the US premium has increased to over 125 bp, the highest since last March.  In late 2019, the premium was around 180 bp.  This is recognized as a factor helping lift the dollar against the euro, and it appears to have become more salient recently.   The euro's bounce yesterday, its first gain in seven sessions (since the US CPI shocker), stalled near $1.1375, where a 780 mln euro option expires today.   The euro traded quietly in Asia before being sold aggressively as news of the virus hit the wires.  The euro traded through $1.1285 before catching a bid.  Resistance now will likely be encountered around $1.1320.  The euro is posting its first back-to-back weekly of more than 1% since March 2020.  Sterling is also sliding back toward the week's lows, just above $1.3400.  A break could signal a test on the $1.3350 area, but it appears stretched on an intraday basis.  While the euro-sterling cross is practically flat, the euro has punched below CHF1.05 for the first time in six years.  It would not be surprising to learn that the SNB has been intervening.  There appears to be little chart support until closer to CHF1.0250. America The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office offered its evaluation of the Biden administration's Build Back Better initiative.  It sees $1.636 trillion in spending over the next decade and almost $1.27 trillion in revenue.  That leaves a deficit of $367 bln.  A notable difference between it and the administration is how much more revenue will be generated by increasing the number of IRS agents.  Even if it passes the House of Representatives, it will likely be marked up in the Senate.  The jockeying for position and spin around it will likely dominate the session, which sees no US economic reports outside of the rig count later today.  The Fed's Clarida and Waller speaker today.  It seems that most market participants still see the Fed behind the curve and disagree with our idea that to secure the ability to respond to a wide range of possible outcomes, the Federal Reserve may accelerate its tapering starting in January.   It is not clear exactly when the debt ceiling will be reached, but it is being played.  The Democrats do not want to lift it through the reconciliation process, though they have forced the Republicans to do so in the past.  The Republicans appear to have the discipline and will to oppose.  No one seems to think the US will really default, and getting even this close seems undignified.  Yet, the desire to avoid being caught out encouraged investors to demand a high yield on the four-week bill sold.  Yesterday's auction saw the yield more than double to 11 bp (annualized).  It is the highest yield since July 2020.  In contrast, the eight-week bill, which is thought to be beyond the shenanigans, yield slipped to 4.5 bp from six previously and a higher bid-cover ratio.   Canada reports September retail sales figures today.  After a 2.1% rise in August, some weakness is expected.  Ahead of it, the Canadian dollar is trading at new lows for the week, though it is faring better than the other dollar-bloc currencies.  The US dollar is approaching the (61.8%) retracement objective of the decline since the CAD1.29 level was tested on September 20.  The retracement level is near CAD1.2665, and a break would target CAD1.2700-CAD1.2750.  The upper  Bollinger Band is found near CAD1.2655 today.   The Mexican peso is also under pressure.  It, too, has fallen to a new low for the week today.  The greenback looks set to test the eight-month high set earlier this month near MXN20.98.  Note that the central bank's Deputy Governor warned that inflation was accelerating, and it could rise to 7% this month and 7.1%-7.3% next month.  In October, the CPI stood at 6.24% year-over-year.  Banxico meets next on December 16, the day after the FOMC meeting.  Lastly, we note that the Brazilian real is off for four consecutive sessions coming into today.  The dollar closed above its 20-day moving average against it yesterday and looks poised to probe above BRL5.60 today. The high for the month was closer to BRL5.70.   Disclaimer
Covid Strikes Back

Covid Strikes Back

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 26.11.2021 12:44
November 26, 2021  $USD, Covid, Currency Movement, Hungary, Mexico, South Korea Overview: Concerns that a new mutation of the Covid virus has shaken the capital markets.  Equities are off hard, and bonds have rallied.  In the foreign exchange market, the Japanese yen and Swiss franc have rallied.  While there may be a safe haven bid, there also appears to be an unwinding of positions that require the buying back of the funding currencies, which is also lifting the euro.  The currencies levered from growth, the dollar-bloc and Scandis are weaker.   Oil has been knocked back by around  6.7%, with January WTI trading near $73. Led by 2%+ losses in Japan, Hong Kong, and India, and 1%+ losses in South Korea, and Taiwan, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index has slumped to its lowest level since July.   Europe's Stoxx 600 gapped lower and is off around 2.4% near midday.  US futures are sharply lower (1.25%-2.5%).  The US 10-year yield has dropped around 12 bp to nearly 1.50%.  While UK Gilts have kept pace with US Treasuries, continental benchmark yields are off 6-8 bp.  The US 2-year yield is about 15 bp lower (~0.49%), while European 2-year yields are mostly 2-5 bp lower.  The 2-year Gilts yield has shed about 12 bp, as the market unwinds some of the chances of a rate hike next month.   Key Development: A new variant of the Covid virus was found.  It is thought to have the most mutations to date.  The EU, UK, Israel, and Singapore have quickly banned travel from South Africa and five neighboring countries.  This is coming on top of and is separate from the outbreak in Europe, where Germany has reported a record number of new cases and several other countries have introduced new restrictions.  Almost a third of Shanghai flights were canceled as three local cases were found.  US infections are also on the rise.  Asia Pacific  As widely expected, South Korea hiked its key 7-day repo rate by 25 bp to 1.0% yesterday.   It follows a 25 bp hike in August.  Consumer inflation rose 3.2% year-over-year in October, while the core rate rose 2.8%.  Growth in Q3 was 4.0%.  With today's roughly 0.3% decline, it brings this year's loss to almost 9%.  Only the yen (~-9.4%) and the Thai baht (~-11%) have performed worse in the region.   Australia reported stronger than expected October retail sales.  The 4.9% month-over-month surge was more than twice the Bloomberg median forecast (2.2%) and follows September's 1.3% gain.  It underscores the recovery that is taking place. The preliminary PMI showed the recovery continuing into November.  The composite rose to 55.0, its highest reading since June.   The dollar was fraying the upper end of the range we anticipated against the yen, pushing against JPY115.50.  The momentum looked to have been at risk of stalling when the news struck.  The dollar was sold to almost JPY113.65.  An option for $710 mln at JPY113.70 expires today.  The price action appears to be stabilizing a bit in the European morning, and the greenback is hovering around JPY114.00.    The trendline connecting the September and the previous two November lows comes in today near there today.  The JPY114.50 area looks to offer initial resistance.  The Australian dollar had been leaking through $0.7200, and the risk-off move sent it slightly through $0.7115, just above the low for the year set on August 20, closer to $0.7105.  A break could spur a move toward $0.7050, which is the (38.2%) retracement of the Australian dollar's recovery since March 2020, when it hit a low near $0.5500.  The $0.7140 area may provide the initial cap for the bounce.   The Chinese yuan is a rock.  It has hardly moved despite the broader developments.  The greenback is slightly (less than 0.05%) firmer and still a little below CNY6.39.  The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at CNY6.3936, a touch above the CNY6.3934 median projection (Bloomberg survey).   Europe Part of the limited reaction short-end of the European debt market derives from the fact that investors had not expected a change in ECB's monetary policy until the very end of next year, at the earliest.  The surge in the delta strain had already emerged as a weight on the euro.  We had put emphasis on the divergence with the US and saw it captured in the two-year interest rate differential between the US and Germany.  The US premium had risen from around 90 bp in mid-September to 140 bp in the middle of this week.  It has fallen back to about 128 bp today.  Some observers had focused on the year-end adjustments of European banks and the shifting of liquidity through the cross-currency swap basis.   The new German coalition has been announced, and it will have its work cut out.  A record number of new cases have been reported in Germany, and many countries are introducing new social restrictions.  Portugal will try something a bit different.  It is set to require people to work from home in early January for a week to avoid a spike in the virus after the holidays.   Hungary was more aggressive than expected yesterday.  It raised its one-week deposit rate by 40 bp to 2.90%.  Recall that on November 18, it had hiked the one-week deposit rate 70 bp to 2.50%.  Two days earlier, it lifted the base rate 30 bp to 2.10%.  The forint had fallen to a record low against the euro on November 23.   The euro's high was just shy of HUF372, and it fell back to about HUF364.80 yesterday before jumping back to almost HUF369.50 today.  It has steadied around HUF368 in the European morning.   The euro's downside momentum had begun easing as bids below $1.12 were being filled.  The virus developments have spurred what appears to a be short-covering rally that has lifted the single currency thought $1.1280, where a 460 mln euro option expires today.  Nearby resistance is seen near $1.1300 and then last week's high near $1.1375.  Sterling recorded a new low for the year near $1.3280 in late Asian turnover before finding support.  It recovered to about $1.3335 so far.  A move above yesterday's high (~$1.3355) could spur a move to $1.3400-$1.3425.    America The dollar's rally has been fueled by the prospect of a divergence of monetary policy that favored the Fed over the ECB and BOJ.  Indeed, since the November 10 surprise jump in the October CPI to above 6%, we had emphasized the likelihood that the Fed would have to taper quicker to give it the flexibility to lift rates earlier if needed.  Since then, 4-5 Fed officials and several large banks have also underscored this possibility. However, this scenario is being called into question today, which is evident in the swaps markets and the Fed funds futures.  The implied yield of the June 2022 Fed funds futures contract is 7.5 basis points lower, and the December 2022 contract implied yield is down 14.5 bp.  The US dollar rallied to CAD1.2775, its highest level since late September.  It tests a downtrend line connecting the August (~CAD1.2950) and September (~CAD1.2900) highs. A convincing break of the trendline would signal a test on those earlier highs.   We are inclined to see it hold but cannot be confident until CAD1.2720 yields.   The Mexican peso was trampled before today amid concerns about the implications of President AMLO pulling Herrera's nomination for central bank head.  Herrera is a seasoned hand, and although he worked closely with AMLO from the finance ministry, his appointment did not seem to jeopardize the independence of the central bank.  Perhaps the market has been influenced by developments in Turkey, but the nomination of a less experienced and less known candidate has weighed on sentiment.  The dollar, already bid, jumped to MXN22.1550, at its best level since September 2020.   It has pulled back to around MXN21.83, which leaves it up around 1.2%.  This would be the seventh consecutive decline in the peso.  Support is seen around MXN21.60.  Disclaimer
Focusing On US CPI, Fed, Commodities and Bank Of Japan - Saxo Market Call

Market Quick Take - November 29, 2021

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 29.11.2021 09:48
Macro 2021-11-29 08:40 6 minutes to read Summary:  The market is trying to brush off fears that the new omicron covid variant may significantly disrupt the global economy, with only partial success as cases of the variant have been discovered in multiple countries outside of the original outbreak area. Equities and crude oil markets have erased a portion of the enormous losses from Friday, but the Japanese yen strength actually accelerated at times overnight as Japan will move to halt entry by all foreign visitors. What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - US equity futures with especially Nasdaq 100 futures are charging ahead trading above the 50% retracement level based on Friday’s price action. The new Covid variant has for now made the market put monetary tightening on pause for a while until we get a better picture of the new variant and its impact. This is supporting US technology stocks as it puts less upward pressure on interest rates. Stoxx 50 (EU50.I) - European equities were down the most on Friday logically bouncing back the most in today’s session with Stoxx 50 futures trading at the 50% retracement level of Friday’s selloff at the 4,151 level. The next big resistance level on the upside is 4,189. If the new Covid variant ends up restricting mobility and travelling we expect Europe and emerging markets to perform worse than US equities. USDJPY and JPY crosses – The Friday meltdown in risk sentiment saw the Japanese yen rallying strongly, with a classic risk proxy pairing like the AUDJPY suffering its worst single day draw-down since the pandemic outbreak in March of 2020. While other markets tried to put on a hopeful face at the start of the week in Asia today, it is notable that the JPY strength has actually accelerated, perhaps in part as Japan is taking the remarkable step of banning all inbound travel from foreign destinations starting tomorrow. In USDJPY, we watch the important pivot low of 112.73, a fall through which could set up a challenge of the 111.50-111.00 zone that supports the trend from the lows of early 2021. Speculative positioning is quite short the JPY, so there is considerable potential fuel for an extension of this JPY rally. EURJPY has broken down through the important 128.00 area support overnight. EURUSD – the squeeze higher in EURUSD on Friday appears linked with the market moving quickly to remove expectations of Fed rate hikes in the wake of the news of the new omicron covid variant, which improves the equation for the euro from a “yield spread” perspective. For EURUSD to trade to new cycle lows from here, we would likely either need to see a return to new highs for the cycle in Fed expectations or some new meltdown in sentiment that would reward the US dollar more as a safe haven. Resistance is perhaps 1.1350-1.1385. Gold (XAUUSD) failed to attract a strong safe haven bid on Friday to push it through resistance at $1816. This despite multiple tailwinds emerging from the omicron-driven carnage after bond yields slumped while the dollar and the VIX jumped. Instead, a slump across industrial metals spread to silver and platinum, thereby curtailing golds potential upside. Gold trades lower today with other markets making a tentative recovery in the belief Friday’s selloff was overdone. However, until we have more details about the virus (see below) the markets will remain nervous as can be seen in fresh yen strength this Monday (see above). Four failed attempts to break below $1781, a key Fibonacci level, may also offer returning bulls some comfort. Crude oil (OILUKJAN22 & OILUSJAN21) suffered one of its largest one-day crashes on Black Friday in response to worries the new omicron virus variant could drive renewed demand weakness caused by widespread lockdowns and travel bans. Equally importantly was probably the very bad timing with the news hitting the markets on a low liquidity day after the Thanksgiving holiday. The market traded higher in Asia as buyers concluded the selloff was overdone while also speculating OPEC+ may act to support prices when they meet on Thursday. The group may decide to postpone the January production increase or if necessary, temporary cut production into a period that was already expected to see the return of a balanced market. Ahead of the meeting and until we know more about the new strain and its associated risks, the market will remain very volatile. US Treasuries (IEF, TLT). The omicron strain will be in the spotlight this week as well as monetary policies expectations and the non-farm payrolls on Friday. Jerome Powell’s speech tomorrow and on Wednesday will be key as the Coronavirus and CARES act will be discussed. It’s likely that rates will remain compressed across the yield curve as there continue to be uncertainties surrounding the omicron strain. Yet, we expect the Federal Reserve to stick to their hawkish agenda and accelerate the pace of tapering in December as inflation will continue to be a concern. It implies, the yield curve will continue to bear flatten, and could even invert as economic expectations dive, pinning down long-term yields. If the White House looks to add more stimulus, that would imply more bond issuance, putting further pressure in the front part of the yield curve. German Bunds (IS0L) and Italian BTPS (BTP10). This week’s focus will be the Eurozone CPI flash numbers and news concerning Covid lockdowns and restrictions. Friday’s flight to safety provoked yields to drop across the euro area, including among sovereigns with a high beta such as Italy. The reason behind it is that German Bunds are tightly correlated to US Treasuries and that the market was anticipating more accommodative monetary policies from the ECB, which have been benefitting mostly the periphery. Investors should remain cautious. Indeed, inflation remains a big focus and could drive towards less accommodative policies rather than more. What is going on? Market is grappling with what to do about the omicron covid variant. The worst impact so far is from the speed with which countries are moving to halt inbound foreign travel, with many countries stopping all flights from South Africa and other countries in the region, while Japan has taken the dramatic step of halting all inbound foreign travel from tomorrow. More hopeful indications from virologists in the virus origin area are anecdotally that this variant is not particularly virulent, although others point out that too little is known about the virus’ effects on more vulnerable patients. Weak Black Friday spending in the US, particular in-store sales. While up strongly from last year’s virus impacted activity at physical stores, US Black Friday spending in-store was down some 28% from 2019 levels and the online shopping on Friday was at $8.9 billion vs. $9.0 billion in 2019, rather disappointing totals, although some suggest that Americans have brought forward their holiday shopping this year because of widespread fears of shortages of popular products. What are we watching next? Whether market can quickly recover from fresh wave of virus concerns. The virus concerns triggered by the new variant were a jarring development, given the prior focus recently on inflation and central banks having to bring forward tightening plans to stave off inflationary risks. US stocks have been the quickest to try to put a brave face on the situation and there is some support for equities as rate hike expectations from the Fed have dropped sharply and long US treasury yields are also sharply lower, but it will take time to learn how transmissible and virulent this new omicron virus strain is, as well as how much damage will be done to growth and sentiment by new limitations on travel and other restrictions. We also have to recall that prior to this news, Europe was the epicenter of the latest wave of the delta variant and was already trading somewhat defensively. US President Biden is set to speak this evening on the new virus variant. The UN FAO will publish its monthly World Food Price Index on Thursday, and another strong read is expected, although the year-on-year increase look set to ease from 31.3%. November has been another strong month for the grains sector led by wheat due to strong demand and worries about the Australian harvest. Elsewhere Arabica coffee trades near a ten-year high on increased concerns about production in Brazil. Before Friday’s carnage across markets the Bloomberg Agriculture Spot index had reached a 5 ½-year high after rallying by 40% during the past year. Earnings Watch – earnings this week are light with the key ones to watch being Li Auto, Snowflake, Crowdstrike, Elastic, and DocuSign. Monday: Sino Biopharmaceutical, China Gas, Acciona, Li Auto Tuesday: Bank of Nova Scotia, Salesforce, Zscaler, NetApp, HP Enterprise Wednesday: Trip.com, Royal Bank of Canada, National Bank of Canada, Snowflake, Synopsys, Crowdstrike, Veeva Systems, Okta, Splunk, Elastic, Five Below Thursday: Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, Toronto-Dominion Bank, Cooper Cos, Marvell Technology, DocuSign, Ulta Beauty, Asana, Dollar General, Kroger Friday: Bank of Montreal Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0830 – Sweden Q3 GDP 0830 – ECB's Guindos to speak 0930 – UK Oct. Mortgage Approvals 1000 – Euro Zone Nov. Confidence Surveys 1130 – ECB's Schnabel to speak 1300 – Germany Nov. Flash CPI 1330 – Canada Oct. Industrial Product Prices 1530 – US Nov. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey 1715 – ECB President Lagarde to speak 2000 – US Fed’s Williams (voter) to speak 2005 – US Fed Chair Powell gives opening remarks at conference 2350 – Japan Oct. Industrial Production 0030 – Australia Oct. Building Approvals 0100 – China Nov. Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing PMI 0200 – Australia RBA’s Debelle to speak  Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher
Intraday Market Analysis – Yen’s Rally Gains Traction

Intraday Market Analysis – Yen’s Rally Gains Traction

John Benjamin John Benjamin 29.11.2021 10:01
EURJPY breaks double bottom The safe-haven Japanese yen soars on news of a vaccine-resistant covid variant. A bearish MA cross on the daily chart indicates weakness in the euro’s previous rebound. The pair has closed below last September’s low at 127.90, a major floor to keep price action afloat in the medium term. This is a bearish signal that the sell-off is yet to end with 127.00 as the next support. The RSI’s double bottom in the oversold area may attract some buying interest. However, the bulls will need to lift 129.50 before a reversal could take shape. GBPUSD struggles to bounce back The pound continues on its way down against the US dollar over divergent monetary policy. The pair is hovering near a 12-month low around 1.3280. Sentiment remains bearish after a failed rebound above 1.3420. A bullish RSI divergence suggests a deceleration in the downward momentum. 1.3390 is the first hurdle ahead. Its breach would prompt the short side to cover and open the door to the daily resistance at 1.3510. Otherwise, a bearish breakout would send the price to 1.3200. GER 40 to test major floor The Dax 40 plunged as investors fret that new lockdowns could wreck the recovery. The gap below 15760 has forced leveraged buyers to bail out, stirring up volatility in the process. The momentum is typical of a catalyst-driven sell-off. Below 15150 the index is testing the psychological level of 15000. The RSI’s oversold situation has attracted a ‘buying-the-dips’ crowd in the demand zone. Further down, 14820 is a key floor to maintain the uptrend. 15530 has become the closest resistance in case of a rebound.
EUR/USD: How To Trade The Pair This Week

EUR/USD: How To Trade The Pair This Week

Kseniya Medik Kseniya Medik 01.12.2021 14:57
Fundamental factors EUR/USD ended last week with a steamrolling. This week, the pair keeps edging up. Why? First, the uncertainty over the new Covid-19 variant, omicron, led to a surge in demand in safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and the Swiss. Since the US dollar lost its safe-haven role, traders preferred the EUR to the greenback. Second, the USD was rising as the markets were pricing in the rate hike by the Federal Reserve. However, omicron raised concerns that the US central bank can delay a rate increase – the bearish factor for the USD. Overall, a recovery in the US dollar depends on the vaccine progress against the omicron variant. Today, on Wednesday, we see the US dollar climbing up. It is the result of Powell’s comments. Jerome Powell is the Federal Reserve Chair. He signaled his intention to taper faster, and it supported the USD. Both omicron and Powell’s comments increased volatility in EUR/USD. What to expect further? The US will reveal essential economic data in the upcoming weeks. If it is strong, the Fed can turn more hawkish at the FOMC meeting on December 16. Technical factors The overall trend is bearish. EUR/USD has been moving down since May. However, the short-term trend is bullish as EUR/USD surged and recovered some losses thanks to the weak dollar. It has failed to cross the resistance level of 1.1370 – the high of November 19. The pair can reverse down to the recent low of 1.1260. If it crosses it from the top down, there are more chances the pair will fall further to the psychological mark of 1.1200. Resistance levels are 1.1370 and 1.1460. Download the FBS Trader app to trade anytime anywhere! For a personal computer or laptop, use MetaTrader 5!
December Monthly

December Monthly

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 02.12.2021 15:00
December 01, 2021  $USD, Macro The pandemic is still with us as the year winds down and has not yet become endemic, like the seasonal flu.  Even before the new Omicron variant was sequenced, Europe was being particularly hard hit, and social restrictions, especially among the unvaccinated, were spurring social strife.  US cases, notably in the Midwest, were rising, and there is fear that it is 4-6 weeks behind Europe in experiencing the surge.  Whatever herd immunity is, it has not been achieved.  Moreover, despite plenty of vaccines in high-income countries, inoculation efforts in many low-income countries won't begin in earnest until next year.   That said, the new variant has injected a new element into the mix, and it is with a heightened degree of uncertainty that we share our December outlook.  Given the unknowns, policymakers can choose the kind of error they are willing to make. They are trying to minimize their maximum regret.  The utmost regret is that the mutation is dangerous and renders the existing vaccines and treatment significantly less effective.  This will leave them vulnerable to accusations of over-reacting if the Omicron turns out to be a contagious but less deadly variation.   Meanwhile, there has been some relief to the supply chain disruptions.  Covid-related factory closures in Asia, the energy shortage, and port congestion are easing. Large US retailers have stocked up for the holiday shopping season, some of which chartered their own ships to ensure delivery. There are also preliminary signs that the semiconductor chip shortage may be past its worst.  Indeed, the recovery of the auto sector and rebuilding of inventories will help extend the economic expansion well into next year, even though fiscal and monetary policy are less supportive for most high-income countries.  The flash November US manufacturing PMI saw supplier delivery delays fall to six-month lows.   We assume that the US macabre debt ceiling ritual will not lead to a default, and even though it distorted some bill auctions, some resolution is highly probable.  The debate over the Build Back Better initiative, approved by the House of Representatives, will likely be scaled back by moderate Democratic Senators and Republicans.  Besides assessing the risks posed by the new variant, the focus in December is back on monetary policy.  Four large central banks stand out.  The Chinese economy has slowed the People's Bank of China quarterly monetary report modified language that signals more monetary support may be forthcoming.  Many observers see another reduction in reserve requirements as a reasonable step.  Unlike in the US and Europe, which saw bank lending dry-up in the housing market crisis (2008-2009), Beijing is pressing state-owned banks to maintain lending, including the property sector.   The Federal Reserve meets on December 15.  There are two key issues.  First, we expect the FOMC to accelerate the pace of tapering to allow it to have the option to raise rates in Q2 22.  The Fed's commitment to the sequence (tapering, hikes, letting balance sheet run-off) and the current pace of tapering deny the central bank the needed flexibility.  The November CPI will be reported on December 10.  The headline will likely rise to around 6.7%, while the core rate may approach 5%.  Second, the new "Summary of Economic Projections" will probably show more Fed officials seeing the need to hike rates in 2022.  In September, only half did.  The rhetoric of the Fed's leadership has changed.  It will not refer to inflation as transitory and is signaling its intention to act.  The European Central Bank and the Bank of England meet the day after the FOMC.  The ECB staff will update its forecasts, and the key here is where it sees inflation at the end of the forecasting period.  In September, it anticipated that CPI would be at 1.5% at the end of 2023.  Some ECB members argued it was too low.   It may be revised higher, but the key for the policy outlook is whether it is above the 2% target.  We doubt that this will be the case.  While the ECB will likely announce that it intends on respecting the current end of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program next March, its QE will persist. The pre-crisis Asset Purchase Program is expected to continue and perhaps even expand in Q2 22.  The "modalities" of the post-emergency bond-buying program, size, duration, and flexibility (self-imposed limits) will be debated between the hawks and doves.  With eurozone inflation approaching 5% and Germany CPI at 6%, the hard-money camp will have a new ally at the German Finance Ministry as the FDP leader Linder takes the post.  On the other hand, the Social Democrats will name a Weidmann's replacement at the head of the Bundesbank, and nearly anyone will be less hawkish.   While we correctly anticipated that the Bank of England would defy market expectations and stand pat in November, the December meeting is trickier.  The decision could ultimately turn on the next employment and CPI reports due 1-2 days before the BOE meeting.  The risk is that inflation will continue to accelerate into early next year and that the labor market is healing after the furlough program ended in September.  On balance, we suspect it will wait until next year to hike rates and finish its bonds purchases next month as planned.   Having been caught wrong-footed in November, many market participants are reluctant to be bitten by the same dog twice. As a result, the swaps market appears to be rising in about a 35% chance of a 15 bp move that would bring the base rate up to 25 bp.  Sterling dropped almost 1.4% (or nearly two cents) on November 4, the most since September 2020 when the BOE failed to deliver the hike that the market thought the BOE had signaled.   The combination of a strong dollar and the Fed tapering weighed emerging market currencies as a whole.  The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index fell by about 4.5% in November, its third consecutive monthly decline, bringing the year-to-date loss to almost 10%.  It fell roughly 5.7% in 2020.  Turkey took the cake, though, with the lira falling nearly 30% on the month.  It had depreciated by 15% in the first ten months of the year.  This follows a 20% depreciation last year.  Ten years ago, a dollar would buy about 1.9 lira.  Now it can buy more than 13 lira.  The euro's weakness was a drag, and the geopolitical developments (e.g., Ukraine, Belarus) weighed on central European currencies. The central bank of Hungary turned more aggressive by hiking the one-week deposit rate by 110 bp (in two steps) after the 30 bp hike in the base rate failed to have much impact.  The forint's 3.1% loss was the most among EU members.   Colombian peso was the weakest currency in Latam, depreciating by almost 5%. It was not rewarded for delivering a larger than expected 50 bp rate hike in late October.  Bannockburn's GDP-weighted global currency index (BWCI) fell by nearly 1% in November, the largest monthly decline since June.  It reflected the decline of the world's largest currencies against the dollar.  Three currencies in the index proved resilient  On the GDP-weighted basis, China has immense gravity, with a 21.8% weighting (the six largest EM economies, including China, account for a 32.5% of the BWCI). It appreciated by about two-thirds of a percent. The Brazilian real managed to rise (~0.25%) too.  Since the day before the Omicron variant was sequenced, the Japanese yen gained a little more than 2%, reversing the earlier decline that had brought it to four-year lows.  It rose by  0.7% in November, making it the strongest currency in the index.  Among the major currencies, the Australian dollar fell the most, declining about 5.2%.  The Canadian dollar was next, with around a 3% loss.   As it turns out, the dollar (Dollar Index) recorded its low for the year as shocking events were unfolding in Washington on January 6.  The bottomed against the yen and euro the same day.   The greenback did not bottom against the Australian dollar until February, but it took it until early June to put in a low against sterling and the Canadian dollar.  The BWCI peaked in early June and, by the end of last month, had retreated by about 2.7%.  We suspect it may decline by another 2%, which would return it the levels of late 2019.  That, in turn, implies the risk of a stronger dollar into the first part of next year.     Dollar:  The jump in US CPI to above 6%, and a strong sense that it is not the peak, spurred speculation that the Federal Reserve would likely accelerate the pace of tapering at the December meeting. Several Fed officials seemed sympathetic, including San Francisco President Daly, who is perceived to be a dove. The minutes of the November meeting underscored the central bank's flexibility over the pace of tapering.  At the same time, most of the high-frequency data for October came in stronger than expected, lending credence to ideas that after a disappointing Q3, the world's largest economy is accelerating again in Q4.  The divergence of monetary policy and the subsequent widening interest rate differentials is the primary driver of expectations for dollar appreciation against the euro and yen.  The market had been leaning toward three rates hikes in 2022 before news of the new Covid mutation emerged and trimmed the odds.  Powell was renominated for a second term at the helm of the Federal Reserve, Brainard was nominated to be Vice-Chairman.  There is still the Vice-Chair for supervision and an empty governor seat for President to Biden to fill.  In addition to the changes in leadership, the rotation of the voting members of the FOMC brings in a somewhat more hawkish bias next year.   Euro:  In contrast with the US, eurozone growth is set to slow in Q4. After two quarters that growth exceeded 2% quarter-over-quarter, growth is likely to moderate to below 1% in Q4 21 and Q1 22.  Food and energy are driving inflation higher.  The EC continues to negotiate with the UK over changes to the Northern Ireland Protocol.  The dispute over fishing licenses and migrant crossing of the channel are also unresolved sources of tension with the UK. Tensions between the EC and Poland/Hungary over the rule of law, judicial independence, and civil liberties have also not been settled.  As was the case in the spring, Russia's troop and artillery movement threatened Ukraine, though the tension on the Poland/Belarus border has eased.  The ECB's leadership continues to maintain the price pressures are related to the unusual set of circumstances but are ultimately temporary.  Its December 16 meeting, the last one before Bundesbank President Weidmann steps down, is critical. In addition to confirming the end of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program in March 2022, and the expansion of the Asset Purchase Program, the ECB staff will update its inflation forecasts.  The focus here is on the 2023 CPI projection of 1.5%.  There was a push back against it in September, and a slight upward revision is likely. Nevertheless, it will probably remain below the 2% target.  The swaps market is pricing in a 25 bp hike in 2023.   (November indicative closing prices, previous in parentheses)   Spot: $1.1335 ($1.1560) Median Bloomberg One-month Forecast $1.1375 ($1.1579)  One-month forward  $1.1350 ($1.1568)    One-month implied vol  7.1%  (5.1%)         Japanese Yen:  Japan has a new prime minister who has put together a large fiscal stimulus package that will help fuel the economic recovery that had begun getting traction since the formal state of emergency was lifted at the end of September.  After a frustratingly slow start, the inoculation efforts have started bearing fruit, with vaccination rates surpassing the US and many European countries.  Unlike most other high-income countries, Japan continues to experience deflationary pressures.  Food and energy prices may be concealing it in the CPI measure, but the GDP deflator in Q2 and Q3 was  -1.1%. However, the BOJ does not seem inclined to take additional measures and has reduced its equity and bond-buying efforts.  The exchange rate remains sensitive to the movement of the US 10-year note yield, which has chopped mostly between 1.50% and 1.70%. With a couple of exceptions in both directions, the greenback has traded in a JPY113-JPY115 range.  The emergence of the new Covid mutation turned the dollar back after threatening to break higher.  A convincing move above the JPY115.50 area would likely coincide with higher US rates and initially target the JPY118 area.    Spot: JPY113.10 (JPY113.95)       Median Bloomberg One-month Forecast JPY113.30 (JPY112.98)      One-month forward JPY113.00 (JPY113.90)    One-month implied vol  8.2% (6.4%)   British Pound:  Sterling never fully recovered from disappointment that the Bank of England did not hike rates in early November.  Market participants had understood the hawkish rhetoric, including by Governor Bailey, to signal a hike.  The implied yield of the December 2021 short-sterling interest rate futures plummeted by 30 bp by the end of the month, and sterling has not seen $1.36, let alone $1.37, since then.  Indeed, sterling chopped lower and recorded new lows for the year in late November near $1.3200.  Growth in the UK peaked in Q2 at 5.5% as it recovered from the Q1 contraction.  It slowed to a 1.3% pace in Q3 and looks to be slowing a bit more here in Q4.  The petty corruption scandals and ill-conceived speeches by Prime Minister Johnson have seen Labour move ahead in some recent polls.  An election does not need to be called until May 2024, but the flagging support may spur a cabinet reshuffle.  The next important chart point is not until around $1.3165 and then the $1.30 area, which holds primarily psychological significance.       Spot: $1.3300 ($1.3682)    Median Bloomberg One-month Forecast $1.3375 ($1.3691)  One-month forward $1.3315 ($1.3680)   One-month implied vol 7.5% (6.8%)      Canadian Dollar:  The Canadian dollar appreciated by almost 2.4% in October and gave it all back, plus some in November.  Indeed, the loss was sufficient to push it fractionally lower for the year (-0.4%), though it remains the best performing major currency against the US dollar.   The three major drivers of the exchange rate moved against the Canadian dollar last month.  First, its two-year premium over the US narrowed by 17 bp, the most in four years.  Second, the price of January WTI tumbled by around 18.2%.  Commodity prices fell more broadly, and the CRB Index snapped a seven-month rally with a 7.8% decline.  Third, the risk appetites faltered is reflected in the equity markets. The Delta Wave coupled with the new variant may disrupt growth.  Still, the swaps market has a little more than two hikes discounted over the next six months.   The government is winding down its emergency fiscal measures, but the spring budget and election promises mean that the fiscal consolidation next year will be soft.     Spot: CAD1.2775 (CAD 1.2388)  Median Bloomberg One-month Forecast CAD1.2685 (CAD1.2395) One-month forward CAD1.2770 (CAD1.2389)    One-month implied vol 7.2% (6.2%)      Australian Dollar:  The Australian dollar fell by more than 5% last month, slightly less than it did in March 2020.  It did not have an advancing week in November after rallying every week in October.  Australia's two-year premium over the US was chopped to less than 10 bp in November from nearly 28 bp at the end of October.  The Reserve Bank of Australia pushed back against aggressive rate hike speculation.   The unexpected loss of jobs in October for the third consecutive month took a toll on the Australian dollar, which proceeded to trend lower and recorded the low for the year on November 30, slightly below $0.7065.  A break of $0.7050 would initially target $0.7000, but convincing penetration could spur another 2-2.5-cent drop.  The 60-day rolling correlation between- changes in the Australian dollar and the CRB commodity index weakened from over 0.6% in October to below 0.4% in November. The correlation had begun recovering as the month drew to a close.       Spot:  $0.7125 ($0.7518)        Median Bloomberg One-Month Forecast $0.7195 ($0.7409)      One-month forward  $0.7135 ($0.7525)     One-month implied vol 9.7%  (9.1%)        Mexican Peso:  The broadly stronger US dollar and the prospects of more accelerated tapering weighed on emerging market currencies in November, but domestic considerations also weighed on the peso.   The Mexican peso fell by around 4.1%, the most since March 2020.  The economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.4% in Q3.  There is little fiscal support to speak of, while monetary policy is becoming less accommodative too slowly compared with some other emerging markets, such as Brazil.  Price pressures are still accelerating, and the bi-weekly CPI rose above 7% in mid-November. The swaps market discounts nearly a 25 bp hike a month for the next six months.  The government's policies, especially in the energy and service sectors, are not attractive to investors.  President AMLO dealt another blow to investor confidence by retracting the appointment of former Finance Minister Herrera for his deputy to head up the central bank starting in January.  This is seen potentially undermining one of the most credible institutions in Mexico.  Lastly, Mexico's trade balance has deteriorated sharply in recent months and through October has recorded an average monthly trade deficit of nearly $1.2 bln this year.  In the same period, in 2020, it enjoyed an average monthly surplus of almost $2.5 bln, and in the first ten months of 2019, the average monthly trade surplus was a little more than $150 mln.     Spot: MXN21.46 (MXN20.56)   Median Bloomberg One-Month Forecast  MXN21.23 (MXN20.42)   One-month forward  MXN21.60 (MXN20.65)     One-month implied vol 14.9% (9.6%)      Chinese Yuan:  The Chinese yuan has been remarkably stable against the US dollar, and given the greenback's strength, it means the yuan has appreciated sharply on a trade-weighted basis.  Going into the last month of the year, the yuan's 2.6% gain this year is the best in the world.  Chinese officials have signaled their displeasure with what it sees as a one-way market.  At best, it has orchestrated a broadly sideways exchange rate against the dollar, mainly between CNY6.37 and CNY6.40. The lower end of the dollar's range was under pressure as November drew to a close.   Even though the Chinese economy is likely to accelerate from the near-stagnation in Q3 (0.2% quarter-over-quarter GDP), it remains sufficiently weak that the PBOC is expected to consider new stimulative measures.  It last reduced reserves requirements in July, and this seems to be the preferred avenue rather than rate cuts.  Yet, given the interest rate premium (the 10-year yield is around 2.85%), record trade surpluses ($84.5 bln in October), portfolio inflows, and limited outflows, one would normally expect a stronger upward pressure on the exchange rate.    Spot: CNY6.3645 (CNY6.4055) Median Bloomberg One-month Forecast  CNY6.38 (CNY6.4430)  One-month forward CNY6.3860 (CNY6.4230)    One-month implied vol  3.5% (3.5%)    Disclaimer
Considering Portfolios In Times Of, Among Others, Inflation...

Profit-Taking on Dollar Longs after Better than Expected Jobs Report Sets Stage Until CPI

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 08.11.2021 09:57
The US dollar turned in a solid week's performance, rising against most currencies and recording a marginal new high for the year against the euro.  Sterling and the Australian dollar competed for the worst performer.  Both central banks pushed against market expectations for aggressive near-term tightening.  The central banks triggered a short squeeze in the bond market, where 10-year benchmark yields from 10 bp in the US to 34 bp in Italy.  UK 10-year Gilts and French Oats yields fell nearly 22 bp.  Germany lagged with an almost 18 bp decline.  The speculative market had its largest net short Treasury note futures position since March 2020.  It has swung from its largest net long position in four years (~181k contracts) in early October to a net short position of almost 270k as of November 2.  The macro focus shifts back to inflation next week with American and Chinese reports.  Rising inflation in the world's two largest economies may arrest the rally in the bond markets. We anticipated the dollar to move broadly higher this month, and the move we envision does not appear over.  However, important support has been approached in a sharp thrust that has penetrated Bollinger Bands, suggesting some patience may be needed.  The dollar did close relatively softly, especially given the stronger than expected employment report.   Dollar Index: A new high for the year was recorded after the employment report was slightly above 94.60.  The momentum indicators are trending higher, and the five-day moving average crossed back above the 20-day moving average.  Recall that the 94.50 area is (38.2%) retracement of the sell-off since the March 2020 peak (~103).  The high from last September was closer to 94.75, but above there, nothing stands out until the 95.70-96.10 band. Yet ahead of the weekend, it finished poorly and formed a potential bearish shooting star candlestick.  Initial support is seen around 93.80.   Euro:   The single currency was virtually flat last week, but it does not hide the fact that a new low for the year (~$1.1515) was recorded.  The MACD and Slow Stochastic are moving lower, and the price action has been poor.  The $1.1490 area corresponds to the (50%) retracement objective of the rally from the March 2020 low (~$1.0635).  The next retracement (61.8%) is found a little below $1.13.  The euro finished on a firm note near session highs, suggesting scope for some corrective gains at the start of the new week. The new momentum shorts are frustrated with the lack of follow-through and maybe in weak hands.  A close above $1.1620 would lift the technical tone.  Japanese Yen:  The Japanese yen was the strongest of the major currencies, gaining an inconsequential 0.25% against the dollar.  The decline in US rates helped drag the dollar lower against the yen.  In terms of market positioning, short-yen carry trades had become momentum trades, too and the unwind was also supportive of the yen.   The dollar-yen exchange rate continues to track US 10-year yields.  The 10-year yield fell below 1.50% for the first time in a month ahead of the weekend, and the dollar made a new low for the week near JPY113.30.  Recall that in the big picture, we have suggested a range-trading affair between around JPY113.00 and JPY114.50-JPY115.00.  That still seems reasonable.  However, we note the dollar's momentum is flagging, and the five-day moving average slipped below the 20-day for the first time since late September.   The Slow Stochastic and MACD are trending lower.  A break of JPY113.00 signals the next leg down into the JPY112.00-JPY112.50 band.  British Pound: After the Bank of England confounded market expectations, sterling was spanked, falling more than 1% for only the second time this year (the other was on September 28, which arguably was more of a dollar move).  Expectations, partly facilitated by official comments, for tighter monetary policy spurred a roughly 4.3-cent rally in sterling last month.  If the BOE is saying, "sorrow about the mate, you misunderstood the conditionality and our job," it seems only fitting that sterling return to the late-September low near $1.3400.  It did so ahead of the weekend to $1.3425.  Ahead of the weekend, it settled below the lower Bollinger Band for the second consecutive session.  The momentum indicators are still falling. However, it managed to close near session highs, and a potential hammer candlestick may have been formed.  However, if $1.34 does not hold, it is difficult to find much chart support ahead of the $1.3165-$1.3200 area should $1.3400 be convincingly broken.  Canadian Dollar:  The Canadian dollar fared better than the other dollar-bloc currencies but still lost about 0.5% against the US dollar.  Since meeting the head and shoulders objective near CAD1.23, the US dollar has been consolidating and forming a rounded bottom.  The five-day moving average crossed back above the 20-day for the first time in a month.  The greenback finished the week bumping against the 200-day moving average (CAD1.2480), while the momentum indicators suggest there is more to come.  A retracement (38.2%) of the greenback's slide since September 20 high (~CAD1.29) is found near CAD1.2520, and the next retracement (50%) is slightly below the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern (~CAD1.2600).     Australian Dollar:  The Australian dollar's pullback has been more profound than the other majors.  It dropped almost 2.6% from the late October higher (~$0.7555), which was its best level since early July, and retraced half of last month's rally at the pre-weekend low (~$0.7360).  The momentum indicators are still falling, and the five and 20-day moving averages have crossed for the first time in nearly a month.  The next (61.8%) retracement target is closer to $0.7315.  Still, it closed firmly and with a possible bullish hammer candlestick, suggesting a bounce early next week is likely. The $0.7430-$0.7450 area may be the first important hurdle.  The Reserve Bank of Australia, like many other central banks, is emphasizing labor market developments in their forward guidance. Given the gap between what the RBA is saying (no hike likely until 2024) and what the market is saying (the swaps market implies nearly 70 bp of tightening over the next 12 months), next week's October jobs data may have greater impact.  Australia lost almost 285k jobs in August and September amid the lockdown.  A modest recovery is expected. In fact, the worst was probably in August. Full-time positions increased by almost 27k in September.   Mexican Peso:   The peso staged a brilliant recovery last week, but only after first falling to its lowest level since March.  The fall in US rates helped take pressure off the peso and emerging markets more broadly.  The strong US employment report bolstered risk appetites and lifted the JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index, which had been lower on the week, ahead of the data.  The dovish FOMC tapering announcement saw the dollar record a key downside reversal against the peso by reversing lower after making new highs and closing below the previous session's low.  Modest follow-through selling pushed the dollar through the (61.8%) retracement objective (~MXN20.46) of the rally that had begun in late October (from ~MXN20.21), ahead of the FOMC meeting and jobs report.  Before the weekend, it settled at the lows for the week (~MXN20.30).  Initial support is seen near MXN20.20.  The central bank meets next week (November 11).  Most expect a 25 bp hike, but an acceleration in CPI last month ( to be reported on November 9) may boost the risk of a 50 bp move.   Chinese Yuan:  The yuan's 2% gain this year puts it in third place globally, behind the Russian ruble (4.5%) and the Canadian dollar (2.3%).  The yuan has drifted higher in recent weeks.  It has risen for the past three months for a cumulative gain of a little less than 1%.  For the past several weeks, the PBOC consistently set the dollar's reference rate above market expectations (median projection in Bloomberg's survey) but did not do so ahead of the weekend.  Last week the dollar traded quietly within the range seen in the past two weeks.  The dollar recorded four-month lows in October in front of CNY6.38.  Given the official penchant for stability, the issue now is the upper end of the range, and it seems to be CNY6.40-CNY6.41.  Since late September, the dollar has not settled above the 20-day moving average (~CNY6.4075), the middle of the Bollinger Bands.  China's 10-year bond yields peaked in mid-October near 3.05% and last week finished below 2.90% for the first time in several weeks. It is the only country whose 10-year yield has fallen this year (~25 bp).  The October inflation gauges are the market's focus, but trade and lending figures may generate more insight into the economic drivers.   Disclaimer
Markets Calmer, Awaiting Fresh Incentives

