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Mining stocks were picked up by investors in the latest bullish wave. But these bad performers may be dumped just as quickly as they were bought. After the HUI Index rallied back above the neckline of its bearish head & shoulders pattern, a new bull market for mining stocks has finally begun. Or has it? Well, after an identical development occurred in 2000, the HUI Index soon invalidated the breakout (and once again confirmed the breakdown) and a sharp decline followed. Please see below: As further evidence, stock market strength often follows the aphorism that ‘a rising tide lifts all boats.’ And while gold mining stocks rode the bullish wave, the sentiment high will likely reverse over the medium term. To explain, silver and mining stocks are some of the worst performers when volatility strikes the general stock market. And with mining stocks’ recent bout of optimism underwritten by the ‘everything rally’ that we witnessed last week, when market participants ‘panic buy’ everything in sight, they often gobble up the major laggards (with the goal of capitalizing on potential mean reversion). Moreover, with silver and mining stocks some of the worst-performing assets YTD, the excessive optimism helped uplift these laggards last week. To that point, with last week’s move largely driven by sentiment and not fundamental or technical realities, silver and mining stocks’ rallies are unlikely to hold over the medium term. Furthermore, it’s important to remember that cheap assets are often cheap for a reason. And with the marginal buyer of silver and mining stocks buying momentum and not fundamentals, they’ll likely end up holding the bag if/when sentiment reverses once again. In other words, it was probably buying from the general public that helped to lift gold stocks higher – the kind of investors that enter the market at the end of the upswing, buying what’s cheap regardless of the outlook. And these are also the kind of investors that tend to lose money. If you really think that gold stocks were strong last week, please compare their performance to the one of copper, for example. The latter moved sharply higher, while miners simply corrected from their yearly lows. In addition, while I’ve also been warning about the ominous similarity to 2012-2013, the HUI Index continues to hop into the time machine. To explain, the vertical, dashed lines above demonstrate how the HUI Index is following its 2012-2013 playbook. For example, after a slight buy signal from the stochastic indicator in 2012, the short-term pause was followed by another sharp drawdown. For context, after the HUI Index recorded a short-term buy signal in late 2012 – when the index’s stochastic indicator was already below the 20 level (around 10) and the index was in the process of forming the right shoulder of a huge, medium-term head-and-shoulders pattern – the index moved slightly higher, consolidated, and then fell off a cliff. Thus, the HUI Index is quite likely to decline to its 200-week moving average (or so) before pausing and recording a corrective upswing. That’s close to the 220 level. Thereafter, the index will likely continue its bearish journey and record a final medium-term low some time in December. Furthermore, I warned previously that the miners’ drastic underperformance of gold was an extremely bearish sign. There were several weeks when gold rallied visibly, and the HUI Index actually declined modestly. And now, gold stocks are trading close to their previous 2021 lows, while gold is almost right in the middle between its yearly high and its yearly low. And why is this so important? Well, because the bearish implications of gold stocks’ extreme underperformance still remain intact. Let’s keep in mind that the drastic underperformance of the HUI Index also preceded the bloodbath in 2008 as well as in 2012 and 2013. To explain, right before the huge slide in late September and early October 2008, gold was still moving to new intraday highs; the HUI Index was ignoring that, and then it declined despite gold’s rally. However, it was also the case that the general stock market suffered materially. If stocks didn’t decline so profoundly back then, gold stocks’ underperformance relative to gold would have likely been present but more moderate. Nonetheless, broad head & shoulders patterns have often been precursors to monumental collapses. For example, when the HUI Index retraced a bit more than 61.8% of its downswing in 2008 and in between 50% and 61.8% of its downswing in 2012 before eventually rolling over, in both (2008 and 2012) cases, the final top – the right shoulder – formed close to the price where the left shoulder topped. And in early 2020, the left shoulder topped at 303.02. Thus, three of the biggest declines in the gold mining stocks (I’m using the HUI Index as a proxy here) all started with broad, multi-month head-and-shoulders patterns. And in all three cases, the size of the declines exceeded the size of the head of the pattern. As a reminder, the HUI Index recently completed the same formation. Yes, the HUI Index moved back below the previous lows and the neck level of the formation, which – at face value – means that the formation was invalidated, but we saw a similar “invalidation” in 2000 and in 2013. Afterwards, the decline followed anyway. Consequently, I don’t think that taking the recent move higher at its face value is appropriate. It seems to me that the analogies to the very similar situation from the past are more important. As a result, we’re confronted with two bearish scenarios: If things develop as they did in 2000 and 2012-2013, gold stocks are likely to bottom close to their early-2020 low. If things develop like in 2008 (which might be the case, given the extremely high participation of the investment public in the stock market and other markets), gold stocks could re-test (or break slightly below) their 2016 low. In both cases, the forecast for silver, gold, and mining stocks is extremely bearish for the next several months. For even more confirmation, let’s compare the behavior of the GDX ETF and the GDXJ ETF. Regarding the former, the GDX ETF’s small breakout mirrors what we witnessed during the senior miners’ downtrend in late 2020/early 2021. Moreover, when the GDX ETF’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) approached 70 (overbought conditions) back then, the highs were in (or near) and sharp reversals followed. Please see below: As for the GDXJ ETF, the gold junior miners’ RSI also signals overbought conditions and history has been unkind when similar developments have occurred. To explain, I wrote on Oct. 15: It is quite interesting when you consider how high the RSI is right now, and when in the past both the RSI and the GDXJ itself were trading at today’s levels. That was in late February 2020. Back then, juniors were after a short-term rally from below $40, and they topped above $44. The RSI approached 70 — just like what we see today. And then the GDXJ declined below $20 in less than a month. I think the decline will take place longer this time, but the outlook is still extremely bearish. By the way, the last time when the RSI was as high as it is right now was… right at the 2020 top. That’s yet another indication for gold that signals that the top is in or at hand. Please see below: Also noteworthy, while mining stocks outperformed gold on Oct. 15, their relative strength requires further verification to be considered material. For example, gold declined by 1.65% on Oct. 15, while the GDX ETF and the GDXJ ETF were down by roughly 1%. Moreover, this occurred with the USD Index largely flat. However, mining stocks will likely play catch-up over the next few months and their relative strength should reverse over the medium term. In other words, it’s not correct to simply compare gold stocks and gold right now and say that the former were strong. It should be noted that the USD Index did nothing on Friday (Oct. 15) and gold stocks declined anyway. Consequently, it’s just the case that gold was the “odd man out” on Friday, while other markets were relatively normal. The USD Index verified its breakout, but it hasn’t moved visibly higher yet, so miners didn’t move visibly lower yet. Yet. Finally, while I’ve been warning for months that the GDXJ/GDX ratio was destined for devaluation, the ratio has fallen precipitously in 2021. And while a tiny breakout occurred last week, the price action actually mirrors what we witnessed in early 2020 – right before the ratio fell off a cliff. As a result, further downside likely lies ahead. The bottom line? If the ratio is likely to continue its decline, then on a short-term basis we can expect it to decline to 1.27 or so. If the general stock market plunges, the ratio could move even lower, but let’s assume that stocks decline moderately (just as they did in the last couple of days) or that they do nothing or rally slightly. They’ve done all the above recently, so it’s natural to expect that this will be the case. Consequently, the trend in the GDXJ to GDX ratio would also be likely to continue, and thus expecting a move to about 1.26 - 1.27 seems rational. If the GDX is about to decline to approximately $28 before correcting, then we might expect the GDXJ to decline to about $28 x 1.27 = $35.56 or $28 x 1.26 = $35.28. In other words, ~$28 in the GDX is likely to correspond to about $35 in the GDXJ. Is there any technical support around $35 that would be likely to stop the decline? Yes. It’s provided by the late-Feb. 2020 low ($34.70) and the late-March high ($34.84). There’s also the late-April low at $35.63. Consequently, it seems that expecting the GDXJ to decline to about $35 is justified from the technical point of view as well. In conclusion, gold, silver, and mining stocks are doing what they often do: with short-term oversold conditions eliciting countertrend rallies, investors that ignore history, technicals, and fundamentals are hoping that this is the rally where the precious metals finally deliver on all of their promises. However, with each corrective upswing akin to ‘The Boy Who Cried Wolf,’ investors are often left disappointed when they run to the precious metals rescue. As a result, a similar outcome will likely materialize this time around. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chief Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

We might see a plunge in gold prices quite soon. History repeats itself to a huge degree at the moment – let’s see what it has to offer. Today’s technical analysis will be very similar to what I provided to you yesterday because the markets pretty much moved exactly as I had expected. As you may recall, I wrote about the analogy between now and early August in the following way (I’m putting the key part in bold): The situation now appears to be the same as it was at the beginning of August, where the bottom also took several days to form, but when the USD Index finally moved higher once again, gold plunged. To be precise, back then, the bottom formed over 5 trading days, and yesterday was the fifth trading day of the current bottom. On the sixth day – back then – the USDX did very little and gold declined modestly, and it was the seventh day when the action really started. And… the short-term decline was over on the very next day. It was not easy to catch this decline if one wanted to wait for a big confirmation that it was indeed taking place. It seems that the same – patient – approach is justified in the current situation. The RSI indicator (upper part of the chart) continues to confirm this similarity. Yesterday, the USD Index ended the session 0.13 higher, so – just as in early August – it moved very little. Gold declined modestly back then, and, well, it moved lower by $13.40 yesterday, so it seems that it fits well. Gold is down by $6 in today’s pre-market trading (at the moment of writing these words), so it seems that history might repeat itself to a very big degree. If it repeated itself to the letter, we would have a $100+ decline in gold this week. But since history rhymes more than it repeats, I think it’s more realistic to simply expect gold to fall substantially soon, without giving the decline just 2 days to materialize. The situation now appears to be the same as it was at the beginning of August, where the bottom also took several days to form, but when the USD Index finally moved higher once again, gold plunged. To be precise, back then, the bottom formed over 5 trading days, and yesterday was the fifth trading day of the current bottom. On the sixth day – back then – the USDX did very little and gold declined modestly, and it was the seventh day when the action really started. And… the short-term decline was over on the very next day. It was not easy to catch this decline if one wanted to wait for a big confirmation that it was indeed taking place. It seems that the same – patient – approach is justified in the current situation. The RSI indicator (upper part of the chart) continues to confirm this similarity. Yesterday, the USD Index ended the session 0.13 higher, so – just as in early August – it moved very little. Gold declined modestly back then, and, well, it moved lower by $13.40 yesterday, so it seems that it fits well. Gold is down by $6 in today’s pre-market trading (at the moment of writing these words), so it seems that history might repeat itself to a very big degree. If it repeated itself to the letter, we would have a $100+ decline in gold this week. But since history rhymes more than it repeats, I think it’s more realistic to simply expect gold to fall substantially soon, without giving the decline just 2 days to materialize. To explain, the green line above tracks the GDXJ ETF from the beginning of 2013 to the end of 2015. If you analyze the left side of the chart, you can see that when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted at tapering on May 22, 2013, the GDXJ ETF declined by 32% from May 22 until the taper began on Dec. 18. Moreover, the onslaught didn’t end there. Once the taper officially began, the GDXJ ETF enjoyed a relief rally (similar to what we’re witnessing now) as long-term interest rates declined, and the PMs assumed that the worst was in the rearview. All in all, the technical picture for the precious metals sector looks bearish, even though the recent short-term corrective upswing might make one think otherwise. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chief Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

EURUSD cuts through resistanceThe euro surges as the market prices in inflation pressure despite the ECB’s dovish message.Bullish candles have pushed the single currency above the triple top (1.1665) which sits on the 30-day moving average, paving the way for a reversal. Strong momentum is a sign of short-covering from those caught on the wrong side of the market.An overbought RSI could temporarily limit the range of the rally. However, renewed optimism may send the pair to the daily resistance at 1.1750. 1.1620 is the support in case of a pullback.USDJPY tests demand zoneThe Japanese yen recouped losses after the BOJ sees a weak yen as positive for Japan’s economy. And the US dollar has come under pressure near a four-year high.An overbought RSI on the daily chart points to an overextension. On the hourly level, the pair has found bids around 113.30 near a previous consolidation range.A bearish breakout would test the round number at 113.00, which lies on the 20-day moving average and is critical in safeguarding the uptrend. The bulls need to lift 114.30 before they may resume the rally.US 30 pulls backs for supportThe Dow Jones consolidates as investors digest earnings near the all-time high.A breakout above the August peak at 35600 and a bullish MA cross from the daily timeframe indicate an acceleration on the upside as the rally continues.Pullbacks could be an opportunity to buy low. An overbought RSI has triggered a minor sell-off below 35600, shaking out weaker hands in the process. A drop below 35450 would lead to the psychological level of 35000. 35830 is now a fresh resistance.

One-sided S&P 500 session, perhaps a bit too much – the bulls are likely to face issues extending gains when VIX is examined. The stock market sentiment remains mixed, and one could easily be pardoned for expecting larger gains on yesterday‘s magnitute of the dollar slump. And long-dated Treasuries barely moved – their daily candle approximates nicely the volatility one as both give the impression of wanting to move a bit higher while their Thursday‘s move was a countertrend one.Not even value was able to surge past its Wednesday‘s setback, which makes me think the bears can return easily. At the same time, tech stepped into the void, and had a positive day, balancing the dowwnside S&P 500 risks significantly. The very short-term outlook in stocks is unclear, and choppy trading between yesterday‘s highs and 4,550 shouldn‘t be surprising today.At the same time, precious metals could have had a much stronger day – but the sentiment was risk-off in spite of the tanking dollar and doubted yields as the rising tech and gold at the expense of silver illustrate. Miners recent outperformance was absent just as much as commodities vigor with the exception of copper. And it‘s more celebrations in the red metal following its steep and far reaching correction, that‘s the part of missing ingredients as much as fresh inflation fears (yes, adding to risk-off mood, inflation expectations declined yesterday).All in all, it looks like a case of abundance of caution prior to next week‘s Fed, compounded by sluggish incoming data, where just cryptos are ready to move first.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 decisively reversed upwards, but the daily indicators barely moved – the consolidation doesn‘t look to be over.Credit MarketsHYG entirely reversed Wednesday‘s plunge but the low volume flashes amber light at least – the bulls are likely to stop for a moment.Gold, Silver and MinersGold upper knot doesn‘t bode as well as it did the prior Friday, and the same goes for miners. The yellow metal‘s strength was sold into, making it short-term problematic for the bulls.Crude OilCrude oil held $81 on not too shabby volume but the bulls are still on the defensive until $84 is overcome. When XLE starts outperforming VTV again, the outlook for black oil would improve considerably. Natgas falling this steeply yesterday isn‘t inspiring confidence either.CopperCopper finally reversed, and the upswing is a promising sign even though I would like to have seen higher volume. Again, the red metal remains well positioned to join in the commodities upswing once the taper announcement is absorbed.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin bulls are pausing while Ethereum ones keep running – cryptos are providing an encouraging sign (to be taken up by real assets) going into the Fed next week.SummaryChoppy trading in stocks is likely to continue even though 4,610s are closer than a break below 4,550s at the moment. Much nervousness in the markets before the coming Wednesday – cash is being raised while the dollar suffered in spite of daily move up in yields. Risk-off hasn‘t clearly retreated as seen in sectoral performance and VIX – time to be cautious while waiting out this soft patch in commodities that are most likely to return to scoring gains, accompanied by the retreating dollar.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

USDCHF bounces off demand zoneThe US dollar inched higher after a solid core PCE reading in September. The pair is testing the major demand area from last August’s lows (0.9100).A bearish MA cross on the daily chart has dented buyers’ optimism. An oversold RSI may attract a ‘buying-the-dips’ crowd while short-term sellers take some chips off the table.However, 0.9190 could be a challenging hurdle to lift as the bears would be eager to fade the rebound. A new round of sell-off would send the greenback to the daily support at 0.9020.EURGBP attempts to reboundThe euro found support from better-than-expected growth and inflation data. A bullish RSI divergence suggests that the downtrend may have lost its momentum.A break above 0.8470 has prompted sellers to cover some of their bets. But the RSI’s overbought situation has so far tempered the optimism.The bulls will need to lift offers around 0.8485 which sits on the 30-day moving average before they could turn the tables. Failing that, a drop below the demand zone between 0.8400 and 0.8420 would deepen the correction.GER 40 finds supportThe Dax 40 bounces back thanks to upbeat European stock earnings.A bullish MA cross on the daily chart is a sign of recovery. Though the index has hit a speed bump at 15775 which is a major resistance from last September’s sell-off.The drop below 15630 has led intraday buyers to bail out, driving short-term price action downward. As the RSI ventured into the oversold zone, the pullback attracted dip-buying interest at the lower range of the previous consolidation (15400). This is a congestion area along the MA cross.

  Stocks retraced their short-term decline yesterday, but today we may see a lower opening following the earnings releases. Is this a topping pattern? The S&P 500 index gained 0.98% on Thursday, Oct. 28, as it retraced its whole Tuesday’s-Wednesday’s decline to the support level of 4,550. It got back to the Tuesday’s record high of 4,598.53 yesterday. The daily close was just 2 points below that level. The stock market is still reacting to quarterly corporate earnings releases. Yesterday we got the releases from AAPL and AMZN, among others. But the first reaction to their numbers was negative. The market seems overbought in the short-term it is most likely fluctuating within a topping pattern. The nearest important support level is at 4,550, and the next support level is at 4,520-4,525, marked by the previous Wednesday’s daily gap up of 4,520.40-4,524.40. On the other hand, the resistance level is at around 4,600, marked by the new record high. Despite reaching new record highs, the S&P 500 remained below a very steep week-long upward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq Reached New Record! Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index was relatively weaker than the broad stock market recently, as it was still trading below the early September record high of around 15,700. But this week it rallied to the new record highs. The nearest important support level is now at 15,700, marked by the recent resistance level, as we can see on the daily chart: Dow Jones Is Relatively Weaker Again The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached the new record high of 35,892.92 on Tuesday and on Wednesday it sold off to around 35,500. Yesterday the blue-chip index didn’t retrace that decline. The support level remains at around 35,500-35,600, marked by the previous local highs, as we can see on the daily chart: Apple Rallied Before Earnings, and Microsoft Went Hyperbolic Let’s take a look at the two biggest stocks in the S&P 500 index, AAPL and MSFT. Apple released its earnings after yesterday’s close and the first reaction was negative. But the stock gained 2.50% at yesterday in regular trading hours. The resistance level remains at $154-156. It is still trading below the record highs, as we can see on the daily chart: Now let’s take a look at the MSFT. It rallied after Tuesday’s quarterly earnings release and on Wednesday it reached the record high price of $326.10. The market remained above its month-long upward trend line. Microsoft extends its long-term hyperbolic move higher. This week it got close to the $2.5 trillion dollar market cap! So the question is how much higher can it get? And it’s already not that cheap at all with its price to earnings ratio of around 40. Conclusion The S&P 500 index retraced its Tuesday’s-Wednesday’s decline yesterday and it got close to the Tuesday’s record high of 4,598.53. For now, it looks like a consolidation following an uptrend. However, the market is still overbought and we may see a bigger downward correction. There may be a profit-taking action following quarterly earnings releases. Today the main indices are expected to open 0.2-0.8% lower after yesterday’s earnings releases from AAPL and AMZN, and we will likely see an intraday correction. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 got close to the record high yesterday but today it may retrace some of the advance. A speculative short position is justified from the risk/reward perspective. We are expecting a 3% or higher correction from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Not confirmed by bonds, the S&P 500 advances regardless – the daily yields retreat is powering tech while value goes nowhere. Higher beta sectors such as financials are sputtering, revealing the defensive nature of the stock market advance – at least to this degree, stocks and bonds are in tune. Yes, risk-off is winning these days, and it would be only up to VIX to join the fray, but the key volatility measure is likely to keep complacently trading around the 17 level. In other words, not too far from the bottom of its recent range, and not indicating imminent change of the bull market character.While we have seen much better market breadth readings in the years gone by (the narrow leadership is reminiscent perhaps of the late 1990s), there‘s no chart proof of the behemoths being in kind of getting really serious trouble (with the possible exception of Facebook). True, smallcaps have largely gone sideways over the many months, but midcaps are already breaking higher, and that won‘t be unnoticed by the Russell 2000 (soon to follow).The bears haven‘t thus far made any serious appearance, and 4,550s held with ease in spite of the dollar reversing Thursday‘s losses. All the more encouraging is the relative strength of both gold and silver when faced with one more daily decline in inflation expectations – as if balancing before the Fed act changes anything.I ask, how serious can they be about delivering on taper promises when prices increase relentlessly (look at Europe too), these are being blamed on supply chain bottlenecks without acknowledging their persistent and not transitory nature, and the real economy is markedly slowing down (not in a recession territory, but still)?Looking at commodities, we‘re reliving the 1970s, and cryptos are still the key beneficiary of monetary largesse – precious metals aren‘t a dead asset class in the least, they just frontrunned it all and peaked in August 2020 as I alerted you to back then. Fresh upswing is in the making.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 once again decisively reversed upwards, and even though the daily indicators are weakening, the rally can easily go on. Dips are to be bought.Credit MarketsHYG keeps acting weak, but this is being overlooked by stocks as tech remains driven by NYFANG.Gold, Silver and MinersGold‘s lower knot indicates accumulation, and miners reversing higher would be a great confirmation. Regardless, such a result when dollar rose steeply and yields with inflation expectations retreated, is encouraging.Crude OilCrude oil again held $81, looks set to return above $84 again. XOI and XLE weakness has to be understood in terms of the challenged VTV, and isn‘t here to stay.CopperCopper is providing a buying opportunity, and looks likely to join other base metals (especially alluminum) and broader commodity index strength as agrifoods wake up too.Bitcoin and EthereumThe Bitcoin and Ethereum upswings can go on – it looks to be a question of a relatively short time when cryptos are done with the sideways correction.SummaryS&P 500 indeed got at 4,610s instead of suffering setbacks, and the same holds true for real assets next. Across the board, these have performed well in spite of the USD upswing and decreasing inflation expectations, which I chalk down to pre-Wednesday positioning. Therefore, I‘m taking the high beta weakness with a pinch of salt, and the same goes for precious metals or the economic cycle sensitive copper. As for oil, the U.S. economy can (and will have to) withstand prices higher than $90 as 2022 arrives.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

USDCAD consolidates at 4-month lowThe US dollar retreats ahead of this week’s FOMC as traders await further catalysts. Price action has stabilized above 1.2300, a major demand zone from last summer.1.2430 from the latest sell-off is a key resistance as it coincides with the 20-day moving average. The current consolidation suggests the market’s indecision, though overall sentiment remains bearish.A deeper correction would send the greenback to 1.2150. A bullish breakout on the other hand may challenge the supply area around 1.2550.EURJPY tests key supportThe euro struggles to bounce higher after Germany’s lackluster retail sales in September.The pair has come under pressure at 133.45 near June’s peak. The subsequent retracement has met some bids at 131.60 when the RSI dipped into the oversold territory.The triple test of the support level indicates solid buying interest. However, the bulls will need to push above 132.80 before the uptrend could resume.On the downside, a bearish breakout would extend the sideways action towards 130.80 which sits on the 30-day moving average.US 100 falls back for supportThe Nasdaq 100 surges to a new all-time high as investors expect the strong growth trend to continue. The break above the previous peak at 15700 has put the index back on an upward trajectory.A bullish MA cross on the daily chart is a confirmation of the market’s optimism. However, a brief pullback is necessary to let the bulls catch their breath.15620 is the immediate support. Further down, 15280 is key daily support on the 20-day moving average. The psychological level of 16000 would be the next target rebound.

  As a new month begins, the downtrend in the GDX and GDXJ should resume. When will a new buying opportunity finally present itself? Let’s compare the behavior of the GDX ETF and the GDXJ ETF. Regarding the former, the GDX ETF reversed sharply after reaching its 200-day moving average and a confluence of bearish indicators signaled a similar outcome. For context, I wrote on Oct. 25: Small breakout mirrors what we witnessed during the senior miners’ downtrend in late 2020/early 2021. Moreover, when the GDX ETF’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) approached 70 (overbought conditions) back then, the highs were in (or near) and sharp reversals followed. Furthermore, after a sharp intraday reversal materialized on Oct. 22, the about-face is similar to the major reversal that we witnessed in early August. On top of that, with the GDX ETF’s stochastic indicator also screaming overbought conditions, the senior miners are likely to move lower sooner rather than later. Also, please note that the GDX ETF reversed right after moving close to its 200-day moving average, which is exactly what stopped it in early August. Yes – that’s another link between now and early August. And after declining sharply on Oct. 28 and Oct. 29, the senior miners further cemented their underperformance of gold. Moreover, with relative underperformance often a precursor to much larger declines, the outlook for the GDX ETF remains quite bearish. Please see below: As further evidence, the GDX ETF’s four-hour chart offers some important insights. To explain, the senior miners failed to hold their early September highs and last week’s plunge removed any and all doubt. Likewise, the GLD ETF suffered a sharp drawdown and its recent breakout was also invalidated. Furthermore, my three-day rule for confirming breakouts/breakdowns proved prescient once again. Conversely, investors that piled into mining stocks are likely regretting their decision to act on unconfirmed signals. And as we look ahead, the technicals imply that caution is warranted and more downside is likely for the GDX ETF. As for the GDXJ ETF, the gold junior miners suffered a similar swoon last week. For context, I warned of the prospective reversal on Oct. 25. I wrote: The junior miners’ RSI also signals overbought conditions and history has been unkind when similar developments have occurred. Moreover, the GDXJ ETF’s recent rally follows the bearish patterns that we witnessed in late May and in early 2021. Likewise, the intraday reversal on Oct. 22 mirrors the bearish reversal from early August and a confluence of indicators support a continuation of the downtrend over the coming weeks. And as we begin a new month, the GDXJ ETF’s downtrend should resume and a retracement to the ~35 level will likely materialize in the coming months. Please see below: Finally, while I’ve been warning for months that the GDXJ/GDX ratio was destined for devaluation, the ratio has fallen precipitously in 2021. And after the recent short-term rally, the ratio’s RSI has reached extremely elevated levels (nearly 73) and similar periods of euphoria have preceded major drawdowns (marked with the black vertical dashed lines below). To that point, the ratio showcased a similar overbought reading in early 2020 – right before the S&P 500 plunged. On top of that, the ratio is still below its mid-to-late 2020 lows and its mid-2021 lows. As a result, the GDXJ ETF will likely underperform the GDX ETF over the next few months. It’s likely to underperform silver in the near term as well. The bottom line? If the ratio is likely to continue its decline, then on a short-term basis we can expect it to trade at 1.27 or so. If the general stock market plunges, the ratio could move much lower, but let’s assume that stocks decline moderately or that they do nothing or rally slightly. They’ve done all the above recently, so it’s natural to expect that this will be the case. Consequently, the trend in the GDXJ to GDX ratio would also be likely to continue, and thus expecting a move to about 1.26 - 1.27 seems rational. If the GDX is about to decline to approximately $28 before correcting, then we might expect the GDXJ to decline to about $28 x 1.27 = $35.56 or $28 x 1.26 = $35.28. In other words, ~$28 in the GDX is likely to correspond to about $35 in the GDXJ. Is there any technical support around $35 that would be likely to stop the decline? Yes. It’s provided by the late-Feb. 2020 low ($34.70) and the late-March high ($34.84). There’s also the late-April low at $35.63. Consequently, it seems that expecting the GDXJ to decline to about $35 is justified from the technical point of view as well. In conclusion, mining stocks reprised their role as ‘The Boy Who Cried Wolf.’ And after overzealous investors rushed to their defense last week, another false alarm led to another bout of disappointment. Moreover, with the technical and fundamental backdrops for gold, silver and mining stocks continuing to deteriorate, lower lows should materialize over the medium term. As a result, we may have to wait until 2022 before reliable buying opportunities emerge once again. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

BTC in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, leg analysis:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Daily chart as of October 25th, 2021.From a pure price perception, it might seem that the consistency bitcoin holds in price bubbles might be of the same origin, but they are not. In 2009, the value of the coin was zero, and fans exchanged it more like reminding of a seedy Star Wars bar exchange of true fans for a new idea, technology, beliefs, and freedom. Even so, bubbles arose a year later, and the price was driven by extreme supply and demand imbalances due to ill-liquidity when news hit the media.Since these times, we have seen all sorts of traders, speculators, investors, banks, hedge funds, governments join the speculation in a profitable market. Each with their specific mindset, interests, and trading psychology. The latest shift is now the race of governments getting a hold on the worldwide dominance reign. They will be true hodlers. Before that last influx, the bitcoin market was dominated by pure speculators for the most part. In a sense, they were forced into this market to stay competitive. Wide swings were the result since there was little incentive to stay in this game for the long term or, in other words, taking the risk on the large downswings.One first step, identifying in which market and cycle one is competing, are comparing up-legs in size (percentage) and steepness (time).The daily chart above shows such measurements of the last two significant moves in bitcoin this year.It has taken bitcoin only three months to more than double in price.BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, Projections:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of October 26th, 2021.With governments and the wider population now being the last to come to the party, we will see a shift in the trading behavior of bitcoin. This needs adjustment in one’s trading style to be part of this craze for the virtual, decentralized future.One such shift in the process may be a reduction of retracements depth within the second leg from a weekly perspective. We have drawn a projection of the second leg highly conservative in the chart above. Conservative, since second legs are typically longer, and we only assumed an identical extension to the first leg (1=2=3 in length and angle). BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, time accuracy:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of October 26th, 2021.Bitcoins’ childhood days have long passed. Seedy bar purchases have changed for high liquidity and professional exchanges with advanced order execution functionality. The big guns sit on the table, and as such, trading has shaped up. The individual is now playing against the best in the world, like in any other asset class, and risk should be perceived as such.Nevertheless, a larger time frame play for wealth preservation and a hedge against inflation is controllable in risk. Market participation analysis allows for a better grip on what to expect and scales in on targets from a time perspective. The above monthly chart illustrates our view of a possible future. The logarithmic chart shows best what inherent strength bitcoin possesses.Bitcoin´s trading psychology:The largest group that is not invested in bitcoin yet is the more significant part of average citizens. Consequently, we will find ourselves in an extreme supply demand imbalance due to bitcoins fixed limit of 21 million coins. More importantly, we will discover new trading behavior with a new group participating, with new psychology. These purchases will be made by amateurs who are motivated by fear more than greed. This market participant will be a long-term speculator trying to hold on to his investment versus making a quick buck. We anticipate more moderate overall retracements percentagewise. As well, we expect steeper legs up. These will result in a different system needed to participate in a market with low-risk entry points.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Korbinian Koller|October 26th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, bitcoin consolidation, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

EURJPY tests key support. USDCAD consolidates at 4-month low 1.2430 from the latest sell-off is a key resistance as it coincides with the 20-day moving average. The current consolidation suggests the market’s indecision, though overall sentiment remains bearish. A deeper correction would send the greenback to 1.2150. A bullish breakout on the other hand may challenge the supply area around 1.2550. EURJPY tests key support The euro struggles to bounce higher after Germany’s lackluster retail sales in September. The pair has come under pressure at 133.45 near June’s peak. The subsequent retracement has met some bids at 131.60 when the RSI dipped into the oversold territory. The triple test of the support level indicates solid buying interest. However, the bulls will need to push above 132.80 before the uptrend could resume. On the downside, a bearish breakout would extend the sideways action towards 130.80 which sits on the 30-day moving average. US 100 falls back for support The Nasdaq 100 surges to a new all-time high as investors expect the strong growth trend to continue. The break above the previous peak at 15700 has put the index back on an upward trajectory. A bullish MA cross on the daily chart is a confirmation of the market’s optimism. However, a brief pullback is necessary to let the bulls catch their breath. 15620 is the immediate support. Further down, 15280 is key daily support on the 20-day moving average. The psychological level of 16000 would be the next target rebound.

The average investor is news-driven. As much as the Federals Reserve  (the Fed) might be criticized, this large investor group is not commonly doubting news. In other words, it has generally believed the Fed’s narrative that inflation is transitory. The bad news is rarely released shortly before Christmas. However, it would not surprise if tapering started in early 2022. And maybe not just begin but be more aggressive throughout the year as expected. With this, the narrative will change from a “we are not worried, it is transitory” to a “we need to deal with” regarding inflation. Therefore, this could easily be the fire to the fuse of the Silver rocket. We now see early signs of such a lift-off in price in recent silver price movements. Silver’s fuse is about to be lit. Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart, low-risk entry points: Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of October 30th, 2021. It isn’t only that the overall narrative on transitory inflation is starting to get holes. We like the silver play, for instance because gold is somewhat in the limelight in battle with bitcoin. Consequently, allowing for silver to shine while it is typically in the shadow. On top of it all, we find clear evidence that commodities with industrial use are likely in a long term bull market. This is a play where everything is coming together. A multi stream both in fundamental and technical edges stack upon each other. As of right now, we have identified four low-risk entry points on the daily silver chart, which are marked in bright green horizontal lines. We would take off 50% of the position near the US$26 mark to mitigate risk (see our quad exit strategy). Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, good risk reward ratio: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of October 30th, 2021. The weekly chart offers a low-risk opportunity as well. We illustrated above a play that assumes an entry point in the lower third quadrant of the yellow marked sideways zone. It would provide for a risk/reward-ratio between 1:1 and 1:2 towards the financing point. As well we assume an exit of half of the position at the top near US$28 of the yellow sideways channel (see our quad exit strategy). With two more exits of each 25% of total trade equity at targets US$34.83 and US$48.72, we find the weekly play to be conducive to our low-risk policy.  Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart, favorable probabilities: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of October 30th, 2021. With its most considerable weight, the monthly chart provides the necessary overview. It shows how likely a success rate to a long-term play outcome is. We find three dominant aspects supporting our aim for a bullish long-term play. Trend: The linear regression channel is marked in diagonal lines (red, blue, green). It shows a clearly bullish trend with a high likelihood of continuation. Support: The Ichimoku cloud analysis provides solid evidence of support to the recently established bullish tone in silver. Probabilities: Price highs from 1980 to 2011 built a double top price formation. As a result, it prevented prices from getting higher than the price zone marked with a white box. The third attempt of price reaching this price zone nevertheless has a much higher statistical probability of penetrating this distribution zone and allowing the price to go higher. Silver’s fuse is about to be lit: We find ourselves in challenging times. Certainly, not only in market play. One of the essential pillars to come out ahead is bending in the wind and staying flexible. Should the FED indeed raise interest rates to a degree non-reflected in the anticipated market price of speculators and come as a surprise, we might see a stock market decline next year of a substantial percentage. Consequently, this would temporarily drag silver prices down as well. We share methods in our free Telegram channel to build low-risk positions within the market that reduce risk through partial profit-taking. Our quad exit strategy allows us to hedge physical acquisitions by trading around these positions on smaller time frames in the silver paper market. Our approach provides a way to maneuver through a delicate environment to hedge against inflation and preserve wealth. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.

S&P 500 hesitation against weakening bonds – what gives? The yield curve keeps flattening, but long-dated Treasury yields seem again on the verge of another upswing, which hasn‘t propped up the dollar yesterday much. The only fly in the ointment of a risk-off atmosphere, was value outperforming tech. Overall, stocks haven‘t made much progress, and are vulnerable to a quick downswing attempt, which probably though wouldn‘t come today as the VIX doesn‘t look to favor it. Wednesday, that could be another matter entirely. Still, there is no imminent change to the stock bull run on the horizon – the focus remains on ongoing Fed accomodations, which s why: (…) The bears haven‘t thus far made any serious appearance, and 4,550s held with ease in spite of the dollar reversing Thursday‘s losses. All the more encouraging is the relative strength of both gold and silver when faced with one more daily decline in inflation expectations – as if balancing before the Fed act changes anything. I ask, how serious can they be about delivering on taper promises when prices increase relentlessly (look at Europe too), these are being blamed on supply chain bottlenecks without acknowledging their persistent and not transitory nature, and the real economy is markedly slowing down (not in a recession territory, but still)? Tomorrow‘s Fed taper announcement wouldn‘t change a lot – so much can (and will) happen in the meantime, allowing them to backpedal on the projections, making rate hikes even more of a pipe dream. The Fed isn‘t taking inflation seriously, hiding behind the transitory sophistry, and that‘s one of the key drivers of rates marching up, rising commodities, and surging cryptos. Look for more oil and natgas appreciation while copper goes up again too. Precious metals are still waiting for a catalyst (think dollar weakening when even rising rates won‘t provide much support, and inflation expectations trending up faster than yields) – a paradigm shift in broader recognition of Fed obfuscation and monetary policy being behind the curve. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 is entering a brief consolidation, with 4,590s being first support, followed by the high 4,550s (if the bears can make it there). Given though yesterday‘s sectoral rotation, that‘s not likely happening today. Credit Markets HYG keeps acting really weak, volume is picking up, and buyers aren‘t able to force at least a lower knot. Rising yields aren‘t reflecting confidence in the economic recovery, but arrival of stagflation bets. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold indeed swung higher, but needs more follow through including volume, otherwise we‘re still waiting for the catalysts mentioned at the opening part of today‘s analysis, which would also help the silver to gold ratio move higher. Crude Oil Crude oil keeps going up again,and is likely to extend gains above $84 even as this level presents a short-term resistance. Copper Copper buying opportunity is still here, and the red metal is primed to play catch up to the CRB Index again. Probably not so vigorous as before, and taking more time to unfold, but still. Bitcoin and Ethereum The Bitcoin and Ethereum upswings can and do go on – as stated yesterday, it was a question of a relatively short time when cryptos are done with the sideways correction. Summary S&P 500 is likely to pause today, and the bond market performance would be illuminating. Ideally for the bulls, some semblance of stabilization would occur, tipping the (bullish) hand for tomorrow. That‘s the big picture view - the very initial reaction to taper announcement would likely be disappointing, and eventually reversed. Cryptos, commodities (first oil, then copper) would react best, with precious metals figuring it out only later. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

S&P 500 quick downswing attempt indeed didn‘t come – fresh highs were confirmed by bonds. Even if just on a daily basis, that‘s where the bias is – long stocks still, but with a wary eye as Treasuries and corporate bonds need to kick in on a more than daily basis. I‘m taking it as that the bullish expectations for today are really high – so much so that better than expected non-farm employment change resulted in a sell the news reaction. So, how does that line up with today‘s FOMC? Dovish undertones are obviously expected – at least in attempting to sweep the hot inflation under the rug, spinning it somehow else than with the tired transitory horse. Discredited one too. So, how would the taper message be delivered, and could it go as far as $15bn a month asset purchase reduction while avoiding rate hike mentions as much as possible? Even if $15bn is indeed the announced figure, I‘m looking for the Fed to soften it before it can run its course, i.e. before 2H 2022 arrives – the economy isn‘t in such a great shape to take it, and the fresh spending bill (whatever the price tag), needs central bank‘s support too. Let‘s recall my yesterday‘s words about how that‘s likely to translate into market moves: (…) Overall, stocks haven‘t made much progress, and are vulnerable to a quick downswing attempt, which probably though wouldn‘t come today as the VIX doesn‘t look to favor it. Wednesday, that could be another matter entirely. Still, there is no imminent change to the stock bull run on the horizon – the focus remains on ongoing Fed accomodations. Tomorrow‘s Fed taper announcement wouldn‘t change a lot – so much can (and will) happen in the meantime, allowing them to backpedal on the projections, making rate hikes even more of a pipe dream. The Fed isn‘t taking inflation seriously, hiding behind the transitory sophistry, and that‘s one of the key drivers of rates marching up, rising commodities, and surging cryptos. Look for more oil and natgas appreciation while copper goes up again too. Precious metals are still waiting for a catalyst (think dollar weakening when even rising rates won‘t provide much support, and inflation expectations trending up faster than yields) – a paradigm shift in broader recognition of Fed obfuscation and monetary policy being behind the curve. The Fed turning even more dovish than expected, would light the fireworks – they‘re likely to pay lip service to inflation similarly to Jun, but it won‘t pack the same punch. Inflation expectations haven‘t peaked, and the yield curve is about to steepen again as rates would mostly be moving higher. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 keeps rising, and is setting itself up for a brief disappointment. We aren‘t though making a top with capital t. Credit Markets Universal risk-on move in the credit market, on volume that didn‘t disappoint, which just confirms the bulls‘ overall technical advantage. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold downswing left a lot to be desired – we aren‘t likely staring at a true slide next. I actually look for silver (and the cyclically sensitive commodities such as copper, and also oil) to outperform gold in the wake of the Fed move. Crude Oil Crude oil didn‘t move much on a closing basis, but the bulls need more time to retake the reins. Copper Copper really doesn‘t want to decline, and remains slated to play catch up to the CRB Index again. The improving bullish outlook requires just time now – selling volume is drying up, tellingly... Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum bulls haven‘t yielded, and keep the overall technical advantage. Should prices dip below $58K in BTC without solid buying materializing, now that would make me wary. But the Fed won‘t be hawkish., no. Summary Potential S&P 500 bear raid is approaching, and the more dovish the Fed would be, the shallower dip in stocks can be expected. Yes, the bulls keep having the upper hand – credit markets have behaved. As mentioned yesterday, that‘s the big picture view - the very initial reaction to taper announcement would likely be reversed higher. Cryptos, oil, copper would react best, with precious metals figuring it out only later – unless the Fed negatively surprises, in which case cryptos would be prone to wilder swings (but not downside reversal in earnest). Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

With the OPEC+ meeting on Thursday, oil looks to be in a corrective phase, as pressure is on for more crude. Are we looking at bearish winds ahead? Crude oil prices have started their corrective wave, as we are approaching the monthly OPEC+ group meeting on Thursday, with some market participants now considering the eventuality of a larger-than-expected rise in production. U.S. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: Inventory levels of US crude oil, gasoline and distillates stocks, American Petroleum Institute (API) via Investing.com Regarding the API figures published Tuesday, the increase in crude inventories (with 3.594 million barrels versus 1.567 million barrels expected) implies weaker demand and is normally bearish for crude prices. Meanwhile, in the United States, the average price of fuel stabilized on Tuesday after several weeks of increase, according to data from the American Automobile Association (AAA), however, that’s 60% higher than a year ago. Chart – WTI Crude Oil (CLZ21) Futures (December contract, 4H chart) In summary, we are now getting some context on how the oil market might develop in the forthcoming days, with some crucial events to monitor as they could have a strong impact on the energy markets, and particularly on the supply side. My entry levels for Natural Gas were triggered on Monday (Nov.1), and I’m updating my WTI Crude Oil projections. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

No S&P 500 pause to speak of – bonds support the buying pressure. The broad turn to risk-on has value holding up relatively well while tech remains in the driver‘s seat. The daily weakness in financials looks misleading, and as a function of retreat in yields – I‘m looking for stabilization followed by higher prices. Real estate though is starting to smell a rat – I mean rates, rising rates. Slowly as the Fed didn‘t give the green light, but they would acommodate the unyielding inflation.There was something in the taper announcement for everyone – the hawks are grasping at the possibility to increase taper pace should the Fed start to deem inflation as unpleasantly hot. I wrote about the dovish side I take already on Wednesday when recapping my expectations into the meeting.Coupled with non-farm payrolls coming in above expectations, the table is set to reassure the stock bulls that further gains are possible while the lagging commodities move up. Precious metals would continue recovering from the pre-taper anxiety, and miners with copper kicking back in, would be the confirmation. The dollar should welcome the figure corresponding to yields increase, buying a little more time.One more note on oil – its downswing is positive for the stock bulls as its retreat works to increase disposable income, and in the zero rates environment, kind of acts as a shadow Fed funds rate. Regardless, I‘m standing by the call for triple digit oil prices in 2022.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 fireworks are continuing with improving participation, and the path of least resistance remains higher.Credit MarketsUniversal risk-on move in the credit market still continues, and the long HYG knot isn‘t a sign of a reversal – the bulls merely got ahead of themselves, that‘s all.Gold, Silver and MinersGold easily reversed the pre-taper weakness, and so did silver. I‘m now looking for the miners to catch up, and a good signal thereof would be a fresh commodities upswing. No, CRB Index hasn‘t peaked.Crude OilCrude oil hasn‘t peaked either, and appears attracting buying interest already. While $80 were breached, the commodity is getting ahead of itself on the downside – the oil sector doesn‘t confirm such weakness.CopperCopper has stabilized in the low 4.30s, and an upswing attempt is readying – its underperformance of CRB Index would get reversed.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum consolidation goes on, and nothing has changed since yesterday – stabilization followed by slow grind higher is what‘s most likely next.SummaryS&P 500 stands to benefit from real economy revival, earnings projections and taper being conducted in the least disruptive way, apparently. Credit markets have made up their mind, and aren‘t protesting the risk-on sentiment, which has come from a temporary commodities retreat (hello, China). Inflation worries should though still return to the fore as the rising rates aren‘t as much a result of improving economy and yield spreads, which the precious metals are sensing already.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

In today's video, PR talks about yesterday’s GDX strength as today's GDX ETF chart is key for the gold since miners' forte often precedes the precious metal sector vigor. So, is the situation really bullish? Watch the video and find out: Sign up for today's Premium Video: https://bit.ly/3uW8iwZ Sign up for a 7-Day Free Trial here: https://bit.ly/3AmJlvT

Gold, after 18 weeks of being stuck in a maniacal Short trend without price really going anywhere, FINALLY broke the bonds of the M word crowd by flipping to Long -- but not without a mid-week scare: more later on that affair. But we begin by assessing the stark INSANITY besetting the parabolic performance of the S&P 500, +25% year-to-date. It settled yesterday (Friday) at 4698 (reaching 4718 intra-day), a record closing high for the seventh consecutive session. Such phenomenon has occurred but five other times in the past 41 years! So here's a multiple choice question for you: Ready? Across all those years (i.e. from 1980-to-date), what is the longest stretch of time between all-time highs for the S&P 500? â–  a) eight monthsâ–  b) just over three yearsâ–  c) slightly less than six yearsâ–  d) all of the above (for you WestPalmBeachers down there)â–  e) none of the above If having answered "e)", you are correct: the longest stint was almost seven-and-one-quarter years from 24 March 2000 through the DotComBomb up to 13 Jul 2007. 'Twas the complete antithesis of the current paradigm of an all-time high every single trading day. But wait, there's more: those of you who were with us way back in the days at AvidTrader may recall our technically having "mild", "moderate" and "extreme" readings of both oversold and overbought conditions for the S&P. Well, get a load of this: yesterday was the S&P's 12th consecutive day with an "extremely overbought" reading. During these 41 years, that has only happened once before, 36 years ago in 1985. And the price/earnings ratio then was a respectable 10.5x: today 'tis five times that much at 54.4x (!!!) easily more than double the S&P's lifetime median P/E (since 1957) of 20.4x. And still more: Every time the S&P moves from one 100-point milestone to the next, 'tis a FinMedia "big headline deal", albeit the percentage increase comparably narrows. Nonetheless, trading gains and losses are measured by the point, not the percentage. And from 1980-to-date, the S&P has gone from 100 to now 4700, (i.e. through 46 milestones. Upon having just achieved the 4600 level on 29 October, the average number of trading days over these past 41 years to reach each 100-point milestone is 236 (just about a year's worth). But now from 4600-4700 took just five days! Cue John McEnroe: "You canNOT be SERious!!" 'Course, every trend reaches a bend, if not its end. And whilst the market is never wrong, something will the S&P upend. You regular readers already know the "earnings are not there" to support even one-half the S&P's current level. Moreover, 'tis said when the Federal Open Market Committee does nudge up its Bank's Funds rate, 'twill be "Game Over" for the S&P, (something of which the Fed is very fearful). "But mmb, even a rise from just 0.25% to only 0.50% maintains a really low rate..." Nominally still low, yes Squire: but upon it occurring, the Fed shall have doubled the cost for every bank that comes to the borrowing window, from which one can then ask banking clientele: "How's that variable rate loan workin' out for ya?" And thus falleth the first domino. And the S&P. Have a great day. Gold had a great day yesterday in settling out the week at 1820. But as noted, 'twas not before a mid-week scare. With Gold wallowing on "The Taper of Paper" Wednesday -- down at 1758 (a three-week low) -- the tried-and-true, widely followed daily moving average convergence divergence (MACD) crossed to negative. Such previous 11 negative crossings had averaged downside follow-through of 86 points. Thus within that technical vacuum, another run sub-1700 was placed on Gold's table. What instead followed was a one-day whipsaw, Gold's MACD finishing the week with a positive cross, and even better, the weekly parabolic Short trend FINALLY being bust per the first Gold-encircled dot in our weekly bars graphic: FINALLY too Gold had its first Friday in five of not being flogged ostensibly by the M word crowd. Should they thus have left the building, in concert with both the daily MACD back on the positive side and the weekly parabolic again Long, the door is open for Gold to glide up into the 1900s toward concluding 2021. As for the five primary BEGOS Markets, here are their respective percentage tracks from one month ago (21 trading days)-to-date, the S&P having swiftly replaced Oil as the leader of the pack. Of more import, note the rightmost bounce for Gold and the Bond. Why are those two stalwart safe havens suddenly getting the bid? (See our opening commentary on S&P INSANITY): Meanwhile as we waltz into the waning two weeks of Q3 Earnings Season, of the S&P's 505 constituents, 426 have reported (450 is typically the total within the seasonal calendar), of which 340 (80%) have bettered their bottom lines from Q3 of a year ago when much of the world purportedly was "shut down". Thus such significant improvement was expected: "They better have bettered!" Yet as noted, our "live" P/E is at present 54.4x. Thus to bring earnings up to snuff such as to reduce the P/E to its lifetime median of 20.4x, bottom lines need increase by 167%: but the median year-over-year increase (for those 396 constituents with positive earnings from both a year ago and now) is only 19%. Thus for those of you scoring at home, a 19% increase is nowhere near the "requisite" 167%. "Look Ma! Still no earnings!" (Crash). Still earning to grasp good grace is the track of the Economic Barometer, which bopped up a bit on the week's headline numbers. To be sure, October's Payrolls improved with a decline in the Unemployment Rate and a jump in the Institute for Supply Management's Services Index. But with a return of folks to the workplace (excluding those who've post-COVID decided they don't need to work) came a plunge in Q3's Productivity combined with a spike in Unit Labor Costs. As well, October's growth in Hourly Earnings slowed and the Average Workweek shortened, such combination suggesting temporary jobs materially lifted the overall Payrolls number. Also less highlighted was September's slowing in Factory Orders, shrinkage in Construction Spending, and the largest Trade Deficit recorded in the Baro's 24-year history. Here's the whole picture from one year ago-to-date with the S&P standing up straight: To our proprietary Gold technicals we go, the two-panel graphic featuring price's daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left with the 10-day Market Profile on the right. And note the "Baby Blues" of linear regression trend consistency being abruptly stopped in their downward path thanks to Friday's "super-bar" -- Gold's best intra-day low-to-high run in nearly four weeks -- and the highest closing price since 04 September. As well in the Profile, price sits atop the entire stack, which you'll recall for the prior two weeks was at best a congestive mess. But to quote Inspecteur Clouseau, "Not any moooure...": As for Silver, she's not as yet generating as much comparable excitement. At left, her "Baby Blues" continue to slip even as price gained ground into week's end. At right, the price of 24 clearly is her near-term "line in the sand". Still, our concern a week ago of her falling into the low 22s has somewhat abated, albeit the daily parabolic trend remains Short; however a quick move to 24.700 ought nix that condition. "C'mon, Sister Silver!": So there it all is. We see Gold as poised to FINALLY move higher toward year-end, (barring a resurgence of the M word crowd). And we see the S&P as poised for its off-the-edge-of-the-Bell-curve INSANITY to cease, (barring an economic erosion that instead furthers the flow of free dough). After all, bad is good, just as Gold is always good. In that spirit to conclude for this week, here are three good bits from a few of the smartest (so we're told) people in the world: Betsey "With an e" Stevenson says with respect to folks not returning to the workforce post-COVID that "...It’s like the whole country is in some kind of union renegotiation..." That is True Blue Michigan-speak right there. But think about it: when you've got a) the upper labor hand, and b) the aforementioned free dough that you popped into the stock market to thus gain some 38% since the economy first shutdown, why work, eh? Besides, the feeling of marked-to-market wealth is a beautiful thing. Elon "Spacey" Musk now notes that Tesla has not contracted with Hertz to sell 100,000 four-wheel batteries. Recall when that deal first was announced, the price of TSLA went up many times more than the additional incremental return of the transaction. But hardly has it since retracted. 'Course, the company's Q3 earnings were "fantastic", in turn nicely bringing down the stock's P/E to just now 345.8x. And comparably as you already know, the only other two S&P 500 constituents classified as being in the sub-industry category of "Automobile Manufacturers" are Ford (P/E now 26.1x) and General Motors (P/E now 7.7x). But a shiny object that rolls, too, is a beautiful thing. Peter "Techie" Thiel has just opined that the soaring price of bits**t is indicative of inflation being at a "crisis moment" for the economy. 'Tis not ours to question this notion; rather 'tis beyond our pay grade to understand it. What we do understand is that THE time-tested (understatement) indicator and mitigator of inflation -- i.e. Gold -- is priced at such an attractively low level versus where it "ought" be (i.e. 3981 per our opening graphic's decree), that never again such a beautiful opportunity shall we see! Cheers! ...m... www.deMeadville.com www.TheGoldUpdate.com

S&P 500 embraced the dovish taper - $10bn a month pace gives the Fed quite a breathing room without having to revisit the decision unless markets force it to. The taper is as dovish as can be, with rate raising escaping attention. Talk of no rocking the boat, for the markets, economy and fiscal policy initiatives just can‘t do without. The more dovish scenario of my yesterday‘s presentation came true: (…) So, how would the taper message be delivered, and could it go as far as $15bn a month asset purchase reduction while avoiding rate hike mentions as much as possible? Even if $15bn is indeed the announced figure, I‘m looking for the Fed to soften it before it can run its course, i.e. before 2H 2022 arrives – the economy isn‘t in such a great shape to take it, and the fresh spending bill (whatever the price tag), needs central bank‘s support too. The initial reaction has been very positive in stocks, and overly weak in precious metals and commodities. The real assets downswings are though being reversed in line with my Tuesday‘s expectations – and in today‘s premarket tweets on the unfolding price moves. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 rose without any brief disappointment – the top with capital t clearly isn‘t in, so don‘t think about standing in the bulls‘ way much. Credit Markets Universal risk-on move in the credit market continues, and the sectoral reaction to rising Treassury yields is a very positive one. Bonds and stocks are obviously seeing through the taper fog. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold was afraid of the hawkish outcome, which had zero real chance of happening – and miners spurted higher decisively first. Let‘s see the initial and misleading weakness in real assets being reversed, one by one – and silver do great again. Crude Oil Crude oil has likewise flashed extraordinary weakness – one to be reversed with vengeance. The Fed can‘t print oil, and the energy crunch goes on as nothing has changed yesterday for black gold. Copper Copper gyrations don‘t change the fact the red metal is ready to swing higher next. Just wait for its reaction when broader strength returns to the CRB Index – we won‘t have to wait too long. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum haven‘t been jubilant about the dovish news, but haven‘t come down beforehand either. Stabilization followed by slow grind higher is what‘s most likely next. Summary S&P 500 benefited the most from the taper message delivery, and the bulls keep having the upper hand – with increasing confirmation from the credit markets. The very initial reaction to taper announcement – namely its bearish anticipation – is indeed being reversed higher within commodities and precious metals. No tantrum, no rocking the boat – and asset prices are going to love that. Get ready for rising yields that would gradually stop underpinning the dollar – patience with the latter. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Here is what you should consider when asking why it isn’t trading even higher. First, after an initial up-leg like this, a trend is set in motion, but it is just the beginning of a trend. It needs time to develop. Most of the reasons debated this year when silver stepped into the limelight were the reasons the traders anticipated fueling the first leg. A big part is that it takes time until the public digests the market, which is ahead of reality, a speculative prognosis on how the future might look. There is a trickle-down effect until silver can build up its second leg. From an active market speculator perspective, inflation is real, but years can pass until the crowd realizes what is going on. Then gold needs to move, which in turn awakens silver with a delay. Gold in US-Dollar, monthly chart, bull as bull can be: Gold in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 5th, 2021. The monthly gold chart above shows the strong bullish trend in gold over the last twenty years. Telltales are a higher high in 2020 versus 2011, and the price strength since. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart, getting ready: Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 5th, 2021. The weekly chart has just come alive to an exciting inflection point. A closer look reveals that price has successfully built a second leg from the US$1,680 double bottom price zone (yellow lines). The upcoming weeks should show if a double triangle formation (red lines) was severed now that the price is trading above POC support of a fractal volume study (white line). Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, looking good: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 5th, 2021. The weekly silver chart is bullish as well. Bulls have successfully defended the yearly range lows zone (slim white box). They mutually are attacking an overhead resistance with quite some might, and upcoming weeks might find price successful in that attempt. Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart, history as a guide: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 5th, 2021. The above monthly chart shows an excellent example of how much patience is needed to earn significant profits from a silver investment. In this case, silver initiated a range break in 1973, where prices tripled within a year. Much like silver’s recent move from March last year to the current top in February this year. It showed a similar percentage move. This first leg of a bullish trend required more than three years of investor’s patience before the second leg was initiated. Those patient enough to hold on were rewarded with a near thousand percent price increase.   Silver, patience pays: “It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting.”Nothing has changed in the last hundred years about the principle value of this quote by Edwin Lefèvre (Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, published in 1923). We are used to active participation in a process to earn one’s wages. In this aspect however, the market is counterintuitive. “The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money every day, as though they were working for regular wages.” Lefèvre again points towards patience and a state of inactivity being just right in market play. We find the last phase of silver in a sideways range if anything is encouraging to a substantial second leg up in the making, It will therefore reward the patient owner of his physical holdings. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.

