interest rate decision

Summary: Elon Musk has finalized his $44 billion plan to take Twitter private. Record revenue was announced from APPL. Investors have been persuaded that the ECB may make a dovish turn. Elon Musk Closes $44bn twitter deal After months of legal fighting between the richest man in the world and the social media site, Elon Musk, he has finalized his $44 billion plan to take Twitter private, putting an end to one of the most high-profile and dramatic buyout sagas in recent memory. The billionaire businessman removed Twitter's chief executive, Parag Agrawal, and chief financial officer, Ned Segal, as soon as he assumed control on Thursday night. According to one source, Sean Edgett, Twitter's general counsel, and Vijaya Gadde, the company's head of law, policy, and safety, were also fired. Musk had first agreed to purchase Twitter for $54.20 per share in April. A few months later, he filed a lawsuit against the San Francisco-based business to cancel the agreement, claiming that the platform had misled investors and regulators about false accounts and cyber security. In an effort to pressure the billionaire to complete the transaction, the social media business retaliated and countersued, setting up a contentious court dispute and discovery process. Musk declared he was prepared to purchase the business at the agreed-upon price provided the legal action was withdrawn just weeks before the two were scheduled to square off in a Delaware court over the matter. The sale was finalized the day before, according to a regulatory filing from the New York Stock Exchange on Friday morning, and stock trading had been halted in anticipation of Twitter's delisting on November 8. In an effort to create a "super app" that combines messaging, payments, and commerce, Musk has pledged to reduce Twitter's workforce and operating expenses while fostering product innovation. Elon Musk has completed his $44 billion deal for Twitter. The company's CEO and CFO were terminated and escorted out of headquarters https://t.co/nsktVzuCtn pic.twitter.com/SBWTIzqPnx — Reuters (@Reuters) October 28, 2022 Apple (APPL) reports record earnings On Thursday, Apple (AAPL) released financial results for the fourth quarter of its fiscal year. Record revenue was announced, but important categories including the iPhone and services fell short of analyst projections. Actual revenue was $90.15 billion compared to the estimated $88.64 billion, and EPS came in at $1.29 vs the anticipated $1.26. Although the Mac sales and revenue beats are positive, the iPhone and iPad numbers may worry investors. Apple has recently taken a beating amid rumors that the company is reducing the manufacturing of the Phone 14 Plus and as it navigates a challenging week for tech in general. Like most tech companies, Apple is experiencing foreign exchange challenges brought on by a strong dollar, which is reducing overall income. A hawkish Fed, persistent inflation, and a consumer downturn that has lowered expectations for the forthcoming holiday season are all exerting pressure on tech businesses like Apple. $AAPL shares remain steady after reporting record Q4 revenue.“The Apple results were mixed, they were relatively strong enough,” @juleshyman says. “But not enough to salvage the whole tech earnings season and reassure investors.” pic.twitter.com/92fYGKeYYT — Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) October 28, 2022 ECB could be turning more Dovish Investors have been persuaded that the European Central Bank is about to make a dovish turn because of what appear to be merely minor changes in tone from Christine Lagarde and the governing council she chairs. In a post-council meeting press conference, the ECB president acknowledged that the eurozone was likely headed for a recession, which had long been assumed by the majority of economists. The markets quickly interpreted this to mean that the region's rate-setters would scale back the pace of rate increases. Following Lagarde's news conference on Thursday afternoon, interest rates on government borrowing plunged, and by day's end, the euro had fallen below parity with the dollar, wiping off some of its previous gains. Investors broadly perceived such e statements as indicating that the ECB will decrease its next rate increase to 0.5 percentage points, and they now believe that by next September, borrowing prices will be a quarter-point lower than they believed prior to the ECB's announcement of its policy. ECB convinces markets it is about to turn more dovish https://t.co/rCLmZ0WPD0 — Financial Times (@FT) October 28, 2022 Sources: finance.yahoo.com, twitter.com, ft.com

