gbpusd forex

Stock markets recovered earlier losses on Monday and are adding to that in early trade on Tuesday, with Asia also posting strong gains.

The turnaround in risk appetite appears to have been driven by another deterioration in PMI surveys as traders speculate that such weakness could be a precursor to slower monetary tightening. If that sounds like straw clutching, it’s probably because it is but then, equity markets have had a rough ride of late and that can’t last forever.

The deceleration begins

The RBA became the first major central bank to slow the pace of tightening overnight, hiking rates by only 25 basis points against expectations of another 50. After four consecutive super-sized hikes, the RBA determined it can start to ease off the brake and is on course to hit its inflation target over the medium term.

Australian Dollar

Of course, this had nothing to do with weak PMI surveys but it will probably assist the narrative that a global deceleration in rate hikes is underway, which could boo

UK Inflation Influences GBPUSD Price Line, USDCAD Shows Canadian Dollar Strength, Crude Oil Price (USOIL) Has Been Rising Gradually

UK Inflation Influences GBPUSD Price Line, USDCAD Shows Canadian Dollar Strength, Crude Oil Price (USOIL) Has Been Rising Gradually

Jing Ren Jing Ren 14.04.2022 08:55
USDCAD tumbles towards daily support The Canadian dollar surged after the BOC’s aggressive rate hike of 50bp. The pair’s recovery came under pressure at 1.2670. A bearish RSI divergence shows a loss of momentum in the rally and the ensuing break below 1.2580 acts as confirmation of underlying weakness. A combination of stop losses and momentum selling could further depress the greenback. An oversold RSI may attract some bargain hunters and 1.2480 is a major level to keep the rebound intact. In fact, its breach could cause extended losses beyond 1.2400. Related article: ECB Interest Rate Decision Is Coming! European Indices (DAX, CAC40) To Plunge Or Rise? What About Forex Pairs? GBPUSD breaks resistance The pound recoups losses as the UK’s March CPI beats market expectations. Overall sentiment ticked down after the pair dropped below the psychological level of 1.3000. However, a swift bounce above 1.3080 is an encouraging sign for the bulls as it forced the bears to cover their positions. 1.3180 is the next resistance and a bullish breakout could bring the sterling back to 1.3300 and open the door to a reversal. The RSI’s overbought condition may lead to a pullback. And 1.2990 is the immediate support should this happen. USOIL grinds resistance WTI bounces as major trading houses plan to trim purchases of Russian crude. The price is slowly recovering from the daily demand zone around 94.00. This could be a consolidation phase after the recent wild ride. The RSI’s double-dip in the oversold territory triggered a buy-the-dips behavior. A break above 105.00 could cause a broader recovery to 115.00. The RSI’s swing into overextension may limit the impetus. The psychological level of 100.00 is a fresh support and 94.00 is a critical floor to keep the price afloat.
Forecasts For Q4: The Power And Gas Crisis Will Reach Its Peak

(USOIL) Crude Oil Price Crisis!? Fed To Boost (USD) US Dollar? UK Inflation Rate Surprised Many This Week, What About The Following One? Economic Calendar by FXMAG.COM

Mikołaj Marcinowski Mikołaj Marcinowski 16.04.2022 17:59
Today, tomorrow and on Monday many countries around the world celebrate Easter. Friday was a day free for many stock markets and banks too. As we wrote yesterday forex market was live so we may say it had some time to stock (sic!) up. The following week is going bring many news and next proves of hawkish rhetoric of Fed, ECB and BoE. Monday – Going East – Chinese GDP On Monday many, many countries – Germany, Italy Spain, Australia and more has a day free. Only in China, very early in the morning GDP and Industrial Production are printed. Previously Gross Domestic Product amounted to 4%. Another indicator released at 3 a.m. – Industrial Production hit 7.5% previously. Related article: Deutsche Bank Shook DAX! French Election, Inflation And ECB Are Factors Which Shaped DAX (GER 40), CAC40, FTSE 100 And IBEX35 - Top Gainers, Top Losers Tuesday – RBA Meeting Minutes – NZD/USD To Plunge Again!? It’s good to have a look at RBA Meeting Minutes in the morning. The document will be released at 2:30 a.m. and may let us prepare NZD rate prediction. At 1:30 p.m. we focus on the data coming from the USA. Building Permits release previously amounted to 1.865M. This indicator let us diagnose the real estate market in the United States. Wednesday - Crude Oil Price To Skyrocket!? CAD/USD And NZD/USD May Fluctuate! First release of the day is Chinese PBoC Loan Prime Rate which takes place at 2:15 a.m. Previously this indicator amounted to 3.7%. At 1:30 p.m. you better follow CAD/USD and other pairs with Canadian dollar as Core CPI may shake the rate. Indicator amounted to 0.8% previous time. Later in the afternoon investors should follow the release of Existing Home Sales (6.02M) and, what’s most important – Crude Oil Inventories. ON April 13th Crude Oil Inventories hit 9.382M! Very late in the afternoon we focus on New Zealand where CPI (Q1) is released. Let’s follow NZD forex pairs then. Thursday – Huge Gain Of US Dollar Index (DXY) Amid Hawkish Fed!? Follow Euro To US Dollar (EUR/USD) and GBP/USD Fluctuations! What Will BoE And ECB Do? Naturally next Fed decision is made in May, but before it happens we all stay updated with the current Fed rhetoric expressed by i.a. Jerome Powell who speaks at 6 p.m. on Thursday. What’s more it’s going to be a really, really market moving day as alongside Powell, BoE’s Bailey and ECB’s Lagarde speaks as well! Additionally, at 10 a.m. the EU CPI is released. After the recent interest rate decision ECB’s rhetoric is definitely worth a follow! Article on Crypto: Hot Topic - NEAR Protocol! Terra (LUNA) has been seeing a consistent downward price trend, DAI Should Stay Close To $1 Friday – GBP/USD To Plunge!? UK Manufacturing PMI Release And BoE’s Lagarde Speaks Again The following week ends with some important releases. We begin with UK Retail sales, Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI and German Manufacturing PMI. In the afternoon Canadian Core Retail Sales (2.5%) is released. The day ends with ECB’s and BoE’s representatives’ testimonies. Source/Data: Investing.com Economic Calendar
Walt Disney Results Are Beyond  All Expectations. Large Chinese Company Fires More Than 9K Employees!!! Market Newsfeed - 11.08.2022

British Pound (GBP) Power! Will GBPUSD Go Down Anymore!? (Australian Dollar To US Dollar) AUD/USD Is Volatile, GER 40 (DAX) To Pause Longer?

Jing Ren Jing Ren 19.04.2022 08:42
Summary: GBPUSD tests critical floor AUDUSD breaks support GER 40 seeks support GBPUSD tests critical floor The RSI’s oversold situation may cause a temporary bounce towards 1.3060. The US dollar continues upward as markets wager a 50 bp Fed hike next month. The pound’s latest rally came to a halt in the supply zone around 1.3150 which coincides with the 30-day moving average.   Read next: (UKOIL) Brent Crude Oil Spikes to Highest Price For April, (NGAS) Natural Gas Hitting Pre-2008 Prices, Cotton Planting Has Begun   As the pair gives up its recent gains, the bears still retain control of the direction and seem to be ready to double down at rebounds. A drop below 1.3000 would attract momentum selling and push the pair to November 2020’s lows near 1.2860. The RSI’s oversold situation may cause a temporary bounce towards 1.3060. AUDUSD breaks support As the RSI recovers into the neutral area, the pair may face stiff selling pressure around the support-turned-resistance at 0.7400. The Australian dollar remains under pressure after dovish RBA minutes. A fall below the demand zone between 0.7380 and 0.7400, which sits on the 30-day moving average, has put the bulls further on the defensive.   For you: Forex Rates: British Pound (GBP) Strengthening? Weak (EUR) Euro? GBP, NZD And AUD Supported By Monetary Policy?   As the short-term prospect turns bearish, depressed offers compound the lack of bids, driving the Aussie even lower. 0.7300 would be the next target. As the RSI recovers into the neutral area, the pair may face stiff selling pressure around the support-turned-resistance at 0.7400. GER 40 seeks support The bulls need to push above 14320 in order to turn the cautious mood around. The Dax 40 retreats as risk appetite remains subdued across equity markets. The index is still under pressure after it struggled to hold above the psychological level of 14000. The current pennant may turn out to be another distribution phase. Additionally, a break below 13900 would make the index vulnerable to a new round of sell-off. 13600 would be the next support. The bulls need to push above 14320 in order to turn the cautious mood around. Then 14600 will be the final hurdle before an extended recovery could materialize.
Powell signals Fed needs to be nimble, Canada Inflation hits near 40-year high, bitcoin tries to hold USD20k

What Moves Forex Rates? Strong US Dollar Affects British Pound (GBP), Japanese Yen (JPY) And CNH

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 22.04.2022 13:32
The world's major currencies continue to surrender to the dollar one after another. Since the start of March, the yen has lost 11.5% and fallen to a 20-year low. But just as we saw the third world economy currency stabilise, the currency of the second one went on the move. Chinese currency had previously successfully resisted the strengthening of the USD since the middle of last year, but The dollar has added over 2% to the renminbi since the start of the week, the most significant move since 2015. It is also noteworthy that the Chinese currency had previously successfully resisted the strengthening of the USD since the middle of last year, but in an abrupt move, entered the area of the extremes of the last 12 months. Read next (FxPro): Still Going Up The Price Of Crude Oil (WTI/BRENT) When Energy Stocks Will Start To Soar? | FXMAG.COM We see an equally impressive attack on the Pound. The GBPUSD broke the support at 1.3000 on Friday, and it is already losing more than 1% so far today. USDCHF reached its highest point since June 2020, exceeding 0.9550. Read next (FxPro): Want To Exchange 100 GBP To USD? GBP/USD Below 1.3000! (GBP) British Pound Weakens! GBP To USD - 17-Months-Low! | FXMAG.COM The New Zealand and Australian dollars have been declining steadily since early April, despite hawkish action and comments from respective central banks. Moreover, the export-oriented economies of these countries should benefit from the emerging commodity prices. EURUSD is trading below 1.0800, near 2020 reversal levels and maintaining a very moderate trading range The USDCAD went back to month highs in less than two days, reversing Wednesday's sharp rally and earlier gains from hawkish comments by the Bank of Canada. EURUSD is trading below 1.0800, near 2020 reversal levels and maintaining a very moderate trading range. However, the swing in GBPUSD today and USDCNH throughout the week and the USDJPY drama since early March suggests that EURUSD could be the next victim of dollar bulls.
Short Squeeze - What Is It? | Binance Academy

End Of Utopia!? Current Strength Of (USD) US Dollar Has Some Disadvantages... Does Fed Bear Them In Mind?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 09.05.2022 17:26
The US Dollar continues to attract capital from investors all over the world. But could this be a double-edged sword for US stocks? As capital flocks to the USD, this in turn hurts US multinationals as they need to convert their weak foreign currency profits back into USD. The USD safe-haven trade may eventually trigger a broad and deep selloff in US stocks. As the USD continues to strengthen, corporate profits for US multinationals will shrink or disappear. US Multinational $1 Billion Revenue Example: $1 billion in revenue-generating a 15% net profit with a net neutral 0% currency translation equals a $150 million profit. $1 billion in revenue-generating a 15% net profit with a negative -15% unfavorable currency translation expense equals a $0 profit! In addition, the impact of inflation on the global consumer will lead to a pullback in consumer spending which will further reduce corporate revenues and profits. The combination of the global currency dislocation along with the economic cool off will bring on a global recession. The following chart by Finviz shows the percentage the USD has appreciated against all the major global currencies year to date: Let’s review a few of these primary currencies to get a better idea of how much capital is migrating out of each of these countries and into the US dollar.       CANADIAN DOLLAR LOSING -7.29% The Canadian Dollar CAD peaked in the first week of June 1, 2021. The Canadian economy has benefited greatly from soaring energy and commodity prices, strengthening metals markets, and strong real estate prices. But despite this economic strength capital is still migrating out of the CAD and into the USD. INVESCO CURRENCY SHARES • CANADIAN DOLLAR TRUST ETF • ARCA • WEEKLY SWITZERLAND FRANC LOSING -12.53% The Switzerland Franc CHF peaked in the first week of January 6, 2021. The CHF has long been considered a safe haven for global capital during times of risk-off global market stress. The primary factor hurting the CHF is its current fiscal policy and negative interest rate of -0.75%. Therefore, the USD is still the preferred safe-haven currency due to CHF’s negative rate. Capital continues to flow out of the CHF into the USD. INVESCO CURRENCY SHARES • SWISS FRANC TRUST ETF • ARCA • WEEKLY BRITISH POUND LOSING -13.87% The British Pound GBP peaked in the first week of May 24, 2021. The GBP was the primary global reserve currency in the 19th century and the first half of the 20th century. However, that status ended when the UK almost bankrupted itself fighting World Wars I & 2. Since that time the US dollar has replaced the GBP as the primary reserve currency. The USD has a similar interest rate to the GBP and is also benefiting from its strong presence in energy and commodity markets. Therefore, the GBP is experiencing capital flows out of its currency and into the USD. INVESCO CURRENCY SHARES • BRITISH POUND TRUST ETF • ARCA • WEEKLY JAPANESE YEN LOSING -23.76% The Japanese Yen JPY peaked in the first week of March 2, 2020. The JPY has also long been considered a safe haven for global capital during times of risk-off global market stress. However, the primary factor hurting the JPY is its current fiscal policy and negative interest rate of -0.10%. Therefore, the USD is still the preferred safe-haven currency due to the JPY’s negative rate. Capital continues to flow out of the JPY into the USD. INVESCO CURRENCY SHARES • JAPANESE YEN TRUST ETF • ARCA • WEEKLY How We CAN HELP YOU Navigate Current Market Trends At TheTechnicalTraders.com, my team and I can do these things to assist you: We reduce your FOMO and manage your emotions. We have proven trading strategies for bull and bear markets. We provide quality trades you can trust. We tell you when to take profits and exit trades. We save you time with our research. We provide above-average returns/growth over the long run. We have consistent growth with low volatility/risks. We make trading and investing safer, more profitable, and educational. Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens. Historically, bonds have served as one of these safe-havens, but that is not proving to be the case this time around. So if bonds are off the table, what bond alternatives are there and how can they be deployed in a bond replacement strategy? We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
S&P 500 And Nasdaq Declined | The US Data Triggered Some Members Of Fed

Rising Inflation In The US Means Rising US Dollar (USD), Chinese COVID Policy Seems To Be Almost Impossible | US inflation, a make-or-break moment for investors! | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 11.05.2022 11:12
It’s D-day of the week: we will see whether inflation in the US started easing in April after hitting a four-decade high in March, and if yes, by how much. A soft inflation read will come as a relief that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) efforts to tame inflation start paying off, but any disappointment could send another shock wave to the market. In the FX, the US dollar extended gains, despite the easing yields yesterday, as the risk-off flows continued supporting the greenback For now, activity on Fed funds futures give almost 90% chance for a 50-bp hike in FOMC’s June meeting; there is a lot left to be priced for a 75bp hike, if the data doesn’t please. To avoid pricing in a 75bp hike at next FOMC meeting, we must see an encouraging cooldown in inflation. In the FX, the US dollar extended gains, despite the easing yields yesterday, as the risk-off flows continued supporting the greenback.   The barrel of US crude tipped a toe below the $100 level on news that the Europeans softened their sanctions proposal against the Russian oil The levels against the majors like euro, yen and sterling remained flat, but the positive pressure in the dollar, combined with Turkey’s unconventional monetary policy start giving signs of exhaustion. The dollar-try advanced past the 15 mark, and the government asked institutions to make their FX operations within the most liquid trading hours. Two weeks ago, the bank had revised its regulations on banks' reserve requirements, applying them to the asset side of balance sheets in order to strengthen its macroprudential policy toolkit. The latter required reserves now pressure the overnight rates to the upside – suggesting that the unconventional policy is near limits. Energy are up and down… but mostly up. The barrel of US crude tipped a toe below the $100 level on news that the Europeans softened their sanctions proposal against the Russian oil, but oil is already above the $100 this morning. The upside potential is fading due to slower global growth prospects, and the Chinese lockdown. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:24 All eyes on US inflation data! 2:30 Market update 3:50 Strong US dollar threatens lira stability 5:50 Risks in energy markets remain tilted to the upside 6.35 Why Chinese zero Covid policy won’t work 8.07 Coinbase hit hard by crypto meltdown 8:39 Energy, still the best option for investors Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.  
The Euro Will Strengthen, But Questions Remain About What To Do Next

British Pound (GBP) yawns after Bailey (BoE) warnings | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 16.05.2022 23:11
The British pound is trading quietly on Monday, as the currency markets have started the week with a whimper. BoE’s Bailey says dark times ahead BoE Governor Bailey testified before lawmakers earlier today, and his message was a grim one. The BoE has predicted that soaring inflation could top 10%, and Bailey today admitted that “this is a bad situation to be in”.  Bailey said that the Ukraine war could cause a further energy shock and that his concern about the surge in food prices was “apocalyptic”. Bailey gets full credit for not sugar-coating what is a difficult economic situation, but his candidness will not help support the struggling pound, which hasn’t posted a winning week since mid-April. I appreciate Bailey’s honesty, but the BoE has run into a credibility problem with its rate policy in recent months, and it’s questionable whether his message that dark times lie ahead is the way to restore confidence in the central bank. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM The economic picture in the US is brighter, but the Fed’s aggressive policy will lead to a slowdown in growth. The big question is can Fed Chair Powell guide the economy to a soft landing and avoid a recession. On Sunday, Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for US growth to 2.4% in 2022 and 1.6% in 2023, down from 2.6% and 2.2%, respectively. Federal Reserve officials last week reiterated their intention to deliver 0.50% rate increases at the June and July meetings, which will help limit US dollar gains. At the same time, any US data that is worse than expected could lead to calls for a hike of 0.75%, which would be bullish for the US dollar. GBP/USD Technical 1.2199 remains under pressure in support. Below, there is support at 1.2056 GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.2272 and 1.2418   Read next: (TRX) TRON USD Decentralised Blockchain Platform That Focuses On Entertainment And Content Sharing. Altcoins: A Deep Look Into The TRON Network | FXMAG.COM This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Week Ahead – Rate hikes keep coming - 12.08.2022

British pound soars on strong jobs data | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 17.05.2022 21:47
The British pound continues to rally on Tuesday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2463 in the European session, up 1.15% on the day. UK employment numbers sparkle The tight UK labor market is getting even tighter, as reflected in the March employment report. The unemployment rate fell to 3.7% (3.8% prior), below the 3.8% forecast and its lowest level since 1974. Employment change jumped by 83 thousand, smashing the estimate of 5 thousand. Wage growth in Q1 was up 7%, but without bonuses, the gain was only 4.2%. This means that inflation is far outstripping wage growth and exacerbating the cost of living crisis for UK households. The UK continues to grapple with a severe shortage of workers, as Covid resulted in some 500 thousand workers leaving their jobs, and many continental European workers left the UK after Brexit. For the first time on record, there are more job vacancies than unemployed persons in the UK. This economic landscape leaves the Bank of England stuck between a rock and a hard place. The central bank must raise rates to contain soaring inflation, but this could tip the economy into a recession if the BoE is unable to guide it to a ‘soft landing’. Governor Bailey didn’t pull any punches on Monday in his testimony before lawmakers, saying that he was extremely concerned about inflation. We’ll get a look at UK inflation on Wednesday, with the markets bracing for a reading of 9.1% in April. I expect the inflation report to be a market-mover for the pound – a stronger than expected release will likely send the pound higher, while a weak release would put strong pressure on the currency. Today’s employment report has raised expectations that the BoE will have to remain aggressive with its rate cycle, which has pushed UK yields and the British pound sharply higher. If the US/UK rate differential continues to narrow, the pound should be able to make up ground against the dollar. . GBP/USD Technical 1.2275 is providing support. Below, there is support at 1.2143 GBP/USD has broken above resistance at 1.2393. Above, there is resistance at 1.2525 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
British Pound: Oanda Expects That If Liz Truss Doesn't Change The Plan, The UK Inflation May Go Up!

GBP/USD - British Pound Finally Shows Its Potential, But US Dollar Can Be Supported By Fed Shortly. USD/JPY Is Likely To Become A "Boring" Battle, Gold Price (XAUUSD) Looks Like It Can't Get Any Higher | Orbex

Jing Ren Jing Ren 18.05.2022 09:33
GBPUSD tests daily resistance The pound surged after the UK saw a jump in average earnings over the past three months. Solid bullish momentum above 1.2400 has prompted sellers to cover their positions, exacerbating volatility in the process. The daily resistance at 1.2640 coincides with the 30-day moving average and is an important supply zone. Its breach could pave the way for a bullish reversal in the weeks to come. In the meantime, an overbought RSI may cause a pullback as intraday buyers take profit. 1.2310 is the closest support. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM USDJPY enters narrowing consolidation The yen recouped some losses after Japan’s GDP growth beat expectations in Q1. The US dollar is taking a breather after a prolonged rally. The latest retreat has found support at 127.50 over the 30-day moving average. Medium-term sentiment would stay upbeat as long as the price remains above this demand zone. 130.80 from a previously faded rebound is a key resistance and a bullish breakout could resume the rally towards 133.00. 128.70 is the immediate support for the current consolidation. Follow us on Google News! XAUUSD tests critical floor Gold inched higher as the US dollar index pulled back from a two-decade high. The price action has stabilised near January’s lows at 1790. A bullish RSI divergence indicates a loss of bearish momentum in this critical demand area, triggering a buy-the-dip behaviour. Sellers’ profit-taking could drive the precious metal higher. A bounce above 1858 may trigger an even broader short-covering. On the downside, a fall below 1790 would send the price into bearish territory with December’s lows (1750) as the next stop. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM
Investors' Concerns About The Coming Recession In The UK, Will GBP/USD Pair Reach Its Lowest Level In History?

British Pound (GBP) yawns on mixed retail sales | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 20.05.2022 12:03
The British pound is drifting on Friday, after showing unusually strong volatility this week. The pound rebounded on Thursday, racking up gains of 1.06% and briefly breaking above the symbolic 1.25 line. UK retail sales showed a strong gain in April, with a gain of 1.4% MoM. This followed a decline of 1.2% in March. However, on a yearly basis, sales volumes were 4.9% lower, as the broader picture looks grim. The monthly gain for March may have been a blip, as consumers were hit with higher household energy costs as well as an increase in taxes. Add into the mix inflation at 9.0% and possibly heading into double-digits, and it’s difficult to envision retail sales moving higher. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM Consumer confidence hits record low The GfK consumer confidence index remains deep in negative territory. The index dropped to -40 in May, down from -38 in April. How pessimistic are consumers about the economy? The previous record of -39 was set in July 2008, at the height of the global financial crisis.  Consumer confidence is considered an early, reliable signal of economic activity, and these massively poor numbers could well indicate that the UK economy is falling into recession. A GfK note summed up the grim situation, saying that the BoE is pessimistic about inflation, consumer confidence is gloomy, and there aren’t any reasons for optimism anytime soon. This certainly does not bode well for the British pound, which has plunged over 7% since the start of the year. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM The BoE finds itself playing catch-up with the inflation curve. There have been voices calling for more aggressive rate hikes than the 25-bps increments we’ve seen over the past three meetings, especially with inflation hitting 9%. The central bank has a daunting challenge, as it must raise rates to curb inflation but also needs to be mindful that the economy is still recovering from Covid and could tip into a recession due to high interest rates. GBP/USD Technical 1.2393 has switched back to support. Below, there is support at 1.2275 There is resistance at 1.2525 and 1.2643   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
A Strong Bearish Signal For The Equity Markets And A Significant Support Factor For Dollar (USD)

(USD) US Dollar’s Orderly Retreat Continues | Having A Look At EUR/USD, GBP/USD And AUD/USD | Oanda

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 25.05.2022 14:09
Recession jitters send US dollar lower The US dollar eased once again overnight, as US recession fears continue to lead to a repricing lower of Fed tightening expectations. With quantitative tightening starting next week and no signs of inflation falling, that may be more hope than reality. Nevertheless, one must respect the momentum in the short term, and the US dollar bull market correction still looks to have legs in it. ​ The dollar index fell by 0.32% to 101.77 overnight, but Asia is doing its usual countertrend moves today, pushing the dollar index back up to 101.95. The multi-year breakout line is at 102.40 today, forming initial resistance, while 101.50 and 101.00 loom as immediate supports. EUR/USD continued edging higher overnight, rising 0.42% to 1.0735 before falling by 0.28% to 1.0705 in Asia. Momentum already appears to be waning for EUR/USD, but I do not rule out at least a test of 1.0750 and 1.0825, the multi-decade breakout line. A weekly close above the latter is needed to suggest a medium-term low is in place. GBP/USD fell overnight, crushed by EUR/GBP buying, poor data and tax and political risk. It finished 0.42% lower at 1.2535 where it remains in Asia today. Sterling faces political risks, outlined above, today, and these will limit gains. It now has support at 1.2470, with a double top now at 1.2600. Even if the US dollar sell-off continues, sterling will remain euro’s poor cousin. AUD/USD remains steady at 0.7100 today, having probed the downside overnight Lower US yields saw USD/JPY fall 0.85% to 126.85 overnight where it remains in Asia, just below support, now resistance, at 127.00. A deeper selloff, potentially targeting the 125.00 support area, remains entirely possible given the market is still clearly very long USD/JPY. Once again, at those levels though, given the trajectory of US and Japan interest rates, being short becomes a dangerous game. AUD/USD remains steady at 0.7100 today, having probed the downside overnight. AUD/NZD buying is capping gains for now. A hawkish RBNZ today has sent the Kiwi dollar flying, NZD/USD jumping 0.65% to 0.6500. The rally is already showing signs of fatigue and a weekly close above 0.6550 is required to signal a potential medium-term low. Support is distant at 0.6420. Asian FX continued gaining against the US dollar overnight, but a stronger greenback in Asian time has erased those gains. A neutral USD/CNY fixing by the PBOC has given Asian markets little to go on today, with USD/CNY, USD/CNH and USD/THB rising by around 0.30%, while USD/KRW has risen by 0.10%. An impending Bank of Korea hike on Friday should limit the won’s weakness. The Malaysian ringgit looks like the most vulnerable regional currency right now, USD/MYR trading near 4.4000 today. With policy tightening gaining momentum among other Asian central banks, today’s benign inflation data reinforced that outlook. USD/MYR could potentially test 4.4500 by early next week. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
Video: A Wide Range Of Forex Pairs AUD/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD And GBP/USD Analysed By Jason Sen (DayTradeIdeas)

Video: A Wide Range Of Forex Pairs AUD/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD And GBP/USD Analysed By Jason Sen (DayTradeIdeas)

Jason Sen Jason Sen 30.05.2022 07:45
AUDUSD finally tests very strong resistance at 7135/55. Shorts need stops above 7175. A break higher this week is a buy signal targeting 7230/50. Shorts need stops above 7275. Shorts at 7135/55 target 7090 then 7060/50. Further losses test support at 7020/10. Longs need stops below 7000. USDJPY shorts at resistance is at 127.50/70 need stops above 127.80. A break higher is a buy signal targeting 128.20/30, perhaps as far as strong resistance at 128.70/90. Holding resistance is at 127.50/70 targets 127.20/00. A break below 126.80 targets 126.30/20 & eventually 125.80. EURJPY holding strong resistance at 136.50/70 (perfectly on Thursday & Friday) targets 135.60/50 for profit taking on shorts. Further losses target 135.35/25. If we continue lower look for 134.65/55 then strong support at 134.20/00 for profit taking on any shorts. We should have strong resistance again at 136.50/70. Shorts need stops above 136.95. A break higher targets 137.20/30 then 138.00/20. Read next: Altcoins: Tether (USDT), What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into The Tether Blockchain| FXMAG.COM EURUSD longs at support at 1.0670/50 start to work on the bounce towards strong resistance at 1.0800/20 for profit taking. Shorts need stops above 1.0835. Support again at 1.0670/55. Longs need stops below 1.0640. Strong support at 1.0600/1.0590. GBPUSD made a high for the day 6 pips above strong resistance at 1.2640/60. Shorts need stops above 1.2680. A break higher this week is a buy signal initially targeting 1.2725/45. Shorts at 1.2640/60 target 1.2590, perhaps as far as 1.2555/45 for profit taking. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
Central Banks' Moves And Crude Oil Market | It's Not The Best Moment For Gold Price

Crude Oil Is Said To Shape Euro To US Dollar (EUR/USD). Forex Cable (GBP/USD) May Be Supported By BoE Sooner Than Later. (USD/JPY) - Can Japanese Yen Rise? | Oanda

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 30.05.2022 13:22
Still improving risk sentiment sends US dollar lower The US dollar declined once again on Friday as improving risk sentiment continues to unwind the 2022 US dollar rally. That has spilt over into Asian markets today, with regional currencies booking some decent gains versus the greenback this morning. On Friday, the dollar index edged 0.12% lower to 101.64, losing another 0.13% to 101.50 in Asia. Support remains at 101.00, with resistance at 102.50. EUR/USD EUR/USD held steady on Friday, closing almost unchanged at 1.0735, with US dollar weakness being reflected in EMFX and the commonwealth currencies. It has gained 0.20% to 1.0755 in Asia, but overall, seems locked in a 1.0700 to 1.0800 range. Oil’s rally may temper single currency gains, with the multi-decade breakout line, today at 1.0830, still a formidable barrier. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM GBP/USD GBP/USD closed 0.20% higher at 1.2630 on Friday, adding another 0.14% to 1.2640 in Asia. GBP/USD looks set to trade in a noisy 1.2600 to 1.2700 range as the week gets underway. The government’s cost of living package may prompt faster BOE tightening, supporting the downside, while the economic slowdown continues to slow upside progress. USD/JPY USD/JPY is trading sideways, ranging each side of 127.00 as US yields trade in narrow ranges. That is likely to continue with US bond markets closed today. The chart suggests USD/JPY has further downside potential that could target 125.00. Only a move through trendline resistance at 127.80 changes the picture. AUD/USD & NZD/USD AUD/USD and NZD/USD continue to be driven entirely by swings in global risk sentiment. Another strong performance by Wall Street on Friday maintained that upward momentum and both AUD and NZD were prime beneficiaries. AUD/USD rallied by 0.85% to 0.7160, adding another 0.20% to 0.7175 today. It has resistance at 0.7260, and support at 0.7100. NZD/USD rose by 0.86% to 0.6536 on Friday, rising another 0.17% to 0.6547 today. Resistance nearby at 0.6570 opens a larger rally to 0.6650, with support at 0.6475. Read next: Altcoins: Cardano (ADA) What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into Cardano (ADA) | FXMAG.COM Asian FX rode improving investor risk sentiment higher on Friday, moves reflected throughout the EM space. Gains were led by the Chinese yuan, Korean won, and New Taiwan dollar, all gaining around 0.70%, while even the beleaguered Malaysian ringgit out in a good show, USD/MYR falling to 4.3770. Both the Indonesian rupiah and the Malaysian ringgit should find further strength on higher oil prices, even though it increases their domestic subsidy bills. Oil’s strength is likely the reason the Indian rupee has remained unchanged from Friday through today. CNY, KRW and NTD are rallying strongly today, likely boosted by China’s reopening hopes. USD/CNY, USD/KRW, and USD/NTD have fallen by around 0.80% today. However, if oil prices continue to rise this week, the rally in energy-importing Asian currencies may run out of steam. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
FX Talking - Summer of discontent keeps dollar in demand | EUR/USD | USD/JPY | GBP/USD | ING Economics

FX Talking - Summer of discontent keeps dollar in demand | EUR/USD | USD/JPY | GBP/USD | ING Economics

ING Economics ING Economics 14.06.2022 10:04
The global economy can now be characterised as one in which many central bankers are poised to hike rates more forcefully, even as growth prospects are being revised lower. Investors are now having to ask which economies can best withstand these tighter monetary conditions and which currency to back? During this summer of discontent the answer to these questions largely remains the US economy and the dollar. Unlike the supply-driven inflation suffered in Europe, price rises in the US are far more a function of demand-side factors and suggest stagflation is less of a likelihood in the US than in Europe. And with no end in sight to tight energy markets, the US remains better positioned here too. We expect the Fed to deliver at least another 175bp of hikes this year as the Fed drives real US interest rates into restrictive territory. This is not good news for global growth – but that is the point, the Fed needs to slow demand. Flatter yield curves consistent with the latter stages of the US business cycle are normally good news for the dollar. In all this means that the dollar should stay bid this summer (1.00/1.02 is possible in EUR/USD), while USD/JPY in the 135/140 region looks ready to trigger Japanese intervention. GBP/USD can move to the low 1.20s as the BoE cycle is repriced lower and the CHF should start to outperform in Europe as the SNB guides it higher. CEE FX has become more mixed. We still favour the PLN, but HUF and now CZK look more vulnerable. This will be a fragile environment for most EMFX – especially those most exposed to China. Here USD/CNY can still push higher taking most of $/Asia with it. Developed markets EUR/USD A long, hot summer for the euro Current spot: 1.0476 Both the Fed and the ECB are in hawkish mode – both battling inflation near 8%. Both are probably happy with stronger currencies. The difference is the stagflationary shock from the war in Ukraine which makes the ECB unlikely to deliver on the 150bp of tightening priced in. There is also the issue of growth differentials and what they mean for international equity flows. These could start generating some euro under-performance. EUR/USD looks biased towards the lower end of a 1.02-1.08 range this summer. It looks far too early to pick the top in the Fed cycle. Higher US real rates also spell trouble for risk assets, including EM in general. This will also lend further support to the dollar USD/JPY Official concern and stretched valuations may help JPY Current spot: 134.43 The combination of aggressive Fed tightening (we look for at least another 175bp of Fed rate hikes this year), high energy prices and BoJ dovishness has sent USD/JPY to 135. Japanese officials are now officially unhappy with the rapid pace of JPY weakness. Sensible arguments go that the BoJ cannot intervene to sell $/JPY since: a) markets are not disorderly and b) BoJ is still printing money with QQE. Yet intervention is political & one never knows whether deals get cut behind the scenes We cannot rule out USD/JPY marching towards 140 given that this is a fundamentally driven, but intervention signals are flashing amber/red. Traded USD/JPY volatility can rise further. GBP/USD Bank of England tightening expectations are extreme Current spot: 134.43 GBP/USD looks as though it can trade back down to the 1.21/22 levels – largely on the back of dollar strength. But certainly an Unexploded Bomb (UXB) for sterling is the incredibly aggressive 175bp of tightening priced into the BoE cycle for year-end. This seems very extreme given that not all the MPC were on board with May’s 25bp hike. The 16 June BoE meeting is an event risk. UK growth will struggle in 2Q, although there is increasing speculation over tax cuts coming through this Autumn – in a bid to shore up Conservative support ahead of a possible ‘23 election. We doubt a Tory leadership change or Brexit tension has too much impact on sterling – a lot of bad news is already priced. Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more This article is a part of the report by ING: Source
Tips For Traders On Short And Long Positions Of The GBP/USD Pair

How Much Is 1 EUR To USD? FX: Bristish Pound To US Dollar. Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on June 15, 2022 | InstaForex

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 15.06.2022 11:13
Relevance up to 09:00 2022-06-16 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Details of the economic calendar from June 14 Data on the UK labor market came out worse than expected. The unemployment rate increased from 3.7% to 3.8%, while the forecast assumed a decline to 3.6%. Employment in the country rose by 177,000, while jobless claims fell less than expected. In general terms, the indicators for the UK labor market are not the best. Analysis of trading charts from June 14 The EURUSD currency pair has slowed down its downward movement in the area of 1.0400. This move has led to variable turmoil, with the downside sentiment remaining among market participants. On the trading chart of the daily period, there is a gradual recovery of the downward trend relative to the recent correction. The GBPUSD currency pair has accelerated the decline after the prolongation of the medium-term downward trend. The increase in the volume of short positions led to the weakening of the pound sterling towards the psychologically important level of 1.2000. The scale of decline for three trading days amounted to about 550 points.     Economic calendar for June 15 The results of the Fed meeting are at the center of everyone's attention, where, due to a sharp increase in the inflation rate, experts are revising forecasts for the interest rate hike. Based on the last meeting, the regulator planned to continue hanging the rate by 50 basis points. The market, in turn, is concerned about rising inflation and lays down a rate increase of 75 basis points at once, which has already affected the US dollar exchange rate. Time targeting Results of the Fed meeting - 18:00 UTC Fed press conference - 18:30 UTC Trading plan for EUR/USD on June 15 Price stagnation within 1.0400/1.0500 keeps speculators on itself for a while. It can be assumed that the current stop plays the role of the accumulation of trading forces in the forthcoming acceleration in the market. Based on the above range, the best trading tactic is the outgoing momentum method, which will indicate the subsequent price move. We concretize the above into trading signals: Buy positions on the currency pair are taken into account after holding the price above the value of 1.0500 in a four-hour period. Sell positions should be considered after holding the price below 1.0400 in a four-hour period.     Trading plan for GBP/USD on June 15 The area of psychological level 1.1950/1.2000/1.2050 puts pressure on sellers. This led to a reduction in the volume of short positions and, as a result, a local pullback. Taking into account the oversold status of the pound sterling, we can assume further formation of a correction if the price holds above 1.2050 in a four-hour period. At the same time, the high interest of traders in speculative positions allows blocking the technical signal about the pound being oversold. In this case, holding the price below the value of 1.1950 in a four-hour period will lead to the subsequent inertial movement. What is reflected in the trading charts? A candlestick chart view is graphical rectangles of white and black light, with sticks on top and bottom. When analyzing each candle in detail, you will see its characteristics of a relative period: the opening price, closing price, and maximum and minimum prices. Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a stop or a price reversal may occur. These levels are called support and resistance in the market. Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price of the story unfolded. This color selection indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the quote in the future. The up/down arrows are the reference points of the possible price direction in the future. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/313480
The GBP/USD Pair Was Trading Calmly But The Volatility Still Remained Very High

FX: GBP/USD - British Pound jumps ahead of Fed, BOE meetings

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 15.06.2022 19:03
The British pound is in positive territory on Wednesday. This follows an abysmal 5-day slide which saw the pound fall as much as 600 points. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2060, up 0.53% on the day. FOMC expected to deliver 75-bp salvo All eyes are on the Federal Reserve, with the FOMC rate decision later today. The Fed is clearly under pressure as inflation surges with no peak in sight – CPI accelerated to 8.6% in April, up from 8.3% in March. This was the highest inflation rate since 1981. The Fed’s aggressive stance may shift into overdrive, with a 75-bp hike priced in by the markets at almost 100%. Just a few days ago, the most likely scenario was a 50-bps increase, but hawkish winds are blowing, and a 75-bp move will likely elicit a sharp response from the financial markets. Investors will also be closely monitoring the rate statement and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference. I would not be surprised to see the US dollar cash in with strong gains following today’s meeting. The Fed finds itself in a tough spot as it struggles to combat inflationary pressures, which are now more than four times higher than the Fed’s inflation target of 2 per cent. The price for the Fed’s aggressive rate-hike cycle could well be a recession, but Fed policy makers clearly prefer a (hopefully) short recession rather than inflation expectations becoming unanchored. The big question is will the Fed manage to guide the US economy to a soft landing as it continues to aggressively raise rates. BoE expected to hike by 25bp After the Fed is done, attention will shift to the Bank of England, which holds its policy meeting on Thursday. The likely scenario is that the cautious BoE will raise rates by a modest 25 bps, but we could see a larger hike if the Fed is overly hawkish at its meeting. With unemployment in the UK at a low level of 3.7%, the BoE has room to be more aggressive with its monetary policy. As for the British pound, a 0.25% hike won’t be of much help. If the BoE surprises with a larger rate increase, the pound would likely respond with gains. . GBP/USD Technical GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.2108 and 1.2215 There is support at 1.1916. This is followed by 1.1772, a major support level. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
The Bank Of England's (BoE) Intention To Spend £65bn To Stabilize Financial Markets

GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and significant key-levels - 15.06.2022

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 15.06.2022 22:26
Relevance up to 20:00 2022-06-16 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.   The short-term outlook turned bearish when the market went below 1.3600. This enhanced the bearish side of the market initially towards 1.3360 then 1.3200 which initiated a temporary bullish movement towards 1.3600 for a final re-test. The price level of 1.3600 corresponding to the upper limit of the ongoing bearish channel initiated an aggressive bearish movement towards 1.2980 - 1.3000. The price level of 1.3000 stood a transient Support where a short-term consolidation movement existed. This happened just before two successive bearish dips could take place towards 1.2550 and 1.2160. Considerable bullish rejection was expressed around 1.2200. However, the pair failed to persist above 1.2550. This was needed to abolish the short-term bullish scenario for sometime. Instead, a quick bullish movement was executed towards 1.2650 where extensive bearish rejection existed. The GBP/USD pair remained under bearish pressure to challenge the new low around 1.2150 again which was recently bypassed. Price action around the current price levels of 1.2000 should be watched for a possible intraday BUY entry. Otherwise, further bearish continuation may pursue towards 1.1750 if sufficient bearish momentum is maintained Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/280271
British Pound (GBP) Touched The Below-1.05 Levels!

1 GBP Price To Increase!? Is British Pound Going To Rally!? How Has USDCHF Changed After SNB Meeting? | Saxo Bank

John Hardy John Hardy 17.06.2022 14:47
Summary:  The Bank of Japan continues to swim against the stream of global central bank tightening as it maintained course overnight with its policy mix of negative yields and yield-curve-control, triggering a wave of fresh JPY weakening that was only moderated slightly by a sharp drop in US treasury yields. Elsewhere, the Swiss franc remains firm after the SNB-inspired spike and sterling is taking a stand after the Bank of England meeting yesterday. FX Trading focus: BoJ not for turning, GBP takes a stand. USD status check. The Bank of Japan refused to budge overnight, standing pat on its policy of yield-curve-control and announcing daily operations in the bond market to defend the policy, with no guidance suggesting a change of course, though a brief comment on foreign exchange was inserted into the policy statement: Concerning risks to the outlook, there remain extremely high uncertainties for Japan's economy, including the course of COVID-19 at home and abroad and its impact, developments in the situation surrounding Ukraine, and developments in commodity prices and overseas economies. In this situation, it is necessary to pay due attention to developments in financial and foreign exchange markets and their impact on Japan's economic activity and prices. That suggests that there is some level of JPY weakness at which the Bank of Japan may be forced to revisit its policy commitments, but that we aren’t there yet. Two key points to make in the wake of this announcement: first, additional JPY weakness from here is likely only a function of global yields continuing to trend higher, something we did not at all see yesterday as a weak batch of US data drove a strong rally in US treasuries and punched the US 10-year benchmark yield back toward the pivotal 3.20% area. Second is the CNHJPY rate, which has traded north of 20.00 in the wake of this BoJ meeting and whether China is set to make another move to prevent further JPY weakness relative to the renminbi after it appeared that the threat of the 20.00 level prompted China to weaken CNH sharply relative to the US dollar after a long period of stagnant USDCNH price action just at the point when CNHJPY hit 20.00 back in April. Elsewhere, we continue to digest the repercussions of the Swiss National Bank 0-basis point rate hike, which continues to reverberate. While the Bank of Japan pulls in the opposite direction as a country that is willing to risk further deterioration in the real value of its currency, the SNB has done the opposite with this move, allowing itself to front-run the ECB and establishing the franc’s purchasing power as a key consideration and going a long way to buying real yield credibility. Looking ahead, the concern will likely arise as the cycle plays out that the Fed simply can’t raise rates sufficiently drive solidly positive US real yields. USDCHF has suffered a complete derailing of the former up-trend as discussed in the chart below and when looking at the USD versus European currencies, at least, from SEK and GBP to CHF and EUR, we could suddenly be at a turning point here. Where is that turning point “confirmed”? We are already there in USDCHF, but a broader, at least tactical turn lower in the USD would require a pull higher and close above 1.0600 in EURUSD and perhaps 1.2500 in GBPUSD (the day after I thought GBPUSD might be in danger of a meltdown below 1.2000 on the small BoE hike…). Until then, the USD sell-off may be a one-off result of titanic USDCHF flows on the SNB decision. Chart: USDCHFThe bulls found their case broken all in one go in the wake of the SNB meeting, as USDCHF has been crushed seemingly irrevocably lower, suddenly creating a double-top formation. But the huge brushback may not yet lead significantly lower unless the USD is capitulating elsewhere (levels for other major USD pairs noted above) and the full break down here requires a capitulation down through the 0.9545 low and the old range highs below 0.9475. Source: Saxo Group Sterling rallied hard yesterday in the wake of the Bank of England meeting yesterday, with UK rates and the currency focusing more on the hawkish guidance the meeting produced rather than due to the small 25-basis point hike. The bank said it would react “forcefully” if inflation doesn’t develop as hoped (which will take some doing – the Bank of England expecting the CPI to hit north of 11.0% before falling back after October) which suggests the willingness to hike by 50 basis points even if the economic outlook is not promising. The price action post-BoE took GBPUSD well away from the cycle lows of 1.2000 posted earlier this week, trading as high as 1.2406 late yesterday, just above a major local 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent sell-off at 1.2387 and far above the prior low-water mark from May of 1.2156. As noted above, a full reversal in GBPUSD requires another rally surge through 1.2500, while the bears will only feel comfortable here again if the price action punches back down through 1.2200. Elsewhere, sterling hopefuls should have a look at EURGBP, where the latest leg higher above 0.8600 has been sharply reversed, carving out a more well-defined reversal. Watching the 0.8500 area for whether we follow through lower and back into the range extending below 0.8300 again there. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength. The JPY is reversing sharply back lower after last night’s BoJ – note the huge new momentum in CHF, while sterling is trying to shift out of negative territory in broad terms. CAD looks very heavy. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.Interesting to note sterling pushing back and trying to flip to a positive trend against not only JPY, but also AUD and CAD here. Elsewhere, watching 1.3000 on the USDCAD and noting AUDCAD rolling over – is CAD in for a broader drubbing? Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1200 – Poland May Core CPI 1230 – Canada May Teranet/National Bank Home Price Index 1245 – US Fed Chair Powell to make opening remarks at a conference 1315 – US May Industrial Production / Capacity Utilization 1430 – UK Bank of England Chief Economist Pill to speak Source: FX Update: BoJ not for turning. GBP takes a stand. | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
Podcast: The Situation In Ukraine Helps The European Market, The Yena's Situation

Have Tech Stocks Plunged!? FX: So Bank Of Japan Seems To Delay Supporting JPY, British Pound (GBP) Rallied| Stock Markets: S&P 500 Lost 3.2%

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 17.06.2022 12:40
Summary:  The Bank of Japan continues to swim against the stream as it insisted on maintaining its yield-curve-control and negative policy rate at the meeting overnight, with daily operations to defend the yield cap on Japanese government bonds. Elsewhere, US equity markets continued to new lows even as US treasuries found strong support as a batch of weak US data points raises concerns on the US economic outlook.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures fully reversed and more the FOMC pump with S&P 500 futures closing at the 3,671 level yesterday down 3.2%, while technology stocks fell even more. The current drawdown is now the second deepest at the same time into the drawdown compared to previous historical drawdowns underscoring the seriousness of the current market regime. Initial jobless claims weakened yesterday, and the Philly Fed survey showed significant downward pressure on new orders hitting levels typical of recessions. The fear of recession could short-term keep a lid on interest rates and thus ironically support equities and maybe cause a mild rebound over the coming weeks. The VIX forward curve remains well behaved suggesting no panic yet in US equities. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI.I) and China’s CSI300 (000300.I) The indices were up more than 1% despite ugly selloffs in overseas markets overnight. The fall in property prices in the top 70 cities slowed to -0.2% m/m vs April -0.3%.  Property prices in Tier-1 cities rose 0.4% m/m and the declines in Tier-2 and lower-tier cities moderated. On the other hand, JD.COM’s (09618) JD Retail CEO told Bloomberg that recovery in consumption in China had been slow from the reopening of cities, such as Shanghai. The Company was expecting that it would take a long time for household consumption to recover as the economy and household income had been severely hit over this wave of lockdown. EURGBP and GBPUSD Sterling rallied hard yesterday in the wake of the Bank of England meeting yesterday on the guidance the meeting produced rather than due to the smaller 25-basis point hike. its reversal yesterday took GBPUSD well away from the cycle lows of 1.2000 posted earlier this week, trading as high as 1.2406 late yesterday, just above a major local 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent sell-off at 1.2387 and far above the prior low-water mark from May of 1.2156. A full reversal in GBPUSD requires another rally surge through 1.2500. Elsewhere, sterling hopefuls should have a look at EURGBP, where the latest leg higher above 0.8600 has been sharply reversed, suggesting a more well-defined reversal. Watching the 0.8500 area for whether we follow through lower and back into the range extending below 0.8300 again. USDJPY and JPY pairs With the Bank of Japan voting 8-1 to maintain course and the 0.25% cap on 10-year JGB yields, the JPY weakened sharply after a bout of speculation this week that Governor Kuroda and company might relent on its policy and bring a sharp resetting of the JPY higher. In the background, ironically, a powerful rally in global bonds yesterday was a JPY-supportive development that has eased the JPY-negative impact of the overnight BoJ decision. The BoJ statement did say that the Bank needs to pay attention to the FX level, from which one might infer that there is a JPY weakness level that the BoJ would find unacceptable and could prompt a change of course in the future. From here, the only route to a higher JPY is via a new drop in bond yields and shift away from CB tightening elsewhere or if the Bank of Japan is seen as giving up on its policy at a later date, possibly on coming inflation releases and risks of a weaker JPY raising the cost of living to an unacceptable degree. Crude oil (OILUKAUG22 & OILUSJUL22) Crude oil is heading for its first weekly decline in six with global growth concerns and prolonged lockdowns in China being the main catalyst. On top of that the short-term technical outlook has weakened following several failed attempts to break higher, but given the tight supply outlook, highlighted by the IEA earlier in the week. Support in Brent is likely to emerge already between $116 and $113.25. NY Harbor Diesel (HOc1) and gasoil (GASOILUKJUL22) both trades higher on the week, a reflection of the tightness that despite growth concerns, is likely to keep the energy sector supported.  Gold (XAUUSD)  Gold remains rangebound following a two-day rally that was supported by US growth concerns and a continued rout in cryptos and global stock markets. Together with another dose of weak U.S. data (see below) they helped send US treasury yields and the dollar lower on Thursday, thereby easing some of the recent pressure on bullion.  Total holdings in bullion-backed ETFs have declined by less than 0.25% this past week, a strong sign that investors look to gold for protection against the rout in global markets, together with increased focus on the need to hedge against the risk of stagflation.  On a relative basis gold’s year-to-date outperformance against the S&P 500 has reached 24%, long-end bonds 26% and 75% against blockchain (BKCH:arcx). US Treasuries (TLT, IEF) US treasuries rallied hard yesterday amidst ugly sentiment in the equity market and on a set of weak US data points pointing to a decelerating housing sector (more below), with weekly jobless claims remaining near the highs of the last few months. The US 10-year treasury yield has declined back to the pivotal area around 3.20%, which was the cycle high before the latest surge toward 3.50%. An extension of the rally that takes yields significantly back below that 3.20% mark would suggest that we have reached a cycle peak for now and further consolidation is set to follow, perhaps on concerns for an incoming recession. What is going on? Bank of Japan defies the global tightening wave The Bank of Japan maintained the negative 0.10% policy rate today, confirming that it won't join the Federal Reserve and other major global central banks in tightening monetary policy. The Japanese central bank will keep its target for the 10-year Japanese government-bond yield at+0.25% and announced daily operations to ensure the cap on yields is maintained. While the central bank said we will take additional easing measures without hesitation if needed, there was a rare reference to the yen weakness. Swiss National Bank surprises with 50 basis point hike yesterday The Swiss National Bank, according to surveys, was not expected to hike rates yesterday, though a rapidly growing minority of observers were looking for a rate rise. The hike of 50 basis points brought the policy rate to –0.25% and makes it clear that the SNB is happy to separate itself from ECB policy and allow the CHF to strengthen as one of the tools to combat rising inflation risks in the country. EURCHF sold off below 1.0200 after trading above 1.0400 ahead of the decision. USDCHF slid to lows of 0.9632 from above parity the day before the decision. The Bank of England hikes 25 basis points, sharpens forward guidance language The majority of observers were looking for the 25-basis point move from the BoE, with some residual uncertainty on whether the bank might hike by more due to the large Fed rate hike this week and the weakness in sterling. Three MPC members of the nine voting wanted a 50-bp hike. At the same time, the BoE predicted that CPI would peak slightly above 11% in October, said that it would respond “forcefully” on any signs of worsening inflation, language that kept the short end of the UK yield curve pinned near the cycle highs. China centric commodities remain under pressure China centric commodities such as iron ore SCON2), coal and copper (COPPERUSSEP22) remain under pressure after China advised its covid restrictions probably won’t ease until next year. In addition, the recent spate of weaker than expected economic US data combined with central banks stepping up their fight to combat inflation have raised concerns about the outlook for global growth in general. US economic indicators weaken US building permits and housing starts eased in May to 1.695mn and 1.549mn respectively while the initial jobless claims were at 229k versus 217k expected. Further, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey printed a negative figure of -3.3 for June, the first such contraction since May 2020. More so, the future activity index was contractionary for the first time since the GFC. Adobe shares slip 5% in extended trading on revenue outlook miss As we highlighted on our podcast yesterday Adobe’s earnings were a test of business investment in marketing and content activities. While the business remains sticky the company put out a revenue outlook at $17.7bn vs est. $17.9bn due some demand weakness, Russia impact and USD headwinds.   What are we watching next? US recession concerns rising The mix of data this week generally raises concerns that the US economy is decelerating, but the evidence is patchy and will need confirmation for this to become a a more entrenched theme. At the same time, equity traders have to figure out whether they should celebrate weak data as something that will eventually lead US yields lower and see the pace of Fed tightening eventually reversing or fret weak data because of the implications for corporate profits. The next US data points of interesting include the preliminary Services and Manufacturing PMI surveys for June next week. Fed blackout period ending The Fed speakers will be back in action as the blackout period ends. Chair Powell is speaking later today at the inaugural conference on the International Roles of the US Dollar. Other Fed speakers are due as well including Esther George who voted for a 50bps rate hike this week. Earnings Watch Next week’s earnings calendar is light but there are three important earnings releases to watch and those are Lennar, FedEx, and Accenture that all will give insights into the US housing market, logistics, and recruitment dynamics. Monday: Kanzhun Tuesday: Lennar Thursday: FedEx, Accenture, Darden Restaurants, FactSet Friday: Carnival, China Gas, CarMax Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0900 – Eurozone May Final CPI 1200 – Poland May Core CPI 1230 – Canada May Teranet/National Bank Home Price Index 1245 – US Fed Chair Powell to make opening remarks at a conference 1315 – US May Industrial Production / Capacity Utilization 1430 – UK Bank of England Chief Economist Pill to speak Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – June 17, 2022 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
Poland: Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) Decreased

How Is GBP/USD Doing? British pound pares post-BoE gains | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 17.06.2022 15:40
Pound jumps after BoE rate hike The pound had a wild day on Thursday, trading in a 350-point range. Sterling traded in a 300-point range overnight, with markets not quite sure to make of the BoE’s 0.25% rate increase. In the end, the pound received a thumbs-up and posted a gain of 1.45%.  The rate hike, which was the fifth in a row, was indeed modest, but investors liked that the BoE signalled that more rate hikes were on the way. As well, the MPC’s split 6-3 decision (3 members voted for a 0.50% hike) no doubt sent a signal that the BoE could provide a hawkish pivot if inflation does not peak. The BoE has warned of a recession and has forecast that inflation will top 11%, making it difficult to feel reassured by the central bank, but it appears that with the MPC unanimously voting to raise rates at the meeting, investors had something to feel positive about. The US dollar has shown that it can recover quickly and the risk for the pound remains tilted to the downside, with dark clouds hovering above the UK economy. GDP fell by 0.3% in April after a 0.1% decline in March, the first back-to-back contractions since March 2020, at the start of the Covid pandemic. The OECD has forecast that the UK economy will grow by 3.6% this year, but will stagnate in 2023, which would make it the worst-performing G-7 economy in 2023. In a week of dramatic central bank decisions, the Federal Reserve won the highlight of the week. The Fed delivered a 0.75% salvo, the first since 1994, bringing rates to a target range of 1.50-1.75%. The Fed downgraded its US growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023, but insisted that there would be no recession. Some analysts would beg to disagree, but the financial markets were relieved, as Fed Chair Powell said he didn’t expect 0.75% rate hikes to become common. The move is a clear signal that the Fed plans to use all available tools to wrestle down inflation, which has hit a 40-year high. . GBP/USD Technical GBP/USD has support at 1.2215 and 1.2016 There is resistance at 1.2407 and 1.2514     This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. British pound pares post-BoE gains - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Investors' Concerns About The Coming Recession In The UK, Will GBP/USD Pair Reach Its Lowest Level In History?

