gold chart

Oil prices leap on EU oil ban

Oil prices leapt higher overnight as markets digested the impact of the proposed EU ban on Russian oil imports. Additionally, the OPEC+ JTC is indicating that there will be no change in the monthly schedule of production increases, with some members in fact noting that China’s demand has slumped.

Brent crude rose by 4.05% to USD 111.10 overnight, with WTI climbing by 3.90% to USD 107.55 a barrel. ​ In Asia, Brent and WTI have had a muted session, adding just 0.50% each to USD 110.60 and USD 108.10 respectively. In the bigger picture, Brent crude is still in a broader USD 100.00 to USD 120.00 range, and WTI in a USD 95.00 to USD 115.00 range. Only a weekly close above or below those levels signals a new directional move.

Overall, we remain in a situation where the Ukraine/Russia conflict and the inability of OPEC+ to even meet their pre-agreed quotas is keeping spot prices tight, while China’s covid-zero-induced slowdown is acting to cap price

UK Budget Announcement - Commentary

Inflation Advances, and So Does Gold — Except That It Doesn’t

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 19.10.2021 19:53
Inflation accelerated again in September, and gold prices (finally!) reacted positively. Bad news: the rally was short-lived. Unfortunately, I was right. One month ago, when commenting on the CPI readings for August, I wrote that inflation “doesn’t have to go away anytime soon” and that the economic developments suggest that “inflation isn’t disappearing just yet.” And here we are, one month later, with inflation accelerating again. Indeed, the latest BLS report on inflation shows that the CPI rose 0.4% in September after increasing 0.3% in August. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, also accelerated to 0.2% in September from 0.1% in the preceding month. On an annual basis, inflation has also accelerated a bit, as the chart below shows. The overall index soared 5.4% in September, following 5.2% in the previous month (numbers seasonally adjusted). It was the biggest surge since July 2008 – and that was in the midst of the Great Recession. Meanwhile, the core CPI edged up from 3.98% to 4.04%. So, inflation is not transitory. On the contrary, the chart above shows that the June overall CPI reading functioned as a peak only temporarily. The fact that inflation rebounded to a new high is a final blow to the ‘transitory inflation’ narrative. Therefore, my warnings that inflation doesn’t have to go away anytime soon remain valid. Actually, my arguments have been strengthened by the recent data. Why? Well, inflation intensified despite the fact that several subindexes declined in September. As we can read in the BLS report: The index for airline fares continued to fall sharply, decreasing 6.4 percent over the month after falling 9.1 percent in August. The apparel index also decreased in September, declining 1.1 percent over the month after rising 0.4 percent in the previous month. The index for used cars and trucks fell 0.7 percent this month, continuing to decline after it decreased 1.5 percent in August. So, why didn’t inflation decrease? After all, the mainstream narrative was that inflation was caused by a few categories strongly linked to the pandemic and the reopening that followed. Well, here we are; these categories fell, but inflation rose. The answer to this puzzle is: the Fed officials and the pundits were wrong. Inflation is not limited to just a few categories because of the supply-chain disruptions, it’s a broad-based phenomenon caused by the increase in the broad money supply and in the monetary demand. More specifically, the declines in some subindexes were counterweighted by increases in others, in particular by the significant acceleration in the shelter index. As one can see in the chart below, the shelter index jumped 3.2% in September, much faster than the 2.8% observed in August. This acceleration is perfectly in line with my analyses. In September, I wrote: Secondly, the index for shelter – the biggest component of the CPI – has been rising gradually since February 2021, and it accelerated from 2.79% in July to 2.82% in August (…) As a reminder, home prices – which are not covered by the CPI – have been surging recently, which should translate into further increases in the index for shelter. Oh boy, I hate to be right! However, I’m afraid that consumer inflation could increase even further in the near future. Careful examination of the money supply growth implies that the real peak in inflation might occur in Q1 2022. Given the upward trend in home prices, the shelter index could continue its upward march. Last but not least, the surging Producer Price Index (see the chart above) might also add to the inflationary pressure. Implications for Gold What does the September report on CPI imply for the gold market? Well, the theory remains the same: high inflation should be positive for gold, as it is considered an inflation hedge. Higher inflation also means lower real interest rates and a weaker greenback, which should support gold prices. However, elevated inflation wasn’t supportive for the yellow metal so far, as it strengthened the expectations of the Fed’s tightening cycle, creating downward pressure on gold prices. All in all, the September report (which showed continuously rising inflationary pressure) made investors rethink the Fed’s transitory argument. These worries pushed gold prices to their resistance level of $1,800 on Thursday, as the chart below shows. Unfortunately for the gold bulls, any hopes of a more prolonged rally were quickly quenched, as the price of gold declined on Friday. So, it seems that until the Fed tapers its quantitative easing, gold will remain under downward pressure. Nonetheless, when it finally happens, better times may come for gold. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Attempts To Rebound

Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Attempts To Rebound

Jing Ren Jing Ren 20.10.2021 09:08
Gold inched higher as the dollar index hit a two-week low. The latest rebound has been checked by the psychological level of 1800. With the RSI showing an overbought situation, short-term buyers were swift in taking profit from this resistance on the daily chart. The pullback has met buying interest over 1760. There is an expectation for sideways action in the next few hours as traders wait for a breakout. A deeper correction would test the floor at 1730, while a higher high may send the precious metal to the triple top at 1830. EURGBP breaks below support The sterling soared after BOE Governor Bailey said that the central bank may act to contain inflation. Sentiment has become increasingly bearish over the euro after its break below August’s low at 0.8450. A bearish MA cross on the daily chart indicates an acceleration to the downside. An oversold RSI has led to a limited rebound towards 0.8485, which may turn out to be an opportunity to sell into strength. 0.8350 near February 2020’s lows would be the next target when momentum traders jump in to bid up the pound. US 30 recovers to previous peak The Dow Jones rallies as investors look past macro concerns and focus on earnings instead. The break above the supply zone around 35000 has prompted the bears to cover. The index then went on to recoup most losses from the September sell-off. With the short-side out of the picture, sentiment might have turned around. 35500 is a major resistance and a bullish breakout would resume the uptrend for new all-time highs. As the RSI suggests an overextension, 35050 is fresh support in case of retracement.
USDX, Gold, Silver: A Confluence of Signs This Week

USDX, Gold, Silver: A Confluence of Signs This Week

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 20.10.2021 16:23
With silver outperforming and key supports for the USDX holding, what’s in store for the precious metals in the upcoming months? Yesterday’s session was informative. Very. I already indicated some of the specific developments during yesterday’s (pre-market) trading (and I talked about silver and bitcoin recently as well), but having the closing prices, and knowing what happened on a day-to-day basis adds a new dimension to the signals that we saw. Let’s jump into charts. What Was So Important About Yesterday? The key thing that happened yesterday was that silver rallied profoundly while gold stocks didn’t. The latter moved just a little higher, just like gold. This tells us that the rally has most likely either run its course completely or that its end is just around the corner. I’ve been emphasizing this many times before, but it’s so important (and so ignored) that I’m going to repeat it once again – silver tends to outperform in the final part of a rally in the precious metals market. This – by itself – is one of key indications that a top is just around the corner or that we have already seen one. Yesterday’s daily reversal in gold only adds to the bearish implications of the session. Despite the attempt to move much higher, gold ended the day a mere $4.80 higher. The key development, though, happened not in the precious metals market, but in the USD Index. Namely, the USD Index managed not to close back below the previous 2021 highs in terms of the closing prices. The U.S. currency did end the day lower, but it was after a recovery from a much bigger intraday decline. The August top in terms of the daily closing prices is 93.59, and while yesterday’s intraday lows was 93.49, the USDX closed the day at 93.73. The key support held and – obviously – that’s a bullish development for the USDX. Since the latter tends to move in the opposite way to the gold price and silver price, we can say that the above is bearish for the precious metals sector. The lower part of the above charts shows the correlation between the USDX and gold (based on the previous 30 trading days) and as you can see, the correlation is almost always negative, and usually strongly negative – below -0.5. As you can see in the above Correlation Matrix (second row from the top), gold is negatively correlated with the USD Index also in the medium term and in the long term, so this link is quite stable, even though there are exceptions (for example, at times gold shows strength despite the USD’s rallies and it indicates great buying opportunities for gold). The correlation now moved higher, but please note that we saw something similar (to an even bigger extent) in late July, and that was when gold and the USDX itself were performing similarly to what we saw recently. Even the RSI indicator (upper part of the chart) was close to 50 in both cases. Gold and silver are slightly up in today’s pre-market trading, but it doesn’t change any of the above. The USD Index is still above the highest daily close that we saw in August. Consequently, while yesterday’s session might have appeared to be something major, it turned out to be just a combination of factors that we saw at the final days of short-term rallies many times before. It seems that the medium-term downtrend will resume any day now. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chief Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Getting Back To Risky Assets As A Result Of Russian Move?