Markets Calmer, Awaiting Fresh Incentives

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 08.12.2021 13:51
December 08, 2021  $USD, Bank of Canada, Currency Movement, Germany, India, Japan, Poland, Russia Overview:  The capital markets are calmer today, and the fear that was evident at the end of last week remains mostly scar tissue. Led by gains in Japan, China, Australia, New Zealand, and India, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index extended yesterday's gains.  Europe's Stoxx and US futures are firm.  The US 10-year yield is softer, around 1.43%, while European yields are mostly 1-2 bp lower.  The Norwegian krone and euro lead major currencies higher against the greenback, but the New Zealand dollar and sterling are underperforming. Most of the emerging market currencies are enjoying an upside bias. The Turkish lira is giving back a little more than half of yesterday's 2.25% bounce.  Gold is edging higher and is near the 200-day moving average (~$1792).  January WTI is off $1 around  $71 after rallying around 8% in the past two sessions.  API reported a three million barrel drawdown in inventories but a big jump in Cushing.   US natural gas is consolidating and paring Monday's 11.5% drop.  Europe (Dutch) natural gas prices are rising for the third consecutive session and around 10% this week.  Iron ore has extended this week's rally and is at the highs since October.  Copper is flat.   Asia Pacific Australia has joined the US in the diplomat boycott of the winter Olympics in Beijing.  South Korea and Japan have not formally decided yet.  China's quarantine policies made it difficult for many diplomats to attend in any event, and many apparently will not attend.  Beijing threatens unspecified retaliation.   Japan reported an increase in its October current account, rising to JPY1.18 trillion from JPY1.03 trillion in September.  The swing in the trade balance from a JPY230 bln deficit to a JPY167 bln surplus more than accounted for it.  Japan also revised Q3 GDP to a 0.9% contraction (from -0.8%).  The composition changed.  Consumption was a greater drag (-1.3% quarter-over-quarter rather than -1.1%), and inventories contributed less (0.1% vs. 0.3%) and net exports were flat (rather than contribute 0.1 percentage points).  Business investment was less a drag (-2.3% vs. -3.8%).  Still, there is reason to be more optimistic about the outlook for the world's third-largest economy.  Social restrictions have eased, the vaccination rate is among the best, and the government is providing fresh stimulus.  The Kishida government is expected to finalize its fiscal efforts toward the end of the week. A key issue is the tax incentive (subsidy) for companies that boost wages by 3%, which has not happened since 1997.   India left its key rate corridor on hold today.  The repo rate is 4%, and the reverse repo rate is 3.35%.  Some observers saw the possibility of a hike in the reverse repo rate.  The monetary policy committee voted unanimously to keep the repo rate steady.  The reverse repo rate is a broader issue decided by the central bank, not the MPC.  The emergence of Omicron may have encouraged the central bank to maintain a steady hand, while the cut in the excise duty and VAT for petrol and diesel may help ease price pressures.  It made some technical changes in its liquidity management, which some see as a prelude to a hike in February 2022, when the central bank meets again.   The dollar is consolidating in a narrow 30-point range above JPY113.35 against the Japanese yen.  Yesterday's high was just below JPY113.80.  An option for about $550 mln will roll off today at JPY114.25, while there is a nearly $1.5 bln option at JPY114.00 that expires tomorrow.  The JPY114 area also holds the 20-day moving average, which the dollar has not closed above since November 25. The Australian dollar began the week flirting with the $0.7000 area.  It is rising for its third consecutive session and has reached almost $0.7145 today.  Last week's highs were set a little above $0.7170.  Despite words of caution by Chinese officials and the cut in reserve requirements, the yuan continues to march higher.  It is at new three-year highs today.  The dollar has been sold down to almost CNY6.3455.  Local dollar bonds and bonds below investment grade have rallied as officials signal a focus on supporting the economy.  Today the rate for re-lending to rural and small businesses was cut by 25 bp.  The PBOC has also been generous with its liquidity provisions.  The reference rate for the dollar was set at CNY6.3677, a little firmer than expected (CNY6.3665, Bloomberg survey).    Europe An era is formally over today as Germany's new government takes office.  The challenges it faces are profound.  The virus was surging even before the Omicron variant was detected.  The economy has been hobbled.  Inflation is high (6% on the harmonized measure in November) and without the fiscal stimulus seen in the US, where CPI is up 6.2% from a year ago (October).  This year, the German deficit is estimated to be about 5.8% and seen falling to 2.5% next year.  The US deficit is around 12.5% this year and is expected to fall to around 6.5% in 2022. Russia is amassing troops, and fears that it will invade Ukraine early next year are running high.  Germany reportedly will nix the controversial Nord Stream II pipeline if Russia carries through with its threat as part of the economic sanctions being considered.  Italy's Draghi has had a bit of a honeymoon, but that will change.  Two of the three largest unions will strike on December 16 to protest Draghi's budget, which must be passed by the end of the month.   Moreover, the selection of a new Italian president in January may mark the beginning of the political process that will lead to a new parliamentary election by the middle of 2023.  The president of Itlay is chosen by the Italian Parliament and regional representatives.  The current president, Mattarella, has declined to run for a second term.  Draghi does lead any political party, but the latest surveys show the center-left Democratic Party is in first place, polling a couple percentage points higher than it got in the last election at 21.4% support.  The Brothers of Italy on the right are in second place with slightly less than 20% support.  The Five Star Movement has seen its fortunes slip to about 15%.  Poland's central bank is set to hike its base rate today.  It will be the third consecutive increase.  The base rate was slashed from 1.50% last year to 10 bp.  It was hiked by 40 bp in October and 75 bp last month to stand at 1.25%. The headline CPI surged from 2.4% at the end of last year to 7.7% in November. Czech and Hungary have been more aggressive in raising rates.  Last month, Czech's central bank delivered a 125 bp increase to lift its key two-week repo rate to 2.75%.   It was at 25 bp to start the year.  Its CPI is near 6%.  Hungary has raised its base rate every month since June and taken it from 60 bp to 2.10%.  It has also taken its one-week deposit rate from 75 bp to 3.10%, with 130 bp delivered in the past three weeks. Earlier today, it reported that CPI rose to 7.4% last month from 6.5%.  Most look for a 50 bp increase from Poland's central bank today.   The euro briefly dipped below $1.1230 yesterday but recovered in the North American afternoon.  It is extending the recovery today and traded $1.1300 in the European morning.  The $1.1310-$1.1320 offers nearby resistance.  The UK government is being embarrassed by reports about its holiday party a year ago in violation of the social restrictions in place at the time.  It adds to the sleaze factor that has weakened it.  The latest polls show that the Labour Party is extending its lead.  Also, ideas that the BOE could raise rates next week have diminished and been pushed into next February.  Sterling is heavy, near $1.3200.  We have warned of near-term risk toward $1.3165, the (38.2%) retracement objective of the rally from the March 2020 low near $1.14.   America A deal appears in the works to lift the US debt ceiling.  The maneuver requires 60 votes to allow the debt ceiling to pass with a simple majority.  The Republican leadership appears willing to go along with this.  It will likely set a new precedent that will be used and possibly expanded when control of Congress changes.  PredictIt.Org shows that the Republicans are favored to win control of both houses in next year's mid-term election.   The US calendar today features the JOLTS report on job openings.  The week's highlight, the November CPI, is out on Friday, and both the headline and core rates are expected to accelerate.  Fed officials are in the blackout period ahead of next week's FOMC meeting.  Today's North American feature is the Bank of Canada meeting.  No one expects a change in rates.  It is more about the rhetoric.  Despite the uncertainty surrounding the Omicron variant, Bank of Canada officials are likely to be more confident about the strength of the recovery.  Last week's jobs data adds to the positive impulses.  Moreover, the government is providing more fiscal support.  The biggest challenge is that the market has discounted five hikes over the next 12 months.  This is aggressive and difficult for the central bank to get ahead of market expectations. Even after the strong Canadian jobs data at the end of last week, the US dollar closed firmly above CAD1.28, showing the Loonie's vulnerability to the risk-off wave.  However, as cooler heads have prevailed, the Canadian dollar has bounced back.  The US dollar closed below the 20-day moving average yesterday (~CAD1.2670) for the first time in a month and was sold to about CAD1.2620 today. The (38.2%) retracement of the greenback's rally since the October 21 low (below CAD1.23) is found near CAD1.2640. The next retracement (50%) is around CAD1.2570.  Initial resistance now is likely by CAD1.2680.  The greenback also closed below its 20-day moving average against the Mexican peso yesterday for the first time since November 9.  It has slipped below MN21.00 today for the first time in about two-and-a-half weeks.  With today's loss, the US dollar has retraced (61.8%) of its rally from November 9 low (~MXN20.2750). The move seems exaggerated, and consolidation is likely.  Nearby resistance is seen in the MXN20.05-MXN20.10 area.  Disclaimer
Dollar Starts the Week Bid ahead of the FOMC

Dollar Starts the Week Bid ahead of the FOMC

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 13.12.2021 13:44
December 13, 2021  $USD, Australia, Canada, China, Currency Movement, FOMC, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, Switzerland, Turkey, UK   Overview: Equities, bonds, and the dollar begin the new week on a firm note.  Japanese, Chinese, Australian, and New Zealand equities advanced in the Asia Pacific region.  Europe's Stoxx 600 is snapping a three-day decline, and US futures are 0.25%-0.35% higher.  The US 10-year yield is a little softer at 1.48%. European benchmark yields are mostly 1-2 bp lower, and near 0.71%, the UK Gilt's yield is at a three-month low.  The dollar is rising against all the major currencies and is 0.3%-0.45% higher against most.  The Canadian dollar and sterling are the most resilient.  Among emerging market currencies, the Chinese yuan continues to defy official signals to eke out a small gain.  The Turkish lira is off more than 2%, after having dropped 4% initially. Intervention at the end of last week failed to have a lasting impact, and the central bank is expected to cut rates again later this week.  The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is giving back last week's 0.2% gain plus more today.  It was the first weekly gain in five weeks.  Gold is quiet in the upper end of the pre-weekend range, holding above $1780.  January WTI is firm but capped near the 20-day moving average (~$72.80).  US natgas is firm after falling 5% last week.  Dutch gas is up 8% to new two-month highs.  It has a six-week rally in tow, during which time it has gained a little more than 60%.  Industrial metals are higher too.  Iron ore snapped a three-day air pocket and gained it all back and more with its 6.5% rally today.  Copper has steadied after falling almost 2.5% in the last two sessions.   Asia Pacific The results of Japan's Tankan survey were in line with the talk we have picked up that while the new government, vaccination efforts, and fiscal stimulus are helping fuel the economic recovery, businesses are not yet convinced that significant change is taking place.  Sentiment among large manufacturers was steady at 18, and the outlook ticked lower.  The improvement in sentiment among the large non-manufacturers was more pronounced (9 vs. 2). However, the outlook was subdued at 8 (from 3).  Capex plans from the large businesses were softer than expected at 9.3% (from 10.1%).  Sentiment among the small companies improved, but the diffusion index and the outlook remained negative.  South Korea reported strong traded numbers for the first ten days of December (exports 20.4% and imports 42.3% year-over-year).  Seoul was busy.  Its foreign minister met with high Japanese counterpart on the sidelines of the G7 meeting and struck a cooperative tone. South Korea's President Moon met with Australia's Prime Minister Morrison and struck a A$1 bln weapon deal for self-propelled howitzers (which have already been purchased by other countries, including India and Turkey).  South Korea, however, will not be participating in the diplomatic boycott of the Winter Olympics, citing the need for Beijing's cooperation to denuclearize the peninsula.   The US dollar remains within its recent range against the Japanese yen (~JPY113.20-JPY113.95).  The 20-day moving average is at the top of the range, and it has not traded above it this month yet.  An option for almost $400 mln at JPY114.00 expires today.  It is the fifth session that the dollar has not traded below JPY113.20.  The Australian dollar's rally stalled near $0.7185 last week and is testing the lower end of its three-day range (~$0.7130) in the European morning.  Support is seen in the $0.7090-$0.7115 area.  The highlight of the week is the November jobs report, which is expected to show a strong bounce after three months of Covid-related declines.  More problems among China's property developers and activity in the manufacturing hub in Zhejiang were suspended due to an outbreak of the virus that failed to trigger a retreat in the yuan.  The dollar spent most of the local session below the pre-weekend low (~CNY6.3615).  The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at CNY6.3669.  The market (Bloomberg survey) expected CNY6.3649.   Europe The UK appeared to make two concessions over the weekend.  First, it signaled that it was no longer seeking to exclude a role for the European Court of Justice in enforcing the Northern Ireland protocol.  Second, new fishing licenses were made available to the EU and French fishers. Jersey and the UK issued another 23 licenses, and although Paris was seeking more, it seemed sufficient to de-escalate the situation.   The UK government is under pressure from many sides.  The "partygate" scandal is a culmination of miscues by the Prime Minister, who has struggled with a Peppa Pig speech and a Kermit the Frog speech at the UN.  Several petty sleaze scandals have also marred the government.  Recent polls put Labour ahead of the Conservatives. This Thursday, the special election could see the Tories defeated in a traditional stronghold (ie Lib-Dems a protest vote for disenchanted Tories?).  The UK's stance toward the EU and the risk to the Good Friday Agreement have estranged the US government to some extent, which has not lifted Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs and put much energy into a free-trade agreement between the two special allies.   Turkey reported a large than expected October current account surplus ($3.16 bln) current account surplus.  While the currency's sharp depreciation would be expected to help the trade account, it also scares international investors.  It reported a net outflow of $2.2 bln portfolio capital in October.  Industrial output surprised on the upside in October, rising by 0.6%.  Economists (Bloomberg survey) expected a 0.1% decline after a 1.5% fall in September.  Turkey appeared to intervene in the foreign exchange market at the end of last week.  The dollar held below TRY14 but jumped to almost TRY14.76 today before pulling back.  The Swiss National Bank also looks like it intervened last week.  The euro held above CHF1.04 after having been sold to about CHF1.0375 earlier this month, its lowest level since July 2015.  Swiss domestic sight deposits rose by CHF1.12 bln, the biggest increase in three weeks.  Note that after buying euros against the franc, the SNB is believed to sell euros for dollars to maintain the allocation of its reserves.  The euro peaked last week near $1.1355.  It has been sold to a four-day low of $1.1260 today.    There is an option for 1.44 bln euros at $1.1250 that expires today.  The low for the year was set on November 24 near $1.1185, while last week's low was slightly below $1.1230.  With diverging impulses expected from the Fed and ECB this week, the euro looks vulnerable.  Sterling closed on its highs before the weekend and is on the defensive today.  The market appears to be absorbing bids that might be related to the expiration of a couple of options today (~GBP500 mln at $1.3235 and ~GBP560 mln at $1.3200).  The low for the year was set last week (December 8) near $1.3165, but initial support today is around $1.3220.  The odds of a BOE rate hike later this week have fallen to less than a 1 in 5 chance.   America The highlight of the week is the FOMC meeting.  Nearly everyone expects the Fed to accelerate its tapering and for individual forecasts to shift, matching the more hawkish rhetoric seen since the October CPI print jumped above 6% (November 10).  November's CPI, reported at the end of last week, accelerated to 6.8%.  Before we get to the FOMC meeting, though, this US reports PPI (the heading is expected to accelerate above 9% and the core above 7%) and November retail sales (a solid gain is anticipated of around 0.8% but off the heady 1.7% pace seen in October).  After the mid-week FOMC meeting conclusion, the US reports November housing starts, industrial production, and the Philly Fed's December survey.  The preliminary December PMI estimates are also due Thursday.  The week's data highlight for Canada is the mid-week estimate of November CPI.  Prices may have edged up by 0.2% on the month, but the year-over-year rate is expected to be little changed from the 4.7% pace seen in October.  The underlying measures may have edged up a little.  Price pressures are elevated but do not appear to be accelerating, as seen in the US.  Tomorrow, the new central bank mandate will be announced.  The mandate is reviewed every five years.  The press reports that the 2% inflation target will be retained, but the mandate may include a component of the labor market as it takes what is expected to be a small step toward a dual mandate like the Fed's.   Mexico's central bank meets on Thursday.  It is widely expected to lift the overnight rate target by 25 bp to 5.25%. In Bloomberg's survey of  17 economists, three forecast a 50 bp hike.  It would be the fourth hike in the cycle that began in August.  Chile and Colombia's central banks also are expected to hike rates this week.  Chile, which hiked by 125 bp in October after a 75 bp increase in August, is expected to make another 125 bp adjustment tomorrow.  It would lift the policy rate to 4%. It holds the second round of its presidential election on December 19.  Colombia's central bank meets on December 17.  A 50 bp increase would lift the repo rate to 3.0%.  The first increase in the cycle was 75 bp in October (to 2.5%).  November's CPI was a little above 5.25%.   The US dollar is rising against the Canadian dollar for the fourth consecutive session.  It is poking above CAD1.2750 in the European morning, where an option for almost $450 mln expires today (and another for $515 mln expires tomorrow).  A convincing move above CAD1.2760 could retarget the month's high (~CAD1.2855).  The market has 125 bp of hikes discounted over the next 12 months, but little new encouragement from the central bank.  The greenback fell against the peso in four of last week's five sessions.  It is little changed today, trading above the pre-weekend low (~MXN20.8430).  The next support area is seen closer to MXN20.70.  Still, the market is likely to be cautious extending short US dollar positions ahead of the Fed.   Disclaimer
AUDUSD, USDCHF and EURJPY status explained

AUDUSD, USDCHF and EURJPY status explained

John Benjamin John Benjamin 28.12.2021 08:43
AUDUSD falls back for support The Australian dollar pulls back as risk assets tread water amid low liquidity. A break above the previous high at 0.7220 reveals a strong bullish bias. However, the RSI’s repeatedly overbought situation may have prompted short-term buyers to take some chips off the table. In turn, this left price action vulnerable to retracement. 0.7200 is the closest support. Its breach would trigger a deeper correction towards 0.7120. A close above 0.7250 may resume the reversal and carry the Aussie to the daily resistance at 0.7360. USDCHF tests consolidation range The US dollar softens over weaker Treasury yields. The pair’s latest rebound has met aggressive selling at the upper bound of the consolidation range near 0.9250. That is a sign of lingering bearish pressure. The greenback is testing the lower bound near 0.9160. Range traders were eager to buy the dip as the RSI ventured into the oversold zone. 0.9210 is an intermediate hurdle leading to the upper limit where a breakout could trigger a bullish reversal towards 0.9350. Otherwise, a drop below 0.9160 may send the pair to 0.9100. EURJPY breaks higher The Japanese yen weakened after Japan’s jobless rate rose to 2.8% in November. The long side has gained the upper hand after they pushed above 129.60. A bullish MA cross following a brief consolidation indicates an acceleration in the upward momentum. A break above the psychological level of 130.00 would set 130.60 as the next target, clearing the path for a rally to 131.30. An overbought RSI may cause a temporary pullback. 129.20 from the previous supply zone has become a fresh support.
Quiet Start to New Year

Quiet Start to New Year

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 03.01.2022 14:10
January 03, 2022  $USD, autos, Canada, China, Currency Movement, Inflation, jobs, Mexico, PMI, Trade Overview:  The New Year begins slowly.  Japan, mainland China, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK markets remain closed.  While Hong Kong shares traded heavily, Taiwan, South Korea, and India moved higher.  Led by consumer discretionary and staple sectors, Europe's Stoxx 600 is up about 0.6%.  US futures are 0.4%-0.6% higher.  European yields have drifted lower, with the periphery doing bettter than the core.   The US 10-year yield will begin the local session at 1.51%.  The dollar is mostly firmer, after weakening broadly at the end of last year.   The Norwegian krone and New Zealand dollar are the most resilient,  while the Canadian dollar is off nearly 0.3% to pare the year-end gains, followed by the euro, which is in the middle of its $1.1335-$1.1380 range.  The greenback is holding above JPY115.00.  Emerging market currencies are mixed but mostly softer.  Higher than expected inflation is weighing on the Turkish lira. The South Korean won leads the other softer EM currencies. It is off about 0.25%.  The South African rand (~0.7%) and Russian ruble (0.5%) lead the advancers.  The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index rose by about 2.5% in the last two weeks of 2021 and is slightly firmer today (~0.2%).  Iron ore is higher for the third consecutive session and rallied more than 45% from the middle of November through Xmas, before falling 5.3% last week.  Copper has a four-week 4.6% rally in tow but is slightly softer today.  Gold is stalling near $1830, the (61.8%) retracement of its sell-off from $1880 mid-November high.  Oil rallied for the last two weeks, with February WTI gaining about 6.2%.  OPEC+ meets tomorrow and WTI is up a nearly 1.5% to push above $76.  US natural gas gained slightly more than 1% in the past two weeks and is hovering around little changed level.  Recall that diverted shipments from the US and Asia to Europe saw natural gas prices collapse from above 180 euros on December 21 to 65.5 euros at the end of last week.   Asia Pacific China's property developers remain in the spotlight. Bloomberg estimates that the sector's debt servicing costs, including deferred wages, and maturing obligations are at $197 bln this month.  Evergrande shares were suspended in Hong Kong.  When the problems, bubbling below the surface for some time, emerged last September, global risk appetites were shaken, and many observers made comparisons to the Great Financial Crisis.  However, so far, the problems seem localized and unlike the US and Europe, new lending has not frozen.   The macro data highlights include China's Caixin PMI after the official one surprised on the upside. The preliminary PMIs for Australia and Japan steal the thunder from the final report. Japan's weekly MOF report on portfolio flows may be noteworthy. Foreign investors have been on a buying spree, buying the most Japanese bonds over the first three weeks of December in at least 20 years.   The dollar has risen for the past four weeks against the Japanese yen.  It closed the last two sessions slightly above JPY115.00 and remains above it today.  Recall, last year's high, set in late November, was near JPY115.50.  Today's high thus far is about JPY115.35.  The market may be reluctant to push the dollar much higher before Tokyo returns.  The Australian dollar advanced almost 2% in the second half of December.  It is stalling near the (50%) retracement of its decline from around $0.7555 in late October, found close to $0.7275.  Support is ahead of $0.7200.  Thin trading on New Year's Eve saw the dollar plunge to its low for the year near CNY6.34 before settling slightly above CNY6.3560.  Chinese officials have signaled their desire to avoid further yuan appreciation. If the divergence of monetary policy and higher fx reserve requirements are not sufficient, investors must be wary that other tools can be deployed.   Europe The uptick in Germany's December manufacturing PMI was revised away, leaving it unchanged from November at 57.4.  The flash estimate put it at 57.9.  In contrast, the French reading was revised up to 55.6 from 54.9.  This pared the decline from 55.9 in November.   Italy's manufacturing PMI held in better than expected, slipping to 62.0 from 62.8, the post-Covid high.  Spain, on the other hand, disappointed, with its manufacturing PMI falling to 56.2 from 57.1, its lowest since last February.  The net result was the flash aggregate estimate of 58.0 was sustained (58.4 in November).   The final Eurozone aggregate PMI is of passing interest. The main takeaway from the preliminary estimate continues to resonate:  the economic activity was slowing. The flash estimate put the composite at 53.4 (down from 55.4), the lowest since March. It has risen once in the last five months. More notable for the market will be the preliminary estimate of December inflation. Consumer prices are expected to have stabilized after reaching 4.9% year-over-year in November (2.6% core).   The Turkish government has tried to absorb the currency-risk that it has unleashed by forcing the central bank to cut key interest rates by 500 bp since mid-September.  It managed to spur a powerful short-covering squeeze in the lira, which saw the dollar fall from around TRY18.36 on December 20 to nearly TRY10.25 on December 23.  The greenback recovered to nearly TRY14.00 today, its sixth consecutive advance.  Today's CPI report blew away expectations.  Just in the month of December, Turkish consumer prices jumped nearly 13.6%.  This sent the year-over-year rate to almost 36.1%.  The core rate rose about 31.9% year-over-year.  Short covering helped lifted the euro a little more than 1.1% over the past two weeks.  It reached about $1.1385 on New Year's Eve.  It has not traded above $1.14 since mid-February.  Ahead of this week's two key economic reports (EMU CPI and US employment), the market may not have the conviction necessary to extend its year-end gains.  Sterling gained about 2.1% in the last two weeks.  It reached $1.3550 at the end of last week, its best level since mid-November.  It is little changed today.  The $1.3575 area corresponds to the (50%) retracement of its sell-off from $1.3835 area in late October.  Initial support is seen in the $1.3455-$1.3465 area.   America The US economic diary is jammed packed to begin the New Year. The highlight is the jobs report at the end of the week. The median forecast (Bloomberg survey) calls for a 400k increase after being disappointed with the 210k increase in November. The unemployment rate is expected to ease to 4.1% from 4.2%, and average earnings growth likely moderated. At the end of last year, an article in the Financial Times made two important observations. First, the uniqueness of the covid-impact renders seasonal adjustments suspect. The response rate was less than two-thirds, the lowest for the month of November in more than a decade. In November, the raw establishment survey showed a 778k gain in nonfarm payrolls, but the BLS adjustment cut a record 568k. Second, also complicating the data is the participation by businesses. The response rate was less than two-thirds, the lowest for the month of November in more than a decade.   The monthly auto sales report seems under-appreciated as a broad economic indicator. The supply chain disruptions depressed auto production and, in turn, auto consumption (not just in the US). However, late in the year, there seemed to be some improvement. The median forecast (Bloomberg survey) December US auto sales (seasonally adjusted annual rate) at 13.1 mln, which would then be the most since July. Elsewhere, the preliminary goods trade balance, like the flash PMI, is the real new news. The final reading tends not to be very meaningful. In any event, the trade deficit will widen considerably. The goods deficit widened to a record $97.8 bln from $83.2 bln.   Lastly, the FOMC minutes will be looked at especially for clues about the timing of the first hike. March? It is unreasonable to expect Canada to match the nearly 154k job increase reported for November. The median forecast is 25k. Canada also reports November trade figures. Canada's trade balance has steadily improved since March 2020, and the 12-month moving average through October was the highest in around six years. The swaps market has a little more than half of the first hike (25 bp) priced in at the January 26 Bank of Canada meeting.   Mexico's data highlights include worker remittances, which could be the most important source of private capital inflows. Without meaningful fiscal support and in the face of tightening monetary policy, the economy lacks much momentum. The December CPI is expected to have edged higher toward 7.5%. Monetary policy is where the drama will be as the new central bank governor takes the reins (Rodriguez). The 50 bp hike in December lifted the overnight target to 5.5%. If the market is concerned about a policy mistake or possible erosion of its independence, you would not know it from looking at the peso. It was the strongest currency in the world in December, rising almost 4.5% against the dollar.   The Canadian dollar rallied about 2% over the past two weeks.  This saw the US dollar retrace half of its rally from the mid-October low below CAD1.23 that peaked on December 20 by CAD1.2965.  That retracement came it near CAD1.2625.  The momentum indicators are still headed down, but the greenback is recovering today.  Initial resistance is seen around CAD1.2700.  A move above CAD1.2750 warns that a low may be in place.  The Mexican peso has rallied for the past five weeks, and despite the poor close at the end of the year, it is bid today.  The US dollar was sold from near MXN20.55 to MXN20.45 in the European morning but has found a bid near midday.  The low from New Year's Eve was set around MXN20.3070 and the 200-day moving average is closer to MXN20.27.    Disclaimer
Considering Portfolios In Times Of, Among Others, Inflation...

Dollar Eases

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 05.01.2022 13:19
January 05, 2022  $USD, auto sales, Currency Movement, Omicron, PMI, technology Overview:  The tech sell-off in the US yesterday, ostensibly driven by higher rates, carried over into trading today.  South Korea, China, and Hong Kong led the regional sell-off.  News that China's zero Covid tolerance led to a lockdown of the city of Xian with a population of around 13 mln played on fears of more supply chain disruptions.  A second city, Yuzhou, considerably smaller, has also been lockdown.  Japan, India, and several smaller markets gain.  European bourses, where tech is less prominent have edged higher and the Stoxx 600 is extending its gain for the third consecutive session.  US futures are softer.  Asia and most European bonds yields have risen today, while the US 10-year is steady around 1.64%.  Of note, with Italian politics rising as an issue ahead of the presidential contest later this month, maybe helping lift the 10-year BTP to new six-month highs near 1.22%.  The US dollar is seeing its recent gains trimmed against the major currencies.  The Japanese yen is recovering a little after falling to five-year lows yesterday.  The Canadian dollar is the laggard today, amid a sell-off in its bonds.   The emerging market currency complex is mixed, and the JP Morgan EM FX index is recouping about half of yesterday's 0.35% loss.  Gold is firm but remains within Monday's range (~$1798.50-$1832). Among the industrial metals we monitor, iron ore bounced back after yesterday's minor loss and is at its best level since Xmas eve.  Copper is being turned back after yesterday's rally stalled near the $448 cap.  Crude oil is consolidating yesterday's gain and February WTI is near $77.00.  US LNG firm but within the $3.50-$4.00 range, while European (Dutch) is extending yesterday's dramatic gain (31.6%). Asia Pacific While China has moved quickly to impose lockdowns where cases of the virus appear, the tech sector is off to a poor start.  The Heng Seng Tech Index fell 4.6% today, the most since July, and the third consecutive drop.  Tencent is reducing its investments, and this took a toll on companies it backed.  Some link Tencent decision to Beijing's push against anti-competitive practices.  The NASDAQ Golden Dragon Index, which tracks Chinese lists companies fell 4.3% yesterday.  The tech sell-off was also clear in the US where the NASDAQ shed 1.3%.   Japan's "Mothers" gauge weighted toward small and medium-sized software and technology companies fell 5% to its lowest level since May 2020.  In the last hours of trading, after HK tightened social restrictions, the equity loss intensified.   Japan reported that December auto sales were 10.2% lower than a year ago.  Yesterday, the US reported disappointing December auto sales.  Auto sales were expected to have risen to their best level since August but instead fell to a 12.44 mln unit annual pace.  It was the lowest since September and reflects a 23.6% decline from December 2020.  Last year, US auto sales averaged 14.93 mln a month compared with 14.41 mln in 2020 and 16.91 mln in 2019.  Although supply is argued to be a bigger problem than demand, some producers, like GM, have reported a substantial rebuilding of inventories.   The dollar closed above JPY116.00 yesterday but has failed to sustain the upside momentum.  It peaked near JPY116.35 and is approaching support at the previous resistance around JPY115.50.  A break of JPY115.00, which seems unlikely ahead of the US jobs data on Friday, would lend credence to the idea that it was a false breakout.  The Australian dollar is firm near $0.7250 after recovering from the dip below $0.7200.  Still, it needs to resurface above $0.7275-$0.7280 to be notable.  We suspect the Aussie will pullback in North America and see initial support around $0.7220.  Outside of the dramatic year-end session, the Chinese yuan continues to trade quietly in a well-worn range.  The dollar continues to trade mostly between CNY6.3660 and CNY6.3830.  The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at CNY6.3779.  The (Bloomberg) survey found a median expectation for CNY6.3773.  Note that offshore yuan (CNH) swaps/forward points are at their lowest level since April 2020 amid reports that overseas branches of state-owned banks are continuing to lend out CNH.  Lastly, we note that the China Securities Journal plays up the possibility that the PBOC eases policy ahead of the Spring Festival holiday (January 31).   Europe The main economic news from the eurozone today is the final reading of the December service and composite PMI.  The takeaway is that it is a little softer than the preliminary estimate.  On the aggregate level, the service PMI eased to 53.1 from 53.3 flash estimate and 55.9 in November.  The composite eased from 55.4 in November to 53.4 preliminary estimate and 53.3 final.  It is the lowest since March and is the fourth decline in five months.  While the German services PMI was revised higher, it remains below 50 boom/bust (48.7) and this coupled with the weakness in manufacturing saw the composite revised to 49.9 from 50.0 initially and 52.2 in November.  It is the weakest composite reading since June 2020.   France's service PMI slipped to 57.0 from the 57.1 flash reading and 57.4 in November.  The composite was revised higher to 55.8 from 55.6.  It stood at 56.1 previously.  Italy and Spain disappointed with readings of both the service and composite below expectations.  The Italian composite stands at 54.7 down from 57.6.  Spain's composite is at 55.4 from 57.6 in November.   Intervention by the Swiss National Bank draws attention as the euro traded at six-year lows at the end of last year.  Sight deposits rose by CHF3.37 bln in December after CHF2.27 bln and CHF2.57 bln in November and October, respectively.  Overall, sight deposits rose by CHF18.85 bln in 2021 after surging CHF119.3 bln in 2020.  Denmark also anchors its monetary policy in the exchange rate peg to the euro.  Its central bank sold DKK47 bln (~$7.1 bln) in December to defend the peg.  It was the largest intervention in seven years.  Although inflation is running a little below 4%, there is some speculation that the Danish central bank may have to cut rates as its next defense of the peg.   The euro is trading inside yesterday's (~$1.1270-$1.1320) range.  It is difficult for bulls or bears to find much to like with it hovering around the middle of the two-cent range that has confined it for nearly two months.  The 480 mln euro option at $1.1290 that expires today has likely been neutralized, but there are options at $1.1275 for 1.3 bln euros that expires tomorrow that may be in play still.  Sterling is steady at the upper end of yesterday's range when it briefly poked above $1.3555.  It is the highest it has been since November 10.  An option for GBP375 mln at $1.3505 expires tomorrow.  Initial support is seen near $1.3520, and a break could test support in the $1.3480-$1.3500 area.   America ADP 's private sector jobs estimate is the early feature in the US today.  The median estimate (Bloomberg survey) is for an increase of 410k after 534k in November.  The final PMI will likely draw little attention.  The FOMC minutes from last month's meeting, at which officials announced the acceleration of tapering will be looked upon for insight into the Fed's balance sheet and any signal that it may allow maturing issues to roll-off soon.  Besides the rate hikes, for which the market has priced in three this year, the balance sheet is quickly emerging as the new focus.   Also, on tap today is the EIA inventory data.  The API reportedly showed a large rise in gasoline inventories but another drop (6.4 mln barrels) in crude stocks.   Canada's build permits are not typically a market mover.  Tomorrow it reports the November trade balance, and the highlight is Friday's jobs data.  It is difficult to envision a report as strong as November’s nearly 154k increase.  Proportionately, it would be as if the US nonfarm payrolls rose by around 1.7 mln.  Mexico reports December domestic auto sales.  In November, its auto sales were off about 13.5% year-over-year.  The highlight of the week is Friday's CPI figures.  The year-over-year pace is expected to have edged up from 7.37% in November.   The US dollar is trading inside yesterday's range against the Canadian dollar (~CAD1.2665-CAD1.2765), which was inside Monday's range (~CAD1.2630-CAD1.2780).  It is trading around CAD1.2720 near midday in London.  The intraday technical indicators seem to favor a retest of the greenback's highs.  The US dollar's performance against the Mexican peso is similar.  It is inside yesterday's range, which was inside Monday's range (~MXN20.41-MXN20.65).  The US dollar looks soft and could test the December 31 low near MXN20.33.   The 200-day moving average is near MXN20.27 and the greenback has not traded below it in a little more than two months.    Disclaimer
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Consolidates

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Consolidates

John Benjamin John Benjamin 11.01.2022 08:57
AUDUSD attempts reboundThe Australian dollar bounces back over strong retail sales in November. The pair saw bids near a previous trough (0.7130).The RSI’s double-dip into the oversold area attracted some traders in taking up the bargain. A bullish RSI divergence suggests a deceleration in the downward momentum. And a jump above 0.7180 could be the first step towards a bounce.The Aussie may surge to the daily resistance at 0.7360 if buyers succeed in lifting offers around 0.7270. Otherwise, the price could test the critical floor at 0.7080.USDJPY tests supportThe Japanese yen rose as risk appetite fades across markets.A bullish MA cross on the daily chart indicates that the dollar’s rally gained traction. However, an overbought RSI means that a pullback could be an opportunity for the bulls to buy dips.The dollar is testing the psychological level of 115.00, the origin of the rally above the November peak (115.50). An oversold RSI has brought in some buying interest. A bearish breakout could trigger a correction to 114.30. Then, the bulls will need to reclaim 115.90 in order to resume the uptrend.US 30 continues to retreatThe Dow Jones tumbled as US Treasury yields hit a two-year high on hike bets.A bearish RSI divergence foreshadowed the current sell-off. A drop below 36300 prompted leveraged positions to close out, driving up volatility as short-term sentiment deteriorated. Rebounds could be opportunities for the bears to sell into strength.35700 is an area of interest, as it lies in a former supply zone and along the 30-day moving average. 35200 would be a second layer of support, while 36400 is the immediate resistance.
USDJPY Chart Looks Alike A Stable One, GBPUSD Resembles A Hillock

USDJPY Chart Looks Alike A Stable One, GBPUSD Resembles A Hillock

John Benjamin John Benjamin 19.01.2022 09:01
GBPUSD falls into correction The sterling fell back after a slowdown in Britain’s wage growth in November. Sentiment favors the pound after it rallied above the daily resistance at 1.3700. However, an overbought RSI has cut back buyers’ appetite. A break below 1.3630 has prompted some traders to take profit, driving down the price. As the RSI dips into the oversold zone, 1.3570 is the next support. A bearish breakout would send the pair to 1.3480 which sits on the 30-day moving average. 1.3660 is the immediate resistance when a rebound takes shape. USDJPY struggles to bounce The yen softened after the Bank of Japan signaled no shift in its ultra-loose monetary policy. The US dollar bounced off the critical floor at 113.50 from the daily chart. A bullish RSI divergence revealed a deceleration in the downward impetus. The indicator’s oversold situation also attracted a number of bargain hunters. A break above 114.70 suggests a strong interest in keeping the correction in check. 115.50 from the latest sell-off is a major hurdle and its breach could extend the rally to the recent peak at 116.30. SPX 500 to test daily support The S&P 500 extended losses over rising rate worries. The fall below 4640 invalidates the latest rebound and indicates that sentiment is still downbeat. Below the psychological level of 4600, 4540 is a key support near last December’s lows on the daily chart. A bearish breakout would trigger a deeper correction towards 4400, the origin of the October rally. An oversold RSI may cause a limited rebound. Nonetheless, the bulls need to clear offers around 4675 and then 4745 to gain momentum.
Considering Portfolios In Times Of, Among Others, Inflation...

