false signals

On Monday, the GBP/USD pair managed to show even lower volatility than the EUR/USD pair, with only 37 pips. Therefore, there is no point in analyzing the movements because there simply weren't any.     The entire day was characterized by absolute flatness, which is not surprising given the complete absence of fundamental and macroeconomic events, as well as the status of a holiday in the US.   The downward trend remains intact, so nothing has changed for the pound and the dollar: the latter should continue to rise. There are currently no trend lines or channels due to the weak movement, but there is no doubt about the downtrend.     If you tried really hard you could find one signal on the 5-minute chart. At the beginning of the European trading session, the pair technically bounced off the range of 1.2351-1.2367 but failed to move down even by 20 pips, which is not surprising considering the overall volatility of 37 pips.   Beginners could have opened a short position based on this signal, but by the start of the US session, the pair hardly moved, so the trade could have been closed practically anywhere with zero profit. Trading tips on   Tuesday: As seen on the 30M chart, the GBP/USD pair continues to trade lower, but in the past few days, we have observed more low-volatility flatness than trending movement. We continue to expect further decline as we believe that the pound has not fallen sufficiently strong yet.   The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.2171-1.2179, 1.2245-1.2260, 1.2351-1.2367, 1.2420, 1.2470, 1.2507-1.2520, 1.2597-1.2616. When the price moves 20 pips in the right direction after opening a trade, a stop loss can be set at breakeven. On Tuesday, there are no important events or reports scheduled in the UK or the US.   We are in for another completely dull day. Volatility may be low again, and there may be a lack of intraday trending movement. Basic rules of the trading system: 1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal. 2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored. 3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading. 4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually. 5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel. 6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.   How to read charts: Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade. MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross.   This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines.   Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair.   Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable.   The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.    

Analyzing Tuesday's trades GBP/USD on 30M chart   On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair displayed a significant rebound, which is difficult to explain from a fundamental or macroeconomic perspective. In addition, a new descending trendline has formed, which clearly passes through the three recent price peaks.   Thus, despite the British currency's growth, the downtrend persists. There was no macro data or fundamental background in either the UK or the US. Therefore, it is quite difficult for us to explain what caused the dollar's decline. However, technical corrections are still relevant, so the sudden growth shouldn't be that surprising. So far, nothing bad has happened to the downtrend.   The pound may fall as early as Wednesday, especially considering that the pair has already started to fall by the end of Tuesday. Moreover, there will be significant events and reports in the last three days of the week, which may prompt traders to buy the dollar again, regardless of their positions.     Several trading signals were formed on the 5-minute chart on Tuesday. The levels 1.2351 and 1.2367 will be removed from the charts. The levels 1.2307 and 1.2386 have been added, but they were not included in the signal formation process. The first sell signal was near the 1.2351 level. The pair managed to move down by only 15 pips, resulting in a loss when the price settled above the 1.2367 level. This same signal should have been executed using long positions, and the pair subsequently rose to the 1.2420 level and settled above it. The long position should have been closed when the price settled below this level. Immediately after that, short positions should have been opened, which should have been manually closed closer to the evening. As a result, the first trade ended in a loss, but the other two were profitable. Overall, novice traders made a profit. Trading tips on Wednesday: As seen on the 30M chart, the GBP/USD pair is generally moving down, but over the past week, we have seen more of a flat than a trend-driven movement. I expect the pound to fall further since it has not fallen enough yet. Breaking the new trendline may temporarily change market sentiment to bullish. The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.2171-1.2179, 1.2245, 1.2307, 1.2386, 1.2420, 1.2470, 1.2507-1.2520, 1.2597-1.2616. When the price moves 20 pips in the right direction after opening a trade, a stop loss can be set at breakeven. On Wednesday, there are no important events or reports scheduled in the UK, while the US will release the JOLTS report on job openings.   The market will only react to this report if the actual value significantly deviates from the forecast. Basic rules of the trading system: 1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal.     2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored.     3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.     4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually.     5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.   6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.   How to read charts: Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade. MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross. This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines.   Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.    

