FXMAG.COM asks

We're happy to share Dominik Podlaski's, analyst at Bitget views on the RBA decision, British pound, the US GDP and earnings. This week Australian CPI goes public what do you expect from the print and the RBA decision on February 7th? Since the beginning of October we have had some relief at the global market, although it didn’t change the looming threat of recession. In my opinion, Australian CPI already peaked in October, so I expect it to lower down to 6.8%. On the other hand, I believe it won’t change the strict attitude of the RBA. 15th of December EBC followed FED hawkish approach. Klaas Knot, member of EBC from Denmark, declared the raise of interest rates by 50 points in February and March. The continuation of monetary policy tightening in Q2 is also probable. RBA governor Philip Lowe highlighted multiple times their main goal – “… target for monetary policy in Australia is to achieve an inflation rate of 2–3 per cent…” Therefore, in my opinion RBA will follow the USA and the EU in this case and we can expect a raise by half a percentage point. On top of that, I expect the following RBA meetings to have similar results. Read next: USA Q4 GDP should show a growth to 2.5% with a 2.6% clip for real final sales and a tiny $2 bln inventory addition | FXMAG.COM (Source: Reserve Bank of Australia (rba.gov.au)). Do you expect GBP may be somehow boosted by PMIs on Tuesday? This PMI may give GBP slight spike, especially if we will have reading over 50, what could mean major trend reversal. Right now, GBP it’s regaining some of its strength. Unfortunately, in the long term it won’t matter, as U.K. economy may be severely hit by recession, as economists predict. Goldman Sachs forecast a 1.2% contraction in U.K. real GDP over 2023, while other major countries may expect small (but still) expansion. Therefore I perceive incoming weeks as calm before the storm for GBP, as in my scenario it will surely follow the U.K. shattered economy. (Source: GDP - International Comparisons: Key Economic Indicators - House of Commons Library (parliament.uk)) FED won’t consider changing their plans after the announcement of GDP, as in this case even the good news for 2022 won’t be satisfying with the terrible GDP forecasts for 2023 In my opinion, we will see higher GDP than expected 2% - in Q3 and Q4 revisions we’ve seen stronger economic momentum than expected. Despite of this rather positive surprise it will still on the decreasing trend. Therefore, I expect safe haven assets, like gold, silver and platinum, to thrive. We may also see higher demand for Government Bonds, although the hawkish attitude of FED may lower the amount of investors looking for them. Higher than expected print may also be impulse for DXY to have a relief bounce, but I’m afraid it will still remain in the downtrend. (Source: Economic Forecast for the US Economy (conference-board.org)) FED won’t consider changing their plans after the announcement of GDP, as in this case even the good news for 2022 won’t be satisfying with the terrible GDP forecasts for 2023. Additionally, the GDP measurement is inflated by CPI and its lagging indicator, while FEDs decisions will have an effect in the near future. Therefore, in my honest opinion, the FED will remain strictly hawkish regardless of the GDP reading. Huge rounds of redundancies by Microsoft, Google, Amazon measured in thousands of employees raised many questions about their status Dark clouds gathered over market giants. Huge rounds of redundancies by Microsoft, Google, Amazon measured in thousands of employees raised many questions about their status. Therefore I don’t expect the earnings data to be impressive, but I wouldn’t be surprised if none of them actually witnessed shrinking revenue. Despite what the audience may be thinking in my opinion it’s not a sign of weakness, but an adaptation. In particular, they will need to do some positive PR after the redundancies and slowed down growth. During times of market despair strongest should make bold moves instead of counting on stable growth, and that’s what we can expect from them in the incoming weeks. Microsoft just’ve announced multibillion dollar investments with OpenAI – creator of ChatGPT. Therefore I expect nothing less from other giants but fireworks as well. (Source: Microsoft and OpenAI extend partnership - The Official Microsoft Blog)

Naturally this week Google, Apple and McDonald's have been the centre of attention, but we shouldn't forget about Shell - one of energy sector companies, which, in 2022, performed really well. However, according to M4Markets, Shell has been an exception... FXMAG.COM: It's been a good year for energy companies - what do you expect from Shell earnings?  M4Markets: Shell has been an exception to the rule of energy companies generally doing better last year, particularly in the final quarter. The prelude facility suffered an outage that led to a reduction in LNG liquefaction volumes. Additionally, it suffered delays in developing a field in Mexico. Most recently, the company announced a restructuring under its new CEO, Wael Sawwan, to simplify the executive structure and reduce costs, and likely to see some (minor) job cuts. Those moves point towards the company having some cost pressures, particularly in the context of increased windfall taxes from 25% to 35%, which are expected to have a £1.7bn impact on UK and EU profits this quarter but a potentially more prominent impact on the next. Guidance is likely to be in focus, particularly on capital expenditures, as some companies have opted to pass on the windfall gains to their shareholders, helping support stock prices.  Last year's Black Friday was record-breaking, but what about the year 2022 as a whole. Was it good enough to let Amazon exceed earnings expectations?  After Amazon announced several cost-cutting initiatives, including 18000 job cuts, analysts have become less optimistic about the company's sales. Particularly considering retail sales numbers in numerous countries have come in lower than expected in the key holiday month, with growth in North America offset by contraction in its international business; lower expectations means it's easier to have a surprise beat. Read next: Samsung Demand For Semiconductors And Smartphones Remains Weak| FXMAG.COM On the other hand, a hefty share of Amazon's revenue now comes from AWS, its cloud division. Towards the end of last year, the cloud saw a significant slowing in demand, which could be 'the' surprise for Amazon's earnings. But maybe - and this is rather unlikely, rivals saw a drop in demand because there was a significant uptake at AWS, which could provide the surprise beat. Amazon's measures to support profit margins recently suggest the earnings won't be all that good, but that might get rescued by improved guidance if the cost-cutting allows for improved profitability later in the year.

Bitcoin has been performing really, really well recently, but the question is how will it react to all of crucial central banks' decisions this week. Bank of England is expected to choose 50bp variant, but it's not that sure as the Fed decision. FXMAG.COM: Bitcoin has been gaining for 4 weeks straight, but it's a tough week ahead. How high could the price of Bitcoin be on Friday evening? Michalis Efthymiou: Yes, the price of Bitcoin has gained momentum over the past 4 weeks, and this has largely been linked to specific influential factors. The bullish trend has been fueled by the weakening monetary policy as well as a strong economic outlook. Most economists and institutions, such as the IMF, have advised that the risks of a recession are fading. Both factors have resulted in a higher risk appetite and investor confidence throughout the market. This tends to be positive for assets such as cryptocurrencies and stocks. Investors were also keen to invest in the discounted price which was triggered by the FTX crisis. Bitcoin continues to show recovery signs with the total market capitalization increasing above $445 Million. Additionally, Bitcoin has also managed to hold a market share of more than 40%. However, investors should be cautious that the total cryptocurrency market volume this week has declined by 12%. Read next: Shell has been an exception to the rule of energy companies generally doing better last year, particularly in the final quarter| FXMAG.COM This could be related to investors holding off until further clarification is obtained from the Fed, ECB, and BoE. So could change after Thursday. In regard to how high the price can go, unfortunately this cannot be known for sure. However, it is clear the price is in a better position this month but has slowed potentially due to the monetary policy decisions ahead. FXMAG.COM: The Bank of England hikes the rate this Thursday. This decision seems to be crucial, as GBP is strikingly weak. Is it only about lagging monetary policy or something else? Michalis Efthymiou: Yes, the Bank of England’s base rate is 1% lower than the Fed’s Fund Rate. However, it should be noted that the pricing is not solely dependent on this element. The difference has already been priced into the exchange rate and is likely to have a minimal effect. Investors will now largely be concentrating on how much the 2 institutions will choose to hike this month. At the moment, the Federal Reserve is expected to hike 25 basis points, but the Bank of England’s decision is less certain. The Bank of England previously had 2 out of their 9 members vote to keep interest rates unchanged. In addition to this, investors are eager to gain further insights regarding the bank’s intentions for 2023. For example, whether they can foresee a cut in interest rates towards the end of the year.

Tomorrow Bank of England decides on interest rate. According to RoboForex's Andrey Goilov, situation in the UK is complicated as fighting inflation stays in contrary to avoiding recision, but it's high inflation, that is a crucial factor for the BoE. Our team this week also pay attention to gold prices, which, after going up significantly may be supported further from the technical and fundamental point of view. FXMAG.COM: Bank of England hikes the rate this Thursday. This decision seems to be crucial, as GBP is strikingly weak. Is it only about lagging monetary policy or something else? Andrey Goilov (RoboForex): The British economy is, indeed, not in the best situation, and this makes it harder for the Bank of England to increase interest rates. Many sources are still pointing on a serious risk of recession in the country, and mass strikes can make it even worse. On the other hand, inflation is still high but it must be mentioned that its growth is slowing down. In November last year, it was 10.7%, and in December it dropped by 0.2%. High inflation is a crucial factor for the Bank of England to make a decision to increase the interest rate even in such complicated economic circumstances. The British pound, however, demonstrated a good correction against the US dollar, and since September last year it has managed to rise to 1.24. The second attempt of bouncing off this level can provoke a serious decrease because a Double Top reversal pattern may still form. FXMAG.COM: What's next for gold prices, after rising 16% in 3 months and after pretty good data from the U.S. economy for Q4 2022? Gold price has neared the upper border of the descending channel that started long ago in 2020. Hence, technically speaking there are risks of a downward correction before gold heads for new highs. Buyers need to secure above 2,000: then the upper border of the channel will be broken away, and the three-year long correction will end. This might be the beginning of a new bullish trend in gold. Fundamentally speaking, the price may also go on growing because markets remain concerned about a global recession, and Central Banks will slow down their tightening policies in the nearest future. The Fed has already got prepared for lifting the interest rate by just 25 base points because inflation in the US is slowing down, and in the medium run this can support the precious metal. Moreover, the demand for gold remains high, even exceeding the peak registered in 2011. Central Banks have made a serious impact on the movements of gold quotes by buying the second large volume of the metal in history. Read next: Eurozone inflation: We believe the issue's roots were building up before the war, and some are saying it was groundwork set by the ECB| FXMAG.COM Visit RoboForex

Who doesn't like weeks like this one? Central banks' decision, earnings season... Although major tech companies report their earnings this week with Alphabet and Apple leading the pack, they're BP, Shell and Exxon, that should be in focus too. What about gold's future? Let's hear from Ali Daylami, Chief Market Data Scientist at BITMarkets. It's been a good year for energy companies - what do you expect from BP earnings? Ali Daylami: 2022 was phenomenal for energy giants. We’ve witnessed a spike in oil & gas prices amid constricted supplies caused by political and economic turmoil. Investors shifted their asset allocation from valuable stocks and cryptocurrencies towards energy companies. We’ve seen this at BITmarkets; crypto prices were hammered, but have been very bullish in the new year. I believe that given omnipresent forecasts that oil prices will continue to rally and the concurrent upscaling by energy companies, 2023 can bring about higher profit margins for energy sector behemoths. Last year, the S&P 500 Energy index propelled over 45% with a notable winner being the BP stock, which gained more than 30%. A quarter not to be forgotten, BP beat Wall Street yet again with bumper results. Earnings per share of $2.59 represented a 50% upside from analyst expectations, reflecting the company’s efforts in upscaling global operations to meet skyrocketing demand for energy. Hand-in-hand with its endeavors in accelerating the transition towards sustainable renewables, I believe BP’s upcoming quarterly figures are set to surpass expectations. What's next for gold prices, after rising 16% in 3 months and after pretty good data from the U.S. economy for Q4 2022? Gold was a victim of a calamitous 2022 for the markets, characterized by contrasting impacts of red-hot inflation and central banks, specifically the Fed, aggressively hiking interest rates to offset the wounding effects of inflation. Since October of 2022, gold retrieved its status as an inflation hedge, recovering in a rapid manner and impressively breaching the psychologically-significant $1,900 price tag. China re-opened its economy and lifted its strict COVID restrictions, and the US economy has also reversed the GDP growth downtrend for another quarter, driven by higher consumer spending; thus, releasing the bullion bulls into a frenzy of investments into gold. Read next: Eurozone inflation: We believe the issue's roots were building up before the war, and some are saying it was groundwork set by the ECB| FXMAG.COM It's not just gold futures which grew exponentially. Gold-backed cryptocurrencies like Tether Gold climbed relentlessly in 2023. At BITmarkets, we’ve seen a rise in trading activity for gold-focused assets for a couple months now. Arguably losing its characteristic as a ‘safe haven’ for over half a year, the precious metal is back in the spotlight, and I expect gold prices to escalate given expectations of an imminent recession in the horizon. Yet, the slowdown of interest rate bumps and the possibility of rate cutting given inflation is cooling down presents an alternative scenario for gold and other commodities. As the S&P500 index rose by 6.6% year-to-date and Bitcoin soared nearly 40% in a months’ time, we may witness a transition from utility and conservative investments towards equities and cryptocurrencies.

