Governor Kazuo Ueda

Asia week ahead: BoJ meeting plus retail sales from China The Bank of Japan meets next week but don’t expect any changes. China has a raft of data but we’ll be particularly focused on retail sales.   BoJ policy meeting but don't expect any changes at this meeting We have changed our view on the Bank of Japan’s policy in the near term based on Governor Kazuo Ueda’s recent dovish comments. We expect the BoJ to keep all its current policy settings unchanged at its policy meeting next week. Likewise, a potential tweak in the BoJ’s yield curve control policy is not likely to happen this month. However, should inflation remain at current levels in the second half of the year, we could still see a possible adjustment in the YCC policy over the next few months.   Retail sales in China to be in focus China will release the usual raft of data on economic activity for May. This will include industrial production, fixed asset investment, construction, and retail sales. Of these, most attention will probably be on the retail sales number, as consumer spending is what is keeping the economy afloat while production and construction both struggle amidst a tough global trade environment.   But the news on retail sales will probably not be very encouraging. We anticipate a 13.8% year-on-year increase in retail sales, which only looks this strong due to a very weak base comparison period, and is equivalent to around a 1% month-on-month decrease in sales adjusted for seasonality. Residential construction is likely to remain depressed, as is production.

JPY: BoJ keeps the yen on the backfoot Last night's Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting produced few fireworks, with the BoJ leaving all its policy levers and its statement unchanged. This has allowed the Japanese yen to remain the prime victim of higher US interest rates – with USD/JPY now pushing through 141.00. We are currently listening to Governor Kazuo Ueda's press briefing and we think there is a chance that the BoJ does tweak its policy set-up at the 28 July policy meeting, when new forecasts will be released. Until that point, however, USD/JPY may well still bid and should remain in the lead should any US data surprise on the upside. Equally, the yen will lag – and will continue to decline on the cross rates – if this current period of dollar weakness does extend after all.

Despite the fact that the European Central Bank has much more reasons to consider lowering interest rates compared to the Federal Reserve, the ECB not only raised the refinancing rate but Lagarde practically stated that there would be another rate hike in July. This decision not only contradicts expectations but also goes against common sense to some extent. Of course, this resulted in the dollar's decline, thereby reducing the pressure caused by its apparent overbought condition. However, the European economy is facing serious difficulties associated with the increased cost of energy resources.   The European industry suffers the most. Many, including in the West, are already openly calling what is happening the deindustrialization of Europe. And a strong dollar may somewhat alleviate this negative trend. So, the decisions and intentions of the ECB are more harmful than beneficial to the European economy. Especially considering that inflation in the euro area is slowing down as fast as in the United States. Today's inflation report should confirm the fact of its slowdown from 7.0% to 6.1%. And don't think that the ECB was unaware of this yesterday because we are talking about final data.   The preliminary assessment was already available two weeks ago. In such a situation, the most reasonable approach would have been not to touch interest rates and observe the developments for at least two or three months.   Frankly speaking, the ECB's actions are raising more and more questions. And this naturally leads to an increase in concerns, which are usually referred to as uncertainty risks. Investors typically try to stay away from such risks. Therefore, the euro's substantial growth, which pulled the pound along, is likely to be unsustainable and probably won't last long. The GBP/USD pair has surged in value by nearly 300 pips since the beginning of the trading week.     This movement has resulted in the extension of the medium-term uptrend. Take note that such an intense price change has triggered a technical signal of the pound's overbought conditions. On the four-hour chart, the RSI is at its highest level since autumn 2022, indicating a technical signal of overbought conditions.   On the same timeframe the Alligator's MAs are headed upwards, which points to an upward cycle. Outlook In this case, speculators are disregarding the overbought status, as evidenced by the sustained momentum and the absence of a proper correction. However, this process cannot persist indefinitely, and sooner or later, there will be a liquidation of long positions, leading to a pullback. Until then, traders will consider the psychological level of 1.3000 as the main resistance level.  

JPY: Any surprises, Mr. Ueda? A packed agenda of central bank speakers in Sintra today includes Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, who will join the policy panel with Lagarde, Powell and Bailey. The speech will come at a time when the market’s focus on the yen is on the rise again: USD/JPY traded above 144.00 yesterday, and is rapidly approaching the 145 area which is seen as a potential line in the sand for FX intervention by Japanese authorities. Overnight, Japan’s top currency official, Masato Kanda, stepped in with a verbal “protest”, saying that authorities are ready to intervene if there are excessive FX moves, but USD/JPY is facing fresh upward pressure this morning and today, hawkish comments by Powell, backed by the solid US data seen so far this week, could easily take the pair closer to 145.00. There is a possibility that Ueda will use Sintra as a stage to try and offer some verbal support to the yen, although the sustainability of that as a supporting narrative for the yen is up for debate. Any hawkish tilt in Ueda’s resolutely loose policy stance would surely have a more far-reaching impact on the currency: we do not exclude that this could happen at the July BoJ meeting, but is Ueda ready to tweak his narrative today? The probability is arguably pretty low, but with very little priced in, the bar for any hawkish surprise is also quite low.