The GBP/USD pair exhibited identical movements on Friday. It remained flat during the European trading session and experienced a decline during the American session. Therefore, there is no need to repeat the details. The strengthening of the US currency was naturally triggered by the Nonfarm Payrolls report, which significantly exceeded expectations.   However, the downward trendline (the second one) was previously breached, technically making the current trend upward. Nevertheless, we still don't see any reasons for the British currency to show growth in the medium-term perspective, so we expect a new decline in the pair. There were no important publications or events in the UK, and the pair demonstrated logically consistent movements on Friday.     On the 5-minute chart, the trading signals on Friday were not the best due to the flatness during the first half of the day. Only one signal was formed during that time, which was a buying signal near the level of 1.2520, and it should have been closed with the opening of the American trading session, as important data was expected to be released in the US, which could have caused the pair to move in any direction.   Immediately after the release of the data, a buying signal was formed in the range of 1.2507-1.2520, but it should have been ignored as the values of the US reports clearly favored the dollar. However, the next selling signal could and should have been traded. Eventually, the price dropped to the level of 1.2445, where short positions should have been closed. The profit amounted to approximately 40 pips.     Trading tips on Monday:   As seen on the 30M chart, the GBP/USD pair has ended its downward trend and started a new upward trend in the short-term perspective. We believe that the pound has not fallen enough to form a new strong uptrend, but the market may have a different opinion. There will be limited important statistics next week, so we recommend studying higher charts to understand the potential direction of the price. The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.2171-1.2179, 1.2245, 1.2307, 1.2386, 1.2445, 1.2507-1.2520, 1.2597-1.2616, 1.2659, 1.2697. When the price moves 20 pips in the right direction after opening a trade, a stop loss can be set at breakeven. On Monday, the UK has only scheduled the release of the Services PMI, which may provoke a reaction. In the US, there will also be business activity indices in the service sector, including the ISM index, which is considered important.   1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal. 2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored. 3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading. 4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually. 5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel. 6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.   How to read charts: Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade. MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross.   This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines. Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.  

No macro data scheduled for release on Tuesday. Only relatively unimportant reports on retail sales in the European Union and the Construction PMI in the UK can be highlighted.     However, it should be noted that the Construction PMI will be released in its second estimate, so there is practically no chance of a market reaction. Only if the actual value deviates significantly from the forecast, which rarely happens in second estimates. As for the retail sales report, it is not a particularly important one. If there is any reaction, it will be minimal.     There are no scheduled fundamental events for Tuesday, not even ones that are of secondary importance. Both currency pairs are currently in a suspended state as it is not entirely clear which direction they will move in this week. In the medium term, both pairs are expected to resume their decline, while in the short term, the downtrends have been broken, making a rise more likely. The fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop this week is very weak, so the movements can be weak and non-trending.     General conclusions: There will be hardly any important events on Tuesday, so we expect low volatility and weak intraday trend movements. There is a minimal probability that the market will react to the two reports mentioned earlier, but it is indeed very weak. It is unlikely that we will get an answer about the current trend in the market by Tuesday.   Basic trading rules: 1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal. 2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored. 3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading. 4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually. 5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel. 6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.   How to read charts: Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade. MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross. This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines. Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.  

What events may affect market sentiment on June 7? Analysis of fundamental data for beginners. On Wednesday, there will be very few macroeconomic reports. We can mention the US balance of trade report, but I can't even remember the last time this report provoked any market reaction. Therefore, we should probably expect the market to go into a "half-holiday" state again today. Volatility could range from 50 to 70 pips for both instruments, which makes it challenging to trade.   But there's nothing we can do if there are no news and reports, the market has no reason to be active. Analysis of fundamental events: Among the fundamental events, the only notable one is the speech by European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos. As we approach the June ECB meeting, his comments may help traders understand the central bank's plans for this month. However, traders are already aware of these things.   The probability of a new quarter point rate hike is 100%, and there are simply no other options. Therefore, even if de Guindos hints at further tightening, it will not support the euro or create pressure on it. It would be different if de Guindos outlines the future prospects for the ECB rate, as there has been recent information suggesting that the June hike may be the last in the tightening cycle. But for now, it's only rumors.     General conclusions: On Wednesday, there will be hardly any significant events, so we expect low volatility and weak intraday movements. Theoretically, de Guindos' speech could turn out to be interesting, but in reality, we have witnessed a large number of speeches by ECB committee members in the last two weeks. It is unlikely that de Guindos will reveal anything fundamentally new today.     Basic trading rules: 1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal. 2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored. 3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading. 4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually. 5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel. 6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.   How to read charts: Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade. MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross. This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines. Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair.   Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.    