Today is full of important statistics from the USA. The first will be a report on durable goods orders, which will reflect the state of the industrial sector and consumer demand. In addition, there will be PMI reports from the European Union and the UK. RBNZ Interest Rate Decision Undoubtedly, Wednesday is a very busy day. The first important information came from Noerj Zealand. As expected, Reserved Bank Of New Zealand raised rates by 75bp. Thus, interest rates are the highest since 2008. RBNZ Interest Rate reached 4.25%. CPI data Singapore At the beginning of the day, information about the level of inflation in Singapore also appeared. CPI and Core CPI reached lower than expected levels. CPI for October will amount to 6.7% against the last reading of 7.5%. Core CPI decreased by 0.2% and reached 5.1%. This may mean that inflation is heading to decline and reach a stable 2% level. South Africa The opposite movement of inflation took place in South Africa. CPI Y/Y increased to 7.6% and Core CPI Y/Y reached 5.0% PMI data French Manufacturing PMI (Nov) rose from 47.2 to 49.1. Services PMI (Nov) fell to 49.4. German A similar situation took place in Germany. The Manufacturing PMI (Nov) rose to 46.7 and the Services PMI (Nov) fell 0.1 to 46.4. Both readings were greater than expected. EU PMI In the European Union, PMIs were higher than expected. The Services PMI (Nov) held its previous level of 48.6 against expectations of a decline to 48.0, and the Manufacturing PMI rose from 47.3. In Europe, the manufacturing PMI improved while services declined or remained flat. UK PMI In the UK, declines were expected, but the Manufacturing PMI And Services PMI remained at its previous level. The Manufacturing PMI remained at 46.2 and the Services PMI at 48.8. US PMI In the US, PMI reports will appear at 16:45 CET. The manufacturing PMI is expected to decline while the services PMI is expected to increase slightly. US Reports Ahead of Thanksgiving, the US will release a broad package of reports. Weekly reports as well as reports from the real estate sector may have an impact on the situation in this and other economies. Read more: Important US Reports Ahead, The Services And Manufacturing Projected Under 50| FXMAG.COM Speeches There will also be a lot of speeches today, especially from the Bank of England. At 11:45 CET, David Ramsden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England took the floor. His public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy. At 12:30 the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Member Pill took the floor. Dr Catherine L Mann serves as a member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England to speak at 15:45 CET. The last speeches from the islands will be at 5:30 pm CET and Huw Pill will speak again. Representatives of the German bank will also take the floor. Two speeches are scheduled for 14:30 CET, Prof. Dr. Johannes Beermann and Professor Joachim Wuermeling are set to speak. At 16:00 CET Prof. Dr. Johannes Beermann will be speak again. FOMC Meeting Minutes The minutes are arrived today. The minutes offer detailed insights regarding the FOMC's stance on monetary policy, so currency traders carefully examine them for clues regarding the outcome of future interest rate decisions. Summary: 3:00 CET RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 7:00 CET Singapore CPI (YoY) 10:00 CET South Africa CPI (MoM) (Oct) 10:15 CET French PMI (Nov) 10:30 CET German PMI 11:00 CET EU PMI 11:30 CET UK PMI 11:45 CET MPC Member Ramsden Speaks 12:30 CET BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks 14:30 CET German Buba Beermann Speaks 14:30 CET German Buba Wuermeling Speaks 15:00 CET US Building Permits 15:30 CET US Core Durable Goods Orders 15:30 CET US Initial Jobless Claims 15:45 CET BoE MPC Member Mann 16:00 CET German Buba Beermann Speaks 16:45 CET US PMI 17:00 CET US New Home Sales 17:00 CET US Crude Oil Inventories 21:00 CET BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks 21:00 CET FOMC Meeting Minutes Source: https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