We asked BitGet's analyst about his views on the future of gold prices and the possible Bitcoin price range at the end of the week full of macoeconomic events. What's next for gold prices, after rising 16% in 3 months and after pretty good data from the U.S. economy for Q4 2022? Last 3 months brought gold very close to the all-time highs. General audience is obviously extremely bullish on this asset, but technical analysis shows a more objective picture of the current situation. Gold remains in a descending broadening wedge formation since July 2020. Right now it is struggling against one of the final resistances standing in the way to all-time highs. Technically, there are 3 more or less probable scenarios in this case. Bearish one. The resistance zone so close to ATH (all-time high) price is too strong, so gold gets rejected. The trend reverses and the value of gold follows the formation. Based on the previous history, such retracement might take up to 9 months. At the start of Q4 2023 the lower band of wedge places itself around 1580 USD. According to TA (technical analysis) this is a scenario with a low percentage of happening. To occur it requires the global economy to deal with the first half of 2023 extremely well. Read next: The British pound, however, demonstrated a good correction against the US dollar, and since September last year it has managed to rise to 1.24 | FXMAG.COM Bullish one. Price goes through the resistance and afterwards retests it. Filling these conditions within the incoming weeks leaves gold almost in the price discovery zone. It means the value of assets is determined purely by the demand and the supply. In this case the force driving the gold price up is the global GDP, which is totally crushed in the first half of 2023. This scenario goes along with the expectations of the new lows (higher lows or lower lows) for the global markets by the end of Q2 2023. Every downward movement of markets makes gold an attractive safe haven for their funds. Still bullish, but in a higher time frame. Quite probable according to the TA. Gold bounces off resistance as global markets remain in bear market relief rallies. Then it retests former ATH from 2011-12 and 1W 200 EMA. Both of them while acting as support result in a great impulse to the upward movement. Therefore, those two confluences are a great catalyst for the gold upward movement. This way price prints one of the most popular Wyckoff schematic with price pivoting in the middle of broadening wedge to create Head And Shoulders formation. This eventually ends in breaking out and going for the price discovery area. Bitcoin has been gaining for 4 weeks straight, but it's a tough week ahead. How high could be price of Bitcoin on Friday evening? The price could go as high as 25k USD$ per Bitcoin, if the necessary conditions are met. Although it’s important to remember there is a high chance of price volatility in the markets and the returns are not guaranteed. First of all, the recent Bitcoin movement is highly related to DXY weakness and upward momentum of the S&P 500. This double impulse brought BTC to the price level we see today. The uncertainty on the market results from the high time frame pivotal position of both DXY and the S&P 500. First of them barely holds around the crucial area of support, while the latter one is on the verge of breakout & trend reversal. Therefore, the incoming FOMC decision regarding interest rates will set up the pace for in coming weeks. Most probable one of the forecasted scenarios is hiking rates by 25bps. This decision is already priced in current trends, but as people sell the news, we may encounter a dip in all markets. Increasing rates by 50bps would crush DXY hopes for a bounce. This scenario is quite bullish for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, as it means rallying continuation. Although the probability of this happening is very low. On the other hand, a positive impulse for DXY means retracement for the crypto market. Therefore, any “positive” surprise by FOMC means Bitcoin diving down at least to the last strong range. This forecast is the least likely to happen.

Is the inflation related only to the war in Ukraine? What's ahead of Bitcoin? Let's see what Joe Jeffrries (Market Analyst at Eightcap) has in mind. FXMAG.COM: Do you think the next major drop of the Eurozone inflation will take place after any real sign of ceasefire in the eastern Europe? Joe Jeffriess: Interesting question. While yes, the war in eastern Europe contributed to the current inflation problems, it could be seen as icing on the cake. We believe the issue's roots were building up before the war, and some are saying it was groundwork set by the ECB over the last ten years that led to the inflation issue. Focusing on the last three years, the pandemic looks to be one of the main drivers. Supply chains and economies stopped and added to that massive government-led stimulus. While supply chains remained stressed, spending increased, and restrictions stopped, supply wasn't ready for the demand influx. This was definitely a unique situation combined with the pandemic. We also had record-low rates supporting easier borrowing. Read next: At the moment, the Federal Reserve is expected to hike 25 basis points, but the Bank of England’s decision is less certain. Previously, 2 members voted to keep rates unchanged| FXMAG.COM So if we do see a ceasefire, will that stop the current sanctions? We don't think so. Oil, one of the key short-term drivers of cost increase after the start of the war, has dropped back to $78. That's a level last seen in January 2022, a price level below the spike seen once the conflict started. We feel it's not really a factor now. Ukrainian wheat production and export is another factor, but will it return to pre-war levels again after a ceasefire? We don't think so. Based on the above, we don't think a ceasefire will greatly impact inflation in the short term. Supply chains, spending, and ECB policy will continue to dictate the situation.  FXMAG.COM: Bitcoin has been gaining for 4 weeks straight, but it's a tough week ahead. How high could be price of Bitcoin on Friday evening? Our view continues to see its fortunes in two main areas. US inflation and the USD look to have a big impact on the coin as it closely tracked the Nasdaq for a considerable period. As inflation soared and equities fell, we saw BTC follow lower. As the Fed's message started to soften, things are looking rosier for Bitcoin. Since hitting its 2022 low, just over 50% has been added to this year's high. Price also looks to be confirming a weekly chart breakout from an ending diagonal pattern. We remain bullish on Bitcoin. As long as Fed policy continues to veer toward the dovish side and the inflation picture continues to improve, we will remain more on the bull side of Bitcoin. How high will it be Friday evening? If I could tell you that, I don't think I'd be working for anyone right now! Being serious, if 22,500 support remains in play, and the Feds statement supports lower rate rises and continues to confirm inflation is easing, we feel it could try to retest this year's high at 23,900 or surpass it. Finally, industry chaos is the second factor; hopefully, we have seen the last of the chaotic surprises. If the industry can remain stable and continue to strengthen, this could put confidence back into the public and bring new money back to the market.

Let's hear from Alex Kuptsikevich, Senior Financial Analyst at FxPro, who answers FXMAG.COM team questions. We asked Alex about Australian CPI, UK PMIs, British pound and the US GDP. This week Australian CPI goes public what do you expect from the print and the RBA decision on February 7th? On average, market analysts expect inflation to accelerate to 7.5%. It is better to be prepared for lower data and a slowdown in CPI to 7.2-7.3%. The Australian dollar has risen more than 14% from its October lows, helping to reduce external price pressures. Also worth noting is the 14.6k drop in employment in December and the stubborn unemployment rate of 3.5% for the past six months. In other words, the labour market needs to do more to accelerate inflation. At the same time, the construction market has been in steady decline since October 2021, which is a significant negative signal for the economy. As in most developed countries, such a disposition could already be working towards lower annual price growth. If we are right, AUDUSD could give back some of January's gains as the market reassesses the outlook for monetary policy. The weak data reinforced the double top formation signal in the GBPUSD The UK PMI indices recorded another month of declining activity. However, the rise in the manufacturing PMI from 45.3 to 46.7 suggests that the rate of decline is slowing. The services PMI fell from 49.9 to 48.0, clearly indicating that the recession is spreading to the broader economy. The CBI's industrial orders balance was also a nasty surprise, falling from -6 to -17, the lowest since February 2021. The weak data reinforced the double top formation signal in the GBPUSD, which is turning lower for the second time since mid-December as it approaches 1.2450. Traders are likely betting that the Bank of England will struggle to maintain the pace of policy tightening in light of the economic data released. This is not for nothing, given the reversal in the inflation trend. Read next: The Aussie Pair Is Above 0.70$, GBP/USD Pair Lost Its Level Of 1.24$| FXMAG.COM The GDP report has a good chance of delivering an unpleasant surprise, pushing the dollar further down The impact of US GDP on the markets isn't a trivial issue. Much depends on the balance between growth and inflation. If US growth comes in at or above expectations, the Fed may have more incentive to keep raising rates for longer than the markets are currently pricing in. This would be negative for equities and oil but positive for the dollar. Such a market reaction is long overdue. However, it is still too early to confidently bet on the Fed's hawkishness to take on the entire market. The GDP report has a good chance of delivering an unpleasant surprise, pushing the dollar further down. Still, it is highly likely to push equities and metals higher in the short term. 

This week hasn't been full of game-changing events. Apart from the Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision, it's German CPI release on Friday, that makes it more intense. Speaking of risk assets - recent Bitcoin price movement may be called a bit mysterious... FXMAG.COM: Bitcoin rose after the Fed rate hike and Jerome Powell's press conference, but we could call this price movement a quite "steady" bounce, why is that? Is Bitcoin improving in terms of volatility...? Dominik Podlaski (Bitget): First of all, traders are always prepared for various outcomes of such market changing events as Jerome Powell's press conference. A 25 bps interest rates hike has been an option with the highest probability of happening, thus it didn’t provoke a lot of volatility in the markets. This change was so called already “priced in”. Secondly this was literally the best option for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Raising interest rates by 50 bps would slaughter traditional markets, including S&P 500. In effect Bitcoin would follow them. Similar effects would have leaving interest rates as they were. This would be definitely bullish for DXY and inversely for cryptocurrencies. Last but not least there is a lot of uncertainty in the markets right now. Therefore even “positive” news are not an impulse for a rally, as investors are cautious. Everyone prefers to stay low instead of too exposed. (Source: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/R1mi7bZT-The-future-of-BITCOIN-with-diminishing-returns/) Bitcoin volatility has been on the decline since the very beginning of its existence. This key trait results from two main factors, besides many other smaller ones. The most important is the theory of diminishing returns. With each consecutive bull run Bitcoin brings less and less ROI - approximately 5 times less each bull market. This has a direct effect in the yearly decrease of volatility. Additionally with every following year of the cryptocurrencies adoption Bitcoin is treated more as an asset for storing the value. Exactly like gold, not a risky object of high ROI as other cryptocurrencies. Speaking of which king FXMAG.COM: Are you of the opinion German CPI on Friday will confirm an inflation slowdown? Slowdown? Yes, general slowdown of inflation can be seen all over the markets. Real victory over inflation? Not very likely. Germany found itself in a tough economic situation, as prolonged war in the East disrupted its supply chain. Both food and energy prices are undermined, because Ukraine and Russia were an important part of their economic strategy. Christian Blindner, Germany’s finance minister, shared his forecast of 2023 CPI to be at 7% average. Analytics consider it optimistic. Therefore there isn’t much space from December CPI reading of 8.6%. Read next: Disney Plans To Cut Costs And Jobs, Google Is Now Rolling Out AI Chatbot| FXMAG.COM Despite there are some positive accents at the markets, the high probability of stagflation (extended period of high inflation) is holding investors back. The recession is still looming behind the corner, so the January German CPI reading might be even slightly higher than the December one. (Source: https://www.bild.de/politik/inland/politik-inland/christian-lindner-fuer-2023-rechnen-wir-mit-7prozent-inflation-82397190.bild.html)

It's definitely tough time for British pound which is trapped between Bank of England decision and the economic situation. We wonder what could a decent GDP print on Friday provide the pound sterling with. Let's hear from Oanda's Craig Erlam. FXMAG.COM: After a 50bp rate hike, could promising GDP print provide further support for GBP? Craig Erlam (Oanda): The UK is in a very tough position in that the economy is weak, rates are high and rising and inflation is still not far from its peak. It's expected to fall considerably this year, as per BoE forecasts, but as we've seen over the last 12 months, we live in unpredictable times. A better GDP print should provide support for GBP as it would indicate the economy is showing some resilience in the face of extremely challenging circumstances while not really being detrimental to the goal of getting inflation back to 2%. Read next: USD/JPY Is Below 131.00 Again, The Aussie Is Close To 0.70$| FXMAG.COM

Last time our team reached out to Cryptiony - a company which made an app, that helps investors tax crypto. Today we provide you with an interview with Bartosz Milczarek, Chief Executive Officer. FXMAG.COM: How do you see 2023 in terms of crypto regulation? Is there any sign of a global consensus on the horizon? Bartosz Milczarek (Cryptiony CEO): The year 2023 will certainly be important in terms of regulation of this industry. Since last year, we have been observing significant progress in regulatory work. However, it is unlikely that these regulations will be implemented in 2023. It is also difficult to talk about global regulations. Nevertheless, in many regions of the world, work is underway to regulate this industry. Work on the MiCA regulation, which covers the entire European Union, has been underway since 2018, the European Parliament is to vote in April this year, and if it is approved by the EU Council, it may come into force as early as 2024 - after 18 months of voting. The MiCA regulation is the first attempt to comprehensively regulate the functioning of crypto-assets in trading. The European Union is already working on further regulations on administrative cooperation covering tax reporting on cryptocurrencies - a proposal to regulate this area has been proposed in the DAC8 directive, which may enter into force in 2026. This directive would impose an obligation on entities enabling cryptocurrency trading to provide information on transactions their clients to the relevant tax authorities. In 2022, we recorded the collapse of the Terra project or the bankruptcy of the FTX exchange. Such events will only speed up regulatory work. On February 1, 2023, the British HM Treasury announced a proposal for new regulations governing the cryptocurrency market and announced legal consultations that will last until April 30, 2023. According to the local authority, their goal is to introduce clear regulations regarding the cryptocurrency industry. It is important that the local authority announced that the cryptocurrency industry is ultimately to be subject to the same regulations and institutions as traditional financial markets - taking into account the specifics of the industry. The proposed regulations by the UK government have a similar purpose to the MiCA in the EU, which is why they are called the small MiCA. Similar regulatory work is also taking place in the United States. In 2022, we recorded the collapse of the Terra project or the bankruptcy of the FTX exchange. Such events will only speed up regulatory work. What is your main product? How many people are currently using it? Are these customers who bill you monthly/quarterly/or just annually? Our main product is a web application for self-settlement of tax on cryptocurrency trading. With the help of the application, the user of the cryptocurrency market can independently settle the cryptocurrency turnover in a few minutes. We have already had 2 tax seasons in Poland behind us, in a moment, from February 15, we will start the third year of operation in Poland. From January 2023, we also offer our services in the UK. Surprisingly, in the UK tax settlement on crypto activity is much more difficult than in Poland. i.e. there are more complex methods of calculating revenues and costs, as well as more operations should be included in such a settlement, e.g. crypto-crypto transactions, airdrops, staking. Customers settle the crypto tax in annual returns, so our business model is also based on annual subscriptions. Read next: Louis Vuitton celebrates 200th anniversary. Company teams up with Yayoi Kusama to release 10.000 NFT project| FXMAG.COM What do you need so much money for? Would further bootstrapping be impossible? Development from own funds would certainly be much slower. We raised over PLN 2,500,000 (EUR 500,000) from two American Venture Capital funds and one Business Angel from Poland. We needed these funds to expand into the UK and completely redesign the app to make it even easier to use. If we look at the pre-seed financing round through the prism of the Polish pre-seed rounds, where the median for the first financing round is PLN 1.1 million, we actually achieved an above-average result. However, if we take into account that these funds were allocated to foreign expansion, it is not such a large amount. Let's note that TaxBit - offering a similar application in the US, raised USD 100 million in one round, and raised over USD 235 million in total - but they still offer their services only in the USA. It should also be remembered that having VC investors or Business Angels on board is not only financial resources, but also the so-called "smart money". We have support from people who have experience in scaling businesses. Read the second part of the interview here!