Monday was uneventful. There are no significant economic reports scheduled for Monday and Tuesday, and all the fundamental events are of secondary importance. Monday was a low volume trading day and both pairs had a slight inclination to correct after a strong rally last week.   The same situation will probably persist today. Among the economic events, the only one worth mentioning is the report on the number of building permits issued in the United States. Even with an empty events calendar, such a report can still provoke a market reaction. But what kind of reaction exactly?   For example, on Friday, when volatility was also quite low, the US Consumer Sentiment Index triggered a 30-point reaction (approximately). We might witness the same reaction today. The main point is that volatility is still low, which makes it difficult to trade, regardless of whether there are reports or not.   Analysis of fundamental events: Among today's fundamental events, the speeches by European Central Bank representatives Andrea Enria, Luis de Guindos, and Elizabeth McCaul stand out. De Guindos has already spoken earlier, and Enria and McCaul clearly carry less weight in the eyes of traders compared to Schnabel and Lane.   Therefore, if traders did not react to yesterday's speeches, it is even less likely that they would today. In the US, you can look forward to the speeches of Federal Reserve officials John Williams and James Bullard. However, Bullard does not have voting rights this year, so his hawkish stance (which is expected) is unlikely to affect morale. As for John Williams, the US central bank held a meeting just last week and we have already heard all the necessary information.   Furthermore, on Wednesday and Thursday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speeches in Congress will attract much more attention. General conclusions: There are few important fundamental and economic events.   You can pay attention to the report on the number of building permits issued in the United States, as it is the only event that can truly provoke a reaction on a potentially low volume trading day. Basic trading rules: 1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal. 2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored. 3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading. 4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually. 5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.  

Monday was uneventful. There are no significant economic reports scheduled for Monday and Tuesday, and all the fundamental events are of secondary importance. Monday was a low volume trading day and both pairs had a slight inclination to correct after a strong rally last week.   The same situation will probably persist today. Among the economic events, the only one worth mentioning is the report on the number of building permits issued in the United States. Even with an empty events calendar, such a report can still provoke a market reaction. But what kind of reaction exactly? For example, on Friday, when volatility was also quite low, the US Consumer Sentiment Index triggered a 30-point reaction (approximately). We might witness the same reaction today.   The main point is that volatility is still low, which makes it difficult to trade, regardless of whether there are reports or not. Analysis of fundamental events: Among today's fundamental events, the speeches by European Central Bank representatives Andrea Enria, Luis de Guindos, and Elizabeth McCaul stand out. De Guindos has already spoken earlier, and Enria and McCaul clearly carry less weight in the eyes of traders compared to Schnabel and Lane. Therefore, if traders did not react to yesterday's speeches, it is even less likely that they would today. In the US, you can look forward to the speeches of Federal Reserve officials John Williams and James Bullard. However, Bullard does not have voting rights this year, so his hawkish stance (which is expected) is unlikely to affect morale.   As for John Williams, the US central bank held a meeting just last week and we have already heard all the necessary information. Furthermore, on Wednesday and Thursday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speeches in Congress will attract much more attention. General conclusions: There are few important fundamental and economic events.   You can pay attention to the report on the number of building permits issued in the United States, as it is the only event that can truly provoke a reaction on a potentially low volume trading day. Basic trading rules: 1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal. 2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored. 3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading. 4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually. 5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel. 6) If two key levels are too close to each   