This week is like a typical action movie - it begins with important, but not that striking events to gain momentum in time. First signs of the thrilling atmosphere will be earnings of McDonald's and other big names, but on Wednesday, it's the time for the first possible game-changer this week - the Fed interest rate decision. We reached out to Michael Hewson, Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets, to discover his point of view, as for the first time since summer, the Fed rate hike of 25bp is indeed cemented. Is he of the opinion there will be no real market reaction though? Michael Hewson (CMC Markets): I am surprised at how complacent markets are about this weeks Fed decision - there seems to be this view that the Fed is close to signalling a pause like the Bank of Canada last week. If anything, the recent US data suggests that the Fed could easily get away with another 50bps move which is something I think they should do. With the Nasdaq 100 up over 11% year to date, financial conditions are too loose with the market pricing in rate cuts by year end. We are a long way from signalling that the fight against inflation is done and could see a hawkish surprise this week, especially if Powell pushes back on recent moves in bond and equity markets. Read next: Glovo Is Planning To Layoff 250 Workers Worldwide, The Middle East Is Already Suffering From A Water Shortage| FXMAG.COM We also asked Michael about the situation on the British market. FXMAG.COM: Despite turbulent times of British economy FTSE 100 is close to reach new all-time high - what could be the effects of BoE interest rate decision on Thursday? Michael Hewson: There is unlikely to be much effect from this week's Bank of England meeting on the FTSE100, given that most companies in the UK index do the bulk of their business overseas.

FXMAG.COM: Do you expect any radical moves of EUR/GBP price in the near future? What can cause such fluctuations?  As forex traders keenly observe the EUR/GBP currency pair, there is speculation surrounding the likelihood of substantial price movements in the near future. Examining the underlying factors that can trigger notable fluctuations is essential for making informed decisions in the market.   Macroeconomic indicators, including GDP growth, inflation rates, and employment figures, offer valuable insights into the potential for significant moves in the EUR/GBP price.   Based on the latest available data for Q1 of 2023, Eurozone GDP growth experienced a 1.3% increase, while the UK maintained a stable growth rate of 0.10%. Political developments exert a considerable impact on the EUR/GBP exchange rate. Notably, events such as the recent UK election or updates related to Brexit have proven to be catalysts for volatility.   Staying well-informed about key political developments is crucial, as they can significantly influence the price of this currency pair. Central bank policies play a pivotal role in shaping the EUR/GBP exchange rate.   The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) periodically announce monetary policy decisions that affect this currency pair. It is important to keep a close watch on interest rate adjustments, quantitative easing programs, and forward guidance statements.   As of the latest interest rate decision on February 2, 2023, the ECB maintained rates at 3%, while the BoE held rates at 4.5% with a slight increase of 0.25% on May 11, 2023. Global economic trends and market sentiment can also influence the EUR/GBP price.   Trade relations between the Eurozone and the UK, as well as global economic conditions, can cause significant fluctuations. Monitoring geopolitical events, risk appetite indicators, and market sentiment can provide valuable insights into potential radical moves in this currency pair.   Predicting significant shifts in the EUR/GBP price is a complex task. However, analysing key factors such as macroeconomic indicators, political developments, central bank policies, and global economic trends can enhance your understanding of potential fluctuations. As of the latest available data on May 23, 2023, at 12:51, the EUR/GBP exchange rate stands at 0.87057. Stay well-informed about the latest news and events to navigate the market effectively and make informed trading decisions.