The Japanese yen continues to lose ground on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 147.26, up 0.50%. The yen broke above the 147 level for the first time since November 2022.   Tokyo says battle with inflation has reached turning point Just a few days after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda’s speech at the Jackson Hole summit, the Japanese government released a potentially significant white paper. To say that the two events were contradictory might be a stretch, but they appeared to present a very different stance towards inflation. At Jackson Hole, Ueda stuck to the BoJ’s well-worn script that underlying inflation remains lower than the BoJ’s target of 2%. As a result, the BoJ has insisted it will stick with the current ultra-easy policy until there is evidence that inflation remains sustainably above target. The white paper sounded a different tone, noting that “Japan has seen price and wage rises broaden since the spring of 2022. Such changes suggest the economy is reaching a turning point in its 25-year battle with deflation” and “a window of opportunity may be opening to exit deflation.” Could this be a turning point that leads to a tightening in policy? The government hasn’t acknowledged that deflation is over, despite the fact that core inflation has remained above the 2% target for 16 successive months. Wages are also on the rise after companies significantly bumped up employee wages earlier in the year. The white paper spoke of the need to “eradicate the sticky deflationary mindset besetting households and companies”, but I wonder if the BoJ also suffers from the same mindset, even with inflation remaining above target month after month. Investors should remain on guard for a shift in central bank policy, especially if the yen continues to head towards the key 150 level.     USD/JPY Technical There is resistance at 147.19 and 147.95 146.30 and 145.10 are providing support        

In an interview with the Yomiuri, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that the central bank could have enough information and data by the end of the year to judge whether wages will continue to rise at a pace that is necessary to achieve the 2% price stability target. However, back in April, Governor Ueda indicated that next year’s annual wage bargaining will likely become a key factor in deciding the future of monetary policy but the BoJ could make a decision on whether the 2% inflation target accompanied by wage growth is achievable at an earlier point depending on the data that becomes available beforehand. The governor’s latest remark is a repeat of his previous comments saying the central bank is of the view that it is ready to normalise its policies once conditions are satisfactory for such moves. Instead, the latest comment was likely made to combat speculative moves in the FX market, which could act as a hindrance to monetary policy. As long as markets are pricing in a Fed rate cut sometime next year, the BoJ will likely continue with the current monetary easing policies. We continue to expect that the BoJ will likely start the normalisation process by exiting from the YCC framework in CY25, once the global economy enters the next cyclical recovery. The BoJ will likely remain cautious of any major policy changes as long as the central bank maintains that “there are extremely high uncertainties for Japan's economic activity” and to not repeat past mistakes of premature policy tightening, especially as the government is maintaining a strong commitment to the Abenomics policy framework to pull Japan completely out of deflation. On the other hand, the risk scenario is if the global economy remains resilient and markets stop pricing policy rate cuts by key central banks next year, the BoJ could start the normalisation process in CY24 under the judgement that the global economy will remain strong.   In an interview with the Yomiuri, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that the central bank could have enough information and data by year-end to judge whether wages will continue to rise at a pace that is necessary to achieve the 2% price stability target. Markets reacted to the interview as a hint that the central bank could start the normalisation process much earlier than previously anticipated.   However, Governor Ueda has made similar remarks before, and the latest comment is likely not a change in the central bank’s or the governor’s views. Back in April, Governor Ueda indicated during his press conference that next year’s annual wage bargaining will likely become a key factor in deciding the future of monetary policy, but the BoJ could make a decision on whether the 2% inflation target accompanied by wage growth is achievable at an earlier point depending on the data that becomes available beforehand.   The governor’s latest remark is a repeat of his previous comments saying the central bank is of the view that it is ready to normalise its policies once conditions are satisfactory for such moves. The remark was likely made to combat speculative moves in the FX market, which could act as a hindrance to monetary policy. In other words, the governor’s statement is likely similar to those typically made by the Minister of Finance and other MoF officials where they issue warnings on volatility in the FX market verbally but do not implement any actual intervention moves.