Was the adage "buy the rumor, sell the news" also verified with that new trading position? It was Thursday (Nov. 4) that the following rumor had flourished: a possible coordinated action which was supposed to consist of drawing on the strategic reserves of several countries, including the United States, which were leading the dance. Meanwhile, our subscribers were just getting ready to go long around the $76.57-79.65 support zone (yellow band), with a stop placed on lower $76.48 level (red dotted line) and targets at $81.80 and $83.40 (green dotted lines). As a result, oil prices had contracted in stride (trading just into our entry area), just before the rumor effect faded shortly on Friday (Nov. 5), to push them back up. In fact, with oil prices picking up momentum on Friday, once again settling firmly above $80 per barrel, and with a market still showing doubts on the possible use of strategic crude reserves, the proposed trade entry on the black gold, triggered on Thursday – following my last post – was thus profitable since it already turned into a partial profit-taking at the end of the week. Then, on Saturday, Joe Biden said that his administration had the means to cope with the rise in energy prices, in particular after the OPEC+'s decision not to raise their production to more than 400,000 barrels per day. in a context of global imbalance between supply and demand. In addition, Joe Biden also insinuated that the organization (and its allies) might actually not do its best to pump enough volume of crude oil. Trading Charts Chart – WTI Crude Oil (CLZ21) Futures (December contract, daily chart) Now, let’s zoom into the 4H chart to observe the recent price action all around the above-mentioned levels of our trade plan: Chart – WTI Crude Oil (CLZ21) Futures (December contract, 4H chart) In summary, my trading approach has led me to suggest some long trades around potential key supports, as this dip on crude oil offered a great opportunity for the bulls to enter long whilst aiming towards specific projected targets. If you don’t want to miss any future trading alerts, make sure to look at here. . Moreover, for those interested in Forex trading, please note that I am currently preparing some new series about the co-existing links and relationships between commodities and currencies. Stay tuned – happy trading! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

S&P 500 paused to a degree, but bonds didn‘t – we‘re far from a peak. That though doesn‘t mean a brief correction (having a proper look at the chart, sideways consolidation not reaching more than a precious couple of percentage points down) won‘t arrive still this month. It‘s a question of time, and I think it would be driven by tech weakness as the sector has reached lofty levels. It‘ll go higher still, but this is the time for value and smallcaps. And when the dollar starts rolling over to the downside (I‘m looking at the early Dec debt ceiling drama to trigger it off), emerging markets would love that. And commodities with precious metals too, of course – sensing the upcoming greenback weakness has been part and parcel of the gold and silver resilience of late. Precious metals are only getting started, but the greatest fireworks would come early spring 2022 when the Fed‘s failure to act on inflation becomes broadly acknowledged. For now, they‘re still getting away with the transitory talking points, and chalking it down to supply chain issues. As if these could solve the balance sheet expansion or fresh (most probably again short-dated) Treasuries issuance (come Dec) – the Fed is also way behind other central banks in raising rates. Canada, Mexico and many others have already moved while UK and Australia are signalling readiness – the U.S. central bank is joined by ECB in hesitating. Don‘t look for the oil breather to last too long – black gold is well bid above $78, and hasn‘t made its peak in 2021, let alone 2022. As I wrote on Friday, its downswing that works to increase disposable income (serving as a shadow Fed funds rate in the zero rates environment), would prove short-lived. The real economy would have to come to terms with stubbornly high oil prices – and it will manage. The yield curve is starting to steepen modestly again, and fresh spending initiatives would breathe some life into the stalling GDP growth. Next year though, don‘t be surprised by a particularly weak (even negative) quarterly reading, but we aren‘t there by a long shot, I‘m telling you. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 looks getting ripe for taking a pause – the rising volume isn‘t able to push it much higher intraday. Credit Markets HYG strength indeed continues, and it‘s a good sign that quality debt instruments are joining – the reprieve won‘t last long though (think a few brief weeks before rates start rising again). Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver continue reversing the pre-taper weakness, and miners are indeed joining in. I‘m looking for more gains with every dip being bought. Crude Oil Crude oil hasn‘t peaked, and looks getting ready to consolidate with a bullish bias again. $85 hasn‘t been the top, and the energy sector remains primed to do well. Copper Copper is deceptively weak, and actually internally strong when other base metals are examined. As more money flows into commodities, look for the red metal to start doing better – commodities haven‘t topped yet. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum consolidation has come to an end, and the pre-positioned bulls have a reason to celebrate as my prior scenario– stabilization followed by slow grind higher is what‘s most likely next – came to fruition. Summary S&P 500 breather is a question of time, but shouldn‘t reach far on the downside – the credit markets don‘t support it. Commodities are catching up in the (dovish as assessed by the markets too) taper aftermath, and precious metals are sniffing the dollar‘s weakness a few short weeks ahead. With fresh money not needed to repair commercial banks‘ balance sheets, it flows into the financial markets, and the taper effects would be negated by the repo operations – yes, I‘m not looking for a liquidity crunch. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

While the greenback's failed breakout on Nov. 4th may seem bearish, it faced a similar situation in August and October, only to recover and achieve new highs. After the USD Index’s negative response to the ECB’s monetary policy meeting on Oct. 28, I warned on Oct. 29 that dollar bears were unlikely to celebrate for much longer. I wrote: Based on the rather random comment during the conference, the traders panicked and bought the EUR/USD, which triggered declines in the USD Index (after all, the EUR/USD is the largest component of the USDX). Was the breakout to new 2021 lows invalidated? No. The true breakout was above the late-March highs (the August highs also served as a support level, but the March high is more important here) and it wasn’t invalidated. What was the follow-up action? At the moment of writing these words, the USDX is up and trading at about 93.52, which is just 0.07 below the August high in terms of the closing prices. Consequently, it could easily be the case that the USD Index ends today’s session (and the week) back above this level. You’ve probably heard the saying that time is more important than price. It’s the end of the month, so let’s check what happened in the case of previous turns of the month; that’s where we usually see major price turnarounds. I marked the short-term turnarounds close to the turns of the month with horizontal dashed blue lines, and it appears that, in the recent past, there was practically always some sort of a turnaround close to the end of the month. Consequently, seeing a turnaround (and a bottom) in the USD index now would be perfectly normal. And after the forecast turned into reality, the USD Index surged above 94 and remains poised to resume its uptrend over the medium term. To explain, if we zoom in on the four-hour chart, it highlights the importance of the price action on Nov. 5. During the session, the USD Index hit a new 2021 intraday high before a small reversal occurred. This might seem bearish at the first sight (it’s a failed breakout, after all)… However, similar developments were also present in August and October. After the dollar basket attempted to make new highs and failed, the greenback eventually regained its composure and achieved the milestones. As a result, another 2021 high should occur sooner rather than later. Please see below: The first failed attempt to break above the previous highs triggered sizable short-term declines. This happened in August (marked with red). The second – September – attempt triggered only a small correction (marked with green) that was then followed by a bigger rally. Similarly, the – marked with red – October invalidation was followed by a sizable decline, and the current one (marked with green), is relatively small. And it’s likely to be followed by a short-term rally, just like the September correction was. On top of that, as you can see on the below chart, the current setup for the USD Index and gold mirrors what we witnessed in early August. Following its sharp summertime rally, the USD Index moved close to its 50-day moving average without reaching it. And after buyers stepped in, the USD Index resumed its uptrend and made a new 2021 high. Moreover, with a similar pattern and a similar reading on the USD Index’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) present today, the greenback’s outlook remains robust. I marked both cases with red, vertical, dashed lines below. More importantly, though gold, silver, and mining stocks’ upswings concluded once the USD Index bottomed close to its 50-day moving average in August and sharp drawdowns followed. Moreover, while gold, silver, and mining stocks’ recent rallies were likely underwritten by expectations of a weaker USD Index (it did fail to move to new highs, right?) , technical (as described above and below) and fundamental realities contrast this thesis. As a result, the 2021 theme of ‘USD Index up, PMs down’ will likely resume over the medium term. Please see below: Equally bullish for the greenback, the Euro Index remains overvalued and should suffer a material drawdown over the medium term. For example, the index’s previous lows, its 50-day moving average, and its declining resistance line combined to create major resistance and the Euro Index is now retesting its 2021 lows. As a result, the next temporary stop could be ~1.1500 (the March 2020 highs, then likely lower). For context, the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, and that’s why the euro’s behavior is so important. Please see below: Adding to our confidence (don’t get me wrong, there are no certainties in any market; it’s just that the bullish narrative for the USDX is even more bullish in my view), the USD Index often sizzles in the summer sun and major USDX rallies often start during the middle of the year. Summertime spikes have been mainstays on the USD Index’s historical record and in 2004, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014 and 2018 a retest of the lows (or close to them) occurred before the USD Index began its upward flights (which is exactly what’s happened this time around). Furthermore, profound rallies (marked by the red vertical dashed lines below) followed in 2008, 2011 and 2014. With the current situation mirroring the latter, a small consolidation on the long-term chart is exactly what occurred before the USD Index surged in 2014. Likewise, the USD Index recently bottomed near its 50-week moving average; an identical development occurred in 2014. More importantly, though, with bottoms in the precious metals market often occurring when gold trades in unison with the USD Index (after ceasing to respond to the USD’s rallies with declines), we’re still far away from that milestone in terms of both price and duration. Moreover, as the journey unfolds, the bullish signals from 2014 have resurfaced once again. For example, the USD Index’s RSI is hovering near a similar level (marked with red ellipses), and back then, a corrective downswing also occurred at the previous highs. More importantly, though, the short-term weakness was followed by a profound rally in 2014, and many technical and fundamental indicators signal that another reenactment could be forthcoming. Please see below: Just as the USD Index took a breather before its massive rally in 2014, it seems that we saw the same recently. This means that predicting higher gold prices (or the ones of silver) here is likely not a good idea. Continuing the theme, the eye in the sky doesn’t lie. And with the USDX’s long-term breakout clearly visible, the wind still remains at the dollar’s back. Please see below: The bottom line? With my initial 2021 target of 94.5 already hit, the ~98 target is likely to be reached over the medium term, and the USDX will likely exceed 100 at some point over the medium or long term. Keep in mind though: we’re not bullish on the greenback because of the U.S.’ absolute outperformance. It’s because the region is fundamentally outperforming the Eurozone, the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, and the relative performance is what really matters. In conclusion, the USD Index remains in the driver’s seat and new highs should materialize over the medium term. And while gold, silver and mining stocks have rode the S&P 500 higher recently, history has been unkind when the precious metals ignore technical and fundamental realities. Moreover, with gold, silver, and mining stocks’ strong negative correlations with the U.S. dollar standing the test of time, it’s likely only a matter of time before investors realize this as well. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Some might argue that it is best to sit on one’s hands and wait for a time when bitcoin prices are suppressed, and they have a point with the possibility of a market crash. And then again, they might have said that already when bitcoin was still trading at US$3,000 (we do not find it likely that bitcoin will ever retrace to those levels again.). Where are the uncertainties in bitcoins certainty? When you dissect a complex mechanism, you will always find a problem. It is like going to the bakery. It would be foolish to expect to get anything else but bread. Maybe it is better to look at a glass half full, meaning why not look at why bitcoin could be a certainty? BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, every buyer is a winner if he didn’t sell: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 9th, 2021. The monthly chart above certainly shows that whoever bought in the past has made a profit by now. Yet, we know “hodling” isn’t an easy thing. Personal risk appetite determines the number of bitcoin that can be held throughout these boom and bust cycles. We solved this dilemma through our quad exit strategy. And we teach low-risk position size building in our free telegram channel. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, new all-time highs: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Weekly chart as of November 9th, 2021. Now, moving forward to real-time, we can make out a similar bullish picture on the weekly chart after our glimpse in the past. Recent events provide data that substantiates bitcoin’s long-term certainty. A look at the last two weeks of October (marked in white) reveals a very brief battle with a minimal retracement level at the double top of all-time highs. Bears barely get a foot in the door, where typically bitcoin experiences significant retracements. To us, a clear sign that the rush is on. Big player money is now rushing to accumulate the necessary size they aim to hold on their books for the long term. Consequently, reducing volatility, one of the most feared aspects of bitcoin, which in times to come will attract more market players to this trading vehicle.   BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, six figures in 2022: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 9th, 2021. A look into the future from a monthly chart perspective is confidence building as well. With new all-time high prices printing at the time of publication of this chart book, our bet is still on bitcoin with a 63% over 47% chance that prices will advance from here rather than retracing to a substantially lower price level. So far, bitcoin has done nothing else but eradicate the uncertainties placed in its way. The most stubborn doubter would likely be happy if they had picked up a few coins when they traded at a dollar. What provides confidence for our forecast is the confirmation that bitcoin price retracements are now more modest. This lets us assume that the number of professional traders participating in this market has increased. In the monthly chart above, you can make out that closing prices of the month’s May, June, and July this year closed above the 50% Fibonacci retracement levels. A conservative retracement for bitcoins historical standards. We project for the near term that bitcoin will reach six-figure prices in mid-February next year. The uncertain certainty of bitcoin: From the anticipatory perspective, it seems evident that holding bitcoin is a prudent move with a look into the future. A hedge is needed once the risk is apparent to all, and the house of cards will tumble.  From a real-time perspective, we also find bitcoin to be a “must-own.” The charts above showed the strength with which bitcoin is aching to claim its turf, and it is never good to wait till “fear of missing out” kicks in, and low-risk entry opportunities become scarce.  And from a reactionary perspective, a look in the past, it is evident that anybody would like a piece of the action where bitcoin has nothing but a stunning history of unheard percentage moves and made it from eight cents to US$ 67,000 in just a dozen years.  There are always uncertainties in speculative ventures, but bitcoin itself is a certainty, not to be rationalized away for the years to come. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|November 9th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, bitcoin consolidation, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

EURGBP sees a temporary pullback The sterling inched higher as traders took profit after the BOE’s dovish shift last week. The rally above the supply area of 0.8570 is a sign of commitment from the buy-side. Strong momentum has forced the bears to rush for the exit door. 0.8620 is now the next resistance. Its break would bring the euro to September’s high at 0.8660, where a breakout may lead to a bullish reversal in the medium-term. In the meantime, an overbought RSI is causing a pullback. The base of the latest surge at 0.8465 is an important support. NZDUSD tests key resistance The New Zealand dollar recoups losses as risk appetite recovers. The pair has met buying interest at 0.7070 along the 20-day moving average. A bullish RSI divergence is a sign that the bearish momentum has waned. When this happens in a demand zone, it makes a rebound of greater significance. 0.7180 is a major hurdle ahead following a previously botched bounce. Its breach may resume the kiwi’s uptrend above 0.7220. The RSI’s double top in the overbought area may briefly limit the bullish impetus. GER 40 consolidates gains The Dax 40 continues to rally in hopes of a prolonged low-rate environment. The bulls are pushing towards 16200 after the index reached the milestone at 16000. However, the RSI’s multiple ventures into the overbought area and a bearish divergence indicate that the rally may have overextended. A temporary pullback would be necessary to let the bulls catch their breath. 15920 is the immediate support. Further down, 15730 on the 20-day moving average would be an area of interest.

Bitcoin is volatile and nosedives in some of these attacks. A historical look back illustrates how bitcoin each time is climbing higher right after: 2009 traded for free (zero value) between enthusiasts 2010 worth US$0.08 2011 from US$1 up to US$32 back down to US$2 2012 from US$4.80 up to US$13.20 2013 from US$13.40 up to US$1,156 and down to US$760 2014 – 2016 down to US$315 2017 up to US$20,089 2018 down to US$3,122 2019 up to US$13,880 2020 up to US$34,800 2021 up to US$67,016 And these last three years, bitcoin has been climbing higher, undeterred. BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, bitcoin, a true winner: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 2nd, 2021. The monthly chart above illustrates bitcoin’s winning characteristics. We can see harmonious swings. Retracements are substantial, but bitcoin shows a persistent tendency to outperform previous all-time highs. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, explosive recent history: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Weekly chart as of November 2nd, 2021. The weekly chart points towards more explosive moves recently. After a breakout of a multi-year range, we can see that bitcoin has started to move substantially due to more widespread adoption. Swing behavior is getting more harmonious. At the moment, we are in the midst of a battle between bears and bulls at a double top formation. Consequently, the following days to weeks will show who will come out ahead. The fact that bulls cling to their winnings for this long gives price in this pat situation a slight edge for the bullish corner.   BTC in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, stepping away from the noise: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Daily chart as of November 2nd, 2021. The daily chart can be pretty volatile. These smaller time frames are advised only to be traded if you are a professional. This applies particularly to struggle zones like the one we are currently in, for instance. Intraday swings can get substantial. In addition, once these battles between bears and bulls resolve, daily percentage moves can be staggering. Luckily, one doesn’t need to fear such challenging trading environments. To clarify, step up to larger time frames and reduce trade frequency and position size. Accept the risk based on adequate position size to your individual psychology and risk appetite. Consequently, buying for the long term will become much easier. It is essential as such to be familiar with a trading object’s typical behavior and, in bitcoins case, not to forget its ability to shine after a major setback. Bitcoin is climbing undeterred higher: Overall, bitcoins’ technical personality makes it an easy choice for one’s wealth preservation portfolio. Especially when options for wealth preservation investments are limited! This year’s strength towards gold and silver price performance had us increase bitcoins percentage allocation within the long-term portfolio. It fulfills two valuable functions to firmly find its place under historically much longer established counterparts. Scarcity for stability, and a more considerable performance potential necessary to protect against inflation. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.

Let’s face it, the metals are not having an easy time breaking out. Short-term rallies end up going nowhere and bearish signs are still in abundance. Yesterday’s session was once again quite informative, and so is today’s pre-market trading. In yesterday’s analysis, I emphasized the importance of the relative weakness that we just saw in mining stocks, so let’s start with taking a look at what mining stocks did yesterday. At first glance, yesterday’s performance might look like a bullish reversal, but zooming in clarifies that something else was actually in the works. Let’s take a look at the GDXJ 1-hour candlestick chart for details. Yesterday’s “reversal” was actually a breakdown below the previous (mid-October) intraday lows along with the verification thereof. The GDXJ moved below the above-mentioned lows and – while it moved back up – it ended the session below them. This is a bearish type of session. Also, if you were wondering about the high volume in the final hour of trading – that’s relatively normal as that’s when bigger trades tend to take place. And while mining stocks were busy verifying the breakdown, gold tried to break above its declining, red resistance line, and verify that breakout. While yesterday’s session didn’t bring much lower gold prices (and the invalidation), today’s pre-market trading makes it clear that the attempt to break higher failed. Just like I had indicated yesterday. This time the rising short-term support line is not there to prevent further declines as the breakdown below it was also confirmed. What does it mean? It means that gold is likely to fall, and quite likely it’s going to fall hard. Besides, silver price is after a major short-term breakdown, too. After a powerful short-term rally, silver had reversed, and now it broke below its rising support line. That’s yet another bearish indication. Please note that at first silver was reluctant to decline while mining stocks moved decisively lower, which was normal during the early part of a given decline. Silver did some catching-up action yesterday, but since miners are not showing strength, I’d say that we’re getting to the regular part of a short-term move, not close to its end. And the move lower is likely to continue, just as the move higher is likely to continue in case of the USD Index. The USDX is after a verification of the breakout to new 2021 highs and after an about monthly consolidation above them. This is a perfect starting point for a major upswing, and we’re likely to see one soon. All in all, while the outlook for the precious metals sector is very bullish for the following years, it’s very bearish for the following weeks. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

S&P 500 pause goes on, and bonds support more of it to come. Tech keeps thus far the high ground gained, but value is showing signs of very short-term weakness – and yields haven‘t retreated yesterday really. The correct view of the stock market action is one of microrotations unfolding in a weakening environment – one increasingly fraught with downside risks. To be clear, I‘m not looking for a sizable correction, but a very modest one both in time and price. It‘s a question of time, and I think it would be driven by tech weakness as the sector has reached lofty levels. It‘ll go higher over time still, but this is the time for value and smallcaps in the medium term.The dollar though isn‘t putting much pressure on stock, commodity or precious metals prices at the moment – such were my yesterday‘s words:(…) when the dollar starts rolling over to the downside (I‘m looking at the early Dec debt ceiling drama to trigger it off), emerging markets would love that. And commodities with precious metals too, of course – sensing the upcoming greenback weakness has been part and parcel of the gold and silver resilience of late. Precious metals are only getting started, but the greatest fireworks would come early spring 2022 when the Fed‘s failure to act on inflation becomes broadly acknowledged.For now, they‘re still getting away with the transitory talking points, and chalking it down to supply chain issues. As if these could solve the balance sheet expansion or fresh (most probably again short-dated) Treasuries issuance (come Dec) – the Fed is also way behind other central banks in raising rates. Canada, Mexico and many others have already moved while UK and Australia are signalling readiness – the U.S. central bank is joined by ECB in hesitating.And that‘s what precious metals would be increasingly sniffing out. Commodities are joining in the post-taper celebrations, and my prior Tuesday‘s market assessments are coming to fruition one by one. Oil is swinging higher and hasn‘t topped, copper is coming back to life, and cryptos aren‘t in a waiting mood either.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 pause is here, and all that‘s missing, is emboldened bears. They may or may not arrive given that VIX keeps looking lazy these days – either way, the risks to the downside are persisting for a couple of days at least still.Credit MarketsHYG strength evaporated, but it‘s on a short-term basis only. The broader credit market weakness would get reversed, but it‘s my view that quality debt instruments would be lagging.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver continue reversing the pre-taper weakness – the upswing goes on, but is likely to temporarily pause as the miners‘ daily weakness foretells. Still, I‘m looking for more gains with every dip being bought.Crude OilCrude oil bulls continue having the upper hand, no matter the relative momentary stumble in maintaining gains – the energy sector hasn‘t peaked by a long shot.CopperCopper is participating in the commodities upswing – not too hot, not too cold. Just right, and it‘s a question of time when the red metal would start visibly outperforming the CRB Index again.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum consolidation has indeed come to an end, and both leading (by volume traded) cryptos are primed for further gains. SummaryS&P 500 breather remains a question of time, but shouldn‘t reach far on the downside – the bears are having an opportunity to strike as credit markets have weakened, and there isn‘t enough short-term will in tech to go higher still. The very short-term picture in stocks is mixed, but downside risks are growing. The dollar is already weakening, much to the liking of commodities and precious metals – there is still enough liquidity in the markets as any taper can be easily offset by withdrawing repo money sitting on the Fed‘s balance sheet.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

US economy added 531,000 jobs in October, surpassing expectations. Gold reacted… in a bullish way, and jumped above $1,800! The October nonfarm payrolls came surprisingly strong. As the chart below shows, the US labor market added 531,000 jobs last month, much above the expectations (MarketWatch’s analysts forecasted 450,000 added jobs). So, it’s a nice change from the last two disappointing reports. What’s more, the August and September numbers were significantly revised up – by 235,000 combined. Let’s keep in mind that we also have the additions of 1,091,000 in July and 366,000 in August (after an upward revision). Additionally, the unemployment rate declined from 4.8% to 4.6%, as the chart above shows. It’s a positive surprise, as economists expected a drop to 4.7%. In absolute terms, the number of unemployed people fell by 255,000 - to 7.4 million. It’s a much lower level compared to the recessionary peak (23.1 million), however, it’s still significantly higher than before the pandemic (5.7 million and the unemployment rate of 3.5%). Implications for Gold What does the recent employment report imply for the precious market? Well, gold surprised observers and rallied on Friday despite strong nonfarm payrolls. As the chart below shows, the London P.M. Fix surpassed the key level of $1,800. To show gold’s reaction more clearly, let’s take a look at the chart below, which shows that the price of gold futures initially declined after the October Employment Situation Report release. Only after a while, it rebounded and rallied to about $1,820. It’s a surprising behavior, as gold usually reacted negatively to strong economic data. Until now, gold liked weak employment reports as they increased the chances of a dovish Fed that would continue its easy monetary policy. Now, something has changed. But what? Well, some analysts would say that nothing has changed at all. Instead, they would tell us that the latest employment report is not as strong as it seems. In particular, the labor force participation rate was unmoved at 61.6% in October and has remained within a narrow range of 61.4% to 61.7% since June 2020, as the chart below shows. The lack of any improvement in the labor force participation rate could be interpreted as a lack of full employment and used by the Fed as an excuse to leave interest rates unchanged for a long time. I’m not convinced by this explanation. “Full employment” does not mean that all people are working, but all people who want to work are working. And, as the chart above shows, the fact that after the Great Recession the labor participation rate didn’t move back to the pre-crisis level didn’t prevent the Fed from hiking interest rates in 2015-2019. There is also another possibility. It might be the case that investors are now focusing on inflation. The employment report showed that the average hourly earnings have increased by 4.9% over the past twelve months, raising some concerns about wage inflation and general price pressure in the economy. Remember: context is crucial. If the new narrative is more about high inflation, good news may be positive for gold if they also indicate strong inflationary pressure. Although I like this explanation, it’s not free from shortcomings. You see, stronger inflation concerns should increase inflation premium and bond yields. However, the opposite is true: the real interest rates declined last week (see the chart below), enabling gold to catch its breath. After all, the markets are expecting a more dovish Fed than before the announcement of tapering. This is a fundamentally positive development for the gold market. Having said that, it’s too early to declare the start of the breakout. If inflation stays high, the US central bank could have no choice but to hike interest rates next year. Also, although the recent jump despite strong payrolls is encouraging, gold has yet to prove that it can stay above $1,800. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

S&P 500 pause finally went from sideways to down, and might not be over yet. Credit markets aren‘t nearly totally weak – tech simply had to pause, so did semiconductors, and the Tesla downswing took its toll. Value though recovered the intraday downside, and VIX retreated from its daily highs – that may be all it can muster. I‘m looking primarily at bond markets for clues, and these reacted to the PPI figures with further decline in yields.At the same, inflation expectations are moving higher – the more you shorten the maturity, the higher they go, let alone RINF, their key ETF. Markets will be proven very wrong about the transitory inflation complacency – inflation rates aren‘t going to decline if you just leave them alone. And taper coupled with rate hikes hesitancy won‘t do the trick either.S&P 500 is still primed to go higher – the only question is the shape of the current consolidation. Liquidity is still ample, the banking sector is strong, and the Russell 2000 isn‘t really retreating. As stated yesterday:(…) The correct view of the stock market action is one of microrotations unfolding in a weakening environment – one increasingly fraught with downside risks. To be clear, I‘m not looking for a sizable correction, but a very modest one both in time and price. It‘s a question of time, and I think it would be driven by tech weakness as the sector has reached lofty levels. It‘ll go higher over time still, but this is the time for value and smallcaps in the medium term.Precious metals are consolidating – it‘s almost a pre-CPI ritual, but under the surface, the pressure to go higher keeps building. I‘m looking for a strong Dec in gold and silver, with unyielding oil and copper gradually waking up. Cryptos aren‘t taking prisoners either.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 finally declined, and the very short-term picture is unclear – is the dip about to continue, or more sideways trading before taking on prior highs? It‘s a coin toss.Credit MarketsHYG recouped some of the prior downside, but the LQD and TLT upswings give an impression of risk-off environment. Sharply declining yields aren‘t necessarily positive for stocks, and such is the case today.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver look like briefly pausing before the upswing continues – miners are pulling ahead, and the ever more negative real rates are powering it all.Crude OilCrude oil bulls continue having the upper hand, and oil sector is also pointing at higher black gold prices to come. Energy hasn‘t peaked by a long shot.CopperCopper went at odds with the CRB Index, but that‘s not a cause for concern. It‘ll take a while, but the red metal would swing upwards again.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum are briefly consolidating, and a fresh upswing is a question of shortening time. SummaryS&P 500 remains momentarily undecided, but the pullback shouldn‘t reach far on the downside – the bears are having an opportunity to strike on yet another hot inflation numbers. This isn‘t transitory really as I‘ve been telling you for almost 3 quarters already. Needless to say, the fire under real assets is being increasingly lit – more gains in commodities, precious metals and cryptos are ahead as inflations runs rampant on the Fed‘s watch.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

USDJPY attempts a bullish reversalThe US dollar broke higher after October’s CPI exceeded expectations.On the daily chart, the RSI has dropped back into the neutrality area. The greenback has secured bids around the 30-day moving average. An oversold RSI on the hourly chart attracted a ‘buying-the-dips’ crowd at 112.70.The latest surge above the psychological level of 114.00 has prompted sellers to cover their bets, paving the way for a bullish reversal above 114.25. Before that, an overbought RSI may lead to a pullback towards 113.05.XAUUSD breaks resistanceRising US CPI boosts the demand for gold as an inflation hedge.After being unable to clear the daily chart’s triple top at 1833 over the course of the summer, the precious metal has cut through the resistance like a hot knife through butter. High volatility suggests that sellers were quick to bail out.As momentum traders jump in, the bullish breakout would lead to an extended rally towards 1900. An overbought RSI may cause a limited pullback. In that case, 1823 at the base of the rally may see strong buying interest.USOIL retreats from resistanceWTI crude edged lower after the EIA reported a slight rise in US inventories. The price’s swift recovery above the sell-off point at 83.00 is an indication that sentiment remains overall optimistic.However, the previous peak and psychological level of 85.00 seems like a tough hurdle to overcome for now. An overbought RSI has triggered a temporary pullback with a break below 81.90. In turn, this is deepening the correction towards 79.30.Trend followers may see the limited retracement as an opportunity to stake in.

GBPUSD buried in bearish territory The pound continues to retreat after Britain’s growth fell short of expectations in Q3. A break below September’s low at 1.3420 has invalidated the latest rebound, putting buyers on the defensive once again. The RSI’s double bottom in the oversold area may ease the bearish push momentarily. A bounce could be an opportunity to sell into strength. 1.3500 is the immediate resistance. On the downside, renewed momentum would drive price action towards last December’s lows around 1.3200. AUDUSD struggles for support The Australian dollar came under pressure after the unemployment rate returned above 5% last month. The sell-off continued after a brief pause over the 30-day moving average near 0.7390, turning the latter into a fresh resistance. The lack of support suggests increasingly downbeat sentiment. The base of October’s bullish breakout at 0.7240 is the next support. The RSI’s oversold situation may cause a limited rebound from the round number at 0.7300, though it is likely to turn out to be a dead cat bounce. US100 tests demand zone The Nasdaq 100 suffers losses as high inflation dents risk appetite. An RSI divergence showed a deceleration in the uptrend, a sign that the rally has overheated. Subsequently, a drop below 16200 has prompted leveraged buyers to exit for fear of a correction. As the RSI inched into the oversold territory, the index saw bids near the breakout zone (15900) from earlier this month. The support-turned-resistance at 16200 is the first hurdle. Then the bulls will need to clear 16400 before the rally can resume.

S&P 500 declined, and not enough buyers arrived in my view. Still, we‘re likely to see a brief pause in selling, and that‘s giving the bulls a chance. Credit markets were a bit too beaten down by the troubled 30-year Treasury auction and Evergrande moving into the spotlight somewhat again. VIX managed another upswing, and doesn‘t point to the S&P 500 having gotten to an excessively bearish positioning just yet. I think some treading the water before stocks make up their mind, is most likely next. The downswing doesn‘t appear to be totally over, but we have arguably seen the greater part of it already. Tech isn‘t yet stabilized, but the increasing volume spells a pause in selling. I‘m still looking for clues to the bond markets. And it‘s clear that not even higher rates can sink the precious metals run – neither the late day rush to the dollar had that power. Miners continue behaving, and their daily black candle doesn‘t scare me – the realization of inflation not having peaked, and being as stubborn as I had been pounding the table since eternity, is working its magic: (…) inflation expectations are moving higher – the more you shorten the maturity, the higher they go, let alone RINF, their key ETF. Markets will be proven very wrong about the transitory inflation complacency – inflation rates aren‘t going to decline if you just leave them alone. And taper coupled with rate hikes hesitancy won‘t do the trick either. S&P 500 is still primed to go higher – the only question is the shape of the current consolidation. Liquidity is still ample, the banking sector is strong, and the Russell 2000 isn‘t really retreating. Precious metals are consolidating – it‘s almost a pre-CPI ritual, but under the surface, the pressure to go higher keeps building. I‘m looking for a strong Dec in gold and silver, with unyielding oil and copper gradually waking up. Cryptos aren‘t taking prisoners either. Crude oil is well bid in the $78 till $80 zone, and would overcome $85 – we aren‘t looking at a reversal, but at temporary upside rejection. Likewise copper would kick in with vengeance, and the shallow crypto consolidations are barely worth mentioning at all. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 decline continues, and the very short-term picture favors a little consolidation – the selling might not be over just yet. Credit Markets HYG, LQD and TLT – weakness anywhere you look, without tangible signs of stabilization, which makes any S&P 500 upswings a doubtful proposition. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver look to be just getting started – the growing money flows aren‘t sufficient to push prices lower. Miners are pulling ahead, and the ever more negative real rates coupled with surging inflation fears (and Fed policy mistake recognition) are powering it all. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls would have to step in around the $80 level again, and it seems they wouldn‘t find it too hard to do. Yesterday‘s downswing looks like a daily setback only. Copper Copper downswing was again bought, and I‘m not looking for the bears to make much further progress as commodities appear ready to turn up again regardless of temporary dollar strength. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are again briefly consolidating, and the bulls haven‘t really spoken their last word. It‘s a nice base building before another upleg. Summary S&P 500 is likely pausing for a moment here, and any further pullback isn‘t likely to reach far on the downside. The late day selloff in real assets was merely a brief, news-driven correction that would be reversed before too long, and precious metals are showing the way as inflation is moving back into the spotlight, and the talk about Fed‘s policy mistake is growing louder. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

S&P 500 really went through the brief pause in selling, but credit markets haven‘t stopped really. Their weakness continues, but is hitting value a tad harder than tech. Together with VIX turning south, that‘s one more sign why the bulls are slowly becoming the increasingly more favored side. Hold your horses though, I‘m talking about a very short-term outlook – this correction doesn‘t appear to be over just yet (the second half of Nov is usually weakner seasonally): (…) some treading the water before stocks make up their mind, is most likely next. The downswing doesn‘t appear to be totally over, but we have arguably seen the greater part of it already. … I‘m still looking for clues to the bond markets. There, it had been a one-way ride. TLT though is having trouble declining further, and that means a brief upswing carrying over into stocks, is likely. Primarily tech would benefit, and the ever more negative real rates would put a floor beneath the feverish precious metals run. Make no mistake though, the tide in gold and silver has turned, and inflation expectations aren‘t as tame anymore. In this light, there‘s no point in sweating the commodities retracement of late. True, the rising dollar is taking some steam out of the CRB superbull, but that‘s only temporary – I‘m looking for the greenback to reverse to the downside once the debt ceiling drama reappears in the beginning of Dec. Then, the Treasury would also have to start issuing more (short-term) debt, which would put a damper on any upswing attempts. Meanwhile, inflation would keep at least as hot as it‘sx been recently, and the Fed policy mistake in letting the fire burn unattended, would be more broadly acknowledged. What a profitable constellation for precious metals, real and crypto assets! Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 is bidding its time – the shallow very short-term consolidation continues, with the bears slowly running out of time (for today). Credit Markets HYG, LQD and TLT – weakness anywhere you look continues, but LQD is hinting at a possible stabilization next. Unless that‘s more broadly followed in bonds, any S&P 500 upswing would remain a doubtful proposition. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver were indeed just getting started – a relatively brief pause shouldn‘t be surprising. Any dips though remain to be bought. All in all, PMs are firing on all cylinders currently. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls keep defending the $80 level, with $78 serving as the next stop if need be. The consolidation starting late Oct would though resolve to the upside in my view – it‘s just a question of shortening time. Copper Copper participated in the commodities upswing – not too enthusiastically, not too weakly. The volume seems just right for base building before another red metal‘s move higher. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are still consolidating, and the relatively tight price range keeps favoring the bulls. Summary S&P 500 is looking at a mildly positive day today, but the correction isn‘t probably over just yet. With most of the downside already in, I‘m looking for bullish spirits to very gradually return. Precious metals will be the star performers for the many days to come, followed by copper and then oil. Crypto better days are also lyiing ahead. All in all, inflation trades will keep doing better and better. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  Is crude really set to break its highs again? Fundamental Analysis Crude oil prices reached their last highs on Wednesday before pulling back, initially supported by US crude stocks falling as shown by API figures, and afterwards cooled by contrary prospects from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Meanwhile, our subscribers were exiting their last oil trade, after the black gold hit the second projected target at $83.40 (see technical chart). U.S. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: Inventory levels of US crude oil, gasoline and distillates stocks, American Petroleum Institute (API) via Investing Regarding the API figures published Tuesday, the decline in crude inventories (with 2.485 million barrels versus 1.900 million barrels expected) implies greater demand and is normally bullish for crude prices (at least in theory). This was indeed the case yesterday, as those figures have supported crude prices in the first place. In the perspective of the figures to be published later today by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and according to the median of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, the market would expect an increase of 1.6 million barrels, so let’s see whether this figure will be confirmed. Chart – WTI Crude Oil (CLZ21) Futures (December contract, daily chart) In summary, with an oil market progressing (with some rallying limitations set by threats of the US administration to release some of its strategic crude reserves – to relieve the market by artificially increasing the supply) – there is currently no trade position justified from a risk-to-reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  Do small upswings really matter if one has medium-term goals in mind? Have the bulls come home?  The medium-term back and forth movement in gold continues. If I could make the markets move in a certain direction sooner, and end the prolonged consolidation, I would. However, I can’t, and the only thing that I can do is to report to you what I see on the markets and describe what my course of action will be. During yesterday’s session we saw more of what we’ve been seeing in the previous days. Gold moved higher, and gold stocks moved higher (but in a weak manner), and even though gold moved to new monthly highs, the HUI Index is not even back to its late-October highs. It’s boring, discouraging, and demotivating. But the only thing that we can do is to react to what the market is willing to provide us with. What do yesterday’s and today’s pre-market price moves tell us? First of all, the market tells us that the breakout to new highs in the USD Index is not being invalidated. I know that I’ve written this tens of times, but this factor remains intact and it continues to have very important implications going forward. These are bullish for the USD Index and bearish for the precious metals sector. Second, as I had already written earlier today, gold stocks are not showing strength relative to gold. The gold price just made new monthly highs and is now visibly above its October highs, but the silver price and – most importantly - gold stocks are not. In fact, they are just a little above their mid-October highs. Consequently, the thing that one tends to see in the final parts of a short-term rally remains in place. So, when will the decline in PMs finally continue? Based on what I wrote on Monday – in particular about gold’s reversal points, it’s likely to start soon – perhaps as early as this week. As a quick reminder, you can see gold’s triangle-vertex-based reversal on the chart below: And you can see gold’s long-term cyclical turning point on the chart below: The fact that gold moved to its recent medium-term highs is also a factor here. Resistance provided by those highs is quite likely to trigger a reversal in gold, and based on today’s pre-market action, it’s what we might already be seeing right now. The move lower is small so far, but all bigger moves have small beginnings, and given the reversal points and the resistance that gold just encountered, this could be “it”. Also, speaking of resistance levels, on today’s second chart I placed a red resistance line based on the previous highs. It might be tempting to view the price action below it as an inverse head and shoulders pattern, which could have bullish implications. However, let’s keep in mind that without a breakout above the neck level (approximately the previous highs), the formation is not yet complete, and as such it has NO bullish implications whatsoever, as it simply doesn’t exist yet. All in all, the outlook for the precious metals market is not bullish, even though the last several days / weeks might make one feel otherwise. Before viewing the recent move higher as something significant and/or bullish, please consider how tiny this upswing is compared to the decline in gold stocks between May and October. No market moves in a straight line, and periodic corrections are inevitable. It doesn’t make them a start of a new powerful upswing in each case, though. And if the part of the precious metals market that is supposed to rally the most at the start of a major upswing is so weak right now, then why should one expect the current upswing to be anything more than a corrective upswing within a bigger downtrend? Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  Stocks’ short-term rally came to an end this week and the S&P 500 index entered a consolidation along the 4,700 level. Is this a topping pattern? The S&P 500 index lost 0.35% yesterday, as it fell below the 4,700 price mark following two-day-long consolidation along the Friday’s record high of 4,718.50. The recent rally was not broad-based and it was driven by a handful of tech stocks like MSFT, NVDA, TSLA. The market seems overbought in the short-term and most likely it’s trading within a topping pattern. Today we may see another consolidation or a profit taking action following worse than expected inflation data release (the CPI monthly number came at +0.9% vs. the expected +0.6%). The nearest important support level is at 4,650-4,675 and the next support level is at 4,600. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,700-4,720. The S&P 500 broke below its steep short-term upward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq Lost 0.7% on Tuesday Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index broke above the 16,000 level recently and it was trading at the new record high. The market accelerated parabolically above its short-term upward trend line. But yesterday it lost 0.7% and closed below that trend line. The resistance level remains at 16,400, and the short-term support level is at 16,000, among others, as we can see on the daily chart: Apple’s Further Consolidation and Microsoft’s Potential Topping Pattern Let’s take a look at the two biggest stocks in the S&P 500 index, AAPL and MSFT. Apple continues to trade within a consolidation along the $150 level and it is still well below the record highs, and the Microsoft is close to breaking below its over month-long upward trend line. So the tech “megacaps” may be turning lower, as we can see on their daily charts: Conclusion The broad stock market went slightly lower on Tuesday and we may see a downward continuation this morning. The main indices are expected to open 0.2-0.5% lower following worse (higher) than expected consumer inflation number release. It looks like a topping pattern and we may see a downward correction at some point. There may be a profit-taking action following quarterly earnings releases. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 extended its uptrend last week, but since Friday it is trading within a short-term downtrend. But still no positions are justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

USDJPY hits temporary resistance The Japanese yen pulled back after a larger-than-expected GDP contraction in Q3. The US dollar is looking to hold onto its gains after a rally above 114.00. Sentiment has recovered and a surge above 114.45 around the October peak would resume the uptrend. However, the current rebound may lack the strength to clear the supply zone right away. An overbought RSI has held the bullish fever back. A breach below 113.70 would lead to a deeper correction towards 112.80, which is a key level to keep the rebound relevant. EURCHF struggles for support The euro bounced higher after the bloc’s industrial production beat expectations in September. The RSI’s oversold situation on the daily chart has attracted bargain hunters’ attention around 1.0530, a demand area from May 2020. Price action had three failed attempts to lift offers at 1.0600, a sign of strong selling pressure to keep the downtrend going. A bullish breakout may trigger a runaway rally as sellers seek to exit a crowded short bet. A bearish one would send the single currency to 1.0490. UK 100 tests support The FTSE 100 edged lower after active job postings in the UK hit a record high. The index came under pressure at the psychological level of 7400. A combination of an overbought RSI and its bearish divergence suggests that the rally was losing momentum. Sentiment remains upbeat and a pullback could be an opportunity to get filled at a better price. Trend followers may be waiting to buy the dip near the first support at 7315. A deeper correction would send the price to 7255 along the 30-day moving average.

Luckily, it is not necessary to time market entry and exit precisely. What is essential is calculating risk itself and that risk to expected returns. In addition, strict management of the trade itself is required. Gold versus Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart, risk versus reward: Gold versus Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 12th, 2021. That being said, instead of getting distracted by a narrative of policymakers who might prolong the inevitable even for years possibly, we focus on the technical aspects that cannot be “rationalized” away and will be unaffected by market influencers. One such fact is the market relationship between silver’s more giant brother gold. The chart above tries to illustrate that gold is trading 10% below its all-time high. On the other hand, silver is trading 50% below its all-time high. This discrepancy makes silver the more desirable play (better risk/reward-ratio). The difference will work like a loaded spring, and once released, silver will outperform gold by a multiple. Gold in US-Dollar, monthly chart, gold leading strongly: Gold in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 13th, 2021. Now that we have found the right vehicle for a wealth preservation insurance play, we are looking for additional factors. Physical acquisition is a clear prosperous choice. It protects against inflation and the risk possibilities inherent to fiat currency, with much historical evidence. That leaves us the question of entry timing. Especially since the physical purchase has a broader spread and a reactionary lag over spot price trading, which is pretty much instant. The chart above clarifies why we see there to be leeway regarding being “right.” It is less critical to pinpoint the absolute lows versus overall participation. Especially since a lack of physical silver availability, which is a possibility, would erase the whole play. The monthly gold chart above is a strong indication that precious metals might be breaking to the upside. With this month’s strength, price pushing against the upper resistance line (white line) of a bullish triangle, silver prices mutually trailing higher is likely. Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart, closely following gold: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 13th, 2021. With these necessary positive edges in play, we can now look at silver itself and look for possible low-risk entry points.The monthly chart shows mutual strength over the previous gold chart. Silver has pushed successfully through the problematic distribution zone around the US$24 price level. It still faces POC (point of control), the highest volume node of our fractal analysis, looming above US$26.03. With this many edges in our favor, we find this an excellent spot to add to physical silver holdings from a long-term holding perspective. Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, spot price play: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 13th, 2021. For a spot price play in the midterm time horizon, we are instead waiting for a possible price bounce of POC. A low-risk entry would be granted once the price retraces back into the US$24 to US$24.50 zone. Reyna Silver encounters multiple high-grade sulphide zones within 54.9 metres of near-source style skarn at Guigui: Silver, the waiting game: In market movement, we see expansion and compression, much like an oscillator. At certain times though, may it be a natural or man-made disaster, we can find ourselves in a stretched or amplified move. These times of abnormality from a time perspective require being well-prepared. Swift, disciplined actions following a clear planned roadmap are advised. An anticipated roadmap strictly followed. It is first a waiting game followed by quick action, both psychologically challenging environments. With physical acquisitions of metals, perfectionism in timing is paralysis. Not necessary to come out ahead. We find silver accumulation at this time to be a prudent measure to protect your wealth. Like buying insurance against an anticipated market turn. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie --- 626th Edition --- Monte-Carlo --- 13 November 2021 (published each Saturday) --- www.deMeadville.com  Let's start with October's Consumer Price Index (CPI) as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: its excitedly-disseminated reading was +0.9% (which annualized is a whopping +10.8%). "Oh, 'tis the worst in 30 years!", they say. "Oh, 'tis the worst in 40 years!", some say. We say: "C'est très exagéré." Why? Because Labor has established this level -- or higher -- three times prior during the 24 years of our maintaining the Economic Barometer: for September 2005 'twas +1.2%; for June 2008 'twas +1.1%; and recently for this past June 'twas (as is now) a like +0.9%. Here's that history: Such exaggerative reporting of this October's +0.9% CPI growth arguably does have merit, for 'tis a very concerning rate of inflation. However as Grandpa Hugh would encourage today's news desks : "Get it first, but FIRST, get it RIGHT!" as opposed to the current-day media mantra of "Fake it FIRST, but fake it as FACT!" 'Course there are other sources that find far greater inflation; however in sticking with Labor's "official" measure, glaringly missing from the subsequent reportage is that -- following those three prior inflationary pops -- came cooling over at least the few ensuing months. 'Tis per the rightmost column of "next" three-month CPI average growth in the below table: Again, ours is not to belittle the seriousness of October's +0.9% CPI rise; rather 'tis to simply show it in the context of historical fact. Please notify a media outlet near you. Seriousness, indeed. For of further practical import (on the assumption that neither do you eat, nor use petroleum-based products), October's Core-CPI growth of +0.6% has already been realized four times just in the prior 15 months. Critical concern there, and justifiably so given the price of Oil has risen from 39.82 at mid-year 2020 to 83.22 at October 2021's settle (+109%). For from the "That's Scary Dept." the cumulative rise in the full CPI across that same 16-month-to-date stint is only +7.3% ... solely by that metric, folks have been gettin' off easy despite higher petrol prices! Fortunately, Gold and Silver may be FINALLY gettin' off their respective butts via their inflation mitigative role. Which obviously points to their having so much farther up to go. Per our opening Gold Scoreboard, price settled out the week yesterday (Friday) at 1868, its second-best single-week performance thus far this year on both a points (+47.7) and percentage (+2.6%) basis. Thus comparatively, 'tis a fine leap forward for Gold. However as you ad nausea already know, even in accounting for its supply increase, Gold by StateSide M2 currency debasement "ought" today be 3986. As well is the ever-annoying fact of Gold first hitting the present 1868 level a decade ago on 19 August 2011 when the money supply was just 44% of what 'tis today, ($9.457 trillion vs. $21.343 trillion). "Got Gold?" And as for Sweet Sister Silver, 'twas her third best weekly performance year-to-date, albeit settling yesterday at 25.41 is a price first achieved 11 years ago on 04 November 2010. "Got Silver?" (Oh and from the "Gold Plays No Currency Favourites Dept." the Dollar recorded its fifth best up week of the year. "Got Bucks?" We'd rather Swiss Francs). Moreover, from our always revered "The Trend is Your Friend Dept." as we saw a week ago, Gold's weekly parabolic trend -- after an intolerably lengthy stint as Short with little net price decline -- did flip to Long. And as is the rule rather than the exception, price this past week continued higher. Which begs your question: "How much does price rise when this happens, mmb?" Bang on cue there, Squire. And the answer is: across the 43 prior Long weekly parabolic trends since 2001, the median increase in the price of Gold is +8.3%. Thus by that number, from Gold's trend flip price back at 1820, an +8.3% increase this time 'round would bring us to 1971. Modest perhaps by valuation expectations, but a start. Too, some of you may recall this sentence from our 02 October missive wherein we nixed our year's forecast high of 2401: "...The more likely scenario shall well be Gold just sloshing around into year-end, trading during Q4 between 1668-1849..." Fab to already be wrong there! For here are the weekly bars and parabolic trends from this time a year ago-to-date: Now in the midst of all this inflation trepidation came Dow Jones Newswires this past week with "The Economic Rebound From Covid-19 Was Easy. Now Comes the Hard Part." Makes sense given everything having been shutdown last year. But: how bona fide actually is "Rebound"? Let's look at corporate earnings, (now yer not gonna get this anywhere else, so pay attention): with but a week to run in Q3 Earnings Season, most of the S&P 500 constituents that report within this calendar timeframe have so done, and with fairly admirable results: 80% bettered their bottom lines, (or as we said a week ago "better have bettered" given the economic shutdown of last year). Yet here's the dirty little secret: many mid-tier and smaller companies have also reported, by our count 1,368 of 'em. And of that bunch, we found just 56% of them did better. That is a Big Red Flag given mid-to-small businesses drive the American economy. We doubt your money manager knows that number. In addition to the past week's inflation reports, lost in the shuffle were the Econ Baro metrics showing September's Wholesale Inventories as backing up, whilst November's University of Michigan Sentiment Survey fell to a 10-year low, the 66.8 level not seen since November 2011. 'Course the S&P loving bad news, its Index roared upward to finish the week at 4683, a mere 36 points below its all-time high. Together with the Baro, here's the year-over year picture: Now to some impressive precious metals' technicals via our two-panel graphic of Gold's daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and those for Silver on the right. "Impressive" as when the falling baby blue dots of trend consistency reverse course back up without having dropped to mid-chart, the buyers are clearly in charge: As for the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold (below left) and Silver (below right), life is good at the top: Good as well is Gold's buoyant positioning within its stack: The Gold StackGold's Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening "Scoreboard"): 3986Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High: 2089 (07 August 2020)Gold’s All-Time Closing High: 2075 (06 August 2020)2021's High: 1963 (06 January)The Gateway to 2000: 1900+10-Session directional range: up to 1871 (from 1759) = +112 points or +6.4%Trading Resistance: none per the ProfileGold Currently: 1868, (expected daily trading range ["EDTR"]: 25 points)Trading Support: Profile notables are 1864 / 1827 / 1793The 300-Day Moving Average: 1822 and falling10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet: 1816The Final Frontier: 1800-1900The Northern Front: 1800-1750On Maneuvers: 1750-1579The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Short: 16862021's Low: 1673 (08 March) The Floor: 1579-1466Le Sous-sol: Sub-1466The Support Shelf: 1454-1434Base Camp: 1377The 1360s Double-Top: 1369 in Apr '18 preceded by 1362 in Sep '17Neverland: The Whiny 1290sThe Box: 1280-1240 Next week brings 14 metrics into the Econ Baro; consensus expectations look for it to turn higher. To be sure, turning higher have been Gold and Silver as inflation their prices stir; and yet their levels now 10 years on are the same as they were; thus their doubling from here can well be a blur! Cheers! ...m... www.deMeadville.com www.TheGoldUpdate.com

The S&P500 ChartStorm is a selection of 10 charts which I hand pick from around the web and post on Twitter. The purpose of this post is to add extra color and commentary around the charts. The charts focus on the S&P500 (US equities); and the various forces and factors that influence the outlook - with the aim of bringing insight and perspective. Hope you enjoy! p.s. if you haven’t already, subscribe (free) to receive the ChartStorm direct to your inbox, so you don’t miss out on any charts (you never know which one could change the whole perspective!) Subscribe Now 1. Vacciversary: Can you believe, an entire year has passed since the Pfizer vaccine announcement. Markets had a strong immediate reaction, and since then have chalked up some 34% in gains. Of course a bunch of other factors are also at play, and we also had delta along the way, but you have to think at some level if there were no vaccine that the ride in markets might have been a little rougher. Source: @LarryAdamRJ 2. Investor Movement Index: The IMX moved down slightly in October - this continues the pattern of movement downwards from the peak in optimism of a few months ago. This is typically not a healthy sign for sentiment indicators i.e. reaching an extreme and then leveling off. Source: TD Ameritrade 3. Investment Manager Index: On the other hand, the Markit IMI rebounded further in November with risk appetite surging to multi-month highs and expected returns reaching a new (albeit short history - newish survey) high. Source: @IHSMarkitPMI 4. Euphoriameter: Even my own Euphoriameter composite sentiment indicator has ticked higher so far in November as valuations and bullish surveyed sentiment remain high and volatility lulls back towards complacency. Source: @topdowncharts 5. Investor Sentiment vs Consumer Sentiment: But not all sentiment indicators are at the highs: consumer sentiment has been decidedly less optimistic. I mentioned in a recent video that the UoM consumer sentiment indicator was perhaps overstating the extent of the decline, but the other 2 consumer confidence indicators I track for the USA have also started to drop off recently. This has left quite the divergence between consumer sentiment and investor sentiment. A large part of this is probably down to the inflationary shock that is currently facing the global economy due to pandemic disruption to the global supply chain *and* unprecedented monetary + fiscal stimulus (remember: supply shortages/backlogs and the associated inflation surge don’t exist if there is no demand —> demand has been boosted by stimulus —> and stimulus helps stocks ——> gap explained). Source: @takis2910 6. Real Earnings Yield: Another effect of the surge in inflation has been a plunge in the real earnings yield: again this can be squared up by noting that stimulus has been a key driver of the inflation shock and a key driver of the surge in asset prices —> surging asset prices (stock prices) leads to a lower nominal earnings yield (again: gap explained). So is this a problem? Perhaps, but one way or the other it will probably be transitory (if you can read between the lines a little there!!). Source: @LizAnnSonders 7. Valuations: Valuations rising = risks rising... but then again it's a bull market, so POLR is higher (for now). n.b. “POLR” = path of least resistance: basic notion that in markets and life when a force is set in motion an object will not change its motion/trajectory unless another force acts on it... That means a bull market will carry on until something changes e.g. a crisis, monetary policy tightening, recession, regulations/politics, (or a combination of all of those!). Source: @mark_ungewitter 8. Household Financial Asset Allocations: We all know by now that equity allocations by households is at/near record highs. But one surprise: cash holdings have jumped and are apparently on par with debt (bonds etc) ...even as cash rates suck (and are even suckier when you consider the real interest rate). Probably an element of booking gains, stimulus payments, and precautionary savings. Recall though: the job of cash is preservation of capital (and optionality) vs generating returns, as such. Source: @MikeZaccardi 9. S&P500 Constituents Return Distribution: I thought this was interesting - especially the tails of the distribution - a lot of heavy lifting being done at the tails. But also that ”s” — tails (i.e. big dispersion between left and right tails). Source: @spglobal via @bernardiniv68 10. The Five Biggest Stocks: The bigness of the biggest stocks in the index is biggening more bigly. Serious though: the market is increasingly lop-sided, this means diversification may be diminishing as systematic risk will be increasingly driven by specific risk. Source: @biancoresearch Thanks for following, I appreciate your interest! !! BONUS CHART: Leveraged ETF trading indicator >> Click through to the ChartStorm Substack to see the bonus chart section https://chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-14-november Follow us on: Substack https://topdowncharts.substack.com/ LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/company/topdown-charts Twitter http://www.twitter.com/topdowncharts

The S&P 500 index went sideways on Thursday following a decline from its last week’s high. Is the downward correction over? For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch   The S&P 500 index gained 0.06% on Thursday, as it fluctuated along the 4,650 level. On Wednesday it fell to the local low of 4,630.86 and it was almost 88 points or 1.86% below the last week’s Friday’s record high of 4,718.50. The recent rally was not broad-based and it was driven by a handful of tech stocks like MSFT, NVDA, TSLA. The market seemed overbought in the short-term and traded within a topping pattern. Today the index may extend a short-term consolidation. The nearest important support level remains at 4,630-4,650 and the next support level is at 4,600. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,700-4,720. The S&P 500 broke below its steep short-term upward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq’s Downward Correction Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index broke above the 16,000 level last week and on Friday it was trading at the new record high. The market accelerated higher above its short-term upward trend line. But since then it has been retracing the rally. The resistance level remains at 16,400, and the short-term support level is at 16,000, among others, as we can see on the daily chart: Apple Remains Relatively Weak, Microsoft Breaks Below the Trend Line Let’s take a look at the two biggest stocks in the S&P 500 index, AAPL and MSFT. Apple came back below the $150 price level. It is still well below the early September record high. Microsoft stock was reaching new record highs recently but on Wednesday it broke below its upward trend line. So the megacaps tech stocks turned lower, as we can see on their daily charts: Conclusion The S&P 500 index was little changed on Thursday and today it is expected to retrace some of its recent declines. So is the downward correction over? For now, there has been no confirmed short-term upward reversal and we may see some more consolidation below the 4,700 mark. The market may go sideways today, as investors keep taking short-term profits off the table following the recent economic and quarterly corporate earnings releases. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 retraced some of its record-breaking rally in the last few trading sessions – for now it looks like a downward correction. Still no positions are justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak, Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Infatuated with gold? Many people are, but love affairs with commodities (or stocks) are dangerous. They’ll steal your heart, then dump you.Our critics often forget that we’re focusing on the medium-term outlook in precious metals, not intraday price moves. They’ll say “Look, gold moved up today. You were wrong Radomski.” That’s nice, but where will it be one or two months from now?While gold, silver, and mining stocks’ optimism resurfaced with a vengeance last week, the trio have broken plenty of hearts since peaking in August 2020. Thus, will the current rallies end in marriage or be another mirage?To begin, while the HUI Index/gold ratio invalidated the breakdown below its rising support line, a similar development occurred in 2013 and the downtrend still resumed.On top of that, I marked (with the shaded red boxes below) just how similar the current price action is to 2013. And back then, after a sharp decline was followed by a small corrective upswing before the plunge, the ratio’s current behavior mirrors its historical counterpart. Furthermore, the end of the corrective upswing in 2013 occurred right before the gold price sunk to its previous lows (marked with red vertical dashed lines in the middle of the chart below). Thus, the ratio is already sending ominous warnings about the PMs’ future path.Even more revealing, the ratio is dangerously close to its 200-day moving average. And when a similar development occurred in 2013 – with the ratio rising slightly above its 200-day moving average (marked with the red vertical dashed line below) – a sharp reversal occurred, mining stocks materially underperformed, and the ratio plunged.Please see below:Likewise, while the GDX ETF rallied again last week, I warned previously that a corrective upswing to $35 was a possibility (the senior miners reached this level intraday on Nov. 12). However, with the GDX ETF’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) signaling overbought conditions, the air should come out of the balloon sooner rather than later.Please see below:To explain, the GDX ETF rallied on huge volume on Nov. 11 and there were only 4 cases in the recent past when we saw something like that after a visible short-term rally.In EACH of those 4 cases, GDX was after a sharp daily rally.In EACH of those 4 cases, GDX-based RSI indicator (upper part of the chart above) was trading close to 70.The rallies that immediately preceded these 4 cases:The July 27, 2020 session was immediately preceded by a 29-trading-day rally that took the GDX about 42% higher. It was 7 trading days before the final top (about 24% of time).The November 5, 2020 session was immediately preceded by a 5- trading -day rally that took the GDX about 14%-15% higher (the high-volume day / the top). It was 1 trading day before the final top (20% of time).The January 4, 2021 session was immediately preceded by a 26-trading-day rally that took the GDX about 17%-18% higher (the high-volume day / the top). It was 1 trading day before the final top (about 4% of time).The May 17, 2021 session was immediately preceded by a 52-trading-day rally that took the GDX about 30% higher. It was 7 trading days before the final top (about 13% of time).So, as you can see, these sessions have even more in common than it seemed at first sight. The sessions formed soon before the final tops (4% - 24% of time of the preceding rally before the final top), but the prices didn’t move much higher compared to how much they had already rallied before the high-volume sessions.Consequently, since the history tends to rhyme, we can expect the GDX ETF to move a bit higher here, but not significantly so, and we can expect this extra move higher to take between an additional 0 and 7 trading days (based on the Nov. 12 session, so as of Nov. 15 it’s between 0 and 6 trading days).Why 0 – 6 trading days (as of today – Nov. 15)? Because with the 4% timeline now in the rearview, the latter represents the updated 24% timeline based on the preceding rally (that took 30 trading days).Since it’s unlikely to take the mining stocks much higher, and the reversal could take place as soon as today (also in gold and silver price), I don’t think that making adjustments to the current short positions in the mining stocks is justified from the risk to reward point of view.Is there a meaningful resistance level that would be likely to trigger a decline in mining stocks? Yes! The GDX ETF is just below its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level based on the August 2020 – September 2021 decline. The resistance is slightly above $35, so that’s when the final top could form.As for the GDXJ ETF, the gold junior miners have already hit their 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (potential resistance) and the top may be upon us. Moreover, when the GDXJ ETF’s RSI increased above (or near) 70 in mid-2020 and in mid-2021, sharp drawdowns followed.As a result, those historical readings provided us with great shorting opportunities.In conclusion, investors have fallen in love with gold, silver, and mining stocks once again. However, when it comes time for matrimony, the precious metals often leave investors at the altar. As a result, while we remain bullish on gold, silver, and mining stocks’ long-term prospects, timing is important. And while the recent upswings may seem like the beginning of a new bull market, several reliable indicators beg to differ. Thus, caution is warranted, and new lows will likely materialize over the medium term.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

S&P 500 indeed rose but bond markets couldn‘t keep the encouraging opening gains. Can stocks still continue rallying? They look to be setting up for one more downleg of maximum the immediately predecing magnitude, which means not a huge setback. The medium-term path of least resistance remains up – the Fed is still printing a huge amount of money on a monthly basis, and it remains questionable how far in tapering plans execution they would actually get – I see the risks to the real economy coupled with persistently high inflation as rising since the 2Q 2022 (if not since Mar already, but most pronounced in 2H 2022).Stocks are still set for a good Dec and beyond performance – just look at VIX calming down again. It‘s that the debt ceiling drama resolution would allow the Treasury to start issuing fresh debt, and that would weigh heavily on the dollar. That‘s a good part of what gold and silver are sniffing out, and if you look at the great white metal‘s performance, it‘s the result of inflation coming back to the fore as the Fed itself is now admitting to high inflation rates through the mid-2022, putting blame on supply chain bottlenecks. Oh, sure. The real trouble is that inflation expectations are starting to get anchored – people are expecting these rates to be not going away any time soon.Precious metals are going to do great, and keep scoring excellent gains. Surpassing $1,950 isn‘t out of the realm of possibilities, but I prefer to be possitioned aggressively while having more conservative expectations. Not missing a dime this way. Copper is awakening too, and commodities including oil would be doing marvels. If in doubt, look at cryptos, how shallow the corrections there are.A few more words on yields – as more fresh Treasury issued debt enters the markets, look for yields to rise. Coming full circle to stocks and my Friday‘s expectations:(…) TLT though is having trouble declining further, and that means a brief upswing carrying over into stocks, is likely.TLT downswings would be less and less conducive to growth, so if you‘re still heavily in tech, I would start eyeing more value.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls are on the move, and let‘s see how far they make it before running into another (mild, again I say) setback.Credit MarketsCredit markets opening strength fizzled out, but the weakness is getting long in the tooth kind of. I view it as a short-term non-confirmation of the S&P 500 upswing only.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver are on a tear, and rightfully so – I am looking for further gains as both gold and silver miners confirm, and the macroeconomic environment is superb for PMs.Crude OilCrude oil bulls keep defending the $80 level, with $78 serving as the next stop if need be – after Friday, its test is looking as an increasingly remote possibility – the two lower knots in a series say. Anyway, black gold will overcome $85 before too long.CopperCopper ran while commodities paused – that‘s a very bullish sign, for both base and precious metals. The lower volume isn‘t necessarily a warning sign.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum are still consolidating, and the relatively tight price range keeps favoring the bulls – and they‘re peeking higher already.SummaryS&P 500 bulls are holding the short-term upper hand, but the rally may run into headwinds shortly. Still, we‘re looking at a trading range followed by fresh highs as a worst case scenario. Yes, I remain a stock market bull, not expecting a serious setback till probably the third month of 2022. Precious metals are my top pick, followed by copper – and I am definitely not writing off oil, let alone cryptos. Inflation trades are simply back!Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

XAUUSD tests trendlineGold continues on its way up as investors seek to hedge against inflationary pressures. The rally picked up steam after a break above the triple top at 1833. Price action is grinding up along a rising trendline.The bulls are pushing towards 1884, a major resistance where last June’s sell-off started. Strong selling pressure is possible in that supply zone as short-term buyers may take profit and reassess the directional bias.1855 on the trendline is the first support. A bearish breakout may trigger a correction to 1823.AUDUSD breaks above bearish channelThe Australian dollar softened after the RBA minutes reiterated that there will be no rate hike until 2024.The pair has found buying interest at the base of October’s bullish breakout (0.7280). A break above the falling channel indicates that sentiment could be turning around.0.7390 is a key resistance and its breach could prompt sellers to bail out. In turn, this would raise volatility in the process. Traders may then switch sides in anticipation of a reversal. An overbought RSI has so far limited the upside impetus.GER 40 rally gains tractionThe Dax 40 climbed after upbeat retail sales and industrial production in China lifted market sentiment.The index is seeking to consolidate its recent gains after it cleared the previous peak at 15990 which has now turned into support. Sentiment remains optimistic and 16300 would be the next step.An overbought RSI on the daily chart may temporarily put the brakes on the bullish fever. But a pullback may once again attract a ‘buying-the-dips’ crowd above 15990. A deeper correction may send the price towards 15770.

