inflation uk

UK consumer inflation accelerated to 5.1% in November, coming close to turning peaks in 2008 and 2014 of 5.2%. Higher levels were last seen in Britain only in the early 1990s. The figures exceeded economists’ average estimates of 4.8%. Overall, the entire inflation data package exceeded expectations, posting a 14.3% y/y rise in producer input prices. Producer selling prices show a 9.1% YoY increase. Meanwhile, producers continue to pass the increased costs onto consumers to a large extent, as producer input prices added 1% for November, selling prices added 0.9%, and consumer prices added 0.7%. Yesterday we saw employers broadly maintaining the pace of wage growth until October, indicating that the inflationary spiral continues to unwind. This is a significant signal for the Bank of England, which on Thursday could give a clear call of a rate hike early next year. And it’s good news for GBP, which gets support on the decline to 1.32 earlier this week.

While the government and Bank of England have attempted to deal with the rise in prices and creeping inflation, today's figures continue to show that the path forward may be longer than expected. While a slight adjustment in monetary policy may contribute, today’s data showed the highest level in 30 years as the economy is still recovering from the pandemic and could take a significant amount of time to return to normal levels. Ultimately, this situation continues to impact everyday consumers who may see some very noticeable changes to their lifestyle and expenses if the ongoing trend continues. Crypto markets retreat as investors worry about increased regulation and central bank decisions Crypto markets along with other traditional risk assets continue to feel the pressure of incoming fiscal and monetary policy changes from central banks which is due to remove some of the excess liquidity from markets after the unprecedented support received by them, However, crypto is currently dealing a wide variety of negative news and potential increases in regulations which have contributed to the recent pullback across assets as Ethereum continues to hover above the key $3000 psychological level. While fundamental factors may have changed slightly, the second biggest coin is trading at the lowest level in several months and as traders await a catalyst, the situation remains potentially quite volatile. Activision Blizzard acquisition by Microsoft could be a game changer This $68,7 Billion deal could prove to be a turning point for Activision Blizzard, who has seen its share price drop more than 44% in the last year on the back of disappointing results and a number of corporate as well as internal issues. Microsoft announced it will be offering as many Activision Blizzard games as possible within Xbox Game Pass and PC Game Pass, which just reached 25 million subscribers, and might provide the much needed boost in player base. Furthermore, a more direct input in general operations decisions could aim to rectify decisional issues and bring a more united direction for the company moving forward. Investors already reacted to this news favourably with Activision Blizzard stock price gaining over 30% on Tuesday while Sony stock actually fell as shareholders consider the risks associated with this acquisition.  

There is no sign of inflation slowing down, there are still major issues with the supply chains, money supply is still rising and the war in the Ukraine affecting investor sentiment are all aspects driving the rise in inflation worldwide. UK Inflation: The increase has deepened the cost of living crisis in the UK The UKs inflation hit an all time 30 year high in March and the April reading is expected to further increase. As a result over the last month, investments in REITs have increased, as investors are looking to REITs as a potential hedge against inflation, REITs are also a useful tool to diversify an investment portfolio. The graph shows one of the top REITs (Residential Secure Income Plc ) in the UK and its performance over the past week amidst the announcements of housing inflation increasing. Related article: ECB To Shock Markets In The Following Week!? US Dollar Rate Under Pressure As Well! Price Chart of Residential Secure Income Plc

It’s not easy time for Europe’s residents and European Central Bank’s decision makers. Ongoing war in the Ukraine with foreseen, intensified warfare and consequences of COVID-19 pandemic influenced economics of many countries. Naturally, the charts show that DAX and CAC40 trade higher than before the outbreak of the virus. To me, it only supports the thesis all mentioned events stopped European indices, companies and countries from growing much, much further. Emphatic European Central Bank (ECB) Let Economies Recover And Stay Strong? Since 2016 the ECB interest rate has amounted to 0%. Having in mind all the events which took place throughout last six years it seems to had been a correct decision. Coronavirus crisis influenced countries despite their economic status so tighter monetary policy would have weaken the euro and equities even further. But… Related article: ECB Interest Rate Decision Is Coming! European Indices (DAX, CAC40) To Plunge Or Rise? What About Forex Pairs? Inflation Is Taking Its Toll! Although the Russia-Ukraine warfare is still there and negotiations don’t seem to be working and stimulus for markets is highly demanded, the inflation is gaining momentum around the world. ECB is trapped in. These two contradictory factors may make decision makers confused, but let’s have a look how have markets reacted to today’s monetary policy statement of ECB. Forex: EUR/GBP Chart Shows Consequent Move Of The Price Strengthening of euro or weakening of British pound is driven by i.a. inflation data coming from the United Kingdom. The news coming from the UK in past months weren’t so optimistic as the inflation hit 30-year-high. EUR/GBP Chart Forex: EUR/USD influenced by both – ECB interest rate decision, war and Fed’s rhetoric As the week is coming to the end we see how many factors shaped the rates of certain currencies. This week’s inflation data of USA and the release of crude oil inventories make the asset quite volatile. Yeah… The right hand side… That’s a drop! EUR/USD Chart DAX Regained After Trading Lower Yesterday’s Morning Significant, ca. 2% decrease is almost compensated. DAX (GER40) Chart CAC40 Is Heading To A 1% Gain French index has been more aggressive until now. Today’s opening gain brought some optimism to investors. CAC40 Chart Source/Data: Investing.com, TradingView.com Charts: Courtesy Of TradingView.com

Today, tomorrow and on Monday many countries around the world celebrate Easter. Friday was a day free for many stock markets and banks too. As we wrote yesterday forex market was live so we may say it had some time to stock (sic!) up. The following week is going bring many news and next proves of hawkish rhetoric of Fed, ECB and BoE. Monday – Going East – Chinese GDP On Monday many, many countries – Germany, Italy Spain, Australia and more has a day free. Only in China, very early in the morning GDP and Industrial Production are printed. Previously Gross Domestic Product amounted to 4%. Another indicator released at 3 a.m. – Industrial Production hit 7.5% previously. Related article: Deutsche Bank Shook DAX! French Election, Inflation And ECB Are Factors Which Shaped DAX (GER 40), CAC40, FTSE 100 And IBEX35 - Top Gainers, Top Losers Tuesday – RBA Meeting Minutes – NZD/USD To Plunge Again!? It’s good to have a look at RBA Meeting Minutes in the morning. The document will be released at 2:30 a.m. and may let us prepare NZD rate prediction. At 1:30 p.m. we focus on the data coming from the USA. Building Permits release previously amounted to 1.865M. This indicator let us diagnose the real estate market in the United States. Wednesday - Crude Oil Price To Skyrocket!? CAD/USD And NZD/USD May Fluctuate! First release of the day is Chinese PBoC Loan Prime Rate which takes place at 2:15 a.m. Previously this indicator amounted to 3.7%. At 1:30 p.m. you better follow CAD/USD and other pairs with Canadian dollar as Core CPI may shake the rate. Indicator amounted to 0.8% previous time. Later in the afternoon investors should follow the release of Existing Home Sales (6.02M) and, what’s most important – Crude Oil Inventories. ON April 13th Crude Oil Inventories hit 9.382M! Very late in the afternoon we focus on New Zealand where CPI (Q1) is released. Let’s follow NZD forex pairs then. Thursday – Huge Gain Of US Dollar Index (DXY) Amid Hawkish Fed!? Follow Euro To US Dollar (EUR/USD) and GBP/USD Fluctuations! What Will BoE And ECB Do? Naturally next Fed decision is made in May, but before it happens we all stay updated with the current Fed rhetoric expressed by i.a. Jerome Powell who speaks at 6 p.m. on Thursday. What’s more it’s going to be a really, really market moving day as alongside Powell, BoE’s Bailey and ECB’s Lagarde speaks as well! Additionally, at 10 a.m. the EU CPI is released. After the recent interest rate decision ECB’s rhetoric is definitely worth a follow! Article on Crypto: Hot Topic - NEAR Protocol! Terra (LUNA) has been seeing a consistent downward price trend, DAI Should Stay Close To $1 Friday – GBP/USD To Plunge!? UK Manufacturing PMI Release And BoE’s Lagarde Speaks Again The following week ends with some important releases. We begin with UK Retail sales, Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI and German Manufacturing PMI. In the afternoon Canadian Core Retail Sales (2.5%) is released. The day ends with ECB’s and BoE’s representatives’ testimonies. Source/Data: Investing.com Economic Calendar