Against Bond Market Odds

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 25.10.2021 00:22
Such was the S&P 500 correction, how did you like it? The whiff of risk-off that I was looking for yesterday, was a very shallow one in stocks, and much deeper in real assets. What‘s remarkable about the stock market upswing, is that it was led by tech while value barely clung to its opening values – and yields rose yet again. But the dynamic is supposed to work the other way – even financials felt the pinch, but at least real estate rose. Another characteristic worth noting is that the dollar increased yesterday too, and stocks didn‘t mind. The VIX closed almost at 15, which is its lowest value since the beginning of Jul. S&P 500 indeed didn‘t hesitate at 4,520, and broke above similarly to the prior turning point (that wasn‘t) at 4,420. I‘m letting the open long S&P 500 profits run as rising yields aren‘t yet a problem for stocks, and inflation isn‘t still strong enough to break the bulls‘ back – but inflation expectations keep rising, and that‘s a factor once again underpinning precious metals. When a brief risk-off moment arrives though, commodities are to feel the pinch, and that‘s true also about silver as opposed to gold. Indeed yesterday, the yellow metal did much better than the white one. Copper corrected with a delay to the fresh LME trading measures, and quite profoundly given that the London stockpile represents only a day‘s worth of China factory copper consumption. The dust in the red metal hasn‘t yet settled, but black gold recovered smartly from the steep intraday drop to $81, dealing open oil profits – and the selling in oil stocks looks to be overdone on a daily basis. Finally, the Bitcoin setback I was looking for, happened, but doesn‘t spell the end of the crypto run – more cypto gains to enjoy. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 buyers stepped in right at the opening hours, and the daily candle and volume confirms they have the upper hand. Credit Markets Credit markets turned risk-off, and it‘s especially up to HYG to get its act together. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold paused while silver declined  and miners kept steady – that‘s a reasonably good translation of much deeper commodity woes yesterday. Nothing unexpected, I was looking for silver to be affected more than gold in such circumstances. Crude Oil Crude oil intraday dip was again bought, but the bears have left a better impression than on Wednesday. The proof of a reversal is though still elusive. Copper Copper undershooting Wednesday‘s lows isn‘t a good sign for the short-term – and neither is the rising volume. Short-term outperformance of the CRB Index is also history, and it remains to be seen where would the bulls put up a fight. Bitcoin and Ethereum The bears stepped in some more yesterday, and today‘s upswing is lacking full vigor – the Bitcoin consolidation would likely take a few days. Ethereum still on the rise is a good sign. Summary Stocks have briefly consolidated prior sharp gains, and fresh ATHs are approaching. Credit markets should regain bullish posture as well though – yesterday‘s setback needs to be reversed so as not to be building negative divergences on the way. Precious metals are improving, and stand to benefit while commodities recover from yesterday‘s setback. Much easier in oil than in copper. Cryptos remain largely unaffected, and are set to assume their ascent shortly.   Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.   Thank you,   Monica Kingsley Stock Trading Signals Gold Trading Signals Oil Trading Signals Copper Trading Signals Bitcoin Trading Signals www.monicakingsley.co mk@monicakingsley.co   * * * * * All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Seeks Support

Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Seeks Support

Jing Ren Jing Ren 28.10.2021 12:26
Gold treads water as markets await a slew of central bank decisions in the coming days. The recent break above the daily resistance at 1805 is a prerequisite for a bullish turnaround. However, the rally has met stiff selling pressure at the supply zone around 1813 which is at the origin of the September sell-off. Along with a repeatedly overbought RSI, a combination of profit-taking and fresh selling may weigh on the precious metal in the short term. 1777 is the immediate support and its breach would send the price to 1760. USDCAD pierces through supports The Canadian dollar surged after the Bank of Canada ended its QE. As the RSI from the daily chart showed an oversold situation, the greenback had attracted bargain hunters at its four-month low around 1.2300. However, it has given up all recent gains as it revisits the bottom. 1.2430 is now fresh resistance and the downtrend may resume. 1.2200 would be the next target as those who have been waiting for a catalyst join in. An oversold RSI has caused a temporary rebound which is likely to meet strong selling interest. USOIL retraces after overextension WTI crude tumbled after an unexpected surge in US inventories. Medium-term sentiment remains bullish, though an overbought RSI on the daily chart may prompt buyers to proceed with caution. A fall below 82.50 and then 81.00 has exacerbated profit-takings as late buyers rushed for the exit. 79.50 is the next support. A bearish breakout would extend the correction to 77.00 which was previously a resistance, making it an area of interest. An oversold RSI may trigger a rebound with 82.30 as a fresh resistance.
The Bank of Canada Ends QE, Plunging Gold Prices in CAD

The Bank of Canada Ends QE, Plunging Gold Prices in CAD

Arkadiusz Sieron Arkadiusz Sieron 28.10.2021 16:25
So, QE ended (so far in Canada, but the Fed will follow suit) and the termination plunged gold prices in Canadian dollars. Will this repeat globally? Finally! Yesterday (October 27, 2021), one central bank ended its quantitative easing program after gradually reducing the pace of asset purchases earlier this year. Don’t panic though - it wasn’t the Fed, nor the ECB, nor the Bank of Japan. It was the Bank of Canada. As we can read in the monetary policy statement: In light of the progress made in the economic recovery, the Governing Council has decided to end quantitative easing and keep its overall holdings of Government of Canada bonds roughly constant. Of course, the central bank didn’t say a word about a reduction of the size of its balance sheet. This is how the dovish bias works: central banks never return to the pre-crisis levels of interest rates or balance sheet. Anyway, I would like to focus on the fact that the central bank of Canada admitted that it underestimated the persistence of inflation, which could remain elevated next year: The recent increase in CPI inflation was anticipated in July, but the main forces pushing up prices – higher energy prices and pandemic-related supply bottlenecks – now appear to be stronger and more persistent than expected. More persistent and higher inflation implies sooner monetary policy tightening. The BoC signaled that it could hike its main policy interest rate in mid-2022: We remain committed to holding the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2% inflation target is sustainably achieved. In the Bank’s projection, this happens sometime in the middle quarters of 2022. The direct consequences of the Bank of Canada ending QE should be limited, as the BoC’s actions are not too meaningful for the global financial markets. However, yesterday’s decision is emblematic of the current shift among central banks from monetary easing into monetary tightening. Investors should be thus prepared for more persistent inflation and for a hawkish response of central banks. Interestingly, while the BoC has just completed its asset purchases program, the Fed is only going to start tapering its own quantitative easing program. It means that the US central bank is tardy and behind the curve (especially that inflation in Canada is lower than across the border). So, its reaction will have to be stronger in the future. The market expects the first hike in the federal funds rate to happen in June 2022, so also in the middle quarters of 2022, despite the Fed’s one-year lag behind the Bank of Canada. Gold may struggle until the Fed’s tightening cycle starts. You have been warned! Implications for Gold What does the end of Canadian quantitative easing imply for the gold market? Well, the direct impact on gold prices denominated in greenbacks should be minimal. However, the decision to stop QE exerted a huge impact on the price of gold denominated in the Canadian dollar. As the chart below shows, the price plunged yesterday from about 2228 CAD to C$2204 CAD within minutes. This drop may be a harbinger of what may happen in the international gold market when the Fed tightens its own monetary policy. Of course, the announcement of tapering at the November FOMC meeting is widely expected. However, please remember that the message of tapering could be accompanied by other hawkish signals as well. So, although gold has been moving upward recently (see the chart below), its struggles could continue for a while. The silver lining is that the drop in the gold price in CAD – although abrupt – wasn’t too deep overall and reversed quickly. To be clear, a 1% drop is relatively large, but it’s not a total disaster, especially given the prominence of the event. It seems that inflation worries currently provide support for gold prices. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Silver, patience pays

