H1

Higher timeframes Last week, the pair closed with a candle of uncertainty, returning to the area of attraction and influence of the daily short-term trend (1.0719) and the final level of the weekly golden cross of the Ichimoku, which is currently at 1.0717. Consolidation below these levels and a breakdown of the zone of the daily upward correction (1.0636) will bring back the downward trend and bearish targets to the market.       The nearest prospects for strengthening bearish sentiment in the current situation can be noted in the support zone of 1.0579 - 1.0557 - 1.0515 - 1.0497 (monthly Fibonacci Kijun + weekly Senkou Span B + downside target for breaking the daily cloud). If buyers return to the market, attention will be focused on bullish targets, which are still located in the area of the daily cloud. The resistance levels of the daily (1.0810 - 1.0864 - 1.0918) and weekly (1.0789 - 1.0862 - 1.0866) Ichimoku crosses, as well as the daily cloud (1.0806 - 1.0956) and the monthly medium-term trend (1.0901), currently serve as bullish benchmarks.     H4 - H1 On lower timeframes, buyers currently have the upper hand. They have established themselves above key levels, turning them into supports in case of a correction. The key levels are currently located at 1.0731-18 (central pivot point + weekly long-term trend). If the ascent continues within the day, resistance from the classic pivot points R2 (1.0806) and R3 (1.0831) may come into play.     Higher timeframes Last week, buyers tested important levels, such as the weekly short-term trend (1.2492) and the final levels of the daily death cross of the Ichimoku (1.2492 - 1.2536), but were unable to close the week above them. With the start of a new trading week, these levels have maintained their positions and continue to be the nearest significant benchmarks for the emergence of new bullish prospects. The location of the most important support levels for the bears on this segment has not changed either. The support zone is quite wide and includes the levels of the weekly Ichimoku cross (1.2343 - 1.2240 - 1.2137) and the monthly medium-term trend (1.2302).     H4 - H1 On lower timeframes, the pair tested the strength of the weekly long-term trend (1.2428) and consolidated below it. The next targets for a decline are now the supports of the classic pivot points S2 (1.2373) and S3 (1.2307). Consolidation above the key levels of 1.2428 - 1.2476 (weekly long-term trend + central pivot point) will bring back the buyers. The next bullish targets within the day will be the resistances of the classic pivot points (1.2513 - 1.2579 - 1.2616).     The technical analysis of the situation uses: Higher timeframes - Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) + Fibo Kijun levels Lower timeframes - H1 - Pivot Points (classic) + Moving Average 120 (weekly long-term trend)      

EUR/USD: H4 - H1 On the lower timeframes, the advantage has again shifted in favor of the bears. However, the bulls are currently rising to retest the key levels of 1.0925-27 (central pivot point of the day + weekly long-term trend) in order to once again question the prevailing advantage.   Classic pivot points may have significance for intraday work, which today are at the following levels: 1.0886 - 1.0859 - 1.0820 (supports) and 1.0952 - 1.0991 - 1.1018 (resistances).    

EUR/USD Higher timeframes Bulls continue to rise, but failed to close above the high of the daily correction (1.1012) yesterday. This mark and the next high of the weekly correction (1.1096) remain the main targets of the current upward movement. The nearest supports of the higher timeframes today are 1.0936 (daily short-term trend) and 1.0901 (monthly medium-term trend).       H4 - H1 On lower timeframes, the main advantage now belongs to the bulls. As of writing, they are testing the first resistance of the classic pivot points (1.1031), and further targets for an intraday rise are R2 (1.1053) and R3 (1.1080). The key levels today serve as supports and are located at 1.1004 (central pivot point) and 1.0939 (weekly long-term trend); intermediate supports are S1 (1.0982) and S2 (1.0955). The weekly long-term trend (1.0939) is currently reinforced by the daily short-term trend (1.0936), so a consolidation below will help change the current balance of power not only on lower timeframes but also on the daily timeframe.

GBP/USD Higher timeframes Yesterday, on the daily chart, the pound crossed the lower border of the monthly cloud (1.2893). This is an important monthly level, so it may yet have its influence and, thanks to the force of attraction, delay the continuation of the rise. If the bulls maintain activity, the upper border of the monthly cloud (1.3142) serves as their next target in this area.     H4 - H1 On lower timeframes, the bulls are developing an upward trend movement, having a clear advantage. It should be noted that during trend movement, corrective declines are as natural as rises. At the moment, we observe a corrective slowdown around 1.2957 (first resistance of the classic pivot points). Further upward targets within the day are R2 (1.2986) and R3 (1.3038). In case the current correction deepens, the chart on lower timeframes suggests the following levels as supports today: 1.2905 (central pivot point) - 1.2876 (S1) - 1.2824 (S2) - 1.2806 (weekly long-term trend). *** The technical analysis of the situation uses: Higher timeframes - Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) + Fibo Kijun levels Lower timeframes - H1 - Pivot Points (classic) + Moving Average 120 (weekly long-term trend)    