EURUSD retests 37 YEAR TREND LINE SUPPORT AT 1.0760/20. Longs need stops below 1.0670. Obviously there is nothing more important than this level this week. Longs at 1.0760/20 initially target 1.0820/50. Above here is more positive targeting 1.0900/20 then 1.0960/70. USDCAD strong resistance at 1.2650/70. Shorts need stops above 1.2690. A break higher is a medium term buy signal. Related article: Monetary Policy Drives EUR/USD, The Future of the EUR/GBP Awaits the Bank Of England's Speech - Good Morning Forex| FXMAG.COM Very minor support at 1.2610/1.2590 & again at 1.2525/05 today. If we continue lower look for 1.2480/70. We have another buying opportunity at 1.2440/10. Longs need stops below 1.2370. A break lower is an important medium term sell signal. USDJPY beat 14 year trend line resistance at 127.10/50 & rocketed another 200 pips!! The pair has 13 blue bodied daily & 7 weekly candles in a row. So sell signal yet despite severely overbought conditions. Above 129.50 look for 129.90/95 then 130.25/35, perhaps as far as 130.75/85. First support at 128.45/25. Further losses can target 127.80/70. Unlikely but if we continue lower look for strong support at 127.10/126.90. Read next: Gold Price Falls, Volatility in Wheat Futures and The Price Of Palladium| FXMAG.COM EURJPY higher as expected reaching 139.67 & no sell signal yet as we become overbought. Further gains can target 139.95/99 then 140.40/50 & 140.85/95. GBP To USD GBPUSD retests last week's low at 1.2990/70 after the bullish engulfing candle so now we just have to see if we get a double bottom buy signal or if the pair break lower for a sell signal. So far the bulls are winning as we bounce from 1.2977. A break below 1.2955 should be a medium term sell signal. Our longs target 1.3060/70 & 1.3100/10, perhaps as far as first resistance at 1.3150/70. Please email me if you need this report updated or Whatsapp: +66971910019 – To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk

Summary: EUR/USD and Monetary Policy. Bank Of England's Speech on Thursday effect on the GBP related currency pairs. AUD/CHF as a reflection of investor risk sentiment. Related article: Japanese Yen (JPY) Weakens Against The Dollar, USD/CAD Stable And The Inevitable Strengthening Of The USD, IMF/World Bank Events Monetary Policy driving the EUR/USD price action. Since the market opened this morning, the EUR has strengthened against the USD and the market sentiment is bullish, the rise in price is small but significant given the current economic conditions. With the differing monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) the EUR/USD currency pair price is low. In the coming weeks it is likely to see the dollar strengthening thanks to the expectations of the Fed to tighten monetary policy. Whereas, there is no certainty on when the ECB will begin rising interest rates. EUR/USD Price Chart Value of the GBP Awaits BOEs Speech Since the market opened this morning the price of the currency pair has increased, however, market sentiment for the EUR/GBP has changed from bullish yesterday to a mixed today. The strengthening EUR against GBP comes in light of the Bank of Englands (BOE) announcements tomorrow regarding the future monetary policy of the country, investors are expecting more hawkish actions. EUR/GBP Price Chart  Read next: Altcoins' Rally: Solana (SOL) Soars Even More, DOT and SHIBA INU Do The Same! | FXMAG.COM AUD/CHF Since the market opened this morning, the value of the AUD/CHF has increased, and has a bullish market sentiment. This currency pair can be used as a good reflection of risk sentiment, this is because the AUD is risk-on and the Swiss Franc is considered as a safe-haven currency. AUD/CHF Price Chart GBP loses some ground on the JPY The price of the GBP/JPY currency pair has (in general) been on the rise as a result of the rapidly depreciating value of the Yen. However, since the market opened this morning the price has decreased despite the bullish market sentiment, possibly due to the uncertainty regarding the future of the GBP and the upcoming BOE’s announcements. GBP/JPY Price Chart Sources: Finance.yahoo.com, teletrade.eu, dailyfx.com

Every asset class has been on a rollercoaster ride as investors are watching central bankers all around globe tighten monetary policy to fight inflation.  Financial conditions are starting to tighten and the risks of slower growth are accelerating.   The focus for the upcoming week will naturally be a wrath of Fed speak and the latest US CPI data which is expected to show inflation decelerated sharply last month. A sharper decline with prices could vindicate Fed Chair Powell’s decision to remove a 75 basis-point rate increase at the next couple policy meetings. A close eye will also stay on energy markets which has shown traders remain convinced that the market will remain tight given OPEC+ will stick to their gradual output increase strategy and as US production struggles to ramp up despite rising rig counts.  Energy traders will continue to watch for developments with the EU nearing a Russian energy ban.   US Market volatility following the FOMC decision won’t ease up anytime soon as traders will look to the next inflation report to see if policymakers made a mistake in removing even more aggressive rate hikes off the table over the next couple of meetings.  The April CPI report is expected to show further signs that peak inflation is in place.  The month-over-month reading is expected to decline from 1.2% to 0.2%, while the year-over-year data is forecasted to decrease from 8.5% to 8.1%. The producer prices report comes out the next day and is also expected to show pricing pressure are moderating.  On Friday, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report for the month of May should show continued weakness. The upcoming week is filled with Fed speak that could show a divide from where Fed Chair Powell stands with tightening at the June and July meetings.  On Tuesday, Fed’s Williams, Barkin, Waller, Kashkari, Mester, and Bostic speak.  Wednesday will have another appearance by Bostic. Thursday contains a speech from the Fed’s Daly.  On Friday, Fed’s Kashkari and Mester speak.   EU The Russia/Ukraine war and the sanctions against Russia have dampened economic activity in the eurozone. Germany, the largest economy in the bloc has been posting weak numbers as the war goes on. With the EU announcing it will end Russian energy imports by the end of the year, there are concerns that the German economy could tip into a recession. On Tuesday Germany releases ZEW Survey Expectations, which surveys financial professionals. Economic Sentiment is expected to decline to -42.5 in May, down from -41.0 in April. On Friday, the Eurozone releases Industrial Production for March. The Ukraine conflict has exacerbated supply line disruptions, which is weighing on industrial production. The sharp drop in German Industrial Production (-3.9%), suggests that the Eurozone release will also show a contraction. The March estimate is -1.8%, following a gain of 0.7% in February. 

UK consumer prices rose by 2.5% in April, the second-biggest monthly gain in the indicator’s history since 1988. Annual inflation jumped from 7% to 9%, unseen in the indicator’s history. Metals, meanwhile, have withdrawn from the highs The longer-established retail price index last saw a high annual growth rate (11.1% y/y in April) in 1982, while such a big monthly jump (3.4% m/m) was last observed in 1980. However, despite the horror that these figures represent, there are still indications that the UK’s peak annual rate of inflation will be much lower than in the 1980s (22%) or 1970s (27%). While Output Producer Prices are showing an acceleration in the annual growth rate, rising to 14%, Input PPI has slowed from 19.2% to 18.6%. Although remaining volatile in recent weeks, oil and gas have regularly retreated from highs, limiting upward pressure on prices. Metals, meanwhile, have withdrawn from the highs. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM Early hints that UK inflation may be slowing in the coming months may allow the Bank of England to raise the rate by 25 points At the same time, there are growing questions about final global demand, which will constrain producers in shifting costs to consumers. Early hints that UK inflation may be slowing in the coming months may allow the Bank of England to raise the rate by 25 points at its next meeting in mid-June and not copy the Fed’s 50-point move. This is moderately negative news for the British currency, which started to retreat from the $1.25 area on the data after a 2.9% rally from last Friday’s lows. Short-term traders should pay particular attention to the 1.2350 area. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM Already, a dip lower this week would suggest that the brief period of recharging dollar bulls has ended. In this case, GBPUSD could quickly fall below 1.2000, making the 1.1500 area a potential ultimate target for this attack Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