UK jobless claims (Tuesday 18:00 AEDT) and Oct CPI (Wed 18:00 AEDT) New home prices (today at 12:30 AEDT), Retail sales, industrial production, fixed-asset investment, property investment (all today 13:00 aedt) Aussie Q3 wage data (Wed 11:30 AEDT) RBA gov Lowe speaks (Tues 13:30 AEDT) US retail sales (Wed 00:30 AEDT), Fed speeches all week with the highlight vice-chair Clarida (Sat 04:15 AEDT) The inflation debate is still the hottest ticket in town – it is promoting higher volatility (vol) in rates markets and bonds, with a small pick-up seen in FX volatility (vol). Equity markets are still, however, calm, with the VIX at 16.3% with falling demand to hedge potential drawdown. This divergence in implied vol across asset class remains a key talking point, but there is no doubt that the boat is not yet tipping with correlations among stocks almost at zero, and cyclical sectors (of the S&P500) still holding up well vs defensives. If the US high yield credit spread accelerated above 273bp above the US 10yr Treasury (currently 267bp), then again, I think equities would be a better sell.  Now this dynamic may change, especially if the debt ceiling comes into play in mid-Dec…but what are the signs to look for over a medium-term?  A higher vol regime will make conditions far more prosperous for equity short-sellers and change the dynamics in FX markets, with renewed downside demand for high beta FX (AUD, NZD, CAD, and MXN). The USD will turn from one being driven by pro-cyclical forces – i.e. relative economics and rate settings - to one sought for safe-haven demand, with the JPY also benefiting.  (Implied volatility benchmarks across asset class) Firstly, I would start with the rates markets – we can see a bit over 2 hikes priced into US fed funds future by the end-2022, with rates ‘lift off’ starting in July. I think if we priced in over 3 hikes in 2022 it could become more problematic for risk assets. Looking out the Eurodollar rates curve, we see a reasonably aggressive pace of hikes in 2022 and 2023, but then the pace markedly declines with barely anything priced for 2024 and 2025. In essence, the market sees hikes as front-loaded suggesting the Fed are in fact not dramatically behind the curve – a factor that is one of the core debates in macro.  We see an 89bp differential between the Eurodollar Dec 2025 and Dec 2022 futures contracts – if this moves back to say 140bp then this could be the market feeling that inflation is going to be a far greater problem and rate hikes are being more aggressively priced throughout the next four years. (Orange – US 5y5y forward rate, white – Fed’s long-term dot plot projection) Also, if the US 5y5y forward rate (the markets view on the ‘terminal’ fed funds rate – now 1.94%) pushed above 2.50% (the Fed’s long-term dot plot projection), again, I think this would be a trigger for far higher volatility and risk aversion.  A move to 2.50% won't play out overnight, if at all, and we’ll need to see real evidence that the US labour force participation rate is not going above 62%, while unit labour costs stay elevated and supply chains heal at a glacial pace. However, if the forward rate was eyeing 2.5% I think this could be a factor many strategists will point to for the VIX to sustain a move above 20%. The gold market is perhaps one of the more classic signs of inflationary concerns – this is a play on US ‘real’ (adjusted for inflation expectations) rates though, where the combination of a better economy in Q4, record negative US real rates and rising inflation is one the gold bulls will seek out precious metals. The Fed may need to promote a move higher in real rates, but the knock-on effect is they risk the stock market finding sellers – notably in growth stocks. A downside break of -2% in 5yr US real Treasury’s could be the trigger for gold to push into and above $1900.  Many debate the linkage between inflation expectations and the real economy. I’m not sure it matters when people are feeling the effects for themselves, and much has been made of the recent NFIB small business survey and Friday’s University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, which hit the lowest levels since August 2011.  Clearly inflation is not popular and is increasingly the key political issue – I’d argue if real rates break to new lows this could accelerate inflation hedges, while a move through 2.7% in US 5y5y inflation swaps (currently 2.55%) would also play into the idea that perhaps the Fed, at the very least, need to radically reduce the pace of QE in the December FOMC meeting.  Clearly, the US Nov CPI (released 11 Dec) is going to be a big event for markets to digest and the signs are price pressures will continue to build from the current 6.2% YoY pace.  Crude and gasoline also play a key role in shaping sentiment – Senate Majority Leader Schumer has called on President Biden to release an element of the US’s Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR). This is a factor that has been talked up since OPEC rejected the US’s calls to increase output by more than 400k barrels. However, the introduction of Schumer into the mix just adds fuel to the fire and this may weigh on crude. So, a few indictors I am watching that could spur the market into a belief the Fed are genuinely behind the curve – I’d argue the market isn’t there yet, but if the factors I mention don’t show evidence of dissipating then we could see forward rates move to levels that could highlight the Fed need to act far more intently – that is where risk dynamics could markedly change.

  Stocks retraced some of their recent declines on Friday and the S&P 500 index is expected to open higher this morning. So is the downward correction over? The S&P 500 index gained 0.72% on Friday, Nov. 12, as investor sentiment turned bullish and the market bounced from the support level of around 4,650. On Wednesday it fell to the local low of 4,630.86 and it was almost 88 points or 1.86% below the previous week’s Friday’s record high of 4,718.50. The recent rally was not broad-based and it was driven by a handful of tech stocks like MSFT, NVDA, TSLA. The market seemed overbought in the short-term and traded within a topping pattern. But today the index may get back to the 4,700 level. The nearest important support level remains at 4,630-4,650 and the next support level is at 4,600. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,700-4,720. The S&P 500 broke below its steep short-term upward trend line recently, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq Bounced From the 16,000 Level Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. In the previous week the technology index broke above the 16,000 level and it was trading at the new record high. The market accelerated higher above its short-term upward trend line. But since then it has been retracing the rally. On Friday the index retraced some of the recent declines, however it remained below its short-term local lows, as we can see on the daily chart: Apple Is Still Close to $150, Microsoft Remains Relatively Strong Let’s take a look at the two biggest stocks in the S&P 500 index, AAPL and MSFT. Apple continues to fluctuate along the $150 price level. It is still well below the early September record high. Microsoft stock was reaching new record highs recently but last week it broke below its upward trend line. So those two big cap tech stocks remain mixed, as we can see on their daily charts: Conclusion The S&P 500 index retraced some of its recent declines on Friday and today it is expected to open 0.4% higher. So it looks like a downward correction is over and the market may reach new highs or at least extend a short-term consolidation along the 4,700 level. Investors will wait for tomorrow’s Retail Sales number release and some Fed-talk later in the week. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 is expected to extend its Friday’s advance this morning and it may get to the 4,700 level. Still no positions are justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

https://investmacro.com/2021/11/the-top-5-companies-added-to-our-stock-market-watchlist-this-quarter/ Body: By InvestMacro The fourth quarter of 2021 is approximately halfway over and we wanted to highlight some of the top companies that have been analyzed by our QuantStock system so far. The QuantStock system is an algorithm that examines each company’s fundamental metrics, earnings trends and overall strength trends to pinpoint quality companies. We use it as a stock market ideas generator and to update our stock watchlist every quarter. However, be aware the QuantStock system does not take into consideration the stock price so one must compare each idea with their current stock prices. Many studies are consistently showing overvalued markets and that has to be taken into consideration with any stock market idea. As with all investment ideas, past performance does not guarantee future results. Here we go with 5 of our Top Stocks halfway through Quarter 4 of 2021: Gilead Sciences Inc. Health Care, Large Cap, 4.29% Dividend, Our Grade = A Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD) is first up and is a company engaged in developing innovative therapies for life-threatening diseases. Its medicine portfolio includes treatment for conditions ranging from HIV and hepatitis to coronavirus and cardiovascular disorders. If we talk about its financial performance, the bio-pharmaceutical company recently crushed expectations for the third quarter. It posted adjusted earnings of $2.65 per share on revenue of $7.42 billion for the quarter ended September 30. The results easily beat the consensus forecast of $1.76 per share for earnings and $6.29 billion for revenue. If we look at its key financial metrics, Gilead stock is currently trading around $67.48 against its 52-week range of $56.56 – $73.34. Moreover, its P/E value is 11.55, while the company’s total market value is just over $84 billion.   US Steel Materials, Small Cap, 0.77% Dividend, Our Grade = A- United States Steel Corporation (NYSE: X), founded in 1901, is one of the leading steel producers in the U.S. The strong demand for steel helped the company post better-than-expected financial results for the third quarter. United States Steel reported adjusted earnings of $5.36 per share for the three months ended September 30, beating expectations of $4.85 per share. Quarterly revenue of $5.96 billion also surpassed the consensus forecast of $5.79 billion. If we look at the recent price movement, United States Steel stock has gained more than 50 percent value so far in 2021. The 52-week range of the stock is $10.72 – $30.57, while the total market value of the company is approx. $7 billion.   Seagate Technology Information Technology, Medium Cap, 3.18% Dividend, Our Grade = A- Seagate Technology Holdings plc (NASDAQ: STX) is one of the world’s biggest hard disk drives (HDDs) makers. It still generates a large portion of its revenue by selling traditional HDDs. The company last month announced better-than-expected financial results for its fiscal first quarter, driven by solid demand from cloud data center clients. Seagate reported adjusted earnings of $2.35 per share on revenue of $3.12 billion for the three months ended October 1, while analysts were looking for earnings of $2.21 per share on revenue of $3.11 billion. The impressive financial performance drove Seagate stock higher in recent weeks. Seagate stock is now up nearly 80 percent on a year-to-date basis.   Synchrony Financial Financials, Medium Cap, 1.68% Dividend, Our Grade = A- Synchrony Financial (NYSE: SYF) has vast experience in the financial sector. It is one of the biggest credit card issuers in the U.S., working with hundreds of retailers to support their credit card plans. The company last month announced a solid profit for the third quarter. Synchrony reported earnings of $2 per share, significantly higher than 52 cents per share in the comparable period of 2020 and better than the consensus forecast of $1.52 per share. If we see its recent price trend, Synchrony has grown its value at a decent pace so far in 2021. The company’s share price has increased about 47 percent on a year-to-date basis. The 52-week range of the stock is $29.32 – $52.49, while its P/E ratio stands at 7.10.   Lazard Ltd Financials, Small Cap, 3.98% Dividend, Our Grade = A- Lazard Ltd (NYSE: LAZ) specializes in financial advisory and asset management services. It mainly advises clients on mergers and acquisitions (M&A), capital structure, and restructuring plans. It has advised on some of the biggest and most complicated M&A deals of the last century. If we look at its financial performance, Lazard posted mixed results for the third quarter. Its earnings of 98 cents per share exceeded the expectations of 95 cents per share. However, the quarterly revenue of $702 million missed analysts’ average estimate of $715 million. Lazard stock traded mostly lower following the results. Nevertheless, the company’s share price is still up nearly 15 percent on a year-to-date basis. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- By InvestMacro – Be sure to join our stock market newsletter to get our updates and to see more top companies. All information, stock ideas and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Gold rallied thanks to the changed narrative on inflation, and Biden’s infrastructure plan can only add to the inflationary pressure. Huge price moves ahead? I have a short quiz for you! What the government should do to decrease inflation that reached the highest level in 30 years? A) Decrease its expenditure to make room for the Fed to hike the federal funds rate. B) Press the US central bank to tighten its monetary policy. C) Deregulate the markets and lower taxes to boost the supply side of the economy. D) Introduce a huge infrastructure plan that will multiply spending on energy, raw materials, and inputs in general. Please guess which option the US government chose. Yes, the worst possible. Exam failed! At the beginning of November, Congress passed a bipartisan infrastructure bill. And President Biden signed it on Monday (November 15, 2021). To be clear, I’m not claiming that America doesn’t need any investment in infrastructure. Perhaps it needs it, and perhaps it’s a better idea than social spending on unemployment benefits that discourage work. I don’t want to argue about the adequacy of large government infrastructure projects, although government spending generally fails to stimulate genuine economic growth and governments rarely outperform the private sector in effectiveness. My point is that $1.2 trillion infrastructure spending is coming at the worst possible moment. The US economy is facing supply shortages and high inflation caused by surging demand, which choked the ports and factories. In short, too much money is chasing too few goods, and policymakers decided to add additional money into the already blocked supply chains! I have no words of admiration for the intellectual abilities of the members of Congress and the White House! Indeed, the spending plan does not have to be inflationary if financed purely by taxes and borrowing. However, the Fed will likely monetize at least part of the newly issued federal debt, and you know, to build or repair infrastructure, workers are needed, and steel, and concrete, and energy. The infrastructure spending, thus, will add pressure to the ongoing energy crisis and high producer price inflation, not to mention the shortage of workers. Implications for Gold What does the passing of the infrastructure bill imply for the gold market? Well, it should be supportive of the yellow metal. First, it will increase the fiscal deficits by additional billions of dollars (the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill will enlarge the deficits by $256 billion). Second, government spending will add to the inflationary pressure, which gold should also welcome. After all, gold recalled last week that it is a hedge against high and accelerating inflation. As the chart below shows, gold not only jumped above the key level of $1,800, but it even managed to cross $1,850 on renewed inflation worries. The infrastructure bill was probably discounted by the traders, so its impact on the precious metals market should be limited. However, generally, all news that could intensify inflationary fears should be supportive of the yellow metal. You see, the narrative has changed. So far, the thinking was that higher inflation implies faster tapering and interest rates hikes and, thus, lower gold prices. This is why gold was waiting on the sidelines for the past several months despite high inflation. Investors also believed that inflation would be transitory. However, the recent CPI report forced the markets to embrace the fact that inflation could be more persistent. What’s more, tapering of quantitative easing started, which erased some downward pressure on gold. Moreover, despite the slowdown in the pace of asset purchases, the Fed will maintain its accommodative stance and stay behind the curve. So, at the moment, the reasoning is that high inflation implies elevated fears, which is good for gold. I have always believed that gold’s more bullish reaction to accelerating inflation was a matter of time. It’s possible that this time has just come. Having said that, investors should remember that market narratives can change quickly. At some point, the Fed will probably step in and send some hawkish signals, which could calm investors and pull some of them out of the gold market. My second concern is that gold could have reacted not to accelerating inflation, but rather to the plunge in the real interest rates. As the chart below shows, the yields on 10-year TIPS have dropped to -1.17, a level very close to the August bottom. When something reaches the bottom, it should rebound later. And if real interest rates start to rally, then gold could struggle again. However, I’ll stop complaining now and allow the bulls to celebrate the long-awaited breakout. It’s an interesting development compared to the last months, that’s for sure! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

S&P 500 is starting to run into a setback even if VIX doesn‘t reveal that fully. Credit markets going from weakness to weakness spells more short-term woes for stocks – a shallow downswing that feels (and is) a trading range before the surge to new ATHs continues, is likely to materialize in the second half of Nov. We may be in its opening stages – as written yesterday: (…) Can stocks still continue rallying? They look to be setting up for one more downleg of the immediately predecing magnitude, which means not a huge setback. The medium-term path of least resistance remains up – the Fed is still printing a huge amount of money on a monthly basis, and it remains questionable how far in tapering plans execution they would actually get – I see the risks to the real economy coupled with persistently high inflation as rising since the 2Q 2022 (if not since Mar already, but most pronounced in 2H 2022). Stocks are still set for a good Dec and beyond performance. The elephant in the room is (the absence of) fresh debt issuance lifting up the dollar, making it like rising yields more. Not only that these are failing to push value higher, but the tech resilience highlights the defensive nature of S&P 500 performance. Crucially though, precious metals are seeing through the (misleading dollar strength) fog, and are sharply rising regardless. Make no mistake, with the taper reaction, we have seen what I had been expecting (or even better given that I prefer reasonably conservative stance without drumming up expectations either way) – I had been telling you that the hardest times for the metals are before taper. And the magnitude and pace of their upswing casts a verdict on the Fed‘s (likely in)ability to follow through with the taper execution, let alone initiate the rate raising cycle without being laughed off the stage as markets force these regardless of the central planners. The galloping inflation expectations are sending a very clear message: (…) if you look at the great white metal‘s performance, it‘s the result of inflation coming back to the fore as the Fed itself is now admitting to high inflation rates through the mid-2022, putting blame on supply chain bottlenecks. Oh, sure. The real trouble is that inflation expectations are starting to get anchored – people are expecting these rates to be not going away any time soon. Precious metals are going to do great… Copper is awakening too, and commodities including oil would be doing marvels. TLT downswings would be less and less conducive to growth, so if you‘re still heavily in tech, I would start eyeing more value. Let me add the Russell 2000 and emerging markets to the well performing medium-term mix. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bulls didn‘t make it too far before running into another (mild, again I say) setback – so far, a sideways one. Credit Markets Credit markets renewed their march lower, and unless they turn, the S&P 500 upswings would remain on shaky ground (if and when they materialize). Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver remain on a tear, and even for the breather to unfold, it takes quite an effort. The bears clearly can‘t hope for a trend change. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls keep defending the $80 level, with $78 serving as the next stop if need be – these consecutive lower knots keep favoring the bulls, just when the right catalyst arrives. Whether that takes one or two days or more, is irrelevant – it will happen. Copper Copper ran into an unexpected setback, which however doesn‘t change the outlook thanks to its relatively low volume. I‘m still looking for much higher red metal‘s prices. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are seeing an emerging crack in the dam that doesn‘t tie too well to developments elsewhere. The bulls should step in, otherwise this yellow flag risks turning into a red one. Summary S&P 500 bulls are now holding only the medium-term upper hand as the rally is entering a consolidation phase. Anyway, this trading range would be followed by fresh ATHs, which would power stocks even higher in early 2022. Precious metals have quite some catching up to do, and the long post Aug 2020 consolidation is over. Copper, base metals, oil and agrifoods are likely to keep doing great as inflation expectations show that inflation truly hasn‘t been tamed in the least. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

The recent EURUSD move could be considered a classic case study for traders, across strategies, and notably for those who cut their craft on timeframes larger than 30 minutes. On one hand, the attraction to own USDs is almost too obvious and that worries me as a USD bull – we have inflation far higher than where the Fed has been forecasting only back in September and unemployment is also trending towards what the Fed considers ‘full employment’. We get the November CPI print on 11 December and that promises to be even hotter than the October print of 6.2% YoY. The Fed meet on 16 December, and in response we should get some punchy upward revisions to their forecasts on labour and inflation. Given the potential revisions on economic projections, it feels incredibly likely that the pace of QE tapering should subsequently accelerate - this sets up an earlier finish for asset purchases and ultimately opens the door to potentially start hiking from as early as May 2022. The Fed’s median projection for the fed funds rate (the dots) in 2022 is for one hike – it’s feasible to believe this lifts to two hikes next year. So, it's straightforward to take a constructive view on the USD, especially when you hear from former Fed officials Bill Dudley and Jeffery Lacker that they think the fed funds rate may need to move to 3% to control inflation. That would get the USD bulls excited, although 3% would probably be seen as a potential policy mistake by many. Year-to-date moves vs the USD Preview (Source: TradingView - Past performance is not indicative of future performance.) The market has some key event risks in its sight and are clearly running a progressively greater short EURUSD position into the Nov CPI print and FOMC meeting – and that has started now. We also have an important ECB meeting (also on the 16 December) and that too could be a volatility event – it promises to be a huge 24 hours for EURUSD and the EUR crosses! We can talk up the USD but looking across the FX universe this appears to be a EUR move, with our EUR spot basket (EURX on MT4/5) at the lowest levels since May 2020. Aside from the JPY, the EUR is the weakest G10 currency in 2021 – and is at the bottom of the pack on a 1-, 3- or 6- month basis – a true momentum play. EURUSD has been at the heart of the falls in our EUR basket and has been predictably well traded by clients. Maybe this is as simple as a central bank divergence play – with the ECB aggressively pushing back on expected rate hikes in 2022, hell-bent on the view that inflation is in fact ‘transitory’. While the Fed, on the other hand, are open-minded to hiking, if it's required, and the market certainly is adamant it will be in 2022 - and could soon be pricing 3 hikes in 2022. Trading diverging monetary policy paths is perhaps the most simplistic form of tactical trading, in essence, it's FX trading 101, and it's working and we’re all witnessing the trend lower. We’re seeing a similar theme play out in EURCAD and EURNZD, and EURCAD is especially interesting as the cross has broken its consolidation range and if we see a hot Canadian CPI print (Thursday 00:00 AEDT) then the market will expect a rate hike in January by the BoC. Diverging monetary policy expectation’s part explains the move in EURCHF, but it clearly doesn’t explain the one-way move in EURJPY from 133.50 to sub-130. As we explain here EURCHF should be on all FX traders’ radars. So the market is clearly happy to sell EURs and the order books at banks would have become quite one-sided. Trend-followers and momentum-based funds, many of them systematic, would have been all over this move lower adding to shorts as price broke level after level. And, while EURUSD implied or realised volatility hasn’t picked up markedly, the rallies from 1.2260 (in May) have been corrective in nature and short-lived Preview (Source: TradingView - Past performance is not indicative of future performance.) The question I'm asking now and noting that US non-farm payrolls, CPI and FOMC meetings are still some way off, is how to best trade the EURUSD in the near term. That's of course determined by strategy – in this case, mean reversion or momentum. To buy EURUSD as a mean reversion play – personally, I feel the counter rallies should be limited so would change to an ultra-short-term moving average (such as the 5-day EMA) over a traditional 20-day MA Leave limit orders to sell into the former downtrend at 1.1415, or take the timeframe in and see the reaction, price action and behaviour into the former trend before initiating shorts Or, just to stay short as a pure momentum trade and have a stop above 1.1464. One way moves and mature trends eventually come to an end, notably when positioning becomes too extreme – over loved consensus trades rarely end well if you’re the last one in. However, while the street is clearly short of EURs, the fundamentals justify this and if heat come out of the move, then it should offer a renewed chance to short as we head into a huge December for FX traders.  That’s how I see it as we head towards a wild December of major event risk.

We find ourselves ensued in various battles. Environmentally, economically, and from a human perspective. As much as it is questionable if coal and oil, centralized money, and wars (attacks on ourselves) hold a prosperous future, change is typically avoided. There have been moments in history where rapid change happened. Most often introduced by a charismatic human being with a compelling principle at a defining moment when a change was needed. S&P 500 Index versus BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, bitcoin an answer to crisis? S&P 500 Index versus Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 16th, 2021. The bitcoin idea was born as a response to the crash of 2008. In its principles, diametrical to fiat currencies. Bitcoin is decentralized, limited, deflationary and digital. There is no historical event where increased money printing has resolved economic turmoil. And yet, we have not come up with a better solution, or at least we have not implemented it yet. The chart above shows how shortly after the crash of 2008, the first transaction ever sent on the bitcoin blockchain was completed in January 2009.Coincidence? It took some time until the cryptocurrency’s pseudonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto found traction with his idea reflected in bitcoin’s price rise. Still, it has not just caught up but outperformed the market by a stunning margin. BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, don’t underestimate powerful ideas: Bitcoin versus gold and silver in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 16th, 2021. Covid provided like a steroid a means to illustrate many shortcomings in a magnified way. The chart above shows that bitcoin speculation was an answer to where many find a more prosperous future compared to precious metals. In addition to fundamentals and technical, the underlying idea and hope for a transitory future got traction when people were most afraid.   BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, sitting through turmoil with ease: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 16th, 2021. Dissecting markets like this in all their shades and facets is necessary for discovering underlying currents, motivation, and sustainability of trends. In bitcoins case, the found strength of application, beliefs, and principles inherent in bitcoin itself and its traders allows for sitting more easily through its volatility swings. Once the mind grasps reason, it tolerates easier, otherwise hardships to trade a volatile vehicle like bitcoin. With a battle ensured on this magnitude and for an expected long duration, one can accept deep retracements in a more tranquil fashion. The monthly chart above shows that bitcoin might face one of those quick dips that hodlers accept, knowing that the battle isn’t over yet. Bitcoin, a battle for freedom: Mills are grinding slowly. Change typically takes time, and those holding the reign over financial power will certainly not surrender such summoned energies lightly. While this world certainly needs a more adaptive behavior of humanity both for its wellbeing and the planet itself, it is unlikely that a shift, if at all, will be swift. This means that bitcoin is a continued struggle to establish itself. And this will result in continued high volatility for the years to come. As such, it will remain an excellent opportunity for the individual investor. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.

EURUSD lacks support The US dollar inched higher after October’s retail sales beat expectations. There has been a lack of interest in the single currency following its fall below the daily support at 1.1530. The divergence between the 20 and 30-hour moving averages indicates an acceleration in the sell-off. The bears are targeting the demand zone around 1.1200 from last July. The RSI’s oversold situation may prompt momentum traders to cover. Though a rebound is likely to be capped by 1.1370 and sellers would be eager to sell into strength. GBPJPY attempts to rebound The sterling recouped losses after Britain’s unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%. On the daily chart, the pair saw support near the 61.8% (152.60) Fibonacci retracement of the October rally. A bullish RSI divergence was a sign that the bearish pressure was fading. A break above 153.60 could be an attempt to turn the mood around. The initial surge may need more support after the RSI shot into the overbought area. Should the pound stay above 152.35-152.60, a rebound would lift it towards 155.20. NAS 100 tests peak The Nasdaq 100 bounces back supported by robust tech earnings. The index showed exhaustion after a four-week-long bull run. A combination of an overbought RSI and its bearish divergence made traders cautious in buying into high valuations. A break below the psychological level of 16000 has triggered a wave of profit-taking. A deeper retreat below 16020 would send the index to the previous peak at 15700 which coincides with the 30-day moving average. On the upside, A rally above 16400 would resume the uptrend.

MetaTrader & FBS Trader app are two essential tools that every trader should use. Don’t rely only on one, use the power of both as they suit different trader needs. In short, MetaTrader is for trading on a laptop/PC, while the FBS Trader app is perfect for mobile trading. Let’s look at how you can use them! MetaTrader When you want to use a personal computer or laptop for trading, you can choose MetaTrader 4 or 5. They are the two versions of one software program that traders use for opening orders and making an advanced technical analysis. MetaTrader offers different technical tools and allows using trading robots (expert advisors). Besides, you can use the FBS Forex broker app to manage your MetaTrader accounts and control finances. FBS Trader app If you want to trade with your mobile phone or just don’t have an opportunity to trade with a PC at the moment, the FBS Trader app is the best choice. Indeed, we can’t sit in front of our personal computers and monitor trades all day long. What to do? The solution is to have the FBS Trader app on your mobile phone and be able to open/close a trade in just one click wherever you are. It’s handy that all your active orders are gathered in a separate section. Besides, imagine that some economic news comes out that can impact your opened trades but you are not nearby your PC. It wouldn’t be a problem if you have the FBS Trader app on your phone. In addition, this app has a built-in economic calendar that allows traders to follow impactful news and analyze the charts without leaving the app. For example, the Bank of England left the rates unchanged during its meeting on November 4, while it was expected to raise them. As a result, the British pound weakened, and GBP/USD dropped. As you may notice in the chart below, you can add technical indicators in the FBS Trader app. In that case, Bollinger Bands could help a trader to confirm the bearish momentum as bands were moving in a narrow range and the price broke through the lower band. Finally, the FBS Trader app allows you to manage your funds freely without leaving the app. You can deposit and withdraw them easily in a few clicks. All in all, MetaTrader and the FBS Trader app are the perfect combination for trading. Enjoy using them!

GBPUSD bounces higher The pound inched higher after the UK’s inflation soared to 4.2% in October. Sentiment remains pessimistic after a botched rebound from the demand zone at 1.3420. However, an oversold RSI has attracted some buying interest. Its bullish divergence suggests a slowdown in the sell-off, prompting momentum traders to take profit and look for the next breakout. The sterling may bounce back if the bulls succeed in keeping it above 1.3380. 1.3530 would be the first hurdle. Otherwise, a bearish breakout would send the pair to 1.3200. USDCAD reaches new high The Canadian dollar fell back after the annual inflation rate matched the consensus. Following the greenback’s rally from the demand zone at 1.2300, a bullish MA cross on the daily chart suggests that the current rebound is picking up steam. As a sign of strong commitment, buyers were eager to keep price action above 1.2480 when the RSI flirted with the oversold area. A break above 1.2600 may trigger an extended rally towards the daily resistance at 1.2760. 1.2540 is fresh support in case of a pullback. USOIL falls through key support WTI crude tumbled after OPEC warned of supply surplus. The rally has stalled after the bulls struggled to lift offers at 85.00. On the daily timeframe, the RSI’s double top in the overbought area indicates an overextension. A break below 79.00 has led to profit-taking and put the long side under pressure. 81.60 is now a fresh resistance from the latest sell-off. The buy-side will need to achieve new highs before they could bring in momentum interest. Failing that, 75.00 is a key floor to keep price action afloat.

By InvestMacro The fourth quarter of 2021 is approximately halfway over and we wanted to highlight some of the top companies that have been analyzed by our QuantStock system so far. The QuantStock system is an algorithm that examines each company’s fundamental metrics, earnings trends and overall strength trends to pinpoint quality companies. We use it as a stock market ideas generator and to update our stock watchlist every quarter. However, be aware the QuantStock system does not take into consideration the stock price so one must compare each idea with their current stock prices. Many studies are consistently showing overvalued markets and that has to be taken into consideration with any stock market idea. As with all investment ideas, past performance does not guarantee future results. Here we go with 5 of our Top Stocks halfway through Quarter 4 of 2021: Gilead Sciences Inc. Health Care, Large Cap, 4.29% Dividend, Our Grade = A Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD) is first up and is a company engaged in developing innovative therapies for life-threatening diseases. Its medicine portfolio includes treatment for conditions ranging from HIV and hepatitis to coronavirus and cardiovascular disorders. If we talk about its financial performance, the bio-pharmaceutical company recently crushed expectations for the third quarter. It posted adjusted earnings of $2.65 per share on revenue of $7.42 billion for the quarter ended September 30. The results easily beat the consensus forecast of $1.76 per share for earnings and $6.29 billion for revenue. If we look at its key financial metrics, Gilead stock is currently trading around $67.48 against its 52-week range of $56.56 – $73.34. Moreover, its P/E value is 11.55, while the company’s total market value is just over $84 billion. US Steel Materials, Small Cap, 0.77% Dividend, Our Grade = A- Free Reports: Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis. United States Steel Corporation (NYSE: X), founded in 1901, is one of the leading steel producers in the U.S. The strong demand for steel helped the company post better-than-expected financial results for the third quarter. United States Steel reported adjusted earnings of $5.36 per share for the three months ended September 30, beating expectations of $4.85 per share. Quarterly revenue of $5.96 billion also surpassed the consensus forecast of $5.79 billion. If we look at the recent price movement, United States Steel stock has gained more than 50 percent value so far in 2021. The 52-week range of the stock is $10.72 – $30.57, while the total market value of the company is approx. $7 billion. Seagate Technology Information Technology, Medium Cap, 3.18% Dividend, Our Grade = A- Seagate Technology Holdings plc (NASDAQ: STX) is one of the world’s biggest hard disk drives (HDDs) makers. It still generates a large portion of its revenue by selling traditional HDDs. The company last month announced better-than-expected financial results for its fiscal first quarter, driven by solid demand from cloud data center clients. Seagate reported adjusted earnings of $2.35 per share on revenue of $3.12 billion for the three months ended October 1, while analysts were looking for earnings of $2.21 per share on revenue of $3.11 billion. The impressive financial performance drove Seagate stock higher in recent weeks. Seagate stock is now up nearly 80 percent on a year-to-date basis. Synchrony Financial Financials, Medium Cap, 1.68% Dividend, Our Grade = A- Synchrony Financial (NYSE: SYF) has vast experience in the financial sector. It is one of the biggest credit card issuers in the U.S., working with hundreds of retailers to support their credit card plans. The company last month announced a solid profit for the third quarter. Synchrony reported earnings of $2 per share, significantly higher than 52 cents per share in the comparable period of 2020 and better than the consensus forecast of $1.52 per share. If we see its recent price trend, Synchrony has grown its value at a decent pace so far in 2021. The company’s share price has increased about 47 percent on a year-to-date basis. The 52-week range of the stock is $29.32 – $52.49, while its P/E ratio stands at 7.10. Lazard Ltd Financials, Small Cap, 3.98% Dividend, Our Grade = A- Lazard Ltd (NYSE: LAZ) specializes in financial advisory and asset management services. It mainly advises clients on mergers and acquisitions (M&A), capital structure, and restructuring plans. It has advised on some of the biggest and most complicated M&A deals of the last century. If we look at its financial performance, Lazard posted mixed results for the third quarter. Its earnings of 98 cents per share exceeded the expectations of 95 cents per share. However, the quarterly revenue of $702 million missed analysts’ average estimate of $715 million. Lazard stock traded mostly lower following the results. Nevertheless, the company’s share price is still up nearly 15 percent on a year-to-date basis. By InvestMacro – Be sure to join our stock market newsletter to get our updates and to see more top companies. All information, stock ideas and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

  Inflation expectations reached a record high. Is gold preparing a counterattack to punish gold bears? In a , nobody expects the Spanish inquisition. In the current marketplace, everyone expects high inflation. As the chart below shows, the inflation expectations embedded in US Treasury yields have recently risen to the highest level since the series began in 2003. Houston, we have a problem, an unidentified object is flying to the moon! The 5-year breakeven inflation rate, which is the difference between the yields on ordinary Treasury bonds and inflation-protected Treasuries with the same maturity, soared to 2.76% on Monday. Meanwhile, the 10-year breakeven inflation rate surged to 3.17%. The numbers show the Treasury market’s measure of average CPI annual inflation rates over five and ten years, respectively. The chart is devastating for the Fed’s reputation if there’s anything left. You probably remember how the US central bank calmed investors, saying that we shouldn’t worry about inflation because inflation expectations are well-anchored. No, they don’t! Of course, the current inflation expectations oscillate around 3%, so they indicate that the bond market is anticipating a pullback in the inflation rate from its current level. Nevertheless, the average of 3% over ten or even just five years would be much above the Fed’s target of 2% and would be detrimental for savers in particular, and the US economy in general. I’ve already shown you market-based inflation expectations, which are relatively relaxed, but please take a look at the chart below, which displays the consumer expectations measured by the New York Fed’s surveys. As one can see, the median inflation expectations at the one-year horizon jumped 0.4 percentage point in October, to 5.7%. So much for the inflation expectations remaining under control!   Implications for Gold Surging inflation expectations are positive for the gold market. They should lower real interest rates and strengthen inflationary worries. This is because the destabilized inflation expectations may erode the confidence in the US dollar and boost inflation in the future. So, gold could gain as both an inflation hedge and a safe haven. And, importantly, the enlightened Fed is likely to remain well behind the curve in setting its monetary policy. This is even more probable if President Biden appoints Lael Brainard as the new Fed Chair. She is considered a dove, even more dovish than Powell, so if Brainard replaces him, investors should expect to see interest rates staying lower for longer. So, inflation expectations and actual inflation could go even higher. Hence, the dovish Fed combined with high inflation (and a slowdown in GDP growth) creates an excellent environment for gold to continue its rally. After all, the yellow metal has broken out after several months of consolidation (as the chart below shows), so the near future seems to be brighter. There are, of course, some threats for gold, as risks are always present. If the US dollar continues to strengthen and the real interests rebound, gold may struggle. But, after the recent change, the sentiment seems to remain positive. Anyway, I would like to return to the market-based inflation expectations and the famous Monty Python sketch. With an inflation rate of 3%, which is the number indicated by the bond market, the capital will halve in value in just 24 years! So, maybe it would be a too-far-reaching analogy, but Monty Python inquisitors wanted to use a rack to torture heretics by slowly increasing the strain on their limbs and causing excruciating physical pain (luckily, they were not the most effective inquisitors!). Meanwhile, inflation hits savers by slowly decreasing the purchasing power of money and causing significant financial pain. With the inflation rate at about 6%, hedging against inflation is a no-brainer. It’s a matter of financial self-defense! You don’t have to use gold for this purpose – but you definitely can. After several disappointing months, and the lack of gold’s reaction to inflation, something changed, and gold has managed to break out above $1,800. We will see how it goes on. I will feel more confident about the strength of the recent rally when gold rises above $1,900. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

S&P 500 took a little breather, and sideways trading with a bullish slant goes on unchecked. Credit markets have partially turned, and I‘m looking for some risk appetite returning to HYG and VTV. Any modest improvement in market breadth would thus underpin stocks, and not even my narrow overnight downswing target of yesterday may be triggered. The banking sector is internally strong and resilient, which makes the bulls the more favored party than if judged by looking at the index price action only. Consumer discretionaries outperformance of staples confirms that too. When it comes to gold and silver: (…) Faced with the dog and pony debt ceiling show, precious metals dips are being bought – and relatively swiftly. What I‘m still looking for to kick in to a greater degree than resilience to selling attempts, is the commodities upswing that would help base metals and energy higher. These bull runs are far from over – it ain‘t frothy at the moment as the comparison of several oil stocks reveals. Precious metals dip has been swiftly reversed, and it‘s just oil and copper that can cause short-term wrinkles. Both downswings look as seriously overdone, and more of a reaction to resilient dollar than anything else. In this light, gold and silver surge is presaging renewed commodities run, which is waiting for the greenback to roll over (first). And that looks tied to fresh debt issuance and debt ceiling resolution – Dec is almost knocking on the door while inflation expectations are about to remain very elevated. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bulls continue holding the upper hand, and yesterday‘s rising volume isn‘t a problem in the least. Dips remain to be bought, and it‘s all a question of entry point and holding period. Credit Markets Credit markets stabilization is approaching, and yields don‘t look to be holding S&P 500, Russell 2000 or emerging markets down for too long. Especially the EEM performance highlights upcoming dollar woes. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver decline was promptly reversed, and the lower volume isn‘t an immediate problem – it merely warns of a little more, mostly sideways consolidation before another push higher. PMs bull run is on! Crude Oil Crude oil bulls could very well be capitulating here – yesterday‘s downswing was exaggerated any way examined. Better days in oil are closer than generally appreciated. Copper The copper setback got likewise extended, and the underperformance of both CRB Index and other base metals is a warning sign. One that I‘m not taking as seriously – the red metal is likely to reverse higher, and start performing along the lines of other commodities. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum bears may be slowing down here, but I wouldn‘t be surprised if the selling wasn‘t yet over. We‘re pausing at the moment, and in no way topping out. Summary S&P 500 bulls keep banishing the shallow correction risks, leveling the very short-term playing field. The credit markets non-confirmation is probably in its latter stages, and stock market internals favor the slow grind higher to continue. Precious metals remain my top pick over the coming weeks, and these would be followed by commodities once the dollar truly stalls. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Summary:  The economist consensus anticipates inflation will start falling from early next year. We disagree. We consider the market to be too complacent regarding upside risks to the inflation outlook. The great awakening of workers and the steady rent increase (for the United States) are two of the factors which are likely to maintain inflation uncomfortably high into 2022, in our view. October CPI figures released earlier this week confirm that inflationary pressures may last longer than initially expected. Inflation reached levels which have not been seen for decades in the United Kingdom (+4.2% YoY), in the eurozone (+4.1% YoY) and in Canada (+4.7% YoY). In Canada, the jump in inflation is the strongest recorded in 18 years. For now, investors are confident. They believe the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank’s narrative that inflation will start to fall from early next year. This is far from certain, in our view. From supply chain bottlenecks to energy prices, everything suggests that inflationary pressures are far from over. Expect energy prices to continue increasing as temperatures will drop in Europe from next week onwards. This will weigh on November CPI data which will be released next month. The peak in inflation has not been reached. We fear investors are too complacent regarding upside risks to the inflation outlook. Every economic theory says inflation will be above 2% next year : ·         The Phillips curve is alive and well : workers are demanding higher salaries, amongst other advantages and their expectations are rising. ·         Monetarism : the global economy is characterized by large deposits, desire to spend and to convert cash into real assets. ·         Commitment approach : the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central bank (ECB) have a dovish bias. This is confirmed by their new inflation strategy (symmetric 2% inflation target over the medium term for the ECB and inflation of 2% over the longer run for the Fed). ·         Fiscal approach : high public debt and fiscal dominance (central banks need to remain dominant market players in the bond market to avoid a sharp increase in interest rates). ·         Supply-side approach : supply bottlenecks due to the zero Covid policy in China and central banks’ trade off higher inflation for a speedier economic recovery (the ECB especially). ·         Green transition : this is basically a tax on consumers. What has changed ? The wage-price spiral has started. In countries where the labor market is tight, workers are asking for higher salaries. In the United States, the manufacturer John Deere increased salaries significantly : +10% this year and +5% in 2023 and in 2025. It also agreed to a 3% bonus on even years to all employees, for instance. But this is happening in countries where the unemployment rate is high too. In France, the unemployment rate is falling. But it remains comparatively elevated at 7.6% in the third quarter. Earlier this week, the French Minister of Economy, Bruno Le Maire, called for higher salaries in the hospitality industry. A survey by the public investment bank BPI and the pro-business institute Rexecode show that 26% of small and medium companies are forced to propose higher salaries to find employees. Those which are reluctant choose to reduce business activity. The pandemic has fueled a great awakening of workers, in our view. They are demanding more : better job conditions, higher wages, more flexibility and purpose from work. This is more noticeable in countries facing labor shortage. But it is also visible in all the other developed economies to a variable extent.   U.S. steady rent increase is a game-changer. Until now, supply bottlenecks were the main driver behind the jump in prices. Now, housing costs (which represent about a third of living cost) and prices in the service sector are accelerating too. The rental market is tight, with low vacancy rates and a limited stock of available rentals. Expect rents to move upward in the coming months. According to official figures, owner’s equivalent rent, a measure of what homeowners believe their properties would rent for, rose 3.1% YoY in October. This certainly underestimates the real evolution of rents. Based on data reported by real estate agents at national level, the increase is between 7% and 15% YoY. All in all, this reinforces the view that inflationary pressures are proving more persistent than expected. The moment of truth : Expect investors not to question much the official narrative that inflation is transitory, for now. But if inflation does not decrease from 2022 onwards, investors will have to adjust their portfolio to an environment of more persistent inflation than initially anticipated. This may lead to market turmoil. In the interim, enjoy the Santa Claus rally which has started very early this year. The new inflation regime in the United States

S&P 500 rose, once again driven by tech and not value. That‘s still defensive, mirroring the weak credit markets posture. While waiting for bonds to turn – not that there wouldn‘t be an optimistic HYG open yesterday – the Austria lockdown news sent markets into a tailspin, the fear being good part of Europe would follow suit rather sooner than later. Oil has taken the crown of panicked selling, stocks held up better, and precious metals weren‘t changed much. Sure, any crippling of European economic activity would take a toll at the most sensitive commodities, but in light of energy policies across much of the Western world, it‘s my view that oil prices would be affected only in the short-term. This isn‘t a repeat of the Apr 2020 liquidation sending black gold negative. Rest of the world would be happy to step in, U.S. included, as we‘re entering winter with comparatively very low stockpiles from oil to copper – and don‘t get me started on silver. If you want green economy, these metals are essential, and oil is still in huge demand in the interim. Fed money printing hasn‘t vanished, debt ceiling awaits, and dollar is so far still solidly underpinned. Banking sector and emerging markets performance isn‘t panicky, but some time for stocks to come back at ATHs, is needed. Precious metals resilience is encouraging for commodities, which need the most time to recover (eyes on energy). Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bulls have the upper hand, but short-term volatility and uncertainty is creeping in. Still, there is no sinking the bull right here, right now. Credit Markets Tentative signs of credit markets stabilization are here, and HYG turnaround to last, is the missing sign. I‘m though not looking for risk-off slant to disappear, which would slow down the coming rise in yields. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver are still consolidating, and the more time passes at current levels, the less opportunity the bears have. The chart remains very bullish as precious metals are anticipating inflation to come. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls are facing spanner in the works today, and it‘s my view the sellers wouldn‘t get too far. I‘m looking at oil sector to presage that. Copper The copper setback was soundly bought, and commodities hardly sold off, the same for other base metals. I still like the chart posture – favors the bulls. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum bears took the gauntlet, and another opportunity to pause might be here. I‘m not yet optimistic prices would hold out before the upleg resumes. Summary S&P 500 bulls keep hanging in there, as if waiting for bonds to come to their senses. The credit markets non-confirmation being probably in its latter stages, was my yesterday‘s point – but with corona panic returning, all short-term bets are off. Looking at the big picture, energy hasn‘t been fixed, precious metals are set to rise sharply, and inflation hasn‘t yet knocked off stocks or the real economy. Look for VIX to keep rising from the current 17.50 level. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

The S&P500 ChartStorm is a selection of 10 charts which I hand pick from around the web and post on Twitter. The purpose of this post is to add extra color and commentary around the charts. The charts focus on the S&P500 (US equities); and the various forces and factors that influence the outlook - with the aim of bringing insight and perspective. Hope you enjoy! p.s. if you haven’t already, subscribe (free) to receive the ChartStorm direct to your inbox, so you don’t miss out on any charts (you never know which one could change the whole perspective!) Subscribe Now 1. S&P 500 Seasonality Chart: It’s everyone’s favorite chart updated again (maybe for the last time this year?). The S&P500 has been sticking to the seasonality script through most of this year… makes me think about Murphy’s Law tho - maybe the market will start to improvise and go off-script? Either way, the next few weeks seasonally look like sideways action. Source: @topdowncharts 2. Volatility Seasonality: A twist on the previous chart — same concept, but this time with implied volatility. I find it interesting to note that the VIX has actually been a bit lower than usual for this time of the year (and trending up short-term…). One last VIX spike before year-end? Source: @topdowncharts 3. Stockmarket Statistics: What happens after the market goes up a “crazy overheated” 20%+ over the course of a year? More Gains. Historically most of the time if the market closed up 20%+ for the year, the next year was also positive (84% of the time). As of writing, the market is up some 27% YTD (albeit, this year ain't over yet!). Source: @RyanDetrick 4. Bad Breadth? Fully 1/3rd of stocks are in a downtrend. (defined as trading below their respective 200dma) Will this bearish divergence be a problem? Source: Index Indicators 5. GAARP vs GAAAP: On this metric, growth stocks are the most expensive ever vs value stocks. So it begs the question… Growth at a reasonable price? or Growth at *any* price? (but then again, who defines what "reasonable" is in a market like this!) Source: @TheOneDave 6. Low Energy: Energy stocks are attempting to turn the corner vs the rest of the market, but face high hurdles from the raging tech bull market, rise of ESG investing and regulatory/political hurdles, not to mention commodity market volatility. What comes down must go up? (or something else?) Source: @dissectmarkets 7. Buybacks Back: New all-time high for buybacks in Q3 (with 95% reported). Always makes me wonder these trends — you see the majority of buybacks occurring near market peaks… i.e. when valuations are extreme expensive. The opposite of value investing: buy more when its expensive, buy less when it’s cheap — seems like upside-down logic to me, but then again I am a simple man. Source: @hsilverb 8. Payout Ratio: As an interesting follow-on to the ATH in buybacks/dividends, it’s interesting to note that the dividend payout ratio is actually below average... Scope to return more cash to investors? Source: @ChrisDagnes 9. Buffett Indicator: Looks like this indicator has reached a permanently higher plateau! (kidding of course - echoing the famous last words of Irving Fisher back in 1929) Interesting stat to note: to make this indicator as cheap as where it got to during the financial crisis lows the market would need to fall over 70%. Definitely not a prediction, but interesting nonetheless. I would say I have multiple quibbles with this indicator, I think CAPE and ERP are better valuation metrics, but that’s a topic for another day. Source: @KailashConcepts 10. Buffett the Compounder: Speaking of Buffett, a lesson in compounding. Source: @DividendGrowth Thanks for following, I appreciate your interest! !! BONUS CHART: total stockmarket leverage >> Click through to the ChartStorm Substack to see the bonus chart section https://chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-21-november                   Follow us on: Substack https://topdowncharts.substack.com/ LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/company/topdown-charts Twitter http://www.twitter.com/topdowncharts

Weekly chart, Silver in US-Dollar, strong along gold: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 20th, 2021. The weekly chart illustrates price behavior over the last 15 months. Silver prices are trading near the center of the sideways range. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart, rumors shrugged off: Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 20th, 2021. The weekly chart of gold isn’t much different from where prices stand. In short, there is no evidence that gold has lost its luster. Otherwise, we would see silver trading in a relationship much lower. Rumors are just that – rumors! Silver is shrugging them off. Silver in US-Dollar, quarterly chart, room to go: Silver in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of November 20th, 2021. A historical review with a quarterly chart over the last eighteen years reveals that silver prices can sustain extreme extensions from the mean (yellow line) for extended periods. Using the extreme of the second quarter in 2011 as a projective measurement (orange vertical line) for an upcoming target would provide for a price target more than 10% above all-time highs at US$56. In addition, the chart shows that we find ourselves in a strong quarter so far, which is in alignment with cyclical probabilities. Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, prepping the play: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 20th, 2021. Trade setup Let us return to the weekly time frame for a possible low-risk entry scenario with this target in mind.We find a supply zone based on fractal transactional volume analysis near the price of US$24.11 and US$22.65. Both attractive entry zones for excellent risk/reward-ratio plays.   Phase 1 drilling program at Guigui discovered not only the largest intrusive ever found in the district, but it’s the first mineralized skarn ever seen in Guigui! Silver, shrugging off attacks: It will not be rumors, doubts, and speculations that will be the catalyst for silvers’ success or failure. It isn’t a question of “if,” but just a question of “when” we will see the next massive price advance in this precious metal. The odds are stacked too much in favor of a continued price movement up that the long-term investor should let doubts allow for diverging from a splendid opportunity to partake in wealth preservation and a very profitable way to participate in a chance rarely presented this prominent. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|November 20th, 2021|Tags: Crack-Up-Boom, Gold, Gold bullish, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

Summary:  This summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities, forex and financials up until last Tuesday, November 16. The report shows the reaction to the US inflation shock on November 11 which among others drove strong demand for gold and more surprisingly a reduction in the dollar long. Also another strong week for most agriculture commodities with positions in coffee and KCB wheat hitting fresh multi-year highs Saxo Bank publishes weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial. Link to latest report This summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities, forex and financials up until last Tuesday, November 16. A week where the market responded to the US inflation shock on November 11 by sending  the dollar up by 2% to fresh high for the cycle while 10-year breakeven yields jumped 20 basis point a decade high. While bond market volatility jumped, stocks held steady with the VIX showing a small decline. The commodity sector was mixed with gains in precious metals and not least grains and soft commodities helping offset weakness across the energy sector.  Commodities Hedge funds raised their total commodity exposure, measured in lots, across 24 major futures contracts by the most since July. Driven by continued strong price action across the agriculture sector and more recently also precious metals in response to surging inflation. These sectors saw all but one market being bought while the energy sector were mixed with continued selling of crude oil only being partly offset by demand for gasoline and natural gas. Energy: Crude oil’s four week slide resulted in the biggest weekly reduction since July, and this time, as opposed to recent weeks, it was WTI that led the reduction with a 10% cut to 307k apart from a deteriorating short-term technical outlook also being driven the prospect of a US stockpile release to dampen domestic gasoline prices. Brent meanwhile saw its net long slump to a one-year low at 221.5k lots, and during the past six weeks the net length has now slumped by one-third, a reduction which gathered momentum after the late October failure to break the 2018 high at $86.75, now a double top. Crude oil comment from our daily Market Quick Take: Crude oil (OILUKJAN22 & OILUSDEC21) opened softer in Asia after Friday’s big drop but has so far managed to find support at $77.85, the previous top from July. The market focus has during the past few weeks shifted from the current tight supply to the risk of a coordinated reserve release, fears about a renewed Covid-driven slowdown in demand and recent oil market reports from the EIA and IEA pointing to a balanced market in early 2022. Having dropped by around 10% from the recent peak, the market may have started to conclude that a SPR release has mostly been price in by now. Metals: Another week of strong gold buying has now raised the alarm bells given the risk of long liquidation should the yellow metal fail to hold onto its US CPI price boost above $1830. Last week the net long in gold reached a 14-month high at 164k lots and the speed of the accumulation, especially the 70% jump during the past two weeks alone carries, will be raising a red flag for tactical trading strategies looking for pay day on short positions should support give way.  Gold extended Friday’s drop below $1850 overnight, before bouncing ahead of key support in the mentioned $1830-35 area. The risk of a quicker withdrawal of Fed stimulus supporting real yields and the dollar has for now reduced gold's ability to build on the technical breakout. However, the price softness on Friday helped attract ETF buying with Bloomberg reporting a 10 tons increase, the biggest one-day jump since January 15. A second week of silver buying lifted the net to a four-week high at 35.9k lots, but still below the May peak at 47.8k lots. Copper’s rangebound trading behavior kept the price and the net long unchanged. The latter due to an even size addition of both new long and short positions. Agriculture: Broad gains across the grains market lifted the combined long across the six most traded contracts to a six-month high at 560k lots. Buyers returned to soybeans after the net long recently hit a 17-month low, the corn long was the biggest since May while the KCB wheat long at 60.6k lots was the highest since August 2018. Supported by an increasingly worrying supply outlook, coffee speculators lifted their net long by 16% to a five-year high at 55k lots. Cotton and sugar longs also rose while short-covering helped halve the cocoa net short. More on the reasons behind the current strength in wheat and coffee, and agriculture in general can be found in may recent update: Agriculture rally resumes led by coffee, wheat and sugar ForexIn a surprise response to the US inflation shock on November 11 speculators ended up making a small reduction in their overall dollar long against ten IMM futures and the Dollar index. Selling of euro in response to the 2.4% drop and a 161% increase in the sterling short to a 17 month high ended up being more than off-set by the buying of all other major currencies, most notably JPY and CHF. The result being a fifth weekly reduction in the dollar long to $21.3 billion, now down by 17% reduction from the near 30-month high reached during October. What is the Commitments of Traders report? The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class. Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and otherFinancials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and otherForex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators) The reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of the highlighted groups are: They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming

November 20, 2021 By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 16th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT Currency data this week is the second straight decline in British pound sterling speculative positions. The pound sterling speculator contracts dropped sharply for the second consecutive week this week and have now fallen by a total of -46,646 contracts over just this two-week time period. These declines have pushed the overall speculative position into a bearish sentiment level of -31,599 contracts which marks the lowest standing of the past seventy-six weeks, dating back to June 2nd of 2020. The GBPUSD currency pair has been under pressure since the middle of October and fallen from around 1.3800 exchange rate to just above the 1.3435 level currently, a drop of almost 400 pips. Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Nov-16-2021 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index EUR 705,698 86 -3,826 34 -26,985 68 30,811 25 JPY 252,897 91 -93,126 10 115,758 94 -22,632 1 GBP 207,099 43 -31,599 51 41,182 54 -9,583 36 MXN 170,102 33 -47,655 2 46,127 99 1,528 50 AUD 166,688 57 -61,153 27 69,858 71 -8,705 31 CAD 148,955 30 8,709 62 -26,717 35 18,008 74 USD Index 59,387 88 34,908 86 -40,455 7 5,547 77 RUB 52,624 58 22,625 67 -23,936 31 1,311 70 CHF 49,320 27 -8,889 54 18,767 52 -9,878 34 NZD 42,945 30 13,965 95 -15,521 6 1,556 70 BRL 31,767 32 -15,698 48 15,743 54 -45 66 Bitcoin 13,648 78 -1,478 69 357 0 1,121 23   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 34,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -540 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,448 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent. Free Reports: Top 5 Companies Added to Our Stock Watch List this Quarter - Here are the Stock Symbols that stood out so far in the fourth quarter of 2021. Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.   US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.8 3.4 12.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.0 71.5 3.5 – Net Position: 34,908 -40,455 5,547 – Gross Longs: 47,959 2,000 7,621 – Gross Shorts: 13,051 42,455 2,074 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.7 to 1 0.0 to 1 3.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 86.0 7.4 77.2 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.0 -2.7 -13.6   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,826 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,773 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.1 57.3 12.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.6 61.1 8.4 – Net Position: -3,826 -26,985 30,811 – Gross Longs: 198,181 404,266 90,261 – Gross Shorts: 202,007 431,251 59,450 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.8 68.1 25.4 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.7 -5.2 -0.0   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -31,599 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -19,506 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,093 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.4 61.4 11.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.6 41.5 15.9 – Net Position: -31,599 41,182 -9,583 – Gross Longs: 50,443 127,197 23,322 – Gross Shorts: 82,042 86,015 32,905 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.2 54.0 35.8 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.3 9.2 -8.1   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -93,126 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,225 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,351 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.8 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.7 80.5 8.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.6 34.7 17.6 – Net Position: -93,126 115,758 -22,632 – Gross Longs: 24,635 203,468 21,790 – Gross Shorts: 117,761 87,710 44,422 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 10.4 93.7 0.8 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.4 15.5 -4.1   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -8,889 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,154 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,043 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.2 64.2 24.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.2 26.1 44.5 – Net Position: -8,889 18,767 -9,878 – Gross Longs: 5,502 31,663 12,048 – Gross Shorts: 14,391 12,896 21,926 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 54.4 52.0 34.3 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.9 -12.2 11.8   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,709 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,605 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,104 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.6 42.1 27.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.8 60.0 15.0 – Net Position: 8,709 -26,717 18,008 – Gross Longs: 44,147 62,689 40,389 – Gross Shorts: 35,438 89,406 22,381 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 62.3 34.9 74.0 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 29.6 -26.4 10.0   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -61,153 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,271 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,424 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.5 67.2 11.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 55.1 25.3 17.1 – Net Position: -61,153 69,858 -8,705 – Gross Longs: 30,760 112,044 19,744 – Gross Shorts: 91,913 42,186 28,449 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.1 71.0 31.2 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 27.1 -29.0 24.4   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 13,965 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,083 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,882 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 61.4 24.1 11.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.9 60.2 7.8 – Net Position: 13,965 -15,521 1,556 – Gross Longs: 26,388 10,349 4,923 – Gross Shorts: 12,423 25,870 3,367 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.1 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.7 6.5 69.7 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.9 -11.8 19.8   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of -47,655 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 752 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,407 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.1 55.3 3.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 69.2 28.2 2.2 – Net Position: -47,655 46,127 1,528 – Gross Longs: 69,984 94,074 5,245 – Gross Shorts: 117,639 47,947 3,717 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 2.0 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 1.5 98.8 49.5 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.5 5.6 -1.5   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of -15,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -240 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,458 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.7 64.6 8.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 76.1 15.0 8.2 – Net Position: -15,698 15,743 -45 – Gross Longs: 8,468 20,507 2,545 – Gross Shorts: 24,166 4,764 2,590 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 4.3 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.6 54.4 66.3 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.9 19.3 -12.9   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week was a net position of 22,625 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,922 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,703 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 57.7 37.7 4.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.7 83.2 2.1 – Net Position: 22,625 -23,936 1,311 – Gross Longs: 30,357 19,849 2,418 – Gross Shorts: 7,732 43,785 1,107 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.9 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 66.9 30.7 70.2 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.2 -3.3 -20.9   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,478 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,467 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 63.4 5.0 14.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 74.2 2.4 6.5 – Net Position: -1,478 357 1,121 – Gross Longs: 8,649 678 2,008 – Gross Shorts: 10,127 321 887 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 2.1 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.7 71.4 22.9 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.9 -20.8 4.5 Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

GBPUSD hits resistance The pound pulled back after Britain’s retail sales registered a steeper drop to -1.3% in October. The pair has met stiff selling pressure in the supply zone around 1.3510, a support that has turned into resistance after a failed rebound. An oversold RSI may cause a limited rebound. However, a bearish MA cross on the daily chart suggests that sentiment is still pessimistic. 1.3380 is a key support to keep the sterling afloat. A bearish breakout may trigger an extended sell-off to last December’s lows around 1.3200. USDCAD breaks higher The Canadian dollar struggles after a contraction in September’s retail numbers. The US dollar bounced off the resistance-turned-support at 1.2580. This is a sign that the bulls are still in control. A bullish MA cross on the daily timeframe confirms the directional bias for the next few days. The daily resistance at 1.2770 would be the next target. Its break would lead to a test of the double top at 1.2900. In the meantime, the RSI’s overextension has temporarily held the bulls back. We can also expect buying interest during dips. GER 40 struggles for support The Dax 40 tumbles as lockdowns across Europe hurt sentiment. The RSI’s overbought situation on the daily chart has made buyers cautious in pursuing high valuations. On the hourly chart, a bearish RSI divergence suggests a deceleration in the upward momentum. Then a dip below 16200 confirms weakness in the rally, prompting leverage positions to liquidate. The psychological level of 16000 is a congestion area as it coincides with last August’s peak and the 20-day moving average. 16300 is now a fresh hurdle.

How do you feel about adding a broader range of stocks to our energy investment portfolio watchlist? Let’s see what we can do! By the way, feel free to send us your questions or topics that you would like us to write about in the forthcoming editions, so we’ll try our best to answer them! Trading positions are available to our premium subscribers. First, let’s quickly define what biofuels are: A biofuel is a liquid or gaseous fuel derived from the transformation of non-fossil organic matter from biomass, for example, plant materials produced by agriculture (beets, wheat, corn, rapeseed, sunflowers, potatoes, etc.). So, it is considered a source of renewable energy. The combustion of biofuels produces only carbon dioxide (CO2) and steam (H2O) and little or no nitrogen and sulfur oxides. Therefore, biofuels – as being at the crossroads between energy and agricultural commodities – respond to economic drivers (crops/supply, demand, dollar strength, reserves, etc.) and geopolitics of both industrial sectors. Furthermore, they allow their producing countries to reduce their energy dependence on fossil fuels. Key reasons to invest in these alternative energy sources: Given the recent surge of oil and gas prices, biofuels have become somehow more attractive, and consequently one could witness a slight shift in demand from fossil to non-fossil fuels. This was also a central topic of talks during the recent United Nations Conference of the Parties (COP26), which recently took place in Glasgow (Scotland), and where world leaders finally agreed to preliminary rules for trading carbon emissions credits. In addition, as we all know, the combustion of fossil fuels contributes to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Regarding biofuels - the carbon emitted to the atmosphere during their combustion has been previously fixed by plants during photosynthesis. Thus, the carbon footprint seems to be a priori neutral. Stock Watchlist (Continued) In the first article, we started a watchlist with some major energy stocks. In the second article, we added some more spicy assets (MLPs). Today, let’s update it with some biofuel-based stocks! As usual, our stock picks will be shared through that link to our dynamic watchlist which will be updated from time to time, as we progress through this portfolio construction process... Below is an example of some indicative metrics: Daily Technical Charts Figure 1 – Green Plains, Inc. (GPRE) Stock (daily chart) Figure 2 – Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX) Stock (daily chart) Figure 3 – Tantech Holdings Ltd. (TANH) Stock (daily chart) In summary, those biofuel-related stocks may present some benefits to diversifying your energy portfolio while covering some alternative fuels as well. As always, we’ll keep you, our subscribers well informed. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve a high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie --- 627th Edition --- Monte-Carlo --- 20 November 2021 (published each Saturday) --- www.deMeadville.com As time is at a bit of a premium for penning this week's missive, (even as Gold is priced at a massive discount by valuation), let's jump right in. The macro question at large we oft receive is: â–  "How come Gold isn't much higher with all the money printing?" Macro indeed per the above Gold Scoreboard, price having settled yesterday (Friday) at $1847, just 46% of our valuation level of $3993. To be sure per the right-hand panel Gold is, on balance, in ascent toward chasing the unconscionable rise in the U.S. "M2" money supply; yet the gap from here to up there remains HUGE! The micro question of late we oft receive is: â–  "How come Gold is going up even if the Dollar is also going up?" Micro indeed as such phenomenon does on occasion occur given (for the ad nauseath time) Gold plays no currency favourites. To be sure, both Gold and the Buck have been on the rise per their percentage tracks for the 15 trading days thus far in November. Here as shown, Gold is +3.5% and the Dollar Index is +2.1%. Yes, Gomer, it really can happen: In fact "surprise, surprise, surprise" if measuring from mid-year 2014, (albeit their respective routes hardly are in linear harmony), Gold is +39.7% and yet the Dollar Index is +20.4%. So even more broadly there, no directional favoritism. And yet from that date some seven years ago, the supply of Gold is only +10.7% whereas the U.S. "M2" money supply is +88.4%. Further with specific respect (or lack thereof) to the Dollar, recall from Econ 101 class that more of something (in this case much more) makes it worth less, arguably in the Dollar's case worthless. And yet an inevitable -- some say forcibly imminent -- Federal Reserve interest rate increase (versus, for example, sovereign bank rates in Europe still seen as staying essentially negative for the foreseeable future), is therefore getting the Dollar a bid such as to push the Buck into the lead of the currencies' so-called Ugly Dog Contest. 'Course, attempting to explain irrationality is an exercise in same, in this case more Dollars nonetheless being worth more whatevers. And even irrespective of inflation, we read speculation this past week of the €uro ultimately collapsing ... and being replaced by the Dollar. "What?" But then, could such dual-continent currency still be deemed a "Federal Reserve Note"? Either way, we wouldn't recommend your losing sleep over this whimsy. For if you've Gold, you're fine. And looking .9999 fine is our chart of Gold's weekly bars with their parabolic long trend, now neatly in place these past three weeks. Yes, Gold put in an acceptable net loss for this recent week after having been up for five of the prior seven. However, the daily table therein of our BEGOS Markets "Breakout?" suggestions popped up last evening with "Sell" for both precious metals. So some further slipping may be seen into the ensuing week; yet on balance by the bars' structure in the chart, the 1800s not only appear safe, but the dashed regression trend line is now more perceptively rotating from negative toward positive. And that would tie in well (as historically noted last week) with Gold reaching 1971 during this new parabolic Long run: Thus having awakened the dip buyers, let's turn to the StateSide economy, by which our Economic Barometer had a sound week and sufficiently so as to put it on pace toward recording its second best month year-to-date. For the week's 14 incoming metrics, 12 were improvements over the prior period, the only two negatives being inflationary October Import Prices (even ex-Oil) and a slight slowing in that month's Housing Starts. But the latter was mitigated by growth in Building Permits, plus a firm increase in November's National Association of Home Builders Index. November also scored marked increases for both the New York State Empire and Philly Fed Indexes. Other positives included October's Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, and the Conference Board's lagging read of Leading Indicators. "'Tis all good, right?" Well, just bear in mind there, Bunky, that much of Q3's Gross Domestic Product "growth" was mitigated by a very high Chain Deflator, (i.e. inflationary rather than real growth): And as to Q3 Earnings Season, it just ended as follows: for the S&P 500, 80% of reporting constituents beat both estimates and prior period results. 'Tis rare when the latter keeps up with the former. However more broadly, 1,440 other mid-cap and smaller companies by our tabulation found just 56% having actually improved over 2020's Q3 shutdown period. That's an uh-oh... But in toto, great economics (arguably inflationarily but not really) + great earnings (by estimates but not always actual growth) = S&P 500 all-time highs. Moreover, money is pouring into the stock market per the website's S&P Moneyflow page: "Let's all buy high!" 'Tis quite extraordinary. "So then maybe this a blow-off top, mmb..." Squire, we long ago stopped counting the number of would-be S&P blow-off tops. Remember: as we've herein put forth for many-a-year, this is now the age of the stock market being the Great American Savings Account. "You have to be IN!" they say. "Gold's for the BIN!" they say. And then there's the ever-annoying individual blurter: "I bought X back at blah and am now making BLAH!" For whom we have this important reminder: the market capitalization of the S&P 500 as of Friday night is $41.4 trillion; yet the liquid M2 money supply of the U.S. is but half that at $21.4 trillion. So when it all goes wrong, good luck in getting out with something. Meanwhile amongst it all going good, we read that a record number of StateSide workers are quitting their jobs, the notion being they can do better doing something else. Watch for this great mania of "There's a better way!" and "My stocks are so up!" ultimately ending with "What was I thinking?" Then from the "We Knew This Was Coming Dept." it seems just mere weeks go by before yet again U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet "Old Yeller" Yellen has to chase down the Legislature 'cause she's run out of dough to make the country go. For sanity's sakes: "Got Gold?" Hopefully as the Fed Chair passes to Lael "The Brain" Brainard, she and the Treasury Secretary can sort it all out. (See too: "In Like Flint", 20th Century Fox, '67). From steely flint to a wee loss of glint describes at present our precious metals. Per the two-panel graphic below, we see on the left a bit of a topping pattern in the daily bars, but again with structural support still well within the 1800s. Then on the right in Gold's 10-day Market Profile, 1864 clearly is the dominant price traded across these past two weeks: Silver, too, shows similar toppiness per her daily bars (at left) with the low 24s/high 23s as supportive; then in her Profile (at right), 25.15 is where the bulk of Sister Silver's action has been: In sum, we see a bit of near-term pullback for Gold and Silver, but nothing really materially daunting, especially given the notion of 1971 during Gold's current parabolic up run; (you'll recall from a week ago, arriving at that level equates to the median gain of the 43 prior parabolic Long trends since the year 2001). And at some point -- you know, and we know, and everyone from Bangor, Maine to Honolulu and right 'round the word knows that -- the Buck ultimately shall run out of luck. Indeed to that end (and so much more), in having opened with a couple of questions, let's close with one that came in this past week from a highly-valued publisher of The Gold Update: "Do you think $1900 is nigh?" Our response in kind: "$4000 is nigh." Cheers! ...m... www.deMeadville.com www.deMeadville.com

NAS 100 pulls back Investors took profit after Jerome Powell’s renomination as US Federal Reserve Chairman. The tech index saw an acceleration in its rally after a break above the previous peak (16450). Strong momentum suggests that buyers are committed to keeping the uptrend intact after a brief pause. However, the RSI’s triple top in the overbought area indicates exhaustion, and a fall below 16550 has triggered a correction. 16300 is the next support from a previous supply zone. A rebound needs to clear 16750 before the rally could resume. AUDUSD struggles for support China’s property slowdown and lower commodity prices weigh on the Australian dollar. The pair has given up most of its gains from the October rally, a sign that support is hard to come by. Nonetheless, a series of lower lows has attracted trend followers’ interest in maintaining the status quo. 0.7220 is an intermediate support. An oversold RSI may prompt the short side to cover, raising bids in the process. However, the bulls will need to lift offers around the former support at 0.7300 before they could expect to turn the tables. NZDJPY seeks support The New Zealand dollar remains under pressure after disappointing retail sales in Q3. The kiwi is seeking support after a surge above last May’s peak at 81.20 led the daily RSI into an overbought situation. Short-term sentiment remains bearish as the pair struggles to achieve a new high. 80.55 is a major resistance after the bulls’ multiple failed attempts. A bullish breakout may pave the way for a reversal towards 82.00. Otherwise, a drop below 79.50 would send the pair towards September’s high at 78.50.

With this psychological burden, you want to stack your odds as good as possible to gain an edge for balance. Bitcoin provides such advantages. The inherent volatility allows for follow-through after an entry. In other words, one gets good risk/reward-ratios in midterm plays on bitcoin. Also, necessary for the long-term time frame player since hodling has another psychological hurdle that piled on top can be devastating. You won’t find many traders who bought a bundle of bitcoin when it traded at a dollar and are still holding it without ever having sold or rebought some. BTC in US-Dollar, Quarterly Chart, the Doji explosion: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Quarterly chart as of November 23rd, 2021. The quarterly chart of bitcoin shows how explosive moves to the upside can be. If you look at the yellow lines, you will see that a small Doji builds after a retracement, and then prices explode within the next quarter like rockets. This trading behavior provides for sensational risk/reward-ratios. The quarterly chart shows a bullish quarter. Even though all-time highs have been rejected, we see the year ending on a bullish note. The great thing about this self-directed profession, on the other hand, is that you get all the credit. Work directly translates into money, without the typical step in between, selling a product or a service. If you are good at what you are doing in the trading/investing arena, rewards can be more than plentiful. No gift baskets need to be sent to a boss or coworker. True rewards for arduous work to yourself. A very self-fulfilling profession indeed. BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, most often trending: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 23rd, 2021. The monthly chart illustrates the steepness of the trend, and yellow lines provide a possible long reload opportunity, which will take all-time highs out next year. Another benefit for individual traders choosing to trade bitcoin is its unique personality of trending much more than most trading instruments. This unique feature adds a massive edge to a trader’s trading arsenal. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, freeing investment capital fast: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 23rd, 2021. But this isn’t all. From a trading perspective, bitcoin supports the unsupported individual in comparison to gold or silver as alternate wealth preservation tools due to its speed. Risk is the most defining aspect for a trader, and consequently, capital exposure time is the most crucial aspect. After all, the longer money is in the market, the more exposed it is, let’s say, to unexpected news and six sigma events. Market money parked cannot produce elsewhere and is also emotionally draining. No such thing in bitcoin.A look at the weekly time frame illustrates what we mean by this. It took less than eight weeks for bitcoin to gain staggering percentage moves within the first and second leg in this steep regression channel up. We also just entered a low-risk entry zone again for a third leg to mature. In short, you are all alone with bitcoin, but at least you picked the most ideal alliance with this trading vehicle to stack the odds in your favor. All alone with bitcoin: The business of market play is unique. You’re not learning this skill in school, mentors are hard to come by, and it isn’t a group sport. It is advisable to seek out a community of like-minded traders like our free telegram channel, since spouses rarely can comprehend the steepness of the learning curve and the challenges of constant self-reflection and pain until the consistency is mastered.  While one typically can team up and is supported within a group at the mastery level required, it’s a solo sport in trading.  Statistics support that the likeliest reason for failure in this business is underestimating the time required to acquire all the important skills necessary for success. New traders run either out of money or patience.  The press makes it look so easy, and the fact that all one needs to do is press a button doesn’t help towards a more respectful attitude. Yet, the mere truth is that it is one of the most demanding businesses to find oneself into. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|November 23rd, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

S&P 500 reversed from fresh ATHs as spiking yields sent tech packing. Value didn‘t soar, but held up considerably better – still, stock bulls are getting on the defensive. Markets have interpreted the Powell nomination as a hawkish choice. I‘ve written the prior Monday:(…) the Fed is still printing a huge amount of money on a monthly basis, and it remains questionable how far in tapering plans execution they would actually get – I see the risks to the real economy coupled with persistently high inflation as rising since the 2Q 2022 (if not since Mar already, but most pronounced in 2H 2022.Inflation hasn‘t moved to the Fed‘s sights, and yesterday‘s rection in yields and precious metals is a bit too harsh. While rates are on a rising path as I‘ve written yesterday, precious metals overreacted. True, the bullish argument for the dollar stepped to the fore as yields differential between the U.S. and the rest of the world got more positive, and at the same time, various yield spreads keep compressing. That‘s a reflection of less favorable incoming economic data. Just as much as Friday‘s reaction was about corona economic impact projections, yesterday‘s one was about monetary policy anticipation.Inflation expectations though barely budged – the decline doesn‘t count as trend reversal. CPI isn‘t done rising, and the more forward looking incoming data (e.g. producer prices) would confirm there is more to come. All in all, it looks like precious metals (and to a smaller degree commodities), are giving Powell benefit of the doubt, which I view to be leading to disappointment over the coming months. Should Powell heed the markets‘ will, the real economy would weaken dramatically, forcing him to make a sharp dovish turn – and he would, faster than he flipped since getting challenged in Dec 2018.We‘re experiencing an overreaction in real assets – as stated yesterday:(…) the Fed would have to reverse course once the tapering effects start biting some more – not now, with still more than $100bn monthly addition. Cyclicals and commodities that had massively appreciated vs. year ago (oil doubled), are feeling the pinch of fresh economic activity curbs speculation in spite of the polar shift of U.S. strength in energy of 2019 and before. Begging the OPEC+ to increase production might not do the trick, and with so much inflation already in (and still to come), the key investment theme is of real assets strength.Precious metals have broken out, are no longer an underdog, and the inflation data will not decelerate for quite a few months still. And even as they would, it would come at a palpable cost to the real economy, and the resolute fresh stimulus action wouldn‘t be then far off. As I wrote in Apr 2020, it‘s about the continuous stimulus that‘s the go-to response anytime the horizon darkens, for whatever reason. Wash, rinse, repeat.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls lost the momentary upper hand, and value recovery isn‘t yet strong enough to carry it forward. A less heavy move in bonds – temporary yields stabilization – would be needed to calm down stock market nerves.Credit MarketsTreasuries held up best, and that‘s characteristic of a very risk-off sentiment. The low volume in HYG isn‘t a promise of much strength soon returning.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals turned sharply lower, and haven‘t stabilized yet. Bond market pressures are keenly felt even though inflation expectations didn‘t follow with the same veracity. The next few days will be really telling.Crude OilCrude oil bulls have made a good move, and more strength needs to follow. The fact that it would be happening when the dollar is strengthening, and many countries are tapping their strategic reserves, bodes well for black gold‘s recovery.CopperCopper springboard bulding goes on, and the CRB Index isn‘t tellingly yielding – the hawkish Fed bets better be taken with a (at least short-term) pinch of salt.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum are still going sideways, and today‘s resilience is a good omen – across the board for risk assets.SummaryS&P 500 bulls need tech to come alive again, and odds are it would with a reprieve in spiking yields. While bond markets are getting it right, yesterday‘s fear in corporate bonds was a bit too much – the Fed isn‘t yet in a position to choke off the real economy through slamming on the breaks. Markets are prematurely speculating on that outcome, which would be a question of second or third quarter next year. Treasuries have though clearly topped, and stocks do top with quite a few months‘ lag – we aren‘t there yet. Enjoy the commodities ride, and confidence gradually returning to precious metals.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Summary:  Interest rate sensitivity came back roaring yesterday pushing down all of our growth baskets. Yesterday's move shows the potential for a correction in US technology stocks should the US 10-year yield continue to rapidly advance towards the highs from March. We also show how the Nasdaq 100 and STOXX 600 move in opposite direction during large up or down days in the US 10-year yield. Growth baskets look awfully vulnerable Yesterday’s move in the US 10-year yield of 8 basis points made it the 10th biggest move higher in US yields this year. Back in March when technology stocks were under pressure we wrote a lot about interest rate sensitivity in growth stocks as their present value are derived from expected cash flows further into the future than the typical MSCI World company. If interest rates rise faster than future growth expectations then the net effect is negative on the present value and more so for growth stocks as they have a higher duration. We saw downside beta (higher sensitivity) in all of our growth equity baskets with the gaming basket down 2.3% and the worst performers being the E-commerce and Crypto & Blockchain baskets down 4.2% and 5.1% respectively. This tells you a lot about the sensitivity and given the drawdown in technology stocks back in March, we could easily experience a 15-20% drawdown in technology stocks. The local highs from March in the US 10-year yield is the key level to watch for a breakout and a new trading environment. With all the options activity in Tesla dwarfing the combined options activity in FTSE 100 constituents, we believe Tesla will be at the center of the next risk-off move in technology. Nasdaq 100 vs STOXX 600 are yin and yang of interest rates We have previously tried to calculate the interest rate sensitivity, but this time we are pursuing a different approach. We look at the past 231 trading days this year and group the 1-day difference in the US 10-year yield into deciles. In order to measure interest rate sensitivity we calculate daily excess log returns for Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and STOXX 600 against the MSCI World Index and compute their average daily excess return for each decile. As the barplot shows, there is significant negative excess return in Nasdaq 100 in the 1st decile (the 10% days with the highest positive difference in US 10-year yield) and significant positive excess return in STOXX 600. This makes perfect sense because Nasdaq 100 is high duration growth stocks and STOXX 600 has a clear value tilt towards financials, energy and mining which exhibit much lower duration. The pattern is completely reversed in the 10th decline (days with large negative difference in US 10-year yield). The other eight deciles do not show the same clear spread between Nasdaq 100 and STOXX 600. In other words, if interest rates suddenly move aggressively higher then growth portfolio will take a serious hit and hence why we recommend investors to improve the balance between growth and value stocks, or said differently reduce the equity duration.

The S&P 500 index nearly topped its record high on Friday, but it closed lower following an intraday decline. Is this a topping pattern? For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch . The S&P 500 index lost 0.14% on Friday, Nov. 19, as it extended its short-term consolidation along the 4,700 level. The broad stock market went sideways despite record-breaking rallies in large tech stocks like AAPL, MSFT and NVDA. It still looks like a short-term topping pattern, as the S&P 500 index keeps bouncing from the Nov. 5 record high of 4,718.50. The nearest important support level remains at 4,630-4,650 and the next support level is at 4,600. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,700-4,720. The S&P 500 continues to trade along the 4,700 level, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq Reached the New Record High Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index reached the new record high of 16,625.86 on Friday, led by megacap tech stock rallies. It accelerated above its short-term upward trend line after breaking above the resistance level of 16,400 on Thursday. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we can see some short-term overbought conditions. Apple and Microsoft at New Record Highs Let’s take a look at the two biggest stocks in the S&P 500 index, AAPL and MSFT. Apple accelerated its uptrend after breaking above the resistance level of around $152-154. It reached the new record high on Friday at $161.02. Microsoft slightly extended its recent advance, as it reached the new record high of $345.10. The two biggest megacap tech stocks reached new record highs, as we can see on their daily charts: Conclusion The S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.4% higher this morning. We will likely see some more short-term fluctuations along the record high level. For now, it looks like a short-term consolidation and a flat correction within an uptrend. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 is fluctuating along the 4,700 level. For now, it looks like a short-term consolidation following the October-November rally. Still no positions are justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak, Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  Democrats are not slowing down - the social spending bill follows the infrastructure package. Will gold benefit, or will it get into deep water? Will the American spending spree ever end? On Monday last week (November 15, 2021), President Biden signed a $1 trillion infrastructure package, and just a few days later, Biden’s social spending bill worth another $1.75 trillion passed the US House of Representatives. Apparently, $1 trillion was not enough! Apparently, we don’t already have too much money chasing too few goods. No, the economy needs even more money! Yes, I can almost hear the lament of American families: “we need more money, we already bought everything possible, we already own three cars and a lot of other useless crap, but we need more! Please, the almighty government, give us some bucks, let your funds revive our land”. Luckily, the gracious Uncle Sam listened to the prayers of its poor citizens. Given the above, one could think that the US economy is not already heavily indebted. Well, it’s the exact opposite. As the chart below shows, the American public debt is more than $27 trillion and 125% of GDP, but who cares except for a few boring economists? Of course, neither infrastructure nor spending bill will increase the fiscal deficits and overall indebtedness to a similar extent as the pandemic spending packages. These funds will be spread over years. Additionally, the fiscal deficit should narrow in FY 2022 as pandemic relief spending phases out (this is already happening, as the chart below shows), while the economic recovery combined with inflation tax bracket creep increases tax revenues. However, both of Biden’s bills will increase indebtedness, lowering the financial resilience of the US economy. What’s more, the overall debt is much larger than the public debt I focused on here. Other categories of debt are also rising. For instance, total household debt has jumped 6.2% in the third quarter of 2021 year-over-year, to a new record of $15.2 trillion.   Implications for Gold What does the fiscal offensive imply for the precious metal market? In the short run, not much. Fiscal hawks like me will complain, but gold is a tough metal that does not cry. Both of Biden’s pieces of legislation have been widely accepted, so their impact has already been incorporated into prices. Actually, the actual bills could be even seen as conservative – compared to Biden’s initial radical proposals. In the long run, fiscal exuberance should be supportive of gold prices. The ever-rising public debt should zombify the economy and erode the confidence in the US dollar, which could benefit the yellow metal. However, the empire collapses slowly, and there is still a long way before people cease to choose the greenback as their most beloved currency (there is simply no alternative!). So, it seems that, in the foreseeable future, gold’s path will still be dependent mainly on inflation worries and expectations of the Fed’s action. Most recently, gold prices have stabilized somewhat after the recent rally, as the chart below shows. Normal profit-taking took place, but gold found itself under pressure also because of the hawkish speech by Fed Governor Christopher Waller. He described inflation as a heavy snowfall that would stay on the ground for a while, rather than a one-inch dusting: Consider a snowfall, which we know will eventually melt. Snow is a transitory shock. If the snowfall is one inch and is expected to melt away the next day, it may be optimal to do nothing and wait for it to melt. But if the snowfall is 6 to 12 inches and expected to be on the ground for a week, you may want to act sooner and shovel the sidewalks and plow the streets. To me, the inflation data are starting to look a lot more like a big snowfall that will stay on the ground for a while, and that development is affecting my expectations of the level of monetary accommodation that is needed going forward. So, brace yourselves, a janitor is coming with a big shovel to clean the snow! Just imagine Powell with a long-eared cap, gloves, and galoshes giving a press conference! At least the central bankers would finally do something productive! Or… maybe shoveling is not coming! Although the Fed may turn a bit more hawkish if inflation stays with us for longer than expected previously, it should remain behind the curve, while the real interest rates should stay ultra-low. The December FOMC meeting will provide us with more clues, so stay tuned! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

EuroStoxx 50 December just completed a head & shoulders reversal pattern for a sell signal initially targeting minor support at 4310/00. FTSE 100 December a high for the day exactly at first resistance at 7240/60. Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis. Dax holding minor resistance at 16140/160 to retest strong support at 16090/060. Try longs with stops below 16040. A break lower however is a sell signal with 16060/090 working as resistance targeting 16000 & a buying opportunity at 15960/930. Try longs with stops below 15900. A break above 16180 keeps bulls in control for today targeting 16260/280. A break above 16290 should target 16350/390. EuroStoxx holding the head & shoulders neckline resistance at 4330/40 targets 4310/00 then 4270/60, perhaps as far as strong support at 4240/30. Resistance at 4330/40 but above here allows a recovery to 4375/80 before a retest of 4400/10. Anyone want to bet on a double top sell signal here? A break above 4410 however targets 4418/20 but eventually we can reach as far as 4450/55. FTSE we have a buying opportunity at 7170/50 with stops below 7135. A break lower targets 7100/7090, perhaps as far as 7040/30. Longs at 7170/50 target 7200 then first resistance at 7240/60 for some profit taking. If we continue higher look for 7300/10 this week. Emini S&P December new all time high exactly at the 4735/40 target in the bull trend, but severely overbought conditions finally kicked in with a sudden collapse to the 4670/68 target. This leaves a bearish engulfing candle, which is a very short term negative signal. We do have severely negative divergence on the daily chart so there is a risk of a further correction but I think there are too many retail traders betting on a crash for it to happen just yet. Nasdaq December hit the next target of 16640/660 next target then a new all time high at 16767. However prices then crashed leaving a huge bearish engulfing candle, which is a very short term negative signal. Emini Dow Jones December shorts at first resistance at 35850/950 worked perfectly with a high for the day here, followed by a retest of last week's low at 35490. Update daily at 07:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Emini S&P first support at 4670/68 but a break below 4660 targets 4640 then the best support at 4630/20. Try longs with stops below 4610. Very minor resistance at 4700/10 but above here retargets 4720/23 & 4735/40 then 4750. Nasdaq December collapsed through first support at 16450/400 to target 16300/270 then best support for today at 16230/200. Try longs with stops below 16150. A break lower however sees 16200/230 working as resistance to target 16100 & 16030/010 before a buying opportunity at 15900/850. Try longs with stops below 15800. First resistance at 16400/450. Shorts need stops above 16500. A break higher targets 16550/600 before a retest of the all time high at 16630/767. Emini Dow Jones December strong support at 35450/350. A break lower however targets 35100/35000. Watch for a bounce from here on the first test. However a break lower meets a buying opportunity at 34800/750, with stops below 34650. First resistance at 35850/950. A break above 36000 should be a buy signal targeting 36230/250. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.

Bitcoin has suffered from the former institutional love affair with it. On Monday, a significant sell-off in the stock and bond market prevented the first cryptocurrency from returning to the upside. The recent sell-off confirmed a bearish scenario for bitcoin for now. And one should watch closely to see if this situation becomes toxic for the entire cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin fluctuated widely on Monday, and at some point, it managed to recover an initially weak start. But pressure on equities in the US trading session and the ongoing strengthening of the dollar dragged crypto down. From intraday highs, bitcoin lost 6.3% by the end of the day, at one point falling to $55.6K. The bears showed who is in control now, clearly demonstrating that bounce attempts are stumbling into aggressive selling. In such an environment, it should come as no surprise that the cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index moved into "fear" territory, losing 17 points to 33 - its lowest level since October 1st. Perhaps the following line of defence for the bulls could be the $52.0-53.5K area, where the previous extremes and the 61.8% retracement from the September-November rally are concentrated. One can only wonder how ETHUSD continues to hold its critical $4000 level amid such aggressive pressure on BTCUSD. The first cryptocurrency appears to be under pressure from institutional sell-offs, of which there are drastically less in Ether.

Summary:  US President Biden will tap Jay Powell for a second term as Fed Chair and will nominate Lael Brainard to be promoted to Vice Chair of the Fed, a move that sent the USD modestly higher and US yields sharply higher, though some of the reaction may have been on pent-up reaction to prior developments. Elsewhere, the descent in the Turkish lira is turning dire, while the kiwi is weaker ahead of an RBNZ meeting tonight. FX Trading focus: USD follows US yields higher in the wake of Powell getting nod for 2nd term Surprising a sizable minority and perhaps myself to a degree, US President Biden will tap Jay Powell for a second term as Fed Chair, while seeking to promote Lael Brainard from her current position to Vice Chair. The most prominent reason given for not going with Brainard is that her confirmation process may have proven contentious, something Biden wanted to avoid, and given extensive Democratic party support for Powell, the progressive wing aside, it was always the “easy option”. Brainard will still have to go through a confirmation process with the Senate. More interesting is the Brainard was not nominated to Vice Chair in the banking supervision and regulation role that the soon-gone Quarles occupied, a role that many envisioned for her. Biden has more nominees to consider for Quarles’ replacement and other empty spots, but continuity appears assured, though a Vice Chair Brainard will carry more weight when she dissents on non-monetary policy issues in the future (she never dissented on FOMC votes but has dissented more than 20 times on board votes linked to loosening regulation on US financial institutions). Other positions at the Fed will need filling as well, including the replacement of Quarles as banking supervisor. The market reaction to the news was fairly straightforward and “as expected” algorithmically, i.e., Brainard was supposed to be the more dovish pick, so Biden going with Powell saw the USD stronger as the market priced in about 10 basis points more in the way of Fed hikes through the end of next year. It’s tough to tell whether some of the reaction was the market simply adjusting to have this important issue “out of the way” allowing traders to price in other recent developments, like hot US data and Fed Vice Chair Clarida’s comments on possibly speeding up the pace of the Fed’s taper of asset purchases at the December FOMC meeting. The next test for whether this USD move can extend will be with tomorrow’s October PCE Inflation print and the FOMC minutes. For USDJPY, as I argue below, an extension higher  likely needs more upside from longer US yields. US President Biden will speak today on the economy and “lowering prices for the American people” which many believe will include a release of crude oil from US strategic reserves. That’s a risky move if it fails. Chart: USDJPYUSDJPY spilled over the 115.00 barrier in the wake of Powell getting the nod for a second term, with  the move now trying to decide whether it can stick. Arguably, the rise in Fed policy expectations don’t mean much if the longer end of the US yield curve remains anchored as it has lately, which continues to suggest that the market sees inflation as transitory and/or that Fed potential on rates will max out around 2.0% and crush the growth and inflation outlook. While 10-year US yields were sharply higher yesterday, they’re still bogged down in the range since the pivot high of 1.70% in October and the cycle high near 1.75% all the way back at the end of March. The logjam needs to break there and send US long yields higher for better fundamental support for a significant break above the 115.00 level in USDJPY. European politics in the spotlight – with Germany dealing with a new Covid ave and the ongoing natural gas and power crunch, it is time for the government coalition to announce itself and begin ruling. An announcement of the “stoplight” coalition could be imminent and we’ll have to watch the awkward combination closely, particularly the LDP Lindner’s attitude toward spending as the traditionally liberal party’s supply side principles are at odds with its Social Democratic and Green coalition partners inclinations, although energy emergencies are not political, but must be dealt with.  Elsewhere, Italian president Mattarella announced he will be stepping down. If, as some believe, an effort is made to replace his mostly ceremonial role with Mario Draghi, elections would have to be held. And the French election season will only heat up from here, where we watch whether Macron can keep the populists Zemmour and Le Pen at bay.  The Euro is getting very cheap – bigger fiscal, an ECB reverse repo facility, and a non-Covid constrained outlook by spring could have EURUSD in a very different place by then. Antipodean action- the Aussie has risen sharply versus the kiwi (NZD) over the last couple of sessions as the news flow for the  Aussie has improved notably, with China’s central bank possibly signaling it is ready to bring stimulus, some of the news flow in the property sector improving, and especially as iron ore prices have jumped sharply, particularly overnight, on all of the above plus anticipation that China will have to increase steel output soon. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand was one of the quickest central banks to turn hawkish over the summer and abandon QE and was only delayed slightly in hiking rates by New Zealand’s first Covid outbreak in many months over the summer. The central bank chief Adrian Orr has made it clear that the bank is on the path or many more rate hikes to come and the market has priced in a policy rate of 1.50% by the April meeting of next year versus the current 0.50%. Most believe that the central bank will only hike 25 bps tonight but a significant minority believe that the bank will hike 50 bps. As important will be the market mood (if risk sentiment is weak on further US yield rises, for example, the impact of any RBNZ move may be muted) and whether guidance is able to meet lofty expectations for further tightening. The NZ 2-year yield has traded flat at elevated levels since late October, while NZDUSD has declined, arguably on the fresh momentum in Fed expectations, so moving the needle may require that the RBNZ deliver a 50 basis point hike and even more hawkish guidance. Turkish lira move getting downright disorderly – Turkish President was out yesterday complimenting the recent Turkish Central Bank chief’s decision to cut rates another 100 basis points and declaring that the Turkish government would concentrate on policies that encourage economic growth. In rather dire language, he drew parallels between the current situation and the struggle to form the modern Turkish state in 1923 in the wake of World War I. As of this writing, USDTRY traded near 12.50 after starting last week near 10.00, a breathtaking move. Much more of this kind of price action, and the risk of hyperinflation will swing into view. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strengthThe most important trend shift was yesterday’s huge dump in precious metals – look at the momentum scores for the last 2- and 5 days. Otherwise, most trends of late are extending with the exception of the badly fading NZD. Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairsThe precious metals in for a rough ride on the USD- and US yield move in the wake of the Fed Chair nomination move yesterday. Elsewhere, getting some hefty trend readings in USD/SEK and UDS/NOK, which remain high beta to Euro weakness. Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1445 – US Nov. Flash Markit Manufacturing and Services PMI 1500 – UK BoE Governor Bailey at House of Lords 1500 – US Nov. Richmond Fed Manufacturing 1730 – ECB's Makhlouf to speak 1800 – Canada Bank of Canada’s Beaudry to speak 2130 – API’s Weekly Petroleum Stock Report 0030 – Japan Nov. Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI 0100 – New Zealand RBNZ Official Cash Rate Announcement

EURUSD struggles to rebound The euro bounced back after PMI readings in the eurozone exceeded expectations. The pair is testing July 2020’s lows around 1.1200. The RSI’s oversold situation on the daily chart may limit the downward pressure for now. We can expect a ‘buying-the-dips’ crowd as price action stabilizes. Sentiment remains fragile though and sellers may fade the next rebound. The bulls will need to lift 1.1360 before a reversal could take shape. Failing that, a bearish breakout would trigger a new round of sell-off towards 1.1100. NZDUSD lacks support The New Zealand dollar softened after the RBNZ met market expectations and raised its cash rate by 25bps. The downward pressure has increased after 0.6980 failed to contain the sell-off. The pair has given up all gains from the October rally, suggesting a lack of interest in bidding up the kiwi. An oversold RSI caused a rebound as short-term traders took profit and the bears were swift in selling into strength. The directional bias remains bearish unless 0.7010 is cleared. The September low at 0.6860 is the next support. UKOIL bounces back Brent crude recovers on speculation that OPEC+ may lower production to counter a release of strategic reserves. A break below 79.30 has shaken out the weak hands. The price has met buying interest over the daily demand zone around 77.70, which coincides with last July’s peak. A surge above 82.00 puts the bears on the defensive. Short-covering would exacerbate short-term volatility. An overbought RSI may cause a brief pullback. Then 85.50 is a key hurdle before the uptrend could resume.

Bitcoin has lost 2.5% on Wednesday morning, returning to $56.3K. It seems that after a lull of a day-long, sellers’ pressure on the first cryptocurrency has continued. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market manages to remain positive, adding 0.3% in capitalisation over the past 24 hours. A little over a month ago, Bitcoin’s share of total crypto market capitalisation trended downwards. From a peak of 49.2% on October 19th, its share has fallen to 41.7%. Optimistic market participants point to impressive demand for altcoins, which is shaping the trend. On the other hand, pessimists point out that without the market’s flagship Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies are more likely to reverse sooner rather than later, recalling the situation in late 2017 and early 2018. Behind the pressure on bitcoin is a reduction in risk traction in traditional finance, while retail investors continue to look to cryptocurrencies for insurance against devaluation and speculative/investment potential. In addition, the way retail investors participate in cryptocurrencies has changed over the past five years since the previous cycle. Cryptocurrency ICO and trading have migrated to crypto exchanges, minimising some of the fraud risks of cryptocurrency creators. However, the investment risks have not gone anywhere. Of course, Bitcoin’s steady downward trend is eating away at crypto enthusiasts’ optimism. Still, a smooth pullback like this acts as an incentive for the market to look for new names, leaving Bitcoin to conservative finance. The latter has only begun to regularly allocate a share of their portfolio to crypto this year, filling it predominantly with Bitcoin. At the same time, the leading edge of investors already views the first cryptocurrency as too conservative and boring.

Dax 40 December longs at 16080/060 stopped below 16040 for a sell signal targeting 1a buying opportunity at 15960/930. However unfortunately we unexpectedly ran as far as 15860 before the bounce. EuroStoxx 50 December we wrote: just completed a head & shoulders reversal pattern for a sell signal initially targeting 4310/00 then 4270/60 (a low for the day here), perhaps as far as strong support at 4240/30. FTSE 100 December shorts at first resistance at 7240/60 worked a few times for 50 tick scalping opportunities before we eventually broke higher, so now this is today's support. Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis. Dax my buying opportunity at 15960/930 was clearly too high - apologies - I will revise to 15870/840. Try longs with stops below 15800. Very strong support at 15750/700. Longs need stops below 15650. A break lower meets the best support for this week at 15575/525. Strong resistance at 16050/100. Shorts need stops above 16150. A break higher keeps bulls in control for today targeting 16260/280. A break above 16290 should target 16350/390. EuroStoxx shorts work on the slide to 4270/60. Holding first resistance at 4300/10 risks a retest of 4270/60 with a fall as far as strong support at 4240/30 possible before the end of the week. Resistance at 4300/10. Second resistance at 4330/40 but above here allows a recovery to 4375/80 before a retest of 4400/10. Anyone want to bet on a double top sell signal here? A break above 4410 however targets 4418/20 but eventually we can reach as far as 4450/55. FTSE holding what is now first support at 7260/40 targets 7300/10, perhaps as far as 7335/40 before a retest of 7380/90. Minor support at 7260/40 then we have a buying opportunity at 7170/50 with stops below 7135. A break lower targets 7100/7090, perhaps as far as 7040/30. Emini S&P December longs at first support at 4670/68 unexpectedly stopped below 4660 before a bounce from 4650. Bulls remain in control with no sell signal. (Although the bearish engulfing candle is likely to signal sideways trend so ease severely overbought conditions). Nasdaq December lower after a huge bearish engulfing candle, which is a very short term negative signal. Shorts at first resistance at 16400/450 worked perfectly, with a high for the day here. However we were buying at 16230/200, with stops below 16150...a low for the day at 16119 so unfortunately my stop was too tight with a recovery now as far as 16350. Emini Dow Jones December shorts at first resistance at 35850/950 worked perfectly with a high for the day here, followed by buying in to longs at strong support at 35450/350 & a low for the day here. Perfect calls!! Update daily at 07:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Emini S&P I am going to stick with first support at 4670/68 but a break below 4660 targets 4640 then the better support at 4630/20. Try longs with stops below 4615. The best support at 4600/4395 this week - stop below 4385. Very minor resistance at 4700/10 but above here retargets 4720/23 & 4735/40 then 4750. Nasdaq December best support for today at 16230/180. Try longs with stops below 16100! Hopefully that gives us enough room. A break lower however sees 16180/230 working as resistance to target 16030/010 before a buying opportunity at 15900/850. Try longs with stops below 15750. First resistance again at 16400/450. Shorts need stops above 16500. A break higher targets 16550/600 before a retest of the all time high at 16630/767. Emini Dow Jones December longs at at 35450/350 worked perfectly on the bounce to 35790, just below first resistance at 35850/950. A break above 36000 should be a buy signal targeting 36230/250. Strong support again at 35450/350. A break lower however targets 35100/35000. Watch for a bounce from here on the first test. However a break lower meets a buying opportunity at 34800/750, with stops below 34650. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.

November 23, 2021 By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on November 16th 2021. This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Top 5 Most Bullish and Top 5 Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market. To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table) Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes: Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels. These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.   Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions: Brent Oil The Brent Oil speculator trader’s futures position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Brent speculator level is currently at a 98 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator position totaled -12,900 net contracts this week which was a change by -1,049 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 45,201 contracts compared to the total spec short position of 58,101 contracts. Free Reports: Top 5 Companies Added to Our Stock Watch List this Quarter - Here are the Stock Symbols that stood out so far in the fourth quarter of 2021. Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.   Coffee Futures The Coffee Futures speculator trader’s futures position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Coffee speculator level is now at a 97 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator position was 66,081 net contracts this week, a change by 5,261 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 79,550 contracts versus the total speculator short position of 13,469 contracts. New Zealand Dollar The New Zealand Dollar speculator trader’s futures position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The NZD speculator level resides at a 95 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator position was 13,965 net contracts this week which marked a change by 1,083 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 26,388 contracts versus the total speculator short position of 12,423 contracts. 2-Year Bond The 2-Year Bond speculator trader’s futures position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The 2-Year speculator level is at a 91 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator position was -5,445 net contracts this week and changed by 11,292 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 345,245 contracts against the total spec short position of 350,690 contracts. US Treasury Bond The US Treasury Bond speculator trader’s futures position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Long T-Bond speculator level sits at a 88 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator position was -16,368 net contracts this week which was a move of 11,704 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 144,973 contracts in comparison to the total speculator short position of 161,341 contracts. This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions: Mexican Peso The Mexican Peso speculator trader’s futures position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The MXN speculator level is at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator position was -47,655 net contracts this week, a weekly change of 752 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 69,984 contracts versus the total spec short position of 117,639 contracts. Palladium The Palladium speculator trader’s futures position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Palladium speculator level is at a 7 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator position was -2,038 net contracts this week which was a change by 916 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 3,108 contracts compared to the total speculator short position of 5,146 contracts. Japanese Yen The Japanese Yen speculator trader’s futures position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The JPY speculator level resides at a 10 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator position was -93,126 net contracts this week saw movement by 12,225 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 24,635 contracts against the total spec short position of 117,761 contracts. Nikkei 225 Yen The Nikkei 225 Yen (Japanese stock market) speculator trader’s futures position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Nikkei 225 Yen speculator level is at a 11 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator position was -4,195 net contracts this week which was a change by -3,892 contracts on the week. The speculator long position was a total of 9,075 contracts versus the total speculator short position of 13,270 contracts. 5-Year Bond Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator trader’s futures position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year speculator level is at a 20 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator position was -344,595 net contracts this week and changed by 62,890 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 300,750 contracts compared to the total spec short position of 645,345 contracts. Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Summary:  The US dollar remains firm after the news of Fed Chair Powell getting the nod for a second term on Monday, but a more aggressive extension of its recent strength is avoided as US yield rises were tempered yesterday. Elsewhere, a less hawkish than expected RBNZ saw the kiwi sharply weaker as the market removed a chunky bit of forward rate hike expectation on the latest guidance. FX Trading focus: USD follows US yields higher in the wake of Powell getting nod for 2nd term The US dollar strengthening in the wake of President Biden’s announcement that he would tap Jay Powell for a second term as Fed Chair extended modestly yesterday and into this morning, somewhat tempered by a strong US 7-year treasury auction taking the steam out rises in yields yesterday – with the 7-year benchmark actually notching new highs for the cycle before retreating in the wake of the auction. The more widely tracked 10-year US treasury yield benchmark is still rangebound below the October pivot high of 1.7% and the post-pandemic outbreak high of 1.75%  from the end of March. This has kept USDJPY from extending notably above the sticky 115.00 area of the moment. Elsewhere, the euro remains relatively weak despite ECB Vice President de Guindos out speaking and hinting some concern on inflation rises: “the ECB is continuously pointingout that the inflation rebound is of a transitory nature....However, we have also seen how in recent months these supply factors are becoming more structural, more permanent.” But just this morning we also have the ECB’s Holzmann out saying that inflation is likely to slow from next year. Later today we will get the expected German government coalition deal (SPD’s Scholz as Chancellor with Green’s Baerbock reportedly set for the foreign minister post and importantly, the liberal LDP’s Lindner set to lead the finance ministry), with a press conference set for 3 p.m. EURJPY and EURUSD are heavy this morning and note that  the 128.00 level in EURJPY is a well-defined range low, while EURUSD doesn’t have notable  support until well below 1.1200 and arguably not until psychological levels like 1.10. With covid spiking and a galloping energy crisis, I don’t envy the new German leadership. Overnight, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand waxed a bit more cautious than was expected by the market, and not only by raising the rates 25 basis points rather than the 50 basis points that a minority were expecting to see. In the central bank’s new statement, the bank strikes a more cautious tone: yes, clearly further rate hikes are set for coming meetings, but the bank is clearly in a wait and see mode, given the tightening of financial conditions already in the bag and that which the market has already priced in: “the Committee expressed uncertainty about the resilience of consumer spending and business investment....(and) also noted that increases in interest rates to householdsandbusinesses had already tightened monetary conditions. High levels of household debt, and a large share of fixed-rate mortgages re-pricing in coming months, could increase the sensitivity of consumer spending to these interest rate increases.” Later today, we have a stack of US data releases crammed into today because of the Thanksgiving holiday tomorrow (and for most, Friday as well). The most important of these is the October PCE Infation data print. Not expecting much from the FOMC minutes later as all eyes are on whether we are set for an acceleration of the QE taper at the December FOMC meeting, with some arguing that Powell and company have more room to move and administer a bit more hawkish message, if they so desire, as the nomination news is out of the way and this reduces hyper-sensitivity to bringing any message that could risk cratering market sentiment. Chart: AUDNZDThe 2-year yield spread between Australia and New Zealand has risen sharply in recent days and especially overnight, where the more cautious than expected tones from the RBNZ inspired a 14 basis point drop in 2-year NZ yields. The price action in AUDNZD was sympathetic with the rally back toward local resistance near 1.0450, though the rally needs to find legs for a move up to 1.0600 at least to indicate we may have put a structural low in with a double bottom here. A brighter relative outlook for  Australia could be in the cards if China is set to stimulate and raise steel output, the anticipation of which has already sharply lifted iron ore prices this week, a key indicator for the Aussie. No notable expectations for the Riksbank tomorrow – as the central bank is expected to wind down its balance sheet expansion next year, while the policy forecast is thought to be in play (perhaps a late 2024 lift-off built into expectations, though the market is ahead of that as 2-year Swedish swap rates have risen close to 30 basis in recent weeks. This is the area where the Riksbank can surprise in either direction relative to expectations). The EURSEK rally has now reversed the entirety of the prior sell-off leg and double underlines the very weak sentiment on Europe, which remains “non-existential” in nature, i.e., so far the market is keeping this about policy divergence and dark clouds over the economic outlook, not about the longer term viability of the EMU, etc…, which in the past 2010-12 crisis inspired SEK upside as a safe haven. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strengthA bit of a relative pick-up in petro-currencies in the wake of yesterday’s oil rally, as the market bought the fact of US President Biden announcing a release of barrels from strategic reserves. Elsewhere, the NZD is losing relative altitude and the USD and especially CNH reign supreme. Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.Here, note AUDNZD flipping back to positive - a move that would be “confirmed” by a close solidly above 1.0450. Also note NOKSEK trying to flip positive on the latest oil rally, although beware the Riksbank meeting up tomorrow there. .Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1330 – US Weekly Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims 1330 – US Oct. Advance Goods Trade Balance 1330 – US Q3 GDP Revision 1330 – US Oct. Durable Goods Orders 1430 – UK BoE’s Tenreyro to speak 1500 – US Oct. PCE Inflation 1500 – US Final University of Michigan Sentiment Survey 1500 – US Oct. New Home Sales 1900 – US FOMC Meeting Minutes

S&P 500 recovered from session lows, and is likely to keep chopping around in a tight range today. Tech found solid footing in spite of sharply rising yields, which value (finally) embraced with open arms. The riskier end of credit markets doesn‘t yet reflect the stabilization in stocks, which is a first swallow. Make no mistake though, the fresh Fed hawkish talking games are a formidable headwind, and animal spirits aren‘t there no matter how well financials or energy perform. These are though clearly positive signs, which I would like to see confirmed by quite an upswing in smallcaps. All in all, this is still the time to be cautiously optimistic, and not yet heading for the bunker – that time would probably come after the winter Olympics (isn‘t it nice how that rhymes with the post 2008 summer ones‘ price action too?). Market reaction to today‘s preliminary GDP data will likely be a non-event, and we‘ll still probably make fresh ATHs before stocks enter more turbulent times. In spite of the cheap Fed talk still packing quite some punch, let‘s keep focused on the big picture and my doubts as to the Fed‘s ability to carry out the taper, let alone (proactive? No, very much behind the curve) rate raising plans – as said the prior Monday or yesterday: (…) the Fed is still printing a huge amount of money on a monthly basis, and it remains questionable how far in tapering plans execution they would actually get – I see the risks to the real economy coupled with persistently high inflation as rising since the 2Q 2022 (if not since Mar already, but most pronounced in 2H 2022. (…) True, the bullish argument for the dollar stepped to the fore as yields differential between the U.S. and the rest of the world got more positive, and at the same time, various yield spreads keep compressing. That‘s a reflection of less favorable incoming economic data. Just as much as Friday‘s reaction was about corona economic impact projections, yesterday‘s one was about monetary policy anticipation. Inflation expectations though barely budged – the decline doesn‘t count as trend reversal. CPI isn‘t done rising, and the more forward looking incoming data (e.g. producer prices) would confirm there is more to come. All in all, it looks like precious metals (and to a smaller degree commodities), are giving Powell benefit of the doubt, which I view to be leading to disappointment over the coming months. Should Powell heed the markets‘ will, the real economy would weaken dramatically, forcing him to make a sharp dovish turn – and he would, faster than he flipped since getting challenged in Dec 2018. Inflation expectation indeed held up during the day, marking modest, lingering doubts about Fed‘s ability to execute. Its credibility isn‘t lost, but would be put to a fresh test over the nearest weeks and months. The real economy can still take it, and not roll over – we are in the very early tapering stage so far still. Commodities are pointing the way ahead, and it‘s time for precious metals to shake off the inordinately high levels of fear, which mark capitulation more than anything else. Just when I was writing that it‘s as if the PMs bulls didn‘t trust the latest rally... Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bulls stepped in, the volume is semicredible. I like the lower knot, and would look for increasing market breadth to confirm the short-term reversal. It‘s my view we haven‘t made a major top on Monday. Credit Markets It‘s too early to call a budding reversal in credit markets – HYG needs to pull its weight better. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals haven‘t yet regained footing, but that moment is quickly approaching – in spite of the above bleak chart. Compare to the Jun period – Fed‘s talk was more powerful then. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls have made a good move, and more strength did indeed follow. The bottom is in, and many countries tapping their strategic reserves, proved an infallible signal. I look for consolidation followed by further strength next. Copper Copper springboard is getting almost complete, and I think the drying up volume would be resolved with an upswing. The daily indicators are positioned as favorably as the CRB Index is. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are still correcting, and the upcoming Bitcoin move would decide the direction over the next few weeks. The takeaway from cryptos hesitation is that real assets can‘t expect overly smooth sailing yet. Summary S&P 500 bulls would ideally look to value outperforming tech on the upside, confirmed by HYG at least stopping plunging. A brief yields reprieve would come once the Fed steps away from the spotlight, which is another part of the bullish sentiment returning precondition set. Overall, the very modest S&P 500 moves keep favoring the bulls within the larger topping process. Keep in mind that the Fed isn‘t yet in a position to choke off the real economy through slamming on the breaks, it‘s just the forward guidance mind games for now. We are waiting for the bit more seriously than last time meant, but still a bluff, getting questioned again, as inflation expectations haven‘t broken down, and are facilitating the coming PMs and commodities runs. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Equities 2021-11-24 13:00 6 minutes to read Summary:  The last two trading days US technology stocks have been impacted by rising interest rates and rising market expectations of Fed rate hikes next year. US technology stocks have interest rate sensitivity due to their high equity valuation, but several other key equity markets such as Netherlands, New Zealand, Singapore, Switzerland, and Denmark are also having high equity valuation and thus high duration. These equity markets would likely underperform next year if the interest rates move considerably higher. In yesterday’s equity note, we showed how Nasdaq 100 and STOXX 600 are the yin and yang of interest rate sensitivity based on equity market reaction this year with Nasdaq 100 underperforming significantly when the US 10-year yield has a large increase. But outside these two major equity indices, investors felt what higher interest rates can do to sentiment. Danish equities were down 3% in its worst day since March 2020 during the panic days of the pandemic and Dutch equities were down 3.1%. What do these two markets have in common? They both have equity valuations that are well above many other markets, which simplistically can be translated into higher duration which means that these equity markets are more sensitive to big changes in interest rates. Why is that? Because high equity valuation implies that a larger part of the present value comes from the terminal value on cash flows (meaning way into the future) and this value is more sensitive to the discount rate. Dutch equities are the most expensive of 26 equity markets in the developed and emerging markets with a 12-month forward EV/EBITDA of 23.3x with Denmark and Switzerland less frothy at 14.3x and 14.7x respectively. If we exclude Australia, India, New Zealand and Singapore from yesterday’s market reaction because of the time delay to the US session then we do observe that equity markets with high equity valuations were hit harder yesterday confirming that we did observe a repricing related to a larger move in interest rates. It is all related to the value vs growth trade which is essentially STOXX 600 vs Nasdaq 100, but which can also be expressed between individual equity indices such as Norway vs Denmark. The main point of yesterday’s equity note and today’s observations is that we have a group of equity markets such as Netherlands, New Zealand, Singapore, USA, Switzerland, and Denmark that are in the high equity valuation group. These markets have higher interest rate sensitivity and would likely underperform in a rising interest rate environment and exacerbated if flows also favour value over growth. In our view the equity market is telling investors that tail risks are rising for high duration equities and in order to mitigate this investors should begin balancing their portfolios better between high valued growth stocks and value stocks such as energy, financials, and mining companies. Appendix: 5-year charts of OMXC25 (Danish equities) and AEX (Dutch equities)

The market is struggling with further downward pressure, triggered by a stronger US dollar, and threats that the US and others will start using their strategic oil reserves. Trade Plan Review Indeed, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said on Saturday (Nov 20th) that his government was considering drawing on oil reserves in response to rising crude prices. Since Japan sources most of its oil from the Middle East, the recent surge in prices and the decline of the yen have pushed up import cost for the Japanese archipelago. As a reminder, last week I anticipated a lower dip that would take place onto the $75.25-76.22 yellow band. The recommended objective would be the $79.37 and 82.24 levels. My suggested stop would be located on the $74.42 level (below both the previous swing low from 7-October and the previous high-volume node and volume point of control (VPOC) from September). Alternatively, you could also eventually use an Average True Range (ATR) ratio to determine a different level that may suit you better. For now, that dip did happen Friday around that support area (likely to become a demand zone) where we might see some ongoing accumulation for the forthcoming hours. Now, we can observe a doji formation (candlestick figure), and more precisely a long-legged doji appearing on the daily chart, which is generally synonymous with indecision. WTI Crude Oil (CLF22) Futures (January contract, daily chart) To visualize how the price action is currently developing, let’s zoom into the 4H chart, which illustrates a much clearer downtrend: WTI Crude Oil (CLF22) Futures (January contract, 4H chart) So, as you can see, even on that lower timeframe we have a doji pattern, where the bulls are trying to take over the bears to push the market towards higher levels. Will the current 4H downtrend extend lower, or will the longer-term (daily) uptrend resume its rally? Let’s see where this is going to end up. Here is the latest chart from today (Nov 24th): Figure 1 - WTI Crude Oil (CLF22) Futures (January contract, monthly chart) By the way, my trade target for WTI Crude Oil positions has almost been reached. Please check out more details on my latest oil targets in Monday’s article. That’s all for today, folks. Happy trading! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

The S&P 500 continues to fluctuate along the 4,700 level. So is this a topping pattern or just a flat correction before another leg up? The S&P 500 index extended its Monday’s decline yesterday, as it fell to the daily low of 4,652.66. But it closed 0.17% higher following an intraday rebound. The market rebounded to the 4,700 level again. The broad stock market keeps trading within an over two-week-long consolidation. For now, it looks like a flat correction within an uptrend. However, it may also be a topping pattern before some more meaningful downward reversal. The nearest important support level remains at 4,630-4,650 and the next support level is at 4,600. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,700-4,750. The S&P 500 continues to trade along the 4,700 level, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq Broke Below the Trend Line Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index reached the new record high on Monday, led by the megacap tech stock rallies, but it reversed its intraday course and yesterday it fell below the 16,200 level. The index broke below its short-term upward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart: Apple and Microsoft – a Potential Reversal Let’s take a look at the two biggest stocks in the S&P 500 index, AAPL and MSFT. Apple accelerated its uptrend on Monday and Microsoft slightly extended its recent advance. Both reached the record highs before reversing lower. Yesterday they were mixed, and today we may see some more short-term uncertainty. Conclusion The S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.4% lower this morning following a series of economic data releases. The market will wait for some more economic data releases - the Core PCE Price Index, Personal Income/ Personal Spending at 10:00 a.m., and the FOMC Meeting Minutes at 2:00 p.m. We may see a short-term consolidation ahead of tomorrow’s holiday break and the long holiday weekend. So overall, the broad stock market may be trading within a topping pattern. However there have been no confirmed negative signals so far. Nevertheless, we decided to open a speculative short position yesterday, and we are expecting a 5% correction from the current levels. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 backed from the new record high on Monday and it looked like a short-term or medium-term topping pattern. A speculative short position is justified from the risk/reward perspective. We are expecting a 5% correction from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

The battle has begun. Get ready and experience the first episode of ‘The Trade Off’. This weekly series features Blake Morrow (ForexAnalytix) and our very own Chris Weston, as they engage in an energetic debate of the financial markets - what’s hot, what’s not and always breaking down the trade. This weekly show will be global, timely and relevant. Keen to learn more about trading and the charts Blake and Westy are talking about? Tune into our charting techniques webinar next week: https://youtu.be/73bx8OtZqJs The Trade Off is powered by Pepperstone. Pepperstone is an online FX/CFD broker providing traders across the globe with cutting-edge technology to trade the world’s markets. We’re driven to provide traders with low-cost pricing across all instruments including FX and CFDs (crypto, commodities, indices).

Dax 40 December longs at very strong support at 15750/700 worked perfectly. EuroStoxx 50 December we wrote: just completed a head & shoulders reversal pattern for a sell signal initially targeting 4310/00 then 4270/60 (a low for the day here), perhaps as far as strong support at 4240/30. That call could not have been more accurate with a low for the day at 4240/30. A potential profit of up to 100 ticks. FTSE 100 December broke minor support at 7260/40 but held 18 ticks above the buying opportunity at 7170/50 Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis. Dax longs at strong support at 15750/700 worked perfectly on the bounce with resistance at 15950/16000 for some profit taking. Strong resistance at 16050/100. Shorts need stops above 16150. A break higher keeps bulls in control for today targeting 16260/280. A break above 16290 should target 16350/390. Minor support at 15880/860. Very strong support at 15750/700. Longs need stops below 15650. A break lower meets the best support for this week at 15575/525. EuroStoxx shorts work on the slide to strong support at 4240/30 with a low for the day here so longs also worked perfectly on the bounce to 4300/10. This is the only resistance of the day. Shorts need stops above 4320. A break higher targets 4340/50. Holding resistance at 4300/10 targets 4280/70 before a retest of strong support at 4240/30. Longs need stops below 4220. A break lower is a sell signal. FTSE shot higher to the 7300/10 target as I write this morning, perhaps as far as 7335/40 later on today, before a retest of 7380/90. Minor support again at 7260/40 before a buying opportunity at 7170/50 with stops below 7135. A break lower targets 7100/7090, perhaps as far as 7040/30. Emini S&P December bearish engulfing candle is likely to signal sideways trend so ease severely overbought conditions, although my first support at 4670/68 was not accurate because we over ran again to 4656. Nasdaq December longs at best support for the day at 16230/180 worked as we held above 16100 for a bounce to first resistance again at 16400/450. Emini Dow Jones December shorts at first resistance at 35850/950 worked perfectly with a high for the day here, followed by buying in to longs at strong support at 35450/350 & a low for the day here. Perfect calls!! Update daily at 07:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Emini S&P seeing a recovery as expected reaching very minor resistance at 4700/10 but above here retargets 4720/23 & 4735/40 then 4750. I am still expecting the downside to be limited with first support at 4670/60 . Longs need stops below 4650. Next target & better support at 4630/20. Try longs with stops below 4615. The best support at 4600/4395 this week - stop below 4385. Nasdaq December up to 200 ticks profit on our longs as we hit first resistance again at 16400/450. Shorts need stops above 16500. A break higher targets 16550/600 before a retest of the all time high at 16630/767. Best support for today at 16200/160. Try longs with stops below 16100! Hopefully that gives us enough room. A break lower however sees 16180/230 working as resistance to target 16030/010 before a buying opportunity at 15900/850. Try longs with stops below 15750. Emini Dow Jones December longs at at 35450/350 worked perfectly on the bounce to first resistance at 35850/950 for an easy 400 tick profit. A break above 36000 should be a buy signal targeting 36230/250. Minor support at 35750/700 but below here targets 35600. Strong support again at 35450/350. A break lower however targets 35100/35000. Watch for a bounce from here on the first test. However a break lower meets a buying opportunity at 34800/750, with stops below 34650. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.

Monthly chart, Silver in US-Dollar, favorable timing: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 26th, 2021. Timing for a physical acquisition is in alignment as well. The monthly chart shows a high likelihood for November’s candle closing as an inverted hammer. Consequently, it provides for silver prices approaching the low end of the last 17-month sideways range near US$22. The white line assumes a potential price projection for 2022. Even if we are wrong with our assessment, a gift of silver for a long-term horizon is highly likely to appreciate from momentary levels to a much higher price target. Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, silver on Christmas gift list: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 26th, 2021. The value of a gift like this doesn’t stop there. Numismatics provides for children and teenagers a way to study history. Beautiful coins and bars inspire us to hold on to value for future times and encourage saving. The weekly silver chart shows in a bit more detail possible price expansion from a time perspective. This would be our most conservative picture of the future. The green bordered box is an entry zone for a potential reversal to the upside. With a high likelihood of an interest rate change by the Federal Reserve Bank in the second quarter of 2022, the inner yellow curve supersedes in probability for the expected time frame for a price increase. Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart, physical only, spot to risky: Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of November 26th, 2021. If you look at the daily chart above, you will find that we have seen a swift downward move in the past. Under our beauty principle, there is a good likelihood that this might occur again. If so, reaction times are much longer with a physical purchase than with spot price trading. Meaning there is no need to precision trade (precision purchase) physical silver, but be not spooked if a swift, extended decline might happen. Consequently, we are pointing this purchase out for physical acquisition only but do not advise taking a spot price position based on the risk.   Phase 1 drilling program at Guigui discovered not only the largest intrusive ever found in the district, but it’s the first mineralized skarn ever seen in Guigui! Silver on Christmas gift list: In this bargain hunting season around Black Friday, we find it is especially sensible to refocus and ask different questions. The human psyche is prone to give in to instant gratification, especially after the hard time the last two years provided. But with this much at stake for 2022, possibly being a year that sets a mark in history, it might be more prudent to look for wealth preservation in a longer time horizon to invest one’s fiat currencies rather than short-lived pleasures. After all, a careful look for generations to come, your children, is a view most valuable in general. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|November 26th, 2021|Tags: Crack-Up-Boom, Gold, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

Equities 2021-11-26 11:20 7 minutes to read Summary:  Equities markets are selling off due to new virus strain due to this strain being much more infectious than the current dominant variants, but more importantly uncertainty over how effective the vaccines will be on this new strain. This uncertainty lifts the probability of more lockdowns and travel restrictions and as a result traders selling off physical companies in energy, mining, financials and consumer discretionary against health care, utilities, and technology stocks. While overshadowed of today's risk-off event there have been several key news out on Chinese equities related to Didi Global, Evergrande, and Meituan which we cover in today's equity update. Equities react to increased likelihood of new lockdowns Financials markets are in upheaval over a new Covid virus strain (called the Nu variant) has been identified in South Africa, which seems to be more infectious than the current dominant strains. With Europe and some northern parts of the US in a stretched situation to an already high number of new cases and hospitalizations, this new virus strain comes at the worst possible time. The good thing is that the more infectious the virus get the less likely it is to also get more virulent, but it can still put pressure on hospitals. Equities are reacting negatively because it is unknown at this point to what degree the vaccines will be effective against the new strain, and thus it increases risk of new lockdowns which leads to an economic hit. Another good thing is that South Africa has been open and transparent about the virus strain which means that countries can react faster and because societies are better prepared the impact overall on the economy such be less than initially during the pandemic. The online vs offline companies trade is expressed today Due to the rising probability of lockdowns, which was already in play before the news of the new virus strain, traders and investors are again pulling out the pandemic playbook on equities. The chart below shows Nasdaq 100 futures vs Stoxx 50 futures over the past 10 trading days which expresses the online/technology vs offline/physical companies. The idea is that online companies can better weather new lockdowns where as companies operating in the physical world obviously are more impacted by travel restrictions and potential lockdowns. Smaller companies are also more vulnerable which is why Russell 2000 futures and the global index on small cap companies are under pressure today. Liquidity is thin today going into the weekend and being on the backside of Thanksgiving in the US (trading in US equities ends today at 1300 EST) and thus the initial reaction in equities was aggressive, whereas a couple of hours into trading European equity futures have bounced back somewhat. Not surprisingly the worst performing sectors today in Europe are energy (lower demand for oil), financials (potential hit to loan books), industrials (more supply constraints and lower demand), consumer discretionary (lower demand for cars and other large consumer items), where as health care, utilities, and technology companies are less off as these sectors are necessities and can weather lockdowns better. China equities continue to weighed down by bad stories Besides the risk-off trade in equities several key stories have hit Chinese equities over the past 24 hours. The Chinese government has asked Didi Global to delist from NYSE emphasizing once again the hidden volatility in Chinese listed stocks in the US. Our view remains that investors that want exposure to China should do that through mainland and Hong Kong listings. Stocks related to the housing market was impacted negatively today from news that Evergrande’s founder Hui Ka Yan has sold shares worth $344mn which is seen as a negative for the company and the industry’s outlook, as the Chinese government is urging Hui to use his own wealth to bolster the company’s finances. Finally, Meituan has reported Q3 earnings showing revenue growth of 38% as expected but operating margins under pressure leading to widening losses as the technology crackdown and “Common Prosperity” are forcing Meituan to increase operating expenses on social security for its gig workers. Appendix: 5-year chart on Nasdaq 100 and Stoxx 50 futures

Forex 2021-11-26 14:05 5 minutes to read Summary:  The contagion across asset markets triggered by new covid strain concerns has hit FX in the form of classic deleveraging, as euro and yen shorts are squeezed on a reversal of recent US yield rises and safe haven seeking, while the US dollar gets a pass elsewhere because it is still safer than smaller, less liquid currencies, particularly in EM. The timing is terrible for this wave of risk aversion as we have thin trading conditions over the US Thanksgiving holiday.   FX Trading focus: Position squaring hits heavy euro- and yen shorts Risk contagion across the board overnight on the news of a new covid strain in South Africa with significant mutations and signs of overtaking as a percentage of cases in regional outbreaks. There may a sudden “straw that broke the camel’s back” angle to this, given the covid concerns elsewhere, particularly in Europe. The timing is worse than unfortunate, as the liquidity backdrop of particular concern as the news has hit with the US out on holiday yesterday and only open for half a session today, with few likely anticipating until last night or this morning that they would even need to bother showing up for work today. The sense of whiplash has been particularly acute as we have just had a look at US President Biden nominating Powell for a second term and many highlighting the focus on inflation in his acceptance speech for the nomination, with Brainard’s acceptance speech also highlighting inflation as a major concern. This had jolted Fed expectations for next year to new highs for the cycle at the outset of this week, and now just a few days later we get covid mutation concerns that have sent a deleveraging wave across markets. In US treasuries, this has mean a sharp drop along the entire US yield curve, giving the euro and the yen a strong boost, as the euro in particular was headed south and fast on the policy divergence theme of the ECB seen likely to maintain zero rates and even some level of QE out over the horizon while the market had priced in three full Fed rate hikes by the end of next year before this sudden reversal. On the weak side, while the US dollar has fallen within the G3 and is approximately flat against sterling, the smaller currencies are sharply lower against all of the above, and EM generally doubly so. Meanwhile, a chunky new drop in oil prices on the anticipation of widening international travel restrictions and even domestic lockdowns in places is adding to the NOK woes just after that currency was trying to recover versus the single currency last week, sending EURNOK up through its 200-day moving average and above 10.20 at one point today after trading below 9.70 barely over a month ago. Chart: AUDJPYAUDJPY is doing its usual job of capturing a wave of risk aversion as the lurch lower in risk sentiment was reflected here, and the clearly important 200-day moving average gave way with a bang. This is beginning to demolish the longer-term bullish hopes as it is a hold below the 200-day moving average here is a kind of confirmation of the rejection of the next cycle highs above 85.00 that were attempted last month. Theoretically, if the last gasp support of the 61.8% retracement of the local rally wave can avoid falling, there is shred of hope, but that would likely depend on a full reversal of everything we have just seen overnight. As we emphasized in this morning’s Saxo Market Call podcast, it is impossible to know how the virus situation shapes up here until further details emerge, but the market appears poorly positioned here for a more difficult global growth outlook at a time was just on how much the Fed is going to have to course correct and end QE and hike rates because US Q4 GDP is running incredibly hot. And that was in turn driving the predominant focus on relative policy divergences, with especially Europe being singled out for its particularly weak outlook, given the energy crunch and it being at the epicenter of the latest covid wave. If I am to poke around at places where moves are getting a bit overdone here in the short term, the EURSEK squeeze move looks a bit excessive, but that isn’t to say that poor liquidity and the usual market correlations can’t send it squeezing higher still. Yesterday, the Riksbank brought a rate hike into its forward guidance (late 2024) for the first time for the cycle at a time as the market is front running that and even pricing the ECB to achieve lift-off next year. Trading a market move like the one has developed overnight is tricky business as anything can happen and either direction. Concern may deepen and dramatically so that nations will scramble to limit the spread of this new variant until more is known, and we still know little about its virulence. And in the very short-term, a self-propelling position squaring can extend aggressively ahead of the weekend as risk managers force adjustments linked to the blow-up in volatility. Then the gap risk can move in the other direction over the weekend. Impossible to know, only to limit risk and exercise patience and a couple of weeks or more of headline risks before we know the lay of the land better. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strengthAs noted above, the big direction change here is in the euro and the JPY, which have pulled sharply higher in most crosses, with the Swiss franc happy to continue higher as well (suggesting that the USDCHF pair was increasingly important positioning-wise recently?). Elsewhere, SEK downside is beginning to look extreme, and CNH upside likewise if commodity prices continue to crater. Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.Far too early to talk trends when what we have here is a sudden positioning wipeout – but we will have to see how the next few days develop. Most “flips” as of this update are linked to the oil move (NOKSEK, CAD crosses etc.) although note the euro ripping higher against AUD and NZD.

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie --- 628th Edition --- Monte-Carlo --- 27 November 2021 (published each Saturday) --- www.deMeadville.com  Five key points right off the top: â–  Indeed literally at the top: the above Gold Scoreboard displays valuation having crossed above the $4,000/oz. threshold; and yet you can own Gold for a fraction of that at $1,792/oz given yesterday's (Friday's) settle; "Got Gold?" â–  Both wrong -- and moreover shocked -- we were over Biden's handlers writing "Jerome Powell" rather than "Lael Brainard" on the FedHead index card for the President to read aloud this past Monday; a selection 180° anti-correlative with the Administration's endless money 'n climate change modus operandi; â–  The emphasis of last week's piece was for a near-term technical pullback in Gold's price, wherein 'twas stated "...the 1800s ... appear safe..."; rather, this past week's low was 1777, the "Powell" selection being the fundamental impetus justifying that technical condition; â–  Prior to The WHO's (not the band, but the U.N. organization) effort to maintain its raison d'être with Friday's "Oh my! Omicron!" scare, we were prepared to state that "Powell" would push for a FedFunds rate hike in the 26 January Policy Statement; but if this instead is "The Beginning of the End, Part Deux", shall they ever raise again? â–  And "Oh my! Omicron!" in turn is credited as the catalytical scapegoat for the S&P 500's -2.3% loss on Friday, (recall the single-day COVID losses in 2020 were several times that amount); yet still not a FinMedia peep about the S&P's earnings levels simply not being supportive of the Index: our "live" P/E = 49.3x; its lifetime median = 20.4x; (ready for the next means reversion?) Now: but for two trading day's remaining in November's balance, let's go with the following usual month-end graphic, albeit both Monday and Tuesday can well blow us far from Kansas, Toto. Thus with that in mind and seat belts fastened, here are the BEGOS Markets Standings year-to-date. The economically-driven markets dominate the top three podium spots whilst the safe havens remain the also-rans. "Everything's great!" right? Specific to Gold, as above shown -5.7% to this point in 2021, here below we've the weekly bars and parabolic trends, the ongoing blue-dotted Long stance now four weeks in duration. As measured from a year ago, this past week was Gold's third worst performance on both a points and percentage loss basis. A bit of a heartbreaker, that. Even as "Oh my! Omicron!" is wild-card bullish for Gold; yet "Powell" is the more hawkish-to-be FedHead selection (bearish, but not really) for Gold: "You're saying that because rising rates have actually found Gold to rise too, right, mmb?" Spot on there, Squire. Lest we forget, from 2004-2006 the FedFunds rate rose from 1% to 5% and Gold from 380 to 710. Further, to reiterate, Gold by U.S. monetary debasement (wildly bullish) is today worth the Scoreboard-noted 4001. Either way, Gold's year-over-year percentage track has been, on balance, sideways. Which in turn really emphasizes the "Live by the miners, Die by the miners" nature of precious metals-based equities as is starkly made obvious here: For the record from this time a year ago, as positive we've only Franco-Nevada (FNV) +5%, followed in decline by Gold itself -1%, Newmont (NEM) -3%, the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) -5%, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) -6%, Pan American Silver (PAAS) -12%, and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) -19%. (Note to those of you fortunate enough to be scoring at home: the U.S. Money Supply for the same period is +12% versus the supply of Gold just +1% ... Pssst: again, "Got Gold?"). As for our Economic Barometer, the past week's slate of incoming metrics found but one which was negative: October's Durable Orders (itself a volatile series). The balance of the bunch had improvements including Home Sales (both New and Existing), plus Personal Income and Spending. But the "turn a blind eye to it" Q3 Chain Deflator was revised upward: that's the party pooper, further highlighted by the Fed's favourite gauge of inflation -- Core Personal Consumption Expenditures -- doubling its October growth over that for September. "Hey Jay! Raise 'em 26 January anyway?" Here's the Baro along with the wee pullback in the S&P: Next as we go 'round the horn with the BEGOS Markets, their respective rightmost daily bars are indicative of Friday's "Oh my! Omicron!" effect. And note from the safe haven standpoint the net comparable under-performance of the precious metals vis-à-vis the leaps by the Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc. As well, the three year-to-late leaders in the aforeshown BEGOS Markets Standings turned tail toward butt ugly, namely Oil, Copper and the S&P 500. And with all those baby-blue dots of trend consistency on the skids, a Santa Claus rally doesn't at present appear in the bids: As for the 10-day Market Profiles for the precious metals, be it for Gold on the left or Silver on the right, from each one's height, they now hardly look right. Indeed, the pick of "Powell" thus far trumps any Gold-positive fear of "Oh my! Omicron!": And thus Gold for November has gone from stud to dud, the rightmost monthly bar below barely green by a nub. Gold's trying to re-secure The Northern Front remains a Battle Royale: So there it all is. Gold was on a November roll -- up some 95 points (+5.3%) -- just over a week ago, albeit with momentum already perceptively slowing, our last missive showing. Then Monday came Biden's shocking bonking of "Brainard" toward maintaining "Powell" as FedHead, and from the month's high of 1880, Gold post-bonk was swiftly down over 100 points. Even as a safe-haven following Friday's WHO surprise "Oh my! Omicron!" cry, Gold bounced a bit, but failed to hold grip, the question now being: "Does Gold further slip?" Regardless, we answer: "Just buy Gold's dip!" Cheers! ...m... www.deMeadville.com www.deMeadville.com

The gold bulls capitulated on Monday, pushing the price back to the $1800 area. The daily charts clearly show how the momentum of gold’s rise was losing strength in the second half of the month. We saw roughly the exact reversal in May and June when gold’s attempts to break the downtrend collided with a change in Fed rhetoric. Again, as earlier in the year, the reason for the sell-off in gold was heightened expectations that the Fed would be more aggressive in raising interest rates. Markets are now laying a 77% chance of a key rate hike in June 2022, compared with 61% a month ago. For the short-term outlook for gold, the crucial area is near $1790, where the 50- and 200-day moving averages are concentrated. If touching these levels does not bring back demand for gold, we should prepare for a further sharp sell-off in the metals. A sharp decline in gold under these levels and a consolidation below them would risk reversing the bullish breakout of early November. Perhaps the best indicator of gold’s prospects now is once again the performance of the dollar and the government bond market. Further increases in yields and the US currency will undermine interest in precious metals. However, it is worth noting that the dollar looks locally overbought, and rate expectations are emotionally optimistic, forming the potential for at least a local rebound.

Equities 2021-11-29 13:00 10 minutes to read Summary:  In today's equity research note we take a look at the global car industry. Since late 2005 it has been a low growth industry also reflected in the low total return of the industry prior to the pandemic. But during the pandemic and with the high revenue growth rates of pure electric vehicles makers the industry's combined market value across traditional carmakers and pure EV-makers has gone to unprecedented levels reflecting excessive expectations that we do not think can hold. The reason behind this is the acceleration in EV adoption and we provide concrete alternatives to bet on this transition without getting exposure to pure EV-makers with elevated equity valuations. Market value does not add up with structural growth profile This year should have been the year when the global car industry came back from the dismal 2020 impacted by the global pandemic and a 6% rise in global new passenger car registrations could be interpreted as the industry coming back. However, as the chart on car registrations in the US, Europe, and China shows, the global car market has been weakening the past couple of months and most notably in Europe. In fact, the combined new car registrations across the three largest car markets in the world are down 19% from the peak in August 2018. Since December 2015, global new car registrations have only grown by 1.8% annualized with a clear saturation starting in early 2017 and then turning into a longer term decline by late 2018. It seems that the global car market has become saturated and the pandemic exacerbated an already weak industry on the demand side. As demand came back, the car industry faced new issues on supplies of semiconductors. In the early days of the pandemic, car manufacturers cancelled orders on semiconductors as they believed demand to be weak for a long time, but as governments unleashed unprecedented stimulus economies weather the pandemic and with the vaccines approved in late 2020, the economy came roaring into 2021. But car manufacturers buy lower margin semiconductors and as they were late to come back ordering semiconductors, the semiconductor industry had already found willing buyers due to high demand on graphics cars for gaming and crypto, and semiconductors used in datacenters and computers. Car manufacturers were put back in line and have ever since scrambled to get priority causing production to be reduced on lack of semiconductors. The pandemic and climate change awareness also happened to ignite demand for electric vehicles (EVs) and the EV transition may have reached an inflection point where it is beginning to drive postponement of buying a gasoline car. Why buy a technology that is being phased out and why not buy an EV when governments are providing incentives to do so? Despite these structural challenges and low growth profile the MSCI World Automobile Index has exploded in value over the past 18 months driven by a bonanza in EV-makers and excessive expectations best exemplified around the Rivian IPO. From December 2005 to the peak in new car registrations in August 2018, the index gained 5.2% annualized compared to 3.9% annualized gains over the period in new car registrations. This highlights that market value more or less follows volume plus/minus changes in price mix and operating margins. With the recent gain in the global index on car manufacturer the industry’s market value has become completely unanchored to the underlying structural growth rate. The only explanation that can justify this is new car registrations quickly closes the drawdown from August 2018 and that EVs can be manufactured at higher operating margins, but this requires that competitive forces do not force retail prices on new cars down to the old profitability level on gasoline cars. Source: Bloomberg EV bonanza will end in a graveyard The key change in the car industry is the production ramp-up of EVs as consumers are increasingly demanding these new cars. Public markets have been flooded with new car companies producing only EVs and the market is currently putting a higher market value on the 11 largest EV-makers compared to the 11 largest traditional carmakers. As we have written in previous research notes this reflects excessive expectations on EVs that we find difficult to justify given the structural growth profile of the overall car industry. Having said that the outlook for cars over the coming three decades is clearly in our view. ICEs will experience a negative growth profile while EVs will have a steep growth curve over the next 10 years before gradually slowing down. But are pure EV-makers the best play? At current market values, we believe expectations are set above what these companies can deliver and we encourage investors to find other ways to bet on the high growth rates in EVs. One way is to find exposure among semiconductor companies with exposure to cars, lithium miners or battery makers for the batteries to EVs. The list below highlights a few names across this supply chain for EVs. Infineon Technologies (semiconductors) NXP (semiconductors) Renesas (semiconductors) Texas Instruments (semiconductors) STMicroelectronics (semiconductors) Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium (lithium miner) Albemarle (lithium miner) SQM (lithium miner) Livent (lithium miner) Orocobre (lithium miner) Panasonic (battery) QuantumScape (battery) TDK (battery) Gotion High-tech (battery) Varta (battery) Should carmakers spin off their EV units? Given the market value on pure EV-makers the traditional carmakers should in our view consider spinning out their EV units into separate businesses with their own public listing, but maintaining majority shareholder control. The higher market value for a pure EV-business could be used to raise significant amount of capital to accelerate growth in production, but a separate business unit could reduce friction from internal culture and political fights. The recent problems internally at VW show that labour unions and workers in the traditional internal combustion engine divisions will make the transition difficult. Porsche is a good bet on a specific EV spinoff from a traditional carmaker and something that could yield a significant valuation improvement. Porsche is aiming to get 40% of revenue from EVs in 2025. If traditional carmakers are not spinning off their EV units, we believe they will have difficulties keeping up with pure EV-makers.

S&P 500 and pretty much everything apart from Treasuries and safe haven plays down precipitously, with panic hitting oil the hardest. The post Thanksgiving session turned out not so light volume one, but the fear wasn‘t sending every risk-on asset cratering by a comparable amount. What we have seen, is an overreaction to uncertainty (again, we‘re hearing contagion and fatality rate speculations – this time coupled with question mark over vaccine efficiency for this alleged variant), and the real question is the real world effect of this announcement, also as seen in the authorities‘ reactions. Lockdowns or semi-equivalent curbs to economic activity are clearly feared, and the focus remains on the demand side for now, but supply would inevitably suffer as well. Do you believe the Fed would sit idly as the economic data deteriorate? Only if they don‘t extend a helping hand, we are looking at a sharp selloff. Given the political realities, that‘s unlikely to happen – the inflation fighting effect of this fear-based contraction would be balanced out before it gets into a self-reinforcing loop. With the fresh stimulus checks lining up the pocket books, Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit etc., we‘re almost imperceptibly moving closer to some form of universal basic income. Again, unless the governments go the hard lockdown route over scary medical prognostications (doesn‘t seem to be the case now), such initiatives would cushion financial markets‘ selloffs. Looking at Friday‘s price action, PMs retreat shows that all won‘t be immediately well in commodities, where oil looks the most vulnerable to fresh bad news in the short run (while stocks would remain volatile, they would find footing earliest). Demand destruction fears are though overblown, but the dust looks to need more time to settle than it appeared on Friday above $72-$73: (…) New corona variant fears hit the airwaves, and markets are selling off hard. We can look forward for a light volume and volatile session today – S&P 500 downswing will likely be cushioned by the tech, but high beta plays will be very subdued. Commodities are suffering, and especially oil is spooked by looming (how far down the road and in what form, that’s anyone’s guess) economic activity curbs / reopening hits. Precious metals are acting as safe havens today (mainly gold) while the dollar is retreating – and so will yields, at least for the moment. Time for readjustment as the wide stop-loss in oil was hit overnight – it’s my view that the anticipated demand destruction taken against the supply outlook, is overrated. When the (rational / irrational) fears start getting ignored by the markets, we‘re on good track. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 is still far out of the woods, and a good sign of better days approaching would be tech and healthcare sound performance joined by financials and energy clearly on the mend. Earliest though, HYG should turn. Credit Markets It‘s too early to call a budding reversal in credit markets – HYG needs to not merely retrace half of its daily trading decline. Money coming out of hiding in Treasuries, would be a precondition of prior trends returning. They will – they had been merely punctured. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals gave up opening gains, and with the hit to inflation expectations, lost the developing tailwind. It would though come back in an instant once calm minds prevail or fresh stimulus gets sniffed out. Crude Oil Crude oil had a catastrophic day – how far are we along capitulation, remains to be seen. The oil sector didn‘t decline by nearly as much, highlighting the overdone and panicky liquidation in black gold. Copper Copper decline didn‘t happen on nearly as high volume as in oil, making the red metal the likelier candidate for a rebound as the sky isn‘t falling. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum marching up on the weekend, were a positive omen for the above mentioned asset classes. In spite of cryptos still being subdued, the overall mood is one of catious optimism and risk very slowly returning. Summary Friday‘s rout isn‘t a one-off event probably, and S&P 500 would turn higher probably earlier than quite a few commodities. Cynically said, the variant fears let inflation to cool off temporarily, even as CPI clearly hasn‘t topped yet. As demand destruction was all the rage on Friday, supply curbs would get into focus next, helping the CRB Index higher – and that‘s the worst case scenario. Precious metals certainly don‘t look to be on the brink of a massive liquidation – the current selloff can‘t be compared to spring 2020. For now, the price recovery across the board remains the question of policy, of policy errors. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

S&P 500 rebound still ran into selling pressure before the close – the bulls lost momentum however well the government and Fed‘s words were received. Credit markets hold the key – specifically, how corporate bonds and Treasuries perform compared to each other. This would be also reflected in the yield spreads, dollar moves, or cylicals vs. stay-at-home stocks.Today‘s analysis will be shorter than usually, so let‘s dive into the charts to fulfill my title‘s objective (all charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is still far out of the woods, and the bulls have to decidedly repel any selling pressure - a good sign of which would be a close in the 4,670s.Credit MarketsAs encouraging as the HYG upswing is, it‘s too early to call a budding reversal a done deal. LQD to TLT performance is a good start, which however needs to continue. The worst for the bulls would be renewed rush into Treasuries, sending other parts of the bond market relatively down.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals retreated again, but the bullish case is very far from lost. As discussed in the caption, the upswing appears a question of time – gold and silver are ready to turn on soothing language of fresh accomodation.Crude OilCrude oil upswing left a lot to be desired and as I tweeted yesterday, remains the most vulnerable within commodities. The dust clearly hasn‘t settled yet within energy broadly speaking.CopperCopper held up considerably better than many other commodities, and gives the impression of sideways trading followed by a fresh upswing as having the highest probability to happen next.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum marching up today, is a positive omen for gradual and picky return of risk-on trades. The overall mood is still one of catious optimism.SummaryFriday‘s rout hasn‘t been reversed entirely, and markets remain vulnerable to fresh negative headlines. The degree to which current ones (relatively positive ones, it must be said) helped, is a testament of volatility being apt to return at a moment‘s notice. I‘m certainly not looking for the developments to break inflation‘s back – CPI clearly hasn‘t peaked. Precious metals are well positioned to appreciate when faced with any grim news necessitating fresh monetary or fiscal activism.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Commodities 2021-11-30 10:30 Summary:  Futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities, forex and financials up until last Tuesday, November 23. While a lot of water has flowed under the bridge since last Tuesday, it is nevertheless interesting, not least considering the report encapsulated the market reaction to last weeks renomination of Fed chair Powell which helped send both treasury yields and the dollar sharply higher, as well as the oil market reaction to the coordinated SPR release announcement. Finally, it also gives us an idea about the level of positioning ahead of Friday's omicron related sell off Saxo Bank publishes weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial. Link to latest report The below summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities, forex and financials up until last Tuesday, November 23. The report normally released on Friday's was delayed due to last weeks Federal holidays, and while a lot of water has flowed under the bridge, its nevertheless interesting. Not least considering the report encapsulated the market reaction to last weeks renomination of Fed chair Powell which helped send both treasury yields and the dollar sharply higher, as well as the oil market reaction to the coordinated SPR release announcement. Also it gives a good idea about how funds and speculators were positioned ahead of the sharp risk off to the new omicron virus variant. Commodities The commodity sector saw sizable shift out of energy and metals into the agriculture sector where all 13 futures contracts covered in this update saw net buying. During the week the energy sector lost 2.1% while precious metals dropped 4.3% after gold broke below key support at $1830. A 1.5% rise in copper was not enough to convince speculators who cut their net long by 20%. Most noticeable however was the strong buying seen across the agriculture sector, with strong demand and weather worries more than offsetting the headwind caused by the stronger dollar. Energy: Crude oil, both Brent and WTI, were sold ahead of the coordinated SPR release announcement last Tuesday. The combined net long dropped by 14k lots to a one-year low at 514.6k lots. The loss of price momentum during the past few months has, despite an overriding bullish sentiment in the market, been driving the reduction, and following Friday's 10% price collapse these traders have been rewarded for sticking to the signals the market was sending instead of listening to bullish price forecasts. Hedge funds are not "married" to their positions hence their better ability to respond to changes in the technical and/or fundamental outlook.Metals: Having increase bullish gold bets by 65k lots during the previous two weeks, funds were forced to make 45k lots reduction last week in response to the Powell renomination sending gold sharply lower and below support in the $1830-35 area. Speculators have been whipsawed by the price action in recent weeks and it helps to explain why they are in no mood to reenter in size despite renewed support from Covid19 angst. Silver's 6% sell off during the week helped trigger a 17% reduction in the net long to 30k lots while in copper a small price increase was not enough to stem the slide in net length. Following seven weeks of selling, the net length has dropped by 64% to 19.5k lots, a 13-week low. Months of rangebound behaviour has reduced investor focus, and until we see High Grade Copper make an attempt to break its current $4.2 to $4.5 range, the level of positioning is likely to remain muted. Agriculture:  More concerned with other drivers such as weather, strong demand and supply chain disruptions helped trigger across the board buying of all 13 futures contracts split into grains, softs and livestock. The combined long held across these contracts reached a six-month high at 1.13 million lots, representing a nominal value of $43.5 billion. Buying was broad with the top three being corn, sugar and soybeans. Elsewhere the net long in Arabica coffee reached a fresh five-year high at 58k lots and KCB wheat a four-year high at 65.6k lots. UPDATES from today's Market Quick TakeCrude oil (OILUKJAN22 & OILUSJAN21) turned sharply lower in early European trading as the mood across markets soured on renewed concerns about the omicron virus strain. This after Moderna’s head told the Financial Times that existing vaccines will be less effective at tackling omicron and it may take months before variant-specific jabs are available at scale. The news come days before the OPEC+ group of producers meet to discuss production levels for January. Brent crude oil already heading for its biggest monthly loss since March 2020 trades below its 200-day moving average for the first time in a year, a sign that more weakness may lie ahead, thereby raising the prospect for OPEC+ deciding to pause or perhaps even make a temporary production cut. Gold (XAUUSD) received a muted bid overnight in response to the omicron virus comments from the head of Moderna (see oil section above). In addition, comments from Fed chair Powell helped reduced 2022 rate expectations from three to two after he said the omicron virus posed risks to both sides of the central bank’s mandate for stable prices and maximum employment. Despite this development together with softer Treasury yields and a weaker dollar, gold continues to struggle attracting a safe-haven bid. Silver (XAGUSD) looks even worse having dropped to a six-week low on weakness spilling over from industrial metals. Forex:Broad dollar buying following Fed chair Powell's renomination helped drive a 20% increase in the greenback long against ten IMM currency futures and the Dollar index to $25.4 billion and near a two-year high. All the currencies tracked in this saw net selling with the biggest contributors being euro (12.6k lots), CAD (11.8k) and JPY (4.1). The net short on the latter reached 97.2k lots or the equivalent of $10.6 billion, a short of this magnitude helps explain the strength of the sell off in USDJPY since last Thursday when safe haven demand picked up as the omicron news began to spread. Despite hitting a 16-month low last week the euro short only reached 12.6k lots, a far cry from the -114k lots reached during the panic month of February last year when the pair briefly traded below €1.08. What is the Commitments of Traders report? The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class. Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and otherFinancials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and otherForex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators) The reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of the highlighted groups are: They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming

Emini S&P December rocketed back to my selling opportunity at 4660/65. Shorts here worked perfectly with a high for the day just 4 points above & an over night collapse to 4582 as I write. Outlook remains negative after last week's bearish engulfing candle. Nasdaq December unexpectedly shot higher to strong resistance at 16400/450. Shorts here worked perfectly with a high for the day here as we sell off towards 16200. Emini Dow Jones December shot higher towards strong resistance at 35300/350 but we only reach 35234. Outlook remains negative. Update daily at 07:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Emini S&P holding below 4600/4395 in what looks like a developing bear trend keeps the pressure on to test very strong support at 4560/50 & also the measured target for the completed head & shoulders sell signal. Therefore worth trying longs with stops below 4540. A break lower however is a sell signal targeting 4505/00. First resistance at 4625/30 but above 4635 can retest our selling opportunity at 4660/65. Try shorts with stops above 4670. A break higher targets 4685/90. Nasdaq December minor support at 16200/150 but outlook is more negative after the weekly bearish engulfing candle. A retest of last week's low at 16000/15988 is likely. A break below here is an important sell signal, expected to target support at 15880/830. This is likely to hold the first test although longs could be risky. A break lower sees 15830/880 act as resistance to target 15700 & 15600/550. Strong resistance at strong resistance at 16400/450. Stop above 16470. A break higher is a buy signal targeting 16550/580. Emini Dow Jones December broke support at 34800/750 this morning so holding below here targets 34550 & the measured target for the head & shoulders at 34450/350 (hit this morning exactly as I write) & as far as the 200 day moving average at 34250/200. Longs look risky. Eventually we could reach strong support at 33700/650. Longs need stops below 33500. Gains are likely to be limited with first resistance at 34750/800 but above 34850 opens the door to 35000/100, perhaps as far as strong resistance at 35300/350. Try shorts with stops above 35450 To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.

USDCAD seeks support The Canadian dollar edged higher after Q3’s GDP beat expectations. A bullish MA cross on the daily chart indicates a bullish bias in the US dollar’s favor. The break above the resistance at 1.2770 suggests that the bulls retain control of the direction. An overbought RSI has tempered the bullish fever temporarily, which may be an opportunity for buyers to accumulate. September’s high at 1.2900 is the next target. A bullish breakout could trigger an extended rally towards 1.3100. 1.2730 is now fresh support. AUDUSD falls towards 11-month low The Australian dollar bounced back on upbeat GDP in Q3. The break below 0.7170 has negated October’s rally. A bearish MA cross on the daily chart confirms that sentiment has turned sour. The Aussie is heading to October 2020’s low and the psychological level of 0.7000. An oversold RSI has prompted sellers to start to cover in that congestion area. 0.7190 is a resistance from the previous demand zone and trend followers are likely to sell a rebound. Buyers will need to take out those offers to ease the pressure. UK 100 to test daily support The FTSE 100 struggles with doubts about vaccine efficacy against the omicron variant. A drop below the daily support at 7190 triggered a sharp liquidation. Then a short-lived rebound has met stiff selling pressure at 7170. The index is hovering above the origin of the October rally at 6945. The bulls will need to clear the resistance before they could hope for a recovery. Otherwise, a bearish breakout would send the price to test the triple bottom (6830) from the daily timeframe. And that is the key to the uptrend’s integrity in the medium term.

Apple stock recovers ground on Monday as it rises 2%. AAPL shares close above $160 and just below all-time highs. Apple and equity indices see increased volatility as Omicron data awaited. After a freaky Friday, it was back to business as usual on Monday with equity markets putting in a solid start to the week. All those rookie traders who panicked on Friday were likely given a stern rebuke from returning senior traders who know that this market in 2021 is a one-way bet. That is thanks to the flow of money from the Fed juicing markets, a huge earnings potential from mega tech names and now a large buyback season as companies are past earnings blackouts. That is certainly what happened on Monday as volumes returned from Friday's reduced levels and markets got back to rallying. Goldman Sachs had said it does not see Omicron as a risk, and the South Africans appear to see this as an overreaction, with cases being reported as mild so far. Hopefully, this plays out to be true, but while it is hard to derail this 2021 bull, we could be in for some volatile weeks ahead. Apple (AAPL) stock news We await more concrete evidence on how sales look for Black Friday/Cyber Monday, but initial reports were not positive with overall online sales down on previous years. Wedbush though sees Apple selling 10 million iPhones over the Thanksgiving weekend and predicts 40 million iPhone sales between now and Christmas. It should be noted Wedbush is strongly bullish on Apple. They have been largely correct with that stance. Apple did receive some good news yesterday in the form of a price target raise from HSBC. Apart from that, it was relatively calm on the news front. Apple (AAPL) stock forecast AAPL stock really needs to break above $162 to hold Monday's gains and push on. Above there, volume thins out, so a move to all-time highs should be achievable. Failure though will likely see a move lower to $150. Volume is light until then apart from a slight spike with support at $157. AAPL 30-minute chart The daily chart shows the strong trend intact and the $157 support. Large volume support sits at $148. AAPL 1-day chart

Dogecoin price is moving sideways after a breakout from a descending triangle pattern. A potential 400% move to $1.08 will face obstacles up to $0.35, beyond which, DOGE should rally swiftly. On-chain metrics are hinting at an increase in large transactions and a paradigm shift in the nature of holders. Dogecoin price is at a crucial tipping point in its evolution with the potential for it to trigger a massive volatile move. Hurdles exist, however, that will make it difficult to reach its intended target, of a new all-time high. Dogecoin price at make or break levels Dogecoin price has set up three lower highs and two higher lows, which when connected using trend lines reveals a descending triangle. This technical formation forecasts a 361% upswing to $1.09, obtained by adding the distance between the first swing high and low to the breakout point at $0.24. DOGE breached the triangle’s hypotenuse on October 18 at $0.24. Since this point, the meme coin has struggled to move higher but failed. Interestingly, Dogecoin price has been moving sideways and has retested the $0.193 support level thrice since August 3 with the latest revisit on November 26. This created a triple-tap setup, a bullish technical formation that forecasts a reversal in the trend. Since Shiba Inu has stolen DOGE’s spotlight, things have been calm and consolidative for the original meme coin. If the buying pressure increases, however, pushing Dogecoin price to pierce through the $0.29 level to $0.35, and it produces a daily close above it, it will trigger an uptrend. In this scenario, it will allow market makers to collect the sell-stop liquidity resting above $0.35. This development will allow DOGE to create a platform for the next leg-up at $0.44. Clearing this hurdle will open the path to retest the current all-time high for Dogecoin price at $0.74. According to this prediction, DOGE could extend its bull rally to tag $1.09, its intended target. Due to the recent downswing, this upswing will represent a 400% gain from the current position at $0.22. DOGE/USDT 1-day chart As mentioned earlier, Shiba Inu seems to have siphoned off the hype, investors, and capital from Dogecoin, affecting its price, but things seem to be reverting, with some on-chain metrics suggesting a flip of the narrative is possible. On-chain metrics predict a bright future Looking at the transaction data tells a story about the nature of investors. Large transactions track transfers that are $100,000 or more. An increase in this metric serves as a proxy for institutions and their investment thesis. Over the past six months, the number of such transactions has increased by 70.7% from 1,570 to 2,680. This uptick in the metric suggests that high networth investors are starting to take interest in DOGE at the current price levels. DOGE large transaction chart While the above metric provides an insight into the potential investments, IntoTheBlock’s Global In/Out of the Money (GIOM) model shows where significant blockades are present. This fundamental index reveals that the DOGE will face formidable challenges ranging from $0.30 to $0.34. Here roughly 500,000 addresses that purchased 47 billion DOGE are “Out of the Money” and are likely to sell to breakeven, increasing the selling pressure. If buyers overcome this uptick in sell-side momentum and produce a daily close above $0.35, however, it will clear the daily demand mentioned above. This move will also open the path up for market makers to collect liquidity. All in all, this on-chain metric also promotes a bullish idea for DOGE with a contingency that the bullish momentum pushes the meme coin above $0.35. DOGE GIOM chart While the on-chain metrics described above serve as a tailwind for the bullish thesis, the new addresses joining the network add a dent to it. This metric shows that new users joining the Dogecoin network over the past six months have declined by 34.7% from 34,320 to 22,380. This reduction indicates that despite the capital inflows observed in the large transaction metric, a majority of investors are not yet interested in DOGE. Hence, this divergence between the new addresses and the large transaction chart paints indecision. DOGE new addresses chart The discrepancy noticed above can be explained in the holders’ chart which shows a paradigm shift. In November 2020, the composition of DOGE investors was 74.2% holders (1+ years), 18.6% Cruisers (1 month to 1 year) and 7.2% traders (less than a month). As of November 2021, this composition has changed and shows that cruisers are currently dominating with a 50.7% stake, while holders have dropped to 42.1%. This drastic decrease in the long-term holders suggests that these investors have been distributing their holdings over the past year ie., indicating increased sell-side pressure, which adds credence to DOGE’s lackluster performance over the period. In summary, if long-term holders stop offloading their DOGE holdings, investors can expect Dogecoin price to start inflating. DOGE Ownership chart On the other hand, if the selling pressure increases, knocking Dogecoin price below the $0.193 support level, it will lead to a retest of the descending triangle’s base at $0.16. If the bears produce a daily candlestick below this crucial barrier, it will open up DOGE to a massive 45% crash to $0.09, with a potential pitstop at $0.12.  

Concerns about the Omicron covid variant weigh on the market’s sentiment. German inflation peaked at 6% YoY in November, according to preliminary estimates. EUR/USD has lost bullish strength and may soon resume its decline. The EUR/USD pair trades marginally lower on Monday around the 1.1280 price level after hitting an intraday high of 1.1313. The American dollar is slowly recovering some of the ground shed on Friday as the market’s mood improves. Asian stocks plummeted, although European indexes trade with modest gains, leading to an uptick in US futures. US Treasury yields are also recovering ground, with the yield on the 10-year note currently at 1.54%. Concerns about a new coronavirus variant firstly detected in South Africa spurred risk aversion on Friday and triggered some measures such as borders closures. Still, the variant, named Omicron, has already been detected in different European countries. So far, the WHO has called it a variant of concern, although there’s not much information about it. Pfizer is developing a study to understand whether their vaccine works against this new strain, while Moderna announced a new shot to combat it could be developed by early 2022. Meanwhile, European Central Bank (ECB) governing council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos said this Monday that European policymakers aim to avoid the premature tightening of the monetary policy, repeating that high inflation could be expected to be transitory, despite being stronger and more persistent than anticipated a few months ago. On the data front, the EU published the November Economic Sentiment, which came as expected at 117.5, down from the previous 118.6. Germany published the preliminary estimate of its November Consumer Price Index, which came in higher than anticipated, up by 0.3% in the month and 6% YoY. The US will publish October Pending Home Sales and the November Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index after Wall Street’s close. EUR/USD short-term technical outlook The EUR/USD pair was unable to advance beyond the 23.6% retracement of its November decline at 1.1305, the immediate resistance level. According to the daily chart, the latest advance seems corrective, as technical indicators bounced from extreme readings, now resuming their declines and hinting at a bearish continuation. The 20 SMA maintains its firmly bearish slope above the 38.2% retracement of the same decline, reflecting sellers’ strength. The 4-hour chart shows that the pair remains above a mildly bullish 20 SMA, while technical indicators retreat from oversold readings but remain within positive levels. The bearish case will be firmer on a break below 1.1245, the immediate support level. Support levels: 1.1245 1.1200 1.1165 Resistance levels: 1.1305 1.1340 1.1395

Nevertheless, this might be over soon. Regulation might kill the majority of the expanded crypto world. Bitcoin might be banned, as it has been in the past in various countries. And yet, once fiat currency value implodes, bitcoin will be the last man standing. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, last weeks call on the nose: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 23rd, 2021. We posted the above weekly chart of bitcoin in last week’s chart book release. We anticipated a low-risk entry. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, as planned: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Weekly chart as of November 29th, 2021. Since then, prices have swiftly penetrated our entry zone. We caught two trades, a daily and a weekly time frame position. We posted these trades (entries and the partial exits), as usual, in real-time in our free Telegram channel.Furthermore, we employ a quad exit strategy that ensures instant risk elimination by quickly taking half of the position off. With entries of US$ 53,877 (daily timeframe trade) and US$ 54,000 (weekly timeframe trade), we were able, with first exits at US$ 54,591 and US$ 55,797, to not only eliminate risk but ensure profits on half of the positions of 1.33% and 3.33%. As well our next following targets have been reached! We took another 25% of position size out at US$ 55,811.6 and US$ 57,317.7, which booked us another 3.59% return on the daily position and 6.14% on the weekly position. The remaining 25% of position sizes on each trade we call runners. With stops set now at break-even entry levels, we can only produce additional winnings for each trade. Each trade had tight stops, assuring less than half a percent of risk per trade.   BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, modest odds for follow through: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 30th, 2021. The possible contrarian short signal on the monthly chart makes the weekly trades success probabilities for the runner smaller. Nevertheless, this quad exit approach allows for low-risk positioning versus endless mind chatter and debate since it is typical that different time frames show different long, short and sideways plays. Here, bitcoin again overcomes adversity. Typically, tight ranged instruments erase many trade opportunities for profit margins relating to commissions and risk to small. The earlier mentioned profit percent numbers are typical for bitcoins volatility and, as such, allow for risk reduction and short- to midterm profitability being more extensive than the average S&P500 annual return. Bitcoin, overcoming adversity: Bitcoin will be the cure to inflation damage for those you invested in it in a timely manner. Inflation is a creeping disease to money. Humans seem to have in history always procrastinated towards dangers of inflation, mostly since inflation treads slowly. Inflation also holds illusions supporting hope, hope that also fuels procrastination. While most who suffer under inflationary times think prices for goods went up, the reality is that monetary value went down. With this illusion, we hold on to stock portfolios seemingly rising, bonds, 401ks, and Roth IRAs trusting governments for the status quo to be protected or at least trouble to be temporary. Much more likely, most citizens are drained of their savings and cheated out of their retirements. At the end of such a monetary devaluation cycle, it will be the last time bitcoin will defend its place.  Doubt will finally vanish. Unfortunately, too late for those who did not educate themselves early enough to find a haven in this principled way to protect one’s wealth. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|November 29th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

Even though the technicals have been predicting this for several months, people were still taken aback by gold’s fall — that’s why they are booing. While the precious metals received a round of applause for their performances in October, I warned on several occasions that the celebration was premature. And with gold, silver, and mining stocks resuming their 2021 downtrends, investors’ cheers have turned into jeers in short order. To explain, I warned previously that the GDX ETF could rally to or slightly above $35 (the senior miners reached this level intraday on Nov. 12, moving one cent above it). However, with the GDX ETF’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) signaling overbought conditions, I highlighted just how quickly the air often comes out of the balloon. For context, the blue vertical dashed lines below depict the sharp reversals that followed after the GDX ETF’s RSI approached or superseded 70. Why am I telling you this? To emphasize that what happened recently was neither random nor accidental. What you see is a true, short-term top that formed in tune with previous patterns. You also see a fake inverse head-and-shoulders formation that was invalidated. This means that the implications of what happened really are bearish. Let’s check why and how, in tune with the past patterns, the previous broad top really was. Please see below: The GDX ETF rallied on huge volume on Nov. 11 and there were only 4 cases in the recent past when we saw something like that after a visible short-term rally. In EACH of those 4 cases, GDX was after a sharp daily rally. In EACH of those 4 cases, GDX-based RSI indicator (upper part of the chart above) was trading close to 70. The rallies that immediately preceded these 4 cases: The July 27, 2020 session was immediately preceded by a 29-trading-day rally that took the GDX about 42% higher. It was 7 trading days before the final top (about 24% of time). The November 5, 2020 session was immediately preceded by a 5-trading-day rally that took the GDX about 14%-15% higher (the high-volume day / the top). It was 1 trading day before the final top (20% of time). The January 4, 2021 session was immediately preceded by a 26-trading-day rally that took the GDX about 17%-18% higher (the high-volume day / the top). It was 1 trading day before the final top (about 4% of time). The May 17, 2021 session was immediately preceded by a 52-trading-day rally that took the GDX about 30% higher. It was 7 trading days before the final top (about 13% of time). So, as you can see these sessions have even more in common than it seemed at the first sight. The sessions formed soon before the final tops (4% - 24% of time of the preceding rally before the final top), but the prices didn’t move much higher compared to how much they had already rallied before the high-volume sessions. Consequently, since history tends to rhyme, it would have been only natural for one to expect the GDX ETF to move a bit higher here (but not significantly so) and for one to assume that this move higher would take between additional 0 to 7 trading days (based on the Nov. 12 session). That’s what is wrote to my subscribers – to expect this kind of performance. The final top formed on Nov. 16 - 4 trading days after the huge-volume session, practically right in the middle of the expected 0-7 trading day range. Moreover, since the GDX topped very close to its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, it seems that miners corrected “enough” for another huge downswing to materialize. Having said that, let’s move on to more recent developments. Gold price declined heavily recently and the same goes for the silver price. What’s more, the proxy for junior mining stocks - the GDXJ ETF (our short position) materially underperformed on Nov. 26 – after it declined by nearly 3x the percentage of the GDX ETF – and, in my opinion, more downside is likely to materialize over the medium term. The GDXJ ETF ended the Nov. 26 session slightly below its 50-day moving average, and the milestone is often a precursor to sharp drawdowns. That’s what happened in late February 2020 and also in mid-June 2021. Big declines followed in both cases. Moreover, with the S&P 500’s weakness on Nov. 26 mirroring the onslaught that unfolded in early 2020, the GDXJ ETF’s underperformance follows a familiar script. As a result, another ‘flash crash’ for the pair may unfold once again. Keep in mind, though: while asset prices often don’t move in a straight line, a bullish pause may ensue if/once gold reaches its previous lows. All in all, though, lower lows should confront the GDXJ ETF over the short term and my $35 price target remains up to date. As a reminder, that’s only an interim target, analogous to the late-Feb. 2020 low. Interestingly, it is the February 2020 low along with its late-March 2020 high that created this target. Also, the GDXJ/GDX ratio is falling once again. And with the price action implying that the GDXJ ETF is underperforming the GDX ETF, a drop below 1 isn’t beyond the realms of possibility. In fact, it’s quite likely. As such, this is why I’m shorting the junior mining stocks. For context, I think that gold, silver and the GDX ETF are all ripe for sharp re-ratings over the medium term. However, I think that the GDXJ ETF offers the best risk-reward proposition due to its propensity to materially underperform during bear markets in the general stock market. Finally, the HUI Index/gold ratio is also eliciting bearish signals. For example, I marked (with the shaded red boxes below) just how similar the current price action is to 2013. And back then, after a sharp decline was followed by a small corrective upswing before the plunge, the ratio’s current behavior mirrors its historical counterpart. What’s more, the end of the corrective upswing in 2013 occurred right before gold sunk to its previous lows (marked with red vertical dashed lines in the middle of the chart below). Thus, the ratio is already sending ominous warnings about the PMs’ future path. In addition, with the S&P 500 acting as the bearish canary in the coal mine, the ratio plunged in 2008 and 2020 when the general stock market tanked. Thus, if a similar event unfolds this time around, the gold miners’ sell-off could occur at a rapid pace. For more context, I wrote previously: A major breakdown occurred after the HUI Index/gold ratio sunk below its rising support line (the upward sloping black line on the right side of the chart above). Moreover, with the bearish milestone only achieved prior to gold’s crash in 2012-2013, the ratio’s breakdown in 2013 was the last chance to short the yellow metal at favorable prices. And while I’ve been warning about the ratio’s potential breakdown for weeks, the majority of precious metals investors are unaware of the metric and its implications. As a result, investors’ propensity to ‘buy the dip’ in gold will likely backfire over the medium term. In conclusion, the crowd has turned on the precious metals, and the narrative has shifted once again. However, despite all of the drama and the volatility that came with it, the technicals have been predicting this outcome for several months. And with the GDXJ ETF down by more than 20% YTD (as of the Nov. 26 close), the junior miners’ 2021 performance is far from critically-acclaimed. As a result, the chorus of boos will likely continue over the short- and/or medium term. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Fundamental factors EUR/USD ended last week with a steamrolling. This week, the pair keeps edging up. Why? First, the uncertainty over the new Covid-19 variant, omicron, led to a surge in demand in safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and the Swiss. Since the US dollar lost its safe-haven role, traders preferred the EUR to the greenback. Second, the USD was rising as the markets were pricing in the rate hike by the Federal Reserve. However, omicron raised concerns that the US central bank can delay a rate increase – the bearish factor for the USD. Overall, a recovery in the US dollar depends on the vaccine progress against the omicron variant. Today, on Wednesday, we see the US dollar climbing up. It is the result of Powell’s comments. Jerome Powell is the Federal Reserve Chair. He signaled his intention to taper faster, and it supported the USD. Both omicron and Powell’s comments increased volatility in EUR/USD. What to expect further? The US will reveal essential economic data in the upcoming weeks. If it is strong, the Fed can turn more hawkish at the FOMC meeting on December 16. Technical factors The overall trend is bearish. EUR/USD has been moving down since May. However, the short-term trend is bullish as EUR/USD surged and recovered some losses thanks to the weak dollar. It has failed to cross the resistance level of 1.1370 – the high of November 19. The pair can reverse down to the recent low of 1.1260. If it crosses it from the top down, there are more chances the pair will fall further to the psychological mark of 1.1200. Resistance levels are 1.1370 and 1.1460. Download the FBS Trader app to trade anytime anywhere! For a personal computer or laptop, use MetaTrader 5!

  Stock prices were volatile on Tuesday, as the S&P 500 fell to the new local low. But today it may rebound again. but will the downtrend continue? For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch   The S&P 500 index lost 1.90% on Tuesday, Nov. 30. The market went lower following testimonies from the Fed Chair Powell and the Treasury Secretary Yellen. On Monday the broad stock market retraced more than a half of its Friday’s sell-off, but yesterday it fell to the new local low of 4,560.00. Today it is expected to open 1.0% higher again, so we will see more short-term volatility. The nearest important support level is at 4,560-4,600. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,650, marked by the recent local lows. The S&P 500 retraced most of its early November advance, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq 100 Remains Relatively Stronger Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index remained relatively stronger than the broad stock market yesterday, as it didn’t extend a short-term downtrend. It remained above its Friday’s local low and above the 16,000 mark, as we can see on the daily chart: Apple Got Close to the Record High Again Let’s take a look at biggest stock in the S&P 500 index: AAPL. Apple accelerated its uptrend a week ago and it reached the new record high of $165.70. However, it retraced almost all of its intraday advance that day. On Friday it got back to a support level of around $157. And yesterday it got back to the all-time high, as it closed slightly above the $165 price level. Conclusion The S&P 500 index is expected to open 1.0% higher this morning following an overnight rebound from the yesterday’s new short-term low. We will likely see an intraday consolidation following a higher opening. And for now, it looks like a consolidation within a short-term downtrend. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 extended its short-term downtrend yesterday, but today it is expected to open higher again. A speculative short position is still justified from the risk/reward perspective. We are expecting a 5% correction. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

You see a commodity going down, then it reverses and starts teasing you with an upward move… only to end up declining further. Is this the case now?I started yesterday’s analysis with a question that I then replied to, explaining why I thought that it wasn’t necessarily a good idea take profits from one’s short positions at this time, as the corrective upswings could be nothing to write home about, and that it might not be that easy to get back in the short positions at better (higher) prices.Well, yesterday’s session showed exactly what I meant, and the 4-hour chart found below provides the details.The upper part of the chart features the GDX ETF (proxy for gold mining stocks), and the lower part thereof features the GLD ETF (proxy for gold price itself.)First of all, gold stocks were first to break below their rising support line – that happened a couple of days ago. Gold moved decisively below its rising support line only yesterday. This emphasizes that gold stocks are leading gold lower. This, in turn, is a bearish confirmation in itself, as that’s what tends to happen at the beginning of a bigger move lower.The way both markets performed yesterday was also quite interesting.In case of mining stocks, the intraday rally took GDX just slightly above its rising support line and then miners moved back down in a flash. In other words, if anyone had exited their short positions in order to re-enter them at higher prices, they had very little time to do so, and the most realistic version of this scenario is that they ended the session while missing the 1% decline in the GDX. The silver price was down by just 4 cents, but still, it was a move lower despite an intraday rally.In the case of GLD, one might have thought that gold was bound to rally since it stopped at its rising support line (based on the Sep. and Nov. lows). And gold even rallied by about $20 intraday… Only to decline more and end yesterday’s session lower.That was not a reversal. That was a bull trap.And the most bearish thing about yesterday’s decline – and weakness? It happened while the USD Index moved lower during the day. The USDX ended the day 0.33 lower, which “should have” triggered gold’s rally. Instead, gold declined, proving that it really wants to move lower. And suggesting that profits from one’s short positions in mining stocks are likely to become bigger.Don’t get me wrong – I do think that we’ll see a counter-trend upswing, but it’s just not that likely that we’ll see it right now. For quite some time, I’ve been repeating that it’s likely that we’ll see some kind of corrective upswing once gold moves back to its yearly lows, and this remains to be the case.Then, after the rebound, gold is likely to decline once again, perhaps to its final lows (for many years to come).Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Forex 2021-12-01 15:25 4 minutes to read Summary:  Fed Chair Powell cemented recent evidence that the Fed has changed its stripes from a punch bowl refiller for the economy and the labor market to an inflation fighter at large. The market is finding it tough to absorb this message, given the recent market choppiness and virus distractions, but interesting that the US dollar has not found more strength on this momentous pivot. FX Trading focus: Hawkish broadside from Powell Fed Chair Powell cemented the impression that the Fed has shifted firmly into inflation fighting mode with an appearance yesterday before a Fed panel. The rhetoric was direct and of a make-no-mistake variety. Powell said that the end of balance sheet expansion would likely wind down a few  months sooner than originally foreseen, even with the current omicron variant of covid concerns. He also spelled out that it is probably time to retire the word “transitory” when discussing inflation, ad said that the risk of higher inflation has increased. Perhaps most interesting was a comment that persistent higher inflation brought a risk to getting the labor market back to where it was pre-covid. It is crystal clear at this point that the Fed has pivoted to inflation-fighting and tightening and will move in that direction as quickly as it can until the inflation numbers improve markedly. Of course, the market was already adjusting to clear signs that the Fed is moving into a far more hawkish stance early last week, only to be sidelined viciously by the omicron variant worries in recent days. Were it not for that interlude, Fed expectations would likely be at new cycle highs as yesterday’s signals from Powell make the Fed shift as clear as day. As it is, we have only clawed back a majority of the 2022 hikes priced in pricing of Fed rate hikes, still some 8 basis points to go for end of year Fed pricing (the “omicron discount” being perhaps 15 basis points or more?). The two curious things are that the US yield curve continues to viciously flatten and the market continues to price the terminal Fed rate for the coming hiking cycle at 2.00%. The inability for the longer yields to lift higher recently may be reining in the USD upside for. The other indicator besides yield-curve shifts that is making waves here on my radar screen of financial conditions is the measure of corporate credit, where spreads have blown wider, as discussed over the last couple of episodes of the Saxo Market Call podcast. The bluntness from the Fed yesterday may have driven the particularly bad day for junk bonds as the new style from the Fed could lead investors in the riskiest debt to conclude that they may be allowed to twist in the breeze down the road if inflation levels stay high, rather than receiving endless bailouts that keep zombie companies in business and able to forever roll forward their debts. We are set up for an interesting 2022 that will likely look very different from 2021. The shift in Fed rhetoric will make the market extra-sensitive to US data and developments that impact inflation, from energy prices, to the CPI/PCE data itself and the average hourly earnings data perhaps even more than the usual nonfarm payrolls change focus. Today’s Beige Book could be interesting for anecdotal evidence from interviews with companies on their impression of supply constraints, wage adjustments and issues finding qualified workers, etc. Today’s November ADP Payrolls was another strong 500k+ as expected. Chart: USDJPYUSDJPY was handcuffed by developments yesterday – on the one hand with the USD supported by a rise in Fed expectations, but on the other hand, JPY traders finding no fresh reason to bid up the JPY as the long end of the US yield curve remains pinned at quite low yields and there has been no shift in the Fed’s “terminal rate” – where the market sees the Fed rate hike cycle peeking out. So the price action bobbed well back above the 112.73 range pivot level that was broken yesterday, but has a steep wall to climb to threaten the 115.00+ cycle highs again, something that would likely require the entire Fed yield curve to lift, and more aggressively than expectations for policy normalization elsewhere. Source: Saxo Group Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strengthAgain, the market is finding the reaction function increasingly difficult to the recent jolts in inputs. Note the huge momentum shift in SEK, where the market overdid the recent squeeze, but the strength there will likely only improve once the euro bottoms and the outlook for EU yields and fiscal improves. Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.Well entrenched trends are few and far between, but the EURCNH and EURCHF downtrends stand out, with the latter’s lack of volatility after recent direction changes remarkable. The Swiss franc does well as a safe haven and does well because the SNB can’t be seen weakening the currency when inflation pressures are rising. Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1500 – US Fed Chair Powell, Treasury Secretary Yellen to testify before House panel 1500 – US Nov. ISM Manufacturing 1530 – DOE’s Weekly Crude Oil and Fuel Inventories 1900 - Fed Beige Book 0030 – Australia Oct. Trade Balance

Saxo Bank has today released its 10 Outrageous Predictions for 2022. The predictions focus on a series of unlikely but underappreciated events which, if they were to occur, could send shockwaves across financial markets: The plan to end fossil fuels gets a rain check Facebook faceplants on youth exodus The US mid-term election brings constitutional crisis US inflation reaches above 15% on wage-price spiral EU Superfund for climate, energy and defence announced, to be funded by private pensions Women’s Reddit Army takes on the corporate patriarchy India joins the Gulf Cooperation Council as a non-voting member Spotify disrupted due to NFT-based digital rights platform New hypersonic tech drives space race and new cold war Medical breakthrough extends average life expectancy 25 years While these predictions do not constitute Saxo’s official market forecasts for 2022, they represent a warning against the potential misallocation of risk among investors who might typically assign just a one percent chance of these events materialising.  It’s an exercise in considering the full extent of what is possible, even if not necessarily probable, and particularly relevant in the context of this year’s unexpected Covid-19 crisis. Inevitably the outcomes that prove the most disruptive (and therefore outrageous) are those that are a surprise to consensus. Commenting on this year’s Outrageous Predictions, Chief Investment Officer at Saxo Bank, Steen Jakobsen said:   “The theme for 2022 Outrageous Predictions is Revolution. There is so much energy building up in our inequality-plagued society and economy. Add to that the inability of the current system to address the issue and we need to look into the future with a fundamental view that it’s not a question of whether we get a revolution but a more a question of when and how. With every revolution, some win and some lose, but that’s not the point—if the current system can’t change but must, a revolution is the only path forward. A culture war is raging across the globe and the divide is no longer simply between the rich and the poor. It’s also the young versus the old, the educated class versus the less educated working class, real markets with price discovery versus government intervention, stock market buy-backs versus R&D spending, inflation versus deflation, women versus men, the progressive left versus the centrist left, virtual signalling on social media versus real changes to society, the rentier class versus labour, fossil fuels versus green energy, ESG initiatives versus the need to supply the world with reliable energy—the list go on. We collaborated globally on Covid vaccines in 2020 and 2021. Now we need a new Manhattan Project–-type endeavour to set the marginal cost of energy, adjusted for productivity, on the path to much lower levels while eliminating the impact of our energy generation on the environment. Such a move would unleash the most significant productivity cycle in history: we could desalinate water, make vertical farms feasible almost anywhere, increase computer powers to quantum states, and continue to explore new boundaries in biology and physics.” Remember that the world is forever evolving if at varying speeds, while business and political cycles are always finite.” The Outrageous Predictions 2022 publication is available here with headline summaries below: 1. The plan to end fossil fuels gets a rain check Summary: Policymakers kick climate targets down the road and support fossil fuel investment to fight inflation and the risk of social unrest while rethinking the path to a low-carbon future. Realising the inflationary threat from surging commodities prices and the risk of an economic train wreck due to the unrealistic timeline for the green energy transition, policymakers kick climate targets down the road. They relax investment red tape for five years for oil production and ten years for natural gas production, to encourage producers to ensure adequate and reasonably priced supplies that bridge the gap from the energy present to the low-carbon energy future. This development has already jacked up prices and price volatility, not only for energy, but also for industrial metals, most of which are needed in greater quantities for the green transformation push. On top of this, surging energy prices have spiked prices for diesel and especially fertiliser, important farming costs that raise concerns about the production of key food crops. Market impact: The iShares Stoxx EU 600 Oil & Gas ETF (Ticker: EXH1:xetr) surges 50 percent as the whole energy sector gets a new lease on life 2. Facebook faceplants on youth exodus Summary: The young abandon Facebook’s platforms in protest at the mining of personal information for profit; the attempt by Facebook parent Meta to reel them back in with the Metaverse stumbles. Facebook has gone from being a vibrant hub of young people, to a platform for older “boomers” as young people would say. Young people are increasingly turned off by Facebook’s algorithms turning their social media experiences into that of homogenous feedback loops of identical content, or even worse, hateful and disinforming content. Facebook’s own research suggests that teens spend 2 to 3 times longer on TikTok than on Instagram (which is Facebook’s youngest social media asset), and that Snapchat is the preferred way to communicate with friends. A new company name (Facebook is now called Meta) and brand identity to separate and shield Instagram (its most valuable current asset), together with creating a new product tailored towards young people, is the exact same playbook tobacco companies have used for years. But in 2022, investors will realise that Meta is rapidly losing the young generation and thus the future potential and profitability of the company. In a desperate move, Meta tries to acquire Snapchat or TikTok while throwing billions of dollars into building the creepy Metaverse, which is aimed at surveilling users more directly than ever before and getting young people back into Meta’s universe of social media platforms, in the perceived wisdom that being a first mover is always best in technology. The plan struggles to take off as the young generation fails to sign up. Market impact: Facebook parent company Meta struggles, down 30 percent versus the broader market and is urged to spin off its components as separate entities, shattering Zuckerberg’s monopolistic dreams. 3. The US mid-term election brings constitutional crisis Summary: The US mid-term election sees a stand-off over the certification of close Senate and/or House election results, leading to a scenario where the 118th Congress is unable to sit on schedule in early 2023. The chaotic 2020 US Presidential Election was a scary moment for many US institutions. The sitting president Donald J. Trump initially refused to conceded defeat in the election and complained that the election was stolen, a claim that was never seriously challenged in a court of law but one which had widespread sympathy among the Trump base. A crowd of hard-core believers in the stolen election conspiracy was encouraged by the President’s rhetoric to a sufficient degree to storm Capitol Hill and “stop the steal”, i.e., to prevent the election result from being made official on January 6, 2021, in a scene unprecedented in US history. Prior to this, and then again later in the hotly contested Senate run-off elections in Georgia, dedicated election officials—many of them Republican—were doing their duty to tally the real results while risking their life amidst threats—even death threats—from extremists. In 2022, the Republicans ensure that no such traditional duty-bound officials are in the “wrong” place, with all election-related positions filled by toe-the-line partisans ready to do anything to tilt the results to suppressing voter turnout. In the wake of the 2022 election, a handful of key Senate and House races come down to the wire and one or both sides move against certifying the vote, making it impossible for the new Congress to form and sit on its scheduled first day of January 3, 2023. Joe Biden rules by decree and US democracy is suspended as even Democrats also dig in against the Supreme Court that was tilted heavily by Trump. A full-blown constitutional crisis stretches over the horizon over the stand-off as 2023 gets under way. Market impact: extreme volatility in US assets, as US treasury yields rise and the USD drops on hedging against the existential crisis in the world’s largest economy and issuer of the world’s reserve currency of choice. 4. US inflation reaches above 15% on wage-price spiral Summary: By the fourth quarter of 2022, the wages for the lower half of US incomes are rising at an annualised 15% clip as companies scramble to find willing and qualified workers who are increasingly selective due to a rising sense of entitlement as jobs are plentiful relative to the meagre availability of workers at all skill levels. The official US CPI reached a peak at 11.8% in February 1975. It wasn’t until the recession of 1980-82 and brutal policy rate increases to levels as high as 20% that inflation was finally killed. In 2022, the Federal Reserve and Fed chair Jerome Powell repeats the same mistake all over again as the post-Covid outbreak economy and especially the labour market are severely supply constrained, making a mockery of the Fed’s traditional models. Powell believes millions of Americans will return to work and fill some of the 10.4 million open job positions as Covid-19 fades. But this is plain wrong. Some have retired early due to the crisis and thus have permanently left the US workforce. The big difference between today and yesterday is that the pandemic has fuelled a great awakening of workers. Across sectors and income classes they realise they are now more empowered than ever. They demand a better experience: better job conditions, higher wages, more flexibility and a sense of purpose from work. Coupled with persistent inflationary pressures coming from the production side, the energy crisis and labour shortage, this results in unprecedented broad-based double-digit annualised wage increases by Q4. As a consequence, US inflation reaches an annualised pace above 15% before the start of 2023, for the first time since WWII. This prompts the Federal Reserve into a too-little, too-late move to tighten monetary policy faster in a desperate effort to tame inflation. But the central bank has lost credibility; it will take time to regain it. Market impact: extreme volatility in US equity and credit markets. The JNK high-yield ETF falls as much as 20% and the VIXM mid-curve volatility ETF soars as much as 70%. 5. EU Superfund for climate, energy and defence announced, to be funded by private pensions Summary: To defend against the rise of populism, deepen the commitment to slowing climate change, and defend its borders as the US security umbrella recedes, the EU launches a bold $3 trillion Superfund to be funded by pension allocations rather than new taxes. The security umbrella provided by the US during the Cold War and afterwards over much of Eastern Europe is rapidly fading and threatens to fail entirely in the years ahead as the US looks east at far more serious economic and military rivals. French President Macron, backed by a Draghi moving to stave off Italy’s own rise of the populists, rolls out a vision for an “EU Superfund” that will address the three-fold priorities of defence, climate and the related clean energy transition. Given the EU’s aging population and heavy tax burdens, policymakers know that it will be impossible to finance the Superfund with higher taxes on incomes or other traditional tax revenues. Instead, France has a light-bulb moment as it seeks to overhaul its pension system and looks at Europe’s enormous pensions. It decides that all pensions for all workers above the age of 40 must allocate a progressively larger portion of their pension assets into Superfund bonds as they age. This allows new levels of fiscal stimulus in the EU even with the sleight-of-hand trick of hiding the spending in inflation and negative real returns on low-yielding Superfund bonds that are actually EU bonds in disguise. At the same the younger generation enjoys a stronger job market and less unfair tax burdens as the system proves such a success that income taxes are lowered progressively. Market impact: Bond yields harmonise across Europe, leading to German Bunds underperforming. EU defence, construction and new energy companies are some of the best performers. 6. Women’s Reddit Army takes on the corporate patriarchy Summary: Mimicking the meme stock Reddit Army tactics of 2020-21, a group of women traders launch a coordinated assault on companies with weak records on gender equality, leading to huge swings in equity prices for targeted companies. Women are not willing to wait any longer. Tired of the lack of progress, 2022 sees a massive grass-roots effort based on social media platforms to force companies that break civil rights laws to address unfair and sexist, racist, ageist and ableist practices. Although women have been struggling with lower salaries, they have higher saving rates than men. Those savings will now come in handy as they decide to take the situation into their own hands and throw their considerable influence around in a #metoo movement in financial markets. In contrast to the often-nihilistic original Reddit Army, the Women’s Reddit Army will be more sophisticated, with women traders coordinating a long squeeze by shorting stocks of selected patriarch companies. At the same time, they will direct funds to companies with the best metrics on female representation in middle management and among executives. Instead of condemning the development, politicians worldwide welcome and support their cause, putting even more pressure on companies with outdated patriarchal attitudes, poor gender equality in pay, and under-representation of women on boards and in management to address the errors of their ways. Market impact: The movement gets real results as the broader market catches on to the theme and joins in, forcing targeted company prices sharply lower, which sees companies scrambling to change their ways. It marks the beginning of a gender parity renaissance in markets. 7. India joins the Gulf Cooperation Council as a non-voting member Summary: The world’s geopolitical alliances will lurch into a phase of drastic realignment as we have an ugly cocktail of new deglobalising geopolitics and much higher energy prices. Countries reliant on imports for the majority of their energy inputs in a rapidly deglobalising world will need to move fast to strategically reorientate strategic alliances and secure long-term energy supplies. One such alliance could involve India, with its mighty technology sector, joining the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) as non-voting member, or in some sort of free trade zone. This alliance would see a reduction in India’s energy insecurity as it secures long-term import commitments. Interregional trading zones will secure “closer to home” production and investment, combined with the security of reliable supplies from India’s point of view, and a reliable destination market from the GCC’s point of view. The alliance helps lay the groundwork for the GCC countries to plan for their future beyond oil and gas and for India to accelerate its development via huge new investments in infrastructure and improvements in agricultural productivity together with fossil fuel imports, bridging the way to a post-carbon longer-term future. Market impact: The Indian rupee proves far more resilient than its EM peers in a volatile year for markets. The bubbly Indian stock market corrects with other equity markets in early 2022 but proves a strong relative performer from the intra-year lows. 8. Spotify disrupted due to NFT-based digital rights platform Summary: Musicians are ready for change as the current music streaming paradigm means that labels and streaming platforms capture 75-95 percent of revenue paid for listening to streamed music. In 2022, new blockchain-based technology will help them grab back their fair share of industry revenues. While the early days of NFTs have looked chaotic and dangerous for asset buyers, the outlook is bright for NFT technology. Not only does an NFT-based platform offer a new way to verify the ownership of rights, but also a way to distribute rights without intermediaries, i.e., a completely decentralised system obviating the need for a centralised platform. The use case for NFTs could prove particularly compelling in the next step for the technology for content generators in the music industry as musicians feel unfairly treated by the revenue sharing models of the current streaming platforms like Spotify and Apple Music. These models don’t guide individual subscribers’ fees to the actual music an individual subscriber listens to. Rather, all subscription fee revenues are aggregated and distributed based on every artist’s share of total streams. In addition, the platforms take a substantial cut, which together with the cut paid to labels is some 75 percent or more of the total revenue. In 2022, an NFT-based service takes hold and begins offering music from notable stars – perhaps the likes of Katy Perry, The Chainsmokers and Jason Derulo, all of whom have recently backed an effort to create a new blockchain-powered streaming platform. Other well-known artists begin pulling their music from the now “traditional” streaming platforms, which suddenly find themselves terminally disrupted. Investors see the eventual writing on the wall for podcasts, movies and other forms of digitisable contents as well. Market impact: Investors recognise that Spotify’s future is bleak, sending its shares down 33 percent in 2022. 9. New hypersonic tech drives space race and new cold war Summary: The latest hypersonic missile tests are driving a widening sense of insecurity as this tech renders legacy conventional and even nuclear military hardware obsolete. In 2022 a massive hypersonic arms race develops among major militaries as no country wants to feel left behind. In 2022, it is clear from funding priorities that hypersonics and space are the heart of a new phase of the deepening rivalry between the US and China on all fronts—economic and military. Other major powers with advanced military tech join in as well, likely including Russia, India, Israel and the EU. Hypersonic capabilities represent a game-changing threat to the long-standing military strategic status quo, as the technology brings asymmetric new defensive and offensive capabilities that upset the two massive pillars of military strategy of recent decades. The first is the potential for devastating hypersonic tech defence against the conventional attack capabilities of long-range bombing aircraft, as well as the so-called “deep water” navy of ships that can bring the fight to any corner of the globe without refuelling. The second pillar of the old Cold War era was the principle of mutually assured destruction (MAD) in the event of nuclear war, under which it was pointless to launch a nuclear war as long as there was still time for the opponent to launch an equally destructive ICBM counterattack from land- and submarine-based ballistic missiles. But the speed and agility of hypersonic tech introduces the belief that superior defence could thwart an attack entirely and even allow for new first-strike capabilities. Market impact: massive funding for companies like Raytheon that build hypersonic tech with space delivery capabilities and underperformance of “expensive conventional hardware” companies in the aircraft and ship-building side of the military hardware equation. 10. Medical breakthrough extends average life expectancy 25 years Summary: Young forever, or for at least a lot longer. In 2022, a key breakthrough in biomedicine brings the prospect of extending productive adulthood and the average life expectancy by up to 25 years, prompting projected ethical, environmental and fiscal crises of epic proportions. The year 2022 sees a breakthrough from a multi-factor approach, as a cocktail of treatments is put together that tweaks cell-level processes in order to extend their life and thus the life of the organism composed of those cells. It’s not cheap, but it’s effective and has already been demonstrated on laboratory mice containing human DNA, extending their lives some 30% and more. The prospect of a massive leap in human quality of life and life expectancy are huge wins for mankind but bring an enormous ethical and financial quandary. Imagine that almost everyone can look forward to living to an average age of 115 and more healthily. What would this mean for private and government pensions, or even the ability or desire to retire? And what about the cost to the planet if it is set to support billions more people, not to mention whether or not there is enough food to go around? And then there is the ethical question of whether it is humane to not make the cocktail available to everyone. In short, how would our value systems, political systems and planet cope?

The US dollar turned in a solid week's performance, rising against most currencies and recording a marginal new high for the year against the euro.  Sterling and the Australian dollar competed for the worst performer.  Both central banks pushed against market expectations for aggressive near-term tightening.  The central banks triggered a short squeeze in the bond market, where 10-year benchmark yields from 10 bp in the US to 34 bp in Italy.  UK 10-year Gilts and French Oats yields fell nearly 22 bp.  Germany lagged with an almost 18 bp decline.  The speculative market had its largest net short Treasury note futures position since March 2020.  It has swung from its largest net long position in four years (~181k contracts) in early October to a net short position of almost 270k as of November 2.  The macro focus shifts back to inflation next week with American and Chinese reports.  Rising inflation in the world's two largest economies may arrest the rally in the bond markets. We anticipated the dollar to move broadly higher this month, and the move we envision does not appear over.  However, important support has been approached in a sharp thrust that has penetrated Bollinger Bands, suggesting some patience may be needed.  The dollar did close relatively softly, especially given the stronger than expected employment report.   Dollar Index: A new high for the year was recorded after the employment report was slightly above 94.60.  The momentum indicators are trending higher, and the five-day moving average crossed back above the 20-day moving average.  Recall that the 94.50 area is (38.2%) retracement of the sell-off since the March 2020 peak (~103).  The high from last September was closer to 94.75, but above there, nothing stands out until the 95.70-96.10 band. Yet ahead of the weekend, it finished poorly and formed a potential bearish shooting star candlestick.  Initial support is seen around 93.80.   Euro:   The single currency was virtually flat last week, but it does not hide the fact that a new low for the year (~$1.1515) was recorded.  The MACD and Slow Stochastic are moving lower, and the price action has been poor.  The $1.1490 area corresponds to the (50%) retracement objective of the rally from the March 2020 low (~$1.0635).  The next retracement (61.8%) is found a little below $1.13.  The euro finished on a firm note near session highs, suggesting scope for some corrective gains at the start of the new week. The new momentum shorts are frustrated with the lack of follow-through and maybe in weak hands.  A close above $1.1620 would lift the technical tone.  Japanese Yen:  The Japanese yen was the strongest of the major currencies, gaining an inconsequential 0.25% against the dollar.  The decline in US rates helped drag the dollar lower against the yen.  In terms of market positioning, short-yen carry trades had become momentum trades, too and the unwind was also supportive of the yen.   The dollar-yen exchange rate continues to track US 10-year yields.  The 10-year yield fell below 1.50% for the first time in a month ahead of the weekend, and the dollar made a new low for the week near JPY113.30.  Recall that in the big picture, we have suggested a range-trading affair between around JPY113.00 and JPY114.50-JPY115.00.  That still seems reasonable.  However, we note the dollar's momentum is flagging, and the five-day moving average slipped below the 20-day for the first time since late September.   The Slow Stochastic and MACD are trending lower.  A break of JPY113.00 signals the next leg down into the JPY112.00-JPY112.50 band.  British Pound: After the Bank of England confounded market expectations, sterling was spanked, falling more than 1% for only the second time this year (the other was on September 28, which arguably was more of a dollar move).  Expectations, partly facilitated by official comments, for tighter monetary policy spurred a roughly 4.3-cent rally in sterling last month.  If the BOE is saying, "sorrow about the mate, you misunderstood the conditionality and our job," it seems only fitting that sterling return to the late-September low near $1.3400.  It did so ahead of the weekend to $1.3425.  Ahead of the weekend, it settled below the lower Bollinger Band for the second consecutive session.  The momentum indicators are still falling. However, it managed to close near session highs, and a potential hammer candlestick may have been formed.  However, if $1.34 does not hold, it is difficult to find much chart support ahead of the $1.3165-$1.3200 area should $1.3400 be convincingly broken.  Canadian Dollar:  The Canadian dollar fared better than the other dollar-bloc currencies but still lost about 0.5% against the US dollar.  Since meeting the head and shoulders objective near CAD1.23, the US dollar has been consolidating and forming a rounded bottom.  The five-day moving average crossed back above the 20-day for the first time in a month.  The greenback finished the week bumping against the 200-day moving average (CAD1.2480), while the momentum indicators suggest there is more to come.  A retracement (38.2%) of the greenback's slide since September 20 high (~CAD1.29) is found near CAD1.2520, and the next retracement (50%) is slightly below the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern (~CAD1.2600).     Australian Dollar:  The Australian dollar's pullback has been more profound than the other majors.  It dropped almost 2.6% from the late October higher (~$0.7555), which was its best level since early July, and retraced half of last month's rally at the pre-weekend low (~$0.7360).  The momentum indicators are still falling, and the five and 20-day moving averages have crossed for the first time in nearly a month.  The next (61.8%) retracement target is closer to $0.7315.  Still, it closed firmly and with a possible bullish hammer candlestick, suggesting a bounce early next week is likely. The $0.7430-$0.7450 area may be the first important hurdle.  The Reserve Bank of Australia, like many other central banks, is emphasizing labor market developments in their forward guidance. Given the gap between what the RBA is saying (no hike likely until 2024) and what the market is saying (the swaps market implies nearly 70 bp of tightening over the next 12 months), next week's October jobs data may have greater impact.  Australia lost almost 285k jobs in August and September amid the lockdown.  A modest recovery is expected. In fact, the worst was probably in August. Full-time positions increased by almost 27k in September.   Mexican Peso:   The peso staged a brilliant recovery last week, but only after first falling to its lowest level since March.  The fall in US rates helped take pressure off the peso and emerging markets more broadly.  The strong US employment report bolstered risk appetites and lifted the JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index, which had been lower on the week, ahead of the data.  The dovish FOMC tapering announcement saw the dollar record a key downside reversal against the peso by reversing lower after making new highs and closing below the previous session's low.  Modest follow-through selling pushed the dollar through the (61.8%) retracement objective (~MXN20.46) of the rally that had begun in late October (from ~MXN20.21), ahead of the FOMC meeting and jobs report.  Before the weekend, it settled at the lows for the week (~MXN20.30).  Initial support is seen near MXN20.20.  The central bank meets next week (November 11).  Most expect a 25 bp hike, but an acceleration in CPI last month ( to be reported on November 9) may boost the risk of a 50 bp move.   Chinese Yuan:  The yuan's 2% gain this year puts it in third place globally, behind the Russian ruble (4.5%) and the Canadian dollar (2.3%).  The yuan has drifted higher in recent weeks.  It has risen for the past three months for a cumulative gain of a little less than 1%.  For the past several weeks, the PBOC consistently set the dollar's reference rate above market expectations (median projection in Bloomberg's survey) but did not do so ahead of the weekend.  Last week the dollar traded quietly within the range seen in the past two weeks.  The dollar recorded four-month lows in October in front of CNY6.38.  Given the official penchant for stability, the issue now is the upper end of the range, and it seems to be CNY6.40-CNY6.41.  Since late September, the dollar has not settled above the 20-day moving average (~CNY6.4075), the middle of the Bollinger Bands.  China's 10-year bond yields peaked in mid-October near 3.05% and last week finished below 2.90% for the first time in several weeks. It is the only country whose 10-year yield has fallen this year (~25 bp).  The October inflation gauges are the market's focus, but trade and lending figures may generate more insight into the economic drivers.   Disclaimer

XAUUSD tests key support Gold treads water as markets await US jobs data release. The metal remains under pressure after it failed to maintain bids above 1780. Sellers are testing the daily support at 1760. A bearish breakout would shatter hopes of a swift rebound and send the price to last September’s low at 1725. That move could then threaten the integrity of the uptrend on a longer timeframe. 1806 is a fresh resistance and sellers could be waiting to double down at a better price. On the upside, a bullish breakout may propel the metal to 1845. EURUSD attempts bullish reversal The euro recoups losses as traders reposition ahead of today’s nonfarm payrolls. A bullish RSI divergence indicates a slowdown in the bearish push. The pair has found support near June 2020’s lows around 1.1190. Then successive breaks above 1.1270 and 1.1370 have prompted short interests to bail, paving the way for a potential reversal. 1.1460 next to the 30-day moving average would be the target and its breach may turn sentiment around. 1.1240 is a key support to keep the rebound relevant. US 500 heads towards daily support The S&P 500 continues on its way down as investors jump ship amid the omicron scare. The latest rebound has been capped by 4650, a sign that the bears are in control of short-term price action. A combination of pessimism and lack of buying interest means that the index is stuck in a bearish spiral. An oversold RSI may cause a limited rebound as intraday sellers cover their positions. 4450 at the origin of a previous bullish breakout would be the next target. 4360 is a second line of defense that sits in a daily demand zone.

S&P 500 gave up sharp intraday gains on the first Omicron patient in CA. Corona packing punch still, and sending TLT far above yesterday‘s highs while the dollar remained unchanged. That‘s as risk-off as can be on a little surprising headline – the key difference is though that the Fed doesn‘t have the back of buy the dippers this time. The accelerated taper noises coupled with demand destruction thanks to Omicron, is delivering an inflation repreive. Make no mistake though, should demand be choked off too hard, fresh stimulus would have to come – for now in the heat increasingly being turned on, practically all asset classes suffer to varying degrees. The market isn‘t yet at a stage of sniffing out fresh stimulus countering the destructive policy effects which are being felt currently. Economic activity around the world hasn‘t been hampered, but markets are willing to err on the pessimistic side. For now and still – only when the riskier debt instruments such as HYG turn up to deal with the prior downswing, would be a reason to cheer for animal spirits returning. That idea sounds though hollow at this time. The bears have the upper hand unless proven otherwise – that is, by a close in the 4670s. Which is what the title says... Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 breaking below the 50-day moving average, and taking time consolidating below, isn‘t bullish at all. The reversal was broad based, arguably hitting value more. Yes, market breadth is dismal. Credit Markets Positive HYG divergence is gone – the broad underperformance of S&P 500 must be reversed first to make stock market upswings trustworthy. It remains unclear how much would HYG be able to rebound when quality debt instruments cool off. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals weakness remains, but isn‘t convincing enough to short the market, no. The coming reversal to the upside would be ferocious, but we aren‘t there yet. Crude Oil Crude oil plunge is slowing down, and it‘s more than black gold that‘s looking for direction here – this concerns the commodities complex as such. I‘m looking for copper to show the way, and oil to follow. Copper Copper is sitting at a rising support line, undecided yet whether to take the Fed and Omicron threats seriously or not. It‘s wait and see for now, but the bullish side has the medium-term upper hand. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are cautious as well, but the bears are looking for an ambush – let‘s see how far they can get. Summary The ugly S&P 500 close concerns both value and tech – and there was no premarket upswing to speak of. The bears have the upper hand for today as markets look to be in the phase of sell first, ask questions later. Any reversal (in stocks or commodities) has to be accompanied by a credible upswing in riskier bonds, ideally with money coming out of the dollar as well. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

USDCHF to test key support The US dollar stabilized after Jerome Powell hinted at speeding up the taper pace. The break below 0.9270 has put the rally on hold. The support has turned into resistance with the latest rebound fading. But a bullish divergence suggests a loss of momentum in the retracement as the price approaches 0.9140. Buying could be expected in this demand zone around November’s low 0.9100. Sentiment remains upbeat as long as the greenback is above this level. A bounce above 0.9270 may resume the uptrend. XAGUSD remains under pressure Silver struggled after US Treasury yields jumped on Fed’s hawkish tilt. A bearish MA cross on the daily chart indicates a deterioration in the market mood after a drop below the floor at 23.00. An oversold RSI caused a limited rebound which was then capped by 23.30. This was a sign that the bears were still in control of the direction. The psychological level of 22.00 is the next support. Its breach would lead to September’s lows at 21.50, an important level to keep the metal afloat in the medium term. USOIL tests major demand zone WTI crude inches higher as OPEC+ discuss whether to let additional output flow as previously planned. The price is hovering above a major demand zone between 62.00 and 64.00. A bullish RSI divergence indicates that the selling pressure might have eased. A rally above 71.20 could force the short side to cover and bring in more buying momentum. Then 76.00 would be the next hurdle before a full-blown recovery. On the downside, a bearish breakout could trigger a broader sell-off and potentially derail a 19-month long rally.

The most obvious first step is: “How much?” Depending on your time horizon and if your approach is purely diversification for your overall portfolio, a percentage of total investment capital needs to be set. This percentage should be higher on a more aggressive wealth preservation strategy and higher expected returns on beating inflation. Another aspect is if silver is traded as the only hedge or alongside other precious metals. Silver already has a leverage factor in relationship to gold. For example, gold’s response to covid was a 37% up move, while silver moved up 80%. This volatility leverage works both ways, increasing the risk for silver if not purchased on low-risk entry points and traded with appropriate money management. We have pointed out various reasons why we find silver an extremely attractive play long term in this year’s chart book releases. Monthly chart (a week ago), Silver in US-Dollar, ready: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 26th, 2021. The above chart was posted in our last week’s publication. We wrote:” The monthly chart shows a high likelihood for November’s candle closing as an inverted hammer. Consequently, it provides for silver prices approaching the low end of the last 17-month sideways range near US$22.” Monthly chart, Silver in US-Dollar, set: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of December 3rd, 2021. We were spot on. The anticipated entry zone has been reached. We added to our physical holdings and shared the trade live in our free Telegram channel. Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, silver: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of December 3rd, 2021. We asked, “how much?” and in what diversification, which leaves us with the question of what denomination. The rule of thumb is that the smaller the weight amount is and the more recognizable the brand, the higher the cost. In addition, valuable numismatic collector’s coins have premiums as well. Generally, we find the added cost of brand items (Canadian maple leaf, American eagles, Austrian Philharmonic, and alike) to be of value since it adds to liquidity at a time of sale. While we would stay away from the added cost of numismatic collectible coins, we find there to be value to have a mix of coins and larger bars to arrive at a reasonably low-cost basis with a high degree of liquidity at the time of sale (larger bars are harder to sell than one-ounce coins). The weekly chart above illustrates that as much as we have entered the “shopping zone” for silver, there is a probability that we might see a quick spike down as we have seen at the end of September. As pointed out in the previous chart book, the goal of physical acquisition should not be the ultimate lowest price but availability and execution itself. We make a point of this, especially since we noticed that physical acquisition prices have in percentage retraced much less than the spot price right here, and once the turn is complete, could proportionally faster jolt up. Silver in US-Dollar, quarterly chart, go: Silver in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of December 3rd, 2021. It is essential to have an exit strategy in place before entry. These exit projections are necessary to measure risk/reward-ratios. Moreover, with the entire plan clear, there will be no debate while in the trade. This part of exit psychology is often overlooked, but a low-risk entry point alone does not provide a good strategy. We expect a price advance on silver within the next six to eight quarters to a price target of US$74.40! Significant profits allowing for an outstanding risk/reward-ratio. Ready, set, silver, go: Last week, we anticipated the market’s direction correctly and find ourselves now at the desired low-risk entry zone. With possible additional questions about physical acquisition answered today, we might have reduced doubt. The devil is in the details, and due to the various countries, their taxation law, and the wide variety of official precious metal dealers, we did not dive into the details on where to take possession of your possibly desired purchase.  Nevertheless, our multinational membership in our free Telegram channel might provide helpful information to your specific situation. We hope we have provided enough knowledge to erase doubt. We encourage participation since we see procrastination towards a wealth preservation strategy as the poorest choice in this challenging time for your hard-earned money. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|December 3rd, 2021|Tags: Crack-Up-Boom, Gold, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

Brazilian market index Bovespa earlier this week came close to the psychologically crucial round level 100,000, having lost around 23% from its peak six months ago. Despite this backdrop, the Brazilian market looks too depressed and is already showing some signs of recovery. Wednesday and Thursday's intraday dips met increasing demand with a noticeable 3.7% gain on Thursday. In addition, the Brazilian index outperforming its EM peers in recent days. The technical picture supports the idea of an imminent reversal to the upside or that it may have even already started yesterday. The RSI on the weekly charts has returned from the oversold territory - a signal of a potential rebound or reversal to growth. The divergence between the RSI and the index confirms the bullish sentiment, reflecting the reduced pressure on the Brazilian stocks. The positive dynamics of foreign indices are also on the buyers' side. Chinese indices have stopped falling since the beginning of the month, bouncing back from multi-month lows. US benchmarks gained support on Thursday, surfacing after briefly dipping below critical levels. Brazilian and many other markets look very attractive for downside buying without a principal reversal in US equities.

Forex 2021-12-03 13:28 4 minutes to read Summary:  A look across FX shows many of the usual suspects weakening with the recent bout of risk aversion, with commodity currencies near important levels versus the US dollar. While the JPY has traded erratically of late on conflicting themes and has not shown its safe haven status of yore, the Swiss franc has, managing to thrive when the focus is on inflation and when it is on weak risk sentiment as the SNB seems to have quietly stepped away from reining in franc strength. FX Trading focus: EURCHF lower has been the Teflon trade The most consistent trending pair in G10 FX of late has been the slide in EURCHF, which has even slipped below the prior six-plus-year low near 1.0500 over the last week. Remarkably, the pair has maintained its consistent ride lower through some remarkable jolts in the background, including the more hawkish shift from the Fed and the omicron news. This may suggest that the move is not being driven by strong speculative flows – which might have shown significant volatility in line with other currency pairs recently, but rather by consistent flows as the Swiss National Bank has apparently stepped away from the assumed stout defense of the 1.0500 level. The last two weeks of sight deposit data have shown no growth, i.e., no signs that the SNB is leaning against this move after doing so the prior four weeks. Also, when inflation fears dominate as they have at times recently, CHF strength is an easy way to avoid importing inflation without rocking the boat with monetary policy signals, while CHF strength is also a natural safe haven play when volatility spikes as it has in recent weeks. The consistent trend may be set to extend here, with parity in EURCHF a natural target. Elsewhere in FX, most of the smaller currencies are lining up on the usual risk-on, risk-off fault-lines, with commodities currencies and Scandies all weak as sentiment has softened again today, although it will be interesting to see if oil prices can make a stand after the reversal of the sharp sell-off yesterday despite nominally bearish news. Big next levels coming into view include 1.3000 in USDCAD and 0.7000 in AUDUSD. On the strong side, the EUR, USD and JPY are jockeying for the upper hand in addition to the strong CHF noted. The reaction function around today’s US jobs report (can a strong average hourly earnings add further energy to Fed upside expectations on top of an already momentous shift, and how much will residual omicron uncertainty hold back that pricing for now?). Chart: EURCHFEURCHF has weakened steadily since mid September in line with the weakening in EURUSD, but far more steadily than the latter, as this trend has managed to sustain through recent volatility elsewhere and shifting focus. The technical situation is without remarkable variation and there are no signs that the SNB is leaning against the move of late. Could the move extend all the way to within reach of parity? Source: Saxo Group Elsewhere, notable BoE hawk Michael Saunders was cautious sounding in comments today on the omicron variant uncertainty, prompting the sharp slide in sterling today. He said that the omicron development is a key consideration for whether to hike in December and sees some advantages in the BoE waiting for omicron data, which may sideline any hike potential at the December 16 meeting, with the market currently putting low odds on a move (difficult to measure – the idea has developed that the BoE will hike 15 bps to 0.25%, with about a 5-7 bps of hiking priced). Saunders still favors policy tightening soon and said today that the rate rise would be limited if the BoE gets going soon. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strengthThe impressive CHF rising nearly all the way to the top of the table here, as the left/right split of the G10 currencies is nearly perfect, with all of the five “smalls” in the red, most of them deeply so. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.Plenty of bright orange readings in the daily ATR shadings – these indicate very significant volatility relative to the last 1000 trading days (top 10% ranking), , while it is interesting to note something like the EURUSD supermajor still trading with still quite low intraday volatility. AUDNZD is trying to flip back to negative, while USDCHF and USDJPY have yet to follow through lower after their recent flips to the negative in the “trend” reading. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1300 – ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane to speak 1330 – US Nov. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 1330 – US Nov. Average Hourly Earnings 1330 – US Nov. Unemployment Rate 1330 – Canada Nov. Net Change in Employment 1330 – Canada Nov. Unemployment Rate 1415 – US Fed’s Bullard (voter in 2022) to speak 1500 – US Nov. ISM Services  1500 – US Nov. Factory Orders

In November, The US economy created 210K jobs, a shockingly low number compared with the expected 550K. And this is the weakest increase since January.This indicator noted a close correlation with the dynamics of new coronavirus cases, which are also at their highest since the beginning of the year in the USA.Average hourly earnings rose by 0.3%, maintaining the annual rate of 4.8% and falling short of expectations of a rise to 5.0%. It will not be surprising if policymakers comment in the coming days to raise the question of whether the recovery is losing steam. This is a negative surprise for the dollar as it reduces the pressure on the Fed with accelerated unwinding and faster rate hikes.The unemployment rate and the share of the economically active population, measured differently, contrasting sharply with the data above, marking a significant improvement. The unemployment rate has collapsed from 4.6% to 4.2%. This is a return to the multi-year norm, indicating a full labour market recovery. Notably, however, the economically active population has risen to 61.8%, indicating that the fall in unemployment is not the result of a shrinking labour force.Traditionally, markets pay more attention to month-on-month changes in employment numbers, but in this case, the effect of this extremely weak NFP data is balanced by a healthy, low unemployment rate.

  Entry… triggered! The price rallies to the Moon, but you don’t want to cash out “just yet” - am I right? So, let’s see how to prevent hard landing. There are obviously several methods to assess risk and thus to manage it, depending on one’s risk appetite or what is also more commonly known as risk profile. One method I use on swing (longer-term) trades is to manually lift my stop once – at least – 50% of the first target has been reached on a swing trade. I provide such trades on Sunshine Profits based on the projections I draw. Let’s take a practical case: in my last trade position on WTI crude oil provided on Nov-30, the market found a floor around $66. Then after being pushed up by the bulls, it rebounded onto that support level ($65.70-66.21), and rallied up to $69.49. So, if we take our reference entry in the middle of the yellow band at $66, the market moved up exactly 70% of the total distance to the target 1. At this point, to avoid giving profits away, an option would be to lift the stop to net breakeven ($66 + commissions/fees) so that the risk for that trade could get offset once 50% of the distance to the target 1 is passed. Following that, if, for example, the market pursues its rally further – let’s say up to 60% – then the stop will be lifted to net breakeven + 10% of the distance to the target 1. In our case the market rallied up to 70% of the distance to the target 1, so the stop should be lifted to net breakeven + 20% of the distance to the target 1. From my experience, this may represent a good way to manually trail your stop. Of course, there are many different methods to do so, but I haven’t heard of many investors or traders mentioning that one, therefore I wanted to present it here. The following chart is the one I posted in my trade review published on Wednesday, the 1st of December: WTI Crude Oil (CLF22) Futures (January contract, daily chart from Dec-1) To better visualize the price action that occurred, we zoomed into the 4-hour chart: WTI Crude Oil (CLF22) Futures (January contract, 4H chart from Dec-1) As you can see, the level provided was optimum given its function to act as a floor for rebounding prices. Then, the market was up to 70% of the total distance to reach the target 1, and finally reverted back down to the stop level. Now, this is today’s chart: WTI Crude Oil (CLF22) Futures (January contract, daily chart) Again, a zoom into the 4H chart lets us see more details of the price action that occurred: WTI Crude Oil (CLF22) Futures (January contract, 4H chart) In summary, using such a method of risk management to keep intermediate profits before the trade reverts strongly to the downside might be a good idea, particularly during high volatility periods. Are you interested in seeing this strategy in action? Make sure to check my Oil Trading Alerts! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Omicron: In today’s weekly I’ll be dedicating some digital ink for the latest information on the new variant omicron. Ok so what are the major points of importance. New admissions to hospitals in Gauteng increased by 144% last week (hospitalisations lag cases by around 1-3 weeks). So far the early data shows the majority of these hospitalisations are from the unvaccinated (if that trend remains that’s positive). However, a recent study released from South Africa indicates reinfection risk is 3 times higher than previous variants. In terms of the deadliness of this variant, the early data looks good with Australia’s Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly stating that of the 300 cases recorded worldwide all were very mild or had no symptoms at all. However, the sample size is too small so we can’t draw solid conclusions at this stage. The major vaccine makers have offered timelines of two to six weeks for assessing the vaccine escape properties of omicron via in-vitro lab tests. Interestingly, Moderna is less optimistic than Pfizer about expecting current vaccines needing to be tweaked to fend off the omicron variant. Volatility will remain high as the market remains on tenterhooks as new information drips through. Dollar Index (DXY): The greenback is flat on the week, with many quite perplexed by the lack of gains (particularly against the euro) given the hawkish Fed pivot and risk sentiment remaining on edge. The dollar coming in flat is a combination of gains against high-beta cyclical companies offset by losses against traditional safe haven currencies. Just take a look at the charts of USDJPY and AUDUSD. In terms of the euro, I’ll chat more about that below in the EURUSD paragraph. The big domestic news for the dollar this week was Jerome Powell’s hawkish rhetoric. The word transitory is to be retired as he admits the threat of persistently higher inflation has grown. On the QE purchases side of things, he remains open to it being wrapped up earlier than originally expected with a discussion on a faster pace taking place in 2 weeks at their December meeting. He elucidated his thoughts on the employment side of their mandate, stating that a great labour market requires a protracted expansion and in order to achieve this price stability has to occur. I see this as inflation now taking primacy over employment goals, indicating a shift in the Fed’s thinking with regards to inflationary pressures. The hawkish commentary from FOMC members this week such as Daly, Quarles, Barkin and Bostic would certainly suggest this is the case. STIRs are showing rate lift-off for practically June 2022 (96%) and over 2.5 hikes through December 2022. All attention now falls to the Non-Farm Payrolls number out today. The preliminary indicator such as ISM manufacturing index, ADP and jobless claims all pointing towards decent numbers from the jobs report today disappointed as NFP numbers missed expectations by a significant amount. Price moves have been muted as traders may be reluctant to place any fresh positions on and chase with the risk of adverse news over the weekend regarding omicron. Bottom line - traders should expect cross-asset volatility to remain higher over December. Next week we’ll receive November US inflation data, which is expected to remain elevated. DXY has regained the upper trend line of its ascending channel, putting some distance between price and its moving averages. The 21-day EMA continues to provide some dynamic support to price dips. The RSI has held above the key 55 level of support. Targets wise keep an eye out on the 96.5 on the upside and to the downside the 21-day EMA and former support around 95.5. EURUSD: So why did EURUSD strengthen on the market sell-off due to omicron on Friday and has remained fairly defensive throughout this week? It’s certainly not because the euro is a safe-haven currency in times of risk aversion. This price action has more to do with its use as a funding currency. Traders borrow euros to search for higher yield globally which is a decent strategy when risk conditions are favourable, however, when that risk dial flips in other direction we see the typical carry trade unwind, leading to flows back into the euro. Additionally, because expectations for rate hikes with regards to the eurozone are already significantly low, it’s at much less risk of a dovish repricing working favourably in terms of spread differentials with the dollar. Political pressure is rising on the ECB to act, particularly from Germany. A Reuters article out mid-week pointed towards some members wanting to rather hold off declaring their asset purchase intentions at this December meeting due to uncertainty caused by omicron. However, the ECB's Muller stated that he doesn’t think omicron is a reason to shift the scheduled end date for PEPP. Following this line of thought just today Madame Lagarde expressed that she feels certain that PEPP will cease in March as planned, saying markets require clarity in December. On the data front we had better than expected inflation prints from Germany (5.2% YoY) and the eurozone (4.9% YoY). It’s quiet in terms of economic data next week with the ZEW survey out as we lead up to a crucial ECB meeting in two weeks. EURUSD is drifting lower from its 21-day EMA. The RSI has stalled around the 40 level. Looking at the technicals clearly EURUSD is in a downtrend. Rallies in my opinion should be short lived with sellers coming in. Key levels to monitor in both directions are 1.135 (21-day EMA) and on the downside 1.12. GBPUSD: With a vacuum of economic data for the UK, the words of central bankers took centre stage. Bailey didn’t provide much meat at his speech this Wednesday. However, Saunders (leans hawkish) who spoke today has caused a repricing lower in the probability of a 15bps rate hike come December (only an additional 4bps now from around 8bps pre-speech). He expressed the need for potentially taking a patient approach with the uncertainty from omicron. Cable is lower as a result. On the virus front, the UK regulator has given the green light for booster doses to be offered to all adults. Additionally, the government has signed a contract for 114 million vaccine doses from Pfizer and Moderna, including access to modified vaccines if they're needed to tackle omicron and other future variants of concern. On the political front, domestically the Tories held the seat of Old Bexley and Sidcup, however, with a reduced majority. On Brexit, it’s been quiet of late with some optimism around the granting of additional fish licences to French fisherman in Guernsey, Jersey is the more important zone though prone to flare ups in tension. However, temperatures remain high between France and the UK on issues related to immigration. Next week sees UK October GDP data released. EURGBP has been moving higher on the back of dovish commentary (given he’s a hawk) from Saunders as well as benefiting from any souring in risk-sentiment. The 200-day SMA isn’t far aware, which has previously capped price gains. Cable continues to -plumb fresh YTD lows and is now nearing 1.32. The RSI is near to oversold territory but with some room remaining to eke out further losses. Moving averages are all pointing downwards. Targets wise, on the upside the 1.335 and above there former support around 1.34 (21-day EMA too). USDJPY: This pair continues to trade on US 10-year yield moves and now it’s status as a safe-haven currency has kicked back in. Early Friday morning has seen a bid coming in, which could be some pre NFP positioning on expectations of a move higher in the back end of the US yield curve. Put EURJPY on your radar, price is at a key support level around 128. USDJPY is finding support around its 50-day SMA, 113 round number and the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Price is trying to overcome resistance from the 50-day SMA. The former range support is providing some resistance around 113.5. The RSI is trying to get back into its range support around 46. Targets wise on the upside, 114 will be important and on the downside 112.5 (this week's lows). Gold: Gold has slipped below the $1775 support level as the hawkish fed leads to higher short term rates, kryptonite for the shiny yellow metal. Fears over inflation have failed to help gold stay propped up as well as risk-off fears from omicron. Inflation data out from the US next week will be a risk event for gold traders as well as the Fed meeting the following week. Today’s NFP hasn’t ignited much excitement in gold markets. Gold is trying to reclaim the $1775 support level. The 50-day SMA has made a very minor cross above the 200-day SMA. The 21-day EMA has been capping further gains. The RSI is in no man's land around 38. Targets wise, if $1775 is cleared then $1800 opens up (moving averages just below there). On the downside, $1750 comes into view. Oil: Crude fell sharply into a bear market this week as risk-off, Fed tightening, fears over further lockdowns and travel bans from the new omicron variant led to a repricing on the demand side of the equation. OPEC+ the main event for crude traders this week, decided to stick to their scheduled 400k bpd for January, but caveated this with the meeting remaining in “session”, meaning changes to the supply side could be made before their 4 January meeting if omicron causes a further deterioration. This led to yo-yo style price behaviour. Until there is more clarity regarding omicron, I expect oil’s price to remain choppy without a solid price trend. Backwardation spreads have narrowed, indicating a more balanced supply and demand equation. Iranian Nuclear Negotiations began the week positively, but sentiment turned pessimistic towards the end of this week, providing further short-term bullish tailwinds to crude’s price. JPM has some very bullish forecasts with the bank expecting crude to hit $150 by 2023. Oil is having a run at its 200-day SMA. The RSI has moved out of overbought territory and is a fair distance below its 50-day SMA (some mean reversion). Right now price will remain choppy within a range as omicron news flow prevents a trend from forming. Targets wise, on the upside the 200-day SMA and $73.50 dollar mark will be key. On the downside $68 support is important.

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie --- 629th Edition --- Monte-Carlo --- 04 December 2021 (published each Saturday) --- www.deMeadville.com In completing its 48th trading week of 2021, Gold settled yesterday (Friday) at 1784. 'Twas the eighth week this year that Gold has settled in the 1780s (the first occurrence being on 19 February). Indeed, Gold's median weekly settle price year-to-date is 1788. Yet as anybody engaged in the Gold Story knows, Gold first traded in the 1780s a decade ago on 09 August 2011, the U.S "M2" money supply that day at $9.5 trillion; (today 'tis $21.5 trillion). So to reprise that from the "You Cannot Be Wrong Dept.": should anyone ask you "off the cuff" what is the price of Gold, your instantaneous response of "1780" shall (so 'twould seem for the foreseeable future) not only be correct, but enhance your dazzling intellectual image. To reprise as well "The M Word" crowd, clearly their parking place of preference is Gold's 1780s. Of the 233 trading days year to date, 27 of Gold's closures exceeding 1800 have -- within the five ensuing trading days -- found price settle in the 1780s, or lower. "1800? SELL!" Sheesh... Gold's 1780s are driving us crazy! Regardless, Gold -- and moreover Silver -- are doing what markets do when their technicals turn negative: price goes down. Per our Market Magnets page, Gold from 1861 on 18 November found price then pierce down through its Magnet: "SELL!" From our Market Trends page, Gold from 1847 on 19 November found the "Baby Blues" of trend consistency begin to plummet: "SELL!" From our Market Values page, Gold from 1805 on 22 November crossed below its smooth valuation line: "SELL!" More mainstream technical signals have since followed to "SELL!" And recall -- just prior to it all in our anticipating near-term selling -- we nonetheless deemed the 1800s as "safe": "WRONG!" Having thus now driven you crazy, we obviously deem holding and buying Gold as "RIGHT!" especially as the stock market -- be this another false signal or otherwise -- finds the S&P 500 doing its dance of a snake in death throes. To be sure we've seen such before, only to see the Index magically survive, indeed thrive. You veteran readers of The Gold Update may recall some six years ago (on 23 January 2016) our characterizing the S&P as being in such "death throes", the ensuing three weeks then finding the Index fall 5% from a "live" price/earnings ratio of 43x; (today 'tis 47x). "But don't forget it's now time for the Santa Claus Rally, mmb..." Yet another conventional wisdom notion there, Squire, via your appreciated "leading comment". Irrespective of what "everybody says" and expects, Santa Claus doesn't always come to Wall Street. Since 1980, as measured yearly from 01-to-24 December, Santa has skipped gifting the stock market 11 times. "WHAT?" 'Tis true. For those of you scoring at home, the S&P recorded net losses across that festive stint in '80, '81, '83, '86, '96, '97, '00, '02, '08, '15 and '18, the latter being a 409-point (-14.8%) loss. (Advice to the stocking stuffer: buy coal ... nudge-nudge, wink-wink, elbow-elbow). Moreover, have you been monitoring the major market dislocations of late? Talk about the maligning of conventional wisdom! In yesterday's session, the €uro, Swiss Franc, ¥en -- and yes the Dollar Index too -- all closed higher. "WHAT?" 'Tis true. Still, even as there is Dollar demand given the prospect of it paying a positive interest rate, the yield on the U.S. Treasury Bond continues to fall: 'twas 2.177% on 08 October, but is down now to 1.678%. In fact across our BEGOS Markets (Bond, Euro/Swiss, Gold/Silver/Copper, Oil, S&P 500), the price of the Bond is the only component with a positive 21-day linear regression trend. "WHAT?" 'Tis true. And then there's Oil: by our Market Values page, Black Gold settled yesterday 15 points below its smooth valuation line (66.22 vs. 81.51), even as Oil Inventories fell. "WHAT?" 'Tis true, (albeit OPEC is gonna keep a-pumpin'). Still, by that measure, Oil's price is massively, -- indeed deflationarily -- dislocated near-term from value. Too as noted, the Price of the S&P continues to be ridicously dislocated from the support of its Earnings; but if you get your dumbed-down P/E of 28.1x from the media, when 'tis honestly 47.4x, go ahead and say it: "WHAT?" 'Tis true. 'Course, the ongoing and most overwhelming dislocation is the price of Gold vis-à-vis our Scoreboard Dollar-debasement valuation (1784 vs. 4008). Say no more, Igor. A December to remember? Early on, 'tis the season to be dislocated. To which naturally (as subtly stated) we find Gold located in the 1780s. Why expect it to be anywhere else? So spot-on is Gold in the 1780s that per the following graphic of weekly price, the rightmost close is right on the dashed regression trendline. So are the 1780s driving you crazy, too? At least Gold's parabolic trend still is Long, although the aforementioned negative technicals have kept on the lid, (to say nothing of "The M Word" crowd?). Note as well the 79.1x reading of the Gold/Silver, ratio, essentially at a two-month high, the white metal having been terribly on the skids of late: Anything but skidding these last couple of months has been our Economic Barometer, it now having reached its highest oscillative level in better than three years. Whilst nominally last week's 13 incoming metrics were quite mixed, their overall effect net of prior period revisions and consensus expectations was to launch the Baro higher still as we here see: Amongst the improvers were November's Unemployment Rate and Average Workweek, plus both the Manufacturing and Services readings from the Institute for Supply Management, along with October's Construction Spending, Factory Orders and Pending Home Sales. However: November's ADP Employment data, Labor's Non-farm Payrolls and Hourly Earnings, the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index and the Conference Board's read on Consumer Confidence were all weaker. Therein, too, is the red line of the S&P 500, its aforementioned snaky death throes throwing the Index all over the place this past week. The S&P's intra-day runs were as follows: Mon +48, Tue -86, Wed -143, Thu +91, Fri -113. Want some perspective for that? The entire trading range of the S&P 500 for the year 2004 was less than this past Wednesday's session alone. "WHAT?" 'Tis true. 'Course, back in 2004, 'twas a greater percentage range, but at least the average P/E for that year was a "reasonable" (vs. today) 26.4x. Thus again is begged the question: "Has the S&P crashed yet?" Obviously not, but we're feelin' very leery 'bout January. "As goes January..."(although you regular readers know we've demonstrably debunked that conventional notion as well). BUT... As for the Federal Reserve's removing of the punch bowl, Atlanta FedPrez Raphael "Ready to Raise" Bostic again says its time to step up the Taper of Paper Caper, whilst FedGov Randal "Have No" Quarles says 'tis time for The Bank to prepare to raise. And as noted in last week's missive: were it not for the "Oh my! Omicron!" scare, we could well see a FedFunds rate hike in the FOMC's 26 January Policy Statement. So just keep wearing your masque such that everything's great, and in turn let the Fed increase its rate! Here's another positive from the "Good Is Bad Dept.": the StateSide government shan't run out of money this time 'round until 18 February. Low on dough? To Congress you go! Just ask TreaSec Yellen, for she's in the know! Ho-ho-ho... Either way, west of The Pond "inflation" remains the watchword -- or if you prefer the real word -- as the word "transitory" is being transited away. East of The Pond, the EuroZone (just 23 years young) sees its inflation level hitting record high levels; but should it be peaking, 'tis thought any European Central Bank rate rise shan't next year materialize. And lacking any upside mobility of late (duh) are our precious metals, the following two-panel graphic bearing along as butt ugly. On the left we've Gold's daily bars from three months ago-to-date, their cascading "Baby Blues" reinforcing price's downtrend, (although price never really departs the 1780s, right?). On the right similarly is the same story for Sister Silver, who clearly is suffering the ravages of DDS ("Dangerfield Disrespect Syndrome"), by which she's none too happy. For from the precious metals' respective highs of just three weeks back, Gold has dropped as much as -5.8% ... but Silver more than double that at -12.6%! "WHAT?" 'Tis true: Meanwhile, still dwellers in their Profile cellars are Gold (below left) and Silver (below right). Here is the entirety of their trading across the last two weeks, the high volume price apices as labeled. And that is a lot of overhead work to do: So after all of that, are you ready to tune out? You can't be so blamed. Gold's 1780s have got us all crazy! Puts us in mind of that iconic glamour rock hit by Sparks from back in '83 -- supportive of the film by the same name -- "Get Crazy"Tune it in on your radio dial: sure to bring a you a Golden Smile! Cheers! ...m... www.deMeadville.com

USDCHF struggles to bounce The US dollar softened after November’s nonfarm payrolls missed the mark. The pair has met stiff selling pressure at 0.9270, a former support that had turned into a resistance. The bullish RSI divergence suggests a slowdown in the sell-off though there is no confirmation yet for a sustainable bounce. 0.9120 is a key demand area on the daily timeframe and a bearish breakout would invalidate the November rebound. Buyers may switch sides as sentiment further deteriorates, exacerbating volatility to the downside. CADJPY breaks higher The Canadian dollar surged after November’s unemployment rate fell to 6%. A bearish MA cross on the daily chart still indicates a pessimistic mood. An oversold RSI on the hourly chart caused a limited bounce as short-term traders took profit. Sellers are eager to fade rebounds with the latest being at 89.20. 87.20 at the base of the October rally would be the next support. A deeper correction may send the loonie to 85.90. The bulls will need to lift said resistance before they could initiate a reversal. UK 100 attempts to rebound The FTSE 100 recouped some losses bolstered by a weaker US jobs report. The index saw buying interest over the psychological level of 7000 which sits in the daily demand zone. The RSI’s double-dip in the oversold area has attracted a ‘buying-the-dips’ crowd in this congestion area. A close above the immediate resistance at 7150 is an encouraging sign of a bullish attempt. 7310 is a major hurdle ahead, its breach could short circuit the correction. 7060 is the closest support in case of weakness in the rebound.

Equities 2021-12-06 13:30 5 minutes to read Summary:  Our Bubble Stocks and Crypto & Blockchain baskets are the two worst performing baskets this month as these pockets of the market are currently going through a big realignment in terms of expectations. The Fed's new objective of getting inflation under control will accelerate tapering and led to several rate hikes next year. Combined with a significant fiscal drag next year, US growth stocks will be hit by both lower growth and higher discount rate on cash flows, the worst of all combinations. This means that growth stocks that can show a credible upward sloping path on operating margin will fare much better whereas growth stocks that will fail in delivering higher operating margin will experience more trouble. Friday’s price action was not pretty. Despite strong economic figures from the US the 10-year yield declined and normally that would have been a positive for technology stocks, but instead Nasdaq 100 continued lower with our Bubble Stocks and Crypto & Blockchain baskets leading the declines. On Saturday, Bitcoin was down as much as 21.2% at the lows adding to the woes of these pockets of the market. We know from surveys that there is a large overlap in exposure between investors in growth/bubble stocks and cryptocurrencies and that it is people under the age of 35 that dominates the exposure. Source: Saxo GroupThe Crypto & Blockchain basket (see composition below) is down 12.7% in December making it the worst performer and if we see the Fed getting ahead of the curve hiking rates three times next year then it could take more steam out of the crypto industry. The recent high profiled listing of Bakkt through a SPAC is a crypto related company that we will soon release a more thorough analysis of. As the table below also show analysts remain bullish on the industry with a median price target 77% above current prices. The key risk for bubble stocks and crypto related assets this week is the US inflation report on Friday which could accelerate the market’s expectations of tapering and rate hikes if inflationary pressures remain stubbornly high. Name Segment Market Cap (USD mn.) Sales growth (%) Diff to PT (%) YTD return (%) 5yr return Coinbase Global Inc Crypto exchange 57,169 139.3 44.1 NA NA Signature Bank/New York NY Bank 18,487 9.7 22.2 128.2 110.5 MicroStrategy Inc Investment firm 6,896 5.1 38.5 62.4 218.0 Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd Crypto services 6,245 NA 83.5 128.3 1,213.0 Silvergate Capital Corp Bank 4,364 61.3 32.1 121.0 NA Marathon Digital Holdings Inc Crypto mining 4,274 4,562.5 64.1 298.9 57.7 Bakkt Holdings Inc (*) Digital assets platform 3,354 NA 114.9 29.3 NA Riot Blockchain Inc Crypto mining 3,339 1,497.4 90.3 68.6 659.6 Northern Data AG Infrastructure 2,523 62.7 20.7 26.8 NA Voyager Digital Ltd Crypto broker 2,105 8,169.3 83.1 234.0 NA Monex Group Inc Financial institution 1,827 75.3 50.4 111.2 182.7 Hut 8 Mining Corp Crypto mining 1,553 203.9 102.8 241.8 352.1 Hive Blockchain Technologies Ltd Crypto mining 1,216 395.3 NA 67.4 3,900.0 Bitfarms Ltd/Canada Crypto mining 1,194 7.0 57.0 220.0 NA Canaan Inc Infrastructure 1,040 225.5 NA 2.2 NA Stronghold Digital Mining Inc (*) Crypto mining 872 NA 132.3 NA NA Argo Blockchain PLC Crypto mining 690 131.5 127.5 236.4 NA Coinshares International Ltd (*) Digital asset management 586 NA -7.3 NA NA Bit Digital Inc Crypto mining 571 NA 69.9 -62.4 NA Bitcoin Group SE Crypto broker 236 138.7 187.4 -41.8 626.8 DMG Blockchain Solutions Inc Investment firm 128 2.7 104.1 58.1 1,533.3 Digihost Technology Inc Crypto mining 118 NA NA 100.7 NA Taal Distributed Information Technologies Inc Blockchain platform 105 NA 139.5 49.0 NA Future FinTech Group Inc Blockchain e-commerce 85 2,555.0 NA -35.1 -83.6 Quickbit EU AB Crypto payment services 59 -27.2 NA -18.1 NA Safello Group AB Crypto broker 17 NA NA NA NA Aggregate / median   119,055 135.1 76.5 68.0 352.1 Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group* Added to theme basket on 29 October 2021** Infrastructure segment means physical computing applications for crypto mining Growth stocks have a profitability problem more than a growth problem The selloff in growth stocks have many liquidity and technical characteristics, and the recent shift by the Fed to focus on getting inflation down is beacon of what to come. The Fed will accelerate its tapering of bond purchases and move more quickly on interest rates which means that the discount rate will go up while growth might face headwinds from higher interest rates and a fiscal drag (the fiscal deficit will shrink in 2022). This is a double whammy for growth stocks. DocuSign’s Q3 earnings release was portrayed as a problem of revenue growth but if you model the company’s shareholder value then you will see that the more sensitive parameter to its implied expectations is its future operating margin. While DocuSign lifted its operating margin to 3.1% for the quarter up from 0.5% in Q2 and -5.2% a year ago, it was still below expectations and that extends the trajectory for improving the operating margin and thus lowers the value of the company. Many growth companies will not have growth trajectories that will differ much from what is implied in current market values, and a downside miss is definitely not the biggest downside trigger on market value. The reality is that growth stocks are priced for high growth and then a hockey stick on operating margin, but if that hockey stick is pushed further out then it has a big impact on market value. The next year will separate growth stocks into two camp. Those that can deliver on expanding their operating margin and those that will fail to do that. 

S&P 500 bulls missed a good opportunity to take prices higher in spite of the sharp medim-term deterioration essentially since the taper announcement. It‘s the Fed and not Omicron as I told you on Wednesday, but the corona uncertainty is reflected in more downgrades of real economy growth. There are however conflicting indicators that make me think we‘re still midway in the S&P 500 topping process and in for a rough Dec (no Santa Claus rally) at the same time, and these indicators feature still robust manufacturing and APT (hazmat manufacturer) turning noticeably down.Still, it‘s all eyes on the Fed, and its accelerated tapering intentions (to be discussed at their next meeting) as they finally admitted to seeing the light of inflation not being transitory. The ever more compressing yield curve is arguably the biggest watchout and danger to inflation and commodity trades – one that would put question mark to the point of answering in the negative whether we are really midway in the topping process. Another indicator I would prefer turning up, would be the advance-decline line of broader indices such as Russell 3000. And of course, HYG erasing a good deal of its prior sharp decline, which I had been talking often last week – until that happens, we‘re in danger of things turning ugly and fast, and not only for stocks should 4530s decisively give.In spite of decreasing yields, the dollar continues acting on the bullish argument introduced 2 weeks ago. Seeing antidollar plays struggle (part of which is the function of inflation expectations drifting lower on the Fed‘s turn – let‘s see when the central bank breaks something, which is a story for another day), is truly a warning of downside risks having sharply increased since Thanksgiving. Not only for stocks, where we might not be making THE correction‘s low, but also for commodities, cryptos and precious metals. In a series of two tweets yesterday, the warning is in regardless of a smooth Monday ahead.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bears are looking a bit tired here, and the room for an upswing is getting evident. The surge late on Friday concerned both tech and value, thankfully – overall, the market breadth isn‘t though much encouraging.Credit MarketsHYG did successfully defend gained ground, and strength appears very slowly returning – the gains have to continue to sound the all clear, for considerably longer. As said on Friday, the sharpest rallies happen in bear markets, so all eyes on HYG proving us either way.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are looking fairly stable at the moment – not ready to decline, and still taking time to rebound. The accelerated taper idea didn‘t take them to the cleaners – the real fireworks though still have to wait till the Fed gets really close to choking off growth.Crude OilCrude oil could keep the intraday gains, but appears base building here – similarly to natgas, this is a medium-term buying opportunity as prices would inevitably recover.CopperCopper prices reflect the combined Fed and (to a lesser degree) Omicron uncertainty – it‘s casting a verdict about upcoming real economy growth, and the red metal is still looking undecided, and merely gently leaning towards the bulls.Bitcoin and EthereumThe bearish ambush of Bitcoin and Ethereum was reserved for the weekend, and the bleeding hasn‘t stopped so far.SummaryS&P 500 looks to have reached the low, but the jury remains out as to whether that‘s THE low. I highly recommend reading today‘s analysis for it lays out the key metrics to watch in its opening part. The nearest days and weeks will be of crucial importance in determining whether the worst in the stock market and commodities correction is behind us, or whether we still have some more to go.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  The S&P 500 index broke slightly below the 4,500 mark on Friday, but it bounced from that support level again. Is this a bottoming pattern? For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch   The broad stock market index lost 0.84% on Friday following Thursday’s advance of 1.4%. On Friday the index fell the lowest since the October 19 and it went below its early September local high of around 4,546 again. Overall, it lost 5.24% from the Nov. 22 record high of 4,743.83. Stocks fluctuate since last week’s Wednesday, so is this a bottoming pattern? For now, it looks like a flat correction or a consolidation within a downtrend. This morning the broad stock market is expected to open 0.4% higher and we may see some more short-term consolidation following the recent declines. The nearest important support level is still at 4,500. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,580-4,600, marked by the recent local lows. The S&P 500 remains below its short-term downward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq 100 Broke Below the 16,000 Level Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index remained relatively stronger than the broad stock market recently but on Friday it broke below the support level of 16,000 and it was relatively weaker than the S&P 500 index that day. The tech stocks’ gauge fell below the early September local highs, as we can see on the daily chart: Conclusion The S&P 500 index slightly extended its downtrend on Friday and it was 5.24% below the November 22 record high. So it is still just a downward correction and not a new bear market. But we may see some more downside. For now, it looks like a consolidation within a downtrend, as there have been no confirmed positive signals so far. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 slightly extended its short-term downtrend on Friday. A speculative short position is still justified from the risk/reward perspective. We are expecting an over 5% correction. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Like a whale diving deep to gorge on krill to emerge even more empowered shortly after. When catching these cycles right, bitcoin is ever rewarding. BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, up and up and up: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of December 7th, 2021. Typically, fortunes are slowly acquired and quickly destroyed, not so with bitcoin. Bitcoin’s up moves can be as dramatic as their declines. In addition, bitcoin seems bulletproof to fundamental attacks. With China’s ban on mining, its share of the global hash rate sank from 75% held in September 2019 to zero by now. Miners migrated to the US and had its 2019 4% hash rate rise to 35%. It is essential to remind oneself of facts like these, when emotions overcome one with doubt and confidence falters at these steep declines in bitcoin. At times when opportunity knocks and self-confidence is critical for accurate trade execution. The monthly chart above shows the roller coaster moves that can make even the stern trader doubtful, yet bitcoin rose closer to the sun after each cloud. We find six figure bitcoin prices to be likely within the next few months, as indicated in the very right green up arrow in the chart. Gold in Bitcoin, Daily Chart, measuring true value: Gold in Bitcoin, daily chart as of December 7th, 2021. Where we see bitcoin going from strength to strength, as well, is the relatively rare occurrence of fiat currencies being endangered by inflation to the level that we are right now. Fortunes can change hands quickly. Typically, procrastination is fueled by the belief of a rise in the cost of things. In reality, currency is less valuable. We, as such, encourage you not to measure everything in your country’s currency. We find measurements towards a gold price or a bitcoin price a more realistic view of price/value changes. The chart above shows how the relationship between gold and the bitcoin price changed over the short term, with bitcoins’ recent sharp decline.   BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, in the not to distant future: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of December 7th, 2021. A six-sigma event risk in the overall market environment is always present. Such a market crash would temporarily drag bitcoin to lower prices and needs to be reflected in your money management. Other than that, we see prices right here as a good starting zone for the next push-up which should exceed all-time highs in the not-too-distant future, as portrayed in the above chart. Bitcoin, going from strength to strength: No matter what we tell ourselves, when prices decline, we feel fearful. It is always hard to step into such selling pressure for a low-risk entry spot based on the action/ reaction principle to be part of the next cycle up.  Moreover, practice and planning are required to be part of these upswings and to ride the wave. Our quad strategy aims to reduce initial risk quickly after an entry has been made. Last Friday’s entries near the lows of the day allowed for a more than ten percent profit-taking on half of the position size, a target we call “financing.” Unheard of in any other liquid, low-risk market. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|December 7th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

BABA stock rallies over 10% on Monday in broad rally. Chinese names have suffered as DIDI delisting hits sentiment. BABA and others rally on Monday as China cuts commercial bank reserve requirements. Chinese stocks are nothing if not volatile, and this continued on Monday with huge rallies in most names. The reason was that China cut the reserve requirement for commercial banks in an effort to try and pump liquidity into the system. This can be taken two ways, and investors chose to see the positives. China is struggling to contain problems in the banking and property sectors from spreading, and the travails of Evergrande Group have been well documented. Evergrande was due to pay $82.5 million on Monday, but we are still in the dark on whether it met this latest payment or not. Bloomberg is reporting that another Chinese developer, Kaisa Group Holdings, received a forbearance proposal from bondholders on Tuesday. A forbearance proposal would be a form of an agreed delay or reduction in repayments. If agreed by both bondholders and the company, it averts a formal debt default. BABA chart, 15-minute Alibaba (BABA) stock news BABA stock has been under pressure throughout 2021 as a wave of negative sentiment hit Chinese equities and in particular Chinese tech names. This was kickstarted by BABA itself as it had to shelve the proposed spin-off IPO of ANT Group late in 2020. China then began taking a more cautious approach to its tech sector as worries over the huge amounts of data generated by them escalated. Didi Group (DIDI) did manage to get its IPO off the ground in New York but now plans to delist to Hong Kong. Alibaba stock is down 47% so far in 2021 and 22% over the last month as the sell-off has accelerated. Alibaba (BABA) stock forecast Investors may rejoice at the current bounce in Chinese tech stocks, but this has all the makings of yet another dead cat bounce. Take a look at the monthly chart below. BABA has broken the huge $130 level, which was really the last hope of support. Now it is lookout below until $100. The longer-term view is strongly negative until $169 is broken to the upside. Alibaba chart, monthly Shorter-term traders will be aware of the 9-day moving average offering resistance at $127.56. The MACD, stochastics and RSI all remain in bearish territory. The 15-minute chart does show short-term support at $112 with a large amount of volume at that level on Friday that provided a base for Monday's rally. This may carry on for Tuesday as risk assets are due to bounce, but $130 will likely cap any further gains. Alibaba daily chart above and the 15-minute chart below. The 15-minute shows the large support volume at $112.  

S&P 500 bulls delivered, and the revival in risk-on is increasingly getting legs as HYG rebounded sharply. The sharply increasing participation is counterbalanced by still compressing yield curve, but yields finally rose yesterday. Finally, we saw a truly risk-on positioning in the credit markets – and that won‘t be without (positive) consequences. Still, it pays to be ready for the adverse scenario that I‘ve described in yesterday‘s key analysis, in connection with which I have received an interesting question. It‘s essentially a request to dig in some more so that my thinking can‘t be interpreted as being on the verge of immediately flipping bearish: Q: Your analysis of today: "Downside risks having sharply increased since Thanksgiving. Not only for stocks, where we might not be making THE correction's low, but also for commodities, cryptos and precious metals". I am not sure if I am interpreting this right (English is not my native language). Are you saying that the market might turn down spectacular, even for precious metals? A: it's specifically the market breadth for larger than 500 stock indices that tells me we possibly aren't out of the woods yet - no matter the technical improvements that I looked for us to get yesterday, and that are likely to continue thanks not only to solid HYG performance. What I'm saying is that unless there is broader participation in the unfolding S&P 500 rally (and in the rally of other indices), we're in danger of a more significant move to the downside than we saw already (those few percents down). You can also watch for the sensitivity to Fed pronouncements - on one hand, we have the taper, even accelerated one on the table, yet through Nov, total assets grew by practically $100bn, and it was only the 7-day period preceding Dec 01 that marked balance sheet contraction. This sensitivity to hawkish statements would show in downside hits to risk-on assets (cyclicals), and also in VIX spikes. There, my mid-session Friday call made on Twitter for VIX to better reverse from its highs for Friday's close, came true. So, should a sharper decline happen (as said, the risks thereof haven't disappeared), it would (at least initially) influence precious metals too, and not remain limited to stocks and commodities. Having answered, let‘s move on. I like the strength returning to energy – both oil and natural gas as I tweeted yesterday. While financials are taking their time, and consumer discretionaries lagged hugely on a daily basis behind staples, I look for more strength to return to cyclicals at expense of interest rate sensitive sectors (that includes utilities also). Rising yields (however slowly) would underpin commodities, and it‘s showing already. Precious metals continue needing the newfound Fed hawkishness image to start fracturing, or causing inordinate level of trouble in the real economy. The latter would take time as manufacturing is pretty much firing on all cylinders, which is why I‘m not looking for overly sharp gold and silver gains very soon. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bears were more than a bit tired, and Friday‘s candle being unable to break below preceding day‘s lows while not too much stood in the way, was telling. What can‘t go down, would sooner or later go up. Credit Markets HYG upswing is a pleasant sight for the bulls – half of the prior decline has already been erased. Quite some more still needs to happen, and the lack of volume yesterday is a sign that patience could very well be required (let‘s temper our expectations while still being positioned bullishly). Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals are still looking stable, and are waiting for the Fed perceptions to fade a little. CPI inflation hasn‘t peaked neither in the U.S. nor around the world (hello, Europe), neither have energy prices or yields – so, get ready for the upswing to continue at its own pace. Crude Oil Crude oil confirmed the bullish turn, and the modest volume isn‘t an issue for it indicates lack of sellers willing to step in. Plenty of positioning anticipating the upswing happened in the days before, I think. Copper Copper prices are taking the turn alongside the CRB Index – it‘s starting to lean as much as APT in the direction of no economy choking response to Omicron that would necessitate further GDP downgrades. I‘m looking for the red metal to continue gradually favoring the bulls even more. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum attempt base building, but both cryptos (Bitcoin somewhat more) remain vulnerable. There are a few good explanations for that, and the most credible ones in my view revolve around stablecoins backing. Summary S&P 500 reversal higher is looking increasingly promising, and the signs range from sharply broadening market breadth to encouraging HYG performance. Commodities aren‘t being left in the cold, and I‘m looking for their own reversal to gradually spill over into precious metals – depending upon the evolving Fed perceptions, of course. The odds of us having seen the worst in this correction have considerably improved, and while positioned appropriately, I‘m not yet sounding the analytical all clear of blue skies ahead. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Oil: Crude has been rocketing higher after positive news flow with regards to omicron. Early evidence from South Africa indicates that ICU and oxygen usage are lower than previous waves at similar points on the timeline as well as those in hospital being largely unvaccinated. Based on this small sample size of evidence (which makes me still cautious) this leads one to believe omicron seems more transmissible, but less severe. Fauci (Biden’s Chief Medical Adviser) also shared optimism over the weekend stating that early signals show not a whole lot of severity. GlaxoSmithKline Plc also announced from their recent research that their Covid-19 antibody treatment is effective against mutations in omicron. Risk assets, which oil is falls into got a boost from this and current price action indicates some hot money has flowed back into the black liquid. Adding fuel to the bullish fire we had news that Iran-US Nuclear talks have stumbled a bit. Looking at the daily chart, technicals are strong with an oversold bounce having taken place with $68 support holding. Price is now above its 200-day SMA. Targets wise, on the upside the 21-day EMA around $76 and $78 will be important. On the downside $73.5 (just above the 200-day SMA) will be key. AUDUSD: The RBA left their policy settings unchanged as expected by the market. On the technicals, looking at the 1-hour chart here we can see price is facing some resistance in the form of the intersection of the 200 period SMA, downtrend line and 61.8% Fibonacci level. The RSI is in overbought territory. Could we see a dip lower towards the 0.705 area between the 21 period EMA and the 50 period SMA. On the upside 0.715 would be important. EURJPY: EURJPY on the 1 hour chart has been fluctuating between the 128.5 and 127.5 range bounds. Keep this one on your radar if you like playing the range.

EURUSD seeks support The euro bounced higher after the bloc’s Q3 GDP beat expectations. A previous rebound was capped by the 20-day moving average, suggesting that the bearish sentiment still prevails. The RSI’s double top in the overbought area has prompted short-term buyers to take profit. The pair has met support above 1.1240. The bulls will need to lift offers around 1.1330 before they could attract momentum buyers. A bearish breakout would send the price to the floor at 1.1190. Its breach would trigger a new round of sell-off. AUDUSD breaks higher The Australian dollar soared after the RBA remained optimistic about the economic recovery. The pair saw strong buying interest at the psychological level of 0.7000, which also sits near November 2020’s lows. An oversold RSI on the daily chart compounds the ‘buying-the-dips’ behavior. An initial pop above 0.7070 forced bearish trend followers to cover their latest bets. 0.7170 would be the next target though the RSI’s overbought situation may limit the surge. 0.7040 is the first support for buyers to regroup and accumulate. USDJPY attempts to rebound The yen stalled after Japan’s GDP showed an unexpected contraction in Q3. A break below the daily support at 112.70 has put the bulls on the defensive. The latest consolidation is a sign of indecision as to whether the correction would continue. The greenback found support over 112.50 and a close above 113.95 could help the bulls regain the upper hand. Then the psychological level of 115.00 would be the next step before the uptrend could resume. On the downside, a fall below 113.10 would retest the key support at 112.50.

S&P 500 sharply extended gains, and credit markets indicate some continuation even if by pure inertia. A trend in place, stays in place until reversed – and yesterday‘s upswing was sufficiently supported by the credit markets. The late day retreat in HYG is an obvious warning of a pause possibly coming next, but not of a reversal – the improvements in market breadth speak for themselves. So, I‘m looking for a lean day today, and I‘m keenly watching bonds and cyclicals such as financials for further short-term direction clues. While yesterday‘s upswing was driven by tech, the daily rise in yields and inflation expectations (however modest) was balanced out by still more yield curve compression. The risk-on turn in credit markets isn‘t over, and the key question is whether HYG can extend gains or at least go only sideways for a while. Today‘s key premarket news propelling risk assets up, was about Pfizer extolling its three-dose alleged efficiency against Omicron – even though the news was sold into shortly thereafter, it has the power to buy more time and provide fuel for stocks and commodities. The copper weakness remains the only watchout in the short term, and silver sluggishness reflects lack of imminent inflation fears. As if the current prices accurately reflected above ground stockpiles and yearly mining output minus consumption. It‘s the same story in the red metal, by the way. Patience in the precious metals – it‘s about Fed either relenting, or placing inordinate amount of stress on the real economy, which would take time. Spring 2022 most probably would bring greater PMs gains than 2021 with its fits and starts – aka when inflation starts to bite the mainstream narratives and stocks, some more. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 gapped higher, and is once again approaching ATHs. Hold your horses though for it would take some time to get there. I would prefer to see broader participation within value, which isn‘t totally there at the moment. It‘s improving, but still. Credit Markets HYG upswing was considerably sold into, and that spells some consolidation ahead. The degree to which it spills over into stocks, remains to be seen. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals are still looking stable, and ever so slowly improving after the Fed hawkish turn hit. The central bank and real yields projections hold the key, but the countdown to higher prices is firmly on. Crude Oil Crude oil upswing indeed continued, and black gold looks set to consolidate gains unless value stocks spring some more to life later today. Anyway, the medium-term chart remains bullish. Copper Copper is another reason why I‘m not overly bullish for today – the red metal‘s base building looks to need a bit more time to play out. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are still base building, and looking vulnerable. While a downswing isn‘t guaranteed, it can come and turn out to be sharp. Summary S&P 500 is likely to consolidate recent strong gain, not accelerating the surge today. The bulls within risk-on assets look to be slowly gaining the upper hand, and the opening part of today‘s analysis describes it‘s not a one-way street to fresh highs as the Fed has turned from a tailwind to a headwind. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

The cryptocurrency market capitalisation rose slightly, by 0.4%, to 2.36 trillion in the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index added another 1 point overnight to 29, a significant retreat from the December 6 lows of 16 points, but still in the fear zone. Binance Coin, XRP and Luna have added between 4% and 10% over the past 24 hours, leading the gains among the top altcoins. Growth has been held back by the negative dynamics of the first cryptocurrency, which is losing more than any other of the top-20 coins. The pressure intensified on exceeding the $50K level, pushing it down 1.7% in a day and 12% in seven days. As another result, bitcoin’s overall crypto market share fell below 40%. Approaching this mark in May was a manifestation of sharp profit-taking in Bitcoin after a dizzying rally. Any sustained period when the share of the first cryptocurrency fell below 40% was in January -March and April-June periods in 2018. After that, the BTC domination has recovered with altcoins’ deeper crash, called later the crypto winter. But there is another crucial point: Bitcoin’s peak share declines from cycle to cycle as more new players emerge. At the beginning of 2017, it was 87%, then in 2019, it is already less than 70%. Many other projects have appeared in place of XRP, which has lost its former strength, like a hydra with several new ones growing in an area of its severed head. That said, neither the mechanics (BTCUSD above its 200-day average and retreating from an oversold area on the daily charts) nor the sentiment in the stock markets are pessimistic, indicating that we see purely local momentum in Bitcoin. Ether continues to pivot around its 50-day moving average, sticking to local bullish momentum. As always, it should be stated that a sustained negative on Bitcoin has the power to affect the entire crypto market, but the smooth slide in price suggests that enthusiasts are looking for other ideas in the sector, but not a general flight out of it. Perhaps capital flowing from one cryptocurrency to another is the best scenario for the entire market. However, as Saturday showed, it is easy to scare the whole market with solid moves in BTCUSD.

Akash Girimath Bitcoin price continues to stride with $53,687 and $56,276 as its short-term targets. Ethereum price pauses before retesting the $4,659, followed by the $4,777 hurdles. Ripple price to face a declining resistance level before it retests $0.956. Bitcoin price has been on a steady recovery phase after the recent flash crash. Ethereum and Ripple follow big crypto and are on their trajectories of retracement. The upswing for BTC is likely to continue, but investors need to note that a downswing might emerge such that a range forms. Bitcoin price eyes higher highs Bitcoin price is recovery from its December 4 crash and is currently hovering around $50,000 psychological level. This ascent comes as BTC tries to flip the inefficiency left by the bears during the recent sell-off. While $53,687 is still the short-term resistance barrier BTC wants to tag, investors need to know that BTC might sweep the swing low at $46,698 and set a trading range. Although this might result in a brief correction, it can serve as an opportunity to accumulate for sidelined buyers. Clearing $53,687 will open the path for Bitcoin price to tag the next level at $56,276. In total, this run-up would constitute an 11% ascent from the current position. BTC/USD 4-hour chart On the other hand, if Bitcoin price retraces to the extent that it produces a lower low below the December 4 swing low at $40,867, it will invalidate the bullish thesis. Ethereum price promptly follows BTC Ethereum price has rallied roughly 30% from its December 4 swing low at $3,370 and shows signs that it wants to go higher. The $4,493 resistance barrier is the first level ETH will encounter. Clearing this level will place $4,659 and $4,777 hurdles in its path. Ethereum will easily tag these levels, but the holders should keep a close eye on the all-time high at $4,878, as ETH might revisit. In a highly bullish case, Ethereum price could extend beyond its record level and set up a new one at $5,000. ETH/USD 4-hour chart While things are looking up for Ethereum price, a failure to breach through the $4,493 hurdle could indicate a weakness among buyers. If ETH retraces lower and produces a lower low below $3,890, it will invalidate the bullish thesis. Ripple price faces two hurdles Ripple price has seen a considerable recovery, similar to Bitcoin and Ethereum. As it stands, the XRP price looks ready to tackle the bear trend line extending from November. Any uptick in buying pressure pushes the remittance token toward this barrier. A decisive 4-hour candlestick close above this trend line at roughly $0.87 will set a higher high and confirm an uptrend. This move could attract sidelined buyers and propel XRP price to retest the $0.956 barrier. In total, this climb would represent a 15% gain from the current position. XRP/USD 4-hour chart On the contrary, if Ripple price fails to slice through the declining trend line, it will suggest that the sellers are not done offloading. In this situation, the XRP price will knock on the $0.764 support level. A breakdown of this barrier that produces a lower low will invalidate the bullish thesis for XRP.  

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1300 Valeria Bednarik Stocks markets are giving mixed hints on sentiment heading into Wall Street’s opening. US Treasury yields recovered from an early dip, challenging weekly highs. EUR/USD is mildly bullish in the near term, needs to clear the 1.1310 resistance. The EUR/USD pair recaptured the 1.1300 level heading into the US opening, although so far, there has been no follow-through. The market´s mood is unstable, as investors are still struggling to price in the latest coronavirus developments and the latest from central banks after the Fed announced it might speed up tapering in their next meeting. The American currency managed to advance during European trading hours, following softer US government bond yields and as stocks traded with a sour tone. Equities bounced, putting mild pressure on the greenback, but as government bond yields remain strong, the dollar’s decline is modest. The EU did not release relevant macroeconomic figures, while the US published MBA Mortgage Applications for the week ended December 3, up 2% from -7% in the previous month. The US will publish October JOLTS Job Openings. EUR/USD short-term technical outlook The EUR/USD pair trades near a daily high of 1.1307, mildly bullish in the near term. The 4-hour chart shows that the price is currently extending above its 20 and 100 SMAs, both converging flat a few pips below the current level. At the same time, technical indicators crossed their midlines into positive territory, maintaining their bullish slope. The pair needs to break through the 1.1310 resistance to have further chances of advancing. Support levels: 1.1265 1.1220 1.1185 Resistance levels: 1.1310 1.1345 1.1380

  The bulls pumped up the market, but with fundamentals deteriorating and corporations largely responsible for the spike, regular investors will be left holding the bag. With investors betting on a Santa Clause rally despite the deteriorating fundamentals, the S&P 500 helped the GDXJ ETF (proxy for junior mining stocks) outperform on Dec. 7. However, with short-covering and corporate buybacks primarily responsible for the daily spike, another ‘Minsky Moment’ could be on the horizon. To explain, I wrote on Nov. 19: While European markets have largely ignored the recent coronavirus spikes, a sharp sell-off could be the spark that lights the S&P 500’s correction. To explain, the DAX 30 Index (Germany) and the CAC 40 Index (France) both closed slightly lower on Nov. 18. However, prior to Nov. 18, the DAX 30 had closed in the green for 13 of the last 15 trading days, and one-upping its European counterpart, the CAC 40 had closed in the green for 15 of the last 16 trading days. On top of that, the CAC 40 had an RSI (Relative Strength Index) north of 80, while the DAX 30 had an RSI north of 75. As a result, both indices are materially overbought at a time when Germany is implementing new restrictions. Thus, if a Minsky Moment strikes in Europe, don’t be surprised if the negativity cascades across the Atlantic. To that point, after volatility erupted on cue, the DAX 30 suffered an intraday peak-to-trough decline of 7.8%, the CAC 40 dropped by 7.3%, and the S&P 500 dropped by 5.2%. Please see below: However, with overzealous equity bulls back at it again on Dec. 7, the PMs benefited from the risk-on sentiment. However, with the fundamental problems still present, investors may have set themselves up for more disappointment. To explain, with hedge funds increasing their short bets a little too late, Goldman Sachs Prime Brokerage reported that last week, “US equities on the GS Prime book made up more than 85% of the global $ net selling (-1.4 SDs), driven by short sales and to a lesser extent long sales (9 to 1).”  In a nutshell: hedge funds increased their short bets at the worst possible time. Please see below: Thus, with the Dec. 7 rally driven mainly by a reversal of these positions, the profound short squeeze helped uplift the PMs. For example, Bank of America data shows that last week’s corporate buybacks were the highest weekly total since March. And by repurchasing nearly $3.4 billion of their own stock (focus on the first blue column from the left), their bids helped calm the S&P 500’s selling pressure. Please see below: What’s more, while Bank of America said that hedge funds and retail investors somewhat bought the dip last week (though, they’re still net-sellers over the last four weeks), corporations did much of the heavy lifting.  As a result, with retail investors running out of gas and hedge funds mainly closing out their shorts on Dec. 7, the S&P 500 should resume its correction. More importantly, though, mining stocks’ recent strength should wilt away as the drama unfolds.  Please see below: And now for the grand reveal: corporations' buyback blackout period begins on Dec. 10. And since they can't repurchase more shares until the New Year, the elephant in the room won't be able to support the S&P 500. Likewise, after hedge funds covered their shorts on Dec. 7, short-covering won't be able to support the S&P 500 either. As a result, mining stocks should suffer if the negativity resurfaces over the next few weeks. Please see below: To explain, the red line above tracks the hourly movement of the S&P 500, while the gold line above tracks the hourly movement of the GDXJ ETF. As you can see, the junior miners often follow in the S&P 500’s footsteps. And with the S&P 500 setting itself up for another drop, the GDXJ ETF likely won’t be far behind. To that point, with the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) scheduled for release on Dec. 10 and the Fed’s next monetary policy meeting scheduled for Dec. 14/15, sources of volatility will arrive at a time when corporations are stuck on the sidelines.  For context, I wrote on Nov. 12: I’ve highlighted on several occasions how the Commodity Producer Price Index (PPI) often leads the following month’s headline CPI. And after the former increased by 2% month-over-month (MoM) on Nov. 9 – which is a material MoM increase – and by 22.2% YoY (a new 2021 high), it implies a headline CPI print of roughly 5.75% to 6.25% when the data is released on Dec. 10. Please see below: To explain, the green line above tracks the YoY percentage change in the commodity PPI, while the red line above tracks the YoY percentage change in the headline CPI. If you analyze the relationship, you can see that the pair have a close connection. In addition, after expectations for September were pulled forward to July, and then expectations for July were pulled forward to June, now, the probability of a Fed rate hike in May 2022 has reached ~69%. Please see below: Also noteworthy, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Dec. 3 that “the danger now is that we get too much inflation.... It's time for the [Fed] to react at upcoming meetings.” He added: “the inflation numbers are high enough that I think [ending the taper by March] would really help us to create the optionality to do more if we had to, if inflation doesn't dissipate as expected in the next couple of months.” For context, Bullard reiterated that he expects two Fed rate hikes in 2022. The bottom line? While the bulls stampeded through Wall Street on Dec. 7, things aren’t as rosy as they appear. And while the PMs benefited from the renewed optimism, their tepid rallies are even more fragile. Moreover, with another inflation print on the horizon and the FOMC’s Dec. 15 decision including its Summary of Economic Projections, the hawkish revelations could rattle the financial markets. And with corporate buybacks starting their holiday vacation on Dec. 10, stock market investors are on their own to navigate what comes next. In conclusion, the PMs rallied on Dec. 7, as risk-on sentiment reigned supreme. However, with the S&P 500 rallying by more than 2% and WTI rallying by nearly 4%, the PMs’ daily upswings were relatively muted. As a result, precious metals investors sense that caution is warranted. And with their trepidation a sign of heightened anxiety, they likely realize that going long the PMs involves much more risk than reward. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

USDCAD tests key support The Canadian dollar inched lower after the BOC left its interest rate unchanged as expected. The pair has met stiff selling pressure at the supply zone around 1.2850, a triple top on the daily chart. A drop below 1.2720 has forced out short-term buyers. 1.2580 is the next support and it sits on the 30-day moving average. A bearish breakout would deepen the correction to the psychological level of 1.2500. On the upside, the bulls will need to clear 1.2770 before they could have another attempt at the supply zone. USOIL rebounds from demand zone WTI crude bounces back on signs that the new virus strain has a limited impact on demand. Price action met strong buying interest near last August’s lows at 62.00, a major support from the daily chart to keep the uptrend intact. A bullish RSI divergence in this congestion area indicates a loss of momentum in the bearish drive. Then a rally above 69.30 forced the sellers to exit, opening the door for an extension towards 79.00. The initial surge has pushed the RSI into the overbought territory. 68.00 is an immediate support. GER 40 to test major resistance The Dax 40 recoups losses as fears of the omicron variant start to subside. Last October’s lows near 14900 have proven to be a solid support. The rally above 15520 stirred up volatility as the last sellers rushed to the exit. The bulls are pushing towards 15920, where the index took a nosedive in late November. A bullish breakout could attract more buying interest and turn market sentiment around. Meanwhile, an overbought RSI has caused a pullback, giving time for the bulls to accumulate. 15300 is the closest support.

S&P 500 rose as VIX retraced over half of its recent spike, but tech and value have a short-term tired look. Cyclicals turning down while utilities with staples barely budge in spite of a surge in yields? That looks really risk-off to me, and together with commodities and precious metals going nowhere, represents your usual setup before tomorrow‘s CPI announcement. So, count on some headwinds today.A reasonably hot inflation figure is expected tomorrow – inflation expectations have risen already yesterday. The fears are that a higher than what used to be called transitory figure, would cut into profit margins and send value lower. Even if inflation (which certainly hasn‘t peaked yet as I‘m on the record for having said already) isn‘t yet strong enough to sink stocks, the Fed‘s reaction to it is. The dynamic of tapering response messing up with the economy would take months to play out – so, the bumpy ride ahead can continue. If only the yield curve stopped from getting ever more inverted...Markets keep chugging along for the time being, and the warning signs to watch for talked in Monday‘s extensive analysis, aren‘t flashing red. While I would prefer to see more copper strength for confirmation (almost as much as no question marks creeping into the crypto land), this is what we have – and it indicates that the path higher won‘t be steep. Neither in stocks, commodities or precious metals – as I wrote yesterday:(…) The copper weakness remains the only watchout in the short term, and silver sluggishness reflects lack of imminent inflation fears. As if the current prices accurately reflected above ground stockpiles and yearly mining output minus consumption. It‘s the same story in the red metal, by the way.Patience in the precious metals – it‘s about Fed either relenting, or placing inordinate amount of stress on the real economy, which would take time. Spring 2022 most probably would bring greater PMs gains than 2021 with its fits and starts – aka when inflation starts to bite the mainstream narratives and stocks, some more.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 upswing looks ripe for a brief breather – the volume is drying up, and consolidation in the vicinity of ATHs shouldn‘t be unexpected.Credit MarketsHYG held up quite well on the day, but the stock market mood it translated into, was risk-off one as rising yields couldn‘t help cyclicals.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are still basing, positioned for the coming brief decline that has pretty good chances of being reversed right next. The countdown to higher prices and Fed mistake is firmly on, and the risks of being out of the market outweigh the patience now required.Crude OilCrude oil upswing is running into predictable headwinds, which I look to be resolved to the upside perhaps as early as tomorrow‘s regular session (I‘m not looking for CPI to send real assets down).CopperCopper is still quite lukewarm, and doesn‘t indicate a commodities surge right ahead. Some consolidation wouldn‘t be surprising now that half of the CRB Index downswing has been erased. Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum keep looking vulnerable – the yesterday discussed downswing possibility looks to be progressing, unfortunately for the bulls.SummaryS&P 500 is still likely to consolidate recent strong gain, and at the same time not to tank on tomorrow‘s inflation data. The (almost classical, cynics might say) anticipation is playing out in commodities and precious metals today, but I‘m looking for the downside to be reversed tomorrow as the yields vs. inflation expectations duo hint at. Fed fears this early in the tapering cycle will likely look to be a blip on the screen in the topping process hindsight.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

The crypto market has lost 4.2% of its capitalisation in the past 24 hours and now stands at $2.27 trillion. From the peak levels reached a month ago, capitalisation has dropped by 23%, allowing us to speak of the start of a bear market for the sector, at least like the one we saw in April-July. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index dropped from 29 to 24, slipping into the extreme fear territory. Alarmingly, the overall capitalisation this time was pulled down by altcoins. The first cryptocurrency lost around 3% over the day, returning to $48.3, where the 200-day moving average runs and touched the oversold area again. A significant short-term indicator for the market promises to be the 200-day average for Bitcoin. An ability to bounce back above that line would indicate bullish sentiment prevails and promises new attempts to climb above $50K or $60K this month. A sharp fall would formally clear the way for a deeper correction to $41K or even $30K. ETHUSD has been losing 6% over the last 24 hours and is dangerously close to the psychologically significant $4000 level. The latest momentum of the decline pushed the first altcoin away from the 50-day moving average, and a deeper correction may follow. Ether fell out of the bullish uptrend from the end of September and went into a prolonged consolidation. The declines yesterday and this morning brought the coin back to the lower end of the consolidation range, and a dip under $4000 would open a straight road down with a potential target at $3300 or further to $2700. Bitcoin’s share of the crypto market has started to rise again, reaching 40.3%. We see this growth in a falling market as an additional sign of fear of the crypto market.

Tesla (TSLA) stock continues to slide as Friday sees 6% loss. Tesla (TSLA) now nearing key $1,000 support and pivot. Tesla (TSLA) is likely to move quickly to $910 if the stock breaches $1,000. Tesla stock continues to remain under increased selling pressure as markets take a risk-off approach in the current environment. The emergence of the omicron covid variant appears to have put the brakes on the latest rally but the move had become overdone anyway and some correction was necessary. While 2021 has been the year to buy dips, is this one different? We think not and reckon now is the time to wade back in but we take a differing approach here with Tesla (TSLA). The stock has had a standout 2021 and is likely to suffer from now into year-end. The temptation of profit taking is just too strong here. Technically $1,000 is key. Holding will put in place a bullish double bottom and make us change our call but we, for now, remain bearish and see $1,000 breaking, leading to a sharp acceleration to $910. Our daily chart for Tesla (TSLA) above shows just how much pain the stock has taken this past couple of weeks. Tesla was nearing gains of 80% for 2021 in early November but now is back to a gain of 45% for the year so far. Still a strong outperformance against the benchmarks. Tesla (TSLA) stock news The most anticipated of product launches, that of the cybertruck, has been delayed to the end of 2022 according to a Twitter post from CEO Elon Musk. He gave more details about the proposed cybertruck saying it will have four motors, one for each wheel, and will be able to crab sideways. Elon Musk will give more details on Tesla's next earnings call. China sees a recall for some Tesla cars with a report in Electrek stating "According to a statement from China’s State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), Tesla Shanghai filed a recall plan for 21,599 Model Y EVs manufactured in the country. The automaker cited issues pertaining to the strength of front and rear steering knuckles, stating they may not meet the automaker’s design requirements". Also of note is Elon Musk selling another $1 billion worth of stock, while Cathie Wood of ARK also is still trimming her funds holding in the name. Tesla (TSLA) stock forecast $1,000 is huge, break and it is likely straight to $910. Hold and we would expect more all-time highs before year-end. It is that simple in our view. This one is big. $910 closes the gap from the whole Hertz parabolic move and markets love to fill gaps. Holding on the other hand confirms a double bottom which is a powerful bullish reversal signal. We would need some confirmation with either a stochastic or MACD crossover or a bullish divergence from the RSI. So far we have none of these, making a break lower more likely in our view.

S&P 500 predictably relented, but the resilience of value provides a glimmer of hope. Quite a solid one as the HYG spurt to the downside didn‘t inspire a broader selloff, including in tech. Yesterday was your regular wait-and-see session of prepositioning to today‘s CPI data. This not exactly a leading indicator of inflation clearly hasn‘t peaked, and inflation around the world either. The difference between the U.S. with eurozone, and the rest of the world, is that many other central banks are already on a tightening path.I count on such a CPI reading that wouldn‘t cause a rush to the exit door and liquidation in fears of Fed going even more hawkish (in rhetoric, it must be said). My series of pre-CPI release tweets have worked out to the letter – and now, it‘s back to the inflation trades.I already told you in yesterday‘s report:(…) A reasonably hot inflation figure is expected tomorrow – inflation expectations have risen already yesterday. The fears are that a higher than what used to be called transitory figure, would cut into profit margins and send value lower. Even if inflation (which certainly hasn‘t peaked yet as I‘m on the record for having said already) isn‘t yet strong enough to sink stocks, the Fed‘s reaction to it is. The dynamic of tapering response messing up with the economy would take months to play out – so, the bumpy ride ahead can continue. If only the yield curve stopped from getting ever more inverted...Markets keep chugging along for the time being, and the warning signs to watch for talked in Monday‘s extensive analysis, aren‘t flashing red.The pieces of the stock market and commodities rally continuation are in place, and the same goes for precious metals reversing the prior cautious stance. Even cryptos are warming up to the data release.Looking further ahead in time to 2022, I can‘t understate the bright prospects of agrifoods (DBA) – and it‘s in no way just about the turmoil in fertilizer land.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 downswing looks ready to be reversed soon – in spite of the drying up volume which often accompanies bull markets. The daily indicators remain positioned favorably to the bulls.Credit MarketsHYG weakness looks somewhat overdone to me – the prior upswing is still getting the benefit of my doubt. The coming sessions just shouldn‘t bring a steep HYG decline in my view.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are still basing, and I‘m looking for the hesitation to be reversed to the upside. Just see the tough headwinds in comparing silver being almost at its Sep lows while gold is trading much higher. Once the inflation narratives get a renewed boost, silver would play catch up.Crude OilCrude oil upswing is running into predictable headwinds, but I‘m looking at the next attempt at $72 to succeed, and for $74 to be broken to the upside later on.CopperCopper is still lukewarm, and waiting for the broader commodity fires to reignite. The red metal isn‘t in an anticipatory, frontrunning mood – its prolonged consolidation means though it‘s prefectly prepared to rise decisively again.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum are finding buying interest, but the Ethereum underperformance has me still cautious after taking sizable ETH profits off the table yesterday.SummaryS&P 500 rally is likely to continue today, and the same goes for risk-on and real assets. The Fed evidently won‘t be forced into a more hawkish position in Dec, and the markets are starting to celebrate. Silently celebrate as it‘s not about fireworks, but a reasonable and well bid advance across the board. I hope you‘re likewise positioned!Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  “Do you love me?”, asked gold. “Of course, my dear”, replied Jay, but his thoughts were with others: asset purchases tapering and interest rate hikes. “It’s complicated” – this is how many people answer questions about their romantic lives. The relationship between gold and Jerome Powell is also not a clear one. As you know, in November, President Biden announced that he would reappoint Powell for the second term as the Fed Chair. It means that gold will have to live with Jerome under the same roof for another four years. To say that gold didn’t like it is to say nothing. The yellow metal snapped and left the cozy living room of $1,850, slamming the door loudly. In less literary expressions, its price plunged from above $1,860 on November 19 to $1,782 on November 24, 2021, as the chart below shows. The impulsive gold’s reaction to Powell’s renomination resulted from its failed dream about a love affair with Lael Brainard. She was considered a leading contender to replace Powell. The contender that would be more dovish and, thus, more supportive of gold prices. However, is a hawkish dove a hawk? Is Powell really a hawk? Even if more hawkish than Brainard, he still orchestrated an unprecedentedly accommodative monetary policy in response to the pandemic-related economic crisis. It was none other than Powell who started to cut interest rates in 2019, a year before the epidemic outbreak. It was he who implemented an inflation-averaging regime that allowed inflation to run above the target. Right now, it’s also Powell who claims that the current high inflation is transitory, although it’s clear for almost everyone else that it’s more persistent. I wouldn’t call Powell a hawk then. He is rather a dove in a hawk’s clothing. So, gold doesn’t have to suffer under Powell’s second term as the Fed Chair. Please take a look at the chart below, which shows gold’s performance in the period of 2017-2021. As you can see, the yellow metal gained about 34% during Powell’s first term as the chair of the Federal Reserve that started in February 2018 (or 40% since Trump’s November 2017 nomination of the Fed). Not bad! Actually, gold performed much better back then than under Yellen’s term as the Fed Chair. During her tenure, which took place in 2014-2018, the yellow metal was traded sideways, remaining generally in a corridor between $1,100-$1,300. I’m not saying that Yellen despised gold, while Powell loves it. My point is that gold’s performance during the tenures of Fed Chairs varies along with changes in the macroeconomic environment in which they act and the monetary stance they adopt. Gold suffered strongly until December 2015, when Yellen finally started hiking the federal funds rate. It then rebounded, only to struggle again in 2018 amid an aggressive tightening cycle. However, at the end of that year it started to rally due to a dovish shift within the Fed, and, of course, in a lagged response to unprecedented fiscal and monetary actions later in 2020. I have bad and good news here. The former is that the macroeconomic environment during Powell’s second term could be more inflationary, demanding more hawkish actions. The Fed has already started tapering of its quantitative easing, and bets are accumulating that it could start hiking interest rates somewhere around mid-2022. What’s more, the continuation of Powell’s leadership ensures more stability and provides markets with more certainty about what to expect from the Fed in the coming years. This is bad news for safe-haven assets such as gold. Last but not least, the composition of the FOMC is going to shift toward the hawkish side. This is because some strong doves, such as Daly and Evans, are out, while some notable hawks, such as George, Mester (and also Bullard), are among the voting members in 2022. Gold may, therefore, find itself under downward pressure next year, especially in its first half. On the other hand, the current FOMC expresses clearly dovish bias. With mammoth public debt and elevated asset prices, aggressive tightening would simply be very risky from a financial and political point of view. So, the Fed is likely to generally remain behind the curve. By the way, Biden not only reappointed Powell for the second term as Fed Chair, but he also appointed Brainard as Vice-Chair. We also can’t exclude that Biden agreed to Powell’s second term only if he conducts “appropriate” monetary policy. Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren once called Powell “a dangerous man.” Well, in a way, it’s true, as powerful people can be dangerous. However, history shows that Powell doesn’t have to be a threat to gold. After all, he is not a hawk in the mold of Paul Volcker, but merely a hawkish dove, or a dove that will have to normalize the crisis monetary policy and curb inflation. In the upcoming months, gold may struggle amid prospects of more interest rates hikes and likely strengthened hawkish rhetoric from the Fed. However, precious metals investors often sell the rumor and buy the fact. So, when the US central bank finally delivers them, better times may come for the yellow metal, and gold and Jay could live happily ever after. The End. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.

  Stocks retraced some of their recent rally yesterday – was it just a quick downward correction before another leg up? For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch today's video. today's video." frameborder="0" allowfullscreen> The nearest important resistance level remains at 4,700-4,750, marked by the record high, among others. On the other hand, the support level is at around 4,610-4,630, marked by Tuesday’s daily gap up of 4,612.60-4,631.97. The S&P 500 is at its previous consolidation, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq 100 Bounced From the 16,400 Level Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index got back to the 16,400 level on Wednesday and yesterday it retraced some of its recent advance, just like the broad stock market. However, tech stocks are relatively weaker, as the Nasdaq 100 is still well below the Nov. 22 record high of 16,764.85. Conclusion The S&P 500 index will likely retrace its yesterday’s decline this morning. So the broad stock market may extend a short-term consolidation following the recent rally. There have been no confirmed short-term negative signals so far and we may see an attempt at breaking above the 4,700 level following neutral CPI data release. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 is expected to open higher this morning and we may see a consolidation along the 4,700 level. We are still maintaining our short position from the 4,678 level. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Tesla stock underperforms strongly on Thursday as continued profit-taking strikes blow. Equity markets remain nervous as VIX inches up again on Thursday and indices lose ground. TSLA also feels pressure from more sales by CEO Elon Musk. Tesla (TSLA) shares lost a lot of ground on Thursday as investors cashed in recent gains ahead of the year end. TSLA has to be included in practically all indices, passive and active funds, and the temptation to book some strong profits ahead of the new year is just too tempting. Added to this is the strong retail investor base who will also be much more inclined to sell out before the holiday season, and the stock has been coming under heavy selling pressure. Call options have been a strong feature of the rise in Tesla this year, especially the last six months. Call option volumes have been steadily decreasing. Tesla (TSLA) stock chart, 15-minute As we can see from the chart above, December has not been kind to Tesla stock so far, and we see this continuing. Tesla (TSLA) stock news Added to profit-taking and Elon Musk selling stock was news yesterday that the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) is scrutinizing a feature in some Tesla versions that allow users to play video games in the car. Obviously, this would be a distraction to the driver. We are assuming it is a passenger feature but nonetheless still distracting. Elon Musk sold another $963 million worth of Tesla this week, and Cathie Wood of ARK is still selling small amounts. Tesla (TSLA) stock forecast Somehow $1,000 is still holding in there as support, but surely today is the day when that will finally break. Then it is a pretty clear path in terms of support straight to $910. $1,000 is psychological, but it has been tested quite a few times and the more a level is tested the weaker it becomes. Tesla is putting in a series of lower highs and knocking on the door of $1,000 each time. So the bounce from $1,000 can be said to be weaker each time. We also have a falling Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) confirming the price action. Tesla (TSLA) stock chart, daily

So, what are the facts: Monthly chart, Silver in US-Dollar, probabilities: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of December 10th, 2021. In 2020, silver broke a multiyear sideways range and moved strongly up. It has now consolidated for over a year in a sideways range again. This is a bullish setup! As much as emotions might be weary, from a probability perspective, a general rule is that the longer a congestion is from a time perspective, the more significant will be the subsequent breakout from that range. Statistical probabilities are also clearly pointing to the upside rather than returning into the prior range. Not to forget, buying near the lows of such a range box guarantees the lowest entry risk and highest risk/reward-ratio play to be taken for the long side, even if emotions might tell you otherwise. 2021 silver trades performance: 2021 silver trades performance. Another fact is that one does not need to know when and if a breakout is happening to extract money from the markets consistently. The above chart is this year’s silver trades that we posted in real-time in our free Telegram channel. The systematic approach focuses on low-risk entry points with a risk reduction method through our quad exit strategy. Sideways markets provide an income-producing aspect of one’s trading, and a possible breakout of a range would give a significant bonus. An approach like this keeps emotions in check since one’s labor gets rewarded and allows for significantly higher rewards once ranges do break. Silver in US-Dollar, quarterly chart, silver is moving up: Silver in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of December 10th, 2021. In short, while waiting is strenuous, and one might feel doubtful, from a probability perspective, silver is an even likelier success story now than it has been six months or a year ago. What should also not be underestimated is the fundamental situation of this wealth preservation play. The extensions of governments playing the inflation game to such length are like adding fuel to the silver play. Widespread problems that are the pillars to this insurance play have, if anything, increased. Consequently, supporting a good likelihood that silver prices go up. When? Well, that is hard to say since no one knows the future, but maybe this question gets proportionally in weight too much attention since insurance isn’t just bought for the next storm to come but in principle acquired to make one feel good and to protect one’s wealth long term. The quarterly chart above shows how silvers inherent volatility can sustain, in times of market turmoil, extended phases of extreme standard deviation levels. Price moves far away from the mean (red line). We are trading near the mean as of now, and the very right green line is a projection of a possible price move up.   S&P 500 in US-Dollar, quarterly chart, Quod erat demonstrandum: S&P 500 in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of December 10th, 2021. Still, some doubt left? Have a look at the above S&P500 chart, representing the broad market. Does that look like a healthy chart? Baby boomers and general stock-market participants might be in for a rude awakening once they realize how little their fiat currency is still worth when they cash in those stock portfolio investments. Just compare your total living cost from 2020 with 2021. All positions from food to health insurance, from car gas to electricity bills. Calculate the percentage difference from those two numbers and add this percentage to the average acquisition cost of your physical silver, and you have the real value of your silver already now. How does homelessness double to a half million people per day sleeping roofless factor in? Does this chart represent great times when we face supply chain disruptions? Or is it all smoke and mirrors, and once the music stops, there will be countless chairs missing for everyone to sit down? Silver is moving up: The essential principle in play is that markets are counterintuitive. Meaning your feelings might have switched from enthusiasm to uncertainty, even frustration, but probability facts are in direct opposition to one’s feelings. This principle is the underlying reason why moves out of extended congestion zones can result in substantial moves. Once emotionally weak hands are washed out, these breakouts come from an emotional perspective surprising. Bears step aside and bulls chase prices. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.

Bitcoin price has penetrated below the $53,000 support level and is currently exploring the $48,000 to $50,000 foothold. BTC needs to rise above $57,845 to flip bullish, failing could leave it open to retest $40,000. On-chain metrics are indicating a wide array of emotions, painting the indecisiveness of the crypto markets. Bitcoin price is currently hovering around a crucial barrier as bulls and bears hash it out. This fight for control shows indecision among the participants and is often formed before a volatile move. Short-term investors need to be cautious about the next move, therefore, so as not to be caught off guard. Bitcoin price at crossroads Bitcoin price has slipped below the $50,000 psychological level five times over the last six days. Although the first four times BTC recovered back above it, the December 9 crash produced a daily close below it. Price action for the next few days is crucial as it will determine or establish a directions bias. In some cases, Bitcoin price could consolidate before it violently explodes. While it is difficult to say in which direction BTC might head, let’s assume, it is a bullish move. In that case, Bitcoin price needs to produce a daily close above $57,845 to indicate that the bulls are back in control. Doing this will establish a higher high and eventually, a higher low, which will confirm the start of an uptrend. Even after flipping the $57,845 level, BTC needs to wade through a thick consolidation area up to $61,000. Beyond this level, the big crypto will then have to tackle the $65,509 hurdle and eventually the all-time high at $69,000. To trigger this scenario, BTC needs to consolidate or reverse the downtrend and produce a higher high above $57,845. BTC/USD 1-day chart Supporting this scenario is the daily active addresses chart, which shows that DAA is above the 30-day average of 944,000 and is currently at 1.11 million. This data reveals that despite the recent flash crashes, investors are still interacting with the bitcoin blockchain, suggesting that they are optimistic about BTC’s performance. BTC DAA chart Further implying that an uptrend is likely is the 365-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) model, which has reset and is currently at 1%. This on-chain metric is used to determine the average profit/loss of investors that purchased BTC over the past year. There is a chance this index might dip into the negative territory, but there is also the possibility that long-term holders might start accumulating, kick-starting the uptrend. BTC 365-day MVRV chart Lastly, the stable coin supply reserve on all exchanges has hit a new all-time high of $21.3 billion as of December 9. This uptick seems to have picked up pace around November 25, indicating that investors could be preparing to buy the dip if we ever get one or using the stablecoins as collateral for their existing positions. BTC stablecoin supply reserve chart BTC bears are not far behind While the bullish scenario does not seem out of the realm of possibility, the breakdown of the $50,000 psychological level and $48,326 support level suggests that bears are in control. If buyers fail to rescue the pioneer crypto at these levels, there is a high chance the downtrend could deepen, knocking BTC down to $40,596, the next support floor. If this were to happen, the market makers will likely collect the liquidity resting below this area, allowing BTC to revisit the $30,000 levels again. In an extremely dire case, Bitcoin price could head below the July 20 swing low at $29,763 to collect the sell-stop liquidity. Supporting the bearish side of arguments is IntoTheBlock’s Global In/Out of the Money (GIOM) model, which shows that the next stable support level extends from $45,615 to $23,046. Here roughly 5 million addresses purchased 3.35 million BTC at an average price of $36,730. Even if BTC might head to $30,000 or lower, there is a high chance it might revisit $36,000. BTC GIOM Moreover, the large transaction volume worth $100,000 or more has also dried up from 12 million on November 16 to 5.4 million on December 6. This 55% reduction indicates large institutions or whales are uninterested in BTC at the current levels. BTC large transactions volume chart Investors need to be cautious, therefore, and observe how Bitcoin price reacts around the $50,000 psychological level. A consolidation followed by a pump to $57,845 will suggest that the bulls are trying to make a comeback. In which case, market participants need to wait for confirmation. If Bitcoin price continues to sell-off, then a revisit of $40,000 or lower seems plausible.

Pfizer and BioNTech released the results of their recent laboratory study which found that their vaccine’s antibody response is capable of neutralizing omicron (levels similar to 2 doses against previous strains) after three doses. There was a more than 25-fold reduction in the efficacy of the vaccine however, showing the 32 mutations in omicron does certainly have an impact. The vaccine induced T cells are not affected by omicron and should therefore still provide protection from severe symptoms. To finish off a Japanese study showed that omicron was 4.2 times more transmissible than delta in its early stage. We know that omicron was far more transmissible already so this isn’t a major shock, however, the issue with higher transmissibility is the opportunity for further new variants to arise which (hopefully) will not increase in lethality. Dollar Index (DXY): The greenback is basically flat from where it started the week as traders remain hesitant to push price in a new direction until today’s CPI result is out the way. Omicron news as mentioned above has been on the positive side so risk-off flows derived from that side of things has been non-existent. However, where we could see more safe haven bids for the dollar is from any escalation in the Russia Ukraine tensions, with an invasion very likely seeing risk-off ensconcing markets. This would clearly benefit the dollar on the lhs of the smile (risk-off). Data wise, job numbers filled the rather quiet calendar throughout the week with vacancies reaching new records as well as jobless claims breaching the 200k mark, coming in at 184k. We also had bond auctions coming to the fore, beginning with the front end of the curve, 3-year auctions showed strong demand despite today’s inflation numbers; moving to the back end of the curve the 10-year also showed relatively robust demand. It was the 30-year bond which was very weak with yields spiking higher leading to fears over today’s inflation numbers being the main driver. Inflation numbers were smack bang in line with consensus at 6.8% YoY (highest since 1982) and 4.9% YoY for core. The initial market reaction saw the dollar softer as short term rates fell (clearly the market was positioned for 7%), but that initial dollar weakness is now being retraced as it's still a solid number (Fed won't change path) with prices increases broad based.  Next week the focus will be on the Fed meeting where the risks are definitely tilted towards the hawkish side for the dollar. (Source: TradingView - Past performance is not indicative of future performance.) The dollar is ever so slightly above its upper trend line and the 21-day EMA has provided good dynamic support. The RSI has bounced off the 55 support level too keeping the uptrend momentum in tact. There is some resistance at 96.5 to monitor and on the downside the 21-day EMA would be important to watch if price slides. EURUSD: The euro continues to tread water as it faces headwinds on multiple fronts. The week began with fairly positive ZEW sentiment reading with current conditions missing (expected with covid restrictions), but the main index reading more positive than expected. Olaf Scholz has now been inducted as Chancellor of Germany with the end of Merkel’s reign officially coming to an end. European gas has been soaring again as tensions between Russia and US led to reports than Biden could implement sanctions on Russia. Europe is highly exposed to the price of natural gas so this could be one to watch for sure. Next week sees a very important ECB meeting with a fresh set of economic projections out (I’ll be watching their inflation forecasts particularly) as well as insights into how they’ll navigate the completion of their PEPP programme and transition. I’ll be providing a preview next week.  (Source: TradingView - Past performance is not indicative of future performance.) EURUSD moves sideways with a slight tilt towards the downside capped by the overhead 21-day EMA. 1.135 resistance has formed as the one to watch. The price support at 1.125 should be on your radar too. The RSI has rolled over a touch and pointing lower. The former low around the lower trend line at 1.12 could be very important over the next week. GBPUSD: Sterling has been under pressure as multiple factors line up against it. The week began with centrist Ben Broadbent’s speech which didn’t drop any hints on what the BoE may do at their December meeting. UK GDP data was disappointing with missed expectations on a monthly time frame as well as YoY and 3-month average. Plan B restrictions have now been implemented - guidance to work from home from Monday, and an extension of face masks to most public indoor venues (public transport etc). Mandatory Covid-19 passes will now be needed for entry to places such as nightclubs and venues with large crowds. With Plan B restrictions and softer GDP data, markets are all but certain a BoE hike will not happen at next week’s meeting, opting to rather wait until February for a move. I’ll be providing a preview for this event, but we shouldn’t be getting any curve balls as expectations are widely baked in for no hike, leading to very muted reactions in GBP crosses if any. UK opinion polls have moved against Boris Johnson after the uproar caused by allegations of his rule breaking Christmas party. Labour is now ahead in a variety of polls, which hasn’t occurred for a long time. If the fallout continues the Conservative MPs may decide to trigger a vote of no confidence in him which may inject some political instability. Article 16 could be used as a deflection and distraction tactic to turn the spotlight away from himself. (Source: TradingView - Past performance is not indicative of future performance.) GBPUSD looks technically weak as it trades below the lower trend line of its descending channel. The RSI hovers just above oversold. 1.315 on the downside would be key for a move lower while 1.32.5 - 1.33 on the upside just below the 21-day EMA would be key. USDJPY: The yen continues to come under pressure as the US 10-year yield moves higher and risk sentiment leans on the positive side, reducing the need for risk-off hedges. Tensions over Russian invading Ukraine will need to be monitored though as this could see flows directed towards the yen. (Source: TradingView - Past performance is not indicative of future performance.) USDJPY continues to be bid around its 38.2% Fibonacci level and mini range support around 113.5. The 50-day SMA and 21-day EMA are bunched up right together on the price candles. The RSI edges above the 46 level of support. Targets wise, on the upside 114-114.5 will remain key while on the downside 112.5 will be important to watch. Gold: Omicron variant positive news flow is taking the allure away from gold for safe haven flows, however, rising tensions between the US and Russia is helping to offset that. Real yields have also been rising higher of late which will pressure gold as well as a stronger dollar. Gold is a tad stronger on the inflation release as traders had most likely positioned for a 7% print and this not being the case has led to some bids flowing through.  (Source: TradingView - Past performance is not indicative of future performance.) Gold remains trapped in a tight range with today's inflation data a potential catalyst for a more directional move. Price is now just above the $1775 support level. The RSI has turned back upwards, but remains in no-man's land. The important level on the upside will be $1800 just above all the key moving averages. Oil: Oil certainly saw some new hot money coming back in to drive the recent recovery up from the $68 support area. Beginning the week we saw Saudi Arabia decided to hike their selling price to Asia and the US, indicating that they believe demand will remain robust despite omicron restriction fears. So far omicron news has been positive enough not to lead to expectations of serious demand destruction. Plan B work from home guidance has probably led to some slight weakness in crude, but we’ll need to watch what airlines decided to do in the next few weeks for jet fuel demand. Official US inventory data showed a modest reduction in inventory levels, but nothing to get excited about. Iranian talks are continuing ahead with nothing of anything major to report back on (Source: TradingView - Past performance is not indicative of future performance.) Oil now between its 200-day SMA and the 21-day EMA, is looking for its next direction. Support comes in around $73.50 with the 200-dauy SMA just below there. On the upside $76 provides resistance aided by the 21-day EMA. The RSI, has turned upwards and will need to continue in that direction for bulls to be satisfied.

Tesla (TSLA) just cannot break below key support at $1,000. Equity markets remain supportive with more all-time highs for the indices. Tesla (TSLA) is still seeing selling from CEO Elon Musk. Tesla shares are still holding above the key $1,000 level as we approach the final lap of the year. Tesla (TSLA) is up an impressive 44% so far this year in what has been the year of the mega tech names. Indeed Goldman Sachs notes this morning that five stocks account for more than half of the S&P's return since the end of April. Those names are all familiar big tech, Tesla, Microsoft, Alphabet, Nvidia, and Apple. This so-called narrowing of the returns or a lack of market breadth is often cited as a bearish factor. Goldman adds that the market cap of the top 10 stocks in the S&P make up 31% of the total S&P 500 market cap. That is the highest since 1980. While all this is beginning to sound increasingly alarmist fear not Goldman said. They estimate that this narrowing trend is set to continue and to stick with growth stocks into 2022. Tesla (TSLA) should see more benefits if that strategy is maintained, adding further to the large headache the stock gives value to investors. Price/earnings multiples are out the window with Tesla. It is pure momentum. Tesla (TSLA) chart, 15 minute Tesla (TSLA) stock news Not exactly stock specific but Elon Musk is Time magazine Person of the Year for 2021. Time CEO said, "Person of the Year is a marker of influence, and few individuals have had more influence than Musk on life on Earth, and potentially life off Earth too.".In relation to EV's the CEO added: "a market that Musk almost single-handedly created, seeing long before others the demand for clean-energy transportation that the world’s climate crisis would eventually propel." In other more specific news, Tesla has had to stop accepting orders for new Model S and Model x orders outside North America, according to electrek. Tesla is rumored to have a large backlog of orders. Demand obviously remains strong as more and more countries offer incentives for electric vehicle purchases. Tesla (TSLA) stock forecast We are still forecasting Tesla to return to the gap at $910 before year-end. $1,000 held again on Friday but the level is seeing increasing bombardment. The more a level is tested the weaker it becomes. We fear the next time it will go and that will signal a sharp move to $910. The stock is already well capped by the 9 and 21-day moving averages and only a break above $1063 will change our bearish stance. Tesla, daily chart

One swallow doesn't make a summer, but when it comes to slower inflation pressure, there have been several. Will the narrative change soon? While Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had been preaching his “transitory” doctrine for months, the thesis was obliterated once again after the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) surged by 6.8% year-over-year (YoY) on Dec. 10. Additionally, while the Commodity Producer Price Index (PPI) – which will be released on Dec. 14 – is likely provide a roadmap for inflation’s next move, signs of deceleration are already upon us.  For example, supply bottlenecks, port congestion, and rapidly rising commodity prices helped underwrite inflation’s ascent. However, with those factors now stagnant or reversing, inflationary pressures should decelerate in 2022. To explain, Deutsche Bank presented several charts that highlight 2021’s inflationary problems. However, whether it’s suppliers’ delivery times, backlogs of work, port congestion, bottleneck indices, or the cost of shipping and trucking, several inflationary indicators (excluding air cargo rates) have already peaked and rolled over.  Please see below: To that point, global manufacturing PMIs also signal a deceleration in input price pressures. With input prices leading output prices (like the headline CPI), the latter will likely showcase a similar slowdown if the former’s downtrend holds. Please see below: Source: IIF/Robin Brooks To explain, the colored lines above track the z-scores for prices paid within global manufacturing PMI reports. In a nutshell: regions were experiencing input inflation that was ~2 and ~4 standard deviations above their historical averages. However, if you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that all of them have consolidated or come down (the U.S. is in light blue). As a result, it’s another sign that peak input inflation could elicit peak output inflation. As mentioned, though, the commodity PPI is the most important indicator and if the data comes in hot on Dec. 14, all bets are off. However, the monthly weakness should be present since the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (S&P GSCI) declined by 11.2% in November.   Also noteworthy, Morgan Stanley’s Chief U.S. Economist, Ellen Zentner, also sees signs of a deceleration. She wrote: “We are seeing nascent signs that pipeline inflation pressures are easing – based on evidence from company earnings transcripts, ISM comments, Korea trade data, China's inflation data, the Fed's Beige Book, a department huddle with our equity analysts, and our own survey.” To explain, the green, gold, and blue lines above track Morgan Stanley’s core inflation estimates for emerging markets, developed markets, and global markets. If the predictions prove prescient, the 2022 inflation narrative could look a lot different than in 2021. However, please remember that inflation doesn’t abate without direct action from the Fed, and with a hawkish Fed known to upend the PMs (at least in the short- or medium run), the fundamental environment has turned against them. For example, when the Fed turns hawkish, commodities retreat, and with U.S. President Joe Biden showcasing heightened anxiety over inflation, more of the same should materialize over the medium term. To explain, Morgan Stanley initially projected no rate hikes in 2022. Now, Zentner expects “2 hikes in 2022, followed by 3 hikes plus a halt in reinvestments in 2023.” She wrote: “Before investors close out the year, we need to get past the FOMC's final meeting next week, and it comes with every opportunity for surprise. On Wednesday, we expect the Fed to move to a hawkish stance by announcing that it is doubling the pace of taper, highlighting continued inflation risks and no longer labeling high inflation as transitory, and showing a hawkish shift in the dot plot. We think this shift will shake out in a 2-hike median in 2022, followed by 3.5 hikes in 2023 and 3 hikes in 2024.” Furthermore, upping the hawkish ante, Goldman Sachs initially projected no rate hikes in 2022. Then, the team moved to three rate hikes in 2022 (June, September, and December 2022). Now, Goldman Sachs expects the FOMC to hike rates in May, July, and November 2022 – with another four hikes per year in 2023 and 2024.   The Fed’s Time to Shine “The FOMC is very likely to double the pace of tapering to $30bn per month at its December meeting next week, putting it on track to announce the last two tapers at the January FOMC meeting and to implement the last taper in March,” wrote Chief Economist Jan Hatzius. “We expect the Summary of Economic Projections to show somewhat higher inflation and lower unemployment. Our best guess is that the dots will show 2 hikes in 2022, 3 in 2023, and 4 in 2024, for a total of 9 (vs. 0.5 / 3 / 3 and a total of 6.5 in September). We think the leadership will prefer to show only 2 hikes in 2022 for now to avoid making a more dramatic change in one step, especially at a meeting when the FOMC is already doubling the taper pace. But if Powell is comfortable showing 3 hikes next year, then we would expect others to join him in a decisive shift in the dots in that direction.” Speaking of three hikes, the market-implied probability of three FOMC rate hikes in 2022 has risen to 96%. Please see below: For context, I’ve been warning for months that surging inflation would force the Fed’s hand. I wrote on Oct. 26: Originally, the Fed forecasted that it wouldn’t have to taper its asset purchases until well into 2022. However, surging inflation pulled that forecast forward. Now, the Fed forecasts that it won’t have to raise interest rates until well into 2023. However, surging inflation will likely pull that forecast forward as well. More importantly, though, while the PMs have remained upbeat in recent weeks, the forthcoming liquidity drain will likely shift the narrative over the medium term. The bottom line? While inflation shows signs of peaking, there is a vast difference between peak inflation and the Fed’s 2% annual target. As a result, even if a 6.8% YoY headline CPI was the precipice, it’s nothing to celebrate. Thus, the Fed needs to tighten monetary policy to control inflation, and anything less will likely re-accelerate the cost-push inflationary spiral.  To that point, with the precious metals extremely allergic to a hawkish Fed, I’ve highlighted on numerous occasions how the GDXJ ETF suffered following the 2013 taper. With 2022 Fed policy looking even more hawkish than in mid-2014, the latter’s downtrend should have plenty of room to run. In conclusion, the PMs were mixed on Nov. 10, and the scorching inflation print was largely ignored by investors. However, with the Fed poised to provide another dose of reality on Dec. 15, the recent volatility should persist. To that point, it’s important to remember that the S&P 500’s volatility increased materially after the Fed tapered in 2013. With stock market drawdowns bullish for the USD Index and bearish for the PMs, there are plenty of technical, fundamental, and sentiment factors brewing that favor the theme of ‘USD Index up, PMs down’ over the medium term. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

https://www.midastouch-consulting.com/13122021-gold-recovery-ahead December 13th, 2021: The gold market is nearing the end of a difficult and very challenging year. Most precious metal investors must have been severely disappointed. Gold – Recovery ahead. Review 2021 started quite bullish, as the gold price climbed rapidly towards US$1,960 at the beginning of the year. In retrospect, however, this peak on January 6th also represented the high for the year! In the following 11.5 months, gold did not even come close to reaching these prices again. Instead, prices came under considerable pressure and only bottomed out at the beginning and then again at the end of March around US$1,680 with a double low. Interestingly, the low on March 8th at US$1,676 did hold until today. The subsequent recovery brought gold prices back above the round mark of US$1,900 within two months. But already on June 1st, another violent wave of selling started, which pushed gold prices down by US$150 within just four weeks. Subsequently, gold bulls attempted a major recovery in the seasonally favorable early summer phase. However, they failed three times in this endeavor at the strong resistance zone around US$1,830 to US$1,835. As a result, sufficient bearish pressure had built up again, which was then unleashed in the flash crash on August 9th with a brutal sell-off within a few minutes and a renewed test of the US$1,677 mark. Despite this complete washout, gold bulls were only able to recover from this shock with difficulty. Hence, gold traded sideways mainly between US$1,760 and US$1,815 for the following three months. It was not until the beginning of November that prices quickly broke out of this tenacious sideways phase and thus also broke above the 15-month downtrend-line. This was quickly followed by another rise towards US$1,877. However, and this is quite indicative of the ongoing corrective cycle since the all-time high in August 2020, gold prices made another hard U-turn within a few days and sold off even faster than they had risen before. Since this last sell-off from US$1,877 down to US$1,762, gold has been stuck and kind of paralyzed for three weeks, primarily trading in a narrow range between US$1,775 and US$1,785. Obviously, the market seems to be waiting for the upcoming FOMC meeting. Overall, gold has not been able to do much in 2021. Most of the time it has gone sideways and did everything to confuse participants. These treacherous market phases are the very most dangerous ones. Physical investors can easily sit through such a sideways shuffling. But leveraged traders had nothing to laugh about. Either the movements in gold changed quickly and abruptly or almost nothing happened for days and sometimes even weeks while the trading ranges were shrinking. Technical Analysis: Gold in US-Dollar Weekly Chart – Bottoming out around US$1,780? Gold in US-Dollars, weekly chart as of December 13th, 2021. Source: Tradingview Despite the 15-month correction, gold has been able to easily hold above the uptrend channel, which goes back to December 2015. The steeper uptrend channel that began in the summer of 2018 is also still intact and would only be broken if prices would fall below US$1,700. Support between US$1,760 and US$1,780 has held over the last three weeks too. The weekly stochastic oscillator is currently neutral but has been slowly tightening for months. Overall, gold is currently trading right in the middle of its two Bollinger bands on the weekly chart. Thus, the setup is neutral. However, bottoming out around US$1,780 has a slightly increased probability. Daily Chart – New buying signal Gold in US-Dollars, daily chart as of December 13th, 2021. Source: Tradingview On the daily chart, gold has been searching for support around its slightly rising 200-day moving average (US$1,793) over the last three weeks. However, eye contact has been maintained, hence a recapturing of this important moving average is still quite possible. Despite the failed breakout in November, the current price action has not moved away from the downtrend-line. A further attack on this resistance thus appears likely. Encouragingly, the daily stochastic has turned up from its oversold zone and provides a new buy signal. In summary, the chances of a renewed recovery starting in the near future predominate on the daily chart. In the first step, such a bounce could run to around US$1,815. Secondly, the bulls would then have to clear the downtrend-line, which would release further upward potential towards US$1,830 and US$1,870. The very best case scenario might see gold being able to rise to the psychological number of US$1,900 in the next two to four months. On the downside however, the support between US$1,760 and US$1,780 must be held at all costs. Otherwise, the threat of further downward pressure towards US$1,720 and US$1,680 intensifies. Commitments of Traders for Gold – Recovery ahead Commitments of Traders for Gold as of December 12th, 2021. Source: Sentimentrader The commercial net short position in the gold futures market was last reported at 245,623 contracts sold short. Although the setup has somewhat improved due to the significant price decline in recent weeks, the overall constellation continues to move in neutral waters. There is still no clear contrarian bottleneck in the futures market, where professional traders should have reduced their net short positions to below 100,000 contracts at least. Until then, it would still be a long way from current levels, which could probably only happen with a price drop towards US$1,625. As long as this does not happen, any larger move up will probably have a hard time. In summary, the CoT report provides a neutral signal and thus stands in the way of a sustainable new uptrend. However, given the current futures market data, temporary recoveries over a period of about one to three months are currently possible. Sentiment for Gold – Recovery ahead Sentiment Optix for Gold as of December 12th, 2021. Source: Sentimentrader Sentiment for gold has been meandering in the neutral and not very meaningful middle zone for more than a year. Furthermore, a complete capitulation or at least very high pessimism levels are still missing to end the ongoing correction. Such a high pessimism was last seen in spring of 2019, whereupon gold was able to rise more than US$800 from the lows at US$1,265 to US$2,075 within 15 months. This means that in the big picture, sentiment analysis continues to lack total capitulation. This can only be achieved with deeply fallen prices. In the short term, however, the Optix for gold has almost reached its lows for the year. At the same time, german mainstream press is currently asking, appropriately enough, “Why doesn’t gold protect against inflation? This gives us a short-term contrarian buy signal, which should enable a recovery rally over coming one to three months. Seasonality for Gold – Recovery ahead Seasonality for Gold over the last 53-years as of December 12th, 2021. Source: Sentimentrader As so often in recent years, precious metal investors are being put to the test in the fourth quarter of 2021. In the past, however, there was almost always a final sell-off around the last FOMC meeting between mid-November and mid-December. And this was always followed by an important low and a trend reversal. This year, everything points to December 15th or 16th. Following the FOMC interest rate decision and the FOMC press conference, the start of a recovery would be extremely typical. Statistically, gold prices usually finish the last two weeks of the year with higher prices, because trading volume in the west world is very low over the holidays, while in Asia, and especially in China and India, trading is more or less normal. Also, the “tax loss selling” in mining stocks should be over by now. Overall, the seasonal component turns “very bullish” in a few days, supporting precious metal prices from mid-December onwards. Typically, January in particular is a very positive month for gold, but the favorable seasonal period lasts until the end of February. Macro update and Crack-up-Boom: US-Inflation as of November 30th, 2021. ©Holger Zschaepitz Last Friday, inflation in the U.S. was reported to have risen to 6.8% for the month of November. This is the fastest price increase since 1982, when Ronald Reagan was US president, and the US stock markets had started a new bull market after a 16-year consolidation phase. Today, by contrast, the financial markets have been on the central banks’ drip for more than a decade, if not more than two. The dependence is enormous and a turn away from the money glut is unthinkable. Nevertheless, the vast majority of market participants still allow themselves to be bluffed by the Fed and the other central banks and blindly believe the fairy tales of these clowns. The Global US-Dollar Short Squeeze However, while inflation figures worldwide are going through the roof due to the gigantic expansion of the money supply and the supply bottlenecks, the US-Dollar continues to rise at the same time. A nasty US-Dollar short squeeze has been building up since early summer. The mechanism behind this is not easy to understand and gold bugs in particular often have a hard time with it. From a global perspective, the US-Dollar is still the most important reserve currency and thus also the most important international medium of exchange as well as the most important store of value for almost all major countries. Completely independently of this, many of these countries still use their own currency domestically. International oil trade and numerous other commodities are also invoiced and settled in US-Dollar. For example, when France buys oil from Saudi Arabia, it does not pay in its own currency, EUR, but in USD. Through this mechanism, there has been a solid demand for US-Dollar practically non-stop for decades. The US-Dollar system The big risk of this “US-Dollar system”, however, is that many foreign governments and companies borrow in US-Dollar, even though most of their revenue is generated in the respective national currency. The lenders of these US-Dollar are often not even US institutions. Foreign lenders also often lend to foreign borrowers in dollars. This creates a currency risk for the borrower, a mismatch between the currency of their income and the currency of their debt. Borrowers do this because they have to pay lower interest rates for a loan in US-Dollar than in their own national currency. Sometimes dollar-denominated bonds and loans are also the only way to get liquidity at all. Thus, it is not the lender who bears the currency risk, but the borrower. In this way, the borrower is basically taking a short position against the US-Dollar, whether he wants to or not. Now, if the dollar strengthens, this becomes a disadvantage for him, because his debt increases in relation to his income in the local currency. If, on the other hand, the US-Dollar weakens, the borrower is partially relieved of debt because his debt falls in relation to his income in the local currency. Turkish lira since December 2020 as of December 13th, 2021.©Holger Zschaepitz Looking, for example, at the dramatic fall of the Turkish lira, one can well imagine the escalating flight from emerging market currencies into the US-Dollar. Since the beginning of the year, Turks have lost almost 50% of their purchasing power against the US-Dollar. A true nightmare. Other emerging market currencies such as the Argentine peso, the Thai baht or even the Hungarian forint have also come under significant pressure this year. On top, the Evergrande bankruptcy and the collapse of the real estate bubble in China may also have contributed significantly to this smoldering wildfire. All in all, the “US-Dollar short squeeze” may well continue despite a technically heavily overbought situation. Sooner or later, however, the Federal Reserve will have to react and row back again. Otherwise, the strength of the US-Dollar will suddenly threaten a deflationary implosion in worldwide stock markets and in the entire financial system. The global house of cards would not survive such shock waves. The tapering is “nearish” It is therefore highly likely that the Fed will soon postpone the so-called “tapering” and the “interest rate hikes” until further notice. To explain this, they will surely come up with some gibberish with complicated-sounding words. All in all, an end to loose monetary policy is completely unthinkable. Likewise, the supply bottlenecks will remain for the time being. This means that inflation will continue to be fueled by both monetary and scarcity factors and, on top of that, by the psychological inflationary spiral. In these crazy times, investors in all sectors will have to patiently endure temporary volatility and the accompanying sharp pullbacks. Conclusion: Gold – Recovery ahead With gold and silver, you can protect yourself well against any scenario. In the medium and long term, however, this does not necessarily mean that precious metal prices will always track inflation one-to-one and go through the roof in the coming years. Most likely, the exponential expansion of the money supply will continue and accelerate. Hence, significantly higher gold and silver prices can then be expected. If, on the other hand, the system should implode, gold and silver will be able to play out their monetary function to the fullest and one will be glad to own them when almost everything else must be written down to zero. In the bigger picture, however, gold and silver fans will have to remain patient for the time being, because the clear end of the months-long correction has not yet been sealed. Rather, the most important cycle in the gold market should deliver an important low approximately every 8 years. The last time this happened was in December 2015 at US$1,045. This means that the correction in the gold market could continue over the next one or even two years until the trend reverses and the secular bull market finally continues. In the short term, however, the chances of a recovery in the coming weeks into the new year and possibly even into spring are quite good. But it should only gradually become clearer after the Fed’s interest rate decision on Wednesday what will happen next. A rally towards US$1,815 and US$1,830 has a clearly increased probability. Beyond that, US$1,870 and in the best case even US$1,910 could possibly be reached in February or March. For this to happen, however, the bulls would have to do a lot of work. Analysis initially written and published on on December 13th, 2021, by www.celticgold.eu. Translated into English and partially updated on December 13th, 2021. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. By Florian Grummes|December 13th, 2021|Tags: Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, Gold Cot-Report, gold fundamentals, gold mining, Gold neutral, Silver, The bottom is in|0 Comments About the Author: Florian Grummes Florian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets.

