fundamental analysis

Contents Introduction What is fundamental analysis? Fundamental analysis (FA) vs. technical analysis (TA) Popular indicators in fundamental analysis Earnings per share (EPS) Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio Price-to-book (P/B) ratio Price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio Fundamental analysis and cryptocurrencies Network value-to-transactions (NVT) ratio Active addresses Price-to-mining breakeven ratio Whitepaper, team, and roadmap  Pros and cons of fundamental analysis Closing thoughts   Introduction When it comes to trading – whether you’re dealing with century-old stocks or nascent cryptocurrencies – there’s no exact science involved. Or, if there is, Wall Street’s top players ensure that the formula remains a well-kept secret. What we have instead is a vast array of tools and methodologies employed by traders and investors. For the most part, you can sort these techniques into two categories: fundamental analysis (FA) and technical analysis (TA). In this article, we’ll dive into the basics of fundamental analysis. Learn more on Binance.com   What is fundamental analysis? Fundamental analysis is a method used by investors and traders to attempt to establish the intrinsic value of assets or businesses. To value these accurately, they’ll rigorously study internal and external factors to determine whether the asset or business in question is overvalued or undervalued. Their conclusions can then help to better formulate a strategy that will be more likely to yield good returns. For instance, if you took an interest in a company, you might first study things like the company’s earnings, balance sheets, financial statements, and cash flow to get a feel for its financial health. You might then zoom out of the organization to look at the market or industry it’s operating in. Who are the competitors? What demographics is the company targeting? Is it expanding its reach? You could zoom out even further to take into account the economic considerations like interest rates and inflation, to name just a couple of factors. The above is what’s known as a bottom-up approach: you start with a company you’re interested in and work your way up to understand its place in the broader economy. But you could equally adopt a top-down approach, where you narrow down your picks by first examining the bigger picture. The end goal with this type of analysis is to generate an expected share price and to compare it with the current price. If the number is higher than the current price, you might conclude that it’s undervalued. If it’s lower than the market price, then you could assume that it’s presently overvalued. Armed with the data from your analysis, you can make informed decisions about whether to buy or sell that particular company’s stock.   Fundamental analysis (FA) vs. technical analysis (TA) Traders and investors new to the cryptocurrency, forex, or stock markets are often confused over which approach to take. Fundamental analysis and technical analysis stand in stark contrast and rely on significantly different methodologies to analyze different things. And yet, both provide data relevant to trading. So which one is best? In fact, it might make more sense to question what each brings to the table. In essence, fundamental analysts believe that stock price is not necessarily indicative of the stock’s true value – an ideology that underpins their investment decisions.  Conversely, technical analysts believe that future price movement can be somewhat predicted from past price action and volume data. They don’t concern themselves with studying external factors, preferring instead to focus on price charts, patterns, and trends in markets. They aim to identify ideal points for entering and exiting positions. Proponents of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) believe that it’s impossible to consistently outperform the market with technical analysis (TA). The theory suggests that financial markets represent all known information about assets (that they are “rational”) and that they already take into account historical data. “Weaker” versions of the EMH do not discredit fundamental analysis, but “stronger” forms argue that it’s impossible, even with rigorous research, to gain a competitive edge. Understandably, there is no objectively better strategy out of the pair, as both can present valuable insights into different areas. Some may lend themselves better to certain trading styles, and, in practice, many traders use a combination of both to observe the bigger picture. This is true for short-term trades as it is for long-term investments.   Popular indicators in fundamental analysis We don’t look to candlesticks, MACD, or RSI for insights in fundamental analysis – there are a handful of FA-specific indicators that are used instead. In this section, we’ll discuss some of the most popular ones.   