Find below continuation of the interview with Bartosz Milczarek, Chief Executive Officer of Cryptiony, who we talk with about the company and crypto industry. The first part of the interview is available here. FXMAG.COM: What are your assumptions for your development on the UK market? Are you going to take over an entity, create a "subsidiary" or control the whole thing remotely? Bartosz Milczarek (Cryptiony CEO): We have launched a branch in the UK: Cryptiony Ltd. However, the nature of our business - an application in the Software-as-a-Service model allows us to run this business largely remotely. From the very beginning of the company's existence, the team has been working remotely. What do your shares in the project look like now? New entrants only support you financially, has the shareholding structure changed? Acquiring a VC investor or a Business Angel usually means selling part of the shares. This is also the case with us. However, the founding members still hold the majority of the company's shares. New investors not only support us financially, but also with their "smart-money" - which I mentioned. This was crucial for us when we were looking for investors. Our investors have extensive experience in scaling local projects to global businesses, they have extensive networking - also in the crypto industry - which we are happy to take advantage of. We are not planning a debut on the stock exchange. Next fundraising round is planned - later this year. Are you planning another fundraising round, or are you planning to go public? We are not planning a debut on the stock exchange. Next fundraising round is planned - later this year. We believe that we must quickly expand our activities to other countries. We have in mind the EU directive DAC8, which we talked about earlier. The entry into force of this directive and the imposition of the obligation to report customer transactions to the tax authorities would certainly strongly increase the demand for the Cryptiony application. Although such regulations raise a lot of controversy, it seems that this direction is inevitable. More and more accounting offices are interested in the subject of cryptocurrency settlement. They undertake to settle them for companies as well as for individuals. Assuming that the trend will definitely intensify and it will become more and more common, does it not pose a big risk for you in development? Definitely not. In addition to our main product: an application for self-accounting for cryptocurrencies, we also offer a separate platform for entities such as accounting offices or tax offices. These types of entities without automation tools have a much harder time settling taxes with their clients, they also do it slower. So far, not much has been heard about our second product. Last year, we launched a separate platform for entities specializing in cryptocurrency tax settlements based on the MVP (Minimum Viable Product) prepared by us for entities that contacted us. In 2023, we plan to significantly expand our activities in this area, we are observing an increase in interest of this type of entities in the settlement of crypto trading, and thus the need for automation of this process. In what time horizon do you see the stabilization of the cryptocurrency market in the context of regulations in Poland? What must change? The entry into force of EU regulations, i.e. the previously mentioned MiCA regulation and the DAC8 directive, will be of key importance. Currently, we have very simple and investor-friendly cryptocurrency tax regulations in Poland. I've heard voices that the government can change the regulations and follow the British ones more closely. Read next: Bartosz Milczarek, CEO at Cryptiony: Customers settle the crypto tax in annual returns, so our business model is also based on annual subscriptions | FXMAG.COM In light of the events of 2022, what do you see as the biggest threat to the crypto market in the coming years? The scale of frauds, pathologies or bankruptcies of cryptocurrency projects that took place in 2022 shows that regulations in this industry are necessary. It's important not to be too strict. The lack of regulations or their too late implementation may significantly harm the further dynamic development of the industry. It is therefore essential that governments adopt the golden rule of thumb. Do you think that with the introduction of CBDC on a larger scale, stablecoins will be forgotten? Not necessarily, CBDC will rather act as digital cash - controlled by governments. Cryptocurrencies, including stablecoins, will continue to be an alternative to the traditional financial system. There is a lot of talk about the introduction of CBDC, but there are still few details on how it will be implemented, and it is quite crucial to whether users will switch from stablecoins to CBDC.

Turkey's central bank will decide on rates on Thursday - FXMAG.COM asked Walid Koudmani, Chief Market Analyst at XTB, what can be expected, considering high inflation, an earthquake and the country's generally lackluster economic situation. Naturally, the recent earthquake might have made the decision more difficult for the central bank While some analysts believe that Turkey's central bank will lower interest rates in an attempt to stimulate economic recovery, it will be important to keep in mind that the country's inflation remains a significant problem to contend with amid an overall troubling macro situation. Naturally, the recent earthquake might have made the decision more difficult for the central bank as keeping a higher interest rate in times of economic crisis could add fuel to the fire, however it must be careful to not overextend itself and ultimately end up making other problems worse. In either case, it appears that opinions are split on the decision and there is a general uncertainty surrounding the decision which will only be clarified once we receive the actual news and which may have a significant impact on the already volatile Turkish Lira. Read next: The Pound Gained After The Publication Of PMI Reports, Euro Is Below 1.07, USD/JPY Pair Is Above 134.50| FXMAG.COM

Crude oil related loonie has weakened recently and two crucial macro events take place on Tuesday. We asked HF Markets' analyst what does she expect from Canadian dollar this week. This week's data have proven very interesting as they back the BoC scenario for pausing its policy tightening Andria Pichidi (Market Analyst at HF Markets): The BoC announced a pause in rate hikes at its January policy meeting, while the hot January and December employment reports gave rise to fears that the Bank will have to resume rate hikes. However this week's data have proven very interesting as they back the BoC scenario for pausing its policy tightening. Read next: Undoubtedly, the Shanghai upgrade will significantly impact ETH's price and volatility | FXMAG.COM US dollar against Canadian dollar - next resistance area stands at 1.3540-1.3570 Inflation is down +0.5% m/m vs +0.7% expected and headline core 5.0% y/y vs 5.5% expected. CPI is down on a y/y basis, slipping to 6.3% in December and has decelerated from the 8.1% y/y in June which was the fastest since 1983. Also, retail sales popped 0.5% in January. The data added to the Canadian Dollar’s selloff as they downplayed risks for further tightening from the BoC. The rates market was pricing in a 25% chance of a Bank of Canada hike on March 8.  USDCAD rose to 1.3500 from 1.3455 after the report. Next Resistance area stands at 1.3540-1.3570.

As the US GDP release is almost here, we asked Dominik Podlaski (Bitget) to share his view on tomorrow's print - would we see a near 3% growth for the third time in a row? Until the FED has the inflation under control, it is expected to keep raising interest rates Dominik Podlaski (Analyst at Bitget): According to the top world economic analytics it is highly improbable US GDP will see such a reading for Q1 2023. It rather seems rational to see reading even below 0% in the Q1 with the lowest point in the late Q2 of 2023. The bounce we’ve seen in the second half of 2022 didn’t change the hawkish attitude of the FED and their plans for monetary policy tightening. FED statements and global economy forecasts suggest further decrease of US GDP in the first half of 2023.Despite interest rates being highest since June 2006 the inflation is still way too high over the desired level. Until the FED has the inflation under control, it is expected to keep raising interest rates. Therefore, there are forecasts of them reaching levels around 5.25% in 2023, which means the first half of the 2023 won’t bring relief to the markets. Read next: Litecoin blockchain has introduced a counterpart to the Ordinals protocol | FXMAG.COM In summary the effects of the inflation are already seen all over the world, but to have the markets flourish again we have to wait for the monetary tightening policy to have the effect. Until then both GDP and stocks will be under heavy pressure. Sources: https://www.kiplinger.com/personal-finance/banking/savings-rates https://www.conference-board.org/research/us-forecast

The Ethereum Shaghai udpate is getting closer and closer. Judging from the past – could the Ethereum Shanghai update can affect the token's price? Serhii Zhdanov (EXMO CEO): The upcoming Shanghai upgrade is an important event for the market. It is second only to the Merge in terms of significance to the crypto industry. The update allows users to withdraw staked ETH and includes several improvements to the system. Typically, upgrades like Shanghai add new features and functionality to the Ethereum network Undoubtedly, the Shanghai upgrade will significantly impact ETH's price and volatility. However, it is difficult to predict the market reaction. The Merge is a great example of this. The reaction of market participants to the upgrade was quite positive. Investors and speculators appreciated it. ETH’s price went up rapidly but was followed by profit-taking. However, it's worth noting that at that time, the market situation was completely different with general oversold conditions and a storm of negative news. At that moment, any good news could significantly move ETH's price up. And the fact that the upgrade went live successfully added positive energy to the dull market. Read next: The AUD/USD Pair Remains Under Selling Pressure, The GBP/USD Pair Is Below 1.21 Again| FXMAG.COM Currently, market conditions are different. The market has risen, there is good news and many believe that the bull market has already begun. Typically, upgrades like Shanghai add new features and functionality to the Ethereum network. This certainly attracts the attention of both long-term and short-term traders, and they can push the price of ETH to new local highs. The opposite effect is also possible. If the upgrade is unsuccessful or there are any issues during the launch, the effect on ETH's price can be negative. Therefore, it is worth correctly assessing the risks, especially for short-term traders. As for ETH's price, you need to keep an eye on the $1,700 level, which is a strong resistance level. If this level is broken through, there is a possibility that ETH can go above $2,000.

FXMAG.COM asked Craig Erlam about the incoming Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision. RBNZ is expected to go for a 50bp rate hike, why could be the move "that" aggresive? Craig Erlam (Market Analyst at Oanda): The RBNZ may have little choice but to be that aggressive given the path of inflation and how far above target it is. Every country faces its own challenges which will make returning it to target challenging and in this case, the tight labour market threatens to make inflation much more stubborn and wage pressures intense. It's important that the central bank addresses this before it becomes a much more entrenched issue. Read next: Walid Koudmani about Turkey's central bank decision: In either case, it appears that opinions are split on the decision| FXMAG.COM

We had an opportunity to ask Santa Zvaigzne-Sproge about the incoming EU CPI release. A slight uptick in Eurozone inflation is expected, but would the euro care about it on Thursday? Inflation is one of many factors that may have an effect on the euro. Generally, higher inflation puts downward pressure on the domestic currency as its purchasing power diminishes. On the other hand, the ECB has stipulated that its fundamental goal is to reduce inflation via monetary tightening, which includes rising interest rates. Rising interest rates have the opposite effect – it pushes the domestic currency higher as the money becomes “more expensive” and less available. If the reported EU CPI data is reported at the expected level of 8.6%, it may not have any additional effect on the euro Another factor to remember is that markets tend to react not only to the absolute numbers of macroeconomic news (such as EU CPI) but also to the surprise compared to the expected data. This means that if the reported EU CPI data is reported at the expected level of 8.6%, it may not have any additional effect on the euro despite an uptick in inflation compared to the previous month. This goes hand in hand with the opinion that in case a scenario is possible to come true, the markets may already reflect this scenario before the actual news comes out. In other words, by the time EU CPI is announced on Thursday, EUR/USD exchange rate may already reflect a slight increase in inflation from 8.5% to 8.6% – and therefore may not have a considerable effect on the euro once the news comes out. As higher inflation may push the ECB to continue rising interest rates – and therefore eliminate the downward pressure on the euro – higher-than-expected CPI data may have a limited downward effect on the euro. Read next: The US manufacturing and services PMIs are expected to reach 47.4 and 47.3 respectively| FXMAG.COM Taking into consideration all of the above, the largest potential effect on the euro may have an unexpected decrease in inflation pushing the euro higher as it may indicate that the ECB’s monetary tightening is working, and the potential for a “soft landing” may be increasing. Santa Zvaigzne-Sproge, CFA, Head of Investment Advice Department at Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis, and opinions contained, referenced, or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. The personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement, or investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76,41% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

FXMAG.COM asked Michael Hewson, Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets, for his view on the US GDP release. Does he think we would see a near 3% growth third time in a row? Michael Hewson: Despite the rise in interest rates, we’ve seen over the past few months, the US economy has held up reasonably well, with strong growth in Q3 as well as Q4, after a weak H1. The first iteration of US Q4 GDP saw the economy expand by 2.9%, which was above expectations of 2.5%. Personal consumption was a little disappointing, slipping back to 2.1%, which wasn’t that surprising given that November and December retail sales contracted. This trend will probably rebound in the January personal spending and income numbers. Read next: USD/JPY Pair Is Above 134.00, EUR/USD Pair Holds Below 1.07, GBP/USD Pair Managed To Rebound| FXMAG.COM

While analysing markets FXMAG.COM wondered, what would analysts address recent crude oil decline to. Let's hear from FxPro analyst, who shares his view on this one. Alex Kupstikevich (FxPro): Oil is in a situation where both very positive and negative news puts pressure on the price. And only moderately positive data supports it. Oil has been under sustained selling pressure since the beginning of last week and remains in a longer-term downtrend as high-interest rates and fears of an imminent recession in many developed countries suppress risk appetite. A strong labour market typically implies increased fuel demand, so many speculators have been slow to open bearish bets It is important to note that data on consumer activity in the US and Europe and the global labour market has continued to exceed analysts' and market participants' forecasts, suggesting resilience in demand. We can attribute these economic surprises to the fact that oil has managed to avoid the apparent downward trend from June to September last year. A strong labour market typically implies increased fuel demand, so many speculators have been slow to open bearish bets. Prices have also been supported by occasional verbal interventions from Russian or OPEC officials, which suggest an impending shortage of oil or oil products. On the other hand, it is difficult for oil to rise when the world's central banks have announced a crusade against inflation. A string of solid data, combined with signs that inflation has become more 'sticky', has led to a tightening of the rhetoric from regulators. Markets are now pricing in higher interest rates in the coming months. Read next: Acccording to FXPro's analyst, near-term global outlook for USD remains bullish | FXMAG.COM However, it is essential to remember that monetary policy operates with up to 6 months lag, and the effects of last year's hikes are far from being felt in the economy. These concerns dampen market risk appetite by preventing better-than-expected statistics from fully materialising.

