foreign

Summary:

  • UK CPI inflation data came in at 9.1% for May.
  • BoJ remaining dovish.
  • Fears of a recession loom.

Read next: ECB’s Christine Lagarde Eased Fears (EUR/USD, EUR/CHF), Expectations Of A More Hawkish BoE Strengthen (EUR/GBP, GBP/USD) 

ECB could benefit from QEQT combination

The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The Euro currency could benefit if the European Central Bank (ECB) uses the European continent's fragmented economic landscape to its advantage by combining both quantitative easing (QE) and quantitative tightening (QT) to normalise monetary policy by minimising upset.

The Euro has been recovering against the US Dollar this week. Concerns over a recession in the US have grown as the Fed continue on their hawkish path of fighting inflation.

Fears Of Recession Loom (EUR/USD), UK CPI Inflation Data 9.1% For May (EUR/GBP), Surprisingly Strong Canadian Inflation Data (USD/CAD), EUR/JPY - 1 EUR/USD Price Chart

UK CPI inflation data met market expectations

The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. The pound sterling weakened against the Euro in the direct wak

The EUR/JPY Pair Is Likely To Approach The Uptrend Line

(EUR/USD) Wall Street Tanks, Allowing the Euro To Slightly Recover, (EUR/GBP) Goldman Sachs Betting Against GBP, JPY Gets The Better Of The US Dollar And EUR - Good Morning Forex!

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 10.05.2022 11:58
Summary: Euro gained slightly against the USD after the poor performance of the US markets on Monday. Goldman Sachs placing their confidence in the value of the EURO. JPY gains slightly against the EUR and USD on Tuesday. Read next: (EUR/USD) US Dollar Continues To Trump the EUR, (EUR/GBP)(GBP/JPY) Pound Sterling Unlikely To Recover Anytime Soon.  EUR gains some ground against the USD. Markets turned around on Monday with the EUR/USD currency pair with market sentiment showing bullish signals. The Euro is gaining value despite the surging US Dollar, at the end of the trading day on Monday Wall Street has tanked with the Nasdaq down 4.29%. As investors turn away from risky assets such as forex, and move to safer investments such as treasuries, the value of the US Dollar is facing potential pressure. Investors are concerned around the Feds shrinking balance sheet as liquidity dries up. EUR/USD Price Chart Pound Sterling losing value against the Euro. On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs bet the EUR will continue to gain against the GBP, as the market for the EUR/GBP currency pair continues to reflect a bullish sentiment. The European Central Bank (ECB) seems intent on raising interest rates by the summer, showing a more hawkish attitude than the Bank of England (BoE) who believe that inflation will return to normal levels on its own. This BoE attitude is causing investors to lose confidence in the Pound Sterling and causing its value to decrease. EUR/GBP Price Chart JPY receives momentary relief from the USD Although the JPY has gained on the US Dollar on Tuesday, the USD/JPY currency pair is reflecting a bullish market sentiment. The strengthening against the USD comes after the carnage the US markets saw on Monday. Whether or not this strengthening will continue is unlikely as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues their monetary easing in their attempt to boost the economy. USD/JPY Price Chart JPY markets best performer on Monday The EUR is losing ground to the JPY during the trading day on Tuesday, the EUR/JPY currency pair is reflecting a mixed market sentiment. As risk averse investors fled to safety assets given the US markets performance, the Japanese Yen was the forex markets top performer on Monday, which gave it the chance to strengthen against the EUR and the USD. EUR/JPY Price Chart Read next: (EUR/USD) All Eyes On The US Bureau Of Labour Statistics’ Results Due On Friday, (EUR/GBP) Bleak Economic Outlook For the UK Sends GBP Spiralling - Good Morning Forex!  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
GBP/USD Is Struggling, The Aussie Pair Have Good Day And Is Trading Above 0.67$, The EUR/USD Is Trading Above 1.0650

Despite The Year The Stock Market Has Seen, One Asset Has Succeeded: The US Dollar.

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 10.05.2022 14:37
Summary: The US Dollar's resilience in the current economic world. The future of the greenback is unknown.   Read next: (DOGE) Dogecoin and Musk - How Elon Musk Has Single Handedly Created Price Changes In This Memecoin.    Whilst almost all other assets on the stock market have lost value this year, there is one asset that has done well; the US Dollar. Since the start of the year the USD has strengthened continually against most other currencies, this is demonstrated in the graph below, where we see the gradual strengthening of the US Dollar over the past five months. This year in the stock markets has been challenging, with the conflict between Russia and the Ukraine, the adverse weather conditions all over the world, the lockdowns in China as the Chinese government works toward the zero-Covid goal, the rising inflation and prices, the concerns over a looming recession and more. Despite these factors, the US Dollar has still seen strength, this indicates the confidence that market participants have in the US economy to overcome these challenges. Where the currency will go in the future is uncertain, the volatility of the forex market is always keeping investors on their toes. The next big possible turning point is the U.S CPI report due on Wednesday, this will indicate whether the hawkish fed have been successful in their fight against rising prices and inflation. EUR/USD Price Chart   Read next: Shell (SHEL) Stock Price Soars Along With The Rest Of The Industry.    Sources: finance.yahoo.com
The Swing Overview - Week 19 2022

