GBP/USD analysis

Analysis of GBP/USD 5M   On Friday, GBP/USD, unlike EUR/USD, snapped higher. Volatility was slightly higher than for the euro, but it doesn't matter, as the pair has been trading in a flat for several weeks. This is evident on all timeframes, so the macroeconomic and fundamental backdrop is currently taking a back seat. To be precise, there was no fundamental backdrop last week, and most reports did not support the British pound. Therefore, the pair could have extended the decline that began a month and a half ago, but the market clearly took a break, so we did not see any interesting movements. The UK released its retail sales report, which doesn't require much discussion. The pair dipped lower as sales undershot forecasts. In the second half of the day, the market received a technical signal to grow, so by the end of the day, the pound had offset all morning losses. As already mentioned, one trading signal was formed. At the beginning of the US session, the price rebounded from the area of 1.2693-1.2700, and the pair rose by 30 pips. Traders could earn these 30 pips since there were no more signals until the end of the day. Therefore, the deal had to be closed manually. At least, the loss on the EUR/USD pair was offset. COT report:     According to the latest report, the non-commercial group of traders opened 7,300 long positions and 3,300 short ones. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 4,000 positions in a week. The net position has been steadily growing over the past 11 months as well as the pound sterling. Now, the net position has advanced markedly. This is why the pair will hardly maintain its bullish momentum. I believe that a long and protracted downward movement should begin. COT reports signal a slight growth of the British currency but it will not be able to rise in the long term.   There are no drivers for opening new long positions. Slowly, sell signals are emerging on the 4-hour and 24-hour charts. The British currency has already grown by a total of 2,800 pips, from its absolute lows reached last year, which is a significant increase. Without a downward correction, the continuation of the uptrend will be illogical. However, there has been no logic in the pair's movements for quite some time. The market perceives the fundamental background one-sidedly, ignoring any data in favor of the dollar. The Non-commercial group of traders has a total of 90,500 long positions and 39,500 short ones. I remain skeptical about the long-term growth of the pound sterling, and the market has recently begun to pay attention to short positions.   Analysis of GBP/USD 1H On the 1H chart, the pound/dollar pair continues to trade within a sideways channel. The channel has slightly expanded, so the flat hasn't ended. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator are currently weak, but from time to time they still work well with the market. Due to the flat, we have recorded the last values of the Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen lines. However, false and inaccurate signals can still form around them. The pair reached the upper band of the channel on Thursday, so now we can expect the pound to fall. On August 21, traders should pay attention to the following key levels: 1.2520, 1.2605-1.2620, 1.2693, 1.2786, 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987, 1.3050. The Senkou Span B (1.2807) and Kijun-sen (1.2700) lines can also be sources of signals, e.g. rebounds and breakout of these levels and lines. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss orders at the breakeven level when the price moves in the right direction by 20 pips. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are support and resistance levels that can be used to lock in profits. On Monday, no important events or reports lined up in the UK or the US. Thus, traders will have nothing to react to, so we will probably see weak and mixed up movements.   Description of the chart: Support and resistance levels are thick red lines near which the trend may end. They do not provide trading signals; The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, plotted to the 1H timeframe from the 4H one. They provide trading signals; Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price bounced earlier. They provide trading signals; Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns; Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the net position size for each category of traders; Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the net position size for the Non-commercial group. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/352147 Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/352147 Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/352147 Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/352147  

Analysis of transactions and tips for trading GBP/USD The test of 1.2623 on Monday afternoon, coinciding with the drop of the MACD line from zero, prompted a sell signal that should have led to a price decrease. However, the signal only resulted in losses, as the bearish market did not continue. Data on the UK's service and composite PMI lies ahead, and they could lead to a further drop in GBP/USD provided that the reports show a downward revision. This means that market players should be inclined more to short positions, especially in the morning. If sellers do not show activity after updating the monthly lows, it may be appropriate to consider long positions.   For long positions: Buy when pound hits 1.2621 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2671 (thicker green line on the chart). Growth will occur amid very good PMI data. However, when buying, ensure that the MACD line lies above zero or just starts to rise from it. Pound can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.2570, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2621 and 1.2671. For short positions: Sell when pound reaches 1.2570 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2530. Pressure will increase amid weak statistics. However, when selling, ensure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Pound can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.2621, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2570 and 1.2530.   What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy GBP/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell GBP/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market   Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.  

