index

The Swing Overview – Week 25

There was a rather quiet week in which the major world stock indices shook off previous losses and have been slowly rising since Monday. However, this is probably only a temporary correction of the current bearish trend.  The CNB Bank Board met for the last time in its old composition and raised the interest rate to 7%, the highest level since 1999. However, the koruna barely reacted to this increase. The reason is that the main risks are still in place and fear of a recession keeps the markets in a risk-off sentiment that benefits the US dollar.


Macroeconomic data

We had a bit of a quiet week when it comes to macroeconomic data in the US. Industrial production data was reported, which grew by 0.2% month-on-month in May, which is less than the growth seen in April, when production grew by 1.4%. While the growth is slower than expected, it is still growth, which is a positive thing.

 

In terms of labor market data, the number of jobless claims held s

Saxo Spotlight: What’s on investors and traders radars this week? - 27/06/22

GER 40 (DAX) And UK100 (FTSE 100) Morning Analysis - 30/03/22

Jason Sen Jason Sen 30.03.2022 16:14
Dax 40 JUNE finally reaches the target & strong resistance at 14750/850. Shorts need stops above 14950. We just held this level yesterday before a dip to 14780 this morning. FTSE 100 JUNE made another push higher but again there was a pullback in to the close. We have a series of candles on the daily chart with long upper wicks, indicating that there is strong selling pressure at the end of the day. This can be quite a negative signal, but of course does not tell us when the market will turn lower. Update daily by 06:00 GMT Today's Analysis. Dax finally tests strong resistance at 14750/850. Shorts need stops above 14950. A close above here tonight is a (surprising) buy signal targeting 15200/220, perhaps as far as 15400. Shorts at 14750/850 target 14600 & minor support at 14550. We should at least pause here on the downside. If we continue lower look for strong support at 14350/300 for some profit taking. FTSE higher again to the next target of 7510/30 with a high for the day just 11 ticks above. It is possible that we continue to crawl higher & ultimately reach the February high at 7610/30. However I feel the index is running out of steam. First support at 7470/60, with better support at 7430/20. A break lower meets strong support at 7360/40. A bounce from here looks likely, but longs need stops below 7320. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
Crypto Focus: Another Week of Solid Gains and Heavy Selling

Crypto Focus: Another Week of Solid Gains and Heavy Selling

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 01.04.2022 10:10
This week got off to a similar start as last, with buyers controlling momentum for the first four days of trade. Friday saw a heavy fade set up with half of the week’s gains cut on the top 10 and top 25 indexes after seeing just over 10% of gains to the week’s high. Some headlines have come out where Bitcoin has briefly moved back above 48K. Ethereum is set for an upgrade, and it’s being called a merge. This will be a joining of mainnet and the beacon chain proof-of-stake system. The ‘merge’ will mark the end of proof-of-work (PoW) for Ethereum in favour of the proof-of-stake (PoS) mechanism. This is due in the second quarter of 2022. Ronin hack, around 600 million was stolen from the Ronin network. A blockchain associated with the popular pay-to-earn game Axie Infinity. This was one of the largest hacks in Crypto history. Around 173,600 Ether and 25.5 stable coins were taken. Looking at this weekend and next week’s session, we are wondering if the current fade is short term or if something deeper is happening here. This is the third straight week of solid gains before heavy selling developed. Following on from the fade, Ripple is in an interesting position. Price failed at key resistance and has made a breakthrough the fast uptrend. Price bounced off the main uptrend but, for now, sits in no man’s land. A hold after the test of the main trend line could set up a new continuation higher, but if we see a break of the main trend line, this could suggest that a deeper correction could be underway. The post Crypto Focus: Another Week of Solid Gains and Heavy Selling appeared first on Eightcap.
COT Soft Commodities Speculators raise Cocoa bullish bets to 5-week high

COT Soft Commodities Speculators raise Cocoa bullish bets to 5-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 02.04.2022 16:40
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT soft commodities data is the recent rises in Cocoa futures bets. The speculative net position in the Cocoa futures rose this week by the largest one-week amount in the past seven weeks and rose for the third time in the past four weeks. This week’s boost brought the current net standing to the highest standing in the past five weeks at just under the +40,000 net position level. The Cocoa speculator position has been mostly in bullish territory over the past three years with small, short-lived pockets in bearish territory along the way. Cocoa saw its highest sentiment levels of the past three years in early 2020 with speculator positions reaching over +80,000 contracts before spec positions dropped sharply as the pandemic began. Speculator bets fell as low as -17,038 contracts in July 2020. Since then, Cocoa bets have fluctuated between small bearish levels all the way up to +40,000 contracts while the Cocoa price has similarly fluctuated but has maintained a bullish uptrend. This week’s +39,674 contracts level marks a 56.5 percent strength index score which equates to a slightly bullish level compared to the past three years. All of the soft commodities that saw higher bets this week were Sugar (5,785 contracts), Live Cattle (6,006 contracts), Lean Hogs (7,209 contracts), Cocoa (8,470 contracts) and Wheat (4,069 contracts). The soft commodity markets that saw lower speculator bets this week were Corn (-37,264 contracts), Coffee (-3,162 contracts), Soybeans (-12,167 contracts), Soybean Oil (-5,284 contracts), Soybean Meal (-6,999 contracts) and Cotton (-3,194 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-29-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,795,929 1 318,731 0 -360,162 99 41,431 73 Gold 574,521 39 257,596 70 -285,937 30 28,341 45 Silver 147,370 14 48,240 70 -61,372 39 13,132 19 Copper 203,692 29 30,581 64 -37,333 34 6,752 64 Palladium 6,720 1 -2,011 10 1,364 84 647 81 Platinum 61,807 25 14,001 22 -20,754 79 6,753 56 Natural Gas 1,100,690 4 -137,411 37 92,762 60 44,649 92 Brent 188,542 30 -25,220 69 21,609 29 3,611 58 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 755,139 34 206,469 81 -178,764 24 -27,705 24 Corn 1,515,106 24 482,092 92 -424,699 11 -57,393 10 Coffee 227,547 6 38,689 77 -42,092 27 3,403 12 Sugar 819,459 1 161,581 70 -202,758 30 41,177 59 Wheat 341,224 3 13,559 59 -9,435 32 -4,124 91   CORN Futures: The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 482,092 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -37,264 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 519,356 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.0 percent. CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.5 45.6 8.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.6 73.7 12.6 – Net Position: 482,092 -424,699 -57,393 – Gross Longs: 552,536 691,549 133,661 – Gross Shorts: 70,444 1,116,248 191,054 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.6 11.4 10.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.6 -7.1 -10.3   SUGAR Futures: The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 161,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,785 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 155,796 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent. SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.1 49.9 11.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.4 74.6 6.0 – Net Position: 161,581 -202,758 41,177 – Gross Longs: 222,154 408,820 90,668 – Gross Shorts: 60,573 611,578 49,491 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.8 29.7 58.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 17.9 -21.3 31.3   COFFEE Futures: The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 38,689 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,162 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,851 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent. COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.4 53.3 4.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.4 71.8 2.8 – Net Position: 38,689 -42,092 3,403 – Gross Longs: 50,991 121,208 9,798 – Gross Shorts: 12,302 163,300 6,395 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.7 26.9 11.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -23.0 26.1 -9.7   SOYBEANS Futures: The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 206,469 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,167 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 218,636 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent. SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.6 46.4 6.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.3 70.1 10.6 – Net Position: 206,469 -178,764 -27,705 – Gross Longs: 253,726 350,240 52,406 – Gross Shorts: 47,257 529,004 80,111 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 81.4 23.8 24.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.5 1.8 4.4   SOYBEAN OIL Futures: The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 87,284 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,284 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 92,568 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent. SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.6 49.1 9.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.0 79.3 5.2 – Net Position: 87,284 -102,850 15,566 – Gross Longs: 104,186 167,198 33,429 – Gross Shorts: 16,902 270,048 17,863 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 70.9 28.4 71.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.8 -11.1 8.3   SOYBEAN MEAL Futures: The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 121,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,999 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 128,784 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent. SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.3 41.8 12.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 3.6 79.8 4.8 – Net Position: 121,785 -150,719 28,934 – Gross Longs: 135,876 165,743 47,934 – Gross Shorts: 14,091 316,462 19,000 – Long to Short Ratio: 9.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 95.3 4.6 85.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.8 -7.8 11.4   LIVE CATTLE Futures: The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 52,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,006 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,739 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent. LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.4 41.7 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.3 55.4 13.8 – Net Position: 52,745 -42,343 -10,402 – Gross Longs: 109,521 129,222 32,487 – Gross Shorts: 56,776 171,565 42,889 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 24.4 73.1 61.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -20.7 22.6 8.5   LEAN HOGS Futures: The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 53,194 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,209 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,985 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent. LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 39.1 33.7 9.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.6 52.7 13.1 – Net Position: 53,194 -45,016 -8,178 – Gross Longs: 92,407 79,772 22,919 – Gross Shorts: 39,213 124,788 31,097 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.4 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 64.7 40.3 52.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.4 13.2 15.0   COTTON Futures: The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 84,160 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,194 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 87,354 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.3 percent. COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.2 36.1 9.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.2 78.8 3.2 – Net Position: 84,160 -97,258 13,098 – Gross Longs: 98,239 82,066 20,362 – Gross Shorts: 14,079 179,324 7,264 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.3 21.1 95.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.1 4.1 15.8   COCOA Futures: The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 39,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,470 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,204 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent. COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.7 47.4 7.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.3 67.5 3.7 – Net Position: 39,674 -48,448 8,774 – Gross Longs: 74,233 114,490 17,726 – Gross Shorts: 34,559 162,938 8,952 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.5 38.8 84.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.3 5.2 40.5   WHEAT Futures: The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 13,559 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,069 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,490 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent. WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.1 40.5 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.1 43.3 10.3 – Net Position: 13,559 -9,435 -4,124 – Gross Longs: 112,940 138,288 31,061 – Gross Shorts: 99,381 147,723 35,185 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.6 31.7 91.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.5 -18.9 0.2   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Energy Speculators pullback on #2 Heating Oil bullish bets for 3rd time in 4 weeks

COT Energy Speculators pullback on #2 Heating Oil bullish bets for 3rd time in 4 weeks

Invest Macro Invest Macro 02.04.2022 16:53
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT energy data is the recent decline in the Heating Oil futures bets. The speculative net position in the Heating Oil futures has dropped for two consecutive weeks and in three out of the past four weeks. The spec crude position has declined by a total of -9,420 contracts over the past four weeks and speculators have now pushed their current net positioning to the lowest level in six weeks. Heating Oil speculator positions are currently (+6,455 contracts) at the lower end of their range after averaging approximately +20,000 contracts each week over the whole of 2021. Heating Oil prices, meanwhile, have seen price surges (hitting multi-year highs) in the past few months due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine but did retrace lower this week with a decline by approximately -8.00 percent for the week at Friday’s close. The energy markets that saw higher speculator bets this week were Natural Gas (11,926 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (2,972 contracts). The energy markets that saw lower speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-21,238 contracts), Heating Oil (-9,228 contracts), Gasoline (-8,168 contracts) and Brent Crude Oil (-554 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-29-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,795,929 1 318,731 0 -360,162 99 41,431 73 Gold 574,521 39 257,596 70 -285,937 30 28,341 45 Silver 147,370 14 48,240 70 -61,372 39 13,132 19 Copper 203,692 29 30,581 64 -37,333 34 6,752 64 Palladium 6,720 1 -2,011 10 1,364 84 647 81 Platinum 61,807 25 14,001 22 -20,754 79 6,753 56 Natural Gas 1,100,690 4 -137,411 37 92,762 60 44,649 92 Brent 188,542 30 -25,220 69 21,609 29 3,611 58 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 755,139 34 206,469 81 -178,764 24 -27,705 24 Corn 1,515,106 24 482,092 92 -424,699 11 -57,393 10 Coffee 227,547 6 38,689 77 -42,092 27 3,403 12 Sugar 819,459 1 161,581 70 -202,758 30 41,177 59 Wheat 341,224 3 13,559 59 -9,435 32 -4,124 91   WTI Crude Oil Futures: The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 318,731 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,238 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 339,969 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent. WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.4 36.5 4.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.6 56.5 2.5 – Net Position: 318,731 -360,162 41,431 – Gross Longs: 420,097 654,965 85,767 – Gross Shorts: 101,366 1,015,127 44,336 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 99.4 73.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.8 12.7 -3.5   Brent Crude Oil Futures: The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -25,220 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -554 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,666 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.2 44.2 4.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.6 32.7 2.5 – Net Position: -25,220 21,609 3,611 – Gross Longs: 38,169 83,276 8,330 – Gross Shorts: 63,389 61,667 4,719 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.9 29.2 58.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.9 -1.1 -5.9   Natural Gas Futures: The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -137,411 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 11,926 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -149,337 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.0 percent. Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.6 42.7 6.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 35.1 34.3 2.2 – Net Position: -137,411 92,762 44,649 – Gross Longs: 249,135 470,232 68,418 – Gross Shorts: 386,546 377,470 23,769 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 2.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 37.3 60.1 92.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.8 -2.3 33.2   Gasoline Blendstock Futures: The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 40,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,168 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,370 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.1 53.0 7.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.0 69.7 4.9 – Net Position: 40,202 -47,775 7,573 – Gross Longs: 74,554 151,056 21,630 – Gross Shorts: 34,352 198,831 14,057 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 11.0 89.2 56.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.8 25.0 -15.4   #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures: The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 6,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,683 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.0 50.8 14.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.1 60.1 6.9 – Net Position: 6,455 -32,434 25,979 – Gross Longs: 59,340 177,626 50,210 – Gross Shorts: 52,885 210,060 24,231 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.9 36.7 88.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -10.3 23.6   Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures: The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -9,348 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,972 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,320 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent. Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 70.8 23.8 2.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 97.2 0.0 0.3 – Net Position: -9,348 8,415 933 – Gross Longs: 25,002 8,415 1,022 – Gross Shorts: 34,350 0 89 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 inf to 1 11.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 71.7 25.7 52.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 29.4 -30.9 11.7   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Metals Speculators pushing their Copper bullish bets higher in start of 2022

COT Metals Speculators pushing their Copper bullish bets higher in start of 2022

Invest Macro Invest Macro 02.04.2022 17:33
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT metals data is the recent gains in the Copper futures bets. The speculative net position in the Copper futures has risen for two consecutive weeks and three times in the past four weeks with a total increase by +8,488 contracts over the past four weeks. The recent strength in speculator bets has pushed the current speculator standing back over the +30,000 net contract level for the third time in the past seven weeks following fourteen weeks where spec bets remained below that threshold. Copper bets had hit an 81-week low in late December and had four weeks with speculator bets below the +10,000 contract level at that time. The new year has seen speculators start to increase their sentiment in favor of the red metal and Copper speculator position has now averaged over +23,500 net contracts each week since January 1st. This is down from the 2021 average of 33,688 weekly contracts but above the 2020 average of 20,214 weekly contracts. The Copper price has also had a bullish start to the year with Copper futures currently trading at 4.68 compared to the 4.46 price to start the year. The metals markets that saw higher speculator bets this week were Silver (293 contracts), Gold (9,564 contracts) and Copper (3,769 contracts). The metals markets that saw lower speculator bets this week were Platinum (-5,814 contracts) and Palladium (-803 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-29-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,795,929 1 318,731 0 -360,162 99 41,431 73 Gold 574,521 39 257,596 70 -285,937 30 28,341 45 Silver 147,370 14 48,240 70 -61,372 39 13,132 19 Copper 203,692 29 30,581 64 -37,333 34 6,752 64 Palladium 6,720 1 -2,011 10 1,364 84 647 81 Platinum 61,807 25 14,001 22 -20,754 79 6,753 56 Natural Gas 1,100,690 4 -137,411 37 92,762 60 44,649 92 Brent 188,542 30 -25,220 69 21,609 29 3,611 58 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 755,139 34 206,469 81 -178,764 24 -27,705 24 Corn 1,515,106 24 482,092 92 -424,699 11 -57,393 10 Coffee 227,547 6 38,689 77 -42,092 27 3,403 12 Sugar 819,459 1 161,581 70 -202,758 30 41,177 59 Wheat 341,224 3 13,559 59 -9,435 32 -4,124 91   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 257,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,564 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 248,032 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 57.0 23.2 8.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.2 72.9 3.6 – Net Position: 257,596 -285,937 28,341 – Gross Longs: 327,632 133,050 49,022 – Gross Shorts: 70,036 418,987 20,681 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.7 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.6 30.4 44.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.9 -14.3 8.8   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 48,240 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 293 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,947 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 44.7 30.3 17.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.0 71.9 8.2 – Net Position: 48,240 -61,372 13,132 – Gross Longs: 65,917 44,589 25,145 – Gross Shorts: 17,677 105,961 12,013 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.7 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 70.4 38.7 19.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 24.6 -24.6 2.0   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 30,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,769 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,812 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.5 40.8 8.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.5 59.1 5.5 – Net Position: 30,581 -37,333 6,752 – Gross Longs: 86,553 83,024 17,961 – Gross Shorts: 55,972 120,357 11,209 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 64.4 33.8 64.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.1 1.4 -11.4   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 14,001 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,814 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,815 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 47.9 32.0 15.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.2 65.6 4.9 – Net Position: 14,001 -20,754 6,753 – Gross Longs: 29,585 19,797 9,798 – Gross Shorts: 15,584 40,551 3,045 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.5 to 1 3.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 21.9 79.4 56.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.6 -6.8 12.1   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,011 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -803 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,208 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.3 53.3 21.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 53.2 33.0 12.2 – Net Position: -2,011 1,364 647 – Gross Longs: 1,564 3,581 1,468 – Gross Shorts: 3,575 2,217 821 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 10.1 84.2 81.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.8 2.6 31.8   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
10-Year Treasury Bonds Speculator bets surge to 177-week bearish high

10-Year Treasury Bonds Speculator bets surge to 177-week bearish high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 02.04.2022 17:53
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT bonds data is the surge in the 10-Year Bond bets this week. The speculative position in the 10-Year Bond saw a sharp jump in bearish bets this week (by -212,723 contracts) that marked the largest one-week bearish gain in the past two hundred and seventy-eight weeks, dating all the way back to November 29th of 2016. The 10-Year had shed bearish bets in the previous two weeks but has now seen higher bearish bets in four out of the past six weeks. This rising bearish sentiment has pushed the current net speculator standing (total of -476,557 contracts) to the most bearish level in the past one-hundred and seventy-seven weeks, dating back to November 6th of 2018 when positions were over -500,000 contracts. The 10-Year Bond price has also been dropping sharply and the 10-Year Bond yield rose to the highest level since April of 2019 above the 2.50 percent level this week (interest rates rise as bond prices fall). The outlook for Central Bank interest rate increases likely signals that there is much more weakness ahead for bonds (and gains in bond yields) and speculator sentiment will likely become more bearish. The bonds markets that saw higher speculator bets this week were Eurodollar (233,321 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year (17,885 contracts). The bonds markets that saw lower speculator bets this week were 2-Year Bond (-11,754 contracts), 10-Year Bond (-212,723 contracts), Long US Bond (-16,550 contracts), Fed Funds (-1,024 contracts), 5-Year Bond (-65,052 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (-25,035 contracts). Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-29-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index Eurodollar 10,936,414 43 -2,423,401 4 2,851,684 96 -428,283 10 FedFunds 2,130,653 81 -14,406 38 35,287 64 -20,881 7 2-Year 2,251,100 18 -59,202 70 161,882 55 -102,680 0 Long T-Bond 1,109,506 33 16,001 90 -3,123 19 -12,878 42 10-Year 3,669,449 41 -476,557 0 657,549 100 -180,992 36 5-Year 3,756,307 35 -361,390 20 598,864 86 -237,474 16   3-Month Eurodollars Futures: The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,423,401 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 233,321 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,656,722 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.2 percent. 3-Month Eurodollars Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.1 74.7 3.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.2 48.6 7.9 – Net Position: -2,423,401 2,851,684 -428,283 – Gross Longs: 447,292 8,166,593 431,468 – Gross Shorts: 2,870,693 5,314,909 859,751 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 4.5 95.9 10.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.5 2.2 2.2   30-Day Federal Funds Futures: The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -14,406 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,024 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,382 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent. 30-Day Federal Funds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.1 77.1 1.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.8 75.4 2.3 – Net Position: -14,406 35,287 -20,881 – Gross Longs: 172,450 1,642,231 27,817 – Gross Shorts: 186,856 1,606,944 48,698 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 37.8 64.2 6.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.6 4.7 -4.0   2-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -59,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11,754 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,448 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. 2-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.0 76.4 6.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.6 69.2 10.8 – Net Position: -59,202 161,882 -102,680 – Gross Longs: 314,664 1,719,719 140,420 – Gross Shorts: 373,866 1,557,837 243,100 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 70.3 55.2 0.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.4 -4.9 -15.1   5-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -361,390 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -65,052 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -296,338 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.8 percent. 5-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.2 82.6 7.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.9 66.6 13.5 – Net Position: -361,390 598,864 -237,474 – Gross Longs: 309,236 3,101,800 270,067 – Gross Shorts: 670,626 2,502,936 507,541 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 19.8 86.3 15.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -29.8 21.9 -2.7   10-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -476,557 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -212,723 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -263,834 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent. 10-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.5 80.2 9.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 20.5 62.2 13.9 – Net Position: -476,557 657,549 -180,992 – Gross Longs: 276,588 2,941,177 328,695 – Gross Shorts: 753,145 2,283,628 509,687 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 36.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -46.0 26.3 18.9   Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures: The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -73,436 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 17,885 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -91,321 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent. Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.7 80.7 9.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.2 65.2 18.9 – Net Position: -73,436 205,679 -132,243 – Gross Longs: 128,735 1,071,757 119,198 – Gross Shorts: 202,171 866,078 251,441 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 8.4 97.6 35.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -23.1 20.1 7.5   US Treasury Bonds Futures: The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 16,001 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -16,550 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,551 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent. US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.1 73.1 14.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.7 73.4 15.7 – Net Position: 16,001 -3,123 -12,878 – Gross Longs: 100,986 810,834 161,498 – Gross Shorts: 84,985 813,957 174,376 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 89.8 19.1 42.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.3 -14.7 4.1   Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures: The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -323,558 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -25,035 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -298,523 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.3 82.2 11.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.4 59.8 9.2 – Net Position: -323,558 288,970 34,588 – Gross Longs: 68,282 1,059,413 152,895 – Gross Shorts: 391,840 770,443 118,307 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.2 56.4 53.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.7 -4.7 2.2   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Currency Speculators continue Japanese Yen bearishness, push bearish bets to 20-week high

Currency Speculators continue Japanese Yen bearishness, push bearish bets to 20-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 02.04.2022 19:33
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data is the increase of bearish bets in the Japanese yen currency futures contracts. Japanese yen speculators raised their bearish bets for a third straight week this week and for the fourth time in the past five weeks. Over this five-week time-frame, yen bets have now dropped by a total of -38,944 contracts, going from -63,187 net positions on February 22nd to -102,131 net positions this week. This weakness in speculator sentiment has pushed the current Yen positioning to the most bearish level in the past twenty weeks, dating back to November 9th when net positions over over -105,000 contracts. Since the new year, yen speculator positions have averaged -70,432 weekly contracts, underscoring the sentiment weakness and compared to the 2021 weekly positions average of -44,182 contracts (positions averaged +17,100 weekly contracts in 2020). Japanese yen prices have also been extremely weak versus the other major currencies. Currently, the yen has recorded losses against all of the majors year-to-date and many majors currencies are trading at the highest levels since 2015 versus the yen. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the US Dollar Index (1,306 contracts), Australian dollar (1,583 contracts), Brazil real (1,052 contracts), Canadian dollar (3,405 contracts) and the Mexican peso (9,804 contracts). The currencies with declining bets this week were the Japanese yen (-23,649 contracts), Euro (-2,469 contracts), Swiss franc (-3,155 contracts), British pound sterling (-2,826 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-3,387 contracts), Russian ruble (-263 contracts) and Bitcoin (-271 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-29-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 53,967 76 30,941 79 -35,106 16 4,165 62 EUR 662,415 67 21,374 42 -47,348 62 25,974 17 GBP 224,365 54 -40,070 45 52,009 60 -11,939 31 JPY 239,698 82 -102,131 3 124,850 98 -22,719 7 CHF 44,327 20 -11,579 50 23,228 57 -11,649 29 CAD 147,421 28 -1,535 46 -15,518 48 17,053 64 AUD 143,007 39 -49,606 39 40,894 49 8,712 74 NZD 34,881 15 -867 70 -3 30 870 62 MXN 157,779 30 -8,247 24 3,286 74 4,961 64 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 78,894 79 42,616 92 -45,623 7 3,007 100 Bitcoin 12,024 66 -271 89 -411 0 682 28   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 30,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,635 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 83.3 2.8 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.0 67.8 2.8 – Net Position: 30,941 -35,106 4,165 – Gross Longs: 44,970 1,493 5,684 – Gross Shorts: 14,029 36,599 1,519 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.2 to 1 0.0 to 1 3.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 79.2 16.3 62.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.7 10.7 -21.9   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 21,374 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,469 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,843 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.2 55.0 12.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.0 62.1 8.2 – Net Position: 21,374 -47,348 25,974 – Gross Longs: 200,043 364,163 80,321 – Gross Shorts: 178,669 411,511 54,347 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 41.6 62.3 17.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.0 10.7 -19.0   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -40,070 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,826 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,244 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.6 73.3 9.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.5 50.1 15.2 – Net Position: -40,070 52,009 -11,939 – Gross Longs: 30,624 164,519 22,187 – Gross Shorts: 70,694 112,510 34,126 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.1 60.4 30.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -30.5 29.1 -14.2   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -102,131 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -23,649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,482 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.4 83.9 8.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 49.0 31.8 18.0 – Net Position: -102,131 124,850 -22,719 – Gross Longs: 15,274 201,190 20,392 – Gross Shorts: 117,405 76,340 43,111 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.5 98.2 7.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.7 19.1 -5.3   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -11,579 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,155 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,424 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.4 73.2 19.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.5 20.8 45.5 – Net Position: -11,579 23,228 -11,649 – Gross Longs: 3,292 32,430 8,522 – Gross Shorts: 14,871 9,202 20,171 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 3.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.7 57.0 29.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.3 4.9 -7.3   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,535 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,405 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,940 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.0 52.1 24.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.0 62.6 13.4 – Net Position: -1,535 -15,518 17,053 – Gross Longs: 32,429 76,738 36,771 – Gross Shorts: 33,964 92,256 19,718 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.2 48.3 63.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.3 -0.3 28.1   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -49,606 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,189 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.7 56.6 18.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 58.4 28.0 12.7 – Net Position: -49,606 40,894 8,712 – Gross Longs: 33,960 80,885 26,806 – Gross Shorts: 83,566 39,991 18,094 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.0 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.8 49.4 73.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 34.4 -42.4 48.0   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -867 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,387 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,520 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 44.4 44.5 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.9 44.5 8.0 – Net Position: -867 -3 870 – Gross Longs: 15,504 15,507 3,666 – Gross Shorts: 16,371 15,510 2,796 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.8 30.4 61.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 14.2 -18.5 40.7   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -8,247 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 9,804 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,051 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 47.6 46.9 4.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.8 44.8 1.7 – Net Position: -8,247 3,286 4,961 – Gross Longs: 75,081 73,952 7,577 – Gross Shorts: 83,328 70,666 2,616 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 2.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 23.8 74.2 64.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.3 6.4 8.0   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 42,616 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,052 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,564 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 67.3 26.2 6.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.2 84.0 2.3 – Net Position: 42,616 -45,623 3,007 – Gross Longs: 53,065 20,649 4,805 – Gross Shorts: 10,449 66,272 1,798 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.1 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 92.3 6.8 100.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 18.5 -18.9 6.4   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 7,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,806 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.6 60.6 2.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 0.5 94.7 4.7 – Net Position: 7,543 -7,150 -393 – Gross Longs: 7,658 12,679 593 – Gross Shorts: 115 19,829 986 – Long to Short Ratio: 66.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.2 69.1 23.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.6 16.7 -18.8   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -271 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -271 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 0 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.9 3.2 10.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 83.1 6.6 5.2 – Net Position: -271 -411 682 – Gross Longs: 9,722 383 1,302 – Gross Shorts: 9,993 794 620 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.5 8.5 28.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.2 -15.9 5.8   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 22/3/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 22/3/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 03.04.2022 21:41
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 22/3/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 1,355 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in long positions of 3,794 contracts and an increase in short positions of 2,539 contracts. There was a significant decrease in the total net positions of large speculators in the Canadian dollar last week, which fell by 22,690 contracts. At the same time, total net positions of large speculators moved from bullish to overall bearish sentiment for the first time in 10 weeks. The rise in total net positions of large speculators occurred only in the euro last week. There was a decline in total net positions in the other currencies monitored. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short.   Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Mar 22, 2022 29635 23843 -37244 -51189 2520 -78482 -4940 -8424 Mar 15, 2022 28380 18794 -29061 -44856 3653 -62340 17740 -5229 Mar 08, 2022 34044 58844 -12526 -78195 -12379 -55856 7646 -9710 Mar 01, 2022 34774 64939 -337 -78336 -14172 -68732 14140 -15248 Feb 22, 2022 36084 59306 -5809 -84080 -11551 -63187 9253 -10987 Feb 15, 2022 35386 47581 2237 -86694 -9333 -66162 12170 -9715   Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com The Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 22, 2022 658817 207051 183208 23843 -7193 5011 -38 5049 Bullish Mar 15, 2022 666010 202040 183246 18794 -72980 -40643 -593 -40050 Weak bullish Mar 08, 2022 738990 242683 183839 58844 19015 14298 20393 -6095 Weak bullish Mar 01, 2022 719975 228385 163446 64939 23293 14190 8557 5633 Bullish Feb 22, 2022 696682 214195 154889 59306 -5365 -3704 -15429 11725 Bullish Feb 15, 2022 702047 217899 170318 47581 1949 -1074 -9813 8739 Bullish         Total Change -41281 -11922 3077 -14999     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 23,843 contracts last week, up by 5,049 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 5,011 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 38 contracts. These data suggest bullish sentiment for the euro. Open interest fell by 7,193 contracts last week. This shows that the downward movement that occurred in the euro last week was not supported by the volume and is therefore a weak trend. The euro continues to move in a downtrend. It returned to a resistance level last week, which could be an opportunity to trade short.  Long-term resistance: 1.1120 – 1.1150. Support: 1.080-1.0850. The next support is at 1.0650-1.0700. The support can b also a value around 1.0900.   The British pound   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 22, 2022 195712 32753 69997 -37244 7389 311 8494 -8183 Bearish Mar 15, 2022 188323 32442 61503 -29061 -57989 -18540 -2005 -16535 Bearish Mar 08, 2022 246312 50982 63508 -12526 34443 3303 15492 -12189 Bearish Mar 01, 2022 211869 47679 48016 -337 23426 5430 -42 5472 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 188443 42249 48058 -5809 -6859 -7902 144 -8046 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 195302 50151 47914 2237 -2646 5442 -5340 10782 Bullish         Total Change -2236 -11956 16743 -28699     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached - 37,244 contracts, down by 8,183 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth of long positions by 311 contracts and the growth of short positions by 8,494 contracts. This suggests bearish sentiment as the total net positions of large speculators are negative while there has been a further decline. Open interest rose by 7,389 contracts last week. This means that the modest rise in the pound that occurred last week was supported by the volume and is therefore strong. However, the pound's growth was not significant. In addition, a pin bar formed on the weekly chart which would suggest more of a further weakening in line with sentiment. Long-term resistance: 1.3270 – 1.3300. Support is near 1.3000.     The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 22, 2022 127767 23747 74936 -51189 3246 -534 5799 -6333 Bearish Mar 15, 2022 124521 24281 69137 -44856 -72573 4760 -28579 33339 Weak bearish Mar 08, 2022 197094 19521 97716 -78195 7427 6801 6660 141 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 189667 12720 91056 -78336 -2912 1167 -4577 5744 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 192579 11553 95633 -84080 1 -139 -2753 2614 Weak bearish Feb 15, 2022 192578 11692 98386 -86694 -3825 -5631 -4678 -953 Bearish         Total Change -68636 6424 -28128 34552     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached - 51,189 contracts, down by 6,333 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 534 contracts and an increase in short positions by 5,799 contracts. This data suggests a continuation of bearish sentiment in the Australian dollar. Last week there was an increase in open interest of 3,246 contracts. This means that the upward move that occurred last week was supported by the volume and was therefore strong as new money flowed into the market. The Australian dollar strengthened strongly again last week and reached a significant resistance level. Long-term resistance: 0.7510-0.7560                                                                                                               Long-term support: 0.7370-0.7440.  A strong support is near 0.7160 – 0.7180.   The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 22, 2022 35256 17156 14636 2520 -3944 -4337 -3204 -1133 Weak bullish Mar 15, 2022 39200 21493 17840 3653 -14050 5718 -10314 16032 Bullish Mar 08, 2022 53250 15775 28154 -12379 2861 5290 3497 1793 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 50389 10485 24657 -14172 -6247 -6858 -4237 -2621 Bearish Feb 22, 2022 56636 17343 28894 -11551 -7469 -7580 -5362 -2218 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 64105 24923 34256 -9333 9228 7755 6722 1033 Weak bearish         Total Change -19621 -12 -12898 12886     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 2,520 contracts last week, down by 1,133 contracts from the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 4,337 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 3,204 contracts. This data suggests that there was a weakening of bullish sentiment in the New Zealand dollar last week. Open interest fell by 3,944 contracts last week. Therefore, the upward movement in the NZDUSD that occurred last week was not supported by the volume and therefore the move was weak. The NZDUSD strengthened strongly last week and reached the resistance level. Long-term resistance: 0.6980 – 0.7000 Long-term support: 0.6860-0.6920 and the next support is at 0.6730 – 0.6740.   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
How Will NEAR, BALANCER And RAMP Move In The Near Future?

How Will NEAR, BALANCER And RAMP Move In The Near Future?

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 08.04.2022 15:43
At this stage, it looks like we are set for a decline in the top 25 coins, snapping a three-week winning streak that has seen just over28% added in the last three weeks. So far, the top 25 index is down a touch over 6% late in the week. The major coins started the week with gains but found it hard to hold momentum. Selling really ramped up on Tuesday as risk markets reacted to further inflation worries. US inflation hit 40-year highs and set up a quick response from the Fed. Members said that policy adjustments would be made swiftly to try and rain in the worrying inflation. This set off the USD. The USD index quickly broke back above 99 and continued to push higher, trading up to 99.71. As traders moved quickly out of risk assets, this looks to have been a strong factor for sellers of crypto. Tuesday was the worst day so far in the week, with over 5% taken off the top 10 and 6.5% taken off the top 25. Sellers tried to get another move going on Thursday but were rejected by buyers. Friday’s trade saw a fightback, but many coins share a similar pattern of a counter-rally after a trend break. Friday’s session gave us a few surprises, with NEAR and BALANCER both trading over 15% higher during the session. RAMP was another strong mover, adding over 30% during Friday’s session. Looking to next week, attention will have to remain on the inflation and policy situation of the Fed as it looks to be having an influence. We are also keen on seeing if some of Friday’s counter-rallies can become something more. This week, due to some mixed-signal price action-wise, we’re going to break down what we see on the daily top 25 index chart. Yes, with Eightcap you can trade an index CFD over the top 25 coins. Let’s not what we’re watching. Clearly, we can see the descending triangle pattern that buyers broke out of, which also broke the long-term downtrend. All nice bullish signs so far. We’ve seen the first leg up that could be seen as a stage one. In the short term, we’ve seen resistance and supply develop, which has stopped the trend for now. The leg lower has beaten the fast uptrend, but it’s started to find demand and support off the 50 and 38.2fib points, which show a healthy retracement area. Where does that leave us? With mixed price signals in the short and medium-term, we want to see if buyers can maintain the fib points and make a new move to test resistance. A break of resistance and the trend should be back on. A fail at or below resistance that sets up a new lower high is a warning and could signal further seller momentum to come. If price moves back below the 50 or 61.8%, we would start to worry about the buyer’s control on the current leg high. The post Crypto Focus: Top 25 Coins Set for a Decline? appeared first on Eightcap.
Commodities Speculators push their Sugar bullish bets to 15-week high

Commodities Speculators push their Sugar bullish bets to 15-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 09.04.2022 12:55
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT soft commodities data is the jump in this week’s Sugar futures bets. The speculative net position in the Sugar futures rose by the largest one-week amount (+26,966 contracts) over the last four weeks and bullish bets have gained for two straight weeks. Sugar positions have also risen in six out of the past seven weeks with a total gain of +113,984 contracts over that time-frame. This recent speculator strength has pushed the current net standing (+188,547 contracts) to the highest level in the last fifteen weeks, dating back to December 21st. The strength index for Sugar is not yet in an extreme bullish score with the current score at 75.4 percent but the strength score has seen a change of 23.3 percent over the past six weeks (speculator strength index is current speculator standing compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme). Sugar prices have been on a renewed uptrend (after a drop under the 200-day moving average in January to early March) and closed this week at the highest level since November. The soft commodities that saw higher bets this week were Corn (4,981 contracts), Sugar (26,966 contracts), Coffee (5,122 contracts), Soybean Oil (2,212 contracts), Soybean Meal (1,993 contracts), Cotton (150 contracts) and Wheat (6,392 contracts). The market that had declining speculator bets were Soybeans (-7,545 contracts), Live Cattle (-3,678 contracts), Lean Hogs (-7,694 contracts) and Cocoa (-3,040 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Apr-05-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,823,366 5 308,594 0 -355,435 100 46,841 81 Gold 560,666 36 245,541 66 -278,758 33 33,217 58 Silver 148,526 15 45,034 67 -60,036 40 15,002 30 Copper 216,157 38 36,142 68 -43,039 30 6,897 65 Palladium 6,642 1 -2,041 10 1,443 85 598 78 Platinum 60,983 23 11,290 18 -17,905 83 6,615 54 Natural Gas 1,169,620 19 -136,611 38 92,647 60 43,964 90 Brent 189,394 31 -29,712 61 26,537 37 3,175 52 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 756,785 35 198,924 79 -170,882 26 -28,042 24 Corn 1,556,206 30 487,073 92 -424,154 12 -62,919 7 Coffee 226,730 5 43,811 80 -48,758 22 4,947 23 Sugar 859,871 10 188,547 75 -240,107 23 51,560 72 Wheat 344,615 5 19,951 64 -15,332 26 -4,619 89   CORN Futures: The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 487,073 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,981 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 482,092 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent. CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.9 45.4 9.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.6 72.7 13.0 – Net Position: 487,073 -424,154 -62,919 – Gross Longs: 558,043 706,995 139,773 – Gross Shorts: 70,970 1,131,149 202,692 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 92.3 11.5 6.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.5 -1.9 -12.7   SUGAR Futures: The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 188,547 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 26,966 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 161,581 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent. SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.3 47.1 12.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.3 75.0 6.1 – Net Position: 188,547 -240,107 51,560 – Gross Longs: 243,133 404,728 103,751 – Gross Shorts: 54,586 644,835 52,191 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 75.4 22.6 71.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 23.3 -27.4 38.9   COFFEE Futures: The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 43,811 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,689 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent. COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.3 51.3 4.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.0 72.9 2.5 – Net Position: 43,811 -48,758 4,947 – Gross Longs: 52,923 116,418 10,552 – Gross Shorts: 9,112 165,176 5,605 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.8 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 80.4 21.7 22.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.4 18.7 1.6   SOYBEANS Futures: The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 198,924 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,545 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 206,469 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent. SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.2 46.4 7.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.9 69.0 10.8 – Net Position: 198,924 -170,882 -28,042 – Gross Longs: 243,805 351,388 53,363 – Gross Shorts: 44,881 522,270 81,405 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 79.5 25.6 23.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.8 6.1 2.8   SOYBEAN OIL Futures: The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 89,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,212 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 87,284 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent. SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.5 48.0 9.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.9 78.1 5.3 – Net Position: 89,496 -105,183 15,687 – Gross Longs: 106,458 167,920 34,352 – Gross Shorts: 16,962 273,103 18,665 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 72.1 27.2 72.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 3.5 -4.0 5.6   SOYBEAN MEAL Futures: The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 123,778 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,993 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 121,785 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent. SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.0 41.1 12.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 3.0 79.7 4.8 – Net Position: 123,778 -154,006 30,228 – Gross Longs: 135,750 164,226 49,339 – Gross Shorts: 11,972 318,232 19,111 – Long to Short Ratio: 11.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 96.4 2.9 91.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.5 -8.1 16.1   LIVE CATTLE Futures: The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 49,067 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,678 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,745 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent. LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.2 42.5 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.0 56.0 13.3 – Net Position: 49,067 -40,653 -8,414 – Gross Longs: 106,515 128,739 31,770 – Gross Shorts: 57,448 169,392 40,184 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 21.9 74.5 66.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.3 22.0 16.0   LEAN HOGS Futures: The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 45,500 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,694 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,194 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 38.1 34.8 9.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.2 51.7 12.8 – Net Position: 45,500 -38,745 -6,755 – Gross Longs: 87,387 80,016 22,547 – Gross Shorts: 41,887 118,761 29,302 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.3 47.7 59.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.8 20.0 20.4   COTTON Futures: The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 84,310 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 150 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 84,160 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent. COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.5 34.9 9.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.4 76.9 3.2 – Net Position: 84,310 -97,775 13,465 – Gross Longs: 99,230 81,510 20,990 – Gross Shorts: 14,920 179,285 7,525 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.4 20.8 97.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.8 2.3 12.7   COCOA Futures: The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 36,634 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,040 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,674 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent. COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.6 47.1 6.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.0 65.5 3.9 – Net Position: 36,634 -43,201 6,567 – Gross Longs: 71,790 110,528 15,763 – Gross Shorts: 35,156 153,729 9,196 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.5 43.9 63.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.2 4.7 4.0   WHEAT Futures: The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 19,951 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 6,392 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,559 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent. WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.2 38.2 9.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.4 42.6 10.6 – Net Position: 19,951 -15,332 -4,619 – Gross Longs: 114,287 131,605 31,901 – Gross Shorts: 94,336 146,937 36,520 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 64.0 25.9 88.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.3 -25.3 11.2   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Metals Speculators cool off their Gold bullish bets to 6-week low