RBNZ hikes by 50-bps The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has raised policy rates by 0.50% to 2.0% this morning, with Governor Orr setting a hawkish tone in the press conference afterwards. In the statement itself, the RBNZ’s “least worst choices” policy seemed to imply that although external risks remained, the domestic economy was strong and could tolerate tighter monetary conditions. Mr Orr seemed to be saying much the same, suggesting that terminal rates could go above 3.0% and would get there sooner, rather than later. We’ll see just how strong the New Zealand economy is in due course, but a hawkish RBNZ has seen the New Zealand dollar rally by 0.70% to 0.6505 today, making it the biggest currency gainer in Asia today. Elsewhere, Singapore’s GDP growth came in tight on expectations, rising by 3.70% YoY for Q1. With inflation data yesterday also less worse than expected, expectations for another unscheduled tightening by the Monetary Authority of Singapore have receded for now. That may bring some relief to the Malaysian ringgit, which has fallen to 3.20 against the Singapore dollar. Snap Has Fallen In Malaysia itself, Inflation data for April continues to remain benign as domestic demand stays subdued. Inflation YoY rose by just 2.30% and will leave Bank Negara, like Bank Indonesia yesterday, in no hurry to tighten monetary policy. Ominously though, the Malaysian ringgit has shown no strength versus the US dollar. USD/MYR remains at recent highs at 4.4000 even as the greenback is experiencing an extended bull market correction versus the G-10 and EMFX elsewhere. If the US dollar turns higher once again, and the MYR resumes its sell-off, Bank Negara’s hand might be forced. Overnight, the recession word weighed on stock markets once again. European PMI data was a mixed bag. Manufacturing PMIs held steady, while Services PMIs fell as consumer demand takes a hit from the rise in the cost of living. That wasn’t enough to stop the euro rally, powered by suddenly hawkish ECB heavyweights. Bank of England, has already signalled a white flag on bringing down inflation The picture was rather grimmer in the United Kingdom where the most honest central bank in the world, the Bank of England, has already signalled a white flag on bringing down inflation and pencilled in a recession next year. UK Manufacturing PMI held steady at 54.6, but Services PMIs plummeted to 51.8. The UK is facing a winter of discontent as the cost of living soars, with the railways RMT union voting to strike over pay negotiations. Expect more of this going forward. Additionally, the Chancellor is apparently preparing to widen the scope of the windfall tax on energy companies, probably to help pay for his cost of living mini-budget. UK stock markets didn’t like that. Finally, the “party gate” report on those lockdown wine frenzies in the No 10 garden is due for release today, potentially putting more pressure on PM Johnson’s leadership. ​ Little surprise that the sterling slumped versus the euro and the US dollar overnight. In the United States, the recession world hit particularly hard after the Snap Inc. induced meltdown by Nasdaq stocks overnight. US New Home Sales plummeted to 591,000 in April, while Richmond Fed Manufacturing slumped to -9 in May. The S&P Global Services Flash PMI for May fell to 53.5, with Flash Manufacturing easing to 57.5. It was the new home sales that really frightened the street, though, as house building, and its ancillary services and suppliers are a good chunk of US domestic GDP. Soaring mortgage interest rates and petrol prices appear to be doing a lot of the Fed’s work for it before it even gets started. Read next: (TRX) TRON USD Decentralised Blockchain Platform That Focuses On Entertainment And Content Sharing. Altcoins: A Deep Look Into The TRON Network | FXMAG.COM If there is one takeout from all of this for me, it is that rising inflation and borrowing rates are already crimping the demand side of the equation. Unfortunately, we are seeing very little sign of price pressures reducing due to a combination of factors, all of which have been thrashed to death here and in research everywhere. The uncomfortable reality is that central banks are going to be forced to continue the tightening path, even as growth slows around the world, because inflation has proven sticky and not transitory. That is the least worst choice central banks need to make in a stagflationary environment. I am asked every day if we have seen the low in the equity market sell-off. Hopefully, I have answered the question. US President Joe Biden’s trip around Asia continues Finally, US President Joe Biden’s trip around Asia continues. Unfortunately, with its emphasis on containing China and hawking a trade agreement empty of potential access to the US domestic market (Congress needs to approve that), the trip is not going to make much headway in re-establishing US leadership in the region. Asia really needs to see the colour of America’s money. Furthermore, the reliability of the US as a partner has taken a further hit today, with White House officials explicitly refusing to rule out the possibility that the US could enact crude oil export restrictions to help cap energy prices domestically. The US doesn’t have a crude oil problem, it has a refining and transportation problem, but let’s not let facts get in the way. I have warned about food nationalism previously, but if President Biden prioritises November’s mid-term elections over the economic war with Russia, and supporting Europe, it really is every man for himself globally. I can’t see that being positive for equities anywhere, or European asset markets full stop, or for Ukraine. Only the Kremlin is likely to be popping champagne as the US does Russia’s divide and conquer for them. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

Weekly Recap It was another bearish week for the US Dollar as the greenback continued to sell off from YTD highs. The FOMC meeting minutes, released mid-week, did little to inspire a fresh rally in the Dollar. While the minutes confirmed the Fed’s hawkish stance and reinforced expectations for further 50bps hikes in June and July, there was little in the way of exciting details to get bulls reinvigorated. Additionally, with the Fed having seemingly turned more hawkish since that meeting, the minutes felt a little outdated. Christine Lagarde, ECB And Rate Hikes On the data front, a string of weaker-than-expected indicators out of the eurozone heightened growth concerns. With ECB’s Lagarde essentially confirming a July rate-hike, recession fears weighed on European asset markets though EUR itself remained well bid. Elsewhere, equities markets generally saw a choppy week though most indices ended the week in the green, benefitting from the weaker US Dollar. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM BOE’s Bailey warned that further rate hikes will likely be necessary in the face of rising inflation. The new fiscal package announced by the UK government this week, aimed at helping households fight rising energy bills, has further increased the likelihood of BOE rate hikes in the near-term. Weaker Dollar, Stronger Crude, Gold And Silver Commodities prices were higher over the week also. Gold, silver and oil all rallied on the back of a weaker US Dollar. With monetary policy divergence between the Fed and other central banks drying up, USD pressure has helped commodities stay afloat recently. Coming Up This Week Australian GDP Australian GDP will be closely watched this week on the back of the recent RBA rate hike. With the bank lifting rates and sounding firmly hawkish in its outlook and assessment, this week’s data might further support growing RBA rate hike expectations. With the country having emerged from one of the longest lockdowns of the pandemic, the economy has been on the bounce-back. However, as we have seen elsewhere, the economy has still been rocked by rising inflation and supply constraints. Traders will be keen to see the extent to which these factors weighed on the economy over the last quarter. BOC Rate Decision The BOC is widely expected to raise rates when it convenes for this month’s meeting mid-week. All 30 economists polled by Reuters ahead of the event are looking for a .5% hike. With this in mind, the focus will be on the bank’s forward guidance. If the BOC gives a clear signal that further hikes are coming in the near future, this should drive CAD higher near-term. However, if there is any indication that the BOC might look to hold off on any further rate hikes near-term, this will likely see cad dragged lower. Read next: Altcoins: Cardano (ADA) What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into Cardano (ADA) | FXMAG.COM US Non-Farm Payrolls The latest set of US labour market indicators this week will be closely watched as we head to the June meeting. Recent Fed commentary has been decidedly hawkish and it would likely take a major downside shock to change this narrative. Even then, it certainly wouldn’t impact the June rate hike and would likely only factor in forward guidance issued by the Fed. Still, with slowdown fears building, any weakness would no doubt act as a headwind to risk sentiment in the short-term. Forex Heat Map Technical Analysis Our favourite chart this week is the Dollar Index (DXY) The DYX has pulled back from recent multi-year highs and is now sitting on a make-or-break level at 101.94. This level was the 2020 closing high price. While the level holds as support, DXY is likely to recover and continue the longer-term bull trend. Below here, however, there is room for the correction to develop further towards next support at 100.37 Economic Calendar Plenty of key data releases to keep an eye on this week including Australian GDP, BOC rate decision and US Non-Farm Payrolls to name a few. Please see full calendar below for the complete schedule . Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News