XAUUSD, USDJPY And AUDJPY Are Mentioned In Jason Sen's Video Analysis

Jason Sen Jason Sen 18.01.2022 13:39
AUDJPY longs work if you are still holding them hitting target & only resistance for today at 8280/8300. Therefore a break above 8320 is a buy signal targeting 8365/75. A buying opportunity again at 8220/10. Stop below 8190. A break below 8190 is a sell signal targeting 8160/55, perhaps as far as 8100/8090. EURJPY straight through minor resistance at 130.60/70 to the next target of 130.95/99 with a test of trend line resistance at 131.20/30 now likely. Shorts need stops above 131.45. A break higher is a buy signal - try to jump in and hold long in to the end of the week. A buying opportunity again at 130.10/129.90 with stop below 129.80. EURUSD longs at the buying opportunity at 1.1400/1.1380 target strong resistance at 1.1455/65. This held quite well on the last test. Further gains are likely eventually towards 1.1500/10 & 1.1560/70 A buying opportunity at 1.1400/1.1380 - stop below 1.1365. If this trade fails, I fear we will remain stuck in a sideways trend. GBPUSD shorts at the 200 day moving average at 1.3735/40 worked in severely overbought conditions to test support at 1.3670/60. Further losses today meet strong support at 1.3620/00 with a good chance of a low for the day. Longs need stops below 1.3585. Next target & support at 1.3535/25. 200 day moving average resistance again at 1.3735/40 Shorts need stops above 1.3755 this week. A break higher is the next buy signal targeting 1.3780 & 1.3805/15. Expect some resistance at the October high at 1.3830/35. Emini S&P got close to a test of the neck line at 4590/80 on Friday but bounced from 4606. If tested this week, longs need stops below 4570. A break lower is a significant sell signal. Minor resistance at 4670/80 & again at 4695/4705. Further gains can retest last week's high of 4735/40. Next target is 4750/60. Above 4765 can retest the all time high at 4800/08. Nasdaq perhaps building a minor negative trend in January perhaps. Holding quite important resistance at 15700/750 is negative for today initially targeting 15550/500. If we continue lower look for 15350/320 before a retest of last week's low at 15170/150. Further losses test the 200 day moving average at 15000/14950. First resistance at 15700/750 - shorts need stops above 15800. A break higher targets more minor resistance at 16000/16100. A break above here is a buy signal & we could even retest the all time high. Emini Dow Jones I am waiting for a clear pattern of trend to develop. For now, minor resistance at 35800/850 tested as I write over night but if we continue higher look for a test of minor resistance at 36000/36050. Further gains can target 36300/350. Holding minor resistance at 35800/850 can target 35750/700 before a retest of this week's low at 35540/520. A break lower this week targets support at the 100 day moving average at 35350/330. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
COT Currency Speculator Sentiment rising for Euro & British Pound Sterling

COT Currency Speculator Sentiment rising for Euro & British Pound Sterling

Invest Macro Invest Macro 24.01.2022 11:36
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data is the trend changes in speculator sentiment we are seeing in the Euro and the British pound sterling. Speculators have been boosting their bets for the Euro and pound sterling over the past weeks and have now pushed their bets in both currencies to their best levels since September. Euro positions have gained for five consecutive weeks (a 5-week total rise of +36,463 contracts) and have now been in bullish territory for two straight weeks after spending thirteen out of the past fourteen weeks in bearish territory. This week’s net position of +24,584 contracts marks the best position since September 14th when positions were in a downtrend and on their way into negative territory. British pound speculator bets, meanwhile, have risen sharply with four straight weeks of gains (a 4-week rise by +57,439 contracts) and have now settled into a current position of just -247 net contracts. The net position had been at a multi-year bearish high of -57,686 contracts as recently as December 21st before a turnaround in sentiment. Free Reports: Top 5 Companies Added to Our Stock Watch List this Quarter - Here are the Stock Symbols that stood out so far in the fourth quarter of 2021. Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis. Joining the Euro (18,579 contracts) and British pound sterling (28,919 contracts) with positive changes this week were the yen (6,646 contracts), New Zealand dollar (273 contracts), Canadian dollar (14,868 contracts), Australian dollar (3,032 contracts) and the Mexican peso (9,371 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-1,458 contracts), Brazil real (-557 contracts), Swiss franc (-3,150 contracts), Russian ruble (-3,195 contracts) and Bitcoin (-172 contracts) Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Jan-18-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index EUR 691,882 80 24,584 43 -50,464 61 25,880 17 JPY 201,820 56 -80,879 17 99,740 86 -18,861 9 GBP 183,234 28 -247 74 2,848 31 -2,601 50 AUD 181,136 68 -88,454 3 98,519 92 -10,065 28 MXN 151,778 27 4,920 29 -7,490 70 2,570 54 CAD 143,371 26 7,492 58 -13,723 47 6,231 42 USD Index 53,283 74 36,434 89 -42,397 4 5,963 82 RUB 45,413 46 6,422 29 -7,251 69 829 57 NZD 44,727 33 -8,331 57 10,622 47 -2,291 26 CHF 39,871 14 -10,810 51 13,799 46 -2,989 54 BRL 32,098 30 -11,369 53 10,759 48 610 74 Bitcoin 11,468 62 -549 91 -22 0 571 26   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 36,434 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,458 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,892 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.8 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 79.5 3.2 15.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.1 82.7 4.2 – Net Position: 36,434 -42,397 5,963 – Gross Longs: 42,369 1,684 8,180 – Gross Shorts: 5,935 44,081 2,217 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.1 to 1 0.0 to 1 3.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.6 4.1 81.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.7 -3.6 6.8   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,584 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 18,579 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,005 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.6 56.3 11.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.1 63.6 7.8 – Net Position: 24,584 -50,464 25,880 – Gross Longs: 211,901 389,617 79,656 – Gross Shorts: 187,317 440,081 53,776 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.5 61.5 17.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.1 -8.6 -4.3   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -247 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 28,919 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,166 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.7 62.5 14.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.8 60.9 15.8 – Net Position: -247 2,848 -2,601 – Gross Longs: 39,760 114,486 26,267 – Gross Shorts: 40,007 111,638 28,868 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 73.8 31.4 50.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 27.4 -30.6 28.5   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -80,879 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,646 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -87,525 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.0 86.1 8.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 44.0 36.6 18.0 – Net Position: -80,879 99,740 -18,861 – Gross Longs: 8,002 173,701 17,475 – Gross Shorts: 88,881 73,961 36,336 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.9 85.7 9.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -11.3 9.5 -3.1   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -10,810 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,150 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,660 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 2.3 67.3 30.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.4 32.7 37.5 – Net Position: -10,810 13,799 -2,989 – Gross Longs: 925 26,828 11,951 – Gross Shorts: 11,735 13,029 14,940 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.1 46.4 54.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.2 -7.4 15.5   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 7,492 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 14,868 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,376 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.7 41.1 21.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.5 50.7 17.5 – Net Position: 7,492 -13,723 6,231 – Gross Longs: 49,792 58,921 31,270 – Gross Shorts: 42,300 72,644 25,039 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 57.9 46.9 42.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.3 -13.5 6.0   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -88,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,032 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -91,486 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.0 82.2 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 53.8 27.9 16.1 – Net Position: -88,454 98,519 -10,065 – Gross Longs: 9,051 148,978 19,008 – Gross Shorts: 97,505 50,459 29,073 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 3.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.8 92.4 27.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.2 -0.3 17.1   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -8,331 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 273 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,604 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.0 66.8 6.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 44.6 43.0 11.5 – Net Position: -8,331 10,622 -2,291 – Gross Longs: 11,612 29,876 2,851 – Gross Shorts: 19,943 19,254 5,142 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 57.3 46.8 25.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -31.9 30.0 -5.2   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 4,920 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,371 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,451 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 49.7 46.1 3.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.5 51.0 2.2 – Net Position: 4,920 -7,490 2,570 – Gross Longs: 75,461 69,942 5,901 – Gross Shorts: 70,541 77,432 3,331 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 29.4 69.7 53.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 29.4 -30.3 15.6   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of -11,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,812 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.1 56.6 8.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 69.6 23.1 7.0 – Net Position: -11,369 10,759 610 – Gross Longs: 10,958 18,179 2,841 – Gross Shorts: 22,327 7,420 2,231 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 2.5 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.4 47.8 74.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.7 6.6 9.9   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week was a net position of 6,422 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,195 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,617 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.3 60.0 4.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.2 75.9 2.8 – Net Position: 6,422 -7,251 829 – Gross Longs: 16,034 27,233 2,101 – Gross Shorts: 9,612 34,484 1,272 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.6 68.9 57.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.5 19.1 -25.4   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -549 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -172 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -377 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 73.4 3.1 12.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 78.2 3.3 7.3 – Net Position: -549 -22 571 – Gross Longs: 8,417 355 1,407 – Gross Shorts: 8,966 377 836 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.9 28.5 25.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.4 -13.2 -5.0   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here. CountingPips Forex Blog Forex and Currency News Opinions   COT Bonds Speculators sharply reduce 5-Year Treasury bearish bets for 2nd week →
USD To JPY Chart - What an Upswing! SPX Doesn't Go Really High

USD To JPY Chart - What an Upswing! SPX Doesn't Go Really High

John Benjamin John Benjamin 28.01.2022 08:39
USDJPY tests major resistance The Japanese yen inched higher after January’s Tokyo CPI beat expectations. The US dollar found support in the daily demand zone around 113.50. And that is a sign that upbeat sentiment in the medium-term remains intact. A close above the psychological level of 115.00 attracted momentum traders and sped up the rebound. 115.60 at the origin of the January liquidation is key resistance. In fact, its breach could put the uptrend back on track. The RSI’s overextension may cause a limited pullback with 114.50 as the closest support. USOIL breaks to new high Oil climbed amid fears of disruption as tensions between Russia and the West grew. After a short-lived pause, WTI crude saw bids near a previous low at 82.00 which lies on the 20-day moving average. A break above the January peak at 87.80 indicates solid interest in keeping the rally in shape. As the bulls’ run continued, more trend-followers would push the price to 89.00. An overbought RSI temporarily restrained the fever, and buyers could see a pullback towards 85.00 as an opportunity. SPX 500 struggles for support Upcoming US rate hike still weighs on equity markets. A tentative break below last October’s low (4300) has put the S&P 500 on the defense. A bearish MA cross on the daily chart shows that sentiment could be deteriorating as price action struggles to stabilize. An oversold RSI led to a limited rebound as intraday sellers took profit. Nonetheless, buyers should be wary of catching a falling knife, leaving the index vulnerable to another sell-off if it drops below 4230. 4490 is the first resistance to clear to initiate a recovery.
COT Forex Speculators reduce their US Dollar bullish bets to 7-week low

COT Forex Speculators reduce their US Dollar bullish bets to 7-week low

Invest Macro Invest Macro 05.02.2022 20:24
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 1st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the decline for the US Dollar Index in the currency futures contracts. Dollar Index speculators cut back on their bullish bets this week for the third time in the past four weeks after previously pushing their bullish bets to a 117-week high on January 4th. Since that high-point, bullish bets have fallen by a total of -4,507 contracts and have now dropped the overall standing to a seven-week low. Despite the recent slide, the US Dollar Index bullish bets are still near the top of their range over the past three years with a speculator strength index score of 85.4 percent which is considered extremely bullish (strength index is the current speculator standing compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme). The Dollar Index price has had a volatile couple of weeks with a sharp rise to 97.22 on January 28th and then a sharp drop to 95.23 on February 3rd and closed the week at approximately 95.48. The currencies with positive changes this week were the Japanese yen (7,633 contracts), Swiss franc (557 contracts), Canadian dollar (5,947 contracts), Russian ruble (10,207 contracts), Bitcoin (175 contracts), Australian dollar (3,444 contracts) and the Mexican peso (1,520 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-2,290 contracts), Euro (-1,844 contracts), British pound sterling (-15,842 contracts), Brazil real (-737 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (-925 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-01-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 56,477 81 34,571 85 -41,884 5 7,313 97 EUR 685,431 78 29,716 44 -57,467 59 27,751 20 GBP 184,007 28 -23,605 57 28,891 47 -5,286 45 JPY 194,435 51 -60,640 30 79,353 76 -18,713 9 CHF 41,054 16 -8,239 56 16,541 49 -8,302 39 CAD 145,082 27 18,264 65 -25,622 39 7,358 44 AUD 196,913 80 -79,829 11 96,098 91 -16,269 13 NZD 58,467 60 -11,698 52 14,019 52 -2,321 25 MXN 141,352 22 730 28 -3,848 71 3,118 56 RUB 46,358 47 14,151 47 -14,451 52 300 43 BRL 76,175 100 -13,353 51 10,467 47 2,886 100 Bitcoin 9,948 51 141 100 -491 0 350 21   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 34,571 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,290 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,861 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.7 3.8 16.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.5 78.0 3.3 – Net Position: 34,571 -41,884 7,313 – Gross Longs: 43,897 2,141 9,203 – Gross Shorts: 9,326 44,025 1,890 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.7 to 1 0.0 to 1 4.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 85.4 5.0 96.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.9 -2.6 22.9   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 29,716 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,844 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,560 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.2 55.0 12.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.8 63.4 8.2 – Net Position: 29,716 -57,467 27,751 – Gross Longs: 213,563 376,805 83,675 – Gross Shorts: 183,847 434,272 55,924 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.1 59.5 20.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.2 -11.8 3.2   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -23,605 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15,842 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,763 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.1 68.8 13.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.9 53.1 16.4 – Net Position: -23,605 28,891 -5,286 – Gross Longs: 29,597 126,536 24,845 – Gross Shorts: 53,202 97,645 30,131 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 57.0 46.8 44.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 24.6 -25.0 16.9   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -60,640 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -68,273 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.5 82.5 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.7 41.7 17.8 – Net Position: -60,640 79,353 -18,713 – Gross Longs: 14,510 160,358 15,958 – Gross Shorts: 75,150 81,005 34,671 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 29.7 75.6 9.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.3 4.1 0.3   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,239 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,796 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 1.7 73.5 24.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.8 33.2 44.8 – Net Position: -8,239 16,541 -8,302 – Gross Longs: 698 30,161 10,103 – Gross Shorts: 8,937 13,620 18,405 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.6 49.4 38.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.7 0.7 -4.6   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 18,264 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,947 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,317 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.1 39.6 21.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.5 57.3 16.5 – Net Position: 18,264 -25,622 7,358 – Gross Longs: 52,386 57,524 31,356 – Gross Shorts: 34,122 83,146 23,998 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.4 39.4 44.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 27.3 -22.9 9.8   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -79,829 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,273 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.6 78.8 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.1 30.0 17.5 – Net Position: -79,829 96,098 -16,269 – Gross Longs: 18,835 155,124 18,128 – Gross Shorts: 98,664 59,026 34,397 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 10.8 90.6 12.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.5 -1.4 3.4   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -11,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -925 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,773 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.8 61.0 4.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.9 37.0 8.7 – Net Position: -11,698 14,019 -2,321 – Gross Longs: 19,205 35,644 2,783 – Gross Shorts: 30,903 21,625 5,104 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.6 52.0 25.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.3 7.9 4.7   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,520 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -790 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 38.0 57.2 4.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.5 59.9 2.3 – Net Position: 730 -3,848 3,118 – Gross Longs: 53,767 80,885 6,378 – Gross Shorts: 53,037 84,733 3,260 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.7 71.2 56.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.4 -4.3 20.0   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -13,353 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -737 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,616 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 47.6 46.3 6.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 65.2 32.6 2.2 – Net Position: -13,353 10,467 2,886 – Gross Longs: 36,293 35,263 4,562 – Gross Shorts: 49,646 24,796 1,676 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.4 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.8 47.4 100.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.1 4.3 42.4   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 14,151 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,207 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,944 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 54.0 41.5 4.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.5 72.7 3.7 – Net Position: 14,151 -14,451 300 – Gross Longs: 25,048 19,255 2,024 – Gross Shorts: 10,897 33,706 1,724 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.9 52.4 42.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.1 -10.5 -26.0   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 141 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 175 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.3 3.1 12.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 78.8 8.0 8.9 – Net Position: 141 -491 350 – Gross Longs: 7,984 304 1,232 – Gross Shorts: 7,843 795 882 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 20.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 22.4 -43.4 -11.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Forex Speculators reduce their US Dollar bullish bets to 7-week low - 06.02.2022

COT Forex Speculators reduce their US Dollar bullish bets to 7-week low - 06.02.2022

Invest Macro Invest Macro 05.02.2022 20:24
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 1st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the decline for the US Dollar Index in the currency futures contracts. Dollar Index speculators cut back on their bullish bets this week for the third time in the past four weeks after previously pushing their bullish bets to a 117-week high on January 4th. Since that high-point, bullish bets have fallen by a total of -4,507 contracts and have now dropped the overall standing to a seven-week low. Despite the recent slide, the US Dollar Index bullish bets are still near the top of their range over the past three years with a speculator strength index score of 85.4 percent which is considered extremely bullish (strength index is the current speculator standing compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme). The Dollar Index price has had a volatile couple of weeks with a sharp rise to 97.22 on January 28th and then a sharp drop to 95.23 on February 3rd and closed the week at approximately 95.48. The currencies with positive changes this week were the Japanese yen (7,633 contracts), Swiss franc (557 contracts), Canadian dollar (5,947 contracts), Russian ruble (10,207 contracts), Bitcoin (175 contracts), Australian dollar (3,444 contracts) and the Mexican peso (1,520 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-2,290 contracts), Euro (-1,844 contracts), British pound sterling (-15,842 contracts), Brazil real (-737 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (-925 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-01-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 56,477 81 34,571 85 -41,884 5 7,313 97 EUR 685,431 78 29,716 44 -57,467 59 27,751 20 GBP 184,007 28 -23,605 57 28,891 47 -5,286 45 JPY 194,435 51 -60,640 30 79,353 76 -18,713 9 CHF 41,054 16 -8,239 56 16,541 49 -8,302 39 CAD 145,082 27 18,264 65 -25,622 39 7,358 44 AUD 196,913 80 -79,829 11 96,098 91 -16,269 13 NZD 58,467 60 -11,698 52 14,019 52 -2,321 25 MXN 141,352 22 730 28 -3,848 71 3,118 56 RUB 46,358 47 14,151 47 -14,451 52 300 43 BRL 76,175 100 -13,353 51 10,467 47 2,886 100 Bitcoin 9,948 51 141 100 -491 0 350 21   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 34,571 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,290 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,861 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.7 3.8 16.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.5 78.0 3.3 – Net Position: 34,571 -41,884 7,313 – Gross Longs: 43,897 2,141 9,203 – Gross Shorts: 9,326 44,025 1,890 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.7 to 1 0.0 to 1 4.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 85.4 5.0 96.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.9 -2.6 22.9   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 29,716 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,844 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,560 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.2 55.0 12.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.8 63.4 8.2 – Net Position: 29,716 -57,467 27,751 – Gross Longs: 213,563 376,805 83,675 – Gross Shorts: 183,847 434,272 55,924 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.1 59.5 20.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.2 -11.8 3.2   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -23,605 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15,842 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,763 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.1 68.8 13.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.9 53.1 16.4 – Net Position: -23,605 28,891 -5,286 – Gross Longs: 29,597 126,536 24,845 – Gross Shorts: 53,202 97,645 30,131 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 57.0 46.8 44.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 24.6 -25.0 16.9   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -60,640 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -68,273 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.5 82.5 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.7 41.7 17.8 – Net Position: -60,640 79,353 -18,713 – Gross Longs: 14,510 160,358 15,958 – Gross Shorts: 75,150 81,005 34,671 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 29.7 75.6 9.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.3 4.1 0.3   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,239 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,796 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 1.7 73.5 24.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.8 33.2 44.8 – Net Position: -8,239 16,541 -8,302 – Gross Longs: 698 30,161 10,103 – Gross Shorts: 8,937 13,620 18,405 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.6 49.4 38.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.7 0.7 -4.6   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 18,264 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,947 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,317 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.1 39.6 21.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.5 57.3 16.5 – Net Position: 18,264 -25,622 7,358 – Gross Longs: 52,386 57,524 31,356 – Gross Shorts: 34,122 83,146 23,998 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.4 39.4 44.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 27.3 -22.9 9.8   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -79,829 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,273 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.6 78.8 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.1 30.0 17.5 – Net Position: -79,829 96,098 -16,269 – Gross Longs: 18,835 155,124 18,128 – Gross Shorts: 98,664 59,026 34,397 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 10.8 90.6 12.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.5 -1.4 3.4   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -11,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -925 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,773 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.8 61.0 4.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.9 37.0 8.7 – Net Position: -11,698 14,019 -2,321 – Gross Longs: 19,205 35,644 2,783 – Gross Shorts: 30,903 21,625 5,104 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.6 52.0 25.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.3 7.9 4.7   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,520 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -790 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 38.0 57.2 4.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.5 59.9 2.3 – Net Position: 730 -3,848 3,118 – Gross Longs: 53,767 80,885 6,378 – Gross Shorts: 53,037 84,733 3,260 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.7 71.2 56.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.4 -4.3 20.0   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -13,353 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -737 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,616 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 47.6 46.3 6.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 65.2 32.6 2.2 – Net Position: -13,353 10,467 2,886 – Gross Longs: 36,293 35,263 4,562 – Gross Shorts: 49,646 24,796 1,676 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.4 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.8 47.4 100.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.1 4.3 42.4   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 14,151 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,207 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,944 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 54.0 41.5 4.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.5 72.7 3.7 – Net Position: 14,151 -14,451 300 – Gross Longs: 25,048 19,255 2,024 – Gross Shorts: 10,897 33,706 1,724 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.9 52.4 42.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.1 -10.5 -26.0   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 141 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 175 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.3 3.1 12.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 78.8 8.0 8.9 – Net Position: 141 -491 350 – Gross Longs: 7,984 304 1,232 – Gross Shorts: 7,843 795 882 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 20.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 22.4 -43.4 -11.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Currency Speculator’s bullish bets for Brazilian Real jump by most on record - 12.02.2022

COT Currency Speculator’s bullish bets for Brazilian Real jump by most on record - 12.02.2022

Invest Macro Invest Macro 12.02.2022 18:28
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the strong gains in bullish bets for the Brazilian Real currency futures contracts. Real speculators boosted their bullish bets this week by the largest one-week amount (+33,599 contracts) on record, according the CFTC data going back to 1995. This surge in bullish sentiment pushed the overall net speculator standing for Brazilian Reals into bullish territory for the first time in nineteen weeks, dating back to September 28th. There has been a surge of trading going on in this market over the past couple of weeks with open interest increasing dramatically. Open interest (OI) for the Brazilian currency jumped on February 2nd to a total of 76,175 contracts which marked the highest OI level of the previous 381 weeks, dating all the way back to September of 2014. The previous ten weeks had seen an average open interest of less than half (ten week average of 33,492 contracts) of the February 2nd total. This week’s open interest fell a bit to 64,283 contracts but still was the second highest open interest of the past thirty-six weeks and with all this activity going on, this is a currency to watch. Joining the Brazil real (33,599 contracts) with positive changes this week were the Euro (9,126 contracts), Japanese yen (1,492 contracts), British pound sterling (15,060 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,332 contracts), Mexican peso (514 contracts) and the Russian ruble (1,292 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-806 contracts), Australian dollar (-5,912 contracts), Canadian dollar (-3,378 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,160 contracts) and the Bitcoin futures (-460 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-08-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 53,603 75 33,765 84 -40,826 7 7,061 94 EUR 700,098 83 38,842 47 -73,252 55 34,410 31 GBP 197,948 37 -8,545 68 9,323 35 -778 54 JPY 196,478 53 -59,148 31 75,957 74 -16,809 13 CHF 41,481 16 -9,399 54 16,918 50 -7,519 41 CAD 145,208 27 14,886 62 -16,958 45 2,072 34 AUD 196,403 80 -85,741 5 98,357 92 -12,616 22 NZD 54,877 53 -10,366 54 12,733 50 -2,367 25 MXN 134,257 19 1,244 28 -4,073 71 2,829 55 RUB 39,233 35 15,443 50 -16,839 47 1,396 72 BRL 64,283 81 20,246 96 -22,432 4 2,186 92 Bitcoin 9,886 50 -319 90 -189 0 508 24   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 33,765 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -806 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,571 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 75.3 5.9 16.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.3 82.0 3.3 – Net Position: 33,765 -40,826 7,061 – Gross Longs: 40,370 3,150 8,841 – Gross Shorts: 6,605 43,976 1,780 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.1 to 1 0.1 to 1 5.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 84.0 6.8 93.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.2 2.7 15.2   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 38,842 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,126 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,716 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.3 54.6 12.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.7 65.1 7.6 – Net Position: 38,842 -73,252 34,410 – Gross Longs: 218,973 382,426 87,725 – Gross Shorts: 180,131 455,678 53,315 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.9 55.0 31.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 14.0 -15.5 15.3   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -8,545 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 15,060 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,605 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.6 60.7 13.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.9 56.0 14.0 – Net Position: -8,545 9,323 -778 – Gross Longs: 44,709 120,220 26,951 – Gross Shorts: 53,254 110,897 27,729 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.8 35.2 54.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 30.4 -30.0 17.8   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -59,148 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,492 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,640 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.0 81.2 9.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.1 42.6 17.5 – Net Position: -59,148 75,957 -16,809 – Gross Longs: 15,692 159,601 17,609 – Gross Shorts: 74,840 83,644 34,418 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.9 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 30.7 73.9 13.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.8 1.8 5.3   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,399 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,160 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,239 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.0 72.8 23.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.6 32.1 41.8 – Net Position: -9,399 16,918 -7,519 – Gross Longs: 1,234 30,215 9,838 – Gross Shorts: 10,633 13,297 17,357 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.5 49.9 41.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.3 1.9 -8.8   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 14,886 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,264 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.7 40.2 18.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.5 51.9 17.5 – Net Position: 14,886 -16,958 2,072 – Gross Longs: 54,762 58,404 27,480 – Gross Shorts: 39,876 75,362 25,408 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 62.1 45.4 33.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 24.4 -16.7 -2.2   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -85,741 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,912 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,829 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.8 79.0 9.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.5 28.9 16.3 – Net Position: -85,741 98,357 -12,616 – Gross Longs: 17,323 155,203 19,485 – Gross Shorts: 103,064 56,846 32,101 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 5.3 92.3 21.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.7 -0.8 12.5   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -10,366 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,332 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,698 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.3 61.2 5.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.2 38.0 10.0 – Net Position: -10,366 12,733 -2,367 – Gross Longs: 17,168 33,591 3,097 – Gross Shorts: 27,534 20,858 5,464 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.9 50.0 24.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.3 4.1 -7.9   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 1,244 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 514 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 730 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.6 61.3 4.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.7 64.3 2.4 – Net Position: 1,244 -4,073 2,829 – Gross Longs: 45,097 82,287 6,067 – Gross Shorts: 43,853 86,360 3,238 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.9 71.1 55.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.4 -5.2 9.1   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 20,246 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 33,599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,353 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.7 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 76.5 17.6 5.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.0 52.5 2.3 – Net Position: 20,246 -22,432 2,186 – Gross Longs: 49,170 11,336 3,666 – Gross Shorts: 28,924 33,768 1,480 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 95.7 3.5 91.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 34.2 -37.2 28.4   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week was a net position of 15,443 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,292 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,151 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 50.1 43.4 6.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 10.7 86.3 3.0 – Net Position: 15,443 -16,839 1,396 – Gross Longs: 19,657 17,021 2,555 – Gross Shorts: 4,214 33,860 1,159 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.9 46.9 72.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.5 -15.9 -0.7   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -319 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -460 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 141 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 78.4 3.8 14.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 81.6 5.7 9.8 – Net Position: -319 -189 508 – Gross Longs: 7,751 376 1,474 – Gross Shorts: 8,070 565 966 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 89.9 24.8 24.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.9 2.9 -5.9   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Currency Speculators raise their Euro Futures bullish bets to 26-week high

COT Currency Speculators raise their Euro Futures bullish bets to 26-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 19.02.2022 18:38
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data is the gains in the Euro currency futures contracts. Euro speculators boosted their bullish bets for a second straight week this week and for the eighth time out of the past nine weeks. Over this nine-week time-frame, Euro bets have jumped by a total of +59,460 contracts, going from -10,162 net positions on December 21st to +47,581 net positions this week. These gains in the Euro sentiment have now brought the speculator positioning to the highest level in the past twenty-six weeks, dating back to August 17th. Joining the Euro (8,739 contracts) with positive changes this week were the US Dollar Index (1,621 contracts), Brazil real (3,514 contracts), Mexican peso (7,730 contracts),  British pound sterling (10,782 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,033 contracts), Russian ruble (721 contracts) and the Bitcoin futures (104 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Japanese yen (-7,014 contracts), Canadian dollar (-2,716 contracts), Australian dollar (-953 contracts) and the Swiss franc (-316 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-15-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 54,283 77 35,386 87 -41,548 6 6,162 84 EUR 702,047 84 47,581 50 -85,057 52 37,476 36 GBP 195,302 36 2,237 76 2,874 31 -5,111 45 JPY 199,425 55 -66,162 26 86,256 79 -20,094 6 CHF 45,522 22 -9,715 53 18,888 52 -9,173 36 CAD 144,815 27 12,170 59 -15,116 47 2,946 36 AUD 192,578 77 -86,694 4 97,684 92 -10,990 26 NZD 64,105 71 -9,333 56 12,020 49 -2,687 21 MXN 151,098 26 8,974 31 -12,054 68 3,080 56 RUB 38,960 35 16,164 52 -17,239 46 1,075 64 BRL 67,288 85 23,760 100 -26,225 0 2,465 95 Bitcoin 10,646 56 -215 92 -213 0 428 23   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 35,386 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,765 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 78.0 5.0 14.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.8 81.5 3.2 – Net Position: 35,386 -41,548 6,162 – Gross Longs: 42,349 2,717 7,897 – Gross Shorts: 6,963 44,265 1,735 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.1 to 1 0.1 to 1 4.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 86.8 5.6 83.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.4 5.3 5.7   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 47,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,739 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,842 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.0 54.7 12.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.3 66.8 7.4 – Net Position: 47,581 -85,057 37,476 – Gross Longs: 217,899 383,827 89,120 – Gross Shorts: 170,318 468,884 51,644 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.6 51.7 36.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.1 -16.6 15.7   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of 2,237 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,782 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,545 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.7 58.8 12.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.5 57.4 15.0 – Net Position: 2,237 2,874 -5,111 – Gross Longs: 50,151 114,901 24,257 – Gross Shorts: 47,914 112,027 29,368 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 75.6 31.4 45.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 29.8 -27.6 10.8   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -66,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,014 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,148 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.3 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.2 83.6 9.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.4 40.3 19.6 – Net Position: -66,162 86,256 -20,094 – Gross Longs: 10,425 166,645 18,973 – Gross Shorts: 76,587 80,389 39,067 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.2 79.0 6.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.5 0.7 5.2   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,399 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.0 72.6 19.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.4 31.2 39.2 – Net Position: -9,715 18,888 -9,173 – Gross Longs: 3,652 33,069 8,654 – Gross Shorts: 13,367 14,181 17,827 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.0 52.1 36.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.3 4.8 -11.9   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 12,170 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,716 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,886 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.6 40.4 19.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.2 50.9 17.5 – Net Position: 12,170 -15,116 2,946 – Gross Longs: 54,424 58,524 28,287 – Gross Shorts: 42,254 73,640 25,341 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.5 46.6 35.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 22.5 -16.4 0.9   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -86,694 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -953 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -85,741 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.1 81.0 10.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.1 30.2 15.9 – Net Position: -86,694 97,684 -10,990 – Gross Longs: 11,692 155,928 19,706 – Gross Shorts: 98,386 58,244 30,696 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 4.4 91.8 25.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.5 -2.3 1.1   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,333 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,366 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 38.9 55.3 4.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 53.4 36.5 8.6 – Net Position: -9,333 12,020 -2,687 – Gross Longs: 24,923 35,432 2,838 – Gross Shorts: 34,256 23,412 5,525 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.6 48.9 21.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.8 2.6 -13.7   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,974 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,730 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,244 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 39.4 56.0 4.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.4 64.0 2.1 – Net Position: 8,974 -12,054 3,080 – Gross Longs: 59,485 84,673 6,250 – Gross Shorts: 50,511 96,727 3,170 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.2 67.8 56.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.9 -8.0 3.0   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 23,760 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,514 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,246 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.1 16.5 6.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.8 55.5 2.4 – Net Position: 23,760 -26,225 2,465 – Gross Longs: 51,868 11,101 4,095 – Gross Shorts: 28,108 37,326 1,630 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.8 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 95.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 33.1 -36.1 31.8   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week was a net position of 16,164 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 721 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,443 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 50.8 42.2 6.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.4 86.4 4.2 – Net Position: 16,164 -17,239 1,075 – Gross Longs: 19,808 16,440 2,700 – Gross Shorts: 3,644 33,679 1,625 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.4 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.6 46.0 63.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.9 -19.2 -12.7   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 104 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -319 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 78.0 3.5 12.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 80.0 5.5 8.8 – Net Position: -215 -213 428 – Gross Longs: 8,307 369 1,364 – Gross Shorts: 8,522 582 936 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 92.2 22.8 22.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.5 -9.8 -6.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
GBPUSD Chart - Green Candles On The Right Hand Side, USDCAD Moved Down A Little

GBPUSD Chart - Green Candles On The Right Hand Side, USDCAD Moved Down A Little

John Benjamin John Benjamin 21.02.2022 08:53
GBPUSD tests resistance The sterling edged higher after January’s retail sales beat expectations. The recent pause has been an opportunity for the bulls to accumulate. A break above 1.3640 would signal solid buying after previous failed attempts. The daily resistance at 1.3750 would be the next hurdle. Its breach could trigger a broader reversal in the weeks to come. 1.3560 is the immediate support. And 1.3490 at the lower end of the horizontal consolidation is the second line of defense in case the pair needs to attract more support. USDCAD awaits breakout The Canadian dollar tanked after disappointing retail sales in December. The US counterpart is still struggling below the supply zone around 1.2800. A close above this daily resistance could propel the pair to last December’s high at 1.2950, a prerequisite for a bullish continuation in the medium-term. The current sideways action is a sign of indecision. 1.2640 is the lower boundary of the recent consolidation range. A bearish breakout would bring the greenback to a previous low at 1.2560. EURJPY struggles for support The Japanese yen rallies amid growing risk aversion across the board. The euro continues to shed gains from the surge earlier this month. A fall below 131.90 triggered profit-taking, and the latest rally came out to be a dead cat bounce after it was capped by this support-turned-resistance. A break below 130.40 (which sits over the 30-day moving average) shows fragility in market sentiment and would cause another round of sell-off. 129.20 at the base of the bullish impetus would be the next support.
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 15/2/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 15/2/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 22.02.2022 11:48
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 15/2/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 1,621 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in long positions by 1,979 contracts and an increase in short positions by 358 contracts. Growth in total net speculator positions occurred last week in the euro, the British pound and the New Zealand dollar. Decrease in total net positions occurred in the Australian dollar, the Japanese yen, the Canadian dollar, and the Swiss franc. In the event of a Russian invasion to Ukraine, markets would move into risk-off sentiment. This means that investors would sell risk assets, which include stock indices, and shift their resources into assets that are considered as safe havens in such situations, which include US government bonds and gold. In currency terms, this means that the US dollar, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc in particular could then appreciate in such a situation. Commodity currencies (especially AUD, NZD) might weaken. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators Date USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Feb 15, 2022 35386 47581 2237 -86694 -9333 -66162 12170 -9715 Feb 08, 2022 33765 38842 -8545 -85741 -10366 -59148 14886 -9399 Feb 01, 2022 34571 29716 -23605 -79829 -11698 -60640 18264 -8239 Jan 25, 2022 36861 31560 -7763 -83273 -10773 -68273 12317 -8796 Jan 18, 2022 36434 24584 -247 -88454 -8331 -80879 7492 -10810 Jan 11, 2022 37892 6005 -29166 -91486 -8604 -87525 -7376 -7660 Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the end of this report. Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 15, 2022 702047 217899 170318 47581 1949 -1074 -9813 8739 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 700098 218973 180131 38842 14667 5410 -3716 9126 Bullish Feb 01, 2022 685431 213563 183847 29716 2479 155 1999 -1844 Weak bullish Jan 25, 2022 682952 213408 181848 31560 -8930 1507 -5469 6976 Bullish Jan 18, 2022 691882 211901 187317 24584 9589 7540 -11039 18579 Bullish Jan 11, 2022 682293 204361 198356 6005 4075 5288 -2271 7559 Bullish         Total change 23829 18826 -30309 49135     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached 47,581 contracts last week, up by 8,739 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 1,074 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 9,813 contracts. Total net speculators positions have increased by 49,135 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators closing 30,309 short positions and adding 18,826 long positions. This data suggests continued bullish sentiment for the euro. However, the rising open interest, which increased by 1,949 contracts in the last week, shows the opposite, as the euro fell down last week and this decline is supported by the rising number of open interest contracts. So more bearish traders were in the market. So we have conflicting information here. The euro weakened slightly last week on fears of an escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Long-term resistance: 1.1461 – 1.15 Support: 1.1280 - 1.1300. Next support is near 1.1220 - 1.1240. A strong support is in 1.1120-1.1140. The British Pound   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 15, 2022 195302 50151 47914 2237 -2646 5442 -5340 10782 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 197948 44709 53254 -8545 13941 15112 52 15060 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 184007 29597 53202 -23605 1967 -7069 8773 -15842 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 182040 36666 44429 -7763 -1194 -3094 4422 -7516 Bearish Jan 18, 2022 183234 39760 40007 -247 -17259 9254 -19665 28919 Weak bearish Jan 11, 2022 200493 30506 59672 -29166 486 4526 -5479 10005 Weak bearish         Total change -4705 24171 -17237 41408     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached 2,237 contracts last week, up by 10,782 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions of 5,442 contracts and a decrease in short positions of 5,340 contracts. Total net positions have increased by 41,408 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators exiting 17,237 short positions and adding 24,171 long positions. This data suggests bullish sentiment for the pound. Open interest, which fell by 2,646 contracts last week, is indicating that the bullish price action that occurred in the pound last week was not supported by volume and therefore it is weak. Risk off sentiment in US equities could have a negative effect on the Pound as well as the Euro, which could then send the Pound towards support which is at 1.3380. Long-term resistance: 1.3620-1.3640. Next resistance is near 1.3680 – 1.3750. Support: 1.3490 – 1.3520. A next support is near 1.3320 – 1.3380 and then mainly in the zone near 1.3200. The Australian dollar   Date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 15, 2022 192578 11692 98386 -86694 -3825 -5631 -4678 -953 Bearish Feb 08, 2022 196403 17323 103064 -85741 -510 -1512 4400 -5912 Bearish Feb 01, 2022 196913 18835 98664 -79829 6893 3714 270 3444 Weak bearish Jan 25, 2022 190020 15121 98394 -83273 8884 6070 889 5181 Weak bearish Jan 18, 2022 181136 9051 97505 -88454 -4317 -3332 -6364 3032 Weak bearish Jan 11, 2022 185453 12383 103869 -91486 5346 -249 1871 -2120 Bearish         Total change 12471 -940 -3612 2672     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1 Total net speculator positions last week reached -86,694 contracts, down 953 contracts from the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions of 5,631 contracts and a decrease in short positions of 4,678 contracts. This data suggests continued bearish sentiment on the Australian dollar, which is confirmed by the downtrend. Total net positions have increased by 2,672 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators exit of 3,612 short contracts while exiting 940 long contracts at the same time. However, last week saw a decrease in open interest of 3,825 contracts. This means that the upward price action that occurred last week was weak in terms of volume because new money did not flow into the market. The Australian dollar is very sensitive to the international geopolitical situation. If the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalates, we can expect it to weaken especially on the AUDUSD pair and also the AUDJPY. Long-term resistance: 0.7200-0.7250 and especially near 0.7270-0.7310. Long-term support: 0.7085-0.7120. A strong support is near 0.6960 – 0.6990. The New Zealand dollar   Date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions Change Open Interest Change Long Change Short Change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 15, 2022 64105 24923 34256 -9333 9228 7755 6722 1033 Weak bearish Feb 08, 2022 54877 17168 27534 -10366 -3590 -2037 -3369 1332 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 58467 19205 30903 -11698 5151 3257 4182 -925 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 53316 15948 26721 -10773 8589 4336 6778 -2442 Bearish Jan 18, 2022 44727 11612 19943 -8331 2661 652 379 273 Weak bearish Jan 11, 2022 42066 10960 19564 -8604 1764 1543 1302 241 Weak bearish         Celková změna 23803 15506 15994 -488     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached a negative value last week - 9,333 contracts, having increased by 1,033 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 7,755 contracts and an increase in short positions by 6,722 contracts. This data suggests that the bearish sentiment for the New Zealand Dollar continues, but has started to weaken over the past week. Total net positions have declined by 488 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators adding 15,994 short positions and adding 15,506 long positions. Open interest rose significantly last week, increasing by 9,228 contracts. The rise in the NZDUSD price action that occurred last week is therefore supported by volume and therefore the move was strong. The reason for the NZD strengthening last week is that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to raise interest rates to 1% on Feb 23, 2022. However, if the conflict in Ukraine escalates further, the NZDUSD could more likely weaken. The reason for the NZDUSD's decline from a technical analysis perspective could also be that the NZDUSD price has reached horizontal resistance and also the upper downtrend line from the daily chart. Long-term resistance: 0.6700 – 0.6740 and then 0.6850 – 0.6890. Long-term support: 0.6590-0.6600 and the next support is at 0.6500 – 0.6530. Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 22/2/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 22/2/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 02.03.2022 21:33
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 22/2/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 698 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in long positions by 1,377 contracts and an increase in short positions by 679 contracts. The increase in total net speculator positions occurred last week in the euro, the Australian dollar and the Japanese yen. The decline in total net positions occurred in the British pound, the New Zealand dollar, the Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.  Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, markets shifted into risk-off sentiment. From a currency perspective, this means that the euro, pound, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar could weaken. However, the situation is changing very quickly depending on various political statements. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators Date USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Feb 22, 2022 36084 59306 -5809 -84080 -11551 -63187 9253 -10987 Feb 15, 2022 35386 47581 2237 -86694 -9333 -66162 12170 -9715 Feb 08, 2022 33765 38842 -8545 -85741 -10366 -59148 14886 -9399 Feb 01, 2022 34571 29716 -23605 -79829 -11698 -60640 18264 -8239 Jan 25, 2022 36861 31560 -7763 -83273 -10773 -68273 12317 -8796 Jan 18, 2022 36434 24584 -247 -88454 -8331 -80879 7492 -10810 Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the end of this report. Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com The Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 22, 2022 696682 214195 154889 59306 -5365 -3704 -15429 11725 Bullish Feb 15, 2022 702047 217899 170318 47581 1949 -1074 -9813 8739 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 700098 218973 180131 38842 14667 5410 -3716 9126 Bullish Feb 01, 2022 685431 213563 183847 29716 2479 155 1999 -1844 Weak bullish Jan 25, 2022 682952 213408 181848 31560 -8930 1507 -5469 6976 Bullish Jan 18, 2022 691882 211901 187317 24584 9589 7540 -11039 18579 Bullish         Total change 14389 9834 -43467 53301     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 59 306 contracts last week, up by 11 725 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 3,704 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 15,429 contracts. Total net positions have increased by 53,301 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to the fact that large speculators ended 43,467 short positions and addded 9,834 long positions.  This data suggests continued bullish sentiment for the euro. Open interest, which fell by 5,465 contracts in the past week, shows that the downward movement that occurred in the euro last week was not supported by the volume and therefore it was a weak decline as there were fewer bearish traders in the market.  The euro weakened strongly last week under the influence of the war in Ukraine and reached strong support at 1.1120. Long-term resistance: 1.1280 – 1.1300. Next resistance is near 1.1370 – 1.1400. Support: 1.1100-1.1140   The British pound   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 22, 2022 188443 42249 48058 -5809 -6859 -7902 144 -8046 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 195302 50151 47914 2237 -2646 5442 -5340 10782 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 197948 44709 53254 -8545 13941 15112 52 15060 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 184007 29597 53202 -23605 1967 -7069 8773 -15842 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 182040 36666 44429 -7763 -1194 -3094 4422 -7516 Bearish Jan 18, 2022 183234 39760 40007 -247 -17259 9254 -19665 28919 Weak bearish         Total Change -12050 11743 -11614 23357     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week amounted to - 5,809 contracts, down by 8,046 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 7,902 contracts and an increase in short positions by 144 contracts. Total net positions have increased by 23,357 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators exiting 11,614 short positions and adding 11,743 long positions. The decline in total net positions of large speculators into negative territory indicates bearish sentiment for the pound. Open interest, which fell by 6,859 contracts last week, indicates that the decline in the pound that occurred last week was not supported by volume and was therefore weak. The pound, just as the euro, might be negatively impacted by risk-off sentiment which could then send the pound towards support which is at 1.3300 or possibly 1.3200. Long-term resistance: 1.3620-1.3640.  Next resistance is near 1.3680 – 1.3750. The resistance is also in the zone 1.3490 – 1.3520. Support is near 1.3270 – 1.3300 and then mainly in the zone 1.3200.     The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 22, 2022 192579 11553 95633 -84080 1 -139 -2753 2614 Bullish Feb 15, 2022 192578 11692 98386 -86694 -3825 -5631 -4678 -953 Bearish Feb 08, 2022 196403 17323 103064 -85741 -510 -1512 4400 -5912 Bearish Feb 01, 2022 196913 18835 98664 -79829 6893 3714 270 3444 Weak bearish Jan 25, 2022 190020 15121 98394 -83273 8884 6070 889 5181 Weak bearish Jan 18, 2022 181136 9051 97505 -88454 -4317 -3332 -6364 3032 Weak bearish         Total Change 7126 -830 -8236 7406     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1 Total net speculator positions last week reached -84,080 contracts, up 2,614 contracts from the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 139 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 2,753 contracts. This data suggests a weakening of the bearish sentiment for the Australian dollar, which is confirmed by the downtrend. Total net positions have increased by 7,406 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators exiting 8,236 short contracts while exiting 830 long contracts. However, there was an increase in open interest of 1 contract last week. This means that the upward movement that occurred last week was weak in terms of volume because new money did not flow into the market. The Australian dollar is very sensitive to the international geopolitical situation. In the event of geopolitical instability, it can usually be expected to weaken especially in the AUDUSD pair and also the AUDJPY. However, last week the Australian dollar surprisingly strengthened and approached the resistance band. Long-term resistance: 0.7270-0.7310                                                                                                            Long-term support: 0.7085-0.7120.  A strong support is near 0.6960 – 0.6990.   The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 22, 2022 56636 17343 28894 -11551 -7469 -7580 -5362 -2218 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 64105 24923 34256 -9333 9228 7755 6722 1033 Weak bearish Feb 08, 2022 54877 17168 27534 -10366 -3590 -2037 -3369 1332 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 58467 19205 30903 -11698 5151 3257 4182 -925 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 53316 15948 26721 -10773 8589 4336 6778 -2442 Bearish Jan 18, 2022 44727 11612 19943 -8331 2661 652 379 273 Weak bearish         Total Change 14570 6383 9330 -2947     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached a negative value last week - 11,551 contracts, having fallen by 2,218 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 7,580 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 7,580 contracts. This data suggests that the bearish sentiment on the NZ dollar continues. Total net positions have declined by 2,947 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators adding 9,330 short positions and adding 6,383 long positions. Last week, open interest fell significantly by 7,469 contracts. Therefore, the upward movement in NZDUSD that occurred last week is not supported by volume and therefore the move was weak. The strengthening of the NZDUSD that occurred last week is somewhat surprising given the geopolitical tensions in Ukraine. This upward movement is forming a channel pattern, which may be a correction in the current downtrend trend that we can see on the daily or weekly chart. Long-term resistance: 0.6850 – 0.6890 Long-term support: 0.6590-0.6600 and the next support is at 0.6500 – 0.6530.   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Consolidates Gains - 04.03.2022

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Consolidates Gains - 04.03.2022

John Benjamin John Benjamin 04.03.2022 09:19
USDJPY tests supply areaThe Japanese yen stalled after an increase in January’s unemployment rate.The pair’s rally above the supply zone around 115.80 has put the US dollar back on track. The general direction remains up despite its choppiness. 114.40 has proved to be solid support and kept the bulls in the game.A close above 115.80 would extend the rally to the double top (116.30), a major resistance on the daily chart. Meanwhile, an overbought RSI caused a limited pullback, with 115.10 as fresh support.NZDUSD breaks resistanceThe New Zealand dollar recovers amid commodity price rallies.After the pair found support near last September’s lows (0.6530), a bullish MA cross on the daily chart suggests that sentiment could be turning around. A bullish breakout above the recent high (0.6810) would further boost buyers’ confidence and lift offers to January’s high at 0.6890.On the downside, 0.6730 is the first support if buyers struggle to gather more interest. 0.6675 would be a second layer to keep the current rebound intact.UK 100 lacks supportThe FTSE 100 slipped after the second round of talks between Russia and Ukraine ended without much result.The index met stiff selling pressure at 7560 then fell below the critical floor at 7170. Increasingly bearish sentiment triggered a new round of sell-off to the psychological level of 7000 from last November.A deeper correction would lead to a retest of 6850, dampening the market mood in the medium-term. On the upside, the bulls must clear 7300 and 7450 to reclaim control of the direction.
Large Currency Speculators raise their Brazilian Real bullish bets to Record High

Large Currency Speculators raise their Brazilian Real bullish bets to Record High