Silver, patience pays

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 08.11.2021 08:13
Here is what you should consider when asking why it isn’t trading even higher. First, after an initial up-leg like this, a trend is set in motion, but it is just the beginning of a trend. It needs time to develop. Most of the reasons debated this year when silver stepped into the limelight were the reasons the traders anticipated fueling the first leg. A big part is that it takes time until the public digests the market, which is ahead of reality, a speculative prognosis on how the future might look. There is a trickle-down effect until silver can build up its second leg. From an active market speculator perspective, inflation is real, but years can pass until the crowd realizes what is going on. Then gold needs to move, which in turn awakens silver with a delay. Gold in US-Dollar, monthly chart, bull as bull can be: Gold in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 5th, 2021. The monthly gold chart above shows the strong bullish trend in gold over the last twenty years. Telltales are a higher high in 2020 versus 2011, and the price strength since. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart, getting ready: Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 5th, 2021. The weekly chart has just come alive to an exciting inflection point. A closer look reveals that price has successfully built a second leg from the US$1,680 double bottom price zone (yellow lines). The upcoming weeks should show if a double triangle formation (red lines) was severed now that the price is trading above POC support of a fractal volume study (white line). Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, looking good: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 5th, 2021. The weekly silver chart is bullish as well. Bulls have successfully defended the yearly range lows zone (slim white box). They mutually are attacking an overhead resistance with quite some might, and upcoming weeks might find price successful in that attempt. Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart, history as a guide: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 5th, 2021. The above monthly chart shows an excellent example of how much patience is needed to earn significant profits from a silver investment. In this case, silver initiated a range break in 1973, where prices tripled within a year. Much like silver’s recent move from March last year to the current top in February this year. It showed a similar percentage move. This first leg of a bullish trend required more than three years of investor’s patience before the second leg was initiated. Those patient enough to hold on were rewarded with a near thousand percent price increase.   Silver, patience pays: “It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting.”Nothing has changed in the last hundred years about the principle value of this quote by Edwin Lefèvre (Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, published in 1923). We are used to active participation in a process to earn one’s wages. In this aspect however, the market is counterintuitive. “The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money every day, as though they were working for regular wages.” Lefèvre again points towards patience and a state of inactivity being just right in market play. We find the last phase of silver in a sideways range if anything is encouraging to a substantial second leg up in the making, It will therefore reward the patient owner of his physical holdings. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.
Silver, the waiting game

Silver, the waiting game

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 13.11.2021 19:25
Luckily, it is not necessary to time market entry and exit precisely. What is essential is calculating risk itself and that risk to expected returns. In addition, strict management of the trade itself is required. Gold versus Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart, risk versus reward: Gold versus Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 12th, 2021. That being said, instead of getting distracted by a narrative of policymakers who might prolong the inevitable even for years possibly, we focus on the technical aspects that cannot be “rationalized” away and will be unaffected by market influencers. One such fact is the market relationship between silver’s more giant brother gold. The chart above tries to illustrate that gold is trading 10% below its all-time high. On the other hand, silver is trading 50% below its all-time high. This discrepancy makes silver the more desirable play (better risk/reward-ratio). The difference will work like a loaded spring, and once released, silver will outperform gold by a multiple. Gold in US-Dollar, monthly chart, gold leading strongly: Gold in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 13th, 2021. Now that we have found the right vehicle for a wealth preservation insurance play, we are looking for additional factors. Physical acquisition is a clear prosperous choice. It protects against inflation and the risk possibilities inherent to fiat currency, with much historical evidence. That leaves us the question of entry timing. Especially since the physical purchase has a broader spread and a reactionary lag over spot price trading, which is pretty much instant. The chart above clarifies why we see there to be leeway regarding being “right.” It is less critical to pinpoint the absolute lows versus overall participation. Especially since a lack of physical silver availability, which is a possibility, would erase the whole play. The monthly gold chart above is a strong indication that precious metals might be breaking to the upside. With this month’s strength, price pushing against the upper resistance line (white line) of a bullish triangle, silver prices mutually trailing higher is likely. Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart, closely following gold: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 13th, 2021. With these necessary positive edges in play, we can now look at silver itself and look for possible low-risk entry points.The monthly chart shows mutual strength over the previous gold chart. Silver has pushed successfully through the problematic distribution zone around the US$24 price level. It still faces POC (point of control), the highest volume node of our fractal analysis, looming above US$26.03. With this many edges in our favor, we find this an excellent spot to add to physical silver holdings from a long-term holding perspective. Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, spot price play: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 13th, 2021. For a spot price play in the midterm time horizon, we are instead waiting for a possible price bounce of POC. A low-risk entry would be granted once the price retraces back into the US$24 to US$24.50 zone. Reyna Silver encounters multiple high-grade sulphide zones within 54.9 metres of near-source style skarn at Guigui: Silver, the waiting game: In market movement, we see expansion and compression, much like an oscillator. At certain times though, may it be a natural or man-made disaster, we can find ourselves in a stretched or amplified move. These times of abnormality from a time perspective require being well-prepared. Swift, disciplined actions following a clear planned roadmap are advised. An anticipated roadmap strictly followed. It is first a waiting game followed by quick action, both psychologically challenging environments. With physical acquisitions of metals, perfectionism in timing is paralysis. Not necessary to come out ahead. We find silver accumulation at this time to be a prudent measure to protect your wealth. Like buying insurance against an anticipated market turn. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.
Ahead Of The US CPI, Speaking Of Crude Oil And Metals - Saxo Market Call