The Swing Overview - Week 19 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 16.05.2022 10:59
The Swing Overview - Week 19 Stock indices continued to weaken strongly last week, while the US dollar has already surpassed the mark 104 and is at 20-year highs. However, a set of important data is behind us, which could bring some temporary relief to the equity markets. The Czech koruna weakened sharply after the appointment of the new CNB Governor Ales Michl, who is a proponent of a dovish approach. Thus, the rise in interest rates in the Czech Republic appears to be close to its peak.   Macroeconomic data The US consumer inflation for April was reported on Wednesday, which came in at 8.3% on year-on-year basis. Analysts were expecting inflation to be 8.1%. Although the figure achieved was higher than expectations, it was still lower than the 8.5% inflation figure achieved in March. On a month-on-month basis, the price increase in April was 0.3%, significantly lower than in March when prices rose by 1.5%.   On Thursday, industrial inflation was reported at 8.8% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month for April.   The positive thing about this data is that inflation declined from previous readings. However, it is important to note that the year-on-year comparison is based on data where inflation was also higher in the previous year due to the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic.   The Fed chief reiterated that he expects another 0.50% point rise in interest rates at the next two Fed meetings. He also mentioned that a higher rate hike cannot be ruled out if necessary.   The US 10-year bond yields came down from their peak and made a slight correction. However, the US dollar continued to strengthen and broke the resistance at 104. The dollar is thus at 20-year highs. Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields and USD index on the daily chart   Equity indices heavily oversold The strong dollar, rising US bond yields, the war in Ukraine and the effects of the lockdown in China were the main reasons for the decline in equity indices. The SP 500 index hit 3,860, the lowest level since March 2021. This is also where long-term support is. However, the important macro data is behind us and the market has processed all the available fundamental information. This could bring temporary relief to the markets and the index could make an upward correction. The fall in 10-year bond yields, gives this move some boost as well.   Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart However, from a technical analysis perspective, the US SP 500 index remains in a current downtrend as the markets have formed lower low and is also below both the SMA 100 and EMA 50 moving averages on the H4 and daily charts. The nearest resistance is 4040 - 4070. The next resistance is at 4,140 and especially 4,293 - 4,300. The support is at 3,860 - 3,900.   German DAX index In macroeconomic data, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment for May was reported last week and showed a reading of -34.3, an improvement from the previous month's reading of -41.0. Inflation in Germany for April is at 7.4% on year-on-year basis and up 0.8% from March (the previous month's increase was 2.5%). Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The index continues to move in a downtrend along with the major world indices. The price has reached the SMA 100 moving average on the H4 chart, which tends to signal resistance in a downtrend. The price is moving below the SMA 100 on both the daily chart and the H4 chart, confirming the bearish sentiment. The nearest support according to the H4 is 13,600 - 13,650. The resistance is 14,300 - 14,330. The next resistance is 14,592 - 14,632.   The big sell-off in the euro continues The euro fell to 1.0356 against the dollar, the lowest value since January 2017. This value is also an area of significant support where price could stall. Fundamentally, the euro's depreciation is due to the strong dollar and the Fed's hawkish policy, which contrasts with the ECB's policy of not raising rates yet.    Figure 4: The EURUSD on H4 and daily chart Eurozone inflation data will be reported next week, which could be an important catalyst for further movement. The significant support is priced around 1.0350 - 1.040. The current resistance is at 1.05.   Czech koruna weakened strongly on the new governor appointment The President Miloš Zeman surprised with the appointment of Ales Michl for the governor of the CNB. Michl is known for his dovish views, having spoken out against raising interest rates at recent meetings. His appointment was welcomed in the markets by a strong depreciation of the Czech koruna. However, the bank later intervened in the markets by selling part of its foreign exchange reserves to prevent further depreciation of the Czech koruna.   It is important to know that the Bank's monetary policy is decided by the seven-member Bank Board. So far, the proportion for voting on rate hikes has been 5:2. But by the end of June, the president must appoint 3 new board members. This could significantly change the voting ratio on the board and set a new course for the bank's policy, which would mean a halt to the rise in interest rates. However, it is likely that at the June board meeting the board, still with the old composition, will decide on further interest rate increases. Figure 5: The USD/CZK and the EUR/CZK on the daily chart The Czech koruna has reached 24.36 against the dollar and 25.47 against the euro, from which it started to descend after the CNB interventions.  
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) Has Shown That It Is Not Shy About Intervening In The Currency Markets

US Dollar Is Likely To Experience Volatility In The Coming Weeks (EUR/USD), UK Retail Data Exceeds Market Expectations (EUR/GBP), SNB Turns Hawkish Causing the CHF To Rally (EUR/CHF) - Good Morning Forex!