Global vs US Corporate Earnings: On the topic of US vs global equities, a key reason for the extended trend of US beating global equities has been the long-term cycles in relative strength of *earnings*.   The chart below shows that US earnings have outgrown global peers substantially over the past decade. Interestingly enough it follows a previous decade of global earnings outgrowing US earnings.   Basically this lens presents a glimpse of the fundamental trends underpinning the price trends that have been fairly extensively documented.   Thus one takeaway is that this long-term cycle in fundamentals will need to turn in order to reinforce any turn in price. But also of significance is value: I would argue that the superior profitability and earnings growth of US companies is already in the price - and then some. So there is some nuance to this puzzle…Key point: US corporate earnings have outgrown global peers over the past decade.       NOTE: this post first appeared on our NEW Substack: https://topdowncharts.substack.com/       Best regards, Callum Thomas Head of Research and Founder of Topdown Charts   Follow us on: LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/company/topdown-charts Twitter http://www.twitter.com/topdowncharts

With more than a trillion-dollar market cap, bitcoin is now in an echelon where regulation would be fearful to intervene harshly, since a bitcoin crash would affect other markets. In a way, the last pillar is cemented for there to be little risk to think of a world without bitcoin. That being said, even if only minor, some bitcoin exposure is now widely accepted as a wise decision of portfolio management. We share three ways of purchase that we find conservative. We aim to demystify the saga of bitcoins acquisition risk due to its volatility. BTC in US-Dollar, Quarterly Chart, zooming out, away from the noise: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of December 14th, 2021. Risk is related to size. Suppose you buy a small enough amount alongside your overall market exposure, small enough that you can afford assets even to go to zero, then the risk is minimized. Would it be nice to have picked up a few thousand bitcoins when it was available at five dollars or a few hundred at fifty, certainly! Nevertheless, thinking long term and with volatility now being much less, the more bitcoin had settled in and is more widely accepted, even buying here now at US$47,000 is just fine. What we find less attractive is not owning any. And after that initial purchase, to add at price dips in bitcoin to grow a position size over time would be a possible extension of such a strategy. The quarterly chart above shows how bitcoin has always reached new all-time highs again, and there is no fundamental or technical evidence that this behavior should change. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, buy low and hold: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of December 14th, 2021. Another way to participate in the bitcoin market if you already have some exposure is buying in tiny increments when markets seem low. This means buying after one of bitcoin’s steep declines and add this way to your long-term exposure. The weekly chart above shows with a green box an approximated entry zone. We used ABC pattern recognition, volume profile, Fibonacci retracements, action-reaction models, and inter-market relationships along with other tools to zoom into such a low-risk and high success probability zone. Once such a zone is established, we go a time frame lower. In this case, the daily time frame, to fine-tune entries. Therefore, it increases probabilities and reduce entry risk even further. BTC in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, low-risk entries with quad exit: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of December 14th, 2021. Our third option presented is a more active way in market participation. It is refined in its form to suit more experienced traders to soothe trading psychology. In addition, it keeps entry risk to a minimum and maximizes profits. We openly share the underlying principles in our free Telegram channel. Alongside, we post real-time entries and exits for educational purposes. This approach has a sophisticated exit strategy (quad exits). It allows for partial profit-taking and expansive position size building over time to maximize one’s bitcoin exposure without added risks. The daily chart above focuses on two supply zones (yellow horizontal lines). The zones got identified by volume profile analysis (green histogram to the right side of the chart). We want the price to build a double bottom price pattern at one of these levels to enter a long position. We have already retraced from recent all-time highs in a typical percentage fashion for bitcoins trading behavior. Consequently, a turning point here is highly likely. Three ways to buy bitcoin: Overwhelm often stems from a lack of choices. After reading this chart book, we hope that those readers who feel intimidated experience a sigh of relief. Like gold, bitcoin is a store of value. We find a good likelihood that bitcoin might surpass the ten trillion gold market cap. Consequently, your investment right now has a fair chance to grow by a factor of ten or more.  After acquiring bitcoin, you can store your purchase in a small cold wallet, the size of a USB stick. Tuck it away, just like you do your precious metal coins. Buying now for the long term is still stepping in front of most market players which have succumbed to their doubts and procrastination. Consequently, it allows for this investment to be early, anticipating a likely change of the future regarding payment methods and store of value vehicles. Therefore, an asset with significant growth potential (=attractive risk/reward-ratio). Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|December 14th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|

There are less than 2.1 million BTC left to be mined. The last Bitcoin is expected to be mined in 2140. Analysts believe that the scarcity could propel BTC price to reach six figures. Bitcoin has recently reached a massive milestone, as miners have minted over 18.9 million BTC into supply, accounting for 90% of the 21 million maximum supply in the network. 90% of all Bitcoin have been created Less than 10% of the entire Bitcoin maximum supply now remains, and analysts are expecting the leading cryptocurrency’s scarcity to influence a supply shock which could propel BTC price higher. As the adoption of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are on the rise, analysts are predicting that the long-term price outlook for BTC will reach over six figures. As miners continue to mint new coins, the number of new Bitcoins entering into supply have steadily increased, reaching past the 18.9 million mark, resulting in 90% of all BTC to have been created and released into supply. After reaching this threshold, only 2.1 million BTC, or roughly 10% of the total 21 million Bitcoin remains to be mined. Additionally, there are estimates of three to five million Bitcoin that have not moved in the past decade, and a large portion could be permanently lost. The current block reward for miners is 6.25 BTC per block, and the rewards will decrease to half of the amount per block post-halving. Given the current rate of 900 BTC mined per day and 210,000 blocks are needed for every halving, the next reward halving is expected to be in May 2024. The current Bitcoin inflation rate fluctuates between 1.75% to 1.88% and after the halving event, the inflation rate is estimated to be around 1.10%. Until 2030, there will be two sizeable Bitcoin block reward halvings, after then, the rewards will be fractions of BTC. The inflation rate is expected to be around 0.50% by 2030, and 98.02% of all Bitcoin supply will be expected to be mined. The last BTC is expected to be mined in the year 2140. Given that Bitcoin hashrate surging to all-time highs, the network has accelerated the timeframe between halvings, as the daily issuance rate has rapidly increased than previously estimated. Bitcoin halvings occur every four years, allowing fewer coins to enter into supply, making the leading cryptocurrency scarce which increases demand. Marcus Soitiriou, analyst at GlobalBlock suggested that Bitcoin’s scarcity will lead to supply shock for BTC to overtake gold’s market capitalization over the next ten years, which stands at around $10 trillion. He estimates the bellwether cryptocurrency’s price to rise to $500,000 in the future. Bitcoin price awaits 12% ascent Bitcoin price has formed a falling wedge pattern on the 4-hour chart, indicating hope for the bulls. BTC has bounced off of the descending support trend line that forms the lower boundary of the governing technical pattern at $45,654. The leading cryptocurrency is now ready for a recovery. The first line of resistance may appear at the 21 four-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA), coinciding with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $48,501. Additional headwind may appear at the 50 four-hour SMA at $49,057. A break above the upper boundary of the falling wedge could put a 12% climb on the radar toward $55,435. BTC/USDT 4-hour chart If selling pressure increases, Bitcoin price will discover immediate support at the December 4 low at $46,131, before dropping toward the lower boundary of the prevailing chart pattern at $45,654.

Equities 2021-12-15 10:30 Summary:  If you have tried to buy, well, basically anything, you've probably noticed that the shelves in the stores aren't as full as they used to be. With the Christmas shopping season approaching fast, there is a very real chance that Santa will have a hard time getting everyone what they want. In this article, we will look at how supply constraints will be this year's Grinch, how they will steal Christmas and how you can counteract them. It’s not news that the global supply chains are challenged, but how did it get here and what will it mean for your Christmas presents? In this article, we will look into how supply constraints came about and how they will impact Christmas shopping. “We’ve all become accustomed to the fact that when you order something online, you get it delivered within a few days. That system is broken down and we have to be much more patient now,” says Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategies at Saxo Group. Exceptional demand challenges the physical limits of the worldOne of the main drivers behind the supply constraints is a sudden imbalance between supply and demand, which is an effect of the COVID-19 breakout in the early 2020s. On one hand, a collapse of the global economy was expected, and on the other, governments across the globe started supporting both businesses and people by handing out money. The global economic collapse in large part didn’t happen and the world went into a lockdown, which meant that people suddenly had money on their hands but couldn’t travel or go to restaurants, so instead they started buying goods and commodities.“I normally tend to tell the Danish media that it all began when we got our holiday check paid out from the government, because then we all went on a spending spree. Restaurants and cinemas were closed, so we went online and went shopping for consumer goods. So, from having cancelled lots of orders, expecting a sharp decline in economic activity due to the pandemic, companies suddenly had to put in massive new amounts of orders and the system couldn't cope,” says Hansen.In a world where global activity was already historically high, an increase in demand like this puts a lot of strain on the physical parts of being able to supply people with what they want. “When you have such a big shift on the demand side, then when we talk about supply, it's about the physical world - ports, container ships, available containers - and its generally about infrastructure, which takes time to build out and thus can’t make as big a leap as the demand side, because we are talking about building big physical things,” says Peter Garnry, Head of Equity Strategies at Saxo Group. The system, which Hansen is referring to is the logistics sector, where the physical limits of the world are challenged by rapid technological development. “I think what this whole supply chain issue has shown is that everything we're talking about is basically constraints we observe in the physical world, and if there's something we have seen during this pandemic, it’s a phenomenal rally in technology stocks and companies that operate in the online world. When I travel around and talk to clients, I show this chart where you can see that since the great financial crisis, technology companies’ revenue and profits have just taken off like a rocket relative to the physical world, the normal world, the one we are in, and these supply constraints are once again teaching us that a lot of the investment opportunities will be in the online world,” says Garnry. In essence, this means that because governments feared an economic collapse, they handed out money to people and companies who then used the money to buy more goods than usual, like e.g. technological devices and gadgets, which pushed the limits of the physical ships, ports, trucks and roads. In such a situation, the last thing you would want is to clog up the system, so the pressure on the physical limits will be even tougher. Enter Ever Given.The bottleneckWinding the clock back to March this year, one of the largest container ships in the world, Ever Given, was passing through the Suez Canal, one of the world’s most important supply routes. Here it was hit by strong winds that forced the ship to turn, which resulted in the ship getting stuck across the canal. Some 400 container ships were queued up for six days, creating not only shipping delays but also further bottlenecks when the ships arrived at ports at the same time, increasing the pressure on the physical world. So now you had governments handing out money, a global population eager to buy goods, ports that are already overworked and a global trading route which is closed down, halting the usual flow of goods from East to West. A shortage of peopleIt’s probably fair to think that such bottlenecks shouldn’t take long to fix as long as everything is operating as it should. But here it’s necessary to understand two things. The first thing is that on the sea, transportation of cargo is constantly becoming bigger, but on land, this isn’t the case. “Containers ships are getting bigger and bigger, but you still need one truck to move the container to and from the harbour. So, it’s an increasing challenge that these ships roll in and need to be offloaded and loaded in a relatively short time. This has become a major obstacle, like we have seen in Felixstowe in the UK, in Los Angeles and even in Rotterdam,” Hansen says.At the same time, there’s a historic shortage of truck drivers around the globe. In the US alone, it’s estimated that 80,000 additional truck drivers are needed to handle the number of containers that could be delivered at the country’s ports. The reasons for this are many, but it’s an important factor in the supply constraints, and one that isn’t easily fixed.Generally, truck drivers have been in short supply since the mid-2000s. In addition, many economies around the world work at close to full capacity, which usually allows people with lower-paying jobs – like truckers – to move up to higher-paying and more attractive jobs, due to increased demand for workers. Also, governmental support during COVID may have provided some drivers with money they’ve been able to use to get better jobs. “You need a lot of truck drivers, which has been another issue, as there’s a shortage of truck drivers. This is mainly because some of them have found other jobs during the lockdown, where wages are rising in other industries as well, so it's difficult to find all the truck drivers needed to move all these containers. That means that you suddenly end up with a harbour full of empty containers stacking up, which takes space away from the filled ones that need to come in,” says Hansen. So, along with increased demand putting the physical world under pressure, and the blockage of an important trading route, there are also not enough people and trucks to handle the containers when ships do roll in, all adding to the delays and difficulties of moving things around the world.COVID closuresWhen trying to explain how we ended up with supply constraints, it’s impossible not to mention the COVID-19 virus, because it has had a significant impact. As previously mentioned, one reaction to the pandemic has been governmental stimulus, which has created a number of ripple effects. More concretely, COVID-19 has affected operations at ports around the globe – especially in China, one of the world’s key production hubs. “The Chinese zero-case policy on COVID-19 is making it difficult to keep supply chains efficient, because when there’s a new series of cases in China, they tend to close down pretty large parts of the particular region where the cases are happening,” says Garnry.The shortage to rule them allStruggling to ship goods around the world is a major challenge. But struggling to supply the most crucial component in today’s technology goods is arguably a much bigger issue. Semiconductors – also called integrated circuits or microchips – are used in a wide range of goods and products, including electronics. The semiconductor shortage – like the others we’ve described – has been caused by a variety of snowball effects, including bad weather in Texas, trade disputes between China and the US, and especially the COVID-19 pandemic. But this shortage is more significant, constraining sales of some of our most in-demand goods. In that sense, the semiconductor shortage is the real Grinch, which will steal the most popular Christmas presents even before they’re produced. “The semiconductor shortage is impacting everything from Nintendo to car production and PlayStations. iPhone production has also been cut by as many as 10 million units due to these constraints. So, even if you wish for it, and you want it and it's cool, you can't get it,” says Garnry.And if you’re wishing for a new car, semiconductors can also spoil the day. Car manufacturers, who buy lower margin semiconductors, were late in ordering chips after the economy didn’t collapse due to the pandemic. The semiconductor industry had already found willing buyers thanks to high demand for graphics cards for gaming and crypto, as well as chips used in data centres and computers. Car manufacturers were therefore put at the back of the line and have ever since scrambled to get priority, causing car production to be reduced due to lack of semiconductors, meaning that there are a lot of cars that are almost ready to be shipped, but can’t be because they are missing this one component,” says Garnry. Product centralisationLooking at the different reasons why supply chains have ended up in the pickle they’re in, one of them also points to a potential solution, which would be a massive shift in the production strategy that companies have pursued for a number of years. “If you're a large consumer goods company today and your main markets are the US and Europe, you must be contemplating whether you should have production closer to your end markets,” says Garnry. He adds:“Not too long ago, we had a very engaging conversation with Jens Bjørn Andersen, CEO of DSV, and we talked about this situation. In the financial industry, we always suggest that investors should make sure to  diversify their portfolio. But for whatever reason, this concept seems to have escaped the manufacturing industry when you look at their portfolio of production. Said in another way – production companies have sent huge amounts of their global production to China and that really hurts when you have disruptions like these. This could lead us to see more fragmented production and that manufacturing companies begin to diversify their supply chains. My bet is that in the future, we will see some production come back to main consumer markets in the western world.” How to un-steal Christmas from the supply GrinchWhile Garnry’s point about production closer to main markets is relevant, it’s a long-term solution that won’t help this year’s Christmas shopping. For now, we’ll just have to get used to it being more difficult to get what we want.“We need to get the balance back in terms of supply and demand. Until then, we're going to have to live with some disruptions for a number of years and that will create these temporary obstructions in various places in the world,” says Hansen. Garnry adds that the bottlenecks will solve themselves: “We will get there, but it will take some time,” he says.So, what do we do this Christmas? While the Grinch may steal your car, iPhone and PlayStation, Hansen thinks we should look at our wish list and wish for something the Grinch can’t steal – and where we can do good. “Regarding Christmas, think a bit alternatively. The global economy came back very strongly, but there was a whole area which was left in the dark and that was the service sector. So, spare a thought for them if you can't get the goods you are looking for. Wish for a gift card to the cinema or to a restaurant or to some local experience. They're not going to run out of supplies and could use it,” he says.If you want to read more about how to invest in the logistics sector during these challenges, take a look at this article. If you want to get inspiration for more investments in the logistics sector, take a look at Garnry’s theme basket here.

Microsoft stock falls over 3% on Tuesday ahead of Fed. Tech stocks suffer as rate hikes hit high growth names. MSFT is close to all-time highs, volume remains elevated. Microsoft (MSFT) is pausing for breath near all-time highs as the market awaits Fed taper talk Wednesday. While high growth stocks may wait in trepidation, more established names such as Microsoft and Apple (AAPL) have continued to attract fresh investors. High growth usually means low profits, but this is certainly not the case for Microsoft or Apple. Indeed, recent research from Goldman Sachs demonstrated the divergence between mega tech names this year versus unprofitable tech names. Unprofitable tech names are down circa 20% for the year, while mega tech is up nearly 30%. The logic is sound – higher rates disproportionally hit high growth rates. By comparison, established mega tech are cash cows that offer huge profits, huge leverage, huge purchasing power and operate in a quasi-monopolistic stance whereby inflationary pressures can be passed on to consumers. GOOGL, AAPL, MSFT outperformance versus Nasdaq since the start of the year Microsoft stock news It used to be the case that consumer staples were the de facto defensive stocks that investors retreated to in times of stress. After all, we all need food for survival. Utility stocks also were well-used defensive mechanisms for much the same logic, basic necessity. However, with the advent of mobile technology, essentials are now seen as communication and news stocks. Big tech fulfills all these roles. Our smartphone is a means of communication, a means of news service, television, shopping, etc. We now view many big tech services as essential and ones we cannot live without. Combine this with huge revenue, in many cases monopolistic qualities, and piles of cash, and you have the perfect defensive stocks for the 21st century. This is why Apple actually appreciated during last week's Omicron sell-off. What we are currently seeing is high growth meme names taking a disproportionate hit ahead of the Fed. Think Tesla down again, and AMC and GME collapsing. The Nasdaq index was the underperformer on Tuesday. Microsoft stock forecast $318 is our key short-term pivot. Already MSFT has put in a lower high, albeit just below all-time highs. A break of $318 sets a lower low and puts a short-term trend in motion. We specify short term here. This is what most of you likely are interested in. The longer-term trend remains bullish, fundamentals are strong, earnings power is consistent and defensive qualities mentioned above can shield it from inflationary pressures. However, there are some bearish points to note for short-term swing traders. We have a decling MACD and RSI. We also have bearish divergences from both indicators, significantly so in the case of the RSI. Based on this we feel $318 is likely to break, and below we see support at $300. We base this not only on the round number theory but on the volume profile. Volume means price acceptance and support. MSFT 1-day chart

USDCHF struggles for bids The US dollar bounced higher on solid jobs performance in October. A bullish RSI divergence indicates a deceleration in the sell-off. Sellers have started to cover after a close above the immediate support at 0.9170. However, the initial momentum was held back after the RSI shot into the overbought territory. The bulls will need to lift offers around 0.9225, which sits on the 30-day moving average to attract more followers. On the downside, a break below 0.9100 may trigger a fall towards 0.9020. USDCAD tests supply area The Canadian dollar claws back some losses after Canada’s unemployment rate shrank to 6.7% in October. The US dollar’s break above 1.2430 has put the bears under pressure. An overbought RSI has put a limit on the upside as intraday buyers take profit. The bulls are making an attempt at 1.2500. This level was a key support on the daily chart and has now turned into a resistance. A bullish breakout may pave the way for a bullish reversal. A fall below 1.2375 would put the demand zone over 1.2300 at the test once again. US 30 rises as risk appetite grows The Dow Jones 30 finds support from the passage of the $1 trillion US infrastructure bill. The index saw an acceleration to the upside after it rallied above the previous peak at 35600. Sentiment remains bullish with short-term price action grinding up along a rising trendline. 36600 would be the next target. The RSI’s overbought situation has led to a temporary retracement which could be an opportunity for trend followers to stake in. 36070 on the trendline is the first level where we can expect a rebound.

XAUUSD awaits breakout Gold consolidates as traders await the Fed’s monetary policy update. The metal came under pressure after it erased all gains from the November rally. Price action is stuck in a narrowing range between the daily support at 1760 and 1806. This indicates the market’s indecision. A bearish breakout would confirm the bearish MA cross on the daily chart and trigger an extended sell-off towards the floor at 1680. On the upside, a rally would send the price to retest the previous peak at 1870. GBPCAD rises towards key resistance The pound bounced back after Britain showed strong wage growth in the three months to October. A bullish RSI divergence indicated a loss of momentum in the latest sell-off. A break above 1.6770 and then a bullish MA cross were the confirmation for a reversal. The pair is heading towards the daily resistance level at 1.7100. Its breach may lead to a broader rally in the medium term. In the meantime, an overbought RSI could temporarily limit the extension. 1.6900 is the closest support in case of a pullback. USOIL seeks support Oil prices struggled after the International Energy Agency said that the omicron strain may threaten global demand. WTI crude is hovering under the 20-day moving average after the RSI briefly shot into the overbought territory. 74.10 near the 30-day moving average seems to be a tough nut to crack for now. A bullish breakout would attract momentum buyers and send the price to the daily resistance at 79.00. Otherwise, 68.00 from the latest rally is the support to keep the rebound valid.

  Stocks went lower yesterday, as investors took profits off the table ahead of today’s FOMC release. Was it a reversal or just correction? For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch   The S&P 500 index lost 0.75% on Tuesday, as it broke below its recent trading range. The broad stock market’s gauge retraced some of its rally and it got back below the 4,650 level. On the previous Friday the index fell to the local low of 4,495.12 and it was 5.24% below the Nov. 22 record high of 4,743.83. Then we saw another attempt at getting back to the all-time high and on Friday the index closed the highest in history. So was yesterday’s decline only a correction? For now, it looks like a downward correction, but we may see some more volatility following today’s FOMC release and tomorrow’s ECB and the BOE release. Today the index is expected to open virtually flat and it will likely trade within a consolidation before the Fed release at 2:00 p.m. The nearest important resistance level is now at 4,665-4,670, marked by the recent local lows and the next resistance level is at 4,700. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,610-4,630, marked by the previous Tuesday’s daily gap up of 4,612.60-4,631.97. The support level is also at 4,600. The S&P 500 is close to the early November local low, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Tech Stocks Are Relatively Weaker Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index bounced to the resistance level of 16,400. Tech stocks remain relatively weaker, as the Nasdaq 100 is closer to the early December local lows. Conclusion The S&P 500 index will likely trade within an intraday consolidation before the Fed release today. Then we may see an increased volatility in stocks, currencies and commodities. The S&P 500 index trades within a downward correction and we may see more profit-taking action in the near term. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 is expected to open virtually flat ahead of today’s FOMC release. We are maintaining our short position from the 4,678 level. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  Once inflation is set free, it never returns to the previous state. The fight requires fast thinking, but major banks still sit on the fence. On the global economic scene, major central banks still don’t really know which pedal to use - either the one to fight inflation (tapering) or the other one to keep taking their shoot of quantitative easing (money-printing) policies. Inflation, however, is like toothpaste: once you got it out, you can’t get it back in again. So, instead of squeezing the tube too strongly, both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are likely to maintain an accommodating tone this week, which could eventually benefit the price of black gold. Crude oil prices were looking for a direction to take on Tuesday, after mixed reports emerged, one rather pessimistic on global demand (published by EIA) and the other, more optimistic over sustained demand, from the OPEC group. Indeed, the first report came from the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Tuesday morning. It slightly lowered its forecast of world oil demand for 2021 and 2022, by 100,000 barrels per day on average, mainly to consider the lower use of air fuels due to new restrictions on international travel. The second one, from OPEC, stated on Monday in a more optimistic bias that the cartel has indeed maintained its forecasts for global oil demand in 2021 and 2022. It estimated that the impact of Omicron should be moderate and short-term since the world is becoming better equipped to face new variants and difficulties they may cause. Therefore, while the prospect of possible travel restrictions and new lockdowns worries investors, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported on Tuesday a drop in commercial crude reserves of 800,000 barrels last week. On the geopolitical scene, growing tensions between Russia and the West over the conflict in Ukraine are contributing to escalating gas prices, given that a third of European gas comes from Russia. WTI Crude Oil (CLF22) Futures (January contract, daily chart, logarithmic scale) Brent Crude Oil (UKOIL) CFD (daily chart, logarithmic scale) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGF22) Futures (January contract, daily chart, logarithmic scale) In summary, we can witness more volatile markets than usual for the month of December. Even though this could be accentuated by the end-of-year adjustment operations among traders, some uncertainties with central banks’ monetary policies remain and are certainly weighing on the financial markets, especially in the inflationary context. Thus, the week ahead could be an interesting one for both the black gold and the greenback. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

The cryptocurrency market came under impressive pressure on Monday afternoon, taking 6% off its total capitalisation to 2.12 trillion. The Fear and Greed Index for the sector returned to the extreme fear territory, dropping from 28 to 21. It is not easy to pinpoint the new wave of pressure trigger, but it intensified and widened after the two largest cryptocurrencies gave up their key positions. Bitcoin has fallen below its 200-day average, trading below $47K at the time of writing. Excluding the intraday drop on the 6th of December, these are the lowest values since early October, and bitcoin has lost a third of its value from its peak levels just over a month ago. By and large, the highs at 69k were the starting point for pressure on the BTCUSD. Should the decline develop, it is worth paying increased attention to the 40k and 30k levels, significant round levels where Bitcoin had previously turned to the upside. The ETHUSD decline below 4,000 has intensified the sell-off. The pullback now exceeds 23% of the peak, signalling the start of a bear market. ETHUSD’s previous deep correction earlier this year only halted after a 60% loss, taking the price back from $4400 to the $1700 area. Should upward pressure develop, the intensity of the tug-of-war between bulls and bears could increase near the $3300, $2700, and $1800 levels, which acted as turning points earlier this year. The whole crypto sphere is in a Bear market. Their total capitalisation is already more than 30% lower from their peaks, and attempts to consolidate beyond critical levels have failed. Last summer, cryptocurrency investor interest returned after capitalisation fell by more than half. This suggests the potential for a further 30% decline from current levels.

S&P 500 staged a very risk-off rally, not entirely supported by bonds. Value declined, not reflecting rising yields. Paring back recent gains on a very modest basis was palpable in financials and real estate, while (encouragingly for the bulls) consumer discretionaries outperformed staples. That‘s a testament to the stock bull run being alive and well, with all the decision making for the medium-term oriented buyers being a choice of an entry point. The brief short-term correction, the odds of which I saw as rising, is being postponed as the divergence between stocks and bonds grows wider on a short-term basis. Even the yield spreads on my watch keep being relatively compressed, expressing the Treasury markets doubts over the almost jubilant resilience in stocks. Make no mistake though, the path of least resistance for S&P 500 remains higher, and those trading only stocks can look forward for a great Dec return. Faced with the dog and pony debt ceiling show, precious metals dips are being bought – and relatively swiftly. What I‘m still looking for to kick in to a greater degree than resilience to selling attempts, is the commodities upswing that would help base metals and energy higher. These bull runs are far from over – it ain‘t frothy at the moment as the comparison of several oil stocks reveals. It‘s still about the dollar mainly: (…) The elephant in the room is (the absence of) fresh debt issuance lifting up the dollar, making it like rising yields more. Not only that these are failing to push value higher, but the tech resilience highlights the defensive nature of S&P 500 performance. Crucially though, precious metals are seeing through the (misleading dollar strength) fog, and are sharply rising regardless. Make no mistake, with the taper reaction, we have seen what I had been expecting (or even better given that I prefer reasonably conservative stance without drumming up expectations either way) – I had been telling you that the hardest times for the metals are before taper. Commodities and cryptos are feeling the greenback‘s heat most at the moment. It remains my view though that we aren‘t transitioning into a deflationary environment – stubborn inflation expectations speak otherwise, and the Fed‘s readiness to face inflation is being generally overrated, and that‘s before any fresh stimulus is considered. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bulls recaptured the reins in the very short-run, but it‘s the upswing sectoral internals that‘s preventing me from sounding the all clear. Credit Markets Credit markets look to be potentially stabilizing in the very short run – it‘s too early to draw conclusions. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver declined, but the volume doesn‘t lend it more credibility than what‘s reasonable to expect from a correction within an uptrend. Forthcoming miners performance is key to assessing the setback as already over, or not yet. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls didn‘t got anywhere, and the oil sector resilience is the most bullish development till now. The absence of solid volume still means amber light, though. Copper The copper setback is getting extended, possibly requiring more short-term consolidation. Unless commodities swing below the early Nov lows, the red metal won‘t be a source of disappointment. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum crack in the dam is still apparent and open – the bulls haven‘t yet returned prices to the recent (bullish) range. I‘m though looking for a positive Dec in cryptos too, and chalk current weakness to the momentary dollar strength. Summary S&P 500 bulls leveled the short-term playing field, but the credit markets non-confirmation remains. Even though this trading range might not be over yet, it would be followed by fresh ATHs. Precious metals still have a lot of catching up to do, and will lead commodities into the debt ceiling showdown, after which I‘m looking for practically universally brighter real asset days - inflation expectations aren‘t declining any time soon. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

The Fed begins to get up steam and has finally turned its hawkish mode on. Was it something the gold bulls wanted to hear?The Fed’s full capitulation and unconditional surrender of the doves! Yesterday (December 15, 2021), the FOMC issued) the newest statement on monetary policy in which it erased any description of inflation as “transitory.” It took them only half a year to figure it out, but better late than never. Additionally, the Fed practically rejected its new monetary framework called “Flexible Average Inflation Targeting”, which allowed inflation to run hot for some time. In November, we could read:The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation having run persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.In the last statement, however, this mammoth paragraph was substantially altered.The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. With inflation having exceeded 2 percent for some time, the Committee expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment.What is missing is the reference to the Fed’s tolerance of inflation above its target. This means that the US central bank has turned the hawkish mode on. Indeed, in line with expectations, the Fed has accelerated the pace of tapering of its quantitative easing. The Committee announced a doubling of the monthly reduction in the purchased assets from $10 billion for Treasuries and $5 billion for MBS to, respectively, $20 and $10 billion. It means that the Fed will end its asset purchase program by March rather than by mid-year.In light of inflation developments and the further improvement in the labor market, the Committee decided to reduce the monthly pace of its net asset purchases by $20 billion for Treasury securities and $10 billion for agency mortgage-backed securities.Dot-Plot and GoldThese are not all December monetary fireworks we got, though. The statement was accompanied by fresh economic projections conducted by FOMC members. How do they look at the economy right now? As the table below shows, central bankers expect faster economic growth and a lower unemployment rate next year compared to the September projections. This is not something the gold bulls would like to hear.More importantly, however, FOMC participants see inflation as more persistent at the moment because they expect 2.6% PCE inflation at the end of 2022 instead of 2.2%. In other words: inflation is currently believed to reach this level only a year from now! Interestingly (at least for economic nerds like me), Committee members expect that core PCE inflation will be higher than the overall index in 2022, and will amount to 2.7%. It is an indication that the Fed considers inflation more broad-based now than just driven by rising energy prices.Last but definitely not least, more interest rate hikes are coming. According to the latest dot plot, FOMC members see three increases in the federal funds rate next year as appropriate. That’s a huge hawkish turn compared to September, when they perceived only one interest rate hike as desired. Central bankers expect another three hikes in 2023 (the same as in September) and additional two in 2024 (one less than in September). Hence, the whole forecasted path of the interest rates becomes steeper and the Fed is now anticipating eight 25-basis point rate hikes from 2022 to 2024, one more than they saw in September.Implications for GoldGiven the hawkish FOMC statement and economic projections, gold is doomed, right? Well, in theory, a more aggressive Fed’s tightening cycle should boost bond yields and strengthen the greenback, pushing gold prices down. However, what does gold say to the God of Bears? Not today!Indeed, the chart below shows that theory and practice are not the same. Initially, the price of gold declined from around $1,765 to around $1,755, but it quickly rebounded and even increased to $1,780.So, what happened and what does it imply for gold’s future? Well, gold didn’t panic, as hawkish statements and dot-plot were widely anticipated. They were probably a little more hawkish than expected, but, on the other hand, Powell’s press conference was deemed as more dovish than predicted. Since Powell’s earlier transparency and dovish heart rescued gold from falling down, gold bulls may breathe a sigh of relief.However, we believe that this wasn’t the Fed’s last word. Inflation is likely to increase further next year; so, the US central bank, which is terribly behind the curve, could be forced to tighten its monetary policy even more. Thus, although my worries about this FOMC meeting turned out to be unnecessary, they could materialize later.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

S&P 500 with pretty much everything else surged as the Fed didn‘t turn too hawkish. Predictably. The day of reckoning is again postponed as the central bank effectively kicked the can down the road by not getting ahead of inflation. Taper done by Mar 2022, and three rate hikes then, doesn‘t cut it. This illustrates my doubts about serious inflation figures to still keep hitting (hello latest PPI), and above all, their ability to execute this 1-year plan. If you look under the hood, they don‘t even expect GDP to materially slow down – 4.0% growth in 2022 with three hikes against 3.8% actual in Q3 2021 on no hikes. Something doesn‘t add up, and just as the Bank of England raising rates to 0.25% now, the Fed would be forced to hastily retreat from the just projected course.Yesterday‘s expectations panned out to the letter:(…) Still, I‘m looking for the Fed to be forced during 2022 to abruptly reverse course, and bring back the punch bowl. Treasuries look serene, and aren‘t anticipating sharply higher rates in the near term – not even inflation expectations interpreted higher PPI as a sign that inflation probably hasn‘t peaked yet. This isn‘t the first time inflation is being underestimated – and beaten down commodities (with copper bearing the brunt in today‘s premarket) reflect that likewise. Only cryptos are bucking the cautious entry to the Fed policy decision, and decreasing liquidity, in what can still turn out as a lull before another selling attempt.I think that the overly hawkish Fed expectations are misplaced, and that the risk-on assets would reverse the prior weakness – both today and in the days immediately following, which is when the real post-Fed move emerges. Odds are that it would still be up across the board. Yes, I‘m looking for the Fed speak to be interpreted as soothing – as one that would still result in market perceptions that the real bite isn‘t here yet, or doesn‘t look too real yet. Big picture is that public finances need inflation to make the debt load manageable, and that ample room to flex hawkish muscles isn‘t there (as retail data illustrate).Markets are interpreting yesterday as the punch bowl effectively remaining in place, and crucially, copper is participating after the preceding weakness. The metal with PhD in economics has been hesitating due to the darkening real economy prospects even though manufacturing data aren‘t a disaster. Consumer sentiment isn‘t though positive, and inflation expectations among the people aren‘t retreating as much as bond spreads would show. The red metals is balancing out the economic prospects in favor of participating in the renewed rush into commodities – the super (let alone secular) bull run isn‘t over by a long shot. Stockpiles are tight, and whatever the odds of the infrastructure bill being passed any time soon, copper isn‘t budging. That‘s great for real assets across the board.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 reversal is to be trusted, and the advance was very solidly taken part in. With not too much willing sellers, the advance will likely moderate today, but still continue. The bull hasn‘t topped, has been my thesis for weeks.Credit MarketsHYG celebrations are ushering in the next risk-on phase – credit markets are confirming. The too hawkish Fed worry is in the rear view mirror, and many assets can run once again, the time is still right.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals downside was indeed limited, and the solid upswing I called for, materialized. Now, let‘s wait for the reaction of this catalyst with more inflation, for the juiciest results...Crude OilCrude oil is once again readying the upswing – the conditions are in place for $72 to give in shortly. Similarly, oil stocks haven‘t peaked, and are merely consolidating.CopperKey vote of confidence is coming today from copper – the red metal would very willingly participate in a fresh commodities upswing. It‘s been ushered in already, actually.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum look to have found the bottom as well – what kind of corrective pullback would we get? I‘m not looking for one overly deep and testing yesterday‘s lows.SummaryBears have thrown in the towel, and rightfully so – another instance of the Fed crushing the puts. Being between a rock and a hard place, with midterms approaching, infrastructure bill birthing troubles, the central bank‘s room to act isn‘t really too large. FOMC has met market expectations, and still remained behind the curve on inflation. On top, I‘m looking for them to have to reverse course during 2022 – I‘ve argued the case macroeconomically in the opening part of today‘s report. Back to the inflation trades – long live real assets and the not yet having topped S&P 500 (don‘t look at me, Russell 2000)!Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Bitcoin bulls consolidate above $48.760 and will be looking to test and break $50,020 to the upside. Ethereum has bulls banging on the door at $4,060, ready for a breakout towards $4,465. XRP sees buying volume picking up, as a return to $1.0 is in the making. Bitcoin price is seeing a lift in price action as supportive tailwinds emerge following a dovishly perceived US central bank decision, with investors buying cryptocurrencies across the board. Ethereum is seeing the same interest this morning, with buying volume picking up as the RSI nudges higher. Ripple is undergoing a tight squeeze against $0.84, with bulls pushing to break the downtrend and rally up to $1.0. Bitcoin price sees investors buying any offer insight as buying volume picks up Bitcoin (BTC) price is seeing a positive lift in sentiment as a backdraught emerges after a perceived dovish central bank decision from Jerome Powell and the US Federal Reserve. This morning, investors are taking a stake in risky assets with equities and cryptocurrencies on the front foot. With that, expect Bitcoin to rally on this sentiment throughout the trading day. BTC price will quickly face a critical hurdle at $50,020 with the psychological $50,000 level included and the S1 monthly support level. This trifecta will weigh on any possible upside potential. But as markets are rallying with risk-on across the board, expect this level to break sooner rather than later, with an intraday target towards $53,350. BTC/USD daily chart Investors should expect positive sentiment to be a major theme throughout the day. Two further major central banks are scheduled to announce their decisions today, however, the Bank of England and the ECB, and there is a risk these could cast a shadow on the current Christmas rally.. If one of these delivers a message that would break current sentiment, expect a quick nosedive correction in BTC back towards $44,088 or $43,030 in a quick rewind of the rally. Ethereum price sees bulls fighting bears at $4,060, ready for a landslide victory Ethereum (ETH) price made a perfect bounce off $3,687 on Wednesday, with investors pushing ETH price towards $4,060 around the monthly S1 support level and a pivotal historical chart level. As price opens again around the same level this morning, elevated buying from investors is putting bears under pressure to close their shorts, switch sides and join the buying camp. When this happens, expect a significant spike in buying volume with a quick break above $4,060 and a continuation towards the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,332. ETH price is just around $130 away from the monthly pivot level and a second technical element in the same area. Expect the rally to halt around that level as some short-term profit-taking will happen, and the price could fade a little back towards the 55-day SMA. Should current sentiment persist, with tailwinds in equities and cryptocurrencies, expect ETH price action to hit $4,646 by the end of the week, with new all-time highs in sight by next week. ETH/USD daily chart With the end of the year approaching rapidly, expect the volume to die down a bit, which could cause some sharp corrections as sellers will not always be there to match the profit-taking from investors. This could result in possible knee-jerk reactions with ETH price tanking in a matter of minutes. Expect with that, the $3,687 and $3,391 levels to be there as safeguards. Ethereum price must reclaim $4,000 to reignite ETH bull market XRP price sees investors coming in with breakout towards $1.05 Ripple (XRP) price sees investors returning as favorable tailwinds in cryptocurrencies are filtering through into XRP price action. Bulls opened the price this morning close to $0.84, and an initial resistance level is just above at $0.88. Expect a bit of a hesitant start because of this double belt of resistance. Once punched through, expect hesitant investors to pull the trigger and join the rally to move higher towards $0.95 at the 200-day SMA. XRP/USD daily chart Assuming a break above the 200-day SMA, expect a quick pop towards $1.05, but once hit, a quick fade will likely happen, with price action falling back towards $0.99. Should, however, these tailwinds start to fade as quickly as they come, expect a quick return to the downside with a push down on $0.78 and a break lower towards $0.62, with the blue descending trend line and the S2 at $0.58 as supporting factors. XRP price shows signs of incoming breakout

EURUSD tests key supply zone The euro jumped after the ECB announced it will cut its bond-buying program. The pair’s latest retreat seems to have been an accumulation phase for the bulls. Strong buying interest lies in the demand zone around 1.1230. A break above 1.1320 has put buyers back in the control room. 1.1380 from a previously botched reversal attempt is a major hurdle ahead. Its breach may trigger an extended rally towards 1.1460. The RSI’s overextended situation has caused a brief pullback with 1.1270 as a key support. GBPUSD attempts bullish reversal Sterling surged after the Bank of England raised its interest rates to 0.25%. The pound has been treading water above 1.3170. The sellers’ struggle to push lower and the buyers’ attempts above 1.3260 suggest that the mood could be improving. A break above 1.3300 has prompted the bears to cover, attracting momentum traders in the process with 1.3440 as the next target. That said, an overbought RSI may cause a temporary pullback as intraday traders take profit. 1.3260 has become the closest support. NZDUSD breaks resistance The New Zealand dollar rallied as risk sentiment made its return post-FOMC. A bullish RSI divergence indicates a deceleration in the sell-off momentum. The long candle wick from 0.6700 suggests solid buying interest. Then a break above 0.6800 has put the last sellers under pressure. An overbought RSI has limited the initial surge. A pullback may test 0.6755, previously a resistance that has turned into a support. 0.6860 near the 30-day moving average is the next hurdle, and its breach could trigger a bullish reversal.

Part II Let's continue to explore the past 20 years of US Fed actions. I believe the US Fed has created a global expansion of both economies and debts/liabilities that may become somewhat painful for foreign nations – and possibly the US. Reading The Data & What To Expect in 2022 And Beyond In the first part of this research article, I highlighted the past 25 years of US Fed actions related to the DOT COM bubble, the 9/11 terrorist attack, the 2008-09 US Housing/Credit crisis, and the recent COVID-19 virus event. Each time, the US Federal reserve had attempted to raise interest rates before these crisis events – only to be forced to lower interest rates as the US economy contracted with each unique disruption. The US Fed was taking what it believed were necessary steps to protect the US economy and support the global economy into a recovery period. Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! The following few charts highlight the results of the US Fed's actions to keep interest rates extremely low for most of the past 20 years. I want to highlight what I believe is an excessive credit/debt growth process that has taken place throughout most of the developing world (China, Asia, Africa, Europe, South America, and other nations). At the same time, the US has struggled to regain a functioning growth-based economy absent of US Federal Reserve ZERO interest policies and stimulus. Extreme Growth Of World Debt (excluding the US) This Rest Of The World; Debt Securities & Loans; Liabilities chart highlights the extreme, almost parabolic, growth in debt and liabilities that have accumulated since 2005-06. If you look closely at this chart, the real increase in debt and leverage related to global growth started to trend higher in 2004-05. During this time, the US housing market was on fire, which likely pushed foreign investors and foreign housing markets to take advantage of this growing trend in US and foreign real estate. This rally in speculative investments, infrastructure, and personal/corporate debt created a huge liability issue throughout many developing nations. Personal and Corporate debt levels are at their highest levels in decades. A recent Reuters article suggests global debt levels have risen in tandem with real estate price levels and is closing in on $300 Trillion in total debt. (Source: fred.stlouisfed.org) GDP Implicit Price Deflator Rallies To Levels Not Seen Since 1982~83 The rally in the US markets and the incredible rise of inflation over the past 24 months have moved the consumer price levels higher faster than anything we've seen over the past 50+ years. We've only seen price levels rise at this pace in the 1970s and the early 1980s. These periods reflected a stagflation-like economic period, shortly after the US Fed ended the Gold Standard. This was also a time when the US Federal Reserve moved the Fed Funds Rate up into the 12% to 16% range to combat inflationary trends. If the GDP Implicit Price Deflator moves above 5.5% over the next few months, the US Fed may be forced to take stronger action to combat these pricing issues and inflationary trends. They have to be cautious not to burst the growth phase of the markets in the process – which could lead to a very large deflationary/deleveraging price trend. (Source: fred.stlouisfed.org) We need to focus on how the markets are reacting to these extreme debt/liability trends and extreme price trends. The markets have a natural way of addressing imbalances in supply/demand/pricing functions. The COVID-19 virus event certainly amplified many of these issues throughout the globe by disrupting labor, supply, shipping, and manufacturing for a little more than 12+ months. The future decisions of the US Federal Reserve will either lead to a much more orderly deleveraging/devaluation process for the US and global markets – supporting the natural economic functions that help to process and remove these excesses. Or, the US Federal Reserve will push interest rates too high, too fast, and topple the fragile balance that is struggling to process the excesses throughout the global markets. What does this mean? I believe this data, and all the charts I've shared with you in this research article, suggest the US Fed is trapped in a very strenuous position right now. I'll share more information with you regarding my predictions for December 2021 and 2022 in the third part of this article. I will also share my proprietary Fed Rate Modeling System's results in Part III of this article and tell you what I expect from the US Federal Reserve and US stock markets. WANT TO LEARN MORE ABOUT HOW I TRADE AND INVEST IN THE MARKETS? Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals. If you need technically proven trading and investing strategies using ETFs to profit during market rallies and to avoid/profit from market declines, be sure to join me at TEP – Total ETF Portfolio. Have a great day! Chris VermeulenChief Market Strategist

S&P 500 made intraday ATHs, but the upswing was sold into heavily – pre-FOMC positioning raising its head? Bonds didn‘t crater, and the risk-off move wasn‘t all too pronounced. Tech weakness was the key culprit, with value barely hanging onto opening gains. Russell 2000 breaking below its Wednesday‘s open nicely illustrates how late in the topping process we are. What is needed for the upswing to go on, is tech leading the daily charge once again – and it remains to be seen for how long and to what degree would value be able to participate. I‘m taking today‘s S&P 500 weakness as squaring the prior quick long gains, which felt practically as a short squeeze. Now, we‘re working through the faster taper impact, not having shaken the news off yet. We‘re though getting there, if precious metals seeing through the fresh policy move inadequacy, and commodities likewise, are any clue. As I wrote yesterday: (…) pretty much everything else surged as the Fed didn‘t turn too hawkish. Predictably. The day of reckoning is again postponed as the central bank effectively kicked the can down the road by not getting ahead of inflation. Taper done by Mar 2022, and three rate hikes then, doesn‘t cut it. This illustrates my doubts about serious inflation figures to still keep hitting (hello latest PPI), and above all, their ability to execute this 1-year plan. If you look under the hood, they don‘t even expect GDP to materially slow down – 4.0% growth in 2022 with three hikes against 3.8% actual in Q3 2021 on no hikes. Something doesn‘t add up, and just as the Bank of England raising rates to 0.25% now, the Fed would be forced to hastily retreat from the just projected course. Markets are interpreting yesterday as the punch bowl effectively remaining in place, and crucially, copper is participating after the preceding weakness. The metal with PhD in economics has been hesitating due to the darkening real economy prospects even though manufacturing data aren‘t a disaster. Consumer sentiment isn‘t though positive, and inflation expectations among the people aren‘t retreating as much as bond spreads would show. The red metals is balancing out the economic prospects in favor of participating in the renewed rush into commodities – the super (let alone secular) bull run isn‘t over by a long shot. Stockpiles are tight, and whatever the odds of the infrastructure bill being passed any time soon, copper isn‘t budging. That‘s great for real assets across the board. The reason I quoted the above copper part, is the importance of its yesterday‘s move – not too hot, not too cold in pursuing the broader commodities. Keeping above $4.28 with ease today, would be an important signal that the bears aren‘t able to step in convincingly, including in stocks. Oil would sort itself out above $71 while gold and silver would extend their preceding gains today. All in all, stocks would join early next week, and apart from bonds not going more risk-off, Ethereum outperformance would be another confirmation of a broader risk-on upswing to happen. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 downside reversal isn‘t to be trusted on a medium-term basis – but the downswing hasn‘t run its course, looking at volume. Good Nasdaq showing is sorely missing. Credit Markets HYG retreat while the quality debt instruments stayed more or less flat, is concerning for today – and for Monday, should we get follow through in bonds later on. Given the volume comparison, it‘s not certain in the least, which would set up conditions for a broader rally early next week. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals downside is clearly over, and a fresh upswing well underway. Correction in equities is marginally helping, and the reaction of Fed‘s underwhelming move with more inflation news, would be the juiciest catalyst. Crude Oil Crude oil is building up the springboard once again – the current consolidation including in oil stocks, would be resolved to the upside next week. We haven‘t seen a genuine trend change in Nov. Copper Key vote of confidence has come from copper – more willing participation from the red metal is called for next (as a minimum, not losing momentum vs. CRB Index). Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum haven‘t kept Wednesday‘s gains, and could very well provide an early sign of buying appetite more broadly returning. Summary Bonds remain in wait and see mode, and aren‘t as bearishly positioned as stocks at the moment. Neither are precious metals or commodities, raising the odds of a bullish resolution to the S&P 500 rally that‘s been faded. The usual constellation is what‘s required – recovering bonds taking the pressure off tech, mainly. Ideally accompanied by solid HYG outperformance, value rising, copper extending gains, and Ethereum doing better than Bitcoin. Tall order, especially for today – but nothing unsurmountable for say Monday-Tuesday as argued for in detail in today‘s report. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

EURUSD re-tested 1.12 level. EURUSD was last traded at 1.12 level in 24th Nov 2021, before buyers quickly pushed the price back to above 1.13 within just 2 trading days, and since then the price remained consolidating between 1.1250 – 1.1350 for the past 15 trading days. In this weekly chart perspective the divergence is too obvious to ignore as RSI signaling oversold since EURUSD broke below 1.13 level in early November 2021. Despite the uncertainty from a macro-economic point of view, there are chances for 1.14 level to be the next bulls target, as long as sellers do not break below 1.12 level. AUDUSD re-tested 0.71 weekly engulf. Following the rise of Iron Ore in mid-November 2021, it has become a huge favor for the Aussie dollar to make a significant upside push just right after sellers reached 0.70 level, which then becomes the Q4 new low. Now buyers that has clear the 0.71 level which will expose 0.72 - 0.73 as the next bull target. However, this will be a tough job for buyers as both 100-200 weekly moving averages act as a strong resistance level, even though last week buyers managed to reach 0.72. After that the price quickly lowered toward weekly engulf neckline before the US session closed. Weekly engulf can be a good area to watch for buyers to look for upside continuation for the week ahead.

Two weeks ago, we posted the following chart in our weekly silver chart book release, after representing a strong case for a bullish silver play: Silver in US-Dollar, Weekly chart from December 3rd, 2021: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of December 3rd, 2021. We wrote at the time: “The weekly chart above illustrates that as much as we have entered the “shopping zone” for silver. There is a probability that we might see a quick spike down as we have seen at the end of September.” Weekly chart, Silver in US-Dollar, creating silver wealth without fear: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of December 18th, 2021. We were spot on anticipating how the market would unfold in the future. Furthermore, we followed the principles of consistent analysis of our surroundings, the market, and ourselves. We advanced confidently in the direction of likely probabilities and tried to keep doubt to a minimum. Hourly chart, Silver in US-Dollar, well positioned: Silver in US-Dollar, hourly chart as of December 18th, 2021. This sequence allowed for a low-risk entry on December 15th, 2021 right at the lows. The entry-level of US$21.47 already allowed for a 2.75% partial profit-taking on half of our position size at US$22.06. As always, we use our low-risk quad exit strategy to reduce risk and, as such, fear of losing profits. Now we are well-positioned with the remainder of the position, and a stop raised to break even entry levels. Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart, worth the effort: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of December 18th, 2021. The monthly chart above shows our planned following two targets for this trade. With an entry at US$21.47 and an initial tight stop at US$21.22, our risk/reward-ratio towards our first profit-taking target was about 1:2.37. Now for the next target at US$27.35, it is 1:23, and for the final target at US$47.20, it is 1:103. In other words, with extensive planning and stacking of odds, we were able to identify a trade that had about a percent of risk at entry time. In addition, we quickly mitigated risk by early partial profit-taking. And yet, we still have a profit potential of the final 25% of position size, possibly maturing to a 120% profit. Taking only highly likely and highly profitable trades like these is also confidence-building and a fear eliminator. Creating silver wealth without fear: Michael Jordan’s achievement of playing in the present moment only is nothing short of the accomplishment of monks and so-called enlightened beings. It takes a long stretch of a career to achieve such a skill set. It illustrates that trading is more than just pushing a button or extracting a mathematical edge system. Trading is psychology and requires many skill sets combined to produce the necessary consistency to overcome the dilemma that you are only as good as your last action. Luck alone will get you nowhere in this game. It is not our intention to discourage you. Instead, it is quite the opposite. Often trading can be overwhelming and at times one can be down thinking: „Why can’t I do this, why did I betray my own rules again?” Trading is hard, it takes screen time and skill. Do not let fear and doubt dictate your actions. You can do this! Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|December 19th, 2021|Tags: bottoming pattern, Crack-Up-Boom, Gold, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, The bottom is in, time frame, trading principles|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

Bitcoin price is in a massive accumulation phase before it explodes to $100,000 or more. The bull run is likely to begin after a deep correction to MicroStrategy’s average buy price at $29,860. On-chain metrics suggest that long-term holders are booking profit, adding a tailwind to the bearish thesis. Bitcoin price has been hanging around the $50,000 psychological level for quite some time. A breakdown of one crucial support barrier is likely to trigger a steep crash for BTC. On-chain metrics are also suggesting that long-term holders are booking profits, anticipating a nosedive. Bitcoin price and MicroStrategy’s accumulation Bitcoin price has been stuck between the 21-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $51,782 and the 50-week SMA at $44,730 for roughly two weeks. Although BTC pierced through the 50-week SMA on December 4 crash, it recovered quickly. As the sell-off continues, the big crypto is slowly slithering its way to retest the vital support level. A weekly close below the 50-week SMA at $44,730 will indicate a major shift in trend from bullish to bearish. This development would also signal that Bitcoin price is due to collect liquidity resting below the $40,596 support level. While this liquidity run might knock BTC below $40,000, it is a temporary move. In the long run, investors can expect the pioneer crypto to consolidate here before heading to $30,000 or the liquidity resting below it. Interestingly this downswing is necessary to trigger the stop-losses resting below a critical $29,860 level, which is the average buy-in price of MicroStrategy. To date, the business intelligence software company has purchased 122,477 BTC, which is 0.53% of the total BTC in existence. The total value of Bitcoins held by MicroStrategy is worth $5.76 billion, which indicates a profit of roughly 56%. It is fair to assume that many whales or long-term holders that are betting on BTC have an average price at roughly the same level as MicroStrategy or a bit lower. Therefore, a dip below the average price of MicroStrategy at $29,860 will indicate a ‘max pain’ scenario and is likely to be where many investors may panic and sell to prevent losses. Market makers are likely to drive Bitcoin price to retest this barrier, therefore, or just below it. While this outlook is speculative, it would make sense for BTC, especially from a market makers’ perspective due to the supply resting below the multiple wicks present around the $30,000 psychological level. In total, this move would represent a 36% crash from the current position. Although unlikely, a worst-case scenario would be for BTC to fall by 48%, allowing it to retest the 200-week SMA at $23,935. BTC/USD 1-week chart IntoTheBlock’s Global In/Out of the Money (GIOM) model reflects the levels mentioned above. This on-chain index shows that the immediate cluster of investors that are “In the Money,” extends from $28,350 to $46,636. Roughly 5.23 million addresses purchased 3.13 million BTC at an average price of $38,283. Therefore, a weekly close below this level will cause panic selling among investors that could drag the big crypto down to sub-$30,000 levels. Moreover, any short-term buying pressure is likely to face massive headwinds as a massive cluster of underwater investors are present from $55,302 to $67,413. In this range, roughly 6.65 million addresses that purchased 3.37 million BTC are “Out of the Money.” Only a massive spike in buying pressure will be able to overcome the selling pressure from investors in this cluster trying to break even. Hence, the logical conclusion is that the outlook for BTC favors the bears. BTC GIOM The supply shock chart supports the bearish outlook for Bitcoin. It shows that the long-term holders are booking profits. Willy Woo, a popular analyst stated, long term holders have been selling down and taking profits, but as a cohort they continue to be in a region of peak accumulation. Bear markets coincide when these holders have divested of their coins, despite the fear in the market, structurally we are not setup for a bear market. BTC supply shock chart Further supporting a sell-off is the 0.83% decline in the number of whales holding between 100 to 100,000 BTC. Roughly 136 whales have offloaded their positions as seen in the supply shock chart above. BTC whale distribution chart The only chart that shows hope and presents the possibility of a short-term bullish outlook is the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) model, hovering around -1.8%. This on-chain metric is used to determine the average profit/loss of investors that purchased BTC over the past year. A negative value represents that short-term holders are selling and is often referred to as the “opportunity zone.” This is where mid-to-long-term holders accumulate. So, there is a chance that BTC might see a potential buying spree that pushes it to retest the 21-week SMA at $51,776 or reach for the $57,845 resistance barrier, in a highly bullish case. BTC 365-day MVRV While the scenario outlined above is undoubtedly bearish for short-term holders, it will provide long-term investors with a perfect buying opportunity. A retest of MicroStrategy’s average buy price at $29,860 will be where investors can expect a reversal of the downswing. The resulting uptrend will likely propel Bitcoin price to a new all-time high at $100,000. However, if Bitcoin price decides to skip the crash and produces a weekly close above the current all-time high at $69,000, then it will invalidate the bullish thesis. In such a case, investors can expect BTC to head to other psychological barriers like $70,000 or $80,000.