Market Quick Take - December 1, 2021

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 01.12.2021 09:27
Macro 2021-12-01 08:45 6 minutes to read Summary:  Even more whiplash for global markets yesterday as Fed Chair Powell has clearly set an entirely different tone ahead of his new term as Fed Chair, saying that it was time to retire the word transitory when discussing inflation and pointing to accelerating the slowing of Fed asset purchases, among other comments. This led to a sharp repricing of Fed expectations higher just after they had been taken sharply lower by the news of the omicron covid variant. What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - the initial reaction to Powell’s statement about retiring “transitory” inflation was lower equities and higher interest rates, but the subsequent price action has not followed through. Nasdaq 100 futures, which are the most interest rate sensitive, are trading at the high end of the recent trading range around the 16,380 level with the obvious resistance level at 16,438. Short-term the price action way be confusing with low signal-to-noise ratio, but our view has been clear for over a year, and that is, that inflation is coming and in size not seen in many decades. This will have a negative effect on the most richly valued equities such as our bubble basket on stocks. Stoxx 50 (EU50.I) - one would think that Powell’s comments on inflation would lift value stocks and interest rates, and thereby creating a bigger rebound in European equities, but that is not what we are observing this morning. Stoxx 50 futures are trading around the 4,100 level with an important resistance level at 4,125; if this level can be overcome then our view is that Stoxx 50 futures could go to 4,200 and test the 200-day moving average. USDJPY and JPY crosses – whiplash for JPY cross traders yesterday, as the hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell on inflation took Fed expectations for next year sharply back higher. Longer US yields, to which USDJPY is normally more sensitive, were less impacted, somewhat muting the impact on USDJPY, but the development came at a critical time, just after USDJPY had dipped below 112.73 range support yesterday. The reversal is a tentative sign that the pair will avoid pushing lower, but we would likely need to see the entire US yield curve lifting to have support for a renewed rally focusing on the 115.00+ recent top. EURUSD - will the ECB be forced to change its tune? Christine Lagarde’s insistence that inflation is a temporary phenomenon is under severe strain, even as she has been out this week defending this viewpoint, as was the ECB’s Schnabel, who boldly claimed that the November CPI data (more below) would prove the peak of the cycle. EURUSD churned sharply yesterday from a high of 1.1383 to a low of 1.1236 on the Fed Powell comments (below) before rebounding to 1.1336. The resilience later in the day despite a sharp repricing of Fed expectations is an interesting development, but the price action would need to threaten above 1.1500 to point to a technical reversal of the recent large sell-off. Crude oil (OILUKFEB22 & OILUSJAN21) trades sharply higher after hitting a three-month low on Tuesday in response to omicron related demand worries and general weak risk sentiment following Fed chair Powell’s comments on inflation. The market attention now turns to tomorrow’s OPEC+ meeting where the group may decide to pause production hikes while signaling a willingness to cut production should the demand suffer from fresh initiatives to curb mobility, especially for overseas travel. As a sideshow, the EIA will release its weekly inventory report later with the API reporting a 0.7m barrels draw in crude oil stock while fuel stocks rose. Gold (XAUUSD) trades higher after once again recovering from a Powell statement. Yesterday the Fed chair confirmed his recent change in focus away from creating jobs towards increasing efforts to curb elevated inflation. Risk appetite took another setback on the news but has recovered overnight as traders weighed positive regional economic data and divided views from drugmakers over how effective existing vaccines are against omicron. Overall, gold chart looks increasingly messy with no clear signal to be found at present. A break above the 21-DMA at $1820 is needed to spark fresh momentum interest while support continues to be found below $1780. US Treasuries (IEF, TLT). Powell’s testimony in front of the senate put things in perspective: inflation is not transitory, and the Federal Reserve will use its tools to stop it. These words provoked a fast bear-flattening of the yield curve where short term yields rose faster than log-term yields were dropping. We expect this trend to continue throughout winter as a new wave of covid will pin down the long part of the yield curve, but the Fed is likely to accelerate the pace of tapering. An inversion risk cannot be excluded. The 20s30s part of the yield curve is already inverted, while the 7s10s is just 7bps to get inverted. Although the 2s10s and 5s30s spreads are much wider, any flattening can pose a threat to next year’s Fed’s interest rate hike agenda. Powell and Yellen will testify again in front of the Senate today. Job numbers remain a big focus for Friday. US junk bonds (HYG, JNK). According to Bloomberg Barclays indexes, junk bonds’ OAS widened by 30bps to 330bps amid Friday’s selloff reflecting the lack of liquidity in markets. Despite negative real rates continuing to support corporate bond valuations, it’s safe to expect junk bond spreads to widen throughout the end of the year amid poor liquidity. If the volatility in rates remains sustained, the widening of spreads could accelerate, posing a threat also for stocks. German Bunds (IS0L) and Italian BTPS (BTP10). Inflation accelerated more than expected in the Eurozone during the month of November setting the yearly figure to 4.9%. Inflation figures together with the new German government adds to the catalysts of higher Bund yields. However, covid distortions are keeping yield in check. We exclude Bund yield to rise to test 0% until the new wave of covid eases. However, as soon as the worries concerning covid ease, they will resume their rise. What is going on? Fed Chair Powell confirms that Fed emphasis has shifted to inflationary risks. In testimony before a Senate committee yesterday, Fed Chair Powell waxed far more hawkish than the market anticipated on inflation concerns, saying outright that it is time to retire the word “transitory” regarding the description of inflation, that “the risk of higher inflation has increased” and that “the risk of persistent high inflation is also a major risk to getting back to such a labor market.“ (referring to the pre-pandemic labor market). Powell also pointed to the likelihood that the Fed would wind down Fed balance sheet expansion more quickly than previously anticipated: “perhaps a few months sooner”. In response, expectations for Fed rate hikes next year were jolted back higher, just after they had been jolted lower by the omicron covid variant news. Hot EU CPI numbers for November. Preliminary headline November EU CPI was out at 4.9% year-on-year, far above the 4.5% expected and the 4.1% in October and by far the highest inflation print since the launch of the euro. Core CPI rose to 2.6% year-on-year, above the 2.3% expected and the October level of 2.0%. This is also the highest level since the launch of the euro in 1999. Germany’s incoming chancellor Scholz speaks on inflation, compulsory covid vaccination. The political pressure on the ECB to act is ratcheting higher after incoming German chancellor Scholz said that action must be taken if inflation fails to drop, though he seemed now to accept the notion that inflation is linked to covid measures and the spike in energy prices. He also spoke yesterday in favor of mandatory covid shots. Salesforce shares down 6% on Q4 guidance. Investors are used to being spoiled by Salesforce with consistently beating analyst expectations, but last night the cloud application software company disappointed on Q4 guidance with revenue in line and adj EPS at $0.72-0.73 vs est. $0.82. The company also announced that Bret Taylor will become co-CEO next to founder Marc Benioff in a sign that the founder may soon step down like so many other technology founders in recent years. What are we watching next? Markets adjusting to new reality of a more hawkish Fed. In particular if the omicron variant of the covid virus proves a temporary distraction, global markets will need to adjust the major adjustment in the Federal Reserve’s focus and what that could mean for the US dollar and asset valuations ahead. Fed Chair Powell’s rhetoric yesterday likely mean a heightened reactivity to incoming data from here on out, all modulated in the very near term by headline risks in either direction on the omicron variant. The first major data points are the ISM Service index and November jobs report up on Friday. The Average Hourly Earnings could take over in importance from the payrolls change number if it shows more aggressive rises, as it seems clear that labor supply is the chief problem US companies face, as seen in record job availability and “quits” as workers leave jobs for greener pastures. ADP employment figures for November. With the US economy operating at full capacity according to estimates from CBO, continued strong job gains will add fuel to the “inflation fire”, so today’s ADP figures could more interest rates and equities. Economists are looking at 525K vs 571K in October which would be a significant two-month change for an economy that has closed the output gap, but on the other hand, the US economy is still short around 8.5mn jobs from current levels to where employment would have been if we did not have the pandemic. Earnings Watch – growth investors will have their eyes on Snowflake set to report after the market close with analysts expecting FY22 Q3 (ending 31 Oct) revenue growth of 92% y/y. Crowdstrike, being one of the fastest growing cyber security companies in the world, will also be key to watch today. Wednesday: Trip.com, Royal Bank of Canada, National Bank of Canada, Snowflake, Synopsys, Crowdstrike, Veeva Systems, Okta, Splunk, Elastic, Five Below Thursday: Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, Toronto-Dominion Bank, Cooper Cos, Marvell Technology, DocuSign, Ulta Beauty, Asana, Dollar General, Kroger Friday: Bank of Montreal Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0730 – Switzerland Nov. CPI 0815-0900 – Euro Zone Final Nov. Manufacturing PMI 1315 – US Nov. ADP Employment Change 1330 – Canada Oct. Building Permits 1445 – US Nov. Final Markit Manufacturing PMI 1500 – US Fed Chair Powell, Treasury Secretary Yellen to testify before House panel 1500 – US Nov. ISM Manufacturing 1530 – DOE’s Weekly Crude Oil and Fuel Inventories 1900 - Fed Beige Book 0030 – Australia Oct. Trade Balance   Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple Spotify Soundcloud Sticher
Gold Chart And Silver Chart Look Quite Similar We Might Say...

Gold Chart And Silver Chart Look Quite Similar We Might Say...