EURUSD was rejected at key resistance at around 1.0360 and the falling upper trendline and is now close to test key support at around 1.01. If EURUSD closes below the support, parity is likely to be tested shortly after.RSI is still showing negative sentiment after failing to break above 60 threshold supporting the bearish picture. If RSI closes below 40 threshold combined with a EURUSD close below 1.01 down trend is confirmed., At the time of writing Bollinger bands are expanding indicating the initial stage of a (down)trend. IF EURUSD closes outside of the lower Bollinger band it is further a strong indication of a down trend.   Source: Saxo Group GBPUSD has formed a Double Top like pattern on the very short term. If GBPUSD closes below 1.20 it is confirmed and GBPUSD is likely to test July lows at around 1.1760 . If GBPUSD is to move the same distance as the difference between the peak and low of the Double Top formation after breaking 1.20 it could reach 1.1729 illustrated by the two vertical arrows. However, there could be more downside in store for GBPUSD. If it takes out 1.1760 there is not support before around 1.14. See weekly chart Source: Saxo Group     Source: Saxo Group Source: Technical Update - EURUSD and GBPUSD testing key supports. Will they hold or will EURUSD test parity again and GBPUSD drop to 1.14?

The recent behavior of the euro and the British pound and their potential weakness against the rest of the world's major currencies is beginning to bring concerns about a sustained deterioration in the prospects for these currencies. As Bloomberg commentators note, the behavior of the pound and the euro are worrisome. We have recently seen large shifts in the euro and pound's short-term market interest rates against the U.S. dollar, with a simultaneous weakening of the GBP/USD and EUR/USD exchange rates. Last week was the worst week for the pound in nearly two years, and at the same time, the yield on the UK's 2-year bond rose by 50 basis points. Typically, the opposite happens in developed markets. Expectations of a central bank rate hike and thus an increase in short-term market yields generally strengthen the currency. The collapse in the correlation between the exchange rate and interest rates is usually associated with emerging markets, which may have lost the battle for the credibility of keeping inflation within the inflation target. The energy dependence of the UK and Europe as a whole means that their balance sheets could deteriorate in the near future, while energy commodity inflation shows no signs of abating. Rate hikes in such a situation may not stem the tide of depreciation of the aforementioned currencies, Bloomberg reports. Thus, it seems that the winter months for the EUR and GBP may be a kind of test of the credibility of the economies in the eyes of investors. Their abandonment of investments in the EUR and GBP despite rising interest rates could be potentially worrying. Moreover, it could change the entire scene of the foreign exchange market. In the dollar index, the euro has a weighting of more than 57 percent, while the pound has a weighting of more than 11 percent. Together, these two currencies alone have a weighting of almost 70 percent. Since the beginning of the year, the euro against the U.S. dollar has lost almost 12 percent, and the British pound almost 13 percent. In contrast, since August 2021, the euro has lost almost 15 percent to the dollar, and the British pound less than 14 percent. Of the major currencies, only the Japanese yen has fared worse and has weakened by almost 20 percent against the U.S. dollar over the year. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.   Source: Pound and euro similar to currencies of emerging markets?

The focus for the upcoming week will naturally be a wrath of Fed speak and the latest US CPI data which is expected to show inflation decelerated sharply last month. A sharper decline with prices could vindicate Fed Chair Powell’s decision to remove a 75 basis-point rate increase at the next couple policy meetings.   Russia Russia’s inflation has been accelerating sharply since the invasion of Ukraine. In March, CPI rose to 16.7% (YoY) and is expected to climb to 18.1% in April. The driver behind the sharp upswing has been Western sanctions, which have reduced the availability of consumer imports and key components for domestic products. CPI is expected to continue to climb in the coming months.   China China releases its Balance of Trade on Monday and Inflation on Tuesday. Both have downside risks given the disruption to business and the collapse in property sales and sentiment due to the covid-zero policy. Restrictions continue tightening in Beijing and the covid-zero policy has become the biggest headwind to a China recovery. The government reaffirmed its commitment to the policy Friday, sending China stocks lower. Additionally, US-listed China stocks face new delisting risk from US regulators that is weighing on Hong Kong markets especially, where most dual listings live. Negative headlines around Covid 19 or US delisting over the weekend could send China equities sharply lower into the start of the week. USD/CNY and USD/CNH have now risen from  6.4000 to 6.7000 in just two weeks. The PBOC remains comfortable at this stage, being a back door stimulus to manufacturers. The PBOC USD/CNY fixing will be the key indicator as to whether the authorities have said Yuan depreciation has gone far enough.