FX Cable (GBPUSD): Technical analysis of GBP/USD for June 17, 2022 | InstaForex

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 17.06.2022 16:14
Relevance up to 15:00 2022-06-18 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. The GBP/USD pair is at an all-time low against the dollar around the spot of 1.1933. The GBP/USD pair is inside in downward channel. Closing below the major resistance (1.2342 - 61.8% of Fibonacci) could assure that GBP/USD will move lower towards cooling new lows. The GBP/USD pair is continuing dropping by market cap at 3% in a day, 16.33% in a week, and 61.09% in a month, and is trading at 1.2230 after it reached 1.2186 earlier. The GBP/USD pair has been set below the strong resistance 1.2342, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This resistance has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an downtrend. RSI (14) sees major descending resistance line acting as resistance to push price down from here (1.2342). Equally important, the RSI and the moving average (100) are still calling for an downtrend. Therefore, the market indicates a bullish opportunity at the level of 1.2264 in the H1 chart. Also, if the trend is buoyant, then the currency pair strength will be defined as following: GBP is in an uptrend and USD is in a downtrend. The market is likely to show signs of a bearish trend around the spot of 1.2342 and/or 1.2264. Sell orders are recommended below the area of 1.2264 with the first target at the price of 1.2186; and continue towards 1.2089 in order to test the last bearish wave. The descending movement is likely to begin from the level 1.2264 with 1.2186 and 1.2089 seen as targets. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend, because the GBP/USD pair is trading in a bearish trend from the new resistance line of 1.2264 towards the major support level at 1.2089 in order to test it. If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 1.2089, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 1.2089. On the other hand, if the GBP/USD fails to break through the support price of 1.2089 today, the market will rise further to 1.2342 in coming hours. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/280655 Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/280655
The Bank Of England's (BoE) Intention To Spend £65bn To Stabilize Financial Markets

FX: Will (GBP) British Pound Strengthen For Good!? GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and significant key-levels | InstaForex

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 17.06.2022 22:54
Relevance up to 22:00 2022-06-18 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.   The short-term outlook turned bearish when the market went below 1.3600. This enhanced the bearish side of the market initially towards 1.3360 then 1.3200 which initiated a temporary bullish movement towards 1.3600 for a final re-test. The price level of 1.3600 corresponding to the upper limit of the ongoing bearish channel initiated an aggressive bearish movement towards 1.2980 - 1.3000. The price level of 1.3000 stood a transient Support where a short-term consolidation movement existed. This happened just before two successive bearish dips could take place towards 1.2550 and 1.2160. Considerable bullish rejection was expressed around 1.2200. However, the pair failed to persist above 1.2550. This was needed to abolish the short-term bullish scenario for sometime. Instead, a quick bullish movement was executed towards 1.2650 where extensive bearish rejection existed. The GBP/USD pair remained under bearish pressure to challenge the new low around 1.2150 again which was temporarily bypassed before Immediate bullish rejection could brin the pair back above 1.2150 again. Bullish persistence above 1.2300 will probably enable further bullish continuation towards 1.2650 where further decisions can be taken. On the other hand, another bearish visit may be expected to challenge 1.1950 again if sufficient bearish momentum is expressed.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/280669
The GBP/USD Pair Was Trading Calmly But The Volatility Still Remained Very High

Pound steady after rough week | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 20.06.2022 16:47
The British pound is slightly higher at the start of the week, and I expect a quiet session, with US markets closed for a holiday. British pound under pressure There was plenty of volatility from GBP/USD last week, as the currency started the week with gains, only to reverse directions and end the week in the red, the third losing week in a row. Perhaps the biggest red flag from the pound’s slide was the break below the symbolic 1.20 level last week, for the first time since 2020. The pound has been hammered in 2022, plunging as much as 1500 points. The BoE rate hike of 0.25% on Thursday failed to impress the markets, with GBP/USD sliding 1.37% in the Thursday session. Three of the nine MPC members voted for a 0.50% increase, and it appears that the 0.25% was too feeble a move by the BoE, even though the benchmark rate is now at its highest level since 2009. The markets have priced in a 60% chance of a 0.50% rise at the next meeting in August, and there will be strong pressure for the BoE to deliver a 0.50% salvo unless inflation unexpectedly begins to ease. The UK releases May CPI on Wednesday, with an estimate of 9.1%, up slightly from the April reading of 9.0%. The dark clouds hovering above the UK economy are not good news for the struggling pound. GDP fell by 0.3% in April after a 0.1% decline in March, the first back-to-back contractions since March 2020, at the start of the Covid pandemic. J.P. Morgan said on Friday that the likelihood of a recession in the UK has increased over the next year or two, warning that a recession in the US would spill over to the UK. . GBP/USD Technical GBP/USD has support at 1.2187 and 1.1969 There is resistance at 1.2441 and 1.2659   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Pound steady after rough week - MarketPulseMarketPulse
The GBP/USD Pair Was Trading Calmly But The Volatility Still Remained Very High

FX: What Is Cable? British Pound To US Dollar (GBPUSD). Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for June 21, 2022

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 21.06.2022 10:20
Relevance up to 09:00 2022-06-22 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair has been seen steadily moving towards the technical resistance located at the level of 1.2468, just where the main channel lower line is located. The bulls are temporary in change of the market, the momentum is strong and positive, so after the pull-back to the nearest technical support is done, the price keeps bouncing up. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.2281 and 1.2207. Nevertheless, the supply zone located between the levels of 1.2618 - 1.2697 is still the main obstacle for bulls that needs to be broken if the rally is expected to be continued.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.2922 WR2 - 1.2665 WR1 - 1.2442 Weekly Pivot - 1.2193 WS1 - 1.1971 WS2 - 1.1712 WS3 - 1.1494 Trading Outlook: The price broke below the level of 1.3000 quite long time ago, so the bears enforced and confirmed their control over the market in the long term. The Cable is way below 100 and 200 WMA , so the bearish domination is clear and there is no indication of trend termination or reversal. The bulls are now trying to start the corrective cycle after a big Pin Bar candlestick pattern was made last week. The next long term target for bears is seen at the level of 1.1989. Please remember: trend is your friend.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/281021
The GBP/USD Pair Was Trading Calmly But The Volatility Still Remained Very High

FX Cable Chart (GBP/USD) May Surprise You! Let's Have A Look How British Pound Is Doing Against US Dollar Ahead Of UK Inflation Rate| Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 21.06.2022 22:23
The pound is having a quiet week, after some sharp swings last week. Monday was a holiday in the US, and it was a quiet session for the US dollar. The currency markets are calm today as well, with the exception of the sinking Japanese yen. British pound eyes CPI Last week was the turn of the central banks to perform on stage, with the Fed, BoE and SNB all raising rates. All three central banks are keeping a close eye on rising inflation and tightening policy in order to wrestle down inflation. The BoE has been accused of raising a white flag with regard to inflation, and last week’s tepid rate hike of 0.25% won’t silence the critics. The UK releases the May inflation report on Wednesday, with headline CPI expected to nudge higher to 9.1%, up from 9.0% in April. The BoE estimates that inflation will peak above 11%, sometime later this year. With the BoE grimly predicting that inflation will hit double-digits, the cost of living crisis, which is already bad, is poised to get even worse. This has led to inflation expectations continuing to accelerate, and the UK rail strike, the biggest in 30 years, is a reflection of workers taking extreme action in the face of rising inflation. Consumer confidence is down, and a drop and consumer spending would be disastrous for an economy that may be headed for a recession. In the US, Fed Chair Powell will testify on Capitol Hill on Wednesday and Thursday, and the ratings should be high, following the Fed’s largest rate hike since 1994. Fed members Barkin and Mester will speak later today, and the markets will be listening, looking for insights regarding upcoming rate hikes. . GBP/USD Technical GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2292. Above, we have resistance at 1.2441  There is support at 1.2187 and 1.1969 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. British pound calm ahead of inflation - MarketPulseMarketPulse
The GBP/USD Pair Was Trading Calmly But The Volatility Still Remained Very High

FX Cable: Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for June 22, 2022 | InstaForex

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.06.2022 08:55
Relevance up to 07:00 2022-06-23 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair has been seen steadily moving towards the technical resistance located at the level of 1.2468, just where the main channel lower line is located. The bulls managed to hit the level of 1.2323 and then the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern occurred and soon after that the price fell out of the acceleration channel. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.2207 and 1.2165. Nevertheless, the supply zone located between the levels of 1.2618 - 1.2697 is still the main obstacle for bulls that needs to be broken if the rally is expected to be continued.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.2922 WR2 - 1.2665 WR1 - 1.2442 Weekly Pivot - 1.2193 WS1 - 1.1971 WS2 - 1.1712 WS3 - 1.1494 Trading Outlook: The price broke below the level of 1.3000 quite long time ago, so the bears enforced and confirmed their control over the market in the long term. The Cable is way below 100 and 200 WMA , so the bearish domination is clear and there is no indication of trend termination or reversal. The bulls are now trying to start the corrective cycle after a big Pin Bar candlestick pattern was made last week. The next long term target for bears is seen at the level of 1.1989. Please remember: trend is your friend.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/281201
The GBP/USD Pair Was Trading Calmly But The Volatility Still Remained Very High

GBP/USD: Pound Remains Under Pressure After Inflation Report

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.06.2022 15:58
Relevance up to 06:00 2022-06-23 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. The pound-dollar pair is declining amid the release of data on inflation growth in the UK. The inflation report itself turned out to be very contradictory, but the downward momentum of GBP/USD is due to the general strengthening of the US currency. Demand for the dollar is growing ahead of the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in the US Congress. Powell will announce the semi-annual report and answer questions from congressmen. This is an important event that, as a rule, has a significant impact on the mood of the market. Moreover, at the moment there is a certain intrigue regarding Powell's rhetoric. According to some experts, he will admit the probability of a 75-point rate hike not only at the July meeting, but will not rule out such a scenario in the context of the September meeting.     But back to British inflation. Today's release really turned out to be controversial—the published figures can be interpreted both in favor of the pound and against it. On the one hand, the overall consumer price index rose again year-on-year, this time to 9.1%. The indicator has been showing consistent growth over the past 8 months. A similar dynamic was demonstrated by another indicator—the producer price index, which growth may be an early indication of increased inflationary pressure. Growth of up to 2.1% (in monthly terms) was recorded, with a growth forecast of up to 1.9%. In annual terms, the indicator also came out in the "green zone," rising to 22.1%. The producer price index added to the positive picture, also being above the forecast values. On the other hand, core inflation disappointed. And this factor, by and large, leveled the achievements of the other components of the release. The core consumer price index has shown positive dynamics over the past 7 months, but in May it still slowed down its growth, contrary to the opposite forecasts of most analysts. The indicator came out at around 5.9% with a forecast of growth to 6.0%. In the previous month, the indicator peaked at 6.2%. After the publication of the inflation report, the market was again cautiously talking about the fact that the Bank of England might revise its policy regarding the pace of interest rate hikes. To be more precise, the regulator can maintain the pace that was indicated at the end of the June meeting. Note that significant disagreements arose at the June meeting of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee. Three members of the BoE—Michael Saunders, Catherine Mann, and Jonathan Haskel - voted to raise the rate by 50 basis points. But they remained in the minority, as the other six of their Committee colleagues insisted on a 25-point increase. If the pace of core inflation slows further, the 50-point boosters will remain in the minority (if not reconsidered at all).         This factor did not allow GBP/USD buyers to develop corrective growth: the mark of 1.2300 (Kijun-sen line on the daily chart) remained unconquered. Traders have been trying to overcome this target for the past two days, but in vain. Moreover, today the bears of the pair once again seized the initiative and tested the area of the 21st figure. In general, if we disregard intraday price fluctuations, we can conclude that the GBP/USD pair is stuck in flat ahead of Powell's speech in Congress. Last week, the pound fell to 1.1933, after which GBP/USD sellers took profits and provoked an upward pullback. The upward corrective trend also quickly choked—as mentioned above, buyers were unable to conquer the area of the 23rd figure. As a result, the price got stuck in the range of 1.2160–1.2290, waiting for the next information impulse. It is obvious that Powell will set the tone for trading today. It is likely that he will voice a hawkish position, declaring the need to tighten monetary policy at an aggressive pace. Yesterday, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin made it clear that many members of the Fed support the idea of a 75-point rate hike following the results of the July meeting. Note that earlier Powell announced that in July the Fed would increase the rate by either 50 or 75 basis points. It is likely that today the head of the Fed will make it clear to congressmen that the regulator is ready to raise the rate by 75-point steps, not only in July but also in September. Such a message will significantly strengthen the position of the US currency, including in pair with the pound. Thus, in my opinion, before Powell's speech, the GBP/USD pair will be trading in the range of 1.2160–1.2290. Further prospects will depend on the rhetoric of the head of the Fed: if he supports the greenback, the pair may go to the base of the 21st figure. Otherwise, buyers will overcome the resistance level of 1.2300 (Kijun-sen line on D1) and try to approach the next price barrier 1.2380 (middle Bollinger Bands line on the same timeframe).   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/314199
Investors' Concerns About The Coming Recession In The UK, Will GBP/USD Pair Reach Its Lowest Level In History?

1 GBP To USD Indicator analysis: Daily review of GBP/USD on June 27, 2022

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.06.2022 10:58
Relevance up to 09:00 2022-06-28 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Trend analysis (Fig. 1). The pound-dollar pair may move upward from 1.2269 (close of Friday's daily candle) to the target of 1.2385, the 61.8% retracement level (red dotted line). Upon reaching this level, the price may continue to move upward to the upper fractal 1.2404 (yellow dotted line). From this level, a downward pullback is possible.     Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – up; Fibonacci levels – up; Volumes – up; Candlestick analysis – up; Trend analysis – up; Bollinger bands – up; Weekly chart – up. General conclusion: Today the price may move upward from 1.2269 (close of Friday's daily candle) to the target of 1.2385, the 61.8% retracement level (red dotted line). Upon reaching this level, the price may continue to move upward to the upper fractal 1.2404 (yellow dotted line). From this level, a downward pullback is possible. Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.2269 (close of Friday's daily candle), the price may start moving down with the target of 1.2213, the historical support level (blue dotted line). Upon reaching this level, an upward movement is possible with the target of 1.2299, the 50.0% retracement level (red dotted line).   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/314567
Rates Spark: Following the US data cues

FX: GBP/USD: plan for the US session on June 27 (analysis of morning deals). The sellers of the pound are back in business.

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.06.2022 13:20
Relevance up to 12:00 2022-06-28 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the 1.2317 level and recommended making decisions from it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened there. Growth and another unsuccessful attempt to get above 1.2317 by analogy with Friday's attempt to break out of the side channel – all this led to a sell signal for the pound. At the time of writing, the pair has gone down more than 40 points and the pressure on the trading instrument remains. From a technical point of view, nothing has changed, nor has the strategy itself changed. And what were the entry points for the euro?     To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need: The lack of statistics on the pound allowed buyers to make another attempt to break 1.2317, but it was not possible to gain a foothold above this level. During the American session, data on the volume of sales of long-term goods were released today, which may increase pressure on the pound - if the indicators turn out to be much better than economists' forecasts. If the reports coincide with the forecasts, most likely the pair will continue trading in the side channel with the prospect of re-updating the resistance at 1.2317. In case of a return of pressure on the pound after the data, the bulls will try to protect 1.2241. Only the formation of a false breakdown there will give a signal to open new long positions in the expectation of growth to the nearest level of 1.2317. In the morning forecast, I said that this level is critically important for bulls since by returning it under control, it will be possible to count on the resumption of the bull market formed on June 14. A breakout and a top-down test of 1.2317 will give a buy signal based on the 1.2400 update. A similar breakthrough at this level will lead to another entry point into long positions with the prospect of reaching 1.2452, where I recommend fixing the profits. A more distant target will be the 1.2484 area. If GBP/USD falls and there are no buyers at 1.2241 in the afternoon, the pressure on the pair will increase. In this scenario, I advise you to open new long positions only on a false breakout from the lower border of the side channel 1.2171. You can buy GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from 1.2102, or even lower – around 1.2030 with the aim of correction of 30-35 points within a day. To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need: The bears did everything possible to return to the market and defended 1.2317. Most likely, the emphasis will now be placed on 1.2241 and on fixing below this range. In the case of weak data on the index of pending sales in the real estate market and the volume of orders for durable goods in the United States, it will be possible to observe another upward jerk of the pound. Therefore, only the formation of a false breakdown at 1.2317 will lead to the formation of another sell signal with the prospect of a return to 1.2241. Its breakthrough will lead to a sell-off and a return of GBP/USD to the area of the lower border of the side channel. However, only a consolidation below 1.2241 and a reverse test from the bottom up will give an entry point into short positions. A more distant target will be the 1.2102 area, the test of which will testify to the defeat of buyers. With the option of GBP/USD growth and the absence of bears at 1.2317, we will only have to count on the nearest resistance of 1.2400. A false breakout at this level will give a good entry point into short positions in the expectation of at least some downward correction. If there is no activity at 1.2400, another upward jerk may occur against the background of the demolition of stop orders of speculative sellers. In this case, I advise you to postpone short positions to 1.2452. But even there, I advise selling the pound only in case of a false breakdown, since going beyond this range will increase demand for GBP/USD. Short positions can be viewed immediately for a rebound from 1.2484, or even higher – from 1.2516, counting on the pair's rebound down by 30-35 points inside the day.     The COT report (Commitment of Traders) for June 14 recorded a reduction in both long and short positions, which led to a slight decrease in the negative delta. After the meeting of the Bank of England, at which it was announced that it would adhere to the previous plan to raise interest rates and combat high inflation, the pound strengthened its position, which will affect future COT reports. For sure, the big players are taking advantage of the moment and buying back the much cheaper pound, despite all the negative that is happening with the UK economy now. However, one should not rely too much on the pair's recovery in the near future, since the policy of the Federal Reserve System will seriously help the US dollar in the fight against risky assets. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions decreased by 5,275 to the level of 29,343, while short non-commercial positions decreased by 10,489 to the level of 94,939. This led to a decrease in the negative value of the non-commercial net position from the level of -70,810 to the level of -65,596. The weekly closing price decreased to 1.1991 against 1.2587.     Signals of indicators: Moving averages Trading is conducted around 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates market uncertainty. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1. Bollinger Bands In the case of growth, the average border of the indicator around 1.2310 will act as resistance. In the case of a decline, the lower limit of the indicator in the 1.2240 area will act as support. Description of indicators Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow. Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green. MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence/divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9 Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20 Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions use the futures market for speculative purposes and to meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/314610
How Much Could UK Data Assist GBP Battling With USD And Euro? Were Stocks Supported?

How Much Could UK Data Assist GBP Battling With USD And Euro? Were Stocks Supported?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 13.07.2022 10:43
A new package of UK macro statistics showed some recovery and exceeded expectations, supporting pound buying, although it did not help the stock market. The monthly economic growth is estimated at 0.5% in May after a decline of 0.2% in April and +0.1% in March. And this is significantly better than the 0.1% expected. Manufacturing showed an impressive jump, adding 1.4% for May - the best growth in 14 months.The service sector grew by 0.4% m/m, contrary to expectations of a 0.1% increase. Equally surprising was the construction sector, where workloads grew by 1.5% mom and 4.8% YoY, coming out of the lockdown pit, renewed historical highs. The foreign trade deficit of 21.4B was higher than the expected 19.8B, but this widening came at the expense of faster growth in imports, although exports also added impressively. The UK’s trade deficit was 24% of trade turnover. These are historically high figures but a marked improvement on the record 30% in January. Much of the credit for the recovery can be attributed to a weaker pound, which has boosted export competitiveness and increased construction activity. The latter can be attributed to the tailwinds from historically low-interest rates, while there are questions about whether the housing boom will continue. A positive batch of data will likely provide the pound only a temporary respite in its decline against the dollar and spur gains against the euro. The EURGBP pair seems to have completed its corrective rebound after a long decline between September 2020 and March 2022. By the end of the year, the pair may fall to the last six years area near 0.8250. In the event of further problems in the Eurozone, the EURGBP could lose support and move towards 0.75, which has not been since the Brexit referendum
Investors' Concerns About The Coming Recession In The UK, Will GBP/USD Pair Reach Its Lowest Level In History?

FX: GBP/USD (British Pound To US Dollar) - Possible Scenarios

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 14.07.2022 10:57
Relevance up to 07:00 2022-07-15 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Trend analysis (Fig. 1). The price may move downward from the level of 1.1885 (close of yesterday's daily candle) to the target of 1.1806, the lower fractal (red dotted line). When testing this level, the price may continue to move downward with the target at 1.1778, the support level of the downward channel (bold red line). Upon reaching this level, the price may move up.     Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – down; Fibonacci levels – down; Volumes – down; Candlestick analysis – down; Trend analysis – down; Bollinger bands – down; Weekly chart – down. General conclusion: Today the price may move downward from the level of 1.1885 (close of yesterday's daily candle) to the target of 1.1806, the lower fractal (red dotted line). When testing this level, the price may continue to move downward with the target at 1.1778, the support level of the downward channel (bold red line). Upon reaching this level, the price may move up. Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.1885 (close of yesterday's daily candle), the price may move down with the target of 1.1806, the lower fractal (red dotted line). When testing this level, an upward pullback is possible with the target of 1.18820, the 14.6% retracement level (red dotted line). Upon reaching this level, the price may move up.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/316135
The GBP/JPY Pair Is In Downward Trend, The Bank Of Japan Lags Behind Other Major Central Banks

What Helps GBP (British Pound)? Canadian Dollar (CAD) Influenced By Interest Rate Hike | Orbex

Jing Ren Jing Ren 14.07.2022 11:06
GBPUSD sees limited bounce The pound finds support from better-than-expected GDP growth in May. The pair is having a hard time holding onto its rally attempts. Bearish sentiment means that rebounds have rather been opportunities for trend followers to sell into strength. The RSI’s double bottom in the oversold area caught some buyers’ attention. But strong selling could be expected between the psychological level of 1.2000 and 1.2050. 1.1810 is a fresh support and its breach could trigger a new round of liquidation towards 1.1600. USDCAD hits resistance The Canadian dollar soared after the Bank of Canada surprised the market with a 1% hike. The greenback consolidated its gains after it broke above June’s peak at 1.3070. 1.2940 at the base of a previous bullish breakout has offered some support, though its retest is a sign of hesitation. 1.3050 is the last hurdle ahead and a bullish breakout may attract momentum buyers and resume the uptrend. On the downside, a fall below 1.2940 may cast doubt on the bulls’ commitment and deepen the correction to 1.2840. XAUUSD attempts to rebound Gold recouped some losses after the US dollar bulls took profit following inflation data in June. The price action has struggled to stay above September 2021’s lows at 1723. A bullish RSI divergence showed a slowdown in the sell-off. A rally above 1750 would act as confirmation and prompt sellers to cover their bets, paving the way for an extended recovery. Then 1805 along the 30-day moving average could be within reach. A drop below 1710 may attract more bears and send the metal to August 2021’s lows near 1682.
British Pound: Oanda Expects That If Liz Truss Doesn't Change The Plan, The UK Inflation May Go Up!

FX: Can We Expect A Decrease Of GBP/USD? What Are The Tips For British Pound To US Dollar?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 14.07.2022 12:53
Relevance up to 09:00 2022-07-15 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair GBP/USD tested 1.1891 on Wednesday. At that time, the MACD line was just starting to move below zero, so selling was quite appropriate. However, the decrease was limited because after moving down by just 10 pips, the pair reversed and went to 1.1940. Sometime later, the pair tested 1.1891, also at a time when the MACD had just started to move below zero. This signal was more successful as it led to more than 50 pips price decrease.     UK's data on industrial production, GDP and trade balance helped pound rise yesterday morning, albeit not as much as some would like. Then, in the afternoon, it fell because traders focused more on the June CPI data in the US, which jumped to 9.1%, raising demand for the dollar ahead of further policy decisions by the Fed. There are no reports that could support pound today, so expect GBP/USD to decline even more. In the afternoon, the US will release a report on producer prices, which is expected to show a slight slowdown amid declining energy costs. Following that are weekly jobless claims data, as well as a speech from Fed member Christopher Waller. For long positions: Buy pound when the quote reaches 1.1875 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1950 (thicker green line on the chart). Although there is little chance for a rally today, traders can still take long positions when the MACD line is above zero or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.1842, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1875 and 1.1950. For short positions: Sell pound when the quote reaches 1.1824 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1774. Pressure will return if latest data indicate growing inflationary pressure in the US. However, when selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero or is starting to move down from it. Pound can also be sold at 1.1875, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1824 and 1.1774.     What's on the chart: The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the GBP/USD pair. The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level. The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the GBP/USD pair. The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level. MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones. Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/316157
Bank Of England Is Expected To Choose Between 50 and 75bp, Ethereum Arouses More And More Discussions As Merge Is Around The Bend

Is FX Market Turbulent!? Let's Look At Headline-Topping EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY And Other Pairs

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 14.07.2022 13:35
US dollar in choppy waters Currency markets had another choppy overnight session, which ultimately ended up sideways again, despite US inflation unexpectedly rising. EUR/USD traded to parity but managed to finish higher at 1.0040, a pattern repeated across most major currencies. With the US dollar looking overbought on short-term indicators as well, I suspect that the odds of a US dollar correction lower have risen sharply, especially as Asian central banks and others have rushed to tighten monetary policy this week. I could see the correction persisting in some shape or form until the FOMC meeting later this month. The dollar index traded in a 100-point 107.50 to 108.50 range overnight but ultimately finished just 0.13% lower at 108.02. It has risen by 0.23% to 108.27 in Asia, led by a much weaker Japanese yen. Resistance is at 108.50 and 110.00. Support is at 107.50 and then the 1.0585 breakout point, followed by 1.0500. ​ The relative strength index indicator (RSI) is overbought, signalling a potential correction lower by the US dollar. EUR/USD traded through 1.0000 to 0.9998 overnight, but held this level once again, and rose back to finish the day 0.21% higher at 1.0058. In Asia, it has eased to 1.0035. A clean break of 1.0000 is likely to trigger a sharp move lower as stop-losses and algos kick in, but it is significant that it has held this level for two days in a row, although its rallies have been limited. ​ The oversold RSI and underwhelming post-inflation performance by the US dollar suggests the euro could be tracing out a low for now and a correction back towards 1.0200 is possible. EUR/USD has support at 1.0000 and then 9900/25. It has resistance at 1.1020, the overnight high, and then 1.0200. GBP/USD traded as high as 1.1965 overnight before closing unchanged at 1.1890. It has fallen to 1.1870 in Asia but looks to be trying to trace out a temporary low at 1.1800, which is initial support. Resistance is at 1.1965 and then 1.2060 and 1.2200. USD/JPY continued rallying overnight as US short-dated yields rose, finishing 0.41% higher at 137.45. In Asia, USD/JPY has continued rallying quite aggressively, rising 0.44% to 138.05. With a procession of central banks capitulating and hiking rates aggressively in the past 24 hours, Japan’s super-easy policy leaves it an outlier and that seems to be weighing on the yen. ​ USD/JPY’s next resistance is at 140.00, with support at 136.00, 134.25 and 132.00. I expect the “watching markets closely” noise to increase from Tokyo today and being long above 138.00 could be a dangerous trade in the shorter term. AUD/USD was unchanged at 0.6755 overnight, quite the surprise, given the US inflation data and another reason to think a greenback correction lower is imminent. ​ In Asia, super-strong employment data had lifted rate hike expectations and pushed AUD/USD 0.30% higher to 0.6775. It also looks like some decent AUD/JPY buying is going through. It has resistance at 0.6800 and 0.6850, with support between 0.6700 and 0.6730. NZD/USD is unchanged at 0.6130 again today, suggesting increased downside risks post the RBNZ yesterday. AUD/NZD buying post the Australian data is also capping NZD/USD gains. Asian currencies ranged overnight once again and have edged lower in Asia as some US dollar strength had returned. Overall, though, the response by Asian FX has been relatively muted post the US data and the moves seen by the MAS and BSP this morning. That said, USD/MYR continues to creep closer to 4.4500, USD/IDR to 15,000.00 and USD/INR and USD/KRW remain close to recent highs. The SGD and PHP have outperformed today as both central banks sprung unscheduled monetary tightening on markets. With South Korea, Singapore and the Philippines tightening this week, the pressure will be increasing on other regional currencies to follow suit as Asian central banks break ranks on inflation. Most notably, the INR, IDR and MYR look the most vulnerable and the recent slump in commodity prices will be another headwind for Indonesia and Malaysia. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. US dollar consolidates - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Investors' Concerns About The Coming Recession In The UK, Will GBP/USD Pair Reach Its Lowest Level In History?

Technical Analysis - Forex: GBP To USD - 25/07-30/07

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 25.07.2022 12:05
Relevance up to 09:00 2022-07-30 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Trend analysis GBP/USD will continue rising this week, starting from 1.2003 (the closing of the last weekly candle) to the resistance line at 1.2105 (white thick line). After that it will move to the 23.6% retracement level at 1.2226 (red dotted line), then go to the 38.2% retracement level at 1.2517 (red dotted line). Price is likely to decrease after these movements.     Fig. 1 (weekly chart) Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis - uptrend Fibonacci levels - uptrend Volumes - uptrend Candlestick analysis - uptrend Trend analysis - uptrend Bollinger bands - uptrend Monthly chart - uptrend All this points to an upward movement in GBP/USD. Conclusion: The pair will have an upward trend, with no first lower shadow on the weekly white candle (Monday - up) and no second upper shadow (Friday - up). During the week, pound will increase from 1.2003 (the closing of the last weekly candle) to the resistance line at 1.2105 (white thick line), move to the 23.6% retracement level at 1.2226 (red dotted line), then go to the 38.2% retracement level at 1.2517 (red dotted line). Price is likely to decrease after these movements. Alternatively, the quote could climb from 1.1863 (closing of the last weekly candle) to the resistance line at 1.2105 (white thick line), then move down to the 161.8% retracement level at 1.1837 (dashed blue line). Upon reaching it, pound will go up to the 14.6% retracement level at 1.2049 (red dotted line).   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/317042
Markets Are Digesting Hawkish Signal Which Is Able To Boost US Dollar (USD)

Forex Market Means Volatility! British Pound To US Dollar - Possible Scenarios For EUR/USD - 05/08/22

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 05.08.2022 12:07
Relevance up to 03:00 2022-08-06 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Trend analysis (Fig. 1). The pound-dollar pair may move downward from the level of 1.2156 (close of yesterday's daily candle) to the target of 1.2088, the 38.2% retracement level (blue dotted line). After testing this level, the price may move upward with the target of 1.2196, the 76.4% retracement level (red dotted line). Upon reaching this level, continued upward movement is possible.     Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – down; Fibonacci levels – down; Volumes – down; Candlestick analysis – down; Trend analysis – up; Bollinger bands – up; Weekly chart – up. General conclusion: Today, the price may move downward from the level of 1.2156 (close of yesterday's daily candle) to the target of 1.2088, the 38.2% retracement level (blue dotted line). After testing this level, the price may move upward with the target of 1.2196, the 76.4% retracement level (red dotted line). Upon reaching this level, continued upward movement is possible. Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.2156 (close of yesterday's daily candle), the price may move down with the target of 1.2027, the 50% retracement level (blue dotted line), then an upward movement is possible to 1.2196, the 76.4% retracement level (red dotted line). After testing this level, the price may continue to move up.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/318127
Forex: So Could US Dollar (USD) And EUR/USD Become More Resistant To Data?

Forex Pairs: EUR/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/USD And Asian Currencies Commented By Jeffrey Halley (Oanda)

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 05.08.2022 13:44
US dollar has had an uneven sell-off overnight The US dollar fell overnight, led by losses against the euro for unknown reasons, with the Japanese yen also gaining as US yields slid slightly. Sterling and the Australasians hardly moved, while Asian currencies remain stubbornly anchored near to recent lows.   The dollar index fell 0.59% lower at 105.75 overnight, retracing slightly higher by 0.11% to 105.87 in Asia. The dollar index breakout lower at 106.45 has continued to cap rallies this week on a closing basis, suggesting downside risks are still the path of least resistance. Beyond that, 106.75 is the next resistance. Support is at 105.65, and then the more important 1.0500 level. Failure signals a deeper move lower to 1.0350 and, potentially, the 102.50 longer-term breakout.   EUR/USD rallied by 0.76% overnight to 1.0245, easing slightly to 1.0235 in Asian trading. Given stubbornly high European gas prices and the recessionary risks from its Eastern border, the single currencies environment remains challenging, even if 0.9950 is now looking like a medium-term low. EUR/USD had solid resistance nearby at 1.0250 and then 1.0300. A close above 1.0300 this even would signal further gains to 1.0500, however. Meanwhile, EUR/USD has support at 1.0150 and then a series of daily lows between 1.0100 and 1.0125.   GBP/USD traded in a choppy 150+ point Bank of England range overnight but ultimately finished nearly unchanged at 1.2160. In Asia, it has edged lower to 1.2145. When your central bank has forecast a recession and inflation rising to 13.0% but has only hiked rates to 1.75%, it is reasonable to assume they are behind the curve. That stagflationary reality could be limiting sterling’s gains. Support is at 1.2065, the overnight low, with resistance at 1.2215, the overnight high, followed by 1.2300.   Four days in Bali saw me miss the long-awaited capitulation sell-off by USD/JPY as the US/Japan rate differential narrowed. Much will depend on the US Non-Farm Payroll data this evening and the reaction by US bonds. The sell-off this week went further than I expected but held the 100-day moving average (DMA), which today is at 130.70. Resistance is clearly denoted at 134.65 now. Expect plenty of noise in between.   AUD/USD rose 0.25% to 0.6965 overnight, and NZD/USD rose by 0.40% to 0.6295. Both are almost unchanged in Asia as risk sentiment holds up into the Asian session. The technical picture for both remains constructive as both currencies staged upside breakouts higher a fortnight ago. They remain well above their breakout lines at 0.6790 and 0.6145, and a daily close above either 0.7050 or 0.6350 signals the next stage of the recovery rally.   Asian currencies were steady overnight, booking an uneven session of mixed gains against the greenback. In Asia, surging inflation numbers from the Philippines and Thailand have sparked 0.75% rallies by THB and PHP to 35.620 and 55.17 as markets price in faster monetary tightening. That has had a knock-on impact across the Asian FX space, with the Korean won gaining 0.40% to 1297.20. The Indonesian rupiah and Malaysian ringgit remain near recent lows, however, as both central banks remain very reluctant rate hikers. With inflation rising in Asia, lifting rate hike expectations, Asian currencies could finally be starting also to gain some benefits from recent US dollar strength elsewhere. USD/INR has eased to 89.976 today. With the RBI rate decision this afternoon, I expect volatility ahead. Further INR strength from here probably relies on the RBI statement being hawkish; otherwise, I suspect INR weakness will resume. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. US dollar retreat continues - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Waiting game ahead of Jackson Hole, King Dollar, bitcoin edges higher

Forex: How Did US Dollar Reacted To NFP? | GBP/USD Chart

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 05.08.2022 22:11
The British pound is falling sharply in the North American session, after a massively strong US nonfarm payment release. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2040, down 0.98% on the day. US Nonfarm Payrolls smashes higher It wasn’t so long ago that US nonfarm payrolls was one of the most anticipated events on the economic calendar and often had a significant impact on the movement of the US dollar. That has changed in the new economic landscape of red-hot inflation and central banks raising interest rates practically every month. The markets seem more absorbed with new inflation records and the threat of recession, which may make for more catchy headlines than labor market statistics. Today, however, NFP demonstrated its ability to be a market-mover. The July gain of 528 thousand crushed the estimate of 250 thousand and follows the June release of 372 thousand. The US dollar has responded with strong gains against the majors, as a strong labour market will enable the Fed to remain hawkish with its rate moves. BoE delivers with a 50bp hike The BoE was widely expected to raise rates by 50bp, and the central bank did exactly that. The MPC vote was 8-1 in favour, with one member voting for a 25bp hike. This split shows that Governor Bailey appears to have the MPC members in line, which should bolster Governor Bailey’s credibility. With inflation hitting 9.4% in June and no sign of a peak, the BoE has been accused of raising a white flag with regard to inflation. The 50bp increase, the biggest in 30 years, is an important step in fighting inflation, which has hit 9.4% and shows no signs of peaking. Even with this hike, the Bank Rate is at 1.75%, well behind the Federal Reserve, the central banks of Canada and New Zealand and others. The BoE’s rate increase was accompanied by a stark warning of a prolonged recession, and the pound responded with losses. The pound managed to recover these losses but it is clear that the currency isn’t getting any support from the BoE’s rate moves, with such a huge gap between inflation levels and current rates. Investors were also less than impressed as the BoE said that it might ease up on raising rates in the coming months. Governor Bailey has said he would be forceful in combating inflation, but the message that the central bank doesn’t plan to be forceful with its forward guidance is weighing on the pound. . GBP/USD Technical GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2128. Next, there is resistance at 1.2295  There is support at 1.2010 and 1.1876 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. GBP/USD slides as Nonfarm Payrolls surges - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Bitcoin: Tuesday Has Seemed To Look Quite Promising For BTC/USD, But...

Turbulent Time For GBP (British Pound)! What's Possibly Ahead Of US Dollar (USD)?

ING Economics ING Economics 08.08.2022 10:19
The dollar starts the new week on the firm side after some impressive US July jobs figures on Friday. US money markets now price around 125bp of further Fed tightening and then a softer Fed profile from next summer onwards - pretty much now in line with our house view. Firm US July CPI data this week can see the dollar continue to trade near its highs Source: Shutterstock USD: Dollar to hold near highs, but interest in carry could emerge An unequivocally strong US July jobs report released on Friday has gone a little way to assuaging recession fears and given credence to last week's pushback from the Fed that it was nowhere near done in terms of tightening. Pricing in the US money markets now sees a further 125bp of Fed hikes this year (we see hikes of 50bp, 50bp, and 25bp in September, November and December). And those money markets price in around 50bp of cuts from summer '23 onwards. Current pricing is consistent with our house view and perhaps could usher in a period of calm for Fed pricing and the dollar. That pricing looks unlikely to be altered much this week with a strong US July CPI, where the core rate should stay near 6% year-on-year and keep the Fed concerned. There should also be focus this week on the Senate's approval of what is now called the Inflation Reduction Act - legislation focused on bringing down prescription drug prices and targeting spending on the climate emergency. At $437bn it is a far cry from the $1-1.5trn initial plans for the Build Back Better legislation and thus seems unlikely to be read as any kind of major fiscal stimulus. It will be interesting to see, however, whether new taxation on stock buybacks next year triggers a rush of stock buybacks this year - potentially supporting US equities (and probably the dollar) into year-end. Expect DXY to hold near its recent highs of 107. But if the dollar is not going anywhere in a hurry, there could be renewed interest in the carry trade. Of the available carry, we think the near 10% levels offered through the 3-month Mexican peso implied yields look attractive. Here Banxico does a good job of keeping USD/MXN stable and is expected to hike rates 75bp to 8.50% this Thursday. Chris Turner We see the dollar holding near its highs after Friday's strong jobs reporthttps://t.co/WwxUhzptEZ — ING Economics (@ING_Economics) August 8, 2022   EUR: Italy's ratings outlook change won't help the euro On Friday evening, the ratings agency Moodys shifted its rating outlook on Italy's sovereign debt from stable to negative. Given that Moodys' Italian rating is just one notch above junk - that has raised some eyebrows and no doubt will call the European Central Bank into further supportive action, be it through the more aggressive re-investment of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme or potentially even using its new support instrument - the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI). None of this will help the beleaguered euro, where the ECB's trade-weighted measure remains glued to the lows of the year. Indeed, if quiet summer markets prompt renewed interest in the carry trade, the euro will probably be one of the preferred funding currencies.  EUR/USD was understandably hit by Friday's strong US jobs release data and looks like it can stay offered in a 1.0100-1.0300 trading range. Elsewhere, EUR/CHF will be monitoring the performance of Italian bonds today and can probably edge back towards the lower end of a 0.97-0.98 range - a move that will not be unwelcome to the newly hawkish Swiss National Bank. Chris Turner GBP: Week culminates in a 2Q GDP contraction Following last week's pretty bleak Bank of England meeting, the focus this week will be Friday's release of 2Q22 UK GDP data. The market is expecting a 0.2% quarter-on-quarter contraction, we are looking for -0.1% QoQ.  A contraction is widely priced because of the extra bank holiday in June, but weaker activity will highlight the BoE's call of the UK entering a recession in 4Q22 and contracting 2% over the five subsequent quarters. Sterling probably has not sold off more since investors do not quite know what to do with a reserve currency that will be backed by rates at 2.25% if we are correct with our BoE call for the September meeting. Given that the euro should remain soft, we are sticking with our original call from last Thursday that EUR/GBP may struggle to break above the 0.8450 area this week. Chris Turner CEE: Inflation strikes back, again A heavy calendar in the Central and Eastern Europe region is again led by inflation numbers. On Monday, we will see data from the labour market, foreign trade and industrial production in the Czech Republic. The monthly numbers show a slowdown in the economy, but we have also seen some positive surprises that reduce the risk of a technical recession in the second half of the year. Inflation in Hungary will be published on Tuesday. Peter Virovacz expects a further increase from 11.7% to 13.3% year-on-year, slightly above market expectations, also supported by tax changes. In the Czech Republic, inflation will be published on Wednesday. Again, we expect a new record at 18.5% YoY, well above market expectations, mainly due to the announced energy price hikes. On Thursday, we will see inflation in Romania. Valentin Tataru forecasts a drop in YoY terms from 15.1% to 14.6%, which would mark the first decline from the peak. On Friday, the current account in Poland and the Czech Republic will be published, we will see the final estimate of Polish inflation and the Czech National Bank will publish minutes. In the FX market, on the floating side of the CEE region, the Polish zloty and Hungarian forint have strengthened significantly in the past week and, as we mentioned on Wednesday, it is a bit too much for our liking. In both countries, market interest rate expectations have since fallen further, driving rate differentials to their lowest levels since mid-June in Hungary, and April in Poland. Moreover, Friday's US jobs report supported the dollar, which is also not playing into the region's hands. Thus, in our view, the only thing that saved the zloty and forint from losses at the end of last week was the positive market sentiment and risk-on mode. However, we expect both currencies to be weaker this week. We see the forint as more vulnerable, with our target at 399 EUR/HUF and the zloty at 4.75 EUR/PLN for the days ahead. The koruna is still liquidating short positions after Thursday's CNB meeting which made it clear that the end of FX intervention is not on the table. However, we expect the koruna to return to 24.60 EUR/CZK soon. The Romanian leu remained untouched after Friday's central bank meeting and is still enjoying its trip to stronger levels around 4.925 EUR/RON - a move that we think is temporary. Frantisek Taborsky Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Bitcoin: Tuesday Has Seemed To Look Quite Promising For BTC/USD, But...

Look At This! FX: British Pound (GBP): Analysis Of GBP/USD - 08/08/22

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 08.08.2022 15:07
Relevance up to 13:00 2022-08-09 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.   Good afternoon, dear traders! On the 1H chart, the GBP/USD pair declined to the 1.1933 level last Friday. A little later on Friday, the pair was trying to recover to the Fibonacci correction level of 523.6% - 1.2146. On Monday, the price lost steam. It is likely to resume a downward movement. I have determined a new downtrend corridor, which indicates the bearish sentiment. If the pair consolidates above it, it may rise to 1.2315. However, taking into account the economic reports of recent weeks, I believe that the bearish sentiment could persist for a long time. The fact is that traders have already priced in the sixth rate increase by the BoE. The pound sterling has been rapidly growing for several weeks. Many analysts attributed this rally to the upcoming rate hike by 0.50%. Follow us on Feedly However, the Fed also raised the benchmark rate by 0.75% a couple of weeks ago. Next month, it may hike it by 0.75% again for the third time in a row. Recently, some Fed officials have backed an increase in the key rate to 4% or even higher. Notably, at the beginning of the year, policymakers talked about the need to raise the interest rate to 3-3.25%. Thus, there could be more rate hikes in the near future. Inflation remains high despite aggressive tightening. The Fed has to wait until this indicator starts declining. Only after that, traders could expect rate cuts. As for now, the Fed is likely to maintain its hawkish stance. The US dollar has an excellent opportunity to advance versus the euro and the pound sterling. Last Friday, US economic reports turned out to be quite strong, which was bullish for the US dollar. Expectations of more rate hikes may also boost the greenback.     On the 4H chart, the pair performed a rebound from the Fibonacci correction level of 127.2% - 1.2250. It fell to 1.1980. If the price bounced off this level, it may grow to 1.2250. If it tumbles below 1.1980, it will open the way to the next Fibonacci level of 161.8% - 1.1709. There are no divergences in any indicators today. Commitments of Traders (COT):     The mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders over the past week has become a little more bearish. The number of Long contracts decreased by 5,301 and the number of Short contracts dropped by 2,882. Thus, the general mood of traders remained bearish. The number of Short contracts still exceeds the number of Long ones by several times. Large retail traders continue to sell the pound sterling and their sentiment has not changed lately. The pound sterling has been growing for several weeks. However, COT reports show that it may resume its decline. Besides, an increase in long positions is rather modest to count on an uptrend. Economic calendar for US and UK: On Monday, the economic calendar for the UK and the US do not contain market-driving events. Thus, fundamental factors will not affect market sentiment. Outlook for GBP/USD and trading recommendations: I recommended opening short if the price drops below the upward corridor on the 1H chart with the prospect of a drop to 1.1933. It was also possible to sell the pound sterling after a pullback from the 1.2250 level on the 4H chart. It is better to open long positions if the price consolidates above the upward corridor on the 1H with the target level of 1.2315.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/318334
GBP/USD Could Be Turned Upside Down Shortly As The Pair Is Ahead Of UK GDP Release

GBP/USD Could Be Turned Upside Down Shortly As The Pair Is Ahead Of UK GDP Release

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 09.08.2022 15:02
The British pound has posted slight gains today. GBP/USD is trading in the European session at 1.2106, up 0.21% on the day. The economic calendar has been light so far this week. On Capitol Hill, the Biden Administration racked up a badly-needed victory ahead of the mid-terms, passing a domestic spending bill which covers climate change, health costs, and corporate taxes. The bill has the interesting name of the Inflation Reduction Act. It would be great if that meant that US inflation, which hit 9.1% in June, must lower itself or else be in breach of the law, but I doubt that US lawmakers have such capabilities. We could see a reduction in inflation as soon as Wednesday, with the release of July’s inflation report. Headline CPI is expected to fall to 8.7%, down from 9.1%, while core CPI is forecast to rise to 6.1%, up from 5.9%. If the headline reading is higher than expected, it will put pressure on the Fed to raise rates by 0.75% in September and the dollar should respond with gains. Conversely, a soft reading from the headline or core releases would ease the pressure on the Fed and could send the dollar lower. BRC sends grim warning despite stronger retail sales In the UK, BRC Retail Sales rebounded with a gain of 1.6% YoY in July, after a 1.3% in June. The BRC noted that despite the positive release, retailers are struggling with falling sales volumes, as inflation has hit 9.1% and is expected to hit double-digits. The BRC added that consumer confidence remains weak and the rise in energy bills in October will worsen the cost of living crisis. The UK releases GDP for Q2 on Friday, and the markets are braced for a downturn. GDP is expected to slow to 2.8% YoY, down from 8.7% in Q1. On a quarterly basis, GDP is projected at -0.2%, following a 0.8% gain in Q1. If GDP is weaker than expected, a fall in the pound is a strong possibility. GBP/USD Technical GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2123. Next, there is resistance at 1.2241  There is support at 1.2061 and 1.1951 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Pound edges higher, markets eye US inflation - MarketPulseMarketPulse
British Pound: Oanda Expects That If Liz Truss Doesn't Change The Plan, The UK Inflation May Go Up!

GBP: Potential 2023 Rate Cut Affects British Pound, But Politics Is The Shaping Factors As Well

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 10.08.2022 13:09
Relevance up to 09:00 2022-08-12 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results.   The British currency remains relatively calm this week, expecting, along with the US, a report on the consumer price index in America. An additional factor of pressure for the pound was the thunderclouds on the political horizon of the UK, due to the election of the prime minister. Markets are focused on the election race in the UK, the favorite of which is Liz Truss, the foreign secretary. She claims the place of Boris Johnson, who was forced by the Conservative Party to resign as prime minister and its leader. The important points of the election program of Truss were the rejection of family benefits and tax cuts for citizens. In addition, the Minister of Foreign Affairs proposed to limit the influence of the Bank of England on the country's economy. Many analysts assess the current political situation in the UK as a crisis, which is exacerbated by economic turmoil. Recall that last week, the BoE raised interest rates by 50%, but this had little effect on inflation in the country. It should be noted that the central bank began the fight against inflation in December 2021 and since then has systematically raised rates at each of the subsequent six meetings. As a result, by the beginning of the summer, inflation in the UK amounted to 9.4%. According to the BoE's forecasts, it will peak in October, soaring to 13.3%. Against this background, by the end of 2022, the UK economy will enter a recession that will last five quarters. However, many experts disagree with this view. Currency strategists at Oxford Economics assess the risks of a recession as small, despite the current instability. According to economists, in 2023 the key rate cut by the BoE is more likely. At the same time, the central bank's actions aimed at reducing rates are slowing down economic activity in the UK. Against this backdrop, the GBP is under tremendous pressure, risking to collapse, currency strategists at Societe Generale believe. At the end of July, the British currency showed growth, waiting for the Federal Reserve to abandon the overly aggressive tightening of the monetary policy. However, this did not happen. On the contrary, the US central bank is quite resolute, and it is supported by the hawkish mood of US officials. Against this background, the pound's recovery was interrupted, releasing the latter into free swimming on the waves of the financial market. The pound has slipped 10% against the dollar since the beginning of this year, placing it in the top three worst currencies among the G-10. The reason is the low pace of rate hikes by the BoE compared to the Fed's anticipatory actions. According to analysts at Societe Generale, in the near future, the pound will fall to its lowest level since the collapse at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Additional pressure on the pound is created by the BoE's recent announcement about a possible recession and growing expectations of another rise in interest rates in the US (by 75 bps). In such a situation, the pound may sink to 1.2000 and below. If the bearish trend for the pound continues, the GBP/USD pair will fall to 1.1400-1.2000, according to Societe Generale. The pair was close to 1.2100 on Tuesday, August 9 and even peaked at 1.2130, but failed to consolidate on these positions. The GBP/USD pair was trading in the range of 1.2069-1.2070 on Wednesday morning, August 10. At the same time, the greenback showed mixed dynamics, as market participants expect July reports on the US consumer price index.     According to updated forecasts for the British currency, in the short term it will maintain support against the US. However, the high likelihood of interest rate cuts by the BoE in 2023 is putting downward pressure on the pound. At the same time, according to analysts at Oxford Economics, in the near future the central bank will raise interest rates amid galloping inflation, thereby contributing to the pound's growth. However, in the long term, the BoE may revise the current monetary strategy, according to Oxford Economics. UK GDP data for the second quarter of 2022 will be released this Friday, August 12. According to preliminary estimates, this indicator is expected to slow down to 2.8% in annual terms. Against this background, pessimism dominates the markets. In addition, on a quarterly basis, GDP is projected at -0.2%. Earlier, an increase of 0.8% was recorded in the first quarter of 2022. If the current GDP turns out to be weaker than expected, then the pound's decline is inevitable. The pound may be supported by the dollar's retreat across the entire spectrum of the market. In such a situation, the pound is able to stay afloat. According to preliminary forecasts, in the third quarter of 2022, the GBP/USD pair will remain close to 1.2000 and may reach 1.2200, and by the first quarter of 2023 it will rise to 1.2300.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/318536
Podcast: The Weak Equity Market, Focus On Copper, The Euro Situation

What Can We Expect From GBP/USD? | The US Inflation Print Surprised, Could Fed Slowdown?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 11.08.2022 09:27
Relevance up to 19:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. According to the most optimistic forecasts, inflation in the United States should have decreased from 9.1% to 8.7%. Whereas the main forecast was based on its stability. But in fact, everything turned out to be completely different, as inflation slowed to 8.5%, which was a complete surprise, which eventually led to a sharp weakening of the dollar. And the reason is incredibly simple - since inflation is slowing down much faster than expected, the Federal Reserve may well reduce the pace of interest rate hikes. The main idea now is that in September the refinancing rate will be increased by only 50 basis points, and not 75 as previously expected. Inflation (United States):     The producer price index will be published today in the United States, which should not only confirm yesterday's inflation data, but also point to its further decline. The index may drop from 11.3% to 10.9%. Given that we are talking about a leading indicator for inflation, this will further convince the market that the US central bank will not raise interest rates so actively. Producer Price Index (United States):     However, everything related to interest rates is nothing but speculation and assumptions. And it is far from a fact that the latest inflation data will seriously affect something. Almost immediately after the publication of inflation data, Neil Kashkari, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, commented on this issue. And according to him, the slowdown in inflation does not change anything. And as soon as the market comprehends his words, the dollar will begin to strengthen again. The British currency jumped in value by about 180 points against the US dollar in a speculative rally. As a result, the quote returned to the region of the local high of the current corrective move. The technical instrument RSI H1 and H4, due to a speculative jump, turned out to be within the overbought zone, which indicated an overheating of long positions. At this time, the RSI D1 indicator crossed the middle line 50 from the bottom up, which again indicated a signal about a change in trading interests. The MA moving lines on the Alligator H4 indicator have changed direction from the bottom up, which is in line with the recent price momentum. Alligator D1 has intersections between the MA lines, this signal indicates a slowdown in the downtrend. On the trading chart of the daily period, there is a corrective move in the structure of the downward trend. There is no signal of a change in the medium-term trend.     Expectations and prospects The price area 1.2250/1.2300 became resistance on the way of speculators, where there was a reduction in the volume of long positions. Due to the local overbought of the pound sterling in the short term, a rollback occurred on the market. In this situation, the level of 1.2155 can serve as a variable support, where the quote may come during a rollback. The upward scenario will be considered by traders after the regrouping of trading forces, in the form of a rollback. The primary signal to buy the pound may occur if the price returns above 1.2250. Complex indicator analysis in the short-term and intraday periods has a sell signal due to the rollback stage. Indicators in the medium term have a variable signal, due to a slowdown in the downtrend.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/318647
US Dollar (USD) Decreased After Core Inflation Release

US Dollar (USD) Decreased After Core Inflation Release

Jing Ren Jing Ren 11.08.2022 08:25
GBPUSD tests resistance The US dollar tumbled after a slowdown in core inflation in July. A bullish MA cross on the daily chart suggests an improvement in sentiment but the pound needs to consolidate its gains so a rebound could have solid foundations. The pair previously met stiff selling pressure at the daily resistance 1.2300. A bullish breakout would be a decisive moment as it would trigger a runaway rally to May’s high at 1.2660. 1.2130 at the base of the breakout is a key support and the psychological level of 1.2000 a critical floor. AUDUSD breaks higher The Australian dollar surged as the US counterpart’s weakness drove traders into riskier assets. After a brief pullback the pair bounced off the demand zone around 0.6870 right over the bullish MA cross on the daily chart. A break above the daily resistance at 0.7050 indicates the bulls’ willingness in pushing higher. 0.7130 is the next hurdle as the RSI went overbought. Its breach could pave the way for a rally to June’s high at 0.7270. The psychological level of 0.7000 is the first support and 0.6870 critical to keep the recovery intact. USOIL still under pressure WTI crude struggles as US output hits its highest level since April 2020. The price has been falling along the 20-day moving average, putting it at the risk of a bearish reversal. Short-term price action found some relief at 87.50 but the bears could be waiting to sell into strength. 94.00 has turned into a resistance after it failed to stop the bleeding. Selling could be expected from those looking to join the downtrend. 82.00 would be the target in case of a bearish breakout. The bulls need to clear 98.20 before they could attract attention.
The GBP/JPY Pair Is In Downward Trend, The Bank Of Japan Lags Behind Other Major Central Banks

British Pound Was Supported By The US CPI, If GDP Disappoints GBP May Lose

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 11.08.2022 22:15
The British pound is trading quietly today, after posting sharp gains on Wednesday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2220, up 0.02% on the day. US inflation falls, dollar takes a tumble US inflation surprised on Wednesday, as both the CPI and the core CPI readings were lower than expected. Headline CPI dropped sharply to 8.5%, down from 9.1% in June and below the estimate of 8.7%. Core CPI remained steady at 5.9%, below the forecast of 6.1%. After months of inflation climbing higher, there was palpable relief in the markets as the headline reading finally broke the upward trend. The US dollar was roughed up, dropping sharply against the major currencies. GBP/USD rose an impressive 1.19% yesterday. The Federal Reserve is breathing easier as inflation has finally slowed, and it is more likely now than 24 hours ago that the Fed will ease up on rate hikes and deliver a 0.50% increase in September rather than a 0.75% hike. Nevertheless, it would be premature to declare that the inflation dragon has been slayed and the Fed will soon pivot with regard to rate policy. The inflation rate of 8.5%, although lower than last month, is still close to a four-decade high. Inflation fell chiefly due to a drop in gas prices, but with the volatility we are seeing in the oil markets, gasoline could quickly change directions. Perhaps most importantly, inflation remains broad-based; the core reading, which excludes food and energy costs, remained steady at 5.9%. Fed members left no doubt that despite the positive CPI report, more tightening was on the way. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said that the Fed was “far, far away from declaring victory” over inflation, and Chicago Fed President Evans said that inflation remained “unacceptably” high. With the Fed looking to increase the benchmark rate to 4% or higher by the end of 2023, there is plenty of shelf life remaining in the Fed’s rate-tightening cycle. In the UK, the week wraps up with Friday’s GDP report for Q2. The markets are bracing for a soft release – GDP is expected to slow to 2.8% YoY, down from 8.7% in Q1. On a quarterly basis, GDP is projected at -0.2%, following a 0.8% gain in Q1. The pound received a huge lift on Wednesday courtesy of US inflation. If GDP is weaker than expected, the pound will likely lose ground. GBP/USD Technical GBP/USD continues to test resistance at 1.2241. Next, there is resistance at 1.2361  There is support at 1.2123 and 1.2061 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Pound steady ahead of UK GDP - MarketPulseMarketPulse
The EUR/USD Pair Showed Local Speculative Interest In Short Positions Yesterday

Forex Market May Surprise Us Today! EUR/GBP May Rally, What GBP/USD Traders Have To Do To Make The Pair Increase?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 12.08.2022 12:17
Relevance up to 09:00 2022-08-13 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Although the US inflation data has been very encouraging lately, Fed officials said the central bank is unlikely to change its stance on interest rates this year and the next. Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari noted that the benchmark rate could reach 3.9% by the end of this year and rise to 4.4% by the end of 2023.   Chicago Fed President Charles Evans had the same view, mentioning that although inflation eased, it is still unacceptably high. He said they will ensure that inflation returns to 2%. At the moment, inflation has fallen below estimates, prompting investors to lower bets that the Fed will go for another three-quarters of a percentage point rate hike in September. But San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said in a recent speech that it is too early to declare victory in the central bank's fight against inflation, so it is likely that the Fed will still implement another 75 basis point hike in the next policy meeting.     In another note, the US released the latest data on jobless claims, which showed an increase for the second week in a row. It remained at the highest level since November, indicating continued moderation in the labor market, which is what the Federal Reserve is trying to achieve. Initial jobless claims rose by 14,000 to 262,000, slightly lower than the expected 265,000. The reason why jobless claims is on the rise is the layoffs and suspended hiring in companies, especially in the technology sector. Demand for new workers is also declining as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. The four-week moving average, smoothing out the fluctuations, rose to 252,000. Another important report was the US producer price data, which unexpectedly fell in July due to lower energy prices. It dipped 0.5% from the previous month, but rose 9.8% from last year. There was also data on producer prices, which rose 0.2% from June and 7.6% from a year earlier. The numbers suggest that inflationary pressures are beginning to ease, which could eventually lead to a slowdown in consumer price growth.     In terms of the forex market, EUR/USD is trading above 1.0300 and has good chances for further growth. Consolidating beyond 1.0320 will give buyers an excellent chance to return to 1.0370, then go to 1.0430 and 1.0500. But if pressure returns around 1.0270, the pair could fall to 1.0230 and 1.0200. In GBP/USD, buyers need to stay above 1.2180 because only that can push the quote to 1.2220, 1.2260 and 1.2345. If pressure return around 1.280, the pair will fall to 1.2130 and 1.2100.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/318788
A Strong Bearish Signal For The Equity Markets And A Significant Support Factor For Dollar (USD)

Dollar (USD) Comes Back? Latin America's Currencies Perfomance

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 16.08.2022 10:58
The bullish dollar narrative was fairly straightforward  Yes, the US main challengers, China and Russia, have been hobbled in different ways by self-inflicted injuries. Still, the driver of the dollar was the expected aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve. The market accepted that after being a bit slower than ideal (though faster and before many other large central banks), the Fed would move forcefully against inflation, even if it diminished the chances of an economic soft-landing.   However, now the market seems to have a different reaction function  The euro was impressively resilient after the job growth of more than twice expectations. However, the softer than expected US CPI sent the dollar broadly lower, inflicting some apparent technical damage to the charts.  We are reluctant to chase the dollar lower and impressed in a week that the US reported a decline in CPI and PPI that the 10-year bond yield closed a few basis points higher and the first back-to-back weekly increase in two months Technically, it seems that the dollar's pullback, nearly a month-old, move is getting maybe getting stretched. We will try to identify levels that could confirm another leg lower and what would suggest the US dollar may snap back.   Dollar Index:   After reaching almost 107.00 after the stronger than expected jobs data, the Dollar Index fell to almost 104.65 in response to the softer than expected CPI. It was the lowest level since the end of June. The MACD is still falling but oversold. The Slow Stochastic looks poised to turn lower from the middle of the range. Nevertheless, we like it higher in the coming days. We target 106.30 and then 107.00. A move above 107.50 could signal a return to the highs near 109.30 from mid-July. That said, a close below 105.00 would boost the risk of another leg lower.  Euro:  The euro rallied strongly after the softer US CPI, but a key trendline drawn off the February, March, and June highs begins the new week near $1.0375 remains unchallenged. Although the momentum indicators allow for additional gains, we look for the euro to push lower in the coming days. Only a move above the trendline would give it new life. We think the greater likelihood is for the single currency to initially ease toward $1.0180-$1.0200. It may take a break of $1.01 to signal a return to the 20-year low set in mid-July near $0.9950. The US two-year premium over Germany narrowed every day last week for a cumulative 11 bp to near 2.66%. Italy's premium over Germany was trimmed by six basis points. It was the third week of convergence, but at 0.75%, it is still nearly twice what it was in June. Japanese Yen:  The greenback was pushed away from JPY135 by the decline in US rates after the CPI figures. It was sold to about JPY131.75, holding above the month's low set on August 2 near JPY130.40. However, US rates closed firmer on the week despite three softer-than-expected price reports (CPI, PPI, and import/export prices). As a result, the greenback looks poised to test the JPY135.00-50 ceiling. A move above JPY136 would target the JPY137.50 area. We have emphasized the strong correlation between changes in the exchange rate and the US 10-year yield. That correlation is off its highs though still above 0.50, while the correlation with the US two-year yield has risen toward 0.65, the highest in five months.  British Pound:   Sterling rose to $1.2275 in the broad US dollar sell-off in the middle of last week. It stalled in front of the high set on August 2, a little shy of $1.23. This sets up a potential double top formation with a neckline at $1.20. A break would re-target the two-year low set in July near $1.1760. The MACD is set to turn down. The Slow Stochastic is going sideways in the middle of the range after pulling back earlier this month. Sentiment seems poor, and in the week ahead, the UK is expected to report some easing in the labor market, accelerating consumer prices, and another decline in retail sales. Canadian Dollar:   The US dollar fell to near a two-month low last week slightly below CAD1.2730, and slipped through the 200-day moving average on an intraday basis for the first time since June 9. The test of the (61.8%) retracement of this year's rally (early April low ~CAD1.2400 and the mid-July high ~CAD1.3225) found near CAD1.2715 was successful. The US dollar recovered ahead of the weekend back to the CAD1.2800 area. Although the momentum indicators give room for further US dollar losses, we suspect a near-term low is in place and look for an upside correction toward CAD1.2850-CAD1.2900. The Canadian dollar remains sensitive to the immediate risk environment reflected in the change in the S&P 500. The correlation over the past 30 sessions is a little better than 0.60. The correlation reached a two-year high in June near 0.80. The exchange rate's correlation (30 sessions) with oil prices (WTI) set this year's high in early August near 0.60. It is now slightly below 0.50.  Australian Dollar:   Although our bias is for the US dollar to correct higher, the Aussie does not line up quite as well. It broke above the high set at the start of the month near $0.7050 and has held above it. However, its surge stalled slightly above $0.7135, and it consolidated in a narrow range around $0.7100 ahead of the weekend. The momentum indicators are constructive. The main hurdle is the 200-day moving average near $0.7150 and the (50%) retracement of this year's decline (~$0.7660 in early April and ~$6680 in mid-July) found near $0.7170. A break of this area could see a return to the June high by $0.7285.   Mexican Peso:   Latin American currencies had a good week, except for the Argentine peso, which fell by more than 1%, for the dubious honor of being the poorest performer in the emerging markets. Led by Chile (+3.9%) and the Colombian peso (3.8%), Latam currencies accounted for half of the top five performers last week. The peso's 2.7% gain was its best in five months, and the dollar was sold a little through MXN19.85, its lowest level since late June when it reached almost MXN19.82.There seems little to prevent a move toward MXN19.50. Any worries that AMLO's appointments to the central bank would block aggressive tightening of monetary policy must have evaporated as Banxico demonstrated a resolve to hike rates and shadow the US.  Chinese Yuan:   The yuan took a step lower from mid-April until mid-May. Since then, it has been trading within the range more or less seen in the second half of May. That dollar range is roughly CNY6.650 to CNY6.77. For the past month, the dollar has traded between CNY6.72 and CNY6.78, fraying the upper end of the broader range after the greenback surged broadly after the US employment data. Policymakers have signaled concern about inflation and its reluctance to ease monetary policy. It would seem the domestic policy efforts might favor a firm yuan.     Disclaimer   Source: Is the Dollar's Month-Long Pullback Over?
The Weakening Of Confidence In The British Government| Oil Prices Extended Gains And More

Pound recovers losses after jobs report

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 16.08.2022 22:55
The British pound remains under pressure. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2055, unchanged the day. The pound fell as low as 1.2007 in the Asian session, just above the symbolic 1.20 line. UK wage growth remains high The economic outlook in the UK is grim and today’s employment report didn’t bring any cheer. Unemployment claims continue to fall and the labour market remains strong, but wage growth indicates trouble. Wages dropped to 5.1% in June, down from 6.4% in May. However, real wages (adjusted for inflation) actually fell by 3% in Q2 on an annualized basis, a new record. The cost of living is thus increasing at an even faster rate and is far outpacing wage growth. The headline wage growth reading of 5.1%, which is not adjusted for inflation, may have fallen, but still remains high and will likely force the BoE to continue hiking aggressively. The BoE has forecast that inflation will hit a staggering 13% this year, and the last thing it needs to contend with is a wage-price spiral, which could entrench inflation. The markets won’t have much time to dwell on the employment numbers, with the inflation report being released on Wednesday. Headline CPI is expected to accelerate to 9.8% in July, up from 9.4% in June. If inflation pushes higher than the estimate, it could be a nasty day for the pound. The Federal Reserve continues to send out the message that its rate hikes are far from over as the battle against inflation will continue for some time yet. The markets expect the Fed to raise rates to a peak in a range of 3.50% – 3.75%, well above the current benchmark rate of 2.50%. Despite this hawkish stance, the financial markets don’t seem to be listening. US equity markets have been rising, while the US dollar, which should be benefitting from a hawkish Fed, is struggling. The lower-than-expected July inflation report of 8.5% raised risk sentiment and sent the dollar tumbling. If inflation resumes its upward trend in August, risk appetite could evaporate and the dollar might have the last laugh. . GBP/USD Technical  GBP/USD is testing support at 1.2030. Below, there is support at 1.1925 There is resistance at 1.2153 and 1.2258   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Pound recovers losses after jobs report - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Technical analysis recommendations on EUR/USD and GBP/USD for August 19, 2022

Aussie stabilizes after slide

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 16.08.2022 22:57
The Australian dollar is steady today, after a massive 1.40% decline on Monday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7015, down 0.10% on the day. Aussie volatility continues For those looking for volatility, the Australian dollar should fit the bill. AUD/USD jumped 150 points last Wednesday and briefly pushed above the 0.7100 level for the first time since June 10th. The pair reversed sharply on Monday, falling 100 points. With Australia releasing wage growth on Wednesday and employment data on Thursday, we could see further volatility from the Aussie. Wage growth for Q2 YoY is expected to rise to 2.7%, up from 2.4% prior. There were no surprises from the RBA minutes, with the RBA repeating that its stance would be data-dependent and that there was no pre-set path for rate increases. The RBA has delivered three consecutive hikes of 50 basis points, bringing the cash rate to 1.85%. The markets are expecting another 50bp hike at the September meeting and have priced in a rate peak of 3.25% before the end of the year, which could mean rate hikes at the remaining four meetings in 2022. The RBA is in an aggressive mode due to red-hot inflation, which hit 6.1% in Q2, its highest level since 2001. The labour market remains strong, but the cost of living crisis and rising mortgage rates continue to hammer Australian households. Will domestic demand, a key driver of the economy, hold up? The RBA minutes noted that “the behaviour of household spending continued to present a key source of uncertainty for the outlook.” If domestic demand does not weaken, the RBA will be in a position to continue raising rates, and RBA officials will be closely monitoring household spending and confidence indicators. The Federal Reserve continues to send out a hawkish message that the battle against inflation is far from over and the rate hikes will continue. The markets expect the Fed to raise rates to a peak in a range of 3.50% – 3.75%, well above the current benchmark rate of 2.50%. Despite this consistent message from the Feds, the financial markets don’t seem to be listening. The lower-than-expected July inflation report of 8.5% raised risk sentiment and sent the dollar tumbling. If inflation resumes its upward trend in August, risk appetite could evaporate and the US dollar could bounce back. . AUD/USD Technical There is resistance at 0.7053, followed by a monthly resistance line at 0.7122 AUD/USD has support at 0.6968 and 0.6902 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Aussie stabilizes after slide - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Will The Outlook For The Pound-Dollar (GBP/USD) Currency Pair Be Positive

FX: GBP/USD - British Pound (GBP) To US Dollar (USD) - Forecast - 17/08/22

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 17.08.2022 10:25
Relevance up to 04:00 2022-08-18 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. The pound slowed down corrective growth at the target level of 1.2100. If the price does not settle above it, then we are waiting for a reversal with the development of support for the MACD line of the daily scale in the area of 1.1965. Further, the 1.1800 target may open.     A large layer of inflation indicators for July will be released in the UK today. The core CPI is expected to rise from 5.8% y/y to 5.9% y/y, while the overall CPI could rise from 9.4% y/y to 9.8% y/y. Only a slight weakening is expected in producer prices - their selling prices may show an increase of 16.2% y/y against 16.5% y/y a month earlier. Thus, the option with the pound's growth is possible, we will consider its details on the four-hour chart.     Growth is limited by the MACD indicator line on the H4 chart, approximately at the level of 1.2170. At the current moment, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator is turning down from the border with the territory of the growing trend. Therefore, consolidating under 1.2100 will resume the price decline in its main direction. First target at 1.1965.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/319100
Has US Dollar Index (DXY) Potential To Reach 120.00?