A hawkish hold from the Bank of Canada next week We expect the BoC to leave the policy rate at 4.5% next week, but after stronger-than-expected consumer price inflation and GDP and with the labour data remaining robust we cannot rule out a surprise interest rate increase. The market is pricing a 25% chance of a hike on 7 June, and a hawkish hold should be anough to keep the Canadian dollar supported.   Canadian resilience means a rate hike can't be ruled out The Bank of Canada last raised rates on 25 January and have held it at 4.5% ever since. The statement from the last meeting in April commented that global growth had been stronger than expected and that in Canada itself, “demand is still exceeding supply and the labour market remains tight”. The bank warned that it was continuing to “assess whether monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive and remain prepared to raise the policy rate further” to ensure inflation returns to 2%.   Since then we have had additional warnings from Governor Tiff Macklem that the bank remains concerned about upside inflation risks with the latest CPI report showing a month-on-month increase in prices of 0.7% versus a consensus forecast of 0.4%, resulting in the annual rate of inflation rising to 4.4%. The economy added another 41,400 jobs in April, more than double the 20,000 expected with wages rising and unemployment remaining at just 5%. The resilience of the economy was then emphasised further by first quarter GDP growth coming in at 3.1% annualised, beating the 2.5% consensus growth forecast. Consumer spending was the main growth engine, rising 3.1%.     But we favour a hawkish hold – signalling action unless inflation softens again soon Nonetheless, the BoC accept that monetary policy operates with long and varied lags and continue to believe that “as more households renew their mortgages at higher rates and restrictive monetary policy works its way through the economy more broadly, consumption is expected to moderate this year”. This will help to dampen inflation pressures and with commodity price softening we still believe that inflation can get close to the 2% target by the early part of 2024.   With the US economic outlook also looking a little uncertain, we doubt that the BoC will want to restart hiking interest rates unless it is certain that inflation pressures will not moderate as it has long been forecasting. Consequently we favour a hawkish hold, signalling that if there isn’t clearer evidence of softening in price pressures it could raise rates again in July.     The loonie's resilience can continue The Canadian dollar has been the best G10 performing currency in the past month, largely thanks to its high beta to the US economic narrative and a repricing of Canada’s domestic rate and growth story. These factors have outshadowed crude’s subdued performance in May and some risk sentiment instability.   A hawkish tone by the Bank of Canada at the June meeting is clearly an important element to keep the bullish narrative for CAD alive. As shown below, the recent repricing in Fed rate expectations caused a rebound in short-term USD swap rates relative to most currencies (like the euro), while the USD-CAD 2-year swap rate differential has remained on a declining path also throughout the second half of May.     As long as the BoC does not push back against the pricing for a hike in the summer, we expect CAD to remain supported. Some lingering USD strength in June can put a floor around 1.33/1.34 in USD/CAD, but we expect a decisive move to 1.30 in the third quarter and below then level before the end of the year.  

In this article, we engage in a conversation with analyst Patrick Reid to discuss the potential impact of the Bank of England's interest rate decision on GBP quotes. We also explore the Turkish central bank's upcoming interest rate decision and its potential effect on TRY quotes. Additionally, we analyze the latest PMI readings in the US and Europe, examining whether they indicate the possibility of a "hardset landing." Lastly, we delve into the consolidation of US 10-year bond yields after a strong two-year uptrend and speculate on what might lie ahead based on factors such as the Terminal Rate and US macroeconomic conditions.   FXMAG.COM: How will Thursday's (22.06) Bank of England interest rate decision affect GBP quotes? Patrick Reid:The rate hike is fully priced in so the Forward Guidance on Future hikes is crucial to watch. We had a very hawkish FED which the market didn't tend to believe followed by an ECB indicating more hikes in July.  With regards to The BOE I feel trust is coming back but the market needs to be ready for more hikes. We have sticky Core Inflation and a mortgage crisis about to blow up. FXMAG.COM: How will Thursday's (22.06) Turkish central bank's decision on interest rates affect TRY quotes? Patrick Reid:I feel Turkey needs rates above 20% as the new appointment of senior officials to the Central Bank has not done much to stop its decline.      FXMAG.COM: What do the latest (23.06) PMI readings say about the US and European economies? Do they signal the possibility of a " hardset landing " in America and the Old Continent? Patrick Reid:ISM has been weaker in The US as of late but Friday will be key - especially for European PMI's. USD is consolidating at the yearly lows so i fell we will need a big beat of miss for this to change     FXMAG.COM: For several months, US 10-year bond yields have been consolidating after a 2-year robust uptrend, what's next?  Patrick Reid:It all depends on The Terminal Rate and US macro. I do not see 2 Year getting above 6% this year unless inflation goes higher and GDP doesn't get much weaker.  