Yesterday Eurostat released inflation data. Year-on-year consumer price index came at 8.5% beating expectations. Let's have a detailed look at the data with Michalis Efthymiou, Market Analyst at NAGA. Previously, the European economy was successfully able to bring down the overall inflation rate down from 10.6%, but struggled to bring down core figures. The core CPI figures are mainly related to services as they do not include food, drinks and energy. However, the region is growingly struggling to bring down inflation and has been unable to stop core inflation figures from rising.This is likely to trigger a more restrictive monetary policy from the ECB for two reasons. First is that the ECB will be looking to put further pressure on demand in order to bring inflation down and second in order to protect the value of the Euro as other central banks are also battling with resilient inflation levels. Read next: "Green" cryptocurrencies - would Elon Musk become a market mover once again? | FXMAG.COM The Euro’s price movement is less certain as the Federal Reserve also is considering a more restrictive stance and the Dollar’s safe haven status is again coming into play. However, higher interest rates have a clear effect on the stock market such as the DAX, CAC and IBEX. If the ECB’s terminal rate does increase to 4% and above, the stock market will be pressured by less consumer spending, an increase in the cost of debt and higher bond yields.Risk Warning: "Derivatives are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 88.11% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading derivatives with this provider. This is not investment advice."Content is approved.

We asked Ole Hansen (Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo), about crude oil, which trades below $80. The question is what could affect the prices in the near future? Ole Hansen (Saxo): In crude oil, we are increasingly likely to see a year of two distinctive halves. The first half will comprise a market that remains rangebound, with global growth worries offsetting robust and rising demand from China and India. Later in the year, we see an overriding risk of the market beginning to tighten as a recession in Europe and the US fails to materialize thereby supporting a swing from market surplus to deficit. In addition to this, the prolonged war in Ukraine is creating difficulties for Russia to maintain its current level of production, primarily due to difficulties in rerouting its oil products away from Europe. What's more, there is increased competition from refiners in the Middle East, an emerging refinery hub that will see capacity grow even further during the second half. Crude oil, rangebound since November, continues to lack the directional input that may see it break out of established ranges, for Brent between $80 and $89, and for WTI between $73 and $83. The strength of China's economic data helped offset continued concerns regarding the economic outlook in the US and Europe—where interest rates look set to rise further in the coming months. These developments, together with a softer dollar and prompt spreads indicating a tightening market, supported a small weekly gain. In Brent, a weekly close above its 21-DMA at $83.75 may signal some additional upside momentum, but overall, we do not see a breakout of the mentioned ranges anytime soon. Read next: Important Week For The Australian Dollar And Japanese Yen, BoJ And RBA Monetary Policy Decision Ahead| FXMAG.COM

UK GDP reached [VALUE] beating/meeting market expectations. Let's hear from Michael Hewson (CMC Markets). Michael Hewson (CMC Markets): The UK economy managed to improve on its GDP performance in December when it contracted by -0.5%. Nonetheless, despite today's improvement, which was primarily driven by the services sector, concerns about the resilience of the economy remain ahead of next week's budget. Today's data also increases the pressure on Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt to bring in measures to stimulate investment and innovation, champion business, and push back on the siren calls for more taxes which are self-defeating, and don’t raise the sums claimed.

It's a really tough time on cryptocurrency market as Silvergate Bank is in trouble and Binance is said to be struggling as well. Last week Bitcoin declined noticeably, what does Alex Kupstikevich adress that decrease to? Alex Kuptsikevich (FxPro): Bitcoin fell last week due to the problems at Silvergate Bank, which plays a significant role in cryptocurrency payments. Interestingly, the catalyst for the crypto market was not the news itself but a wave of cryptocurrency exchanges refusing to deal with the troubled bank. The fragility of the cryptocurrency market was once again in the spotlight for players, with bitcoin plunging more than 6% at one point in thin trading on Friday. Since then, the first cryptocurrency and the crypto market have performed with subdued volatility. This is both good news and bad news. The good news is that we haven't seen a chain reaction in the market. Investors and traders in the market have started to separate cryptocurrency companies and individual coins very strongly rather than transferring the problems of the former to the latter's price. It is also worth noting that the bitcoin price is consolidating above the local lows of February. This is a sure sign of buying interest in a downturn. Read next: Conflict Between Starbucks And US Baristas Is Developing, Howard Schultz To Testify Before Senate Committee| FXMAG.COM The bad news is that cryptocurrencies missed out on the latest mini-rally in the US stock market, and their limited range in recent days indicates a wait-and-see attitude. The technical analysis on the longer timeframes also needs more hope for the bulls. Bitcoin tested the 200-week average in February but failed to break above it, and now the falling 50-week average is acting as a local resistance line. If the price remains below it ($23.7K), it is premature to bet on a rapid rise in the crypto market.

Last week FXStreet suggested that Elon Musk's narration hinting at "green" crypto advantages could be moving market. Let's confront this news with the comment of Dominik Podlaski, Technical Analyst at Bitget. FXMAG.COM: FXStreet suggests recent Elon Musk narration on sustainability may affect more "green" crypto, would you agree or disagree? Dominik Podlaski (Bitget): Rather disagree. The sustainability narrative has been present for the past few years, gradually gaining momentum across sectors and showing no signs of slowing down. While Elon Musk wields significant influence over his followers, it is unlikely that he can single-handedly impose a dominalnt narrative on a particular market. However, he may possess knowledge of upcoming changes, such as advancements in AI, and position himself as a pioneer in that field. Read next: USD/JPY Is Above 137.00, The Aussie Pair Is Trading Below 0.66, GBP/USD And EUR/USD Are Also Lower | FXMAG.COM Although there is a great chance of having such a narrative in the cryptocurrency market, it's not because of Elon's statements. The reason behind it may be even more fundamental. Prices of energy are still rising, and therefore many previously profitable investments are under pressure. For example, cryptocurrencies are energy-intensive. That is why projects using green energy or more energy-efficient solutions may come into the spotlight.

FXMAG.COM: Last week Bitcoin plunged, what would you address this decline to? Dominik Podlaski (Bitget): The recent plunge in Bitcoin was primarily caused by the condition of Silvergate Bank, despite the presence of various other FUDs (abbreviation for: fear, uncertainty, and doubt) in the cryptocurrency market. The news triggered a strong bearish sentiment, while also limiting liquidity and the ability for traders to hedge against or protect overleveraged positions. As a result, the price drop occurred rapidly and the subsequent price action appeared unnatural. Read next: While Elon Musk wields significant influence over his followers, it is unlikely that he can single-handedly impose a dominant narrative on a particular market | FXMAG.COM The reason behind the recent market disruption was a loss of liquidity, as Silvergate Bank served as a gateway for many cryptocurrency exchanges. When the bank became a target of the SEC and panic ensued, many clients fled and the flow of money collapsed. Traders were unable to fund their accounts on the exchanges to counter unfavorable positions, leading to a significant drop in the market, represented by one large red candle.

Yesterday it was Jerome Powell's turn to testify, but last week that was the future BoJ Governor, Kazuo Ueda, who made a speech. We asked Ramesh Mungara (VT Markets), to share his assessment of the speech by the next Governor of the Bank of Japan and tell us, what was important, surprising in it and what kind of monetary policy in Japan can be expected. Kazuo Ueda, the newly nominated governor of the Bank of Japan, delivered his first speech on March 4th, outlining his priorities for the central bank. Ueda, who is known for his conservative approach to monetary policy, emphasized the importance of maintaining price stability and ensuring financial stability in Japan. Ueda's speech touched on several key issues facing the Japanese economy, including the country's aging population and low birth rate, which have contributed to sluggish growth and deflationary pressures in recent years. He also highlighted the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic and the need for continued monetary and fiscal support to support the recovery. Kazuo Ueda's priorities One of Ueda's main priorities is to achieve the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target, which has eluded the central bank for years. Ueda emphasized that achieving this target would be crucial in breaking the cycle of deflation and boosting consumer and business confidence. He acknowledged that the central bank may need to adjust its policy framework to achieve this goal, including potentially increasing the level of bond purchases or introducing new tools such as yield curve control. Another area of focus for Ueda is financial stability. He emphasized the importance of monitoring and addressing potential risks in the financial system, including the impact of low interest rates on financial institutions and the potential for asset bubbles to form. He also stressed the need for effective communication with market participants and the public to ensure that the central bank's actions are understood and support the stability of the financial system. Read next: Fed Chair testimony summary: Powell emphasized that the final decision has not been made and it would largely depend on the jobs data coming out on Friday | FXMAG.COM Ueda also touched on the role of the Bank of Japan in supporting the government's efforts to address the challenges facing the economy. He emphasized that the central bank would continue to work closely with the government and other stakeholders to ensure that monetary and fiscal policy are coordinated and effective in supporting the recovery. Ueda's experience and expertise will be crucial in guiding the central bank through the challenges facing Japan's economy in the years ahead Overall, Ueda's speech highlighted his commitment to maintaining stability in the Japanese economy and his willingness to adapt the Bank of Japan's policy framework to achieve its goals. While his conservative approach to monetary policy may draw criticism from some quarters, Ueda's experience and expertise will be crucial in guiding the central bank through the challenges facing Japan's economy in the years ahead.

Fed Chair, Jerome Powell testified yesterday, so markets have more information to digest in the following days as everybody is awaiting the next Fed decision later this month. What's more, we're between higher-than-expected ADP print and tomorrow's NFP, so the US dollar may find itself in the eye of the storm shortly. Let's hear from Santa Zvaigzne-Sproge (Conotoxia), who summarizes yesterday's testimony. The final decision has not been made and it would largely depend on the jobs data coming out on Friday Santa Zvaigzne-Sproge (Conotoxia): Mr. Powell’s testimony on Tuesday was cautiously awaited by the majority of investors. His sentiment during the speech signaled that the Fed is ready to continue raising the interest rates if economic data continues to come out stronger than anticipated. The same message was reaffirmed by him also on Wednesday’s Q&A session. Although, he emphasized that the final decision has not been made and it would largely depend on the jobs data coming out on Friday, 10/03 at 13:30 GMT and inflation readings coming out on Tuesday, 14/03 at 12:30 GMT. While such an answer may not provide clarity on the upcoming interest rate decision, it gives a valuable pointer to investors about what macroeconomic data should be watched in the upcoming days for more clarity. The probability of a 50bp rate hike increased to 69% during Mr. Powell’s speech on Tuesday but hiked to 77.1% after Wednesday’s Q&A session, according to CME Group data Investors should be ready that not only the terminal rate previously anticipated at 5.1% may go higher, but also that the slower rate hike in the previous month may have been short-lived and we may expect a return to a 50bp rate hike in the Fed meeting later this month if the above-mentioned data come out higher than expected. The probability of a 50bp rate hike increased to 69% during Mr. Powell’s speech on Tuesday but hiked to 77.1% after Wednesday’s Q&A session, according to CME Group data. At a current benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.5% – 4.75%, half a percent would increase the range to 5% - 5.25%. The Fed official appeared to be more cautious about ending the tightening cycle of monetary policy prematurely rather than keeping it tight for more than necessary Mr. Powell focused on lower inflation in the housing market and softening of the labor market as the key components of driving inflation to its target level. He also admitted that monetary policy affects economic stability and inflation with a certain time lag, meaning that the full effect of the previous interest rate hikes may still have some time to realize. Nevertheless, the Fed official appeared to be more cautious about ending the tightening cycle of monetary policy prematurely rather than keeping it tight for more than necessary. Read next: According to Rick Rieder (BlackRock) the high level of employment will likely keep inflation high and warrant a 6% interest rate for the Fed | FXMAG.COM S&P500 dropped 0.61% in the first five minutes of Mr. Powell’s speech on Tuesday and continued the downtrend until the end of the day giving up 1.45% The better-than-expected economic data leading to Mr. Powell’s speech may have prepared, or at least warned, investors of the potential further interest rate hikes, therefore financial markets took a hit on Tuesday but did not collapse. S&P500 dropped 0.61% in the first five minutes of Mr. Powell’s speech on Tuesday and continued the downtrend until the end of the day giving up 1.45%. Gold lost ground already before Mr. Powell’s speech giving up nearly 2% of its value during the whole trading day. On Wednesday, the market consolidated with S&P500 finishing the day with +0.14% and gold finishing the day with +0.07% although it tried to move higher intraday. Santa Zvaigzne-Sproge, CFA, Head of Investment Advice Department at Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis, and opinions contained, referenced, or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. The personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement, or investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76,41% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