Summary:  U.S. equities took a pause from their week-long advance, with S&P 500 retreating before its 200-day moving average. Target’s Q2 results disappointed as the retailer suffered from high inventories and U.S. consumers shifted from discretionary to grocery items. What is happening in markets? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I)  U.S.’s advance higher took a pause yesterday amid higher bond yields and disappointing results from Target (TGT:xnys), -2.7%. Target’s Q2 earnings fell sharply and missed consensus expectations on weaker gross margins due to slower sales in discretionary items and inventory impairments.  Lowe’s (LOW:xnys) reported mixed results, with earnings beating estimates but same-store sales growth weaker than expected. Higher U.S. bond yields triggered by a dramatic rise in U.K. bond yields and reported pension fund rebalancing-related selling added to the equity weakness.  S&P 500 dropped 0.7% and Nasdaq 100 shed 1.2%.  U.S. treasury yields rose from spilling over from a massive rise in U.K. Gilt yields and weak 20-year bond auction U.S. 10-year treasury yields jumped 9bps to 3.05%, taking cues from the sharp move higher in U.K. Gilts and European sovereign bond yields following white-hot UK CPI data. Long-end yields moved further higher on poor results from the 20-year auction.  Short-end yields fell in the late afternoon after the July FOMC minutes signaling that it “would become appropriate at some point to slow the pace of policy rate increases” which reaffirmed the market’s expectation of a 50bps, instead of 75bps on the September FOMC.  Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIQ2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hang Seng Index bounced modestly by 0.5%; CSI399 gained 9.6%. Meituan (03690:xhkg) rallied 3.3% after a 9% drop yesterday due to a Reuters story suggesting that Tencent (00700:xhkg) plans to divest its 17% stake (USD24 billion) in Meituan. Tencent denied such a divesture plan last night.  Power tools and floor care equipment maker and a supplier to Home Depot (HD:xnys) and Wal Mart (WMT:xnys), Techtronic Industries (00669:xhkg) jumped more than 10% after better-than-expected results from the two U.S. retailers. China Resources Power (00836:xhkg) +5.7% after reporting weak 1H22 results but more wind and solar projects on the pipeline. Other Chinese power producers also outperformed amid power shortages. China Power (02380:xhkg) surged more than 8%. On Tuesday, China’s Premier Li Keqiang visited Shenzhen and held a meeting with provincial chiefs from Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Henan, and Sichuan to reiterate the central government’s push for full use of policies to stabilize the economy. Hong Kong Exchanges (00388:xhkg) fell 1.6% after reporting lower revenues, higher costs, and a 22% YoY decline in EPS, worse than market expectations. After the market close, Tencent reported weak but in line with expectations revenues and better-than-feared earnings in Q2. Tencent’s ADR climbed 3.5% overnight from the Hong Kong close. AUDUSD eying the labor market report, GBP will see more pain ahead A mixed session again overnight for the US dollar with FOMC minutes and US retail sales failing to provide any fresh impetus to the markets. AUDUSD was the biggest loser on the G10 board, sliding below 0.7000 to lows of 0.6911 after real wage data for Q2 showed a massive slump. Labor market data due this morning could further weigh on RBA expectations, if it comes out softer than expected. The weakness seen in the commodity markets, especially iron ore and copper, weighed on the antipodeans. GBPUSD stays above 1.2000 despite a 40bps gains in UK 2-year yields after the double-digit UK CPI print. USDJPY tested the resistance at 135.50 but was rejected for now. Crude oil prices (CLU2 & LCOV2) Crude oil prices made a slight recovery overnight, with WTI futures getting back to over $87/barrel and Brent futures close to $94 after data showed US inventories fell sharply. Sentiment was also supported by comments from OPEC’s new Secretary-General, Haitham Al Ghais, who said that world oil demand will rise by almost 3mb/d this year. He also said there is a high chance of a supply squeeze this year, in part because fears of slowing usage in China are exaggerated. This helped to take the focus off the prospects of the Iran nuclear deal for now. What to consider? Stale FOMC minutes hint at sustained restrictive policy Fed’s meeting minutes from the July meeting were released last night, and officials agreed to move to restrictive policy, with some noting that restrictive rates will have to be maintained for some time to bring inflation back to the 2% target. Still, there was also talk of slowing the pace of rate hikes ‘at some point’, despite pushing back against easing expectations for next year. The minutes were broadly in-line with the market’s thinking, and lacked fresh impetus needed to bring up the pricing of Fed’s rate hikes. Chairman Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium next week will be keenly watched for further inputs. US retail sales were a mixed bag July US retail sales are a little softer at the headline level than the market expected (0% growth versus the +0.1% consensus) but the ex-auto came in stronger at 0.4% (vs. -0.1% expected). June’s growth was revised down to 0.8% from 1%. The mixed data confirmed that the US consumers are feeling the pinch from higher prices, but have remained resilient so far and that could give the Fed more room to continue with its aggressive rate hikes. Lower pump prices and further improvements in supply chain could further lift up retail spending in August. UK CPI opens the door for another 50bps rate hike UK headline inflation hits 10.1%, the highest in decades and above the 9.8% expected and for the month-on-month reading of +0.6%, higher than the +0.4% expected. Core inflation hit 6.2% vs. 5.9% expected and 5.8% in Jun. That matched the cycle high from back in April. Retail inflation rose +0.9% MoM and +12.3% YoY vs. +0.6%/+12.0% expected, respectively. The Bank of England has forecast that inflation will peak out this fall at above 13%. While the central bank forecasted a recession lasting for five quarters at the last meeting, it will be hard for them to not press ahead with further tightening at the August meeting, and in fact the scope for another 50bps rate hike is getting bigger. Reserve Bank of New Zealand hikes 50 basis points to 3.00%, forecasts 4% policy rate peak The RBNZ both increased and brought forward its peak rate forecast to 4.00%, a move that was actually interpreted rather neutrally – more hawkish for now, but suggesting that the RBNZ would like to pause after achieving 4.00%. RBNZ Governor warned in a press conference that New Zealand home prices will continue to fall. This is actually a desired outcome after a huge spike in housing speculation and prices due to low rates from the pandemic response and massive pressure from a Labor-led government that had promised lower housing costs were behind the RBNZ’s quick pivot and more aggressive hiking cycle in 2021. Australian wages grew at their quickest pace in eight years, but less than expected Australia’s wage-price index gained 0.7% in the second quarter, just shy of estimates further pressuring the Aussie dollar back toward its 50-day moving average against the US dollar. Annual wage growth came in at 2.6% but real wages - adjusted for headline inflation fell 1% QoQ, and was 3.3% lower than a year earlier, eroding consumer spending power. What’s next. All eyes will be on Australia’s Reserve Bank which might be pressured to hike more than expected at its September meeting. Despite Australian wages growing slower than expected, the RBA estimates retail gas and electric prices to rise 10-15% in the second half of the year, so that will be a focus point when they consider their next move in interest rates. Tencent reported weak but in-line Q2 revenues and better-than-feared earnings Tencent reported a revenue decline of 3% YoY in Q2, weak but in line with market expectations.  Non-GAAP operating profit was down 14% YoY to RMB 36.7 billion and EPS fell 17% YoY to RMB2.90 but they beat analyst estimates.  Revenues from advertising, -18% YoY, were better than expected.  In the game segment, weaker mobile game revenues were offset by stronger PC game revenues. Disappointing results from Target and mixed results from Lowe’s Target reported EPS of USD0.39, missing estimates.  The company indicated strength in food and beverage, beauty, and household essentials but weaker in discretionary categories.  Gross margin of 21.5%, down from 30.4% year-ago quarter and below expectations. Lowe’s reported better than expected EPS of USD4.67 (vs consensus USD4.58) but a decline of 0.3% in same-store sales.  Lowe’s inventories grew 11.6% YoY, substantially lower than peer Home Depot.  With a 15% increase in product costs, the inventory volume was in effect down low-single digit. Power crunch in China shut factories Chongqing is limiting power supply to industrial users from yesterday to next Wednesday.  In Sichuan, Foxconn’s Chengdu factory is suspending operations for six days from August 15 to 20 due to a regional power shortage. The suspension is affecting Foxconn’s supply of iPad to Apple.  The company says the impact “has been limited at the moment” but it may affect shipments if the power outage persists.  The Chengdu government is imposing power curbs on industrial users to ensure electricity supply for the city’s residents.  Toyota and CATL are also suspending some operations in Sichuan due to a power shortage. Foxconn has started test production of the Apple watch in Vietnam Foxconn has started test production of the Apple watch in its factories in Vietnam. With the passage of CHIPS and Science Act earlier this month in the U.S., investors are monitoring closely if Taiwanese and Korean chipmakers as well as their customers may be accelerating the building up of production capacity away from China.  World’s biggest Sovereign Wealth fund posts its biggest half-year loss on record   Norway’s oil fund, the world’s biggest owner of public traded companies lost 14.4% in the six months through to June. In currency terms that’s $174 billion. The slump was driven by the fund’s loss in technology stocks with Meta Platforms (owning Facebook and Instagram) and Amazon, leading the decline. However, just like the market, the fund’s energy sector delivered positive share price performance, benefiting from a sharp rise in earnings in the oil, gas, and refined energy product sector. Meanwhile, investments in logistics property helped the fund’s unlisted real estate holdings gain 7.1%, though they account for 3% of its assets. Japan’s inflation will surge further Japan’s nationwide CPI for July is due to be reported at the end of the week. July producer prices came in slightly above expectations at 8.6% y/y (vs. estimates of 8.4% y/y) while the m/m figure was as expected at 0.4%. The continued surge reflects that Japanese businesses are waddling high input price pressures, and these are likely to get passed on to the consumers, suggesting further increases in CPI remain likely. More government relief measures are likely to be announced, while any little hope for a Bank of Japan pivot is fading. Bloomberg consensus estimates are calling for Japan’s CPI to accelerate to 2.6% y/y from 2.4% previously, with the ex-fresh food number seen at 2.4% y/y vs. 2.2% earlier. For a week-ahead look at markets – tune into our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.   Source: APAC Daily Digest: What is happening in markets and what to consider next – August 18, 2022