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 20.05.2022 15:22
Summary: Euro showing upside potential. UK economic data exceeds market expectations. SNB turns hawkish, which acts in favour of the CHF. Investors turning to JPY in times of market uncertainty. Read next: (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP) Market Participants Betting On A More Hawkish ECB, A Dovish BoJ Weighs On The Safe-Haven Currency (USD/JPY) - Good Morning Forex!  The US Dollar is likely to experience volatility during the next trading week. Market sentiment for this major currency pair is reflecting a bullish market sentiment. The next trading week is full of economic data releases which are likely to impact the US Dollar, on Thursday the Fed’s preferred inflation reading PCE will give the market an indication of the growing pressures in the U.S. The Euro is also showing upside potential as investors expect the European Central Bank (ECB) will tighten their monetary policy during the summer. EUR/USD Price Chart UK retail data exceeds market expectations. Market sentiment for this currency pair is showing mixed signals. The GBP saw a positive market turn around on Friday after a positive market turnaround. UK sales volume data raised by 1.4% in April following a fall of 1.2% during March. The data release exceeded the market expectation of -0.2%. The data shows that UK households are showing resilience in the current economic environment. EUR/GBP Price Chart CHF rallies on Friday Market sentiment is showing bearish signals for this currency pair. On Thursday the Swiss Franc began to rally after the president of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) announced that they are ready to act on the rising inflation which is currently at 2.5%. EUR/CHF Price Chart GBP/JPY currency pair Market sentiment is showing bearish signals for this currency pair. This currency pair is sensitive to risk appetite, as investors begin to turn away from risky investments, the JPY tends to strengthen due to its safe-haven asset. GBP/JPY Price Chart Read next:Major Index NASDAQ (IXIC) Sell Off After Equities Fall, Will the ECB Turn Hawkish?  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Investors' Concerns About The Coming Recession In The UK, Will GBP/USD Pair Reach Its Lowest Level In History?

ECB Offering The Euro Support (EUR/USD), Strengthening Of The Renminbi Supporting The EUR and GBP, SNB Turns Hawkish (EUR/CHF) - Good Morning Forex!

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 23.05.2022 10:29
Summary: ECB offering support to the EUR, whilst easing lockdowns in China aids in the weakening US Dollar. Euro and GBP are likely to strengthen with the Renminbi. SNB and ECB hawkishness offers support to their respective currencies. GBP/CAD Read next: US Dollar Is Likely To Experience Volatility In The Coming Weeks (EUR/USD), UK Retail Data Exceeds Market Expectations (EUR/GBP), SNB Turns Hawkish Causing the CHF To Rally (EUR/CHF) - Good Morning Forex!  Easing lockdowns in China dragging down the US Dollar Market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting bullish signals. On Monday the European Central Bank (ECB) announced that it is likely that July would be the starting period for raising interest rates. At the same time, the easing of lockdowns in China has aided in weakening the US Dollar. The trading week is full of US events along with some European Central Bank events, all of which will be watched closely. EUR/USD Price Chart Euro and GBP both showing signs of strengthening Market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting mixed signals. The prospect of the Chinese Renminbi rebounding is likely to have a positive impact on the value of both the Pound Sterling and the Euro. In addition the market believes that the Bank of England (BoE) is likely to continue raising interest rates in the coming months along with the increased likelihood of the European Central Bank (ECB) raising the interest rates. EUR/GBP Price Chart SNB and ECB hawkishness caused mixed sentiment for this currency pair. On Thursday last week the president of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) said that they were ready to act on the rising inflation, the hawkishness of the SNB caused the Swiss Franc to rally. The potential hawkishness of the European Central Bank (ECB) is also causing the Euro to strengthen, leaving the market sentiment for this currency pair showing mixed signals. EUR/CHF Price Chart GBP rallies against the CAD The strengthening of the GBP against the CAD throughout last week has come in the wake of increasing UK government bond yields. The strengthening came in the wake of the release of UK employment data, inflation and retail data all which support further increases in the UK government bond yields. GBP/CAD Price Chart Read next: (FTSE) FTSE 100 Rallies In Response To Positive Economic Data, US Dollar Expected To See More Volatility  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
The Euro Will Strengthen, But Questions Remain About What To Do Next

Hawkish ECB Bodes Well For The Euro, UK PMI Data Disappoints (EUR/GBP), Hawkish SNB Offers Swiss Franc Still Support (USD/CHF), AUD/JPY - Good Morning Forex!

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 24.05.2022 13:23
Summary: The ECB turning hawkish is causing the Euro to strengthen. Disappointing PMI data caused the GBP to weaken. Hawkish SNB offers CHF support. Read next: ECB Offering The Euro Support (EUR/USD), Strengthening Of The Renminbi Supporting The EUR and GBP, SNB Turns Hawkish (EUR/CHF) - Good Morning Forex!  Euro trumps US Dollar Market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting bullish signals, which means investors are confident in the Euro. The strengthening of the Euro comes after the European Central Bank’s (ECB) President Christine Lagarde confirmed market expectations that the ECB would raise interest rates in July. The hawkish sentiment of the ECB has instilled investor confidence in the Euro, despite the continuing hawkish Fed, investors are still turning to the Euro due to concerns around the US economy falling into a recession. EUR/USD Price Chart Pound Sterling Weakens after PMI data release The Release of PMI data showed that the UK economy was close to contracting in May, the results came in well below expectations, a figure that is out of the ordinary. The Pound Sterling weakened based on this news and JP Morgan has flagged the UK economy as the “poster child” for stagflation. The market sentiment for the EUR/GBP currency pair is reflecting bullish signals. EUR/GBP Price Chart Swiss Franc continues to trump US Dollar Market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting a bearish sentiment. Late last week and this week the Swiss Franc began strengthening against the US Dollar, this comes in the wake of both the concerns around the slowing US economy and in conjunction the hawkish attitude from the Swiss National Bank (SNB). USD/CHF Price Chart AUD/JPY currency pair Market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting bullish signals. This currency pair has experienced a lot of volatility over the past week. In addition there is a temporary pause in the growth of the JPY as investors are starting to be less weary about taking on some risk. AUD/JPY Price Chart Read next: (DJIA) Dow Jones Index Rising, Investors Confidence In The Euro Is Looking Bullish As ECB Confirm Interest Rate Increases  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
FX Daily: Reports of sterling’s demise are exaggerated