COT Metals Speculators cool off their Gold bullish bets to 6-week low

Invest Macro Invest Macro 09.04.2022 19:02
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Each Commodity Share Percent of All Commodities Open Interest Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT metals data is the recent decline in the Gold futures bets. The speculative net position in the Gold futures dropped this week for the third time in the past four weeks and by a total of -28,847 contracts over that time-frame. Gold spec positions had previously been on a strong run of rising weekly bullish bets and had increased for five straight weeks from February 8th to March 8th with a total gain of +102,246 contracts over that period. That speculator sentiment strength brought positions to a sixty-one week high with a net position of +274,388 contracts and coincided with the Gold price surging above the $2,050 level. Since then, bullish bets have cooled off while the Gold price has also taken a breather and fallen back into a trading range between approximately $1,920 and $1,960 where it currently resides. Overall, the metals market that rose this week was just Copper (5,561 contracts) while Gold (-12,055 contracts), Platinum (-2,711 contracts), Palladium (-30 contracts) and Silver (-3,206 contracts) all had lower bets on the week. Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Apr-05-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,823,366 5 308,594 0 -355,435 100 46,841 81 Gold 560,666 36 245,541 66 -278,758 33 33,217 58 Silver 148,526 15 45,034 67 -60,036 40 15,002 30 Copper 216,157 38 36,142 68 -43,039 30 6,897 65 Palladium 6,642 1 -2,041 10 1,443 85 598 78 Platinum 60,983 23 11,290 18 -17,905 83 6,615 54 Natural Gas 1,169,620 19 -136,611 38 92,647 60 43,964 90 Brent 189,394 31 -29,712 61 26,537 37 3,175 52 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 756,785 35 198,924 79 -170,882 26 -28,042 24 Corn 1,556,206 30 487,073 92 -424,154 12 -62,919 7 Coffee 226,730 5 43,811 80 -48,758 22 4,947 23 Sugar 859,871 10 188,547 75 -240,107 23 51,560 72 Wheat 344,615 5 19,951 64 -15,332 26 -4,619 89   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 245,541 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -12,055 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 257,596 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 57.9 22.2 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.1 71.9 3.3 – Net Position: 245,541 -278,758 33,217 – Gross Longs: 324,570 124,506 51,778 – Gross Shorts: 79,029 403,264 18,561 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.1 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.8 32.6 58.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.8 -2.8 18.9   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 45,034 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,206 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,240 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.7 30.9 17.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.4 71.3 7.6 – Net Position: 45,034 -60,036 15,002 – Gross Longs: 64,936 45,922 26,307 – Gross Shorts: 19,902 105,958 11,305 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.3 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.3 40.0 30.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 14.7 -16.0 9.2   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 36,142 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,561 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,581 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.0 38.0 8.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.3 57.9 5.4 – Net Position: 36,142 -43,039 6,897 – Gross Longs: 90,779 82,054 18,675 – Gross Shorts: 54,637 125,093 11,778 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.4 29.9 65.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.6 -5.7 -13.2   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 11,290 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,711 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,001 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 47.3 32.6 16.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.8 62.0 5.6 – Net Position: 11,290 -17,905 6,615 – Gross Longs: 28,827 19,894 10,054 – Gross Shorts: 17,537 37,799 3,439 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 18.0 83.4 54.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.1 7.1 17.7   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,041 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -30 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,011 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.7 52.5 20.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 56.4 30.7 11.5 – Net Position: -2,041 1,443 598 – Gross Longs: 1,704 3,484 1,365 – Gross Shorts: 3,745 2,041 767 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 9.9 84.7 78.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.5 1.9 16.6   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Currency Speculators boost Australian Dollar bets to best level in 37-weeks

COT Currency Speculators boost Australian Dollar bets to best level in 37-weeks

Invest Macro Invest Macro 09.04.2022 20:09
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the further retreat of bearish bets in the Australian currency futures contracts. Australian dollar speculators reduced their bearish bets for a second straight week this week and for the sixth time in the past seven weeks. Over this seven-week time-frame, Aussie bets have improved by a total of +49,181 contracts, going from -86,694 net positions on February 15th to -37,513 net positions this week. This improvement in speculator sentiment has brought the current net position (-37,513 contracts) to the least bearish level of the past thirty-seven weeks, dating back to July 20th when the net position totaled -35,690 contracts. The speculator level for the Aussie has not registered a bullish or positive net weekly position since May 18th of 2021, a span of forty-seven weeks. Despite the bearish level of speculators, the AUD has been one of the stronger currencies over the past month and has been helped along by the outlook that the Reserve Bank of Australia will start to raise interest rates for the first time since 2010. The currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the US Dollar Index (911 contracts), Australian dollar (12,093 contracts), Mexican peso (9,157 contracts), Euro (5,996 contracts), Brazil real (2,910 contracts), Canadian dollar (8,458 contracts) and Bitcoin (27 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Japanese yen (-1,698 contracts), Swiss franc (-814 contracts), British pound sterling (-1,688 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-702 contracts) and the Russian ruble (-263 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each currency where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Apr-05-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 49,049 65 31,852 81 -35,194 16 3,342 53 EUR 663,589 67 27,370 43 -49,617 62 22,247 11 GBP 238,266 63 -41,758 44 57,779 64 -16,021 22 JPY 242,217 83 -103,829 2 125,224 98 -21,395 10 CHF 40,005 14 -12,393 48 20,743 54 -8,350 39 CAD 157,562 35 6,923 54 -30,414 38 23,491 77 AUD 148,898 44 -37,513 50 22,332 36 15,181 89 NZD 35,788 16 -1,569 69 171 31 1,398 68 MXN 172,712 36 910 28 -5,778 70 4,868 64 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 65,870 61 45,526 95 -47,961 4 2,435 93 Bitcoin 11,374 61 -244 89 -397 0 641 28   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 31,852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 911 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,941 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 83.7 2.9 10.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.7 74.6 3.9 – Net Position: 31,852 -35,194 3,342 – Gross Longs: 41,038 1,417 5,243 – Gross Shorts: 9,186 36,611 1,901 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.5 to 1 0.0 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 80.7 16.1 53.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.3 10.3 -21.2   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 27,370 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,996 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,374 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.3 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.8 53.8 11.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.7 61.3 8.4 – Net Position: 27,370 -49,617 22,247 – Gross Longs: 210,914 357,140 77,946 – Gross Shorts: 183,544 406,757 55,699 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.4 61.7 11.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.8 13.7 -27.3   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -41,758 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,688 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,070 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.1 73.6 8.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.6 49.4 15.1 – Net Position: -41,758 57,779 -16,021 – Gross Longs: 35,873 175,429 19,923 – Gross Shorts: 77,631 117,650 35,944 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.9 63.9 22.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -25.9 28.2 -24.4   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -103,829 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,698 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,131 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.0 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.0 84.7 7.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.9 33.0 16.8 – Net Position: -103,829 125,224 -21,395 – Gross Longs: 14,583 205,209 19,190 – Gross Shorts: 118,412 79,985 40,585 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.4 98.4 10.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -25.7 21.2 -4.3   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -12,393 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -814 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,579 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.6 73.5 21.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 35.6 21.6 42.6 – Net Position: -12,393 20,743 -8,350 – Gross Longs: 1,860 29,392 8,694 – Gross Shorts: 14,253 8,649 17,044 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 3.4 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 48.3 54.2 38.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.5 1.8 -0.7   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 6,923 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,458 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,535 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.7 49.4 26.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.3 68.7 11.1 – Net Position: 6,923 -30,414 23,491 – Gross Longs: 37,325 77,906 40,906 – Gross Shorts: 30,402 108,320 17,415 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 54.4 37.6 76.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.3 -11.7 37.0   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -37,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,093 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,606 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.4 53.9 21.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.6 38.9 11.5 – Net Position: -37,513 22,332 15,181 – Gross Longs: 34,871 80,207 32,313 – Gross Shorts: 72,384 57,875 17,132 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.1 35.5 89.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 43.2 -55.1 66.3   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,569 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -867 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.1 44.3 12.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 47.5 43.8 8.1 – Net Position: -1,569 171 1,398 – Gross Longs: 15,428 15,863 4,311 – Gross Shorts: 16,997 15,692 2,913 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.6 30.7 67.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.7 -21.2 43.0   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 910 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,157 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,247 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 45.6 49.6 4.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.1 53.0 1.6 – Net Position: 910 -5,778 4,868 – Gross Longs: 78,728 85,690 7,698 – Gross Shorts: 77,818 91,468 2,830 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.7 70.4 63.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.8 6.4 2.8   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 45,526 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,910 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,616 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 76.7 16.4 6.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.6 89.2 2.9 – Net Position: 45,526 -47,961 2,435 – Gross Longs: 50,518 10,795 4,319 – Gross Shorts: 4,992 58,756 1,884 – Long to Short Ratio: 10.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 95.1 4.5 93.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.7 -20.4 -2.4   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 7,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,806 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.6 60.6 2.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 0.5 94.7 4.7 – Net Position: 7,543 -7,150 -393 – Gross Longs: 7,658 12,679 593 – Gross Shorts: 115 19,829 986 – Long to Short Ratio: 66.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.2 69.1 23.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.6 16.7 -18.8   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -244 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 27 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -271 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.5 3.8 11.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 79.6 7.3 6.0 – Net Position: -244 -397 641 – Gross Longs: 8,811 437 1,322 – Gross Shorts: 9,055 834 681 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 89.1 9.6 27.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.8 -11.3 2.3   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 29/3/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 29/3/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 11.04.2022 06:40
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 29/3/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 1,306 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in long positions by 1,409 contracts and an increase in short positions by 103 contracts. Growth in total net positions occurred last week in the euro, the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar. There were declines in the total net positions of large speculators in the British pound, the New Zealand dollar, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. In the Japanese yen, in particular, the decline in total net positions of large speculators has been very strong. Over the past five weeks, total net positions have decreased by 38 944 contracts. The total net positions of large speculators are the most bearish for the yen in the last 20 weeks. This may be due to the Bank of Japan's continuing dovish monetary policy to support Japanese economic growth. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short.   Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Mar 29, 2022 30941 21374 -40070 -49606 -867 -102131 1535 -11579 Mar 22, 2022 29635 23843 -37244 -51189 2520 -78482 -4940 -8424 Mar 15, 2022 28380 18794 -29061 -44856 3653 -62340 17740 -5229 Mar 08, 2022 34044 58844 -12526 -78195 -12379 -55856 7646 -9710 Mar 01, 2022 34774 64939 -337 -78336 -14172 -68732 14140 -15248 Feb 22, 2022 36084 59306 -5809 -84080 -11551 -63187 9253 -10987   Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com   The Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 29, 2022 662415 200043 178669 21374 3598 -7008 -4539 2469 Weak bullish Mar 22, 2022 658817 207051 183208 23843 -7193 5011 -38 5049 Bullish Mar 15, 2022 666010 202040 183246 18794 -72980 -40643 -593 -40050 Weak bullish Mar 08, 2022 738990 242683 183839 58844 19015 14298 20393 -6095 Weak bullish Mar 01, 2022 719975 228385 163446 64939 23293 14190 8557 5633 Bullish Feb 22, 2022 696682 214195 154889 59306 -5365 -3704 -15429 11725 Bullish         Total Change -39632 -17856 8351 -26207     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 21,374 contracts last week, down by 2,469 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 7,008 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 4,539 contracts. This data indicates weak bullish sentiment for the euro. Open interest has risen by 3 598 contracts in the last week. This shows that the upward movement that occurred in the euro last week was supported by a volume and is therefore strong price action. The euro continues to move in a downtrend. Last week it returned to the resistance level from which it bounced downwards. Long-term resistance: 1.1160 – 1.1180 Support: 1.0950-1.0980 and the next support is at 1.080-1.0850.   The British pound   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 29, 2022 224365 30624 70694 -40070 28653 -2129 697 -2826 Bearish Mar 22, 2022 195712 32753 69997 -37244 7389 311 8494 -8183 Bearish Mar 15, 2022 188323 32442 61503 -29061 -57989 -18540 -2005 -16535 Bearish Mar 08, 2022 246312 50982 63508 -12526 34443 3303 15492 -12189 Bearish Mar 01, 2022 211869 47679 48016 -337 23426 5430 -42 5472 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 188443 42249 48058 -5809 -6859 -7902 144 -8046 Bearish         Total Change 29063 -19527 22780 -42307     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached - 37,244 contracts, down by 8,183 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth of long positions by 311 contracts and the growth of short positions by 8,494 contracts. This suggests bearish sentiment as the total net positions of large speculators are negative while there has been a further decline. Open interest rose by 7,389 contracts last week. This means that the modest rise in the pound that occurred last week was supported by the volume and is therefore strong. However, the pound's growth was not significant. In addition, a pin bar formed on the weekly chart which would suggest more of a further weakening in line with sentiment. Long-term resistance: 1.3270 – 1.3300. Support is near 1.3000.     The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 29, 2022 143007 33960 83566 -49606 15240 10213 8630 1583 Weak bearish Mar 22, 2022 127767 23747 74936 -51189 3246 -534 5799 -6333 Bearish Mar 15, 2022 124521 24281 69137 -44856 -72573 4760 -28579 33339 Weak bearish Mar 08, 2022 197094 19521 97716 -78195 7427 6801 6660 141 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 189667 12720 91056 -78336 -2912 1167 -4577 5744 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 192579 11553 95633 -84080 1 -139 -2753 2614 Weak bearish         Total change -49571 22268 -14820 37088     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 49,606 contracts last week, having grown by 1,583 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth of long positions by 10,213 contracts and the growth of short positions by 8,630 contracts. This data suggests weak bearish sentiment for the Australian dollar as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, but they increased last week. There was an increase in open interest of 15,240 contracts last week. This means that the sideways movement that occurred last week was supported by the volume and was therefore strong as new money flowed into the market. The Australian dollar moved near a strong resistance level last week. If it is validly broken then a further bullish movement may be seen.  Long-term resistance: 0.7510-0.7560                                                                                                              Long-term support: 0.7370-0.7440.  A next support is near 0.7160 – 0.7180.   The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 29, 2022 34881 15504 16371 -867 -375 -1652 1735 -3387 Bearish Mar 22, 2022 35256 17156 14636 2520 -3944 -4337 -3204 -1133 Weak bullish Mar 15, 2022 39200 21493 17840 3653 -14050 5718 -10314 16032 Bullish Mar 08, 2022 53250 15775 28154 -12379 2861 5290 3497 1793 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 50389 10485 24657 -14172 -6247 -6858 -4237 -2621 Bearish Feb 22, 2022 56636 17343 28894 -11551 -7469 -7580 -5362 -2218 Bearish Mar 29, 2022 34881 15504 16371 -867 -375 -1652 1735 -3387 Bearish         Total Change -29224 -9419 -17885 8466     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week amounted to - 867 contracts, having fallen by 3,387 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 1,652 contracts and an increase in short positions by 1,735 contracts. This data suggests that there was a bearish sentiment for the New Zealand dollar over the past week as the total net positions of large speculators got negative. Open interest fell by 375 contracts last week.  Therefore, the sideways move in the NZDUSD that occurred last week was not supported by a volume and therefore the move was weak. The NZDUSD strengthened strongly last week and got to the resistance level. Long-term resistance: 0.6980 – 0.7000 Long-term support: 0.6860-0.6880 and the next support is at 0.6730 – 0.6740.   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
The Swing Overview - Week 14 2022

The Swing Overview - Week 14 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 11.04.2022 06:41
The Swing Overview - Week 14 Equity indices weakened last week on news of rising interest rates and a tightening of the US economy. The euro is also weakening not only because it is under pressure from the ongoing war in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia, but also from the uncertainty of the upcoming French presidential election. The outbreak of the coronavirus in China has fuelled negative sentiment in oil, where the market fears an excess of supply over demand. The US dollar was the clear winner in this environment.  The USD index strengthens along with US bond yields According to the US Fed meeting minutes released on Wednesday, the Fed is prepared to reduce its balance sheet by the USD 95 billion per month from May this year.  In addition, the Fed is ready to raise interest rates at a pace of 0.50%. Thus, at the next meeting, which will take place in May, we can expect a rate increase from the current 0.50% to 1.00%. This option is already included in asset prices.     As a result of this the yields on US 10-year bonds continued to rise and has already reached 2.64%. The US dollar in particular is benefiting from this development and is approaching the level 100. Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields and USD index on the daily chart   Equity indices under pressure from high interest rates The prospect of aggressive interest rate hikes is having a negative impact on investor sentiment, particularly for growth stocks. However, it is positive for financial sector stocks. High yields on the US bonds are attractive to investors, who will thus prefer this yield to, for example, investments in gold, which does not yield any interest. Figure 2: SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   The US SP 500 index is currently moving in a downward correction, which is shown on the H4 chart. Prices could move in a downward channel that is formed by a lower high and a lower low. The SP 500 according to the H4 chart is below the SMA 100 moving average, which also indicates bearish tendencies.   The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is in the range of 4,513 - 4,520. The next resistance is around 4,583 - 4,600. A support is at 4 450 - 4 455.   German DAX index A declining channel has also formed for the DAX index. The price is below the SMA 100 moving average on the H4 chart, where at the same time the SMA 100 got below the EMA 50, which is a strong bearish signal. Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart According to the H4 chart, the nearest resistance is in the range between 14,340 - 14,370. There is also a confluence with the moving average EMA 50 here. The next resistance is at 14,590 - 14,630. A support is at 14,030 - 14,100.   The DAX is influenced by the upcoming French presidential election, the outcome of which could have a major impact on the European economy.    The euro remains in a downtrend The Euro is negatively affected by the sanctions against Russia, which will also have a negative impact on the European economy. In addition, uncertainty has arisen regarding the French presidential election. Although the victory of the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen over the defending President Emmanuel Macron is still unlikely, the polls suggest that it is within the statistical margin of error. And this makes markets nervous.   A Le Pen victory would be bad for the economy and France's overall international image. It would weaken the European Union. That's why this news sent the euro below 1.09. The first round of elections will be held on Sunday April 10 and the second round on April 24, 2022.    Figure 4: EURUSD on H4 and daily chart. The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is at 1.0930 - 1.0950. The significant resistance according to the daily chart is 1.1160 - 1.1190.  A support is at 1.080 - 1.0850.   According to the technical analysis, the euro is in a downtrend, but as it is currently at significant support levels, any short speculation could be considered only after the current support is broken and retested to validate the break.   The crude oil continues to descend The oil prices fell for a third straight day after the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) announced it would release 60 million barrels of its members' reserves to the open market, adding to an earlier reserve release of 180 million barrels announced by the United States. In total, 240 million barrels would be delivered to the market over six months, resulting in a net inflow of 1.33 million barrels a day.   That would be more than triple the monthly production additions of 400,000 barrels per day by the world's oil producers under the OPEC+ alliance led by Saudi Arabia and controlled by Russia.   Adding to the negative sentiment on oil was a coronavirus outbreak in Shanghai, the largest in two years, which forced a more than week-long closure of China's second-largest city. This raises concerns about demand among oil consumers in the Chinese economy, which has a significant impact on prices. Figure 5: Brent crude oil on the H4 and daily charts. Brent crude oil is thus approaching support, which according to the H4 chart is at around USD 97-99 per barrel. The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is at the price of USD 106 per barrel. The more significant resistance is at USD 111-112 per barrel of the Brent crude.   
The Swing Overview - Week 13 2022

The Swing Overview - Week 13 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 11.04.2022 06:41
The Swing Overview - Week 13 Equity indices closed the first quarter of 2022 in a loss under the influence of geopolitical tensions. The Czech koruna strengthened as a result of the CNB raising interest rates to 5%, the highest since 2001. The US supports the oil market by releasing 180 million barrels from its strategic reserves. War in Ukraine   The war in Ukraine has been going on for more than a month and there is still no end in sight. Ongoing diplomatic negotiations have not led to a result yet. Meanwhile, Russian President Putin has decided that European countries will pay for Russian gas in rubles. This has been described as blackmailing from Europe's point of view and is not in line with the gas supply contracts that have been concluded. A way around this is to open an account with Gazprombank where the gas can be paid for in euros. Geopolitical tensions are therefore still ongoing and are having a negative effect on stock markets.   Equity indices have had their worst quarter since 2020 US and European equities posted their biggest quarterly loss since the beginning of 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic broke out and the global economy was in crisis. Portfolio rebalancing at the end of the quarter boosted demand for bonds and kept yields lower.   On Tuesday, the yield curve briefly inverted, meaning that short-term bonds yields were higher than  long-term bonds. An inverted yield curve is a signal of a recession according to many economists. It means that future corporate profits should be rather behind expectations and stock prices might reflect it.    On Thursday, the S&P 500 index fell 1.6%. The Dow Jones industrial index also fell by 1.6% and the Nasdaq Composite index fell by 1.5%. The European STOXX 600 index closed down by 0.94%. Even after last week's rally, as investors celebrated signs of progress in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, the S&P 500 index is still down 5% for the first three months, its worst quarterly performance in two years.  Figure 1: SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   The SP 500 index reached the resistance level at 4,600, which it broke, but then closed below it. This indicates a false break. The new nearest resistance is in the range of 4,625 - 4,635. Support is at 4,453 and then significant support is at 4,386 - 4,422.   German DAX index The DAX index has rallied since March 8 and has reached the resistance level which is in the 14,800 - 15,000 range.  However, the index started to weaken in the second half of the week. The news that Russia will demand payments for gas in rubles, which Western countries refuse, contributed to the index's weakening. The fear of gas supply disruption then caused a sell-off.    Figure 2: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart Resistance is between 14,800 - 15,000 according to the daily chart. The nearest support according to the H4 chart is at 14,100 - 14,200.   The euro remains in a downtrend The euro was supported at the beginning of the week by hopes for peace in Ukraine. However, by the end of the week, the Ukrainian President warned that Russia was preparing for more attacks and the Euro started to weaken. News of Russia's demand to pay for gas in rubles had a negative effect on the euro as well. Figure 3: The EURUSD on the H4 and daily charts. From a technical point of view, we can see that the EURUSD according to the daily chart has reached the resistance formed by EMA 50 (yellow line). The new horizontal resistance is in the area of 1.1160 - 1.1180. Support is at 1.0950 - 1.0980. The euro still remains in a downtrend.   CNB raised the interest rate In the fight against the inflation, the CNB decided to further raise the interest rate by 0.50%. Currently, the base rate is at 5%, where it was last in 2001. The interest rate hike is aimed at slowing inflation by slowing demand through higher borrowing costs.   Figure 4: Interest rate developments in the Czech Republic In addition, a strong koruna should support the slowdown in inflation. The koruna could appreciate especially against the euro due to higher interest rates. However, the strengthening of the koruna is conditional on the war in Ukraine not escalating further.  We can see that the koruna against the euro is approaching a support around 24.30. The low of this year was 24.10 korunas for one euro. Figure 5: USD/CZK and EUR/CZK on the daily chart. The koruna is also strengthening against the US dollar. Here, however, the situation is slightly different in that the US Fed is also raising rates and is expected to continue raising rates until the end of the year. Therefore, the interest rate differential between the koruna and the dollar is less favourable than between the koruna and the euro. The appreciation of the koruna against the dollar is therefore slower.   Currently, the koruna is at the support of 22 koruna per dollar. The next support is at 21.70 and then 21.10 koruna per dollar, where this year's low is.   Oil has weakened Oil prices saw the deep losses after the news that the United States will release up to 180 million barrels from its strategic petroleum reserves as part of measures to reduce fuel prices. US crude oil fell 5.4% and Brent crude oil fell 6.6% on Thursday after the news. Figure 6: Brent crude oil on a monthly and daily chart We can see that a strong bearish pinbar was formed on a  monthly chart. The nearest support is in the zone 103 – 106 USD per barel. A strong support is around 100 USD per barel which will be closely watched.  
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 5/4/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 5/4/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 11.04.2022 22:12
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 5/4/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 911 contracts last week. This change is the result of a decrease in long positions by 3,932 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 4,843 contracts. The growth in total net positions occurred last week in the euro, the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar. There were declines in the total net positions of large speculators in the British pound, the New Zealand dollar, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. Interest rate decisions will be made by the central banks of New Zealand and Canada (Wednesday) and the ECB on Thursday this week. The published monetary policy of these banks will be the decisive driver for the NZD, the CAD and the EUR this week. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Apr 05, 2022 31852 27370 -41758 -37513 -1569 -103829 6923 -12393 Mar 29, 2022 30941 21374 -40070 -49606 -867 -102131 1535 -11579 Mar 22, 2022 29635 23843 -37244 -51189 2520 -78482 -4940 -8424 Mar 15, 2022 28380 18794 -29061 -44856 3653 -62340 17740 -5229 Mar 08, 2022 34044 58844 -12526 -78195 -12379 -55856 7646 -9710 Mar 01, 2022 34774 64939 -337 -78336 -14172 -68732 14140 -15248   Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com   The Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Apr 05, 2022 663589 210914 183544 27370 1174 10871 4875 5996 Bullish Mar 29, 2022 662415 200043 178669 21374 3598 -7008 -4539 2469 Weak bullish Mar 22, 2022 658817 207051 183208 23843 -7193 5011 -38 5049 Bullish Mar 15, 2022 666010 202040 183246 18794 -72980 -40643 -593 -40050 Weak bullish Mar 08, 2022 738990 242683 183839 58844 19015 14298 20393 -6095 Weak bullish Mar 01, 2022 719975 228385 163446 64939 23293 14190 8557 5633 Bullish         Total change -33093 -3281 28655 -31936     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1 The total net positions of large speculators reached 27 370 contracts last week and they were up by 5 996 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 10,871 contracts and an increase in short positions by 4,875 contracts. These data indicates a bullish sentiment for the euro. Open interest has risen by 1,174 contracts in the last week. This shows that the downward movement that occurred in the euro last week was supported by a volume and it was therefore a strong price action. The euro keeps moving in a downtrend. Last week it again reached a strong support in the area around 1.0850. Long-term resistance: 1.0950 – 1.0980.  The next resistance is in the zone 1.1160 – 1.1180. Support: 1.080-1.0850   The British pound   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Apr 05, 2022 238266 35873 77631 -41758 13901 5249 6937 -1688 Bearish Mar 29, 2022 224365 30624 70694 -40070 28653 -2129 697 -2826 Bearish Mar 22, 2022 195712 32753 69997 -37244 7389 311 8494 -8183 Bearish Mar 15, 2022 188323 32442 61503 -29061 -57989 -18540 -2005 -16535 Bearish Mar 08, 2022 246312 50982 63508 -12526 34443 3303 15492 -12189 Bearish Mar 01, 2022 211869 47679 48016 -337 23426 5430 -42 5472 Weak bearish         Total change 49823 -6376 29573 -35949     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached 41,758 contracts and thez were down by 1,688 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth in long positions by 5,249 contracts and the growth in short positions by 6,937 contracts. This suggests bearish sentiment as the total net positions of large speculators are negative while there has been their further decline. Open interest rose by 13,901 contracts last week. This means that the downward movement in the pound that occurred last week was supported by a volume and it is therefore strong. Long-term resistance: 1.3050 – 1.3070. The next resistance is in the zone 1.3270 – 1.3300. Support is near 1.3000. The next support is near 1.2900   The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Apr 05, 2022 148898 34871 72384 -37513 5891 911 -11182 12093 Weak bearish Mar 29, 2022 143007 33960 83566 -49606 15240 10213 8630 1583 Weak bearish Mar 22, 2022 127767 23747 74936 -51189 3246 -534 5799 -6333 Bearish Mar 15, 2022 124521 24281 69137 -44856 -72573 4760 -28579 33339 Weak bearish Mar 08, 2022 197094 19521 97716 -78195 7427 6801 6660 141 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 189667 12720 91056 -78336 -2912 1167 -4577 5744 Weak bearish         Total change -43681 23318 -23249 46567     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached - 37,513 contracts, growing by 12,093 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth in long positions by 911 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 11,182 contracts. This data suggests weak bearish sentiment for the Australian dollar as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, but there was an increase in the previous week. There was an increase in open interest of 5,891 contracts last week. This means that the downward movement that occurred last week was supported by a volume and it was therefore a strong price action as new money flowed into the market. The Australian dollar formed a strong bearish pin bar last week. This could indicate further weakening of the AUD/USD pair. However, the pair is in a support area, so to speculate in the short direction it is necessary to wait for the pair to break this support and for a valid retest of the break. Long-term resistance: 0.7580-0.7660                                                                                                              Long-term support: 0.7370-0.7440.  A next support is near 0.7160 – 0.7180.   The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Apr 05, 2022 35788 15428 16997 -1569 907 -76 626 -702 Bearish Mar 29, 2022 34881 15504 16371 -867 -375 -1652 1735 -3387 Bearish Mar 22, 2022 35256 17156 14636 2520 -3944 -4337 -3204 -1133 Weak bullish Mar 15, 2022 39200 21493 17840 3653 -14050 5718 -10314 16032 Bullish Mar 08, 2022 53250 15775 28154 -12379 2861 5290 3497 1793 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 50389 10485 24657 -14172 -6247 -6858 -4237 -2621 Bearish         Total change -20848 -1915 -11897 9982     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached to - 1 569 contracts, falling by 702 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 76 contracts and an increase in short positions by 626 contracts. This data suggests that bearish sentiment has set in in the New Zealand dollar over the past week, as the total net positions of large speculators are negative and they continue to fall Open interest rose by 907 contracts last week.  It means that the downward movement in NZDUSD that occurred last week was supported by a volume and therefore this price action was strong. Long-term resistance: 0.6860 – 0.6880. The next resistance is near 0.6980 – 0.7030 Long-term support: 0.6730 – 0.6740.   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
Welcome Back to 1994!

Welcome Back to 1994!

David Merkel David Merkel 23.03.2022 03:03
Image Credit: Aleph Blog with help from FRED || Believe it or not, I used FRED before it was a web resource — it was a standalone “bulletin board” that I woul dial into on my computer modem I’ve talked about this here: Estimating Future Stock Returns, December 2021 UpdateTime for Another Convexity Crisis?The First Priority of Risk Control (2009, this tells the story of what I did during the 1994 crisis.) And recently I have tweeted about it. Mortgage rates are surging faster than expected, prompting economists to lower their home sales forecasts https://t.co/IiX2gPlAnI 1994 scenario re-occurring. Falling prepayments makes MBS lengthen, leading indexed bond managers to sell low-coupon MBS forcing rates still higher— David Merkel (@AlephBlog) March 22, 2022 We may be in the 1994 scenario where mortgage durations are extending, dragging the long end of the yield, as those that hedge duration are forced to sell, setting up a self-reinforcing move up in yields.— David Merkel (@AlephBlog) March 22, 2022 The MBS coupon stack is a lot flatter in 2022 than in 1994. There is more than 4X the mortgage debt now than in 1994. Lots of pent-up negative convexity. I lived through that in 1994, and made money off it.— David Merkel (@AlephBlog) March 22, 2022 Then from the piece Classic: Avoid the Dangers of Data-Mining, Part 2 “In 1992-1993, there were a number of bright investors who had “picked the lock” of the residential mortgage-backed securities market. Many of them had estimated complex multifactor relationships that allowed them to estimate the likely amount of mortgage prepayment within mortgage pools. Armed with that knowledge, they bought some of the riskiest securities backed by portions of the cash flows from the pools. They probably estimated the past relationships properly, but the models failed when no-cost prepayment became common, and failed again when the Federal Reserve raised rates aggressively in 1994. The failures were astounding: David Askin’s hedge funds, Orange County, the funds at Piper Jaffray that Worth Bruntjen managed, some small life insurers, etc. If that wasn’t enough, there were many major financial institutions that dropped billions on this trade without failing. What’s the lesson? Models that worked well in the past might not work so well in the future, particularly at high degrees of leverage. Small deviations from what made the relationship work in the past can be amplified by leverage into huge disasters.“ Finally from the piece What Brings Maturity to a Market: Negative Convexity: Through late 1993, structurers of residential mortgage securities were very creative, making tranches in mortgage securitizations that bore a disproportionate amount of risk, particularly compared to the yield received. In 1994 to early 1995, that illusion was destroyed as the bond market was dragged to higher yields by the Fed plus mortgage bond managers who tried to limit their interest rate risks individually, leading to a more general crisis. That created the worst bond market since 1926. ================================================== I am not saying it is certain, but I think it is likely that we are experiencing a panic in the mortgage bond market now. Like 1994, we have had a complacent Fed that left policy rates too low for too long. Both were foolish times, where policy should have been tighter. This led to massive refinancing of mortgages, and many new mortgages at low rates. But when that happens with most mortgages being low rate, if the Fed hints at or starts raising rates, prepayments will fall and Mortgage-Backed Securities [MBS] will lengthen duration while falling in price. Bond managers, most of whom are indexed and want a fixed duration, will start selling long bonds and MBS, leading long rates to rise, and the cycle temporarily becomes self-perpetuating. This is likely the situation that we are in now, and it very well may make the Fed overreact as they did in 1994. All good economists know the monetary policy acts with long and variable lags. But the FOMC for PR reasons acts as if their actions are immediate. Thus they become macho, and raise their rates too far, leading to a crash. (Can we eliminate the Fed? Gold was better, if we regulated the banks properly. Or, limit the slope of the yield curve.) I’m planning on making money on the opposite side of this trade if I am right. I will buy long Treasuries after the peak. I am watching this regularly, and will act when it is clear to me, but not the market as a whole, which in late 1994 to early 1995 did not know which end was up. Anyway, that’s all. The only good part of this environment is that my bond portfolios are losing less than the general market.
Soft Commodities Speculators continue to boost their Sugar bullish bets to 20-week high

Soft Commodities Speculators continue to boost their Sugar bullish bets to 20-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 16.04.2022 19:59
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT soft commodities data is once again a surge higher in this week’s Sugar futures bets. The speculative net position in the Sugar futures gained for a third consecutive week this week and for the seventh time in the past eight weeks. Sugar bullish bets have increased by a total of +165,301 contracts over that eight-week time-frame, going from 74,563 net contracts on February 15th to a total of 239,864 net contracts through Tuesday. This sentiment boost has now brought the current speculator net position to the most bullish level of the past twenty weeks, dating back to November 30th. Sugar prices have been strong as well and traded this week at their highest standing since back in November. The soft commodities that saw higher bets this week were Corn (8,508 contracts), Sugar (51,317 contracts), Coffee (4,118 contracts), Soybean Oil (8,828 contracts), Live Cattle (2,775 contracts), Cocoa (2,525 contracts) and Wheat (3,935 contracts). The markets with declining speculator bets this week were Soybeans (-629 contracts), Lean Hogs (-4,729 contracts), Cotton (-1,090 contracts) and Soybean Meal (-7,520 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Apr-12-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index WTI Crude 1,783,725 0 304,778 0 -350,603 100 45,825 80 Gold 577,639 40 254,287 69 -288,093 30 33,806 60 Silver 158,813 24 45,986 68 -63,690 36 17,704 46 Copper 204,825 30 23,350 59 -29,249 39 5,899 59 Palladium 6,340 0 -2,033 10 1,402 84 631 80 Platinum 63,363 27 6,415 11 -13,233 90 6,818 57 Natural Gas 1,170,828 20 -137,549 37 90,221 59 47,328 99 Brent 190,488 32 -36,318 50 33,933 50 2,385 41 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 752,157 34 198,295 79 -170,694 26 -27,601 24 Corn 1,589,848 36 495,581 93 -443,706 9 -51,875 13 Coffee 214,938 0 47,929 83 -52,716 19 4,787 24 Sugar 916,130 23 239,864 86 -301,628 11 61,764 84 Wheat 338,271 1 23,886 67 -21,258 20 -2,628 99   CORN Futures: The CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 495,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,508 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 487,073 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent. CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.0 45.4 9.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.8 73.3 12.7 – Net Position: 495,581 -443,706 -51,875 – Gross Longs: 572,527 721,141 149,665 – Gross Shorts: 76,946 1,164,847 201,540 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.4 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 93.3 8.7 13.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.4 -2.3 -10.8   SUGAR Futures: The SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 239,864 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 51,317 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 188,547 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent. SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.9 44.5 12.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.8 77.4 5.4 – Net Position: 239,864 -301,628 61,764 – Gross Longs: 292,621 407,382 110,845 – Gross Shorts: 52,757 709,010 49,081 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 85.9 11.0 84.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 31.9 -37.2 50.7   COFFEE Futures: The COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 47,929 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,118 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,811 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent. COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.4 51.6 5.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.1 76.1 2.7 – Net Position: 47,929 -52,716 4,787 – Gross Longs: 56,743 110,821 10,640 – Gross Shorts: 8,814 163,537 5,853 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 83.1 18.7 24.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.4 10.8 3.2   SOYBEANS Futures: The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 198,295 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -629 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 198,924 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent. SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.9 47.0 7.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.6 69.6 10.8 – Net Position: 198,295 -170,694 -27,601 – Gross Longs: 247,765 353,160 53,388 – Gross Shorts: 49,470 523,854 80,989 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 79.3 25.7 24.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.1 4.4 3.5   SOYBEAN OIL Futures: The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 98,324 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,828 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 89,496 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent. SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.2 46.9 11.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.2 79.6 5.4 – Net Position: 98,324 -119,136 20,812 – Gross Longs: 113,809 170,924 40,463 – Gross Shorts: 15,485 290,060 19,651 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.9 20.2 91.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.2 -9.5 20.6   SOYBEAN MEAL Futures: The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 116,258 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,520 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 123,778 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent. SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.8 42.9 13.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 3.5 80.2 5.1 – Net Position: 116,258 -148,220 31,962 – Gross Longs: 130,357 170,806 52,146 – Gross Shorts: 14,099 319,026 20,184 – Long to Short Ratio: 9.2 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 92.2 5.9 98.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.7 -5.1 28.2   LIVE CATTLE Futures: The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 51,842 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,775 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,067 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent. LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.9 40.4 10.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 20.1 54.4 12.9 – Net Position: 51,842 -43,300 -8,542 – Gross Longs: 113,806 124,469 31,249 – Gross Shorts: 61,964 167,769 39,791 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.8 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 23.8 72.3 65.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.8 6.5 -1.6   LEAN HOGS Futures: The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 40,771 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,729 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,500 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent. LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.4 35.0 10.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.7 50.4 12.4 – Net Position: 40,771 -35,705 -5,066 – Gross Longs: 84,112 80,838 23,679 – Gross Shorts: 43,341 116,543 28,745 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.2 51.3 68.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.3 19.7 19.0   COTTON Futures: The COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 83,220 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,090 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 84,310 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.5 percent. COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 45.1 35.4 9.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.4 79.2 3.2 – Net Position: 83,220 -96,675 13,455 – Gross Longs: 99,542 78,213 20,481 – Gross Shorts: 16,322 174,888 7,026 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.1 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 75.7 21.5 97.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.5 3.6 15.2   COCOA Futures: The COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 39,159 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,525 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,634 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent. COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.0 44.8 6.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.7 64.2 3.8 – Net Position: 39,159 -46,610 7,451 – Gross Longs: 74,307 107,381 16,611 – Gross Shorts: 35,148 153,991 9,160 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.0 40.6 72.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.4 -10.9 -24.9   WHEAT Futures: The WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 23,886 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,935 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,951 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent. WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.3 37.1 9.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.3 43.4 10.4 – Net Position: 23,886 -21,258 -2,628 – Gross Longs: 119,566 125,657 32,500 – Gross Shorts: 95,680 146,915 35,128 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.4 20.1 99.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 14.9 -21.0 21.9   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Metals Speculators reduce Platinum bets for 3rd week to 13-week low

Metals Speculators reduce Platinum bets for 3rd week to 13-week low

Invest Macro Invest Macro 16.04.2022 20:02
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT metals data is the recent declines in the Platinum futures bets. The speculative net position in Platinum futures has fallen for three consecutive weeks and in four out of the past five weeks. Speculator positions have dropped by a total of -19,418 contracts over those past five weeks and the current speculator standing has now decreased to the lowest level in the past thirteen weeks, dating back to November 11th. Despite a strong environment in general for commodities, Platinum speculator bets are under performing in 2022 with a weekly average of +13,284 contracts compared to weekly contract averages of +25,542 contracts in all of 2020 and +19,324 contracts in all of 2021. Overall, Platinum and Palladium (-2,033 net position this week) have been seeing weakness in their speculative positions as well as their prices compared to the other metals (Gold, Silver and Copper). The metals markets with higher speculator bets this week were Silver (952 contracts), Gold (8,746 contracts) and Palladium (8 contracts) while the metals markets with declining speculator bets this week were Copper (-12,792 contracts) and Platinum (-4,875 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Apr-12-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,783,725 0 304,778 0 -350,603 100 45,825 80 Gold 577,639 40 254,287 69 -288,093 30 33,806 60 Silver 158,813 24 45,986 68 -63,690 36 17,704 46 Copper 204,825 30 23,350 59 -29,249 39 5,899 59 Palladium 6,340 0 -2,033 10 1,402 84 631 80 Platinum 63,363 27 6,415 11 -13,233 90 6,818 57 Natural Gas 1,170,828 20 -137,549 37 90,221 59 47,328 99 Brent 190,488 32 -36,318 50 33,933 50 2,385 41 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 752,157 34 198,295 79 -170,694 26 -27,601 24 Corn 1,589,848 36 495,581 93 -443,706 9 -51,875 13 Coffee 214,938 0 47,929 83 -52,716 19 4,787 24 Sugar 916,130 23 239,864 86 -301,628 11 61,764 84 Wheat 338,271 1 23,886 67 -21,258 20 -2,628 99   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 254,287 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,746 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 245,541 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 58.5 21.7 9.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.5 71.6 3.7 – Net Position: 254,287 -288,093 33,806 – Gross Longs: 338,164 125,627 55,264 – Gross Shorts: 83,877 413,720 21,458 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.0 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.6 29.7 60.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.1 -0.7 16.0   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 45,986 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 952 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,034 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.8 32.2 18.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.8 72.3 7.7 – Net Position: 45,986 -63,690 17,704 – Gross Longs: 66,356 51,139 29,877 – Gross Shorts: 20,370 114,829 12,173 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.3 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.2 36.4 46.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.0 -6.4 32.0   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 23,350 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -12,792 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,142 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 40.0 39.8 8.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.6 54.1 5.9 – Net Position: 23,350 -29,249 5,899 – Gross Longs: 81,940 81,559 17,972 – Gross Shorts: 58,590 110,808 12,073 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.2 39.4 59.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.9 0.1 -8.0   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 6,415 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,875 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,290 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 45.0 34.0 16.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 34.9 54.9 5.7 – Net Position: 6,415 -13,233 6,818 – Gross Longs: 28,544 21,537 10,461 – Gross Shorts: 22,129 34,770 3,643 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 10.9 90.1 57.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.3 15.7 -6.8   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,033 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,041 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.1 51.6 21.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 58.1 29.5 11.7 – Net Position: -2,033 1,402 631 – Gross Longs: 1,653 3,273 1,374 – Gross Shorts: 3,686 1,871 743 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 10.0 84.5 80.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.5 5.6 8.7   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Currency Speculators drop their Japanese Yen bets to 183-week low