It's been a while since crude oil market moved significantly. Now the Chinese economy is reviving and it increases the chance for a higher and, thus, higher prices, however right now the price line looks quite resilient. FXMAG.COM: Crude oil trades below $80, what could affect the prices in the near future? Andria Pichdi (HF Markets): US EIA Oil Inventories fell for the first time in 2023 on Wednesday, dropping by 1.7 million barrels versus expectations of a build of 395,000 barrels. This came on top of a 5% decline on Tuesday following hawkish “higher, faster and for longer” comments from Fed Chair Powell, with regard to the future trajectory of US interest rates. This boosted short term US Treasury yields with the 2/10yr yield curve now inverted by over 100 bp, a traditionally reliable indicator of economic recession. On the plus side the demand out of China is rising and the reopening of that economy should be a significant driver of demand. A “soft landing” or even “no landing” for the US economy would also boost demand. A number of analysts including JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley are suggesting Oil prices could move north of $90.00 this year and some, including Goldman Sachs, are suggesting $100 barrel oil, which cannot be ruled out. Read next: One of Ueda's main priorities is to achieve the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target, which has eluded the central bank for years| FXMAG.COM

Reserve Bank of Australia decided to raise the interest rate by 25bp, let's hear from Serhii Zhdanov (EXMO), who shares his view with FXMAG.COM readers. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised interest rates for the 10th consecutive time, raising the target interest rate to 3.6%. Serhii Zhdanov (EXMO): The Australian economy, like most countries, is now suffering from high inflation. Raising interest rates is a standard method of dealing with the problem. While the rate was raised in line with expectations, RBA’s Governor, Philip Lowe's speech provoked negative sentiment. Market participants gathered a sentiment of uncertainty in his rhetoric and now fear that inflation will remain elevated for a prolonged time. This is facilitated by a strong service sector, low unemployment, and high wages. To reduce inflation, the market needs a shake-up, a cold shower. However, the above factors do not allow this to be achieved at present. Read next: A number of analysts including JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley are suggesting Oil prices could move north of $90.00 this year | FXMAG.COM Expectations have also grown significantly that the rate will not only be raised for another couple of months in a row, but that it will remain at a high level for longer than expected. The Reserve Bank of Australia, for the second consecutive meeting, says that the chances of a "soft landing" of the economy are small.

FXStreet suggests that Elon Musk’s recent narration on sustainability may affect a more "green" crypto. We asked Serhii Zhdanov, EXMO CEO, whether he would agree or disagree with such suggestions. Serhii Zhdanov (EXMO): Recently, Elon admitted that his interest has switched from cryptocurrencies to Artificial Intelligence (AI). The crypto community has already taken such statements with a pinch of salt. On Investor Day, Musk said nothing about cryptocurrencies. He outlined the overall goals of the company and how to achieve them. Claims about a “green” cryptocurrency are a bit far-fetched at the moment. We need to wait for specifics on this from the businessman himself. In the short term, the “green” cryptocurrency is able to create a local pump on such rumours. Elon Musk has huge support among crypto enthusiasts Elon Musk has huge support among crypto enthusiasts. His tweets and other statements can create increased volatility in the market. Therefore, his words about cryptocurrencies should be taken seriously, especially by short-term traders. If Musk continues to provide strong support for cryptocurrencies that are less damaging to the environment, this may influence investors who are interested in green cryptocurrencies. Read next: RBA decision: Market participants gathered a sentiment of uncertainty in Philip Lowe's rhetoric and now fear that inflation will remain elevated for a prolonged time | FXMAG.COM The environment is one of the main problems of the 21st century, and the situation has deteriorated greatly after the industrial revolution. Therefore, any initiative to improve the quality of our environment should be perceived positively by all people on the planet.

Last week one of the most shocking news was the shocking decline of Turkey's inflation. The print amounted to 55.18%, so we've wondered what could the reason. We asked David Kindley from Orbex what would he attribute the surprising decrease in Turkey’s inflation to? In short, I believe Turkey has a long way to go in terms of curbing inflation David Kindley (Orbex): Turkey’s inflation decelerated to its slowest level in the last year according to the latest CPI report, but I don’t think the steep decline is the result of strict monetary policy. On the contrary, President Erdogan continues to refuse to increase key rates by a meaningful margin, as it’s against his religious beliefs. The steep decline can therefore more likely be attributed to a statistical discrepancy, as the 2021 Turkish lira devaluation crisis inflated prices very quickly causing a very high base for comparison for this year. In short, I believe Turkey has a long way to go in terms of curbing inflation. Read next: A number of analysts including JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley are suggesting Oil prices could move north of $90.00 this year | FXMAG.COM

David Kindley, Market Strategist at Orbex, some time ago, before today's earnings of KO, was asked about its earnings expectations. It seems, that he was right - check out what did he say to FXMAG.COM then! FXMAG.COM: Q4 2022 and full year 2022 results are reported by Warren Buffett's favorite company Coca-Cola on Tuesday, February 14th - will it meet market expectations? David Kindley (Orbex): We saw Coca-Cola's (KO) main rival Pepsi reporting solid earnings for Q4, so of course investors will now be looking very closely at Coca-Cola's earnings this Tuesday. Coca-Cola's Q4 projected are at $0.45 per share, which would be on par with Q4 2021. We do expect solid quarterly sales though, at a projected $10.01 billion, which would mark a 6% increase from the 2021’s Q4. On a yearly basis, sales are expected to increase by a whopping 11% in total for 2022! Overall, we expect some very solid earnings for consumer-staple KO, so I would not expect Buffet’s love for Coca-Cola to wane anytime soon. Read next: The early 2023 crypto rally was indeed cut short last Thursday| FXMAG.COM

In the end of last week we noticed a noticeable decrease of Bitcoin price. To have a detailed look, we reached out to Orbex, to discover their view on this one. On Thursday, Bitcoin decreased noticeably, what would you ascribe that decrease to? The early 2023 crypto rally was indeed cut short last Thursday on news that the US Securities and Exchange Commission charged crypto exchange company Kraken over failing to register their staking-as-a-service program. Kraken agreed to pay a $30 million fine to the SEC, but then we had rumors circulating that the SEC would ban staking for retail investors altogether. This, in turn, sent shockwaves through the crypto markets and caused the latest crypto sell-off. It’s important to clarify however, that at this stage, staking ban fears are based on mere speculations and that there was no official statement by the SEC.   Read next: Bartosz Milczarek, CEO at Cryptiony: Customers settle the crypto tax in annual returns, so our business model is also based on annual subscriptions | FXMAG.COM

WTI crude oil has been trading near $80 for some time now and FXMAG team wonders, what could be the next factor driving the prices. Let's hear from Andrey Goilov, member of RoboForex Analytics Department. The crude oil market is very dependent on demand forecasts in Asia, particularly China. Initially, it was thought that as soon as lockdowns and quarantine measures came to an end, and Chinese borders opened, the country's demand for fuel would increase. It will then smoothly return to the pre-pandemic levels. However, things are not happening as fast as they could. China is returning to daily life without restrictions, but the demand for oil is not increasing.This is due to systemic problems in the real estate market, which is holding back the whole Chinese economy. Moreover, inflation in the country remains too high. Exports are facing difficulties. All this makes economic processes slow with a cautious approach. Read next: Turkey: For now, inflation could be said to have dropped because of the high base in 2022| FXMAG.COMDemand for crude oil in China will give the commodities sector a strong boost. India is now highly active with the consumption and import of crude oil and oil products. There could be a new point for growth for this market in the country in the long run. The US needs to replenish strategic reserves, which are already depleted. If the US starts buying oil, the market will feel the demand, and the prices will rise as a result. OPEC and OPEC+ mechanisms in terms of price regulation are exhausted. US dollar weakness, which is based on the end of the Federal Reserve's tight monetary policy phase, would support crude oil prices. Visit RoboForex

We got really shocked by the Turkey inflation print released last week. It's to less to say it's surprising. That's why we reached out to expert, Andrey Goilov (RoboForex) to ask what does he adress this unexpected decline to. Andrey Goilov (RoboForex): The CPI in Turkey should be treated cautiously. The official statistics for January did demonstrate a decline in inflation to 57.6% y/y from 62.4% previously. Monthly inflation was estimated at 6.65%. Considering the extremely high rate of price increases in Turkey, such data is good news. However, according to independent ENAG research, January inflation in Turkey was at least 121%. In February 2023, the Turkish CB decreased the interest rate to 8.5% to create favourable conditions for the economy. This factor can support inflation by stimulating consumer demand. President Erdogan is confident that lowering the interest rate slows inflation, although the developed world believes otherwise. For now, inflation could be said to have dropped because of the high base in 2022. For the time being, signals about a decrease in the Turkish inflation rate should be treated with caution. The trend will become stable as soon as inflation starts to fall by 5% per month on a more permanent basis. So far, we have only two months of mixed observations. Read next: In crude oil, we are increasingly likely to see a year of two distinctive halves| FXMAG.COM Visit RoboForex

Commodities arouse our attention more than usual as crude oil trades below $80, and we wonder what could affect the prices in the near future. Let's hear from David Kindley from Orbex. David Kindley (Orbex): WTI prices are currently in a downward spiral amid decreasing demand from major economies and overall global economic growth pessimism. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Tuesday came in hawkish, pushing the dollar-denominated crude even lower. In the short term, I would expect crude prices to continue to decline towards the $70 level In the short term, I would expect crude prices to continue to decline towards the $70 level. However, in the long term, crude and brent prices are set to rise throughout 2023 as Russia’s output falters and as demand from China is expected to eventually rise. I would encourage traders to look out for the Fed Interest Rate Decision later this month (March 22), as another higher-than-expected rate hike can push crude even lower. Read next: Surprisingly low Turkey's inflation: The 2021 Turkish lira devaluation crisis inflated prices very quickly causing a very high base for comparison for this year| FXMAG.COM

We've reached out to AngelBlock recently to ask Alex Strzesniewski about the Binance situation? It's been a while since the first concerns appeared, is one of the most popular crypto exchanges in trouble? Alex Strzesniewski (AngelBlock): Binance FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) is unfortunately nothing new and has been around since early 2018 in one shape or another. Is some of it substantiated? Perhaps. Binance could definitely be more transparent when it comes to various aspects of their business. One cannot, however, take away from a lot of the great work that they’ve done for crypto as a whole. A key part of my framework when looking at such matters is, where are these allegations coming from? When it comes to Binance, many of the accusations and allegations emanate from the US and their regulatory bodies. The same regulators and politicians that were playing nice with now defunct exchange FTX - and how many of them warned us about FTX? Zero. Alex Strzesniewski (AngelBlock): The same regulators and politicians that were playing nice with now defunct exchange FTX - and how many of them warned us about FTX? Zero. Binance has proven to be a more trusted player in this space than 99% of other crypto companies. Despite regulatory hurdles and even some hacks, they’ve (so far) always done right by their users and I see no reason why their user-centric approach would change anytime soon. Much of the current situation stems from Binance’s stablecoin BUSD and the issuer they’ve been working with Paxos - but again, the issue here is one of US regulatory nature, where the SEC is claiming that something like a stablecoin should be under their jurisdiction. This means the SEC potentially views BUSD as a security, which just shows their total lack of awareness and understanding of this space - or worse yet, their nefarious intentions. Read next: Green cryptocurrency moved by Elon Musk's narration? AngelBlock: The only new aspect of this is the fact that it was mentioned by Elon Musk | FXMAG.COM This means the SEC potentially views BUSD as a security, which just shows their total lack of awareness and understanding of this space - or worse yet, their nefarious intentions.  

We can't stand to Alex Strzesniewski from AngelBlock to confront news suggesting recent Elon Musk narration on sustainability may affect more "green" crypto with his opinion. Here's what we got. Alex Strzesniewski (AngelBlock): The only new aspect of this is the fact that it was mentioned by Elon Musk. Within the crypto community we’ve been talking about sustainability for quite some time and it feels like a natural evolution of our industry. Even back in 2017 a few “greener” coins have risen to prominence, each one had a different promise “no GPU mining” or a Delegated Proof of Stake consensus algorithm, etc. I don’t believe Elon Musk’s comments will have a long term effect on the market (hint, hint: look at the price of DOGE), despite the fact that the market is already moving (slowly, but surely) in that direction. Bitcoin mining has taken great strides to use renewable energy sources, and many projects launching now do keep sustainability in mind Alex Strzesniewski (AngelBlock): Bitcoin mining has taken great strides to use renewable energy sources, and many projects launching now do keep sustainability in mind. A great example here is Aleph Zero, a privacy-enhancing layer-1 blockchain that has had sustainability as one of its main tenets since launch. Read next: Binance has proven to be a more trusted player in this space than 99% of other crypto companies | FXMAG.COM

Stocks linked with AI and stocks of companies which are commonly known to have invested in such technologies are arousing investors' interest, while at FXMAG we wonder if the AI isn't another bubble. Let's hear from Ramesh Mungara (VT Markets). Ramesh Mungara (VT Markets): It is important to note that predicting market trends and bubbles is a complex task that involves many factors, including economic conditions, investor sentiment, and technological advancements. The global artificial intelligence market size was valued at USD 136.55 billion in 2022 and is projected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 37.3% from 2023 to 2030. The continuous research and innovation directed by tech giants are driving the adoption of advanced technologies in industry verticals, such as automotive, healthcare, retail, finance, and manufacturing. It is also important to note that the AI market is not a single entity, but rather a collection of different technologies and applications that are being developed and deployed in various industries. Some of these technologies may see more rapid growth than others, and some may experience a period of hype before their potential impact is fully realized. Tech giants like Amazon.com, Inc.; Google LLC; Apple Inc.; Facebook; International Business Machines Corporation; and Microsoft are investing significantly in the research and development of AI AI is proven to be a significant revolutionary element of the upcoming digital era. Tech giants like Amazon.com, Inc.; Google LLC; Apple Inc.; Facebook; International Business Machines Corporation; and Microsoft are investing significantly in the research and development of AI. Whilst North America accounts for 43% of market share for 2022, it is the Asia Pacific region that is forecasted and expected to grow the most (42%) from years 2023 to 2030. For the rest of this year however, the steady growth path the AI market has taken, it is forecasted to grow by another $42.4 billion. AI is proven to be a significant revolutionary element of the upcoming digital era Read next: One of Ueda's main priorities is to achieve the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target, which has eluded the central bank for years| FXMAG.COM The significant investment made into AI will certainly yield favourable results. The AI market remains relatively new to global investors and like most new markets, there will be optimism and opportunities for both long term investors and short-term speculators. It's longevity and true success however will only be realized over time. While there is always the possibility of a bubble in any market, it is also possible that the growth in the AI market is driven by real demand and the potential benefits that these technologies can offer. It is up to investors to carefully evaluate the opportunities and risks in the market and make informed decisions based on their own analysis and research.

