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The weight of risks is skewed to the upside for inflation as individuals and businesses grow more anxious about higher prices Supply disruptions, rising inflation expectations, and sentiment effects all lead us to reiterate the upside risks Core inflation pressures are also on the cards as capacity tightens Stocks seem generally unphased so far, but risks lie with how policymakers react You don’t have to search long to find inflation. It’s apparent at the grocery store, on TV, and on Google Trends. Last week, however, the narrative seemed to take a more drastic turn. Many in the “transitory” camp at least dipped a toe into the “permanent” waters. To wit, the UK 10-year breakeven rate surged to 4.24%, the highest in 25 years. In the US, the 5-year TIPS breakeven yield spiked to 3%. Our flagship Weekly Macro Themes report dived deep into the major puzzle pieces coming together to reiterate the upside risks to the inflation outlook. Supply Chains Front and Center Driving the uneasiness surrounding higher prices is undoubtedly the resurgence in supply chain issues. For a time during Q3, it appeared conditions at ports and shipping terminals were improving. Then the second wave of backlogs hit right as consumers geared up for the holiday shopping season. Indeed, everything is not ship-shape as evidenced by the chart below. Featured Chart: Surging Searches for Supply Chain Disruption & Backlogs Stocks Taking It in Stride How traditional economics solves the supply chain horror show will be fascinating to watch. It will take either expansion of capacity (temporary or permanent) or alternatively: softer demand. By way of the equity markets, it seems investors are content with whatever plays out. Equity indices are basically at or near all-time highs despite the onslaught of negative press surrounding business logistics. Bad Surprises Ultimately, inflation is what consumers are concerned about. Google Search Trends for terms like “inflation” has jumped to new highs as the global median inflation rate creeps up on 4% (from less than 2% through much of 2020). Moreover, the G10 Inflation Surprise Index is at its highest reading in more than 25 years. Expectations Are Hot In terms of inflation expectations, both business and consumer groups are more wary than the market. Consumer and business inflation expectations are some 2 standard deviations higher than long-term average. As time persists with rising prices front of mind, behavior will begin to shift and negotiations/contracts (prices!) will reflect this. Wage Growth Underscores Permanent Inflation Risks Powering higher prices is robust wage growth. The labor market remains tight for many developed economies, particularly in the US. Jobs are easy to get and staff are hard to find. As such, the latest NFIB survey reports a record percentage of small businesses expecting to raise worker compensation. It’s also never been more difficult to find workers, according to the NFIB report. Wages are sticky—once they go up, they rarely come back down. Higher pay is a major arrow in the quiver of team “permanent”. How Will Central Banks React? The Federal Reserve will have its say. Inflation fears could spark a quicker tightening cycle in developed economies. We already see it across much of the Emerging world. Earlier than expected rate hikes might derail the recovery and thus greatly slow the headline inflation rate. Also, consider that base-effects will be stout next year, helping to slow the rate. Bottom Line: We continue to see upside risks to global inflation after initiating the view at the start of the year. With a mix of short and medium-term factors at play, we see this key theme of 2021 continuing in importance into 2022. Follow us on: Substack https://topdowncharts.substack.com/ LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/company/topdown-charts Twitter http://www.twitter.com/topdowncharts

Latest news US broad-market indexes such as S&P 500 and Nasdaq are still near all-time highs, supported by robust corporate earnings. Microsoft, Google, Coca-Cola, and McDonald’s have beat analysts’ estimates this week. Today, we expect earnings from Apple, Amazon, and MasterCard. Look at these amazing movements! The Bank of Japan left the policy unchanged. The bank also cut its economic growth forecast because of the weak consumption and supply disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Crude Oil Inventories disappointed oil bulls with the hike in oil inventories. XBR/USD (Brent oil) and XTI/USD (WTI oil) dropped. Traders are awaiting the European Central Bank policy meeting today at 14:45 GMT+3. Besides, the US GDP will be out at 15:30 GMT+3. Technical analysis Gold keeps moving inside the ascending channel. It has surged above the psychological mark of $1800 and edged higher to the high of October 25 at $1810. If it manages to jump above this resistance level, the metal will rocket to the next round number of $1820. Support levels are the 200-day moving average of $1792 (which also lies at the lower line of the channel) and the 50-day moving average of $1780. AUD/USD has surged above the resistance level of 0.7500. It will struggle to break the next resistance level of 0.7535, but if it manages to break it, the way up to the four-month high of 0.7600 will be open. Support levels are 0.7500 and the low of October 22 at 0.7460. Download the FBS Trader app to trade anytime anywhere! For personal computer or laptop, use MetaTrader 5!

FBS, an international trading broker, sums highlight of this outgoing year up. In 2021, the world was tested once again, demonstrating our resilience and ability to overcome challenges. Despite all difficulties, the FBS yearly results turn to be great. In this light, FBS has prepared a special video to share its achievements with everyone. The year of new heights It was a vivid year for FBS, which has become even more powerful thanks to its new traders and partners. Currently, 21 000 000 traders joined FBS. Also, FBS clients opened over 500 800 000 orders and earned $740 864 599 during 2021. The annual total trading volume of FBS is $8 974 589 830 000. The numbers are really huge and show the broker’s reliability and prosperity. The year of cooperation FBS has widened its collaboration with talented and outstanding people united by common goals and vision. In May 2021, FBS became the Official Principal Partner of Leicester City Football Club. The partnership commemorates the mutual vision of the two teams. The growing strength of Leicester City and the unique capabilities of FBS to make trading accessible to everyone yielded results. The various joint contests and interesting activities were held for FBS clients and LCFC fans. And it is only the start of this three-year journey. In addition, FBS found a new brand ambassador, Kan Kantathavorn in South East Asia. Famous Thai actor, host, and model has the same ideas and values. Thus, FBS and Mr. Kan aspire to give people more free time to do great things and be with family by earning on trading. A global media campaign started in September 2021 with fascinating videos devoted to the FBS products and promises to bring even more. The year of kindness FBS never stands aside when it comes to making the world a better place. That is why FBS donates money for charity every year. And 2021 was no exception. This year, FBS keeps fulfilling its traders’ dreams and gives people opportunities to grow themselves and help others in Dreams Come True. One of the FBS traders’ dreams was to support low-income mothers. And FBS sent special kits of clothes and necessities for newborns to its trader who helps those in need since childhood. He has already delivered the packages to several hospitals in the south of Bogota. Now the newborns are surrounded by care, and their moms can breathe a sigh of relief. This event showed how important it never stop dreaming. Thus, FBS share the greatest power of all. The power of helping others. The year of rebranding FBS keeps improving, becoming more digital and up-to-date to provide clients with the best service possible. Each fresh design element, such as logos, colors, fonts, or blocks, has its meaning to highlight every FBS product’s uniqueness and make them more recognizable and manageable for users. The renewed brand style marks the beginning of an even more client-oriented era in FBS history. The world is developing, more innovations come and go, but something stays unchanged – broker’s gratitude to each trader. The year of trendy features This year, FBS has strengthened the efficiency of its products. Just in 2021, 8 000 000 new traders joined FBS Personal Area while FBS Trader, an all-in-one trading platform, crossed 5 000 000 downloads and new traders. Being among the financial market leaders, FBS improved opportunities for stock traders. That is why the list of instruments was steadily updated with new stocks to diversify the portfolio easily. Recently added stocks are listed on London Stocks Exchange and Frankfurt Stock Exchange. Also, FBS Trader were updated with Economic Calendar to trade Forex in the most convenient way. Now traders can explore all economic events with no need to google news. FBS couldn’t ignore the growing crypto market. So, in the FBS Trader app, a Crypto account was launched to trade crypto anytime and try more than a hundred crypto assets. Also, the list is constantly updated with the new and popular crypto like Shiba Inu, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and more. As per clients’ request, trading indicators, Moving Average and Bollinger Bands, were added to FBS Trader. This year pushed the app to a new level. In addition, FBS enhanced the learning section and educational materials. Now traders of any level can study trading basics or boost existing skills in the FBS website using special video lessons prepared by financial analysts. Also, FBS launched new Forex courses divided by levels to cover all topics in a few lessons. All the materials, which are articles and webinars, are published daily, and traders can get access to them free. The year of socializing FBS became more integrated into social media in 2021. This year Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube channels of FBS Europe were actively spread useful strategies, hot news that made the market volatile, and a variety of contests. The contest’s winners got signed merch by LCFC and more exclusive gifts. Next year promises to bring even more interesting activities and trading secrets to the FBS Europe’s subscribers. The year of awards Considering the fruitful year for FBS, new awards were not long in coming. Of course, the experts noticed these achievements. FBS came to the top once again and was awarded by Global Banking & Finance Review and The European Global Banking & Finance Awards with: Best Trading Platform Asia 2021 Best Forex Broker Thailand 2021 Best Mobile Trading Platform Europe 2021 Best Social Trading Platform Indonesia 2021 Best Mobile Copy Trading Application LATAM Best Trading Broker in South East Asia 2021 So, these awards are points of the broker’s reliability and versatility because FBS met all the professional judging panel criteria. The 2021 year brought a lot of events to the big FBS family, motivating a broker to hit new records!

The S&P500 finished January with a strong two-day rally, but the index is still more than 5% lower than where it kicked off the year, having recorded its worst month since March 2020. Nasdaq closed yesterday’s session up by more than 3% for the second day in a row. Nasdaq is already up by almost 9% from the January dip. Yet, 3-4% gains are often sign of high volatility and stress, and they could easily melt down in no time. What we need to see now is smaller but more sustainable gains to call the end of the January selloff. Good news is that the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials start sending softer messages and the hawkish pricing is mostly done, which could lead to some more recovery in US stocks, especially of the upcoming earnings are strong, and in Bitcoin. Exxon, Google, General Motors, AMD and EA are among the most closely monitored companies due to announce their Q4 earnings. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:23 Market update 1:58 Some factors supportive of a further recovery 4:19 Bitcoin ready to pull out the $40K offers 5:37 Google earnings: what could go wrong? 6:36 Exxon to announce a nearly-doubled revenue 7:23 Sony buys Bungie 8:21 DAX: potential to outperform US peers? 9:09 AUDUSD set for further slide as RBA hints at no rate hike Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.