We recently had the opportunity to speak with an analyst from Squared Financial to discuss the current market situation. With the crypto market showing resilience and gaining 3.9% in the past 24 hours, reaching a capitalisation of $1.18 trillion, it has diverged from the downward trend seen in stock indices due to expectations of a rate hike.  Bitcoin, in particular, has experienced a surge of over 15% in just two days, revisiting the April highs. However, as we delve deeper into the market dynamics, doubts arise regarding the sustainability of the cryptocurrency rally amidst the challenging environment created by the stock indices.   FXMAG.COM: How will a mid-term Fed and ECB decision last week affect EUR/USD? The Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish pause. Markets were anticipating a pause with a possibility of one more rate hike in July followed by a rate cut by the end of the year. However, the Federal Reserve hinted at two more hikes and no rate cuts this year. Markets had to price in such a scenario. However, the ECB was more hawkish than the Federal Reserve, keeping the door open for further hikes on higher inflation expectations, sending the Euro over 1.09. In the meantime, the Dollar Index is showing signs that the downside trend has resumed. Yet it needs more time to confirm. Another weekly close below 102.60's would confirm that. On the other hand, this would be a confirmation that the Euro's upside trend has resumed as well, which could be targeting 1.11 within two weeks. FXMAG.COM: How will Thursday's (22.06) SNB interest rate decision affect CHF quotes? Switzerland's Core Inflation rate ticked below 2.0% in its latest release, which is the lowest core inflation rate since November of last year. The annual inflation rate in Switzerland eased to 2.2% in May 2023 from 2.6% in the previous month in line with market forecasts. There is no reason for any surprise by the Swiss National Bank. A 25bps is highly possible, but what matters the most is if the SNB hints at a pause. If so, CHF is likely to weaken. FXMAG.COM: Is there a chance that the U.S. SEC oversight will finally approve the application of some investment company to authorize the creation of an ETF with exposure to BTC, and how will that affect the price of this cryptocurrency and others? It is highly possible that the SEC will authorize crypto-related ETFs especially those with exposure to BTC. Despite all the headwinds the Crypto market had over the past few months, we saw some stabilization. Moreover, when it comes to the price and time method, it suggested that BTC ended its bear market back in March. The application of major investment companies sparked another wave of optimism, yet tough regulations are still needed.

Yesterday, on the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair experienced a rebound from the corrective level of 127.2% (1.2777), then dropped nearly to 1.2676 and returned to the 1.2777 level. Another rebound from this level will favor the American currency, leading to a decline toward the Fibonacci level of 100.0% (1.2676). If the pair's rate closes above 1.2777, it increases the likelihood of further growth towards the next corrective level of 161.8% (1.2905).   Trading volumes have been sufficiently high recently, and trader sentiment remains bullish. In a few hours today, the Bank of England will announce its decision on the interest rate.   According to forecasts, the rate will increase by 0.25% again, with 7 out of 9 MPC committee members voting in favor of the hike. This decision has already been factored into current prices, but bullish traders are currently very strong and can accommodate the same rate hike twice.   There is no scheduled speech by Andrew Bailey in the economic events calendar; we must rely on meeting minutes and accompanying letters. Despite yesterday's weak inflation report, the market does not expect a 0.50% rate increase today. As a result, Powell's second speech may have an even greater impact on the pair's movement, but the issue is that these two events almost coincide. When the Fed President's speech begins, it will be difficult to determine whether or not the market pays attention to it.     Therefore, we should anticipate active trading today, but it doesn't necessarily mean the pair will move in one direction. It could be a situation similar to yesterday. On the 4-hour chart, the pair has reversed in favor of the British pound and resumed upward toward the 1.2860 level after two bullish divergences were formed in the RSI and CCI indicators. There are no new emerging divergences observed in any indicators today. If the pair's rate rebounds from the 1.2860 level, it would indicate a reversal in favor of the US dollar, resulting in a decline toward the Fibonacci level of 100.0% (1.2674).  