Przemysław Radomski Przemysław Radomski 19.01.2022 15:10
  While the USD show is gaining applause, silver has decided to present its repertoire too. Was its rally just a magic trick or a good omen for gold? Bond yields soared once again, just as I’ve been expecting them to for many months now. The reaction in some markets was as expected (the USD Index soared), but in some, it was perplexing. Gold moved lower a little, miners declined a bit more, and silver… rallied. Who’s faking it? Well, perhaps nobody is. Let’s look at the yields’ movement first. The 10-year bond yields have just moved to new yearly highs and are also above their 2021 highs. This happened just after they moved back to their 50-week moving average (marked in blue). For a long time, I’ve been writing that the 2013 performance is likely to be repeated also in this market, and that’s exactly what is taking place right now. Bond yields are doing what they did back then. If history continues to rhyme, we can expect bond yields to rally further, the USD Index to gain, and we can predict gold at lower prices. Speaking of the USD Index, let’s take a look at what it did yesterday. It soared over 0.5 index points, which was the largest daily increase so far this year. This happened after the USD Index moved to a combination of powerful support levels: the rising medium-term support line and the late-2020 high. The tiny attempts to move below those levels were quickly invalidated, and the USD Index was likely to rally back up; and so it did. What’s next? The uptrend was not broken, so it’s likely to continue. In other words, the USD Index’s rally is likely to continue, and this, in turn, is likely to trigger declines across the precious metals sector. Gold didn’t react with a significant decline yesterday – just a moderate/small one – which some might view as bullish. I’d say that it’s rather neutral. The rally above the 2021 highs in bond yields might have come as a shock to many investors, and they might not have been sure how to react or what to make of it. It might also have been the “buy the rumor, sell the fact” type of reaction. Either way, it seems to me that we’ll have to wait a few days and see how it plays out once the dust settles. The volume that we saw yesterday was huge. After a period of relatively average volume, we saw this huge volume spike. I marked the previous cases with red arrows. In those cases, such volume accompanied gold’s sizable declines. This time, the volume spike accompanied a $4.10 decline, which might appear perplexing. Fortunately, gold is not the only market that we can analyze, and – as it’s often the case – context provides us with details that help to make sense of what really happened. Let’s check the key supplemental factor – silver’s price action. While gold declined a bit, silver soared over $0.5! The volume that accompanied this sizable daily upswing was the biggest that we’ve seen so far this year too. The latter provides additional confirmation of the importance of yesterday’s session. What was it that happened yesterday that was so important? Silver outperformed gold on a very short-term basis! This is profoundly important, because that’s what has been accompanying gold’s, silver’s, and mining stocks’ tops for many years. Knowing to pay attention to even small signs of silver’s outperformance is one of the useful gold trading tips, and the extent of the outperformance is what determines the importance of the signal (and its bearishness). The extent was huge yesterday, so the implications are very bearish. Yes, silver moved to new yearly highs as well, but silver is known for its fake breakouts (“fakeouts”), which usually happen without analogous moves in gold and mining stocks. Since neither gold nor miners moved to new yearly highs yesterday, it seems that silver “faked out” once again. Silver is up in today’s pre-market trading, and gold is up only slightly, but the latter is not even close to moving to new 2022 highs. The GDX ETF is actually down in today’s London trading (at the moment of writing these words). Speaking of mining stocks, let’s take a look at what happened in them yesterday. In short, they declined – by over 1%, which is about five times more than gold. Since silver outperformed gold, while gold miners underperformed it, the implications for the precious metals sector are bearish. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Seasonality favors another wave up

Seasonality favors another wave up

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 03.02.2022 21:05
However, these gains attracted some profit-taking at prices around US$1,850. And in the aftermath of last week’s FOMC meeting, gold sold off for three days in a row. This merciless sell-off only ended at US$1,780 wiping out nearly all gains since mid of December. It was some form of the classic “the bull walks up the stairs and the bear jumps out the window” pattern, which is a typical behavior within an uptrend.Hence and exactly for this reason, the deep pullback did not necessarily end the recovery in the gold market. Of course, in the bigger picture, the entire precious metals sector is still stuck in this tenacious correction which has been ongoing since August 2020. In the short-term, however, the pullback has created an oversold setup and once again proved that there is buying interest at prices below US$1,800.US-Dollar index, daily chart as of February 3rd, 2022. False breakout?US-Dollar index, daily chart as of February 3rd, 2022.It also seems that the US-Dollar might have hit an important top last Thursday and is now moving lower, which would be very supportive for gold, of course. Everyone is expecting the US-Dollar to go up as the FED is expected to raise interest rates. But the US-Dollar has been discounting this “hike and taper scenario” for several months already. Actually, the US-Dollar index has been rallying +8.8% since May 2021! During the recent FOMC meeting, however, big money might have used the seeming breakout to sell their dollar longs into a favorable high-volume setup. At the same time, stock market sentiment was extremely bearish. Hence, last week likely triggered a top in the US-Dollar and a violent back and forth bottoming pattern for the stock-market.US-Dollar index, monthly chart as of February 3rd, 2022. A series of lower highs!US-Dollar index, monthly chart as of February 3rd, 2022.In the big picture, a top in the US-Dollar would continue the series of lower highs for the dollar. As well, the US-Dollar is moving within a huge triangle since 2001. After a series of three lower highs since December 2016, a test of the lower boundary of the triangle would give gold prices an extreme tailwind in the coming years. Hence, even if it´s hard to come up with any bearish arguments for the dollar at the moment, technically it looks like the dollar could roll over.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart from February 3rd, 2020. Gold’s behavior is changing.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 3rd, 2022.For gold, a weaker US-Dollar would be very helpful. In fact, since the beginning of this week, we perceive an ongoing change in gold’s behavior. We are getting impressed by its intraday strength! Every small pullback around and below US$1,800 was rather quickly bought again. So far, gold has only recovered 38.2% of last week’s nasty sell-off and currently sits pretty much exactly at its 200-day moving average (US$1,805).But the fresh buy signal from the slow stochastic oscillator on the daily chart promises more upside. Hence, we see gold fuming its way higher in the coming weeks. In the next step, gold will have to overcome the 38.2% resistance around US$1,808.50 and then continue its recovery towards US$1,830. In any case, the seasonal component is at least very favorable until the end of February. Therefore, even higher price targets are conceivable too. But gold needs to breakout above the triangle and clear US$1,850. Only then a more sustainable bullish momentum would emerge which could last further into spring.If, on the other hand, gold takes out US$1,780, the recovery since mid of December might be over already and the medium-term correction might likely pick up again.Conclusion: Seasonality favors another wave upOverall, we assume that seasonality favors another wave up in the gold market. Thus, another rally towards at least US$1,830 is realistic. We are short-term bullish, mid-term neutral to skeptic and long-term very bullish for gold.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Florian Grummes|February 3rd, 2022|Tags: EUR/USD, Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, Gold neutral, precious metals, Reyna Gold, US-Dollar|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.
Price Of Gold Update By GoldViewFX