US stocks gained for the third consecutive session, and the gains seemed more stable this time as the VIX index retreats. The Federal Reserve (Fed) storm is coming to an end, with most hawkish expectations already factored in the asset prices, and the strong corporate earnings help equities bind up their wounds. We have two important events on today’s macro calendar: the OPEC meeting and the US ADP report. OPEC will discuss whether and by how much they should increase its oil output at today’s meeting. But whatever happens, crude prices are poised for an advance towards the three-digit levels in the coming months given that global glut declines faster than expected due to a stronger recovery in demand, and ongoing supply constraints. And the US jobs figures don't really matter. We guess that the December ADP number will be soft; we could even see a negative print today as the omicron may have taken a severe toll on the US jobs market in December. But it won’t matter for the Fed expectations! Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:29 Good news for the cryptocurrencies! 1:46 US stocks extend recovery as volatility eases 2:25 Nasdaq rebounds on strong tech earnings 3:06 Google results impress! 3:53 Exxon, AMD, GM and Ford news 5:41 OPEC: don't hold your breath! 8:27 US jobs data doesn't matter anymore, but we still wacth! Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.

Do you ever wonder how Google understands what you’re looking for? There’s a lot that goes into delivering helpful search results, and understanding language is one of the most important skills. Thanks to advancements in AI and machine learning, our Search systems are understanding human language better than ever before. And we want to share a behind-the-scenes look at how this translates into relevant results for you. But first, let's walk down memory lane: In the early days of Search, before we had advanced AI, our systems simply looked for matching words. For example, if you searched for “pziza” — unless there was a page with that particular misspelling, you’d likely have to redo the search with the correct spelling to find a slice near you. And eventually, we learned how to code algorithms to find classes of patterns, like popular misspellings or potential typos from neighboring keys. Now, with advanced machine learning, our systems can more intuitively recognize if a word doesn’t look right and suggest a possible correction. Full article available on blog.google

YouTube's Chief Product Officer Neal Mohan offers an inside look at this year's new products, tools, and features for our creators, viewers, and partners. Last year, I launched an Innovation series to give you an inside look into how our teams were working to redefine the video experience in 2021 and beyond. And it was quite a year for innovation at YouTube. We refreshed how viewers engage with content, from improving core experiences like search and the infrastructure that powers the platform to advancing across apps and formats like YouTube TV, YouTube Shorts and YouTube Music. We also introduced new ways for creators to make money and brought more choice for parents to guide their families' experiences. And along the way, we partnered with creators to empower them to do what they do best. Learn more on blog.youtube

Summary: Tech stocks Google and Microsoft expected to make their earnings announcements today. China and the lockdowns effect on the overall economy. Will Microsoft be able to weather the current economic storm? The markets took a hit with the prospects of further lockdowns in China and the possible ripple effects that can come from a slowing of China’s economy. The price of Microsoft stocks are up today in anticipation of the company’s earnings announcement due after the market closes today. The markets took a hit with the prospects of further lockdowns in China and the possible ripple effects that can come from a slowing of China’s economy. Read next: A Reward For A Transaction!? What Is Kishu Inu Coin? ($KISHU) Let's Take A Look At This New Altcoin | FXMAG.COM With the current market already taking hits from the current economic conditions regarding inflation and general uncertainty, the added prospect of a weakening Chinese economy is causing the stock market to be volatile as investor sentiment changes. Microsoft Equity Share Price Read next: (KO) Coca-Cola Earnings Posted Exceeding Expectations, Elon Musk’s Target on Twitter (TWTR) Coming To Life!?  Investors going long on Google in anticipation for this evening's earnings announcements. Investors are waiting with anticipation in light of the earnings announcement due from the CEO of Google later this afternoon. There is a bullish market sentiment on this stock as investors hope that Google will meet market expectations, this market sentiment is driving the price of Google stocks up by more than 3%. Over the past week the price has both risen and fallen for this stock due to the volatility of the current financial markets and again the current situation in China. Investors are interested in how well companies are weathering the current economic storm. Google Equity Share Price Sources: Finance.yahoo.com, barrons.com.

Michael Burry is a well-known US investor who became famous for betting on the collapse of the US real estate market and the burst of the bubble in 2008. On 15 August, he filed a 13F form with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), revealing the positions of his fund, Scion Asset Management. To the surprise of many, the investment portfolio turned out to be almost completely empty. Burry held shares worth 165 million at the end of the first quarter. These included companies such as Google, Meta and Stellantis. However, the latest report filed with the regulator revealed that all of it had been sold and the glorified investor's only long position is in GeoGroup, a company involved in running private prisons, but the value of the position is negligible at just under $3.31 million. The investor has recently been posting a number of tweets suggesting the end of the bear market rally. This has sent shock waves across the market, as the investment manager has usually been successful in predicting the market moves, famous for his incisiveness. If there were to be large declines in the broad traditional market, e.g. equities, what could this mean for crypto? The correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq 100 seems to be apparent, but after the last all-time high reading of 0.84 in May, it dropped to around 0.48 at the end of June. What is unfortunate, however, is that the correlation has been rising with subsequent waves of declines and peaked near local lows. If the stock market were to actually experience a crash, a strong reaction from the crypto market can be expected. The recent increase in correlation may be due to the increasing participation of token trading institutions. Michael Burry's attitude was addressed by Mati Greenspan CEO of Quantum Economic, stating that predicting the timing and scale of a crash is almost impossible. "Predicting a stock crash is a lot like predicting an earthquake. You know one will happen every so often but you can never tell exactly when or how severe it will be" - Greenspan said. On the Conotoxia MT5 platform, BTC is seeing its fourth day of decline, losing more than 0.7% at 10:30 GMT+3, while ETH is gaining less than 0.3%, drawing its first upward candle in three days. Rafał Tworkowski, Junior Market Analyst, Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.   Source: Michael Burry closed almost all his positions - what could another stock market crash mean for crypto?

After both Boris Johnson and Penny Mordaunt pulled out of the British PM race, Rushi Sunak cried victory on Monday afternoon, and markets cried ‘Ready for Rishi’. The new UK Prime Minister The British sovereign bonds posted one of the biggest gains on record, the 10-year gilt yield tanked 8.50%, the 30-year yield dived 8.40%, sterling gained. Investors loved seeing Sunak become the new UK Prime Minister, they, however, hated seeing Xi Jinping confirm a third term. NASDAQ Nasdaq’s Golden Dragon China index lost more than 20% yesterday and closed the session more than 14% down. Direxion’s FTSE China Bear times 3 ETF jumped almost 30% in the session. Macro data On macro, the PMI data revealed yesterday did little good to the mood in Europe. The composite PMI fell to 47.1, which is the lowest level since April 2013. In the US, the services sector saw a sharp, and an unexpected decline to 46.6, from 49.3 printed a month earlier, and 49.6 expected by analysts. Japanese core CPI advanced to 2% versus 1.9% expected by analysts. The dollar-yen trades touch below the 149 mark after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) intervened to slowdown the depreciation in yen. US tech giants In the corporate space, two big US tech giants are due to announce earnings: Alphabet and Microsoft. Their revenues are expected to have slowed in the latest quarter, but how much of the slowdown is already priced in? Walking into the results, it’s important to remember that soft results don’t necessarily mean negative market reaction. If the soft results still beat the market estimates, we could see Google, and Microsoft shares rally. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:39 Markets are ready for Rishi! 2:52 …but not for Xi. 4:32 PMI data disappoint 6:00 Japanese inflation advance 7:25 Google earnings preview 9:07 Microsoft earnings preview 10:20 Option traders bet for Tesla below $200! Ipek Ozkardeskaya  Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Google #Microsoft #earnings #UK #PM #Rishi #Sunak #GBP #USD #JPY #BoJ #ECB #China #XiJinping #selloff #Tesla #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5  ___  Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

US indices rallied yesterday on the back of soft economic data from the US, but the sentiment reversed after the Q3 results from Google and Microsoft didn't please. Both stocks fell in the afterhours trading. Rest of the earnings were mixed. Meta is the next US giant to announce earnings, and expectations are rather… low. US Yields The US 2-year yield has been easing after hitting a fresh 15-year high last week, as the US 10-year yield fell to 4.05%. The dollar index tanked around 1%, both the EURUSD and Cable advanced past their 50-DMA, which were acting as strong resistance since the start of the year, especially since the start of the war in Ukraine. Bank of Canada The USDCAD fell to a 3-week low, as the Bank of Canada (BoC) prepares to deliver another jumbo rate hike today. The BoC could deliver a 75bp hike, which would further fuel the odds of recession in Canada by next year. FX Market It’s important to note that the common denominator of the latest FX moves is the softer US dollar. And the downside moves in dollar and the US yields depend on Fed expectations – whatever the other central banks do seem accessory to the main dollar story. Fed The Fed expectations have been shaped by softish data, and some softish comments from the Fed officials recently. But there is nothing official pointing at a potential softening tone from the Fed just yet. Hence, the recent fall in the US dollar, and rebound in equities may not last. Gains remain vulnerable. And very much so, as the latest results from the US tech giants failed to make the investors smile yesterday. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:35 Soft US data fueled optimism… 3:15 … but Big Tech earnings hurt. GOOG & MSFT fell 6.5% post-market 5:01 Other companies announced mixed results 6:30…as UPS surprised 7:00 Some come back to stocks, but stock/ bond correlation remains high 7:52 Meta earnings preview: expect nothing crazy… Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Meta #Google #Microsoft #UPS #Spotify #GM #Visa #UBS #CocaCola #earnings #USD #EUR #GBP #CAD #BoC #rate #decision #US #home #prices #Fed #expectations #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH  