COT Currency Speculators drop their Japanese Yen bets to 183-week low

Invest Macro Invest Macro 16.04.2022 22:07
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the further rise of bearish bets in the Japanese yen currency futures contracts. Yen speculators pushed their bearish bets higher for a fifth straight week this week and for the sixth time in the past seven weeks. Over the past five weeks, yen bets have fallen by a total of -55,971 contracts, going from a total of -55,856 net positions on March 8th to a total of -111,827 net positions this week. Speculator positions have now slid all the way to the lowest standing of the past one hundred and eight-three weeks, dating back to October 9th of 2019. This recent weakness in yen positions and the yen price has taken place while open interest has been increasing which shows an accelerating downtrend as prices have been falling as more traders have been entering the market on the bearish side. The speculator strength index is also showing that the Japanese yen positions are at a bearish extreme position with the strength index at a zero percent level (strength index is the current speculator standing compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme). The fundamental backdrop has been the major driver of yen weakness. The Bank of Japan has continued on with its stimulus program and has not indicated any plans to move interest rates off their near-zero level while other central banks around the world have put the breaks on their stimulus actions and have started hiking their interest rates to try to tame inflationary pressures. The yen this week hit the lowest level in twenty years against the US dollar as the USDJPY currency pair trades above the 126.00 level. The other major currencies have all hit multi-year highs versus the yen as well. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Euro (11,690 contracts), Brazil real (603 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,280 contracts), Canadian dollar (5,235 contracts), Bitcoin (411 contracts), Australian dollar (8,798 contracts) and the Mexican peso (14,050 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-2,215 contracts), Japanese yen (-7,998 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,549 contracts) and the British pound sterling (-11,296 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Currency where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Apr-12-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 54,836 78 29,637 77 -36,045 15 6,408 87 EUR 678,607 73 39,060 47 -60,750 59 21,690 10 GBP 246,152 68 -53,054 36 70,949 72 -17,895 19 JPY 245,403 86 -111,827 0 131,902 100 -20,075 13 CHF 41,231 16 -13,942 46 22,299 56 -8,357 39 CAD 155,390 34 12,158 59 -33,450 35 21,292 72 AUD 150,939 45 -28,715 58 17,876 32 10,839 79 NZD 37,585 20 -289 71 -429 30 718 60 MXN 175,905 38 14,960 34 -19,553 65 4,593 62 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 67,772 64 46,129 96 -48,954 4 2,825 98 Bitcoin 10,632 56 167 98 -439 0 272 19   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 29,637 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,215 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,852 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.6 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.8 2.2 15.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.7 68.0 3.6 – Net Position: 29,637 -36,045 6,408 – Gross Longs: 44,303 1,226 8,402 – Gross Shorts: 14,666 37,271 1,994 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.0 to 1 0.0 to 1 4.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.9 14.7 86.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.9 5.6 19.6   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 39,060 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,690 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,370 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.7 53.0 11.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.9 62.0 8.5 – Net Position: 39,060 -60,750 21,690 – Gross Longs: 221,645 359,853 79,165 – Gross Shorts: 182,585 420,603 57,475 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.0 58.6 10.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.9 9.7 -14.0   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -53,054 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -11,296 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,758 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.4 75.7 8.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 36.0 46.9 15.3 – Net Position: -53,054 70,949 -17,895 – Gross Longs: 35,514 186,343 19,803 – Gross Shorts: 88,568 115,394 37,698 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 35.8 71.6 18.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -38.0 33.6 -8.5   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -111,827 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,998 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -103,829 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.0 86.7 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 49.6 33.0 16.3 – Net Position: -111,827 131,902 -20,075 – Gross Longs: 9,925 212,850 20,022 – Gross Shorts: 121,752 80,948 40,097 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 12.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -26.5 25.5 -18.8   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -13,942 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,549 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,393 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.0 74.7 21.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.8 20.6 41.5 – Net Position: -13,942 22,299 -8,357 – Gross Longs: 1,642 30,798 8,742 – Gross Shorts: 15,584 8,499 17,099 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 3.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.6 55.9 38.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.3 1.6 -8.0   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 12,158 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,235 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,923 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.3 49.5 25.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.5 71.0 11.3 – Net Position: 12,158 -33,450 21,292 – Gross Longs: 37,724 76,922 38,796 – Gross Shorts: 25,566 110,372 17,504 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.8 35.4 72.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.0 -8.6 27.6   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -28,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,798 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,513 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.3 53.9 19.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.4 42.1 12.1 – Net Position: -28,715 17,876 10,839 – Gross Longs: 39,770 81,396 29,106 – Gross Shorts: 68,485 63,520 18,267 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.2 32.2 78.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 46.0 -52.2 49.4   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,280 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,569 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.4 45.9 10.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 44.1 47.0 8.1 – Net Position: -289 -429 718 – Gross Longs: 16,295 17,233 3,773 – Gross Shorts: 16,584 17,662 3,055 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 70.8 29.7 60.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 23.3 -25.5 30.2   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 14,960 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 14,050 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 910 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 46.4 48.8 4.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.9 59.9 1.7 – Net Position: 14,960 -19,553 4,593 – Gross Longs: 81,582 85,784 7,517 – Gross Shorts: 66,622 105,337 2,924 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.7 64.6 62.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -11.7 10.9 4.9   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 46,129 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 603 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,526 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.6 15.6 6.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.6 87.9 2.5 – Net Position: 46,129 -48,954 2,825 – Gross Longs: 52,624 10,591 4,496 – Gross Shorts: 6,495 59,545 1,671 – Long to Short Ratio: 8.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 95.7 3.5 97.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.2 3.3 10.9   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 411 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -244 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.2 3.6 10.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 75.6 7.7 7.4 – Net Position: 167 -439 272 – Gross Longs: 8,207 382 1,058 – Gross Shorts: 8,040 821 786 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 97.9 6.3 19.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.9 6.3 -3.8   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Trade Zone Easter Week Ahead

Trade Zone Easter Week Ahead

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 18.04.2022 08:50
Watch Simon Massey’s from Trade Room Plus analysis and his trade possibilities for the upcoming Easter week. Today, he look at the price action for German DAX index, Bitcoin, US NASDAQ, Gold and a 2 major forex pairs of note. Enjoy the video below to get all of Simon’s latest thoughts. Do trade safe! JOIN SIMON THIS WEDNESDAY FOR THIS WEEK’S LIVE MARKET UPDATE. REGISTER NOW. Join us at 7 PM AEST (10 AM BST) this coming Wednesday as Simon for another Trade Zone Live Market Update. Register now to secure your place on our next live market update of April, as Simon examines the key moves of the week so far, and looks ahead at the potential end of week action that you need to keep an eye on. It’s the perfect session to summarise the levels you need to be watching as the trading week draws to a close. Got a burning trading question you need to answer? Want to know about the fortunes of a specific pair or commodity, then let Simon give his view at the end of session Q&A. Registration is free. Click below to secure your seat. Simon Massey is the lead trader of Trade Room Plus, the UK’s premier Live Trade Room. He believes the best way to teach people to trade is to demonstrate live trades. His trading journey started with a small trading account. This led him to trade with ever-larger trading accounts until he was able to leave his previous job and become a full-time trader. Trade Room Plus was established in 2013 and provides educational services to help develop effective trading strategies. Beginners can watch the pros trade financial assets in real-time and learn first-hand from the experts. Important Data Releases & Events this Week Monday CNY Inflation Rate GBP GDP Tuesday AUD NAB Business Confidence GBP Claimant Count Change, Unemployment Rate EUR German Inflation Rate, ZEW Economic Sentiment Index USD Core Inflation Rate, Inflation Rate Wednesday AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index GBP Core Inflation Rate, Inflation Rate USD PPI Thursday CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Report AUD Employment Change, Unemployment Rate EUR Interest Rate Decision, Press Conference USD Retail Sales Friday USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Indes The post Trade Zone Easter Week Ahead appeared first on Eightcap.
CFD News: ASX200 returns to a key supply area

CFD News: ASX200 returns to a key supply area

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 21.04.2022 11:50
Today we are looking at the ASX200 on the daily timeframe. Price has once again returned to a key supply area. Will we see another rally stopped, or could this be a push into new records? The ASX200 has put together three solid months after a shocker to start 2022. Price 6.81% in January before buyers got back hold of things and put over 8% back on to the current point in April. So far this week, we have seen 1% added by buyers. This takes us back to a key area of supply. From roughly 7590 to 7640, we have seen two major trend reversals once price has moved into this area. 13th of August 2021 was the first rejection, and we saw the latest on the 4th of January, which led to a 9% pullback. Buyers once again have a robust medium-term uptrend in play that got going in March. Earlier this month, buyers broke out of consolidation setting up the new push back to the supply area. Will this run be different and finally break and close above 7640-7652, setting a new all-time high? The ASX has a lead on US indexes as it sits close to all-time records atm. US indexes are pushing higher despite inflation and treasury worries. Their continued momentum might be the lead that ASX buyers need to get to that next step. Australian inflation is rising as the RBA has already hinted at higher rates, but for now, that doesn’t look to be causing too much worry to the short term price. We will be watching with interest if buyers can continue to push higher or if we will see sellers flood back in once again, holding the supply area. ASX200 D1 Chart The post CFD News: ASX200 returns to a key supply area appeared first on Eightcap.
Crypto Focus: Another Choppy Week on the Markets

Crypto Focus: Another Choppy Week on the Markets

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 22.04.2022 14:44
It’s been a choppy week, with little direction at the end of it all on the top 10 and top 25. Both markets have seen plenty of action with decent ranges above and below the week’s open. As I write this early into Friday’s London session, sellers are now trying to get the upper hand. For now, the losses remain minor. Looking at the top 25, we saw 5.28% added to the upside and 5.77% to the downside (measuring the weekly bars high and low). Bitcoin and Ethereum both tracked closely to the top 10 and 25 indexes and were the two most significant coins edging lower after setting wide highs and lows. ETH is seeing plenty of support from 2980, and that level, for now, remains a key support point. Bitcoin continues to falter at 41,500. We are noting this level as strong resistance at this point. Fed policy remains a sensitive point for crypto traders as Friday morning’s news of a potential 50 point rate rise in May sent shock waves through major coins. This announcement definitely looks to have derailed or added to buyer worries as the fightback we had been seeing through the week stopped. Other news stated that the Treasury Department added BitRiver and ten of its subsidiaries, based in Russia, to its sanctions list. This coming week we still feel that FED policy looks to be the more sensitive issue regarding demand. Now that the news is out and being digested, could this lead to traders moving on from the shock and becoming a little more confident in buying, or could it continue to drive funds out of the top 10 and 25 coins? Some of this week’s big movers; Monero had another great week climbing to 281. Price gained 19.39% as demand remained thick for this coin. RookUSD KeeperDao is this weeks focus. We noticed the strong buying earlier in the week, and nothing changed by Friday’s session. Buyers are flocking to the coin, taking it back above USD$153, adding 34.52%! Price hit new 3-month highs this week after posting a second straight month of gains (at this point). Price has started to confirm a new trend after buyers beat resistance. If the new move can continue, we are looking at 167.60 as potential resistance. As long as we see new higher lows on the new pull back, we will continue to look for new moves higher, confirming the new uptrend. One pullback at resistance is fine, but we will want to see buyers break that level to really show that momentum is on the buyer side. The post Crypto Focus: Another Choppy Week on the Markets appeared first on Eightcap.
The Swing Overview - Week 16 2022

The Swing Overview - Week 16 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 22.04.2022 15:00
The Swing Overview - Week 16 Jerome Powell confirmed that the Fed will be aggressive in fighting the inflation and confirmed tighter interest rate hikes starting in May. Equity indices fell strongly after this news. Inflation in the euro area reached a record high of 7.4% in March. Despite this news, the euro continued to weaken. The sell-off also continued in the Japanese yen, which is the weakest against the US dollar in last 20 years.  The USD index strengthens along with US bond yields Fed chief Jerome Powell said on Thursday that the Fed could raise interest rates by 0.50% in May. The Fed could continue its aggressive pace of rate hikes in the coming months of this year. US 10-year bond yields have responded to this news by strengthening further and have already reached 2.94%. The US dollar has also benefited from this development and has already surpassed the value 100 and continues to move in an uptrend. Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields and USD index on the daily chart Earnings season is underway in equities Rising interest rates continue to weigh on equity indices, which gave back gains from the first half of the last week and weakened significantly on Thursday following the Fed’s information on the aggressive pace of interest rate hikes.   In addition, the earnings season, which is in full swing, is weighing on index movements. For example, Netflix and Tesla reported results last week.   While Netflix unpleasantly surprised by reducing the number of subscribers by 200,000 in 1Q 2022 and the company's shares fell by 35% in the wake of the news, Tesla, on the other hand, exceeded analysts' expectations and the stock gained more than 10% after the results were announced. Tesla has thus shown that it has been able to cope with the supply chain problems and higher subcontracting prices that are plaguing the entire automotive sector much better than its competitors.   The decline in Netflix subscribers can be explained by people starting to save more in an environment of rising prices. Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart The SP 500 index continues to undergo a downward correction, which is shown on the H4 chart. The price has reached the resistance level at 4,514-4,520. The price continues to move below the SMA 100 moving average (blue line) on the daily chart which indicates bearish sentiment.  The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is at 4,514 - 4,520. The next resistance is around 4,583 - 4,600. The support is at 4,360 - 4,365.   The German DAX index The DAX is also undergoing a correction and the last candlestick on the daily chart is a bearish pin bar which suggests that the index could fall further. Figure 3: The German DAX index on H4 and daily chart This index is also below the SMA 100 on the daily chart, confirming the bearish sentiment. The price has reached a support according to the H4 chart, which is at 14,340 - 14,370. However, this is very likely to be overcome quickly. The next support is 13 910 - 14 000. The nearest resistance is 14 592 - 14 632.   The DAX is affected by the French presidential election that is going to happen on Sunday April 24, 2022. According to the latest polls, Macron is leading over Le Pen and if the election turns out like this, it should not have a significant impact on the markets. However, if Marine Le Pen wins in a surprise victory, it can be very negative news for the French economy and would weigh on the DAX index as well.   The euro remains in a downtrend The Fed's hawkish policy and the ECB's dovish rhetoric at its meeting on Thursday April 14, 2022, which showed that the ECB is not planning to raise rates in the short term, put further pressure on the European currency. The French presidential election and, of course, the ongoing war in Ukraine are also causing uncertainty.  Figure 4: The EURUSD on the H4 and daily charts. The inflation data was reported last week, which came in at 7.4% on year-on-year basis. The previous month inflation was 5.9%. This rise in inflation caused the euro to strengthen briefly to the resistance level at 1.0930 - 1.0950. However, there was then a rapid decline from this level following the Fed's reports of a quick tightening in the economy. A support is at 1.0760 - 1.0780.   The sell-off in the Japanese yen is not over The Japanese yen is also under pressure. The US dollar has already reached 20-year highs against the Japanese yen (USD/JPY) and it looks like the yen's weakening against the US dollar could continue. This is because the Bank of Japan has the most accommodative monetary policy of any major central bank and continues to support the economy while the Fed will aggressively tighten the economy. Thus, this fundamental suggests that a reversal in the USD/JPY pair should not happen anytime soon. Figure 5: The USDJPY on the monthly chart In terms of technical analysis, the USD/JPY price broke through the strong resistance band around the price of 126.00 seen on the monthly chart. The currency pair thus has room to grow further up to the resistance, which is in the area near 135 yens per dollar.  
COT Soft Commodities Speculators raising bullish bets for Soybean Oil as prices hit record high

COT Soft Commodities Speculators raising bullish bets for Soybean Oil as prices hit record high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 23.04.2022 19:33
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT soft commodities data is the recent rises in Soybean Oil futures bets. The speculative net position in the Soybean Oil futures has gained for three straight weeks and has increased in eight out of the past ten weeks. Soybean Oil speculator positions have added a total of +39,176 contracts over the past ten weeks as well. This ascent in bullish bets has brought the current overall position to over +100,000 net contracts and to the highest level of the past fifty-six weeks, dating back to March 23rd of 2021. Soybean Oil prices raced to a record high level at over $80 per pound this week and surpassed the previous price peaks of 2008 and 2021. The Soybean Oil prices have had a strong fundamental component driving it higher. The war in Ukraine has created a major disruption in Sunflower Oils (Ukraine and Russia are major suppliers) that has pushed the prices in alternative oils and other soft commodities sharply higher. Reuters news service also cited an Indonesia ban on exports of Palm Oil as having caused an even greater demand for alternative vegetable oils. The dreary outlook for vegetable oil production could mean we see even higher Soybean Oil prices. Overall, the soft commodities that saw higher bets this week were Corn (5,031 contracts), Soybeans (1,803 contracts), Soybean Oil (6,887 contracts), Soybean Meal (6,498 contracts), Live Cattle (2,683 contracts), Lean Hogs (2,231 contracts) and Cotton (1,900 contracts). The soft commodities that saw lower bets this week were Sugar (-349 contracts), Coffee (-6,126 contracts), Cocoa (-2,802 contracts) and Wheat (-641 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Apr-19-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,740,300 0 307,697 1 -351,252 100 43,555 76 Gold 575,202 40 239,757 60 -275,525 37 35,768 66 Silver 170,577 35 46,429 69 -63,288 37 16,859 41 Copper 203,896 29 18,840 56 -28,307 40 9,467 80 Palladium 6,435 0 -2,182 9 1,560 85 622 80 Platinum 61,603 24 7,537 13 -13,812 89 6,275 50 Natural Gas 1,144,047 14 -130,006 40 82,113 57 47,893 100 Brent 191,883 33 -40,102 44 37,663 56 2,439 42 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 762,855 36 200,098 80 -174,873 25 -25,225 28 Corn 1,625,198 42 500,612 94 -456,269 7 -44,343 18 Coffee 209,410 0 41,803 79 -45,447 24 3,644 15 Sugar 909,622 21 239,515 86 -295,470 12 55,955 77 Wheat 337,038 1 23,245 67 -20,425 21 -2,820 98   CORN Futures: The CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 500,612 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,031 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 495,581 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent. CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.1 45.0 9.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.3 73.1 12.1 – Net Position: 500,612 -456,269 -44,343 – Gross Longs: 586,638 731,004 152,407 – Gross Shorts: 86,026 1,187,273 196,750 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.0 6.9 17.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.3 0.1 -1.7   SUGAR Futures: The SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 239,515 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 239,864 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent. SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.6 44.2 11.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.3 76.7 5.5 – Net Position: 239,515 -295,470 55,955 – Gross Longs: 296,437 402,400 105,565 – Gross Shorts: 56,922 697,870 49,610 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 85.8 12.1 77.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 18.2 -19.8 20.0   COFFEE Futures: The COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 41,803 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,126 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,929 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent. COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.5 53.8 4.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.5 75.5 2.9 – Net Position: 41,803 -45,447 3,644 – Gross Longs: 53,423 112,616 9,760 – Gross Shorts: 11,620 158,063 6,116 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 78.5 24.5 15.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.6 8.4 -2.5   SOYBEANS Futures: The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 200,098 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,803 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 198,295 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent. SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.8 46.0 7.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.6 69.0 10.5 – Net Position: 200,098 -174,873 -25,225 – Gross Longs: 250,566 351,286 55,231 – Gross Shorts: 50,468 526,159 80,456 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 79.8 24.7 28.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.1 3.4 3.6   SOYBEAN OIL Futures: The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 105,211 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 6,887 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 98,324 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent. SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.5 44.2 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.8 76.5 4.9 – Net Position: 105,211 -127,399 22,188 – Gross Longs: 124,302 174,162 41,383 – Gross Shorts: 19,091 301,561 19,195 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 80.6 16.1 96.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.3 -9.5 20.0   SOYBEAN MEAL Futures: The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 122,756 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 116,258 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.0 percent. SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.5 42.4 13.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 3.1 80.7 5.2 – Net Position: 122,756 -154,801 32,045 – Gross Longs: 135,397 171,107 52,874 – Gross Shorts: 12,641 325,908 20,829 – Long to Short Ratio: 10.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 95.8 2.4 99.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.6 -2.2 13.0   LIVE CATTLE Futures: The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 54,525 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,683 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,842 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.6 39.8 10.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.8 54.8 12.9 – Net Position: 54,525 -45,886 -8,639 – Gross Longs: 115,285 122,065 30,955 – Gross Shorts: 60,760 167,951 39,594 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 29.5 67.0 56.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.6 -12.0 -5.7   LEAN HOGS Futures: The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 43,002 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,231 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,771 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent. LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.4 34.4 10.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.6 51.1 12.7 – Net Position: 43,002 -38,275 -4,727 – Gross Longs: 83,133 78,601 24,424 – Gross Shorts: 40,131 116,876 29,151 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.6 48.2 69.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.3 6.1 16.7   COTTON Futures: The COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 85,120 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,900 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,220 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent. COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 46.6 35.0 9.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.0 81.8 3.1 – Net Position: 85,120 -98,107 12,987 – Gross Longs: 97,613 73,296 19,582 – Gross Shorts: 12,493 171,403 6,595 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.8 to 1 0.4 to 1 3.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.9 20.6 94.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.1 -1.0 20.9   COCOA Futures: The COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 36,357 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,802 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,159 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent. COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.5 45.6 6.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.4 63.5 3.5 – Net Position: 36,357 -43,099 6,742 – Gross Longs: 75,822 109,538 15,230 – Gross Shorts: 39,465 152,637 8,488 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.3 44.0 65.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.5 -2.9 -34.9   WHEAT Futures: The WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 23,245 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -641 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,886 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.1 percent. WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.0 37.6 9.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.1 43.7 10.4 – Net Position: 23,245 -20,425 -2,820 – Gross Longs: 121,339 126,766 32,116 – Gross Shorts: 98,094 147,191 34,936 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 66.8 21.0 98.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.0 -14.5 22.9   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Metals Speculators reduce their Gold bullish bets but positions remain strong

COT Metals Speculators reduce their Gold bullish bets but positions remain strong

Invest Macro Invest Macro 23.04.2022 20:45
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT metals data is the recent decline in the Gold futures bets. The speculative net position in the Gold futures has fallen for two out of the past three weeks and in four out of the past six weeks. Previously, Gold speculator positions had added bullish bets for five consecutive weeks from February 8th through March 8th and brought the speculator bullish standing to the highest level in sixty-one weeks at +274,388 contracts. The recent reduction in speculator bets and the slight cool off in the Gold price do not necessarily mean that sentiment for the shiny metal is turning. In fact, the Gold position may have greater heights in store as open interest levels have not recently touched any significant peak high (typically a surge of opinions and counter-opinions that can stop a trend especially at key levels) and the speculator strength level has not reached (or gotten close to) a bullish-extreme level (both of these levels can be signs of a top and exhaustion in trends). The net position for Gold, even after the recent weakness, remains above the 2022 weekly average of +230,004 contracts (the weekly average of all of 2021 was +204,623 contracts). So despite a rising interest rate environment (which may hurt or may help Gold), the combination of super-hot inflationary pressures, a war-time crisis and strong sentiment could help make Gold primed to stay on its bullish path. Overall, the markets with higher speculator bets this week were Silver (443 contracts) and Platinum (1,122 contracts). The markets with declining speculator bets this week were Gold (-14,530 contracts), Copper (-4,510 contracts) and Palladium (-149 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Apr-19-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,740,300 0 307,697 1 -351,252 100 43,555 76 Gold 575,202 40 239,757 60 -275,525 37 35,768 66 Silver 170,577 35 46,429 69 -63,288 37 16,859 41 Copper 203,896 29 18,840 56 -28,307 40 9,467 80 Palladium 6,435 0 -2,182 9 1,560 85 622 80 Platinum 61,603 24 7,537 13 -13,812 89 6,275 50 Natural Gas 1,144,047 14 -130,006 40 82,113 57 47,893 100 Brent 191,883 33 -40,102 44 37,663 56 2,439 42 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 762,855 36 200,098 80 -174,873 25 -25,225 28 Corn 1,625,198 42 500,612 94 -456,269 7 -44,343 18 Coffee 209,410 0 41,803 79 -45,447 24 3,644 15 Sugar 909,622 21 239,515 86 -295,470 12 55,955 77 Wheat 337,038 1 23,245 67 -20,425 21 -2,820 98   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 239,757 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -14,530 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 254,287 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 57.5 22.5 9.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.8 70.4 3.3 – Net Position: 239,757 -275,525 35,768 – Gross Longs: 330,745 129,157 55,032 – Gross Shorts: 90,988 404,682 19,264 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.6 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.4 37.0 65.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -12.0 10.6 9.1   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 46,429 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 443 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,986 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 40.5 32.1 16.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.3 69.2 6.8 – Net Position: 46,429 -63,288 16,859 – Gross Longs: 69,088 54,719 28,471 – Gross Shorts: 22,659 118,007 11,612 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.6 36.8 41.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.9 6.2 -2.6   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 18,840 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,510 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,350 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 40.8 39.4 10.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.6 53.3 5.4 – Net Position: 18,840 -28,307 9,467 – Gross Longs: 83,261 80,280 20,538 – Gross Shorts: 64,421 108,587 11,071 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.9 40.0 80.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.3 8.1 7.0   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 7,537 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,415 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 45.9 35.1 15.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.7 57.5 4.8 – Net Position: 7,537 -13,812 6,275 – Gross Longs: 28,293 21,617 9,250 – Gross Shorts: 20,756 35,429 2,975 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.6 to 1 3.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 12.5 89.3 49.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -26.6 26.6 -3.5   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,182 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -149 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,033 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.9 55.5 21.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 56.8 31.3 11.3 – Net Position: -2,182 1,560 622 – Gross Longs: 1,475 3,573 1,349 – Gross Shorts: 3,657 2,013 727 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.8 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 9.1 85.4 79.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.9 12.1 -12.3   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Currency Speculators raise their bullish bets for Canadian Dollar to 40-week high

Currency Speculators raise their bullish bets for Canadian Dollar to 40-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 23.04.2022 20:49
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data is the rising of bullish bets in the Canadian ‘Loonie’ dollar currency futures contracts. CAD speculators raised their bullish bets for a fourth straight week this week and for the fifth time in the past six weeks. Over the past four-week time-frame, CAD bets have improved by a total of +26,166 contracts, going from -4,940 net positions on March 22nd to +21,226 net positions this week. These gains have brought this week’s speculator level to the most bullish position since July 13th of 2021, a span of forty weeks. This recent improvement in Loonie sentiment has been helped out by the hike in interest rates by the Bank of Canada (BOC). The BOC recently pushed its key interest rate higher by 50 basis points on April 13th and has in the past few days hinted that more interest rate rises were to come. The recent inflation numbers out of Canada were above expectations (6.7 percent) and according to Bloomberg, market participants have pushed their odds to 100 percent for another 50 basis point hike in June. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the US Dollar Index (2,943 contracts), Japanese yen (4,640 contracts), Swiss franc (2,492 contracts), New Zealand dollar (654 contracts), Canadian dollar (9,068 contracts)and the Mexican peso (6,704 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Euro (-7,759 contracts), Brazil real (-1,557 contracts), Australian dollar (-122 contracts), Bitcoin (-361 contracts) and the British pound sterling (-5,860 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Apr-19-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 54,524 77 32,580 82 -35,893 15 3,313 53 EUR 675,939 72 31,301 45 -49,726 62 18,425 5 GBP 249,529 70 -58,914 32 72,889 73 -13,975 27 JPY 251,291 90 -107,187 3 129,842 99 -22,655 7 CHF 44,269 20 -11,450 50 23,051 57 -11,601 29 CAD 153,302 32 21,226 68 -39,338 31 18,112 66 AUD 147,309 43 -28,837 58 20,800 34 8,037 72 NZD 41,098 26 365 72 503 31 -868 42 MXN 165,403 33 21,664 37 -26,214 62 4,550 62 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 70,553 68 44,572 94 -47,063 5 2,491 94 Bitcoin 11,276 61 -194 90 -175 0 369 21   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 32,580 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,637 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 85.6 3.3 9.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.9 69.1 3.5 – Net Position: 32,580 -35,893 3,313 – Gross Longs: 46,685 1,778 5,198 – Gross Shorts: 14,105 37,671 1,885 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.3 to 1 0.0 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 82.0 15.0 52.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.5 3.3 -5.8   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 31,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,759 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,060 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.7 53.7 11.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.1 61.0 8.7 – Net Position: 31,301 -49,726 18,425 – Gross Longs: 221,003 362,930 76,939 – Gross Shorts: 189,702 412,656 58,514 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.6 61.9 4.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.5 9.7 -10.9   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -58,914 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,860 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,054 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.8 74.6 8.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.4 45.4 14.4 – Net Position: -58,914 72,889 -13,975 – Gross Longs: 36,811 186,134 21,987 – Gross Shorts: 95,725 113,245 35,962 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.6 72.8 26.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -33.4 28.1 -2.2   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -107,187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,640 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -111,827 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.1 86.0 8.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 47.7 34.3 17.3 – Net Position: -107,187 129,842 -22,655 – Gross Longs: 12,723 216,101 20,761 – Gross Shorts: 119,910 86,259 43,416 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.9 99.0 7.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -31.6 25.9 -3.8   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -11,450 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,492 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,942 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 50.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.6 71.7 21.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.4 19.6 47.9 – Net Position: -11,450 23,051 -11,601 – Gross Longs: 2,900 31,735 9,599 – Gross Shorts: 14,350 8,684 21,200 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 3.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.0 56.8 29.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.0 1.3 1.8   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 21,226 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,068 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,158 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.7 45.0 24.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.9 70.7 12.8 – Net Position: 21,226 -39,338 18,112 – Gross Longs: 44,063 68,989 37,784 – Gross Shorts: 22,837 108,327 19,672 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.7 31.1 65.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.4 -17.2 20.4   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -28,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,715 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.6 53.8 19.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.2 39.6 13.7 – Net Position: -28,837 20,800 8,037 – Gross Longs: 39,201 79,208 28,257 – Gross Shorts: 68,038 58,408 20,220 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.1 34.4 72.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 45.8 -42.8 19.6   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 365 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 654 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -289 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 46.4 45.9 6.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.5 44.6 8.9 – Net Position: 365 503 -868 – Gross Longs: 19,081 18,853 2,797 – Gross Shorts: 18,716 18,350 3,665 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 71.9 31.2 41.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.4 -20.2 4.0   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 21,664 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,704 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,960 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 44.6 50.0 4.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.5 65.8 1.9 – Net Position: 21,664 -26,214 4,550 – Gross Longs: 73,710 82,643 7,701 – Gross Shorts: 52,046 108,857 3,151 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 36.6 61.9 62.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.4 12.1 10.1   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 44,572 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,129 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 76.2 17.6 6.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.1 84.3 2.5 – Net Position: 44,572 -47,063 2,491 – Gross Longs: 53,790 12,399 4,272 – Gross Shorts: 9,218 59,462 1,781 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.8 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.2 5.4 94.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.8 5.4 5.0   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -194 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -361 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 167 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 73.3 3.6 10.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 75.0 5.2 7.0 – Net Position: -194 -175 369 – Gross Longs: 8,263 408 1,155 – Gross Shorts: 8,457 583 786 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.2 27.4 21.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.8 19.8 4.8   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
CFD News: US30 continues to stall after fightback

CFD News: US30 continues to stall after fightback

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 28.04.2022 04:55
Looking at the US30 on the 8H we can see some signs that counter-rally is stalling. Price remains range-bound between 33,485 and 33,170. With inflation white-hot and the talk of recession and possible heavy rate hikes, could this be a pause before we see a new push lower by sellers? All three major US indices are showing similar patterns, but the US30 definitely looks the weaker of the three for now. After yesterday’s choppy end to the session that saw an 8H range of 602 points, price continues to sit midway at the moment with little direction. Price sits in a fast downtrend with one lower high, but this week buyers have started to put up some defence with the start of a consolidation starting to form between support and res 1. This may also be a pause before sellers try to get going again. Res 2 is another point of resistance holding for sellers currently and if we are to start thinking buyer recovery we would like to see both points beaten with a new higher low to show demand. If sellers are able to get the show back on track we would be looking for a break of support to show that they have beaten buyers for now. The market looks to be waiting on something to give it direction and that might just come later this week with US advanced GDP due at 8:30 EST today and US core PCE price index which is a primary inflation measure for the FED. With the current climate around inflation, this could be key data. It’s due out Friday at 8:30 EST. US30 8H Chart The post CFD News: US30 continues to stall after fightback appeared first on Eightcap.
Crypto Focus: A Week of Indecision and Dogecoin on the Up?

Crypto Focus: A Week of Indecision and Dogecoin on the Up?

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 29.04.2022 13:27
It’s been another week of wide ranges with little direction. That’s not to say we didn’t see both sides try. A few of the top 25 saw solid selling, both AVAX and XRP were hit with sell-offs, while the more significant coins like BTH and ETH fought back off lows forming spinner type candles. Bitcoin traded above 40K during the week but couldn’t hold the level. On the positive, 38,900 continues to hold firm for buyers. APE coin had a massive week adding 57% ahead of its metaverse launch. Doge had a massive week, and we will touch on that further below. Aside from its massive jump, the coin can also now be used for rent payments. On the topic of payments, a Dubi real-estate developer will accept BTC and ETH for purchases of luxury homes. During the week, we did see a few small signs that buyers were trying to get a move going, but a lot like last week, we saw those signals fade as selling resumed. A fair few of the top 25 took heavy selling on Friday’s session, and that was refected as the CRYPTO25 indexes were leading the CRYPTO10 index lower. DogeCoin was the talking point last week. The coin is linked to Elon Musk regularly, and once news of his offer to buy Twitter was accepted, we saw a dramatic rally on the coin. Price jumped as much as 30% higher on the news, but the move was short-lived as a touch over 10% was taken off the following session. Since Tuesday, we have seen every direction on Doge as it looks like traders are trying to work out what Monday’s spike meant. Looking at the daily we have a solid looking range in play, and this could set up a straddle play. A straddle is where a trader places buys above the range and sells below the range. (one cancels over an option to avoid being double filled). If that spike is valid, the question that may need to be answered by traders is if we did see a breakout lower, could it retrace Monday’s spike retesting lows set on the 25th or if we break higher could we see a new test of 0.17? Until we see some direction, the market may remain rangebound. Be wary of tests out of the range, as false breaks can be very painful for breakout traders. In all trading, risk management is an essential part of the trader’s strategy. (The straddle example is an example based on Friday’s chart. The daily chart will have changed, and the range may not be in place by the time of posting) DOGE Chart Here’s 4-hour chart as well just in case you prefer it The post Crypto Focus: A Week of Indecision and Dogecoin on the Up? appeared first on Eightcap.
The Swing Overview – Week 17 2022

The Swing Overview – Week 17 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 03.05.2022 11:04
The Swing Overview – Week 17 Major stock indices continued in their correction and tested strong support levels. In contrast, the US dollar strengthened strongly and is at its highest level since January 2017. The strengthening of the dollar had a negative impact on the value of the euro and commodities such as gold, which fell below the $1,900 per ounce. The Bank of Japan kept interest rates low and the yen broke the magic level 130 per dollar. The USD index strengthened again but the US GDP declined The US consumer confidence in the month of April came in at 107.3, a slight decline from the previous month when consumer confidence was 107.6.   The US GDP data was surprising. The US economy decreased by 1.4% in 1Q 2022 (in the previous quarter the economy grew by 6.4%). This sharp decline surprised even analysts who expected the economy to grow by 1.1%. This result is influenced by the Omicron, which caused the economy to shut down for a longer period than expected earlier this year.    The Fed meeting scheduled for the next week on May 4 will be hot. In fact, even the most dovish Fed officials are already leaning towards a 0.5% rate hike. At the end of the year, we can expect a rate around 2.5%.   The US 10-year bond yields continue to strengthen on the back of these expectations. The US dollar is also strengthening and is already at its highest level since January 2017, surpassing 103 level.  Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields and the USD index on the daily chart   Earnings season is underway in equities Earnings season is in full swing. Amazon's results were disappointing. While revenue was up 7% reaching $116.4 billion in the first quarter (revenue was $108.5 billion in the same period last year), the company posted an total loss of $8.1 billion, which translated to a loss of $7.56 per share. This loss, however, is not due to operating activities, but it is the result of the revaluation of the equity investment in Rivian Automotive.   Facebook, on the other hand, surprised in a positive way posting unexpectedly strong user growth, a sign that its Instagram app is capable of competing with Tik Tok. However, the revenue growth of 6.6% was the lowest in the company's history.    Apple was also a positive surprise, reporting earnings per share of $1.52 (analysts' forecast was $1.43) and revenue growth of $97.3 billion, up 8.6% from the same period last year. However, the company warned that the closed operations in Russia, the lockdown in China due to the coronavirus and supply disruptions will negatively impact earnings in the next quarter.   Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart In terms of technical analysis, the US SP 500 index is in a downtrend and has reached a major support level on the daily chart last week, which is at 4,150. It has bounced upwards from this support to the resistance according to the 4 H chart which is 4,308 - 4,313. The next resistance according to the H4 chart is 4,360 - 4,365.  The strong resistance is at 4,500.   German DAX index German businessmen are optimistic about the development of the German economy in the next 6 months, as indicated by the Ifo Business Climate Index, which reached 91.8 for April (the expectation was 89.1). However, this did not have a significant effect on the movement of the index and it continued in its downward correction. Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The index is below the SMA 100 on both the daily chart and the H4 chart, confirming the bearish sentiment. The nearest support according to the H4 is 13,600 - 13,650. The resistance is 14,180 - 14,200. The next resistance is 14,592 - 14,632.   The euro has fallen below 1.05 The euro lost significantly last week. While the French election brought relief to the markets as Emmanuel Macron defended the presidency, geopolitical tensions in Ukraine continue to weigh heavily on the European currency. The strong dollar is also having an impact on the EUR/USD pair, pushing the pair down. The price has fallen below 1.05, the lowest level since January 2017.    Figure 4: EURUSD on H4 and daily chart The euro broke through the important support at 1.0650 - 1.071, which has now become the new resistance. The new support was formed in January 2017 and is around the level 1.0350 - 1.040.   Japan's central bank continues to support the fragile economy The Bank of Japan on Thursday reinforced its commitment to keep interest rates at very low levels by pledging to buy unlimited amounts of 10-year government bonds daily, sparking a fresh sell-off in the yen and reviving government bonds. With this commitment, the BOJ is trying to support a fragile economy, even as a surge in commodity prices is pushing the inflation up.   The decision puts Japan in the opposite position to other major economies, which are moving towards tighter monetary policy to combat soaring prices. Figure 5: The USD/JPY on the monthly and daily chart In fresh quarterly forecasts, the central bank has projected core consumer inflation to reach 1.9% in the current fiscal year and then ease to 1.1% in fiscal years 2023 and 2024, an indication that it views the current cost-push price increases as transitory.   In the wake of this decision, the Japanese yen has continued to weaken and has already surpassed the magical level 130 per dollar.   Strong dollar beats also gold Anticipation of aggressive Fed action against inflation, which is supporting the US dollar, is having a negative impact on gold. The rising US government bond yields are also a problem for the yellow metal. This has put gold under pressure, which peaked on Thursday when the price reached USD 1,872 per ounce of gold. But then the gold started to strengthen. Indeed, the decline in the US GDP may have been something of a warning to the Fed and prevent them from tightening the economy too quickly, which helped gold, in the short term, bounce off a strong support. Figure 6: The gold on H4 and daily chart Strong support for the gold is at $1,869 - $1,878 per ounce. There is a confluence of horizontal resistance and the SMA 100 moving average on the daily chart. The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is 1 907 - 1 910 USD per ounce. The strong resistance according to the daily chart is then 1 977 - 2 000 USD per ounce of gold. Moving averages on the H4 chart can also be used as a resistance. The orange line is the EMA 50 and the blue line is the SMA 100.  
Copper Speculator bets fall to 2-year low as China lockdowns dent demand

Copper Speculator bets fall to 2-year low as China lockdowns dent demand

Invest Macro Invest Macro 07.05.2022 11:55
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 3rd 2022 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT metals data is the recent decline in the Copper futures bets. The speculative net position in the Copper futures has fallen for two consecutive weeks and by a total of -19,408 contracts over that time-frame. This weakness has dropped the current standing for Copper net positions into a bearish position for a second straight week. Last week was the first time Copper has been in a bearish position since June 2nd of 2020, a span of ninety-nine weeks. This week’s further decline in speculator bets brings the current net standing (-15,623 contracts) to the lowest level in two years, dating back to May 5th of 2020. Weighing heavily on the Copper sentiment is the shut downs in China due to Covid-19 outbreaks, particularly in Shanghai and Beijing. China is among the largest producers of Copper in the world and is the largest consumer of Copper in the world with the red metal being used in numerous manufacturing processes, industries and electronics being produced in the country. Any prolonged slowdown in China economic activity will have an outsized effect on the current demand for Copper. The Copper price has pulled back recently with declines in each of the last four weeks that has taken approximately 10 percent off the futures price. Copper has been on a torrid bullish run that started in March 2020 when the pandemic burst open globally. Since the lows in March of 2020, Copper’s price rose by over 100 percent and now currently trades around the $4.25 per pound futures level. The only metals market we cover with higher speculator bets this week was Platinum (+816 contracts) while the markets with lower spec bets were Silver (-7,338 contracts), Gold (-18,856 contracts), Copper (-11,838 contracts) and Palladium (-245 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-03-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,751,564 2 321,701 6 -366,213 94 44,512 78 Gold 560,441 31 199,168 42 -231,852 55 32,684 57 Silver 137,692 5 28,068 50 -39,317 60 11,249 8 Copper 185,255 16 -15,623 31 10,080 66 5,543 57 Palladium 7,638 6 -2,752 6 2,455 90 297 61 Platinum 66,545 33 -1,541 1 -3,667 100 5,208 35 Natural Gas 1,138,319 12 -117,706 43 72,861 54 44,845 92 Brent 168,128 14 -27,318 65 26,014 37 1,304 27 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 700,856 22 190,402 77 -165,353 27 -25,049 29 Corn 1,513,880 23 501,865 94 -451,210 8 -50,655 14 Coffee 206,337 1 40,697 77 -43,007 28 2,310 5 Sugar 818,627 1 201,592 78 -236,394 23 34,802 51 Wheat 319,233 0 20,012 60 -14,225 30 -5,787 82   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 199,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -18,856 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 218,024 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 52.4 23.3 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.8 64.7 3.3 – Net Position: 199,168 -231,852 32,684 – Gross Longs: 293,439 130,795 51,270 – Gross Shorts: 94,271 362,647 18,586 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.1 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.1 55.4 57.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.3 17.9 -2.5   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 28,068 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,338 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,406 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.2 36.4 17.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 20.8 65.0 9.2 – Net Position: 28,068 -39,317 11,249 – Gross Longs: 56,764 50,184 23,860 – Gross Shorts: 28,696 89,501 12,611 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.3 60.3 8.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -19.8 24.8 -31.2   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -15,623 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11,838 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,785 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.4 46.7 9.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 43.8 41.2 6.7 – Net Position: -15,623 10,080 5,543 – Gross Longs: 65,590 86,458 18,009 – Gross Shorts: 81,213 76,378 12,466 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.1 66.4 57.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -30.6 30.7 -13.0   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,541 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 816 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,357 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 44.4 38.8 13.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.7 44.3 5.6 – Net Position: -1,541 -3,667 5,208 – Gross Longs: 29,516 25,830 8,956 – Gross Shorts: 31,057 29,497 3,748 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 1.2 100.0 34.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -30.5 32.3 -28.3   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,752 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -245 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,507 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.7 59.8 16.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.8 27.7 13.0 – Net Position: -2,752 2,455 297 – Gross Longs: 973 4,567 1,290 – Gross Shorts: 3,725 2,112 993 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.2 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 5.8 90.5 61.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.8 12.7 -38.9   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Currency Speculators drop Euro bets into bearish territory on interest rates & low growth

Currency Speculators drop Euro bets into bearish territory on interest rates & low growth