Earnings per share (EPS) Earnings per share is an established measure of a company’s profitability, telling us how much profit it makes for each outstanding share. It’s calculated using the following formula: (net income - preferred dividends) / number of shares   Suppose that a company doesn’t pay out dividends, and its profit is $1 million. With 200,000 shares issued, the formula gives us an EPS of $5. The calculation is not a particularly complex one, but it can provide us with some insight into potential investments. Businesses with higher (or growing) EPS are typically more attractive to investors. Diluted earnings per share is favored by some, as it also takes into account factors that could increase the total number of shares. In the case of stock options, for example, employees are given the option to purchase company stock. Because this generally gives a higher number of shares to divide the net income, we would expect to see a lower value for diluted EPS versus simple EPS. As with all indicators, earnings per share should not be the sole metric used to value a prospective investment. That said, it’s a handy tool when used alongside others.   Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio The price-to-earnings ratio (or, simply, P/E ratio) values a business by comparing share price with its EPS. It’s calculated with the following formula: share price / earnings per share   Let’s reuse the same company from the previous example, which had an EPS of $5. Let’s say that each share trades at $10, which would give us a P/E ratio of 2. What does that mean? Well, it depends largely on what the rest of our research shows.  Many use the profit-to-earnings ratio to determine whether a stock is overvalued (if the ratio is higher) or undervalued (if the ratio is lower). It’s a good idea to take the number into account by comparing it with the P/E ratio of similar businesses. Again, this rule doesn’t always hold true, so it’s best used alongside other quantitative and qualitative analysis techniques.   Price-to-book (P/B) ratio The price-to-book ratio (also known as the price-to-equity ratio or the P/B ratio) can tell us about how investors value the company in relation to its book value. The book value is a business’s value as defined in its financial reports (typically, assets minus liabilities). The calculation looks like this: price per share / book value per share   Let’s once again revisit our company from previous examples. We’ll assume that it has a book value of $500,000. Each share trades at $10, and there are 200,000 of them. Our book value per share is, therefore, $500,000 divided by 200,000, which gives us $2.5.  Plugging the numbers into the formula, $10 divided by $2.5 gives us a price-to-book ratio of 4. On the surface, this doesn’t look too good. It tells us that shares are currently trading for four times what the company is actually worth on paper. It could suggest that the market is overvaluing the business, perhaps by expecting huge growth. If we had a ratio of less than 1, it would point to the business having more value than the market currently recognizes. A limitation of the price-to-book ratio is that it’s better suited to the assessment of “asset-heavy” businesses. After all, companies with little physical assets are not well-represented.   Price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio Price/earnings-to-growth ratio (PEG) is an extension to the profit-to-earnings ratio, expanding its scope to take growth rates into account. It uses the following formula: price-to-earnings ratio / earnings growth rate   The earnings growth rate is an estimate of the predicted growth in earnings for the company in a set time frame. We express it as a percentage. Suppose that we’ve estimated average growth of 10% over the next five years for our aforementioned company. We take the price-to-earnings ratio (2) and divide it by 10 to reach a ratio of 0.2. That ratio would suggest that the company is a good investment as it’s heavily undervalued when we factor in future growth. Any business with a ratio of less than 1, generally speaking, is undervalued. Any above could be overvalued. The PEG ratio is favored over the P/E one by many, as it considers a fairly important variable that P/E omits.   ➟ Looking to get started with cryptocurrency? Buy Bitcoin on Binance!   Fundamental analysis and cryptocurrencies The aforementioned metrics aren’t really applicable in cryptocurrency. Instead, you might look to other factors to assess a project’s viability. In the following section are a handful of indicators used by cryptocurrency traders.   Network value-to-transactions (NVT) ratio Often regarded as the P/E ratio equivalent of the cryptocurrency markets, the NVT ratio is fast becoming a staple in crypto FA. It can be calculated as follows: network value / daily transaction volume   NVT attempts to interpret a given network’s value based on the value of transactions it processes. Suppose that you have two projects: Coin A and Coin B. Both have a market capitalization of $1,000,000. However, Coin A has a daily transaction volume worth $50,000, whereas Coin B’s is worth $10,000. The NVT ratio for Coin A is 20, and the NVT for Coin B is 100. Generally speaking, assets with lower NVT ratios are considered undervalued, while those with higher ratios may be considered overvalued. These merits alone suggest that Coin A is undervalued compared to Coin B.   Active addresses Some look to the number of active addresses on a network to gauge how much it’s being used. While not reliable as a standalone indicator (the metric can be gamed), it can nonetheless reveal information about network activity. You might factor that into your true valuation of a given digital asset.   Price-to-mining-breakeven ratio The price-to-mining-breakeven ratio is a metric for valuing Proof of Work coins, which are mined by network participants. It takes into account the costs associated with this process: namely, electricity and hardware expenditure. coin market price / cost to mine a coin   The price-to-mining-breakeven ratio can reveal a lot about the current state of a blockchain network. The breakeven refers to the cost of mining a coin – for instance, if it’s at $10,000, then miners typically spend $10,000 to generate a new unit. Suppose that Coin A trades at $5,000 and Coin B at $20,000, and both have a breakeven point of $10,000. Coin A’s ratio will be 0.5, while Coin B’s will be 2. Since Coin A’s ratio is under 1, it tells us that miners are operating at a loss to mine the coin. Mining Coin B is profitable as, for every $10,000 spent mining, you would expect to make $20,000. Because of the incentives, you might anticipate that the ratio would trend towards 1 over time. For Coin A, those mining at a loss would likely leave the network unless the price increased. Coin B has an attractive reward, so you’d expect more miners to join to take advantage of it until it’s no longer profitable. The effectiveness of this indicator is disputed. Still, it gives you an idea of the mining economics, which you can factor into your overall assessment of a digital asset.   Whitepaper, team, and roadmap The most popular method for establishing the value of cryptocurrencies and tokens involves some good old-fashioned research into the project. Reading a whitepaper, you can understand a project’s goals, its use cases, and its technology. The track records of team members give you an idea of their ability to build and scale the product. Lastly, a roadmap tells you whether the project is on track. It can be supplemented with additional research to determine the likelihood that the project will hit its milestones.   Pros and cons of fundamental analysis Pros of fundamental analysis Fundamental analysis is a robust methodology for assessing businesses in a way that technical analysis simply cannot compete with. To investors worldwide, studying a range of qualitative and quantitative factors is a crucial starting point for any trade. Anyone can conduct fundamental analysis as it relies on tried-and-tested techniques and readily-available business data. Or at least, this is the case in traditional markets. Indeed, if we look to cryptocurrency (still a small industry), data is not always available, and a heavy correlation between assets means that FA might not be as effective. Done correctly, it provides a foundation for identifying stocks currently undervalued and poised to appreciate over time. Top investors like Warren Buffett and Benjamin Graham have consistently demonstrated that rigorous research into businesses in this manner can yield tremendous results.   Cons of fundamental analysis It’s easy to do fundamental analysis, but it’s tougher to do good fundamental analysis. Determining the “intrinsic value” of a stock is a time-consuming process that requires a lot more work than just plugging numbers into a formula. Many factors need to be assessed, and the learning curve for doing so effectively can be steep. What’s more, it’s better suited to long-term trades than short-term ones. This type of analysis also overlooks powerful market forces and trends that technical analysis can identify. As economist John Maynard Keynes once said:  The market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Stocks that appear undervalued (by every metric) are not guaranteed to increase in value in the future.   Closing thoughts Fundamental analysis is an established practice that some of the most successful traders swear by. By refining a strategy, investors can not only learn to better estimate the true value of stocks, cryptocurrencies, and other assets but also understand businesses and industries better as a whole. Combined with technical analysis, fundamental analysis can give traders and investors a well-rounded understanding of which assets and businesses they could profit from. The combination of FA and TA is favored by many in both the legacy and cryptocurrency markets. Given the nascency of the crypto markets, however, you should understand that FA may not be as effective. Always Do Your Own Research and ensure that you have a solid risk management strategy in place.   ➟ Questions about Fundamental Analysis? Head over to Ask Academy to discuss them with the community!