GBP/USD - Selling And Buying - Possible Scenarios - 17/08/22

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 17.08.2022 13:07
Relevance up to 08:00 2022-08-18 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Analysts of positions and tips for trading GBP The first test of 1.2032 occurred at a time when the MACD had just started to move down from the zero level. It gave a good entry point for short positions. Unfortunately, a sell signal did not last long. After dropping by 15 pips, the pressure on the pound sterling decreased. Closer to the middle of the day, a similar sell signal appeared, which also led to a downward movement of about 15 pips. The pound/dollar pair rose sharply in the afternoon. The test of 1.2090, where I advised selling immediately for a rebound, gave a sell signal. However, the signal did not bring the expected result.     The pound sterling declined slightly in the first half of the day following labor market data. However, the pair avoided a new big sell-off thanks to a sharp increase in average weekly earnings. After the release of the US housing market report, the pound/dollar pair asserted strength, signaling a trend reversal. Today, in the morning, the UK Consumer Price Index and the UK Retail Price Index will be in the spotlight. If these indicators climb higher, which is likely, the pound sterling will face strong bearish pressure. It will limit the upward potential of the pair. In this case, I would advise you to act according to scenario No. 2 for opening short positions. In the afternoon, there will be more crucial economic reports, namely US retail sales data. If the reading drops, it is likely to undermine a rally of the US dollar in the short term. A negative figure will indicate an impending recession. The publication of the FOMC meeting minutes will shed light on the Fed's future plans for monetary policy in the autumn. If there are hints at less aggressive rate hikes, it could fuel demand for risky assets. Fed official Michelle Bowman will deliver a speech today, however, traders are likely to ignore it. Buy signal Scenario No.1: it is recommended to open long positions on the pound sterling today if the price reaches 1.2125 (green line on the chart) with the prospect of a rise to 1.2176 (thicker green line on the chart). At the 1.2176 level, I recommend closing all long positions and opening short ones, keeping in mind a correction of 30-35 pips from the given level. The par may advance significantly only if UK inflation data is positive. Important! Before opening long positions, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero level and it has just started to rise from it. Scenario No.2: it is also possible to buy the pound sterling today if the price approaches 1.2096. At this moment, the MACD indicator should be in the oversold area, which will limit the downward potential. It may also trigger an upward reversal of the market. The pair is expected to lift up to the opposite levels of 1.2125 and 1.2176. Sell signal Scenario No.1: it is recommended to open short positions if the pair hits 1.2096 (the red line on the chart). It could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The bears should focus on the 1.2051 level. At this level, it is better to close all short positions and open long ones, keeping in mind a correction of 20-25 pips from the given level. The pressure on the pound sterling may return if the UK CPI index rises. Important! Before opening short positions, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero level and it has just started to decline from it. Scenario No.2: it is also possible to sell the pound sterling today if the price drops to 1.2125. At that moment, the MACD indicator should be in the overbought area, which will limit the upward potential of the pair. It may also trigger a downward reversal. The pair is projected to edge lower to the opposite levels of 1.2096 and 1.2051.     What is on the chart: The thin green line is the entry point where you can buy the trading instrument. The thick green line is the estimated price where you can place a Take profit order or lock in profits manually as the price is unlikely to rise above this level. The thin red line is the entry point where you can sell the trading instrument. The thick red line is the estimated price where you can place a Take profit order or lock in profits manually as the price is unlikely to decline below this level. The MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to pay attention to overbought and oversold zones. Important. Novice traders need to make very careful decisions when entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is better to stay out of the market. It will help you avoid losses due to sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during the news release, always place Stop loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing Stop loss orders, you can lose the entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use money management but trade in large volumes. Remember that for successful trading it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, following the example of the one I presented above. Relying on spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy of an intraday trader.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/319128
What Trend Is Forecast For The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Pair

Forex: British Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) - Hot Forecast - 17/08/22

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 17.08.2022 13:29
Relevance up to 19:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. It was expected that the growth rate of industrial production in the United States will slow down from 4.2% to 4.0%, which should have been the reason for a slight rebound. In principle, everything happened just like that, and the pound strengthened its positions a bit. Only now the data turned out to be slightly worse than forecasts. Previous results were revised down to 4.0%. And the growth rates themselves slowed down to 3.9%. Industrial production (United States):     Today, the pound will continue to grow, already due to data on inflation in the UK, which should accelerate from 9.4% to 9.9%. Such a strong rise in inflation will convince market participants that the Bank of England will not only continue to raise interest rates, but will do so more actively. This alone is enough for the steady growth of the British currency. Inflation (UK):     At the same time, the pound's growth will obviously be of a protracted nature, as it will be supported by data on retail sales in the United States. And their growth rates should slow down from 8.4% to 8.1%. So we are talking about a decrease in consumer activity, which is the main locomotive of the American economy. Retail Sales (United States):     The GBPUSD currency pair rebounded from the psychological level of 1.2000 with surgical precision. As a result, there was an increase in the volume of long positions, which caused the pound to strengthen by about 100 points. The technical instrument RSI H4 crossed the 50 middle line upwards at the time of the rollback, which indicates a slowdown in the downward cycle from the resistance level of 1.2300. Alligator H4 has an intersection between the green and red MA moving lines. In this case, this crossover corresponds to a slowdown in the downward cycle. While Alligator D1 has a lot of crossovers, which indicates a slowdown in the medium-term downward trend.     Expectations and prospects The rollback stage may well slow down the move around 1.2120/1.2150. In this case, there will be a gradual increase in the volume of short positions, returning the quote to the psychological level of 1.2000. The scenario of prolongation of the current rollback will be considered if the price stays above the value of 1.2160 in a four-hour period. Comprehensive indicator analysis in the short-term and intraday periods has a buy signal due to the rollback stage. Indicators in the medium term have a variable signal, due to a slowdown in the downward trend.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/319112
The Recovery Of The GBP/USD Pair May Be Temporary, The Trend Remains Bearish

British Pound (GBP) To US Dollar (USD) - Is FX Cable Dominated By Bears? 1 GBP To USD - Technical Analysis | 18/08/22

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 18.08.2022 11:53
Relevance up to 10:00 2022-08-19 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair is still under the bearish pressure and recently fell to two week's low at the level of 1.1994 (at the time of writing the analysis). Any sustained violation of the level of 1.2003 will likely result in another down wave towards the level of 1.1933 and below. The momentum is weak and negative already at the H4 time frame chart, so the bearish dominance is obvious. Please keep an eye on the trend line breakout/bounce (thick orange line on the chart) as the price action around the line will give us more clues regarding the down move strength. The larger time frame trend (daily and weekly) remains down until further notice.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.2206 WR2 - 1.2156 WR1 - 1.2141 Weekly Pivot - 1.2123 WS1 - 1.2099 WS2 - 1.2082 WS3 - 1.2040 Trading Outlook: The Cable is way below 100 and 200 DMA , so the bearish domination is clear and there is no indication of down trend termination or reversal. The bulls are now trying to start the corrective cycle after a big Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made on the weekly time frame chart, however there is no visible progress here yet. The next long term target for bears is seen at the level of 1.1410. Please remember: trend is your friend.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/289042
The Bears Are In Full Control Of The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Market

Forex: GBP/USD (British Pound To US Dollar) - Friday May Be A Turbulent Day For This Pair!

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 18.08.2022 20:24
The British pound continues to lose ground and has fallen below the 1.20 line for the first time since July 26th. GBP/USD is trading at 1.1996 in the North American session, down 0.47%. Pound eyes UK retail sales It has been a busy economic calendar in the UK this week. Retail sales will wrap things up on Friday, with the markets bracing for more bad news from the consumer spending front. Retail Sales fell 5.8% YoY in June, and the forecast for July stands at -3.3%. A continuing decline in consumer spending shouldn’t be a surprise, given the grim economic picture. Headline inflation rose to 10.1% YoY in July, up from 9.4% in June and above the forecast of 9.8%. The BoE has been raising interest rates in an effort to curb inflation, but don’t hold your breath. The central bank has warned that it doesn’t expect inflation to peak before it hits a staggering 13% in October. As well, real wages fell 3% in Q2, making it even harder for workers to keep up with the cost-of-living crisis, and the energy price cap will increase substantially in October. The British consumer is trying to ease the pain by cutting back on spending, but this will hurt the economy and could cause the economy to tip into a recession even faster. The FOMC minutes on Wednesday didn’t contain anything unexpected. The minutes reiterated that monetary tightening would continue until inflation eased significantly. Meeting participants noted that the pace of rate hikes would ease once inflation cooled down. They also said that inflation is not showing signs of peaking. The markets do not appear to have absorbed this hawkish message, with the surprise drop in US inflation resulting in the markets expecting a U-turn in Fed policy. This has led to gains in the equity markets and a downward trend for the US dollar. . GBP/USD Technical  GBP/USD is testing support at 1.2030. Below, there is support at 1.1925 There is resistance at 1.2153 and 1.2258 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. British dips below 1.20, retail sales next - MarketPulseMarketPulse
The Bank Of England (BoE) Chasing The Inflation. Forex: GBPUSD, CNHJPY, EURUSD And Others

The Bank Of England (BoE) Chasing The Inflation. Forex: GBPUSD, CNHJPY, EURUSD And Others

John Hardy John Hardy 19.08.2022 13:41
Summary:  The USD is breaking higher still, with important levels falling versus the Euro and yen yesterday. But the pain in sterling is most intense as presaged by the lack of a response to surging UK rates. Can the Bank of England do anything but continue to chase inflation from behind, caught between the Scylla of inflation and the Charybdis of a vicious recession? Also, USDCNH lurks at the top of the range ahead of another PBOC rate announcement on Monday. FX Trading focus: USD wrecking ball swinging again. UK faced with classic ugly choice between taking the pain via inflation or a severe recession The US dollar strength has picked up further after yesterday saw the breakdown in EURUSD below 1.0100 and a shot through 135.50 in USDJPY as longer US yields pushed to local highs. GBPUSD has been a bigger move on sterling weakness as discussed below.  A bit of resilient US data (especially the lower jobless claims than expected and a sharp revision lower of the prior week’s data taking the momentum out of the rising trend) has helped support the USD higher as longer US yields rose a bit further, taking the 10-year US treasury yield benchmark to new local highs, although we really need to see 3.00% achieved there after a few recent teases higher with no follow through higher. Looking forward to next week, the market will have to mull whether it has been too aggressive in pricing the Fed to pivot policy next year on disinflation and an easy-landing for the economy. The steady drumbeat of Fed pushback against the market’s complacency, together with a few of the recent data points (ISM Services, nonfarm payrolls, yesterday’s claims, etc.) has seen some of the conviction easing. But the key test will come next Friday, when Fed Chair Powell is set to speak on the same day we get the July PCE inflation data. Keep USDCNH on the radar through the end of today on the risk of an upside break above the range and Monday as the PBOC is set for a rate announcement (consensus expectations or another 10 bps of easing).   Chart: GBPUSD Lots at stake for sterling as discussed below, as it is a bit scary to see a currency weaken sharply despite a massive ratcheting higher in rate expectations from the central bank. The fall of 1.2000 has set in motion a focus on the 1.1760 cycle low, with an aggravated USD rise here and tightening of global financial conditions possibly quickly bringing the spike low toward 1.1500 from the early 2020 pandemic outbreak panic into focus. It is worth noting that the lowest monthly closing level for GBPUSD since the mid-1980’s is 1.2156. Without something dramatic to push back against USD strength next week from Jackson Hole, it is hard to see how this month may set the new low water mark for monthly closes. Source: Saxo Group GBPUSD slipped below 1.1900 this morning after breaking below the psychologically important 1.2000 level yesterday. As noted in the prior update, it’s remarkable to see the marked weakness in sterling despite the marking taking UK short rates sharply higher – with 2-year UK swaps over 100 basis points higher from the lows early this month. The Bank of England has expressed a determination to get ahead of the inflation spike and the market has priced in a bit more than a 50-basis-points-per-meeting pace for the three remaining BoE meetings of 2022. But is that sufficient given the UK’s structural short-comings and external deficits? Currency weakness risks adding further to spike in inflation this year. The BoE can take a couple of approaches in response: continue with the 50 bps hikes while bemoaning the backdrop and trotting out the expectation that eventually, economic weakness and easing commodity prices will feed through to drop inflation back into the range. Or, the BoE can actually get serious and super-size hikes even beyond the acceleration the market has priced, at the risk of bringing forward and increasing the severity of the coming recession. Until this week, the BoE’s anticipated tightening trajectory had prevented an aggravated weakness in sterling in broader terms, but the currency’s weakness despite a massive mark-up of BoE expectations has ratcheted the pressure on sterling and the BoE’s response to an entirely new level. Turkey shocked with a fresh rate cut yesterday of 100 basis points to take the policy rate to 13.00%. This with year-on-year inflation in Turkey at 79.6% and PPI at 144.6%, and housing measured at 160.6%. The move took USDTRY above 18.00, though it was a modest move relative to the size of the surprise. Turkish central bank chief Kavcioglu said that the bank would also look to “further strengthen macroprudential policy” by addressing the yawning difference between the policy rate and the rate commercial banks are charging for loans (more than double the official policy rate), as the push is to continue a credit-stimulated approach, inflation-be-darned.   Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength Note: a new color scheme for the FX Board! Besides changing the green for positive readings to a more pleasant blue, I have altered the settings such that trend readings don’t receive a more intense red or blue coloring until they have reached more significant levels – starting at an absolute value of 4 or higher. So far, most of the drama in sterling is the lack of a response to shifts in the UK yield curve, the broad negative momentum has only shifted a bit here, but watching for the risk of more. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs AUDNZD is crossing back higher, AUDCAD back lower, so NZDCAD….yep. Note the CNHJPY – if CNH is to make more waves, need to see more CNH weakness in an isolated sense, not just v. a strong USD. And speaking of a strong USD, the last holdouts in reversing, USDNOK and USDCHF, are on the cusp of a reversal. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1230 – Canada Jun. Retail Sales 1300 – US Fed’s Barkin (Non-voter) to speak   Source: FX Update: USD surging again, GBP spinning into abyss
GBP/USD Pair: A Reversal Signal Will Be The Price Consolidating

Forex: GBP/USD - Technical Analysis - British Pound To US Dollar

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 19.08.2022 13:44
Relevance up to 12:00 2022-08-20 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.   Overview : GBP/USD : The bias remains bearish in the nearest term testing 1.1800 or lower. Immediate support is seen around 1.1800. A clear break below that area could lead price to the neutral zone in the nearest term. Price will test 1.1800, because in general, we remain bearish on August 19h, 2022. The GBP/USD pair continues moving downwards from the level of 1.1921 this morning. Today, the first resistance level is currently seen at 1.1921, the price is moving in a bearish channel now. The market moved from its top at 1.2056 and continued to drop towards the top of 1.2056. Today, on the one-hour chart, the current fall will remain within a framework of correction. If the trend breaks the double bottom level of 1.1850, the pair is likely to move downwards continuing the development of a bearish trend to the level of 1.1800 in order to test the weekly support 1. So, the support stands at the level of 1.1850, while daily resistance is found at 1.1921. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bearish trend around the spot of 1.1921. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.1921 (first resistance), the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level of 1.1921 (the level of 1.1921 coincides with tha ratio of 00% Fibonacci retracement, bottom price, last bearish wave). Since there is nothing new in this market, it is not bullish yet. Sell deals are recommended below the level of 1.1921 with the first target at 1.1800 and continue towards 1.1750 so as to test the second support at the same time frame. According to the previous events the price is expected to remain between 1.1921 and 1.1750 levels. Sell-deals are recommended below the price of 1.1921 with the first target seen at 1.1850. The movement is likely to resume to the point 1.1800. The descending movement is likely to begin from the level 1.1850 with 1.1800 and 1.1750 seen as new targets in coing hours. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a negative area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 1.1750 in order to test the second support (1.1750). On the other hand, if the GBP/USD pair fails to break through the weekly pivot point level of 1.2056 today, the market will move upwards continuing the development of the bullish trend to the level 1.2275 (double top) for next month.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/289242
Mexican Gold - Peso Is Climbing Up. Russia Is Building Nuclear Plant In Turkey!?

Mexican Gold - Peso Is Climbing High. Russia Is Building Nuclear Plant In Turkey!?

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 19.08.2022 14:26
Overview:  The dollar is on fire. It is rising against all the major currencies and cutting through key technical levels like a hot knife in butter. The Canadian dollar is the strongest of the majors this week, which often outperforms on the crosses in a strong US dollar environment. It is off 1.5% this week. The New Zealand dollar, where the RBNZ hiked rates this week by 50 bp, is off the most with a 3.5% drop. Emerging market currencies are mostly lower on the day and week as well. The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is off for the fifth consecutive session, and ahead of the Latam open, it is off 2.1% this week. Asia Pacific equities were mostly lower, and Europe’s is off around 0.4%. It was flat for the week coming into today. US futures are lower, and the S&P and NASDAQ look poised to snap its four-week advance. Gold, which began the week near $1800 is testing support near $1750 now. Next support is seen around $1744.50. October WTI is consolidating in the upper end of yesterday’s range, which briefly poked above $91. Initial support is pegged near $88. US natgas is softer for the third successive session, but near $9.04 is up about 3.2% for the week. Europe’s benchmark is up 1.7% and brings this week’s gain to almost 20%. Demand concerns weigh on iron ore. It was off marginally today, its fifth loss in six sessions. It tumbled 8.8% this week after a 1.15% gain last week. Copper is up fractionally after rising 1.3% yesterday. September wheat is trying to stabilize. It fell more than 4% yesterday, its fifth loss in a row. It is off around 8.5% this week. Asia Pacific Japan's July CPI continued to rise  Th headline now stands at 2.6%, up from 2.4% in June, up from 0.8% at the start of the year and -0.3% a year ago. The core measure that excludes fresh food accelerated from 2.2% to 2.4%. It is the fourth consecutive month above the 2% target. Excluding both fresh food and energy, Japan's inflation is less than half the headline rate at 1.2%. It was at -0.7% at the end of last year and did not turn positive until April. The BOJ's next meeting is September 22, and despite the uptick in inflation, Governor Kuroda is unlikely to be impressed. Without wage growth, he argues, inflation will prove transitory. With global bond yields rising again, the 10-year, the market may be gearing up to re-challenge the BOJ's 0.25% cap. The yield is finishing the week near 0.20%, its highest since late July. Separately, we note that after divesting foreign bonds in recent months, Japanese investors have returned to the buy side. They have bought foreign bonds for the past four weeks, according to Ministry of Finance data. Last week's JPY1.15 trillion purchases (~$8.5 bln) were the most since last September.  China surprised the markets to begin the week with a 10 bp reduction in the benchmark 1-year medium-term lending facility rate  It now stands at 2.75%. It was the first cut since January, which itself was the first reduction since April 2020. Before markets open Monday, China is expected to announce a 10 bp decline in the 1- and 5-year loan prime rates. That would bring them to 3.60% and 4.35%, respectively. These rates are seen closer to market rates, but the large banks that contribute the quotes are state-owned. There is some speculation that a larger cut in the 5-year rate. The one-year rate was cut in January, but the 5-year rate was cut by 15 bp in May. The dollar is rising against the yen for the fourth consecutive session  It has now surpassed the JPY137.00 area that marks the (61.8%) retracement of the decline from the 24-year high set-in mid-July near JPY139.40. There may be some resistance in the JPY137.00-25 area, but a retest on the previous high looks likely in the period ahead. The Australian dollar is off for the fifth consecutive session and this week's loss of 3% offset last week's gain of as similar magnitude and, if sustained, would be the largest weekly decline since September 2020. The Aussie began the week near $0.7125 and recorded a low today slightly below $0.6890. The $0.6855-70 area is seen as the next that may offer technical support. The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at CNY6.8065 (median in Bloomberg's survey was CNY6.9856). The fix was the lowest for the yuan (strongest for the dollar) since September 2020. Yesterday's high was almost CNY6.7960 and today's low was a little above CNY6.8030. To put the price action in perspective, note that the dollar is approaching the (61.8%) retracement of the yuan's rise from mid-2020 (~CNY7.1780) to this year's low set in March (~CNY6.3065). The retracement is found around CNY6.8250. Europe UK retail sales surprised to the upside but are offering sterling little support  Retail sales including gasoline rose by 0.3% in July. It is the second gain of the year and the most since last October. Excluding auto fuel, retail sales rose by 0.4%, following a 0.2% gain in June. It is the first back-to-back gain since March and April 2021. Sales online surged 4.8% as discounts and promotions drew demand, and internet retailers accounted for 26.3% of all retail sales. Separately, consumer confidence, measured by GfK, slipped lower (-44 from -41), a new record low. Sterling is lower for the third consecutive session and six of the past seven sessions. The swaps market continues to price in a 50 bp rate hike next month and about a 1-in-5 chance of a 75 bp move. Nearly every press report discussing next month's Italian elections cited the fascist roots of the Brothers of Italy, which looks likely to lead the next government  Meloni, who heads up the Brothers of Italy and has outmaneuvered many of her rivals, and may be Italy's next prime minister, plays the roots down. She compares the Brothers of Italy to the Tory Party in the UK, the Likud in Israel, and the Republican Party in the US. The party has evolved, and the center-right alliance she leads no longer wants to leave the EU, it is pro-NATO, and condemns Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The center-right alliance may come close to having a sufficient majority in both chambers to make possible constitutional reform. High on that agenda appears to transform the presidency into a directly elected office. The Italian presidency has limited power under the current configuration, but it has been an important stabilizing factor in crisis. Ironically, the president, picked by parliament, stepped in during the European debt crisis and gave Monti the opportunity to form a technocrat government after Berlusconi was forced to resign in 2011. Fast-forward a decade, a government led by the Conte and the Five Star Movement collapsed and a different Italian president gave Draghi a chance to put together a government. It almost last a year-and-half. Its collapse set the stage for next month's election. The center-left is in disarray and its inability to forge a broad coalition greases the path for Meloni and Co. Italy's 10-year premium over German is at 2.25%, a new high for the month. Last month, it peaked near 2.40%. The two-year premium is wider for the sixth consecutive session. It is near 0.93%, more than twice what it was before the Draghi government collapsed. Some critics argue against the social sciences being science because of the difficulty in conducting experiments  Still an experiment is unfolding front of us. What happens when a central bank completely loses its independence and follows dubious economic logic?  With inflation at more than two decades highs and the currency near record lows, Turkey's central bank surprised everyone by cutting its benchmark rate 100 bp to 13% yesterday. Governor Kavcioglu hinted this was a one-off as it was preempting a possible slowdown in manufacturing. Even though President Erdogan promised in June rates would fall, some observers link the rate cut to the increase in reserves (~$15 bln) recently from Russia, who is building a nuclear plant in Turkey. The decline in oil prices may also help ease pressure on Turkey's inflation and trade deficit. The lira fell to new record-lows against the dollar. The lira is off about 7.5% this quarter and about 26.4% year-to-date. Significant technical damage has been inflicted on the euro and sterling  The euro was sold through the (61.8%) retracement objective of the runup since the mid-July two-decade low near $0.9950. That retracement area (~$1.0110) now offers resistance, and the single currency has not been above $1.01 today. We had suspected the upside correction was over, but the pace of the euro's retreat surprises. There is little from a technical perspective preventing a test on the previous lows. Yesterday, sterling took out the neckline of a potential double top we have been monitoring at $1.20. It is being sold in the European morning and has clipped the $1.1870 area. The low set-in mid-July was near $1.1760, and this is the next obvious target and roughly corresponds to the measuring objective of the double top.  America With no dissents at the Fed to last month's 75 bp hike, one might be forgiven for thinking that there are no more doves  Yet, as we argued even before Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, once regarded as a leading dove, admitted that his dot in June was the most aggressive at 3.90% for year-end, hawk and dove are more meaningful within a context. Kashkari may be more an activist that either a hawk or dove. Daly, the San Francisco Fed President does not vote this year, suggested that a Fed funds target "a little" over 3% this year would be appropriate. She said she favored a 50 bp or a 75 bp move. The current target range is 2.25%-2.50%. and the median dot in June saw a 3.25%-3.50% year-end target. St. Louis Fed President Bullard says he favors another 75 bp hike next month. No surprise there. George, the Kansas, Fed President, dissented against the 75 bp hike in June seemingly because of the messaging around it, but it's tough to call her vote for a 50 bp hike dovish. She voted for the 75 bp move in July. She recognizes the need for additional hikes, and the issue is about the pace. George did not rule out a 75 bp hike while cautioning that policy operates on a lag. Barkin, the Richmond Fed President, also does not vote this year. He is the only scheduled Fed speaker today.  The odds of a 75 bp in September is virtually unchanged from the end of last week around a 50/50 proposition.  The October Fed funds implies a 2.945% average effective Fed funds rate. The actual effective rate has been rocksteady this month at 2.33%. So, the October contract is pricing in 61 bp, which is the 50 bp (done deal) and 11 of the next 25 bp or 44% chance of a 75 hike instead of a half-point move. Next week's Jackson Hole conference will give Fed officials, and especially Chair Powell an opportunity to push back against the premature easing of financial conditions  The better-than-expected Philadelphia Fed survey helps neutralize the dismal Empire State manufacturing survey. The median from Bloomberg's survey looked for improvement to -5 from -12.3. Instead, it was reported at 6.2. Orders jumped almost 20 points to -5.1 and the improvement in delivery times points to the continued normalization of supply chains. Disappointingly, however, the measure of six-month expectations remained negative for the third consecutive month. Still, the plans for hiring and capex improved and the news on prices were encouraging. Prices paid fell to their lowest since the end of 2020 (energy?) and prices received were the lowest since February 2021. The Fed also asked about the CPI outlook. The median sees it at 6% next year down from 6.5% in May. The projected rate over the next 10-years slipped to 3%. Canada and Mexico report June retail sales today  Lift by rising prices, Canada's retail sales have posted an average monthly gain this year of 1.5%. However, after a dramatic 2.2% increase in May, Canadian retail sales are expected (median in Bloomberg' survey) to rise by a modest 0.4%. Excluding autos, retail sales may have held up better. Economists look for a 0.9% increase after a 1.9% rise in May. Through the first five months of the year, Mexico's retail sales have risen by a little more than 0.5% a month. They have risen by a 5.2% year-over-year. Economists expected retail sales to have slowed to a crawl in June and see the year-over-year pace easing to 5.0%. The greenback rose the CAD1.2935 area that had capped it in the first half of the week. It settled near CAD1.2950 yesterday and is pushing closer to CAD 1.2980 now. Above here, immediate potential extends toward CAD1.3035. The US dollar is gaining for the third consecutive session against the Canadian dollar, the longest advancing streak in a couple of months. Support is seen in the CAD1.2940-50 area. The Mexican peso is on its backfoot, and is falling for the fourth session, which ended a six-day rally. The dollar has met out first target near MXN20.20 and is approaching the 20-day moving average (~MXN20.2375). Above there, the next technical target is MXN20.32. The broader dollar gains suggest it may rise above the 200-day moving average against the Brazilian real (~BRL5.2040) and the (38.2%) of the slide since the late July high (~BRL5.5140) that is found near BRL5.2185.    Disclaimer   Source: The Dollar is on Fire
Technical analysis recommendations on EUR/USD and GBP/USD for August 19, 2022

Technical analysis recommendations on EUR/USD and GBP/USD for August 19, 2022

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 19.08.2022 17:51
Relevance up to 12:00 2022-08-22 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. EUR/USD     Higher timeframes After two days of deceleration and uncertainty, bears again showed activity and continued to decline, closing the previous day below the golden cross on the daily chart (1.0111). The current task is to eliminate the daily cross, then the bears' attention will be to overcome the important historical support of 1.0000 and restore the downward trend of most higher timeframes (0.9952 minimum extreme). If bullish sentiment returns to the market, the next important resistances have accumulated now in the area of 1.0188 - 1.0219 (daily cross).     H4 – H1 The main advantage on the lower timeframes now belongs to the bears. However, there has been a slight corrective deceleration in recent hours. The main reference points for the development of an upward correction today are the key levels, located at 1.0120 (central pivot point of the day) and 1.0172 (weekly long-term trend). If the decline continues, classical pivot points (1.0046 – 1.0007 – 0.9933) can provide support. In addition, the target for the breakout of the H4 cloud (1.0055 – 1.0020) also belongs to intraday targets. *** GBP/USD     Higher timeframes Sellers yesterday managed to cope with the supports that held back the development of the movement 1.2000 (psychological level) - 1.2026 (daily medium-term trend) - 1.2046 (weekly short-term trend) and closed the day much lower. The current benchmark in this direction is the minimum extremum (1.1759), its update will allow restoring the downward trend of the higher timeframes.     H4 – H1 On lower timeframes, we observe the development of a downward trend. The first support for classic pivot points (1.1873) is currently being tested. The next supports are at 1.1819 (S2) and 1.1716 (S3). The key levels are now acting as resistance, therefore, in the event of a correction, they will meet bulls at the levels of 1.1976 (the central pivot point) – 1.2052 (weekly long-term trend). *** In the technical analysis of the situation, the following are used: higher timeframes – Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) + Fibo Kijun levels H1 - Pivot Points (classic) + Moving Average 120 (weekly long-term trend)   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/319405
Forex: EUR/USD And GBP/USD - US Dollar (USD) Shows Its Teeth

Forex: EUR/USD And GBP/USD - US Dollar (USD) Shows Its Teeth

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 22.08.2022 13:42
Relevance up to 11:00 2022-08-23 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The general atmosphere of global uncertainty, as a rule, contributes to the dollar's growth as the most liquid of safe havens. Today, the US currency index rose to 108.40, demonstrating a confident upward trend. Last week, it jumped 2.3%, showing the best performance since April 2020. The dollar's growth is due to the strengthening of hawkish sentiment in the markets after a number of speeches by Federal Reserve members on Friday. Among the most convincing at the moment is the statement of the president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, James Bullard. He said he was considering supporting a third consecutive 75 basis point rate hike in September, and added that he was not ready to say that the economy had experienced the worst spike in inflation. The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Thomas Barkin, made a similar position, the emphasis was also placed on accelerated rate hikes. Market players are also waiting for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to make a hawkish statement in the coming days, in line with recent comments by other central bank officials supporting the dollar. This week, the index may rise above 110.00 if the August preliminary PMIs for the major economies show a further slowdown in economic growth or a reduction in activity. In general, the new week is quite rich in macroeconomic events, so the end of the month and the summer period may be quite volatile. The focus of the traders is the Jackson Hole Symposium. This will be the main event of the week.     The euro briefly crossed the key parity level of $1 again, as the recession in Germany becomes more and more obvious. Natural gas prices are approaching 300 euros per megawatt hour after Gazprom announced the closure of the Nord Stream gas pipeline to Germany for three days of maintenance. In addition, the business activity index is expected to show in August that manufacturing activity in Europe's largest economy contracted at the fastest pace since May 2020, and the services sector contracted the most in 18 months. More optimistic traders believe that the report on the European Central Bank monetary policy meeting on Thursday will sound tough, which may save the euro from a more significant collapse. In July, the ECB surprised the markets and raised interest rates by 50 basis points, as inflation in the bloc continues to exceed record levels. However, Commerzbank believes that the ECB's rhetoric, no matter what it is, will not matter now. Actions are important, not conversations. The interest rate policy should show at least some signs of reducing the lag behind the Fed. Only in this case, the euro will feel some support. The EUR/USD pair is expected to be particularly susceptible to a revision of the Fed's baseline expectations, as the ECB has taken the second strongest possible dovish position among G10 central banks after the Bank of Japan.     EUR/USD, as well as GBP/USD, continue to remain under pressure from the pressing dollar. The euro cannot recover after a sharp drop last week and is trading below the 1.0050 mark. The GBP/USD pair continues to remain under pressure near 1.1800. In the short term, EUR/USD and GBP/USD quotes are likely to stabilize around 1.0000 and 1.1800, respectively. Given the dynamics and the situation inside Europe and in the world, the euro risks breaking down the level of 1.0000. Bears will aim for a further decline in the exchange rate to 0.9950. However, for such a scenario, stability below the 1.0105 level is important. If it is broken up, the pair will take a course for recovery. Support is located at 1.0000, 0.9980, 0.9945. Resistance is at 1.0070, 1.0115, 1.0140. The pound now remains without any internal support. It failed to take advantage of better-than-expected UK economic data and a sharp rise in market expectations for Bank of England interest rates last week.Stronger wage growth, the annual consumer price index, which exceeded 10% on Wednesday, and impressive retail sales data all contributed to the increase in rates. The pound's inability to get at least some support from this movement speaks volumes, more precisely about its weakness. The forecast for GBP/USD does not look favorable, the pair may fall in the near future beyond expectations. The quote risks falling to 1.1500.     Until Powell's speech at the symposium, which will take place on Friday, the markets will be in limbo. Uncertainty is on the side of dollar bulls. A number of US economic indicators will help determine market appetite, each of which is important in its own way. These include the second estimate of GDP for the last quarter and the July value of the preferred US inflation indicator from the Fed. The underlying PCE price index will be carefully studied by investors in search of anything confirming the signs of moderate inflationary pressure recently noted in official figures. Due to the fact that financial markets lowered earlier expectations of a Fed interest rate hike in September to 0.50%, the pound/dollar exchange rate will be at risk this week due to everything that pushes market prices back in favor of a greater tightening by 0.75%.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/319542
Euro (EUR) And British Pound (GBP) Losing The Race Against U.S. Dollar (USD)! 1 Year Statistics

Euro (EUR) And British Pound (GBP) Losing The Race Against U.S. Dollar (USD)! 1 Year Statistics

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 22.08.2022 16:44
The recent behavior of the euro and the British pound and their potential weakness against the rest of the world's major currencies is beginning to bring concerns about a sustained deterioration in the prospects for these currencies. As Bloomberg commentators note, the behavior of the pound and the euro are worrisome. We have recently seen large shifts in the euro and pound's short-term market interest rates against the U.S. dollar, with a simultaneous weakening of the GBP/USD and EUR/USD exchange rates. Last week was the worst week for the pound in nearly two years, and at the same time, the yield on the UK's 2-year bond rose by 50 basis points. Typically, the opposite happens in developed markets. Expectations of a central bank rate hike and thus an increase in short-term market yields generally strengthen the currency. The collapse in the correlation between the exchange rate and interest rates is usually associated with emerging markets, which may have lost the battle for the credibility of keeping inflation within the inflation target. The energy dependence of the UK and Europe as a whole means that their balance sheets could deteriorate in the near future, while energy commodity inflation shows no signs of abating. Rate hikes in such a situation may not stem the tide of depreciation of the aforementioned currencies, Bloomberg reports. Thus, it seems that the winter months for the EUR and GBP may be a kind of test of the credibility of the economies in the eyes of investors. Their abandonment of investments in the EUR and GBP despite rising interest rates could be potentially worrying. Moreover, it could change the entire scene of the foreign exchange market. In the dollar index, the euro has a weighting of more than 57 percent, while the pound has a weighting of more than 11 percent. Together, these two currencies alone have a weighting of almost 70 percent. Since the beginning of the year, the euro against the U.S. dollar has lost almost 12 percent, and the British pound almost 13 percent. In contrast, since August 2021, the euro has lost almost 15 percent to the dollar, and the British pound less than 14 percent. Of the major currencies, only the Japanese yen has fared worse and has weakened by almost 20 percent against the U.S. dollar over the year. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.   Source: Pound and euro similar to currencies of emerging markets?
Shocking Forex Forecast! Check How EUR/USD, USD/JPY And GBP/USD May Develop In The Neatr Future!

Shocking Forex Forecast! Check How EUR/USD, USD/JPY And GBP/USD May Develop In The Neatr Future!

ING Economics ING Economics 23.08.2022 11:37
The dollar has corrected around 3% from its highs seen last month. This has prompted a few questions about whether the dollar has peaked? Many trading partners would hope that to be the case, but the reality is that the Fed is likely to stay on track with its tightening. We think the dollar is more likely to retest its highs than correct much lower. Driving this view has been consistent rhetoric from the Fed that it will not be blown off target by some softer activity or price data. In fact, it now looks like US activity is accelerating again as lower gasoline prices leave more dollars in the pockets of US consumers. The 2023 US recession narrative looks a tough one to sell near term. And rising energy prices should continue to drive a wedge between the exporters of North America and the importers of Europe, meaning a much greater conviction of a recession in Europe. The ECB’s second 50bp rate hike on 8 September may well conclude its tightening cycle. Rate spreads and the energy income shock make it a very tough environment for the euro. EUR/USD should therefore drift near parity for much of 2H22. Elsewhere in Europe, the Swiss franc continues to be guided higher by the Swiss National Bank. Sterling remains vulnerable on recession fears. Beyond some substantial fiscal stimulus, sterling’s best hope is that the Bank of England delivers on most of the aggressive tightening currently priced into markets. Surging gas prices also spell trouble for the CEE4 currencies. The Polish zloty in particular looks unlikely to hold recent gains. Emerging market currencies have enjoyed a mini-renaissance over the last month. But a difficult external environment makes it hard to sustain those rallies until the dollar turns.     EUR/USD Late cycle economies will keep the dollar bid Current spot: 1.0241 • Defining business cycles has been a hazardous job over recent years, but it looks pretty clear that the US is a late-cycle economy with high inflation and low growth. This stage of the cycle is synonymous with inverted yield curves – which we have today. The dollar typically stays bid in this part of the cycle until convictions grow that the Fed will ease, and US 2-year yields start dropping. That is probably a story for 1Q23 and not today. • We look for another 125bp of Fed hikes this year and just 50bp from the ECB (in Sep.). Risks look skewed to even higher US rates. • With Europe entering recession on the back of a looming energy crisis this winter, EUR/USD can stay near the lows for 2H22. USD/JPY Staying supported Current spot: 133.44 • USD/JPY has found some good support under 132 and should stay reasonably supported for 2H22. Expect surveys of the Japanese buy-side in September to show greater allocations towards unhedged foreign bond purchases. US Treasury yields pay 250bp+ over JGBs and it is too expensive to hedge those US bond investments – now 3% p.a. through the 3m JPY forwards. • The Fed Jackson Hole of Aug 25-27th looks a dollar positive event risk. It is far too early for the Fed to signal the all-clear on inflation. The bigger risk is that 2023 Fed easing is priced out. • Like the euro, the yen is suffering from the negative terms of trade shock. These indices are at the worst levels of the year. GBP/USD Slip-sliding away Current spot: 1.2098 • GBP/USD remains vulnerable on the back of continuing dollar strength and the UK economy trapped by slowing growth and a hawkish Bank of England. The only good news we have seen for sterling recently is that the Bank of Israel plans to double the pound’s weighting in its FX reserve portfolio! • A tricky environment for risk assets in 2H22 – slowing growth, tighter monetary conditions – suggests the growth sensitive pound will struggle. • The only thing helping it should be the BoE remaining hawkish all year – lifting rates 50bp to 2.25% in September – and at least  making sterling an expensive sell. No reprieve for Cable this year. Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
What Trend Is Forecast For The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Pair

Living In The United Kingdom Is More And More Expensive Every Day

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.08.2022 17:26
Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Selling the pound continues. The GBP/USD pair has again fallen into a perfect storm and is sinking deeper to the bottom. Yesterday it set another and, it seems, not the last anti-record this week. The steep peak of the pound – what is the reason? A series of failures haunts the British currency. The pound did not have time to recover after a loud fall last week, when it lost almost 300 points against USD, as it was covered by a new wave of short positions. On Monday, the pound fell against the dollar to the lowest level since mid-July at 1.1785. And on Tuesday night, the pound reached a new 2.5-year low – the mark of 1.1758. Several factors contributed to the steep peak of the GBP/USD pair, including a large-scale rally of the dollar. However, the strongest pressure on the pound continues to be exerted by the worsening cost-of-living crisis in the UK. Consumer concerns about the further strengthening of inflation increased significantly after the statement of the consulting company Cornwall Insight, made on Monday. Analysts said that as early as this Friday, the British industry regulator Ofgem may announce an increase in energy prices. According to experts, since October, the average annual electricity bills on the peninsula will grow by more than 80% – up to 3,500 pounds ($4,128.6). In the face of this news, talk about a slowdown in economic growth in the UK has resumed again. Also, the degree of anxiety about the impending recession has increased due to another strike. This time, employees of the country's largest container port Felixstowe are demanding higher wages. According to economists, this 8-day strike could lead to trade disruption worth more than $800 million. Meanwhile, this is not the first large-scale protest in the United Kingdom this summer. Earlier, railway workers and bus drivers made demands for higher wages. It's only getting worse According to many analysts, by the end of this year and the beginning of next year, the cost of living crisis in the UK will worsen even more. This will be facilitated by further price increases in the country. Yesterday, the American bank Citi published an updated forecast for inflation in Britain, according to which, at the beginning of 2023, the indicator will exceed the Bank of England's target level by 10 times and reach a 47-year peak of 18%. High inflation will continue to require the BoE to take more decisive action on interest rates. However, the central bank is unlikely to go all-in, like the US Federal Reserve, given its gloomy forecast for economic growth. Recall that in August, the BoE raised the base interest rate by 50 bps, to 1.75%. This was the sixth increase since the end of 2021 and the largest in 27 years. Also at its last meeting, the BoE warned that the UK would enter a protracted recession by the end of this year. Such a scenario is likely to prevent British officials from taking a more hawkish course. Now the markets estimate the probability of a 75 bps rate hike by the BoE in September at only 13%. Most analysts expect that the indicator will be increased by 50 bps. As for the Fed, it is also preparing to raise rates next month. At the same time, it is possible that the United States may increase the indicator by 75 bps for the third time in a row. But even if the Fed slows down its pace of tightening, the difference in interest rates between the UK and the US will still remain quite large, which will contribute to further depreciation of the pound. By the way, this month the GBP/USD pair has already plunged by more than 3%. Now the British currency is one of the worst in the group of ten. What to expect from the pound this week? The S&P Global will publish preliminary data on the UK business activity index on Tuesday. It is expected that the composite indicator will decrease from 52.1 to 51.3, which will indicate a slowdown in the growth of business activity in the private sector. A reading below 50 may remind investors of the risk of the UK economy sliding into recession by the end of the year and put significant pressure on the pound. Also, the pound's short-term prospects are overshadowed by the upcoming Fed symposium in Jackson Hole. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech on Friday, which is the second day of the meeting. The market expects to hear new comments on further interest rate hikes. Moreover, many traders hope that Powell will remain true to the current monetary rate. Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD: the patient is more likely dead than alive  
The Weakening Of Confidence In The British Government| Oil Prices Extended Gains And More

Forex: GBP/USD Has Gone Up After The Release Of US New Home Sales

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 23.08.2022 21:39
The British pound has jumped 0.82% today, as the currency has rebounded somewhat from its worst week of the year. GBP/USD plunged 2.53% last week, as the US dollar has found its mojo after weeks of beating a retreat. GBP/USD has climbed today after US New Home Sales dropped to 511 thousand in July, down from 585 thousand in August and well below expectations. UK manufacturing slides The UK Manufacturing PMI crashed into contraction territory in August. The index fell to 46.0, down from 52.1 in July and shy of the estimate of 51.1. The dismal reading is part of a pan-European downward trend in manufacturing, which has been made worse by the prolonged war in Ukraine. Output has been hampered by higher costs, a drop in demand and supply chain problems. CBI Manufacturing Output fell by 7% in the three months to August, according to the CBI, down from +6% in the three months to July. This was the first decline in output since February 2021. Manufacturers are also affected by rising energy bills and higher interest rates, and the situation is only expected to get worse. The energy cap will rise in October and the BoE will have to continue raising rates in order to defeat inflation. There was better news from Services PMI, which was almost unchanged at 52.5, pointing to weak expansion (52.6 prior). Still, it’s hard to see how the UK can avoid a recession with weak growth and spiralling inflation. Business optimism is dropping, and that will likely lead to a cutback in spending, hiring and investment, which won’t help the economy one bit. There is plenty of anticipation ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, but investors shouldn’t overlook some key events prior to Powell’s speech. Durable goods orders will be published on Wednesday, with the headline reading expected to slow to 0.6% in July, down sharply from 2.0% in June. Thursday brings US GDP for Q2, which is expected to come in at -0.8% QoQ, after a 0.9% reading in the first quarter. With the Fed stating that US data will be critical in determining its rate policy, the dollar could show some movement after these releases, just as it fell sharply today after the soft New Home Sales reading. GBP/USD Technical  GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.1924 and 1.2005 There is support at 1.1699 and 1.1568 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. GBP/USD jumps on weak US housing data - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Investors' Concerns About The Coming Recession In The UK, Will GBP/USD Pair Reach Its Lowest Level In History?

Forex: British Pound (GBP) To US Dollar (USD) - Technical Analysis - 23/08/22

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.08.2022 21:43
Relevance up to 20:00 2022-08-24 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.     Overview : The GBP/USD pair reverses from 1.1879 and drops to multi-day lows near 1.1817 - this price formed a bottom this morning in the hourly chart. Right now, the GBP/USD pair dropped further and bottomed at 1.1716. It then trimmed losses, rising to 1.1879. The move lower took place amid a stronger US dollar across the board. Probably, the main scenario is continued decline towards 1.1817 (sentiment level). The GBP/USD pair broke support at the level of 1.1817 which acts as a resistance now. According to the previous events, the GBP/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.1817 and 1.1716. Immediate support is seen around 1.1817. A clear break below that area could lead price to the neutral zone in the nearest term. Price will test 1.1716, because in general, we remain bearish on August 23th, 2022. Therefore, we expect a range of 101 pips in coming hours (before the end of session). The trend is still below the 100 EMA for that the bearish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the downside. Hence, the price spot of 1.1879 remains a significant resistance zone. Since the trend is below the 38.2% Fibonacci level (1.1879), the market is still in a downtrend. Today, on the one-hour chart, the current drop will remain within a framework of correction. If the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.1879 (major resistance), the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level of 1.1879. Since there is nothing new in this market, it is not bullish yet. Overall, we still prefer the bearish scenario. Consequently, there is a possibility that the GBP/USD pair will move downside. The structure of a fall does not look corrective. In order to indicate a bearish opportunity below 1.1879, sell below 1.1879 with the first target at 1.1716. Besides, the weekly support 2 is seen at the level of 1.1650. The market will decline further to 1.1600. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a negative area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 1.1600 in order to test the third support (1.1600) in coming days. However, traders should watch for any sign of a bullish rejection that occurs around 1.1979.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/289685
Eurozone: Retail Sales Rose Because Of Increased Food And Fuel Consumption

EUR/USD: PMI Data Made US Dollar (USD) To Decrease, GBP/USD And Nasdaq Shock

Jing Ren Jing Ren 24.08.2022 08:30
EURUSD sees limited bounce The US dollar retreated after PMI data showed a slowdown in business activity. However, the euro’s fall below parity and July’s low indicates that sellers are in control. As last month’s rally turned out to be a dead cat bounce, the path of least resistance would be down. After the RSI sank into oversold territory, 0.9900 from December 2002 saw some bargain hunting. Though the former demand zone around 1.0040 could be a tough level to crack. Renewed selling would send the single currency towards 0.9700. GBPUSD breaks daily support The pound bounces over upbeat services PMI. The pair had previously failed to clear the supply zone (1.2300) on the daily chart. The bears’ latest push below 1.1770 has invalidated the mid-July rebound. This is a confirmation that the downtrend could resume in the weeks to come, and the price action might be heading towards March 2020’s lows around 1.1400. 1.1720 is an intermediate support in case of a brief consolidation. Stiff selling pressure could be expected at the support-turned-resistance at 1.1950. NAS 100 struggles for bids The Nasdaq 100 feels the pressure from signs of a slowing US economy. A break below the psychological tag of 13000 has put the bulls under pressure. 12800 on the 30-day moving average is another test of buyers’ resolve in the short-term. 13080 has become a fresh supply area, and as the RSI recovers into the neutral area, renewed selling interest could cap a potential rebound. The bulls will need to reclaim 13400 before the index could secure a foothold again. Otherwise, it could be vulnerable to another round of sell-off.
The Recovery Of The GBP/USD Pair May Be Temporary, The Trend Remains Bearish

Thursday's US Data May Let British Pound (GBP) Increase

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 24.08.2022 14:17
The British pound has reversed directions today and is in negative territory. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.1778, down 0.44%. Weak US New Home Sales sends pound higher Tuesday was an interesting day for the pound. Despite weak manufacturing data out of the UK, GBP/USD gained close to 1% before paring some of these gains. The reason for the pound’s spike came from across the pond, as US New Home Sales for July was much weaker than expected, with a reading of 511 thousand. This was below the estimate of 575 thousand and the June reading of 585 thousand. The pound promptly jumped after this housing release, as soft data raised market hopes that the Federal Reserve would ease up on interest rates due to a cooling economy. We could see the pound react to upcoming key US releases – Durable Goods Orders today and Preliminary GDP on Thursday. If these readings are weaker than expected, I would not be surprised to see the pound gain ground. The UK Manufacturing PMI slid into contraction territory in August. The index fell to 46.0, down from 52.1 in July and below the estimate of 51.1. The dismal reading is part of a pan-European downward trend in manufacturing, which has been made worse by the prolonged war in Ukraine. Output has been hampered by higher costs, a drop in demand and supply chain problems. The week wraps up with Fed Chair Powell addressing the Jackson Hole Symposium. The Fed has been hammering out a hawkish message, saying it plans to continue raising rates, as the titanic battle against inflation is far from over. The markets haven’t listened all that carefully, ever since the drop in US inflation raised speculation that the Fed might make a U-turn and ease up on policy. It will be interesting to see how the markets react to what is expected to be a hawkish message from Powell. GBP/USD Technical  GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.1924 and 1.2005 There is support at 1.1699 and 1.1568 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Pound under pressure, US Durable Goods looms - MarketPulseMarketPulse
USD/JPY Reaching 130-135? It Seems It Maybe Not Impossible

Forex: British Pound (GBP) To US Dollar (USD) Chart Shows A Downtrend - GBP/USD - Technical Analysis - 24/08/22

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 24.08.2022 14:44
Relevance up to 09:00 2022-08-25 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair had broken below the trend line support around the level of 1.1916 and made a new swing low at the level of 1.1716. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1890 and this level is the next target for bulls. Nevertheless, after the 163 pips bounce form the new swing low, the bulls up move was capped at 1.1876 (trend line resistance) and the market reversed down again. The larger time frame trend (daily and weekly) remains down until further notice.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.18835 WR2 - 1.18488 WR1 - 1.18267 Weekly Pivot - 1.18141 WS1 - 1.17920 WS2 - 1.17794 WS3 - 1.17447 Trading Outlook: The Cable is way below 100 and 200 DMA , so the bearish domination is clear and there is no indication of down trend termination or reversal. The bulls has failed big time to continue the corrective cycle after a big Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made on the weekly time frame chart last week. The next long term target for bears is seen at the level of 1.1410. Please remember: trend is your friend.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/289753
What Trend Is Forecast For The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Pair

Forex: GBP/USD Downgoing Trend. Is There A Chance?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 24.08.2022 15:05
Relevance up to 19:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Preliminary data on business activity indices in the UK, in principle, remained unnoticed, although in fact they turned out to be worse than forecasts that were not even comforting. Only the index of business activity in the service sector turned out well, which decreased from 52.6 points to 52.5 points, with a forecast of 51.8 points. The manufacturing index, instead of decreasing from 52.1 points to 51.3 points, literally collapsed to 46.0 points. As a result, the composite index of business activity decreased from 52.1 points to 50.9 points, although it was expected to decline only to 51.3 points. Composite PMI (UK): The market revived only on the release of similar data on the United States, which also turned out to be noticeably worse than forecasts. Only the manufacturing index turned out to be better than them, which fell from 52.2 points to 51.3 points, while it was expected to fall to 51.1 points. But the index of business activity in the service sector fell from 47.3 points to 44.1 points. But they were waiting for its growth to 48.0 points. Because there is nothing surprising in the fact that the composite business activity index, instead of rising from 47.7 points to 49.0 points, fell to 45.0 points. Composite PMI (United States): Such weak data made it possible for the pound to rise above the 1.1800 mark, where it continues to be in. Given that the macroeconomic calendar is almost empty today, most likely the market will stagnate in anticipation of tomorrow, when the conference starts in Jackson Hall. Where Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will give his speech, from whom they are waiting for signals about the adjustment of the policy of the US central bank. Moreover, in the direction of lowering the growth rates of interest rates. The GBPUSD currency pair, after a short stagnation within the support level of 1.1750, increased the volume of long positions. This resulted in forming a technical pullback in the market by about 120 points. Given the overheating of short positions in the pound for one and a half weeks, the current pullback is the least that could happen on the market. The technical instrument RSI H4 left the oversold zone at the time when the rollback is formed. The signal to buy was the critical oversold level of 17.65. The MA moving lines on the Alligator H4 indicator are still pointing down as the retracement is relatively small compared to the down cycle. Expectations and prospects Despite the scale of the pullback, the pound is still oversold. For this reason, keeping the price above 1.1880 may push bulls to form a full-size correction in the market. Also, in order to prolong the downward trend, the quote needs to stay below the level of 1.1750 in a four-hour period. Comprehensive indicator analysis in the short-term and intraday periods indicates a long position due to a rollback. In the medium term, the indicators are oriented to sell, due to updating the local low of the downward trend. Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 24/08/2022
Eurozone: Retail Sales Rose Because Of Increased Food And Fuel Consumption

EUR/USD Can Surprise Us Today! Forex Market Developments May Be Gripping! ECB Minutes Are Released This Afternoon!