Invest Macro Invest Macro 07.05.2022 14:13
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 3rd 2022 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the continued drop in speculator bets for European common currency futures contracts. Euro speculators reduced their bets for the third straight week this week and have now trimmed the net position by a total of -45,438 contracts over this three-week period. This decreasing sentiment among speculators accelerated this week with a large drop of -28,579 contracts and knocked the net contract level back into a bearish position for the first time since the beginning of October 2021. The fundamental backdrop for the euro is one of weak growth and low interest rates compared to many of the other major currency countries. The Eurozone GDP for the first quarter of 2022 amounted to just 0.2 percent growth following a fourth quarter of 2021 growth reading of 0.3 percent. The war in Ukraine combined with surging inflation and weakening consumer demand has some banks believing a GDP contraction could be on the horizon while others see parity in the euro versus the US dollar as inevitable. Eurozone interest rates are forecasted to rise this year but they have been behind their major currency counterparts. The US, Canada, UK, Australia and New Zealand have all raised their benchmark interest rates over the past quarter and look likely to see more over the year, possibly widening the interest rate differential even more if the European Central Bank does not act. This week was a very rare week when all the currencies we cover had lower speculator bets including the Euro (-28,579 contracts), Canadian dollar (-11,852 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-6,676 contracts), Mexican peso (-5,503 contracts), Japanese yen (-5,259 contracts), Brazil real (-5,096 contracts), British pound sterling (-4,192 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,038 contracts), US Dollar Index (-808 contracts), Australian dollar (-865 contracts) and Bitcoin (-24 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend May-03-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 54,092 76 33,071 83 -35,684 15 2,613 45 EUR 694,926 80 -6,378 33 -24,586 69 30,964 26 GBP 268,496 82 -73,813 21 89,026 82 -15,213 24 JPY 254,813 92 -100,794 7 120,264 94 -19,470 14 CHF 49,385 31 -13,907 46 30,542 68 -16,635 7 CAD 152,779 32 9,029 56 -12,959 51 3,930 38 AUD 152,257 46 -28,516 58 34,225 44 -5,709 39 NZD 50,844 45 -6,610 60 9,879 46 -3,269 14 MXN 151,933 27 14,623 34 -18,552 65 3,929 60 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 61,549 56 41,788 91 -43,371 9 1,583 83 Bitcoin 10,051 52 388 100 -429 0 41 14   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 33,071 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -808 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,879 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 85.5 2.7 9.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.4 68.6 5.0 – Net Position: 33,071 -35,684 2,613 – Gross Longs: 46,264 1,439 5,296 – Gross Shorts: 13,193 37,123 2,683 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.5 to 1 0.0 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 82.8 15.3 45.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.9 -3.6 -13.9   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -6,378 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -28,579 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,201 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.0 55.1 12.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.9 58.7 8.2 – Net Position: -6,378 -24,586 30,964 – Gross Longs: 208,449 383,222 88,267 – Gross Shorts: 214,827 407,808 57,303 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.0 69.0 25.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.3 6.2 13.9   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -73,813 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,192 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,621 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.5 77.7 7.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.0 44.6 13.3 – Net Position: -73,813 89,026 -15,213 – Gross Longs: 33,536 208,754 20,590 – Gross Shorts: 107,349 119,728 35,803 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 20.8 82.3 24.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -26.3 22.8 -4.3   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -100,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,259 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -95,535 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.3 84.6 7.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.8 37.4 14.7 – Net Position: -100,794 120,264 -19,470 – Gross Longs: 18,585 215,563 18,007 – Gross Shorts: 119,379 95,299 37,477 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 6.8 94.3 13.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.7 7.5 13.9   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -13,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,038 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,869 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.8 75.8 15.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.0 13.9 48.7 – Net Position: -13,907 30,542 -16,635 – Gross Longs: 4,357 37,429 7,397 – Gross Shorts: 18,264 6,887 24,032 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 5.4 to 1 0.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.7 68.3 7.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.6 11.9 -14.5   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 9,029 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -11,852 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,881 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.2 47.5 21.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.3 56.0 18.4 – Net Position: 9,029 -12,959 3,930 – Gross Longs: 44,670 72,629 32,093 – Gross Shorts: 35,641 85,588 28,163 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.7 51.2 37.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.8 -4.0 -17.1   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -28,516 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -865 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,651 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.9 52.6 14.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 49.6 30.2 17.8 – Net Position: -28,516 34,225 -5,709 – Gross Longs: 46,995 80,147 21,330 – Gross Shorts: 75,511 45,922 27,039 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.4 44.4 38.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.0 -10.6 -20.8   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -6,610 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,676 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.3 60.6 4.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 47.3 41.1 11.2 – Net Position: -6,610 9,879 -3,269 – Gross Longs: 17,427 30,789 2,423 – Gross Shorts: 24,037 20,910 5,692 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.2 45.6 14.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.3 18.4 -32.3   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 14,623 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,503 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,126 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.0 52.3 4.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.4 64.5 1.9 – Net Position: 14,623 -18,552 3,929 – Gross Longs: 63,860 79,394 6,771 – Gross Shorts: 49,237 97,946 2,842 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.6 65.1 59.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.9 -13.5 -0.9   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 41,788 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,096 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,884 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 81.2 13.5 5.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.3 83.9 2.8 – Net Position: 41,788 -43,371 1,583 – Gross Longs: 49,991 8,280 3,278 – Gross Shorts: 8,203 51,651 1,695 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.4 9.0 83.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.2 1.1 -15.4     Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -24 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 412 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.8 3.0 8.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 76.9 7.2 8.2 – Net Position: 388 -429 41 – Gross Longs: 8,121 298 867 – Gross Shorts: 7,733 727 826 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 99.5 7.1 13.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.0 4.2 -10.0   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Crypto Focus: Market meltdown continues as Terra (Luna) collapses

Crypto Focus: Market meltdown continues as Terra (Luna) collapses

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 13.05.2022 07:19
Well, what can we say about this last week? It was a horrific week on the crypto boards, with most coins plunging. The selling got going last weekend and peaked with a real market crash on Thursday. 200 billion of value was wiped off just on Thursday’s session alone. Bitcoin hit 25,338 USD at its lowest point on Thursday, and Ethereum touched $1702, setting new year lows. The rout wasn’t just about those two. The top 25 index coin index we quote cashed by 45.18% to its low on Thursday. Why did this happen? As the week went on, a few stories started to emerge. UST was the main influence, and it had a catastrophic effect on Terra Luna, which we will get to later. UST is a stable coin; these coins are meant to be pegged in value to the USD and, in theory, should be at the 1:1 value. UST is a little different as it’s an algorithmic stable coin under-pinned by code rather than cash held in reserve. This is where the trouble began. As UST fell under $1 the cracks opened and fear set in. Selling accelerated, and its value slipped down to .41 cents. This had disastrous consequences for its sister currency Terra Luna which has a floating price and was designed to absorb UST price shocks. Terra crashed on UST failure to hold value and ended Thursday’s session under 1 US cent. We’re talking at 99% plunge! This was catastrophic for traders and investors that owned LUNA as many exchanges slowed to craw trying to deal with the mass of sell orders hitting the exchanges. Pressure on bitcoin, the Luna Foundation owned a mass of bitcoin used to shore up terra in times of crisis. Talk suggested large amounts had been sold to deal with the terra issue and this compounded/added to the panic selling that session. The story continues, tether the world’s largest stable coin, also dipped below $1 US, sending a shock through the markets of a contagion. This added to the panic. It’s difficult to tell what may happen next, but from watching the events this week, it’s important you remain vigilant as this volatility continues. I’m not an industry expert, but from watching the events this week, it’s something that came to my mind.This week’s focus is a sad one, but we can’t skip over Terra Luna. I’m not going to say much more on it as the meat is above. It’s a terrible event as, yes, some might think it’s cool to see markets destroyed, but there’s a personal loss in there as many investors believed in terra and now may face very unfortunate situations. The post Crypto Focus: Market meltdown continues as Terra (Luna) collapses appeared first on Eightcap.
COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets mostly cool off this week

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets mostly cool off this week

Invest Macro Invest Macro 15.05.2022 14:46
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Soft commodities speculator bets cooled off this week with nine out of the eleven markets we cover showing a decrease in their positioning. Soft commodities markets have been red hot this year with the war in Ukraine causing food disruptions, general production problems, food protectionism and, of course, with inflation rising throughout the world. Overall, the soft commodities that saw higher bets this week were just Soybean Oil (3,305 contracts) and Wheat (1,674 contracts). Meanwhile, the soft commodities that saw lower speculator bets on the week were Corn (-30,957 contracts), Sugar (-14,407 contracts), Coffee (-8,142 contracts), Soybeans (-15,794 contracts), Soybean Meal (-15,429 contracts), Live Cattle (-7,233 contracts), Lean Hogs (-5,671 contracts), Cotton (-1,674 contracts) and Cocoa (-15,513 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-10-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,736,594 0 310,803 2 -354,479 98 43,676 77 Gold 571,447 34 193,315 40 -227,756 57 34,441 57 Silver 142,752 9 19,082 41 -30,519 69 11,437 9 Copper 184,502 15 -22,626 26 19,249 73 3,377 45 Palladium 8,832 11 -3,245 3 3,434 96 -189 33 Platinum 66,064 32 1,363 5 -5,373 98 4,010 18 Natural Gas 1,108,451 6 -112,529 45 64,006 51 48,523 100 Brent 173,911 19 -31,215 59 30,562 44 653 18 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 694,454 20 174,608 72 -147,698 33 -26,910 26 Corn 1,510,783 23 470,908 90 -415,345 13 -55,563 11 Coffee 212,659 5 32,555 69 -33,559 37 1,004 0 Sugar 797,453 0 187,185 75 -220,611 26 33,426 49 Wheat 308,326 0 21,686 48 -17,779 34 -3,907 92   CORN Futures: The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 470,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -30,957 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 501,865 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.1 percent. CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.9 42.7 8.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.8 70.2 12.6 – Net Position: 470,908 -415,345 -55,563 – Gross Longs: 573,327 644,830 134,903 – Gross Shorts: 102,419 1,060,175 190,466 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.2 12.8 11.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.4 1.3 1.1   SUGAR Futures: The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 187,185 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,407 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 201,592 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent. SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.5 45.8 10.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.0 73.5 6.6 – Net Position: 187,185 -220,611 33,426 – Gross Longs: 251,330 365,263 86,129 – Gross Shorts: 64,145 585,874 52,703 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 75.1 26.3 49.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.3 -3.4 -9.6   COFFEE Futures: The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 32,555 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,142 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,697 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.8 56.1 3.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.5 71.9 3.1 – Net Position: 32,555 -33,559 1,004 – Gross Longs: 50,564 119,399 7,690 – Gross Shorts: 18,009 152,958 6,686 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.8 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.2 36.5 0.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.9 7.3 -20.9   SOYBEANS Futures: The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 174,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -15,794 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 190,402 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent. SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.4 48.2 7.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.3 69.5 11.0 – Net Position: 174,608 -147,698 -26,910 – Gross Longs: 225,260 334,792 49,376 – Gross Shorts: 50,652 482,490 76,286 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 71.9 33.1 25.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.3 7.8 1.3   SOYBEAN OIL Futures: The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 100,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,305 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 97,291 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent. SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.0 45.8 9.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.8 77.9 5.0 – Net Position: 100,596 -118,831 18,235 – Gross Longs: 118,463 169,761 36,820 – Gross Shorts: 17,867 288,592 18,585 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.6 21.8 81.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.7 -8.6 10.0   SOYBEAN MEAL Futures: The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 84,132 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -15,429 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 99,561 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent. SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.7 47.1 12.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.4 77.1 5.9 – Net Position: 84,132 -108,059 23,927 – Gross Longs: 110,648 169,583 45,065 – Gross Shorts: 26,516 277,642 21,138 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 74.3 26.8 57.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -21.0 22.2 -25.5   LIVE CATTLE Futures: The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 39,803 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,233 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,036 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent. LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.0 38.1 10.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.1 49.7 12.1 – Net Position: 39,803 -35,783 -4,020 – Gross Longs: 111,188 117,509 33,291 – Gross Shorts: 71,385 153,292 37,311 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.5 66.7 67.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -14.7 8.4 22.1   LEAN HOGS Futures: The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 16,360 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,671 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,031 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent. LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.7 38.0 10.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.1 43.0 12.8 – Net Position: 16,360 -10,817 -5,543 – Gross Longs: 66,483 82,353 22,102 – Gross Shorts: 50,123 93,170 27,645 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 24.6 80.7 67.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -40.1 40.4 13.7   COTTON Futures: The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 81,759 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,674 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,433 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent. COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 46.8 33.8 8.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.3 79.6 3.1 – Net Position: 81,759 -92,603 10,844 – Gross Longs: 94,579 68,251 17,191 – Gross Shorts: 12,820 160,854 6,347 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.4 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 74.8 23.9 81.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.5 2.7 -14.1   COCOA Futures: The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 21,046 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15,513 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,559 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent. COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.0 44.1 6.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.5 53.6 4.0 – Net Position: 21,046 -26,770 5,724 – Gross Longs: 87,140 124,216 17,042 – Gross Shorts: 66,094 150,986 11,318 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.3 59.9 53.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.3 21.1 -30.6   WHEAT Futures: The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 21,686 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,674 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,012 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent. WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.2 39.1 9.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.1 44.9 10.9 – Net Position: 21,686 -17,779 -3,907 – Gross Longs: 111,546 120,631 29,835 – Gross Shorts: 89,860 138,410 33,742 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 48.3 34.4 92.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.4 -11.9 1.2   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Gold fights heroically against adverse conditions

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets mostly lower this week

Invest Macro Invest Macro 15.05.2022 15:30
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Metals speculator bets overall were lower this week with four out of the five metals markets we cover seeing lower bets on the week. The metals markets are seeing a cool off in their speculative positions as well as their prices as most of these markets are down from a short-term peak in early March. The only market with higher speculator bets this week was Platinum (2,904 contracts). The markets with declining speculator bets this week were Silver (-8,986 contracts), Gold (-5,853 contracts), Copper (-7,003 contracts) and Palladium (-493 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-10-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index WTI Crude 1,736,594 0 310,803 2 -354,479 98 43,676 77 Gold 571,447 34 193,315 40 -227,756 57 34,441 57 Silver 142,752 9 19,082 41 -30,519 69 11,437 9 Copper 184,502 15 -22,626 26 19,249 73 3,377 45 Palladium 8,832 11 -3,245 3 3,434 96 -189 33 Platinum 66,064 32 1,363 5 -5,373 98 4,010 18 Natural Gas 1,108,451 6 -112,529 45 64,006 51 48,523 100 Brent 173,911 19 -31,215 59 30,562 44 653 18 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 694,454 20 174,608 72 -147,698 33 -26,910 26 Corn 1,510,783 23 470,908 90 -415,345 13 -55,563 11 Coffee 212,659 5 32,555 69 -33,559 37 1,004 0 Sugar 797,453 0 187,185 75 -220,611 26 33,426 49 Wheat 308,326 0 21,686 48 -17,779 34 -3,907 92   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 193,315 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,853 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 199,168 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 50.6 23.1 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.7 63.0 3.1 – Net Position: 193,315 -227,756 34,441 – Gross Longs: 288,947 132,251 52,098 – Gross Shorts: 95,632 360,007 17,657 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 3.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.9 56.8 57.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -24.1 21.0 19.4   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 19,082 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -8,986 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,068 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.9 36.9 17.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.5 58.3 9.4 – Net Position: 19,082 -30,519 11,437 – Gross Longs: 59,829 52,637 24,862 – Gross Shorts: 40,747 83,156 13,425 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 41.4 69.0 9.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -29.1 30.3 -9.9   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -22,626 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,003 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,623 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.2 50.6 9.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 43.4 40.1 7.5 – Net Position: -22,626 19,249 3,377 – Gross Longs: 57,510 93,318 17,183 – Gross Shorts: 80,136 74,069 13,806 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.1 72.7 44.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -38.3 38.9 -19.5   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 1,363 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,904 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,541 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.6 39.8 12.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.5 47.9 6.1 – Net Position: 1,363 -5,373 4,010 – Gross Longs: 28,774 26,293 8,029 – Gross Shorts: 27,411 31,666 4,019 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 5.3 97.6 17.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.1 21.2 -38.4   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,245 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -493 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,752 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.5 59.0 11.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.2 20.1 13.3 – Net Position: -3,245 3,434 -189 – Gross Longs: 1,013 5,209 982 – Gross Shorts: 4,258 1,775 1,171 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.9 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.0 96.1 32.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.1 11.8 -48.4   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Inflation remains hot, stocks rebound as peak inflation appears to be in place, bitcoin breached USD 30k

COT Bonds Futures Charts: Speculator bets higher this week

Invest Macro Invest Macro 15.05.2022 15:14
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Bonds market speculator bets mostly rose this week as seven out of the eight bond markets we cover saw higher positioning this week. Most of these markets are deeply bearish (speculator levels and price levels) as bond markets have been declining mightily in this higher interest rate environment this year. This week’s rise in bond speculator bets will likely be short-lived although there have been increasing calls that bond markets may have hit or are approaching a short term bottom. Overall, the markets with higher speculator bets this week were 2-Year Bond (2,342 contracts), Eurodollar (87,521 contracts), 10-Year Bond (61,565 contracts), Ultra 10-Year (15,302 contracts), Long US Bond (1,942 contracts), Fed Funds (104,415 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (7,666 contracts). The only market with declining speculator bets this week was the 5-Year Bond (-6,738 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend May-10-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index Eurodollar 10,439,124 33 -2,600,587 3 3,030,504 97 -429,917 10 FedFunds 1,750,404 55 49,162 46 -49,266 54 104 60 2-Year 2,264,774 21 -126,829 57 201,609 64 -74,780 17 Long T-Bond 1,207,560 50 15,453 90 -4,991 19 -10,462 44 10-Year 3,722,697 45 -85,972 59 268,376 54 -182,404 36 5-Year 3,813,677 38 -325,674 26 502,383 75 -176,709 32   3-Month Eurodollars Futures: The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,600,587 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 87,521 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,688,108 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent. 3-Month Eurodollars Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.4 75.3 4.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.3 46.3 8.2 – Net Position: -2,600,587 3,030,504 -429,917 – Gross Longs: 356,101 7,861,403 422,820 – Gross Shorts: 2,956,688 4,830,899 852,737 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.3 96.6 9.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.3 3.2 -0.4   30-Day Federal Funds Futures: The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 49,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 104,415 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -55,253 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. 30-Day Federal Funds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.9 75.2 2.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 3.1 78.0 2.3 – Net Position: 49,162 -49,266 104 – Gross Longs: 103,238 1,316,147 39,627 – Gross Shorts: 54,076 1,365,413 39,523 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.7 53.9 60.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.8 -10.3 53.3   2-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -126,829 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,342 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -129,171 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. 2-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.1 77.3 6.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.7 68.4 9.5 – Net Position: -126,829 201,609 -74,780 – Gross Longs: 275,153 1,751,572 140,782 – Gross Shorts: 401,982 1,549,963 215,562 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.7 63.9 17.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.7 8.7 11.6   5-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -325,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,738 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -318,936 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent. 5-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.6 83.0 7.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.2 69.9 11.8 – Net Position: -325,674 502,383 -176,709 – Gross Longs: 291,527 3,167,247 271,640 – Gross Shorts: 617,201 2,664,864 448,349 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.1 74.5 32.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.3 -11.7 16.6   10-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -85,972 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 61,565 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -147,537 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent. 10-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.9 76.5 8.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.2 69.2 13.3 – Net Position: -85,972 268,376 -182,404 – Gross Longs: 406,123 2,846,309 313,590 – Gross Shorts: 492,095 2,577,933 495,994 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.4 53.8 36.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 59.4 -46.2 -0.3   Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures: The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -95,416 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 15,302 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -110,718 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent. Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.5 82.9 11.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.2 66.3 20.3 – Net Position: -95,416 207,218 -111,802 – Gross Longs: 56,783 1,034,536 141,487 – Gross Shorts: 152,199 827,318 253,289 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 4.0 93.4 48.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.7 0.4 12.4   US Treasury Bonds Futures: The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,453 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,942 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,511 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.9 72.1 13.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.6 72.5 13.8 – Net Position: 15,453 -4,991 -10,462 – Gross Longs: 131,916 870,932 156,698 – Gross Shorts: 116,463 875,923 167,160 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 89.6 18.5 44.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.2 -0.6 1.9   Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures: The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -311,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -319,179 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent. Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.6 84.6 11.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.2 61.6 9.8 – Net Position: -311,513 290,655 20,858 – Gross Longs: 45,084 1,069,894 144,208 – Gross Shorts: 356,597 779,239 123,350 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.1 57.2 43.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.9 0.8 -9.9   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
UK economy slides into recession

COT Currency Speculators raised British Pound Sterling bearish bets for 10th week

Invest Macro Invest Macro 15.05.2022 14:26
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for this week’s Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data this week was the rise in bearish bets for the British pound sterling currency futures contracts. Pound speculators have raised their bearish bets for a tenth consecutive week this week and for the eleventh time out of the past twelve weeks. Over the past ten-week time-frame, pound bets have dropped by a total of -79,261 contracts, going from -337 net positions on March 1st to a total of -79,598 net positions this week. The deterioration in speculator sentiment has now pushed the pound net position to the most bearish standing of the past one hundred and thirty-seven weeks, dating back to September 24th of 2019. Pound sterling sentiment has been hit by a recent slowing economy as the UK GDP declined by 0.1 percent in March after flat growth in February. Also, weighing on the UK economy is the war in Ukraine that has sharply raised inflation in the country (and elsewhere) and which could see the UK economy with the lowest growth rate among G7 countries in 2023, according to the IMF. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Euro (22,907 contracts), US Dollar Index (1,705 contracts), Bitcoin (315 contracts) and the Mexican peso (2,102 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Japanese yen (-9,660 contracts), Australian dollar (-13,198 contracts), Brazil real (-1,010 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,856 contracts), British pound sterling (-5,785 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-6,386 contracts), Canadian dollar (-14,436 contracts), Russian ruble (-263 contracts) and the Mexican peso (2,102 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend May-10-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index USD Index 57,556 84 34,776 86 -37,174 13 2,398 43 EUR 705,046 84 16,529 40 -43,026 64 26,497 18 GBP 264,594 80 -79,598 17 95,245 86 -15,647 23 JPY 247,278 87 -110,454 1 124,927 97 -14,473 24 CHF 51,282 37 -15,763 40 29,819 69 -14,056 16 CAD 151,009 31 -5,407 38 2,939 67 2,468 35 AUD 153,209 47 -41,714 46 47,126 54 -5,412 39 NZD 56,235 56 -12,996 49 16,874 56 -3,878 7 MXN 153,858 28 16,725 34 -20,866 64 4,141 61 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 61,450 55 40,778 90 -42,031 10 1,253 79 Bitcoin 10,841 57 703 100 -789 0 86 15 Open Interest is the amount of contracts that were live in the marketplace at time of data. US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 34,776 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,705 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,071 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 86.6 3.2 8.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.2 67.8 4.5 – Net Position: 34,776 -37,174 2,398 – Gross Longs: 49,864 1,837 4,970 – Gross Shorts: 15,088 39,011 2,572 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.3 to 1 0.0 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 85.8 12.8 42.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.6 -3.4 -19.3   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,529 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 22,907 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,378 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.4 53.3 12.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.0 59.4 8.3 – Net Position: 16,529 -43,026 26,497 – Gross Longs: 228,230 376,043 84,921 – Gross Shorts: 211,701 419,069 58,424 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 40.1 63.8 18.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.5 1.2 0.9   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -79,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,785 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -73,813 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.1 79.6 7.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.2 43.6 13.5 – Net Position: -79,598 95,245 -15,647 – Gross Longs: 29,469 210,627 20,157 – Gross Shorts: 109,067 115,382 35,804 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.6 86.0 23.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -28.5 25.6 -7.7   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -110,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,660 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -100,794 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.5 86.2 8.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 49.2 35.7 13.9 – Net Position: -110,454 124,927 -14,473 – Gross Longs: 11,196 213,084 19,811 – Gross Shorts: 121,650 88,157 34,284 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.4 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.8 96.6 24.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.1 0.0 16.7   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -15,763 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,856 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,907 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.2 74.6 16.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.0 16.5 43.5 – Net Position: -15,763 29,819 -14,056 – Gross Longs: 4,727 38,258 8,271 – Gross Shorts: 20,490 8,439 22,327 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 4.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.8 69.2 15.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.7 8.0 -7.6   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,407 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,029 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.6 49.8 21.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.2 47.9 20.1 – Net Position: -5,407 2,939 2,468 – Gross Longs: 38,679 75,215 32,880 – Gross Shorts: 44,086 72,276 30,412 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.3 66.9 34.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.0 14.5 -29.0   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -41,714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,198 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,516 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.1 59.9 13.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.3 29.1 16.7 – Net Position: -41,714 47,126 -5,412 – Gross Longs: 36,869 91,731 20,131 – Gross Shorts: 78,583 44,605 25,543 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.2 54.0 39.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.3 4.7 -34.4   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -12,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,386 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,610 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.0 68.5 3.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.1 38.5 10.8 – Net Position: -12,996 16,874 -3,878 – Gross Longs: 15,203 38,541 2,216 – Gross Shorts: 28,199 21,667 6,094 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.5 56.4 7.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -20.4 26.0 -54.4   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,725 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,102 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,623 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.5 53.1 4.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.7 66.7 1.5 – Net Position: 16,725 -20,866 4,141 – Gross Longs: 63,921 81,735 6,467 – Gross Shorts: 47,196 102,601 2,326 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 34.5 64.1 60.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.6 -10.1 -3.5   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 40,778 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,010 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,788 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 79.5 15.4 5.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.1 83.8 3.0 – Net Position: 40,778 -42,031 1,253 – Gross Longs: 48,835 9,454 3,070 – Gross Shorts: 8,057 51,485 1,817 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.5 10.3 79.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.8 3.5 -20.6   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 7,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,806 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.6 60.6 2.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 0.5 94.7 4.7 – Net Position: 7,543 -7,150 -393 – Gross Longs: 7,658 12,679 593 – Gross Shorts: 115 19,829 986 – Long to Short Ratio: 66.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.2 69.1 23.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.6 16.7 -18.8   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 703 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 315 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 388 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 81.1 2.1 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 74.6 9.4 8.3 – Net Position: 703 -789 86 – Gross Longs: 8,789 227 989 – Gross Shorts: 8,086 1,016 903 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 14.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 19.0 -24.9 -13.6   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Energy price caps could be a game changer for European utilities | Part II | ING Economics

COT Futures: This Week’s Energy Charts

Invest Macro Invest Macro 15.05.2022 14:57
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. The energy markets with higher speculator bets this week were Natural Gas (5,177 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (91 contracts). The markets with declining speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-10,898 contracts), Brent Crude Oil (-3,897 contracts), Heating Oil (-9,228 contracts) and Gasoline (-7,003 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-10-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index WTI Crude 1,736,594 0 310,803 2 -354,479 98 43,676 77 Gold 571,447 34 193,315 40 -227,756 57 34,441 57 Silver 142,752 9 19,082 41 -30,519 69 11,437 9 Copper 184,502 15 -22,626 26 19,249 73 3,377 45 Palladium 8,832 11 -3,245 3 3,434 96 -189 33 Platinum 66,064 32 1,363 5 -5,373 98 4,010 18 Natural Gas 1,108,451 6 -112,529 45 64,006 51 48,523 100 Brent 173,911 19 -31,215 59 30,562 44 653 18 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 694,454 20 174,608 72 -147,698 33 -26,910 26 Corn 1,510,783 23 470,908 90 -415,345 13 -55,563 11 Coffee 212,659 5 32,555 69 -33,559 37 1,004 0 Sugar 797,453 0 187,185 75 -220,611 26 33,426 49 Wheat 308,326 0 21,686 48 -17,779 34 -3,907 92   WTI Crude Oil Futures: The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 310,803 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,898 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 321,701 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent. WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.9 35.4 5.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.0 55.8 2.7 – Net Position: 310,803 -354,479 43,676 – Gross Longs: 415,170 614,716 90,689 – Gross Shorts: 104,367 969,195 47,013 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.1 98.5 76.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.8 2.2 3.2   Brent Crude Oil Futures: The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -31,215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,897 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,318 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent. Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 19.2 48.1 5.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.2 30.5 4.6 – Net Position: -31,215 30,562 653 – Gross Longs: 33,423 83,639 8,698 – Gross Shorts: 64,638 53,077 8,045 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.6 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.8 44.1 18.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.1 14.9 -40.0   Natural Gas Futures: The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -112,529 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,177 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -117,706 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.1 37.9 6.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.3 32.2 2.2 – Net Position: -112,529 64,006 48,523 – Gross Longs: 234,306 420,582 73,144 – Gross Shorts: 346,835 356,576 24,621 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 3.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.8 51.0 100.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.5 -9.1 9.6   Gasoline Blendstock Futures: The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 31,378 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,003 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,381 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.3 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.6 50.9 8.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.2 65.6 4.0 – Net Position: 31,378 -44,072 12,694 – Gross Longs: 73,929 152,809 24,799 – Gross Shorts: 42,551 196,881 12,105 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.1 93.0 97.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.0 3.7 34.1   #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures: The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 6,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,683 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.0 50.8 14.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.1 60.1 6.9 – Net Position: 6,455 -32,434 25,979 – Gross Longs: 59,340 177,626 50,210 – Gross Shorts: 52,885 210,060 24,231 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.9 36.7 88.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -10.3 23.6   Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures: The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -13,263 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 91 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,354 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent. Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 57.7 36.7 2.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 96.2 0.0 0.2 – Net Position: -13,263 12,644 619 – Gross Longs: 19,888 12,644 703 – Gross Shorts: 33,151 0 84 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 inf to 1 8.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.8 41.9 41.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.0 16.3 -11.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
The Swing Overview - Week 18 2022

The Swing Overview - Week 18 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 16.05.2022 10:51
The Swing Overview - Week 18 In the war against rising inflation, central banks in the US, the UK and Australia raised interest rates this week. Britain, meanwhile, warned of the risk of a recession. The CNB also raised rates. They have thus reached their highest levels since 1999. The key interest rate in the Czech Republic is now 5.75%.   The main stock indices have weakened strongly in response to the monetary tightening policies of the major economies and are at significant support levels. The negative sentiment on the indices is confirmed by the VIX fear indicator, which is above 30. The US dollar, on the other hand, continues to ride on the winning wave. The Fed raised interest rates by 0.5% The Fed raised rates by 0.5% points on Wednesday as expected, the highest jump in 22 years. This took the interest rate to 1%. The Fed chief announced that further half a percentage point rate hikes will continue at the next meetings in June and July. Powell also stated that the US economy is doing well and that it can withstand interest rate hikes without the risk of a recession and a significant increase in unemployment.   In addition to the rate hike, the Fed announced that in June it would begin reducing the assets on the bank's balance sheet that the central bank had accumulated during the pandemic. In June, July and August, the Fed will sell $45 billion of assets a month, and starting in September it will sell $95 billion a month.   Although Powell ruled out a 0.75% rate hike at the next meetings, interest rate futures markets continue to expect that possibility with about an 80% probability. Figure 1: The CME Fed Watch tool projections of the target interest rate for the next Fed meeting on June 15, 2022 Based on these expectations, US 10-year Treasury yields continue to strengthen and have surpassed the 3% mark. The US dollar is also strengthening and it is at the highest level since January 2017 and approaching 104.  Figure 2: The US 10-year bond yields and the USD index on the daily chart   Equity indices remain under pressure The SP 500 index initially rallied strongly following the announcement of the rate hike, after Powell ruled out a 0.75% rate hike in subsequent meetings. However, markets gave back all the gains the following day as interest rate futures continue to estimate an 80% probability that the next rate hike, which will take place in June 2022, will be 0.75%.   Figure 3: SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart Thus, in terms of technical analysis, the US SP 500 index continues to move in a downtrend below both the SMA 100 and EMA 50 moving averages with resistance, according to the 4 H chart, at 4,308 - 4,313. The next resistance, according to the H4 chart, is 4,360 - 4,365.  Strong resistance is at 4,500. The current support is 4 070 - 4 100.   German DAX index German industrial orders fell by 4.7% in March, which is more than expected. A major contributor to this negative result was a reduction in orders from abroad as the war in Ukraine hit demand in the manufacturing sector. The outlook is negative and some analysts suggest that the German economy is heading into recession. The reasons are the war in Ukraine, problems in supply chains and high inflation. The Dax index confirms these negative outlooks with a downward trend. Figure 4: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The index continues to move below the SMA 100 on the daily chart and on the H4 chart, confirming the bearish sentiment. The nearest support according to the H4 is 13,600 - 13,650. Resistance is 14,300 - 14,330. The next resistance is 14,592 - 14,632.   The outlook for the euro remains negative HSBC bank on Thursday significantly cut its forecast for the euro, saying it expects the euro to weaken to parity against the US dollar this year, the first major investment bank to make such a prediction.   The post-pandemic economic environment, which has been damaged by the ongoing war in Ukraine, looks challenging for the European economy, potentially forcing the European Central Bank to tighten policy slowly compared to the U.S. Federal Reserve, which has begun an aggressive rate-hiking cycle.  This has raised the prospect of the single currency falling to levels not seen in two decades. HSBC said it expects the move to happen by the fourth quarter of 2022.   ECB board member Isabel Schnabel said this week that rates may need to be raised as early as July. The precursor to any rate hike must be an end to bond purchases and that could come in late June. Markets are pricing in a 90 basis point tightening in rates this year.   Figure 5: The EURUSD on H4 and daily chart The EUR/USD pair is in a clear downtrend with resistance at 1.0650 - 1.071. The important support is 1.05, but it has already been tested several times and could be broken soon. The next support is from January 2017 at around 1.0350 - 1.040.   The Czech koruna got another injection in the form of an interest rate hike The CNB raised the interest rate by 0.75%, which exceeded analysts' expectations who projected a 0.50% rise. The current rate now stands at 5.75%, the highest since 1999. Consumer price growth continues to rise and by raising the interest rate the central bank is trying to dampen this growth by raising the interest rate. Inflation is expected to reach 15% by mid-year. The CNB has an inflation target of 2% and inflation is expected to reach these levels in 2024.   The problem is economic growth, which is slowing significantly.  But maintaining price stability is clearly more important than the negative effects of higher rates on the real economy.  Figure 6: The USD/CZK and the EUR/CZK on the daily chart The Czech koruna has so far done best on the pair with the euro, as interest rates are zero on the euro. The koruna has been weakening significantly on the USD pair in recent days. The current significant resistance on the USD/CZK is CZK 23.50 per dollar and on the EUR/CZK it is 24.70.    Bank of England warned of recession and more than 10% inflation The Bank of England sent out a strong warning that Britain faces the twin dangers of recession and inflation above 10% when it raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point to 1% on Thursday. The pound fell more than a cent against the US dollar and hit its lowest level since mid-2020, below $1.24, as the gloominess of the BoE's new forecasts for the world's fifth-largest economy caught investors off guard.    The BoE also said it was also concerned about the impact of renewed COVID-19 lockdowns in China, which threaten to hit supply chains again and increase inflationary pressures.    The BoE's rate hike was the fourth since December, the fastest pace of policy tightening in 25 years. The central bank also revised up its price growth forecasts, which suggest it will peak above 10% in the final three months of this year. Previously, it had expected it to peak at around 8% in April. Markets expect interest rates to reach 2-2.25% by the end of 2022.  Figure 7: The GBP/USD on weekly and daily charts In terms of technical analysis, the GBP/USD is in a downtrend. The pound is trading at levels below 1.24 pounds per dollar and has reached to the support of 1.225-1.2330. The nearest resistance according to the weekly chart is at 1.2700-1.2750.   
The Swing Overview - Week 19 2022

The Swing Overview - Week 19 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 16.05.2022 10:59
The Swing Overview - Week 19 Stock indices continued to weaken strongly last week, while the US dollar has already surpassed the mark 104 and is at 20-year highs. However, a set of important data is behind us, which could bring some temporary relief to the equity markets. The Czech koruna weakened sharply after the appointment of the new CNB Governor Ales Michl, who is a proponent of a dovish approach. Thus, the rise in interest rates in the Czech Republic appears to be close to its peak.   Macroeconomic data The US consumer inflation for April was reported on Wednesday, which came in at 8.3% on year-on-year basis. Analysts were expecting inflation to be 8.1%. Although the figure achieved was higher than expectations, it was still lower than the 8.5% inflation figure achieved in March. On a month-on-month basis, the price increase in April was 0.3%, significantly lower than in March when prices rose by 1.5%.   On Thursday, industrial inflation was reported at 8.8% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month for April.   The positive thing about this data is that inflation declined from previous readings. However, it is important to note that the year-on-year comparison is based on data where inflation was also higher in the previous year due to the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic.   The Fed chief reiterated that he expects another 0.50% point rise in interest rates at the next two Fed meetings. He also mentioned that a higher rate hike cannot be ruled out if necessary.   The US 10-year bond yields came down from their peak and made a slight correction. However, the US dollar continued to strengthen and broke the resistance at 104. The dollar is thus at 20-year highs. Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields and USD index on the daily chart   Equity indices heavily oversold The strong dollar, rising US bond yields, the war in Ukraine and the effects of the lockdown in China were the main reasons for the decline in equity indices. The SP 500 index hit 3,860, the lowest level since March 2021. This is also where long-term support is. However, the important macro data is behind us and the market has processed all the available fundamental information. This could bring temporary relief to the markets and the index could make an upward correction. The fall in 10-year bond yields, gives this move some boost as well.   Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart However, from a technical analysis perspective, the US SP 500 index remains in a current downtrend as the markets have formed lower low and is also below both the SMA 100 and EMA 50 moving averages on the H4 and daily charts. The nearest resistance is 4040 - 4070. The next resistance is at 4,140 and especially 4,293 - 4,300. The support is at 3,860 - 3,900.   German DAX index In macroeconomic data, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment for May was reported last week and showed a reading of -34.3, an improvement from the previous month's reading of -41.0. Inflation in Germany for April is at 7.4% on year-on-year basis and up 0.8% from March (the previous month's increase was 2.5%). Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The index continues to move in a downtrend along with the major world indices. The price has reached the SMA 100 moving average on the H4 chart, which tends to signal resistance in a downtrend. The price is moving below the SMA 100 on both the daily chart and the H4 chart, confirming the bearish sentiment. The nearest support according to the H4 is 13,600 - 13,650. The resistance is 14,300 - 14,330. The next resistance is 14,592 - 14,632.   The big sell-off in the euro continues The euro fell to 1.0356 against the dollar, the lowest value since January 2017. This value is also an area of significant support where price could stall. Fundamentally, the euro's depreciation is due to the strong dollar and the Fed's hawkish policy, which contrasts with the ECB's policy of not raising rates yet.    Figure 4: The EURUSD on H4 and daily chart Eurozone inflation data will be reported next week, which could be an important catalyst for further movement. The significant support is priced around 1.0350 - 1.040. The current resistance is at 1.05.   Czech koruna weakened strongly on the new governor appointment The President Miloš Zeman surprised with the appointment of Ales Michl for the governor of the CNB. Michl is known for his dovish views, having spoken out against raising interest rates at recent meetings. His appointment was welcomed in the markets by a strong depreciation of the Czech koruna. However, the bank later intervened in the markets by selling part of its foreign exchange reserves to prevent further depreciation of the Czech koruna.   It is important to know that the Bank's monetary policy is decided by the seven-member Bank Board. So far, the proportion for voting on rate hikes has been 5:2. But by the end of June, the president must appoint 3 new board members. This could significantly change the voting ratio on the board and set a new course for the bank's policy, which would mean a halt to the rise in interest rates. However, it is likely that at the June board meeting the board, still with the old composition, will decide on further interest rate increases. Figure 5: The USD/CZK and the EUR/CZK on the daily chart The Czech koruna has reached 24.36 against the dollar and 25.47 against the euro, from which it started to descend after the CNB interventions.  
Crypto Focus: Market Steadies but No Sign of Recovery

Crypto Focus: Market Steadies but No Sign of Recovery

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 20.05.2022 15:34
Let’s just say things have been a lot more settled this week than last week’s bloodbath. The top 10 and 25 indexes remain positive on Friday. But it’s very little pulled back compared to the damage done over the last 6-weeks. A few headlines that caught our attention this week, Ripple partnered with a Lithuanian firm for cross-border payments. Attention remains on Ethereum as it prepares to merge and just hangs on to the 2000 USD level. Tether is said to be partially backed by non-US government bonds. Is this meant to give us confidence after the stable coins fiasco last week? Talk emerging around debt defaults by El Salvador. The country famously made Bitcoin legal tender and was reported to have bought large parcels on the coin. The pressure continued this week as BTC fell below 29K. Price has moved back above 30K, but pressure remains on the country after this move. Ranges are the topic of a lot of the top ten at this point in the week. We discussed this in detail in our Bitcoin report earlier today, and it’s not really a surprise based on last week’s trade. We want to point out the weekly demand areas and support areas we are seeing holding on several coins. Definitely take a look at some of the top 10 on their weekly charts to see the areas and levels we have brought up. Continuing on from this, we want to show an example of this. As you can see below, Bitcoin weekly has held for now from the 28,600 – 30,000 area. Last week’s plunge failed to break this level, and it remains key weekly support for now. While this level remains in play, we will look for buyers to continue to consolidate.   The post Crypto Focus: Market Steadies but No Sign of Recovery appeared first on Eightcap.
COT Metals Speculators have cooled off their Gold and Copper bets

COT Metals Speculators have cooled off their Gold and Copper bets

Invest Macro Invest Macro 22.05.2022 11:40
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT metals data is the recent decrease in the Gold and Copper speculative positions. Gold speculator bets fell this week for the fifth straight week and for the eighth time in the past ten weeks as sentiment for the shiny metal has dulled over the past few months. This latest 5-week decline has amounted to a total reduction of -78,927 contracts from the speculator position. The current speculator standing for Gold remains in bullish position but has descended to lowest level of the past fifteen weeks (at +175,360 contracts), dating back to early February. Despite the speculator decline, the gold price rebounded by over 1 percent this week (close near $1,842 per ounce) following four straight weeks of decline that brought the Gold futures price down from a high of over $2,000 per ounce in mid-April to roughly $1,800 per ounce to close out last week. Copper speculator bets have also cooled over the past couple months and fell this week for the sixth consecutive week. This decline has taken a whopping -60,550 contracts off the speculator position and has dropped the spec level from +36,142 contracts on April 5th to -24,408 contracts this week. This week’s total marks the lowest level for Copper bets in the past 109 weeks, dating back to April 14th of 2020. The slowdown in the Chinese economy and the Covid shutdowns in China have put a dent in the Copper sentiment as China is one of the largest world producers of Copper and is the largest consumer of Copper in the world. Overall, the markets with higher speculator bets this week were just Platinum (840 contracts) and Palladium (30 contracts). The markets with declining speculator bets this week were Gold (-17,955 contracts), Silver (-2,968 contracts) and Copper (-1,782 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-17-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,730,665 0 325,637 7 -363,869 95 38,232 69 Gold 555,756 30 175,360 33 -206,879 65 31,519 48 Silver 144,534 11 16,114 38 -24,841 75 8,727 0 Copper 189,483 19 -24,408 25 23,059 75 1,349 33 Palladium 9,114 13 -3,215 3 3,621 97 -406 20 Platinum 65,926 32 2,203 7 -6,697 96 4,494 25 Natural Gas 1,118,417 8 -115,012 44 64,340 51 50,672 100 Brent 176,861 21 -34,867 53 32,127 47 2,740 46 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 709,144 24 183,647 73 -156,937 33 -26,710 26 Corn 1,548,438 29 473,743 91 -424,756 11 -48,987 15 Coffee 206,106 0 38,487 72 -40,949 32 2,462 13 Sugar 825,281 6 196,630 77 -245,374 22 48,744 68 Wheat 326,651 8 28,806 57 -26,020 23 -2,786 98   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 175,360 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -17,955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 193,315 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 50.9 24.8 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.4 62.0 3.4 – Net Position: 175,360 -206,879 31,519 – Gross Longs: 283,011 137,687 50,588 – Gross Shorts: 107,651 344,566 19,069 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.6 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.2 64.8 48.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -26.3 26.1 -5.4   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,114 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,968 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,082 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.4 37.6 16.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.3 54.7 10.0 – Net Position: 16,114 -24,841 8,727 – Gross Longs: 59,857 54,287 23,121 – Gross Shorts: 43,743 79,128 14,394 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.4 74.5 0.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -28.8 34.5 -34.4   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -24,408 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,782 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,626 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.1 53.6 8.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.9 41.4 7.6 – Net Position: -24,408 23,059 1,349 – Gross Longs: 53,159 101,533 15,747 – Gross Shorts: 77,567 78,474 14,398 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 24.8 75.3 33.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -43.6 45.4 -32.1   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 2,203 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 840 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,363 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.9 39.4 12.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.5 49.6 5.4 – Net Position: 2,203 -6,697 4,494 – Gross Longs: 28,253 26,002 8,051 – Gross Shorts: 26,050 32,699 3,557 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 6.5 95.8 24.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.0 15.5 -29.7   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 30 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,245 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.9 62.7 11.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.2 22.9 15.7 – Net Position: -3,215 3,621 -406 – Gross Longs: 996 5,712 1,021 – Gross Shorts: 4,211 2,091 1,427 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.2 97.1 20.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.7 12.4 -58.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Forex Speculators weaken Commodity Currency sentiment over last month - 22.05.2022

Forex Speculators weaken Commodity Currency sentiment over last month - 22.05.2022