Invest Macro Invest Macro 05.03.2022 20:47
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 1st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data is the jump in bullish bets in the Brazilian Real currency futures contracts. Real speculators increased their bullish bets for a fourth straight week this week and by a total of +63,801 contracts over this four-week time-frame. This bullishness has taken the Real speculator level from -13,353 net positions on February 1st to +50,448 net positions this week. The current overall speculator standing has now climbed to the most bullish level on record, according to the CFTC data that goes back to the mid-1990’s and eclipsing the previous high set in 2017. The BRLUSD currency pair price has been in an uptrend since the beginning of the year and has reached the highest levels since June just below the 0.2000 exchange rate. The currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Brazil real (26,003 contracts), Mexican peso (25,553 contracts), Euro (5,633 contracts), British pound sterling (5,472 contracts), Canadian dollar (4,887 contracts), Australian dollar (5,744 contracts) and Bitcoin (363 contracts). The currencies with lower speculator bets were the US Dollar Index (-1,310 contracts), Japanese yen (-5,545 contracts), Swiss franc (-4,261 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-2,621 contracts) and the Russian ruble (-9,843 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-01-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 56,651 82 34,774 86 -39,391 9 4,617 67 EUR 719,975 91 64,939 55 -95,105 49 30,166 24 GBP 211,869 46 -337 74 14,129 38 -13,792 27 JPY 208,629 61 -68,732 25 79,535 76 -10,803 27 CHF 47,273 24 -15,248 43 20,862 54 -5,614 47 CAD 143,507 26 14,140 61 -21,586 42 7,446 45 AUD 189,667 75 -78,336 12 87,737 84 -9,401 30 NZD 50,389 44 -14,172 47 16,090 55 -1,918 30 MXN 154,664 28 42,378 45 -45,811 54 3,433 58 RUB 24,753 11 9,674 36 -9,068 65 -606 18 BRL 94,577 100 24,445 74 -27,081 25 2,636 97 Bitcoin 9,980 51 80 99 -517 0 437 23   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 34,774 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,310 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,084 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.2 8.5 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.9 78.1 2.3 – Net Position: 34,774 -39,391 4,617 – Gross Longs: 43,761 4,831 5,942 – Gross Shorts: 8,987 44,222 1,325 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.9 to 1 0.1 to 1 4.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 85.8 9.1 67.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.9 5.0 -14.7   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 64,939 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,306 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.7 54.2 11.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.7 67.4 7.5 – Net Position: 64,939 -95,105 30,166 – Gross Longs: 228,385 390,260 84,321 – Gross Shorts: 163,446 485,365 54,155 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 54.9 48.8 24.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.4 -12.6 7.1   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -337 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,472 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,809 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.5 62.1 10.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.7 55.4 17.2 – Net Position: -337 14,129 -13,792 – Gross Longs: 47,679 131,583 22,551 – Gross Shorts: 48,016 117,454 36,343 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 73.8 38.0 27.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.1 6.7 -23.2   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -68,732 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,545 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,187 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.0 80.3 10.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.0 42.2 15.9 – Net Position: -68,732 79,535 -10,803 – Gross Longs: 14,665 167,605 22,407 – Gross Shorts: 83,397 88,070 33,210 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.9 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 24.6 75.7 26.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.7 -10.0 17.5   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -15,248 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,987 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.5 74.1 21.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 35.7 30.0 33.3 – Net Position: -15,248 20,862 -5,614 – Gross Longs: 1,651 35,045 10,127 – Gross Shorts: 16,899 14,183 15,741 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.3 54.3 46.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.8 8.0 -7.7   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 14,140 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,887 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,253 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.5 40.1 21.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.6 55.2 16.3 – Net Position: 14,140 -21,586 7,446 – Gross Longs: 50,881 57,576 30,817 – Gross Shorts: 36,741 79,162 23,371 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 61.4 42.2 44.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.4 -5.4 2.4   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -78,336 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,744 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -84,080 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.7 80.1 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.0 33.8 15.4 – Net Position: -78,336 87,737 -9,401 – Gross Longs: 12,720 151,922 19,865 – Gross Shorts: 91,056 64,185 29,266 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 12.2 84.4 29.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.4 -8.0 1.6   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -14,172 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,551 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.8 72.1 5.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.9 40.2 9.1 – Net Position: -14,172 16,090 -1,918 – Gross Longs: 10,485 36,326 2,665 – Gross Shorts: 24,657 20,236 4,583 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.5 55.2 29.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.8 8.4 4.3   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 42,378 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 25,553 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,825 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 48.5 46.9 4.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.1 76.5 1.9 – Net Position: 42,378 -45,811 3,433 – Gross Longs: 74,971 72,497 6,306 – Gross Shorts: 32,593 118,308 2,873 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.4 53.7 57.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.0 -16.0 3.7   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 24,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,760 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 55.0 40.2 4.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.1 68.9 2.0 – Net Position: 24,445 -27,081 2,636 – Gross Longs: 51,990 38,039 4,541 – Gross Shorts: 27,545 65,120 1,905 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 74.4 24.7 97.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 34.7 -37.1 31.8   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 9,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,843 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,517 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 44.6 51.9 3.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.6 88.5 5.9 – Net Position: 9,674 -9,068 -606 – Gross Longs: 11,050 12,848 855 – Gross Shorts: 1,376 21,916 1,461 – Long to Short Ratio: 8.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 36.3 64.8 18.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.7 -4.2 -39.0   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 80 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 363 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -283 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.0 3.2 12.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 79.2 8.4 7.6 – Net Position: 80 -517 437 – Gross Longs: 7,981 321 1,198 – Gross Shorts: 7,901 838 761 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 98.7 0.0 22.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.8 -39.7 -3.0   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 1/3/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 1/3/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 07.03.2022 21:35
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 1/3/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index fell 1,310 contracts last week. This change is the result of 35 contracts increase in long positions and a 1,345 contracts increase in short positions. Growth in total net speculator positions occurred last week in the euro, the British pound, the Australian dollar, and the Canadian dollar. Decreases in total net positions occurred in the New Zealand dollar, the Japanese yen, and the Swiss franc.   Following Russia's invasion to Ukraine, markets shifted into risk-off sentiment. This means that especially the euro and the pound are weakening. The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar are strengthening due to rising prices of commodities that these countries export. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Mar 01, 2022 34774 64939 -337 -78336 -14172 -68732 14140 -15248 Feb 22, 2022 36084 59306 -5809 -84080 -11551 -63187 9253 -10987 Feb 15, 2022 35386 47581 2237 -86694 -9333 -66162 12170 -9715 Feb 08, 2022 33765 38842 -8545 -85741 -10366 -59148 14886 -9399 Feb 01, 2022 34571 29716 -23605 -79829 -11698 -60640 18264 -8239 Jan 25, 2022 36861 31560 -7763 -83273 -10773 -68273 12317 -8796 Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com The Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 01, 2022 719975 228385 163446 64939 23293 14190 8557 5633 Bullish Feb 22, 2022 696682 214195 154889 59306 -5365 -3704 -15429 11725 Bullish Feb 15, 2022 702047 217899 170318 47581 1949 -1074 -9813 8739 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 700098 218973 180131 38842 14667 5410 -3716 9126 Bullish Feb 01, 2022 685431 213563 183847 29716 2479 155 1999 -1844 Weak bullish Jan 25, 2022 682952 213408 181848 31560 -8930 1507 -5469 6976 Bullish         Total change 28093 16484 -23871 40355     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 64,939 contracts last week, which is an increase by 5,633 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 14,190 contracts and an increase in short positions by 8,557 contracts. These data suggest continued bullish sentiment in the euro. Open interest, which has increased by 23,293 contracts in the last week, shows that the downward movement that occurred in the euro last week was supported by volume and is therefore strong. The euro is weakening sharply under the influence of the war in Ukraine and we can see that support levels have not been respected in such a strong trend. In a strong downtrend it is very risky to try to catch the bottom and open bullish long positions.  Long-term resistance: 1.0980 – 1.1010. Next resistance is near 1.1120 – 1.1150. Support: 1.0640-1.0700 The British pound date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 01, 2022 211869 47679 48016 -337 23426 5430 -42 5472 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 188443 42249 48058 -5809 -6859 -7902 144 -8046 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 195302 50151 47914 2237 -2646 5442 -5340 10782 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 197948 44709 53254 -8545 13941 15112 52 15060 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 184007 29597 53202 -23605 1967 -7069 8773 -15842 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 182040 36666 44429 -7763 -1194 -3094 4422 -7516 Bearish         Total change 28635 7919 8009 -90     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached to -337 contracts, having increased by 5,472 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 5,430 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 42 contracts. This suggests bearish sentiment, but it is weak as the total net positions of large speculators increased. Open interest, which rose by 23,426 contracts last week, means that the fall in the pound that occurred last week was supported by volume and is therefore strong. Risk off sentiment due to the war in Ukraine continues to weigh on the pound as well as the euro and therefore the pound is weakening strongly. Long-term resistance: 1.3270-1.3300.  Next resistance is near 1.3420 – 1.3440. The resistance is also in the zone 1.3490 – 1.3520. Support is near 1.3150 – 1.3200.     The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 01, 2022 189667 12720 91056 -78336 -2912 1167 -4577 5744 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 192579 11553 95633 -84080 1 -139 -2753 2614 Weak bearish Feb 15, 2022 192578 11692 98386 -86694 -3825 -5631 -4678 -953 Bearish Feb 08, 2022 196403 17323 103064 -85741 -510 -1512 4400 -5912 Bearish Feb 01, 2022 196913 18835 98664 -79829 6893 3714 270 3444 Weak bearish Jan 25, 2022 190020 15121 98394 -83273 8884 6070 889 5181 Weak bearish         Total change 8531 3669 -6449 10118     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached to - 78,336 contracts, up by 5,744 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 1,167 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 4,577 contracts. This data suggests a weakening of bearish sentiment in the Australian dollar. However, last week we saw a decline in open interest by 2,912 contracts. This means that the upward movement that occurred last week in the AUDUSD was weak because new money did not flow into the market. The Australian dollar has been strengthening strongly recently, which is explained by the rise in the prices of commodities that Australia exports. These commodities include coal, gas and gold.  Long-term resistance: 0.7520-0.7560                                                                                                              Long-term support: 0.7085-0.7120.  A strong support is near 0.6960 – 0.6990.   The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 01, 2022 50389 10485 24657 -14172 -6247 -6858 -4237 -2621 Bearish Feb 22, 2022 56636 17343 28894 -11551 -7469 -7580 -5362 -2218 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 64105 24923 34256 -9333 9228 7755 6722 1033 Weak bearish Feb 08, 2022 54877 17168 27534 -10366 -3590 -2037 -3369 1332 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 58467 19205 30903 -11698 5151 3257 4182 -925 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 53316 15948 26721 -10773 8589 4336 6778 -2442 Bearish         Total change 5662 -1127 4714 -5841     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1     The total net positions of speculators last week reached a value of - 14,172 contracts, having fallen by 2,621 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 6,858 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 4,237 contracts. This data suggests that the bearish sentiment for the NZD continues. Last week, open interest fell significantly by 6,247 contracts. Therefore, the upward movement in the NZDUSD that occurred last week is not supported by volume and therefore the price action was weak. The strengthening of the NZDUSD that occurred last week is somewhat surprising given the geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and risk off sentiment. What helped the NZD rise are rising prices of commodities  such as milk, which New Zealand produces. Long-term resistance: 0.6850 – 0.6890 Long-term support: 0.6590-0.6600 and the next support is at 0.6500 – 0.6530.   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
Intraday Market Analysis – USD Consolidates Gains - 09.03.2022

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Consolidates Gains - 09.03.2022

John Benjamin John Benjamin 09.03.2022 08:47
USDJPY breaks higherThe Japanese yen softened after weaker-than-expected GDP in Q4. Despite choppiness in recent price action, confidence in the greenback remains high.A failed attempt at the supply zone (115.80) suggests a lack of momentum, but a swift bounce off 114.65 reveals strong enough buying interest.A bullish breakout would lead to the double top at 116.35. Its breach could end the two-month-long consolidation and trigger an extended rally towards January 2017’s highs around 118.00. 115.40 is fresh support.AUDUSD seeks supportThe Australian dollar stalls as commodity prices consolidate. The rally above 0.7310, a major supply area, has weakened selling pressure and put the pair on a bullish reversal course.The Aussie’s parabolic ascent and an overbought RSI prompted short-term buyers to take profit. As the RSI swings back into the oversold zone, the bulls may see the current fallback as an opportunity to stake in.0.7380 is a fresh resistance and 0.7250 is the immediate support. Further below 0.7170 is a critical level to keep the rebound valid.UK 100 sees limited bounceThe FTSE 100 struggles as the UK plans to ban Russian energy imports.On the daily chart, a break below the demand zone (6850) wiped out 11-months worth of gains and signaled a strong bearish bias. The RSI’s oversold situation may cause a temporary rebound, but a bearish MA cross could attract more selling interest.The liquidation is yet to end as medium-term buyers scramble for the exit. 7200 is a fresh resistance and 7450 is a major supply zone. A drop below 6800 may lead to 6500.
COT Currency Speculators boost Mexican Peso bullish bets to 104-week high

COT Currency Speculators boost Mexican Peso bullish bets to 104-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 12.03.2022 22:20
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data is the rising bullish sentiment in the Mexican Peso currency futures contracts. Peso speculators have boosted their bullish bets for six consecutive weeks and in nine out of the past ten weeks. Over the past six-week time-frame, Peso bets have gained by a total of +53.807 contracts, going from -790 net positions on January 25th to +53,017 net positions this week. This recent improvement in Peso positioning pushed the current net speculator standing (+53,017 contracts) to the most bullish level in the past one hundred and four weeks, dating back to March 10th of 2020. Joining the Mexican peso (10,639 contracts) with positive changes this week were the Japanese yen (12,876 contracts), Brazil real (48 contracts), Swiss franc (5,538 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,793 contracts), Australian dollar (141 contracts) and Bitcoin (185 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-730 contracts), Euro (-6,095 contracts), British pound sterling (-12,189 contracts), Canadian dollar (-6,494 contracts) and the Russian ruble (-1,868 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-08-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 62,447 95 34,044 85 -37,890 12 3,846 59 EUR 738,990 98 58,844 53 -83,873 52 25,029 16 GBP 246,312 68 -12,526 65 25,457 45 -12,931 29 JPY 208,683 61 -55,856 33 76,657 74 -20,801 5 CHF 51,820 30 -9,710 53 21,942 56 -12,232 27 CAD 149,425 30 7,646 55 -15,494 46 7,848 45 AUD 197,094 80 -78,195 12 78,183 77 12 52 NZD 53,250 50 -12,379 50 13,592 51 -1,213 38 MXN 166,433 34 53,017 50 -55,194 50 2,177 52 RUB 22,420 7 7,806 32 -7,325 69 -481 22 BRL 68,623 65 50,496 100 -52,564 0 2,068 90 Bitcoin 9,591 48 265 100 -422 0 157 17   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 34,044 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -730 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,774 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 73.7 12.8 9.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.2 73.4 2.9 – Net Position: 34,044 -37,890 3,846 – Gross Longs: 46,031 7,962 5,642 – Gross Shorts: 11,987 45,852 1,796 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.8 to 1 0.2 to 1 3.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 84.5 11.6 58.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.9 7.7 -19.7   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 58,844 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,095 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,939 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.8 52.3 11.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.9 63.7 8.2 – Net Position: 58,844 -83,873 25,029 – Gross Longs: 242,683 386,654 85,727 – Gross Shorts: 183,839 470,527 60,698 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.1 52.0 15.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.4 -7.8 0.5   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -12,526 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -12,189 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -337 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.7 66.8 9.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.8 56.4 14.6 – Net Position: -12,526 25,457 -12,931 – Gross Longs: 50,982 164,423 23,076 – Gross Shorts: 63,508 138,966 36,007 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.0 44.7 28.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.4 5.1 -8.0   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -55,856 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,876 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -68,732 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.8 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.5 81.6 8.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 34.2 44.9 18.1 – Net Position: -55,856 76,657 -20,801 – Gross Longs: 15,548 170,330 16,884 – Gross Shorts: 71,404 93,673 37,685 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 32.7 74.3 4.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.9 -3.1 -13.5   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -9,710 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,538 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,248 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.4 70.7 17.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.1 28.4 40.9 – Net Position: -9,710 21,942 -12,232 – Gross Longs: 4,856 36,635 8,947 – Gross Shorts: 14,566 14,693 21,179 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.0 55.5 27.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.6 9.6 -22.1   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 7,646 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,494 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,140 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.5 41.7 22.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.3 52.1 17.5 – Net Position: 7,646 -15,494 7,848 – Gross Longs: 48,492 62,360 33,951 – Gross Shorts: 40,846 77,854 26,103 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.1 46.4 45.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.5 2.8 1.2   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -78,195 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 141 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,336 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.9 74.1 13.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 49.6 34.5 13.0 – Net Position: -78,195 78,183 12 – Gross Longs: 19,521 146,144 25,564 – Gross Shorts: 97,716 67,961 25,552 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.2 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 12.3 77.2 52.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.7 -14.6 35.3   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -12,379 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,793 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,172 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.6 62.0 5.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.9 36.5 7.5 – Net Position: -12,379 13,592 -1,213 – Gross Longs: 15,775 33,005 2,792 – Gross Shorts: 28,154 19,413 4,005 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.5 51.3 37.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.7 0.5 14.8   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 53,017 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,639 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,378 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 50.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 45.7 36.4 3.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.8 69.5 2.1 – Net Position: 53,017 -55,194 2,177 – Gross Longs: 76,020 60,537 5,674 – Gross Shorts: 23,003 115,731 3,497 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.0 49.8 52.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 22.9 -22.4 -0.4   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 50,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 48 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,448 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 79.5 15.3 5.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.9 91.9 2.1 – Net Position: 50,496 -52,564 2,068 – Gross Longs: 54,543 10,468 3,488 – Gross Shorts: 4,047 63,032 1,420 – Long to Short Ratio: 13.5 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 90.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 62.0 -62.3 8.4   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 7,806 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,868 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,674 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.5 60.6 2.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 1.6 93.3 5.1 – Net Position: 7,806 -7,325 -481 – Gross Longs: 8,173 13,590 657 – Gross Shorts: 367 20,915 1,138 – Long to Short Ratio: 22.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.9 68.7 21.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.1 -7.0 -22.4   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 265 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 185 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 80 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.9 2.8 9.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 78.1 7.2 8.3 – Net Position: 265 -422 157 – Gross Longs: 7,760 272 950 – Gross Shorts: 7,495 694 793 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 7.6 16.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.4 4.5 -8.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 8/3/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 8/3/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 14.03.2022 16:01
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 8/3/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index fell by 730 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in long positions by 2,270 contracts and an increase in short positions by 3,000 contracts. The decrease in total net speculator positions occurred last week in the euro, the British pound, and the Canadian dollar. The increase in total net positions occurred in the New Zealand dollar, the Australian dollar, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc.     The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Mar 08, 2022 34044 58844 -12526 -78195 -12379 -55856 7646 -9710 Mar 01, 2022 34774 64939 -337 -78336 -14172 -68732 14140 -15248 Feb 22, 2022 36084 59306 -5809 -84080 -11551 -63187 9253 -10987 Feb 15, 2022 35386 47581 2237 -86694 -9333 -66162 12170 -9715 Feb 08, 2022 33765 38842 -8545 -85741 -10366 -59148 14886 -9399 Feb 01, 2022 34571 29716 -23605 -79829 -11698 -60640 18264 -8239 Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 08, 2022 738990 242683 183839 58844 19015 14298 20393 -6095 Weak bullish Mar 01, 2022 719975 228385 163446 64939 23293 14190 8557 5633 Bullish Feb 22, 2022 696682 214195 154889 59306 -5365 -3704 -15429 11725 Bullish Feb 15, 2022 702047 217899 170318 47581 1949 -1074 -9813 8739 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 700098 218973 180131 38842 14667 5410 -3716 9126 Bullish Feb 01, 2022 685431 213563 183847 29716 2479 155 1999 -1844 Weak bullish         Total Change 56038 29275 1991 27284     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached 58,844 contracts last week, down by 6,095 contracts from the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 14,198 contracts and an increase in short positions by 20,393 contracts. These data suggest a weakening of the bullish sentiment for the euro. Open interest, which rose by 19,015 contracts in the past week, shows that the downward price action movement that occurred in the euro last week was supported by volume and it was  therefore a strong trend. The euro continues to weaken under the influence of the war in Ukraine and we can see that support levels have not been respected in such a strong trend. The ECB's announcement last week to end the bond purchases in 3Q 2022 also contributed to the euro’s weakness. This hawkish statement at a time when economic growth is slowing sparked fears of stagflation in the market and therefore the euro weakened following the ECB announcement.   Long-term resistance: 1.1120 – 1.1150. Support: 1.080-1.0850. The next support is at 1.0640-1.0700.   The British pound date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 08, 2022 246312 50982 63508 -12526 34443 3303 15492 -12189 Bearish Mar 01, 2022 211869 47679 48016 -337 23426 5430 -42 5472 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 188443 42249 48058 -5809 -6859 -7902 144 -8046 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 195302 50151 47914 2237 -2646 5442 -5340 10782 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 197948 44709 53254 -8545 13941 15112 52 15060 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 184007 29597 53202 -23605 1967 -7069 8773 -15842 Bearish         Total Change 64272 14316 19079 -4763     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week reached - 12,526 contracts, having fallen by 12,189 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth in long positions by 3,303 contracts and the growth in short positions by 15,492 contracts. This suggests bearish sentiment as the total net speculators positions  are negative while there has been a further decline as well. Open interest, which rose by 34,443 contracts last week, means that the fall in the pound that occurred last week was supported by the volume and it was therefore a strong price action. Risk off sentiment due to the war in Ukraine continues to weigh on the pound as well as the euro and therefore the pound is weakening strongly. Long-term resistance: 1.3180-1.3210.  Next resistance is near 1.3270 – 1.3330. Support is near 1.3000.     The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 08, 2022 197094 19521 97716 -78195 7427 6801 6660 141 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 189667 12720 91056 -78336 -2912 1167 -4577 5744 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 192579 11553 95633 -84080 1 -139 -2753 2614 Weak bearish Feb 15, 2022 192578 11692 98386 -86694 -3825 -5631 -4678 -953 Bearish Feb 08, 2022 196403 17323 103064 -85741 -510 -1512 4400 -5912 Bearish Feb 01, 2022 196913 18835 98664 -79829 6893 3714 270 3444 Weak bearish         Total Change 7074 4400 -678 5078     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week reached 78,195 contracts, up by 141 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth in long positions by 6,801 contracts and the growth in short positions by 6,660 contracts. This data suggests a weakening of the bearish sentiment for the Australian dollar. Last week we saw an increase in open interest of 7,427 contracts. This means that the downward movement that occurred last week was supported by volume as new money flowed into the market. The Australian dollar weakened quite significantly last week. This may be explained by the fact that there has been a fall in prices in commodities that Australia exports (e.g. gold, coal). The decline in commodity prices also reflects efforts to find a diplomatic solution to the war in Ukraine.  Long-term resistance: 0.7370-0.7440                                                                                                              Long-term support: 0.7085-0.7120.  A strong support is near 0.6960 – 0.6990.   The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 08, 2022 53250 15775 28154 -12379 2861 5290 3497 1793 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 50389 10485 24657 -14172 -6247 -6858 -4237 -2621 Bearish Feb 22, 2022 56636 17343 28894 -11551 -7469 -7580 -5362 -2218 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 64105 24923 34256 -9333 9228 7755 6722 1033 Weak bearish Feb 08, 2022 54877 17168 27534 -10366 -3590 -2037 -3369 1332 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 58467 19205 30903 -11698 5151 3257 4182 -925 Bearish         Total Change -66 -173 1433 -1606     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached a negative value last week - 12,379 contracts, having increased by 1,793 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 5,290 contracts and an increase in short positions by 3,497 contracts. This data suggests that the bearish sentiment on the NZ dollar has weakened over the past week. Open interest rose significantly by 2,861 contracts last week. The downward movement in the NZDUSD that occurred last week was therefore supported by volume and therefore the move was strong. The weakening in the NZDUSD that occurred last week can be explained by the decline in the prices of commodities that New Zealand produces. Long-term resistance: 0.6850 – 0.6920 Long-term support: 0.6590-0.6600 and the next support is at 0.6500 – 0.6530.   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
GBPUSD Almost Full Recovered After BoE's Decision, USDJPY Doesn't Fluctuate Significantly, S&P 500 (SPX) Is Not So Far From 4400.00

GBPUSD Almost Full Recovered After BoE's Decision, USDJPY Doesn't Fluctuate Significantly, S&P 500 (SPX) Is Not So Far From 4400.00

Jing Ren Jing Ren 18.03.2022 07:58
GBPUSD attempts to rebound The British pound stalled after the BOE failed to secure a unanimous vote for higher rates. A bullish RSI divergence suggests exhaustion in the sell-off, and combined with the indicator’s oversold condition on the daily chart, may attract buying interest. A tentative break above 1.3190 led some sellers to take profit. The bulls will need to push above the 1.3250 next to the 20-day moving average to get a foothold. On the downside, the psychological level of 1.3000 is a critical floor to keep the current rebound valid. USDJPY takes a breather The Japanese yen struggles as the BOJ pledges to stick with stimulus. Sentiment turned extremely bullish after the pair rallied above December 2016’s high at 118.60. The RSI went overbought on both hourly and daily charts, and the overextension could refrain buyers from chasing bids. Trend followers may be waiting to buy at pullbacks. 117.70 is the first level to gauge buying interest and 116.80 is the second line of support. A rebound above 119.00 would extend gains beyond the psychological level of 120.00. SPX 500 tests resistance The S&P 500 bounced higher after Russia averted a bond default. Price action has stabilized above last June’s lows around 4140 where a triple bottom indicates a strong interest in keeping the index afloat. A previous attempt above 4350 forced sellers to cover but hit resistance at 4420. A bullish close above this key level on the daily chart could trigger a runaway rally. 4590 would be the next target when sentiment turns around. Otherwise, a lack of conviction from the buy-side would send the index to test 4250.
Large Forex Speculators boosted their bets of Commodity Currencies this week

Large Forex Speculators boosted their bets of Commodity Currencies this week

Invest Macro Invest Macro 19.03.2022 17:45
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the strong speculator sentiment for the commodity currencies in the currency futures contracts. The Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar all saw boosts in their bets that either pushed their bullish standings higher or sharply reduced their bearish levels this week. The Australian dollar saw the largest improvement with a huge net gain of over +33,000 contracts this week which marked the largest one-week increase in the past three hundred and sixty-five weeks, dating all the way back to March of 2015. This week’s gain dropped the AUD’s current bearish standing down to -44,856 contracts from approximately -78,000 contracts in the previous week. The New Zealand dollar contracts saw a one-week gain of +16,032 contracts which marked its largest one-week rise in the past one hundred and seventeen weeks (back to December of 2017). This rise brought the NZD speculator positions out of bearish territory for the first time in fourteen weeks to a very small bullish level of +3,653 contracts. Finally, the Canadian dollar contracts increased by a net position of +10,094 contracts this week after falling in four out of the previous five weeks. This climb in speculative bets brings the current CAD bullish standing to the best level of the past six weeks. Overall, the currency markets with higher speculator bets this week were the New Zealand dollar (16,032 contracts), Canadian dollar (10,094 contracts), Swiss franc (4,481 contracts) and the Australian dollar (33,339 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-5,664 contracts), Mexican peso (-63,593 contracts), Euro (-40,050 contracts), Japanese yen (-6,484 contracts), Brazil real (-6,333 contracts), British pound sterling (-16,535 contracts), Russian ruble (-263 contracts) and Bitcoin (-75 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-15-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 47,574 62 28,380 75 -31,969 21 3,589 56 EUR 666,010 70 18,794 41 -42,629 64 23,835 14 GBP 188,323 31 -29,061 53 37,279 52 -8,218 39 JPY 215,484 65 -62,340 29 87,597 80 -25,257 0 CHF 43,356 19 -5,229 61 17,460 50 -12,231 27 CAD 143,863 26 17,740 65 -13,145 50 -4,595 21 AUD 124,521 25 -44,856 43 48,640 55 -3,784 43 NZD 39,200 23 3,653 77 -1,815 28 -1,838 31 MXN 102,749 4 -10,576 23 7,848 76 2,728 55 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 68,874 65 44,163 94 -46,800 6 2,637 97 Bitcoin 10,198 53 190 98 -453 0 263 19   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 28,380 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,664 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,044 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 83.6 3.1 11.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.9 70.3 3.5 – Net Position: 28,380 -31,969 3,589 – Gross Longs: 39,767 1,452 5,242 – Gross Shorts: 11,387 33,421 1,653 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.5 to 1 0.0 to 1 3.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 74.7 21.5 55.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.7 16.5 -40.7   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 18,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -40,050 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,844 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.3 55.4 11.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.5 61.8 7.7 – Net Position: 18,794 -42,629 23,835 – Gross Longs: 202,040 369,253 75,191 – Gross Shorts: 183,246 411,882 51,356 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 40.8 63.7 13.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.4 4.2 -6.5   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -29,061 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -16,535 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,526 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.2 66.9 12.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.7 47.1 16.9 – Net Position: -29,061 37,279 -8,218 – Gross Longs: 32,442 125,994 23,650 – Gross Shorts: 61,503 88,715 31,868 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.1 51.7 38.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.9 5.0 -6.1   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -62,340 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,484 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -55,856 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.8 75.7 7.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 44.7 35.0 18.9 – Net Position: -62,340 87,597 -25,257 – Gross Longs: 34,016 163,089 15,533 – Gross Shorts: 96,356 75,492 40,790 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.6 79.7 0.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.1 4.1 -13.6   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,229 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,481 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,710 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.4 66.3 20.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.5 26.1 48.4 – Net Position: -5,229 17,460 -12,231 – Gross Longs: 5,808 28,761 8,768 – Gross Shorts: 11,037 11,301 20,999 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.8 50.5 27.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.3 1.0 -11.5   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 17,740 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,094 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,646 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.0 41.3 20.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 20.6 50.4 23.5 – Net Position: 17,740 -13,145 -4,595 – Gross Longs: 47,406 59,344 29,213 – Gross Shorts: 29,666 72,489 33,808 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 64.9 50.0 20.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.5 9.0 -23.8   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -44,856 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 33,339 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,195 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 19.5 62.3 15.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 55.5 23.3 18.6 – Net Position: -44,856 48,640 -3,784 – Gross Longs: 24,281 77,621 19,378 – Gross Shorts: 69,137 28,981 23,162 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.2 55.2 43.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 32.4 -35.4 30.4   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 3,653 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 16,032 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,379 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 54.8 37.4 6.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.5 42.1 10.9 – Net Position: 3,653 -1,815 -1,838 – Gross Longs: 21,493 14,671 2,417 – Gross Shorts: 17,840 16,486 4,255 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 77.4 27.6 30.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 25.8 -24.4 5.5   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -10,576 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -63,593 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,017 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 38.1 55.1 6.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.4 47.5 3.5 – Net Position: -10,576 7,848 2,728 – Gross Longs: 39,164 56,610 6,302 – Gross Shorts: 49,740 48,762 3,574 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 22.8 76.1 54.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.8 4.9 -1.7   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 44,163 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,333 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,496 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.1 13.7 6.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.0 81.7 2.3 – Net Position: 44,163 -46,800 2,637 – Gross Longs: 55,181 9,444 4,239 – Gross Shorts: 11,018 56,244 1,602 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.0 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 93.8 5.6 97.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 56.5 -55.9 -3.0   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 7,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,806 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.6 60.6 2.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 0.5 94.7 4.7 – Net Position: 7,543 -7,150 -393 – Gross Longs: 7,658 12,679 593 – Gross Shorts: 115 19,829 986 – Long to Short Ratio: 66.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.2 69.1 23.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.6 16.7 -18.8   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 190 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -75 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 265 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 78.3 2.7 10.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 76.5 7.2 7.5 – Net Position: 190 -453 263 – Gross Longs: 7,989 279 1,029 – Gross Shorts: 7,799 732 766 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 98.4 5.1 18.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.0 3.0 -2.0   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Bank of Japan will not keep the yen from falling

Bank of Japan will not keep the yen from falling

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 22.03.2022 14:53
The Japanese yen has fallen for the third week in a row, and the amplitude of this decline has become rather scary on Tuesday. It seems yen traders' stop-lines have been blown as the markets have become increasingly aware of the monetary authorities' reaction to inflation and the outlook for the balance of payments. In addition, over the past three weeks, we have seen a careful return of investors to risky assets, which is causing the yen to sell-off.USDJPY is trading above 120.70, which was last seen six years ago, having gained more than 5% since March 7th, while GBPJPY has soared 6% and EURJPY is up 7%. Against the yen are new comments from the Bank of Japan, which shows no sign of a change in its monetary policy, while central banks in other parts of the world issue increasingly hawkish statements.The pressure on the yen is exacerbated by its dependence on oil and metal imports, which widens the trade deficit of the historically export-oriented country. The value of exports in February 2022 was 18% higher than in 2020, while imports soared by 49%. Booming prices for energy, metals, and agricultural products set Japan up for a further plunge into trade deficits.In former years, sustained surpluses helped the yen maintain its strength or even strengthen during periods of market turbulence, ignoring anaemic economic growth and rising government debt to GDP levels.The resulting crisis in commodity prices will force central banks to unambiguously choose their policy towards government bonds on the balance sheet and the general level of government debt. While the USA and Europe are tightening their rhetoric on interest rates, Japan is deliberately lagging. At the same time, the government maintains an apparent calm, pointing out that there are both disadvantages and advantages of a weak exchange rate. The yen problem is not bothering the authorities right now.We should wait and see if investor confidence in the Japanese currency is undermined. Losing control of the exchange rate would risk an escalation of selling into Japanese government debt more than 250% of GDP. The only realistic soft solution is to deflate the national debt by accelerating inflation, but only if the central bank remains a big buyer to prevent an appreciation of the national debt. Such a policy would lead to sustained pressure on the yen.
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 15/3/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 15/3/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 23.03.2022 19:52
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 15/3/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index fell by 5,664 contracts last week. This change is the result of a decrease in long positions by 6,264 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 600 contracts. The decline in total net speculator positions occurred last week in the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen. The increase in total net positions occurred in the New Zealand dollar, the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc. The significant growth in positions of large speculators in the commodity currencies AUD, NZD and CAD can be explained by the rising prices of commodities exported by these countries. A large number of options and futures contracts expired last week, which explains the large decline in open interest for each currency. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators Date USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Mar 15, 2022 28380 18794 -29061 -44856 3653 -62340 17740 -5229 Mar 08, 2022 34044 58844 -12526 -78195 -12379 -55856 7646 -9710 Mar 01, 2022 34774 64939 -337 -78336 -14172 -68732 14140 -15248 Feb 22, 2022 36084 59306 -5809 -84080 -11551 -63187 9253 -10987 Feb 15, 2022 35386 47581 2237 -86694 -9333 -66162 12170 -9715 Feb 08, 2022 33765 38842 -8545 -85741 -10366 -59148 14886 -9399   Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com The Euro date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 15, 2022 666010 202040 183246 18794 -72980 -40643 -593 -40050 Weak bullish Mar 08, 2022 738990 242683 183839 58844 19015 14298 20393 -6095 Weak bullish Mar 01, 2022 719975 228385 163446 64939 23293 14190 8557 5633 Bullish Feb 22, 2022 696682 214195 154889 59306 -5365 -3704 -15429 11725 Bullish Feb 15, 2022 702047 217899 170318 47581 1949 -1074 -9813 8739 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 700098 218973 180131 38842 14667 5410 -3716 9126 Býčí         Total Change -19421 -11523 -601 -10922     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 18 794 contracts last week and they are down by 40 050 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 40,643 contracts and an increase in short positions by 593 contracts. These data suggest a weakening of the bullish sentiment in the euro. The open interest, which fell by 72,980 contracts in the last week, shows that the upward movement that occurred in the euro last week was not supported by a volume and it is therefore a weak price action. The euro continues to weaken under the influence of the war in Ukraine. Last week it returned to a resistance level which could be an opportunity to trade short in the event of a downtrend.  Long-term resistance: 1.1120 – 1.1150. Support: 1.080-1.0850. The next support is at 1.0640-1.0700.   The British pound date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 15, 2022 188323 32442 61503 -29061 -57989 -18540 -2005 -16535 Bearish Mar 08, 2022 246312 50982 63508 -12526 34443 3303 15492 -12189 Bearish Mar 01, 2022 211869 47679 48016 -337 23426 5430 -42 5472 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 188443 42249 48058 -5809 -6859 -7902 144 -8046 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 195302 50151 47914 2237 -2646 5442 -5340 10782 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 197948 44709 53254 -8545 13941 15112 52 15060 Weak bearish         Total Change 4316 2845 8301 -5456     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week amounted to -29,061 contracts and they are down by 16,535 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 18,540 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 2,005 contracts. This suggests bearish sentiment as the total net positions of large speculators are negative while there is also their further decline. Open interest, which fell by 57,989 contracts last week, means that the rise in the pound price that occurred last week was not supported by volume and it is therefore a weak price action. Risk off sentiment due to the war in Ukraine continues to weigh on the pound and therefore the pound is weakening strongly. Although the Bank of England raised interest rates by 0.25% to 0.75% last week, it also warned of a decline in economic growth as a result of the war in Ukraine. The change in central bank rhetoric is a bearish signal for the pound. Long-term resistance: 1.3180-1.3210.  Next resistance is near 1.3270 – 1.3330. Support is near 1.3000.     The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 15, 2022 124521 24281 69137 -44856 -72573 4760 -28579 33339 Weak bearish Mar 08, 2022 197094 19521 97716 -78195 7427 6801 6660 141 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 189667 12720 91056 -78336 -2912 1167 -4577 5744 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 192579 11553 95633 -84080 1 -139 -2753 2614 Weak bearish Feb 15, 2022 192578 11692 98386 -86694 -3825 -5631 -4678 -953 Bearish Feb 08, 2022 196403 17323 103064 -85741 -510 -1512 4400 -5912 Bearish         Total Change -72392 5446 -29527 34973     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1     The total net positions of speculators last week reached - 44 856 contracts, having increased by 33 339 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 4,706 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 28,579 contracts. This data suggests a weakening of bearish sentiment in the Australian dollar. Last week we saw a decline in open interest of 72,573 contracts. This means that the upward move that occurred last week was not supported by a volume and it was therefore a weak move as new money did not flow into the market. The Australian dollar strengthened strongly again last week and reached a resistance level. Long-term resistance: 0.7370-0.7440 Long-term support: 0.7160-0.7180.  A strong support is near 0.7080 – 0.7120.   The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 15, 2022 39200 21493 17840 3653 -14050 5718 -10314 16032 Bullish Mar 08, 2022 53250 15775 28154 -12379 2861 5290 3497 1793 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 50389 10485 24657 -14172 -6247 -6858 -4237 -2621 Bearish Feb 22, 2022 56636 17343 28894 -11551 -7469 -7580 -5362 -2218 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 64105 24923 34256 -9333 9228 7755 6722 1033 Weak bearish Feb 08, 2022 54877 17168 27534 -10366 -3590 -2037 -3369 1332 Weak bearish         Total Change -19267 2288 -13063 15351     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 3,653 contracts last week and they are up by 16,032 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 5,718 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 10,314 contracts. This data suggests that there was bullish sentiment on the New Zealand dollar last week. Open interest fell significantly by 14,050 contracts last week. Therefore, the upward movement in the NZDUSD that occurred last week was not supported by volume and therefore the move was weak. The NZDUSD strengthened strongly last week and reached the resistance level. Long-term resistance: 0.690 – 0.6930 Long-term support: 0.6730-0.6740 and the next support is at 0.6590 – 0.6600.   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
Falling Japanese yen suggests a changing world order

Falling Japanese yen suggests a changing world order

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 24.03.2022 15:23
The collapse of the Japanese yen continues, and so far, there are no signs of a trend reversal. The rise in the Yen is often linked to capital flight from risky assets, and the weakening is a sign of increased demand for risky assets. But that explanation hardly fits with what is happening now. We likely see the start of a significant reassessment by the markets of Japan's position in the financial system. In a worst-case scenario, this may turn into a debt crisis in the Land of the Rising Sun and be an even bigger disaster for financial markets than the eurozone debt crisis of a decade ago.The starting point for the weakening of the Yen was at the start of February. At that time, equities were in demand as a haven for capital to maintain the purchasing power of investments. The flow into equities was interrupted by the war in Ukraine but accelerated in the last couple of weeks on signs that these events have hyped up the processes that were taking place before. And these processes are now most visible in the dynamics of the Japanese yen against those currencies where the central bank can respond adequately to inflation.Since the start of February, the USDJPY has risen by 6.5%, and almost all of this increase has taken place since March 7th, taking the pair back to levels last seen at the end of 2015. A much more impressive rally is taking place in the Aussie and Kiwi against the Yen. Since the start of February, they have soared by more than 12%. So far this month, the strengthening is the largest in 11 years for AUDJPY and in more than 12 years for NZDJPY.The interest rate differential game, which was so beloved by traders in Japan before the global financial crisis, has found a second life. Australia and New Zealand have the economic potential to raise interest rates, as they are experiencing a surge in exports due to the boom in their export prices. However, the situation in Japan looks considerably more alarming, as Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio has risen by 77 percentage points to 170% since the financial crisis. Permanent QE from the Bank of Japan has kept government debt costs down but doesn't solve the problem.In the last decade, Japan has turned into a net commodity importer due to its growing dependence on energy and metals and increasing competition from China and Korea. The exchange rate should act as a natural mechanism to stabilise trade in this situation.But this adjustment is difficult for debt-laden Japan because selling currency would de facto mean selling bonds denominated in that currency. Under these circumstances, the Bank of Japan will either have to openly accept that it will finance the government (i.e. increase purchases despite inflation) or soften QE. The first option risks triggering a historic revaluation of the Yen. The second option would deal a blow to the economy and finances by raising questions about whether Japan can service its debt.
Large Currency Speculators sharply cut back on Canadian dollar bets

Large Currency Speculators sharply cut back on Canadian dollar bets

Invest Macro Invest Macro 27.03.2022 13:29
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the sharp pullback in the Canadian dollar currency futures contracts. Canadian dollar speculators cut back on their bullish bets by a total of -22,680 contracts, the largest change among currencies this week and one week after CAD saw bullish bets rise by over +10,000 contracts (bringing the speculator standing to a six-week high). This week’s decline dropped the total net speculator standing back into bearish territory (-4,940 contracts) for the first time in the past ten weeks, dating back to January 11th. The major commodity currencies (Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar) all saw pullbacks in their speculator bets this week after strong rises last week. The only currency markets with higher speculator bets this week were the US Dollar Index (1,255 contracts) and the Euro (5,049 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Japanese yen (-16,142 contracts), Brazil real (-2,599 contracts), Swiss franc (-3,195 contracts), British pound sterling (-8,183 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-1,133 contracts), Canadian dollar (-22,680 contracts), Russian ruble (-263 contracts) and Bitcoin (-190 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-22-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 51,952 72 29,635 77 -33,521 19 3,886 59 EUR 658,817 66 23,843 42 -46,378 63 22,535 12 GBP 195,712 36 -37,244 47 50,390 59 -13,146 28 JPY 248,221 87 -78,482 18 104,790 88 -26,308 0 CHF 44,911 21 -8,424 55 20,499 54 -12,075 28 CAD 124,090 13 -4,940 43 -7,565 54 12,505 55 AUD 127,767 28 -51,189 37 48,388 55 2,801 59 NZD 35,256 15 2,520 75 -2,069 27 -451 47 MXN 134,766 19 -18,051 20 13,919 79 4,132 61 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 70,832 68 41,564 91 -44,463 8 2,899 100 Bitcoin 11,274 61 0 94 -481 0 481 24   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 29,635 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,255 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,380 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 83.8 3.2 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.8 67.7 3.0 – Net Position: 29,635 -33,521 3,886 – Gross Longs: 43,561 1,665 5,434 – Gross Shorts: 13,926 35,186 1,548 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.1 to 1 0.0 to 1 3.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.9 18.9 59.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.1 12.1 -34.7   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 23,843 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,049 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,794 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.4 54.3 11.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.8 61.3 8.1 – Net Position: 23,843 -46,378 22,535 – Gross Longs: 207,051 357,492 75,970 – Gross Shorts: 183,208 403,870 53,435 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.3 62.6 11.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.6 7.6 -19.7   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -37,244 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -8,183 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,061 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.7 70.4 9.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 35.8 44.7 16.6 – Net Position: -37,244 50,390 -13,146 – Gross Longs: 32,753 137,829 19,316 – Gross Shorts: 69,997 87,439 32,462 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.2 59.5 28.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -20.7 24.3 -25.6   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -78,482 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -16,142 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,340 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.8 76.2 7.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.4 34.0 17.7 – Net Position: -78,482 104,790 -26,308 – Gross Longs: 36,676 189,100 17,749 – Gross Shorts: 115,158 84,310 44,057 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 18.4 88.2 0.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -12.2 14.3 -19.3   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,424 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,195 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,229 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.4 68.3 18.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.1 22.6 45.0 – Net Position: -8,424 20,499 -12,075 – Gross Longs: 6,012 30,663 8,143 – Gross Shorts: 14,436 10,164 20,218 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 3.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.2 53.9 27.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.7 4.0 -13.4   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,940 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -22,680 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,740 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.6 47.8 26.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.6 53.9 16.8 – Net Position: -4,940 -7,565 12,505 – Gross Longs: 29,314 59,269 33,406 – Gross Shorts: 34,254 66,834 20,901 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.9 54.1 54.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -19.2 6.8 20.8   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -51,189 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,333 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,856 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.6 59.4 20.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 58.7 21.5 17.8 – Net Position: -51,189 48,388 2,801 – Gross Longs: 23,747 75,916 25,508 – Gross Shorts: 74,936 27,528 22,707 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 37.4 55.0 59.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 32.0 -37.3 37.6   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 2,520 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,133 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,653 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 48.7 40.4 9.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.5 46.2 10.7 – Net Position: 2,520 -2,069 -451 – Gross Longs: 17,156 14,227 3,339 – Gross Shorts: 14,636 16,296 3,790 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 75.5 27.2 46.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.6 -22.8 21.9   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -18,051 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,475 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,576 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.1 51.1 5.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 56.5 40.8 2.0 – Net Position: -18,051 13,919 4,132 – Gross Longs: 58,150 68,880 6,851 – Gross Shorts: 76,201 54,961 2,719 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.3 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 19.6 78.6 60.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.2 7.5 5.5   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 41,564 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,163 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.6 15.3 6.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.0 78.1 2.8 – Net Position: 41,564 -44,463 2,899 – Gross Longs: 55,001 10,863 4,851 – Gross Shorts: 13,437 55,326 1,952 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.2 7.9 100.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.9 -21.5 8.5   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 7,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,806 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.6 60.6 2.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 0.5 94.7 4.7 – Net Position: 7,543 -7,150 -393 – Gross Longs: 7,658 12,679 593 – Gross Shorts: 115 19,829 986 – Long to Short Ratio: 66.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.2 69.1 23.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.6 16.7 -18.8   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 0 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -190 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 190 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 74.7 2.9 11.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 74.7 7.2 6.9 – Net Position: 0 -481 481 – Gross Longs: 8,425 326 1,263 – Gross Shorts: 8,425 807 782 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.3 2.9 23.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.8 -23.4 -0.6   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Euro (EUR), Japanese Yen And Dollar (USD) Interactions. Dollar Index (DXY) Looks Quite Fine. A Year Full Of Fed Decisions...

Euro (EUR), Japanese Yen And Dollar (USD) Interactions. Dollar Index (DXY) Looks Quite Fine. A Year Full Of Fed Decisions...

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 28.03.2022 12:44
There has been a lot of talk lately about the decline of the US dollar's reserve status. However, investors and traders should separate long-term trends from short-term market impulses. Reserve fund managers often prefer to refrain from active selling so as not to cause unnecessary market turbulence, so all reserve trends are stretched out over decades. As long as there is no real threat to the existence of the dollar and the solvency of the US government, managers will avoid making active moves to sell dollar assets. And all the revolutionary changes, such as switching to national currencies, will only result in CBs buying fewer new dollars. But it has little effect on the exchange rate. Right now, we are seeing the opposite picture, as the main competitors are under pressure. Investors are getting rid of the Japanese yen as the Bank of Japan accelerates its currency printing to buy bonds out of the market to stem rising yields. The local government is overburdened with debt, and the economy is still stalling. The only market solution is a devaluation of the yen, which would make exports from Japan more competitive and boost domestic spending. The single currency is suffering from a spike in energy prices and economic problems related to the war in Ukraine. Trading below 1.1000, the EURUSD pair is now where it was heading for the last six months before the pandemic. The medium-term outlook for the dollar is largely influenced by the extent to which the Fed will be able to implement policy tightening. More accurately, how Fed policy compares with the policy of the Bank of Japan, the ECB, or another major central bank. The Fed is clearly acting with greater amplitude, setting itself up for 7 rate hikes this year, which is far more than one would expect from Japan or the eurozone. Moreover, the US remains much further away from the war in Ukraine in business and trade terms than its biggest competitors, which means it can continue to benefit from capital inflows as a haven.
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Intraday Market Analysis – JPY Struggles For Bids

Jing Ren Jing Ren 29.03.2022 08:40
USDJPY seeks support The Japanese yen recouped some losses after a drop in February’s unemployment rate. The pair surged to August 2015’s high and the psychological level of 125.00. An overwhelmingly overbought RSI may cause a pullback if short-term buyers start to unwind their bets. As the market mood stays upbeat, trend followers could be waiting to jump in at a discount. 122.20 is the closest level if the greenback needs to gather support. A break above the current resistance would propel the pair to new highs above 127.00. AUDUSD hits major resistance The Australian dollar stalls as caution prevails ahead of major economic data. The rally slowed down at last October’s peak at 0.7550. A combination of profit-taking and fresh selling weighs on the Aussie. The bulls may see a pullback as an opportunity to accumulate in hope of a new round of rally. 0.7400 from the latest bullish breakout would be key support should this happen. On the upside, an extended rally could propel the pair to last June’s highs around 0.7770 and pave the way for a reversal in the medium-term. US 100 to test major resistance Growth stocks rose amid a sell-off in the bond market. Short-term sentiment remains bullish after a series of higher lows which indicates sustained buying interest. The Nasdaq 100 is heading to the daily resistance at 15050. A bearish RSI divergence suggests a deceleration in the rally, foreshadowing a potential retracement. 14600 is the support and its breach may trigger a sell-off towards 14200 which sits at the base of the recent breakout. A close above the said hurdle may put the index back on track in the weeks to come.
Fed Expectations Amid Mixed Data: Wishful Thinking or Practical Pause?

Japanese Yen (JPY) Being Healed, Nikkei Has Added 11%, Wheat Has Decreased By Ca. 8%

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 30.03.2022 14:18
March 30, 2022  $USD, BOJ, China, Currency Movement, German, Inflation, Japan, Russia, Spain, Ukraine, Yield Curve Overview:  A pullback in US yields yesterday and the Bank of Japan's stepped-up efforts to defend the Yield Curve Control policy helped extend the yen's recovery.  This spurred profit-taking on Japanese stocks, where the Nikkei had rallied around 11% over the past two weeks.  Hong Kong, China, and Taiwan led the regional advance.  However, facing a surge in inflation (Spain and German states) and a jump in European natural gas prices (~9%) is snapping the Stoxx 600's three-day advance.  US futures are trading with a heavier bias.  The US 10-year yield has edged a little higher to 2.40%, while the two-year that briefly traded above the 10-year yield yesterday is off about four basis points.  European benchmark yields are 3-6 bp higher.  The greenback is trading lower against all of the major currencies, led by the yen's recovery.  After poking above JPY125 to start the week, the dollar fell to around JPY121.30 today before steadying.  The Canadian and Australian dollars are the laggards with minor gains.  Among emerging market currencies, the Turkish lira is the notable exception, and is posting a modest decline.  Gold appeared to post a bullish hammer pattern yesterday but there has not been much follow-through and the yellow metal is in around a $6 range on either side of $1922.  May WTI is also in a narrow range--mostly $105-$107 today. Copper and iron ore are trading firmer.  Wheat is still soft after losing around 8% over the past couple of sessions.   Asia Pacific The Bank of Japan stepped-up its efforts to cap interest rates earlier today.  It increased the amount of bonds it bought at its regular scheduled operation.  It offered to buy JPY600 bln (instead of JPY450 bln) 3–5-year bond, and JPY725 bln (instead of JPY425 bln) of 5-10-year bonds, in addition to the pre-announced defense of the 0.25% cap on the 10-year bond.  It did not increase the amount of longer-term bonds.  Tomorrow, the BOJ is expected to announce next quarters asset purchase plans.  Although BOJ Governor Kuroda, who met with Prime Minister Kishida earlier today, does not seem concerned about the yen's weakness, Finance Minister Suzuki seemed more cautious.  He suggested continuing to check if the yen's weakness is harming the economy.  For example, the weaker yen is aggravating the surge in energy prices, which Kishida was to cushion the blow to households and businesses. If intervention is best understood as an escalation ladder, as we suggest, then this might be seen as a low rung.  Separately, Japan reported that retail sales fell by 0.8% in February, which was more than twice the decline expected by the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey.  It also drove the year-over-year rate below zero (-0.8%) for the first time since last September.  Beijing has offered some economic support for Shanghai, but the surge in Covid there, and lockdowns there and elsewhere, are seeing economists slash growth forecast and lift inflation projections.  China's March PMI will be released tomorrow. A poor report is expected, and the risks are on the downside.  Thus far, though, officials have used targeted measures and have not provided the overall economy with new support. The dollar did not trade for long above JPY125 on Monday, but it seems to have completed something and the greenback has traded down to JPY121.30 today.   The (38.2%) retracement of this month's rally is around JPY121.10 and the next retracement (50%) is a little below JPY120.  Month-end and fiscal-year end considerations may also be at work but is often used as a catch-all narrative.  Note that reports suggested that Japanese retail accounts were beginning to buy yen toward the end of last week.  The Australian dollar bounced off four-day lows slightly below $0.7460 yesterday and settled above $0.7500.  It is firm today but below this year's high set Monday near $0.7540.  It still feels like it is consolidating.  The broad US dollar weakness was evident against the Chinese yuan today.  It is trading nearly 0.25% lower, the most in about two weeks.  The greenback is trading at a nine-day low near the 20-day moving average, slightly below CNY6.35.  That is also around the middle of this month's range (~CNY6.3080-CNY6.3860).  The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at CNY6.3566.  The median projection in Bloomberg's survey was CNY6.3560.   Europe The common narrative now is that Putin initially anticipated a quick overwhelming victory over Ukraine and as it has stalled, he is falling back on Plan B.  Plan B is to secure the territorial claims of the two separatist regions and later incorporate them into Russia. Russia is curtailing the use of Hryvnia in the occupied areas and introducing the rouble. This military objective has not been met. Turning Clausewitz on his head, the political negotiations are a continuation of the war by other means. Putin has already achieved a key strategic goal; Ukraine will foreswear joining NATO.  One cannot help but wonder that if Zelenskiy accepted this more than a month ago, the course of events may have been different. The date for the next round of negotiations have not been set.  In a war, the losing side is more anxious for negotiations by definition. After consolidating its forces and enlarging the field of control of the separatist regions, Russia can then be in a position to negotiate.  This seems to be the key to the timeline that can lead to a sustainable cease-fire.  The cost of rebuilding Ukraine, which had serious developmental challenges before the war, will fall to the EU, IMF, World Bank, and UN.   A surge in eurozone inflation was expected, but the Spanish and German state figures are over the top. The market (Bloomberg median forecast) was for a strong 1.3% monthly increase in Spain, instead the national figure jumped 3%. The harmonized measure surged 3.9% this month and lifted the year-over-year rate to 9.8% from 7.6% in February.  Details are sparse in the initial estimate, but the Economic Minister suggested that three-quarters of the rise was due to food and energy.  Still, the core rate rose by 0.4% on the month. Most of the German states reporting CPI figures today showed a 2.6%-2.7% month-over-month increase in their CPI. The national and harmonized figures are due shortly.  There seems to be upside risk to the expectations that the year-over-year rate of the harmonized measures (HICP) will accelerate to 6.8% from 5.5% in February.  The aggregate preliminary estimate for the euro area is due Friday.  The euro rallied yesterday on the hopes that the Russian invasion of Ukraine may be near the endgame and is extending the gains today amid further positioning squaring.  We note that that the US premium over Germany on two-year money has reversed sharply lower.  It peaked on Monday above 245 bp and is testing 230 bp today.  The German two-year yield is up around seven basis points today and is again trying to secure a foothold above zero for the first time since 2014.  Yesterday's attempt was rebuffed.  The surging inflation will strengthen the hawks’ hands, many of whom see scope for two hikes this year that could bring the deposit rate to zero. The euro is trading at its best level since March 1, which was the last time it traded above $1.12. Its gains have now retraced a little more than half of this month's decline (~$1.1150).  The next technical target is the $1.1200-$1.1230 area.  Sterling is a laggard.  It is trading inside yesterday's range (~$1.3050-$1.3160). There may be scope for additional gains, albeit marginal, as the intraday momentum indicators are stretched.  We suspect the $1.3180-$1.3200 cap may suffice today.   America The US 2-10-year yield curve briefly inverted yesterday before finishing around three basis points.  It is drawing a great deal of attention, but like any statistic it needs to be placed in a context. Few believe the US is recession-bound.  The median forecast in Bloomberg's survey has the US economy growing 3.5% this year and 2.3% next year.  This is still above the Fed's estimates of the long-term growth trend (1.6%-2.2%.). The most pessimistic forecasts in Bloomberg's survey do have growth less than 1% this year or next.  That said, there are those who are warning of a recession, including ourselves, and the yield curve did not enter the picture.  Interest rates are not waiting for the Fed's meetings to increase, as the 93 bp increase in the 2-year yield this month.  The halving of the deficit (as a percentage of GDP) this year still strikes us as an under-appreciated drag.  The rise in energy and food prices cuts the purchasing power of households.  US inflation expectations are not just a function of what the Fed is or is not doing.  The correlation of the change in the 10-year breakeven (the difference between the yield of the inflation protected security and the conventional note) and oil (the front-month light sweet crude oil contact, WTI) over the past 30-days is nearly 0.65, the highest in seven months. The 60-day correlation is almost 0.55, a five month-high. The price of May WTI has risen by almost 25% ($20 a barrel) net since the US warned that a Russian attack could happen at any moment on February 11.  OPEC+ meets tomorrow and there still seems little chance that it will boost output.  Most of OPEC's spare capacity is in Saudi Arabia (~1.6 mln barrels a day) and the UAE (~1.3 mln barrels a day).   Today's ADP private sector jobs estimate is the data highlight. We remind that it is not a particularly useful guide to the BLS estimate for the particular month, though it gets the larger trend fairly right.  The median estimate for Friday's nonfarm payroll report has crept up in recent days to stand at 490k. The US also reports another revision to Q4 21 GDP.  It may be left at 7.0%.  With Q1 22 nearly over, the market will not be sensitive to Q4 data.  The economy is expected to have slowed to around 1.0%-1.5% this year from 7% last.  The Fed's Barkin and George speak today. While George is a voting member of the FOMC this year, Barkin, like Harker and Bostic, who spoke yesterday, do not.   Mexico reports February unemployment today.  It may have ticked up slightly.  Canada's economic calendar is light, but there is much talk about Ontario's imposition of a 20% tax on foreign purchases and real estate in the province.  The "speculation levy" is meant to slow the surge in house prices. Lastly, late yesterday Chile hiked its overnight target rate 150 bp to 7.0%.  This was a bit less than expected and the central bank indicated that it may not need to make such big moves going forward. Latam countries hiked rates early and many aggressively, and ideas that the tightening cycles may end later this year appears to be encouraging flows into local bond markets.  That said, the swaps market has about 300 bp of additional hikes over the next six months before a cut in rates toward the end of the year or early 2023.    The US dollar is near the recent trough against the Canadian dollar (~CAD1.2465-CAD1.2475).  Below there is the year's low around CAD1.2450.  A break targets the CAD1.2400 area. However, the intraday momentum indicators suggest the greenback may bounce first in early North American activity and a retest of CAD1.2500-CAD1.2515 would not be surprising.  Meanwhile, the greenback is slipping to new lows for the year against the Mexican peso (~MXN19.9120).  The next notable chart support is closer to MXN19.85, a shelf from last September. Here, too, the intraday momentum indicators favor a US dollar bounce in the North American morning.     Disclaimer
Currency Speculators continue Japanese Yen bearishness, push bearish bets to 20-week high

Currency Speculators continue Japanese Yen bearishness, push bearish bets to 20-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 02.04.2022 19:33
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data is the increase of bearish bets in the Japanese yen currency futures contracts. Japanese yen speculators raised their bearish bets for a third straight week this week and for the fourth time in the past five weeks. Over this five-week time-frame, yen bets have now dropped by a total of -38,944 contracts, going from -63,187 net positions on February 22nd to -102,131 net positions this week. This weakness in speculator sentiment has pushed the current Yen positioning to the most bearish level in the past twenty weeks, dating back to November 9th when net positions over over -105,000 contracts. Since the new year, yen speculator positions have averaged -70,432 weekly contracts, underscoring the sentiment weakness and compared to the 2021 weekly positions average of -44,182 contracts (positions averaged +17,100 weekly contracts in 2020). Japanese yen prices have also been extremely weak versus the other major currencies. Currently, the yen has recorded losses against all of the majors year-to-date and many majors currencies are trading at the highest levels since 2015 versus the yen. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the US Dollar Index (1,306 contracts), Australian dollar (1,583 contracts), Brazil real (1,052 contracts), Canadian dollar (3,405 contracts) and the Mexican peso (9,804 contracts). The currencies with declining bets this week were the Japanese yen (-23,649 contracts), Euro (-2,469 contracts), Swiss franc (-3,155 contracts), British pound sterling (-2,826 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-3,387 contracts), Russian ruble (-263 contracts) and Bitcoin (-271 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-29-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 53,967 76 30,941 79 -35,106 16 4,165 62 EUR 662,415 67 21,374 42 -47,348 62 25,974 17 GBP 224,365 54 -40,070 45 52,009 60 -11,939 31 JPY 239,698 82 -102,131 3 124,850 98 -22,719 7 CHF 44,327 20 -11,579 50 23,228 57 -11,649 29 CAD 147,421 28 -1,535 46 -15,518 48 17,053 64 AUD 143,007 39 -49,606 39 40,894 49 8,712 74 NZD 34,881 15 -867 70 -3 30 870 62 MXN 157,779 30 -8,247 24 3,286 74 4,961 64 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 78,894 79 42,616 92 -45,623 7 3,007 100 Bitcoin 12,024 66 -271 89 -411 0 682 28   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 30,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,635 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 83.3 2.8 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.0 67.8 2.8 – Net Position: 30,941 -35,106 4,165 – Gross Longs: 44,970 1,493 5,684 – Gross Shorts: 14,029 36,599 1,519 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.2 to 1 0.0 to 1 3.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 79.2 16.3 62.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.7 10.7 -21.9   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 21,374 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,469 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,843 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.2 55.0 12.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.0 62.1 8.2 – Net Position: 21,374 -47,348 25,974 – Gross Longs: 200,043 364,163 80,321 – Gross Shorts: 178,669 411,511 54,347 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 41.6 62.3 17.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.0 10.7 -19.0   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -40,070 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,826 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,244 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.6 73.3 9.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.5 50.1 15.2 – Net Position: -40,070 52,009 -11,939 – Gross Longs: 30,624 164,519 22,187 – Gross Shorts: 70,694 112,510 34,126 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.1 60.4 30.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -30.5 29.1 -14.2   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -102,131 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -23,649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,482 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.4 83.9 8.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 49.0 31.8 18.0 – Net Position: -102,131 124,850 -22,719 – Gross Longs: 15,274 201,190 20,392 – Gross Shorts: 117,405 76,340 43,111 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.5 98.2 7.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.7 19.1 -5.3   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -11,579 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,155 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,424 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.4 73.2 19.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.5 20.8 45.5 – Net Position: -11,579 23,228 -11,649 – Gross Longs: 3,292 32,430 8,522 – Gross Shorts: 14,871 9,202 20,171 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 3.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.7 57.0 29.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.3 4.9 -7.3   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,535 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,405 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,940 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.0 52.1 24.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.0 62.6 13.4 – Net Position: -1,535 -15,518 17,053 – Gross Longs: 32,429 76,738 36,771 – Gross Shorts: 33,964 92,256 19,718 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.2 48.3 63.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.3 -0.3 28.1   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -49,606 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,189 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.7 56.6 18.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 58.4 28.0 12.7 – Net Position: -49,606 40,894 8,712 – Gross Longs: 33,960 80,885 26,806 – Gross Shorts: 83,566 39,991 18,094 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.0 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.8 49.4 73.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 34.4 -42.4 48.0   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -867 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,387 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,520 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 44.4 44.5 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.9 44.5 8.0 – Net Position: -867 -3 870 – Gross Longs: 15,504 15,507 3,666 – Gross Shorts: 16,371 15,510 2,796 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.8 30.4 61.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 14.2 -18.5 40.7   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -8,247 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 9,804 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,051 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 47.6 46.9 4.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.8 44.8 1.7 – Net Position: -8,247 3,286 4,961 – Gross Longs: 75,081 73,952 7,577 – Gross Shorts: 83,328 70,666 2,616 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 2.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 23.8 74.2 64.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.3 6.4 8.0   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 42,616 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,052 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,564 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 67.3 26.2 6.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.2 84.0 2.3 – Net Position: 42,616 -45,623 3,007 – Gross Longs: 53,065 20,649 4,805 – Gross Shorts: 10,449 66,272 1,798 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.1 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 92.3 6.8 100.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 18.5 -18.9 6.4   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 7,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,806 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.6 60.6 2.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 0.5 94.7 4.7 – Net Position: 7,543 -7,150 -393 – Gross Longs: 7,658 12,679 593 – Gross Shorts: 115 19,829 986 – Long to Short Ratio: 66.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.2 69.1 23.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.6 16.7 -18.8   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -271 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -271 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 0 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.9 3.2 10.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 83.1 6.6 5.2 – Net Position: -271 -411 682 – Gross Longs: 9,722 383 1,302 – Gross Shorts: 9,993 794 620 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.5 8.5 28.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.2 -15.9 5.8   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Currency Speculators boost Australian Dollar bets to best level in 37-weeks

COT Currency Speculators boost Australian Dollar bets to best level in 37-weeks

Invest Macro Invest Macro 09.04.2022 20:09
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the further retreat of bearish bets in the Australian currency futures contracts. Australian dollar speculators reduced their bearish bets for a second straight week this week and for the sixth time in the past seven weeks. Over this seven-week time-frame, Aussie bets have improved by a total of +49,181 contracts, going from -86,694 net positions on February 15th to -37,513 net positions this week. This improvement in speculator sentiment has brought the current net position (-37,513 contracts) to the least bearish level of the past thirty-seven weeks, dating back to July 20th when the net position totaled -35,690 contracts. The speculator level for the Aussie has not registered a bullish or positive net weekly position since May 18th of 2021, a span of forty-seven weeks. Despite the bearish level of speculators, the AUD has been one of the stronger currencies over the past month and has been helped along by the outlook that the Reserve Bank of Australia will start to raise interest rates for the first time since 2010. The currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the US Dollar Index (911 contracts), Australian dollar (12,093 contracts), Mexican peso (9,157 contracts), Euro (5,996 contracts), Brazil real (2,910 contracts), Canadian dollar (8,458 contracts) and Bitcoin (27 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Japanese yen (-1,698 contracts), Swiss franc (-814 contracts), British pound sterling (-1,688 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-702 contracts) and the Russian ruble (-263 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each currency where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Apr-05-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 49,049 65 31,852 81 -35,194 16 3,342 53 EUR 663,589 67 27,370 43 -49,617 62 22,247 11 GBP 238,266 63 -41,758 44 57,779 64 -16,021 22 JPY 242,217 83 -103,829 2 125,224 98 -21,395 10 CHF 40,005 14 -12,393 48 20,743 54 -8,350 39 CAD 157,562 35 6,923 54 -30,414 38 23,491 77 AUD 148,898 44 -37,513 50 22,332 36 15,181 89 NZD 35,788 16 -1,569 69 171 31 1,398 68 MXN 172,712 36 910 28 -5,778 70 4,868 64 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 65,870 61 45,526 95 -47,961 4 2,435 93 Bitcoin 11,374 61 -244 89 -397 0 641 28   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 31,852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 911 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,941 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 83.7 2.9 10.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.7 74.6 3.9 – Net Position: 31,852 -35,194 3,342 – Gross Longs: 41,038 1,417 5,243 – Gross Shorts: 9,186 36,611 1,901 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.5 to 1 0.0 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 80.7 16.1 53.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.3 10.3 -21.2   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 27,370 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,996 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,374 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.3 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.8 53.8 11.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.7 61.3 8.4 – Net Position: 27,370 -49,617 22,247 – Gross Longs: 210,914 357,140 77,946 – Gross Shorts: 183,544 406,757 55,699 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.4 61.7 11.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.8 13.7 -27.3   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -41,758 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,688 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,070 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.1 73.6 8.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.6 49.4 15.1 – Net Position: -41,758 57,779 -16,021 – Gross Longs: 35,873 175,429 19,923 – Gross Shorts: 77,631 117,650 35,944 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.9 63.9 22.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -25.9 28.2 -24.4   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -103,829 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,698 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,131 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.0 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.0 84.7 7.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.9 33.0 16.8 – Net Position: -103,829 125,224 -21,395 – Gross Longs: 14,583 205,209 19,190 – Gross Shorts: 118,412 79,985 40,585 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.4 98.4 10.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -25.7 21.2 -4.3   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -12,393 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -814 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,579 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.6 73.5 21.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 35.6 21.6 42.6 – Net Position: -12,393 20,743 -8,350 – Gross Longs: 1,860 29,392 8,694 – Gross Shorts: 14,253 8,649 17,044 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 3.4 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 48.3 54.2 38.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.5 1.8 -0.7   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 6,923 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,458 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,535 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.7 49.4 26.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.3 68.7 11.1 – Net Position: 6,923 -30,414 23,491 – Gross Longs: 37,325 77,906 40,906 – Gross Shorts: 30,402 108,320 17,415 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 54.4 37.6 76.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.3 -11.7 37.0   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -37,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,093 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,606 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.4 53.9 21.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.6 38.9 11.5 – Net Position: -37,513 22,332 15,181 – Gross Longs: 34,871 80,207 32,313 – Gross Shorts: 72,384 57,875 17,132 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.1 35.5 89.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 43.2 -55.1 66.3   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,569 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -867 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.1 44.3 12.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 47.5 43.8 8.1 – Net Position: -1,569 171 1,398 – Gross Longs: 15,428 15,863 4,311 – Gross Shorts: 16,997 15,692 2,913 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.6 30.7 67.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.7 -21.2 43.0   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 910 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,157 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,247 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 45.6 49.6 4.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.1 53.0 1.6 – Net Position: 910 -5,778 4,868 – Gross Longs: 78,728 85,690 7,698 – Gross Shorts: 77,818 91,468 2,830 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.7 70.4 63.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.8 6.4 2.8   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 45,526 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,910 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,616 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 76.7 16.4 6.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.6 89.2 2.9 – Net Position: 45,526 -47,961 2,435 – Gross Longs: 50,518 10,795 4,319 – Gross Shorts: 4,992 58,756 1,884 – Long to Short Ratio: 10.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 95.1 4.5 93.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.7 -20.4 -2.4   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 7,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,806 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.6 60.6 2.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 0.5 94.7 4.7 – Net Position: 7,543 -7,150 -393 – Gross Longs: 7,658 12,679 593 – Gross Shorts: 115 19,829 986 – Long to Short Ratio: 66.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.2 69.1 23.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.6 16.7 -18.8   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -244 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 27 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -271 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.5 3.8 11.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 79.6 7.3 6.0 – Net Position: -244 -397 641 – Gross Longs: 8,811 437 1,322 – Gross Shorts: 9,055 834 681 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 89.1 9.6 27.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.8 -11.3 2.3   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 29/3/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 29/3/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 11.04.2022 06:40
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 29/3/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 1,306 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in long positions by 1,409 contracts and an increase in short positions by 103 contracts. Growth in total net positions occurred last week in the euro, the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar. There were declines in the total net positions of large speculators in the British pound, the New Zealand dollar, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. In the Japanese yen, in particular, the decline in total net positions of large speculators has been very strong. Over the past five weeks, total net positions have decreased by 38 944 contracts. The total net positions of large speculators are the most bearish for the yen in the last 20 weeks. This may be due to the Bank of Japan's continuing dovish monetary policy to support Japanese economic growth. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short.   Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Mar 29, 2022 30941 21374 -40070 -49606 -867 -102131 1535 -11579 Mar 22, 2022 29635 23843 -37244 -51189 2520 -78482 -4940 -8424 Mar 15, 2022 28380 18794 -29061 -44856 3653 -62340 17740 -5229 Mar 08, 2022 34044 58844 -12526 -78195 -12379 -55856 7646 -9710 Mar 01, 2022 34774 64939 -337 -78336 -14172 -68732 14140 -15248 Feb 22, 2022 36084 59306 -5809 -84080 -11551 -63187 9253 -10987   Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com   The Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 29, 2022 662415 200043 178669 21374 3598 -7008 -4539 2469 Weak bullish Mar 22, 2022 658817 207051 183208 23843 -7193 5011 -38 5049 Bullish Mar 15, 2022 666010 202040 183246 18794 -72980 -40643 -593 -40050 Weak bullish Mar 08, 2022 738990 242683 183839 58844 19015 14298 20393 -6095 Weak bullish Mar 01, 2022 719975 228385 163446 64939 23293 14190 8557 5633 Bullish Feb 22, 2022 696682 214195 154889 59306 -5365 -3704 -15429 11725 Bullish         Total Change -39632 -17856 8351 -26207     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 21,374 contracts last week, down by 2,469 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 7,008 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 4,539 contracts. This data indicates weak bullish sentiment for the euro. Open interest has risen by 3 598 contracts in the last week. This shows that the upward movement that occurred in the euro last week was supported by a volume and is therefore strong price action. The euro continues to move in a downtrend. Last week it returned to the resistance level from which it bounced downwards. Long-term resistance: 1.1160 – 1.1180 Support: 1.0950-1.0980 and the next support is at 1.080-1.0850.   The British pound   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 29, 2022 224365 30624 70694 -40070 28653 -2129 697 -2826 Bearish Mar 22, 2022 195712 32753 69997 -37244 7389 311 8494 -8183 Bearish Mar 15, 2022 188323 32442 61503 -29061 -57989 -18540 -2005 -16535 Bearish Mar 08, 2022 246312 50982 63508 -12526 34443 3303 15492 -12189 Bearish Mar 01, 2022 211869 47679 48016 -337 23426 5430 -42 5472 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 188443 42249 48058 -5809 -6859 -7902 144 -8046 Bearish         Total Change 29063 -19527 22780 -42307     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached - 37,244 contracts, down by 8,183 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth of long positions by 311 contracts and the growth of short positions by 8,494 contracts. This suggests bearish sentiment as the total net positions of large speculators are negative while there has been a further decline. Open interest rose by 7,389 contracts last week. This means that the modest rise in the pound that occurred last week was supported by the volume and is therefore strong. However, the pound's growth was not significant. In addition, a pin bar formed on the weekly chart which would suggest more of a further weakening in line with sentiment. Long-term resistance: 1.3270 – 1.3300. Support is near 1.3000.     The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 29, 2022 143007 33960 83566 -49606 15240 10213 8630 1583 Weak bearish Mar 22, 2022 127767 23747 74936 -51189 3246 -534 5799 -6333 Bearish Mar 15, 2022 124521 24281 69137 -44856 -72573 4760 -28579 33339 Weak bearish Mar 08, 2022 197094 19521 97716 -78195 7427 6801 6660 141 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 189667 12720 91056 -78336 -2912 1167 -4577 5744 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 192579 11553 95633 -84080 1 -139 -2753 2614 Weak bearish         Total change -49571 22268 -14820 37088     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 49,606 contracts last week, having grown by 1,583 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth of long positions by 10,213 contracts and the growth of short positions by 8,630 contracts. This data suggests weak bearish sentiment for the Australian dollar as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, but they increased last week. There was an increase in open interest of 15,240 contracts last week. This means that the sideways movement that occurred last week was supported by the volume and was therefore strong as new money flowed into the market. The Australian dollar moved near a strong resistance level last week. If it is validly broken then a further bullish movement may be seen.  Long-term resistance: 0.7510-0.7560                                                                                                              Long-term support: 0.7370-0.7440.  A next support is near 0.7160 – 0.7180.   The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 29, 2022 34881 15504 16371 -867 -375 -1652 1735 -3387 Bearish Mar 22, 2022 35256 17156 14636 2520 -3944 -4337 -3204 -1133 Weak bullish Mar 15, 2022 39200 21493 17840 3653 -14050 5718 -10314 16032 Bullish Mar 08, 2022 53250 15775 28154 -12379 2861 5290 3497 1793 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 50389 10485 24657 -14172 -6247 -6858 -4237 -2621 Bearish Feb 22, 2022 56636 17343 28894 -11551 -7469 -7580 -5362 -2218 Bearish Mar 29, 2022 34881 15504 16371 -867 -375 -1652 1735 -3387 Bearish         Total Change -29224 -9419 -17885 8466     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week amounted to - 867 contracts, having fallen by 3,387 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 1,652 contracts and an increase in short positions by 1,735 contracts. This data suggests that there was a bearish sentiment for the New Zealand dollar over the past week as the total net positions of large speculators got negative. Open interest fell by 375 contracts last week.  Therefore, the sideways move in the NZDUSD that occurred last week was not supported by a volume and therefore the move was weak. The NZDUSD strengthened strongly last week and got to the resistance level. Long-term resistance: 0.6980 – 0.7000 Long-term support: 0.6860-0.6880 and the next support is at 0.6730 – 0.6740.   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 5/4/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 5/4/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 11.04.2022 22:12
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 5/4/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 911 contracts last week. This change is the result of a decrease in long positions by 3,932 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 4,843 contracts. The growth in total net positions occurred last week in the euro, the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar. There were declines in the total net positions of large speculators in the British pound, the New Zealand dollar, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. Interest rate decisions will be made by the central banks of New Zealand and Canada (Wednesday) and the ECB on Thursday this week. The published monetary policy of these banks will be the decisive driver for the NZD, the CAD and the EUR this week. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Apr 05, 2022 31852 27370 -41758 -37513 -1569 -103829 6923 -12393 Mar 29, 2022 30941 21374 -40070 -49606 -867 -102131 1535 -11579 Mar 22, 2022 29635 23843 -37244 -51189 2520 -78482 -4940 -8424 Mar 15, 2022 28380 18794 -29061 -44856 3653 -62340 17740 -5229 Mar 08, 2022 34044 58844 -12526 -78195 -12379 -55856 7646 -9710 Mar 01, 2022 34774 64939 -337 -78336 -14172 -68732 14140 -15248   Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com   The Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Apr 05, 2022 663589 210914 183544 27370 1174 10871 4875 5996 Bullish Mar 29, 2022 662415 200043 178669 21374 3598 -7008 -4539 2469 Weak bullish Mar 22, 2022 658817 207051 183208 23843 -7193 5011 -38 5049 Bullish Mar 15, 2022 666010 202040 183246 18794 -72980 -40643 -593 -40050 Weak bullish Mar 08, 2022 738990 242683 183839 58844 19015 14298 20393 -6095 Weak bullish Mar 01, 2022 719975 228385 163446 64939 23293 14190 8557 5633 Bullish         Total change -33093 -3281 28655 -31936     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1 The total net positions of large speculators reached 27 370 contracts last week and they were up by 5 996 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 10,871 contracts and an increase in short positions by 4,875 contracts. These data indicates a bullish sentiment for the euro. Open interest has risen by 1,174 contracts in the last week. This shows that the downward movement that occurred in the euro last week was supported by a volume and it was therefore a strong price action. The euro keeps moving in a downtrend. Last week it again reached a strong support in the area around 1.0850. Long-term resistance: 1.0950 – 1.0980.  The next resistance is in the zone 1.1160 – 1.1180. Support: 1.080-1.0850   The British pound   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Apr 05, 2022 238266 35873 77631 -41758 13901 5249 6937 -1688 Bearish Mar 29, 2022 224365 30624 70694 -40070 28653 -2129 697 -2826 Bearish Mar 22, 2022 195712 32753 69997 -37244 7389 311 8494 -8183 Bearish Mar 15, 2022 188323 32442 61503 -29061 -57989 -18540 -2005 -16535 Bearish Mar 08, 2022 246312 50982 63508 -12526 34443 3303 15492 -12189 Bearish Mar 01, 2022 211869 47679 48016 -337 23426 5430 -42 5472 Weak bearish         Total change 49823 -6376 29573 -35949     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached 41,758 contracts and thez were down by 1,688 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth in long positions by 5,249 contracts and the growth in short positions by 6,937 contracts. This suggests bearish sentiment as the total net positions of large speculators are negative while there has been their further decline. Open interest rose by 13,901 contracts last week. This means that the downward movement in the pound that occurred last week was supported by a volume and it is therefore strong. Long-term resistance: 1.3050 – 1.3070. The next resistance is in the zone 1.3270 – 1.3300. Support is near 1.3000. The next support is near 1.2900   The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Apr 05, 2022 148898 34871 72384 -37513 5891 911 -11182 12093 Weak bearish Mar 29, 2022 143007 33960 83566 -49606 15240 10213 8630 1583 Weak bearish Mar 22, 2022 127767 23747 74936 -51189 3246 -534 5799 -6333 Bearish Mar 15, 2022 124521 24281 69137 -44856 -72573 4760 -28579 33339 Weak bearish Mar 08, 2022 197094 19521 97716 -78195 7427 6801 6660 141 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 189667 12720 91056 -78336 -2912 1167 -4577 5744 Weak bearish         Total change -43681 23318 -23249 46567     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached - 37,513 contracts, growing by 12,093 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth in long positions by 911 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 11,182 contracts. This data suggests weak bearish sentiment for the Australian dollar as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, but there was an increase in the previous week. There was an increase in open interest of 5,891 contracts last week. This means that the downward movement that occurred last week was supported by a volume and it was therefore a strong price action as new money flowed into the market. The Australian dollar formed a strong bearish pin bar last week. This could indicate further weakening of the AUD/USD pair. However, the pair is in a support area, so to speculate in the short direction it is necessary to wait for the pair to break this support and for a valid retest of the break. Long-term resistance: 0.7580-0.7660                                                                                                              Long-term support: 0.7370-0.7440.  A next support is near 0.7160 – 0.7180.   The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Apr 05, 2022 35788 15428 16997 -1569 907 -76 626 -702 Bearish Mar 29, 2022 34881 15504 16371 -867 -375 -1652 1735 -3387 Bearish Mar 22, 2022 35256 17156 14636 2520 -3944 -4337 -3204 -1133 Weak bullish Mar 15, 2022 39200 21493 17840 3653 -14050 5718 -10314 16032 Bullish Mar 08, 2022 53250 15775 28154 -12379 2861 5290 3497 1793 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 50389 10485 24657 -14172 -6247 -6858 -4237 -2621 Bearish         Total change -20848 -1915 -11897 9982     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached to - 1 569 contracts, falling by 702 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 76 contracts and an increase in short positions by 626 contracts. This data suggests that bearish sentiment has set in in the New Zealand dollar over the past week, as the total net positions of large speculators are negative and they continue to fall Open interest rose by 907 contracts last week.  It means that the downward movement in NZDUSD that occurred last week was supported by a volume and therefore this price action was strong. Long-term resistance: 0.6860 – 0.6880. The next resistance is near 0.6980 – 0.7030 Long-term support: 0.6730 – 0.6740.   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
EM Index Inclusions and Exclusions: India Thrives, Egypt Faces Challenges

(US Dollar) USD/JPY (Japanese Yen) Hits 20-Year-Low!? Japanese Currency Is Quite Weak. What Will Bank Of Japan Do?

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 13.04.2022 15:50
The USD/JPY reaching 126 yen this morning means that the Japanese currency appears to be at its weakest against the US in nearly 20 years. The reason? The Bank of Japan's commitment to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy may contrast with the actions of the world's other major central banks, which appear to be normalizing monetary policy. Yen falls, bank doesn't intend to react Shunichi Suzuki, Japan's finance minister, declined to comment Tuesday on specific rates in currency markets. He said the government is keeping a close eye on the yen's trading and that excessive volatility in the exchange rate could have a negative impact on the economy and financial stability. The Bank of Japan has repeatedly intervened to keep bond yields near zero. Recently, however, Shunichi Suzuki has cooled hopes for any government intervention in the currency markets, saying the central bank does not deal with exchange rates. Since the beginning of the year, the yen appears to be the weakest among the world's major currencies and may be losing more than 8 percent to the USD. Since the beginning of April alone, JPY depreciation against the USD may have reached 3.5 percent. Learn more on Conotoxia.com Inflation 8.5 percent - rates are going up In the United States, after the inflation reading, which rose to 8.5 percent in March, the US dollar appears relatively strong, and the exchange rate of the main currency pair remains in the region of 1.08. The market may expect the Fed to decide on two consecutive interest rate hikes of 50 basis points in response to the rise in prices. Such a move is priced today with over 80 percent probability, and the next decision will come as early as May 4. Related article: ECB To Shock Markets In The Following Week!? US Dollar Rate Under Pressure As Well! Oil: demand in China falls, demand in USA rises Increased volatility may arise on the oil market. The futures contract for WTI crude oil rose to around $100 per barrel today, falling from the session high at $102. Data from China's customs office showed that crude imports into the world's largest crude consumer fell for the second month in a row. That's likely because further restrictions due to coronavirus have reduced demand. Japan, the world's third-largest oil consumer and importer, saw its biggest monthly drop in machinery orders in February in nearly two years. Fears persist that supplies could become even tighter because of the war in eastern Europe. OPEC has already warned that it will not be able to replace potential supply losses from Russia. At the same time, there could be strong demand for fuel in the U.S., where gasoline and distillate stocks fell by more than 5 million barrels last week. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
COT Currency Speculators drop their Japanese Yen bets to 183-week low

COT Currency Speculators drop their Japanese Yen bets to 183-week low

Invest Macro Invest Macro 16.04.2022 22:07
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the further rise of bearish bets in the Japanese yen currency futures contracts. Yen speculators pushed their bearish bets higher for a fifth straight week this week and for the sixth time in the past seven weeks. Over the past five weeks, yen bets have fallen by a total of -55,971 contracts, going from a total of -55,856 net positions on March 8th to a total of -111,827 net positions this week. Speculator positions have now slid all the way to the lowest standing of the past one hundred and eight-three weeks, dating back to October 9th of 2019. This recent weakness in yen positions and the yen price has taken place while open interest has been increasing which shows an accelerating downtrend as prices have been falling as more traders have been entering the market on the bearish side. The speculator strength index is also showing that the Japanese yen positions are at a bearish extreme position with the strength index at a zero percent level (strength index is the current speculator standing compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme). The fundamental backdrop has been the major driver of yen weakness. The Bank of Japan has continued on with its stimulus program and has not indicated any plans to move interest rates off their near-zero level while other central banks around the world have put the breaks on their stimulus actions and have started hiking their interest rates to try to tame inflationary pressures. The yen this week hit the lowest level in twenty years against the US dollar as the USDJPY currency pair trades above the 126.00 level. The other major currencies have all hit multi-year highs versus the yen as well. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Euro (11,690 contracts), Brazil real (603 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,280 contracts), Canadian dollar (5,235 contracts), Bitcoin (411 contracts), Australian dollar (8,798 contracts) and the Mexican peso (14,050 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-2,215 contracts), Japanese yen (-7,998 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,549 contracts) and the British pound sterling (-11,296 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Currency where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Apr-12-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 54,836 78 29,637 77 -36,045 15 6,408 87 EUR 678,607 73 39,060 47 -60,750 59 21,690 10 GBP 246,152 68 -53,054 36 70,949 72 -17,895 19 JPY 245,403 86 -111,827 0 131,902 100 -20,075 13 CHF 41,231 16 -13,942 46 22,299 56 -8,357 39 CAD 155,390 34 12,158 59 -33,450 35 21,292 72 AUD 150,939 45 -28,715 58 17,876 32 10,839 79 NZD 37,585 20 -289 71 -429 30 718 60 MXN 175,905 38 14,960 34 -19,553 65 4,593 62 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 67,772 64 46,129 96 -48,954 4 2,825 98 Bitcoin 10,632 56 167 98 -439 0 272 19   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 29,637 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,215 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,852 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.6 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.8 2.2 15.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.7 68.0 3.6 – Net Position: 29,637 -36,045 6,408 – Gross Longs: 44,303 1,226 8,402 – Gross Shorts: 14,666 37,271 1,994 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.0 to 1 0.0 to 1 4.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.9 14.7 86.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.9 5.6 19.6   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 39,060 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,690 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,370 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.7 53.0 11.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.9 62.0 8.5 – Net Position: 39,060 -60,750 21,690 – Gross Longs: 221,645 359,853 79,165 – Gross Shorts: 182,585 420,603 57,475 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.0 58.6 10.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.9 9.7 -14.0   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -53,054 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -11,296 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,758 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.4 75.7 8.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 36.0 46.9 15.3 – Net Position: -53,054 70,949 -17,895 – Gross Longs: 35,514 186,343 19,803 – Gross Shorts: 88,568 115,394 37,698 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 35.8 71.6 18.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -38.0 33.6 -8.5   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -111,827 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,998 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -103,829 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.0 86.7 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 49.6 33.0 16.3 – Net Position: -111,827 131,902 -20,075 – Gross Longs: 9,925 212,850 20,022 – Gross Shorts: 121,752 80,948 40,097 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 12.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -26.5 25.5 -18.8   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -13,942 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,549 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,393 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.0 74.7 21.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.8 20.6 41.5 – Net Position: -13,942 22,299 -8,357 – Gross Longs: 1,642 30,798 8,742 – Gross Shorts: 15,584 8,499 17,099 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 3.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.6 55.9 38.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.3 1.6 -8.0   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 12,158 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,235 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,923 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.3 49.5 25.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.5 71.0 11.3 – Net Position: 12,158 -33,450 21,292 – Gross Longs: 37,724 76,922 38,796 – Gross Shorts: 25,566 110,372 17,504 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.8 35.4 72.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.0 -8.6 27.6   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -28,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,798 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,513 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.3 53.9 19.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.4 42.1 12.1 – Net Position: -28,715 17,876 10,839 – Gross Longs: 39,770 81,396 29,106 – Gross Shorts: 68,485 63,520 18,267 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.2 32.2 78.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 46.0 -52.2 49.4   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,280 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,569 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.4 45.9 10.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 44.1 47.0 8.1 – Net Position: -289 -429 718 – Gross Longs: 16,295 17,233 3,773 – Gross Shorts: 16,584 17,662 3,055 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 70.8 29.7 60.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 23.3 -25.5 30.2   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 14,960 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 14,050 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 910 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 46.4 48.8 4.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.9 59.9 1.7 – Net Position: 14,960 -19,553 4,593 – Gross Longs: 81,582 85,784 7,517 – Gross Shorts: 66,622 105,337 2,924 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.7 64.6 62.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -11.7 10.9 4.9   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 46,129 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 603 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,526 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.6 15.6 6.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.6 87.9 2.5 – Net Position: 46,129 -48,954 2,825 – Gross Longs: 52,624 10,591 4,496 – Gross Shorts: 6,495 59,545 1,671 – Long to Short Ratio: 8.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 95.7 3.5 97.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.2 3.3 10.9   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 411 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -244 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.2 3.6 10.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 75.6 7.7 7.4 – Net Position: 167 -439 272 – Gross Longs: 8,207 382 1,058 – Gross Shorts: 8,040 821 786 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 97.9 6.3 19.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.9 6.3 -3.8   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Greenback Skyrockets! Record-Breaking US Dollar (USD)!? Is It Possible For Dollar Index (DXY) To Reach 112 As In Early 2000s? Fed Decision Incoming!