EUR Falls To US Dollar (EUR/USD), Pound Sterling Due To Weaken As UK Recession Looms (EUR/GBP), Market Awaits Fed Meeting Minutes (USD/CHF, GBP/USD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 25.05.2022 18:27
Summary: EU PPI inflation data caused the Euro to weaken on Wednesday. Investor sentiment looks poor towards the GBP going into summer. Pound Sterling recovers against the US Dollar. Read next: Hawkish ECB Bodes Well For The Euro, UK PMI Data Disappoints (EUR/GBP), Hawkish SNB Offers Swiss Franc Still Support (USD/CHF), AUD/JPY - Good Morning Forex!  A rise in PPI inflation data causes Euro weaken Market sentiment is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. Looking at the value of the Euro in terms of PPI and CPI data: the rise in PPI inflation in the euro area reduced the Euros fair value estimate, whereas the European CPI inflation data remains close to that of the US CPI inflation. Therefore, it is the release of PPI inflation data that has caused the Euro to lose more than 0.6% to the US Dollar on Wednesday. EUR/USD Price Chart GBP weakens as concerns of a recession looms The market is reflecting mixed market sentiment for this currency pair. Investors expect the Pound Sterling to have a tough summer period. The slowing UK economy and disappointing PMI data are both aspects that will likely cause the GBP to weaken not only against the Euro but against other currencies too. The market is defaulting to buying Euros and selling Great British Pounds in the wake of changing European Central Bank (ECB) policy. EUR/GBP Price Chart Swiss Franc The market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting mixed market signals. During the trading week last week, the US Dollar weakened against the Swiss Franc due to the hawkish attitude shown by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and investors desire for safe-haven assets. This sentiment has continued into the current trading week. USD/CHF Price Chart GBP recovers against the USD The GBP strengthened against the US Dollar on Wednesday as the market awaited the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes. Investors are eager to see how aggressively the Fed will raise interest rates going forward in an attempt to tackle rising inflation. Investor sentiment is negative toward the US Dollar at the moment, which has given some currencies, such as the GBP, an opportunity to recover. The market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting bullish signals. GBP/USD Price Chart Read next: ECB Offering The Euro Support (EUR/USD), Strengthening Of The Renminbi Supporting The EUR and GBP, SNB Turns Hawkish (EUR/CHF) - Good Morning Forex!  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
The EUR/USD Cross-Currency Pair Rises For The Fourth Consecutive Day

FOMC Meeting Minutes Offer Support To The US Dollar (EUR/USD), Improved Market Attitude Favoured The GBP On Thursday (EUR/GBP, GBP/USD), Market Awaits RBA Monetary Policy - Good Morning Forex!

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 26.05.2022 11:58
Summary: Investor confidence in both the Euro and US Dollar causing mixed sentiment for the EUR/USD currency pair. GBP beats Euro and USD despite poor PMI data released on Tuesday. RBA June policy meeting will determine the AUD strength Read next: Hawkish ECB Bodes Well For The Euro, UK PMI Data Disappoints (EUR/GBP), Hawkish SNB Offers Swiss Franc Still Support (USD/CHF), AUD/JPY - Good Morning Forex!  Mixed sentiment for the EUR/USD The market is reflecting mixed market signals for this major currency pair. In the Wake of the FOMC meeting minutes, the US Dollar has found some stability. The market can expect a 50bp interest rate hike at the next two Fed meetings, with a possible pause in the hikes later on in the year. The Euro is also on an upward streak with the strong possibility of the European Central Bank (ECB) tightening monetary policy in July. EUR/USD Price Chart GBP strengthens The market is reflecting bearish market sentiment for this currency pair. On Thursday the GBP recovered some of its losses against the Euro after the UK PMI report on Tuesday. Improved market attitude acted in favour of the Pound Sterling against the Euro on Thursday. However, the outlook for the GBP still looks challenging going forward with an overly cautious Bank of England, high-inflation and global risk aversion. EUR/GBP Price Chart GBP/USD reflecting bullish sentiment Market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting bullish signals. On Thursday the GBP recovered some of its losses against the US Dollar. Improved market attitude acted in favour of the Pound Sterling against the US Dollar on Thursday. GBP/USD Price Chart Future of the AUD waits the RBA monetary policy decision The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) June policy meeting will likely see a future hike in interest rates. If the RBA tightens their monetary policy the Australian Dollar could strengthen. If the RBA chooses a dovish approach, the Aussie Dollar could struggle. AUD/USD Price Chart Read next: EUR Falls To US Dollar (EUR/USD), Pound Sterling Due To Weaken As UK Recession Looms (EUR/GBP), Market Awaits Fed Meeting Minutes (USD/CHF, GBP/USD)  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundtserlinglive.com
This week starts with news about China and COVID and will go on with Eurozone inflation data and other crucial events

