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EUR: Downside risks into the weekend

Medium-term consumer inflation expectations in the eurozone continued to ease in May, with the 12-month expectation gauge declining from 4.1% to 3.9%. However, long-term (three-year) inflation expectations – arguably of greater interest for the European Central Bank - remained unchanged at 2.5%, well above the bank’s 2% target. When taking June’s flash core CPI estimates on board, the ECB hawks hardly lack arguments to continue tightening.

Today, the eurozone calendar is very light, and EUR/USD will trade in line with the dollar's reaction to US data. We suspect the pair is facing some downside risks in the latter part of the year after the FOMC minutes set the bar quite high for data to convince markets to price out Fed rate hikes. There is still a gap to be filled (around 20bp) between the Fed communication (dot plots) and the market pricing, while the ECB’s communication is pretty much matched by the EUR OIS curve, which currently em

Global Markets Shaken as Yields Soar: Dollar Surges, Stocks Slump, and Gold Holds Ground Amid Debt Concerns and Rate Hike Expectations

Bitcoin Price Back on The Rise, Consumer Spending In The UK Falls In Light Of Inflation And The US Dollar Continues to Strengthen

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 26.04.2022 10:48
Summary: Bitcoin prices are increasing today after breaking support levels overnight. With consumer spending decreasing in the UK, the GBP is struggling to fight against the US dollar strengthening. With Australian inflation continuing to rise, the currency is weakening against and already strong USD. BTC/USD prices are increasing despite bearish market sentiment. We know that Bitcoin was the world's first digital currency and that its price is very volatile, making it historically popular for speculating traders. On Friday the price of Bitcoin dropped below $40 000, this reflected the midpoint of a 3 month long trade range. The price of bitcoin has increased by 5.55% since this morning. While market sentiment remains uncertain, current rises in the price of Bitcoin will likely be limited. As of this morning news broke that U.S Fidelity will allow employees to put Bitcoin into their 401(k) retirement savings accounts starting later this year, giving more people access to cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin Price Chart Read next: US Dollar (USD) Continues To Trump Euro (EUR) And British Pound (GBP). EUR Fails To Get Boost Post Macron Election Victory - Good Morning Forex!  GBP Weakening against the USD. Market sentiment for this currency pair is bearish at the moment, the USD has been strengthening against the GBP over the past week. This strengthening comes with investor confidence being restored in the US dollar as a result of the Fed increasing yields for the 7th week in a row. The GBP inflation is causing a problem for this currency, as consumer spending decreases, the economy can expect a knock. GBP/USD Price Chart AUD Weakens against the USD. Since the market opened this morning, investor sentiment for the AUD/USD pair is bearish. Yesterday the price of the AUD/USD pair hit its lowest since March. This comes with the USD strengthening, once again thanks to rising U.S yields as well as the negative news out of China causing investors to short riskier assets. In addition, the AUD is struggling post inflation expectation announcements, the inflation is expected to increase for 2 consecutive quarters. Inlight of this, the USD is benefiting hugely from the AUD weakening. AUD/USD Price Chart Read next: U.S Yields Expecting Further Increases!?, Announcement Of PMIs Prelims For The Private Sector - FOREX Today  Sources: dailyfx.com, finance.yahoo.com
The EUR/USD Pair Showed Local Speculative Interest In Short Positions Yesterday

(EUR/USD) US Dollar Continues To Strengthen, BoEs Inflation Forecast and Economic Outlook Due On Thursday - Good Morning Forex!

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 03.05.2022 12:22
Summary: EUR/USD breaks below 1.05. BoE’s and Fed monetary policy decisions due on during the trading week. GBP relying on the Fed’s quantitative tightening decisions. EURO is under pressure. The EURO lost more ground to the USD during the trading day on Tuesday, the price is sitting below 1.05. The first quarter of 2022 has not been positive for the EURO, with the Russia-Ukraine conflict still raging, the post-covid world, the hawkish Fed and lockdowns in China, are all putting pressure on the already weakening EURO. The market sentiment for this currency pair is mixed. EUR/USD Price Chart Read next: GBP: BoE Expected to Raise Yields, US Dollar (USD) Strengthens across the board - Good Morning Forex!  GBP sees strength against the EUR The GBP has strengthened against the EUR since the market opened this morning, however market sentiment is showing bullish signals. The strengthening of the GBP comes in anticipation of the Bank of Englands (BoEs) announcements due on Thursday, the market expectation is to see a hawkish BoE. If the BoE remains dovish, we could see the EURO bounce back. EUR/GBP Price Chart USD/CAD beats March high on Tuesday. The USD strengthened against the CAD on Tuesday, it's a busy week for the USD, the Federal Reserve is due to announce its monetary policy decision. The market sentiment for this currency pair is showing bullish signals, however, investor sentiment and confidence could easily be swayed in the coming days. USD/CAD Price Chart GBP shows strength against the USD. The Bank of Englands (BoE) monetary policy is the key driver for its small recovery against the USD, however the future of this currency pair lies in the decision of the Fed. The Fed is expected to begin the balance sheet reduction process through quantitative tightening could have adverse effects on the GBP. The market sentiment for this currency pair is bullish. GBP/USD Price Chart Read next: US Dollar (USD) Continues To Trump The EUR, BoE Expected To Increase Interest Rates, SNB Remains Dovish, South African Rand (ZAR) Performance  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
USD/CHF - US Dollar Is Awaiting Jobs Market Data, While Swiss Inflation May Trigger SNB To Hike The Interest Rate, Boosting Swiss Franc In Consequence

US Dollar (USD) Expected To Strengthen As Investors Await Fed’s Interest Announcement (EUR/USD, AUD/USD), BoE are Expected To Raise Their Interest Rates (EUR/GBP), (AUD/USD) Showing Mixed Market Sentiment Signals, USD/CHF Is Bullish

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 04.05.2022 11:50
Summary: The Fed is expected to tighten monetary policy further. BoE is expected to raise interest rates. RBA raises interest rates for the first time since 2010. SNB remains dovish in their fight against inflation. EURO expected to weaken further against the USD. Market sentiment is bearish for this currency pair, the market sentiment comes as market participants await the Fed’s interest rate announcement, investors expect a further 50 bp rise in interest rates which will result in a stronger US Dollar. Prices are continuing to rise despite the hawkish Fed, if this continues after the next interest rate increase, there could be trouble for the USD. EUR/USD Price Chart   Read next: (EUR/USD) US Dollar Continues To Strengthen, BoEs Inflation Forecast and Economic Outlook Due On Thursday - Good Morning Forex!    GBP showing further strengthening potential against the EUR. The EUR has been weakening against the GBP since the market opened this morning. The GBP strengthening against the EUR comes with expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to increase the interest rate yields by 25bps. The European Central Bank (ECB) is still behind the United Kingdom when it comes to tightening monetary policies, causing the EUR to weaken. The current market sentiment for the currency pair is bearish. EUR/GBP Price Chart The Reserve Bank of Australia raises interest rates for the first time since 2010. Since the market opened this morning, the price of the AUD/USD has increased by more than 0.3%. Market sentiment for this currency pair is mixed. The AUD is not giving the USD more opportunity to strengthen. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised their interest rates for the first time since 2010, the tightening of monetary policy comes in an attempt to fight the rising inflation. The AUD is a risk asset, which means its price is levered to commodities. The US Dollar is expected to pull back against the AUD as the world slows down and the hawkish Fed continues its war against inflation. AUD/USD Price Chart CHF Weakens as SNB remains dovish. The US Dollar is expected to strengthen against the Swiss Franc with the market sentiment showing bullish signals. The continuing hawkish attitude of the Fed and the dovish attitude of the Swiss National Bank (SNB), means the strengthening of the USD against the CHF is likely to continue. USD/CHF Price Chart   Read next: GBP: BoE Expected to Raise Yields, US Dollar (USD) Strengthens across the board - Good Morning Forex!    Source: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com
Risks in the US Banking System: Potential Impacts and Contagion Concerns

(EUR/USD) All Eyes On The US Bureau Of Labour Statistics’ Results Due On Friday, (EUR/GBP) Bleak Economic Outlook For the UK Sends GBP Spiralling - Good Morning Forex!

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 06.05.2022 11:20
Summary: US forex and stock markets await labour statistics. The UK economic outlook shocks the market. CHF weakens further.   Read next: (EUR/USD) ECB Reveals The Possibility Of Interest Rate Increases In July, Negative Investor Sentiment Towards The GBP, Investor Sentiment Turns Bullish For The AUD/JPY Pair - Good Morning   EUR shows slight strengthening against the US Dollar The price of the EUR/USD currency pair has increased since the market opened this morning. The strengthening of the Euro comes as the market awaits the release of the latest nonfarm payrolls data due from the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics, which are expected to have decreased over the past month. If there were any chance of the labour crisis being improved, the Fed may slow on their aggressive monetary policy. The market sentiment for this currency pair is mixed, investors are awaiting the announcement from the Bureau of Labour Statistics, if the results are favourable, we could see the US Dollar strengthen even more, if the results are below market expectations, we could see the EUR temporarily strengthen further against the US Dollar during the trading day. EUR/USD Price Chart GBP weakens against the EUR Market sentiment is showing bullish signals for this currency pair. On Thursday the Bank of England (BoE) announced their May economic forecast, which reflected a bleak picture. The BoE forecasted inflation to reach around 10% by the end of the year, along with expectations that the UK economy will slow, this forecast made the market turn away from the GBP. In the current economic environment, it is likely that other economies will face the same issues as the UK. EUR/GBP Price Chart CHF continues to weaken against the USD This currency pair is showing bullish market signals for the future. The US Dollar continues to strengthen against the Swiss Franc, the hawkish Fed and dovish SNB are factors driving investors to be net-short. USD/CHF Price Chart USD shows strength against the GBP. The GBP has weakened substantially against the USD in the past 24 hours. The Weakness of the pound sterling is reflective of the fact that the market and the Bank of England (BoE) have differing views of where they believe interest rates are going. Despite the BoE announcing that more interest rate hikes are on the way, markets have still reflected their lack of confidence in the currency. The hawkish Fed continues to drive the US Dollar's strength. GBP/USD Price Chart   Read next: US Dollar (USD) Expected To Strengthen As Investors Await Fed’s Interest Announcement (EUR/USD, AUD/USD), BoE are Expected To Raise Their Interest Rates (EUR/GBP), (AUD/USD) Showing Mixed Market Sentiment Signals, USD/CHF Is Bullish    Sources: finance.yahoo.com, bankofengland.co.uk, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Which stock market sector is currently interesting due to its volatility?

Which stock market sector is currently interesting due to its volatility?