The technology companies that have acted as growth drivers for stock markets in recent years are increasingly losing their leading positions. Although it would be too naive to talk about the "beginning of the end" for the IT giants, the initial reaction to the reports of Microsoft and Alphabet makes it seem more like a threat to the recovery of the Nasdaq and S&P500 indices. Shares of both giants are losing around 6.6% on the post-market. Microsoft's revenue and profit beat expectations, but investors see more negative numbers in the dynamic (-3.4% QoQ on revenue and -14.4% YoY on profit). Alphabet noted a tough time in the ad market, with an overall profit fall of 26.6% y/y despite revenue growth of 6.6% y/y. The latter is the lowest rate in 9 years. Experienced traders have long noticed that companies are likely to present the situation to industry analysts, so they make low projections. And easily beat them shortly after in ¾ of the cases. It is, therefore, not uncommon for neutral numbers or a slight overperformance to lead to a share price slump. Also, in growth sectors, markets are paying increased attention to companies' forecasts. And they have been disappointed. Both Microsoft and Alphabet cited falling PC and ad sales. And that's bad news for the future, as it doesn't set the stage for a turnaround in the coming months. Microsoft's comments about cloud computing cuts also pulled Amazon shares, which are losing 4.3% in the post-market. On a more general level, the simple rule of thumb remains that the IT sector is inversely correlated with interest rate movements and is more vulnerable during the economic downturn for which many are now preparing. Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Choosing from major US indices - the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq - the first looks the most promising, including more manufacturing companies and a smaller weighting on the IT sector. This driver change can already be seen in that the Dow Jones made its lows in early October, while the other two made their lows on 13 October: the strongest are recovering first. And it is not the Technology sector right now. Nonetheless, while this trio stays about 20% below the peak and the US Fed forwarding market expectations to slower rate hikes, it looks like the bottom is already behind us.

Summary: NASDAQ weighed down by poor MSFT & GOOGL earnings. Xi's years-long campaign to destroy the faction was successful. Spotify surpassed expectations in terms of both paid and free user growth. NASDAQ down more than 1.5% on Tuesday On Wednesday, Nasdaq futures dropped more than 1% after poor financial statements from tech titans Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Microsoft prompted losses at other megacap firms and fueled concerns about slowing economic growth. While Alphabet, the parent company of Google, reported disappointing ad sales and warned of a slowdown in advertising expenditure, Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) reported its lowest sales growth in five years and anticipated second-quarter revenue below Wall Street estimates. In premarket trade, the businesses' shares plummeted 5.7% and 6.0%, respectively, while those of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN), who are expected to release earnings this week, dropped 3.7% and 0.6%. The disappointing results come after Snap Inc. (NYSE:SNAP) issued a warning last week over sluggish ad demand and a string of mixed earnings reports, which have added to concerns that the economy is being negatively impacted by decades-high inflation and ad-hoc interest rate hikes to combat it. ⚠️BREAKING:*NASDAQ 100 FUTURES TUMBLE 1.8% AS GOOGLE, MICROSOFT SINK AFTER EARNINGS$QQQ $GOOGL $MSFT pic.twitter.com/2rd4B4bJjP — Investing.com (@Investingcom) October 26, 2022 China’s new president pushes out youth league members The three most notable absences from China's new Communist Party leadership have one thing in common: they all rose through the ranks of the Youth League and were regarded as representatives of a once-dominant clique, whose influence Xi Jinping has now successfully quashed. Even the larger Central Committee was bypassed as Xi installed supporters in key party positions during the recent twice-a-decade leadership reshuffle. Premier Li Keqiang and Vice Premier Wang Yang, both 67 and young enough to be re-appointed to the elite seven-member Politburo Standing Committee, were left out. Hu Chunhua, a fellow vice premier and former high flyer who, at 59, had been considered a prospect for premier and, at one point, even a potential future president, failed to make it to the 24-man Politburo. Analysts said the omissions demonstrate Xi's years-long campaign to destroy the faction was successful. China's Xi deals knockout blow to once-powerful Youth League faction https://t.co/g47pd77mil pic.twitter.com/uqSDoVgG2g — Reuters (@Reuters) October 26, 2022 Spotify up 20% on Users Spotify surpassed expectations in terms of both paid and free user growth in the third quarter, pointing to the region's strength in particular. A net addition of 23 million members, or 20% more than Spotify's previous projection, brought the total number of monthly active users (MAUs) to 456 million, which is the company's highest Q3 growth to date. The number of Spotify Premium subscribers increased to 195 million, up 7 million during the time (about 1 million more than expected) and 13% annually. Ek stated on the earnings call that Spotify is considering increasing the cost of its U.S. subscription plans in response to price increases by YouTube Premium and Apple Music. “[I]t’s something we will [discuss] with our label partners,” he said. “I feel good about this upcoming year, and what it means about pricing for our service.” Spotify (SPOT) reported a quarterly loss of $0.99 per share vs the $0.88 loss that the Zacks Consensus Estimate had predicted. This contrasts with a loss of $0.48 per share in the prior year. These numbers have non-recurring expenses taken into account. This quarterly report shows a -12.50% profits surprise. This music streaming service operator surprised analysts by posting a loss of $0.91 per share during the most recent quarter when it was anticipated that it would lose $0.68, a difference of -33.82%. The management's remarks on the earnings call will be largely responsible for determining if the stock's current price movement based on previously revealed numbers and anticipated future earnings can be sustained. Compared to the S&P 500's -20.3% decrease since the start of the year, Spotify share prices have fallen by around 59.6%. Spotify reaches 456M total monthly users in Q3, up 20% YoY and topping expectations https://t.co/vRe14ATA7s via @Variety CEO also said subscribers can expect price hikes for the service sometime in 2023. $SPOT shares are down 5% in after market trading. — Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) October 25, 2022 Sources: finance.yahoo.com, twitter.com, reuters.com, investing.com

Yesterday wasn’t not a good day for the US Big Tech. Google dived almost 10% after reporting disappointing results, while Microsoft sank almost 8%. Nasdaq bounced 2% lower after having tested the major 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, a touch below the 11700. Meta And don’t expect the things to look better today. Meta dived another 20% in the afterhours trading, after announcing disappointed results. Softer-than-expected  On the macro front, however, the Bank of Canada (BoC) surprised with a softer-than-expected rate hike, and US home sales fell almost 11% in September.   EUR/USD The US dollar index dived below its 50-DMA yesterday. The EURUSD rallied above parity, as Cable advanced past 1.16. Focun On Focus shifts to US GDP dat, the European Central Bank (ECB) decision, Apple & Amazon earnings today. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:33 US Big Tech selloff intensifies. Meta down 20% post-market 1:55 What to expect from Apple & Amazon?7 4:05 Policy pivot? 5:20 US GDP to rebound despite sluggish economy 6:52 US dollar softer, EURUSD rallies above parity, Cable past 1.16 7:52 ECB to hike by 75bp, discuss QT 9:19 Gold, oil up on soft dollar Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Apple #Amazon #Meta #Google #Microsoft #earnings #USD #GDP #ECB #rate #decision #EUR #XAU #crudeoil #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH      

Using the cloud is better when there are multiple providers of remotely hosted infrastructure technology, as opposed to relying on one company according to the U.S. Defense Department. What's more, there is a lot of information about the Chinese economy, as well as about QFII.  Read next: Nigeria Bans Cash Withdrawal Higher Than 225$ To Encourage CBDC Use | FXMAG.COM In this article: Money Talks podcast Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor One of the greatest transformations in retail A cloud deal The potential impact of China’s reopening China is once again struggling with the problem of growing infections. To this end, they have closed their economy under the zero-covid policy. As the second largest economy in the world, it has a significant impact on smaller economies and markets. Recently, there has been information about the easing of restrictions, and thus the financial markets, especially those in Asia, have experienced a revival. In a podcast hosted by APAC Chief Economist Andrew Tilton, you can learn about other impacts of reopening the Chinese economy. Listen to our Chief APAC Economist Andrew Tilton discuss the potential impact of China’s reopening on this week’s Money Talks podcast from The Economist: https://t.co/2wW6YFLDhr https://t.co/p4BTFHkuAv — Goldman Sachs (@GoldmanSachs) December 8, 2022   Opening-up of China's qualified foreign institutional investor program Foreign financial institutions expect further reform and opening-up of China's qualified foreign institutional investor program. Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) is a term used to describe a program launched by the Chinese government in 2002 that enables foreign institutional investors to gain direct access to trade “A-shares” of Chinese stocks, denominated in China's renminbi/yuan (RMB), on Chinese stock exchanges. Over the past 20 years, the number of participants in the program has expanded. Currently, the types of investments that can be traded under the QFII system include listed equities, government bonds, corporate bonds, convertible bonds, commodity futures and other financial instruments. With the development and changes in the markets, it is required to introduce references also in QFII. Deutsche Bank’s Li Zhan says that as China opens up its #QFII programme even more, it will help enrich the structure of China’s capital market. Read more: https://t.co/U0gn0oedN0 #SecuritiesServices @DBCorporateBank pic.twitter.com/jEVJ9ETuHD — Deutsche Bank (@DeutscheBank) December 8, 2022 One of the greatest transformations in retail Today, shoppers have much more choice in what they buy, how they buy and where. It still matters to belong to a given brand. Companies have to compete much more to get a customer. Walmart is now the world's largest retailer - with more than 10,000 stores in 24 countries - but its growth story continues. You can learn about the vision and goals of CEO Of Walmart from the conversation about which the author of the tweet writes. Walmart pulled off one of the greatest transformations in retail. Morgan Stanley speaks with CEO, Doug McMillon, about his vision for future growth. Watch the full episode at https://t.co/F4puMPZFw8. pic.twitter.com/jE4GUm80ae — Morgan Stanley (@MorganStanley) December 7, 2022 Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Oracle received a cloud-computing contract Of the four companies receiving cloud-computing contracts from the Pentagon. Last year, the Pentagon changed its approach, asking for bids from Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Oracle to meet its cloud needs. The purpose of this agreement is to provide the Department of Defense with globally available enterprise-wide cloud services across all security domains and classification levels. Having more than one cloud can make organizations more confident that they can withstand service disruptions caused by downtime. Correction: Google, Oracle, Amazon and Microsoft awarded Pentagon cloud deal of up to $9 billion combinedhttps://t.co/LhIaVvb2yc — CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) December 8, 2022  