Non-farm payrolls came at 311K last Friday noticeably beating expectations. We reached out to Andria Pichdi to have a more detailed look at the possible implications for the incoming Fed decision. FXMAG.COM: Could you please comment on the NFP print after it's released, what could presented value mean to Fed? Andria Pichdi (HF Markets): Fed policy uncertainties rose after the collapse of SVB in the US! Local stock markets rallied as traders reined in Fed tightening expectations. The employment report failed to fully support expectations for a 50 bp Fed hike, coupled with a huge flight to quality and short covering trade on SVB news. The softening in some of the metrics in the February jobs report is easing fears of a more hawkish Fed, especially in light of the failure of SVB, with many in the market seeing that as a harbinger of troubles in the financial system. And they further suggest "the Fed broke it and will have to fix it with an easing in rates." The March implied rate has slipped to 4.908% versus 5.003%, again reflecting a better chance for a 25 bp increase rather than a half point pop. Read next: To Protect Customer Deposit, SVB UK Will Be Sold To HSBC, The Food Crisis Is Getting Worse| FXMAG.COM

We reached out to Ali Daylami, Head of Data Analytics at BITMarkets, to find out what's his approach to news that recent Elon Musk narration on sustainability may affect more "green" crypto. Ali Daylami (BITMarkets): It's a great question. Environmentally-friendly cryptocurrencies like Cardano and Polkadot are great for the ecosystem; not that of just the crypto space, but our world as we know it. As more are becoming aware and concerned about our environment, green crypto projects have picked up steam Elon Musk has been a long advocate for sustainability and renewability. I don't believe that the initiatives of his teams at Tesla to build a sustainability master plan will go unnoticed. As more are becoming aware and concerned about our environment, green crypto projects have picked up steam. Read next: UK economy: according to Ebury analyst, recession is becoming increasingly less likely| FXMAG.COM The year-to-date trend for green cryptos remains very bullish. ADA has propelled 32%, and DOT witnessed a 37% surge, just to name a few. I believe that if the public deems Musk’s whitepaper as feasible, the bullish trend will not only drive green cryptocurrencies upwards, but the crypto market as a whole.

Today we go back to the Non-farm payrolls as on Monday we heard from Ali Daylami from BITMarkets. Ali Daylami (BITMarkets): As the non-farm payrolls in the US increased beyond market expectations by 38% which is quite significant, hand-in-hand with unemployment rates coming in softer than expected, this means one thing in my opinion; more rate hikes from the Fed to cool-down the red-hot economy, given robust omnipresent economic growth. Now, this is great for the American economy Read next: The year-to-date trend for green cryptos remains very bullish. ADA has propelled 32%, and DOT witnessed a 37% surge, just to name a few| FXMAG.COM Ali Daylami (BITMarkets): Now, this is great for the American economy. The payrolls bump was mostly witnessed in leisure, hospitality, retail trading, government and health care, which may suggest that corporate-intensive businesses and projects are on the rise, and that’s great for any economy. Nevertheless, I re-iterate that this will likely prompt the Fed and other central banks around the globe to push interest rates higher. Only time will tell.  

Viktar Dzenisevich, Investment director, Partner Zubr Capital answers FXMAG.COM question on Silicon Valley Bank, which has already caused some drops amid financial sector. FXMAG.COM: Would SVB problems (and/or their consequences) affect crypto industry as well? Viktar Dzenisevich: I think that problems in the classical banking system will increase the number of people trying find a solution in cryptocurrencies. That is why cryptocurrencies will gain in value by 5-15% in the near future. We do not consider companies that have held cash in those banks that have declared bankruptcy (like USDT). However, when the panic calms down, everything will return to its original state. ...cryptocurrencies will gain in value by 5-15% in the near future Read next: UBS Take over of Credit Suisse means over 50% of deposits will be held by a single institution| FXMAG.COM

Recently our team has noticed that price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency remain elevated despite the visible banking sector concerns. Tempted by this exceptional situation we reached out to Alex Kuptsikevich, analyst at FxPro, to find out what could we attribute such price action to. Alex Kuptsikevich (FxPro): Bitcoin, like gold, is experiencing a rise in price due to increased demand amid problems in the US and European banking industries. Investors with large deposits are losing confidence that they will not lose access to their capital if banks fail. Although the US financial authorities have protected depositors' capital at SVB, many investors are asking the reasonable question of whether the Treasury and the Fed can continue to guarantee the protection of money if this domino effect continues. Simply put, it is no longer a question of yield but safety. Money markets are rising on the belief that the Fed will start cutting rates soon (possibly as early as June) Alex Kuptsikevich (FxPro): In addition to the panic buying in bitcoin, there is a longer-term trend to consider. In less than two weeks, Fed rate expectations have changed dramatically. Money markets are rising on the belief that the Fed will start cutting rates soon (possibly as early as June). This is an unlikely scenario, but it contrasts sharply with the 75-point rate hike expected three weeks ago. The rule works: the softer the expected financial conditions, the higher the demand for risky assets, and bitcoin is the brightest representative of this class. Read next: According to CryptoQuant founder, Bitcoin has entered the bull market phase | FXMAG.COM Alex Kuptsikevich (FxPro): Moreover, bitcoin's rally started at a good technical point. The leading cryptocurrency started buying back on the decline towards its 200-day moving average, confirming the return of the long-term bullish trend. In the short term, the rally looks overheated, but beyond the local correction, we see a very bullish outlook for the cryptocurrency market.

Last week the US Retail Sales and PPI prints were released. We asked Nour Hammoury from SquaredFinancial from what could they mean for Fed before the rate decision? Nour Hammoury (SquaredFinancial): PPI data is another confirmation that inflation remains on the right track. Despite all the fears last month that inflation might have started a new wave to the upside, PPI confirmed the opposite as it declined to the lowest level since 2021. At the same time, Retail Sales without a doubt increased the estimates that GDP is likely to be weaker, leading major institutions to cut the US GDP estimates. Retail Sales without a doubt increased the estimates that GDP is likely to be weaker Nour Hammoury (SquaredFinancial): This is also another confirmation that growth for Q1 is nowhere near 2%, which is another factor why the Fed might need to pause in the coming meetings. Read next: In conclusion, the ECB was balanced enough to please the markets | FXMAG.COM

We're after the ECB interest rate decision, which turned out to be a 50bp rate hike. Let's hear from Nour Hammoury, Chief Market Analyst at SquaredFinancial, who comments on the ECB move.  Nour Hammoury (SquaredFinancial): Despite Credit Suisse's situation and the banking incidents in the US, the ECB had no other options but to stick to its policy and hike by 50bps as inflation is still at a record high. However, it was a dovish hike as the bank did not mention anything regarding the next meeting. In the previous decision, the bank mentioned that in the next two meetings, large rate hikes could be appropriate, but after what happened over the past few days, the ECB will be more careful going forward. Moreover, the decision was not unanimous as there were 3 to 4 members who voted against the decision. after what happened over the past few days, the ECB will be more careful going forward. Read next: USA: PPI data is another confirmation that inflation remains on the right track| FXMAG.COM Nour Hammoury (SquaredFinancial): In conclusion, the ECB was balanced enough to please the markets. The question now is if this is the end of the banking issues, or if we will hear about more banks in the coming days.

We saw a huge decline in commodities prices - was it about higher temparatures in the USA? Let's hear from Andrey Goilov from RoboForex. Andrey Goilov: An unusually warm winter in 2023 in the US could be the main reason for a number of declines in commodity prices, such as the prices for crude oil, oil products, gas, and other assets.Andrey Goilov: With energy demand normally increasing in winter, demand for energy carriers becomes higher as more fuel is withdrawn from reserves for heating purposes. The December 2022 to February 2023 period was expected to be cold, and asset prices were based on this forecast. However, weather conditions turned out milder, as a result of which expectations were not met. Read next: Microsoft, Amazon and Google increased by nearly 15% last week| FXMAG.COM Andrey Goilov: In the US, this was well displayed in the Department of Energy's weekly reports on commercial oil reserves. Towards the end of winter, the figures increased noticeably. This, among other things, put pressure on the price of crude oil. Naturally, weather conditions are just one of the factors negatively affecting oil prices Andrey Goilov: Naturally, weather conditions are just one of the factors negatively affecting oil prices. There are many other reasons to sell black gold. However, in this case, it was the average daily temperature that became a persistent fundamental trigger for the decline in crude oil prices. Visit RoboForex

Swiss National Bank has recently decided on the interest rate choosing a 50bp variant. Andria Pichdi from HF Markets comments on the decision. FXMAG.COM: Could you please comment on the SNB decision after it's made? What's ahead of USD/CHF? Andria Pichdi (HF Markets): Having in mind the recent Credit Suisse events, the SNB went ahead with the 50 bp rate hike that had been expected, in order to counter "the renewed increase in inflationary pressure" as they stated. So the 50 bp was well justified considering the events of the past 2 weeks and the potential aftermaths of the Credit Suisse takeover and the AT1 bonds rescue on inflation and the economy in general. USDCHF drifted further after the SNB decision, down to 0.9116. Read next: UK economy: inflation exceeded expectations, Nasdaq 100 finished higher yesterday| FXMAG.COM Key support level for USDCHF remains the 1-year support area, i.e. 0.9050-0.9100 Andria Pichdi (HF Markets): Considering that it’s too early to claim that the banking crisis is over, that inflation is now expected at 2.6% (was 2.4%), and still at 2.0% (was 1.8%) in 2023, that economic activity is expected to remain subdued, and that vulnerabilities on the mortgage and real estate markets will persist, further tightening is expected, something that could increase further the bearish bias in the USDCHF. Key support level for USDCHF remains the 1-year support area, i.e. 0.9050-0.9100. A dive below that area could endorse the bearish structure to 2021 and 2020 lows at 0.8900 and the 0.8760 barrier. A resilience of USDCHF however above 0.9050-0.9100 cannot be interpreted as a bullish signal, as the asset remains well below the 50- and 200-week SMA.

The Federal Reserve Committee had a particularly challenging decision to make in the latest meeting. The Committee may have wanted to appear undisturbed by the latest events in the financial sector in the US and called it “sound and resilient”. Such a description may have been needed for the Fed to continue its monetary policy trend of raising interest rates in order to drive inflation lower in the long run. The Committee expressed its unchanged focus on a 2 percent interest rate combined with maximum employment. As a result, the Fed voted on increasing the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, which coincided with the majority of the expectations in the market at this point. Despite the confidence in the financial system expressed by the Fed officials, a change in sentiment was noticeable when referring to future rate hikes. Despite the confidence in the financial system expressed by the Fed officials, a change in sentiment was noticeable when referring to future rate hikes. The Committee slightly decreased its GDP outlook for the year as well as maintained its interest rate target unchanged at 5.1% which may have been perceived by the markets as the Fed becoming less hawkish in consequence of the recent shutdowns of several US banks. The markets reacted indistinctively with treasury yields dropping lower following the release of the statement, while US stocks reacted positively at the beginning, but lost ground closer to the end of the session with S&P500 losing 1.6% during the session. Meanwhile the US Dollar weakened against other major currencies as more dovish monetary policy and lower interest rates may be considered as bearish for the currency. Read next: USDCHF drifted further after the SNB decision, down to 0.9116| FXMAG.COM The reason for the unclear market reaction may have been the disparity of opinions about what may be the best or most correct action considering latest events. The 25 bp interest rate hike, although smaller than previously anticipated, may further deepen the unrealized losses on the banks’ balance sheets – an important aspect in the collapse of the SVB – and further diminish the available funds to households. At the same time, a list of tools introduced by the Fed, including an injection of 300 billion USD on its balance sheet in order to handle a potential banking turmoil may signal that it is ready to take further steps not to allow a recession to start in the near future. Santa Zvaigzne-Sproge, CFA, Head of Investment Advice Department at Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis, and opinions contained, referenced, or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. The personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement, or investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76,41% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Last year, there was a lot of discussion about Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan, whose policies have been widening all year long. This gap has been discussed for some time, so was the change of the BoJ governor. Governor Kuroda will step down soon and Kazuo Ueda will take office. There were some rumours that this change could mean a monetary policy shift. FXMAG.COM: Basing on general circumstances and the GDP print, could Bank of Japan change its monetary policy path earlier than expected? Overall, there is some consensus that the appointment of Kazuo Ueda as head of his central bank may increase the chances that the Bank of Japan will abandon its ultra-easy monetary policy and policy of controlling the yield curve and negative interest rates, which is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain at a time when inflationary pressures are rising, and other central banks are aggressively raising rates. Moreover, Japan's economy looks relatively healthy, giving the Bank of Japan an opportunity to roll back its policy of yield curve control that has been in place since 2016. However, if inflation rises faster than expected, or if the global economic outlook improves significantly, the BoJ might consider adjusting its policy course earlier than originally planned. Nevertheless, the evolution of policy depends on domestic demand and, in turn, on wage growth in line with the inflation rate, and changes are likely to take place after the appointment of a new central bank head in April. Read next: Microsoft: Bing With Artificial Intelligence And The First Mistakes And Confusing Answers| FXMAG.COM