Market Expectations For ECB To Hike Interest Rates Grow (EUR/USD), Sunak’s Move To Stimulate The UK Economy Offers GBP Support(EUR/GBP), Weaker USD boosts AUD (AUD/USD), USD/JPY)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 27.05.2022 15:51
Summary: Euro strengthening against the USD as market expectations for rising interest rates grow. GBP strengthened on Friday. Too soon to assume bearish USD sentiment. Read next: FTSE 100 Index Rises Thanks To Shell and BP Stocks, British Pound (GBP) Weakens After Thursday Morning Strengthen  ECB interest rate expectations offer EUR support The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The Euro has been strengthening recently due to growing expectations of the European Central Bank rising the interest rates. The market is now anticipating a 100bp hike in the rates starting in July. At this point in time it is difficult to assume that the US Dollar will remain weak. The market has seen expectations of Fed interest rate hikes decrease, however, the increasing inflation seems to be keeping the Fed on track whilst tensions in China and between Russia and the Ukraine continue. EUR/USD Price Chart Sunak’s giveaway offers support to GBP The market is reflecting mixed market sentiment for this currency pair. On Thursday Rishi Sunak announced that the UK government would be giving GBP15 billion to UK households in an attempt to boost consumer attitudes. On Friday the Pound Sterling strengthened against the euro as the move offered GBP support, in addition UK consumers are instilled with more confidence in spending. In addition, the windfall tax that was implemented against oil companies has also offered GBP support. EUR/GBP Price Chart AUD is boosted by weaker USD Market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting bullish signals. Investor confidence in the Australian Dollar comes from a combination of a recovery in risk assets and weaker US Dollar in the wake of a Fed member hinting that there could be a pause in tightening monetary policy in September. AUD/USD Price Chart JPY underperforms The market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting bullish signals. Both the US Dollar and Japanese Yen were market underperformers during the Asian session. The US Dollar is, however, outperforming the Yen. USD/JPY Price Chart Read next: FOMC Meeting Minutes Offer Support To The US Dollar (EUR/USD), Improved Market Attitude Favoured The GBP On Thursday (EUR/GBP, GBP/USD), Market Awaits RBA Monetary Policy  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
We May Say That RBA's 50bp Move Is Highly Expected

Strong Investor Sentiment Toward The Euro Continues (EUR/USD), EUR/GBP Currency Pair, As China Ease Lockdowns The AUD Outlook Seems Positive (GBP/AUD, AUD/USD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 30.05.2022 16:37
Summary: Expectations for the ECB to raise interest rates grow. GBP doing well in the wake of HM Treasury’s Thursday announcement of the stimulus package. As China eases lockdowns, the AUD strengthens. Read next (COST) (Retail Stores) Costco Stock Beats Market Expectations  Euro still gaining on the US Dollar Market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting bullish signals. The current combination of a strong Euro and a weak US Dollar is giving room for the Euro to bounce back to a level almost equal to that of 5 weeks ago. The market expectations for the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise interest rates have been growing over the past few weeks, whilst the expectations for the US Dollar have weakened as market price out some of the Feds hawkish decisions. EUR/USD Price Chart Market sentiment toward the Pound Sterling remains strong Market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting bearish signals. On Tuesday, Eurostat is expected to release their estimate for May inflation, which could have an impact on the Euro. The move made late last week by HM treasury to implement a stimulus package to struggling households has the markets favouring the Pound Sterling over the EURO. EUR/GBP Price Chart Australian Dollar benefitting from the opening Chinese economy The Australian Dollar is performing well against the Pound Sterling amidst China continuing with the phased re-opening of the economy in the wake of its most recent Covid-19 lockdowns. It is well known that what is good for the Chinese economy is normally good for the Australian Dollar. If the global economic outlook continues to improve (especially in China), the AUD could outperform. GBP/AUD Price Chart AUD/USD reflecting mixed market signals The market is reflecting mixed market sentiment signals. The Australian Dollar is strengthening as the Chinese economy outlook seems positive in conjunction with the weakening US Dollar, giving the AUD a chance to strengthen against the USD. AUD/USD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com
Economic Calendar For July 21st. EUR/USD And GBP/USD - Trading Ideas

EuroZone Inflation Exceeds Market Expectations (EUR/USD) (EUR/GBP), New Zealand Economy Will Benefit From China’s Lockdown Easing (GBP/NZD), GBP Bullish (GBP/USD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 31.05.2022 14:39
Summary: Euro Zone inflation rose to 8.1% in May. Both the BoE and the ECB are expected to tighten monetary policy. The easing of lockdowns will benefit not only China’s economy but economies that rely on China for trading. The GBP may continue its strengthening streak against the USD going into the third quarter of this year. Read next:Strong Investor Sentiment Toward The Euro Continues (EUR/USD), EUR/GBP Currency Pair, As China Ease Lockdowns The AUD Outlook Seems Positive (GBP/AUD, AUD/USD)  EUR/USD maintains bullish sentiment Market sentiment is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. Euro Zone inflation rose to 8.1% in May, this rate is around 0.4% higher than expectations, which reaffirms the European Central Banks (ECBs) case for tightening monetary policy in quarter 3. The risk of slower growth is a reality, which may favour the US Dollar going forward. Whether the current strength in the Euro against the USD is going to continue may depend on which economy slows faster, the ECBs interest rate hike and the war in the Ukraine. EUR/USD Price Chart EUR/GBP reflecting mixed market sentiment The market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting mixed signals. There have been concerns about the UK economic outlook which have grown in response to rising inflation, which can be mainly attributed to rising energy prices. The Bank of England (BoE) is still expected to continue raising interest rates. In addition, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to tighten monetary policy which is instilling confidence in the Euro. EUR/GBP Price Chart NZD to benefit from China's strengthening economy The NZD benefitted of Monday in the wake of China’s easing of COVID-19 lockdowns, strengthening against the Pound Sterling. The easing of lockdowns will benefit not only China’s economy but economies that rely on China for trading, New Zealand's economy is one of those who will benefit. GBP/NZD Price Chart US Dollar taking hits on the forex markets The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. Seasonal factors may be able to aid the GBP continue to strengthen against the US Dollar. The recent macroeconomic data that has been released has been underwhelming for the market and therefore the US Dollar has taken a hit, in addition the market expectations of the Fed to slow or stop tightening monetary policy is also affecting the US Dollar negatively. The GBP may continue its strengthening streak against the USD going into the third quarter of this year. GBP/NZD Price Chart Read next: S&P 500 Sees Good Start To The Week, UK Economy Not Performing As Well As Its Major Economy Counter Parts  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
The Euro Opened Strong On Wednesday Against The US Dollar (EUR/USD), Euro Could Continue Gaining On The GBP (EUR/GBP), Australia’s Trade Balance Beats Market Expectations (AUD/USD), EUR/JPY