German luxury automobile firm BMW was fined 30,000 pounds ($36,519) plus a daily penalty of 15,000 pounds by UK's anti-trust regulator. Google has taken action and believes the restructuring will reduce overlapping mapping work in Waze and Maps. BMW AG was fined The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) is the competition regulator in United Kingdom. It is a non-ministerial government department responsible for strengthening business competition and preventing and reducing anti-competitive activities. In March this year, the CMA launched an investigation into a number of vehicle manufacturers and trade associations over suspected breaches of competition law. This investigation is to focus in particular on the use of recycled materials in cars. Read next: The Euro Benefited From The Weakening Of The US Dollar, A Potential Downside Risk For The Australian Dollar Over The Next Few Weeks| FXMAG.COM The CMA suspects that BMW AG, based in Germany, or other companies of the BMW Group based outside of the UK, have information that the CMA believes is important to its investigation. The CMA therefore formally requested information from the BMW Group. Requests for information may include a wide range of documents and information, such as copies of emails, meeting minutes, and/or information about internal roles and responsibilities. The wider BMW group did not fully comply with the CMA's legal request, and BMW UK did so. For this reason, the CMA has imposed a fine of £30,000 plus a daily penalty of £15,000, in addition, daily penalties will continue to accrue until BMW Group provides the required information. The European Commission is also running a parallel investigation into the issue. Like most companies, BMW shares also fell significantly after Russia's aggression in Ukraine. In the second and third quarters, it managed to make up for the losses. It seems that the last quarter of the year looks optimistic for BMW prices. Since the beginning of December, the traffic has been directed downwards. The last time it traded this low was November 17. Google and its plans to connecting Waze with Geo The search giant is under pressure to streamline operations and cut costs. This is why, Google CEO Sundar Pichai was looking for areas where efficiency could be improved. Google wants to become 20% more productive. There was a suggestion that the company could combine teams working on overlapping products. For this reason, Google plans to connect more than 500 Waze employees with the company's Geo organization, which oversees Maps, Earth and Street View products. Google acquired Waze in 2013 for $1.1 billion. Waze counts 151 million monthly active users for its crowdsourced mapping service, which is known for maintaining detailed traffic data. The service operated largely independently of Google Maps after the acquisition, and Google says it will stay that way. The overall situation of Alphabet Inc (GOOG) for the year is in a downward trend. The current quarter looks the weakest, so any action can be beneficial. Currently, the share price is trading around 95.00 and still falling. This could mean a drop to the November lows. Source: gov.uk, finance.yahoo.com, wsj.com

The deal with The NFL Sunday Ticket cements YouTube, a division of Google, as a growing force in online and TV streaming. The agreement The company that started out as a website offering user-generated clips with little curation now also sells cable bundles and the best sports shows it was once meant to supplant. On Tuesday, the National Football League was in advanced talks to grant YouTube exclusive rights to the NFL Sunday Ticket, a subscription-only package that allows football fans to watch most Sunday afternoon games. YouTube will pay an average of around $2 billion a year to secure the rights to the NFL Sunday Ticket franchise. What is The Sunday Ticket? The Sunday Ticket is a subscription-only package that gives customers access to all Sunday afternoon matches from non-market teams. The NFL is eager to form media partnerships with tech companies, which broadens the pool of potential bidders whenever rights deals come up. YouTube will offer the Sunday Ticket as an add-on to YouTube TV and on the video platform's main app through a service called Primetime Channels, which allows viewers to subscribe to individual channels. Current owner of rights DirecTV currently pays the National Football League an average fee of $1.5 billion per season for both residential and commercial rights. His contract expires at the end of this season. The current rights holder DirecTV has approximately 13.5 million subscribers. However, like all other cable and satellite providers, it has been hit hard by cable cuts as more and more consumers turn to streaming. Major sports are migrating The potential move of the Sunday Ticket to YouTube is further evidence that major sports are migrating from traditional television, which has been hit by cable cuts, to streaming and tech companies willing to spend a lot on content. Amazon.com Inc. has its own NFL deal while Apple Inc. broadcasts some Major League Baseball games and has a new Major League Soccer deal. Amazon and Apple also kicked the Sunday Ticket tires. Even Netflix, which has said it has no interest in acquiring major sports rights to its streaming service, has explored acquiring rights to niche sports and even taking stakes in leagues. Read next: According To The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), Cities In Europe And Canada Are The Best To Live In| FXMAG.COM Why is it good deal for YouTube? The addition of a Sunday ticket would provide a boost to YouTube streaming as the video platform tries to expand beyond ad sales to subscription revenue. YouTube's advertising business fell year-on-year for the first time in the third quarter after a series of rapid growth during the pandemic. YouTube situation YouTube has recently become a go-to destination for TV viewers, surpassing Netflix Inc. as the most watched streaming service on TV for the first time earlier this year, according to Nielsen data. YouTube TV, an online bundle of cable channels for $64.99 a month, surpassed more than 5 million subscriptions and trial accounts in June. The Primetime channels, which launched in November, allow viewers to subscribe individually to more than 30 streaming services, and the Sunday Ticket would be offered as an add-on to both services. Problems for traditional television Traditional TV networks continue to make big NFL rights deals. CBS and Fox air Sunday games, while NBC and ESPN air prime-time games on Sunday and Monday, respectively. The NFL has signed long-term deals with its partners that collectively are valued at over $100 billion. There are signs some traditional media companies are struggling to keep up with the rising costs of sports rights deals, especially given the high amounts tech companies are willing to pay. Google share prices Google should see higher stock prices due to increasing internet usage and ad revenue. This week, stock prices fell from 90.25 to 88.26. Thus, this is the worst week in the current month. Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com

A virtual power plant is intelligent software that connects multiple generators, energy storage and consumers into one optimized ecosystem. A virtual power plant can support a photovoltaic farm in several ways. For example, they can mediate in the sale of energy from the farm, so the participation of large companies can bring an increase in interest, which has a lot of benefits for both parties. In this article: Advancements in obesity and Alzheimer’s care Airlines problems Scaling up the use of virtual power plants Why is retail investment lagging behind on the old continent Advancements in obesity and Alzheimer’s care We live in times where development is quite fast. The technology of our life has made our life easier, especially communication. With the development of technology, our lifestyle has changed to a more sedentary one, which leads to overweight and even obesity. Being overweight, depending on how many calories you consume, can progress to obesity. Nowadays, the problem of overweight affects many societies mainly due to: a sedentary lifestyle, lack of regular physical activity and an incorrect, unbalanced diet. Moreover, a change in our diet, in which we consume more sugars than our grandparents did, increases the risk of Alzheimer's. These two diseases can affect anyone, which is why the development of the medical sector in this direction is important. Advancements in obesity and Alzheimer’s care present new opportunities for the healthcare sector in 2023. J.P. Morgan’s Chris Schott shares why at #JPMHC23. — J.P. Morgan (@jpmorgan) January 11, 2023   Read next: The New Disney Drama: Disney Is Opposing Activist-Investor Nelson Peltz| FXMAG.COM Airlines problems Airlines in the United States have recently faced many problems. Due to unfavorable climatic conditions during the Christmas period, many flights were delayed or cancelled. There are also problems from the technical side. Systems have been failing recently, and transport companies are doing what they can to restore full efficiency. BREAKING: Widespread U.S. flight delays expected after critical FAA system goes down; agency currently working on getting it back online pic.twitter.com/DVQAw4nsTE — CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) January 11, 2023 Scaling up the use of virtual power plants Companies including GM, Ford, Google and solar producers said on Tuesday they would work together to set standards for increasing the use of virtual power plants (VPPs). Energy transition nonprofit RMI will host the initiative, the Virtual Power Plant Partnership (VP3). VPPs are poised for a surge in the United States, where the Inflation Reduction Act of 2021. created or extended tax incentives for electric cars, electric water heaters, solar panels and other devices whose production and consumption can be coordinated to seamlessly load the grid. RMI estimates VPPs could reduce US peak demand by 60 gigawatts by 2030 VPPs have already improved network reliability in countries such as Germany and Australia, and in some US states. During last August's extreme heatwave, wholesale market operator California Independent System Operator avoided power outages by calling in all available resources, including VPP, to send electricity. Google Nest Smart Thermostats have contributed to reducing the load. WATCH: Companies including GM, Ford and Google said they would work together to establish standards for scaling up the use of virtual power plants, which are systems meant for easing loads on electricity grids when supply is short https://t.co/WPvixNGfyA pic.twitter.com/3Fs2rut5kz — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) January 12, 2023 Why is retail investment lagging behind on the old continent? Although the share of retail investors in Europe has doubled since 2020, it remains low. By comparison, the retail business still accounts for just 5-7 percent of total trading volume in Europe, compared to over 25 percent in the US and over 60 percent in China. So why is retail investment lagging behind on the old continent and is it possible to change this situation?   How do "free" trading platforms get paid? https://t.co/u1wiWxww1K (via @CNBCi) pic.twitter.com/0qoa9C9ZF8 — CNBC (@CNBC) January 12, 2023