JPY: BoJ officials push back on the market's hawkish interpretation A media report this morning suggests that Bank of Japan officials saw a discrepancy between what Governor Kazuo Ueda stated in a recent interview about the timing of adjusting monetary policy and what markets interpreted. For some background, we discussed Ueda’s comments in Monday’s FX Daily: he had hinted at earlier-than-anticipated timing (year-end) for the BoJ to have enough evidence on wages to decide on a potential monetary policy shift. The actual tone of the interview was quite cautious, but a market that has been on its toes for any hawkish sign understandably overreacted to the remarks. USD/JPY is also in the FX intervention area. While the rate of change has probably not been alarming enough to justify Japanese officials to step in, Ueda’s comments did look to us as a “soft” intervention. Clearly, BoJ members are ready to trade some more yen depreciation for clarity on their stance – and avoid bond market volatility – so the chances of actual FX intervention are rising again, especially given the unlikeliness of an immediate turn lower in the dollar ahead of next week’s FOMC.    

FX Daily: Yen bulls turn to US payrolls The big yen rally has been exacerbated by positioning factors, but markets may keep speculating on a BoJ December hike unless Japanese officials protest against hawkish bets before the meeting. A bigger upside risk for USD/JPY is today’s US payrolls, which could paint a still resilient jobs market picture, and help the dollar.   USD: Payrolls may ruin the party for the yen The exceptional rally in the yen remains the biggest story in FX at the moment. The size of the drop in USD/JPY and the volatile intraday price-action are a clear consequence of the heavy short positioning on the yen into this round of hawkish speculation on Japanese rates. USD/JPY net longs amounted to 42% of open interest on 28 November, as per the latest CFTC data. Despite technical factors such as positioning having exacerbated the yen moves, we’d be careful to call for a peak in the JPY rally just yet. First, because there is likely a lot more bearish JPY positioning to be scaled back by speculators, second – and most importantly – because markets may not have many incentives to unwind bets on a December BoJ hike unless Japanese or central bank officials step in to tame the speculation before the meeting. Our view remains that the BoJ would prefer to exit negative rates policy at either the January or April meeting, when the Outlook Report accompanies the policy decision and Governor Kazuo Ueda can use an upside revision in inflation to justify a rate hike. Incidentally, the final release of 3Q GDP in Japan signalled a worse economic contraction (-0.7% QoQ) than previously estimated. We’ll be looking at USD/JPY closely today not only to gauge how much markets continue to speculate on BoJ tightening but also in relation to US risk events. The US jobs figures for November are a key turning point for markets' ongoing speculation on Federal Reserve easing in 2024. The payrolls’ consensus number is 183k, but soft JOLTS job openings and ADP payrolls (despite the latter having no predictive power for official figures) suggest markets may be positioned for a weaker reading. Our economics team forecasts 180k, and we suspect the US jobs market may still prove a bit more resilient than expected – triggering some unwinding of dovish Fed bets and supporting the dollar. The US calendar also includes the December University of Michigan surveys; markets will mostly be moved by the inflation expectations numbers, which are expected to have declined. All in all, we see some upside risks for the dollar today. The high sensitivity of USD/JPY to US rates means that US payrolls could trigger a rebound in the pair. That said, the ongoing bullish momentum in the yen on the back of hawkish domestic bets means sellers of USD/JPY may re-emerge around the 145.0 area.  

Yen rebounds after two-day slide US inflation expected to drop to 3.0% The Japanese yen has ended a two-day slide, in which it dropped 1.4% against the US dollar. In Tuesday’s European session, USD/JPY is trading at 145.21, down 0.66%. Yen volatility continues The yen has been showing sharp swings since last Thursday, when signals from the Bank of Japan of a possible tightening in policy sent the yen soaring over 2% on Thursday. The yen then reversed directions and gave up much of those gains but has bounced back on Tuesday. The BoJ meets on December 18-19 in what has become a hotly anticipated event due to recent comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda and BoJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino. Ueda spoke of “an even more challenging situation” coming up for the BoJ and Himino mused about the consequences if rates were to rise into positive territory. On Monday, a report that Ueda was not referring to possible changes in rate policy sent the yen sharply lower. The takeaway is that the yen is very sensitive to talk about rate tightening and public comments from BoJ policy makers about rate policy ahead of the December meeting could have a strong impact on the yen’s movement. US inflation expected to decline to 3.0% The US releases November CPI later today, with a consensus estimate of 3.0% y/y, down from 3.2% in October. Monthly, CPI is expected to remain flat, unchanged from October. Core CPI, which has been running higher than the headline rate, is projected to remain unchanged at 4.0% y/y. Monthly, the core rate is expected to inch higher to 0.3%, up from 0.2% in October.   It’s a virtual certainty that the Fed will hold rates at a range of 5%-5.25% on Wednesday, but today’s inflation release could be a key factor as to what the Fed does in the upcoming months. There is a major disconnect between the markets, which have priced in four rate cuts in 2024, and the Fed, which is insisting that the door remains open to further hikes. A strong inflation report could temper market expectations for rate hikes next year, while a soft inflation release will provide support for the market stance and could force the Fed to reconsider its hawkish position. . USD/JPY Technical USD/JPY is putting pressure on support at 145.12. Below, there is support at 144.68 There is resistance at 145.85 and 146.89

