intraday movements

What events may affect market sentiment on June 7? Analysis of fundamental data for beginners. On Wednesday, there will be very few macroeconomic reports. We can mention the US balance of trade report, but I can't even remember the last time this report provoked any market reaction. Therefore, we should probably expect the market to go into a "half-holiday" state again today. Volatility could range from 50 to 70 pips for both instruments, which makes it challenging to trade.   But there's nothing we can do if there are no news and reports, the market has no reason to be active. Analysis of fundamental events: Among the fundamental events, the only notable one is the speech by European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos. As we approach the June ECB meeting, his comments may help traders understand the central bank's plans for this month. However, traders are already aware of these things.   The probability of a new quarter point rate hike is 100%, and there are simply no other options. Therefore, even if de Guindos hints at further tightening, it will not support the euro or create pressure on it. It would be different if de Guindos outlines the future prospects for the ECB rate, as there has been recent information suggesting that the June hike may be the last in the tightening cycle. But for now, it's only rumors.     General conclusions: On Wednesday, there will be hardly any significant events, so we expect low volatility and weak intraday movements. Theoretically, de Guindos' speech could turn out to be interesting, but in reality, we have witnessed a large number of speeches by ECB committee members in the last two weeks. It is unlikely that de Guindos will reveal anything fundamentally new today.     Basic trading rules: 1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal. 2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored. 3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading. 4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually. 5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel. 6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.   How to read charts: Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade. MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross. This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines. Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair.   Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.    

COT reports on the British pound show that the sentiment of commercial traders has been changing quite frequently in recent months. The red and green lines, representing the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, often intersect and, in most cases, are not far from the zero mark. According to the latest report on the British pound, the non-commercial group closed 10,000 buy contracts and 4,200 short ones. As a result, the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by 5,800 contracts in a week. Since bulls currently don't have the advantage, we believe that the pound will not be able to sustain the upward movement for long . The fundamental backdrop still does not provide a basis for long-term purchases on the pound.   The non-commercial group currently has a total of 58,800 buy contracts and 44,700 sell contracts. Since the COT reports cannot make an accurate forecast of the market's behavior right now, and the fundamentals are practically the same for both currencies, we can only assess the technical picture and economic reports. The technical analysis suggests that we can expect a strong decline, and the economic reports have also been significantly stronger in the United States for quite some time now.   On the 1H chart, GBP/USD is making every effort to correct lower, but the uptrend remains intact. We believe that the British pound doesn't have any good reason to strengthen in the long-term. Therefore, at the very least, we expect the pair to return to the level of 1.2513. However, there are currently no sell signals, so the uptrend is still intact. On Tuesday, there are few reasons for the pair to show volatile movements. We may see a flat phase, a downtrend, or an uptrend (intraday), so we need to purely rely on technical analysis. We expect the pound to consolidate below the trendline, and in that case, we can consider selling while aiming for the Senkou Span B line. A n upward movement is theoretically possible today, but we see no reason for it, so you shouldn't consider buying at the moment. As of January 2, we highlight the following important levels: 1.2215, 1.2269, 1.2349, 1.2429-1.2445, 1.2513, 1.2605-1.2620, 1.2726, 1.2786, 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987. The Senkou Span B line (1.2646) and the Kijun-sen (1.2753) lines can also be sources of signals. Don't forget to set a breakeven Stop Loss to breakeven if the price has moved in the intended direction by 20 pips. The Ichimoku indicator lines may move during the day, so this should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Today, the UK and the US will release their second estimates of business activity indices in the manufacturing sector for December. These are not significant reports so it is unlikely for traders to react to them. Description of the chart: Support and resistance levels are thick red lines near which the trend may end. They do not provide trading signals; The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, plotted to the 1H timeframe from the 4H one. They provide trading signals; Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price bounced earlier. They provide trading signals; Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns; Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the net position size for each category of traders; Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the net position size for the Non-commercial group.