Summary:  The USD weakened sharply overnight, led by a tumbling USDJPY on comments from Bank of Japan governor Kuroda after he met with Prime Minister Kishida. Risk sentiment was buoyant yesterday and overnight on the weaker US dollar and after the ECB hiked by 75 basis points as most expected, the most in the central bank’s history. EURUSD has backed up well above parity again ahead of an EU Summit that will attempt to outline a common approach to soaring power/gas prices amidst limited supplies ahead of winter.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) US equities continued to rally yesterday with S&P 500 futures pushing above the 4,000 level to close at 4,005, and even more impressively momentum is extending this morning in early European trading hours. The rally still seems to be mostly technically driven, but there was some support for US equities in yesterday’s initial jobless claims data showing little negative pressures in the US labour market. After the US market close, DocuSign shares rose 17% as the technology company delivered a strong result and raised its outlook breathing some fresh optimism into the technology sector. The next big event for US equities is the US August CPI report on Tuesday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIU2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hang Seng Index soared 2.6% today, snapping a six-day losing streak, following August inflation data in China surprised on the downside and raised hope for more monetary easing to come from the Chinese policymakers. Mega-cap internet stocks strongly, Meituan (03690:xhkg) +5.5%, Netease (0999:xhkg) +4.8%, Baidu (09888:xhkg)+3.6%, Alibaba (09988:xhkg) +3.1%, Tencent (00700:xhkg) +1.7%. One notable underperformance in the internet space was Bilibli (09626:xhkg/BILI:xnas) which plunged nearly 17% after reporting a larger than expected loss in 2Q2022 on the deterioration of gross and operating margins. Ahead of the mid-autumn festival, catering stocks gains, Jiumaojiu (09922:xhkg) +6.7%, Haidilao (06862:xhkg) +2.6%. Chinese property names rallied, led by Country Garden (02007:xhkg) which jumped 14%. CSI 300 climbed 1.3%, led by property names, financials and dental services.  USD broadly weaker after ECB meeting and USDJPY correction overnight Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda commented on the undesirability of sharp JPY moves in comments overnight after meeting with PM Kishida. This took USDJPY back below 143.00 two days after it nearly touched 145 in its latest surge higher. The threat of intervention may not hold the JPY higher for long if global yields continue higher again. Elsewhere, the USD was sharply lower despite a solid bounce-back in US treasury yields and EURUSD traded well north of parity again after an initially choppy reception of the expected 75-basis point hike from the ECB and President Lagarde’s press conference. The action took EURUSD back to the cusp of important resistance in the 1.0100 area, which has been the resistance of note for more some three weeks. The move was supported by surging European short yields, although the energy/power situation will remain the focus for the euro. Crude oil (CLV2 & LCOX2) The oil price weakness seen this week following the break below $91.5 and $85 in Brent and WTI may still end up being a temporary development with the dollar weakness seen overnight, especially against the yen and euro, adding a bid back into the market. Dr. Copper meanwhile is recovering as demand from China show signs of improving. Potentially a signal to the energy market of not getting too carried away by a temporary lockdown related slowdown in Chinese demand. However, with US implied gasoline demand falling below 2020 levels last week, a potential recovery above the mentioned level is likely to be muted. Focus on Putin and his threat to cut supply to nations backing the US-led price cap on crude sales and OPEC+ which may intervene should price weakness persist. Copper (COPPERUSDEC22) Copper trades higher with the futures market signaling increased tightness, primarily due to a pickup in Chinese demand and imports, which despite lockdowns has seen the infrastructure push ramping up. In addition, a lower-than-expected August CPI and PPI may give the PBoC more room to ease conditions. Exchange monitored inventory levels has dropped to an 8-month low at a time where mining companies struggle to meet their production targets with top producer Chile seeing its exports slump to a 19-month low due to water restrictions and lower ore quality. Speculators have increased short positions in recent weeks as a hedge against recession and China weakness, and they are now increasingly exposed. Support at $3.54 and for a real upside and trend reversal to occur the price needs to break above $3.78/lb. Bitcoin This morning Bitcoin rose the most in more than a month, surpassing the psychological $20k level and now trading at around $20.5k. This is despite a report published by the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy yesterday, stating that cryptocurrencies make a significant contribution to energy usage and greenhouse gas emissions in the US, and that they recommend monitoring and potential regulation. It could have a significant impact on cryptocurrencies using the proof-of-work consensus mechanism such as Bitcoin. US Treasuries (TLT, IEF) US Treasury yields bounced back toward the top of the range after the previous day’s decline, keeping the attention on the cycle highs for the 10-year yield near 3.50%. The treasury sell-off was sparked around the time of Fed Chair Powell firm comments on fighting inflation, which sent 2-year treasury yields some 8 basis points higher. The latest weekly jobless claims figures was out around the same time and showed the lowest level of claims since late May. What is going on? The ECB hiked interest rates by 75 basis points This was a unanimous decision of the ECB governing council. This is a major signal sent to the market. The move was aimed to catch up with the neutral rate (though the ECB acknowledges they don’t know where the neutral rate is). The ECB also revised upward its inflation forecasts sharply (from 6.8 % to 8.1 % this year). Growth forecasts were also revised. But the ECB still doesn't expect a recession in the eurozone (GDP growth expected at 0.9 % versus prior 2.1 % this year). During the press conference, ECB president Christine Lagarde opened the door to further interest hikes. This is no surprise. She committed to keep hiking over 2, 3 or 4 meetings (including today’s). This implies further hikes until October, December or February, followed by a pause. Forward guidance is not dead, finally. Expect a 50 basis point hike in October, in our view. The German 2-year Schatz yield rose over 20 basis points to yesterday to close at new cycle high of 1.33%. The United Kingdom announces a massive anti­-inflation plan Yesterday, the new prime minister Liz Truss announced a major plan to fight the high cost of living related to energy prices. There are five major measures: 1) capping household bills at £2500 per month. 2) a new £40bn liquidity scheme with the Bank of England for energy firms who need it. 3) no further windfall tax (a tax levied on an unforeseen or unexpectedly large profit). 4) speeding up the deployment of clean energy but at the same time granting more oil and gas licenses for North Sea. and 5) commitment to net zero 2050. If this is successful, it means that the peak in UK inflation will certainly be lower (by 4-5 %). So far, the government believes that the peak could be between 13 and 18 %. This is a broad range. But it shows the level of uncertainty about the short-term economic outlook. Finally, Truss refused to evaluate the total cost of the new plan. Several experts believe it could be close to £150bn, over 6% of UK GDP. DocuSign shares up 17% in extended trading Q2 revenue was much better than expected but confirmed its fiscal year outlook on revenue which was better than the underlying consensus which was clearly below analyst estimates. The company sounded optimistic on the billing outlook, which is the key indicator for future growth, and as a result traders pushed shares 17% higher in extended trading. Apple warned by US government against using Chinese chips Congressional Republicans including Senator Marco Rubio of the Senate intelligence committee and Michael McCaul of the House foreign affairs committee expressed alarm at reports that Apple cited Yangtze Memory Technologies as one of its suppliers of flash memory chips used for phone storage.  “Apple is playing with fire”, said Senator Rubio, threatening scrutiny of the company. Apple said it would not sell iPhones using the chips outside China. What are we watching next? EU Summit today on emergency intervention in power markets and possibly to cap imported Russian gas prices The EU may be able to cap electricity prices, but this could mean a shortage of output relative to demand, i.e., forcing rationing over the winter period when demand surges. Russian leader Putin has called any plan to cap prices “another stupidity”. Swedish election this weekend Swedes go to the polls on Sunday, with the right populist Sweden Democrats expected to become the second-largest political party. In the past, the right-leaning main parties have been unwilling to consider alliances with the Sweden Democrats, as their positions were seen as too extreme, but this has made for very fragile left-coalitions in recent years because of the lack of a sufficient plurality in Parliament. Earnings to watch Today’s key earnings release is Kroger which is a large US supermarket chain with a strong competitive position in the current inflationary environment. Analysts are expecting revenue growth of 8.6% y/y in FY23 Q2 (ending 31 July) and lower operating margin expected due to rising input costs. Today: Kroger Earnings releases next week: Monday: Oracle Tuesday: DiDi Global Wednesday: Inditex Thursday: Polestar Automotive, Adobe Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0930 – ECB President Lagarde to speak 1230 – Canada Aug. Net Change in Employment / Unemployment Rate 1600 – US Fed’s Waller (Voter) to speak 1600 – US Fed’s George (Voter) to speak Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher         Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-sep-9-2022-09092022