DAILY MARKET NEWSLETTER January 23, 2023               Pre-Market Session News Sentiment Technical Views           EUR/USD   Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)   Brent (ICE)                 Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.                     Price Movement Analyst Views Target Pivot   Dax (Eurex) 15,161.00 +80.00 (+0.53%) Read the analysis 15,095.00 15,220.00     FTSE 100 (ICE Europe) 0.00 0.00 (0.00%) Read the analysis 7,746.00 7,798.00     S&P 500 (CME) 3,983.75 -4.75 (-0.12%) Read the analysis 4,005.00 3,950.00     Nasdaq 100 (CME) 11,661.25 -15.75 (-0.13%) Read the analysis 11,720.00 11,580.00     Dow Jones (CME) 33,446.00 -28.00 (-0.08%) Read the analysis 33,620.00 33,280.00     Crude Oil (WTI) 81.33 -0.31 (-0.38%) Read the analysis 81.90 80.60     Gold 1,930.95 +4.87 (+0.25%) Read the analysis 1,936.00 1,920.00                     MARKET WRAP           Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, CommoditiesOn Friday, U.S. stocks closed higher after declining for most of the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 330 points (+1.00%) to 33,375, the S&P 500 rose 73 points (+1.89%) to 3,972, and the Nasdaq 100 jumped 323 points (+2.86%) to 11,619.The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rebounded a further 8.9 basis points to 3.481%.Media (+4.61%), automobiles (+3.78%), and semiconductors (+3.51%) sectors gained the most.NetFlix (NFLX) jumped 8.46% after the video-streaming company signed up more subscribers than expected in the fourth quarter. Also, company co-founder Reed Hastings will step down as chief executive.Alphabet (GOOGL) rose 5.34% as the parent company of Google announced plans to cut about 12,000 jobs or over 6% of its global workforce. Meanwhile, Tesla (TSLA) gained 4.91%, Nvidia (NVDA) jumped 6.41%, Amazon.com (AMZN) added 3.81%, Microsoft (MSFT) advanced 3.57%, and Apple (AAPL) was up 1.92%.Regarding U.S. economic data, the number of existing-home sales dropped at an annualized rate of 1.5% on month in December (vs -2.0% expected).European stocks also closed higher. The DAX 40 rose 0.76%, the CAC 40 gained 0.63%, and the FTSE 100 was up 0.30%.U.S. WTI crude futures increased $1.20 to $81.84 a barrel, as investors turned optimistic on higher oil demand coming from China.Gold price retreated $4 to $1,927 an ounce.Market Wrap: ForexThe U.S. dollar index dipped to 101.99.EUR/USD added 24 pips to 1.0857. Germany's data showed that producer prices grew 21.8% on year in December (vs +19.9% expected, +28.2% in November).USD/JPY surged 115 pips (+0.90%) to 129.58. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated that the central bank will maintain its "extremely accommodative" monetary policy. GBP/USD edged up 8 pips to 1.2399. U.K. data showed that retail sales declined 1.0% on month in December (vs +0.3% expected).AUD/USD rose 63 pips to 0.6973.USD/CHF gained 42 pips to 0.9203, while USD/CAD fell 89 pips to 1.3377.Over the weekend, Bitcoin continued its recent rally striking $23,000, the highest level since August.Morning TradingIn Asian trading hours, EUR/USD advanced to 1.0895 and GBP/USD rose to 1.2425.Meanwhile, USD/JPY retreated to 129.15.Gold bounced to $1,933.Bitcoin held gains at $22,765.Expected TodayThe eurozone's January consumer confidence index is estimated at -17.0.In the U.S., leading index is expected to drop 0.7% on month in December.           UK MARKET NEWS           Endeavour Mining, a mining company, announced that 4Q gold production grew 4% on quarter to 355,000 ounces. Full-year output was 3% lower than the prior year at 1.4 million ounces, while all-in sustaining cost increased 5% to 928 dollars per ounce. The company expects 2023 production of 1.325 - 1.425 million ounces and all-in sustaining cost of 940 - 995 dollars per ounce.Retail, auto & parts and chemicals shares fell most in London on Thursday.From a relative strength vs FTSE 100 point of view, BAE Systems (+1.16% to 853.2p) crossed above its 50-day moving average.From a technical point of view, Ashtead Group (+1.32% to 4995p) crossed above its 50-day moving average.From a technical point of view, AstraZeneca (-1.93% to 11200p) crossed under its 50-day moving average.           ECONOMIC CALENDAR           Time Event Forecast Importance   10:00 CB Leading Index MoM (Dec) -0.7% LOW     11:30 3-Month Bill Auction   LOW     11:30 6-Month Bill Auction   LOW                                     NEWS SENTIMENT           Bayer AG BAYN : XETRA 56.39 EUR -1.83% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Tesco PLC TSCO : LSE 247.90 GBp +0.16% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   Rio Tinto PLC RIO : LSE 6,213.00 GBp +1.92% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   National Grid PLC NG. : LSE 1,035.00 GBp +1.27% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   AstraZeneca PLC AZN : LSE 11,200.00 GBp -4.08% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Positive       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                                   BP PLC BP. : LSE 475.85 GBp -1.07% In the last 5 days         NEWS SENTIMENT (24H) Very Negative       TECHNICAL SCORE Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term                           TECHNICAL VIEWS           EUR/USD Intraday: the bias remains bullish.   Pivot: 1.0855   Our preference: Long positions above 1.0855 with targets at 1.0945 & 1.0960 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Below 1.0855 look for further downside with 1.0835 & 1.0820 as targets.   Comment: The RSI shows upside momentum.                     Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex)‎ (H3)‎ Intraday: choppy.   Pivot: 4167.00   Our preference: Short positions below 4167.00 with targets at 4124.00 & 4104.00 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Above 4167.00 look for further upside with 4184.00 & 4205.00 as targets.   Comment: As long as 4167.00 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.                     Brent (ICE)‎ (H3)‎ Intraday: towards 88.90.   Pivot: 86.20   Our preference: Long positions above 86.20 with targets at 87.80 & 88.90 in extension.   Alternative scenario: Below 86.20 look for further downside with 85.50 & 84.60 as targets.   Comment: The RSI advocates for further advance.        

Let's see what Peter Garnry, Head of Equity at Saxo Bank, said about trends in AI investement in 2023 and Google stock expectations amid US Justice Department second antitrust lawsuit against the company. What are the trends in AI investment in 2023? Any specific industry investors are seeking?  AI as a technology has many different branches. The self-driving branch of AI has seen much lower investments over the past year as the technology has been slowing down remaining far from Level 5 autonomy driving. Other branches of AI like the large language models such as the newly released ChatGPT are seeing massive investments and Microsoft's $10bn investment underscores this.   Read next: GBP/USD Pair Is Struggling To Extend Previous Highs, EUR/USD Pair Continued Its Gains| FXMAG.COM The talk about ChatGPT and its potential threat to Google's search engine business is real and has increased the investment risk for Alphabet, but Alphabet's AI unit DeepMind has already proclaimed that it will release this year its competing product to ChatGPT. The technology is in itself revolutionary, but it is patent protected and large language models (LLM) can be copied, which is what DeepMind is pursuing. The real challenge is the engineering part in order to scale fast queries and responses on top of the huge costs of training the LLM. The jury will be out for a long time whether Microsoft overpaid for this technology. What are the expectations on the Google stocks moving forward, in the context of the U.S. Justice Department second antitrust lawsuit against it? Alphabet is still a strong business that has doubled its revenue and profits since 2018. Antitrust lawsuits are generally part of the operating environment for large US technology companies and as such it is not something that worries investors. What worries investors about Alphabet is the general slowdown in the economy that will hit the online advertising business with lower prices, and then ChatGPT from OpenAI which has the potential to uproot Google's search engine business. Microsoft's recent $10bn investment into OpenAI and its ChatGPT technology is seen as an offense move against Alphabet and its Google business. However, Alphabet's AI unit DeepMind has already proclaimed that it will release its competitor to ChatGPT so the impact from ChatGPT on Alphabet's businesses might be limited, but the risks have definitely gone up for investors in Alphabet.

Stocks linked with AI and stocks of companies which are commonly known to have invested in such technologies are arousing investors' interest, while at FXMAG we wonder if the AI isn't another bubble. Let's hear from Ramesh Mungara (VT Markets). Ramesh Mungara (VT Markets): It is important to note that predicting market trends and bubbles is a complex task that involves many factors, including economic conditions, investor sentiment, and technological advancements. The global artificial intelligence market size was valued at USD 136.55 billion in 2022 and is projected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 37.3% from 2023 to 2030. The continuous research and innovation directed by tech giants are driving the adoption of advanced technologies in industry verticals, such as automotive, healthcare, retail, finance, and manufacturing. It is also important to note that the AI market is not a single entity, but rather a collection of different technologies and applications that are being developed and deployed in various industries. Some of these technologies may see more rapid growth than others, and some may experience a period of hype before their potential impact is fully realized. Tech giants like Amazon.com, Inc.; Google LLC; Apple Inc.; Facebook; International Business Machines Corporation; and Microsoft are investing significantly in the research and development of AI AI is proven to be a significant revolutionary element of the upcoming digital era. Tech giants like Amazon.com, Inc.; Google LLC; Apple Inc.; Facebook; International Business Machines Corporation; and Microsoft are investing significantly in the research and development of AI. Whilst North America accounts for 43% of market share for 2022, it is the Asia Pacific region that is forecasted and expected to grow the most (42%) from years 2023 to 2030. For the rest of this year however, the steady growth path the AI market has taken, it is forecasted to grow by another $42.4 billion. AI is proven to be a significant revolutionary element of the upcoming digital era Read next: One of Ueda's main priorities is to achieve the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target, which has eluded the central bank for years| FXMAG.COM The significant investment made into AI will certainly yield favourable results. The AI market remains relatively new to global investors and like most new markets, there will be optimism and opportunities for both long term investors and short-term speculators. It's longevity and true success however will only be realized over time. While there is always the possibility of a bubble in any market, it is also possible that the growth in the AI market is driven by real demand and the potential benefits that these technologies can offer. It is up to investors to carefully evaluate the opportunities and risks in the market and make informed decisions based on their own analysis and research.