Price Of Gold Hitting $2.000? Metal Seems To Feel Good

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 14.02.2022 07:34
Given last week’s strong price action and gold’s intraday resilience, it is now very likely that gold indeed is breaking out of the multi-month consolidation triangle. Actually, this large and symmetrical triangle had been building for more than a year, at least. However, the correction in gold began on August 7th, 2020. Now it looks like the breakout is in process. Typically, traders tend to aggressively buy into such a breakout. And given Friday’s sharp spike higher, it actually looks exactly like this. Hence, expect more volatility and a sharp move higher as the direction of gold’s next move has become more obvious. Please note, that it is rather challenging to draw and determine the correct triangle, because gold has been in a tricky sideways market for such a long time and many trend-lines have been invalidated during this messy period. But at the latest, a weekly close above US$1,875 should confirm the breakout. This should unleash enough energy to push gold prices quickly towards US$1,900 and even US$1,950 within a few weeks. Obviously, that would fit very well with gold’s seasonal cycle, which is bullish until the end of February at least, but often saw gold rallying into mid of march, too. Consumer sentiment at 10-year low but Fed wants to hike and taper From a fundamental perspective, it leaves us speechless how the Fed can go on a hiking rampage while consumer sentiment is at a 10-year low. While the confidence in governments worldwide is collapsing and inflation is spiking higher, raising rates will have zero impact upon supply shortages. Instead, it will make these shortages only worse and bankrupt more companies in the supply chain. Also, it will bankrupt emerging markets, as the strong dollar has already been putting so much pressure on dollar indebted nations and creditors. It’s all a big mess, and we believe there is no way out. That’s why the warmongering industrial and military complex of the US is desperately trying to push Russia into an attack on Ukraine! Without showing any proof, the Biden administration and their mouthpiece “the mainstream media” have been pushing people’s focus on fears that Russia will soon invade Ukraine. Another noteworthy fundamental observation: Gold’s correction began in earnest when Pfizer & Biontech announced their vaccine on November 9th, 2020. In a first reaction, gold immediately sold off $150 on that same day. Many more similar large red daily candles followed over the last 16 months, destroying the confidence of the gold bugs and shifting millions of dollars to the short sellers. Now that more and more very serious questions about the vaccines are debated in the news, it would make sense for gold to run back to US$1,950. This was the level where gold was trading back on November 9th, 2020. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 13th, 2022. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 13th, 2022. On the weekly chart, gold has been slowly but surely progressing into the apex of the triangle over the last few months. It now looks like Gold is breaking out with vengeance. Theoretically, the resistance zone between US$1,850 and US$1,875 could still stop the bullish train. The weekly Bollinger Bands (US$1,864) sits right in this zone and should at least challenge the bulls for some days. However, the weekly stochastic has just given a new buy signal. On top, the oscillator has been making higher lows since March 2021. A measured move out of this triangle could take gold to around US$1,950 to US$1.975 until spring. The monthly Bollinger Band ($1,975) could become the logical target! Overall, the weekly chart is becoming more and more bullish, suggesting that gold can at least move around US$80 to US$100 higher. Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 13th, 2022. Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 13th, 2022. On the daily chart, gold has been struggling with the upper triangle resistance in November and January. Each time, the bears managed to push back. Now it looks like the bulls are finally successful. The fierce and sharp pullback two and half weeks ago had created a nice oversold setup which became the launching pad for the ongoing attack. Since then, the slow stochastic has been nicely turning around. This buy signal is still active and has not yet reached the overbought zone. Thanks to Friday’s big green candle, the bulls are now bending the upper Bollinger Band (US$1,858) to the upside. To conclude, the daily chart is bullish, and gold should have more upside. If the bulls continue their attack, we could see prices directly exploding for four to seven days. More likely would be a consolidation. Only with prices below US$1,835 the breakout would have failed. In that rather unlikely case, the picture could quickly turn ugly again. Conclusion: Gold is breaking out! In mid of December, gold made an important low around US$1,752. Back then, most gold bugs had enough and did throw in the towel after a very difficult and messy 16-month correction. Gold, silver and the mining stock had become the most hated asset. But actually, all that gold might have been doing was building an epic base and a launch pad to start the next leg higher within its bull market. Overall, we expect that Gold is breaking out after a short consolidation! The successful breakout above resistance between US$1,850 and US$1,875 should happen within the next few days or weeks. This should then lead to higher prices and gold will likely run towards US$1,950, at least. However, we are not sure yet whether this will also bring an attack towards the round number resistance at US$2,000. Given the fact, that gold usually starts to struggle somewhere in spring, the ongoing rally could still be just a counter-trend move within the larger ongoing consolidation/correction. Hence, we are short-term very bullish, mid-term neutral and long-term very bullish for gold. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Florian Grummes|February 13th, 2022|Tags: Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, gold fundamentals, precious metals, Reyna Gold, US-Dollar About the Author: Florian Grummes Florian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.
Bullish momentum remains strong

Bullish momentum remains strong

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 20.02.2022 17:36
Even at the last important low (US$$1,750) on December 15th, 2021, the sentiment was still awful as the sector had become the most hated asset class. Now fast-forward, gold has been successfully breaking out of its multi month triangle and keeps sprinting higher. The bulls currently are bending the daily and weekly Bollinger Bands to the upside, and seasonality is still supportive.Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 20th, 2022.Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 20th, 2022.Looking at the weekly chart, it appears that gold not only broke out of a triangle consolidation pattern, but also out of a large inverse head and shoulder pattern. It’s not a textbook head and shoulder, but worthwhile noting. A measured move projection could theoretically take gold towards US$2,125! However, the monthly Bollinger Band, sitting at around US$ 1,975, might be a much more realistic target for the ongoing move. As you might remember, the zone between US$1,950 to US$1,975 is very strong resistance. We would not rule out a short-lived overshoot towards US$,2000, though.Overall, the weekly chart is not yet overbought and looks bullish. Hence, the rally has very good chances to continue for a few more weeks.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.As expected, the breakout above US$1,840 to US$1,850 has unleashed enough energy to quickly push gold prices towards the round psychological number of US$1,900. Fortunately, the daily stochastic has transformed its overboughtness into the rare “embedded status”, where both signal lines are sitting above 80 for more than three days in a row. Hence, the uptrend is locked-in and shorting this market would be fighting the uptrend.Of course, given the uncertain and complex geopolitical situation, events can and likely will strongly influence gold over the coming days and weeks. Speaking from a technical point of you, any pullback towards the breakout zone around US$1,845 would be a buying opportunity. However, prices below US$1,875 would already be a surprise in the short-term. On the contrary, it’s much more likely that gold will continue its run to at least US$1,930 over the coming days.In summary, the daily chart is bullish. Especially the bullish embedded stochastic oscillator likely will not allow any larger pullback, but rather a consolidation around US$1,900. Watch those two signal lines. Only if one of them would be dropping below 80on a daily close, the bull run might be over!GDX (VanEck Gold Miners ETF) in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.GDX, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.Gold & gold related mining stocks often stabilize your portfolio during uncertain times and do act as a hedge. While the stock market continued its dive due to the crisis in Ukraine and the potential interest rate turnaround in the US, the GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF is up more than 21.5% since its low in mid of December. Over the last two weeks, the leading gold mining stocks recorded some of their best days in the last 12 months. Last week, Barrick Gold ($GOLD) jumped up more than 7% due to good earnings, a dividend increase, and a new share repurchase program. Some smaller gold stocks like Sabina Gold & Silver ($SGSVF) went up even more (+15% Friday, 11th).Now that gold is on the rise, it’s time for the beaten down and undervalued mining stocks to catch up. Usually, it starts with the big senior produces like Barrick Gold, Agnico Eagle Mines ($AEM) and Newmont Corporation ($NEM), then the juniors like for example Victoria Gold Corp. ($VITFF) join and finally, the explorer and developers literally explode higher.However, the GDX has nearly reached its downtrend line as well as the 38.2% retracement of the whole corrective wave since August 2020. Hence, the big miners are running into string resistance and might need to consolidate soon.At the same time, note, that silver has been lagging. Silver always lags most of the time, but in the final stage of sector wide rally it suddenly passes all the other metals and shots up nearly vertically. That also typically is the sign that the rally in the sector is coming to an end. Obviously, we have not yet seen any strong silver days. Therefore, silver actually confirms that the sector has more room and time to run higher!Conclusion: Bullish momentum remains strongOverall, gold continues to look promising here as the bullish momentum remains strong. Hence, Gold is probably on the way towards US$1,950 and US$1,975, with a slight chance for an overshot to US$2,000. But of course, given the rather overbought daily chart, the risk/reward is not that good anymore. Silver and many of the smaller mining stocks, however, might still offer a chance to play the ongoing rally over the next few weeks. Once gold tops out in spring, expect a big pullback. Maybe even back towards the higher trending 200-day moving average (currently at US$1,808) at some point in midsummer. But that is all somewhere in the future. For now, the bullish momentum remains strong.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Florian Grummes|February 20th, 2022|Tags: $GDXJ, Barrick Gold, GDX, Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, gold fundamentals, Newmont Corporation, precious metals, Reyna Gold, Sabina Gold & Silver, Silver, silver bull, US-Dollar, Victoria Gold|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.
Strong reversal should lead to another leg up