Analyzing Monday's trades: GBP/USD on 30M chart     The GBP/USD pair managed to both rise and fall on Monday. The pound sterling corrected against Friday's decline, but in the second half of the day, it traded higher again, which corresponds to the current trend. There were no important economic reports in the UK or in the US.   Three representatives of the FOMC spoke in the US, and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is usually speaking in the UK around this time. For obvious reasons, Bailey's speech could not have any influence on the pair's movements during the day. And the FOMC members' speeches took place in the evening, so they also could not have provoked either the morning fall or the afternoon rise.   However, volatility was over 100 points, which is quite a lot for a Monday. The uptrend persists, and we have to point out that the growth is groundless, but there's nothing we can do if the market wishes to buy the pair, regardless of the fundamental background.   GBP/USD on 5M chart   Several entry points materialized on the 5M chart. First, the pair bounced twice from the level of 1.2801 (buy signals duplicated each other), but it only rose by 13 pips. It was impractical to work out these signals, as there was a high probability of a flat on Monday, and the Stop Loss on the deal should have been set below the level of 1.2779. When a sell signal was formed in the form of overcoming the area of 1.2779-1.2801, it was already clear that there would be no flat, so the deal could be worked out, but it did not bring profit, it closed at a break-even stop loss. The next buy signal could have been executed, and it would have brought a profit of 30 pips. In general, the pair changed its direction of movement several times on Monday, which is always bad for intraday trading.   Trading tips on Tuesday: As seen on the 30M chart, the GBP/USD pair continues to form a new uptrend. The pound can still rise even on those days when there is no fundamental background. Therefore, purely technically, GBP may extend its upward movement, but fundamental factors are still very doubtful. The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.2538, 1.2597-1.2605, 1.2653, 1.2688, 1.2748, 1.2779-1.2801, 1.2848-1.2860, 1.2913, 1.2981-1.2993. When the price moves 20 pips in the right direction after opening a trade, a stop loss can be set at breakeven. On Tuesday, the UK will release reports on jobless claims, unemployment, and wages. In the US, Federal Reserve official James Bullard will speak. Basic trading rules: 1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal.     2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored.     3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.     4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually.     5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.     6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.    

Analyzing Friday's trades: GBP/USD on 30M chart     On Friday, the GBP/USD pair traded flat with a slight bearish bias. The new, upcoming, ascending trend line has not been broken. At the moment, the price has only tested it. However, since the market has entered a flat phase, breaking this trend line will not be a strong signal for a trend reversal.   Of course, the British currency cannot continue to rise indefinitely, especially considering the lack of reasons and grounds for such a move. A correction should start sooner or later, but it is extremely difficult to predict when it will start because the market is currently hardly reacting to fundamental and macroeconomic factors, as confirmed by the entire week.   There was only one report on Friday, and it was the consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan in the US. This indicator unexpectedly showed a much stronger increase than forecasted and... triggered a 20-25 point rise in the dollar. As before, all reports in favor of the dollar were ignored, while any reason to buy the British pound was used to its fullest extent, resulting in a 200% increase.   GBP/USD on 5M chart A huge number of signals materialized on the 5M chart, while the movement was sideways and volatility was only 55 pips, which is very low for the pound. Therefore, almost any level that the price encountered automatically became a source of false signals. Thus, beginners could attempt to execute one or two signals during the European trading session. It is highly likely that the first one resulted in a small loss, while the second one was closed at breakeven when the stop loss was triggered. It was quite challenging to expect other results in a flat market. Trading tips on Monday: As seen on the 30M chart, the GBP/USD pair continues to show strong growth despite the Friday flat. Even if the price consolidates below the trend line, it does not mean that a downtrend is brewing, as traders remain bullish, and crossing the trend line during a flat phase is not a strong signal. The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.2779-1.2801, 1.2848-1.2860, 1.2913, 1.2981-1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3107, 1.3145, 1.3210, 1.3241, 1.3272. When the price moves 20 pips in the right direction after opening a trade, a stop loss can be set at breakeven.   On Monday, there are no important events lined up in the UK or the US, but it is extremely difficult to predict the price movement in conditions of extreme overbought levels and without any news. It could be a correction, a continuation of the rise, or a flat market.     Basic trading rules: 1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal. 2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored. 3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading. 4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually. 5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel. 6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.   How to read charts: Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them. Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade. MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross. This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines. Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