ING Economics ING Economics 25.08.2022 09:52
The dollar is slightly softer today as the People's Bank of China (PBoC) seemed to issue a protest against recent renminbi weakness with a stronger fixing. Additional stimulus measures from China are also helping the commodity complex. Yet US yields remain at their highs and dollar dips should be limited before tomorrow's speech from Fed Chair Powell The People's Bank of China seems to have issued a protest against recent renminbi weakness with a stronger fixing USD: Watch out for initial claims and Fed speakers today The dollar is slightly softer today and risk sentiment is marginally better. Activities by Chinese authorities probably account for both of these developments but are not seen as game-changing. On the dollar side, the recent upside breakout in USD/CNY had hit emerging currencies and contributed to recent dollar strength. The fear was that the PBoC was going to allow another 6% fall in the renminbi, similar to April/May this year. However, for the first time in recent weeks, the PBoC has fixed the renminbi stronger than model-based estimates had suggested – fixing USD/CNY at 6.8536 versus 6.8635 from the models. The PBOC typically uses fixings to direct market sentiment and today's message seems to be that the renminbi might have fallen too far, too fast. Additionally, China has announced new fiscal stimulus measures (largely on the infrastructure side) worth around CNY1trn. Yet this is not particularly large and looks unlikely to turn around the sentiment on China which is currently weighed by its zero-Covid policy and unwinding the excesses of the property sector. News from China may be enough to slow dollar strength today but looks unlikely to reverse core trends of higher energy prices weighing on the importers in Europe and Asia, plus the Fed having unfinished business with inflation. On this latter subject, today sees a raft of Fed speakers before tomorrow's main event of the week – Fed Chair Jerome Powell's keynote speech on the economic outlook. What impact could he have on markets? Well, US yields have firmed back up this week and our colleagues in the rates strategy department have made the good point that market-based inflation expectations are rising even as rates are going higher – suggesting the Fed will be in no mood to soften its stance. The hawkish Fed should keep the dollar supported on dips. In addition to Fed speakers today, we should see a modest upward revision to US 2Q GDP data and the weekly initial claims data. Buy-side surveys have suggested that it would take initial jobless claims moving above 300k (now 250k) to spark a Fed pivot. Given heavy long dollar positioning, the FX market does seem very sensitive to any softer than expected US data, hence the need to watch initial claims today. What does this all mean for  DXY? 108.10/15 looks important intra-day support and should determine whether DXY needs a correction back to the 107.00 area. We remain bullish on the dollar on the back of the Fed and the energy story, but heavy positioning is probably the biggest risk to the dollar right now.  Chris Turner EUR: German IFO and ECB minutes in focus EUR/USD is enjoying the slightly softer dollar environment and re-challenging parity. 1.0015/20 looks key intra-day resistance. Above there, the risk is of a short squeeze all the way to 1.0135. Determining whether we get that short squeeze today will be the US data (above), the August German IFO, and the release of the minutes of the July ECB minutes in which it hiked 50bp. Typically the ECB minutes are not a market mover, but today could shed light on whether the central bank wanted to cram in some hikes while it could. The market currently prices 57bp hikes at the 8 September meeting and 125bp by year-end. Notably, yield spreads have been moving in favour of EUR/USD this week (as UK rates have dragged eurozone rates higher more quickly than those of the US). Conditions could be ripe for a short squeeze. But major challenges from the gas crisis and the Fed remaining hawkish suggest EUR/USD rallies may stall in the 1.01/1.02 area this month. Chris Turner GBP: Gas drags Bank of England pricing around Surging gas prices look to be dragging Bank of England (BoE) pricing around, where markets now price 170bp of BoE tightening by year-end. This gas story looks here to stay for the next few months, with one of the fresh risks being whether the US hurricane season disrupts US gas production and LNG exports. With the market long dollars, Cable is at risk of a short squeeze. We see 1.1880 as key intra-day resistance here above which we could be looking at a retest of 1.20. For EUR/GBP we would still favour the 0.8400 area as higher GBP rates force foreign holders of UK Gilts to lower rolling forward hedge ratios.  Chris Turner CEE: All eyes on the forint, again Regional currencies are showing the first signs of relief, but we think it is too early to announce the end of the sell-off. Although the Polish zloty has stabilised after a week of weakness and the forint has shown rapid appreciation, gas prices are testing new highs and Friday's Jackson Hole symposium may once again return support to the US dollar. For the Polish zloty, we see a sideways move at the moment and a wait-and-see approach for further global developments. Today, however, all attention will be back on the forint and the National Bank of Hungary (NBH). The central bank has its weekly meeting scheduled for today, but like last week, we expect the one-week deposit rate to remain unchanged. Yesterday's move has brought some calm to the FX market, plus the NBH is scheduled to hold a regular monetary policy meeting on Tuesday next week. Thus, in our view, the NBH is saving its ammunition for the full meeting and does not want to risk a shot without effect, taking a lesson from the July sell-off. On the other hand, the market may still have some expectations that we think will not be met today, which again might not bring good news for the forint. Elsewhere, we could see some positive headlines regarding the negotiations between the Hungarian government and the European Commission. However, only from the Hungarian side, which leaves us cautious about the further development of this story. So overall, a move back towards 415 EUR/HUF is not out of the question over the coming days and we will see what the NBH reaction will be next week. Still, the forint is the only currency in the region currently supported by a rising interest rate differential and we should see a HUF rally back below EUR/HUF 400 in the case of positive news from the European Commission. However, this is certainly not a matter for the next few days and the forint will still have a tough time. Frantisek Taborsky  Read this article on THINK TagsPeoples Bank of China Jerome Powell FX Daily FX Dollar Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
GBP/USD Pair: A Reversal Signal Will Be The Price Consolidating

British Pound To US Dollar May Catch You By Surprise! FX: GBP/USD - Long - When To Buy British Pound? Shorts - When To Sell GBP?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 25.08.2022 11:12
Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair Pound tested 1.1821 at a time when the MACD was just starting to move above zero, which was a good signal to buy. However, the quote did not increase much, and after rising by just 10 pips, it returned to 1.1821, then completely collapsed to 1.1787. This level was tested, but the MACD line was far from zero, so the downside potential was limited.     The lack of statistics in the UK led to a decline in GBP/USD yesterday morning, but it was offset by weak data on the US economy released in the afternoon. It is likely that the bullish dynamics will remain today because even though there are no important reports scheduled to be released, the pair has recovered from the yearly lows. And even though retail sales data in the UK will not lead to a strong surge in volatility, US reports on GDP and jobless claims will set the direction of the market. But the start of the Jackson Hole symposium will be much more interesting as the meeting will certainly affect sentiment. For long positions: Buy pound when the quote reaches 1.1859 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1911 (thicker green line on the chart). Growth could occur, but only in the morning. Take note that when buying, the MACD line should be above zero or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.1824, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1859 and 1.1911. For short positions: Sell pound when the quote reaches 1.1824 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1784. Pressure could return at any moment, especially if the US reports better-than-expected economic data, and if the Fed remains hawkish on their monetary policy. Take note that when selling, the MACD line should be below zero or is starting to move down from it. Pound can also be sold at 1.1859, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1824 and 1.1784.     What's on the chart: The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the GBP/USD pair. The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level. The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the GBP/USD pair. The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level. MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones. Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-08-26 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/319861
What Trend Is Forecast For The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Pair

Forex: (GBP/USD) British Pound To US Dollar - What Are The Possible Scenarios? - 25/08/22

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 25.08.2022 11:23
Trend analysis (Fig. 1) GBP/USD will continue increasing on Thursday, starting from 1.1792 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) to 1.1894, which is the 23.6% retracement level (red dotted line). Quotes may rise to the historical resistance level of 1.1928 (blue dotted line) when testing this level, but then it will bounce down to lower price levels.     Fig. 1 (daily chart) Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis -uptrend Fibonacci levels - uptrend Volumes - uptrend Candlestick analysis - uptrend Trend analysis - uptrend Bollinger bands - uptrend Weekly chart - uptrend Conclusion: GBP/USD will rise from 1.1792 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) to the 23.6% retracement level at 1.1894 (red dotted line), go to the historical resistance level of 1.1928 (blue dotted line), then return to lower price levels. Alternatively, the pair could move from 1.1792 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) to the 23.6% retracement level at 1.1894 (red dotted line), then fall to the 85.4% retracement level at 1.1837 (dashed blue line). Quotes will resume increasing after these movements.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-08-26 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/319871
The Recovery Of The GBP/USD Pair May Be Temporary, The Trend Remains Bearish

Forex: GBP/USD Showing Impulse Moves While The Downward Cycle

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 25.08.2022 15:47
Relevance up to 20:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. The market is clearly frozen in anticipation of tomorrow's speech by Jerome Powell. Most likely, the head of the Federal Reserve will clarify the further pace of interest rate hikes. In terms of statistics, durable goods orders in the US did not make any impression as the volume remained unchanged. But the previous data was revised for the better, from 1.9% to 2.2%. Orders for durable goods (United States): Today's data on jobless claims is also unlikely to affect the market even though the number of initial applications is forecasted to increase by 17,000, which is a lot. This is because the estimate for repeated requests have been revised for the better, that is, a decline by 1,000 instead of a rise by 5,000. Continued claims (United States): Obviously, investors will not take risks, preferring to wait for Powell's speech tomorrow. EUR/USD formed a short-term flat within 0.9900/1.0000. A temporary slowdown can serve as a process of accumulation of trading forces in the upcoming acceleration in the market. GBP/USD rebounded from the support level of 1.1750. This reduced the volume of short positions, which slowed down the downward cycle. Most likely, the pair will continue to concentrate for some time within the base of the trend, then show impulse moves.   Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading tips for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on August 25
What Trend Is Forecast For The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Pair

FX: British Pound (GBP) To US Dollar (USD) - Technical Analysis - 26/08/22

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.08.2022 10:26
Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair has been seen testing the trend line resistance around the level of 1.1850 and so far no important breakout occurred. The nearest horizontal technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1890 and this level is the next target for bulls. Nevertheless, after the 163 pips bounce form the new swing low, the bulls up move was capped at 1.1876 as the momentum move down below the level of fifty. The larger time frame trend (daily and weekly) remains down until further notice.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.18835 WR2 - 1.18488 WR1 - 1.18267 Weekly Pivot - 1.18141 WS1 - 1.17920 WS2 - 1.17794 WS3 - 1.17447 Trading Outlook: The Cable is way below 100 and 200 DMA , so the bearish domination is clear and there is no indication of down trend termination or reversal. The bulls has failed big time to continue the corrective cycle after a big Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made on the weekly time frame chart last week. The next long term target for bears is seen at the level of 1.1410. Please remember: trend is your friend. Relevance up to 08:00 2022-08-27 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/290113
Sebastian Seliga Comments On EUR/USD, Dollar Index, XAUUSD And S&P 500 - 29/08/22

Forex: GBP/USD. Dollar Will Get Stronger And Stronger

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.08.2022 10:34
Relevance up to 07:00 2022-08-27 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Yesterday there was one signal formed to enter the market. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and see what happened. I paid attention to the 1.1849 level in my morning forecast and advised making decisions from it. An unsuccessful attempt by the bulls to continue the pair's growth in the first half of the day resulted in forming a false breakout in the area of 1.1849 and a signal to sell the pound. And although the pair fell by 25 points, I expected a stronger downward movement. The technical picture changed in the second half of the day, but it was not possible to receive signals to enter the market. When to go long on GBP/USD: Today, there is still no important fundamental statistics for the UK, so traders will wait for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech and react to his statements - there is no other reason for a surge in volatility. Taking into account that trading is carried out in the area of moving averages, the best scenario would be long positions in the area of the nearest support at 1.1794, which will give a chance for a continuation of the upward correction with a return to 1.1835. A breakthrough and test from top to bottom of this range will testify to the continued growth of GBP/USD and create a buy signal with growth to a more distant level of 1.1872, a breakthrough of which will depend entirely on Powell's statements. The farthest target will be the area of 1.1921, where I recommend taking profits. If the GBP/USD falls and there are no bulls at 1.1794, the pressure on the pair will increase. A breakthrough of this range will allow the bears to break out of the triangle and continue the downward trend. In this case, I advise you to postpone long positions until the next support at 1.1756. You can buy there only on a false breakout. I recommend opening long positions on GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from 1.1718, or even lower - around 1.1684, counting on correcting 30-35 points within the day. When to go short on GBP/USD: Yesterday, the bears tried with all their might to keep the market under their control, and they succeeded. Good statistics for the US provided help. The lack of statistics on the UK today is unlikely to benefit anyone. I do not rule out a sharp movement from the pound up to the area of 1.1835 even before Powell's speech. The best scenario for selling the pound would be forming a false breakout at this level, which would allow us to return to the intermediate support at 1.1794. A breakdown and reverse test of this range will provide an entry point for selling with a fall to 1.1756 and will cross out all the bulls' efforts to build an upward correction of the pair. A more distant target will be the area of 1.1718, where I recommend taking profits. In case GBP/USD grows and there are no bears at 1.1835, the chances of a larger upside correction will seriously increase, and bulls will have an excellent opportunity to return to 1.1872. Only a false breakout there will provide an entry point into short positions based on the pair moving down. If there is no activity there, I advise you to sell GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from 1.1921, counting on the pair's rebound down by 30-35 points within the day. COT report: According to the Commitment of Traders (COT) report from August 16, both short positions and long positions increased, but these changes no longer reflect the real current picture. Serious pressure on the pair, which began in the middle of last week, continues now, and for sure those who want to buy the pound in the current difficult macroeconomic conditions will become less and less. Ahead of us is a meeting of American bankers in Jackson Hole, which may lead to even greater strengthening of the dollar against the pound. This will happen on the condition that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announces the preservation of the committee's previous position regarding the active and tough increase in interest rates, counting on the further fight against inflation and bringing it back to normal. The latest COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions rose 1,865 to 44,084, while short non-commercial positions rose 506 to 77,193, further narrowing the negative non-commercial net position to -33,109 versus -34,468. The weekly closing price remained virtually unchanged at 1.2096 versus 1.2078. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out in the area of 30 and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the sideways nature of the market before important events. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands In case the pair goes down, the lower border of the indicator around 1.1794 will act as support. Description of indicators Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart. Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart. MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9 Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20 Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.   Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD: plan for the European session on August 26. COT reports. The pound is preparing to break through the triangle
GBP/USD Pair: A Reversal Signal Will Be The Price Consolidating

Money Markets Are Expecting The Bank Of England To Rise Rates Next Month

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.08.2022 10:54
Relevance up to 08:00 2022-08-27 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The Jackson Hole Symposium is in full swing. Today, everyone is waiting for the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve. The further dynamics of dollar currency pairs, including the GBP/USD, depends on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's comments The dollar is preparing to take off This week's highlight is the Fed Economic Forum at Jackson Hole. It should culminate in Powell's speech today. Markets are hoping that the head of the Fed will shed light on the central bank's future plans for interest rates. Signs of easing inflationary pressures in the US this month have sparked speculation that monetary tightening might slow down. However, a series of hawkish comments by Fed members last week and this week have left markets believing that the Fed will not loosen its grip on rising prices. Inflation in America is still at record highs. The annual rate was 8.5% in August, well above the Fed's target of 2%. Ahead of today's event, Fed fund futures traders estimate a 61% likelihood of a 75 bps rate hike in September. Expectations of a more hawkish tone from Powell provide significant support to the dollar. Over the week, the US currency index rose by 0.38%, and since the beginning of August its growth has amounted to 2.5%. One of the currencies that shows the worst dynamics in relation to the greenback continues to be the British pound. Due to the large difference in interest rates between the Bank of England and the Fed, the pound has fallen against the dollar by about 12% this year and risks falling even lower in the foreseeable future. If Powell signals a third consecutive 75 bps rate hike at Jackson Hole, the GBP/USD pair could head for another steep plunge. Recall that earlier this week, the pound hit its lowest level against the dollar since March 2020. The rate collapsed on the back of a decline in the PMI index for the manufacturing sector in the UK. This morning, the pound is still trading near a 2.5-year low, despite its strong rise the day before. The GBP/USD jumped 0.5% on Thursday to hit 1.1844. According to many analysts, yesterday's growth of the asset is nothing more than just a technical reset. In other words, we saw temporary relief as part of a long-term weakening trend. What will happen to the pound? Most forecasts for the pound are now negative. Experts believe that the GBP/USD pair will almost never react to the comments of the governor of the British central bank, which will be made during the forum. For now, money markets are expecting the BoE to be more likely to raise rates by 50bps next month. At the same time, the scenario, which includes a possible increase by 75 bps, is almost not considered. And yet, let's assume that a hawk suddenly wakes up in BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, especially since there are weighty prerequisites for this. Today, the British energy regulator is due to announce an increase in energy prices. According to forecasts, the cost will increase by 80% in autumn, which will further accelerate the already record high inflation in the country. To reduce inflationary pressure, hypothetically, the BoE could surprise everyone and go for a sharp increase in rates in September. However, we should not forget how this could turn out for the British economy, which is already on the verge of a recession. Growing fears of an economic slowdown are likely to outweigh the BoE's combative resolve on inflation. Therefore, analysts do not expect any miracles on the GBP/USD chart in the near future. The only scenario in which the pound can rise sharply against the dollar is the unexpected change of tone of the head of the Fed. If the Jackson Hole headliner throws a dovish surprise today, the dollar will weaken on all fronts, including against the pound. But do you yourself believe in such an outcome? Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD: Headliner of the day - Jerome Powell
Forex: Possibility Of Sharp Jump In Many Trading Instruments

Forex: Possibility Of Sharp Jump In Many Trading Instruments

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.08.2022 11:45
Relevance up to 08:00 2022-08-27 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Euro and pound remains bearish ahead of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium today. Most likely, investors are waiting for hints as to how and at what pace the US central bank is going to raise interest rates in the September monetary policy meeting. If Powell continues to be hawkish, dollar will strengthen further, while risky assets and the US stock market will fall down. But if he hints at a more restrained policy, risk appetite will surge and there will be a sharp jump in many trading instruments. In addition to Powell, the event will be attended by Fed Vice Chairman Lael Brainard and three other Governors: Lisa Cook, Philip Jefferson and Chris Waller, as well as all 12 regional Fed presidents. Some of them are planning to comment before the Fed chief, which could shed light on his final statement. The conference will also be attended by Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde did not attend the meeting, but ECB executive board member Isabelle Schnabel did. A number of other ECB officials are also present, including the heads of the Bank of France and the Bundesbank, as well as policymakers from Africa, Latin America and elsewhere. In terms of the main points of the agenda, there will be four presentations on Friday and Saturday, and there will be discussions every day with the participation of the policymakers. Speakers will also cover topics such as maximum employment, potential output, fiscal constraints and central bank balance sheets. Talking about the forex market, the risk of a further decline in EUR/USD remains. Buyers need to cling to 1.0000 because without it, the pair will have a difficult time rising. Going beyond 1.0000 will open the path to 1.0030 and 1.0070, as well as to 1.0200. But if sellers were more active, the pair will fall to 0.9950, then to 0.9910, 0.9860 and 0.9820. In GBP/USD, buyers managed to push the quotes up, strengthening the chance of an upward correction. Staying above 1.1800 will open the path to 1.1840, 1.1880 and 1.1930, while falling below 1.1800 will push the quotes to 1.1750, 1.1720 and 1.1680. Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Euro and pound remains bearish ahead of Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium  
What Trend Is Forecast For The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Pair

Forex: GBP/USD Up And Down. Finally Something Changes!?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.08.2022 12:15
Relevance up to 09:00 2022-08-27 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Trend analysis (Fig. 1). The pound-dollar pair may move downward from the level of 1.1829 (close of yesterday's daily candle) to the target of 1.1759, the support level (thick white line). After testing this level, an upward movement is possible with the target of 1.1842, the 14.6% retracement level (red dotted line). Upon reaching this level, the price may continue to move upward with the target of 1.1893, the 23.6% retracement level (red dotted line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – down; Fibonacci levels – down; Volumes – down; Candlestick analysis – down; Trend analysis – up; Bollinger bands – up; Weekly chart – up. General conclusion: Today, the price may move downward from the level of 1.1829 (close of yesterday's daily candle) to the target of 1.1759, the support level (thick white line). After testing this level, an upward movement is possible with the target of 1.1842, the 14.6% retracement level (red dotted line). Upon reaching this level, the price may continue to move upward with the target of 1.1893, the 23.6% retracement level (red dotted line). Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.1829 (close of yesterday's daily candle), the price may move down to the lower fractal 1.1716 (daily candle from 08/23/2022), where an upward move is possible with the target of 1.1842, the 14.6% retracement level (red dotted line). After testing this level, the price may continue to move up.   Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Indicator analysis: Daily review of GBP/USD on August 26, 2022
Potentially Longer Lasting Inflation In The Europe May Cause British Pound (GBP) And Euro (EUR) Being Beaten By US Dollar (USD)

Potentially Longer Lasting Inflation In The Europe May Cause British Pound (GBP) And Euro (EUR) Being Beaten By US Dollar (USD)

Jing Ren Jing Ren 26.08.2022 09:43
As we all know, both the US and Europe (to include the UK along with the EU) are experiencing high inflation. However, how this impacts employees is very different. Employees constitute the bulk of consumers, and therefore drive the economy. The employment culture between these major economies has important implications of how the economy could react to inflation. That, combined with different monetary policy, could be a driving force of currency fluctuations. Last month, EU CPI rose above the US'. The UK's CPI pushed above the US' the month prior. With the Fed acting more aggressively to combat inflation than European central banks, this gap could widen. That could increase the difference in how labor practice and laws affect the economy and currencies. The main differences Generally, the US has "at will" employment, which is often understood that employees can be fired for any reason. But it also means that employees can be hired for any salary, and salary changes are much more flexible. In Europe, employees typically are hired for fixed contracts, often in the framework of collective negotiation. In the US it's rare to have inflation adjustment included in the contract, whereas in Europe (particularly in the periphery) it is almost standard practice. When the cost of living starts rising at an unprecedented rate, the reaction of the labor market is quite different. In the US, employees are more prone to change jobs, looking for better salaries. This has led the BLS to report the highest "churn" rate on record, with as many as 4.6M people changing jobs in a month. Despite this, however, average wages have been declining when adjusted for inflation. Employees who can change jobs are keeping up with inflation, those who cannot are seeing their income erode. Slow and deliberate vs fast and erratic With employees locked into collective contracts, discontent over lower wages translates instead towards industrial action. In recent months, there has been a spate of warnings or outright strikes. Most recently Lufthansa's pilots were unable to reach an agreement, and might go on strike at any time. SAS had to reschedule over 300K passengers because of strikes. One of the key sticking points of these discussions is the inclusion of automatic cost of living adjustments to wages. One of the phenomena most feared by central bankers is a price-wage spiral. That's when higher prices drive workers to demand higher pay, which increases costs to produce goods, causing higher prices, and workers demanding higher pay. An automatic inflation adjustment in labor contracts makes this price-wage spiral easier to develop, and increases the potential for runaway inflation. What does it mean for the future? The theoretical way to head off a wage-price spiral is to aggressively front load interest rates, to prevent inflation rising. However, European central banks have, relatively speaking, not done that. The Fed has acted a lot more aggressively. On the one hand, because of fixed contracts and collective bargaining, wages were likely to rise slower in Europe. On the other, those rises are likely to come along with strikes and be much broader than in the US, which increases inflationary pressure in the long term. Basically, inflation might be further entrenched in Europe than in the US, implying that in the long run, the dollar could outperform the pound and Euro.
Forex: GBP/USD. The Support Has Been Rejected 3 Times. Uptrend!

Forex: GBP/USD. The Support Has Been Rejected 3 Times. Uptrend!

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 26.08.2022 17:20
Relevance up to 16:00 2022-08-27 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Overview: The resistance of GBP/USD pair has broken; it turned to support around the price of 1.1817 last week. Thereby, forming a strong support at 1.1817. The direction of the GBP/USD pair into the close this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 1.1817 and 1.1979. The GBP/USD pair climbed above the level of 1.1817 before it started a downside correction. The GBP/USD pair set above strong support at the level of 1.1817, which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected for three times confirming uptrend veracity. Hence, major support is seen at the level of 1.1817 because the trend is still showing strength above it. The level of 1.1817 coincides with the golden ratio (23.6% of Fibonacci retracement) which is acting as major support today. Another thought; the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is considered overbought because it is above 70. At the same time, the RSI is still signaling an upward trend, as the trend is still showing strong above the moving average (100), this suggests the pair will probably go up in coming hours. Accordingly, the market will probably show the signs of a bullish trend. This suggests the pair will probably go up in coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/277667 In other words, buy orders are recommended above 1.1817 level with their first target at the level of 1.1879. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 1.1929 and further to the level of 1.1979. The price of 1.1979 will act as a strong resistance and the double top has already set at the point of 1.2600. On the other hand, if a break happens at the support of 1.1716, then this scenario may become invalidated. Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical analysis of GBP/USD for August 26, 2022  
The Recovery Of The GBP/USD Pair May Be Temporary, The Trend Remains Bearish

Forex: British Pound (GBP) To US Dollar (USD) - Technical Analysis - 29/08/22

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.08.2022 10:29
Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair has broken below the technical support located at 1.1717 (the recent monthly low) and made a new, fresh low at the level of 1.1651. The nearest horizontal technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1717 and 1.1760 and this level is the next target for bulls in a case of a bounce. The momentum remains weak and negative, however, there is a bullish divergence seen on the H4 time frame chart between the price action (last low) and momentum. The larger time frame trend (daily and weekly) remains down until further notice.     Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.18043 WR2 - 1.17392 WR1 - 1.17002 Weekly Pivot - 1.16741 WS1 - 1.16351 WS2 - 1.16090 WS3 - 1.15439 Trading Outlook: The Cable is way below 100 and 200 DMA , so the bearish domination is clear and there is no indication of down trend termination or reversal. The bulls has failed big time to continue the corrective cycle after a big Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made on the weekly time frame chart last week. The next long term target for bears is seen at the level of 1.1410. Please remember: trend is your friend. Relevance up to 09:00 2022-08-30 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/290330
Eurozone: German Inflation Shocks! What Could It Mean For The Euro And European Central Bank?

Forex: EUR/USD & GBP/USD - Technical Analysis - 29/08/22

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 29.08.2022 13:33
EUR/USD     Higher time frames Last week, the pair hit a new extreme low (0.9952) and closed below the psychological level of 1.0000. If the downtrend goes on, the targets are seen at 0.9000 (psychological level) and 0.8225 (2000 extreme low). In this light, bulls will try to break through 1.0000. Ichimoku Kinko Hyo resistance is currently standing at 1.0052 – 1.0080 – 1.0135 – 1.0190 and 1.0182 (weekly short-term trend).     H4 – H1 The bullish zone is again lost. There is a strong bearish bias as trading is below the key levels of 0.9963 (weekly long-term trend) and 1.0000 (central Pivot level). A change in the balance of power will again shift if the price consolidates above these marks. Resistance is seen at 1.0054 – 1.0143 – 1.0197 (classic Pivot levels). Should bears remain strong, the quote may fall to 0.9911 – 0.9857 – 0.9768 (classic Pivot support). *** GBP/USD     Higher time frames Last week, the pair hit a new extreme low of 1.1759. This level has now turned into resistance and is seen as the nearest bullish target. Today, bears are ready to extend the downtrend, with the target at 1.1411 (2020 low).     H4 – H1 In lower time frames, there is still a strong bearish bias. The quote has tested 1.1678 support. The intraday targets stand at 1.1620 – 1.1509 (classic Pivot levels). The bullish intraday targets are seen at around 1.1789-88 (weekly long-term trend and central Pivot level). *** Indicators used in technical analysis: higher time frames: Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) + Fibo Kijun H1: Pivot Points (classic) + Moving Average 120 (weekly long-term trend)   Relevance up to 12:00 2022-08-30 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320165
Forex: GBP/USD - New, Fresh Low. The Next Target For Bulls

Forex: GBP/USD - New, Fresh Low. The Next Target For Bulls

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 30.08.2022 10:05
Relevance up to 07:00 2022-08-31 UTC+2 Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair has made a new, fresh low at the level of 1.1647 and then bounced towards the nearest technical resistance located at 1.1717. The local high was made at the level of 1.1743, but it is not enough to continue the rally. The next horizontal technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1760 and this level is the next target for bulls in a case of a bounce extension. The momentum remains weak and negative, however, there is a bullish divergence seen on the H4 time frame chart between the price action (last low) and momentum. The larger time frame trend (daily and weekly) remains down until further notice. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.18043 WR2 - 1.17392 WR1 - 1.17002 Weekly Pivot - 1.16741 WS1 - 1.16351 WS2 - 1.16090 WS3 - 1.15439 Trading Outlook: The Cable is way below 100 and 200 DMA , so the bearish domination is clear and there is no indication of down trend termination or reversal. The bulls has failed big time to continue the corrective cycle after a big Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made on the weekly time frame chart last week. The next long term target for bears is seen at the level of 1.1410. Please remember: trend is your friend. Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for August 30, 2022
What Trend Is Forecast For The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Pair

Forex: GBP/USD - UK M4 Money Supply And Mortgage Approvals Came In Better Than Expected!

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 30.08.2022 16:48
Relevance up to 15:00 2022-08-31 UTC+2 The GBP/USD pair rebounded but the price action signaled exhausted buyers already. The price increased a little only because the Dollar Index was in a corrective phase in the short term. It was trading at 1.1704 at the time of writing and it seems under strong bearish pressure. Fundamentally, the UK M4 Money Supply and the Mortgage Approvals came in better than expected while the Net Lending to Individuals was reported at 6.5B below 6.6B expected. On the other hand, the US HPI and the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI came in worse than expected. Later, the US CB Consumer Confidence is expected at 97.6 points while the JOLTS Job Openings could be reported at 10.37M. GBP/USD Flag Formation! Technically, the pair rebounded after its massive drop. The price action developed an up-channel pattern that could announce a downside continuation. Now, it is challenging the uptrend line and it could reach the 1.1685 static support as well. Staying above these downside obstacles may signal new bullish momentum. It remains to see how it will react after the US high-impact data. GBP/USD Forecast! A valid breakdown below the uptrend line and through the 1.1685 may signal a deeper drop. Dropping, closing, and stabilizing below the S1 (1.1670) could bring short opportunities. Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.   Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD: bearish pattern in play
What Trend Is Forecast For The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Pair

Forex: GBP/USD - Two Scenarios That May Happen. Check It!

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 31.08.2022 11:03
Relevance up to 08:00 UTC+2 Trend analysis (Fig. 1). The pound-dollar pair may move upward from 1.1651 (close of yesterday's daily candle) to 1.1718, the 14.6% retracement level (blue dotted line). When testing this level, continued upward movement is possible to the resistance level 1.1759 (thick white line). Upon reaching this level, the price may rise to 1.1778, the 23.6% retracement level (blue dotted line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – up; Fibonacci levels – up; Volumes – up; Candlestick analysis – up; Trend analysis – up; Weekly chart – up; Bollinger Bands – up. General conclusion: Today the price may move upward from 1.1651 (close of yesterday's daily candle) to 1.1718, the 14.6% retracement level (blue dotted line). When testing this level, continued upward movement is possible to the resistance level 1.1759 (thick white line). Upon reaching this level, the price may rise to 1.1778, the 23.6% retracement level (blue dotted line). Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.1651 (close of yesterday's daily candle), the price may move upward to 1.1718, the 14.6% retracement level (blue dotted line). In the case of testing this level, a downward movement is possible with the target of 1.1620, the lower fractal (blue dotted line).   Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: Indicator analysis: Daily review of GBP/USD on August 31, 2022
The Bears Are In Full Control Of The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Market

Sterling Pound (GBP) Problems: Weak Macroeconomic Data, Rising Inflation And The Threat Of Recession

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 31.08.2022 11:49
Relevance up to 08:00 UTC+2 The British currency's efforts to rise above the current barriers are most often unsuccessful. The pound, having made another attempt to grow, ran into obstacles in the form of weak macroeconomic data, rising inflation and the threat of recession. At the beginning of this week, the British currency collapsed to its lowest level since March 2020. The reason is increased concerns about the UK's economic prospects. Against this background, market participants massively sold the pound. In the future, the pound sank even more, especially against the euro. The catalyst for this decline was the energy crisis that engulfed European countries and became the "fuel" for the expectation of a recession in the UK. According to analysts, the gloomy outlook for the British economy pushed the pound into a downward spiral. Currency strategists at Goldman Sachs responded to this situation by providing another forecast. However, it did not please the markets, as it implied a deterioration in the medium and long-term economic prospects of the country. Recall that this year the pound has fallen by more than 13% against the dollar, and this is not the limit. According to calculations by Goldman Sachs, in the fourth quarter of 2022, the UK will be gripped by a recession. At the same time, analysts lowered the forecast of GDP growth for 2023 to -0.6%. In the current situation, inflation in the UK will grow and exceed 20% at the beginning of next year, experts emphasize. The implementation of such a scenario is possible with a further increase in gas prices in Europe. Goldman Sachs analysts note that core inflation in the UK will peak at 22.4% if the marginal price of gas soars by 80%. This indicator is several times higher than the previous forecast for inflation, which was 14.8%. Commerzbank economists agree with them, who believe that a prolonged increase in prices for blue fuel raises the risk of a recession. Against this background, it will be much larger and longer than previously expected. In such a situation, pressure is mounting on the Bank of England, so the central bank "needs to find a balance between fighting the recession and high inflation rates," Commerzbank emphasizes. Amid galloping inflation, the British currency has a constant tendency to weaken. The tense economic situation is a kind of "black hole" for the pound, which deprives it of the opportunity to fully grow. According to the currency strategists of UOB Group, in the next few weeks the GBP/USD pair may collapse to 1.1630, although it is trying hard to stay afloat. The pound remains under pressure, risking testing the March 2020 low near 1.1410. Currently, this threat has weakened a bit, as the pound has managed to slightly grow. The GBP/USD pair was trading at 1.1681 on the morning of Wednesday, August 31, trying to hold on to the positions won. The pound's efforts were relatively successful: the GBP returned to a downward trend much more often. According to economists, in early autumn, the BoE, following its American and European counterparts, will raise interest rates (by 50 bps, to 2.25%). At the same time, experts do not rule out an additional increase in rates (by 25 bps) at the central bank's next meetings. Against this background, the fragile balance of the pound raises concerns of market participants. A serious pressure on the GBP/USD pair is exerted by a reduction in the prospects for economic growth in the UK. The pound receives relative support when macroeconomic data from the United States deteriorates. However, now the markets are expecting positive statistics on the American economy, so the pound's chances to rise are small. Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Source: Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD: The pound is not a flower, but is reaching for new heights. There is no way to make them grow: it withers halfway
S&P 500, Nasdaq, EUR/USD, Brent Crude Oil And Gold Trade Lower

FX: Australian Dollar (AUD) May Decrease, GPB/USD Seems To Feel Worse | Indices: S&P 500 Plunged, So Did Nasdaq

ING Economics ING Economics 01.09.2022 08:02
USD off to a strong start at the beginning of September Source: shutterstock Macro outlook Global markets: US equities continued their slow bleed on Wednesday, the S&P500 dropping another 0.78% and the NASDAQ going 0.56% lower. This wasn’t exactly a one-way street, with some periods of strength within the session, but the downtrend was never seriously threatened. Equity futures are poised for more weakness today too, which could set the scene for other asset markets today ahead of tomorrow’s payrolls release. 2Y US Treasury yields added another 5.1bp yesterday, which probably didn’t help the tone in equities, and 10Y yields put on another 9bp to reach 3.19%.  News from the Fed: Loretta Mester is reported as saying that she favours rates above 4% next year and no cut in rates in 2023. That probably helped keep Treasury yields rising across the curve. But despite the downbeat market sentiment and rising USD rates EURUSD managed to rise to 1.004, up from 1.001 this time yesterday. In contrast, the AUD is looking troubled again today following its sell-off yesterday and sits at 0.6835, and looks more likely to keep going down than head back up. Cable too looks in bad shape, dropping to 1.1599 and the JPY is hurtling upwards and at 139.29, the question is, do we hit 140 today? Asian FX saw some decent gains from the KRW yesterday, which pulled back to 1338. The INR is also still benefitting from rumours of the inclusion of government securities into global bond indices. Today, the USD looks rampant, however, and it may well be a different story. G-7 Macro: Yesterday’s ADP survey was published with a new methodology to make it more accurate (in line with payrolls) and it delivered a weakish looking 132,000 employment gain. It’s impossible to tell if this will be reflected in tomorrow’s jobs report, but it does seem to suggest that at least a slowdown from 528,000 jobs gain reported in July is on the cards. Manufacturing ISM data is the main release from the G-7 today. A slight decrease from last month’s 52.8 reading is the median expectation. The prices paid index is also expected to come down a bit more from last month’s reading of 60.0. There are also PMI releases in Europe and German retail sales to watch out for. India: Indian 2Q22 GDP wasn’t quite as punchy as had been expected, though the heavily base-affected release is a little tricky to interpret right now. A 13.5% YoY gain was a bit down on the 15.3% increase that had been expected, but probably still leaves India on track to achieve 7% growth this calendar year. Strong investment (+20.1%YoY) and private consumption (25.9%) underpinned the result. Though the boost from the re-opening of the economy will probably fade next quarter, and the economy will face stronger headwinds from falling external demand, higher inflation and rising domestic interest rates.  The fiscal deficit figures for July actually registered a small surplus, which is an improvement on last year’s equivalent fiscal balance and should keep India on track to meeting or even beating its 6.4% (GDP) deficit target. Australia: Private capital expenditure released at 0930 SGT provides the first insight into next week’s 2Q22 GDP figure. The median forecast is for a 1% gain. A further clue comes the day before the release when we get the net trade contribution component. We are tentatively looking for a robust 1% QoQ expansion of activity in 2Q22, which will add to the pressure on the Reserve Bank to keep leaning against inflation. Korea:  The trade deficit widened to a record USD -9.4 billion in August, almost double the USD 4.8 billion deficit recorded in July. Exports grew 6.6% YoY in August (vs a revised 9.2% in July and a market consensus of 5.6%). As early data suggested, semiconductor exports were quite weak with a -7.8% drop while petroleum/chemical and automobiles led the growth. Meanwhile, imports surged 28.2% YoY in August (vs 21.8% in July and market consensus of 23.7%) due to increases in energy, semiconductors, and chemicals. Separately, Korea’s manufacturing PMI fell to 47.6 in August from 49.8 in July. This is its lowest reading since July 2020. The output index fell to only 44.6, staying below 50 for the fourth month in a row. Combining this weak PMI data with the trade deficit data and yesterday’s weaker-than-expected industrial production outcomes, we are revising our growth forecast lower for the second half of the year and now expect a small contraction Indonesia:  August inflation is set for release today.  Both headline and core inflation have been on an uptrend this year with headline inflation now past the central bank’s target.  Headline inflation will likely settle close to 5%YoY while core inflation should exceed 3%.  Accelerating inflation and a planned subsidized fuel hike were enough to prod Bank Indonesia to finally hike rates at their last meeting and we believe that BI is not done for the year.  Faster inflation, especially after the fuel hike should keep BI on a hiking path.  What to look out for: Regional PMI manufacturing and US NFP South Korea GDP and trade (1 September) Regional PMI manufacturing (1 September) China Caixin PMI manufacturing (1 September) Indonesia CPI inflation (1 September) US initial jobless claims and ISM manufacturing (1 September) Fed's Bostic speaks (2 September)  South Korea CPI inflation (2 September) US non-farm payrolls and factory orders (2 September) Read this article on THINK TagsEmerging Markets Asia Pacific Asia Markets Asia Economics Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
What Trend Is Forecast For The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Pair

GBP/USD Is Under Strong Bearish Pressure. Trading Suggestions: Sharp Break Above The Symmetrical Triangles Pattern

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 01.09.2022 09:19
The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Early in the European session, the British Pound (GBP/USD) is trading at around 1.1574. We can see the formation of a symmetrical triangle on the 4-hour chart. If the pound manages to break above this pattern, we could expect a bullish acceleration towards the 21 SMA located at 1.1670. The British pound is under downward pressure due to the gloomy outlook for the British economy. Earlier this month, the Bank of England forecast that the British economy would enter a prolonged recession from the fourth quarter of 2022. This suggests that in the medium term the pound could reach the psychological level of 1.15 and even the low of 2020 at 1.1410. The GBP/USD pair is trading below the 21 SMA located at 1.1670 and below the 200 EMA located at 1.1957. Any technical bounce towards these levels will be seen as an opportunity to sell. On the 4-hour chart, we can see the formation of a downtrend channel since August 8. In case the downside pressure continues, a technical bounce around the bottom of the downtrend channel is expected around 1.1542. Technically, GBP/USD is under strong bearish pressure and is trading around -1/8 of Murray at 1.1598. This Murray level represents a technical reversal zone. In the event that the pound resumes its bullish cycle, we should expect it to trade above 1.1596 (-1/8 Murray), which could set the stage for a recovery in GBP and it could reach the top of the downtrend channel at around 1.1780. On the other hand, if the pound continues its downward acceleration, it is expected to fall towards the area of around 1.1542. There is daily support and it could even reach -2/8 of Murray located at 1.1475. Our trading plan for the next few hours suggests a sharp break above the symmetrical triangles pattern at around 1.1596 to buy with targets at 1.1670 and 1.1780.   Relevance up to 06:00 2022-09-06 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/290925
What Trend Is Forecast For The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Pair

Serious Pressure On The GBP/USD Pair. What Happens When The Pair Goes Down Or Up?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 01.09.2022 09:58
Only one signal to sell the pound was formed yesterday. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and see what happened. I paid attention to the 1.1654 level in my morning forecast and advised making decisions on entering the market from it. A breakthrough and reverse test from the bottom up of this range gave a sell signal, which eventually resulted in a move down by more than 50 points. Before the test and false breakout of the level of 1.1654 in the afternoon, I lacked literally one point, so I couldn't get a point from there to open new short positions. When to go long on GBP/USD: Obviously, the pressure on the pound continues to increase, including due to the large spread in the interest rates of central banks. The cost of living crisis, high inflation and the British economy rapidly sliding into recession leave no chance for bulls on the pound. Against this background, it is time to talk about updating the low that was reached for the pair during the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020 - this is, for a minute, 1.1409. Today we expect the release of the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in the UK for August this year. It is unlikely that it will be revised for the better, so there is no need to have much hope for the restoration of the pair. In case GBP/USD falls further, forming a false breakout in the area of the nearest support at 1.1540 will lead to the first signal to open long positions in anticipation of a correction to the area of 1.1595. A lot also depends on this level, since its breakthrough can pull stop orders from speculative bears. A test of 1.1595 from top to bottom will testify to a return of demand for the pound and creates a buy signal with growth to a more distant level of 1.1650, where moving averages are passing, playing on the bears' side. The farthest target will be the area of 1.1714, where I recommend taking profits. If the GBP/USD falls further, which is more likely, and there are no bulls at 1.1540, the pressure on the pair will increase. A breakthrough of this range will lead to the renewal of the next annual low. In this case, I advise you to postpone long positions until the next support at 1.1479, but you can act there only on a false breakout. I recommend opening long positions on GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from 1.1409, or even lower - around 1.1360, counting on correcting 30-35 points within the day. When to go short on GBP/USD: Bears continue to push the pound downward. The only problem for them now is the beginning of a new month, which may lead to a small upward correction in the pound, which many have been expecting for a long time. Therefore, selling on the breakdown of annual lows is a rather risky strategy. It is much better to act on the basis of an upward correction and weak fundamental statistics, which is expected today in the UK. In this case, you can put a short stop with a fairly extensive potential for the pound's decline. The optimal scenario for selling GBP/USD would be forming a false breakout at the level of 1.1595, which was formed at the end of yesterday. This will make it possible to achieve a new fall and renewal of annual lows around 1.1540. A breakdown and reverse test of this range will give a new entry point for selling with a fall to 1.1479, and the area of 1.1409 will be a further target, where I recommend taking profits. In case GBP/USD grows and there are no bears at 1.1595, there will be ghostly chances for an upward correction, and bulls will get an excellent opportunity to return to 1.1650, where the moving averages play on the bears' side. Only a false breakout there will provide an entry point into short positions based on the pair moving downward. If there is no activity there, I advise you to sell GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from 1.1714, counting on the pair's rebound down by 30-35 points within the day. COT report: The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for August 23 logged an increase in both short positions and long positions. And although the latter turned out to be a bit more, these changes did not affect the real current picture. Serious pressure on the pair remains, and recent statements by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that the committee will continue to aggressively raise interest rates further have only increased pressure on the British pound, which has been experiencing quite a lot of problems lately. Expected high inflation and a looming cost-of-living crisis in the UK does not give traders room to take long positions, as a fairly large range of weak fundamentals is expected ahead, likely to push the pound even further below the levels at which it is currently trading. This week, it is important to pay attention to data on the US labor market, which, among other things, determine the Fed's decision on monetary policy. Continued resilience with low unemployment will lead to higher inflationary pressures going forward, forcing the Fed to further raise interest rates, putting pressure on risky assets, including the British pound. The latest COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions rose 14,699 to 58,783, while short non-commercial positions rose 9,556 to 86,749, leading to a slight rise in the negative non-commercial net position to -27 966 against - 33,109. The weekly closing price fell off from 1.1822 against 1.2096. Indicator signals: Trading is below the 30 and 50-day moving averages, which indicates further decline in the pair. Moving averages Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands In case the pair goes down, the lower border of the indicator around 1.1570 will act as support. In case of growth, the upper border of the indicator around 1.1650 will act as resistance. Description of indicators Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart. Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart. MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9 Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20 Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.     Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-02 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320520
The Tightening Of Monetary Policy Will Continue For Some Time

Are You Starting Your Adventure With Forex? This Is What You Should Know About EUR/USD and GBP/USD Today

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 01.09.2022 11:24
Details of the economic calendar for August 31 Eurozone inflation hit a new record high of 9.1% in August. Eurostat reports that the main growth driver is high energy prices. The high level of inflation may again push the European Central Bank to further interest rate hikes. It is worth noting that for the past two days, most speakers from the ECB have been actively advocating the possibility of raising the ECB rate by 0.75% in September. In turn, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz says that citizens will feel a significant increase in electricity prices in September. In simple terms, inflation in the EU will continue to grow. During the American trading session, employment data in the United States was published. According to the ADP report, the number of jobs in the private sector in August increased by 132,000. Forecast expected an increase of 300,000. The divergence of expectations has served as a stimulus for the local sell-off of the US dollar. As a reminder, the ADP report is often viewed by traders as a leading indicator for the US Department of Labor report due on September 2nd. Category "Interesting moments" Bloomberg: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has buried the concept of a "soft landing" of the US economy. Now the Fed's goal is to bring inflation down by slowing US economic growth below its potential level, which officials estimate at 1.8%. Analysis of trading charts from August 31 The EURUSD currency pair, despite local manifestations of activity caused by speculative interest, is still in close proximity to the parity level (1.0000). Price fluctuation within 150 points lasted for almost two weeks. This movement, in theory, can become a process of accumulation of trading forces. The GBP/USD currency pair gradually weakened, which resulted in a prolongation of the main downward trend. Details: Since August, the pound has lost 700 points (about 5.5%) of value, which is considered a strong price change, allowing short positions to overheat. Since the beginning of the medium-term trend, June 2021, the pound has lost 2,600 points in value (about 18.5%). Economic calendar for September 1 The final data on business activity indices in the manufacturing sector in Europe, the United Kingdom, and the United States are to be published today. If the indicators coincide with the preliminary estimate, the data will be ignored by market participants since they have already been priced in. The EU employment data will also be published, which may rise from 6.6% to 6.7%. This is already a negative factor for the euro if the forecast matches. During the American session, in addition to the manufacturing PMI data, weekly jobless claims in the United States will be published, where figures are assumed to rise. This is a negative factor for the US labor market, which may affect dollar positions. Statistics details: The volume of continuing claims for benefits may increase from 1.415 million to 1.438 million. The volume of initial claims for benefits may increase from 243,000 to 248,000. Time targeting: EU Manufacturing PMI – 08:00 UTC UK Manufacturing PMI – 08:30 UTC EU Unemployment – 09:00 UTC US Jobless Claims – 12:30 UTC US Manufacturing PMI – 14:00 UTC Trading plan for EUR/USD on September 1 A recent attempt to keep the price above 1.0050 proved unsuccessful. As a result, the quote again rolled back to the level of 1.0000. In this situation, do not rush, the tactics of work, as before, will be focused on the main move that will arise after the completion of the stage of accumulation of trading. We concretize the above: The upward scenario for the currency pair is taken into account after the price is held above the value of 1.0050. In order to filter out false touches, the quote needs to stay above the control value in the daily period. The downward scenario is considered in the market in the form of two steps. The local move will be considered by the trailers at the moment the price holds below 0.9970 in a four-hour period. In this case, there is a high probability of movement towards the value of 0.9900. The main move will be relevant after holding the price below 0.9890 in the daily period. This scenario will lead to a prolongation of the trend. Trading plan for GBP/USD on September 1 In this situation, market participants set their sights on the local low of 2020. There are about 150 points left to go, but given the growing oversold level of the pound sterling, a full-length technical correction is possible. The price area 1.1410/1.1525 can serve as a support on the way of sellers. What is shown in the trading charts? A candlestick chart view is graphical rectangles of white and black light, with sticks on top and bottom. When analyzing each candle in detail, you will see its characteristics of a relative period: the opening price, closing price, and maximum and minimum prices. Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a stop or a price reversal may occur. These levels are called support and resistance in the market. Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price of the story unfolded. This color selection indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the quote in the future. The up/down arrows are the reference points of the possible price direction in the future.     Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-02 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320541
Will The Outlook For The Pound-Dollar (GBP/USD) Currency Pair Be Positive

GBP/USD: Sell Or Buy? Trading Suggestion

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 01.09.2022 11:32
Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair Pound tested 1.1669 when the MACD line was just starting to move below from zero, which was a good signal to sell. Resultantly, the quote fell by 40 pips, updating the yearly low. As for long positions around 1.1628, they did not bring much result because the pair traded downwards in the afternoon. Also, no other signals appeared for the rest of the day. Pound continues to update yearly lows, so there are not many people who want to buy it. Even weak employment data in the US non-farm sector did not lead to its sharp increase yesterday afternoon. A report on business activity in the UK manufacturing sector is coming today, but it is unlikely to trigger a sharp jerk in pound. The only thing that could stop the bear market temporarily is a strong oversold for all indicators. In the afternoon, the focus will shift to the data on US jobless claims, ISM manufacturing index and speech by FOMC member Raphael Bostic. For long positions: Buy pound when the quote reaches 1.1622 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1683 (thicker green line on the chart). Although there is little chance for a rally today, an upward correction could still happen. Take note that when buying, the MACD line should be above zero or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.1572, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1622 and 1.1683. For short positions: Sell pound when the quote reaches 1.1572 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1525. Pressure could return at any moment, especially after weak statistics in the UK. Take note that when selling, the MACD line should be below zero or is starting to move down from it. Pound can also be sold at 1.1622, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1572 and 1.1525. What's on the chart: The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the GBP/USD pair. The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level. The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the GBP/USD pair. The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level. MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones. Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-02 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320534
Should Market Wait For The Australian Dollar To US Dollar (AUD/USD) Price To Return To A New Downward Move?

Further Decline In Stock Market Indices. Probability To Raise The Discount Rate.

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 01.09.2022 14:21
Last month was quite difficult for investors as they expected the Fed to tone down the rate increases, but the members insisted the opposite. It resulted to extremely high volatility, which led to a sharp decline in the stock indices of both Europe and the US. The situation in the forex market, meanwhile, was ambiguous because traders no longer believe that after a pause in raising interest rates in August, the Fed will lift them by 0.25% to 0.50% in September. Even so, the central bank continues to say that it will take advantage of the situation of the labor market and continued business activity in order to decisively suppress inflation. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester confirmed this by remarking that rates could hit 4% early next year. Most likely, the central bank will stop only when the economy deteriorates. There is a 73% probability of a 0.75% increase in the discount rate this month, and following Mester's estimate, the Fed will raise rates either by 0.25% or by 50% at the remaining 3 more monetary policy meetings. In terms of public debt, sell-offs will continue in the US, which will support dollar. Stock indices, meanwhile, will decline further, interspersed with local rebounds. Oil quotes, on the other hand, are unlikely to drop noticeably because demand remains quite large for the time being. The decline observed recently was only caused by the growth of dollar and start of recession in Europe, which forces EU countries to save on energy resources. The military conflict in Ukraine is a factor as well. As such, there is a huge chance that dollar will rise after a local rebound. It will continue to dominate markets, putting pressure on commodity assets. The upcoming report on US jobless claims and index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of Germany, the eurozone and the US will affect sentiment. Forecasts for today: AUD/USD The pair corrected to 0.6840. If selling pressure increases, the quote will fall to 0.6700. GBP/USD Although the pair is trading above 1.1570, quotes could decrease if macroeconomic statistics come out weaker than the forecasts.       Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-03 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320526
The UK Markets Remain Volatile, Possible Contraction Of The Eurozone Economy

FX: GBP/USD May Catch Us By Surprise Soon! Tomorrow's US NFP May Let Boost USD (US Dollar) Or Arouse Concerns Over Fed's Strategy

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 01.09.2022 14:54
The British pound can’t buy a break and has fallen for a fifth straight day. GBP/USD is trading at 1.1586 in Europe, down 0.29%. UK Manufacturing PMI contracts The UK manufacturing sector has been struggling for quite some time and in August, manufacturing production declined. Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.3 in August, down from 52.1 in July. This marked the first contraction (a reading below 50.0) since May 2020, during the first Covid lockdown. The PMI decline reflected a range of problems, including supply chain disruptions, port congestion, and shortages of raw materials and workers. With inflation still on the rise and fears of a recession, the manufacturing sector faces plenty of headwinds and things could get worse before they improve. Market attention now shifts to one of the key events on the economic calendar, Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls. On Wednesday, the ADP Employment report showed a drop to 130 thousand new jobs in August, down from 270 thousand. The reading was well below the estimate of 288 thousand and the lowest level since August 2021. The ADP release is not considered a reliable gauge for nonfarm payrolls, but still garners close attention as it could point to a trend in job growth. Read next: The BTC/USD Pair Looks Like A Double Bottom Price. Iran's Ministry Of Industry, Mines And Trade Has Approved The Use Of Cryptocurrencies For Imports| FXMAG.COM August Nonfarm payrolls are also expected to drop, with a consensus of 300 thousand, following the massive 528 thousand gain in July. A reading of 300 thousand or higher would point to solid job growth and would likely give the US dollar a boost, as it would give the Federal Reserve a green light to continue with its aggressive rate-tightening cycle. Conversely, a weaker-than-expected reading would raise doubts about the Fed’s pledge to stay aggressive, which could lead to a rotation out of US dollars. GBP/USD Technical  GBP/USD is testing support at 1.1672. Below, there is support at 1.1604 There is resistance at 1.1786 and 1.1854 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Pound extends losses after weak Mfg. PMI - MarketPulseMarketPulse
What Trend Is Forecast For The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Pair

How U.S. Unemployment Data Will Affect The Dollar And The GBP/USD Pair?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 02.09.2022 09:39
Yesterday, the British pound closed down 75 points. The lower shadow of the daily candle has broken through the target level of 1.1525. Consolidation below the level will open the next target – 1.1385. The Marlin Oscillator is close to the oversold zone, but still has room for decline. The price is consolidating above the support at 1.1525 on the four-hour chart, the decrease is taking place exactly, under the balance and MACD indicator lines. The Marlin Oscillator is declining in waves in downward trend territory. We are waiting for further development of the downward local trend. The US employment data for August is due out tonight, including nonfarm payrolls and the overall unemployment rate. The forecast for Nonfarm payrolls is 295-300,000, the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.5%. But the business media is raising fears about the data setback, as ADP Private Sector Employment Data came in at just 132,000 on Wednesday, versus an expectation of 300,000. And here we note two things: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change expectations were clearly too high, and , the second point is that ADP changed the data collection and analysis model in August, which led to a "weak" indicator. The most accurate predictive indicator of Nonfarm payrolls is still not ADP Non-Farm, but weekly claims for unemployment benefits - Unemployment Claims. And this indicator shows a decline from month to month; Thus, the sum of the latest applications for four weeks amounted to 987,000, and for the other previous four months in June and August - 1,011,000. At the same time, the employment index in the manufacturing sector (ISM Manufacturing PMI sub-index) showed an increase from 49.9 to 54, 2, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI itself for August remained at the previous 52.8 against expectations of a fall to 52.0. Thus, general market expectations for today's weak employment data in light of the looming global recession are likely to be disappointing. We are waiting for strong non-farms and the strengthening of the US dollar.       Relevance up to 05:00 2022-09-03 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320621
The Recovery Of The GBP/USD Pair May Be Temporary, The Trend Remains Bearish

Interesting The GBP/USD Pair's Movement

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 02.09.2022 10:18
GBP/USD 5M The GBP/USD currency pair continued to fall on Thursday, as if there were no other options for movement in principle. However, nothing can be done about this behavior of the market. The descending trend line continues to be relevant, therefore, from a technical point of view, everything is logical: there is a trend, there is a movement corresponding to the trend. The price is already far beyond the latest high at 1.1649, below which is only 1.1411, which is a 37-year low. Therefore, there are very few levels at which one could trade now. The Ichimoku indicator lines are also very far from the price. There were no macroeconomic statistics in the UK not only on Thursday, but throughout the current week. It is hardly worth even paying attention to the index of business activity in the services sector in the second assessment for August. The US ISM Services PMI is more important, but yesterday it stood at 52.8, which is in line with the month of July. As a result, there was no reaction, and the pound has to go down about 100 points in order to update its lows for four decades. In regards to Thursday's trading signals, everything was just utterly impossible - not a single signal was formed. We have already said that there are no levels or lines in the area of the current location of the price, so the signals are simply not due to what to form. Unfortunately, a rather strong movement was missed yesterday. COT report: The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report on the British pound turned out to be quite interesting. During the week, the non-commercial group opened 14,700 long positions and 9,500 short positions. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased immediately by 5,200. Despite the growth of this indicator for several months now, the mood of the big players still remains "pronounced bearish", which is clearly seen in the second indicator in the chart above (purple bars below zero = bearish mood). To be fair, in recent months the net position of the non-commercial group has been constantly growing, but the pound shows only a very weak tendency to rise. And even then, only from time to time. And now its fall has resumed altogether, so the bearish mood of major players may again begin to intensify in the near future. The non-commercial group now has a total of 86,000 short positions and 58,000 long positions open. The difference is no longer as daunting as it was a few months ago, but it's still there. The net position will have to show growth for a long time to at least equalize these figures. Moreover, COT reports are a reflection of the mood of major players, and their mood is influenced by the "foundation" and geopolitics. If they continue to be as disappointing as they are now, then the pound may still be on the "downward peak" for a long time. We should also remember that the demand for the pound is not the only thing that matters, but also the demand for the dollar, which seems to remain very strong. Therefore, even if the demand for the British currency grows, if the demand for the dollar grows at a higher rate, then the pound will not strengthen. We recommend to familiarize yourself with: Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 2. The euro has nothing to hope for and nowhere to expect help. Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 2. The pound continues to slide downhill. Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on September 2. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions. GBP/USD 1H The pound/dollar pair maintains a downward trend on the hourly timeframe thanks to the trend line. The British currency continues to fall and may continue for some time, as the market seems to have forgotten that it can not only press the "sell" button. The market does not need any specific grounds for trading now, and the pound is updating its lows almost every day. We highlight the following important levels for September 2: 1.1411, 1.1649, 1.1874, 1.1974, 1.2007. The Senkou Span B (1.1928) and Kijun-sen (1.1699) lines can also be sources of signals. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthroughs" of these levels and lines. The Stop Loss level is recommended to be set to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. The chart also contains support and resistance levels that can be used to take profits on trades. No interesting events planned in the UK again on Friday. The most important NonFarm Payrolls report will be published in the US, which can provoke a very strong market reaction. Traders will direct their attention on it. Explanations for the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.   Relevance up to 02:00 2022-09-03 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320613
Will The Outlook For The Pound-Dollar (GBP/USD) Currency Pair Be Positive

Will The GBP/USD Pair Indicate A Down Trend Or a Reversal Today?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 02.09.2022 10:53
Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair has made another fresh low at the level of 1.1498 and continues to move away from the trend line resistance. The nearest horizontal technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1622 and this level is the next target for bulls in a case of a local pull-back. The next target for bears is located at the level of 1.1410 (2020 low). The momentum remains weak and negative on the H4 time frame chart, so the larger time frame trend (daily and weekly) remains down until further notice. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.18043 WR2 - 1.17392 WR1 - 1.17002 Weekly Pivot - 1.16741 WS1 - 1.16351 WS2 - 1.16090 WS3 - 1.15439 Trading Outlook: The Cable is way below 100 and 200 DMA , so the bearish domination is clear and there is no indication of down trend termination or reversal. The bulls has failed big time to continue the corrective cycle after a big Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made on the weekly time frame chart last week. The next long term target for bears is seen at the level of 1.1410. Please remember: trend is your friend.     Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-03 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/291131
The GBP/USD Pair Follows The Trend Of The EUR/USD Pair, Could This Change?