Strong reversal should lead to another leg up

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 27.02.2022 20:32
Looking back, gold has been rising nearly US$225 since December 15th, 2021, and US$195 since 28th of January 2022. Especially the strong rally over the last four weeks caught many by surprise. But our price target of US$1,975 was hit exactly last Thursday, when all other markets plunged in anticipation of strong sanctions against Russia. Markets then strongly recovered on Friday on hopes of weak sanctions and a potential postponement of the rate hikes by the FED. Over the weekend, however, NATO and its partners announced SWIFT sanctions against Russia. Monday will therefore likely be another wild and volatile day in the markets. But “peak fear” has probably been reached last Thursday (at least for now). Give peace a chance ðŸ•Šï¸ÂðŸ‡·ðŸ‡ºðŸ•Šï¸ÂðŸ‡ºðŸ‡¦ðŸ•Šï¸Â Fundamentally, banning Russian banks from SWIFT payments will lead to Russia stop selling oil & natural gas. Russian oil represents about 9% of global output and there’s an energy shortage already. The result will be a global depression and more inflation at the same time. And that would be the best-case scenario, cause as quickly as things unfold, WWIII is no longer an unthinkable horror scenario. We can only hope that successful peace negotiations will take place as soon as possible. In these uncertain times, gold should remain supported. As geopolitical events unfold, another sharp spike higher is always possible. A direct transition back into the correction, which began in August 2020, is unlikely. It would rather take much more time (at least a few months), before gold could drift back towards significantly lower grounds. Our maximum downside remains at US$1,625 for the potential 8-year cycle low, due in 2023 or 2024. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 27th, 2022. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 27th, 2022. On its weekly chart, gold continues to be in an uptrend. The breakout above the downtrend line led to a sharp advance over the last two weeks. The stochastic oscillator still has a buy signal in place. And with the sharp reversal/pullback since reaching $1,975, gold did close the week right at its upper Bollinger Band (US$1,889). Since the upper Bollinger Band has been bent upwards, gold will now have more room to continue its rally to the upside over the coming two to four weeks. However, the stochastic oscillator is about to reach its overbought zone. Comparing its behavior to the last 16 months, we have to assume that gold will have a hard time nesting up in the overbought zone for long. Hence, corrective price action is on the horizon. Overall, the weekly chart is still bullish and points to another attack towards US$1,950 to US$1,975. Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 27th, 2022. Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 27th, 2022. The daily chart captures the sharp rally as well as the reversal and bloodbath in the gold market over last two days. So far, gold has given back nearly 50% of the rally since January 28th (from US$1,780 up to US$1,975 and then down to US$1,878). The stochastic oscillator has lost its embedded status and momentum is bearish now. Should gold want to correct further towards the 61.8%-retracement ($1,854), it will likely also test the former resistance and breakout level around US$1,840 to US$1,845. Such a pullback towards US$1,840 to US$1,855 has certain probability, but would also offer a very interesting long entry again. Since the short-term timeframes like the 1- and 4-hour charts are getting oversold, gold alternatively might find support between US$1,870 and US$1,880 over the next few days already. To summarize, the daily chart is currently bearish and patience is needed. But Gold I swell supported and should find support either between US$1,840 to US$1,855 or US$1,870 and US$1,880. Afterwards it should start another leg up. Conclusion: Strong reversal should lead to another leg up Last week’s price action was certainly not for the faint of heart. A daily gain of over +4% is extremely rare in the gold market and was immediately undone upon COMEX opening. The sharp reversal does not look too good, but it does not yet mean the end of the rally. Expect some more downside or at least sideways consolidation. Usually, such a sharp rally does not collapse immediately. Hence, once the bulls have sorted themselves, we expect another rise above US$1,900 with a minimum price target of US$1,950. An overshot towards US$2,000 is still possible, but now a bit less likely. Once this next attack will have failed, we assume the start of a corrective wave down somewhere in spring, which could last well into early to midsummer. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Florian Grummes|February 27th, 2022|Tags: Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, Gold consolidation, gold fundamentals, Natural Gas, Oil, precious metals, Reyna Gold, US-Dollar|0 Comments About the Author: Florian Grummes Florian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.
Potential recovery to approx. US$2,000

Potential recovery to approx. US$2,000

Florian Grummes Florian Grummes 20.03.2022 10:13
Starting at a low of US$1,780 on January 28th, gold went up rapidly US$290 within less than six weeks, reaching a short-term top at US$2,070. Since that high on March 8th, however, gold prices fell back even faster. In total, gold plunged a whooping US$175 to a low of US$1,895 in the aftermath of last week’s FOMC meeting. A quick bounce took prices back to around US$1,950, but the weekly close at around US$1,920 came in lower.This volatile roller coaster ride is truly not for the faint of heart. Nevertheless, gold has done well this year, and, despite a looming multi-months correction, it might now be in a setup from which another attack towards US$2,000 could start in the short-term.Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of March 19th, 2022.Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of March 19th, 2022.On the weekly chart, gold prices have been rushing higher with great momentum. For five consecutive weeks, the bulls were able to bend the upper Bollinger band (US$1,963) upwards. However, the final green candle closed far outside the Bollinger bands and looks like a weekly reversal. Consequently, if gold has now dipped into a multi-month correction, a retracement back to the neckline of the broken triangle respectively the inverse head & shoulder pattern in the range of US$1,820 to US$1,850 would be quite typical and to be expected. In this range, the classic 61.8% retracement of the entire wave up (from the low at US$1,678 on August 9th, 2021, to the most recent blow off top at US$2,070) sits at US$1,827.79. The weekly stochastic oscillator has not yet rolled over, but weekly momentum is overbought and vulnerable.In total, the weekly chart shows a big reversal and therefore no longer supports the bullish case. However, it could still take some more time before a potential correction gains momentum.  Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of March 19th, 2022.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of March 19th, 2022.While the weekly chart may just be at the beginning of a multi-month correction, the overbought setup on the daily chart has already been largely cleared up by the recent steep pullback. Despite Friday’s rather weak closing, the odds are not bad that gold might very soon be turning up again. However, gold bulls need to take out the pivot resistance around US$1,960 to unlock higher price targets in the context of a recovery. The potential Fibonacci retracements are waiting at US$1,962, US$2,003 and US$2,028. Hence, gold could bounce back to approx. US$2,000, which is a round number and therefore a psychological resistance.On the other hand, if gold fails to move back above Thursday’s high at US$1,950, weakness will increase immediately and significantly. In that case, bulls can only hope that the quickly rising lower Bollinger Band (US$1,861) would catch and limit a deeper sell-off. But since the stochastic oscillator has reached its oversold zone, bears might have a hard time pushing gold significantly below US$1,900.Overall, the daily chart is slightly oversold, and gold might start a bounce soon. Conclusion: Potential recovery to approx. US$2,000After a strong rally and a steep pullback, the gold market is likely in the process of reordering. While the weekly timeframe points to a correction, the oversold daily chart points to an immediate bounce. Given these contradictory signals, investors and especially traders are well advised to exercise patience and caution in the coming days, weeks, and months. If gold has entered a corrective cycle, it could easily take until the early to mid-summer before a sustainable new up-trend might emerge.Alternative super bullish scenarioAlternatively, and this of course is still a possible scenario, the breakout from the large “cup and handle” pattern is just getting started. In this very bullish case, gold is in the process of breaking out above US$2,100 to finally complete the very large “cup and handle” pattern, which has been developing for 11 years! Obviously, the sky would then be the limit.To summarize, gold is getting really bullish back above US$2,030. On the other hand, below $US1,895 the bears would be in control. In between those two numbers, the odds favor a bounce towards US$1,960 and maybe USD$2,000.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Florian Grummes|March 19th, 2022|Tags: Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bearish, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, Gold consolidation, gold fundamentals, Gold sideways, precious metals, Reyna Gold|0 Commentshttps://www.midastouch-consulting.com/gold-chartbook-19032022-potential-recovery-to-approx-us2000About the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.
Eurozone PMI Shows Limited Improvement Amid Lingering Contraction Concerns in September

U.S bond Yields vs Gold Futures, Volatility In The Price Of Coffee, Brent Crude Price Falls