UBS bought Credit Suisse (CS) in a government-brokered deal for 0.76 cents of franc per share, or CHF3bn in total.  The Swiss National Bank (SBN) offered UBS $100 billion in liquidity to make sure that the takeover would go smoothly, and Swiss government offered 9 billion francs guarantee on CS losses. The deal triggered a complete write-down of all CS's additional tier 1 bonds.   US dollar weakened and US futures opened in the positive but reversed losses while the Japanese Nikkei fell 1.42%, Hang Seng dropped more than 3%.  The next few hours of trading will give us a better picture on whether the crisis is contained. In theory, there is no reason for the Credit Suisse crisis to extend, as what triggered the last quake for Credit Suisse was a confidence crisis – which doesn't concern UBS - a bank outside of the turmoil, with, in addition, ample liquidity and guarantee from the SNB and the government.   Fed decision time!  So, if all goes well, shaky days across banks will soon be left behind and investors could concentrate on the Federal Reserve (Fed) decision.   One thing is important to note: the Fed's Quantitative Tightening (QT) was clearly out of the window since the Silicon Vally Bank (SVB) debacle. The Fed's balance sheet ticked higher last week, to help easing stress across banks.   But the QT and last week's emergency intervention are conceptionally different.  And more interestingly, while we could think that the reverse-QT, could have some negative implications for inflation – because the Fed is adding liquidity into the system - an index on financial conditions in the US suggests that the financial conditions have tightened sharply since last week, to the tightest levels since last fall and that could be an argument for the Fed to pause its rate hikes. Read next: UBS buys Credit Suisse for $3.2bn. Last week was the worst one for equity markets in 2023| FXMAG.COM   But perhaps not from this week. The expectation for this week's meeting is still a 25bp hike from the Fed. Activity on Fed funds futures gives around 60% chance for a 25bp hike this Wednesday.   The March dot plot and Powell's accompanying statement will be as important as the rate decision. On the data front, US short-term inflation expectations fell in March to the lowest levels since 2021. That's excellent news for the Fed's inflation battle as inflation expectations have a material impact on where inflation, itself, is headed.   A boon for the Big Tech  The banking turmoil has been a boon for the tech stocks last week. The sharp fall in rate hike expectations which resulted in a sharp fall in yields drove more than $500 billion in market value to Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon last week.   Microsoft rallied more than 15%, Amazon gained almost 15% as well and flirted with the $100 psychological mark. Same with Google, it also gained around 15% and closed the week above the $100 for the first time since the beginning of February, while Apple added 6%.   And Bitcoin, which has a strong correlation with tech stocks, gained 45% since the March 10 dip – and more importantly, showed that it could act as a hedge to a global bank stress.   It's yet to be seen whether the Big Tech could hold on to their gains if the Fed brings its inflation battle back on the table.  Oversold.  Crude oil kicked off the week under pressure, below the $70pb level as the bank stress weigh on global growth prospects and sent the price of a barrel below this psychological level. The RSI indicator suggests that the American crude stepped into oversold market conditions, meaning that crude oil has been sold too fast in a too short period of time, and a positive correction would be healthy at the current levels.

Alphabet Q2 23 – 26/07 Google owner Alphabet also reported a solid set of Q1 results, driven by an uptick in advertising and increased demand for its cloud services. Total revenues of $69.8bn, and profits of $15.05bn, a modest decline from the same quarter last year, but above forecasts of $1.07c at $1.17c a share.   Cloud services saw an increase in revenue to $7.45bn, which helped offset modest declines in advertising and YouTube revenues. YouTube revenue fell 2.6% to $6.69bn, while advertising came in at $54.55bn.     The company also announced a $70bn share buyback, while also announcing it was taking a $2bn charge in respect of severance costs for the 12,000 job losses reported earlier this year, as well as another $564bn on top in relation to reduced office space.         

Fed set to raise rates to a 22 year high   European markets have seen a cautiously positive start to the week, buoyed by hopes of further stimulus measures from Chinese authorities in the wake of recent poor economic data. The FTSE100 has been a key beneficiary of this, putting in a two-month high yesterday.   The modest improvement in sentiment has also been helped in some part by the recent retreat in short term yields which is being driven by the hope that central banks won't have to hike rates as aggressively as thought a few weeks ago. Both German and UK 2-year yields have fallen sharply from their highs this month on this basis, helped by inflation which appears to be slowing more quickly than expected.     US markets have also put together a strong run of gains with the Dow and S&P500 hitting their highest levels since April 2022, on the back of optimism that the start of this week's earnings numbers will live up to the high expectations place on them.   Last night's initial reaction to the numbers from Microsoft, and Google owner Alphabet would suggest that optimism might be justified against a backdrop of a still resilient US economy, and a Federal Reserve that looks set to be close to the end of its rate hiking cycle.           Today's expected 25bps Fed rate hike, after last month's pause, looks set to be the last rate rise this year, whatever Fed policymakers would have you believe.   We may hear officials try and make the case for at least one more between now and the end of the year but given recent trends around US inflation its quite likely that PPI will go negative in July.   While Powell will try and make the case for further rate hikes, his time would be better spent in making the case for rates remaining higher for longer, and projecting when the FOMC expected the 2% target to be met. Core prices remain too high even with headline CPI at 3%, and it is here that the Fed will likely focus its and the market's attention.     If headline CPI continues to fall in the way, it has been doing the Fed will struggle to convince the markets that it would continue hiking rates against such a backdrop.   As things stand markets are already pricing in the prospect that this will be the last rate rise in the current hiking cycle given recent declines in the US dollar and US yields. With the next Fed meeting coming in September the market will have to absorb two more inflation reports and two more jobs' reports. Nonetheless the Fed will be keen to prevent the market pricing in rate cuts which was one of the key challenges earlier this year.   With inflation slowing and the jobs market resilient the US economy is currently in a bit of a goldilocks moment. This will be the challenge for Powell today, as he tries to steer the market into believing that the Fed could hike rates some more. We also shouldn't forget that we will get fresh messaging at the end of August at the Jackson Hole annual symposium.     EUR/USD – retreated from the 1.1275 area which is 61.8% retracement of the 1.2350/0.9535 down move, with the next key support at the 1.0980 level.  Currently have resistance at the 1.1120 area.   GBP/USD – appears to have found a base at 1.2795/00, breaking a run of 7 daily losses. While above the 50-day SMA the uptrend from the March lows remains intact with the next resistance at the 1.3020 area.     EUR/GBP – last week's failure at the 0.8700 area has seen the euro slip back, with the risk that we could revisit the recent lows at 0.8500/10.   USD/JPY – the rebound from the 200-day SMA at 137.20, appears to have run out of steam at the 142.00 area, however the bias remains for a move lower while below the recent highs of 145.00.   FTSE100 is expected to open 10 points lower at 7,681   DAX is expected to open 25 points higher at 16,236   CAC40 is expected to open 35 points lower at 7,380  

Microsoft falls, Google jumps, Fed decides Surprise, surprise: Microsoft failed to meet investor expectations when it announced its Q2 results yesterday. Both revenue and earnings beat expectations, but the company reported a decelerating demand for its cloud computing services to 26%, and projected Azure to grow between 25%-26% for the current quarter. We are far from the 35% growth that we got used to in the good old days. Microsoft stock plunged up to 4% in the afterhours trading. Alphabet on the other hand a strong quarter for its search business advertisement, hinting that Google search withstood so far with the AI competition and its cloud business posted a 28% growth, more than Microsoft's. Google shares jumped 6% after the bell. Elsewhere, Snap tanked almost 20% as the overall sales declined and the forecasts remained short of analyst expectations, while GM lost 3.50% yesterday after raising its earnings forecast. But there is a catch: the forecast holds only if the workers don't go on a strike, and according to Evercore ISI, the chances of a strike is about 50-50. Today, Meta, Coca-Cola and Boeing will be among the big names that will report their earnings. The S&P500 advanced to the highest levels since April 2022, while Nasdaq 100 was up by 0.73% yesterday.    IMF raises global growth outlook  Zooming out, the IMF raised its outlook for the world economy this year and it now expects the global GDP to expand 3% in 2023. But it also warned that Germany will probably be the only G7 economy to suffer an economic contraction this year. Of course, the IMF also warned that there are some risks to their optimistic forecast, including the higher interest rates, the Chinese recovery that doesn't come, the debt distress and shocks from war and climate related disasters. But all in all, the US economy will likely end this year as the champion of soft landing – if all goes well.   I insist - if all goes well - because PacWest has been the latest US regional bank to succumb to this year's bank stress and its shares plunged 27% after Banc of California agreed to buy it.     Decision time!  Anyway, positiveness around the US economy is obviously giving some hawkish ideas to the Federal Reserve (Fed), which will likely announce another 25bp hike today, and warn that there could be more in the store. The US 2-year yield is in a wait-and-see more near the 4.90% level, either it will go back above the 5% with a hawkish Fed statement or it will retreat toward the 50-DMA, near the 4.65%, with a reasonably hawkish Fed statement, if the Fed opts for another 'skip' for example. The US dollar index pushes higher as expectations for other central banks soften due to the softer-than-expected economic data suggesting softer action from the likes of European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) in the coming months. The EURUSD continued its nosedive yesterday on IMF's less than ideal Germany outlook and the news that corporate loan demand plunged by the most on record in Q2, as higher rates started to bite European businesses.   Unfortunately, however, inflation expectations are getting stronger globally as the rising energy and crop prices hint that the upcoming inflation figures won't be a piece of cake. The barrel of US crude flirted with the $80pb level on Chinese stimulus hopes and the pricing of a soft landing, while wheat futures continue rising along with the escalating tensions in the Black Sea and Danube. Corn and soybean futures rise as well as hot weather in the US belt is adding to the positive pressure for corn.     By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank  

The AI race between the US and China Vladimir Putin said in 2017 that whoever becomes the leader in AI will become the ruler of the world. Russian leaders are experienced in hyperbolic language, so this prediction should naturally be discounted, but AI will likely play a crucial role in the great power competition of the future. Reading articles about technology and AI from those years around 2017, it is clear that the world thought China was either leading the AI race or at least had the speed to overtake the US in a few years. Surprisingly, it turned out, that the US was leading everyone else, as AI systems such as OpenAI’s GPT-4 and Google’s Bard are crushing AI systems from China across many benchmark tests. As we described in our previous Quarterly Outlook, the future will be dictated by what we call the fragmentation game, which is essentially a strategic geopolitical dynamic fragmenting the world into regions with a higher degree of independence and with national security interests driving policies around four pillars: defence, energy, technology, and commodities. The fragmentation game is mostly a game evolving around how the physical world operates and it is a game in which Europe and the US are aiming to reduce China’s role in their respective supply chains. While it causes headwinds for China, it creates tailwinds for other countries, which is well crystalised in our chart showing Chinese equity market performance vs those countries that are benefitting.     Inside the fragmentation game framework, semiconductors also play a crucial role because they are the very foundation for AI chips. The capital expenditures on semiconductors will create an investment boom in the US and Europe over the next decade, as the regions will increase domestic production to limit dependencies on Asia. This dynamic will benefit semiconductor equipment makers as their revenue figures are linked to capital expenditures on semiconductors. Regardless of the rollercoaster experience investors will have with AI stocks, one thing is certain: this technology will be an important technological battleground between the US and China, and many opportunities and threats will arise in the years to come.  

In the ever-evolving landscape of the business world, it's essential to stay updated on the latest developments and trends that can shape industries and markets. This week's business roundup covers a wide range of topics, from the abrupt end of Aaron Rodgers' season with the Jets to central banks' strategies to combat inflation. Let's delve into the most significant highlights and their potential impacts.   Aaron Rodgers' Short-Lived Stint with the Jets Aaron Rodgers, one of the NFL's most prominent quarterbacks, saw his season with the Jets come to an abrupt end after just four plays. This unexpected turn of events has left football fans and analysts puzzled, raising questions about the future of the Jets' quarterback situation.   Google's Defense Against Anti-Competitive Practices Amid ongoing scrutiny, Google has defended itself against allegations of anti-competitive practices. The tech giant argues that its continued dominance in the search market is a result of its commitment to quality, pushing back against accusations of unfair competition.   Central Banks Pondering Higher Rates to Tackle Inflation In response to rising inflation, central banks are contemplating the possibility of keeping interest rates higher for an extended period. This strategic shift could have far-reaching implications for financial markets and economic stability.   AI Transforming iPhones and Apple Watches Artificial intelligence continues to reshape the tech landscape, with AI-driven advancements making their mark on iPhones and Apple Watches. These innovations have the potential to enhance user experiences and open up new possibilities for Apple's product lineup.   Ford's Ambitious Plans for F-150 Hybrid Pickup Production Ford is gearing up to double its production of F-150 hybrid pickups, a bold move in the electric vehicle market. As consumer demand for eco-friendly options grows, this expansion could position Ford as a key player in the hybrid vehicle sector.   Leadership Shake-Up at BP as CEO Resigns BP, one of the world's leading energy companies, faces a leadership change as its CEO steps down due to work-related relationships. This development raises questions about corporate governance and the challenges faced by major players in the energy sector.   Earnings Report Highlights While these overarching topics dominate the business landscape, it's essential to keep an eye on earnings reports from key companies. Upcoming reports from Cracker Barrel, Adobe, and Lennar will provide valuable insights into their financial performance and potential market impacts. In a rapidly changing business environment, staying informed about these developments is crucial for investors, professionals, and anyone interested in the world of finance and technology. Keep a close watch on these evolving stories as they continue to shape the business landscape. (For more in-depth analysis and insights, stay connected with our sponsor, Mercury, and their article on the metrics that VCs and investors consider when evaluating startups.)

The global financial markets have witnessed significant turbulence in recent times, with a confluence of factors contributing to this uncertainty. As we delve into the intricate web of market dynamics, we'll explore the implications of events such as Lego's surprising decision to abandon oil-free bricks, China's gold buying spree affecting bullion pricing, and Morgan Stanley's prediction that the Federal Reserve has paused its interest rate hikes. These developments, among others, have sent shockwaves through various sectors, leaving investors and analysts grappling with what lies ahead.   A Rollercoaster Week for US Stocks The past week saw US stocks experiencing their most challenging period since March, triggered by the Federal Reserve's update. Both the S&P and Nasdaq indexes retreated by 2.9% and 3.6%, respectively. This downturn in the market was mirrored globally, with the MSCI World Index recording a 2.67% slide, its sharpest decline since March. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index also suffered a substantial setback, losing 2.3%, positioning it for a 3% loss in the third quarter. These declines have sent shockwaves through the investment world, raising concerns about the overall health of the global economy.   Bond Yields and the Fed's Stance One of the key indicators of this market turbulence is the surge in 10-year US yields, marking their most substantial weekly rise since July. Over the last ten weeks, yields have risen in eight, and 10-year real yields have surpassed 2%. Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zenter has stated that the Federal Reserve is likely done with its rate hikes for the time being. These developments have left investors wondering about the impact on various asset classes and the broader economic landscape.   Earnings Reports to Watch As we navigate these turbulent financial waters, several earnings reports are on the horizon. Companies such as Costco, Cintas, Micron Technology, Jefferies, Nike, Accenture, BlackBerry, and Carnival Corporation are set to release their financial results. These reports will shed light on the performance and outlook of various sectors, providing critical insights into market trends.   Paradigm Shift in Bullion The bullion market is experiencing a paradigm shift driven by Chinese gold buying. This shift is having a profound impact on the pricing and demand for gold. Understanding this shift is crucial for investors and central banks alike, as gold has historically been a safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainty.   Thailand's Tech Investment Expectations Thailand is gearing up for substantial investments from tech giants like Tesla, Google, and Microsoft, with expectations totaling $5 billion, according to the Prime Minister. This influx of tech investment could transform the country's tech landscape and create opportunities for growth in the Southeast Asian region.   Lego's Surprising Decision In a surprising turn of events, Lego has decided to abandon its efforts to produce oil-free bricks. This move has garnered attention due to the increasing focus on sustainability and environmental responsibility in the corporate world. The implications of this decision go beyond just the toy industry, as it reflects broader concerns about the use of fossil fuels.   The recent market turbulence, influenced by various global factors, highlights the interconnectedness of the financial landscape. As we navigate these uncertain waters, staying informed about developments such as central bank policies, corporate decisions, and geopolitical events becomes increasingly critical. Investors and financial analysts must remain vigilant and adapt to changing market conditions to make informed decisions in these challenging times.

Elsewhere...  The nice jump in the Japanese yen pulled the dollar index lower yesterday. Of course, the EURJPY, GBPJPY and AUDJPY all made a similar move. The US bonds, on the other hand, were little changed yesterday – for once – as traders sat on their hands ahead of this week's much-awaited US jobs data, while technology stocks were on fire yesterday. Alphabet jumped more than 5% after Google released Gemini – the largest and most capable AI model it has ever built, and AMD jumped nearly 10% after the company unveiled a chip that will run AI software faster than rival products. But rival Nvidia was little hit by the news, as its chips gained 2.40% yesterday. The AI demand is big enough for everyone to benefit amply from it.   Today, all eyes are on the US jobs data.  According to a consensus of analyst estimates on Bloomberg, the US economy may have added 180'000 new nonfarm jobs in November, the pay may have risen slightly faster on a monthly basis, and the unemployment rate is seen steady at 3.9%. The fact that the data released earlier this week hinted at a clear loosening in the US jobs market makes many investors think that today's official data will also follow the loosening trend. If the data is soft enough, the rally in the US bonds could continue and the US 10-year yields could have a taste of the 4% psychological mark, while a stronger-than-expected figure could help scale back the dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations but could hardly bring the hawks back to the market before next week's FOMC decision.      

Elsewhere...  The nice jump in the Japanese yen pulled the dollar index lower yesterday. Of course, the EURJPY, GBPJPY and AUDJPY all made a similar move. The US bonds, on the other hand, were little changed yesterday – for once – as traders sat on their hands ahead of this week's much-awaited US jobs data, while technology stocks were on fire yesterday. Alphabet jumped more than 5% after Google released Gemini – the largest and most capable AI model it has ever built, and AMD jumped nearly 10% after the company unveiled a chip that will run AI software faster than rival products. But rival Nvidia was little hit by the news, as its chips gained 2.40% yesterday. The AI demand is big enough for everyone to benefit amply from it.   Today, all eyes are on the US jobs data.  According to a consensus of analyst estimates on Bloomberg, the US economy may have added 180'000 new nonfarm jobs in November, the pay may have risen slightly faster on a monthly basis, and the unemployment rate is seen steady at 3.9%. The fact that the data released earlier this week hinted at a clear loosening in the US jobs market makes many investors think that today's official data will also follow the loosening trend. If the data is soft enough, the rally in the US bonds could continue and the US 10-year yields could have a taste of the 4% psychological mark, while a stronger-than-expected figure could help scale back the dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations but could hardly bring the hawks back to the market before next week's FOMC decision.    