RBA Governor Lowe announces major changes at RBA Board US inflation expected to decline The Australian dollar was sharply higher on Wednesday but could not consolidate these gains. AUD/USD is unchanged in Europe, trading at 0.6691.   Will RBA Governor be replaced? Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe spoke on Wednesday and announced key changes to the RBA Board. The moves were in response to a scathing review that called for major changes in how the RBA Board operates. Lowe announced that the RBA Board would meet eight times a year rather than the current eleven times, although each meeting would be longer. The RBA Governor will hold a press conference after every meeting to explain the Board’s interest rate decision. As well, the rate statement announcing the decision will be issued by the Board, rather than the governor as is currently the case. The RBA and particularly Governor Lowe have faced intense criticism over their rate decisions, in particular Lowe’s promise as late as November 2021 that he would not raise rates until 2024. This resulted in households borrowing heavily, only to be whacked with an aggressive rate-tightening campaign in early 2022. Lowe later claimed that he had not made such a promise but the damage was done and it’s a strong possibility that he may be replaced as RBA Governor- a decision could be made in the next few days. Lowe has indicated he would be happy to remain at the helm of the RBA. Lowe’s speech also touched on policy but didn’t add anything new. Lowe said that the full effects of high rates were yet to be felt and it remained to be seen if more hikes would be required. Lowe said the situation remains complex, which is very much the case both for the Australian economy and his role as Governor.   US inflation expected to drop All eyes are on the US June inflation report, which will be released later on Wednesday. Headline inflation is expected to drop to 3.1% y/y, down from 4.0%. That would be good news, but the Fed will be more interested in how the core rate performs. Core CPI is expected to fall from 5.3% y/y to 5.0%, and on a monthly basis from 0.4% to 0.3%. If the core rate is higher than expected, we could see market pricing rise with regard to a September hike. A rate hike at the July 27th meeting is widely expected, but the key question is what is the Fed planning after that, and today’s inflation release could help answer that question. . AUD/USD Technical AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6666. This is followed by support at 0.6623 0.6732 and 0.6838 are the next resistance lines  

Recent industrial production data from the Eurozone paints a concerning picture for the European economy and industry. According to Eurostat data, industrial production in Europe declined by 2% year over year in May, exceeding expectations of a 1% decrease. This raises questions about the broader impact on the European economy. The industrial sector plays a crucial role in any economy as it encompasses the processing and transformation of raw materials into finished and semi-finished products. This sector significantly influences other parts of the economy, including the housing market, retail sector, consumer spending, and ultimately, inflation. Changes in industrial production directly affect the supply and availability of products, which can have broader implications for the overall economic landscape.     FXMAG.COM: What does the industrial production reading from the Eurozone tell us about the state of the European economy and European industry?   Antreas Themistokleous: The industrial production in Europe for the month of May has declined by 2% year over year according to Eurostat data. This came out to be worse than the expectations of only 1% so how does that affect the European economy?    First of all the industrial sector is a major component of an economy since it's responsible for the processing and the transformation of natural products (raw materials) into other finished and semi-finished products which in turn assist in other parts of the economy such as the housing market, the retail sector. In addition it affects the consumer spending and inevitably inflation since it directly affects the supply and availability of products to be consumed.    Inflation data is another major component that affects an economy and the European inflation rate has shown some steady decline since the high of 10.6% in October 2022. Currently the rate is at 6.1% and on the 19th the official rate for the month of June will be published. Expectations are for a further decline of around 0.6% which if confirmed could influence the decisions of the European Central Bank in regards to their monetary policy and inevitably their interest rate decision on their next meeting on the 27th of July.    The interest rate set by the ECB is currently at 4% while the market is expecting the central bank to proceed with another step hike , 0.25%, at their meeting in late July. If the expectations are correct then we might see some boost for the Euro against its pairs while unemployment is holding stable at 6.5% for the last two months.   All in all the European economy seems to be at a stagnant phase. Inflation seems to be stickier than expected resulting in continued hawkish stance by the central bank to increase interest rates in an effort to discourage economic activity in the market. On the other hand unemployment is near a 25 year low adding to the buying power of consumers pushing inflation figures to the upside creating what temporarily seems to be a never ending cycle when it comes to fighting inflation.   

Russia The Russian central bank is expected to hike the key rate by 50 basis points on Friday, taking it back to 8%. This comes as inflationary pressures are building and the rouble has been falling against the dollar. It hit its lowest level since March last year, recently, which is also more than 10% below its pre-invasion levels.   South Africa The SARB is expected to leave its repo rate unchanged next week at 8.25% after what has been a very aggressive tightening cycle. It’s risen 4.75% since September 2021 but with inflation now close to target – fresh data for June will be released a day earlier on Wednesday – the time to pause may have arrived. Of course, a nasty shock from the CPI could change that.   Turkey The CBRT will announce its latest interest rate decision on Thursday and another wide range of forecasts are likely ahead of the event. The central bank broke away from the unconventional policy approach adopted prior to the election and almost immediately abandoned after, so a large hike is likely on the cards. But the new CBRT Governor was more conservative than many expected at the last meeting and could be again this time. The lira remains near record lows though so the pressure is on.    Switzerland No major releases or events next week.   