EUR/USD   Higher Timeframes The encounter with the zone 1.0862–1.0868, which merged several strong resistances, did not go unnoticed. As a result, yesterday, we observed a slowdown and some bearish activity. The upcoming days will determine the outcome of the encounter. Bearish activity and a decline will draw the market's attention to the supports accumulated at 1.0756-1.0766 (weekly and daily levels), while overcoming 1.0862-68 will pave the way to the final resistance of the weekly death cross (1.0960) and the daily target for breaking through the Ichimoku cloud (1.1004-1.1065).     H4 - H1 On the lower timeframes, there is a corrective decline, but bulls maintain a general advantage. At the moment, the reference points for the resumption of the ascent could be 1.0855-1.0879-1.0910-1.0934 (classic pivot points). Strengthening bearish sentiments today may occur through breaking the supports at 1.0824-1.0800-1.0769 (classic pivot points). To change the current advantage to the bears' side, it is necessary to break and reverse the moving average—the weekly long-term trend, which, in the current situation, is at 1.0745.   Higher Timeframes As of yesterday, the pound can boast more impressive results than the euro. The market failed to overcome the accumulation of strong resistances, such as the weekly Fibonacci Kijun (1.2458), the monthly short-term trend (1.2471), and the monthly Fibonacci Kijun (1.2505). If bears continue to recover their positions, there is a broad support zone on this part of the market, consisting of levels from various timeframes and located at 1.2346-1.2325-1.2287-1.2248-1.2231.     H4 - H1 Bulls failed to update the previous day's high and continue the ascent, while the opponent, developing the decline, has now consolidated below the central pivot point of the day (1.2437). The continuation of the descent now lies through testing and breaking the supports at 1.2376-1.2341 (classic pivot points). A shift in the main advantage and the current sentiment is possible after testing, overcoming, and reversing the weekly long-term trend (1.2315). *  

easyJet narrows Q1 losses, and maintains full year guidance   The welcome return of the dividend back in November when easyJet reported its full year numbers appears to have been the catalyst for some solid share price gains with the shares retesting their 2023 highs earlier this month, having fallen to 10-month lows back in October. While this is welcome it's hard to ignore the fact that the easyJet share price has struggled to get anywhere near the highs we saw in 2021 which then saw a decline to ten-year lows in 2022. In fact, the current rebound still has us well below the 2022 peaks in a sign that while the recovery in the share price is welcome the shares have lagged well behind the likes of Ryanair whose shares have recovered all their post pandemic declines and managed to post new record highs at the end of last year.  With the shares over 50% below their pre-pandemic peaks and the fact that easyJet returned to profit last year due to a decent performance in H2 there is certainly scope for further share price gains if the progress made last year is carried over into 2024. Today's Q1 trading update has seen easyJet report a headline loss before tax of £126m which is a modest improvement on the £133m loss a year ago. The number of passengers saw an increase of 14% over the period with revenue per seat rising 3%. Total revenue saw a 22% increase to £1.8bn with strong growth in ancillaries of 20%, while holidays revenue jumped 95% to £181m, although total costs per seat rose by 2% to £77.2m    easyJet holidays has been the standout performer here managing to more than double its profits to £30m from £13m. While this is welcome the improvement here serves to mask a bigger loss in the rest of the business. In its defence the airline can argue that the conflict in the Middle East hasn't helped given that bookings in the region have fallen off, along with the various flight suspensions, which has meant that revenues here have declined even if costs haven't. Like last year easyJet appears to be banking on a similar strong H2 to offset the impact of a loss-making H1 with the number of seats expected to grow sharply from 42m in H1 to 59m seats in H2 Early indications suggest that the airline is on course to do this saying it expects its H1 loss to improve, despite the £40m impact caused by disruption due to tensions in the Middle East. It is clear from today's numbers that were it not for the easyJet holidays business which is going from strength to strength that it might struggle to match the profitability we saw last year when the airline returned a total profit after tax of £324m.  easyJet maintained its guidance of 35% growth in its holidays business in 2024 which would take its UK market share to 7%. This has helped to push the shares to their highest levels since June 2022 in early trade.  Also, on a brighter note revenue per seat for the second half of 2024 is currently ahead of last year's levels, which means that while the airline is heading in the right direction albeit with a bit of turbulence, it still has some way to go to match the performance in Ryanair, which is way ahead in terms of revenues and profitability.  By Michael Hewson (Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK)