Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell

Analyzing Thursday's trades: GBP/USD on 30M chart     On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair fell to the lower band of the sideways channel, and this time the pair seems set to break through it. The pound sterling has already consolidated below the 1.2620 level, but it is still relatively weak. Nevertheless, the fact that even after the pair rebounded from this level on Wednesday, it did not aim for the upper band of the channel but returned to the lower one, indicates a possibility of bringing back the downtrend and an exit from the consolidation phase. There were two reports that could influence the pair's movement. Neither was good enough to propel the dollar by 100 points. This is another factor suggesting a potential revival of the downward movement. This is what we're counting on. We certainly don't expect the pound sterling to surge anytime soon. But who knows what Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will reveal to the market on Friday...   GBP/USD on 5M chart Several trading signals were formed on the 5-minute chart. Midway through the European trading session, the pair settled below the 1.2688 level, which should have been taken as a signal for a short position. Subsequently, the price rebounded from this level, surpassed the 1.2653 mark, bounced off it from the bottom, and descended to the 1.2605-1.2620 area. The price did not form a buy signal at midnight, the short positions should have been closed manually. The profit stood at about 60 pips, which is an excellent result. But Thursday's movement was quite commendable.   Trading tips on Friday: On the 30-minute chart, the GBP/USD pair continues to tread within a sideways channel. We're still leaning towards a further decline in the British pound, believing it's currently overbought and unjustifiably pricey. However, the price hasn't left the consolidation phase yet, so there might be a new rebound from the 1.2620 level, which can push the pair's growth. The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.2457, 1.2499, 1.2538, 1.2605-1.2620, 1.2653, 1.2688, 1.2748, 1.2787-1.2791, 1.2848-1.2860. Once the price moves 20 pips in the right direction after opening a trade, you can set the stop-loss at breakeven. On Friday, there's nothing particularly noteworthy slated in the UK. Investors will be expecting to listen to Powell's remarks in the Jackson Hole symposium.     Basic trading rules: 1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal. 2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored. 3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading. 4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually. 5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel. 6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.   How to read charts: Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade. MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross. This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines. Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.    

EUR/USD On Tuesday, the euro continued to face pressure from Monday, even slightly more so due to the decline in commodity prices (crude oil down 2.1%) and as U.S. Treasury yields fell. German industrial production dropped in September by 1.4% compared with the previous month (-3.86% YoY), which fueled concerns about a European recession. Now we are waiting to see if other news will support the euro's upward movement. However, we don't expect to receive any news today or tomorrow, unless Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell or John Williams suggests an the end to the rate hike cycle. On the other hand, a certain event that could exert pressure on the dollar would be the so-called U.S. "government shutdown", as the emergency 45-day funding measure is set to end on November 16. Congressional leaders struggle to reach an agreement over the 2024 budget year limit. Take note that market participants may already be preparing for this event.   On the daily chart, the lower shadow carefully tested the support of the MACD line. Now, the euro has established a consolidation range between yesterday's low and the Fibonacci level at 1.0665-1.0750. Settling below 1.0665 could lead to a decline towards the price channel line around the psychological level of 1.0500, while a move above 1.0750 opens the target range of 1.0834/57. The uptrend remains intact. On the 4-hour chart, the bullish momentum remains intact. After retreating, the price is now staying above the indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator may form a bullish reversal from the neutral zero line.