What To Expect From The GBP/USD In Short And Long Positions?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 02.09.2022 11:43
Several market entry signals were formed yesterday. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and see what happened. I paid attention to the 1.1595 level in my morning forecast and advised making decisions on entering the market from it. A breakthrough and reverse test from the top down of this range gave a great buy signal, which, unfortunately, did not materialize due to rather weak statistics on activity in the UK manufacturing sector, which continued to decline in August this year. This was enough for the pound to fall to another annual low. In the afternoon, after the breakdown of the next support at 1.1540, a reverse test from the bottom up of this range took place with a sell signal, which resulted in the pound's decline by more than 40 points. When to go long on GBP/USD: Today there is nothing in the UK and it is obvious that the focus will be on data on the US labor market, which, with all the bears' hopes, can push the pound to rise by the end of the week, since whatever indicators come out, they are already taken into account in current quotes. Since the opening of the week, the pound has already lost more than 200 points, and it is unlikely that there will be those who want to continue selling the pair without a more or less upward correction. For this reason, I will bet on forming the lower boundary of the new rising channel around 1.1516 and on protecting this level after the release of US labor market reports. In case GBP/USD falls, forming a false breakout at 1.1516 will lead to the first signal to open long positions in anticipation of a correction to the 1.1562 area, where the moving averages pass, limiting the pair's upward potential. However, trading is now being carried out so close to this indicator, which indicates a clear lack of bearish desire to sell the pound further and an imminent correction. A lot depends on 1.1562, as its breakthrough may pull stop orders from speculative bears. A test of 1.1562 from top to bottom will testify to a return of demand for GBP/USD and creates a buy signal with growth to a more distant level of 1.1604. The farthest target will be the area of 1.1650, where I recommend taking profits. If the GBP/USD falls further and there are no bulls at 1.1516, the pressure on the pair will increase. A breakthrough of this range will lead to the renewal of the next annual low. In this case, I advise you to postpone long positions until the next support at 1.1473, but you can act there only on a false breakout. I recommend opening long positions on GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from 1.1409, or even lower - around 1.1360, counting on correcting 30-35 points within the day. When to go short on GBP/USD: Bears continue to push the pound down, making new daily lows every day, which indicates that they are still in control of the market. The only problem they may have now is the weak statistics on the US labor market, which, despite its strength, may begin to deflate after a series of fairly large interest rate hikes that took place this summer. Therefore, selling on the breakdown of annual lows is a rather risky strategy for today. It is much better to act based on an upward correction. The optimal scenario for selling GBP/USD would be forming a false breakout at the level of 1.1562, which was formed at the end of yesterday. This will make it possible to achieve a new fall and renewal of annual lows around 1.1516. A breakdown and reverse test of this range will give a new entry point for selling with a fall to 1.1473, and a longer target will be the area of 1.1409 – the low of 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic began, where I recommend taking profits. In case GBP/USD grows and there are no bears at 1.1562, there will be ghostly chances for an upward correction, and bulls will have an excellent opportunity to return to 1.1604, where the moving averages play on the bears' side. Only a false breakout there will provide an entry point into short positions based on the pair moving down. If there is no activity there, I advise you to sell GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from 1.1650, counting on the pair's rebound to the downside by 30-35 points within the day. COT report: The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for August 23 logged an increase in both short positions and long positions. And although the latter turned out to be a bit more, these changes did not affect the real current picture. Serious pressure on the pair remains, and recent statements by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that the committee will continue to aggressively raise interest rates further have only increased pressure on the British pound, which has been experiencing quite a lot of problems lately. Expected high inflation and a looming cost-of-living crisis in the UK does not give traders room to take long positions, as a fairly large range of weak fundamentals is expected ahead, likely to push the pound even further below the levels at which it is currently trading. This week, it is important to pay attention to data on the US labor market, which, among other things, determine the Fed's decision on monetary policy. Continued resilience with low unemployment will lead to higher inflationary pressures going forward, forcing the Fed to further raise interest rates, putting pressure on risky assets, including the British pound. The latest COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions rose 14,699 to 58,783, while short non-commercial positions rose 9,556 to 86,749, leading to a slight rise in the negative non-commercial net position to -27,966 against - 33,109. The weekly closing price fell off from 1.1822 against 1.2096. Indicator signals: Trading is below the 30 and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the pair's succeeding decline. Moving averages Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands In case the pair falls, the lower border of the indicator around 1.1516 will act as support. In case of growth, the upper border of the indicator around 1.1562 will act as resistance. Description of indicators Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart. Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart. MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9 Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20 Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.       Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-03 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320639
The Bears Are In Full Control Of The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Market

The United States And The United Kingdom Are In Different Positions

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 02.09.2022 13:15
Despite being oversold, GBP broke through 1.1530 on Thursday. The currency is likely to remain bearish although it is now retracing up. Meanwhile, USD could strengthen against the basket of major currencies should the jobs market report for August come in strong. Yesterday, GBP/USD fell below 1.1580, briefly touched 1.1499, rebounded, and consolidated at 1.1530. In the upcoming days, the pound is expected to fall below 1.1500 due to being oversold. Support is seen at 1.1460. The price is unlikely to show strong growth. However, should bulls gain control over the market and hit 1.1605, the pound could stabilize for a while. In the long term, GBP/USD is projected to remain bearish as well. A gloomy forecast has recently come from Capital Economics.In the coming months and next year, the pound is likely to hit its lowest level versus the greenback. Meanwhile, the euro is expected to show a modest fall. If the British economy contracts by 1% and inflation is at a record rate, the Bank of England will hardly provide any support, so the pound will probably extend the downtrend. We see GBP down by 5% by the end of 2022, experts at Capital Economics wrote. The current steep drop in the pound is due to the stronger US dollar. Still, there is also an internal factor, the sterling is weaker against other currencies, including the euro, being under pressure from sales. The United States and the United Kingdom are in completely different positions. The UK has already slipped into a recession, while the US has a chance to avoid it. The recent spike in UK wholesale gas prices indicates that the country is now dealing with a deep and prolonged recession. The greenback is also strong due to decreased risk appetite as investors fear a global economic downturn. It is commonly known that the greenback gains and the pound suffers losses during turmoil. The pound is acting more like a risk asset due to a massive current account deficit in the UK. The Bank of England's stance on interest rates is also weighing on the pound. The regulator can't afford to act even more aggressively. So, the pound is likely to lose even more. The Bank of England is planning a 50 basis-point rate hike, but markets hope for a bigger increase. They anticipate the Bank of England to be more decisive that any other central bank due to record inflation in the country. In order to raise interest rates by 180 basis points by the end of the year, the regulator should make at least one 75 basis-point move. However, there have been no signs of such a likelihood so far. In light of the continuing downtrend, the forex market seems to have long realized that the Bank of England will not live up to these expectations. According to Capital Economics, interest rates will be raised at a slower pace than investors hope. Meanwhile, the ECB's and the Fed's actions will satisfy market expectations. GBP/USD is seen falling to the all-time low of 1.0500 by the middle of 2023. EUR/USD could sink as low as 0.9000 by that time, Capital Economics said. Meanwhile, EUR/GBP could reach 1.1700.   Relevance up to 10:00 2022-09-05 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320671
Will The Outlook For The Pound-Dollar (GBP/USD) Currency Pair Be Positive

The GBP/USD Pair Is Currently Bouncing Back?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 05.09.2022 08:50
Early in the European session, the British pound is trading at around 1.1474. It is bouncing after the sharp fall to the low of 23 March at 1.1457. According to the 1-hour chart, we can see that the British pound is trading at around (-1/8 Murray) and below 21 SMA (1.1525). In the chart, we can observe a GAP between the closing price on Friday and the opening price of this week. The British pound is expected to cover this GAP in the next few hours. So, GBP/USD could close at around 1.1510. In case the pound consolidates at around the psychological level of 1.1500, it could reach the 21 SMA located at 1.1525 and could even reach the top of the downtrend channel at around 1.1545. GBP/USD is currently bouncing back after reaching the low of 1.1457. It is likely to continue its rise in the next few hours only if it trades above -1/8 Murray. There is an expectation that the pound can cover the gap and reach 1.1676 (200 EMA). The growing likelihood that the Federal Reserve will continue to tighten its monetary policy makes investors consider the US dollar a safe haven. This is a factor that keeps the GBP/USD pair under strong downward pressure. Investors are pricing in a 0.75% interest rate hike at the next monetary policy meeting in September. This decision will be unveiled on September 21. Analysts expect the sterling to recover part of the losses of last week in the week ahead. The market sentiment report is showing that there are 81.95% of traders who are buying the pair. This is a positive sign for the pound as a technical rebound could occur in the next few hours and then the trading instrument will resume its main downtrend. In case the British pound trades above -1/8 Murray (1.1475) and the 21 SMA located at 1.1525, it could be a positive sign for the pound but we should expect a consolidation above 1.1550. On the other hand, if the British pound resumes its bearish cycle, we could expect a technical bounce around 1.1438 and 1.1417 (weekly support). Our trading plan for the next few hours is to wait for a rebound above 1.1475 to buy with targets at 1.1525 and 1.1676.     Relevance up to 05:00 2022-09-10 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/291327
The GBP/USD Pair Follows The Trend Of The EUR/USD Pair, Could This Change?

The GBP/USD: Can We Expect A Further Decline In The Pair?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 05.09.2022 09:33
GBP/USD 5M The GBP/USD currency pair continued its downward movement on Friday as a whole. In the first half of the day, as well as for the euro, an upward correction was observed, and in the second, the fall resumed. The euro has been trading sideways for more than two weeks, while the pound has continued to fall almost precipitously all this time. At the moment, only 65 points remain to go to 37-year lows, and the quotes do not stop falling even at night. On Friday, as we have already said, there were grounds for a new growth of the US currency. The statistics from overseas may not be the best, but what's the difference if the pound continues to fall anyway? During the last week there were quite few reports, but traders still continued to sell the pair! And on Friday, it turns out that traders also had clear reasons for selling the pound. Thus, the lows for almost four decades will be updated this week, and it is rather difficult to even imagine how low the pound may eventually fall. In regards to Friday's trading signals, everything was as simple as possible, since there were none. Despite the fact that the movements were quite volatile, the price never approached any level or line, so no signals were formed. We have already said that the pound is now so low that there are simply no levels in this price area, and the Ichimoku indicator lines are located much above the price and simply do not keep up with it down. Therefore, over time, levels will appear, but so far they are not. COT report: The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report on the British pound, released yesterday, turned out to be as neutral as possible. During the week, the non-commercial group closed 300 long positions and opened 900 short positions. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders immediately increased by 1,200. The net position indicator has been growing for several months, but the mood of the big players still remains "pronounced bearish", which is clearly seen in the second indicator in the chart above (purple bars below zero = bearish mood). Therefore, the growth of the British pound still cannot count. How can you count on it if the market sells the pound more than it buys? And now its fall has resumed altogether, so the bearish mood of major players in the near future can only intensify. The non-commercial group now has a total of 87,000 shorts and 58,000 longs open. The difference is not as terrifying as it was a few months ago, but it is still noticeable. The net position will have to show growth for a long time to at least equalize these figures. Moreover, COT reports are a reflection of the mood of major players, and their mood is influenced by the "foundation" and geopolitics. If they remain as weak as they are now, then the pound may still be in a "downward peak" for some time. Also remember that it is not only the demand for the pound that matters, but also the demand for the dollar, which seems to remain very strong. Therefore, even if the demand for the British currency grows, if the demand for the dollar grows at a higher rate, then we will not see the strengthening of the pound. We recommend to familiarize yourself with: Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on September 5. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions. GBP/USD 1H The pound/dollar pair maintains a downward trend on the hourly timeframe thanks to the trend line. The British currency continues to fall and may continue for some time, as the market seems to have forgotten that you can not only press the sell button. The market does not need any specific grounds for trading now, and the pound is updating its local lows almost every day. We highlight the following important levels on September 5: 1.1411, 1.1649, 1.1874, 1.1974, 1.2007. Senkou Span B (1.1698) and Kijun-sen (1.1609) lines can also be sources of signals. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthroughs" of these levels and lines. The Stop Loss level is recommended to be set to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. The chart also contains support and resistance levels that can be used to take profits on trades. The index of business activity in the services sector in the second assessment for August will be released on Monday in the UK - far from the most significant report in the current circumstances, when the pound is falling every day. Meanwhile, there is nothing interesting planned for today in the US. There will be nothing for traders to react during the day. Explanations for the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.       Relevance up to 05:00 2022-09-06 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320758
The Tightening Of Monetary Policy Will Continue For Some Time

Signaling Overheated Bear Market And To Sell A Pound.

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 05.09.2022 09:40
Today, markets will take notice of the services PMI data in Europe and the UK although the reports are expected to come in line with the forecast. Meanwhile, the US celebrates a public holiday today. The EU will release the data on retail sales. The indicator may slow down the pace of decline this time. This positive factor may act as support for the European currency. Its positive correlation with the pound sterling may strengthen the latter. After a short-term break, the GBP/USD pair resumed its decline. As a result, the price retested the low of the medium-term trend, missing just a few pips to reach the low of 2020. RSI on H4 and D1 is holding in the oversold zone, signaling the overheated bearish market. The moving averages of the Alligator Indicator on H4 and D1 are pointing down according to the main trend. Outlook: Despite an oversold status of the pound, the downward momentum still persists, and traders seem to ignore the overheated bear market. The low of 2020 at the level of 1.1410 still acts as support for sellers. In this situation, two scenarios are possible: In the first case, the price may rebound from the local low of 2020, thus giving rise to long positions. This, in turn, may slow down the decline of the pair but then a bounce may follow. In the second scenario, traders will simply ignore the technical signals of an oversold status of the pound. If so, consolidation below 1.1400 will extend the long-term downtrend. Comprehensive indicator analysis confirms the downward cycle in all the time periods. So, this is a signal to sell the pound. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320764 Relevance up to 07:00 2022-09-06 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320764
The Recovery Of The GBP/USD Pair May Be Temporary, The Trend Remains Bearish

What To Expect From The GBP/USD Pair In Short Positions And Long Positions?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 05.09.2022 09:50
  Several market entry signals were formed last Friday. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and see what happened. I paid attention to the 1.1562 level in my morning forecast and advised making decisions on entering the market from it. Growth and forming a false breakout at 1.1562 - all this led to a sell signal, which to a large extent was not realized amid the lack of fundamental statistics on the UK. As a result, the movement amounted to about 15 points, after which the demand for the pound returned. A burst of volatility after a rather mixed report on the US labor market led the pound to move down to the 1.1535 area and a false breakout to form at this level. As a result, a buy signal was formed, and the upward movement was about 50 points. When to go long on GBP/USD: Today there are very important reports on activity in the UK services sector, which accounts for a significant part of the economy. A slowdown in this indicator will lead to a further decline in the pound and, most likely, to an update of the 2020 low, to which there is very little left. The deterioration of the economic and political situation in the UK continues to negatively affect the prospects for the pound, the pressure on which is increasing every day. In the event of a decline in GBP/USD after weak data on the PMI in the services sector and the UK composite PMI index, forming a false breakout at 1.1409 - the low of 2020, will lead to the first signal to open long positions in anticipation of a correction in the 1.1476 area. A breakthrough and test from top to bottom of this range may pull stop orders from speculative bears, which creates a buy signal with growth to a further level of 1.1528, where the moving averages play on the bears' side. The farthest target will be the area of 1.1583, where I recommend taking profits. If the GBP/USD falls further and there are no bulls at 1.1409, the pressure on the pair will increase. A breakthrough of this range will lead to the renewal of the next annual low. In this case, I advise you to postpone long positions until the next support at 1.1358, but you can act there only on a false breakout. I recommend opening long positions on GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from 1.1313, or even lower - around 1.1260, counting on correcting 30-35 points within the day. When to go short on GBP/USD: Bears continue to push the pound down, updating daily lows each time, which indicates that they are in control of the market. It is likely that today's statistics for the UK will help them get to the annual lows. Of course, it would not be a good idea to rush to sell on the breakdown of 1.1409. Where better to act, relying on an upward correction. The optimal scenario for opening short positions on GBP/USD would be forming a false breakout at the level of 1.1476, a breakthrough to which may occur in case we receive good results on the PMI index for the UK services sector, which was in a fairly good state back in July. This will make it possible to achieve a new fall and renewal of annual lows around 1.1409. Only a breakthrough and a reverse test of this range will provide a new entry point for selling with a fall to 1.1358, and the area of 1.1313 will be the next target, where I recommend taking profits. In case GBP/USD grows and there are no bears at 1.1476, there will be ghostly chances for an upward correction, and bulls will have an excellent opportunity to return to 1.1528, where the moving averages play on the bears' side. Only a false breakout there will provide an entry point into short positions based on the pair moving down. If there is no activity there, I advise you to sell GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from 1.1583, counting on the pair's rebound down by 30-35 points within the day. COT report: The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for August 23 logged an increase in both short positions and long positions. And although the latter turned out to be a bit more, these changes did not affect the real current picture. Serious pressure on the pair remains, and recent statements by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that the committee will continue to aggressively raise interest rates further have only increased pressure on the British pound, which has been experiencing quite a lot of problems lately. Expected high inflation and a looming cost-of-living crisis in the UK does not give traders room to take long positions, as a fairly large range of weak fundamentals is expected ahead, likely to push the pound even further below the levels at which it is currently trading. This week, it is important to pay attention to data on the US labor market, which, among other things, determine the Fed's decision on monetary policy. Continued resilience with low unemployment will lead to higher inflationary pressures going forward, forcing the Fed to further raise interest rates, putting pressure on risky assets, including the British pound. The latest COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions rose 14,699 to 58,783, while short non-commercial positions rose 9,556 to 86,749, leading to a slight rise in the negative non-commercial net position to -27,966 against - 33,109. The weekly closing price fell off from 1.1822 against 1.2096. Indicator signals: Trading is below the 30 and 50-day moving averages, which indicates further decline in the pair. Moving averages Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands In case the pair falls, the lower border of the indicator around 1.1410 will act as support. In case of growth, the upper border of the indicator around 1.1585 will act as resistance. Description of indicators Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart. Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart. MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9 Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20 Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-06 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320769
The GBP/JPY Pair Is In Downward Trend, The Bank Of Japan Lags Behind Other Major Central Banks

The GBP/USD: Pair Fresh Low And The Bearish Domination

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 05.09.2022 09:59
Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair has made another fresh low at the level of 1.1442 (at the time of writing this analysis) and continues to approach the 3 years low located at 1.1410. This is the covid low made on March 2020 and 2020 low. The nearest horizontal technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1622 and this level is the next target for bulls in a case of a local pull-back. The momentum remains weak and negative on the H4 time frame chart, so the larger time frame trend (daily and weekly) remains down until further notice. Please watch closely the market reaction for the level of 1.1410 breakout or bounce. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.15513 WR2 - 1.15077 WR1 - 1.14791 Weekly Pivot - 1.14641 WS1 - 1.14355 WS2 - 1.14205 WS3 - 1.13769 Trading Outlook: The bearish domination is clear and there is no indication of down trend termination or reversal on the GBP/USD market. The bulls has failed big time to continue the corrective cycle after a big Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made on the weekly time frame, so the downside move accelerated. The next long term target for bears is seen at the level of 1.1410 (2020 low). Please remember: trend is your friend.       Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-06 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/291351
Will The Outlook For The Pound-Dollar (GBP/USD) Currency Pair Be Positive

How The Price Of GBP/USD Pair May Move Today?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 05.09.2022 11:19
Trend analysis (Fig. 1). The pound-dollar pair may move downward from the level of 1.1506 (close of Friday's daily candle) to the target at 1.1442, the support line of the descending channel (thick red line). After testing this level, an upward movement is possible with the target of 1.1565, the 13.6% retracement level (blue dotted line). Upon reaching this level, the price may continue to move up. Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: General conclusion: Today the price may move downward from the level of 1.1506 (close of Friday's daily candle) to the target at 1.1442, the support line of the descending channel (thick red line). After testing this level, an upward movement is possible with the target of 1.1565, the 13.6% retracement level (blue dotted line). Upon reaching this level, the price may continue to move up. Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.1506 (close of Friday's daily candle), the price may move downward with the target of 1.1421, the historical support level (blue dotted line). After testing this level, an upward movement is possible with the target of 1.1565, the 14.6% retracement level (blue dotted line).     Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-06 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320775
The EUR/USD And The GBP/USD: The Most Important Details For Beginners

The EUR/USD And The GBP/USD: The Most Important Details For Beginners

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 05.09.2022 12:38
Details of the economic calendar for September 2 European Union Producer Price Index came out with a significant margin, rising from 36.0% to 37.9%. This news stimulated the euro to rise against the dollar. The main event of the past week was the United States Department of Labor report, which slightly surprised market participants. The unemployment rate was forecast to remain unchanged at 3.5%. However, unemployment in the US rose to 3.7%, which was a catalyst for a local sell-off of the dollar, yet this is a possible signal for the Fed to take some easing measures. There is one important remark in this reflection, the regulator is ready to turn a blind eye to many things in order to overcome rising inflation. Meanwhile, jobs created outside of agriculture came out in line with the consensus forecast, 315,000. The reaction of the US dollar took place within the framework of speculation. In the beginning there was a sale and then a buy-off. Analysis of trading charts from September 2 The EURUSD currency pair ended last week with an intense downward move. As a result, there was an inertial movement in the market for the US dollar, which returned the quote to the level of 0.9900. The GBPUSD currency pair resumed its decline after a short stop. This step led to a subsequent update of the low of the medium-term trend, where only a few points remained to pass before the bottom of 2020. Economic calendar for September 5 The new trading week starts with a holiday in the United States. The key player of the financial market will return on Tuesday. Trading volumes may decline at first. As for statistical data, the publication of the final indicators on the index of business activity in the services sector in Europe and the UK is expected. If the data coincide with the preliminary assessment of the reaction in the market, it is not worth waiting. At the same time, Eurozone retail sales data is to be published. Its rate of decline may slow down, which is a positive signal for the euro. Time targeting: USA - Labor Day (holiday) EU Services PMI – 08:00 UTC UK Services PMI – 08:30 UTC EU Retail sales volume – 09:00 UTC Trading plan for EUR/USD on September 5 With the opening of the European session, a local level of 0.9900 appeared. The sale of the euro was associated with a sharp jump in gas prices in Europe. At the opening of trading, prices jumped by 30%, to $2,800 per thousand cubic meters. The reason for the increase in the cost of gas lies in the message of Gazprom on Friday evening that the maintenance of the only working turbine of SP-1 revealed "gross violations" and the gas pipeline will not work without their elimination. In order to confirm the signal about the prolongation of the long-term downward trend for the euro, the quote must be kept below the level of 0.9900 steadily in the daily period. In this case, a path will open in the direction of 0.9850–0.9500. Otherwise, the amplitude 0.9900/1.0150 has every chance for further formation. Trading plan for GBP/USD on September 5 Despite the growing oversold level of the pound sterling, the market remains an inertial course, where speculators ignore the overheating of short positions in vain. The low of 2020 (1.1410) may play as support on the sellers' path. In this situation, traders will consider two possible options for price development: The first scenario comes from a rebound from the 2020 local low area. In this case, an increase in the volume of long positions is possible, which at the beginning will slow down the downward cycle, after which a rebound will occur. The second scenario considers the lack of reaction of traders to technical signals about the oversold pound and the support level. In this case, holding the price below 1.1400 in the daily period will lead to a prolongation of the long-term trend. What is shown in the trading charts? A candlestick chart view is graphical rectangles of white and black light, with sticks on top and bottom. When analyzing each candle in detail, you will see its characteristics of a relative period: the opening price, closing price, and maximum and minimum prices. Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a stop or a price reversal may occur. These levels are called support and resistance in the market. Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price of the story unfolded. This color selection indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the quote in the future. The up/down arrows are the reference points of the possible price direction in the future.       Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-06 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320791
The EUR/USD Pair: There Is Nothing New In This Market, It Is Not Bullish Yet

Bears Dominate The Euro To The US Dollar And The British Pound To US Dollar The Market

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 05.09.2022 13:19
EUR/USD Higher timeframes Bears dominate the market at the opening of today's trading, updating the low of 0.9901. In the case of consolidation and restoration of the downward trend, the reference points for the decline can be considered the levels of 0.9000 (psychological level) and 0.8225 (minimum extremum of 2000). If the bears cannot hold below 0.9901 and return to the consolidation zone, then after gaining the boundaries of 0.9984 (daily short-term trend) and 1.0000 (psychological level), we can expect that bulls will try to go beyond the existing zone uncertainty and develop a full-fledged corrective movement. The targets of the further rise will be the elimination of the daily death cross (1.0066 - 1.0124 - 1.0181) and gaining support from the weekly short-term trend (1.0124). H4 – H1 Bears also hold the advantage on the lower timeframes as the market is currently operating below key levels. By now, the S2 support (0.9886) has been tested, the reference point is the S3 support (0.9830). Key levels today join forces in the area of 0.9993–77 (central pivot point + weekly long-term trend). Consolidation above will change the current balance of power, returning the advantage to the bulls. Upward targets within the day are now at 1.0012 - 1.0068 - 1.0103. *** GBP/USD Higher timeframes Bears started the new working week with a new low (1.1495) and a decline into the zone of attraction and influence of the historical support at 1.1411. The formed result of interaction with the level of 1.1411 will most likely determine the prospects for further developments in the current situation. H4 – H1 In the lower timeframes, the advantage is on the side of the bears. Two of the three supports of the classic pivot points (1.1471 – 1.1437) have been tested, leaving S3 (1.1378) in reserve for a decline. The nearest reference point for the current upward correction is the central pivot point (1.1530), then the intermediate resistance can be noted at 1.1564 (R1), but the key value belongs to the resistance of the weekly long-term trend (1.1607). *** In the technical analysis of the situation, the following are used: higher timeframes – Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) + Fibo Kijun levels H1 - Pivot Points (classic) + Moving Average 120 (weekly long-term trend)   Relevance up to 11:00 2022-09-06 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320814
The Bears Are In Full Control Of The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Market

Not Surprising That Investors Want To Get Rid Of British Assets

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 05.09.2022 12:43
How quickly time passes! It would seem that investors have recently discussed the idea of parity between the euro and the US dollar. In early autumn, a new parity with the US currency is on the agenda. This time we are talking about the pound. The event is of great importance because, unlike EURUSD, the GBPUSD pair has never fallen below 1 in its 200-year history. It was only in 1985 that it was close to it, but the agreement in Plaza Accord reversed the processes taking place at that time on Forex. What will happen this time? Britain is the most telling example of a developed nation whose economy has slipped into stagflation. Consumer price growth is already measured in double digits, and according to the shocking forecasts of Goldman Sachs, it will reach 22% in 2023. In this scenario, the bank expects to see a 3.4% subsidence of the UK's GDP. Andrew Bailey and his colleagues also talk about a long recession for five quarters in a row. How could it be otherwise if the share of household energy expenditures increases from 12% of disposable income in 2021 to 41% in 2023. Against this background, it is not surprising that investors want to get rid of British assets as soon as possible. Bond sales are proceeding at an accelerated pace, and the rise in yields should theoretically become a crucial growth driver for sterling, especially in conditions of increasing expectations for the repo rate, which, according to the futures market, will jump to 3.25%, if not at the end of this year, then at the beginning of next year. Dynamics of GBPUSD and British bond yields Alas, the profitability growing by leaps and bounds does not help the pound. The reason for this is the increase in the double deficit—the current account and the budget, which does not allow the GBPUSD bulls to raise their heads. Indeed, the first indicator rose to a record 8.3% of GDP already in the first quarter against the backdrop of an increase in the cost of imports, primarily due to fuel. But in those days, gas prices were not so high. It's only the beginning. The intention of Liz Truss, the main favorite for the post of British Prime Minister, to reduce taxes is causing fear due to the widening budget deficit. Grandiose plans need to be funded by something. Most likely, London will be forced to issue more bonds, and problems with financial stability add a headache to the GBPUSD bulls. Truss could take a tougher stance on the Northern Ireland Protocol to the Brexit deal than her predecessor, raising the risk of a trade war with the EU. Not surprisingly, Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon calls her victory in the struggle for the status of leader of the Conservative Party a disaster for the UK. No matter how the risks of a new referendum on the independence of this country grow. Technically, on the daily chart, GBPUSD quotes approached the previously designated target by 161.8% according to the AB=CD pattern by arm's length. It corresponds to the mark 1.14. As long as the pair is trading below the pivot point 1.158, we continue to adhere to the strategy of selling it on pullbacks.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-10 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320785
What Trend Is Forecast For The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Pair

The Pound To The US Sollar Pair Maintains A Downward Trend

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 06.09.2022 08:44
GBP/USD 5M The GBP/USD currency pair, simply and calmly, almost with an empty macroeconomic and fundamental background, updated its 2-year lows on Monday. An upward pullback followed in the afternoon, but it does not allow us to assume anything more than a pullback. The price continues to be below the descending trendline, so the downward trend continues. And it can persist for a long time, because the price is far from the trend line. A report on business activity in the service sector was just released in the UK, which did not interest the market at all due to the second assessment of this indicator. Recall that the first estimate is published first, which can impress traders, but the second rarely differs from the first. There was nothing else interesting on Monday, but even in such conditions the pound managed to approach its 37-year lows. We believe that these lows can be updated as early as this week. In regards to Monday's trading signals, everything was prosaic, since not a single one was formed. As we have already said, the pound is now so low that there are simply no levels to trade here. Of course, levels will appear over time, but so far there are none, and the Ichimoku indicator lines are located much higher than the price. In fact, now traders have only the level of 1.1411 at their disposal, to which the price is striving. COT reports: The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report on the British pound, released yesterday, turned out to be as neutral as possible. During the week, the non-commercial group closed 300 long positions and opened 900 short positions. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders immediately increased by 1,200. The net position indicator has been growing for several months, but the mood of the big players still remains "pronounced bearish", which is clearly seen in the second indicator in the chart above (purple bars below zero = bearish mood). Therefore, the growth of the British pound still cannot count. How can you count on it if the market sells the pound more than it buys? And now its fall has resumed altogether, so the bearish mood of major players in the near future can only intensify. The non-commercial group now has a total of 87,000 shorts and 58,000 longs open. The difference is not as terrifying as it was a few months ago, but it is still noticeable. The net position will have to show growth for a long time to at least equalize these figures. Moreover, COT reports are a reflection of the mood of major players, and their mood is influenced by the "foundation" and geopolitics. If they remain as weak as they are now, then the pound may still be in a "downward peak" for some time. Also remember that it is not only the demand for the pound that matters, but also the demand for the dollar, which seems to remain very strong. Therefore, even if the demand for the British currency grows, if the demand for the dollar grows at a higher rate, then we will not see the strengthening of the pound. We recommend to familiarize yourself with: Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 6. The ECB meeting is the key event of the week. Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 6. An almost empty week for the pound. What can stop it from falling against the dollar? Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on September 6. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions. GBP/USD 1H The pound/dollar pair maintains a downward trend on the hourly timeframe thanks to the trend line. The British currency continues to fall and may continue for some time, as the market seems to have forgotten that you can not only sell, but also buy. But why buy if there is a strong downward trend? The market does not need any specific grounds for trading now, and the pound is updating its local lows almost every day. We highlight the following important levels for September 6: 1.1411, 1.1649, 1.1874. Senkou Span B (1.1698) and Kijun-sen (1.1601) lines can also be sources of signals. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthrough" of these levels and lines. The Stop Loss level is recommended to be set to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. The chart also contains support and resistance levels that can be used to take profits on trades. On Tuesday, the UK will release the index of business activity in the construction sector in the second assessment for August, which is unlikely to be of interest to market participants. The US today will publish quite an important index of business activity in the services sector ISM. If its actual value differs from the forecast value (55-55.5), then the market reaction may follow. Explanations for the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.     Relevance up to 02:00 2022-09-07 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320867
Will The Outlook For The Pound-Dollar (GBP/USD) Currency Pair Be Positive

GBP/USD: The Next Currency Pair With Fresh Low Today

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 06.09.2022 09:13
Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair has made another fresh low at the level of 1.1442 and continues to approach the 3 years low located at 1.1410 - the covid low made on March 2020. Currently, the bulls had managed to bounce 1.30% towards the nearest horizontal technical resistance seen at the level of 1.1622 and this level is the next target for bulls in a case of a local pull-back. The momentum is neutral on the H4 time frame chart, so the larger time frame trend (daily and weekly) remains down until further notice. Please watch closely the market reaction for the level of 1.1410 breakout or bounce. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.15513 WR2 - 1.15077 WR1 - 1.14791 Weekly Pivot - 1.14641 WS1 - 1.14355 WS2 - 1.14205 WS3 - 1.13769 Trading Outlook: The bearish domination is clear and there is no indication of down trend termination or reversal on the GBP/USD market. The bulls has failed big time to continue the corrective cycle after a big Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made on the weekly time frame, so the downside move accelerated. The next long term target for bears is seen at the level of 1.1410 (2020 low). Please remember: trend is your friend.   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-07 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/291526
The Bears Are In Full Control Of The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Market

The Pound To The US Dollar: A Chance For Bears To Further Pull Down The Pair

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 06.09.2022 09:38
Several market entry signals were formed yesterday, but not all of them were profitable. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened. I paid attention to the 1.1476 level in my morning forecast and advised making decisions on entering the market from it. Growth and the forming a false breakout at 1.1476 there - all this led to a sell signal, which was not realized to the proper extent. A few more times the bears tried to keep the pair below this level, but in the end they accepted defeat, which led to the removal of stop orders and consolidating losses. A new signal to buy the pound was formed only in the afternoon, after a reverse test of 1.1487 from top to bottom, which eventually brought about 25 points of profit, which made it possible to cover past losses and earn some money. COT report: Before analyzing the technical picture of the pound, let's look at what happened in the futures market. An increase in short positions was recorded in the Commitment of Traders (COT) report for August 30, while long ones decreased. This once again confirms the fact that the British pound is in a major downward peak. Serious pressure on the pair will continue in the future, as the British economy is getting worse and worse, and GDP is shrinking quite quickly. The choice of a new prime minister of Great Britain will only provide temporary support to the pound, since, in fact, it does not change anything. In turn, the US economy continues to show strength, and recent data on the labor market once again convinced investors that the US central bank, led by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, will continue to raise interest rates at an aggressive pace, which will only increase pressure on the British pound, which is experiencing quite a lot of problems lately. Expected high inflation and a looming cost-of-living crisis in the UK does not give traders room to take long positions, as a fairly large range of weak fundamentals is expected ahead, likely to push the pound even further below the levels at which it is currently trading. The latest COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions decreased by 306 to 58,477, while short non-commercial positions rose by 898 to 86,647, which led to a slight increase in the negative value of the non-commercial net position to -29,170 vs. -27,966. The weekly closing price collapsed from 1.1661 against 1.1822. When to go long on GBP/USD: Today we have almost no data on the UK, except for the report on the index of business activity in the construction sector from IHS Markit, which is unlikely to seriously affect the pound's volatility in the short term. Much will depend on the disposition of traders to risky assets after the announcement of the new prime minister of Great Britain, which became Foreign Minister Lisa Truss. In the near future, the reforms proposed by her may determine the further direction of the pair, since nothing good can be expected from the Bank of England. The defeat of Finance Minister Rishi Sunak speaks for itself. In case GBP/USD falls in the first half of the day after the reaction to the negative data on the UK, which is quite likely, the best scenario for buying will be a false breakout in the area of the nearest support at 1.1545, formed on the basis of yesterday. There are also moving averages, playing on the bulls' side. This will lead to a bounce up and a push to the 1.1613 area. We can only talk about the prerequisites for building a new upward correction for the pair after getting above this range. A breakdown of 1.1613, as well as a reverse downward test will open the way to 1.1685. A more distant target will be the area of 1.1754, where I recommend taking profits. If the GBP/USD falls and there are no bulls at 1.1545, the pressure on the pound will increase again, which will force the bulls to leave the market again, as the risk of further development of the bearish trend will become more real. If this happens, I recommend postponing long positions to 1.1494. I advise you to buy there only on a false breakout. You can open long positions on GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from 1.1446, or in the area of the low of 2020 at 1.1402, counting on correcting 30-35 points within the day. When to go short on GBP/USD: Protecting the nearest resistance at 1.1613 is almost the most important task for today. Strong fundamental reports will help. In case the pair rises, forming a false breakout at 1.1613 will return pressure on the pound and form a sell signal in order to develop a further bearish trend and decline to the nearest support at 1.1545. This event will also keep the pair in a short-term horizontal channel with a lower boundary near the annual low, which will limit the pair's upward potential. A breakthrough and reverse test from the bottom up at 1.1545 will provide an entry point for short positions with a fall to a low of 1.1494. A more distant target will be the area of 1.1446, where I recommend taking profits. In case GBP/USD grows and the bears are not active at 1.1613, the situation will completely get out of the bears' control, and bulls will have an excellent chance of returning to 1.1685. Only a false breakout around 1.1685 creates an entry point into short positions, counting on a new downward movement of the pair. If traders are not active there, there may be a surge up to a high of 1.1754. There, I advise you to sell GBP/USD immediately for a rebound, based on a rebound of the pair down by 30-35 points within the day. Indicator signals: Trading is carried out above 30 and 50 moving averages, which leaves a chance for bears to further pull down the pair. Moving averages Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands A breakthrough of the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.1480 will increase pressure on the pair. If the pair grows, the upper border of the indicator around 1.1610 will act as resistance. Description of indicators Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart. Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart. MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9 Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20 Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-07 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320891
GBP/USD Pair: A Reversal Signal Will Be The Price Consolidating

Australian Dollar (AUD) And British Pound (GBP) Are Diversified Considering The Vulnerability To Monetary Policies. Energy: Liz Truss' Plan

ING Economics ING Economics 06.09.2022 09:47
Relative equity performance is becoming a bigger driver of FX moves, and the energy crisis in Europe does suggest EUR assets will struggle to regain the market's confidence. Elsewhere, the RBA 50bp hike is no game-changer for AUD, while the pound will keep being driven by new UK prime minister Liz Truss' policy proposals ahead of next week's BoE meeting The pound is being driven by new prime minister Liz Truss' political agenda   We have just published our monthly update of FX views and forecasts: “FX Talking: This is going to hurt” USD: Equity divergence matters US markets re-open after a long weekend today and futures currently point at a slightly positive open in the Dow Jones, despite yesterday’s slump in European equities. Diverging US-European equity performance is becoming a relevant theme for FX as a driver of USD strength: in our EUR/USD short-term fair value model, the relative equity performance factor has seen its beta grow steadily since the start of July. Indeed, the ongoing energy crisis does suggest that it will take time to restore trust in European assets. In the past three months, the Dow and S&P500 are both down -5%, while the DAX has lost 13% and Euro Stoxx 9%. Expect a pick-up in volatility today after yesterday’s rather muted trading. On the data side, markets will focus on the US ISM Service index, which is expected to have dropped after July’s modest rebound. This is probably the most important piece of data before the CPI report on 13 September, and with markets still torn about the possibility of a 75bp Fed hike in two weeks (65bp is priced in), asset classes should prove quite sensitive to the release. There are no scheduled Fed speakers today, but we’ll hear from a plethora of members tomorrow and from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday. Barring a major dovish repricing in Fed rate expectations, the strong dollar story should remain broadly untouched this week, as the energy supply crisis keeps markets away from most European currencies and may fuel safe-haven flows further. As we’ve highlighted in recent notes, the yen’s role as a safe haven has been eroded by Japan’s worsening trade position, and the USD/JPY rally may have further to go until Japanese authorities intervene. Elsewhere in the APAC region, AUD had a relatively contained reaction to the RBA’s 50bp rate hike. As highlighted in our meeting review, a switch to 25bp rate increases now looks possible given the high frequency of RBA meetings, although that may be read as a dovish signal by markets and force some dovish repricing along the AUD curve. This, however, is far from being the biggest concern for AUD, which is set to remain heavily impacted by a challenging external environment. We don’t expect any AUD/USD recovery to go much further than 0.70 before the end of the year. Francesco Pesole EUR: Shrinking undervaluation Germany’s decision to keep two power plants open over the winter is a clear signal that the country had not managed to secure enough energy reserves before last week’s Nord Stream shutdown. Talks among EU members this week are set to be quite crucial, as a bloc-wide cap on energy prices, a windfall tax on energy companies’ profits, and potential intra-EU emergency gas flows are set to be discussed. The energy crisis is set to keep EUR/USD capped for now, despite the short-term swap rate differential having continued to widen in favour of the euro and is at the highest in six months. In our short-term fair value model, the growing relevance of equity dynamics (which have moved against the euro) in determining EUR/USD swings now mean that the undervaluation has shrunk from the 5.5% peak two weeks ago to around 3.5% now despite the pair having fallen to 20-year lows. The 0.9900 support appears to be a rather fragile one and was briefly broken yesterday, we could see 0.9850 or 0.9800 as the next key levels, although the worsening macro picture in Europe means that a further drop to the 0.9600-0.9650 supports cannot be excluded. Francesco Pesole GBP: Truss announces massive plan to fix energy bills The pound rallied this morning on the back of some reports that the new UK Prime Minister Liz Truss has drafted a £130bn plan to fix energy bills. The news appears to partially ease the market’s concerns (that have weighed on GBP) that Truss’ promised tax cuts would ultimately worsen the inflation picture. The pound is set to face further volatility in the coming days as Truss’ policy plans are outlined in greater detail and the Bank of England meeting (15 September) draws nearer. If tax cuts would likely argue in favour of larger BoE tightening, caps on energy bills might both reduce the risk of recession and trim inflation expectations: it will be interesting to see how the BoE addresses these policies. Yesterday, we heard some hawkish comments by MPC member Caroline Mann, and markets are closing in on pricing a 75bp move next week. However, it looks like Truss’ political agenda is what is driving the pound at the moment, and BoE tightening expectations are playing a secondary role. EUR/GBP is testing the 0.8600 support and may keep retreating on the back of encouraging news on the policy side. Francesco Pesole CEE: FX follows gas prices Today, we will see the traditional data set of industrial production, construction and foreign trade in the Czech Republic. The main topic is of course automotive production, which is holding back the whole sector. Leading indicators suggest that the situation did not improve in July either and we should see a further slowdown. The markets are dealing with the new gas price hike and so far it seems that yesterday's jump has been fully reflected in FX across the region, resulting in the expected weakness. However, risks remain and the gas story will be the main focus today. We still believe that further upward movement in gas prices will mainly hit the Hungarian forint, which has been copying the gas price in recent days with an almost perfect correlation. However, we also believe that the EU money theme should return to the headlines in mid-September, which should unlock the hidden potential of the forint. Although the initial reaction from the European Commission may not be 100% positive, our baseline assumes an agreement is found and the RRF money is released. On the other hand, the situation is escalating in Poland, where the government is likely to raise this issue and the upcoming elections may trigger an open conflict with the EU, which in turn spoils the prospects for the Polish zloty which should stay around 4.75 EUR/PLN in the rest of the year. Frantisek Taborsky Read this article on THINK TagsSterling FX daily Dollar CEE region Bank of England Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
The Euro (EUR) Is In A Stable Channel And The Pound (GBP) Has Little Chance Of Falling

Massive Collapse In Both Pairs The EUR/USD And The GBP/USD

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 06.09.2022 10:04
Although a lot of macroeconomic statistics were released yesterday, markets were unaffected as players focused more on Gazprom's decision to cut off gas supplies to Europe. According to the official statement, there was a breakdown, so there is a need for additional repairs. This threatens Europe with shutdowns of enterprises and massive power outages. Unsurprisingly, the incident caused a massive collapse in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD. The situation only stabilized after the release of retail sales data on Europe, which declined by -0.9%. For future price movements, much will depend both on the statements of officials and the press service of Gazprom. Nevertheless, euro has little chance of increasing, and there is certainly no hopes of rising above parity. On the contrary, some statements may even contribute to another decline below 0.99, followed by a rebound. Retail sales (Europe): EUR/USD failed to break through the lower boundary of the range 0.9900/1.0050. As a result, there was an increase in the volume of long positions, which led to a rebound in prices. It can be assumed that, despite the prevailing downward sentiment among speculators, the market is still developing within the base of the medium-term trend. The best action to this is to work a rebound or breakdown relative to the given boundaries. In case of a breakdown, wait for a strong signal in the daily (D1) timeframe. GBP/USD continued to fall and came close to the 2020 low, where a local reduction in the volume of short positions occurred, which eventually led to a rollback. To prolong the main trend, it is necessary to keep the price below 1.1410 in the four-hour timeframe.     Relevance up to 19:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320883
The Major Currency Pairs On The Forex Market And Their Move Ahead Of Important Decisions

The Gas Price Is Recovering And The Euro And British Pound Are Strengthening

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 06.09.2022 11:48
Details of the economic calendar for September 5 Data on indices of business activity in the services sector in Europe and the UK were published, which came out worse than expected. Details of statistical indicators: Eurozone services PMI fell from 51.2 to 49.8 points against the expectation of 50.2 points. The composite index fell from 49.9 to 48.2 points. The euro was already heavily oversold at the time of the release of the data, so it was difficult to fall further. UK services PMI fell from 52.6 to 50.9 points, with forecast of a decline to 52.5 points. The composite index fell from 52.1 to 49.6 points. The pound sterling, like the euro, was oversold; there was no reaction to the statistics. Data on retail sales in the euro area were also published: its rate of decline slowed down from -3.2% to -0.9% YoY. Despite the fact that the data came out worse than expected (-0.7%), the euro ignored them. The reason for the lack of response to statistical indicators arose due to the commodity market. Yesterday, with the opening of trading, there was a sharp increase in the cost of gas in Europe, which jumped by 30% to $2,800 per thousand cubic meters. The reason for the increase in the cost of gas lies in the message of Gazprom on Friday evening that the maintenance of the only working turbine of SP-1 revealed "gross violations" and the gas pipeline will not work without their elimination. Speculators worked out this information flow in the form of a sell-off of the euro, where, through a positive correlation, it followed the euro and the pound sterling. As soon as the price of gas began to recover relative to the morning jump, the euro began to strengthen, followed by the pound. Analysis of trading charts from September 5 The EURUSD currency pair opened a new trading week with an intensive decline, during which the quote temporarily fell below 0.9900. The speculators failed to stay outside the control value, which resulted in a technical pullback. The GBPUSD currency pair, through a positive correlation with EURUSD, first rushed down, almost reaching the 2020 low, and then moved into the pullback stage. Economic calendar for September 6 The United States is coming off a three-day holiday today, and service sector PMI data will be released. In the UK, data on the index of business activity in the construction sector will be released, where they predict its decline. Not the best signal for the pound sterling, but it is worth considering that it is already oversold in the market. Time targeting: UK Construction PMI (Aug) – 08:30 UTC US Services PMI (Aug) – 13:45 UTC Trading plan for EUR/USD on September 6 Despite the speculative activity, the quote is still within the range of 0.9900/1.0050. Thus, traders are guided by the borders of the flat, working according to the method of breakdown or rebound from the given values. Trading plan for GBP/USD on September 6 With the pound losing more than 800 pips in value in three weeks, a pullback/correction was brewing in the market due to short overheating. In this situation, holding the price above 1.1620 will lead to the subsequent strengthening of the pound towards 1.1750. As for the prolongation of the downward trend, it is necessary to keep the price below the value of 1.1400 in the daily period. What is shown in the trading charts? A candlestick chart view is graphical rectangles of white and black light, with sticks on top and bottom. When analyzing each candle in detail, you will see its characteristics of a relative period: the opening price, closing price, and maximum and minimum prices. Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a stop or a price reversal may occur. These levels are called support and resistance in the market. Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price of the story unfolded. This color selection indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the quote in the future. The up/down arrows are the reference points of the possible price direction in the future.     Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-07 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320915
Will The Outlook For The Pound-Dollar (GBP/USD) Currency Pair Be Positive

The GBP/USD Pair: The Price May Move Upward Or Move Downward?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 06.09.2022 12:11
Trend analysis (Fig. 1). The pound-dollar pair may move upward from the level of 1.1513 (close of yesterday's daily candle) to 1.1565, the 14.6% retracement level (blue dotted line). When testing this level, a continued upward movement is possible to 1.1643, the 23.6% retracement level (blue dotted line). From this level, a downward pullback is possible. Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: General conclusion: Today the price may move upward from 1.1513 (close of yesterday's daily candle) to 1.1565, the 14.6% retracement level (blue dotted line). When testing this level, a continued upward movement is possible to 1.1643, the 23.6% retracement level (blue dotted line). From this level, a downward pullback is possible. Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.1513 (close of yesterday's daily candle), the price may move upward to 1.1608, the 8-period EMA (thin blue line). When testing this level, a downward movement is possible to 1.1560, the 261.8% Fibonacci retracement level (red dotted line). Upon reaching this level, the price may resume moving upward with the target of 1.1643, the 23.6% retracement level (blue dotted line).       Relevance up to 10:00 2022-09-07 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320929
The GBP/JPY Pair Is In Downward Trend, The Bank Of Japan Lags Behind Other Major Central Banks

How Transactions In The GBP/USD Pair Look In Short And Long Position Today?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 06.09.2022 13:15
Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair Pound tested 1.1484 when the MACD line was far from zero, which limited the upside potential of the pair. Sometime later, there was a test of the level again, but the MACD line was still at the area it was before so there was no large movement. No other signals appeared for the rest of the day. Pound did not move much yesterday despite the weak reports on the services and composite PMI in the UK. The reason was the manipulation of large players, which happened due to low volatility amid the holiday in the US. Today, a number of reports are scheduled to be published, such as the index of business activity in the UK construction sector. If the figure turn out to be better than expected, a slight increase in GBP/USD will be seen. In the afternoon, data on business activity in the services sector and PMI for the US will be released, which will hit the positions of dollar and may lead to a rise in risk appetite, provided that the numbers are lower than the forecasts. For this reason, expect further growth and upward correction in the pair. For long positions: Buy pound when the quote reaches 1.1597 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1657 (thicker green line on the chart). Growth will occur if activity in the construction sector exceeds expectations. Take note that when buying, the MACD line should be above zero or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.1559, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1597 and 1.1657. For short positions: Sell pound when the quote reaches 1.1559 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1515. Pressure will increase if the attempt to consolidate at daily highs fails. Take note that when selling, the MACD line should be below zero or is starting to move down from it. Pound can also be sold at 1.1597, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1559 and 1.1515. What's on the chart: The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the GBP/USD pair. The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level. The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the GBP/USD pair. The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level. MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones. Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.       Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-07 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320904
Oil Is An Indicator Of The Health Of The Global Economy

Liz Truss As The New Party Leader. OPEC+ And Production Cut

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 06.09.2022 09:50
Summary:  While the US markets were closed overnight for Labor Day, the futures this morning in Asia are indicating some respite after weeks of red. The US dollar was also softer in early Asian hours, while the focus remains on the European energy crisis and the EU emergency meeting scheduled for Friday. A token cut by OPEC+ and diminishing hope of a revival of the Iran nuclear deal supported oil prices, although China’s tightening restrictions continue to pose demand concerns. Sterling made a sharp recovery after new UK PM Liz Truss announced plans to freeze energy bills, easing some short-term concerns. Consensus expects another 50 basis points rate hike from Reserve Bank of Australia today, and US ISM services will be on the radar later. What is happening in markets? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I)  U.S. stock markets were closed for Labor Day. U.S. treasuries (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) The treasury market was closed for Labor Day. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIU2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH.I) plunged 1.9% as a Bloomberg story, citing people familiar with the matter, said that the Biden administration is considering imposing restrictions on US investments in Chinese technology companies, Bilibili (09626:xhkg) -3.2%, JD.COM (09618:xhkg) -3.0%, Tencent (00700:xhkg) -2.9%, Alibaba (09988:xhkg) -2.4%. Hang Seng Index fell 1.2%. Chengdu, the largest city in western China, extended its pandemic control lockdown for another three days. The spread of Covid-19 cases and pandemic control measures fueled risk-off sentiment in the market.  Over the weekend, the U.S. Trade Representative said that it received requests from more than 350 American companies to plead for keeping the “Section 301” tariff on goods imported from China, and the Biden administration will remain in place during the review. BYD (01211:xhkg) fell 5.9%, as exchange filing showed that Berkshire Hathaway continued to off-load its stake in BYD.  Other car makers lost as well, Geely (00175) -7%, NIO -6,9, Li Auto 02.3(August).  Thermal coal prices surged in China, following the news that Russia’s Gazprom suspended the supply of natural gas to Germany on the Nord Stream pipeline.  Share prices of coal miners gained, Yancoal Australia (03668:xhkg) +6.6%, Yankuan (01171:xhkg) +12.2%, China Coal (01898:xhkg) +8.3%.  Caixin China Services PMI came in at 55.0, edging down slightly from 55.5 in July but above market expectations. CSI300 spent the day in range-bound trading.  GBPUSD falls to fresh lows, EUR in focus this week The USD lost some ground early in Asia on Tuesday with GBPUSD making the most gains to rise towards 1.1600 as the appointment of new Prime Minister and her plan to freeze energy bills spelled some short-term relief. EURUSD saw a brief drop to 20-year lows below 0.99 yesterday but rose back to 0.9960+ levels in early Asian trading. EURGBP seen sliding slower to 0.8600 but downside may be limited if ECB decides to go for a 75bps rate hike today. But the energy situation and the EU summit on Friday certainly garners more attention with some tough decision ahead. USDJPY retreated from Friday’s 24-year highs of 140.80 to 140.30-levels with Japan’s household spending underperforming expectations at 3.4% y/y vs. expectations of 4.6% y/y. Wage pressures, which remain a key focus for Bank of Japan, also eased with labor cash earnings up 1.8% y/y from last month’s 2.0% y/y. Crude oil prices (CLU2 & LCOV2) Crude oil prices rose on Monday as OPEC+ announced an output cut of 100k bpd in October (more details below). The intention appears to be to keep Brent prices capped at $100/barrels. WTI futures rose to $89/barrel while Brent was above $95/barrel. Price action was also supported by a diminishing hope of a revival of the Iran nuclear deal. US and Iranian positions have diverged in recent days, and it is now expected that the negotiations could stretch beyond the US midterm elections in November. Still, it is key to watch the demand concerns picking up as well, particularly as China lockdowns were extended and will likely remain strict ahead of the CCP meeting on October 16. What to consider? OPEC+ announced a production cut by 100k bpd A token cut by OPEC+ last night of 100k barrels per day just reverses the output increase agreed to last month. The decision was ‘symbolic’, with the new quotas taking effect for October. The amount is significantly small compared to a 100 million bpd market but it shows that OPEC+ wants to set a floor near $100/barrel in Brent. Saudi Arabian oil minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman had warned last week that a cut was a possibility given what he said was a disconnect between financial and physical oil markets. The RBA meets today, and is expected to raise rates to 2.35% regardless of the property market struggling Consensus expects the RBA to hike rates by 0.5% which will take Australia’s official interest rate to 2.35%. That will be the highest rate since 2015. However, interest rates futures are pricing in a smaller hike, of just 0.4%. The RBA will likely then proceed to rise rates over the rest of 2022 and then continue to rise rates into the 2023, in a bid to stave off inflation. The issue is, the RBA only has one tool to fight inflation, which is rising rates. But the property market is already struggling to absorb the 1.75% in hikes from May, with property prices falling at their quickest pace since the 80s and construction seeing its biggest decline since 2016. This has seen banks margins (profits) be squeezed, and they face a further squeeze. Why? Australia has one of the highest debt levels in the world (Debt to GPD is 126%). So if the RBA keeps rising rates to slow inflation, it could cause a credit issue and debt to income levels are at risk of hitting GFC highs. RBA outcomes for investors, traders and the macro landscape We highlighted sectors to watch and why yesterday in the Saxo Spotlight. That's worth a quick read. Today, we will be watching what the RBA estimates inflation to be, at the end of the year, remembering the RBA previously said it expects inflation to peak at under 8%. But consider, we traditionally see peak energy (coal) demand later this year, which is likely to support coal prices higher. As such, we think the RBA will rise its inflation target and may allude to commentary about keeping rates higher. For investors and traders, we will be watching energy stocks, which will likely get extra bids today and see momentum rise (not only because of the energy crisis in Europe), but also because Australian energy prices (coal) remains supported, with Australian energy reserves expected to also run out next year. For traders, the currency pair that we are watching is the AUDEUR for an extension to the upside, on the basis that Europe will need to increase energy imports and its balance of trade will likely continue to worsen, vs the Australian balance of trade, likely to hit another record high, with Australian LNG and coal exports to see a lift in demand.    PBOC cuts FX deposit reserve requirement ratio by 200 bps to restrain yuan weakness The PBoC announced that the central bank is cutting the reserve requirement ratio for foreign exchange deposits (the “FX RRR”) to 6% from 8%, effective September 15.  The cut is expected to release about USD19 billion (2% of the USD954 billion FX deposits outstanding) in FX liquidity for banks to make loans in foreign currencies.   The PBoC last cut the FX RRR to 8% from 9% on May 15, in an attempt to send a signal to the market to put a pause to the depreciation of the USDCNY which had weakened from 6.40 to 6.80 in one month (April 15 to May 13, 2022).  After the surge of the USDCNY from 6.75 to above 6.90 in about half a month since Aug 15, the PBoC apparently wants to send a signal again to the market to slow the speed of the renminbi depreciation against the U.S. dollar. Liz Truss won the contest to become the next UK Prime Minister In the UK, the Conservative party has voted for Liz Truss as the new party leader, making her the UK’s next Prime Minister. Her promises range from quick action on energy security to alleviating the cost-of-living crisis for the hardest hit by price rises, all while cutting corporate and other taxes. She has announced a GBP 130bn plan to freeze energy bills, a recipe for ballooning fiscal deficits, an issue that is already an ingredient in sterling’s steep fall this year, so an even steeper recession is in the wings. This could come either from a drop in real GDP due to soaring inflation aggravated by further sterling declines or as demand is crushed by a steep recession due to the need for the Bank of England to accelerate its pace of rate hikes or more likely a combination of the two. Longer term, investments in fracking shale gas and new North Sea exploration could pay dividends. Russia makes a clear case of weaponizing gas supplies While the Kremlin had earlier said that they were halting gas supplies on Nord Stream 1 for a technical fault, it has now clearly said that gas supplies to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline will not resume in full until the “collective west” lifts sanctions against Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine. Russia is still supplying gas to Europe via Soviet-era pipelines through Ukraine that have remained open despite the invasion, as well as the South Stream pipeline via Turkey. But supplies along the northern pipeline routes, including Nord Stream 1 and the pipelines through Ukraine, have fallen by more than 90% since September last year. Higher supplies from Norway, the UK, north Africa and increased imports of LNG have helped to an extent offset the loss of Russian supplies. Energy summit in EU on Friday EU leaders will meet this Friday to discuss a cap on energy prices across EU countries to limit the disruptions from soaring and illiquid pricing markets, although given limits on generation capacity, much of them due to Russia’s cutting off of gas supplies - possibly semi-permanently in the case of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline – some sort of rationing plan may be required. See our colleague Christopher Dembik’s piece on at the difficult choices Europe faces on this issue here. US ISM services PMI due today With the services sector of the US economy slowing, there are expectations of a slight retreat in August US ISM services, but it should still remain above the 50-mark which differentiates between expansion and contraction. The S&P services PMI for August had also shown a slight decline to 44.1, with the payroll data hinting at still-strong labor market conditions in the services economy.   For a week-ahead look at markets – tune into our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/apac-daily-digest-6-sept-2022-06092022
Bulls Again Pushed The US Dollar To Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Pair

Geopolitical Situations And Macroeconomic Data Can Strongly Affect The Forex Market This Week

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 06.09.2022 15:14
Summary:  The JPY is tumbling again even as yields trade relatively sideways and as the grinding disparity widens between the Bank of Japan’s yield caps and rising front-end policy rates and rate expectations elsewhere, most notably in Europe, where the ECB nonetheless needs to hike 100 basis points if it really wants to impress markets this Thursday. In the background, the US dollar is a bit sideways, while sterling has launched a relief rally on the arrival of Liz Truss as new UK Prime Minister. FX Trading focus: Market challenges BoJ again. ECB has to hike 100 to impress. A new runaway move lower in the JPY is the focus today even as yields at the longer end of the yield curve remain relatively anchored after a modest correction late last week. The focus may simply be on the widening divergence between policy rates ratcheting higher everywhere else while the Bank of Japan maintains that it will not budge any time soon. Some thoughts on EURJPY below, while USDJPY has cleared 141.00 and has not traded this high since a brief episode of a few months in 1998 during the Asian financial crisis. The Bank of Japan YCC policy is under duress and the pressure will ratchet that much higher if the US 10-year yield. Already with this latest move we should expect some stiffening verbal intervention that inevitably won’t last long. EURUSD teased back towards parity for whatever reason this morning, perhaps in hopes that the European energy cap plan will prove a boost, perhaps on hopes that the ECB is set to surprise to the upside at Thursday’s ECB meeting. It’s a long shot according to the odds, which strongly favour a 75 basis point move over a 50 basis point move, but if the ECB wants to play some real catchup and help stabilize the euro currency, it should hike rates 100 basis points and indicate a willingness to do so again. It is not helpful for Europe that the Kremlin has now explicitly made it clear that the failure to restart deliveries of gas through the Nord Stream I pipeline are a weaponization of gas flows aimed at EU sanctions. Everyone is becoming a natural gas expert now, with the gist that the EU can survive the winter with no Russian gas as long as demand drops around 20% and there are no further disruptions of other non-Russian supplies. The situation would have been far better had not French nuclear woes and a massive drought impacted hydroelectric production not created the perfect storm this winter for power prices. Chart: EURJPYEURJPY is an interesting to watch in addition to USDJPY as the pair has traded back to new highs despite Europe’s dire energy situation (to a significant degree, Japan is also beset with high energy costs, given its reliance on important LNG and oil). But the ECB policy rate anticipated through the December ECB meeting is some 70 basis points higher than it was in mid-August, while the Bank of Japan carries on its yield-curve control policy, helping to pump this cross back higher. Next key test is over the ECB meeting on Thursday and then whether US data this week and through Monday’s August CPI data point excites a further rise in US treasury yields.   Freshly minted UK Prime Minister Truss used her first day in office to launch a £130 billion package to cap energy bills at their current level in order to avoid the cost-of-living crisis for many had bills risen as scheduled to nearly double the current levels next month. The cost estimate is spread over 18 months and represents some 5% of UK GDP now, (likely considerably less next year, given the runaway nominal growth in the UK economy at present). Sterling has seen a solid relief rally on hopes for Trussonomics, which will include tax cuts and a possible threat to Bank of England independence. Longer term efforts to increase investment in new energy sources could pay long term dividends, but the UK and its currency can ill-afford aggravating already yawning deficits in the near term, and further Bank of England rate hikes will aggravate risks to growth/real estate while piling onto the stark mathematics of future deficits and sovereign cost-of-debt-service calculations. Still, it is a riveting effort to watch as Truss and her strong Conservative majority can show more dynamism and force in policy making than we are going to get in the near to medium term from the US or Europe. Australia’s RBA hiked 50 basis points as almost universally expected and claimed in its statement that it is on “no preset course”. The front-end of the Australian yield curve hardly budged on the news after some intraday volatility as the market expects higher odds that the RBA downshifts at tone of the coming two meetings to a 25-bp hike. RBA Governor Lowe is set to speak on Thursday, an event that could provide a stronger bias than the neutrality we saw last night. Note fairly strong new highs in USDCNH today above the cycle high and within reach of the psychological 7.00 level now (7.20 area nearly touched in 2019 and 2020 the cycle focus and the CNY hasn’t shown much independence of movement in the crosses.) Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.Sterling trying to make a comeback in momentum terms, but is only about halfway to notable resistance in the key EURGBP and GBPUSD pairs. Elsewhere, not the recent CNH downside momentum and Aussie following suit to a degree, while the JPY takes the crown for most negatively trending currency in our universe. Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.The AUDNZD upside attempt is faltering – is it set to flip negative? Elsewhere, note GBPJPY and SEKJPY trying to set the direction back higher, a sign of the broadening downside pressure on the JPY. Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights 1345 – US Aug. S&P Global Services PMI 1400 – US Aug. ISM Services 2105 – New Zealand RBNZ’s Silk to speak 0130 – Australia Q2 GDP     Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/forex/fx-update-market-challenges-boj-ecb-set-to-hike-100-bps-06092022  
Gas Skyrocketed! BP Stock Price Increased! Liz Truss Has A Lot Of Challenges Ahead