Recently, markets were provided with a lot of crucial releases from the UK market. Last Friday, before the retail sales print, we reached out to Freedom Broker to ask their analyst, if this event can support FTSE. FXMAG.COM: Are you of the opinion UK retail sales is going to provide support to FTSE? Overall, positive retail sales data have the potential to boost consumer confidence and spending, given the slight slowdown in inflationary pressures in January, amid a CPI data release of 10.1%, down from December's 10.5%. Meanwhile, there was also a slowdown in Core CPIH, which fell to 5.3% in January 2023 from 5.8% in December 2022. Retail sales have been falling all last year, amid rising inflation, but they rose in October 2022 and provided significant support for the index, after which a local rising trend began with the index rising nearly 16%. Read next: Ole Hansen: Gold given its sensitivity to both (dollar and yields) continues lower as the loss of momentum forces long-liquidation from funds| FXMAG.COM

Our team asked Serhii Zhdanov from EXMO for a comment on Japan's inflation. Here's what we got. Serhii Zhdanov (EXMO): Inflation in Japan in February 2023 amounted to 3.3% in annual terms. Inflation slowed sharply from 4.3% (a record since December 1981) a month earlier. The decline in inflation is largely due to a reduction in the cost of utilities – by 0.3%. Also, electricity in February fell by 5.5%. Besides this, do not forget about the fall in energy prices in world markets. Inflation excluding food and energy in annual terms increased to 3.5% from 3.2% Serhii Zhdanov (EXMO): However, inflation excluding food and energy in annual terms increased to 3.5% from 3.2%, a month earlier. The Central Bank of Japan also expects a reduction in inflationary pressure. If the rate of CPI decline continues, this will positively affect the Japanese economy. Read next: United Kingdom economy: Summary of Bank of England inflation letter | FXMAG.COM

We asked Matt Weller (FOREX.com) for a comment on the UK GDP print released last Thursday. Let's have a look what the analyst said. Matt Weller (FOREX.com): The UK economy narrowly avoided a recession as it registered 0.1% growth in Q4 2022, up from the initial estimate of zero growth. The Q3 GDP contraction was revised to -0.1%, smaller than initially reported, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Despite a cost of living crisis, high inflation, and concerns over weak growth prospects, the UK has thus far managed to stay out of recession Matt Weller (FOREX.com): However, the UK's economic output remains 0.6% below its late 2019 level, making it the only G7 nation yet to recover from the pandemic. Despite a cost of living crisis, high inflation, and concerns over weak growth prospects, the UK has thus far managed to stay out of recession. The IMF had predicted in January that the UK would be the only G7 country to contract in 2023, largely due to an inflation rate exceeding 10%. The dominant services sector grew by 0.1%, with travel agents experiencing an 11% increase, indicative of rising demand for holidays. Manufacturing expanded by 0.5%, and construction grew by 1.3%. Read next: Unexpected drop in Swiss inflation may complicate SNB decision| FXMAG.COM The market implications of this report are limited, given it is a revision to a revision of a report summarizing economic growth from 90-180 days ago, but at the margin, it points to slightly stronger-than-feared growth in the UK.

The US GDP hit 2.6%, slightly less than expected. Let's hear from David Kindley from Orbex, who comments on that print on FXMAG.COM request. Growth expectations are beginning to decline David Kindley (Orbex): US GDP came in slightly weaker than expected for the fourth quarter (Q4) at 2.6% versus the consensus of 2.7%. It should be noted however that the original estimate by the Commerce Department for Q4 was 2.9%; this indicates that growth expectations are beginning to decline. Meanwhile, looking at Q3, we saw a 2,6% expansion which marked a considerable deceleration from the 3.2% annualized growth recorded during the third quarter. In layman’s terms, the economy is entering a contraction phase, which is to be expected given the rising interest rates and the ultra-tight lending environment. All indications show that the Fed is planning a “controlled recession” for 2023 – 2024, but given the current volatile banking environment, any reversal in their monetary policy could push the stock markets higher.   Read next: The UK's economic output remains 0.6% below its late 2019 level, making it the only G7 nation yet to recover from the pandemic| FXMAG.COM

FXMAG.COM asked David Kindley to comment on the March Eurozone CPI. The print showed a noticeable decline of 1.6% coming in at 6.9%. David Kindley (Orbex): Europe’s latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures pointed to a considerable slowdown in inflation to its lowest level for more than a year, after a decline in energy costs. Specifically, consumer prices rose 6.9% in the year to March, down from 8.5% the previous month. The drop was sharper than consensus, resulting in an EU stock market rally on Friday, March 31st. It should be noted however, that core inflation, which excludes energy and food costs, hit a new Eurozone high of 5.7% in March, up from 5.6% the previous month. Food price inflation also rose, from 15% to 15.4%, while services inflation was up from 4.8% to 5%. This leads me to believe that the lower-than-expected CPI figure is heavily attributed to the decline in energy costs. As demand for heating slows over the summer months, reining in on inflation will come down to the ECB’s next monetary steps and whether the Russia-Ukraine conflict is finally resolved by next winter. Food price inflation also rose, from 15% to 15.4%, while services inflation was up from 4.8% to 5% Read next: The UK's economic output remains 0.6% below its late 2019 level, making it the only G7 nation yet to recover from the pandemic| FXMAG.COM

We're some time away from the next European Central Bank decision, but still inflation print temains crucial. Last week Eurozone CPI hit 6.9%, slowing down again. We asked Andrey Goilov from RoboForex for a comment. Here's what we got. Andrey Goilov (RoboForex): Consumer prices in the Eurozone in March slowed down for the fifth month in a row. The region's annual inflation rate reached 6.9% in March, falling from the February level of 8.5%. Inflation in the Eurozone is almost three times higher than the European Central Bank's target level. At 2%, it has remained unchanged for a long time. Prices in Austria, Slovenia, and Croatia are rising faster than in other countries, while price increases are reported to be the slowest in Spain and Luxembourg. Inflation is driven by skyrocketing food prices. This is not just a problem in the Eurozone and EU, but the whole world. Supply chains were disrupted during the pandemic, and have not recovered yet. The world is struggling to establish new logistics, and this process needs time. Meanwhile, prices remain high. On China's side, there is a decline in the supply of components, fertilisers, and animal feeds. This also has a negative impact on prices. Read next: Orbex analyst on the EU inflation: This leads me to believe that the lower-than-expected CPI figure is heavily attributed to the decline in energy costs| FXMAG.COM For European countries in particular, the limited supply of energy carriers, mainly gas, is also a notable factor that fuels widespread price increases. And this not only affects food prices but also the cost of services.Moreover, it should be remembered that the ECB in its attempt to beat the pandemic and its consequences and stimulate the economy, has printed huge amounts of money. And these finances were not fully supported by the supply of goods. As a result, the ECB itself created an inflation shock, which it is still unable to deal with. Visit RoboForex

As crude oil is trading well above the recent highs it's good to hear from expert, what could cause such rise of prices. Let's hear from Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank. FXMAG.COM: Crude oil prices have accelarated recently, what could we attribute such increases to? Ole Hansen (Saxo Bank): Crude oil traded firm ahead of month-end with the recent recovery being driven by continued supply disruptions from Northern Iraq amid a dispute between Baghdad and the Kurdistan region, a weaker dollar, the biggest drop in US crude stocks since November, China's recovery showing continued strength and an improve risk sentiment forcing short covering. In a monthly survey published by the Dallas Fed, shale oil basin executives said the "uncertainty of the depth and duration of bank crisis is causing us to be nervous about capital spending plans in 2023". In addition to access to credit, record costs from a shortage of labour and supply chain issues have led to a slowdown in production growth.  We maintain a moderate bullish outlook for crude oil as we are concerned that most of the still expected +2 million barrel a day increase in global demand this year is forecast to occur during the second half Ole Hansen (Saxo Bank): We maintain a moderate bullish outlook for crude oil as we are concerned that most of the still expected +2 million barrel a day increase in global demand this year is forecast to occur during the second half. With that in mind, a deeper than expected slowdown, as signalled by current U.S. rate cut expectations may reduce the eventual growth, thereby reducing the upside for crude oil later this year. However, in the short term, a break above $80.40 in Brent is likely to signal a return to the range that prevailed prior to the mid-March correction. Read next: The U.S. dollar has weakened across the board in recent weeks in response to a dovish repricing of the Fed's monetary policy outlook| FXMAG.COM

Last week we heard from Chris Beauchamp from IG, who shared his view on the S&P 500 performance, which has been much worse than Nasdaq and tech stocks. This time we're pleased to share comment of Joseph Jeffries, market analyst at Eightcap.  Source: TradingView FXMAG.COM: Companies shown in the chart (TSLA, NVDA, AMZN, GOOG) have increased significantly more than SPX itself YTD. Taking it into consideration, why the gain of SPX amounts to subtle 5%? Naturally, SPX is about 500 companies from various branches, but isn't it certainly about the banking sector weakening the index? What companies have under performed recently weighing on the index performance? Joseph Jeffries (Eightcap): There was definitely a flood back to tech stocks after the long decline that was based on a few things like missed earnings and other issues in the industry. Meta started the revival months ago after it gave positive guidance, this set off a strong return to tech stocks. Combined with better-than-expected news banking issues started to emerge and this could have been a factor in why sellers started shifting liquidity from some sectors to other sectors.  During the runs when we saw the DOW and SPX start lagging the Nasdaq it was that shift in liquidity that was causing the difference Joseph Jeffries (Eightcap): During the runs when we saw the DOW and SPX start lagging the Nasdaq it was that shift in liquidity that was causing the difference. Traders could have been using tech stocks as a hedge or risk offset to shield risk from the banking issues. This could be a reason we saw the Nasdaq continue to run while the DOW and SPX struggled during that period.  Joseph Jeffries (Eightcap): As stated the reaction was seen as overdone and we can see now that the DOW and SPX have started to catch up with the gains seen on the Nasdaq.

Could you please comment on the National Bank of Poland interest rate decision after it's released? Andria Pichidi, HFM Market Analyst: Poland kept borrowing costs on hold at 6.75% for the 7th straight month in line with the forecast and predicted inflation will gradually ease from the highest level in a quarter. It didn’t rule out further rate increases, saying its future decisions will depend on economic prospects. Considering the dovish monetary policy statement last month and the decline in the flash annual CPI inflation in March, the NBP didn’t have any room for monetary easing, while the small decline in inflation didn’t allow them to increase rates either. NBP didn’t have any room for monetary easing, while the small decline in inflation didn’t allow them to increase rates either Polish interest rates could be cut in 2024 rather than the end of 2023 like the NBP stated. The central bank governor said today he believes weakening gross domestic product growth, together with already implemented rate hikes, would help gradually curb inflation. However with the sticky core inflation still at 12.3% y/y vs. 12.0% in February on Wednesday, this scenario looks unlikely. Read next: The RBNZ has a more intense inflation and labour market problem to counter than its Australian counterpart| FXMAG.COM

GBP/USD is at its highest level in a year. Will the pound continue to strengthen and why? Let's hear from David Kindley, Market Strategist at Orbex. David Kindley (Orbex): The GBP/USD has been on a steady rise in 2023 due to the improvement in the UK’s economic outlook and on bets that the Bank of England (BoE) will be looking to raise interest rates more aggressively. The raising and lowering of interest rates is one of the biggest driving factors in the strength or weakness of a currency, and with BoE’s key rate currently at 4.25% there’s certainly some more firepower for the Bank of England in terms of raising its key rate in 2023. There are expectations for both central banks in the US and the EU to also raise their key rates in May, which means that we can expect a lot of volatility in the forex market David Kindley (Orbex): It’s important to note that UK interest rates may be raised during the next BoE meeting in early May, which could be a key period for both the pound, but also the Euro and the USD. There are expectations for both central banks in the US and the EU to also raise their key rates in May, which means that we can expect a lot of volatility in the forex market, with interest rate increases becoming more and more analogous to their respective currency’s upside potential. Read next: The report signaled that inflation continues to slow with consumer prices barely rising in March and gasoline prices dropping | FXMAG.COM

This week saw US CPI declining nine month in a row. Thanks to David Kindley from Orbex, we can have a detailed look at the release. FXMAG.COM: Could you please comment on the US CPI after it's released? David Kindley (Orbex): The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped for the ninth consecutive month in March to its lowest level since May 2021. Specifically, consumer prices overall increased 5% year over year, down from 6% in February and from a 40-year high of 9.1% last June, according to the latest release by the US Labor Department. Core inflation is still at a much higher level than the Federal Reserve’s target inflation rate of 2% David Kindley (Orbex): The report signaled that inflation continues to slow with consumer prices barely rising in March and gasoline prices dropping. That being said, core inflation is still at a much higher level than the Federal Reserve’s target inflation rate of 2%. Read next: EM Sovereigns: IMF remains cautious on World Economic Outlook| FXMAG.COM David Kindley (Orbex): While there are forward-looking signs that suggest inflation will slow further in the coming months, market consensus is that the Fed is still likely to increase key rates by another 25 basis points at its May 2-3 policy meeting. Should the Fed decide not to raise rates at their upcoming meeting, stock markets are likely to edge higher as this would signal an end to the Fed’s aggressive hiking cycle. For reference, the Fed has hiked its policy rate by 475 basis points since last March from a near-zero level to the current 5.00% rate.