Greenback Skyrockets! Record-Breaking US Dollar (USD)!? Is It Possible For Dollar Index (DXY) To Reach 112 As In Early 2000s? Fed Decision Incoming!

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 19.04.2022 10:34
The dollar index passed 101, which we last saw for just over a week at the height of the lockdowns. But history suggests that this rally has roughly passed the halfway point. DXY is unlikely to stop near 103-104 as it has done in the last six years Except for a brief period of stock market panic in March 2020, the last time the dollar was at this level against a basket of the six most popular currencies was in April 2017. The Dollar Index peaked in the 103-104 area in both cases and has not traded consistently higher for the past 20 years. Read next: (UKOIL) Brent Crude Oil Spikes to Highest Price For April, (NGAS) Natural Gas Hitting Pre-2008 Prices, Cotton Planting Has Begun The past two times, the dollar’s rise has been halted by the Fed, easing its policy or tone of commentary, as we have seen stock and commodity markets crash along with the USD rally. That is not the case this time, so the DXY is unlikely to stop near 103-104 as it has done in the last six years. For USDJPY, it could spike to 140, which has not been seen since 1998 We are now seeing a rise in the dollar, mainly on the Fed’s switch to monetary tightening mode. We saw that the last three such impulses of dollar growth, which started in 2014, 1998, and 1992 caused the DXY to appreciate by about 25%. For you: Forex Rates: British Pound (GBP) Strengthening? Weak (EUR) Euro? GBP, NZD And AUD Supported By Monetary Policy? Applying this pattern to the current case, we get that the dollar has exhausted just over half of its upside potential and could strengthen as much as 110-112 on the DXY in the next few months. For EURUSD, this scenario sets up a plunge towards parity, the lows of the last 20 years. For USDJPY, it could spike to 140, which has not been seen since 1998. And for GBPUSD, a return to 1.2000, the lows of the Brexit-fear era.
The US Has Again Benefited From Military Conflicts In Other Parts Of The World, The Capital From Europe And Other Regions Goes To The US

What A Plunge Of Japanese Yen (JPY)! US Dollar (USD) Is Really Strong! Will Bank Of Japan (BoJ) Raise The Interest Rate? USDJPY And More In Eyes Of Saxo Bank

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 19.04.2022 12:06
Forex 2022-04-19 10:30 Summary:  The Japanese yen has seen a relentless decline over the last few weeks, underpinned by a widening yield differential between the US and the Japanese government bonds. As verbal interventions from the Bank of Japan and Ministry of Finance fail to be heard, we are looking at a subtle policy shift with the aim to manage volatility, or a real physical intervention. The JPY continues to run away to the downside, with USDJPY surging above 128.00 for the first time since 2002. The next major chart point is the early 2002 high near at 135.00. AUDJPY has also surged to fresh record highs of 94.50+ as the AUD was slightly firmer following the hawkish tilt in RBA minutes. Read next: (UKOIL) Brent Crude Oil Spikes to Highest Price For April, (NGAS) Natural Gas Hitting Pre-2008 Prices, Cotton Planting Has Begun The big why? US 10-year treasury yields have notched a new cycle peak and will soon threaten the 3.00% level if they continue to rise, widening the policy divergence with the Bank of Japan (BOJ), that continues to stick with its yield-curve-control (YCC) policy that caps 10-year Japanese government bond yields (JGB) yields at 0.25%. Both the BOJ and the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF) have stepped up their verbal interventions against JPY volatility as recently as overnight, but these have hardly had any effect. The BOJ conducted unprecedented four-day purchase plan into the end of its financial year on March 31 after the JGB yields had hit 0.25%, a ceiling the central bank had made clear in March last year. This further highlighted their commitment to capping yields. While the BoJ may be concerned about the volatility and the pace of JPY decline, the Bank is unlikely to be worried about its direction. In fact, BOJ rhetoric repeatedly suggests that it sees JPY weakness as good news for the economy and exports as well as a factor helping to spur imported inflation pressures. This is especially important if we note that GDP is still well below pre-COVID levels and core inflation is negative. Is inflation a concern? The rise in JGB yields has little to do with expectations that Japanese inflation is moving sustainably higher. CPI is expected to increase above the BOJ’s 2% (from 0.9% currently) target, but the central bank expects the move to be temporary. Much of the gains in inflation are on the back of base effects and higher energy prices, and underlying price pressures remain muted. Stripping out energy prices and fresh food clearly shows that core inflation is still very benign at multiyear lows at -1% y/y. Will the YCC be tweaked? We are probably starting to see the limit of the yield curve control program, as sustained BOJ purchases could be a problem for a central bank that already owns around half of government issues. Would the BOJ go Australia’s way that clumsily abandoned its peg in November? That would need more domestic demand for JGBs which is unlikely to be achieved. Historically, BoJ has been open to adjusting targeting range of bond yields. It widened the range to +/-0.25% from +/-0.20% in March 2021, which was changed in July 2018 from +/-0.10% before that. The BoJ could tweak its YCC policy to target 10-year yields form +/-25bps to +/-30bps to give itself more flexibility and manage volatility. This move, if effected, will be communicated as a measure to manage the increased volatility in bond markets, to ensure that it is not taken as a sign of any shift in policy thinking. Article on Crypto: Hot Topic - NEAR Protocol! Terra (LUNA) has been seeing a consistent downward price trend, DAI Should Stay Close To $1 What to watch next? Our sense is that until a policy shift is spotted, or real intervention is mobilized, the market is content to continue driving the JPY lower. Ironically, in the past, the MoF has mobilised intervention in the yen in the direction of avoiding further JPY strength, not weakness. These interventions may not achieve more than temporary success if the underlying policy and market dynamics don’t shift (i.e., the BOJ sticking to its current policy while inflationary pressures and yields elsewhere continue higher). But the risk of tremendous two-way, intraday volatility should be appreciated. Japan’s Finance Minister Suzuki is heading for a bilateral meeting with the US and comments would be on watch. Next BOJ meeting is scheduled for April 27-28, but focus will still be tilted more towards the Fed’s May meeting where a 50bps rate hike is expected along with the start of quantitative tightening. The only other way could be to hope that the yen would find a floor, and wait for BoJ governor Kuroda’s tenure to end in April 2023. This may then be followed up with rate hikes.
Indonesia's Inflation Slips, Central Bank Maintains Rates Amidst Stability

Record-Breaking US Dollar To Japanese Yen (USD/JPY): Turbo-accelerated Dollar Index (DXY) Makes Not So Strony JPY Plunge Against The Greenback

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 19.04.2022 21:27
The dollar index reached 101 points on Tuesday for the first time since March 2020, which may be influenced by rising U.S. Treasury bond yields. Investors appear to be awaiting a series of half-point interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve as it tries to rein in rising inflation. James Bullard, the St. Louis Fed chairman known for his hawkish views, said Monday that U.S. inflation is far too high, reiterating his case for raising interest rates to 3.5 percent by the end of the year. Will the Fed accelerate interest rate hikes? Last month, the Fed raised its target interest rate by 25 basis points, and forecasts released at the time indicated that interest rates could rise to 1.9 percent by the end of the year. Bullard's preferred path would require rate hikes of half a percentage point at all six remaining Fed meetings this year. James Bullard's remarks also included a statement that interest rates could rise by 75 basis points to accelerate the entire monetary tightening cycle. Article on Crypto: Binance Academy: Immutable X Token (IMX) - What Is It? IMX Explained. How To Buy IMX?| FXMAG.COM From a monetary policy perspective, there may be a strong divergence between the actions of the Fed and the rest of the central banks, including the Bank of Japan. This in turn may translate into currency rates, including the USD/JPY pair, which is trading at 128 yen per dollar. Weakness of the yen beneficial for exporters Since the beginning of the year, the yen may have lost 10 percent against the U.S. dollar, and more than 5 percent in April alone. In this situation, as calculated by Bloomberg, the yen seems to have lost the most against the dollar since 1971. A weak yen theoretically can help the Japanese economy raise the inflation rate due to more expensive imports of products from abroad. It can support Japanese manufacturers who export their goods, potentially making them more competitive. Thus, for Japan, the current situation may be quite comfortable. Only inflation getting out of control would be an undesirable phenomenon. SNB limits the appreciation of the Franc The USD/CHF exchange rate recorded 12-month highs as the pair may be under pressure from a strong dollar despite potential interventions by the Swiss Bank. Current deposits at the SNB increased by CHF 2.2 billion in the week ending April 8 from the previous week, following an increase of CHF 5.7 billion in the previous week. Article on Crypto: Altcoins Showing Promising Growth - Take a Look at Solana (SOL), POLKADOT (DOT) and SHIBA INU (SHIB-USD)| FXMAG.COM The rise in deposits is widely seen as an indicator of the central bank's foreign exchange interventions dictating the amount of credit added to the sight accounts of commercial banks that hold freshly created francs in exchange for foreign currency. At its last meeting, the SNB stressed that it would limit the appreciation of the franc, which is near a 7-year high against the euro. This level was reached after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
The Swing Overview - Week 16 2022

The Swing Overview - Week 16 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 22.04.2022 15:00
The Swing Overview - Week 16 Jerome Powell confirmed that the Fed will be aggressive in fighting the inflation and confirmed tighter interest rate hikes starting in May. Equity indices fell strongly after this news. Inflation in the euro area reached a record high of 7.4% in March. Despite this news, the euro continued to weaken. The sell-off also continued in the Japanese yen, which is the weakest against the US dollar in last 20 years.  The USD index strengthens along with US bond yields Fed chief Jerome Powell said on Thursday that the Fed could raise interest rates by 0.50% in May. The Fed could continue its aggressive pace of rate hikes in the coming months of this year. US 10-year bond yields have responded to this news by strengthening further and have already reached 2.94%. The US dollar has also benefited from this development and has already surpassed the value 100 and continues to move in an uptrend. Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields and USD index on the daily chart Earnings season is underway in equities Rising interest rates continue to weigh on equity indices, which gave back gains from the first half of the last week and weakened significantly on Thursday following the Fed’s information on the aggressive pace of interest rate hikes.   In addition, the earnings season, which is in full swing, is weighing on index movements. For example, Netflix and Tesla reported results last week.   While Netflix unpleasantly surprised by reducing the number of subscribers by 200,000 in 1Q 2022 and the company's shares fell by 35% in the wake of the news, Tesla, on the other hand, exceeded analysts' expectations and the stock gained more than 10% after the results were announced. Tesla has thus shown that it has been able to cope with the supply chain problems and higher subcontracting prices that are plaguing the entire automotive sector much better than its competitors.   The decline in Netflix subscribers can be explained by people starting to save more in an environment of rising prices. Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart The SP 500 index continues to undergo a downward correction, which is shown on the H4 chart. The price has reached the resistance level at 4,514-4,520. The price continues to move below the SMA 100 moving average (blue line) on the daily chart which indicates bearish sentiment.  The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is at 4,514 - 4,520. The next resistance is around 4,583 - 4,600. The support is at 4,360 - 4,365.   The German DAX index The DAX is also undergoing a correction and the last candlestick on the daily chart is a bearish pin bar which suggests that the index could fall further. Figure 3: The German DAX index on H4 and daily chart This index is also below the SMA 100 on the daily chart, confirming the bearish sentiment. The price has reached a support according to the H4 chart, which is at 14,340 - 14,370. However, this is very likely to be overcome quickly. The next support is 13 910 - 14 000. The nearest resistance is 14 592 - 14 632.   The DAX is affected by the French presidential election that is going to happen on Sunday April 24, 2022. According to the latest polls, Macron is leading over Le Pen and if the election turns out like this, it should not have a significant impact on the markets. However, if Marine Le Pen wins in a surprise victory, it can be very negative news for the French economy and would weigh on the DAX index as well.   The euro remains in a downtrend The Fed's hawkish policy and the ECB's dovish rhetoric at its meeting on Thursday April 14, 2022, which showed that the ECB is not planning to raise rates in the short term, put further pressure on the European currency. The French presidential election and, of course, the ongoing war in Ukraine are also causing uncertainty.  Figure 4: The EURUSD on the H4 and daily charts. The inflation data was reported last week, which came in at 7.4% on year-on-year basis. The previous month inflation was 5.9%. This rise in inflation caused the euro to strengthen briefly to the resistance level at 1.0930 - 1.0950. However, there was then a rapid decline from this level following the Fed's reports of a quick tightening in the economy. A support is at 1.0760 - 1.0780.   The sell-off in the Japanese yen is not over The Japanese yen is also under pressure. The US dollar has already reached 20-year highs against the Japanese yen (USD/JPY) and it looks like the yen's weakening against the US dollar could continue. This is because the Bank of Japan has the most accommodative monetary policy of any major central bank and continues to support the economy while the Fed will aggressively tighten the economy. Thus, this fundamental suggests that a reversal in the USD/JPY pair should not happen anytime soon. Figure 5: The USDJPY on the monthly chart In terms of technical analysis, the USD/JPY price broke through the strong resistance band around the price of 126.00 seen on the monthly chart. The currency pair thus has room to grow further up to the resistance, which is in the area near 135 yens per dollar.  
Currency Speculators raise their bullish bets for Canadian Dollar to 40-week high

Currency Speculators raise their bullish bets for Canadian Dollar to 40-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 23.04.2022 20:49
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data is the rising of bullish bets in the Canadian ‘Loonie’ dollar currency futures contracts. CAD speculators raised their bullish bets for a fourth straight week this week and for the fifth time in the past six weeks. Over the past four-week time-frame, CAD bets have improved by a total of +26,166 contracts, going from -4,940 net positions on March 22nd to +21,226 net positions this week. These gains have brought this week’s speculator level to the most bullish position since July 13th of 2021, a span of forty weeks. This recent improvement in Loonie sentiment has been helped out by the hike in interest rates by the Bank of Canada (BOC). The BOC recently pushed its key interest rate higher by 50 basis points on April 13th and has in the past few days hinted that more interest rate rises were to come. The recent inflation numbers out of Canada were above expectations (6.7 percent) and according to Bloomberg, market participants have pushed their odds to 100 percent for another 50 basis point hike in June. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the US Dollar Index (2,943 contracts), Japanese yen (4,640 contracts), Swiss franc (2,492 contracts), New Zealand dollar (654 contracts), Canadian dollar (9,068 contracts)and the Mexican peso (6,704 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Euro (-7,759 contracts), Brazil real (-1,557 contracts), Australian dollar (-122 contracts), Bitcoin (-361 contracts) and the British pound sterling (-5,860 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Apr-19-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 54,524 77 32,580 82 -35,893 15 3,313 53 EUR 675,939 72 31,301 45 -49,726 62 18,425 5 GBP 249,529 70 -58,914 32 72,889 73 -13,975 27 JPY 251,291 90 -107,187 3 129,842 99 -22,655 7 CHF 44,269 20 -11,450 50 23,051 57 -11,601 29 CAD 153,302 32 21,226 68 -39,338 31 18,112 66 AUD 147,309 43 -28,837 58 20,800 34 8,037 72 NZD 41,098 26 365 72 503 31 -868 42 MXN 165,403 33 21,664 37 -26,214 62 4,550 62 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 70,553 68 44,572 94 -47,063 5 2,491 94 Bitcoin 11,276 61 -194 90 -175 0 369 21   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 32,580 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,637 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 85.6 3.3 9.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.9 69.1 3.5 – Net Position: 32,580 -35,893 3,313 – Gross Longs: 46,685 1,778 5,198 – Gross Shorts: 14,105 37,671 1,885 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.3 to 1 0.0 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 82.0 15.0 52.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.5 3.3 -5.8   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 31,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,759 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,060 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.7 53.7 11.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.1 61.0 8.7 – Net Position: 31,301 -49,726 18,425 – Gross Longs: 221,003 362,930 76,939 – Gross Shorts: 189,702 412,656 58,514 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.6 61.9 4.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.5 9.7 -10.9   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -58,914 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,860 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,054 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.8 74.6 8.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.4 45.4 14.4 – Net Position: -58,914 72,889 -13,975 – Gross Longs: 36,811 186,134 21,987 – Gross Shorts: 95,725 113,245 35,962 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.6 72.8 26.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -33.4 28.1 -2.2   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -107,187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,640 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -111,827 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.1 86.0 8.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 47.7 34.3 17.3 – Net Position: -107,187 129,842 -22,655 – Gross Longs: 12,723 216,101 20,761 – Gross Shorts: 119,910 86,259 43,416 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.9 99.0 7.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -31.6 25.9 -3.8   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -11,450 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,492 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,942 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 50.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.6 71.7 21.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.4 19.6 47.9 – Net Position: -11,450 23,051 -11,601 – Gross Longs: 2,900 31,735 9,599 – Gross Shorts: 14,350 8,684 21,200 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 3.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.0 56.8 29.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.0 1.3 1.8   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 21,226 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,068 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,158 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.7 45.0 24.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.9 70.7 12.8 – Net Position: 21,226 -39,338 18,112 – Gross Longs: 44,063 68,989 37,784 – Gross Shorts: 22,837 108,327 19,672 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.7 31.1 65.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.4 -17.2 20.4   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -28,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,715 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.6 53.8 19.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.2 39.6 13.7 – Net Position: -28,837 20,800 8,037 – Gross Longs: 39,201 79,208 28,257 – Gross Shorts: 68,038 58,408 20,220 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.1 34.4 72.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 45.8 -42.8 19.6   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 365 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 654 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -289 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 46.4 45.9 6.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.5 44.6 8.9 – Net Position: 365 503 -868 – Gross Longs: 19,081 18,853 2,797 – Gross Shorts: 18,716 18,350 3,665 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 71.9 31.2 41.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.4 -20.2 4.0   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 21,664 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,704 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,960 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 44.6 50.0 4.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.5 65.8 1.9 – Net Position: 21,664 -26,214 4,550 – Gross Longs: 73,710 82,643 7,701 – Gross Shorts: 52,046 108,857 3,151 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 36.6 61.9 62.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.4 12.1 10.1   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 44,572 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,129 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 76.2 17.6 6.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.1 84.3 2.5 – Net Position: 44,572 -47,063 2,491 – Gross Longs: 53,790 12,399 4,272 – Gross Shorts: 9,218 59,462 1,781 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.8 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.2 5.4 94.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.8 5.4 5.0   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -194 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -361 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 167 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 73.3 3.6 10.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 75.0 5.2 7.0 – Net Position: -194 -175 369 – Gross Longs: 8,263 408 1,155 – Gross Shorts: 8,457 583 786 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.2 27.4 21.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.8 19.8 4.8   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Tuesday's EUR/USD Analysis: Chaotic Movements on 30M Chart

Will US Dollar (USD) Beat British Pound (GBP), Japanese Yen (JPY) And All Other Currencies? Bank Of Japan To Tackle The Weaking Of JPY?

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 27.04.2022 22:09
April 27, 2022  $USD, Australia, BOJ, Brazil, Currency Movement, Mexico, Russia Overview: Russia's decision to cut gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria and the sharp sell-off in US equities yesterday casts a pall over the markets today.  But not the dollar. The euro punched through $1.06 for the first time in five years and the greenback turned higher against the yen after falling to a seven-day low.  The major bourses in the Asia Pacific region fell by more than 1% except China and Hong Kong.  The Hang Seng eked out a minor gain, but China's CSI 300 rose nearly 3%.  Europe's Stoxx 600 gapped lower but has recovered with the help of materials, consumer discretionary, and energy sectors.  US futures are firm.  Treasury yields have recovered part of yesterday’s decline, putting the 10-year near 2.77% and the 2-year close to 2.58%.  European yields are mostly firmer and the core-periphery spreads are widening.  In the foreign exchange market, the greenback is mixed.  The Antipodeans and Scandis are firm, especially the Australian dollar, after the higher-than-expected Q1 CPI.  The yen, euro, and Swiss franc are heavy.  Emerging market currencies are mostly lower.  Of note, the Philippine peso and the Mexican peso are among the most resilient today.  Hungary, the only EU country that has agreed to pay Russia in roubles, is among the weakest (~0.9%).  That dubious honor goes to the South Korean won today, off 1.1%, the largest loss since last June and the fifth consecutive decline. Gold was sold to fresh two-month lows near $1887 before steadying.  June WTI is firm but in a narrow range (~$101.50-$103) near yesterday's highs.  US natgas prices are almost 0.75% higher after gaining nearly 5% over the past two sessions.  Europe's benchmark rose about 8.2% yesterday on top of yesterday's nearly 6% gain.  It is back to early April levels.  Iron ore rose for a second consecutive session, while copper is trying to end a three-day fall.  July wheat is steady after rising 2% yesterday.  Asia Pacific Australia's Q1 CPI rose 2.1%, faster than the 1.7% anticipated by the median in Bloomberg's survey and well above the 1.3% increase in Q4 21.  The year-over-year pace accelerated to 5.1% from 3.5%.  The underlying measures also rose.  The central bank meets next week, and the market sees the inflation figures as boosting the chances of a rate hike, which previously was expected after the May 21 election.  Yesterday the market had about six basis points of tightening discounted for the May 3 meeting.  Now there are 18 bp increase priced into the cash rate futures.   The Bank of Japan's two-day meeting began today.  Officials have clearly signaled no intention to change course.  Its defense of the 0.25% cap on the 10-year yield continued to today but the softer global yields yesterday took some pressure off the JGB market and there were sellers of 10-year bonds to the BOJ under its fixed-rate operation.  The BOJ is well aware that energy and food prices are lifting measured inflation and the reduction in wireless charges drop out of the 12-month comparison.  It pushes back and says that those developments do not make the increase in CPI sustainable.  Note too that the new economic package is estimated to shave 0.5% off headline CPI in the May-September period.   Many observers still seem to put the cart before the horse.  They are concerned that the weaker yen reduces Japanese demand for Treasuries.  The recent price action lends support for the hypothesis that the causation arrow is running the other way.  The increase in US yields weakens the yen.  The US 10-year yield peaked on April 20.  So did the dollar against the yen.  They both recorded eight-day lows earlier today and have recovered.  Moreover, the indirect bids show that the recent US Treasury auctions have been strong, including yesterday's two-year note sale.  That is where foreign participation is often picked up.   The dollar found a bid after slipping a little below JPY127. A $540 mln option at JPY126.75 rolls off today.  The greenback has already resurfaced above JPY128.  A move above JPY128.25 would lift the tone, but it needs to get above JPY128.50 to sign another attempt on the JPY129.50-JPY130 area. The Australian dollar recovered from around $0.7120 to almost $0.7200, but the upside momentum faltered and it fell back to the $0.7140 area in late Asia Pacific turnover.  That said, the intraday momentum indicators suggest the potential to retest the highs in North America.  The Chinese yuan is trading in its narrowest range for a little more than a week.  The dollar is consolidating its recent gains and traded roughly between CNY6.5480 and CNY6.5615.  The cut in reserve requirements for foreign currency deposits appears to have succeeded not in pushing the yuan higher but in steadying the exchange rate.  The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate slightly higher than expected in the Bloomberg survey (CNY6.5598 vs. CNY6.5596). Europe In a bizarre turn of events, Russia is insisting on being paid roubles for its gas while Europe is insisting to adhering to contracts to pay in hard currency, euros.  Russia is making good on its threats and announced that its cutting off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria.  Poland's gas supplies are around three-quarters capacity so the cut of new supply will not pinch immediately.  Bulgaria has indicated it has taken steps to secure alternative supplies.  Russia's actions do raise the question of who is next and that will likely be seen next month.  That said, Europe's reluctance or inability to move quicker on gas reveals their vulnerability, which Russia is exploiting.  It is quitting Europe before being fired, in a way.  Meanwhile, the tensions are rising in Moldova's breakaway region.  Some argue that Russia ultimately will likely link up the parts of Ukraine that it appears to be trying to take with the Moldova region, which would pen-in Ukraine.   Musk's leveraged buyout of Twitter is spurring a debate about freedom of speech in the US.  The constitutional right protects US citizens from abridgement of that right by Congress not by the private sector.  Clearly newspapers do not have to print all the op-ed submissions it receives and its not denying the rejected authors their freedom of speech.  In Europe, the reaction is different.  Musk is reminded that Twitter, regardless of its ownership structure, must adhere to the Digital Services Act, approved last week.  It forces the platforms to moderate illegal and harmful content that their users post.   The 1.4 bln euro option at $1.06 that expires today appears to have been neutralized.  The euro fell to about $1.0585 in late Asia/early Europe.  Initial resistance is seen near $1.0630 and then $1.0660. On the downside, the 2015-2017 lows were in the $1.0340-$1.0530 area, but there is increasing talk of a move to parity which has not been seen since 2002.  Sterling's losses have also been extended.  It fell to about $1.2535 before recovering to around $1.2590 in the European morning.  The $1.25 area represents the (61.8%) retracement of sterling's rally off the March 2020 low near $1.14.  The next chart point below there is the June 2020 lows around $1.2250.  Over the last five sessions, sterling has shed more than a nickel.  The lower Bollinger Band is set two standard deviations below its 20-day moving average and sterling's losses are nearly three standard deviations below the 20-day average.   America The US reports mortgage applications, which have fallen every week since the end of January but one. March pending home sales are expected to have fallen for the fifth consecutive month. The March trade deficit, which remains near a record imbalance, and March (wholesale and retail) inventories will help economists put their final touches on Q1 GDP forecasts ahead of tomorrow's report.  Due to the revisions in retail sales reported earlier this week, the Atlanta Fed's GDP tracker fell to 0.4%. It will update it again after today's reports.   As noted, there was a strong reception at yesterday's US sale of $48 bln two-year notes.   Indirect bidders took down 2/3 and direct bidders took another 21.4%.  This left the dealers with slightly more than 12%, the least in almost two decades.  On tap today are a $30 bln two-year floater auction and $49 bln 5-year note sale.  Still, the angst in some corners of the market about the implications of a strong dollar on foreign demand is unlikely to dissipate.   Bank of Canada Governor Macklem laid out the logic of raising rates even though it will have little impact on the prices of internationally traded goods that are understood to be the main drivers of Canadian inflation. He argued that keeping inflation expectations anchored will help prices ease when the higher energy and disrupted supply chains ease.   Mexico reports its March trade figures.  The balance may have swung into a small deficit after a $1.29 bln surplus in February.  Tomorrow it reports unemployment figures ahead of Friday's preliminary Q1 GDP.  After a flat Q4 21, it is expected to have grown around 1% in Q2 quarter-over-quarter.  Brazil reports April's IPCA inflation measure today.  It is expected to have accelerated to 12.15% from 10.79% in March. This will further challenge the signals by the central bank that next month could be the peak in what has been an aggressive tightening cycle.     The risk-off mood, which unlike when Russia first invaded Ukraine, is now seen as negative for commodities and commodity currencies.  The Canadian dollar has suffered in this phase despite constructive macro considerations.  The US dollar bottomed last week near CAD1.2460 and today has approached CAD1.2850.  The year's high was set in early March slightly north of CAD1.29.  The greenback has closed above its upper Bollinger Band for the last three sessions and remains above it (~CAD1.2810) now.  The greenback remains within the range set on Monday against the Mexican peso (~MXN20.16-MXN20.4850).  A convincing break of MXN20.50 could spur a quick move toward MXN20.60-MXN20.65.  Note the upper Bollinger Band is found today slightly above MXN20.40. The Brazilian real is a market favorite this year, with high yields, monetary policy near a peak, and commodity exposure. However, alongside Latam in general and the setback for metals, market participants have raced to reduce exposure in both the options and forward markets.  The dollar has jumped from around BRL4.60 a week ago to nearly BRL5.00 yesterday.  A move above there today could target the BRL5.20 area.       Disclaimer
Forex: USD/JPY Is Expected To Reach 145 In The End Of The Year. Why Is That?

(USD/JPY) Oanda: "Japanese yen stabilizes around 130"

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 29.04.2022 11:49
Another week has meant more losses for the Japanese yen, as USD/JPY punched above the symbolic 130 line for the first time in 20 years. How badly is the yen doing? The currency last posted a winning week in February, and USD/JPY has soared 6.86% in the month of April. Not a good report card. The yen’s downswing has been sharper than expected, as USD/JPY has broken through resistance at 130 much more quickly than expected. The rapid movement in the exchange rate has drawn the usual jawboning from the BoJ and Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MOF), but aside from strong rhetoric, it’s unlikely that we’ll see any intervention with the aim of propping up the battered yen. On Thursday, while the MoF said that the yen’s descent was “extremely worrying”, BoJ Governor Kuroda reiterated that a weak yen was good for Japan’s economy. BoJ focused on yield curve control The BoJ doesn’t want to see the yen continue to plummet, but its focus is on stimulating the economy, not on the exchange rate. We’ve seen the BoJ show its determination to protect its yield curve control, as the Bank continues to offer to make unlimited purchases of 10-year JGPs in order to cap yields at 0.25%. The BoJ will continue its ultra-accommodative policy, even though this will put it out of sync with the Federal Reserve and other major central banks, which are tightening policy in order to combat soaring inflation. If the price for this policy is a falling yen, so be it, in the minds of BoJ policymakers. If there is a “line in the sand” when it comes to the yen’s value, any intervention is likely to come from the MoF rather than the BoJ. After decades of deflation, Japan is finally experiencing some inflation, but at much lower levels than in the US and elsewhere. Until inflationary pressures increase, the BoJ will have a free hand to pursue its ultra-loose policy, and that could spell more trouble for the yen. USD/JPY Technical USD/JPY has broken below support at 129.89. Next, there is support at 1.2807 There is resistance at 1.3122 and 1.3304 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
The Swing Overview – Week 17 2022

The Swing Overview – Week 17 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 03.05.2022 11:04
The Swing Overview – Week 17 Major stock indices continued in their correction and tested strong support levels. In contrast, the US dollar strengthened strongly and is at its highest level since January 2017. The strengthening of the dollar had a negative impact on the value of the euro and commodities such as gold, which fell below the $1,900 per ounce. The Bank of Japan kept interest rates low and the yen broke the magic level 130 per dollar. The USD index strengthened again but the US GDP declined The US consumer confidence in the month of April came in at 107.3, a slight decline from the previous month when consumer confidence was 107.6.   The US GDP data was surprising. The US economy decreased by 1.4% in 1Q 2022 (in the previous quarter the economy grew by 6.4%). This sharp decline surprised even analysts who expected the economy to grow by 1.1%. This result is influenced by the Omicron, which caused the economy to shut down for a longer period than expected earlier this year.    The Fed meeting scheduled for the next week on May 4 will be hot. In fact, even the most dovish Fed officials are already leaning towards a 0.5% rate hike. At the end of the year, we can expect a rate around 2.5%.   The US 10-year bond yields continue to strengthen on the back of these expectations. The US dollar is also strengthening and is already at its highest level since January 2017, surpassing 103 level.  Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields and the USD index on the daily chart   Earnings season is underway in equities Earnings season is in full swing. Amazon's results were disappointing. While revenue was up 7% reaching $116.4 billion in the first quarter (revenue was $108.5 billion in the same period last year), the company posted an total loss of $8.1 billion, which translated to a loss of $7.56 per share. This loss, however, is not due to operating activities, but it is the result of the revaluation of the equity investment in Rivian Automotive.   Facebook, on the other hand, surprised in a positive way posting unexpectedly strong user growth, a sign that its Instagram app is capable of competing with Tik Tok. However, the revenue growth of 6.6% was the lowest in the company's history.    Apple was also a positive surprise, reporting earnings per share of $1.52 (analysts' forecast was $1.43) and revenue growth of $97.3 billion, up 8.6% from the same period last year. However, the company warned that the closed operations in Russia, the lockdown in China due to the coronavirus and supply disruptions will negatively impact earnings in the next quarter.   Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart In terms of technical analysis, the US SP 500 index is in a downtrend and has reached a major support level on the daily chart last week, which is at 4,150. It has bounced upwards from this support to the resistance according to the 4 H chart which is 4,308 - 4,313. The next resistance according to the H4 chart is 4,360 - 4,365.  The strong resistance is at 4,500.   German DAX index German businessmen are optimistic about the development of the German economy in the next 6 months, as indicated by the Ifo Business Climate Index, which reached 91.8 for April (the expectation was 89.1). However, this did not have a significant effect on the movement of the index and it continued in its downward correction. Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The index is below the SMA 100 on both the daily chart and the H4 chart, confirming the bearish sentiment. The nearest support according to the H4 is 13,600 - 13,650. The resistance is 14,180 - 14,200. The next resistance is 14,592 - 14,632.   The euro has fallen below 1.05 The euro lost significantly last week. While the French election brought relief to the markets as Emmanuel Macron defended the presidency, geopolitical tensions in Ukraine continue to weigh heavily on the European currency. The strong dollar is also having an impact on the EUR/USD pair, pushing the pair down. The price has fallen below 1.05, the lowest level since January 2017.    Figure 4: EURUSD on H4 and daily chart The euro broke through the important support at 1.0650 - 1.071, which has now become the new resistance. The new support was formed in January 2017 and is around the level 1.0350 - 1.040.   Japan's central bank continues to support the fragile economy The Bank of Japan on Thursday reinforced its commitment to keep interest rates at very low levels by pledging to buy unlimited amounts of 10-year government bonds daily, sparking a fresh sell-off in the yen and reviving government bonds. With this commitment, the BOJ is trying to support a fragile economy, even as a surge in commodity prices is pushing the inflation up.   The decision puts Japan in the opposite position to other major economies, which are moving towards tighter monetary policy to combat soaring prices. Figure 5: The USD/JPY on the monthly and daily chart In fresh quarterly forecasts, the central bank has projected core consumer inflation to reach 1.9% in the current fiscal year and then ease to 1.1% in fiscal years 2023 and 2024, an indication that it views the current cost-push price increases as transitory.   In the wake of this decision, the Japanese yen has continued to weaken and has already surpassed the magical level 130 per dollar.   Strong dollar beats also gold Anticipation of aggressive Fed action against inflation, which is supporting the US dollar, is having a negative impact on gold. The rising US government bond yields are also a problem for the yellow metal. This has put gold under pressure, which peaked on Thursday when the price reached USD 1,872 per ounce of gold. But then the gold started to strengthen. Indeed, the decline in the US GDP may have been something of a warning to the Fed and prevent them from tightening the economy too quickly, which helped gold, in the short term, bounce off a strong support. Figure 6: The gold on H4 and daily chart Strong support for the gold is at $1,869 - $1,878 per ounce. There is a confluence of horizontal resistance and the SMA 100 moving average on the daily chart. The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is 1 907 - 1 910 USD per ounce. The strong resistance according to the daily chart is then 1 977 - 2 000 USD per ounce of gold. Moving averages on the H4 chart can also be used as a resistance. The orange line is the EMA 50 and the blue line is the SMA 100.  
Currency Speculators drop Euro bets into bearish territory on interest rates & low growth

Currency Speculators drop Euro bets into bearish territory on interest rates & low growth

Invest Macro Invest Macro 07.05.2022 14:13
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 3rd 2022 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the continued drop in speculator bets for European common currency futures contracts. Euro speculators reduced their bets for the third straight week this week and have now trimmed the net position by a total of -45,438 contracts over this three-week period. This decreasing sentiment among speculators accelerated this week with a large drop of -28,579 contracts and knocked the net contract level back into a bearish position for the first time since the beginning of October 2021. The fundamental backdrop for the euro is one of weak growth and low interest rates compared to many of the other major currency countries. The Eurozone GDP for the first quarter of 2022 amounted to just 0.2 percent growth following a fourth quarter of 2021 growth reading of 0.3 percent. The war in Ukraine combined with surging inflation and weakening consumer demand has some banks believing a GDP contraction could be on the horizon while others see parity in the euro versus the US dollar as inevitable. Eurozone interest rates are forecasted to rise this year but they have been behind their major currency counterparts. The US, Canada, UK, Australia and New Zealand have all raised their benchmark interest rates over the past quarter and look likely to see more over the year, possibly widening the interest rate differential even more if the European Central Bank does not act. This week was a very rare week when all the currencies we cover had lower speculator bets including the Euro (-28,579 contracts), Canadian dollar (-11,852 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-6,676 contracts), Mexican peso (-5,503 contracts), Japanese yen (-5,259 contracts), Brazil real (-5,096 contracts), British pound sterling (-4,192 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,038 contracts), US Dollar Index (-808 contracts), Australian dollar (-865 contracts) and Bitcoin (-24 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend May-03-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 54,092 76 33,071 83 -35,684 15 2,613 45 EUR 694,926 80 -6,378 33 -24,586 69 30,964 26 GBP 268,496 82 -73,813 21 89,026 82 -15,213 24 JPY 254,813 92 -100,794 7 120,264 94 -19,470 14 CHF 49,385 31 -13,907 46 30,542 68 -16,635 7 CAD 152,779 32 9,029 56 -12,959 51 3,930 38 AUD 152,257 46 -28,516 58 34,225 44 -5,709 39 NZD 50,844 45 -6,610 60 9,879 46 -3,269 14 MXN 151,933 27 14,623 34 -18,552 65 3,929 60 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 61,549 56 41,788 91 -43,371 9 1,583 83 Bitcoin 10,051 52 388 100 -429 0 41 14   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 33,071 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -808 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,879 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 85.5 2.7 9.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.4 68.6 5.0 – Net Position: 33,071 -35,684 2,613 – Gross Longs: 46,264 1,439 5,296 – Gross Shorts: 13,193 37,123 2,683 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.5 to 1 0.0 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 82.8 15.3 45.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.9 -3.6 -13.9   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -6,378 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -28,579 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,201 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.0 55.1 12.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.9 58.7 8.2 – Net Position: -6,378 -24,586 30,964 – Gross Longs: 208,449 383,222 88,267 – Gross Shorts: 214,827 407,808 57,303 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.0 69.0 25.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.3 6.2 13.9   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -73,813 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,192 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,621 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.5 77.7 7.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.0 44.6 13.3 – Net Position: -73,813 89,026 -15,213 – Gross Longs: 33,536 208,754 20,590 – Gross Shorts: 107,349 119,728 35,803 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 20.8 82.3 24.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -26.3 22.8 -4.3   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -100,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,259 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -95,535 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.3 84.6 7.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.8 37.4 14.7 – Net Position: -100,794 120,264 -19,470 – Gross Longs: 18,585 215,563 18,007 – Gross Shorts: 119,379 95,299 37,477 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 6.8 94.3 13.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.7 7.5 13.9   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -13,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,038 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,869 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.8 75.8 15.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.0 13.9 48.7 – Net Position: -13,907 30,542 -16,635 – Gross Longs: 4,357 37,429 7,397 – Gross Shorts: 18,264 6,887 24,032 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 5.4 to 1 0.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.7 68.3 7.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.6 11.9 -14.5   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 9,029 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -11,852 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,881 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.2 47.5 21.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.3 56.0 18.4 – Net Position: 9,029 -12,959 3,930 – Gross Longs: 44,670 72,629 32,093 – Gross Shorts: 35,641 85,588 28,163 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.7 51.2 37.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.8 -4.0 -17.1   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -28,516 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -865 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,651 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.9 52.6 14.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 49.6 30.2 17.8 – Net Position: -28,516 34,225 -5,709 – Gross Longs: 46,995 80,147 21,330 – Gross Shorts: 75,511 45,922 27,039 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.4 44.4 38.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.0 -10.6 -20.8   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -6,610 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,676 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.3 60.6 4.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 47.3 41.1 11.2 – Net Position: -6,610 9,879 -3,269 – Gross Longs: 17,427 30,789 2,423 – Gross Shorts: 24,037 20,910 5,692 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.2 45.6 14.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.3 18.4 -32.3   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 14,623 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,503 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,126 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.0 52.3 4.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.4 64.5 1.9 – Net Position: 14,623 -18,552 3,929 – Gross Longs: 63,860 79,394 6,771 – Gross Shorts: 49,237 97,946 2,842 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.6 65.1 59.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.9 -13.5 -0.9   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 41,788 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,096 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,884 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 81.2 13.5 5.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.3 83.9 2.8 – Net Position: 41,788 -43,371 1,583 – Gross Longs: 49,991 8,280 3,278 – Gross Shorts: 8,203 51,651 1,695 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.4 9.0 83.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.2 1.1 -15.4     Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -24 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 412 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.8 3.0 8.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 76.9 7.2 8.2 – Net Position: 388 -429 41 – Gross Longs: 8,121 298 867 – Gross Shorts: 7,733 727 826 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 99.5 7.1 13.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.0 4.2 -10.0   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Pound rises despite Boris turmoil

Is JPY Idle? British Pound To US Dollar (GBPUSD) And EUR/USD Have Decreased. "Risk-aversion lifts (USD) US dollar in Asia" | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 09.05.2022 12:54
China concerns boost the US dollar The US dollar booked some modest gains post-Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday, but the dollar index resistance zone at 104.00 held once again. The dollar index finished 0.11% higher at 103.66 having traded in a wide range intra-day. The risk aversion China slowdown price action seen in equities has spilt into currency markets today, lifting the US dollar after US 10-year yields closed comfortably above 3.0% on Friday. The dollar index has risen 0.34% to 104.00 and is, once again, making a determined test of resistance here. Support at 102.50 remains intact. A close above 104.00 will signal rapid gains to 105.00 and in the bigger picture, the technical picture still says a multi-month rally to above 120.00 is possible. EUR/USD and GBP/USD have fallen by 0.35% today to 1.0508 and 1.2290. EUR/USD support at 1.0470 is in jeopardy, while GBP/USD is threatening the Friday lows of 1.2275, having closed on support at 1.2325 last week. EUR/USD rallies above 1.0650 will be challenging to sustain now, with the 45-year trendline at 1.0800 now distant. Similarly, GBP/USD will run into headwinds between 1.2400 and 1.2500. The technical picture signals much lower levels for both and a formal declaration of war from Mr Putin against Ukraine today will signal a test of 1.0300 and 1.2000 in the coming days, if not sooner. USD/JPY has crept higher over the past few sessions, rising 0.30% today to 130.95. With the Bank of Japan showing no signs of adjusting its 0.25% JGB yield cap, and US rates continuing to climb as the Fed gets busy fighting inflation, downside pressure on the yen seems inevitable. Support lies at 128.50, but a rally by USD/JPY through 131.35 sets the stage for a move to the 135.00 area. Plummeting stock markets in Asia appear to be prompting heavy outflows from Asian currencies today, with USD/CNH and USD/CNY over 0.50%, as are the USD/THB and USD/INR. Elsewhere across the region, the US dollar has booked 0.30% plus gains versus the IDR, SGD, MYR, and KRW. Chinese officials have still not made overt noises about the pace of the CNY sell-off to 6.7050, despite setting a slightly stronger fixing today. USD/INR has traded at all-time highs around 77.255 today and has fallen around 1.80% since the RBI’s last week. That does leave the RBI in somewhat of a bind, and it is an issue the Bank Indonesia and others around Asia will be feeling sooner, rather than later. In the first instance, thanks to Asia’s huge FX reserves, I expect some judicious “smoothing” to be the first strategy. Indonesia, the Philippines, and South Korea have already taken this route, I suspect. If international sentiment continues to fall and the US dollar continues to gain, those noises may get louder, but ultimately, regional central banks will fight a losing battle if China remains comfortable with yuan depreciation. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Doge (DOGE) Vs Bitcoin (BTC) - Elon Musk Comments!