JPY: Big swings in sight as BoJ announces policy The Bank of Japan has started its two-day meeting, with the announcement due early in the morning tomorrow (London time). Bank officials have already tempered rate hike expectations for this month by saying such a move is still premature. Still, with investors now actively betting on the end of negative rates in January, the language at this meeting will be key for the short-term performance of the yen. Governor Kazuo Ueda (pictured) is facing the options of either keeping the message broadly unchanged and disappointing the market’s hawkish expectations or offering hints about the state of the discussion on a rate hike and potentially suggesting a tentative timing. The good performance of the yen recently as global rates declined is surely taking off some pressure, but data is starting to prove increasingly inconsistent with the ultra-dovish stance of the BoJ. Our economist is still leaning toward 2Q24 for the first hike, and if that is the preference of the BoJ as well, then it may be too early for a real change in the dovish message later, and the yen risks a downward correction. However, the chances of a hike in January when new economic projections are released are non-negligible and depend on data as well as on JPY performance. Expect any hawkish surprise in communication tomorrow to push USD/JPY close to the 140 support, whereas an unchanged message can bring the pair back to 145, where we could see selling interest if the dollar momentum proves soft.

FX Daily: Asia in the driver's seat The dollar is softer and pro-cyclical currencies are following the yuan higher after news that China is preparing a CNY 2tn rescue package for the stock market. The BoJ revised inflation expectations lower but signalled further progress towards the target, keeping anticipation for a hike in June alive. We expect New Zealand CPI to be soft tonight.   USD: China and Japan in focus The dollar has been mostly moved by developments from outside of the US since the start of the week. China remains the centre of attention before key central bank meetings in the developed world. Risk sentiment was boosted overnight as the Chinese government is reportedly considering a large CNY 2tn package to support the struggling stock markets. The rescue plan should be mostly targeted to the Hang Seng stock exchange, which has sharply underperformed global equities of late. This is a strong message that conveys Beijing’s intention to artificially support Chinese markets in spite of the deteriorating economic outlook in the region, and it is reported that other measures are under consideration. It does appear a temporary solution, though. Ultimately, stronger conviction on a Chinese economic rebound is likely necessary to drive a sustainable recovery in Chinese-linked stocks. For now, the FX impact has been positive; USD/CNY has dropped to 7.16/7.17 and we are seeing gains being spread across pro-cyclical currencies as safe-haven flows to the dollar are waning. Doubts about the impact of Beijing rescue package’s effects beyond the short-term automatically extend to the FX impact. It does seem premature to call for an outperformance of China-linked currencies (like AUD and NZD) and softening in the dollar on the back of this morning’s headlines. Another important development in Asian markets overnight was the Bank of Japan policy announcement. In line with our expectations and market consensus, there were no changes to the yield curve control, and forward guidance remained unchanged. Inflation projections were revised lower from 2.8% to 2.4% for the fiscal year starting in April. The revision was mostly a consequence of declining oil prices, and the inflation path continues to show an overshoot of the target for some time. All this was largely expected, and markets are focusing on Governor Kazuo Ueda’s claim that Japan has continued to inch closer to the inflation goals, keeping expectations for an eventual end to the ultra-dovish policy stance some time this year. The yen is experiencing a rebound which is likely boosted its oversold conditions. Money markets currently price in a 10bp rate hike in June. Extra help from a declining USD this morning might push USD/JPY a bit lower (below 147) today, but we suspect that markets may favour defensive USD positions as the Fed meeting approaches. Domestically, the only release to watch today in the US is the Richmond Fed Manufacturing index, which will give some flavour about the state of the sector ahead of tomorrow’s S&P Global PMIs. DXY may stabilise slightly below 103.00 once the China-led risk rally has settled.