Next week's US inflation numbers will need to be quite surprising for the Fed to deviate from a 75bp hike at its September meeting. The Bank of England's scheduled meeting has been postponed, and instead the focus will be on several pieces of key UK data In this article US: Core inflation likely to rise to 6.1% UK: Bank of England to stick to 50bp rate hike despite energy package Source: Shutterstock Article updated on 9 September to reflect the postponement of the Bank of England's scheduled meeting US: Core inflation likely to rise to 6.1% We have the last full week of economic data ahead of the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, but it will take some surprising numbers to make the Fed deviate from a third consecutive 75bp rate hike. After all, the economy is posting decent growth, creating jobs in significant numbers, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell is arguing that “we need to act now, forthrightly, strongly as we have been doing and we have to keep at it until the job is done”. The data includes CPI, which should show headline inflation being depressed by lower gasoline prices, but core inflation is likely to rise to 6.1% from 5.9%. Retail sales should post flat growth, but remember this is a nominal figure and those falling gasoline prices will be a major drag. Real consumption is likely to be up in the third quarter. We also expect manufacturing output to grow further. The deteriorating global outlook and weakening domestic housing market combined with the cumulative impact of policy tightening and the strong dollar means we think the Fed will moderate its hiking to 50bp in November and 25bp in December. Weaker wage pressure and more limited month-on-month increases in CPI thanks to lower import and other input costs would certainly help this argument. UK: Bank of England to stick to 50bp rate hike despite energy package The United Kingdom will observe a period of mourning following Queen Elizabeth II’s death on Thursday, and Parliament will be adjourned during this time. The Bank of England's scheduled meeting has also now been postponed to the following week, but the ONS has confirmed that several pieces of important data will still be released. Here's what we expect: July GDP (Monday): Expect a large bounce-back from June, where the addition of an extra bank holiday artificially distorted the monthly GDP numbers. Depending on the arrangements during the period of mourning, the addition of an extra bank holiday in September is possible, and this would factor into the GDP numbers for the current month. We’ll therefore have to wait until the fourth quarter to get a clearer idea of how the economy is faring in GDP terms, and we suspect there’s still a risk of a negative growth figure. However, the announcement of an energy price guarantee by the government considerably reduces the risk of a deep downturn, and potentially also a technical recession. Jobs (Tuesday): Hiring demand is falling, though recent data and surveys have suggested that the worker shortages plaguing the jobs market have only improved slightly over recent months. The announcement of an energy price cap for businesses should help limit what otherwise could have been a more immediate rise in redundancies as firms’ costs increased. We expect the unemployment rate to remain stable next week, but we’ll also be watching closely for signs of a more pronounced return of inactive workers to the jobs market. Inflation (Wednesday): A 6% fall in petrol/diesel prices through August will drag headline inflation slightly lower. That doesn’t mean we’re past the peak, though the introduction of the energy price cap means inflation is less likely to materially surpass 11% in the autumn. Without the cap, we’d forecast inflation would go to 16% or above in January. This is a double-edged sword for the BoE. On one hand, the reduced the peak in headline inflation should ease concerns about consumer inflation expectations becoming even less anchored. That points to another 50bp rate hike when the BoE meets later in September, despite the Fed and ECB going more aggressively. The BoE has shown in past meetings that it isn’t pressured to follow those other central banks, albeit the hawks will be worried about the recent slide in sterling. They will also argue that the government’s action increases the risk of inflation staying elevated in the medium-term, given the reduced risk of recession, Some members are therefore likely to vote for a 75bp hike at the next meeting. But ultimately with a lot already priced into markets for the BoE, policymakers will be wary about adding fuel to the fire. As we saw with the ECB on Thursday, the decision to go with a 75bp hike saw markets price that as the default move at the next meeting. Key events in developed markets next week Source: Refinitiv, ING This article is part of Our view on next week’s key events View 3 articles   TagsUS Bank of England   Read this article on ING Economics   Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more    

Headline inflation will rise a little further having eased back below 10% in August, and it's likely to stay around 11% into early next year before falling back more dramatically. However, the Bank of England is watching wage growth more closely, as the hawks worry that worker shortages could lead to core inflation staying more persistently above target The introduction of a government cap on household energy prices means that we should now be fairly close to the peak in these headline figures The absence of another upside surprise to UK inflation this month takes a bit of pressure off the Bank of England to move even more aggressively when it meets next week. Headline CPI came in a touch lower than both consensus and last month’s level, at 9.9%, and that’s largely because of a near-7% fall in petrol/diesel prices during August. We expect another 2% decline in next month’s figures. The introduction of a government cap on household energy prices means that we should now be fairly close to the peak in these headline figures. The fact that electricity/gas bills won’t be rising by around 80% in October and a further 30-40% in January means that the peak in CPI should be around 5 percentage points lower. With the government due to cap the average household energy bill at £2500, up from around £2000 now, we expect a peak in the region of 11% in October. That's compared to 16% in January which is what we’d forecasted before the support was announced. UK inflation now set to peak at around 11% after energy price support Source: Macrobond, ING forecasts   We’d expect inflation to stay around there until early next year, before cooling more quickly as energy base effects kick-in. We think it could be more-or-less back to the Bank of England’s 2% target by the end of next year, crazy as that currently seems. But what policymakers are more interested in is core inflation – or to put it more accurately, the more persistent parts of the inflation basket. Here the news is mixed. On a month-on-month price basis, the increases we saw in August do seem fairly broad-based. However, there are signs that ‘core goods’ inflation is easing off, linked perhaps to the rise in retailer inventory levels relative to sales. That’s a function of supply chains beginning to improve, and in some cases commodity prices having fallen, which is coinciding with reduced demand for goods. Higher inventories and lower sales reducing pressure on goods prices Source: Macrobond, ING   However, the Bank is more focused on wage growth, and as we noted yesterday, the worker shortages that have plagued the jobs market for several months now don’t appear to be resolving themselves very quickly. The BoE’s hawks are concerned that this will translate into persistent pressure on wage growth. We aren’t totally convinced this will be enough to swing the pendulum in favour of a 75 basis-point rate hike next week, despite both the ECB and Federal Reserve going down this path. It’s a pretty close call, not least because the hawks will be worried about the recent slide in sterling, and markets are closer to pricing a 75bp move than a 50. But for now, we think another 50bp move next week is the most likely outcome, followed by another such move in November. Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Every month a team of specialists in UK collects around 180,000 separate prices of over 700 items covering everything a typical family might buy, such as milk, bread and bananas. The results of analysis is published evry month as CPI report. The October reading report will be published on November 16. Previous data The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) rose by 8.8% in the 12 months to September 2022, up from 8.6% in August and returning to July’s recent high. The largest upward contributions to the annual CPIH inflation rate in September 2022 came from housing and household services (principally from electricity, gas and other fuels, and owner occupiers’ housing costs), food and non-alcoholic beverages, and transport (principally motor fuels). On a monthly basis, CPIH rose by 0.4% in September 2022, compared with a rise of 0.3% in September 2021. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 10.1% in the 12 months to September 2022, up from 9.9% in August and returning to July’s recent high. Rising food prices made the largest upward contribution to the change in both the CPIH and CPI annual inflation rates between August and September 2022. Inflation Returning to double-digit inflation will be difficult for ministers and the Bank of England. It shows that price increases have not yet reached their peak, despite the energy price guarantee that will reduce gas and electricity bills this winter. September's inflation figures highlight the severity of the UK's inflation crisis and comes as the country is going through a period of economic instability. The central bank will assess rising price pressures against the government's recent changes to unfunded tax cuts, which could help ease inflation in the coming months. Double-digit inflation is expected to continue. And it will increase again to the level of 10.6%. The monthly change is also forecast to increase by 1.2%. Source: investing.com The Outlook Inflation has been on an upward trajectory, and since May this year the pace has accelerated to double digits. Gross domestic product fell 0.2% from the second quarter, a slightly better outcome than the 0.5% decline feared. Overall in the third quarter, service sector output was flat, driven by a fall in consumer-facing services. Retail sales volumes in particular fell 1.9% in the period. The negative data adds to the country’s dampened economic outlook and already depressed consumer sentiment. Some model predicts the UK to enter a recession as early as this year. This is largely due to surges in inflation as the cost of living crisis impacts all demographic groups. The central bank of England expects GDP to continue falling through 2023 and into the first half of 2024. Expectatiosn Here are few reasons why we expect inflation in the UK to fall sharply from the middle of next year. First, the price of energy won’t continue to rise so quickly. The Government has introduced a scheme that caps energy bills for households and businesses for six months. Second, Bank Of England don’t expect the price of imported goods to rise so fast. That’s because some of the production difficulties businesses have faced are starting to ease. Third, there can be less demand for goods and services in the UK. That should mean the price of many things will not rise as quickly as they have done. Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/, investing.com