Overview of macroeconomic reports There are hardly any important reports on Friday. The euro area will release its final assessment of inflation for July, which is unlikely to differ from the preliminary assessment. Therefore, we do not expect any reaction to this data. The UK will publish a retail sales report, which is not that important. Therefore, we do not expect a strong market reaction to this report. Therefore, there will be no important events on Friday, and both pairs will likely continue their relatively weak movements. The pound is in a sideways channel, and the euro is in a weak downtrend.   Overview of fundamental events There is absolutely nothing to highlight among the fundamental events. No speeches by officials of the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, or the European Central Bank. Therefore, the market will focus on the macro data, but there are hardly any of those as well. It seems that we are in for another muted day.   Bottom line On Friday, we are expecting rather boring trades. We don't expect strong movements from either the pound or the euro, but that does not mean that they will not happen. Take note that the market can trade without reference to the fundamental and macroeconomic background. Main rules of the trading system: The strength of the signal is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce/drop or overcoming the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal. If two or more trades were opened near a certain level due to false signals, all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored. In a flat market, any currency pair can generate a lot of false signals or not generate them at all. But in any case, as soon as the first signs of a flat market are detected, it is better to stop trading. Trades are opened in the time interval between the beginning of the European session and the middle of the American one when all trades must be closed manually. On the 30-minute timeframe, you can trade based on MACD signals only on the condition of good volatility and provided that a trend is confirmed by the trend line or a trend channel. If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), they should be considered as an area of support or resistance. Comments on charts Support and resistance levels are levels that serve as targets when opening long or short positions. Take Profit orders can be placed around them. Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is preferable for trading now. The MACD (14,22,3) indicator, both histogram and signal line, is an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals. Important speeches and reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is recommended to trade with utmost caution or to exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money management is the key to success in trading over a long period of time.  

Overview of macroeconomic reports   On Thursday, no significant reports lined up for the UK, the European Union, or Germany. The US will publish reports on initial jobless claims and durable-goods orders. Unemployment claims is a relatively weak indicator simply because it is published weekly, and deviations from forecasts are rare. Since there are no deviations, there is no market reaction. Durable goods orders are more important as it reflects the change in purchase volumes of expensive category goods, such as cars, real estate, or major appliances. But the same thing applies here, it is important for the values to deviate from forecasts. If there is none, there's also no reaction. If there is, then we can expect a strong market reaction.   Overview of fundamental events There is absolutely nothing to highlight among Thursday's fundamental events. There are no speeches from officials of the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and the Bank of England. However, the Jackson Hole Symposium is about to begin. Nonetheless, all the most important speeches are scheduled for Friday, and today, there's not much to focus on.     Bottom line On Thursday, beginners might only focus on the two US reports. We don't know if they will trigger a market reaction, but at the same time, there are no other events. The movement patterns of the two main currency pairs are unlikely to change. For the euro, it's a downtrend, and for the pound, it's a flat trend. Main rules of the trading system: The strength of the signal is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce/drop or overcoming the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal. If two or more trades were opened near a certain level due to false signals, all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored. In a flat market, any currency pair can generate a lot of false signals or not generate them at all. But in any case, as soon as the first signs of a flat market are detected, it is better to stop trading. Trades are opened in the time interval between the beginning of the European session and the middle of the American one when all trades must be closed manually. On the 30-minute timeframe, you can trade based on MACD signals only on the condition of good volatility and provided that a trend is confirmed by the trend line or a trend channel. If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), they should be considered as an area of support or resistance. Comments on charts Support and resistance levels are levels that serve as targets when opening long or short positions. Take Profit orders can be placed around them. Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is preferable for trading now. The MACD (14,22,3) indicator, both histogram and signal line, is an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals. Important speeches and reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is recommended to trade with utmost caution or to exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement. Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money management is the key to success in trading over a long period of time.    

Analysis of GBP/USD 5M   GBP/USD also experienced a minor downward correction on Wednesday, while overall volatility reached 100 pips. This is already something to talk about. Unfortunately, during the European session, movements left much to be desired. In general, we witnessed a flat, and the pair only started to move normally during the U.S. session when three more or less significant reports were published in America. As we mentioned before, reports on durable goods orders and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment turned out to be weaker than expected. However, the third report on initial jobless claims was better than the market's expectations. In our opinion, one positive report could not outweigh two negatives, so we believe that the British pound fell on Wednesday due to the pair's overbought condition. Speaking of trading signals, the flat condition during the European session did not bring any profit. During the first half of the day, four signals were formed around the level of 1.2520, and they were all false signals because the pair, essentially, stood still. Therefore, when the fifth signal was formed around the level of 1.2520 during the U.S. session, it should not have been executed. And the best movement of the day began at this time. Traders could open 1-2 trades in the morning, incurring a small loss, and could then work out the rebound from the level of 1.2445, which allowed them to offset this loss. However, there was no substantial profit.