The Finish Line By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank   Here we are, on the last trading day of the year. This year was completely different than what was expected. We were expecting the US to enter recession, but the US printed around 5% growth in the Q3. We were expecting the Chinese post-Covid reopening to boost the Chinese growth and fuel global inflation, but a year after the end of China's zero-Covid measures, China is suffocating due to an unexpected deflation and worsening property crisis. We were expecting last year's negative correlation between stocks and bonds to reverse – as recession would boost bond appetite but batter stocks. None happened.  The biggest takeaway of this year is the birth of ChatGPT which propelled AI right into the middle of our lives. Nasdaq 100 stocks close the year at an ATH, Nvidia – which was the biggest winner of this year's AI rally dwarfed everything that compared to it. Nvidia shares gained more than 350% this year. That's more than twice the performance of Bitcoin – which also had a good year mind you.   Besides Nvidia, ChatGPT's sugar daddy Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta, Google and Tesla – the so-called Magnificent 7 generated almost all of the S&P500 and Nasdaq100's returns this year. And thanks to this few handfuls of stocks, Nasdaq100 is set for its best year since 1999 following a $7 trillion surge.   The million-dollar question is what will happen next year. Of course, we don't know, nobody knows, and our crystal balls completely missed the AI rally that marked 2023, yet the general expectation is a cool down in the technology rally, and a rebalancing between the big tech stocks and the S&P493 on narrowing profit lead for the Magnificent 7 compared to the rest of the index in 2024. T  The other thing is, the S&P500's direction next year is unclear as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to start chopping the interest rates, with the first rate cut expected to happen as early as much with more than 85% probability. So what will the Fed cuts mean for the S&P500? Looking at what happened in the past, the S&P500 typically rises after the first rate cut, but the sustainability of the gains will depend on the underlying economic fundamentals. Lower rates are good for the S&P500 valuations EXCEPT when the economy enters recession within the next 12-months. So that backs the idea that I have been trying to convey here since weeks: lower US yields will be supportive of the S&P500 valuations as long as the economy remains strong, and earnings expectations hold up.    For now, they do. The S&P500 earnings will certainly end a bit better than flat this year, and the EPS is expected to rise by more than 10% next year. The Magnificent 7 are expected to post around 22% EPS growth next year. But note that, these expectations are mostly priced in, so yes, there will still be a hangover and a correction period after a relentless two-month rally triggered a broad-based risk euphoria among investors. The S&P500 is about to print its 9th consecutive week of gains – which would be its longest winning streak in 20 years.  In the FX, the US dollar index rebounded yesterday as treasury yields rose following a weak sale of 7-year notes. But the US dollar is still set for its worse year since 2020. Gold prepares to close the year near ATH, the EURUSD will likely reach the finish line above 1.10 and the USDJPY having tested but haven't been able to clear the 140 support. In the coming weeks, I would expect the EURUSD to ease on rising expectations from the ECB doves, and/or on the back of a retreat from the Fed doves. We could see a minor rebound in the USDJPY if the Japanese manage to calm down the BoJ hawks' ambitions. Overall, I wouldn't be surprised to see the US dollar recover against most majors in the first weeks of next year.  In the energy, crude oil remains downbeat. The barrel of American crude couldn't extend rally after breaking the $75pb earlier this week, and that failure to add on to the gains is now bringing the oil bears back to the market. The barrel of US crude sank below the $72pb as the US oil inventories slumped by more than 7mio barrels last week, much more than a 2-mio-barrel decline expected. The latter brought forward the demand concerns and washed out the supply worries due to the Red Sea tensions. Note that crude oil is set for its biggest yearly decline since 2020; OPEC's efforts to curb production and the rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remained surprisingly inefficient to boost appetite in oil this year. 

2023 key highlights & cross-assets performances in the past 2 years Fig 1: Cross assets performances as of 29 Dec 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)   The US Federal Reserve’s stance of keeping interest rates higher for a longer period in the first half of 2023 triggered a resilient US dollar environment in the absence of a recession scenario in the US that led the US stock market to outperform the rest of the world. The outperformance of the US stock market in 2023 was led by the Magnificent 7 (Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet/Google, Nvidia, Meta, Tesla) mega-cap technology stocks that have stronger balance sheets and are skewed toward “AI productivity” theme play. Also, these 7 stocks have a significant combined market-cap weightage in the Nasdaq 100 that recorded an annual gain of 54% in 2023 (2.3 times S&P 500’s 2023 returns). US regional banking crisis that led to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank & First Republic Bank due to poor balance sheet risk management reinforced by outsized mark-to-market losses on longer-term US Treasuries (higher US Treasury yields via Fed’s tightening monetary policy). It also indirectly led to the demise of Credit Suisse which eventually was brought over by rival UBS. The US regional banking crisis was just a blip, negated by a liquidity backstop orchestrated by the US Treasury; the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP). The risk-off behaviour in Q3 reversed abruptly in Q4 to a raging risk-on FOMO behaviour triggered by a significant easing liquidity condition in the US; the rapid drawdown of the Fed’s overnight reverse repo facility from a peak of US$2.55 trillion in December 2022 to US$683.25 billion (-74%) for the week of 11 Dec 2023 as money market funds that choose to invest their surplus cash in short-term US Treasury bills instead (rather than parking in overnight reverse repos facility) which in turn helped to fund the US Treasury general account (also US Treasury’s issuance switch from longer-term Treasuries to T-bills for funding needs). A rise in the expectations of a Fed’s dovish pivot where the first Fed funds rate cut is priced in to come as early in March 2024 indicated by the CME FedWatch tool that led to a slide of 120 basis points (bps) in the US 10-year Treasury yield from a 16-year high of 5% printed on 23 October 2023, synchronized with a weakening US dollar that kickstarted a rally in almost all asset classes (equities, bonds, gold, cryptocurrencies) except oil & China-related risk assets. China’s post-Covid re-opening bullish theme play on China and Hong Kong stock markets fizzled out after Q1 due to a heightened deflationary risk spiral caused by a persistent weak property market in China. The Hang Seng Index ended 2023 with a fourth consecutive annual loss of -14% (prior years’ losses of -15% in 2022, -14% in 2021 & -3% in 2020); its worst performance streak since 2000. Due to China’s structural weakness (deflationary risk spiral), China, and Hong Kong stock markets failed to respond to the cyclical upswing in risk assets during Q4 2023 reinforced by renewed US dollar weakness. The CSI 300 and Hang Seng Index recorded losses of -7% and -4.3% respectively in Q4 whereas the MSCI Emerging Markets Ex China exchange-traded fund gained by +12.5% over the same period, slightly outperformed the US S&P 500’s Q4 return of +11.24% The Japanese yen (JPY) plummeted to a 33-year low against the US dollar in Q3 2023 due to the Bank of Japan (BoJ)’s newly appointed Governor Ueda’s reluctance to offer firm guidance to normalize its short-term negative interest rate policy despite Japan’s core inflation rate had exceeded BoJ’s 2% target for the 20th consecutive month. Emerging themes for 2024 A potentially weaker US dollar due to the shrinkage of the US Treasury yield spread premium against the rest of the world, and a potential major JPY strength revival triggered by internal economic factors (service prices in Tokyo rose at their fastest pace since 1994 to a record gain of 3% y/y in November 2023, indicating an increase in the odds of sustainable wage-driven inflationary growth), political and business groups’ mounting pressures against a weaker JPY. The rest of the world equities may outperform the US stock market due to a weaker US dollar environment. Keep a lookout on China for potentially more “generous” fiscal and monetary policy stimulus measures that may stoke positive animal spirits in the short to medium term for China and Hong Kong stock markets. The stepped-up dovish expectations on the upcoming Fed’s interest rate cut cycle compiled with rosy earnings forecasts by analysts polled by FactSet that are projecting an earnings growth of +11.5% y/y for the US S&P 500 in CY 2024, a significant improvement from an expected CY 2023 earnings growth of just 0.6% which in turn have indicated another year of goldilocks scenario for the US economy. In contrast, the hastened speed of 6 interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2024 projected by market participants in the interest rates futures market also implied a probable US recession-liked scenario in 2024. In addition, the latest November 2023 data of the Conference Board US Leading Economic Index (LEI) has continued to flash a recession signal reinforced by weakness in the housing and labour market. If a recession hits the US economy in the second half of 2024, earnings downgrades are likely to materialize and the initial projected S&P 500 CY 2024 earnings growth rate of +11.5% is likely to be tapered to the downside which in turn may trigger a risk-off scenario that can overshadow the initial positive feedback loop from easing liquidity conditions. Potential heightened geopolitical tension between the US and China that may also spark a risk-off scenario in the latter part of 2024; the recently concluded China’s annual economic work plan conference attended by the top leadership stated that 2024 top priority will be on building a modern industrial system with a focus on developing cutting-edge technologies and artificial intelligence. Making high-tech industrialization a key priority in 2024 is likely to invite more scrutinization from neo-conservative US politicians that may put a strain on the current US-China relationship in the run-up to the November 2024 US presidential election. There is likely to be intense debate among the presidential candidates and finger-pointing again at China’s current industrialization policy that needs to be “neutralized” due to its potential national security threat to the US. Chart Of The Year – a potential major top in USD/JPY Fig 2: USD/JPY major trend as of 2 Jan 2024 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) The price actions of USD/JPY have declined by 8% to hit an intraday low of 140.25 in December 2023 after a bearish reaction from its 151.95 long-term pivotal resistance printed in mid-November 2023. The USD/JPY has traced out a potential impending major bearish reversal “Double Top” configuration considering the developments of its price actions from October 2022 to November 2023. In addition, the weekly MACD trend indicator has flashed out a bearish divergence condition over the same period (October 2022 to November 2023) which indicates the major uptrend phase from the March 2020 low of 101.18 has started to lose upside momentum which in turn increases the odds of a multi-month corrective decline to unfold next. A breakdown with a weekly close below 137.65 support exposes the next major support zone of 130.70/127.10 (also the neckline of the “Double Top” & 50% Fibonacci retracement of the prior major uptrend phase from March 2020 low to November 2023 high). On the other hand, a clearance above 151.95 invalidates the bearish scenario to see the next major resistance coming in at 159.30 in the first step.