Forex market analysis

GBP: Table top mountain The UK rates curve softened by 9-10bp yesterday on comments by Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill, that the policy rate profile would look more like a "table mountain" – the inference here is that high rates would be kept for longer than the need to take rates much higher per se. However, the market still prices another 50bp of tightening into next year, which is 25bp too much in our opinion. The risk of re-pricing looks greater for the BoE than the ECB curve and keeps us positive on EUR/GBP. Levels in the 0.8500/8550 area should be good for corporates to hedge GBP receivables or EUR payables.  

The previous trading week was filled with important events and reports. When looking at the range and movements of both instruments, one might wonder: why was it so subdued? It was reasonable to expect stronger movements and market reactions. To briefly recap, key reports from the United States turned out weaker than market expectations. Even the stronger ones left a peculiar impression. GDP grew by 2.1% in the second quarter, not the expected 2.4%. The ADP report showed fewer new jobs than expected. Nonfarm Payrolls reported more jobs, but the previous month's figure was revised downward. The ISM Manufacturing Index increased but remained below the 50.0 mark. The unemployment rate rose to 3.8%, which few had anticipated.     Based on all these reports, one might have assumed that it was time to build a corrective upward wave, but on Thursday and Friday, the market raised demand for the US dollar, so both instruments ended the week near their recent lows. So what can we expect this week?   On Monday, the most interesting event will be European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's speech. On Tuesday, another speech by Lagarde, as well as Services PMIs of the European Union, Germany, and the United Kingdom. We can also expect speeches by other members of the ECB Governing Council. I advise you to monitor the information related to Lagarde's speeches. If she softens her stance, it can have a negative impact on the euro's positions. Wednesday will begin with a report on retail trade in the EU and end with the US ISM Services PMI. We can consider the ISM report as the main item of the week, although the ISM Manufacturing PMI that was released on Friday did not stir much market reaction. It is likely that the index will remain above the 52.7 mark, which is unlikely to trigger a market reaction. On Thursday, you should pay attention to the final estimate of GDP in the second quarter for the European Union. If it comes in below 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, the market may reduce demand for the euro. The US will release its weekly report on initial jobless claims. On Friday, Germany will publish its inflation report for August, and that's about it. There are hardly any important events and reports this week. Based on the conducted analysis, I came to the conclusion that the upward wave pattern is complete. I still believe that targets in the 1.0500-1.0600 range are feasible, and I recommend selling the instrument with these targets in mind. I will continue to sell the instrument with targets located near the levels of 1.0637 and 1.0483. A successful attempt to break through the 1.0788 level will indicate the market's readiness to sell further, and then we can expect the aforementioned targets, which I have been talking about for several weeks and months.     The wave pattern of the GBP/USD pair suggests a decline within the downtrend. There is a risk of completing the current downward wave if it is d, and not wave 1. In this case, the construction of wave 5 might begin from the current marks. But in my opinion, we are currently witnessing the construction of the first wave of a new segment. Therefore, the most that we can expect from this is the construction of wave "2" or "b". I still recommend selling with targets located near the level of 1.2442, which corresponds to 100.0% according to Fibonacci  

Analysis of transactions and tips for trading GBP/USD The test of 1.2623 on Monday afternoon, coinciding with the drop of the MACD line from zero, prompted a sell signal that should have led to a price decrease. However, the signal only resulted in losses, as the bearish market did not continue. Data on the UK's service and composite PMI lies ahead, and they could lead to a further drop in GBP/USD provided that the reports show a downward revision. This means that market players should be inclined more to short positions, especially in the morning. If sellers do not show activity after updating the monthly lows, it may be appropriate to consider long positions.   For long positions: Buy when pound hits 1.2621 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2671 (thicker green line on the chart). Growth will occur amid very good PMI data. However, when buying, ensure that the MACD line lies above zero or just starts to rise from it. Pound can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.2570, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2621 and 1.2671. For short positions: Sell when pound reaches 1.2570 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2530. Pressure will increase amid weak statistics. However, when selling, ensure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Pound can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.2621, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2570 and 1.2530.   What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy GBP/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell GBP/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market   Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.  

Analysis of transactions and tips for trading EUR/USD The test of 1.0790, which occurred on Monday afternoon, coincided with the decline of the MACD line from zero, prompting a signal to sell. However, normal downward movement did not occur due to low market volatility caused by the US holiday Data on service and composite PMIs, as well as PPI in the eurozone, lie ahead, and they could lead to a further drop in EUR/USD provided that the reports show a downward revision. This means that market players should be inclined more to short positions, especially in the morning. If sellers do not show activity after updating the monthly lows, it will be more appropriate to consider long positions.     For long positions: Buy when euro hits 1.0788 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0829. Growth may occur after hawkish statements from the ECB and strong statistics in the eurozone. However, when buying, ensure that the MACD line lies above zero or just starts to rise from it. Euro can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.0760, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0788 and 1.0829. For short positions: Sell when euro reaches 1.0760 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0722. Pressure will increase in the event of poor PMI data. However, when selling, traders must ensure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Euro can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.0788, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0760 and 1.0722.   What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy EUR/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell EUR/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market   Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

In the world of forex trading, it's essential to grasp the concepts of lots, mini lots, and micro lots before diving into the market. Let's break down these fundamental terms to provide a comprehensive understanding for both novice and experienced traders. What is a Lot? Forex trading involves currency pairs, such as EUR/USD. The value of a currency pair, say EUR/USD at 1.1500, implies that to hold 1 euro, you need to spend 1.15 dollars. Transactions involve buying one currency while selling the other. Lots are units used to measure the amount of money invested in a specific currency pair. One lot equals 100,000 units of the base currency. For instance, buying 100,000 euros against dollars is referred to as purchasing 1 lot of EUR/USD. It's crucial to note the existence of leverage in forex trading, allowing investors to trade more significant amounts than the funds available. With a 1:100 leverage, possessing only 1,000 USD enables trading with 100,000 USD. Mini Lots and Micro Lots While a standard lot is the basic trading unit, traders have the flexibility to open positions in smaller increments. This leads us to the concepts of mini lots and micro lots. Mini Lot: One-tenth of a standard lot, equal to 10,000 units of the base currency. Micro Lot: The smallest tradable amount at most brokers, constituting 1/100 of a lot or 1,000 units of the base currency. Especially for beginners, starting with micro lots is advisable before advancing to mini and standard lots. Lot in Trading Practice With this knowledge, let's delve into a practical example of buying and selling currencies. Consider the EUR/USD pair, assuming an upward trend. Opting to buy 1 lot of EUR/USD at a rate of 1.1505/1.1537 with a target at 1.1880 and a protective stop order at 1.1450, we can calculate the potential profit. In summary: EUR/USD: 1.1505/1.1537 Ask: 1.1537 Take Profit: 1.1880 Stop Loss: 1.1450 Calculating potential profit for 1 lot: (1.1880−1.1537)×10���=3430���(1.1880−1.1537)×10USD=3430USD For a mini lot, the profit would be 343 USD, and for a micro lot, it would be 34.30 USD. Considering potential loss in this example: (1.1537−1.1505)×10���=320���(1.1537−1.1505)×10USD=320USD The loss for a mini lot would be 32 USD, and for a micro lot, it would be 3.20 USD. As illustrated, trading volume significantly impacts both potential gains and losses. Beginning with smaller volumes allows traders to consider not only potential profits but also potential losses, fostering a prudent approach to forex trading.