With the government fixing energy prices until at least April, it looks like October's 11.1% inflation rate could mark the peak. But it's unlikely to fall below double-digits until early next year, and the Bank of England is undoubtedly worried about inflation linked to the tight jobs market. Still, a pivot back to a 50bp hike in December looks likely The latest rise in household energy costs was enough to take UK inflation up to 11.1% in October. That’s a bit higher than was expected, and seems to be partly explained by another punchy 2% month-on-month increase in food prices, and a little bit of upside at the core level. All of this is marginally hawkish for the Bank of England in that its closely watched measure of ‘core services’ inflation, which excludes some volatile components and the impact of VAT changes, came in a few percentage points higher than they’d pencilled in. By our calculation, that sits slightly above 6% YoY, compared to a forecast of 5.7% by the BoE a couple of weeks ago.   As we noted yesterday, worker shortages are proving to be a persistent issue for firms, and that potentially points to stickier inflation rates for service-sector firms where pay is a key pricing input. Still, with hiring demand falling, we suspect we’re near the peak for wage growth. In fact – famous last words – it looks like UK headline inflation is at its peak too, or there or thereabouts. The fact that the government is effectively fixing electricity/gas unit prices below wholesale costs until next April means this is probably as high as it will get, though admittedly we expect headline rates to stay in double-digits until at least February next year. From there, we think there are compelling reasons to expect headline inflation to drift lower through the year, ending up closer to the Bank of England’s 2% target by early 2024. That’s especially true of goods categories, where lower input/shipping prices, stalling consumer demand and rising inventory levels not only point to lower inflation rates, but potentially also outright price falls in certain areas as retailers are forced to become more aggressive with discounting. The story, as we discussed earlier, is less clear-cut for services inflation. UK inflation in 2023 will depend a lot on how energy support evolves after April   Source: Macrobond, ING   The 2023 inflation outlook will also heavily depend on how the government adapts energy support next year. We’re still awaiting detail, but one possibility is that the majority of households switch back to paying the Ofgem regulated price from April. Based on our latest estimates using wholesale energy costs, the average household would pay £3300 in fiscal-year 2023 without any government support, compared to £2500 if prices remain capped. That would initially bump up inflation rates after April by roughly 2pp. While it’s tempting to say that higher headline inflation rates in that scenario would be hawkish for the Bank of England, in practice the opposite is probably true. Reduced energy support would amplify the UK recession that most, including ourselves, now expect. That would imply lower core inflation further down the line. With signs that inflation – both in core and headline terms – is close to or at a peak, and signs of recession mounting, we think the Bank of England is likely to pivot back to hiking in 50bp increments in December. Assuming another 25-50bp hike in February, we think the peak for Bank Rate is likely to be around 4%, a little below what markets are now pricing.   Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

A difficult year ahead for the global economy is set to hit some countries harder than others. Inflation was one of the biggest macroeconomic themes in 2022 and it is likely to remain so in 2023. Inflation also contributes to gross domestic product. In Great Britain, this indicator does not look optimistic, and its upcoming reading may turn out to be crucial for the economy this year. The Bank of England has said the country is on track for a prolonged recession, as households struggle to keep up with the soaring costs of food, energy and other basic essentials. Economists opinion Around four-fifths of economists say the UK will experience a much longer recession than its peers. They predict a difficult year 2023 and a potential return to normal by 2024. The UK will face one of the worst recessions and weakest recoveries in the G7 in the coming year, as households pay a heavy price for the government’s policy failings, some economists say. A large proportion of experts expect the UK to fall behind its peers, with gross domestic product already contracting and expected to continue to do so for most or all of 2023. The result is expected to be an increasingly steep decline in household income as higher credit costs add to the pain already caused by soaring food and energy prices. In its macro forecast for 2023, Goldman Sachs forecast a 1.2% decline in UK real GDP over the course of the year, well below all other major G-10 economies. ING pointed out that GDP figures have been somewhat discrepant recently, partly due to the Queen's funeral in September last year. But the economy is clearly weakening and ING expects a negative monthly result in November, after an artificial rebound in October after September's extra day off. Inflation Throughout the last year, the Bank of England has been raising interest rates in an attempt to cool down rampant inflation. This resulted in an increase in interest rates from 0.25% to 3.5%. The cost of borrowing in the UK has increased dramatically, affecting the ability of businesses to borrow money, but also the cost of mortgage payments for millions of Britons. As mortgage repayments increase, household disposable income decreases. Disposable income is also affected by inflation as the cost of goods and services increases. The Office for National Statistics reported last month that Britain's inflation rate was 10.7% in November, down from a 40-year high of 11.1%. GDP Economic activity has slowed sharply in recent months as consumers tighten their belts in response to soaring living costs, while business investment has slumped amid concerns over the strength of the UK and global economy. Last month, GDP showed that the UK economy contracted at a rate of -0.3% in the last quarter. This reinforces speculation that the UK is facing a long recession. When it comes to forecasts for quarterly or year-on-year results, there are no forecasts, but a contraction is to be expected given the prevailing economic conditions. The Pound (GBP) on FX market Based on the current outlook, investors can expect a difficult year ahead for the pound, with the value of sterling coming under significant pressure if the economies of its major counterparts continue to outperform the UK. During the last recession, the pound fell to 1.05 to the euro and 1.14 to the dollar. Cable (GBPUSD) was trading at 1.14 Source: investing.com

The UK is expected to be the only major industrialized country whose economy will contract this year. GDP forecast After UK economic output QoQ declined by 0.3% in Q3, many economists expected a similar contraction in Q4. The decline in the third quarter of last year was, according to the Office for National Statistics, partly due to an extra day off in September 2022 for the state funeral of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II as some businesses were closed or operating differently that day. The pause in economic activity on September 19, the day of the funeral, contributed to a monthly fall in GDP of 0.8% in September. This was followed by a rebound in October when the UK economy grew by 0.5% month on month. The economy grew a further 0.1% m/m in November, beating expectations of a 0.1% decline as the football world cup in Qatar boosted the UK services sector which grew by 0.2% compared to October. The customer services sector, which includes pubs and other food outlets, recorded an increase of 0.4%. Given the positive GDP growth in October and November and the fact that the World Cup lasted until December 18, it is possible that the UK narrowly avoided a decline in GDP in the fourth quarter, keeping the country from falling into recession. Source: investing.com Read next: Domination Of Fast Food Restaurants - McDonaldization| FXMAG.COM When comparing the 2022 quarter to the 2021 quarter, the UK economy is estimated to contract from 1.9% to 0.4% in the fourth quarter. GDP YoY Chart Source: investing.com UK in recession? According to the Office for Budget Responsibility, the UK is already in recession. Moreover, manufacturing fell by 0.2%, suggesting that while the fourth quarter as a whole may now show modest growth, the outlook for the future remains challenging, especially given that a reduction in service consumption is expected as the cost of living crisis intensifies this year. The trajectory of the central bank's aggressive monetary policy tightening appears to hold in the short term as inflation continued to hit double digits in November, albeit declining slightly from its 41-year high in October. Combined with the cost of living crisis caused by soaring food and energy prices, widening industrial action and unprecedented pressure on the nation's health service, consumers' purchasing power is unlikely to survive beyond the Christmas treat. The increased cost of credit is likely to put further downward pressure on activity. The Bank of England predicts that the British economy will experience at least four quarters of recession. The bank now predicts that the economy will contract by 1% from 3% and that inflation will fall back to 8% in June before dropping to 3% at the end of the year. The forecast comes as interest rates were raised to 4% from 3.5%, the highest level in more than 14 years. On Thursday, the Bank hinted that interest rates may be approaching a peak, indicating that it will only raise them if it sees signs that inflation will remain high. Bank governor Andrew Bailey said inflation appeared to be coming down but warned that there were still "big risks" that could still affect the economy. Higher interest rates are designed to encourage people to save more and spend less, helping to stop prices from rising as rapidly. Thursday's increase in the cost of credit is the tenth in a row and will add pressure on many households already struggling with the cost of living. The impact will be felt by borrowers through higher mortgage and credit costs, although this should also mean better returns for savers. Source: investing.com