Gas Skyrocketed! BP Stock Price Increased! Liz Truss Has A Lot Of Challenges Ahead

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 06.09.2022 15:34
The European natural gas futures jumped 30% yesterday, the euro fell further against a broadly stronger US dollar, and crude oil climbed above the $90pb mark, as OPEC decided to cut production by 100’000 barrels per day, to the August levels, as they wanted to ‘stabilize’ oil prices after the longest price decline since the beginning of the pandemic. For now, the barrel of US crude couldn’t clear the $90 resistance, as the US-Iran nuclear deal is still a possibility to boost supply, and no one really knows what could happen in the complex politics of the oil market. Also, the recession worries weigh on the demand outlook. The New PM Of United Kingdom - Liz Truss In the UK, Liz Truss won the PM race. Cable first fell to a fresh low, on the back of a broadly stronger US dollar, but the pair rebounded. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its policy rate by 50bp as expected today. China boosted stimulus.  The US is back from Labor Day holiday. US futures are in the positive, but winds could rapidly change direction. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:30 Crude oil gains after OPEC cuts output, but gains remain limited 2:21 France joins Germany and UK in backing windfall taxes on energy companies 3:56 Pound digests Liz Truss victory 6:32 RBA lifts rates by 50bp, as China boosts stimulus 7:31 Is Chinese property crisis a risk for global financial markets? 9:44 What to watch today? Ipek Ozkardeskaya   Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #OPEC #Europe #energy #crisis #crude #oil #USD #EUR #GBP #inflation #UK #PM #election #Liz #Truss #RBA #AUD #rate #hike #China #stimulus #property #crisis #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH
GBP/USD Pair: A Reversal Signal Will Be The Price Consolidating

The GBP/USD Pair Is Under Strong Downward Pressure And Continues To Decline

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 07.09.2022 09:08
Early in the European session, the British pound is trading at around 1.1461. GBP/USD is under strong downward pressure. It is likely that if the pair continues to decline, a technical bounce could occur around the bottom of the downtrend channel at 1.1385. The British pound is trading below the 21 SMA and below -1/8 Murray. As long as it continues to trade within the downtrend channel, GBP/USD is expected to continue its decline and could reach the extremely oversold zone around -2/8 Murray at 1.1230. One factor that keeps the pound weak is that investors are concerned about a possible recession in the UK economy. According to the daily chart, the GBP/USD pair is entering oversold levels. So, a technical bounce is likely in the coming hours if the pound manages to consolidate above -1/8 Murray located at 1.1474. On the other hand, a sharp break of the downtrend channel formed since the beginning of August could offer a sustained recovery for the pound and it could even reach the 0/8 Murray area at 1.1718 and could even reach the 200 EMA located at 1.1862. Conversely, should the pound break the downtrend channel at around 1.1385, it could accelerate its decline below towards the zone of -2/8 Murray at 1.1230. Our trading plan for the next few hours for GBP/USD is to wait for its consolidation at around 1.1384 to buy or wait for it to consolidate above 1.1474 (-1/8 Murray) and above the 21 SMA around 1.1526 to buy. Above these levels, we expect the British pound to reach the levels of 1.1605 and 1.1718.       Relevance up to 06:00 2022-09-12 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/291710
The Recovery Of The GBP/USD Pair May Be Temporary, The Trend Remains Bearish

The Growth Of The British Pound Still Can Not Count

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 07.09.2022 09:15
GBP/USD 5M The GBP/USD currency pair resumed its downward movement on Tuesday. So far, the matter has not come to a new update of 2-year lows, but the price still remains in close proximity to them and from its 37-year lows. Since corrections must happen from time to time, we believe that this is exactly what has been observed in the last few days. The descending trend line eloquently indicates that the downward trend continues, so we have the right to expect a new fall in the British pound. However, the pound clearly does not need strong fundamental and macroeconomic reasons to continue to depreciate against the US currency. There were no important events on Tuesday, except for the ISM business activity index in the US. This report was published quite late, so the main drop was not related to it. No more interesting events in the UK this week. In regards to trading signals, things were poor, but effective. The price bounced off the critical line twice during the European trading session, forming two sell signals. After the first pair went down a little more than 30 points, after the second - 95. Since the nearest target level from below was located very far, it was not necessary to count on its development. This means that the second deal should have been closed manually in the late afternoon. It was possible to earn at least 60 points on it. The first short position was closed by Stop Loss at breakeven. COT report: The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report on the British pound, released yesterday, turned out to be as neutral as possible. During the week, the non-commercial group closed 300 long positions and opened 900 short positions. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders immediately increased by 1,200. The net position indicator has been growing for several months, but the mood of the big players still remains "pronounced bearish", which is clearly seen in the second indicator in the chart above (purple bars below zero = bearish mood). Therefore, the growth of the British pound still cannot count. How can you count on it if the market sells the pound more than it buys? And now its fall has resumed altogether, so the bearish mood of major players in the near future can only intensify. The non-commercial group now has a total of 87,000 shorts and 58,000 longs open. The difference is not as terrifying as it was a few months ago, but it is still noticeable. The net position will have to show growth for a long time to at least equalize these figures. Moreover, COT reports are a reflection of the mood of major players, and their mood is influenced by the "foundation" and geopolitics. If they remain as weak as they are now, then the pound may still be in a "downward peak" for some time. Also remember that it is not only the demand for the pound that matters, but also the demand for the dollar, which seems to remain very strong. Therefore, even if the demand for the British currency grows, if the demand for the dollar grows at a higher rate, then we will not see the strengthening of the pound. We recommend to familiarize yourself with: Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 7. Energy crisis in the European Union. Is everything so bad? Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 7. Liz Truss is the new British prime minister. What does this mean for the pound? Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on September 7. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions. GBP/USD 1H The pound/dollar pair maintains a downward trend on the hourly timeframe. The British currency continues to fall in the medium term and so far there is no reason to believe that the pound's decline will end in the near future. If the euro has at least an ECB meeting that can support it this week, then the pound has nothing. We highlight the following important levels on September 7: 1.1411-1.1442, 1.1649, 1.1874. The Senkou Span B (1.1698) and Kijun-sen (1.1546) lines can also be sources of signals. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthroughs" of these levels and lines. The Stop Loss level is recommended to be set to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. The chart also contains support and resistance levels that can be used to take profits on trades. There are no major events scheduled for Wednesday in the UK and the US. Thus, the pair will have nothing to react to during the day, but now it does not need any events to move actively and in a trend. Explanations for the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.   Relevance up to 02:00 2022-09-08 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320991
The Bears Are In Full Control Of The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Market

The US Economy Continues To Show Strength, British Pound Will Testing The 2020 Low?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 07.09.2022 09:30
Several market entry signals were formed yesterday. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and see what happened. I paid attention to the 1.1613 level in my morning forecast and advised making decisions on entering the market from it. Before forming a false breakout at 1.1613, just a couple of points were missing. I was unable to enter the market for this reason. A similar situation occurred with the level of 1.1545, where I expected the pair to reverse and more active growth. Unfortunately, even before the test of this range, about 3-4 points were not enough, so I did not manage to buy the pound. The pressure on the pair returned in the afternoon after strong ISM reports, which led to a test and a false breakout in the 1.1497 area, where I advised buying the pound. As a result, the upward rebound amounted to more than 50 points. The bears managed to protect the resistance at 1.1549 closer to the middle of the US session, which led to a signal to sell further along the trend. As a result, the pound fell another 30 points. When to go long on GBP/USD: Today is quite an important day for the British pound, as there will be parliamentary hearings on the report of the Bank of England on monetary policy, as well as a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. It is clear that the central bank will have to further increase the pace of interest rate hikes, which will further complicate the situation in an economy that is struggling with an energy crisis, which translates into a crisis in the cost of living for the British. This can only increase the pressure on the pound, leading to new annual lows. In case GBP/USD falls and a negative reaction to Bailey's statements, forming a false breakout at 1.1459 will give the first signal to open long positions in anticipation of a correction to the 1.1509 area. A breakthrough and a downward test of this range may pull stop orders from speculative bears, which forms a buy signal with an increase to a more distant level of 1.1559, just below which the moving averages play on the bears' side. The farthest target will be the area of 1.1607, which we failed to cling to yesterday. I recommend taking profit there. If the GBP/USD falls further and there are no bulls at 1.1453, which is more likely, the pressure on the pair will increase. A breakthrough of this range will lead to the renewal of the next annual low. In this case, I advise you to postpone long positions until the next support at 1.1409 - a low of 2020, but you can act there only on a false breakout. I recommend opening long positions on GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from 1.1358, or even lower - around 1.1313, counting on correcting 30-35 points within the day. When to go short on GBP/USD: Having coped with a rather important task of protecting the 16th figure, bears continued to pull down the pound and achieved a return to annual lows. It is likely that Bailey's speech today will have a bad effect on the pound, as statements about raising interest rates during the economy sliding into recession will clearly discourage traders from buying the pound again. Of course, it is best to act based on an upward correction. The optimal scenario for opening short positions on GBP/USD would be forming a false breakout at the level of 1.1509, a breakthrough to which may occur during Bailey's speech. This will make it possible to achieve a new sell signal and a return to the area of 1.1453. Only a breakthrough and reverse test of this range would provide a new entry point for short positions with a fall towards the 2020 low at 1.1408. A more distant target will be the area of 1.1358, where I recommend taking profits. In case GBP/USD grows and the bears are not active at 1.1509, there will be a chance for an upward correction, and bulls will have the opportunity to return to 1.1559, where the moving averages play on the bears' side. Only a false breakout there will provide an entry point into short positions, counting on a new fall in the pair. If there is no activity there, I advise you to sell GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from 1.1607, counting on the pair's rebound down by 30-35 points within the day. COT report: An increase in short positions was logged in the Commitment of Traders (COT) report for August 30, while long ones decreased. This once again confirms the fact that the British pound is in a major downward peak. Serious pressure on the pair will continue in the future, as the British economy is getting worse and worse, and GDP is shrinking quite quickly. The choice of a new prime minister of Great Britain will only provide temporary support to the pound, since, in fact, it does not change anything. In turn, the US economy continues to show strength, and recent data on the labor market once again convinced investors that the US central bank, led by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, will continue to raise interest rates at an aggressive pace, which will only increase pressure on the British pound, which is experiencing quite a lot of problems lately. Expected high inflation and a looming cost-of-living crisis in the UK does not give traders room to take long positions, as a fairly large range of weak fundamentals is expected ahead, likely to push the pound even further below the levels at which it is currently trading. The latest COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions decreased by 306 to 58,477, while short non-commercial positions rose by 898 to 86,647, which led to a slight increase in the negative value of the non-commercial net position to -29,170 vs. -27,966. The weekly closing price collapsed from 1.1661 against 1.1822. Indicator signals: Trading is below the 30 and 50-day moving averages, which indicates further decline in the pair. Moving averages Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands In case the pair goes down, the lower border of the indicator around 1.1453 will act as support. In case of growth, the upper border of the indicator around 1.1559 will act as resistance. Description of indicators Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart. Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart. MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9 Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20 Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.     Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-08 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321019
The GBP/JPY Pair Is In Downward Trend, The Bank Of Japan Lags Behind Other Major Central Banks

The GBP/USD Pair: Next Currency Pair Is Keeping The Downward Trend

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 07.09.2022 11:04
Trend analysis (Fig. 1). The pound-dollar pair may move downward from the level of 1.1516 (close of yesterday's daily candle) to the lower fractal 1.1432 (blue dotted line). When testing this level, an upward movement is possible to 1.1566, the 14.6% retracement level (blue dotted line). In the case of testing this level, the price may continue to move upward with the target of 1.1643, the 23.6% retracement level (blue dotted line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: General conclusion: Today the price may move downward from the level of 1.1516 (close of yesterday's daily candle) to the lower fractal 1.1432 (blue dotted line). When testing this level, an upward movement is possible to 1.1566, the 14.6% retracement level (blue dotted line). In the case of testing this level, the price may continue to move upward with the target of 1.1643, the 23.6% retracement level (blue dotted line). Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.1516 (close of yesterday's daily candle), the price may move downward to 1.1421, the historical support level (blue dotted line). In the case of testing this level, an upward movement is possible with the target of 1.1566, the 14.6% retracement level (blue dotted line).       Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-08 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321015
The Major Currency Pairs On The Forex Market And Their Move Ahead Of Important Decisions

The Energy Crisis In Europe Puts Pressure On The Markets

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 07.09.2022 11:36
Details of the economic calendar for September 6 The further aggravation of the energy crisis in Europe puts pressure on the markets, which does not allow the euro to move into the stage of a full correction. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said yesterday that the energy crisis will last for several more years. This statement caused the euro to accelerate its decline. Meanwhile, UK's construction Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was published, which rose to 49.2 instead of the expected decrease from 48.9 to 48.0. However, the market ignored the statistics. During the American trading session, the US services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was published, which fell more than expected from 47.3 to 43.7. Again, there was no reaction to the statistical data. Analysis of trading charts from September 6 The EURUSD currency pair is stubbornly trying to prolong the downward trend, as indicated by a number of attempts by traders to stay below the 0.9900 level in the daily period. There is no clear signal of prolongation for the Tuesday period. The GBPUSD currency pair, after a short pullback, again rushed down towards the local low of 2020 (1.1410). This move indicates the continuing downside mood among traders in the market. It is worth noting that the pound sterling has a positive correlation with the euro. Thus, we observe identical cycles in the market. Economic calendar for September 7 Today, the publication of the third estimate of Eurozone GDP is expected, where there will be no reaction in the market if the data coincides with the previous two estimates. If there is a discrepancy in the statistical data, then a speculative activity may appear depending on the indicators. Time targeting: EU GDP – 09:00 UTC Trading plan for EUR/USD on September 7 Market participants still expect the price to hold below 0.9900 in the daily period. This move will indicate the possibility of further weakening of the euro towards 0.9500. It is worth considering that a variable level of 0.9850 stands in the way of the downward cycle. Thus, a confirming signal about the downward move will be received after its breakdown. The upward scenario considers the absence of holding the price beyond the control values. In this case, another rebound is possible, with the price returning above the parity level. Trading plan for GBP/USD on September 7 In order for a signal to prolong the long-term downward trend to appear, the quote needs to be firmly held below 1.1400 in the daily period. In the opposite case, it is impossible to exclude the scenario of a price rebound from the 2020 low area with a subsequent amplitude of 1.1450/1.1600. What is shown in the trading charts? A candlestick chart view is graphical rectangles of white and black light, with sticks on top and bottom. When analyzing each candle in detail, you will see its characteristics of a relative period: the opening price, closing price, and maximum and minimum prices. Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a stop or a price reversal may occur. These levels are called support and resistance in the market. Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price of the story unfolded. This color selection indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the quote in the future. The up/down arrows are the reference points of the possible price direction in the future.   Relevance up to 10:00 2022-09-08 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321035
A Strong Bearish Signal For The Equity Markets And A Significant Support Factor For Dollar (USD)

The EUR/USD Pair Is Trading Like In The Early 2000s. The ECB Meeting May Push The GBP/USD Pair?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 07.09.2022 12:17
Dollar continues to rise, thanks to higher yields of Treasuries ahead of the Fed's monetary policy meeting this September. Clearly, markets are driven by expectations of further rate hikes by world central banks, with the Fed having the full leadership. Most likely, it would implement a 0.75% increase, along with the ECB despite the start of recession in Europe. At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading near the historical low of the early 2000s. It is logical to buy as soon as the price decreases; however, there are a lot of reasons that are holding back traders from such actions. One example is the situation of the eurozone economy, which is very deplorable amid the conflict in Ukraine. Crisis is already brewing, and there is a chance that full-scale unrest will start soon. But euro could rise a bit if the ECB raises rates by 0.75%. Then, it will move sideways ahead of the Fed meeting, nervously reacting to the decisions of the ECB and incoming economic data, as well as outlook for monetary policy. After the Fed meeting, euro will fall, which strengthens the idea to sell the pair rather than buy. Forecasts for today: EUR/USD The pair is consolidating slightly above 0.9900. There is a possibility of a rebound to 0.9975, but trading will most likely be conducted sideways. GBP/USD The pair is trading above 1.1450. Incoming economic statistics, as well as the ECB meeting, may push it to 1.1590.       Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-09 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321029
In Times Of Looming Energy Crisis Bank Of England And UK In General Have A Complicated Way Ahead

In Times Of Looming Energy Crisis Bank Of England And UK In General Have A Complicated Way Ahead

Jing Ren Jing Ren 07.09.2022 14:18
In general terms, the economic policy of the UK under the new government is expected to remain very similar. For example, the new Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng might have had differences in public image with former chancellor Sunak, but in practice, agrees on most major issues. In fact, the argument between them was mostly along the lines of who was most in favor of the policies. That having been said, a change of the occupant of No. 10 is an opportunity to do a bit of a course correction. After all, the prior PM was quite unpopular, and the point of a changing leadership is to find a new direction. So, some changes are to be expected, particularly on the front that could be seen as garnering popular support. But, the question for traders is: How does this affect the markets? The most notable is in respect to dealing with the energy crisis, which took on increasing new dimensions over the summer. That was when Johnson was still in a caretaker role, and therefore wouldn't be announcing any major new policy. Though we should remember that the UK already had an energy emergency a year ago, with petrol stations running out of fuel in some places. While largely fueled by consumer panic, there was an underlying logistics issue. Now, there is a different problem. The new PM is proposing a program to spend as much as £200B in order to keep down energy prices for consumers and businesses. That amounts to a little over 7.4% of the UK's nominal GDP for last year (and could be even higher if the BOE's projections of a recession comes true). With multi-decade high inflation, increased spending (or, at least, the monetary expansion to support it) might have quite a few economists rather worried. In particular, some traders have been speculating that cable could fall down to parity, like the Euro already has. What about the nuts and bolts? Of course there have been other measures announced, such as rescinding the raise in National Insurance. However, since a little over a third of the UK's energy needs come from overseas, that is the issue most likely to impact forex markets. While in general, increasing spending based on debt tends to lead to higher inflation, exactly how the mechanism is implemented could have different kinds of effects. And, so far, the details have not been forthcoming, though more information is expected tomorrow. Getting a handle on the implications So far, the promise has been to cap household energy bills. There are a wide range of mechanisms to achieve that, and they all have different inflation implications. The basic issue is that capping energy prices would allow UK households to have more disposable income, at a time that the BOE is trying to tamp down demand with higher rates. It might mean the BOE takes a stronger position starting at the next meeting to head off inflation. If the price cap mechanism is achieved through some sort of direct subsidy to energy bills, that would imply higher domestic spending by the government. Which would increase inflationary pressure. However, if the price cap was more similar to Spain's, where the government would subsidize input costs for generators, then the inflationary effect might be less. However, if the BOE takes a stronger stance in raising rates, a stronger pound might additionally help offset the cost of energy and lower inflation. Another reason that BOE policy might look more like the US' than Europe's in the near term.
The EUR/USD Pair: There Is Nothing New In This Market, It Is Not Bullish Yet

What Is Happening In The Euro To The US Dollar Pair

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 08.09.2022 08:51
EUR/USD 5M The EUR/USD pair was once again trading near its 20-year lows on Wednesday. It seems that now everything depends on the US, the dollar and American traders, because even the trades for the umpteenth time in the US session are much more active than in the European one. It was in the second half of the day that the euro, unexpectedly for many, turned up and began an impressive growth. It was not triggered by any fundamental or macroeconomic event, because the only important event is the EU GDP report in the third estimate for the second quarter, which was published this morning. Nevertheless, such growth was to be expected, as we talked about in our last articles. The fact is that the euro is already very low and should correct at least a little from time to time. Such corrections are quite difficult to predict, since they are usually not associated with any events. Plus, today the European Central Bank will announce the results of the meeting, among which there will be a 0.5-0.75% rate hike with almost 100% probability, which, you see, is a hawkish decision. Thus, the euro really had reasons to grow yesterday. But everything was very unfortunate in regards to the trading signals due to the flat at the European trading session. For the umpteenth time, we are faced with a situation where, in general, the movement is not bad, but due to the small number of levels or due to strange movements, it is not possible to earn money. Four trading signals were formed near the level of 0.9900, three of which turned out to be false. Traders could work out only the first two and get a small loss on the first trade, since the price there did not move even 15 points in the right direction. Stop Loss was triggered at breakeven on the second long position. COT report: The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports on the euro in the last few months clearly reflect what is happening in the euro/dollar pair. For most of 2022, they showed an openly bullish mood of commercial players, but at the same time, the euro fell steadily at the same time. At this time, the situation is different, but it is NOT in favor of the euro. If earlier the mood was bullish, and the euro was falling, now the mood is bearish and... the euro is also falling. Therefore, for the time being, we do not see any grounds for the euro's growth, because the vast majority of factors remain against it. During the reporting week, the number of long positions for the non-commercial group decreased by 8,500, and the number of shorts decreased by 5,000. Accordingly, the net position decreased by about 3,500 contracts. This is not much, but this is again an increase in the bearish mood among the major players. After several weeks of weak growth, the decline in this indicator resumed. From our point of view, this fact very eloquently indicates that at this time even commercial traders still do not believe in the euro. The number of longs is lower than the number of shorts for non-commercial traders by 47,000. Therefore, we can state that not only does the demand for the US dollar remain high, but that the demand for the euro is also quite low. The fact that major players are in no hurry to buy the euro may lead to a new, even greater fall. The euro has not been able to show even a tangible correction over the past six months or a year, not to mention something more. We recommend to familiarize yourself with: Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 8. The market is beginning to shift its focus away from geopolitics and fundamentals to other factors. Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 8. Andrew Bailey pulled down the pound again. Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on September 8. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions. EUR/USD 1H The pair continues to trade on the hourly timeframe in a mode very similar to the "swing". The price has not dropped much in the last few days, so the lower border of the horizontal channel has simply shifted to the level of 0.9877. And now we have the 0.9877-1.0072 channel. The channel is almost 200 points wide, but the price is stubbornly trading inside it. We highlight the following levels for trading on Thursday - 0.9877, 1.0019, 1.0072, 1.0124, 1.0195, 1.0269, as well as Senkou Span B (0.9996) and Kijun-sen (0 .9947). There is still no level below 0.9877, so there is simply nothing to trade there. Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also secondary support and resistance levels, but no signals are formed near them. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthrough" extreme levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price has gone in the right direction for 15 points. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. The ECB will announce the results of its meeting on September 8, and then for the first time in a long time, ECB President Christine Lagarde will make a speech. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is speaking in the US today. Looks like we're in for a very interesting day... Explanations for the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.     Relevance up to 06:00 2022-09-09 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321116
What Trend Is Forecast For The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Pair

What Kind Of Mood Is The GBP/USD Pair Today?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 08.09.2022 08:58
GBP/USD 5M The GBP/USD currency pair traditionally resumed its downward movement on Wednesday and this time reached the level of 1.1411 and even went below it by a few points. Thus, it can be officially declared that the lows for 37 years have been updated! In principle, we have repeatedly said that this will happen. Now we expect that this level will be overcome, and the pound will set more than one anti-record in 2022. Immediately after the update of the lows, a rather strong upward movement began, which is very difficult to link with macroeconomics or the foundation. If in the case of the euro it can be assumed that the growth is associated with today's European Central Bank meeting and a very likely increase in rates by 0.75%, then in the case of the pound, the growth could only be technical. After all, the pound has also been falling for a very long time and very strongly - corrections should occur from time to time. However, the euro and pound went up almost identically and at the same time, which leads us to assume the technical status of this correction. If so, then both major pairs may resume falling in the coming days. There is absolutely nothing to take note of regarding the previous day's important events. In regards to trading signals, the pound's situation was better than the euro's. In fact, only one signal to buy was formed in the area of 1.1411-1.1442. This area could also be considered as two separate levels, but when a signal was formed inside it, the price immediately turned out to be near another level, so it was better to consider them together. Thus, when the price settled above 1.1442, it was possible to open long positions. Subsequently, the pound rose almost to the critical line, but the deal should have been closed earlier, manually in the late afternoon. Profit amounted to about 50 points. COT report The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report on the British pound turned out to be as neutral as possible. During the week, the non-commercial group closed 300 long positions and opened 900 short positions. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders immediately increased by 1,200. The net position indicator has been growing for several months, but the mood of the big players still remains "pronounced bearish", which is clearly seen in the second indicator in the chart above (purple bars below zero = bearish mood). Therefore, the growth of the British pound still cannot count. How can you count on it if the market sells the pound more than it buys? And now its fall has resumed altogether, so the bearish mood of major players in the near future can only intensify. The non-commercial group now has a total of 87,000 shorts and 58,000 longs open. The difference is not as terrifying as it was a few months ago, but it is still noticeable. The net position will have to show growth for a long time to at least equalize these figures. Moreover, COT reports are a reflection of the mood of major players, and their mood is influenced by the "foundation" and geopolitics. If they remain as weak as they are now, then the pound may still be in a "downward peak" for some time. Also remember that it is not only the demand for the pound that matters, but also the demand for the dollar, which seems to remain very strong. Therefore, even if the demand for the British currency grows, if the demand for the dollar grows at a higher rate, then we will not see the strengthening of the pound. We recommend to familiarize yourself with: Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 8. The market is beginning to shift its focus away from geopolitics and fundamentals to other factors. Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 8. Andrew Bailey pulled down the pound again. Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on September 8. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions. GBP/USD 1H The pound/dollar pair maintains a downward trend on the hourly timeframe. Despite the rather strong growth from the previous day, the hourly timeframe clearly shows that the price has only moved away from its 37-year lows by 130 points. We highlight the following important levels on September 8: 1.1411-1.1442, 1.1649, 1.1874. Senkou Span B (1.1698) and Kijun-sen (1.1504) lines can also be sources of signals. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthroughs" of these levels and lines. The Stop Loss level is recommended to be set to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. The chart also contains support and resistance levels that can be used to take profits on trades. There are no major events scheduled for Thursday in the UK, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, whom we haven't heard from in a while, will speak in the US. However, the market now clearly does not need important events and reports to trade actively. The downward trend continues, so after the completion of the current correction, the quotes will most likely resume falling without Powell's help. Explanations for the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.     Relevance up to 06:00 2022-09-09 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321118
What Trend Is Forecast For The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Pair

The Bearish Domination Is Clear In The GBP/USD Market

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 08.09.2022 09:12
Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair has hit the level of 1.1410 which is the 7 years low for this pair and the Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made at the H4 time frame chart. The momentum is negative again on the H4 time frame chart, so the larger time frame trend (daily and weekly) remains down until further notice. Please watch closely the further market reaction for the level of 1.1410, because a shallow 100 pips bounce does not terminate the down trend. The bulls need at least to test the level of 1.1717 in order to make a corrective cycle to the upside more probable. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.15513 WR2 - 1.15077 WR1 - 1.14791 Weekly Pivot - 1.14641 WS1 - 1.14355 WS2 - 1.14205 WS3 - 1.13769 Trading Outlook: The bearish domination is clear and there is no indication of down trend termination or reversal on the GBP/USD market. The bulls has failed big time to continue the corrective cycle after a big Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made on the weekly time frame, so the downside move accelerated. The next long term target for bears is seen at the level of 1.1410 (2020 low). Please remember: trend is your friend.       Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-09 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/291895
Will The Outlook For The Pound-Dollar (GBP/USD) Currency Pair Be Positive

GBP/USD Pair: What Can Traders Expect In Short And Long Positions?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 08.09.2022 10:01
Several market entry signals were formed yesterday. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and see what happened. I paid attention to the 1.1509 level in my morning forecast and advised making decisions on entering the market from it. As a result of the pair's growth at the beginning of the European session, a false breakout was formed at the level of 1.1509, which led to a good signal to sell the pound further along the trend. All this resulted in a decline of more than 100 points. The bulls regained the initiative in the afternoon and managed to climb the resistance at 1.1465. A reverse test of this level from the top down provided an excellent buy signal, which led to another 55-point rally for the pound. Selling at 1.1520 brought only about 20 points of profit. When to go long on GBP/USD: Today there is nothing interesting from fundamental statistics, therefore, for sure, traders will focus their attention on data on the eurozone and will monitor the reaction and attitude of investors towards risky assets after the increase in interest rates by the European Central Bank, which will partially affect the British pound. A strong rise in the euro may lead to a breakthrough of the nearest resistance at 1.1538 in the GBP/USD pair and to the continuation of an upward correction. In case GBP/USD falls in the first half of the day, forming a false breakout in the area of 1.1471, slightly above which the moving averages pass, will provide the first signal to open long positions in order to recover to the Asian high of 1.1538. A breakthrough and a downward test of this range may pull stop orders from speculative bears, which creates a buy signal with growth to a more distant level of 1.1607. The farthest target will be the area of 1.1685, where I recommend taking profits. In case the GBP/USD falls further and there are no bulls at 1.1471, the pair will be under pressure again. In this case, I advise you to postpone long positions until the next support at 1.1406 - this year's low, but you can act there only on a false breakout. I recommend opening long positions on GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from 1.1358, or even lower - around 1.1313, counting on correcting 30-35 points within the day. When to go short on GBP/USD: Yesterday, the bears reached the lows of 2020, from where, quite expectedly, there should have been a rebound to the upside, which I have repeatedly paid attention to in my reviews. Today, much depends on the level of 1.1538. Therefore, I advise you to focus on it in the morning. The optimal scenario for opening short positions on GBP/USD would be forming a false breakout at 1.1538, a breakthrough to which may occur at the beginning of the European session. This will make it possible to achieve a sell signal with the goal of returning to the 1.1471 area - an intermediate support level formed yesterday afternoon. Only a breakthrough and test of this range would provide a new entry point for short positions with a fall to this year's low at 1.1406. A more distant target will be the area of 1.1358, where I recommend taking profits. In case GBP/USD grows and the bears are not active at 1.1538, there will be chances for a continuation of the upward correction, and bulls will have the opportunity to return to the 16th figure. Only a false breakout there will provide an entry point into short positions with the goal of a new decline from the pair. If traders are not active there, I advise you to sell GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from 1.1685, counting on the pair's rebound down by 30-35 points within the day. COT report: An increase in short positions was logged in the Commitment of Traders (COT) report for August 30, while long ones decreased. This once again confirms the fact that the British pound is in a major downward peak. Serious pressure on the pair will continue in the future, as the British economy is getting worse and worse, and GDP is shrinking quite quickly. The choice of a new prime minister of Great Britain will only provide temporary support to the pound, since, in fact, it does not change anything. In turn, the US economy continues to show strength, and recent data on the labor market once again convinced investors that the US central bank, led by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, will continue to raise interest rates at an aggressive pace, which will only increase pressure on the British pound, which is experiencing quite a lot of problems lately. Expected high inflation and a looming cost-of-living crisis in the UK does not give traders room to take long positions, as a fairly large range of weak fundamentals is expected ahead, likely to push the pound even further below the levels at which it is currently trading. The latest COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions decreased by 306 to 58,477, while short non-commercial positions rose by 898 to 86,647, which led to a slight increase in the negative value of the non-commercial net position to -29,170 vs. -27,966. The weekly closing price collapsed from 1.1661 against 1.1822. Indicator signals: Trading is conducted in the area of 30 and 50-day moving averages, which indicates market uncertainty with the further direction. Moving averages Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands In case the pair goes down, the lower border of the indicator around 1.1435 will act as support. In case of growth, the upper border of the indicator around 1.1570 will act as resistance. Description of indicators Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart. Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart. MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9 Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20 Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders. Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-09 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321134
The Euro (EUR) Is In A Stable Channel And The Pound (GBP) Has Little Chance Of Falling

The GBP/USD Pair Hit The 2020 Low. The Bullish Dynamics Will Extend Today For The EUR/USD Pair

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 08.09.2022 10:20
Euro came close to parity, but it had nothing to do with the GDP data of the Euro area for the second quarter, which was better than the previous one. According to reports, the growth rate slowed to only 4.1%, indicating that the region is still away from recession than previously thought. EUR/USD did not increase immediately after the release of the GDP data, but after a couple of hours, when confidence grew that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates by 75 basis points today. Most likely, this bullish dynamics will extend today as ahead is the board meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, as well as a speech from ECB Chairman Christine Lagarde. If Lagarde hints at a further tightening of monetary policy, euro will continue to grow. If not, everything will return to normal, and euro will fall again below parity. GDP (Europe): All the attempts to keep EUR/USD below 0.9900 failed, so euro slipped back into parity. Most likely, speculation will take place in the market, which is why further growth in the pair is possible. But the overheating of long positions in the short term may ultimately lead to the exit of many players in the market. GBP/USD hit the 2020 low, but market participants failed to make it stay below. This is why the quote rolled back by 130 pips. In this situation, much will depend on speculators as they have a strong positive correlation between trading instruments.       Relevance up to 20:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321126
There Are Not Any Grounds For The Euro's (EUR) Growth

The Euro Can Locally Receive Support In The Market From Buyers, The Pound Is Oversold

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 08.09.2022 11:32
Details of the economic calendar for September 7 The European statistical agency Eurostat report on the third final estimate of GDP in the second quarter showed an increase of 4.1% in annual terms and 0.8%. The actual data came out better than the preliminary estimate, but this did not help the euro at the time of publication. Analysis of trading charts from September 7 The EURUSD currency pair tried to overcome the control value of 0.9900 for three days in a row, but the market participants failed to stay below it in the daily period. This resulted in a price rebound, which led to a reverse move towards the parity level. The GBPUSD currency pair did not just update the 2020 low (1.1410), the quote for a while turned out to be at the levels of 1985 . This historical event was instantly won back by speculators in the form of a technical pullback. As a result, the rate of the pound sterling returned above 1.1500. Economic calendar for September 8 The main event of Thursday, and the whole week, will be the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB). Without any doubt, the market is waiting for the regulator to raise the interest rate from 0.50% to 1.25%. This event has already been taken into account in the market but will still attract the proper attention of speculators, because a change in the rate by 75 basis points at once is a historical event. Thus, the euro can locally receive support in the market from buyers. After that, all attention will be focused on the subsequent press conference, where specifics are expected from the head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. The ECB's comments will indicate the subsequent price move in the market. Time targeting: Results of the ECB meeting – 12:15 UTC ECB press conference – 12:45 UTC ECB President Christine Lagarde speech – 14:15 UTC Trading plan for EUR/USD on September 8 Despite the possible overheating of long positions, in short-term time periods, speculators can still send the euro up due to the results of the ECB meeting. In this case, local price movement above 1.0050 is not excluded. In the work, it is worth considering that speculative hype is not the basis for a stable price movement. In the event of a minimal change in the mood of speculators, mass fixation of long positions is possible, which will lead to a reverse price move. Trading plan for GBP/USD on September 8 In this situation, there is still a signal that the pound is oversold, which, with rational technical analysis, could lead to the formation of a full-size correction. Everything would be exactly like this if there were no information and news flow, as well as other factors of pressure on the quote. Today there will be a lot of envy from the behavior of speculators in the euro market since, in this case, the European currency will be considered the leading one. Thus, synchronous price fluctuations will occur through a positive correlation between trading instruments. What is shown in the trading charts? A candlestick chart view is graphical rectangles of white and black light, with sticks on top and bottom. When analyzing each candle in detail, you will see its characteristics of a relative period: the opening price, closing price, and maximum and minimum prices. Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a stop or a price reversal may occur. These levels are called support and resistance in the market. Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price of the story unfolded. This color selection indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the quote in the future. The up/down arrows are the reference points of the possible price direction in the future.   Relevance up to 10:00 2022-09-09 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321156
The GBP/USD Pair Follows The Trend Of The EUR/USD Pair, Could This Change?

The Pound Is Under Pressure, The Fed Actions Weaken The GBP/USD Pair?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 08.09.2022 12:59
Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair Pound tested 1.1490 at a time when the MACD line was just starting to move below zero, which was a good signal to sell. That prompted a price decrease of around 60 pips, bringing the quote to 1.1427. Then, buyers became active in the market, so the pair rose by 20 pips. No other signals appeared for the rest of the day. Parliamentary hearings on the Bank of England's monetary policy and speech from Andrew Bailey increased pressure on pound as it became clear to traders that the pace of interest rate increases will not slow down even though the UK economy has been shrinking very much lately. As a result, pound hit new lows, which traders took advantage of to take profits. This led to dollar not growing in the afternoon despite the statements of FOMC members Loretta Mester and Lael Brainard There are no statistics scheduled to be released in the UK today, so markets will focus on the report on US jobless claims. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will also speak, and it is likely that it will cause a decline in GBP/USD as he may hint at further aggressive actions by the Fed. Data on the volume of consumer lending will not affect the market in any way, especially after such statistics. For long positions: Buy pound when the quote reaches 1.1519 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1574 (thicker green line on the chart). Growth will occur if risk appetite recovers after the meeting of the European Central Bank. Take note that when buying, the MACD line should be above zero or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.1494, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1519 and 1.1574. For short positions: Sell pound when the quote reaches 1.1494 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1427. Pressure will return after a slight upward correction and failed attempt to consolidate above 1.1519. Take note that when selling, the MACD line should be below zero or is starting to move down from it. Pound can also be sold at 1.1519, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1494 and 1.1427. What's on the chart: The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the GBP/USD pair. The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level. The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the GBP/USD pair. The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level. MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones. Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-09 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321144
What Trend Is Forecast For The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Pair

The British Pound Started With Growth, How Will The GPD/USD Pair Look Like Today?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 09.09.2022 08:28
Yesterday, the pound closed down 30 points on the back of a weakening euro and the death of Queen Elizabeth II. But the central banks reacted extremely quickly and bought the market against the news. The volume of trading in the pound was the largest since July 14. Today, the pound started with growth, the price went above the resistance of 1.1525, on which it has been holding for the fourth day with strong fluctuations in both directions. The Marlin oscillator is growing on the daily scale, the price may reach the target level of 1.1600. But there is also a significant level slightly above it - 1.1650. This creates a danger that the price will quietly reach this level, and then consolidate above it and try to break through to 1.1815. But for now, we do not expect the pound to rise above 1.1600. Data on construction, trade balance and industrial production in the UK will be released on Monday, the forecasts for them are negative. The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator broke out of the triangle to the upside on the four-hour chart. The oscillator can now penetrate into the overbought zone, and this time the price will reach the nearest target level of 1.1600.   Relevance up to 04:00 2022-09-10 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321228
The Recovery Of The GBP/USD Pair May Be Temporary, The Trend Remains Bearish

The British Pound To The US Dollar Keep Bearish Mood?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 09.09.2022 08:51
GBP/USD 5M     The GBP/USD currency pair traditionally tried to resume the downward movement on Thursday, but this time it was not possible to update the 37-year lows. The volatility was quite high during the day - about 100 points - and the movements often replaced each other. Moreover, if the euro really had reason to change direction often (the European Central Bank meeting, Lagarde's speech), then the pound did not. However, it almost completely copied the euro's movements, as is often the case in recent months. It is worth noting that not only the ECB meeting took place yesterday, but also Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech in New York. Despite the fact that Powell did not report anything new to the markets, he nevertheless once again confirmed the immutability of the central bank's plans regarding monetary policy and the fight against inflation. Thus, the hawkish mood has been preserved, therefore, the US currency may continue to rise in price. It is firmly below the descending trend line, therefore, from a technical perspective, the downward trend continues. But there was a problem with trading signals. The critical Kijun-sen line was a kind of pivot for the pair's movements today, so the price worked it out seven or eight times during the day. Each time, accordingly, a signal was formed. However, let us recall that when all signals are formed near the same line or level, this is a sign of a flat. Not surprisingly, most of these signals were found to be false. Moreover, the only level that the price could really reach is the level of 1.1442. From above, the nearest level was very far away. The first sell signal was closed at a loss, and the second made it possible to win back this loss, but the deal had to be closed manually. As a result, the day ended in zero profit. COT report:     The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report on the British pound turned out to be as neutral as possible. During the week, the non-commercial group closed 300 long positions and opened 900 short positions. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders immediately increased by 1,200. The net position indicator has been growing for several months, but the mood of the big players still remains "pronounced bearish", which is clearly seen in the second indicator in the chart above (purple bars below zero = bearish mood). Therefore, the growth of the British pound still cannot count. How can you count on it if the market sells the pound more than it buys? And now its fall has resumed altogether, so the bearish mood of major players in the near future can only intensify. The non-commercial group now has a total of 87,000 shorts and 58,000 longs open. The difference is not as terrifying as it was a few months ago, but it is still noticeable. The net position will have to show growth for a long time to at least equalize these figures. Moreover, COT reports are a reflection of the mood of major players, and their mood is influenced by the "foundation" and geopolitics. If they remain as weak as they are now, then the pound may still be in a "downward peak" for some time. Also remember that it is not only the demand for the pound that matters, but also the demand for the dollar, which seems to remain very strong. Therefore, even if the demand for the British currency grows, if the demand for the dollar grows at a higher rate, then we will not see the strengthening of the pound. We recommend to familiarize yourself with: Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 9. The ECB raised the rate by 0.75%, the euro continues to remain in a coma. Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 9. The British pound is floating around 37-year lows. Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on September 9. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions. GBP/USD 1H     The pound/dollar pair maintains a downward trend on the hourly timeframe. Despite quite a growth yesterday and the day before that, it is clearly seen on the hourly timeframe that the price has only slightly moved away from its 37-year lows. Thus, the technical picture has not changed at all. We highlight the following important levels for September 9: 1.1411-1.1442, 1.1649, 1.1874. Senkou Span B (1.1669) and Kijun-sen (1.1504) lines can also be sources of signals. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthroughs" of these levels and lines. The Stop Loss level is recommended to be set to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. The chart also contains support and resistance levels that can be used to take profits on trades. There are no major events or reports planned in either the UK or the US on Friday. However, the pair may continue to trade volatilely because it doesn't need fundamentals or macroeconomics in recent weeks or even months to show strong moves. Explanations for the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.       Relevance up to 02:00 2022-09-10 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321220
The GBP/USD Pair Was Trading Calmly But The Volatility Still Remained Very High

The Rally In Markets That Started Yesterday Is Likely To Continue Today

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 09.09.2022 09:57
Markets closed higher on Thursday, thanks to the outcome of the ECB meeting and speeches of Christine Lagarde and Jerome Powell. Optimism clearly spilled over, so stocks and commodities rose up, while dollar fell down. But at first glance, markets semed to have acted illogically as euro and European stock indices declined. That was after the ECB raised the key interest rate by 0.75% to 1.25% and Lagarde said that the central bank gives priority to rate increases to fight inflation. Fortunately, sometime later, markets began to grow, with stocks rising over the closure of short positions. Regarding how far euro can rise against dollar, much will depend on the plans of the Fed over interest rates. If Powell informs of a slowdown in inflation after the monetary policy in September and hints that the central bank will weaken the pace of rate hikes, dollar will continue to decline, which will lead to the further increase of EUR/USD. This will also cause growth in stock indices, first in the US, then on other global trading floors. So far, the Fed is still firm in its hawkish position, but the rally in markets that started yesterday is likely to continue today. Forecasts for today: GBP/USD The pair is trading below 1.1600. Overcoming this mark on the wave of a continued market rally will push the quote to 1.1720. XAU/USD Spot gold is trading below the strong resistance level of 1722.00. A break of this level amid positive dynamics on markets, accompanied by the weakening of dollar, will lead to a price increase to 1733.00.   Relevance up to 07:00 2022-09-12 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321238
The Euro (EUR) Is In A Stable Channel And The Pound (GBP) Has Little Chance Of Falling

Will Currency Pairs (EUR/USD And GBP/USD) Continue Yesterday's Trends?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 09.09.2022 12:06
Details of the economic calendar for September 8 The European Central Bank (ECB) raised all three key interest rates by 75 basis points. The base interest rate on loans was raised to 1.25%, the rate on deposits to 0.75%, and the rate on margin loans to 1.5%. The main points of the ECB press release: - Over the next few meetings, the regulator is considering further rate hikes to protect against rising inflation. - The ECB will regularly review the course of its monetary policy in the course of incoming statistics. - Future ECB rate decisions will be data driven and follow the approach taken at each meeting. - ECB members have revised their inflation forecasts, which are expected to average 8.1% in 2022, 5.5% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024. - The ECB expects GDP in the EU to grow by 3.1% in 2022, 0.9% in 2023 and 1.9% in 2024. Conclusion from the meeting: The regulator's decision to raise rates by 75 basis points was anticipated by the market. This event was already on everyone's lips. For this reason, there was no reaction, despite the historical scale of the hanging. The main theses of Christine Lagarde's press conference: - The regulator will continue to raise interest rates at upcoming meetings. - The energy crisis is intensifying the economic slowdown. - The weakness of global economic growth will slow down economic growth in the EU. - A weak euro is bad; it leads to an increase in inflation. - The decisions on the rate at the current meeting were made unanimously. - The subsequent rate increase will not necessarily be by 75 basis points. - The ECB is not at a neutral rate. - In order to reach a neutral level on the rate, additional increases will be required. - The unfavorable scenario considers a recession in 2023. - Now is not the time to stop reinvestment in the Asset Purchase Program (APP). - Rates are far from being necessary to reduce inflation, and even more rate hikes will be required than at the remaining two meetings this year. - To curb the growth of inflation, it is necessary to raise rates at more than two meetings, but less than five meetings Conclusion from the press conference: Christine Lagarde has repeatedly spoken out in favor of further tightening of monetary policy. There is no clear understanding of the neutral rate yet, but the intention to raise it at the remaining meetings this year and next year is clear. Lagarde also noted that the regulator does not like the weak euro table. Analysis of trading charts from September 8 The EURUSD currency pair spent the past day in speculation, where at first there was a downward trend, and then all the drawdowns in the euro were bought off. As a result, the day was closed at the parity level, from which all speculation began. The cause and effect of speculation is described above—this is an information and news flow. The GBPUSD currency pair, despite the speculative activity, repeats the price fluctuations of its counterpart in the EURUSD market. This is due to the positive correlation between trading instruments, where at this time, the euro is considered the leading currency. Economic calendar for September 9 Today the macroeconomic calendar is empty, important statistics for Europe, Great Britain and the United States are not expected. Investors and traders are likely to continue to focus on the information flow of such hot topics as the energy crisis in the EU, the ECB/Fed, inflation. Trading plan for EUR/USD on September 9 There was a rush on the market for long positions on the euro at the opening of Asian trading session. This led to an upward jump in the price, based on which the quote rose above the value of 1.0050. Stable price retention above the reference value (1.0050) in the daily period may indicate the formation of a full-size correction relative to the downward trend. Otherwise, it is impossible to exclude the scenario of a reverse move to the boundaries of the previous amplitude of 0.9900/1.0050. Trading plan for GBP/USD on September 9 In this situation, the price rebound from the local low of 2020 led to the strengthening of the British currency by about 180 points. To move into the stage of a full correction, the quote needs to stay above the value of 1.1620 for at least a four-hour period. Otherwise, the current ascending cycle may slow down, followed by a return to the support. What is shown in the trading charts? A candlestick chart view is graphical rectangles of white and black light, with sticks on top and bottom. When analyzing each candle in detail, you will see its characteristics of a relative period: the opening price, closing price, and maximum and minimum prices. Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a stop or a price reversal may occur. These levels are called support and resistance in the market. Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price of the story unfolded. This color selection indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the quote in the future. The up/down arrows are the reference points of the possible price direction in the future.     Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-10 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321266
The Bears Are In Full Control Of The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Market

When Show Opportunities To Buy Or To Sell The GBP/USD Pair?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 09.09.2022 12:59
Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair Pound tested 1.1494 at a time when the MACD line was just starting to move below zero, which was a good signal to sell. That prompted a price decrease of around 15 pips, after which pressure eased and brought the pair to 1.1519. But the MACD line was already far from zero, so the upside potential was limited. Traders relied on news from the eurozone when entering the market yesterday. However, it was only today that pound managed to get out of the sideways channel. A survey regarding the expected inflation in the UK will be coming today, but it is unlikely to affect the direction of GBP/USD. As such, the pair will maintain an upward corrective potential that may lead to a breakdown of 1.1612. In the afternoon, there are no important statistics in the US, except for changes in the volume of stocks in wholesale warehouses. There will be presentations from FOMC members Charles Evans, Christopher Waller and Esther George, but all of them are likely to talk about further increases in interest rates. For long positions: Buy pound when the quote reaches 1.1612 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1661 (thicker green line on the chart). Growth may continue today, during the Asian session. Take note that when buying, the MACD line should be above zero or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.1576, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1612 and 1.1661. For short positions: Sell pound when the quote reaches 1.1576 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1517. Pressure will return after a failed attempt to update the weekly high. Take note that when selling, the MACD line should be below zero or is starting to move down from it. Pound can also be sold at 1.1612, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1576 and 1.1517. What's on the chart: The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the GBP/USD pair. The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level. The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the GBP/USD pair. The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level. MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones. Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.     Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-10 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321256
The US Dollar To Japanene Yen Pair Has Potential For Further Big Growth

Geopolitical Events And Macro Data Strongly Affect Currency Pairs

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 09.09.2022 13:58
Summary:  A sharp US dollar sell-off has developed, one that materialized suddenly overnight and was extended by comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda that inspired a steep plunge in USDJPY after its recent aggravated extension higher. The ECB meeting yesterday brought more hawkish than expected guidance, theoretically helping the EURUSD back-up well above parity, though the timing of the bulk of the rally in Asian hours offers cause for head-scratching. FX Trading focus: What is the quality of this USD sell-off…and JPY rally? The USD move overnight looked suspicious as it came just after midnight GMT – perhaps led by a run on stop orders above yesterday’s post-ECB meeting high around 1.0030? Hmm – the move was broad-based, so not entirely convinced. China set its yuan reference rate sharply higher than expected about an hour later, and then the BoJ Kuroda comments discussed below came on board. The move in EURUSD happening in Asian hours rather in the context of the ECB meeting having already sharply boosted EU yields earlier in the day yesterday has me scratching my head and wondering at the quality of this USD move lower – and wanting to reserve judgment on what is going on here at least until the end of today’s/this week’s action and possibly until we see how the market treats the EU’s power price cap plan after the summit on the matter in Brussels today and then next Tuesday’s US August CPI release. It is no major surprise that some stern words from Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda were able to inspire a sharp consolidation lower in USDJPY after its wild extension higher recently that seemed a bit excessive relative to the support from coincident fundamental indicators like global long sovereign yields/spreads. After meeting Prime Minister Kishida overnight, Kuroda said that “sudden moves in foreign exchange rates increase uncertainty for firms and are undesirable.” And “ a two to three yen move against the dollar in a single day is very sudden.” A couple of figures on a comment are easy, more would require a more notable retreat in global yields and commodity prices and perhaps real intervention. By the way, an FT article with the provocative title “Can Japan feed itself” makes clear that food prices have been capped by the Japanese supermarket industry for some time now at the retail level and are set for a significant reset on October 1. This will mean a leap in the official CPI numbers from the month of October. At the same time, PM Kishida is readying a new raft of packages aimed at supporting lower income households cost-of-living challenges. There is a chicken and egg problem here with price controls and preventing cost-of-living increases on the one hand and the Bank of Japan theoretically waiting for the Godot of wages beginning to rise to signal that inflation is becoming more embedded. With cost-of-living support, the wage earner is less likely to demand a raise…. Something is going to have to give, but it’s hard to believe that a stern few phrases from Kuroda will do the trick, although this could be the beginning of a far more choppy JPY trajectory from here, as from these levels or lower in the JPY, the Ministry of Finance may be willing to throw billions of intervention into the mix in an attempt to halt further JPY declines. Chart: USDJPYBoJ comments overnight have triggered a significant slide in USDJPY, if one not yet as large as the two-day rallythat sent the pair soaring all the way to the cusp of 145.00 two days ago. A retreat and close anywhere close to 140.00 today would create an interesting shooting star formation for the weekly candlestick, although really the pair needs to wipe out a great proportion of the move from the pivot low in early August at 130.40 to suggest a more profound reversal is afoot here. Meanwhile, a close today in the 142-143 range suggests that little harm has been done, even tactically, to the USDJPY up-trend. The ECB meeting brought far firmer guidance from the central bank than expected, as German 2-year yields traded some 30 basis points higher today relative to the close the day before the meeting – to a new cycle high north of 1.40% before that move faded sharply today back toward 1.30%. The 75-basis point hike was the largest in the ECB’s history and is expected to be repeated at the late October meeting after the guidance that another move of that size can’t be ruled out in yesterday’s presser. But Europe needs sustained relief on the energy/power price front for a more sustainable rally. Curiously, the market waking up to EURUSD trading well north of parity this morning had nothing to do timing-wise with the ECB as it unfolded overnight. Yesterday, the market seemed unsure with what to do with the euro in the immediate aftermath of the decision and guidance. For EURUSD, a close above 1.0100, which was teased today, is needed to set the focus toward the next area into 1.0350, while a close back below parity today would suggest that the overnight pump was merely linked to poor liquidity, order flow and the Bank of Japan verbal intervention mentioned above. An election is set this weekend for Sweden, with the currency market not particularly holding its breath in anticipation. EURSEK has corrected sharply lower in fitting with the strong risk sentiment of the moment, but has a lot of work to do to set the focus back lower, at least a move below 10.50. As I am writing this, the Bank of England has announced that it is moving back its next meeting from next week to the following week, likely due to Queen Elizabeth’s death and the mourning period, but this will give the Bank the luxury of having a look at the FOMC meeting the day before and whether it needs to stiffen its message or even hike more than it anticipated if sterling is struggling to new lows going into the meeting. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.The USD momentum has shifted sharply lower over the last couple of days, but reserving judgment at least until the daily/weekly close today. Elsewhere, look at CHF continuing to power on despite the ECB hawkish guidance yesterday. Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.It’s looking like cross-over day again for EURCHF after the ECB failed to sustain the recent rally despite the mark-up of EU yields. USDCHF has also rolled over and is threatening a turn lower, although looking at the chart, there is a lot of choppy range to work with yet. Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights 1230 – Canada Aug. Net Change in Employment / Unemployment Rate 1600 – US Fed’s Waller (Voter) to speak 1600 – US Fed’s George (Voter) to speak   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/forex/fx-update-usd-weakens-broadly-but-are-the-drivers-sustainable-09092022
What Trend Is Forecast For The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Pair

The British Pound Strengthened Against The Dollar

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 09.09.2022 14:44
While the UK is in national mourning over the death of Queen Elizabeth II, and market participants are assessing the statements of the new British Prime Minister Liz Truss regarding the future plans of the British government, the pound strengthened against the dollar while remaining vulnerable in the main cross pairs. Today, the GBP/USD pair rose to an intra-week high of 1.1647, mainly taking advantage of the weakening dollar. It, in turn, is declining against the background of growing demand for shares and other high-yield assets of the stock market. Investors were also generally positive about the ECB's decision yesterday to raise interest rates by 0.75% rather than 0.50%, as previously thought. In addition, the latest forecasts of economists regarding the rate of GDP growth in the Eurozone suggest that next year the European economy may avoid recession. "Economic growth rates are declining, but the ECB is not predicting a recession yet," economists say. The ECB's accompanying statement spoke of the readiness of its leaders to take further steps to tighten monetary policy. "Curbing the dynamic in inflation is ECB's only concern," said ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot. One way or another, investors decided to fix part of long dollar positions at the end of the week, which also led to a decrease in its quotes. Now market participants will wait for the Fed meeting on September 20–21. US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed the readiness of the central bank to continue the policy of high interest rates until the situation with inflation completely stabilizes. The Fed's interest rate is assumed to rise again by 0.75%, which is a bullish factor for the dollar. In this regard, today market participants will pay attention to the speeches of the Fed representatives Charles Evans, Christopher Waller and Esther George, scheduled for the first half of today's US trading session. And yet, despite the correction, the dollar retains the potential for further growth. Last Wednesday, its DXY index hit a 20-year high at 110.78. A breakdown of this local resistance level will signal the resumption of the upward dynamics of DXY, and the level of 111.00 will be the nearest target. As for the pound, important macro statistics on it will be released early next week, and on Thursday (at 11:00 GMT), the Bank of England will announce its decision regarding monetary policy. Most likely, the interest rate will be raised again. As of this writing, the GBP/USD pair is trading near 1.1618, retreating from today's high of 1.1647. A breakdown of the support level at 1.1578 may be a signal to resume short positions.   Relevance up to 12:00 2022-09-10 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321286
Will The Outlook For The Pound-Dollar (GBP/USD) Currency Pair Be Positive

The GBP/USD Pair Is Trading Above The Support Level

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 09.09.2022 14:49
The GBP/USD pair rose to an intra-week high of 1.1647, mainly taking advantage of the weakening dollar. As of this writing, the GBP/USD pair is trading near 1.1618, retreating from today's high of 1.1647. Taking into account the general downward trend of the pair, the breakdown of the important short-term support level 1.1578 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart) may become a signal for the resumption of short positions. Thus, the current growth of GBP/USD may become a new opportunity for building up short positions. At the same time, GBP/USD is trading above the support level of 1.1578. In the alternative scenario, the probability of growth to the resistance levels of 1.1820 (200 EMA on the 4-hour chart), 1.1910 (50 EMA on the daily chart) cannot be dismissed. If dollar buyers fail to quickly take control of the situation and overcome the dollar weakening impulse that is dangerous for them, then a breakdown of the local resistance level of 1.1650 may provoke further growth of the GBP/USD, as we noted above, towards resistance levels of 1.1820, 1.1910. But for now, short positions remain preferable. Below the key resistance levels 1.2390 (144 EMA on the daily chart), 1.2570 (200 EMA on the daily chart), GBP/USD remains in the long-term bearish market zone. Support levels: 1.1600, 1.1578, 1.1500, 1.1410 Resistance levels: 1.1650, 1.1700, 1.1760, 1.1820, 1.1910, 1.2000, 1.2270, 1.2390, 1.2570 Trading Tips Sell Stop 1.1560. Stop-Loss 1.1660. Take-Profit 1.1500, 1.1410 Buy Stop 1.1660. Stop-Loss 1.1560. Take-Profit 1.1700, 1.1760, 1.1820, 1.1910, 1.2000, 1.2270, 1.2390, 1.2570   Relevance up to 12:00 2022-09-10 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321293
The Bears Are In Full Control Of The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Market

The UK New Government Could Raise Inflation Expectations And Lead To A “Sterling Crisis”

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 09.09.2022 15:47
GBP/USD has recorded sharp gains today. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.1608, up 0.92% on the day. Still, the pound remains vulnerable – on Wednesday, it fell to 1.1407, its lowest level since 1985. Looking ahead to next week, there is a data dump on Monday, with GDP and Manufacturing Production the key events. It’s a very light calendar today, with no UK data and only one minor US event. Even so, the British pound has jumped on the bandwagon as the US dollar is broadly lower. The US dollar has taken a break after some impressive gains, as the pound has fallen some 500 points in just three weeks. With the US economy in good shape while the UK struggles, GBP/USD could resume its downtrend shortly. In the UK, PMIs have been pointing to weak conditions across the economy. The August manufacturing and construction PMIs pointed to contraction, with readings below the neutral 50.0 line. The Services PMI managed to remain in expansion territory, but just barely, at 50.9. Inflation remains red hot, hitting 10.1% in July, which has caused a severe cost-of-living crisis. Incoming Prime Minister Truss has pledged to cap energy bills, at a cost of some 132 billion pounds, which will provide households with some badly-needed relief. Truss inherits a struggling economy and her initial policy moves will be closely watched. Deutsche Bank has warned that an “unfunded and untargeted fiscal expansion” by the new government could raise inflation expectations and lead to a “sterling crisis”. What’s next for the Federal Reserve? The next meeting is on September 21st, with the Fed looking to raise rates by either 50 or 75 basis points. Next week’s inflation report could be a major factor in the Fed’s decision. Fed Chair Powell and other members have stated that curbing inflation is “priority number one”, and if inflation falls, it will raise speculation that the Fed plans to ease up, which would weigh on the US dollar. In July, inflation unexpectedly fell, and market exuberance about a change in Fed policy sent the US dollar sharply lower, despite the Fed saying its stance had not changed. . GBP/USD Technical 1.1589 has switched to support. Below, there is support at 1.1417 There is resistance at 1.1682 and 1.1839 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
The Weakening Of Confidence In The British Government| Oil Prices Extended Gains And More

GBP: Bank's Of England Plans Underwhelms Traders. UK Has To Face Energy Crisis And More