Analyzing Tuesday's trades GBP/USD on 30M chart   On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair displayed a significant rebound, which is difficult to explain from a fundamental or macroeconomic perspective. In addition, a new descending trendline has formed, which clearly passes through the three recent price peaks.   Thus, despite the British currency's growth, the downtrend persists. There was no macro data or fundamental background in either the UK or the US. Therefore, it is quite difficult for us to explain what caused the dollar's decline. However, technical corrections are still relevant, so the sudden growth shouldn't be that surprising. So far, nothing bad has happened to the downtrend.   The pound may fall as early as Wednesday, especially considering that the pair has already started to fall by the end of Tuesday. Moreover, there will be significant events and reports in the last three days of the week, which may prompt traders to buy the dollar again, regardless of their positions.     Several trading signals were formed on the 5-minute chart on Tuesday. The levels 1.2351 and 1.2367 will be removed from the charts. The levels 1.2307 and 1.2386 have been added, but they were not included in the signal formation process. The first sell signal was near the 1.2351 level. The pair managed to move down by only 15 pips, resulting in a loss when the price settled above the 1.2367 level. This same signal should have been executed using long positions, and the pair subsequently rose to the 1.2420 level and settled above it. The long position should have been closed when the price settled below this level. Immediately after that, short positions should have been opened, which should have been manually closed closer to the evening. As a result, the first trade ended in a loss, but the other two were profitable. Overall, novice traders made a profit. Trading tips on Wednesday: As seen on the 30M chart, the GBP/USD pair is generally moving down, but over the past week, we have seen more of a flat than a trend-driven movement. I expect the pound to fall further since it has not fallen enough yet. Breaking the new trendline may temporarily change market sentiment to bullish. The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.2171-1.2179, 1.2245, 1.2307, 1.2386, 1.2420, 1.2470, 1.2507-1.2520, 1.2597-1.2616. When the price moves 20 pips in the right direction after opening a trade, a stop loss can be set at breakeven. On Wednesday, there are no important events or reports scheduled in the UK, while the US will release the JOLTS report on job openings.   The market will only react to this report if the actual value significantly deviates from the forecast. Basic rules of the trading system: 1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal.     2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored.     3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.     4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually.     5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.   6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.   How to read charts: Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade. MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross. This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines.   Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.    

EUR/USD On Tuesday, the euro went through a correction, defined by the convergence with the Marlin oscillator. The price once again tested the target level of 1.0738 and the embedded line of the descending channel. The signal line of the oscillator has entered its own descending channel.     According to the main scenario, the price can now consolidate below the support level of 1.0692 and continue moving towards 1.0620, which is the lower embedded line of the price channel. The alternative scenario is simple - after settling above 1.0738, a test of the target resistance at 1.0804 is possible. This would extend the correction.     On the four-hour chart, the price has returned below the MACD indicator line after a false breakout above it. The Marlin oscillator has moved into the negative territory after briefly staying in the positive area. The trend is bearish.  

On Friday, there will be a few macroeconomic reports, but all of them will be very important. Neither the European Union nor the United Kingdom will issue data today. All the information will come from the US. There will be three reports, two of which are of the highest significance. Nonfarm Payrolls show the number of jobs created in a month outside the agricultural sector. This is a key labor market indicator. It is expected that 180-190 thousand jobs were created in May. Any number lower than this will be considered negative.       The unemployment rate is the second key labor market indicator. It is expected that by the end of May, the rate will increase to 3.5%. However, even 3.6% should not shock traders as it is still a very low value, close to the lowest one recorded 50 years ago. The average hourly earnings is the last report that will be issued today.   This indicator has a direct impact on the inflation rate. The annual increase in wages should not exceed the previous month's value. However, this data is less significant than the first two reports. Analysis of fundamental events:     There are no fundamental events planned for Friday. In recent days, both pairs have been showing a persistent desire to grow, which is not always justified by specific factors. If the growth in the euro makes sense, the pound's appreciation is raising many questions. However, the short-term trend has changed to ascending for both pairs. Thus, further growth can be expected unless the reports from the US are much stronger than the forecasts.   