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 25.04.2022 16:22
Summary: Coffee futures prices are being affected by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Brent Crude Oil Prices falling despite ongoing uncertainties with the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Gold futures prices falling as the US bond yields change once again. Coffee futures prices showing volatility. The futures price for coffee has fallen 2.11% since the market opened this morning. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine war with no sign of slowing, has had an adverse effect on the price of coffee futures over the last while, this is represented in the graph below. There are concerns about growth and therefore supply with the Russia-Ukraine conflicts and in addition the poor rainfall in Brazil this year continues to raise concerns about supply, however the demand is also decreasing as a result of the conflicts. This relationship could be causing the volatility in this commodity. Coffee Jul ‘22 Futures Prices Is the Price of Brent Crude Oil Finally Falling? Since the market opened this morning, the price of Brent Crude Oil has fallen by almost 5%. The weakening of the price comes despite the Russia-Ukraine war uncertainties and the post-covid world economy reopening. Occasionally the price of Brent Crude is adversely affected as the US Dollar strengthens, seeing as the Fed increased the U.S yields again for the seventh consecutive week, the US dollar saw more strengthening on the market today, this could be a possible reason for the price fall in Brent Crude. Brent Crude Oil Price Chart   Read next: (XAGUSD) Price of Silver Vs. U.S Yields, Lumber and Corn Futures Dependent on Demand and Supply    Gold prices affected by US Yields once again. This time last week gold futures had hit their high for April, however since the market opened this morning, the price has fallen by 1.96%, and is 5% down from its 18 April high. Normally gold is used as a hedge against inflation, however since the US yields increased again, the opportunity cost of holding gold and not bonds increases, driving the price of gold down further. This commodity is one to watch especially if the Fed continues to be hawkish. Gold Futures Price Chart Sources: Finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, ndtv.com   Read Next: Unexpectedly Gold Price (XAUUSD) Falls, Canada And Chicago - Weather Makes Wheat Futures Fluctuate. The Price Of Palladium - Industrial Activity Is Taking Strain   
Commodities: EU Members Manage To Agree On Price Caps For Russian Oil

Exxon and Chevron Earnings Announcements Has Little Effect on Brent Crude Oil Prices, Bullish Market Sentiment For Cotton and Gold Prices Rise Again

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 29.04.2022 14:42
Summary: Despite the earnings of Chevron and Exxon not meeting expectations, the price of Brent Crude Oil continues to rise. Cotton futures prices rise as farmers begin to hoard. Gold prices on the rise again amidst worrying U.S GDP numbers. Brent Crude Oil price increase continues. The week started off poorly for the Brent Crude Oil stocks, but have since then risen substantially. Despite the earnings report of energy sector giants Chevron and Exxon falling short of investor expectations, the price of Brent Crude Oil still saw price rises over the past 24 hours. The price increase comes with the West continuing to move away from Russia for their oil supplies and therefore the concerns around supply continue. Brent Crude Oil Price Chart Read next: Platinum and Random Length Lumber Futures Prices Falling Whilst Corn Futures Are Showing Bullish Signals.   Cotton futures may continue to be bullish. The Price of cotton futures continues to rise amidst China's lockdowns as concerns about crop planting and adverse weather conditions rise. With China being one of the major suppliers of cotton worldwide and therefore future supply concerns pushing the price up, as well as farmers hoarding their cotton in hopes the future prices will increase the commodity prices are likely to continue this bullish trend. Cotton Futures Jul ‘22 Price Chart Gold Futures on the rise again. Gold Futures rose on Friday as worrying U.S economic data sent investors seeking the gold safe-haven investment. US GDP came out as disappointing, meaning that pressure could be taken off the Fed to continue on its hawkish monetary pursuit, begging the question of whether fighting the inflation is worth dragging the economy into a recession. Gold Futures Price Chart Read next: Natural GAS (NGAS) and RBOB Gasoline’s (RB) May Futures Expected To Increase Further In 2022. Copper (HG) Prices Also Forecasted To Increase.   Sources: Finance.yahoo.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com 
Gold (XAUUSD) Prices Fall As U.S Yields Rise, Wheat Prices Facing Pressure, Palladium Prices In Recovery! - Commodities Today.

Gold (XAUUSD) Prices Fall As U.S Yields Rise, Wheat Prices Facing Pressure, Palladium Prices In Recovery! - Commodities Today.

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 02.05.2022 10:48
Summary: Gold versus U.S Yields. Palladium Prices showing signs of recovery. Wheat prices affected by Russia’s possible taxation of the commodity. Gold Futures Price Falls As the opportunity cost for holding rises. The price of gold has fallen amidst the Federal Reserve raising yields and therefore putting pressure on zero-yield bullion. The market is concerned at how big the next 2 interest rate hikes could be, the Fed are putting their best foot forward as they attempt to fight the increasing inflation and increasing labour costs. As the short term U.S interest yields increase, the opportunity cost for holding gold increases too, driving the price down with the falling demand. Gold Futures Price Chart   Read next: Exxon and Chevron Earnings Announcements Has Little Effect on Brent Crude Oil Prices, Bullish Market Sentiment For Cotton and Gold Prices Rise Again    Palladium prices are back on the rise. Over the past week the price of palladium has seen an overall positive price trend, this comes with the problems in supply chains around the world and the Russia-Ukraine war. Russia is one of the biggest producers and exporters in the world, with South Africa, Russia produces and exports around 70% of the world's palladium. The sanctions on Russia are putting a dent in supply, in addition, the lockdowns in China causing concerns around demand. Palladium Futures Price Chart Wheat prices facing pressure. Wheat Future prices down around 1% today. The price has been stable over the past week apart from the sharp drop on Sunday amidst concerns around Russia imposing taxes on its wheat exports between now and July 2022. There are concerns around demand and supply with Wheat due to the war in the Ukraine and concerns around supply chains. Wheat Futures Price Chart   Read next: Natural GAS (NGAS) and RBOB Gasoline’s (RB) May Futures Expected To Increase Further In 2022. Copper (HG) Prices Also Forecasted To Increase.    Sources: Finance.yahoo.com, agriculture.com
Oil jumps on EU ban, gold rises after Fed

Oil jumps on EU ban, gold rises after Fed

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 05.05.2022 15:30
Oil prices leap on EU oil ban Oil prices leapt higher overnight as markets digested the impact of the proposed EU ban on Russian oil imports. Additionally, the OPEC+ JTC is indicating that there will be no change in the monthly schedule of production increases, with some members in fact noting that China’s demand has slumped. Brent crude rose by 4.05% to USD 111.10 overnight, with WTI climbing by 3.90% to USD 107.55 a barrel. ​ In Asia, Brent and WTI have had a muted session, adding just 0.50% each to USD 110.60 and USD 108.10 respectively. In the bigger picture, Brent crude is still in a broader USD 100.00 to USD 120.00 range, and WTI in a USD 95.00 to USD 115.00 range. Only a weekly close above or below those levels signals a new directional move. Overall, we remain in a situation where the Ukraine/Russia conflict and the inability of OPEC+ to even meet their pre-agreed quotas is keeping spot prices tight, while China’s covid-zero-induced slowdown is acting to cap price increases. With the sanction situation on Russia escalating, and with Russian retaliation not out of the question, I believe the risks of the Ukraine conflict becoming more fully priced into energy markets are increasing.   Gold rallies on a weaker US dollar Gold rose sharply overnight as the US dollar plummeted post-FOMC after the Fed hiked by 0.50% as expected, and eased concerns around future 0.75% hikes. Gold rose 0.70% to USD 1881.50 an ounce, before continuing its rally in Asia, gaining an impressive 1.10% to USD 1901.65 today. The move in Asia is unusual, even more so because other asset classes in Asia are not showing a strong continuation of the US dollar sell-off seen overnight, although Asian currencies have rallied modestly in trading today. I suspect the buying is coming out of China as that market had returned from holidays today. From a technical perspective, gold reclaimed the 100-day moving average at USD 1881.00 overnight, which becomes intraday support, followed by USD 1850.00 and USD 1835.00 an ounce. Gold faces resistance at USD 1920.00 and USD 1960.00 an ounce. It is too early to say that gold prices have turned a corner. If the US dollar correction lower continues, then gold can certainly continue rallying. But if the US dollar sell-off runs out of steam, then gold will struggle to maintain gains above USD 1900.00 an ounce.   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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