The Euro Opened Strong On Wednesday Against The US Dollar (EUR/USD), Euro Could Continue Gaining On The GBP (EUR/GBP), Australia’s Trade Balance Beats Market Expectations (AUD/USD), EUR/JPY

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 02.06.2022 18:31
Summary: The euro opened strong on Wednesday in the wake of U.S treasury yields surging. Inflation for the eurozone hit record levels in April. The Australian Dollar has been unmoved by an outstanding trade balance that beat market expectations. EUR/JPY Read next: EuroZone Inflation Exceeds Market Expectations (EUR/USD) (EUR/GBP), New Zealand Economy Will Benefit From China’s Lockdown Easing (GBP/NZD), GBP Bullish (GBP/USD)  Euro and US Dollar The market is reflecting mixed market signals for this currency pair. The euro opened strong on Wednesday in the wake of U.S treasury yields surging. The U.S economic data that has been released this week has been strong, which has given the market confidence around the hiking cycle. This sentiment comes in contrast to last week's sentiment of an overconfident Federal Reserve. The eurozone is under pressure in the wake of the Russian oil embargo with the possibility of Russia retaliating by potentially cutting off gas from the region, which may aggravate an already bad inflation situation and risk downside potential for the euro. EUR/USD Price Chart Eurozone inflation hit record highs The market is reflecting mixed market signals for this currency pair. Inflation for the eurozone hit record levels in April, this means that it may be more likely that the European Central Bank (ECB) may implement a 50 basis point rate hike before the year-end. If this were to go through, it could underscore the Euro’s already steady rebound against the US Dollar and the Pound Sterling. EUR/GBP Price Chart Australian Dollar benefitting from a trade balance that beat expectations The market is reflecting bullish market signals for this currency pair. The Australian Dollar has been unmoved by an outstanding trade balance that beat market expectations. In addition, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) published their commodity price index (CPI) that accounts for the composition of Australian commodity exports yesterday. AUD/USD Price Chart The Japanese Yen weakened The market is reflecting mixed market signals for this currency pair. The Japanese data revealed a jobless rate that exceeded market expectations, but retail sales stayed at 0.8% for April. The mood was then turned bad with a miss in industrial production. It was anticipated at -0.2% but came in at -1.3% for the month of April. The Japanese Yen weakened on this news as well as the higher oil price taking its toll on the energy importing economy. EUR/JPY Price Chart   Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
The Japanese Yen Has The Worst Performer Among The G-10 Currencies

Saudi Arabia Indicates Plans To Increase Their Oil Output (EUR/USD), ECB Plans To Start Tightening Monetary Policy Still Set For July (EUR/GBP), (USD/JPY, USD/CHF)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 03.06.2022 13:37
Summary: OPECs plans to increase their oil output favours the Euro. ECBs window for tightening monetary policy seems to be narrowing. The market is reflecting mixed sentiment for the USD/CHF currency pair. Read next: The Euro Opened Strong On Wednesday Against The US Dollar (EUR/USD), Euro Could Continue Gaining On The GBP (EUR/GBP), Australia’s Trade Balance Beats Market Expectations (AUD/USD),   German PMI declined for the 3rd month in a row The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The US Dollar weakened overnight in the wake of data that showed US payroll rose less than expected in May. The European Union finalised the ban on Russian seaborne oil, with the hope of reaching a 90% decline in imports by the end of 2022. Oil prices rose in the wake of this news, however OPEC indicated its plans to compensate their western allies for the oil lost through the embargo. In addition, the German PMI fell for the third consecutive month. EUR/USD Price Chart Post-lockdown growth is slowing in even the largest EU economy. The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. With German PMI declining for the third consecutive month, rising stagflation and a pessimistic economic outlook within the European Union. Hence, the European Central Banks (ECB) window for tightening monetary policy seems to be narrowing. Originally plans for increasing rates were to begin in the third quarter of this year, however, given the current circumstances, it could be justified to start earlier than originally planned. Although it may be justified, it is unlikely given the ECB president has tried to set out the EU monetary policy plan from the start, despite increased pressure. EUR/GBP Price Chart USD/CHF Reflecting mixed signals The market is reflecting mixed sentiment for this currency pair. The expectation for the month of June for this currency pair is bearish, the US Dollar may be weakening, however, this forecast is based on the trends of the past. With the Swiss National Bank (SNB) expected to turn hawkish and the fears of the US economy heading into a recession, perhaps the reality will be different from the forecast. USD/CHF Price Chart USD/JPY Pair As the US Dollar weakens, investors are turning to the Japanese Yen safe-haven asset. The market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting bearish signals. USD/JPY Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com
Forex Wakes You Up! (USD) US Dollar Index Is Not Far From 110.00! EUR/USD Is Expected To Be Hovering Between 0.99-1.01

