high

Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has been seen bouncing from the local low made at the level of 1.0675 and so far the high of the bounce was made at the level of 1.0732. The intraday technical resistance is seen at 1.0780, so bulls need to break out above this level in order to continue higher. Any breakout below the level of 1.0675 would sustain the bearish outlook and put the level of 1.0636 for a test (swing low). The weak and negative momentum supports the short-term bearish outlook for EUR as the bulls are not able to move above the neutral level of fifty on the RSI indicator.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.07335 WR2 - 1.07121 WR1 - 1.06983 Weekly Pivot - 1.06907 WS1 - 1.06769 WS2 - 1.06693 WS3 - 1.06479   Trading Outlook: Since the beginning of October 2022 the EUR/USD is in the corrective cycle to the upside, but the main, long-term trend remains bearish. This corrective cycle might had been terminated at the level of 1.2080 which is 61% Fibonacci retracement level. The EUR had made a new multi-decade low at the level of 0.9538, so as long as the USD is being bought all across the board, the down trend will continue towards the new lows.  

1H chart of GBP/USD In the 1-hour time frame, the pair started an upward movement and just as quickly ended it. The market insists on buying the pound, which remains significantly overbought and unjustifiably high. However, take note that the market has the right to trade regardless of the fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop. For now, we will consider the strong correction that we've seen last week and expect a revival of the downward movement.   On June 7, trading levels are seen at 1.2269, 1.2349, 1.2429-1.2445, 1.2520, 1.2589, 1.2666, 1.2762. The Senkou Span B line (1.2395) and the Kijun-sen line (1.2455) lines may also generate signals when the price either breaks or bounces off them. A Stop Loss should be placed at the breakeven point when the price goes 20 pips in the right direction. Ichimoku indicator lines can move intraday, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also support and resistance which can be used for locking in profits. On Wednesday, there are no important events scheduled in either the UK or the US. Therefore, there will be no specific events to react to during the day, and volatility could be low again, and we can't expect trend-driven movements either.     Indicators on charts: Resistance/support - thick red lines, near which the trend may stop. They do not make trading signals. The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the Ichimoku indicator lines moved to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are also strong lines. Extreme levels are thin red lines, from which the price used to bounce earlier. They can produce trading signals. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT chart is the size of the net position of each trader category. Indicator 2 on the COT chart is the size of the net position for the Non-commercial group of traders.  

Bank of England rate decision – 22/06 – this week's central bank rate decision is likely to see the implementation of at least another rate 25bps rate hike from Bank of England policymakers, with the usual suspects of Tenreyro and Dhingra expected to dissent once more, despite UK core inflation surging in April to 6.8% and its highest level since the early 1990's.    With this being Tenreyro's last meeting, she is being replaced by Megan Greene next month, the dissent on the MPC is likely to be much less over the coming months. With average wages surging by 7.2% in the 3-months to April, we saw yet another blow to the central bank's tattered credibility, prompting concern that the MPC might have a lot more to do on the rate front in the coming months.   The current terminal rate being priced by markets is for the UK base rate to top out at 5.75%, 125bps higher from where we are now, after the April wages and unemployment data. While that is probably overpriced, the fact we are at these levels is further evidence of the Bank of England's failure on the policy front. The day before this week's decision we will be getting the latest inflation numbers for May which are expected to show headline inflation decline further from the 8.7% we saw in the April numbers. While this was the lowest level since March last year, it remains painfully high when compared to the likes of the US and in Europe.   Core prices are also higher, as wages continue to exert upward pressure on service cost inflation. For months now Bank of England policymakers have consistently underestimated the persistence of current inflationary trends, consistently hiding behind the Russian invasion of Ukraine, even as commodity prices have fallen well below the levels they rose to in the aftermath of that invasion.   While they are not completely to blame, they have made any number of mistakes, which they seem incapable of acknowledging. Offering mea-culpas appears to be beyond them, with officials showing little indication that they would have done anything different. This is especially worrying given that an acceptance that they might have got things wrong might require some introspection with a view to making changes to ensure a better outcome the next time. If a central bank can't acknowledge its mistakes, how can it learn from them and do things better the next time. 

Bitcoin's over 24% increase in just 6 days is due to several significant events. Deutsche Bank's search for a crypto-license and the race to create a Bitcoin ETF fund are the main reasons why BTC began to climb again towards 30,000. USD. On June 15, BlackRock filed a Bitcoin Spot ETF application with the SEC, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. Yes, to the same SEC that is pursuing cryptocurrency exchanges such as Binance or Coinbase.   It is worth noting that the SEC has definitively rejected such applications in the past, however, the latest attempt was made by the largest player in the asset management market. In reaction to these events, Invesco applied for the creation of such a fund many times in the past. The third applicant turned out to be WisdomTree, which also intends to apply for the creation of a cryptocurrency exchange fund ETF in the United States. An interesting event in the context of the increase in the value of Bitcoin is also WallStreet's support for new digital asset platforms - EDX Markets. Although there is still a long way to ATH, interest in the oldest cryptocurrency is still very high. The actions of the SEC did not scare off investors, which could have been suggested by the record transfer of BTC from crypto-miners.   Technical Market Outlook: The BTC/USD pair has been seen rallying over 24% from the low made at the level of $24,753, so the last local high made at the level of $30,777. The bulls had broken above the technical resistance located at $28,446 and now this level will work as the technical support. The market conditions are extremely overbought on the H4 time frame chart and on a Daily time frame chart. The next target for bulls is still seen at the level of $32,350.  