Purple Trading Purple Trading 18.07.2022 07:57
Which stock market sector is currently interesting due to its volatility While long-term investors in physical shares are not too interested in volatility, CFD traders can make potentially very nice profits from it. However, equity markets are vast and it can happen that an interesting title slips through one’s fingers. This article will make sure that it doesn't happen. What is volatility and how is it created If you were to equate the words volatility and nervousness (or moodiness) you would not be far off the mark. Indeed, volatility is really a measure of nervousness in the markets and where there is nervousness, there is also uncertainty. Uncertainty in the markets can arise for many different reasons, but it usually happens before the release of important macroeconomic news (on our economic calendar), you can identify those by the three bulls' heads symbols) or during unexpected events with a major impact on a particular market sector or the geopolitical order of the world (natural disasters, wars).   On the charts of trading platforms, you can recognize a highly volatile market by the dynamically changing price of the instrument, the market is said to be going up or down, and if you switch to a candle chart, you may notice large candles. Conversely, non-volatile, calm markets move sideways without any significant dips or rises. Volatility can also be historical or implied, but we'll write about that another time. Now, let’s talk about how can one potentially profit from volatility and where to find suitable markets to do so.   How to potentially profit from volatility For intraday and swing traders, volatility is the key to their potential success. For traders, often the worst situation is the so-called "sideways" market movement, where the asset in question goes "sideways" without significant movements either up or down. With small and larger price fluctuations, traders can potentially generate interesting profits. One of the most volatile markets is the stock market, where some news can trigger very significant price movements. Events such as important economic reports, a stock split, or an acquisition announcement, for example, can move the price of a given stock. In addition, traders using CFDs for share trading can also use leverage to multiply any gains (and losses) in a given volatility.   The key to potential success is choosing the right stock titles. Some stocks and sectors can be considered more volatile, while others can go longer periods of time without significant fluctuations. So how do you look for volatility? Several indicators measure price movements in stocks, perhaps the most well-known is beta, which measures the volatility of a given stock compared to a benchmark stock index (typically the S&P 500 for US stocks). The beta indicator is listed on most well-known stock sites, but we can calculate it using the following formula: Beta = 1 In this case, the stock is highly correlated with the market and we can expect very similar movements to the benchmark index.   Beta < 1 If the beta is less than 1, we can consider the stock to be potentially less volatile than the stock market.   Beta > 1 Stocks with a beta greater than 1 are theoretically more volatile than the benchmark index. So, for example, if a stock's beta is 1.1, we think of it as 10% more volatile. It is stock titles with a beta above 1 that should be of most interest to investors looking to take advantage of volatility. However, it is not enough to monitor the beta alone, traders should not forget to monitor important news and fundamentals related to the company and the market in general. Thus, it is advisable to choose a few companies whose stocks have been significantly volatile in the past and where we expect strong movements due to positive and negative news to continue. So which sectors may be worth following? In which sectors can you potentially benefit from high volatility? Energy sector The energy companies sector has historically been one of the most volatile, as confirmed by the course of 2022 so far. The price development of energy companies is of course strongly linked to the price of energy commodities. These have had a great year - both natural gas and oil have appreciated by several tens of percent since the beginning of the year. However, this growth has not been without significant fluctuations, often by higher units of percent per day. The current geopolitical situation and growing talk of recession promise to continue the volatility in the sector. In the chart below, you can see the movement of Exxon Mobil Corp shares in recent weeks. Chart 1: Exxon Mobil shares on the MT4 platform on the H1 timeframe along with the 50 and 100-day moving averages Travel industry Shares of companies related to the travel industry have always been very volatile. According to data from the beginning of the year (NYU Stern), even the companies classified as hotels and casinos were the most volatile when measured by beta. Given the coronavirus pandemic, this is not surprising. However, the threat of coronavirus still persists and there is currently the talk of another wave. However, global demand for travel is once again strong. Airlines and hotels are beginning to recover from the previous two dry years. As a result, both positive and negative news promises potential volatility going forward. In the chart below, you can see the movement of Hilton Hotels Corp shares in recent weeks. Chart 2: Hilton Hotels shares on the MT4 platform on the H1 timeframe along with the 50 and 100-day moving averages Technology Technology is a very broad term - some companies in a given sector can be considered "blue chip" stocks, which can generally be less volatile and have the potential to appreciate nicely over time. These include Apple or Microsoft, for example. However, even these will not escape relatively high volatility in 2022. Traders looking for even stronger moves, however, will be more interested in smaller companies such as Uber, Zoom Technologies, Palantir, or PayPal. In the chart below, we can see the evolution of Twitter stock, which has undergone significant volatility in recent weeks. This was linked to the announcement of the acquisition (April gap) and its recent recall by Elon Musk. With both opposing parties facing a court battle, similarly wild news is just more water on the volatility mill. Chart 3: Twitter shares on the MT4 platform on the H1 timeframe along with the 50 and 100-day moving averages There are, of course, more sectors that are significantly volatile. Traders can follow companies in the healthcare sector, for example, where coronavirus vaccine companies are among the most interesting ones. Restaurants or aerospace and chemical companies can also be worth looking at. But few things can move stock markets as significantly as the economic cycle. We'll look at the impact of expansion and recession on stocks in our next article.  
Turbulent Times Ahead: Poland's Central Bank Signals Easing Measures

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Bearish Pressure Persists as Pound Eyes 1.2329 Level

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 05.06.2023 09:17
Early in the European session, the British pound is trading around 1.2443 below the 21 SMA and the 200 EMA. The 1-hour chart shows that the British pound reached the 1.2542 level and failed to consolidate above that level. We see a strong technical correction today, and the instrument is likely to continue falling towards the 5/8 Murray level over the next few days around 1.2329.   GBP/USD pair fell more than 100 pips in light of the solid data from the US labor market to a daily low of 1.2426 reached today in the European session. The upbeat US data indicates a possible reconsideration of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. So, GBP/USD will be under bearish pressure in the short term and could reach the psychological level of 1.20.   In the chart above, we can see that the British pound broke the downtrend channel but left a gap at about 1.24494. In the next few hours, GBP/USD could rebound and cover this gap. It could reach 1.2451 (6/8 Murray) and the 21 SMA around 1.2476. In case the British pound falls below 1.2420, it is expected to extend its decline.       Hence, GBP/USD could reach 5/8 Murray at 1.2329. The eagle indicator is giving a negative signal. Therefore, any technical bounce below the psychological level of 1.25 will be considered an opportunity to sell.   On the other hand, a pullback towards the SMA 21 located at 1.2476 or towards 1.2480 could be seen as a signal to sell, since the daily pivot point is located there. This serves as a signal that the pound could continue falling in the next few days.

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