General conclusions: On Friday, there will be two important reports. Both of them will be published at the start of the US trading session. There will be no important events in the first half of the day. Also, yesterday, it was reported that the US House of Representatives approved an increase in the debt ceiling. Thus, there will be no default in the US. Yesterday's fall in the dollar was partially caused by this event. However, it is not logical. The market could have priced in the approval of the increase (since there were no other options, really), and now it could be benefiting from short orders. Nevertheless, we still expect a stronger drop from the euro and the pound.   Basis trading rules: 1) The strength of a signal is judged by the time it took to form the signal (a bounce or overcoming level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal is. 2) If two or more trades were opened around any level based on false signals, then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored. 3) In a flat market, any pair can form a multitude of false signals or not form them at all. In any case, at the first signs of a flat movement, it is better to stop trading. 4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and the middle of the US one when all trades should be manually closed. 5) In the 30-minute period, you can trade using signals from the MACD indicator only when there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel. 6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 pips), they should be considered as a support or resistance area.     What we see on the chart: Price levels of support and resistance are levels that act as targets when opening buy or sell orders. Take profit levels can be placed near them. Red lines are channels or trend lines that show the current trend and indicate in which direction it is preferable to trade now. MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and signal line, that is an auxiliary indicator, which can also be used as a source of signals. Important speeches and reports (always included in the macroeconomic calendar) can have a significant influence on the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, you should trade with maximum caution or exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners should remember that not every trade can be profitable. A clear strategy and money management are key to success in long-term trading.      

FXMAG.COM: Do you expect any radical moves of EUR/GBP price in the near future? What can cause such fluctuations?  As forex traders keenly observe the EUR/GBP currency pair, there is speculation surrounding the likelihood of substantial price movements in the near future. Examining the underlying factors that can trigger notable fluctuations is essential for making informed decisions in the market.   Macroeconomic indicators, including GDP growth, inflation rates, and employment figures, offer valuable insights into the potential for significant moves in the EUR/GBP price.   Based on the latest available data for Q1 of 2023, Eurozone GDP growth experienced a 1.3% increase, while the UK maintained a stable growth rate of 0.10%. Political developments exert a considerable impact on the EUR/GBP exchange rate. Notably, events such as the recent UK election or updates related to Brexit have proven to be catalysts for volatility.   Staying well-informed about key political developments is crucial, as they can significantly influence the price of this currency pair. Central bank policies play a pivotal role in shaping the EUR/GBP exchange rate.   The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) periodically announce monetary policy decisions that affect this currency pair. It is important to keep a close watch on interest rate adjustments, quantitative easing programs, and forward guidance statements.   As of the latest interest rate decision on February 2, 2023, the ECB maintained rates at 3%, while the BoE held rates at 4.5% with a slight increase of 0.25% on May 11, 2023. Global economic trends and market sentiment can also influence the EUR/GBP price.   Trade relations between the Eurozone and the UK, as well as global economic conditions, can cause significant fluctuations. Monitoring geopolitical events, risk appetite indicators, and market sentiment can provide valuable insights into potential radical moves in this currency pair.   Predicting significant shifts in the EUR/GBP price is a complex task. However, analysing key factors such as macroeconomic indicators, political developments, central bank policies, and global economic trends can enhance your understanding of potential fluctuations. As of the latest available data on May 23, 2023, at 12:51, the EUR/GBP exchange rate stands at 0.87057. Stay well-informed about the latest news and events to navigate the market effectively and make informed trading decisions.

Expect the US dollar rally to extend    The US dollar broadly weakened across the board, helping majors to take some breather. The dollar index fell back towards its 200-DMA, the EURUSD settles above the 1.09 mark this morning, while Cable bulls eye a further rise toward the 50-DMA, which stands a touch below the 1.28 level. But looking at the US dollar and the real yields, the end of last year's dollar really coincides with a peak in 10-year real yield. Both started retreating in Q3 of last year. The dollar retreated relatively faster. And now that the real yields are on the rise again, there is little reason to keep the USD on a bearish trend for the months ahead.   The dollar rally which started by mid-July should further develop, and there is significant room for further correction before we could technically call the end of the dollar's bearish trend. In numbers, the dollar index will still be in a bearish trend below the 105.40 mark. Until that level is reached, investors don't have much to lose for jumping on the back of a bull.  