Invest Macro Invest Macro 22.05.2022 12:34
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Click for larger image Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the commodity currency speculator positions that have been on the defensive in recent weeks. Canadian dollar positions declined for a fourth straight week this week and have fallen by a total of -35,722 contracts over the past four weeks. This has pushed the overall speculator standing into a bearish position for a second straight week and to the most bearish level since October 2021. Previously, from the middle of January, CAD positions had started to trend higher and mostly maintained a bullish position into April, reaching a 40-week high on April 19th before seeing speculator sentiment weaken (-14,496 contracts this week). Australian dollar spec positions slipped for a third straight week this week and the overall speculator position has now hit a 7-week low. Aussie positions have maintained a bearish speculator bias since last May (52 consecutive weeks in bearish territory) but had recently seen a reprieve of the weak sentiment. Aussie positions improved strongly from late-February to late-April with a 10-week contract rise of +59,043 positions from February 22nd to April 26th. The speculator positions hit the least bearish level (on April 26th) of the previous 42 weeks before these past 3 weeks has seen speculators re-up their bearish levels. New Zealand dollar speculators also added to their bearish bets for a fourth straight week and have now pushed the position to the most bearish level since March 17th of 2020, a span of 113 weeks. Kiwi speculator positions had spent almost all of 2021 in bullish levels but spec bets started to falter at the end of the year and into the new year (through early March). Recently, positions had turned positive to bullish positioning in the middle of March and again later in April before turning lower in recent weeks. The NZD speculator sentiment has now been in bearish territory for the past three weeks after dropping by a total of -18,132 contracts from April 26th to this week. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the US Dollar Index (1,437 contracts), Japanese yen (8,145 contracts), Euro (3,810 contracts), British pound sterling (357 contracts), Bitcoin (103 contracts) and the Mexican peso (11,490 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the New Zealand dollar (-4,771 contracts), Canadian dollar (-9,089 contracts), Australian dollar (-2,928 contracts), Brazil real (-2,683 contracts) and the Swiss franc (-829 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend May-17-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 61,899 93 36,213 88 -39,506 9 3,293 53 EUR 706,712 85 20,339 41 -51,517 61 31,178 26 GBP 253,811 73 -79,241 17 94,344 85 -15,103 24 JPY 241,308 83 -102,309 6 115,062 92 -12,753 28 CHF 53,291 42 -16,592 37 31,181 72 -14,589 14 CAD 151,585 31 -14,496 28 12,591 75 1,905 34 AUD 163,809 55 -44,642 43 54,437 59 -9,795 29 NZD 60,804 64 -17,767 41 21,390 63 -3,623 10 MXN 170,924 36 28,215 39 -32,249 59 4,034 60 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 55,990 48 38,095 88 -39,436 13 1,341 80 Bitcoin 11,644 63 806 100 -875 0 69 15   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 36,213 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,437 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,776 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 86.5 3.4 8.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.0 67.2 3.5 – Net Position: 36,213 -39,506 3,293 – Gross Longs: 53,519 2,105 5,449 – Gross Shorts: 17,306 41,611 2,156 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.1 to 1 0.1 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.2 9.0 52.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.5 -7.2 -0.5   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 20,339 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,810 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,529 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.7 52.7 12.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.8 59.9 7.7 – Net Position: 20,339 -51,517 31,178 – Gross Longs: 230,770 372,113 85,455 – Gross Shorts: 210,431 423,630 54,277 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 41.2 61.4 26.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.2 -0.5 14.8   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -79,241 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 357 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,598 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.5 79.4 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.7 42.3 14.1 – Net Position: -79,241 94,344 -15,103 – Gross Longs: 26,613 201,647 20,811 – Gross Shorts: 105,854 107,303 35,914 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.9 85.5 24.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -27.0 21.6 1.9   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -102,309 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,145 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -110,454 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.0 84.7 8.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 47.4 37.0 14.0 – Net Position: -102,309 115,062 -12,753 – Gross Longs: 12,113 204,417 20,933 – Gross Shorts: 114,422 89,355 33,686 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 5.9 91.8 27.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.9 -5.0 17.6   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -16,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -829 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,763 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.8 74.5 15.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.0 16.0 42.6 – Net Position: -16,592 31,181 -14,589 – Gross Longs: 5,240 39,722 8,094 – Gross Shorts: 21,832 8,541 22,683 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 4.7 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 36.6 72.3 13.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.9 12.9 -19.8   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -14,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,089 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,407 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.8 52.7 20.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.4 44.4 19.3 – Net Position: -14,496 12,591 1,905 – Gross Longs: 36,069 79,825 31,228 – Gross Shorts: 50,565 67,234 29,323 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.5 75.0 33.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.4 33.9 -43.0   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -44,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,928 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,714 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.3 60.4 11.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.6 27.1 17.7 – Net Position: -44,642 54,437 -9,795 – Gross Longs: 41,473 98,903 19,187 – Gross Shorts: 86,115 44,466 28,982 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.4 59.5 28.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.6 24.0 -60.9   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -17,767 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,771 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,996 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.7 71.1 3.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 53.9 35.9 9.8 – Net Position: -17,767 21,390 -3,623 – Gross Longs: 14,998 43,219 2,358 – Gross Shorts: 32,765 21,829 5,981 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 41.5 63.4 10.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -27.2 32.7 -57.5   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 28,215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 11,490 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,725 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 45.5 49.1 4.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.0 67.9 1.7 – Net Position: 28,215 -32,249 4,034 – Gross Longs: 77,819 83,844 7,000 – Gross Shorts: 49,604 116,093 2,966 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.4 59.4 60.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.6 -11.0 -3.5   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 38,095 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,683 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,778 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 76.8 16.9 6.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.7 87.3 3.7 – Net Position: 38,095 -39,436 1,341 – Gross Longs: 42,989 9,470 3,438 – Gross Shorts: 4,894 48,906 2,097 – Long to Short Ratio: 8.8 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 87.8 12.8 80.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.3 8.3 -12.8   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 806 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 103 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 703 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 82.1 1.7 9.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 75.2 9.2 8.7 – Net Position: 806 -875 69 – Gross Longs: 9,564 194 1,081 – Gross Shorts: 8,758 1,069 1,012 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 14.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.1 -29.8 -13.0   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.  
WCU: Recession fears drive steep commodity declines

COT Metals Speculators have cooled off their Gold and Copper bets - 22.05.2022

Invest Macro Invest Macro 22.05.2022 12:33
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT metals data is the recent decrease in the Gold and Copper speculative positions. Gold speculator bets fell this week for the fifth straight week and for the eighth time in the past ten weeks as sentiment for the shiny metal has dulled over the past few months. This latest 5-week decline has amounted to a total reduction of -78,927 contracts from the speculator position. The current speculator standing for Gold remains in bullish position but has descended to lowest level of the past fifteen weeks (at +175,360 contracts), dating back to early February. Despite the speculator decline, the gold price rebounded by over 1 percent this week (close near $1,842 per ounce) following four straight weeks of decline that brought the Gold futures price down from a high of over $2,000 per ounce in mid-April to roughly $1,800 per ounce to close out last week. Copper speculator bets have also cooled over the past couple months and fell this week for the sixth consecutive week. This decline has taken a whopping -60,550 contracts off the speculator position and has dropped the spec level from +36,142 contracts on April 5th to -24,408 contracts this week. This week’s total marks the lowest level for Copper bets in the past 109 weeks, dating back to April 14th of 2020. The slowdown in the Chinese economy and the Covid shutdowns in China have put a dent in the Copper sentiment as China is one of the largest world producers of Copper and is the largest consumer of Copper in the world. Overall, the markets with higher speculator bets this week were just Platinum (840 contracts) and Palladium (30 contracts). The markets with declining speculator bets this week were Gold (-17,955 contracts), Silver (-2,968 contracts) and Copper (-1,782 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-17-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index WTI Crude 1,730,665 0 325,637 7 -363,869 95 38,232 69 Gold 555,756 30 175,360 33 -206,879 65 31,519 48 Silver 144,534 11 16,114 38 -24,841 75 8,727 0 Copper 189,483 19 -24,408 25 23,059 75 1,349 33 Palladium 9,114 13 -3,215 3 3,621 97 -406 20 Platinum 65,926 32 2,203 7 -6,697 96 4,494 25 Natural Gas 1,118,417 8 -115,012 44 64,340 51 50,672 100 Brent 176,861 21 -34,867 53 32,127 47 2,740 46 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 709,144 24 183,647 73 -156,937 33 -26,710 26 Corn 1,548,438 29 473,743 91 -424,756 11 -48,987 15 Coffee 206,106 0 38,487 72 -40,949 32 2,462 13 Sugar 825,281 6 196,630 77 -245,374 22 48,744 68 Wheat 326,651 8 28,806 57 -26,020 23 -2,786 98   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 175,360 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -17,955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 193,315 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 50.9 24.8 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.4 62.0 3.4 – Net Position: 175,360 -206,879 31,519 – Gross Longs: 283,011 137,687 50,588 – Gross Shorts: 107,651 344,566 19,069 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.6 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.2 64.8 48.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -26.3 26.1 -5.4   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,114 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,968 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,082 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.4 37.6 16.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.3 54.7 10.0 – Net Position: 16,114 -24,841 8,727 – Gross Longs: 59,857 54,287 23,121 – Gross Shorts: 43,743 79,128 14,394 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.4 74.5 0.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -28.8 34.5 -34.4   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -24,408 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,782 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,626 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.1 53.6 8.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.9 41.4 7.6 – Net Position: -24,408 23,059 1,349 – Gross Longs: 53,159 101,533 15,747 – Gross Shorts: 77,567 78,474 14,398 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 24.8 75.3 33.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -43.6 45.4 -32.1   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 2,203 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 840 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,363 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.9 39.4 12.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.5 49.6 5.4 – Net Position: 2,203 -6,697 4,494 – Gross Longs: 28,253 26,002 8,051 – Gross Shorts: 26,050 32,699 3,557 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 6.5 95.8 24.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.0 15.5 -29.7   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 30 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,245 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.9 62.7 11.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.2 22.9 15.7 – Net Position: -3,215 3,621 -406 – Gross Longs: 996 5,712 1,021 – Gross Shorts: 4,211 2,091 1,427 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.2 97.1 20.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.7 12.4 -58.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Futures Charts: Soft Commodities Speculator bets mixed

COT Futures Charts: Soft Commodities Speculator bets mixed

Invest Macro Invest Macro 22.05.2022 12:32
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Soft Commodities market speculator bets were mixed this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning this week while six markets saw lower positions. Leading the gains for the soft commodities was Sugar (9,445 contracts) and Soybeans (9,039 contracts) with Wheat (7,120 contracts), Coffee (5,932 contracts) and Corn (2,835 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-10,832 contracts) and Lean Hogs (-8,595 contracts) with Live Cattle (-4,773 contracts), Soybean Oil (-4,295 contracts), Cotton (-2,443 contracts) and Cocoa (-2,463 contracts) also coming in with lower bets on the week. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-17-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index WTI Crude 1,730,665 0 325,637 7 -363,869 95 38,232 69 Gold 555,756 30 175,360 33 -206,879 65 31,519 48 Silver 144,534 11 16,114 38 -24,841 75 8,727 0 Copper 189,483 19 -24,408 25 23,059 75 1,349 33 Palladium 9,114 13 -3,215 3 3,621 97 -406 20 Platinum 65,926 32 2,203 7 -6,697 96 4,494 25 Natural Gas 1,118,417 8 -115,012 44 64,340 51 50,672 100 Brent 176,861 21 -34,867 53 32,127 47 2,740 46 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 709,144 24 183,647 73 -156,937 33 -26,710 26 Corn 1,548,438 29 473,743 91 -424,756 11 -48,987 15 Coffee 206,106 0 38,487 72 -40,949 32 2,462 13 Sugar 825,281 6 196,630 77 -245,374 22 48,744 68 Wheat 326,651 8 28,806 57 -26,020 23 -2,786 98   CORN Futures: The CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 473,743 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,835 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 470,908 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 38.1 42.2 9.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.5 69.6 12.4 – Net Position: 473,743 -424,756 -48,987 – Gross Longs: 589,352 653,039 143,508 – Gross Shorts: 115,609 1,077,795 192,495 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.6 11.4 14.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.7 -0.1 8.0   SUGAR Futures: The SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 196,630 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,445 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 187,185 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent. SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.6 45.9 11.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.8 75.6 5.5 – Net Position: 196,630 -245,374 48,744 – Gross Longs: 252,752 378,422 94,457 – Gross Shorts: 56,122 623,796 45,713 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 77.0 21.6 68.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.7 -1.0 -3.5   COFFEE Futures: The COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 38,487 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,932 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,555 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent. COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.0 54.0 4.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.3 73.9 2.9 – Net Position: 38,487 -40,949 2,462 – Gross Longs: 49,501 111,397 8,495 – Gross Shorts: 11,014 152,346 6,033 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 72.1 32.1 12.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.6 7.1 -21.6   SOYBEANS Futures: The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 183,647 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,039 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 174,608 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent. SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.7 47.8 7.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.8 69.9 10.8 – Net Position: 183,647 -156,937 -26,710 – Gross Longs: 231,911 338,718 49,750 – Gross Shorts: 48,264 495,655 76,460 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.8 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 72.6 33.0 25.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.3 3.7 2.3   SOYBEAN OIL Futures: The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 96,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,295 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 100,596 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent. SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.1 46.1 10.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.2 77.7 4.9 – Net Position: 96,301 -117,724 21,423 – Gross Longs: 115,709 171,880 39,590 – Gross Shorts: 19,408 289,604 18,167 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 72.5 23.8 93.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -7.1 21.4   SOYBEAN MEAL Futures: The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 73,300 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,832 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 84,132 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent. SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.6 47.3 13.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.4 75.2 6.3 – Net Position: 73,300 -100,729 27,429 – Gross Longs: 103,499 171,144 50,082 – Gross Shorts: 30,199 271,873 22,653 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.4 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.3 30.6 75.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -28.1 27.7 -14.2   LIVE CATTLE Futures: The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 35,030 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,773 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,803 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent. LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.6 39.2 10.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.0 49.7 12.0 – Net Position: 35,030 -31,417 -3,613 – Gross Longs: 107,168 117,903 32,549 – Gross Shorts: 72,138 149,320 36,162 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 22.7 70.8 69.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.2 12.4 16.6   LEAN HOGS Futures: The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 7,765 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,595 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,360 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent. LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.9 39.9 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.1 41.2 13.0 – Net Position: 7,765 -2,647 -5,118 – Gross Longs: 58,847 81,203 21,361 – Gross Shorts: 51,082 83,850 26,479 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 15.2 90.3 70.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -41.1 42.7 8.5   COTTON Futures: The COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 79,316 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,443 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,759 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent. COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 45.1 34.6 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.0 79.4 3.5 – Net Position: 79,316 -90,872 11,556 – Gross Longs: 91,525 70,065 18,559 – Gross Shorts: 12,209 160,937 7,003 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 73.2 24.9 85.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.2 4.0 -12.1   COCOA Futures: The COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 18,583 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,046 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent. COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.9 44.5 5.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.5 52.6 4.0 – Net Position: 18,583 -23,668 5,085 – Gross Longs: 87,225 129,740 16,687 – Gross Shorts: 68,642 153,408 11,602 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 35.8 62.9 47.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.7 19.0 -14.9   WHEAT Futures: The WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 28,806 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,120 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,686 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.3 percent. WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.2 36.8 10.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.4 44.8 11.3 – Net Position: 28,806 -26,020 -2,786 – Gross Longs: 121,593 120,341 33,993 – Gross Shorts: 92,787 146,361 36,779 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.5 22.7 98.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.5 -15.2 9.7   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Trading plan for Natural Gas on June 24, 2022

COT Charts: Speculator positions were mixed in Energy this week

Invest Macro Invest Macro 22.05.2022 12:21
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week. Overall, the energy markets with higher speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (14,834 contracts), Gasoline (2,420 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (3,624 contracts). The markets with declining speculator bets this week were Brent Crude Oil (-3,652 contracts), Natural Gas (-2,483 contracts) and Heating Oil (-9,228 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-17-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index WTI Crude 1,730,665 0 325,637 7 -363,869 95 38,232 69 Gold 555,756 30 175,360 33 -206,879 65 31,519 48 Silver 144,534 11 16,114 38 -24,841 75 8,727 0 Copper 189,483 19 -24,408 25 23,059 75 1,349 33 Palladium 9,114 13 -3,215 3 3,621 97 -406 20 Platinum 65,926 32 2,203 7 -6,697 96 4,494 25 Natural Gas 1,118,417 8 -115,012 44 64,340 51 50,672 100 Brent 176,861 21 -34,867 53 32,127 47 2,740 46 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 709,144 24 183,647 73 -156,937 33 -26,710 26 Corn 1,548,438 29 473,743 91 -424,756 11 -48,987 15 Coffee 206,106 0 38,487 72 -40,949 32 2,462 13 Sugar 825,281 6 196,630 77 -245,374 22 48,744 68 Wheat 326,651 8 28,806 57 -26,020 23 -2,786 98   WTI Crude Oil Futures: The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 325,637 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 14,834 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 310,803 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent. WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.0 35.3 5.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.2 56.3 2.9 – Net Position: 325,637 -363,869 38,232 – Gross Longs: 416,190 611,264 88,406 – Gross Shorts: 90,553 975,133 50,174 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 7.3 94.9 68.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.0 -3.3 -12.1   Brent Crude Oil Futures: The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -34,867 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,652 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,215 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent. Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.7 50.8 4.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 35.4 32.7 3.1 – Net Position: -34,867 32,127 2,740 – Gross Longs: 27,757 89,898 8,270 – Gross Shorts: 62,624 57,771 5,530 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 52.7 46.7 46.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.7 9.3 -5.9   Natural Gas Futures: The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -115,012 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,483 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -112,529 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.7 37.5 6.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.0 31.7 2.2 – Net Position: -115,012 64,340 50,672 – Gross Longs: 231,576 419,033 75,523 – Gross Shorts: 346,588 354,693 24,851 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 3.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.1 51.1 100.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.5 -9.0 15.8   Gasoline Blendstock Futures: The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 33,798 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,420 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,378 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.6 52.8 7.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.6 68.0 3.7 – Net Position: 33,798 -46,770 12,972 – Gross Longs: 75,744 162,371 24,256 – Gross Shorts: 41,946 209,141 11,284 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.8 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 4.5 90.3 99.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.3 3.3 39.2   #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures: The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 6,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,683 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.0 50.8 14.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.1 60.1 6.9 – Net Position: 6,455 -32,434 25,979 – Gross Longs: 59,340 177,626 50,210 – Gross Shorts: 52,885 210,060 24,231 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.9 36.7 88.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -10.3 23.6   Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures: The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -9,639 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,624 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,263 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent. Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 67.2 25.2 2.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 94.1 0.0 0.2 – Net Position: -9,639 9,002 637 – Gross Longs: 24,050 9,002 715 – Gross Shorts: 33,689 0 78 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 inf to 1 9.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 70.6 27.9 42.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.9 3.1 -1.8   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Crude Oil Higher, Gold Price Slips, Crypto: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Vulnerable

COT Bonds Futures Charts: Speculator bets mostly lower this week

Invest Macro Invest Macro 22.05.2022 12:13
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Bonds market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had lower positioning this week. Most of these markets remain bearish (speculator levels and price levels) in the higher interest rate environment of 2022. The exceptions in the COT speculator positioning are the Fed Funds positions which recently turned positive in early April and have maintained a small bullish level in six out of the past seven weeks. The US Treasury Bond positions also turned positive in early March and have also had a small bullish position in nine out of the past eleven weeks. Overall, the bond markets with higher speculator bets for this week were Long US Bond (16,554 contracts), 5-Year Bond (65,450 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (16,954 contracts). The markets with declining speculator bets this week were the 2-Year Bond (-7,808 contracts), Eurodollar (-273,864 contracts), 10-Year Bond (-74,119 contracts), Ultra 10-Year (-2,421 contracts) and the Fed Funds (-147 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend May-17-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index Eurodollar 10,381,883 32 -2,874,451 0 3,300,959 100 -426,508 11 FedFunds 1,796,405 58 49,015 46 -45,484 54 -3,531 51 2-Year 2,376,024 26 -134,637 55 209,074 66 -74,437 18 Long T-Bond 1,244,823 57 32,007 95 -14,575 15 -17,432 39 10-Year 3,666,416 41 -160,091 48 318,592 60 -158,501 42 5-Year 3,791,540 37 -260,224 38 417,629 64 -157,405 38   3-Month Eurodollars Futures: The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,874,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -273,864 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,600,587 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.6 percent. 3-Month Eurodollars Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.2 76.0 3.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.9 44.2 7.8 – Net Position: -2,874,451 3,300,959 -426,508 – Gross Longs: 336,958 7,889,274 386,384 – Gross Shorts: 3,211,409 4,588,315 812,892 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 10.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.5 5.9 4.6   30-Day Federal Funds Futures: The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 49,015 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -147 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,162 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent. 30-Day Federal Funds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.6 75.5 2.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 2.8 78.0 2.3 – Net Position: 49,015 -45,484 -3,531 – Gross Longs: 100,043 1,355,889 37,674 – Gross Shorts: 51,028 1,401,373 41,205 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.7 54.4 50.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.6 -5.3 16.5   2-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -134,637 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,808 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -126,829 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent. 2-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.0 76.6 5.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.6 67.8 8.9 – Net Position: -134,637 209,074 -74,437 – Gross Longs: 307,951 1,818,876 137,690 – Gross Shorts: 442,588 1,609,802 212,127 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.1 65.6 17.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -12.6 8.0 10.7   5-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -260,224 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 65,450 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -325,674 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent. 5-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.9 81.1 7.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.7 70.1 11.7 – Net Position: -260,224 417,629 -157,405 – Gross Longs: 298,615 3,074,092 284,595 – Gross Shorts: 558,839 2,656,463 442,000 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 37.5 64.2 37.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.7 -16.5 15.8   10-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -160,091 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -74,119 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -85,972 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent. 10-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.6 76.9 8.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.9 68.2 13.2 – Net Position: -160,091 318,592 -158,501 – Gross Longs: 314,613 2,819,008 325,049 – Gross Shorts: 474,704 2,500,416 483,550 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 48.1 59.7 42.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 30.8 -29.7 11.0   Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures: The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -97,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,421 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -95,416 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent. Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.6 81.6 12.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.6 65.2 20.7 – Net Position: -97,837 200,995 -103,158 – Gross Longs: 56,209 1,000,137 150,063 – Gross Shorts: 154,046 799,142 253,221 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.4 91.8 53.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.6 -8.2 20.7   US Treasury Bonds Futures: The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 32,007 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 16,554 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,453 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.7 72.5 12.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.2 73.6 13.7 – Net Position: 32,007 -14,575 -17,432 – Gross Longs: 146,002 902,140 152,520 – Gross Shorts: 113,995 916,715 169,952 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 95.0 15.5 38.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.0 -7.4 -6.1   Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures: The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -294,559 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 16,954 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -311,513 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.7 81.8 11.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.3 61.5 9.3 – Net Position: -294,559 264,222 30,337 – Gross Longs: 48,033 1,065,877 151,667 – Gross Shorts: 342,592 801,655 121,330 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.1 44.2 50.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 14.8 -21.4 5.2   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Week 21 Charts: Energy Speculator Positions Mixed

COT Week 21 Charts: Energy Speculator Positions Mixed

Invest Macro Invest Macro 28.05.2022 19:32
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for energy was WTI Crude Oil (9,124 contracts) and Natural Gas (3,442 contracts) with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (126 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Heating Oil (-9,228 contracts) and Brent Crude Oil (-4,422 contracts) with Gasoline (-1,373 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-24-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,711,863 0 334,761 11 -374,627 91 39,866 71 Gold 530,098 22 183,813 14 -211,947 82 28,134 37 Silver 146,456 13 14,103 26 -23,297 88 9,194 3 Copper 186,433 17 -19,633 28 19,288 73 345 27 Palladium 7,919 7 -3,472 2 3,800 98 -328 25 Platinum 65,824 32 1,485 5 -6,683 96 5,198 34 Natural Gas 1,107,496 6 -111,570 45 63,847 51 47,723 93 Brent 183,629 27 -39,289 45 37,488 56 1,801 34 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 729,900 28 188,368 72 -159,047 34 -29,321 21 Corn 1,544,885 29 427,848 85 -372,522 19 -55,326 11 Coffee 211,266 5 37,072 71 -38,484 34 1,412 4 Sugar 847,420 11 209,487 80 -255,450 20 45,963 65 Wheat 326,607 8 26,344 53 -24,339 25 -2,005 100   WTI Crude Oil Futures: The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 334,761 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,124 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 325,637 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent. WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.7 34.1 5.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.1 56.0 2.7 – Net Position: 334,761 -374,627 39,866 – Gross Longs: 422,541 584,496 86,091 – Gross Shorts: 87,780 959,123 46,225 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 10.5 90.7 71.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.5 -9.3 -8.4   Brent Crude Oil Futures: The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -39,289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,422 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,867 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.8 52.6 3.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 36.2 32.2 2.7 – Net Position: -39,289 37,488 1,801 – Gross Longs: 27,144 96,551 6,828 – Gross Shorts: 66,433 59,063 5,027 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.2 55.6 33.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.0 5.9 -7.9   Natural Gas Futures: The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -111,570 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,442 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -115,012 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent. Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.8 37.4 6.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.9 31.6 2.4 – Net Position: -111,570 63,847 47,723 – Gross Longs: 230,219 413,701 74,555 – Gross Shorts: 341,789 349,854 26,832 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.1 51.0 93.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.8 -8.4 0.9   Gasoline Blendstock Futures: The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 32,425 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,798 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.4 55.0 7.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.9 69.1 4.0 – Net Position: 32,425 -43,599 11,174 – Gross Longs: 72,517 170,888 23,596 – Gross Shorts: 40,092 214,487 12,422 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.8 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.1 93.4 87.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.1 6.6 16.3   #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures: The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 6,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,683 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.0 50.8 14.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.1 60.1 6.9 – Net Position: 6,455 -32,434 25,979 – Gross Longs: 59,340 177,626 50,210 – Gross Shorts: 52,885 210,060 24,231 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.9 36.7 88.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -10.3 23.6   Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures: The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 126 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,639 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent. Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 65.8 26.2 1.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 93.5 0.0 0.4 – Net Position: -9,513 9,010 503 – Gross Longs: 22,645 9,010 636 – Gross Shorts: 32,158 0 133 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 inf to 1 4.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 71.1 27.9 37.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.8 3.4 -5.5   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Week 21 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculator bets mostly lower led by Corn & Soybean Oil

COT Week 21 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculator bets mostly lower led by Corn & Soybean Oil

Invest Macro Invest Macro 28.05.2022 20:00
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Soft Commodities market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as only three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning this week while eight markets saw lower positions. Leading the gains for the soft commodities was Sugar (12,857 contracts) and Soybean Meal (8,607 contracts) with Soybeans (4,721 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-45,895 contracts) and Soybean Oil (-16,805 contracts) with Coffee (-1,415 contracts), Live Cattle (-12,283 contracts), Lean Hogs (-407 contracts), Cotton (-6,796 contracts), Cocoa (-10,000 contracts), and Wheat (-2,462 contracts) also coming in with lower bets on the week.   Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-24-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,711,863 0 334,761 11 -374,627 91 39,866 71 Gold 530,098 22 183,813 14 -211,947 82 28,134 37 Silver 146,456 13 14,103 26 -23,297 88 9,194 3 Copper 186,433 17 -19,633 28 19,288 73 345 27 Palladium 7,919 7 -3,472 2 3,800 98 -328 25 Platinum 65,824 32 1,485 5 -6,683 96 5,198 34 Natural Gas 1,107,496 6 -111,570 45 63,847 51 47,723 93 Brent 183,629 27 -39,289 45 37,488 56 1,801 34 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 729,900 28 188,368 72 -159,047 34 -29,321 21 Corn 1,544,885 29 427,848 85 -372,522 19 -55,326 11 Coffee 211,266 5 37,072 71 -38,484 34 1,412 4 Sugar 847,420 11 209,487 80 -255,450 20 45,963 65 Wheat 326,607 8 26,344 53 -24,339 25 -2,005 100   CORN Futures: The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 427,848 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -45,895 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 473,743 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent. CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.5 42.5 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.8 66.7 12.7 – Net Position: 427,848 -372,522 -55,326 – Gross Longs: 563,850 657,258 140,433 – Gross Shorts: 136,002 1,029,780 195,759 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 84.7 18.9 11.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.7 10.1 -2.0   SUGAR Futures: The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 209,487 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,857 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 196,630 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent. SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.0 44.9 10.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.3 75.0 5.3 – Net Position: 209,487 -255,450 45,963 – Gross Longs: 262,661 380,523 90,969 – Gross Shorts: 53,174 635,973 45,006 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 79.7 19.7 64.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.2 8.8 -19.5   COFFEE Futures: The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 37,072 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,415 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,487 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.0 54.1 3.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.5 72.3 3.2 – Net Position: 37,072 -38,484 1,412 – Gross Longs: 46,580 114,208 8,167 – Gross Shorts: 9,508 152,692 6,755 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.9 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 70.9 34.3 4.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.4 12.9 -33.9   SOYBEANS Futures: The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 188,368 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,721 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 183,647 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent. SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.4 47.3 6.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.5 69.1 10.8 – Net Position: 188,368 -159,047 -29,321 – Gross Longs: 236,164 345,076 49,551 – Gross Shorts: 47,796 504,123 78,872 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.9 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 71.6 34.3 21.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.0 3.3 -2.9   SOYBEAN OIL Futures: The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 79,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -16,805 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 96,301 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.1 percent. SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.6 47.5 9.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.3 74.0 4.5 – Net Position: 79,496 -98,691 19,195 – Gross Longs: 106,705 177,213 35,857 – Gross Shorts: 27,209 275,904 16,662 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.6 36.2 85.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -12.0 12.2 -6.0   SOYBEAN MEAL Futures: The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 81,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,607 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,300 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent. SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.5 46.5 13.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.7 76.6 6.2 – Net Position: 81,907 -108,388 26,481 – Gross Longs: 102,564 167,414 48,827 – Gross Shorts: 20,657 275,802 22,346 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 73.1 26.6 70.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -19.1 20.7 -27.9   LIVE CATTLE Futures: The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 22,747 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,283 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,030 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent. LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.7 41.3 11.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.1 48.8 11.7 – Net Position: 22,747 -22,153 -594 – Gross Longs: 99,928 122,357 34,015 – Gross Shorts: 77,181 144,510 34,609 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 7.9 83.0 79.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -36.5 29.0 27.5   LEAN HOGS Futures: The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 7,358 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -407 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,765 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent. LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.3 41.7 10.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.6 42.3 13.3 – Net Position: 7,358 -1,239 -6,119 – Gross Longs: 55,555 81,805 19,958 – Gross Shorts: 48,197 83,044 26,077 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 14.8 92.0 64.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -36.4 40.7 -5.5   COTTON Futures: The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 72,520 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,796 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 79,316 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent. COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.5 36.7 8.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.0 77.5 3.2 – Net Position: 72,520 -83,537 11,017 – Gross Longs: 86,947 75,106 17,532 – Gross Shorts: 14,427 158,643 6,515 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.9 29.2 82.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.8 7.7 -15.5   COCOA Futures: The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 8,583 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -10,000 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,583 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent. COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.9 44.5 5.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.0 49.0 4.0 – Net Position: 8,583 -13,540 4,957 – Gross Longs: 89,159 132,424 16,784 – Gross Shorts: 80,576 145,964 11,827 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.0 72.7 46.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -30.0 32.2 -25.0   WHEAT Futures: The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 26,344 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,462 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,806 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.2 35.4 10.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.1 42.9 10.9 – Net Position: 26,344 -24,339 -2,005 – Gross Longs: 118,170 115,722 33,634 – Gross Shorts: 91,826 140,061 35,639 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.3 25.1 100.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 3.2 -4.4 3.2   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Week 21 Charts: Bonds Speculator bets mostly lower this week

COT Week 21 Charts: Bonds Speculator bets mostly lower this week

Invest Macro Invest Macro 28.05.2022 20:32
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. COT bonds market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as only three out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while five markets saw lower positions. Leading the gains for bonds was the 5-Year Bond (139,697 contracts) and the 2-Year Bond (99,344 contracts) with the Eurodollar (41,671 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the 10-Year Bond (-65,033 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (-13,336 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year (-1,088 contracts), Long US Bond (-3,505 contracts) and the Fed Funds (-6,524 contracts) also coming in with lower bets on the week. Speculator strength standings for each Bond Market where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend May-24-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index Eurodollar 10,441,566 33 -2,832,780 1 3,227,860 99 -395,080 17 FedFunds 1,859,067 65 42,491 45 -38,493 55 -3,998 50 2-Year 2,526,000 32 -35,293 75 106,854 43 -71,561 19 Long T-Bond 1,267,244 60 28,502 94 -11,224 17 -17,278 39 10-Year 3,662,628 41 -225,124 38 376,665 67 -151,541 44 5-Year 4,011,412 52 -120,527 62 292,048 49 -171,521 34   3-Month Eurodollars Futures: The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,832,780 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 41,671 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,874,451 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent. 3-Month Eurodollars Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.4 75.4 3.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.5 44.5 7.5 – Net Position: -2,832,780 3,227,860 -395,080 – Gross Longs: 351,909 7,877,754 384,474 – Gross Shorts: 3,184,689 4,649,894 779,554 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.8 98.7 17.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.5 3.1 3.7   30-Day Federal Funds Futures: The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 42,491 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,524 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,015 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent. 30-Day Federal Funds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.4 75.5 2.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.1 77.5 2.3 – Net Position: 42,491 -38,493 -3,998 – Gross Longs: 119,202 1,403,144 39,289 – Gross Shorts: 76,711 1,441,637 43,287 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.9 55.2 49.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.0 -2.6 33.5   2-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -35,293 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 99,344 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -134,637 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent. 2-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.3 73.0 5.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.7 68.8 8.7 – Net Position: -35,293 106,854 -71,561 – Gross Longs: 361,614 1,845,029 147,143 – Gross Shorts: 396,907 1,738,175 218,704 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 75.1 43.2 18.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.2 -11.4 -1.5   5-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -120,527 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 139,697 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -260,224 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent. 5-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.1 77.1 9.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.1 69.8 14.0 – Net Position: -120,527 292,048 -171,521 – Gross Longs: 405,475 3,093,412 388,207 – Gross Shorts: 526,002 2,801,364 559,728 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 62.1 48.9 33.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 37.6 -30.6 10.2   10-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -225,124 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -65,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -160,091 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent. 10-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.5 77.4 9.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.6 67.1 13.8 – Net Position: -225,124 376,665 -151,541 – Gross Longs: 273,667 2,834,111 354,203 – Gross Shorts: 498,791 2,457,446 505,744 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.2 66.6 43.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.4 -14.4 11.0   Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures: The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -98,925 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,088 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -97,837 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent. Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.3 80.9 11.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.0 64.5 20.7 – Net Position: -98,925 211,834 -112,909 – Gross Longs: 68,305 1,044,490 153,665 – Gross Shorts: 167,230 832,656 266,574 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.1 94.6 47.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.3 0.3 20.8   US Treasury Bonds Futures: The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 28,502 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,505 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,007 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent. US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.2 72.8 14.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.9 73.7 15.4 – Net Position: 28,502 -11,224 -17,278 – Gross Longs: 141,452 922,729 177,518 – Gross Shorts: 112,950 933,953 194,796 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 93.9 16.6 38.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.0 -7.5 -7.9   Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures: The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -307,895 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,336 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -294,559 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent. Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.6 81.8 11.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.8 60.9 10.3 – Net Position: -307,895 290,252 17,643 – Gross Longs: 50,153 1,136,228 161,147 – Gross Shorts: 358,048 845,976 143,504 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.6 57.0 40.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.2 -7.2 -7.3   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Metals Speculators raise bets for Copper and Gold after multi-week slides

COT Metals Speculators raise bets for Copper and Gold after multi-week slides

Invest Macro Invest Macro 28.05.2022 21:00
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT metals data is the bounce-back in Gold and Copper speculator bets after multiple down weeks for both of these metals. Copper positions saw a small turnaround with a +4,775 contract gain this week after falling for six consecutive weeks which amounted to a total drop by -60,550 net positions from April 12th to May 17th. Copper has been particularly hard hit by the lockdowns in China and the effect that it has had on the industrial and manufacturing economy there. Copper speculator bets have now been oscillating at the lowest levels in approximately two years. Gold positions, meanwhile, rose by +8,453 contracts this week after declining in the previous five weeks and by a total of -78,927 contracts in that period. Gold bullish bets are under the +200,000 net contract level for a fourth straight week after spending the previous ten weeks above that threshold. Currently in 2022, Gold positions are averaging +221,416 weekly contracts so far compared to an average of +204,623 weekly contracts over 2021 and an average of +262,052 weekly contracts over 2020. Overall, the markets with higher speculator bets this week were Gold (8,453 contracts) and Copper (4,775 contracts) while the markets with declining speculator bets this week were Silver (-2,011 contracts), Platinum (-718 contracts) and Palladium (-257 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each market where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-24-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,711,863 0 334,761 11 -374,627 91 39,866 71 Gold 530,098 22 183,813 14 -211,947 82 28,134 37 Silver 146,456 13 14,103 26 -23,297 88 9,194 3 Copper 186,433 17 -19,633 28 19,288 73 345 27 Palladium 7,919 7 -3,472 2 3,800 98 -328 25 Platinum 65,824 32 1,485 5 -6,683 96 5,198 34 Natural Gas 1,107,496 6 -111,570 45 63,847 51 47,723 93 Brent 183,629 27 -39,289 45 37,488 56 1,801 34 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 729,900 28 188,368 72 -159,047 34 -29,321 21 Corn 1,544,885 29 427,848 85 -372,522 19 -55,326 11 Coffee 211,266 5 37,072 71 -38,484 34 1,412 4 Sugar 847,420 11 209,487 80 -255,450 20 45,963 65 Wheat 326,607 8 26,344 53 -24,339 25 -2,005 100   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 183,813 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,453 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 175,360 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 53.2 24.6 8.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.6 64.6 3.6 – Net Position: 183,813 -211,947 28,134 – Gross Longs: 282,202 130,364 47,411 – Gross Shorts: 98,389 342,311 19,277 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.9 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 14.0 81.5 37.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -35.7 35.7 -18.1   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 14,103 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,011 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,114 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.6 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 40.1 38.9 15.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.5 54.8 9.5 – Net Position: 14,103 -23,297 9,194 – Gross Longs: 58,748 56,910 23,064 – Gross Shorts: 44,645 80,207 13,870 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.1 87.6 2.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -36.9 45.6 -46.6   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -19,633 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,775 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,408 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.0 53.3 8.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.6 42.9 7.9 – Net Position: -19,633 19,288 345 – Gross Longs: 54,130 99,318 14,993 – Gross Shorts: 73,763 80,030 14,648 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.2 72.7 27.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -30.9 33.4 -32.1   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 1,485 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -718 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,203 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 39.6 41.0 13.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.3 51.2 5.1 – Net Position: 1,485 -6,683 5,198 – Gross Longs: 26,052 27,002 8,533 – Gross Shorts: 24,567 33,685 3,335 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 5.5 95.8 34.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.0 9.0 -22.7   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,472 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -257 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,215 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.2 70.1 12.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 53.0 22.2 16.4 – Net Position: -3,472 3,800 -328 – Gross Longs: 729 5,555 974 – Gross Shorts: 4,201 1,755 1,302 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 3.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 1.7 98.1 24.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.2 13.7 -55.5   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Currency Speculators reboot their Euro bullish bets to a 6-Week High

Currency Speculators reboot their Euro bullish bets to a 6-Week High

Invest Macro Invest Macro 28.05.2022 21:32
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Click to Enlarge Highlighting the COT currency data is the bounce-back for the Euro currency futures contracts. Euro speculative positions jumped by over +18,000 contracts this week and rose for a third consecutive week. This week marked the second time in the past three weeks that speculator positions increased by more than +18,000 contracts (+22,907 contracts on May 10th) and now Euro bets have gained by a total of +45,308 contracts over the past three weeks. The speculator’s bullish position marks the highest standing of the past six weeks at +38,930 contracts. Euro speculator positions had recently fallen into a bearish speculative level on May 3rd (-6,378 contracts) after dropping by a total of -45,438 contracts from April 19th to May 3rd. This was the first bearish position for the Euro since early January. The speculator sentiment has been weaker so far in 2022 compared to preceding years as Euro bets are averaging just +29,199 weekly contracts in 2022. This compares to the Euro bets average of +60,837 weekly contracts over 2021 and an average of +92,464 weekly contracts over 2020. The recent improvement in Euro positions comes amid increasing expectations for the European Central Bank to start raising interest rates higher and end their negative interest rate regime in the third quarter. The Euro exchange rate recently hit its lowest level versus the US Dollar since January of 2017 with a drop to approximately 1.350 (EUR/USD) on May 13th. Since then, the Euro has rallied over the past couple of weeks and closed Friday at the 1.0733 exchange rate. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Euro (18,591 contracts), US Dollar Index (1,826 contracts), Japanese yen (2,865 contracts), Brazil real (619 contracts), Canadian dollar (1,809 contracts), Mexican peso (1,577 contracts) and Bitcoin (43 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Australian dollar (-804 contracts), Swiss franc (-3,081 contracts), British pound sterling (-1,131 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (-1,554 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each market where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend May-24-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 61,857 93 38,039 91 -40,877 7 2,838 48 EUR 708,938 86 38,930 47 -72,600 55 33,670 30 GBP 253,864 73 -80,372 16 97,042 87 -16,670 21 JPY 237,256 80 -99,444 8 106,699 88 -7,255 39 CHF 49,918 38 -19,673 31 31,694 76 -12,021 17 CAD 138,508 22 -12,687 30 6,933 71 5,754 41 AUD 158,615 51 -45,446 43 53,269 59 -7,823 33 NZD 59,279 61 -19,321 39 22,703 65 -3,382 13 MXN 177,125 39 29,792 40 -34,352 58 4,560 62 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 63,976 59 38,714 88 -40,501 12 1,787 86 Bitcoin 11,729 64 849 100 -817 0 -32 12   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 38,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,826 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,213 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 86.8 3.5 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.3 69.6 3.6 – Net Position: 38,039 -40,877 2,838 – Gross Longs: 53,675 2,157 5,076 – Gross Shorts: 15,636 43,034 2,238 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.4 to 1 0.1 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.4 6.7 47.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 14.5 -8.0 -39.1   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 38,930 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 18,591 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,339 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.4 51.7 12.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.9 61.9 7.6 – Net Position: 38,930 -72,600 33,670 – Gross Longs: 237,072 366,345 87,892 – Gross Shorts: 198,142 438,945 54,222 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.0 55.4 30.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.0 -3.4 19.8   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -80,372 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,131 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,241 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.2 80.3 7.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.9 42.1 14.1 – Net Position: -80,372 97,042 -16,670 – Gross Longs: 25,936 203,802 19,107 – Gross Shorts: 106,308 106,760 35,777 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.9 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.1 87.1 21.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -19.7 15.4 2.5   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -99,444 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,865 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,309 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.0 81.0 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.9 36.0 13.5 – Net Position: -99,444 106,699 -7,255 – Gross Longs: 16,567 192,215 24,858 – Gross Shorts: 116,011 85,516 32,113 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 7.6 87.7 38.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.6 -12.3 26.0   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -19,673 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,081 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,592 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 2.7 80.0 16.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 42.1 16.5 40.7 – Net Position: -19,673 31,694 -12,021 – Gross Longs: 1,355 39,913 8,308 – Gross Shorts: 21,028 8,219 20,329 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 4.9 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 30.8 76.2 16.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.8 12.1 -12.4   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -12,687 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,809 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,496 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.9 54.1 23.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.1 49.1 19.0 – Net Position: -12,687 6,933 5,754 – Gross Longs: 28,999 74,953 32,048 – Gross Shorts: 41,686 68,020 26,294 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 30.4 71.1 41.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -25.9 32.1 -30.9   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -45,446 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -804 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,642 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.1 62.7 11.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.7 29.1 16.7 – Net Position: -45,446 53,269 -7,823 – Gross Longs: 36,579 99,401 18,615 – Gross Shorts: 82,025 46,132 26,438 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.7 58.6 33.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.5 26.4 -45.5   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -19,321 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,554 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,767 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.1 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.1 76.7 3.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.7 38.4 9.4 – Net Position: -19,321 22,703 -3,382 – Gross Longs: 10,749 45,458 2,202 – Gross Shorts: 30,070 22,755 5,584 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.8 65.4 13.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -31.9 35.7 -46.9   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 29,792 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,577 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,215 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 46.9 47.7 4.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.1 67.1 1.7 – Net Position: 29,792 -34,352 4,560 – Gross Longs: 83,031 84,474 7,605 – Gross Shorts: 53,239 118,826 3,045 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 40.1 58.5 62.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.3 -6.2 -0.1   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 38,714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 619 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,095 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 70.5 22.1 6.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.9 85.4 3.2 – Net Position: 38,714 -40,501 1,787 – Gross Longs: 45,076 14,132 3,826 – Gross Shorts: 6,362 54,633 2,039 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.1 to 1 0.3 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.4 11.8 85.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.3 8.2 -12.2   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of 849 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 43 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 806 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 82.9 1.2 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 75.7 8.2 9.4 – Net Position: 849 -817 -32 – Gross Longs: 9,723 141 1,072 – Gross Shorts: 8,874 958 1,104 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.1 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 3.6 12.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.0 -23.6 -6.9   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
The Swing Overview – Week 20 2022