Euro Enters The Week Strong As The Market Awaits ECB Announcements Due Later This Week (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/CHF), Focus On The RBA Announcement On Tuesday (GBP/AUD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 06.06.2022 15:22
Summary: ECB interest rate decision due to occur later this week. Confidence vote being held for Boris Johnsson later on Monday. Investor confidence could be returning to the markets. On Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australian (RBA) is due to announce its decision regarding tightening of monetary policy. Read next: Altcoins: Decentraland (MANA), What Is It? A Deeper Look Into The Decentraland Platform  EUR strong entering the week On Monday market sentiment for this currency pair turned bearish. The Euro opened stronger on Monday as the market awaits the European Central Banks (ECB) interest rate decision, which is due to occur later this week. If the European Central Bank shows any signs of dovish intentions, the effects could be heavy on the Euro's downside, however, if a hawkish attitude is shown (which seems to be more likely), the upside effect on the euro may be minimal as the expected hike is already priced into the market. U.S CPI data is expected to close off this week, if there is another undershoot regarding the CPI data, it will just confirm that inflation has reached its peak and add to dovish pressure. EUR/USD Price Chart Both Euro and Pound sterling entered the week strong The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. As the market awaits the European Central Bank's (ECB) announcement regarding the decision for interest rates in July and September, the Euro entered the week strong. In addition, the pound sterling also entered the week strong despite a confidence vote being held this evening to determine Prime Minister Boris Johnssons future as leader. The pound sterling holding strength, shows its resilience to political tensions. EUR/GBP Price Chart EUR/CHF bullish The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. Amidst the expected announcements from the European Central Bank this week, the Euro has entered the week strong, even against the safe-haven Swiss Franc. During times of economic stress, investors normally turn to safe-haven assets, however investor confidence seems to be returning to the markets. EUR/CHF Price Chart RBA due to make an announcement The Australian Dollar entered its third week of gains this week in the wake of China’s easing of Covid-19 lockdowns and stronger than expected GDP data. However, on Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australian (RBA) is due to announce its decision regarding tightening of monetary policy. The price of the GBP/AUD currency pair is sensitive to the price changes of the GBP/USD currency pair. GBP/AUD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) Has Shown That It Is Not Shy About Intervening In The Currency Markets

ECB Interest Rate Announcement Due Tomorrow Offers Euro Support (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP), JPY Facing Negative Outlook (USD/JPY), Potential For A Hawkish SNB Offers CHF Support (USD/CHF)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 08.06.2022 16:22
Summary: Markets are becoming more optimistic around hopes of a more hawkish European Central Bank (ECB). Firmer oil prices adding to downward pressure on JPY. Strong market expectations of a more hawkish Swiss National Bank (SNB). Read next: DOW 30 Turbulent In The Wake Of Targets (TGT) Profit Warning, Japanese Yen Suffering From BoJ Monetary Easing  Euro holds steady The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. The markets are becoming more optimistic around hopes of a more hawkish European Central Bank (ECB) tomorrow after adding a couple more basis points to the yearly forecasts. There has been talk of a 50bps hike in July and rumors of a possible hike on Thursday, it is likely that the market could see a change in ECB tone which has allowed the Euro to remain resilient against the US Dollar. On Wednesday, the market opened with strong economic Q1 data for the eurozone. The euro did not react instantly to the release of this data, likely due to its delay. EUR/USD Price Chart Anticipation of ECBs announcement offers Euro support The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. The Euro has gained against the pound sterling ahead of the market awaiting the European Central Banks (ECB) interest rate announcement, which is due tomorrow. Earlier in the trading week the pound sterling rallied in response to the news of Boris Johnssons vote of no confidence. If the ECB announces an interest rate hike in July, the pound sterling currency could be under pressure against the Euro. EUR/GBP Price Chart Negative outlook for Japanese Yen is likely to continue The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. In addition to the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continuing its monetary easing, firmer oil prices have added to the downward pressure on the Japanese Yen and both of these factors will continue to add to the negative outlook for the safe-haven currency. USD/JPY Price Chart CHF holding its position in the market The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The Swiss Franc has recovered against the US Dollar in comparison to the lows experienced in mid-May when the US Dollar was at its strongest, the recovery comes in the wake of market expectations of a more hawkish Swiss National Bank (SNB). the expectations come from indications from policy makers that the SNB will increase its interest rates for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis. USD/CHF Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
The EUR/USD Cross-Currency Pair Rises For The Fourth Consecutive Day