Litecoin ended its sell-off and now is trading at 84.27 far above yesterday's low of 81.77. Bitcoin's current growth helped the altcoin to rebound as well. It has increased by 3.23% from yesterday's low to 84.41 today's high. Despite the current rebound, LTC/USD is still down by 1.86% in the last 24 hours and by 3.19% in the last 7 days. The buyers are still in the game but a larger growth is still far from being confirmed. LTC/USD Uptrend Intact!   As you can see on the H4 chart, the rate dropped within a down channel. This could represent a bullish formation. The altcoin turned to the upside again after retesting the uptrend line. The false breakdowns announced that the sell-off could be over. The weekly pivot point of 85.93 and the downtrend line represent upside obstacles and immediate targets.   LTC/USD Outlook! A valid breakout above the downtrend line may announce a larger growth and is seen as a buying opportunity.    

European stocks are ending the week on a high, buoyed by another encouraging inflation report that will soon support the end of the ECBs tightening cycle. Not only did the headline HICP rate fall further than expected, but the slight rebound at the core level – driven largely by unfavourable base effects, largely attributed to German transport subsidies last year – was lower than expected.   ECB policymakers will not get complacent on the back of today’s data but with inflation expected to fall further in the months ahead, core included later in the third quarter, we could well see a pause in rate hikes before the fourth quarter. This may enable the soft landing policymakers have been hoping for, with very shallow recessions a small cost to pay for price stability. ​ The unemployment rate staying at 6.5% as the number of unemployed fell slightly will keep ECB hawks on edge for signs of labour market tightness driving sustained excessive wage growth, but those fears should also subside over the coming months. A rate hike in July looks highly likely on the back of recent ECB comments, particularly those after the meeting this month, but beyond that investors aren’t convinced thinking another is more likely than not but by no means guaranteed.   Bitcoin steady after ETF surge Bitcoin is back in the green today but remains in the $30,000-$31,000 range it’s traded largely within over the last week. The ETF filings have given it some very positive momentum even with SEC lawsuits hanging over the industry. A break above $31,000 could see it accelerate higher once more with $32,500 potentially offering the next test.  

AUD/USD rallied by 97 pips from last Thursday, 29 June low of 0.6593. Staged a minor bullish breakout ahead of RBA’s monetary policy decision today. Watch 0.6630 key short-term support to maintain the current bullish tone. Since its 0.6593 minor low printed last Thursday, 29 June, the AUD/USD has managed to stage a rebound of 97 pips to print an intraday high of 0.6692 yesterday, 3 July ahead of Australia central bank, RBA’s monetary policy decision out later today at 0430 GMT. The interest rates futures market has implied a reduction in the odds of a 25 basis points (bps) hike due to the recent softer-than-expected annualized monthly CPI data for May; 5.6% from 6.8% in April and below expectations of 6.1%. As of 3 July 2023, the ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures has priced in a 16% chance of a 25 bps hike on the cash rate, down from a 53% chance that was priced two weeks ago on 16 June.     Fig 1: AUD/USD short-term trend as of 4 Jul 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) Minor bullish breakout The AUD/USD has managed to exit from the upper limit of a minor descending channel that was in place since its 16 June 2023 high of 0.6900 now acting as a pull-back support at 0.6630. This latest set of price actions has indicated that the minor downtrend phase from the 16 June 2023 high of 0.6900 to the 29 June 2023 low of 0.6593 is likely to have ended.     Short-term positive momentum has resurfaced The hourly RSI oscillator has just broken above a corresponding resistance at the 47 level after it exited from its oversold region last Thursday 29 June. Watch the 0.6690 short-term pivotal support (the pull-back of the former minor descending channel resistance & former minor swing high area of 29/30 June 2023) and clearance above 0.6790 (20-day moving average) sees the next resistance coming in at 0.6790. However, failure to hold above 0.6630 negates the bullish tone to expose the 0.6580/6550 key medium-term pivotal support zone.    

USD/JPY Yesterday, the USD/JPY pair broke above the resistance level of 145.90. The 147.95 level is just ahead – an embedded line of the global price channel, and slightly above it is the target level of 148.50. However, the Marlin oscillator is turning downwards on the daily chart, which could indicate that the bearish correction has not yet ended.     The nearest support for this correction is the 144.73 mark, which the MACD line (blue moving average) is approaching. If the price consolidates below the level of 144.73, it may fall to 142.82. This morning, the price was unable to overcome the resistance of the MACD line on the four-hour chart. The signal line of the oscillator is returning to the area of negative values.     The first condition for restoring the correction is the price consolidating below the level of 145.90 on this chart. The first sign of succeeding growth will be the price consolidating above yesterday's high, which will automatically turn into a consolidation above the MACD line