The Swing Overview – Week 20 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 02.06.2022 16:36
The Swing Overview – Week 20 The markets remain volatile and fragile, as shown by the VIX fear index, which has again surpassed the level 30 points. However, equity indices are at interesting supports and there could be some short-term recovery. The euro has bounced off its support in anticipation of tighter monetary policy and the gold is holding its price tag above $1,800 per troy ounce. Is the gold back in investors' favor again? Macroeconomic data The week started with a set of worse data from the Chinese economy, which showed that industrial production contracted by 2.9% year-on-year basis and the retail sales fell by 11.1%. The data shows the latest measures for the country's current COVID-19 outbreak are taking a toll on the economy. To support the slowing economy, China cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.15% on Friday morning, more than analysts expected. While this will not be enough to stave off current downside risks, markets may respond to expectation of more easing in the future. On a positive note, data from the US showed retail sales rose by 0.9% in April and industrial production rose by 1.1% in April. Inflation data in Europe was important. It showed that inflation in the euro area slowed down a little, reaching 7.4% in April compared to 7.5% in March. In Canada, on the other hand, the inflation continued to rise, reaching 6.8% (6.7% in March) and in the UK inflation was 9% in April (7% in the previous month). Several factors are contributing to the higher inflation figures: the ongoing war in Ukraine, problems in logistics chains and the effects of the lockdown in China. Concerns about the impact of higher inflation are showing up in the bond market. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield has come down from the 3.2% it reached on 9 May and is currently at 2.8%. This means that demand for bonds is rising and they are once again becoming an asset for times of uncertainty.  Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields and USD index on a daily chart   Equity indices on supports Global equities fell significantly in the past week, reaching significant price supports. Thus, there could be some form of short-term bounce. Although a cautious rally began on Thursday, which was then boosted by China's decision to cut interest rates in the early hours of Friday, there is still plenty of fear among investors and according to Louis Dudley of Federated Hermes, cash holdings have reached its highest level since September 2001, suggesting strong bearish sentiment. Supply chain problems have been highlighted by companies such as Cisco Systems, which has warned of persistent parts shortages. That knocked its shares down by 13.7%. The drop made it the latest big-stock company to post its biggest decline in more than a decade last week. The main risks that continue to cause volatility and great uncertainty are thus leading investors to buy "safe" assets such as the US bonds and the Swiss franc. Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart From a technical analysis perspective, the US SP 500 index continues to move in a downtrend as the market has formed a lower low while being below both the SMA 100 and EMA 50 moving averages on the H4 and daily charts. The nearest resistance is 4,080 - 4,100. The next resistance is at 4,140 and especially 4,293 - 4,300. Support is at 3,860 - 3,900 level. German DAX index The index continues to move in a downtrend along with the major world indices. The price has reached the support which is at 13,680 – 13,700 and the moving average EMA 50 on the H4 chart is above the SMA 100. This could indicate a short-term signal for some upward correction. However, the main trend according to the daily chart is still downwards. The nearest resistance is at 14,260 - 14,330 level. Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The euro has bounced off its support The EUR/USD currency pair benefited last week from the US dollar moving away from its 20-year highs while on the euro, investors are expecting a tightening economy and a rise in interest rates, which the ECB has not risen yet as one of the few banks. Figure 4: The EURUSD on H4 and daily chart   Significant support is at the price around 1.0350 - 1.040. Current resistance is at 1.650 - 1.700.   The Gold in investors' attention again The gold has underperformed over the past month, falling by 10% since April when the price reached USD 2,000 per ounce. But there is now strong risk aversion in the markets, as indicated by the stock markets, which have fallen. The gold, on the other hand, has started to rise. Inflation fears are a possible reason, and investors have begun to accumulate the gold for protection against rising prices. The second reason is that the gold is inversely correlated with the US dollar. The dollar has come down from its 20-year highs, which has allowed the gold to bounce off its support.  Figure 5: The gold on H4 and daily chart The first resistance is at $1,860 per ounce. The support is at $1,830 - $1,840 per ounce. The next support is then at $1,805 - $1,807 and especially at $1,800 per ounce.
Crypto Focus: А Stable Week of the Crypto Market

Crypto Focus: А Stable Week of the Crypto Market

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 03.06.2022 10:37
So far, it’s been another week of what could have been. We saw solid gains on most of the top 10 turn into heavy selling that retraced most of the move. ETH, for instance, lost 11% of gains by Friday’s session. BTC 6.66% while coins like AVAX dipped into the red. BNB and SOL also struggled to find buyer demand tracking lower most of the week. XRP, like Bitcoin, saw plenty of buyer demand throughout the week but failed to hold gains late in the week, trimming gains into Friday. ADA bounced back this week, and it was nice to see the coin trading up to 25% higher before the fade set in. Bitcoin started the week below 30K. This set off a few alarm bells, but those worries subsided after the market leader moved back above 30k. Late week news hit that BTC mining has been banned in New York, and miners are reported to have been offloading their holdings. Ore worry hit the stable coin markets as DEI lost its peg, falling below 0.4. The stable coin issues could continue to undercut confidence in the crypto market. It was only a few weeks ago we saw the utter carnage that UST and Luna caused. Quite a few of the top ten look to be threatening at new pushes lower late into the week, but sellers have tried before to beat levels before being rejected. This week will look at the top 10 index. We can see that price overall remains in a range. The levels we want to see hold are 13,034 and 12,670. Any breaks below 12,670 signals the downtrend is back on. If we can see a close above 13,660, this could suggest buyers are back in control of short term momentum. The post Crypto Focus: А Stable Week of the Crypto Market appeared first on Eightcap.
COT Week 22 Charts: Energy Speculator Positions Mixed led by Heating Oil, Gasoline

COT Week 22 Charts: Energy Speculator Positions Mixed led by Heating Oil, Gasoline

Invest Macro Invest Macro 04.06.2022 21:33
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets also had lower contracts. Leading the gains for energy were Heating Oil (6,319 contracts), Gasoline (1,265 contracts) and Natural Gas (1,202 contracts). Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-1,785 contracts) and Brent Crude Oil (-1,583 contracts) with Bloomberg Commodity Index (-1,048 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index is above its midpoint for the past 3 years while all the other markets are below the 50 percent level. Strength score trends (or move index, that show 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that heating oil, natural gas and WTI crude have had rising scores over the past six weeks. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-31-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,787,928 9 332,976 10 -373,761 91 40,785 72 Gold 513,722 18 172,589 5 -200,056 95 27,467 32 Silver 147,301 14 13,997 15 -23,861 99 9,864 6 Copper 189,923 19 -18,025 29 15,425 70 2,600 40 Palladium 6,538 1 -3,133 4 3,221 95 -88 39 Platinum 67,964 35 2,363 7 -6,501 96 4,138 20 Natural Gas 1,115,815 7 -110,368 45 59,679 50 50,689 100 Brent 181,699 25 -40,872 43 38,941 58 1,931 35 Heating Oil 248,966 15 121 43 -17,967 52 17,846 60 Soybeans 753,373 34 186,078 71 -158,757 34 -27,321 25 Corn 1,564,217 32 404,200 82 -353,348 22 -50,852 14 Coffee 214,170 8 43,015 76 -45,757 28 2,742 17 Sugar 848,463 11 201,680 78 -240,752 23 39,072 56 Wheat 331,136 11 22,309 48 -18,647 33 -3,662 91   WTI Crude Oil Futures: The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 332,976 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,785 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 334,761 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.6 34.8 5.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.0 55.7 2.7 – Net Position: 332,976 -373,761 40,785 – Gross Longs: 421,683 622,867 89,200 – Gross Shorts: 88,707 996,628 48,415 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 9.9 91.0 72.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.9 -8.7 -3.9   Brent Crude Oil Futures: The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -40,872 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,289 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent. Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.7 54.0 4.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.2 32.6 3.2 – Net Position: -40,872 38,941 1,931 – Gross Longs: 26,712 98,147 7,700 – Gross Shorts: 67,584 59,206 5,769 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.6 58.0 35.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.3 2.1 -6.9   Natural Gas Futures: The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -110,368 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -111,570 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.5 37.4 6.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.4 32.0 2.3 – Net Position: -110,368 59,679 50,689 – Gross Longs: 228,487 417,276 75,815 – Gross Shorts: 338,855 357,597 25,126 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 3.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.5 49.6 100.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.9 -7.1 6.6   Gasoline Blendstock Futures: The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 33,690 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,265 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,425 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.7 53.9 7.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.8 68.9 3.7 – Net Position: 33,690 -46,032 12,342 – Gross Longs: 76,089 165,784 23,735 – Gross Shorts: 42,399 211,816 11,393 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.8 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 4.4 91.0 94.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.0 4.9 26.7   #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures: The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 121 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,319 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,198 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent. Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.4 49.7 16.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.4 56.9 9.5 – Net Position: 121 -17,967 17,846 – Gross Longs: 43,360 123,782 41,618 – Gross Shorts: 43,239 141,749 23,772 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.6 52.1 60.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.5 -7.4 -7.8   Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures: The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -10,561 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,048 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,513 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent. Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 63.6 28.5 1.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 93.7 0.0 0.4 – Net Position: -10,561 10,027 534 – Gross Longs: 22,382 10,027 679 – Gross Shorts: 32,943 0 145 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 inf to 1 4.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.1 31.9 38.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.8 7.7 -7.6   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Week 22 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculators Positions mostly lower led by Corn & Sugar

COT Week 22 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculators Positions mostly lower led by Corn & Sugar

Invest Macro Invest Macro 04.06.2022 21:40
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Soft Commodities speculator bets were mostly lower again this week as only three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other eight markets had lower positions. Leading the gains for the soft commodities was Coffee (5,943 contracts) and Lean Hogs (1,859 contracts) with Cocoa (1,570 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-23,648 contracts) and Sugar (-7,807 contracts) with Soybean Oil (-4,455 contracts), Wheat (-4,035 contracts), Live Cattle (-3,207 contracts), Soybeans (-2,290 contracts), Cotton (-1,836 contracts) and Soybean Meal (-1,153 contracts) also coming in with lower bets on the week. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that most of the softs markets are above their midpoints (50 percent) for the past 3 years as the soft commodities have been highly bid and have had strong speculator sentiment. Strength score trends (or move index, that show 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that despite most of the softs markets having high speculator strength scores, there has been a cool-off for these markets over the past six weeks. Live cattle and lean hogs have seen the most weakness over the past six weeks followed by Cocoa and Soybean Meal. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-31-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,787,928 9 332,976 10 -373,761 91 40,785 72 Gold 513,722 18 172,589 5 -200,056 95 27,467 32 Silver 147,301 14 13,997 15 -23,861 99 9,864 6 Copper 189,923 19 -18,025 29 15,425 70 2,600 40 Palladium 6,538 1 -3,133 4 3,221 95 -88 39 Platinum 67,964 35 2,363 7 -6,501 96 4,138 20 Natural Gas 1,115,815 7 -110,368 45 59,679 50 50,689 100 Brent 181,699 25 -40,872 43 38,941 58 1,931 35 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 753,373 34 186,078 71 -158,757 34 -27,321 25 Corn 1,564,217 32 404,200 82 -353,348 22 -50,852 14 Coffee 214,170 8 43,015 76 -45,757 28 2,742 17 Sugar 848,463 11 201,680 78 -240,752 23 39,072 56 Wheat 331,136 11 22,309 48 -18,647 33 -3,662 91   CORN Futures: The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 404,200 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -23,648 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 427,848 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent. CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.3 42.1 9.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.4 64.6 12.2 – Net Position: 404,200 -353,348 -50,852 – Gross Longs: 551,849 657,849 140,307 – Gross Shorts: 147,649 1,011,197 191,159 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 81.7 21.6 13.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -12.3 14.6 -3.7   SUGAR Futures: The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 201,680 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,807 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 209,487 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent. SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.6 45.1 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.8 73.5 5.9 – Net Position: 201,680 -240,752 39,072 – Gross Longs: 259,634 382,461 89,391 – Gross Shorts: 57,954 623,213 50,319 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 78.1 22.5 56.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.8 10.4 -20.9   COFFEE Futures: The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 43,015 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,072 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.5 51.5 4.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 3.4 72.9 3.1 – Net Position: 43,015 -45,757 2,742 – Gross Longs: 50,242 110,322 9,389 – Gross Shorts: 7,227 156,079 6,647 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.0 27.7 17.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.0 -0.3 -9.0   SOYBEANS Futures: The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 186,078 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,290 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 188,368 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent. SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.6 47.3 6.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.9 68.3 10.2 – Net Position: 186,078 -158,757 -27,321 – Gross Longs: 237,836 356,115 49,891 – Gross Shorts: 51,758 514,872 77,212 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 70.9 34.4 24.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.3 4.6 -3.6   SOYBEAN OIL Futures: The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 75,041 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,455 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 79,496 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent. SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.4 47.5 9.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.8 71.6 4.8 – Net Position: 75,041 -92,287 17,246 – Gross Longs: 105,091 181,857 35,597 – Gross Shorts: 30,050 274,144 18,351 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 57.7 40.2 77.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -19.3 21.0 -18.4   SOYBEAN MEAL Futures: The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 80,754 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,153 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,907 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent. SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.7 44.2 13.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.9 73.7 5.5 – Net Position: 80,754 -109,384 28,630 – Gross Longs: 106,453 163,966 48,928 – Gross Shorts: 25,699 273,350 20,298 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 72.4 26.1 81.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -23.4 23.7 -17.4   LIVE CATTLE Futures: The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 19,540 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,207 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,747 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent. LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.2 40.6 11.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.7 46.8 11.9 – Net Position: 19,540 -18,566 -974 – Gross Longs: 102,315 121,350 34,613 – Gross Shorts: 82,775 139,916 35,587 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.9 87.9 78.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -43.9 37.4 26.6   LEAN HOGS Futures: The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 9,217 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,859 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,358 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent. LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.6 42.0 9.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.8 43.2 13.3 – Net Position: 9,217 -2,209 -7,008 – Gross Longs: 57,323 81,465 18,708 – Gross Shorts: 48,106 83,674 25,716 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.8 90.9 60.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -36.8 42.6 -11.8   COTTON Futures: The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 70,684 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,836 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 72,520 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent. COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 40.5 37.9 8.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.2 76.0 3.3 – Net Position: 70,684 -80,864 10,180 – Gross Longs: 85,974 80,446 17,230 – Gross Shorts: 15,290 161,310 7,050 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.7 30.7 76.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.2 10.1 -17.8   COCOA Futures: The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 10,153 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,570 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,583 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent. COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.4 43.0 5.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.1 47.7 4.2 – Net Position: 10,153 -14,322 4,169 – Gross Longs: 92,946 131,539 16,931 – Gross Shorts: 82,793 145,861 12,762 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.6 72.0 38.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -25.7 28.0 -25.8   WHEAT Futures: The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 22,309 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,035 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,344 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent. WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.4 35.5 9.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.7 41.1 11.0 – Net Position: 22,309 -18,647 -3,662 – Gross Longs: 113,964 117,565 32,778 – Gross Shorts: 91,655 136,212 36,440 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 48.1 33.1 91.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.2 2.5 -4.4   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Week 22 Charts: Bonds Speculator positions lower across the board

COT Week 22 Charts: Bonds Speculator positions lower across the board

Invest Macro Invest Macro 04.06.2022 21:50
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. COT bonds market speculator bets were lower this week as all eight bond markets we cover had lower positioning this week. Leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the 5-Year Bond (-97,261 contracts) and the 2-Year Bond (-92,825 contracts) with the Eurodollar (-22,436 contracts), Fed Funds (-17,284 contracts), 10-Year Bond (-13,783 contracts), Long US Bond (-8,741 contracts), Ultra 10-Year (-6,442 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (-1,383 contracts) also coming in with lower bets on the week.   Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that most of the bond markets are below their midpoints (50 percent) for the past 3 years.  The US Treasury Bond, 2-Year and the Ultra US Bond have all gone above the midpoint and the US Treasury Bond has now entered extreme bullish levels as compared to its range over the past 3 years. Strength score trends (or move index, that show 6-week changes in strength scores) shows a mixed picture with half the bond markets rising over the past six weeks and half not. Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend May-31-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index Eurodollar 10,374,105 31 -2,855,216 0 3,260,722 99 -405,506 15 FedFunds 1,907,235 69 25,207 43 -17,303 58 -7,904 40 2-Year 2,219,497 19 -128,118 56 193,103 62 -64,985 21 Long T-Bond 1,212,023 51 19,761 91 1,627 21 -21,388 36 10-Year 3,470,808 28 -238,907 36 411,183 71 -172,276 39 5-Year 3,804,715 40 -217,788 45 367,355 58 -149,567 40   3-Month Eurodollars Futures: The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,855,216 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -22,436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,832,780 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent. 3-Month Eurodollars Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.2 75.4 3.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.7 44.0 7.5 – Net Position: -2,855,216 3,260,722 -405,506 – Gross Longs: 332,811 7,825,376 371,699 – Gross Shorts: 3,188,027 4,564,654 777,205 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.4 99.3 15.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.5 4.8 6.9   30-Day Federal Funds Futures: The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of 25,207 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -17,284 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,491 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent. 30-Day Federal Funds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.2 75.9 1.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.8 76.8 2.4 – Net Position: 25,207 -17,303 -7,904 – Gross Longs: 117,407 1,448,066 37,077 – Gross Shorts: 92,200 1,465,369 44,981 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.7 57.8 39.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.8 -1.4 11.0   2-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -128,118 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -92,825 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,293 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent. 2-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.9 77.2 6.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.6 68.5 9.4 – Net Position: -128,118 193,103 -64,985 – Gross Longs: 263,530 1,714,483 143,470 – Gross Shorts: 391,648 1,521,380 208,455 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.4 62.1 21.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.2 -5.1 12.2   5-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -217,788 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -97,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -120,527 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent. 5-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.1 81.4 7.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.9 71.7 11.4 – Net Position: -217,788 367,355 -149,567 – Gross Longs: 348,119 3,096,723 285,676 – Gross Shorts: 565,907 2,729,368 435,243 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.0 58.1 39.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.5 -15.9 16.3   10-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -238,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,783 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -225,124 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent. 10-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.1 79.6 9.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.0 67.8 14.0 – Net Position: -238,907 411,183 -172,276 – Gross Longs: 245,557 2,764,399 313,090 – Gross Shorts: 484,464 2,353,216 485,366 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 36.1 70.7 38.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 14.2 -13.1 3.9   Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures: The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -105,367 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,442 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -98,925 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent. Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.8 81.8 11.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.4 64.7 20.4 – Net Position: -105,367 210,588 -105,221 – Gross Longs: 59,643 1,010,524 147,144 – Gross Shorts: 165,010 799,936 252,365 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 1.4 94.3 52.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.3 5.0 5.2   US Treasury Bonds Futures: The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of 19,761 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,741 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,502 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent. US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.9 75.9 13.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.3 75.8 14.7 – Net Position: 19,761 1,627 -21,388 – Gross Longs: 120,014 920,309 157,340 – Gross Shorts: 100,253 918,682 178,728 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.0 20.6 35.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.1 -6.3 -8.8   Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures: The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -309,278 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,383 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -307,895 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent. Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.2 83.4 11.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.2 61.1 9.9 – Net Position: -309,278 287,591 21,687 – Gross Longs: 41,190 1,074,846 148,794 – Gross Shorts: 350,468 787,255 127,107 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.0 55.7 43.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.5 -11.4 -3.5   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Metals Speculators continue to decrease their Gold & Silver bullish bets

COT Metals Speculators continue to decrease their Gold & Silver bullish bets

Invest Macro Invest Macro 04.06.2022 22:22
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Metals large speculator bets were mostly higher this week as three out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for metals was Copper (1,608 contracts) with Platinum (878 contracts) and Palladium (339 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Gold (-11,224 contracts) while Silver (-106 contracts) also registered lower bets on the week. Gold positions dropped by over -11,000 contracts this week and have now been lower in nine out of the past twelve weeks. The gold position has declined by a total of -101,799 contracts over that 12-week time period. This weakness has now pushed the gold speculator net standing to the lowest level of the past seventeen weeks, dating back to February 1st. Silver bets, meanwhile, have fallen for six consecutive weeks and by a total of -32,432 contracts over that period. Silver speculators have bailed out of their bullish positions since early March 3rd when the net position hit a 43-week high at +52,297 contracts. Currently, the net position has fallen all the way down to +13,997 contracts this week which marks the lowest level in the past 155 weeks, dating back to June 11th of 2019. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that most of the metals markets are in extreme bearish levels (except Gold which is just above the 20 percent threshold). Strength score trends (or move index, that show 6-week changes in strength scores) shows the recent weakness of all of the metals market. Silver, Gold and Copper have fallen particularly hard in six weeks. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend May-31-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,787,928 9 332,976 10 -373,761 91 40,785 72 Gold 513,722 18 172,589 5 -200,056 95 27,467 32 Silver 147,301 14 13,997 15 -23,861 99 9,864 6 Copper 189,923 19 -18,025 29 15,425 70 2,600 40 Palladium 6,538 1 -3,133 4 3,221 95 -88 39 Platinum 67,964 35 2,363 7 -6,501 96 4,138 20 Natural Gas 1,115,815 7 -110,368 45 59,679 50 50,689 100 Brent 181,699 25 -40,872 43 38,941 58 1,931 35 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 753,373 34 186,078 71 -158,757 34 -27,321 25 Corn 1,564,217 32 404,200 82 -353,348 22 -50,852 14 Coffee 214,170 8 43,015 76 -45,757 28 2,742 17 Sugar 848,463 11 201,680 78 -240,752 23 39,072 56 Wheat 331,136 11 22,309 48 -18,647 33 -3,662 91   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 172,589 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,224 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 183,813 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 52.5 26.3 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.9 65.3 3.7 – Net Position: 172,589 -200,056 27,467 – Gross Longs: 269,459 135,360 46,639 – Gross Shorts: 96,870 335,416 19,172 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.8 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 5.4 94.9 32.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -35.1 38.6 -27.6   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 13,997 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -106 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,103 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.7 38.3 16.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.2 54.5 9.9 – Net Position: 13,997 -23,861 9,864 – Gross Longs: 55,545 56,447 24,482 – Gross Shorts: 41,548 80,308 14,618 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 15.1 99.3 6.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -43.1 50.9 -38.3   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -18,025 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,608 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,633 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.1 52.5 9.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.6 44.4 7.7 – Net Position: -18,025 15,425 2,600 – Gross Longs: 53,404 99,692 17,184 – Gross Shorts: 71,429 84,267 14,584 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 29.4 70.1 40.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -26.5 30.1 -39.7   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 2,363 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 878 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,485 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 40.1 40.6 11.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 36.6 50.2 5.7 – Net Position: 2,363 -6,501 4,138 – Gross Longs: 27,226 27,591 8,034 – Gross Shorts: 24,863 34,092 3,896 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 6.7 96.1 19.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.4 10.1 -29.9   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -3,133 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 339 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,472 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.3 70.6 15.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 60.2 21.3 17.1 – Net Position: -3,133 3,221 -88 – Gross Longs: 803 4,614 1,029 – Gross Shorts: 3,936 1,393 1,117 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 3.3 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.7 94.8 38.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.4 9.5 -41.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
EUR/USD In Focus! ECB Meeting In Sintra Is Like A Blockbuster Starring Lagarde, Powell And Bailey

Euro Currency Speculators continue to boost their bullish bets for 4th Week

Invest Macro Invest Macro 04.06.2022 22:45
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the further gains in bullish bets for the Euro currency futures contracts. Euro speculators boosted their bullish bets for a fourth straight week this week and for the sixth time in the past ten weeks. Over the past four-week time-frame, Euro bets have risen by a total of +58,650 contracts, going from -6,378 net positions on May 3rd to a total of +52,272 net positions this week. This week marks the highest Euro speculator standing in the past twelve weeks. The recent improvement in Euro positions has taken place with a very strong change in sentiment as just four weeks ago the overall position had fallen into bearish territory. The Euro sentiment has been so bad that analysts have been making predictions for an inevitable decline of the Euro into parity versus the dollar. However, recently there has been rising expectations that the European Central Bank will be more hawkish towards interest rates in the near future (despite the weak outlook for EU GDP growth) and will end their negative interest rate policy. Over the past few weeks, the EUR/USD exchange rate has rebounded after falling to a multi-year low of 1.0350 in early May. This week the EUR/USD hit a weekly high of 1.0787 before closing at the 1.0719 exchange rate. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Euro (13,342 contracts), Brazil real (6,602 contracts), British pound sterling (6,267 contracts), Canadian dollar (5,680 contracts), Mexican peso (5,657 contracts), Japanese yen (5,005 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (597 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-501 contracts), Australian dollar (-3,236 contracts), Swiss franc (-785 contracts) and Bitcoin (-446 contracts). Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that most of the currency markets are below their midpoint (50 percent) of the last 3 years. The Brazil Real, US Dollar Index and Bitcoin are currently in extreme bullish levels. Strength score trends (or move index, that show 6-week changes in strength scores) shows the recent strong weakness in the commodity currencies (AUD, NZD and CAD) as well as the Swiss franc. Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend May-31-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index USD Index 63,863 98 37,538 91 -41,327 6 3,789 58 EUR 706,317 85 52,272 51 -85,186 52 32,914 29 GBP 252,881 72 -74,105 21 87,172 81 -13,067 29 JPY 239,080 81 -94,439 11 105,049 87 -10,610 32 CHF 49,579 40 -20,458 10 29,851 87 -9,393 26 CAD 135,929 21 -7,007 34 -327 68 7,334 44 AUD 153,661 48 -48,682 40 51,128 57 -2,446 46 NZD 55,134 53 -18,724 40 21,374 63 -2,650 21 MXN 212,843 55 35,449 42 -40,143 56 4,694 63 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 74,146 73 45,316 95 -47,670 5 2,354 92 Bitcoin 10,900 58 403 92 -503 0 100 15   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 37,538 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -501 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,039 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 85.9 3.7 8.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.1 68.4 2.8 – Net Position: 37,538 -41,327 3,789 – Gross Longs: 54,859 2,355 5,605 – Gross Shorts: 17,321 43,682 1,816 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.2 to 1 0.1 to 1 3.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.5 5.9 58.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.6 -9.0 5.2   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 52,272 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 13,342 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,930 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.5 51.7 12.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.1 63.8 7.7 – Net Position: 52,272 -85,186 32,914 – Gross Longs: 236,553 365,434 87,138 – Gross Shorts: 184,281 450,620 54,224 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.0 51.9 28.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.4 -10.1 24.0   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -74,105 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,267 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -80,372 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.2 76.6 7.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.5 42.2 12.9 – Net Position: -74,105 87,172 -13,067 – Gross Longs: 30,788 193,786 19,446 – Gross Shorts: 104,893 106,614 32,513 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 20.6 81.2 28.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.9 8.4 1.9   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -94,439 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,005 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -99,444 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.4 82.2 9.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.9 38.3 13.9 – Net Position: -94,439 105,049 -10,610 – Gross Longs: 15,201 196,584 22,605 – Gross Shorts: 109,640 91,535 33,215 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 10.7 86.9 31.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.9 -12.1 24.5   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -20,458 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -785 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,673 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.3 75.6 17.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.6 15.4 36.3 – Net Position: -20,458 29,851 -9,393 – Gross Longs: 2,641 37,473 8,596 – Gross Shorts: 23,099 7,622 17,989 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 4.9 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 10.3 87.0 25.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -21.5 10.4 7.5   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -7,007 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,680 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,687 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.5 51.5 24.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.6 51.7 18.6 – Net Position: -7,007 -327 7,334 – Gross Longs: 30,520 70,006 32,660 – Gross Shorts: 37,527 70,333 25,326 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.7 68.5 44.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -30.7 32.5 -21.5   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -48,682 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,236 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,446 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.4 63.1 12.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 53.1 29.9 14.4 – Net Position: -48,682 51,128 -2,446 – Gross Longs: 32,897 97,031 19,659 – Gross Shorts: 81,579 45,903 22,105 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.7 57.0 46.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.4 22.6 -25.6   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -18,724 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 597 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,321 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.6 76.2 5.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.6 37.4 9.8 – Net Position: -18,724 21,374 -2,650 – Gross Longs: 9,179 42,010 2,762 – Gross Shorts: 27,903 20,636 5,412 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.8 63.3 21.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -32.0 32.2 -20.4   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 35,449 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,657 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,792 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 53.8 41.8 3.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.1 60.6 1.3 – Net Position: 35,449 -40,143 4,694 – Gross Longs: 114,480 88,894 7,396 – Gross Shorts: 79,031 129,037 2,702 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.5 56.1 62.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.9 -5.8 0.6   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 45,316 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,602 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,714 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 71.3 22.4 5.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 10.2 86.7 2.7 – Net Position: 45,316 -47,670 2,354 – Gross Longs: 52,896 16,595 4,372 – Gross Shorts: 7,580 64,265 2,018 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.0 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.9 4.8 92.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.7 -0.6 -1.6     Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 403 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 849 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 79.6 1.5 9.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 75.9 6.1 8.6 – Net Position: 403 -503 100 – Gross Longs: 8,680 159 1,033 – Gross Shorts: 8,277 662 933 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.5 23.2 15.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.3 -20.4 -6.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Now with Purple Trading: VIX volatility index as a tradable CFD futures symbol

Now with Purple Trading: VIX volatility index as a tradable CFD futures symbol

Purple Trading Purple Trading 06.06.2022 08:55
Now with Purple Trading: VIX volatility index as a tradable CFD futures symbol The volatility or market uncertainty index (VIX) is an invaluable tool used by many when analyzing markets. However, its trading also holds great potential. That's why we have decided to include it alongside our CFD futures symbols. Read this article and find out how and when to trade VIX as an CFD futures symbol. What is the VIX index and what does it indicate The Volatility Index (VIX), as the name suggests, is an index that is used to measure the level of market nervousness, uncertainty, and volatility. For these reasons, it is also sometimes called a fear gauge or fear index. The higher the VIX index values get, the greater the uncertainty in the markets and vice versa. However, it is very important to remember that the VIX index is a forward-looking index, so it shows the expected, not actual, market uncertainty.   How the VIX index is calculated VIX index measures 30 days of expected volatility of S&P 500 index, it does so by using S&P 500 options (SPX) listed on CBOE exchange as an input. VIX takes together all SPX call and put options and compares the changing demand and price between them.   Relationship between the VIX index and the markets The VIX index generally tracks the S&P 500 index in an inverse manner. That is, if the stock markets (S&P 500) are turbulent and investor nervousness/fear increases, the same can be observed for the VIX index. On the other hand, if stock prices are on the rise, the VIX index generally declines or advances sideways.   Meet: VIX.f - tradable CFD futures instrument Similar to other indices, the VIX is not tradable on its own and needs an investment vehicle to go with it. And that is what VIX.f is - a tradable continuous CFD futures instrument that behaves just like our other continuous CFD futures products. Its price is based on the underlying asset, which in this case is a specific VIX futures contract. Continuous in this case means that before each futures contract expires, there is an automatic rollover of the position. This will result in selling of old contracts and the buying of additional nearest futures contracts. It is also important to note that since this is a CFD instrument, you don’t become the owner of VIX.f when trading it. You only speculate on its price. How to trade VIX.f futures symbol VIX.f CFD futures is a very versatile symbol that can help traders and investors in several different situations:   Buy/long in case of an expected increase in volatility or turbulence in the markets Risk management or hedging vehicle for investors - through the inverse relationship of the VIX and the S&P 500 Option to open a short position in case of expecting a positive economic development in markets Overall, it should be noted that VIX.f futures is not recommended to be traded in a buy and hold manner, but rather as a short-term investment.Symbol specification: Symbol specification Name in Platform VIX.f Leverage ESMA 1:10 Leverage PRO 1:10 Trade hours (GMT+3) Monday to Friday 1:00 – 24:00  i Check out the current trading hours and hours changes Commission 10 USD/lot Currency USD Tick size 0.01 Tick value 0.1 Volume step 1 Min trade 1 Max trade 50
We are expanding our futures offer. You can now trade SP500 index and orange juice

We are expanding our futures offer. You can now trade SP500 index and orange juice

Purple Trading Purple Trading 06.06.2022 11:30
We are expanding our futures offer. You can now trade SP500 index and orange juice At Purple Trading, we are expanding our offer of CFD futures symbols by 2 more. The first one is the notorious S&P 500 index, followed by the futures contract for frozen orange juice concentrate. S&P 500 as a tradable futures symbol: US500.f This is a derivative contract that allows you to speculate on the price of the S&P 500 index. US500.f is therefore a continuous CFD futures symbol which price is based on the underlying asset. Of course, it should be noted here for the sake of argument that, since it is a CFD instrument, you do not become the owner of the US500.f when trading it. Rather you only speculate on its price. Continuous in this case means that before each futures contract expires, there is an automatic rollover of the position. This will result in selling of old contracts and the buying of additional nearest futures contracts. These contracts are split by quarter, specifically March, June, September and December. Trading methods US500.f   As with every CFD instrument, with US500.f you can speculate on either rise and/or fall in its price. It can also be a valuable alternative to other CFD futures products we offer at Purple Trading (for example, the VIX volatility index, with which the S&P 500 has an inverse relationship). Furthermore, clients do not pay swap fees for holding a position on this instrument, but only the standard $10/lot fee as with all other CFD futures instruments. However, they must not forget about rollovers. Clients can also use this instrument to hedge stock portfolios or effectively expand client’s exposure to the US market. US500.f specification:   US500.f specification Name in Platform US500.f Leverage ESMA 1:10 Leverage PRO 1:10 Trading hours (GMT+3) Monday to Friday 1:00 – 24:00  i Check out the current trading hours and hours changes Commission 10 USD/lot Currency USD Tick size 0.01 Tick value 0.01 Volume step 1 Min trade 1 Max trade 50 Frozen orange juice concentrate - Orangej.f If you're a fan of the movie Trading places with Eddie Murphy, you'll remember the scene with the shorting of the orange juice concentrate futures. Guess what, now you can find exactly the same product among our CFD futures instruments! Orangej.f specification   1 lot = 2000 pound of frozen concentrated orange juice market (taken directly from GBE) Contracts every two months (Jan, March, May, Jul, Sep, Nov) Traded on ICE (US) exchange   Orangej.f specification Name in Platform Orangej.f Leverage ESMA 1:10 Leverage PRO 1:10 Trading hours (GMT+3) Monday to Friday 15:00 – 21:00  i Check out the current trading hours and hours changes Commission 10 USD/lot Currency USD Tick size 0.01 Tick value 0.2 Volume step 1 Min trade 1 Max trade 50
The Swing Overview - Week 22 2022

The Swing Overview - Week 22 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 07.06.2022 13:59
The Swing Overview - Week 22 Equity indices continued to rise for a second week despite rising inflation and sanctions against Russia. Economic data indicate optimistic consumer expectations and the easing of the Covid-19 measures in China also brought some relief to the markets. The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 1.5%. The Eurozone inflation hit a new record of 8.1%, giving further fuel to the ECB to raise interest rates, which is supporting the euro to strengthen.   Macroeconomic data The US consumer confidence in economic growth for May came in at 106.4. The market was expecting 103.9. This optimism points to an expected increase in consumer spendings, which is a positive development. The optimism was also confirmed by data from the manufacturing sector. The ISM PMI index in manufacturing rose by 56.1 in May, an improvement on the April reading of 55.4. The manufacturing sector is therefore expecting further expansion.   On the other hand, data from the labour market were disappointing. The ADP Non Farm Employment indicator (private sector job growth) was well below expectations as the economy created only 128k new jobs in May (the market was expecting 300k new jobs). The unemployment claims data held at the standard 200k level. However, the crucial indicator from the labour market will be Friday's NFP data.   Quarterly wage growth for 1Q 2022 was 12.6% (previous quarter was 3.9%). This figure is a leading indicator on inflation. Faster inflation growth could lead to a higher-than-expected 0.50% rate hike at the Fed's June meeting.   The US 10-year Treasury yields have rebounded from 2.6% and have started to rise again. They are currently around 2.9%. However, the US Dollar Index has not yet reacted to the rise in yields. The reason is that the euro, which has appreciated significantly in recent days, has the largest weight in the USD index. Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields and USD index on the daily chart   The SP 500 Index The SP 500 index has continued to strengthen in recent days. The market seems to be accepting the expected 0.50% rate hike and while economic data points to some slowdown, forward looking consumers‘ and managers’ expectations are optimistic.  Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   The US SP 500 index is approaching a significant resistance level, which is in the 4,197-4,204 range. The next one is at 4,293 - 4,306. The nearest support is at 4 075 - 4 086.    German DAX index Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart Germany's manufacturing PMI for May came in at 54.8. The previous month it was 54, 6. Thus, managers expect expansion in the manufacturing sector. Surprisingly, German exports rose in April despite the disruption of trade relations with Russia. Exports in Germany grew by 4.4% even though exports to Russia fell by 10%.  The positive data has an impact on the DAX index. However, the bulls in DAX may be discouraged by the expected ECB interest rate hike.   The DAX has reached resistance in the 14,600 - 14,640 area. The nearest significant support is at 14,300 - 14,330, where the horizontal resistance is coincident with the moving average EMA 50 on the H4 chart.   The euro continues to rise Bulls on the euro were supported by inflation data, which reached a record high of 8.1% in the eurozone for the month of May. Inflation increased by 0.8% on a monthly basis compared to April. Information from the manufacturing sector exceeded expectations, with the manufacturing PMI for May coming in at 54.6, indicating optimism in the economy. The ECB will meet on Thursday 9/6/2022 and it might be surprising. While analysts do not expect a rate hike at this meeting, rising inflation may prompt the ECB to act faster.  Figure 4: The EUR/USD on H4 and daily chart The EUR/USD currency pair is reacting to the rate hike expectations by gradual strengthening. A resistance is at 1.0780 The nearest support is now at 1.0629 - 1.0640 and then at 1.0540 - 1.0550.   The Bank of Canada raised the interest rate The GDP in Canada for Q1 2022 grew by 2.89% year-on-year (3.23% in the previous period). On a month-on-month basis, the GDP grew by 0.7% (0.9% in February). This points to slowing economic growth.  Canada's manufacturing PMI for May came in at 56.8 (56.2 in April ), an upbeat development. The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by 0.50% to 1.5% as expected by analysts. In addition to the rate hike, the Canadian dollar is positively affected by the rise in oil prices as Canada is a major exporter. Figure 5: The USD/CAD on H4 and daily chart The USD/CAD currency pair is currently in a downward movement. The nearest resistance according to the daily chart is 1.2710-1.2730. Support according to the daily chart is in the range of 1.2400-1.2470.  
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 31/5/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 31/5/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 07.06.2022 15:38
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 31/5/2022 Total net speculator positions on the USD index fell by 501 contracts last week to 37,538 contracts. This change is the result of an increase in long positions by 1,184 contracts and an increase in short positions by 1,685 contracts. Significant fact is the further bullish movement in speculators' positions for the euro currency futures contracts. This week, the euro speculators increased their bullish positions for the fourth consecutive week and the sixth time in the last ten weeks. Over the past four weeks, speculators' total net positions in the euro have increased by a total of +58,650 contracts, from -6,378 net positions on May 3 to a total of +52,272 net positions last week. Total net positions for the euro are the highest in twelve weeks. The recent improvement in euro positions has come with a very significant change in sentiment, as just four weeks ago the total position had fallen into bearish territory. Sentiment in the euro was so bad that analysts were talking about the inevitable decline of the euro to parity against the dollar. Recently, however, expectations have been growing that the European Central Bank will become more hawkish on interest rates in the near future and end its negative interest rate policy, causing the euro to strengthen. In addition to the euro, speculators' total net positions rose on the British pound, the New Zealand dollar, the Canadian dollar and the Japanese yen. On the Australian dollar and the Swiss franc, total net positions fell last week. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF May 31, 2022 37538 52272 -74105 -48682 -18724 -94439 -7007 -20458 May 24, 2022 38039 38930 -80372 -45446 -19321 -99444 -12687 -19673 May 17, 2022 36213 20339 -79241 -44642 -17767 -102309 -14496 -16592 May 10, 2022 34776 16529 -79598 -41714 -12996 -110454 -5407 -15763 May 03, 2022 33071 -6378 -73813 -28516 -6610 -100794 9029 -13907 Apr 26, 2022 33879 22201 -69621 -27651 66 -95535 20881 -12869   Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com     The Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment May 31, 2022 706317 236553 184281 52272 -2621 -519 -13861 13342 Bullish May 24, 2022 708938 237072 198142 38930 2226 6302 -12289 18591 Bullish May 17, 2022 706712 230770 210431 20339 1666 2540 -1270 3810 Bullish May 10 2022 705046 228230 211701 16529 10120 19781 3126 22907 Bullish May 03, 2022 694926 208449 214827 -6378 6477 -14544 14035 -28579 Bearish Apr 26, 2022 688449 222993 200792 22201 12510 1990 11090 -9100 Weak bullish         Total change 30378 15550 -5421 20971     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EUR/USD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 52,272 contracts last week, up by 13,342 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 519 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 13,861 contracts. This data suggests bullish sentiment as the total net positions are positive while there has been an increase. Open interest fell by 2,621 contracts in the last week. This shows that the move that occurred in the euro last week was not supported by the volume and it was therefore a weak price action. The price has reached the EMA 50 moving average on the daily chart, at which it is oscillating, showing that there is a resistance here. Long-term resistance: 1.0800 – 1.0840 Support: 1.0620 – 1-0630. The next support is in the zone 1.0340 – 1.0420.   The British pound   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment May 31, 2022 252881 30788 104893 -74105 -983 4852 -1415 6267 Weak bearish May 24, 2022 253864 25936 106308 -80372 53 -677 454 -1131 Bearish May 17, 2022 253811 26613 105854 -79241 -10783 -2856 -3213 357 Weak bearish May 10, 2022 264594 29469 109067 -79598 -3902 -4067 1718 -5785 Bearish May 03, 2022 268496 33536 107349 -73813 -4296 -6900 -2708 -4192 Bearish Apr 26, 2022 272792 40436 110057 -69621 23263 3625 14332 -10707 Bearish         Total change 3352 -6023 9168 -15191     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBP/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week amounted to 74,105 contracts, up by 6,267 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 4,852 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 1,415 contracts. This indicates weak bearish sentiment as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, but at the same time there has been an increase in total net positions. The open interest fell by 983 contracts last week, indicating that the downward movement in the pound that occurred last week was not supported by the volume and it was therefore a weak price action. Long-term resistance: 1.2700 – 1.2760.    Support: 1.2160 – 1.2200.     The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment May 31, 2022 153661 32897 81579 -48682 -4954 -3682 -446 -3236 Bearish May 24, 2022 158615 36579 82025 -45446 -5194 -4894 -4090 -804 Bearish May 17, 2022 163809 41473 86115 -44642 10600 4604 7532 -2928 Bearish May 10, 2022 153209 36869 78583 -41714 952 -10126 3072 13198 Bearish May 03, 2022 152257 46995 75511 -28516 5167 -110 755 -865 Bearish Apr 26, 2022 147090 47105 74756 -27651 -219 7904 6718 1186 Weak bearish         Total change 6352 -6304 13541 -19845     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUD/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week amounted to 48,682 contracts, down by 3,236 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 3,682 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 446 contracts. This data suggests bearish sentiment on the Australian dollar, as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, while at the same time there has been a further decline in the past week. There was a decline in open interest of 4,954 contracts last week. This means that the upward movement that occurred last week was not supported by the volume and it was therefore weak price action. The price has currently reached the horizontal resistance at 0.7260 where a reaction occurred. If this resistance is  broken, a further bullish movement could continue. Long-term resistance: 0.7250-0.7260                                                                                                              Long-term support: 0.6830-0.6850     The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment May 31, 2022 55134 9179 27903 -18724 -4145 -1570 -2167 597 Weak bullish May 24, 2022 59279 10749 30070 -19321 -1525 -4249 -2695 -1554 Bearish May 17, 2022 60804 14998 32765 -17767 4569 -205 4566 -4771 Bearish May 10, 2022 56235 15203 28199 -12996 5391 -2224 4162 -6386 Bearish May 03, 2022 50844 17427 24037 -6610 4334 -4658 2018 -6676 Bearish Apr 26, 2022 46510 22085 22019 66 5412 3004 3303 -299 Weak bullish         Total change 14036 -9902 9187 -19089     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZD/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached -18,724 contracts last week, having grown by 597 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 1,570 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 2,167 contracts. This data suggests that there has been a weakening of bearish sentiment on the New Zealand Dollar over the past week as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, but there has also been an increase in total net positions. The open interest fell by 4,145 contracts last week.  The move in NZD/USD that occurred last week was not supported by the volume and therefore the move was weak. The NZD/USD has reached the resistance band at 0.6570 and also the EMA 50 moving average on the daily chart, which is a strong confluence and there has already been some bearish reaction there. If this resistance is broken, further strengthening could occur.  Long-term resistance: 0.6540 – 0.6560 Long-term support: 0.6220 – 0.6280     Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
Hedging as an effective form of protection from loss