(USDT) Tether's Not That Stable? JPY Goes Higher, How Will It Perform Against US Dollar? | Saxo Bank

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 12.05.2022 15:42
Summary:  Fires are springing up everywhere and it feels like markets are under siege, but the volatility curve doesn’t even look particularly alarming yet. We focus on the areas that could continue to keep markets on tilt, including the breaking of the largest "stable" coin Tether already in evidence today after Bitcoin melted through a huge chart level yesterday, the Hong Kong dollar peg under pressure, the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark triangle, etc. In FX, the focus is on the jolt higher in the JPY even more so than the ongoing USD strength, while commodity traders have it relatively easy on the volatility front. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast and have a look at today’s slide deck. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Read next: Saxo Bank: Markets are assessing the global growth outlook and the pace of Fed tightening| FXMAG.COM   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Read next: Philip Morris Buys Match, Fed Members Spills The Tea And Gold Price Nears Quite Low Values | Saxo Bank| FXMAG.COM   Source: Saxo Bank
Euro-dollar Support Tested Amidst Rate Concerns and Labor Strikes

FX Update: Bond rally supercharges JPY comeback rally. | Saxo Bank

John Hardy John Hardy 12.05.2022 16:01
Summary:  An extension of the rout in risky assets has continued to drive the US dollar higher against the smaller currencies and most G10 currencies as well, but the Japanese yen has not only taken on a new shine, but is even sharply stronger against the strong US dollar as global bonds have suddenly rediscovered their safe haven appeal. Elsewhere, HKD is worth watching as the HKMA intervened for the first time of this cycle to maintain the top of the USDHKD band. FX Trading focus: JPY woke up and smelled the coffee. Watching HKD as USD presses upper level of USDHKD band. The JPY upside potential has been more fully realized since yesterday on the heavy weight of falling yields in global sovereign bond, which are finally serving their function as a go-to safe haven in an environment of generally risk deleveraging. The JPY is even handily outpacing the ongoing strength in the US dollar as the yield focus dominates. And the technical damage in JPY crosses is spreading: NZDJPY and GBPJPY, the latter our focus yesterday, are already trading back into old ranges that preceded the JPY sell-off sparked by the commodity rally in the wake after Russia invaded Ukraine. Now watching AUDJPY and EURJPY for whether the feat is repeated there (key levels around 86.00 and 134.00, respectively), and CNHJPY has come down hard, with more to come. More thoughts on the most important USDJPY pair below in the chart discussion. The JPY can continue higher, but the price is far “fairer” now relative to long term bond yields. Yields must extend lower still, possibly with a helping hand from crude oi and LNG prices for a full reversal of the JPY sell-off since late February.  Chart: USDJPYYesterday, our focus in JPY crosses was on GBPJPY, which took out the 160.00 and 158.00 area supports yesterday. Today we have a look at the big one: USDJPY and what levels might trigger a more notably slide. Arguably, the first of these has already been under strain today in the 128.50 area. Regardless, the direction of the US 10-year benchmark yield is the key coincident indicator, with global energy prices a secondary indicator. The next support area below is the 127.03 pivot low followed perhaps by the 125.00 area, which was a stopping point on the way up. Source: Saxo Group Sterling suffered a sell-off to new lows in the wake of the Q1 GDP data, which showed a +8.7% growth rate, slightly below expectations, but a -0.1% month-on-month figure for March, with weak production figures to boot. The March Trade Balance data was also out and showed a toe-curling negative £23.8B trade balance, a staggering figure. Still, after a run to fresh lows against the G3 currencies, the EURGBP rally reversed rather sharply, in part as EURUSD tipped over to new lows after a couple of weeks of defending the 1.0500 support area. All traders should monitor the crypto situation as a possible aggravator of additional volatility risk across markets. The TerraUSD “stable coin” broke its parity level with the US dollar earlier this week and traded as much as 70% below par. Then yesterday, a key Bitcoin support level at 30,000 broke, possibly inspiring the instability of the Tether stable coin, which is a commonly used as a kind of parking space between going in and out of crypto trades and in and out of the crypo market itself. The Tether coin traded as much as 5% below par against the US dollar this morning before the whole crypto-complex recovered. More directly pertinent to FX, we have to watch the Hong Kong dollar (HKD), as the USD strength has taken the USDHKD exchange rate to the upper limit of its band at 7.85 and has seen the Hong Kong Monetary Authority out intervening for the first time of this cycle overnight. The HKMA will also need to copy Fed policy to avoid the worst of pressure on the HKD, even with Hong Kong’s economy in a funk. The HKD band is one of those legacy set-ups that makes little sense here almost forty years after its creation, but Hong Kong remains a key gateway into and out of the mainland Chinese economy, and China probably doesn’t want to add HKD instability to its long list of challenges. Note the Chinese demand concerns continuing to weigh on the copper price, which has punched to the lowest reaches of the range since early 2021. This in turn weighs on the Aussie, which itself has punched to new lows for the cycle. The CAD has gotten off easy so far by comparison, perhaps as oil prices remain in the higher range here – but after breaking above resistance, if USDCAD loses its tethering to the 1.3000 area it is in danger of a sharp extension higher. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.We have noted the euro resilience of late, but signs of this crumbling today as EURUSD, EURCHF and especially EURJPY come under pressure. But the development of note here is the strong revival of the JPY momentum and outright positive trend measurement in recent days. Elsewhere, CAD looks too strong with this backdrop, although there is quite a race to the bottom of late among the weakest horses in G10 FX. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.Note EURJPY and CADJPY trying to join other JPY crosses in flipping to the negative side after the sharp JPY rally today. All G10 currency pairs save for a few GBP pairs (due to Brexit-related events) are in the highest 10% of their ATRs of the last 1000 trading days, as shown in the dark orange shading for the ATR readings. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1230 – US Apr. PPI 1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 1800 – US 30-year T-Bond auction 1800 – Mexico Overnight Rate Announcement
UK Budget: Short-term positives to be met with medium-term caution

COT Currency Speculators raised British Pound Sterling bearish bets for 10th week

Invest Macro Invest Macro 15.05.2022 14:26
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for this week’s Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data this week was the rise in bearish bets for the British pound sterling currency futures contracts. Pound speculators have raised their bearish bets for a tenth consecutive week this week and for the eleventh time out of the past twelve weeks. Over the past ten-week time-frame, pound bets have dropped by a total of -79,261 contracts, going from -337 net positions on March 1st to a total of -79,598 net positions this week. The deterioration in speculator sentiment has now pushed the pound net position to the most bearish standing of the past one hundred and thirty-seven weeks, dating back to September 24th of 2019. Pound sterling sentiment has been hit by a recent slowing economy as the UK GDP declined by 0.1 percent in March after flat growth in February. Also, weighing on the UK economy is the war in Ukraine that has sharply raised inflation in the country (and elsewhere) and which could see the UK economy with the lowest growth rate among G7 countries in 2023, according to the IMF. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Euro (22,907 contracts), US Dollar Index (1,705 contracts), Bitcoin (315 contracts) and the Mexican peso (2,102 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Japanese yen (-9,660 contracts), Australian dollar (-13,198 contracts), Brazil real (-1,010 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,856 contracts), British pound sterling (-5,785 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-6,386 contracts), Canadian dollar (-14,436 contracts), Russian ruble (-263 contracts) and the Mexican peso (2,102 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend May-10-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index USD Index 57,556 84 34,776 86 -37,174 13 2,398 43 EUR 705,046 84 16,529 40 -43,026 64 26,497 18 GBP 264,594 80 -79,598 17 95,245 86 -15,647 23 JPY 247,278 87 -110,454 1 124,927 97 -14,473 24 CHF 51,282 37 -15,763 40 29,819 69 -14,056 16 CAD 151,009 31 -5,407 38 2,939 67 2,468 35 AUD 153,209 47 -41,714 46 47,126 54 -5,412 39 NZD 56,235 56 -12,996 49 16,874 56 -3,878 7 MXN 153,858 28 16,725 34 -20,866 64 4,141 61 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 61,450 55 40,778 90 -42,031 10 1,253 79 Bitcoin 10,841 57 703 100 -789 0 86 15 Open Interest is the amount of contracts that were live in the marketplace at time of data. US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 34,776 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,705 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,071 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 86.6 3.2 8.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.2 67.8 4.5 – Net Position: 34,776 -37,174 2,398 – Gross Longs: 49,864 1,837 4,970 – Gross Shorts: 15,088 39,011 2,572 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.3 to 1 0.0 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 85.8 12.8 42.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.6 -3.4 -19.3   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,529 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 22,907 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,378 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.4 53.3 12.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.0 59.4 8.3 – Net Position: 16,529 -43,026 26,497 – Gross Longs: 228,230 376,043 84,921 – Gross Shorts: 211,701 419,069 58,424 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 40.1 63.8 18.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.5 1.2 0.9   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -79,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,785 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -73,813 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.1 79.6 7.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.2 43.6 13.5 – Net Position: -79,598 95,245 -15,647 – Gross Longs: 29,469 210,627 20,157 – Gross Shorts: 109,067 115,382 35,804 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.6 86.0 23.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -28.5 25.6 -7.7   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -110,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,660 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -100,794 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.5 86.2 8.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 49.2 35.7 13.9 – Net Position: -110,454 124,927 -14,473 – Gross Longs: 11,196 213,084 19,811 – Gross Shorts: 121,650 88,157 34,284 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.4 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.8 96.6 24.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.1 0.0 16.7   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -15,763 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,856 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,907 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.2 74.6 16.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.0 16.5 43.5 – Net Position: -15,763 29,819 -14,056 – Gross Longs: 4,727 38,258 8,271 – Gross Shorts: 20,490 8,439 22,327 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 4.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.8 69.2 15.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.7 8.0 -7.6   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,407 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,029 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.6 49.8 21.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.2 47.9 20.1 – Net Position: -5,407 2,939 2,468 – Gross Longs: 38,679 75,215 32,880 – Gross Shorts: 44,086 72,276 30,412 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.3 66.9 34.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.0 14.5 -29.0   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -41,714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,198 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,516 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.1 59.9 13.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.3 29.1 16.7 – Net Position: -41,714 47,126 -5,412 – Gross Longs: 36,869 91,731 20,131 – Gross Shorts: 78,583 44,605 25,543 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.2 54.0 39.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.3 4.7 -34.4   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -12,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,386 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,610 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.0 68.5 3.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.1 38.5 10.8 – Net Position: -12,996 16,874 -3,878 – Gross Longs: 15,203 38,541 2,216 – Gross Shorts: 28,199 21,667 6,094 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.5 56.4 7.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -20.4 26.0 -54.4   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,725 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,102 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,623 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.5 53.1 4.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.7 66.7 1.5 – Net Position: 16,725 -20,866 4,141 – Gross Longs: 63,921 81,735 6,467 – Gross Shorts: 47,196 102,601 2,326 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 34.5 64.1 60.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.6 -10.1 -3.5   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 40,778 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,010 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,788 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 79.5 15.4 5.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.1 83.8 3.0 – Net Position: 40,778 -42,031 1,253 – Gross Longs: 48,835 9,454 3,070 – Gross Shorts: 8,057 51,485 1,817 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.5 10.3 79.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.8 3.5 -20.6   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 7,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,806 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.6 60.6 2.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 0.5 94.7 4.7 – Net Position: 7,543 -7,150 -393 – Gross Longs: 7,658 12,679 593 – Gross Shorts: 115 19,829 986 – Long to Short Ratio: 66.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.2 69.1 23.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.6 16.7 -18.8   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 703 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 315 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 388 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 81.1 2.1 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 74.6 9.4 8.3 – Net Position: 703 -789 86 – Gross Longs: 8,789 227 989 – Gross Shorts: 8,086 1,016 903 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 14.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 19.0 -24.9 -13.6   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
US Dollar To Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Forecast: Three reasons to sell the pair as the tides turn against it | FXStreet

US Dollar To Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Forecast: Three reasons to sell the pair as the tides turn against it | FXStreet

FXStreet News FXStreet News 16.05.2022 16:09
The yen has returned to attracting safe-haven flows as China's covid crisis intensifies. Fear of a Fed-fueled recession is pushing 10-year Treasury yields lower. Technicals are pointing to a clear peak and a clearer downtrend. USD/JPY bearish – there are good reasons to expect the currency pair to fall, and the trade seems more straightforward than other ones. *Note: This content first appeared as an answer to a Premium user. Sign up and get unfettered access to our analysts and exclusive content. 1) When things go wrong in Asia, buy the yen The yen benefits from safe-haven flows related to China's aggressive policies against covid. Lockdowns in Shanghai and Beijing, the world's second-largest economies largest and most important cities, are hurting the economy. Recent retail sales figures showed a plunge of 11.1% YoY in April, nearly double the early expectations and a sign of falling demand. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM Not only consumption is dropping. Industrial output also badly missed estimates with a fall of 2.9% YoY, worse than the 0.5% increase projected. Japanese investors are repatriating investments in China and other places in Asia. The yen's status as a safe currency is mostly seen when there is trouble in its own continent. 2) The wrong yields are rising The second reason for the USD/JPY decline – and the potential for more – comes from the US. The Federal Reserve's aggressive policy of raising interest rates has been positive for the pair, especially as it contrasted with the Bank of Japan's dovish policy. However, there can be too much of a good thing. Read next: (TRX) TRON USD Decentralised Blockchain Platform That Focuses On Entertainment And Content Sharing. Altcoins: A Deep Look Into The TRON Network | FXMAG.COM While short-term Treasury yields continue rising – reflecting expectations for higher inflation and higher borrowing costs – the part that is relevant to USD/JPY is turning south. Returns on 10-year bonds have declined from their peak above 3% as investors begin pricing in growing chances of a recession. Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs said it is "a very high risk" and that consumers and businesses should get ready. That prophecy may be self-fulfilling. 3) Technical decline Third, the technical tide has turned against the pair. It has begun trading in a downtrend channel, with lower highs and lower lows. Momentum on the 4h-chart has turned negative, the RSI has failed to climb above the 50 level, and the price is capped at the 100-SMA – after falling below the 50-SMA. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM Support is at 128.70, which cushioned the pair twice in May. The monthly low of 127.50 is the next level to watch, and it also converges with the 200-SMA. Further down, 126.90 and 126.40 are noteworthy. Resistance is at 1.2950, and then at 130.90. Final thoughts The list above provides ample ammunition for bears, and bulls may need to cling to hopes for further yen-printing from the Bank of Japan – a highly unlikely scenario given the current, already extremely loose monetary policy.
Forex Speculators weaken Commodity Currency sentiment over last month - 22.05.2022

Forex Speculators weaken Commodity Currency sentiment over last month - 22.05.2022

Invest Macro Invest Macro 22.05.2022 12:34
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Click for larger image Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the commodity currency speculator positions that have been on the defensive in recent weeks. Canadian dollar positions declined for a fourth straight week this week and have fallen by a total of -35,722 contracts over the past four weeks. This has pushed the overall speculator standing into a bearish position for a second straight week and to the most bearish level since October 2021. Previously, from the middle of January, CAD positions had started to trend higher and mostly maintained a bullish position into April, reaching a 40-week high on April 19th before seeing speculator sentiment weaken (-14,496 contracts this week). Australian dollar spec positions slipped for a third straight week this week and the overall speculator position has now hit a 7-week low. Aussie positions have maintained a bearish speculator bias since last May (52 consecutive weeks in bearish territory) but had recently seen a reprieve of the weak sentiment. Aussie positions improved strongly from late-February to late-April with a 10-week contract rise of +59,043 positions from February 22nd to April 26th. The speculator positions hit the least bearish level (on April 26th) of the previous 42 weeks before these past 3 weeks has seen speculators re-up their bearish levels. New Zealand dollar speculators also added to their bearish bets for a fourth straight week and have now pushed the position to the most bearish level since March 17th of 2020, a span of 113 weeks. Kiwi speculator positions had spent almost all of 2021 in bullish levels but spec bets started to falter at the end of the year and into the new year (through early March). Recently, positions had turned positive to bullish positioning in the middle of March and again later in April before turning lower in recent weeks. The NZD speculator sentiment has now been in bearish territory for the past three weeks after dropping by a total of -18,132 contracts from April 26th to this week. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the US Dollar Index (1,437 contracts), Japanese yen (8,145 contracts), Euro (3,810 contracts), British pound sterling (357 contracts), Bitcoin (103 contracts) and the Mexican peso (11,490 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the New Zealand dollar (-4,771 contracts), Canadian dollar (-9,089 contracts), Australian dollar (-2,928 contracts), Brazil real (-2,683 contracts) and the Swiss franc (-829 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend May-17-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 61,899 93 36,213 88 -39,506 9 3,293 53 EUR 706,712 85 20,339 41 -51,517 61 31,178 26 GBP 253,811 73 -79,241 17 94,344 85 -15,103 24 JPY 241,308 83 -102,309 6 115,062 92 -12,753 28 CHF 53,291 42 -16,592 37 31,181 72 -14,589 14 CAD 151,585 31 -14,496 28 12,591 75 1,905 34 AUD 163,809 55 -44,642 43 54,437 59 -9,795 29 NZD 60,804 64 -17,767 41 21,390 63 -3,623 10 MXN 170,924 36 28,215 39 -32,249 59 4,034 60 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 55,990 48 38,095 88 -39,436 13 1,341 80 Bitcoin 11,644 63 806 100 -875 0 69 15   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 36,213 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,437 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,776 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 86.5 3.4 8.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.0 67.2 3.5 – Net Position: 36,213 -39,506 3,293 – Gross Longs: 53,519 2,105 5,449 – Gross Shorts: 17,306 41,611 2,156 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.1 to 1 0.1 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.2 9.0 52.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.5 -7.2 -0.5   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 20,339 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,810 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,529 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.7 52.7 12.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.8 59.9 7.7 – Net Position: 20,339 -51,517 31,178 – Gross Longs: 230,770 372,113 85,455 – Gross Shorts: 210,431 423,630 54,277 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 41.2 61.4 26.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.2 -0.5 14.8   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -79,241 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 357 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,598 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.5 79.4 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.7 42.3 14.1 – Net Position: -79,241 94,344 -15,103 – Gross Longs: 26,613 201,647 20,811 – Gross Shorts: 105,854 107,303 35,914 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.9 85.5 24.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -27.0 21.6 1.9   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -102,309 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,145 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -110,454 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.0 84.7 8.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 47.4 37.0 14.0 – Net Position: -102,309 115,062 -12,753 – Gross Longs: 12,113 204,417 20,933 – Gross Shorts: 114,422 89,355 33,686 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 5.9 91.8 27.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.9 -5.0 17.6   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -16,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -829 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,763 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.8 74.5 15.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.0 16.0 42.6 – Net Position: -16,592 31,181 -14,589 – Gross Longs: 5,240 39,722 8,094 – Gross Shorts: 21,832 8,541 22,683 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 4.7 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 36.6 72.3 13.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.9 12.9 -19.8   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -14,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,089 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,407 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.8 52.7 20.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.4 44.4 19.3 – Net Position: -14,496 12,591 1,905 – Gross Longs: 36,069 79,825 31,228 – Gross Shorts: 50,565 67,234 29,323 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.5 75.0 33.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.4 33.9 -43.0   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -44,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,928 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,714 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.3 60.4 11.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.6 27.1 17.7 – Net Position: -44,642 54,437 -9,795 – Gross Longs: 41,473 98,903 19,187 – Gross Shorts: 86,115 44,466 28,982 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.4 59.5 28.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.6 24.0 -60.9   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -17,767 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,771 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,996 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.7 71.1 3.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 53.9 35.9 9.8 – Net Position: -17,767 21,390 -3,623 – Gross Longs: 14,998 43,219 2,358 – Gross Shorts: 32,765 21,829 5,981 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 41.5 63.4 10.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -27.2 32.7 -57.5   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 28,215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 11,490 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,725 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 45.5 49.1 4.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.0 67.9 1.7 – Net Position: 28,215 -32,249 4,034 – Gross Longs: 77,819 83,844 7,000 – Gross Shorts: 49,604 116,093 2,966 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.4 59.4 60.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.6 -11.0 -3.5   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 38,095 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,683 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,778 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 76.8 16.9 6.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.7 87.3 3.7 – Net Position: 38,095 -39,436 1,341 – Gross Longs: 42,989 9,470 3,438 – Gross Shorts: 4,894 48,906 2,097 – Long to Short Ratio: 8.8 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 87.8 12.8 80.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.3 8.3 -12.8   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 806 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 103 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 703 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 82.1 1.7 9.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 75.2 9.2 8.7 – Net Position: 806 -875 69 – Gross Longs: 9,564 194 1,081 – Gross Shorts: 8,758 1,069 1,012 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 14.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.1 -29.8 -13.0   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.  
Currency Speculators reboot their Euro bullish bets to a 6-Week High

Currency Speculators reboot their Euro bullish bets to a 6-Week High

Invest Macro Invest Macro 28.05.2022 21:32
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Click to Enlarge Highlighting the COT currency data is the bounce-back for the Euro currency futures contracts. Euro speculative positions jumped by over +18,000 contracts this week and rose for a third consecutive week. This week marked the second time in the past three weeks that speculator positions increased by more than +18,000 contracts (+22,907 contracts on May 10th) and now Euro bets have gained by a total of +45,308 contracts over the past three weeks. The speculator’s bullish position marks the highest standing of the past six weeks at +38,930 contracts. Euro speculator positions had recently fallen into a bearish speculative level on May 3rd (-6,378 contracts) after dropping by a total of -45,438 contracts from April 19th to May 3rd. This was the first bearish position for the Euro since early January. The speculator sentiment has been weaker so far in 2022 compared to preceding years as Euro bets are averaging just +29,199 weekly contracts in 2022. This compares to the Euro bets average of +60,837 weekly contracts over 2021 and an average of +92,464 weekly contracts over 2020. The recent improvement in Euro positions comes amid increasing expectations for the European Central Bank to start raising interest rates higher and end their negative interest rate regime in the third quarter. The Euro exchange rate recently hit its lowest level versus the US Dollar since January of 2017 with a drop to approximately 1.350 (EUR/USD) on May 13th. Since then, the Euro has rallied over the past couple of weeks and closed Friday at the 1.0733 exchange rate. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Euro (18,591 contracts), US Dollar Index (1,826 contracts), Japanese yen (2,865 contracts), Brazil real (619 contracts), Canadian dollar (1,809 contracts), Mexican peso (1,577 contracts) and Bitcoin (43 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Australian dollar (-804 contracts), Swiss franc (-3,081 contracts), British pound sterling (-1,131 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (-1,554 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each market where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend May-24-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 61,857 93 38,039 91 -40,877 7 2,838 48 EUR 708,938 86 38,930 47 -72,600 55 33,670 30 GBP 253,864 73 -80,372 16 97,042 87 -16,670 21 JPY 237,256 80 -99,444 8 106,699 88 -7,255 39 CHF 49,918 38 -19,673 31 31,694 76 -12,021 17 CAD 138,508 22 -12,687 30 6,933 71 5,754 41 AUD 158,615 51 -45,446 43 53,269 59 -7,823 33 NZD 59,279 61 -19,321 39 22,703 65 -3,382 13 MXN 177,125 39 29,792 40 -34,352 58 4,560 62 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 63,976 59 38,714 88 -40,501 12 1,787 86 Bitcoin 11,729 64 849 100 -817 0 -32 12   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 38,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,826 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,213 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 86.8 3.5 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.3 69.6 3.6 – Net Position: 38,039 -40,877 2,838 – Gross Longs: 53,675 2,157 5,076 – Gross Shorts: 15,636 43,034 2,238 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.4 to 1 0.1 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.4 6.7 47.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 14.5 -8.0 -39.1   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 38,930 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 18,591 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,339 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.4 51.7 12.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.9 61.9 7.6 – Net Position: 38,930 -72,600 33,670 – Gross Longs: 237,072 366,345 87,892 – Gross Shorts: 198,142 438,945 54,222 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.0 55.4 30.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.0 -3.4 19.8   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -80,372 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,131 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,241 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.2 80.3 7.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.9 42.1 14.1 – Net Position: -80,372 97,042 -16,670 – Gross Longs: 25,936 203,802 19,107 – Gross Shorts: 106,308 106,760 35,777 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.9 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.1 87.1 21.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -19.7 15.4 2.5   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -99,444 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,865 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,309 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.0 81.0 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.9 36.0 13.5 – Net Position: -99,444 106,699 -7,255 – Gross Longs: 16,567 192,215 24,858 – Gross Shorts: 116,011 85,516 32,113 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 7.6 87.7 38.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.6 -12.3 26.0   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -19,673 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,081 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,592 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 2.7 80.0 16.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 42.1 16.5 40.7 – Net Position: -19,673 31,694 -12,021 – Gross Longs: 1,355 39,913 8,308 – Gross Shorts: 21,028 8,219 20,329 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 4.9 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 30.8 76.2 16.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.8 12.1 -12.4   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -12,687 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,809 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,496 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.9 54.1 23.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.1 49.1 19.0 – Net Position: -12,687 6,933 5,754 – Gross Longs: 28,999 74,953 32,048 – Gross Shorts: 41,686 68,020 26,294 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 30.4 71.1 41.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -25.9 32.1 -30.9   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -45,446 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -804 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,642 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.1 62.7 11.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.7 29.1 16.7 – Net Position: -45,446 53,269 -7,823 – Gross Longs: 36,579 99,401 18,615 – Gross Shorts: 82,025 46,132 26,438 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.7 58.6 33.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.5 26.4 -45.5   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -19,321 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,554 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,767 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.1 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.1 76.7 3.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.7 38.4 9.4 – Net Position: -19,321 22,703 -3,382 – Gross Longs: 10,749 45,458 2,202 – Gross Shorts: 30,070 22,755 5,584 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.8 65.4 13.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -31.9 35.7 -46.9   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 29,792 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,577 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,215 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 46.9 47.7 4.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.1 67.1 1.7 – Net Position: 29,792 -34,352 4,560 – Gross Longs: 83,031 84,474 7,605 – Gross Shorts: 53,239 118,826 3,045 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 40.1 58.5 62.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.3 -6.2 -0.1   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 38,714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 619 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,095 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 70.5 22.1 6.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.9 85.4 3.2 – Net Position: 38,714 -40,501 1,787 – Gross Longs: 45,076 14,132 3,826 – Gross Shorts: 6,362 54,633 2,039 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.1 to 1 0.3 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.4 11.8 85.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.3 8.2 -12.2   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of 849 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 43 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 806 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 82.9 1.2 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 75.7 8.2 9.4 – Net Position: 849 -817 -32 – Gross Longs: 9,723 141 1,072 – Gross Shorts: 8,874 958 1,104 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.1 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 3.6 12.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.0 -23.6 -6.9   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
The EUR/USD Pair Maintains The Bullish Sentiment

Euro Currency Speculators continue to boost their bullish bets for 4th Week

Invest Macro Invest Macro 04.06.2022 22:45
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the further gains in bullish bets for the Euro currency futures contracts. Euro speculators boosted their bullish bets for a fourth straight week this week and for the sixth time in the past ten weeks. Over the past four-week time-frame, Euro bets have risen by a total of +58,650 contracts, going from -6,378 net positions on May 3rd to a total of +52,272 net positions this week. This week marks the highest Euro speculator standing in the past twelve weeks. The recent improvement in Euro positions has taken place with a very strong change in sentiment as just four weeks ago the overall position had fallen into bearish territory. The Euro sentiment has been so bad that analysts have been making predictions for an inevitable decline of the Euro into parity versus the dollar. However, recently there has been rising expectations that the European Central Bank will be more hawkish towards interest rates in the near future (despite the weak outlook for EU GDP growth) and will end their negative interest rate policy. Over the past few weeks, the EUR/USD exchange rate has rebounded after falling to a multi-year low of 1.0350 in early May. This week the EUR/USD hit a weekly high of 1.0787 before closing at the 1.0719 exchange rate. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Euro (13,342 contracts), Brazil real (6,602 contracts), British pound sterling (6,267 contracts), Canadian dollar (5,680 contracts), Mexican peso (5,657 contracts), Japanese yen (5,005 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (597 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-501 contracts), Australian dollar (-3,236 contracts), Swiss franc (-785 contracts) and Bitcoin (-446 contracts). Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that most of the currency markets are below their midpoint (50 percent) of the last 3 years. The Brazil Real, US Dollar Index and Bitcoin are currently in extreme bullish levels. Strength score trends (or move index, that show 6-week changes in strength scores) shows the recent strong weakness in the commodity currencies (AUD, NZD and CAD) as well as the Swiss franc. Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend May-31-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index USD Index 63,863 98 37,538 91 -41,327 6 3,789 58 EUR 706,317 85 52,272 51 -85,186 52 32,914 29 GBP 252,881 72 -74,105 21 87,172 81 -13,067 29 JPY 239,080 81 -94,439 11 105,049 87 -10,610 32 CHF 49,579 40 -20,458 10 29,851 87 -9,393 26 CAD 135,929 21 -7,007 34 -327 68 7,334 44 AUD 153,661 48 -48,682 40 51,128 57 -2,446 46 NZD 55,134 53 -18,724 40 21,374 63 -2,650 21 MXN 212,843 55 35,449 42 -40,143 56 4,694 63 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 74,146 73 45,316 95 -47,670 5 2,354 92 Bitcoin 10,900 58 403 92 -503 0 100 15   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 37,538 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -501 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,039 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 85.9 3.7 8.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.1 68.4 2.8 – Net Position: 37,538 -41,327 3,789 – Gross Longs: 54,859 2,355 5,605 – Gross Shorts: 17,321 43,682 1,816 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.2 to 1 0.1 to 1 3.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.5 5.9 58.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.6 -9.0 5.2   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 52,272 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 13,342 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,930 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.5 51.7 12.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.1 63.8 7.7 – Net Position: 52,272 -85,186 32,914 – Gross Longs: 236,553 365,434 87,138 – Gross Shorts: 184,281 450,620 54,224 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.0 51.9 28.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.4 -10.1 24.0   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -74,105 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,267 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -80,372 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.2 76.6 7.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.5 42.2 12.9 – Net Position: -74,105 87,172 -13,067 – Gross Longs: 30,788 193,786 19,446 – Gross Shorts: 104,893 106,614 32,513 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 20.6 81.2 28.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.9 8.4 1.9   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -94,439 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,005 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -99,444 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.4 82.2 9.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.9 38.3 13.9 – Net Position: -94,439 105,049 -10,610 – Gross Longs: 15,201 196,584 22,605 – Gross Shorts: 109,640 91,535 33,215 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 10.7 86.9 31.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.9 -12.1 24.5   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -20,458 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -785 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,673 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.3 75.6 17.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.6 15.4 36.3 – Net Position: -20,458 29,851 -9,393 – Gross Longs: 2,641 37,473 8,596 – Gross Shorts: 23,099 7,622 17,989 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 4.9 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 10.3 87.0 25.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -21.5 10.4 7.5   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -7,007 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,680 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,687 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.5 51.5 24.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.6 51.7 18.6 – Net Position: -7,007 -327 7,334 – Gross Longs: 30,520 70,006 32,660 – Gross Shorts: 37,527 70,333 25,326 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.7 68.5 44.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -30.7 32.5 -21.5   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -48,682 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,236 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,446 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.4 63.1 12.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 53.1 29.9 14.4 – Net Position: -48,682 51,128 -2,446 – Gross Longs: 32,897 97,031 19,659 – Gross Shorts: 81,579 45,903 22,105 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.7 57.0 46.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.4 22.6 -25.6   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -18,724 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 597 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,321 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.6 76.2 5.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.6 37.4 9.8 – Net Position: -18,724 21,374 -2,650 – Gross Longs: 9,179 42,010 2,762 – Gross Shorts: 27,903 20,636 5,412 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.8 63.3 21.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -32.0 32.2 -20.4   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 35,449 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,657 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,792 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 53.8 41.8 3.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.1 60.6 1.3 – Net Position: 35,449 -40,143 4,694 – Gross Longs: 114,480 88,894 7,396 – Gross Shorts: 79,031 129,037 2,702 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.5 56.1 62.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.9 -5.8 0.6   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 45,316 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,602 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,714 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 71.3 22.4 5.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 10.2 86.7 2.7 – Net Position: 45,316 -47,670 2,354 – Gross Longs: 52,896 16,595 4,372 – Gross Shorts: 7,580 64,265 2,018 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.0 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.9 4.8 92.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.7 -0.6 -1.6     Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 403 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 849 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 79.6 1.5 9.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 75.9 6.1 8.6 – Net Position: 403 -503 100 – Gross Longs: 8,680 159 1,033 – Gross Shorts: 8,277 662 933 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.5 23.2 15.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.3 -20.4 -6.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 31/5/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 31/5/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 07.06.2022 15:38
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 31/5/2022 Total net speculator positions on the USD index fell by 501 contracts last week to 37,538 contracts. This change is the result of an increase in long positions by 1,184 contracts and an increase in short positions by 1,685 contracts. Significant fact is the further bullish movement in speculators' positions for the euro currency futures contracts. This week, the euro speculators increased their bullish positions for the fourth consecutive week and the sixth time in the last ten weeks. Over the past four weeks, speculators' total net positions in the euro have increased by a total of +58,650 contracts, from -6,378 net positions on May 3 to a total of +52,272 net positions last week. Total net positions for the euro are the highest in twelve weeks. The recent improvement in euro positions has come with a very significant change in sentiment, as just four weeks ago the total position had fallen into bearish territory. Sentiment in the euro was so bad that analysts were talking about the inevitable decline of the euro to parity against the dollar. Recently, however, expectations have been growing that the European Central Bank will become more hawkish on interest rates in the near future and end its negative interest rate policy, causing the euro to strengthen. In addition to the euro, speculators' total net positions rose on the British pound, the New Zealand dollar, the Canadian dollar and the Japanese yen. On the Australian dollar and the Swiss franc, total net positions fell last week. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF May 31, 2022 37538 52272 -74105 -48682 -18724 -94439 -7007 -20458 May 24, 2022 38039 38930 -80372 -45446 -19321 -99444 -12687 -19673 May 17, 2022 36213 20339 -79241 -44642 -17767 -102309 -14496 -16592 May 10, 2022 34776 16529 -79598 -41714 -12996 -110454 -5407 -15763 May 03, 2022 33071 -6378 -73813 -28516 -6610 -100794 9029 -13907 Apr 26, 2022 33879 22201 -69621 -27651 66 -95535 20881 -12869   Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com     The Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment May 31, 2022 706317 236553 184281 52272 -2621 -519 -13861 13342 Bullish May 24, 2022 708938 237072 198142 38930 2226 6302 -12289 18591 Bullish May 17, 2022 706712 230770 210431 20339 1666 2540 -1270 3810 Bullish May 10 2022 705046 228230 211701 16529 10120 19781 3126 22907 Bullish May 03, 2022 694926 208449 214827 -6378 6477 -14544 14035 -28579 Bearish Apr 26, 2022 688449 222993 200792 22201 12510 1990 11090 -9100 Weak bullish         Total change 30378 15550 -5421 20971     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EUR/USD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 52,272 contracts last week, up by 13,342 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 519 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 13,861 contracts. This data suggests bullish sentiment as the total net positions are positive while there has been an increase. Open interest fell by 2,621 contracts in the last week. This shows that the move that occurred in the euro last week was not supported by the volume and it was therefore a weak price action. The price has reached the EMA 50 moving average on the daily chart, at which it is oscillating, showing that there is a resistance here. Long-term resistance: 1.0800 – 1.0840 Support: 1.0620 – 1-0630. The next support is in the zone 1.0340 – 1.0420.   The British pound   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment May 31, 2022 252881 30788 104893 -74105 -983 4852 -1415 6267 Weak bearish May 24, 2022 253864 25936 106308 -80372 53 -677 454 -1131 Bearish May 17, 2022 253811 26613 105854 -79241 -10783 -2856 -3213 357 Weak bearish May 10, 2022 264594 29469 109067 -79598 -3902 -4067 1718 -5785 Bearish May 03, 2022 268496 33536 107349 -73813 -4296 -6900 -2708 -4192 Bearish Apr 26, 2022 272792 40436 110057 -69621 23263 3625 14332 -10707 Bearish         Total change 3352 -6023 9168 -15191     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBP/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week amounted to 74,105 contracts, up by 6,267 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 4,852 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 1,415 contracts. This indicates weak bearish sentiment as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, but at the same time there has been an increase in total net positions. The open interest fell by 983 contracts last week, indicating that the downward movement in the pound that occurred last week was not supported by the volume and it was therefore a weak price action. Long-term resistance: 1.2700 – 1.2760.    Support: 1.2160 – 1.2200.     The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment May 31, 2022 153661 32897 81579 -48682 -4954 -3682 -446 -3236 Bearish May 24, 2022 158615 36579 82025 -45446 -5194 -4894 -4090 -804 Bearish May 17, 2022 163809 41473 86115 -44642 10600 4604 7532 -2928 Bearish May 10, 2022 153209 36869 78583 -41714 952 -10126 3072 13198 Bearish May 03, 2022 152257 46995 75511 -28516 5167 -110 755 -865 Bearish Apr 26, 2022 147090 47105 74756 -27651 -219 7904 6718 1186 Weak bearish         Total change 6352 -6304 13541 -19845     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUD/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week amounted to 48,682 contracts, down by 3,236 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 3,682 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 446 contracts. This data suggests bearish sentiment on the Australian dollar, as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, while at the same time there has been a further decline in the past week. There was a decline in open interest of 4,954 contracts last week. This means that the upward movement that occurred last week was not supported by the volume and it was therefore weak price action. The price has currently reached the horizontal resistance at 0.7260 where a reaction occurred. If this resistance is  broken, a further bullish movement could continue. Long-term resistance: 0.7250-0.7260                                                                                                              Long-term support: 0.6830-0.6850     The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment May 31, 2022 55134 9179 27903 -18724 -4145 -1570 -2167 597 Weak bullish May 24, 2022 59279 10749 30070 -19321 -1525 -4249 -2695 -1554 Bearish May 17, 2022 60804 14998 32765 -17767 4569 -205 4566 -4771 Bearish May 10, 2022 56235 15203 28199 -12996 5391 -2224 4162 -6386 Bearish May 03, 2022 50844 17427 24037 -6610 4334 -4658 2018 -6676 Bearish Apr 26, 2022 46510 22085 22019 66 5412 3004 3303 -299 Weak bullish         Total change 14036 -9902 9187 -19089     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZD/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached -18,724 contracts last week, having grown by 597 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 1,570 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 2,167 contracts. This data suggests that there has been a weakening of bearish sentiment on the New Zealand Dollar over the past week as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, but there has also been an increase in total net positions. The open interest fell by 4,145 contracts last week.  The move in NZD/USD that occurred last week was not supported by the volume and therefore the move was weak. The NZD/USD has reached the resistance band at 0.6570 and also the EMA 50 moving average on the daily chart, which is a strong confluence and there has already been some bearish reaction there. If this resistance is broken, further strengthening could occur.  Long-term resistance: 0.6540 – 0.6560 Long-term support: 0.6220 – 0.6280     Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
COT Week 23 Charts: Forex Speculators Positions mostly higher led by Canadian dollar & Swiss franc

COT Week 23 Charts: Forex Speculators Positions mostly higher led by Canadian dollar & Swiss franc