GBP: Some downside risks to sterling The Bank of England announces its interest rate decision and releases a new Monetary Policy Report (MPR) at 1300CET today. Most analysts expect a 25bp hike in the Bank Rate to 5.25%, but a significant minority are looking for a 50bp rate hike. Money markets price around 32bp of tightening today. Despite the welcome UK June CPI figures, no one expects the BoE to let its guard down on inflation and its statement will likely retain words to the effect that rates could be raised further were there evidence of more persistent price pressures in the economy. The market will also be looking out for the CPI forecasts in the monetary policy report and also whether the BoE has anything to say about Quantitative Tightening (QT), currently running at a pace of £80bn per annum. Some are arguing that QT could be accelerated to well over £100bn p.a. A slightly risk-off environment and our baseline call of the BoE only hiking 25bp could be a mild negative for sterling – especially were the BoE to go further than the Fed in acknowledging the process of disinflation. For cable that means an outside risk of a drop to the 1.2580/2600 area (depending on the dollar environment), while EUR/GBP could be correcting back to the 0.8640 area.

RBA expected to pause US nonfarm payrolls rise slightly to 187,000 The Australian dollar has started the week with slight gains. In Monday’s European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6464, up 0.21%.   RBA expected to pause The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold interest rates at 4.10% when it meets on Tuesday and a rate hike would be a huge surprise. The central bank has paused for two straight meetings and the odds of a third pause stand at 86%, according to the ASX RBA rate tracker. The most important factor in RBA rate policy is of course inflation. In July, CPI fell to 4.9% y/y, down from 5.4% y/y and better than the consensus of 5.2% y/y. Inflation is moving in the right direction and has dropped to its lowest level since February 2022. A third straight pause from the RBA will likely raise expectations that the current rate-tightening cycle is done but I don’t believe we’re at that point just yet. This is Governor Lowe’s final meeting and he is expected to keep the door open to further rate hikes. Incoming Governor Bullock stated last week that the RBA “may still need to raise rates again”, adding that the Bank will make its rate decisions based on the data. The RBA isn’t anywhere near declaring victory over inflation and has projected that inflation will not fall back within the 2%-3% inflation target until late 2025.   The week wrapped up with the US employment report for August. The Fed will be pleased as nonfarm payrolls remained below 200,00 for a third straight month, rising from a revised 157,000 to 187,000. Wage growth fell to 0.2% in August, down from 0.4% in July and below the consensus of 0.3%. The data cements a rate hold at the September 20th meeting, barring a huge surprise from the CPI report a week prior to the rate meeting. . AUD/USD Technical AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6458. Above, there is resistance at 0.6516 There is support at 0.6395 and 0.6337    

Wage data highlights fragile state of UK economy ahead of holiday season The latest data from the Office for National Statistics reveals a deceleration in UK wage growth and a decline in job vacancies, reflecting a cooling labor market in the face of economic challenges and elevated interest rates. This moderation in wage growth comes at a time when the British economy faces a Christmas spending squeeze, emphasizing the ongoing fragility of economic conditions and risks posed by a misstep by the Bank of England which is expected to announce its decision this Thursday.    The muted wage growth may be viewed positively by the Bank of England as it prepares to make decisions on interest rates, indicating that the current high borrowing costs are effectively tempering economic activity and mitigating the risk of a wage-price spiral. Meanwhile, this economic context underscores the delicate balance the Bank of England aims to strike, with the cooling labor market potentially signaling a mitigating impact of elevated interest rates on economic overheating as the evolving dynamics of wage growth and job vacancies provide valuable insights into the broader economic landscape and the potential impact on consumer spending during the festive period.