Jing Ren Jing Ren 09.09.2022 15:12
Maximum effort Global super-sized hikes give dollar breathing room GBPUSD hits 30-month low as recession looms The pound suffers from a symptom of high inflation and high interest rates. Expectations of steep rate hikes by the BoE fails to impress traders who tend to shy away from risk assets. Britain is facing strong headwinds in the shape of recession, soaring government spending and an energy crisis. The market fears that a 50bp increase would dampen consumer and business confidence and put growth at risk, a hefty cost for taming inflation. Meanwhile, the US dollar is backed by a sound economy and its safe-haven appeal, meaning that cable could stay subdued. 1.1420 is a critical support from March 2020 and 1.2100 the first resistance. EURUSD steadies on hawkish ECB The euro reclaimed parity following hawkish comments from the ECB. The central bank lifted rates by a record 75 basis points. Speculations run that another super-sized 75bp could be on the table next month. Now that the Europeans are on the same page as their US counterpart, a halt to the widening rate gap could prevent further bleeding in the exchange rate. However, the downside risk remains as the bloc is heading into a tough winter with soaring energy bills and debt burdens. A correction in the greenback may struggle to trigger a sustained recovery. 1.0320 is the first resistance and 0.9800 a close support. USOIL falters over weak demand WTI falls as traders fear that a recession is right around the corner. Lacklustre August trade numbers from China suggest more headwinds for the global economy. Exports lost steam due to softening demand from the US and EU while local lockdowns and weak consumer sentiment weigh on imports. Slower growth in China, the second largest oil consumer, may keep the market on its toes. In the meantime, major central banks’ relentless push for tighter financial conditions to fight inflation could be the straw that broke the camel’s back, making recession a reality. The price could be capped at 97.00 and heading towards 75.00. NAS 100 slips over tighter monetary policy The Nasdaq 100 stalls as the prospect of a prolonged downturn weighs on risk assets. The Fed is expected to raise rates by another 75 basis points at its September meeting. With growing signs of an economic slowdown in Europe and China, investors are wondering whether central banks might push too hard and send the world’s economy overboard. The combination of a global downturn and a hawkish Fed may keep restraining anyone’s enthusiasm in growth-sensitive stocks. The downside risk would be a complete reversal of July’s rally below the critical floor at 11400, thus confirming a bearish market. 13160 a fresh resistance. Key data release (GMT time) Tuesday, 13 September 06:00 ILO Unemployment Rate Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices 12:30 Consumer Price Index Wednesday, 14 September 06:00 Consumer Price Index 22:45 Gross Domestic Product Thursday, 15 September 01:30 Unemployment Rate 11:00 BoE Interest Rate Decision 12:30 Retail Sales Friday, 16 September 14:00 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
Summary Of The Week On Financial Markets

Summary Of The Week On Financial Markets

Ed Moya Ed Moya 11.09.2022 09:18
This week suddenly ends on a positive note as the S&P 500 broad market index, which started to climb on Wednesday, has lead the major stock market indicator to 4032 points, the highest since August 30. This is very strange considering all the negative news that could have affected the stock market this week. The European Central Bank (ECB) raised all interest rates by 75 basis points. This is the second time in the history of the single currency that such a move has been performed. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed the central bank will continue to do everything needed to bring inflation down to the 2.0% target. This kind of rhetoric is also being echoes by ECB President Christine Lagarde who has assured markets that the Bank is likely to take further bold steps to raise interest rates over the coming months. The message from these two bank leaders may enforce stocks to continue to move down.  However, investors found a reason to pull on the breaks and stop markets from another sell-off. Chicago Fed Bank President Charles Evans supported investors by saying that the next inflation report next week may point to how much the Fed could raise its interest rates this month. "If I saw inflation maybe cooling a little bit that's not going to change the fact that I still think we are going to need to top out at something like 3.5% to 4%, it's just that maybe we don't have to do it that soon," Evans said. Some investors were flooded with euphoria after crude prices fell by 16% over the last two month. It is clear that inflation may slow down significantly in August and perhaps prompt a less-than-expected Fed interest rate move.  It sounds more like wishful thinking as inflation is considerably above the existing level of interest rates for the Fed to pull the breaks on, even if prices slowed down in August. However, many investors are seen to support the idea and hope for stocks to recover. Even though some investors are holding onto hope, we should not exclude the possibility that a downside path of stock indexes could be a bit bumpy. The technical picture for the S&P 500 index is still negative as it is moving within an aggressive downside formation after it failed to climb above 4020 points on Thursday. This has now become a strong resistance level that may send the index back to the downside targets at 3850-3950 points. More negative drivers may send the index further down to the extreme secondary targets at 3600-3700 points, and even further down to heartbreaking 3000-3100 points.  In recent weeks, short positions at 70% of the targeted volume were opened at the average price of 4285-4290 points. The rest of the 30% could be opened once strong reliable downside signals emerge. The final downside target in the long-term is located at 2100-2300 points that could be reached by the end of 2022. The oil market made a huge step to the downside towards $75-85 per barrel of the Brent crude benchmark. Crude prices dipped down amid new anti-covid measures in China, unwinding global recession fears and a sharp rise of oil inventories in the United States. Brent prices slipped down to $87-88 per barrel, the lowest since January 2022, and are likely to continue down to the extreme targets at $50-65 per barrel that could be hit by November. In the short-term crude prices are less predictable making any entry points unreliable at the moment.  Gold prices are on a downside slide and they may last until the end of October. The primary scenario suggests prices may reach $1350-1450 per ounce by November. So, it would be reasonable to open short or small-short positions considering the current price movement at $1730 per ounce. The Euro was cheered on by the ECB’s decision to sharpen its interest rates hike, changing its formation to the aggressive upside with a primary target at 1.02500-1.03500. A reasonable correction to 1.00500-1.00800 is needed to open long positions. Once this correction is made the EURUSD could be interesting for long trades. GBPUSD also changed its formation to the aggressive upside with a target at 1.18000-1.18500. The pair needs to step back to 1.15300-1.15800 to be interesting to open long positions.
The Recovery Of The GBP/USD Pair May Be Temporary, The Trend Remains Bearish

How The British Pound To The US Dollar Started A New Week?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 12.09.2022 08:08
The pound gained 86 points on Friday. The upper shadow tested the level of 1.1648, the low of August 29th. Consolidation above the resistance will open the target range of 1.1755-1.1815, formed by the daily MACD indicator line and the target level of 1.1815. The downward movement will recover after the price settles under the support level of 1.1525 – the nearest target is 1.1385. The Marlin Oscillator is growing in the negative zone, so the current growth is considered in terms of a correction. Marlin can reach the zero line simultaneously with the price reaching the 1.1755-1.1815 range, where, if the pound does not turn around earlier, there is a high degree of probability that it will turn into a medium-term decline. The price is gathering strength under the resistance of 1.1648 on the four-hour chart, the Marlin Oscillator is preparing to continue the growth. If it does rise, then we are waiting for its continuation to the specified target range of 1.1755-1.1815. The decline is associated with additional difficulty in the form of the MACD line under the support of 1.1525 in the area of 1.1482, therefore, overcoming the price of only the support of 1.1525 may not be enough for full confidence in the development of the medium-term weakening of the British pound.         Relevance up to 04:00 2022-09-13 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321368
The Bears Are In Full Control Of The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Market

The Pound/Dollar Pair Maintains A Downward Trend On The Hourly Timeframe

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 12.09.2022 08:20
GBP/USD 5M The GBP/USD currency pair continued its corrective growth on Friday and managed to complete the downward trend line. Thus, a rebound from this line provoked a new round of decline, but so far the price remains in the immediate vicinity, so the upward movement may still continue with subsequent overcoming. If this happens, then the trend will temporarily change to an upward trend and the pound will have another opportunity to continue moving up. On Friday, there were no important macroeconomic statistics or fundamentals in either the US or the UK. All of Britain mourned the untimely death of Queen Elizabeth II. Important statistics will be published in this country only next week. Therefore, the pound uses this time to at least slightly move away from its 37-year lows. It turns out so far badly, but too little time has passed. In regards to Friday's trading signals, everything was both bad and excellent at the same time. Only one signal was formed, but it turned out to be very strong and profitable. The price rebounded from the level of 1.1649 with a minimal error and after that it fell by 83 points at the moment. Of course, it was not possible to close the deal at the highest profit - it also failed to reach the critical line. Therefore, it was necessary to close the short position manually in the late afternoon. Profit amounted to at least 50 points. COT report: The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report on the British pound released yesterday, was very eloquent. During the week, the non-commercial group closed 5,700 long positions and opened 15,500 short positions. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders immediately fell by 21,100, which is a lot for the pound. The net position indicator has been growing for several months, but the mood of the big players still remains pronounced bearish, which is clearly seen in the second indicator in the chart above (purple bars below zero = bearish mood). And now it has begun a new fall, so the British pound still cannot count on a strong growth. How can you count on it if the market sells the pound more than it buys? And now its fall has resumed altogether, so the bearish mood of major players in the near future can only intensify. The non-commercial group now has a total of 103,000 shorts and 52,000 longs open. The difference is twofold. The net position will have to show growth for a long time to at least equalize these figures. Moreover, COT reports are a reflection of the mood of major players, and their mood is influenced by the foundation and geopolitics. If they remain the same as they are now, then the pound may still be in a "downward peak" for some time. We recommend to familiarize yourself with: Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 12. European inflation and the speeches of the ECB representatives. Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 12. Inflation in the UK, inflation in the US... it's going to be an interesting week! Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on September 12. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions. GBP/USD 1H The pound/dollar pair maintains a downward trend on the hourly timeframe. Despite quite a rise yesterday and the day before yesterday, it is clearly seen on the hourly timeframe that the price has slightly moved away from its 37-year lows and continues to be below the trend line. Thus, the technical picture has not changed yet. We highlight the following important levels on September 12: 1.1411-1.1442, 1.1649, 1.1874. Senkou Span B (1.1669) and Kijun-sen (1.1524) lines can also be sources of signals. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthroughs" of these levels and lines. The Stop Loss level is recommended to be set to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. The chart also contains support and resistance levels that can be used to take profits on trades. The UK will publish relatively important reports on GDP and industrial production on Monday. The second report is unlikely to cause a strong market reaction, but the first could theoretically do so. The problem is that this is a monthly GDP report, not a quarterly one. It is of much less interest to traders. Explanations for the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.       Relevance up to 02:00 2022-09-13 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321360
Will The Outlook For The Pound-Dollar (GBP/USD) Currency Pair Be Positive

The GBP/USD Pair: The Bulls Has Failed To Continue The Corrective Cycle

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 12.09.2022 09:40
Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair has been seen continuing the bounce from the level of 1.1410 (7 years low) as the momentum is strong and positive on the H4 time frame chart. The US Dollar is in the pull-back mode, which helps the bulls to continue the up move. The local supply zone located between the levels of 1.1598 - 1.1622 had been broken, so the next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.1717 and 1.1760. Those levels are just under the trend line resistance as well, so needs to be broken, because the larger time frame trend (daily and weekly) remains down until further notice. The levels of 1.1598 and 1.1622 will now act as the intraday technical support. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.16716 WR2 - 1.16430 WR1 - 1.16286 Weekly Pivot - 1.16144 WS1 - 1.16000 WS2 - 1.15858 WS3 - 1.15572 Trading Outlook: The bulls has failed big time to continue the corrective cycle after a big Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made on the weekly time frame. The bears tested the level of 1.1410 (2020 swing low) and now the market is in the pull back mode. In order to terminate the down trend, bulls need to break above the level of 1.2275 (swing high from August 10th).     Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-13 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/292306
GBP/USD Pair: A Reversal Signal Will Be The Price Consolidating

UK GDP Grew Only 0.2%! British Pound May Expect A 50bp Rate Hike. Would Labor Market Get Better Thanks To The Energy Price Cap?

ING Economics ING Economics 12.09.2022 10:00
The absence of a post-bank holiday rebound means July's GDP grew by only 0.2%, and we should expect further volatility over the next few months. But big picture, the announcement of an energy price guarantee should materially reduce the depth of a downturn this winter, even if it doesn't totally rule out the risk of a technical recession UK growth should be volatile in the months ahead July's GDP figures are disappointing The UK economy expanded by 0.2% in July, which was less than might have been expected. June had featured an extra bank holiday in recognition of the Queen’s Jubilee, and that had triggered an artificial drop in activity in some key sectors – albeit less pronounced than during the equivalent holidays in 2002 and 2012. However, July’s figures are largely absent of the mechanical rebound one might have expected, not least because that's what we saw after those previous jubilee holidays. For instance, manufacturing output grew only 0.1% in July, having fallen by 1.6% in June. It was a similar story in wholesale/retail and construction. We’re reluctant to pin any particular economic narrative to that, and instead, we think we’ll need to take this and indeed the next few months’ figures with a slight pinch of salt. The extra bank holiday this month, which coincides with Queen Elizabeth II’s funeral on Monday, means we’re likely to see similar volatility in the data during September and October. That means we’ll most likely need to wait until later in the fourth quarter to get a clearer sense of where the economy is headed, at least looking through the lens of the GDP numbers. For now, it looks like third-quarter growth will be largely flat, and the fourth quarter slightly negative. Government energy price guarantee should reduce the depth of a downturn Bigger picture, the announcement of an energy price cap by the government last week should make a material difference to the outlook this winter. The average household will see their energy costs capped at £2500 for the next two years, which when you factor in some existing support, should mean bills stay roughly the same as they are now for the time being. Businesses will also receive similar support for an initial six-month period. While we’d caution about automatically assuming this means the economy avoids a technical recession, it should help limit the depth of any downturn over winter to a few tenths of a percent. We’re also hopeful that the announcement of business support can help insure against a material rise in unemployment. Hiring demand has been slowing, and the clear risk was that the sharp rise in energy bills would see redundancies (which are currently at their lows) begin to rise. Incidentally, with the GDP figures looking volatile, we suspect the Bank of England will put slightly more emphasis on other data, including tomorrow’s jobs figures. We expect a 50bp rate hike when the Bank meets next week, and we’re pencilling another such move in November. Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
What Trend Is Forecast For The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Pair

The GBP/USDr Pair Can Move Towards A Higher Level

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 12.09.2022 10:16
Trend analysis (Fig. 1). The pound-dollar pair may move upward from the level of 1.1585 (close of Friday's daily candle) to the target of 1.1588, the 23.6% retracement level (yellow dotted line). After testing this level, continued upward movement is possible with the target of 1.1743, the 38.2% retracement level (blue dotted line). Upon reaching this level, the price may move up. Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – up; Fibonacci levels – up; Volumes – up; Candlestick analysis – up; Trend analysis – up; Bollinger bands – down; Weekly chart – up. General conclusion: Today the price may move upward from the level of 1.1585 (close of Friday's daily candle) to the target of 1.1588, the 23.6% retracement level (yellow dotted line). After testing this level, continued upward movement is possible with the target of 1.1743, the 38.2% retracement level (blue dotted line). Upon reaching this level, the price may move up. Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.1585 (close of Friday's daily candle), the price may move upward with the target of 1.1643, the 21-period EMA (thin black line). After testing this level, continued upward move is possible with the target of 1.1743, the 38.2% retracement level (blue dotted line).       Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-13 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321388
The Euro (EUR) Is In A Stable Channel And The Pound (GBP) Has Little Chance Of Falling

What Can Expect From The Major Currency Pairs, Will Be Bullish Or Bearish Trend? (EUR/USD & GBP/USD)

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 12.09.2022 11:11
EUR/USD Higher timeframes The opening of the week took place with some upward gap. Bulls are not in a hurry to complete the corrective rise. Instead, there is hope for its development, as well as a change in daily preferences. To implement these tasks, bulls need to overcome the resistance of the weekly short-term trend (1.0116) and eliminate the daily death cross (1.0116 - 1.0176 - final levels). For bears, the 1.0000–0.9989 zone (psychological level + daily short-term trend) remains as support, while the minimum extremum (0.9864) and the downward trend recovery are still the targets. H4 – H1 As of writing, the main advantage on the lower timeframes is on the bulls' side. The reference points for the upward movement within the day today can be noted at 1.0128 (H4 target) and 1.0168 - 1.0224 (classic pivot points). The key levels of the lower timeframes are now supports, guarding bulls at 1.0050 (central pivot point of the day) and 0.9976 (weekly long-term trend). Consolidation below will change the current balance of power. *** GBP/USD Higher timeframes At the opening of the trading week, an ascending gap of several points is noticeable, as well as the desire of bulls to develop the current corrective movement, formed earlier after testing support at 1.1411 (minimum extremum of 2020). The bulls have already updated last week's high, we can note the resistance levels of the daily cross 1.1737 - 1.1840 - 1.1943 among the reference points, and the weekly short-term trend (1.1848) serves as support in this area. H4 – H1 Bulls currently have the advantage on the lower timeframes. They are now testing the strength of the upper boundary of the H4 cloud (1.1672). Upon breakdown, an upward target will be formed. In addition, the reference points for the rise within the day are now the resistance of the classic pivot points (1.1728 - 1.1810). The key levels form support and are currently located at 1.1575 (central pivot point) and 1.1537 (weekly long-term trend). A breakdown of 1.1575–37 and a reliable consolidation below will change the current balance of power, while the situation would be better to re-evaluate. *** In the technical analysis of the situation, the following are used: higher timeframes – Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) + Fibo Kijun levels H1 - Pivot Points (classic) + Moving Average 120 (weekly long-term trend)         Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-13 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321400
Will The Scenario Of The EUR/USD Pair For A New Impulsive Growth Prove True?

The EUR/USD And The GBP/USD Pairs Will Keep Upward Trend Today?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 12.09.2022 12:00
Details of the economic calendar for September 9 The week ended with an empty macroeconomic calendar. Important statistics in Europe, the United Kingdom, and the United States were not published. Despite the absence of statistical data on Friday, the market continued to show speculative activity. Probably, traders were playing back the decision of the ECB to tighten its own policy. Analysis of trading charts from September 9 The EUR/USD currency pair strengthened its position during the past week. As a result, the quote went above the two-week range of 0.9900/1.0050. The cause and effect of the upward cycle lies in the results of the ECB meeting, released last Thursday. The GBP/USD currency pair gained about 230 points (about 2%) in less than a week. The level of the local low of 2020 (1.1410) serves as a support in the corrective movement. Economic calendar for September 12 At the opening of the European session, data on UK industrial production was published, which slowed down from 2.4% to 1.1%. This is a negative factor for the country's economy, but based on the trading schedule and the market's reaction to statistical indicators, the pound sterling ignores them. Important statistics in Europe and the United States are not expected today. However, it is worth paying attention to the sppeches of the representatives of the ECB. Earlier, interesting statements were already received from representatives of the ECB, which indicate that the regulator should act tougher. Joachim Nagel (ECB): - Inflation in Europe could rise above 10% by December. - The ECB needs to act more aggressively if necessary. - A recession is possible in Europe. Klaas Knot (ECB): - The regulator needs to be more decisive if the situation requires it. - Some economists have already started talking about a 0.75% rate hike in October. Yannis Stournaras (ECB): The ECB has not yet raised the rate to a neutral level. We need to raise it to this level faster. The neutral rate level can be within 1.5%–2%. Trading plan for EUR/USD on September 12 Since the opening of the new trading week, an upward gap of about 60 points has appeared. This price gap brought the quote back to the highs of last week. With the opening of the European session, the upward cycle accelerated, which led to a move above the 1.0150 level. In this situation, a price impulse of more than 100 points in a short period of time can lead to overheating of long positions in short time periods. This may lead to a technical pullback. At the same time, stable price retention above the 1.0150 mark allows for the subsequent formation of a correction for dollar positions. Trading plan for GBP/USD on September 12 There is also an upward gap in the pound, which returned the quote to the high of last week. Subsequently, there was a prolongation of the correction course, where the cycles are similar to the movement of the EURUSD pair. Stable price retention above 1.1650 will eventually lead to an increase in the value of the pound to at least 1.1750. What is shown in the trading charts? A candlestick chart view is graphical rectangles of white and black light, with sticks on top and bottom. When analyzing each candle in detail, you will see its characteristics of a relative period: the opening price, closing price, and maximum and minimum prices. Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a stop or a price reversal may occur. These levels are called support and resistance in the market. Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price of the story unfolded. This color selection indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the quote in the future. The up/down arrows are the reference points of the possible price direction in the future.           Relevance up to 10:00 2022-09-13 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321417
Will The Outlook For The Pound-Dollar (GBP/USD) Currency Pair Be Positive

What Can Bring A Busy Economic Calendar For The British Pound?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 12.09.2022 12:32
He who laughs last, laughs best. The EU managed to prepare by reducing the share of Russian gas imports from 40% before the armed conflict in Ukraine to 9%. The storage facilities are more than 80% full, which makes it possible to survive the cold winter, and Brussels' plans to limit prices make gas futures quotes fall. This was a real breath of fresh air for European currencies. And the pound is no exception. For a long time, the sterling was in disgrace due to the energy crisis, the third prime minister in the last three years and double-digit inflation. In such a situation, investors treated the pound like flies to burnt toast. In fact, the British currency can be a jam for them. Instead of starting her job as head of government with a tax cut announced during the campaign, Liz Truss has prioritized curbing inflation and promised £150bn of fiscal stimulus to households to escape energy poverty, which is a game-changer. The government estimates that the aid package will cut the CPI by five percentage points. Research by Capital Economics shows that consumer prices will peak not in January, as previously expected, but in November. This peak will not be at 14.5% but at 11.5%, which is lower than the Bank of England's forecast of 13%. BoE Actual and Projected UK Inflation Trends However, any fiscal stimulus boosts GDP growth and drives up prices, so the £150bn package from Liz Truss is seen as pro-inflation. Yes, its impact will be manifested later, but the Bank of England must act now to prevent the growth of inflation expectations and fixing the CPI at an elevated level for a long time. As a result, Nomura expects the repo rate to soar to 3.75% in the coming months, NatWest Markets raised its forecast from 2.5% to 3.5%, and JP Morgan sees the 75 bps increase in borrowing costs in September is real. In fact, due to political uncertainty, Andrew Bailey and his colleagues have found themselves in an even worse position than they were. They need to assess the impact of fiscal stimulus from the new government, and the death of the UK's Queen came in handy. BoE announced the postponement of its meeting from September 15 to September 22, that is, it bought time. This week, the pound expects a busy economic calendar, including statistics on foreign trade, GDP, inflation, labor market and retail sales. However, the dynamics of GBPUSD will largely depend on gas prices in Europe and on the reaction of US stock indices to the release of data on the US CPI. Technically, on the GBPUSD daily chart, after the pair reached the previously designated target by 161.8% according to the AB=CD pattern, a natural rebound followed. Rebound from resistances at 1.175–1.177 and 1.182–1.184 should be used for selling.     Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-17 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321406
GBP/USD Pair: A Reversal Signal Will Be The Price Consolidating

It's Going To Be An Interesting Week For UK! ECB Members Are Set To Speak

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 12.09.2022 12:20
At 8:00 CET, Great Britain published a macroeconomic information package. This is the first of many data they will provide us with this week. Moreover, today traders who observe the situation on the euro market are waiting for the speeches of the ECB members. Important information was not received today from overseas. The Great Britain’s indicators U.K. Construction Output is lower than expected. The current reading shows an increase from -1.4% to -0.8%. Growth was expected to be significantly higher. Construction Output was forecast at 0.5%. Source: investing.com The same indicator but YoY, also lower than expected. The current reading is at 4.3%. The index was forecast to reach 5.6%. The previous reading was at 4.1%. This insignificant increase in the index can be read as negative for the GBP as it was lower than expected. GDP and Industrial Production Gross domestic product also fell below expectations. The current reading shows that GDP is at 0.2%, it was expected to rise from -0.6% to 0.3%. Index Of Services remained at the expected level of -0.2%. Compared to the previous reading (-0.4%) this is an increase.The reading of changes in the total inflation-adjusted values of output produced by producers, mines and utilities was also lower than expected. The expectation that U.K. Industrial Production YoY fell from 2.4% to 1.9%, but the index fell lower than forecasted to 1.1%. This is a negative reading for the GBP. Industrial Production (MoM), although it increased from -0.9% to -0.3%, the reading is negative. It was announced that there will be an increase to the level of 0.4%. The change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers only increased to 0.1%. This increase was expected to be at the level of 0.4%. For the country it may be a positive reading, but for the pound it is not as it is lower than expected.   Source: investing.com   Only positive reading The UK today only recorded a positive result in the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. The trade balance in Great Britain reached the level of -19.36B, it was expected to reach the level of -22.30B. Compared to the previous periods, it can be said that in July Britain exported more than it imported. Since March, the UK has imported more, so this result may indicate little progress in the British economy. Source: investing.com Speaking of The Great Britain, we were awaiting UK indicators this week, which I have commented in my Saturday’s article. The speeches of the European Central Bank members Today we are still waiting for the speeches of the representatives of the European Central Bank. At 9:30 CET there will be a speech by the Vice-President, Luis de Guindos. His speeches often contain indications on the future possible direction of monetary policy. The next speech is at 14:00 CET. Isabel Schnabel, member of the Executive Council of the European Central Bank, also in her speeches, now to fill in on the future. India’s CPI The Indian Ministry of Statistics expects today's CPI reading to be at 6.90%. From the beginning of the year, the change in prices of goods and services from the consumer perspective has remained above 6%. From January to April, the index was gradually increasing. In the fourth month of this year, it reached its highest level of 7.79% so far. After this reading, it began to drop. In May it fell to 7.04%, and in the next two months to 7.01% to 6.71%. The trend is forecast to reverse and the CPI to pick up again. We have to wait until 14:00 CET for official data. Source: investing.com Source: https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
The UK Markets Remain Volatile, Possible Contraction Of The Eurozone Economy

It Seems That British Pound (GBP) Trades Higher, But Not On Account Of Its Strength. Has The US Inflation Eventually Peaked?

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 12.09.2022 13:39
GBP/USD has started the trading week with sharp gains.  In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.1678, up 0.80% on the day. Pound soars despite weak UK data It’s a busy economic calendar this week in the UK.  The markets were treated to a data dump today, highlighted by GDP and Manufacturing Production. In July, GDP grew by a modest 0.2% MoM, shy of the estimate of 0.5%, but an improvement from the -0.6% reading in June. Manufacturing Production in July dipped to 1.1% YoY, down from 1.3% in June and missing the estimate of 1.7%. Despite the lukewarm data, the pound has soared, which is clearly a case of US dollar weakness rather than UK strength. The dollar is lower today against the majors, with the exception of the Japanese yen. We could see more volatility from GBP/USD on Tuesday, with the UK releasing employment data and the US publishing the August inflation report. The UK labour market remains robust, one of the few bright lights in a grim economic landscape. Unemployment rolls are expected to continue to drop, and wage growth, which has been moving higher (although much slower than inflation) is forecast to rise to 5.1% in July (3Mo/Yr), up from 4.7% in June. All eyes will be on Tuesday’s US inflation report for August, with the markets expecting CPI to fall to 8.1%, down from 8.5%. This would mark a second straight decline, and would raise speculation that inflation has at last peaked. Following the unexpected drop in July’s inflation release, market exuberance that the Fed would make a U-turn on its aggressive tightening sent the equity markets up and the US dollar sharply. The Fed has stuck to its policy, and the markets appear to have a healthier respect for the Fed’s commitment to remain aggressive, with the market pricing in a 75 basis point hike at the meeting on September 21st. Tuesday’s inflation report will be doubly important, as it marks the final economic release before the September meeting. GBP/USD Technical GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.1689, followed by resistance at 1.1790 There is support and 1.1548 and 1.1447 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. British pound rallies as USD retreats - MarketPulseMarketPulse
What Trend Is Forecast For The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Pair

The GBP/USD Pair Continues Its Move From Monday

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 13.09.2022 08:37
GBP/USD 5M The GBP/USD currency pair also continued its upward movement on Monday, and even managed without a correction in the afternoon. The European Central Bank meeting had nothing to do with the British pound, so we consider the reasons for the pound's growth to be purely technical. The descending trend line has been broken, so we now have an upward trend at our disposal, and the price has broken the important Senkou Span B, which allows the pound to continue moving upward. It is difficult to say how long this movement will last, as it may be another round of technical correction within the global downward trend. So the pound can still fall. There were important statistics for the British currency on Monday. At least reports on GDP and industrial production were published. Their values were such that it was impossible to consider the reports as optimistic. Therefore, the growth of the British currency is definitely not related to these statistics, which further convinces us that the reasons are technical. In regards to trading signals, the situation was worse. The first trading signal to buy was formed in the middle of the upward movement, and the level of 1.1649 and the Senkou Span B line should be considered as a solid area of resistance. Therefore, the first long position could be opened only after the Senkou Span B was overcome. After that, the pair bounced twice more from above this line, each time forming a buy signal. Consequently, traders could open three long positions, but the first two were closed by Stop Loss at breakeven (20 points each time the price went up). Only the third deal allowed traders to earn a couple of dozen points. COT report: The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report on the British pound released yesterday, was very eloquent. During the week, the non-commercial group closed 5,700 long positions and opened 15,500 short positions. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders immediately fell by 21,100, which is a lot for the pound. The net position indicator has been growing for several months, but the mood of the big players still remains pronounced bearish, which is clearly seen in the second indicator in the chart above (purple bars below zero = bearish mood). And now it has begun a new fall, so the British pound still cannot count on a strong growth. How can you count on it if the market sells the pound more than it buys? And now its fall has resumed altogether, so the bearish mood of major players in the near future can only intensify. The non-commercial group now has a total of 103,000 shorts and 52,000 longs open. The difference is twofold. The net position will have to show growth for a long time to at least equalize these figures. Moreover, COT reports are a reflection of the mood of major players, and their mood is influenced by the foundation and geopolitics. If they remain the same as they are now, then the pound may still be in a "downward peak" for some time. We recommend to familiarize yourself with: Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 13. The euro is at a crossroads. Much will depend on inflation reports. Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 13. Liz Truss is the best candidate available, but may prove to be a weak prime minister. Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on September 13. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions. GBP/USD 1H The pound/dollar pair has completed the downward trend on the hourly timeframe and is ready to hit the growth for a while. Traders were not interested in the latest British reports and most likely they will also not be interested on Tuesday. The reasons for the growth of the euro and the pound may be purely technical. We highlight the following important levels on September 13: 1.1411-1.1442, 1.1649, 1.1874. The Senkou Span B (1.1669) and Kijun-sen (1.1559) lines can also be sources of signals. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthroughs" of these levels and lines. The Stop Loss level is recommended to be set to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. The chart also contains support and resistance levels that can be used to take profits on trades. Relatively important data on unemployment, wages and jobless claims will be published in the UK on Tuesday, but the market reaction may be the same as yesterday. That is, none. However, today there will be a report on US inflation and a speech by Bank of England Chairman Andrew Bailey, which will undoubtedly interest traders much more than morning reports. Explanations for the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.         Relevance up to 02:00 2022-09-14 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321479
The Bears Are In Full Control Of The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Market

The Momentum Of The GBP/USD Pairis Strong And Positive

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 13.09.2022 08:54
Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair has been seen continuing the bounce from the level of 1.1410 (7 years low) as the momentum is strong and positive on the H4 time frame chart. The recent local high was made at the level of 1.1723 (at the time of writing the article), so now the local zone located between the levels of 1.1598 - 1.1622 will act as the intraday technical support. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.1717 and 1.1760. Those levels are just under the trend line resistance as well, so needs to be broken, because the larger time frame trend (daily and weekly) remains down until further notice. The levels of 1.1598 and 1.1622 will now act as the intraday technical support. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.16716 WR2 - 1.16430 WR1 - 1.16286 Weekly Pivot - 1.16144 WS1 - 1.16000 WS2 - 1.15858 WS3 - 1.15572 Trading Outlook: The bulls has failed big time to continue the corrective cycle after a big Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made on the weekly time frame. The bears tested the level of 1.1410 (2020 swing low) and now the market is in the pull back mode. In order to terminate the down trend, bulls need to break above the level of 1.2275 (swing high from August 10th).   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-14 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/292490
Will The Outlook For The Pound-Dollar (GBP/USD) Currency Pair Be Positive

Do The Bears Still Have A Chance Of Lowering The GBP/USD Pair?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 13.09.2022 09:45
Several market entry signals were formed yesterday, but not all of them were profitable. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and see what happened. In my morning forecast and advised making decisions on entering the market from it. As a result of the breakthrough at 1.1642, which, to my regret, was left without a reverse downward test, the pound continued to rise and reached the next resistance at 1.1690. Forming a false breakout there resulted in an excellent short entry point, which brought about 25 points of profit on the first move. No matter how the bulls tried to get above this range in the afternoon, nothing worked. Several similar false breakouts at 1.1690 made it possible to get good entry points for selling, but it never came to a particularly large sell-off, everything was limited to movements of 20-25 points. COT report: Before analyzing the technical picture of the pound, let's look at what happened in the futures market. An increase in short positions and a decrease in long ones were recorded in the Commitment of Traders (COT) report for September 6. This once again confirms the fact that the British pound is in a major downward peak, from which it is not as easy to get out as it might seem. Last week, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey made a speech, who did his best to inspire confidence that the central bank will continue to follow the path of defeating inflation and continue to aggressively raise interest rates. This suggests that at its next meeting the committee will probably raise rates by 0.75% at once, following the example of other central banks. However, the UK economy is getting worse and worse, and GDP is shrinking quite quickly, as evidenced by recent reports, which does not give confidence to investors. With high inflation and a looming cost-of-living crisis in the UK, it will be quite difficult for bulls to get room to take long positions as nothing good is in store for the stats ahead. The latest COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions decreased by 5,746 to 52,731, while short non-commercial positions rose by 15,516 to 103,163, which led to an increase in the negative value of the non-commercial net position to -50,423 versus -29 170. The weekly closing price collapsed from 1.1526 against 1.1661. When to go long on GBP/USD: Quite important statistics for the UK will be released today, but like all the others released last week, it can be completely ignored even if the numbers are weak. I advise you to pay attention to reports on the UK unemployment rate, changes in the level of average earnings, as well as changes in the number of applications for unemployment benefits. Of these three measures, earnings will be important, as households continue to lose money when adjusted for inflation and clearly disagree with government policies. Fortunately, there is hope that the new prime minister will put things in order. In case GBP/USD falls in the first half of the day after the reaction to the negative data on the UK, which is quite likely, the best scenario for buying will be a false breakout in the area of the nearest support of 1.1666, formed at the end of yesterday and where the moving averages are, playing on the bulls' side. This will lead to a rebound upwards and a breakthrough to the area of 1.1706, above which it was not possible to break through yesterday. We can only talk about building a further upward correction for the pair after getting above this range. A breakdown of 1.1706, as well as a reverse downward test will open the way to 1.1757. A more distant target will be the area of 1.1793, where I recommend taking profits. If the GBP/USD falls and there are no bulls at 1.1666, and everything goes towards this, the pressure on the pound will increase again. This will force the bulls to leave the market again, as the risk of a return to the bearish trend will become more real. If this happens, I recommend postponing long positions to 1.1631. I advise you to buy there only on a false breakout. You can open long positions on GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from 1.1588, or in the low area of 1.1551, counting on correcting 30-35 points within the day. When to go short on GBP/USD: Protecting the nearest resistance at 1.1706 before the release of statistics on inflation in the US is almost the most important task for today. Whether the weak fundamental reports on the UK will help in this or not is a big question. In case the pair rises, forming a false breakout at 1.1706 will return pressure on the pound and create a sell signal in order to develop a bearish trend and decline to the nearest support at 1.1666, which will not pose as a big threat to bulls. A breakthrough and reverse test from below 1.1666 will provide an entry point for selling with a fall to 1.1631, but a much more interesting target will be the area of 1.1588, where I recommend taking profits. An update in this area can seriously harm the bulls' future plans to build an upward trend. But such a movement will occur only with the next inflationary surge in the United States. In case GBP/USD grows and the bears are not active at 1.1706, then the bulls will be in control of the situation, who will have an excellent chance of returning to 1.1757. Only a false breakout around 1.1757 creates an entry point into short positions, counting on a new downward movement of the pair. If there is no activity there, there may be a surge up to the high of 1.1793. There, I advise you to sell GBP/USD immediately for a rebound, based on a rebound of the pair down by 30-35 points within the day. Indicator signals: Trading is carried out above 30 and 50 moving averages, which leaves a chance for bears to further pull down the pair. Moving averages Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands A breakthrough of the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.1666 will increase pressure on the pair. Surpassing the upper border of the indicator in the area of 1.1706 will lead to a new wave of growth of the pound. Description of indicators Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart. Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart. MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9 Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20 Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-14 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321503
The Euro (EUR) Is In A Stable Channel And The Pound (GBP) Has Little Chance Of Falling

Can Prices Of The EUR/USD And The GBP/USD Pairs Stay Steady?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 13.09.2022 10:10
The only thing investors are worried about right now is the extent of the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve's rate hikes. That was the reason for the noticeable growth of the euro, which, due to its scale, pulled up other currencies as well—firstly, the pound. The reason for this was the words of ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos, who almost directly stated that the refinancing rate will be raised again by 75 basis points at the next board meeting. The reason for such aggressive actions of the European Central Bank is the growing inflation. Most likely, the dollar will continue to lose its positions today. The reason for this will be inflation. According to forecasts, US inflation should slow down from 8.5% to 8.1%. That is, inflation is slowing down for the second month in a row, which gives the Fed a reason to reduce the rate of interest rate growth. So there may be a situation where interest rates are rising quite strongly in Europe but much slower in the United States, if the American regulator does not stop this process at all. Just a few months ago, the situation was diametrically opposite, and it was the Fed that was actively raising the rate, and the ECB was only considering the possibility of tightening monetary policy. And this led to a serious rise in the dollar. Now it is quite possible to talk about a U-turn. Inflation (United States): The EURUSD currency pair locally jumped to 1.0200 during an intense upward movement. This move resulted in overheating of long positions in the short term, resulting in a technical pullback in the market. A stable holding of the price above 1.0150 allows the subsequent growth of the euro with a breakout of 1.0200. The GBPUSD currency pair has a similar dynamics, where the quote has firmly fixed above the level of 1.1650. With the upward mood on the market, a subsequent increase in the value of the pound sterling in the direction of 1.1800 is not excluded, where stagnation/pullback is already possible.   Relevance up to 20:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321509
The Bears Are In Full Control Of The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Market

Could Today's The UK Reports Return The Demand For The Pound?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 13.09.2022 10:24
Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair Pound tested 1.1685 at a time when the MACD line was far from zero, which limited the upside potential of the pair. Sometime later, it tested the level again, but this time the MACD line was moving down, which was a good signal to sell. This resulted to a price decrease, albeit by just 15-20 pips. Important reports on the UK labor amrket will be released today, which may lead to a surge in volatility. For example, better-than-expected unemployment rate and average earnings will return demand for pound, which will lead to a new upward spurt and new highs. If the reports are disappointing, sellers may seize the moment and return to the market before the publication of important US data. That being said, CPI in the US will come out in the afternoon, which, if shows a slowdown and a decrease, will return risk appetite and lead to another rise of GBP/USD to monthly highs. For long positions: Buy pound when the quote reaches 1.1728 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1796 (thicker green line on the chart). Growth will occur if statistics in the UK exceed expectations. Take note that when buying, the MACD line should be above zero or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.1682, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1728 and 1.1796. For short positions: Sell pound when the quote reaches 1.1682 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1603. Pressure will return if US inflation surges again. Take note that when selling, the MACD line should be below zero or is starting to move down from it. Pound can also be sold at 1.1728, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1682 and 1.1603. What's on the chart: The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the GBP/USD pair. The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level. The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the GBP/USD pair. The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level. MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones. Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.       Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-14 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321515
The GBP/USD Pair Was Trading Calmly But The Volatility Still Remained Very High

The GBP/USD Pair: Expected Next Upward Movement Of The Price

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 13.09.2022 10:36
Trend analysis (Fig. 1). The pound-dollar pair may move upward from the level of 1.1678 (close of yesterday's daily candle) to 1.1743, the 38.2% retracement level (blue dotted line). When testing this level, continued upward movement is possible to 1.1848, the 50.0% retracement level (blue dotted line). From this level, the price may move down. Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – up; Fibonacci levels – up; Volumes – up; Candlestick analysis – up; Trend analysis – up; Bollinger bands – down; Weekly chart – up. General conclusion: Today the price may move upward from 1.1678 (close of yesterday's daily candle) to 1.1743, the 38.2% retracement level (blue dotted line). When testing this level, continued upward movement is possible to 1.1848, the 50.0% retracement level (blue dotted line). From this level, the price may move down. Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.1678 (close of yesterday's daily candle), the price may move upward to 1.1743, the 38.2% retracement level (blue dotted line). When testing this level, a downward movement is possible to the historical support level of 1.1643 (blue dotted line). Upon reaching this level, the price may resume upward work to 1.1848, the 50.0% retracement level (blue dotted line).     Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-14 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321523
The Major Currency Pairs On The Forex Market And Their Move Ahead Of Important Decisions

The GBP/USD Pair Is Following The Euro, The Pound Has Received Support In The Market

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 13.09.2022 12:49
Details of the economic calendar for September 12 UK industrial production data showed a slowdown in growth from 2.4% to 1.1%. This is a negative factor for the country's economy, but based on the behavior of the price, the pound ignored the statistical indicators. Speculators focused on the speeches of the representatives of the European Central Bank. Their comments confirmed the "hawkish" forecast regarding further rate hikes. Experts are sure that the ECB intends to raise rates by 75 basis points in October. Based on expectations, the market experienced a sharp rise in the value of the euro. The main theses of the speeches of the ECB representatives: Joachim Nagel, ECB: - The rate increase during the September meeting brought us one step closer to the neutral level—it is necessary to raise rates further; - Inflation is very high—it can reach 10% YoY; - It is possible that the inflation rate will peak in December and will gradually decrease in 2023; - Inflation could reach 6.0% YoY next year. Frank Elderson, ECB: - All members of the ECB intend to return inflation to 2.0% YoY—this is a priority; - The ECB will continue to raise interest rates; - A period of recession is possible but may not be long; - Stable prices are an important medium- and long-term growth factor for good prospects for the EU. Luis de Guindos, ECB: - The 75 basis point rate hike in September was made to reduce inflation expectations; - The ECB should help the EU cope with the energy shock; - Higher interest rates could slow down economic growth; - The regulator must direct all its tools to restore price stability; - No idea where the ECB rate ceiling will be. Analysis of trading charts from September 12 The EUR/USD currency pair strengthened in value by about 300 points from the lows of the downward trend. This movement is classified as corrective, during which the quote locally rose to the area of 1.0200. The GBPUSD currency pair rushed up after the euro. As a result, the corrective move from the local low of 2020 was prolonged, where the British currency strengthened by about 300 points in less than a week. Economic calendar for September 13 At the opening of the European session, data on the UK labor market was published, which came out much better than forecasts. The unemployment rate fell from 3.8% to 3.6%, while forecast assumed the previous level to remain. The negative factor in the report is the increase in the number of claims for unemployment benefits by 6,300, while their reduction is forecast by 13,200. At the same time, employment in the country grew less than the forecast, by only 40,000. Despite the negative factors, the decrease in the unemployment rate in the country covers everything. As a result, the pound sterling received support in the market from buyers. The main event of the day and the whole week is the data on inflation in the United States. Based on the indicators, investors and traders will be guided by the Fed's possible steps during the next meeting. In simple words, a gradual decline in inflation may push the regulator to slow down the rate of increase in the refinancing rate, and this, in turn, will lead to a noticeable weakening of dollar positions. Based on forecasts, inflation in the US may slow down from 8.5% to 8.1%. Time targeting: US Inflation – 12:30 UTC Trading plan for EUR/USD on September 13 In this situation, stable price retention above the level of 1.0150 will eventually lead to a breakdown of the value of 1.0200. This step allows for the subsequent formation of a corrective move that does not violate the integrity of the downward trend. Trading plan for GBP/USD on September 13 In this situation, the upward cycle is still relevant in the market. Therefore, the prolongation of the current corrective move is not excluded, where at first, the price will hold above the level of 1.1750 and then move towards 1.1800–1.1850. What is shown in the trading charts? A candlestick chart view is graphical rectangles of white and black light, with sticks on top and bottom. When analyzing each candle in detail, you will see its characteristics of a relative period: the opening price, closing price, and maximum and minimum prices. Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a stop or a price reversal may occur. These levels are called support and resistance in the market. Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price of the story unfolded. This color selection indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the quote in the future. The up/down arrows are the reference points of the possible price direction in the future.       Relevance up to 10:00 2022-09-14 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321539
The GBP/USD And The EUR/USD Pairs Are Bullish

The GBP/USD And The EUR/USD Pairs Are Bullish

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 13.09.2022 13:28
EUR/USD Higher timeframes Bulls, yesterday, tested the reference points indicated earlier at the boundaries of 1.0116 - 1.0176 (final levels of the daily cross + weekly short-term trend). The liquidation of the daily Ichimoku death cross (1.0176) and the entry into the daily cloud (1.0203) will allow us to build further plans and consider new upward prospects. The levels passed the day before now form a support area, which today can be defined within 1.0057 - 1.0031 - 1.0000. H4 – H1 The bulls keep the main advantage in the lower timeframes. Their next intraday upside targets are now at 1.0194 – 1.0266 – 1.0334 (classic pivot points resistance). Despite the overall advantage, the pair is currently in the correction zone, relying on the support of the target broken yesterday on the breakdown of the H4 cloud (1.0128) and the central pivot point (1.0126). The key support is the weekly long-term trend (1.0019), which is responsible for the current balance of power. Its breakdown and reversal will support a change in priority in the movement. *** GBP/USD Higher timeframes The development of an upward correction continues. The pair approached the first resistance of a fairly wide zone, which is currently located at the boundaries of 1.1737 (daily Fibo Kijun) - 1.1840–48 (daily medium-term trend + weekly short-term trend) - 1.1943 (the final level of the Ichimoku cross in D1). The passage of this zone will significantly change the current balance of power and open up new targets for bulls. Immediate support now is the previous daily short-term trend (1.1568). H4 – H1 The advantage at the moment is on the side of the bulls. In the lower timeframes, they continue the development of the upward movement and test the first resistance of the classic pivot points (1.1729). Their further targets within the day are 1.1778 (R2) – 1.1847 (R3). Key levels today act as supports and are located at 1.1660 (central pivot point) and 1.1570 (weekly long-term trend). The breakdown of key levels can lead to a change in the current balance of power. *** In the technical analysis of the situation, the following are used: higher timeframes – Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) + Fibo Kijun levels H1 - Pivot Points (classic) + Moving Average 120 (weekly long-term trend) Relevance up to 11:00 2022-09-14 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321562
The US Yields And The US Dollar Likely Can Move In The Same Direction

Market Eyes On US CPI Results, Increased Risk Sentiment

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 13.09.2022 13:35
Summary:  An important US CPI release up later today, which could extend the USD weakening move in the short term if we see a soft print, with JPY crosses likely the most sensitive to any jolt the data delivers to US treasury yields. Elsewhere, it is all about market sentiment, which has rushed higher on hopes that Ukrainian battlefield momentum will continue and change the game for the European energy outlook. FX Trading focus: US CPI release and USD picture. AUDNZD in the spotlight. Over the last few days, the US dollar has largely weakened as a function of brightening risk sentiment and hopes that the energy situation might eventually improve for Europe if Ukrainian battlefield successes compound further and prove a gamechanger for the medium term energy outlook for Europe. It’s impossible to predict developments there, but to get a more determined extension higher, we’ll need a steady stream of improvements and something that can bring the prospect of actual deliveries of Russian natural gas through the pipelines. I’m not sure I understand the path in that direction in the near term. That brings us to today’s August US CPI release, which is expected to show headline inflation at -0.1% month-on-month and +8.1% year-on-year, with the more important core “ex Food and Energy” CPI reading expected at +0.3% MoM and +6.1% YoY (vs. +5.9% in July and a cycle peak of ). The core print, especially the month-on-month reading, is far more important than the headline data. Look for a significant reaction on a downside miss even of 0.1%, but the market may get very upset if we get a +0.4% or higher reading. It’s hard to know how the market is positioned for this data point, given that Fed expectations are pinned near the highs of the cycle, while the USD has backed off very sharply and risk sentiment has enjoyed a strong surge. The latter suggests that the surprise side is a hot core inflation reading. Chart: GBPUSDSterling is trading a bit firmer as the currency is the most sensitive to prospects for an improved natural gas delivery outlook, with the markets hopes up on that front due to developments in Ukraine. The UK August payrolls data this morning was stronger than expected and the unemployment dropped to a nearly 50-year low of 3.6% versus expectations for 3.8% expected. And yet, August Jobless Claims posted their first positive reading since early 2021 and are trending very sharply higher. The Bank of England is rapidly seeing expectations repriced for a 75 basis point hike at next Thursday’s meeting, but it’s not fully there yet. Ahead of today’s US CPI release, GBPUSD is trading up close to the first important resistance, the major pivot low in July near 1.1760. The next few sessions should be pivotal for the pair. AUDNZD update as the pair pushes on resistance again. The drumbeat of economic data out of Australia is not particularly encouraging, and the last Australian trade balance saw the surplus shrinking sharply after a string of record levels in recent months. That surplus relative to the new very large external deficits that New Zealand has been running due to its reliance on energy imports is one of the key factors favouring a significant break higher in AUDNZD into a new range above the 1.1250 that has held since 2017 (and on a weekly close basis since 2015, with the highest weekly close since 2013 only slightly above 1.1300). Watching that pair for a change of mentality, as fair price in the very long term perspective looks more like 1.2000+. The Norwegian Regions Survey for August showed the first negative print (-0.16 vs. +0.80 in July) for the expected growth for the next six months since 2009, a fairly remarkable development suggesting that the oil and gas boom has not sufficiently offset concerns for real growth in the country. NOK trades a bit weaker this morning versus the euro and SEK, with NOKSEK only having a bit more than a figure to worth with before suggesting a reversal lower (1.0500 area versus current 1.0620 as of this writing). Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.The USD is leaning lower – does the CPI deliver the coup de grace today? Elsewhere, the weak JPY will be very sensitive to the US treasury market reaction on the back of the CPI, as its weakness is reflection of US treasury yields pinned near the highs for the cycle. Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.USDCAD is trying to turn negative – let’s have a look at the US CPI release today and the close on the day before drawing conclusions. EURUSD flipped positive yesterday and needs to remain above 1.0100 after the US data today to keep the focus higher, perhaps to 1.0350 next. Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights 1000 – US Aug. NFIB Small Business Optimism 1230 – US Aug. CPI 1700 – US 30-year T-bond Auction Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/forex/fx-update-usd-eyes-cpi-europe-eyes-energy-prices-13092022    
The Recovery Of The GBP/USD Pair May Be Temporary, The Trend Remains Bearish

BoE Is More Likely To Hit 75bp Rate Hike As A Result Of UK Jobs Market Data

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 13.09.2022 16:08
GBP/USD is in positive territory today. In the European session, the pound is trading at 1.1731, up 0.42%. GBP/USD continues to take advantage of US dollar weakness and has gained 240 points since Thursday. Inflation has hit a staggering 10.1% and the Bank of England is projecting that inflation may not peak until 13%, with some analysts predicting an even higher peak. The manufacturing, services and construction sectors are either in contraction or stagnation and Brits now have to contend with a new prime minister and a new monarch after the death of Queen Elizabeth. The UK has phased out energy imports from the UK, but the weak EU economy is taking a toll on the UK, as the two are close trading partners. The UK labour market remains robust, one of the few bright lights in a grim economic landscape. Unemployment has fallen to 3.5%, a 50-year low, but wage growth in the three months to July rose 5.5% YoY, up from 5.2%. Employment rose by 40 thousand, down from 160 thousand prior and well below the forecast of 128 thousand. For the Bank of England, the job numbers actually increase the odds of a supersize 75 basis point hike next week, as wage growth continues to rise and the labour market continues to tighten. The BoE, which has failed to show until now that it can curb spiralling inflation, may regain some credibility with a 75bp move. US CPI expected to fall All eyes are on the US inflation report, which will be released later today. The markets could be treated to mixed results – headline inflation is expected to drop to 8.1% (8.5% prior), while core CPI is forecast to rise to 6.1% (5.9% prior). With the Fed intent on remaining aggressive in order to tame inflation, the markets have priced in a 75bp increase at the September 21st meeting. The inflation release should be treated as a market-mover for the US dollar and has additional importance as it is the final key release before the Fed meeting. GBP/USD Technical GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.1790. Above, there is resistance at 1.1931 There is support at 1.1689 and 1.1548 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
The Bears Are In Full Control Of The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Market

The Pound And The Euro Are Traded Very Similarly, Will The GBP/USD Pair Continue To Rise?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 14.09.2022 08:10
The GBP/USD currency pair also continued a fairly confident upward movement during Tuesday. Before the publication of the US inflation report. Unfortunately, as in the case of the euro currency, this growth can be recognized as a banal correction as part of a long-term downward trend since yesterday, the pair collapsed by 200 points. Nevertheless, the downward trend must end sooner or later, and each subsequent upward pullback gives additional chances for completion. It should be noted that the euro and the pound are trading almost identically again, which, from our point of view, somewhat facilitates the forecasting process. Although the September meeting of the ECB has already taken place, and the meeting of the Bank of England has been postponed for a week, both European currencies are moving almost the same. The current moment may be a "turning point" for a long fall in the euro and the pound. The euro currency updated its 20-year lows during this movement, and the pound – 37-year lows. However, we also believe that the market should not stop there, and yesterday's inflation report helped it greatly. Now the pound and the euro currency can resume the global trend and update their multi-year lows several more times. It turns out that one report destroyed all the hopes of the bulls, all the hopes of the euro and the pound, which had just begun to find their fundamental trump cards in the confrontation with the US currency. Also, note that the pound sterling is now falling faster than the European currency. The market did not want to buy the pound in the last few days, but the euro pulled up the British currency. It is strange since it should have been the other way around. After all, the Bank of England has already raised the rate six times in a row. At the last meeting, it raised it by 0.5%, and, most likely, it will also raise it by 0.5% next week. But the ECB has only raised its rate twice. Therefore, the pound should grow stronger and fall less. It would help if you kept in mind the moment that the downward trend may end in the near future, which means you can also count on the long-term growth of the pound. But do not forget that the "bearish" mood could not disappear in a couple of days, and yesterday only confirmed this assumption. The pair is already below the moving average, so it can continue to fall. Commerzbank believes that the pound may resume falling. Meanwhile, many experts continue to voice their skeptical points of view regarding the pound. According to Commerzbank experts, postponing the BA meeting for a week is a positive moment for the regulator, as it will have more time to "digest" the inflation report for August and "make sure that it is not doing enough to slow it down." In the UK, inflation is now the highest among those countries we regularly survey. If inflation in the Kingdom is higher, the regulator should raise the rate more strongly and faster. However, we see that, in comparison with the Fed, the Bank of England is slow. It is this moment that can upset market participants and lead to a new fall in the pound. Commerzbank also notes that the latest GDP report turned out to be weak, but it does not give grounds for the Bank of England not to continue raising the rate. But the unemployment report, which showed its decline to 3.6%, on the contrary, should allow the regulator to tighten monetary policy more confidently or even strengthen its monetary pressure. The bank also admits that the rate may rise immediately by 0.75% in September, although official forecasts indicate an increase of only 0.5%. If the Bank of England surprises and increases the rate more than the market expects, the pound may get a new boost to the growth it needs. The market may believe that the British regulator is doing everything to return inflation to the target level. The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 147 points. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "high." On Wednesday, September 14, thus, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.1389 and 1.1683. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator upwards will signal a possible resumption of the upward movement. Nearest support levels: S1 – 1.1536 S2 – 1.1475 S3 – 1.1414 Nearest resistance levels: R1 – 1.1597 R2 – 1.1658 R3 – 1.1719 Trading Recommendations: The GBP/USD pair has overcome the moving average on the 4-hour timeframe and may begin a new round of downward movement. Therefore, at the moment, sell orders with targets of 1.1475 and 1.1389 should be considered if the price manages to stay below the moving average line. Buy orders should be opened when fixed above the moving average with targets of 1.1683 and 1.1719. Explanations of the illustrations: Linear regression channels – help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, then the trend is strong. Moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) – determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted now. Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections. Volatility levels (red lines) are the likely price channel in which the pair will spend the next day, based on current volatility indicators. The CCI indicator – its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or into the overbought area (above +250) means that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.   Relevance up to 02:00 2022-09-15 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321618
The EUR/USD Pair: All Types Of Backgrounds Remain A Failure For The Euro (EUR)

The GBP/USD Pair: The British Pound Still Can Not Expect Strong Growth

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 14.09.2022 08:48
GBP/USD 5M The GBP/USD currency pair fell sharply by more than 200 points on Tuesday. In principle, everything that we said in the article on the euro/dollar is also true for the British currency. The only difference is that several macroeconomic reports were published in the UK yesterday morning, which could have provoked a slight increase in the pound. However, at the same time, without any statistics, the euro was also growing. Unemployment in the UK, unexpectedly for many, fell to 3.6%, while wages rose by 5.5%. This, of course, is less than the current inflation, but such growth is better than none. Thus, the pound really had every reason to rise yesterday morning. And then it had grounds for a fall, since the seemingly average inflation report in the US disappointed traders so much that they simply rushed to buy the US dollar. Inflation fell less than the market expected, so traders rightly decided that now the Federal Reserve will definitely raise the key rate next week by 0.75%. The question only raises the strength of the market's reaction to US inflation, everything else is quite logical. But there was a problem with trading signals on Tuesday. Not a single signal was formed during the European trading session, and all signals from the US session should have been ignored, since they were formed either during the release of the inflation report, or a little later, when it was still not clear what to expect from the pair, and the price has already passed 200 points down. Thus, trades should not have been opened yesterday. COT report The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report on the British pound released yesterday, was very eloquent. During the week, the non-commercial group closed 5,700 long positions and opened 15,500 short positions. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders immediately fell by 21,100, which is a lot for the pound. The net position indicator has been growing for several months, but the mood of the big players still remains pronounced bearish, which is clearly seen in the second indicator in the chart above (purple bars below zero = bearish mood). And now it has begun a new fall, so the British pound still cannot count on a strong growth. How can you count on it if the market sells the pound more than it buys? And now its fall has resumed altogether, so the bearish mood of major players in the near future can only intensify. The non-commercial group now has a total of 103,000 shorts and 52,000 longs open. The difference is twofold. The net position will have to show growth for a long time to at least equalize these figures. Moreover, COT reports are a reflection of the mood of major players, and their mood is influenced by the foundation and geopolitics. If they remain the same as they are now, then the pound may still be in a "downward peak" for some time. We recommend to familiarize yourself with: Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 14. Joachim Nagel provokes the strengthening of the European currency. Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 14. Market skepticism towards the pound has not gone away, but now is a good time for a global trend reversal. Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on September 14. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions. GBP/USD 1H The pound/dollar pair has now completed an upward trend on the hourly timeframe. At least the price has already consolidated below all Ichimoku indicator lines, and all because of one US inflation report. The pair may now resume its long-term downward trend and renew 37-year lows several more times. We highlight the following important levels on September 14: 1.1411-1.1442, 1.1649, 1.1874. The Senkou Span B (1.1653) and Kijun-sen (1.1569) lines can also be sources of signals. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthroughs" of these levels and lines. The Stop Loss level is recommended to be set to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. The chart also contains support and resistance levels that can be used to take profits on trades. The UK will publish an important inflation report on Wednesday, which may also provoke a strong market reaction. Apart from this report, there are no other important events planned for today. But the market can still work out yesterday's US inflation report at the European trading session. Explanations for the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group. Relevance up to 02:00 2022-09-15 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321614
The Recovery Of The GBP/USD Pair May Be Temporary, The Trend Remains Bearish

GBP/USD Pair: What Level Do The Bulls Have To Break To End The Downtrend

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 14.09.2022 09:56
Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair has made a local high at the level of 1.1737, just 20 pips above the key short-term technical resistance level and then the bounce was capped. The market reversed dynamically and the local zone located between the levels of 1.1598 - 1.1622 had been easily violated. The next target for bears is located at the level of 1.1410 again, which is the 7 years low for the GBP. Please keep an eye on the support level, because any violation of this level will have a very drastic consequences, like an accelerated sell-off towards the next technical support. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.16716 WR2 - 1.16430 WR1 - 1.16286 Weekly Pivot - 1.16144 WS1 - 1.16000 WS2 - 1.15858 WS3 - 1.15572 Trading Outlook: The bulls has failed big time to continue the corrective cycle after a big Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made on the weekly time frame. The bears tested the level of 1.1410 (2020 swing low) and now the market is in the pull back mode. In order to terminate the down trend, bulls need to break above the level of 1.2275 (swing high from August 10th).   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-15 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/292681
The GBP/USD Pair Follows The Trend Of The EUR/USD Pair, Could This Change?