Recently FXMAG.COM has asked SquaredFinancial analyst, Nour Hammoury, for a comment on Bank of Canada decision. FXMAG.COM: Could you please comment on the BoC decision and its monetary policy report after it's released? Nour Hammoury (SquaredFinancial): It is clear that the Bank of Canada (BoC) has reached the peak of the main interest rate at 4.5%, as inflation has dropped back to 5% from its peak of 8% in June of last year. While the bank is standing ready to raise the interest rate if needed, there is currently no reason to do so. The question going forward is how long the bank can maintain rates at this level before cutting them again Nour Hammoury (SquaredFinancial): The question going forward is how long the bank can maintain rates at this level before cutting them again. Next week, all eyes will be on the inflation data, which is expected to cool down further to as low as four percent. If this happens, markets will anticipate the first possible rate cut before the end of this year. As a result, the recent rally in the Canadian Dollar may come to an end, and the key level to watch is USDCAD 1.33 ahead of the inflation data release next week. Read next: Tesco cuts milk price and locking in the price of 1,000 other everyday products. Total company's revenue rose 7.2% hitting £65.76bn| FXMAG.COM

Reserve Bank of India decided to keep the rates unchanged. Let's hear from Ali Daylami, Head of Data Analytics at BITMarkets. FXMAG.COM: Could you please comment on the Reserve Bank of India decision? Ali Daylami (BITMarkets): After six consecutive hikes, the RBI seems to be in pause mode and is monitoring the effect of global financial havoc on markets from afar. The central bank re-affirmed that it would hike rates once again, if necessary. It raised its key repo rate by 250 basis points since May 2022 to battle inflation and that’s not a minute figure. In previous months, India’s economic activity held ground and began to show signs of weakening consumption Ali Daylami (BITMarkets): In previous months, India’s economic activity held ground and began to show signs of weakening consumption. Notably, manufacturing activity is expanding at a slower place, and exports from India fell above 8% on a year-on-year basis in February, which highlights weakening global demand. Ali Daylami (BITMarkets): Hence, I believe it’s the right call from the RBI to keep rates steady for the time being, as the future revelations surrounding banking & finance would be highly influenced by the degree of trust in which investors and corporations have in banks, and this degree remains unclear. Read next: Canadian dollar: Next week, all eyes will be on the inflation data, which is expected to cool down further to as low as four percent| FXMAG.COM Ali Daylami (BITMarkets): The toxifying global banking and finance conundrums are causing investors to be more cautious of the omnipresent traditional financial systems we’ve grown to rely on. This has glorified cryptocurrencies as an alternative to fiat-denominated assets, as we at BITmarkets witnessed a spectacular surge in the prices of major cryptocurrencies and their trading activity.

Recently FXMAG team has drawn its attention to rally sugar prices wondering what's behind significant gains. We asked Ole Hansen from Saxo Bank to comment on this soft commodity. FXMAG.COM: Could you please comment on the price rally in sugar contracts that has been ongoing since autumn 2022? Ole Hansen (Saxo Bank): Raw sugar (24.30 cents/lb) traded in NY and White sugar ($675/tons) in London both trade near a decade high on persistent worries about tight global supplies. Futures have surged higher on a combination of momentum buying from funds, demand for sugar canes towards biofuel production after OPEC+ cut production. Most important being the risk of lower exports out of India and concerns about production in other key growing countries, such as Pakistan and Thailand Ole Hansen (Saxo Bank): Most important being the risk of lower exports out of India and concerns about production in other key growing countries, such as Pakistan and Thailand. In addition, the May White sugar contract, last at $698 a ton has seen a major short squeeze ahead of Friday's contract expiry as traders holding short positions without physical supplies to deliver need to close out their short positions before expiry. However, following Friday's expiry we may see some consolidation, not least considering the price of both futures markets have entered into overbought territory. Read next: The report signaled that inflation continues to slow with consumer prices barely rising in March and gasoline prices dropping | FXMAG.COM

In the previous week we asked Axel Rudolph to comment on the US PMIs, here's what we got. Axel Rudolph FSTA, Financial Analyst at IG, said: 'US Flash, that is to say preliminary, PMI for April came in at a better-than-expected 50.4 versus a downwardly revised 49.2 in March and a forecast 49. The April PMI thus hit its highest level since September 2002 and, together with a better-than-expected flash services PMI for April, shows that the US economy is once again expanding, having contracted over the past half year or so. Flash services PMI hit 53.7 in April, its third consecutive reading above 50, meaning that it is also expanding, versus a forecast 51.5 and a downwardly revised 52.6 in March. Flash services PMI hit 53.7 in April, its third consecutive reading above 50, meaning that it is also expanding, versus a forecast 51.5 and a downwardly revised 52.6 in March   Axel Rudolph: The solid data plays into the hands of those market participants who believe that due to the underlying health of the US economy the Federal Reserve needs to keep raising its fed funds rate to at least 5% and keep these higher for longer, putting stock markets under pressure.' Read next: IG analyst to FXMAG.COM: In my opinion commodity prices already reflect higher oil prices| FXMAG.COM

Thanks to Alex Kuptsikevich from FxPro, we're able to publish his view on EUR/USD. FXMAG.COM: What do you expect to be the next EUR/USD mover? Alex Kuptsikevich (FxPro): It would not be surprising to see the quiet trading pattern of the first half of the week replaced by a significant recovery towards the end of the week. On Wednesday, we should be wary of the preliminary estimate of the US first-quarter GDP, expected to come at an annualised rate of 2.0%. As a rule, it often deviates from forecasts and provokes a market reaction. We believe Friday's German inflation and labour market estimates for April are more attractive. Inflation is expected to slow from 7.4% to 7.3%. Inflation is expected to slow from 7.4% to 7.3%. Alex Kuptsikevich (FxPro): But this is an early estimate, so there is considerable room for surprises. This report could set the tone for other releases from the major eurozone countries and determine their momentum. A sharp slowdown could put pressure on the EUR/USD as it would increase speculation that the ECB will reduce the pace of rate hikes. On the other hand, strong data could trigger impulsive buying of the single currency and send it to new 13-month highs Alex Kuptsikevich (FxPro): On the other hand, strong data could trigger impulsive buying of the single currency and send it to new 13-month highs. This would be an essential milestone in the trend that began at the end of September last year. The market will then shift to US interest rate expectations, with a decision expected mid-next week. The short-term decision is unlikely to be interesting, with the market pricing in a 90% chance of a 25-point hike. The main market driver will likely be clues about the Fed's next steps: Whether policy tightening will end there and when to expect a reversal. Read next: Cryptocurrency payments are steadily increasing, particularly as the DeFi market rebounds from the ‘crypto winter’| FXMAG.COM

Thanks to an opportunity to talk to Transact365 we've recently asked them whether they see, by any chance, a shifting popularity of various payment methods? Do stats confirm that cryptocurrencies slowly become real alternatives to traditional currency conversion when it comes to e.g. international payments? Let's hear from Scott Major, COO of the company. Scott Major (Transact365): Akin to industry research, Transact365 is seeing continual diversification of payment-making preferences across global markets.  Scott Major: The proliferation of embedded finance technology within API-based BNPL platforms, such as Klarna and Affirm, has increased payment flexibility. Reduced cart abandonment rates are another significant advantage. Research suggests that when merchants use BNPL payment options abandonment is slashed by almost 40%. With cart abandonment rates averaging 70% - the equivalent of $18billion a year - there are significant savings to be made by utilising BNPL options. Consumers holding crypto reached 4.2% of all shoppers in 2023 Scott Major: Other emerging technologies within the Web3 space, such as AI, the Metaverse and the continual growth of DLTs such as Blockchain, mean consumers have more choices and ease of payment than ever before. The process of shopping online has been simplified via increased options - a rare success story when tech companies target widespread sector innovation. For merchants, increased payment flexibility has facilitated growth; new markets and demographics are taking advantage of tailored solutions that fit individual geographical and economic situations. Scott Major: Cryptocurrency payments are steadily increasing, particularly as the DeFi market rebounds from the ‘crypto winter’. Consumers holding crypto reached 4.2% of all shoppers in 2023. This figure is even higher in developed economies home to tech hubs; 22% of UK adults own cryptocurrency with 28% likely to trade or buy crypto within the next 12 months. Within this, there is a greater diversification of cryptocurrency payment types; Bitcoin remains dominant, but other altcoins are becoming established as viable options for investment and spending. The likes of Litecoin (9.6%) and TRON (5.2%) take their place behind Ethereum, at 10.9% of all shopping-based crypto use.  Read next: IG analyst to FXMAG.COM: In my opinion commodity prices already reflect higher oil prices| FXMAG.COM Scott Major: Innovations to the payments space, which have made significant steps toward seamless crypto facilitation, are likely to further altcoins' use in e-commerce purchasing. In turn, this provides unique opportunities for merchant scale-up. Offering cryptocurrency as a payment option, as leading gateway providers such as Transact365 now do, allows merchants to access previously untapped regions; ones with less reliable traditional finance infrastructures, heavier payment fees, or higher risk options. Crypto’s ability to facilitate fast, inexpensive payments is a key attribute driving adoption and use. Adoption will likely increase in the coming years as consumer preferences diversify and Web3 technologies usher in a more decentralised landscape.  Attributed by Scott Major, CCO at Transact365  

Today we go back to the comment of Andria Pichdi from HF Markets, who talked bank earnings some time ago. FXMAG.COM: Banks earnings turned out to be quite impressive. Could you please comment on this fact, in context of recent banking sector turmoil? Andria Pichdi (HF Markets): Indeed, many of the biggest banks reported solid earnings and revenue gains for Q1 2023, however the US recession fears, elevated mortgage rates, and the risk of more bank failures persist! Even though the Banks, e.g JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo, reported solid earnings, their reports showed weakness in deposits and declines in net interest income, along with increased loan loss provisions. That said, worries increased that a worsening credit contraction from the SVB fallout will exacerbate weakness in the economy in 2H. Credit was already tightening before the early March banking turmoil and the Fed's Beige Book in April noted some "sharp" and "significant" deterioration in financial conditions in the San Francisco and New York Districts. But there are worries over knock-on effects rippling across the nation. Read next: Apple earnings: Company did not give an outlook for the next quarter, which could prove even more challenging due to parts shortages and competition| FXMAG.COM

Please, could you comment Turkish central bank' interest rate decision? Keeping interest rates unchanged at 8.5% was in-line with consensus expectations shared by investors and analysts alike. It showcases the central bank’s iteration that Turkey’s current monetary policy is adequate to aid the necessary economic recovery following the latest devastating earthquake. Natural disasters have left Turkish residents dismantled yet again, fueling further depreciation to its eroded currency. We’ve witnessed the USD/TRY printing modest gains following the decision, weakening the battered lira ahead of the upcoming presidential election. Currently run by Erdogan, which received quite the criticism for the central bank’s increasingly-hawkish monetary policy, Turkey’s crisis may deepen further should he be re-elected. Future supply-demand imbalances driven by earthquakes are being eyed by the CBRT; it is key for the nation’s central bank to keep an eye out on Turkey’s financial situation to avoid any further deterioration. Some light in the dark, industrial production is on the rise and employment is growing, so it’s important to hone this momentum to secure some recovery in the foreseeable future. This will be pivotal not only on a national perspective but also on the macro scale. Turkey is the physical bridge between Asia and Europe, and the robustness of its bilateral relations with the European Union and NATO are significant for the country’s economic welfare and that of its allies. BITmarkets sends its extended support to its Turkish traders and investors in such troubling times, and we hope that the coming years will be more economically-prosperous.

Summer is almost here and it seems, despite inflation, travelling may become more popular again as almost all COVID-19-related restrictions are removed and crude oil prices seems to be quite low compared to those one month ago. FXMAG.COM: Inflation seems to be slowly and gradually decreasing. Crude oil price is significantly lower than previous summer, would you expect airlines to increase their revenue in the second half of 2023? Alex Kuptsikevich (FxPro): The fall in crude oil prices and the removal of almost all travel restrictions can support passenger traffic and bring it back to pre-pandemic levels. Apart from the lifting of limitations, it is worth mentioning the desire of some people to compensate for sitting at home in previous years. According to FlightRadar24 statistics, the number of flights is already 18% higher than in 2019 for the same period and 15% higher than in 2022 According to FlightRadar24 statistics, the number of flights is already 18% higher than in 2019 for the same period and 15% higher than in 2022. This is good news in terms of potential revenue for airlines. The bad news is that many airlines were bailed out or got support lines from their governments during the pandemic, and now is the time to pay those debts. So it's worth choosing airlines very carefully as they may be forced to give up too much of their profits. Read next: Bitcoin and Ether's buying opportunities on market dips| FXMAG.COM

As we're getting through earnings season, we reached out to Chris Beauchamp from IG Group, to ask him for a comment on Aramco earnings. Chris Beauchamp, Chief Market Analyst at IG Group said, "Aramco's decision to increase its payout is an interesting move that comes despite a sharp drop in oil prices over the last 12 months. But with a recession still a possibility there is the risk that earnings will decline further after a bumper 2022, putting pressure on the firm's income streams." Read next: Limited S&P 500 growth: for every strong performer there is usually an underperformer, and the banks are the culprits here - says IG Chief Market Analyst| FXMAG.COM