Hedging as an effective form of protection from loss

Purple Trading Purple Trading 09.06.2022 12:19
Hedging as an effective form of protection from loss On the markets, it is used by both professional traders and big players such as banks, investment funds, and others. No wonder, because if you master hedging, it can help you to significantly reduce potential losses and keep you profitable. In this article, we'll show you how to hedge and which instruments are suitable for that. What is hedging? It is a kind of insurance in the form of a trading strategy. It is designed to mitigate potential risks. In hedging, traders (and also financial institutions) hold positions on assets/contracts that have an inverse relationship to each other and thus develop inversely. When one instrument falls, the other rises and vice versa.   Benefits There is one significant advantage to being "hedged". Namely, traders, with this form of insurance, are able to reduce the risks on their opened trading positions and thus better respond to adverse market developments that threaten these positions. At the same time, they have the comfort of being able to guess in advance the value of the maximum potential loss in the event that something goes wrong in the markets. Hedging is thus a really important tool in risk management.   Disadvantages Hedging is essentially a form of insurance. And as it happens, you have to pay for insurance. The same is true for investing in opposing instruments. By having one investment grow while the other declines, you lose a certain amount of potential profit. A theoretical example of hedging We have a trader who buys stock XY for $1000. He decides to hedge and to do so he chooses to buy a six-month put option for $100 with a strike price of $850. This means that our trader has half a year until the option expires to sell his stock at 850USD in case the market is unfavorable for him).   If the share price rises A six-month put option is about to expire and the share price is higher than 850 USD (e.g. 1150 USD). The trader will therefore logically not exercise his option, thus losing 100 USD (the original price of his option). However, by keeping XY stock, which is now worth 1150 USD, his net profit is 1050 USD (1150 - 100). As we wrote above, the hedging in this case reduced the trader’s overall profit, but that is a tax he needs to pay for being “insured”. The following example will show you what would have happened if the trader had not hedged.   The share price plunges In an alternate universe, our trader did not do well and the market gave him a slap in the face in the form of a drop in XY's share price to $600. However, our trader has hedged and exercises his still unexpired option. He can then sell his stock at the option price of the announced 850 USD. In this case, his total loss is 250 USD (850 - 600). If we would take a look at our trader in yet another alternative universe where he has not hedged, his loss would be 400 USD (1000 - 600). CFD hedging: the S&P500 and VIX index The current market developments, influenced by high inflation and the war in Ukraine, are not good for the markets. According to the VIX index, nervousness in the markets will continue to rise and stock indices like the SP500 are currently heading in exactly the opposite direction. However, did you know that these 2 mentioned indices can now be traded in Purple Trading to get a rather effective hedging tool? At Purple Trading, traders now have a unique opportunity to hedge using CFD futures contracts. Namely, we are now launching CFD futures symbols in the form of the VIX index and S&P500, which traders can find in their Purple Trading MT4 platforms. Both symbols have a highly inverse relationship with each other, which is why they are widely sought after when it comes to hedging. Chart 1: Six-month S&P500 price trend (note the apparent inverse relationship with the VIX chart below; source: Googlefinance.com) Chart 2: Six-month VIX price trend (note the apparent inverse relationship with the SP500 chart above) Relationship between VIX and S&P500 The VIX index is often called the fear or nervousness index. Its chart indicates the estimated future nervousness in the markets. This manifests itself in the form of volatility, i.e. sharp and seemingly random price fluctuations caused by nervous investors who are buying/selling more than usual. Thus, if the VIX index shows an increase, volatility/nervousness in the markets can be expected to increase. The exact opposite is true for the S&P500. It outright hates volatility and nervousness in the markets and if it is announced, the S&P500 usually starts to fall. This is due to nervous investors withdrawing from the stock markets to seemingly safer havens, which is gold for example. Thus, if the VIX index (hence volatility) rises, the S&P500 falls and vice versa. Effective hedging is one of the reasons why Purple Trading clients are among the most profitable in the EU FAQ
Crypto Focus: Many of the Top 10 Coins Remaining Heavily Range-Bound for Another Week

Crypto Focus: Many of the Top 10 Coins Remaining Heavily Range-Bound for Another Week

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 10.06.2022 12:15
Well, it was another week of ranges traders, as we saw a few moves by both sides, but the picture remains relatively the same, with many of the top 10 coins remaining heavily range-bound for another week. BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, BNB, and Doge are looking quite similar as traders continue to look for that reason to break the deadlock. Solana looked like it was trying to get a move higher going yesterday, but that was cut down into Thursday’s NY session. For now, it looks like the smart move will be to continue to sit if you’re long-term and stay on the lines if you’re a short-term trader. Until we see a shift in momentum, it could continue to be death by one thousand cuts if you continue to try and play the mini breakouts. It’s not to say we didn’t see some movement this week. ADA, a member on the top 10, did trade up to 20% higher before the fade set in yesterday. For now, ADA is in a minor uptrend, but we want to see 67 beaten to resume thinking that buyers are flat out in control. Other movers in the top 60 have been Helium +36% and THETA +12.2%. In the Top 25, ChainLink has seen a solid seven days up 23.4%. In other news, the SEC has stated that BTC and ETH are commodities. It’s going to be hard to get delivery of those. The SEC is also set to investigate the recent TerraUSD crash. Once again, we are going to end with an index to gauge the overall mood we see on the boards at present. It’s a very clear picture at the moment with the CRYPTO25 index as the price remains hemmed in its range between 11,250 and 9860. Recent price action has started to form a squeeze but that might just produce another mini-break that remains held between the range high and low. We are now at a point where we are looking for a high momentum break, either higher or lower, to set some direction. The post Crypto Focus: Many of the Top 10 Coins Remaining Heavily Range-Bound for Another Week appeared first on Eightcap.
COT Week 23 Charts: Energy Speculator Positions Mixed led by Brent Crude & Heating Oil

COT Week 23 Charts: Energy Speculator Positions Mixed led by Brent Crude & Heating Oil

Invest Macro Invest Macro 12.06.2022 15:16
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for energy markets was Brent Crude Oil (4,774 contracts) and Heating Oil (4,765 contracts) with Bloomberg Commodity Index (2,178 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-4,720 contracts) and Natural Gas (-3,974 contracts) with Gasoline (-3,202 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index is the highest above its midpoint for the past 3 years while Brent, Heating Oil and Natural Gas are slightly below the 50 percent level. Strength score trends (or move index, that show 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that Heating Oil and the Bloomberg Commodity Index bets have been rising the strongest over the past six weeks while Gasoline is moving the opposite way. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-07-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,790,618 10 328,256 8 -369,033 93 40,777 72 Gold 494,130 12 175,268 7 -199,886 95 24,618 18 Silver 148,294 15 17,404 5 -27,990 94 10,586 10 Copper 194,187 22 -3,714 40 879 60 2,835 42 Palladium 7,035 3 -3,461 2 3,581 97 -120 37 Platinum 65,295 31 5,933 12 -9,742 92 3,809 15 Natural Gas 1,127,731 10 -114,342 44 66,419 52 47,923 93 Brent 169,802 16 -36,098 51 34,208 50 1,890 35 Heating Oil 261,651 20 4,886 50 -24,428 45 19,542 66 Soybeans 760,444 35 176,644 68 -148,390 39 -28,254 23 Corn 1,557,167 31 391,264 80 -337,137 24 -54,127 12 Coffee 222,583 15 48,767 81 -51,363 23 2,596 16 Sugar 849,814 12 195,403 77 -234,496 24 39,093 56 Wheat 333,705 12 23,881 50 -19,863 31 -4,018 90   WTI Crude Oil Futures: The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 328,256 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,720 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 332,976 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.7 34.8 5.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.3 55.4 2.9 – Net Position: 328,256 -369,033 40,777 – Gross Longs: 423,882 622,320 92,501 – Gross Shorts: 95,626 991,353 51,724 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.4 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 8.2 92.9 72.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.3 -4.2 -2.1   Brent Crude Oil Futures: The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -36,098 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,774 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,872 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent. Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.3 51.5 4.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 36.6 31.4 3.3 – Net Position: -36,098 34,208 1,890 – Gross Longs: 26,009 87,488 7,434 – Gross Shorts: 62,107 53,280 5,544 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.6 50.2 34.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.1 -2.3 -14.1   Natural Gas Futures: The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -114,342 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,974 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -110,368 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent. Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.8 37.2 6.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.0 31.3 2.6 – Net Position: -114,342 66,419 47,923 – Gross Longs: 235,073 419,847 76,779 – Gross Shorts: 349,415 353,428 28,856 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.3 51.8 93.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.9 -1.6 4.6   Gasoline Blendstock Futures: The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 30,488 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,690 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.6 52.7 8.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.7 66.2 4.3 – Net Position: 30,488 -41,866 11,378 – Gross Longs: 75,841 162,330 24,623 – Gross Shorts: 45,353 204,196 13,245 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 1.2 95.2 88.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.9 6.4 16.0   #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures: The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 4,886 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,765 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 121 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent. Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.3 49.5 17.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.4 58.9 10.1 – Net Position: 4,886 -24,428 19,542 – Gross Longs: 45,231 129,588 45,902 – Gross Shorts: 40,345 154,016 26,360 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.6 45.3 66.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 17.2 -9.7 -9.1   Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures: The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -8,383 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,178 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,561 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent. Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.5 62.0 1.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.0 51.3 0.8 – Net Position: -8,383 7,865 518 – Gross Longs: 24,512 45,368 1,126 – Gross Shorts: 32,895 37,503 608 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 75.4 23.5 37.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.8 -10.2 -6.8   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Week 23 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculators Positions mostly higher lead by Soybean Meal & Live Cattle

COT Week 23 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculators Positions mostly higher lead by Soybean Meal & Live Cattle

Invest Macro Invest Macro 12.06.2022 15:46
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. The soft commodities market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as seven out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while four markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Soybean Meal (8,922 contracts) and Live Cattle (5,888 contracts) with Coffee (5,752 contracts), Cocoa (4,341 contracts), Soybean Oil (3,604 contracts), Wheat (1,572 contracts) and Lean Hogs (1,274 contracts) also showing a positive weeks. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-12,936 contracts) and Soybeans (-9,434 contracts) with Sugar (-6,277 contracts) and Cotton (-2 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Corn and Coffee are in extreme-bullish levels currently. On the opposite position, Live Cattle and Lean Hogs hold extreme-bearish levels while most of the other markets are in strong bullish positions between 50 percent and 80 percent. Strength score trends (or move index, that show 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that despite the strong strength scores in the blue chart previously, the trends have been cooling off mightily. This chart shows that only Coffee and Wheat have had rising scores over the past six weeks. Live Cattle and Lean Hogs have had strong declines in the trends over the past six weeks followed by Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil and Corn. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-07-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,790,618 10 328,256 8 -369,033 93 40,777 72 Gold 494,130 12 175,268 7 -199,886 95 24,618 18 Silver 148,294 15 17,404 5 -27,990 94 10,586 10 Copper 194,187 22 -3,714 40 879 60 2,835 42 Palladium 7,035 3 -3,461 2 3,581 97 -120 37 Platinum 65,295 31 5,933 12 -9,742 92 3,809 15 Natural Gas 1,127,731 10 -114,342 44 66,419 52 47,923 93 Brent 169,802 16 -36,098 51 34,208 50 1,890 35 Heating Oil 261,651 20 4,886 50 -24,428 45 19,542 66 Soybeans 760,444 35 176,644 68 -148,390 39 -28,254 23 Corn 1,557,167 31 391,264 80 -337,137 24 -54,127 12 Coffee 222,583 15 48,767 81 -51,363 23 2,596 16 Sugar 849,814 12 195,403 77 -234,496 24 39,093 56 Wheat 333,705 12 23,881 50 -19,863 31 -4,018 90   CORN Futures: The CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 391,264 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -12,936 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 404,200 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent. CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.4 43.2 8.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.3 64.9 12.3 – Net Position: 391,264 -337,137 -54,127 – Gross Longs: 520,783 673,039 137,311 – Gross Shorts: 129,519 1,010,176 191,438 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 80.0 23.9 11.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.6 15.7 -2.2   SUGAR Futures: The SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 195,403 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,277 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 201,680 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent. SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.7 45.1 10.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.7 72.7 6.0 – Net Position: 195,403 -234,496 39,093 – Gross Longs: 252,688 383,138 90,314 – Gross Shorts: 57,285 617,634 51,221 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.4 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.8 23.7 56.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.6 5.0 0.8   COFFEE Futures: The COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 48,767 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,752 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,015 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.0 percent. COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.8 48.7 4.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 3.9 71.8 3.0 – Net Position: 48,767 -51,363 2,596 – Gross Longs: 57,417 108,343 9,164 – Gross Shorts: 8,650 159,706 6,568 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 81.0 22.6 16.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.0 -5.3 -11.4   SOYBEANS Futures: The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 176,644 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,434 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 186,078 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent. SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.2 47.3 6.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.0 66.8 10.2 – Net Position: 176,644 -148,390 -28,254 – Gross Longs: 229,895 359,587 49,303 – Gross Shorts: 53,251 507,977 77,557 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.9 39.2 23.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.3 8.8 -3.8   SOYBEAN OIL Futures: The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 78,645 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,604 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,041 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent. SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.9 48.2 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.2 72.1 5.0 – Net Position: 78,645 -95,258 16,613 – Gross Longs: 107,372 192,493 36,684 – Gross Shorts: 28,727 287,751 20,071 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.3 38.5 75.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.9 17.2 -1.2   SOYBEAN MEAL Futures: The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 89,676 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,922 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 80,754 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent. SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.3 43.9 12.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.8 74.2 5.5 – Net Position: 89,676 -115,261 25,585 – Gross Longs: 107,791 167,306 46,628 – Gross Shorts: 18,115 282,567 21,043 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 77.4 23.0 65.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -14.8 14.0 -1.2   LIVE CATTLE Futures: The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 25,428 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,888 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,540 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent. LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.5 40.5 11.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.9 48.7 11.9 – Net Position: 25,428 -24,212 -1,216 – Gross Longs: 104,585 119,324 33,798 – Gross Shorts: 79,157 143,536 35,014 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 11.3 80.2 77.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -45.0 38.3 27.7   LEAN HOGS Futures: The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 10,491 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,274 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,217 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.3 41.7 9.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.9 43.3 13.6 – Net Position: 10,491 -3,090 -7,401 – Gross Longs: 59,207 81,583 19,271 – Gross Shorts: 48,716 84,673 26,672 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 18.2 89.8 58.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -23.8 27.8 -8.7   COTTON Futures: The COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 70,682 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,684 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent. COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 40.9 37.7 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.5 75.7 3.6 – Net Position: 70,682 -80,347 9,665 – Gross Longs: 86,609 79,718 17,332 – Gross Shorts: 15,927 160,065 7,667 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.4 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.7 31.0 73.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.1 7.6 -12.1   COCOA Futures: The COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 14,494 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,341 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,153 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent. COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.4 43.9 5.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.3 50.1 4.0 – Net Position: 14,494 -17,823 3,329 – Gross Longs: 89,997 125,905 14,861 – Gross Shorts: 75,503 143,728 11,532 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.8 68.6 29.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.0 11.3 -14.6   WHEAT Futures: The WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 23,881 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,572 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,309 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent. WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.9 34.8 10.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.7 40.8 11.6 – Net Position: 23,881 -19,863 -4,018 – Gross Longs: 109,678 116,146 34,706 – Gross Shorts: 85,797 136,009 38,724 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.1 31.4 89.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.9 -3.5 1.2   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Week 23 Charts: Bond Speculator bets mostly falling this week led by 2-Year & 10-Year Bonds

COT Week 23 Charts: Bond Speculator bets mostly falling this week led by 2-Year & 10-Year Bonds

Invest Macro Invest Macro 12.06.2022 16:06
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Bond market speculator bets were mostly on the lower side this week as only three out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while five markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for the COT bonds markets was the Eurodollar (208,714 contracts) and the Fed Funds (29,026 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year Bond (29,533 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the 2-Year Bond (-42,371 contracts) and the 10-Year Bond (-27,280 contracts) with the Long US Bond (-14,798 contracts), Ultra US Bond (-5,695 contracts) and the 5-Year Bond (-4,759 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Ultra US Treasury Bond and the US Treasury Bond are above their midpoint levels for the past 3 years while all the other markets are below the 50 percent level. The US Treasury Bond is actually in an extreme-bullish level currently while the Eurodollar and the Ultra 10-Year Note are both in extreme-bearish levels at the moment. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate the 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the 5-Year Bond and the Ultra US Treasury Bond have had the highest rising scores over the past six weeks. On the downside, the 10-Year Bond and the 2-Year Bond have shown the largest downward trends. Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-07-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index Eurodollar 10,409,834 32 -2,646,502 4 3,023,490 95 -376,988 21 FedFunds 1,568,823 44 54,233 46 -47,932 54 -6,301 44 2-Year 2,002,134 10 -170,489 48 225,040 69 -54,551 26 Long T-Bond 1,193,131 48 4,963 86 -5,633 18 670 53 10-Year 3,469,948 28 -266,187 32 426,524 73 -160,337 42 5-Year 3,784,732 39 -222,547 44 409,463 63 -186,916 30   3-Month Eurodollars Futures: The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,646,502 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 208,714 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,855,216 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent. 3-Month Eurodollars Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.5 74.1 3.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.0 45.0 7.4 – Net Position: -2,646,502 3,023,490 -376,988 – Gross Longs: 367,476 7,712,618 389,949 – Gross Shorts: 3,013,978 4,689,128 766,937 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 4.2 95.1 21.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.3 -3.5 14.9   30-Day Federal Funds Futures: The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 54,233 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 29,026 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,207 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent. 30-Day Federal Funds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.6 74.5 2.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.1 77.5 3.0 – Net Position: 54,233 -47,932 -6,301 – Gross Longs: 149,853 1,168,089 40,470 – Gross Shorts: 95,620 1,216,021 46,771 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.3 54.1 43.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.9 -2.8 19.2   2-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -170,489 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -42,371 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -128,118 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent. 2-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.0 79.8 7.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.5 68.6 9.9 – Net Position: -170,489 225,040 -54,551 – Gross Longs: 200,307 1,598,627 143,536 – Gross Shorts: 370,796 1,373,587 198,087 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.8 69.1 25.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -16.4 9.0 16.5   5-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -222,547 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,759 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -217,788 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent. 5-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.5 80.9 7.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.4 70.1 12.4 – Net Position: -222,547 409,463 -186,916 – Gross Longs: 359,715 3,061,190 283,380 – Gross Shorts: 582,262 2,651,727 470,296 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.2 63.2 29.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.1 -8.7 5.5   10-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -266,187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -27,280 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -238,907 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent. 10-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.6 81.0 8.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.3 68.7 13.5 – Net Position: -266,187 426,524 -160,337 – Gross Longs: 195,120 2,810,360 307,456 – Gross Shorts: 461,307 2,383,836 467,793 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 32.0 72.6 41.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.6 16.1 3.1   Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures: The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -75,834 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 29,533 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,367 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent. Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.5 81.8 11.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.6 66.7 20.0 – Net Position: -75,834 187,134 -111,300 – Gross Longs: 67,884 1,015,640 137,608 – Gross Shorts: 143,718 828,506 248,908 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 9.1 88.3 48.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.5 -3.6 12.2   US Treasury Bonds Futures: The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 4,963 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,798 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,761 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.5 74.8 14.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.0 75.2 14.0 – Net Position: 4,963 -5,633 670 – Gross Longs: 112,838 892,073 168,164 – Gross Shorts: 107,875 897,706 167,494 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 86.2 18.3 53.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.9 -1.2 15.1   Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures: The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -314,973 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,695 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -309,278 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.4 83.5 11.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.0 60.7 9.8 – Net Position: -314,973 290,771 24,202 – Gross Longs: 42,957 1,067,607 149,154 – Gross Shorts: 357,930 776,836 124,952 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.7 57.2 45.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.9 -8.7 -8.2   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Week 23 Charts: Precious Metals Speculator bets mostly higher lead by Copper & Platinum

COT Week 23 Charts: Precious Metals Speculator bets mostly higher lead by Copper & Platinum

Invest Macro Invest Macro 12.06.2022 16:16
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. COT metals market speculator bets were mostly rising this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while only one market had lower contracts. Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Copper (14,311 contracts) and Platinum (3,570 contracts) with Silver (3,407 contracts) and Gold (2,679 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, the only market with declines in speculator bets this week was Palladium with a fall of -328 contracts. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that only Copper (39.7 percent) is not in an extreme-bearish position at the current time. Using the Strength Index as a contrarian signal, the metals markets could be at attractive levels depending on the fundamental and technical factors of each market. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that only Platinum has been trending higher over the past six weeks. On the downside, Silver and the Gold have shown the largest downward trends. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-07-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,790,618 10 328,256 8 -369,033 93 40,777 72 Gold 494,130 12 175,268 7 -199,886 95 24,618 18 Silver 148,294 15 17,404 5 -27,990 94 10,586 10 Copper 194,187 22 -3,714 40 879 60 2,835 42 Palladium 7,035 3 -3,461 2 3,581 97 -120 37 Platinum 65,295 31 5,933 12 -9,742 92 3,809 15 Natural Gas 1,127,731 10 -114,342 44 66,419 52 47,923 93 Brent 169,802 16 -36,098 51 34,208 50 1,890 35 Heating Oil 261,651 20 4,886 50 -24,428 45 19,542 66 Soybeans 760,444 35 176,644 68 -148,390 39 -28,254 23 Corn 1,557,167 31 391,264 80 -337,137 24 -54,127 12 Coffee 222,583 15 48,767 81 -51,363 23 2,596 16 Sugar 849,814 12 195,403 77 -234,496 24 39,093 56 Wheat 333,705 12 23,881 50 -19,863 31 -4,018 90   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 175,268 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,679 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 172,589 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 54.7 23.7 8.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.2 64.1 3.9 – Net Position: 175,268 -199,886 24,618 – Gross Longs: 270,356 116,965 44,090 – Gross Shorts: 95,088 316,851 19,472 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.8 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 6.8 95.0 18.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.3 25.3 -23.5   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 17,404 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,407 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,997 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.2 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.0 36.9 16.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.3 55.8 9.8 – Net Position: 17,404 -27,990 10,586 – Gross Longs: 54,899 54,707 25,089 – Gross Shorts: 37,495 82,697 14,503 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 5.3 93.9 10.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -28.2 26.8 -15.3   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -3,714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 14,311 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,025 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.0 51.7 8.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.9 51.3 7.1 – Net Position: -3,714 879 2,835 – Gross Longs: 58,232 100,449 16,646 – Gross Shorts: 61,946 99,570 13,811 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.7 60.1 41.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.1 2.8 -23.7   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 5,933 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,570 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,363 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.4 41.1 11.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.3 56.0 5.6 – Net Position: 5,933 -9,742 3,809 – Gross Longs: 27,004 26,823 7,479 – Gross Shorts: 21,071 36,565 3,670 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 11.9 91.6 15.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.9 -7.9 -35.4   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -3,461 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -328 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,133 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.4 70.9 15.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 62.6 20.0 16.9 – Net Position: -3,461 3,581 -120 – Gross Longs: 943 4,985 1,072 – Gross Shorts: 4,404 1,404 1,192 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 3.6 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 1.8 96.9 36.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.5 8.3 -29.3   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Week 23 Charts: Forex Speculators Positions mostly higher led by Canadian dollar & Swiss franc

COT Week 23 Charts: Forex Speculators Positions mostly higher led by Canadian dollar & Swiss franc

Invest Macro Invest Macro 12.06.2022 17:16
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. COT Currencies market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for currency markets was the Canadian dollar (5,945 contracts) and the Swiss franc (4,326 contracts) with the British pound sterling (3,295 contracts), Japanese yen (2,793 contracts), Brazil real (1,389 contracts), Australian dollar (786 contracts), US Dollar Index (400 contracts) and Bitcoin (87 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Mexican peso (-2,723 contracts) and Euro (-1,729 contracts) with New Zealand dollar (-1,047 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. Currency Speculators Notes: US Dollar Index speculator bets have continued their upward climb in four out of the past five weeks as well as nine out of the past twelve weeks. USD Index remains in an extreme-bullish strength level and is very close (currently +37,938 contracts) to the highest net speculator position (+39,078 contracts on January 4th) of this recent bullish cycle, emphasizing the strong speculator bias. The Euro speculator position saw a pullback this week (-1,729 contracts) after huge gains in the previous three weeks (+58,650 contracts). Speculator sentiment is still pretty strong currently (+50,543 contracts) despite a very weak exchange rate (EURUSD at 1.0524 to close the week) and weak outlook for the Eurozone economy with rising inflation. British pound sterling speculator sentiment has crumbled in the past few months. The net speculator position managed to poke its head above its negative bias on February 15th with a total of +2,237 net contracts but sentiment has deteriorated since. From February 22nd to this week, speculator bets have dropped by a total of -73,047 contracts and recently hit a 139-week low on May 24th, the lowest level of speculator sentiment dating back to September of 2019. Japanese yen speculator positions are the most bearish of the major currencies just under -100,000 contracts. The USDJPY exchange rate is at a 20-year high and there has been no sign that the BOJ is interest in raising interest rates while other central banks commit to higher rates. These factors seem to say that the rout of the yen will continue ahead for some time (but how far can it go?). Commodity currency speculator bets are on the defensive lately. Australian dollar spec bets have fallen in five out of the past six weeks. Canadian dollar bets are now in bearish territory for a 5th straight week. New Zealand dollar speculator positions have declined in six out of the past seven weeks and the net position has now fallen to the lowest level since March of 2020 Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Brazilian Real, US Dollar Index and Bitcoin are all in extreme-bullish levels at the current moment. On the opposite end of the extreme spectrum, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc are very weak in relative speculator sentiment and sit in the extreme-bearish levels. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the commodity currencies have been losing sentiment over the last six weeks. The Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the New Zealand dollar have all had changes of at least -18.8 percent in their strength scores with the New Zealand dollar leading the decline with a -33.3 percent drop in six weeks. The US Dollar Index, Euro and Mexican Peso have had small but rising scores over the past six weeks. Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-07-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 65,163 100 37,938 91 -41,863 5 3,925 59 EUR 730,667 95 50,543 51 -88,189 51 37,646 37 GBP 258,623 76 -70,810 23 80,465 77 -9,655 36 JPY 266,054 100 -91,646 12 109,109 89 -17,463 18 CHF 49,794 41 -16,132 16 27,216 87 -11,084 20 CAD 167,373 42 -1,062 40 -13,401 58 14,463 59 AUD 166,422 57 -47,896 40 47,413 54 483 54 NZD 63,540 70 -19,771 38 22,681 65 -2,910 19 MXN 248,184 72 32,726 41 -38,117 57 5,391 66 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 72,371 70 46,705 96 -48,954 4 2,249 91 Bitcoin 10,990 58 490 93 -529 0 39 14   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 37,938 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 400 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,538 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 85.1 3.2 8.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.9 67.5 2.8 – Net Position: 37,938 -41,863 3,925 – Gross Longs: 55,460 2,090 5,780 – Gross Shorts: 17,522 43,953 1,855 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.2 to 1 0.0 to 1 3.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.2 5.0 59.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.0 -8.8 13.4   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 50,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,729 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,272 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.5 50.0 12.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.6 62.1 7.3 – Net Position: 50,543 -88,189 37,646 – Gross Longs: 230,248 365,628 90,978 – Gross Shorts: 179,705 453,817 53,332 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.5 51.0 36.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.7 -11.9 22.7   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -70,810 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,295 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,105 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.4 74.1 8.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.8 43.0 12.1 – Net Position: -70,810 80,465 -9,655 – Gross Longs: 34,618 191,742 21,602 – Gross Shorts: 105,428 111,277 31,257 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 23.0 77.3 35.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.9 -4.4 17.9   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -91,646 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,793 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -94,439 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.9 79.3 8.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.4 38.3 15.3 – Net Position: -91,646 109,109 -17,463 – Gross Longs: 18,466 210,889 23,226 – Gross Shorts: 110,112 101,780 40,689 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 12.4 88.9 18.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.4 -2.8 3.9   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -16,132 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,326 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,458 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.0 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.2 69.3 18.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.6 14.6 41.1 – Net Position: -16,132 27,216 -11,084 – Gross Longs: 2,609 34,494 9,378 – Gross Shorts: 18,741 7,278 20,462 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 4.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 15.6 86.9 20.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.3 2.4 6.0   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,062 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,945 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,007 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.5 44.2 22.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.1 52.2 13.7 – Net Position: -1,062 -13,401 14,463 – Gross Longs: 39,288 74,044 37,463 – Gross Shorts: 40,350 87,445 23,000 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 40.2 57.6 58.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -23.8 14.2 9.7   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -47,896 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 786 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,682 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 19.1 59.9 14.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 47.8 31.4 14.2 – Net Position: -47,896 47,413 483 – Gross Longs: 31,720 99,747 24,197 – Gross Shorts: 79,616 52,334 23,714 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 40.4 54.3 53.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.8 13.8 4.3   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -19,771 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,047 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,724 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 19.4 69.1 4.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.5 33.4 8.6 – Net Position: -19,771 22,681 -2,910 – Gross Longs: 12,310 43,890 2,538 – Gross Shorts: 32,081 21,209 5,448 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.1 65.4 18.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -33.3 31.2 -4.3   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 32,726 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,723 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,449 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 48.0 35.4 3.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 34.8 50.8 1.2 – Net Position: 32,726 -38,117 5,391 – Gross Longs: 119,162 87,884 8,441 – Gross Shorts: 86,436 126,001 3,050 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 41.3 56.9 65.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.4 -6.1 8.3   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 46,705 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,389 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,316 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 81.1 13.5 5.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.5 81.2 2.3 – Net Position: 46,705 -48,954 2,249 – Gross Longs: 58,657 9,780 3,931 – Gross Shorts: 11,952 58,734 1,682 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.9 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 96.3 3.5 91.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.2 -0.2 4.4   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 87 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 403 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 81.5 1.5 9.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 77.1 6.4 9.3 – Net Position: 490 -529 39 – Gross Longs: 8,959 169 1,063 – Gross Shorts: 8,469 698 1,024 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 93.2 21.6 13.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.5 -6.4 0.6   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
The movie that changed futures trading once and for all

The movie that changed futures trading once and for all

Purple Trading Purple Trading 14.06.2022 08:01
The movie that changed futures trading once and for all There is more than dozen of films about financial markets. However, there is only one that had such an impact that it led to a legislative change in the commodity futures market. Which movie are we talking about and what changes it introduce in regards to commodity trading? Read on! Holywood’s fascination with financial markets Holywood is no stranger to depicting the world of financial markets. The subject became particularly attractive in the 1980s, when it became clear that market capitalism was more viable economic model than central planning of the Eastern Bloc, resulting in many films set in the stock market environment, majority of which focusing on Wall Street. However, only one of these films has managed to leave a mark in the memory of viewers as well as in law textbooks. Trading Places - a probe into the world of commodity trading Brothers Mortimer and Randolp Duke are bored billionaires who own a commodities trading brokerage firm. One day, as a part of somewhat cynical bet, they decide to swap the lives of a young and promising businessman, Louis Winthorpe III (Dan Aykroyd), and a street hustler, Billy Ray Valentine (Eddie Murphy). They want to crush the dreams of the former while helping the latter to become familiar in the world of financial markets. From today's perspective, the film is a unique probe into the workings of the financial markets before they were heavily computerised. In addition to the brilliant scenes in which are the Duke brothers explaining to Billy Valentine how commodities trading works, we also get a glimpse behind the scenes at the New York Board of Trade, where commodities are traded (climactic trading scenes were actually filmed there). The bulk of the plot and the main storyline then revolves around the trading of Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice (FCOJ), specifically the futures contracts of this commodity. Eddie Murphy rule   This rule, officially titled "Section 136 of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Transparency and Accountability Reform and Consumer Protection Act, under Section 746" (but commonly referred to as "the Eddie Murphy rule"), prohibits the misuse of internal government information for the purpose of trading in the commodities markets. No one likes spoilers, so if you haven't seen this movie, we won't give away the plot and the denouement of the final scene of the entire movie. We'll just mention that shorting of FCOJ futures plays an important role here. In fact, so important, that this scene is reportedly often reference by traders on the New York Stock Exchange. Figure 1: The final scene of the film that initiated the inception of "Eddie Murphy rule" (source IMDb.com) Trading FCOJ futures today Although nowadays you don't see crowded rooms full of white collar men and women trying to buy low and sell high, FCOJ futures trading still exists. The only main difference is that rooms and phones have been replaced by computer screens and cubicles. Also, virtually anyone can trade today. If you are interested in trying out CFD trading of FCOJ futures, at Purple Trading we have recently introduced this instrument to our trader platforms. Just like our heroes of Trading Places, you can short (and long) and potentialy profit from both favourable and unfavourable market situations. The only difference is that you won't be able to use government information to do so, because Eddie Murphy Rule wouldn't allow you to.
The Swing Overview – Week 23 2022

The Swing Overview – Week 23 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 17.06.2022 08:53
The Swing Overview - Week 23 Major global stock indices broke through their support levels after several days of range movement in response to the tightening economy, the ongoing war in Ukraine, slowing economic growth and high inflation. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its interest rate by 0.50%. The ECB decided to start raising interest rates by 0.25% from July 2022. The winner of last week is the US dollar, which continues to strengthen. Macroeconomic data Data from the US labour market was highly anticipated. The job creation indicator, the so-called NFP, surprised the markets positively. Analysts expected that 325,000 new jobs had been created in May. In fact, 390 thousand jobs were created in the US. Unemployment is at 3.6%. The information on the growth of hourly wages, which is a leading indicator of inflation, was important. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in May, less than analysts who expected 0.4%.   Unemployment claims reached 229,000 this week. This is the highest levels since 3/3/2022. However, this is not an extreme increase. The number of claims is still in the pre-pandemic average area. Nevertheless, it can be seen that since 7/4/2022, when the number of applications reached 166 thousand, the number of applications is slowly increasing and this indicator will be closely monitored.  The ISM index of purchasing managers in the US service sector reached 55.9 in May. This is lower than the previous month's reading of 57.1. A value above 50 still points to expansion in the sector although the decline in the reading indicates  economy.   The yield on the US 10-year bond is close to its peak and is currently around 3%. The rise in yields has been followed by a rise in the US dollar. The dollar index has surpassed 103. The reason for the strengthening of the dollar is the aggressive tightening of the economy by the US Fed, which began reducing the central bank's balance sheet on June 1, 2022. In practice, this means that the Fed will let expire the government bonds it previously bought as part of QE and will not reinvest them further. The first tranche of bonds will expire on June 15, so the effect of this operation remains to be seen. Figure 1: The US 10-year bond yields and USD index on the daily chart   The SP 500 Index The SP 500 index has been moving in a narrow range for the past few days between 4,200, where resistance is and 4,080, where support has been tested several times. This support was broken and has become the new resistance as we can see on the H4 chart.   Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   The catalyst for this strong initiation move is the strong US dollar and rising bond yields. Therefore, the current resistance is in the 4,075 - 4,085 range.  The nearest support is 3,965 - 3,970 according to the H4 chart. The next support is 3,879 - 3,907.   German DAX index Macroeconomic data that affected the DAX was manufacturing orders for April, which fell 2.7% month-on-month, while analysts were expecting a 0.3% rise. Industrial production in Germany rose by 0.7% in April (expectations were for 1.0%). The war in Ukraine has a strong impact on the weaker figures. The catalyst for breaking support was the ECB's decision to raise interest rates, which the bank will start implementing from July 2022. Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The DAX is below the SMA 100 moving average according to the daily and H4 chart. This shows a bearish sentiment. The nearest resistance is 14,300 - 14,335. Support is at 13,870 - 13,900 according to the H4 chart.   The ECB left the interest rate unchanged  The ECB left interest rates unchanged on June 9, 2022, so the key rate is still at 0.0%. However, the bank said that it will proceed with a rate hike from July, when the rate is expected to rise by 0.25%. The next hike will then be in September, probably again by 0.25%. The bank pointed to the high inflation rate, which is expected to reach 6.8% for 2022. Inflation is expected to fall to 3.4% in 2023 and 2.1% in 2024.  Figure 4: The EUR/USD on H4 and daily chart According to the bank, a significant risk is Russia's unjustified aggression against Ukraine, which is causing problems in supply chains and pushing energy and some commodity prices up. The result is a slowdown in the growth of the European economy. The bank also announced that it will end its asset purchase program as of July 1, 2022. This is the soft end of this program, as the money that will flow from matured assets will continue to be reinvested by the bank. In practice, this means that the ECB's balance sheet will not be further inflated, but for now, unlike the Fed’s balance sheet, the bank has no plans to reduce its balance sheet. This, coupled with the more moderate rate hike plans and the existence of the above risks, has supported the dollar and the euro has begun to weaken sharply in response to the ECB announcement. The resistance is 1.0760-1.0770. Current support at 1.063-1.064 is broken and it will become new resistance if the break is confirmed. The next support according to the H4 chart is 1.0530 - 1.0550.   Australian central bank surprises with aggressive approach In Australia, the central bank raised its policy rate by 0.50%. Analysts had expected the bank to raise the rate by 0.25%. Thus, the current rate on the Australian dollar is 0.80%. However, this aggressive increase did not strengthen the Australian dollar, which surprisingly weakened. The reason for this is the strong US dollar and also the risk off sentiment that is taking place in the equity indices.  Also impacting the Aussie is the situation in China, where there is zero tolerance of COVID-19. This will impact the country's economic growth, which is very likely to fall short of the 5.5% that was originally projected.  Figure 5: The AUD/USD on H4 and daily chart According to the H4 chart, the AUD/USD currency pair has broken below the SMA 100 moving average, which is a bearish signal. The nearest resistance is 0.7140 - 0.7150. The support is in the zone 0.7030 - 0.7040. 
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 7/6/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 7/6/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 17.06.2022 10:30
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 7/6/2022 Total net speculator positions on the USD index rose by 400 contracts last week to 37,938 contracts. This change is the result of a 600-contract increase in long positions and a 200-contract increase in short positions. On the euro, there was a decrease in total net positions after a significant previous increase. A reduction in total net positions also occurred on the New Zealand dollar last week. Increases in total net positions occurred last week on the British pound, the Australian dollar, the Japanese yen, the Canadian dollar, and the Swiss franc. The markets experienced high volatility last week, triggered by concerns that the economy was tightening more rapidly on the back of rising inflation. As a result, equity indices have continued to fall and this risk-off sentiment has led to a strengthening of the US dollar and a weakening of more or less all currencies tracked. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Jun 7, 2022    37938 50543 -70810 -47896 -19771 -91646 -1062 -16132 May 31, 2022 37538 52272 -74105 -48682 -18724 -94439 -7007 -20458 May 24, 2022 38039 38930 -80372 -45446 -19321 -99444 -12687 -19673 May 17, 2022 36213 20339 -79241 -44642 -17767 -102309 -14496 -16592 May 10, 2022 34776 16529 -79598 -41714 -12996 -110454 -5407 -15763 May 03, 2022 33071 -6378 -73813 -28516 -6610 -100794 9029 -13907   Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com   The Euro   DatE Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions Change Open Interest Change Long Change Short Change Net Positions Sentiment Jun 07, 2022 730667 230248 179705 50543 24350 -6305 -4576 -1729 Weak bullish May 31, 2022 706317 236553 184281 52272 -2621 -519 -13861 13342 Bullish May 24, 2022 708938 237072 198142 38930 2226 6302 -12289 18591 Bullish May 17, 2022 706712 230770 210431 20339 1666 2540 -1270 3810 Bullish May 10, 2022 705046 228230 211701 16529 10120 19781 -3126 22907 Bullish May 03, 2022 694926 208449 214827 -6378 6477 -14544 14035 -28579 Bearish         Total Change 42218 7255 -21087 28342     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EUR/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached 50 543 contracts last week, down by 1 729 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 6,305 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 4,576 contracts. This data suggests weak bullish sentiment as total net positions are positive but at the same time there has been a decline. Open interest rose by 24,350 contracts in the last week. This shows that the downward movement that occurred in the euro last week was supported by volume and it was therefore a strong price action. The price bounced off resistance at the EMA 50 moving average and is approaching horizontal support which is in the band at 1.0400. The weakening euro is a result of the ECB's approach to inflation. The ECB announced to raise the rate by 0.25% from July, which is significantly less than the interest rate increase implemented by the US Fed.  Long-term resistance: 1.0620 – 1.0650. The next resistance is at 1.0770-1.0780. Support: 1.0340 – 1.0420 The British pound DatE Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions Change Open Interest Change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Jun 7, 2022 258623 34618 105428 -70810 5742 3830 535 3295 Weak bullish May 31, 2022 252881 30788 104893 -74105 -983 4852 -1415 6267 Weak bearish May 24, 2022 253864 25936 106308 -80372 53 -677 454 -1131 Bearish May 17, 2022 253811 26613 105854 -79241 -10783 -2856 -3213 357 Weak bearish May 10 2022 264594 29469 109067 -79598 -3902 -4067 1718 -5785 Bearish May 03, 2022 268496 33536 107349 -73813 -4296 -6900 -2708 -4192 Bearish         Total Change -14169 -5818 -4629 -1189     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBP/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week reached - 70,810 contracts, having increased by 3,295 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth in long positions by 3,830 contracts and the growth in short positions by 535 contracts. This suggests weak bearish sentiment as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, but at the same time there has been an increase in them. Open interest rose by 5742 contracts last week, indicating that the downward movement in the pound that occurred last week was supported by volume and it was therefore a strong price action. The pound is weakening strongly in the current risk off sentiment and has reached its long term support. Long-term resistance: 1.2440 – 1.2476.    Support: 1.2160 – 1.2200   The Australian dollar   DatE Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions Change Open Interest Change Long Change Short Change Net Positions Sentiment Jun 7, 2022 166422 31720 79616 -47896 12761 -1177 -1963 786 Weak bearish May 31, 2022 153661 32897 81579 -48682 -4954 -3682 -446 -3236 Bearish May 24, 2022 158615 36579 82025 -45446 -5194 -4894 -4090 -804 Bearish May 17, 2022 163809 41473 86115 -44642 10600 4604 7532 -2928 Bearish May 10, 2022 153209 36869 78583 -41714 952 -10126 3072 13198 Bearish May 03, 2022 152257 46995 75511 -28516 5167 -110 755 -865 Bearish         Total Change 19332 -15385 4860 -20245     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUD/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached 47,896 contracts last week, up by 786 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 1,177 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 1,963 contracts. This data suggests weak bearish sentiment on the Australian dollar, as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, but at the same time there was an increase in them in the previous week. There was an increase in open interest of 12,761 contracts last week. This means that the downward movement that occurred last week on the AUD was supported by volume and it was therefore a strong price action. The Australian dollar is weakening sharply even though the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 0.50% last week. The reason for this bearish decline is the current risk-off sentiment which is particularly threatening commodity currencies, which includes the Australian dollar. Long-term resistance: 0.7250-0.7260                                                                                                              Long-term support: 0.6830-0.6850  (the support zone begins at 0.6930 according to a weekly chart).   The New Zealand dollar   DatE Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions Change Open Interest Change Long Change Short Change Net Positions Sentiment Jun 7, 2022 63540 12310 32081 -19771 8406 3131 4178 -1047 Bearish May 31, 2022 55134 9179 27903 -18724 -4145 -1570 -2167 597 Weak bearish May 24, 2022 59279 10749 30070 -19321 -1525 -4249 -2695 -1554 Bearish May 17, 2022 60804 14998 32765 -17767 4569 -205 4566 -4771 Bearish May 10, 2022 56235 15203 28199 -12996 5391 -2224 4162 -6386 Bearish May 03, 2022 50844 17427 24037 -6610 4334 -4658 2018 -6676 Bearish         Total Change 17030 -9775 10062 -19837     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZD/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week amounted to -19,771 contracts, down by 1,047 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 3,131 contracts and an increase in short positions by 4,178 contracts. This data suggests that there has been bearish sentiment on the New Zealand Dollar over the past week as the total net positions of large speculators have been negative and there was further decline in them as well. Open interest rose by 8,406 contracts last week. The downward move in NZD/USD that occurred last week was supported by volume and therefore the move was strong. The NZD/USD bounced off the resistance band at 0.6570 and approached significant support. The decline in the New Zealand Dollar is mainly due to risk off sentiment in equity markets. Long-term resistance: 0.6540 – 0.6570 Long-term support: 0.6220 – 0.6280   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
COT Week 24 Charts: Energy Speculator Positions Mixed led by Heating Oil & WTI Crude