The US non-farm payroll report for August, published on Friday, turned out to be perfect for the Federal Reserve. It's not so much about the figures, which were quite moderate, but about how they perfectly supported the Fed's strategy. The chances of a rate hike at the Fed's September meeting have dropped to 7%, which means it's safe to say that the rate hike cycle is over. Unless, of course, something unbelievable happens, but such assumptions should hardly be expected.   The first rate cut is expected in May 2024, and this forecast has not changed.   What was positive in the report? First and foremost, it was the fact that average hourly earnings increased 0.2% for the month, against the expectations of 0.3%. This is the smallest increase in the last 12 months. Slower wage growth is an important basis for reducing overall inflationary pressure. Nonfarm payrolls grew by 187,000 for the month, defying expectations, which could have been seen as a high level of activity had it not been for a revision to the previous two months' figures of 110,000, which more than offset the excess. The unemployment rate rose from 3.5% to 3.8%, the highest since February 2022. Overall, we can say that the Fed is consistently achieving its goal of cooling the economy to reduce inflationary pressure. Another significant release on Friday was the US ISM manufacturing index, which showed that the slowdown in the US manufacturing sector continues, albeit at a slower pace than expected (47.6 versus a consensus 47). Market activity was reduced on Monday due to the holiday in the United States. EUR/USD The Eurozone Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices jumped 0.6% in August, exceeding expectations of 0.4%. The annual eurozone HICP remained at 5.3% against a forecast of 5.1%. However, the data did not cause any surprise as the core index decreased in line with expectations from 5.5% to 5.3% y/y. After the report, European Central Bank Vice President Guindos stated that the new ECB forecasts would show that inflation prospects had not changed significantly over the summer, although economic prospects had deteriorated. The data indicates a decrease in economic activity in the third and possibly fourth quarters, and the rate decision in September is still open for debate. Earlier on the same day, ECB representative Schnabel (a hawk) stated that underlying inflationary pressure remains high, but economic activity has noticeably decreased. In her opinion, monetary policy remains a topic of discussion at every meeting, so she could not offer a view on what should happen this month. Thus, there is no clear position from the ECB. On Monday, ECB President Christine Lagarde was scheduled to speak, as well as Lane and Panetta, and on Tuesday, Lagarde will speak again with Schnabel and Guindos. Investors are eyeing the speeches for clues on the ECB's plans. If something different from the market consensus on this issue is voiced, increased volatility is inevitable. The net long position on the EUR decreased by 0.4 billion to 21.1 billion over the reporting week, with positioning remaining bullish. However, the trend toward selling the euro is becoming increasingly noticeable. The price remains below the long-term average and is falling again.     A week ago, we anticipated that EUR/USD would attempt a shallow correction after a pronounced two-month decline. This attempt took place, but then the bears attacked, and the euro fell to the recent low of 1.0764, failing to break it on the first attempt. We assume that after a brief consolidation, the downward movement will resume, the lower band of the channel will not hold, and the euro will move towards the nearest target of 1.0634. The dynamics will depend primarily on the stability of the US economic recovery and the Federal Reserve's future course of actions. GBP/USD Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill noted that services price inflation has become less favorable recently and that the UK is facing the effects of "second-round" effects (i.e., wage-driven) and that the Committee needs to see through the job aimed at suppressing inflation. Pill referred to two scenarios, the first of which involves a succeeding increase in rates followed by a rapid decrease, and the second involves maintaining high interest rates for an extended period. In his opinion, the profile of the inflation trajectory in both cases will be almost identical, but personally, he leans towards the second approach due to risks to financial stability. In any case, markets are anticipating a rate hike in September to 5.5%, which is already priced in, but a higher rate level appears increasingly unlikely. The net long position on GBP decreased by 0.6 billion to 4.1 billion over the reporting week, and the price dropped sharply.     Within the framework of a short-term correction, the pound rose above the resistance area of 1.2680/90, which we identified in the previous review as a likely level for a sell-off, but after the correction, it went down as expected. We assume that the sell-offs will intensify, the support at 1.2545 will not hold, and the long-term target of 1.2290/2310 remains relevant.  

Analysis of transactions and tips for trading GBP/USD Further decline became limited because the test of 1.2289 coincided with the sharp downward move of the MACD line from zero. The report on the UK house price index did not make an impression on traders, and pressure on the pair returned after the speeches made by Fed representatives. But today, pound may have a chance to compensate for losses, after the speech of Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. He should be full of optimism, hinting at the imminent winding down of aggressive policies and interest rate cuts. Pound will continue to fall if this does not happen.   For long positions: Buy when pound hits 1.2285 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2327 (thicker green line on the chart). Growth will occur after Andrew Bailey's statements or after protecting the support at 1.2260. However, when buying, ensure that the MACD line lies above zero or just starts to rise from it. Pound can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.2266, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2285 and 1.2327. For short positions: Sell when pound reaches 1.2266 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2229. Pressure will continue as soon as Bailey comments on the poor state of the UK economy and high inflation. However, when selling, ensure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Pound can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.2285, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2266 and 1.2229.   What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy GBP/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell GBP/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market  