The AUD/USD pair is stuck in the 0.6380-0.6450 range. In general, the current fundamental background allows bulls to expect new price gains, if not for one "but" – the greenback. The US dollar's position is quite strong, and this serves as an obstacle to the development of an upward movement. However, AUD/USD bears are also unable to take advantage of the greenback's strength: as soon as the pair declines into the 63-figure area, sellers take profits, thus impeding the bearish momentum.   In other words, the pair is in a deadlock situation. To develop an upward movement, buyers need to overcome the level of 0.6450 (the Tenkan-sen line on the daily chart), and in order to restore the downtrend, sellers need to push through the support level of 0.6370 (the lower Bollinger Bands line on the same timeframe). Both are challenging tasks, given the current fundamental picture. Traders need a strong informational impetus that will push the pair out of the range – either to the south or to the north. The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is on the greenback's side. The results of the latest Fed meeting supported the US currency. The central bank updated its dot plot, indicating that it intends to raise interest rates once again by the end of this year, either at the November or December meeting.   Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed these intentions, citing the high level of inflation. However, Powell tied future central bank decisions to the dynamics of key inflation indicators. This is why the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, which will be published on Friday (September 29), may trigger strong volatility among dollar pairs. According to preliminary forecasts, this crucial inflation indicator is expected to decrease to 3.9% YoY, which is the lowest value since September 2021. In such a case, the dollar bulls may come under pressure because the likelihood of a rate hike in November will significantly decrease (at the moment, this probability is around 30%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool). Conversely, if the index starts to gain momentum and goes against forecasts, hawkish expectations regarding the Fed's future course of actions will increase. Take note that inflation could provide support to the aussie. In this case, we're talking about the Australian Consumer Price Index.   The inflation data for August will be published on Wednesday. The market forecast was for a 5.2% increase in the reported period. If the release comes in at least at the forecasted level (not to mention the "green zone"), the Australian dollar could receive significant support. The key point here is that the CPI has been consistently declining for the past three months, reaching 4.9% in July. If the CPI grows, it will be a "warning sign" for the Reserve Bank of Australia.   It's important to recall the main points from the recently published minutes of the RBA's September meeting. The text mentioned that the Board considered two scenarios: 1) a 25-basis-point rate hike; 2) keeping the rate unchanged. In the end, the majority of the RBA officials agreed with the arguments in favor of maintaining the status quo. However, simultaneously, the central bank emphasized that "some further tightening may be required" in the future if inflation proves to be "more persistent than expected." Clearly, the August CPI will be viewed by the market in terms of a potential RBA reaction. If the gauge exceeds expectations, buyers of AUD/USD will have an informational catalyst for an upward movement.     Do recall that the recent Australian labor data was also in favor of the aussie. Unemployment in August remained at the July level (i.e., at 3.7%), despite forecasts of an increase to 3.9%. The employment figure also grew significantly, reflecting an increase of almost 65,000, while the forecast was for an increase of only 26,000. The labor force participation rate increased to 67.0%, which is the highest result in the history of these observations. In addition, Australia's GDP data, which was published in early September, also supported the aussie, although the report was somewhat contradictory.   The country's GDP increased by 2.1% year-on-year in the second quarter. On one hand, this figure shows a downtrend (the result for the first quarter was 2.4%, and for the fourth quarter of 2022, it was 2.6%). On the other hand, experts had forecasted a weaker result for the second quarter, around 1.8% year-on-year. Therefore, the Australian dollar may emerge in the near future.   If Australia's inflation report comes out in the "green zone" (or at least in line with forecasts), and the report on the core PCE index comes out in the "red zone" (or at least in line with forecasts), buyers of AUD/USD may not only test the resistance level at 0.6450 (the Tenkan-sen line on the daily chart) but also approach the next price barrier at 0.6500 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the same timeframe). So, all eyes are on inflation!