The Market Has Strong Expectations Of An Even More Hawkish Fed (EUR/USD, USD/CHF), Pound Sterling Tumbled Amidst Investor Sell-off Sentiment (EUR/GBP, GBP/USD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 14.06.2022 12:19
Summary US Dollar supported by prospects of a hawkish Fed. The Pound sterling remains vulnerable to further losses against the Euro. Read next: US CPI Inflation Acceleration Likely To See Hawkish Fed Retaliation (EUR/USD), On Thursday The Market Expects The BoE Monetary Policy Decision (EUR/GBP)  Expectations of a hawkish Fed is driving the dollar up. The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. As expectations for the Federal Reserve to continue on its hawkish path, and raise interest rates even higher at the next FOMC heighten, the US Dollar is strengthening. A hawkish move from the Fed will likely drive the US Dollar higher as it will gain a yield advantage over its G10 peers. Uncertainty around driving the US economy into a recession also brings about the appeal for the US Dollars liquidity. EUR/USD Price Chart Pound Sterling tumbles in the wake of investor sell-off sentiment The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The Pound sterling remains vulnerable to further losses against the Euro following the losses experienced in the last 24 hours which was driven by the strong risk-off sentiment that has been seen by the global markets, which is also linked to the strong expectations for larger interest rate hikes at the US Federal Reserve. EUR/GBP Price Chart US Dollar/Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Bullish The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. With expectations for the US Federal Reserve to further tighten monetary policy, the US Dollar is strengthening against most of its counterparts, including the Swiss Franc. USD/CHF Price Chart UK employment data released UK jobs data was released early on Tuesday, which reflected an employment change for March beating estimates whilst the employment statistic missed expectations. The initial reaction to this data saw the pound sterling weaken against the US Dollar as the ease in the labor market could be a signal towards the start of an economic shift. GBP/USD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
The EUR/USD Cross-Currency Pair Rises For The Fourth Consecutive Day

ECB’s Christine Lagarde Eased Fears (EUR/USD, EUR/CHF), Expectations Of A More Hawkish BoE Strengthen (EUR/GBP, GBP/USD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 21.06.2022 15:46
Summary: President Joe Biden announced he is considering a gas tax holiday. Markets expect a more hawkish BoE, thus offering the pound sterling support. CHF is supported by the SNB's hawkish attitude. Read next: BoE’s Dr Catherine L Mann Speaks  EUR/USD currency pair The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. US President Joe Biden has announced that he may be considering imposing a gas tax holiday in an attempt to ease inflationary pressure on the US consumer. This looser fiscal policy move could help the Monetary policy tightening moves by the Federal Reserve by adding more flexibility and optionality in its fight against inflation. Theoretically speaking, looser fiscal policy encourages more foreign investment, and thus a higher US Dollar demand. This mixed with a hawkish Federal Reserve could give an extra boost to the US Dollar if the tax cut is approved. During her speech yesterday, European Central Bank (ECB) president Christine Lagarde managed to ease fears via her statement around the ECB’s proactive fight against fragmentation, thereby offering the Euro support. EUR/USD Price Chart BoE expected to accelerate their interest rate hiking path The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank say they expect the Bank of England (BoE) to accelerate the rate in which they will raise interest rates. The BoE indicated they would be more inclined to take a more stern stance on inflation, even at the expense of growth. Therefore, giving the markets expectation of a more hawkish BoE, and offering the pound sterling support. EUR/GBP Price Chart SNB’s move to raise interest rates offers CHF support The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. Despite European Central Bank’s (ECB) Christine Lagarde easing fears around fragmentation, the Swiss Franc is still showing strength against the Euro. Last week the Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprised the markets with a 50 basis point rate hike in its interest rates, which offered the safe-haven currency support. The Swiss Franc was the best performing currency last week. EUR/CHF Price Chart Looming recessions and slowing economies The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The pound sterling was edging higher during early trading on Tuesday despite negatives hanging over the GBP. On Wednesday, the UK is expected to release headline inflation data, which is expected to come in at 9.1%, which may even come in higher. In addition, the fears of a slowing UK economy and a global recession are only 2 of the factors that are weighing on this currency pair and on many other foreign exchange pairs. GBP/USD Price Chart Sources: dailyfx.com, finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Loonie (USD/CAD) Bulls Are Supported By A Hawkish Commentary From The Bank Of Canada

Fears Of Recession Loom (EUR/USD), UK CPI Inflation Data 9.1% For May (EUR/GBP), Surprisingly Strong Canadian Inflation Data (USD/CAD), EUR/JPY

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 22.06.2022 16:27
Summary: UK CPI inflation data came in at 9.1% for May. BoJ remaining dovish. Fears of a recession loom. Read next: ECB’s Christine Lagarde Eased Fears (EUR/USD, EUR/CHF), Expectations Of A More Hawkish BoE Strengthen (EUR/GBP, GBP/USD)  ECB could benefit from QEQT combination The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The Euro currency could benefit if the European Central Bank (ECB) uses the European continent's fragmented economic landscape to its advantage by combining both quantitative easing (QE) and quantitative tightening (QT) to normalise monetary policy by minimising upset. The Euro has been recovering against the US Dollar this week. Concerns over a recession in the US have grown as the Fed continue on their hawkish path of fighting inflation. EUR/USD Price Chart UK CPI inflation data met market expectations The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. The pound sterling weakened against the Euro in the direct wake of the release of UK inflation data which mostly came in as expected, however, some parts of the report came in softer than was expected and could prove supportive of the British pound currency. UK CPI inflation data came in year-on-year in May at 9.1% which beat April's 9.0% and was in-line with the market expectations. EUR/GBP Price Chart USD/CAD The market is slowing mixed market signals for this currency pair. Canadian inflation data came in surprisingly strong for the month of May, which could likely drive investor expectations of a more hawkish Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate hiking policies going forward, thus likely supporting the Canadian Dollar. USD/CAD Price Chart BoJ Continues to opt out of monetary policy tightening The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. As the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues their monetary easing and chooses to stay away from tightening monetary policy, the Euro and other currencies seem to be gaining on the safe-haven asset. EUR/JPY Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com

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