The Pound Is Weak And The GBP/USD Pair Has Reacted To The US Inflation Report

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 14.09.2022 10:42
Only a few market entry signals were formed yesterday. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and see what happened. I paid attention to the 1.1706 level in my morning forecast and advised making decisions on entering the market from it. A breakthrough of 1.1706 and the reverse test from the top down created several good long entry points as the bull market continued to develop. In total, the pound managed to demonstrate growth by only 30 points, after which the pair collapsed due to rising inflation in the United States. I did not wait for the normal entry points in the afternoon. When to go long on GBP/USD: Obviously, the pound continues to experience weakness even despite the stable situation in the labor market, which only accelerates inflationary pressures. Yesterday's US inflation report led to the pound's collapse, which I warned about in my forecast. The apparent rise in the US consumer price index will force the Federal Reserve to continue to act aggressively by raising interest rates - September's increase of 0.75% at once is already a done deal. It is very important how the committee will show itself further and what plans will be outlined for the pace of raising interest rates in the US until the end of the year. An equally important inflation report in the UK is expected today, which could put even more pressure on the pound, as its growth will force the Bank of England to raise interest rates, pushing the economy even further into recession. For this reason, I advise bulls to focus on the immediate resistance at 1.1509, formed on yesterday's basis. I do not count on this level much, but in case GBP/USD falls in the morning, forming a false breakout at 1.1509 will provide a signal to buy the pound against the bearish market with the goal of recovering to 1.1561. A breakthrough and test from top to bottom of this range may pull stop orders of speculative bears, which creates a new buy signal with growth to a more distant level of 1.1604, where moving averages play on the bears' side. The farthest target will be the area of 1.1660, where I recommend taking profits. In case the GBP/USD falls and there are no bulls at 1.1509, the pressure on the pair will return, which will open up the prospect of updating the September low. In this case, I advise you to postpone long positions until the next support at 1.1463. I recommend opening longs on GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from 1.1406, or even lower - around 1.1358, counting on correcting 30-35 points within the day. When to go short on GBP/USD: The bears have regained control of the market and now it is very important to cling to the nearest support at 1.1509, and also not to release the pair above 1.1561. The optimal scenario for opening short positions on GBP/USD would be forming a false breakout in the area of 1.1561, growth to which may occur after the release of a number of fundamental statistics on the UK. Only this will lead to a sell signal with the goal of returning to the area of 1.1509 - an intermediate support level formed yesterday. In order to keep the initiative, the bears need a breakdown and a reverse test of this range, which will provide a new entry point for shorts with a fall to the level of 1.1463. The farthest target will be the area of 1.1406, where I recommend taking profits. In case GBP/USD grows and the bears are not active at 1.1561, the growth of the pound may intensify, which creates a chance for an upward correction. Only a false breakout near the next resistance at 1.1604 will provide an entry point to shorts with the goal of a slight downward movement of the pair. If there is no activity there, I advise you to sell GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from 1.1660, counting on the pair's rebound down by 30-35 points within the day. COT report: An increase in short positions and a decrease in long ones were recorded in the Commitment of Traders (COT) report for September 6. This once again confirms the fact that the British pound is in a major downward peak, from which it is not as easy to get out as it might seem. Last week, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey made a speech, who did his best to inspire confidence that the central bank will continue to follow the path of defeating inflation and continue to aggressively raise interest rates. This suggests that at its next meeting the committee will probably raise rates by 0.75% at once, following the example of other central banks. However, the UK economy is getting worse and worse, and GDP is shrinking quite quickly, as evidenced by recent reports, which does not give confidence to investors. With high inflation and a looming cost-of-living crisis in the UK, it will be quite difficult for bulls to get room to take long positions as nothing good is in store for the stats ahead. The latest COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions decreased by 5,746 to 52,731, while short non-commercial positions rose by 15,516 to 103,163, which led to an increase in the negative value of the non-commercial net position to -50,423 versus -29 170. The weekly closing price collapsed from 1.1526 against 1.1661. Indicator signals: Trading is below the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating a resumption of the bear market. Moving averages Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands In case the pair falls, the lower border of the indicator around 1.1410 will act as support. In case of growth, the upper border of the indicator around 1.1604 will act as resistance. Description of indicators Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart. Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart. MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9 Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20 Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders. Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-15 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321634
What Trend Is Forecast For The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Pair

GBP/USD Pair: The Pressure On The Pound To US Dollar Pair Returns And Falls Again

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 14.09.2022 11:25
Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair Pound tested 1.1728 at a time when the MACD line was far from zero, which limited the upside potential of the pair. Sometime later, it tested 1.1682, but this time the MACD line was just starting to move below zero, which was a good signal to sell. This resulted to a price decrease of more than more than 160 pips. GBP/USD rose on Tuesday morning, thanks to the strong report on the UK labor market. However, the situation reversed in the afternoon, immediately after the release of latest US statistics. Data on the UK consumer price index will be released today, and this could seriously affect the direction of pound in the market. Most likely, a further rise in inflation will result in further pressure in GBP/USD, which will lead to a new fall and return to monthly lows. The report on the UK house price index will be of little interest. In the afternoon, the US will release data on producer prices, which will likely be worse than expected. This will result in a new wave of decline in the pair. For long positions: Buy pound when the quote reaches 1.1533 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1582 (thicker green line on the chart). However, there is little chance for growth today, even in the event of a decrease in inflation in the UK. Take note that when buying, the MACD line should be above zero or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.1488, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1533 and 1.1582. For short positions: Sell pound when the quote reaches 1.1488 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1411. Pressure is likely to continue after the inflation reports in the UK and the US. Take note that when selling, the MACD line should be below zero or is starting to move down from it. Pound can also be sold at 1.1533, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1488 and 1.1411. What's on the chart: The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the GBP/USD pair. The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level. The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the GBP/USD pair. The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level. MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones. Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-15 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321642
The GBP/JPY Pair Is In Downward Trend, The Bank Of Japan Lags Behind Other Major Central Banks

GBP/USD Pair: Further Upward Movement Is Possible While Testing The Level

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 14.09.2022 11:39
Trend analysis (Fig. 1). The pound-dollar pair may move upward from the level of 1.1489 (close of yesterday's daily candle) to 1.1614, the 23.6% retracement level (blue dotted line). When testing this level, continued upward movement is possible to 1.1743, the 38.2% retracement level (blue dotted line). In the case of testing this level, the price may move downwards with the target of 1.1687, the 14.6% retracement level (yellow dotted line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – up; Fibonacci levels – up; Volumes – up; Candlestick analysis – up; Trend analysis – up; Weekly chart – up; Bollinger bands – down. General conclusion: Today the price may move upward from the level of 1.1489 (close of yesterday's daily candle) to 1.1614, the 23.6% retracement level (blue dotted line). When testing this level, continued upward movement is possible to 1.1743, the 38.2% retracement level (blue dotted line). In the case of testing this level, the price may move downwards with the target of 1.1687, the 14.6% retracement level (yellow dotted line). Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.1489 (close of yesterday's daily candle), the price may move upward to 1.1534, the 14.6% retracement level (blue dotted line). In the case of testing this level, a downward movement is possible with the target of 1.1404, the lower fractal (yellow dotted line). When testing this level, the price may move up. Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-15 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321636
The Euro (EUR) Is In A Stable Channel And The Pound (GBP) Has Little Chance Of Falling

Will The Bears Regain Their Dominance In The EUR/USD And The GBP/USD?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 14.09.2022 11:44
EUR/USD Higher timeframes Testing of the weekly trend line and the reinforced resistance zone turned into a rebound formation yesterday. Bears regained their positions, recovering most of the current corrective rise. If the mood persists and the bearish sentiment continues to strengthen, then the bears, updating the minimum extremum (0.9864), will try to restore the downward trend. The attraction is currently exerted by the area of the psychological level of 1.0000. The most important resistance is still the zone 1.0116 – 1.0176 – 1.0203 (daily cross + lower border of the daily cloud + weekly short-term trend + trend line). H4 – H1 Bulls lost their advantage yesterday as the opponent managed to organize a decline below the key levels of the lower timeframes. Key levels are holding the line today, consolidating around 1.0040 (central pivot point + weekly long-term trend). Reference points for further decline within the day are now at 0.9894 – 0.9819 – 0.9673 (classic pivot points). *** GBP/USD Higher timeframes Bears dominated the market yesterday. They realized a rebound upon meeting the daily resistance (1.1737). After that, the main task for the bears is to break through the historical support (1.1411) and restore the downward trend. Next, the focus will be on lowering and testing the psychological barrier of 1.0000. If there is a slowdown now, the daily short-term trend (1.1570) may become the center of attraction and consolidation. H4 – H1 As a result of the pair's return to the key levels, the advantage of the lower timeframes again shifted to the side of the bears. Today, the key levels are resistances and are located at the turn of 1.1573 (central pivot point + weekly long-term trend). The reference points for continuing the decline within the day are the support of the classic pivot points at 1.1405 – 1.1322 – 1.1156. *** In the technical analysis of the situation, the following are used: higher timeframes – Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) + Fibo Kijun levels H1 - Pivot Points (classic) + Moving Average 120 (weekly long-term trend)       Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-15 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321644
Podcast: US Dollar (USD) Keeps Rising | A look At The 10-year US Treasury

As A Result Of The Fight Against Inflation, The Appetite For Risk Has Decreased

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 14.09.2022 11:59
Euro and pound collapsed as inflationary pressure in the US jumped again. Risk appetite noticeably fell because the Federal Reserve is likely to continue its aggressive increase of interest rates in order to curb inflation. This may occur as early as next week, during the September meeting of the central bank. In fact, in the most recent speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, another 75 basis point rate hike is said to be possible, following the increases in June and July. He said the decision will depend on the data collected. Chicago Fed chief Charles Evans, who in the past has been dovish, also noted that a soft landing could be achieved for the economy without triggering a recession. He reasoned that unemployment is now 3.7%, so the central bank will be able to meet the targets and keep it at about 4.5% by the time the fight against high inflation is finished. He added that the danger of excessive tightening of policy will increase only when rates reach 3.5%. Of course, rising inflation is not only a concern for the Federal Reserve, but also for the Biden administration as his Democratic Party moves closer to the midterm congressional elections. High gas and food prices earlier in the year have seriously undermined the president's popularity and the Democrats' prospects for maintaining control of Congress. Talking about the forex market, a collapse was seen in EUR/USD, which forces buyers to cling to 1.0010. Only its breakdown will lead to a rise towards 1.0040 and 1.0090, or to 1.0120. In case of a further decline, sellers will become more active in the market, which will result in a price decrease towards 0.9880 and 0.9810. In terms of GBP/USD, quotes fell below the 15th figure, indicating the sellers'persistence to return to the September lows. Only the return to 1.1560 will prompt a rebound towards 1.1610 and 1.1660, or possibly 1.1720. If pressure continues, the pair will drop below 1.1460 and head towards 1.1405.     Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-15 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321656
Forex: Finally Bank Of Japan (BoJ) Intervened! Euro: Could Today's Speeches Support Euro?

Forex: Could GBP/USD Fall Below 1.05? US Dollar (USD) May Gain 5%

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 14.09.2022 13:07
Yesterday we wondered whether the dollar retreat was a correction or a reversal. But the reaction of the financial markets to the US inflation report has put everything in its place by confirming that we are still in a bull market for the dollar. Very often, though not always, this means a bear market for equities. The Dollar Index's corrective pullback from the extremes over the past week allowed players to accumulate liquidity for a new strike, which did not take long to come. Dollar bulls took advantage of a rather average occasion - a slowdown in inflation to 8.3% instead of the expected 8.1% - to cause the DXY to strengthen by almost two per cent – the strongest one-day move since March 2020. Similarly, the stock market crash recalled the worst moments for the market at the start of the pandemic. That said, the inflation surprise (difference between fact and expectation) was not the most significant during this time. The money markets have shifted markedly in their expectations for next week's rate hike, laying down a 100% chance of a 75-point increase and a 34% chance of a 100-point rise at once. The previous day, we talked about less than 90% for 75 points and 0% for 100 points. However, an even bigger shock to expectations in July did not cause commensurate market turbulence. EURUSD reversed below this line with a decisive move In our view, yesterday's move was purely technical. The dollar bulls proved that they hold control of the market, protecting the DXY from any severe test of the 50-day moving average. This was most telling in the EURUSD, which reversed below this line with a decisive move. Usually, such strong moves at key levels will break the resistance of the second side for a long time. In other words, we could now see more of a dollar march in the coming days and weeks with the potential for a renewal of the DXY global highs. A further rise in the dollar could deprive the EURUSD of support near parity, sending it in search of a bottom lower in the area of 0.95-0.96. We have seen quite a few reversals and accelerations in this area throughout the synthetic euro's existence. GBP/USD Reaching 1985 Lows? The GBPUSD would then risk a renewal of the lows from 1985, going down to 1.1000. For now, we consider a move below that year's low (below 1.05) in an unlikely extreme scenario. For the USDJPY, the road to 150 seems to be opening up. However, we are cautiously looking at the potential for further gains. There are now reports that the Bank of Japan is preparing for currency interventions. Generally speaking, the currency market values the dollar extremely highly, which could trigger a weakly controlled domino effect in the markets, which is hardly in the interest of the financial and monetary watchdogs. Simply put, the dollar could easily add around 5% to current levels in the coming days and weeks. Still, one has to watch the rhetoric of the G7 authorities at the abovementioned levels very closely.
The Weakening Of Confidence In The British Government| Oil Prices Extended Gains And More

British Pound (GBP): Let's See What Is The Expected Variant?

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 14.09.2022 20:54
It has been a busy week for the British pound. GBP/USD has climbed 0.66% today and is trading at 1.1566. This follows the pound’s huge decline on Tuesday, as the US dollar pummelled the major currencies after a weaker-than-expected inflation report shocked the financial markets. The US dollar, which has looked mediocre recently, received a welcome shot in the arm after the July inflation report. The dollar steamrolled most of the major after the inflation data, and GBP/USD declined by 1.62%. Investors were not pleased with the report, as equity markets slumped and the US dollar rose sharply. Headline inflation dropped from 8.5% to 8.3%, but missed the consensus of 8.1%. Core CPI rose to 6.3%, up from 5.9% and above the forecast of 6.1%. The markets had priced in a 75bp increase in September followed by 50bp in November and 25bp in December. However, with inflation higher than expected, the Fed may need to remain more aggressive than expected. Market pricing for the September meeting is fluctuating – currently, there is a 68% chance of a 75bp move and a 32% likelihood of a massive 100bp increase. Just a few days ago, a “modest” 50bp hike was a strong possibility, but it is apparently off the table after the inflation report. UK inflation dips below 10% UK inflation eased slightly in August to 9.9%, down from the 40-year high of 10.1% in July and a notch lower than the 10.0% estimate. The drop in headline reading was due to a decline in fuel prices. Core inflation rose to 6.3%, up from 6.2% prior. Inflation remains very high and the markets are expecting the BoE to come out swinging with a 75bp increase at the September 22nd meeting, just a day after the Federal Reserve meets. The BoE has projected that inflation will not peak before hitting 13%, which means that the new Truss government has its work cut out as it grapples with the severe cost of living crisis in the UK. GBP/USD Technical GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.1548. Above, there is resistance at 1.1689 There is support at 1.1417 and 1.1306 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Sterling climbs as UK inflation eases - MarketPulseMarketPulse
The Bears Are In Full Control Of The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Market

High Correlation Between The Pound And The Euro, Traders Expect The GBP/USD Pair To Fall Or Rise

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 15.09.2022 08:17
The GBP/USD currency pair lost more than 200 points on Tuesday, and on Wednesday, it managed to adjust only slightly. As in the case of the euro currency, the probability of further decline/growth of the pair is now 50-50. Both pairs show a high correlation with each other, so there is no doubt that if the euro falls, the pound will also fall. The pound sterling is now just about a hundred points away from its 37-year lows. The growth that we have seen recently could be the beginning of a new upward trend, but it does not seem to be it. Currently, the pair is below the moving average, and the market does not know what to do with the euro, pound, and dollar now. On the one hand, it is dangerous to continue selling at 37-year lows. On the other hand, all attention has shifted again to the Fed and the fact that the regulator may continue aggressively raising the key rate. And this fact, we recall, is one of the key factors in the fall of the British currency over the past 6–8 months. The market was not interested in raising the Bank of England's rate but in raising the Fed rate. The divergence between them remains, but it is not as strong as in the case of the ECB. Nevertheless, the pound has been showing an equally strong decline in recent months, which is why we believe that the markets rely on the Fed's monetary policy for 60% of their decision-making. As in the case of the euro currency, we recommend that you carefully monitor the technical picture now since a flat, a "swing," a new attempt at growth, and a new strong fall are now possible. Thus, it would help if you were extremely careful when opening positions. British inflation has slowed for the first time in a year and a half. So, the British consumer price index fell by 9.9% in August. The decrease was 0.2% compared to the previous month. Thus, it may be a simple accident. Recall that inflation in the UK began to rise in March 2021. That is, it has been growing for a year and a half. During this time, it grew from 0.4% y/y to 10.1% y/y. The tendency to grow, as they say, on the face. No one denies that sooner or later, a slowdown in price growth will begin in the UK, but 0.2% is too little to exclude the random factor. The Bank of England's rate has risen to 1.75%, and the British regulator is raising it more slowly than the Fed. Therefore, based on this factor, more probability is given to the new dollar growth. But at the same time, if earlier the difference between the rates was visible per kilometer, there are still certain movements to bring the rates closer. Unfortunately, the US inflation report means that the US rate will rise by another 0.75% next week. And maybe by a whole 1.00%! The Bank of England will not be able to provide the same monetary tightening. Therefore, if we start only from the factors of monetary policy, then we would say that the euro and the pound have excellent chances to continue their decline. Moreover, as we have all seen, the slowdown in inflation in Britain did not provoke a serious market reaction. And it did not provoke it because the market understands that the slowdown should have the essence of a trend and not a one-time character. Moreover, since inflation has started to slow down, the Bank of England may raise the rate next week by only 0.5%, which is a significant tightening. There is no hope for 0.75% or more. Consequently, the BA and Fed rate gap will increase again. Consequently, the US dollar may move into growth again. And the pound sterling can drag the euro currency down since these pairs like to trade identically. A quick return to the area above the moving average can bring the bulls back to the market and assure them that the bears are not as strong as they seem. But when a pair falls by 200 points in one report, it says a lot. And, first of all, about the power of bears. The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 146 points. This value is "high" for the pound/dollar pair. On Thursday, September 15, thus, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.1416 and 1.1709. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards signals the resumption of the downward movement. Nearest support levels: S1 – 1.1536 S2 – 1.1475 S3 – 1.1414 Nearest resistance levels: R1 – 1.1597 R2 – 1.1658 R3 – 1.1719 Trading Recommendations: The GBP/USD pair has overcome the moving average on the 4-hour timeframe and may begin a new round of downward movement. Therefore, at the moment, sell orders with targets of 1.1475 and 1.1414 should be considered if the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. Buy orders should be opened when fixed above the moving average with targets of 1.1658 and 1.1709. Explanations of the illustrations: Linear regression channels – help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, then the trend is strong. Moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) – determines the short-term trend and the direction in which to trade now. Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections. Volatility levels (red lines) are the likely price channel in which the pair will spend the next day, based on current volatility indicators. The CCI indicator – its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or into the overbought area (above +250) means that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.     Relevance up to 02:00 2022-09-16 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321746
The GBP/JPY Pair Is In Downward Trend, The Bank Of Japan Lags Behind Other Major Central Banks

The Price Of The GBP/USD Pair May Return To Downward Trend

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 15.09.2022 08:40
Yesterday, the pound gained 48 points. The price is winding up with a wavy line to the level of 1.1525, which started in the final days of August. Consolidation below the level opens the nearest target at 1.1385, then 1.1305. Most likely, the strong movement on the 13th was the start of a new phase of the medium-term decline. The pair's vigorous growth from yesterday was associated with the release of inflation data, which showed a slight weakening. In particular, the overall August CPI fell from 10.1% y/y to 9.9% y/y, which significantly softened the gloomy expectations of a "hard landing" of the British economy. Today, the main news will be the release of US data on retail sales for August. Growth by 0.2% is expected against 0.0% in July. It is likely that good data will strengthen the dollar throughout the market. The price lingers above the MACD indicator line on the four-hour chart. However, the situation is more downward, as the price has not gone above the balance line, which indicates the development of yesterday's growth as a correction, and the Marlin Oscillator is kept in the downward trend zone. The final confirmation of the price's return to the downward medium-term channel will be its departure under yesterday's low (1.1480). Relevance up to 04:00 2022-09-16 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321750
Will The Outlook For The Pound-Dollar (GBP/USD) Currency Pair Be Positive

The GBP/USD Pair Could Be Considered An Opportunity To Sell

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 15.09.2022 08:52
Early in the European session, the British pound is trading at around 1.1533, below the 21 SMA located at 1.1597 and supported by 2/8 Murray located at 1.1474. Investors believe that the Bank of England will raise its official interest rate by 0.75% on September 22 in light of yesterday's inflation data. An increase in the interest rate expected by analysts could offer a rebound in the British pound and it could reach the area of 200 EMA located at 1.1790. It could even reach 5/8 Murray at 1.1840. On the 4-hour chart, we can see that the British pound is trading within an uptrend channel which has been in progress since September 6th. Yesterday in the American session, we could see that the pound reached the bottom of the uptrend channel and the top of the bearish channel formed on August 15. The GBP/USD price is trading above the 2/8 Murray support which could offer a buying opportunity. In case it consolidates above 1.1474, it will be viewed as a buying opportunity. If the pound rebounds around 1.1500 in the next few hours, it is a good sign to buy with targets at 1.1597 (21 SMA). Additionally, if the pound manages to return above 3/8 Murray, it will be a positive sign. The trading instrument is likely to resume the bullish cycle and could reach 4/8 Murray at 1.1718 and could even reach the 200 EMA located at 1.1775. On the contrary, if in the next hours the pound closes and consolidates below 2/8 Murray around 1.1474, it is expected to fall towards the critical support of 1/8 Murray located at 1.1352. The outlook for the pound remains negative as investors expect the Fed to raise its interest rate next week. As a result, the pound is expected to continue trading in a range zone between 1.1455 - 1.1606 in the coming days. The eagle indicator reached extremely overbought levels on September 12. After this signal, we saw a sharp drop in the GBP/USD pair and it fell to cover the gap at 1.1580. The slight recovery of the GBP/USD pair could be considered an opportunity to sell only if it consolidates below 1.16 (21 SMA). Our trading plan for the next few hours is to buy the British pound above the psychological level of 1.1500 with targets at 1.1597 and 1.1718.   Relevance up to 06:00 2022-09-18 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/292846
The GBP/USD Pair Follows The Trend Of The EUR/USD Pair, Could This Change?

The GBP/USD Pair Follows The Trend Of The EUR/USD Pair, Could This Change?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 15.09.2022 09:06
GBP/USD 5M The GBP/USD currency pair traded as sluggishly as the EUR/USD pair on Wednesday. However, it should be noted that, unlike the euro, the pound had reason to show interesting movements. The UK inflation report for August was published in the morning, which, from our point of view, was much more unexpected than the US inflation report a day earlier. The British consumer price index fell from 10.1% to 9.9%, when everyone expected it to rise to the level of 10.6%. Everyone remembers that the Bank of England sets the maximum inflation rate for the next year and a half at 13-15%. Thus, an unexpected decline, of course, can be a banal accident, but the market practically did not react to this positive moment. Unless, of course, we do not consider the pound's decline by 25 points as a "reaction". This was followed by an upward reversal of the pair and for the rest of the day there was already an upward movement. By the end of the day, the pair was near the Ichimoku Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B indicator lines. Now the British currency's succeeding attempts will depend on whether it overcomes these lines or not. A rebound from any of them will provoke a new fall in the pound/dollar pair, which will now be more logical. In regards to trading signals, things were as simple as possible - there were none. The pair did not even approach any level or line. The quotes rose to the critical line only in the evening, but never worked it out. Therefore, trade deals should not have been opened on Wednesday. COT report: The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report on the British pound, was very eloquent. During the week, the non-commercial group closed 5,700 long positions and opened 15,500 short positions. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders immediately fell by 21,100, which is a lot for the pound. The net position indicator has been growing for several months, but the mood of the big players still remains pronounced bearish, which is clearly seen in the second indicator in the chart above (purple bars below zero = bearish mood). And now it has begun a new fall, so the British pound still cannot count on a strong growth. How can you count on it if the market sells the pound more than it buys? And now its fall has resumed altogether, so the bearish mood of major players in the near future can only intensify. The non-commercial group now has a total of 103,000 shorts and 52,000 longs open. The difference is twofold. The net position will have to show growth for a long time to at least equalize these figures. Moreover, COT reports are a reflection of the mood of major players, and their mood is influenced by the foundation and geopolitics. If they remain the same as they are now, then the pound may still be in a "downward peak" for some time. We recommend to familiarize yourself with: Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 15. The strengthening of the ECB's monetary mood no longer worries anyone. The Fed is once again occupying the minds of traders. Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 15. British inflation brought an unexpected, but expected, "surprise". Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on September 15. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions. GBP/USD 1H The pound/dollar pair has now completed an upward trend on the hourly timeframe. At least the price has already consolidated below all Ichimoku indicator lines, and all because of one US inflation report. The pair may now resume its long-term downward trend and renew 37-year lows several more times. The main thing for the bears now is to stay below the Senkou Span B line. In this case, the road to the downside will be open. We identify the following important levels on September 15: 1.1411-1.1442, 1.1649, 1.1760, 1.1874. The Senkou Span B (1.1581) and Kijun-sen (1.1599) lines can also be sources of signals. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthroughs" of these levels and lines. The Stop Loss level is recommended to be set to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. The chart also contains support and resistance levels that can be used to take profits on trades. There will finally be a slight lull in the UK on Thursday. Meanwhile, there are three minor reports in America, the reaction to each of which can be 20-30 points, hardly more. Thus, today the pound/dollar pair can continue to trade quite calmly. Explanations for the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.       Relevance up to 02:00 2022-09-16 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321742
What Trend Is Forecast For The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Pair

The Market Of The Pound To US Dollar Pair Is In The Pull Back Mode

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 15.09.2022 09:41
Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair had reversed dynamically from the level of 1.1739 and the local demand zone located between the levels of 1.1598 - 1.1622 had been easily violated. For now the volatility is subdued, because the market participants await the Bank of England interest rate decision scheduled for release at 3:00 PM today. The next target for bears is located at the level of 1.1410 again, which is the 7 years low for the GBP. Please keep an eye on the support level, because any violation of this level will have a very drastic consequences, like an accelerated sell-off towards the next technical support. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.16716 WR2 - 1.16430 WR1 - 1.16286 Weekly Pivot - 1.16144 WS1 - 1.16000 WS2 - 1.15858 WS3 - 1.15572 Trading Outlook: The bulls has failed big time to continue the corrective cycle after a big Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made on the weekly time frame. The bears tested the level of 1.1410 (2020 swing low) and now the market is in the pull back mode. In order to terminate the down trend, bulls need to break above the level of 1.2275 (swing high from August 10th).   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-16 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/292866
Yesterday The British Pound (GBP) Showed Strong Growth, Can We Expect That Also Today?

The GBP/USD Pair: Will The Pair Move As Indicated By The Forecasts?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 15.09.2022 11:30
Several good market entry signals were formed yesterday. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and see what happened. I paid attention to the 1.1509 level and the 1.1561 level in my morning forecast and advised making decisions on entering the market. As a result of a breakthrough of 1.1509 and a reverse downward test, a good signal was formed in continuation of the bear market, but alas, the pair did not fall further. The latest data on UK inflation pushed the pound to rise closer to the middle of the day, after which the bears defended 1.1561, which formed a sell signal. As a result, the downward movement was about 30 points. The bears also defended the new resistance at 1.1567 several times in the afternoon, which provided excellent market entry points. When to go long on GBP/USD: Slower inflation in the UK made it possible for the British pound to slightly correct yesterday, but the fact that it is at a double-digit level will not allow us to expect that the Bank of England will abandon its overly aggressive monetary policy in the near future, which in the current environment creates quite serious problems for the economy and puts pressure on the pound. For this reason, I advise you not to rush into long positions. Taking into account that there are no fundamental statistics on the UK today, the most convenient scenario for opening longs will be a false breakout in the area of the nearest support at 1.1495, formed on the basis of yesterday. In this case, the goal to recovery will be 1.1543, where the moving averages are, playing on the bears' side. A breakthrough and test of this range could pull speculators' stops in its wake, creating a new buy signal on the rise to the more distant 1.1585 level, allowing the bulls to stop the bear market and move trading into a horizontal channel. The farthest target will be the area of 1.1631, where I recommend taking profits. In case the GBP/USD falls and there are no bulls at 1.1495, the pair will be under pressure again, which will open up the prospect of updating the September low. In this case, I advise you to postpone longs until the next support at 1.1452. I recommend opening longs on GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from 1.1406, or even lower - around 1.1358, counting on correcting 30-35 points within the day. When to go short on GBP/USD: The bears have regained control of the market and now it is very important to cling to the nearest support at 1.1495. But you also need to think about how not to release the pair above 1.1543, where the moving averages are located - if you miss this level, you can quickly lose the initiative. The optimal scenario for opening short positions on GBP/USD would be forming a false breakout in the area of 1.1543, the growth to which may occur in the first half of the day, by analogy with yesterday. This will lead to a sell signal with the goal of returning to the 1.1495 area. In order to seriously declare themselves and build a new bear market, bears need a breakdown and test of 1.1495, which will provide a good entry point for shorts with a fall to the level of 1.1452. The farthest target will be the area of 1.1406, where I recommend taking profits. In case GBP/USD grows and the bears are not active at 1.1543, the pound could sharply rise, which creates a chance for an upward correction. Only a false breakout near the next resistance at 1.1585 will provide an entry point to short positions, hoping that the pair moves downward. If traders are not active there, I advise you to sell GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from 1.1631, counting on the pair's rebound down by 30-35 points within the day. COT report: An increase in short positions and a decrease in long ones were recorded in the Commitment of Traders (COT) report for September 6. This once again confirms the fact that the British pound is in a major downward peak, from which it is not as easy to get out as it might seem. Last week, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey made a speech, who did his best to inspire confidence that the central bank will continue to follow the path of defeating inflation and continue to aggressively raise interest rates. This suggests that at its next meeting the committee will probably raise rates by 0.75% at once, following the example of other central banks. However, the UK economy is getting worse and worse, and GDP is shrinking quite quickly, as evidenced by recent reports, which does not give confidence to investors. With high inflation and a looming cost-of-living crisis in the UK, it will be quite difficult for bulls to get room to take long positions as nothing good is in store for the stats ahead. The latest COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions decreased by 5,746 to 52,731, while short non-commercial positions rose by 15,516 to 103,163, which led to an increase in the negative value of the non-commercial net position to -50,423 versus -29,170. The weekly closing price collapsed from 1.1526 against 1.1661. Indicator signals: Trading is below the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating a resumption of the bear market. Moving averages Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands In case the pair falls, the lower border of the indicator around 1.1510 will act as support. In case of growth, the upper border of the indicator around 1.1570 will act as resistance. Description of indicators Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart. Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart. MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9 Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20 Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-16 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321772
The GBP/JPY Pair Is In Downward Trend, The Bank Of Japan Lags Behind Other Major Central Banks

The Pound To The US Dollar Pair May Move Downward Today

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 15.09.2022 11:55
Trend analysis (Fig. 1). The pound-dollar pair may move downward from the level of 1.1535 (close of yesterday's daily candle) to the target at 1.1482, the 76.4% retracement level (yellow dotted line). When testing this level, an upward movement is possible with the target of 1.1613, the 23.6% retracement level (blue dotted line). Upon reaching this level, the price may continue to move up. Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – down; Fibonacci levels – down; Volumes – up; Candlestick analysis – down; Trend analysis – up; Bollinger bands – down; Weekly chart – up. General conclusion: Today, the price may move downward from the level of 1.1535 (close of yesterday's daily candle) to the target at 1.1482, the 76.4% retracement level (yellow dotted line). When testing this level, an upward movement is possible with the target of 1.1613, the 23.6% retracement level (blue dotted line). Upon reaching this level, the price may continue to move up. Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.1535 (close of yesterday's daily candle), the price may move downward with the target of 1.1453, the 85.4% retracement level (yellow dotted line). When testing this level, an upward movement is possible.   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-16 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321788
The Bears Are In Full Control Of The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Market

The GBP/USD Pair: It Is Worth Waiting To Make A Decision

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 15.09.2022 12:35
GBP/USD comes under renewed selling pressure on Thursday, though lacks follow-through. Aggressive Fed rate hike bets revive the USD demand and exert some downward pressure. A positive risk tone caps the safe-haven buck and helps limit the downside for the major. The GBP/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's modest uptick and meets with a fresh supply on Thursday. Spot prices remain on the defensive through the first half of the European session, though manage to hold above the 1.1500 psychological mark. The US dollar catches fresh bids amid expectations for a more aggressive policy tightening by the Fed and turns out to be a key factor exerting some downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair. The stronger US consumer inflation data released on Tuesday all but confirmed that the Fed will hike interest rates at a faster pace. In fact, the implied odds for a full 1% lift-off at the September FOMC meeting currently stand at 30%. Furthermore, the markets have been pricing in the possibility of another supersized Fed rate hike move in November. This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and continues to underpin the greenback. That said, a generally positive risk tone is capping gains for the safe-haven buck. Apart from this, prospects for a 75 bps rate hike by the Bank of England on September 22 offer support to the GBP/USD pair. This makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before positioning for an extension of the post-US CPI sharp retracement slide from a two-week high. In the absence of any relevant economic data from the UK, traders look forward to the US macro releases for some impetus later during the early North American session. Thursday's US economic docket features the release of monthly Retail Sales figures, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Regional Manufacturing Indices, and Industrial Production data. This, along with the US bond yields and the broader risk sentiment, will influence the USD and produce short-term trading opportunities around the GBP/USD pair.
British Pound (GBP) Supported By CPI, What's One Of The Possible Scenarios For GBP/USD?

British Pound (GBP) Supported By CPI, What's One Of The Possible Scenarios For GBP/USD?

Jing Ren Jing Ren 15.09.2022 08:16
GBPUSD finds support The pound bounces back as Britain’s core CPI stayed stubbornly high in August. The sharp decline came to a halt at the base of a previous bullish breakout at 1.1480. The RSI’s oversold condition attracted some bargain hunters in the demand zone. The support-turned-resistance at 1.1620 is the next hurdle where trapped buyers would be looking to exit. However, its breach would send Sterling back to 1.1730 on the 20-day moving average, suggesting that the bulls may not yet have had their last word. NZDUSD breaks key support The New Zealand dollar recovers over upbeat Q2 GDP. The pair came under pressure near a former support (0.6160) over the 20-day moving average. The long bearish candle is a sign of capitulation as the short-term mood tanks. A break below the psychological support of 0.6000 has invalidated the recent rebound and indicated that the path of least resistance is down. May 2020’s lows around 0.5920 could be the next target. An oversold RSI may cause a bounce to 0.6050 where trend followers could sell into strength. USOIL hits resistance WTI crude rallied after a slower increase in US inventories. From the daily chart’s perspective, sentiment remains downbeat after the price broke below the key support at 86.00. The bears may see bounces as opportunities to sell at a better price. The current recovery has met stiff selling pressure at 90.00 which coincides with the 30-day moving average. However, if the buy side manages to push past this supply zone, 94.00 could be next. 84.20 is the closest support and its breach could resume the downtrend below 81.30.
The UK Markets Remain Volatile, Possible Contraction Of The Eurozone Economy

United Kingdom - What Is The Estimated UK Retail Sales Print?

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 15.09.2022 22:48
The British pound is in negative territory today and has fallen below the 1.15 line. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.1497, down 0.38%. US retail sales, jobless claims beat forecast US retail sales rose 0.3% MoM in August, rebounding from -0.4% in July. Excluding gasoline, retail sales were up 0.8%, as consumers responded to lower gas prices by increasing spending on other items. The data indicates that consumer spending is holding up, despite an inflation rate of 8.3%. There was more positive news as US initial job claims fell for a fifth consecutive week, falling to 213 thousand. This follows the previous release of 218 thousand and beat the consensus of 226 thousand. These releases are especially significant, as the Federal Reserve relies on a strong labour market and solid consumer spending in order to remain aggressive with its hawkish policy as its grapples with high inflation. The Fed is expected increase rates by 75 basis points next week, with an outside chance of a massive 100bp hike. Inflation has proved to be more resilient than expected, and with the Fed continuing its steep rate-hike cycle, we may see more demand destruction which raises the likelihood of a recession. The UK wraps up a busy week with retail sales on Friday. Consumers have been hammered by the cost-of-living crisis and predictably are cutting back on spending, which will only exacerbate the grim economic landscape. Retail sales fell by 3.0% YoY in July, and the markets are bracing for an even worse month of August, with an estimate of -3.4%. A release of -3.0% or worse could extend the British pound’s losses. GBP/USD Technical GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.1548. Next, there is resistance at 1.1689 There is support at 1.1417 and 1.1306 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. GBP/USD dips on strong US data, UK GDP next - MarketPulseMarketPulse
The EUR/USD and The GBP/USD Markets Were Bearish Yesterday, Will It Be The Same Today?

The Rise Of The Euro Against The Decline Of Other World Currencies Should Stop

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 16.09.2022 08:12
The euro managed to grow by 0.14% yesterday while the dollar index rose by 0.07%. The price is approaching the target resistance at 1.0032, reinforced by the MACD indicator line on a daily scale. The Marlin Oscillator has penetrated into the positive area and now the price will try to overcome this resistance. Success will allow the euro to rise to 1.0150. But in fact, the price is still in the consolidation area (0.9950-1.0032), the general trend is downward, there is a volume exit from risk in adjacent markets - the S&P 500 lost 1.13% yesterday, and this morning the Japanese Nikkei 225 is down by 1.21%, yields on US government bonds are growing for the fifth consecutive day. Today's European CPI data for August is expected to remain unchanged - core CPI 4.3% y/y, headline CPI 9.1% y/y. In the US, the consumer expectations index from the University of Michigan for September is forecast to rise from 58.0 to 59.7. The euro's growth against the decline of other world currencies should stop and we are waiting for the quote at the target level of 0.9850. The price is consolidating under the MACD indicator line on the four-hour chart, although visually this consolidation looks like growth, because the MACD line itself is growing. Consolidation data are mainly signs of a further decline in the instrument in question. The final confirmation of the main downward scenario will be when the price overcomes the support level of 0.9950.     Relevance up to 04:00 2022-09-17 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321865
The Bears Are In Full Control Of The Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Market

The Pound To The US Dollar Pair: Britain's Economy Is Not Going To Help The Bulls

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 16.09.2022 11:08
Several good market entry signals were formed yesterday. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and see what happened. I paid attention to the 1.1495 level in my morning forecast and advised making decisions on entering the market from it. The bears did not delay the attack and actively flunked the pound to the nearest support area of 1.1495, where I advised you to open long positions. A false breakout at 1.1495 only resulted in a 25-point bounce for the pound. In the afternoon, after reviewing the technical picture, the bulls continued to defend 1.1482, but the more often this level was tested, the less the pair bounced up - each time the movement was no more than 25 points. By the end of the trading session, 1.1482 was broken. When to go long on GBP/USD: Data on the growth of retail sales in the US added pressure on the British pound, which is clearly aiming for a return to the September lows and their renewal. Today there is only a report on the change in the volume of retail trade excluding fuel costs in the UK for August this year, which clearly does not bring anything good, as economists fear a sharp decline in sales - this, theoretically, will harm the pound and indicate the deplorable state of the British an economy already suffering from a household cost of living crisis. The most convenient scenario for opening long positions in the current difficult conditions will be a false breakout in the area of the nearest support at 1.1441, formed at the end of the last week. In order to recover in this case, the goal will be the resistance of 1.1476, slightly above which the moving averages go, playing on the bears' side. Only a breakthrough and test to the downside of this range could pull speculators' stops in its wake, creating a new buy signal on the rise to the more distant 1.1513 level, allowing the bulls to stop the bear market and move trading into a horizontal channel. The farthest target will be the area of 1.1547, where I recommend taking profits. In case GBP/USD falls and the bulls are not active at 1.1441, the pair will be under pressure again, which will open up the prospect of updating the September low. In this case, I advise you to postpone long positions until the next support at 1.1406. I recommend opening long positions on GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from 1.1358, or even lower - around 1.1313, counting on correcting 30-35 points within the day. When to go short on GBP/USD: The bears are slowly but surely pushing the pound to the September lows, taking advantage of good US statistics. Obviously, to keep the market under their control, they need to protect the nearest resistance at 1.1476, which will lead to an excellent signal to open new short positions - especially after UK retail sales data turn out to be worse than economists' forecasts. In this case, the immediate target will be the area of 1.1441, which will most likely be of an intermediate nature, although the bulls will try to show themselves there as much as possible so as not to leave everything at the last level of 1.1406. A breakthrough and reverse test of 1.1441 would provide a good sell entry point with a fall towards 1.1406. The farthest target will be a new yearly low of 1.1358. In case GBP/USD grows and the bears are not active at 1.1476, a correction may lead to the area of 1.1513. Only a false breakout at this level will provide an entry point to short positions as we count on a slight downward movement from the pair. If traders are not active there, I advise you to sell GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from 1.1547, counting on the pair's rebound down by 30-35 points within the day. COT report: An increase in short positions and a decrease in long ones were recorded in the Commitment of Traders (COT) report for September 6. This once again confirms the fact that the British pound is in a major downward peak, from which it is not as easy to get out as it might seem. Last week, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey made a speech, who did his best to inspire confidence that the central bank will continue to follow the path of defeating inflation and continue to aggressively raise interest rates. This suggests that at its next meeting the committee will probably raise rates by 0.75% at once, following the example of other central banks. However, the UK economy is getting worse and worse, and GDP is shrinking quite quickly, as evidenced by recent reports, which does not give confidence to investors. With high inflation and a looming cost-of-living crisis in the UK, it will be quite difficult for bulls to get room to take long positions as nothing good is in store for the stats ahead. The latest COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions decreased by 5,746 to 52,731, while short non-commercial positions rose by 15,516 to 103,163, which led to an increase in the negative value of the non-commercial net position to -50,423 versus -29,170. The weekly closing price collapsed from 1.1526 against 1.1661. Indicator signals: Trading is below the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating a continuation of the bear market. Moving averages Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands In case the pair falls, the lower border of the indicator around 1.1441 will act as support. In case of growth, the upper border of the indicator around 1.1513 will act as resistance. Description of indicators Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart. Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart. MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9 Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20 Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.   Relevance up to 06:00 2022-09-17 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321871
Tips For Traders On Short And Long Positions Of The GBP/USD Pair

UK Sales: British Pound (GBP) Most Probably Doesn't Like August Prints

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 16.09.2022 12:30
A package of retail sales statistics in Britain appears to have removed the last layer of support for the Pound, sending it into a dive. GBPUSD earlier today renewed its lows since 1985, dropping to 1.1350. Sales Drop Fresh data showed a 1.6% m/m and 5.4% y/y drop in sales, which was noticeably weaker than the expected 0.5% m/m and 4.2% y/y decline. This upsetting surprise has added to the pressure on Pound, which has been losing 0.9% against the dollar and yen and 0.6% against the euro after the report. Where Can GBP/USD Go? There has been an almost non-stop, albeit very measured, sell-off in the Pound since August 11, with a brief pause for a shake-out of the dollar bulls' positions. In turn, this momentum looks to be part of a downward wave since March. In that case, the GBPUSD can fall to 1.06, where the 161.8% Fibonacci mark passes from the February peaks to the July lows. It is also worth noting that this technical target is very close to the historical lows of the GBPUSD at 1.0520, which only adds to its attractiveness for the rest of the year. Bank Of England Due to inflation being off the charts by historical standards, the Bank of England has much more motive to make currency or verbal interventions to buy the collapse of the Pound. This is especially true given the recent one-way movement in the British currency. As such, traders and investors should be prepared for a rate hike of more than 50 points next week, as previously done and expected. A tightening of monetary authority rhetoric is also likely.
Price Of NASDAQ Remains Inside The Medium-term Downward Sloping Channel

Less Volatility In The Forex Market, The Huge Problems In The Global Economy

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 16.09.2022 12:34
Consumer inflation in the US seems to have completely deprived the market of hopes that the Fed, after an aggressive rate hike next week, will continue to raise them less vigorously. This is because the weaker-than-expected decline in inflation on a yearly basis and its rise on a monthly basis have brought to life a new wave of forecasts. FedEx CEO Raj Subramaniam also said that the drop in traffic volumes around the world is a clear indication of the huge problems in the global economy. This led to a decline in the US stock market yesterday. Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the same thing, remarking that an aggressive increase in interest rates would cause irreparable damage to the US economy. But the US Central Bank is too determined to reduce inflation, believing that this is an important task and as long as the state of the economy allows tough measures to be implemented, they must be applied. Next week's meeting will show whether the Fed will give up or not. So far, the forex market, in contrast to the stock market, demonstrates noticeably less volatility. Traders are obviously waiting for the outcome of the Fed meeting, so there will be no noticeable changes until it ends. In this regard, the price movement of EUR/USD will stall for a while. But the Fed's continued tight stance on monetary policy will be a major downside, and even the expected increase in the ECB interest rate will not help euro. Most likely, it will drop to a local low of 0.8225 or under. Much will depend on the economic situation in Europe and the United States. If the Fed starts to soften its stance, the pair may hit 1.0200 or higher. Forecasts for today: USDCAD The pair is trading above 1.3250. Further buying pressure will raise the quote to 1.3370. GBP/USD The pair is trading at a local low of 1.1400. A decline below 1.1410 could serve as an impetus for its further fall towards 1.1310.   Relevance up to 08:00 2022-09-19 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321889
The Tightening Of Monetary Policy Will Continue For Some Time

Will Banks Come To Recue Of The Pound To The US Dollar Pair?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 16.09.2022 14:12
GBPUSD is taking lows at dropping below 1.14 and is now trading in territory not seen since 1985! Back then GBPUSD was spiking down to around 1.05 before Central banks joined together to lift it.Will they come to rescue this time around?If GBPUSD closes the week below 1.14 and RSI closes the week below its rising trendline there could be more downside in store for GBPUSD.The latest correction here in Q3 has reached 1.764 projection and could short term extend to 2.00 projection i.e., 200% of the correction peak and trough, at 1.1226.However, looking at the entire 2020-2022 up-and down move 1.382 Fibonacci projection of that is 1.0323.To reverse this very bearish picture GBPUSD needs to close above 1.2295. EURGBP has broken above key resistance at 0.8720. Weekly RSI is above 60 i.e., in positive sentiment indicating higher levels.If this current upward move is top be just a long as the uptrend from Q1 till Q2 EURGBP should reach 0.8858 which is around the 0.618 Fibo retracement of the Q3 2020 through Q1 2022 downturn.However, the current bullish move is likely to be longer than first move to test 0.8720 resistance taking EURGBP to the 0.764 retracement and the 1.382 extension around 0.9050. But a spike up to the 1.618 extension at 0.92 is not out of the question.To reverse this bullish picture EURGBP needs to drop below 0.8395. Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/forex/ta-gbpusd-eurgbp-16092022
The Major Currency Pairs On The Forex Market And Their Move Ahead Of Important Decisions

Mixed Macroeconomic Data And Behavior Of Currency Pairs

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 16.09.2022 14:18
Summary:  The US dollar continues to drive higher together with the pricing for the Fed’s terminal policy rate reaching new highs near 4.50%. The JPY managed to hold the line and then some against a surging greenback as the market seems unwilling to challenge the Bank of Japan for now despite the higher US yields. Elsewhere, the descent in sterling is verging on scary, with GBPUSD staking out new record lows since 1985 below 1.1400 as EURGBP broke the range highs. FX Trading focus: Sterling descent getting scary after weak UK Retail Sales. USDJPY stays tame even with stronger USD and higher US treasury yields. The USD arched to new highs this morning versus a majority of G10 currencies, with USDJPY the notable pair not participating in the move as the market seems unwilling to challenge the Bank of Japan for now. One of the proximate triggers for a shift lower in risk sentiment late yesterday was the weak result and guidance from FedEx after US trading hours. As well, US short treasury yields continue to rise and provide plenty of pressure on markets. As for USDJPY, arguably longer yields are a more important coincident indicator, and US long yields have not yet broken to new cycle highs (3.50% for the US 10-year Treasury benchmark) although they are pushing hard on that level. The short end of the US yield curve, continues to rise apace even as the predictions for next week’s meeting pulled back slightly, meaning that the “terminal rate” for the cycle is getting priced higher – and has nearly hit 4.50%, more than a hundred basis points above where it was in early August. Data from the US yesterday was mixed. The headline US August Retail Sales report was slightly stronger than expected at +0.3% MoM vs. -0.1% expected, but July was revised down to -0.4% from 0.0%. The core Retail Sales data was slightly weaker than expected at +0.3% ex Autos and Gas, likewise with a negative revision (down to +0.3% for July after +0.7% was reported). Important to note that the US reports Retail Sales in nominal dollar changes, so this report suggests stagnating volumes. The latest weekly jobless claims data point yesterday was the lowest since late May, extending the recent falling trend. The UK August Retail Sales data this morning, on the other hand, was distinctly weak and set off an extension lower in sterling, as EURGBP broke above 0.8722 for the first time since early 2021 UK reports Retail Sales in volumes, not in nominal prices, and the month-on-month data developments were extremely weak, pointing to a steep real growth slowdown. Sales including petrol fell -1.6% MoM in August and -1.5% ex petrol. The August Ex Petrol volumes dip takes the data below the 2019 level in August, the first time that has happened in this calendar year. Waiting for the close of trade today for next steps as we have quarterly “witching” of massive derivatives exposures in the US today and with it, possibly erratic trading. Very interesting to see the combination of USDJPY unwillingness to move today together with USDCNH on the rise (so CNHJPY dropping), while EURUSD is also a bit stuck and backing up after trying lower in the European morning today. Some USD exhaustion creeping in at least within the G3? And if risk sentiment continues to deteriorate, will it remain always a function of the rising Fed expectations, or can it jump horses to concerns for the economic cycle? In other words, the eventual chief question may be: what happens to the USD if bond and stocks diverge in direction? Chart: GBPUSDGBPUSD declines took on extra energy this morning in the wake of the weak August UK Retail Sales data that showed a sharp contraction in volumes in August, a sign of real GDP contraction. This took EURGBP to new highs since early 2021 (pointing that out as an indication of isolate GBPS weakness), while GBPUSD drove down to record lows since the mid-1980’s. Not sure what can bring relief for sterling here save for a halt to the relentless rise in US yields and/or thawing risk sentiment after the steep plunge this week. As for next level, only round, psychological ones seem relevant as the 1985 lows near 1.0500 are impossible to compare in real effective terms after 37 years. Bulls will have to hope that sentiment shifts here and for a quick rejection of the new lows to confirm a divergent momentum scenario (stochastic indicator turning back higher after new price lows posted with indicator not at new lows). EURCHF hit new cycle lows yesterday below 0.9550, but these were rapidly rejected. Without any catalyst I could identify, this looks like possible intervention – perhaps as energy prices have calmed, meaning that the SNB wants to lean a bit the other way now? Very curious to hear the SNB next Thursday. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.The stronger euro beginning to stick out, as does the JPY resilience, as the smaller currencies and sterling have traded weakest. Gold hit the skids on breaking below the big range level around 1,680. CNH is on the weak side, which is interesting, given the strong US dollar, but let’s watch 7.20 in USDCNH to see if there is any real fireworks potential. Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.JPY has strengthened enough to have a go at flipping stronger versus NOP and NZD today. More interested in whether the CNHJPY rate flips negative next week. Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights 1200 – Poland Aug. Core CPI 1215 – Canada Aug. Housing Starts 1400 – US Sep. Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/forex/fx-update-sterling-descent-takes-gbpusd-to-historic-low-16092022
The Weakening Of Confidence In The British Government| Oil Prices Extended Gains And More

Forex: British Pound (GBP) Against US Dollar (USD) Charts Shows A Steady Decline

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 16.09.2022 15:11
The British pound continues to lose ground after a brutal retail sales report. The pound dropped as low as 1.1350 earlier today, its lowest level since March 2020. GBP/USD is trading at 1.1373 in the European session, down 0.73%. UK retail sales decline The week wrapped up on a sour note in the UK, as retail sales for August were sharply lower. The headline reading declined by 5.4% YoY, lower than the July release of -3.2% and missing the forecast of -4.2%. It was a similar story with core retail sales, which declined by 5.0%, below the July reading of -3.1% and shy of the estimate of -3.4%. On a monthly basis, retail sales slid by 1.6%, missing the consensus of -0.7% and marking the sharpest decline in eight months. The markets were braced for a weak retail sales report and the only surprise was how sharply consumer spending is falling. The cost-of-living crisis has hammered UK consumers who are in a sour mood and are cutting on disposable spending. Wage growth has not kept up with hot inflation and a YouGov survey found that consumer confidence fell into negative territory in August for the first time since the Covid lockdown in mid-2020. The weak data is another sign that the UK economy is tipping into a recession. The Bank of England meets on September 22nd, a day after the Fed, and is expected to hike rates by 0.75%. The current rate of 1.75% is well below the Fed and other major banks, as the BoE has been slow to tighten, despite spiralling inflation. Governor Bailey has been criticized for throwing in the towel and not doing enough to combat inflation. The BoE is playing catch-up with inflation and could raise rates up to 4.5% next year if inflation does not ease significantly. GBP/USD Technical GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.1548. Next, there is resistance at 1.1689 There is support at 1.1417 and 1.1306 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Pound slides after soft retail sales - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Investors' Concerns About The Coming Recession In The UK, Will GBP/USD Pair Reach Its Lowest Level In History?

British Pound (GBP) Has Decreased By 15 Percent So Far!

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 16.09.2022 15:19
The UK economy, including the British pound's quotations, has had a very turbulent year. The authority of the British currency may have first been undermined by the exit from the European Union, and then the British economy suffered a blow from a pandemic. The British Isles' severe energy crisis and high inflation may be adding to this. Read next: China Positive Reports,Drop In Retail Sales, Waiting For European CPI| FXMAG.COM Since the beginning of this year, the British pound has lost more than 15 percent of its value against the U.S. dollar. This makes the GBP the second weakest of the world's major currencies, just after the Japanese yen, losing more than 19 percent. In addition, if someone was taking the 2014’s peak as a reference point, the GBP's loss against the USD could reach more than 30 percent. As a result, the market has reached levels last seen in 1985. Source: Conotoxia MT5, GBP/USD, MN The British pound after a rough ride Observed in the chart above, the two significant lows in the region of $1.1400 were first the impact of brexit on GBP quotes, and the second was the impact of the pandemic. Currently, this level seems to be tested for the third time. Today, further disappointing data from the British economy may have contributed to the pound's weakness.  The volume of UK retail sales in August fell 1.6 percent from the previous month, the Office for National Statistics reported on Friday. The regression was larger than analysts had expected. Sales fell on a monthly basis for the first time since July 2021.  Non-food store sales slid 1.9 percent month-on-month, auto fuel sales fell 1.7 percent and grocery store sales were 0.8 percent lower, according to the data, which is summarized by BBN's website. As a result of weakening consumer demand and thus possibly the overall British economy, investors seem abandoning the GBP, which this morning is at its weakest since the 1980s against the USD. Rate hikes are not helping the GBP Expectations of interest rate hikes in the UK at this point also do not seem to be helping the pound. Some analysts note that even the GBP is moving like an emerging market currency. These could be characterized by the fact that the higher the investment risk, the lower the exchange rate, despite interest rate hikes. While interest rates in the UK may be higher than in the US over time, investors seem to be turning away from the pound anyway. It seems that under these circumstances, the British currency might have a hard time regaining investor confidence.   Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Read article on Conotoxia.com
Investors' Concerns About The Coming Recession In The UK, Will GBP/USD Pair Reach Its Lowest Level In History?

The Situation In The Great Britain Looks Worse Than Ever (GBP/USD)

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 19.09.2022 11:39
The markets are scared of stagflation, but if it's anywhere, it's Britain. It is the combination of high prices and extremely slow and, most likely, negative GDP growth that can explain the collapse of the GBPUSD to the 37-year bottom area. And you don't need to blame all the bumps on a strong US dollar. In mid-September, the pound collapsed not only against it, but also against the euro after the release of statistics on retail sales. In August, the indicator sank 1.6% MoM, and on an annualized basis, it was stuck in the red zone for five months in a row. Barring the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, there hasn't been such a bad streak for retail in over 10 years. MUFG called the report terrible, predicting a further fall in the sterling, and Capital Economics believes that the data indicate that the UK economy is already in recession. Dynamics of retail sales in Britain An attempt to revive it with a £150 billion support package for households affected by the energy crisis and the tax cut of about 1% of GDP announced during the election race by Liz Truss's team is a double-edged sword. Conservative intervention in the gas market could slow down inflation in the short term but accelerate it in the medium term. Indeed, the growth rate of consumer prices in Britain decreased from 10.1% to 9.9% in August, but inflation expectations on the 12-month horizon, on the contrary, rose from 4.6% to a record 4.9%. Fiscal incentives complicate the work of the Bank of England, which, it seems, is simply obliged to act aggressively but is afraid to go too far, fearing the negative impact of an excessively fast monetary restriction on the economy. The derivatives market is fully confident in the increase in the repo rate by 50 bps at the MPC meeting on September 22 and gives a 65% chance of a 75 bps increase in borrowing costs. In the meantime, the dissatisfaction of the electorate with the BoE's monetary policy has reached its climax. Dynamics of public satisfaction with the work of the Bank of England I would not be surprised if, under such conditions, the intervention of the Liz Truss government in the work of Andrew Bailey and his colleagues does not cause public criticism. Thus, the situation in the UK looks worse than ever, but any coin always has two sides. The collapse of the GBPUSD would not have been possible without the strong US dollar. The futures market predicts that in 2023 the federal funds rate will reach 4.5%, and about 70% of Financial Times experts believe that the 4–5% range will become its ceiling. 20% of economists believe that it is even higher. The Fed's monetary tightening potential has not been disclosed, and it appears to be greater than that of the BoE. The American economy looks better than the British one. Where can GBPUSD not fall? Technically, on the daily chart of the analyzed pair, falling quotes below the pivot point 1.138 will increase the risks of the downward trend continuation in the direction of 1.12 and 1.115. While GBPUSD is trading below 1.15, the recommendation is to sell.   Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-24 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322009
The Euro (EUR) Is In A Stable Channel And The Pound (GBP) Has Little Chance Of Falling

What The Trading Plan Looks Like For The Major Currency Pairs (EUR/USD And GBP/USD)

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 19.09.2022 11:51
Details of the economic calendar for September 16 Retail sales fell 1.6% on a monthly basis in August, according to the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS). This is the most significant decline since December 2021. On an annualized basis, sales fell 5.4% after falling 3.2% in July. The decline in retail sales is a negative factor, which is another sign that the economy is slipping into recession. The pound sterling was actively losing value during the publication of statistical data. In Europe, data on inflation accelerated from 8.9% to 9.1%. The final data coincided with the preliminary estimate. Rising inflation indicates that the ECB will once again raise the refinancing rate by 75 basis points. The expectation of further growth of the rate has a positive effect on the euro during the publication of inflation data. Analysis of trading charts from September 16 The EURUSD currency pair, despite the local manifestation of activity, is still moving within the sideways range of 0.9950/1.0030. This price movement indicates the process of accumulation of trading forces, which will most likely lead to a surge in activity during the completion of the side formation. The GBPUSD currency pair ended last week with an update of the local lows of the downward trend. As a result, the quote was at the levels of 1985, where overheating of short positions on the pound led to a technical pullback of about 90 points. Economic calendar for September 19 The new trading week starts with a blank macroeconomic calendar. Important statistics in Europe and the United States are not expected. While trading is closed in the UK due to the funeral of Queen Elizabeth II. Investors and traders will be guided by the information flow, identifying possible speeches / statements / comments regarding interest rates, inflation, and everything related to monetary policy. Trading plan for EUR/USD on September 19 In this situation, work within the established range is possible, but the outgoing impulse method is considered the most optimal strategy in terms of income and risk. We concretize the above: The downward movement will be relevant after holding the price below 0.9950 in a four-hour period. This move could result in a new downward trend low. An upward movement in the currency pair is taken into account in case of a stable holding of the price above the value of 1.0030 in a four-hour period. Trading plan for GBP/USD on September 19 Despite the current pullback, the market still has a technical signal about the oversold pound sterling. For this reason, the price movement above the value of 1.1450 will lead to the subsequent recovery of the British currency. At the same time, the update of the local low of the downward trend has led to the emergence of an inertial move on the market, where the speculative mood may well ignore all the emerging signals from technical analysis. In this case, keeping the price below the value of 1.1350 may lead to a subsequent increase in the volume of short positions in the pound sterling. What is shown in the trading charts? A candlestick chart view is graphical rectangles of white and black light, with sticks on top and bottom. When analyzing each candle in detail, you will see its characteristics of a relative period: the opening price, closing price, and maximum and minimum prices. Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a stop or a price reversal may occur. These levels are called support and resistance in the market. Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price of the story unfolded. This color selection indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the quote in the future. The up/down arrows are the reference points of the possible price direction in the future. Relevance up to 10:00 2022-09-20 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/322028
The Tightening Of Monetary Policy Will Continue For Some Time

Will The Bears Continue To Put Pressure On The EUR/USD And The GBP/USD Pairs?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 19.09.2022 12:49
EUR/USD Higher timeframes Despite a fairly effective rebound upon meeting the resistance levels 1.0016-76, last week closed with a candle of uncertainty. The pair remains tied to the psychological level of 1.0000, while thinking about the future prospects. For the bulls in the current situation, the next important task is to break through the daily Ichimoku cross (1.0037 – 1.0066 – 1.0114 ) and gaining support from the weekly short-term trend (1.0116). For bears, the recovery of the downward trend (0.9864) is still of primary importance. H4 – H1 On the lower timeframes, consolidation and uncertainty have led the pair in the zone of attraction and influence of key levels—0.9999 (central pivot point of the day) - 1.0027 (weekly long-term trend). Breakdown and consolidation above can contribute to the activity of the bulls. The reference points for further upward move within the day are 1.0053 – 1.0091 – 1.0145 (resistance of classical pivot points). Meanwhile, the reference points for the decline are the classic pivot points (0.9961 – 0.9907 – 0.9869), the target for the breakdown of the H4 cloud (0.9897 – 0.9864) and the minimum extremum of the downward trend of higher timeframes (0.9864). *** GBP/USD Higher timeframes Last week failed to realize a close below the significant historical milestone of this area—1.1411 (minimum extremum of 2020). Therefore, for the appearance of new prospects for bearish players, first of all, it is important to overcome the met support. The immediate resistance of the higher timeframes is now the daily short-term trend of 1.1543. H4 – H1 The main advantage on the lower timeframes currently belongs to the bears. Among the reference points for continued decline today is the target for the breakdown of the H4 Ichimoku cloud (1.1342) and the support of the classic pivot points (1.1351 – 1.1286 – 1.1222). If the current correction develops, the key levels for bulls will be 1.1415 (central pivot point) and 1.1531 (weekly long-term trend). Consolidation above and reversal of the moving average will change the current balance of power. *** In the technical analysis of the situation, the following are used: higher timeframes – Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) + Fibo Kijun lev