Invest Macro Invest Macro 12.06.2022 17:16
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. COT Currencies market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for currency markets was the Canadian dollar (5,945 contracts) and the Swiss franc (4,326 contracts) with the British pound sterling (3,295 contracts), Japanese yen (2,793 contracts), Brazil real (1,389 contracts), Australian dollar (786 contracts), US Dollar Index (400 contracts) and Bitcoin (87 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Mexican peso (-2,723 contracts) and Euro (-1,729 contracts) with New Zealand dollar (-1,047 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. Currency Speculators Notes: US Dollar Index speculator bets have continued their upward climb in four out of the past five weeks as well as nine out of the past twelve weeks. USD Index remains in an extreme-bullish strength level and is very close (currently +37,938 contracts) to the highest net speculator position (+39,078 contracts on January 4th) of this recent bullish cycle, emphasizing the strong speculator bias. The Euro speculator position saw a pullback this week (-1,729 contracts) after huge gains in the previous three weeks (+58,650 contracts). Speculator sentiment is still pretty strong currently (+50,543 contracts) despite a very weak exchange rate (EURUSD at 1.0524 to close the week) and weak outlook for the Eurozone economy with rising inflation. British pound sterling speculator sentiment has crumbled in the past few months. The net speculator position managed to poke its head above its negative bias on February 15th with a total of +2,237 net contracts but sentiment has deteriorated since. From February 22nd to this week, speculator bets have dropped by a total of -73,047 contracts and recently hit a 139-week low on May 24th, the lowest level of speculator sentiment dating back to September of 2019. Japanese yen speculator positions are the most bearish of the major currencies just under -100,000 contracts. The USDJPY exchange rate is at a 20-year high and there has been no sign that the BOJ is interest in raising interest rates while other central banks commit to higher rates. These factors seem to say that the rout of the yen will continue ahead for some time (but how far can it go?). Commodity currency speculator bets are on the defensive lately. Australian dollar spec bets have fallen in five out of the past six weeks. Canadian dollar bets are now in bearish territory for a 5th straight week. New Zealand dollar speculator positions have declined in six out of the past seven weeks and the net position has now fallen to the lowest level since March of 2020 Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Brazilian Real, US Dollar Index and Bitcoin are all in extreme-bullish levels at the current moment. On the opposite end of the extreme spectrum, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc are very weak in relative speculator sentiment and sit in the extreme-bearish levels. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the commodity currencies have been losing sentiment over the last six weeks. The Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the New Zealand dollar have all had changes of at least -18.8 percent in their strength scores with the New Zealand dollar leading the decline with a -33.3 percent drop in six weeks. The US Dollar Index, Euro and Mexican Peso have had small but rising scores over the past six weeks. Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-07-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 65,163 100 37,938 91 -41,863 5 3,925 59 EUR 730,667 95 50,543 51 -88,189 51 37,646 37 GBP 258,623 76 -70,810 23 80,465 77 -9,655 36 JPY 266,054 100 -91,646 12 109,109 89 -17,463 18 CHF 49,794 41 -16,132 16 27,216 87 -11,084 20 CAD 167,373 42 -1,062 40 -13,401 58 14,463 59 AUD 166,422 57 -47,896 40 47,413 54 483 54 NZD 63,540 70 -19,771 38 22,681 65 -2,910 19 MXN 248,184 72 32,726 41 -38,117 57 5,391 66 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 72,371 70 46,705 96 -48,954 4 2,249 91 Bitcoin 10,990 58 490 93 -529 0 39 14   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 37,938 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 400 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,538 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 85.1 3.2 8.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.9 67.5 2.8 – Net Position: 37,938 -41,863 3,925 – Gross Longs: 55,460 2,090 5,780 – Gross Shorts: 17,522 43,953 1,855 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.2 to 1 0.0 to 1 3.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.2 5.0 59.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.0 -8.8 13.4   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 50,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,729 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,272 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.5 50.0 12.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.6 62.1 7.3 – Net Position: 50,543 -88,189 37,646 – Gross Longs: 230,248 365,628 90,978 – Gross Shorts: 179,705 453,817 53,332 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.5 51.0 36.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.7 -11.9 22.7   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -70,810 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,295 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,105 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.4 74.1 8.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.8 43.0 12.1 – Net Position: -70,810 80,465 -9,655 – Gross Longs: 34,618 191,742 21,602 – Gross Shorts: 105,428 111,277 31,257 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 23.0 77.3 35.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.9 -4.4 17.9   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -91,646 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,793 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -94,439 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.9 79.3 8.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.4 38.3 15.3 – Net Position: -91,646 109,109 -17,463 – Gross Longs: 18,466 210,889 23,226 – Gross Shorts: 110,112 101,780 40,689 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 12.4 88.9 18.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.4 -2.8 3.9   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -16,132 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,326 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,458 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.0 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.2 69.3 18.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.6 14.6 41.1 – Net Position: -16,132 27,216 -11,084 – Gross Longs: 2,609 34,494 9,378 – Gross Shorts: 18,741 7,278 20,462 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 4.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 15.6 86.9 20.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.3 2.4 6.0   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,062 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,945 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,007 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.5 44.2 22.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.1 52.2 13.7 – Net Position: -1,062 -13,401 14,463 – Gross Longs: 39,288 74,044 37,463 – Gross Shorts: 40,350 87,445 23,000 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 40.2 57.6 58.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -23.8 14.2 9.7   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -47,896 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 786 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,682 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 19.1 59.9 14.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 47.8 31.4 14.2 – Net Position: -47,896 47,413 483 – Gross Longs: 31,720 99,747 24,197 – Gross Shorts: 79,616 52,334 23,714 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 40.4 54.3 53.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.8 13.8 4.3   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -19,771 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,047 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,724 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 19.4 69.1 4.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.5 33.4 8.6 – Net Position: -19,771 22,681 -2,910 – Gross Longs: 12,310 43,890 2,538 – Gross Shorts: 32,081 21,209 5,448 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.1 65.4 18.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -33.3 31.2 -4.3   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 32,726 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,723 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,449 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 48.0 35.4 3.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 34.8 50.8 1.2 – Net Position: 32,726 -38,117 5,391 – Gross Longs: 119,162 87,884 8,441 – Gross Shorts: 86,436 126,001 3,050 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 41.3 56.9 65.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.4 -6.1 8.3   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 46,705 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,389 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,316 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 81.1 13.5 5.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.5 81.2 2.3 – Net Position: 46,705 -48,954 2,249 – Gross Longs: 58,657 9,780 3,931 – Gross Shorts: 11,952 58,734 1,682 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.9 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 96.3 3.5 91.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.2 -0.2 4.4   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 87 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 403 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 81.5 1.5 9.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 77.1 6.4 9.3 – Net Position: 490 -529 39 – Gross Longs: 8,959 169 1,063 – Gross Shorts: 8,469 698 1,024 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 93.2 21.6 13.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.5 -6.4 0.6   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 7/6/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 7/6/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 17.06.2022 10:30
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 7/6/2022 Total net speculator positions on the USD index rose by 400 contracts last week to 37,938 contracts. This change is the result of a 600-contract increase in long positions and a 200-contract increase in short positions. On the euro, there was a decrease in total net positions after a significant previous increase. A reduction in total net positions also occurred on the New Zealand dollar last week. Increases in total net positions occurred last week on the British pound, the Australian dollar, the Japanese yen, the Canadian dollar, and the Swiss franc. The markets experienced high volatility last week, triggered by concerns that the economy was tightening more rapidly on the back of rising inflation. As a result, equity indices have continued to fall and this risk-off sentiment has led to a strengthening of the US dollar and a weakening of more or less all currencies tracked. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Jun 7, 2022    37938 50543 -70810 -47896 -19771 -91646 -1062 -16132 May 31, 2022 37538 52272 -74105 -48682 -18724 -94439 -7007 -20458 May 24, 2022 38039 38930 -80372 -45446 -19321 -99444 -12687 -19673 May 17, 2022 36213 20339 -79241 -44642 -17767 -102309 -14496 -16592 May 10, 2022 34776 16529 -79598 -41714 -12996 -110454 -5407 -15763 May 03, 2022 33071 -6378 -73813 -28516 -6610 -100794 9029 -13907   Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com   The Euro   DatE Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions Change Open Interest Change Long Change Short Change Net Positions Sentiment Jun 07, 2022 730667 230248 179705 50543 24350 -6305 -4576 -1729 Weak bullish May 31, 2022 706317 236553 184281 52272 -2621 -519 -13861 13342 Bullish May 24, 2022 708938 237072 198142 38930 2226 6302 -12289 18591 Bullish May 17, 2022 706712 230770 210431 20339 1666 2540 -1270 3810 Bullish May 10, 2022 705046 228230 211701 16529 10120 19781 -3126 22907 Bullish May 03, 2022 694926 208449 214827 -6378 6477 -14544 14035 -28579 Bearish         Total Change 42218 7255 -21087 28342     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EUR/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached 50 543 contracts last week, down by 1 729 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 6,305 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 4,576 contracts. This data suggests weak bullish sentiment as total net positions are positive but at the same time there has been a decline. Open interest rose by 24,350 contracts in the last week. This shows that the downward movement that occurred in the euro last week was supported by volume and it was therefore a strong price action. The price bounced off resistance at the EMA 50 moving average and is approaching horizontal support which is in the band at 1.0400. The weakening euro is a result of the ECB's approach to inflation. The ECB announced to raise the rate by 0.25% from July, which is significantly less than the interest rate increase implemented by the US Fed.  Long-term resistance: 1.0620 – 1.0650. The next resistance is at 1.0770-1.0780. Support: 1.0340 – 1.0420 The British pound DatE Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions Change Open Interest Change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Jun 7, 2022 258623 34618 105428 -70810 5742 3830 535 3295 Weak bullish May 31, 2022 252881 30788 104893 -74105 -983 4852 -1415 6267 Weak bearish May 24, 2022 253864 25936 106308 -80372 53 -677 454 -1131 Bearish May 17, 2022 253811 26613 105854 -79241 -10783 -2856 -3213 357 Weak bearish May 10 2022 264594 29469 109067 -79598 -3902 -4067 1718 -5785 Bearish May 03, 2022 268496 33536 107349 -73813 -4296 -6900 -2708 -4192 Bearish         Total Change -14169 -5818 -4629 -1189     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBP/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week reached - 70,810 contracts, having increased by 3,295 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth in long positions by 3,830 contracts and the growth in short positions by 535 contracts. This suggests weak bearish sentiment as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, but at the same time there has been an increase in them. Open interest rose by 5742 contracts last week, indicating that the downward movement in the pound that occurred last week was supported by volume and it was therefore a strong price action. The pound is weakening strongly in the current risk off sentiment and has reached its long term support. Long-term resistance: 1.2440 – 1.2476.    Support: 1.2160 – 1.2200   The Australian dollar   DatE Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions Change Open Interest Change Long Change Short Change Net Positions Sentiment Jun 7, 2022 166422 31720 79616 -47896 12761 -1177 -1963 786 Weak bearish May 31, 2022 153661 32897 81579 -48682 -4954 -3682 -446 -3236 Bearish May 24, 2022 158615 36579 82025 -45446 -5194 -4894 -4090 -804 Bearish May 17, 2022 163809 41473 86115 -44642 10600 4604 7532 -2928 Bearish May 10, 2022 153209 36869 78583 -41714 952 -10126 3072 13198 Bearish May 03, 2022 152257 46995 75511 -28516 5167 -110 755 -865 Bearish         Total Change 19332 -15385 4860 -20245     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUD/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached 47,896 contracts last week, up by 786 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 1,177 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 1,963 contracts. This data suggests weak bearish sentiment on the Australian dollar, as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, but at the same time there was an increase in them in the previous week. There was an increase in open interest of 12,761 contracts last week. This means that the downward movement that occurred last week on the AUD was supported by volume and it was therefore a strong price action. The Australian dollar is weakening sharply even though the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 0.50% last week. The reason for this bearish decline is the current risk-off sentiment which is particularly threatening commodity currencies, which includes the Australian dollar. Long-term resistance: 0.7250-0.7260                                                                                                              Long-term support: 0.6830-0.6850  (the support zone begins at 0.6930 according to a weekly chart).   The New Zealand dollar   DatE Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions Change Open Interest Change Long Change Short Change Net Positions Sentiment Jun 7, 2022 63540 12310 32081 -19771 8406 3131 4178 -1047 Bearish May 31, 2022 55134 9179 27903 -18724 -4145 -1570 -2167 597 Weak bearish May 24, 2022 59279 10749 30070 -19321 -1525 -4249 -2695 -1554 Bearish May 17, 2022 60804 14998 32765 -17767 4569 -205 4566 -4771 Bearish May 10, 2022 56235 15203 28199 -12996 5391 -2224 4162 -6386 Bearish May 03, 2022 50844 17427 24037 -6610 4334 -4658 2018 -6676 Bearish         Total Change 17030 -9775 10062 -19837     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZD/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week amounted to -19,771 contracts, down by 1,047 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 3,131 contracts and an increase in short positions by 4,178 contracts. This data suggests that there has been bearish sentiment on the New Zealand Dollar over the past week as the total net positions of large speculators have been negative and there was further decline in them as well. Open interest rose by 8,406 contracts last week. The downward move in NZD/USD that occurred last week was supported by volume and therefore the move was strong. The NZD/USD bounced off the resistance band at 0.6570 and approached significant support. The decline in the New Zealand Dollar is mainly due to risk off sentiment in equity markets. Long-term resistance: 0.6540 – 0.6570 Long-term support: 0.6220 – 0.6280   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
Currency Speculators boost US Dollar Index bets to 5-year high while Euro bets dip into bearish level

Currency Speculators boost US Dollar Index bets to 5-year high while Euro bets dip into bearish level

Invest Macro Invest Macro 18.06.2022 20:13
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. There were many really large moves this week in the COT positioning as the data was recorded on Tuesday – just one day ahead of the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 75 basis point increase in the US benchmark Fed Funds rate. Currency market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets (Russian ruble futures positions have not been updated by the CFTC since March) we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for currency market positions was the Canadian dollar (24,264 contracts) and the Japanese yen (21,891 contracts) with the New Zealand dollar (12,933 contracts), Swiss franc (9,324 contracts), US Dollar Index (6,538 contracts), British pound sterling (5,214 contracts), Australian dollar (4,642 contracts), Bitcoin (571 contracts) and Brazil real (508 contracts) also showing positive weeks. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets were the Mexican peso (-59,107 contracts) and the Euro (-56,561 contracts) this week. Currency Speculators Notes: US Dollar Index speculators raised their bullish bets for a second straight week this week and for the seventh time in the past ten weeks. These increases pushed the large speculator standing (+44,476 contracts) to the highest level in the past two hundred and seventy-three weeks, dating back more than five years to March 21st of 2017. The most bullish level ever was +81,270 contracts on March 10th of 2015. The US dollar strength keeps rolling along and the overall standing has now remained bullish for the past fifty consecutive weeks, dating back to July of 2021. The US Dollar Index price has continued its strength as well and reached a high this week of over 105.75 which is the best level for the DXY since back in December of 2002. Euro speculators sharply dropped their positions this week by the most on record with a huge decline of -56,561 contracts. This record decline beat out the previous high of -52,107 contracts that took place on June 19th of 2018. Euro bets had been gaining over the past month and were at a total of +50,543 contracts before this week’s sharp turnaround which has now tipped the overall spec positioning into bearish territory for the first time since January. Japanese yen speculator bets surged this week (+21,891 contracts) and gained for the fifth straight week. Yen speculator positions have been in bearish territory for over a year and have been extremely week since many central banks around the world started raising their interest rates. The Bank of Japan has not raised rates and has signaled that it will not do so, creating large interest rate differentials compared to the other major currencies. Despite the spec bets increase this week, the yen exchange rate came under further pressure this week with the USDJPY price closing over the 135.00 exchange rate (and remaining near 20-year highs). Mexican Peso speculator bets fell sharply by -59,381 contracts this week and flipped the MXN speculator positioning from bullish to bearish. The weekly speculator decline is the largest fall in the past thirteen weeks and the decrease into a bearish standing is the first time since March 29th. Canadian dollar bets jumped this week by the most in the past seventy-seven weeks and brought the speculator position back into bullish territory for the first time in six weeks. CAD speculator bets have now gained for four straight weeks and the overall spec standing is residing at the highest level since July 2021. New Zealand dollar speculators also boosted their bets this week after the NZD positions had dropped in six out of the previous seven weeks. This week’s rise in weekly bets was the most in the past thirteen weeks but the overall speculator standing remains in bearish territory for the seventh straight week. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Dollar Index (100 percent), Bitcoin (100 percent) and the Brazilian Real (96.8 percent) are leading the strength scores and are all in extreme bullish positions. On the downside, the Mexican peso (16.1 percent) has fallen into extreme bearish positioning followed by the Japanese yen (25.9 percent) and British pound (26.7 percent) which are just above the 20 percent extreme bearish threshold. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the US Dollar Index (19.5 percent), Japanese yen (19.1 percent) and Swiss franc (18 percent) have the highest six-week trend scores currently. The Mexican peso also leads the trends on the downside with a -17.5 percent trend change. Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-14-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 61,144 91 44,476 100 -47,736 0 3,260 52 EUR 668,164 69 -6,018 33 -28,495 68 34,513 32 GBP 238,322 63 -65,596 27 81,063 78 -15,467 24 JPY 232,513 77 -69,755 26 86,443 78 -16,688 20 CHF 39,362 20 -6,808 39 18,147 72 -11,339 19 CAD 175,219 47 23,202 65 -30,284 43 7,082 44 AUD 142,857 39 -43,254 45 44,710 52 -1,456 49 NZD 45,410 35 -6,838 60 9,773 45 -2,935 18 MXN 197,375 48 -26,381 16 23,148 82 3,233 57 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 69,931 67 47,213 97 -48,458 4 1,245 79 Bitcoin 12,242 68 1,061 100 -947 0 -114 10   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 44,476 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,538 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,938 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 86.9 2.9 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.2 80.9 3.8 – Net Position: 44,476 -47,736 3,260 – Gross Longs: 53,133 1,752 5,553 – Gross Shorts: 8,657 49,488 2,293 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.1 to 1 0.0 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 52.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 19.2 -19.1 7.1   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -6,018 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -56,561 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,543 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.0 54.1 12.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.9 58.3 7.5 – Net Position: -6,018 -28,495 34,513 – Gross Longs: 206,986 361,159 84,823 – Gross Shorts: 213,004 389,654 50,310 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.2 67.9 31.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.1 -1.1 5.9   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -65,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,214 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -70,810 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.3 77.2 8.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.8 43.2 15.1 – Net Position: -65,596 81,063 -15,467 – Gross Longs: 29,343 184,011 20,625 – Gross Shorts: 94,939 102,948 36,092 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.7 77.6 23.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.9 -4.7 -0.5   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -69,755 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 21,891 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -91,646 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.0 75.6 9.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 44.0 38.4 16.8 – Net Position: -69,755 86,443 -16,688 – Gross Longs: 32,441 175,789 22,340 – Gross Shorts: 102,196 89,346 39,028 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 25.9 77.8 19.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 19.1 -16.5 5.7   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -6,808 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,324 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,132 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.9 66.2 22.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.2 20.1 51.7 – Net Position: -6,808 18,147 -11,339 – Gross Longs: 4,291 26,045 9,026 – Gross Shorts: 11,099 7,898 20,365 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 3.3 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.2 72.4 19.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 18.0 -19.8 17.9   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 23,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 24,264 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,062 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.3 45.1 16.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.0 62.4 12.7 – Net Position: 23,202 -30,284 7,082 – Gross Longs: 56,550 79,064 29,357 – Gross Shorts: 33,348 109,348 22,275 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.4 43.5 44.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.9 -14.4 6.3   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -43,254 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,642 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,896 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.2 59.9 14.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.4 28.6 16.0 – Net Position: -43,254 44,710 -1,456 – Gross Longs: 31,660 85,591 21,342 – Gross Shorts: 74,914 40,881 22,798 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.7 52.2 48.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.7 7.8 10.4   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -6,838 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,933 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,771 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.8 61.8 4.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 47.9 40.3 11.4 – Net Position: -6,838 9,773 -2,935 – Gross Longs: 14,894 28,062 2,236 – Gross Shorts: 21,732 18,289 5,171 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.8 45.5 18.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.4 -0.2 3.8   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -26,381 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -59,107 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,726 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 57.8 38.3 3.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 71.2 26.5 1.5 – Net Position: -26,381 23,148 3,233 – Gross Longs: 114,093 75,532 6,170 – Gross Shorts: 140,474 52,384 2,937 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.4 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.1 82.5 56.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.5 17.4 -2.9   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 47,213 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 508 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,705 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 83.0 12.5 4.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.5 81.8 2.8 – Net Position: 47,213 -48,458 1,245 – Gross Longs: 58,023 8,711 3,197 – Gross Shorts: 10,810 57,169 1,952 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.4 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 96.8 4.0 79.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.3 -5.0 -4.0   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,061 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 490 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 81.7 0.5 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 73.0 8.2 9.2 – Net Position: 1,061 -947 -114 – Gross Longs: 9,996 62 1,008 – Gross Shorts: 8,935 1,009 1,122 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 10.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.3 -30.9 -3.5   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
The Swing Overview – Week 24 2022

The Swing Overview – Week 24 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 17.06.2022 16:54
The Swing Overview - Week 24 We've had a week in which the world's major stock indices took a bloodbath in response to rising inflation, which is advancing faster than expected. Central banks have played a major part in this drama. As expected, the US, the UK and, surprisingly, Switzerland raised interest rates. Japan, on the other hand, is still one of the few countries that decided to keep interest rates at their original level of - 0.10%. Macroeconomic data The 0.75% interest rate hike to 1.75%, which was 0.25% higher than the Fed announced at the last meeting, might not have come as a surprise to the markets given that inflation for May was 8.6% on year-on-year basis (8.3% for April). The market reacted strongly in response to the inflation data, and a sell-off in equity indices and a strengthening US dollar followed.   The 0.75% rate hike is the highest since 1994 and the next Fed meeting is expected to see another rate hike again in the range of 0.50% to 0.75%. The Fed is trying to stop rising inflation with this aggressive approach. The problem is that economic projections point to slowing economic growth. Retail data for May fell by 0.3%, which was a surprise to the markets. This is the first drop in consumer spending in 2022. The Fed also lowered GDP growth projections and unemployment is expected to rise as well. All of this points to the risk of stagflation.     But the labour market data is still good. The number of initial claims in unemployment reached 229k last week, down from 232k the previous week. The US dollar hit a new high for the year at 105.86 in response to high inflation and a faster tightening economy. The US 10-year bond yields also rose, reaching 3.479%. Figure 1: The US 10-year bond yields and the USD index on the daily chart   The SP 500 Index The SP 500 index, like other global indices, was in a bloodbath last week as data on rising US inflation in particular surprised. Major supports according to the H4 chart were very quickly broken and the market is showing that it is still in a bearish mood. According to the daily chart, another lower low has formed which together with the lower highs confirms this bearish trend.   Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   A support according to the H4 chart is in the 3,645 - 3,675 range. The nearest resistance is at 3,820 - 3,835. A broken support in the 3,710 - 3,732 area can also be considered as resistance. The most important news is behind us and the market could take a breath for a while. The low levels could also be noticed by long-term investors who will be buying dip. But for speculators, it is very risky to speculate on a market reversal in a downtrend.   German DAX index The German DAX index offers a very similar picture to the SP 500. The ZEW economic sentiment indicator in Germany for the month of June showed a deterioration in sentiment among institutional investors and analysts, with the index reading coming in at -28.0. The ongoing war in Ukraine is undoubtedly influencing this pessimism. The end of this tragic event is still not in sight. What is clear, however, is that the longer the conflict continues, the stronger the impact on the European economy will be.    Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The DAX is in a clear downtrend and broke through significant support at 13,300 last week. The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is 13,250 - 13,300. Significant resistance is at 13,650 - 13,700. A new support according to the H4 chart is at 12,950 - 12,980.   The euro has rejected lower readings  Information about higher inflation in the US and a rate hike sent the EUR/USD pair to support levels at 1.0370. However, the level was not broken and the euro then took a strong move from this area. Investors seem to assume that the ECB will have to respond with a higher than 0.25% rate hike announced at the last meeting. Figure 4: The EUR/USD on H4 and daily chart According to the H4 chart, the nearest resistance is at 1.0560 - 1.0600. The next resistance is then at 1.0760-1.0770. Current support is at 1.0340 - 1.0370 according to the daily chart.   The Bank of England raised rates as expected Rising inflation did not leave the Bank of England in dovish mood as it raised its key rate by 0.25% as expected. The current rate is 1.25%. Inflation may be approaching double digits, but the bank could not afford to be more aggressive. In Britain, economic activity has already fallen and the GDP is falling at its fastest pace in a year. On a month-on-month basis, the GDP in Britain fell by 0.3%.  Manufacturing production fell by 1% in April. Figure 5: The GBP/USD on H4 and daily chart The GBP/USD currency pair had a very dramatic week, first breaking below 1.20, only to stage an unprecedented rally later. Anyway, according to the H4 chart and also the daily chart, the pound is below the SMA 100 moving average, which indicates a bearish sentiment. There are also clear lower lows and lower highs on the daily chart, confirming the downtrend.   The UK interest rate hike did send the GBP/USD currency pair to 1.24, but the price did not stay there for long time as the pound descended from higher values, underlining the overall downtrend. The nearest resistance is at 1.24. A support is then at 1.1930 - 1.2000.   Central Bank of Japan still dovish   In the early hours of Friday morning, the Bank of Japan was also deciding on rates. There, as expected, everything remains as it was, i.e. the rate remains negative at - 0.10%. This situation means a favourable interest rate differential between the US dollar and the Japanese yen in favour of the dollar. It is therefore no surprise that the USD/JPY pair has reached its highest level since 2002. However, the weak yen is a big problem for the Japanese economy, as it makes imports of basic manufacturing raw materials more expensive and thus contributes to inflation. Figure 6: The USD/JPY on H4 and monthly charts The USD/JPY pair has reached the resistance level at 134.5 - 135.0, the highest level since 2002. A support according to the H4 chart is at 131.50 - 131.80.  
Currency Speculators boost Japanese Yen bets to 15-week high while Canadian dollar bets drop sharply

Currency Speculators boost Japanese Yen bets to 15-week high while Canadian dollar bets drop sharply

Invest Macro Invest Macro 26.06.2022 13:28
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Currency market speculator bets overall were mixed this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover (Note: Russian Ruble positions have not been updated by CFTC since March) had higher positioning this week while six markets had lower contracts for the week. Leading the gains for currency markets was the Japanese yen (11,301 contracts) and the British pound sterling (2,349 contracts) with the Australian dollar (2,648 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,415 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (534 contracts) also showing positive changes on the week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Canadian dollar (-19,097 contracts) and the Euro (-9,587 contracts) with the Brazil real (-2,868 contracts), Mexican peso (-489 contracts), Swiss franc (-349 contracts) and Bitcoin (-15 contracts) also showing lower speculator positions through June 21st. Currency Position Notables: Japanese Yen large speculator bets rose for the 6th straight week this week and this improvement has brought the overall speculator standing to the least bearish level of the past 15 weeks at -58,454 contracts. Speculators have trimmed a total of 52,000 contracts off of the total bearish position in these past six weeks after the standing hit -110,454 contracts on May 10th. Yen bets have been in bearish territory since March 13th of 2021 (67 weeks running) with the highest bearish level of the cycle occurring on April 12th at a total of -111,827 contracts. Canadian dollar bets dropped sharply by -19,097 contracts this week and fell for the first time in the last five weeks. CAD speculator bets had risen over the previous four weeks by a total of +37,698 contracts. The decline this week brings the CAD speculator position into a virtual neutral level at an overall bullish position of just +4,105 contracts as the speculator position has yet to find a sustainable trend and has been alternating between bearish and bullish net positions over the past few months. The US Dollar Index rose for a 3rd straight week this week and hit a new 5-year high level at +45,010 contracts. This is the first time the overall position has topped +45,000 contracts since March 21st of 2017 and the continued bullish sentiment for the DXY has pushed the US Dollar Index strength score (3-year range) to the very top of its range (100 percent – extreme bullish). Euro positions fell for the third straight week and dropped to its most bearish level of the past 29 weeks. The strength score for the Euro has dropped to just a 30.2 percent and it seems the speculator positioning is catching up to the bearishness of the EURUSD exchange rate. The speculator net position had been at a twelve-week high on May 31st at a total of +52,272 contracts before dropping over the past three weeks to settle at -15,605 contracts this week. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, ranging from 0 to 100 where above 80 percent is extreme bullish, below 20 percent is extreme bearish and 100 percent is the top of the range) show that the US Dollar Index (100 percent), Bitcoin (99.7 percent) and the Brazilian Real (94 percent) are all in extreme bullish positions. On the bearish side, the Mexican Peso is the only currency currently in an extreme bearish position with a score of 15.9 percent. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the Japanese Yen (32.0 percent) and the Swiss Franc (21.8 percent) are leading the strength trends over the past six weeks. Both of these markets have overall bearish net positions but have seen the bearish sentiment cooling off strongly. The Mexican Peso leads the downside trends for another week with a -18.6 percent score. Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-21-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 58,543 86 45,010 100 -46,746 2 1,736 36 EUR 671,718 70 -15,605 30 -18,182 71 33,787 30 GBP 228,266 57 -63,247 28 77,902 76 -14,655 25 JPY 218,076 67 -58,454 33 74,349 72 -15,895 21 CHF 37,669 16 -7,157 38 14,958 67 -7,801 31 CAD 140,047 23 4,105 44 -6,578 63 2,473 35 AUD 137,017 35 -40,606 47 44,608 52 -4,002 43 NZD 42,889 30 -5,423 62 8,756 44 -3,333 13 MXN 191,265 45 -26,870 16 22,977 82 3,893 60 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 68,858 65 44,345 94 -45,996 6 1,651 84 Bitcoin 13,537 77 1,046 100 -995 0 -51 12   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 45,010 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 534 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,476 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 88.2 2.9 7.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.3 82.7 4.8 – Net Position: 45,010 -46,746 1,736 – Gross Longs: 51,606 1,676 4,522 – Gross Shorts: 6,596 48,422 2,786 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.8 to 1 0.0 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 1.6 35.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 17.1 -15.2 -7.2   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -15,605 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,587 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,018 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.1 55.6 12.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.4 58.3 7.7 – Net Position: -15,605 -18,182 33,787 – Gross Longs: 195,554 373,695 85,208 – Gross Shorts: 211,159 391,877 51,421 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 30.2 70.9 30.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.9 7.0 12.1   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -63,247 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,596 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.5 77.6 7.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.2 43.5 14.2 – Net Position: -63,247 77,902 -14,655 – Gross Longs: 28,470 177,170 17,735 – Gross Shorts: 91,717 99,268 32,390 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.4 75.8 25.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.8 -10.3 2.1   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -58,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,301 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,755 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.4 71.6 10.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 43.3 37.6 17.9 – Net Position: -58,454 74,349 -15,895 – Gross Longs: 35,864 156,248 23,099 – Gross Shorts: 94,318 81,899 38,994 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 32.9 71.9 21.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 32.0 -24.7 -2.9   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -7,157 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,808 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.1 66.2 25.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.1 26.5 46.4 – Net Position: -7,157 14,958 -7,801 – Gross Longs: 3,068 24,927 9,673 – Gross Shorts: 10,225 9,969 17,474 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.4 67.3 31.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.8 -23.7 21.2   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 4,105 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -19,097 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,202 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.2 47.9 20.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.2 52.6 18.9 – Net Position: 4,105 -6,578 2,473 – Gross Longs: 42,260 67,084 29,011 – Gross Shorts: 38,155 73,662 26,538 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.0 63.2 35.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.7 -7.9 0.0   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -40,606 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,648 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,254 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.2 60.2 13.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.8 27.7 16.6 – Net Position: -40,606 44,608 -4,002 – Gross Longs: 31,745 82,514 18,756 – Gross Shorts: 72,351 37,906 22,758 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.2 52.2 42.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.0 -1.9 3.4   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -5,423 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,415 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,838 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.2 60.8 5.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.8 40.3 12.8 – Net Position: -5,423 8,756 -3,333 – Gross Longs: 14,652 26,056 2,145 – Gross Shorts: 20,075 17,300 5,478 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 62.2 43.9 13.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.7 -12.5 6.3   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -26,870 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -489 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,381 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 50.3 45.8 3.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 64.3 33.8 1.3 – Net Position: -26,870 22,977 3,893 – Gross Longs: 96,147 87,609 6,317 – Gross Shorts: 123,017 64,632 2,424 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.4 to 1 2.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 15.9 82.4 59.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.6 18.3 -1.1   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 44,345 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,868 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,213 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.7 14.6 4.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.3 81.3 2.3 – Net Position: 44,345 -45,996 1,651 – Gross Longs: 55,599 10,020 3,238 – Gross Shorts: 11,254 56,016 1,587 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.9 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.0 6.4 84.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 3.5 -3.9 4.7     Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 1,046 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,061 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.5 0.6 7.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 69.8 7.9 8.1 – Net Position: 1,046 -995 -51 – Gross Longs: 10,495 78 1,048 – Gross Shorts: 9,449 1,073 1,099 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.1 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 99.7 0.0 11.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.3 -11.9 -3.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Currency Speculators reduced their British Pound and Japanese Yen bearish bets to multi-week lows

Currency Speculators reduced their British Pound and Japanese Yen bearish bets to multi-week lows

Invest Macro Invest Macro 02.07.2022 20:24
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Currency market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while four markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for currency markets was the Mexican peso (12,890 contracts) and the British pound sterling (10,129 contracts) with the Japanese yen (5,884 contracts), Euro (5,009 contracts), Canadian dollar (4,992 contracts), New Zealand dollar (112 contracts) and Bitcoin (39 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Brazilian real (-7,317 contracts) and the Australian dollar (-2,374 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (-1,781 contracts) and the Swiss franc (-1,434 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. Highlighting the currency contracts this week was the cool off in bearish bets for both the British pound and the Japanese yen. British pound sterling speculator positions rose for the fifth straight week and this week’s improvement pushed the overall position to the least bearish standing of the past eleven weeks. The GBP speculative standing has been in a continual bearish position since the middle of February but has come down from a total of -80,372 contracts on May 24th to a total of -53,118 contracts this week after the past five week’s improvement (by 27,254 contracts). The GBPUSD exchange rate has remained in a downtrend despite the recent cool off in speculator sentiment and touched below the 1.20 exchange this week for the second time this month. Japanese yen speculator bets rose for the seventh straight week this week and reached the least bearish position of the past 27 weeks. Japanese yen bets have been sharply bearish for over a year were at -110,454 contracts as recently as May 10th. The past seven weeks have shaved 57,884 contracts off the bearish level and brought the current speculative position to a total of -52,570 contracts this week. The exchange rate for the USDJPY currency pair remains at the top of its range (yen weakness) and near 20-year highs around 135.00. In other currency contracts, the US Dollar Index speculator positions slid a bit this week after rising for six out of the previous seven weeks. The Dollar Index spec position had hit a new 5-year high last week at over +45,000 contracts and was at a 100 percent strength score (measured against past 3-years spec positioning). This week’s decline doesn’t dent the overall position much as the net position remains over +43,000 contracts for the third straight week. The Dollar Index futures price has remained strongly in an uptrend and reached a high over 105 this week before closing just below that figure at 104.91.   Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bitcoin (100 percent), the US Dollar Index (97 percent) and the Brazilian real (87 percent) are currently near the top of their ranges and in bullish extreme levels. The Mexican peso at 21 percent is at the lowest strength level currently and followed by the Euro at 32 percent. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the Japanese yen (31 percent) is on the greatest move of the past six weeks. The Canadian dollar (27 percent), New Zealand dollar (21 percent) and the Swiss franc (20 percent) round out the top movers in the latest data. The Mexican peso at -18 percent leads the downtrending currencies followed by the Euro at -10 percent and the Brazilian real at -1 percent. Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-28-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 63,143 96 43,229 97 -46,558 2 3,329 53 EUR 671,472 70 -10,596 32 -19,812 70 30,408 25 GBP 228,736 57 -53,118 36 70,230 71 -17,112 20 JPY 213,767 64 -52,570 37 67,895 69 -15,325 22 CHF 40,123 21 -8,591 35 17,862 72 -9,271 26 CAD 142,584 25 9,097 50 -12,247 59 3,150 36 AUD 139,891 37 -42,980 45 47,163 54 -4,183 42 NZD 40,337 25 -5,311 62 8,551 44 -3,240 14 MXN 193,536 46 -13,980 21 9,107 77 4,873 64 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 60,107 54 37,028 87 -38,531 14 1,503 82 Bitcoin 13,707 78 1,085 100 -947 0 -138 10   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 43,229 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,781 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,010 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 86.5 3.7 8.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.1 77.4 3.2 – Net Position: 43,229 -46,558 3,329 – Gross Longs: 54,646 2,340 5,371 – Gross Shorts: 11,417 48,898 2,042 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.8 to 1 0.0 to 1 2.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 97.0 1.9 52.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.7 -11.2 0.4   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -10,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,009 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,605 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.2 56.6 12.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.8 59.6 8.0 – Net Position: -10,596 -19,812 30,408 – Gross Longs: 189,414 380,084 83,853 – Gross Shorts: 200,010 399,896 53,445 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.7 70.4 24.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.5 9.0 -1.3   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -53,118 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 10,129 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,247 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.4 74.7 7.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.6 44.0 15.4 – Net Position: -53,118 70,230 -17,112 – Gross Longs: 35,184 170,967 18,055 – Gross Shorts: 88,302 100,737 35,167 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 35.7 71.2 20.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 18.8 -14.3 -4.2   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -52,570 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,884 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,454 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.1 71.1 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.6 39.4 17.6 – Net Position: -52,570 67,895 -15,325 – Gross Longs: 36,462 152,071 22,379 – Gross Shorts: 89,032 84,176 37,704 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 36.5 68.8 22.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 30.6 -23.0 -5.2   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,591 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,434 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,157 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.3 64.8 23.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.7 20.3 47.0 – Net Position: -8,591 17,862 -9,271 – Gross Longs: 4,523 25,994 9,588 – Gross Shorts: 13,114 8,132 18,859 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 3.2 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 34.7 72.0 26.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.3 -21.2 18.0   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 9,097 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,992 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,105 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.2 45.9 20.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.8 54.5 18.5 – Net Position: 9,097 -12,247 3,150 – Gross Longs: 45,893 65,407 29,537 – Gross Shorts: 36,796 77,654 26,387 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.6 58.5 36.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 26.5 -20.7 2.5   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -42,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,374 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,606 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.6 61.7 14.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.4 28.0 17.1 – Net Position: -42,980 47,163 -4,183 – Gross Longs: 28,887 86,347 19,791 – Gross Shorts: 71,867 39,184 23,974 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.0 54.1 42.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.5 -5.4 13.7   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -5,311 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 112 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,423 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.1 64.9 5.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 42.2 43.7 13.6 – Net Position: -5,311 8,551 -3,240 – Gross Longs: 11,720 26,167 2,256 – Gross Shorts: 17,031 17,616 5,496 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 62.4 43.6 14.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.9 -19.8 4.4   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -13,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,890 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,870 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 55.3 40.9 3.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 62.5 36.1 1.1 – Net Position: -13,980 9,107 4,873 – Gross Longs: 107,031 79,060 7,059 – Gross Shorts: 121,011 69,953 2,186 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1 3.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 21.4 76.6 63.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.0 17.2 3.6   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 37,028 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,317 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,345 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 71.7 22.8 5.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 10.1 86.9 3.0 – Net Position: 37,028 -38,531 1,503 – Gross Longs: 43,088 13,691 3,307 – Gross Shorts: 6,060 52,222 1,804 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.1 to 1 0.3 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 86.8 13.7 82.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.0 0.9 1.9   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,085 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 39 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,046 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 81.3 0.8 6.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 73.3 7.7 7.5 – Net Position: 1,085 -947 -138 – Gross Longs: 11,137 115 890 – Gross Shorts: 10,052 1,062 1,028 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 2.8 9.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.1 -4.2 -4.7   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Currency Speculators drop Euro bets further into bearish territory as EURUSD nears parity

Currency Speculators drop Euro bets further into bearish territory as EURUSD nears parity

Invest Macro Invest Macro 09.07.2022 19:55
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Currency market speculator bets were lower this week as all of the eleven currency markets we cover had lower positioning on the week. Leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Brazil real (-20,695 contracts) and the Euro (-6,256 contracts) while the Canadian dollar (-4,804 contracts), Australian dollar (-4,641 contracts), US Dollar Index (-3,978 contracts), British pound sterling (-3,090 contracts), Japanese yen (-1,875 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-1,745 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,544 contracts), Bitcoin (-665 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-438 contracts) all saw lower speculator bets for the week. Highlighting the currency futures data this week was the Euro speculator position that fell deeper into bearish territory and dropped for the fourth time in the past five weeks. The speculator position has now decreased by a whopping -69,124 contracts in just the past five weeks and has brought the overall standing to the lowest level since November 30th of 2021, a span of 31 weeks. The Euro price has been strongly on the defensive against the dollar as the EURUSD currency pair this week hit the lowest level since December 0f 2002. The EURUSD fell to a low under the 1.0200 exchange rate on Friday and sets up what seems to be an inevitable test of parity which would also be the first time that has happened since December of 2002. More COT currency notes: US Dollar Index bets fell for a second straight week and dipped below +40,000 contracts for the first time in four weeks. Despite the 2-week decline, the Dollar Index speculator position remains extremely bullish which has seen increases in speculator bets in ten out of the past fifteen weeks. Overall, the Dollar Index positioning has been in bullish territory for fifty-three straight weeks after turning from bearish to bullish on July 6th of 2021. The Dollar Index price this week continued to climb (up 5 out of 6 weeks) and hit the highest level since October of 2002 at above the 107.75 level. Japanese yen speculator bets fell for the first time in the past eight weeks this week. Yen bets remain bearish but have improved strongly over the past few months going from a total of -110,454 contracts on May 10th to a total of -54,445 contracts this week. Despite, the speculator sentiment improvement, the USDJPY currency pair has remained near the top of its range (and close to 20-year highs) at around the 136.00 exchange rate. Brazilian real speculator bets dropped sharply this week by over -20,000 contracts and fell for the third straight week. These declines have brought the BRL position down to the lowest level in the past twenty-two weeks at just +16,333 contracts. The Brazil real price has been on the defensive in the past month as the BRLUSD currency pair fell to a five month low this week near the 0.1850 exchange rate and dropped under its 200-day moving average for the first time since January. Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Dollar Index (90.4 percent) and Bitcoin (87.9 percent) lead the currencies at the top of their respective ranges and are both in bullish extreme positions. The Brazilian real (66.4 percent) comes in as the next highest currency in strength scores but took a large tumble this week to fall out of a bullish extreme level. On the downside, the Mexican peso at 21.2 percent continues to be at the lowest strength level currently and is followed by the Euro at 29.8 percent and the Swiss franc at 30.8 percent. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the Japanese yen (27.7 percent) leads the past six weeks trends once again this week. The Swiss franc (24.2 percent), New Zealand dollar (20.6 percent) and the Canadian dollar (19.1 percent) round out the top movers in the latest data. The Brazilian real (-22.0 percent) saw a huge decrease in speculator positions this week and leads the downside trend scores currently. The next currencies will lower trend scores were the Mexican peso at -18.9 percent followed by the Euro at -17.1 percent. Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Jul-05-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index USD Index 60,857 91 39,251 90 -41,510 10 2,259 41 EUR 673,772 71 -16,852 30 -8,636 74 25,488 17 GBP 240,926 65 -56,208 34 77,009 75 -20,801 13 JPY 217,672 67 -54,445 35 64,063 67 -9,618 34 CHF 38,504 18 -10,135 31 20,075 75 -9,940 24 CAD 145,372 27 4,293 44 -4,533 65 240 31 AUD 146,950 42 -47,621 41 55,708 60 -8,087 33 NZD 45,403 35 -7,056 59 10,521 47 -3,465 12 MXN 197,463 48 -14,418 21 10,096 77 4,322 61 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 39,470 26 16,333 66 -17,398 34 1,065 77 Bitcoin 13,258 75 420 88 -462 0 42 14   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 39,251 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,978 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,229 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 87.0 3.3 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.5 71.5 4.5 – Net Position: 39,251 -41,510 2,259 – Gross Longs: 52,927 2,023 4,993 – Gross Shorts: 13,676 43,533 2,734 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.9 to 1 0.0 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.4 9.9 41.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.0 -1.0 -6.3   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -16,852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,256 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,596 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.3 56.1 12.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.8 57.3 8.5 – Net Position: -16,852 -8,636 25,488 – Gross Longs: 197,138 377,654 82,525 – Gross Shorts: 213,990 386,290 57,037 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 29.8 73.6 16.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.1 18.1 -13.5   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -56,208 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,090 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,118 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.4 74.2 7.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.8 42.2 16.0 – Net Position: -56,208 77,009 -20,801 – Gross Longs: 39,618 178,745 17,693 – Gross Shorts: 95,826 101,736 38,494 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.5 75.2 12.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 17.4 -11.8 -8.6   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -54,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,875 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,570 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.8 68.8 11.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 42.8 39.3 16.1 – Net Position: -54,445 64,063 -9,618 – Gross Longs: 38,660 149,702 25,452 – Gross Shorts: 93,105 85,639 35,070 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 35.3 66.9 33.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 27.7 -20.8 -4.8   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -10,135 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,544 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,591 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.4 69.2 22.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 34.7 17.1 48.2 – Net Position: -10,135 20,075 -9,940 – Gross Longs: 3,218 26,664 8,602 – Gross Shorts: 13,353 6,589 18,542 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 4.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 30.8 75.5 23.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 24.2 -18.5 7.0   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 4,293 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,804 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,097 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.2 46.7 21.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.3 49.8 20.8 – Net Position: 4,293 -4,533 240 – Gross Longs: 45,365 67,829 30,460 – Gross Shorts: 41,072 72,362 30,220 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.2 65.0 30.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 19.1 -9.6 -11.1   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -47,621 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,641 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,980 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.8 64.8 12.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.2 26.9 18.1 – Net Position: -47,621 55,708 -8,087 – Gross Longs: 27,622 95,252 18,508 – Gross Shorts: 75,243 39,544 26,595 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 40.7 60.4 32.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.0 1.8 -0.6   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,745 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,311 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.0 63.9 5.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.6 40.8 13.6 – Net Position: -7,056 10,521 -3,465 – Gross Longs: 13,634 29,029 2,689 – Gross Shorts: 20,690 18,508 6,154 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.4 46.6 11.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.6 -18.8 -1.0   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -14,418 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -438 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,980 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 54.3 41.6 3.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 61.6 36.5 1.3 – Net Position: -14,418 10,096 4,322 – Gross Longs: 107,141 82,106 6,947 – Gross Shorts: 121,559 72,010 2,625 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1 2.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 21.2 77.0 61.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.9 18.5 -1.0   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 16,333 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -20,695 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,028 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 61.5 29.8 7.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 20.1 73.9 5.1 – Net Position: 16,333 -17,398 1,065 – Gross Longs: 24,261 11,776 3,089 – Gross Shorts: 7,928 29,174 2,024 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.1 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 66.4 34.3 77.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.0 22.5 -8.5     Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 420 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -665 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,085 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.3 1.2 8.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 77.1 4.7 7.7 – Net Position: 420 -462 42 – Gross Longs: 10,642 158 1,058 – Gross Shorts: 10,222 620 1,016 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.3 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 87.9 30.9 13.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.8 20.6 1.7   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to rea