Analysis of GBP/USD 5M   The GBP/USD pair continued to decline on Tuesday, primarily based on technical factors, as this was in the absence of influential economic releases. The only noteworthy event was the moderately hawkish statement by Neel Kashkari, which we have already discussed. Nonetheless, this is just the opinion of one of the eighteen members of the Federal Reserve's monetary committee. At the CME, its own FedWatch tool showed a low probability of a hike for the December meeting. Therefore, the market currently does not expect a new rate hike in the US. However, this information should not be crucial for the US dollar. It should resume its trend and, consequently, continue to strengthen. It is almost guaranteed that the pair will return to the level of 1.2109, which is roughly 200 pips down from its current position. The decline may be gradual. There were only two trading signals for the pound yesterday. The price bounced off the 1.2269 level twice, but in both cases, it managed to rise by a maximum of 20 pips. This was enough to place a stop-loss to breakeven for both long positions. Therefore, both trades were certainly not losing ones. You could manually close the second trade in profit.   COT report:   COT reports on the British pound also align perfectly with what's happening in the market. According to the latest report on GBP/USD, the non-commercial group closed 3,400 long positions and 1,700 short ones. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by another 1,700 contracts in a week. The net position indicator has been steadily rising over the past 12 months, but it has been firmly decreasing over the past three months. The British pound is also losing ground. We have been waiting for many months for the sterling to reverse downwards. Perhaps GBP/USD is at the very beginning of a prolonged downtrend. At least in the coming months, we do not see significant prospects for the pound to rise, and even if we're currently witnessing a corrective phase, it could persist for several months.   The British pound has surged by a total of 2,800 pips from its absolute lows reached last year, which is an enormous increase. Without a strong downward correction, a further upward trend would be entirely illogical (if it is even planned). We don't rule out an extension of an uptrend. We simply believe that a substantial correction is needed first, and then we should assess the factors supporting the US dollar and the British pound. A correction to the level of 1.1844 would be enough to establish a fair balance between the two currencies. The non-commercial group currently holds a total of 63,700 longs and 85,800 shorts. The bears have been holding the upper hand in recent months, and we believe this trend will continue in the near future.  

Analyzing Thursday's trades: GBP/USD on 30M chart   On Thursday, GBP/USD showed a more interesting, and most importantly, a downward movement. While the euro remained mostly stagnant throughout the day, the pound resumed its decline, as we have warned before. We expect the dollar to rise and the pound to fall, as the bullish correction that has been developing in the last month may have finally come to an end. Therefore, in the near future, we expect the pair to fall to the previous week's lows, located near the level of 1.2107. As for the fundamentals and macroeconomics, the only interesting event was Federal Reserve Jerome Powell's speech. He said that the key rate may rise again if the situation requires it. He also noted that the inflation target of 2% remains unchanged, but the central bank is currently taking a more cautious position, trying to find a balance between overly tight and overly loose monetary policy. His words can be interpreted as "moderately hawkish," which could contribute to the US dollar's strength in the second half of the day.   On the 5-minute chart, many trading signals were generated. The pair showed volatility of almost 100 pips, but throughout the day, it repeatedly changed direction, working through all available levels from all sides. Therefore, although we saw a good amount of movement, it is not necessarily good for traders. The first two signals brought profit to beginners, but just a small profit of about 20 pips. Then there were two false signals near the level of 1.2270, but you couldn't even set a stop loss to breakeven. All subsequent signals, considering the nature of the pair's movement, should not have been executed. Trading tips on Friday: On the 30-minute chart, we had been anticipating a proper upward correction cycle for the GBP/USD pair for quite some time, and it has finally materialized. However, at this point, it seems that this correction is already coming to an end. If that's the case, we expect the downtrend to resume. The pair has breached the 1.2270 mark, so the downtrend will likely follow. The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.1992-1.2010, 1.2052, 1.2089-1.2107, 1.2164-1.2179, 1.2235, 1.2270, 1.2310, 1.2372-1.2394, 1.2457-1.2488, 1.2544, 1.2605-1.2620, 1.2653, 1.2688. Once the price moves 20 pips in the right direction after opening a trade, you can set the stop-loss at breakeven. On Friday, a couple of reports will be released in the UK. We can highlight the quarterly GDP and industrial production in September. It's not certain that the market will find these reports interesting, but it's still something. In the US, we can look to the secondary consumer sentiment index. Basic trading rules: 1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal. 2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded. 3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading. 4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed. 5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel. 6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.   How to read charts: Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction. The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source. Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend. Beginners should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.