COT Week 24 Charts: Energy Speculator Positions Mixed led by Heating Oil & WTI Crude

Invest Macro Invest Macro 18.06.2022 13:18
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for energy markets was Heating Oil (3,589 contracts) and then Gasoline (968 contracts) with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (72 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, on the downside, the markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-25,310 contracts) and Natural Gas (-9,143 contracts) while Brent Crude Oil (-291 contracts) also registered lower bets on the week. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index has the highest strength score with a 75.7 strength score followed by Heating Oil and Brent Crude Oil. WTI Crude Oil (currently at the lowest level of past three years or 0 percent) and Gasoline (2.2 percent) currently are in bearish-extreme levels with speculator sentiment very weak. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that Heating Oil and the Bloomberg Commodity Index have had rising scores over the past six weeks while all the other energy markets have had declining moves. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-14-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,715,674 0 302,946 0 -341,654 100 38,708 70 Gold 497,456 13 154,598 0 -178,569 100 23,971 15 Silver 151,978 18 14,005 0 -22,047 100 8,042 0 Copper 187,247 17 -13,797 32 10,287 67 3,510 46 Palladium 7,740 6 -4,057 0 4,354 100 -297 27 Platinum 66,613 33 2,214 7 -6,793 96 4,579 26 Natural Gas 1,053,265 0 -123,485 42 74,310 54 49,175 96 Brent 171,026 17 -36,389 50 34,601 51 1,788 33 Heating Oil 268,199 23 8,475 55 -28,686 41 20,211 68 Soybeans 754,428 34 182,667 70 -155,663 37 -27,004 25 Corn 1,521,565 25 399,775 81 -344,196 23 -55,579 11 Coffee 202,656 0 46,885 79 -48,399 25 1,514 5 Sugar 800,806 1 170,483 72 -198,006 31 27,523 42 Wheat 336,890 13 20,435 46 -18,089 34 -2,346 98   WTI Crude Oil Futures: The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 302,946 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -25,310 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 328,256 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent. WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.9 35.3 5.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.2 55.2 3.0 – Net Position: 302,946 -341,654 38,708 – Gross Longs: 409,427 604,944 90,476 – Gross Shorts: 106,481 946,598 51,768 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 69.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.5 9.2 -8.2   Brent Crude Oil Futures: The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -36,389 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -291 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,098 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.6 52.0 4.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 34.9 31.8 3.3 – Net Position: -36,389 34,601 1,788 – Gross Longs: 23,246 88,924 7,365 – Gross Shorts: 59,635 54,323 5,577 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.1 50.8 33.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.2 14.3 6.5   Natural Gas Futures: The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -123,485 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,143 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -114,342 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent. Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.9 38.9 7.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.6 31.8 2.4 – Net Position: -123,485 74,310 49,175 – Gross Longs: 220,256 409,613 74,311 – Gross Shorts: 343,741 335,303 25,136 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 3.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 41.5 54.3 96.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.7 0.5 10.2   Gasoline Blendstock Futures: The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 31,456 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 968 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,488 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.1 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.8 53.2 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.7 67.4 4.2 – Net Position: 31,456 -43,672 12,216 – Gross Longs: 76,744 164,469 25,175 – Gross Shorts: 45,288 208,141 12,959 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.2 93.4 94.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.0 5.3 10.7   #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures: The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 8,475 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,589 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,886 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent. Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.1 50.5 16.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.0 61.2 9.2 – Net Position: 8,475 -28,686 20,211 – Gross Longs: 45,945 135,386 45,006 – Gross Shorts: 37,470 164,072 24,795 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 54.9 40.7 68.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 24.5 -15.6 -6.8   Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures: The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -8,311 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 72 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,383 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent. Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.0 51.7 0.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.5 42.8 0.1 – Net Position: -8,311 7,764 547 – Gross Longs: 25,428 45,267 619 – Gross Shorts: 33,739 37,503 72 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1 8.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 75.7 23.2 38.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 19.3 -18.9 -5.0   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Week 24 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculators Positions mostly lower led by Sugar & Cocoa

COT Week 24 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculators Positions mostly lower led by Sugar & Cocoa

Invest Macro Invest Macro 18.06.2022 14:18
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. The soft commodities market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as just three out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while eight markets had lower speculator bets. Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Corn (8,511 contracts) and Live Cattle (7,316 contracts) with Soybeans (6,023 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-24,920 contracts) and Cocoa (-17,863 contracts) with Soybean Oil (-5,247 contracts), Cotton (-4,427 contracts), Wheat (-3,446 contracts), Lean Hogs (-3,105 contracts), Coffee (-1,882 contracts) and Soybean Meal (-845 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Corn (81.1 percent and bullish-extreme) is at the highest level of the softs currently followed by Coffee and Soybean Meal. On the downside, Lean Hogs (14.8 percent) and Cocoa (14.3 percent) are in bearish-extreme levels and have the weakest speculator strength scores at the moment. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that Coffee and Wheat have the only rising scores over the past six weeks. Cocoa leads the trends on the downside with a -39.1 percent trend change followed by Live Cattle (-17.9 percent) and Lean Hogs (-16 percent). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-14-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,715,674 0 302,946 0 -341,654 100 38,708 70 Gold 497,456 13 154,598 0 -178,569 100 23,971 15 Silver 151,978 18 14,005 0 -22,047 100 8,042 0 Copper 187,247 17 -13,797 32 10,287 67 3,510 46 Palladium 7,740 6 -4,057 0 4,354 100 -297 27 Platinum 66,613 33 2,214 7 -6,793 96 4,579 26 Natural Gas 1,053,265 0 -123,485 42 74,310 54 49,175 96 Brent 171,026 17 -36,389 50 34,601 51 1,788 33 Heating Oil 268,199 23 8,475 55 -28,686 41 20,211 68 Soybeans 754,428 34 182,667 70 -155,663 37 -27,004 25 Corn 1,521,565 25 399,775 81 -344,196 23 -55,579 11 Coffee 202,656 0 46,885 79 -48,399 25 1,514 5 Sugar 800,806 1 170,483 72 -198,006 31 27,523 42 Wheat 336,890 13 20,435 46 -18,089 34 -2,346 98   CORN Futures: The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 399,775 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,511 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 391,264 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.1 percent. CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.2 44.6 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.9 67.2 12.8 – Net Position: 399,775 -344,196 -55,579 – Gross Longs: 519,685 678,186 139,407 – Gross Shorts: 119,910 1,022,382 194,986 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 81.1 22.9 11.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.0 15.2 -2.8   SUGAR Futures: The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 170,483 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -24,920 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 195,403 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.1 47.6 10.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.8 72.3 6.7 – Net Position: 170,483 -198,006 27,523 – Gross Longs: 233,102 380,876 80,955 – Gross Shorts: 62,619 578,882 53,432 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 71.7 30.6 41.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.4 7.3 -9.0   COFFEE Futures: The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 46,885 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,882 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,767 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.1 percent. COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.3 49.4 4.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.2 73.3 3.6 – Net Position: 46,885 -48,399 1,514 – Gross Longs: 55,397 100,060 8,883 – Gross Shorts: 8,512 148,459 7,369 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 79.3 25.3 5.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.3 -4.9 -8.0   SOYBEANS Futures: The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 182,667 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,023 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 176,644 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent. SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.5 49.3 6.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.3 69.9 10.2 – Net Position: 182,667 -155,663 -27,004 – Gross Longs: 229,930 371,675 50,027 – Gross Shorts: 47,263 527,338 77,031 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.9 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.8 37.1 25.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.4 2.9 -3.3   SOYBEAN OIL Futures: The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 73,398 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,247 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,645 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent. SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.3 50.9 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.4 73.4 5.5 – Net Position: 73,398 -87,101 13,703 – Gross Longs: 102,073 198,015 35,202 – Gross Shorts: 28,675 285,116 21,499 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 54.8 43.4 64.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.9 14.5 -1.0   SOYBEAN MEAL Futures: The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 88,831 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -845 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 89,676 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent. SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.6 43.8 12.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.5 73.6 5.9 – Net Position: 88,831 -114,735 25,904 – Gross Longs: 106,273 168,517 48,694 – Gross Shorts: 17,442 283,252 22,790 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.9 23.3 67.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.0 2.6 29.3   LIVE CATTLE Futures: The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 32,744 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,428 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent. LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.9 40.6 11.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.9 51.6 12.3 – Net Position: 32,744 -30,120 -2,624 – Gross Longs: 100,918 110,947 30,976 – Gross Shorts: 68,174 141,067 33,600 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 20.4 72.1 72.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.9 15.4 10.5   LEAN HOGS Futures: The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 7,386 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,105 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,491 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent. LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.7 43.9 9.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.8 43.8 13.8 – Net Position: 7,386 202 -7,588 – Gross Longs: 57,305 84,837 19,098 – Gross Shorts: 49,919 84,635 26,686 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 14.8 93.7 57.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -16.0 20.7 -15.1   COTTON Futures: The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 66,255 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,427 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,682 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent. COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.1 41.6 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.9 79.5 4.5 – Net Position: 66,255 -75,657 9,402 – Gross Longs: 81,941 82,992 18,322 – Gross Shorts: 15,686 158,649 8,920 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.2 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 64.9 33.8 71.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -11.0 11.9 -19.5   COCOA Futures: The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -17,863 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,494 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent. COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.0 45.5 5.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.1 45.5 4.8 – Net Position: -3,369 -126 3,495 – Gross Longs: 90,712 142,236 18,389 – Gross Shorts: 94,081 142,362 14,894 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 14.3 85.8 31.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -39.1 42.0 -32.3   WHEAT Futures: The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of 20,435 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,881 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.2 percent. WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.3 38.0 10.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.3 43.4 11.4 – Net Position: 20,435 -18,089 -2,346 – Gross Longs: 105,566 128,087 36,114 – Gross Shorts: 85,131 146,176 38,460 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.6 33.9 98.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.6 -5.5 17.9   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Week 24 Charts: Bond Market Speculators Bets mostly higher led by Eurodollar & 10-Year Bonds

COT Week 24 Charts: Bond Market Speculators Bets mostly higher led by Eurodollar & 10-Year Bonds

Invest Macro Invest Macro 18.06.2022 14:58
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. COT bond market speculator bets were mixed as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets had falling speculator contracts for the week. Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Eurodollar (791,810 contracts) and the 10-Year Bond (60,658 contracts) with Fed Funds (56,698 contracts), 5-Year Bond (31,476 contracts) and the 2-Year Bond (10,067 contracts) also showing positive weeks. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Long US Bond (-34,363 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (-26,628 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year (-5,373 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Treasury Bond (75 percent) is at the highest level of the bonds markets currently. On the lower end, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (7.7 percent) and 3-Month Eurodollars (15.4 percent) are in bearish-extreme levels and have the weakest speculator strength scores at the moment. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the 5-Year Bond (22.5 percent) and Fed Funds (20.5 percent) are leading the rising trend scores over the past six weeks. The US Treasury Bond leads the trends on the downside with a -9.2 percent trend change followed by the 10-Year Bonds and Ultra 10-Year Bonds. Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-14-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index Eurodollar 9,327,824 9 -1,854,692 19 2,223,303 81 -368,611 23 FedFunds 1,680,512 52 110,931 53 -115,511 46 4,580 71 2-Year 2,012,004 10 -160,422 50 228,211 70 -67,789 20 Long T-Bond 1,188,806 47 -29,400 75 43,870 32 -14,470 41 10-Year 3,509,639 30 -205,529 41 374,018 66 -168,489 40 5-Year 3,889,422 45 -191,071 50 372,681 59 -181,610 31   3-Month Eurodollars Futures: The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,854,692 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 791,810 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,646,502 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent. 3-Month Eurodollars Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.0 68.9 4.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.9 45.1 8.4 – Net Position: -1,854,692 2,223,303 -368,611 – Gross Longs: 651,750 6,428,169 412,783 – Gross Shorts: 2,506,442 4,204,866 781,394 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 18.8 80.8 23.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.4 -15.7 11.1   30-Day Federal Funds Futures: The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 110,931 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 56,698 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,233 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent. 30-Day Federal Funds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.2 70.8 2.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.6 77.6 2.5 – Net Position: 110,931 -115,511 4,580 – Gross Longs: 221,596 1,189,101 46,737 – Gross Shorts: 110,665 1,304,612 42,157 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.3 45.9 71.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.5 -21.4 25.1   2-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -160,422 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 10,067 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -170,489 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent. 2-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.7 77.3 7.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.7 65.9 10.5 – Net Position: -160,422 228,211 -67,789 – Gross Longs: 236,115 1,554,892 143,727 – Gross Shorts: 396,537 1,326,681 211,516 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.9 69.7 20.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.3 -3.8 20.3   5-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -191,071 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 31,476 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -222,547 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. 5-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.6 80.8 7.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.5 71.2 12.5 – Net Position: -191,071 372,681 -181,610 – Gross Longs: 374,601 3,141,449 302,708 – Gross Shorts: 565,672 2,768,768 484,318 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.7 58.8 31.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 22.5 -16.7 2.5   10-Year Treasury Note Futures: The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -205,529 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 60,658 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -266,187 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent. 10-Year Treasury Note Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.2 80.3 8.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.1 69.7 13.5 – Net Position: -205,529 374,018 -168,489 – Gross Longs: 253,485 2,819,950 305,184 – Gross Shorts: 459,014 2,445,932 473,673 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 41.2 66.3 39.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.8 7.2 -0.6   Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures: The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -81,207 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,834 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent. Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.5 83.7 11.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.1 66.2 21.8 – Net Position: -81,207 213,971 -132,764 – Gross Longs: 55,047 1,027,514 134,825 – Gross Shorts: 136,254 813,543 267,589 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 7.7 95.2 36.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.7 -2.9 -11.3   US Treasury Bonds Futures: The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -29,400 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -34,363 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,963 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent. US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.7 76.8 13.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.1 73.1 14.3 – Net Position: -29,400 43,870 -14,470 – Gross Longs: 102,957 912,867 155,248 – Gross Shorts: 132,357 868,997 169,718 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 75.0 32.3 41.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -14.0 12.7 3.3   Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures: The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -341,601 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -26,628 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -314,973 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 50.0 percent. Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.2 84.1 11.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.5 60.1 9.1 – Net Position: -341,601 311,386 30,215 – Gross Longs: 41,147 1,091,594 147,658 – Gross Shorts: 382,748 780,208 117,443 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.9 67.4 50.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.2 6.2 7.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Week 24 Charts: Metals Speculator bets lower as Gold & Copper bets drop

COT Week 24 Charts: Metals Speculator bets lower as Gold & Copper bets drop

Invest Macro Invest Macro 18.06.2022 16:18
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. COT Metals market speculator bets were lower this week as all five of the metals markets we cover had lower positioning this week. Leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Gold (-20,670 contracts) and Copper (-10,083 contracts) with Platinum (-3,719 contracts), Silver (-3,399 contracts) and Palladium (-596 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. Highlighting this week’s COT metals data was the further weakness in bullish bets for the Gold futures contracts. Gold speculators sharply dropped their bullish bets by -20,670 contracts this week and have now seen lower positions for two out of three weeks as well as for the seventh time in the past nine weeks. Over the nine-week time-frame, Gold speculator bets have fallen by a total of -99,689 contracts, going from +254,297 net positions on April 12th to +154,598 net positions this week. These decreases have brought the current level down to the least bullish standing of the past one hundred and fifty-nine weeks, dating back to May 28th of 2019. Despite the speculator weakness, the Gold futures price has not fallen too sharply although prices have cooled off since hitting an almost two-year high of $2,078 on March 8th. The Gold price currently remains trading in its range between approximately $1,800 and $1,884 that has prevailed since early in May and over the longer-term, remains in an uptrend. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Copper (32.4 percent) is the leading pack this week although this score is just slightly above a extreme bearish score. All the other markets are currently in extreme bearish levels (below 20 percent) as speculator sentiment among the metals is very weak at the moment. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Platinum (5.4 percent) and Copper (1.3 percent) are the only two metals with rising trend scores. Gold and Silver are neck and neck for leading the trends to the downside with scores of -22.4 percent (Gold) and -22 percent (Silver), respectively, while Platinum (-7.3 percent) also has a negative trend score for the week. Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-14-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,715,674 0 302,946 0 -341,654 100 38,708 70 Gold 497,456 13 154,598 0 -178,569 100 23,971 15 Silver 151,978 18 14,005 0 -22,047 100 8,042 0 Copper 187,247 17 -13,797 32 10,287 67 3,510 46 Palladium 7,740 6 -4,057 0 4,354 100 -297 27 Platinum 66,613 33 2,214 7 -6,793 96 4,579 26 Natural Gas 1,053,265 0 -123,485 42 74,310 54 49,175 96 Brent 171,026 17 -36,389 50 34,601 51 1,788 33 Heating Oil 268,199 23 8,475 55 -28,686 41 20,211 68 Soybeans 754,428 34 182,667 70 -155,663 37 -27,004 25 Corn 1,521,565 25 399,775 81 -344,196 23 -55,579 11 Coffee 202,656 0 46,885 79 -48,399 25 1,514 5 Sugar 800,806 1 170,483 72 -198,006 31 27,523 42 Wheat 336,890 13 20,435 46 -18,089 34 -2,346 98   Gold Comex Futures: The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 154,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -20,670 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 175,268 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent. Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 53.6 24.5 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.5 60.4 4.4 – Net Position: 154,598 -178,569 23,971 – Gross Longs: 266,596 121,926 45,726 – Gross Shorts: 111,998 300,495 21,755 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.4 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 14.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.4 25.7 -31.1   Silver Comex Futures: The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 14,005 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,399 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,404 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.6 39.6 16.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.4 54.1 10.7 – Net Position: 14,005 -22,047 8,042 – Gross Longs: 57,216 60,161 24,268 – Gross Shorts: 43,211 82,208 16,226 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 0.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.0 21.9 -16.9   Copper Grade #1 Futures: The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -13,797 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -10,083 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,714 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.3 55.2 8.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 34.6 49.7 6.9 – Net Position: -13,797 10,287 3,510 – Gross Longs: 51,077 103,433 16,449 – Gross Shorts: 64,874 93,146 12,939 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 32.4 66.5 45.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.3 0.1 -11.8   Platinum Futures: The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 2,214 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,719 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,933 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent. Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.7 42.3 12.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 34.3 52.5 6.0 – Net Position: 2,214 -6,793 4,579 – Gross Longs: 25,085 28,194 8,597 – Gross Shorts: 22,871 34,987 4,018 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 6.5 95.7 25.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.4 -4.3 -8.8   Palladium Futures: The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -4,057 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -596 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,461 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.5 71.8 14.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 65.9 15.5 18.1 – Net Position: -4,057 4,354 -297 – Gross Longs: 1,045 5,555 1,105 – Gross Shorts: 5,102 1,201 1,402 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 4.6 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 26.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.3 10.7 -34.4   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Currency Speculators boost US Dollar Index bets to 5-year high while Euro bets dip into bearish level

Currency Speculators boost US Dollar Index bets to 5-year high while Euro bets dip into bearish level

Invest Macro Invest Macro 18.06.2022 20:13
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. There were many really large moves this week in the COT positioning as the data was recorded on Tuesday – just one day ahead of the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 75 basis point increase in the US benchmark Fed Funds rate. Currency market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets (Russian ruble futures positions have not been updated by the CFTC since March) we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for currency market positions was the Canadian dollar (24,264 contracts) and the Japanese yen (21,891 contracts) with the New Zealand dollar (12,933 contracts), Swiss franc (9,324 contracts), US Dollar Index (6,538 contracts), British pound sterling (5,214 contracts), Australian dollar (4,642 contracts), Bitcoin (571 contracts) and Brazil real (508 contracts) also showing positive weeks. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets were the Mexican peso (-59,107 contracts) and the Euro (-56,561 contracts) this week. Currency Speculators Notes: US Dollar Index speculators raised their bullish bets for a second straight week this week and for the seventh time in the past ten weeks. These increases pushed the large speculator standing (+44,476 contracts) to the highest level in the past two hundred and seventy-three weeks, dating back more than five years to March 21st of 2017. The most bullish level ever was +81,270 contracts on March 10th of 2015. The US dollar strength keeps rolling along and the overall standing has now remained bullish for the past fifty consecutive weeks, dating back to July of 2021. The US Dollar Index price has continued its strength as well and reached a high this week of over 105.75 which is the best level for the DXY since back in December of 2002. Euro speculators sharply dropped their positions this week by the most on record with a huge decline of -56,561 contracts. This record decline beat out the previous high of -52,107 contracts that took place on June 19th of 2018. Euro bets had been gaining over the past month and were at a total of +50,543 contracts before this week’s sharp turnaround which has now tipped the overall spec positioning into bearish territory for the first time since January. Japanese yen speculator bets surged this week (+21,891 contracts) and gained for the fifth straight week. Yen speculator positions have been in bearish territory for over a year and have been extremely week since many central banks around the world started raising their interest rates. The Bank of Japan has not raised rates and has signaled that it will not do so, creating large interest rate differentials compared to the other major currencies. Despite the spec bets increase this week, the yen exchange rate came under further pressure this week with the USDJPY price closing over the 135.00 exchange rate (and remaining near 20-year highs). Mexican Peso speculator bets fell sharply by -59,381 contracts this week and flipped the MXN speculator positioning from bullish to bearish. The weekly speculator decline is the largest fall in the past thirteen weeks and the decrease into a bearish standing is the first time since March 29th. Canadian dollar bets jumped this week by the most in the past seventy-seven weeks and brought the speculator position back into bullish territory for the first time in six weeks. CAD speculator bets have now gained for four straight weeks and the overall spec standing is residing at the highest level since July 2021. New Zealand dollar speculators also boosted their bets this week after the NZD positions had dropped in six out of the previous seven weeks. This week’s rise in weekly bets was the most in the past thirteen weeks but the overall speculator standing remains in bearish territory for the seventh straight week. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Dollar Index (100 percent), Bitcoin (100 percent) and the Brazilian Real (96.8 percent) are leading the strength scores and are all in extreme bullish positions. On the downside, the Mexican peso (16.1 percent) has fallen into extreme bearish positioning followed by the Japanese yen (25.9 percent) and British pound (26.7 percent) which are just above the 20 percent extreme bearish threshold. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the US Dollar Index (19.5 percent), Japanese yen (19.1 percent) and Swiss franc (18 percent) have the highest six-week trend scores currently. The Mexican peso also leads the trends on the downside with a -17.5 percent trend change. Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-14-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 61,144 91 44,476 100 -47,736 0 3,260 52 EUR 668,164 69 -6,018 33 -28,495 68 34,513 32 GBP 238,322 63 -65,596 27 81,063 78 -15,467 24 JPY 232,513 77 -69,755 26 86,443 78 -16,688 20 CHF 39,362 20 -6,808 39 18,147 72 -11,339 19 CAD 175,219 47 23,202 65 -30,284 43 7,082 44 AUD 142,857 39 -43,254 45 44,710 52 -1,456 49 NZD 45,410 35 -6,838 60 9,773 45 -2,935 18 MXN 197,375 48 -26,381 16 23,148 82 3,233 57 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 69,931 67 47,213 97 -48,458 4 1,245 79 Bitcoin 12,242 68 1,061 100 -947 0 -114 10   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 44,476 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,538 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,938 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 86.9 2.9 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.2 80.9 3.8 – Net Position: 44,476 -47,736 3,260 – Gross Longs: 53,133 1,752 5,553 – Gross Shorts: 8,657 49,488 2,293 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.1 to 1 0.0 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 52.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 19.2 -19.1 7.1   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -6,018 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -56,561 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,543 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.0 54.1 12.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.9 58.3 7.5 – Net Position: -6,018 -28,495 34,513 – Gross Longs: 206,986 361,159 84,823 – Gross Shorts: 213,004 389,654 50,310 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.2 67.9 31.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.1 -1.1 5.9   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -65,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,214 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -70,810 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.3 77.2 8.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.8 43.2 15.1 – Net Position: -65,596 81,063 -15,467 – Gross Longs: 29,343 184,011 20,625 – Gross Shorts: 94,939 102,948 36,092 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.7 77.6 23.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.9 -4.7 -0.5   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -69,755 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 21,891 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -91,646 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.0 75.6 9.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 44.0 38.4 16.8 – Net Position: -69,755 86,443 -16,688 – Gross Longs: 32,441 175,789 22,340 – Gross Shorts: 102,196 89,346 39,028 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 25.9 77.8 19.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 19.1 -16.5 5.7   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -6,808 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,324 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,132 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.9 66.2 22.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.2 20.1 51.7 – Net Position: -6,808 18,147 -11,339 – Gross Longs: 4,291 26,045 9,026 – Gross Shorts: 11,099 7,898 20,365 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 3.3 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.2 72.4 19.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 18.0 -19.8 17.9   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 23,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 24,264 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,062 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.3 45.1 16.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.0 62.4 12.7 – Net Position: 23,202 -30,284 7,082 – Gross Longs: 56,550 79,064 29,357 – Gross Shorts: 33,348 109,348 22,275 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.4 43.5 44.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.9 -14.4 6.3   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -43,254 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,642 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,896 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.2 59.9 14.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.4 28.6 16.0 – Net Position: -43,254 44,710 -1,456 – Gross Longs: 31,660 85,591 21,342 – Gross Shorts: 74,914 40,881 22,798 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.7 52.2 48.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.7 7.8 10.4   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -6,838 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,933 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,771 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.8 61.8 4.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 47.9 40.3 11.4 – Net Position: -6,838 9,773 -2,935 – Gross Longs: 14,894 28,062 2,236 – Gross Shorts: 21,732 18,289 5,171 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.8 45.5 18.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.4 -0.2 3.8   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -26,381 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -59,107 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,726 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 57.8 38.3 3.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 71.2 26.5 1.5 – Net Position: -26,381 23,148 3,233 – Gross Longs: 114,093 75,532 6,170 – Gross Shorts: 140,474 52,384 2,937 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.4 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.1 82.5 56.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.5 17.4 -2.9   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 47,213 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 508 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,705 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 83.0 12.5 4.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.5 81.8 2.8 – Net Position: 47,213 -48,458 1,245 – Gross Longs: 58,023 8,711 3,197 – Gross Shorts: 10,810 57,169 1,952 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.4 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 96.8 4.0 79.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.3 -5.0 -4.0   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,061 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 490 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 81.7 0.5 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 73.0 8.2 9.2 – Net Position: 1,061 -947 -114 – Gross Longs: 9,996 62 1,008 – Gross Shorts: 8,935 1,009 1,122 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 10.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.3 -30.9 -3.5   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
The Swing Overview – Week 24 2022

The Swing Overview – Week 24 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 17.06.2022 16:54
The Swing Overview - Week 24 We've had a week in which the world's major stock indices took a bloodbath in response to rising inflation, which is advancing faster than expected. Central banks have played a major part in this drama. As expected, the US, the UK and, surprisingly, Switzerland raised interest rates. Japan, on the other hand, is still one of the few countries that decided to keep interest rates at their original level of - 0.10%. Macroeconomic data The 0.75% interest rate hike to 1.75%, which was 0.25% higher than the Fed announced at the last meeting, might not have come as a surprise to the markets given that inflation for May was 8.6% on year-on-year basis (8.3% for April). The market reacted strongly in response to the inflation data, and a sell-off in equity indices and a strengthening US dollar followed.   The 0.75% rate hike is the highest since 1994 and the next Fed meeting is expected to see another rate hike again in the range of 0.50% to 0.75%. The Fed is trying to stop rising inflation with this aggressive approach. The problem is that economic projections point to slowing economic growth. Retail data for May fell by 0.3%, which was a surprise to the markets. This is the first drop in consumer spending in 2022. The Fed also lowered GDP growth projections and unemployment is expected to rise as well. All of this points to the risk of stagflation.     But the labour market data is still good. The number of initial claims in unemployment reached 229k last week, down from 232k the previous week. The US dollar hit a new high for the year at 105.86 in response to high inflation and a faster tightening economy. The US 10-year bond yields also rose, reaching 3.479%. Figure 1: The US 10-year bond yields and the USD index on the daily chart   The SP 500 Index The SP 500 index, like other global indices, was in a bloodbath last week as data on rising US inflation in particular surprised. Major supports according to the H4 chart were very quickly broken and the market is showing that it is still in a bearish mood. According to the daily chart, another lower low has formed which together with the lower highs confirms this bearish trend.   Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   A support according to the H4 chart is in the 3,645 - 3,675 range. The nearest resistance is at 3,820 - 3,835. A broken support in the 3,710 - 3,732 area can also be considered as resistance. The most important news is behind us and the market could take a breath for a while. The low levels could also be noticed by long-term investors who will be buying dip. But for speculators, it is very risky to speculate on a market reversal in a downtrend.   German DAX index The German DAX index offers a very similar picture to the SP 500. The ZEW economic sentiment indicator in Germany for the month of June showed a deterioration in sentiment among institutional investors and analysts, with the index reading coming in at -28.0. The ongoing war in Ukraine is undoubtedly influencing this pessimism. The end of this tragic event is still not in sight. What is clear, however, is that the longer the conflict continues, the stronger the impact on the European economy will be.    Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The DAX is in a clear downtrend and broke through significant support at 13,300 last week. The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is 13,250 - 13,300. Significant resistance is at 13,650 - 13,700. A new support according to the H4 chart is at 12,950 - 12,980.   The euro has rejected lower readings  Information about higher inflation in the US and a rate hike sent the EUR/USD pair to support levels at 1.0370. However, the level was not broken and the euro then took a strong move from this area. Investors seem to assume that the ECB will have to respond with a higher than 0.25% rate hike announced at the last meeting. Figure 4: The EUR/USD on H4 and daily chart According to the H4 chart, the nearest resistance is at 1.0560 - 1.0600. The next resistance is then at 1.0760-1.0770. Current support is at 1.0340 - 1.0370 according to the daily chart.   The Bank of England raised rates as expected Rising inflation did not leave the Bank of England in dovish mood as it raised its key rate by 0.25% as expected. The current rate is 1.25%. Inflation may be approaching double digits, but the bank could not afford to be more aggressive. In Britain, economic activity has already fallen and the GDP is falling at its fastest pace in a year. On a month-on-month basis, the GDP in Britain fell by 0.3%.  Manufacturing production fell by 1% in April. Figure 5: The GBP/USD on H4 and daily chart The GBP/USD currency pair had a very dramatic week, first breaking below 1.20, only to stage an unprecedented rally later. Anyway, according to the H4 chart and also the daily chart, the pound is below the SMA 100 moving average, which indicates a bearish sentiment. There are also clear lower lows and lower highs on the daily chart, confirming the downtrend.   The UK interest rate hike did send the GBP/USD currency pair to 1.24, but the price did not stay there for long time as the pound descended from higher values, underlining the overall downtrend. The nearest resistance is at 1.24. A support is then at 1.1930 - 1.2000.   Central Bank of Japan still dovish   In the early hours of Friday morning, the Bank of Japan was also deciding on rates. There, as expected, everything remains as it was, i.e. the rate remains negative at - 0.10%. This situation means a favourable interest rate differential between the US dollar and the Japanese yen in favour of the dollar. It is therefore no surprise that the USD/JPY pair has reached its highest level since 2002. However, the weak yen is a big problem for the Japanese economy, as it makes imports of basic manufacturing raw materials more expensive and thus contributes to inflation. Figure 6: The USD/JPY on H4 and monthly charts The USD/JPY pair has reached the resistance level at 134.5 - 135.0, the highest level since 2002. A support according to the H4 chart is at 131.50 - 131.80.  
COT Week 25 Charts: Stock Market Speculator bets mostly lower led by S&P500 Mini & Russell 2000

COT Week 25 Charts: Stock Market Speculator bets mostly lower led by S&P500 Mini & Russell 2000

Invest Macro Invest Macro 25.06.2022 14:28
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. The stock market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as three out of the eight stock markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for stock markets was VIX (24,255 contracts) with the Nasdaq Mini (2,404 contracts) and Nikkei 225 USD (821 contracts) also showing a positive weeks. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were S&P500 Mini (-148,597 contracts) and with Russell 2000 Mini (-10,350 contracts), Nikkei 225 Yen (-5,996 contracts), MSCI EAFE Mini (-4,840 contracts) and Dow Jones Industrial Average Mini (-3,184 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.   Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Nasdaq Mini and the VIX are both in extreme bullish levels (above 80 percent). The Nikkei Stock Average is also above the midpoint of the past 3-year with a 69.9 percent score for a bullish reading. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the S&P 500 Mini and the Russell 200 Mini are leading the downside trends with -43.7 percent and -21.9 percent, respectively. The Nasdaq Mini and the Nikkei 225 Yen are the only markets with positive six week trends.   Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-21-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index S&P500-Mini 2,262,004 6 -114,319 35 144,197 92 -29,878 20 Nikkei 225 12,380 5 -1,592 70 2,139 40 -547 21 Nasdaq-Mini 236,624 34 30,806 92 -27,586 10 -3,220 42 DowJones-Mini 69,024 26 -25,473 4 28,937 98 -3,464 20 VIX 257,930 15 -49,923 84 55,730 16 -5,807 63 Nikkei 225 Yen 51,198 30 -3,047 25 25,170 88 -22,123 29   VIX Volatility Futures: The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -49,923 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 24,255 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,178 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent. VIX Volatility Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.2 53.8 8.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.6 32.2 10.7 – Net Position: -49,923 55,730 -5,807 – Gross Longs: 46,982 138,746 21,718 – Gross Shorts: 96,905 83,016 27,525 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 84.2 16.2 63.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.0 -1.8 27.4   S&P500 Mini Futures: The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -114,319 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -148,597 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,278 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent. S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.1 75.7 9.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.2 69.4 11.3 – Net Position: -114,319 144,197 -29,878 – Gross Longs: 273,629 1,713,053 224,849 – Gross Shorts: 387,948 1,568,856 254,727 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 35.0 91.7 20.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -43.7 46.8 -5.2   Dow Jones Mini Futures: The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -25,473 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,184 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,289 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent. Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.9 69.8 15.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.8 27.9 20.1 – Net Position: -25,473 28,937 -3,464 – Gross Longs: 10,310 48,166 10,418 – Gross Shorts: 35,783 19,229 13,882 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 4.1 98.0 19.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.9 6.6 -16.3   Nasdaq Mini Futures: The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 30,806 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,404 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,402 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.0 46.9 16.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.0 58.5 17.7 – Net Position: 30,806 -27,586 -3,220 – Gross Longs: 82,888 110,913 38,577 – Gross Shorts: 52,082 138,499 41,797 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 92.2 9.5 41.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.7 -12.0 4.4   Russell 2000 Mini Futures: The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -105,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -10,350 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -95,246 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.1 88.3 3.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.6 69.3 3.7 – Net Position: -105,596 107,890 -2,294 – Gross Longs: 40,382 502,812 19,004 – Gross Shorts: 145,978 394,922 21,298 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 20.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -21.9 18.9 8.0   Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures: The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 821 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,413 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent. Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.3 56.8 17.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.1 39.5 22.1 – Net Position: -1,592 2,139 -547 – Gross Longs: 3,130 7,026 2,194 – Gross Shorts: 4,722 4,887 2,741 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.9 40.3 21.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.6 14.0 14.3   MSCI EAFE Mini Futures: The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 196 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,840 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,036 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent. MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.9 92.7 1.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.8 93.2 1.2 – Net Position: 196 -2,076 1,880 – Gross Longs: 18,931 358,172 6,538 – Gross Shorts: 18,735 360,248 4,658 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 24.1 77.7 35.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.1 7.7 -3.4   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Week 25 Charts: Energy Speculator bets on defensive led by WTI Crude Oil & Natural Gas

COT Week 25 Charts: Energy Speculator bets on defensive led by WTI Crude Oil & Natural Gas

Invest Macro Invest Macro 25.06.2022 14:35
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Energy markets speculator bets were lower on the week as just two out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while four markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for energy markets was Heating Oil (1,089 contracts) with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (259 contracts) also showing a small positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week was WTI Crude Oil (-13,444 contracts) with Natural Gas (-7,384 contracts), Brent Crude Oil (-1,621 contracts) and Gasoline (-49 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index and the Heating Oil are both in bullish levels at the moment. All other energy markets are below the midpoint of the past 3-years and have bearish or extreme bearish readings. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the Bloomberg Commodity Index and the Heating Oil are again leading the six week trends with 19.9 percent and 20.8 percent, respectively. Brent Oil leads the downside trends with -11.4 percent over the past six weeks.   Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-21-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,658,636 0 289,502 0 -323,915 100 34,413 64 Gold 500,276 14 163,287 4 -186,929 96 23,642 14 Silver 145,356 12 18,419 7 -27,250 93 8,831 4 Copper 187,170 17 -20,938 27 18,928 72 2,010 37 Palladium 7,641 6 -4,046 0 4,511 100 -465 17 Platinum 64,946 30 1,491 6 -6,397 96 4,906 30 Natural Gas 1,030,971 0 -130,869 39 85,977 58 44,892 86 Brent 173,098 18 -38,010 47 36,052 53 1,958 36 Heating Oil 268,818 23 9,564 56 -28,204 41 18,640 63 Soybeans 745,494 32 178,379 68 -152,968 38 -25,411 28 Corn 1,512,152 23 380,169 79 -326,474 25 -53,695 12 Coffee 192,832 0 49,371 81 -52,348 22 2,977 20 Sugar 779,773 0 163,111 70 -181,280 34 18,169 30 Wheat 320,326 6 19,067 44 -15,407 38 -3,660 91   WTI Crude Oil Futures: The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 289,502 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -13,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 302,946 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent. WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.4 35.9 5.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.0 55.4 3.2 – Net Position: 289,502 -323,915 34,413 – Gross Longs: 388,496 594,860 86,668 – Gross Shorts: 98,994 918,775 52,255 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 63.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.1 10.7 -13.1   Brent Crude Oil Futures: The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -38,010 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,389 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent. Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.2 51.5 4.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.1 30.7 2.8 – Net Position: -38,010 36,052 1,958 – Gross Longs: 26,225 89,195 6,865 – Gross Shorts: 64,235 53,143 4,907 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.7 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.4 53.2 35.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -11.4 9.1 17.7   Natural Gas Futures: The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -130,869 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,384 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -123,485 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent. Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.7 39.8 7.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.4 31.5 2.7 – Net Position: -130,869 85,977 44,892 – Gross Longs: 213,487 410,457 72,315 – Gross Shorts: 344,356 324,480 27,423 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 2.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.3 58.0 86.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.5 7.0 -8.6   Gasoline Blendstock Futures: The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 31,407 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -49 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,456 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent. Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.3 54.3 7.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.8 68.3 4.3 – Net Position: 31,407 -42,080 10,673 – Gross Longs: 75,835 162,816 23,491 – Gross Shorts: 44,428 204,896 12,818 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.1 95.0 83.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.0 2.0 -13.5   #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures: The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 9,564 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,089 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,475 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent. Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.1 51.0 16.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.5 61.5 9.8 – Net Position: 9,564 -28,204 18,640 – Gross Longs: 45,955 137,166 44,894 – Gross Shorts: 36,391 165,370 26,254 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.5 41.2 62.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.8 -12.7 -7.7   Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures: The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -8,052 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 259 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,311 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent. Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.8 69.5 0.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.1 57.5 0.2 – Net Position: -8,052 7,764 288 – Gross Longs: 17,434 45,267 447 – Gross Shorts: 25,486 37,503 159 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.7 23.2 29.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 19.9 -18.8 -11.7   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Week 25 Charts: Soft Commodity Speculator bets slightly lower led by Corn & Sugar

COT Week 25 Charts: Soft Commodity Speculator bets slightly lower led by Corn & Sugar

Invest Macro Invest Macro 25.06.2022 15:28
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. The soft commodities market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as six out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while five markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Live Cattle (7,378 contracts) and Cocoa (6,674 contracts) with Soybean Meal (6,540 contracts), Lean Hogs (4,673 contracts) and Coffee (2,486 contracts) also showing positive speculator contract changes for the week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-19,606 contracts) and Sugar (-7,372 contracts) with Soybean Oil (-5,868 contracts), Soybeans (-4,288 contracts), Wheat (-1,368 contracts) and Cotton (-210 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Coffee (81 percent) and Soybean Meal (80.6 percent) are in extreme bullish positions as of the latest data release. On the downside for strength scores is Lean Hogs (19.9